WorldWideScience

Sample records for statistically significant trend

  1. Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

    KAUST Repository

    Mahajan, Salil

    2011-05-11

    Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall\\'s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  2. Statistical trend analysis methodology for rare failures in changing technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.; Hoffmann, H.J.

    1983-07-01

    A methodology for a statistical trend analysis (STA) in failure rates is presented. It applies primarily to relatively rare events in changing technologies or components. The formulation is more general and the assumptions are less restrictive than in a previously published version. Relations of the statistical analysis and probabilistic assessment (PRA) are discussed in terms of categorization of decisions for action following particular failure events. The significance of tentatively identified trends is explored. In addition to statistical tests for trend significance, a combination of STA and PRA results quantifying the trend complement is proposed. The STA approach is compared with other concepts for trend characterization. (orig.)

  3. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  4. Macro-indicators of citation impacts of six prolific countries: InCites data and the statistical significance of trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lutz Bornmann

    Full Text Available Using the InCites tool of Thomson Reuters, this study compares normalized citation impact values calculated for China, Japan, France, Germany, United States, and the UK throughout the time period from 1981 to 2010. InCites offers a unique opportunity to study the normalized citation impacts of countries using (i a long publication window (1981 to 2010, (ii a differentiation in (broad or more narrow subject areas, and (iii allowing for the use of statistical procedures in order to obtain an insightful investigation of national citation trends across the years. Using four broad categories, our results show significantly increasing trends in citation impact values for France, the UK, and especially Germany across the last thirty years in all areas. The citation impact of papers from China is still at a relatively low level (mostly below the world average, but the country follows an increasing trend line. The USA exhibits a stable pattern of high citation impact values across the years. With small impact differences between the publication years, the US trend is increasing in engineering and technology but decreasing in medical and health sciences as well as in agricultural sciences. Similar to the USA, Japan follows increasing as well as decreasing trends in different subject areas, but the variability across the years is small. In most of the years, papers from Japan perform below or approximately at the world average in each subject area.

  5. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  6. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, (Finland); Poern, K. [Poern Consulting, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods. 14 refs, 10 figs.

  7. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods

  8. Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

  9. Statistical trend of radiation chemical studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Hiroshi

    1980-01-01

    In the field of radiation chemistry, over 1,000 reports are published year after year. Attempt has been made to review the trends in this field for more than five years, by looking through the lists of papers statistically. As for the period from 1974 to 1978, Annual Cumulation with Keyword and Author Indexes in the Biweekly List of Papers on Radiation Chemistry was referred to. For 1979, because of the unavailability of the Cumulation, Chemical Abstracts Search by Japan Information Center of Science and Technology was referred to. The contents are as follows: how far radiation chemistry is studied, what the trends of radiation chemistry is in recent years, who contributes to the advance of radiation chemistry, and where, the trend radiation chemistry takes in 1979. (J.P.N.)

  10. Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

    2016-04-01

    The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

  11. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature ... CGCM3; HadCM3; modified Mann–Kendall test; statistical analysis; Sutlej basin. ... Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 ...

  12. Statistical significance of cis-regulatory modules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Andrew D

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is becoming increasingly important for researchers to be able to scan through large genomic regions for transcription factor binding sites or clusters of binding sites forming cis-regulatory modules. Correspondingly, there has been a push to develop algorithms for the rapid detection and assessment of cis-regulatory modules. While various algorithms for this purpose have been introduced, most are not well suited for rapid, genome scale scanning. Results We introduce methods designed for the detection and statistical evaluation of cis-regulatory modules, modeled as either clusters of individual binding sites or as combinations of sites with constrained organization. In order to determine the statistical significance of module sites, we first need a method to determine the statistical significance of single transcription factor binding site matches. We introduce a straightforward method of estimating the statistical significance of single site matches using a database of known promoters to produce data structures that can be used to estimate p-values for binding site matches. We next introduce a technique to calculate the statistical significance of the arrangement of binding sites within a module using a max-gap model. If the module scanned for has defined organizational parameters, the probability of the module is corrected to account for organizational constraints. The statistical significance of single site matches and the architecture of sites within the module can be combined to provide an overall estimation of statistical significance of cis-regulatory module sites. Conclusion The methods introduced in this paper allow for the detection and statistical evaluation of single transcription factor binding sites and cis-regulatory modules. The features described are implemented in the Search Tool for Occurrences of Regulatory Motifs (STORM and MODSTORM software.

  13. International Conference on Trends and Perspectives in Linear Statistical Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rosen, Dietrich

    2018-01-01

    This volume features selected contributions on a variety of topics related to linear statistical inference. The peer-reviewed papers from the International Conference on Trends and Perspectives in Linear Statistical Inference (LinStat 2016) held in Istanbul, Turkey, 22-25 August 2016, cover topics in both theoretical and applied statistics, such as linear models, high-dimensional statistics, computational statistics, the design of experiments, and multivariate analysis. The book is intended for statisticians, Ph.D. students, and professionals who are interested in statistical inference. .

  14. Statistical significance of epidemiological data. Seminar: Evaluation of epidemiological studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, K.H.

    1993-01-01

    In stochastic damages, the numbers of events, e.g. the persons who are affected by or have died of cancer, and thus the relative frequencies (incidence or mortality) are binomially distributed random variables. Their statistical fluctuations can be characterized by confidence intervals. For epidemiologic questions, especially for the analysis of stochastic damages in the low dose range, the following issues are interesting: - Is a sample (a group of persons) with a definite observed damage frequency part of the whole population? - Is an observed frequency difference between two groups of persons random or statistically significant? - Is an observed increase or decrease of the frequencies with increasing dose random or statistically significant and how large is the regression coefficient (= risk coefficient) in this case? These problems can be solved by sttistical tests. So-called distribution-free tests and tests which are not bound to the supposition of normal distribution are of particular interest, such as: - χ 2 -independence test (test in contingency tables); - Fisher-Yates-test; - trend test according to Cochran; - rank correlation test given by Spearman. These tests are explained in terms of selected epidemiologic data, e.g. of leukaemia clusters, of the cancer mortality of the Japanese A-bomb survivors especially in the low dose range as well as on the sample of the cancer mortality in the high background area in Yangjiang (China). (orig.) [de

  15. Publication of statistically significant research findings in prosthodontics & implant dentistry in the context of other dental specialties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Kloukos, Dimitrios; Petridis, Haralampos; Pandis, Nikolaos

    2015-10-01

    To assess the hypothesis that there is excessive reporting of statistically significant studies published in prosthodontic and implantology journals, which could indicate selective publication. The last 30 issues of 9 journals in prosthodontics and implant dentistry were hand-searched for articles with statistical analyses. The percentages of significant and non-significant results were tabulated by parameter of interest. Univariable/multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify possible predictors of reporting statistically significance findings. The results of this study were compared with similar studies in dentistry with random-effects meta-analyses. From the 2323 included studies 71% of them reported statistically significant results, with the significant results ranging from 47% to 86%. Multivariable modeling identified that geographical area and involvement of statistician were predictors of statistically significant results. Compared to interventional studies, the odds that in vitro and observational studies would report statistically significant results was increased by 1.20 times (OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.66-2.92) and 0.35 times (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.05-1.73), respectively. The probability of statistically significant results from randomized controlled trials was significantly lower compared to various study designs (difference: 30%, 95% CI: 11-49%). Likewise the probability of statistically significant results in prosthodontics and implant dentistry was lower compared to other dental specialties, but this result did not reach statistical significant (P>0.05). The majority of studies identified in the fields of prosthodontics and implant dentistry presented statistically significant results. The same trend existed in publications of other specialties in dentistry. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian; Winkel, Per

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does...... not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore...... of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a 'null' effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance...

  17. Statistical Trends and Developments within Inclusive Education in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakiroglu, Orhan; Melekoglu, Macid Ayhan

    2014-01-01

    The education of students with special needs in an inclusive environment is becoming more widespread throughout the world. Similarly, in Turkey, the inclusion of students with disabilities has also improved. However, current statistical trends and developments within inclusive education are not well known. The purpose of this study is to provide a…

  18. The insignificance of statistical significance testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Douglas H.

    1999-01-01

    Despite their use in scientific journals such as The Journal of Wildlife Management, statistical hypothesis tests add very little value to the products of research. Indeed, they frequently confuse the interpretation of data. This paper describes how statistical hypothesis tests are often viewed, and then contrasts that interpretation with the correct one. I discuss the arbitrariness of P-values, conclusions that the null hypothesis is true, power analysis, and distinctions between statistical and biological significance. Statistical hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis about the properties of a population is almost always known a priori to be false, is contrasted with scientific hypothesis testing, which examines a credible null hypothesis about phenomena in nature. More meaningful alternatives are briefly outlined, including estimation and confidence intervals for determining the importance of factors, decision theory for guiding actions in the face of uncertainty, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and other statistical practices.

  19. Statistical Analysis of Development Trends in Global Renewable Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina D. Simonova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the economic and statistical analysis of industries associated with the use of renewable energy sources in several countries. The dynamic development and implementation of technologies based on renewable energy sources (hereinafter RES is the defining trend of world energy development. The uneven distribution of hydrocarbon reserves, increasing demand of developing countries and environmental risks associated with the production and consumption of fossil resources has led to an increasing interest of many states to this field. Creating low-carbon economies involves the implementation of plans to increase the proportion of clean energy through renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The priority of this sector is a characteristic feature of modern development of developed (USA, EU, Japan and emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, etc., as evidenced by the inclusion of the development of this segment in the state energy strategies and the revision of existing approaches to energy security. The analysis of the use of renewable energy, its contribution to value added of countries-producers is of a particular interest. Over the last decade, the share of energy produced from renewable sources in the energy balances of the world's largest economies increased significantly. Every year the number of power generating capacity based on renewable energy is growing, especially, this trend is apparent in China, USA and European Union countries. There is a significant increase in direct investment in renewable energy. The total investment over the past ten years increased by 5.6 times. The most rapidly developing kinds are solar energy and wind power.

  20. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  1. The World of Organic Agriculture – Statistics and Emerging Trends (Session at the BIOFACH 2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Arbenz, Markus; Willer, Helga; Lernoud, Julia; Huber, Beate; Amarjit, Sahota

    2015-01-01

    The World of Organic Agriculture – Statistics and Emerging Trends (Session at the BIOFACH 2015) Presentations - Introduction (Markus Arbenz) - Organic Agriculture Worldwide: Current Statistics (Helga Willer, Julia Lernoud) - The World of Organic Agriculture: Regulations and Certification Emerging Trends 2015 (Beate Huber, Christiane Mannigel) - Global survey on Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) (Julia Lernoud, Helga Willer) - Global Organic Food & Drink: Market Update...

  2. Significance levels for studies with correlated test statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jianxin; Levinson, Douglas F; Whittemore, Alice S

    2008-07-01

    When testing large numbers of null hypotheses, one needs to assess the evidence against the global null hypothesis that none of the hypotheses is false. Such evidence typically is based on the test statistic of the largest magnitude, whose statistical significance is evaluated by permuting the sample units to simulate its null distribution. Efron (2007) has noted that correlation among the test statistics can induce substantial interstudy variation in the shapes of their histograms, which may cause misleading tail counts. Here, we show that permutation-based estimates of the overall significance level also can be misleading when the test statistics are correlated. We propose that such estimates be conditioned on a simple measure of the spread of the observed histogram, and we provide a method for obtaining conditional significance levels. We justify this conditioning using the conditionality principle described by Cox and Hinkley (1974). Application of the method to gene expression data illustrates the circumstances when conditional significance levels are needed.

  3. Statistical significant changes in ground thermal conditions of alpine Austria during the last decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Longer data series (e.g. >10 a) of ground temperatures in alpine regions are helpful to improve the understanding regarding the effects of present climate change on distribution and thermal characteristics of seasonal frost- and permafrost-affected areas. Beginning in 2004 - and more intensively since 2006 - a permafrost and seasonal frost monitoring network was established in Central and Eastern Austria by the University of Graz. This network consists of c.60 ground temperature (surface and near-surface) monitoring sites which are located at 1922-3002 m a.s.l., at latitude 46°55'-47°22'N and at longitude 12°44'-14°41'E. These data allow conclusions about general ground thermal conditions, potential permafrost occurrence, trend during the observation period, and regional pattern of changes. Calculations and analyses of several different temperature-related parameters were accomplished. At an annual scale a region-wide statistical significant warming during the observation period was revealed by e.g. an increase in mean annual temperature values (mean, maximum) or the significant lowering of the surface frost number (F+). At a seasonal scale no significant trend of any temperature-related parameter was in most cases revealed for spring (MAM) and autumn (SON). Winter (DJF) shows only a weak warming. In contrast, the summer (JJA) season reveals in general a significant warming as confirmed by several different temperature-related parameters such as e.g. mean seasonal temperature, number of thawing degree days, number of freezing degree days, or days without night frost. On a monthly basis August shows the statistically most robust and strongest warming of all months, although regional differences occur. Despite the fact that the general ground temperature warming during the last decade is confirmed by the field data in the study region, complications in trend analyses arise by temperature anomalies (e.g. warm winter 2006/07) or substantial variations in the winter

  4. Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

    2013-01-01

    controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice......This article raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators by Opthof and Leydesdorff (2010). Statistical significance tests are highly...... argue that applying statistical significance tests and mechanically adhering to their results are highly problematic and detrimental to critical thinking. We claim that the use of such tests do not provide any advantages in relation to deciding whether differences between citation indicators...

  5. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  6. Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

    2018-05-01

    Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

  7. Statistically significant relational data mining :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Jonathan W.; Leung, Vitus Joseph; Phillips, Cynthia Ann; Pinar, Ali; Robinson, David Gerald; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Bhowmick, Sanjukta; Casleton, Emily; Kaiser, Mark; Nordman, Daniel J.; Wilson, Alyson G.

    2014-02-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.

  8. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: "P" values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priya Ranganathan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ′P′ value, explain the importance of ′confidence intervals′ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper

  9. Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

    2012-01-01

    The Concho River Basin is part of the upper Colorado River Basin in west-central Texas. Monotonic trends in streamflow statistics during various time intervals from 1916-2009 were analyzed to determine whether substantial changes in selected streamflow statistics have occurred within the Concho River Basin. Two types of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data comprise the foundational data for this report: (1) daily mean discharge (daily discharge) and (2) annual instantaneous peak discharge. Trend directions are reported for the following streamflow statistics: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual 1-day minimum discharge, (3) annual 7-day minimum discharge, (4) annual maximum daily discharge, and (5) annual instantaneous peak discharge.

  10. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  11. Trends of significant operating events in assessing programmatic issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanning, W.D.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes one part of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) program for evaluating significant events and the process for identifying trends that may be indicative of programmatic weaknesses at operating nuclear power plants. A database management system was developed to permit analyses of significant operating events, events of potential safety significance, and certain reactor scrams. The analyses were based on events and problems reported by telephone to the NRC by licensees within hours of the events and, therefore, provided current operational data trend information. The regulatory requirements for reporting significant events, the screening criteria, and the process for identifying outliers for formal evaluation are described herein. This process contributed to an understanding of the underlying causes for events and problems. Examples are included of operating experience assessments that identified plants with a poor operating experience history that was attributable to procedural inadequacies, operator training deficiencies, inadequate root cause analysis, and inadequate control and planning of activities

  12. Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

  13. Trends in violent crime: a comparison between police statistics and victimization surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittebrood, Karin; Junger, Marianne

    2002-01-01

    Usually, two measures are used to describetrends in violent crime: police statistics andvictimization surveys. Both are available inthe Netherlands. In this contribution, we willfirst provide a description of the trends inviolent crime. It appears that both types ofstatistics reflect a different

  14. A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

    2014-04-01

    Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

  15. Health significance and statistical uncertainty. The value of P-value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consonni, Dario; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto

    2017-10-27

    The P-value is widely used as a summary statistics of scientific results. Unfortunately, there is a widespread tendency to dichotomize its value in "P0.05" ("statistically not significant"), with the former implying a "positive" result and the latter a "negative" one. To show the unsuitability of such an approach when evaluating the effects of environmental and occupational risk factors. We provide examples of distorted use of P-value and of the negative consequences for science and public health of such a black-and-white vision. The rigid interpretation of P-value as a dichotomy favors the confusion between health relevance and statistical significance, discourages thoughtful thinking, and distorts attention from what really matters, the health significance. A much better way to express and communicate scientific results involves reporting effect estimates (e.g., risks, risks ratios or risk differences) and their confidence intervals (CI), which summarize and convey both health significance and statistical uncertainty. Unfortunately, many researchers do not usually consider the whole interval of CI but only examine if it includes the null-value, therefore degrading this procedure to the same P-value dichotomy (statistical significance or not). In reporting statistical results of scientific research present effects estimates with their confidence intervals and do not qualify the P-value as "significant" or "not significant".

  16. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “P” values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958

  17. Understanding the Sampling Distribution and Its Use in Testing Statistical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Nancy A.

    Despite the increasing criticism of statistical significance testing by researchers, particularly in the publication of the 1994 American Psychological Association's style manual, statistical significance test results are still popular in journal articles. For this reason, it remains important to understand the logic of inferential statistics. A…

  18. Data and statistical methods for analysis of trends and patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.; Gentillon, C.D.; Wilson, G.E.

    1992-11-01

    This report summarizes topics considered at a working meeting on data and statistical methods for analysis of trends and patterns in US commercial nuclear power plants. This meeting was sponsored by the Office of Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Three data sets are briefly described: Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS), Licensee Event Report (LER) data, and Performance Indicator data. Two types of study are emphasized: screening studies, to see if any trends or patterns appear to be present; and detailed studies, which are more concerned with checking the analysis assumptions, modeling any patterns that are present, and searching for causes. A prescription is given for a screening study, and ideas are suggested for a detailed study, when the data take of any of three forms: counts of events per time, counts of events per demand, and non-event data

  19. Trends in statistical methods in articles published in Archives of Plastic Surgery between 2012 and 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Kyunghwa; Jung, Inkyung

    2018-05-01

    This review article presents an assessment of trends in statistical methods and an evaluation of their appropriateness in articles published in the Archives of Plastic Surgery (APS) from 2012 to 2017. We reviewed 388 original articles published in APS between 2012 and 2017. We categorized the articles that used statistical methods according to the type of statistical method, the number of statistical methods, and the type of statistical software used. We checked whether there were errors in the description of statistical methods and results. A total of 230 articles (59.3%) published in APS between 2012 and 2017 used one or more statistical method. Within these articles, there were 261 applications of statistical methods with continuous or ordinal outcomes, and 139 applications of statistical methods with categorical outcome. The Pearson chi-square test (17.4%) and the Mann-Whitney U test (14.4%) were the most frequently used methods. Errors in describing statistical methods and results were found in 133 of the 230 articles (57.8%). Inadequate description of P-values was the most common error (39.1%). Among the 230 articles that used statistical methods, 71.7% provided details about the statistical software programs used for the analyses. SPSS was predominantly used in the articles that presented statistical analyses. We found that the use of statistical methods in APS has increased over the last 6 years. It seems that researchers have been paying more attention to the proper use of statistics in recent years. It is expected that these positive trends will continue in APS.

  20. Quantifying spatial and temporal trends in beach-dune volumetric changes using spatial statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eamer, Jordan B. R.; Walker, Ian J.

    2013-06-01

    Spatial statistics are generally underutilized in coastal geomorphology, despite offering great potential for identifying and quantifying spatial-temporal trends in landscape morphodynamics. In particular, local Moran's Ii provides a statistical framework for detecting clusters of significant change in an attribute (e.g., surface erosion or deposition) and quantifying how this changes over space and time. This study analyzes and interprets spatial-temporal patterns in sediment volume changes in a beach-foredune-transgressive dune complex following removal of invasive marram grass (Ammophila spp.). Results are derived by detecting significant changes in post-removal repeat DEMs derived from topographic surveys and airborne LiDAR. The study site was separated into discrete, linked geomorphic units (beach, foredune, transgressive dune complex) to facilitate sub-landscape scale analysis of volumetric change and sediment budget responses. Difference surfaces derived from a pixel-subtraction algorithm between interval DEMs and the LiDAR baseline DEM were filtered using the local Moran's Ii method and two different spatial weights (1.5 and 5 m) to detect statistically significant change. Moran's Ii results were compared with those derived from a more spatially uniform statistical method that uses a simpler student's t distribution threshold for change detection. Morphodynamic patterns and volumetric estimates were similar between the uniform geostatistical method and Moran's Ii at a spatial weight of 5 m while the smaller spatial weight (1.5 m) consistently indicated volumetric changes of less magnitude. The larger 5 m spatial weight was most representative of broader site morphodynamics and spatial patterns while the smaller spatial weight provided volumetric changes consistent with field observations. All methods showed foredune deflation immediately following removal with increased sediment volumes into the spring via deposition at the crest and on lobes in the lee

  1. Properties of incident reporting systems in relation to statistical trend and pattern analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalfsbeek, H.W.; Arsenis, S.P.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the properties deemed desirable for an incident reporting system in order to render it useful for extracting valid statistical trend and pattern information. The perspective under which a data collection system is seen in this paper is the following: data are essentially gathered on a set of variables describing an event or incident (the items featuring on a reporting format) in order to learn about (multiple) dependencies (called interactions) between these variables. Hence, the necessary features of the data source are highlighted and potential problem sources limiting the validity of the results to be obtained are identified. In this frame, important issues are the reporting completeness, related to the reporting criteria and reporting frequency, and of course the reporting contents and quality. The choice of the report items (the variables) and their categorization (code dictionary) may influence (bias) the insights gained from trend and pattern analyses, as may the presence or absence of a structure for correlating the reported issues within an incident. The issues addressed in this paper are brought in relation to some real world reporting systems on safety related events in Nuclear Power Plants, so that their possibilities and limitations with regard to statistical trend and pattern analysis become manifest

  2. Swiss solar power statistics 2007 - Significant expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hostettler, T.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents and discusses the 2007 statistics for solar power in Switzerland. A significant number of new installations is noted as is the high production figures from newer installations. The basics behind the compilation of the Swiss solar power statistics are briefly reviewed and an overview for the period 1989 to 2007 is presented which includes figures on the number of photovoltaic plant in service and installed peak power. Typical production figures in kilowatt-hours (kWh) per installed kilowatt-peak power (kWp) are presented and discussed for installations of various sizes. Increased production after inverter replacement in older installations is noted. Finally, the general political situation in Switzerland as far as solar power is concerned are briefly discussed as are international developments.

  3. Test for the statistical significance of differences between ROC curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metz, C.E.; Kronman, H.B.

    1979-01-01

    A test for the statistical significance of observed differences between two measured Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves has been designed and evaluated. The set of observer response data for each ROC curve is assumed to be independent and to arise from a ROC curve having a form which, in the absence of statistical fluctuations in the response data, graphs as a straight line on double normal-deviate axes. To test the significance of an apparent difference between two measured ROC curves, maximum likelihood estimates of the two parameters of each curve and the associated parameter variances and covariance are calculated from the corresponding set of observer response data. An approximate Chi-square statistic with two degrees of freedom is then constructed from the differences between the parameters estimated for each ROC curve and from the variances and covariances of these estimates. This statistic is known to be truly Chi-square distributed only in the limit of large numbers of trials in the observer performance experiments. Performance of the statistic for data arising from a limited number of experimental trials was evaluated. Independent sets of rating scale data arising from the same underlying ROC curve were paired, and the fraction of differences found (falsely) significant was compared to the significance level, α, used with the test. Although test performance was found to be somewhat dependent on both the number of trials in the data and the position of the underlying ROC curve in the ROC space, the results for various significance levels showed the test to be reliable under practical experimental conditions

  4. De-trending of wind speed variance based on first-order and second-order statistical moments only

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2014-01-01

    The lack of efficient methods for de-trending of wind speed resource data may lead to erroneous wind turbine fatigue and ultimate load predictions. The present paper presents two models, which quantify the effect of an assumed linear trend on wind speed standard deviations as based on available...... statistical data only. The first model is a pure time series analysis approach, which quantifies the effect of non-stationary characteristics of ensemble mean wind speeds on the estimated wind speed standard deviations as based on mean wind speed statistics only. This model is applicable to statistics...... of arbitrary types of time series. The second model uses the full set of information and includes thus additionally observed wind speed standard deviations to estimate the effect of ensemble mean non-stationarities on wind speed standard deviations. This model takes advantage of a simple physical relationship...

  5. Lining up higher education. Trends in selected higher education statistics in ten Western countries (IHEM Trendreport 2004)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaiser, Franciscus; Hillegers, Harm; Legro, Iwen

    2005-01-01

    In this fourth IHEM trend report, key statistical issues like student flows (new entrants, enrolment, and graduation, broken down by discipline and gender), rates of participation, staff, and finance are presented for the ten IHEM core countries over the period 1995 till recent. National statistical

  6. On detection and assessment of statistical significance of Genomic Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaudhuri Probal

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many of the available methods for detecting Genomic Islands (GIs in prokaryotic genomes use markers such as transposons, proximal tRNAs, flanking repeats etc., or they use other supervised techniques requiring training datasets. Most of these methods are primarily based on the biases in GC content or codon and amino acid usage of the islands. However, these methods either do not use any formal statistical test of significance or use statistical tests for which the critical values and the P-values are not adequately justified. We propose a method, which is unsupervised in nature and uses Monte-Carlo statistical tests based on randomly selected segments of a chromosome. Such tests are supported by precise statistical distribution theory, and consequently, the resulting P-values are quite reliable for making the decision. Results Our algorithm (named Design-Island, an acronym for Detection of Statistically Significant Genomic Island runs in two phases. Some 'putative GIs' are identified in the first phase, and those are refined into smaller segments containing horizontally acquired genes in the refinement phase. This method is applied to Salmonella typhi CT18 genome leading to the discovery of several new pathogenicity, antibiotic resistance and metabolic islands that were missed by earlier methods. Many of these islands contain mobile genetic elements like phage-mediated genes, transposons, integrase and IS elements confirming their horizontal acquirement. Conclusion The proposed method is based on statistical tests supported by precise distribution theory and reliable P-values along with a technique for visualizing statistically significant islands. The performance of our method is better than many other well known methods in terms of their sensitivity and accuracy, and in terms of specificity, it is comparable to other methods.

  7. RepoSTAR. A Code package for control and evaluation of statistical calculations with the program package RepoTREND; RepoSTAR. Ein Codepaket zur Steuerung und Auswertung statistischer Rechenlaeufe mit dem Programmpaket RepoTREND

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2016-05-15

    The program package RepoTREND for the integrated long terms safety analysis of final repositories allows besides deterministic studies of defined problems also statistical or probabilistic analyses. Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are realized in the program package repoTREND by a specific statistic frame called RepoSTAR. The report covers the following issues: concept, sampling and data supply of single simulations, evaluation of statistical calculations with the program RepoSUN.

  8. Increasing the statistical significance of entanglement detection in experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungnitsch, Bastian; Niekamp, Sönke; Kleinmann, Matthias; Gühne, Otfried; Lu, He; Gao, Wei-Bo; Chen, Yu-Ao; Chen, Zeng-Bing; Pan, Jian-Wei

    2010-05-28

    Entanglement is often verified by a violation of an inequality like a Bell inequality or an entanglement witness. Considerable effort has been devoted to the optimization of such inequalities in order to obtain a high violation. We demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that such an optimization does not necessarily lead to a better entanglement test, if the statistical error is taken into account. Theoretically, we show for different error models that reducing the violation of an inequality can improve the significance. Experimentally, we observe this phenomenon in a four-photon experiment, testing the Mermin and Ardehali inequality for different levels of noise. Furthermore, we provide a way to develop entanglement tests with high statistical significance.

  9. Testing the Difference of Correlated Agreement Coefficients for Statistical Significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwet, Kilem L.

    2016-01-01

    This article addresses the problem of testing the difference between two correlated agreement coefficients for statistical significance. A number of authors have proposed methods for testing the difference between two correlated kappa coefficients, which require either the use of resampling methods or the use of advanced statistical modeling…

  10. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Quintero

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats.Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions.Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  11. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  12. Distribution-level electricity reliability: Temporal trends using statistical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eto, Joseph H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Larsen, Peter; Todd, Annika; Fisher, Emily

    2012-01-01

    This paper helps to address the lack of comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. We find that reported annual average duration and annual average frequency of power interruptions have been increasing over time at a rate of approximately 2% annually. We find that, independent of this trend, installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system is correlated with an increase in the reported annual average duration of power interruptions. We also find that reliance on IEEE Standard 1366-2003 is correlated with higher reported reliability compared to reported reliability not using the IEEE standard. However, we caution that we cannot attribute reliance on the IEEE standard as having caused or led to higher reported reliability because we could not separate the effect of reliance on the IEEE standard from other utility-specific factors that may be correlated with reliance on the IEEE standard. - Highlights: ► We assess trends in electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities. ► We use rigorous statistical techniques to account for utility-specific differences. ► We find modest declines in reliability analyzing interruption duration and frequency experienced by utility customers. ► Installation or upgrade of an OMS is correlated to an increase in reported duration of power interruptions. ► We find reliance in IEEE Standard 1366 is correlated with higher reported reliability.

  13. Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farber, G.; Matthes, H. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koln (Germany)

    2001-07-01

    In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

  14. Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, G.; Matthes, H.

    2001-01-01

    In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

  15. Statistical analysis and trends of wet snow avalanches in the French Alps over the period 1959-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naaim, Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    Since an avalanche contains a significant proportion of wet snow, its characteristics and its behavior change significantly (heterogeneous and polydisperse). Even if on a steep given slope, wet snow avalanches are slow. They can flow over gentle slopes and reach the same extensions as dry avalanches. To highlight the link between climate warming and the proliferation of wet snow avlanches, we crossed two well-documented avalanche databases: the permanent avalanche chronicle (EPA) and the meteorological re-analyzes. For each avalanche referenced in EPA, a moisture index I is buit. It represents the ratio of the thickness of the wet snow layer to the total snow thickness, at the date of the avalanche on the concerned massif at 2400 m.a.s.l. The daily and annual proportion of avalanches exceeding a given threshold of I are calculated for each massif of the French alps. The statistical distribution of wet avalanches per massif is calculated over the period 1959-2009. The statistical quantities are also calculated over two successive periods of the same duration 1959-1984 and 1984-2009, and the annual evolution of the proportion of wet avalanches is studied using time-series tools to detect potential rupture or trends. This study showed that about 77% of avalanches on the French alpine massif mobilize dry snow. The probability of having an avalanche of a moisture index greater than 10 % in a given year is 0.2. This value varies from one massif to another. The analysis between the two successive periods showed a significant growth of wet avalanches on 20 massifs and a decrease on 3 massifs. The study of time-series confirmed these trends, which are of the inter-annual variability level.

  16. Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

    2017-04-04

    Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The

  17. Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

    2007-12-01

    Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

  18. Understanding Statistics - Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annual reports of U.S. cancer statistics including new cases, deaths, trends, survival, prevalence, lifetime risk, and progress toward Healthy People targets, plus statistical summaries for a number of common cancer types.

  19. Significance analysis of lexical bias in microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falkow Stanley

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genes that are determined to be significantly differentially regulated in microarray analyses often appear to have functional commonalities, such as being components of the same biochemical pathway. This results in certain words being under- or overrepresented in the list of genes. Distinguishing between biologically meaningful trends and artifacts of annotation and analysis procedures is of the utmost importance, as only true biological trends are of interest for further experimentation. A number of sophisticated methods for identification of significant lexical trends are currently available, but these methods are generally too cumbersome for practical use by most microarray users. Results We have developed a tool, LACK, for calculating the statistical significance of apparent lexical bias in microarray datasets. The frequency of a user-specified list of search terms in a list of genes which are differentially regulated is assessed for statistical significance by comparison to randomly generated datasets. The simplicity of the input files and user interface targets the average microarray user who wishes to have a statistical measure of apparent lexical trends in analyzed datasets without the need for bioinformatics skills. The software is available as Perl source or a Windows executable. Conclusion We have used LACK in our laboratory to generate biological hypotheses based on our microarray data. We demonstrate the program's utility using an example in which we confirm significant upregulation of SPI-2 pathogenicity island of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium by the cation chelator dipyridyl.

  20. Statistical Significance for Hierarchical Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimes, Patrick K.; Liu, Yufeng; Hayes, D. Neil; Marron, J. S.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Cluster analysis has proved to be an invaluable tool for the exploratory and unsupervised analysis of high dimensional datasets. Among methods for clustering, hierarchical approaches have enjoyed substantial popularity in genomics and other fields for their ability to simultaneously uncover multiple layers of clustering structure. A critical and challenging question in cluster analysis is whether the identified clusters represent important underlying structure or are artifacts of natural sampling variation. Few approaches have been proposed for addressing this problem in the context of hierarchical clustering, for which the problem is further complicated by the natural tree structure of the partition, and the multiplicity of tests required to parse the layers of nested clusters. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo based approach for testing statistical significance in hierarchical clustering which addresses these issues. The approach is implemented as a sequential testing procedure guaranteeing control of the family-wise error rate. Theoretical justification is provided for our approach, and its power to detect true clustering structure is illustrated through several simulation studies and applications to two cancer gene expression datasets. PMID:28099990

  1. Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

  2. Examining National Trends in Educational Placements for Students with Significant Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morningstar, Mary E.; Kurth, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Paul E.

    2017-01-01

    Using the least restrictive environments (LRE) data from annual "Reports to Congress," this study examined national trends in placement between 2000 and 2014 for school-aged students considered to have significant disabilities from among the categories of autism (ASD), intellectual disability (ID), multiple disabilities (MD), and…

  3. Statistical and trend analysis of water quality and quantity data for the Strymon River in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Z. Antonopoulos

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Strymon is a transboundary river of Greece, Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM in southeastern Europe. Water quality parameters and the discharge have been monitored each month just 10 km downstream of the river’s entry into Greece. The data of nine water quality variables (T, ECw, DO, SO42-, Na++K+, Mg2+ , Ca2+, NO3‾, TP and the discharge for the period 1980-1997 were selected for this analysis. In this paper a the time series of monthly values of water quality parameters and the discharge were analysed using statistical methods, b the existence of trends and the evaluation of the best fitted models were performed and c the relationships between concentration and loads of constituents both with the discharge were also examined. Boxplots for summarising the distribution of a data set were used. The ◈-test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test were used to select the theoretical distribution which best fitted the data. Simple regression was used to examine the concentration-discharge and the load-discharge relationships. According to the correlation coefficient (r values the relation between concentrations and discharge is weak (r 0.902. Trends were detected using the nonparametric Spearman’s criterion upon the data for the variables: Q, ECw, DO, SO42-, Na++K+ and NO3‾ on which temporal trend analysis was performed. Keywords: Strymon river, water quality, discharge, concentration, load, statistics, trends

  4. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Karen L; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

  5. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L Kramer

    Full Text Available Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1 as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2 competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3 however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

  6. Increasing the statistical significance of entanglement detection in experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jungnitsch, Bastian; Niekamp, Soenke; Kleinmann, Matthias; Guehne, Otfried [Institut fuer Quantenoptik und Quanteninformation, Innsbruck (Austria); Lu, He; Gao, Wei-Bo; Chen, Zeng-Bing [Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at Microscale and Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei (China); Chen, Yu-Ao; Pan, Jian-Wei [Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at Microscale and Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei (China); Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Heidelberg (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Entanglement is often verified by a violation of an inequality like a Bell inequality or an entanglement witness. Considerable effort has been devoted to the optimization of such inequalities in order to obtain a high violation. We demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that such an optimization does not necessarily lead to a better entanglement test, if the statistical error is taken into account. Theoretically, we show for different error models that reducing the violation of an inequality can improve the significance. We show this to be the case for an error model in which the variance of an observable is interpreted as its error and for the standard error model in photonic experiments. Specifically, we demonstrate that the Mermin inequality yields a Bell test which is statistically more significant than the Ardehali inequality in the case of a photonic four-qubit state that is close to a GHZ state. Experimentally, we observe this phenomenon in a four-photon experiment, testing the above inequalities for different levels of noise.

  7. Reporting effect sizes as a supplement to statistical significance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the article is to review the statistical significance reporting practices in reading instruction studies and to provide guidelines for when to calculate and report effect sizes in educational research. A review of six readily accessible (online) and accredited journals publishing research on reading instruction ...

  8. Your Chi-Square Test Is Statistically Significant: Now What?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe, Donald

    2015-01-01

    Applied researchers have employed chi-square tests for more than one hundred years. This paper addresses the question of how one should follow a statistically significant chi-square test result in order to determine the source of that result. Four approaches were evaluated: calculating residuals, comparing cells, ransacking, and partitioning. Data…

  9. Confidence intervals permit, but don't guarantee, better inference than statistical significance testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Coulson

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST, or confidence intervals (CIs. Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioural neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.

  10. Critical evaluation of national vital statistics: the case of preterm birth trends in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Sofia; Rodrigues, Teresa; Montenegro, Nuno; Barros, Henrique

    2015-11-01

    Using vital statistics, the Portuguese National Health Plan predicts that 14% of live births will be preterm in 2016. The prediction was based on a preterm birth rise from 5.9% in 2000 to 8.8% in 2009. However, the same source showed an actual decline from 2010 onwards. To assess the plausibility of national preterm birth trends, we aimed to compare the evolution of preterm birth and low birthweight rates between vital statistics and a hospital database. A time-trend analysis (2004-2011) of preterm birth (rates was conducted using data on singleton births from the national birth certificates (n = 801,783) and an electronic maternity unit database (n = 21,392). Annual prevalence estimates, ratios of preterm birth:low birthweight and adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated to compare data sources. Although the national prevalence of preterm birth increased from 2004 (5.4%), particularly between 2006 and 2009 (highest rate was 7.5% in 2007), and decreased after 2009 (5.7% in 2011), the prevalence at the maternity unit remained constant. Between 2006 and 2009, preterm birth was almost 1.4 times higher in the national statistics (using the national or the catchment region samples) than in the maternity unit, but no differences were found for low birthweight. Portuguese preterm birth prevalence seems biased between 2006 and 2009, suggesting that early term babies were misclassified as preterm. As civil registration systems are important to support public health decisions, monitoring strategies should be taken to assure good quality data. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  11. Trends in study design and the statistical methods employed in a leading general medicine journal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosho, M; Sato, Y; Nagashima, K; Takahashi, S

    2018-02-01

    Study design and statistical methods have become core components of medical research, and the methodology has become more multifaceted and complicated over time. The study of the comprehensive details and current trends of study design and statistical methods is required to support the future implementation of well-planned clinical studies providing information about evidence-based medicine. Our purpose was to illustrate study design and statistical methods employed in recent medical literature. This was an extension study of Sato et al. (N Engl J Med 2017; 376: 1086-1087), which reviewed 238 articles published in 2015 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and briefly summarized the statistical methods employed in NEJM. Using the same database, we performed a new investigation of the detailed trends in study design and individual statistical methods that were not reported in the Sato study. Due to the CONSORT statement, prespecification and justification of sample size are obligatory in planning intervention studies. Although standard survival methods (eg Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression model) were most frequently applied, the Gray test and Fine-Gray proportional hazard model for considering competing risks were sometimes used for a more valid statistical inference. With respect to handling missing data, model-based methods, which are valid for missing-at-random data, were more frequently used than single imputation methods. These methods are not recommended as a primary analysis, but they have been applied in many clinical trials. Group sequential design with interim analyses was one of the standard designs, and novel design, such as adaptive dose selection and sample size re-estimation, was sometimes employed in NEJM. Model-based approaches for handling missing data should replace single imputation methods for primary analysis in the light of the information found in some publications. Use of adaptive design with interim analyses is increasing

  12. The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

    2011-09-01

    Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.

  13. Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hines, Paul; Apt, Jay; Talukdar, Sarosh

    2009-01-01

    Using data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984-2006, we find several trends. We find that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States has not decreased over time, that there is a statistically significant increase in blackout frequency during peak hours of the day and during late summer and mid-winter months (although non-storm-related risk is nearly constant through the year) and that there is strong statistical support for the previously observed power-law statistical relationship between blackout size and frequency. We do not find that blackout sizes and blackout durations are significantly correlated. These trends hold even after controlling for increasing demand and population and after eliminating small events, for which the data may be skewed by spotty reporting. Trends in blackout occurrences, such as those observed in the North American data, have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. We provide a number of examples that illustrate how these trends can inform benefit-cost analysis calculations. Also, following procedures used in natural disaster planning we use the observed statistical trends to calculate the size of the 100-year blackout, which for North America is 186,000 MW.

  14. Are Psychology Students Getting Worse at Math?: Trends in the Math Skills of Psychology Statistics Students across 21 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Thomas P.; Kirk, Roger E.

    2017-01-01

    Statistics is an important subject in psychology and social science education. However, inadequate mathematical skills can pose a barrier to learning statistics. Some educators have suggested that students' math skills are declining. The present research examined trends in the math skills of psychology undergraduates across 21 years. Students…

  15. Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Need, E.A.

    1994-01-01

    Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

  16. Testing statistical significance scores of sequence comparison methods with structure similarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leunissen Jack AM

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the past years the Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm has gained popularity due to improved implementations and rapidly increasing computing power. However, the quality and sensitivity of a database search is not only determined by the algorithm but also by the statistical significance testing for an alignment. The e-value is the most commonly used statistical validation method for sequence database searching. The CluSTr database and the Protein World database have been created using an alternative statistical significance test: a Z-score based on Monte-Carlo statistics. Several papers have described the superiority of the Z-score as compared to the e-value, using simulated data. We were interested if this could be validated when applied to existing, evolutionary related protein sequences. Results All experiments are performed on the ASTRAL SCOP database. The Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm with both e-value and Z-score statistics is evaluated, using ROC, CVE and AP measures. The BLAST and FASTA algorithms are used as reference. We find that two out of three Smith-Waterman implementations with e-value are better at predicting structural similarities between proteins than the Smith-Waterman implementation with Z-score. SSEARCH especially has very high scores. Conclusion The compute intensive Z-score does not have a clear advantage over the e-value. The Smith-Waterman implementations give generally better results than their heuristic counterparts. We recommend using the SSEARCH algorithm combined with e-values for pairwise sequence comparisons.

  17. Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

    2018-05-01

    Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

  18. Trends in citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Miquel; Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Ioannidis, John P A; Sanz, Sergio; Fernandez, Esteve; Bhopal, Raj; Morabia, Alfredo; Victora, Cesar; Lopez, Tomàs

    2013-01-01

    There are no analyses of citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature. Such analyses may shed light on how concepts and methods changed while biomedical research evolved. Our aim was to analyze the number and time trends of citations received from biomedical articles by books on epidemiological and statistical methods, and related disciplines. The data source was the Web of Science. The study books were published between 1957 and 2010. The first year of publication of the citing articles was 1945. We identified 125 books that received at least 25 citations. Books first published in 1980-1989 had the highest total and median number of citations per year. Nine of the 10 most cited texts focused on statistical methods. Hosmer & Lemeshow's Applied logistic regression received the highest number of citations and highest average annual rate. It was followed by books by Fleiss, Armitage, et al., Rothman, et al., and Kalbfleisch and Prentice. Fifth in citations per year was Sackett, et al., Evidence-based medicine. The rise of multivariate methods, clinical epidemiology, or nutritional epidemiology was reflected in the citation trends. Educational textbooks, practice-oriented books, books on epidemiological substantive knowledge, and on theory and health policies were much less cited. None of the 25 top-cited books had the theoretical or sociopolitical scope of works by Cochrane, McKeown, Rose, or Morris. Books were mainly cited to reference methods. Books first published in the 1980s continue to be most influential. Older books on theory and policies were rooted in societal and general medical concerns, while the most modern books are almost purely on methods.

  19. Trends in citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miquel Porta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are no analyses of citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature. Such analyses may shed light on how concepts and methods changed while biomedical research evolved. Our aim was to analyze the number and time trends of citations received from biomedical articles by books on epidemiological and statistical methods, and related disciplines. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The data source was the Web of Science. The study books were published between 1957 and 2010. The first year of publication of the citing articles was 1945. We identified 125 books that received at least 25 citations. Books first published in 1980-1989 had the highest total and median number of citations per year. Nine of the 10 most cited texts focused on statistical methods. Hosmer & Lemeshow's Applied logistic regression received the highest number of citations and highest average annual rate. It was followed by books by Fleiss, Armitage, et al., Rothman, et al., and Kalbfleisch and Prentice. Fifth in citations per year was Sackett, et al., Evidence-based medicine. The rise of multivariate methods, clinical epidemiology, or nutritional epidemiology was reflected in the citation trends. Educational textbooks, practice-oriented books, books on epidemiological substantive knowledge, and on theory and health policies were much less cited. None of the 25 top-cited books had the theoretical or sociopolitical scope of works by Cochrane, McKeown, Rose, or Morris. CONCLUSIONS: Books were mainly cited to reference methods. Books first published in the 1980s continue to be most influential. Older books on theory and policies were rooted in societal and general medical concerns, while the most modern books are almost purely on methods.

  20. Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Vogel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

  1. Statistical significance versus clinical relevance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rijn, Marieke H C; Bech, Anneke; Bouyer, Jean; van den Brand, Jan A J G

    2017-04-01

    In March this year, the American Statistical Association (ASA) posted a statement on the correct use of P-values, in response to a growing concern that the P-value is commonly misused and misinterpreted. We aim to translate these warnings given by the ASA into a language more easily understood by clinicians and researchers without a deep background in statistics. Moreover, we intend to illustrate the limitations of P-values, even when used and interpreted correctly, and bring more attention to the clinical relevance of study findings using two recently reported studies as examples. We argue that P-values are often misinterpreted. A common mistake is saying that P < 0.05 means that the null hypothesis is false, and P ≥0.05 means that the null hypothesis is true. The correct interpretation of a P-value of 0.05 is that if the null hypothesis were indeed true, a similar or more extreme result would occur 5% of the times upon repeating the study in a similar sample. In other words, the P-value informs about the likelihood of the data given the null hypothesis and not the other way around. A possible alternative related to the P-value is the confidence interval (CI). It provides more information on the magnitude of an effect and the imprecision with which that effect was estimated. However, there is no magic bullet to replace P-values and stop erroneous interpretation of scientific results. Scientists and readers alike should make themselves familiar with the correct, nuanced interpretation of statistical tests, P-values and CIs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  2. Software Used to Generate Cancer Statistics - SEER Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Videos that highlight topics and trends in cancer statistics and definitions of statistical terms. Also software tools for analyzing and reporting cancer statistics, which are used to compile SEER's annual reports.

  3. Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

    2014-01-01

    Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Zeleňáková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

  5. The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2008-12-01

    An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

  6. Statistical indicators and trends in juvenile delinquency in modern Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuzikhanova E.G.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Statistics of juvenile delinquency in Russia for ten years, allowing to determine its current trends, is presented. It’s noted that earlier the proportion of juveniles among all criminals was about 11-12%. During the period from 2003 to 2013 the proportion of juveniles in the total number of identified offenders decreased to 6%. Despite the reduction in the number of crimes committed by this category of persons, for several years the largest criminal activity is maintained in the age group 16-17 years (70%. Smaller proportion is the age group 14-15 years, there’s a reduction in the number of committed crimes: from 49,300 in 2000 to 19,700 in 2013. Over the same period, the number of reported crimes committed by minors or with their complicity decreased almost three times. With all the ambiguity of attitude to the considered problem, the author defines the role of criminal law policy of the state in response to trends in juvenile crime taking into account its specificity, caused by the complex of interrelated factors related to age, social, psychological characteristics of juveniles as a special social group, the originality of their social status. The legislative novel is considered: the punishment in the form of arrest is not imposed on persons under the age of eighteen by the time of court verdict. It’s summarized that the problems of juvenile delinquency are only partly solved by the humanization of criminal law policy of the state in order to restore social justice, correct the convict and prevent new crimes commission.

  7. Statistical Significance and Effect Size: Two Sides of a Coin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xitao

    This paper suggests that statistical significance testing and effect size are two sides of the same coin; they complement each other, but do not substitute for one another. Good research practice requires that both should be taken into consideration to make sound quantitative decisions. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted, and a…

  8. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  9. Significant Statistics: Viewed with a Contextual Lens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait-McCutcheon, Sandi

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the pedagogical and organisational changes three lead teachers made to their statistics teaching and learning programs. The lead teachers posed the research question: What would the effect of contextually integrating statistical investigations and literacies into other curriculum areas be on student achievement? By finding the…

  10. Which Trend is your Friend?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

  11. "What If" Analyses: Ways to Interpret Statistical Significance Test Results Using EXCEL or "R"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozturk, Elif

    2012-01-01

    The present paper aims to review two motivations to conduct "what if" analyses using Excel and "R" to understand the statistical significance tests through the sample size context. "What if" analyses can be used to teach students what statistical significance tests really do and in applied research either prospectively to estimate what sample size…

  12. Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom

    I comment on the controversy between McCloskey & Ziliak and Hoover & Siegler on statistical versus economic significance, in the March 2008 issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology. I argue that while McCloskey & Ziliak are right in emphasizing 'real error', i.e. non-sampling error that cannot...... be eliminated through specification testing, they fail to acknowledge those areas in economics, e.g. rational expectations macroeconomics and asset pricing, where researchers clearly distinguish between statistical and economic significance and where statistical testing plays a relatively minor role in model...

  13. Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

  14. Significant social events and increasing use of life-sustaining treatment: trend analysis using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Yuan; Chen, Likwang; Huang, Tien-Shang; Ko, Wen-Je; Chu, Tzong-Shinn; Ni, Yen-Hsuan; Chang, Shan-Chwen

    2014-03-04

    Most studies have examined the outcomes of patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a life-sustaining treatment. It is unclear whether significant social events are associated with the use of life-sustaining treatment. This study aimed to compare the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan with that in the world, and to examine the influence of significant social events on the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan. Taiwan's extracorporeal membrane oxygenation uses from 2000 to 2009 were collected from National Health Insurance Research Dataset. The number of the worldwide extracorporeal membrane oxygenation cases was mainly estimated using Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary July 2012. The trend of Taiwan's crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was compared with that of the rest of the world. Each trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was examined using joinpoint regression. The measurement was the crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. Each of the Taiwan's crude annual incidence rates was much higher than the worldwide one in the same year. Both the trends of Taiwan's and worldwide crude annual incidence rates have significantly increased since 2000. Joinpoint regression selected the model of the Taiwan's trend with one joinpoint in 2006 as the best-fitted model, implying that the significant social events in 2006 were significantly associated with the trend change of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use following 2006. In addition, significantly social events highlighted by the media are more likely to be associated with the increase of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use than being fully covered by National Health Insurance. Significant social events, such as a well-known person's successful extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use highlighted by the mass media, are associated with the use of

  15. Quantitative Communication Research: Review, Trends, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy R. Levine

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Trends in quantitative communication research are reviewed. A content analysis of 48 articles reporting original communication research published in 1988-1991 and 2008-2011 is reported. Survey research and self-report measurement remain common approaches to research. Null hypothesis significance testing remains the dominant approach to statistical analysis. Reporting the shapes of distributions, estimates of statistical power, and confidence intervals remain uncommon. Trends over time include the increased popularity of health communication and computer mediated communication as topics of research, and increased attention to mediator and moderator variables. The implications of these practices for scientific progress are critically discussed, and suggestions for the future are provided.

  16. Distinguishing between statistical significance and practical/clinical meaningfulness using statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Michael

    2014-03-01

    Decisions about support for predictions of theories in light of data are made using statistical inference. The dominant approach in sport and exercise science is the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) significance-testing approach. When applied correctly it provides a reliable procedure for making dichotomous decisions for accepting or rejecting zero-effect null hypotheses with known and controlled long-run error rates. Type I and type II error rates must be specified in advance and the latter controlled by conducting an a priori sample size calculation. The N-P approach does not provide the probability of hypotheses or indicate the strength of support for hypotheses in light of data, yet many scientists believe it does. Outcomes of analyses allow conclusions only about the existence of non-zero effects, and provide no information about the likely size of true effects or their practical/clinical value. Bayesian inference can show how much support data provide for different hypotheses, and how personal convictions should be altered in light of data, but the approach is complicated by formulating probability distributions about prior subjective estimates of population effects. A pragmatic solution is magnitude-based inference, which allows scientists to estimate the true magnitude of population effects and how likely they are to exceed an effect magnitude of practical/clinical importance, thereby integrating elements of subjective Bayesian-style thinking. While this approach is gaining acceptance, progress might be hastened if scientists appreciate the shortcomings of traditional N-P null hypothesis significance testing.

  17. TRENDS IN URBAN STORM WATER QUALITY IN TALLINN AND INFLUENCES FROM STORMFLOW AND BASEFLOW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharat Maharjan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Temporal trends provide a good interpretation of change in stormwater quality over time. This study aimed to analyse trends and influences due to stormflow and baseflow. Grab samples of 18-19 years from 1995 to 2014 recorded at outlets of 7 Tallinn watersheds were analysed for monotonic trend through seasonal Mann Kendall test for long-term, short-term, baseflow and stormflow. Statistically significant downward trends (P-value (p 0.05 and < 0.2 for 3 – SS, 1 – BOD, 1 – TN and 1 – TP were identified. Statistically significant long-term upward trends of pH were revealed in 5 basins, which reduced to 2 with 5 less significant upward trends over the 10 year period, indicating improvements in pH reduction. Härjapea has the highest pH without trend but it includes an upward trend of TN at p = 0.051. The highly possible causes for downward trends are street sweeping, sewer network improvement, decline in sub-urban agricultural areas, etc. The upward trend results of pH are related to increased alkalinisation due to acidic rain, weathering of carbonate rocks, sewage discharge and alkaline road dust. In most of the basins, stormflow has more influence on trends than baseflow.

  18. Codon Deviation Coefficient: a novel measure for estimating codon usage bias and its statistical significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhang

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic mutation, selective pressure for translational efficiency and accuracy, level of gene expression, and protein function through natural selection are all believed to lead to codon usage bias (CUB. Therefore, informative measurement of CUB is of fundamental importance to making inferences regarding gene function and genome evolution. However, extant measures of CUB have not fully accounted for the quantitative effect of background nucleotide composition and have not statistically evaluated the significance of CUB in sequence analysis. Results Here we propose a novel measure--Codon Deviation Coefficient (CDC--that provides an informative measurement of CUB and its statistical significance without requiring any prior knowledge. Unlike previous measures, CDC estimates CUB by accounting for background nucleotide compositions tailored to codon positions and adopts the bootstrapping to assess the statistical significance of CUB for any given sequence. We evaluate CDC by examining its effectiveness on simulated sequences and empirical data and show that CDC outperforms extant measures by achieving a more informative estimation of CUB and its statistical significance. Conclusions As validated by both simulated and empirical data, CDC provides a highly informative quantification of CUB and its statistical significance, useful for determining comparative magnitudes and patterns of biased codon usage for genes or genomes with diverse sequence compositions.

  19. Statistics Refresher for Molecular Imaging Technologists, Part 2: Accuracy of Interpretation, Significance, and Variance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Mary Beth

    2018-06-01

    This article is the second part of a continuing education series reviewing basic statistics that nuclear medicine and molecular imaging technologists should understand. In this article, the statistics for evaluating interpretation accuracy, significance, and variance are discussed. Throughout the article, actual statistics are pulled from the published literature. We begin by explaining 2 methods for quantifying interpretive accuracy: interreader and intrareader reliability. Agreement among readers can be expressed simply as a percentage. However, the Cohen κ-statistic is a more robust measure of agreement that accounts for chance. The higher the κ-statistic is, the higher is the agreement between readers. When 3 or more readers are being compared, the Fleiss κ-statistic is used. Significance testing determines whether the difference between 2 conditions or interventions is meaningful. Statistical significance is usually expressed using a number called a probability ( P ) value. Calculation of P value is beyond the scope of this review. However, knowing how to interpret P values is important for understanding the scientific literature. Generally, a P value of less than 0.05 is considered significant and indicates that the results of the experiment are due to more than just chance. Variance, standard deviation (SD), confidence interval, and standard error (SE) explain the dispersion of data around a mean of a sample drawn from a population. SD is commonly reported in the literature. A small SD indicates that there is not much variation in the sample data. Many biologic measurements fall into what is referred to as a normal distribution taking the shape of a bell curve. In a normal distribution, 68% of the data will fall within 1 SD, 95% will fall within 2 SDs, and 99.7% will fall within 3 SDs. Confidence interval defines the range of possible values within which the population parameter is likely to lie and gives an idea of the precision of the statistic being

  20. The Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries Annual Statistics: an exploratory twenty-five-year trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Gary D; Shedlock, James

    2003-04-01

    This paper presents an exploratory trend analysis of the statistics published over the past twenty-four editions of the Annual Statistics of Medical School Libraries in the United States and Canada. The analysis focuses on the small subset of nineteen consistently collected data variables (out of 656 variables collected during the history of the survey) to provide a general picture of the growth and changing dimensions of services and resources provided by academic health sciences libraries over those two and one-half decades. The paper also analyzes survey response patterns for U.S. and Canadian medical school libraries, as well as osteopathic medical school libraries surveyed since 1987. The trends show steady, but not dramatic, increases in annual means for total volumes collected, expenditures for staff, collections and other operating costs, personnel numbers and salaries, interlibrary lending and borrowing, reference questions, and service hours. However, when controlled for inflation, most categories of expenditure have just managed to stay level. The exceptions have been expenditures for staff development and travel and for collections, which have both outpaced inflation. The fill rate for interlibrary lending requests has remained steady at about 75%, but the mean ratio of items lent to items borrowed has decreased by nearly 50%.

  1. Tool Sequence Trends in Minimally Invasive Surgery: Statistical Analysis and Implications for Predictive Control of Multifunction Instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl A. Nelson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of 67 minimally invasive surgical procedures covering 11 different procedure types to determine patterns of tool use. A new graph-theoretic approach was taken to organize and analyze the data. Through grouping surgeries by type, trends of common tool changes were identified. Using the concept of signal/noise ratio, these trends were found to be statistically strong. The tool-use trends were used to generate tool placement patterns for modular (multi-tool, cartridge-type surgical tool systems, and the same 67 surgeries were numerically simulated to determine the optimality of these tool arrangements. The results indicate that aggregated tool-use data (by procedure type can be employed to predict tool-use sequences with good accuracy, and also indicate the potential for artificial intelligence as a means of preoperative and/or intraoperative planning. Furthermore, this suggests that the use of multifunction surgical tools can be optimized to streamline surgical workflow.

  2. Systematic reviews of anesthesiologic interventions reported as statistically significant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Imberger, Georgina; Gluud, Christian; Boylan, John

    2015-01-01

    statistically significant meta-analyses of anesthesiologic interventions, we used TSA to estimate power and imprecision in the context of sparse data and repeated updates. METHODS: We conducted a search to identify all systematic reviews with meta-analyses that investigated an intervention that may......: From 11,870 titles, we found 682 systematic reviews that investigated anesthesiologic interventions. In the 50 sampled meta-analyses, the median number of trials included was 8 (interquartile range [IQR], 5-14), the median number of participants was 964 (IQR, 523-1736), and the median number...

  3. Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trend of Performance, Production and Cultivated Area of 17 Field Crops Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zareabyaneh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Any planning for the future requires estimates of future conditions. It is possible to study changes over time series. In this study, changes of production and cultivated area of 17 field crops of Khorasan Razavi province in a 25-year period were determined with Mann - Kendall test, Sen’s Estimator Slope and linear regression. Analysis of the three tests showed that performance of 76.5% from yield, 88.2% from area under cultivation and 55.8% from agricultural production were significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level. On the other hand, trend of yields 58.8% was increase, 17.7% was reduced and 23.5% was no significant trend. Similarly, trend of 23.5% from area under cultivation was acreage, 64.7% was reduction, and 11.8% was no significant trend. For production variable, 29.4% was significantly increased and 29.4% was significant reduction. More detailed analysis showed that performance, production and area under cultivation of three crops of cotton, grain and tomatoes increased significantly. Results of all three methods showed the highest trend of negatively performance and area under cultivation variation is related to pea and melon respectively. Furthermore, most of the positive trend in production of tomatoes and grain, performance in onions, potatoes and tomatoes and area under cultivation in tomato observed. The results showed that linear trend and the nonparametric tests of important products of province: wheat, barley, sugar beet, cotton, melons, watermelons and tomatoes in 0.01 were significant. This result shows the importance of these yields in gross state province product.

  4. Plunkett's E-Commerce & Internet Business Almanac 2012 E-Commerce & Internet Business Industry Market Research, Statistics, Trends & Leading Companies

    CERN Document Server

    Plunkett, Jack W

    2012-01-01

    Market research guide to the e-commerce and Internet business-a tool for strategic planning, competitive intelligence, employment searches or financial research. Contains trends analysis, globalization, trade, statistical tables and an industry glossary. Includes our profiles of nearly 450 top e-commerce and internet industry firms, featuring addresses, phone numbers and executive names.

  5. Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuan-Man

    2006-01-01

    A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

  6. Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

    2017-10-01

    Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

  7. P-Value, a true test of statistical significance? a cautionary note ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While it's not the intention of the founders of significance testing and hypothesis testing to have the two ideas intertwined as if they are complementary, the inconvenient marriage of the two practices into one coherent, convenient, incontrovertible and misinterpreted practice has dotted our standard statistics textbooks and ...

  8. Codon Deviation Coefficient: A novel measure for estimating codon usage bias and its statistical significance

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Zhang

    2012-03-22

    Background: Genetic mutation, selective pressure for translational efficiency and accuracy, level of gene expression, and protein function through natural selection are all believed to lead to codon usage bias (CUB). Therefore, informative measurement of CUB is of fundamental importance to making inferences regarding gene function and genome evolution. However, extant measures of CUB have not fully accounted for the quantitative effect of background nucleotide composition and have not statistically evaluated the significance of CUB in sequence analysis.Results: Here we propose a novel measure--Codon Deviation Coefficient (CDC)--that provides an informative measurement of CUB and its statistical significance without requiring any prior knowledge. Unlike previous measures, CDC estimates CUB by accounting for background nucleotide compositions tailored to codon positions and adopts the bootstrapping to assess the statistical significance of CUB for any given sequence. We evaluate CDC by examining its effectiveness on simulated sequences and empirical data and show that CDC outperforms extant measures by achieving a more informative estimation of CUB and its statistical significance.Conclusions: As validated by both simulated and empirical data, CDC provides a highly informative quantification of CUB and its statistical significance, useful for determining comparative magnitudes and patterns of biased codon usage for genes or genomes with diverse sequence compositions. 2012 Zhang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  9. TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. JIPA

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER. In the context of climate change at global and regional scale, this study intends to identify the trends in variability of the annual and monthly flow of Teleajen river. The study is based on processing the series of mean, maximum and minimum flows at Cheia and Moara Domnească hydrometric stations (these data were taken from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. The period of analysis is 1966-1998, statistical methods beeing mostly used, among which the Mann – Kendall test, that identifies the liniar trend and its statistic significance, comes into focus. The trends in the variability of water annual and monthly flows are highlighted. The results obtained show downward trends for the mean and maximum annual flows, and for the minimum water discharge, a downward trend for Cheia station and an upward trend for Moara Domnească station. Knowing the trends in the variability of the rivers’ flow is important empirically in view of taking adequate administration measures of the water resources and managment measures for the risks lead by extreme hidrologic events (floods, low-water, according to the possible identified changes.

  10. Interpreting Statistical Significance Test Results: A Proposed New "What If" Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kieffer, Kevin M.; Thompson, Bruce

    As the 1994 publication manual of the American Psychological Association emphasized, "p" values are affected by sample size. As a result, it can be helpful to interpret the results of statistical significant tests in a sample size context by conducting so-called "what if" analyses. However, these methods can be inaccurate…

  11. Measuring individual significant change on the Beck Depression Inventory-II through IRT-based statistics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, D.; Meijer, R.R.; Zevalkink, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    Several researchers have emphasized that item response theory (IRT)-based methods should be preferred over classical approaches in measuring change for individual patients. In the present study we discuss and evaluate the use of IRT-based statistics to measure statistical significant individual

  12. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  13. Persistent collective trend in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

    2010-12-01

    Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

  14. [Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

    2017-05-10

    We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

  15. Summary statistics and trend analysis of water-quality data at sites in the Gila River basin, New Mexico and Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldys, Stanley; Ham, L.K.; Fossum, K.D.

    1995-01-01

    Summary statistics and temporal trends for 19 water-chemistry constituents and for turbidity were computed for 13 study sites in the Gila River basin, Arizona and New Mexico. A nonparametric technique, the seasonal Kendall tau test for flow-adjusted data, was used to analyze temporal changes in water-chemistry data. For the 19 selected constituents and turbidity, decreasing trends in concentrations outnumbered increasing trends by more than two to one. Decreasing trends in concentrations of constituents were found for 49 data sets at the 13 study sites. Gila River at Calva and Gila River above diversions, at Gillespie Dam (eight each) had the most decreasing trends for individual sites. The largest number of decreasing trends measured for a constituent was six for dissolved lead. The next largest number of decreasing trends for a constituent was for dissolved solids and total manganese (five each). Hardness, dissolved sodium, and dissolved chloride had decreasing trends at four of the study sites. Increasing trends in concen- trations of constituents were found for 24 data sets at the 13 study sites. The largest number of increasing trends measured for a single constituent was for pH (four), dissolved sulfate (three), dissolved chromium (three) and total manganese (three). Increased concentrations of constituents generally were found in three areas in the basin-at Pinal Creek above Inspiration Dam, at sites above reservoirs, and at sites on the main stem of the Gila River from Gillespie Dam to the mouth.

  16. Strategies for Testing Statistical and Practical Significance in Detecting DIF with Logistic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fidalgo, Angel M.; Alavi, Seyed Mohammad; Amirian, Seyed Mohammad Reza

    2014-01-01

    This study examines three controversial aspects in differential item functioning (DIF) detection by logistic regression (LR) models: first, the relative effectiveness of different analytical strategies for detecting DIF; second, the suitability of the Wald statistic for determining the statistical significance of the parameters of interest; and…

  17. Can Money Buy Happiness? A Statistical Analysis of Predictors for User Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Ben; Perret, Robert

    2011-01-01

    2007 data from LibQUAL+[TM] and the ACRL Library Trends and Statistics database were analyzed to determine if there is a statistically significant correlation between library expenditures and usage statistics and library patron satisfaction across 73 universities. The results show that users of larger, better funded libraries have higher…

  18. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  19. Thresholds for statistical and clinical significance in systematic reviews with meta-analytic methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Wetterslev, Jorn; Winkel, Per

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Thresholds for statistical significance when assessing meta-analysis results are being insufficiently demonstrated by traditional 95% confidence intervals and P-values. Assessment of intervention effects in systematic reviews with meta-analysis deserves greater rigour. METHODS......: Methodologies for assessing statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in systematic reviews were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, an operational procedure was developed, based mainly on The Cochrane Collaboration methodology and the Grading of Recommendations...... Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines. RESULTS: We propose an eight-step procedure for better validation of meta-analytic results in systematic reviews (1) Obtain the 95% confidence intervals and the P-values from both fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analyses and report the most...

  20. Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

    2010-06-01

    A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

  1. Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

  2. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  3. Trends in observable passive solar design strategies for existing homes in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruzner, Kelly; Cox, Kristin; Machmer, Brian; Klotz, Leidy

    2013-01-01

    Passive design strategies are among the most cost-effective methods to reduce energy consumption in buildings. However, the prevalence of these strategies in existing U.S. homes is not well understood. To help address this issue, this research evaluated a nationally-representative sample of 1000 existing homes distributed geographically across the U.S. Using satellite images, each building was evaluated for three passive design strategies: orientation, roof color, and level of shading. Several statistically significant regional trends were identified. For example, existing homes in the High Plains, Ohio Valley, Northwest, and Southern regions show a statistically significant trend towards orientation in the East–West direction, an effective passive design strategy. Less intuitively, in terms of what would seem to be optimal passive design, buildings in the High Plains and Ohio Valley generally have lighter roof colors than buildings in the warmer Southwest region. At the national level, no statistically significant trends were found towards the passive design strategies evaluated. These trends give us no reason to believe they were a major consideration in the design of existing homes. Policy measures and education may be required to take advantage of the opportunity for cost-effective energy savings through more widespread passive solar design. - Highlights: ► GoogleMaps to examine implementation of cost-effective, observable passive solar strategies in U.S. houses. ► No national trends toward passive solar design in U.S.—a missed opportunity. ► Some regional passive solar trends in U.S. for house orientation, roof color

  4. Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

    2018-01-01

    and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

  5. Epidemiological Trends of Spine Trauma: An Australian Level 1 Trauma Centre Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, J. W.; Chan, C. H. P.; Fitzgerald, M. C. B.; Liew, S. M.; Rosenfeld, J. V.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of current epidemiology and spine trauma trends assists in public resource allocation, fine-tuning of primary prevention methods, and benchmarking purposes. Data on all patients with traumatic spine injuries admitted to the Alfred Hospital, Melbourne between May 1, 2009, and January 1, 2011, were collected from the Alfred Trauma Registry, Alfred Health medical database, and Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. Epidemiological trends were analyzed as a general cohort, with comparison cohorts of nonsurvivors versus survivors and elderly versus nonelderly. Linear regression analysis was utilized to demonstrate trends with statistical significance. There were 965 patients with traumatic spine injuries with 2,333 spine trauma levels. The general cohort showed a trimodal age distribution, male-to-female ratio of 2:2, motor vehicle accidents as the primary spine trauma mechanism, 47.7% patients with severe polytrauma as graded using the Injury Severity Score (ISS), 17.3% with traumatic brain injury (TBI), the majority of patients with one spine injury level, 7% neurological deficit rate, 12.8% spine trauma operative rate, and 5.2% mortality rate. Variables with statistical significance trending toward mortality were the elderly, motor vehicle occupants, severe ISS, TBI, C1–2 dissociations, and American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) A, B, and C neurological grades. Variables with statistical significance trending toward the elderly were females; low falls; one spine injury level; type 2 odontoid fractures; subaxial cervical spine distraction injuries; ASIA A, B, and C neurological grades; and patients without neurological deficits. Of the general cohort, 50.3% of spine trauma survivors were discharged home, and 48.1% were discharged to rehabilitation facilities. This study provides baseline spine trauma epidemiological data. The trimodal age distribution of patients with traumatic spine injuries calls for further studies and intervention targeted

  6. Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambezidis, H. D.; Larissi, I. K.; Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.

    2010-07-01

    In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual rain intensity in Greece are examined during a 41-year period (1962-2002). The meteorological datasets concern monthly rain amounts (mm) and the respective monthly durations (h) recorded at thirty two meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed on Greek territory, in order to calculate the mean monthly rain intensity. All the rain time series used in the analysis were tested by the application of the short-cut Bartlett test of homogeneity. The spatial distribution of the mean annual rain intensity is studied using the Kriging interpolation method, while the temporal variability, concerning the mean annual rain intensity trends along with their significance (Mann-Kendall test), is analysed. The findings of the analysis show that statistically significant negative trends (95% confidence level) appear mainly in the west sub-regions of Greece, while statistically significant positive trends (95% confidence level) appear in the wider area of Athens and the complex of Cyclades Islands. Further analysis concerning the seasonal rain intensity is needed, because there are different seasonal patterns, taking into account that, convective rain in Greece occurs mainly within the summer season.

  7. Establishment of ambient air quality trends using historical monitoring data from Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faisal, K.; Gamal El-Din, M.

    2006-01-01

    Ambient air trends were assessed using data collected over an 8 year period from monitoring stations in Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta. In particular, the study evaluated the short term trends in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Edmonton, as well as the NO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and total hydrocarbons in Fort McKay. In order to evaluate the ambient air trends, this study examined the changes in concentrations of these pollutants between the 50 - 90 percentiles of concentration distributions for a calendar year. These statistics were assumed to be linear over the period of study and fitted using simple linear regression. Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if the slopes of the best-fit lines were greater or less than zero. There was no indication of a statistically significant short-term trend for NO 2 and O 3 for the city of Edmonton. However, statistically pronounced decreasing trends were noted for CO and PM 2.5 . There was no indication of statistically significant trend for any of the pollutants examined at Fort McKay over the study period. It was cautioned that since the period of study over which trends were examined was short, the changes or lack of changes observed do not necessarily indicate long term trends. However, the results suggest that air quality has remained unchanged during the last 6 to 8 years, despite increased economic development in Edmonton and continued oil sands development in Fort McKay

  8. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

  9. Water vapour trends at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, L.; Mattar, C.; Da-Silva, L.; Abarca, R.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper water vapour trends were analyzed at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003. It was carried out using in situ values retrieved by 15 radiosonde stations and NCEP NCAR Reanalysis data (NNR). NNR and radiosonde water vapour data were linked to Koeppen-Geiger climatic zones to calculate anomalies, trends, and the non-parametric statistical significance for each mandatory level. A methodology used to process radiosonde data is shown. Water vapour trends in tropical climates presented positive decadal trends. This is statistically significant for the first mandatory levels retrieved by radiosonde. The highest values are presented in average with NNR; the decadal magnitude for climate Af being 0.15 g kg -1 for 1000 and 925 h Pa, and for climate As 0.27 g kg -1 for 925 and 850 h Pa. For non-tropical climates the magnitude trends of specific humidity are affected by the spatial resolution of NNR, which is seen when comparing the results received by the radiosondes. Finally, this paper shows the initial results of water vapour content trends in the last three decades over South America. Strong climatic events and synoptic oscillations were not commented upon.

  10. Cancer Statistics Animator

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tool allows users to animate cancer trends over time by cancer site and cause of death, race, and sex. Provides access to incidence, mortality, and survival. Select the type of statistic, variables, format, and then extract the statistics in a delimited format for further analyses.

  11. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  12. Intensive inpatient treatment for bulimia nervosa: Statistical and clinical significance of symptom changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrich, Alice; Schlegl, Sandra; Greetfeld, Martin; Fumi, Markus; Voderholzer, Ulrich

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the statistical and clinical significance of symptom changes during an intensive inpatient treatment program with a strong psychotherapeutic focus for individuals with severe bulimia nervosa. 295 consecutively admitted bulimic patients were administered the Structured Interview for Anorexic and Bulimic Syndromes-Self-Rating (SIAB-S), the Eating Disorder Inventory-2 (EDI-2), the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI), and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) at treatment intake and discharge. Results indicated statistically significant symptom reductions with large effect sizes regarding severity of binge eating and compensatory behavior (SIAB-S), overall eating disorder symptom severity (EDI-2), overall psychopathology (BSI), and depressive symptom severity (BDI-II) even when controlling for antidepressant medication. The majority of patients showed either reliable (EDI-2: 33.7%, BSI: 34.8%, BDI-II: 18.1%) or even clinically significant symptom changes (EDI-2: 43.2%, BSI: 33.9%, BDI-II: 56.9%). Patients with clinically significant improvement were less distressed at intake and less likely to suffer from a comorbid borderline personality disorder when compared with those who did not improve to a clinically significant extent. Findings indicate that intensive psychotherapeutic inpatient treatment may be effective in about 75% of severely affected bulimic patients. For the remaining non-responding patients, inpatient treatment might be improved through an even stronger focus on the reduction of comorbid borderline personality traits.

  13. Memory and Trend of Precipitation in China during 1966-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, M.; Sun, F.; Liu, W.

    2017-12-01

    As climate change has had a significant impact on water cycle, the characteristic and variation of precipitation under climate change turned into a hotspot in hydrology. This study aims to analyze the trend and memory (both short-term and long-term) of precipitation in China. To do that, we apply statistical tests (including Mann-Kendall test, Ljung-Box test and Hurst exponent) to annual precipitation (P), frequency of rainy day (λ) and mean daily rainfall in days when precipitation occurs (α) in China (1966-2013). We also use a resampling approach to determine the field significance. From there, we evaluate the spatial distribution and percentages of stations with significant memory or trend. We find that the percentages of significant downtrends for λ and significant uptrends for α are significantly larger than the critical values at 95% field significance level, probably caused by the global warming. From these results, we conclude that extra care is necessary when significant results are obtained using statistical tests. This is because the null hypothesis could be rejected by chance and this situation is more likely to occur if spatial correlation is ignored according to the results of the resampling approach.

  14. Recent Literature on Whether Statistical Significance Tests Should or Should Not Be Banned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegear, James

    This paper summarizes the literature regarding statistical significant testing with an emphasis on recent literature in various discipline and literature exploring why researchers have demonstrably failed to be influenced by the American Psychological Association publication manual's encouragement to report effect sizes. Also considered are…

  15. Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

  16. Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

  17. Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F.

    2014-01-01

    The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

  18. Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

    KAUST Repository

    Mahajan, Salil; North, Gerald R.; Saravanan, R.; Genton, Marc G.

    2011-01-01

    -parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall's τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data

  19. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  20. How the Mastery Rubric for Statistical Literacy Can Generate Actionable Evidence about Statistical and Quantitative Learning Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rochelle E. Tractenberg

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Statistical literacy is essential to an informed citizenry; and two emerging trends highlight a growing need for training that achieves this literacy. The first trend is towards “big” data: while automated analyses can exploit massive amounts of data, the interpretation—and possibly more importantly, the replication—of results are challenging without adequate statistical literacy. The second trend is that science and scientific publishing are struggling with insufficient/inappropriate statistical reasoning in writing, reviewing, and editing. This paper describes a model for statistical literacy (SL and its development that can support modern scientific practice. An established curriculum development and evaluation tool—the Mastery Rubric—is integrated with a new, developmental, model of statistical literacy that reflects the complexity of reasoning and habits of mind that scientists need to cultivate in order to recognize, choose, and interpret statistical methods. This developmental model provides actionable evidence, and explicit opportunities for consequential assessment that serves students, instructors, developers/reviewers/accreditors of a curriculum, and institutions. By supporting the enrichment, rather than increasing the amount, of statistical training in the basic and life sciences, this approach supports curriculum development, evaluation, and delivery to promote statistical literacy for students and a collective quantitative proficiency more broadly.

  1. Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southard, Rodney E.

    2013-01-01

    located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations

  2. Trends in the leading causes of death in Korea, 1983-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Daroh; Ha, Mina; Song, Inmyung

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to analyze trends in the 10 leading causes of death in Korea from 1983 to 2012. Death rates were derived from the Korean Statistics Information Service database and age-adjusted to the 2010 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the points when statistically significant changes occurred in the trends. Between 1983 and 2012, the age-standardized death rate (ASR) from all causes decreased by 61.6% for men and 51.2% for women. ASRs from malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and transport accidents increased initially before decreasing. ASRs from hypertensive diseases, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases and diseases of the liver showed favorable trends (ASR % change: -94.4%, -53.8%, -76.0%, and -78.9% for men, and -77.1%, -36.5%, -67.8%, and -79.9% for women, respectively). ASRs from pneumonia decreased until the mid-1990s and thereafter increased. ASRs from intentional self-harm increased persistently since around 1990 (ASR % change: 122.0% for men and 217.4% for women). In conclusion, death rates from all causes in Korea decreased significantly in the last three decades except in the late 1990s. Despite the great strides made in the overall mortality, temporal trends varied widely by cause. Mortality trends for malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia and intentional self-harm were unfavorable.

  3. Cloud-based solution to identify statistically significant MS peaks differentiating sample categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Jun; Ling, Jeffrey; Jiang, Helen; Wen, Qiaojun; Whitin, John C; Tian, Lu; Cohen, Harvey J; Ling, Xuefeng B

    2013-03-23

    Mass spectrometry (MS) has evolved to become the primary high throughput tool for proteomics based biomarker discovery. Until now, multiple challenges in protein MS data analysis remain: large-scale and complex data set management; MS peak identification, indexing; and high dimensional peak differential analysis with the concurrent statistical tests based false discovery rate (FDR). "Turnkey" solutions are needed for biomarker investigations to rapidly process MS data sets to identify statistically significant peaks for subsequent validation. Here we present an efficient and effective solution, which provides experimental biologists easy access to "cloud" computing capabilities to analyze MS data. The web portal can be accessed at http://transmed.stanford.edu/ssa/. Presented web application supplies large scale MS data online uploading and analysis with a simple user interface. This bioinformatic tool will facilitate the discovery of the potential protein biomarkers using MS.

  4. Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Isaak; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Seth J. Wenger; Jeffrey A. Falke; Christian E. Torgersen; Colin Sowder; E. Ashley Steel; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Aaron S. Ruesch; Nicholas Som; Pascal. Monestiez

    2014-01-01

    Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for...

  5. Selected trends in breast cancer epidemiology in Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ondrusova, M.; Psenkova, M.; Mardiak, J.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of malignant tumors in women and so poses a serious social and economic problem. Aims: By analysing the trends of the basic indicators of breast cancer descriptive epidemiology in Slovakia, the prospective development was predicted, providing the missing information needed to assess the impact of intervention programmes. Results: The age-standardised incidence of breast cancer in Slovakia shows a strongly rising trend by an annual percentage change value of 2.2%, whereby in respect of mortality, after a previous significant decrease in values recorded in the period 2000-2009, stabilisation is registered once again with an annual percentage change of 3.4% (without statistical significance). Conclusion: Adverse trends in the development of breast cancer mortality in Slovakia underline the importance of establishing and monitoring the efficacy of intervention steps as part of organised screening. (author)

  6. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

    2017-06-02

    An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

  7. Trends in bromide wet deposition concentrations in the contiguous United States, 2001-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetherbee, Gregory A; Lehmann, Christopher M B; Kerschner, Brian M; Ludtke, Amy S; Green, Lee A; Rhodes, Mark F

    2018-02-01

    Bromide (Br - ) and other solute concentration data from wet deposition samples collected and analyzed by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) from 2001 to 2016, were statistically analyzed for trends both geographically and temporally by precipitation type. Analysis was limited to NADP sites in the contiguous 48 United States. The Br - concentrations for this time period had a high number of values censored at the detection limits with greater than 86 percent of sample concentrations below analytical detection. Bromide was more frequently detected at NADP sites in coastal regions. Analysis using specialized statistical techniques for censored data revealed that Br - concentrations varied by precipitation type with higher concentrations usually observed in liquid versus precipitation containing snow. Negative temporal trends in Br - wet deposition concentrations were observed at a majority of NADP sites; approximately 25 percent of these trend values were statistically significant at less than 0.05 to 0.10 significance levels. Potential causes for the negative trends were explored, including annual and seasonal changes in precipitation depth, reduced emissions of methyl bromide (CH 3 Br) from coastal wetlands, and declining industrial use of bromine compounds. The results indicate that Br - in non-coastal wet-deposition comes mainly from long-range transport, not local sources. Correlations between Br - , chloride, and nitrate concentrations also were evaluated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

    2014-05-01

    improvement. Most importantly, researchers should abandon the misleading practice of interpreting the results from inferential tests based solely on whether they are statistically significant (or not) and, instead, focus on reporting and interpreting effect sizes, confidence intervals, and significance levels. Nursing researchers also need to conduct and report a priori power analyses, and to address the issue of Type I experiment-wise error inflation in their studies. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. An Application of Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Query-Driven Visualization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gosink, Luke J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Garth, Christoph [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Anderson, John C. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Bethel, E. Wes [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Joy, Kenneth I. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2011-03-01

    Driven by the ability to generate ever-larger, increasingly complex data, there is an urgent need in the scientific community for scalable analysis methods that can rapidly identify salient trends in scientific data. Query-Driven Visualization (QDV) strategies are among the small subset of techniques that can address both large and highly complex datasets. This paper extends the utility of QDV strategies with a statistics-based framework that integrates non-parametric distribution estimation techniques with a new segmentation strategy to visually identify statistically significant trends and features within the solution space of a query. In this framework, query distribution estimates help users to interactively explore their query's solution and visually identify the regions where the combined behavior of constrained variables is most important, statistically, to their inquiry. Our new segmentation strategy extends the distribution estimation analysis by visually conveying the individual importance of each variable to these regions of high statistical significance. We demonstrate the analysis benefits these two strategies provide and show how they may be used to facilitate the refinement of constraints over variables expressed in a user's query. We apply our method to datasets from two different scientific domains to demonstrate its broad applicability.

  10. A multivariate statistical methodology for detection of degradation and failure trends using nuclear power plant operational data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Teichmann, T.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, a multivariate statistical method is presented and demonstrated as a means for analyzing nuclear power plant transients (or events) and safety system performance for detection of malfunctions and degradations within the course of the event based on operational data. The study provides the methodology and illustrative examples based on data gathered from simulation of nuclear power plant transients (due to lack of easily accessible operational data). Such an approach, once fully developed, can be used to detect failure trends and patterns and so can lead to prevention of conditions with serious safety implications

  11. Trends in incidence of lung cancer in Croatia from 2001 to 2013: gender and regional differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siroglavić, Katarina Josipa; Polić Vižintin, Marina; Tripković, Ingrid; Šekerija, Mario; Kukulj, Suzana

    2017-10-31

    To provide an overview of the lung cancer incidence trends in the City of Zagreb (Zagreb), Split-Dalmatia County (SDC), and Croatia in the period from 2001 to 2013. Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. For calculating incidence rates per 100 000 population, we used population estimates for the period 2001-2013 from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Age-standardized rates of lung cancer incidence were calculated by the direct standardization method using the European Standard Population. To describe incidence trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis. Joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence in men in all regions, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -2.2% for Croatia, 1.9% for Zagreb, and -2.0% for SDC. In women, joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant increase in the incidence for Croatia, with APC of 1.4%, a statistically significant increase of 1.0% for Zagreb, and no significant change in trend for SDC. In both genders, joinpoint analysis showed a significant decrease in age-standardized incidence rates of lung cancer, with APC of -1.3% for Croatia, -1.1% for Zagreb, and -1.6% for SDC. There was an increase in female lung cancer incidence rate and a decrease in male lung cancer incidence rate in Croatia in 2001-20013 period, with similar patterns observed in all the investigated regions. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention and cessation policies, especially among women and young people.

  12. PRIS-STATISTICS: Power Reactor Information System Statistical Reports. User's Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    The IAEA developed the Power Reactor Information System (PRIS)-Statistics application to assist PRIS end users with generating statistical reports from PRIS data. Statistical reports provide an overview of the status, specification and performance results of every nuclear power reactor in the world. This user's manual was prepared to facilitate the use of the PRIS-Statistics application and to provide guidelines and detailed information for each report in the application. Statistical reports support analyses of nuclear power development and strategies, and the evaluation of nuclear power plant performance. The PRIS database can be used for comprehensive trend analyses and benchmarking against best performers and industrial standards.

  13. Examining reproducibility in psychology : A hybrid method for combining a statistically significant original study and a replication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Aert, R.C.M.; Van Assen, M.A.L.M.

    2018-01-01

    The unrealistically high rate of positive results within psychology has increased the attention to replication research. However, researchers who conduct a replication and want to statistically combine the results of their replication with a statistically significant original study encounter

  14. A tutorial on hunting statistical significance by chasing N

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denes Szucs

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing concern about the replicability of studies in psychology and cognitive neuroscience. Hidden data dredging (also called p-hacking is a major contributor to this crisis because it substantially increases Type I error resulting in a much larger proportion of false positive findings than the usually expected 5%. In order to build better intuition to avoid, detect and criticise some typical problems, here I systematically illustrate the large impact of some easy to implement and so, perhaps frequent data dredging techniques on boosting false positive findings. I illustrate several forms of two special cases of data dredging. First, researchers may violate the data collection stopping rules of null hypothesis significance testing by repeatedly checking for statistical significance with various numbers of participants. Second, researchers may group participants post-hoc along potential but unplanned independent grouping variables. The first approach 'hacks' the number of participants in studies, the second approach ‘hacks’ the number of variables in the analysis. I demonstrate the high amount of false positive findings generated by these techniques with data from true null distributions. I also illustrate that it is extremely easy to introduce strong bias into data by very mild selection and re-testing. Similar, usually undocumented data dredging steps can easily lead to having 20-50%, or more false positives.

  15. Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

    2014-07-01

    On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of

  16. Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mieruch

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data on MetOp.

    Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H2O columns and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes from −5% per year to +5% per year. These significant trends are distributed over the whole globe. Increasing trends have been calculated for Greenland, East Europe, Siberia and Oceania, whereas decreasing trends have been observed for the northwest USA, Central America, Amazonia, Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsular.

  17. Quantitative Evaluation of Hybrid Aspen Xylem and Immunolabeling Patterns Using Image Analysis and Multivariate Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Sandquist

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new method is presented for quantitative evaluation of hybrid aspen genotype xylem morphology and immunolabeling micro-distribution. This method can be used as an aid in assessing differences in genotypes from classic tree breeding studies, as well as genetically engineered plants. The method is based on image analysis, multivariate statistical evaluation of light, and immunofluorescence microscopy images of wood xylem cross sections. The selected immunolabeling antibodies targeted five different epitopes present in aspen xylem cell walls. Twelve down-regulated hybrid aspen genotypes were included in the method development. The 12 knock-down genotypes were selected based on pre-screening by pyrolysis-IR of global chemical content. The multivariate statistical evaluations successfully identified comparative trends for modifications in the down-regulated genotypes compared to the unmodified control, even when no definitive conclusions could be drawn from individual studied variables alone. Of the 12 genotypes analyzed, three genotypes showed significant trends for modifications in both morphology and immunolabeling. Six genotypes showed significant trends for modifications in either morphology or immunocoverage. The remaining three genotypes did not show any significant trends for modification.

  18. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  19. Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

    2018-02-01

    This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

  20. Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccolari, Mauro; Parmiggiani, Flavio

    2018-05-01

    Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982-2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than -5 % dec -1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5 % dec -1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial "non-variability" in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.

  1. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    elevation ranges from 0 m in the coastal areas of the. Persian Gulf to over ... been explained by Kang and Yusof (2012); Dhorde ...... J L 2004 Detection of statistically significant trends in ... Sun H, Chen Y, Li W, Li F, Chen Y, Hao X and Yang Y.

  2. Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

    2018-04-01

    Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

  3. Temporal trends (1999–2010) of perfluoroalkyl acids in commonly consumed food items

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Jana H.; Berger, Urs; Vestergren, Robin; Cousins, Ian T.; Bignert, Anders; Glynn, Anders; Darnerud, Per Ola

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine how dietary exposure to PFAAs has changed over the period when major production changes occurred. Archived samples (1999–2010) of eggs, milk and farmed rainbow trout were analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) in fish (p < 0.002 and p < 0.032, respectively) and eggs (p < 0.001 for both compounds). Concentrations of PFOS in fish and eggs decreased by a factor of 10 and 40, respectively. In eggs there was also a statistically significant decreasing trend in concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The results of this study demonstrate that PFAA concentrations in food items from agricultural food chains and aquatic food chains close to sources respond rapidly to changes in environmental emissions. Implications for the overall understanding of human exposure are discussed. - Highlights: • Food items sampled yearly (1999–2010) were analyzed for perfluoroalkyl acids. • Significantly declining trends were observed for PFOS and PFHxS in farmed fish and eggs. • In eggs, an additional significant decreasing trend was found for PFOA. • A decrease in human dietary exposure to PFHxS, PFOS and PFOA is suggested. - Concentrations of PFOS in farmed fish and in hen's eggs decreased between 1999 and 2010. Furthermore, we observed decreasing trends of PFOA in eggs and PFHxS in fish

  4. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  5. Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clauset, Aaron

    2018-01-01

    Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying conflict-generating processes? Or is it consistent with a highly variable but otherwise stable system of conflict? Using the empirical distributions of interstate war sizes and onset times from 1823 to 2003, we parameterize stationary models of conflict generation that can distinguish trends from statistical fluctuations in the statistics of war. These models indicate that both the long peace and the period of great violence that preceded it are not statistically uncommon patterns in realistic but stationary conflict time series. This fact does not detract from the importance of the long peace or the proposed mechanisms that explain it. However, the models indicate that the postwar pattern of peace would need to endure at least another 100 to 140 years to become a statistically significant trend. This fact places an implicit upper bound on the magnitude of any change in the true likelihood of a large war after the end of the Second World War. The historical patterns of war thus seem to imply that the long peace may be substantially more fragile than proponents believe, despite recent efforts to identify mechanisms that reduce the likelihood of interstate wars. PMID:29507877

  6. Energy statistics yearbook 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2002 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-sixth in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  7. Energy statistics yearbook 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2001 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-fifth in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  8. Energy statistics yearbook 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2000 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-third in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  9. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  10. [The trend in pregnancies terminated by a cesarean operation in Mexico during 1991-1995].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juárez Ocaña, S J; Fajardo Gutiérrez, A; Pérez Palacios, G; Guerrero Morales, R G; Gómez Delgado, A

    1999-07-01

    In the last decades has been a worldwide trend to increase the number of cesarean sections as an alternative of obstetric resolution, phenomenon for which it was proposed a variety of explanation, this fact remains practically unknown in the institutions of the National Health System (NHS) in Mexico. To identify the trend of the pregnancy to end for cesarean sections during the years of 1991-1995 in the 32 states of de country, as well as of all the institutions of the National Health System. Descriptive, cross sectional and retrospective. We use the data of the Bureau of Statistics and Informatics of de Health Ministry of each one of the 32 states of the country, of the years 1991 to 1995, and of the number of cesarean sections made in the hospitals of the different institutions of the NHS. We started off with a data-base, to calculate frequency tables, and the specific rate of the cesarean section for each year, for each one of the states and institutions of the NHS. We calculate the secular trends using the annual rates of cesarean section, for each one of the states and institutions of the NHS. We also made bivariate analysis and estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval (95% IC); and the statistic X2 for trend, setting the two tailed statistic significance level of 0.05. During the study period, there was 7,503,817 births in all hospitals of the NHS, of these births 1,929,865 (25.72%) was resolved by cesarean section. For the whole period it there was a clear trend to increment of the cesarean section, the rate for 1991 was 20.44%, and by 1995 was 28.58%, the raise for the period was 39.82%, with values of the OR for trend of 1.56; 95% IC (1.55-1.57). "P" SOLIDARIDAD and 21.7% for the Health Ministry, all trends were statistically significant. In relation to the institutes attending closed population the raise was of 53.27% [OR trend 1.82; 95% IC (1.81-1.83), "p" < 0.05], with the highest rate for the National Defense Ministry which had a rate

  11. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-F. Sang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961–2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale. The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann–Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  12. A critical discussion of null hypothesis significance testing and statistical power analysis within psychological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo

    2007-01-01

    The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...... the potential error introduced by small and large samples is advocated. Power analysis is not recommended as a replacement to NHST but as an additional source of information about the phenomena under investigation. Moreover, the importance of conceptual analysis in relation to statistical analysis of hypothesis...

  13. Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Manasi S.; Dhorde, Amit G.

    2018-02-01

    The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

  14. A preliminary study for investigating idiopatic normal pressure hydrocephalus by means of statistical parameters classification of intracranial pressure recordings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calisto, A; Bramanti, A; Galeano, M; Angileri, F; Campobello, G; Serrano, S; Azzerboni, B

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate Id-iopatic Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus (INPH) through a multidimensional and multiparameter analysis of statistical data obtained from accurate analysis of Intracranial Pressure (ICP) recordings. Such a study could permit to detect new factors, correlated with therapeutic response, which are able to validate a predicting significance for infusion test. The algorithm developed by the authors computes 13 ICP parameter trends on each of the recording, afterward 9 statistical information from each trend is determined. All data are transferred to the datamining software WEKA. According to the exploited feature-selection techniques, the WEKA has revealed that the most significant statistical parameter is the maximum of Single-Wave-Amplitude: setting a 27 mmHg threshold leads to over 90% of correct classification.

  15. 1992 Energy statistics Yearbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the United Nations Statistical Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistical Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  16. Statistical analysis of lineament patterns and their palinspastic restoration: Coeur d'Alene mining district, Idaho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkatakrishnan, R.; McMillan, T.B.; Waller, E.B.

    1985-01-01

    2644 lineaments obtained from multistage lineament mapping on color infrared and conventional black and white aerial photos and Landsat images were digitized and length-weighted frequency distributions calculated at 5 degree intervals on a 10 kilometer square grid. Statistically significant peaks (<95%) and trough (>5%) within each cell were identified. These significant trends were cross correlated with available structural data such as mapped faults, joints and Pb-Zn-Ag bearing ore veins in each cell. The resulting lineament map was then subjected to a palinspastic restoration. Ambiguity in interpreting the paly-modal population was corrected by restoring the lineament within each of the 21 fault-bound structural domains. Restoration of the patterns was accomplished by translating the digitized block margins with their lineaments to the predetermined palinspastic base. On the basis of this reconstruction it has been possible to identify individual grid cells that had strongest correlations with available structural data. These cells clearly showed that spatial filtering of lineament patterns into statistically significant trends brings forth the strong structural controls on mineralization exerted by preexisting ac-joints and faults in the NW-SE trending arcuate Kootenay folds that were right-laterally displaced and deformed by the Lewis and Clark shear zone. Statistically significant correlation between ore-veins and lineaments was only possible on palinspastic restoration and not on the present day lineament map.

  17. Temporal trends 1987-2002 of regulated POPs in beluga whales from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebeuf, M; Noel, M; Trottier, S.; Measures, L. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Beluga populations in the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) are now threatened. The decline of the beluga population has been attributed to the presence of high concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study assessed the temporal trends of POPs in beluga, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT, chlordanes, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbon (HCH) isomers, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbons (HCB), and mirex in SLE populations between 1987 and 2002. Blubber concentrations of individual POP or POP groups in both male and female belugas were fitted to simple natural algorithms using linear regression analyses. Only animals older than 10 years were examined. POPs, PCBs, and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in blubber samples. Temporal trends of biological parameters such as age, lipid content, and length of the animals were assessed separately for both female and male belugas. POP concentrations were expressed on a lipid weight basis for the statistical analyses. Temporal trends of biological parameters, individual POP or POP group concentrations in both females and males were assessed using simple in-linear regression analysis from which half-life time was calculated for each statistically significant time trend. Results showed that approximately half of the POPs showed significant decreasing levels in female beluga between 1987 and 2002 and in males between 1988 and 2002. Temporal trends of PCBs, DDTs, and HCH were significant in both males and females, while chlordanes, and mirex levels were not significant in either sex. HCB exhibited a significant time trend in males. Time trends were in agreement with expected declines for regulated POPs. It was concluded that bioaccumulative POPs must be rapidly regulated before they reach high levels, as POP compounds are very slowly eliminated by belugas. 9 refs., 1 tab.

  18. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  19. Using statistical process control for monitoring the prevalence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottner, Jan; Halfens, Ruud

    2010-05-01

    Institutionally acquired pressure ulcers are used as outcome indicators to assess the quality of pressure ulcer prevention programs. Determining whether quality improvement projects that aim to decrease the proportions of institutionally acquired pressure ulcers lead to real changes in clinical practice depends on the measurement method and statistical analysis used. To examine whether nosocomial pressure ulcer prevalence rates in hospitals in the Netherlands changed, a secondary data analysis using different statistical approaches was conducted of annual (1998-2008) nationwide nursing-sensitive health problem prevalence studies in the Netherlands. Institutions that participated regularly in all survey years were identified. Risk-adjusted nosocomial pressure ulcers prevalence rates, grade 2 to 4 (European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel system) were calculated per year and hospital. Descriptive statistics, chi-square trend tests, and P charts based on statistical process control (SPC) were applied and compared. Six of the 905 healthcare institutions participated in every survey year and 11,444 patients in these six hospitals were identified as being at risk for pressure ulcers. Prevalence rates per year ranged from 0.05 to 0.22. Chi-square trend tests revealed statistically significant downward trends in four hospitals but based on SPC methods, prevalence rates of five hospitals varied by chance only. Results of chi-square trend tests and SPC methods were not comparable, making it impossible to decide which approach is more appropriate. P charts provide more valuable information than single P values and are more helpful for monitoring institutional performance. Empirical evidence about the decrease of nosocomial pressure ulcer prevalence rates in the Netherlands is contradictory and limited.

  20. Change-Point and Trend Analysis on Annual Maximum Discharge in Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2008-12-01

    Annual maximum discharge records from 36 stations representing different hydro-climatic regimes in the continental United States with at least 100 years of records are used to investigate the presence of temporal trends and abrupt changes in mean and variance. Change point analysis is performed by means of two non- parametric (Pettitt and CUSUM), one semi-parametric (Guan), and two parametric (Rodionov and Bayesian Change Point) tests. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) and one parametric (Pearson) tests are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Generalized Additive Model for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) models are also used to parametrically model the streamflow data exploiting their flexibility to account for changes and temporal trends in the parameters of distribution functions. Additionally, serial correlation is assessed in advance by computing the autocorrelation function (ACF), and the Hurst parameter is estimated using two estimators (aggregated variance and differenced variance methods) to investigate the presence of long range dependence. The results of this study indicate lack of long range dependence in the maximum streamflow series. At some stations the authors found a statistically significant change point in the mean and/or variance, while in general they detected no statistically significant temporal trends.

  1. Primary pulmonary non-small cell carcinomas: the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program confirms a significant trend toward subcategorization based upon fine-needle aspiration cytomorphology alone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz-Aktas, Isil Z; Sturgis, Charles D; Barkan, Guliz A; Souers, Rhona J; Fraig, Mostafa M; Laucirica, Rodolfo; Khalbuss, Walid E; Moriarty, Ann T

    2014-01-01

    Context.-Subtyping of non-small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs) is necessary for optimal patient management with specific diagnoses triggering specific molecular tests and affecting therapy. Objective.-To assess the accuracy of the participants of the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program in diagnosing and subtyping NSCLC fine-needle aspiration (FNA) slides, based on morphology alone, considering preparation and participant type and trends over time. Design.-The performance of program participants was reviewed for the 5-year period spanning 2007-2011. Lung FNA challenges with reference diagnoses of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were evaluated for diagnostic concordance by using a nonlinear mixed model analysis. Results.-There were 10 493 pathologist and 6378 cytotechnologist responses with concordance rates of 97.4% and 97.9% for malignancy, respectively. Overall concordance rates for subcategorization were 54.6% for adenocarcinoma and 74.9% for SCC. For the exact reference diagnoses, pathologists performed better for adenocarcinoma and cytotechnologists performed better for SCC. Accurate subcategorization of adenocarcinomas significantly increased over time with 31.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2007 and 25.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2011 (P alone. During the study period, a statistically significant trend was confirmed toward greater accuracy of subcategorization of adenocarcinomas, suggesting that participants are cognizant of the impact that more specific cytomorphologic interpretations have in directing molecular triage and therapy.

  2. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  3. Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro A., Richard; Araya, Consuelo; Labra O., Felipe; Morales, Luis; Morales, Raúl G. E.; Leiva G., Manuel A.

    2017-12-01

    South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth's surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from -0.3 to -4% dec-1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than -10% dec-1 was found at high latitudes (1980-1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of -2.0 ± 0.6% dec-1 at latitudes below 40° S and -6.9 ± 2.0% dec-1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec-1 at high latitudes (> 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that

  4. TREND: a program using cumulative sum methods to detect long-term trends in data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cranston, R.J.; Dunbar, R.M.; Jarvis, R.G.

    1976-01-01

    TREND is a computer program, in FORTRAN, to investigate data for long-term trends that are masked by short-term statistical fluctuations. To do this, it calculates and plots the cumulative sum of deviations from a chosen mean. As a further aid to diagnosis, the procedure can be repeated with a summation of the cumulative sum itself. (author)

  5. Statistical significance estimation of a signal within the GooFit framework on GPUs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristella Leonardo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to test the computing capabilities of GPUs with respect to traditional CPU cores a high-statistics toy Monte Carlo technique has been implemented both in ROOT/RooFit and GooFit frameworks with the purpose to estimate the statistical significance of the structure observed by CMS close to the kinematical boundary of the J/ψϕ invariant mass in the three-body decay B+ → J/ψϕK+. GooFit is a data analysis open tool under development that interfaces ROOT/RooFit to CUDA platform on nVidia GPU. The optimized GooFit application running on GPUs hosted by servers in the Bari Tier2 provides striking speed-up performances with respect to the RooFit application parallelised on multiple CPUs by means of PROOF-Lite tool. The considerable resulting speed-up, evident when comparing concurrent GooFit processes allowed by CUDA Multi Process Service and a RooFit/PROOF-Lite process with multiple CPU workers, is presented and discussed in detail. By means of GooFit it has also been possible to explore the behaviour of a likelihood ratio test statistic in different situations in which the Wilks Theorem may or may not apply because its regularity conditions are not satisfied.

  6. Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

  7. National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J Paul

    2011-01-01

    Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

  8. CURRENT TRENDS OF ROMANIAN RURAL FAMILY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The profound changes experienced by the Romanian society had a profound social impact on the structure and functions of the rural family. The paper aims to highlight the main trends recorded using a number of indicators: ruralization rate, birth rate, infant mortality rate, percentage of children born outside marriage, fertility rate, percentage of population aged 65 and over. Statistics from censuses and statistical yearbooks were processed to identify the trends of the Romanian rural family: changes in reproductive behavior, increased aging, declining birth rates.

  9. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  10. Is statistical significance clinically important?--A guide to judge the clinical relevance of study findings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sierevelt, Inger N.; van Oldenrijk, Jakob; Poolman, Rudolf W.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe several issues that influence the reporting of statistical significance in relation to clinical importance, since misinterpretation of p values is a common issue in orthopaedic literature. Orthopaedic research is tormented by the risks of false-positive (type I error) and

  11. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

    2005-11-01

    A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

  12. Statistical significance of theoretical predictions: A new dimension in nuclear structure theories (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DUDEK, J; SZPAK, B; FORNAL, B; PORQUET, M-G

    2011-01-01

    In this and the follow-up article we briefly discuss what we believe represents one of the most serious problems in contemporary nuclear structure: the question of statistical significance of parametrizations of nuclear microscopic Hamiltonians and the implied predictive power of the underlying theories. In the present Part I, we introduce the main lines of reasoning of the so-called Inverse Problem Theory, an important sub-field in the contemporary Applied Mathematics, here illustrated on the example of the Nuclear Mean-Field Approach.

  13. Detection of field significant long-term monotonic trends in spring yields

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ledvinka, O.; Lamačová, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 5 (2015), s. 1463-1484 ISSN 1436-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Cross-correlation * Groundwater monitoring * Serial correlation * Spring yields * Trend analysis Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.237, year: 2015

  14. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, M.J.

    2007-01-01

    Public water systems in Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island sampled treated drinking water from 1993-2006 and analyzed the samples for MTBE. The US Geological Survey examined trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water derived from ground water in these States for two near-decadal time steps; 1993-1999 and 2000-2006. MTBE was detected in 14% of drinking water samples collected in all States from 1993-1999 and in 19% of drinking water samples collected from the same systems from 2000-2006 and this difference was statistically significant. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in each State by individual year indicated significant positive trends in Maryland and New Hampshire. Significant, increasing trends in MTBE concentrations were observed in Maryland and Rhode Island by individual year. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the 2007 Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Organic Chemicals in Ground Water: Prevention, Assessment and Remediation Conference (Houston, TX 11/5-6/2007).

  15. Trends of river discharges in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulaga, F; Kobold, M; Frantar, P

    2008-01-01

    Trends of river discharges are very important in recognition of climate changes and also in water management. In last years droughts and floods are more and more frequent, therefore monitoring and investigating of hydrological situation became one of the guidance scientific approach. In analysis of mean annual discharges made in Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for the Environment in last years, statistical significance trend was find out only by rivers of northwest alpine region [1] [2] [3]. In recent research of time changing discharges, presumption of generally decreasing of water quantity all over Slovenia was confirmed. Our basic conclusion - in Slovenia it is well recognized decreasing of water quantity in long period of observation. This fact and also worsening of water quality became alarming problems of our future, especially in dry months of the year.

  16. Statistical Significance of the Contribution of Variables to the PCA Solution: An Alternative Permutation Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linting, Marielle; van Os, Bart Jan; Meulman, Jacqueline J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the statistical significance of the contribution of variables to the principal components in principal components analysis (PCA) is assessed nonparametrically by the use of permutation tests. We compare a new strategy to a strategy used in previous research consisting of permuting the columns (variables) of a data matrix…

  17. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  18. Incidence and mortality trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia, 1988-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Ina; Jakšić, Ozren; Kuliš, Tomislav; Batinjan, Katarina; Znaor, Ariana

    2012-01-01

    Aim To investigate the time trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia from 1988-2009, compare them with trends in other populations, and identify possible changes. Methods The data sources were the Croatian National Cancer Registry for incidence data, Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the numbers of deaths, and United Nations population estimates. Joinpoint regression analysis using the age-standardized rates was used to analyze incidence and mortality trends. Results Acute lymphoblastic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence did not significantly change. Acute myeloid leukemia incidence significantly increased in women, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.6% during the whole period, and in men since 1998, with EAPC of 3.2%. Chronic myeloid leukemia incidence significantly decreased in women (EAPC -3.7%) and remained stable in men. Mortality rates were stable for both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia in both sexes. Hodgkin lymphoma non-significantly increased in incidence and significantly decreased in mortality (EAPCs of -5.6% in men and -3.7% in women). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma significantly increased in incidence in women (EAPC 3.2%) and non-significantly in men and in mortality in both men (EAPC 1.6%) and women (EAPC 1.8%). Conclusion While Croatia had similar leukemia and lymphoma incidence trends as the other countries, the mortality trends were less favorable than in Western Europe. The lack of declines of leukemia incidence and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality could be attributed to late introduction of optimal therapies. As currently the most up-to-date diagnostics and treatments are available and covered by health insurance, we expect more favorable trends in the future. PMID:22522989

  19. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  20. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  1. Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004–2014: a multi-exponential approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pandolfi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background, located in the northeast (NE of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004–2014 were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann–Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10 showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN and Montseny (MSY during 2004–2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V–Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic and from the industrial (metallurgy

  2. A Note on Comparing the Power of Test Statistics at Low Significance Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Nathan; Elston, Robert

    2011-01-01

    It is an obvious fact that the power of a test statistic is dependent upon the significance (alpha) level at which the test is performed. It is perhaps a less obvious fact that the relative performance of two statistics in terms of power is also a function of the alpha level. Through numerous personal discussions, we have noted that even some competent statisticians have the mistaken intuition that relative power comparisons at traditional levels such as α = 0.05 will be roughly similar to relative power comparisons at very low levels, such as the level α = 5 × 10 -8 , which is commonly used in genome-wide association studies. In this brief note, we demonstrate that this notion is in fact quite wrong, especially with respect to comparing tests with differing degrees of freedom. In fact, at very low alpha levels the cost of additional degrees of freedom is often comparatively low. Thus we recommend that statisticians exercise caution when interpreting the results of power comparison studies which use alpha levels that will not be used in practice.

  3. Quarterly coal statistics of OECD countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-27

    These quarterly statistics contain data from the fourth quarter 1990 to the fourth quarter 1991. The first set of tables (A1 to A30) show trends in production, trade, stock change and apparent consumption data for OECD countries. Tables B1 to B12 show detailed statistics for some major coal trade flows to and from OECD countries and average value in US dollars. A third set of tables, C1 to C12, show average import values and indices. The trade data have been extracted or derived from national and EEC customs statistics. An introductory section summarizes trends in coal supply and consumption, deliveries to thermal power stations; electricity production and final consumption of coal and tabulates EEC and Japanese steam coal and coking coal imports to major countries.

  4. Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Franzke

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

    The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ2 distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

  5. Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bernhard

    2011-12-01

    's Barrow Observatory and can be explained by a change in snow cover over the observation period: analysis of pyranometer data indicates that the first day of fall when albedo becomes larger than 0.6 after snow fall, and remains above 0.6 for the rest of the winter, has advanced with a statistically significant trend of 13.6 ± 9.7 days per decade.

  6. Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

    2009-09-01

    For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

  7. Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu

    2017-11-01

    Based on a homogenized data set of monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature at Shijiazhuang City Meteorological Station (Shijiazhuang station) and four rural meteorological stations selected applying a more sophisticated methodology, we reanalyzed the urbanization effects on annual, seasonal, and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends for updated time period 1960-2012 at the typical urban station in North China. The results showed that (1) urbanization effects on the long-term trends of annual mean SAT, minimum SAT, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the last 53 years reached 0.25, 0.47, and - 0.50 °C/decade, respectively, all statistically significant at the 0.001 confidence level, with the contributions from urbanization effects to the overall long-term trends reaching 67.8, 78.6, and 100%, respectively; (2) the urbanization effects on the trends of seasonal mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also large and statistically highly significant. Except for November and December, the urbanization effects on monthly mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also all statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level; and (3) the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean maximum SAT series at the urban station registered a generally weaker and non-significant urbanization effect. The updated analysis evidenced that our previous work for this same urban station had underestimated the urbanization effect and its contribution to the overall changes in the SAT series. Many similar urban stations were being included in the current national and regional SAT data sets, and the results of this paper further indicated the importance and urgency for paying more attention to the urbanization bias in the monitoring and detection of global and regional SAT change based on the data sets.

  8. Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

  9. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  10. Evidence-based orthodontics. Current statistical trends in published articles in one journal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Scott V; Chudasama, Dipak N; Rinchuse, Donald J

    2010-09-01

    To ascertain the number, type, and overall usage of statistics in American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial (AJODO) articles for 2008. These data were then compared to data from three previous years: 1975, 1985, and 2003. The frequency and distribution of statistics used in the AJODO original articles for 2008 were dichotomized into those using statistics and those not using statistics. Statistical procedures were then broadly divided into descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, range, percentage) and inferential statistics (t-test, analysis of variance). Descriptive statistics were used to make comparisons. In 1975, 1985, 2003, and 2008, AJODO published 72, 87, 134, and 141 original articles, respectively. The percentage of original articles using statistics was 43.1% in 1975, 75.9% in 1985, 94.0% in 2003, and 92.9% in 2008; original articles using statistics stayed relatively the same from 2003 to 2008, with only a small 1.1% decrease. The percentage of articles using inferential statistical analyses was 23.7% in 1975, 74.2% in 1985, 92.9% in 2003, and 84.4% in 2008. Comparing AJODO publications in 2003 and 2008, there was an 8.5% increase in the use of descriptive articles (from 7.1% to 15.6%), and there was an 8.5% decrease in articles using inferential statistics (from 92.9% to 84.4%).

  11. ClusterSignificance: A bioconductor package facilitating statistical analysis of class cluster separations in dimensionality reduced data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serviss, Jason T.; Gådin, Jesper R.; Eriksson, Per

    2017-01-01

    , e.g. genes in a specific pathway, alone can separate samples into these established classes. Despite this, the evaluation of class separations is often subjective and performed via visualization. Here we present the ClusterSignificance package; a set of tools designed to assess the statistical...... significance of class separations downstream of dimensionality reduction algorithms. In addition, we demonstrate the design and utility of the ClusterSignificance package and utilize it to determine the importance of long non-coding RNA expression in the identity of multiple hematological malignancies....

  12. Trends and Opportunities of BIM-GIS Integration in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction Industry: A Review from a Spatio-Temporal Statistical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongze Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The integration of building information modelling (BIM and geographic information system (GIS in construction management is a new and fast developing trend in recent years, from research to industrial practice. BIM has advantages on rich geometric and semantic information through the building life cycle, while GIS is a broad field covering geovisualization-based decision making and geospatial modelling. However, most current studies of BIM-GIS integration focus on the integration techniques but lack theories and methods for further data analysis and mathematic modelling. This paper reviews the applications and discusses future trends of BIM-GIS integration in the architecture, engineering and construction (AEC industry based on the studies of 96 high-quality research articles from a spatio-temporal statistical perspective. The analysis of these applications helps reveal the evolution progress of BIM-GIS integration. Results show that the utilization of BIM-GIS integration in the AEC industry requires systematic theories beyond integration technologies and deep applications of mathematical modeling methods, including spatio-temporal statistical modeling in GIS and 4D/nD BIM simulation and management. Opportunities of BIM-GIS integration are outlined as three hypotheses in the AEC industry for future research on the in-depth integration of BIM and GIS. BIM-GIS integration hypotheses enable more comprehensive applications through the life cycle of AEC projects.

  13. Statistical significance versus clinical importance: trials on exercise therapy for chronic low back pain as example.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Tulder, M.W.; Malmivaara, A.; Hayden, J.; Koes, B.

    2007-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN. Critical appraisal of the literature. OBJECIVES. The objective of this study was to assess if results of back pain trials are statistically significant and clinically important. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA. There seems to be a discrepancy between conclusions reported by authors and

  14. Assessment of trends in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain, upper Zambezi River Basin: A remote sensing-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Zimba

    2018-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results revealed that there is observable inter-annual variability in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain with prominent differences demonstrated in both the flood ascending/peak and receding period. For the period 2003–2013 the results indicated a rising trend in inundation extent with a Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 1.71 and increase in magnitude of 33.1 km2 at significance level alpha of 0.05. Strong correlations between inundation extent and water level and between inundation extent and discharge with correlation coefficients of determination of 0.86 and 0.89 respectively were observed. For the period 2000–2011 water level time series showed a rising trend with the Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 2.97 and increase in magnitude of 0.1 m at significance level alpha of 0.05. Overall, during the period 1952–2004 discharge in the floodplain showed a declining trend with Mann–Kendall Z statistics of −2.88 and −3.38 at the inlet and outlet of the floodplain respectively. By correlation inference, the overall inundation extent trend in the floodplain was in a downward movement. Rainfall and discharge variability, high evapotranspiration and the changes in the land cover-use in the catchment of the floodplain are largely the factors affecting the observed variability and trends in inundation extent in the floodplain. The presented remote sensing based approach significantly reduces the need for the expensive and time limiting traditional physical field based wetland inundation mapping methods that form a limitation for achieving progress in wetland monitoring especially in open and sparsely gauged floodplains such as the Barotse.

  15. Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

    2018-04-01

    Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

  16. Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Céu Taveira

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls from northern (69.5% and central Portugal (30.5% followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50. Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement

  17. Statistics in the 21st century

    CERN Document Server

    Wells, Martin T; Wells, Martin T

    2001-01-01

    Exactly what is the state of the art in statistics as we move forward into the 21st century? What promises, what trends does its future hold? Through the reflections of 70 of the world's leading statistical methodologists, researchers, theorists, and practitioners, Statistics in the 21st Century answers those questions. Originally published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, this collection of vignettes examines our statistical past, comments on our present, and speculates on our future. Although the coverage is broad and the topics diverse, it reveals the essential intell

  18. The influence of death-certificate errors on cancer mortality trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ron, E.; Hoel, D.G.; Carter, R.L.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko.

    1993-06-01

    Over the past few years, several reports have suggested a recent increase in cancer mortality based on death-certificate diagnoses. To explore the effect of death-certificate errors on temporal trends in cancer mortality rates, we analyzed the data from the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission/Radiation Effects Research Foundation's autopsy program in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This series includes 5886 autopsies conducted between 1961 and 1987. Our analyses were focused on lymphoma, cancer of the breast, neoplasms of the brain, multiple myeloma, and melanoma (172 cases, total) because of concern over reports of their increased mortality. These 172 autopsy cases were referred to as Cancers of Interest. A significant increase in detection rates was observed for these Cancers of Interest primarily due to a large rise in mortality between 1976 and 1987. For the remaining cancers excluding stomach and lung (defined as Other), the pattern was similar to that seen for Cancers of Interest, but the fluctuation over time was not statistically significant. Confirmation rates generally increased with time except for Cancers of Interest. As a measure of bias in mortality rates due to death-certification errors and as a method to quantify under- or overestimation of death-certificate-based mortality rates,an adjustment factor (confirmation rate divided by detection rate) was calculated. The higher the adjustment factor, the greater the need to compensate for underreporting. For Cancers of Interest the adjustment factor decreased dramatically over time, but it did not change significantly for Other cancers. When the adjustment factors for Cancers of Interest and Other were compared, a statistically significant difference was found. For Cancers of Interest, a significant interaction between type of cancer and period was seen. Our findings indicate that considerable care must be shown when interpreting temporal trends in cancer vital statistics. (author)

  19. Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

    2014-01-01

    We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1–0.2 g m −2 year −1 with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m −2 year −1 is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− and NH 4 + /SO 4 2− in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. -- Highlights: • Significant decrease of sulphur deposition at most of sites has been recorded. • Nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests. • Significantly increasing trends of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− , NH 4 + /SO 4 2− , and pH in precipitation. -- While sulphur deposition significantly decreased with the highest improvement in formerly most affected areas, nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests

  20. Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

  1. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  2. APPLIED STATISTICS – THE STATE AND THE PROSPECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Orlov A. I.

    2016-01-01

    Applied Statistics - the science of how to analyze the statistical data. As an independent scientificpractical area it develops very quickly. It includes numerous widely and deeply developed scientific directions. Those who use the applied statistics and other statistical methods, usually focused on specific areas of study, ie, are not specialists in applied statistics. Therefore, it is useful to make a critical analysis of the current state of applied statistics and discuss trends in the dev...

  3. Secular trends in monthly heating and cooling demands in Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvitan, Lidija; Sokol Jurković, Renata

    2016-08-01

    This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices.

  4. Some tendencies of the radioanalytical literature statistical games for trend evaluation. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, T.

    1975-01-01

    The distribution of the radioanalytical information sources was statistically evaluated by citation counting. Using some review and progress reports as object of the study, it seems that in the period 1956-1973 one witnesses a significant concentration of the radioanalytical information sources. Fundamental assumptions were that the information bank of each particular field is its published literature and that the most important and most characteristic information sources of a given field are surveyed in reviews and progress reports evaluating the published literature critically. The present study therefore analyses the references appended to some of such reviews and progress reports. The percentage distribution of the references of four reviews published between 1970 and 1975 was calculated with respects to their appearing in journals or nonjournals including books, conference proceedings, reports and patents. Statistic taken from 1.4 million references, which appeared in the 1961 literature, disclosed that 84% of these references are to journal articles. (F.Gy.)

  5. Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Water Quality data in Indian River Lagoon, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, M.; Ye, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Indian River Lagoon, is part of the longest barrier island complex in the United States, is a region of particular concern to the environmental scientist because of the rapid rate of human development throughout the region and the geographical position in between the colder temperate zone and warmer sub-tropical zone. Thus, the surface water quality analysis in this region always brings the newer information. In this present study, multivariate statistical procedures were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal water quality in the Indian River Lagoon over the period 1998-2013. Twelve parameters have been analyzed on twelve key water monitoring stations in and beside the lagoon on monthly datasets (total of 27,648 observations). The dataset was treated using cluster analysis (CA), principle component analysis (PCA) and non-parametric trend analysis. The CA was used to cluster twelve monitoring stations into four groups, with stations on the similar surrounding characteristics being in the same group. The PCA was then applied to the similar groups to find the important water quality parameters. The principal components (PCs), PC1 to PC5 was considered based on the explained cumulative variances 75% to 85% in each cluster groups. Nutrient species (phosphorus and nitrogen), salinity, specific conductivity and erosion factors (TSS, Turbidity) were major variables involved in the construction of the PCs. Statistical significant positive or negative trends and the abrupt trend shift were detected applying Mann-Kendall trend test and Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK), for each individual stations for the important water quality parameters. Land use land cover change pattern, local anthropogenic activities and extreme climate such as drought might be associated with these trends. This study presents the multivariate statistical assessment in order to get better information about the quality of surface water. Thus, effective pollution control/management of the surface

  6. Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

    1989-10-01

    This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  7. Multiyear Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Volta River Basin and their Potential Impact on Hydropower Generation in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos T. Kabo-Bah

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960–2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965–2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana.

  8. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  9. Assessing the gap in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology: trends over a 20-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, Kristopher; Ramonas, Milita; Patlas, Michael; Katz, Douglas S

    2017-12-01

    To examine trends in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology from January 1994 to December 2014. We obtained institutional review board approval for our study. We retrospectively reviewed a total of 1617 articles published in the journal Emergency Radiology over a 20-year period. Original articles, case reports, review articles, and pictorial essays were included. The first and last position author's gender was categorized as female or male. We analyzed trends by comparing the first and last position authors of original articles from the first and last year reviewed. We utilized Chi-square test for statistical analysis, with a p value gender of 96% of the authors. Overall, female authors were 21% of first position authors (290 of 1368) and 15% of last position authors (183 of 1246). Thirty-two percent of articles with female last position authors also had female first position authors (58 of 183). There was a statistically significant increase in female last position authors, from 12.9% in 1994 to 21.3% in 2014 (p = 0.026), a non-significant increase in female first position authors, from 17.5% in 1994 to 20.9% in 2014 (p = 0.514), and a non-significant increase in articles with both a first and last female author, from 25% in 1994 to 35% in 2014 (p = 0.593). Over the last 20 years, there has been a statistically significant upward trend in female last position authors publishing in the journal Emergency Radiology.

  10. Indirectional statistics and the significance of an asymmetry discovered by Birch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kendall, D.G.; Young, G.A.

    1984-01-01

    Birch (1982, Nature, 298, 451) reported an apparent 'statistical asymmetry of the Universe'. The authors here develop 'indirectional analysis' as a technique for investigating statistical effects of this kind and conclude that the reported effect (whatever may be its origin) is strongly supported by the observations. The estimated pole of the asymmetry is at RA 13h 30m, Dec. -37deg. The angular error in its estimation is unlikely to exceed 20-30deg. (author)

  11. Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

    2001-09-01

    This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

  12. Back to "once a caesarean: always a caesarean"? A trend analysis in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christmann-Schmid, Corina; Raio, Luigi; Scheibner, Katrin; Müller, Martin; Surbek, Daniel

    2016-11-01

    Caesarean sections (CS) have significantly increased worldwide and a previous CS is nowadays an important and increasingly reported indication to perform a repeat CS. There is a paucity of information in Switzerland on the incidence of repeat CS after previous CS and relationship between the rates of vaginal birth after CS (VBAC). The aim of this study was to analyse the actual trend in VBAC in Switzerland. We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyse the proportion of VBAC among all pregnant women with previous sections which give birth during two time periods (group 1:1998/1999 vs. group 2:2004/2005) in our tertiary care referral hospital and in the annual statistics of Swiss Women's Hospitals (ASF-Statistics). In addition, the proportion of induction of labour after a previous caesarean and its success was analysed. In both cohorts studied, we found a significant decrease of vaginal births (p Switzerland. There was no significant change in labour induction during the study period. While this trend might reflect an increasing demand for safety in pregnancy and childbirth, it concomitantly increases maternal risks of further pregnancies, and women need to be appropriately informed about long-term risks.

  13. Statistical processing of technological and radiochemical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahodova, Zdena; Vonkova, Kateřina

    2011-01-01

    The project described in this article had two goals. The main goal was to compare technological and radiochemical data from two units of nuclear power plant. The other goal was to check the collection, organization and interpretation of routinely measured data. Monitoring of analytical and radiochemical data is a very valuable source of knowledge for some processes in the primary circuit. Exploratory analysis of one-dimensional data was performed to estimate location and variability and to find extreme values, data trends, distribution, autocorrelation etc. This process allowed for the cleaning and completion of raw data. Then multiple analyses such as multiple comparisons, multiple correlation, variance analysis, and so on were performed. Measured data was organized into a data matrix. The results and graphs such as Box plots, Mahalanobis distance, Biplot, Correlation, and Trend graphs are presented in this article as statistical analysis tools. Tables of data were replaced with graphs because graphs condense large amounts of information into easy-to-understand formats. The significant conclusion of this work is that the collection and comprehension of data is a very substantial part of statistical processing. With well-prepared and well-understood data, its accurate evaluation is possible. Cooperation between the technicians who collect data and the statistician who processes it is also very important. (author)

  14. Development and application of a methodology for the analysis of significant human related event trends in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, H.Y.

    1981-01-01

    A methodology is developed to identify and flag significant trends related to the safety and availability of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The development is intended to aid in reducing likelihood of human errors. To assure that the methodology can be easily adapted to various types of classification schemes of operation data, a data bank classified by the Transient Analysis Classification and Evaluation (TRACE) scheme is selected for the methodology. The significance criteria for human-initiated events affecting the systems and for events caused by human deficiencies were developed. Clustering analysis was used to verify the learning trend in multidimensional histograms. A computer code is developed based on the K-Means algorithm and applied to find the learning period in which error rates are monotonously decreasing with plant age. The Freeman-Tukey (F-T) deviates are used to select generic problems identified by a large positive value (here approximately over 2.0) for the deviate. The identified generic problems are: decision errors which are highly associated with reactor startup operations in the learning period of PWR plants (PWRs), response errors which are highly associated with Secondary Non-Nuclear Systems (SNS) in PWRs, and significant errors affecting systems and which are caused by response action are highly associated with startup reactor mode in BWRS

  15. Statistical evaluation of internal contamination data in the man following the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarroni, G.; Battisti, P.; Melandri, C.; Castellani, C.M.; Formignani, M.

    1989-01-01

    The main implications of the general interest derived from the statistical analysis of the internal human contamination data obtained by ENEA-PAS with Whole Body Counter mesurements performed in Bologna in consequence of the Chernobyl accident are presented. In particular the trend with time of the individual body activity of members of a homogeneous group, the variability of individual contamination in ralation to the mean contamination, the statistical distribution of the data, the significance of mean values concerning small, homogeneous groups of subjects, the difference between subjects of different sex and its trend with time, are examined. Finally, the substantial independence of the individual committed dose equivalent evaluation due to the Chernobyl contamination on the Whole from the hypothesized values of the metabolic parameters is pointed out when the evaluation is performed on the basis of direct measurements with a Whole Body Counter

  16. An Analysis of Research Trends in Dissertations and Theses Studying Blended Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drysdale, Jeffery S.; Graham, Charles R.; Spring, Kristian J.; Halverson, Lisa R.

    2013-01-01

    This article analyzes the research of 205 doctoral dissertations and masters' theses in the domain of blended learning. A summary of trends regarding the growth and context of blended learning research is presented. Methodological trends are described in terms of qualitative, inferential statistics, descriptive statistics, and combined approaches…

  17. Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

  18. An Examination of Cooper's Test for Monotonic Trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Louis

    1977-01-01

    A statistic for testing monotonic trend that has been presented in the literature is shown not to be the binomial random variable it is contended to be, but rather it is linearly related to Kendall's tau statistic. (JKS)

  19. Is a shift from research on individual medical error to research on health information technology underway? A 40-year analysis of publication trends in medical journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlewein, Daniel; Bruni, Tommaso; Gadebusch Bondio, Mariacarla

    2018-06-07

    In 1983, McIntyre and Popper underscored the need for more openness in dealing with errors in medicine. Since then, much has been written on individual medical errors. Furthermore, at the beginning of the 21st century, researchers and medical practitioners increasingly approached individual medical errors through health information technology. Hence, the question arises whether the attention of biomedical researchers shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology. We ran a study to determine publication trends concerning individual medical errors and health information technology in medical journals over the last 40 years. We used the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) taxonomy in the database MEDLINE. Each year, we analyzed the percentage of relevant publications to the total number of publications in MEDLINE. The trends identified were tested for statistical significance. Our analysis showed that the percentage of publications dealing with individual medical errors increased from 1976 until the beginning of the 21st century but began to drop in 2003. Both the upward and the downward trends were statistically significant (P information technology doubled between 2003 and 2015. The upward trend was statistically significant (P information technology in the USA and the UK. © 2018 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  20. Future role and significance of space activities in reflection of global social, technological and economic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekmann, Andreas; Richarz, Hans.-Peter

    The paper describes the interrelation of space activities and global socio-economic trends like "globalisation of markets" and "renaissance of fine arts". The interrelation reveals the economic strategic, technological and scientific dimension of space activities and their benefits to mankind. Then, the significance and perspectives of space activities in these dimensions are examined in more detail. The paper calls (1) for a more visible initiative to employ space activities to tackle urgent questions of global change and development, and (2) for a stronger impetus to secure European economic position in space sector as a key industry of the 21st century.

  1. Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

    2014-01-01

    To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

  2. Youth Suicide Trends in Finland, 1969-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahti, Anniina; Rasanen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa; Keranen, Sirpa; Hakko, Helina

    2011-01-01

    Background: There are only a few recent studies on secular trends in child and adolescent suicides. We examine here trends in rates and methods of suicide among young people in Finland, where suicide rates at these ages are among the highest in the world. Methods: The data, obtained from Statistics Finland, consisted of all suicides (n = 901)…

  3. Rapid Classification and Identification of Multiple Microorganisms with Accurate Statistical Significance via High-Resolution Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Gelio; Wang, Guanghui; Ogurtsov, Aleksey Y; Drake, Steven K; Gucek, Marjan; Sacks, David B; Yu, Yi-Kuo

    2018-06-05

    Rapid and accurate identification and classification of microorganisms is of paramount importance to public health and safety. With the advance of mass spectrometry (MS) technology, the speed of identification can be greatly improved. However, the increasing number of microbes sequenced is complicating correct microbial identification even in a simple sample due to the large number of candidates present. To properly untwine candidate microbes in samples containing one or more microbes, one needs to go beyond apparent morphology or simple "fingerprinting"; to correctly prioritize the candidate microbes, one needs to have accurate statistical significance in microbial identification. We meet these challenges by using peptide-centric representations of microbes to better separate them and by augmenting our earlier analysis method that yields accurate statistical significance. Here, we present an updated analysis workflow that uses tandem MS (MS/MS) spectra for microbial identification or classification. We have demonstrated, using 226 MS/MS publicly available data files (each containing from 2500 to nearly 100,000 MS/MS spectra) and 4000 additional MS/MS data files, that the updated workflow can correctly identify multiple microbes at the genus and often the species level for samples containing more than one microbe. We have also shown that the proposed workflow computes accurate statistical significances, i.e., E values for identified peptides and unified E values for identified microbes. Our updated analysis workflow MiCId, a freely available software for Microorganism Classification and Identification, is available for download at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CBBresearch/Yu/downloads.html . Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

  4. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

    2008-01-01

    to 1969 who attended primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality. 135,223 girls and 21,612 boys fulfilled the criteria for determining age at OGS and age at PHV. These physiological events were used as markers of pubertal development in our computerized method in order to evaluate any secular trends...... in pubertal maturation during the study period (year of birth 1930 to 1969). In this period, age at OGS declined statistically significantly by 0.2 and 0.4 years in girls and boys, respectively, whereas age at PHV declined statistically significantly by 0.5 and 0.3 years in girls and boys, respectively...

  5. Assessing Statistically Significant Heavy-Metal Concentrations in Abandoned Mine Areas via Hot Spot Analysis of Portable XRF Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sung-Min; Choi, Yosoon

    2017-06-18

    To develop appropriate measures to prevent soil contamination in abandoned mining areas, an understanding of the spatial variation of the potentially toxic trace elements (PTEs) in the soil is necessary. For the purpose of effective soil sampling, this study uses hot spot analysis, which calculates a z -score based on the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify a statistically significant hot spot sample. To constitute a statistically significant hot spot, a feature with a high value should also be surrounded by other features with high values. Using relatively cost- and time-effective portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) analysis, sufficient input data are acquired from the Busan abandoned mine and used for hot spot analysis. To calibrate the PXRF data, which have a relatively low accuracy, the PXRF analysis data are transformed using the inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) data. The transformed PXRF data of the Busan abandoned mine are classified into four groups according to their normalized content and z -scores: high content with a high z -score (HH), high content with a low z -score (HL), low content with a high z -score (LH), and low content with a low z -score (LL). The HL and LH cases may be due to measurement errors. Additional or complementary surveys are required for the areas surrounding these suspect samples or for significant hot spot areas. The soil sampling is conducted according to a four-phase procedure in which the hot spot analysis and proposed group classification method are employed to support the development of a sampling plan for the following phase. Overall, 30, 50, 80, and 100 samples are investigated and analyzed in phases 1-4, respectively. The method implemented in this case study may be utilized in the field for the assessment of statistically significant soil contamination and the identification of areas for which an additional survey is required.

  6. Assessing Statistically Significant Heavy-Metal Concentrations in Abandoned Mine Areas via Hot Spot Analysis of Portable XRF Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Min Kim

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To develop appropriate measures to prevent soil contamination in abandoned mining areas, an understanding of the spatial variation of the potentially toxic trace elements (PTEs in the soil is necessary. For the purpose of effective soil sampling, this study uses hot spot analysis, which calculates a z-score based on the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify a statistically significant hot spot sample. To constitute a statistically significant hot spot, a feature with a high value should also be surrounded by other features with high values. Using relatively cost- and time-effective portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF analysis, sufficient input data are acquired from the Busan abandoned mine and used for hot spot analysis. To calibrate the PXRF data, which have a relatively low accuracy, the PXRF analysis data are transformed using the inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES data. The transformed PXRF data of the Busan abandoned mine are classified into four groups according to their normalized content and z-scores: high content with a high z-score (HH, high content with a low z-score (HL, low content with a high z-score (LH, and low content with a low z-score (LL. The HL and LH cases may be due to measurement errors. Additional or complementary surveys are required for the areas surrounding these suspect samples or for significant hot spot areas. The soil sampling is conducted according to a four-phase procedure in which the hot spot analysis and proposed group classification method are employed to support the development of a sampling plan for the following phase. Overall, 30, 50, 80, and 100 samples are investigated and analyzed in phases 1–4, respectively. The method implemented in this case study may be utilized in the field for the assessment of statistically significant soil contamination and the identification of areas for which an additional survey is required.

  7. Trends in the training of female urology residents in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Katherine; Tennankore, Karthik; Cox, Ashley

    2017-12-22

    There is limited research on why females do or do not choose a career in urology. Considering the increasing proportion of female medical students, we assessed for trends in female applicants to urology programs in Canada and their post-residency career choices. Data from the Canadian Residency Matching Service (CaRMS) was used (1998-2015). Trends in the proportions of females applying and matching to surgical subspecialties, and applying and matching to urology were computed. Surveys were sent to urology program directors to assess female residents' chosen career paths over the last decade. A significant increasing trend in the proportion of females applying to urology as their first choice program was found (0.19 in 1998-99 to 0.27 in 2012-15; p=0.04). An increasing trend in the proportion of females successfully matching to urology was found, although it was not statistically significant (0.13 in 1998-99 to 0.24 in 2012-15; p=0.07). This was in keeping with the trends found for surgical programs overall. Female graduates choose a variety of career paths with urogynecology being the most common fellowship (26%). The last two decades has seen an increase in the proportion of female students applying to urology in Canada. Female urology graduates pursue a variety of career paths. It remains imperative that both female and male medical students have early exposure and education about our subspecialty to ensure we continue to recruit the most talented candidates.

  8. Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part II-An Analysis of Trend Detection and Attribution Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, P Steven; Rao, S Trivikrama; Zurbenko, Igor G; Dunker, Alan M; Wolff, George T

    2001-02-01

    Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O 3 air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O 3 to emission control policies.

  9. Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Carl F.

    A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

  10. Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somsubhra Chattopadhyay

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky. Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any.

  11. National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vital Statistics Online National Death Index NCHS National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Provisional number of marriages and marriage rate: United States, 2000-2014 Year ...

  12. Trends and Issues: Social and Economic Context. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Chris, Comp.

    This document presents an outline of a number of social, economic, and demographic trends that influence the effectiveness of instruction and the social development of youth across the country. It contains numbers and statistics, recommendations, and implications, along with 30 references. The document covers trends in the following areas: (1)…

  13. Power of tests for comparing trend curves with application to national immunization survey (NIS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhen

    2011-02-28

    To develop statistical tests for comparing trend curves of study outcomes between two socio-demographic strata across consecutive time points, and compare statistical power of the proposed tests under different trend curves data, three statistical tests were proposed. For large sample size with independent normal assumption among strata and across consecutive time points, the Z and Chi-square test statistics were developed, which are functions of outcome estimates and the standard errors at each of the study time points for the two strata. For small sample size with independent normal assumption, the F-test statistic was generated, which is a function of sample size of the two strata and estimated parameters across study period. If two trend curves are approximately parallel, the power of Z-test is consistently higher than that of both Chi-square and F-test. If two trend curves cross at low interaction, the power of Z-test is higher than or equal to the power of both Chi-square and F-test; however, at high interaction, the powers of Chi-square and F-test are higher than that of Z-test. The measurement of interaction of two trend curves was defined. These tests were applied to the comparison of trend curves of vaccination coverage estimates of standard vaccine series with National Immunization Survey (NIS) 2000-2007 data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

    2018-04-01

    In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

  15. Ten-year secular trend of overweight and obesity in school children in south-eastern Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Mazur

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from south-eastern Poland over a 10-year period. Materials and Method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected primary schools. In total, 4,248 children (2,182 boys and 2,066 girls, mean age 10.5±2.4 years, were examined in 1998, and 2,412 children (1,184 boys and 1,228 girls, mean age 10.5±2.3 years in 2008. In each school the entire population was studied. Results. In 2008, the prevalence of overweight in girls was 13.3% and obesity 7.7%, compared to 12.0% and 10.1% in 1998. The decrease in obesity prevalence was statistically significant. In boys, the prevalence of overweight in 2008 was 14.2% and obesity 6.4%, compared to 10.5% and 6.8% in 1998. The increase in overweight prevalence among boys was statistically significant. Conclusions. A trend toward stabilization of the prevalence of overweight and obesity was noted in school children from south-eastern Poland between 1998–2008. The declining prevalence of obesity in girls and increased prevalence of overweight in boys demonstrates that in this age group of children the secular trend is gender dependent.

  16. Australian energy statistics - Australian energy update 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donaldson, K.

    2005-06-15

    ABARE's energy statistics include comprehensive coverage of Australian energy consumption, by state, by industry and by fuel. Australian Energy Update 2005 provides an overview of recent trends and description of the full coverage of the dataset. There are 14 Australian energy statistical tables available as free downloads (product codes 13172 to 13185).

  17. Parametric statistical inference basic theory and modern approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Zacks, Shelemyahu; Tsokos, C P

    1981-01-01

    Parametric Statistical Inference: Basic Theory and Modern Approaches presents the developments and modern trends in statistical inference to students who do not have advanced mathematical and statistical preparation. The topics discussed in the book are basic and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a jumping board for in-depth study. The book is organized into eight chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of how the theory of statistical inference is presented in subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 briefly discusses statistical distributions and their properties. Chapt

  18. Statistically significant faunal differences among Middle Ordovician age, Chickamauga Group bryozoan bioherms, central Alabama

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crow, C.J.

    1985-01-01

    Middle Ordovician age Chickamauga Group carbonates crop out along the Birmingham and Murphrees Valley anticlines in central Alabama. The macrofossil contents on exposed surfaces of seven bioherms have been counted to determine their various paleontologic characteristics. Twelve groups of organisms are present in these bioherms. Dominant organisms include bryozoans, algae, brachiopods, sponges, pelmatozoans, stromatoporoids and corals. Minor accessory fauna include predators, scavengers and grazers such as gastropods, ostracods, trilobites, cephalopods and pelecypods. Vertical and horizontal niche zonation has been detected for some of the bioherm dwelling fauna. No one bioherm of those studied exhibits all 12 groups of organisms; rather, individual bioherms display various subsets of the total diversity. Statistical treatment (G-test) of the diversity data indicates a lack of statistical homogeneity of the bioherms, both within and between localities. Between-locality population heterogeneity can be ascribed to differences in biologic responses to such gross environmental factors as water depth and clarity, and energy levels. At any one locality, gross aspects of the paleoenvironments are assumed to have been more uniform. Significant differences among bioherms at any one locality may have resulted from patchy distribution of species populations, differential preservation and other factors.

  19. Trends in Surface-Water Nitrate-N Concentrations and Loads from Predominantly-Forested Watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshleman, K. N.

    2011-12-01

    Water quality monitoring data from streams and rivers provide the "gold standard" by which progress toward achieving real reductions in nutrient loadings to Chesapeake Bay must ultimately be assessed. The most recent trend results posted at the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) website reveal that a substantial percentage of tributaries are now showing long-term declines in flow-adjusted concentrations of nutrients and sediments: 22 sites showed statistically significant (p pollution controls for improved wastewater treatment plants and practices to reduce nutrients on farms and suburban lands, have reduced concentrations of nitrogen." But could this conclusion be pre-mature? I recently undertook a comparable analysis of long-term nitrate-N trends for a different group of watersheds (all located in the Chesapeake Bay watershed with long data records); this group includes nine watersheds that are predominantly (i.e., >75%) forested, plus five other Potomac River subwatersheds added for comparison. Based on comparable data and analytical methods to those used by CBP partners and USGS, 13 of the 14 sites-including both Potomac River stations (Chain Bridge at Washington DC and Hancock, Maryland)-showed statistically significant decreasing linear trends in annual flow-weighted nitrate-N concentration. Only one station-the heavily agricultural Upper Monocacy River-did not show a statistically significant (p RIM station could be entirely explained by commensurate improvements at the upstream (Hancock) station; in fact, no trend in nitrate-N concentration associated with the eastern portion of the basin was found (after subtracting out the influence of the upstream portion). Additional research is needed to understand why nitrogen retention by forested lands may be increasing and thus helping restore water quality throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The results also have obvious implications for meeting local water quality goals as well as the basin-wide goal of the

  20. Detecting Statistically Significant Communities of Triangle Motifs in Undirected Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-26

    Systems, Statistics & Management Science, University of Alabama, USA. 1 DISTRIBUTION A: Distribution approved for public release. Contents 1 Summary 5...13 5 Application to Real Networks 18 5.1 2012 FBS Football Schedule Network... football schedule network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 14 Stem plot of degree-ordered vertices versus the degree for college football

  1. Trends in space activities in 2014: The significance of the space activities of governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paikowsky, Deganit; Baram, Gil; Ben-Israel, Isaac

    2016-01-01

    This article addresses the principal events of 2014 in the field of space activities, and extrapolates from them the primary trends that can be identified in governmental space activities. In 2014, global space activities centered on two vectors. The first was geopolitical, and the second relates to the matrix between increasing commercial space activities and traditional governmental space activities. In light of these two vectors, the article outlines and analyzes trends of space exploration, human spaceflights, industry and technology, cooperation versus self-reliance, and space security and sustainability. It also reviews the space activities of the leading space-faring nations.

  2. Structure and Origins of Trends in Hydrological Measures over the western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, T; Hidalgo, H G; Dettinger, M D; Cayan, D R; Pierce, D W; Bonfils, C; Barnett, T P; Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2008-08-22

    This study examines, at 1/8 degree spatial resolution, the geographic structure of observed trends in key hydrologically relevant variables across the western United States (U.S.) over the period 1950-1999, and investigates whether these trends are statistically significantly different from trends associated with natural climate variations. A number of variables were analyzed, including late winter and spring temperature, winter-total snowy days as a fraction of winter-total wet days, 1st April Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) as a fraction of October through March precipitation total (P{sub ONDJFM}), and seasonal (January-February-March; JFM) accumulated runoff as a fraction of water year accumulated runoff. The observed changes were compared to natural internal climate variability simulated by an 850-year control run of the CCSM3-FV climate model, statistically downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid using the method of Constructed Analogues. Both observed and downscaled temperature and precipitation data were then used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to obtain the hydrological variables analyzed in this study. Large trends (magnitudes found less than 5% of the time in the long control run) are common in the observations, and occupy substantial part of the area (37-42%) over the mountainous western U.S. These trends are strongly related to the large scale warming that appears over 89% of the domain. The strongest changes in the hydrologic variables, unlikely to be associated with natural variability alone, have occurred at medium elevations (750 m to 2500 m for JFM runoff fractions and 500 m-3000 m for SWE/PONDJFM) where warming has pushed temperatures from slightly below to slightly above freezing. Further analysis using the data on selected catchments across the simulation domain indicated that hydroclimatic variables must have changed significantly (at 95% confidence level) over at least 45% of the total catchment area to achieve a

  3. Trends in Extreme Climate Indices for Pará State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos

    Full Text Available Abstract The present study aimed to analyze trends in air temperature and rainfall for 13 locations in the state of Pará using nonparametric tests. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation covering the period 1970-2006, collected by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET have been used. From the results obtained it was observed that the number of warm days and nights per year has increased, thereby providing a significant reduction in the number of cool days and nights in the state. Due to the high space-time variability of precipitation, few localities showed statistically significant trends for indices of extremes dependent on this variable. The days and nights in Belém have been hotter in the last two decades. Therefore, these results are important for future planning of public health and energy for the state of Para, which must adapt to future warming scenarios sectors.

  4. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  5. Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

    2015-10-01

    To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

  6. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  7. Conducting tests for statistically significant differences using forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Westfall; Scott A. Pugh; John W. Coulston

    2013-01-01

    Many forest inventory and monitoring programs are based on a sample of ground plots from which estimates of forest resources are derived. In addition to evaluating metrics such as number of trees or amount of cubic wood volume, it is often desirable to make comparisons between resource attributes. To properly conduct statistical tests for differences, it is imperative...

  8. Historical Perspectives and Recent Trends in the Coastal Mozambican Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica L. Blythe

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Historical data describing changing social-ecological interactions in marine systems can help guide small-scale fisheries management efforts. Fisheries landings data are often the primary source for historical reconstructions of fisheries; however, we argue that reliance on data of a single type and/or from a single scale can lead to potentially misleading conclusions. For example, a narrow focus on aggregate landings statistics can mask processes and trends occurring at local scales, as well as the complex social changes that result from and precipitate marine ecosystem change. Moreover, in the case of many small-scale fisheries, landings statistics are often incomplete and/or inaccurate. We draw on case study research in Mozambique that combines national landings statistics and career history interviews with fish harvesters to generate a multi-scale historical reconstruction that describes social-ecological interactions within the coastal Mozambican fishery. At the national level, our analysis points toward trends of fishing intensification and decline in targeted species, and it highlights the significant impact of small-scale fisheries on marine stocks. At the local level, fishers are experiencing changes in fish abundance and distribution, as well as in their physical, social, and cultural environments, and have responded by increasing their fishing effort. We conclude with a discussion of the governance implications of our methodological approach and findings.

  9. How to construct the statistic network? An association network of herbaceous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WenJun Zhang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In present study I defined a new type of network, the statistic network. The statistic network is a weighted and non-deterministic network. In the statistic network, a connection value, i.e., connection weight, represents connection strength and connection likelihood between two nodes and its absolute value falls in the interval (0,1]. The connection value is expressed as a statistical measure such as correlation coefficient, association coefficient, or Jaccard coefficient, etc. In addition, all connections of the statistic network can be statistically tested for their validity. A connection is true if the connection value is statistically significant. If all connection values of a node are not statistically significant, it is an isolated node. An isolated node has not any connection to other nodes in the statistic network. Positive and negative connection values denote distinct connectiontypes (positive or negative association or interaction. In the statistic network, two nodes with the greater connection value will show more similar trend in the change of their states. At any time we can obtain a sample network of the statistic network. A sample network is a non-weighted and deterministic network. Thestatistic network, in particular the plant association network that constructed from field sampling, is mostly an information network. Most of the interspecific relationships in plant community are competition and cooperation. Therefore in comparison to animal networks, the methodology of statistic network is moresuitable to construct plant association networks. Some conclusions were drawn from this study: (1 in the plant association network, most connections are weak and positive interactions. The association network constructed from Spearman rank correlation has most connections and isolated taxa are fewer. From net linear correlation,linear correlation, to Spearman rank correlation, the practical number of connections and connectance in the

  10. Authorship Trends of Emergency Medicine Publications over the Last Two Decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Richard; Simunich, Thomas; Ashurst, John

    2016-05-01

    With the recent merger of the American Osteopathic Association (AOA) and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) a heightened pressure for publication may become evident. Our objective was to determine whether there was a gap in the type of both medical degree designation and advanced degree designation among authorship in three United States-based academic emergency medicine journals. We reviewed the Journal of Emergency Medicine, Academic Emergency Medicine and Annals of Emergency Medicine for the type of degree designation that the first and senior authors had obtained for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014. A total of 2.48% of all authors held a degree in osteopathic medicine. Osteopathic physician first authors contributed to 3.26% of all publications while osteopathic physician senior authors contributed 1.53%. No statistical trend could be established for the years studied for osteopathic physicians. However, we noted an overall trend for increased publication for allopathic senior authors (p=0.001), allopathic first authors with a dual degree (p=0.003) and allopathic senior authors with a dual degree (p=0.005). For each journal studied, no statistical trend could be established for osteopathic first or senior authors but a trend was noted for allopathic first and senior authors in the Journal of Emergency Medicine (p-value=0.020 and 0.006). Of those with dual degrees, osteopathic physicians were in the minority with 1.85% of osteopathic first authors and 0.60% of osteopathic senior authors attaining a dual degree. No statistical trend could be established for increased dual degree publications for osteopathic physicians over the study period, nor could a statistical trend be established for any of the journals studied. Very few osteopathic physicians have published in the Journal of Emergency Medicine, Academic Emergency Medicine or Annals of Emergency Medicine over the last two decades. Despite a trend for increased

  11. Prevalence of self-reported arterial hypertension in Brazilian capitals in 2011 and analysis of its trends in the period between 2006 and 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvania Suely Caribé de Araújo Andrade

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of self-reported arterial hypertension in the adult population in the Brazilian state capitals and Federal District in 2011, and analyze the trend from 2006 to 2011. METHODS: A time series study was conducted with data from the monitoring system by telephone survey (Vigitel in the period between 2006 and 2011. Approximately 54,000 individuals were assessed per year in the locations studied. A polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis according to gender, age, education and region of the country. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension was 22.7% in 2011, higher in women (25.4%; 95%CI 24.2 - 26.5 than in men (19.5%; 95%CI 18.4 - 20.7. In the period between 2006 and 2011, the lower frequency of hypertension was observed in 2006 (21.5%, and the higher in 2009 (24.4%, with no statistically significant difference in the period. CONCLUSION: There was no significant sex-specific trend, maintaining the higher frequency among women. The prevalence of hypertension increased progressively with age and was higher among adults with lower education (0 - 8 years of study. The South was the only region that showed a statistically significant increasing trend for the years between 2006 and 2011 (15% per year.

  12. Prevalence of self-reported arterial hypertension in Brazilian capitals in 2011 and analysis of its trends in the period between 2006 and 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Silvania Suely Caribé de Araújo; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Iser, Betine Moehlecke; Sampaio, Patricia Chueri; de Moura, Lenildo

    2014-01-01

    To describe the prevalence of self-reported arterial hypertension in the adult population in the Brazilian state capitals and Federal District in 2011, and analyze the trend from 2006 to 2011. A time series study was conducted with data from the monitoring system by telephone survey (Vigitel) in the period between 2006 and 2011. Approximately 54,000 individuals were assessed per year in the locations studied. A polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis according to gender, age, education and region of the country. The prevalence of hypertension was 22.7% in 2011, higher in women (25.4%; 95%CI 24.2 - 26.5) than in men (19.5%; 95%CI 18.4 - 20.7). In the period between 2006 and 2011, the lower frequency of hypertension was observed in 2006 (21.5%), and the higher in 2009 (24.4%), with no statistically significant difference in the period. There was no significant sex-specific trend, maintaining the higher frequency among women. The prevalence of hypertension increased progressively with age and was higher among adults with lower education (0 - 8 years of study). The South was the only region that showed a statistically significant increasing trend for the years between 2006 and 2011 (15% per year).

  13. Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

    2017-03-15

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

    2015-06-01

    Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

  15. The distribution of P-values in medical research articles suggested selective reporting associated with statistical significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perneger, Thomas V; Combescure, Christophe

    2017-07-01

    Published P-values provide a window into the global enterprise of medical research. The aim of this study was to use the distribution of published P-values to estimate the relative frequencies of null and alternative hypotheses and to seek irregularities suggestive of publication bias. This cross-sectional study included P-values published in 120 medical research articles in 2016 (30 each from the BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine). The observed distribution of P-values was compared with expected distributions under the null hypothesis (i.e., uniform between 0 and 1) and the alternative hypothesis (strictly decreasing from 0 to 1). P-values were categorized according to conventional levels of statistical significance and in one-percent intervals. Among 4,158 recorded P-values, 26.1% were highly significant (P values values equal to 1, and (3) about twice as many P-values less than 0.05 compared with those more than 0.05. The latter finding was seen in both randomized trials and observational studies, and in most types of analyses, excepting heterogeneity tests and interaction tests. Under plausible assumptions, we estimate that about half of the tested hypotheses were null and the other half were alternative. This analysis suggests that statistical tests published in medical journals are not a random sample of null and alternative hypotheses but that selective reporting is prevalent. In particular, significant results are about twice as likely to be reported as nonsignificant results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Women victims of intentional homicide in Italy: New insights comparing Italian trends to German and U.S. trends, 2008-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Claudio; Zen, Margherita

    2018-01-01

    National statistics on female homicide could be a useful tool to evaluate the phenomenon and plan adequate strategies to prevent and reduce this crime. The aim of the study is to contribute to the analysis of intentional female homicides in Italy by comparing Italian trends to German and United States trends from 2008 to 2014. This is a population study based on data deriving primarily from national and European statistical institutes, from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting and from the National Center for Health Statistics. Data were analyzed in relation to trends and age by Chi-square test, Student's t-test and linear regression. Results show that female homicides, unlike male homicides, remained stable in the three countries. Regression analysis showed a higher risk for female homicide in all age groups in the U.S. Middle-aged women result at higher risk, and the majority of murdered women are killed by people they know. These results confirm previous findings and suggest the need to focus also in Italy on preventive strategies to reduce those precipitating factors linked to violence and present in the course of a relationship or within the family. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  17. Temperature Trend Detection in Upper Indus Basin by Using Mann-Kendall Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ateeq Ur Rauf

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and Climate change are commonly acknowledged as the most noteworthy environmental quandary the world is undergoing today. Contemporary studies have revealed that the Earth’s surface air temperature has augmented by 0.6°C – 0.8°C in the course of the 20th century, together with alterations in the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on detecting trends in seasonal temperature for the five selected stations in the Upper Indus Basin. The Mann-Kendall test was run at 5% significance level on time series data for each of the five stations during the time period, 1985 to 2014. The Standard Test Statistic (Zs indicates the presence of trend and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The analysis showed an increasing trend in mean monthly temperature at Astore, Gilgit and Gupiz in March and a decreasing trend for Astore, Drosh, Gilgit and Skardu in September. Gilgit and Gupiz showed unexpected increasing trend in October. This study concludes that the temperature starts increasing in March and stays elevated till the month of June and starts rising again in October thus resulting in expansion of summer season and prolonged glacial melting.

  18. Monthly bulletin of statistics. May 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  19. Monthly bulletin of statistics. January 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  20. Monthly bulletin of statistics. July 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  1. Monthly bulletin of statistics. June 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  2. Monthly bulletin of statistics. September 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  3. Monthly bulletin of statistics. December 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  4. Monthly bulletin of statistics. July 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  5. Monthly bulletin of statistics. September 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  6. Monthly bulletin of statistics. March 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  7. Monthly bulletin of statistics. October 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  8. Monthly bulletin of statistics. October 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  9. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. July 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  10. Monthly bulletin of statistics. March 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  11. Monthly bulletin of statistics. February 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  12. Monthly bulletin of statistics. June 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  13. Monthly bulletin of statistics. November 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this publication is to present current monthly economic statistics for most of the countries and territories of the world. In addition, each month a different selection of special tables is presented showing annual and/or quarterly data on a variety of subjects illustrating important economic long-term trends and developments. Most of these special tables are also reproduced in the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. It is, however, considered to be useful to publish these data in the Bulletin as soon as they become available so that readers may have immediate access to the most current international statistical information

  14. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  15. Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan

    2009-03-01

    Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

  16. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  17. Trend Analyses of Nitrate in Danish Groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, B.; Thorling, L.; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2012-01-01

    This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis of distribut......This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis...... of distribution, trends and trend reversals in the groundwater nitrate concentration. Secondly, knowledge about the N surplus in Danish agriculture since 1950 is used as an indicator of the potential loss of N. Thirdly, groundwater recharge CFC (Chlorofluorocarbon) age determination allows linking of the first...... two dataset. The development in the nitrate concentration of oxic groundwater clearly mirrors the development in the national agricultural N surplus, and a corresponding trend reversal is found in groundwater. Regulation and technical improvements in the intensive farming in Denmark have succeeded...

  18. Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

  19. Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

    2000-01-01

    convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

  20. [Hydrologic variability and sensitivity based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Xu; Xie, Ping; Wu, Zi Yi; Sang, Yan Fang; Zhao, Jiang Yan; Li, Bin Bin

    2018-04-01

    Due to the global climate change and frequent human activities in recent years, the pure stochastic components of hydrological sequence is mixed with one or several of the variation ingredients, including jump, trend, period and dependency. It is urgently needed to clarify which indices should be used to quantify the degree of their variability. In this study, we defined the hydrological variability based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic, and used Monte Carlo statistical tests to test and analyze their sensitivity to different variants. When the hydrological sequence had jump or trend variation, both Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic could reflect the variation, with the Hurst coefficient being more sensitive to weak jump or trend variation. When the sequence had period, only the Bartels statistic could detect the mutation of the sequence. When the sequence had a dependency, both the Hurst coefficient and the Bartels statistics could reflect the variation, with the latter could detect weaker dependent variations. For the four variations, both the Hurst variability and Bartels variability increased with the increases of variation range. Thus, they could be used to measure the variation intensity of the hydrological sequence. We analyzed the temperature series of different weather stations in the Lancang River basin. Results showed that the temperature of all stations showed the upward trend or jump, indicating that the entire basin had experienced warming in recent years and the temperature variability in the upper and lower reaches was much higher. This case study showed the practicability of the proposed method.

  1. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

    2010-01-01

    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  2. Seven Important Labor Force Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, John A.

    1982-01-01

    Presents statistics on the changing human resources mix in the labor force, which vocational counselors should be aware of. Trends include higher percentages of women working, and older men and married men leaving the work force. One result is an increasing number of persons are able to retire earlier. (JAC)

  3. Trends of diabetic nephropathy prevalence in Isfahan, Iran, during 1992-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tohid Jafari-Koshki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder and its subsequent complications such as retinopathy, nephropathy, ulcers, disability, and amputation increase the burden of the disease. Patient knowledge-improving programs are employed to prevent disease progression and to improve the quality of life of the patients. In this way, we need to characterize the groups of patients in urgent need for more and rich-in-content programs. In the present study, we used piecewise regression to evaluate the trends of diabetic nephropathy prevalence in patients registered in the Sedigheh-Tahereh Research Center and to identify patients who were in need of more attention. Materials and Methods: Piecewise regression, used in this study, is a statistical method to identify change points, if any, in the trends of mortality rates, prevalence of a disease, or any other trends. Available information for 1,935 patients were retrieved from the database. Joinpoint program 3.5.3 and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 20 was used to fit piecewise regression and obtain descriptive statistics, respectively. Results: We assessed the trend of diabetic nephropathy in different groups of diabetic patients with respect to sex, blood pressure status, education, family history of diabetes, and age. The results showed an increasing trend in females, patients without family history of diabetes, and eover th recent years. The prevalence of diabetic nephropathy in patients with academic education was high. Conclusion: The groups with high prevalence or increasing trends need more preventive intervention and detailed assessment of the present trends. Exploring high-risk groups is beneficial for better policy-making in the future. However, discovering the reasons for the increased trend of the disease is really helpful in controlling diabetes complications.

  4. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  5. Statistical Inference and Patterns of Inequality in the Global North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Timothy Patrick

    2006-01-01

    Cross-national inequality trends have historically been a crucial field of inquiry across the social sciences, and new methodological techniques of statistical inference have recently improved the ability to analyze these trends over time. This paper applies Monte Carlo, bootstrap inference methods to the income surveys of the Luxembourg Income…

  6. Asymmetric statistical features of the Chinese domestic and international gold price fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Guangxi; Zhao, Yingchao; Han, Yan

    2015-05-01

    Analyzing the statistical features of fluctuation is remarkably significant for financial risk identification and measurement. In this study, the asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) method was applied to evaluate asymmetric multifractal scaling behaviors in the Shanghai and New York gold markets. Our findings showed that the multifractal features of the Chinese and international gold spot markets were asymmetric. The gold return series persisted longer in an increasing trend than in a decreasing trend. Moreover, the asymmetric degree of multifractals in the Chinese and international gold markets decreased with the increase in fluctuation range. In addition, the empirical analysis using sliding window technology indicated that multifractal asymmetry in the Chinese and international gold markets was characterized by its time-varying feature. However, the Shanghai and international gold markets basically shared a similar asymmetric degree evolution pattern. The American subprime mortgage crisis (2008) and the European debt crisis (2010) enhanced the asymmetric degree of the multifractal features of the Chinese and international gold markets. Furthermore, we also make statistical tests for the results of multifractatity and asymmetry, and discuss the origin of them. Finally, results of the empirical analysis using the threshold autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (TARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models exhibited that good news had a more significant effect on the cyclical fluctuation of the gold market than bad news. Moreover, good news exerted a more significant effect on the Chinese gold market than on the international gold market.

  7. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is

  8. Trends in marine fish catches at Pattani Fishery Port (1999-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanchamai Karntanut

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of the various types of marine fish landed at Pattani Fishery Port, allowing for trend and seasonality, using official data during 1999-2003. The data comprise daily and monthly totals by weight for eight types of fish (mackerel, other food fish, squid, scads, trash fish, shrimp, lobster and crab. The statistical methods are one-way analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and time series forecasting using trend and seasonal models. It is found that mackerel, other food fish and squid catches tend to decrease, whereas the catches of scads tend to increase, and trash fish catches have no detectable trend up or down. Shrimp and lobster tend to decrease exponentially, and the trend of crab catch is constant. This study raises questions about the ecological and economic sustainability of the current fisheries policy in Thailand.

  9. The System of Indicators for the Statistical Evaluation of Market Conjuncture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chernenko Daryna I.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at systematizing and improving the system of statistical indicators for the market of laboratory health services (LHS and developing methods for their calculation. In the course of formation of the system of statistical indicators for the market of LHS, allocation of nine blocks has been proposed: market size; proportionality of market; market demand; market proposal; level and dynamics of prices; variation of the LHS; dynamics, development trends, and cycles of the market; market structure; level of competition and monopolization. The proposed system of statistical indicators together with methods for their calculation should ensure studying the trends and regularities in formation of the market for laboratory health services in Ukraine.

  10. Statistical time lags in ac discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobota, A; Kanters, J H M; Van Veldhuizen, E M; Haverlag, M; Manders, F

    2011-01-01

    The paper presents statistical time lags measured for breakdown events in near-atmospheric pressure argon and xenon. Ac voltage at 100, 400 and 800 kHz was used to drive the breakdown processes, and the voltage amplitude slope was varied between 10 and 1280 V ms -1 . The values obtained for the statistical time lags are roughly between 1 and 150 ms. It is shown that the statistical time lags in ac-driven discharges follow the same general trends as the discharges driven by voltage of monotonic slope. In addition, the validity of the Cobine-Easton expression is tested at an alternating voltage form.

  11. Statistical time lags in ac discharges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobota, A; Kanters, J H M; Van Veldhuizen, E M; Haverlag, M [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Applied Physics, Postbus 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Manders, F, E-mail: a.sobota@tue.nl [Philips Lighting, LightLabs, Mathildelaan 1, 5600JM Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2011-04-06

    The paper presents statistical time lags measured for breakdown events in near-atmospheric pressure argon and xenon. Ac voltage at 100, 400 and 800 kHz was used to drive the breakdown processes, and the voltage amplitude slope was varied between 10 and 1280 V ms{sup -1}. The values obtained for the statistical time lags are roughly between 1 and 150 ms. It is shown that the statistical time lags in ac-driven discharges follow the same general trends as the discharges driven by voltage of monotonic slope. In addition, the validity of the Cobine-Easton expression is tested at an alternating voltage form.

  12. GPU-computing in econophysics and statistical physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    A recent trend in computer science and related fields is general purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPUs), which can yield impressive performance. With multiple cores connected by high memory bandwidth, today's GPUs offer resources for non-graphics parallel processing. This article provides a brief introduction into the field of GPU computing and includes examples. In particular computationally expensive analyses employed in financial market context are coded on a graphics card architecture which leads to a significant reduction of computing time. In order to demonstrate the wide range of possible applications, a standard model in statistical physics - the Ising model - is ported to a graphics card architecture as well, resulting in large speedup values.

  13. Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

    2015-01-01

    Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

  14. Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopatin, E. (Univ. of Joensuu (Finland)); Kolstroem, T. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar (Russian Federation)); Spiecker, H. (Univ. of Freiburg (Germany))

    2008-07-01

    Komi is situated on the eastern boundary of the European part of Russia, in the boreal region where large areas of natural forest still exist. Using radial growth measurements it was possible to attain positive long-term trends of growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in the Komi Republic. Increases in the radial growth of Siberian spruce in the forest-tundra were 134% and in the northern taiga zone 35% over successive 50-year periods from 1901 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2000. Respectively, in the middle taiga zone a 76% increase in radial growth was found (over 100 years), whilst in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The increase in radial growth of Scots pine in the northern taiga zone was 32%. In the middle taiga zone the radial growth increase in Scots pine was 55% and in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The long-term growth trends of Komi were compared with those in other parts of Europe. (orig.)

  15. Using Global Trends as Catalysts for City Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebalska, Bogna Anna

    2017-01-01

    and acting in response to the events or it can miss the chance, losing in the global competition. There is a considerable interest in finding, what influences city's prosperity. Global trends and the socio-demographic evolution are recognized as main overall powers. This study examines how these forces...... stimulate cities and how to employ them in a development process, in order to achieve a successful city transition. Searching for essential elements directing towards inclusive and successful city transition, the urbanization is studied. Global processes influence cities significantly with individual......, different outcomes, what is examined in case study part. Case study provides cross sector analyses of three European cities, basing on national statistics, international and local databases. The study indicates that global forces and local conditions are of similar significance for city development. Case...

  16. Elementary statistics for effective library and information service management

    CERN Document Server

    Egghe, Leo

    2001-01-01

    This title describes how best to use statistical data to produce professional reports on library activities. The authors cover data gathering, sampling, graphical representation of data and summary statistics from data, and also include a section on trend analysis. A full bibliography and a subject index make this a key title for any information professional..

  17. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  18. Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations

    CERN Document Server

    Kessler, Mathieu; Sorensen, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The seventh volume in the SemStat series, Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations presents current research trends and recent developments in statistical methods for stochastic differential equations. Written to be accessible to both new students and seasoned researchers, each self-contained chapter starts with introductions to the topic at hand and builds gradually towards discussing recent research. The book covers Wiener-driven equations as well as stochastic differential equations with jumps, including continuous-time ARMA processes and COGARCH processes. It presents a sp

  19. Causes of spring vegetation growth trends in the northern mid–high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mao Jiafu; Shi Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E; Piao Shilong; Wang Xuhui

    2012-01-01

    The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial–temporal patterns of spring (April–May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid–high latitudes (NMH) (>25°N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI–temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity. (letter)

  20. Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiafu [ORNL; Shi, Xiaoying [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Shilong, Dr. Piao [Peking University; Xuhui, Dr. Wang [Peking University

    2012-01-01

    The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.

  1. Statistical ecology comes of age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

  2. Statistical ecology comes of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-12-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

  3. Decadal trends in beach morphology on the east coast of South Africa and likely causative factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Sandy shorelines are dynamic with constant changes that can cause hazards in developed areas. The causes of change may be either natural or anthropogenic. This paper evaluates evidence for shoreline changes and their causative factors using a case study on the east coast of South Africa. Beach morphology trends were found to be location-specific, but overall the beaches show a receding trend. It was hypothesized that wave, tide, sea level and wind trends as well as anthropogenic influences are causative factors, and their contributions to shoreline changes were evaluated. Maximum significant wave heights, average wave direction, peak period and storm event frequencies all show weak increasing trends, but only the increases in peak period and wave direction are statistically significant. The chronic beach erosion cannot be attributed to wave climate changes since they are still too small to explain the observations. Instead, the impacts of sea level rise and reductions in the supply of beach sediments are suggested as the main causative factors. The analysis also identifies a trend in the frequency of severe erosion events due to storms that coincide with a 4.5-yr extreme tide cycle, which demonstrates the potential impact of future sea level rise.

  4. Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

    2015-02-01

    The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

  5. Simultaneous analysis of climatic trends in multiple variables: an example of application of multivariate statistical methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan; Pokorná, Lucie

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 25, - (2005), s. 469-484 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA3017301 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climatic trends * trend consistency * principal component analysis * cluster analysis * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.622, year: 2005

  6. Sigsearch: a new term for post hoc unplanned search for statistically significant relationships with the intent to create publishable findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Muhammad Jawad

    2010-09-01

    Post-hoc secondary data analysis with no prespecified hypotheses has been discouraged by textbook authors and journal editors alike. Unfortunately no single term describes this phenomenon succinctly. I would like to coin the term "sigsearch" to define this practice and bring it within the teaching lexicon of statistics courses. Sigsearch would include any unplanned, post-hoc search for statistical significance using multiple comparisons of subgroups. It would also include data analysis with outcomes other than the prespecified primary outcome measure of a study as well as secondary data analyses of earlier research.

  7. Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

  8. Trends in the Use of School Choice: 1993 to 2007. Statistical Analysis Report. NCES 2010-004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, Sarah; Bielick, Stacey; Aud, Susan

    2010-01-01

    This report updates two previous reports: "Trends in the Use of School Choice: 1993 to 1999" (Bielick and Chapman 2003) and "Trends in the Use of School Choice: 1993 to 2003" (Tice et al. 2006). Using data from the National Household Education Survey (NHES) of the U.S. Department of Education's National Center for Education…

  9. Estimation of Nitrate Trends in the Groundwater of the Zagreb Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Kovač

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Nitrates present one of the main groundwater contaminants in the world and in the Zagreb aquifer. The Zagreb aquifer presents the main source of potable water for the inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and it is protected by the Republic of Croatia. The determination of contaminants trends presents one of the main tools in groundwater body status and risk assessment. In this paper, the use of regression analysis on the aggregated data, together with confidence and prediction intervals, at different observation scales has been evaluated. Nitrate concentrations are generally decreasing in almost all areas, observed at different observation scales. It has been shown that linear regression can be efficiently used in the estimation of nitrates trends. Results showed that the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals can provide more useful conclusions than the calculation of the trend’s statistical significance. Also, the results suggest that confidence and prediction intervals can be used in groundwater body chemical status and risk assessment, respectively. Data smoothing and data aggregation are generally desirable, but have certain limitations. If too much data is aggregated, trend estimation by regression analysis can point to false conclusions. Evaluation of trends at different observational scales can provide more realistic trend estimation, as well as more precise identification of areas where groundwater protection measures should be implemented.

  10. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  11. Suicide rate trends in the Slovak Republic in 1993-2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brazinova, Alexandra; Moravansky, Norbert; Gulis, Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicide is a significant public health issue worldwide, resulting in loss of lives, and burdening societies. AIMS: To describe and analyze the time trends of suicide rates (SRs) in the Slovak Republic in 1993-2015 for targeted suicide prevention strategies. METHODS: Data for this study...... were obtained from the mortality database of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. Crude and standardized annual SRs were calculated. Trends and relative risks of suicide according to age and sex were analyzed by joinpoint regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In total......, there were 14,575 suicides in the Slovak Republic in the period 1993-2015 (85.3% were men). The overall average age-standardized SR for the study period was 11.45 per 100,000 person years. The rate increases with age, the highest is in men aged 75+ (42.74 per 100,000 person years). Risk of suicide is six...

  12. Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. U. Hasson

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l. for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012 and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961–2012. For this, a Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field- significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995–2012, we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September, which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July. Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961–2012, most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime

  14. Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Lucarini, Valerio

    2017-05-01

    Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961-2012). For this, a Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961-2012), most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in

  15. Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

  16. Trends in Child Poverty Using an Improved Measure of Poverty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimer, Christopher; Nam, JaeHyun; Waldfogel, Jane; Fox, Liana

    2016-04-01

    The official measure of poverty has been used to assess trends in children's poverty rates for many decades. But because of flaws in official poverty statistics, these basic trends have the potential to be misleading. We use an augmented Current Population Survey data set that calculates an improved measure of poverty to reexamine child poverty rates between 1967 and 2012. This measure, the Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure, is based partially on the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics' new Supplemental Poverty Measure. We focus on 3 age groups of children, those aged 0 to 5, 6 to 11, and 12 to 17 years. Young children have the highest poverty rates, both historically and today. However, among all age groups, long-term poverty trends have been more favorable than official statistics would suggest. This is entirely due to the effect of counting resources from government policies and programs, which have reduced poverty rates substantially for children of all ages. However, despite this progress, considerable disparities in the risk of poverty continue to exist by education level and family structure. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    2017-08-16

    Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

  18. Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

    1993-01-01

    We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

  19. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  20. On the Statistical Validation of Technical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosane Riera Freire

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis, or charting, aims on visually identifying geometrical patterns in price charts in order to antecipate price "trends". In this paper we revisit the issue of thecnical analysis validation which has been tackled in the literature without taking care for (i the presence of heterogeneity and (ii statistical dependence in the analyzed data - various agglutinated return time series from distinct financial securities. The main purpose here is to address the first cited problem by suggesting a validation methodology that also "homogenizes" the securities according to the finite dimensional probability distribution of their return series. The general steps go through the identification of the stochastic processes for the securities returns, the clustering of similar securities and, finally, the identification of presence, or absence, of informatinal content obtained from those price patterns. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data exercise including several securities of the global market. Our investigation shows that there is a statistically significant informational content in two out of three common patterns usually found through technical analysis, namely: triangle, rectangle and head and shoulders.

  1. Intelligent system for statistically significant expertise knowledge on the basis of the model of self-organizing nonequilibrium dissipative system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Tatokchin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of the modern educational technologies caused by broad introduction of comput-er testing and development of distant forms of education does necessary revision of methods of an examination of pupils. In work it was shown, need transition to mathematical criteria, exami-nations of knowledge which are deprived of subjectivity. In article the review of the problems arising at realization of this task and are offered approaches for its decision. The greatest atten-tion is paid to discussion of a problem of objective transformation of rated estimates of the ex-pert on to the scale estimates of the student. In general, the discussion this question is was con-cluded that the solution to this problem lies in the creation of specialized intellectual systems. The basis for constructing intelligent system laid the mathematical model of self-organizing nonequilibrium dissipative system, which is a group of students. This article assumes that the dissipative system is provided by the constant influx of new test items of the expert and non-equilibrium – individual psychological characteristics of students in the group. As a result, the system must self-organize themselves into stable patterns. This patern will allow for, relying on large amounts of data, get a statistically significant assessment of student. To justify the pro-posed approach in the work presents the data of the statistical analysis of the results of testing a large sample of students (> 90. Conclusions from this statistical analysis allowed to develop intelligent system statistically significant examination of student performance. It is based on data clustering algorithm (k-mean for the three key parameters. It is shown that this approach allows you to create of the dynamics and objective expertise evaluation.

  2. Trends in sickness absence in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Kristina; Bihrmann, Kristine; Mikkelsen, Sigurd

    2009-01-01

    's Authority, and the Labor Force Survey indicated a stable and largely unaltered pattern of sickness absence during the last 20 years. Findings from Statistics Denmark showed an increase in the cumulative incidence proportion from 6.6 to 7.5% among employed people between 2000 and 2007. CONCLUSION: Our data...... a linear regression analysis to analyze time trends in sickness absence based on datasets from the Danish Employers Confederation, the State Employer's Authority, the Labour Force Survey, and Statistics Denmark. RESULTS: The findings from the Confederation of Danish Employers, the State Employer...

  3. Statistical process control charts for monitoring military injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh, Anna; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Jones, Bruce H

    2017-12-01

    An essential aspect of an injury prevention process is surveillance, which quantifies and documents injury rates in populations of interest and enables monitoring of injury frequencies, rates and trends. To drive progress towards injury reduction goals, additional tools are needed. Statistical process control charts, a methodology that has not been previously applied to Army injury monitoring, capitalise on existing medical surveillance data to provide information to leadership about injury trends necessary for prevention planning and evaluation. Statistical process control Shewhart u-charts were created for 49 US Army installations using quarterly injury medical encounter rates, 2007-2015, for active duty soldiers obtained from the Defense Medical Surveillance System. Injuries were defined according to established military injury surveillance recommendations. Charts display control limits three standard deviations (SDs) above and below an installation-specific historical average rate determined using 28 data points, 2007-2013. Charts are available in Army strategic management dashboards. From 2007 to 2015, Army injury rates ranged from 1254 to 1494 unique injuries per 1000 person-years. Installation injury rates ranged from 610 to 2312 injuries per 1000 person-years. Control charts identified four installations with injury rates exceeding the upper control limits at least once during 2014-2015, rates at three installations exceeded the lower control limit at least once and 42 installations had rates that fluctuated around the historical mean. Control charts can be used to drive progress towards injury reduction goals by indicating statistically significant increases and decreases in injury rates. Future applications to military subpopulations, other health outcome metrics and chart enhancements are suggested. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. Trends in skiing injury type and rates in Australia. A review of 22,261 injuries over 27 years in the Snowy Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, E; Fenelon, L

    1991-10-21

    To show the trends in the rate and type of skiing injuries in Australia. A retrospective analysis of skiing injuries in the Snowy Mountains from 1962 to 1988. All injuries were seen and treated at the Ski Injury Clinic in Perisher Valley. A total of 22,261 injuries were seen over this 27 year period (data for 1963, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1978, 1981 and 1982 were missing). Injured skiers were treated at the Clinic with a small number sent to main centres for tertiary care. The overall injury rate (1962-1988) and the specific injury rate for six subgroups of injuries (1974-1988) were calculated. The overall injury rate declined dramatically over this period. The incidence of tibial fractures, ankle injuries and lacerations also declined. Upper body injuries continue to rise although this trend was not statistically significant. There was a statistically significant increase in knee injuries. The trends reported here are similar to those overseas except that the incidence of thumb injuries has not changed in Australia. The changes in the rates of lacerations, and tibial and ankle injuries can be related to improvements in ski bindings and boots.

  5. The Importance of Integrating Clinical Relevance and Statistical Significance in the Assessment of Quality of Care--Illustrated Using the Swedish Stroke Register.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Lindmark

    Full Text Available When profiling hospital performance, quality inicators are commonly evaluated through hospital-specific adjusted means with confidence intervals. When identifying deviations from a norm, large hospitals can have statistically significant results even for clinically irrelevant deviations while important deviations in small hospitals can remain undiscovered. We have used data from the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke to illustrate the properties of a benchmarking method that integrates considerations of both clinical relevance and level of statistical significance.The performance measure used was case-mix adjusted risk of death or dependency in activities of daily living within 3 months after stroke. A hospital was labeled as having outlying performance if its case-mix adjusted risk exceeded a benchmark value with a specified statistical confidence level. The benchmark was expressed relative to the population risk and should reflect the clinically relevant deviation that is to be detected. A simulation study based on Riksstroke patient data from 2008-2009 was performed to investigate the effect of the choice of the statistical confidence level and benchmark value on the diagnostic properties of the method.Simulations were based on 18,309 patients in 76 hospitals. The widely used setting, comparing 95% confidence intervals to the national average, resulted in low sensitivity (0.252 and high specificity (0.991. There were large variations in sensitivity and specificity for different requirements of statistical confidence. Lowering statistical confidence improved sensitivity with a relatively smaller loss of specificity. Variations due to different benchmark values were smaller, especially for sensitivity. This allows the choice of a clinically relevant benchmark to be driven by clinical factors without major concerns about sufficiently reliable evidence.The study emphasizes the importance of combining clinical relevance and level of statistical

  6. The Importance of Integrating Clinical Relevance and Statistical Significance in the Assessment of Quality of Care--Illustrated Using the Swedish Stroke Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindmark, Anita; van Rompaye, Bart; Goetghebeur, Els; Glader, Eva-Lotta; Eriksson, Marie

    2016-01-01

    When profiling hospital performance, quality inicators are commonly evaluated through hospital-specific adjusted means with confidence intervals. When identifying deviations from a norm, large hospitals can have statistically significant results even for clinically irrelevant deviations while important deviations in small hospitals can remain undiscovered. We have used data from the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) to illustrate the properties of a benchmarking method that integrates considerations of both clinical relevance and level of statistical significance. The performance measure used was case-mix adjusted risk of death or dependency in activities of daily living within 3 months after stroke. A hospital was labeled as having outlying performance if its case-mix adjusted risk exceeded a benchmark value with a specified statistical confidence level. The benchmark was expressed relative to the population risk and should reflect the clinically relevant deviation that is to be detected. A simulation study based on Riksstroke patient data from 2008-2009 was performed to investigate the effect of the choice of the statistical confidence level and benchmark value on the diagnostic properties of the method. Simulations were based on 18,309 patients in 76 hospitals. The widely used setting, comparing 95% confidence intervals to the national average, resulted in low sensitivity (0.252) and high specificity (0.991). There were large variations in sensitivity and specificity for different requirements of statistical confidence. Lowering statistical confidence improved sensitivity with a relatively smaller loss of specificity. Variations due to different benchmark values were smaller, especially for sensitivity. This allows the choice of a clinically relevant benchmark to be driven by clinical factors without major concerns about sufficiently reliable evidence. The study emphasizes the importance of combining clinical relevance and level of statistical confidence when

  7. Statistical Yearbook of Norway 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Statistical Yearbook of Norway 2012 contains statistics on Norway and main figures for the Nordic countries and other countries selected from international statistics. The international over-views are integrated with the other tables and figures. The selection of tables in this edition is mostly the same as in the 2011 edition. The yearbook's 480 tables and figures present the main trends in official statistics in most areas of society. The list of tables and figures and an index at the back of the book provide easy access to relevant information. In addition, source information and Internet addresses below the tables make the yearbook a good starting point for those who are looking for more detailed statistics. The statistics are based on data gathered in statistical surveys and from administrative data, which, in cooperation with other public institutions, have been made available for statistical purposes. Some tables have been prepared in their entirety by other public institutions. The statistics follow approved principles, standards and classifications that are in line with international recommendations and guidelines. Content: 00. General subjects; 01. Environment; 02. Population; 03. Health and social conditions; 04. Education; 05. Personal economy and housing conditions; 06. Labour market; 07. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities; 08. Prices and indices; 09. National Economy and external trade; 10. Industrial activities; 11. Financial markets; 12. Public finances; Geographical survey.(eb)

  8. Statistical Yearbook of Norway 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Statistical Yearbook of Norway 2012 contains statistics on Norway and main figures for the Nordic countries and other countries selected from international statistics. The international over-views are integrated with the other tables and figures. The selection of tables in this edition is mostly the same as in the 2011 edition. The yearbook's 480 tables and figures present the main trends in official statistics in most areas of society. The list of tables and figures and an index at the back of the book provide easy access to relevant information. In addition, source information and Internet addresses below the tables make the yearbook a good starting point for those who are looking for more detailed statistics. The statistics are based on data gathered in statistical surveys and from administrative data, which, in cooperation with other public institutions, have been made available for statistical purposes. Some tables have been prepared in their entirety by other public institutions. The statistics follow approved principles, standards and classifications that are in line with international recommendations and guidelines. Content: 00. General subjects; 01. Environment; 02. Population; 03. Health and social conditions; 04. Education; 05. Personal economy and housing conditions; 06. Labour market; 07. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities; 08. Prices and indices; 09. National Economy and external trade; 10. Industrial activities; 11. Financial markets; 12. Public finances; Geographical survey.(eb)

  9. Estimates of statistical significance for comparison of individual positions in multiple sequence alignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadreyev Ruslan I

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile-based analysis of multiple sequence alignments (MSA allows for accurate comparison of protein families. Here, we address the problems of detecting statistically confident dissimilarities between (1 MSA position and a set of predicted residue frequencies, and (2 between two MSA positions. These problems are important for (i evaluation and optimization of methods predicting residue occurrence at protein positions; (ii detection of potentially misaligned regions in automatically produced alignments and their further refinement; and (iii detection of sites that determine functional or structural specificity in two related families. Results For problems (1 and (2, we propose analytical estimates of P-value and apply them to the detection of significant positional dissimilarities in various experimental situations. (a We compare structure-based predictions of residue propensities at a protein position to the actual residue frequencies in the MSA of homologs. (b We evaluate our method by the ability to detect erroneous position matches produced by an automatic sequence aligner. (c We compare MSA positions that correspond to residues aligned by automatic structure aligners. (d We compare MSA positions that are aligned by high-quality manual superposition of structures. Detected dissimilarities reveal shortcomings of the automatic methods for residue frequency prediction and alignment construction. For the high-quality structural alignments, the dissimilarities suggest sites of potential functional or structural importance. Conclusion The proposed computational method is of significant potential value for the analysis of protein families.

  10. Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.; Lombardo, Federico

    2018-01-01

    The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further

  11. Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordli, Ø.; Wielgolaski, F. E.; Bakken, A. K.; Hjeltnes, S. H.; Måge, F.; Sivle, A.; Skre, O.

    2008-09-01

    Data series for bud burst, beginning of flowering and petal fall for 20 species of deciduous trees and conifers at four sites in different regions of southern Norway have been analysed and related to temperature series. On average, the spring phenophases occurred 7 days earlier during the period 1971-2005. The most significant linear trends were observed for the earliest phases. The trends in this period were compared with trends in other periods, the longest one starting in 1927. Those starting in cold decades and ending in 2005 were in most instances statistically significant, whereas hardly any significant trend appeared for series starting in warm decades. This fact showed that the results of trend studies are very sensitive to the choice of starting year. There were significant decadal variations in 40% of the series. The dates of occurrence of the phenophases, varying from the first days of May to the first days of June, correlated with seasonal temperature series, in most cases strongest to mean temperatures for the seasons March-May and April-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) for January and February appeared to have some predictive power for the date of occurrence of the recorded phases. The basis for this may be that the oscillations described by the index are of importance for the fulfilment of physiological chilling requirements needed to break bud dormancy. The same genotypes of the trees were grown in region West Norway and in Central Norwegian region; during the period 1965-2005 the trends towards earlier bud burst were more pronounced and steeper at the western site.

  12. Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H

    2004-07-01

    This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O{sub X} (sum O{sub 3} of and NO{sub 2}) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative

  13. Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.

    2004-07-01

    This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O X (sum O 3 of and NO 2 ) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative trends of ozone

  14. Test the Overall Significance of p-values by Using Joint Tail Probability of Ordered p-values as Test Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst

    2008-01-01

    Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values

  15. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  16. Comparison of long-term Moscow and Danish NLC observations: statistical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Dalin

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Noctilucent clouds (NLC are the highest clouds in the Earth's atmosphere, observed close to the mesopause at 80–90 km altitudes. Systematic NLC observations conducted in Moscow for the period of 1962–2005 and in Denmark for 1983–2005 are compared and statistical results both for seasonally summarized NLC parameters and for individual NLC appearances are described. Careful attention is paid to the weather conditions during each season of observations. This turns out to be a very important factor both for the NLC case study and for long-term data set analysis. Time series of seasonal values show moderate similarity (taking into account the weather conditions but, at the same time, the comparison of individual cases of NLC occurrence reveals substantial differences. There are positive trends in the Moscow and Danish normalized NLC brightness as well as nearly zero trend in the Moscow normalized NLC occurrence frequency but these long-term changes are not statistically significant. The quasi-ten-year cycle in NLC parameters is about 1 year shorter than the solar cycle during the same period. The characteristic scale of NLC fields is estimated for the first time and it is found to be less than 800 km.

  17. GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, L.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Adhikari, S.; Nilsson, J.; Blewitt, G.

    2018-03-01

    We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (≤2 mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7 year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14 years of GRACE data in polar regions.

  18. The Trend of Women in Nuclear Security in Zimbabwe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sithole, P.; Chipuru, J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increase in the use of radiation technologies, each country now has a potential risk from nuclear related offenses or malicious use of radioactive material. Despite the major advancements women have made in becoming a significant part of the workforce in all the other fields, women in the field of Nuclear Security are underrepresented in Zimbabwe. Nuclear security contributes to global security and there are a number of things that constitute this field. In the past 10 years, in developing countries, a few women have been taking part in Nuclear Security activities at Major Public events. Less than 1% of women in Zimbabwe are employed and take part in Nuclear Security related work. This study provides the trend in statistics of women employed in the field of Nuclear Security in Zimbabwe and it has identified possible factors why women are underrepresented in that field. It shows the trend of women taking part in Nuclear Security related activities for the past 10 years. Women’s experiences of employment and career development in nuclear security were studied. The factors which hinder or support the career development of women employees in Nuclear Security or related work were identified. Practices which encourage and support women’s involvement in Nuclear Security were explored. A statistical analysis of local authority employment, using the Ministry of Labour, census of women in science and nuclear security related studies in the Population of Zimbabwe, and other relevant sources was carried out. This was to describe the wider context of women’s employment in Nuclear Security. A self-completion questionnaire to get information on personal attributes, age and preferred career paths for women was used. Solutions to the trend are suggested in the study. (author)

  19. Study designs, use of statistical tests, and statistical analysis software choice in 2015: Results from two Pakistani monthly Medline indexed journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaikh, Masood Ali

    2017-09-01

    Assessment of research articles in terms of study designs used, statistical tests applied and the use of statistical analysis programmes help determine research activity profile and trends in the country. In this descriptive study, all original articles published by Journal of Pakistan Medical Association (JPMA) and Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan (JCPSP), in the year 2015 were reviewed in terms of study designs used, application of statistical tests, and the use of statistical analysis programmes. JPMA and JCPSP published 192 and 128 original articles, respectively, in the year 2015. Results of this study indicate that cross-sectional study design, bivariate inferential statistical analysis entailing comparison between two variables/groups, and use of statistical software programme SPSS to be the most common study design, inferential statistical analysis, and statistical analysis software programmes, respectively. These results echo previously published assessment of these two journals for the year 2014.

  20. Internet applications, sites, trends and happenings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Raitt

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This column aims to draw your attention to various interesting Web sites that I have come across and that may appeal to you. It also aims to keep you up to date with news and views on Internet trends, developments and statistics. It offers essentially a personal selection rather than comprehensive coverage.

  1. Statistical analysis of quality control of automatic processor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu Yantao; Zhao Lei; Zhang Wei; Yan Shulin

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To strengthen the scientific management of automatic processor and promote QC, based on analyzing QC management chart for automatic processor by statistical method, evaluating and interpreting the data and trend of the chart. Method: Speed, contrast, minimum density of step wedge of film strip were measured everyday and recorded on the QC chart. Mean (x-bar), standard deviation (s) and range (R) were calculated. The data and the working trend were evaluated and interpreted for management decisions. Results: Using relative frequency distribution curve constructed by measured data, the authors can judge whether it is a symmetric bell-shaped curve or not. If not, it indicates a few extremes overstepping control limits possibly are pulling the curve to the left or right. If it is a normal distribution, standard deviation (s) is observed. When x-bar +- 2s lies in upper and lower control limits of relative performance indexes, it indicates the processor works in stable status in this period. Conclusion: Guided by statistical method, QC work becomes more scientific and quantified. The authors can deepen understanding and application of the trend chart, and improve the quality management to a new step

  2. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  3. Statistical determination of significant curved I-girder bridge seismic response parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Junwon

    2013-06-01

    Curved steel bridges are commonly used at interchanges in transportation networks and more of these structures continue to be designed and built in the United States. Though the use of these bridges continues to increase in locations that experience high seismicity, the effects of curvature and other parameters on their seismic behaviors have been neglected in current risk assessment tools. These tools can evaluate the seismic vulnerability of a transportation network using fragility curves. One critical component of fragility curve development for curved steel bridges is the completion of sensitivity analyses that help identify influential parameters related to their seismic response. In this study, an accessible inventory of existing curved steel girder bridges located primarily in the Mid-Atlantic United States (MAUS) was used to establish statistical characteristics used as inputs for a seismic sensitivity study. Critical seismic response quantities were captured using 3D nonlinear finite element models. Influential parameters from these quantities were identified using statistical tools that incorporate experimental Plackett-Burman Design (PBD), which included Pareto optimal plots and prediction profiler techniques. The findings revealed that the potential variation in the influential parameters included number of spans, radius of curvature, maximum span length, girder spacing, and cross-frame spacing. These parameters showed varying levels of influence on the critical bridge response.

  4. Secular trends in parent-reported television viewing among children in the United States, 2001-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, P D; Davis, R E

    2016-03-01

    Examine trends in parent-reported television (TV) viewing among preschoolers (2-5 years) and children (6-11 years) between 2001 and 2012. Data from the 2001-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used. The analytic sample included 5724 preschoolers and 7104 children. Parent proxy of TV viewing at each of the six 2-year cycles was assessed. Statistically significant decreases in mean TV viewing between 2001 and 2012 were observed for preschoolers of nearly all gender, race-ethnicity and poverty combinations (exception of Mexican American boys), with the largest decrease occurring among non-Hispanic white boys (29% decrease; 2.24 h/day in 2001-2002 to 1.59 h/day in 2011-2012; P = .01). There was evidence of progressive decrease in mean TV viewing among children, but not to the extent that occurred among the preschool population. Across the six respective cycles for the entire preschool sample, the proportion watching <2 h/day of TV was: 34.9, 34.2, 43.9, 43.4, 39.1 and 49.2 (P(trend)  < .001). For children, the respective proportions were: 32.9, 25.2, 38.2, 36.5, 38.1 and 36.6 (P(trend)  = .01). Statistically significant decreases in mean TV viewing between 2001 and 2012 were observed for preschoolers and children. However, a relatively large proportion of parents report their children watching 2 or more hours/day of TV. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yingying; Pozzer, Andrea; Ojha, Narendra; Lin, Jintai; Lelieveld, Jos

    2018-04-01

    Surface-based measurements from the EMEP and Airbase networks are used to estimate the changes in surface ozone levels during the 1995-2014 period over Europe. We find significant ozone enhancements (0.20-0.59 µg m-3 yr-1 for the annual means; P-value climate model EMAC, the importance of anthropogenic emissions changes in determining these changes over background sites are investigated. The EMAC model is found to successfully capture the observed temporal variability in mean ozone concentrations, as well as the contrast in the trends of 95th and 5th percentile ozone over Europe. Sensitivity simulations and statistical analysis show that a decrease in European anthropogenic emissions had contrasting effects on surface ozone trends between the 95th and 5th percentile levels and that background ozone levels have been influenced by hemispheric transport, while climate variability generally regulated the inter-annual variations of surface ozone in Europe.

  6. Statistical analysis of lineaments and their relation to fracturing, faulting, and halokinesis in the East Texas Basin. Report of investigations No. 110

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dix, O.R.; Jackson, M.P.A.

    1981-01-01

    Lineament analysis is part of a broad spectrum of structural studies employed to determine the tectonic stability of the East Texas Basin. Such information is necessary to assess the suitability of East Texas salt domes as possible repository sites for the storage of high-level nuclear wastes. A sequence of statistical operations was designed to identify and assess the significance of lineament preferred orientation by means of a variety of statistical tests or parameters. Black-and-white aerial photographs, and band-5 Landsat imagery were analyzed. Well-defined, northeast-trending and northwest-trending lineament populations are present throughout the East Texas Basin. The northeast trend, comprising two peaks oriented at 045 0 and 055 0 , corresponds to the orientation of the Mexia-Talco peripheral fault zone, to subsurface faults in the center of the basin, and to some lithologic contacts. The northwest trend comprises two peaks oriented at 310 0 and 325 0 . Both the northeast and northwest trends are thought to result from preferential directions of fracture induced by interference folding at depth. Areas above shallow salt domes, particularly those in the southern part of the basin, are associated with higher lineament densities and lower preferred orientation of lineaments that are non-dome areas or areas above deep salt diapirs; this probably reflects radial and concentric fault and fracture patterns above the shallow domes. Analysis of computer-generated, geologically meaningless sets of lineaments strongly suggests that confidence levels of 99 percent are necessary to exclude randomly generated peaks, and that the significance of orthogonal pairsets has been exaggerated in the literature

  7. The World of Organic Agriculture - Statistics and Emerging Trends 2004

    OpenAIRE

    Willer, Helga; Yussefi, Minou

    2004-01-01

    In 1999, BioFach/Oekowelt GmbH commissioned Foundation Ecology & Agriculture SOEL to compile statistical data and general information on organic agriculture world-wide. Since then this study has been revised annually, and the newest figures are regularly presented at Biofach, which takes place in Nuremberg, Germany, every year. Since the 2003 edition the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL and the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM) have collaborated i...

  8. Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speaks, Crystal; McGlynn, Katherine A; Cook, Michael B

    2012-10-01

    The current working model of type II testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) pathogenesis states that carcinoma in situ arises during embryogenesis, is a necessary precursor, and always progresses to cancer. An implicit condition of this model is that only in utero exposures affect the development of TGCT in later life. In an age-period-cohort analysis, this working model contends an absence of calendar period deviations. We tested this contention using data from the SEER registries of the United States. We assessed age-period-cohort models of TGCTs, seminomas, and nonseminomas for the period 1973-2008. Analyses were restricted to whites diagnosed at ages 15-74 years. We tested whether calendar period deviations were significant in TGCT incidence trends adjusted for age deviations and cohort effects. This analysis included 32,250 TGCTs (18,475 seminomas and 13,775 nonseminomas). Seminoma incidence trends have increased with an average annual percentage change in log-linear rates (net drift) of 1.25 %, relative to just 0.14 % for nonseminoma. In more recent time periods, TGCT incidence trends have plateaued and then undergone a slight decrease. Calendar period deviations were highly statistically significant in models of TGCT (p = 1.24(-9)) and seminoma (p = 3.99(-14)), after adjustment for age deviations and cohort effects; results for nonseminoma (p = 0.02) indicated that the effects of calendar period were much more muted. Calendar period deviations play a significant role in incidence trends of TGCT, which indicates that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

  9. Detecting seasonal and cyclical trends in agricultural runoff water quality-hypothesis tests and block bootstrap power analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddameri, Venkatesh; Singaraju, Sreeram; Hernandez, E Annette

    2018-02-21

    Seasonal and cyclic trends in nutrient concentrations at four agricultural drainage ditches were assessed using a dataset generated from a multivariate, multiscale, multiyear water quality monitoring effort in the agriculturally dominant Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) River Watershed in South Texas. An innovative bootstrap sampling-based power analysis procedure was developed to evaluate the ability of Mann-Whitney and Noether tests to discern trends and to guide future monitoring efforts. The Mann-Whitney U test was able to detect significant changes between summer and winter nutrient concentrations at sites with lower depths and unimpeded flows. Pollutant dilution, non-agricultural loadings, and in-channel flow structures (weirs) masked the effects of seasonality. The detection of cyclical trends using the Noether test was highest in the presence of vegetation mainly for total phosphorus and oxidized nitrogen (nitrite + nitrate) compared to dissolved phosphorus and reduced nitrogen (total Kjeldahl nitrogen-TKN). Prospective power analysis indicated that while increased monitoring can lead to higher statistical power, the effect size (i.e., the total number of trend sequences within a time-series) had a greater influence on the Noether test. Both Mann-Whitney and Noether tests provide complementary information on seasonal and cyclic behavior of pollutant concentrations and are affected by different processes. The results from these statistical tests when evaluated in the context of flow, vegetation, and in-channel hydraulic alterations can help guide future data collection and monitoring efforts. The study highlights the need for long-term monitoring of agricultural drainage ditches to properly discern seasonal and cyclical trends.

  10. Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

    2018-03-01

    ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

  11. Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

    2018-02-01

    We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

  12. Statistics Education Research in Malaysia and the Philippines: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reston, Enriqueta; Krishnan, Saras; Idris, Noraini

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative analysis of statistics education research in Malaysia and the Philippines by modes of dissemination, research areas, and trends. An electronic search for published research papers in the area of statistics education from 2000-2012 yielded 20 for Malaysia and 19 for the Philippines. Analysis of these papers showed…

  13. An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

    2013-10-16

    A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio

  14. An analysis of suicide trends in Scotland 1950-2014: comparison with England & Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougall, Nadine; Stark, Cameron; Agnew, Tim; Henderson, Rob; Maxwell, Margaret; Lambert, Paul

    2017-12-20

    Scotland has disproportionately high rates of suicide compared with England. An analysis of trends may help reveal whether rates appear driven more by birth cohort, period or age. A 'birth cohort effect' for England & Wales has been previously reported by Gunnell et al. (B J Psych 182:164-70, 2003). This study replicates this analysis for Scotland, makes comparisons between the countries, and provides information on 'vulnerable' cohorts. Suicide and corresponding general population data were obtained from the National Records of Scotland, 1950 to 2014. Age and gender specific mortality rates were estimated. Age, period and cohort patterns were explored graphically by trend analysis. A pattern was found whereby successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 experienced higher suicide rates, in increasingly younger age groups, echoing findings reported for England & Wales. Young men (aged 20-39) were found to have a marked and statistically significant increase in suicide between those in the 1960 and 1965 birth cohorts. The 1965 cohort peaked in suicide rate aged 35-39, and the subsequent 1970 cohort peaked even younger, aged 25-29; it is possible that these 1965 and 1970 cohorts are at greater mass vulnerability to suicide than earlier cohorts. This was reflected in data for England & Wales, but to a lesser extent. Suicide rates associated with male birth cohorts subsequent to 1975 were less severe, and not statistically significantly different from earlier cohorts, suggestive of an amelioration of any possible influential 'cohort' effect. Scottish female suicide rates for all age groups converged and stabilised over time. Women have not been as affected as men, with less variation in patterns by different birth cohorts and with a much less convincing corresponding pattern suggestive of a 'cohort' effect. Trend analysis is useful in identifying 'vulnerable' cohorts, providing opportunities to develop suicide prevention strategies addressing these cohorts as they age.

  15. Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platnick, Steven E.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

  16. 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

  17. Evaluation of monthwise and overall trends of AOD over Indian cities using MODIS Aqua and Terra retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Subhasis; Ghosh, Sanjay

    2016-07-01

    care of seasonality in AOD values. Moreover we here used AQUA version 6 data set to compare with Terra 5.1. To our knowledge Aqua version 6 data set has yet not been used in any study over this region. In our study quality controlled "joint land and ocean" product (for almost one decade time) "Optical_Depth_Land_And_Ocean" (0.55 micron) has been used to estimate trend and only statistically significant trend (p=0.05 level) is only reported. We observed that thirty out of fifty cities show overall increasing trend in AOD by both the sensors whereas rest of the cities show increasing trend only by Aqua. Decadal increase in AOD value as reported by Terra is 2-10% whereas by Aqua 4-18%. Aqua consistently shows higher trend than Terra in all cases. After comparing data from both the sensors, we observed, for almost all the cities (except some cities lying in the southern part of the country) trend(increasing) is highest during the month of November, even in case of some north Indian cities November is the only month when significant trend is noticed. In case of most southern cities trend(increasing) is highest for the month of May. Strikingly, for most northern cities in the Indo-Gangetic plain Aqua shows significant overall trend whereas Terra shows no overall trend. But for southern cities both the sensors show similar trend. We also used AERONET level 2 data(0.50 micron) from Kanpur station to estimate trend using same method and found overall trend as estimated using Aqua (10 %) data is pretty close to that found using AERONET(9%)data.

  18. Statistically significant dependence of the Xaa-Pro peptide bond conformation on secondary structure and amino acid sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leitner Dietmar

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A reliable prediction of the Xaa-Pro peptide bond conformation would be a useful tool for many protein structure calculation methods. We have analyzed the Protein Data Bank and show that the combined use of sequential and structural information has a predictive value for the assessment of the cis versus trans peptide bond conformation of Xaa-Pro within proteins. For the analysis of the data sets different statistical methods such as the calculation of the Chou-Fasman parameters and occurrence matrices were used. Furthermore we analyzed the relationship between the relative solvent accessibility and the relative occurrence of prolines in the cis and in the trans conformation. Results One of the main results of the statistical investigations is the ranking of the secondary structure and sequence information with respect to the prediction of the Xaa-Pro peptide bond conformation. We observed a significant impact of secondary structure information on the occurrence of the Xaa-Pro peptide bond conformation, while the sequence information of amino acids neighboring proline is of little predictive value for the conformation of this bond. Conclusion In this work, we present an extensive analysis of the occurrence of the cis and trans proline conformation in proteins. Based on the data set, we derived patterns and rules for a possible prediction of the proline conformation. Upon adoption of the Chou-Fasman parameters, we are able to derive statistically relevant correlations between the secondary structure of amino acid fragments and the Xaa-Pro peptide bond conformation.

  19. APPLIED BEHAVIORAL FINANCE: INVESTOR BIASES, PERFORMANCE REVERSION TO THE MEAN and TREND FORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADRIAN MITROI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In the pursuit of understanding the behavior of the market player, the basic argument relays on the supposition that the risk appetite increases exactly at the worst moment - when the capacity to assume additional risk decreases significantly.People view a sample randomly drawn from a population as highly representative and cvasi similar to the population in all its essential characteristics. They expect any two samples drawn from a particular population to be more similar to one another and to the population than is statistically justifiable. This behavior is different from the tenets of classic finance theory. The paper aims at demonstating that investor psychological biases lead to investment performance to tilt to the mean in the long run and by following the trend, the financial market population do not enjoy significant sustainable benefits. As a reflection of the behavioral biases and influences, the statistical demonstration supports the conclusion that markets do not random walk.

  20. 9th Symposium on Computational Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Mildner, Vesna

    1990-01-01

    Although no-one is, probably, too enthused about the idea, it is a fact that the development of most empirical sciences to a great extent depends on the development of data analysis methods and techniques, which, due to the necessity of application of computers for that purpose, actually means that it practically depends on the advancement and orientation of computer statistics. Every other year the International Association for Statistical Computing sponsors the organizition of meetings of individual s professiona77y involved in computational statistics. Since these meetings attract professionals from allover the world, they are a good sample for the estimation of trends in this area which some believe is a statistics proper while others claim it is computer science. It seems, though, that an increasing number of colleagues treat it as an independent scientific or at least technical discipline. This volume contains six invited papers, 41 contributed papers and, finally, two papers which are, formally, softwa...

  1. CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND/VS. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILEANA BRUDIU

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Estimated parameters with confidence intervals and testing statistical assumptions used in statistical analysis to obtain conclusions on research from a sample extracted from the population. Paper to the case study presented aims to highlight the importance of volume of sample taken in the study and how this reflects on the results obtained when using confidence intervals and testing for pregnant. If statistical testing hypotheses not only give an answer "yes" or "no" to some questions of statistical estimation using statistical confidence intervals provides more information than a test statistic, show high degree of uncertainty arising from small samples and findings build in the "marginally significant" or "almost significant (p very close to 0.05.

  2. A multi-criteria evaluation system for marine litter pollution based on statistical analyses of OSPAR beach litter monitoring time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Marcus; Neumann, Daniel; Fleet, David M; Matthies, Michael

    2013-12-01

    During the last decades, marine pollution with anthropogenic litter has become a worldwide major environmental concern. Standardized monitoring of litter since 2001 on 78 beaches selected within the framework of the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR) has been used to identify temporal trends of marine litter. Based on statistical analyses of this dataset a two-part multi-criteria evaluation system for beach litter pollution of the North-East Atlantic and the North Sea is proposed. Canonical correlation analyses, linear regression analyses, and non-parametric analyses of variance were used to identify different temporal trends. A classification of beaches was derived from cluster analyses and served to define different states of beach quality according to abundances of 17 input variables. The evaluation system is easily applicable and relies on the above-mentioned classification and on significant temporal trends implied by significant rank correlations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Language Status and Literacy Trend in a Multilingual Society - Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Eddie C. Y.

    1974-01-01

    Using data from census reports and educational statistics, this paper analyzes the language status and literacy trends in multilingual Singapore, where the four official languages are Malay, Chinese, Tamil and English. (CK)

  4. Maximum And Minimum Temperature Trends In Mexico For The Last 31 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Centeno, R.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.; Allende Arandia, M. E.; Carrasco-Mijarez, N.; Calderon-Bustamante, O.

    2013-05-01

    Based on high-resolution (1') daily maps of the maximum and minimum temperatures in Mexico, an analysis of the last 31-year trends is performed. The maps were generated using all the available information from more than 5,000 stations of the Mexican Weather Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) for the period 1979-2009, along with data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The data processing procedure includes a quality control step, in order to eliminate erroneous daily data, and make use of a high-resolution digital elevation model (from GEBCO), the relationship between air temperature and elevation by means of the average environmental lapse rate, and interpolation algorithms (linear and inverse-distance weighting). Based on the monthly gridded maps for the mentioned period, the maximum and minimum temperature trends calculated by least-squares linear regression and their statistical significance are obtained and discussed.

  5. Statistical analysis of the determinations of the Sun's Galactocentric distance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkin, Zinovy

    2013-02-01

    Based on several tens of R0 measurements made during the past two decades, several studies have been performed to derive the best estimate of R0. Some used just simple averaging to derive a result, whereas others provided comprehensive analyses of possible errors in published results. In either case, detailed statistical analyses of data used were not performed. However, a computation of the best estimates of the Galactic rotation constants is not only an astronomical but also a metrological task. Here we perform an analysis of 53 R0 measurements (published in the past 20 years) to assess the consistency of the data. Our analysis shows that they are internally consistent. It is also shown that any trend in the R0 estimates from the last 20 years is statistically negligible, which renders the presence of a bandwagon effect doubtful. On the other hand, the formal errors in the published R0 estimates improve significantly with time.

  6. Trends in popularity of some morphological traits of purebred dogs in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Kendy T; McGreevy, Paul D; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Dhand, Navneet K

    2016-01-01

    The morphology of dogs can provide information about their predisposition to some disorders. For example, larger breeds are predisposed to hip dysplasia and many neoplastic diseases. Therefore, longitudinal trends in popularity of dog morphology can reveal potential disease pervasiveness in the future. There have been reports on the popularity of particular breeds and behavioural traits but trends in the morphological traits of preferred breeds have not been studied. This study investigated trends in the height, dog size and head shape (cephalic index) of Australian purebred dogs. One hundred eighty-one breeds derived from Australian National Kennel Council (ANKC) registration statistics from 1986 to 2013 were analysed. Weighted regression analyses were conducted to examine trends in the traits by using them as outcome variables, with year as the explanatory variable and numbers of registered dogs as weights. Linear regression investigated dog height and cephalic index (skull width/skull length), and multinomial logistic regression studied dog size. The total number of ANKC registration had decreased gradually from 95,792 in 1986 to 66,902 in 2013. Both weighted minimal height (p = 0.014) and weighted maximal height (p popular over time. Mean cephalic index has increased, which indicates that Australians have gradually favoured breeds with shorter and wider heads (brachycephalic). These significant trends indicate that the dog morphological traits reported here may potentially influence how people select companion dogs in Australia and provide valuable predictive information on the pervasiveness of diseases in dogs.

  7. [Suicide in Luxembourg: a statistical study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    A review of the situation concerning suicide in Luxembourg is presented. The existing laws are first described, and some methodological questions are summarized. A statistical analysis of suicide in the country is then presented. Data are included on trends over time, 1881-1982; and on variations in suicide by sex, age, marital status, religion, nationality, and occupation and standard of living. A bibliography is also provided.

  8. Antibiotic resistance and trend of urinary pathogens in general outpatients from a major urban city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos R. Kiffer

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We assessed the antimicrobial resistance patterns of pathogens responsible for urinary tract infections (UTI in outpatients in São Paulo, Brazil, as well as the Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance trend. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outpatients urine cultures were collected from January 2000 to December 2003. Statistical analysis considered positive results for one bacterial species with colony count > 100,000 CFU/mL. Stratification was done on age group and gender. Statistical tests used included chi-square and the chi-square test for trend to evaluate differences between susceptibility rates among age groups and ordering in the E. coli resistance rates per year, respectively. RESULTS: There were 37,261 positive results with Enterobacteriaceae isolated in 32,530 (87.3% and Gram-positive cocci in 2,570 (6.9% cultures. E. coli had the highest prevalence (71.6%. Susceptibility tests were performed in 31,716 cultures. E. coli had elevated resistance rates (> 30% to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and tetracycline. Significant differences between age groups and ordering among years were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole is precluded in the population studied due to elevated resistance rates (> 30% among most prevalent pathogens. Significant resistance rate differences among age groups and years were observed, particularly for fluoroquinolones. Fluoroquinolones should be used with caution. Nitrofurantoin should be used as empirical therapy for primary, non-complicated urinary tract infections.

  9. Infodemiological data concerning silicosis in the USA in the period 2004–2010 correlating with real-world statistical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Luigi Bragazzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article reports data concerning silicosis-related web-activities using Google Trends (GT capturing the Internet behavior in the USA for the period 2004–2010. GT-generated data were then compared with the most recent available epidemiological data of silicosis mortality obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the same study period. Statistically significant correlations with epidemiological data of silicosis (r=0.805, p-value <0.05 and other related web searches were found. The temporal trend well correlated with the epidemiological data, as well as the geospatial distribution of the web-activities with the geographic epidemiology of silicosis.

  10. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  11. Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

    2017-12-01

    Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

  12. Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem; Bueke, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    The accelerating use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution and the rapid destruction of forests causes a significant increase in greenhouse gases. The increasing threat of global warming and climate change has been the major, worldwide, ongoing concern especially in the last two decades. The impacts of global warming on the world economy have been assessed intensively by researchers since the 1990s. Worldwide organizations have been attempting to reduce the adverse impacts of global warming through intergovernmental and binding agreements. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one of the most foremost greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The energy sector is dominated by the direct combustion of fuels, a process leading to large emissions of CO 2 . CO 2 from energy represents about 60% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of global emissions. This percentage varies greatly by country, due to diverse national energy structures. The top-25 emitting countries accounted 82.27% of the world CO 2 emissions in 2007. In the same year China was the largest emitter and generated 20.96% of the world total. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. In this study, trend analysis approach has been employed for modelling to forecast of energy-related CO 2 emissions. To this aim first, trends in CO 2 emissions for the top-25 countries and the world total CO 2 emissions during 1971-2007 are identified. On developing the regression analyses, the regression analyses with R 2 values less than 0.94 showing insignificant influence in statistical tests have been discarded. Statistically significant trends are indicated in eleven countries namely, India, South Korea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey and the world total. The results obtained from the analyses showed that the models for those countries can be used for CO 2

  13. Work-related ill health in doctors working in Great Britain: incidence rates and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Anli Yue; Carder, Melanie; Gittins, Matthew; Agius, Raymond

    2017-11-01

    Background Doctors have a higher prevalence of mental ill health compared with other professional occupations but incidence rates are poorly studied. Aims To determine incidence rates and trends of work-related ill health (WRIH) and work-related mental ill health (WRMIH) in doctors compared with other professions in Great Britain. Method Incidence rates were calculated using an occupational physician reporting scheme from 2005-2010. Multilevel regression was use to study incidence rates from 2001 to 2014. Results Annual incidence rates for WRIH and WRIMH in doctors were 515 and 431 per 100 000 people employed, respectively. Higher incidence rates for WRIH and WRMIH were observed for ambulance staff and nurses, respectively. Doctors demonstrated an annual average incidence rates increase for WRIH and WRMIH, especially in women, whereas the other occupations demonstrated a decreasing or static trend. The difference in trends between the occupations was statistically significant. Conclusions WRIH and WRMIH incidence rate are increasing in doctors, especially in women, warranting further research. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

  14. A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin I. Cook

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

  15. Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bâki Iz H.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

  16. Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Beaulieu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI expected in 2014 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies.

  17. Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like-illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araz, Ozgur M; Bentley, Dan; Muelleman, Robert L

    2014-09-01

    Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like-illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Google Flu Trends data

  18. A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.

    2010-01-01

    Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

  19. Examining Rural-Urban Obesity Trends among Youth in the U.S.: Testing the Socioeconomic Gradient Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Reed Porter

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Adolescent obesity has increased three-fold in the U.S. during the last three decades. While this trend is well-known, relatively little is known about differences in obesity across the rural-urban continuum. This research addresses that gap by testing for such a relationship across time while accounting for variations in familial socioeconomic status.  Using 1986-2004 Monitoring the Future (MTF survey data, we estimate recent trends in rural-urban body weight, also testing for potential differences among the rural, small town, and urban high school seniors along socioeconomic gradients. Statistically significant differences disfavoring rural high school seniors in their BMI, their risk for the onset of obesity, and obesity itself over the past decade are identified, with significant interactions between demographics and parental education levels driving the largest disparities. These findings are rich and speak directly to the allocation of public health resources aimed at addressing issues associated with the adolescent obesity epidemic.

  20. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

  1. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity in 15 European countries between 1990 and 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kristina; de Gelder, Rianne; Hu, Yannan

    2017-01-01

    different European countries between 1990 and 2010. METHODS: Nationally representative survey data from 15 European countries were harmonized and used in a meta-regression of trends in prevalence and educational inequalities in obesity between 1990 and 2010. Educational inequalities were estimated by means...... of absolute rate differences and relative rate ratios in men and women aged 30-64 years. RESULTS: A statistically significant increase in the prevalence of obesity was found for all countries, except for Ireland (among men) and for France, Hungary, Italy and Poland (among women). Meta-regressions showed...

  2. Numerical and Qualitative Contrasts of Two Statistical Models for Water Quality Change in Tidal Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Two statistical approaches, weighted regression on time, discharge, and season and generalized additive models, have recently been used to evaluate water quality trends in estuaries. Both models have been used in similar contexts despite differences in statistical foundations and...

  3. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  4. Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

    2015-01-01

    Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

  5. Highway Safety: Trends in Highway Fatalities 1975-1987

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-03-01

    pattern of fatalities as the overall trend. This pattern applies to many of the general fatality statis- tics we present, and, in all cases, it serves as a...Fatalities 1975-87 Appemfx IV Vehicle-Related Statistics Figure IV.17: Vehicle Fatalities by Direction of Principal Impacto NNNumber of PddUlsils lwam 0 1975

  6. Rabies trends and surveillance capabilities in Zambia | Kabaso ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of this study was to assess the trends, distribution and positivity rate of rabies cases in Zambia. A retrospective study for the period of 10 years between 2004 and 2014, was conducted by using rabies case reports. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and geo-coded in Quantum ...

  7. Determining coding CpG islands by identifying regions significant for pattern statistics on Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Meromit; Engström, Alexander; Schönhuth, Alexander; Pachter, Lior

    2011-09-23

    Recent experimental and computational work confirms that CpGs can be unmethylated inside coding exons, thereby showing that codons may be subjected to both genomic and epigenomic constraint. It is therefore of interest to identify coding CpG islands (CCGIs) that are regions inside exons enriched for CpGs. The difficulty in identifying such islands is that coding exons exhibit sequence biases determined by codon usage and constraints that must be taken into account. We present a method for finding CCGIs that showcases a novel approach we have developed for identifying regions of interest that are significant (with respect to a Markov chain) for the counts of any pattern. Our method begins with the exact computation of tail probabilities for the number of CpGs in all regions contained in coding exons, and then applies a greedy algorithm for selecting islands from among the regions. We show that the greedy algorithm provably optimizes a biologically motivated criterion for selecting islands while controlling the false discovery rate. We applied this approach to the human genome (hg18) and annotated CpG islands in coding exons. The statistical criterion we apply to evaluating islands reduces the number of false positives in existing annotations, while our approach to defining islands reveals significant numbers of undiscovered CCGIs in coding exons. Many of these appear to be examples of functional epigenetic specialization in coding exons.

  8. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  9. Agricultural Land and Land Tax – Significant Indicators of Agriculture Business Activities in the Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krajčírová Renáta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on the consideration between the agricultural land acreage and the amount of land tax in the selected sample of companies of agricultural primary production in the Slovak Republic within the period from 2010 to 2014 based on the data from departmental database of enterprises with primary agricultural production drawn from the factsheets of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic presented by the selected statistical methods. In particular, the article presents the agricultural land and land tax from the accounting and tax perspective of the Slovak Republic and the European Union. It can be resulted that a slightly declining trend of the mean acreage of agricultural land was recorded for the evaluated group of agricultural enterprises within the reported period, while the mean land tax value per hectare of agricultural land had increasing trend. Results of the survey on significances of differences in the values of the dependent variables at the level of combinations of factors of year and enterprise indicate that the acreage of agricultural land and the volume of the land tax are statistically dependant at the level of year, however there are not dependent at the level of combination of factors of year and enterprise within the surveyed period.

  10. Noctilucent clouds observed from the UK and Denmark – trends and variations over 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kirkwood

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The combined UK/Denmark record of noctilucent cloud (NLC observations over the period 1964–2006 is analysed. This data set is based on visual observations by professional and voluntary observers, with around 40 observers each year contributing reports. Evidence is found for a significantly longer NLC season, a greater frequency of bright NLC, and a decreased sensitivity to 5-day planetary waves, from 1973–1982, compared to the rest of the time interval. This coincides with a period when the length of the summer season in the stratosphere was also longer (defined by zonal winds at 60° N, 30 hPa. At NLC heights, lower mean temperatures, and/or higher water vapour and/or smaller planetary wave amplitudes could explain these results. The time series of number of NLC nights each year shows a quasi-decadal variation with good anti-correlation with the 10.7 cm solar flux, with a lag of 13–17 months. Using multi-parameter linear fitting, it is found that the solar-cycle and the length of summer in the stratosphere together can explain ~40% of the year-to-year variation in NLC numbers. However, no statistically confidant long-term trend in moderate or bright NLC is found. For NLC displays of moderate or greater intensity, the multi-parameter fit gives a trend of ~0.08 nights (0.35% per year with a statistical probability of 28% that it is zero, or as high as 0.16 nights (0.7% per year. There is a significant increasing trend in the number of reports of faint or very faint NLC which is inconsistent with other observations and may be due changes in observing practices.

  11. Trends in motor neuron disease: association with latitude and air lead levels in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santurtún, Ana; Villar, Alejandro; Delgado-Alvarado, Manuel; Riancho, Javier

    2016-08-01

    Motor neuron diseases (MND) are a group of disorders characterized by motor neuron degeneration. Among them, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is by far the most common in adulthood. This paper assesses the trend and geographical pattern in MND incidence in Spain and the possible air lead levels effect on this pathology. To confirm this concept, we performed a retrospective analysis of the deaths due to MND in Spain during 2000 and 2013, determined the geographical differences, and explored the relationship between MND and the air levels of lead. Overall, between 2000 and 2013, 11,355 people died in Spain because of MND. Disease mortality significantly increased in recent years (2007-2013) when compared with the first time of the period. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient also showed a statistically significant positive trend (CC = 0.824, p = 0.0002). Among people over 65 years, mortality rates were higher in Northern provinces. Moreover, we found a significant association of MND mortality with higher air lead levels (CC = 0.457, p = 0.01). Our study confirms that MND mortality is increasing in Spain, with a significant latitude gradient, which suggests an important role of environmental exposures. This ecological study suggests that air lead levels may be implicated in ALS pathogenesis.

  12. Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

  13. Trends in picture communication

    OpenAIRE

    Speidel, Joachim

    1993-01-01

    In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

  14. Sex Differences in Diabetes Mellitus Mortality Trends in Brazil, 1980-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhão, Thainá Alves; Brito, Alexandre Dos Santos; Pinheiro, Rejane Sobrino; Cabral, Cristiane da Silva; Camargo, Thais Medina Coeli Rochel de; Coeli, Claudia Medina

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the hypothesis that the change from the female predominance of diabetes mellitus to a standard of equality or even male preponderance can already be observed in Brazilian mortality statistics. Data on deaths for which diabetes mellitus was listed as the underlying cause were obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System for the years 1980 to 2012. The mortality data were also analyzed according to the multiple causes of death approach from 2001 to 2012. The population data came from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The mortality rates were standardized to the world population. We used a log-linear joinpoint regression to evaluate trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). From 1980 to 2012, we found a marked increment in the diabetes ASMR among Brazilian men and a less sharp increase in the rate among women, with the latter period (2003-2012) showing a slight decrease among women, though it was not statistically significant. The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus in Brazil has changed from a pattern of higher mortality among women compared to men to equality or even male predominance.

  15. Sex Differences in Diabetes Mellitus Mortality Trends in Brazil, 1980-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thainá Alves Malhão

    Full Text Available To investigate the hypothesis that the change from the female predominance of diabetes mellitus to a standard of equality or even male preponderance can already be observed in Brazilian mortality statistics.Data on deaths for which diabetes mellitus was listed as the underlying cause were obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System for the years 1980 to 2012. The mortality data were also analyzed according to the multiple causes of death approach from 2001 to 2012. The population data came from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The mortality rates were standardized to the world population. We used a log-linear joinpoint regression to evaluate trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR.From 1980 to 2012, we found a marked increment in the diabetes ASMR among Brazilian men and a less sharp increase in the rate among women, with the latter period (2003-2012 showing a slight decrease among women, though it was not statistically significant.The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus in Brazil has changed from a pattern of higher mortality among women compared to men to equality or even male predominance.

  16. Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.

    2015-12-01

    Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.

  17. Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Prasad

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU since 1979–2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year, and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2–3 times, positive and significant only over a period of six months (December to May. The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033

  18. Variability of the total ozone trend over Europe for the period 1950─2004 derived from reconstructed data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Borkowski

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The total ozone data over Europe are available for only few ground-based stations in the pre-satellite era disallowing examination of the spatial trend variability over the whole continent. A need of having gridded ozone data for a trend analysis and input to radiative transfer models stimulated a reconstruction of the daily ozone values since January 1950. Description of the reconstruction model and its validation were a subject of our previous paper. The data base used was built within the objectives of the COST action 726 "Long-term changes and climatology of UV radiation over Europe". Here we focus on trend analyses. The long-term variability of total ozone is discussed using results of a flexible trend model applied to the reconstructed total ozone data for the period 1950–2004. The trend pattern, which comprises both anthropogenic and "natural" component, is not a priori assumed but it comes from a smooth curve fit to the zonal monthly means and monthly grid values. The ozone long-term changes are calculated separately for cold (October–next year April and warm (May–September seasons. The confidence intervals for the estimated ozone changes are derived by the block bootstrapping. The statistically significant negative trends are found almost over the whole Europe only in the period 1985–1994. Negative trends up to −3% per decade appeared over small areas in earlier periods when the anthropogenic forcing on the ozone layer was weak . The statistically positive trends are found only during warm seasons 1995–2004 over Svalbard archipelago. The reduction of ozone level in 2004 relative to that before the satellite era is not dramatic, i.e., up to ~−5% and ~−3.5% in the cold and warm subperiod, respectively. Present ozone level is still depleted over many popular resorts in southern Europe and northern Africa. For high latitude regions the trend overturning could be inferred in last decade (1995–2004 as the ozone depleted

  19. Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

    2018-05-01

    This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

  20. An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country’s geographic regions. Methods The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Results The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. Conclusions At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining

  1. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  2. Statistical Estimators Using Jointly Administrative and Survey Data to Produce French Structural Business Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brion Philippe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Using as much administrative data as possible is a general trend among most national statistical institutes. Different kinds of administrative sources, from tax authorities or other administrative bodies, are very helpful material in the production of business statistics. However, these sources often have to be completed by information collected through statistical surveys. This article describes the way Insee has implemented such a strategy in order to produce French structural business statistics. The originality of the French procedure is that administrative and survey variables are used jointly for the same enterprises, unlike the majority of multisource systems, in which the two kinds of sources generally complement each other for different categories of units. The idea is to use, as much as possible, the richness of the administrative sources combined with the timeliness of a survey, even if the latter is conducted only on a sample of enterprises. One main issue is the classification of enterprises within the NACE nomenclature, which is a cornerstone variable in producing the breakdown of the results by industry. At a given date, two values of the corresponding code may coexist: the value of the register, not necessarily up to date, and the value resulting from the data collected via the survey, but only from a sample of enterprises. Using all this information together requires the implementation of specific statistical estimators combining some properties of the difference estimators with calibration techniques. This article presents these estimators, as well as their statistical properties, and compares them with those of other methods.

  3. The trend of the total stock of the private car-petrol in Spain: Stochastic modelling using a new gamma diffusion process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez, R.; Gutierrez-Sanchez, R.; Nafidi, A.

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of this study is to model the trend of the evolution of the total stock of private petrol-driven cars. In Spain, as in other EU countries, this trend between 2000 and 2005 differed significantly from that observed from 1986 to 1999. Moreover, it varies greatly from that corresponding to the stock of diesel-driven cars, which consistently presents an exponential Gompertz-type increase. Spain constitutes a typical example of a failure to observe the maximum CO 2 emission levels assigned to it by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (1992); a significant percentage of these excess emissions is accounted for by the land transport sector, in general, and by the private cars subsector, in particular. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a new non homogeneous stochastic gamma-type diffusion process which it is a stochastic version of a Gamma function type deterministic growth model considered in Skiadas . We describe its main probabilistic characteristics and establish a statistical methodology by which it can be fitted to real data and obtain medium-term forecasts that, in statistical terms, are quite accurate

  4. Charting the trends in nuclear techniques for analysis of inorganic environmental pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, T.

    1986-01-01

    Publications in Analytical Abstracts in the period 1975-1984 and papers presented at the Modern Trends in Activation Analysis international conferences series in the period 1961-1986 have been used as an empirical basis for assessing general trends in research and publication activity. Some ebbs and flows in the speciality of instrumental techniques for analysis of environmental trace pollutants are revealed by a statistical analysis of the publications. (author)

  5. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  6. Long-term trends in child and youth injury mortality in Taiwan, 1989-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Lin Lu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Injuries are the leading causes of death and contribute greatly to morbidity in children. Our study examined injuries′ age and gender-specific variations over time among children 0-19, from 1989 to 2007. Materials and Methods: Numbers of deaths caused by injury are drawn from Taiwan′s official Vital Statistics System. Mortality was age-adjusted to the US 2000 standard population. Temporal trends were analyzed by linear regression. Results: Both genders′ annual mortality rates and proportional mortality ratios of unintentional injuries declined significantly during 1989-2007. Conversely, an increasing trend of intentional deaths occurred. In general, during 1992-2007, increasing the rates of suicide deaths in ages 10-19 and of homicide deaths in ages 0-9 occurred. Boys had more suicide deaths than did girls. Conclusions: Unlike unintentional injuries, intentional injuries increased over the 1989-2007 period. Deaths in the subgroups of ages 0-19 and categorized by genders were caused by varying injuries.

  7. The rise of digital direct-to-consumer advertising?: Comparison of direct-to-consumer advertising expenditure trends from publicly available data sources and global policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Tim K; Cuomo, Raphael E; Liang, Bryan A

    2015-06-19

    Pharmaceutical marketing is undergoing a major shift in the United States, in part due to new transparency regulations under the healthcare reform act. Changes in pharmaceutical marketing practices include a possible shift from more traditional forms of direct-to-consumer advertising towards emerging use of Internet-based DTCA ("eDTCA") given the growing importance of digital health or "eHealth." Though legally allowed only in the U.S. and New Zealand, eDTCA poses novel regulatory challenges, as it can cross geopolitical boundaries and impact health systems and populations outside of these countries. We wished to assess whether changes in DTCA and eDTCA expenditure trends was occurring using publicly available pharmaceutical marketing data. DTCA data was analyzed to compare trends in aggregate marketing expenditures and to assess if there were statistically significant differences in trends and magnitudes for data sources and DTCA sub-categories (including eDTCA). This was accomplished using regression lines of DTCA trend data and conducting pairwise comparisons of regression coefficients using t-tests. Means testing was utilized for comparing magnitude of DTCA expenditure. Data from multiple data sources indicate that aggregate DTCA expenditures have slightly declined during the period from 2005-2009 and are consistent with results from other studies. For DTCA sub-categories, television remained the most utilized form of DTCA, though experienced trends of declining expenditures (-13.2 %) similar to other traditional media platforms such as radio (-30.7 %) and outdoor ads (-12.1 %). The only DTCA sub-category that experienced substantial increased expenditures was eDTCA (+109.0 %) and it was the only medium that had statistically significant differences in its marketing expenditure trends compared to other DTCA sub-categories. Our study indicates that traditional DTCA marketing may be on the decline. Conversely, the only DTCA sub-category that experienced

  8. Separating yolk from white: A filter based on economic properties of trend and cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Peng

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new filter technique to separate trend and cycle based on stylised economic properties of trend and cycle, rather than relying on ad hoc statistical proper-ties such as frequency. Given the theoretical separation between economic growth and business cycle literature, it is necessary to make the measures of trend and cycle match what the respective theories intend to explain. The proposed filter is applied to the long macroeconomic data collected by the Bank of England (1...

  9. Trends of mortality from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, H; Alvarez-Alvarez, I; Guillen-Grima, F; Al-Rahamneh, M J; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I

    2017-06-01

    In many countries, Alzheimer's disease (AD) has gradually become a common disease in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to analyse trends of mortality caused by AD in the 28 member countries in the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. We extracted data for AD deaths for the period 1994-2013 in the EU from the Eurostat and World Health Organization database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 were computed. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses by gender and by European regions were conducted. Mortality from AD has risen in the EU throughout the study period. Most of the countries showed upward trends, with the sharpest increases in Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania. We recorded statistically significant increases of 4.7% and 6.0% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. According to the regional analysis, northern and eastern countries showed the steepest increases, whereas in the latter years mortality has declined in western countries. Our findings provide evidence that AD mortality has increased in the EU, especially in eastern and northern European countries and in the female population. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention policies. © 2017 EAN.

  10. Trends and Variability of the Outdoor Skating Season in Canada during 1951-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damyanov, Nikolay Nikolaev

    Climate change affects a range of human activities, including one of Canada's prime sources of entertainment: ice skating. Whether done recreationally or as hockey, its outdoor component is heavily dependent on weather and climate. Based on information obtained from public works officials from various Canadian cities, I have established a meteorological criterion for the initiation of an outdoor skating season (OSS) as the last day in a sequence of the first three consecutive fall/winter days with a maximum temperature below -5 °C. In addition, I derive a proxy of the OSS length, defined as the total number of days with a maximum temperature below -5 °C after the OSS start date and before the start of March. Using these filters, I have extracted the start dates and the lengths of the OSS for each year during the fifty-five year period 1951-2005 from a comprehensive daily temperature dataset (Vincent et al., 2002). For each station, I created time series of both the OSS start dates and OSS lengths, and calculated the magnitude, sign and statistical significance of the slopes of the best-fit lines to each time series. In order to establish a relationship of the OSS with large-scale climate patterns, I grouped stations into six climatic regions. Depending on location, I then tested each region for correlation with the Pacific North-American teleconnection pattern (PNA) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), using a composite analysis method. Lastly, I removed the signal due to these climate fluctuations from the OSS start date and length trends in order to determine how much of the variability was caused by these interannual climate oscillations. The results of the study indicate that most stations in British Columbia and southwest Alberta, as well as these in the southern Ontario/Quebc region have witnessed a progressively later onset of the OSS over time. The Prairies, northwest Canada, and some Maritime locales show the opposite trend, although the magnitudes

  11. Test the Overall Significance of p-values by Using Joint Tail Probability of Ordered p-values as Test Statistic

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst

    2008-01-01

    Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values and decide the test result. This is, in some cases, viewed as a flaw. In order to overcome this flaw and improve the power of the test, the joint tail probability of a set p-values is proposed as a ...

  12. An Improved Rank Correlation Effect Size Statistic for Single-Case Designs: Baseline Corrected Tau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarlow, Kevin R

    2017-07-01

    Measuring treatment effects when an individual's pretreatment performance is improving poses a challenge for single-case experimental designs. It may be difficult to determine whether improvement is due to the treatment or due to the preexisting baseline trend. Tau- U is a popular single-case effect size statistic that purports to control for baseline trend. However, despite its strengths, Tau- U has substantial limitations: Its values are inflated and not bound between -1 and +1, it cannot be visually graphed, and its relatively weak method of trend control leads to unacceptable levels of Type I error wherein ineffective treatments appear effective. An improved effect size statistic based on rank correlation and robust regression, Baseline Corrected Tau, is proposed and field-tested with both published and simulated single-case time series. A web-based calculator for Baseline Corrected Tau is also introduced for use by single-case investigators.

  13. Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

  14. TRENDS IN ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirjol Florentina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an industry of the future, having the potential to provide significant revenues, and an industry of 'beauty', because it will protect, preserve and contribute to arranging the environment affected by other human activities. This is why it is very important to know the evolution of this underdeveloped field in our country. This paper is intended as a study on current trends in Romanian tourism without any claim of being an exhaustive research on the industry, describing the main indices of tourist traffic and their influence on Romanian tourism. Nowadays, we witness three main trends in Romanian tourism: sustainability, ecotourism and the increasing presence of cultural tourism. Ecotourism, as a form of tourism, has emerged from people's need to withdraw in nature, to visit and learn about the natural areas which have or have not a national or international protection status. Cultural tourism appears as a type of tourism clearly differentiated from other forms or types of tourism, particularly through motivation. It can be defined as a form of tourist mobility whose primary goal is broadening the horizon of knowledge by uncovering its architectural and artistic heritage and the areas in which it originates. Sustainability for tourism, as for other industries, has three independent aspects: economic, socio-cultural and environmental. Sustainability implies permanence, which means that sustainable tourism requires the optimal use of resources, minimizing the negative economic, socio-cultural and ecological impact, maximizing the benefits upon local communities, national economies and conservation of nature. Regarding statistical data, in what quantity is concerned, there is an increase in Romanian tourism, but in what quality is concerned there is a setback for tourism in the last years. This aspect should make public authorities take concern in improving the infrastructure and the quality of the touristical activity and in diversifying

  15. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    with global datasets can provide some indication on biases. Compared to the global BEST dataset for the same countries, the national datasets of Austria, Italy and Switzerland have a 0.36°C per century stronger trend since 1901. For the trend since 1960 we can also take Australia, France and Slovenia into account and find a trend bias of 0.40°C per century. Relative to CRUCY the trend biases are smaller and only statistically significant for the period since 1980. The most direct way to study biases in the temperature records is by making parallel measurements with historical measurement set-ups. Several recent parallel data studies for the transition to Stevenson screens suggest larger biases: Austria 0.2°C, Spain 0.5 & 0.6°C. As well as older tropical ones: India 0.42°C and Sri Lanka 0.37°C. The smaller values from the Parker (1994) review mainly stem from parallel measurements from North-West Europe, which may have less problems with exposure. Furthermore, the influence of many historical transitions, especially the ones that could cause an artificial smaller trend, have not been studied in detail yet. We urgently need to study improvements of exposure (especially in the (sub-)tropics), increases in watering and irrigation, mechanical ventilation, better paints, relocations to airports, and relocations to suburbs of stations that started in the cities and from village centers to pasture, for example. Our current understanding surprisingly suggests that the more recent period may have the largest biases, but it could also be that even the best datasets are unable to improve earlier data sufficiently. If the temperature trend were actually larger it would reduce discrepancies between studies for a number of problems in climatology. For example, the estimates of transient climate sensitivity using instrumental data are lower as the one using climate models, volcanic eruptions or paleo data. Furthermore, several changes observed in the climate system are larger

  16. Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2009-09-01

    directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.

  17. Trends in Mortality Rate from Cardiovascular Disease in Brazil, 1980-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio de Padua Mansur

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Studies have questioned the downward trend in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD in Brazil in recent years. Objective: to analyze recent trends in mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD and stroke in the Brazilian population. Methods: Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Risk of death was adjusted by the direct method, using as reference the world population of 2000. We analyzed trends in mortality from CVD, IHD and stroke in women and men in the periods of 1980-2006 and 2007-2012. Results: there was a decrease in CVD mortality and stroke in women and men for both periods (p < 0.001. Annual mortality variations for periods 1980-2006 and 2007-2012 were, respectively: CVD (total: -1.5% and -0.8%; CVD men: -1.4% and -0.6%; CVD women: -1.7% and -1.0%; DIC (men: -1.1% and 0.1%; stroke (men: -1.7% and -1.4%; DIC (women: -1.5% and 0.4%; stroke (women: -2.0% and -1.9%. From 1980 to 2006, there was a decrease in IHD mortality in men and women (p < 0.001, but from 2007 to 2012, changes in IHD mortality were not significant in men [y = 151 + 0.04 (R2 = 0.02; p = 0.779] and women [y = 88-0.54 (R2 = 0.24; p = 0.320. Conclusion: Trend in mortality from IHD stopped falling in Brazil from 2007 to 2012.

  18. Trends in laboratory test volumes for Medicare Part B reimbursements, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahangian, Shahram; Alspach, Todd D; Astles, J Rex; Yesupriya, Ajay; Dettwyler, William K

    2014-02-01

    Changes in reimbursements for clinical laboratory testing may help us assess the effect of various variables, such as testing recommendations, market forces, changes in testing technology, and changes in clinical or laboratory practices, and provide information that can influence health care and public health policy decisions. To date, however, there has been no report, to our knowledge, of longitudinal trends in national laboratory test use. To evaluate Medicare Part B-reimbursed volumes of selected laboratory tests per 10,000 enrollees from 2000 through 2010. Laboratory test reimbursement volumes per 10,000 enrollees in Medicare Part B were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (Baltimore, Maryland). The ratio of the most recent (2010) reimbursed test volume per 10,000 Medicare enrollees, divided by the oldest data (usually 2000) during this decade, called the volume ratio, was used to measure trends in test reimbursement. Laboratory tests with a reimbursement claim frequency of at least 10 per 10,000 Medicare enrollees in 2010 were selected, provided there was more than a 50% change in test reimbursement volume during the 2000-2010 decade. We combined the reimbursed test volumes for the few tests that were listed under more than one code in the Current Procedural Terminology (American Medical Association, Chicago, Illinois). A 2-sided Poisson regression, adjusted for potential overdispersion, was used to determine P values for the trend; trends were considered significant at P reimbursement volumes were electrolytes, digoxin, carbamazepine, phenytoin, and lithium, with volume ratios ranging from 0.27 to 0.64 (P reimbursement volumes were meprobamate, opiates, methadone, phencyclidine, amphetamines, cocaine, and vitamin D, with volume ratios ranging from 83 to 1510 (P reimbursement volumes increased for most of the selected tests, other tests exhibited statistically significant downward trends in annual reimbursement volumes. The observed

  19. 2nd Conference of the International Society for Nonparametric Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Manteiga, Wenceslao; Romo, Juan

    2016-01-01

    This volume collects selected, peer-reviewed contributions from the 2nd Conference of the International Society for Nonparametric Statistics (ISNPS), held in Cádiz (Spain) between June 11–16 2014, and sponsored by the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, the Journal of Nonparametric Statistics and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. The 15 articles are a representative sample of the 336 contributed papers presented at the conference. They cover topics such as high-dimensional data modelling, inference for stochastic processes and for dependent data, nonparametric and goodness-of-fit testing, nonparametric curve estimation, object-oriented data analysis, and semiparametric inference. The aim of the ISNPS 2014 conference was to bring together recent advances and trends in several areas of nonparametric statistics in order to facilitate the exchange of research ideas, promote collaboration among researchers...

  20. Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokol, Peter

    2017-07-01

    Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis. The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies. Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

  1. Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth; Loane, Maria; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bergman, Jorieke E. H.; Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth S.; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsoyr, Kari; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Robert; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J.; O'Mahony, Mary; Pierini, Anna; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Kurinczuk, Jennifer; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2018-01-01

    Background Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Methods This study analysed the prevalence of 61 congenital anomaly subgroups (excluding chromosomal) in 25 population-based EUROCAT registries (1980–2012). Live births, fetal deaths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random-effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003–2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects, single ventricle, atrioventricular septal defects and tetralogy of Fallot of 1.4% (95% CI: 0.7% to 2.0%), 4.6% (1.0% to 8.2%), 3.4% (1.3% to 5.5%) and 4.1% (2.4% to 5.7%) respectively may reflect increases in maternal obesity and diabetes (known risk factors). The increased prevalence of cystic adenomatous malformation of the lung [6.5% (3.5% to 9.4%)] and decreased prevalence of limb reduction defects [-2.8% (-4.2% to -1.5%)] are unexplained. For renal dysplasia and maternal infections, increasing trends may be explained by increased screening, and deceases in patent ductus arteriosus at term and increases in craniosynostosis, by improved follow up period after birth and improved diagnosis. For oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia/stenosis and ano-rectal atresia/stenosis recent changes in prevalence appeared incidental when compared with larger long term fluctuations. For microcephaly and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid supplementation. PMID:29621304

  2. Errors in registered birth weight and its implications for mortality statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Anand, D; Pharoah, P

    2000-01-01

    BACKGROUND—Birth weight mortality statistics are important for examining trends and monitoring the outcomes of neonatal care.
AIM—To determine the effects of errors in the registered birth weight on birth weight specific mortality.
METHODS—All twins born in England and Wales during 1993-95 comprise the denominator population. For those twins that died, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) provided copies of the death certificates. From the information on the death cer...

  3. [Characteristic and clinical significance of DNA methyltransferase 3B overexpression in endometrial carcinoma].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Y; Zhou, M; Ba, X J; Si, J W; Li, W T; Wang, Y; Li, D; Li, T

    2016-10-18

    To determine the clinicopathological significance of the DNA methyltransferase 3B (DNMT3B) overexpression in endometrial carcinomas and to evaluate its correlation with hormone receptor status. Immunohistochemistry was performed to assess the expression of DNMT3B and hormone receptors in 104 endometrial carcinomas. DNMT3B overexpression occurred frequently in endometrioid carcinoma (EC, 54.8%) more than in nonendometrioid carcinoma (NEC, 30.0%) with statistical significance (P=0.028). Furthermore, there was a trend that EC with worse clinico-pathological variables and shorter survival had a higher DNMT3B expression, and the correlation between DNMT3B and tumor grade reached statistical significance (P=0.019).A negative correlation between DNMT3B and estrogen receptor (ER) or progesterone receptor (PR) expression was found in EC. NMT3B overexpression occurred frequently in the ER or PR negative subgroups (78.9%, 86.7%) more than in the positive subgroups (47.7%, 47.8%) with statistical significance (P=0.016, P=0.006). In addition, the DNMT3B overexpression increased in tumors with both ER and PR negative expression (92.9%, P=0.002). However, no such correlation was found in NEC (P>0.05). Sequence analyses demonstrated multiple ER and PR binding sites in the promoter regions of DNMT3B gene. This study showed that the expression of DNMT3B in EC and NEC was different. DNMT3B overexpression in EC was associated with the worse clinicopathological variables and might have predictive value. The methylation status of EC and NEC maybe different. In addition, in EC, DNMT3B overexpression negatively correlated with ER or PR expression. In NEC, the correlation between DNMT3B and ER or PR status was not present.

  4. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  5. Trends in the oncological incidence and mortality rates in Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov - regions with radio ecological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagova, A.; Chobanova, N.; Bajrakova, A.

    2001-01-01

    A retrospective study is carried out to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of some malignant neoplasms in regions at relatively high radioecological risk near former uranium sites (Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov). Information sources are official medical statistics data, original records and database of the Oncological Dispensary in Sofia. A package of statistical programs SPSS, version 7.5, is used for the statistical analysis. The analysis didn't confirm the increase of incidence /mortality rate trends of radiation-related diseases in these regions in comparison with the same indices for the country within that period. (author)

  6. Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

  7. Detection of the spatiotemporal trends of mercury in Lake Erie fish communities: a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azim, M Ekram; Kumarappah, Ananthavalli; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Backus, Sean M; Arhonditsis, George

    2011-03-15

    The temporal trends of total mercury (THg) in four fish species in Lake Erie were evaluated based on 35 years of fish contaminant data. Our Bayesian statistical approach consists of three steps aiming to address different questions. First, we used the exponential and mixed-order decay models to assess the declining rates in four intensively sampled fish species, i.e., walleye (Stizostedion vitreum), yellow perch (Perca flavescens), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui), and white bass (Morone chrysops). Because the two models postulate monotonic decrease of the THg levels, we included first- and second-order random walk terms in our statistical formulations to accommodate nonmonotonic patterns in the data time series. Our analysis identified a recent increase in the THg concentrations, particularly after the mid-1990s. In the second step, we used double exponential models to quantify the relative magnitude of the THg trends depending on the type of data used (skinless-boneless fillet versus whole fish data) and the fish species examined. The observed THg concentrations were significantly higher in skinless boneless fillet than in whole fish portions, while the whole fish portions of walleye exhibited faster decline rates and slower rates of increase relative to the skinless boneless fillet data. Our analysis also shows lower decline rates and higher rates of increase in walleye relative to the other three fish species examined. The food web structural shifts induced by the invasive species (dreissenid mussels and round goby) may be associated with the recent THg trends in Lake Erie fish.

  8. Trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products near Hanford for the period 1971-1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwell, L.L.; Eberhardt, L.E.; Price, K.R.; Carlile, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    We evaluated the Hanford environmental data base for trends in radionuclide concentrations in wildlife and food products sampled from 1971 through 1988 on or near the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. Although statistical analyses showed short-term changes, no upward trends in radionuclide concentrations were detected. Many samples showed a significant decline in some radionuclides, particularly for 137 Cs. Concentrations of 65 Zn also showed a downward trend in many samples. Cessation of atmospheric testing by the United States and the USSR in 1971 contributed to the decline in radionuclide levels in some samples. Contaminants discharged to the Columbia River at Hanford were reduced after shutdown of the last once-through cooling-water reactor in 1971. A decline in concentrations of 65 Zn in oysters from Willapa Bay and 60 Co and 65 Zn in mountain whitefish from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River are attributable to reactor closure. There was also an apparent reduction in availability of radiological contamination to Hanford wildlife after decommissioning of waste-water disposal ponds and remediation of contaminated terrestrial sites

  9. Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

    2010-01-01

    The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

  10. The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, Stanislav

    2005-01-01

    Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

  11. Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Shushi; Fang Jingyun; Piao Shilong; Chen, Anping; Xu Liang; Myneni, Ranga B; Cao Chunxiang; Pinzon, Jorge E; Tucker, Compton J

    2011-01-01

    Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982–99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April–October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 yr −1 from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982–99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013 yr −1 ) is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003 yr −1 ) and September and October (SO) (0.0008 yr −1 ). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982–2010 compared with that during 1982–99 (0.0012 yr −1 ) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.—Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039 yr −1 ) to slightly decreasing ( − 0.0002 yr −1 ) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020 yr −1 ) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

  12. Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shushi; Chen, Anping; Xu, Liang; Cao, Chunxiang; Fang, Jingyun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, COmpton J.; Piao, Shilong

    2011-01-01

    Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

  13. Impact of changing trends of treatment on outcome of cerebral gliosarcoma: A tertiary care centre experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narendra Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To assess clinicopathological features and outcomes in patients of primary gliosarcoma with changing trends of treatment. Materials and Methods: Medical records were reviewed and data collected on primary gliosarcoma over a 5-year period (2009-2013 from the departmental case files. Results: A total 27 patients were included in this study. The median age of presentation was 54 years. There was a slight male preponderance, with male to female ratio of 1.25:1. The most common location of the tumor was temporal lobe (44.4%. Gross total resection was possible in 19 cases, near total excision was done in five cases, and only partial excision with decompression in three cases. Of the 27 patients, 80.8% patients received post-operative radical external beam radiotherapy of 60 Gy/30#/6 weeks. Concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide was used in 42.3% cases, depending on affordability and tolerance. Median overall survival was 9 months. On subgroup analysis, median overall survival in the radiotherapy plus temozolomide group was 10 months as compared to 9 months in the radiotherapy alone group; however, this was not statistically significant.(P = 0.244. Conclusion: Treating Gliosarcoma is a major therapeutic challenge for a clinician because of its poor prognosis, aggressive clinical behavior, rarity, and limited clinical experience. With surgery and concurrent chemoradiation, we were able to achieve a median overall survival of 9 months. Addition of temozolomide has shown a better trend in survival though it is not statistically significant.

  14. Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

    2018-03-01

    Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

  15. FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON SPREADSHEET-BASED AUTOMATIC TREND LINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIEL HOMOCIANU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the nowadays business applications working with data sets allow exports to the spreadsheet format. This fact is related to the experience of common business users with such products and to the possibility to couple what they have with something containing many models, functions and possibilities to process and represent data, by that getting something in dynamics and much more than a simple static less useful report. The purpose of Business Intelligence is to identify clusters, profiles, association rules, decision trees and many other patterns or even behaviours, but also to generate alerts for exceptions, determine trends and make predictions about the future based on historical data. In this context, the paper shows some practical results obtained after testing both the automatic creation of scatter charts and trend lines corresponding to the user’s preferences and the automatic suggesting of the most appropriate trend for the tested data mostly based on the statistical measure of how close they are to the regression function.

  16. Swiss statistics on renewable energy - Biogas - Partial statistics for 2001; Schweizerische Statistik erneuerbarer Energietraeger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engeli, H.

    2000-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy presents comprehensive statistics on biogas installations for the year 2001. Data is presented on biogas installations on farms and in industry, in wastewater treatment facilities. Also, data is given on biogenic wastes and co-fermentation. Summaries are presented in table form of biogas production per installation category and the use of the biogas for the production of heat and electrical power. Also, figures are given on the production of biofuels. Development trends in the various areas of biogas production are reviewed and an example of a fermentation installation is briefly described.

  17. Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

    2009-03-01

    The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

  18. Drift-corrected Odin-OSIRIS ozone product: algorithm and updated stratospheric ozone trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Bourassa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A small long-term drift in the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS stratospheric ozone product, manifested mostly since 2012, is quantified and attributed to a changing bias in the limb pointing knowledge of the instrument. A correction to this pointing drift using a predictable shape in the measured limb radiance profile is implemented and applied within the OSIRIS retrieval algorithm. This new data product, version 5.10, displays substantially better both long- and short-term agreement with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone throughout the stratosphere due to the pointing correction. Previously reported stratospheric ozone trends over the time period 1984–2013, which were derived by merging the altitude–number density ozone profile measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II satellite instrument (1984–2005 and from OSIRIS (2002–2013, are recalculated using the new OSIRIS version 5.10 product and extended to 2017. These results still show statistically significant positive trends throughout the upper stratosphere since 1997, but at weaker levels that are more closely in line with estimates from other data records.

  19. Trends of fruit and vegetable availability in neighbourhoods in Albany, NY, USA, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosler, Akiko S; Kammer, Jamie R

    2015-02-01

    To investigate a 9-year trend of fresh fruit and vegetable availability and factors associated with the net availability change in two contrasting neighbourhoods. Longitudinal design. Data were collected in 2003, 2009 and 2012 through in-store observations. Fresh fruit and vegetable availability was presented by weight-adjusted counts of stores having designated varieties per 10 000 population. A low-income minority neighbourhood and an adjacent middle-income racially mixed neighbourhood in Albany, NY, USA. These neighbourhoods became sites of fresh produce interventions after baseline data were collected. A total of 111, 128 and 146 eligible food stores in respective years. Fresh fruit availability (two or more varieties) increased in both neighbourhoods. Inventory expansion of existing stores and the convenience store intervention contributed to the significant increase (P for trend=0·04) of fresh fruit availability in the minority neighbourhood. Although not statistically significant (P>0·05), the availability of two or more dark-coloured fresh vegetables also increased in the mixed neighbourhood, but declined slightly in the minority neighbourhood. The secular (non-intervention) fresh vegetable availability rate ratio by neighbourhood reached 3·0 in 2012 (Pconvenience store intervention to address the fresh vegetable disparity.

  20. Merged SAGE II, Ozone_cci and OMPS ozone profile dataset and evaluation of ozone trends in the stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. F. Sofieva

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a merged dataset of ozone profiles from several satellite instruments: SAGE II on ERBS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY and MIPAS on Envisat, OSIRIS on Odin, ACE-FTS on SCISAT, and OMPS on Suomi-NPP. The merged dataset is created in the framework of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci with the aim of analyzing stratospheric ozone trends. For the merged dataset, we used the latest versions of the original ozone datasets. The datasets from the individual instruments have been extensively validated and intercompared; only those datasets which are in good agreement, and do not exhibit significant drifts with respect to collocated ground-based observations and with respect to each other, are used for merging. The long-term SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset is created by computation and merging of deseasonalized anomalies from individual instruments. The merged SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset consists of deseasonalized anomalies of ozone in 10° latitude bands from 90° S to 90° N and from 10 to 50 km in steps of 1 km covering the period from October 1984 to July 2016. This newly created dataset is used for evaluating ozone trends in the stratosphere through multiple linear regression. Negative ozone trends in the upper stratosphere are observed before 1997 and positive trends are found after 1997. The upper stratospheric trends are statistically significant at midlatitudes and indicate ozone recovery, as expected from the decrease of stratospheric halogens that started in the middle of the 1990s and stratospheric cooling.

  1. Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raggad, Bechir

    2018-05-01

    In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

  2. After statistics reform : Should we still teach significance testing?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Hak (Tony)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractIn the longer term null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) will disappear because p- values are not informative and not replicable. Should we continue to teach in the future the procedures of then abolished routines (i.e., NHST)? Three arguments are discussed for not teaching NHST in

  3. Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, Richard O. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    1987-01-01

    The application of statistics to environmental pollution monitoring studies requires a knowledge of statistical analysis methods particularly well suited to pollution data. This book fills that need by providing sampling plans, statistical tests, parameter estimation procedure techniques, and references to pertinent publications. Most of the statistical techniques are relatively simple, and examples, exercises, and case studies are provided to illustrate procedures. The book is logically divided into three parts. Chapters 1, 2, and 3 are introductory chapters. Chapters 4 through 10 discuss field sampling designs and Chapters 11 through 18 deal with a broad range of statistical analysis procedures. Some statistical techniques given here are not commonly seen in statistics book. For example, see methods for handling correlated data (Sections 4.5 and 11.12), for detecting hot spots (Chapter 10), and for estimating a confidence interval for the mean of a lognormal distribution (Section 13.2). Also, Appendix B lists a computer code that estimates and tests for trends over time at one or more monitoring stations using nonparametric methods (Chapters 16 and 17). Unfortunately, some important topics could not be included because of their complexity and the need to limit the length of the book. For example, only brief mention could be made of time series analysis using Box-Jenkins methods and of kriging techniques for estimating spatial and spatial-time patterns of pollution, although multiple references on these topics are provided. Also, no discussion of methods for assessing risks from environmental pollution could be included.

  4. The new Space Shuttle Transportation System (STS) - Problem, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, J. L.; Rodney, G. A.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the NASA Space Shuttle Trend Analysis program. The four main areas of the program - problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending - are defined, along with motivation for these areas, the statistical methods used, and illustrative Space Shuttle applications. Also described is the NASA Safety, Reliability, Maintainability and Quality Assurance (SRM&QA) Management Information Center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues. Finally, the computer data bases used to support the program and future program enhancements are discussed.

  5. Use of hierarchical models to analyze European trends in congenital anomaly prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavadino, Alana; Prieto-Merino, David; Addor, Marie-Claude

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Despite known associations between different anomalies, current surveillance methods examine trends within each subgroup separately. We aimed to evaluate whether hierarchical statistical methods that c...

  6. Trends in marine fish catches at Pattani Fishery Port (1999-2003)

    OpenAIRE

    Wanchamai Karntanut; Premwadee Komontree; Phattrawan Tongkumchum

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of the various types of marine fish landed at Pattani Fishery Port, allowing for trend and seasonality, using official data during 1999-2003. The data comprise daily and monthly totals by weight for eight types of fish (mackerel, other food fish, squid, scads, trash fish, shrimp, lobster and crab). The statistical methods are one-way analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and time series forecasting using tre...

  7. Analysis of cerebrovascular mortality trends in Spain from 1980 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Escudero-Martínez, I; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F; Jiménez, M D; Montaner, J

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have declined significantly in many countries. This study analyses changes in CVD mortality rates in Spain (1980-2011) to determine if previously observed trends remain. Data on CVD mortality rates and the population data needed for the analysis were provided by Spain's National Statistics Institute. We calculated age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised overall mortality, and age-truncated mortality (35-64 years) using the direct method and standard European population structure. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the percentage of annual change in rates and identify significant changes in trends. CVD mortality rate decreased considerably and continuously over the last 32 years in all age groups and in both sexes in Spain. For both sexes, joinpoint analysis identifies a final period with more marked decline: 2005-2011 in women (-6.3%) and 2007-2011 in men (-7.2%). CVD mortality rates displayed a marked and continuous decline in Spain between 1980 and 2011. Due to the ageing of the population, doctors expect an increase in CVD prevalence and therefore its magnitude in terms of disability and healthcare costs, which poses a challenge to our health system. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amanda S.

    2013-01-01

    Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…

  9. Reducing statistics anxiety and enhancing statistics learning achievement: effectiveness of a one-minute strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiou, Chei-Chang; Wang, Yu-Min; Lee, Li-Tze

    2014-08-01

    Statistical knowledge is widely used in academia; however, statistics teachers struggle with the issue of how to reduce students' statistics anxiety and enhance students' statistics learning. This study assesses the effectiveness of a "one-minute paper strategy" in reducing students' statistics-related anxiety and in improving students' statistics-related achievement. Participants were 77 undergraduates from two classes enrolled in applied statistics courses. An experiment was implemented according to a pretest/posttest comparison group design. The quasi-experimental design showed that the one-minute paper strategy significantly reduced students' statistics anxiety and improved students' statistics learning achievement. The strategy was a better instructional tool than the textbook exercise for reducing students' statistics anxiety and improving students' statistics achievement.

  10. Evaluation of significantly modified water bodies in Vojvodina by using multivariate statistical techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vujović Svetlana R.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of water quality data sets and identification of pollution sources/factors with a view to get better information about the water quality and design of monitoring network for effective management of water resources. Multivariate statistical techniques, such as factor analysis (FA/principal component analysis (PCA and cluster analysis (CA, were applied for the evaluation of variations and for the interpretation of a water quality data set of the natural water bodies obtained during 2010 year of monitoring of 13 parameters at 33 different sites. FA/PCA attempts to explain the correlations between the observations in terms of the underlying factors, which are not directly observable. Factor analysis is applied to physico-chemical parameters of natural water bodies with the aim classification and data summation as well as segmentation of heterogeneous data sets into smaller homogeneous subsets. Factor loadings were categorized as strong and moderate corresponding to the absolute loading values of >0.75, 0.75-0.50, respectively. Four principal factors were obtained with Eigenvalues >1 summing more than 78 % of the total variance in the water data sets, which is adequate to give good prior information regarding data structure. Each factor that is significantly related to specific variables represents a different dimension of water quality. The first factor F1 accounting for 28 % of the total variance and represents the hydrochemical dimension of water quality. The second factor F2 accounting for 18% of the total variance and may be taken factor of water eutrophication. The third factor F3 accounting 17 % of the total variance and represents the influence of point sources of pollution on water quality. The fourth factor F4 accounting 13 % of the total variance and may be taken as an ecological dimension of water quality. Cluster analysis (CA is an

  11. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  12. Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

  13. Modern Trends in the Formation of Household Incomes in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey N. Zaika

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to modern trends in the formation of household incomes in Ukraine, finding the relation between different types of income on the basis of statistical and financial classification. Identifying modern trends in the generation of household income is important for the disclosure of labour market formation. Formation of a diversified system of household incomes, harmoniously combining both primary and secondary incomes, incomes from the payment of wage labour, entrepreneurship and self-employment, as well as other types of income, can protect people during crises in the financial and real sectors of the economy.

  14. Trend of suspended sediment load in the Velika Morava River in the period 1967-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafić Sanja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of discharge (Q, suspended sediment concentration (SSC and sediment load (Qs of the Velika Morva River. The catchment area on farthest hydrological profile Ljubičevski most on Velika Morava River is approximately 35,496 km2. In this profile were carried out daily measurements of flow and concetration of silt in the period from 1967 to 2007. Average perennial transport of suspended sediment is 2.57ˣ106 t (72.4 t/km2/yr and ranged from 0.17ˣ106 t (4.8 t/km2/yr to 10.02ˣ106 t (282.2 t/km2/yr. Trends determined for Q, SSC and Qs are statistically obtained using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Results of Mann-Kendall test show that Q has a slight declining trend of annual values which do not show statistical significance. Decline in trendline SSC and Qs is a significant at the level of 0.01. Calculating the standardized regression coefficients, it was found that the relative impact of SSC on sediment load is 3.1 time higher than the impact of discharge. From 1967 to 2007 the average decrease in sediment load at the mouth of the Velika Morava into the Danube was 3.1 t/km2/yr. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: The Research on Climate Change Influences on Environment: Influence Monitoring, Adaptation and Mitigation, subproject No. 9: Torrential Floods Frequency, Soil and Water Degradation as the Consequence of Global Changes

  15. The relationship between problematic internet use, violence trend and some demographic variables among university students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aysun Babacan Gumus

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate relations between problematic internet use, violence trend and some demographic variables in university students. Methods: The study was conducted with students studying at a state university. The sample consisted of 375 university students as 201 female and 174 male. The data were collected using Demographic Information Form, Internet Addiction Scale (IAS and Violence Proneness Scale (VPS. In the analysis of the data; descriptive statistics student t test, ANOVA, Post hoc Tukey HSD test, pearson correlation analysis and stepwise hierarchical regression analysis were used. Results: The mean age of the students was 21.04+/-1.65 years (age range 18-28 years. It was found that 82.7% of the students in the study group use internet with the purpose of information, and 78.4% of the students use internet for social and entertainment purposes. According to IAS points; 3.7% of the students are problematic internet use, whereas 30.4% show borderline indications in terms of problematic internet use. According to VPS points; 40% of students have high trend of violence and 2.7% of the students have very high trend of violence. A positive relationship was determined between IAS and VPS mean scores (r=0.346, p<0.01. Duration of internet use, violence trend, internet use for social and entertainment purposes and gender are the variables that predict problematic internet use level. Problematic internet use, friend relationships, duration of mother education, gender and duration of internet use are significant predictors of violence trend. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that a significant portion of university students are at risk of problematic internet use and high violence trend. It is believed that the findings obtained in this research will be beneficial in terms of taking necessary measures for groups at risk and of raising awareness among university students. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2015; 14(6.000: 460-467

  16. A decreasing trend in fall-related hip fracture incidence in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, E; Clapperton, A

    2013-01-01

    In Victoria, Australia, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased significantly by 25% over the period 1998/1999-2008/2009. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people. The study aim was to investigate trends in the incidence of fall-related and hip fracture hospitalisations among Victorians aged 65 years and older overall and by age, gender, country of birth, socio-economic status (SES) and location of the event (home, residential care institution, etc.) over the 11-year period 1998/1999 to 2008/2009. Annual counts and age-standardised rates for fall-related hospitalisations among people aged 65 years and older were estimated using Victorian hospital admissions data. The statistical significance of changes in trends over time were analysed using a log-linear regression model of the rate data assuming a Poisson distribution of cases. Although the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations increased significantly by 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9% to 18%) in Victoria, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased from 600/100,000 in 1998/1999 to 467/100,000 in 2008/2009 - an estimated overall reduction of 25% (95% CI, -29% to -22%). By contrast, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations for fractures at other body sites either increased significantly or showed no significant change. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in both males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in both Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people but not in people living in residential care facilities. Despite the downward trend in the age-standardised incidence of

  17. THE ORGANIZATIONAL PRINCIPLES OF CONSTRUCTION THE SYSTEM OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF SECONDARY EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А. Haniukova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article deals the structure and content of the statistical analysis secondary education. Particular attention is paid the organization principles of constructing a system of statistical indicators of the status and trends of the phenomenon. Courtesy a system of indicators, that containing existing indicators and proposed by the author. The analysis of which will increase the efficiency of public administration in the area.</