Resting-state theta-band connectivity and verbal memory in schizophrenia and in the high-risk state.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreou, Christina; Leicht, Gregor; Nolte, Guido; Polomac, Nenad; Moritz, Steffen; Karow, Anne; Hanganu-Opatz, Ileana L; Engel, Andreas K; Mulert, Christoph

2015-02-01

Disturbed functional connectivity is assumed to underlie neurocognitive deficits in patients with schizophrenia. As neurocognitive deficits are already present in the high-risk state, identification of the neural networks involved in this core feature of schizophrenia is essential to our understanding of the disorder. Resting-state studies enable such investigations, while at the same time avoiding the known confounder of impaired task performance in patients. The aim of the present study was to investigate EEG resting-state connectivity in high-risk individuals (HR) compared to first episode patients with schizophrenia (SZ) and to healthy controls (HC), and its association with cognitive deficits. 64-channel resting-state EEG recordings (eyes closed) were obtained for 28 HR, 19 stable SZ, and 23 HC, matched for age, education, and parental education. The imaginary coherence-based multivariate interaction measure (MIM) was used as a measure of connectivity across 80 cortical regions and six frequency bands. Mean connectivity at each region was compared across groups using the non-parametric randomization approach. Additionally, the network-based statistic was applied to identify affected networks in patients. SZ displayed increased theta-band resting-state MIM connectivity across midline, sensorimotor, orbitofrontal regions and the left temporoparietal junction. HR displayed intermediate theta-band connectivity patterns that did not differ from either SZ or HC. Mean theta-band connectivity within the above network partially mediated verbal memory deficits in SZ and HR. Aberrant theta-band connectivity may represent a trait characteristic of schizophrenia associated with neurocognitive deficits. As such, it might constitute a promising target for novel treatment applications. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

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Alan Raybould

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

Risk factors for acute stroke among South Asians compared to other racial/ethnic groups.

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Gezmu, Tefera; Schneider, Dona; Demissie, Kitaw; Lin, Yong; Gizzi, Martin S

2014-01-01

Studies of racial/ethnic variations in stroke rarely consider the South Asian population, one of the fastest growing sub-groups in the United States. This study compared risk factors for stroke among South Asians with those for whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics. Data on 3290 stroke patients were analyzed to examine risk differences among the four racial/ethnic groups. Data on 3290 patients admitted to a regional stroke center were analyzed to examine risk differences for ischemic stroke (including subtypes of small and large vessel disease) among South Asians, whites, African Americans and Hispanics. South Asians were younger and had higher rates of diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose levels than other race/ethnicities. Prevalence of diabetic and antiplatelet medication use, as well as the incidence of small-artery occlusion ischemic stroke was also higher among South Asians. South Asians were almost a decade younger and had comparable socioeconomic levels as whites; however, their stroke risk factors were comparable to that of African Americans and Hispanics. Observed differences in stroke may be explained by dietary and life style choices of South Asian-Americans, risk factors that are potentially modifiable. Future population and epidemiologic studies should consider growing ethnic minority groups in the examination of the nature, outcome, and medical care profiles of stroke.

RISK AS AN OBJECT OF STATE REGULATION

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Perfilyev A. A.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider the possible mechanism of enterprise risk management from macroeconomic perspective. The need for investment risk management from the standpoint of the economy as a whole is determined by the following circumstances. Financial market conditions affecting the investment decisions of companies raises the financial markets in the category of the main sources of investment resources. This creates a state's interest in the effect on these sources, but it doesn't have effective ways to influence the investors’ decisions. Transition of regulator from influencing the cash flows to the regulation of investment activity creates a new paradigm for the financial management of the economy, which is based on a well-known fact that in the global economy the demand for goods and services is presented as a demand, mediated by investment decisions. The motives and mechanisms of investment decisions in a closed economy are well described by modern financial theory. In financial theory a mechanism of financial risk management is developed primarily from the standpoint of an investor, ignoring the problem in a broader context - within whole financial market of a country. Expanding the area of investment decisions international financial markets generate a need for new approaches to study of investment risks of corporations, which in this field are connected with country risk and should be considered as an object of state regulation. An analysis of fundamentals of the financial theory about the behavior of the investor, the state and the role of global financial markets in the choice of investors reveals that investment motives of corporations and mechanisms of regulators' influence on the cash flow are loosely bound in the matter of the volume of investments, which ones agree to implement, while others expect to receive. In our view, there is a need for a mechanism allowing the state to influence the investment decisions

Risk factors for acute stroke among South Asians compared to other racial/ethnic groups.

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Tefera Gezmu

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies of racial/ethnic variations in stroke rarely consider the South Asian population, one of the fastest growing sub-groups in the United States. This study compared risk factors for stroke among South Asians with those for whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics. METHODS: Data on 3290 stroke patients were analyzed to examine risk differences among the four racial/ethnic groups. Data on 3290 patients admitted to a regional stroke center were analyzed to examine risk differences for ischemic stroke (including subtypes of small and large vessel disease among South Asians, whites, African Americans and Hispanics. RESULTS: South Asians were younger and had higher rates of diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose levels than other race/ethnicities. Prevalence of diabetic and antiplatelet medication use, as well as the incidence of small-artery occlusion ischemic stroke was also higher among South Asians. South Asians were almost a decade younger and had comparable socioeconomic levels as whites; however, their stroke risk factors were comparable to that of African Americans and Hispanics. DISCUSSION: Observed differences in stroke may be explained by dietary and life style choices of South Asian-Americans, risk factors that are potentially modifiable. Future population and epidemiologic studies should consider growing ethnic minority groups in the examination of the nature, outcome, and medical care profiles of stroke.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

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Verbeke Sven

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

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Dino J Levy

Full Text Available The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

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Levy, Dino J; Thavikulwat, Amalie C; Glimcher, Paul W

2013-01-01

The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

Comparing Guidelines for Statin Treatment in Canada and the United States.

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Hennessy, Deirdre A; Bushnik, Tracey; Manuel, Douglas G; Anderson, Todd J

2015-07-14

New guidelines for cardiovascular disease risk assessment and statin eligibility have recently been published in the United States by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC-AHA). It is unknown how these guidelines compare with the Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) recommendations. Using data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey 2007-2011, we estimated the cardiovascular disease risk and proportion of the Canadian population, aged 40 to 75 years without cardiovascular disease, who would theoretically be eligible for statin treatment under both the CCS and ACC-AHA guidelines. The survey sample used (n=1975) represented 13.1 million community dwelling Canadians between the ages of 40 and 75 years. In comparing the CVD risk assessment methods, we found that calculated CVD risk was higher based on the CCS guidelines compared with the ACC-AHA guidelines. Despite this, a similar proportion and number of Canadians would be eligible for statin treatment under the 2 sets of recommendations. Some discordance in recommendations was found within subgroups of the population, with the CCS guidelines recommending more treatment for individuals who are younger, with a family history of CVD, or with chronic kidney disease. The ACC-AHA recommend more treatment for people who are older (age 60+ years). These results likely overestimate the treatment rate under both guidelines because, in primary prevention, a clinician-patient discussion must occur before treatment and determines uptake. Implementing the ACC-AHA lipid treatment guidelines in Canada would not result in an increase in individuals eligible for statin treatment. In fact, the proportion of the population recommended for statin treatment would decrease slightly and be targeted at different subgroups of the population. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Development and distribution of radon risk maps in New York State

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitto, M.E.; Kunz, C.O.; New York State Univ., Albany, NY; Green, J.G.

2001-01-01

Radon maps for each county in New York State have been developed on the township level indicating the percent of homes with ≥ 148 Bq/m 3 (4 pCi/l) in the indoor air of the basement and living area. Estimates are based on a combination of nearly 45,000 basement-screening measurements and correlations to surficial geology. Many of the towns and cities in the State with the highest average indoor radon concentrations are located on highly-permeable gravelly soils formed during the retreat of the Wisconsinan Glaciation. As many towns (32% of total) had ≤ 5 measurements, a project to obtain additional measurements in high-risk towns produced results comparable to estimates based on correlations to surficial geology. Radon risk maps for each county have been distributed to municipal governments, schools, and professionals in activities related to homes, buildings, and indoor air quality. (author)

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Devooght, J.

1983-01-01

Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

Quantifying women's stated benefit-risk trade-off preferences for IBS treatment outcomes.

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Johnson, F Reed; Hauber, A Brett; Ozdemir, Semra; Lynd, Larry

2010-01-01

The Food and Drug Administration, currently, is exploring quantitative benefit-risk methods to support regulatory decision-making. A scientifically valid method for assessing patients' benefit-risk trade-off preferences is needed to compare risks and benefits in a common metric. The study aims to quantify the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) of treatment-related adverse events (AEs) that women with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are willing to accept in exchange for symptom relief. A stated-choice survey was used to elicit trade-off preferences among constructed treatment profiles, each defined by symptom severity and treatment-related AEs. Symptom attributes included frequency of abdominal pain and discomfort, frequency of diarrhea, and frequency of urgency. AE attributes included frequency of mild-to-moderate constipation and the risk of four possible serious AEs. A Web-enabled survey was administered to 589 female US residents at least 18 years of age with a self-reported diagnosis of diarrhea-predominant IBS. Preference weights and MAR were estimated using mixed-logit methods. SUBJECTS were willing to accept higher risks of serious AEs in return for treatments offering better symptom control. For an improvement from the lowest to the highest of four benefit levels, subjects were willing to tolerate a 2.65% increase in impacted-bowel risk, but only a 1.34% increase in perforated-bowel risk. Variation in MARs across AE types is consistent with the relative seriousness of the AEs. Stated-preference methods offer a scientifically valid approach to quantifying benefit-risk trade-off preferences that can be used to inform regulatory decision-making.

Postprandial lipemia detects the effect of soy protein on cardiovascular disease risk compared with the fasting lipid profile.

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Santo, Antonio S; Santo, Ariana M; Browne, Richard W; Burton, Harold; Leddy, John J; Horvath, Steven M; Horvath, Peter J

2010-12-01

Studies examining the effect of soy protein on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors have not taken advantage of the postprandial state as an adjunct to the fasting lipid profile. The American Heart Association has acknowledged the efficacy of soy protein in reducing CVD risk factors to be limited. We hypothesized that the postprandial state would be more sensitive to any favorable changes associated with consuming soy protein compared with the fasting lipid profile. Furthermore, the presence of isoflavones in soy would enhance this effect. Thirty sedentary males aged 18-30 years were randomly assigned to milk protein (Milk), isoflavone-poor soy (Soy-), or isoflavone-rich soy (Soy+). Usual diets were supplemented with 25 g/day of protein for 28 days. Serum samples were collected before and after supplementation in a fasted state and postprandially at 30, 60, 120, 240, and 360 min after a high-fat, 1,000 kcal shake. Triacylglycerol (TAG), total cholesterol, non-esterified fatty acids, apolipoproteins B-100 and A-I and glucose concentrations were quantified. Fasting concentrations were not different after any protein supplementation. Postprandial TAG and TAG AUC increased after Soy-consumption supporting the postprandial state as a more sensitive indicator of soy ingestion effects on CVD risk factors compared with the fasting lipid profile. Furthermore, the absence of isoflavones in soy protein may have deleterious consequences on purported cardio-protective effects.

Borders and border representations: Comparative approximations among the United States and Latin America

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Marcos Cueva Perus

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This article uses a comparative approach regarding frontier symbols and myths among the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean. Although wars fought over frontiers have greatly diminished throughout the world, the conception of frontier still held by the United States is that of a nationalist myth which embodies a semi-religious faith in the free market and democracy. On the other hand, Latin American and Caribbean countries, whose frontiers are far more complex, have shown extraordinary stability for several decades. This paper points out the risks involved in the spread of United States´ notions of frontier which, in addition, go hand-in-hand with the problem of multicultural segmentation. Although Latin American and Caribbean frontiers may be stable, they are vulnerable to the infiltration of foreing frontier representations.

Animated graphics for comparing two risks: a cautionary tale.

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Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Witteman, Holly O; Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Exe, Nicole L; Kahn, Valerie C; Dickson, Mark

2012-07-25

The increasing use of computer-administered risk communications affords the potential to replace static risk graphics with animations that use motion cues to reinforce key risk messages. Research on the use of animated graphics, however, has yielded mixed findings, and little research exists to identify the specific animations that might improve risk knowledge and patients' decision making. To test whether viewing animated forms of standard pictograph (icon array) risk graphics displaying risks of side effects would improve people's ability to select the treatment with the lowest risk profile, as compared with viewing static images of the same risks. A total of 4198 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel read a scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment was described as equally effective but varied in side effects (with one option slightly better than the other). Participants were randomly assigned to receive all risk information in 1 of 10 pictograph formats in a quasi-factorial design. We compared a control condition of static grouped icons with a static scattered icon display and with 8 Flash-based animated versions that incorporated different combinations of (1) building the risk 1 icon at a time, (2) having scattered risk icons settle into a group, or (3) having scattered risk icons shuffle themselves (either automatically or by user control). We assessed participants' ability to choose the better treatment (choice accuracy), their gist knowledge of side effects (knowledge accuracy), and their graph evaluation ratings, controlling for subjective numeracy and need for cognition. When compared against static grouped-icon arrays, no animations significantly improved any outcomes, and most showed significant performance degradations. However, participants who received animations of grouped icons in which at-risk icons appeared 1 at a time performed as well on all outcomes as the static grouped-icon control group

The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management.

Science.gov (United States)

Bankoff, Greg; Hilhorst, Dorothea

2009-10-01

It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary-which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management-different realities continue to make for different responses.

Comparative risk assessment: an element for a more rational and ethical approach to radiation risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Danesi, P.R.

2006-01-01

Peaceful nuclear technologies are still perceived by a large fraction of the general public, the media as well as by some decision makers, as more risky than many other 'conventional' technologies. One of the approaches that can help bringing more rationality and ethics into the picture is to present the risk associated with radiation and nuclear technologies in the frame of correctly conducted comparative risk assessments. However, comparing different risks is not so straightforward because quantifying different risks on a comparable scale requires overcoming both conceptual and practical difficulties. Risk (R) can be expressed as the product of the probability (P) that a given undesired event, the risk, will occur, times the consequences of this event (C), i.e. R = P x C. Although in principle risks could be compared by simply ranking them according to the different values of R, this simplistic approach is not always possible because to correctly compare risks all factors, circumstances and assumptions should be mutually equivalent and quantified and the (often large) uncertainties taken into proper account. In the case of radiation risk, ICRP has assumed as valid the LNT model, (probability coefficient of 5 % per Sievert for attributable death from cancer) and selected the present equivalent dose limit of 1 mSv per year for public exposure. This dose corresponds to 50 lethal cancers by 1 million people exposed and is approximately equivalent (in terms of probability of death) to the risk of bicycling for 600 km, driving for 3200 km, crossing a busy road twice a day for 1 year, smoking 2.5 packets of cigarettes or being X-rayed once for kidney metabolism. However, according to many scientists on the basis of both epidemiological and biological results and considerations, the actual risk is far lower than that predicted by the LNT model. Nevertheless, the policies and myths that were created about half a century ago are still persisting and have lead the general

Voice problems among Slovenian physicians compared to the teachers: Prevalence and risk factors

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Maja Šereh Bahar

2012-09-01

Conclusions: The prevalence of voice disorders among outpatients’ physicians in Slovenia is high and is comparable to the incidence of voice problems in Slovenian teachers. URI is the most common cause of these voice problems. GERD, allergies and an age over 40 years were stated as the risk factors for voice disorders. In order to reduce the extent of voice problems, lessons on vocal hygiene, and additional information about diseases causing voice disorders should be included in their postgraduate education.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

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Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai

2018-01-01

BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

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Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

2018-04-01

The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

The Concept of State Capacity: Comparative International Ratings against State Legitimacy

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Vladimir Gennadievich Ivanov

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the given article, the author analyzes the concept of state capacity, widely popular among political scientists and international relations specialists. The author proves that the evaluations of the level of state capacity of the developing and postcommunist countries based on popular comparative ratings are generally biased because of methodological defects and discrepancy of the whole theory as well as politicization and indoctrination of the given ratings. The negative evaluations of the quality of the government and state capacity of a country could be used to discredit and delegitimize the political regime as well as substantiation of mass protests and color revolutions and a tool of information war. The author concludes that numerous comparative international ratings are often used as a tool of political influence.

Firearms and suicide in the United States: is risk independent of underlying suicidal behavior?

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Matthew; Barber, Catherine; White, Richard A; Azrael, Deborah

2013-09-15

On an average day in the United States, more than 100 Americans die by suicide; half of these suicides involve the use of firearms. In this ecological study, we used linear regression techniques and recently available state-level measures of suicide attempt rates to assess whether, and if so, to what extent, the well-established relationship between household firearm ownership rates and suicide mortality persists after accounting for rates of underlying suicidal behavior. After controlling for state-level suicide attempt rates (2008-2009), higher rates of firearm ownership (assessed in 2004) were strongly associated with higher rates of overall suicide and firearm suicide, but not with nonfirearm suicide (2008-2009). Furthermore, suicide attempt rates were not significantly related to gun ownership levels. These findings suggest that firearm ownership rates, independent of underlying rates of suicidal behavior, largely determine variations in suicide mortality across the 50 states. Our results support the hypothesis that firearms in the home impose suicide risk above and beyond the baseline risk and help explain why, year after year, several thousand more Americans die by suicide in states with higher than average household firearm ownership compared with states with lower than average firearm ownership.

Racialized risk environments in a large sample of people who inject drugs in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Hannah L F; Linton, Sabriya; Kelley, Mary E; Ross, Zev; Wolfe, Mary E; Chen, Yen-Tyng; Zlotorzynska, Maria; Hunter-Jones, Josalin; Friedman, Samuel R; Des Jarlais, Don; Semaan, Salaam; Tempalski, Barbara; DiNenno, Elizabeth; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2016-01-01

Substantial racial/ethnic disparities exist in HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in many countries. To strengthen efforts to understand the causes of disparities in HIV-related outcomes and eliminate them, we expand the "Risk Environment Model" to encompass the construct "racialized risk environments," and investigate whether PWID risk environments in the United States are racialized. Specifically, we investigate whether black and Latino PWID are more likely than white PWID to live in places that create vulnerability to adverse HIV-related outcomes. As part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, 9170 PWID were sampled from 19 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2009. Self-reported data were used to ascertain PWID race/ethnicity. Using Census data and other administrative sources, we characterized features of PWID risk environments at four geographic scales (i.e., ZIP codes, counties, MSAs, and states). Means for each feature of the risk environment were computed for each racial/ethnic group of PWID, and were compared across racial/ethnic groups. Almost universally across measures, black PWID were more likely than white PWID to live in environments associated with vulnerability to adverse HIV-related outcomes. Compared to white PWID, black PWID lived in ZIP codes with higher poverty rates and worse spatial access to substance abuse treatment and in counties with higher violent crime rates. Black PWID were less likely to live in states with laws facilitating sterile syringe access (e.g., laws permitting over-the-counter syringe sales). Latino/white differences in risk environments emerged at the MSA level (e.g., Latino PWID lived in MSAs with higher drug-related arrest rates). PWID risk environments in the US are racialized. Future research should explore the implications of this racialization for racial/ethnic disparities in HIV-related outcomes, using appropriate methods. Copyright © 2015

State review United States of America. Risks and risk assessment according to the law of the United States of America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feldmann, F.J.

1980-01-01

In the chapter 'Risk Assessment in Atomic Energy Law of the United States' of this report you find among other things the Atomic Energy Act, the approval conditions, General Design Criteria for Nuclear Power Plants, the defense-in-depth concept, probabilistic safety studies, probabilistic probability assessments in the case of external influences onto nuclear power plants, quantitative analyses of the consequences of conceivable accidents, reduction of radiation exposure, the National Environmental Policy Act, the environmental compatibility declaration, the so-called residual risk under the environmental aspect, the classification of the accidents into 9 types, new developments concerning accident analysis, effects of the nuclear fuel cycle on environment, indicial decisions. The chapter about 'Risk Assessment in Civil Law, Criminal Law and Law on Protection of the Environment', deals among other things with the Law on nuisance, the Clean Air Act, the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act. In 'Problems of the Cost-Efficiency-Analysis' the significance and purpose of this analysis, the availability of data and information, the monetary quantification of risks and costs, alternatives and the danger of misuse are illustrated. (HSCH) [de

NIR - State of the risk discussion today

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldermann, C.; Bernhardt, J.H.; Brueggemeyer, H.; Leitgeb, N.; Reichardt, R.; Steinmetz, M.

2006-01-01

The actual state of knowledge on health risks of non-ionizing radiation is discussed on an international as well as a national basis. Emphasis is given to EMF risks when using mobile phones on the one hand, and to the dangers from natural and artificial UV radiation on the other. Furthermore, a comprehensive compilation is given of national laws and regulations for telecommunication and mobile phones in Germany. (Orig.)

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mkael Symmonds

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

Comparing the lifetime risks of TNF-alpha inhibitor use to common benchmarks of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaminska, Edi; Patel, Isha; Dabade, Tushar S; Chang, Jongwha; Qureshi, Ayub A; O'Neill, Jenna L; Balkrishnan, Rajesh; Feldman, Steven R

2013-04-01

The study aims to illustrate the range of lifetime risks of lymphoma, tuberculosis (TB), and demyelinating diseases with TNF-α inhibitors in psoriasis patients. Previously published data and online resources were used to determine the risk of the TB, demyelinating disease, and lymphoma with and without TNF-α inhibitor treatment. Lifetime risks for heart disease and stroke were collected using a Medline search. All cancer, trauma, and environmental statistics were obtained from the data published by National Cancer Institute, National Safety Council, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, respectively. The lifetime risks of TNF-α-inhibitor-linked conditions and comparators are as follows: TNF-α inhibitor-linked conditions: lymphoma with: without TNF-α inhibitors (0.5-4.8%:2.3%), TB with:without TNF-α inhibitors (0-17.1%:0.3%), and demyelinating disease with:without TNF-α inhibitors (0.1-1.7%:0.15%). Comparators: cancer (40.4%), heart disease (36.2%), stroke (18.4%), accidental death (3.0%), motor vehicle death (1.2%), and lightning strike (0.033%). Much of the data on lifetime risks of disease with TNF-α inhibitor were for patients with rheumatoid arthritis and not psoriasis. The risks of lymphoma, demyelinating diseases, and tuberculosis with TNF-α inhibitors are lower than risks patients face on a regular basis. Screening reduces the risk of tuberculosis in patients receiving TNF-α inhibitors.

Information Uncertainty to Compare Qualitative Reasoning Security Risk Assessment Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

The security risk associated with malevolent acts such as those of terrorism are often void of the historical data required for a traditional PRA. Most information available to conduct security risk assessments for these malevolent acts is obtained from subject matter experts as subjective judgements. Qualitative reasoning approaches such as approximate reasoning and evidential reasoning are useful for modeling the predicted risk from information provided by subject matter experts. Absent from these approaches is a consistent means to compare the security risk assessment results. Associated with each predicted risk reasoning result is a quantifiable amount of information uncertainty which can be measured and used to compare the results. This paper explores using entropy measures to quantify the information uncertainty associated with conflict and non-specificity in the predicted reasoning results. The measured quantities of conflict and non-specificity can ultimately be used to compare qualitative reasoning results which are important in triage studies and ultimately resource allocation. Straight forward extensions of previous entropy measures are presented here to quantify the non-specificity and conflict associated with security risk assessment results obtained from qualitative reasoning models.

Comparative assessment of spent nuclear fuel transportation routes using risk factors and a geographic information system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, D.M.

1996-01-01

The assessment of potential alternative routes was simplified through the use of six comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed, route-specific data. The route and environmental attributes varied strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The six comparative factors were risk measures of incident-free transportation radiation exposure, radiological accident population exposure, nonradiological accidents, contamination of environmental sensitive areas, environmental justice for minority populations, and environmental justice for low-income populations. An assessment of four real North-Central Florida routes provided a sample implementation of the analysis tools and risk factors. The assessment routes, consisting of common beginning and end locations, included an interstate highway, a rural highway, a mostly urban highway, and a combination interstate highway with rural bypass. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume, and the lowest percentages of minority and low-income populations, displayed the highest cumulative risk measure. Factors contributing to the high risk for the rural highway route included greater route length, higher vehicular fatality accident rates per vehicle mile traveled, and the close proximity to environmentally sensitive areas. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume

Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

2009-04-01

Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).

State Debt of the Republic of Moldova as Essential Factor of the Country Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodica HINCU

2010-12-01

Full Text Available State Debt of the Republic of Moldova as Essential Factor of the Country Risk Abstract: This paper discusses issues concerning of the state debt risk related to the Republic of Moldova and the determinants of the state debt in the context of the country risk. Special attention is devoted to analyzing the dynamics and structure of Moldova's foreign debt by currency and sector, in terms of the components parts of the foreign debt risk of Moldova - refinancing risk, currency risk and interest rate risk. It is analyzed the external state debt, publicly guaranteed, and non-guaranteed private external debt.

The nuclear industry's transition to risk-informed regulation and operation in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadak, Andrew C.; Matsuo, Toshihiro

2007-01-01

This paper summarizes a study of the transition of the United States nuclear industry from a prescriptive regulatory structure to a more risk informed approach to operations and regulations. The transition occurred over a 20 yr period in which gradual changes were made in the fundamental regulations and to the approach to nuclear safety and operations. While the number of actual regulatory changes were few, they are continuing. The utilities that embraced risk informed operations made dramatic changes in the way they approached operations and outage management. Those utilities that used risk in operations showed dramatic improvement in safety based on Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) performance indicators. It was also shown that the use of risk did not negatively affect safety performance of the plants compared to standard prescriptive approaches. This was despite having greater flexibility in compliance to regulatory standards and the use of the newly instituted risk-informed reactor oversight process. Key factors affecting the successful transition to a more risk-informed approach to regulations and operations are: strong top management support and leadership both at the regulator and the utility; education and training in risk principles and probabilistic risk Assessment tools for engineers, operators and maintenance staff; a slow and steady introduction of risk initiatives in areas that can show value to both the regulator and the industry; a transparent regulatory foundation built around a safety goal policy and the development of a strong safety culture at the utility to allow for more independence in safety compliance and risk management. The experience of the United States shows positive results in both safety and economics. The INPO and NRC metrics presented show that the use of risk information in operations and regulation is marginally better with no degradation in safety when plants that have embraced risk-informed approaches are compared

Migration from Mexico to the United States and subsequent risk for depressive and anxiety disorders: a cross-national study.

Science.gov (United States)

Breslau, Joshua; Borges, Guilherme; Tancredi, Daniel; Saito, Naomi; Kravitz, Richard; Hinton, Ladson; Vega, William; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio

2011-04-01

Migration is suspected to increase risk for depressive and anxiety disorders. To test the hypothesized increase in risk for depressive and anxiety disorders after arrival in the United States among Mexican migrants. We combined data from surveys conducted separately in Mexico and the United States that used the same diagnostic interview. Discrete time survival models were specified to estimate the relative odds of first onset of depressive disorders (major depressive episode and dysthymia) and anxiety disorders (generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, panic disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder) among migrants after their arrival in the United States compared with nonmigrant Mexicans who have a migrant in their immediate family. Population surveys in the United States and Mexico. Two thousand five hundred nineteen nonmigrant family members of migrants in Mexico and 554 Mexican migrants in the United States. First onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder. After arrival in the United States, migrants had a significantly higher risk for first onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder than did nonmigrant family members of migrants in Mexico (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.94). Associations between migration and disorder varied across birth cohorts. Elevated risk among migrants relative to nonmigrants was restricted to the 2 younger cohorts (those aged 18-25 or 26-35 years at interview). In the most recent birth cohort, the association between migration and first onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder was particularly strong (odds ratio, 3.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-5.53). This is, to our knowledge, the first study to compare risk for first onset of psychiatric disorder between representative samples of migrants in the United States and nonmigrants in Mexico. The findings are consistent with the hypothesized adverse effect of migration from Mexico to the United States on the mental health of migrants, but only among

Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

OpenAIRE

Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

2012-01-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

[Psychosocial risk factors in adolescent tobacco use: negative mood-states, peer group and parenting styles].

Science.gov (United States)

Julià Cano, Albert; Escapa Solanas, Sandra; Marí-Klose, Marga; Marí-Klose, Pau

2012-01-01

There are multiple factors that can affect the risk of tobacco use in adolescence. By analyzing these factors together we can disentangle the specific relevance of each of them in shaping teenagers' individual behavior. The goal of this research study is to deepen our understanding of the relationship between tobacco use in adolescence and socio-demographic and socio-emotional variables. We worked with a representative sample of 2,289 Catalan teenagers (aged 15-18) who responded to a questionnaire drawn up by the Families and Children Panel. Regression models were developed to assess the statistical associations of different mood states (sadness, nervousness and loneliness), peer-group characteristics and parenting styles, with tobacco use. The results indicate that addictive behavior is more likely when teenagers show negative mood states, controlling for socio-demographic variables and other risk factors. Among these additional factors, authoritative parenting styles reduce the risk of tobacco use, compared to authoritarian, permissive and neglectful parenting. Extensive tobacco use within the peer group is the risk factor most strongly associated with teenagers' individual behavior.

Preventive dentistry: practitioners' recommendations for low-risk patients compared with scientific evidence and practice guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Frame, P S; Sawai, R; Bowen, W H; Meyerowitz, C

2000-02-01

The purpose of this article is to compare published evidence supporting procedures to prevent dental caries and periodontal disease, in low-risk patients, with the actual preventive recommendations of practicing dentists. Methods included (1) a survey questionnaire of general dentists practicing in western New York State concerning the preventive procedures they would recommend and at what intervals for low-risk children, young adults, and older adults; and (2) review of the published, English-language literature for evidence supporting preventive dental interventions. The majority of dentists surveyed recommended semiannual visits for visual examination and probing to detect caries (73% to 79%), and scaling and polishing to prevent periodontal disease (83% to 86%) for low-risk patients of all ages. Bite-wing radiographs were recommended for all age groups at annual or semiannual intervals. In-office fluoride applications were recommended for low-risk children at intervals of 6 to 12 months by 73% of dentists but were recommended for low-risk older persons by only 22% of dentists. Application of sealants to prevent pit and fissure caries was recommended for low-risk children by 22% of dentists. Literature review found no studies comparing different frequencies of dental examinations and bite-wing radiographs to determine the optimal screening interval in low-risk patients. Two studies of the effect of scaling and polishing on the prevention of periodontal disease found no benefit from more frequent than annual treatments. Although fluoride is clearly a major reason for the decline in the prevalence of dental caries, there are no studies of the incremental benefit of in-office fluoride treatments for low-risk patients exposed to fluoridated water and using fluoridated toothpaste. Comparative studies using outcome end points are needed to determine the optimal frequency of dental examinations and bite-wing radiographs for the early detection of caries, and of scaling

State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

2009-05-01

To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

Discursive junctions in flood risk governance - A comparative understanding in six European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufmann, Maria; Wiering, Mark

2017-07-01

Flood risks are managed differently across Europe. While a number of research studies aim to understand these differences, they tend to pay little attention to the social constructionist aspects of flood risk governance, i.e. the meaning that societies give to flood risk and governance. This paper aims to address this gap by understanding differences in flood risk management approaches (FRMA) from a discursive-institutional perspective. Based on this perspective, an analytical framework was developed to systematically analyse and compare discourses pertaining to flood risk and its governance in six European member states (England (the United Kingdom), Flanders (Belgium), France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden). Correspondingly, this paper demonstrates how the hegemonic discursive-institutional patterns of flood risk governance differ between the six European countries. These differences may influence the capability of countries to learn from each other, adopt new FRMAs or cooperate with each other. Moreover, the paper argues that differences in discourses partially account for the differences in FRMAs between countries, combined with other factors. Additionally, broader implications are discussed. For example, the research findings imply that some discourses tend to favour or disfavour other discourses, and that they additionally also tend to favour particular FRMAs; e.g. the flood risk discourse pertaining to high manageability of risks seems to favour a governance discourse of collectivity and central governance. The different insights imply that further research is necessary to understand the complex interaction of discourses and institutional arrangements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala].

Science.gov (United States)

García-Juárez, Guillermina; Ramírez-Bribiesca, J Efrén; Hernández-Vázquez, Maricela; Hernández-Calva, Luz Marina; Díaz-Aparicio, Efrén; Orozco-Bolaños, Hermila

2014-01-01

To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in goats and humans was determined. 46.9% of producers know the programs of vaccination against brucellosis; 19.7% apply the vaccine and 80.3% do not apply the vaccine. Huamantla had the highest seroprevalence of animal brucellosis in 66.8%; San Jose Teacalco distributes unpasteurized cheeses to a distance of 270 km, increasing the risk of infection with brucellosis. Ixtenco recorded the highest prevalence of brucellosis in humans, with 1.51%. The municipalities studied present risks of infection and spread of brucellosis.

Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

2014-01-01

Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Evans, Scott

2016-01-01

Comparing diagnostic tests on accuracy alone can be inconclusive. For example, a test may have better sensitivity than another test yet worse specificity. Comparing tests on benefit risk may be more conclusive because clinical consequences of diagnostic error are considered. For benefit-risk evaluation, we propose diagnostic yield, the expected distribution of subjects with true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative test results in a hypothetical population. We construct a table of diagnostic yield that includes the number of false positive subjects experiencing adverse consequences from unnecessary work-up. We then develop a decision theory for evaluating tests. The theory provides additional interpretation to quantities in the diagnostic yield table. It also indicates that the expected utility of a test relative to a perfect test is a weighted accuracy measure, the average of sensitivity and specificity weighted for prevalence and relative importance of false positive and false negative testing errors, also interpretable as the cost-benefit ratio of treating non-diseased and diseased subjects. We propose plots of diagnostic yield, weighted accuracy, and relative net benefit of tests as functions of prevalence or cost-benefit ratio. Concepts are illustrated with hypothetical screening tests for colorectal cancer with test positive subjects being referred to colonoscopy.

Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Putter, H.; Fiocco, M.; Geskus, R. B.

2007-01-01

Standard survival data measure the time span from some time origin until the occurrence of one type of event. If several types of events occur, a model describing progression to each of these competing risks is needed. Multi-state models generalize competing risks models by also describing

Improving of State Regional Policy Mechanism at Risks` Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roman Tarasovich Lukysha

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Modernization and innovatization were defined as the ways of improvement of the state policy of regional development from the safety perspective. They stipulate the following: 1 avoidance of the possible risks of the development of regions providing for the refusal of the unreliable programs and projects, unreasonable taking on credit and other kinds of loans; 2 risk sharing and convergence, as well as the reduction of their influence on the results of administrative activity; 3 determination and prevention of negative effect of risks. It was offered to carry out the improvement of the state policy of the development of regions with the help of the forming of stable organizational and informational network and system. It was specified that the difference between the latter is in the fact that the organizational and informational system concerns the financial side of administrative activity in regions. This means that it ensures the observance of the principle of transparency. While the organizational and informational network reflects its procedural side with the concept of openness being the basis of such activity. The improvement of the procedure of the organization of state administration of risks of the regional development was proved. It was established that organization of the state administration of the risks of regions development has a form of a chain: “provision of power and powers to the public authority → establishment of the new structural unit or addition of the existing administrative formations, approval of the functional regulations, official duties, etc. → competitive selection of the officials, their training, retraining, consulting → performance by them of the direct tasks on the detection and the prevention of the negative influence of dangers and threats.”

Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillermina García-Juárez

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objective. To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. Materials and methods. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in goats and humans was determined. Results. 46.9% of producers know the programs of vaccination against brucellosis; 19.7% apply the vaccine and 80.3% do not apply the vaccine. Huamantla had the highest seroprevalence of animal brucellosis in 66.8%; San Jose Teacalco distributes unpasteurized cheeses to a distance of 270 km, increasing the risk of infection with brucellosis. Ixtenco recorded the highest prevalence of brucellosis in humans, with 1.51%. Conclusion. The municipalities studied present risks of infection and spread of brucellosis.

Comparative risks from different energy systems: Evolution of the methods of studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L D [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)

1980-10-01

This conference has emphasized the difficulty in estimating energy-entailed health risks engendered by the differences between objective measures of risk - the estimated real or actual risk of a process - and the subjective perception of these risks. The subjective perception of risk colours the thinking of most decision-makers (including governments and their regulatory bodies), likewise the public. This confusion (apart from any fundamental psychological processes that may be involved) stems from the following: 1. Assessment of the health effects from different energy systems has had only brief and sparsely supported investigations to date, e.g., only seven years ago did government agencies in the USA evince interest in assessing their health effects. Less than seven years ago was there funding for work at Brookhaven. 2. Assessment differs from research. Assessing the health and environmental costs of energy production and use requires scrutiny of various diverse areas of research. Research is needed to define the pollutants emitted by various stages in various fuel cycles, including end-use, and to trace, then quantitate their chemical transformations, transport, including chemical and biological conversion through air, water, food, finally reaching man and important animals and crops. 3. In assessment, because of the state of knowledge (or lack of it), one frequently must make do with, say, only 60 per cent certainty rather than with the 95 per cent significance level that one strives to achieve from research. This statistical gap itself attracts special interest groups, e.g., governments and utilities, who, from the earliest beginnings of comparative assessments, have for one or another reason exploited confusion between reality and perception of risk.

Comparative risks from different energy systems: Evolution of the methods of studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.

1980-01-01

This conference has emphasized the difficulty in estimating energy-entailed health risks engendered by the differences between objective measures of risk - the estimated real or actual risk of a process - and the subjective perception of these risks. The subjective perception of risk colours the thinking of most decision-makers (including governments and their regulatory bodies), likewise the public. This confusion (apart from any fundamental psychological processes that may be involved) stems from the following: 1. Assessment of the health effects from different energy systems has had only brief and sparsely supported investigations to date, e.g., only seven years ago did government agencies in the USA evince interest in assessing their health effects. Less than seven years ago was there funding for work at Brookhaven. 2. Assessment differs from research. Assessing the health and environmental costs of energy production and use requires scrutiny of various diverse areas of research. Research is needed to define the pollutants emitted by various stages in various fuel cycles, including end-use, and to trace, then quantitate their chemical transformations, transport, including chemical and biological conversion through air, water, food, finally reaching man and important animals and crops. 3. In assessment, because of the state of knowledge (or lack of it), one frequently must make do with, say, only 60 per cent certainty rather than with the 95 per cent significance level that one strives to achieve from research. This statistical gap itself attracts special interest groups, e.g., governments and utilities, who, from the earliest beginnings of comparative assessments, have for one or another reason exploited confusion between reality and perception of risk

The Psychosis High-Risk State A Comprehensive State-of-the-Art Review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Borgwardt, Stefan; Bechdolf, Andreas; Addington, Jean; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Keshavan, Matcheri; Wood, Stephen; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Seidman, Larry J.; Valmaggia, Lucia; Cannon, Tyrone; Velthorst, Eva; de Haan, Lieuwe; Cornblatt, Barbara; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Birchwood, Max; McGlashan, Thomas; Carpenter, William; McGorry, Patrick; Klosterkötter, Joachim; McGuire, Philip; Yung, Alison

2013-01-01

Context: During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms.

Cardiac arrest risk standardization using administrative data compared to registry data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne V Grossestreuer

Full Text Available Methods for comparing hospitals regarding cardiac arrest (CA outcomes, vital for improving resuscitation performance, rely on data collected by cardiac arrest registries. However, most CA patients are treated at hospitals that do not participate in such registries. This study aimed to determine whether CA risk standardization modeling based on administrative data could perform as well as that based on registry data.Two risk standardization logistic regression models were developed using 2453 patients treated from 2000-2015 at three hospitals in an academic health system. Registry and administrative data were accessed for all patients. The outcome was death at hospital discharge. The registry model was considered the "gold standard" with which to compare the administrative model, using metrics including comparing areas under the curve, calibration curves, and Bland-Altman plots. The administrative risk standardization model had a c-statistic of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.876-0.905 compared to a registry c-statistic of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.895-0.919. When limited to only non-modifiable factors, the administrative model had a c-statistic of 0.818 (95% CI: 0.799-0.838 compared to a registry c-statistic of 0.810 (95% CI: 0.788-0.831. All models were well-calibrated. There was no significant difference between c-statistics of the models, providing evidence that valid risk standardization can be performed using administrative data.Risk standardization using administrative data performs comparably to standardization using registry data. This methodology represents a new tool that can enable opportunities to compare hospital performance in specific hospital systems or across the entire US in terms of survival after CA.

Predicting risk for disciplinary action by a state medical board.

Science.gov (United States)

Cardarelli, Roberto; Licciardone, John C; Ramirez, Gilbert

2004-01-01

Disciplinary actions taken against physicians in the United States have been increasing over the last decade, yet the factors that place physicians at risk have not been well identified. The objective of this study is to identify predictors of physician disciplinary action. This case-control study used data from the Texas State Board of Medical Examiners from January 1989 through December 1998. Characteristics of disciplined physicians and predictors of disciplinary action for all violations and by type of violation were the main outcome descriptors. Years in practice, black physicians, and osteopathic graduates were positive predictors for disciplinary action. In contrast, female physicians, international medical graduates, and Hispanic and Asian physicians were less likely to receive disciplinary action compared with male, US allopathic, and white physicians, respectively. Most specialists, except psychiatrists and obstetrician-gynecologists, were less likely to be disciplined than were family practitioners, whereas general practitioners were more likely to be disciplined. More studies are needed to corroborate these findings.

Comparative effectiveness of 50g glucose challenge test and risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... of 50g glucose challenge test and risk factor based screening in detection of ... Mean maternal and gestational ages at recruitment were 30.8+1.2 years and ... Predictive Value, PPV - 20%) compared to risk factors only (PPV- 11.1%).

The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinez-Arias, R. [Universidad Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Prades, A. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Arranz, L. [Hospital Ramon y Cajal, Madrid (Spain); Macias, M.T. [CSIC, Madrid (Spain)

2000-05-01

Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)

The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez-Arias, R.; Prades, A.; Arranz, L.; Macias, M.T.

2000-01-01

Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)

Understanding public perceptions of benefits and risks of childhood vaccinations in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Geoboo

2014-03-01

In the face of a growing public health concern accompanying the reemerging threat of preventable diseases, this research seeks mainly to explain variations in the perceived benefits and risks of vaccinations among the general public in the United States. As Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky's grid-group cultural theory of risk perception claims, the analytical results based upon original data from a nationwide Internet survey of 1,213 American adults conducted in 2010 suggest that individuals' cultural predispositions contribute to the formation of their perceptions pertaining to vaccine benefits and risks at both societal and individual levels, in conjunction with other factors suggested by previous risk perception literature, such as perceived prevalence of diseases, trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Those with a strong hierarch orientation tend to envision greater benefits and lesser risks and conceive of a relatively high ratio of benefit to risk when compared to other cultural types. By contrast, those with a strong fatalist tendency are inclined to emphasize risks and downplay benefits while conceiving of a low vaccination benefit-risk ratio. Situated between hierarchs and fatalists, strong egalitarians are prone to perceive greater benefits, smaller risks, and a more positive benefit-risk ratio than strong individualists. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Disclosure and rationality: comparative risk information and decision-making about prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Peter H

2009-01-01

With the growing focus on prevention in medicine, studies of how to describe risk have become increasing important. Recently, some researchers have argued against giving patients "comparative risk information," such as data about whether their baseline risk of developing a particular disease is above or below average. The concern is that giving patients this information will interfere with their consideration of more relevant data, such as the specific chance of getting the disease (the "personal risk"), the risk reduction the treatment provides, and any possible side effects. I explore this view and the theories of rationality that ground it, and I argue instead that comparative risk information can play a positive role in decision-making. The criticism of disclosing this sort of information to patients, I conclude, rests on a mistakenly narrow account of the goals of prevention and the nature of rational choice in medicine.

Neuroimaging findings in the at-risk mental state: a review of recent literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Stephen J; Reniers, Renate L E P; Heinze, Kareen

2013-01-01

The at-risk mental state (ARMS) has been the subject of much interest during the past 15 years. A great deal of effort has been expended to identify neuroimaging markers that can inform our understanding of the risk state and to help predict who will transition to frank psychotic illness. Recently, there has been an explosion of neuroimaging literature from people with an ARMS, which has meant that reviews and meta-analyses lack currency. Here we review papers published in the past 2 years, and contrast their findings with previous reports. While it is clear that people in the ARMS do show brain alterations when compared with healthy control subjects, there is an overall lack of consistency as to which of these alterations predict the development of psychosis. This problem arises because of variations in methodology (in patient recruitment, region of interest, method of analysis, and functional task employed), but there has also been too little effort put into replicating previous research. Nonetheless, there are areas of promise, notably that activation of the stress system and increased striatal dopamine synthesis seem to mark out patients in the ARMS most at risk for later transition. Future studies should focus on these areas, and on network-level analysis, incorporating graph theoretical approaches and intrinsic connectivity networks.

One Idea of Portfolio Risk Control Focusing on States of Correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, Noboru

2004-04-01

In the modern portfolio theory there are 2 major risk parameters that mean and variance. Correlations should be playing important role as well but variance is thought to be most important risk parameter for risk control in the theory. I focused on states of correlation to calculate eigen values as risk control parameter.

26 CFR 1.953-2 - Actual United States risks.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... being the promotion of such sales to United States retail outlets by advertising in trade publications... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Actual United States risks. 1.953-2 Section 1.953-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX...

The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

2016-01-01

We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

Small-for-gestational age prevalence risk factors in central Appalachian states with mountain-top mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferdosi, Hamid; Lamm, Steve H; Afari-Dwamena, Nana Ama; Dissen, Elisabeth; Chen, Rusan; Li, Ji; Feinleib, Manning

2018-01-01

To identify risk factors for small-for-gestational age (SGA) for counties in central Appalachian states (Kentucky (KY), Tennessee (TN), Virginia (VA), and West Virginia (WV)) with varied coal mining activities. Live birth certificate files (1990-2002) were used for obtaining SGA prevalence rates for mothers based on the coal mining activities of their counties of residence, mountain-top mining (MTM) activities, underground mining activities but no mountain-top mining activity (non-MTM), or having no mining activities (non-mining). Co-variable information, including maternal tobacco use, was also obtained from the live birth certificate. Adjusted odds ratios were obtained using multivariable logistic regression comparing SGA prevalence rates for counties with coal mining activities to those without coal mining activities and comparing SGA prevalence rates for counties with coal mining activities for those with and without mountain-top mining activities. Comparisons were also made among those who had reported tobacco use and those who had not. Both tobacco use prevalence and SGA prevalence were significantly greater for mining counties than for non-mining counties and for MTM counties than for non-MTM counties. Adjustment for tobacco use alone explained 50% of the increased SGA risk for mining counties and 75% of the risk for MTM counties, including demographic pre-natal care co-variables that explained 75% of the increased SGA risk for mining counties and 100% of the risk for MTM. The increased risk of SGA was limited to the third trimester births among tobacco users and independent of the mining activities of their counties of residence. This study demonstrates that the increased prevalence of SGA among residents of counties with mining activity was primarily explained by the differences in maternal tobacco use prevalence, an effect that itself was gestational-age dependent. Self-reported tobacco use marked the population at the increased risk for SGA in central

Methods for comparative risk assessment of different energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

The environmental and health aspects of different energy systems, particularly those associated with the generation of electricity, are emerging as significant issues for policy formulation and implementation. This, together with the growing need of many countries to define their energy programmes for the next century, has provided the basis for a renewed interest in the comparative risk assessment of different energy sources (fossil, nuclear, renewables). This document is the outcome of a Specialists Meeting on the procedural and methodological issues associated with comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources. After an introductory chapter outlining the issues under consideration the papers presented at the Meeting, which have been indexed separately, are given. Refs, figs and tabs

76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-06

... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Christopher J L; Atkinson, Charles; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Burstein, Roy; Chou, David; Dellavalle, Robert; Danaei, Goodarz; Ezzati, Majid; Fahimi, A; Flaxman, D; Foreman; Gabriel, Sherine; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lopez; MacIntyre, Michael F; Mokdad, A H; Moran, A; Moran, Andrew E; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Moshen; Pope, C; Roberts, Thomas; Salomon, Joshua; Schwebel, David C; Shahraz, Saeid; Sleet, David A; Murray; Abraham, Jerry; Ali, Mohammed K; Atkinson, Charles; Bartels, David H; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Burstein, Roy; Chen, Honglei; Criqui, Michael H; Dahodwala; Jarlais; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Ebel, Beth E; Ezzati, Majid; Fahami; Flaxman, S; Flaxman, A D; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Grant, Bridget; Hagan, Holly; Hoffman, Howard; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Leasher, Janet L; Lin, John; Lipshultz, Steven E; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mallinger, Leslie; McDermott, Mary M; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mokdad, A A; Mokdad, A H; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Naghavi, Mohsen; Narayan, K M Venkat; Omer, Saad B; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Phillips, David; Ranganathan, Dharani; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Schwebel, David C; Sharaz, Saeid; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, David; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Wilkinson, James D; Zabetian, Azadeh; Murray; Abraham, Jerry; Ali, Mohammad K; Alvardo, Miriam; Atkinson, Charles; Baddour, Larry M; Benjamin, Emelia J; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Bolliger, Ian; Burstein, Roy; Carnahan, Emily; Chou, David; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cooper, Leslie T; Couser, William; Criqui, Michael H; Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C; Dellavalle, Robert P; Jarlais; Dicker, Daniel; Dorsey, E Ray; Duber, Herbert; Ebel, Beth E; Engell, Rebecca E; Ezzati, Majid; Felson, David T; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Flaxman, A D; Fleming, Thomas; Foreman; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gillum, Richard F; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Gosselin, Richard; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hagan, Holly; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hoffman, Howard; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; James, Spencer L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jayarman, Sudha; Johns, Nicole; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lan, Qing; Leasher, Janet L; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lopez; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mallinger, Leslie; Meltzer, Michele; Mensah, George A; Michaud, Catherine; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles; Moffitt, Terrie E; Mokdad, A A; Mokdad, A H; Moran, A; Naghavi, Mohsen; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nelson, Robert G; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Ortblad, Katrina; Ostro, Bart; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Phillips, David; Raju, Murugesan; Razavi, Homie; Ritz, Beate; Roberts, Thomas; Sacco, Ralph L; Salomon, Joshua; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Schwebel, David C; Shahraz, Saeid; Shibuya, Kenji; Silberberg, Donald; Singh, Jasvinder A; Steenland, Kyle; Taylor, Jennifer A; Thurston, George D; Vavilala, Monica S; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Gregory R; Weinstock, Martin A; Weisskopf, Marc G; Wulf, Sarah; Murray

2013-08-14

Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased

76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-06

... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of... INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis and Management.... These standard routine uses apply to State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records. POLICIES AND...

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Shanklin, Shari; Lim, Connie; Grunbaum, Jo Anne; Wechsler, Howell

2006-01-01

In the United States, 71% of all deaths among persons aged 10-24 years result from 4 causes: motor vehicle crashes, other unintentional injuries, homicide, and suicide. Results from the 2005 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) indicated that during the 30 days preceding the survey, many high school students engaged in behaviors that…

Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debon, A.; Carrion, A.; Cabrera, E.; Solano, H.

2010-01-01

The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Debon, A., E-mail: andeau@eio.upv.e [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Carrion, A. [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Cabrera, E. [Dpto. De Ingenieria Hidraulica Y Medio Ambiente, Instituto Tecnologico del Agua, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Solano, H. [Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago (Chile)

2010-01-15

The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

Prevalence and herd-level risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in the State of Paraná, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria do Carmo Pessôa Silva

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis is a zoonosis with worldwide distribution. Its control has a direct impact on public health and livestock production. This study estimated the prevalence of infected herds and adult bovines and evaluated risk factors associated with the presence of tuberculosis within herds in the state of Paraná. The state was divided in seven livestock regions and independent sampling was performed. A total of 1,419 farms were sampled and 16,045 animals were tested using the intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin diagnostic test. The apparent and estimated prevalence rates in farms and adult bovine animals were 2.15% (95% CI: 1.31-3.00 and 0.42% (95% CI: 0.04-0.81, respectively. It was not possible to state with 95% confidence that the disease prevalence in any region was significantly different from that in other regions. There were no positive animals in the western region, and the prevalence of positive herds and animals in the other regions ranged from 1.03% to 3.89% and 0.17% to 1.08%, respectively. The logistic regression model identified larger herd size (OR = 2.4 and mechanical cmilking (OR = 5.18 as risk factors associated with the presence of bovine tuberculosis. The combination of low prevalence with risk factors associated to larger herds and more intensive dairy farming, renders the state of Paraná a good candidate for the implementation of industry-based free-herd accreditation schemes and makes a case for planning risk-based surveillance targeted at major dairy basins.

Prediabetes: A high-risk state for developing diabetes

Science.gov (United States)

Tabák, Adam G.; Herder, Christian; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Brunner, Eric J.; Kivimäki, Mika

2013-01-01

Summary Prediabetes (or “intermediate hyperglycaemia”), based on glycaemic parameters above normal but below diabetes thresholds is a high risk state for diabetes with an annualized conversion rate of 5%–10%; with similar proportion converting back to normoglycaemia. The prevalence of prediabetes is increasing worldwide and it is projected that >470 million people will have prediabetes in 2030. Prediabetes is associated with the simultaneous presence of insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction, abnormalities that start before glucose changes are detectable. Observational evidence shows associations of prediabetes with early forms of nephropathy, chronic kidney disease, small fibre neuropathy, diabetic retinopathy, and increased risk of macrovascular disease. Multifactorial risk scores could optimize the estimation of diabetes risk using non-invasive parameters and blood-based metabolic traits in addition to glycaemic values. For prediabetic individuals, lifestyle modification is the cornerstone of diabetes prevention with evidence of a 40%–70% relative risk reduction. Accumulating data also suggests potential benefits from pharmacotherapy. PMID:22683128

Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yekaterina Y. Kontar

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

The meaning of results. Understanding comparative risk assessments of energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.; Holland, M.; Rabl, A.; Dreicer, M.

1999-01-01

Results of comparative risk assessments can be used for a range of potential applications: choice and balance of technologies for strategic energy planning; choice of a new power plant; optimal dispatching of existing plants; optimization of regulations (emission limits, environmental quality objectives such as air quality limits, tradable permits, pollution taxes); accounting for climate change. When reporting the results of comparative risk assessment, a number of factors should be clear: precise nature of the energy system being assessed; what has been excluded from the analysis; sources of data used in assessment; assumptions that have been made; and what the analysts and other experts have regarded as the key sensitivities in the analysis. If all factors are addressed, the results of comparative risk assessment will prove to be an essential resource for making the best decisions about energy options and policies

Putting risk analysis into perspective: a comparative review of major societal risk studies of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dooley, J.E.; Hansson, B.; Kaspersson, R.; ORiordan, T.; Paschen, H.

1983-04-01

The emphasis in this final report of the project Evaluation of major Swedish energy risk assessments in an international perspective is shifted towards the comparative aspect. The comprehensive nuclear risk study has been used as an instrument to satisfy many needs simultaneously. The research consisted of an examination of existing risk studies of five nations, namely West Germany, UK, US, Canada and Sweden. The effect of nuclear risk studies on society at large and on public attitude towards nuclear power in particular is discussed. Finally, the effect on the nuclear establishment is analysed. (G.B.)

Compared assessment of chemical risk and radiological risk for the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Garnier-Laplace, J.

2007-01-01

The environmental protection is today a global issue that concerns all the human activities. The challenge is to be able to prove their compatibility with the protection of the natural environment, but also if required to manage adequately a potential or established risk, generally in the context of ever strict regulations. Regarding the chemical aspects, known methods are available for the assessment of the associated risk for the environment. From the radiological point of view, the necessity to have such tools recently became more apparent, in order to justify for the public and with a full transparency the release of radioactive substances into the environment, to meet the requirements of the new regulations in terms of environmental protection and finally to harmonize the approaches between human and environmental radioprotection as well as between chemical and radioactive pollutants, simultaneously present for example in routine releases from nuclear power plants. At this end of harmonization, the assessment methodologies of the environmental risk linked to radionuclides or chemical substances are exposed from the theory to their comparative application, a new approach under development from which the first results are summarised. (authors)

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: consumer perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueland, Ø; Gunnlaugsdottir, H; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; White, B C; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

Benefit and risk perception with respect to food consumption, have been a part of human daily life from beginning of time. In today's society the food chain is long with many different types of actors and low degree of transparency. Making informed food choices where knowledge of benefits and risks is part of the decision making process are therefore complicated for consumers. Thus, to understand how consumers perceive benefits and risks of foods, their importance in relation to quality evaluations are aspects that need to be addressed. The objective of this paper is to discuss state of the art in understanding consumer perceptions of benefits and risks of foods in order to improve understanding of consumer behaviour in the food domain. Risks may be associated with both acute and long term consequences, some of which may have serious effects. Perceived risks are connected to morbidity and mortality along two dimensions relating to unknown risk, and to which extent the risk is dreaded by the consumer. Unfamiliar, uncertain, unknown, uncontrollable, and severe consequences are some factors associated with risk perception. Novel food processing techniques, for instance, score high on several of these parameters and are consequently regarded with suspicion and perceived as risky by consumers. On a daily basis, benefits of foods and food consumption are more important in most consumers' minds than risks. Benefits are often associated with food's ability to assuage hunger, and to provide pleasure through eating and socialising. In addition, two main categories of benefits that are important for acceptance of product innovations are health and environmental benefits. Benefit and risk perception of foods seem to be inversely correlated, so when something is perceived as being highly beneficial, it is correspondingly perceived as having low risk. However, slightly different paths are used in the formation of these perceptions; benefit perception is based on heuristics and

Refined avian risk assessment for chlorpyrifos in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Dwayne R J; Teed, R Scott; Greer, Colleen D; Solomon, Keith R; Giesy, John P

2014-01-01

Refined risk assessments for birds exposed to flowable and granular formulations ofCPY were conducted for a range of current use patterns in the United States. Overall,the collective evidence from the modeling and field study lines of evidence indicate that flowable and granular CPY do not pose significant risks to the bird communities foraging in agro-ecosystems in the United States. The available information indicates that avian incidents resulting from the legal, registered uses of CPY have been very infrequent since 2002 (see SI Appendix 3). The small number of recent incidents suggests that the current labels for CPY are generally protective of birds.However, incident data are uncertain because of the difficulties associated with finding dead birds in the field and linking any mortality observed to CPY.Plowable CPY is registered for a variety of crops in the United States including alfalfa, brassica vegetables, citrus, corn, cotton, grape, mint, onion, peanut, pome and stone fruits, soybean, sugar beet, sunflower, sweet potato, tree nuts, and wheat under the trade name Lorsban Advanced. The major routes of exposure for birds to flowable CPY were consumption of treated dietary items and drinking water. The Liquid Pesticide Avian Risk Assessment Model (Liquid PARAM) was used to simulate avian ingestion of CPY by these routes of exposure. For acute exposure,Liquid PARAM estimated the maximum retained dose in each of 20 birds on each of1,000 fields that were treated with CPY over the 60-d period following initial application.The model used a 1-h time step. For species lacking acceptable acute oral toxicity data (all focal species except northern bobwhite (C. virginianus) and redwinged blackbird (A. phoeniceus)), a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach was used to generate hypothetical dose-response curves assuming high, median and low sensitivity to CPY. For acute risk, risk curves were generated for each use pattern and exposure scenario. The risk

Identification and ranking of the risk factors of cloud computing in State-Owned organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noor Mohammad Yaghoubi

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Rapid development of processing and storage technologies and the success of the Internet have made computing resources cheaper, more powerful and more available than before. This technological trend has enabled the realization of a new computing model called cloud computing. Recently, the State-Owned organizations have begun to utilize cloud computing architectures, platforms, and applications to deliver services and meet constituents’ needs. Despite all of the advantages and opportunities of cloud computing technology, there are so many risks that State-Owned organizations need to know about before their migration to cloud environment. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks factors of cloud computing in State-Owned organizations by making use of IT experts’ opinion. Firstly, by reviewing key articles, a comprehensive list of risks factors were extracted and classified into two categories: tangible and intangible. Then, six experts were interviewed about these risks and their classifications, and 10 risks were identified. After that, process of ranking the risks was done by seeking help from 52 experts and by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. The results show that experts have identified intangible risks as the most important risks in cloud computing usage by State-Owned organizations. As the results indicate, "data confidentiality" risk has the highest place among the other risks.

Does Stigmatized Social Risk Lead to Denialism? Results from a Survey Experiment on Race, Risk Perception, and Health Policy in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yarrow Dunham

Full Text Available In this article, we report findings from an original survey experiment investigating the effects of different framings of disease threats on individual risk perceptions and policy priorities. We analyze responses from 1,946 white and African-American participants in a self-administered, web-based survey in the United States. We sought to investigate the effects of: 1 frames emphasizing disparities in the racial prevalence of disease and 2 frames emphasizing non-normative (blameworthy or stigmatized behavioral risk factors. We find some evidence that when treated with the first frame, African-Americans are more likely to report higher risk of infection (compared to an African-American control group and to whites receiving the same treatment; and that whites are more likely to report trust in government data (compared to a White control group and to African-Americans receiving the same treatment. Notwithstanding, we find no support for our hypotheses concerning the interactive effects of providing both frames, which was a central motivation for our study. We argue that this may be due to very large differences in risk perception at baseline (which generate limits on possible treatment effects and the fact that in the context of American race relations, it may not be possible to fully differentiate racialized and stigmatized frames.

The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

Science.gov (United States)

Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

2010-01-01

To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

Using Pipelined XNOR Logic to Reduce SEU Risks in State Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Martin; Zheng, Xin; Katanyoutant, Sunant

2008-01-01

Single-event upsets (SEUs) pose great threats to avionic systems state machine control logic, which are frequently used to control sequence of events and to qualify protocols. The risks of SEUs manifest in two ways: (a) the state machine s state information is changed, causing the state machine to unexpectedly transition to another state; (b) due to the asynchronous nature of SEU, the state machine's state registers become metastable, consequently causing any combinational logic associated with the metastable registers to malfunction temporarily. Effect (a) can be mitigated with methods such as triplemodular redundancy (TMR). However, effect (b) cannot be eliminated and can degrade the effectiveness of any mitigation method of effect (a). Although there is no way to completely eliminate the risk of SEU-induced errors, the risk can be made very small by use of a combination of very fast state-machine logic and error-detection logic. Therefore, one goal of two main elements of the present method is to design the fastest state-machine logic circuitry by basing it on the fastest generic state-machine design, which is that of a one-hot state machine. The other of the two main design elements is to design fast error-detection logic circuitry and to optimize it for implementation in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) architecture: In the resulting design, the one-hot state machine is fitted with a multiple-input XNOR gate for detection of illegal states. The XNOR gate is implemented with lookup tables and with pipelines for high speed. In this method, the task of designing all the logic must be performed manually because no currently available logic synthesis software tool can produce optimal solutions of design problems of this type. However, some assistance is provided by a script, written for this purpose in the Python language (an object-oriented interpretive computer language) to automatically generate hardware description language (HDL) code from state

The Psychosis High-Risk State

Science.gov (United States)

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Borgwardt, Stefan; Bechdolf, Andreas; Addington, Jean; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Keshavan, Matcheri; Wood, Stephen; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Seidman, Larry J.; Valmaggia, Lucia; Cannon, Tyrone; Velthorst, Eva; De Haan, Lieuwe; Cornblatt, Barbara; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Birchwood, Max; McGlashan, Thomas; Carpenter, William; McGorry, Patrick; Klosterkötter, Joachim; McGuire, Philip; Yung, Alison

2014-01-01

Context During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms. The importance of this HR state has been increasingly recognized to such an extent that a new syndrome is being considered as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5. Objective To reframe the HR state in a comprehensive state-of-the-art review on the progress that has been made while also recognizing the challenges that remain. Data Sources Available HR research of the past 20 years from PubMed, books, meetings, abstracts, and international conferences. Study Selection and Data Extraction Critical review of HR studies addressing historical development, inclusion criteria, epidemiologic research, transition criteria, outcomes, clinical and functional characteristics, neurocognition, neuroimaging, predictors of psychosis development, treatment trials, socioeconomic aspects, nosography, and future challenges in the field. Data Synthesis Relevant articles retrieved in the literature search were discussed by a large group of leading worldwide experts in the field. The core results are presented after consensus and are summarized in illustrative tables and figures. Conclusions The relatively new field of HR research in psychosis is exciting. It has the potential to shed light on the development of major psychotic disorders and to alter their course. It also provides a rationale for service provision to those in need of help who could not previously access it and the possibility of changing trajectories for those with vulnerability to psychotic illnesses. PMID:23165428

Nonlinear Uncertainty Propagation of Satellite State Error for Tracking and Conjunction Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-18

AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2017-0177 TR-2017-0177 NONLINEAR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION OF SATELLITE STATE ERROR FOR TRACKING AND CONJUNCTION RISK...Uncertainty Propagation of Satellite State Error for Tracking and Conjunction Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9453-16-1-0084 5b. GRANT NUMBER...prediction and satellite conjunction analysis. Statistical approach utilizes novel methods to build better uncertainty state characterization in the context

Risk communication policy design: Cyprus compared to France and the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tourenq, Sophie; Boustras, George; Gutteling, Jan M.

2017-01-01

This study aims at analyzing differences between risk communication policies in Cyprus, compared to the Netherlands, and France. It analyzes risk communication policies indirectly through a qualitative analysis of the information provided by official websites, which are considered to be proxies of

Prediabetes: a high-risk state for diabetes development.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabák, Adam G; Herder, Christian; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Brunner, Eric J; Kivimäki, Mika

2012-06-16

Prediabetes (intermediate hyperglycaemia) is a high-risk state for diabetes that is defined by glycaemic variables that are higher than normal, but lower than diabetes thresholds. 5-10% of people per year with prediabetes will progress to diabetes, with the same proportion converting back to normoglycaemia. Prevalence of prediabetes is increasing worldwide and experts have projected that more than 470 million people will have prediabetes by 2030. Prediabetes is associated with the simultaneous presence of insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction-abnormalities that start before glucose changes are detectable. Observational evidence shows associations between prediabetes and early forms of nephropathy, chronic kidney disease, small fibre neuropathy, diabetic retinopathy, and increased risk of macrovascular disease. Multifactorial risk scores using non-invasive measures and blood-based metabolic traits, in addition to glycaemic values, could optimise estimation of diabetes risk. For prediabetic individuals, lifestyle modification is the cornerstone of diabetes prevention, with evidence of a 40-70% relative-risk reduction. Accumulating data also show potential benefits from pharmacotherapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

POSSIBLE RISKS OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF A MEMBER STATE FROM THE EUROZONE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silviu-Marius SEITAN

2013-06-01

Full Text Available By taking into consideration the actual difficult macroeconomic situation of some of the Member States of the Euro Zone, as it was already published, as a scenario, about the possibility of the avoiding the member State position, the present paper will propose, as analyzing subjects, the main impact elements on the other European national economies of such producing scenario.The main risks associated of such scenario, even if such process is an administrated one, are the following ones: the depreciation of the Euro as a result of the economic instability perception at the Euro Zone level; the reducing of the European Budget incomes; the reducing of the European Central banks working founds; a very important risk which also have the character of a political risk and which have an important position being a source of complex and difficult European macroeconomic problems and also which could become the precedent thus created towards other member states possible process of avoiding the member state position.

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Risk of Hypertension and Other Chronic Diseases: Comparing Smokeless Tobacco with Smoking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankit Anand

2017-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundIn the past, studies have compared smokeless tobacco and non-tobacco users for the risk of various chronic diseases. The differences in the risk of chronic diseases between smokeless tobacco user and smokers have not been explored. The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of chronic diseases among smokeless tobacco users compared to smokers.MethodsThe data were used from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE Wave-1, conducted in 2007–2008 in India. The study sample is the respondents who reported consuming any form of tobacco in last 1 month. The total sample size was 4,038 respondents. The odds ratio of chronic morbidities was estimated taking smokers as the reference category.ResultsThe odds ratios for (self-reported diabetes, asthma, and hypertension were not significant for smokeless tobacco user compared to smoked tobacco users. The odds ratio of chronic lung diseases (CLDs was significantly lower among smokeless tobacco users compared to smoked tobacco users. The odds ratio of hypertension (measured combined with low education and belonging to lowest wealth quintiles were not significant for smokeless tobacco users compared to smoked tobacco users. Duration of the use of smokeless tobacco and quantity of use was found to have no significant relation with risk of chronic diseases as compared to smoking.ConclusionThis study did not find the significantly higher risk of chronic morbidities except for CLD for smokeless tobacco users compared to smoked tobacco users. The study suggests that the use of any form of tobacco may have a similar risk of chronic diseases.

FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

2013-03-01

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

A proposed methodology for performing risk analysis of state radiation control programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornsife, W.P.

1996-01-01

This paper is comprised of viewgraphs from a conference presentation. Topics discussed include barriers to effective risk assessment and management, and real versus perceived risk for various radiation programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Calculation results for Pennsylvania are provided for low-level radioactive waste transportation risks, indoor radon risk, and cancer morbidity risk from x-rays. A methodology for prioritizing radiation regulatory programs based on risk is presented with calculations for various Pennsylvania programs

Major risks and financial guarantees provided by the State in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brassard, Guy

2012-01-01

France's system for indemnifying damage from natural catastrophe is exemplary, whether for floods, storms, or subsidence. However, France is not equipped with the financial capacity to deal with the damage resulting from an exceptional disaster, such as an earthquake on the Mediterranean coast, or a nuclear meltdown. Major catastrophes could be a significant risk to the financial stability of the State today, because the State is in fact the ultimate insurer of its citizens and its institutions. It would be wise to built up reserves in order to enhance the financial resources of the State and to provide a uniform guarantee covering major risks, whatever the cause of the damage may be. (author)

Impact of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients: A comparative interrupted time series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Murimi, Irene; Faul, Mark; Rutkow, Lainie; Alexander, G Caleb

2018-04-01

We quantified the effects of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients. We used QuintilesIMS LRx Lifelink data to identify patients receiving prescription opioids in Florida (intervention state, N: 1.13 million) and Georgia (control state, N: 0.54 million). The preintervention, intervention, and postintervention periods were July 2010 to June 2011, July 2011 to September 2011, and October 2011 to September 2012. We identified 3 types of high-risk patients: (1) concomitant users: patients with concomitant use of benzodiazepines and opioids; (2) chronic users: long-term, high-dose, opioid users; and (3) opioid shoppers: patients receiving opioids from multiple sources. We compared changes in opioid prescriptions between Florida and Georgia before and after policy implementation among high-risk/low-risk patients. Our monthly measures included (1) average morphine milligram equivalent per transaction, (2) total opioid volume across all prescriptions, (3) average days supplied per transaction, and (4) total number of opioid prescriptions dispensed. Among opioid-receiving individuals in Florida, 6.62% were concomitant users, 1.96% were chronic users, and 0.46% were opioid shoppers. Following policy implementation, Florida's high-risk patients experienced relative reductions in morphine milligram equivalent (opioid shoppers: -1.08 mg/month, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.62 to -0.54), total opioid volume (chronic users: -4.58 kg/month, CI -5.41 to -3.76), and number of dispensed opioid prescriptions (concomitant users: -640 prescriptions/month, CI -950 to -340). Low-risk patients generally did not experience statistically significantly relative reductions. Compared with Georgia, Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law were associated with large relative reductions in prescription opioid utilization among high-risk patients. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

2005-01-01

The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

Incidental Affective State and Financial Risk: Beyond a Valence-Based Approach

OpenAIRE

Galentino Andrea; Bonini Nicolao

2014-01-01

Standard economic models explain decision-making under risk as a methodical utility maximization process. Developments in cognitive psychology and neuroeconomics show the volatility of such conceptualization highlighting human bounded rationality and discussing the role of decision makers' affective state in cognitive evaluations of risk ("risk as feelings"). Affective influences may be elicited by the decision process itself (integral affect) or might be associated with stimuli/events unrela...

Quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising: a comparative study in Australia, Malaysia and the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vitry Agnes I

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Journal advertising is used by pharmaceutical companies to disseminate medicine information to doctors. The quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in Australia and the US has been questioned in several studies. No recent evidence is available on the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in Australia and the US and no Malaysian data have been published. The aim of this study was to compare the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in these three countries. Methods A consecutive sample of 85 unique advertisements from each country was selected from journal advertising published between January 2004 to December 2006. Claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising were compared between the three countries. Results Less than one-third of the claims were unambiguous claims (Australia, 30%, Malaysia 17%, US, 23%. In Malaysia significantly less unambiguous claims were provided than in Australia and the US (P Conclusions The majority of claims were vague suggesting poor quality of claims in journal advertising in these three countries. Evidence from a randomized controlled trial, systematic review or meta- analysis was commonly cited to support claims. However, the more frequent use of data that have not been published and independently reviewed in the US compared to Australia and Malaysia raises questions on the quality of references in the US. The use of relative rather than absolute benefits may overemphasize the benefit of medicines which may leave doctors susceptible to misinterpreting information.

Company performance and reputation risk in state-owned italian listed companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iacopo Cavallini

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The relationship between ownership structure (private vs State-owned and company performance has been deeply analyzed by scholars and practitioners. Prior studies found mixed results about this topic; some scholars demonstrated that private firms perform better than State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs and others came to opposite or undefined results. Further, during the global financial crisis, this topic gained relevance. To our best knowledge, Italian framework suffers of a lack of these studies and, in particular, no ones focused on the level of reputation risk in both SOEs and private firms. Aim of this paper is to analyse the difference in the performance and in the reputation risk between Italian SOEs and private firms. To do so we performed a t-test analysis on a sample of 18 State-owned listed firms and 212 private listed firms. Our empirical results found that SOEs have higher ROE and higher Cash flow/sales, but a lower Tobins’ Q than private firms. Further, no statistically significant differences in the reputation risk have been found; therefore financial analysts do not perceive any difference in the reputation risk between private and SOEs. Our results can help practitioners and policy-makers in making investment decisions and choices about the privatization process

[Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

Science.gov (United States)

Grigor'ev, Iu G

2012-01-01

The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

MetaCompare: A computational pipeline for prioritizing environmental resistome risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Min; Pruden, Amy; Chen, Chaoqi; Heath, Lenwood S; Xia, Kang; Zhang, Liqing

2018-04-26

The spread of antibiotic resistance is a growing public health concern. While numerous studies have highlighted the importance of environmental sources and pathways of the spread of antibiotic resistance, a systematic means of comparing and prioritizing risks represented by various environmental compartments is lacking. Here we introduce MetaCompare, a publicly-available tool for ranking 'resistome risk,' which we define as the potential for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) to be associated with mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and mobilize to pathogens based on metagenomic data. A computational pipeline was developed in which each ARG is evaluated based on relative abundance, mobility, and presence within a pathogen. This is determined through assembly of shotgun sequencing data and analysis of contigs containing ARGs to determine if they contain sequence similarity to MGEs or human pathogens. Based on the assembled metagenomes, samples are projected into a 3-D hazard space and assigned resistome risk scores. To validate, we tested previously published metagenomic data derived from distinct aquatic environments. Based on unsupervised machine learning, the test samples clustered in the hazard space in a manner consistent with their origin. The derived scores produced a well-resolved ascending resistome risk ranking of: wastewater treatment plant effluent, dairy lagoon, hospital sewage.

The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

2016-04-01

A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of Suicidal Events With Atomoxetine Compared to Stimulant Treatment: A Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Linden, Stephan; Bussing, Regina; Kubilis, Paul; Gerhard, Tobias; Segal, Richard; Shuster, Jonathan J; Winterstein, Almut G

2016-05-01

Antidepressant effects on increased suicidality in children have raised public concern in recent years. Approved in 2002 for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder treatment, the selective noradrenalin-reuptake-inhibitor atomoxetine was initially investigated for the treatment of depression. In post-hoc analyses of clinical trial data, atomoxetine has been associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation in children and adolescents. We analyzed whether the observed increased risk of suicidal ideation in clinical trials translates into an increased risk of suicidal events in pediatric patients treated with atomoxetine compared with stimulants in 26 Medicaid programs. Employing a retrospective cohort design, we used propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the risk of suicide and suicide attempt in pediatric patients initiating treatment with atomoxetine compared with stimulants from 2002 to 2006. The first-line treatment cohort included 279 315 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.95 (95% CI 0.47-1.92, P = .88). The second-line treatment cohort included 220 215 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.71 (95% CI 0.30-1.67, P = .43). First- and second-line treatment of youths age 5 to 18 with atomoxetine compared with stimulants was not significantly associated with an increased risk of suicidal events. The low incidence of suicide and suicide attempt resulted in wide confidence intervals and did not allow stratified analysis of high-risk groups or assessment of suicidal risk associated with long-term use of atomoxetine. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

A comparative review of radiation-induced cancer risk models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [Risk and Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies. This review can be used as a basis for developing a Korean cancer risk model in the future.

Assessment of independent risk factors of conversion into psychosis in the ultra-high risk state group of patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Gawłowska

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was the independent psychosis risk factors assessment in a group of subjects fulfilling the criteria of at risk mental state, under specialist outpatient psychiatric care. Participants: Seventy-one patients – 33 women and 38 men, were involved into this study, aged on average 17.34, all under psychiatric care. The patients were recruited into the study in the sequence of their outpatient clinic admission. The criterion to be included into the study was the diagnosis of ultra-high risk state (UHRS – defined according to the Australian research group principles. Subsequently, the patients were divided into subgroups according to the clinical features of their mental state. Method: The author’s demographic questionnaire was applied in the study. Information regarding the family history of psychosis was obtained from patients and/or their relatives or carers. The patients’ mental state was assessed monthly – according to the presence of psychotic symptoms, change of their incidence and duration, presence of depressive symptoms or aggressive behaviour (measured by a three-level scale. On the basis of the obtained information, we evaluated: 1 conversion into psychosis time – measured from diagnosing of UHRS to the development of full-symptom psychosis, 2 therapeutic methods used (psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy or both, 3 use of psychoactive substances after being diagnosed with UHRS, 4 presence of serious life stressors (the patients’ subjective estimation – during the six-month period preceding the conversion into psychosis. Results: 1 In the UHRS group of patients, staying under professional outpatient psychiatric care, the use of marijuana was an independent risk factor of conversion into psychosis. 2 In the investigated group of patients with at risk mental state we did not find any correlation between modulating factors (including: therapeutic methods used, depressive symptoms, aggression or

Risk of iron overload is decreased in beating heart coronary artery surgery compared to conventional bypass.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumby, S; Koh, T W; Pepper, J R; Gutteridge, J M

2001-11-29

Conventional cardiopulmonary bypass surgery (CCPB) increases the iron loading of plasma transferrin often to a state of plasma iron overload, with the presence of low molecular mass iron. Such iron is a potential risk factor for oxidative stress and microbial virulence. Here we assess 'off-pump' coronary artery surgery on the beating heart for changes in plasma iron chemistry. Seventeen patients undergoing cardiac surgery using the 'Octopus' myocardial wall stabilisation device were monitored at five time points for changes in plasma iron chemistry. This group was further divided into those (n=9) who had one- or two- (n=8) vessel grafts, and compared with eight patients undergoing conventional coronary artery surgery. Patients undergoing beating heart surgery had significantly lower levels of total plasma non-haem iron, and a decreased percentage saturation of their transferrin at all time points compared to conventional bypass patients. Plasma iron overload occurred in only one patient undergoing CCPB. Beating heart surgery appears to decrease red blood cell haemolysis, and tissue damage during the operative procedures and thereby significantly decreases the risk of plasma iron overload associated with conventional bypass.

Geographical information system and predictive risk maps of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solarin Adewale RT

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The control of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria remains inert due to lack of reliable data on the geographical distribution of the disease and the population at risk. To help in developing a control programme, delineating areas of risk, geographical information system and remotely sensed environmental images were used to developed predictive risk maps of the probability of occurrence of the disease and quantify the risk for infection in Ogun State, Nigeria. Methods Infection data used were derived from carefully validated morbidity questionnaires among primary school children in 2001–2002, in which school children were asked among other questions if they have experienced "blood in urine" or urinary schistosomiasis. The infection data from 1,092 schools together with remotely sensed environmental data such as rainfall, vegetation, temperature, soil-types, altitude and land cover were analysis using binary logistic regression models to identify environmental features that influence the spatial distribution of the disease. The final regression equations were then used in Arc View 3.2a GIS software to generate predictive risk maps of the distribution of the disease and population at risk in the state. Results Logistic regression analysis shows that the only significant environmental variable in predicting the presence and absence of urinary schistosomiasis in any area of the State was Land Surface Temperature (LST (B = 0.308, p = 0.013. While LST (B = -0.478, p = 0.035, rainfall (B = -0.006, p = 0.0005, ferric luvisols (B = 0.539, p = 0.274, dystric nitosols (B = 0.133, p = 0.769 and pellic vertisols (B = 1.386, p = 0.008 soils types were the final variables in the model for predicting the probability of an area having an infection prevalence equivalent to or more than 50%. The two predictive risk maps suggest that urinary schistosomiasis is widely distributed and occurring in all the Local Government Areas (LGAs

Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

2015-01-01

textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

Comparative risk assessment for electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoene, E.; Kallenbach, U.

1988-01-01

The following conclusions are drawn: There is no 'zero-risk option' in electricity generation. Risk comparison meets with considerable problems relating to available data and methods. Taking into account the existing uncertainties, technology ranking in terms of risks involved cannot be done, but the major risk elements of the various electricity generating systems can be clearly identified. The risks defined cannot be interpreted so as to lead to an abolishment of certain techniques due to risks involved, particularly if one sees the risks from electricity generation in relation to other health hazards. The use of coal for electricity generation clearly ranks top with regard to occupational risks and hazards to public health. (orig./HP) [de

Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oosthuizen, A.V.

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

Industrial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1981-01-01

A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive material within the state of Idaho

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng, C.; Oberg, S.G.; Downs, J.L.

1996-01-01

The State of Idaho and the U.S. DOE have agreed to a one year pilot program to review and analyze DOE's off-site transportation of radioactive materials within Idaho on a shipping-campaign basis. As a part of that effort, the State of Idaho INEL Oversight Program conducts independent transportation risk assessments. These risk assessments are performed for both highway and railroad shipments using the computer codes RADTRAN4 ,and RISKIND 1.11. Some input parameters are customized with. Idaho-specific data, such as population density, accident rates and meteorological data. The dose and risk (to the public, handlers, crew, etc.) are estimated for both incident free and accident scenarios. Source term files are being built for past, current, and future shipments in Idaho. These include transuranic waste. shipments to WIPP, low level waste, mixed waste, spent fuel, and high level waste. Each shipment is analyzed for two types of transportation route segments: county segments and ten-mile segments. Risk estimation for each county segment provides information for allocation of emergency preparedness resources. Risk estimation for each ten-mile segment helps to identify higher risk segments. The dose and risk results are presented in appropriate formats for various audiences. The quantitative risk measures are used to guide appropriate levels of emergency preparedness. GIS tools are being used to graphically present risk information to elected officials and to the general public

Trends and Characteristics of United States Out-of-Hospital Births 2004-2014: New Information on Risk Status and Access to Care.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDorman, Marian F; Declercq, Eugene

2016-06-01

Out-of-hospital births are increasing in the United States. Our purpose was to examine trends in out-of-hospital births from 2004 to 2014, and to analyze newly available data on risk status and access to care. Newly available data from the revised birth certificate for 47 states and Washington, DC, were used to examine out-of-hospital births by characteristics and to compare them with hospital births. Trends from 2004 to 2014 were also examined. Out-of-hospital births increased by 72 percent, from 0.87 percent of United States births in 2004 to 1.50 percent in 2014. Compared with mothers who had hospital births, those with out-of-hospital births had lower prepregnancy obesity (12.5% vs 25.0%) and smoking (2.8% vs 8.5%) rates, and higher college graduation (39.3% vs 30.0%) and breastfeeding initiation (94.3% vs 80.8%) rates. Among planned home births, 67.1 percent were self-paid, compared with 31.9 percent of birth center and 3.4 percent of hospital births. Vaginal births after cesarean (VBACs) comprised 4.6 percent of planned home births and 1.6 percent of hospital and birth center births. Sociodemographic and medical risk status of out-of-hospital births improved substantially from 2004 to 2014. Improvements in risk status of out-of-hospital births from 2004 to 2014 suggest that appropriate selection of low-risk women is improving. High rates of self-pay for the costs of out-of-hospital birth suggest serious gaps in insurance coverage, whereas higher-than-average rates of VBAC could reflect lack of access to hospital VBACs. Mandating private insurance and Medicaid coverage could substantially improve access to out-of-hospital births. Improving access to hospital VBACs might reduce the number of out-of-hospital VBACs. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising: a comparative study in Australia, Malaysia and the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Othman, Noordin; Vitry, Agnes I; Roughead, Elizabeth E

2010-05-29

Journal advertising is used by pharmaceutical companies to disseminate medicine information to doctors. The quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in Australia and the US has been questioned in several studies. No recent evidence is available on the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in Australia and the US and no Malaysian data have been published. The aim of this study was to compare the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in these three countries. A consecutive sample of 85 unique advertisements from each country was selected from journal advertising published between January 2004 to December 2006. Claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising were compared between the three countries. Less than one-third of the claims were unambiguous claims (Australia, 30%, Malaysia 17%, US, 23%). In Malaysia significantly less unambiguous claims were provided than in Australia and the US (P review or meta-analysis (Australia, 84%, Malaysia, 81%, US, 76%) with journal articles being the most commonly cited references in all countries. Data on file were significantly more likely to be cited in the US (17%) than in Australia (2%) and Malaysia (4%) (P countries. Evidence from a randomized controlled trial, systematic review or meta- analysis was commonly cited to support claims. However, the more frequent use of data that have not been published and independently reviewed in the US compared to Australia and Malaysia raises questions on the quality of references in the US. The use of relative rather than absolute benefits may overemphasize the benefit of medicines which may leave doctors susceptible to misinterpreting information.

Improving the Way State and Federal Co-Regulators Communicate about Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easton, E.; Janairo, L.R.

2009-01-01

This paper explores risk communications concepts that could be used by Federal and state governments to help the public understand how government officials rely on risk analysis and management to ensure that shipments of spent fuel and other radioactive wastes take place in a safe, secure manner that merits public confidence. A key focus in the communication concepts put forward in the paper is the relationship between understanding and validating the public's concerns and explaining how those concerns are being addressed by current safety requirements and practices. The authors will recommend best practices to state and Federal officials that have the responsibility for communicating with the public about radioactive waste transportation. The paper will also suggest ways to bring these state and federal co-regulators together to communicate more effectively and to speak with one voice on the issue of shipment safety. (authors)

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI: A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliano Calil

Full Text Available As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI, contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only

Adult mortality attributable to preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan: a comparative risk assessment.

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Nayu Ikeda

2012-01-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000-154,000 and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000-119,000, respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000-58,000, high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000-43,000, high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000-39,000, and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000-35,000. In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3-1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7 if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. CONCLUSIONS

Radiation polluton and cancer: comparative risks and proof

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, B.L.

1982-01-01

A case study of the comparative risks from nuclear radiation and coal burning is presented for a given level of energy production. Mr. Cohen indicates results that might be realized under judicial reforms. Cohen notes the typical overstatement of health hazards from low-level radiation, when current risk assessment methodology derives it from high-level radiation statistics. However, he sees public attention focused on the danger of even low-level radiation brought about by radioactive waste disposal uncertainties. Cohen accuses the information media of generating bad news even when facts point in the opposite direction. He offers as an example, a rationale for the Best-Collins proposal to adjudicate pollution engendered torts under the guidance of reputable authorities rather than impressionable juries guided by proximate case. The paper ends with the question, How can the ajudication system be reformed, given such perverse incentives

Risk of Gastrointestinal Bleeding with Rivaroxaban: A Comparative Study with Warfarin

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Muhammed Sherid

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The risk of gastrointestinal (GI bleeding with rivaroxaban has not been studied extensively. The aim of our study was to assess this risk in comparison to warfarin. Methods. We examined the medical records for patients who were started on rivaroxaban or warfarin from April 2011 to April 2013. Results. We identified 300 patients (147 on rivaroxaban versus 153 on warfarin. GI bleeding occurred in 4.8% patients with rivaroxaban when compared to 9.8% patients in warfarin group (p=0.094. GI bleeding occurred in 8% with therapeutic doses of rivaroxaban (>10 mg/d compared to 9.8% with warfarin (p=0.65. Multivariate analysis showed that patients who were on rivaroxaban for ≤40 days had a higher incidence of GI bleeding than those who were on it for >40 days (OR = 2.8, p=0.023. Concomitant use of dual antiplatelet agents was associated with increased risk of GI bleeding in the rivaroxaban group (OR = 7.4, p=0.0378. Prior GI bleeding was also a risk factor for GI bleeding in rivaroxaban group (OR = 15.5. Conclusion. The incidence of GI bleeding was similar between rivaroxaban and warfarin. The risk factors for GI bleeding with rivaroxaban were the first 40 days of taking the drug, concomitant dual antiplatelet agents, and prior GI bleeding.

A comparative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in prepackaged versus retail-sliced deli meat.

Science.gov (United States)

Endrikat, Sarah; Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hicks Quesenberry, Heather; Labarre, David; Schroeder, Carl M; Kause, Janell

2010-04-01

Deli meat was ranked as the highest-risk ready-to-eat food vehicle of Listeria monocytogenes within the 2003 U.S. Food and Drug Administration and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service risk assessment. The comparative risk of L. monocytogenes in retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was evaluated with a modified version of this model. Other research has found that retail-sliced deli meats have both higher prevalence and levels of L. monocytogenes than have product sliced and packaged at the manufacturer level. The updated risk assessment model considered slicing location as well as the use of growth inhibitors. The per annum comparative risk ratio for the number of deaths from retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was found to be 4.89, and the per-serving comparative risk ratio was 4.27. There was a significant interaction between the use of growth inhibitors and slicing location. Almost 70% of the estimated deaths occurred from retail-sliced product that did not possess a growth inhibitor. A sensitivity analysis, assessing the effect of the model's consumer storage time and shelf life assumptions, found that even if retail-sliced deli meats were stored for a quarter of the time prepackaged deli meats were stored, retail-sliced product is 1.7 times more likely to result in death from listeriosis. Sensitivity analysis also showed that the shelf life assumption had little effect on the comparative risk ratio.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

2017-01-01

surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs......), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR......) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated...

Prevalence of bluetongue virus antibodies and associated risk factors among cattle in East Darfur State, Western Sudan.

Science.gov (United States)

Khair, Hadia Om; Adam, Ibrahim A; Bushara, Shakir B; Eltom, Kamal H; Musa, Nasreen O; Aradaib, Imadeldin E

2014-02-07

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an insect-transmitted virus, which causes bluetongue disease (BT) in sheep and a fatal hemorrhagic infection in North American white-tailed deer. However, in cattle the disease is typically asymptomatic and no overt clinical signs of disease appear to be associated with BTV infection. Serological evidence and isolation of different BTV serotypes have been reported in Sudan, however, no information is currently available in regard to previous exposure of Sudanese livestock to BTV infection in East Darfur State, Sudan. To determine the prevalence of BTV antibodies and to identify the potential risk factors associated with BTV infection among cattle in East Darfur State, Sudan. A total of 224 blood samples were collected randomly from five localities in East Darfur State, Sudan. The serum samples were screened for detection of BTV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA). Serological evidence of BTV infection was observed in 150 out of 224 animals accounting for a 67% prevalence rate among cattle in East Darfur State. Older cattle (>2 years of age) were six times more likely to be infected with BTV (OR = 6.62, CI = 2.87-15.26, p-value = 0.01). Regarding animal source (contact with other herds) as a risk factor, it was shown that cattle purchased from market or introduced from other herds were 3 times at higher risk of being infected with BTV (OR = 3.87, CI = 1.07-13.87, p value = 0.03). Exposure of cattle to the insect vector increased the risk of contracting BTV infection by six times compared to non-exposed cattle (OR = 6.44, CI = 1.53-27.08, p value = 0.01). The present study indicated that age, animal source and the intensity of the insect vector are influential risk factors for BTV infection in cattle in the Darfur region. Surveillance for BTV infection should be extended to include other susceptible ruminants and to study the distribution of the insect vectors to better

Economic risks of the system of state and municipal procurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belokrylova Olga, S.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the paper the audit of economic risks at all stages of procurement for state and municipal needs from both customers and bidders is carried out on the basis of the implementation of the integrated approach . Stages in the procurement under a single contract system, which is characterized by the high economic risks are planning, supplier selection, conclusion and execution of the contract. A number of the measures according to the localization of economic risks are offered, in particular the implementation of compliance programs, which institutionalize the compliance by the organization, anti-corruption legislation; increasing qualification of specialists in public procurement and increased control through centralization of procurement.

STATE-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ADVANTAGES AND RISKS

OpenAIRE

S.A. Neganov; L.I. Polizhyk

2008-01-01

In paper the problem of state and business interaction in main national projects realization is described. Advantages and risks are shown. To raise efficiency of partnership it is offered to optimize a perfection of a legal regime, society’s participation in discussion of the projects and the controlling over their performance.

A comparative study of the perceptions of nuclear and environmental risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boemer, Veronica Araujo

2011-01-01

With the necessity for new forms of energy production to contain the environmental crisis and the global warming, new technologies have been studied and the nuclear energy has been placed as one of the ways out for clean energy production. The study of the risk is directly related to the study of its perception, that determines the human being's actions, therefore it influences in new technologies applications, since the awareness of something as dangerous is determined by socio-historical factors. The purpose of this study was compare the perceptions of nuclear and environmental risks, considering a group of university students, with the application of research in the period from March 31 to May 31, 2010, containing: images of historical facts to be nominated; structuring of a risk scale for certain activities, and a questionnaire about risks and benefits related to the subject research. The analysis of results evidenced a reduction in the perception of nuclear risk over the perception of environmental risk in this population. (author)

Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iain Brown

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

1995-10-01

This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

1995-10-01

This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

Comparative Study of Teenage Pregnancy in Lagos State University ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... a comparative study of the obstetric performance of primiparous teenagers and ... 2006-31st December, 2007) in Lagos State University Teaching Hospital,Ikeja. ... The incidence of teenage pregnancy in the study population was 1.01% with ...

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

Science.gov (United States)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

Comparative Pessimism or Optimism: Depressed Mood, Risk-Taking, Social Utility and Desirability.

Science.gov (United States)

Milhabet, Isabelle; Le Barbenchon, Emmanuelle; Cambon, Laurent; Molina, Guylaine

2015-03-05

Comparative optimism can be defined as a self-serving, asymmetric judgment of the future. It is often thought to be beneficial and socially accepted, whereas comparative pessimism is correlated with depression and socially rejected. Our goal was to examine the social acceptance of comparative optimism and the social rejection of comparative pessimism in two dimensions of social judgment, social desirability and social utility, considering the attributions of dysphoria and risk-taking potential (studies 2 and 3) on outlooks on the future. In three experiments, the participants assessed either one (study 1) or several (studies 2 and 3) fictional targets in two dimensions, social utility and social desirability. Targets exhibiting comparatively optimistic or pessimistic outlooks on the future were presented as non-depressed, depressed, or neither (control condition) (study 1); non-depressed or depressed (study 2); and non-depressed or in control condition (study 3). Two significant results were obtained: (1) social rejection of comparative pessimism in the social desirability dimension, which can be explained by its depressive feature; and (2) comparative optimism was socially accepted on the social utility dimension, which can be explained by the perception that comparatively optimistic individuals are potential risk-takers.

DEPENDENCE OF COUNTRY RISK COMPARED TO THE FOREIGN DEBT LEVEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents some of the fundamental aspects of country risk’dependence compared to foreign debt level. Starting from external debt burden we analyze the usage of foreign loans, foreign debt bearing capacity as well as the availability of data regarding the external debt. Country risk represents the exposure to losses which may occur in a business with a foreign partner, caused by specific events that are, at least partially, controlled by the partner country’ government. Macroeconomic analysis of economic and financial component of country risk involves how this risk is influenced by government policy, by the economic role of government, bypricing strategies, investment priorities, financial structures, macroeconomic policy, by the ability to obtain foreign funds, the level of external debt as well as the liquidity and cash flows in that country.

The risk of disciplinary action by state medical boards against physicians prescribing opioids.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard, Jack; Reidenberg, Marcus M

2005-02-01

Concern of physicians about being disciplined for prescribing opioids for patients in pain is one cause for undertreatment of pain. This study was done to assess the actual risk of being disciplined by state medical boards. A review of records of actions by the New York State Board for Professional Medical Misconduct for 3 years and of all medical boards in the United States for 9 months was done to determine this risk. New York State, with 7.8% of U.S. physicians, had 10 physicians disciplined annually related to overprescribing opioids, while the total for the entire U.S. was 120 physicians annually. Most physicians disciplined had multiple violations in addition to overprescribing controlled substances. In the national sample, 43% were prescribing for themselves or for nonpatients, 12% prescribed for addicts without addressing the patients' problems of addiction, 42% had inadequate records, 19% prescribed without indication for opioids, 13% were incompetent in additional ways, and 8% were having sexual activity with patients. Not a single physician, for whom information was available, was disciplined solely for overprescribing opioids. The actual risk of an American physician being disciplined by a state medical board for treating a real patient with opioids for a painful medical condition is virtually nonexistent.

Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

R.D. Magarey; D.M. Borchert; J.S. Engle; M Garcia-Colunga; Frank H. Koch; et al

2011-01-01

In the United States, pest risk maps are used by the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey for spatial and temporal targeting of exotic plant pest detection programs. Methods are described to create standardized host distribution, climate and pathway risk maps for the top nationally ranked exotic pest targets. Two examples are provided to illustrate the risk mapping...

No increased risk of developing depression in diabetes compared to other chronic illness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kessing, Lars Vedel; Nilsson, Flemming Mørkeberg; Siersma, Volkert

2003-01-01

of patients. There was no difference in the risk for Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. It is concluded that older patients with diabetes do not seem to have an increased risk of developing severe depression compared with patients with other chronic illness.......Several studies have found that the prevalence of depression in patients with diabetes is higher than in the general population but it is unclear whether patients with diabetes have an increased risk of developing depression compared with patients with other chronic illnesses. In a nationwide case...... register study, all patients who had a discharge diagnosis of diabetes or of osteoarthritis at first admission in a period from 1977 to 1997 were identified. The probability of being readmitted and discharged with a diagnosis of depression was estimated with competing risks models in survival analysis...

An Examination of Farmworker Pesticide Educators in a Southeastern State: Informal Science Educators and Risk Communication

Science.gov (United States)

LePrevost, Catherine E.

2011-12-01

agricultural labor force, and the general public. A second mixed-method, multi-case study investigated 19 farmworker pesticide educators from four types of institutions in this southeastern state. A quantitative questionnaire and semi-structured interviews were employed to explore teaching beliefs, pesticide risk beliefs, and self-efficacy beliefs of these informal science educators. Teaching beliefs of pesticide educators ranged from traditional to reform-based, with most being transitional (i.e., focused on educator/farmworker relationships). Findings indicate that these pesticide educators have expert-like beliefs about pesticide risk. A positive correlation (r = 0.455, p = 0.0578) existed between concern about adverse health outcomes associated with pesticides and student-centered teaching beliefs. Self-efficacy scores ranged from low to moderate, lower than is typically found in science teachers. Findings suggest an inverse relationship (r = -0.468, p = 0.0503) between self-efficacy and farmworker-focused beliefs about teaching. Patterns of beliefs were apparent for teaching, pesticide risk, and self-efficacy by institutional affiliation and number of training sessions provided. Study results have direct implications for modifications to teacher belief constructs and pesticide educator professional development. The third mixed methods study examines the state of pesticide education from an organizational perspective by comparing pesticide educators' (n=45) personal goals to those of their institutions and examining the factors that shape educators' teaching practices. Findings indicate that individuals from all institutions share goals to reduce exposure and ensure safety and health for farmworkers, regardless of the missions of their organizations. Pesticide educators described time, farmworker basic needs, the physical setting, institutional missions, and training and curricular materials as shaping their teaching practices and restricting their goal attainment. This

A quantitative and comparative evaluation of the risks from nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vignes, S.; Bertin, M.; Nenot, J.C.

1980-01-01

All the significant data for the assessment of risks from the operation of nuclear power plants was collected and these risks were compared with all the risks of modern life. The scientific bases for the evaluation of individual risks and detriment were defined by UNSCEAR (1977) and by ICRP 26 (1978). In different industries, the risk of death from long term occupational illness is about 130 to 14,000 per million workers. For accidental deaths, the risk is estimated at about 16 to 1,600. The risk for the nuclear industry is lower than 100 per million workers. Comparisons are made with different causes of lethality: deaths from atmospheric pollution (sulfur compounds and dusts) related to fossile fuel combustion; iatrogenic accidents attributed to some drugs used in medicine or to other kind of treatment; calculated mortality for workers exposed to asestosis. The nuclear industr of the safest. The only risk to be considered is the major accident, the probability of which is very low. (H.K.)

The risk of upcoding in casemix systems: a comparative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinbusch, Paul J M; Oostenbrink, Jan B; Zuurbier, Joost J; Schaepkens, Frans J M

2007-05-01

With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the total number of improper Medicare payments for the Prospective Payment system for acute inpatient care (both short term and long term) amounted to US$ 4.8 billion (5.2%). By comparing the casemix systems in the US, Australian and Dutch healthcare systems, this article illustrates why certain casemix systems are more open to the risk of upcoding than other systems. This study identifies various market, control and casemix characteristics determining the weaknesses of a casemix reimbursement system to upcoding. It can be concluded that fewer opportunities for upcoding occur in casemix systems that do not allow for-profit ownership and in which the coder's salary does not depend on the outcome of the classification process. In addition, casemix systems in which the first point in time of registration is at the beginning of the care process and in which there are a limited number of occasions to alter the registration are less vulnerable to the risk of upcoding. Finally, the risk of upcoding is smaller in casemix systems that use classification criteria that are medically meaningful and aligned with clinical practice. Comparing the US, Australian and Dutch systems the following conclusions can be drawn. Given the combined occurrences of for-profit hospitals and the use of the secondary diagnosis criterion to classify DRGs, the US casemix system tends to be more open to upcoding than the Australian system. The strength of the Dutch system is related to the detailed classification scheme, using medically meaningful classification criteria. Nevertheless, the detailed classification scheme also causes a weakness, because of its increased complexity compared with the US and

Radiation effects, nuclear energy and comparative risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopinath, D.V.

2007-01-01

Nuclear energy had a promising start as an unlimited, inexpensive and environmentally benign source of energy for electricity generation. However, over the decades its growth was severely retarded due to concerns about its possible detrimental effects on the well-being of mankind and the environment. Since such concerns are essentially due to the gigantic magnitude of radioactivity and ionizing radiations associated with nuclear energy, this article starts with a comprehensive account of effects of the ionizing radiation on living systems. Quantitative description of types of radiation exposure and their varied effects is given. The origin, type and magnitude of mutagenic effects of radiation are described. The concept of radiation risk factors, basis for their evaluation and their currently accepted values are presented. With this background, origin and magnitude of radioactivity and associated ionizing radiations in nuclear reactors are presented and the elaborate measures to contain them are described. It is recognized that notwithstanding all the measures taken in the nuclear industry, certain amount of radiation exposure, however small, is inevitable and the values, based on the experience world over, are presented. Estimated health risk due to such exposures is evaluated. For a comparative analysis, risks in other options of electricity generation such as hydel and fossil-fuelled plants are described. It is seen that on an overall basis, the nuclear option is no more risky than the other commonly employed options, and is in fact, significantly less. Lastly, since every option of electricity generation entails some risk, the case of 'no addition of electricity, and its impact on the society are considered. Based on the analysis of extensive data provided by UNDP on the human development parameters for different countries in the world, it is shown that at least for developing countries, any option of addition of electricity would be far more desirable than the

Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

2016-03-29

Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

State-of-the-art risk-based approach to spill contingency planning and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt Etkin, Dagmar; Reilly, Timothy; French McCay, Deborah

2011-01-01

The paper proposes incorporating a comprehensive examination of spill risk into risk management and contingency planning, and applying state-of-the-art modeling tools to evaluate various alternatives for appropriate spill response measures and optimize protective responses. The approach allows spill contingency planners and decision-makers to determine the types of spill scenarios that may occur in a particular location or from a particular source and calculate the probability distribution of the various scenarios. The spill probability information is useful in assessing and putting into perspective the various costs options for spill control systems that will be recommended ultimately. Using advanced modeling tools helps in estimating the potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of each spill scenario based on location-specific factors over a range of stochastic possibilities, simulating spill scenarios and determining optimal responses and protection strategies. The benefits and costs of various response alternatives and variations in response time can be calculated and modeling tools for training and risk allocation/transfer purposes used.

A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

Risk of oral tongue cancer among immunocompromised transplant recipients and human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Tota, Joseph E; Engels, Eric A; Madeleine, Margaret M; Clarke, Christina A; Lynch, Charles F; Ortiz, Ana P; Hernandez, Brenda Y; Chaturvedi, Anil K

2018-04-12

Oral tongue cancer incidence has increased among whites in the United States; however, the cause remains unknown. If an infectious agent is implicated, then elevated risk would be expected among immunosuppressed individuals. By using population-based registry linkage information from the US Transplant Cancer Match and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) Cancer Match studies, the authors examined the risk of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among immunocompromised transplantation recipients and HIV-infected individuals. In addition, the risks of oropharyngeal SCC (strongly related to human papillomavirus infection; modestly affected by immunosuppression), other tobacco/alcohol-related oral cavity SCCs (not thought to be infection/immunosuppression-related), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma of oral cavity/pharynx (strongly related to Epstein-Barr virus; profoundly affected by immunosuppression) were evaluated. Compared with the general population, the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was strongly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] > 8.0). The risk of all SCCs was modestly and similarly elevated among transplantation recipients (SIR range, 2.2-2.7; P heterogeneity  = .2); whereas, among HIV-infected individuals, the risk of oral tongue SCC was higher compared with the risk of other SCCs (SIR, 3.0 vs 1.7 [for oropharyngeal SCCs] and 2.3 [for other oral cavity SCCs]; P heterogeneity  risk of SCCs was significantly higher among men, older individuals, and whites; and risk increased with the time since transplantation/AIDS onset. The risk of oral tongue SCC was significantly higher among HIV-infected men who have sex with men compared with the average risk in HIV-infected individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0). Similar modest increases in the risk of oral tongue and other oral cavity SCCs do not suggest that an infectious agent or exposure profoundly affected by immunosuppression underlies the

Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development for small island developing states

OpenAIRE

Shultz, James M.; Cohen, Madeline A.; Hermosilla, Sabrina; Espinel, Zelde; McLean, Andrew

2016-01-01

In contrast to continental nations, the world's 52 small island developing states (SIDS) are recognized as a collective of countries that experience disproportionate challenges for sustainable development related to their geography, small size, and physical isolation. These same states also face elevated risks for disaster incidence and consequences particularly in the realms of climate change, sea level rise, natural disasters (tropical cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes), and marine...

What is clearance worth? Patients' stated risk tolerance for psoriasis treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Fairchild, Angelyn O; Reed, Shelby D; Johnson, F Reed; Anglin, Greg; Wolka, Anne M; Noel, Rebecca A

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to provide quantitative evidence of patients' tolerance for therapeutic risks associated with psoriasis treatments that could offer psoriasis improvements beyond the PASI 75 benchmark. We used a discrete-choice experiment in which respondents chose between competing psoriasis treatments characterized by benefits (i.e. reduced plaque severity, reduced plaque area), risks (i.e. 10-year risk of tuberculosis, 10-year risk of death from infection), and treatment regimen. We analyzed choice data using random-parameters logit models for psoriasis affecting the body, face, or hands. Of 927 eligible members of the National Psoriasis Foundation who completed the survey, 28% were unwilling to accept any greater risk of treatment-related infection mortality. Among the remaining 72%, respondents were willing to accept higher risks of infection-related mortality associated with treatment to completely remove plaques covering only 1% of the body, compared to reducing lesions from 10 to 1% of the affected area. This finding was more pronounced for lesions on the face. Most patients placed greater value on eliminating even very small plaques compared to avoiding treatment-related risks. The perceived importance of complete versus near-complete clearance was stronger than previously documented.

Politics of risk-taking: Welfare state reform in advanced democracies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vis, B.

2010-01-01

How much and in which direction have the welfare states among the Western democracies changed over the past decades? Moreover, under which conditions have governments enacted these changes? Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, Vis demonstrates ably

Hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes compared: stroke severity, mortality, and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Kammersgaard, Lars Peter

2009-06-01

Stroke patients with hemorrhagic (HS) and ischemic strokes were compared with regard to stroke severity, mortality, and cardiovascular risk factors. A registry started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, now holds information for 39,484 patients. The patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity (Scandinavian Stroke Scale), CT, and cardiovascular risk factors. They were followed-up from admission until death or censoring in 2007. Independent predictors of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 25,123 individuals with a complete data set. Of the patients 3993 (10.1%) had HS. Stroke severity was almost linearly related to the probability of having HS (2% in patients with the mildest stroke and 30% in those with the most severe strokes). Factors favoring ischemic strokes vs HS were diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and intermittent arterial claudication. Smoking and alcohol consumption favored HS, whereas age, sex, and hypertension did not herald stroke type. Compared with ischemic strokes, HS was associated with an overall higher mortality risk (HR, 1.564; 95% CI, 1.441-1.696). The increased risk was, however, time-dependent; initially, risk was 4-fold, after 1 week it was 2.5-fold, and after 3 weeks it was 1.5-fold. After 3 months stroke type did not correlate to mortality. Strokes are generally more severe in patients with HS. Within the first 3 months after stroke, HS is associated with a considerable increase of mortality, which is specifically associated with the hemorrhagic nature of the lesion.

Oximeter-based autonomic state indicator algorithm for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Grote, Ludger; Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Eder, Derek N; Hedner, Jan

2011-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment is important in clinical practice. An autonomic state indicator (ASI) algorithm based on pulse oximetry was developed and validated for CV risk assessment. One hundred forty-eight sleep clinic patients (98 men, mean age 50 ± 13 years) underwent an overnight study using a novel photoplethysmographic sensor. CV risk was classified according to the European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology (ESH/ESC) risk factor matrix. Five signal components reflecting cardiac and vascular activity (pulse wave attenuation, pulse rate acceleration, pulse propagation time, respiration-related pulse oscillation, and oxygen desaturation) extracted from 99 randomly selected subjects were used to train the classification algorithm. The capacity of the algorithm for CV risk prediction was validated in 49 additional patients. Each signal component contributed independently to CV risk prediction. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to distinguish high/low CV risk in the validation group were 80% and 77%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for high CV risk classification was 0.84. β-Blocker treatment was identified as an important factor for classification that was not in line with the ESH/ESC reference matrix. Signals derived from overnight oximetry recording provide a novel potential tool for CV risk classification. Prospective studies are warranted to establish the value of the ASI algorithm for prediction of outcome in CV disease.

Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

2012-07-01

This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Potakhin S.N.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

Application of a geographical information system approach for risk analysis of fascioliasis in southern Espírito Santo state, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Isabella Vilhena Freire; de Avelar, Barbara Rauta; Pereira, Maria Julia Salim; da Fonseca, Adevair Henrique

2012-09-01

A model based on geographical information systems for mapping the risk of fascioliasis was developed for the southern part of Espírito Santo state, Brazil. The determinants investigated were precipitation, temperature, elevation, slope, soil type and land use. Weightings and grades were assigned to determinants and their categories according to their relevance with respect to fascioliasis. Theme maps depicting the spatial distribution of risk areas indicate that over 50% of southern Espírito Santo is either at high or at very high risk for fascioliasis. These areas were found to be characterized by comparatively high temperature but relatively low slope, low precipitation and low elevation corresponding to periodically flooded grasslands or soils that promote water retention.

Phytotoxic risk assessment of ambient air pollution on agricultural crops in Selangor State, Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishii, S.; Bell, J.N.B.; Marshall, F.M.

2007-01-01

The phytotoxic risk of ambient air pollution to local vegetation was assessed in Selangor State, Malaysia. The AOT40 value was calculated by means of the continuously monitored daily maximum concentration and the local diurnal pattern of O 3 . Together with minor risks associated with the levels of NO 2 and SO 2 , the study found that the monthly AOT40 values in these peri-urban sites were consistently over 1.0 ppm.h, which is well in exceedance of the given European critical level. Linking the O 3 level to actual agricultural crop production in Selangor State also indicated that the extent of yield losses could have ranged from 1.6 to 5.0% (by weight) in 2000. Despite a number of uncertainties, the study showed a simple but useful methodological framework for phytotoxic risk assessment with a limited data set, which could contribute to appropriate policy discussion and countermeasures in countries under similar conditions. - There is a large potential of phytotoxic risk on vegetation in Selangor State, Malaysia

Risk of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding and associated costs in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients who initiated apixaban, dabigatran or rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in the United States Medicare population.

Science.gov (United States)

Amin, Alpesh; Keshishian, Allison; Trocio, Jeffrey; Dina, Oluwaseyi; Le, Hannah; Rosenblatt, Lisa; Liu, Xianchen; Mardekian, Jack; Zhang, Qisu; Baser, Onur; Vo, Lien

2017-09-01

To compare the risk and cost of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding between each direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) and warfarin among non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients. Patients (≥65 years) initiating warfarin or DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran) were selected from the Medicare database from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2014. Patients initiating each DOAC were matched 1:1 to warfarin patients using propensity score matching to balance demographics and clinical characteristics. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risks of stroke/SE and major bleeding of each DOAC vs. warfarin. Two-part models were used to compare the stroke/SE- and major-bleeding-related medical costs between matched cohorts. Of the 186,132 eligible patients, 20,803 apixaban-warfarin pairs, 52,476 rivaroxaban-warfarin pairs, and 16,731 dabigatran-warfarin pairs were matched. Apixaban (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31, 0.53) and rivaroxaban (HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.63, 0.83) were significantly associated with lower risk of stroke/SE compared to warfarin. Apixaban (HR = 0.51; 95% CI 0.44, 0.58) and dabigatran (HR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.69, 0.91) were significantly associated with lower risk of major bleeding; rivaroxaban (HR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.10, 1.26) was significantly associated with higher risk of major bleeding compared to warfarin. Compared to warfarin, apixaban ($63 vs. $131) and rivaroxaban ($93 vs. $139) had significantly lower stroke/SE-related medical costs; apixaban ($292 vs. $529) and dabigatran ($369 vs. $450) had significantly lower major bleeding-related medical costs. Among the DOACs in the study, only apixaban is associated with a significantly lower risk of stroke/SE and major bleeding and lower related medical costs compared to warfarin.

Comparative study of state-of-the-art myoelectric controllers for multigrasp prosthetic hands.

Science.gov (United States)

Segil, Jacob L; Controzzi, Marco; Weir, Richard F ff; Cipriani, Christian

2014-01-01

A myoelectric controller should provide an intuitive and effective human-machine interface that deciphers user intent in real-time and is robust enough to operate in daily life. Many myoelectric control architectures have been developed, including pattern recognition systems, finite state machines, and more recently, postural control schemes. Here, we present a comparative study of two types of finite state machines and a postural control scheme using both virtual and physical assessment procedures with seven nondisabled subjects. The Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure (SHAP) was used in order to compare the effectiveness of the controllers during activities of daily living using a multigrasp artificial hand. Also, a virtual hand posture matching task was used to compare the controllers when reproducing six target postures. The performance when using the postural control scheme was significantly better (p state machines during the physical assessment when comparing within-subject averages using the SHAP percent difference metric. The virtual assessment results described significantly greater completion rates (97% and 99%) for the finite state machines, but the movement time tended to be faster (2.7 s) for the postural control scheme. Our results substantiate that postural control schemes rival other state-of-the-art myoelectric controllers.

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

Science.gov (United States)

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

At risk of being risky: The relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

OpenAIRE

Marc D. Rudolph; Oscar Miranda-Domínguez; Alexandra O. Cohen; Kaitlyn Breiner; Laurence Steinberg; Richard J. Bonnie; Elizabeth S. Scott; Kim Taylor-Thompson; Jason Chein; Karla C. Fettich; Jennifer A. Richeson; Danielle V. Dellarco; Adriana Galván; B.J. Casey; Damien A. Fair

2017-01-01

Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N = 212; 10–25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a ...

Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, Peter; Hirschberg, Stefan

2014-01-01

Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO 2 -emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

Prevalence and risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in the State of Bahia, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciana Bahiense

2016-11-01

Full Text Available An epidemiological study was carried out in order to characterize the bovine tuberculosis situation and to support the planning and implementation of the National Program for the Control and Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis in the State of Bahia, owing to the importance of the disease in causing economic burdens and its impact on public health. The State was divided into four regions. In each region, properties were randomly chosen and, a pre-established number of animals was also randomly selected; these animals then subjected to the intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin diagnostic test. Animals with inconclusive test results were retested with the same diagnostic procedure within a minimum interval of 60 days. Within each sampled property, a questionnaire was administered to verify possible risk factors for the disease. In the State, the prevalence of infected herds was 1.6% [1.0–2.6] and that of infected animals 0,21% [0,07; 0,60]. In the regions, the prevalence of infected herds and infected animals were, respectively, 2,0% [1,0; 4,2%] and 2,0% [1,0; 4,2%] in region 1; , 2,9% [1,5; 5,5] and 0,66% [0,20; 2,16] in region 2; 0,3% [0,04; 2,1] and 0,02% [0,002; 0,12] in region 3; and 0,6% [0,2; 2,5] and 0,05% [0,01; 0,20] in region 4. The risk factors associated with tuberculosis infection were dairy farm (odds ratio [OR] = 9.72 or mixed farm (OR = 6.66, and size of herd ? 18 cows ? 24 months of age (OR = 8.44. In conclusion, it is recommended that the State of Bahia implement a surveillance system for the detection of herds with bovine tuberculosis to certifying them in free herds, with special attention to dairy properties, and develop a solid program of health education so that producers test animals for bovine tuberculosis before introducing them into their herds.

Response planning and environmental risk analysis, state of Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gundlach, E.R.; Marben, G.M.

1993-01-01

Under the sponsorship of the Alaska Dept. of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), a multitasked study was undertaken to determine the relative risk of noncrude oil transport (including marine and freshwater), the status of spill response capability in the state, and the need and most appropriate locations for siting spill response deposits. The project used multidisciplinary transport and environmental data analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) to enable various scenarios and data changes to be easily visualized. The evaluation concerned (a) designation of significant environmental risk areas, (b) environmentally sensitive areas and fish and wildlife likely to be affected, (c) the level of response capability appropriate for protecting the environment, (d) the adequacy of current capabilities for noncrude vessels, (e) the feasibility of establishing one or more response cooperatives for use by multiple carriers, and (f) other steps that could be taken to reduce the risk of a spill and facilitate control and cleanup

Comparative Study of Barotrauma Risk during Fish Passage through Kaplan Turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richmond, Marshall C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Romero-Gomez, Pedro [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Serkowski, John A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Rakowski, Cynthia L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Graf, Michael J. [Voith Hydro, York, PA (United States)

2015-10-01

Rapid pressure changes in hydroelectric turbine flows can cause barotrauma that can be hazardous to the passage of fish, in particular migratory juvenile salmonids. Although numerous laboratory tests have evaluated the effect of rapid decompression in fish species of relevance, numerical modeling studies offer the advantage of predicting, for new turbine designs, the potential risks of mortality and injury from rapid pressure change during turbine passage. However, rapid pressure change is only one of several hydraulic risks encountered by fish during turbine passage in addition to blade strike, shear, and turbulence. To better understand the role of rapid pressure changes, the present work focuses on the application of a computational fluid dynamics based method for evaluating the risk of pressure-related mortality to fish passing through an early 1960s era original hydroelectric Kaplan turbine at Wanapum Dam (Columbia River, Washington), and a modern advanced Kaplan turbine installed in 2005. The results show that the modeling approach acceptably reproduced the nadir pressure distributions compared to field data previously collected at the site using an autonomous sensor. Our findings show that the new advanced-design unit performs better, in terms of reduced barotrauma risk to fish from exposure to low pressures, than the original turbine unit. The outcomes allow for comparative analyses of turbine designs and operations prior to installation, an advantage that can potentially be integrated in the process of designing new turbine units to achieve superior environmental performance. Overall, the results show that modern turbine designs can achieve the multiple objectives of increasing power generation, lowering cavitation potential, and reducing barotrauma risks to passing fish.

Comparing an Unstructured Risk Stratification to Published Guidelines in Acute Coronary Syndromes.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Ann-Jean C C; Hagemeijer, Anouk; Tortolani, Bess; Byrd, Bethany A; Parekh, Amisha; Datillo, Paris; Birkhahn, Robert

2015-09-01

Guidelines are designed to encompass the needs of the majority of patients with a particular condition. The American Heart Association (AHA) in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) developed risk stratification guidelines to aid physicians with accurate and efficient diagnosis and management of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). While useful in a primary care setting, in the unique environment of an emergency department (ED), the feasibility of incorporating guidelines into clinical workflow remains in question. We aim to compare emergency physicians' (EP) clinical risk stratification ability to AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines for ACS, and assessed each for accuracy in predicting ACS. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in an urban teaching hospital ED. All patients presenting to the ED with chest pain who were evaluated for ACS had two risk stratification scores assigned: one by the treating physician based on clinical evaluation and the other by the AHA/ACC/ACEP guideline aforementioned. The patient's ACS risk stratification classified by the EP was compared to AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines. Patients were contacted at 30 days following the index ED visit to determine all cause mortality, unscheduled hospital/ED revisits, and objective cardiac testing performed. We enrolled 641 patients presenting for evaluation by 21 different EPs. There was a difference between the physician's clinical assessment used in the ED, and the AHA/ACC/ACEP task force guidelines. EPs were more likely to assess patients as low risk (40%), while AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines were more likely to classify patients as intermediate (45%) or high (45%) risk. Of the 119 (19%) patients deemed high risk by EP evaluation, 38 (32%) were diagnosed with ACS. AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines classified only 57 (9%) patients low risk with 56 (98%) of those patients diagnosed with no ACS. In the ED, physicians are more efficient

Nonuse of contraception among women at risk of unintended pregnancy in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosher, William; Jones, Jo; Abma, Joyce

2015-08-01

This paper seeks to determine factors associated with nonuse of contraception by women at risk of unintended pregnancy in the United States. This nonuse may be associated with about 900,000 unintended births in the US each year. The 2002 and 2006-2010 National Surveys of Family Growth were combined to yield a nationally representative sample of 9,445 women at risk of unintended pregnancy. Logistic regression analyses identified factors associated with nonuse of contraception. This analysis reveals previously undocumented patterns of nonuse: controlling for confounding variables, cohabiting women [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.45-3.52] had higher odds of nonuse than married women; women who reported a difficulty getting pregnant (AOR=2.5, 95% CI=2.01-3.01) had higher odds of nonuse than those who did not. Nonuse was also more common among women with a master's degree or more (AOR=1.5, 95% CI=1.11-2.08) compared with those with some college or bachelor's degree, and it was more common among women in their first year after first intercourse than after the first year (AOR 1.6, 95% CI=1.12-2.22). Among women who had a recent unintended birth, the most common reason for not using contraception prior to conception was that she did not think she could get pregnant. This study establishes national estimates of reasons for nonuse of contraception and identifies some new subgroups at risk of nonuse. These results may help better understand factors affecting nonuse of contraception and develop strategies for preventing unintended pregnancy in the United States. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Three Risk Tolerance Measures: Turkey and the United States Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Ruiz-Manjivar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available An individual’s attitude toward financial risk tolerance (FRT is an important preference that influences financial decision-making under uncertainty. FRT involves inter-temporal resource allocation. Accurate and reliable measures of FRT are essential for professionals advising consumers as well as researchers who are trying to predict, and understand consumer behavior. This study explores cross-cultural risk tolerance by comparing random samples from Turkey, and the United States. Similar and distinctive attitudes and patterns regarding FRT are identified. Three subjective measures of FRT are employed in this study: Grable and Lytton (1999, Hanna, Gutter and Fan’s (2001 improved version of Barsky, Juster, Kimball and Shapiro (1997, and the Survey of Consumer Finance’s item on risk tolerance. Data was collected via an online survey that used the above-mentioned FRT measures. There were two versions: the original American English version, and a culturally translated Turkish version. To explore the correlation of FRT among measures, we use bivariate analysis by individually employing Pearson Chi-square test of independence, and cross tabulations analysis to each sample. In addition, by pooling both samples, we conduct cumulative logistic regression. We delineate FRT differences and consistencies between countries across subjective financial risk tolerance measures.

Comparative Health Risk Assessment of CdTe Solar PV System and Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

In terms of national energy policy decision-making process, several key factors, including low production cost, negligible risk or impact to environment and population around the facility, must be considered. The purpose of this paper is to assess the public health risk in case of postulated nuclear power plant and CdTe solar PV system accident and compare the estimated public health risk. Both systems release toxic materials to the environment which adversely affect nearby population by exposure from the inhalation and ingestion of the toxic material transported via air. By simulating the airborne transport of released toxic material using Gaussian plume model and modeling exposure pathways to nearby population, average individual health risk is assessed and public health risk per power capacity of each system is compared. The result shows that the average public health risk per power capacity of NPP is less than the case of solar PV system. This implies that NPP has lower risk in terms of public health risk in case of severe accident while it can be used as more reliable energy source than renewable energy source so that NPP would take priority over other renewable energy sources in terms of national energy policy

Comparative Risk Predictions of Second Cancers After Carbon-Ion Therapy Versus Proton Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eley, John G., E-mail: jeley@som.umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Friedrich, Thomas [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Homann, Kenneth L.; Howell, Rebecca M. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Scholz, Michael; Durante, Marco [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Newhauser, Wayne D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States); Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States)

2016-05-01

Purpose: This work proposes a theoretical framework that enables comparative risk predictions for second cancer incidence after particle beam therapy for different ion species for individual patients, accounting for differences in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for the competing processes of tumor initiation and cell inactivation. Our working hypothesis was that use of carbon-ion therapy instead of proton therapy would show a difference in the predicted risk of second cancer incidence in the breast for a sample of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Methods and Materials: We generated biologic treatment plans and calculated relative predicted risks of second cancer in the breast by using two proposed methods: a full model derived from the linear quadratic model and a simpler linear-no-threshold model. Results: For our reference calculation, we found the predicted risk of breast cancer incidence for carbon-ion plans-to-proton plan ratio, , to be 0.75 ± 0.07 but not significantly smaller than 1 (P=.180). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that second cancer risks are, on average, comparable between proton therapy and carbon-ion therapy.

Comparing population health in the United States and Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huguet Nathalie

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of the paper is to compare population health in the United States (US and Canada. Although the two countries are very similar in many ways, there are potentially important differences in the levels of social and economic inequality and the organization and financing of and access to health care in the two countries. Methods Data are from the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health 2002/03. The Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3 was used to measure overall health-related quality of life (HRQL. Mean HUI3 scores were compared, adjusting for major determinants of health, including body mass index, smoking, education, gender, race, and income. In addition, estimates of life expectancy were compared. Finally, mean HUI3 scores by age and gender and Canadian and US life tables were used to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE. Results Life expectancy in Canada is higher than in the US. For those Conclusions The population of Canada appears to be substantially healthier than the US population with respect to life expectancy, HRQL, and HALE. Factors that account for the difference may include access to health care over the full life span (universal health insurance and lower levels of social and economic inequality, especially among the elderly.

Antiseptic mouth rinses: an update on comparative effectiveness, risks and recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Osso, Diane; Kanani, Nehal

2013-02-01

Antiseptic mouth rinses are widely recommended and marketed to improve oral health. This article summarizes current studies on the comparative effectiveness of selected antiseptic mouth rinses in controlling plaque and gingivitis, as well as risks associated with daily exposure, including salivary flow rate, oral cancer and wear of composite restorations. Electronic database searches were conducted using Google Scholar and PubMed to identify articles comparing the effectiveness of 4 commercially marketed antiseptic mouth rinses differing in active ingredients (0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate, essential oils (menthol, thymol and eucalyptol) and methyl salicylate, 0.7% cetylpyridinium chloride and 20% aloe vera gel) for controlling plaque and gingivitis. Criteria for inclusion included controlled clinical trials and systematic reviews appearing in English language publications evaluating the comparative effectiveness of the mouth rinses in controlling plaque and gingivitis, as well as risks associated with daily usage. The majority of studies have shown mouth rinses containing chlorhexidine gluconate or essential oils and methyl salicylate provide clinically significant anti-gingivitis and anti-plaque benefits. Cetylpyridinium chloride has been found to provide only limited clinical benefits compared to inactive control mouth rinse. Inadequate evidence is available to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of aloe vera gel. Chlorhexidine, essential oils and cetylpyridinium have been found to be safe. However, limited data are available on the effects of the mouth rinse on wear patterns of dental restorations. Studies reviewed reported no significant difference in salivary flow rate related to alcohol based mouth rinse. Research supports the effectiveness of antiseptic mouth rinses in reducing plaque and gingivitis as an adjunct to home care. Insufficient evidence is available to support the claim that oral antiseptics can reduce the risk of developing periodontitis or the

Investigation of Breast Cancer Risk Factors in northern states of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Breast cancer is the most common type of cancers and leading cause of death among women worldwide. In Sudan breast cancer is the most common type of cancer and its incidence has been rising for the past two decades. Objective: To investigate whether the breast risk factors of northern states (Northern ...

Comparing the New York State Smokers' Quitline Reach, Services Offered, and Quit Outcomes to 44 Other State Quitlines, 2010 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Nathan; Nonnemaker, James; Chapman, LeTonya; Shaikh, Asma; Thompson, Jesse; Juster, Harlan

2018-06-01

To summarize the reach, services offered, and cessation outcomes of the New York Quitline and compare with other state quitlines. Descriptive study. Forty-five US states. State-sponsored tobacco cessation quitlines in 45 US states that provided complete data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Quitline Data Warehouse (NQDW) for 24 quarters over 6 years (2010-Q1 through 2015-Q4). Telephone quitlines that offer tobacco use cessation services, including counseling, self-help materials, and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), to smokers at no cost to them. Percentage of adult tobacco users in the state who received counseling and/or free NRT from state quitlines (reach), services offered by state quitlines, and cessation outcomes among quitline clients 7 months after using quitline services. Reach, services offered, and cessation outcomes for the New York Quitline were compared with similar measures for the other 44 state quitlines with complete NQDW data for all quarters from 2010 through 2015. New York's average annual quitline reach from 2010 through 2015 was 3.0% per year compared to 1.1% per year for the other 44 states examined. Although the New York Quitline was open fewer hours per week and offered fewer counseling sessions and a smaller amount of free NRT than most of the other 44 state quitlines, the New York Quitline had similar quit rates to most of those state quitlines.

Reduced brain resting-state network specificity in infants compared with adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Wylie, Korey P; Rojas, Donald C; Ross, Randal G; Hunter, Sharon K; Maharajh, Keeran; Cornier, Marc-Andre; Tregellas, Jason R

2014-01-01

Infant resting-state networks do not exhibit the same connectivity patterns as those of young children and adults. Current theories of brain development emphasize developmental progression in regional and network specialization. We compared infant and adult functional connectivity, predicting that infants would exhibit less regional specificity and greater internetwork communication compared with adults. Functional magnetic resonance imaging at rest was acquired in 12 healthy, term infants and 17 adults. Resting-state networks were extracted, using independent components analysis, and the resulting components were then compared between the adult and infant groups. Adults exhibited stronger connectivity in the posterior cingulate cortex node of the default mode network, but infants had higher connectivity in medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex than adults. Adult connectivity was typically higher than infant connectivity within structures previously associated with the various networks, whereas infant connectivity was frequently higher outside of these structures. Internetwork communication was significantly higher in infants than in adults. We interpret these findings as consistent with evidence suggesting that resting-state network development is associated with increasing spatial specificity, possibly reflecting the corresponding functional specialization of regions and their interconnections through experience.

Chronic kidney disease risk reduction in a Hispanic population through pharmacist-based disease-state management.

Science.gov (United States)

Leal, Sandra; Soto, Marisa

2008-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of a pharmacist-based disease-state management service to improve the care of indigent, predominately Spanish-speaking patients with diabetes mellitus and common comorbid conditions at high risk for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients at high risk for developing CKD who have diabetes at a community health center were placed in a pharmacist-based disease state management service for CKD risk reduction. A residency-trained, bilingual, certified diabetes educator, with a PharmD served as the patient's provider using diagnostic, educational, and therapeutic management services under a medical staff approved collaborative practice agreement. Outcomes were assessed by using national standards of care for disease control and prevention screening. The impact on CKD was shown with a mean A1C decrease of 2% and improvement in the proportion of patients at target goals for blood pressure, A1C, and cholesterol levels and receiving aspirin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker. A pharmacist-based disease-state management service for CKD risk reduction, care of diabetes, and frequently associated comorbid conditions improved compliance with national standards for diabetes care in a high-risk population.

Risks of corruption to state legitimacy and stability in fragile situations

OpenAIRE

Dix, Sarah; Hussmann, Karen; Walton, Grant

2012-01-01

Examining the cases of Liberia, Nepal and Colombia, this study asks how corruption poses risks to political legitimacy and stability in fragile situations. The report focuses on the key role of elites and their views of the state's legitimacy in determining the extent to which there will be instability or stability. Qualitative interviews of elites show that two particular patronage scenarios are seen as threatening stability. One is when the state or illegal actors sustain a corrupt network ...

Gestational age specific neonatal survival in the State of Qatar (2003-2008) - a comparative study with international benchmarks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Sajjad; Salameh, Khalil; Al-Rifai, Hilal; Masoud, Ahmed; Lutfi, Samawal; Salama, Husam; Abdoh, Ghassan; Omar, Fahmi; Bener, Abdulbari

2011-09-01

To analyze and compare the current gestational age specific neonatal survival rates between Qatar and international benchmarks. An analytical comparative study. Women's Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar, from 2003-2008. Six year's (2003-2008) gestational age specific neonatal mortality data was stratified for each completed week of gestation at birth from 24 weeks till term. The data from World Health Statistics by WHO (2010), Vermont Oxford Network (VON, 2007) and National Statistics United Kingdom (2006) were used as international benchmarks for comparative analysis. A total of 82,002 babies were born during the study period. Qatar's neonatal mortality rate (NMR) dropped from 6/1000 in 2003 to 4.3/1000 in 2008 (p Qatar were comparable with international benchmarks. The survival of Qatar (p=0.01 and p 32 weeks babies was better in UK (p=0.01) as compared to Qatar. The relative risk (RR) of death decreased with increasing gestational age (p Qatar. The current total and gestational age specific neonatal survival rates in the State of Qatar are comparable with international benchmarks. In Qatar, persistently high rates of low birth weight and lethal chromosomal and congenital anomalies significantly contribute towards neonatal mortality.

United States natural gas markets, contracts and risks: What lessons for the European Union and Asia-Pacific natural gas markets?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talus, Kim

2014-01-01

The article examines the natural gas markets of the United States, the European Union and the Asia-Pacific region and their regulation and contractual structures. The article's main focus is on the United States natural gas markets. The European Union and Asia-Pacific markets are compared to this more developed market. By comparing the physical and ideological characteristics of, and differences between, the three main international gas markets, the article exposes the limits of regulatory and contractual transplants in this area of law and policy. Each of these markets is unique, which limits the opportunities for modelling certain market institutions on the basis of the more developed markets in the United States. This applies for both the EU and the Asia-Pacific region. - Highlights: • Differences in the physical markets impact regulation. • Regulatory transplants have risks. • The approach in energy policy should be based on “Law-in-Context” approach

We can do better than effective dose for estimating or comparing low-dose radiation risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenner, D.J.

2012-01-01

The effective dose concept was designed to compare the generic risks of exposure to different radiation fields. More commonly these days, it is used to estimate or compare radiation-induced cancer risks. For various reasons, effective dose represents flawed science: for instance, the tissue-specific weighting factors used to calculate effective dose are a subjective mix of different endpoints; and the marked and differing age and gender dependencies for different health detriment endpoints are not taken into account. This paper suggests that effective dose could be replaced with a new quantity, ‘effective risk’, which, like effective dose, is a weighted sum of equivalent doses to different tissues. Unlike effective dose, where the tissue-dependent weighting factors are a set of generic, subjective committee-defined numbers, the weighting factors for effective risk are simply evaluated tissue-specific lifetime cancer risks per unit equivalent dose. Effective risk, which has the potential to be age and gender specific if desired, would perform the same comparative role as effective dose, be just as easy to estimate, be less prone to misuse, be more directly understandable, and would be based on solid science. An added major advantage is that it gives the users some feel for the actual numerical values of the radiation risks they are trying to control.

Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

2012-09-15

Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

Adolescents at risk of psychosis: a comparison of the "At risk mental state" and Multiple Complex Developmental Disorder

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sprong, M.

2008-01-01

Comparing vulnerability markers for psychosis in different high-risk populations will ultimately lead to more insight into the causes of the syndrome and a more accurate identification of at-risk individuals. This dissertation concentrated on the comparison of two groups of adolescents that are at

Uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, S.; Metcalf, D.R.; Pegram, J.W.

1982-01-01

Three uncertainty propagation techniques, namely method of moments, discrete probability distribution (DPD), and Monte Carlo simulation, generally used in probabilistic risk assessment, are compared and conclusions drawn in terms of the accuracy of the results. For small uncertainty in the basic event unavailabilities, the three methods give similar results. For large uncertainty, the method of moments is in error, and the appropriate method is to propagate uncertainty in the discrete form either by DPD method without sampling or by Monte Carlo. (orig.)

At risk of being risky: The relationship between "brain age" under emotional states and risk preference.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudolph, Marc D; Miranda-Domínguez, Oscar; Cohen, Alexandra O; Breiner, Kaitlyn; Steinberg, Laurence; Bonnie, Richard J; Scott, Elizabeth S; Taylor-Thompson, Kim; Chein, Jason; Fettich, Karla C; Richeson, Jennifer A; Dellarco, Danielle V; Galván, Adriana; Casey, B J; Fair, Damien A

2017-04-01

Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N=212; 10-25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the "brain age" of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that "brain age" across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts) relates to a group mean difference in risk perception - a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18-21). The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at "risk to be risky." Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Domestic Child Sex Trafficking in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Fedina, Lisa; Williamson, Celia; Perdue, Tasha

2016-07-01

Despite increased effort to respond to human trafficking at national and state levels, very little empirical research has been conducted on domestic child sex trafficking. This study retrospectively examines associations between multiple risk factors and domestic child sex trafficking (i.e., entry into the commercial sex industry under the age of 18) in a sample of individuals aged 16 and older currently involved in the commercial sex industry ( N = 273). Two primary research questions are addressed: (1) What set of risk factors, prior to entering the commercial sex industry, are associated with domestic child sex trafficking and (2) what group differences, if any, exist in risk factors between current or former domestic child sex-trafficking victims and non-trafficked adults engaged in the commercial sex industry? A cross-sectional survey was administered using Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) in five cities in one Midwestern state. Overall, 115 participants (48.3%) were identified as current or former domestic child sex-trafficking victims. Bivariate results suggest that childhood emotional and sexual abuse, rape, ever running away from home, having family members in sex work, and having friends who purchased sex were significantly associated with domestic child sex trafficking. Multivariate results indicate that domestic child sex trafficking victims were significantly more likely to have ever run away and to be a racial/ethnic minority than non-trafficked adults engaged in the commercial sex industry. Findings can inform state-level policies on human trafficking and assist child protection and juvenile justice agencies in developing prevention and intervention responses to commercial sexual exploitation.

On the state of the art: risk communication to decision-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bier, V.M.

2001-01-01

This paper reviews the state of the art on risk communication to decision-makers, with an emphasis on issues involved in communicating technical results. In particular, the paper discusses the treatment of uncertainty, variability, and dependence. It also reviews suggestions from the literature regarding the appropriate format of risk communication messages to decision-makers. Due to the lack of detailed empirical investigations and definitive results about this topic, the paper is not intended to be a comprehensive review, but rather as an exploration of key issues in this area

A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

1996-01-01

RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

The neural correlates of risk propensity in males and females using resting-state fMRI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan eZhou

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Men are more risk prone than women, but the underlying basis remains unclear. To investigate this question, we developed a trait-like measure of risk propensity which we correlated with resting-state functional connectivity to identify sex differences. Specifically, we used short- and long-range functional connectivity densities to identify associated brain regions and examined their functional connectivities in resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data collected from a large sample of healthy young volunteers. We found that men had a higher level of general risk propensity (GRP than women. At the neural level, although they shared a common neural correlate of GRP in a network centered at the right inferior frontal gyrus, men and women differed in a network centered at the right secondary somatosensory cortex, which included the bilateral dorsal anterior/middle insular cortices and the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex. In addition, men and women differed in a local network centered at the left inferior orbitofrontal cortex. Most of the regions identified by this resting-state fMRI study have been previously implicated in risk processing when people make risky decisions. This study provides a new perspective on the brain-behavioral relationships in risky decision making and contributes to our understanding of sex differences in risk propensity.

Deliberating the risks of nanotechnologies for energy and health applications in the United States and United Kingdom

Science.gov (United States)

Pidgeon, Nick; Harthorn, Barbara Herr; Bryant, Karl; Rogers-Hayden, Tee

2009-02-01

Emerging nanotechnologies pose a new set of challenges for researchers, governments, industries and citizen organizations that aim to develop effective modes of deliberation and risk communication early in the research and development process. These challenges derive from a number of issues including the wide range of materials and devices covered by the term `nanotechnology', the many different industrial sectors involved, the fact that many areas of nanotechnology are still at a relatively early stage of development, and uncertainty about the environmental, health and safety impacts of nanomaterials. Public surveys have found that people in the United States and Europe currently view the benefits of nanotechnologies as outweighing their risks although, overall, knowledge about nanotechnology remains very low. However, surveys cannot easily uncover the ways that people will interpret and understand the complexities of nanotechnologies (or any other topic about which they know very little) when asked to deliberate about it in more depth, so new approaches to engaging the public are needed. Here, we report the results of the first comparative United States-United Kingdom public engagement experiment. Based upon four concurrent half-day workshops debating energy and health nanotechnologies we find commonalities that were unexpected given the different risk regulatory histories in the two countries. Participants focused on benefits rather than risks and, in general, had a high regard for science and technology. Application context was much more salient than nation as a source of difference, with energy applications viewed in a substantially more positive light than applications in health and human enhancement in both countries. More subtle differences were present in views about the equitable distribution of benefits, corporate and governmental trustworthiness, the risks to realizing benefits, and in consumerist attitudes.

Increased risk of ischemic stroke after hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state: a population-based follow-up study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jen-Yu Wang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although much attention has been focused on the association between chronic hyperglycemia and cerebrovascular diseases in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM patients, there is no data regarding the risk of ischemic stroke after a hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state (HHS attack. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke in type 2 DM patients after an HHS attack. METHODS: From 2004 to 2008, this retrospective observational study was conducted on a large cohort of Taiwanese using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD. We identified 19,031 type 2 DM patients who were discharged with a diagnosis of HHS and 521,229 type 2 DM patients without an HHS diagnosis. Using the propensity score generated from logistic regression models, conditional on baseline covariates, we matched 19,031 type 2 DM patients with an HHS diagnosis with the same number from the comparison cohort. The one-year cumulative rate for ischemic stroke was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. After adjusting covariates, Cox proportional hazard regression was used to compute the adjusted one-year rate of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: Of the patients sampled, 1,810 (9.5% of the type 2 DM patients with HHS and 996 (5.2% of the comparison cohort developed ischemic stroke during the one-year follow-up period. After adjusting for covariates, the adjusted HR for developing ischemic stroke during the one-year follow-up period was 1.8 (95% C.I., 1.67 to 1.95, P<0.001 for type 2 DM patients with HHS compared with those without HHS. CONCLUSION: Although DM is a well-recognized risk factor for atherosclerosis, type 2 DM patients that have suffered a HHS attacks are at an increased risk of developing ischemic stroke compared with those without HHS.

Comparing risk profiles of individuals diagnosed with diabetes by OGTT and HbA1c

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borg, R.; Vistisen, D.; Witte, D.R.

2010-01-01

Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods.......Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods....

Efficient Frontier - Comparing Different Volatility Estimators

OpenAIRE

Tea Poklepović; Zdravka Aljinović; Mario Matković

2015-01-01

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that ra...

What is the relative health risk to swimmers from California Seagull feces compared to bather shedders?

Science.gov (United States)

Estimated infection risks to swimmers from California seagull and bather sources of fecal contamination at a beach in Southern California were compared using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The risk to swimmers of gastro-intestinal infections was estimated from Ca...

How information resources are used by state agencies in risk assessment applications - Illinois

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olson, C.S.

1990-12-31

The Environmental Protection Agency of the State of Illinois (Illinois EPA) has programs in water, air, and land pollution and water supplies paralleling those of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The organization is part of a tripartite arrangement in which the Pollution Control Board is the judicial arm, the Department of Energy and Natural Resources is the research arm, and the Illinois EPA is the enforcement arm. Other state agencies are also concerned with various aspects of the environment and may do risk assessments for chemicals. Although there are various risk assessment activities, both formal and informal, in our agency and in others, this paper will discuss only recent initiatives in water quality criteria.

Hemorrhagic and Ischemic Strokes Compared Stroke Severity, Mortality, and Risk Factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, T. S.; Dehlendorff, Christian

2009-01-01

were diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and intermittent arterial claudication. Smoking and alcohol consumption favored HS, whereas age, sex, and hypertension did not herald stroke type. Compared with ischemic strokes, HS was associated with an overall...... higher mortality risk (HR, 1.564; 95% CI, 1.441-1.696). The increased risk was, however, time-dependent; initially, risk was 4-fold, after 1 week it was 2.5-fold, and after 3 weeks it was 1.5-fold. After 3 months stroke type did not correlate to mortality. Conclusion-Strokes are generally more severe...... based on 25 123 individuals with a complete data set. Results-Of the patients 3993 (10.1%) had HS. Stroke severity was almost linearly related to the probability of having HS (2% in patients with the mildest stroke and 30% in those with the most severe strokes). Factors favoring ischemic strokes vs HS...

On the common risk explanation of the size-related premiums

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

de Oliveira Souza, Thiago

2018-01-01

to be marginally significant even in low risk states while the size premium is only significant in high risk states. This state dependence explains the out-of-sample R2 of around 29% for forecasts of the returns on the SMB portfolio, but only 7% for the HML portfolio compared to their historical means....

A comparative analysis of risk and quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

2017-01-01

Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS...... of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared......: In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count. RESULTS: We included 3503 HIV patients...

Cryptosporidium surveillance and risk factors in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoder, Jonathan S; Beach, Michael J

2010-01-01

Surveillance for Cryptosporidium in the United States indicates that the reported incidence of infection has increased dramatically since 2004. The reasons for this increase are unclear but might be caused by an actual increase in incidence, improved surveillance, improved awareness about cryptosporidiosis, and/or increases in testing practices resulting from the licensing of the first-ever treatment for cryptosporidiosis. While regional differences remain, the incidence of cryptosporidiosis appears to be increasing across the United States. Onset of illness is most common during the summer, particularly among younger children. Cryptosporidiosis case reporting also influences outbreak detection and reporting; the recent rise in cases coincides with an increase in the number of reported cryptosporidiosis outbreaks, particularly in treated recreational water venues. Risk factors include ingesting contaminated recreational or drinking water, exposure to infected animals, having close contacts with cryptosporidiosis, travel to disease-endemic areas, and ingestion of contaminated food. Advances in molecular characterization of clinical specimens have improved our understanding of the changing epidemiology and risk factors. Prevention and control of cryptosporidiosis requires continued efforts to interrupt the transmission of Cryptosporidium through water, food, and contact with infected persons or animals. Of particular importance is continued improvement and monitoring of drinking water treatment and advances in the design, operation, and management of recreational water venues coupled with behavioral changes among the swimming public. Published by Elsevier Inc.

National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzadfar Farshad

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, total cholesterol (TC, and high body mass index (BMI on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000 deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000 deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9 and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9 in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran

Sorting Out the Health Risk in California's State-Based Marketplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Bindman, Andrew B; Hulett, Denis; Gilmer, Todd P; Bertko, John

2016-02-01

To characterize the health risk of enrollees in California's state-based insurance marketplace (Covered California) by metal tier, region, month of enrollment, and plan. 2014 Open-enrollment data from Covered California linked with 2012 hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visit records from statewide all-payer administrative databases. Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System (CDPS) health risk scores derived from an individual's age and sex from the enrollment file and the diagnoses captured in the hospitalization and ED records. CDPS scores were standardized by setting the average to 1.00. Among the 1,286,089 enrollees, 120,573 (9.4 percent) had at least one ED visit and/or a hospitalization in 2012. Higher risk enrollees chose plans with greater actuarial value. The standardized CDPS health risk score was 11 percent higher in the first month of enrollment (1.08; 99 percent CI: 1.07-1.09) than the last month (0.97; 99 percent CI: 0.97-0.97). Four of the 12 plans enrolled 91 percent of individuals; their average health risk scores were each within 3 percent of the marketplace's statewide average. Providing health plans with a means to assess the health risk of their year 1 enrollees allowed them to anticipate whether they would receive or contribute payments to a risk-adjustment pool. After receiving these findings as a part of their negotiations with Covered California, health plans covering the majority of enrollees decreased their initially proposed 2015 rates, saving consumers tens of millions of dollars in potential premiums. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

1990-01-01

In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

Failing States as Epidemiologic Risk Zones: Implications for Global Health Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirschfeld, Katherine

Failed states commonly experience health and mortality crises that include outbreaks of infectious disease, violent conflict, reductions in life expectancy, and increased infant and maternal mortality. This article draws from recent research in political science, security studies, and international relations to explore how the process of state failure generates health declines and outbreaks of infectious disease. The key innovation of this model is a revised definition of "the state" as a geographically dynamic rather than static political space. This makes it easier to understand how phases of territorial contraction, collapse, and regeneration interrupt public health programs, destabilize the natural environment, reduce human security, and increase risks of epidemic infectious disease and other humanitarian crises. Better understanding of these dynamics will help international health agencies predict and prepare for future health and mortality crises created by failing states.

Disability and Risk of Recent Sexual Violence in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Breiding, Matthew J.; Smith, Sharon G.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To examine the relative prevalence of recent (past 12 months) penetrative and nonpenetrative sexual violence comparing men and women with and without a disability. Methods. Data are from the 2010 National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey, a national telephone survey of US adults, and includes an expansive measure of sexual violence victimization. A total of 9086 women and 7421 men completed the telephone survey in 2010. Results. Compared with persons without a disability, persons with a disability were at increased risk for recent rape for women (adjusted odds ratio = 3.3; 95% confidence interval = 1.6, 6.7), and being made to penetrate a perpetrator for men (adjusted odds ratio = 4.2; 95% confidence interval = 1.6, 10.8). An estimated 39% of women raped in the 12 months preceding the survey had a disability at the time of the rape. For women and men, having a disability was associated with an increased risk of sexual coercion and noncontact unwanted sexual experiences. Conclusions. In this nationally representative sample, men and women with a disability were at increased risk for recent sexual violence, compared to those without a disability. PMID:26890182

US State-level income inequality and risks of heart attack and coronary risk behaviors: longitudinal findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Gilman, Stephen E

2015-07-01

To examine prospectively the association between US state income inequality and incidence of heart attack. We used data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (n = 34,445). Respondents completed interviews at baseline (2001-2002) and follow-up (2004-2005). Weighted multilevel modeling was used to determine if US state-level income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) at baseline was a predictor of heart attack during follow-up, controlling for individual-level and state-level covariates. In comparison to residents of US states in the lowest quartile of income inequality, those living in the second [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 1.71, 95 % CI 1.16-2.53)], third (AOR = 1.81, 95 % CI 1.28-2.57), and fourth (AOR = 2.04, 95 % CI 1.26-3.29) quartiles were more likely to have a heart attack. Similar findings were obtained when we excluded those who had a heart attack prior to baseline. This study is one of the first to empirically show the longitudinal relationship between income inequality and coronary heart disease. Living in a state with higher income inequality increases the risk for heart attack among US adults.

Deconstructing the risk for malaria in United States donors deferred for travel to Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Bryan; Kleinman, Steven; Custer, Brian; Cable, Ritchard; Wilkinson, Susan L; Steele, Whitney; High, Patrick M; Wright, David

2011-11-01

More than 66,000 blood donors are deferred annually in the United States due to travel to malaria-endemic areas of Mexico. Mexico accounts for the largest share of malaria travel deferrals, yet it has extremely low risk for malaria transmission throughout most of its national territory, suggesting a suboptimal balance between blood safety and availability. This study sought to determine whether donor deferral requirements might be relaxed for parts of Mexico without compromising blood safety. Travel destination was recorded from a representative sample of presenting blood donors deferred for malaria travel from six blood centers during 2006. We imputed to these donors reporting Mexican travel a risk for acquiring malaria equivalent to Mexican residents in the destination location, adjusted for length of stay. We extrapolated these results to the overall US blood donor population. Risk for malaria in Mexico varies significantly across endemic areas and is greatest in areas infrequently visited by study donors. More than 70% of blood donor deferrals were triggered by travel to the state of Quintana Roo on the Yucatán Peninsula, an area of very low malaria transmission. Eliminating the travel deferral requirement for all areas except the state of Oaxaca might result in the recovery of almost 65,000 blood donors annually at risk of approximately one contaminated unit collected every 20 years. Deferral requirements should be relaxed for presenting donors who traveled to areas within Mexico that confer exceptionally small risks for malaria, such as Quintana Roo. © 2011 American Association of Blood Banks.

Design of risk communication strategies based on risk perception among farmers exposed to pesticides in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Peres, Frederico; Rodrigues, Karla Meneses; da Silva Peixoto Belo, Mariana Soares; Moreira, Josino Costa; Claudio, Luz

2013-01-01

This study aims to assess pesticide exposure risk perception among farmers from three rural areas of Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 66 adults and participatory workshops with 27 teenagers and analyzed through content analysis techniques. Systematized results were discussed at local meetings, and two risk communication initiatives were devised. Study results demonstrated the use of defensive strategies by men and a diminished risk perception among women. Teenagers relied on parents to develop their own work practices. These findings supported the importance of cultural and social determinants of farmers' understandings of risk and of the relevance of different pesticide exposure pathways. Risk perceptions and work practices are strongly influenced by local cultural patterns and, therefore, must be taken into account when developing effective intervention strategies, including risk communication initiatives. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A comparative review of the isotretinoin pregnancy risk management programs across four continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Kovitwanichkanont, Tom; Driscoll, Tim

2018-03-06

Isotretinoin has revolutionized the treatment of severe acne vulgaris, a condition which if left untreated may result in significant socio-psychological implications for those affected. Timely access to isotretinoin therapy is important to avoid the risks of potential physical and emotional scarring. However, due to its high risks of teratogenicity, isotretinoin must be used with care in females of childbearing potential. Since isotretinoin's introduction, numerous risk management programs have been implemented across the world in an attempt to prevent isotretinoin use in pregnancy. This paper aims to provide an evidence-based review of the risk management programs for isotretinoin in Australia, Europe, Singapore, New Zealand, and the United States of America. The effectiveness of these programs and the factors leading to isotretinoin exposure in pregnancy are critically analyzed in an effort to inform the future direction with respect to designing the ideal regulatory program. Stringent risk management programs, such as the iPLEDGE in the US and Pregnancy Prevention Program (PPP) in Europe, may not be effective in reducing the risks of fetal exposure to isotretinoin when used alone. There is evidence that such strenuous regulation results in increased fear of teratogenic risks but does not translate into a reduced rate of pregnancies exposed to isotretinoin. A successful program must prioritize education about effective contraception, while minimizing any extraneous requirements, to ensure that women are not inadvertently undertreated for acne. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

Assessing the optimism-pessimism debate: Nuclear proliferation, nuclear risks, and theories of state action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busch, Nathan Edward

2001-01-01

This dissertation focuses on the current debate in international relations literature over the risks associated with the proliferation of nuclear weapons. On this subject, IR scholars are divided into roughly two schools: proliferation 'optimists,' who argue that proliferation can be beneficial and that its associated hazards are at least surmountable, and proliferation 'pessimists,' who believe the opposite. This debate centers upon a theoretical disagreement about how best to explain and predict the behavior of states. Optimists generally ground their arguments on rational deterrence theory and maintain that nuclear weapons can actually increase stability among states, while pessimists often ground their arguments on 'organization theory,' which contends that organizational, bureaucratic, and other factors prevent states from acting rationally. A major difficulty with the proliferation debate, however, is that both sides tend to advance their respective theoretical positions without adequately supporting them with solid empirical evidence. This dissertation detailed analyses of the nuclear programs in the United States, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan to determine whether countries with nuclear weapons have adequate controls over their nuclear arsenals and tissue material stockpiles (such as highly enriched uranium and plutonium). These case studies identify the strengths and weaknesses of different systems of nuclear controls and help predict what types of controls proliferating states are likely to employ. On the basis of the evidence gathered from these cases, this dissertation concludes that a further spread of nuclear weapons would tend to have seriously negative effects on international stability by increasing risks of accidental, unauthorized, or inadvertent use of nuclear weapons and risks of thefts of fissile materials for use in nuclear or radiological devices by aspiring nuclear states or terrorist groups. (author)

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo

2011-01-01

Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, Howard; Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

2016-01-01

In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed.

Prevalence and determinants of hypertension in Abia State Nigeria: results from the Abia State Non-Communicable Diseases and Cardiovascular Risk Factors Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogah, Okechukwu S; Madukwe, Okechukwu O; Chukwuonye, Innocent I; Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu U; Ukegbu, Andrew U; Akhimien, Moses O; Onwubere, Basden J C; Okpechi, Ikechi G

2013-01-01

Hypertension is the most common non-communicable disease and risk factor for heart failure, stroke, chronic kidney disease and ischemic heart disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Few population-based studies have been conducted recently in Nigeria and, in Abia State, no previous study has been conducted on the prevalence and correlates of hypertension among the populace. The purpose of our study was, therefore, to determine the prevalence and determinants of high blood pressure in Abia State, southeastern Nigeria. We hypothesise that high blood pressure burden is high in Abia State. The study was a community based cross-sectional house-to-house survey aimed at ascertaining the burden/prevalence of hypertension in the state as well as identifying related risk factors associated with them. The study was conducted in rural and urban communities in Abia State, Nigeria. Participants in the study were men and women aged > or =15 years and were recruited from the three senatorial zones in the state. A total of 2,999 respondents were selected for the survey and, 2,983 consented to be interviewed giving a response rate of 99.5%. The data for 2,928 participants were suitable for analysis. Of these, 1,399 (47.8%) were men. The mean age of the population was 41.7 +/- 18.5 years (range 18-96 years). About 54% of the population were < or =40 years. Ninety percent had at least primary education with about 47% having completed secondary education. Expectedly, 96% of the respondents were Ibos, the predominant tribe in the southeastern part of the country. Women had significantly higher BMI than the men. Similarly, waist circumference was also larger in women but waist-to-hip ratio was only significantly higher in women in the urban areas compared to those in rural areas. Thirty-one percent of all participants had systolic hypertension (33.5% in men and 30.5% in women). This sex difference was statistically different in the urban area. On the other hand, diastolic hypertension was 22

At risk of being risky: the relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

Science.gov (United States)

Rudolph, Marc D.; Miranda-Dominguez, Oscar; Cohen, Alexandra O.; Breiner, Kaitlyn; Steinberg, Laurence; Bonnie, Richard J.; Scott, Elizabeth S.; Taylor-Thompson, Kim A.; Chein, Jason; Fettich, Karla C.; Richeson, Jennifer A.; Dellarco, Danielle V.; Galván, Adriana; Casey, BJ; Fair, Damien A.

2017-01-01

Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N=212; 10–25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that “brain age” across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts) relates to a group mean difference in risk perception – a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18–21). The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at “risk to be risky.” PMID:28279917

At risk of being risky: The relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc D. Rudolph

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N = 212; 10–25y examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that “brain age” across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts relates to a group mean difference in risk perception − a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18–21. The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at “risk to be risky.”

Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Reguero, Borja G; Beck, Michael W; Bresch, David N; Calil, Juliano; Meliane, Imen

2018-01-01

Coastal risks are increasing from both development and climate change. Interest is growing in the protective role that coastal nature-based measures (or green infrastructure), such as reefs and wetlands, can play in adapting to these risks. However, a lack of quantitative information on their relative costs and benefits is one principal factor limiting their use more broadly. Here, we apply a quantitative risk assessment framework to assess coastal flood risk (from climate change and economic exposure growth) across the United States Gulf of Mexico coast to compare the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures. These include nature-based (e.g. oyster reef restoration), structural or grey (e.g., seawalls) and policy measures (e.g. home elevation). We first find that coastal development will be a critical driver of risk, particularly for major disasters, but climate change will cause more recurrent losses through changes in storms and relative sea level rise. By 2030, flooding will cost $134-176.6 billion (for different economic growth scenarios), but as the effects of climate change, land subsidence and concentration of assets in the coastal zone increase, annualized risk will more than double by 2050 with respect to 2030. However, from the portfolio we studied, the set of cost-effective adaptation measures (with benefit to cost ratios above 1) could prevent up to $57-101 billion in losses, which represents 42.8-57.2% of the total risk. Nature-based adaptation options could avert more than $50 billion of these costs, and do so cost effectively with average benefit to cost ratios above 3.5. Wetland and oyster reef restoration are found to be particularly cost-effective. This study demonstrates that the cost effectiveness of nature-based, grey and policy measures can be compared quantitatively with one another, and that the cost effectiveness of adaptation becomes more attractive as climate change and coastal development intensifies in the future. It also

Transitions in state public health law: comparative analysis of state public health law reform following the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act.

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Benjamin Mason; Hodge, James G; Gebbie, Kristine M

2009-03-01

Given the public health importance of law modernization, we undertook a comparative analysis of policy efforts in 4 states (Alaska, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) that have considered public health law reform based on the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act. Through national legislative tracking and state case studies, we investigated how the Turning Point Act's model legal language has been considered for incorporation into state law and analyzed key facilitating and inhibiting factors for public health law reform. Our findings provide the practice community with a research base to facilitate further law reform and inform future scholarship on the role of law as a determinant of the public's health.

Issues, challenges, and approaches for risk-informed decommissioning in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orlando, D.A.; Johnson, R.L.

2005-01-01

Full text: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US-NRC) is the principal Federal regulatory authority in the United States responsible for ensuring public health and safety from the civilian use of radioactive material. US-NRC staff has developed and implemented various risk-informed approaches for regulating and managing the remediation of contaminated sites. A risk-informed approach to regulating the decommissioning of nuclear facilities has been generally defined by the US-NRC staff as an approach to decision-making that uses risk insights as well as traditional considerations to focus regulator and licensee attention on decommissioning activities commensurate with their importance to health and safety. Ensuring that decommissioning is carried out using a risk-informed approach should improve the focus on safety in decommissioning, improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and realism in regulatory decisions, and reduce unnecessary regulatory burden, and cost, on licensees. This paper summarizes the efforts by the US-NRC to develop and implement risk-informed approaches to the remediation of nuclear facilities in the United States. It also discusses the issues and challenges encountered by the US-NRC in attempting to implement a risk-informed approach to decommissioning. The US-NRC has been incrementally implementing its existing risk-informed and performance-based approach as it has completed its decommissioning regulations, guidance and other tools over the past several years. The principal challenge for US-NRC is implementing the existing risk-informed approach at specific sites in a manner that maintains safety, reduces costs, and enhances public understanding of the US-NRC's approach. In addition, effectively communicating how the US-NRC approaches are risk-informed and performance-based; ensuring that licensees understand, and take advantage of, the flexibility in meeting the decommissioning goals; ensuring that licensees and staff are aware of the

Migratory monarchs wintering in California experience low infection risk compared to monarchs breeding year-round on non-native milkweed.

Science.gov (United States)

Satterfield, Dara A; Villablanca, Francis X; Maerz, John C; Altizer, Sonia

2016-08-01

Long-distance migration can lower infection risk for animal populations by removing infected individuals during strenuous journeys, spatially separating susceptible age classes, or allowing migrants to periodically escape from contaminated habitats. Many seasonal migrations are changing due to human activities including climate change and habitat alteration. Moreover, for some migratory populations, sedentary behaviors are becoming more common as migrants abandon or shorten their journeys in response to supplemental feeding or warming temperatures. Exploring the consequences of reduced movement for host-parasite interactions is needed to predict future responses of animal pathogens to anthropogenic change. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) and their specialist protozoan parasite Ophryocystis elektroscirrha (OE) provide a model system for examining how long-distance migration affects infectious disease processes in a rapidly changing world. Annual monarch migration from eastern North America to Mexico is known to reduce protozoan infection prevalence, and more recent work suggests that monarchs that forego migration to breed year-round on non-native milkweeds in the southeastern and south central Unites States face extremely high risk of infection. Here, we examined the prevalence of OE infection from 2013 to 2016 in western North America, and compared monarchs exhibiting migratory behavior (overwintering annually along the California coast) with those that exhibit year-round breeding. Data from field collections and a joint citizen science program of Monarch Health and Monarch Alert showed that infection frequency was over nine times higher for monarchs sampled in gardens with year-round milkweed as compared to migratory monarchs sampled at overwintering sites. Results here underscore the importance of animal migrations for lowering infection risk and motivate future studies of pathogen transmission in migratory species affected by environmental change. © The

Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

OpenAIRE

Mkael Symmonds; Julian J Emmanuel; Megan E Drew; Rachel L Batterham; Raymond J Dolan

2010-01-01

Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regio...

The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steger, U.

1981-01-01

The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development for small island developing states.

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, James M; Cohen, Madeline A; Hermosilla, Sabrina; Espinel, Zelde; McLean, Andrew

2016-01-01

In contrast to continental nations, the world's 52 small island developing states (SIDS) are recognized as a collective of countries that experience disproportionate challenges for sustainable development related to their geography, small size, and physical isolation. These same states also face elevated risks for disaster incidence and consequences particularly in the realms of climate change, sea level rise, natural disasters (tropical cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes), and marine hazardous materials spills. Cyclone Winston's direct impact on Fiji in 2016 and Cyclone Pam's landfall over Vanuatu in 2015 provide case examples illustrating the special vulnerabilities of the SIDS.

Reduced brain resting-state network specificity in infants compared with adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wylie KP

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Korey P Wylie,1,* Donald C Rojas,1,* Randal G Ross,1 Sharon K Hunter,1 Keeran Maharajh,1 Marc-Andre Cornier,2 Jason R Tregellas1,3 1Department of Psychiatry, 2Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism and Diabetes, Department of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA; 3Denver Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Denver, CO, USA *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: Infant resting-state networks do not exhibit the same connectivity patterns as those of young children and adults. Current theories of brain development emphasize developmental progression in regional and network specialization. We compared infant and adult functional connectivity, predicting that infants would exhibit less regional specificity and greater internetwork communication compared with adults.Patients and methods: Functional magnetic resonance imaging at rest was acquired in 12 healthy, term infants and 17 adults. Resting-state networks were extracted, using independent components analysis, and the resulting components were then compared between the adult and infant groups.Results: Adults exhibited stronger connectivity in the posterior cingulate cortex node of the default mode network, but infants had higher connectivity in medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex than adults. Adult connectivity was typically higher than infant connectivity within structures previously associated with the various networks, whereas infant connectivity was frequently higher outside of these structures. Internetwork communication was significantly higher in infants than in adults.Conclusion: We interpret these findings as consistent with evidence suggesting that resting-state network development is associated with increasing spatial specificity, possibly reflecting the corresponding functional specialization of regions and their interconnections through experience. Keywords: functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging

Experience of the use of comparative evaluations of risks in the public discussion about nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borsch, P.

1983-01-01

In the nuclear controversy the risks of nuclear facilities play a major role. An evaluation of these risks is possible only by comparison with other risks to which people are exposed. For this purpose the selection of suitable comparative risk sources is important. But even if appropriate risk sources have been chosen, there will always be some rest dimensions which are difficult to encompass into the comparison. Among these problems are: the maximum damage, the time frame, the practical experience with a risk source, the different composition of the risk (death, injuries, cancers etc.), the uncertainty of risk assessment results, especially for chronic and late effects. One has to pay attention to these obstacles of comparing risks in the public discussion. Experience shows that risk comparison will be easier accepted if one explicitly refers to this difficulty. Also the different components of risks have to be presented, at least from its basic concept. An interesting possibility is the comparison of different risks with regard to their shortening of life expectancy. This common delimiter has to be used with care, since some comparisons decrease the probability of public acceptance for this method. Nevertheless this method provides a good illustration, of how small e.g. the risk of low doses of ionizing radiation is in comparison to smoking cigarettes. In any case it has to be pointed out that risk is not the only criterion for decisions about a technology, but that other factors like economics, fuel supply, degree of technical development have to be taken into account

Health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Algren, Maria Holst; Bak, Carsten Kronborg; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele

2015-01-01

in deprived neighbourhoods compared with those who live in non-deprived neighbourhoods and to summarise what kind of operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation that were used in the studies. METHODS: PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. Systematic searches were performed in Pub......Med, Embase, Web of Science and Sociological Abstracts using relevant search terms, Boolean operators, and truncation, and reference lists were scanned. Quantitative observational studies that examined health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods were eligible...... for inclusion. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 22 studies. The available literature showed a positive association between smoking and physical inactivity and living in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods. In regard to low fruit and vegetable consumption and alcohol...

At-Risk-of-Poverty Threshold

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Táňa Dvornáková

2012-06-01

Full Text Available European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC is a survey on households’ living conditions. The main aim of the survey is to get long-term comparable data on social and economic situation of households. Data collected in the survey are used mainly in connection with the evaluation of income poverty and determinationof at-risk-of-poverty rate. This article deals with the calculation of the at risk-of-poverty threshold based on data from EU-SILC 2009. The main task is to compare two approaches to the computation of at riskof-poverty threshold. The first approach is based on the calculation of the threshold for each country separately,while the second one is based on the calculation of the threshold for all states together. The introduction summarizes common attributes in the calculation of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, such as disposable household income, equivalised household income. Further, different approaches to both calculations are introduced andadvantages and disadvantages of these approaches are stated. Finally, the at-risk-of-poverty rate calculation is described and comparison of the at-risk-of-poverty rates based on these two different approaches is made.

Comparative risk assessment in the energy industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.

1981-01-01

This paper covers four approaches to risk assessment in the energy industry. The first is a comparison of the primary fuel cycles - coal and nuclear - standardized to 1 GW(e) power-plant year; this gives the societal risk of the production of a standardized amount of electricity. An example from underground coal mining is given to show how these estimates for the fuel cycles were made. The second approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks for different energy cycles per GWy(e). The third approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks of four different types of photovoltaic cell manufacture; this is an example of an intratechnology comparison. The fourth approach is a risk accounting method of analysis which estimates occupational health impacts for fabrication, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy technologies, and which, through an input-output model of the national economy, includes system-wide impacts as well as direct impacts of building and operating energy facilities

BOVINE RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND RISK FACTORS ON CATTLE HERDS OF CAMPECHE STATE, MEXICO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisandro Alberto Encalada Mena

2016-12-01

Full Text Available High seroprevalence in Yucatan and proximity to the state of Campeche make it necessary to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors of bovine respiratory syncytial virus (VRSB in the state of Campeche, Mexico. Thus the objective of the present work was to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV of the state of Campeche, Mexico. The sampled of 36 cattle herds (842 sera were analyzed by indirect ELISA kit, in the 11 municipalities of Campeche. A survey to obtain risk factors (sex, age of animals, number of animals grazing density, management system, presence of sheep on the farm and access to the roadside was applied and calculated X2 for each variable considered. Of the total number of samples analyzed (842, 273 were positive (32.47%. The prevalence ranges found ranged from 0% to 84%, so in 9 of the herds there were no positive samples, indicating a 75% (27/36 of dispersion of this virus. X2 analysis indicated that all variables were significant and are risk factors regarding with respect to the variable seroprevalence of BRSV. The results indicate a wide circulation of BRSV and we suggest implement recommendations that will enable a lower spread of this virus in the cattle population.

Temporal trends in marijuana attitudes, availability and use in Colorado compared to non-medical marijuana states: 2003-11.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuermeyer, Joseph; Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Price, Rumi Kato; Balan, Sundari; Thurstone, Christian; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T

2014-07-01

In 2009, policy changes were accompanied by a rapid increase in the number of medical marijuana cardholders in Colorado. Little published epidemiological work has tracked changes in the state around this time. Using the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we tested for temporal changes in marijuana attitudes and marijuana-use-related outcomes in Colorado (2003-11) and differences within-year between Colorado and thirty-four non-medical-marijuana states (NMMS). Using regression analyses, we further tested whether patterns seen in Colorado prior to (2006-8) and during (2009-11) marijuana commercialization differed from patterns in NMMS while controlling for demographics. Within Colorado those reporting "great-risk" to using marijuana 1-2 times/week dropped significantly in all age groups studied between 2007-8 and 2010-11 (e.g. from 45% to 31% among those 26 years and older; p=0.0006). By 2010-11 past-year marijuana abuse/dependence had become more prevalent in Colorado for 12-17 year olds (5% in Colorado, 3% in NMMS; p=0.03) and 18-25 year olds (9% vs. 5%; p=0.02). Regressions demonstrated significantly greater reductions in perceived risk (12-17 year olds, p=0.005; those 26 years and older, p=0.01), and trend for difference in changes in availability among those 26 years and older and marijuana abuse/dependence among 12-17 year olds in Colorado compared to NMMS in more recent years (2009-11 vs. 2006-8). Our results show that commercialization of marijuana in Colorado has been associated with lower risk perception. Evidence is suggestive for marijuana abuse/dependence. Analyses including subsequent years 2012+ once available, will help determine whether such changes represent momentary vs. sustained effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-informed Management of Water Infrastructure in the United States: History, Development, and Best Practices

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfhope, J.

2017-12-01

This presentation will focus on the history, development, and best practices for evaluating the risks associated with the portfolio of water infrastructure in the United States. These practices have evolved from the early development of the Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety and the establishment of the National Dam Safety Program, to the most recent update of the Best Practices for Dam and Levee Risk Analysis jointly published by the U.S. Department of Interior Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since President Obama signed the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act (WIIN) Act, on December 16, 2016, adding a new grant program under FEMA's National Dam Safety Program, the focus has been on establishing a risk-based priority system for use in identifying eligible high hazard potential dams for which grants may be made. Finally, the presentation provides thoughts on the future direction and priorities for managing the risk of dams and levees in the United States.

Cholera in the United States, 1965-1991. Risks at home and abroad.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, J T; Levine, W C; Hopkins, D P; Tauxe, R V

1994-03-14

To assess risks for cholera in the United States. Review of published reports of cholera outbreaks and sporadic cases and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) memoranda and laboratory reports. Persons with symptomatic laboratory-diagnosed cholera treated in the United States and territories. From 1965 through 1991, 136 cases of cholera were reported. Fifty-three percent of the patients were hospitalized and three persons died (case-fatality rate, 0.02). Ninety-three infections were acquired in the United States and 42 overseas; for one case the source was unknown. Domestically acquired cholera was largely related to the endemic Gulf Coast focus of Vibrio cholerae 01 (56 cases). The major domestic food vehicle was shellfish, particularly crabs harvested from the Gulf of Mexico or nearby estuaries. In 1991, 14 (54%) of 26 domestically acquired cases were caused by food from Ecuador (n = 11) and Thailand (n = 3). During 1991, the first cases of cholera in travelers returning from South America were reported. In 1991, the rate of cholera among air travelers returning from South America was estimated as 0.3 per 100,000; among air travelers returning from Ecuador, 2.6 per 100,000. Cholera remains a small but persistent risk in the United States and for travelers. An endemic focus on the Gulf Coast, the continuing global pandemic, and the epidemic in South America make this likely to continue for years to come. Physicians should know how to diagnose and treat cholera and should report all suspected cases to their state health departments.

Federalism, intergovernmental relations, and the challenge of the medically uninsurable: a retrospective on high risk pools in the states.

Science.gov (United States)

Plein, L Christopher

2010-01-01

While relatively overlooked in health policy research and analysis, state high risk insurance pools play a notable role in contemporary health policy arrangements. Also know as State Comprehensive Health Insurance Plans, high-risk pools emerged in the late 1970s as states began to grapple with the challenges of the medically uninsured. Today, thirty-five states operate these programs. To further our understanding of health and human services administration, it is important to examine these plans, especially in context of intergovernmental health policy in the United States. This analysis provides an overview of high risk pool evolution and gives attention to forces that have shaped their development, such as model legislation, funding arrangements, and increasing federal-level interest in their use as platforms to advance national policy initiatives.

Frequency and Risk of Marijuana Use among Substance-Using Health Care Patients in Colorado with and without Access to State Legalized Medical Marijuana.

Science.gov (United States)

Richmond, Melissa K; Pampel, Fred C; Rivera, Laura S; Broderick, Kerryann B; Reimann, Brie; Fischer, Leigh

2015-01-01

With increasing use of state legalized medical marijuana across the country, health care providers need accurate information on patterns of marijuana and other substance use for patients with access to medical marijuana. This study compared frequency and severity of marijuana use, and use of other substances, for patients with and without state legal access to medical marijuana. Data were collected from 2,030 patients who screened positive for marijuana use when seeking health care services in a large, urban safety-net medical center. Patients were screened as part of a federally funded screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) initiative. Patients were asked at screening whether they had a state-issued medical marijuana card and about risky use of tobacco, alcohol, and other illicit substances. A total of 17.4% of marijuana users had a medical marijuana card. Patients with cards had higher frequency of marijuana use and were more likely to screen at moderate than low or high risk from marijuana use. Patients with cards also had lower use of other substances than patients without cards. Findings can inform health care providers of both the specific risks of frequent, long-term use and the more limited risks of other substance use faced by legal medical marijuana users.

Qualitative Assessment for Toxoplasma gondii Exposure Risk Associated with Meat Products in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Miao; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Ying, Yuqing; Gamble, H Ray; Jones, Jeffrey L; Pradhan, Abani K

2015-12-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a global protozoan parasite capable of infecting most warm-blooded animals. Although healthy adult humans generally have no symptoms, severe illness does occur in certain groups, including congenitally infected fetuses and newborns, immunocompromised individuals including transplant patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that consumption of raw or undercooked meat products is one of the major sources of infection with T. gondii. The goal of this study was to develop a framework to qualitatively estimate the exposure risk to T. gondii from various meat products consumed in the United States. Risk estimates of various meats were analyzed by a farm-to-retail qualitative assessment that included evaluation of farm, abattoir, storage and transportation, meat processing, packaging, and retail modules. It was found that exposure risks associated with meats from free-range chickens, nonconfinement-raised pigs, goats, and lamb are higher than those from confinement-raised pigs, cattle, and caged chickens. For fresh meat products, risk at the retail level was similar to that at the farm level unless meats had been frozen or moisture enhanced. Our results showed that meat processing, such as salting, freezing, commercial hot air drying, long fermentation times, hot smoking, and cooking, are able to reduce T. gondii levels in meat products. whereas nitrite and/or nitrate, spice, low pH, and cold storage have no effect on the viability of T. gondii tissue cysts. Raw-fermented sausage, cured raw meat, meat that is not hot-air dried, and fresh processed meat were associated with higher exposure risks compared with cooked meat and frozen meat. This study provides a reference for meat management control programs to determine critical control points and serves as the foundation for future quantitative risk assessments.

A Review and Comparative Analysis of Security Risks and Safety Measures of Mobile Health Apps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Scott

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In line with a patient-centred model of healthcare, Mobile Health applications (mhealth apps provide convenient and equitable access to health and well-being resources and programs that can enable consumers to monitor their health related problems, understand specific medical conditions and attain personal fitness goals. This increase in access and control comes with an increase in risk and responsibility to identify and manage the associated risks, such as the privacy and security of consumers’ personal and health information. Based on a review of the literature, this paper identifies a set of risk and safety features for evaluating mHealth apps and uses those features to conduct a comparative analysis of the 20 most popular mHealth apps. The comparative analysis reveals that current mHealth apps do pose a risk to consumers. To address the safety and privacy concerns, recommendations to consumers and app developers are offered together with consideration of mHealth app future trends.

Models for comparing lung-cancer risks in radon- and plutonium-exposed experimental animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.; Cross, F.T.; Sanders, C.L.; Dagle, G.E.

1990-10-01

Epidemiologic studies of radon-exposed underground miners have provided the primary basis for estimating human lung-cancer risks resulting from radon exposure. These studies are sometimes used to estimate lung-cancer risks resulting from exposure to other alpha- emitters as well. The latter use, often referred to as the dosimetric approach, is based on the assumption that a specified dose to the lung produces the same lung-tumor risk regardless of the substance producing the dose. At Pacific Northwest Laboratory, experiments have been conducted in which laboratory rodents have been given inhalation exposures to radon and to plutonium ( 239 PuO 2 ). These experiments offer a unique opportunity to compare risks, and thus to investigate the validity of the dosimetric approach. This comparison is made most effectively by modeling the age-specific risk as a function of dose in a way that is comparable to analyses of human data. Such modeling requires assumptions about whether tumors are the cause of death or whether they are found incidental to death from other causes. Results based on the assumption that tumors are fatal indicate that the radon and plutonium dose-response curves differ, with a linear function providing a good description of the radon data, and a pure quadratic function providing a good description of the plutonium data. However, results based on the assumption that tumors are incidental to death indicate that the dose-response curves for the two exposures are very similar, and thus support the dosimetric approach. 14 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs

Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

2017-12-01

Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be

Risks associated with antiretroviral treatment for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV): qualitative analysis of social media data and health state utility valuation.

Science.gov (United States)

Matza, Louis S; Chung, Karen C; Kim, Katherine J; Paulus, Trena M; Davies, Evan W; Stewart, Katie D; McComsey, Grace A; Fordyce, Marshall W

2017-07-01

Despite benefits of antiretroviral therapies (ART), people with HIV infection have increased risk of cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and low bone mineral density. Some ARTs increase risk of these events. The purpose of this study was to examine patients' perspectives of these risks and estimate health state utilities associated with these risks for use in cost-utility models. Qualitative thematic analysis was conducted to examine messages posted to the POZ/AIDSmeds Internet community forums, focusing on bone, kidney, and cardiovascular side effects and risks of HIV/AIDS medications. Then, health state vignettes were drafted based on this qualitative analysis, literature review, and clinician interviews. The health states (representing HIV, plus treatment-related risks) were valued in time trade-off interviews with general population participants in the UK. Qualitative analysis of the Internet forums documented patient concerns about ART risks, as well as treatment decisions made because of these risks. A total of 208 participants completed utility interviews (51.4% female; mean age 44.6 years). The mean utility of the HIV health state (virologically suppressed, treated with ART) was 0.86. Adding a description of risk resulted in statistically significant disutility (i.e., utility decreases): renal risk (disutility = -0.02), bone risk (-0.03), and myocardial infarction risk (-0.05). Patient concerns and treatment decisions were documented via qualitative analysis of Internet forum discussions, and the impact of these concerns was quantified in terms of health state utilities. The resulting disutilities may be useful for differentiating among ARTs in economic modeling of treatment for patients with HIV.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

2016-01-01

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

Addressing Child Poverty: How Does the United States Compare With Other Nations?

Science.gov (United States)

Smeeding, Timothy; Thévenot, Céline

2016-04-01

Poverty during childhood raises a number of policy challenges. The earliest years are critical in terms of future cognitive and emotional development and early health outcomes, and have long-lasting consequences on future health. In this article child poverty in the United States is compared with a set of other developed countries. To the surprise of few, results show that child poverty is high in the United States. But why is poverty so much higher in the United States than in other rich nations? Among child poverty drivers, household composition and parent's labor market participation matter a great deal. But these are not insurmountable problems. Many of these disadvantages can be overcome by appropriate public policies. For example, single mothers have a very high probability of poverty in the United States, but this is not the case in other countries where the provision of work support increases mothers' labor earnings and together with strong public cash support effectively reduces child poverty. In this article we focus on the role and design of public expenditure to understand the functioning of the different national systems and highlight ways for improvements to reduce child poverty in the United States. We compare relative child poverty in the United States with poverty in a set of selected countries. The takeaway is that the United States underinvests in its children and their families and in so doing this leads to high child poverty and poor health and educational outcomes. If a nation like the United States wants to decrease poverty and improve health and life chances for poor children, it must support parental employment and incomes, and invest in children's futures as do other similar nations with less child poverty. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas electricity contracts: A summary of the California Department of Water Resources contracts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bachrach, Devra; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Golove, William

2003-03-12

Electricity markets in the United States have witnessed unprecedented instability over the last few years, with substantial volatility in wholesale market prices, significant financial distress among major industry organizations, and unprecedented legal, regulatory and legislative activity. These events demonstrate the considerable risks that exist in the electricity industry. Recent industry instability also illustrates the need for thoughtful resource planning to balance the cost, reliability, and risk of the electricity supplied to end-use customers. In balancing different supply options, utilities, regulators, and other resource planners must consider the unique risk profiles of each generating source. This paper evaluates the relative risk profiles of renewable and natural gas generating plants. The risks that exist in the electricity industry depend in part on the technologies that are used to generate electricity. Natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plant additions in the United States. To some, this emphasis on a single fuel source signals the potential for increased risk. Renewable generation sources, on the other hand, are frequently cited as a potent source of socially beneficial risk reduction relative to natural gas-fired generation. Renewable generation is not risk free, however, and also imposes certain costs on the electricity sector. This paper specifically compares the allocation and mitigation of risks in long-term natural gas-fired electricity contracts with the allocation and mitigation of these same risks in long-term renewable energy contracts. This comparison highlights some of the key differences between renewable and natural gas generation that decision makers should consider when making electricity investment and contracting decisions. Our assessment is relevant in both regulated and restructured markets. In still-regulated markets, the audience for this report clearly includes regulators and the utilities they

Value-at-Risk Analysis for the Tunisian Currency Market: A comparative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aymen Ben Rejeb

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to compare empirically four Value-at-Risk simulation methods, namely, the Variance-Covariance, the Historical Simulation, the Bootstrapping and the Monte Carlo. We tried to estimate the VaR associated to three currencies and four currency portfolios in the Tunisian exchange market. Data covers the period between 01-01-1999 and 31-12-2007. Independently of the used technique, the Japanese Yen seems to be the most risky currency. Moreover, the portfolio diversification reduces the exchange rate risk. Lastly, the number of violations, when they exist, does not generally differ between the simulation methods. Recent evaluation tests were applied to select the most appropriate technique predicting precisely the exchange rate risk. Results based on these tests suggest that the traditional Variance-Covariance is the most appropriate method.

Managing crime through migration law in Australia and the United States: a comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoang, Khanh; Reich, Sudrishti

2017-01-01

This article examines the intertwining of migration law and criminal law - termed 'crimmigration' by scholars - in Australia and the United States of America, and its implications for non-citizens who engage in criminal conduct. Our comparison of the two systems demonstrates that the laws and policies in both jurisdictions are similar to a significant degree. Both have strong exclusionary policies characterised by sweeping visa cancellation/removal powers, a heavy focus on enforcement, and limited review rights. In Australia, legislative amendments in 2014 have given the executive greater powers to cancel visas and remove non-citizens on character grounds as a means of ensuring national security and public safety. This has coincided with a new law enforcement body created within the Australian Department of Immigration. These changes reflect a repurposing of migration law as a tool for managing criminal threats based on the concept of 'risk management'. Drawing on the experience of the United States - where such a 'risk management' approach is entrenched - we query the utility of this shift and highlight the potential pitfalls of pursuing such a policy for Australia.

Smoking, alcohol, coffee, tea, caffeine, and theobromine: risk of prostate cancer in Utah (United States).

Science.gov (United States)

Slattery, M L; West, D W

1993-11-01

Data from a population-based study of newly diagnosed cases of prostate cancer (n = 362) and age-matched controls (n = 685) conducted in Utah (United States) between 1983 and 1986 were used to determine if cigarette smoking, alcohol, coffee, tea, caffeine, and theobromine were associated with prostate cancer risk. These factors were examined since their use differs in the Utah population, which is comprised predominantly of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormon), from most other populations. Pack-years of cigarettes smoked, alcohol intake, and consumption of alcohol, coffee, tea, and caffeine were not associated with prostate cancer risk. Compared with men with very low levels of theobromine intake, older men consuming 11 to 20 and over 20 mg of theobromine per day were at increased risk of prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] for all tumors = 2.06, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 1.33-3.20, and OR = 1.47, CI = 0.99-2.19, respectively; OR for aggressive tumors = 1.90, CI = 0.90-3.97, and OR = 1.74, CI = 0.91-3.32, respectively). We present biological mechanisms for a possible association between prostate cancer and theobromine. This finding needs further exploration in studies with a wider range of theobromine exposures and more men with aggressive tumors.

Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

2010-08-01

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Images of welfare in law and society: the British welfare state in comparative perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Wincott, Daniel

2011-01-01

Designed by Beveridge and built by Attlee's post-war Labour government, the welfare state was created during the 1940s. Britain has been seen – in domestic debates and internationally – as a world first: the place where both the idea and the practice of the welfare state were invented. I draw together comparative welfare state analysis with law and society scholarship (previously largely developed in isolation from one another) – as well as using British political cartoons as a source – to develop a revisionist historical critique of this conventional wisdom. First, the British welfare state has always been comparatively parsimonious. Second, the idea of the welfare state seems to have its origins outside the United Kingdom and this terminology was adopted relatively late and with some ambivalence in public debate and scholarly analysis. Third, a large body of socio-legal scholarship shows that robust ‘welfare rights’ were never embedded in the British ‘welfare state’.

Identification of soil erosion risk areas for conservation planning in different states of India.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharda, V N; Mandal, Debashis; Ojasvi, P R

2013-03-01

Assessment of soil erosion risks, especially in the developing countries, is a challenging task mainly due to non-availability or insufficiency of relevant data. In this paper, the soil erosion risks have been estimated by integrating the spatial data on potential erosion rates and soil loss tolerance limits for conservation planning at state level in India. The erosion risk classes have been prioritized based upon the difference between the prevailing erosion rates and the permissible erosion limits. The analysis revealed that about 50% of total geographical area (TGA) of India, falling in five priority erosion risk classes, requires different intensity of conservation measures though about 91% area suffers from potential erosion rates varying from 40 t ha(-1) yr(-1). Statewise analysis indicated that Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan share about 75% of total area under priority Class 1 (6.4 M ha) though they account for only 19.4% of the total area (36.2 M ha) under very severe potential erosion rate category (> 40 t ha(-1)yr(-1)). It was observed that about 75% of total geographical area (TGA) in the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala and Punjab does not require any specific soil conservation measure as the potential erosion rates are well within the tolerance limits. The developed methodology can be successfully employed for prioritization of erosion risk areas at watershed, region or country level.

Increased risk of treatment with antidepressants in stroke compared with other chronic illness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dam, Henrik; Harhoff, Mette; Andersen, Per Kragh

2007-01-01

The prevalence of depression and anxiety is higher in patients with stroke than in the general population but it is unclear whether patients with stroke are at an increased risk of being treated for depression and anxiety compared with patients with other chronic illness. The objective...... of the present study was to investigate whether the rate of treatment with antidepressants is increased in patients with stroke compared with patients with other chronic illness and compared with the general population. By linkage of nationwide case registers, all patients who received a main diagnosis of stroke...

Media Messages and Perception of Risk for Ebola Virus Infection, United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Sell, Tara Kirk; Boddie, Crystal; McGinty, Emma E; Pollack, Keshia; Smith, Katherine Clegg; Burke, Thomas A; Rutkow, Lainie

2017-01-01

News media have been blamed for sensationalizing Ebola in the United States, causing unnecessary alarm. To investigate this issue, we analyzed US-focused news stories about Ebola virus disease during July 1-November 30, 2014. We found frequent use of risk-elevating messages, which may have contributed to increased public concern.

Risk factors for prevalent hepatitis C virus-infection among inmates in a state prison system in Mexico.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo F Belaunzarán-Zamudio

Full Text Available To estimate the prevalence of HCV-infection and identify associated factors among inmates in the State Prison System of Guanajuato in Mexico (Sep-2011 to Feb-2012.Cross-sectional, observational study in 10 prisons in the State of Guanajuato in Mexico (2011-2012. We offered HCV-testing and applied audio computer-assisted self-interviews to all adults imprisoned in the State Prison System. We used a complex survey analysis to estimate the distribution of variables and its corresponding 95% confidence intervals, taking into consideration the expected cluster effect by common characteristics within prisons. Inverse probability weights were applied to correct potential biased estimates arising from non-participation in accrual activities and non-response rates. We fitted multivariate logistic regression models to identify risk-behaviors associated to HCV-infection.We included data of 2,519 participating inmates. Prevalence of HCV-infection was 4.9 (95%CI = 3.6-5.9. Most HCV-infected inmates were male (99%. Before being incarcerated, inmates with HCV-infection were more frequently tattooed, used and injected drugs more frequently, and were more likely to share materials for injecting, when compared with those non-infected. During incarceration, HCV-infected inmates got tattoos and used drugs more often than non-infected, including injecting-drugs and sharing materials. Injecting-drug use (OR = 7.6, 95%CI, 2.5-23.4, sharing materials for injecting-drugs (OR = 19.6, 95%CI, 4.7-81.7 and being tattooed at least once before incarceration (OR = 2.1, 95%CI, 1.1-3.9, but not during incarceration, were independently associated to HCV-infection.The prevalence of HCV-infection among inmates in the State of Guanajuato in Mexico is considerably higher than in the general population. The most important risk factors for HCV in this inmate population were injecting-drugs and sharing materials for injections before incarceration. High-risk behaviors during

Thiazolidinediones are associated with a decreased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with other antidiabetic treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pallisgaard, Jannik Langtved; Lindhardt, Tommi Bo; Staerk, Laila

2017-01-01

sensitizer that also has anti-inflammatory effects, which might decrease the risk of AF compared with other antidiabetic drugs. We used data from the Danish nationwide registries to study 108 624 patients with diabetes and without prior AF who were treated with metformin or sulfonylurea as first-line drugs...... drugs. The decreased risk of AF remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.76 (0.57-1.00), P = 0.047 associated with TZD treatment compared with other antidiabetic drugs. CONCLUSION: Use of a TZD to treat diabetes was associated with reduced...

Are men shortchanged on health? Perspective on health care utilization and health risk behavior in men and women in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinkhasov, R M; Wong, J; Kashanian, J; Lee, M; Samadi, D B; Pinkhasov, M M; Shabsigh, R

2010-03-01

Significant gender disparities exist in life expectancy and major disease morbidity. There is a need to understand the major issues related to men's health that contributes to these significant disparities. It is hypothesized that, high-risk behaviors and low utilization of all and preventive health services contribute to the higher mortality and the higher and earlier morbidity in men. Data was collected from CDC: Health United States, 2007; Health Behavior of Adults: United States 2002-04; and National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2005 Summary. In United States, men are more likely to be regular and heavy alcohol drinkers, heavier smokers who are less likely to quit, non-medical illicit drug users, and are more overweight compared to women. Men are less likely to utilize health care visits to doctor's offices, emergency departments (ED), and physician home visits than women. They are also less likely to make preventive care, hospice care, dental care visits, and have fewer hospital discharges and shorter hospital stays than women. High-risk behaviors and low utilization of health services may contribute to the lower life expectancy in men. In the context of public health, behavioral and preventive interventions are needed to reduce the gender disparity.

Potential health risks due to telecommunications radiofrequency radiation exposures in Lagos State Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Aweda, M A; Ajekigbe, A T; Ibitoye, A Z; Evwhierhurhoma, B O; Eletu, O B

2009-01-01

The global system mobile telecommunications system (GSM) which was recently introduced in Nigeria is now being used by over 40 million people in Nigeria. The use of GSM is accompanied with exposure of the users to radiofrequency radiation (RFR), which if significant, may produce health hazards. This is the reason why many relevant national and international organizations recommended exposure limits to RFR and why it is made compulsory for GSM handsets to indicate the maximum power output as a guide to potential consumers. This study was conducted to measure the RFR output power densities (S) from the most commonly used GSM handsets used in Lagos State and compare with the limit recommended for safety assessment. Over 1100 most commonly used handsets of different makes and models as well as wireless phones were sampled and studied in all over the local government areas of the State. An RFR meter, Electrosmog from LESSEMF USA was used for the measurements. The handsets were assessed for health risks using the reference value of 9 Wm(-2) as recommended by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP). The range of the S-values obtained varied from a minimum of 1.294 0.101 Wm(-2) with Siemens model R228 to a maximum of 16.813 +/- 0.094 Wm(-2) with Samsung model C140*. The results from wireless telephones showed very low S-values ranging from a minimum of 0.024 +/- 0.001 Wm(-2) with HUAWEI and ST CDMA 1 to a maximum of 0.093 +/- 0.002 Wm(-2) with HISENSE. The results showed that the population in Lagos State may be at risk due to significant RFR exposures resulting principally from the use of GSM. Quite a number of handsets emit power above the ICNIRP recommended value. Measured RFR power close to Radio and Television masts and transmitters are within tolerable limits in most cases, only that the public should not reside or work close to RFR installations. Phone calls with GSM should be restricted to essential ones while youths and children

The Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk: State of Workshop Education

OpenAIRE

Pisani, Anthony R.; Cross, Wendi F.; Gould, Madelyn S.

2011-01-01

A systematic search of popular and scholarly databases identified workshops that addressed general clinical competence in the assessment or management of suicide risk, targeted mental health professionals, and had at least one peerreviewed publication. We surveyed workshop developers and examined empirical articles associated with each workshop. The state of workshop education is characterized by presenting the learning objectives, educational formats, instructor factors, and evaluation studi...

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

Risk Assessment in the Istanbul Strait Using Black Sea MOU Port State Control Inspections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esma Gül Emecen Kara

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The Istanbul Strait has intense maritime traffic while, at the same time, it poses significant navigational challenges. Due to these properties, there is always a high risk arising from maritime shipping in this region. Especially, substandard ships threaten life, as well as the marine environment. In this aspect, Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MOU Port State Control Inspections are important for maritime safety in the Istanbul Strait, because they directly reflect the performance of ships passing through the Istanbul Strait. Stringent and effective inspections assist in the enhancement of navigation safety and help to develop sustainable environment management. In this context, this study aims to assess maritime safety for the Strait region concerning passing flag states. Firstly, to assess the performance of flag states in general, the Black Sea MOU Black-Grey-White lists were generated for the period 2004–2014 and the change in the performance of these flags was examined. Secondly, the risk level of each flag state passing from the Strait region was determined using the method of weighted points based on the Black-Grey-White List, deficiency index level, casualty index level, and passing index level.

Understanding Suicide Across the Lifespan: A United States Perspective of Suicide Risk Factors, Assessment & Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Steele, Ian H; Thrower, Natasha; Noroian, Paul; Saleh, Fabian M

2018-01-01

Suicide is a troubling, preventable phenomenon. Prior to attempts, individuals often seek help, prompting practitioners to perform risk assessments that ideally use evidence-based risk management strategies. A literature review was performed using Harvard Countway Library of Medicine, Google Scholar, PubMed. Key words used were "Forensic Science," "Suicide Risk Management," "Pediatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Adult Suicide Risk Factors," "Geriatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Suicide Risk Assessment." Parameters limited articles to studies/reviews completed in the past twenty years in the United States. Results indicated predictors of suicide in juveniles were insomnia, burdensomeness, and recent conflicts with family or a romantic partner. Adults had greater risk if male, substance abusing, with marital/job loss. Elderly individuals with multiple medical comorbidities, hopelessness, and isolation were at higher risk. Everyone evaluated should be screened for access to firearms. Management of suicide risk involves providing the least restrictive form of treatment which maintains an individual's safety. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

1992-01-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

2006-01-01

Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

1991-01-01

Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

The comparative burden of salmonellosis in the European Union member states, associated and candidate countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Jong Birgitta

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Salmonella is an infectious agents causing numerous cases of illness each year, and thereby having significant economic impact. Using returning Swedish travellers we estimated the burden of salmonellosis in different European countries. Methods From the Swedish database on notifiable communicable diseases 15,864 cases with travel-associated salmonellosis acquired in Europe from 1997–2003 were retrieved. These cases were compared to a dataset from the same years on 14,171 randomly selected Swedish residents, with a history of recent overnight travel in Europe. Distribution of salmonellosis in returning travellers and the distribution of Salmonella Enteritidis was analysed for different member states in the European Union, associated and candidate countries. The risk of being notified with a salmonella infection after return from each European country/region was calculated, and compared with official reporting data rom these countries. Using Norway as reference country, we could 1 construct comparable incidence estimates and 2 calculate the "under-reporting" in each country compared to Norway. Results The highest burden of salmonellosis was estimated for Bulgaria (2741/100,000, followed by Turkey with 2344/100 000 and Malta with 2141/100 000. S. Enteritidis is the dominating serotype, 66.9 % of all cases and phage type 4 accounts for 37.5 % of the S. Enteritidis cases Conclusion Using returning tourists as a sentinel population can provide a useful base for comparison of disease burdens in different countries/regions. Focusing prevention of salmonellosis to prevention of egg and poultry associated S. Enteritidis infection will have a major impact from a public health perspective and will significantly lower the burden of disease in most European countries.

A comparative critical study between FMEA and FTA risk analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Cristea, G.; Constantinescu, DM

2017-10-01

Today there is used an overwhelming number of different risk analyses techniques with acronyms such as: FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and its extension FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis), DRBFM (Design Review by Failure Mode), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and and its extension ETA (Event Tree Analysis), HAZOP (Hazard & Operability Studies), HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) and What-if/Checklist. However, the most used analysis techniques in the mechanical and electrical industry are FMEA and FTA. In FMEA, which is an inductive method, information about the consequences and effects of the failures is usually collected through interviews with experienced people, and with different knowledge i.e., cross-functional groups. The FMEA is used to capture potential failures/risks & impacts and prioritize them on a numeric scale called Risk Priority Number (RPN) which ranges from 1 to 1000. FTA is a deductive method i.e., a general system state is decomposed into chains of more basic events of components. The logical interrelationship of how such basic events depend on and affect each other is often described analytically in a reliability structure which can be visualized as a tree. Both methods are very time-consuming to be applied thoroughly, and this is why it is oftenly not done so. As a consequence possible failure modes may not be identified. To address these shortcomings, it is proposed to use a combination of FTA and FMEA.

Type 2 diabetes risk alleles demonstrate extreme directional differentiation among human populations, compared to other diseases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rong Chen

Full Text Available Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may

Risks and threats of tax state security and methods of their neutralization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.V. Lebedzevych

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article substantiates the relevance of the study to ensure security of the state tax. Scientists studied different approaches to defining the essence of the concept of "security tax" on the key features that would satisfy the interests of all subjects of tax relations and the necessity of legal consolidation of this concept. Analyzed the economic, social and legal nature of the existence of the security tax, identified key indicators of fiscal security of Ukraine. To determine the effectiveness of the tax administration in the interests of the tax security highlights the main threats, tax security risks caused by external and internal factors, and propose measures for their elimination and prevent the possibility of their occurrence. The stages of tax risk management with effective building security tax, designed structurally-logic of the tax risk management security.

Public perceptions of climate change as a human health risk: surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta.

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, Karen; Debono, Roberto; Berry, Peter; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Rogaeva, Anastasia; Nisbet, Matthew C; Weathers, Melinda R; Maibach, Edward W

2010-06-01

We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78-91%), heat-related problems (75-84%), cancer (61-90%), and infectious diseases (49-62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the

Public Perceptions of Climate Change as a Human Health Risk: Surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Akerlof

2010-06-01

Full Text Available We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%, their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%, and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76% as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31% said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45% and children (33% are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78–91%, heat-related problems (75–84%, cancer (61–90%, and infectious diseases (49–62%. Canadians also named sunburn (79% and injuries from extreme weather events (73%, and Maltese cited allergies (84%. However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the

Awareness regarding risk factors, symptoms and treatment facilities for cancer in selected states of India.

Science.gov (United States)

Raj, Sherin; Piang, Lam Khan; Nair, K S; Tiwari, V K; Kaur, H; Singh, Bacchu

2012-01-01

To study the level of awareness and knowledge about cancers and associated risk factors among households in selected states of India. In the study 3070 households were interviewed from six states viz, West Bengal, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Mizoram. Knowledge of cancers other than those related to tobacco was very low (prostate 8%, colon 11% ) among the communities, with a poor awareness of warning signs and symptoms. The knowledge varied from state to state. It is found that the major source of information related to cancers was television (38%) followed by friends and relatives (36%). Only about 15 % of respondents had knowledge about cancer awareness camps organized in their districts but they did not have knowledge about the organizers of the camp. Findings suggested a strong need for strengthening of DCCP. It is important to create awareness among community through educational programs on cancer prevention, preventable cancer risk factors, benefits of early diagnosis, and availability of screening facilities. Integration of District Cancer Control activities with NRHM could be the most cost-effective strategy to prevent cancers and rural population.

Earthquake Disaster Risk Index for Cities: Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varazanashvili, O.; Mammadli, T.; Nazaretyan, S.

2005-01-01

For comparative analysis of seismic risk in the capitals of the South Caucasian States - Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi - the methodology of determination of earthquake disaster risk index (EDRI) has been used. Earthquake disaster risk indexes have been determined for considered cities. EDRI-analysis is performed, some peculiarities of main risk factors are revealed and risk portraits are made in each city of the given sample. (author)

Unconventional oil and gas spills: Materials, volumes, and risks to surface waters in four states of the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Maloney, Kelly O; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Patterson, Lauren A; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Entrekin, Sally A; Fargione, Joseph E; Kiesecker, Joseph M; Konschnik, Kate E; Ryan, Joseph N; Trainor, Anne M; Saiers, James E; Wiseman, Hannah J

2017-03-01

Extraction of oil and gas from unconventional sources, such as shale, has dramatically increased over the past ten years, raising the potential for spills or releases of chemicals, waste materials, and oil and gas. We analyzed spill data associated with unconventional wells from Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota and Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2014, where we defined unconventional wells as horizontally drilled into an unconventional formation. We identified materials spilled by state and for each material we summarized frequency, volumes and spill rates. We evaluated the environmental risk of spills by calculating distance to the nearest stream and compared these distances to existing setback regulations. Finally, we summarized relative importance to drinking water in watersheds where spills occurred. Across all four states, we identified 21,300 unconventional wells and 6622 reported spills. The number of horizontal well bores increased sharply beginning in the late 2000s; spill rates also increased for all states except PA where the rate initially increased, reached a maximum in 2009 and then decreased. Wastewater, crude oil, drilling waste, and hydraulic fracturing fluid were the materials most often spilled; spilled volumes of these materials largely ranged from 100 to 10,000L. Across all states, the average distance of spills to a stream was highest in New Mexico (1379m), followed by Colorado (747m), North Dakota (598m) and then Pennsylvania (268m), and 7.0, 13.3, and 20.4% of spills occurred within existing surface water setback regulations of 30.5, 61.0, and 91.4m, respectively. Pennsylvania spills occurred in watersheds with a higher relative importance to drinking water than the other three states. Results from this study can inform risk assessments by providing improved input parameters on volume and rates of materials spilled, and guide regulations and the management policy of spills. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocks, Sophie A; Schubert, Iljana; Soane, Emma; Black, Edgar; Muckle, Rachel; Petts, Judith; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon J

2017-09-01

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Retinopathy of prematurity: Revisiting incidence and risk factors from Oman compared to other countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyes, Zenaida Soriano; Al-Mulaabed, Sharef Waadallah; Bataclan, Flordeliz; Montemayor, Cheryl; Ganesh, Anuradha; Al-Zuhaibi, Sanaa; Al-Waili, Huda; Al-Wahibi, Fatma

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the incidence of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) and the maternal/neonatal risk factors at a tertiary care hospital in Oman, compared to other countries. A retrospective analysis of premature neonates born with gestational age (GA) 24-32 weeks at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Oman, from January 2007 to December 2010. Maternal and neonatal in-hospital course was retrieved. The incidence of ROP was reported. Risk factors analyses were performed using univariate and multivariate statistics. A total of 171 neonates (57% males, 43% females) were included for analysis. The incidence of ROP (any stage) was 69/171 (40.4%). Infants with ROP had significantly lower GA (27.7±2 weeks) compared to non-ROP group (30.2±1.7 weeks), P < 0.001),P < 0.001) and significantly lower birth weight (BW) (948 ± 242 g in ROP group vs. 1348 ± 283 g in non-ROP group;P < 0.001). Other significant risk factors associated with ROP were: small for GA, respiratory distress syndrome, requirement for ventilation, duration of ventilation or oxygen therapy, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, hyperglycemia, late onset sepsis (clinical or proven), necrotizing enterocolitis, patent ductus arteriosus, seizures, and number of blood transfusions. There was no significant difference in maternal characteristics between the ROP and non-ROP groups except that mothers of infants with ROP were found to be significantly younger. Logistic regression analysis revealed early GA, low BW, duration of Oxygen therapy, and late-onset clinical or proven sepsis as independent risk factors. ROP is still commonly encountered in neonatal practice in Oman and other countries. Early GA, low BW, and prolonged oxygen therapy continue to be the main risk factors associated with the occurrence of ROP in our setting. In addition, an important preventable risk factor identified in our cohort includes clinical or proven late-onset sepsis.

Construction of the State and the Risks of Its Destruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alain Joxe

1997-09-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, the danger of war and insecurity in the Mediterranean countries is dependant upon existing fracture lines within states moreso than it does upon the risk of armed inter-state confrontation. Internal instability is related to, according to Alain Joxe, the end of Russian-American strategic bipolarity in the Mediterranean, inasmuch as the subsequent changes brought about in the international system have impacted on the Mediterranean political societies and on intra-state violence. Though the Mediterranean represents a place where antinomies exist between the economies of the North and South, the policies of Europe and the United States, and matters belonging to civilisation - Islam, Judaism, the Christian world and the modernist secular tradition, the intrusion of the great systems of world power via the globalising economy causes ruptures in localsocieties and leads to the weakening of the states. In order to create a system of security in the Mediterranean, it is therefore necessary to apply a critical method that discards cultural and historical stereotypes, looks again at the supposed successes obtained by the different peace agreements, and identifies the negative aspects of economic globalisation. Such a method must be accompanied by the objective of forcing negotiations to take place among the true actors in Mediterranean society –the states– and also among the other ethnic, linguistic or religious entities, large organisations like the EU, NATO and the Arab League, and commercial groups and business leaders who must integrate themselves in a regimented international economy.

A comparative study of the use of different risk-assessment models in Danish municipalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kresta Munkholt

2018-01-01

Risk-assessment models are widely used in casework involving vulnerable children and families. Internationally, there are a number of different kinds of models with great variation in regard to the characteristics of factors that harm children. Lists of factors have been made but most of them give...... very little advice on how the factors should be weighted. This paper will address the use of risk-assessment models in six different Danish municipalities. The paper presents a comparative analysis and discussion of differences and similarities between three models: the Integrated Children’s System...... (ICS), the Signs of Safety (SoS) model and models developed by the municipalities themselves (MM). The analysis will answer the following two key questions: (i) to which risk and protective factors do the caseworkers give most weight in the risk assessment? and (ii) does each of the different models...

State of emergency and emergency: Comparative terminological and semantic aspects

OpenAIRE

Avramović, Dragutin; Mlađan, Dragan

2014-01-01

The issue of theoretical definition and distinction between a state of emergency and an emergency is made current in recent national and international literature, as well as in different comparative law normative solutions. Considering the usage inconsistencies of the two terms, this paper attempts to highlight the differences between them, as they essentially carry distinctive legal meanings despite their implied lexical and logical similarity. The paper stresses the necessity of their clear...

Anal Cytology and Human Papillomavirus Genotyping in Women With a History of Lower Genital Tract Neoplasia Compared With Low-Risk Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Robison, Katina; Cronin, Beth; Bregar, Amy; Luis, Christine; DiSilvestro, Paul; Schechter, Steven; Pisharodi, Latha; Raker, Christina; Clark, Melissa

2015-12-01

To compare the prevalence of abnormal anal cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) among women with a history of HPV-related genital neoplasia with women without a history of HPV-related genital neoplasia. A cross-sectional cohort study was performed from December 2012 to February 2014. Women were recruited from outpatient clinics at an academic medical center. Women with a history of high-grade cervical, vulvar, or vaginal cytology, dysplasia, or cancer were considered the high-risk group. Women with no history of high-grade anogenital dysplasia or cancer were considered the low-risk group. Human immunodeficiency virus-positive women were excluded. Anal cytology and HPV genotyping were performed. Women with abnormal anal cytology were referred for high-resolution anoscopy. There were 190 women in the high-risk group and 83 in the low-risk group. The high-risk group was slightly older: 57 years compared with 47 years (P=.045); 21.7% of low-risk women had abnormal anal cytology compared with 41.2% of high-risk women (P=.006). High-risk HPV was detected in the anal canal of 1.2% of the low-risk group compared with 20.8% of the high-risk group (PHuman immunodeficiency virus-negative women with a history of lower genital tract neoplasia are more likely to have positive anal cytology, anal high-risk HPV, and anal intraepithelial neoplasia. Anal cancer screening should be considered for these high-risk women. II.

Spatial analysis of environment and population at risk of natural gas fracking in the state of Pennsylvania, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qingmin

2015-05-15

Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, has been increasing exponentially across the United States, which holds the largest known shale gas reserves in the world. Studies have found that the high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing process (HVHFP) threatens water resources, harms air quality, changes landscapes, and damages ecosystems. However, there is minimal research focusing on the spatial study of environmental and human risks of HVHFP, which is necessary for state and federal governments to administer, regulate, and assess fracking. Integrating GIS and spatial kernel functions, we study the presently operating fracking wells across the state of Pennsylvania (PA), which is the main part of the current hottest Marcellus Shale in US. We geographically process the location data of hydraulic fracturing wells, 2010 census block data, urbanized region data, railway data, local road data, open water data, river data, and wetland data for the state of PA. From this we develop a distance based risk assessment in order to understand the environmental and urban risks. We generate the surface data of fracking well intensity and population intensity by integrating spatial dependence, semivariogram modeling, and a quadratic kernel function. The surface data of population risk generated by the division of fracking well intensity and population intensity provide a novel insight into the local and regional regulation of hydraulic fracturing activities in terms of environmental and health related risks due to the proximity of fracking wells. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in poverty risks among people with and without limiting-longstanding illness by employment status in Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom during the current economic recession -- a comparative study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falk, Johanna; Bruce, Daniel; Burström, Bo

2013-01-01

Previous studies have found higher employment rates and lower risk of relative poverty among people with chronic illness in the Nordic countries than in the rest of Europe. However, Nordic countries have not been immune to the general rise in poverty in many welfare states in recent decades....... This study analysed the trends in poverty risks among a particularly vulnerable group in the labour market: people with limiting-longstanding illness (LLSI), examining the experience of those with and without employment, and compared to healthy people in employment in Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom....

Australian Defence Risk Management Framework: A Comparative Study

Science.gov (United States)

2005-02-01

disadvantage or gain. There may be a range of possible outcomes associated with an event. Definition 1.3.3 Event An incident or situation, which occurs in a...prohibitive insurance costs. Sometimes, advantages may far outweigh disadvantages making risk more justifiable. The unacceptable risks are...objectives, work culture and risk management approaches. Globalisation and introduction of new technologies have significantly complicated the situation

Poverty and the Income Package of Working Parents: The United States in Comparative Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Rainwater, Lee

1995-01-01

Examines poverty rates among families with children in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Compares the United States' rates to each of these countries to highlight the role of sickness insurance, child allowances, child support, income-tested social assistance, unemployment…

This is my neighborhood: comparing United States and Australian Oxford House Neighborhoods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Joseph R; Jason, Leonard A; Blake, Ron; Davis, Margaret I; Olson, Bradley D

2006-01-01

The number of Oxford Houses, communal-living, mutual help settings for persons in recovery of alcohol and substance abuse, has spread across the United States and recently in and around Melbourne, Australia. In this study 55 US and 6 AU Houses were compared descriptively for their neighborhood characteristics. Across settings, there were greater similarities than significant differences in the locations. Results imply that Australian Oxford Houses are "safe and sober" settings for persons in recovery consistent with the original United States model in physical dwelling settings.

Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mercury risk to avian piscivores across western United States and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Allyson K.; Evers, David C.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Willacker, James J.; Elliott, John E.; Lepak, Jesse M.; Vander Pol, Stacy S.; Bryan, Colleen E.

2016-01-01

The widespread distribution of mercury (Hg) threatens wildlife health, particularly piscivorous birds. Western North America is a diverse region that provides critical habitat to many piscivorous bird species, and also has a well-documented history of mercury contamination from legacy mining and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of landscapes in the west limits the distribution of avian piscivore species, complicating broad comparisons across the region. Mercury risk to avian piscivores was evaluated across the western United States and Canada using a suite of avian piscivore species representing a variety of foraging strategies that together occur broadly across the region. Prey fish Hg concentrations were size-adjusted to the preferred size class of the diet for each avian piscivore (Bald Eagle = 36 cm, Osprey = 30 cm, Common and Yellow-billed Loon = 15 cm, Western and Clark's Grebe = 6 cm, and Belted Kingfisher = 5 cm) across each species breeding range. Using a combination of field and lab-based studies on Hg effect in a variety of species, wet weight blood estimates were grouped into five relative risk categories including: background ( 3 μg/g). These risk categories were used to estimate potential mercury risk to avian piscivores across the west at a 1 degree-by-1 degree grid cell resolution. Avian piscivores foraging on larger-sized fish generally were at a higher relative risk to Hg. Habitats with a relatively high risk included wetland complexes (e.g., prairie pothole in Saskatchewan), river deltas (e.g., San Francisco Bay, Puget Sound, Columbia River), and arid lands (Great Basin and central Arizona). These results indicate that more intensive avian piscivore sampling is needed across Western North America to generate a more robust assessment of exposure risk.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in HIV-infected patients: comparing the Framingham, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) and Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Krikke, M; Hoogeveen, R C; Hoepelman, A I M; Visseren, F L J; Arends, J E

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to compare the predictions of five popular cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models, namely the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) coronary heart disease (FHS-CHD) and general CVD (FHS-CVD) models, the American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD) model and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) model. A cross-sectional design was used to compare the cumulative CVD risk predictions of the models. Furthermore, the predictions of the general CVD models were compared with those of the HIV-specific D:A:D model using three categories ( 20%) to categorize the risk and to determine the degree to which patients were categorized similarly or in a higher/lower category. A total of 997 HIV-infected patients were included in the study: 81% were male and they had a median age of 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-52] years, a known duration of HIV infection of 6.8 (IQR 3.7-10.9) years, and a median time on ART of 6.4 (IQR 3.0-11.5) years. The D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models gave a lower cumulative CVD risk, compared with that of the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models. Comparing the general CVD models with the D:A:D model, the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models only classified 65% and 79% of patients, respectively, in the same category as did the D:A:D model. However, for the ASCVD and SCORE-NL models, this percentage was 89% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD attributed a higher CVD risk to 33% and 16% of patients, respectively, while this percentage was D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models. This could have consequences regarding overtreatment, drug-related adverse events and drug-drug interactions. © 2015 British HIV Association.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of toxocariasis in preschool children in Aragua state, Venezuela.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, María; García, Héctor; Figuera, Liliana; González, Verónica; Lamas, Félix; López, Katherinne; Mijares, Víctor; Corrales, Yeasiry; Lares, María; Ferrer, Elizabeth

2015-09-01

Toxocariasis is a widespread zoonotic disease caused by the nematode Toxocara canis. In Venezuela, the magnitude of the disease is unknown and seroepidemiological studies have not been previously carried out in Aragua state. A cross-sectional field study was conducted in eight preschools in three municipalities from Aragua state in Venezuela. A total of 224 children aged between 1 and 6 years were studied (43.8% [98/224] male and 56.2% [126/224] female). Blood samples were obtained for detection of IgG antibodies against Toxocara spp. using ELISA. Participating families were given a questionnaire and children included in the study were clinically evaluated by paediatricians, and signs and symptoms observed were included in the questionnaires. Anti-Toxocara spp. antibodies were detected in 29.0% (65/224) of children. The seroprevalence in the different preschools studied ranged between 4.2% and 60.6%. Leucocytosis and eosinophilia were also detected. Analysis of questionnaires indicated that boys were more at risk than girls. Younger children were also more at risk. Other significant risk factors were socio-economic strata (IV and V), inadequate improvised housing, earthen flooring indoors and outdoors and the presence of dogs in preschools. The results from this work show the presence of infection and a high prevalence of antibodies against Toxocara spp. in the studied municipalities and indicate that toxocariasis poses a serious health problem to preschool children in Aragua state. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Awareness of risk factors for cancer: a comparative study of Sweden and Denmark.

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Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada; Fischer Pedersen, Anette; Runesdotter, Sara; Vedsted, Peter; Tishelman, Carol

2015-11-23

Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors. Over 90 % of respondents in both countries recognized smoking, use of sunbeds and ionizing radiation as risk factors for cancer. Lowest awareness (awareness than Danish respondents for ten of the 13 risk factors studied. Respondents from Denmark reported higher awareness only regarding low fruit and vegetable intake and use of sunbeds. Low physical activity was the only risk factor for which there was no difference in awareness between the countries. A decline in awareness was generally seen with increasing age in both countries, but deviating patterns were seen for alcohol intake, red/processed meat, obesity and age 70+. This study supports findings from other European studies that generally demonstrate modest public awareness of many established cancer risk factors. Efforts should be made to improve awareness of the cancer risk factors HPV-infection, low fruit and vegetable intake and alcohol intake, which showed particularly low awareness in both countries. Previous studies indicate that repeated, broad campaigns are successful, and suggest that a multimedia approach is used.

Comparing performance of 30-day readmission risk classifiers among hospitalized primary care patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrison, Gregory M; Robelia, Paul M; Pecina, Jennifer L; Dawson, Nancy L

2017-06-01

Hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge occurs in almost 20% of US Medicare patients and may be a marker of poor quality inpatient care, ineffective hospital to home transitions, or disease severity. Within a patient centered medical home, care transition interventions may only be practical from cost and staffing perspectives if targeted at patients with the greatest risk of readmission. Various scoring algorithms attempt to predict patients at risk for 30-day readmission, but head-to-head comparison of performance is lacking. Compare published scoring algorithms which use generally available electronic medical record data on the same set of hospitalized primary care patients. The LACE index, the LACE+ index, the HOSPITAL score, and the readmission risk score were computed on a consecutive cohort of 26,278 hospital admissions. Classifier performance was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristic curves comparing the computed score with the actual outcome of death or readmission within 30 days. Statistical significance of differences in performance was assessed using bootstrapping techniques. Correct readmission classification on this cohort was moderate with the following c-statistics: Readmission risk score 0.666; LACE 0.680; LACE+ 0.662; and HOSPITAL 0.675. There was no statistically significant difference in performance between classifiers. Logistic regression based classifiers yield only moderate performance when utilized to predict 30-day readmissions. The task is difficult due to the variety of underlying causes for readmission, nonlinearity, and the arbitrary time period of concern. More sophisticated classification techniques may be necessary to increase performance and allow patient centered medical homes to effectively focus efforts to reduce readmissions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Scientific practices and social behaviors in managing landslide risks: comparing experiences between developing and developed countries

Science.gov (United States)

Devoli, G.

2012-04-01

A successful landslide risk reduction program requires that the society is aware and understand the landslide problems within the geographic area involved. Central organizations that manage national landslide risks should: a) create and systematically applied natural hazard laws/national landslide strategies, where roles and limits of responsibilities of federal, state, provincial, municipal and private entities are well defined; c) establish fruitful multidisciplinary and interinstitutional collaboration among scientists; d) provide good risk assessments in which landslide experts report transparently what is really known and the limitations of methods and tools used; e) share and systematically communicate their knowledge more effectively with all private and public stakeholders involved, paying attention to providing balanced information about risks and addressing inevitable uncertainties; f) support the mass-media in spreading correct scientific information; g) perform serious risk and cost-benefit analyses before mitigation measures are realized; h) assist local authorities in the application of land-use planning policies and g) built trust and confidence by means of a continuous contact and communication with the public and local authorities. However, this is not yet achieved, not even in developed countries where, in theory, more economical resources are available and people are better educated then in developing countries. Herein I make some observations on how national landslide prevention efforts are being organized in two countries (Nicaragua and Norway), where I have been worked at governmental agencies as landslide expert in the last 10 years. I start describing similarities and differences between the countries and try to compare practices and experiences. The analysis was motivated by the following questions: Why after so many years of landslide mapping and investigations, landslide prevention is not good and effective as it should be? Is this

A comparative study of symptoms in multiple lacunar state and MRI findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibata, Youichi

1993-01-01

A multiple lacunar state is considered to cause gait disturbance, pseudobulbar palsy, or silent stroke. In the present study, these symptoms is multiple lacunar state and the incidences of abnormal findings on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were investigated comparatively. Thirty-eight patients (23 males and 15 females; average age 73.6 y.o.) with ischemic cerebral lesions on T 2 weighted images of MRI were studied. In the group with gait disturbance only, the incidences of widening of the ventricular system and periventricular hyperintensity (PVH) around the frontal horn were significantly high compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.005; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by anterior cerebral artery. In the group with pseudobulbar palsy only, the incidences of PVH around the posterior part of the lateral ventricle and hyperintensity area of the basal ganglion region were significantly high as compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.05; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by middle cerebral artery. (author)

A comparative study of symptoms in multiple lacunar state and MRI findings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shibata, Youichi (Saint Marianna Univ., Kawasaki (Japan). School of Medicine)

1993-10-01

A multiple lacunar state is considered to cause gait disturbance, pseudobulbar palsy, or silent stroke. In the present study, these symptoms is multiple lacunar state and the incidences of abnormal findings on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were investigated comparatively. Thirty-eight patients (23 males and 15 females; average age 73.6 y.o.) with ischemic cerebral lesions on T[sub 2] weighted images of MRI were studied. In the group with gait disturbance only, the incidences of widening of the ventricular system and periventricular hyperintensity (PVH) around the frontal horn were significantly high compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.005; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by anterior cerebral artery. In the group with pseudobulbar palsy only, the incidences of PVH around the posterior part of the lateral ventricle and hyperintensity area of the basal ganglion region were significantly high as compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.05; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by middle cerebral artery. (author).

United States and Israeli Homeland Security: A Comparative Analysis of Emergency Preparedness Efforts

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Pockett, Consuella B

2005-01-01

This paper will provide a comparative analysis of the United States (U.S.) Department of Homeland Security's Emergency Preparedness and Response directorate and the Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command...

COMPARATIVE EVALUTION OF CEPHALOSPORIN-C PRODUCTION IN SOLID STATE FERMENTATION AND SUBMERGED LIQUID CULTURE

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Mahdi Rezazarandi

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The advantages of solid state fermentation (SSF utilization in producing enzymes & secondary metabolites have been shown, whereas, submerged liquid fermentation (SLF condition has the major usage in industrial production of antibiotics. As an antibiotic of B-lactams group, cephalosporin-C (CPC is indicated due to its wide effect and broad convention in treatment of infectious diseases. Regarding industrial production of CPC regularly done in SLF condition, we compared CPC production sum in SLF and SSF conditions. In this analysis, A. chrysogenum was employed, which was inoculated to SLF and SSF, while internal fermenter conditions were totally under control. After extraction of CPC, productions in two states of SLF and SSF were compared using the cylinder plate method. According to Antibiotic assay and production amount comparison, results expressed a ratio of development of production in SSF conditions to SLF conditions. Regarding previous studies on a solid state fermenter and its advantages, in this study, convenience of SSF conditions compared to SLF conditions was experimented. Also mentioning that maintaining the condition of solid state fermenter is more comfortable and practical than liquid state fermenter, using a solid based fermenter to produce antibiotics, especially CPC, can be appropriate. Considering appropriate control conditions of SSF to produce secondary metabolites, decrease in expenses, and increase of production, taking advantage of it in order to increase production parallel to modern methods, such as genetically manipulating CPC producing microorganisms are recommended to pharmacological industries. Also, to make this method applicable, further studies in industrial criterion seem necessary.

Zika Virus Prevention: U.S. Travelers' Knowledge, Risk Perceptions, and Behavioral Intentions-A National Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Squiers, Linda; Herrington, James; Kelly, Bridget; Bann, Carla; Becker-Dreps, Sylvia; Stamm, Lola; Johnson, Mihaela; McCormack, Lauren

2018-06-01

Limited data exist about U.S. travelers' knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors related to the Zika virus (ZIKV). Using an internet research panel, in March 2017, we surveyed 1,202 Americans in the continental United States and Puerto Rico who planned to travel to a ZIKV-affected country, state, or U.S. territory in 2017. We compared levels of knowledge and perceived risk of ZIKV, and intentions to practice ZIKV prevention behaviors across respondents from three regions: Puerto Rico, at-risk states, and other states. More than 80% of respondents correctly understood that a person could acquire ZIKV through a bite from an infected mosquito, and over 64% of respondents knew that a pregnant woman could pass the virus to her fetus. Less than half of the respondents from at-risk states and other states knew that ZIKV could be transmitted sexually, as compared with three-quarters of respondents from Puerto Rico. Compared with respondents from at-risk and other states, respondents from Puerto Rico were the most knowledgeable for almost all types of knowledge assessed. Knowledge about post-travel precautions was low across all three regions. Differences in perceived risk and intentions to practice specific prevention behaviors also varied among regions. Significant gaps exist in U.S. travelers' knowledge about how to prevent ZIKV transmission both during and after travel. Input and collaboration from the travel industry, health care providers, and the media are needed to help educate travelers about how to prevent ZIKV infection and transmission.

Comparative risk perception: how the public perceives the risks and benefits of energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, K [Open Univ., Milton Keynes (UK)

1981-04-30

The view of risk perception adopted in this paper focuses on how individuals define, and hence feel about, the outcomes of a risk issue. Perception of risk is seen as encompassing a variety of attributes of a risk issue including wider beliefs that permit a risk benefit trade-off. A survey of beliefs and attitudes of the general public toward the use of various energy systems (coal, oil, hydro, solar and nuclear energy) was carried out in Austria at a time of increasing concern with energy strategies and the controversy surrounding Austria's first nuclear energy plant. The results are analysed. In general, energy systems were found to be associated with only environmental risk; however, nuclear energy was an exception in that the public, whether in favour of nuclear energy or against, believed that it is also associated with psychological and physical risk. It was also found that the policy makers underestimated the public's negative feelings about the psychological risk dimension and their belief in its association with nuclear energy.

Comparative risk perception: how the public perceives the risks and benefits of energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, K.

1981-01-01

The view of risk perception adopted in this paper focuses on how individuals define, and hence feel about, the outcomes of a risk issue. Perception of risk is seen as encompassing a variety of attributes of a risk issue including wider beliefs that permit a risk benefit trade-off. A survey of beliefs and attitudes of the general public toward the use of various energy systems (coal, oil, hydro, solar and nuclear energy) was carried out in Austria at a time of increasing concern with energy strategies and the controversy surrounding Austria's first nuclear energy plant. The results are analysed. In general, energy systems were found to be associated with only environmental risk; however, nuclear energy was an exception in that the public, whether in favour of nuclear energy or against, believed that it is also associated with psychological and physical risk. It was also found that the policy makers underestimated the public's negative feelings about the psychological risk dimension and their belief in its association with nuclear energy. (author)

National Food Safety Systems in the European Union: A Comparative Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Hadjigeorgiou

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper is a comparative survey of the National Food Safety Systems (NFSS of the European Union (EU Member-States (MS and the Central EU level. The main organizational structures of the NFSS, their legal frameworks, their responsibilities, their experiences, and challenges relating to food safety are discussed. Growing concerns about food safety have led the EU itself, its MS and non-EU countries, which are EU trade-partners, to review and modify their food safety systems. Our study suggests that the EU and 22 out of 27 Member States (MS have reorganized their NFSS by establishing a single food safety authority or a similar organization on the national or central level. In addition, the study analyzes different approaches towards the establishment of such agencies. Areas where marked differences in approaches were seen included the division of responsibilities for risk assessment (RA, risk management (RM, and risk communication (RC. We found that in 12 Member States, all three areas of activity (RA, RM, and RC are kept together, whereas in 10 Member States, risk management is functionally or institutionally separate from risk assessment and risk communication. No single ideal model for others to follow for the organization of a food safety authority was observed; however, revised NFSS, either in EU member states or at the EU central level, may be more effective from the previous arrangements, because they provide central supervision, give priority to food control programs, and maintain comprehensive risk analysis as part of their activities.

ADMINISTRATIVE SUPERVISION OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT IN THE BALTIC STATES: A COMPARATIVE VIEW

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VIOLETA KIURIENÉ

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyses models of administrative supervision of local self-government in the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of these models. The research done in this article defines the theoretical concept of administrative supervision of local self-government; gives an overview of the legislative framework underpining the key administrative supervision bodies of local self-government in the Baltic States; discusses the issue of legal regulation and the present state of administrative supervision over local self-government units in the Baltic States; gives some theoretical and practical suggestions to develop this field in the Baltic States.The research methods employed in preparation of this article are theoretical methods of analysis of scientific literature and sources, legal acts and documents as well as comparative and logical analysis, induction and generalisation. Three Baltic States similar in their area, number of inhabitants, and governmental peculiarities have been chosen for the analysis.

Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

2018-04-01

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Weed risk assessment for aquatic plants: modification of a New Zealand system for the United States.

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Doria R Gordon

Full Text Available We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand's Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders, and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31-39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species.

Tubal Factor Infertility and Perinatal Risk After Assisted Reproductive Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Kawwass, Jennifer F.; Crawford, Sara; Kissin, Dmitry M.; Session, Donna R.; Boulet, Sheree; Jamieson, Denise J.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To assess trends of tubal factor infertility and to evaluate risk of miscarriage and delivery of preterm or low birth weight (LBW) neonates among women with tubal factor infertility using assisted reproductive technology (ART). METHODS We assessed trends of tubal factor infertility among all fresh and frozen, donor, and nondonor ART cycles performed annually in the United States between 2000 and 2010 (N=1,418,774) using the National ART Surveillance System. The data set was then limited to fresh, nondonor in vitro fertilization cycles resulting in pregnancy to compare perinatal outcomes for cycles associated with tubal compared with male factor infertility. We performed bivariate and multivariable analyses controlling for maternal characteristics and calculated adjusted risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS The percentage of ART cycles associated with tubal factor infertility diagnoses decreased from 2000 to 2010 (26.02–14.81%). Compared with male factor infertility, tubal factor portended an increased risk of miscarriage (14.0% compared with 12.7%, adjusted RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04–1.12); risk was increased for both early and late miscarriage. Singleton neonates born to women with tubal factor infertility had an increased risk of pre-term birth (15.8% compared with 11.6%, adjusted RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.20–1.34) and LBW (10.9% compared with 8.5%, adjusted RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.20–1.36). Significant increases in risk persisted for early and late preterm delivery and very low and moderately LBW delivery. A significantly elevated risk was also detected for twin, but not triplet, pregnancies. CONCLUSION Tubal factor infertility, which is decreasing in prevalence in the United States, is associated with an increased risk of miscarriage, preterm birth, and LBW delivery as compared with couples with male factor infertility using ART. PMID:23812461

Risks of serious complications and death from smallpox vaccination: A systematic review of the United States experience, 1963–1968

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Aragón Tomás J

2003-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The United States (US has re-instituted smallpox vaccinations to prepare for an intentional release of the smallpox virus into the civilian population. In an outbreak, people of all ages will be vaccinated. To prepare for the impact of large-scale ring and mass vaccinations, we conducted a systematic review of the complication and mortality risks of smallpox vaccination. We summarized these risks for post-vaccinial encephalitis, vaccinia necrosum (progressive vaccinia, eczema vaccinatum, generalized vaccinia, and accidental infection (inadvertant autoinoculation. Methods Using a MEDLINE search strategy, we identified 348 articles, of which seven studies met our inclusion criteria (the number of primary vaccinations and re-vaccinations were reported, sufficient data were provided to calculate complication or case-fatality risks, and comparable case definitions were used. For each complication, we estimated of the complication, death, and case-fatality risks. Results The life-threatening complications of post-vaccinial encephalitis and vaccinia necrosum were at least 3 and 1 per million primary vaccinations, respectively. Twenty-nine percent of vaccinees with post-vaccinial encephalitis died and 15% with vaccinia necrosum died. There were no deaths among vaccinees that developed eczema vaccinatum; however, 2.3% of non-vaccinated contacts with eczema vaccinatum died. Among re-vaccinees, the risk of post-vaccinial encephalitis was reduced 26-fold, the risk of generalized vaccinia was reduced 29-fold, and the risk of eczema vaccinatum was reduced 12-fold. However, the risk reductions of accidental infection and vaccinia necrosum were modest (3.8 and 1.5 fold respectively.

Environmental risk assessment of pesticides: state of the art and prospective improvement from science.

Science.gov (United States)

Boivin, Arnaud; Poulsen, Véronique

2017-03-01

Pesticide risk assessment in the European regulatory framework is mandatory performed for active substances (pesticides) and the plant protection products they are constituents of. The aim is to guarantee that safe use can be achieved for the intended use of the product. This paper provides a feedback on the regulatory environmental risk assessment performed for pesticide registration at the EU and member state levels. The different steps of pesticide registration are addressed considering both exposure and hazard. In this paper, we focus on the environmental fate and behaviour in surface water together with the aquatic ecotoxicity of the substances to illustrate pesticide regulatory risk assessment performed for aquatic organisms. Current methodologies are presented along with highlights on potential improvements. For instance, as regards exposure aspects, moving from field based to landscape risk assessments is promising. Regarding ecotoxicology, ecological models may be valuable tools when applied to chemical risk assessment. In addition, interest and further developments to better take into account mitigation measures in risk assessment and management are also presented.

An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

1999-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

Does knowledge of teen driving risks and awareness of current law translate into support for stronger GDL provisions? Lessons learned from one state.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Brendan T; Chaudhary, Neil K; Saleheen, Hassan; Borrup, Kevin; Lapidus, Garry

2009-08-01

Many states are considering strengthening their graduated driving licensing (GDL) systems for teenage drivers but most do not know the level of public support for proposed upgrades. This study provides a method for states to identify specific demographic groups that may differ with regard to their awareness of teen driving risks, knowledge of current GDL law, and support for GDL upgrades. A 28-item questionnaire was administered to Connecticut adults by phone survey during January 2008. We collected demographic information and whether respondents understood driving risks, were aware of the current GDL system, and whether they would support GDL upgrades. The state's motor vehicle crash file (1999-2006) was used to calculate motor vehicle crash rate among 16- and 17-year-old drivers by town and correlate that with support for GDL upgrades. Eight hundred seven people were interviewed. More women than men (92% vs. 86%, p towns (38%). Two thirds supported a passenger restriction upgrade with no differences based upon sex or geographic location. There was less support for an increased penalties in Fairfield County when compared to all other counties (55% vs. 63%, p County versus all other counties (70% vs. 58%, p < .05). Parents of Connecticut teens were more knowledgeable of current law but less supportive of GDL upgrades compared to other adults. Women were more apt to favor GDL upgrades than men. This study identifies subgroups that can be targeted for prevention activities and illustrates a useful method to assess public support for GDL upgrades.

Diagnostics and Minimization of Business Risks and the State Customer in the System of Public e-Procurement

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Oksana Klyuvak

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to develop the diagnostics of the system of public e-procurement in terms of the risks of its subjects and to develop an approach to minimize the risk associated with changes in the purchase price. It is determined that the most widespread risks in the public e-procurement system in Ukraine, classified on the basis of a subjective approach, are: 1 a conspiracy of participants in the tender process; 2 insufficient level of professionalism; 3 change of purchase price. It has been determined that risk management in the system of public e-procurement should be understood as the diagnostic process (identification, analysis, evaluation, prevention, minimization and elimination of the risks of the customer, supplier and common risks in the stages of post-accession, tender and post-tandem procedures in order to balance financial and legal interests of the state and business. It is established that calculation of the correction of the purchase price (taking into account macroeconomic fluctuations should take into account the following elements (components: 1 commodity-material element (direct commodity-material expenses as of the base date (opening of a tender offer and on the date of delivery or start of implementation of the state order; 2 the human element (labor costs (average wage, qualification upgrading by the base date (opening a tender offer and as of the date of delivery or start of execution of the state order; 3 an element related to other attendance costs (costs of bank servicing of payments, the amount of duty in the case of export-import operations, logistics costs as of the base date (opening a tender offer and as of the date of delivery or start of execution of the state order; 4 fixed item (percentage in % of purchase price. The prospect of further research in this direction is to improve the system of polycriterial diagnostics of the activities of enterprises, taking into account the presented research

Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

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Cui Jia

2017-05-01

Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

2017-05-01

With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lim, S.S.; Vos, T.; Flaxman, A.D.; Danaei, G.; Shibuya, K.; Adair-Rohani, H.; Amann, M.; Anderson, H.R.; Andrews, K.G.; Aryee, M.; Atkinson, C.; Bacchus, L.J.; Bahalim, A.N.; Balakrishnan, K.; Balmes, J.; Barker-Collo, S.; Baxter, A.; Bell, M.L.; Blore, J.D.; Blyth, F.; Bonner, C.; Borges, G.; Bourne, R.; Boussinesq, M.; Brauer, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31149157X; Brooks, P.; Bruce, N.G.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Bryan-Hancock, C.; Bucello, C.; Buchbinder, R.; Bull, F.; Burnett, R.T.; Byers, T.E.; Calabria, B.; Carapetis, J.; Carnahan, E.; Chafe, Z.; Charlson, F.; Chen, H.; Chen, J.S.; Cheng, A.T.; Child, J.C.; Cohen, A.; Colson, K.E.; Cowie, B.C.; Darby, S.; Darling, S.; Davis, A.; Degenhardt, L.; Dentener, F.; Des Jarlais, D.C.; Devries, K.; Dherani, M.; Ding, E.L.; Dorsey, E.R.; Driscoll, T.; Edmond, K.; Ali, S.E.; Engell, R.E.; Erwin, P.J.; Fahimi, S.; Falder, G.; Farzadfar, F.; Ferrari, A.; Finucane, M.M.; Flaxman, S.; Fowkes, F.G.R.; Freedman, G.; Freeman, M.K.; Gakidou, E.; Ghosh, S.; Giovannucci, E.; Gmel, G.; Graham, K.; Grainger, R.; Grant, B.; Gunnell, D.; Gutierrez, H.R.; Hall, W.; Hoek, H.W.; Hogan, A.; Hosgood, H.D.; Hoy, D.; Hu, H.; Hubbell, B.J.; Hutchings, S.J.; Ibeanusi, S.E.; Jacklyn, G.L.; Jasrasaria, R.; Jonas, J.B.; Kan, H.; Kanis, J.A.; Kassebaum, N.; Kawakami, N.; Khang, Y-H.; Khatibzadeh, S.; Khoo, J-P.; de Kok, C.; Laden, F.; Lalloo, R.; Lan, Q.; Lathlean, T.; Leasher, J.L.; Leigh, J.; Li, Y.; Lin, J.K.; Lipshultz, S.E.; London, S.; Lozano, R.; Lu, Y.; Mak, J.; Malekzadeh, R.; Mallinger, L.; Marcenes, W.; March, L.; Marks, R.; Martin, R.; McGale, P.; McGrath, J.; Mehta, S.; Mensah, G.A.; Merriman, T.R.; Micha, R.; Michaud, C.; Mishra, V.; Hanafiah, K.M.; Mokdad, A.A.; Morawska, L.; Mozaffarian, D.; Murphy, T.; Naghavi, M.; Neal, B.; Nelson, P.K.; Nolla, J.M.; Norman, R.; Olives, C.; Omer, S. B; Orchard, J.; Osborne, R.; Ostro, B.; Page, A.; Pandey, K.D.; Parry, C.D.H.; Passmore, E.; Patra, J.; Pearce, N.; Pelizzari, P.M.; Petzold, M.; Phillips, M.R.; Pope, D.; Pope, C.A.; Powles, J.; Rao, M.; Razavi, H.; Rehfuess, E.A.; Rehm, J.T.; Ritz, B.; Rivara, F.P.; Roberts, T.; Robinson, C.; Rodriguez-Portales, J.A.; Romieu, I.; Room, R.; Rosenfeld, L.C.; Roy, A.; Rushton, L.; Salomon, J.A.; Sampson, U.; Sanchez-Riera, L.; Sanman, E.; Sapkota, A.; Seedat, S.; Shi, P.; Shield, K.; Shivakoti, R.; Singh, G.M.; Sleet, D.A.; Smith, E.; Smith, K.R.; Stapelberg, N.J.C.; Steenland, K.; Stöckl, H.; Stovner, L.J.; Straif, K.; Straney, L.; Thurston, G.D.; Tran, J.H.; van Dingenen, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Veerman, J.L.; Vijayakumar, L.; Weintraub, R.; Weissman, M.M.; White, R.A.; Whiteford, H.; Wiersma, S.T.; Wilkinson, J.D.; Williams, H.C.; Williams, W.; Wilson, N.; Woolf, A.D.; Yip, P.; Zielinski, J.M.; Lopez, A.D.; Murray, C.J.L.; Ezzati, M.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk

Technology assessment HTR. Part 6. The radiological risks associated with the thorium-fuelled High Temperature Reactor. A comparative risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodd, D.H.; Van Hienen, J.F.A.

1996-06-01

This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuel led LWR cycle was used. The structure of the report is as follows. In Chapter 2 the general methodology for assessing the radiological risks associated with nuclear installations is described. An overview is given of the measures commonly used to quantify these risks. In Chapter 3 an overview is given of the different stages of the reference uranium fuel led LWR cycle and the thorium fuel led HTGR cycle. In Chapter 4 a stage-by-stage analysis is given of the radiological risks associated with the two fuel cycles. Finally, in Chapter 5 an evaluation is made of the radiological risks associated with the LWR and HTGR cycles and with thorium and uranium fuels. In Appendix A the production and releases of 14 C for LWR and HTGR fuel cycle facilities is considered in detail. 11 figs., 10 tabs., 10 refs

Wind deployment in the United States: states, resources, policy, and discourse.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Elizabeth J; Stephens, Jennie C

2009-12-15

A transformation in the way the United States produces and uses energy is needed to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets for climate change mitigation. Wind power is an important low-carbon technology and the most rapidly growing renewable energy technology in the U.S. Despite recent advances in wind deployment, significant state-by-state variation in wind power distribution cannot be explained solely by wind resource patterns nor by state policy. Other factors embedded within the state-level socio-political context also contribute to wind deployment patterns. We explore this socio-political context in four U.S. states by integrating multiple research methods. Through comparative state-level analysis of the energy system, energy policy, and public discourse as represented in the media, we examine variation in the context for wind deployment in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, and Texas. Our results demonstrate that these states have different patterns of wind deployment, are engaged in different debates about wind power, and appear to frame the risks and benefits of wind power in different ways. This comparative assessment highlights the complex variation of the state-level socio-political context and contributes depth to our understanding of energy technology deployment processes, decision-making, and outcomes.

Bilingual Preschool Education in the United States and Panama: A Comparative Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Valdivia, Rebeca

This paper compares bilingual education policy and practice in Panama and the United States. Particular issues studied include the following: the social context of bilingual education in the two countries; programming and policy differences; teacher qualifications; availability of age-appropriate materials; and administrative support, level of…

Risk factors and preventive interventions for Alzheimer disease: state of the science.

Science.gov (United States)

Daviglus, Martha L; Plassman, Brenda L; Pirzada, Amber; Bell, Carl C; Bowen, Phyllis E; Burke, James R; Connolly, E Sander; Dunbar-Jacob, Jacqueline M; Granieri, Evelyn C; McGarry, Kathleen; Patel, Dinesh; Trevisan, Maurizio; Williams, John W

2011-09-01

Numerous studies have investigated risk factors for Alzheimer disease (AD). However, at a recent National Institutes of Health State-of-the-Science Conference, an independent panel found insufficient evidence to support the association of any modifiable factor with risk of cognitive decline or AD. To present key findings for selected factors and AD risk that led the panel to their conclusion. An evidence report was commissioned by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. It included English-language publications in MEDLINE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 1984 through October 27, 2009. Expert presentations and public discussions were considered. Study inclusion criteria for the evidence report were participants aged 50 years and older from general populations in developed countries; minimum sample sizes of 300 for cohort studies and 50 for randomized controlled trials; at least 2 years between exposure and outcome assessment; and use of well-accepted diagnostic criteria for AD. Included studies were evaluated for eligibility and data were abstracted. Quality of overall evidence for each factor was summarized as low, moderate, or high. Diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia in midlife, and current tobacco use were associated with increased risk of AD, and Mediterranean-type diet, folic acid intake, low or moderate alcohol intake, cognitive activities, and physical activity were associated with decreased risk. The quality of evidence was low for all of these associations. Currently, insufficient evidence exists to draw firm conclusions on the association of any modifiable factors with risk of AD.

Firearm Ownership, Storage Practices, and Suicide Risk Factors in Washington State, 2013-2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Erin Renee; Gomez, Anthony; Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali

2018-05-17

To characterize firearm ownership and storage practices in Washington State and assess their relationship with suicide risk factors. Using Washington State Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for 2013 to 2016, we conducted survey-weighted multivariable Poisson regression models to obtain prevalence ratios (PRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). Of 34 884 adult respondents, 34.3% (95% CI = 33.7%, 35.0%) reported a firearm in their household, among whom 36.6% (95% CI = 35.4%, 37.7%) stored their firearm locked and unloaded. There were no differences in mental health indicators by firearm ownership or storage practice status. Binge and chronic alcohol use were somewhat more prevalent among adults from firearm-owning households (PR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.3; PR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.4, respectively) and among those living in households not practicing safe storage (PR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.2, 1.7; PR = 1.9; 1.5, 2.3, respectively). Variability in mental health does not explain the substantial increased suicide risk among individuals in firearm-owning households. Greater prevalence of alcohol misuse among adults in firearm-owning households not practicing safe storage highlights the need for suicide prevention interventions. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print May 17, 2018: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2018.304403).

CORPORATE FINANCIAL DISTRESS AND BANKRUPTCY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS IN FRANCE, ITALY AND SPAIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Amendola

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a competing-risks approach for investigating the determinants of corporate financial distress. In particular a comparative analysis of three European markets-France, Italy and Spain–is performed in order to find out the similarities and the differences in the determinants of distress.By using the AMADEUS dataset, two possible causes of exit from the market are considered:bankruptcy and liquidation. For identifying the variables that influence the risk of leaving the market,a competing-risks model for each country is estimated and is compared with a pooled model including all the three countries. In addition, the performance of the competing-risks approach is evaluated versus the single-risk model, in which all states are considered without any distinctions.The reached results show that the competing risks approach leads to a saving in the number of selected variables that becomes more significant when the model is estimated for each country separately. Moreover, the selected variables for each country enable to identify similarities between the different exit routes across the markets. Some of the differences between Spain and the other two countries may be related to the dissimilar definition of the distress states.

Overall and Comparative Risk of Herpes Zoster With Pharmacotherapy for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Nabeel; Patel, Dhruvan; Trivedi, Chinmay; Shah, Yash; Lichtenstein, Gary; Lewis, James; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2018-01-05

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) might be at increased risk for herpes zoster infection. We sought to quantify the risk of herpes zoster in patients with IBD and evaluate the effects of IBD and IBD medications on the risk of herpes zoster. We conducted 2 retrospective studies of populations of Veterans, from January 2000 through June 2016. In study 1, we compared the incidence of herpes zoster among patients with IBD receiving 5-ASA alone vs matched patients without IBD. In study 2, we compared the incidence of herpes zoster among patients with IBD treated with only 5-ASA, with thiopurines, with antagonists of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), with a combination of thiopurines and TNF antagonists, and with vedolizumab. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% CIs for herpes zoster associated with IBD in study 1 and with different treatments in study 2. We also estimated the incidence rate of herpes zoster based on age and IBD medication subgroups. Compared to no IBD, ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) were each associated with significantly increased risk of herpes zoster infection. In multivariable Cox regression (compared to no IBD), UC, CD, or IBD treated with 5-ASA treatment alone was associated with significantly increased risk of herpes zoster, with adjusted HRs (AHR) of 1.81 for UC (95% CI, 1.56-2.11), 1.56 for CD (95% CI, 1.28-1.91), and 1.72 for treated IBD (95% CI, 1.51-1.96). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, compared to exposure to 5-ASA alone, exposure to thiopurines (AHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.31-1.65) or a combination of thiopurines and TNF antagonists (AHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.22-2.23) was associated with increased risk of herpes zoster. However, exposure to TNF antagonists alone (AHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.96-1.38) was not associated with increased risk of herpes zoster. The incidence rates of herpes zoster in all age groups and all IBD medication subgroups were substantially higher than that in the

Prevalence and risk factors for bovine brucellosis in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karina Diniz Baumgarten

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A study was conducted to verify that the State of Santa Catarina has maintained a low prevalence of bovine brucellosis, which would allow the state to move forward with implementing strategies for disease eradication. The state was divided into five regions. In each region, a predetermined number of randomly selected properties was sampled. In each property, blood samples were collected from randomly selected cows with ages equal to or greater than 24 months. Sera from the animals were submitted to a serial testing protocol, with screening by the buffered acidified antigen test and confirmation by the 2-mercaptoethanol test. In each property, a questionnaire was used to identify the risk factors associated with the disease. In the state, the prevalence rate of infected herds was 0.912% [0.297 - 2.11] and infected animals was 1.21% [0.09 - 4.97]. Relative to the earlier study in 2002, there was no difference. The risk factors associated with the condition of a herd infected with brucellosis were as follows: herd size ? 12 cows (OR = 7.47 [2.14 - 34.34] and the presence of flooded areas (OR = 5.68 [1.62 - 26.13]. In view of the low prevalence, it is recommended that the state proceed with the implementation of eradication strategies that are based on a surveillance system structured to detect and eliminate infected herds, and supported by an effective compensation fund for the replacement of seropositive animals. Additionally, the State should make a significant effort to educate and supervise producers to ensure the testing of breeding animals for brucellosis before introducing them into their properties.

Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, Peter; Eckle, Petrissa; Hirschberg, Stefan

2012-01-01

This study compared severe accident risks of fossil energy chains (coal, oil and natural gas), based on the historical experience contained in the comprehensive database ENSAD. Considered risk indicators focused on human health impacts, i.e., fatality rates and maximum consequences were calculated for a broad range of country groups. Generally, expected fatality rates were lowest for natural gas, intermediate for oil and highest for coal. Concerning maximum consequences of a single accident, natural gas also performed best, followed by coal, whereas accidents in the oil chain can claim significantly more fatalities. In general, OECD and EU 27 ranked top, while non-OECD countries and China in the case of coal were worst. The consideration of numerous additional country groups enabled a more detailed differentiation within the main bounding groups. Furthermore, differences among country groups are distinctly decreasing from coal to oil and natural gas, both for fatality rates and maximum consequences. The use of import adjusted-fatality rates indicates that fatality risks in supply countries are an essential aspect to understand how specific risk reduction strategies may affect other components of energy security, and thus tradeoffs and compromises are necessary. Finally, the proposed fatality risk score for fossil chains (FRS F ) allows a comparison of the combined accident risk for the considered fossil energy chains across individual countries, which can be visualized using risk mapping.

Vitamin D levels in patients with albinism compared with those in normally pigmented Black patients attending dermatology clinics in the Free State province, South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Walt, Johanna E C; Sinclair, Werner

2016-09-01

Associations between vitamin D deficiency and a broad variety of independent diseases, including several bone diseases, various types of cancer, autoimmune diseases, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease, have been suggested. It is therefore important to detect and treat vitamin D deficiency in high-risk groups. Because patients with albinism (PWA) practice a policy of strict sun avoidance, they may be at risk for low levels of vitamin D. This study was conducted in patients attending dermatology clinics in the Free State, South Africa, to determine sun avoidance behavior in the patient population and to compare 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) levels in PWA with those in normally pigmented Black patients attending the same clinics. Serum 25(OH)D levels were assessed in 50 PWA and 50 normally pigmented Black control subjects. Questionnaires on sun exposure avoidance behaviors were administered to all participants. The present study showed no statistically significant difference in median 25(OH)D levels between PWA and controls with normally pigmented Black skin. Rather, the study found a tendency for controls to have lower 25(OH)D levels. A total of 53% (n = 53) of all study participants (PWA and controls) had a 25(OH)D level of albinism attending dermatology clinics in the Free State, South Africa, need not be viewed as specifically at risk for low vitamin D levels. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

'Well, It's the Risk of the Unknown… Right?': A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risks and Benefits of HIV Cure Research in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubé, Karine; Taylor, Jeff; Sylla, Laurie; Evans, David; Dee, Lynda; Burton, Alasdair; Willenberg, Loreen; Rennie, Stuart; Skinner, Asheley; Tucker, Joseph D; Weiner, Bryan J; Greene, Sandra B

2017-01-01

Biomedical research towards an HIV cure is advancing in the United States and elsewhere, yet little is known about perceptions of risks and benefits among potential study participants and other stakeholders. We conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived risks and benefits of investigational HIV cure research among people living with HIV (PLWHIV), biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists. We conducted a qualitative research study using in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists in 2015-2016. We analysed interview transcripts using thematic analysis anchored in grounded theory. We conducted and analyzed 36 key informant interviews. Qualitative analysis revealed four main findings. 1) Potential HIV cure study volunteers noted needing more information and education about the potential risks of HIV cure research. 2) Biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists showed less awareness of social and financial risks of HIV cure research than PLWHIV. 3) Most respondents across the different categories of informants identified some risks that were too great to be acceptable in HIV cure research, although a subset of PLWHIV did not place an upper limit on acceptable risk. 4) PLWHIV showed a better awareness of potential psychological benefits of participating in HIV cure research than other groups of stakeholders. Our research suggests that PLWHIV have a variable understanding of the individual risks, sometimes substantial, associated with participating in biomedical HIV cure research studies. Community engagement and increased research literacy may help improve community understanding. Intensive informed consent procedures will be necessary for ethical study implementation. The current state of HIV cure research offers greater potential benefits to society than to participants. There is likely to be disagreement among regulators, researchers, clinicians

'Well, It's the Risk of the Unknown… Right?': A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risks and Benefits of HIV Cure Research in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Dubé

Full Text Available Biomedical research towards an HIV cure is advancing in the United States and elsewhere, yet little is known about perceptions of risks and benefits among potential study participants and other stakeholders. We conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived risks and benefits of investigational HIV cure research among people living with HIV (PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists.We conducted a qualitative research study using in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists in 2015-2016. We analysed interview transcripts using thematic analysis anchored in grounded theory.We conducted and analyzed 36 key informant interviews. Qualitative analysis revealed four main findings. 1 Potential HIV cure study volunteers noted needing more information and education about the potential risks of HIV cure research. 2 Biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists showed less awareness of social and financial risks of HIV cure research than PLWHIV. 3 Most respondents across the different categories of informants identified some risks that were too great to be acceptable in HIV cure research, although a subset of PLWHIV did not place an upper limit on acceptable risk. 4 PLWHIV showed a better awareness of potential psychological benefits of participating in HIV cure research than other groups of stakeholders.Our research suggests that PLWHIV have a variable understanding of the individual risks, sometimes substantial, associated with participating in biomedical HIV cure research studies. Community engagement and increased research literacy may help improve community understanding. Intensive informed consent procedures will be necessary for ethical study implementation. The current state of HIV cure research offers greater potential benefits to society than to participants. There is likely to be disagreement among regulators, researchers

The perceived health risks of indoor radon gas and overhead powerlines: a comparative multilevel approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Poortinga, Wouter; Cox, Patrick; Pidgeon, Nick F

2008-02-01

Radon and overhead powerlines are two radiation risk cases that have raised varying levels of concern among the general public and experts. Despite both involving radiation-a typically feared and unseen health hazard-individuals' perceptions of the two risk cases may invoke rather different factors. We examined individual and geographic-contextual factors influencing public perceptions of the health risks of indoor radon gas and overhead powerlines in a comparative research design, utilizing a postal questionnaire with 1,528 members of the general public (response rate 28%) and multilevel modeling techniques. This study found that beliefs about the two risk cases mainly differed according to the level of "exposure"-defined here in terms of spatial proximity. We argue that there are two alternative explanations for this pattern of findings: that risk perception itself varies directly with proximity, or that risk is more salient to concerned people in the exposed areas. We also found that while people living in high radon areas are more concerned about the risks of indoor radon gas, they find these risks more acceptable and have more trust in authorities. These results might reflect the positive effects of successive radon campaigns in high radon areas, which may have raised awareness and concern, and at the same time may have helped to increase trust by showing that the government takes the health risks of indoor radon gas seriously, suggesting that genuine risk communication initiatives may have positive impacts on trust in risk management institutions.

Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.

1984-01-01

Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

Conventional, hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric vehicles? State-based comparative carbon and energy footprint analysis in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onat, Nuri Cihat; Kucukvar, Murat; Tatari, Omer

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Driving patterns and electricity generation mix influence vehicle preferences. • EVs are found to be least carbon-intensive vehicle option in 24 states. • HEVs are found to be the most energy-efficient option in 45 states. • EVs across the board are unfavorable in the marginal electricity mix scenario. • Use of renewable energy to power EVs/PHEVs is crucial. - Abstract: Electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are often considered as better options in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption compared to internal combustion vehicles. However, making any decision among these vehicle options is not a straightforward process due to temporal and spatial variations, such as the sources of the electricity used and regional driving patterns. In this study, we compared these vehicle options across 50 states, taking into account state-specific average and marginal electricity generation mixes, regional driving patterns, and vehicle and battery manufacturing impacts. Furthermore, a policy scenario proposing the widespread use of solar energy to charge EVs and PHEVs is evaluated. Based on the average electricity generation mix scenario, EVs are found to be least carbon-intensive vehicle option in 24 states, while HEVs are found to be the most energy-efficient option in 45 states. In the marginal electricity mix scenario, widespread adoption of EVs is found to be an unwise strategy given the existing and near-future marginal electricity generation mix. On the other hand, EVs can be superior to other alternatives in terms of energy-consumption, if the required energy to generate 1 kW h of electricity is below 1.25 kW h

Predictors for readmission risk of new patients : the Nordic Comparative Study on Sectorized Psychiatry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oiesvold, T; Saarento, O; Sytema, S; Vinding, H; Gostas, G; Lonnerberg, O; Muus, S; Sandlund, M; Hansson, L

Objective: Predictors for readmission risk were investigated in this study, which forms part of the Nordic Comparative Study on Sectorized Psychiatry. Method: Included were a total of 837 consecutive 'new' patients (not in contact with the psychiatric services for at least 18 months) admitted to

Farmer perceptions of climate change risk and associated on-farm management strategies in Vermont, northeastern United States

OpenAIRE

Schattman, Rachel E.; Conner, David; Méndez, V. Ernesto

2016-01-01

Abstract Little research has been conducted on how agricultural producers in the northeastern United States conceptualize climate-related risk and how these farmers address risk through on-farm management strategies. Two years following Tropical Storm Irene, our team interviewed 15 farmers in order to investigate their perceptions of climate-related risk and how their decision-making was influenced by these perceptions. Our results show that Vermont farmers are concerned with both ecological ...

Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

2018-01-01

Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceived risk, trust in government, and response to repository siting in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraft, M.E.

1991-01-01

Conflicts over the siting of high-level radioactive waste repositories have been intense and unrelenting. Public and state opposition to implementation of the US Nuclear Waste Policy Act is tied closely to the perception of unacceptably high repository risks and to lack of trust and confidence in governmental agencies, particularly the DOE. This paper explores the relationship of perceived risk, trust in government, and opposition to repository siting in the US in an attempt to clarify the conditions of successful implementation of nuclear waste policy in the decades ahead

SECURITY RISKS, MYTHS IN A TRANSITIONING SUB-NATIONAL REGIONAL ECONOMY (CROSS RIVER STATE AND IMAGINATIVE GEOGRAPHIES OF NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. K. UKWAYI

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The emergence of an “international community” through accumulation of perceived risks that contrasts with those risks (of considerably lower levels of seriousness compared to those perceived constitutes one of the interesting (or intriguing subjects of risks and disaster studies surrounding the 9/11 era. The constructions of “imaginative geographies”, have frequently been biased in the practices that underlie the mapping of the foreign places tend to put-down the affected regions in their “paintings” for the global community. The latter are subsequently “demonized” in their ratings of competence for participating in world trade, tourism, travel, among other social/cultural, and economic and political activities. The objective of this article is to highlight how the exaggeration of risks (contrasted to actually existing/lived risks, practices that are frequently associated with such adverse “imaginative geographies” poses sub-national regional development dilemma in Nigeria’s Niger Delta. We trace the roots of adverse “imaginative geographies” of Nigeria to the Abacha dictatorship (1993-1997. Then we highlight the mixed characteristics of the Niger Delta conditions during the “return of positive image recapture” by Nigeria’s federal government (re-democratisation of the Fourth Republic, 1999-present, re-branding campaigns; as well as adverse conditions present. Most significantly, we show that despite these adversities, a combination of favorable geographical size, differentiation, sub-national regional security programme formulation and management taking aims at diversification have created “large oases” of peace and security in Cross River State, a part of the Niger Delta that has been completely unscathed by insurgencies of the nearby sub-national region and further away national origin. Apart from identifying sub-national regions qualifying for delisting from “adverse imaginative geographies” due to

Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Spiekerman, G.; Dones, R.

1997-01-01

This paper addresses one of the major limitations of the current comparative studies of environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues. The assessments concern full energy chains associated with fossil sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. A comprehensive severe accidents database has been established. Thanks to the variety of information sources used, it exhibits in comparison with other corresponding databases a far more extensive coverage of the energy-related accidents. For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic approach has been employed and extended to cover the economic consequences of power reactor accidents. Results of comparisons between the various energy chains are shown and discussed along with a number of current issues in comparative assessment of severe accidents. As opposed to the previous studies, the aim of the present work has been, to cover whenever possible, a relatively broad spectrum of damage categories of interest. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 18 refs

Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

2011-10-01

Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative study on the impact of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation in the western United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sandquist, G.M.

1979-06-01

A comparative study and quantitative assessment of the impacts, costs and benefits associated with the mining, processing and transportation of coal and uranium within the western states, specifically Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming are presented. The western states possess 49% of the US reserve coal base, 67% of the total identified reserves and 82% of the hypothetical reserves. Western coal production has increased at an average annual rate of about 22% since 1970 and should become the major US coal supplier in the 1980's. The Colorado Plateau (in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah) and the Wyoming Basin areas account for 72% of the $15/lb U/sub 3/O/sub 8/ resources, 76% of the $30/lb, and 75% of the $50/lb resources. It is apparent that the West will serve as the major supplier of domestic US coal and uranium fuels for at least the next several decades. Impacts considered are: environmental impacts, (land, water, air quality); health effects of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation; risks from transportation accidents; radiological impact of coal and uranium mining; social and economic impacts; and aesthetic impacts (land, air, noise, water, biota, and man-made objects). Economic benefits are discussed.

Comparative study on the impact of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation in the western United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1979-06-01

A comparative study and quantitative assessment of the impacts, costs and benefits associated with the mining, processing and transportation of coal and uranium within the western states, specifically Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming are presented. The western states possess 49% of the US reserve coal base, 67% of the total identified reserves and 82% of the hypothetical reserves. Western coal production has increased at an average annual rate of about 22% since 1970 and should become the major US coal supplier in the 1980's. The Colorado Plateau (in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah) and the Wyoming Basin areas account for 72% of the $15/lb U 3 O 8 resources, 76% of the $30/lb, and 75% of the $50/lb resources. It is apparent that the West will serve as the major supplier of domestic US coal and uranium fuels for at least the next several decades. Impacts considered are: environmental impacts, (land, water, air quality); health effects of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation; risks from transportation accidents; radiological impact of coal and uranium mining; social and economic impacts; and aesthetic impacts (land, air, noise, water, biota, and man-made objects). Economic benefits are discussed

Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, Richard N [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1992-07-01

In recognition of potential risks, all pesticides distributed and sold in the United States must fulfil extensive registration requirements for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Registration is a licensing procedure where industry must submit data to demonstrate the safety of pesticidal substances and products before they can be used commercially. The regulatory control of pesticides is unique among chemicals in the U.S. in that testing beyond initial registration may be imposed by the Agency throughout the commercial life of the chemical, as long as there is adequate justification. Registration requirements are gauged to the nature of potential exposures. For instance, more data are generally needed for food use registrations than for non-food uses because of direct consumption of treated foods by the whole U.S. population. Unlike pesticide practices in many countries and authorities, as in the European Community where agricultural pesticides, non-agricultural pesticides and genetically engineered microbial agents are handled by separate directives, all pesticide activities are covered in the U.S. by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. This statute covers pesticide uses on foods and animal feed and a number of non-food applications like forest and horticultural uses, residential lawn care, in-home applications, and disinfectants/sterilants. Traditional inorganic and organic chemicals are covered, as well as biological agents like pheromones. Naturally occurring and genetically altered microorganisms also come under the definition of pesticides, but multicellular animals are exempt from regulation as pesticides. Pesticide registration in the U.S. as in many other countries may be a long-term, resource intensive undertaking. Not uncommonly the process from beginning to complete registration may take 4 to 10 years and cost about $10 million. To meet the responsibilities of reviewing studies, overseeing 400 active ingredients and 35

Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, Richard N.

1992-01-01

In recognition of potential risks, all pesticides distributed and sold in the United States must fulfil extensive registration requirements for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Registration is a licensing procedure where industry must submit data to demonstrate the safety of pesticidal substances and products before they can be used commercially. The regulatory control of pesticides is unique among chemicals in the U.S. in that testing beyond initial registration may be imposed by the Agency throughout the commercial life of the chemical, as long as there is adequate justification. Registration requirements are gauged to the nature of potential exposures. For instance, more data are generally needed for food use registrations than for non-food uses because of direct consumption of treated foods by the whole U.S. population. Unlike pesticide practices in many countries and authorities, as in the European Community where agricultural pesticides, non-agricultural pesticides and genetically engineered microbial agents are handled by separate directives, all pesticide activities are covered in the U.S. by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. This statute covers pesticide uses on foods and animal feed and a number of non-food applications like forest and horticultural uses, residential lawn care, in-home applications, and disinfectants/sterilants. Traditional inorganic and organic chemicals are covered, as well as biological agents like pheromones. Naturally occurring and genetically altered microorganisms also come under the definition of pesticides, but multicellular animals are exempt from regulation as pesticides. Pesticide registration in the U.S. as in many other countries may be a long-term, resource intensive undertaking. Not uncommonly the process from beginning to complete registration may take 4 to 10 years and cost about $10 million. To meet the responsibilities of reviewing studies, overseeing 400 active ingredients and 35

Hospice utilization of Medicare beneficiaries in Hawai‘i compared to other states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deborah Taira

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The objective is to examine hospice utilization among Medicare beneficiaries in Hawai‘i compared to other states. Data were from the 2014 Medicare Hospice Utilization and Payment Public Use File, which included information on 4,025 hospice providers, more than 1.3 million hospice beneficiaries, and over $15 billion in Medicare payments. Multivariable linear regression models were estimated to compare hospice utilization in Hawai‘i to that of other states. Control variables included age, gender, and type of Medicare coverage. Medicare beneficiaries using hospice in Hawai‘i differed significantly from beneficiaries in other states in several ways. Hawai‘i beneficiaries were more likely to be Asian (57% vs. 1%, p < .001 and “other race” (10% vs. 0.1%, p < .001, and less likely to be White (28% vs. 84%, p < .001. Hawai‘i beneficiaries were also more likely to have Medicare Advantage (55% vs. 30%, p = .05. Regarding primary diagnoses, hospice users in Hawai‘i were significantly more likely to have a primary diagnosis of stroke (11% vs. 8%, p = .03 and less likely to have respiratory disease (5% vs. 11%, p = .003. In addition, hospice users in Hawai‘i were more likely to use services in their homes (74% vs. 52%, p = .03. Hawai‘i hospice users were also less likely to die while in hospice (42% vs. 47%, p = .002. Characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries in Hawai‘i differ from those in other states, regarding demographic characteristics, type of coverage, primary diagnoses, likelihood of using services in their homes, and death rates. Further research is needed to better understand factors affecting these differences and whether these differences warrant changes in policy or practice.

Managing wetlands for disaster risk reduction: A case study of the eastern Free State, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes A. Belle

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article investigated the knowledge and practice of a nature-based solution to reduce disaster risks of drought, veld fires and floods using wetlands in the eastern Free State, South Africa. A mixed research method approach was used to collect primary data using three data collection tools, namely questionnaires, interviews and field observations. Ninety-five wetlands under communal and private ownership as well as a few in protected areas were sampled, with their users completing questionnaires. The study showed that communal wetlands were more degraded, while wetlands in protected areas and in private commercial farms were in a good ecological state. An extensive literature review reveals that healthy wetlands are effective buffers in reducing disaster risks such as drought, veld fires and floods which are recurrent in the study area. Therefore, through better land-use and management practices, backed by education and awareness, wetlands could be good instruments to mitigate recurrent natural hazards in the agriculturally dominated eastern Free State in South Africa.

"Unnatural Fornication" Cases Under State-Socialism: A Hungarian-Slovenian Comparative Social-Historical Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Takács, Judit; Kuhar, Roman; Tóth, Tamás P

2017-01-01

This comparative social-historical study examines different versions of state-socialist body politics manifested in Hungary and Slovenia mainly during the 1950s by using archive material of "unnatural fornication" court cases. By analyzing the available Hungarian "természet elleni fajtalanság" and Slovenian "nenaravno občevanje" court cases, we can shed light on how the defendants were treated by the police and the judiciary. On the basis of these archive data that have never been examined before from these angles, we can construct an at least partial picture of the practices and consequences of state surveillance of same-sex-attracted men during state-socialism. The article explores the functioning of state-socialist social control mechanisms directed at nonnormative sexualities that had long-lasting consequences on the social representation of homosexuality in both countries.

Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Lauren A; Konschnik, Katherine E; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O; Kiesecker, Joseph; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James E

2017-03-07

Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m 3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m 3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m 3 . Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

Quality assessment of state land internal audit agency of Ukraine based on risk-oriented approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N.G. Vugovska

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The article stipulates that in modern conditions of development and reform of the national system of state financial control to the fore the issue of quality, which is an integral part of - or the provision of a service or product produced. In the context of our study on the evaluation of the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency, is the efficiency of its operation. The authors have developed scientific and methodical approach to assessing the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency of Ukraine by specifying the list of evaluation criteria and the implementation of risk-based model selection controlled entities, which allowed to determine the potential risk of financial irregularities and frequency of inspections by the State Financial Inspection. Determined that the planned inspections of the state Land Agency should be not less than once every two years. Applying the above approach will reduce the number of violations in budgetary institutions, improve the quality control organization by the internal audit work, increase the responsibility of the head of an effective, legitimate and proper use of funds. The authors were asked to form a report on the results of the internal audit quality in budgetary institutions and determined that for the cooperation of internal audit bodies of the State financial inspection need to be able to use the latest internal audit report to provide recommendations to improve the functioning of the internal control systems in controlled entities.

Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

Dual diagnosis vs. triple diagnosis in HIV: a comparative study to evaluate the differences in psychopathology and suicidal risk in HIV positive male subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, M; Kumar, K; Garg, P D

2013-12-01

The problem of triple diagnosis of HIV, substance abuse and psychiatric disorders is a complex one with difficult solutions. HIV disease progression is affected by substance use as well as psychiatric illness burden due to both direct as well as indirect factors. Continuing substance abuse with poor drug adherence coexists with psychiatric disorders leading to increased morbidity and mortality. A total of 100 HIV positive subjects comprising of two groups each having 50 subjects with and without substance abuse were assessed using detailed history, mental state examination, WHO schedule for clinical assessment in neuropsychiatry (SCAN 2.0) and Beck's Scale for Suicidal Ideation (BSS). Statistical analysis used Chi-Square test, Fischer's exact test, Student's t-test, Pearson's correlation coefficient, univariate and multiple regression analysis, univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis. p-Valueabuse, as compared to subjects without substance use. Suicidal risk was significantly increased (pabuse did not increase the risk. Substance abuse inflicts a much greater burden on HIV positive individuals as compared to subjects without substance use. Concomitant substance abuse resulted in significantly increased duration of illness and psychiatric morbidity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ascertaining severe perineal trauma and associated risk factors by comparing birth data with multiple sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Ampt, Amanda J; Ford, Jane B

2015-09-30

Population data are often used to monitor severe perineal trauma trends and investigate risk factors. Within New South Wales (NSW), two different datasets can be used, the Perinatal Data Collection ('birth' data) or a linked dataset combining birth data with the Admitted Patient Data Collection ('hospital' data). Severe perineal trauma can be ascertained by birth data alone, or by hospital International Classification of Diseases Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) diagnosis and procedure coding in the linked dataset. The aim of this study was to compare rates and risk factors for severe perineal trauma using birth data alone versus using linked data. The study population consisted of all vaginal births in NSW between 2001 and 2011. Perineal injury coding in birth data was revised in 2006, so data were analysed separately for 2001-06 and 2006-11. Rates of severe perineal injury over time were compared in birth data alone versus linked data. Kappa and agreement statistics were calculated. Risk factor distributions (maternal age, primiparity, instrumental birth, birthweight ≥4 kg, Asian country of birth and episiotomy) were compared between women with severe perineal trauma identified by birth data alone, and those identified by linked data. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of severe perineal trauma. Among 697 202 women with vaginal births, 2.1% were identified with severe perineal trauma by birth data alone, and 2.6% by linked data. The rate discrepancy was higher among earlier data (1.7% for birth data, 2.4% for linked data). Kappa for earlier data was 0.78 (95% CI 0.78, 0.79), and 0.89 (95% CI 0.89, 0.89) for more recent data. With the exception of episiotomy, differences in risk factor distributions were small, with similar aORs. The aOR of severe perineal trauma for episiotomy was higher using linked data (1.33, 95% CI 1.27, 1.40) compared with birth data (1.02, 95% CI 0.97, 1.08). Although discrepancies

THE RISKS OF A TOO QUICK EURO ADOPTION BY THE EU MEMBER STATES. THE CASE OF PORTUGAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristian Stefan Ovidiu

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this article we present the risks faced by the new countries that have joined the European Union, and which also desire to adopt the euro currency as quickly as possible. We will analyze the existing literature regarding the ways these risks manifest themselves, depending on the economic conditions present in these countries. The risks are mostly caused by an incomplete fulfillment of the optimum currency area conditions, especially the ones regarding the synchronization of the business cycles, the existence of mitigation mechanisms in the case of asymmetric shocks, and to a lesser extent, the insufficient flexibility of the European labor markets. In addition, because there are different economic conditions between the countries that plan on introducing the euro currency and the ones that already had, mostly related to a lower economic development and lower prices, there are specific risks that affect the former countries. Moreover, the benefits of entering the EMU greater monetary stability, reduced transaction costs, lower exchange rate volatility and a decrease of the interest rates can in some specific cases become also costs. In order to quantify all these elements, we have constructed a case study of Portugal, which has entered the EMU in the first wave. We have determined that Portugal's experience after the euro introduction was a negative one, when compared with the previous period, because the convergence process did not actually happened, as expected. Not only that, but the economic differences between Portugal and the other EMU countries deepened, and the country's fiscal situation also deteriorated badly in all these years, up to the point where Portugal was forced to ask for external help. The case of Portugal is very important for the countries that are eager to adopt the common currency without first achieving a sustainable economic development, through increasing labor productivity and exports. It shows that fulfilling the

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-05-15

Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans

2008-01-01

Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)

Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans [University of Edinburgh, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, The Management School (United Kingdom)

2008-11-15

Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)

Driving behaviours, traffic risk and road safety: comparative study between Malaysia and Singapore.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Saif ur Rehman; Khalifah, Zainab Binti; Munir, Yasin; Islam, Talat; Nazir, Tahira; Khan, Hashim

2015-01-01

The present study aims to investigate differences in road safety attitude, driver behaviour and traffic risk perception between Malaysia and Singapore. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted among a sample of Singaporean (n = 187) and Malaysian (n = 313) road users. The data was analysed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling applied to measure comparative fit indices of Malaysian and Singaporean respondents. The results show that the perceived traffic risk of Malaysian respondents is higher than Singaporean counterparts. Moreover, the structural equation modelling has confirmed perceived traffic risk performing the role of full mediation between perceived driving skills and perceived road safety for both the countries, while perceived traffic skills was found to perform the role of partial mediation between aggression and anxiety, on one hand, and road safety, on the other hand, in Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, in both countries, a weak correlation between perceived driving skills, aggression and anxiety with perceived road safety was found, while a strong correlation exists with traffic risk perception. The findings of this study have been discussed in terms of theoretical, practical and conceptual implications for both scholars and policy-makers to better understand the young drivers' attitude and behaviour relationship towards road safety measures with a view to future research.

Comparing the mortality risks of nursing professionals with diabetes and general patients with diabetes: a nationwide matched cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsiu-Ling Huang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Nursing professionals have received comprehensive medical education and training. However, whether these medical professionals exhibit positive patient care attitudes and behaviors and thus reduce mortality risks when they themselves are diagnosed with chronic diseases is worth exploring. This study compared the mortality risks of female nurses and general patients with diabetes and elucidated factors that caused this difference. Methods A total of 510,058 female patients newly diagnosed with diabetes between 1998 and 2006 as recorded in the National Health Insurance Research Database were the participants in this study. Nurses with diabetes and general population with diabetes were matched with propensity score method in a 1:10 ratio. The participants were tracked from the date of diagnosis to 2009. The Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to compare the mortality risks in the two groups. Results Nurses were newly diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age compared with the general public (42.01 ± 12.03 y vs. 59.29 ± 13.11 y. Nevertheless, the matching results showed that nurses had lower mortality risks (HR: 0.53, 95 % CI: 0.38–0.74 and nurses with diabetes in the < 35 and 35–44 age groups exhibited significantly lower mortality risks compared with general patients (HR: 0.23 and 0.36. A further analysis indicated that the factors that influenced the mortality risks of nurses with diabetes included age, catastrophic illnesses, and the severity of diabetes complications. Conclusion Nurses with diabetes exhibited lower mortality risks possibly because they had received comprehensive medical education and training, may had more knowledge regarding chronic disease control and change their lifestyles. The results can serve as a reference for developing heath education, and for preventing occupational hazards in nurses.

Contents of risk assessments to support the retrieval and closure of tanks for the Washington State Department of Ecology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MANN, F.M.

2003-01-01

Before the Integrated Mission Acceleration Plan can be performed, risk assessments of various options must be performed for ORP, DOE Headquarters, and the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This document focuses on the risk assessments for Ecology

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

2014-01-01

Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.

Feasible sets, comparative risk aversion, and comparative uncertainty aversion in bargaining

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driesen, B.W.I.; Lombardi, M.; Peters, H.J.M.

2015-01-01

We study feasible sets of the bargaining problem under two different assumptions: the players are subjective expected utility maximizers or the players are Choquet expected utility maximizers. For the latter case, we consider the effects on bargaining solutions when players become more risk averse

A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cerović Julija

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The concept of value at risk gives estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. The motivation for this analysis lies in the desire to devote necessary attention to risks in Montenegro, and to approach to quantifying and managing risk more thoroughly. Objectives: This paper considers adequacy of the most recent approaches for quantifying market risk, especially of methods that are in the basis of extreme value theory, in Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether extreme value theory outperforms econometric and quantile evaluation of VaR in emerging stock markets such as Montenegrin market. Methods/Approach: Daily return of Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January, 2004 - February, 2014. Value at Risk results based on GARCH models, quantile estimation and extreme value theory are compared. Results: Results of the empirical analysis show that the assessments of Value at Risk based on extreme value theory outperform econometric and quantile evaluations. Conclusions: It is obvious that econometric evaluations (ARMA(2,0- GARCH(1,1 and RiskMetrics proved to be on the lower bound of possible Value at Risk movements. Risk estimation on emerging markets can be focused on methodology using extreme value theory that is more sophisticated as it has been proven to be the most cautious model when dealing with turbulent times and financial turmoil.

A comparative study on the edge states in phosphorene quantum dots and rings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, Z.T., E-mail: jiangzhaotan@bit.edu.cn; Liang, F.X.; Zhang, X.D.

2017-01-30

Using the tight-binding Hamiltonian approach, we comparatively investigate the energy spectrums of triangular zigzag phosphorene quantum dots (PQDs) and rings (PQRs), as well as their potential applications. In comparison with the outer edge states in the PQD, new extra inner edge states can be produced in the PQR by its internal hole. A transition from the uncoupled to coupled edge states can be induced by decreasing the width between the outer and inner edges of the PQR. Also, the edge states in PQD/PQR are all anisotropically localized in one side, rather than three sides as in triangular graphene quantum dots (QDs) and rings (QRs). Furthermore, the PQD/PQR energy levels can be anisotropically manipulated by the external electric fields and strains, clearly demonstrating their potential applications in field effect transistors or electromechanical devices. In the meanwhile, we also consider the electron probability distributions corresponding to the different energy levels, clearly exposing the characteristics of the PQD/PQR energy levels. The comparison between the asymmetrical triangular PQDs/PQRs and the symmetrical triangular QDs/QRs in graphene should be instructive for understanding the similar triangular QDs/QRs in other two-dimensional layered materials, as well as other types of QDs/QRs of different shapes. - Highlights: • We make a comparative study on the energy levels of the phosphorene quantum dots and rings. • The energy levels can be anisotropically controlled by the electric field and the strains, different from those in graphene counterparts. • The edge states in phosphorene triangular quantum dot and rings are anisotropic. • A helpful reference for understanding phosphorene nanostructures of other shapes and designing devices.

Visual performance in preterm infants with brain injuries compared with low-risk preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Merçè; Forns, Maria; Calderón, Caterina; Reinoso, Marta; Gargallo, Estrella

2012-08-01

Neonatal brain injuries are the main cause of visual deficit produced by damage to posterior visual pathways. While there are several studies of visual function in low-risk preterm infants or older children with brain injuries, research in children of early age is lacking. To assess several aspects of visual function in preterm infants with brain injuries and to compare them with another group of low-risk preterm infants of the same age. Forty-eight preterm infants with brain injuries and 56 low-risk preterm infants. The ML Leonhardt Battery of Optotypes was used to assess visual functions. This test was previously validated at a post-menstrual age of 40 weeks in newborns and at 30-plus weeks in preterm infants. The group of preterm infants with brain lesions showed a delayed pattern of visual functions in alertness, fixation, visual attention and tracking behavior compared to infants in the healthy preterm group. The differences between both groups, in the visual behaviors analyzed were around 30%. These visual functions could be identified from the first weeks of life. Our results confirm the importance of using a straightforward screening test with preterm infants in order to assess altered visual function, especially in infants with brain injuries. The findings also highlight the need to provide visual stimulation very early on in life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary risk factors for colon and rectal cancers: a comparative case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wakai, Kenji; Hirose, Kaoru; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Kuriki, Kiyonori; Suzuki, Takeshi; Kato, Tomoyuki; Hirai, Takashi; Kanemitsu, Yukihide; Tajima, Kazuo

2006-05-01

In Japan, the incidence rate of colon cancer has more rapidly increased than that of rectal cancer. The differential secular trends may be due to different dietary factors in the development of colon and rectal cancers. To compare dietary risk factors between colon and rectal cancers, we undertook a case-control study at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Japan. Subjects were 507 patients with newly diagnosed colon (n = 265) and rectal (n = 242) cancers, and 2,535 cancer-free outpatients (controls). Intakes of nutrients and food groups were assessed with a food frequency questionnaire, and multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic models. We found a decreasing risk of colon cancer with increasing intakes of calcium and insoluble dietary fiber; the multivariate ORs across quartiles of intake were 1.00, 0.90, 0.80, and 0.67 (trend p = 0.040), and 1.00, 0.69, 0.64, and 0.65 (trend p = 0.027), respectively. For rectal cancer, a higher consumption of carotene and meat was associated with a reduced risk; the corresponding ORs were 1.00, 1.10, 0.71, and 0.70 for carotene (trend p = 0.028), and 1.00, 0.99, 0.68, and 0.72 for meat (trend p = 0.036). Carbohydrate intake was positively correlated with the risk of rectal cancer (ORs over quartiles: 1.00, 1.14, 1.42, and 1.54; trend p = 0.048). This association was stronger in women, while fat consumption was inversely correlated with the risk of female colon and rectal cancers. Dietary risk factors appear to considerably differ between colon and rectal cancers.

Small Business Contracting in the United States and Europe: A Comparative Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-01

unlimited. Prepared for: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943 SMALL BUSINESS CONTRACTING IN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE: A...COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT by Max Kidalov, Assistant Professor Procurement Law & Policy March 2010 Graduate School of Business & Public Policy...Daniel T. Oliver Leonard A. Ferrari President Executive Vice President and Provost The report entitled “Small Business Contracting in

Sectoral risk research about input-output structure of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Mao

2018-02-01

There exist rare researches about economic risk in sectoral level, which is significantly important for risk prewarning. This paper employed status coefficient to measure the symmetry of economic subnetwork, which is negatively correlated with sectoral risk. Then, we do empirical research in both cross section and time series dimensions. In cross section dimension, we study the correlation between sectoral status coefficient and sectoral volatility, earning rate and Sharpe ratio respectively in the year 2015. Next, in the perspective of time series, we first investigate the correlation change between sectoral status coefficient and annual total output from 1997 to 2015. Then, we divide the 71 sectors in America into agriculture, manufacturing, services and government, compare the trend terms of average sectoral status coefficients of the four industries and illustrate the causes behind it. We also find obvious abnormality in the sector of housing. At last, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the federal government.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

2016-01-01

inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group......, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk...... pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood...

Comparative Analysis and Considerations for PV Interconnection Standards in the United States and China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2017-01-01

The main objectives of this report are to evaluate China's photovoltaic (PV) interconnection standards and the U.S. counterparts and to propose recommendations for future revisions to these standards. This report references the 2013 report Comparative Study of Standards for Grid-Connected PV System in China, the U.S. and European Countries, which compares U.S., European, and China's PV grid interconnection standards; reviews various metrics for the characterization of distribution network with PV; and suggests modifications to China's PV interconnection standards and requirements. The recommendations are accompanied by assessments of four high-penetration PV grid interconnection cases in the United States to illustrate solutions implemented to resolve issues encountered at different sites. PV penetration in China and in the United States has significantly increased during the past several years, presenting comparable challenges depending on the conditions of the grid at the point of interconnection; solutions are generally unique to each interconnected PV installation or PV plant.

Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

2011-12-01

The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

Comparative analysis of three screening instruments for autism spectrum disorder in toddlers at high risk.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterling, I.J.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Gaag, R.J. van der; Visser, J.C.; Dietz, C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

2009-01-01

Several instruments have been developed to screen for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in high-risk populations. However, few studies compare different instruments in one sample. Data were gathered from the Early Screening of Autistic Traits Questionnaire, Social Communication Questionnaire,

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

2018-01-01

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Set Defuzzification Methods in the Context of Ecological Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Fuzzy inference systems are widely used in various areas of human activity. Their most widespread use lies in the field of fuzzy control of technical devices of different kind. Another direction of using fuzzy inference systems is modelling and assessment of different kind of risks under insufficient or missing objective initial data. Fuzzy inference is concluded by the procedure of defuzzification of the resulting fuzzy sets. A large number of techniques for implementing the defuzzification procedure are available nowadays. The paper presents a comparative analysis of some widespread methods of fuzzy set defuzzification, and proposes the most appropriate methods in the context of ecological risk assessment.

Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

1996-01-01

Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

Safety and efficacy of hysteroscopic sterilization compared with laparoscopic sterilization: an observational cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Jialin; Pfeifer, Samantha; Schlegel, Peter

2015-01-01

Objective To compare the safety and efficacy of hysteroscopic sterilization with the “Essure” device with laparoscopic sterilization in a large, all-inclusive, state cohort. Design Population based cohort study. Settings Outpatient interventional setting in New York State. Participants Women undergoing interval sterilization procedure, including hysteroscopic sterilization with Essure device and laparoscopic surgery, between 2005 and 2013. Main outcomes measures Safety events within 30 days of procedures; unintended pregnancies and reoperations within one year of procedures. Mixed model accounting for hospital clustering was used to compare 30 day and 1 year outcomes, adjusting for patient characteristics and other confounders. Time to reoperation was evaluated using frailty model for time to event analysis. Results We identified 8048 patients undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization and 44 278 undergoing laparoscopic sterilization between 2005 and 2013 in New York State. There was a significant increase in the use of hysteroscopic procedures during this period, while use of laparoscopic sterilization decreased. Patients undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization were older than those undergoing laparoscopic sterilization and were more likely to have a history of pelvic inflammatory disease (10.3% v 7.2%, P<0.01), major abdominal surgery (9.4% v 7.9%, P<0.01), and cesarean section (23.2% v 15.4%, P<0.01). At one year after surgery, hysteroscopic sterilization was not associated with a higher risk of unintended pregnancy (odds ratio 0.84 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.12)) but was associated with a substantially increased risk of reoperation (odds ratio 10.16 (7.47 to 13.81)) compared with laparoscopic sterilization. Conclusions Patients undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization have a similar risk of unintended pregnancy but a more than 10-fold higher risk of undergoing reoperation compared with patients undergoing laparoscopic sterilization. Benefits and risks of both procedures

Skin Cancer Risk in Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplant Recipients Compared With Background Population and Renal Transplant Recipients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Omland, Silje Haukali; Gniadecki, Robert; Hædersdal, Merete

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE: While a high risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer is well recognized in solid-organ transplant recipients, the risk of skin cancer in hematopoietic stem-cell transplant (HSCT) recipients has not been extensively studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of cutaneous cancer in HSCT recipients...... autologous) from 1999 through 2014, 4789 RTRs from 1976 through 2014, and 10 age- and sex-matched nontransplanted individuals for each of the groups from the background population. Person-years at risk were calculated from the time of study inclusion until first cutaneous cancer. To compare the risk of skin...... cancer between transplant recipients and background population, we used a stratified proportional hazard regression model for hazard ratio (HR) estimations. By use of the cumulative incidence, we estimated 5- and 10-year risks of skin cancers. All RTR and HSCT recipients were treated and followed up...

Towards a Comparative Index of Seaport Climate-Risk: Development of Indicators from Open Data

Science.gov (United States)

McIntosh, R. D.; Becker, A.

2016-02-01

Seaports represent an example of coastal infrastructure that is at once critical to global trade, constrained to the land-sea interface, and exposed to weather and climate hazards. Seaports face impacts associated with projected changes in sea level, sedimentation, ocean chemistry, wave dynamics, temperature, precipitation, and storm frequency and intensity. Port decision-makers have the responsibility to enhance resilience against these impacts. At the multi-port (regional or national) scale, policy-makers must prioritize adaptation efforts to maximize the efficiency of limited physical and financial resources. Prioritization requires comparing across seaports, and comparison requires a standardized assessment method, but efforts to date have either been limited in scope to exposure-only assessments or limited in scale to evaluate one port in isolation from a system of ports. In order to better understand the distribution of risk across ports and to inform transportation resilience policy, we are developing a comparative assessment method to measure the relative climate-risk faced by a sample of ports. Our mixed-methods approach combines a quantitative, data-driven, indicator-based assessment with qualitative data collected via expert-elicitation. In this presentation, we identify and synthesize over 120 potential risk indicators from open data sources. Indicators represent exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity for a pilot sample of 20 ports. Our exploratory data analysis, including Principal Component Analysis, uncovered sources of variance between individual ports and between indicators. Next steps include convening an expert panel representing the perspectives of multiple transportation system agencies to find consensus on a suite of robust indicators and metrics for maritime freight node climate risk assessment. The index will be refined based on expert feedback, the sample size expanded, and additional indicators sought from closed data sources

Comparison of cumulative false-positive risk of screening mammography in the United States and Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Katja Kemp

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION: In the United States (US), about one-half of women screened with annual mammography have at least one false-positive test after ten screens. The estimate for European women screened ten times biennially is much lower. We evaluate to what extent screening interval, mammogram type......=400,204), between 1991-2012 and 1993-2013, respectively. Model-based cumulative false-positive risks were computed for the entire sample, using two statistical methods (Hubbard Njor) previously used to estimate false-positive risks in the US and Europe. RESULTS: Empirical cumulative risk of at least...... one false-positive test after eight (annual or biennial) screens was 41.9% in BCSC, 16.1% in Copenhagen, and 7.4% in Funen. Variation in screening interval and mammogram type did not explain the differences by country. Using the Hubbard method, the model-based cumulative risks after eight screens...

Food production in Poland, compared to selected European Union Member States

OpenAIRE

Wrzesińska-Kowal, Joanna; Drabarczyk, Katarzyna

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the food sector in Poland during 2008-2012, compared to selected European Union Member States, and to define the factors affecting growth of the sector under consideration. The structure of sold production of the Polish food industry and the levels of food production in Europe are presented in the paper. Discussion covers quantitative fluctuations in the number of businesses and production value of food products, as well as employment and salaries ...

Comparing pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies in Croatia to the European Union Member States.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Habl, Claudia; Bogut, Martina; Voncina, Luka

2011-04-15

To perform a comparative analysis of the pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement systems in Croatia and the 27 European Union (EU) Member States. Knowledge about the pharmaceutical systems in Croatia and the 27 EU Member States was acquired by literature review and primary research with stakeholders. Pharmaceutical prices are controlled at all levels in Croatia, which is also the case in 21 EU Member States. Like many EU countries, Croatia also applies external price referencing, i.e., compares prices with other countries. While the wholesale remuneration by a statutorily regulated linear mark-up is applied in Croatia and in several EU countries, the pharmacy compensation for dispensing reimbursable medicines in the form of a flat rate service fee in Croatia is rare among EU countries, which usually apply a linear or regressive pharmacy mark-up scheme. Like in most EU countries, the Croatian Social Insurance reimburses specific medicines at 100%, whereas patients are charged co-payments for other reimbursable medicines. Criteria for reimbursement include the medicine's importance from the public health perspective, its therapeutic value, and relative effectiveness. In Croatia and in many EU Member States, reimbursement is based on a reference price system. The Croatian pharmaceutical system is similar to those in the EU Member States. Key policies, like external price referencing and reference price systems, which have increasingly been introduced in EU countries are also applied in Croatia and serve the same purpose: to ensure access to medicines while containing public pharmaceutical expenditure.