WorldWideScience

Sample records for states comparative risk

  1. The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goodarz Danaei

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the number of deaths caused by risk factors is needed for health policy and priority setting. Our aim was to estimate the mortality effects of the following 12 modifiable dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors in the United States (US using consistent and comparable methods: high blood glucose, low-density lipoprotein (LDL cholesterol, and blood pressure; overweight-obesity; high dietary trans fatty acids and salt; low dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 fatty acids (seafood, and fruits and vegetables; physical inactivity; alcohol use; and tobacco smoking.We used data on risk factor exposures in the US population from nationally representative health surveys and disease-specific mortality statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics. We obtained the etiological effects of risk factors on disease-specific mortality, by age, from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies that had adjusted (i for major potential confounders, and (ii where possible for regression dilution bias. We estimated the number of disease-specific deaths attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factor exposure, by age and sex. In 2005, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure were responsible for an estimated 467,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 436,000-500,000 and 395,000 (372,000-414,000 deaths, accounting for about one in five or six deaths in US adults. Overweight-obesity (216,000; 188,000-237,000 and physical inactivity (191,000; 164,000-222,000 were each responsible for nearly 1 in 10 deaths. High dietary salt (102,000; 97,000-107,000, low dietary omega-3 fatty acids (84,000; 72,000-96,000, and high dietary trans fatty acids (82,000; 63,000-97,000 were the dietary risks with the largest mortality effects. Although 26,000 (23,000-40,000 deaths from ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and diabetes were averted by current alcohol use, they were outweighed by 90,000 (88,000-94,000 deaths from

  2. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  3. Risk of cancer in retransplants compared to primary kidney transplants in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalil, Roberto S; Lynch, Charles F; Engels, Eric A

    2015-10-01

    Recipients of kidney transplantation have elevated risk of developing cancer. There are limited data on cancer risk in recipients of kidney retransplantation. We used data from the Transplant Cancer Match Study, which links the U.S. transplant registry with 15 cancer registries. Cancer incidence in recipients of kidney retransplantation and primary kidney transplants was compared utilizing Poisson regression, adjusting for demographic and medical characteristics. We assessed 109 224 primary recipients and 6621 retransplants. Compared to primary recipients, retransplants were younger (median age 40 vs. 46 yr), had higher PRA, and more often received induction with polyclonal antibodies (43% vs. 25%). A total of 5757 cancers were observed in primary recipients and 245 in retransplants. Overall cancer risk was similar in retransplants compared with primary recipients (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.93-1.20, adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, PRA, and use of polyclonal induction). However, renal cell carcinoma (RCC) occurred in excess among retransplants (adjusted IRR 2.03, 95% CI 1.45-2.77), based on 514 cases in primary recipients and 43 cases in retransplants. Overall cancer risk did not differ in retransplants compared to primary recipients. Increased risk of RCC may be explained by the presence of acquired cystic kidney disease, which is more likely to develop with additional time with kidney disease and time spent on dialysis waiting for retransplantation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Comparing School-Based Teen Pregnancy Prevention Programming: Mixed Outcomes in an At-Risk State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Roy F.; Merritt, Breanca T.; Fluhr, Janene; Williams, Jean M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study is to compare the effectiveness of a national comprehensive teen pregnancy prevention (TPP) intervention to a national abstinence-only TPP intervention on middle school students' knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to teen sexual behaviors in a state with high teen birth rates. Methods: Pre- and…

  5. The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankoff, Greg; Hilhorst, Dorothea

    2009-10-01

    It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary-which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management-different realities continue to make for different responses.

  6. Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yekaterina Y. Kontar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

  7. Self-other differences in H1N1 flu risk perception in a global context: a comparative study between the United States and China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Gang Kevin; Zhang, Jueman Mandy; Chu, Kejun Rebecca; Shen, Guolin

    2014-01-01

    Extending research on self-other differences in perception to a global health risk, this study compares U.S. and Chinese college students' perceived H1N1 flu risk at four levels: personal, group, societal, and global. It also examines how personal experience, interpersonal communication, traditional and Internet-based media, and self-efficacy affect perception at four levels, as well as the self-other differences between the personal level and each of the other three levels. An online survey in both countries reveals an "ascending pattern," showing higher perceived risk for others than for selves. Chinese respondents perceive higher risk than U.S. respondents at all levels. Interpersonal communication predicts risk perception at four levels in the United States and at the group and societal levels in China. New media exposure exerts influence on all but the group level in China, while social networking sites (SNS) exposure predicts group- and societal-level risk perception in the United States. The overall attention paid to H1N1 information in the media affects all levels in both countries. Interaction between media exposure and attention is influential at all levels in the United States. Self-efficacy is negatively associated with risk perception in China except at the global level. Attention to media in the United States, and SNS exposure in China, explain the self-other differences in three comparisons, along with self-efficacy, which decreases the self-other gap in the United States while increasing the gap in China.

  8. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  9. International comparative analyses of healthcare risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Niuyun; Wang, Li; Zhou, Jun; Yuan, Qiang; Zhang, Zongjiu; Li, Youping; Liang, Minghui; Cheng, Lan; Gao, Guangming; Cui, Xiaohui

    2011-02-01

    Interpretation of the growing body of global literature on health care risk is compromised by a lack of common understanding and language. This series of articles aims to comprehensively compare laws and regulations, institutional management, and administration of incidence reporting systems on medical risk management in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Taiwan, so as to provide evidence and recommendations for health care risk management policy in China. We searched the official websites of the healthcare risk management agencies of the four countries and one district for laws, regulatory documents, research reports, reviews and evaluation forms concerned with healthcare risk management and assessment. Descriptive comparative analysis was performed on relevant documents. A total of 146 documents were included in this study, including 2 laws (1.4%), 17 policy documents (11.6%), 41 guidance documents (28.1%), 37 reviews (25.3%), and 49 documents giving general information (33.6%). The United States government implemented one law and one rule of patient safety management, while the United Kingdom and Australia each issued professional guidances on patient safety improvement. The four countries implemented patient safety management policy on four different levels: national, state/province, hospital, and non-governmental organization. The four countries and one district adopted four levels of patient safety management, and the administration modes can be divided into an "NGO-led mode" represented by the United States and Canada and a "government-led mode" represented by the United Kingdom, Australia, and Taiwan. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

  10. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Comparative risks in the energy scene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, A.V.

    1981-01-01

    Studies comparing the risks in different energy systems are discussed, and the usefulness of the quantified risk assessment to the decision maker is outlined. Information is presented on (a) risks from fuel extraction, processing and fabrication (for coal, oil and nuclear); (b) annual risk per unit output (coal, oil and nuclear); (c) major events (nuclear, coal, oil and chemical). (U.K.)

  12. Quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising: a comparative study in Australia, Malaysia and the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitry Agnes I

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Journal advertising is used by pharmaceutical companies to disseminate medicine information to doctors. The quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in Australia and the US has been questioned in several studies. No recent evidence is available on the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in Australia and the US and no Malaysian data have been published. The aim of this study was to compare the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in these three countries. Methods A consecutive sample of 85 unique advertisements from each country was selected from journal advertising published between January 2004 to December 2006. Claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising were compared between the three countries. Results Less than one-third of the claims were unambiguous claims (Australia, 30%, Malaysia 17%, US, 23%. In Malaysia significantly less unambiguous claims were provided than in Australia and the US (P Conclusions The majority of claims were vague suggesting poor quality of claims in journal advertising in these three countries. Evidence from a randomized controlled trial, systematic review or meta- analysis was commonly cited to support claims. However, the more frequent use of data that have not been published and independently reviewed in the US compared to Australia and Malaysia raises questions on the quality of references in the US. The use of relative rather than absolute benefits may overemphasize the benefit of medicines which may leave doctors susceptible to misinterpreting information.

  13. Quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising: a comparative study in Australia, Malaysia and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Noordin; Vitry, Agnes I; Roughead, Elizabeth E

    2010-05-29

    Journal advertising is used by pharmaceutical companies to disseminate medicine information to doctors. The quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in Australia and the US has been questioned in several studies. No recent evidence is available on the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in Australia and the US and no Malaysian data have been published. The aim of this study was to compare the quality of claims, references and the presentation of risk results in journal advertising in these three countries. A consecutive sample of 85 unique advertisements from each country was selected from journal advertising published between January 2004 to December 2006. Claims, references and the presentation of risk results in medical journal advertising were compared between the three countries. Less than one-third of the claims were unambiguous claims (Australia, 30%, Malaysia 17%, US, 23%). In Malaysia significantly less unambiguous claims were provided than in Australia and the US (P review or meta-analysis (Australia, 84%, Malaysia, 81%, US, 76%) with journal articles being the most commonly cited references in all countries. Data on file were significantly more likely to be cited in the US (17%) than in Australia (2%) and Malaysia (4%) (P countries. Evidence from a randomized controlled trial, systematic review or meta- analysis was commonly cited to support claims. However, the more frequent use of data that have not been published and independently reviewed in the US compared to Australia and Malaysia raises questions on the quality of references in the US. The use of relative rather than absolute benefits may overemphasize the benefit of medicines which may leave doctors susceptible to misinterpreting information.

  14. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  15. Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

  16. Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

    1996-01-01

    The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

  17. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  18. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  19. Radiation effects, nuclear energy and comparative risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinath, D.V.

    2007-01-01

    Nuclear energy had a promising start as an unlimited, inexpensive and environmentally benign source of energy for electricity generation. However, over the decades its growth was severely retarded due to concerns about its possible detrimental effects on the well-being of mankind and the environment. Since such concerns are essentially due to the gigantic magnitude of radioactivity and ionizing radiations associated with nuclear energy, this article starts with a comprehensive account of effects of the ionizing radiation on living systems. Quantitative description of types of radiation exposure and their varied effects is given. The origin, type and magnitude of mutagenic effects of radiation are described. The concept of radiation risk factors, basis for their evaluation and their currently accepted values are presented. With this background, origin and magnitude of radioactivity and associated ionizing radiations in nuclear reactors are presented and the elaborate measures to contain them are described. It is recognized that notwithstanding all the measures taken in the nuclear industry, certain amount of radiation exposure, however small, is inevitable and the values, based on the experience world over, are presented. Estimated health risk due to such exposures is evaluated. For a comparative analysis, risks in other options of electricity generation such as hydel and fossil-fuelled plants are described. It is seen that on an overall basis, the nuclear option is no more risky than the other commonly employed options, and is in fact, significantly less. Lastly, since every option of electricity generation entails some risk, the case of 'no addition of electricity, and its impact on the society are considered. Based on the analysis of extensive data provided by UNDP on the human development parameters for different countries in the world, it is shown that at least for developing countries, any option of addition of electricity would be far more desirable than the

  20. Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Evans, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Comparing diagnostic tests on accuracy alone can be inconclusive. For example, a test may have better sensitivity than another test yet worse specificity. Comparing tests on benefit risk may be more conclusive because clinical consequences of diagnostic error are considered. For benefit-risk evaluation, we propose diagnostic yield, the expected distribution of subjects with true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative test results in a hypothetical population. We construct a table of diagnostic yield that includes the number of false positive subjects experiencing adverse consequences from unnecessary work-up. We then develop a decision theory for evaluating tests. The theory provides additional interpretation to quantities in the diagnostic yield table. It also indicates that the expected utility of a test relative to a perfect test is a weighted accuracy measure, the average of sensitivity and specificity weighted for prevalence and relative importance of false positive and false negative testing errors, also interpretable as the cost-benefit ratio of treating non-diseased and diseased subjects. We propose plots of diagnostic yield, weighted accuracy, and relative net benefit of tests as functions of prevalence or cost-benefit ratio. Concepts are illustrated with hypothetical screening tests for colorectal cancer with test positive subjects being referred to colonoscopy.

  1. Comparative risk assessment for electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoene, E.; Kallenbach, U.

    1988-01-01

    The following conclusions are drawn: There is no 'zero-risk option' in electricity generation. Risk comparison meets with considerable problems relating to available data and methods. Taking into account the existing uncertainties, technology ranking in terms of risks involved cannot be done, but the major risk elements of the various electricity generating systems can be clearly identified. The risks defined cannot be interpreted so as to lead to an abolishment of certain techniques due to risks involved, particularly if one sees the risks from electricity generation in relation to other health hazards. The use of coal for electricity generation clearly ranks top with regard to occupational risks and hazards to public health. (orig./HP) [de

  2. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  3. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  4. Comparative risk assessment in the energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1981-01-01

    This paper covers four approaches to risk assessment in the energy industry. The first is a comparison of the primary fuel cycles - coal and nuclear - standardized to 1 GW(e) power-plant year; this gives the societal risk of the production of a standardized amount of electricity. An example from underground coal mining is given to show how these estimates for the fuel cycles were made. The second approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks for different energy cycles per GWy(e). The third approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks of four different types of photovoltaic cell manufacture; this is an example of an intratechnology comparison. The fourth approach is a risk accounting method of analysis which estimates occupational health impacts for fabrication, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy technologies, and which, through an input-output model of the national economy, includes system-wide impacts as well as direct impacts of building and operating energy facilities

  5. NIR - State of the risk discussion today

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldermann, C.; Bernhardt, J.H.; Brueggemeyer, H.; Leitgeb, N.; Reichardt, R.; Steinmetz, M.

    2006-01-01

    The actual state of knowledge on health risks of non-ionizing radiation is discussed on an international as well as a national basis. Emphasis is given to EMF risks when using mobile phones on the one hand, and to the dangers from natural and artificial UV radiation on the other. Furthermore, a comprehensive compilation is given of national laws and regulations for telecommunication and mobile phones in Germany. (Orig.)

  6. Estimating and comparing risks in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llewellyn, Gareth

    1998-01-01

    The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector

  7. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  8. Comparative risk assessment of total energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.

    1982-01-01

    The paper discusses a methodology for total impact assessment of energy systems, ideally evaluating all the impacts that a given energy system has on the society in which it is imbedded or into which its introduction is being considered. Impacts from the entire energy conversion chain ('fuel cycle' if the system is fuel-based), including energy storage, transport and transmission, as well as the institutions formed in order to manage the system, should be compared on the basis of the energy service provided. A number of impacts are considered, broadly classified as impacts on satisfaction of biological needs, on health, on environment, on social relations and on the structure of society. Further considerations include impacts related to cost and resilience, and, last but not least, impacts on global relations. The paper discusses a number of published energy studies in the light of the comparative impact assessment methodology outlined above. (author)

  9. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  10. The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

    1989-01-01

    This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

  11. Risk of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding and associated costs in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients who initiated apixaban, dabigatran or rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in the United States Medicare population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Alpesh; Keshishian, Allison; Trocio, Jeffrey; Dina, Oluwaseyi; Le, Hannah; Rosenblatt, Lisa; Liu, Xianchen; Mardekian, Jack; Zhang, Qisu; Baser, Onur; Vo, Lien

    2017-09-01

    To compare the risk and cost of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding between each direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) and warfarin among non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients. Patients (≥65 years) initiating warfarin or DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran) were selected from the Medicare database from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2014. Patients initiating each DOAC were matched 1:1 to warfarin patients using propensity score matching to balance demographics and clinical characteristics. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risks of stroke/SE and major bleeding of each DOAC vs. warfarin. Two-part models were used to compare the stroke/SE- and major-bleeding-related medical costs between matched cohorts. Of the 186,132 eligible patients, 20,803 apixaban-warfarin pairs, 52,476 rivaroxaban-warfarin pairs, and 16,731 dabigatran-warfarin pairs were matched. Apixaban (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31, 0.53) and rivaroxaban (HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.63, 0.83) were significantly associated with lower risk of stroke/SE compared to warfarin. Apixaban (HR = 0.51; 95% CI 0.44, 0.58) and dabigatran (HR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.69, 0.91) were significantly associated with lower risk of major bleeding; rivaroxaban (HR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.10, 1.26) was significantly associated with higher risk of major bleeding compared to warfarin. Compared to warfarin, apixaban ($63 vs. $131) and rivaroxaban ($93 vs. $139) had significantly lower stroke/SE-related medical costs; apixaban ($292 vs. $529) and dabigatran ($369 vs. $450) had significantly lower major bleeding-related medical costs. Among the DOACs in the study, only apixaban is associated with a significantly lower risk of stroke/SE and major bleeding and lower related medical costs compared to warfarin.

  12. RISK AS AN OBJECT OF STATE REGULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perfilyev A. A.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider the possible mechanism of enterprise risk management from macroeconomic perspective. The need for investment risk management from the standpoint of the economy as a whole is determined by the following circumstances. Financial market conditions affecting the investment decisions of companies raises the financial markets in the category of the main sources of investment resources. This creates a state's interest in the effect on these sources, but it doesn't have effective ways to influence the investors’ decisions. Transition of regulator from influencing the cash flows to the regulation of investment activity creates a new paradigm for the financial management of the economy, which is based on a well-known fact that in the global economy the demand for goods and services is presented as a demand, mediated by investment decisions. The motives and mechanisms of investment decisions in a closed economy are well described by modern financial theory. In financial theory a mechanism of financial risk management is developed primarily from the standpoint of an investor, ignoring the problem in a broader context - within whole financial market of a country. Expanding the area of investment decisions international financial markets generate a need for new approaches to study of investment risks of corporations, which in this field are connected with country risk and should be considered as an object of state regulation. An analysis of fundamentals of the financial theory about the behavior of the investor, the state and the role of global financial markets in the choice of investors reveals that investment motives of corporations and mechanisms of regulators' influence on the cash flow are loosely bound in the matter of the volume of investments, which ones agree to implement, while others expect to receive. In our view, there is a need for a mechanism allowing the state to influence the investment decisions

  13. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  14. Comparative effectiveness of 50g glucose challenge test and risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of 50g glucose challenge test and risk factor based screening in detection of ... Mean maternal and gestational ages at recruitment were 30.8+1.2 years and ... Predictive Value, PPV - 20%) compared to risk factors only (PPV- 11.1%).

  15. Animated graphics for comparing two risks: a cautionary tale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Witteman, Holly O; Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Exe, Nicole L; Kahn, Valerie C; Dickson, Mark

    2012-07-25

    The increasing use of computer-administered risk communications affords the potential to replace static risk graphics with animations that use motion cues to reinforce key risk messages. Research on the use of animated graphics, however, has yielded mixed findings, and little research exists to identify the specific animations that might improve risk knowledge and patients' decision making. To test whether viewing animated forms of standard pictograph (icon array) risk graphics displaying risks of side effects would improve people's ability to select the treatment with the lowest risk profile, as compared with viewing static images of the same risks. A total of 4198 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel read a scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment was described as equally effective but varied in side effects (with one option slightly better than the other). Participants were randomly assigned to receive all risk information in 1 of 10 pictograph formats in a quasi-factorial design. We compared a control condition of static grouped icons with a static scattered icon display and with 8 Flash-based animated versions that incorporated different combinations of (1) building the risk 1 icon at a time, (2) having scattered risk icons settle into a group, or (3) having scattered risk icons shuffle themselves (either automatically or by user control). We assessed participants' ability to choose the better treatment (choice accuracy), their gist knowledge of side effects (knowledge accuracy), and their graph evaluation ratings, controlling for subjective numeracy and need for cognition. When compared against static grouped-icon arrays, no animations significantly improved any outcomes, and most showed significant performance degradations. However, participants who received animations of grouped icons in which at-risk icons appeared 1 at a time performed as well on all outcomes as the static grouped-icon control group

  16. Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1983-01-01

    Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

  17. Perinatal risks of planned home births in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grünebaum, Amos; McCullough, Laurence B; Brent, Robert L; Arabin, Birgit; Levene, Malcolm I; Chervenak, Frank A

    2015-03-01

    We analyzed the perinatal risks of midwife-attended planned home births in the United States from 2010 through 2012 and compared them with recommendations from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) for planned home births. Data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate data files from 2010 through 2012 were utilized to analyze the frequency of certain perinatal risk factors that were associated with planned midwife-attended home births in the United States and compare them with deliveries performed in the hospital by certified nurse midwives. Home birth deliveries attended by others were excluded; only planned home births attended by midwives were included. Hospital deliveries attended by certified nurse midwives served as the reference. Perinatal risk factors were those established by ACOG and AAP. Midwife-attended planned home births in the United States had the following risk factors: breech presentation, 0.74% (odds ratio [OR], 3.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.87-3.56); prior cesarean delivery, 4.4% (OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 2.0-2.17); twins, 0.64% (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.84-2.31); and gestational age 41 weeks or longer, 28.19% (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.68-1.74). All 4 perinatal risk factors were significantly higher among midwife-attended planned home births when compared with certified nurse midwives-attended hospital births, and 3 of 4 perinatal risk factors were significantly higher in planned home births attended by non-American Midwifery Certification Board (AMCB)-certified midwives (other midwives) when compared with home births attended by certified nurse midwives. Among midwife-attended planned home births, 65.7% of midwives did not meet the ACOG and AAP recommendations for certification by the American Midwifery Certification Board. At least 30% of midwife-attended planned home births are not low risk and not within

  18. Who reaps the benefits, who bears the risks? Comparative optimism, comparative utility, and regulatory preferences for mobile phone technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Mathew P; Eiser, J Richard; Harris, Peter R; Pahl, Sabine

    2007-06-01

    Although the issue of risk target (e.g., self, others, children) is widely acknowledged in risk perception research, its importance appears underappreciated. To date, most research has been satisfied with demonstrating comparative optimism, i.e., lower perceived risk for the self than others, and exploring its moderators, such as perceived controllability and personal exposure. Much less research has investigated how the issue of target may affect benefit perceptions or key outcomes such as stated preferences for hazard regulation. The current research investigated these issues using data from a public survey of attitudes toward mobile phone technology (N= 1,320). First, results demonstrated comparative optimism for this hazard, and also found moderating effects of both controllability and personal exposure. Second, there was evidence of comparative utility, i.e., users believed that the benefits from mobile phone technology are greater for the self than others. Third, and most important for policy, preferences for handset regulation were best predicted by perceptions of the risks to others but perceived benefits for the self. Results suggest a closer awareness of target can improve prediction of stated preferences for hazard regulation and that it would be profitable for future research to pay more attention to the issue of target for both risk and benefit perceptions.

  19. The Psychosis High-Risk State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Borgwardt, Stefan; Bechdolf, Andreas; Addington, Jean; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Keshavan, Matcheri; Wood, Stephen; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Seidman, Larry J.; Valmaggia, Lucia; Cannon, Tyrone; Velthorst, Eva; De Haan, Lieuwe; Cornblatt, Barbara; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Birchwood, Max; McGlashan, Thomas; Carpenter, William; McGorry, Patrick; Klosterkötter, Joachim; McGuire, Philip; Yung, Alison

    2014-01-01

    Context During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms. The importance of this HR state has been increasingly recognized to such an extent that a new syndrome is being considered as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5. Objective To reframe the HR state in a comprehensive state-of-the-art review on the progress that has been made while also recognizing the challenges that remain. Data Sources Available HR research of the past 20 years from PubMed, books, meetings, abstracts, and international conferences. Study Selection and Data Extraction Critical review of HR studies addressing historical development, inclusion criteria, epidemiologic research, transition criteria, outcomes, clinical and functional characteristics, neurocognition, neuroimaging, predictors of psychosis development, treatment trials, socioeconomic aspects, nosography, and future challenges in the field. Data Synthesis Relevant articles retrieved in the literature search were discussed by a large group of leading worldwide experts in the field. The core results are presented after consensus and are summarized in illustrative tables and figures. Conclusions The relatively new field of HR research in psychosis is exciting. It has the potential to shed light on the development of major psychotic disorders and to alter their course. It also provides a rationale for service provision to those in need of help who could not previously access it and the possibility of changing trajectories for those with vulnerability to psychotic illnesses. PMID:23165428

  20. Information Uncertainty to Compare Qualitative Reasoning Security Risk Assessment Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The security risk associated with malevolent acts such as those of terrorism are often void of the historical data required for a traditional PRA. Most information available to conduct security risk assessments for these malevolent acts is obtained from subject matter experts as subjective judgements. Qualitative reasoning approaches such as approximate reasoning and evidential reasoning are useful for modeling the predicted risk from information provided by subject matter experts. Absent from these approaches is a consistent means to compare the security risk assessment results. Associated with each predicted risk reasoning result is a quantifiable amount of information uncertainty which can be measured and used to compare the results. This paper explores using entropy measures to quantify the information uncertainty associated with conflict and non-specificity in the predicted reasoning results. The measured quantities of conflict and non-specificity can ultimately be used to compare qualitative reasoning results which are important in triage studies and ultimately resource allocation. Straight forward extensions of previous entropy measures are presented here to quantify the non-specificity and conflict associated with security risk assessment results obtained from qualitative reasoning models.

  1. The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Arias, R. [Universidad Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Prades, A. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Arranz, L. [Hospital Ramon y Cajal, Madrid (Spain); Macias, M.T. [CSIC, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-05-01

    Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)

  2. The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Arias, R.; Prades, A.; Arranz, L.; Macias, M.T.

    2000-01-01

    Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)

  3. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A comparative review of radiation-induced cancer risk models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [Risk and Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies. This review can be used as a basis for developing a Korean cancer risk model in the future.

  5. The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

    2010-01-01

    To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

  6. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Richard N [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-07-01

    In recognition of potential risks, all pesticides distributed and sold in the United States must fulfil extensive registration requirements for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Registration is a licensing procedure where industry must submit data to demonstrate the safety of pesticidal substances and products before they can be used commercially. The regulatory control of pesticides is unique among chemicals in the U.S. in that testing beyond initial registration may be imposed by the Agency throughout the commercial life of the chemical, as long as there is adequate justification. Registration requirements are gauged to the nature of potential exposures. For instance, more data are generally needed for food use registrations than for non-food uses because of direct consumption of treated foods by the whole U.S. population. Unlike pesticide practices in many countries and authorities, as in the European Community where agricultural pesticides, non-agricultural pesticides and genetically engineered microbial agents are handled by separate directives, all pesticide activities are covered in the U.S. by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. This statute covers pesticide uses on foods and animal feed and a number of non-food applications like forest and horticultural uses, residential lawn care, in-home applications, and disinfectants/sterilants. Traditional inorganic and organic chemicals are covered, as well as biological agents like pheromones. Naturally occurring and genetically altered microorganisms also come under the definition of pesticides, but multicellular animals are exempt from regulation as pesticides. Pesticide registration in the U.S. as in many other countries may be a long-term, resource intensive undertaking. Not uncommonly the process from beginning to complete registration may take 4 to 10 years and cost about $10 million. To meet the responsibilities of reviewing studies, overseeing 400 active ingredients and 35

  7. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Richard N.

    1992-01-01

    In recognition of potential risks, all pesticides distributed and sold in the United States must fulfil extensive registration requirements for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Registration is a licensing procedure where industry must submit data to demonstrate the safety of pesticidal substances and products before they can be used commercially. The regulatory control of pesticides is unique among chemicals in the U.S. in that testing beyond initial registration may be imposed by the Agency throughout the commercial life of the chemical, as long as there is adequate justification. Registration requirements are gauged to the nature of potential exposures. For instance, more data are generally needed for food use registrations than for non-food uses because of direct consumption of treated foods by the whole U.S. population. Unlike pesticide practices in many countries and authorities, as in the European Community where agricultural pesticides, non-agricultural pesticides and genetically engineered microbial agents are handled by separate directives, all pesticide activities are covered in the U.S. by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. This statute covers pesticide uses on foods and animal feed and a number of non-food applications like forest and horticultural uses, residential lawn care, in-home applications, and disinfectants/sterilants. Traditional inorganic and organic chemicals are covered, as well as biological agents like pheromones. Naturally occurring and genetically altered microorganisms also come under the definition of pesticides, but multicellular animals are exempt from regulation as pesticides. Pesticide registration in the U.S. as in many other countries may be a long-term, resource intensive undertaking. Not uncommonly the process from beginning to complete registration may take 4 to 10 years and cost about $10 million. To meet the responsibilities of reviewing studies, overseeing 400 active ingredients and 35

  8. 26 CFR 1.953-3 - Risks deemed to be United States risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risks deemed to be United States risks. 1.953-3... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Controlled Foreign Corporations § 1.953-3 Risks deemed to be United States risks. (a) Artificial arrangements. For purposes of paragraph (a) of § 1.953-1, the term “United...

  9. DEPENDENCE OF COUNTRY RISK COMPARED TO THE FOREIGN DEBT LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents some of the fundamental aspects of country risk’dependence compared to foreign debt level. Starting from external debt burden we analyze the usage of foreign loans, foreign debt bearing capacity as well as the availability of data regarding the external debt. Country risk represents the exposure to losses which may occur in a business with a foreign partner, caused by specific events that are, at least partially, controlled by the partner country’ government. Macroeconomic analysis of economic and financial component of country risk involves how this risk is influenced by government policy, by the economic role of government, bypricing strategies, investment priorities, financial structures, macroeconomic policy, by the ability to obtain foreign funds, the level of external debt as well as the liquidity and cash flows in that country.

  10. Comparative Study of Teenage Pregnancy in Lagos State University ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... a comparative study of the obstetric performance of primiparous teenagers and ... 2006-31st December, 2007) in Lagos State University Teaching Hospital,Ikeja. ... The incidence of teenage pregnancy in the study population was 1.01% with ...

  11. Methods for comparative risk assessment of different energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    The environmental and health aspects of different energy systems, particularly those associated with the generation of electricity, are emerging as significant issues for policy formulation and implementation. This, together with the growing need of many countries to define their energy programmes for the next century, has provided the basis for a renewed interest in the comparative risk assessment of different energy sources (fossil, nuclear, renewables). This document is the outcome of a Specialists Meeting on the procedural and methodological issues associated with comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources. After an introductory chapter outlining the issues under consideration the papers presented at the Meeting, which have been indexed separately, are given. Refs, figs and tabs

  12. Uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, S.; Metcalf, D.R.; Pegram, J.W.

    1982-01-01

    Three uncertainty propagation techniques, namely method of moments, discrete probability distribution (DPD), and Monte Carlo simulation, generally used in probabilistic risk assessment, are compared and conclusions drawn in terms of the accuracy of the results. For small uncertainty in the basic event unavailabilities, the three methods give similar results. For large uncertainty, the method of moments is in error, and the appropriate method is to propagate uncertainty in the discrete form either by DPD method without sampling or by Monte Carlo. (orig.)

  13. Putting risk analysis into perspective: a comparative review of major societal risk studies of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dooley, J.E.; Hansson, B.; Kaspersson, R.; ORiordan, T.; Paschen, H.

    1983-04-01

    The emphasis in this final report of the project Evaluation of major Swedish energy risk assessments in an international perspective is shifted towards the comparative aspect. The comprehensive nuclear risk study has been used as an instrument to satisfy many needs simultaneously. The research consisted of an examination of existing risk studies of five nations, namely West Germany, UK, US, Canada and Sweden. The effect of nuclear risk studies on society at large and on public attitude towards nuclear power in particular is discussed. Finally, the effect on the nuclear establishment is analysed. (G.B.)

  14. A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

  15. State of emergency and emergency: Comparative terminological and semantic aspects

    OpenAIRE

    Avramović, Dragutin; Mlađan, Dragan

    2014-01-01

    The issue of theoretical definition and distinction between a state of emergency and an emergency is made current in recent national and international literature, as well as in different comparative law normative solutions. Considering the usage inconsistencies of the two terms, this paper attempts to highlight the differences between them, as they essentially carry distinctive legal meanings despite their implied lexical and logical similarity. The paper stresses the necessity of their clear...

  16. [Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigor'ev, Iu G

    2012-01-01

    The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

  17. Radiation polluton and cancer: comparative risks and proof

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1982-01-01

    A case study of the comparative risks from nuclear radiation and coal burning is presented for a given level of energy production. Mr. Cohen indicates results that might be realized under judicial reforms. Cohen notes the typical overstatement of health hazards from low-level radiation, when current risk assessment methodology derives it from high-level radiation statistics. However, he sees public attention focused on the danger of even low-level radiation brought about by radioactive waste disposal uncertainties. Cohen accuses the information media of generating bad news even when facts point in the opposite direction. He offers as an example, a rationale for the Best-Collins proposal to adjudicate pollution engendered torts under the guidance of reputable authorities rather than impressionable juries guided by proximate case. The paper ends with the question, How can the ajudication system be reformed, given such perverse incentives

  18. Predicting risk for disciplinary action by a state medical board.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardarelli, Roberto; Licciardone, John C; Ramirez, Gilbert

    2004-01-01

    Disciplinary actions taken against physicians in the United States have been increasing over the last decade, yet the factors that place physicians at risk have not been well identified. The objective of this study is to identify predictors of physician disciplinary action. This case-control study used data from the Texas State Board of Medical Examiners from January 1989 through December 1998. Characteristics of disciplined physicians and predictors of disciplinary action for all violations and by type of violation were the main outcome descriptors. Years in practice, black physicians, and osteopathic graduates were positive predictors for disciplinary action. In contrast, female physicians, international medical graduates, and Hispanic and Asian physicians were less likely to receive disciplinary action compared with male, US allopathic, and white physicians, respectively. Most specialists, except psychiatrists and obstetrician-gynecologists, were less likely to be disciplined than were family practitioners, whereas general practitioners were more likely to be disciplined. More studies are needed to corroborate these findings.

  19. Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    2017-12-01

    We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Comparing the lifetime risks of TNF-alpha inhibitor use to common benchmarks of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminska, Edi; Patel, Isha; Dabade, Tushar S; Chang, Jongwha; Qureshi, Ayub A; O'Neill, Jenna L; Balkrishnan, Rajesh; Feldman, Steven R

    2013-04-01

    The study aims to illustrate the range of lifetime risks of lymphoma, tuberculosis (TB), and demyelinating diseases with TNF-α inhibitors in psoriasis patients. Previously published data and online resources were used to determine the risk of the TB, demyelinating disease, and lymphoma with and without TNF-α inhibitor treatment. Lifetime risks for heart disease and stroke were collected using a Medline search. All cancer, trauma, and environmental statistics were obtained from the data published by National Cancer Institute, National Safety Council, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, respectively. The lifetime risks of TNF-α-inhibitor-linked conditions and comparators are as follows: TNF-α inhibitor-linked conditions: lymphoma with: without TNF-α inhibitors (0.5-4.8%:2.3%), TB with:without TNF-α inhibitors (0-17.1%:0.3%), and demyelinating disease with:without TNF-α inhibitors (0.1-1.7%:0.15%). Comparators: cancer (40.4%), heart disease (36.2%), stroke (18.4%), accidental death (3.0%), motor vehicle death (1.2%), and lightning strike (0.033%). Much of the data on lifetime risks of disease with TNF-α inhibitor were for patients with rheumatoid arthritis and not psoriasis. The risks of lymphoma, demyelinating diseases, and tuberculosis with TNF-α inhibitors are lower than risks patients face on a regular basis. Screening reduces the risk of tuberculosis in patients receiving TNF-α inhibitors.

  1. Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Evangelista Régis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

  2. Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, Peter; Hirschberg, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO 2 -emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

  3. The risk of upcoding in casemix systems: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbusch, Paul J M; Oostenbrink, Jan B; Zuurbier, Joost J; Schaepkens, Frans J M

    2007-05-01

    With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the total number of improper Medicare payments for the Prospective Payment system for acute inpatient care (both short term and long term) amounted to US$ 4.8 billion (5.2%). By comparing the casemix systems in the US, Australian and Dutch healthcare systems, this article illustrates why certain casemix systems are more open to the risk of upcoding than other systems. This study identifies various market, control and casemix characteristics determining the weaknesses of a casemix reimbursement system to upcoding. It can be concluded that fewer opportunities for upcoding occur in casemix systems that do not allow for-profit ownership and in which the coder's salary does not depend on the outcome of the classification process. In addition, casemix systems in which the first point in time of registration is at the beginning of the care process and in which there are a limited number of occasions to alter the registration are less vulnerable to the risk of upcoding. Finally, the risk of upcoding is smaller in casemix systems that use classification criteria that are medically meaningful and aligned with clinical practice. Comparing the US, Australian and Dutch systems the following conclusions can be drawn. Given the combined occurrences of for-profit hospitals and the use of the secondary diagnosis criterion to classify DRGs, the US casemix system tends to be more open to upcoding than the Australian system. The strength of the Dutch system is related to the detailed classification scheme, using medically meaningful classification criteria. Nevertheless, the detailed classification scheme also causes a weakness, because of its increased complexity compared with the US and

  4. Comparative risk assessment: an element for a more rational and ethical approach to radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danesi, P.R.

    2006-01-01

    Peaceful nuclear technologies are still perceived by a large fraction of the general public, the media as well as by some decision makers, as more risky than many other 'conventional' technologies. One of the approaches that can help bringing more rationality and ethics into the picture is to present the risk associated with radiation and nuclear technologies in the frame of correctly conducted comparative risk assessments. However, comparing different risks is not so straightforward because quantifying different risks on a comparable scale requires overcoming both conceptual and practical difficulties. Risk (R) can be expressed as the product of the probability (P) that a given undesired event, the risk, will occur, times the consequences of this event (C), i.e. R = P x C. Although in principle risks could be compared by simply ranking them according to the different values of R, this simplistic approach is not always possible because to correctly compare risks all factors, circumstances and assumptions should be mutually equivalent and quantified and the (often large) uncertainties taken into proper account. In the case of radiation risk, ICRP has assumed as valid the LNT model, (probability coefficient of 5 % per Sievert for attributable death from cancer) and selected the present equivalent dose limit of 1 mSv per year for public exposure. This dose corresponds to 50 lethal cancers by 1 million people exposed and is approximately equivalent (in terms of probability of death) to the risk of bicycling for 600 km, driving for 3200 km, crossing a busy road twice a day for 1 year, smoking 2.5 packets of cigarettes or being X-rayed once for kidney metabolism. However, according to many scientists on the basis of both epidemiological and biological results and considerations, the actual risk is far lower than that predicted by the LNT model. Nevertheless, the policies and myths that were created about half a century ago are still persisting and have lead the general

  5. Comparing population health in the United States and Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huguet Nathalie

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of the paper is to compare population health in the United States (US and Canada. Although the two countries are very similar in many ways, there are potentially important differences in the levels of social and economic inequality and the organization and financing of and access to health care in the two countries. Methods Data are from the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health 2002/03. The Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3 was used to measure overall health-related quality of life (HRQL. Mean HUI3 scores were compared, adjusting for major determinants of health, including body mass index, smoking, education, gender, race, and income. In addition, estimates of life expectancy were compared. Finally, mean HUI3 scores by age and gender and Canadian and US life tables were used to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE. Results Life expectancy in Canada is higher than in the US. For those Conclusions The population of Canada appears to be substantially healthier than the US population with respect to life expectancy, HRQL, and HALE. Factors that account for the difference may include access to health care over the full life span (universal health insurance and lower levels of social and economic inequality, especially among the elderly.

  6. State of terror: women at risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    The Karen Women’s Organisation

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Two reports researched and written by the Karen Women’sOrganisation – Shattering Silences in 2004 and State ofTerror in 20071 – document the wide range of humanrights abuses against Burmese women and girls.

  7. State of terror: women at risk

    OpenAIRE

    The Karen Women’s Organisation

    2008-01-01

    Two reports researched and written by the Karen Women’sOrganisation – Shattering Silences in 2004 and State ofTerror in 20071 – document the wide range of humanrights abuses against Burmese women and girls.

  8. Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

  9. Comparative assessment of spent nuclear fuel transportation routes using risk factors and a geographic information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, D.M.

    1996-01-01

    The assessment of potential alternative routes was simplified through the use of six comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed, route-specific data. The route and environmental attributes varied strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The six comparative factors were risk measures of incident-free transportation radiation exposure, radiological accident population exposure, nonradiological accidents, contamination of environmental sensitive areas, environmental justice for minority populations, and environmental justice for low-income populations. An assessment of four real North-Central Florida routes provided a sample implementation of the analysis tools and risk factors. The assessment routes, consisting of common beginning and end locations, included an interstate highway, a rural highway, a mostly urban highway, and a combination interstate highway with rural bypass. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume, and the lowest percentages of minority and low-income populations, displayed the highest cumulative risk measure. Factors contributing to the high risk for the rural highway route included greater route length, higher vehicular fatality accident rates per vehicle mile traveled, and the close proximity to environmentally sensitive areas. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume

  10. State review United States of America. Risks and risk assessment according to the law of the United States of America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldmann, F.J.

    1980-01-01

    In the chapter 'Risk Assessment in Atomic Energy Law of the United States' of this report you find among other things the Atomic Energy Act, the approval conditions, General Design Criteria for Nuclear Power Plants, the defense-in-depth concept, probabilistic safety studies, probabilistic probability assessments in the case of external influences onto nuclear power plants, quantitative analyses of the consequences of conceivable accidents, reduction of radiation exposure, the National Environmental Policy Act, the environmental compatibility declaration, the so-called residual risk under the environmental aspect, the classification of the accidents into 9 types, new developments concerning accident analysis, effects of the nuclear fuel cycle on environment, indicial decisions. The chapter about 'Risk Assessment in Civil Law, Criminal Law and Law on Protection of the Environment', deals among other things with the Law on nuisance, the Clean Air Act, the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act. In 'Problems of the Cost-Efficiency-Analysis' the significance and purpose of this analysis, the availability of data and information, the monetary quantification of risks and costs, alternatives and the danger of misuse are illustrated. (HSCH) [de

  11. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

  12. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

  13. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  14. Voice problems among Slovenian physicians compared to the teachers: Prevalence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maja Šereh Bahar

    2012-09-01

    Conclusions: The prevalence of voice disorders among outpatients’ physicians in Slovenia is high and is comparable to the incidence of voice problems in Slovenian teachers. URI is the most common cause of these voice problems. GERD, allergies and an age over 40 years were stated as the risk factors for voice disorders. In order to reduce the extent of voice problems, lessons on vocal hygiene, and additional information about diseases causing voice disorders should be included in their postgraduate education.

  15. Discursive junctions in flood risk governance - A comparative understanding in six European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Maria; Wiering, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Flood risks are managed differently across Europe. While a number of research studies aim to understand these differences, they tend to pay little attention to the social constructionist aspects of flood risk governance, i.e. the meaning that societies give to flood risk and governance. This paper aims to address this gap by understanding differences in flood risk management approaches (FRMA) from a discursive-institutional perspective. Based on this perspective, an analytical framework was developed to systematically analyse and compare discourses pertaining to flood risk and its governance in six European member states (England (the United Kingdom), Flanders (Belgium), France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden). Correspondingly, this paper demonstrates how the hegemonic discursive-institutional patterns of flood risk governance differ between the six European countries. These differences may influence the capability of countries to learn from each other, adopt new FRMAs or cooperate with each other. Moreover, the paper argues that differences in discourses partially account for the differences in FRMAs between countries, combined with other factors. Additionally, broader implications are discussed. For example, the research findings imply that some discourses tend to favour or disfavour other discourses, and that they additionally also tend to favour particular FRMAs; e.g. the flood risk discourse pertaining to high manageability of risks seems to favour a governance discourse of collectivity and central governance. The different insights imply that further research is necessary to understand the complex interaction of discourses and institutional arrangements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino J Levy

    Full Text Available The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

  17. State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Dino J; Thavikulwat, Amalie C; Glimcher, Paul W

    2013-01-01

    The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

  18. Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Spiekerman, G.; Dones, R.

    1997-01-01

    This paper addresses one of the major limitations of the current comparative studies of environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues. The assessments concern full energy chains associated with fossil sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. A comprehensive severe accidents database has been established. Thanks to the variety of information sources used, it exhibits in comparison with other corresponding databases a far more extensive coverage of the energy-related accidents. For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic approach has been employed and extended to cover the economic consequences of power reactor accidents. Results of comparisons between the various energy chains are shown and discussed along with a number of current issues in comparative assessment of severe accidents. As opposed to the previous studies, the aim of the present work has been, to cover whenever possible, a relatively broad spectrum of damage categories of interest. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 18 refs

  19. Comparing complete and partial classification for identifying customers at risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemer, J.M.M.; Brijs, T.; Swinnen, S.P.; Vanhoof, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper evaluates complete versus partial classification for the problem of identifying customers at risk. We define customers at risk as customers reporting overall satisfaction, but these customers also possess characteristics that are strongly associated with dissatisfied customers. This

  20. Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Putter, H.; Fiocco, M.; Geskus, R. B.

    2007-01-01

    Standard survival data measure the time span from some time origin until the occurrence of one type of event. If several types of events occur, a model describing progression to each of these competing risks is needed. Multi-state models generalize competing risks models by also describing

  1. Risk factors for acute stroke among South Asians compared to other racial/ethnic groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tefera Gezmu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies of racial/ethnic variations in stroke rarely consider the South Asian population, one of the fastest growing sub-groups in the United States. This study compared risk factors for stroke among South Asians with those for whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics. METHODS: Data on 3290 stroke patients were analyzed to examine risk differences among the four racial/ethnic groups. Data on 3290 patients admitted to a regional stroke center were analyzed to examine risk differences for ischemic stroke (including subtypes of small and large vessel disease among South Asians, whites, African Americans and Hispanics. RESULTS: South Asians were younger and had higher rates of diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose levels than other race/ethnicities. Prevalence of diabetic and antiplatelet medication use, as well as the incidence of small-artery occlusion ischemic stroke was also higher among South Asians. South Asians were almost a decade younger and had comparable socioeconomic levels as whites; however, their stroke risk factors were comparable to that of African Americans and Hispanics. DISCUSSION: Observed differences in stroke may be explained by dietary and life style choices of South Asian-Americans, risk factors that are potentially modifiable. Future population and epidemiologic studies should consider growing ethnic minority groups in the examination of the nature, outcome, and medical care profiles of stroke.

  2. Risk factors for acute stroke among South Asians compared to other racial/ethnic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gezmu, Tefera; Schneider, Dona; Demissie, Kitaw; Lin, Yong; Gizzi, Martin S

    2014-01-01

    Studies of racial/ethnic variations in stroke rarely consider the South Asian population, one of the fastest growing sub-groups in the United States. This study compared risk factors for stroke among South Asians with those for whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics. Data on 3290 stroke patients were analyzed to examine risk differences among the four racial/ethnic groups. Data on 3290 patients admitted to a regional stroke center were analyzed to examine risk differences for ischemic stroke (including subtypes of small and large vessel disease) among South Asians, whites, African Americans and Hispanics. South Asians were younger and had higher rates of diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose levels than other race/ethnicities. Prevalence of diabetic and antiplatelet medication use, as well as the incidence of small-artery occlusion ischemic stroke was also higher among South Asians. South Asians were almost a decade younger and had comparable socioeconomic levels as whites; however, their stroke risk factors were comparable to that of African Americans and Hispanics. Observed differences in stroke may be explained by dietary and life style choices of South Asian-Americans, risk factors that are potentially modifiable. Future population and epidemiologic studies should consider growing ethnic minority groups in the examination of the nature, outcome, and medical care profiles of stroke.

  3. Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B.N.; Sarma, M.; Vries, de C.G.

    2006-01-01

    Using regular variation to define heavy tailed distributions, we show that prominent downside risk measures produce similar and consistent ranking of heavy tailed risk. Thus, regardless of the particular risk measure being used, assets will be ranked in a similar and consistent manner for heavy

  4. Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI: A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Calil

    Full Text Available As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI, contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only

  5. The Concept of State Capacity: Comparative International Ratings against State Legitimacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Gennadievich Ivanov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the given article, the author analyzes the concept of state capacity, widely popular among political scientists and international relations specialists. The author proves that the evaluations of the level of state capacity of the developing and postcommunist countries based on popular comparative ratings are generally biased because of methodological defects and discrepancy of the whole theory as well as politicization and indoctrination of the given ratings. The negative evaluations of the quality of the government and state capacity of a country could be used to discredit and delegitimize the political regime as well as substantiation of mass protests and color revolutions and a tool of information war. The author concludes that numerous comparative international ratings are often used as a tool of political influence.

  6. 26 CFR 1.953-2 - Actual United States risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... being the promotion of such sales to United States retail outlets by advertising in trade publications... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Actual United States risks. 1.953-2 Section 1.953-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX...

  7. Refined avian risk assessment for chlorpyrifos in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Dwayne R J; Teed, R Scott; Greer, Colleen D; Solomon, Keith R; Giesy, John P

    2014-01-01

    Refined risk assessments for birds exposed to flowable and granular formulations ofCPY were conducted for a range of current use patterns in the United States. Overall,the collective evidence from the modeling and field study lines of evidence indicate that flowable and granular CPY do not pose significant risks to the bird communities foraging in agro-ecosystems in the United States. The available information indicates that avian incidents resulting from the legal, registered uses of CPY have been very infrequent since 2002 (see SI Appendix 3). The small number of recent incidents suggests that the current labels for CPY are generally protective of birds.However, incident data are uncertain because of the difficulties associated with finding dead birds in the field and linking any mortality observed to CPY.Plowable CPY is registered for a variety of crops in the United States including alfalfa, brassica vegetables, citrus, corn, cotton, grape, mint, onion, peanut, pome and stone fruits, soybean, sugar beet, sunflower, sweet potato, tree nuts, and wheat under the trade name Lorsban Advanced. The major routes of exposure for birds to flowable CPY were consumption of treated dietary items and drinking water. The Liquid Pesticide Avian Risk Assessment Model (Liquid PARAM) was used to simulate avian ingestion of CPY by these routes of exposure. For acute exposure,Liquid PARAM estimated the maximum retained dose in each of 20 birds on each of1,000 fields that were treated with CPY over the 60-d period following initial application.The model used a 1-h time step. For species lacking acceptable acute oral toxicity data (all focal species except northern bobwhite (C. virginianus) and redwinged blackbird (A. phoeniceus)), a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach was used to generate hypothetical dose-response curves assuming high, median and low sensitivity to CPY. For acute risk, risk curves were generated for each use pattern and exposure scenario. The risk

  8. Australian Defence Risk Management Framework: A Comparative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-02-01

    disadvantage or gain. There may be a range of possible outcomes associated with an event. Definition 1.3.3 Event An incident or situation, which occurs in a...prohibitive insurance costs. Sometimes, advantages may far outweigh disadvantages making risk more justifiable. The unacceptable risks are...objectives, work culture and risk management approaches. Globalisation and introduction of new technologies have significantly complicated the situation

  9. A Comparative Analysis of Indian Gaming in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, William V.; Bunch, Rick L.

    2012-01-01

    Previous research on Indian gaming in South Dakota discovered very restrictive and unfavorable tribal-state compacts that appear to border on economic racism. This article expands this previous research by exploring the influence of tribal-state Indian gaming compacts for the Indian casinos located in the contiguous United States. The purpose is…

  10. Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

    1996-01-01

    Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

  11. Preventive dentistry: practitioners' recommendations for low-risk patients compared with scientific evidence and practice guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, P S; Sawai, R; Bowen, W H; Meyerowitz, C

    2000-02-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare published evidence supporting procedures to prevent dental caries and periodontal disease, in low-risk patients, with the actual preventive recommendations of practicing dentists. Methods included (1) a survey questionnaire of general dentists practicing in western New York State concerning the preventive procedures they would recommend and at what intervals for low-risk children, young adults, and older adults; and (2) review of the published, English-language literature for evidence supporting preventive dental interventions. The majority of dentists surveyed recommended semiannual visits for visual examination and probing to detect caries (73% to 79%), and scaling and polishing to prevent periodontal disease (83% to 86%) for low-risk patients of all ages. Bite-wing radiographs were recommended for all age groups at annual or semiannual intervals. In-office fluoride applications were recommended for low-risk children at intervals of 6 to 12 months by 73% of dentists but were recommended for low-risk older persons by only 22% of dentists. Application of sealants to prevent pit and fissure caries was recommended for low-risk children by 22% of dentists. Literature review found no studies comparing different frequencies of dental examinations and bite-wing radiographs to determine the optimal screening interval in low-risk patients. Two studies of the effect of scaling and polishing on the prevention of periodontal disease found no benefit from more frequent than annual treatments. Although fluoride is clearly a major reason for the decline in the prevalence of dental caries, there are no studies of the incremental benefit of in-office fluoride treatments for low-risk patients exposed to fluoridated water and using fluoridated toothpaste. Comparative studies using outcome end points are needed to determine the optimal frequency of dental examinations and bite-wing radiographs for the early detection of caries, and of scaling

  12. Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

    2016-11-01

    Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  13. Borders and border representations: Comparative approximations among the United States and Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Cueva Perus

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This article uses a comparative approach regarding frontier symbols and myths among the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean. Although wars fought over frontiers have greatly diminished throughout the world, the conception of frontier still held by the United States is that of a nationalist myth which embodies a semi-religious faith in the free market and democracy. On the other hand, Latin American and Caribbean countries, whose frontiers are far more complex, have shown extraordinary stability for several decades. This paper points out the risks involved in the spread of United States´ notions of frontier which, in addition, go hand-in-hand with the problem of multicultural segmentation. Although Latin American and Caribbean frontiers may be stable, they are vulnerable to the infiltration of foreing frontier representations.

  14. Comparative, collaborative, and integrative risk governance for emerging technologies

    OpenAIRE

    LINKOV IGOR; TRUMP BENJAMIN D.; ANKLAM ELKE; BERBUBE DAVID; BOISSEAU PATRICK; CUMMINGS CHRISTOPHER; FERSON SCOTT; FLORIN MARIE-VALENTINE; GOLDSTEIN BERNARD; HRISTOZOV DANAIL; JENSEN KELD ASTRUP; KATALAGARIANAKIS GEORGIOS; KUZMA JENNIFER; LAMBERT JAMES H.; MALLOY TIMOTHY

    2018-01-01

    Various emerging technologies challenge existing governance processes to identify, assess, and manage risk. Though the existing risk-based paradigm has been essential for assessment of many chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear technologies, a complementary approach may be warranted for the early-stage assessment and management challenges of high uncertainty technologies ranging from nanotechnology to synthetic biology to artificial intelligence, among many others. This ...

  15. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

  16. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  17. Compared assessment of chemical risk and radiological risk for the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Garnier-Laplace, J.

    2007-01-01

    The environmental protection is today a global issue that concerns all the human activities. The challenge is to be able to prove their compatibility with the protection of the natural environment, but also if required to manage adequately a potential or established risk, generally in the context of ever strict regulations. Regarding the chemical aspects, known methods are available for the assessment of the associated risk for the environment. From the radiological point of view, the necessity to have such tools recently became more apparent, in order to justify for the public and with a full transparency the release of radioactive substances into the environment, to meet the requirements of the new regulations in terms of environmental protection and finally to harmonize the approaches between human and environmental radioprotection as well as between chemical and radioactive pollutants, simultaneously present for example in routine releases from nuclear power plants. At this end of harmonization, the assessment methodologies of the environmental risk linked to radionuclides or chemical substances are exposed from the theory to their comparative application, a new approach under development from which the first results are summarised. (authors)

  18. Economic risks of the system of state and municipal procurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belokrylova Olga, S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the audit of economic risks at all stages of procurement for state and municipal needs from both customers and bidders is carried out on the basis of the implementation of the integrated approach . Stages in the procurement under a single contract system, which is characterized by the high economic risks are planning, supplier selection, conclusion and execution of the contract. A number of the measures according to the localization of economic risks are offered, in particular the implementation of compliance programs, which institutionalize the compliance by the organization, anti-corruption legislation; increasing qualification of specialists in public procurement and increased control through centralization of procurement.

  19. The developmental state in Brazil: comparative and historical perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BEN ROSS SCHNEIDER

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The record of successful developmental states in East Asia and the partial successes of developmental states in Latin America suggest several common preconditions for effective state intervention including a Weberian bureaucracy, monitoring of implementation, reciprocity (subsidies in exchange for performance, and collaborative relations between government and business. Although Brazil failed to develop the high technology manufacturing industry and exports that have fueled sustained growth in East Asia, its developmental state had a number of important, and often neglected, successes, especially in steel, automobiles, mining, ethanol, and aircraft manufacturing. Where Brazil's developmental state was less successful was in promoting sectors like information technology and nuclear energy, as well as overall social and regional equality. In addition, some isolated initiatives by state governments were also effective in promoting particular local segments of industry and agriculture. Comparisons with East Asia, highlight the central role of state enterprises in Brazil that in effect internalized monitoring and reciprocity and bypassed collaboration between business and government (that was overall rarer in Brazil.

  20. Comparing transnational organizational innovation in state administration and local government

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Morten Balle

    2014-01-01

    and similarities between different forms of organizational innovation and in part, on differences and similarities between state and municipal organizations. Eleven forms of organizational innovation often related to New Public Management (NPM), are included in the empirical analyses: Privatization/Outsourcing...... of 2009. We find that NPM tools have had a much stronger impact in local government than in state administration. The reasons for and the implications of this finding are discussed....

  1. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  2. Comparing Risks and Benefits for Value Enhancement of Online Purchase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyanka Sinha

    2018-12-01

    Full Text Available In a developing economy, the acceptability of e–retailing is not very new, but the potential of online marketing in market research and analysis is still largely unexplored. This article is an attempt to understand the psyche of Indian online consumers. As consumers have their own preconceived notions toward this growing purchasing environment, it becomes important for e-retailers to understand the consumers’ perceptions and attitudes toward online purchases. This paper integrates the dimensions of the risks and benefits with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB to understand how consumers adopt their online purchase processes. Four hundred and sixty-eight valid responses were analyzed using structural equation modeling on AMOS 21 to identify the relationship between the different factors and the intention to purchase online. The paper concludes that consumers’ purchase intentions are jointly determined by their attitude towards online purchases and the subjective norm. Furthermore, their attitude is determined by the sub-dimensions of perceived benefits (hedonic benefit, convenience benefit, economic benefit and variety and the sub-dimensions of perceived risk (product risk and financial risk.

  3. The risk of upcoding in casemix systems : A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbusch, P.; Oostenbrink, J.; Schaepkens, F.F.J.M.; Zuurbier, J.J.

    2007-01-01

    With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the

  4. Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).

  5. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Shanklin, Shari; Lim, Connie; Grunbaum, Jo Anne; Wechsler, Howell

    2006-01-01

    In the United States, 71% of all deaths among persons aged 10-24 years result from 4 causes: motor vehicle crashes, other unintentional injuries, homicide, and suicide. Results from the 2005 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) indicated that during the 30 days preceding the survey, many high school students engaged in behaviors that…

  6. STATE-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ADVANTAGES AND RISKS

    OpenAIRE

    S.A. Neganov; L.I. Polizhyk

    2008-01-01

    In paper the problem of state and business interaction in main national projects realization is described. Advantages and risks are shown. To raise efficiency of partnership it is offered to optimize a perfection of a legal regime, society’s participation in discussion of the projects and the controlling over their performance.

  7. Investigation of Breast Cancer Risk Factors in northern states of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common type of cancers and leading cause of death among women worldwide. In Sudan breast cancer is the most common type of cancer and its incidence has been rising for the past two decades. Objective: To investigate whether the breast risk factors of northern states (Northern ...

  8. [Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Juárez, Guillermina; Ramírez-Bribiesca, J Efrén; Hernández-Vázquez, Maricela; Hernández-Calva, Luz Marina; Díaz-Aparicio, Efrén; Orozco-Bolaños, Hermila

    2014-01-01

    To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in goats and humans was determined. 46.9% of producers know the programs of vaccination against brucellosis; 19.7% apply the vaccine and 80.3% do not apply the vaccine. Huamantla had the highest seroprevalence of animal brucellosis in 66.8%; San Jose Teacalco distributes unpasteurized cheeses to a distance of 270 km, increasing the risk of infection with brucellosis. Ixtenco recorded the highest prevalence of brucellosis in humans, with 1.51%. The municipalities studied present risks of infection and spread of brucellosis.

  9. Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermina García-Juárez

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. Materials and methods. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in goats and humans was determined. Results. 46.9% of producers know the programs of vaccination against brucellosis; 19.7% apply the vaccine and 80.3% do not apply the vaccine. Huamantla had the highest seroprevalence of animal brucellosis in 66.8%; San Jose Teacalco distributes unpasteurized cheeses to a distance of 270 km, increasing the risk of infection with brucellosis. Ixtenco recorded the highest prevalence of brucellosis in humans, with 1.51%. Conclusion. The municipalities studied present risks of infection and spread of brucellosis.

  10. An index of harm for comparing occupational risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaaf, E.; Hennig, J.; Schnadt, H.; Becker, G.

    1986-03-01

    An index of harm is presented describing the health hazards of persons occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation, for comparison with occupational risks in conventional working areas. The criterion for evaluating injuries is the remaining lifetime affected by chronic damage. The affected years of life themselves are evaluated in a scheme considering the degree of reduced ability to work. The index of harm is based on an evaluation of a data pool collected by all F.R.G. associations for social insurance against occupational accidents, which recorded all data of first compensation for accidents. The index can be taken into consideration for assessment of risks emanating from ionizing radiation, and for evaluating the radiation protection currently provided by maximum permissible limits, etc. (DG) [de

  11. The use of risk criteria in comparing transportation alternatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, H.

    2013-01-01

    For the transportation of dangerous substances, several modes of transportation are possible. If there are multiple possibilities, it is relevant to compare the safety of the transportation alternatives. TNO has developed a consistent method to compare the different transportation modes, using

  12. Accounting for data uncertainties in comparing risks from energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, Ulrich

    1998-01-01

    Data and models for risk comparisons are uncertain and this is true all the more the larger the time horizon contemplated. Statistical methods are presented for dealing with data uncertainties thus providing a broader foundation for decisions. Nevertheless, it has to be borne in mind that no method exists to account for the 'unforeseeable' which is always present in decision making with respect to the far future. (author)

  13. Comparative Demand Analysis for Rice in Three States of South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dauda Omoba

    2013-01-01

    Jan 1, 2013 ... The contribution of the effect of the price of rice on the budget share of rice in the study ...... it is a luxury in rural areas of Delta state. This may imply that ... between brands of rice in rural Lagos and urban. Edo was the highest ...

  14. Risk-based Comparative Study of Fluid Power Pitch Concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liniger, Jesper; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; N. Soltani, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    Proper functioning of the pitch system is essential to both normal operation and safety critical shut down of modern multi megawatt wind turbines. Several studies on field failure rates for such turbines show that pitch systems are a major contributor to failures which entails an increased risk....... Thus, more reliable and safe concepts are needed. A review of patents and patent applications covering fluid power pitch concepts, reveals that many propose closed-type hydraulic systems. This paper proposes a closed-type concept with a bootstrap reservoir. In contrary to a conventional system where...

  15. AGEING POPULATION: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AMONG EUROPEAN UNION STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura DIACONU (MAXIM

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aging population is a global phenomenon, which has affected almost all the EU states. The consequences are very important since it affects the socio-economic environment usually on the long run. Some of them could consist in increasing the public expenditure on pensions, social security and health services, which will raise the overall burden on the working population. Sometimes, a significant reduction of the labour force will even diminish the growth rate of an economy. Considering these aspects, the present paper intends to analyse the demographic situation from the EU states, the factors that have generated it and to identify the possible future trends. To determine the evolution of the ageing population phenomenon, we have analysed some demographic indicators included in various statistical reports and databases, such as the fertility rate, the median age, the percentage of population over a certain age and the age dependency ratio.

  16. A pilot exercise on comparative risk assessment in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cebrian, M.E.; Albores, A.; Sierra, A. [and others

    1996-12-31

    Concern in the Mexican government and academic institutions about human health problems derived from exposure to environmental contaminants has been increasing. This interest prompted us to perform a pilot study to identify and rank potentially problematic environmental situations. We were given access to files from the Instituto Nacional de Ecologia. We screened about 2,500 documents and selected about 200 reports for further analysis. We adapted methodologies developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1993) and ATSDR (1992) to analyze environmental data. San Luis Potosi City and Region Lagunera were the areas posing greater risks. We chose San Luis Potosi City to perform a more detailed study, since here a smelting complex is located within an urban zone. The high levels of As, Pb, and Cd in environmental media resulted in a higher body burden in exposed children than children living 7 km away. Multiple regression analysis suggested that alterations in sensorial nerve transmission were mainly related to As in urine (AsU), whereas those in motor nerves were mainly related to Pb in blood (PbB). No apparent relationships associated with CdU were found. Slower auditory nerve conduction was associated with both AsU and PbB. These findings suggest that exposed children are also at high risk of suffering other adverse health effects. This exercise illustrates the need to perform studies aimed at identifying and ranking environmental contamination problems in industrializing countries. 5 refs., 1 tab.

  17. Improving of State Regional Policy Mechanism at Risks` Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Tarasovich Lukysha

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Modernization and innovatization were defined as the ways of improvement of the state policy of regional development from the safety perspective. They stipulate the following: 1 avoidance of the possible risks of the development of regions providing for the refusal of the unreliable programs and projects, unreasonable taking on credit and other kinds of loans; 2 risk sharing and convergence, as well as the reduction of their influence on the results of administrative activity; 3 determination and prevention of negative effect of risks. It was offered to carry out the improvement of the state policy of the development of regions with the help of the forming of stable organizational and informational network and system. It was specified that the difference between the latter is in the fact that the organizational and informational system concerns the financial side of administrative activity in regions. This means that it ensures the observance of the principle of transparency. While the organizational and informational network reflects its procedural side with the concept of openness being the basis of such activity. The improvement of the procedure of the organization of state administration of risks of the regional development was proved. It was established that organization of the state administration of the risks of regions development has a form of a chain: “provision of power and powers to the public authority → establishment of the new structural unit or addition of the existing administrative formations, approval of the functional regulations, official duties, etc. → competitive selection of the officials, their training, retraining, consulting → performance by them of the direct tasks on the detection and the prevention of the negative influence of dangers and threats.”

  18. Feasible sets, comparative risk aversion, and comparative uncertainty aversion in bargaining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driesen, B.W.I.; Lombardi, M.; Peters, H.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    We study feasible sets of the bargaining problem under two different assumptions: the players are subjective expected utility maximizers or the players are Choquet expected utility maximizers. For the latter case, we consider the effects on bargaining solutions when players become more risk averse

  19. Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

    2018-04-01

    The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

  20. Predicting risk-taking behavior from prefrontal resting-state activity and personality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bettina Studer

    Full Text Available Risk-taking is subject to considerable individual differences. In the current study, we tested whether resting-state activity in the prefrontal cortex and trait sensitivity to reward and punishment can help predict risk-taking behavior. Prefrontal activity at rest was assessed in seventy healthy volunteers using electroencephalography, and compared to their choice behavior on an economic risk-taking task. The Behavioral Inhibition System/Behavioral Activation System scale was used to measure participants' trait sensitivity to reward and punishment. Our results confirmed both prefrontal resting-state activity and personality traits as sources of individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Right-left asymmetry in prefrontal activity and scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale, reflecting trait sensitivity to punishment, were correlated with the level of risk-taking on the task. We further discovered that scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale modulated the relationship between asymmetry in prefrontal resting-state activity and risk-taking. The results of this study demonstrate that heterogeneity in risk-taking behavior can be traced back to differences in the basic physiology of decision-makers' brains, and suggest that baseline prefrontal activity and personality traits might interplay in guiding risk-taking behavior.

  1. Predicting Risk-Taking Behavior from Prefrontal Resting-State Activity and Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Bettina; Pedroni, Andreas; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2013-01-01

    Risk-taking is subject to considerable individual differences. In the current study, we tested whether resting-state activity in the prefrontal cortex and trait sensitivity to reward and punishment can help predict risk-taking behavior. Prefrontal activity at rest was assessed in seventy healthy volunteers using electroencephalography, and compared to their choice behavior on an economic risk-taking task. The Behavioral Inhibition System/Behavioral Activation System scale was used to measure participants’ trait sensitivity to reward and punishment. Our results confirmed both prefrontal resting-state activity and personality traits as sources of individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Right-left asymmetry in prefrontal activity and scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale, reflecting trait sensitivity to punishment, were correlated with the level of risk-taking on the task. We further discovered that scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale modulated the relationship between asymmetry in prefrontal resting-state activity and risk-taking. The results of this study demonstrate that heterogeneity in risk-taking behavior can be traced back to differences in the basic physiology of decision-makers’ brains, and suggest that baseline prefrontal activity and personality traits might interplay in guiding risk-taking behavior. PMID:24116176

  2. Still on the Right Trajectory: State Teachers of the Year Compare Former and New State Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClellan, Catherine; Joe, Jilliam; Bassett, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    As part of state transitions to college- and career-ready (CCR) standards, including the Common Core State Standards in more than 40 states (NGA & CCSSO, 2010), states are for the first time administering new summative assessments aligned to those standards and aiming for a higher bar in assessment quality. For a majority of states, this means…

  3. Comparative risks from different energy systems: Evolution of the methods of studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1980-01-01

    This conference has emphasized the difficulty in estimating energy-entailed health risks engendered by the differences between objective measures of risk - the estimated real or actual risk of a process - and the subjective perception of these risks. The subjective perception of risk colours the thinking of most decision-makers (including governments and their regulatory bodies), likewise the public. This confusion (apart from any fundamental psychological processes that may be involved) stems from the following: 1. Assessment of the health effects from different energy systems has had only brief and sparsely supported investigations to date, e.g., only seven years ago did government agencies in the USA evince interest in assessing their health effects. Less than seven years ago was there funding for work at Brookhaven. 2. Assessment differs from research. Assessing the health and environmental costs of energy production and use requires scrutiny of various diverse areas of research. Research is needed to define the pollutants emitted by various stages in various fuel cycles, including end-use, and to trace, then quantitate their chemical transformations, transport, including chemical and biological conversion through air, water, food, finally reaching man and important animals and crops. 3. In assessment, because of the state of knowledge (or lack of it), one frequently must make do with, say, only 60 per cent certainty rather than with the 95 per cent significance level that one strives to achieve from research. This statistical gap itself attracts special interest groups, e.g., governments and utilities, who, from the earliest beginnings of comparative assessments, have for one or another reason exploited confusion between reality and perception of risk

  4. Comparative risks from different energy systems: Evolution of the methods of studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L D [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)

    1980-10-01

    This conference has emphasized the difficulty in estimating energy-entailed health risks engendered by the differences between objective measures of risk - the estimated real or actual risk of a process - and the subjective perception of these risks. The subjective perception of risk colours the thinking of most decision-makers (including governments and their regulatory bodies), likewise the public. This confusion (apart from any fundamental psychological processes that may be involved) stems from the following: 1. Assessment of the health effects from different energy systems has had only brief and sparsely supported investigations to date, e.g., only seven years ago did government agencies in the USA evince interest in assessing their health effects. Less than seven years ago was there funding for work at Brookhaven. 2. Assessment differs from research. Assessing the health and environmental costs of energy production and use requires scrutiny of various diverse areas of research. Research is needed to define the pollutants emitted by various stages in various fuel cycles, including end-use, and to trace, then quantitate their chemical transformations, transport, including chemical and biological conversion through air, water, food, finally reaching man and important animals and crops. 3. In assessment, because of the state of knowledge (or lack of it), one frequently must make do with, say, only 60 per cent certainty rather than with the 95 per cent significance level that one strives to achieve from research. This statistical gap itself attracts special interest groups, e.g., governments and utilities, who, from the earliest beginnings of comparative assessments, have for one or another reason exploited confusion between reality and perception of risk.

  5. Comparing Guidelines for Statin Treatment in Canada and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennessy, Deirdre A; Bushnik, Tracey; Manuel, Douglas G; Anderson, Todd J

    2015-07-14

    New guidelines for cardiovascular disease risk assessment and statin eligibility have recently been published in the United States by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC-AHA). It is unknown how these guidelines compare with the Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) recommendations. Using data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey 2007-2011, we estimated the cardiovascular disease risk and proportion of the Canadian population, aged 40 to 75 years without cardiovascular disease, who would theoretically be eligible for statin treatment under both the CCS and ACC-AHA guidelines. The survey sample used (n=1975) represented 13.1 million community dwelling Canadians between the ages of 40 and 75 years. In comparing the CVD risk assessment methods, we found that calculated CVD risk was higher based on the CCS guidelines compared with the ACC-AHA guidelines. Despite this, a similar proportion and number of Canadians would be eligible for statin treatment under the 2 sets of recommendations. Some discordance in recommendations was found within subgroups of the population, with the CCS guidelines recommending more treatment for individuals who are younger, with a family history of CVD, or with chronic kidney disease. The ACC-AHA recommend more treatment for people who are older (age 60+ years). These results likely overestimate the treatment rate under both guidelines because, in primary prevention, a clinician-patient discussion must occur before treatment and determines uptake. Implementing the ACC-AHA lipid treatment guidelines in Canada would not result in an increase in individuals eligible for statin treatment. In fact, the proportion of the population recommended for statin treatment would decrease slightly and be targeted at different subgroups of the population. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  6. Deciding the way. Comparing energy risks: methodologies and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuki, Yoshio; Lee, R.

    1999-01-01

    The following major issues in comparative assessment of energy systems are discussed: target users; decision making process; subject policy-making; setting boundaries; aggregated health indicators; monetary valuation; long-term health effects; global warming; methods to reflect uncertainties. Suggestions for study approaches of the mentioned issues are proposed

  7. Comparative Demand Analysis for Rice in Three States of South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dauda Omoba

    ABSTRACT. A greenhouse study was conducted at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka to compare the effects of sole and integrated use of composted oil palm bunch waste and chemical fertilizer for improving the growth of oil palm seedlings under water stress condition. The experiment was a 3x3x4 factorial in a completely ...

  8. The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

  9. Childhood Ideology in the United States: A Comparative Cultural View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Diane M.

    2003-03-01

    Childhood ideology functions in each nation as a complex of ideas about what children are like and how best to teach and socialise them. One important domain of childhood ideology concerns ideas and practices related to children's development and behaviour management. Drawing from an analysis of popular childrearing magazines and early childhood education materials in the United States, this cultural study describes contemporary American mainstream beliefs concerning children's early emotional and behavioural development. In particular, the paper explores themes of emotional expression, autonomy, individuality, power, and consumerism. Some comparisons with Japanese views on child development and emotional/behavioural socialisation are also made. The paper suggests that popular ideas and techniques of emotional and behavioural management in the United States in both families and early childcare environments reflect a dominant ideology of children that has potentially negative consequences for children's welfare. Furthermore, childhood ideologies, while retaining culturally specific values and ideas neither remain static nor exist in isolation from one another. The paper questions the global diffusion of a Western-style professionalised discourse of child psychology that may not be applicable to all nations and their children.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Risk, Return and Diversification of Mutual Fund

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rais Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mutual Funds have become a widely popular and effective way for investors to participate in financial markets in an easy, low-cost fashion, while muting risk characteristics by spreading the investment across different types of securities, also known as diversification. It can play a central role in an individual's investment strategy. With the plethora of schemes available in the Indian markets, an investors needs to evaluate and consider various factors before making an investment decision. The present investigation is aimed to examine the performance of safest investment instrument in the security market in the eyes of investors. Five mutual fund large cap scheme have been selected for this purpose. The examination is achieved by assessing various financial tests like Sharpe Ratio, Standard Deviation, Alpha, and Beta. Furthermore, in-depth analysis also has been done by considering return over the period of last five years on various basis, expenses ratio, corpus-size etc. The data has been taken from various websites of mutual fund schemes and from www.valueresearch.com. The study will be helpful for the researchers and financial analysts to analyze various securities or funds while selecting the best investment alternative out of the galaxy of investment alternatives.

  11. Understanding public perceptions of benefits and risks of childhood vaccinations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Geoboo

    2014-03-01

    In the face of a growing public health concern accompanying the reemerging threat of preventable diseases, this research seeks mainly to explain variations in the perceived benefits and risks of vaccinations among the general public in the United States. As Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky's grid-group cultural theory of risk perception claims, the analytical results based upon original data from a nationwide Internet survey of 1,213 American adults conducted in 2010 suggest that individuals' cultural predispositions contribute to the formation of their perceptions pertaining to vaccine benefits and risks at both societal and individual levels, in conjunction with other factors suggested by previous risk perception literature, such as perceived prevalence of diseases, trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Those with a strong hierarch orientation tend to envision greater benefits and lesser risks and conceive of a relatively high ratio of benefit to risk when compared to other cultural types. By contrast, those with a strong fatalist tendency are inclined to emphasize risks and downplay benefits while conceiving of a low vaccination benefit-risk ratio. Situated between hierarchs and fatalists, strong egalitarians are prone to perceive greater benefits, smaller risks, and a more positive benefit-risk ratio than strong individualists. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo

    2011-01-01

    Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

  13. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    OpenAIRE

    Mkael Symmonds; Julian J Emmanuel; Megan E Drew; Rachel L Batterham; Raymond J Dolan

    2010-01-01

    Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regio...

  14. Response planning and environmental risk analysis, state of Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gundlach, E.R.; Marben, G.M.

    1993-01-01

    Under the sponsorship of the Alaska Dept. of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), a multitasked study was undertaken to determine the relative risk of noncrude oil transport (including marine and freshwater), the status of spill response capability in the state, and the need and most appropriate locations for siting spill response deposits. The project used multidisciplinary transport and environmental data analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) to enable various scenarios and data changes to be easily visualized. The evaluation concerned (a) designation of significant environmental risk areas, (b) environmentally sensitive areas and fish and wildlife likely to be affected, (c) the level of response capability appropriate for protecting the environment, (d) the adequacy of current capabilities for noncrude vessels, (e) the feasibility of establishing one or more response cooperatives for use by multiple carriers, and (f) other steps that could be taken to reduce the risk of a spill and facilitate control and cleanup

  15. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  16. United States comparative costs and absenteeism of diabetic ophthalmic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, Richard A; Kleinman, Nathan L; Patel, Sunil; Smeeding, Jim E; Beren, Ian A; Turpcu, Adam

    2015-06-01

    This retrospective cohort study examined the impact of diabetic macular edema (DME), diabetic retinopathy (DR), or diabetes on annual health benefit costs and absenteeism in US employees. Claims data from 2001 to 2012 was extracted from the Human Capital Management Services Group Research Reference Database on annual direct/indirect health benefit costs and absences for employees aged ≥ 18 years. Employees with DME, DR, or diabetes were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Employees were divided into two groups, drivers or nondrivers, and examined in separate analyses. For drivers and nondrivers, the DME, DR, and diabetes cohorts were compared with their respective control groups (without diabetes). Two-part regression models controlled for demographics and job-related characteristics. A total of 39,702 driver and 426,549 nondriver employees were identified as having ≥ 1 year's continuous health plan enrollment. Direct medical costs for drivers with DME, DR, or diabetes were $6470, $8021, and $5102, respectively (>2.8 times higher and statistically significant compared with driver controls). Nondrivers with DME and DR incurred significantly higher sick leave and short-term disability costs compared with the nondrivers with diabetes and nondriver controls. In drivers with DME, the majority of days of absence were for short- and long-term disability (12.41 and 11.43 days, respectively). In drivers with DR, the majority of days of absence were for short-term disability (10.70 days). In nondrivers with DME and nondrivers with DR, the majority of days of absence were for sick leave (5.74 and 4.93 days, respectively) and short-term disability (5.08 and 4.93 days, respectively). DME and DR are associated with substantial direct medical cost and absenteeism in this real-world sample of medically insured employees. This research highlights the negative impact of DME and DR on annual costs and absenteeism

  17. Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Wittemyer

    Full Text Available Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing. These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults, annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years and females (21.8 years. Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly

  18. Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human

  19. Comparing Measures of Late HIV Diagnosis in Washington State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Saganic

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As more US HIV surveillance programs routinely use late HIV diagnosis to monitor and characterize HIV testing patterns, there is an increasing need to standardize how late HIV diagnosis is measured. In this study, we compared two measures of late HIV diagnosis, one based on time between HIV and AIDS, the other based on initial CD4+ results. Using data from Washington's HIV/AIDS Reporting System, we used multivariate logistic regression to identify predictors of late HIV diagnosis. We also conducted tests for trend to determine whether the proportion of cases diagnosed late has changed over time. Both measures lead us to similar conclusions about late HIV diagnosis, suggesting that being male, older, foreign-born, or heterosexual increase the likelihood of late HIV diagnosis. Our findings reaffirm the validity of a time-based definition of late HIV diagnosis, while at the same time demonstrating the potential value of a lab-based measure.

  20. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  1. Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocks, Sophie A; Schubert, Iljana; Soane, Emma; Black, Edgar; Muckle, Rachel; Petts, Judith; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon J

    2017-09-01

    Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Prediabetes: a high-risk state for diabetes development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabák, Adam G; Herder, Christian; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Brunner, Eric J; Kivimäki, Mika

    2012-06-16

    Prediabetes (intermediate hyperglycaemia) is a high-risk state for diabetes that is defined by glycaemic variables that are higher than normal, but lower than diabetes thresholds. 5-10% of people per year with prediabetes will progress to diabetes, with the same proportion converting back to normoglycaemia. Prevalence of prediabetes is increasing worldwide and experts have projected that more than 470 million people will have prediabetes by 2030. Prediabetes is associated with the simultaneous presence of insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction-abnormalities that start before glucose changes are detectable. Observational evidence shows associations between prediabetes and early forms of nephropathy, chronic kidney disease, small fibre neuropathy, diabetic retinopathy, and increased risk of macrovascular disease. Multifactorial risk scores using non-invasive measures and blood-based metabolic traits, in addition to glycaemic values, could optimise estimation of diabetes risk. For prediabetic individuals, lifestyle modification is the cornerstone of diabetes prevention, with evidence of a 40-70% relative-risk reduction. Accumulating data also show potential benefits from pharmacotherapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Prediabetes: A high-risk state for developing diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabák, Adam G.; Herder, Christian; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Brunner, Eric J.; Kivimäki, Mika

    2013-01-01

    Summary Prediabetes (or “intermediate hyperglycaemia”), based on glycaemic parameters above normal but below diabetes thresholds is a high risk state for diabetes with an annualized conversion rate of 5%–10%; with similar proportion converting back to normoglycaemia. The prevalence of prediabetes is increasing worldwide and it is projected that >470 million people will have prediabetes in 2030. Prediabetes is associated with the simultaneous presence of insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction, abnormalities that start before glucose changes are detectable. Observational evidence shows associations of prediabetes with early forms of nephropathy, chronic kidney disease, small fibre neuropathy, diabetic retinopathy, and increased risk of macrovascular disease. Multifactorial risk scores could optimize the estimation of diabetes risk using non-invasive parameters and blood-based metabolic traits in addition to glycaemic values. For prediabetic individuals, lifestyle modification is the cornerstone of diabetes prevention with evidence of a 40%–70% relative risk reduction. Accumulating data also suggests potential benefits from pharmacotherapy. PMID:22683128

  4. Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debon, A.; Carrion, A.; Cabrera, E.; Solano, H.

    2010-01-01

    The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

  5. Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Debon, A., E-mail: andeau@eio.upv.e [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Carrion, A. [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Cabrera, E. [Dpto. De Ingenieria Hidraulica Y Medio Ambiente, Instituto Tecnologico del Agua, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Solano, H. [Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago (Chile)

    2010-01-15

    The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

  6. Accident Risks In The Energy Sector: Comparative Evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.

    2005-01-01

    Severe accidents are considered one of the most controversial issues in current comparative studies of the environmental and health impact of energy systems. The present work focuses on severe accident scenarios relating to fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro-power. The scope of the study is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains, but, wherever applicable, also includes full energy chains. With the exception of the nuclear chain, the focus of the present work is on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis for this evaluation is the comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which has been established at PSI. For hypothetical nuclear accidents, a probabilistic technique has also been employed. The broader picture, derived from examination of full energy chains, leads, on a world-wide basis, to the conclusion that immediate fatality rates are much higher for the fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries, and, in the case of hydro and nuclear, the difference is rather dramatic. In addition to aggregated values, frequency-consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include such information as the observed, or predicted, chain-specific maximum extent of damages. Finally, damage and external costs of severe accidents for the different energy chains have been estimated, based on the unit cost values for the various consequence types. (author)

  7. The Psychosis High-Risk State A Comprehensive State-of-the-Art Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Borgwardt, Stefan; Bechdolf, Andreas; Addington, Jean; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Keshavan, Matcheri; Wood, Stephen; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Seidman, Larry J.; Valmaggia, Lucia; Cannon, Tyrone; Velthorst, Eva; de Haan, Lieuwe; Cornblatt, Barbara; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Birchwood, Max; McGlashan, Thomas; Carpenter, William; McGorry, Patrick; Klosterkötter, Joachim; McGuire, Philip; Yung, Alison

    2013-01-01

    Context: During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms.

  8. Risk reduction strategies in laparoscopic donor nephrectomy: A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Manohar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: As the advancements, modifications and standardization of laparoscopy are taking place, there is a need for the reduction in morbidity associated with laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy. This study was performed to determine and reconfirm the advantages of laparoscopic donor nephrectomy over its open counterpart. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred open live donor nephrectomy (ODN cases were compared to 264 cases of laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy (LDN. Pretransplant functional and radiological evaluation was done routinely by excretory urogram and renal arteriography. In case of vascular variations, CT angiography was preferred. Open cases were done by conventional method and laparoscopic group underwent certain technical and surgical modifications, including meticulous planning for the port placement. Operative time, analgesia requirement, start of the orals, hospital stay, blood loss, late allograft function, incidence of rejection, complications and technical problems were analyzed. RESULTS: Operative time was 135.8 ± 43 and 165 ± 44.4 min ( P < 0.0001, requirement of analgesia was 60.5 ± 40 and 320 ± 120 mg ( P < 0.0001, hospital stay was 4 ± 0.04 and 5.7 ± 2.03 days ( P < 0.0001, warm ischemia time was 6.1 ± 2.0 and 4.1 ± 0.80 min ( P < 0.0001 and time taken for the serum creatinine to stabilize in the recipient was 4.1 ± 1.6 and 4.32 ± 1.40 days ( P =0.06 for LDN and ODN groups respectively. There was a significant reduction in the blood loss in LDN group ( P =0.0005. Overall complications were 6.81 and 14.5% and ureteric injury was seen in 0.37 and 1% in LDN and ODN respectively. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy can now be performed with low morbidity and mortality to both donors and recipients and is proving to be the preferred operation to open donor nephrectomy. Our continued innovations in technical modifications have made this novel operation successful.

  9. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

  10. What is the relative health risk to swimmers from California Seagull feces compared to bather shedders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estimated infection risks to swimmers from California seagull and bather sources of fecal contamination at a beach in Southern California were compared using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The risk to swimmers of gastro-intestinal infections was estimated from Ca...

  11. Risk of iron overload is decreased in beating heart coronary artery surgery compared to conventional bypass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, S; Koh, T W; Pepper, J R; Gutteridge, J M

    2001-11-29

    Conventional cardiopulmonary bypass surgery (CCPB) increases the iron loading of plasma transferrin often to a state of plasma iron overload, with the presence of low molecular mass iron. Such iron is a potential risk factor for oxidative stress and microbial virulence. Here we assess 'off-pump' coronary artery surgery on the beating heart for changes in plasma iron chemistry. Seventeen patients undergoing cardiac surgery using the 'Octopus' myocardial wall stabilisation device were monitored at five time points for changes in plasma iron chemistry. This group was further divided into those (n=9) who had one- or two- (n=8) vessel grafts, and compared with eight patients undergoing conventional coronary artery surgery. Patients undergoing beating heart surgery had significantly lower levels of total plasma non-haem iron, and a decreased percentage saturation of their transferrin at all time points compared to conventional bypass patients. Plasma iron overload occurred in only one patient undergoing CCPB. Beating heart surgery appears to decrease red blood cell haemolysis, and tissue damage during the operative procedures and thereby significantly decreases the risk of plasma iron overload associated with conventional bypass.

  12. Comparative risk perception: how the public perceives the risks and benefits of energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, K [Open Univ., Milton Keynes (UK)

    1981-04-30

    The view of risk perception adopted in this paper focuses on how individuals define, and hence feel about, the outcomes of a risk issue. Perception of risk is seen as encompassing a variety of attributes of a risk issue including wider beliefs that permit a risk benefit trade-off. A survey of beliefs and attitudes of the general public toward the use of various energy systems (coal, oil, hydro, solar and nuclear energy) was carried out in Austria at a time of increasing concern with energy strategies and the controversy surrounding Austria's first nuclear energy plant. The results are analysed. In general, energy systems were found to be associated with only environmental risk; however, nuclear energy was an exception in that the public, whether in favour of nuclear energy or against, believed that it is also associated with psychological and physical risk. It was also found that the policy makers underestimated the public's negative feelings about the psychological risk dimension and their belief in its association with nuclear energy.

  13. Comparative risk perception: how the public perceives the risks and benefits of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, K.

    1981-01-01

    The view of risk perception adopted in this paper focuses on how individuals define, and hence feel about, the outcomes of a risk issue. Perception of risk is seen as encompassing a variety of attributes of a risk issue including wider beliefs that permit a risk benefit trade-off. A survey of beliefs and attitudes of the general public toward the use of various energy systems (coal, oil, hydro, solar and nuclear energy) was carried out in Austria at a time of increasing concern with energy strategies and the controversy surrounding Austria's first nuclear energy plant. The results are analysed. In general, energy systems were found to be associated with only environmental risk; however, nuclear energy was an exception in that the public, whether in favour of nuclear energy or against, believed that it is also associated with psychological and physical risk. It was also found that the policy makers underestimated the public's negative feelings about the psychological risk dimension and their belief in its association with nuclear energy. (author)

  14. Construction of the State and the Risks of Its Destruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alain Joxe

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the danger of war and insecurity in the Mediterranean countries is dependant upon existing fracture lines within states moreso than it does upon the risk of armed inter-state confrontation. Internal instability is related to, according to Alain Joxe, the end of Russian-American strategic bipolarity in the Mediterranean, inasmuch as the subsequent changes brought about in the international system have impacted on the Mediterranean political societies and on intra-state violence. Though the Mediterranean represents a place where antinomies exist between the economies of the North and South, the policies of Europe and the United States, and matters belonging to civilisation - Islam, Judaism, the Christian world and the modernist secular tradition, the intrusion of the great systems of world power via the globalising economy causes ruptures in localsocieties and leads to the weakening of the states. In order to create a system of security in the Mediterranean, it is therefore necessary to apply a critical method that discards cultural and historical stereotypes, looks again at the supposed successes obtained by the different peace agreements, and identifies the negative aspects of economic globalisation. Such a method must be accompanied by the objective of forcing negotiations to take place among the true actors in Mediterranean society –the states– and also among the other ethnic, linguistic or religious entities, large organisations like the EU, NATO and the Arab League, and commercial groups and business leaders who must integrate themselves in a regimented international economy.

  15. Risk policies and risk perceptions: a comparative study of environmental health risk policy and perception in six European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bröer, C.; Moerman, G.; Spruijt, P.; van Poll, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the influence that health risk policies have on the citizens’ perceptions of those health risks. Previously, detailed mixed methods research revealed that noise annoyance policies shaped noise perception. This idea is now applied to nine different environmental health risks in

  16. The risk of nuclear power in Germany compared with the risk other electricity generating technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preiss, P.; Wissel, S.; Fahl, U.; Friedrich, R.; Voss, A.

    2013-01-01

    The report shows that no electricity generation technology is without risk and without environmental impact. Taking into account the quantifiable risks of loss expenses in case of accidents the study shows that the health hazards and economical risk are by trend about equal for nuclear power and renewable energy sources. The study is based on the statement that the severe accident in Fukushima-Daiichi cannot be ascribed to so-called remaining risk since the NPP was not designed for tsunamis of the size that occurred in 2011 although this size was of high probability and that the calculated very low probabilities for severe accidents in German nuclear power plants correspond to the reality.

  17. The nuclear industry's transition to risk-informed regulation and operation in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadak, Andrew C.; Matsuo, Toshihiro

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes a study of the transition of the United States nuclear industry from a prescriptive regulatory structure to a more risk informed approach to operations and regulations. The transition occurred over a 20 yr period in which gradual changes were made in the fundamental regulations and to the approach to nuclear safety and operations. While the number of actual regulatory changes were few, they are continuing. The utilities that embraced risk informed operations made dramatic changes in the way they approached operations and outage management. Those utilities that used risk in operations showed dramatic improvement in safety based on Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) performance indicators. It was also shown that the use of risk did not negatively affect safety performance of the plants compared to standard prescriptive approaches. This was despite having greater flexibility in compliance to regulatory standards and the use of the newly instituted risk-informed reactor oversight process. Key factors affecting the successful transition to a more risk-informed approach to regulations and operations are: strong top management support and leadership both at the regulator and the utility; education and training in risk principles and probabilistic risk Assessment tools for engineers, operators and maintenance staff; a slow and steady introduction of risk initiatives in areas that can show value to both the regulator and the industry; a transparent regulatory foundation built around a safety goal policy and the development of a strong safety culture at the utility to allow for more independence in safety compliance and risk management. The experience of the United States shows positive results in both safety and economics. The INPO and NRC metrics presented show that the use of risk information in operations and regulation is marginally better with no degradation in safety when plants that have embraced risk-informed approaches are compared

  18. STATE AID AND COMPETITIVENESS COMPOSED INDICATORS FOR ROMANIA AND SLECTED EU MEMBER STATES. A COMPARATIVE ANALISYS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DODESCU D.B. ANCA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Despite the proclaimed revival of the industrial policy, state aid granted by the EU still remain at a concerning low level. This may be explained by EU’s unique institutional achitecture, that allows the European Commission to monitor and restrict state aid related activities in the member states. Relying on 2007 –2013 statistical data published by Eurostat, AMECO and OCDE data bases, the main purpose of this paper refers to determining the corelation between state aid authorised by the European Comission for Romania and some selected member states and their competitiveness level, in the period 2007 – 2013. Even if the member states government would know which industry of company should br supported, the actual allocation of the public fund is strongly influenced by legitime interests. Therefor, state aid allocation is usualy dependent on political considerations and on the negotiation power of the involved parties, rather than on economic objectives. The main purose of this paper is the following: firstly to determine the relation State Ais – Competitiveness, analysing the cases of Romania, Germany, France, Austria and Poland between 2007 and 2013; and secondly t determine if there is a measurable impact at national level, and to identify new growth possibilities of state aid efficiency. Our main hypothesys is analysed with the help of an original system consisting in competitiveness agregated indicators and their corespondents from the state aid field, and the results obtained are graphicaly presented. This paper is based on the research for the PhD thesis entitled Competition versus competitineness. State aid impact in Romania in the context of EU integration context

  19. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  20. Scientific practices and social behaviors in managing landslide risks: comparing experiences between developing and developed countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    A successful landslide risk reduction program requires that the society is aware and understand the landslide problems within the geographic area involved. Central organizations that manage national landslide risks should: a) create and systematically applied natural hazard laws/national landslide strategies, where roles and limits of responsibilities of federal, state, provincial, municipal and private entities are well defined; c) establish fruitful multidisciplinary and interinstitutional collaboration among scientists; d) provide good risk assessments in which landslide experts report transparently what is really known and the limitations of methods and tools used; e) share and systematically communicate their knowledge more effectively with all private and public stakeholders involved, paying attention to providing balanced information about risks and addressing inevitable uncertainties; f) support the mass-media in spreading correct scientific information; g) perform serious risk and cost-benefit analyses before mitigation measures are realized; h) assist local authorities in the application of land-use planning policies and g) built trust and confidence by means of a continuous contact and communication with the public and local authorities. However, this is not yet achieved, not even in developed countries where, in theory, more economical resources are available and people are better educated then in developing countries. Herein I make some observations on how national landslide prevention efforts are being organized in two countries (Nicaragua and Norway), where I have been worked at governmental agencies as landslide expert in the last 10 years. I start describing similarities and differences between the countries and try to compare practices and experiences. The analysis was motivated by the following questions: Why after so many years of landslide mapping and investigations, landslide prevention is not good and effective as it should be? Is this

  1. Cryptosporidium surveillance and risk factors in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, Jonathan S; Beach, Michael J

    2010-01-01

    Surveillance for Cryptosporidium in the United States indicates that the reported incidence of infection has increased dramatically since 2004. The reasons for this increase are unclear but might be caused by an actual increase in incidence, improved surveillance, improved awareness about cryptosporidiosis, and/or increases in testing practices resulting from the licensing of the first-ever treatment for cryptosporidiosis. While regional differences remain, the incidence of cryptosporidiosis appears to be increasing across the United States. Onset of illness is most common during the summer, particularly among younger children. Cryptosporidiosis case reporting also influences outbreak detection and reporting; the recent rise in cases coincides with an increase in the number of reported cryptosporidiosis outbreaks, particularly in treated recreational water venues. Risk factors include ingesting contaminated recreational or drinking water, exposure to infected animals, having close contacts with cryptosporidiosis, travel to disease-endemic areas, and ingestion of contaminated food. Advances in molecular characterization of clinical specimens have improved our understanding of the changing epidemiology and risk factors. Prevention and control of cryptosporidiosis requires continued efforts to interrupt the transmission of Cryptosporidium through water, food, and contact with infected persons or animals. Of particular importance is continued improvement and monitoring of drinking water treatment and advances in the design, operation, and management of recreational water venues coupled with behavioral changes among the swimming public. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Racialized risk environments in a large sample of people who inject drugs in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Hannah L F; Linton, Sabriya; Kelley, Mary E; Ross, Zev; Wolfe, Mary E; Chen, Yen-Tyng; Zlotorzynska, Maria; Hunter-Jones, Josalin; Friedman, Samuel R; Des Jarlais, Don; Semaan, Salaam; Tempalski, Barbara; DiNenno, Elizabeth; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

    2016-01-01

    Substantial racial/ethnic disparities exist in HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in many countries. To strengthen efforts to understand the causes of disparities in HIV-related outcomes and eliminate them, we expand the "Risk Environment Model" to encompass the construct "racialized risk environments," and investigate whether PWID risk environments in the United States are racialized. Specifically, we investigate whether black and Latino PWID are more likely than white PWID to live in places that create vulnerability to adverse HIV-related outcomes. As part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, 9170 PWID were sampled from 19 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2009. Self-reported data were used to ascertain PWID race/ethnicity. Using Census data and other administrative sources, we characterized features of PWID risk environments at four geographic scales (i.e., ZIP codes, counties, MSAs, and states). Means for each feature of the risk environment were computed for each racial/ethnic group of PWID, and were compared across racial/ethnic groups. Almost universally across measures, black PWID were more likely than white PWID to live in environments associated with vulnerability to adverse HIV-related outcomes. Compared to white PWID, black PWID lived in ZIP codes with higher poverty rates and worse spatial access to substance abuse treatment and in counties with higher violent crime rates. Black PWID were less likely to live in states with laws facilitating sterile syringe access (e.g., laws permitting over-the-counter syringe sales). Latino/white differences in risk environments emerged at the MSA level (e.g., Latino PWID lived in MSAs with higher drug-related arrest rates). PWID risk environments in the US are racialized. Future research should explore the implications of this racialization for racial/ethnic disparities in HIV-related outcomes, using appropriate methods. Copyright © 2015

  3. State Debt of the Republic of Moldova as Essential Factor of the Country Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodica HINCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available State Debt of the Republic of Moldova as Essential Factor of the Country Risk Abstract: This paper discusses issues concerning of the state debt risk related to the Republic of Moldova and the determinants of the state debt in the context of the country risk. Special attention is devoted to analyzing the dynamics and structure of Moldova's foreign debt by currency and sector, in terms of the components parts of the foreign debt risk of Moldova - refinancing risk, currency risk and interest rate risk. It is analyzed the external state debt, publicly guaranteed, and non-guaranteed private external debt.

  4. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

  5. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: consumer perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueland, Ø; Gunnlaugsdottir, H; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit and risk perception with respect to food consumption, have been a part of human daily life from beginning of time. In today's society the food chain is long with many different types of actors and low degree of transparency. Making informed food choices where knowledge of benefits and risks is part of the decision making process are therefore complicated for consumers. Thus, to understand how consumers perceive benefits and risks of foods, their importance in relation to quality evaluations are aspects that need to be addressed. The objective of this paper is to discuss state of the art in understanding consumer perceptions of benefits and risks of foods in order to improve understanding of consumer behaviour in the food domain. Risks may be associated with both acute and long term consequences, some of which may have serious effects. Perceived risks are connected to morbidity and mortality along two dimensions relating to unknown risk, and to which extent the risk is dreaded by the consumer. Unfamiliar, uncertain, unknown, uncontrollable, and severe consequences are some factors associated with risk perception. Novel food processing techniques, for instance, score high on several of these parameters and are consequently regarded with suspicion and perceived as risky by consumers. On a daily basis, benefits of foods and food consumption are more important in most consumers' minds than risks. Benefits are often associated with food's ability to assuage hunger, and to provide pleasure through eating and socialising. In addition, two main categories of benefits that are important for acceptance of product innovations are health and environmental benefits. Benefit and risk perception of foods seem to be inversely correlated, so when something is perceived as being highly beneficial, it is correspondingly perceived as having low risk. However, slightly different paths are used in the formation of these perceptions; benefit perception is based on heuristics and

  6. Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

    2012-07-01

    This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Postprandial lipemia detects the effect of soy protein on cardiovascular disease risk compared with the fasting lipid profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo, Antonio S; Santo, Ariana M; Browne, Richard W; Burton, Harold; Leddy, John J; Horvath, Steven M; Horvath, Peter J

    2010-12-01

    Studies examining the effect of soy protein on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors have not taken advantage of the postprandial state as an adjunct to the fasting lipid profile. The American Heart Association has acknowledged the efficacy of soy protein in reducing CVD risk factors to be limited. We hypothesized that the postprandial state would be more sensitive to any favorable changes associated with consuming soy protein compared with the fasting lipid profile. Furthermore, the presence of isoflavones in soy would enhance this effect. Thirty sedentary males aged 18-30 years were randomly assigned to milk protein (Milk), isoflavone-poor soy (Soy-), or isoflavone-rich soy (Soy+). Usual diets were supplemented with 25 g/day of protein for 28 days. Serum samples were collected before and after supplementation in a fasted state and postprandially at 30, 60, 120, 240, and 360 min after a high-fat, 1,000 kcal shake. Triacylglycerol (TAG), total cholesterol, non-esterified fatty acids, apolipoproteins B-100 and A-I and glucose concentrations were quantified. Fasting concentrations were not different after any protein supplementation. Postprandial TAG and TAG AUC increased after Soy-consumption supporting the postprandial state as a more sensitive indicator of soy ingestion effects on CVD risk factors compared with the fasting lipid profile. Furthermore, the absence of isoflavones in soy protein may have deleterious consequences on purported cardio-protective effects.

  8. 76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of... INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis and Management.... These standard routine uses apply to State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records. POLICIES AND...

  9. Resting-state theta-band connectivity and verbal memory in schizophrenia and in the high-risk state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreou, Christina; Leicht, Gregor; Nolte, Guido; Polomac, Nenad; Moritz, Steffen; Karow, Anne; Hanganu-Opatz, Ileana L; Engel, Andreas K; Mulert, Christoph

    2015-02-01

    Disturbed functional connectivity is assumed to underlie neurocognitive deficits in patients with schizophrenia. As neurocognitive deficits are already present in the high-risk state, identification of the neural networks involved in this core feature of schizophrenia is essential to our understanding of the disorder. Resting-state studies enable such investigations, while at the same time avoiding the known confounder of impaired task performance in patients. The aim of the present study was to investigate EEG resting-state connectivity in high-risk individuals (HR) compared to first episode patients with schizophrenia (SZ) and to healthy controls (HC), and its association with cognitive deficits. 64-channel resting-state EEG recordings (eyes closed) were obtained for 28 HR, 19 stable SZ, and 23 HC, matched for age, education, and parental education. The imaginary coherence-based multivariate interaction measure (MIM) was used as a measure of connectivity across 80 cortical regions and six frequency bands. Mean connectivity at each region was compared across groups using the non-parametric randomization approach. Additionally, the network-based statistic was applied to identify affected networks in patients. SZ displayed increased theta-band resting-state MIM connectivity across midline, sensorimotor, orbitofrontal regions and the left temporoparietal junction. HR displayed intermediate theta-band connectivity patterns that did not differ from either SZ or HC. Mean theta-band connectivity within the above network partially mediated verbal memory deficits in SZ and HR. Aberrant theta-band connectivity may represent a trait characteristic of schizophrenia associated with neurocognitive deficits. As such, it might constitute a promising target for novel treatment applications. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Disclosure and rationality: comparative risk information and decision-making about prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Peter H

    2009-01-01

    With the growing focus on prevention in medicine, studies of how to describe risk have become increasing important. Recently, some researchers have argued against giving patients "comparative risk information," such as data about whether their baseline risk of developing a particular disease is above or below average. The concern is that giving patients this information will interfere with their consideration of more relevant data, such as the specific chance of getting the disease (the "personal risk"), the risk reduction the treatment provides, and any possible side effects. I explore this view and the theories of rationality that ground it, and I argue instead that comparative risk information can play a positive role in decision-making. The criticism of disclosing this sort of information to patients, I conclude, rests on a mistakenly narrow account of the goals of prevention and the nature of rational choice in medicine.

  11. Quantifying women's stated benefit-risk trade-off preferences for IBS treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F Reed; Hauber, A Brett; Ozdemir, Semra; Lynd, Larry

    2010-01-01

    The Food and Drug Administration, currently, is exploring quantitative benefit-risk methods to support regulatory decision-making. A scientifically valid method for assessing patients' benefit-risk trade-off preferences is needed to compare risks and benefits in a common metric. The study aims to quantify the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) of treatment-related adverse events (AEs) that women with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are willing to accept in exchange for symptom relief. A stated-choice survey was used to elicit trade-off preferences among constructed treatment profiles, each defined by symptom severity and treatment-related AEs. Symptom attributes included frequency of abdominal pain and discomfort, frequency of diarrhea, and frequency of urgency. AE attributes included frequency of mild-to-moderate constipation and the risk of four possible serious AEs. A Web-enabled survey was administered to 589 female US residents at least 18 years of age with a self-reported diagnosis of diarrhea-predominant IBS. Preference weights and MAR were estimated using mixed-logit methods. SUBJECTS were willing to accept higher risks of serious AEs in return for treatments offering better symptom control. For an improvement from the lowest to the highest of four benefit levels, subjects were willing to tolerate a 2.65% increase in impacted-bowel risk, but only a 1.34% increase in perforated-bowel risk. Variation in MARs across AE types is consistent with the relative seriousness of the AEs. Stated-preference methods offer a scientifically valid approach to quantifying benefit-risk trade-off preferences that can be used to inform regulatory decision-making.

  12. The Right Trajectory: State Teachers of the Year Compare Former and New State Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClellan, Catherine; Joe, Jilliam; Bassett, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    "The Right Trajectory" brings to the forefront an often-overlooked voice in the debate about new state assessments developed in consortia: that of the best teachers in the country. This research suggests, despite challenges still to overcome, that these front-line experts believe that the new consortia tests are an improvement on the…

  13. Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

  14. Risk communication policy design: Cyprus compared to France and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tourenq, Sophie; Boustras, George; Gutteling, Jan M.

    2017-01-01

    This study aims at analyzing differences between risk communication policies in Cyprus, compared to the Netherlands, and France. It analyzes risk communication policies indirectly through a qualitative analysis of the information provided by official websites, which are considered to be proxies of

  15. Comparative analysis of three screening instruments for autism spectrum disorder in toddlers at high risk.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterling, I.J.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Gaag, R.J. van der; Visser, J.C.; Dietz, C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

    2009-01-01

    Several instruments have been developed to screen for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in high-risk populations. However, few studies compare different instruments in one sample. Data were gathered from the Early Screening of Autistic Traits Questionnaire, Social Communication Questionnaire,

  16. Experience of the use of comparative evaluations of risks in the public discussion about nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borsch, P.

    1983-01-01

    In the nuclear controversy the risks of nuclear facilities play a major role. An evaluation of these risks is possible only by comparison with other risks to which people are exposed. For this purpose the selection of suitable comparative risk sources is important. But even if appropriate risk sources have been chosen, there will always be some rest dimensions which are difficult to encompass into the comparison. Among these problems are: the maximum damage, the time frame, the practical experience with a risk source, the different composition of the risk (death, injuries, cancers etc.), the uncertainty of risk assessment results, especially for chronic and late effects. One has to pay attention to these obstacles of comparing risks in the public discussion. Experience shows that risk comparison will be easier accepted if one explicitly refers to this difficulty. Also the different components of risks have to be presented, at least from its basic concept. An interesting possibility is the comparison of different risks with regard to their shortening of life expectancy. This common delimiter has to be used with care, since some comparisons decrease the probability of public acceptance for this method. Nevertheless this method provides a good illustration, of how small e.g. the risk of low doses of ionizing radiation is in comparison to smoking cigarettes. In any case it has to be pointed out that risk is not the only criterion for decisions about a technology, but that other factors like economics, fuel supply, degree of technical development have to be taken into account

  17. The comparative burden of salmonellosis in the European Union member states, associated and candidate countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Jong Birgitta

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Salmonella is an infectious agents causing numerous cases of illness each year, and thereby having significant economic impact. Using returning Swedish travellers we estimated the burden of salmonellosis in different European countries. Methods From the Swedish database on notifiable communicable diseases 15,864 cases with travel-associated salmonellosis acquired in Europe from 1997–2003 were retrieved. These cases were compared to a dataset from the same years on 14,171 randomly selected Swedish residents, with a history of recent overnight travel in Europe. Distribution of salmonellosis in returning travellers and the distribution of Salmonella Enteritidis was analysed for different member states in the European Union, associated and candidate countries. The risk of being notified with a salmonella infection after return from each European country/region was calculated, and compared with official reporting data rom these countries. Using Norway as reference country, we could 1 construct comparable incidence estimates and 2 calculate the "under-reporting" in each country compared to Norway. Results The highest burden of salmonellosis was estimated for Bulgaria (2741/100,000, followed by Turkey with 2344/100 000 and Malta with 2141/100 000. S. Enteritidis is the dominating serotype, 66.9 % of all cases and phage type 4 accounts for 37.5 % of the S. Enteritidis cases Conclusion Using returning tourists as a sentinel population can provide a useful base for comparison of disease burdens in different countries/regions. Focusing prevention of salmonellosis to prevention of egg and poultry associated S. Enteritidis infection will have a major impact from a public health perspective and will significantly lower the burden of disease in most European countries.

  18. Adult mortality attributable to preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan: a comparative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayu Ikeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000-154,000 and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000-119,000, respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000-58,000, high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000-43,000, high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000-39,000, and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000-35,000. In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3-1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7 if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. CONCLUSIONS

  19. Comparing risk profiles of individuals diagnosed with diabetes by OGTT and HbA1c

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borg, R.; Vistisen, D.; Witte, D.R.

    2010-01-01

    Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods.......Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods....

  20. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

  1. Firearms and suicide in the United States: is risk independent of underlying suicidal behavior?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew; Barber, Catherine; White, Richard A; Azrael, Deborah

    2013-09-15

    On an average day in the United States, more than 100 Americans die by suicide; half of these suicides involve the use of firearms. In this ecological study, we used linear regression techniques and recently available state-level measures of suicide attempt rates to assess whether, and if so, to what extent, the well-established relationship between household firearm ownership rates and suicide mortality persists after accounting for rates of underlying suicidal behavior. After controlling for state-level suicide attempt rates (2008-2009), higher rates of firearm ownership (assessed in 2004) were strongly associated with higher rates of overall suicide and firearm suicide, but not with nonfirearm suicide (2008-2009). Furthermore, suicide attempt rates were not significantly related to gun ownership levels. These findings suggest that firearm ownership rates, independent of underlying rates of suicidal behavior, largely determine variations in suicide mortality across the 50 states. Our results support the hypothesis that firearms in the home impose suicide risk above and beyond the baseline risk and help explain why, year after year, several thousand more Americans die by suicide in states with higher than average household firearm ownership compared with states with lower than average firearm ownership.

  2. The perceived health risks of indoor radon gas and overhead powerlines: a comparative multilevel approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poortinga, Wouter; Cox, Patrick; Pidgeon, Nick F

    2008-02-01

    Radon and overhead powerlines are two radiation risk cases that have raised varying levels of concern among the general public and experts. Despite both involving radiation-a typically feared and unseen health hazard-individuals' perceptions of the two risk cases may invoke rather different factors. We examined individual and geographic-contextual factors influencing public perceptions of the health risks of indoor radon gas and overhead powerlines in a comparative research design, utilizing a postal questionnaire with 1,528 members of the general public (response rate 28%) and multilevel modeling techniques. This study found that beliefs about the two risk cases mainly differed according to the level of "exposure"-defined here in terms of spatial proximity. We argue that there are two alternative explanations for this pattern of findings: that risk perception itself varies directly with proximity, or that risk is more salient to concerned people in the exposed areas. We also found that while people living in high radon areas are more concerned about the risks of indoor radon gas, they find these risks more acceptable and have more trust in authorities. These results might reflect the positive effects of successive radon campaigns in high radon areas, which may have raised awareness and concern, and at the same time may have helped to increase trust by showing that the government takes the health risks of indoor radon gas seriously, suggesting that genuine risk communication initiatives may have positive impacts on trust in risk management institutions.

  3. The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steger, U.

    1981-01-01

    The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs......), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR......) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated...

  5. At risk of being risky: The relationship between "brain age" under emotional states and risk preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, Marc D; Miranda-Domínguez, Oscar; Cohen, Alexandra O; Breiner, Kaitlyn; Steinberg, Laurence; Bonnie, Richard J; Scott, Elizabeth S; Taylor-Thompson, Kim; Chein, Jason; Fettich, Karla C; Richeson, Jennifer A; Dellarco, Danielle V; Galván, Adriana; Casey, B J; Fair, Damien A

    2017-04-01

    Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N=212; 10-25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the "brain age" of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that "brain age" across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts) relates to a group mean difference in risk perception - a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18-21). The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at "risk to be risky." Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. A comparative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in prepackaged versus retail-sliced deli meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endrikat, Sarah; Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hicks Quesenberry, Heather; Labarre, David; Schroeder, Carl M; Kause, Janell

    2010-04-01

    Deli meat was ranked as the highest-risk ready-to-eat food vehicle of Listeria monocytogenes within the 2003 U.S. Food and Drug Administration and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service risk assessment. The comparative risk of L. monocytogenes in retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was evaluated with a modified version of this model. Other research has found that retail-sliced deli meats have both higher prevalence and levels of L. monocytogenes than have product sliced and packaged at the manufacturer level. The updated risk assessment model considered slicing location as well as the use of growth inhibitors. The per annum comparative risk ratio for the number of deaths from retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was found to be 4.89, and the per-serving comparative risk ratio was 4.27. There was a significant interaction between the use of growth inhibitors and slicing location. Almost 70% of the estimated deaths occurred from retail-sliced product that did not possess a growth inhibitor. A sensitivity analysis, assessing the effect of the model's consumer storage time and shelf life assumptions, found that even if retail-sliced deli meats were stored for a quarter of the time prepackaged deli meats were stored, retail-sliced product is 1.7 times more likely to result in death from listeriosis. Sensitivity analysis also showed that the shelf life assumption had little effect on the comparative risk ratio.

  7. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Development and distribution of radon risk maps in New York State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitto, M.E.; Kunz, C.O.; New York State Univ., Albany, NY; Green, J.G.

    2001-01-01

    Radon maps for each county in New York State have been developed on the township level indicating the percent of homes with ≥ 148 Bq/m 3 (4 pCi/l) in the indoor air of the basement and living area. Estimates are based on a combination of nearly 45,000 basement-screening measurements and correlations to surficial geology. Many of the towns and cities in the State with the highest average indoor radon concentrations are located on highly-permeable gravelly soils formed during the retreat of the Wisconsinan Glaciation. As many towns (32% of total) had ≤ 5 measurements, a project to obtain additional measurements in high-risk towns produced results comparable to estimates based on correlations to surficial geology. Radon risk maps for each county have been distributed to municipal governments, schools, and professionals in activities related to homes, buildings, and indoor air quality. (author)

  9. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  10. Type 2 diabetes risk alleles demonstrate extreme directional differentiation among human populations, compared to other diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Chen

    Full Text Available Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may

  11. Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

    2011-10-01

    Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Persistent Latent Tuberculosis Reactivation Risk in United States Immigrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, John; Parker, Matthew; Lowenthal, Phillip; Flood, Jennifer; Fu, Yunxin; Asis, Redentor; Reves, Randall

    2014-01-01

    Rationale: Current guidelines limit latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) evaluation to persons in the United States less than or equal to 5 years based on the assumption that high TB rates among recent entrants are attributable to high LTBI reactivation risk, which declines over time. We hypothesized that high postarrival TB rates may instead be caused by imported active TB. Objectives: Estimate reactivation and imported TB in an immigrant cohort. Methods: We linked preimmigration records from a cohort of California-bound Filipino immigrants during 2001–2010 with subsequent TB reports. TB was likely LTBI reactivation if the immigrant had no evidence of active TB at preimmigration examination, likely imported if preimmigration radiograph was abnormal and TB was reported less than or equal to 6 months after arrival, and likely reactivation of inactive TB if radiograph was abnormal but TB was reported more than 6 months after arrival. Measurements and Main Results: Among 123,114 immigrants, 793 TB cases were reported. Within 1 year of preimmigration examination, 85% of TB was imported; 6 and 9% were reactivation of LTBI and inactive TB, respectively. Conversely, during Years 2–9 after U.S. entry, 76 and 24% were reactivation of LTBI and inactive TB, respectively. The rate of LTBI reactivation (32 per 100,000) did not decline during Years 1–9. Conclusions: High postarrival TB rates were caused by detection of imported TB through active postarrival surveillance. Among immigrants without active TB at baseline, reported TB did not decline over 9 years, indicating sustained high risk of LTBI reactivation. Revised guidelines should support LTBI screening and treatment more than 5 years after U.S. arrival. PMID:24308495

  13. Comparative Health Risk Assessment of CdTe Solar PV System and Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    In terms of national energy policy decision-making process, several key factors, including low production cost, negligible risk or impact to environment and population around the facility, must be considered. The purpose of this paper is to assess the public health risk in case of postulated nuclear power plant and CdTe solar PV system accident and compare the estimated public health risk. Both systems release toxic materials to the environment which adversely affect nearby population by exposure from the inhalation and ingestion of the toxic material transported via air. By simulating the airborne transport of released toxic material using Gaussian plume model and modeling exposure pathways to nearby population, average individual health risk is assessed and public health risk per power capacity of each system is compared. The result shows that the average public health risk per power capacity of NPP is less than the case of solar PV system. This implies that NPP has lower risk in terms of public health risk in case of severe accident while it can be used as more reliable energy source than renewable energy source so that NPP would take priority over other renewable energy sources in terms of national energy policy

  14. Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

    2018-01-01

    Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  16. State-of-the-art risk-based approach to spill contingency planning and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, Dagmar; Reilly, Timothy; French McCay, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes incorporating a comprehensive examination of spill risk into risk management and contingency planning, and applying state-of-the-art modeling tools to evaluate various alternatives for appropriate spill response measures and optimize protective responses. The approach allows spill contingency planners and decision-makers to determine the types of spill scenarios that may occur in a particular location or from a particular source and calculate the probability distribution of the various scenarios. The spill probability information is useful in assessing and putting into perspective the various costs options for spill control systems that will be recommended ultimately. Using advanced modeling tools helps in estimating the potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of each spill scenario based on location-specific factors over a range of stochastic possibilities, simulating spill scenarios and determining optimal responses and protection strategies. The benefits and costs of various response alternatives and variations in response time can be calculated and modeling tools for training and risk allocation/transfer purposes used.

  17. United States and Israeli Homeland Security: A Comparative Analysis of Emergency Preparedness Efforts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pockett, Consuella B

    2005-01-01

    This paper will provide a comparative analysis of the United States (U.S.) Department of Homeland Security's Emergency Preparedness and Response directorate and the Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command...

  18. Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

    2018-04-01

    In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cerović Julija

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of value at risk gives estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. The motivation for this analysis lies in the desire to devote necessary attention to risks in Montenegro, and to approach to quantifying and managing risk more thoroughly. Objectives: This paper considers adequacy of the most recent approaches for quantifying market risk, especially of methods that are in the basis of extreme value theory, in Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether extreme value theory outperforms econometric and quantile evaluation of VaR in emerging stock markets such as Montenegrin market. Methods/Approach: Daily return of Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January, 2004 - February, 2014. Value at Risk results based on GARCH models, quantile estimation and extreme value theory are compared. Results: Results of the empirical analysis show that the assessments of Value at Risk based on extreme value theory outperform econometric and quantile evaluations. Conclusions: It is obvious that econometric evaluations (ARMA(2,0- GARCH(1,1 and RiskMetrics proved to be on the lower bound of possible Value at Risk movements. Risk estimation on emerging markets can be focused on methodology using extreme value theory that is more sophisticated as it has been proven to be the most cautious model when dealing with turbulent times and financial turmoil.

  20. Challenges for Teachers of Religious Education in Catholic and State Schools in Poland: A Comparative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makosa, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    The present work aims at presenting and comparing challenges faced by religion teachers in Catholic and state schools in Poland. For that purpose, 10 religion teachers from Catholic and 10 from state high schools were interviewed. First of all, the concept of teaching religion was discussed, followed by an analysis of the Catholic schools'…

  1. Poverty and the Income Package of Working Parents: The United States in Comparative Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainwater, Lee

    1995-01-01

    Examines poverty rates among families with children in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Compares the United States' rates to each of these countries to highlight the role of sickness insurance, child allowances, child support, income-tested social assistance, unemployment…

  2. Comparative analysis of design codes for timber bridges in Canada, the United States, and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Wacker; James (Scott) Groenier

    2010-01-01

    The United States recently completed its transition from the allowable stress design code to the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) reliability-based code for the design of most highway bridges. For an international perspective on the LRFD-based bridge codes, a comparative analysis is presented: a study addressed national codes of the United States, Canada, and...

  3. No increased risk of developing depression in diabetes compared to other chronic illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Nilsson, Flemming Mørkeberg; Siersma, Volkert

    2003-01-01

    of patients. There was no difference in the risk for Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. It is concluded that older patients with diabetes do not seem to have an increased risk of developing severe depression compared with patients with other chronic illness.......Several studies have found that the prevalence of depression in patients with diabetes is higher than in the general population but it is unclear whether patients with diabetes have an increased risk of developing depression compared with patients with other chronic illnesses. In a nationwide case...... register study, all patients who had a discharge diagnosis of diabetes or of osteoarthritis at first admission in a period from 1977 to 1997 were identified. The probability of being readmitted and discharged with a diagnosis of depression was estimated with competing risks models in survival analysis...

  4. Barriers, Risks and Policies for Renewables in the Gulf States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Lilliestam

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC have both large fossil fuel resources and vast renewable energy potentials. Here, we investigate in a literature meta-analysis and a survey, whether there is a need for renewables in the GCC, what barriers and risks presently deter investments, and what possible policy-solutions could be. We find that there is a long-term need for renewables, to diversify the economy and prepare for a post-fossil fuel era. In the short term, two main obstacles deter investments: inefficient bureaucracy, and the combination of fossil fuel/electricity subsidies and the absence of renewable energy support. Removing fossil fuel and consumption subsidies or introducing a support scheme could make investments in renewables profitable. Eliminating energy subsidies appears particularly beneficial to the economic outlook but this seems particularly difficult to implement, due to the political economy of rentier states. Increased bureaucratic transparency and efficiency is needed, so that potentially attractive investments can rapidly and predictably obtain the necessary permissions. Hence, the administrative and economic environment for renewable energy investments in the GCC is not right today, and no breakthrough is on the horizon, but there is a range of policy solutions to enable investments in the future.

  5. The Risk of Hypertension and Other Chronic Diseases: Comparing Smokeless Tobacco with Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Anand

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundIn the past, studies have compared smokeless tobacco and non-tobacco users for the risk of various chronic diseases. The differences in the risk of chronic diseases between smokeless tobacco user and smokers have not been explored. The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of chronic diseases among smokeless tobacco users compared to smokers.MethodsThe data were used from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE Wave-1, conducted in 2007–2008 in India. The study sample is the respondents who reported consuming any form of tobacco in last 1 month. The total sample size was 4,038 respondents. The odds ratio of chronic morbidities was estimated taking smokers as the reference category.ResultsThe odds ratios for (self-reported diabetes, asthma, and hypertension were not significant for smokeless tobacco user compared to smoked tobacco users. The odds ratio of chronic lung diseases (CLDs was significantly lower among smokeless tobacco users compared to smoked tobacco users. The odds ratio of hypertension (measured combined with low education and belonging to lowest wealth quintiles were not significant for smokeless tobacco users compared to smoked tobacco users. Duration of the use of smokeless tobacco and quantity of use was found to have no significant relation with risk of chronic diseases as compared to smoking.ConclusionThis study did not find the significantly higher risk of chronic morbidities except for CLD for smokeless tobacco users compared to smoked tobacco users. The study suggests that the use of any form of tobacco may have a similar risk of chronic diseases.

  6. A proposed methodology for performing risk analysis of state radiation control programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornsife, W.P.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is comprised of viewgraphs from a conference presentation. Topics discussed include barriers to effective risk assessment and management, and real versus perceived risk for various radiation programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Calculation results for Pennsylvania are provided for low-level radioactive waste transportation risks, indoor radon risk, and cancer morbidity risk from x-rays. A methodology for prioritizing radiation regulatory programs based on risk is presented with calculations for various Pennsylvania programs

  7. Risk of Suicidal Events With Atomoxetine Compared to Stimulant Treatment: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Stephan; Bussing, Regina; Kubilis, Paul; Gerhard, Tobias; Segal, Richard; Shuster, Jonathan J; Winterstein, Almut G

    2016-05-01

    Antidepressant effects on increased suicidality in children have raised public concern in recent years. Approved in 2002 for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder treatment, the selective noradrenalin-reuptake-inhibitor atomoxetine was initially investigated for the treatment of depression. In post-hoc analyses of clinical trial data, atomoxetine has been associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation in children and adolescents. We analyzed whether the observed increased risk of suicidal ideation in clinical trials translates into an increased risk of suicidal events in pediatric patients treated with atomoxetine compared with stimulants in 26 Medicaid programs. Employing a retrospective cohort design, we used propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the risk of suicide and suicide attempt in pediatric patients initiating treatment with atomoxetine compared with stimulants from 2002 to 2006. The first-line treatment cohort included 279 315 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.95 (95% CI 0.47-1.92, P = .88). The second-line treatment cohort included 220 215 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.71 (95% CI 0.30-1.67, P = .43). First- and second-line treatment of youths age 5 to 18 with atomoxetine compared with stimulants was not significantly associated with an increased risk of suicidal events. The low incidence of suicide and suicide attempt resulted in wide confidence intervals and did not allow stratified analysis of high-risk groups or assessment of suicidal risk associated with long-term use of atomoxetine. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  8. We can do better than effective dose for estimating or comparing low-dose radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    The effective dose concept was designed to compare the generic risks of exposure to different radiation fields. More commonly these days, it is used to estimate or compare radiation-induced cancer risks. For various reasons, effective dose represents flawed science: for instance, the tissue-specific weighting factors used to calculate effective dose are a subjective mix of different endpoints; and the marked and differing age and gender dependencies for different health detriment endpoints are not taken into account. This paper suggests that effective dose could be replaced with a new quantity, ‘effective risk’, which, like effective dose, is a weighted sum of equivalent doses to different tissues. Unlike effective dose, where the tissue-dependent weighting factors are a set of generic, subjective committee-defined numbers, the weighting factors for effective risk are simply evaluated tissue-specific lifetime cancer risks per unit equivalent dose. Effective risk, which has the potential to be age and gender specific if desired, would perform the same comparative role as effective dose, be just as easy to estimate, be less prone to misuse, be more directly understandable, and would be based on solid science. An added major advantage is that it gives the users some feel for the actual numerical values of the radiation risks they are trying to control.

  9. [Psychosocial risk factors in adolescent tobacco use: negative mood-states, peer group and parenting styles].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julià Cano, Albert; Escapa Solanas, Sandra; Marí-Klose, Marga; Marí-Klose, Pau

    2012-01-01

    There are multiple factors that can affect the risk of tobacco use in adolescence. By analyzing these factors together we can disentangle the specific relevance of each of them in shaping teenagers' individual behavior. The goal of this research study is to deepen our understanding of the relationship between tobacco use in adolescence and socio-demographic and socio-emotional variables. We worked with a representative sample of 2,289 Catalan teenagers (aged 15-18) who responded to a questionnaire drawn up by the Families and Children Panel. Regression models were developed to assess the statistical associations of different mood states (sadness, nervousness and loneliness), peer-group characteristics and parenting styles, with tobacco use. The results indicate that addictive behavior is more likely when teenagers show negative mood states, controlling for socio-demographic variables and other risk factors. Among these additional factors, authoritative parenting styles reduce the risk of tobacco use, compared to authoritarian, permissive and neglectful parenting. Extensive tobacco use within the peer group is the risk factor most strongly associated with teenagers' individual behavior.

  10. The meaning of results. Understanding comparative risk assessments of energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.; Holland, M.; Rabl, A.; Dreicer, M.

    1999-01-01

    Results of comparative risk assessments can be used for a range of potential applications: choice and balance of technologies for strategic energy planning; choice of a new power plant; optimal dispatching of existing plants; optimization of regulations (emission limits, environmental quality objectives such as air quality limits, tradable permits, pollution taxes); accounting for climate change. When reporting the results of comparative risk assessment, a number of factors should be clear: precise nature of the energy system being assessed; what has been excluded from the analysis; sources of data used in assessment; assumptions that have been made; and what the analysts and other experts have regarded as the key sensitivities in the analysis. If all factors are addressed, the results of comparative risk assessment will prove to be an essential resource for making the best decisions about energy options and policies

  11. One Idea of Portfolio Risk Control Focusing on States of Correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, Noboru

    2004-04-01

    In the modern portfolio theory there are 2 major risk parameters that mean and variance. Correlations should be playing important role as well but variance is thought to be most important risk parameter for risk control in the theory. I focused on states of correlation to calculate eigen values as risk control parameter.

  12. A comparative review of the isotretinoin pregnancy risk management programs across four continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovitwanichkanont, Tom; Driscoll, Tim

    2018-03-06

    Isotretinoin has revolutionized the treatment of severe acne vulgaris, a condition which if left untreated may result in significant socio-psychological implications for those affected. Timely access to isotretinoin therapy is important to avoid the risks of potential physical and emotional scarring. However, due to its high risks of teratogenicity, isotretinoin must be used with care in females of childbearing potential. Since isotretinoin's introduction, numerous risk management programs have been implemented across the world in an attempt to prevent isotretinoin use in pregnancy. This paper aims to provide an evidence-based review of the risk management programs for isotretinoin in Australia, Europe, Singapore, New Zealand, and the United States of America. The effectiveness of these programs and the factors leading to isotretinoin exposure in pregnancy are critically analyzed in an effort to inform the future direction with respect to designing the ideal regulatory program. Stringent risk management programs, such as the iPLEDGE in the US and Pregnancy Prevention Program (PPP) in Europe, may not be effective in reducing the risks of fetal exposure to isotretinoin when used alone. There is evidence that such strenuous regulation results in increased fear of teratogenic risks but does not translate into a reduced rate of pregnancies exposed to isotretinoin. A successful program must prioritize education about effective contraception, while minimizing any extraneous requirements, to ensure that women are not inadvertently undertreated for acne. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

  13. Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

  14. A quantitative and comparative evaluation of the risks from nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vignes, S.; Bertin, M.; Nenot, J.C.

    1980-01-01

    All the significant data for the assessment of risks from the operation of nuclear power plants was collected and these risks were compared with all the risks of modern life. The scientific bases for the evaluation of individual risks and detriment were defined by UNSCEAR (1977) and by ICRP 26 (1978). In different industries, the risk of death from long term occupational illness is about 130 to 14,000 per million workers. For accidental deaths, the risk is estimated at about 16 to 1,600. The risk for the nuclear industry is lower than 100 per million workers. Comparisons are made with different causes of lethality: deaths from atmospheric pollution (sulfur compounds and dusts) related to fossile fuel combustion; iatrogenic accidents attributed to some drugs used in medicine or to other kind of treatment; calculated mortality for workers exposed to asestosis. The nuclear industr of the safest. The only risk to be considered is the major accident, the probability of which is very low. (H.K.)

  15. Thiazolidinediones are associated with a decreased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with other antidiabetic treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pallisgaard, Jannik Langtved; Lindhardt, Tommi Bo; Staerk, Laila

    2017-01-01

    sensitizer that also has anti-inflammatory effects, which might decrease the risk of AF compared with other antidiabetic drugs. We used data from the Danish nationwide registries to study 108 624 patients with diabetes and without prior AF who were treated with metformin or sulfonylurea as first-line drugs...... drugs. The decreased risk of AF remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.76 (0.57-1.00), P = 0.047 associated with TZD treatment compared with other antidiabetic drugs. CONCLUSION: Use of a TZD to treat diabetes was associated with reduced...

  16. Images of welfare in law and society: the British welfare state in comparative perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wincott, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Designed by Beveridge and built by Attlee's post-war Labour government, the welfare state was created during the 1940s. Britain has been seen – in domestic debates and internationally – as a world first: the place where both the idea and the practice of the welfare state were invented. I draw together comparative welfare state analysis with law and society scholarship (previously largely developed in isolation from one another) – as well as using British political cartoons as a source – to develop a revisionist historical critique of this conventional wisdom. First, the British welfare state has always been comparatively parsimonious. Second, the idea of the welfare state seems to have its origins outside the United Kingdom and this terminology was adopted relatively late and with some ambivalence in public debate and scholarly analysis. Third, a large body of socio-legal scholarship shows that robust ‘welfare rights’ were never embedded in the British ‘welfare state’.

  17. The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

    2016-04-01

    A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Cardiac arrest risk standardization using administrative data compared to registry data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne V Grossestreuer

    Full Text Available Methods for comparing hospitals regarding cardiac arrest (CA outcomes, vital for improving resuscitation performance, rely on data collected by cardiac arrest registries. However, most CA patients are treated at hospitals that do not participate in such registries. This study aimed to determine whether CA risk standardization modeling based on administrative data could perform as well as that based on registry data.Two risk standardization logistic regression models were developed using 2453 patients treated from 2000-2015 at three hospitals in an academic health system. Registry and administrative data were accessed for all patients. The outcome was death at hospital discharge. The registry model was considered the "gold standard" with which to compare the administrative model, using metrics including comparing areas under the curve, calibration curves, and Bland-Altman plots. The administrative risk standardization model had a c-statistic of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.876-0.905 compared to a registry c-statistic of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.895-0.919. When limited to only non-modifiable factors, the administrative model had a c-statistic of 0.818 (95% CI: 0.799-0.838 compared to a registry c-statistic of 0.810 (95% CI: 0.788-0.831. All models were well-calibrated. There was no significant difference between c-statistics of the models, providing evidence that valid risk standardization can be performed using administrative data.Risk standardization using administrative data performs comparably to standardization using registry data. This methodology represents a new tool that can enable opportunities to compare hospital performance in specific hospital systems or across the entire US in terms of survival after CA.

  19. ADMINISTRATIVE SUPERVISION OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT IN THE BALTIC STATES: A COMPARATIVE VIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIOLETA KIURIENÉ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models of administrative supervision of local self-government in the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of these models. The research done in this article defines the theoretical concept of administrative supervision of local self-government; gives an overview of the legislative framework underpining the key administrative supervision bodies of local self-government in the Baltic States; discusses the issue of legal regulation and the present state of administrative supervision over local self-government units in the Baltic States; gives some theoretical and practical suggestions to develop this field in the Baltic States.The research methods employed in preparation of this article are theoretical methods of analysis of scientific literature and sources, legal acts and documents as well as comparative and logical analysis, induction and generalisation. Three Baltic States similar in their area, number of inhabitants, and governmental peculiarities have been chosen for the analysis.

  20. Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potakhin S.N.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

  1. Transitions in state public health law: comparative analysis of state public health law reform following the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Benjamin Mason; Hodge, James G; Gebbie, Kristine M

    2009-03-01

    Given the public health importance of law modernization, we undertook a comparative analysis of policy efforts in 4 states (Alaska, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) that have considered public health law reform based on the Turning Point Model State Public Health Act. Through national legislative tracking and state case studies, we investigated how the Turning Point Act's model legal language has been considered for incorporation into state law and analyzed key facilitating and inhibiting factors for public health law reform. Our findings provide the practice community with a research base to facilitate further law reform and inform future scholarship on the role of law as a determinant of the public's health.

  2. A comparative study of the use of different risk-assessment models in Danish municipalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kresta Munkholt

    2018-01-01

    Risk-assessment models are widely used in casework involving vulnerable children and families. Internationally, there are a number of different kinds of models with great variation in regard to the characteristics of factors that harm children. Lists of factors have been made but most of them give...... very little advice on how the factors should be weighted. This paper will address the use of risk-assessment models in six different Danish municipalities. The paper presents a comparative analysis and discussion of differences and similarities between three models: the Integrated Children’s System...... (ICS), the Signs of Safety (SoS) model and models developed by the municipalities themselves (MM). The analysis will answer the following two key questions: (i) to which risk and protective factors do the caseworkers give most weight in the risk assessment? and (ii) does each of the different models...

  3. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  4. Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, Peter; Eckle, Petrissa; Hirschberg, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    This study compared severe accident risks of fossil energy chains (coal, oil and natural gas), based on the historical experience contained in the comprehensive database ENSAD. Considered risk indicators focused on human health impacts, i.e., fatality rates and maximum consequences were calculated for a broad range of country groups. Generally, expected fatality rates were lowest for natural gas, intermediate for oil and highest for coal. Concerning maximum consequences of a single accident, natural gas also performed best, followed by coal, whereas accidents in the oil chain can claim significantly more fatalities. In general, OECD and EU 27 ranked top, while non-OECD countries and China in the case of coal were worst. The consideration of numerous additional country groups enabled a more detailed differentiation within the main bounding groups. Furthermore, differences among country groups are distinctly decreasing from coal to oil and natural gas, both for fatality rates and maximum consequences. The use of import adjusted-fatality rates indicates that fatality risks in supply countries are an essential aspect to understand how specific risk reduction strategies may affect other components of energy security, and thus tradeoffs and compromises are necessary. Finally, the proposed fatality risk score for fossil chains (FRS F ) allows a comparison of the combined accident risk for the considered fossil energy chains across individual countries, which can be visualized using risk mapping.

  5. An Examination of Farmworker Pesticide Educators in a Southeastern State: Informal Science Educators and Risk Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    LePrevost, Catherine E.

    2011-12-01

    agricultural labor force, and the general public. A second mixed-method, multi-case study investigated 19 farmworker pesticide educators from four types of institutions in this southeastern state. A quantitative questionnaire and semi-structured interviews were employed to explore teaching beliefs, pesticide risk beliefs, and self-efficacy beliefs of these informal science educators. Teaching beliefs of pesticide educators ranged from traditional to reform-based, with most being transitional (i.e., focused on educator/farmworker relationships). Findings indicate that these pesticide educators have expert-like beliefs about pesticide risk. A positive correlation (r = 0.455, p = 0.0578) existed between concern about adverse health outcomes associated with pesticides and student-centered teaching beliefs. Self-efficacy scores ranged from low to moderate, lower than is typically found in science teachers. Findings suggest an inverse relationship (r = -0.468, p = 0.0503) between self-efficacy and farmworker-focused beliefs about teaching. Patterns of beliefs were apparent for teaching, pesticide risk, and self-efficacy by institutional affiliation and number of training sessions provided. Study results have direct implications for modifications to teacher belief constructs and pesticide educator professional development. The third mixed methods study examines the state of pesticide education from an organizational perspective by comparing pesticide educators' (n=45) personal goals to those of their institutions and examining the factors that shape educators' teaching practices. Findings indicate that individuals from all institutions share goals to reduce exposure and ensure safety and health for farmworkers, regardless of the missions of their organizations. Pesticide educators described time, farmworker basic needs, the physical setting, institutional missions, and training and curricular materials as shaping their teaching practices and restricting their goal attainment. This

  6. Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

    2012-09-15

    Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  7. Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-03-29

    Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  8. Predictors for readmission risk of new patients : the Nordic Comparative Study on Sectorized Psychiatry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oiesvold, T; Saarento, O; Sytema, S; Vinding, H; Gostas, G; Lonnerberg, O; Muus, S; Sandlund, M; Hansson, L

    Objective: Predictors for readmission risk were investigated in this study, which forms part of the Nordic Comparative Study on Sectorized Psychiatry. Method: Included were a total of 837 consecutive 'new' patients (not in contact with the psychiatric services for at least 18 months) admitted to

  9. Awareness of risk factors for cancer: a comparative study of Sweden and Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada; Fischer Pedersen, Anette; Runesdotter, Sara; Vedsted, Peter; Tishelman, Carol

    2015-11-23

    Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors. Over 90 % of respondents in both countries recognized smoking, use of sunbeds and ionizing radiation as risk factors for cancer. Lowest awareness (awareness than Danish respondents for ten of the 13 risk factors studied. Respondents from Denmark reported higher awareness only regarding low fruit and vegetable intake and use of sunbeds. Low physical activity was the only risk factor for which there was no difference in awareness between the countries. A decline in awareness was generally seen with increasing age in both countries, but deviating patterns were seen for alcohol intake, red/processed meat, obesity and age 70+. This study supports findings from other European studies that generally demonstrate modest public awareness of many established cancer risk factors. Efforts should be made to improve awareness of the cancer risk factors HPV-infection, low fruit and vegetable intake and alcohol intake, which showed particularly low awareness in both countries. Previous studies indicate that repeated, broad campaigns are successful, and suggest that a multimedia approach is used.

  10. Comparative Pessimism or Optimism: Depressed Mood, Risk-Taking, Social Utility and Desirability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milhabet, Isabelle; Le Barbenchon, Emmanuelle; Cambon, Laurent; Molina, Guylaine

    2015-03-05

    Comparative optimism can be defined as a self-serving, asymmetric judgment of the future. It is often thought to be beneficial and socially accepted, whereas comparative pessimism is correlated with depression and socially rejected. Our goal was to examine the social acceptance of comparative optimism and the social rejection of comparative pessimism in two dimensions of social judgment, social desirability and social utility, considering the attributions of dysphoria and risk-taking potential (studies 2 and 3) on outlooks on the future. In three experiments, the participants assessed either one (study 1) or several (studies 2 and 3) fictional targets in two dimensions, social utility and social desirability. Targets exhibiting comparatively optimistic or pessimistic outlooks on the future were presented as non-depressed, depressed, or neither (control condition) (study 1); non-depressed or depressed (study 2); and non-depressed or in control condition (study 3). Two significant results were obtained: (1) social rejection of comparative pessimism in the social desirability dimension, which can be explained by its depressive feature; and (2) comparative optimism was socially accepted on the social utility dimension, which can be explained by the perception that comparatively optimistic individuals are potential risk-takers.

  11. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  12. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVE STATE ANXIETY AMONG TEAM SPORT AND INDIVIDUAL SPORT ATHLETES IN IRAN

    OpenAIRE

    Soltani Hossein; Hojati Zahra; Reza Attarzadeh Hossini Seyed

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: With respect to the fact that every sport field has its own special nature, the aim of present study was to compare competitive state anxiety among team sport and individual sport athletes in Iran. Material: The statistic sample included 120 male athletes, 60 athletes in individual sports (wrestling, taekwondo and karate) and 60 athletes in team sports (futsal, volleyball and basketball). The research instrument employed was the Persian version of the Competitive State Anxiety Invent...

  13. Income inequality and income mobility in the Scandinavian countries compared to the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Aaberge, Rolf; Björklund, Anders; Jäntti, Markus; Palme, Mårten; Pedersen, Peder J.; Smith, Nina; Wennemo, Tom

    1996-01-01

    This paper compares income inequality and income mobility in the Scandinavian countries and the United States during the 1980's. The results demonstrate that inequality is greater in the United States than in the Scandinavian countries and that the ranking of countries with respect to inequality remains unchanged when the accounting period of income is extended from one to 11 years. The pattern of mobility turns out to be remarkably similar despite major differences in labor market and social...

  14. AN OVERVIEW ON STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS FIELDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela NICHITA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present a history and an evolution of concepts of risk and risk management in economic, respectively financial fields, highlighting the usefulness (or not and complexity of tools for risk assessment developed over time. The main objective of risk management is to reduce costs and increase the value of company and stakeholders gains; also, a coherent risk management strategy may improve entity capital structure which will derive in a healthy financing policy. The risk and risk management field has been developed merely after the second world war and creates the favourable context of a new C position in business chart – Chief Risk Officer. The paper will explore the etymology of term risk correlated with the uncertainty. Research on risk and risk management is not possible without taking into account the derivatives market.

  15. Comparing an Unstructured Risk Stratification to Published Guidelines in Acute Coronary Syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Ann-Jean C C; Hagemeijer, Anouk; Tortolani, Bess; Byrd, Bethany A; Parekh, Amisha; Datillo, Paris; Birkhahn, Robert

    2015-09-01

    Guidelines are designed to encompass the needs of the majority of patients with a particular condition. The American Heart Association (AHA) in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) developed risk stratification guidelines to aid physicians with accurate and efficient diagnosis and management of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). While useful in a primary care setting, in the unique environment of an emergency department (ED), the feasibility of incorporating guidelines into clinical workflow remains in question. We aim to compare emergency physicians' (EP) clinical risk stratification ability to AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines for ACS, and assessed each for accuracy in predicting ACS. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in an urban teaching hospital ED. All patients presenting to the ED with chest pain who were evaluated for ACS had two risk stratification scores assigned: one by the treating physician based on clinical evaluation and the other by the AHA/ACC/ACEP guideline aforementioned. The patient's ACS risk stratification classified by the EP was compared to AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines. Patients were contacted at 30 days following the index ED visit to determine all cause mortality, unscheduled hospital/ED revisits, and objective cardiac testing performed. We enrolled 641 patients presenting for evaluation by 21 different EPs. There was a difference between the physician's clinical assessment used in the ED, and the AHA/ACC/ACEP task force guidelines. EPs were more likely to assess patients as low risk (40%), while AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines were more likely to classify patients as intermediate (45%) or high (45%) risk. Of the 119 (19%) patients deemed high risk by EP evaluation, 38 (32%) were diagnosed with ACS. AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines classified only 57 (9%) patients low risk with 56 (98%) of those patients diagnosed with no ACS. In the ED, physicians are more efficient

  16. Neuroimaging findings in the at-risk mental state: a review of recent literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Stephen J; Reniers, Renate L E P; Heinze, Kareen

    2013-01-01

    The at-risk mental state (ARMS) has been the subject of much interest during the past 15 years. A great deal of effort has been expended to identify neuroimaging markers that can inform our understanding of the risk state and to help predict who will transition to frank psychotic illness. Recently, there has been an explosion of neuroimaging literature from people with an ARMS, which has meant that reviews and meta-analyses lack currency. Here we review papers published in the past 2 years, and contrast their findings with previous reports. While it is clear that people in the ARMS do show brain alterations when compared with healthy control subjects, there is an overall lack of consistency as to which of these alterations predict the development of psychosis. This problem arises because of variations in methodology (in patient recruitment, region of interest, method of analysis, and functional task employed), but there has also been too little effort put into replicating previous research. Nonetheless, there are areas of promise, notably that activation of the stress system and increased striatal dopamine synthesis seem to mark out patients in the ARMS most at risk for later transition. Future studies should focus on these areas, and on network-level analysis, incorporating graph theoretical approaches and intrinsic connectivity networks.

  17. Comparative Risk Predictions of Second Cancers After Carbon-Ion Therapy Versus Proton Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eley, John G., E-mail: jeley@som.umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Friedrich, Thomas [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Homann, Kenneth L.; Howell, Rebecca M. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Scholz, Michael; Durante, Marco [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Newhauser, Wayne D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States); Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Purpose: This work proposes a theoretical framework that enables comparative risk predictions for second cancer incidence after particle beam therapy for different ion species for individual patients, accounting for differences in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for the competing processes of tumor initiation and cell inactivation. Our working hypothesis was that use of carbon-ion therapy instead of proton therapy would show a difference in the predicted risk of second cancer incidence in the breast for a sample of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Methods and Materials: We generated biologic treatment plans and calculated relative predicted risks of second cancer in the breast by using two proposed methods: a full model derived from the linear quadratic model and a simpler linear-no-threshold model. Results: For our reference calculation, we found the predicted risk of breast cancer incidence for carbon-ion plans-to-proton plan ratio, , to be 0.75 ± 0.07 but not significantly smaller than 1 (P=.180). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that second cancer risks are, on average, comparable between proton therapy and carbon-ion therapy.

  18. Risk of Gastrointestinal Bleeding with Rivaroxaban: A Comparative Study with Warfarin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Sherid

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The risk of gastrointestinal (GI bleeding with rivaroxaban has not been studied extensively. The aim of our study was to assess this risk in comparison to warfarin. Methods. We examined the medical records for patients who were started on rivaroxaban or warfarin from April 2011 to April 2013. Results. We identified 300 patients (147 on rivaroxaban versus 153 on warfarin. GI bleeding occurred in 4.8% patients with rivaroxaban when compared to 9.8% patients in warfarin group (p=0.094. GI bleeding occurred in 8% with therapeutic doses of rivaroxaban (>10 mg/d compared to 9.8% with warfarin (p=0.65. Multivariate analysis showed that patients who were on rivaroxaban for ≤40 days had a higher incidence of GI bleeding than those who were on it for >40 days (OR = 2.8, p=0.023. Concomitant use of dual antiplatelet agents was associated with increased risk of GI bleeding in the rivaroxaban group (OR = 7.4, p=0.0378. Prior GI bleeding was also a risk factor for GI bleeding in rivaroxaban group (OR = 15.5. Conclusion. The incidence of GI bleeding was similar between rivaroxaban and warfarin. The risk factors for GI bleeding with rivaroxaban were the first 40 days of taking the drug, concomitant dual antiplatelet agents, and prior GI bleeding.

  19. Increased risk of treatment with antidepressants in stroke compared with other chronic illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Henrik; Harhoff, Mette; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2007-01-01

    The prevalence of depression and anxiety is higher in patients with stroke than in the general population but it is unclear whether patients with stroke are at an increased risk of being treated for depression and anxiety compared with patients with other chronic illness. The objective...... of the present study was to investigate whether the rate of treatment with antidepressants is increased in patients with stroke compared with patients with other chronic illness and compared with the general population. By linkage of nationwide case registers, all patients who received a main diagnosis of stroke...

  20. Comparative study of state-of-the-art myoelectric controllers for multigrasp prosthetic hands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segil, Jacob L; Controzzi, Marco; Weir, Richard F ff; Cipriani, Christian

    2014-01-01

    A myoelectric controller should provide an intuitive and effective human-machine interface that deciphers user intent in real-time and is robust enough to operate in daily life. Many myoelectric control architectures have been developed, including pattern recognition systems, finite state machines, and more recently, postural control schemes. Here, we present a comparative study of two types of finite state machines and a postural control scheme using both virtual and physical assessment procedures with seven nondisabled subjects. The Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure (SHAP) was used in order to compare the effectiveness of the controllers during activities of daily living using a multigrasp artificial hand. Also, a virtual hand posture matching task was used to compare the controllers when reproducing six target postures. The performance when using the postural control scheme was significantly better (p state machines during the physical assessment when comparing within-subject averages using the SHAP percent difference metric. The virtual assessment results described significantly greater completion rates (97% and 99%) for the finite state machines, but the movement time tended to be faster (2.7 s) for the postural control scheme. Our results substantiate that postural control schemes rival other state-of-the-art myoelectric controllers.

  1. A comparative study of the perceptions of nuclear and environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo

    2011-01-01

    With the necessity for new forms of energy production to contain the environmental crisis and the global warming, new technologies have been studied and the nuclear energy has been placed as one of the ways out for clean energy production. The study of the risk is directly related to the study of its perception, that determines the human being's actions, therefore it influences in new technologies applications, since the awareness of something as dangerous is determined by socio-historical factors. The purpose of this study was compare the perceptions of nuclear and environmental risks, considering a group of university students, with the application of research in the period from March 31 to May 31, 2010, containing: images of historical facts to be nominated; structuring of a risk scale for certain activities, and a questionnaire about risks and benefits related to the subject research. The analysis of results evidenced a reduction in the perception of nuclear risk over the perception of environmental risk in this population. (author)

  2. Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Set Defuzzification Methods in the Context of Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy inference systems are widely used in various areas of human activity. Their most widespread use lies in the field of fuzzy control of technical devices of different kind. Another direction of using fuzzy inference systems is modelling and assessment of different kind of risks under insufficient or missing objective initial data. Fuzzy inference is concluded by the procedure of defuzzification of the resulting fuzzy sets. A large number of techniques for implementing the defuzzification procedure are available nowadays. The paper presents a comparative analysis of some widespread methods of fuzzy set defuzzification, and proposes the most appropriate methods in the context of ecological risk assessment.

  3. The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Christopher J L; Atkinson, Charles; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Burstein, Roy; Chou, David; Dellavalle, Robert; Danaei, Goodarz; Ezzati, Majid; Fahimi, A; Flaxman, D; Foreman; Gabriel, Sherine; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lopez; MacIntyre, Michael F; Mokdad, A H; Moran, A; Moran, Andrew E; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Moshen; Pope, C; Roberts, Thomas; Salomon, Joshua; Schwebel, David C; Shahraz, Saeid; Sleet, David A; Murray; Abraham, Jerry; Ali, Mohammed K; Atkinson, Charles; Bartels, David H; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Burstein, Roy; Chen, Honglei; Criqui, Michael H; Dahodwala; Jarlais; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Ebel, Beth E; Ezzati, Majid; Fahami; Flaxman, S; Flaxman, A D; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Grant, Bridget; Hagan, Holly; Hoffman, Howard; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Leasher, Janet L; Lin, John; Lipshultz, Steven E; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mallinger, Leslie; McDermott, Mary M; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mokdad, A A; Mokdad, A H; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Naghavi, Mohsen; Narayan, K M Venkat; Omer, Saad B; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Phillips, David; Ranganathan, Dharani; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Schwebel, David C; Sharaz, Saeid; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, David; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Wilkinson, James D; Zabetian, Azadeh; Murray; Abraham, Jerry; Ali, Mohammad K; Alvardo, Miriam; Atkinson, Charles; Baddour, Larry M; Benjamin, Emelia J; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Bolliger, Ian; Burstein, Roy; Carnahan, Emily; Chou, David; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cooper, Leslie T; Couser, William; Criqui, Michael H; Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C; Dellavalle, Robert P; Jarlais; Dicker, Daniel; Dorsey, E Ray; Duber, Herbert; Ebel, Beth E; Engell, Rebecca E; Ezzati, Majid; Felson, David T; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Flaxman, A D; Fleming, Thomas; Foreman; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gillum, Richard F; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Gosselin, Richard; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hagan, Holly; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hoffman, Howard; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; James, Spencer L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jayarman, Sudha; Johns, Nicole; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lan, Qing; Leasher, Janet L; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lopez; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mallinger, Leslie; Meltzer, Michele; Mensah, George A; Michaud, Catherine; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles; Moffitt, Terrie E; Mokdad, A A; Mokdad, A H; Moran, A; Naghavi, Mohsen; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nelson, Robert G; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Ortblad, Katrina; Ostro, Bart; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Phillips, David; Raju, Murugesan; Razavi, Homie; Ritz, Beate; Roberts, Thomas; Sacco, Ralph L; Salomon, Joshua; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Schwebel, David C; Shahraz, Saeid; Shibuya, Kenji; Silberberg, Donald; Singh, Jasvinder A; Steenland, Kyle; Taylor, Jennifer A; Thurston, George D; Vavilala, Monica S; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Gregory R; Weinstock, Martin A; Weisskopf, Marc G; Wulf, Sarah; Murray

    2013-08-14

    Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased

  4. Migration from Mexico to the United States and subsequent risk for depressive and anxiety disorders: a cross-national study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breslau, Joshua; Borges, Guilherme; Tancredi, Daniel; Saito, Naomi; Kravitz, Richard; Hinton, Ladson; Vega, William; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio

    2011-04-01

    Migration is suspected to increase risk for depressive and anxiety disorders. To test the hypothesized increase in risk for depressive and anxiety disorders after arrival in the United States among Mexican migrants. We combined data from surveys conducted separately in Mexico and the United States that used the same diagnostic interview. Discrete time survival models were specified to estimate the relative odds of first onset of depressive disorders (major depressive episode and dysthymia) and anxiety disorders (generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, panic disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder) among migrants after their arrival in the United States compared with nonmigrant Mexicans who have a migrant in their immediate family. Population surveys in the United States and Mexico. Two thousand five hundred nineteen nonmigrant family members of migrants in Mexico and 554 Mexican migrants in the United States. First onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder. After arrival in the United States, migrants had a significantly higher risk for first onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder than did nonmigrant family members of migrants in Mexico (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.94). Associations between migration and disorder varied across birth cohorts. Elevated risk among migrants relative to nonmigrants was restricted to the 2 younger cohorts (those aged 18-25 or 26-35 years at interview). In the most recent birth cohort, the association between migration and first onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder was particularly strong (odds ratio, 3.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-5.53). This is, to our knowledge, the first study to compare risk for first onset of psychiatric disorder between representative samples of migrants in the United States and nonmigrants in Mexico. The findings are consistent with the hypothesized adverse effect of migration from Mexico to the United States on the mental health of migrants, but only among

  5. AN OVERVIEW ON STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS FIELDS

    OpenAIRE

    Mirela NICHITA

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a history and an evolution of concepts of risk and risk management in economic, respectively financial fields, highlighting the usefulness (or not) and complexity of tools for risk assessment developed over time. The main objective of risk management is to reduce costs and increase the value of company and stakeholders gains; also, a coherent risk management strategy may improve entity capital structure which will derive in a healthy financing policy. T...

  6. A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Three Risk Tolerance Measures: Turkey and the United States Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Ruiz-Manjivar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An individual’s attitude toward financial risk tolerance (FRT is an important preference that influences financial decision-making under uncertainty. FRT involves inter-temporal resource allocation. Accurate and reliable measures of FRT are essential for professionals advising consumers as well as researchers who are trying to predict, and understand consumer behavior. This study explores cross-cultural risk tolerance by comparing random samples from Turkey, and the United States. Similar and distinctive attitudes and patterns regarding FRT are identified. Three subjective measures of FRT are employed in this study: Grable and Lytton (1999, Hanna, Gutter and Fan’s (2001 improved version of Barsky, Juster, Kimball and Shapiro (1997, and the Survey of Consumer Finance’s item on risk tolerance. Data was collected via an online survey that used the above-mentioned FRT measures. There were two versions: the original American English version, and a culturally translated Turkish version. To explore the correlation of FRT among measures, we use bivariate analysis by individually employing Pearson Chi-square test of independence, and cross tabulations analysis to each sample. In addition, by pooling both samples, we conduct cumulative logistic regression. We delineate FRT differences and consistencies between countries across subjective financial risk tolerance measures.

  7. State-Dependent Risk Preferences in Evolutionary Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Patrick; Nau, Dana

    There is much empirical evidence that human decision-making under risk does not correspond the decision-theoretic notion of "rational" decision making, namely to make choices that maximize the expected value. An open question is how such behavior could have arisen evolutionarily. We believe that the answer to this question lies, at least in part, in the interplay between risk-taking and sequentiality of choice in evolutionary environments.

  8. Comparative empirical analysis of temporal relationships between construction investment and economic growth in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navid Ahmadi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The majority of policymakers believe that investments in construction infrastructure would boost the economy of the United States (U.S.. They also assume that construction investment in infrastructure has similar impact on the economies of different U.S. states. In contrast, there have been studies showing the negative impact of construction activities on the economy. However, there has not been any research attempt to empirically test the temporal relationships between construction investment and economic growth in the U.S. states, to determine the longitudinal impact of construction investment on the economy of each state. The objective of this study is to investigate whether Construction Value Added (CVA is the leading (or lagging indicator of real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP for every individual state of the U.S. using empirical time series tests. The results of Granger causality tests showed that CVA is a leading indicator of state real GDP in 18 states and the District of Columbia; real GDP is a leading indicator of CVA in 10 states and the District of Columbia. There is a bidirectional relationship between CVA and real GDP in 5 states and the District of Columbia. In 8 states and the District of Columbia, not only do CVA and real GDP have leading/lagging relationships, but they are also cointegrated. These results highlight the important role of the construction industry in these states. The results also show that leading (or lagging lengths vary for different states. The results of the comparative empirical analysis reject the hypothesis that CVA is a leading indicator of real GDP in the states with the highest shares of construction in the real GDP. The findings of this research contribute to the state of knowledge by quantifying the temporal relationships between construction investment and economic growth in the U.S. states. It is expected that the results help policymakers better understand the impact of construction investment

  9. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.D. Magarey; D.M. Borchert; J.S. Engle; M Garcia-Colunga; Frank H. Koch; et al

    2011-01-01

    In the United States, pest risk maps are used by the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey for spatial and temporal targeting of exotic plant pest detection programs. Methods are described to create standardized host distribution, climate and pathway risk maps for the top nationally ranked exotic pest targets. Two examples are provided to illustrate the risk mapping...

  10. National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzadfar Farshad

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, total cholesterol (TC, and high body mass index (BMI on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000 deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000 deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9 and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9 in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran

  11. COMPARATIVE EVALUTION OF CEPHALOSPORIN-C PRODUCTION IN SOLID STATE FERMENTATION AND SUBMERGED LIQUID CULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Rezazarandi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The advantages of solid state fermentation (SSF utilization in producing enzymes & secondary metabolites have been shown, whereas, submerged liquid fermentation (SLF condition has the major usage in industrial production of antibiotics. As an antibiotic of B-lactams group, cephalosporin-C (CPC is indicated due to its wide effect and broad convention in treatment of infectious diseases. Regarding industrial production of CPC regularly done in SLF condition, we compared CPC production sum in SLF and SSF conditions. In this analysis, A. chrysogenum was employed, which was inoculated to SLF and SSF, while internal fermenter conditions were totally under control. After extraction of CPC, productions in two states of SLF and SSF were compared using the cylinder plate method. According to Antibiotic assay and production amount comparison, results expressed a ratio of development of production in SSF conditions to SLF conditions. Regarding previous studies on a solid state fermenter and its advantages, in this study, convenience of SSF conditions compared to SLF conditions was experimented. Also mentioning that maintaining the condition of solid state fermenter is more comfortable and practical than liquid state fermenter, using a solid based fermenter to produce antibiotics, especially CPC, can be appropriate. Considering appropriate control conditions of SSF to produce secondary metabolites, decrease in expenses, and increase of production, taking advantage of it in order to increase production parallel to modern methods, such as genetically manipulating CPC producing microorganisms are recommended to pharmacological industries. Also, to make this method applicable, further studies in industrial criterion seem necessary.

  12. Value-at-Risk Analysis for the Tunisian Currency Market: A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aymen Ben Rejeb

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to compare empirically four Value-at-Risk simulation methods, namely, the Variance-Covariance, the Historical Simulation, the Bootstrapping and the Monte Carlo. We tried to estimate the VaR associated to three currencies and four currency portfolios in the Tunisian exchange market. Data covers the period between 01-01-1999 and 31-12-2007. Independently of the used technique, the Japanese Yen seems to be the most risky currency. Moreover, the portfolio diversification reduces the exchange rate risk. Lastly, the number of violations, when they exist, does not generally differ between the simulation methods. Recent evaluation tests were applied to select the most appropriate technique predicting precisely the exchange rate risk. Results based on these tests suggest that the traditional Variance-Covariance is the most appropriate method.

  13. Hemorrhagic and Ischemic Strokes Compared Stroke Severity, Mortality, and Risk Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, T. S.; Dehlendorff, Christian

    2009-01-01

    were diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and intermittent arterial claudication. Smoking and alcohol consumption favored HS, whereas age, sex, and hypertension did not herald stroke type. Compared with ischemic strokes, HS was associated with an overall...... higher mortality risk (HR, 1.564; 95% CI, 1.441-1.696). The increased risk was, however, time-dependent; initially, risk was 4-fold, after 1 week it was 2.5-fold, and after 3 weeks it was 1.5-fold. After 3 months stroke type did not correlate to mortality. Conclusion-Strokes are generally more severe...... based on 25 123 individuals with a complete data set. Results-Of the patients 3993 (10.1%) had HS. Stroke severity was almost linearly related to the probability of having HS (2% in patients with the mildest stroke and 30% in those with the most severe strokes). Factors favoring ischemic strokes vs HS...

  14. Qualitative Assessment for Toxoplasma gondii Exposure Risk Associated with Meat Products in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Miao; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Ying, Yuqing; Gamble, H Ray; Jones, Jeffrey L; Pradhan, Abani K

    2015-12-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is a global protozoan parasite capable of infecting most warm-blooded animals. Although healthy adult humans generally have no symptoms, severe illness does occur in certain groups, including congenitally infected fetuses and newborns, immunocompromised individuals including transplant patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that consumption of raw or undercooked meat products is one of the major sources of infection with T. gondii. The goal of this study was to develop a framework to qualitatively estimate the exposure risk to T. gondii from various meat products consumed in the United States. Risk estimates of various meats were analyzed by a farm-to-retail qualitative assessment that included evaluation of farm, abattoir, storage and transportation, meat processing, packaging, and retail modules. It was found that exposure risks associated with meats from free-range chickens, nonconfinement-raised pigs, goats, and lamb are higher than those from confinement-raised pigs, cattle, and caged chickens. For fresh meat products, risk at the retail level was similar to that at the farm level unless meats had been frozen or moisture enhanced. Our results showed that meat processing, such as salting, freezing, commercial hot air drying, long fermentation times, hot smoking, and cooking, are able to reduce T. gondii levels in meat products. whereas nitrite and/or nitrate, spice, low pH, and cold storage have no effect on the viability of T. gondii tissue cysts. Raw-fermented sausage, cured raw meat, meat that is not hot-air dried, and fresh processed meat were associated with higher exposure risks compared with cooked meat and frozen meat. This study provides a reference for meat management control programs to determine critical control points and serves as the foundation for future quantitative risk assessments.

  15. Retinopathy of prematurity: Revisiting incidence and risk factors from Oman compared to other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, Zenaida Soriano; Al-Mulaabed, Sharef Waadallah; Bataclan, Flordeliz; Montemayor, Cheryl; Ganesh, Anuradha; Al-Zuhaibi, Sanaa; Al-Waili, Huda; Al-Wahibi, Fatma

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the incidence of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) and the maternal/neonatal risk factors at a tertiary care hospital in Oman, compared to other countries. A retrospective analysis of premature neonates born with gestational age (GA) 24-32 weeks at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Oman, from January 2007 to December 2010. Maternal and neonatal in-hospital course was retrieved. The incidence of ROP was reported. Risk factors analyses were performed using univariate and multivariate statistics. A total of 171 neonates (57% males, 43% females) were included for analysis. The incidence of ROP (any stage) was 69/171 (40.4%). Infants with ROP had significantly lower GA (27.7±2 weeks) compared to non-ROP group (30.2±1.7 weeks), P < 0.001),P < 0.001) and significantly lower birth weight (BW) (948 ± 242 g in ROP group vs. 1348 ± 283 g in non-ROP group;P < 0.001). Other significant risk factors associated with ROP were: small for GA, respiratory distress syndrome, requirement for ventilation, duration of ventilation or oxygen therapy, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, hyperglycemia, late onset sepsis (clinical or proven), necrotizing enterocolitis, patent ductus arteriosus, seizures, and number of blood transfusions. There was no significant difference in maternal characteristics between the ROP and non-ROP groups except that mothers of infants with ROP were found to be significantly younger. Logistic regression analysis revealed early GA, low BW, duration of Oxygen therapy, and late-onset clinical or proven sepsis as independent risk factors. ROP is still commonly encountered in neonatal practice in Oman and other countries. Early GA, low BW, and prolonged oxygen therapy continue to be the main risk factors associated with the occurrence of ROP in our setting. In addition, an important preventable risk factor identified in our cohort includes clinical or proven late-onset sepsis.

  16. Bilingual Preschool Education in the United States and Panama: A Comparative Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Rebeca

    This paper compares bilingual education policy and practice in Panama and the United States. Particular issues studied include the following: the social context of bilingual education in the two countries; programming and policy differences; teacher qualifications; availability of age-appropriate materials; and administrative support, level of…

  17. The Need for Comparative Education Research to Concentrate on the Cultural Revolution within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, M. Loretta

    Comparative education research and courses are needed to identify real revolutionary movements in the current cultural revolution in the United States. The presence of cultural revolution is indicated by, among other things, the development of microcultures. Intranational instead of cross-national studies are of importance in the next few years to…

  18. Small Business Contracting in the United States and Europe: A Comparative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    unlimited. Prepared for: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943 SMALL BUSINESS CONTRACTING IN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE: A...COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT by Max Kidalov, Assistant Professor Procurement Law & Policy March 2010 Graduate School of Business & Public Policy...Daniel T. Oliver Leonard A. Ferrari President Executive Vice President and Provost The report entitled “Small Business Contracting in

  19. Sea state estimation from an advancing ship – A comparative study using sea trial data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Stredulinsky, David C.

    2012-01-01

    of a traditional wave rider buoy. The paper studies the ‘wave buoy analogy’, and a large set of full-scale motion measurements is considered. It is shown that the wave buoy analogy gives fairly accurate estimates of integrated sea state parameters when compared to corresponding estimates from real wave rider buoys...

  20. A Review and Comparative Analysis of Security Risks and Safety Measures of Mobile Health Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Scott

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In line with a patient-centred model of healthcare, Mobile Health applications (mhealth apps provide convenient and equitable access to health and well-being resources and programs that can enable consumers to monitor their health related problems, understand specific medical conditions and attain personal fitness goals. This increase in access and control comes with an increase in risk and responsibility to identify and manage the associated risks, such as the privacy and security of consumers’ personal and health information. Based on a review of the literature, this paper identifies a set of risk and safety features for evaluating mHealth apps and uses those features to conduct a comparative analysis of the 20 most popular mHealth apps. The comparative analysis reveals that current mHealth apps do pose a risk to consumers. To address the safety and privacy concerns, recommendations to consumers and app developers are offered together with consideration of mHealth app future trends.

  1. MetaCompare: A computational pipeline for prioritizing environmental resistome risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Min; Pruden, Amy; Chen, Chaoqi; Heath, Lenwood S; Xia, Kang; Zhang, Liqing

    2018-04-26

    The spread of antibiotic resistance is a growing public health concern. While numerous studies have highlighted the importance of environmental sources and pathways of the spread of antibiotic resistance, a systematic means of comparing and prioritizing risks represented by various environmental compartments is lacking. Here we introduce MetaCompare, a publicly-available tool for ranking 'resistome risk,' which we define as the potential for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) to be associated with mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and mobilize to pathogens based on metagenomic data. A computational pipeline was developed in which each ARG is evaluated based on relative abundance, mobility, and presence within a pathogen. This is determined through assembly of shotgun sequencing data and analysis of contigs containing ARGs to determine if they contain sequence similarity to MGEs or human pathogens. Based on the assembled metagenomes, samples are projected into a 3-D hazard space and assigned resistome risk scores. To validate, we tested previously published metagenomic data derived from distinct aquatic environments. Based on unsupervised machine learning, the test samples clustered in the hazard space in a manner consistent with their origin. The derived scores produced a well-resolved ascending resistome risk ranking of: wastewater treatment plant effluent, dairy lagoon, hospital sewage.

  2. Comparative analysis of government debt in the European Union's member states, 2000-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talpoş Ioan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a detailed comparative analysis of the evolution of government debt stocks in the E.U. Member States at the end of the period 31.12.2000-31.12.2013 from the point of view of the share of these debts in the GDP, with a focus on six groups of the E.U. Member States (E.U.-28 countries, E.U.-27 countries, Euro area-18 countries, Euro area-17 countries, Non Euro area-10 countries, Non Euro area-11 countries, on the E.U. Member States with a government debt stock share above or below 60% of the GDP at 31.12.2013, on the Member States which recorded very large deviations of the government debt stocks and of those stocks' shares in PIB in the analyzed period or which recorded a decrease in government debt stock shares in PIB - and, separately, on Romania as well.

  3. "Unnatural Fornication" Cases Under State-Socialism: A Hungarian-Slovenian Comparative Social-Historical Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takács, Judit; Kuhar, Roman; Tóth, Tamás P

    2017-01-01

    This comparative social-historical study examines different versions of state-socialist body politics manifested in Hungary and Slovenia mainly during the 1950s by using archive material of "unnatural fornication" court cases. By analyzing the available Hungarian "természet elleni fajtalanság" and Slovenian "nenaravno občevanje" court cases, we can shed light on how the defendants were treated by the police and the judiciary. On the basis of these archive data that have never been examined before from these angles, we can construct an at least partial picture of the practices and consequences of state surveillance of same-sex-attracted men during state-socialism. The article explores the functioning of state-socialist social control mechanisms directed at nonnormative sexualities that had long-lasting consequences on the social representation of homosexuality in both countries.

  4. Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS...... of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared......: In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count. RESULTS: We included 3503 HIV patients...

  5. A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

    2009-11-01

    A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

  6. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  7. Addressing Child Poverty: How Does the United States Compare With Other Nations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeeding, Timothy; Thévenot, Céline

    2016-04-01

    Poverty during childhood raises a number of policy challenges. The earliest years are critical in terms of future cognitive and emotional development and early health outcomes, and have long-lasting consequences on future health. In this article child poverty in the United States is compared with a set of other developed countries. To the surprise of few, results show that child poverty is high in the United States. But why is poverty so much higher in the United States than in other rich nations? Among child poverty drivers, household composition and parent's labor market participation matter a great deal. But these are not insurmountable problems. Many of these disadvantages can be overcome by appropriate public policies. For example, single mothers have a very high probability of poverty in the United States, but this is not the case in other countries where the provision of work support increases mothers' labor earnings and together with strong public cash support effectively reduces child poverty. In this article we focus on the role and design of public expenditure to understand the functioning of the different national systems and highlight ways for improvements to reduce child poverty in the United States. We compare relative child poverty in the United States with poverty in a set of selected countries. The takeaway is that the United States underinvests in its children and their families and in so doing this leads to high child poverty and poor health and educational outcomes. If a nation like the United States wants to decrease poverty and improve health and life chances for poor children, it must support parental employment and incomes, and invest in children's futures as do other similar nations with less child poverty. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Nonlinear Uncertainty Propagation of Satellite State Error for Tracking and Conjunction Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-18

    AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2017-0177 TR-2017-0177 NONLINEAR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION OF SATELLITE STATE ERROR FOR TRACKING AND CONJUNCTION RISK...Uncertainty Propagation of Satellite State Error for Tracking and Conjunction Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9453-16-1-0084 5b. GRANT NUMBER...prediction and satellite conjunction analysis. Statistical approach utilizes novel methods to build better uncertainty state characterization in the context

  9. Understanding Suicide Across the Lifespan: A United States Perspective of Suicide Risk Factors, Assessment & Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Ian H; Thrower, Natasha; Noroian, Paul; Saleh, Fabian M

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a troubling, preventable phenomenon. Prior to attempts, individuals often seek help, prompting practitioners to perform risk assessments that ideally use evidence-based risk management strategies. A literature review was performed using Harvard Countway Library of Medicine, Google Scholar, PubMed. Key words used were "Forensic Science," "Suicide Risk Management," "Pediatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Adult Suicide Risk Factors," "Geriatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Suicide Risk Assessment." Parameters limited articles to studies/reviews completed in the past twenty years in the United States. Results indicated predictors of suicide in juveniles were insomnia, burdensomeness, and recent conflicts with family or a romantic partner. Adults had greater risk if male, substance abusing, with marital/job loss. Elderly individuals with multiple medical comorbidities, hopelessness, and isolation were at higher risk. Everyone evaluated should be screened for access to firearms. Management of suicide risk involves providing the least restrictive form of treatment which maintains an individual's safety. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Design of risk communication strategies based on risk perception among farmers exposed to pesticides in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, Frederico; Rodrigues, Karla Meneses; da Silva Peixoto Belo, Mariana Soares; Moreira, Josino Costa; Claudio, Luz

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to assess pesticide exposure risk perception among farmers from three rural areas of Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 66 adults and participatory workshops with 27 teenagers and analyzed through content analysis techniques. Systematized results were discussed at local meetings, and two risk communication initiatives were devised. Study results demonstrated the use of defensive strategies by men and a diminished risk perception among women. Teenagers relied on parents to develop their own work practices. These findings supported the importance of cultural and social determinants of farmers' understandings of risk and of the relevance of different pesticide exposure pathways. Risk perceptions and work practices are strongly influenced by local cultural patterns and, therefore, must be taken into account when developing effective intervention strategies, including risk communication initiatives. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

  12. Risk factors, pre-presentation management and clinical state of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-08-23

    Aug 23, 2017 ... based on provision of clean water sources, basic hygiene. CC –BY ... clinical state at presentation, management, and outcome were documented. Data was entered ... WHBPF = Washes hands before preparing food. WHBF =.

  13. Gestational age specific neonatal survival in the State of Qatar (2003-2008) - a comparative study with international benchmarks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Sajjad; Salameh, Khalil; Al-Rifai, Hilal; Masoud, Ahmed; Lutfi, Samawal; Salama, Husam; Abdoh, Ghassan; Omar, Fahmi; Bener, Abdulbari

    2011-09-01

    To analyze and compare the current gestational age specific neonatal survival rates between Qatar and international benchmarks. An analytical comparative study. Women's Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar, from 2003-2008. Six year's (2003-2008) gestational age specific neonatal mortality data was stratified for each completed week of gestation at birth from 24 weeks till term. The data from World Health Statistics by WHO (2010), Vermont Oxford Network (VON, 2007) and National Statistics United Kingdom (2006) were used as international benchmarks for comparative analysis. A total of 82,002 babies were born during the study period. Qatar's neonatal mortality rate (NMR) dropped from 6/1000 in 2003 to 4.3/1000 in 2008 (p Qatar were comparable with international benchmarks. The survival of Qatar (p=0.01 and p 32 weeks babies was better in UK (p=0.01) as compared to Qatar. The relative risk (RR) of death decreased with increasing gestational age (p Qatar. The current total and gestational age specific neonatal survival rates in the State of Qatar are comparable with international benchmarks. In Qatar, persistently high rates of low birth weight and lethal chromosomal and congenital anomalies significantly contribute towards neonatal mortality.

  14. Adolescents at risk of psychosis: a comparison of the "At risk mental state" and Multiple Complex Developmental Disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sprong, M.

    2008-01-01

    Comparing vulnerability markers for psychosis in different high-risk populations will ultimately lead to more insight into the causes of the syndrome and a more accurate identification of at-risk individuals. This dissertation concentrated on the comparison of two groups of adolescents that are at

  15. Analyzing State Security Risks in South China Sea Conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Дмитрий Владимирович Пивоваров

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the regional security issues in South East Asia. The author analyses the international relations that go closely to the foreign policy and foreign policy strategy problems. The author proposes risk analysis as a new and promising method in political science to generate foreign policy plans and analyze international conflicts and problems.

  16. Comparing pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies in Croatia to the European Union Member States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogler, Sabine; Habl, Claudia; Bogut, Martina; Vončina, Luka

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform a comparative analysis of the pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement systems in Croatia and the 27 European Union (EU) Member States. Methods Knowledge about the pharmaceutical systems in Croatia and the 27 EU Member States was acquired by literature review and primary research with stakeholders. Results Pharmaceutical prices are controlled at all levels in Croatia, which is also the case in 21 EU Member States. Like many EU countries, Croatia also applies external price referencing, ie, compares prices with other countries. While the wholesale remuneration by a statutorily regulated linear mark-up is applied in Croatia and in several EU countries, the pharmacy compensation for dispensing reimbursable medicines in the form of a flat rate service fee in Croatia is rare among EU countries, which usually apply a linear or regressive pharmacy mark-up scheme. Like in most EU countries, the Croatian Social Insurance reimburses specific medicines at 100%, whereas patients are charged co-payments for other reimbursable medicines. Criteria for reimbursement include the medicine’s importance from the public health perspective, its therapeutic value, and relative effectiveness. In Croatia and in many EU Member States, reimbursement is based on a reference price system. Conclusion The Croatian pharmaceutical system is similar to those in the EU Member States. Key policies, like external price referencing and reference price systems, which have increasingly been introduced in EU countries are also applied in Croatia and serve the same purpose: to ensure access to medicines while containing public pharmaceutical expenditure. PMID:21495202

  17. Comparing pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies in Croatia to the European Union Member States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogler, Sabine; Habl, Claudia; Bogut, Martina; Voncina, Luka

    2011-04-15

    To perform a comparative analysis of the pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement systems in Croatia and the 27 European Union (EU) Member States. Knowledge about the pharmaceutical systems in Croatia and the 27 EU Member States was acquired by literature review and primary research with stakeholders. Pharmaceutical prices are controlled at all levels in Croatia, which is also the case in 21 EU Member States. Like many EU countries, Croatia also applies external price referencing, i.e., compares prices with other countries. While the wholesale remuneration by a statutorily regulated linear mark-up is applied in Croatia and in several EU countries, the pharmacy compensation for dispensing reimbursable medicines in the form of a flat rate service fee in Croatia is rare among EU countries, which usually apply a linear or regressive pharmacy mark-up scheme. Like in most EU countries, the Croatian Social Insurance reimburses specific medicines at 100%, whereas patients are charged co-payments for other reimbursable medicines. Criteria for reimbursement include the medicine's importance from the public health perspective, its therapeutic value, and relative effectiveness. In Croatia and in many EU Member States, reimbursement is based on a reference price system. The Croatian pharmaceutical system is similar to those in the EU Member States. Key policies, like external price referencing and reference price systems, which have increasingly been introduced in EU countries are also applied in Croatia and serve the same purpose: to ensure access to medicines while containing public pharmaceutical expenditure.

  18. Towards a Comparative Index of Seaport Climate-Risk: Development of Indicators from Open Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, R. D.; Becker, A.

    2016-02-01

    Seaports represent an example of coastal infrastructure that is at once critical to global trade, constrained to the land-sea interface, and exposed to weather and climate hazards. Seaports face impacts associated with projected changes in sea level, sedimentation, ocean chemistry, wave dynamics, temperature, precipitation, and storm frequency and intensity. Port decision-makers have the responsibility to enhance resilience against these impacts. At the multi-port (regional or national) scale, policy-makers must prioritize adaptation efforts to maximize the efficiency of limited physical and financial resources. Prioritization requires comparing across seaports, and comparison requires a standardized assessment method, but efforts to date have either been limited in scope to exposure-only assessments or limited in scale to evaluate one port in isolation from a system of ports. In order to better understand the distribution of risk across ports and to inform transportation resilience policy, we are developing a comparative assessment method to measure the relative climate-risk faced by a sample of ports. Our mixed-methods approach combines a quantitative, data-driven, indicator-based assessment with qualitative data collected via expert-elicitation. In this presentation, we identify and synthesize over 120 potential risk indicators from open data sources. Indicators represent exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity for a pilot sample of 20 ports. Our exploratory data analysis, including Principal Component Analysis, uncovered sources of variance between individual ports and between indicators. Next steps include convening an expert panel representing the perspectives of multiple transportation system agencies to find consensus on a suite of robust indicators and metrics for maritime freight node climate risk assessment. The index will be refined based on expert feedback, the sample size expanded, and additional indicators sought from closed data sources

  19. Models for comparing lung-cancer risks in radon- and plutonium-exposed experimental animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.; Cross, F.T.; Sanders, C.L.; Dagle, G.E.

    1990-10-01

    Epidemiologic studies of radon-exposed underground miners have provided the primary basis for estimating human lung-cancer risks resulting from radon exposure. These studies are sometimes used to estimate lung-cancer risks resulting from exposure to other alpha- emitters as well. The latter use, often referred to as the dosimetric approach, is based on the assumption that a specified dose to the lung produces the same lung-tumor risk regardless of the substance producing the dose. At Pacific Northwest Laboratory, experiments have been conducted in which laboratory rodents have been given inhalation exposures to radon and to plutonium ( 239 PuO 2 ). These experiments offer a unique opportunity to compare risks, and thus to investigate the validity of the dosimetric approach. This comparison is made most effectively by modeling the age-specific risk as a function of dose in a way that is comparable to analyses of human data. Such modeling requires assumptions about whether tumors are the cause of death or whether they are found incidental to death from other causes. Results based on the assumption that tumors are fatal indicate that the radon and plutonium dose-response curves differ, with a linear function providing a good description of the radon data, and a pure quadratic function providing a good description of the plutonium data. However, results based on the assumption that tumors are incidental to death indicate that the dose-response curves for the two exposures are very similar, and thus support the dosimetric approach. 14 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs

  20. Comparative Study of Barotrauma Risk during Fish Passage through Kaplan Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richmond, Marshall C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Romero-Gomez, Pedro [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Serkowski, John A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Rakowski, Cynthia L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Hydrology Group; Graf, Michael J. [Voith Hydro, York, PA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Rapid pressure changes in hydroelectric turbine flows can cause barotrauma that can be hazardous to the passage of fish, in particular migratory juvenile salmonids. Although numerous laboratory tests have evaluated the effect of rapid decompression in fish species of relevance, numerical modeling studies offer the advantage of predicting, for new turbine designs, the potential risks of mortality and injury from rapid pressure change during turbine passage. However, rapid pressure change is only one of several hydraulic risks encountered by fish during turbine passage in addition to blade strike, shear, and turbulence. To better understand the role of rapid pressure changes, the present work focuses on the application of a computational fluid dynamics based method for evaluating the risk of pressure-related mortality to fish passing through an early 1960s era original hydroelectric Kaplan turbine at Wanapum Dam (Columbia River, Washington), and a modern advanced Kaplan turbine installed in 2005. The results show that the modeling approach acceptably reproduced the nadir pressure distributions compared to field data previously collected at the site using an autonomous sensor. Our findings show that the new advanced-design unit performs better, in terms of reduced barotrauma risk to fish from exposure to low pressures, than the original turbine unit. The outcomes allow for comparative analyses of turbine designs and operations prior to installation, an advantage that can potentially be integrated in the process of designing new turbine units to achieve superior environmental performance. Overall, the results show that modern turbine designs can achieve the multiple objectives of increasing power generation, lowering cavitation potential, and reducing barotrauma risks to passing fish.

  1. Hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes compared: stroke severity, mortality, and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Kammersgaard, Lars Peter

    2009-06-01

    Stroke patients with hemorrhagic (HS) and ischemic strokes were compared with regard to stroke severity, mortality, and cardiovascular risk factors. A registry started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, now holds information for 39,484 patients. The patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity (Scandinavian Stroke Scale), CT, and cardiovascular risk factors. They were followed-up from admission until death or censoring in 2007. Independent predictors of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 25,123 individuals with a complete data set. Of the patients 3993 (10.1%) had HS. Stroke severity was almost linearly related to the probability of having HS (2% in patients with the mildest stroke and 30% in those with the most severe strokes). Factors favoring ischemic strokes vs HS were diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and intermittent arterial claudication. Smoking and alcohol consumption favored HS, whereas age, sex, and hypertension did not herald stroke type. Compared with ischemic strokes, HS was associated with an overall higher mortality risk (HR, 1.564; 95% CI, 1.441-1.696). The increased risk was, however, time-dependent; initially, risk was 4-fold, after 1 week it was 2.5-fold, and after 3 weeks it was 1.5-fold. After 3 months stroke type did not correlate to mortality. Strokes are generally more severe in patients with HS. Within the first 3 months after stroke, HS is associated with a considerable increase of mortality, which is specifically associated with the hemorrhagic nature of the lesion.

  2. COMPAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuefner, K.

    1976-01-01

    COMPAR works on FORTRAN arrays with four indices: A = A(i,j,k,l) where, for each fixed k 0 ,l 0 , only the 'plane' [A(i,j,k 0 ,l 0 ), i = 1, isub(max), j = 1, jsub(max)] is held in fast memory. Given two arrays A, B of this type COMPAR has the capability to 1) re-norm A and B ind different ways; 2) calculate the deviations epsilon defined as epsilon(i,j,k,l): =[A(i,j,k,l) - B(i,j,k,l)] / GEW(i,j,k,l) where GEW (i,j,k,l) may be chosen in three different ways; 3) calculate mean, standard deviation and maximum in the array epsilon (by several intermediate stages); 4) determine traverses in the array epsilon; 5) plot these traverses by a printer; 6) simplify plots of these traverses by the PLOTEASY-system by creating input data blocks for this system. The main application of COMPAR is given (so far) by the comparison of two- and three-dimensional multigroup neutron flux-fields. (orig.) [de

  3. The Dark Side of the Economy: A Comparative Analysis of the Islamic State's Revenue Streams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wes H Cooper

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Islamic State’s ambitious goals have led to the organization obtaining a large amount of costs. However, the Islamic State does not have adequate revenue streams to maintain these expenditures. This paper compares the Islamic State’s costs and revenue streams with two similar organizations, Hizballah and Al Qaeda. The comparison will explain that the Islamic State’s revenue streams are not as efficient and diversified as Hizballah and Al Qaeda’s revenue streams have historically been. As a result of inefficient and unvaried revenue streams, the Islamic State will be forced to structurally change.

  4. This is my neighborhood: comparing United States and Australian Oxford House Neighborhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Joseph R; Jason, Leonard A; Blake, Ron; Davis, Margaret I; Olson, Bradley D

    2006-01-01

    The number of Oxford Houses, communal-living, mutual help settings for persons in recovery of alcohol and substance abuse, has spread across the United States and recently in and around Melbourne, Australia. In this study 55 US and 6 AU Houses were compared descriptively for their neighborhood characteristics. Across settings, there were greater similarities than significant differences in the locations. Results imply that Australian Oxford Houses are "safe and sober" settings for persons in recovery consistent with the original United States model in physical dwelling settings.

  5. Non-performing loans and systemic risk: comparative analysis of Serbia and countries in transition CESEE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlastimir Vukovic

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of the research on the impact of non-performing loans to the systemic risk in the domestic banking system and a comparison with other countries in transition, as well as on certain EU countries. It is important to metion that the extreme bank-centricity caused the extension of the analysis to the entire financial sector of Serbia. Therefore, macroeconomic and macro-financial component of systemic risk were separated. In order to more precisely determine the main effects of non-performing loans in the propagation of systemic risk, the authors have created and used two new synthetic indicators in the research. The first is the macroeconomic contagion with non-performing loans (problematic loans expressed as a percentage of GDP, and the second is the infection of financial sector with non-performing loans (the proportional share of these loans in the assets of the financial sector. Analysis of the period just before and during the current financial crisis and the recession (2007-2012 showed that the NPLs (non-performing loans are the main generator of systemic risk in the financial and real sectors of Serbia. In addition, the survey results show that the applied synthetic indicators measure total system risk and its basic components more accurately then the analytical, which have only been in use until now. Comparative analysis showed similar results, not only in the countries in transition, but also in developed ones. The results of this study provide guidance and represent an important input for economic policymakers, because the systemic risk is the greatest immediate threat to economic prosperity and financial stability of each country

  6. Comparing the prevalence and the risk profile for antenatal depressive symptoms across cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbani, Irene E; Rucci, Paola; Iapichino, Elena; Quartieri Bollani, Marta; Cauli, Gilla; Ceruti, Mara R; Gala, Costanzo; Bassi, Mariano

    2017-11-01

    Although several studies have analyzed the risk factors of antenatal and post-partum depression, evidence on the prevalence and the risk profile for antenatal depressive symptoms (ADS) between native-born and different groups of non-native born women living in the same country is scant. The aim of this article is to compare the prevalence and the risk profile for ADS across geographical areas in women recruited from two large hospitals of North-western Italy. The presence of ADS was defined as an Edinburgh Post-natal Depression Scale (EPDS) score ≥12 or a Beck Depression Inventory, Short Form (BDI-SF) score ≥9 or the presence of suicidal ideation/behavior. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of ADS were calculated using logistic regression models. The prevalence of ADS was 12.4% among Italian women and ranged from 11.4% in other European to 44.7% in North-African women. Crude ORs of ADS were OR = 3.3 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-8.8) for Asian, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.9-5.6) for South-American and 5.7 (95% CI, 3.4-9.6) for North-African women. Marital problems, at-risk pregnancy, past psychiatric history, pharmacological treatment, psychological treatment, financial problems, change in residence and number of children were significantly associated with ADS in multivariate analyses, regardless of women's origin. After adjusting for these variables, the OR of ADS remained significant for South-American and North-African women. Our results demonstrate that the risk of ADS varies across geographical areas of origin and is highest among North-African women. The risk factors identified should be assessed in routine obstetric care to inform decisions about interventions to prevent post-partum depression and its consequences on the mothers and the newborns.

  7. Dietary risk factors for colon and rectal cancers: a comparative case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakai, Kenji; Hirose, Kaoru; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Kuriki, Kiyonori; Suzuki, Takeshi; Kato, Tomoyuki; Hirai, Takashi; Kanemitsu, Yukihide; Tajima, Kazuo

    2006-05-01

    In Japan, the incidence rate of colon cancer has more rapidly increased than that of rectal cancer. The differential secular trends may be due to different dietary factors in the development of colon and rectal cancers. To compare dietary risk factors between colon and rectal cancers, we undertook a case-control study at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Japan. Subjects were 507 patients with newly diagnosed colon (n = 265) and rectal (n = 242) cancers, and 2,535 cancer-free outpatients (controls). Intakes of nutrients and food groups were assessed with a food frequency questionnaire, and multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic models. We found a decreasing risk of colon cancer with increasing intakes of calcium and insoluble dietary fiber; the multivariate ORs across quartiles of intake were 1.00, 0.90, 0.80, and 0.67 (trend p = 0.040), and 1.00, 0.69, 0.64, and 0.65 (trend p = 0.027), respectively. For rectal cancer, a higher consumption of carotene and meat was associated with a reduced risk; the corresponding ORs were 1.00, 1.10, 0.71, and 0.70 for carotene (trend p = 0.028), and 1.00, 0.99, 0.68, and 0.72 for meat (trend p = 0.036). Carbohydrate intake was positively correlated with the risk of rectal cancer (ORs over quartiles: 1.00, 1.14, 1.42, and 1.54; trend p = 0.048). This association was stronger in women, while fat consumption was inversely correlated with the risk of female colon and rectal cancers. Dietary risk factors appear to considerably differ between colon and rectal cancers.

  8. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PRACTICES OF THE STATE YOUTH POLICY IN THE MODERN WORLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Samohvalov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article the author examines a number of foreign cases of practical realization of state youth policy for example the USA, Germany and the Republic of Kazakhstan. The choice of these cases is due to the fact that these countries have an extensive practice of state youth policy. The second factor in the choice of case studies is the fundamental difference between the political systems of countries and as a consequence of the institutional arrangements and the technological features of established models of state youth policy. And fi nally, the third factor is that these States represent different political and cultural traditions. These differences between the traditions have an impact on the diversity of the state youth policy (as the US are a classic example of Western «pluralist» system of youth policy; Germany – West European model of youth policy; Kazakhstan is a bright representative of an effective model of youth policy in the former Soviet Union. Special attention is given to General and specifi c features identified on the basis of comparative analysis, the study of foreign models of youth policy, as well as possible their application in the process of realization of the state youth policy of the Russian Federation.

  9. Weed risk assessment for aquatic plants: modification of a New Zealand system for the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R Gordon

    Full Text Available We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand's Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders, and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31-39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species.

  10. Identification and ranking of the risk factors of cloud computing in State-Owned organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noor Mohammad Yaghoubi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of processing and storage technologies and the success of the Internet have made computing resources cheaper, more powerful and more available than before. This technological trend has enabled the realization of a new computing model called cloud computing. Recently, the State-Owned organizations have begun to utilize cloud computing architectures, platforms, and applications to deliver services and meet constituents’ needs. Despite all of the advantages and opportunities of cloud computing technology, there are so many risks that State-Owned organizations need to know about before their migration to cloud environment. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks factors of cloud computing in State-Owned organizations by making use of IT experts’ opinion. Firstly, by reviewing key articles, a comprehensive list of risks factors were extracted and classified into two categories: tangible and intangible. Then, six experts were interviewed about these risks and their classifications, and 10 risks were identified. After that, process of ranking the risks was done by seeking help from 52 experts and by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. The results show that experts have identified intangible risks as the most important risks in cloud computing usage by State-Owned organizations. As the results indicate, "data confidentiality" risk has the highest place among the other risks.

  11. At risk of being risky: The relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

    OpenAIRE

    Marc D. Rudolph; Oscar Miranda-Domínguez; Alexandra O. Cohen; Kaitlyn Breiner; Laurence Steinberg; Richard J. Bonnie; Elizabeth S. Scott; Kim Taylor-Thompson; Jason Chein; Karla C. Fettich; Jennifer A. Richeson; Danielle V. Dellarco; Adriana Galván; B.J. Casey; Damien A. Fair

    2017-01-01

    Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N = 212; 10–25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a ...

  12. Photovoltaic power stations in Germany and the United States: A comparative study by data envelopment analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki; Goto, Mika

    2014-01-01

    This study compares Photovoltaic (PV) power stations between Germany and the United States to examine which country more efficiently provides renewable energy in their usages. For the comparative analysis, this study utilizes Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a methodology to evaluate the performance of PV power stations from the perspective of both solar and land usages. A total of one hundred sixty PV power stations (eighty in Germany and eighty in the United States) are used for this comparison. The demand for sustainable energy and energy security has been rapidly increasing over the past decade because of concerns about environment and limited resources. PV solutions are one of many renewable technologies that are being developed to satisfy a recent demand of electricity. Germany is the world's top installer and consumer of PV power and the United States is one of the top five nations. Germany leads the way in installed PV capacity even though the nation has less solar resources and land area. Due to limited solar resources, low insolation and sunshine, and land area, the United States should have a clear advantage over Germany. However, the empirical result of this study exhibits that PV power stations in Germany operate more efficiently than those of the United States even if the latter has many solar and land advantages. The surprising result indicates that the United States has room for improvement when it comes to utilizing solar and land resources and needs to reform the solar policy. For such a purpose, Feed-In Tariff (FIT) may be an effective energy policy at the state level in the United States because the FIT provides investors such as utility companies and other types of energy firms with financial incentives to develop large PV power stations and generation facilities for other renewable energy. It may be true that the FIT is a powerful policy tool to promote PV and other renewable installation and support a reduction of an amount of greenhouse

  13. Driving behaviours, traffic risk and road safety: comparative study between Malaysia and Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Saif ur Rehman; Khalifah, Zainab Binti; Munir, Yasin; Islam, Talat; Nazir, Tahira; Khan, Hashim

    2015-01-01

    The present study aims to investigate differences in road safety attitude, driver behaviour and traffic risk perception between Malaysia and Singapore. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted among a sample of Singaporean (n = 187) and Malaysian (n = 313) road users. The data was analysed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling applied to measure comparative fit indices of Malaysian and Singaporean respondents. The results show that the perceived traffic risk of Malaysian respondents is higher than Singaporean counterparts. Moreover, the structural equation modelling has confirmed perceived traffic risk performing the role of full mediation between perceived driving skills and perceived road safety for both the countries, while perceived traffic skills was found to perform the role of partial mediation between aggression and anxiety, on one hand, and road safety, on the other hand, in Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, in both countries, a weak correlation between perceived driving skills, aggression and anxiety with perceived road safety was found, while a strong correlation exists with traffic risk perception. The findings of this study have been discussed in terms of theoretical, practical and conceptual implications for both scholars and policy-makers to better understand the young drivers' attitude and behaviour relationship towards road safety measures with a view to future research.

  14. Visual performance in preterm infants with brain injuries compared with low-risk preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, Merçè; Forns, Maria; Calderón, Caterina; Reinoso, Marta; Gargallo, Estrella

    2012-08-01

    Neonatal brain injuries are the main cause of visual deficit produced by damage to posterior visual pathways. While there are several studies of visual function in low-risk preterm infants or older children with brain injuries, research in children of early age is lacking. To assess several aspects of visual function in preterm infants with brain injuries and to compare them with another group of low-risk preterm infants of the same age. Forty-eight preterm infants with brain injuries and 56 low-risk preterm infants. The ML Leonhardt Battery of Optotypes was used to assess visual functions. This test was previously validated at a post-menstrual age of 40 weeks in newborns and at 30-plus weeks in preterm infants. The group of preterm infants with brain lesions showed a delayed pattern of visual functions in alertness, fixation, visual attention and tracking behavior compared to infants in the healthy preterm group. The differences between both groups, in the visual behaviors analyzed were around 30%. These visual functions could be identified from the first weeks of life. Our results confirm the importance of using a straightforward screening test with preterm infants in order to assess altered visual function, especially in infants with brain injuries. The findings also highlight the need to provide visual stimulation very early on in life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Ascertaining severe perineal trauma and associated risk factors by comparing birth data with multiple sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampt, Amanda J; Ford, Jane B

    2015-09-30

    Population data are often used to monitor severe perineal trauma trends and investigate risk factors. Within New South Wales (NSW), two different datasets can be used, the Perinatal Data Collection ('birth' data) or a linked dataset combining birth data with the Admitted Patient Data Collection ('hospital' data). Severe perineal trauma can be ascertained by birth data alone, or by hospital International Classification of Diseases Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) diagnosis and procedure coding in the linked dataset. The aim of this study was to compare rates and risk factors for severe perineal trauma using birth data alone versus using linked data. The study population consisted of all vaginal births in NSW between 2001 and 2011. Perineal injury coding in birth data was revised in 2006, so data were analysed separately for 2001-06 and 2006-11. Rates of severe perineal injury over time were compared in birth data alone versus linked data. Kappa and agreement statistics were calculated. Risk factor distributions (maternal age, primiparity, instrumental birth, birthweight ≥4 kg, Asian country of birth and episiotomy) were compared between women with severe perineal trauma identified by birth data alone, and those identified by linked data. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of severe perineal trauma. Among 697 202 women with vaginal births, 2.1% were identified with severe perineal trauma by birth data alone, and 2.6% by linked data. The rate discrepancy was higher among earlier data (1.7% for birth data, 2.4% for linked data). Kappa for earlier data was 0.78 (95% CI 0.78, 0.79), and 0.89 (95% CI 0.89, 0.89) for more recent data. With the exception of episiotomy, differences in risk factor distributions were small, with similar aORs. The aOR of severe perineal trauma for episiotomy was higher using linked data (1.33, 95% CI 1.27, 1.40) compared with birth data (1.02, 95% CI 0.97, 1.08). Although discrepancies

  16. Antiseptic mouth rinses: an update on comparative effectiveness, risks and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osso, Diane; Kanani, Nehal

    2013-02-01

    Antiseptic mouth rinses are widely recommended and marketed to improve oral health. This article summarizes current studies on the comparative effectiveness of selected antiseptic mouth rinses in controlling plaque and gingivitis, as well as risks associated with daily exposure, including salivary flow rate, oral cancer and wear of composite restorations. Electronic database searches were conducted using Google Scholar and PubMed to identify articles comparing the effectiveness of 4 commercially marketed antiseptic mouth rinses differing in active ingredients (0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate, essential oils (menthol, thymol and eucalyptol) and methyl salicylate, 0.7% cetylpyridinium chloride and 20% aloe vera gel) for controlling plaque and gingivitis. Criteria for inclusion included controlled clinical trials and systematic reviews appearing in English language publications evaluating the comparative effectiveness of the mouth rinses in controlling plaque and gingivitis, as well as risks associated with daily usage. The majority of studies have shown mouth rinses containing chlorhexidine gluconate or essential oils and methyl salicylate provide clinically significant anti-gingivitis and anti-plaque benefits. Cetylpyridinium chloride has been found to provide only limited clinical benefits compared to inactive control mouth rinse. Inadequate evidence is available to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of aloe vera gel. Chlorhexidine, essential oils and cetylpyridinium have been found to be safe. However, limited data are available on the effects of the mouth rinse on wear patterns of dental restorations. Studies reviewed reported no significant difference in salivary flow rate related to alcohol based mouth rinse. Research supports the effectiveness of antiseptic mouth rinses in reducing plaque and gingivitis as an adjunct to home care. Insufficient evidence is available to support the claim that oral antiseptics can reduce the risk of developing periodontitis or the

  17. Managing crime through migration law in Australia and the United States: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Khanh; Reich, Sudrishti

    2017-01-01

    This article examines the intertwining of migration law and criminal law - termed 'crimmigration' by scholars - in Australia and the United States of America, and its implications for non-citizens who engage in criminal conduct. Our comparison of the two systems demonstrates that the laws and policies in both jurisdictions are similar to a significant degree. Both have strong exclusionary policies characterised by sweeping visa cancellation/removal powers, a heavy focus on enforcement, and limited review rights. In Australia, legislative amendments in 2014 have given the executive greater powers to cancel visas and remove non-citizens on character grounds as a means of ensuring national security and public safety. This has coincided with a new law enforcement body created within the Australian Department of Immigration. These changes reflect a repurposing of migration law as a tool for managing criminal threats based on the concept of 'risk management'. Drawing on the experience of the United States - where such a 'risk management' approach is entrenched - we query the utility of this shift and highlight the potential pitfalls of pursuing such a policy for Australia.

  18. Smoking, alcohol, coffee, tea, caffeine, and theobromine: risk of prostate cancer in Utah (United States).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slattery, M L; West, D W

    1993-11-01

    Data from a population-based study of newly diagnosed cases of prostate cancer (n = 362) and age-matched controls (n = 685) conducted in Utah (United States) between 1983 and 1986 were used to determine if cigarette smoking, alcohol, coffee, tea, caffeine, and theobromine were associated with prostate cancer risk. These factors were examined since their use differs in the Utah population, which is comprised predominantly of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormon), from most other populations. Pack-years of cigarettes smoked, alcohol intake, and consumption of alcohol, coffee, tea, and caffeine were not associated with prostate cancer risk. Compared with men with very low levels of theobromine intake, older men consuming 11 to 20 and over 20 mg of theobromine per day were at increased risk of prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] for all tumors = 2.06, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 1.33-3.20, and OR = 1.47, CI = 0.99-2.19, respectively; OR for aggressive tumors = 1.90, CI = 0.90-3.97, and OR = 1.74, CI = 0.91-3.32, respectively). We present biological mechanisms for a possible association between prostate cancer and theobromine. This finding needs further exploration in studies with a wider range of theobromine exposures and more men with aggressive tumors.

  19. Health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Algren, Maria Holst; Bak, Carsten Kronborg; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele

    2015-01-01

    in deprived neighbourhoods compared with those who live in non-deprived neighbourhoods and to summarise what kind of operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation that were used in the studies. METHODS: PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. Systematic searches were performed in Pub......Med, Embase, Web of Science and Sociological Abstracts using relevant search terms, Boolean operators, and truncation, and reference lists were scanned. Quantitative observational studies that examined health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods were eligible...... for inclusion. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 22 studies. The available literature showed a positive association between smoking and physical inactivity and living in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods. In regard to low fruit and vegetable consumption and alcohol...

  20. A comparative critical study between FMEA and FTA risk analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristea, G.; Constantinescu, DM

    2017-10-01

    Today there is used an overwhelming number of different risk analyses techniques with acronyms such as: FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and its extension FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis), DRBFM (Design Review by Failure Mode), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and and its extension ETA (Event Tree Analysis), HAZOP (Hazard & Operability Studies), HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) and What-if/Checklist. However, the most used analysis techniques in the mechanical and electrical industry are FMEA and FTA. In FMEA, which is an inductive method, information about the consequences and effects of the failures is usually collected through interviews with experienced people, and with different knowledge i.e., cross-functional groups. The FMEA is used to capture potential failures/risks & impacts and prioritize them on a numeric scale called Risk Priority Number (RPN) which ranges from 1 to 1000. FTA is a deductive method i.e., a general system state is decomposed into chains of more basic events of components. The logical interrelationship of how such basic events depend on and affect each other is often described analytically in a reliability structure which can be visualized as a tree. Both methods are very time-consuming to be applied thoroughly, and this is why it is oftenly not done so. As a consequence possible failure modes may not be identified. To address these shortcomings, it is proposed to use a combination of FTA and FMEA.

  1. Natural radioactivity in sand beaches of Guarapari, Espirito Santo state, Brazil: a comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Danilo C.; Pereira, Claubia; Oliveira, Arno H.; Santos, Talita O.; Reis, Patricia L.

    2011-01-01

    Using gamma ray spectrometry, the activity concentration of naturally occurring radionuclides 226 Ra, 232 Th, and 40 K was determined in sand beaches samples from different areas in Guarapari, Espirito Santo state, from Brazil. The absorbed dose rates and annual effective dose were calculated and the results are compared with the internationally accepted values as well as others high background radiation areas (HBRAs).The activity concentration of the 232 Th in Areia Preta as well as the absorbed dose rates and annual effective dose were higher than the others regions compared. The results show that Areia Preta in Guarapari has higher background found in beaches in world. (author)

  2. Culture and health reporting: a comparative content analysis of newspapers in the United States and China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Lu; Peng, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Health reporting has the potential to educate the public and promote health behaviors. Culture influences the style of such communication. Following the theorization of national cultures by Hofstede and Hofstede (2005) and Wilber (2000), this study compares health reporting in the United States and China through a content analysis of leading newspapers. The authors discover significant differences in health reporting in terms of controllability attribution, temporal orientation, citation of authority sources, and use of statistics. As one of the first comparative content analysis studies of health reporting in Eastern and Western cultures, this study provides a unique cultural lens for health communication scholars to better understand health information in the news media.

  3. A comparative study of Japan and United States nuclear enterprise: Industry structure and construction experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinman, G.W.; Lowinger, T.C.

    1987-01-01

    Both Japan and the United States have undertaken major programs to utilize nuclear power for central station electricity generation. Over the past 20 years, the Japanese have developed their own construction and government regulatory institutions and now have an essentially independent domestic nuclear power program. Nuclear construction and government oversight of nuclear power have developed somewhat differently in Japan and the United States, reflecting to some extent the two countries' different business and social cultures. In the United States the vendor and utility industries are much more fragmented than those in Japan, and construction projects are carried out on a more competitive basis. The Japanese industry operates through a few well-established consortia while the U.S. industry does not. Relations among the national government, the vendors, and the electric utilities tend to be cooperative in Japan while they are more adversarial in the Untied States. This paper discusses these topics in a framework of a comparative study of the countries' nuclear industries. Whether because of the factors mentioned above or for other reasons the success of nuclear power in Japan and the United States has differed dramatically in recent years. This paper compares the performance of the nuclear enterprise in these two countries in terms of the physical attributes of the plants themselves, the labor required to build them, and the construction times required. It also discusses the relationship between initial estimates of costs and schedules and actual results achieved. On all counts, recent Japanese performance has been better than in the United States

  4. Food production in Poland, compared to selected European Union Member States

    OpenAIRE

    Wrzesińska-Kowal, Joanna; Drabarczyk, Katarzyna

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to characterize the food sector in Poland during 2008-2012, compared to selected European Union Member States, and to define the factors affecting growth of the sector under consideration. The structure of sold production of the Polish food industry and the levels of food production in Europe are presented in the paper. Discussion covers quantitative fluctuations in the number of businesses and production value of food products, as well as employment and salaries ...

  5. RISK DISCLOSURE ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANNUAL REPORT USING FUZZY-SET QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Carmona

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the necessary and sufficient conditions of good Corporate Governance practices for high risk disclosure by firms in their Corporate Governance Annual Report. Additionally, we explore whether those recipes have changed during the financial crisis. With a sample of 271 Spanish listed companies, we applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to a database of financial and non-financial data. We report that Board of Directors independence, size, level of activity and gender diversity, CEO duality, Audit Committee independence, being audited by the Big Four auditing firms and the presence of institutional investors are associated with high risk disclosure. The conditions included in almost every combination are the presence of institutional investors and being audited by the Big Four. We found similar combinations for 2006 and 2012, while the analysis for 2009 showed the lowest number of causal configurations.

  6. Reduced brain resting-state network specificity in infants compared with adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Korey P; Rojas, Donald C; Ross, Randal G; Hunter, Sharon K; Maharajh, Keeran; Cornier, Marc-Andre; Tregellas, Jason R

    2014-01-01

    Infant resting-state networks do not exhibit the same connectivity patterns as those of young children and adults. Current theories of brain development emphasize developmental progression in regional and network specialization. We compared infant and adult functional connectivity, predicting that infants would exhibit less regional specificity and greater internetwork communication compared with adults. Functional magnetic resonance imaging at rest was acquired in 12 healthy, term infants and 17 adults. Resting-state networks were extracted, using independent components analysis, and the resulting components were then compared between the adult and infant groups. Adults exhibited stronger connectivity in the posterior cingulate cortex node of the default mode network, but infants had higher connectivity in medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex than adults. Adult connectivity was typically higher than infant connectivity within structures previously associated with the various networks, whereas infant connectivity was frequently higher outside of these structures. Internetwork communication was significantly higher in infants than in adults. We interpret these findings as consistent with evidence suggesting that resting-state network development is associated with increasing spatial specificity, possibly reflecting the corresponding functional specialization of regions and their interconnections through experience.

  7. Comparing performance of 30-day readmission risk classifiers among hospitalized primary care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, Gregory M; Robelia, Paul M; Pecina, Jennifer L; Dawson, Nancy L

    2017-06-01

    Hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge occurs in almost 20% of US Medicare patients and may be a marker of poor quality inpatient care, ineffective hospital to home transitions, or disease severity. Within a patient centered medical home, care transition interventions may only be practical from cost and staffing perspectives if targeted at patients with the greatest risk of readmission. Various scoring algorithms attempt to predict patients at risk for 30-day readmission, but head-to-head comparison of performance is lacking. Compare published scoring algorithms which use generally available electronic medical record data on the same set of hospitalized primary care patients. The LACE index, the LACE+ index, the HOSPITAL score, and the readmission risk score were computed on a consecutive cohort of 26,278 hospital admissions. Classifier performance was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristic curves comparing the computed score with the actual outcome of death or readmission within 30 days. Statistical significance of differences in performance was assessed using bootstrapping techniques. Correct readmission classification on this cohort was moderate with the following c-statistics: Readmission risk score 0.666; LACE 0.680; LACE+ 0.662; and HOSPITAL 0.675. There was no statistically significant difference in performance between classifiers. Logistic regression based classifiers yield only moderate performance when utilized to predict 30-day readmissions. The task is difficult due to the variety of underlying causes for readmission, nonlinearity, and the arbitrary time period of concern. More sophisticated classification techniques may be necessary to increase performance and allow patient centered medical homes to effectively focus efforts to reduce readmissions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Fractures in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Comparative Study Between England and New York State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Julia; Mytton, Jemma; Evison, Felicity; Gill, Paramjit S; Cockwell, Paul; Sharif, Adnan; Ferro, Charles J

    2017-11-15

    Fractures are associated with high morbidity and are a major concern for kidney transplant recipients. No comparative analysis has yet been conducted between countries in the contemporary era to inform future international prevention trials. Data were obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics and the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative databases on all adult kidney transplants performed in England and New York State from 2003 to 2013, respectively, and on posttransplant fracture-related hospitalization from 2003 to 2014. Our analysis included 18 493 English and 11 602 New York State kidney transplant recipients. Overall, 637 English recipients (3.4%) and 398 New York State recipients (3.4%) sustained a fracture, giving an unadjusted event rate of 7.0 and 5.9 per 1000 years, respectively (P = .948). Of these, 147 English (0.8%) and 101 New York State recipients (0.9%) sustained a hip fracture, giving an unadjusted event rate of 1.6 and 1.5 per 1000 years, respectively (P = .480). There were no differences in the cumulative incidence of all fractures or hip fractures. One-year mortality rates after any fracture (9% and 11%) or after a hip fracture (15% and 17%) were not different between cohorts. Contemporaneous English and New York State kidney transplant recipients have similar fracture rates and mortality rates postfracture.

  9. Sociocultural factors in public acceptance: comparative risk studies involving France, the USA and the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poumadere, M.; Mays, C.

    1995-12-31

    Examples are given of two types of comparative study that explore the sociocultural factors that shape public attitudes. In the first, public perceptions of nuclear power were assessed by answers to a questionnaire on a broad range of factors by 1500 people in France and the USA. A degree of homogeniety was observed in the responses from France and the USA. Strikingly, both populations agreed in their evaluation of the health risk represented by nuclear power plant. Thus the apparently greater acceptance of nuclear power in France does not seem to be associated with a lesser perception of risk. However, presented with the statement ``We can trust the experts and engineers who build, operate and regulate nuclear power`` 66% of the French agreed compared to only 43% of the Americans. These results reflect two different types of relationship between society and authority. In the second study the approach to gaining public trust and acceptance in the siting of nuclear waste research facilities was compared between the UK and France. Striking differences were found. In this case, too, an explanation can be put forward in terms of the sociocultural variables which influence institutional decision making, particularly in the role and form given to authority. (UK).

  10. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  11. Nonuse of contraception among women at risk of unintended pregnancy in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, William; Jones, Jo; Abma, Joyce

    2015-08-01

    This paper seeks to determine factors associated with nonuse of contraception by women at risk of unintended pregnancy in the United States. This nonuse may be associated with about 900,000 unintended births in the US each year. The 2002 and 2006-2010 National Surveys of Family Growth were combined to yield a nationally representative sample of 9,445 women at risk of unintended pregnancy. Logistic regression analyses identified factors associated with nonuse of contraception. This analysis reveals previously undocumented patterns of nonuse: controlling for confounding variables, cohabiting women [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.45-3.52] had higher odds of nonuse than married women; women who reported a difficulty getting pregnant (AOR=2.5, 95% CI=2.01-3.01) had higher odds of nonuse than those who did not. Nonuse was also more common among women with a master's degree or more (AOR=1.5, 95% CI=1.11-2.08) compared with those with some college or bachelor's degree, and it was more common among women in their first year after first intercourse than after the first year (AOR 1.6, 95% CI=1.12-2.22). Among women who had a recent unintended birth, the most common reason for not using contraception prior to conception was that she did not think she could get pregnant. This study establishes national estimates of reasons for nonuse of contraception and identifies some new subgroups at risk of nonuse. These results may help better understand factors affecting nonuse of contraception and develop strategies for preventing unintended pregnancy in the United States. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Living with Risk in Everyday Life - A Comparative Analysis on Handling and Reflecting Risk in Everyday Actions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elverdam, Beth; Hoel Felde, Lina Klara

    phones; chemicals in a nursery; elevated cholesterol was combined to analyse the concept of risk in everyday life. In-depth qualitative interviews with 46 people made it possible to analyse a general perception of risk in everyday life. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological thematical content...... analysis. Results: Although risk is communicated in the media and by health personnel, and thus has a general presence in society, participants in everyday life place risk at the periphery of life. Risk is not part of their everyday reflections. When risk manifests itself in everyday life, it is reflected...

  13. Comparative Analysis of Minimum Income Guaranteed Schemes within the Member States of the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Maria Stănescu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The commitment of the European Union (EU Member States towards accomplishing the commonly agreed goals (1997 European Employment Strategy, Lisbon 2000, and Europe 2020 is supported by a continuous assessment of domestic social policy tendencies. From this perspective, the main goal of the paper is to comparatively analyse the last safety net for the most vulnerable people. The screening of guaranteed minimum resources provides an overview of the applicable statutory basis, schemes in place, types of social benefits concerned, financing and organisation mechanisms, eligibility conditions, duration and time limits. As methodology, the article uses the MISSOC database, and due to the current lack of comparable information, recommendations for further harmonisation are included. 20 of the EU member states follow the minimum income guaranteed (MIG regulations adopted already during the pre-accession period and updated after the accession phase. Seven types of domestic regulations are in force, among which the most frequent ones are acts and laws (ten countries. Common concepts used are social, and assistance. Provided allowances are mainly focused on elderly people, unemployment benefits, pensions, allowances supporting various house related costs, and benefits for disabled people. In line with 2007, 2010, and 2014 data, the financing of guaranteed minimum resources continues to remain mainly central with a shift in 2014 towards mixed financing (both central and local. The management in 2014 continues to be mainly centrally organised but the local stakeholders are also empowered. The residency is the most frequent eligibility condition. No nationality is required in 24 EU member states, for all allowances (21 countries or for particular ones (three countries. 17 member states require no age conditions. Unlimited guaranteed minimum resources were provided in 2014 as long as the eligibility criteria were met in 23 EU member states.

  14. A comparative study on the edge states in phosphorene quantum dots and rings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Z.T., E-mail: jiangzhaotan@bit.edu.cn; Liang, F.X.; Zhang, X.D.

    2017-01-30

    Using the tight-binding Hamiltonian approach, we comparatively investigate the energy spectrums of triangular zigzag phosphorene quantum dots (PQDs) and rings (PQRs), as well as their potential applications. In comparison with the outer edge states in the PQD, new extra inner edge states can be produced in the PQR by its internal hole. A transition from the uncoupled to coupled edge states can be induced by decreasing the width between the outer and inner edges of the PQR. Also, the edge states in PQD/PQR are all anisotropically localized in one side, rather than three sides as in triangular graphene quantum dots (QDs) and rings (QRs). Furthermore, the PQD/PQR energy levels can be anisotropically manipulated by the external electric fields and strains, clearly demonstrating their potential applications in field effect transistors or electromechanical devices. In the meanwhile, we also consider the electron probability distributions corresponding to the different energy levels, clearly exposing the characteristics of the PQD/PQR energy levels. The comparison between the asymmetrical triangular PQDs/PQRs and the symmetrical triangular QDs/QRs in graphene should be instructive for understanding the similar triangular QDs/QRs in other two-dimensional layered materials, as well as other types of QDs/QRs of different shapes. - Highlights: • We make a comparative study on the energy levels of the phosphorene quantum dots and rings. • The energy levels can be anisotropically controlled by the electric field and the strains, different from those in graphene counterparts. • The edge states in phosphorene triangular quantum dot and rings are anisotropic. • A helpful reference for understanding phosphorene nanostructures of other shapes and designing devices.

  15. Reduced brain resting-state network specificity in infants compared with adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wylie KP

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Korey P Wylie,1,* Donald C Rojas,1,* Randal G Ross,1 Sharon K Hunter,1 Keeran Maharajh,1 Marc-Andre Cornier,2 Jason R Tregellas1,3 1Department of Psychiatry, 2Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism and Diabetes, Department of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA; 3Denver Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Denver, CO, USA *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: Infant resting-state networks do not exhibit the same connectivity patterns as those of young children and adults. Current theories of brain development emphasize developmental progression in regional and network specialization. We compared infant and adult functional connectivity, predicting that infants would exhibit less regional specificity and greater internetwork communication compared with adults.Patients and methods: Functional magnetic resonance imaging at rest was acquired in 12 healthy, term infants and 17 adults. Resting-state networks were extracted, using independent components analysis, and the resulting components were then compared between the adult and infant groups.Results: Adults exhibited stronger connectivity in the posterior cingulate cortex node of the default mode network, but infants had higher connectivity in medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex than adults. Adult connectivity was typically higher than infant connectivity within structures previously associated with the various networks, whereas infant connectivity was frequently higher outside of these structures. Internetwork communication was significantly higher in infants than in adults.Conclusion: We interpret these findings as consistent with evidence suggesting that resting-state network development is associated with increasing spatial specificity, possibly reflecting the corresponding functional specialization of regions and their interconnections through experience. Keywords: functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging

  16. Temporal trends in marijuana attitudes, availability and use in Colorado compared to non-medical marijuana states: 2003-11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuermeyer, Joseph; Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Price, Rumi Kato; Balan, Sundari; Thurstone, Christian; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T

    2014-07-01

    In 2009, policy changes were accompanied by a rapid increase in the number of medical marijuana cardholders in Colorado. Little published epidemiological work has tracked changes in the state around this time. Using the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we tested for temporal changes in marijuana attitudes and marijuana-use-related outcomes in Colorado (2003-11) and differences within-year between Colorado and thirty-four non-medical-marijuana states (NMMS). Using regression analyses, we further tested whether patterns seen in Colorado prior to (2006-8) and during (2009-11) marijuana commercialization differed from patterns in NMMS while controlling for demographics. Within Colorado those reporting "great-risk" to using marijuana 1-2 times/week dropped significantly in all age groups studied between 2007-8 and 2010-11 (e.g. from 45% to 31% among those 26 years and older; p=0.0006). By 2010-11 past-year marijuana abuse/dependence had become more prevalent in Colorado for 12-17 year olds (5% in Colorado, 3% in NMMS; p=0.03) and 18-25 year olds (9% vs. 5%; p=0.02). Regressions demonstrated significantly greater reductions in perceived risk (12-17 year olds, p=0.005; those 26 years and older, p=0.01), and trend for difference in changes in availability among those 26 years and older and marijuana abuse/dependence among 12-17 year olds in Colorado compared to NMMS in more recent years (2009-11 vs. 2006-8). Our results show that commercialization of marijuana in Colorado has been associated with lower risk perception. Evidence is suggestive for marijuana abuse/dependence. Analyses including subsequent years 2012+ once available, will help determine whether such changes represent momentary vs. sustained effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Carcinogenic risk assessment and management of ionising radiation, asbestos and nickel: a comparative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, T.; Lepicard, S.; Oudiz, A.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Gadbois, S.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study is to identify the similarities as well as the differences of risk assessment and management of ionizing radiation, asbestos and nickel in France. The comparison has been performed at three levels of analysis: concepts, regulation and practices. Ionizing radiation (IR) is compared with asbestos as far as occupational exposure is concerned and to nickel and nickel compounds as far as general population exposure is concerned. The three main stages of risk assessment were considered: hazard identification, exposure-risk relationship, exposure assessment. Alternative risk management policies were reviewed. The main results are the following: At the conceptual level, the risk assessment and management frameworks present many similarities: exposure-risk relationships exist, and low dose extrapolation is considered as legitimate. Comparison of protection strategies can be carried out with reference to the 'optimization' principle developed for IR. At the regulatory level, the status of the IR dose limits differs from the status of the exposure limit values set for asbestos and nickel. For IR, compliance with the dose limit cannot be seen as the final objective of protection: the burden is put on the requirement to maintain the doses as low as reasonably achievable, social and economical factors being taken into account (ALARA). In most of the situations, actual exposure to IR in industry appear to be significantly lower than the dose limit. In the case of asbestos and nickel, the exposure limit values are very low and compliance with the limits is indeed a quite ambitious objective. At the practical level, some noticeable differences exist as far as the decision aiding procedures are concerned. A process which may be considered as an ALARA approach is applied, in the case of nickel: seeking for the 'best available technologies', defining and implementing with stakeholdes regional plans for air quality. In the case of asbestos, the predictive

  18. Human health tradeoffs in wellhead drinking water treatment: Comparing exposure reduction to embedded life cycle risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Mac; Chester, Mikhail; Hristovski, Kiril; Westerhoff, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Treatment of drinking water decreases human health risks by reducing pollutants, but the required materials, chemicals, and energy emit pollutants and increase health risks. We explored human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic disease tradeoffs of water treatment by comparing pollutant dose-response curves against life cycle burden using USEtox methodology. An illustrative wellhead sorbent groundwater treatment system removing hexavalent chromium or pentavalent arsenic serving 3200 people was studied. Reducing pollutant concentrations in drinking water from 20 μg L -1 to 10 μg L -1 avoided 37 potential cancer cases and 64 potential non-cancer disease cases. Human carcinogenicity embedded in treatment was 0.2-5.3 cases, and non-carcinogenic toxicity was 0.2-14.3 cases, depending on technology and degree of treatment. Embedded toxicity impacts from treating Cr(VI) using strong-base anion exchange were 90% of the toxicity impacts for treatment options requiring pH control. In scenarios where benefits exceeded burdens, tradeoffs still existed. Benefits are experienced by a local population but burdens are born externally where the materials and energy are produced, thus exporting the health risks. Even when burdens clearly exceeded benefits, cost considerations may still drive selecting a detrimental treatment level or technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Diversity of United States medical students by region compared to US census data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith MM

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Mark M Smith,1 Steven H Rose,1 Darrell R Schroeder,2 Timothy R Long1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA; 2Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA Purpose: Increasing the diversity of the United States (US physician workforce to better represent the general population has received considerable attention. The purpose of this study was to compare medical student race data to that of the US general population. We hypothesized that race demographics of medical school matriculants would reflect that of the general population. Patients and methods: Published race data from the United States Census Bureau (USCB 2010 census and the 2011 Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC allopathic medical school application and enrollment by race and ethnicity survey were analyzed and compared. Race data of enrolled medical students was compared to race data of the general population within geographic regions and subregions. Additionally, race data of medical school applicants and matriculants were compared to race data of the overall general population. Results: Race distribution within US medical schools was significantly different than race distribution for the overall, regional, and subregional populations of the US (P<0.001. Additionally, the overall race distribution of medical school applicants differed significantly to the race distribution of the general population (P<0.001. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that race demographics of US medical school applicants and matriculants are significantly different from that of the general population, and may be resultant of societal quandaries present early in formal education. Initiatives targeting underrepresented minorities at an early stage to enhance health care career interest and provide academic support and mentorship will be required to address the racial disparity that exists in US

  20. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  1. A Comparative Analysis of University Information Systems within the Scope of the Information Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rustu Yilmaz

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Universities are the leading institutions that are the sources of educated human population who both produce information and ensure to develop new products and new services by using information effectively, and who are needed in every area. Therefore, universities are expected to be institutions where information and information management are used efficiently. In the present study, the topics such as infrastructure, operation, application, information, policy and human-based information security at universities were examined within the scope of the information security standards which are highly required and intended to be available at each university today, and then a comparative analysis was conducted specific to Turkey. Within the present study, the Microsoft Security Assessment Tool developed by Microsoft was used as the risk analysis tool. The analyses aim to enable the universities to compare their information systems with the information systems of other universities within the scope of the information security awareness, and to make suggestions in this regard.

  2. Alcohol and homicide in Russia and the United States: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landberg, Jonas; Norström, Thor

    2011-09-01

    The object of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of the aggregate relationship between alcohol and homicide in Russia and in the United States. The comparison was based on the magnitude of the alcohol effect, the alcohol attributable fraction (AAF), and the degree to which total consumption could account for trends in homicide. We analyzed total and sex-specific homicide rates for the age groups 15-64 years, 15-34 years, and 35-64 years. The study period was 1959-1998 for Russia and 1950-2002 for the United States. For the United States, alcohol consumption was gauged by sales of alcohol; for Russia, estimated unrecorded consumption was included as well. The data were analyzed through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. The results show that, for Russia as well as for the United States, a 1-L increase in consumption was associated with an increase in homicides of about 10%, although the absolute effect was markedly larger in Russia because of differences in homicide rates. The AAF estimates suggested that 73% and 57% of the homicides would be attributable to alcohol in Russia and in the United States, respectively. Most of the temporal variation in the Russian homicide rate could be accounted for by the trend in drinking, whereas the U.S. trend in total alcohol consumption had a more limited ability to predict the trend in homicides. We conclude that the role of alcohol in homicide seems to be larger in Russia than in the United States.

  3. The risk of venous thromboembolism with aspirin compared to anticoagulants after hip and knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Janet N; Maselli, Judith; Auerbach, Andrew D; Fang, Margaret C

    2017-07-01

    Recent guidelines include aspirin as an option to prevent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in selected patients undergoing hip or knee replacement surgery. However, the efficacy of aspirin after arthroplasty has not been well-defined, particularly in more contemporary patient populations. We compared rates of post-operative VTE between patients who received aspirin-only versus anticoagulants after hip or knee arthroplasty, using data from a large US-based administrative database. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 231,780 adults who underwent total knee arthroplasty and 110,621 who underwent total hip arthroplasty in 2009-2012 and who received pharmacologic VTE prophylaxis (aspirin or anticoagulant) within the first 7days after surgery. We compared the risk of post-operative VTE between patients receiving aspirin-only vs. anticoagulants, controlling for clinical and hospital characteristics using multivariable logistic regression with propensity score adjustment. Aspirin-only prophylaxis was administered to 7.5% of patients after knee arthroplasty and 8.0% after hip arthroplasty. Post-operative VTE was diagnosed in 2217 (0.96%) patients after knee arthroplasty and 454 (0.41%) after hip arthroplasty. Compared to anticoagulants, aspirin was not associated with a higher risk for post-operative VTE either after knee arthroplasty (adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [OR] 0.34 [0.24-0.48]) or hip arthroplasty (OR 0.82 [0.45-1.51]). Aspirin was uncommonly administered as the sole prophylactic agent after hip or knee arthroplasty in this study. However, patients who received aspirin-only had similar rates of post-operative VTE compared to patients who received anticoagulants. Further research should focus on distinguishing which patients benefit more from anticoagulants versus aspirin after arthroplasty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Incidental Affective State and Financial Risk: Beyond a Valence-Based Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Galentino Andrea; Bonini Nicolao

    2014-01-01

    Standard economic models explain decision-making under risk as a methodical utility maximization process. Developments in cognitive psychology and neuroeconomics show the volatility of such conceptualization highlighting human bounded rationality and discussing the role of decision makers' affective state in cognitive evaluations of risk ("risk as feelings"). Affective influences may be elicited by the decision process itself (integral affect) or might be associated with stimuli/events unrela...

  5. A Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience Composite Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccari, Benjamin

    2016-03-14

    % to the disaster environment, 20% to the economic environment, 13% to the built environment, 6% to the natural environment and 3% were other indices. However variables specifically measuring action to mitigate or prepare for disasters only comprised 12%, on average, of the total number of variables in each index. Only 19% of methodologies employed any sensitivity or uncertainty analysis and in only a single case was this comprehensive. A number of potential limitations of the present state of practice and how these might impact on decision makers are discussed. In particular the limited deployment of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and the low use of direct measures of disaster risk, vulnerability and resilience could significantly limit the quality and reliability of existing methodologies. Recommendations for improvements to indicator development and use are made, as well as suggested future research directions to enhance the theoretical and empirical knowledge base for composite indicator development.

  6. Assessment of independent risk factors of conversion into psychosis in the ultra-high risk state group of patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Gawłowska

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was the independent psychosis risk factors assessment in a group of subjects fulfilling the criteria of at risk mental state, under specialist outpatient psychiatric care. Participants: Seventy-one patients – 33 women and 38 men, were involved into this study, aged on average 17.34, all under psychiatric care. The patients were recruited into the study in the sequence of their outpatient clinic admission. The criterion to be included into the study was the diagnosis of ultra-high risk state (UHRS – defined according to the Australian research group principles. Subsequently, the patients were divided into subgroups according to the clinical features of their mental state. Method: The author’s demographic questionnaire was applied in the study. Information regarding the family history of psychosis was obtained from patients and/or their relatives or carers. The patients’ mental state was assessed monthly – according to the presence of psychotic symptoms, change of their incidence and duration, presence of depressive symptoms or aggressive behaviour (measured by a three-level scale. On the basis of the obtained information, we evaluated: 1 conversion into psychosis time – measured from diagnosing of UHRS to the development of full-symptom psychosis, 2 therapeutic methods used (psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy or both, 3 use of psychoactive substances after being diagnosed with UHRS, 4 presence of serious life stressors (the patients’ subjective estimation – during the six-month period preceding the conversion into psychosis. Results: 1 In the UHRS group of patients, staying under professional outpatient psychiatric care, the use of marijuana was an independent risk factor of conversion into psychosis. 2 In the investigated group of patients with at risk mental state we did not find any correlation between modulating factors (including: therapeutic methods used, depressive symptoms, aggression or

  7. A comparative study of risk factors for corneal infection in diabetic and non-diabetic patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To compare the clinical characteristics of infectious keratopathy in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM and non-diabetes mellitus (NDM and to investigate risk factors for infectious keratopathy in T2DM patients. METHODS: Totally 230 patients with T2DM and 168 with NDM diagnosed as infectious keratopathy were hospitalized at Qingdao Eye Hospital from 2001 to 2015. Data including sex, age, occupation, season, smoking and alcohol consumption habits, duration between onset and treatments, duration of hospitalization were collected. Initially identified indicators were analyzed with a multivariate logistic regression. Glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c in patients with T2DM was analyzed. The infectious keratopathies in the two groups were categorized and compared. RESULTS: The diabetic group consisted of 146 (63.5% males and 84 (36.5% females. The NDM group consisted of 111 (66.1% males and 57 (33.9% females. There was no signigicantly difference in sex distribution between the two groups (P>0.05. There were significant differences in age, occupation of patients, season of the onset of diseases, duration between onset and treatment, and durations of hospitalization between the two groups (P0.05. CONCLUSION: Advanced age and the summer and winter seasons are identified as risk factors for infectious keratopathy in T2DM patients, and T2DM patients are more prone to bacterial keratitis.

  8. 76 FR 34953 - Funding Opportunity Title: Risk Management Education in Targeted States (Targeted States Program...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-15

    ... Availability C. Location and Target Audience D. Maximum Award E. Project Period F. Description of Agreement..., 2011. C. Location and Target Audience The RMA Regional Offices that service the Targeted States are... marketing systems to pursue new markets. D. Purpose The purpose of the Targeted States Program is to provide...

  9. Comparative risk assessment of the first-generation anticoagulant rodenticide diphacinone to raptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Lazarus, Rebecca S.; Eisenreich, Karen M.; Horak, Katherine E.; Volker, Steven F.; Campton, Christopher M.; Eisemann, John D.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Johnson, John J.

    2012-01-01

    New regulatory restrictions have been placed on the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in the United States, and in some situations this action may be offset by expanded use of first-generation compounds. We have recently conducted several studies with captive adult American kestrels and eastern screech-owls examining the toxicity of diphacinone (DPN) using both acute oral and short-term dietary exposure regimens. Diphacinone evoked overt signs of intoxication and lethality in these raptors at exposure doses that were 20 to 30 times lower than reported for traditionally used wildlife test species (mallard and northern bobwhite). Sublethal exposure of kestrels and owls resulted in prolonged clotting time, reduced hematocrit, and/or gross and histological evidence of hemorrhage at daily doses as low as 0.16 mg DPN/kg body weight. Findings also demonstrated that DPN was far more potent in short-term 7-day dietary studies than in single-day acute oral exposure studies. Incorporating these kestrel and owl data into deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments indicated that the risks associated with DPN exposure for raptors are far greater than predicted in analyses using data from mallards and bobwhite. These findings can assist natural resource managers in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs.

  10. Comparative Assessment Of Coastal Tourism Potentials Of Selected Areas In Rivers State Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obinwanne

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The study examined coastal tourism potentials in Rivers State with emphasis on Opobo Bonny and Port Harcourt to determine the area that has comparative advantage for tourism development to optimally utilize resources. The study was conducted in Bonny Opobo and Port Harcourt of River State Nigeria. The area occupies the land close to the Atlantic Ocean within 60km radius from the coast. A survey design was adopted for the study. The instruments used were observation checklist and interview schedule. The instruments were tested for validity and reliability using five experts drawn from the field. The data collected were analyzed using ethnographic description method of analysis to answer research questions. The natural attractions found include mangrove forest sacred forests sacred rivers lakes beaches fishing rivers natural sources of drinking water and sanctuary. The cultural heritage resources were historical monument shrines museums different cultural festivals cultural materials and slave port. The man-made attractions were recreational park zoological garden and tourism village. It was found that there were more tourism potentials in Port Harcourt study site more than Bonny and Opobo sites and therefore Port Harcourt has comparative advantage over Bonny and Opobo for tourism development. Therefore efforts should be made and scarce resources utilized towards developing those coastal areas with best potentials and comparative advantage over others.

  11. Comparative Analysis and Considerations for PV Interconnection Standards in the United States and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2017-01-01

    The main objectives of this report are to evaluate China's photovoltaic (PV) interconnection standards and the U.S. counterparts and to propose recommendations for future revisions to these standards. This report references the 2013 report Comparative Study of Standards for Grid-Connected PV System in China, the U.S. and European Countries, which compares U.S., European, and China's PV grid interconnection standards; reviews various metrics for the characterization of distribution network with PV; and suggests modifications to China's PV interconnection standards and requirements. The recommendations are accompanied by assessments of four high-penetration PV grid interconnection cases in the United States to illustrate solutions implemented to resolve issues encountered at different sites. PV penetration in China and in the United States has significantly increased during the past several years, presenting comparable challenges depending on the conditions of the grid at the point of interconnection; solutions are generally unique to each interconnected PV installation or PV plant.

  12. A comparative study of symptoms in multiple lacunar state and MRI findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibata, Youichi

    1993-01-01

    A multiple lacunar state is considered to cause gait disturbance, pseudobulbar palsy, or silent stroke. In the present study, these symptoms is multiple lacunar state and the incidences of abnormal findings on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were investigated comparatively. Thirty-eight patients (23 males and 15 females; average age 73.6 y.o.) with ischemic cerebral lesions on T 2 weighted images of MRI were studied. In the group with gait disturbance only, the incidences of widening of the ventricular system and periventricular hyperintensity (PVH) around the frontal horn were significantly high compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.005; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by anterior cerebral artery. In the group with pseudobulbar palsy only, the incidences of PVH around the posterior part of the lateral ventricle and hyperintensity area of the basal ganglion region were significantly high as compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.05; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by middle cerebral artery. (author)

  13. A comparative study of symptoms in multiple lacunar state and MRI findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shibata, Youichi (Saint Marianna Univ., Kawasaki (Japan). School of Medicine)

    1993-10-01

    A multiple lacunar state is considered to cause gait disturbance, pseudobulbar palsy, or silent stroke. In the present study, these symptoms is multiple lacunar state and the incidences of abnormal findings on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were investigated comparatively. Thirty-eight patients (23 males and 15 females; average age 73.6 y.o.) with ischemic cerebral lesions on T[sub 2] weighted images of MRI were studied. In the group with gait disturbance only, the incidences of widening of the ventricular system and periventricular hyperintensity (PVH) around the frontal horn were significantly high compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.005; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by anterior cerebral artery. In the group with pseudobulbar palsy only, the incidences of PVH around the posterior part of the lateral ventricle and hyperintensity area of the basal ganglion region were significantly high as compared with the group with silent stroke (p<0.01, p<0.05; respectively), and hyperintensity area of the semioval center were demonstrated prominently in the regions perfused by middle cerebral artery. (author).

  14. Comparing Interval Management Control Laws for Steady-State Errors and String Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Lesley A.; Swieringa, Kurt A.

    2018-01-01

    Interval Management (IM) is a future airborne spacing concept that leverages avionics to provide speed guidance to an aircraft to achieve and maintain a specified spacing interval from another aircraft. The design of a speed control law to achieve the spacing goal is a key aspect in the research and development of the IM concept. In this paper, two control laws that are used in much of the contemporary IM research are analyzed and compared to characterize steady-state errors and string stability. Numerical results are used to illustrate how the choice of control laws gains impacts the size of steady-state errors and string performance and the potential trade-offs between those performance characteristics.

  15. Current state of copper stabilizers and methodology towards calculating risk

    CERN Document Server

    Koratzinos, M

    2011-01-01

    The talk will start by reviewing the landscape: a brief mention of the results of the warm copper stabilizer measurements and the results of the splice measurements at cold will be shown. The preliminary results of the recent RRR measurements will then be presented. Then, together with the limits presented from talk no. 2, the probability of an incident will be presented for beam energies between 3.5 and 5TeV. The available methods at our disposal for addressing the limiting factors and operating at a higher energy will then be reviewed: a complete circuit qualification method coined the Thermal Amplifier can define the maximum safe energy of the LHC in case of a quench next to a defective joint. Ways of avoiding magnet quenches, another critical element of the analysis, for instance by optimizing BLM settings will then be shown. Finally, a proposal of a strategy for running at the highest possible energy compatible with a pre-defined level of risk will be presented. As a case study, the method will also be a...

  16. Comparing Teachers' Views on Morality and Moral Education, a Comparative Study in Turkey and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    LePage, Pamela; Akar, Hanife; Temli, Yeliz; Sen, Derya; Hasser, Neil; Ivins, Ilene

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the researchers examined how K-8 teachers approach morality, moral education, and the moral development of children in Turkey and in the United States. Both countries have diverse cultures and long histories with secular education systems. Surveys were sent to teachers in nine cities in both countries. Results suggest that Turkish…

  17. Comparing Generic Drug Markets in Europe and the United States: Prices, Volumes, and Spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouters, Olivier J; Kanavos, Panos G; McKEE, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Policy Points: Our study indicates that there are opportunities for cost savings in generic drug markets in Europe and the United States. Regulators should make it easier for generic drugs to reach the market. Regulators and payers should apply measures to stimulate price competition among generic drugmakers and to increase generic drug use. To meaningfully evaluate policy options, it is important to analyze historical context and understand why similar initiatives failed previously. Rising drug prices are putting pressure on health care budgets. Policymakers are assessing how they can save money through generic drugs. We compared generic drug prices and market shares in 13 European countries, using data from 2013, to assess the amount of variation that exists between countries. To place these results in context, we reviewed evidence from recent studies on the prices and use of generics in Europe and the United States. We also surveyed peer-reviewed studies, gray literature, and books published since 2000 to (1) outline existing generic drug policies in European countries and the United States; (2) identify ways to increase generic drug use and to promote price competition among generic drug companies; and (3) explore barriers to implementing reform of generic drug policies, using a historical example from the United States as a case study. The prices and market shares of generics vary widely across Europe. For example, prices charged by manufacturers in Switzerland are, on average, more than 2.5 times those in Germany and more than 6 times those in the United Kingdom, based on the results of a commonly used price index. The proportion of prescriptions filled with generics ranges from 17% in Switzerland to 83% in the United Kingdom. By comparison, the United States has historically had low generic drug prices and high rates of generic drug use (84% in 2013), but has in recent years experienced sharp price increases for some off-patent products. There are policy

  18. Hospice utilization of Medicare beneficiaries in Hawai‘i compared to other states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Taira

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective is to examine hospice utilization among Medicare beneficiaries in Hawai‘i compared to other states. Data were from the 2014 Medicare Hospice Utilization and Payment Public Use File, which included information on 4,025 hospice providers, more than 1.3 million hospice beneficiaries, and over $15 billion in Medicare payments. Multivariable linear regression models were estimated to compare hospice utilization in Hawai‘i to that of other states. Control variables included age, gender, and type of Medicare coverage. Medicare beneficiaries using hospice in Hawai‘i differed significantly from beneficiaries in other states in several ways. Hawai‘i beneficiaries were more likely to be Asian (57% vs. 1%, p < .001 and “other race” (10% vs. 0.1%, p < .001, and less likely to be White (28% vs. 84%, p < .001. Hawai‘i beneficiaries were also more likely to have Medicare Advantage (55% vs. 30%, p = .05. Regarding primary diagnoses, hospice users in Hawai‘i were significantly more likely to have a primary diagnosis of stroke (11% vs. 8%, p = .03 and less likely to have respiratory disease (5% vs. 11%, p = .003. In addition, hospice users in Hawai‘i were more likely to use services in their homes (74% vs. 52%, p = .03. Hawai‘i hospice users were also less likely to die while in hospice (42% vs. 47%, p = .002. Characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries in Hawai‘i differ from those in other states, regarding demographic characteristics, type of coverage, primary diagnoses, likelihood of using services in their homes, and death rates. Further research is needed to better understand factors affecting these differences and whether these differences warrant changes in policy or practice.

  19. Climate Change, State Stability, and Political Risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-30

    www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA552760.pdf. iii P.P. Hearn Jr. et al., “Global GIS Database; Digital Atlas of Africa,” USGS Numbered Series, Data...Series, (2001), http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ds62B. iv U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, “USGS Digital ...Retrenchment and the Exercise of Citizenship in Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 44, 9 (2011): 1238-1266; Jennifer N. Brass, “Blurring Boundaries

  20. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN CENTRALIZED AND STATE-WISE TOURISM CAMPAIGNS IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunaina AHUJA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose is to distinguish the initiatives taken by the state authorities and Central authorities to promote tourism in India. Gaps in the centralized promotional campaign, "Incredible India" are identified in this study. The methodology includes collection of secondary data and discursive analysis. Information relevance, Promotion strategy, and Key events and places were used for the comparative analysis for the purposes of the research paper. Above mentioned three factors need to be added to the centralized campaign, to give a holistic picture of India. The paper is unique as it is the first time that identification of gaps in the centralized campaign is done.

  1. Comparative Study of Entanglement and Wigner Function for Multi-Qubit GHZ-Squeezed State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siyouri, Fatima-Zahra

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we address the possibility of using the Wigner function to capture the quantum entanglement present in a multi-qubit system. For that purpose, we calculate both the degree of entanglement and the Wigner function for mixed tripartite squeezed states of Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) type then we compare their behaviors. We show that the role of Wigner function in detecting and quantifying bipartite quantum correlation [Int. J. Mod. Phys. B 30 (2016) 1650187] may be generalized to the multipartite case.

  2. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  3. Investigating the Failure of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs of an Emerging Economy: A Comparative Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajib Salah Uddin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the failure and aftermath of state owned enterprises (SOEs of an emerging economy, Bangladesh. Failure of SOEs of emerging economy has been investigated by many researchers during the last few decades. This study is an extension of previous research. Through the comparative case study, this study tries to explore the scenario of failure of SOEs, the causal factors of failure, remedial actions and aftermath in SOEs. The findings indicate that different authorities from the policy maker to the operating level employees cannot avoid the responsibilities for failure. Even proper restructuring within the ownership of government can drive the firm positively. It is expected that the comparative case study will help to make the decision for the concerned authorities of Bangladesh as well as the authorities of other countries of the world who are in the same position.

  4. COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT -A THEORETICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cican Simona-Iulia

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The complexity, volatility and unpredictability of the current economic environment are a daily reminder that organizations face many risks. The traditional approach, according to which risk is a necessary evil which must be removed, is no longer sufficient and that is why companies nowadays are forced to spend significant resources to manage risks. Risk transparency is what one looks for; therefore, identification and management of risks within an organization become increasingly necessary for success and longevity. Risk approach has a major role in a company’s ability to avoid, reduce and turn risks into opportunities. Enterprise risk management is a new concept that revolutionizes the traditional approach and summarizes risk management in an integrated, comprehensive and strategic system. Studies use several synonyms for enterprise risk management such as integrated risk management, holistic risk management, global risk management and strategic risk management. Enterprise risk management implements at the end of the last century a new way to deal with risks: the holistic approach. This risks approach – i.e. interaction of several types of risks which become increasingly threatening and varied and may cause more damage than individual risk – brings forward the need of risk management and raises issues at the highest level of company management. For a proper view on company risks, each individual risk and the possibility of risk interaction must be understood. This is essential to establish a risk classification according to their impact on the company. Traditional approach on risk management, as a management function, is limited to only threats and losses, so relatively few organizations see risks as potential earning-generated opportunities. However, risk management process is not radically changed. Enterprise risk management is an improved version of the traditional risk management, created by expanding its scope. The new risk

  5. Major risks and financial guarantees provided by the State in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brassard, Guy

    2012-01-01

    France's system for indemnifying damage from natural catastrophe is exemplary, whether for floods, storms, or subsidence. However, France is not equipped with the financial capacity to deal with the damage resulting from an exceptional disaster, such as an earthquake on the Mediterranean coast, or a nuclear meltdown. Major catastrophes could be a significant risk to the financial stability of the State today, because the State is in fact the ultimate insurer of its citizens and its institutions. It would be wise to built up reserves in order to enhance the financial resources of the State and to provide a uniform guarantee covering major risks, whatever the cause of the damage may be. (author)

  6. Multiple sclerosis risk sharing scheme: two year results of clinical cohort study with historical comparator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggild, Mike; Palace, Jackie; Barton, Pelham; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Bregenzer, Thomas; Dobson, Charles; Gray, Richard

    2009-12-02

    To generate evidence on the longer term cost effectiveness of disease modifying treatments in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Prospective cohort study with historical comparator. Specialist multiple sclerosis clinics in 70 centres in the United Kingdom. Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis who started treatment from May 2002 to April 2005 under the UK risk sharing scheme. Treatment with interferon beta or glatiramer acetate in accordance with guidelines of the UK Association of British Neurologists. Observed utility weighted progression in disability at two years' follow-up assessed on the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) compared with that expected by applying the progression rates in a comparator dataset, modified for patients receiving treatment by multiplying by the hazard ratio derived separately for each disease modifying treatment from the randomised trials. In the primary per protocol analysis, progression in disability was worse than that predicted and worse than that in the untreated comparator dataset ("deviation score" of 113%; excess in mean disability status scale 0.28). In sensitivity analyses, however, the deviation score varied from -72% (using raw baseline disability status scale scores, rather than applying a "no improvement" algorithm) to 156% (imputing missing data for year two from progression rates for year one). It is too early to reach any conclusion about the cost effectiveness of disease modifying treatments from this first interim analysis. Important methodological issues, including the need for additional comparator datasets, the potential bias from missing data, and the impact of the "no improvement" rule, will need to be addressed and long term follow-up of all patients is essential to secure meaningful results. Future analyses of the cohort are likely to be more informative, not least because they will be less sensitive to short term fluctuations in disability.

  7. Does macrolide use confer risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest compared with penicillin V?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertz, Frederik Boetius; Jensen, Aksel; Knudsen, Jenny D

    2018-01-01

    were examined by conditional logistic regression analyses in case-crossover and case-time-control models, using penicillin-V treatment as the comparative reference. From nationwide registries, we identified all OHCAs in Denmark from 2001 to 2010 and use of antibiotics. ETHICS: The present study...... was approved by the Danish Data Protection Agency (Danish Data Protection Agency (ref.no. 2007-58-0015, local ref.no. GEH-2014-017, (I-Suite.nr. 02 735)). PARTICIPANTS: We identified 29 111 patients with an OHCA. Of these, 514 were in macrolide treatment ≤7 days before OHCA and 1237 in penicillin-V treatment....... RESULTS: In the case-crossover analyses, overall macrolide use was not associated with OHCA with penicillin V as negative comparative reference (OR=0.90; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.10). Compared with penicillin-V treatment, specific macrolides were not associated with increased risk of OHCA: roxithromycin (OR=0...

  8. Radon as a medicine. Therapeutic effectiveness, biological mechanism and comparative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deetjen, Peter; Falkenbach, Albrecht; Harder, Dietrich; Joeckel, Hans; Kaul, Alexander; Philipsborn, Henning von

    2014-01-01

    Proofs of the therapeutic efficiency of balneological radon applications administered to patients suffering from rheumatic diseases, investigations into the biological action mechanism associated with the alpha particles emitted by radon and its radioactive daughter products, and the comparative risk assessment of radon treatment and medicinal pain therapy have been the research projects whose results are summarized in this book. Controlled clinical studies, if possible performed as prospective, randomized and placebo-controlled double blind studies, have given evidence that the therapeutic effects of balneological radon applications - long-lasting pain reduction and reduced consumption of medicines compared with controls - are significantly persisting over many post-treatment months. The molecular and cellular mechanism of action underlying these long-lasting therapeutic effects has been identified as the down-regulation of cellular immune responses, initiated by cellular apoptosis sequential to low alpha particle doses and by the subsequent release of anti-inflammatory cytokines. The unwanted side-effects of non-steroidal anti-rheumatic drug treatments have to be compared with the absence of side effects from the balneological radon applications which merely involve radiation doses well below the mean value and the fluctuation width of the annual doses attributable to everybody's natural radiation exposure.

  9. Radon as a medicine. Therapeutic effectiveness, biological mechanism and comparative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deetjen, Peter; Falkenbach, Albrecht; Harder, Dietrich; Joeckel, Hans; Kaul, Alexander; Philipsborn, Henning von

    2014-07-01

    Proofs of the therapeutic efficiency of balneological radon applications administered to patients suffering from rheumatic diseases, investigations into the biological action mechanism associated with the alpha particles emitted by radon and its radioactive daughter products, and the comparative risk assessment of radon treatment and medicinal pain therapy have been the research projects whose results are summarized in this book. Controlled clinical studies, if possible performed as prospective, randomized and placebo-controlled double blind studies, have given evidence that the therapeutic effects of balneological radon applications - long-lasting pain reduction and reduced consumption of medicines compared with controls - are significantly persisting over many post-treatment months. The molecular and cellular mechanism of action underlying these long-lasting therapeutic effects has been identified as the down-regulation of cellular immune responses, initiated by cellular apoptosis sequential to low alpha particle doses and by the subsequent release of anti-inflammatory cytokines. The unwanted side-effects of non-steroidal anti-rheumatic drug treatments have to be compared with the absence of side effects from the balneological radon applications which merely involve radiation doses well below the mean value and the fluctuation width of the annual doses attributable to everybody's natural radiation exposure.

  10. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  11. 78 FR 34323 - Funding Opportunity Title: Risk Management Education in Targeted States (Targeted States Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-07

    ... electronically through rma.agrisk.umn.edu , must be received by close of business (COB) 11:59 p.m. EST. on July... strategic goals is to ensure that its customers are well-informed of risk management solutions available... Event of a Human Pandemic Outbreak (Pandemic Plan). RMA requires that project leaders submit a project...

  12. Using Pipelined XNOR Logic to Reduce SEU Risks in State Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Martin; Zheng, Xin; Katanyoutant, Sunant

    2008-01-01

    Single-event upsets (SEUs) pose great threats to avionic systems state machine control logic, which are frequently used to control sequence of events and to qualify protocols. The risks of SEUs manifest in two ways: (a) the state machine s state information is changed, causing the state machine to unexpectedly transition to another state; (b) due to the asynchronous nature of SEU, the state machine's state registers become metastable, consequently causing any combinational logic associated with the metastable registers to malfunction temporarily. Effect (a) can be mitigated with methods such as triplemodular redundancy (TMR). However, effect (b) cannot be eliminated and can degrade the effectiveness of any mitigation method of effect (a). Although there is no way to completely eliminate the risk of SEU-induced errors, the risk can be made very small by use of a combination of very fast state-machine logic and error-detection logic. Therefore, one goal of two main elements of the present method is to design the fastest state-machine logic circuitry by basing it on the fastest generic state-machine design, which is that of a one-hot state machine. The other of the two main design elements is to design fast error-detection logic circuitry and to optimize it for implementation in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) architecture: In the resulting design, the one-hot state machine is fitted with a multiple-input XNOR gate for detection of illegal states. The XNOR gate is implemented with lookup tables and with pipelines for high speed. In this method, the task of designing all the logic must be performed manually because no currently available logic synthesis software tool can produce optimal solutions of design problems of this type. However, some assistance is provided by a script, written for this purpose in the Python language (an object-oriented interpretive computer language) to automatically generate hardware description language (HDL) code from state

  13. State, market and civil society: Latin American development in comparative perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menno Vellinga

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1980s Latin America made a radical break with the model of development that had been pursued by most countries on the continent for the last fifty years and implemented a new development strategy, defined along neo-liberal lines. These changes have taken place under conditions of increasing globalization, e.g. they had to be realized increasingly within globally defined parameters and structures. The relationship between the state, the market and civil society was redefined. The traditional structures of interest representation of groups and classes, their legitimacy and effectiveness underwent significant changes in many countries. In this article we will explore the nature of these changes and their consequences for state reform and the relation to problems of national development. We will do so in a comparative perspective, including experiences from South East Asia. The debate about the relationship between state, market and civil society has received a new impetus from the 2008 crisis of the international financial system and the widely spread criticism of the workings of the market capitalism that it has generated. For Latin American development the conclusions of this debate and their possible translation into concrete policies are of the utmost importance.

  14. Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppock, David C; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia

    2010-11-15

    The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.

  15. Comparative Emulsifying Properties of Octenyl Succinic Anhydride (OSA-Modified Starch: Granular Form vs Dissolved State.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Matos

    Full Text Available The emulsifying ability of OSA-modified and native starch in the granular form, in the dissolved state and a combination of both was compared. This study aims to understand mixed systems of particles and dissolved starch with respect to what species dominates at droplet interfaces and how stability is affected by addition of one of the species to already formed emulsions. It was possible to create emulsions with OSA-modified starch isolated from Quinoa as sole emulsifier. Similar droplet sizes were obtained with emulsions prepared at 7% (w/w oil content using OSA-modified starch in the granular form or molecularly dissolved but large differences were observed regarding stability. Pickering emulsions kept their droplet size constant after one month while emulsions formulated with OSA-modified starch dissolved exhibited coalescence. All emulsions stabilized combining OSA-modified starch in granular form and in solution showed larger mean droplet sizes with no significant differences with respect to the order of addition. These emulsions were unstable due to coalescence regarding presence of free oil. Similar results were obtained when emulsions were prepared by combining OSA-modified granules with native starch in solution. The degree of surface coverage of starch granules was much lower in presence of starch in solution which indicates that OSA-starch is more surface active in the dissolved state than in granular form, although it led to unstable systems compared to starch granule stabilized Pickering emulsions, which demonstrated to be extremely stable.

  16. Comparative analysis of diabetes self-management education programs in the European Union Member States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sarama; Riemenschneider, Henna; Müller, Gabriele; Levin-Zamir, Diane; Van den Broucke, Stephan; Schwarz, Peter E H

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes self-management education (DSME) is generally considered as an integral part of diabetes care. The availability of different types of self-management in the European Union Member States (EUMS) remains uncertain. The aim of this study is to perform a comparative analysis of existing DSME programs (DSMEP) implemented in EUMS. Unpublished data regarding DSME in the EUMS was assessed with Diabetes Literacy Survey using wiki tool (WT) targeting patients and different stakeholders. An additional literature review (LR) was performed in PubMed to identify published studies regarding DSMEP in the EUMS from 2004 to 2014. A total of 102 DSMEP implemented in EUMS were reported in the WT and 154 programs were identified from the LR. Comparative analysis of the data indicated that a majority of programs are aimed at adults and only a minority at children and elderly. Only a small percentage of the programs utilize information technology for teaching and learning, and only one out of five programs pay attention to depression. The identified DSMEP aimed primarily to empower patients through increasing knowledge and changing attitudes and beliefs towards diabetes. This study provides an overview of the present state-of-the-art on diabetes self-management education programs in the 28 EUMS. To increase participation, existing DSMEP should be made more accessible to the patients as well as tailored to specific patient groups. Copyright © 2017 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Audiology patient fall statistics and risk factors compared to non-audiology patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criter, Robin E; Honaker, Julie A

    2016-10-01

    To compare fall statistics (e.g. incidence, prevalence), fall risks, and characteristics of patients who seek hearing healthcare from an audiologist to individuals who have not sought such services. Case-control study. Two groups of community-dwelling older adult patients: 25 audiology patients aged 60 years or older (M age: 69.2 years, SD: 4.5, range: 61-77) and a control group (gender- and age-matched ±2 years) of 25 non-audiology patients (M age: 69.6, SD: 4.7, range: 60-77). Annual incidence of falls (most recent 12 months) was higher in audiology patients (68.0%) than non-audiology patients (28.0%; p = .005). Audiology patients reported a higher incidence of multiple recent falls (p =.025) and more chronic health conditions (p = .028) than non-audiology patients. Significantly more audiology patients fall on an annual basis than non-audiology patients, suggesting that falls are a pervasive issue in general hearing clinics. Further action on the part of healthcare professionals providing audiologic services may be necessary to identify individuals at risk for falling.

  18. The index of harm: a useful measure for comparing occupational risk across industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Abraham, S.C.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents an index of harm methodology which compares occupational risk among workers exposed to radiological and nonradiological harms. It extends the work of the International Commission on Radiological Protection by considering American rather than European and Japanese industry groups, by treating the relative importance of various occupational harms as a parameter rather than an arbitrary constant, and by identifying several ways in which both the methodology and the data base could be improved. In the analysis, the risk affects are examined of six occupational harms-three nonradiological (death, accidental injury and disease or illness) and three radiological (somatic effects, genetic effects, and somatic effects to the fetus or embryo of pregnant women). The analysis was performed under five different assumptions about the relative importance of degree of aversion of the six harms in question. The results of this analysis show that radiological workers exposed to the current industry average of 0.35 rem/yr are among the safest of all industry groupings, and the riskiest industries appear to be mining; agriculture, fishing and farming; construction; transportation; and manufacturing, roughly in that order. (author)

  19. Risk factors related to suicidal ideation and attempted suicide: comparative study of Korean and American youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Sung Suk; Joung, Kyoung Hwa

    2012-12-01

    Suicidal trends and related characteristics such as sociodemographic factors, psychological factors, and health behaviors can differ between countries. This study investigated the predictors of suicidal ideation and attempted suicide including health behaviors among American and Korean youth from two national representative data sets. In both countries, depression was the most predominant predictor to suicidal ideation and attempted suicide. Unique predictors of suicidal youth in each country were also found. In America, attempted suicide was predicted by poor body image, whereas in Korea attempted suicide was predicted by medical diagnosis such as asthma, concern about weight, and alcohol consumption. The value of our approach lies in the comparative analysis of analogous and unique characteristics of suicidal youths in these two huge data sets from different countries. These results should be helpful for school and mental health care providers to plan interventions for youth at risk of suicide to prevent suicidal completion in these nations.

  20. Accounting for competing risks is essential in comparing surgery and radiation treatment of prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Fowble, Barbara L.; Hanks, Gerald E.

    1997-01-01

    Background: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) product-limit method is frequently used incorrectly to estimate non-survival outcome measures in the medical literature. This method is based on the assumption that all censored patients will eventually fail, and therefore overestimates the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks. The higher the percentage of patients failing from extraneous (intercurrent death) causes prior to the occurrence of interest (biochemical failure), the larger the bias in the probability of failure. Cumulative incidence (CI) estimation is an alternative method that accommodates for patients who die of intercurrent disease prior to experiencing the event of interest. Although the erroneous application of the KM method has been previously reported, statisticians and clinicians continue to use it to estimate non-survival outcome measures for comparison purposes. Comparing KM results across treatment series with differing distributions of competing risks, as is true for radiation and prostatectomy patients, could easily lead to erroneous conclusions. We illustrate this problem by comparing biochemical control rates for men treated for prostate cancer obtained by KM and CI methods in two age cohorts. Methods and Materials: We report overall biochemical control (bNED) rates for 614 men treated for localized prostate cancer with radiotherapy alone between 11/85 and 11/94. Mean and median follow-up is 46 and 43 mos (2 to 133 mos) and mean and median age is 70 years (46 to 89 years). Because older patients are more likely to die of non-prostate cancer causes prior to biochemical failure than younger patients (14% versus 8%), KM failure rates are compared to CI failure rates for younger (≤65 years) and older men (>65 years). Standard errors for the KM estimates are based on Greenwood's formula and those for CI estimates are based on the delta method. Results: Overall bNED control rates for younger men at five years are 57% using KM's method and

  1. Comparative quantification of alcohol exposure as risk factor for global burden of disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehm, Jürgen; Klotsche, Jens; Patra, Jayadeep

    2007-01-01

    Alcohol has been identified as one of the most important risk factors in the burden experienced as a result of disease. The objective of the present contribution is to establish a framework to comparatively quantify alcohol exposure as it is relevant for burden of disease. Different key indicators are combined to derive this quantification. First, adult per capita consumption, composed of recorded and unrecorded consumption, yields the best overall estimate of alcohol exposure for a country or region. Second, survey information is used to allocate the per capita consumption into sex and age groups. Third, an index for detrimental patterns of drinking is used to determine the additional impact on injury and cardiovascular burden. The methodology is applied to estimate global alcohol exposure for the year 2002. Finally, assumptions and potential problems of the approach are discussed. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURES IN THE ROMANIAN REGIONS AND COUNTIES AND THE EU MEMBER STATES. COMPARATIVE ANALYSES.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marioara, IORDAN

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Bridging the gap between countries, and thus decresing poverty, is the greatest challenge of European countries in the context of the European social cohesion. The risk of future economic difficulties caused by the size of budget deficits is beared by the funds to be allocated to social inclusion in the EU and the EU member countries. They will be concerned in the post-crisis period with aligning the requirements of progress, of poverty reduction, but also of ensuring the sustainability of public finances. For Romania, cohesion is particularly important as most regions show significant differences as compared to the EU average and the national average. This group also includes the South Muntenia Region, which has many advantages for faster progress and to be able to exploit the opportunities offered by the implementation of the Europe 2020 strategy.

  3. Comparative overview of dangers, protective measures and risks for the final disposal of radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to present an overview of the anticipated risks of geological disposal of radioactive wastes and to compare these to 'conventional' risks, which voluntarily or involuntarily are associated with human activities and have accompanied mankind for long times. Radioactive wastes which result from the generation of electricity by commercial nuclear reactors as well as those originating from research, industrial and medical applications necessitate prolonged isolation from the biosphere to their long-lived, although decaying, toxicity. Chapter 2 of this report contains a survey of the nature and extent of the potential hazard of radioactive waste, drawing attention to the fact that the toxicity of radionuclides is comparable to that of nonradioactive chemical compounds. The possibility of adverse effects on the public cannot be ruled out for either kind of waste. Current plans aim at the safe and effective disposal of radioactive wastes in deep and stable geological formations which should serve as hosts for engineered final repositories. For a final repository to be suitable, the site chosen should be free from circulating groundwater or the free movement of the groundwater must be strongly restricted. In order to prevent radioactive substances migrating away from the final repository in which they have been placed, it is planned to utilise natural and man-made barriers which function largely independently from each other. Thorough knowledge of the properties of man-made barriers, is as important as knowledge of the natural barriers, which are determined by the geology and hydrogeology of the site of the final repository. This principle of protection is known as a 'multiple-barrier concept' and is considered capable of providing safe disposal of radioactive wastes

  4. Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, D.

    1986-04-01

    Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)

  5. [C-section rate in low-risk women: a useful indicator to compare hospitals attending deliveries with different risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Librero, Julián; Peiró, Salvador; Belda, Ana; Calabuig, Julia

    2014-01-01

    the C-section rate has been criticized as a performance indicator for not considering that different hospitals manage deliveries with diverse risks. In this work we explore the characteristics of a new indicator restricted to low C-section risk deliveries. retrospective cohort of all births (n=214,611) in all public hospitals during 2005-2010 in the Valencia Region, Spain (source: minimum basic dataset). A low-risk subpopulation consisting of women under-35, no history of c-section, between 37 and 41 gestational weeks, and with a single fetus, with cephalic presentation and normal weight (2500-3999 g) was constructed. We analyzed variability in the new indicator, its correlation with the crude indicator and, using multilevel logistic regression models, the presence of residual risks. a total of 117 589 births (58.4% of the whole deliveries) were identified as low C-section risk. The c-section rate in these women was 11.9% (24.4% for all deliveries) ranging between hospitals from 7.0% to 28.9%. The c-section rate in low-risk and total deliveries correlated strongly (r=0.88). The remaining risks in the population of low risk did not alter the hospital effect on the c-section rate. the percentage of C-section in low risk women include a high volume of deliveries, correlated with the crude indicator and residual risks are not differentially influenced by hospitals, being a useful indicator for monitoring the quality of obstetric care in the National Health System.

  6. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive material within the state of Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, C.; Oberg, S.G.; Downs, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The State of Idaho and the U.S. DOE have agreed to a one year pilot program to review and analyze DOE's off-site transportation of radioactive materials within Idaho on a shipping-campaign basis. As a part of that effort, the State of Idaho INEL Oversight Program conducts independent transportation risk assessments. These risk assessments are performed for both highway and railroad shipments using the computer codes RADTRAN4 ,and RISKIND 1.11. Some input parameters are customized with. Idaho-specific data, such as population density, accident rates and meteorological data. The dose and risk (to the public, handlers, crew, etc.) are estimated for both incident free and accident scenarios. Source term files are being built for past, current, and future shipments in Idaho. These include transuranic waste. shipments to WIPP, low level waste, mixed waste, spent fuel, and high level waste. Each shipment is analyzed for two types of transportation route segments: county segments and ten-mile segments. Risk estimation for each county segment provides information for allocation of emergency preparedness resources. Risk estimation for each ten-mile segment helps to identify higher risk segments. The dose and risk results are presented in appropriate formats for various audiences. The quantitative risk measures are used to guide appropriate levels of emergency preparedness. GIS tools are being used to graphically present risk information to elected officials and to the general public

  7. Prevalence and risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in the State of Bahia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Bahiense

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available An epidemiological study was carried out in order to characterize the bovine tuberculosis situation and to support the planning and implementation of the National Program for the Control and Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis in the State of Bahia, owing to the importance of the disease in causing economic burdens and its impact on public health. The State was divided into four regions. In each region, properties were randomly chosen and, a pre-established number of animals was also randomly selected; these animals then subjected to the intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin diagnostic test. Animals with inconclusive test results were retested with the same diagnostic procedure within a minimum interval of 60 days. Within each sampled property, a questionnaire was administered to verify possible risk factors for the disease. In the State, the prevalence of infected herds was 1.6% [1.0–2.6] and that of infected animals 0,21% [0,07; 0,60]. In the regions, the prevalence of infected herds and infected animals were, respectively, 2,0% [1,0; 4,2%] and 2,0% [1,0; 4,2%] in region 1; , 2,9% [1,5; 5,5] and 0,66% [0,20; 2,16] in region 2; 0,3% [0,04; 2,1] and 0,02% [0,002; 0,12] in region 3; and 0,6% [0,2; 2,5] and 0,05% [0,01; 0,20] in region 4. The risk factors associated with tuberculosis infection were dairy farm (odds ratio [OR] = 9.72 or mixed farm (OR = 6.66, and size of herd ? 18 cows ? 24 months of age (OR = 8.44. In conclusion, it is recommended that the State of Bahia implement a surveillance system for the detection of herds with bovine tuberculosis to certifying them in free herds, with special attention to dairy properties, and develop a solid program of health education so that producers test animals for bovine tuberculosis before introducing them into their herds.

  8. Widening the understanding of risk approaches by comparing definitions from different disciplines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Wiedemann, Peter; Adam, Balazs

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this chapter is to critically reflect definitions of hazard, risk, and risk per-ception, and their assessments used in different scientific disciplines and give ex-amples of the potential implications for scientific discussions, knowledge manage-ment, and risk communication. Scientists...... with backgrounds in public health, psy-chology, environmental health, occupational health, engineering, sociology and medicine were asked for a definition of hazard, risk, risk assessment and risk per-ception seen from their specific scientific disciplines. Hazard is generally seen as an adverse event or condition....... For most risk definitions, probability and severity are important aspects. Often a quantification of risk is desired, whereas risk perception is seen as a subjective appraisal and a cognitive construct. As risk perceptions are based on a combination of knowledge and individual values and affects, it may...

  9. Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

    2017-12-01

    Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be

  10. Geographical information system and predictive risk maps of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solarin Adewale RT

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The control of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria remains inert due to lack of reliable data on the geographical distribution of the disease and the population at risk. To help in developing a control programme, delineating areas of risk, geographical information system and remotely sensed environmental images were used to developed predictive risk maps of the probability of occurrence of the disease and quantify the risk for infection in Ogun State, Nigeria. Methods Infection data used were derived from carefully validated morbidity questionnaires among primary school children in 2001–2002, in which school children were asked among other questions if they have experienced "blood in urine" or urinary schistosomiasis. The infection data from 1,092 schools together with remotely sensed environmental data such as rainfall, vegetation, temperature, soil-types, altitude and land cover were analysis using binary logistic regression models to identify environmental features that influence the spatial distribution of the disease. The final regression equations were then used in Arc View 3.2a GIS software to generate predictive risk maps of the distribution of the disease and population at risk in the state. Results Logistic regression analysis shows that the only significant environmental variable in predicting the presence and absence of urinary schistosomiasis in any area of the State was Land Surface Temperature (LST (B = 0.308, p = 0.013. While LST (B = -0.478, p = 0.035, rainfall (B = -0.006, p = 0.0005, ferric luvisols (B = 0.539, p = 0.274, dystric nitosols (B = 0.133, p = 0.769 and pellic vertisols (B = 1.386, p = 0.008 soils types were the final variables in the model for predicting the probability of an area having an infection prevalence equivalent to or more than 50%. The two predictive risk maps suggest that urinary schistosomiasis is widely distributed and occurring in all the Local Government Areas (LGAs

  11. Comparative study on the impact of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation in the western United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1979-06-01

    A comparative study and quantitative assessment of the impacts, costs and benefits associated with the mining, processing and transportation of coal and uranium within the western states, specifically Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming are presented. The western states possess 49% of the US reserve coal base, 67% of the total identified reserves and 82% of the hypothetical reserves. Western coal production has increased at an average annual rate of about 22% since 1970 and should become the major US coal supplier in the 1980's. The Colorado Plateau (in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah) and the Wyoming Basin areas account for 72% of the $15/lb U 3 O 8 resources, 76% of the $30/lb, and 75% of the $50/lb resources. It is apparent that the West will serve as the major supplier of domestic US coal and uranium fuels for at least the next several decades. Impacts considered are: environmental impacts, (land, water, air quality); health effects of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation; risks from transportation accidents; radiological impact of coal and uranium mining; social and economic impacts; and aesthetic impacts (land, air, noise, water, biota, and man-made objects). Economic benefits are discussed

  12. Comparative study on the impact of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation in the western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1979-06-01

    A comparative study and quantitative assessment of the impacts, costs and benefits associated with the mining, processing and transportation of coal and uranium within the western states, specifically Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming are presented. The western states possess 49% of the US reserve coal base, 67% of the total identified reserves and 82% of the hypothetical reserves. Western coal production has increased at an average annual rate of about 22% since 1970 and should become the major US coal supplier in the 1980's. The Colorado Plateau (in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah) and the Wyoming Basin areas account for 72% of the $15/lb U/sub 3/O/sub 8/ resources, 76% of the $30/lb, and 75% of the $50/lb resources. It is apparent that the West will serve as the major supplier of domestic US coal and uranium fuels for at least the next several decades. Impacts considered are: environmental impacts, (land, water, air quality); health effects of coal and uranium mining, processing, and transportation; risks from transportation accidents; radiological impact of coal and uranium mining; social and economic impacts; and aesthetic impacts (land, air, noise, water, biota, and man-made objects). Economic benefits are discussed.

  13. REDUCTION OF SYSTEMIC RISK IN SERBIA THROUGH INTELLIGENT RISK MANAGEMENT IN STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES

    OpenAIRE

    Dragan Đuričin; Iva Vuksanović

    2012-01-01

    These days, the effects of the combined crisis in Serbia have been larger than ever. Serbia was already in a transitional recession when it entered global economic crisis of 2008. The global double dip recession and this domestic recession, caused by structural imbalances before and during the transition, exacerbate each other's negative effects. Consequently, companies find themselves exposed to systemic (or external) risk that is beyond their control, and is continually increasing. The curr...

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Augusto Dias

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A cross sectional study was carried out between May and November 2011 to investigate the epidemiological situation of bovine tuberculosis (bTB in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The state was divided into seven regions. Three hundred farms from each region, with reproductive activity, were randomly chosen and included as primary sample units. A fixed number of bovine females, older than 2 years of age, were randomly selected and tested, using the comparative cervical tuberculin test. An epidemiological questionnaire based survey was conducted in the selected farms. Our results show that in the state of São Paulo, the apparent prevalence of positive farms was 9% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 7.8 – 10.5%. The prevalence in the individual regions varied between 3.5% (95% CI = 1.7 ? 6.8% and 13.9% (95% CI = 10.2 – 18.8%. The apparent prevalence of positive animals in the state was 1.3% (95% CI = 0.9 – 1.7% and varied from 0.3% (95% CI = 0.2 – 0.6% to 2.5% (95% CI = 1.4 – 4.5% in the regions. The risk factors associated with tuberculosis in the state were (i number of adult females in a herd is ? 24 (Odds ratio, OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.32 – 2.75, (ii type of farm enterprise (dairy: OR = 2.70, 95% CI = 1.40 – 5.21; mixed: OR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.08 – 3.82, (iii milking process (milking parlor: OR = 4.12, 95% CI = 1.46 – 11.64; portable milking machine: OR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.42 – 6.09, and (iv pasture sharing (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.07 – 2.33. The state of São Paulo should implement a structured surveillance system to detect and mitigate the disease. Further, an efficient animal health education program, which encourages the farmers to test replacement animals for bTB prior to introduction in their herds and to avoid pasture sharing with farms of unknown sanitary conditions should also be implemented.

  15. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  16. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  17. Comparing and characterizing transient and steady-state tests of the peripheral chemoreflex in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfoh, Jamie R; Tymko, Michael M; Abrosimova, Maria; Boulet, Lindsey M; Foster, Glen E; Bain, Anthony R; Ainslie, Philip N; Steinback, Craig D; Bruce, Christina D; Day, Trevor A

    2016-03-01

    What is the central question of this study? We aimed to characterize the cardiorespiratory and cerebrovascular responses to transient and steady-state tests of the peripheral chemoreflex and to compare the hypoxic ventilatory responses (HVRs) between these tests. What is the main finding and its importance? The cardiovascular and cerebrovascular responses to transient tests were small in magnitude and short in duration. The steady-state isocapnic hypoxia test elicited a larger HVR than the transient 100% N(2) test, but the response magnitudes were correlated within individuals. The transient test of the HVR elicits fewer systemic effects than steady-state techniques and may have greater experimental utility than previously appreciated. Carotid chemoreceptors detect changes in arterial PO(2) and PCO(2), eliciting a peripheral chemoreflex (PCR). Steady-state (SS) hypoxia tests using dynamic end-tidal forcing (DEF) have been used to assess the hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) but may be confounded by concomitant systemic effects. Transient tests of the PCR have also been developed but are not widely used, nor have the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular responses been characterized. We characterized the cardiorespiratory and cerebrovascular responses to transient tests of the PCR and compared the HVR between transient and SS-DEF tests. We hypothesized that the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular responses to the transient tests would be minimal and that the respiratory responses elicited from the transient and SS-DEF tests would be different in magnitude and not well correlated within individuals. Participants underwent five consecutive trials of two transient tests [three-breath 100% N(2) (TT-N(2)) and a single-breath 13% CO(2), in air] and two 10 min SS-DEF tests [isocapnic (SS-ISO) and poikilocapnic (SS-POI) hypoxia]. In response to the transient tests, heart rate, mean arterial pressure and the middle and posterior cerebral artery blood velocity increased (all P

  18. Does Stigmatized Social Risk Lead to Denialism? Results from a Survey Experiment on Race, Risk Perception, and Health Policy in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yarrow Dunham

    Full Text Available In this article, we report findings from an original survey experiment investigating the effects of different framings of disease threats on individual risk perceptions and policy priorities. We analyze responses from 1,946 white and African-American participants in a self-administered, web-based survey in the United States. We sought to investigate the effects of: 1 frames emphasizing disparities in the racial prevalence of disease and 2 frames emphasizing non-normative (blameworthy or stigmatized behavioral risk factors. We find some evidence that when treated with the first frame, African-Americans are more likely to report higher risk of infection (compared to an African-American control group and to whites receiving the same treatment; and that whites are more likely to report trust in government data (compared to a White control group and to African-Americans receiving the same treatment. Notwithstanding, we find no support for our hypotheses concerning the interactive effects of providing both frames, which was a central motivation for our study. We argue that this may be due to very large differences in risk perception at baseline (which generate limits on possible treatment effects and the fact that in the context of American race relations, it may not be possible to fully differentiate racialized and stigmatized frames.

  19. Risk of oral tongue cancer among immunocompromised transplant recipients and human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tota, Joseph E; Engels, Eric A; Madeleine, Margaret M; Clarke, Christina A; Lynch, Charles F; Ortiz, Ana P; Hernandez, Brenda Y; Chaturvedi, Anil K

    2018-04-12

    Oral tongue cancer incidence has increased among whites in the United States; however, the cause remains unknown. If an infectious agent is implicated, then elevated risk would be expected among immunosuppressed individuals. By using population-based registry linkage information from the US Transplant Cancer Match and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) Cancer Match studies, the authors examined the risk of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among immunocompromised transplantation recipients and HIV-infected individuals. In addition, the risks of oropharyngeal SCC (strongly related to human papillomavirus infection; modestly affected by immunosuppression), other tobacco/alcohol-related oral cavity SCCs (not thought to be infection/immunosuppression-related), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma of oral cavity/pharynx (strongly related to Epstein-Barr virus; profoundly affected by immunosuppression) were evaluated. Compared with the general population, the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was strongly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] > 8.0). The risk of all SCCs was modestly and similarly elevated among transplantation recipients (SIR range, 2.2-2.7; P heterogeneity  = .2); whereas, among HIV-infected individuals, the risk of oral tongue SCC was higher compared with the risk of other SCCs (SIR, 3.0 vs 1.7 [for oropharyngeal SCCs] and 2.3 [for other oral cavity SCCs]; P heterogeneity  risk of SCCs was significantly higher among men, older individuals, and whites; and risk increased with the time since transplantation/AIDS onset. The risk of oral tongue SCC was significantly higher among HIV-infected men who have sex with men compared with the average risk in HIV-infected individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0). Similar modest increases in the risk of oral tongue and other oral cavity SCCs do not suggest that an infectious agent or exposure profoundly affected by immunosuppression underlies the

  20. A multi-attribute Systemic Risk Index for comparing and prioritizing chemical industrial areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Sörensen, K.; Dullaert, W.

    2012-01-01

    Measures taken to decrease interdependent risks within chemical industrial areas should be based on quantitative data from a holistic (cluster-based) point of view. Therefore, this paper examines the typology of networks representing industrial areas to formulate recommendations to more effectively protect a chemical cluster against existing systemic risks. Chemical industrial areas are modeled as two distinct complex networks and are prioritized by computing two sub-indices with respect to existing systemic safety and security risks (using Domino Danger Units) and supply chain risks (using units from an ordinal expert scale). Subsequently, a Systemic Risk Index for the industrial area is determined employing the Borda algorithm, whereby the systemic risk index considers both a safety and security network risk index and a supply chain network risk index. The developed method allows decreasing systemic risks within chemical industrial areas from a holistic (inter-organizational and/or inter-cluster) perspective. An illustrative example is given.

  1. Systematic risk and liquidity : an empirical study comparing Norwegian equity certificates before and after the regulation in 2009

    OpenAIRE

    Hatlevik, Håkon; Einvik, Christian

    2014-01-01

    In 2009, the Norwegian savings banks industry was subject to a regulation change, which resulted in a modification of the instrument issued by these banks. Thus, in this empirical study we compare the systematic risk and liquidity of equity certificates issued by Norwegian savings banks before and after the regulation change. We go about estimating systematic risk and liquidity using regression analysis. In order to estimate systematic risk we use the empirical model of the CAPM often referre...

  2. Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Wolter, Peter T.

    2012-01-01

    Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more “big pines” (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction

  3. Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

    2009-01-01

    to higher-risk categories than SCORE (P smokers. However, ESH risk chart agreed with ESC guidelines for antihypertensive treatment using SCORE in 89% (634/713) of the patients recommended treatment and produced...... similar sensitivities (79 vs. 79%), specificities (46 vs. 50%), positive (14 vs. 15%) and negative (95 vs. 96%) predictive values for CEP. CONCLUSION: Although SCORE did not use subclinical organ damage, the guidelines by ESH and ESC using SCORE recommended antihypertensive treatment in almost the same...

  4. Identifying Military and Combat Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    separation and the potentially destabilizing impact of deployment on the remaining caregiver and daily routines. The project entails the assessment of...milestones, and; 2) examine the role of spousal-perceived Service Member risk on caregiver behaviors associated with parental deployment in the prediction...n/a INTRODUCTION There is an emerging consensus that parental combat deployment may increase risk for child development; but details on what the

  5. Personality disorder is an excess risk factor for physical multimorbidity among women with mental state disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quirk, Shae E; Stuart, Amanda L; Berk, Michael; Pasco, Julie A; Brennan Olsen, Sharon L; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Honkanen, Risto; Lukkala, Pyry S; Chanen, Andrew M; Kotowicz, Mark; Williams, Lana J

    2017-11-01

    We examined whether mental state disorders (lifetime mood, anxiety, eating, substance misuse) with comorbid personality disorder are associated with physical multimorbidity in a population-based sample of women. Mental state and personality disorders were assessed using semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Clinical measures were performed and medical conditions, medication use and lifestyle factors were documented by questionnaire. Mental state disorders were associated with higher odds of physical multimorbidity; risk was especially high for those with comorbid personality disorder. These findings suggest that mental state and physical comorbidity might be worsened by the additional comorbidity of personality disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Classification of fMRI resting-state maps using machine learning techniques: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Ioannis; Siettos, Constantinos

    2017-11-01

    We compare the efficiency of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and nonlinear learning manifold algorithms (ISOMAP and Diffusion maps) for classifying brain maps between groups of schizophrenia patients and healthy from fMRI scans during a resting-state experiment. After a standard pre-processing pipeline, we applied spatial Independent component analysis (ICA) to reduce (a) noise and (b) spatial-temporal dimensionality of fMRI maps. On the cross-correlation matrix of the ICA components, we applied PCA, ISOMAP and Diffusion Maps to find an embedded low-dimensional space. Finally, support-vector-machines (SVM) and k-NN algorithms were used to evaluate the performance of the algorithms in classifying between the two groups.

  7. A Comparative Study of New Aspergillus Strains for Proteolytic Enzymes Production by Solid State Fermentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gastón Ezequiel Ortiz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of the proteolytic enzymes production using twelve Aspergillus strains previously unused for this purpose was performed by solid state fermentation. A semiquantitative and quantitative evaluation of proteolytic activity were carried out using crude enzymatic extracts obtained from the fermentation cultures, finding seven strains with high and intermediate level of protease activity. Biochemical, thermodynamics, and kinetics features such as optimum pH and temperature values, thermal stability, activation energy (Ea, quotient energy (Q10, Km, and Vmax were studied in four enzymatic extracts from the selected strains that showed the highest productivity. Additionally, these strains were evaluated by zymogram analysis obtaining protease profiles with a wide range of molecular weight for each sample. From these four strains with the highest productivity, the proteolytic extract of A. sojae ATCC 20235 was shown to be an appropriate biocatalyst for hydrolysis of casein and gelatin substrates, increasing its antioxidant activities in 35% and 125%, respectively.

  8. Direct diode lasers with comparable beam quality to fiber, CO2, and solid state lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Robin K.; Chann, Bien; Burgess, James; Kaiman, Michael; Overman, Robert; Glenn, John D.; Tayebati, Parviz

    2012-03-01

    TeraDiode has produced kW-class ultra-high brightness fiber-coupled direct diode lasers. A fiber-coupled direct diode laser with a power level of 2,040 W from a 50 μm core diameter, 0.15 numerical aperture (NA) output fiber at a single center wavelength was demonstrated. This was achieved with a novel beam combining and shaping technique using COTS diode lasers. The fiber-coupled output corresponds to a Beam Parameter Product (BPP) of 3.75 mm-mrad and is the lowest BPP kW-class direct diode laser yet reported. This laser is suitable for industrial materials processing applications, including sheet metal cutting and welding. This 2-kW fiber-coupled direct diode laser has comparable brightness to that of industrial fiber lasers and CO2 lasers, and is over 10x brighter than state-of-the-art direct diode lasers.

  9. Canadian and United States regulatory models compared: doses from atmospheric pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, S-R.

    1997-01-01

    CANDU reactors sold offshore are licensed primarily to satisfy Canadian Regulations. For radioactive emissions during normal operation, the Canadian Standards Association's CAN/CSA-N288.1-M87 is used. This standard provides guidelines and methodologies for calculating a rate of radionuclide release that exposes a member of the public to the annual dose limit. To calculate doses from air concentrations, either CSA-N288.1 or the Regulatory Guide 1.109 of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which has already been used to license light-water reactors in these countries, may be used. When dose predictions from CSA-N288.1 are compared with those from the U.S. Regulatory Guides, the differences in projected doses raise questions about the predictions. This report explains differences between the two models for ingestion, inhalation, external and immersion doses

  10. A comparative analysis of occupational health and safety risk prevention practices in Sweden and Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morillas, Rosa María; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Fuertes, Alba

    2013-12-01

    Scandinavian countries such as Sweden implemented the occupational health and safety (OHS) measures in the European Directive 89/391/EEC earlier than other European counties, including Spain. In fact, statistics on workplace accident rates reveal that between 2004 and 2009, there were considerably fewer accidents in Sweden than in Spain. The objective of the research described in this paper was to reduce workplace accidents and to improve OHS management in Spain by exploring the OHS practices in Sweden. For this purpose, an exploratory comparative study was conducted, which focused on the effectiveness of the EU directive in both countries. The study included a cross-sectional analysis of workplace accident rates and other contextual indicators in both national contexts. A case study of 14 Swedish and Spanish companies identified 14 differences in the preventive practices implemented. These differences were then assessed with a Delphi study to evaluate their contribution to the reduction of workplace accidents and their potential for improving health and safety management in Spain. The results showed that there was agreement concerning 12 of the 14 practices. Finally, we discuss opportunities of improvement in Spanish companies so that they can make their risk management practices more effective. The findings of this comparative study on the implementation of the European Directive 89/391/EEC in both Sweden and Spain have revealed health and safety managerial practices which, if properly implemented, could contribute to improved work conditions and accident statistics of Spanish companies. In particular, the results suggest that Spanish employers, safety managers, external prevention services, safety deputies and Labour Inspectorates should consider implementing streamlined internal preventive management, promoting the integration of prevention responsibilities to the chain of command, and preventing health and safety management from becoming a mere exchange of

  11. Comparing the New York State Smokers' Quitline Reach, Services Offered, and Quit Outcomes to 44 Other State Quitlines, 2010 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Nathan; Nonnemaker, James; Chapman, LeTonya; Shaikh, Asma; Thompson, Jesse; Juster, Harlan

    2018-06-01

    To summarize the reach, services offered, and cessation outcomes of the New York Quitline and compare with other state quitlines. Descriptive study. Forty-five US states. State-sponsored tobacco cessation quitlines in 45 US states that provided complete data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Quitline Data Warehouse (NQDW) for 24 quarters over 6 years (2010-Q1 through 2015-Q4). Telephone quitlines that offer tobacco use cessation services, including counseling, self-help materials, and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), to smokers at no cost to them. Percentage of adult tobacco users in the state who received counseling and/or free NRT from state quitlines (reach), services offered by state quitlines, and cessation outcomes among quitline clients 7 months after using quitline services. Reach, services offered, and cessation outcomes for the New York Quitline were compared with similar measures for the other 44 state quitlines with complete NQDW data for all quarters from 2010 through 2015. New York's average annual quitline reach from 2010 through 2015 was 3.0% per year compared to 1.1% per year for the other 44 states examined. Although the New York Quitline was open fewer hours per week and offered fewer counseling sessions and a smaller amount of free NRT than most of the other 44 state quitlines, the New York Quitline had similar quit rates to most of those state quitlines.

  12. Comparative proteomic analysis of Listeria monocytogenes exposed to enterocin AS-48 in planktonic and sessile states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caballero Gómez, Natacha; Abriouel, Hikmate; Ennahar, Said; Gálvez, Antonio

    2013-10-15

    Enterocin AS-48 is a cyclic peptide of great interest for application in food preservation and sanitation. In the present study, the proteome response of Listeria monocytogenes to purified enterocin AS-48 was studied under two different conditions: planktonic cells and sessile cells grown on polystyrene plates. Ten different proteins were differentially expressed in planktonic L. monocytogenes cells treated with 0.1 μg/ml enterocin AS-48 compared to the untreated controls. Overexpressed proteins were related to stress response (DnaK) or carbohydrate transport and metabolism, while underexpressed and unexpressed proteins were related to metabolism (such as glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase, pyruvate oxidase, glutamate dehydrogenase or glutamate decarboxylase) or stress (GroEL). In the sessile state, L. monocytogenes cells tolerated up to 10 μg/ml bacteriocin, and the treated biofilm cells overexpressed a set of 11 proteins, some of which could be related to stress response (DnaK, GroEL), protein synthesis and carbohydrate metabolism, while glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase was the only unexpressed protein. Some of the overexpressed proteins (such as elongation factor Tu and GroEL) could also be implicated in cell adhesion. These results suggest different cell responses of L. monocytogenes to enterocin AS-48 in the planktonic and in the sessile state, including stress response and cell metabolism proteins. While in the planktonic state the bacterium may tend to compensate for the cytoplasmic cell permeability changes induced by AS-48 by reinforcing carbohydrate transport and metabolism, sessile cells seem to respond by shifting carbohydrate metabolism and reinforcing protein synthesis. Stress response proteins also seem to be important in the response to AS-48, but the stress response seems to be different in planktonic and in sessile cells. © 2013.

  13. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVE STATE ANXIETY AMONG TEAM SPORT AND INDIVIDUAL SPORT ATHLETES IN IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soltani Hossein

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: With respect to the fact that every sport field has its own special nature, the aim of present study was to compare competitive state anxiety among team sport and individual sport athletes in Iran. Material: The statistic sample included 120 male athletes, 60 athletes in individual sports (wrestling, taekwondo and karate and 60 athletes in team sports (futsal, volleyball and basketball. The research instrument employed was the Persian version of the Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2. This inventory was distributed among the subjects about 30 minutes before the first competition. Finally by one-way ANOVA data was analyzed. Results: The results indicated that the mean score of somatic anxiety and cognitive anxiety among individual sport athletes was significantly higher than that of team sport athletes (p0.05. Conclusion: It seems the being part of a team alleviates some of the pressure experienced by those who compete alone. It seems the individual sport athletes may be more exposed to evaluation and more engaged in their own skills and abilities than team sport athletes given that responsibility for performance is not distributed across several performers.

  14. A comparative legal analysis of social media advertising of drugs in Germany and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechner, Bianca

    2013-01-01

    Pharmaceutical companies use social media such as Facebook and Twitter more and more to advertise their products. Advertising of medicinal products especially in social media is a critical issue confronting patient protection, competition law and ethical concerns in direct-to-consumer advertising. Advertising in the World Wide Web must take into account national and international regulations, depending on which user from which country will have access to the information posted. Different legal requirements, if any, regulate the advertising of medicinal products. This paper discusses, challenges and compares the requirements and regulations of advertising medicinal products in social media, such as Facebook, in the United States on a federal level and the European Union with Germany as a reference Member State. Social media are very active and fast moving. Therefore, it is challenging and necessary at the same time to set guidelines and regulations for the use of social media in drug advertising. This paper is a first step toward promoting an international, consistent approach when talking about regulating advertising of medicinal products in social media.

  15. Comparative Study Between Internal Ohmic Resistance and Capacity for Battery State of Health Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nisvo Ramadan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to avoid battery failure, a battery management system (BMS is necessary. Battery state of charge (SOC and state of health (SOH are part of information provided by a BMS. This research analyzes methods to estimate SOH based lithium polymer battery on change of its internal resistance and its capacity. Recursive least square (RLS algorithm was used to estimate internal ohmic resistance while coloumb counting was used to predict the change in the battery capacity. For the estimation algorithm, the battery terminal voltage and current are set as the input variables. Some tests including static capacity test, pulse test, pulse variation test and before charge-discharge test have been conducted to obtain the required data. After comparing the two methods, the obtained results show that SOH estimation based on coloumb counting provides better accuracy than SOH estimation based on internal ohmic resistance. However, the SOH estimation based on internal ohmic resistance is faster and more reliable for real application

  16. Comparative activation states of tumor-associated and peritoneal macrophages from mice bearing an induced fibrosarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, J C; de Alderete, N; Meson, O E; Sirena, A; Perdigon, G

    1990-11-01

    Balb/c mice bearing a methylcholanthrene-induced fibrosarcoma were used to compare the activation levels of tumor-associated and peritoneal macrophages. Two stages of tumor growth were examined, namely "small" and "large" tumors, with average diameters of 10 and 30 mm, respectively. The activation state, determined by measurement of both phagocytic index and beta-glucuronidase content, was found to be markedly higher in tumor-associated macrophages than in their peritoneal counterparts and it was, in addition, independent of tumor progression. The percentage of tumor-associated macrophages, which were detected on the basis of Fc receptor expression, remained constant in the growing neoplasm, at approximately 23% of total cell population. None of these parameters were affected by inoculation with an immunopotentiating dose of heat-killed Candida albicans which, on the other hand, seemed not to alter the course of the tumor. These data suggest that within the tumor microenvironment macrophages would somehow be maintained at a constant proportion and at a highly activated state, while outside the tumor they would be at a lower activation level. Our results also suggest that TAM would not possess antitumor activity in vivo, although we have found this activity in vitro.

  17. Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K C Gouda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

  18. Comparing Growth Trajectories of Risk Behaviors from Late Adolescence through Young Adulthood: An Accelerated Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S.; Croudace, Tim J.; Brown, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of…

  19. The Comparative Risk of Delirium with Different Opioids : A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, Lieke M.; van der Zanden, Vera; Spies, Petra E.; de Rooij, Sophia E.; van Munster, Barbara C.

    Objective There is substantial evidence that the use of opioids increases the risk of adverse outcomes such as delirium, but whether this risk differs between the various opioids remains controversial. In this systematic review, we evaluate and discuss possible differences in the risk of

  20. Potential health risks due to telecommunications radiofrequency radiation exposures in Lagos State Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aweda, M A; Ajekigbe, A T; Ibitoye, A Z; Evwhierhurhoma, B O; Eletu, O B

    2009-01-01

    The global system mobile telecommunications system (GSM) which was recently introduced in Nigeria is now being used by over 40 million people in Nigeria. The use of GSM is accompanied with exposure of the users to radiofrequency radiation (RFR), which if significant, may produce health hazards. This is the reason why many relevant national and international organizations recommended exposure limits to RFR and why it is made compulsory for GSM handsets to indicate the maximum power output as a guide to potential consumers. This study was conducted to measure the RFR output power densities (S) from the most commonly used GSM handsets used in Lagos State and compare with the limit recommended for safety assessment. Over 1100 most commonly used handsets of different makes and models as well as wireless phones were sampled and studied in all over the local government areas of the State. An RFR meter, Electrosmog from LESSEMF USA was used for the measurements. The handsets were assessed for health risks using the reference value of 9 Wm(-2) as recommended by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP). The range of the S-values obtained varied from a minimum of 1.294 0.101 Wm(-2) with Siemens model R228 to a maximum of 16.813 +/- 0.094 Wm(-2) with Samsung model C140*. The results from wireless telephones showed very low S-values ranging from a minimum of 0.024 +/- 0.001 Wm(-2) with HUAWEI and ST CDMA 1 to a maximum of 0.093 +/- 0.002 Wm(-2) with HISENSE. The results showed that the population in Lagos State may be at risk due to significant RFR exposures resulting principally from the use of GSM. Quite a number of handsets emit power above the ICNIRP recommended value. Measured RFR power close to Radio and Television masts and transmitters are within tolerable limits in most cases, only that the public should not reside or work close to RFR installations. Phone calls with GSM should be restricted to essential ones while youths and children

  1. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for wildfire in the Western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell

    2012-01-01

    Wildfire is one of the two most significant disturbance agents (the other being insects) in forest ecosystems of the Western United States, and in a warmer climate, will drive changes in forest composition, structure, and function (Dale et al. 2001, McKenzie et al. 2004). Although wildfire is highly stochastic in space and time, sufficient data exist to establish clear...

  2. United States Physical Therapists' Knowledge About Joint Hypermobility Syndrome Compared with Fibromyalgia and Rheumatoid Arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russek, Leslie N; LaShomb, Emily A; Ware, Amy M; Wesner, Sarah M; Westcott, Vanessa

    2016-03-01

    Joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS) is one of the most common inherited connective tissue disorders. It causes significant pain and disability for all age groups, ranging from developmental delay among children to widespread chronic pain in adults. Experts in JHS assert that the condition is under-recognized and poorly managed. The aim of this study was to assess US physical therapists' knowledge about JHS compared with other causes of widespread pain and activity limitations: fibromyalgia, juvenile rheumatoid arthritis and adult rheumatoid arthritis. Cross-sectional, Internet-based survey of randomly selected members of the American Physical Therapy Association and descriptive statistics were used to explore physical therapists' knowledge about JHS, fibromyalgia, juvenile rheumatoid arthritis and adult rheumatoid arthritis, and chi square was used to compare knowledge about the different conditions. The response rate was 15.5% (496). Although 36% recognized the Beighton Scale for assessing joint hypermobility, only 26.8% of respondents were familiar with the Brighton Criteria for diagnosing JHS. Few respondents (11-19%) realized that JHS has extra-articular features such as anxiety disorder, fatigue, headache, delayed motor development, easy bruising and sleep disturbance. Physical therapists working in environments most likely to see patients with JHS underestimated the likely prevalence in their patient population. The results suggest that many physical therapists in the United States are not familiar with the diagnostic criteria, prevalence or common clinical presentation of JHS. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Comparative study of clinicopathological states and imaging diagnosis in patients with fatty liver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ariga, Hisayuki; Arakawa, Yasuyuki; Miyamoto, Masatoshi

    1985-01-01

    The authors clarified the characteristics of the clinicopathological states of 74 patients with the fatty liver classified by the etiology, simultaneously evaluating clinically the usefulness of imaging diagnosis with ultrasound and CT by the comparison of pathohistological findings(the rate of fat occupation in the liver). It was confirmed that, although the outcome of ultrasonic diagnosis was inferior to that of CT in the diagnostic capacity, the so-called bright liver finding was obtained, provided that the accumulation of fat in the liver was over Grade III (40 - 60 %), and that clinical diagnosis for fatty liver was possible. With CT, on the other hand, there was negative correlation between the degree of fat accumulation in the liver vs. the liver CT level and the CT ratio of the liver/spleen. Particularly, the CT ratio of the liver/spleen in this disease was 0.80 ± 0.18, indicating a significantly lower level as compared with 1.13 ± 0.13 in the control (p < 0.001). It is therefore suggested that, in patients in whom accumulation of fat in the liver is comparatively a lower level of Grade II (20 - 40 %), diagnosis for fatty liver by CT may be possible at a considerably high probability. Since these imaging diagnostic methods have been highly evaluated as non-invasive and convenient screening means of the fatty liver, it is important to establish the diagnostic criteria for graphic quantification of the fatty liver. (author)

  4. State regulation of nuclear sector: comparative study of Argentina and Brazil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro Filho, Joselio Silveira

    2004-08-01

    This research presents a comparative assessment of the regulation models of the nuclear sector in Argentina - under the responsibility of the Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear (ARN), and Brazil - under the responsibility of Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), trying to identify which model is more adequate aiming the safe use of nuclear energy. Due to the methodology adopted, the theoretical framework resulted in criteria of analysis that corresponds to the characteristics of the Brazilian regulatory agencies created for other economic sector during the State reform staring in the middle of the nineties. Later, these criteria of analysis were used as comparison patterns between the regulation models of the nuclear sectors of Argentina and Brazil. The comparative assessment showed that the regulatory structure of the nuclear sector in Argentina seems to be more adequate, concerning the safe use of nuclear energy, than the model adopted in Brazil by CNEN, because its incorporates the criteria of functional, institutional and financial independence, competence definitions, technical excellence and transparency, indispensable to the development of its functions with autonomy, ethics, exemption and agility. (author)

  5. Comparative Party System Analysis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Case of the Baltic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tõnis Saarts

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The nature of the party systems in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE has puzzled many scholars. High instability of the party systems and their specific evolution makes the application of theoretical models designed predominately for Western European party politics problematic. The paper puts forward the argument that we should further elaborate and specify the models for a small N comparative party system analysis in CEE countries and to incorporate some region specific components into the framework. The essential dimensions included into proposed comparative framework are as follows: (1 the stability of the party system, (2 party system fragmentation, (3 parties´ penetration into society, (4 the ideology and origins of the major parties, (5 the dominant cleavage constellations framing the party competition (6 the strength of the party organizations. The above-mentioned dimensions are expected to capture the most important aspects that make the difference between the party systems in general, and each dimension is complemented with the specific additional variables suitable for party system analysis in CEE in particular. The framework will be tested on the Baltic States, which party systems are often regarded to be very similar to each other. However, the analysis will demonstrate that based on the above-mentioned framework, very significant and noteworthy differences will be revealed.

  6. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  7. Impact of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients: A comparative interrupted time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Murimi, Irene; Faul, Mark; Rutkow, Lainie; Alexander, G Caleb

    2018-04-01

    We quantified the effects of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients. We used QuintilesIMS LRx Lifelink data to identify patients receiving prescription opioids in Florida (intervention state, N: 1.13 million) and Georgia (control state, N: 0.54 million). The preintervention, intervention, and postintervention periods were July 2010 to June 2011, July 2011 to September 2011, and October 2011 to September 2012. We identified 3 types of high-risk patients: (1) concomitant users: patients with concomitant use of benzodiazepines and opioids; (2) chronic users: long-term, high-dose, opioid users; and (3) opioid shoppers: patients receiving opioids from multiple sources. We compared changes in opioid prescriptions between Florida and Georgia before and after policy implementation among high-risk/low-risk patients. Our monthly measures included (1) average morphine milligram equivalent per transaction, (2) total opioid volume across all prescriptions, (3) average days supplied per transaction, and (4) total number of opioid prescriptions dispensed. Among opioid-receiving individuals in Florida, 6.62% were concomitant users, 1.96% were chronic users, and 0.46% were opioid shoppers. Following policy implementation, Florida's high-risk patients experienced relative reductions in morphine milligram equivalent (opioid shoppers: -1.08 mg/month, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.62 to -0.54), total opioid volume (chronic users: -4.58 kg/month, CI -5.41 to -3.76), and number of dispensed opioid prescriptions (concomitant users: -640 prescriptions/month, CI -950 to -340). Low-risk patients generally did not experience statistically significantly relative reductions. Compared with Georgia, Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law were associated with large relative reductions in prescription opioid utilization among high-risk patients. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Oximeter-based autonomic state indicator algorithm for cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grote, Ludger; Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Eder, Derek N; Hedner, Jan

    2011-02-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment is important in clinical practice. An autonomic state indicator (ASI) algorithm based on pulse oximetry was developed and validated for CV risk assessment. One hundred forty-eight sleep clinic patients (98 men, mean age 50 ± 13 years) underwent an overnight study using a novel photoplethysmographic sensor. CV risk was classified according to the European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology (ESH/ESC) risk factor matrix. Five signal components reflecting cardiac and vascular activity (pulse wave attenuation, pulse rate acceleration, pulse propagation time, respiration-related pulse oscillation, and oxygen desaturation) extracted from 99 randomly selected subjects were used to train the classification algorithm. The capacity of the algorithm for CV risk prediction was validated in 49 additional patients. Each signal component contributed independently to CV risk prediction. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to distinguish high/low CV risk in the validation group were 80% and 77%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for high CV risk classification was 0.84. β-Blocker treatment was identified as an important factor for classification that was not in line with the ESH/ESC reference matrix. Signals derived from overnight oximetry recording provide a novel potential tool for CV risk classification. Prospective studies are warranted to establish the value of the ASI algorithm for prediction of outcome in CV disease.

  9. Risk and protective factors associated with being bullied on school property compared with cyberbullied

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray M. Merrill

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We identified bullying victimization (bullied on school property versus cyberbullied by selected demographic, personal characteristic, and behavior variables. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on adolescents (n = 13,583 completing the 2013 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS in grades 9 through 12. Results Being bullied on school property in the past 12 months was significantly more common in females than males, in earlier school grades, and in Whites and other racial groups compared with Blacks and Hispanics. Being bullied on school property generally decreased with later school grades, but cyberbullying in the past 12 months remained constant. Being bullied on school property or cyberbullied was significantly positively associated with mental health problems, substance use, being overweight, playing video games for 3 or more hours per day, and having asthma. The association was greatest with having mental health problems. Cyberbullying was generally more strongly associated with these conditions and behaviors. Protective behaviors against bullying victimization included eating breakfast every day, being physically active, and playing on sports teams. Those experiencing victimization on school property and cyberbullying were significantly more likely to experience mental health problems compared with just one of these types of bullying or neither. Conclusions Cyberbullying victimization is generally more strongly associated with mental health problems, substance use, being overweight, playing video games for 3 or more hours per day, and having asthma than bullying victimization on school property. However, because bullying on school property is more common in grades 9–11, this form of bullying has a greater burden on these conditions and behaviors in these school grades.

  10. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  11. Risk and protective factors associated with being bullied on school property compared with cyberbullied.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray M; Hanson, Carl L

    2016-02-12

    We identified bullying victimization (bullied on school property versus cyberbullied) by selected demographic, personal characteristic, and behavior variables. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on adolescents (n = 13,583) completing the 2013 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) in grades 9 through 12. Being bullied on school property in the past 12 months was significantly more common in females than males, in earlier school grades, and in Whites and other racial groups compared with Blacks and Hispanics. Being bullied on school property generally decreased with later school grades, but cyberbullying in the past 12 months remained constant. Being bullied on school property or cyberbullied was significantly positively associated with mental health problems, substance use, being overweight, playing video games for 3 or more hours per day, and having asthma. The association was greatest with having mental health problems. Cyberbullying was generally more strongly associated with these conditions and behaviors. Protective behaviors against bullying victimization included eating breakfast every day, being physically active, and playing on sports teams. Those experiencing victimization on school property and cyberbullying were significantly more likely to experience mental health problems compared with just one of these types of bullying or neither. Cyberbullying victimization is generally more strongly associated with mental health problems, substance use, being overweight, playing video games for 3 or more hours per day, and having asthma than bullying victimization on school property. However, because bullying on school property is more common in grades 9-11, this form of bullying has a greater burden on these conditions and behaviors in these school grades.

  12. Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development for small island developing states

    OpenAIRE

    Shultz, James M.; Cohen, Madeline A.; Hermosilla, Sabrina; Espinel, Zelde; McLean, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    In contrast to continental nations, the world's 52 small island developing states (SIDS) are recognized as a collective of countries that experience disproportionate challenges for sustainable development related to their geography, small size, and physical isolation. These same states also face elevated risks for disaster incidence and consequences particularly in the realms of climate change, sea level rise, natural disasters (tropical cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes), and marine...

  13. Risks of corruption to state legitimacy and stability in fragile situations

    OpenAIRE

    Dix, Sarah; Hussmann, Karen; Walton, Grant

    2012-01-01

    Examining the cases of Liberia, Nepal and Colombia, this study asks how corruption poses risks to political legitimacy and stability in fragile situations. The report focuses on the key role of elites and their views of the state's legitimacy in determining the extent to which there will be instability or stability. Qualitative interviews of elites show that two particular patronage scenarios are seen as threatening stability. One is when the state or illegal actors sustain a corrupt network ...

  14. Comparing carbon capture and storage (CCS) with concentrating solar power (CSP): Potentials, costs, risks, and barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilliestam, Johan; Bielicki, Jeffrey M.; Patt, Anthony G.

    2012-01-01

    Coal power coupled with Carbon [Dioxide] Capture and Storage (CCS), and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies are often included in the portfolio of climate change mitigation options intended to decarbonize electricity systems. Both of these technologies can provide baseload electricity, are in early stages of maturity, and have benefits, costs, and obstacles. We compare and contrast CCS applied to coal-fired power plants with CSP. At present, both technologies are more expensive than existing electricity-generating options, but costs should decrease with large-scale deployment, especially in the case of CSP. For CCS, technological challenges still remain, storage risks must be clarified, and regulatory and legal uncertainties remain. For CSP, current challenges include electricity transmission and business models for a rapid and extensive expansion of high-voltage transmission lines. The need for international cooperation may impede CSP expansion in Europe. Highlights: ► Both technologies could provide low-carbon base load power. ► Both technologies require new networks, for either CO 2 or power transmission. ► CSP is closer to being a viable technology ready for pervasive diffusion. ► The costs associated with market saturation would be lower for CSP. ► The regulatory changes required for CSP diffusion are somewhat greater than for CCS.

  15. Comparing expressed and revealed preferences for risk reduction: different hazards and question frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDaniels, T.L.

    1988-01-01

    Studies often note the wide differences that exist in costs per death avoided across US federal programs and regulatory contexts. This paper explores two new, related explanations for these differences. First, it argues that the patterns of revealed preferences (public allocations) may be related to public values, which are measured here through subjects' expressed preference responses to a contingent valuation survey regarding risk reduction. Subjects' expressed values are compared to actual (and proposed) costs of safety regulations for a similar set of hazards. The authors discover strong congruence in the ranking of expressed values and actual values. Second, the paper presents the results of a subsequent survey that investigates why the patterns observed in the first survey might occur. It suggests that one reason for the observed similarities between revealed and expressed preferences may be in how choices are framed. The paper hypothesizes that both subjects and decision makers may frame valuation decisions in the same way: as percentage changes from the reference point provided by the base rate of deaths for that hazard

  16. Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

    2010-08-01

    This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

  17. Caries risk assessment in young adults using Public Dental Service guidelines and the Cariogram-a comparative study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hänsel Petersson, Gunnel; Ericson, Ewa; Isberg, Per-Erik

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objectives. To investigate the caries risk profiles in young adults and to compare the risk classification using the Public Dental Service (PDS) guidelines with a risk assessment program, the Cariogram. Materials and methods. All 19-year-old patients registered at eight public dental...... clinics were invited to participate (n = 1699). The study group who completed the baseline examination consisted of 1295 subjects representing 10% of all 19 year-olds attending dental care at the PDS in Skåne, Sweden. A risk classification of each patient was made by the patient's regular team according...... to the PDS guidelines. A research team collected whole saliva samples and information from a questionnaire and a structured interview in order to calculate risk according to the Cariogram model. Results. The mean DFS value was 4.9 and 23% of the patients were registered as caries-free (DFS = 0). The PDS risk...

  18. Skin Cancer Risk in Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplant Recipients Compared With Background Population and Renal Transplant Recipients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Omland, Silje Haukali; Gniadecki, Robert; Hædersdal, Merete

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: While a high risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer is well recognized in solid-organ transplant recipients, the risk of skin cancer in hematopoietic stem-cell transplant (HSCT) recipients has not been extensively studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of cutaneous cancer in HSCT recipients...... autologous) from 1999 through 2014, 4789 RTRs from 1976 through 2014, and 10 age- and sex-matched nontransplanted individuals for each of the groups from the background population. Person-years at risk were calculated from the time of study inclusion until first cutaneous cancer. To compare the risk of skin...... cancer between transplant recipients and background population, we used a stratified proportional hazard regression model for hazard ratio (HR) estimations. By use of the cumulative incidence, we estimated 5- and 10-year risks of skin cancers. All RTR and HSCT recipients were treated and followed up...

  19. Comparative research on NIMBY risk acceptability between Chinese and Japanese college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yunqing; Zhai, Guofang; Li, Shasha; Ren, Chongqiang; Tsuchida, Shoji

    2014-10-01

    Along with the progressive acceleration of urbanization, the need to identify potentially troublesome "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) facilities in the city is inevitable. To resolve NIMBY conflict, it is important to know people's NIMBY risk acceptability for these facilities. A questionnaire survey was used among Chinese and Japanese college students to identify NIMBY risk acceptability. LISREL was used to construct a structural equation model to analyze the difference in NIMBY risk acceptability between the Chinese and Japanese college students. Factors that may affect NIMBY risk acceptability were analyzed: "perceiving utility," "perceiving risk," "trust in government," "reasonable compensation," and "procedural justice." The findings show that Japanese students' concerns were greater than Chinese students' concerns. Perceiving utility and perceiving risk were the most important factors that affect people's NIMBY risk acceptability, followed by procedural justice, trust in government, and reasonable compensation. There is a difference between the different cultural backgrounds in confronting the risk: Chinese students focus more on the reputation and value of real estate, while Japanese students pay more attention to environmental pollution and damage to health. Furthermore, cultural influences play a role in students' risk perception. To improve the risk acceptability for NIMBY facilities and provide a basis for resolving NIMBY conflicts, it is necessary to ensure the benefits of the NIMBY facility while reducing environmental pollution. The findings of this study may be of interest for policy makers and practitioners to devise future NIMBY strategies.

  20. Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.

  1. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lim, S.S.; Vos, T.; Flaxman, A.D.; Danaei, G.; Shibuya, K.; Adair-Rohani, H.; Amann, M.; Anderson, H.R.; Andrews, K.G.; Aryee, M.; Atkinson, C.; Bacchus, L.J.; Bahalim, A.N.; Balakrishnan, K.; Balmes, J.; Barker-Collo, S.; Baxter, A.; Bell, M.L.; Blore, J.D.; Blyth, F.; Bonner, C.; Borges, G.; Bourne, R.; Boussinesq, M.; Brauer, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31149157X; Brooks, P.; Bruce, N.G.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Bryan-Hancock, C.; Bucello, C.; Buchbinder, R.; Bull, F.; Burnett, R.T.; Byers, T.E.; Calabria, B.; Carapetis, J.; Carnahan, E.; Chafe, Z.; Charlson, F.; Chen, H.; Chen, J.S.; Cheng, A.T.; Child, J.C.; Cohen, A.; Colson, K.E.; Cowie, B.C.; Darby, S.; Darling, S.; Davis, A.; Degenhardt, L.; Dentener, F.; Des Jarlais, D.C.; Devries, K.; Dherani, M.; Ding, E.L.; Dorsey, E.R.; Driscoll, T.; Edmond, K.; Ali, S.E.; Engell, R.E.; Erwin, P.J.; Fahimi, S.; Falder, G.; Farzadfar, F.; Ferrari, A.; Finucane, M.M.; Flaxman, S.; Fowkes, F.G.R.; Freedman, G.; Freeman, M.K.; Gakidou, E.; Ghosh, S.; Giovannucci, E.; Gmel, G.; Graham, K.; Grainger, R.; Grant, B.; Gunnell, D.; Gutierrez, H.R.; Hall, W.; Hoek, H.W.; Hogan, A.; Hosgood, H.D.; Hoy, D.; Hu, H.; Hubbell, B.J.; Hutchings, S.J.; Ibeanusi, S.E.; Jacklyn, G.L.; Jasrasaria, R.; Jonas, J.B.; Kan, H.; Kanis, J.A.; Kassebaum, N.; Kawakami, N.; Khang, Y-H.; Khatibzadeh, S.; Khoo, J-P.; de Kok, C.; Laden, F.; Lalloo, R.; Lan, Q.; Lathlean, T.; Leasher, J.L.; Leigh, J.; Li, Y.; Lin, J.K.; Lipshultz, S.E.; London, S.; Lozano, R.; Lu, Y.; Mak, J.; Malekzadeh, R.; Mallinger, L.; Marcenes, W.; March, L.; Marks, R.; Martin, R.; McGale, P.; McGrath, J.; Mehta, S.; Mensah, G.A.; Merriman, T.R.; Micha, R.; Michaud, C.; Mishra, V.; Hanafiah, K.M.; Mokdad, A.A.; Morawska, L.; Mozaffarian, D.; Murphy, T.; Naghavi, M.; Neal, B.; Nelson, P.K.; Nolla, J.M.; Norman, R.; Olives, C.; Omer, S. B; Orchard, J.; Osborne, R.; Ostro, B.; Page, A.; Pandey, K.D.; Parry, C.D.H.; Passmore, E.; Patra, J.; Pearce, N.; Pelizzari, P.M.; Petzold, M.; Phillips, M.R.; Pope, D.; Pope, C.A.; Powles, J.; Rao, M.; Razavi, H.; Rehfuess, E.A.; Rehm, J.T.; Ritz, B.; Rivara, F.P.; Roberts, T.; Robinson, C.; Rodriguez-Portales, J.A.; Romieu, I.; Room, R.; Rosenfeld, L.C.; Roy, A.; Rushton, L.; Salomon, J.A.; Sampson, U.; Sanchez-Riera, L.; Sanman, E.; Sapkota, A.; Seedat, S.; Shi, P.; Shield, K.; Shivakoti, R.; Singh, G.M.; Sleet, D.A.; Smith, E.; Smith, K.R.; Stapelberg, N.J.C.; Steenland, K.; Stöckl, H.; Stovner, L.J.; Straif, K.; Straney, L.; Thurston, G.D.; Tran, J.H.; van Dingenen, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Veerman, J.L.; Vijayakumar, L.; Weintraub, R.; Weissman, M.M.; White, R.A.; Whiteford, H.; Wiersma, S.T.; Wilkinson, J.D.; Williams, H.C.; Williams, W.; Wilson, N.; Woolf, A.D.; Yip, P.; Zielinski, J.M.; Lopez, A.D.; Murray, C.J.L.; Ezzati, M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk

  2. Cardiovascular Risk Factor Management Performance in Canada and the United States: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabousi, Mostafa; Abdullah, Peri; Alter, David A; Booth, Gillian L; Hogg, William; Ko, Dennis T; Manuel, Douglas G; Farkouh, Michael E; Tu, Jack V; Udell, Jacob A

    2017-03-01

    Comparative cardiovascular risk factor care across North America is unknown. We aimed to determine current performance in Canada and the United States (US). A systematic review was conducted of Medline and EMBASE (to June 1, 2014). Eligible studies reported on screening, awareness, treatment, or control rates for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and smoking. Categorical performance 'ratings' on the basis of the most successful US health plans were used to classify rates as suboptimal ( 90%). A total of 127 studies reporting on 10,510,324 individuals across North America were included. Hypertension awareness (84.3%) and treatment (82.0%) rates in Canada and the US (82.7% and 75.6%, respectively) were above target, whereas control in both nations was below target (68.1% vs 51.8%, respectively). Canadian awareness, treatment, and control rates for dyslipidemia (42.7%, 40.9%, and 41.5%, respectively) were suboptimal, and American indicators were generally below target (61.5%, 43.0%, and 63.6%, respectively). Canada and the US showed diabetes awareness (88.2% vs 86.8%) and treatment rates (82.3% vs 82.5%) above target. However, glucose control was suboptimal in Canada (35.3%), and below target in the US (58.8%). There was a modest decline in absolute smoking prevalence rates in Canada from 1999 to 2013 (25.2% to 14.6%). Screening for tobacco use (72.2%) and counselling rates (73.8%) in the US were above target. Substantial variation exists in cardiovascular risk factor care across North America. Standardized reporting, dissemination of practice guidelines, and setting explicit goal-directed targets for performance might facilitate improvement. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Resting-State Functional Connectivity in Individuals with Down Syndrome and Williams Syndrome Compared with Typically Developing Controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Jennifer N; Hohman, Timothy J; Pryweller, Jennifer R; Dykens, Elisabeth M; Thornton-Wells, Tricia A

    2015-10-01

    The emergence of resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) analysis, which examines temporal correlations of low-frequency (syndrome (DS) compared with another neurodevelopmental disorder, Williams syndrome (WS), and TD. Ten subjects with DS, 18 subjects with WS, and 40 subjects with TD each participated in a 3-Tesla MRI scan. We tested for group differences (DS vs. TD, DS vs. WS, and WS vs. TD) in between- and within-network rsFC connectivity for seven functional networks. For the DS group, we also examined associations between rsFC and other cognitive and genetic risk factors. In DS compared with TD, we observed higher levels of between-network connectivity in 6 out 21 network pairs but no differences in within-network connectivity. Participants with WS showed lower levels of within-network connectivity and no significant differences in between-network connectivity relative to DS. Finally, our comparison between WS and TD controls revealed lower within-network connectivity in multiple networks and higher between-network connectivity in one network pair relative to TD controls. While preliminary due to modest sample sizes, our findings suggest a global difference in between-network connectivity in individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders compared with controls and that such a difference is exacerbated across many brain regions in DS. However, this alteration in DS does not appear to extend to within-network connections, and therefore, the altered between-network connectivity must be interpreted within the framework of an intact intra-network pattern of activity. In contrast, WS shows markedly lower levels of within-network connectivity in the default mode network and somatomotor network relative to controls. These findings warrant further investigation using a task-based procedure that may help disentangle the relationship between brain function and cognitive performance across the spectrum of neurodevelopmental disorders.

  4. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H. Ross

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the fi rst of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantifi cation, particularly of modifi able risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for ...

  5. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forouzanfar, M.H.; Alexander, L.; Ross Anderson, H.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for

  6. US State-level income inequality and risks of heart attack and coronary risk behaviors: longitudinal findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Gilman, Stephen E

    2015-07-01

    To examine prospectively the association between US state income inequality and incidence of heart attack. We used data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (n = 34,445). Respondents completed interviews at baseline (2001-2002) and follow-up (2004-2005). Weighted multilevel modeling was used to determine if US state-level income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) at baseline was a predictor of heart attack during follow-up, controlling for individual-level and state-level covariates. In comparison to residents of US states in the lowest quartile of income inequality, those living in the second [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 1.71, 95 % CI 1.16-2.53)], third (AOR = 1.81, 95 % CI 1.28-2.57), and fourth (AOR = 2.04, 95 % CI 1.26-3.29) quartiles were more likely to have a heart attack. Similar findings were obtained when we excluded those who had a heart attack prior to baseline. This study is one of the first to empirically show the longitudinal relationship between income inequality and coronary heart disease. Living in a state with higher income inequality increases the risk for heart attack among US adults.

  7. At risk of being risky: The relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc D. Rudolph

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N = 212; 10–25y examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that “brain age” across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts relates to a group mean difference in risk perception − a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18–21. The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at “risk to be risky.”

  8. At risk of being risky: the relationship between “brain age” under emotional states and risk preference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, Marc D.; Miranda-Dominguez, Oscar; Cohen, Alexandra O.; Breiner, Kaitlyn; Steinberg, Laurence; Bonnie, Richard J.; Scott, Elizabeth S.; Taylor-Thompson, Kim A.; Chein, Jason; Fettich, Karla C.; Richeson, Jennifer A.; Dellarco, Danielle V.; Galván, Adriana; Casey, BJ; Fair, Damien A.

    2017-01-01

    Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N=212; 10–25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the “brain age” of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that “brain age” across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts) relates to a group mean difference in risk perception – a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18–21). The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at “risk to be risky.” PMID:28279917

  9. Nuclear and non-nuclear risk. An exercise in comparability. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    The present report is the result of a study contract given out by the CEC in order to collect useful information and opinions in the area of risk assessment and related concepts such as risk acceptability, risk perception and acceptance. The main objectives of the study are to examine the underlying factors which determine the existing levels of non-nuclear risks, and the extent to which societies are likely to seek means of reducing them, and to suggest means of working towards the derivation of acceptable nuclear risks which will be compatible with practice in relation to non-nuclear risks. The Case Studies which comprise Volume 2 of this Report are based on UK experience

  10. Whole Food versus Supplement: Comparing the Clinical Evidence of Tomato Intake and Lycopene Supplementation on Cardiovascular Risk Factors12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Freeman, Britt M.; Sesso, Howard D.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. A link between diet and CVD is well established, with dietary modification a foundational component of CVD prevention and management. With the discovery of bioactive components beyond the essential nutrients of foods, a new era of nutritional, medical, botanical, physiologic, and analytical sciences has unfolded. The ability to identify, isolate, purify, and deliver single components has expanded the dietary supplement business and health opportunity for consumers. Lycopene is an example of a food component that has attracted attention from scientists as well as food, agriculture, and dietary supplement industries. A major question, however, is whether delivering lycopene through a supplement source is as effective as or more effective than consuming lycopene through whole food sources, specifically the tomato, which is the richest source of lycopene in the Western diet. In this review, we examined clinical trials comparing the efficacy of lycopene supplements with tomato products on intermediate CVD risk factors including oxidative stress, inflammation, endothelial function, blood pressure, and lipid metabolism. Overall, the present review highlights the need for more targeted research; however, at present, the available clinical research supports consuming tomato-based foods as a first-line approach to cardiovascular health. With the exception of blood pressure management where lycopene supplementation was favored, tomato intake provided more favorable results on cardiovascular risk endpoints than did lycopene supplementation. Indeed, future research that is well designed, clinically focused, mechanistically revealing, and relevant to human intake will undoubtedly add to the growing body of knowledge unveiling the promise of tomatoes and/or lycopene supplementation as an integral component of a heart-healthy diet. PMID:25469376

  11. Comparative risk-benefit-cost effectiveness in nuclear and alternate power sources: methodology, perspective, limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.; Van Reijen, G.; Maurer, H.; Volta, G.

    1980-01-01

    A critical survey is given of the use of quantitative risk assessment in defining acceptable limits of safety and of its use together with cost-benefit analyses for decision making. The paper indicates uncertainties and even unknowns in risk assessment in particular if the whole fuel cycle for energy production is considered. It is made clear that for decisions on acceptance of risk also the risk perception factor must be considered. A difficult issue here is the potential for low-probability/large consequence accidents. Examples are given, suggestions for improvement are made and perspectives are outlined

  12. Risk Management by a Neoliberal State: Construction of New Knowledge through Lifelong Learning in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Akihiro

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the current developments in Japan's lifelong learning policy and practices. I argue that promoting lifelong learning is an action that manages the risks of governance for the neoliberal state. Implementing a new lifelong learning policy involves the employment of a political technique toward integrating the currently divided…

  13. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

    2011-01-01

    This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

  14. Politics of risk-taking: Welfare state reform in advanced democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, B.

    2010-01-01

    How much and in which direction have the welfare states among the Western democracies changed over the past decades? Moreover, under which conditions have governments enacted these changes? Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, Vis demonstrates ably

  15. Media Messages and Perception of Risk for Ebola Virus Infection, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sell, Tara Kirk; Boddie, Crystal; McGinty, Emma E; Pollack, Keshia; Smith, Katherine Clegg; Burke, Thomas A; Rutkow, Lainie

    2017-01-01

    News media have been blamed for sensationalizing Ebola in the United States, causing unnecessary alarm. To investigate this issue, we analyzed US-focused news stories about Ebola virus disease during July 1-November 30, 2014. We found frequent use of risk-elevating messages, which may have contributed to increased public concern.

  16. Prevalence and herd-level risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in the State of Paraná, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Carmo Pessôa Silva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis is a zoonosis with worldwide distribution. Its control has a direct impact on public health and livestock production. This study estimated the prevalence of infected herds and adult bovines and evaluated risk factors associated with the presence of tuberculosis within herds in the state of Paraná. The state was divided in seven livestock regions and independent sampling was performed. A total of 1,419 farms were sampled and 16,045 animals were tested using the intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin diagnostic test. The apparent and estimated prevalence rates in farms and adult bovine animals were 2.15% (95% CI: 1.31-3.00 and 0.42% (95% CI: 0.04-0.81, respectively. It was not possible to state with 95% confidence that the disease prevalence in any region was significantly different from that in other regions. There were no positive animals in the western region, and the prevalence of positive herds and animals in the other regions ranged from 1.03% to 3.89% and 0.17% to 1.08%, respectively. The logistic regression model identified larger herd size (OR = 2.4 and mechanical cmilking (OR = 5.18 as risk factors associated with the presence of bovine tuberculosis. The combination of low prevalence with risk factors associated to larger herds and more intensive dairy farming, renders the state of Paraná a good candidate for the implementation of industry-based free-herd accreditation schemes and makes a case for planning risk-based surveillance targeted at major dairy basins.

  17. Quitline – 7-Month Follow-Up (Not Comparable Across States) – 2010-2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2010-2011. National Quitline Data Warehouse (NQDW). State Tobacco Activities Tracking and Evaluation (STATE) System. NQDW Data. National Quitline Data Warehouse...

  18. Contents of risk assessments to support the retrieval and closure of tanks for the Washington State Department of Ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MANN, F.M.

    2003-01-01

    Before the Integrated Mission Acceleration Plan can be performed, risk assessments of various options must be performed for ORP, DOE Headquarters, and the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This document focuses on the risk assessments for Ecology

  19. Risks of serious complications and death from smallpox vaccination: A systematic review of the United States experience, 1963–1968

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aragón Tomás J

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The United States (US has re-instituted smallpox vaccinations to prepare for an intentional release of the smallpox virus into the civilian population. In an outbreak, people of all ages will be vaccinated. To prepare for the impact of large-scale ring and mass vaccinations, we conducted a systematic review of the complication and mortality risks of smallpox vaccination. We summarized these risks for post-vaccinial encephalitis, vaccinia necrosum (progressive vaccinia, eczema vaccinatum, generalized vaccinia, and accidental infection (inadvertant autoinoculation. Methods Using a MEDLINE search strategy, we identified 348 articles, of which seven studies met our inclusion criteria (the number of primary vaccinations and re-vaccinations were reported, sufficient data were provided to calculate complication or case-fatality risks, and comparable case definitions were used. For each complication, we estimated of the complication, death, and case-fatality risks. Results The life-threatening complications of post-vaccinial encephalitis and vaccinia necrosum were at least 3 and 1 per million primary vaccinations, respectively. Twenty-nine percent of vaccinees with post-vaccinial encephalitis died and 15% with vaccinia necrosum died. There were no deaths among vaccinees that developed eczema vaccinatum; however, 2.3% of non-vaccinated contacts with eczema vaccinatum died. Among re-vaccinees, the risk of post-vaccinial encephalitis was reduced 26-fold, the risk of generalized vaccinia was reduced 29-fold, and the risk of eczema vaccinatum was reduced 12-fold. However, the risk reductions of accidental infection and vaccinia necrosum were modest (3.8 and 1.5 fold respectively.

  20. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  1. Caries risk assessment in young adults using Public Dental Service guidelines and the Cariogram--a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Ericson, Ewa; Isberg, Per-Erik; Twetman, Svante

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the caries risk profiles in young adults and to compare the risk classification using the Public Dental Service (PDS) guidelines with a risk assessment program, the Cariogram. All 19-year-old patients registered at eight public dental clinics were invited to participate (n = 1699). The study group who completed the baseline examination consisted of 1295 subjects representing 10% of all 19 year-olds attending dental care at the PDS in Skåne, Sweden. A risk classification of each patient was made by the patient's regular team according to the PDS guidelines. A research team collected whole saliva samples and information from a questionnaire and a structured interview in order to calculate risk according to the Cariogram model. The mean DFS value was 4.9 and 23% of the patients were registered as caries-free (DFS = 0). The PDS risk classification was predominantly based on past caries and/or present caries activity. The majority was classified as 'some risk', while 16.7% were assessed as being of 'high' or 'very high risk'. The corresponding value for the two highest risk groups in the Cariogram model was 17.4%. The agreement between the two models was found acceptable (77.5%) for those assessed as low risk, while discrepancies were disclosed among those classified with higher risks. Although the proportion of subjects assessed with high or very high risk was similar using the PDS guidelines and the Cariogram model, the agreement between the models was fair. An acceptable agreement was only disclosed for the low risk category.

  2. Comparative characterization of proteins secreted by Neurospora sitophila in solid-state and submerged fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanjun; Peng, Xiaowei; Chen, Hongzhang

    2013-10-01

    Although submerged fermentation (SmF) accounts for most of current enzyme industries, it has been reported that solid-state fermentation (SSF) can produce higher enzyme yields in laboratory scale. In order to understand the reasons contributing to high enzyme production in SSF, this study compared the cellulase activities and secretomes of Neurospora sitophila cultured in SSF and SmF using steam exploded wheat straw as carbon source and enzyme inducer. The total amounts of protein and biomass (glucosamine content) in SSF were respectively 30 and 2.8 times of those in SmF. The CMCase, FPA and β-glucoside activities in SSF were 53-181 times of those in SmF. Both in SSF and SmF, N. sitophila secreted the most critical cellulases and hemicellulases known for Trichoderma reesei, although a β-xylosidase was exclusively identified in SSF. Six endoglucanases were identified in N. sitophila secretion with the high CMCase activity. The non-enzyme proteins in SSF were involved in fungal mycelia growth and conidiation; while those in SmF were more related to glycometabolism and stress tolerance. This revealed that SSF more likely serves as a natural habitat for filamentous fungi to facilitate the enzyme secretion. Copyright © 2013 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Costs at Public Universities: How Does California Compare with Other States? Report 10-12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Ryan

    2010-01-01

    The cost of attending the University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU) has increased in recent years as UC and CSU have raised fees in response to reduced state funding. Fees are generally lower than fees at public universities in other states, but with California's higher living costs, the overall cost of attendance at UC…

  4. Comparing the Effects of Augmented Reality Phonics and Scripted Phonics Approaches on Achievement of At-Risk Kindergarten Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Melissa

    2016-01-01

    This study strived to determine the effectiveness of the AR phonics program relative to the effectiveness of the scripted phonics program for developing the letter identification, sound verbalization, and blending abilities of kindergarten students considered at-risk based on state assessments. The researcher was interested in pretest and posttest…

  5. Comparative Susceptibility of Plants Native to the Appalachian Range of the United States to Inoculation With Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.G. Linderman; Patricia B. de Sá; E.A. Davis

    2008-01-01

    Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death of trees or ramorum blight of other plant species, has many hosts. Some geographic regions, such as the Appalachian range of the eastern United States, are considered high risk of becoming infested with the pathogen because known susceptible plants occur there and climatic characteristics appear...

  6. The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bankoff, G.E.A.; Hilhorst, D.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what

  7. The risk of disciplinary action by state medical boards against physicians prescribing opioids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Jack; Reidenberg, Marcus M

    2005-02-01

    Concern of physicians about being disciplined for prescribing opioids for patients in pain is one cause for undertreatment of pain. This study was done to assess the actual risk of being disciplined by state medical boards. A review of records of actions by the New York State Board for Professional Medical Misconduct for 3 years and of all medical boards in the United States for 9 months was done to determine this risk. New York State, with 7.8% of U.S. physicians, had 10 physicians disciplined annually related to overprescribing opioids, while the total for the entire U.S. was 120 physicians annually. Most physicians disciplined had multiple violations in addition to overprescribing controlled substances. In the national sample, 43% were prescribing for themselves or for nonpatients, 12% prescribed for addicts without addressing the patients' problems of addiction, 42% had inadequate records, 19% prescribed without indication for opioids, 13% were incompetent in additional ways, and 8% were having sexual activity with patients. Not a single physician, for whom information was available, was disciplined solely for overprescribing opioids. The actual risk of an American physician being disciplined by a state medical board for treating a real patient with opioids for a painful medical condition is virtually nonexistent.

  8. Retinopathy of prematurity: Revisiting incidence and risk factors from Oman compared to other countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zenaida Soriano Reyes

    2017-01-01

    Conclusion: ROP is still commonly encountered in neonatal practice in Oman and other countries. Early GA, low BW, and prolonged oxygen therapy continue to be the main risk factors associated with the occurrence of ROP in our setting. In addition, an important preventable risk factor identified in our cohort includes clinical or proven late-onset sepsis.

  9. Pneumonia risk with inhaled fluticasone furoate and vilanterol compared with vilanterol alone in patients with COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crim, Courtney; Dransfield, Mark T; Bourbeau, Jean

    2015-01-01

    : Radiographically confirmed pneumonia risk is increased with inhaled FF/VI, although at less than investigator-defined rates. Modifiable pneumonia risk factors should be considered when attempting to optimize COPD management. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01009463 [HZC102871]; NCT......RATIONALE: Radiographically confirmed pneumonia risk with inhaled corticosteroid use in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been assessed to date. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of pneumonia, risk factors, and clinical attributes with inhaled fluticasone furoate (FF...... with compatible parenchymal infiltrates, the respective incidences were 2, 4, 4, and 5%. Factors associated with at least a twofold increase in the risk of pneumonia with FF/VI treatment were being a current smoker, having prior pneumonia, body mass index

  10. Comparative health risk assessment of nuclear power and coal power in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Tianshan; Li Yunxing; Fang Dong; Li Hong

    1998-01-01

    The public health risk of ionising radiation released from the coal-fired energy chain, 20 deaths (GW a) -1 , is about 18 times that of the nuclear energy chain, 1.1 deaths (GW a) -1 , in China. The main contributors to the fatality risk for the former are the public dose caused by the use of coal ash and the occupational exposure caused by radon and its progeny in coal mines. The total health risk (but excluding low probability/high consequence accidents) of the coal-fired energy chain, 57.1 deaths (GW a) -1 , is about 12 times of that of the nuclear energy chain, 4.6 deaths (GW a) -1 . The health risk of coal-fired energy chain could be significantly reduced if technique and management were improved. Even then the risk of the coal-fired energy chain is about 4.4 times that of the nuclear energy chain. (author)

  11. Improving the Way State and Federal Co-Regulators Communicate about Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easton, E.; Janairo, L.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores risk communications concepts that could be used by Federal and state governments to help the public understand how government officials rely on risk analysis and management to ensure that shipments of spent fuel and other radioactive wastes take place in a safe, secure manner that merits public confidence. A key focus in the communication concepts put forward in the paper is the relationship between understanding and validating the public's concerns and explaining how those concerns are being addressed by current safety requirements and practices. The authors will recommend best practices to state and Federal officials that have the responsibility for communicating with the public about radioactive waste transportation. The paper will also suggest ways to bring these state and federal co-regulators together to communicate more effectively and to speak with one voice on the issue of shipment safety. (authors)

  12. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

  13. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  14. Comparative Indicators of Education in the United States and Other G-8 Countries: 2009. NCES 2009-039

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David C.; Sen, Anindita; Malley, Lydia B.; Burns, Stephanie D.

    2009-01-01

    This report describes how the education system in the United States compares with education systems in the other Group of Eight (G-8) countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom) that are among the world's most economically developed countries and among the United States' largest economic partners.…

  15. Comparison of cumulative false-positive risk of screening mammography in the United States and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Katja Kemp

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the United States (US), about one-half of women screened with annual mammography have at least one false-positive test after ten screens. The estimate for European women screened ten times biennially is much lower. We evaluate to what extent screening interval, mammogram type......=400,204), between 1991-2012 and 1993-2013, respectively. Model-based cumulative false-positive risks were computed for the entire sample, using two statistical methods (Hubbard Njor) previously used to estimate false-positive risks in the US and Europe. RESULTS: Empirical cumulative risk of at least...... one false-positive test after eight (annual or biennial) screens was 41.9% in BCSC, 16.1% in Copenhagen, and 7.4% in Funen. Variation in screening interval and mammogram type did not explain the differences by country. Using the Hubbard method, the model-based cumulative risks after eight screens...

  16. What is clearance worth? Patients' stated risk tolerance for psoriasis treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Angelyn O; Reed, Shelby D; Johnson, F Reed; Anglin, Greg; Wolka, Anne M; Noel, Rebecca A

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide quantitative evidence of patients' tolerance for therapeutic risks associated with psoriasis treatments that could offer psoriasis improvements beyond the PASI 75 benchmark. We used a discrete-choice experiment in which respondents chose between competing psoriasis treatments characterized by benefits (i.e. reduced plaque severity, reduced plaque area), risks (i.e. 10-year risk of tuberculosis, 10-year risk of death from infection), and treatment regimen. We analyzed choice data using random-parameters logit models for psoriasis affecting the body, face, or hands. Of 927 eligible members of the National Psoriasis Foundation who completed the survey, 28% were unwilling to accept any greater risk of treatment-related infection mortality. Among the remaining 72%, respondents were willing to accept higher risks of infection-related mortality associated with treatment to completely remove plaques covering only 1% of the body, compared to reducing lesions from 10 to 1% of the affected area. This finding was more pronounced for lesions on the face. Most patients placed greater value on eliminating even very small plaques compared to avoiding treatment-related risks. The perceived importance of complete versus near-complete clearance was stronger than previously documented.

  17. Credit Risk Determinants in Banking Sector: A Comparative Analysis of the PIB (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Waqas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the empirical study is to investigate credit risk determinants in banking sectors across three kinds of South Asian economies. An accumulated sample of 105 unbalanced panel data of financial firms over the period of 2000-2015, by applying General Method of Moment (GMM estimation techniques one-step at the difference in order to identify factors influencing credit risk. This study is inspired by two broad categories of explanatory variables which are bank-specific and macroeconomic. Bank-specific factors influencing unsystematic risk, while macroeconomic factors promoting systematic risk. The study uses a proxy of non-performing loans for credit risk in banking sectors of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The empirical results have been found aligned with theoretical arguments and literature as expected. In comparison, NPLs in Pakistan is greater than India and Bangladesh, while India has the lowest ratio of non-performing loans. The study documents that bank-specific factors (inefficiency, profitability, capital ratio and leverage have a significant contribution towards credit risk. Further, the study also finds a significant impact of macroeconomic variables on non-performing loans. While, the result in the case of Bangladesh predict contradictions, that have no significant effect on non-performing loans at various level. The overall results indicate that credit risk is not influenced by only external factors but also affect by internal factors like bad management and skimping etc.

  18. Treatment methods and comparative risks of thorium removal from waste residues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, R.D.; Hamby, D.M.; Martin, J.E.

    1997-07-01

    This study was done to examine the risks of remediation and the effectiveness of removal methods for thorium and its associated radioactive decay products from various soils and wastes associated with DOE`s Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Removal of {sup 230}Th from uranium process residues would significantly reduce the buildup of {sup 226}Ra (half-life of 1600 years), and since {sup 230}Th concentrations at most of the important sites greatly exceed the {sup 226}Ra concentrations, such removal would reduce the accumulation of additional radiation risks associated with {sup 226}Ra and its products; and, if treatment also removed {sup 226}Ra, these risks could be mitigated even further. Removal of {sup 232}Th from thorium process residues would remove the source material for {sup 228}Ra, and since {sup 228}Ra has a half-life of 5.76 years, its control at FUSRAP sites could be done with land use controls for the 30--50 years required for {sup 228}Ra and the risks associated with its decay products to decay away. It must be recognized, however, that treatment methods invariably require workers to process residues and waste materials usually with bulk handling techniques. These processes expose workers to the radioactivity in the materials, therefore, workers would incur radiological risks in addition to industrial accident risks. An important question is whether the potential reduction of future radiological risks to members of the public justifies the risks that are incurred by remediation workers due to handling materials. This study examines, first, the effectiveness of treatment and then the risks that would be associated with remediation.

  19. Treatment methods and comparative risks of thorium removal from waste residues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, R.D.; Hamby, D.M.; Martin, J.E.

    1997-07-01

    This study was done to examine the risks of remediation and the effectiveness of removal methods for thorium and its associated radioactive decay products from various soils and wastes associated with DOE's Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Removal of 230 Th from uranium process residues would significantly reduce the buildup of 226 Ra (half-life of 1600 years), and since 230 Th concentrations at most of the important sites greatly exceed the 226 Ra concentrations, such removal would reduce the accumulation of additional radiation risks associated with 226 Ra and its products; and, if treatment also removed 226 Ra, these risks could be mitigated even further. Removal of 232 Th from thorium process residues would remove the source material for 228 Ra, and since 228 Ra has a half-life of 5.76 years, its control at FUSRAP sites could be done with land use controls for the 30--50 years required for 228 Ra and the risks associated with its decay products to decay away. It must be recognized, however, that treatment methods invariably require workers to process residues and waste materials usually with bulk handling techniques. These processes expose workers to the radioactivity in the materials, therefore, workers would incur radiological risks in addition to industrial accident risks. An important question is whether the potential reduction of future radiological risks to members of the public justifies the risks that are incurred by remediation workers due to handling materials. This study examines, first, the effectiveness of treatment and then the risks that would be associated with remediation

  20. A comparative study of the application of alternative risk transfer methods of insurance in South Africa and Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athenia Bongani Sibindi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alternative risk transfer techniques represent the crown jewels in the risk management arena. This non-traditional method of insurance has gained prominence over the last few decades. Against this backdrop, the present study seeks to unravel the development of the alternative risk financing insurance segment within a developing country setting. The study specifically sets out to compare and contrast the ART insurance market segments of South Africa and Zimbabwe. The study is documents that the Zimbabwean market is at a nascent stage of development, whilst the South African market is fully developed. Notwithstanding the prospects for the development of this sector looks bright

  1. Quality assessment of state land internal audit agency of Ukraine based on risk-oriented approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.G. Vugovska

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article stipulates that in modern conditions of development and reform of the national system of state financial control to the fore the issue of quality, which is an integral part of - or the provision of a service or product produced. In the context of our study on the evaluation of the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency, is the efficiency of its operation. The authors have developed scientific and methodical approach to assessing the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency of Ukraine by specifying the list of evaluation criteria and the implementation of risk-based model selection controlled entities, which allowed to determine the potential risk of financial irregularities and frequency of inspections by the State Financial Inspection. Determined that the planned inspections of the state Land Agency should be not less than once every two years. Applying the above approach will reduce the number of violations in budgetary institutions, improve the quality control organization by the internal audit work, increase the responsibility of the head of an effective, legitimate and proper use of funds. The authors were asked to form a report on the results of the internal audit quality in budgetary institutions and determined that for the cooperation of internal audit bodies of the State financial inspection need to be able to use the latest internal audit report to provide recommendations to improve the functioning of the internal control systems in controlled entities.

  2. Quality improvement strategies and tools: A comparative analysis between Italy and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Stefano; Restuccia, Joseph D; Anessi-Pessina, Eugenio; Rizzo, Marco Giovanni; Cohen, Alan B

    2018-01-01

    Italian and American hospitals, in two different periods, have been urged by external circumstances to extensively redesign their quality improvement strategies. This paper, through the use of a survey administered to chief quality officers in both countries, aims to identify commonalities and differences between the two systems and to understand which approaches are effective in improving quality of care. In both countries chief quality officers report quality improvement has become a strategic priority, clinical governance approaches, and tools-such as disease-specific quality improvement projects and clinical pathways-are commonly used, and there is widespread awareness that clinical decision making must be supported by protocols and guidelines. Furthermore, the study clearly outlines the critical importance of adopting a system-wide approach to quality improvement. To this extent Italy seems lagging behind compared to US in fact: (i) responsibilities for different dimensions of quality are spread across different organizational units; (ii) quality improvement strategies do not typically involve administrative staff; and (iii) quality performance measures are not disseminated widely within the organization but are reported primarily to top management. On the other hand, in Italy chief quality officers perceive that the typical hospital organizational structure, which is based on clinical directories, allows better coordination between clinical specialties than in the United States. In both countries, the results of the study show that it is not the single methodology/model that makes the difference but how the different quality improvement strategies and tools interact to each other and how they are coherently embedded with the overall organizational strategy.

  3. Company performance and reputation risk in state-owned italian listed companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iacopo Cavallini

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between ownership structure (private vs State-owned and company performance has been deeply analyzed by scholars and practitioners. Prior studies found mixed results about this topic; some scholars demonstrated that private firms perform better than State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs and others came to opposite or undefined results. Further, during the global financial crisis, this topic gained relevance. To our best knowledge, Italian framework suffers of a lack of these studies and, in particular, no ones focused on the level of reputation risk in both SOEs and private firms. Aim of this paper is to analyse the difference in the performance and in the reputation risk between Italian SOEs and private firms. To do so we performed a t-test analysis on a sample of 18 State-owned listed firms and 212 private listed firms. Our empirical results found that SOEs have higher ROE and higher Cash flow/sales, but a lower Tobins’ Q than private firms. Further, no statistically significant differences in the reputation risk have been found; therefore financial analysts do not perceive any difference in the reputation risk between private and SOEs. Our results can help practitioners and policy-makers in making investment decisions and choices about the privatization process

  4. BOVINE RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND RISK FACTORS ON CATTLE HERDS OF CAMPECHE STATE, MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisandro Alberto Encalada Mena

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available High seroprevalence in Yucatan and proximity to the state of Campeche make it necessary to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors of bovine respiratory syncytial virus (VRSB in the state of Campeche, Mexico. Thus the objective of the present work was to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV of the state of Campeche, Mexico. The sampled of 36 cattle herds (842 sera were analyzed by indirect ELISA kit, in the 11 municipalities of Campeche. A survey to obtain risk factors (sex, age of animals, number of animals grazing density, management system, presence of sheep on the farm and access to the roadside was applied and calculated X2 for each variable considered. Of the total number of samples analyzed (842, 273 were positive (32.47%. The prevalence ranges found ranged from 0% to 84%, so in 9 of the herds there were no positive samples, indicating a 75% (27/36 of dispersion of this virus. X2 analysis indicated that all variables were significant and are risk factors regarding with respect to the variable seroprevalence of BRSV. The results indicate a wide circulation of BRSV and we suggest implement recommendations that will enable a lower spread of this virus in the cattle population.

  5. Phytotoxic risk assessment of ambient air pollution on agricultural crops in Selangor State, Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, S.; Bell, J.N.B.; Marshall, F.M.

    2007-01-01

    The phytotoxic risk of ambient air pollution to local vegetation was assessed in Selangor State, Malaysia. The AOT40 value was calculated by means of the continuously monitored daily maximum concentration and the local diurnal pattern of O 3 . Together with minor risks associated with the levels of NO 2 and SO 2 , the study found that the monthly AOT40 values in these peri-urban sites were consistently over 1.0 ppm.h, which is well in exceedance of the given European critical level. Linking the O 3 level to actual agricultural crop production in Selangor State also indicated that the extent of yield losses could have ranged from 1.6 to 5.0% (by weight) in 2000. Despite a number of uncertainties, the study showed a simple but useful methodological framework for phytotoxic risk assessment with a limited data set, which could contribute to appropriate policy discussion and countermeasures in countries under similar conditions. - There is a large potential of phytotoxic risk on vegetation in Selangor State, Malaysia

  6. Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Annunziata

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

  7. Comparing the Central Eight Risk Factors: Do They Differ Across Age Groups of Sex Offenders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilpert, Julia; van Horn, Joan E; Boonmann, Cyril

    2018-02-01

    Following the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model, cognitive-behavioral therapy is considered most effective in reducing recidivism when based on dynamic risk factors. As studies have found differences of these factors across age, exploring this seems beneficial. The current study investigates the Central Eight (C8) risk factors across six age groups of outpatient sex offenders ( N = 650). Results showed that recidivism rates and age were inversely related from 19 years and up. Half of the C8 did not predict general recidivism at all, substance abuse, antisocial cognition, antisocial associates, and history of antisocial behavior in only one or several age groups. However, factors differed between age groups, with the youngest group demonstrating the most dysfunction in several areas and the oldest group the least. It is concluded that the C8 risk factors seem to lose significance in the older age groups. Results may benefit targeting treatment goals.

  8. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (CVD) IN GENETICALLY PREDISPOSED RATS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodent CVD models are increasingly used for understanding individual differences in susceptibility to environmental stressors such as air pollution. We characterized pathologies and a number of known human risk factors of CVD in genetically predisposed, male young adult Spontaneo...

  9. Comparative evaluation by lifecycle and risk assessment of agrobiological and technological routes of production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    The application of lifecycle and risk assessment methodologies for environmental assessment of agricultural products is growing and produces interesting results. This allows comparisons between agricultural and technological routes of production. An evaluation of such assessments provides increased

  10. Identification of soil erosion risk areas for conservation planning in different states of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharda, V N; Mandal, Debashis; Ojasvi, P R

    2013-03-01

    Assessment of soil erosion risks, especially in the developing countries, is a challenging task mainly due to non-availability or insufficiency of relevant data. In this paper, the soil erosion risks have been estimated by integrating the spatial data on potential erosion rates and soil loss tolerance limits for conservation planning at state level in India. The erosion risk classes have been prioritized based upon the difference between the prevailing erosion rates and the permissible erosion limits. The analysis revealed that about 50% of total geographical area (TGA) of India, falling in five priority erosion risk classes, requires different intensity of conservation measures though about 91% area suffers from potential erosion rates varying from 40 t ha(-1) yr(-1). Statewise analysis indicated that Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan share about 75% of total area under priority Class 1 (6.4 M ha) though they account for only 19.4% of the total area (36.2 M ha) under very severe potential erosion rate category (> 40 t ha(-1)yr(-1)). It was observed that about 75% of total geographical area (TGA) in the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala and Punjab does not require any specific soil conservation measure as the potential erosion rates are well within the tolerance limits. The developed methodology can be successfully employed for prioritization of erosion risk areas at watershed, region or country level.

  11. Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

    2010-12-01

    Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

  12. POSSIBLE RISKS OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF A MEMBER STATE FROM THE EUROZONE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu-Marius SEITAN

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available By taking into consideration the actual difficult macroeconomic situation of some of the Member States of the Euro Zone, as it was already published, as a scenario, about the possibility of the avoiding the member State position, the present paper will propose, as analyzing subjects, the main impact elements on the other European national economies of such producing scenario.The main risks associated of such scenario, even if such process is an administrated one, are the following ones: the depreciation of the Euro as a result of the economic instability perception at the Euro Zone level; the reducing of the European Budget incomes; the reducing of the European Central banks working founds; a very important risk which also have the character of a political risk and which have an important position being a source of complex and difficult European macroeconomic problems and also which could become the precedent thus created towards other member states possible process of avoiding the member state position.

  13. Stratifying type 2 diabetes cases by BMI identifies genetic risk variants in LAMA1 and enrichment for risk variants in lean compared to obese cases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.R.B. Perry (John); B.F. Voight (Benjamin); L. Yengo (Loic); N. Amin (Najaf); J. Dupuis (Josée); M. Ganser (Martha); H. Grallert (Harald); P. Navarro (Pau); M. Li (Man); L. Qi (Lu); V. Steinthorsdottir (Valgerdur); R.A. Scott (Robert); P. Almgren (Peter); D.E. Arking (Dan); Y.S. Aulchenko (Yurii); B. Balkau (Beverley); R. Benediktsson (Rafn); R.N. Bergman (Richard); E.A. Boerwinkle (Eric); L.L. Bonnycastle (Lori); N.P. Burtt (Noël); H. Campbell (Harry); G. Charpentier (Guillaume); F.S. Collins (Francis); C. Gieger (Christian); T. Green (Todd); S. Hadjadj (Samy); A.T. Hattersley (Andrew); C. Herder (Christian); A. Hofman (Albert); A.D. Johnson (Andrew); A. Köttgen (Anna); P. Kraft (Peter); Y. Labrune (Yann); C. Langenberg (Claudia); A.K. Manning (Alisa); K.L. Mohlke (Karen); A.P. Morris (Andrew); B.A. Oostra (Ben); J.S. Pankow (James); A.K. Petersen; P.P. Pramstaller (Peter Paul); I. Prokopenko (Inga); W. Rathmann (Wolfgang); N.W. Rayner (Nigel William); M. Roden (Michael); I. Rudan (Igor); D. Rybin (Denis); L.J. Scott (Laura); G. Sigurdsson (Gunnar); R. Sladek (Rob); G. Thorleifsson (Gudmar); U. Thorsteinsdottir (Unnur); J. Tuomilehto (Jaakko); A.G. Uitterlinden (André); S. Vivequin (Sidonie); M.N. Weedon (Michael); A.F. Wright (Alan); F.B. Hu (Frank); T. Illig (Thomas); W.H.L. Kao (Wen); J.B. Meigs (James); J.F. Wilson (James); J-A. Zwart (John-Anker); C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); D. Altshuler (David); A.D. Morris (Andrew); M. Boehnke (Michael); M.I. McCarthy (Mark); P. Froguel (Philippe); C.N.A. Palmer (Colin); N.J. Wareham (Nick); L. Groop (Leif); T.M. Frayling (Timothy); S. Cauchi (Stephane)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractCommon diseases such as type 2 diabetes are phenotypically heterogeneous. Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but patients vary appreciably in body mass index. We hypothesized that the genetic predisposition to the disease may be different in lean (BMI<25 Kg/m2) compared

  14. Increased risk of dialysis and end-stage renal disease among HIV patients in Denmark compared with the background population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasch, Magnus G; Helleberg, Marie; Feldt-Rasmussen, Bo

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: HIV patients have increased risk of impaired renal function. We aimed to estimate the incidence of any renal replacement therapy (aRRT) and start of chronic renal replacement therapy (cRRT) among HIV patients compared with population controls. METHODS: In a nationwide, population......-based cohort study we analysed incidence rates (IR), incidence rate ratios (IRR) and risk factors for aRRT and cRRT among HIV patients compared with an age- and gender-matched population control cohort using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We identified 5300 HIV patients and 53 000 population controls. The IRs...

  15. Perceived risk, trust in government, and response to repository siting in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraft, M.E.

    1991-01-01

    Conflicts over the siting of high-level radioactive waste repositories have been intense and unrelenting. Public and state opposition to implementation of the US Nuclear Waste Policy Act is tied closely to the perception of unacceptably high repository risks and to lack of trust and confidence in governmental agencies, particularly the DOE. This paper explores the relationship of perceived risk, trust in government, and opposition to repository siting in the US in an attempt to clarify the conditions of successful implementation of nuclear waste policy in the decades ahead

  16. On the state of the art: risk communication to decision-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bier, V.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art on risk communication to decision-makers, with an emphasis on issues involved in communicating technical results. In particular, the paper discusses the treatment of uncertainty, variability, and dependence. It also reviews suggestions from the literature regarding the appropriate format of risk communication messages to decision-makers. Due to the lack of detailed empirical investigations and definitive results about this topic, the paper is not intended to be a comprehensive review, but rather as an exploration of key issues in this area

  17. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group......, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk...... pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood...

  18. Parenting Behavior, Health, and Cognitive Development among Children in Black Immigrant Families: Comparing the United States and the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Margot

    2012-01-01

    Racial disparities in child development in the United States are significant, with a particularly pronounced disadvantage among Black children. This report focuses on the development of children of Black immigrants, comparing against the outcomes for their peers in native-born and other immigrant families. The report also compares children in the…

  19. Marketing Education in Turkey: A Comparative