WorldWideScience

Sample records for standard bbn scenario

  1. Ultra-cold WIMPs relics of non-standard pre-BBN cosmologies

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B

    2008-01-01

    We point out that in scenarios in which the Universe evolves in a non-standard manner during and after the kinetic decoupling of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), these relics can be much colder than in standard cosmological scenarios (i.e. can be ultra-cold), possibly leading to the formation of smaller first objects in hierarchical structure formation scenarios.

  2. BBN predictions for 4He

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.P.

    1993-01-01

    The standard model of the hot big bang assumes a homogeneous and isotropic Universe with gravity described by General Relativity and strong and electroweak interactions described by the Standard Model of particle physics. The hot big bang model makes the unavoidable prediction that the production of primordial elements occurred about one minute after the big band (referred to as big bang or primordial nucleosynthesis BBN). This review concerns the range of the primordial abundance of 4 He as predicted by standard BBN (i.e., primordial nucleosynthesis assuming a homogeneous distribution of baryons). In it the author discusses: (1) Uncertainties in the calculation of Y p (the mass fraction of primordial 4 He), (2) The expected range of Y p , (3) How the predictions stack up against the latest observations, and (4) The latest BBN bounds on Ω B h 2 and N ν . 13 refs., 2 figs

  3. The cosmic 6Li and 7Li problems and BBN with long-lived charged massive particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karsten, Jedamzik

    2007-01-01

    Charged massive particles (CHAMPs), when present during the Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) era, may significantly alter the synthesis of light elements when compared to a standard BBN scenario. This is due to the formation of bound states with nuclei. This paper presents a detailed numerical and analytical analysis of such CHAMP BBN. All reactions important for predicting light-element yields are calculated within the Born approximation. Three prior neglected effects are treated in detail: (a) photo destruction of bound states due to electromagnetic cascades induced by the CHAMP decay, (b) late-time efficient destruction/production of H 2 , Li 6 , and Li 7 due to reactions on charge Z = 1 nuclei bound to CHAMPs, and (c) CHAMP exchange between nuclei. Each of these effects may induce orders-of-magnitude changes in the final abundance yields. The study focusses on the impact of CHAMPs on a possible simultaneous solution of the Li 6 and Li 7 problems. It is shown that a prior suggested simultaneous solution of the Li 6 and Li 7 problems for a relic decaying at τ x ∼ 1000 s is only very weakly dependent on the relic being neutral or charged, unless its hadronic branching ratio is B h -4 very small. By use of a Monte-Carlo analysis it is shown that within CHAMP BBN the existence of further parameter space for a simultaneous solution of the Li 6 and Li 7 problem for long decay times τ x ≥ 10 6 s seems possible but fairly unlikely. (author)

  4. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K. [Lloyd' s Register Consulting AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2013-10-15

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  5. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K.

    2013-10-01

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  6. Some nuclear physics aspects of BBN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coc, Alain

    2017-09-01

    Primordial or big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is now a parameter free theory whose predictions are in good overall agreement with observations. However, the 7 Li calculated abundance is significantly higher than the one deduced from spectroscopic observations. Nuclear physics solutions to this lithium problem have been investigated by experimental means. Other solutions which were considered involve exotic sources of extra neutrons which inevitably leads to an increase of the deuterium abundance, but this seems now excluded by recent deuterium observations.

  7. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios at ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  9. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  10. Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yimingniyazi, W.

    2007-08-06

    In this thesis we study the relic density n{sub {chi}} of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles {chi} in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles {chi} to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where {chi} particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T{sub 0} of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the {chi} number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T{sub 0}, assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T{sub 0} {>=}m{sub {chi}}/23, where m{sub {chi}} is the mass of {chi}. Second, we discuss the {chi} density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the {chi} annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T {proportional_to}m{sub {chi}}/20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

  11. BBN based Quantitative Assessment of Software Design Specification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Heung-Seop; Park, Gee-Yong; Kang, Hyun-Gook; Kwon, Kee-Choon; Chang, Seung-Cheol

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), which is one of the important methods in assessing the overall safety of a nuclear power plant (NPP), requires quantitative reliability information of safety-critical software, but the conventional reliability assessment methods can not provide enough information for PSA of a NPP. Therefore current PSA which includes safety-critical software does not usually consider the reliability of the software or uses arbitrary values for it. In order to solve this situation this paper proposes a method that can produce quantitative reliability information of safety-critical software for PSA by making use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). BBN has generally been used to model an uncertain system in many research fields including the safety assessment of software. The proposed method was constructed by utilizing BBN which can combine the qualitative and the quantitative evidence relevant to the reliability of safety critical software. The constructed BBN model can infer a conclusion in a formal and a quantitative way. A case study was carried out with the proposed method to assess the quality of software design specification (SDS) of safety-critical software that will be embedded in a reactor protection system. The intermediate V and V results of the software design specification were used as inputs to the BBN model

  12. Standard Establishment Through Scenarios (SETS): A new technique for occupational fitness standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blacklock, R E; Reilly, T J; Spivock, M; Newton, P S; Olinek, S M

    2015-01-01

    An objective and scientific task analysis provides the basis for establishing legally defensible Physical Employment Standards (PES), based on common and essential occupational tasks. Infrequent performance of these tasks creates challenges when developing PES based on criterion, or content validity. Develop a systematic approach using Subject Matter Experts (SME) to provide tasks with 1) an occupationally relevant scenario considered common to all personnel; 2) a minimum performance standard defined by time, distance, load or work. Examples provided here relate to the development of a new PES for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). SME of various experience are selected based on their eligibility criteria. SME are required to define a reasonable scenario for each task from personal experience, provide occupational performance requirements of the scenario in sub-groups, and discuss and agree by consensus vote on the final standard based on the definition of essential. A common and essential task for the CAF is detailed as a case example of process application. Techniques to avoid common SME rating errors are discussed and advantages to the method described. The SETS method was developed as a systematic approach to setting occupational performance standards and qualifying information from SME.

  13. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  14. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  15. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey; Steinberg, Daniel; McCall, James; Richards, James; Sigrin, Benjamin; Porro, Gian

    2016-12-06

    This is the webinar presentation deck used to present the 2016 Standard Scenarios work. It discusses the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) detailed cost and performance projections for electricity-generating technologies and the standard scenarios of the power sector modeling using ATB inputs.

  16. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.

  17. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Das, Paritosh [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    2017-10-03

    The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.

  18. Chemometrics: A new scenario in herbal drug standardization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Bansal

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Chromatography and spectroscopy techniques are the most commonly used methods in standardization of herbal medicines but the herbal system is not easy to analyze because of their complexity of chemical composition. Many cutting-edge analytical technologies have been introduced to evaluate the quality of medicinal plants and significant amount of measurement data has been produced. Chemometric techniques provide a good opportunity for mining more useful chemical information from the original data. Then, the application of chemometrics in the field of medicinal plants is spontaneous and necessary. Comprehensive methods and hyphenated techniques associated with chemometrics used for extracting useful information and supplying various methods of data processing are now more and more widely used in medicinal plants, among which chemometrics resolution methods and principal component analysis (PCA are most commonly used techniques. This review focuses on the recent various important analytical techniques, important chemometrics tools and interpretation of results by PCA, and applications of chemometrics in quality evaluation of medicinal plants in the authenticity, efficacy and consistency. Key words: Chemometrics, HELP, Herbal drugs, PCA, OPA

  19. Chemometrics: A new scenario in herbal drug standardization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bansal, Ankit; Chhabra, Vikas; Rawal, Ravindra K; Sharma, Simant

    2014-08-01

    Chromatography and spectroscopy techniques are the most commonly used methods in standardization of herbal medicines but the herbal system is not easy to analyze because of their complexity of chemical composition. Many cutting-edge analytical technologies have been introduced to evaluate the quality of medicinal plants and significant amount of measurement data has been produced. Chemometric techniques provide a good opportunity for mining more useful chemical information from the original data. Then, the application of chemometrics in the field of medicinal plants is spontaneous and necessary. Comprehensive methods and hyphenated techniques associated with chemometrics used for extracting useful information and supplying various methods of data processing are now more and more widely used in medicinal plants, among which chemometrics resolution methods and principal component analysis (PCA) are most commonly used techniques. This review focuses on the recent various important analytical techniques, important chemometrics tools and interpretation of results by PCA, and applications of chemometrics in quality evaluation of medicinal plants in the authenticity, efficacy and consistency.

  20. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

  1. A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model's shock structure and steady...

  2. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Das, Paritosh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios” of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their third year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.

  3. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2012-09-15

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  4. LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

    2016-01-01

    We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

  5. Constraining f(T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis. f(T) cosmology and BBN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capozziello, S. [Universita di Napoli ' ' Federico II' ' , Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant' Angelo, Dipartimento di Fisica ' ' E. Pancini' ' , Napoli (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Napoli (Italy); Gran Sasso Science Institute, L' Aquila (Italy); Lambiase, G. [University of Salerno, Dipartimento di Fisica E.R. Cainaiello, Fisciano (Italy); INFN, Gruppo Collegato di Salerno, Sezione di Napoli, Fisciano (Italy); Saridakis, E.N. [National Technical University of Athens, Department of Physics, Athens (Greece); Baylor University, CASPER, Physics Department, Waco, TX (United States)

    2017-09-15

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f(T) gravity. The three most studied viable f(T) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f(T) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints. (orig.)

  6. Constraining f( T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis. f(T) cosmology and BBN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capozziello, S.; Lambiase, G.; Saridakis, E. N.

    2017-09-01

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f( T) gravity. The three most studied viable f( T) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f( T) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints.

  7. Constraining f(T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis: f(T) cosmology and BBN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capozziello, S; Lambiase, G; Saridakis, E N

    2017-01-01

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f ( T ) gravity. The three most studied viable f ( T ) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f ( T ) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints.

  8. Constraining f(T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis. f(T) cosmology and BBN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capozziello, S.; Lambiase, G.; Saridakis, E.N.

    2017-01-01

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f(T) gravity. The three most studied viable f(T) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f(T) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints. (orig.)

  9. FCNC Bs and Λb transitions: Standard model versus a single universal extra dimension scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colangelo, P.; De Fazio, F.; Ferrandes, R.; Pham, T. N.

    2008-01-01

    We study the flavor changing neutral current B s →φγ, φνν and Λ b →Λγ, Λνν transitions in the standard model and in a scenario with a single universal extra dimension. In particular, we focus on the present knowledge of the hadronic uncertainties and on possible improvements. We discuss how the measurements of these modes can be used to constrain the new parameter involved in the extra-dimensional scenario, the radius R of the extra dimension, completing the information available from B-factories. The rates of these b→s induced decays are within the reach of new experiments, such as LHCb.

  10. Half-life expectations for neutrinoless double beta decay in standard and nonstandard scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Shao-Feng; Rodejohann, Werner; Zuber, Kai

    2017-09-01

    We investigate the half-life expectations for neutrinoless double beta decay by applying statistical distributions of neutrino mixing observables, neutrino mass constraints from cosmology and nuclear matrix elements. The analysis is performed in the standard scenario of active Majorana neutrino exchange, when light sterile neutrinos are added, and within TeV-scale left-right symmetric frameworks. The latter two cases correspond to a modified phenomenology of double beta decay for a normal and inverted mass ordering, and thus different discovery potential for future experiments.

  11. A see-saw scenario of an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Dinh, Dinh Nguyen; Văn, Phi Quang; Vân, Nguyen Thi Hông

    2016-01-01

    A see-saw scenario for an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model is presented. As before, the see-saw mechanism can be realized in several models of different types depending on different ways of neutrino mass generation corresponding to the introduction of new fields with different symmetry structures. In the present paper, a general desription of all these see-saw types is made with a more detailed investigation on type-I models. As within the original see-saw mechanism, the symmetry structure of the standard model fields decides the number and the symmetry structure of the new fields. In a model considered here, the scalar sector consists of three standard-model-Higgs-like iso-doublets ($SU_L(2)$-doublets) forming an $A_4$ triplet. The latter is a superposition of three mass-eigen states, one of which could be identified with the recently discovered Higgs boson. A possible relation to the still-deliberated 750 GeV diphoton resonance at the 13 TeV LHC collisions is also discussed. In the lepton sector, the ...

  12. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bird, L.; Chapman, C.; Logan, J.; Sumner, J.; Short, W.

    2010-05-01

    This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.

  13. Security analysis of standards-driven communication protocols for healthcare scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Massimiliano; Pugliese, Rosario; Tiezzi, Francesco

    2012-12-01

    The importance of the Electronic Health Record (EHR), that stores all healthcare-related data belonging to a patient, has been recognised in recent years by governments, institutions and industry. Initiatives like the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise (IHE) have been developed for the definition of standard methodologies for secure and interoperable EHR exchanges among clinics and hospitals. Using the requisites specified by these initiatives, many large scale projects have been set up for enabling healthcare professionals to handle patients' EHRs. The success of applications developed in these contexts crucially depends on ensuring such security properties as confidentiality, authentication, and authorization. In this paper, we first propose a communication protocol, based on the IHE specifications, for authenticating healthcare professionals and assuring patients' safety. By means of a formal analysis carried out by using the specification language COWS and the model checker CMC, we reveal a security flaw in the protocol thus demonstrating that to simply adopt the international standards does not guarantee the absence of such type of flaws. We then propose how to emend the IHE specifications and modify the protocol accordingly. Finally, we show how to tailor our protocol for application to more critical scenarios with no assumptions on the communication channels. To demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of our protocols we have fully implemented them.

  14. The Performance of Standardized Patients in Portraying Clinical Scenarios in Speech-Language Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Anne E.; Davidson, Bronwyn J.; Theodoros, Deborah G.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Standardized patients (SPs) are frequently included in the clinical preparation of students in the health sciences. An acknowledged benefit of using SPs is the opportunity to provide a standardized method by which students can demonstrate and develop their competency. Relatively little is known, however, about the capacity of SPs to…

  15. Updated BBN bounds on the cosmological lepton asymmetry for non-zero θ13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangano, Gianpiero; Miele, Gennaro; Pastor, Sergio; Pisanti, Ofelia; Sarikas, Srdjan

    2012-01-01

    We discuss the bounds on the cosmological lepton number from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), in light of recent evidences for a large value of the neutrino mixing angle θ 13 , sin 2 θ 13 ≥0.01 at 2σ. The largest asymmetries for electron and μ, τ neutrinos compatible with 4 He and 2 H primordial yields are computed versus the neutrino mass hierarchy and mixing angles. The flavour oscillation dynamics is traced till the beginning of BBN and neutrino distributions after decoupling are numerically computed. The latter contains in general, non-thermal distortion due to the onset of flavour oscillations driven by solar squared mass difference in the temperature range where neutrino scatterings become inefficient to enforce thermodynamical equilibrium. Depending on the value of θ 13 , this translates into a larger value for the effective number of neutrinos, N eff . Upper bounds on this parameter are discussed for both neutrino mass hierarchies. Values for N eff which are large enough to be detectable by the Planck experiment are found only for the (presently disfavoured) range sin 2 θ 13 ≤0.01.

  16. The universe in a box - Thermal effects in the standard cold dark matter scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cen, R. Y.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Jameson, Anthony; Liu, Feng

    1990-01-01

    An attempt is made to compute the evolution of a representative piece of the universe at a minimal resolution of a flux-based mesh code coupled with a standard particle-mesh dark matter code. It is found that, on scales greater than 1/h Mpc, dark matter is more clumped than gas. Bremsstrahlung and Compton cooling are unimportant on scales of 1 Mpc or greater. Shocks gradually heat the gas, leaving most of it in voids at T = 10 exp 3.5 K or less, but with a small fraction reaching T = 10 million K or more. Ultraviolet and soft X-ray emission from the heated gas is significant, providing an important part of the background radiation field and significant ionizing of the intergalactic medium. The mean induced Delta T/T for microwave background radiation in the Rayleigh-Jeans part of the spectrum is 1.1 x 10 to the -6th with fluctuation of 5.6 x 10 to the -7th on arcmin scales and a mean y parameter of 5.5 x 10 to the -7th, which is potentially detectable by the COBE satellite.

  17. Comparing three CPR feedback devices and standard BLS in a single rescuer scenario: a randomised simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapletal, Bernhard; Greif, Robert; Stumpf, Dominik; Nierscher, Franz Josef; Frantal, Sophie; Haugk, Moritz; Ruetzler, Kurt; Schlimp, Christoph; Fischer, Henrik

    2014-04-01

    Efficiently performed basic life support (BLS) after cardiac arrest is proven to be effective. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is strenuous and rescuers' performance declines rapidly over time. Audio-visual feedback devices reporting CPR quality may prevent this decline. We aimed to investigate the effect of various CPR feedback devices on CPR quality. In this open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial we compared three CPR feedback devices (PocketCPR, CPRmeter, iPhone app PocketCPR) with standard BLS without feedback in a simulated scenario. 240 trained medical students performed single rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8min. Effective compression (compressions with correct depth, pressure point and sufficient decompression) as well as compression rate, flow time fraction and ventilation parameters were compared between the four groups. Study participants using the PocketCPR performed 17±19% effective compressions compared to 32±28% with CPRmeter, 25±27% with the iPhone app PocketCPR, and 35±30% applying standard BLS (PocketCPR vs. CPRmeter p=0.007, PocketCPR vs. standard BLS p=0.001, others: ns). PocketCPR and CPRmeter prevented a decline in effective compression over time, but overall performance in the PocketCPR group was considerably inferior to standard BLS. Compression depth and rate were within the range recommended in the guidelines in all groups. While we found differences between the investigated CPR feedback devices, overall BLS quality was suboptimal in all groups. Surprisingly, effective compression was not improved by any CPR feedback device compared to standard BLS. All feedback devices caused substantial delay in starting CPR, which may worsen outcome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

  19. Dynamical 3-Space Predicts Hotter Early Universe: Resolves CMB-BBN 7-Li and 4-He Abundance Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed abundances of 7 Li and 4 He are significantly inconsistent with the pre- dictions from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN when using the CDM cosmolog- ical model together with the value for B h 2 = 0 : 0224 0 : 0009 from WMAP CMB fluctuations, with the value from BBN required to fit observed abundances being 0 : 009 < B h 2 < 0 : 013. The dynamical 3-space theory is shown to predict a 20% hot- ter universe in the radiation-dominated epoch, which then results in a remarkable parameter-free agreement between the BBN and the WMAP value for B h 2 . The dy- namical 3-space also gives a parameter-free fit to the supernova redshift data, and pre- dicts that the flawed CDM model would require = 0 : 73 and M = 0 : 27 to fit the 3-space dynamics Hubble expansion, and independently of the supernova data. These results amount to the discovery of new physics for the early universe that is matched by numerous other successful observational and experimental tests.

  20. Dynamical 3-Space Predicts Hotter Early Universe: Resolves CMB-BBN 7-Li and 4-He Abundance Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed abundances of 7-Li and 4-He are significantly inconsistent with the predictions from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN when using the $Lambda$CDM cosmological model together with the value for $Omega_B h^2 = 0.0224pm0.0009$ from WMAP CMB fluctuations, with the value from BBN required to fit observed abundances being $0.009 < Omega_B h^2 < 0.013$. The dynamical 3-space theory is shown to predict a 20% hotter universe in the radiation-dominated epoch, which then results in a remarkable parameter-free agreement between the BBN and the WMAP value for $Omega_B h^2$. The dynamical 3-space also gives a parameter-free fit to the supernova redshift data, and predicts that the flawed $Lambda$CDM model would require $Omega_Lambda = 0.73$ and $Omega_M = 0.27$ to fit the 3-space dynamics Hubble expansion, and independently of the supernova data. These results amount to the discovery of new physics for the early universe that is matched by numerous other successful observational and experimental tests.

  1. [Variation in closeness to reality of standardized resuscitation scenarios : Effects on the success of cognitive learning of medical students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaumberg, A

    2015-04-01

    Simulation often relies on a case-based learning approach and is used as a teaching tool for a variety of audiences. The knowledge transfer goes beyond the mere exchange of soft skills and practical abilities and also includes practical knowledge and decision-making behavior; however, verification of knowledge or practical skills seldom unfolds during simulations. Simulation-based learning seems to affect many learning domains and can, therefore, be considered to be multifactorial in nature. At present, studies examining the effects of learning environments with varying levels of reality on the cognitive long-term retention of students are lacking. The present study focused on the question whether case scenarios with varying levels of reality produce differences in the cognitive long-term retention of students, in particular with regard to the learning dimensions knowledge, understanding and transfer. The study was conducted on 153 students in the first clinical semester at the Justus-Liebig University of Giessen. Students were randomly selected and subsequently assigned, also in a random fashion, to two practice groups, i.e. realistic and unrealistic. In both groups the students were presented with standardized case scenarios consisting of three case studies, which were accurately defined with a case report containing a detailed description of each scenario and all relevant values so as to ensure identical conditions for both groups. The unrealistic group sat in an unfurnished practice room as a learning environment. The realistic group sat in a furnished learning environment with various background pictures and ambient noise. Students received examination questions before, immediately following and 14 days after the practice. Examination questions were identical at each of the three time points, classified into three learning dimensions following Bloom's taxonomy and evaluated. Furthermore, examination questions were supplemented by a questionnaire concerning the

  2. Conformal complex singlet extension of the Standard Model: scenario for dark matter and a second Higgs boson

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhi-Wei; Steele, T.G. [Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Saskatchewan,116 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5E2 (Canada); Hanif, T. [Department of Theoretical Physics, University of Dhaka,Dhaka-1000 (Bangladesh); Mann, R.B. [Department of Physics, University of Waterloo,Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1 (Canada)

    2016-08-09

    We consider a conformal complex singlet extension of the Standard Model with a Higgs portal interaction. The global U(1) symmetry of the complex singlet can be either broken or unbroken and we study each scenario. In the unbroken case, the global U(1) symmetry protects the complex singlet from decaying, leading to an ideal cold dark matter candidate with approximately 100 GeV mass along with a significant proportion of thermal relic dark matter abundance. In the broken case, we have developed a renormalization-scale optimization technique to significantly narrow the parameter space and in some situations, provide unique predictions for all the model’s couplings and masses. We have found there exists a second Higgs boson with a mass of approximately 550 GeV that mixes with the known 125 GeV Higgs with a large mixing angle sin θ≈0.47 consistent with current experimental limits. The imaginary part of the complex singlet in the broken case could provide axion dark matter for a wide range of models. Upon including interactions of the complex scalar with an additional vector-like fermion, we explore the possibility of a diphoton excess in both the unbroken and the broken cases. In the unbroken case, the model can provide a natural explanation for diphoton excess if extra terms are introduced providing extra contributions to the singlet mass. In the broken case, we find a set of coupling solutions that yield a second Higgs boson of mass 720 GeV and an 830 GeV extra vector-like fermion F, which is able to address the 750 GeV LHC diphoton excess. We also provide criteria to determine the symmetry breaking pattern in both the Higgs and hidden sectors.

  3. 68Ga-BBN-RGD PET/CT for GRPR and Integrin αvβ3 Imaging in Patients with Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingjing; Mao, Feng; Niu, Gang; Peng, Li; Lang, Lixin; Li, Fang; Ying, Hongyan; Wu, Huanwen; Pan, Boju; Zhu, Zhaohui; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: This study was to assess a gastrin-releasing peptide receptor (GRPR) and integrin αvβ3 dual targeting tracer 68 Ga-BBN-RGD for positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) imaging of breast cancer and metastasis. Materials and Methods: Twenty-two female patients were recruited either with suspected breast cancer on screening mammography (n = 16) or underwent breast cancer radical mastectomy (n = 6). All the 22 patients underwent PET/CT at 30-45 min after intravenous injection of 68 Ga-BBN-RGD. Eleven out of 22 patients also accepted 68 Ga-BBN PET/CT within 2 weeks for comparison. A final diagnosis was made based on the histopathologic examination of surgical excision or biopsy. Results: Both the primary cancer and metastases showed positive 68 Ga-BBN-RGD accumulation. The T/B ratios of 68 Ga-BBN-RGD accumulation were 2.10 to 9.44 in primary cancer and 1.10 to 3.71 in axillary lymph node metastasis, 3.80 to 10.7 in distant lymph nodes, 2.70 to 5.35 in lung metastasis and 3.17 to 22.8 in bone metastasis, respectively. For primary lesions, the SUVmax from 68 Ga-BBN-RGD PET in ER positive group was higher than that in ER negative group (P breast cancer. 68 Ga-BBN-RGD PET/CT may be of great value in discerning both primary breast cancers, axillary lymph node metastasis and distant metastases.

  4. Comparative analyses of B{yields}K{sub 2}{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} in the standard model and new physics scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Run-Hui [Institute of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China); Yonsei Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Physics and IPAP; Lue, Cai-Dian [Institute of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Wei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2010-12-15

    We analyze the B {yields} K{sub 2}{sup *}({yields} K{pi})l{sup +}l{sup -} (with l=e,{mu},{tau}) decay in the standard model and two new physics scenarios: vector-like quark model and family non-universal Z{sup '} model. We derive the differential angular distributions of the quasi-four-body decay, using the recently calculated form factors in the perturbative QCD approach. Branching ratios, polarizations, forward-backward asymmetries and transversity amplitudes are predicted, from which we find a promising prospective to observe this channel on the future experiment. We also update the constraints on effective Wilson coefficients and/or free parameters in these two new physics scenarios by making use of the experimental data of B{yields}K{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} and b{yields}sl{sup +}l{sup -}. Their impact on B{yields}K{sub 2}{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} is subsequently explored and in particular the zero-crossing point for the forward-backward asymmetry in these new physics scenarios can sizably deviate from the SM scenario. In addition we also generalize the analysis to a similar mode B{sub s}{yields}f{sup '}{sub 2}(1525)({yields}K{sup +}K{sup -})l{sup +}l{sup -}. (orig.)

  5. Variation of fundamental constants and the triple-alpha reaction in Population III stars and BBN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coc, Alain

    2012-01-01

    The effect of variations of the fundamental constants on the thermonuclear rate of the triple alpha reaction, 4 He(αα, γ) 12 C, that bridges the gap between 4 He and 12 C is investigated. We have followed the evolution of 15 and 60 M sun zero metallicity stellar models, up to the end of core helium burning. The calculated oxygen and carbon abundances resulting from helium burning can then be used to constrain the variation of the fundamental constants. To investigate the effect of an enhanced triple alpha reaction rate in Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis, we first evaluated Standard Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis CNO production with a network of more than 400 reactions using the TALYS code to calculate missing rates.

  6. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  7. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  8. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  9. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  10. Optimization, biological evaluation and microPET imaging of copper-64-labeled bombesin agonists, [64Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH2], in a prostate tumor xenografted mouse model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, Stephanie R.; Nanda, Prasanta; Rold, Tammy L.; Sieckman, Gary L.; Figueroa, Said D.; Hoffman, Timothy J.; Jurisson, Silvia S.; Smith, Charles J.

    2010-01-01

    Gastrin-releasing peptide receptors (GRPr) are a member of the bombesin (BBN) receptor family. GRPr are expressed in high numbers on specific human cancers, including human prostate cancer. Therefore, copper-64 ( 64 Cu) radiolabeled BBN(7-14)NH 2 conjugates could have potential for diagnosis of human prostate cancer via positron-emission tomography (PET). The aim of this study was to produce [ 64 Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugates for prostate cancer imaging, where X=pharmacokinetic modifier (beta-alanine, 5-aminovaleric acid, 6-aminohexanoic acid, 8-aminooctanoic acid, 9-aminonanoic acid or para-aminobenzoic acid) and NO2A=1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4-diacetic acid [a derivative of NOTA (1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4,7-triacetic acid)]. Methods: [(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] Conjugates were synthesized by solid-phase peptide synthesis (SPPS), after which NOTA was added via manual conjugation. The new peptide conjugates were radiolabeled with 64 Cu radionuclide. The receptor-binding affinity was determined in human prostate PC-3 cells, and tumor-targeting efficacy was determined in PC-3 tumor-bearing severely combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice. Whole-body maximum intensity microPET/CT images of PC-3 tumor-bearing SCID mice were obtained 18 h postinjection (pi). Results: Competitive binding assays in PC-3 cells indicated high receptor-binding affinity for the [NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] and [ nat Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugates. In vivo biodistribution studies of the [ 64 Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugates at 1, 4 and 24 h pi showed very high uptake of the tracer in GRPr-positive tissue with little accumulation and retention in nontarget tissues. High-quality, high-contrast microPET images were obtained, with xenografted tumors being clearly visible at 18 h pi. Conclusions: NO2A chelator sufficiently stabilizes copper(II) radiometal under in vivo conditions, producing conjugates with very high uptake and retention in targeted GRPr. Preclinical evaluation of these

  11. Chemoprevention with green propolis green propolis extracted in L-lysine versus carcinogenesis promotion with L-lysine in N-Butyl-N-[4-hydroxybutyl] nitrosamine (BBN induced rat bladder cancer Quimioprevenção com própolis verde extraído em L-Lisina versus promoção da carcinogênese como L-Lisina em ratos induzidos ao câncer de bexiga pelo N-Butyl-N-[4-hydroxybutyl] nitrosamine (BBN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conceição Aparecida Dornelas

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To determine the effects of green propolis extracted in L-lysine (WSDP and of L- lysine for 40 weeks on induced rat bladder carcinogenesis. METHODS: The animals (groups I, II, III, IV, V and VI received BBN during 14 weeks. Group I was treated with propolis 30 days prior received BBN, and then these animals were treated daily with propolis; Groups II and III was treated with subcutaneous and oral propolis (respectively concurrently with BBN. The animals of Group IV were treated L-lysine; Group V received water subcutaneous; and Group VI received only to BBN. Among the animals not submitted to carcinogenesis induction, Group VII received propolis, Group VIII received L-lysine and Group IX received water. RESULTS: The carcinoma incidence in Group I was lower than that of control (Group VI. The carcinoma multiplicity in Group IV was greater than in Group VI. All animals treated with L-lysine developed carcinomas, and they were also more invasive in Group IV than in controls. On the other hand, Group VIII showed no bladder lesions. CONCLUSION: The WSDP is chemopreventive against rat bladder carcinogenesis, if administered 30 days prior to BBN , and that L-lysine causes promotion of bladder carcinogenesis.OBJETIVO: Determinar os efeitos da própolis verde extraída em L - Lisina (WSDP e da L-Lisina por 40 semanas em ratos induzidos a carcinogênese de bexiga. MÉTODOS: Os animais (grupos I, II, III, IV, V e VI receberam BBN por 14 semanas. O grupo I foi tratado com própolis 30 dias antes de receber BBN e em seguida estes animais foram tratados diariamente com própolis; Os grupos II e III foram tratados com própolis subcutânea e oral (respectivamente e concorretemente com BBN. Os animais do grupo IV foram tratados com L- Lisina; o grupo V recebeu água subcutânea; o grupo VI recebeu apenas BBN. Entre os animais não submetidos a indução de carcinogênese, Grupo VII, receberam própolis, Grupo VIII, receberam L-Lisina e Grupo IX

  12. Comparative study of Usability of Two Patterns for Developing an Emergency Scenario recommended by International Standard Organization and Homeland Security Exercise Evaluation Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad Farhadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: A systematic approach is needed for effective coping an incident. In such a system, the preparedness is the top priority. The organization’s readiness depends on some factors, including regular exercises. To conduct a proper exercise it is necessary to have a comprehensive scenario. Despite of repetitive execution of exercises, there is no commonly accepted template for it. The present study aims at selecting preferred method for developing an emergency exercise. Methods: In the present study, ISO 22398 and HSEEP as the two common patterns were compared through quantifying their usability and chosen by AHP. A panel of crisis experts scored the usability criteria of methods and selected the preferred method. Results: The assessment of usability of both patterns revealed the preference of ISO pattern in comparison with the HSEEP pattern. The HSEEP method had the better score in learnability and satisfaction, but, the effectiveness, efficiency and total score were higher for ISO 22398. Conclusion: To develop an emergency scenario, it is necessary to follow a suitable pattern. The pattern presented by ISO 22398 is more usable in comparison with HSEEP paten.

  13. Domestic Energy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aabakken, J.; Short, W.

    2003-01-01

    This report attempts to organize and evaluate scenarios of markets and technologies that could impact renewable and distributed electricity-generating technologies during the next 20-100 years in the United States. For the purposes of this report, scenarios are defined broadly as any projection or forecast that helps illuminate the potential of Renewable Electric Technologies (RETs) in the United States. Scenarios vary widely in terms of their scope-some focus on supply of fuels or narrow segments of markets with limited timeframes, while others are broader in scope and time span. There are several factors that influence the market penetration of renewable energy and distributed generation technologies. Most notable among these are natural gas prices, technology improvements, and policy measures. Natural gas prices are important because most new generating capacity, as well as marginal generation units, generally are natural-gas fired. Assumptions about the rate of improvement in renewable and distributed generation technologies can also have a significant impact on market penetration. Finally, policy measures that support these technologies, such as tax credits or interconnection standards, can contribute to their accelerated adoption.

  14. Comparison of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technology Versus Standard Practice in Identification of Hazards at a Mass Casualty Incident Scenario by Primary Care Paramedic Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Trevor; Sibley, Aaron; Stryhn, Henrik; Hubloue, Ives

    2018-01-31

    Introduction The proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) has the potential to change the situational awareness of incident commanders allowing greater scene safety. The aim of this study was to compare UAV technology to standard practice (SP) in hazard identification during a simulated multi-vehicle motor collision (MVC) in terms of time to identification, accuracy and the order of hazard identification. A prospective observational cohort study was conducted with 21 students randomized into UAV or SP group, based on a MVC with 7 hazards. The UAV group remained at the UAV ground station while the SP group approached the scene. After identifying hazards the time and order was recorded. The mean time (SD, range) to identify the hazards were 3 minutes 41 seconds (1 minute 37 seconds, 1 minute 48 seconds-6 minutes 51 seconds) and 2 minutes 43 seconds (55 seconds, 1 minute 43 seconds-4 minutes 38 seconds) in UAV and SP groups corresponding to a mean difference of 58 seconds (P=0.11). A non-parametric permutation test showed a significant (P=0.04) difference in identification order. Both groups had 100% accuracy in hazard identification with no statistical difference in time for hazard identification. A difference was found in the identification order of hazards. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 4).

  15. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apte, Michael G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dutton, Spencer M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berkeley, Pam M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Spears, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  16. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario : planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework : to develop a scenario planning approach tailored t...

  17. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  18. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  19. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational l...... theoretical understanding of scenario planning while simultaneously presenting a more nuanced account of the individual behaviors and social dynamics underpinning organizational learning.......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...

  20. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    By: Lansdowne Technologies Inc. 1001-247 Slater Street Ottawa ON, K1P 5H9 Contractor’s Document Number: Contract Project Manager : Peter Avis... management , focusing on eliciting a Whole of Government (WoG) response. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, it is not...capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé …..... Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat

  1. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  2. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional...

  3. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...

  4. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing...... on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  5. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  6. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  7. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  8. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  9. Smoldering - The Fire Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Torero, Jose L

    2000-01-01

    There are certain fire initiation scenarios that are particularly common, one of great significance is a fire initiated from the ignition of a porous fuel. Nearly 40% of the deaths due to fire can be traced to cigarette induced smolder of upholstered furniture and the mechanisms that control the process that transforms the weak smolder reaction occurring in the cigarette to a fire are still mostly unknown. A general description of this fire scenario and a discussion of its threats is pr...

  10. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  11. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  12. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  13. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal......-based efficacy and robustness. To facilitate the colla- borative strategizing in teams, we propose a matrix with robustness and efficacy as the two axes, which we call the Parmenides Matrix. We assess the impact of the novel approach by applying it in two cases, at a govern- mental agency (German Environmental...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  14. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario......, which motivates re-statement of the claim in the first place, ultimately fails. In actuality, the field is distanced from its purported goals. The “dismal” state of theory encourages scholars to adopt theory that is not necessarily tethered to a common core, which does not contribute to a shared...

  15. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  16. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  17. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  18. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  19. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  20. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  1. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  2. Grand unified brane world scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Masato; Blaschke, Filip; Eto, Minoru; Sakai, Norisuke

    2017-12-01

    We present a field theoretical model unifying grand unified theory (GUT) and brane world scenario. As a concrete example, we consider S U (5 ) GUT in 4 +1 dimensions where our 3 +1 dimensional spacetime spontaneously arises on five domain walls. A field-dependent gauge kinetic term is used to localize massless non-Abelian gauge fields on the domain walls and to assure the charge universality of matter fields. We find the domain walls with the symmetry breaking S U (5 )→S U (3 )×S U (2 )×U (1 ) as a global minimum and all the undesirable moduli are stabilized with the mass scale of MGUT. Profiles of massless standard model particles are determined as a consequence of wall dynamics. The proton decay can be exponentially suppressed.

  3. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  4. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  5. VoLTE Performance in Railway Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sniady, Aleksander; Sønderskov, Morten; Soler, José

    2015-01-01

    GSM-Railways (GSM-R) is the current standard for railway voice and data communication. GSM-R provides railway specific voice services, such as Railway Emergency Call (REC). GSM-R provides also the European Train Control System (ETCS), which offers in-cab signaling and Automatic Train Protection....... Examples of Railway Emergency Call and One-to-One Call are provided. Service performance, in terms of call setup times and voice transmission quality, is analyzed in simulation scenarios modelling two railway scenarios in Denmark....

  6. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  7. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther [James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  8. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-01-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  9. Quantifying Four Scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lejour, A.

    2003-10-01

    This study presents four economic scenarios for Europe until 2040. The scenarios are developed around two key uncertainties: international cooperation and institutional reforms. In the scenarios Strong Europe (SE) and Global Economy (GE), international cooperation is prominent, while the other scenarios, Regional Communities (RC) and Transatlantic Market (TM), feature limited international cooperation. Public institutions are important in Strong Europe and Regional Communities. In Global Economy and Transatlantic Market the role of the public sector is limited. There is more room for private initiatives in these scenarios. To illustrate the scenarios, this document presents quantitative developments described with an applied general equilibrium model developed at CPB: WorldScan. By using this model we are able to derive consistency between developments in the scenarios and to apply common economic mechanisms. The variation in the outcomes for the scenarios is derived by introducing differences in exogenous trends. This document explains and motivates these differences

  10. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature...

  11. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  12. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  13. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  14. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  16. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  17. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  18. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  19. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  20. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...... insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  1. Light dark Higgs boson in minimal sub-GeV dark matter scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmé, Luc; Rao, Soumya; Roszkowski, Leszek

    2018-03-01

    Minimal scenarios with light (sub-GeV) dark matter whose relic density is obtained from thermal freeze-out must include new light mediators. In particular, a very well-motivated case is that of a new "dark" massive vector gauge boson mediator. The mass term for such mediator is most naturally obtained by a "dark Higgs mechanism" which leads to the presence of an often long-lived dark Higgs boson whose mass scale is the same as that of the mediator. We study the phenomenology and experimental constraints on two minimal, self-consistent dark sectors that include such a light dark Higgs boson. In one the dark matter is a pseudo-Dirac fermion, in the other a complex scalar. We find that the constraints from BBN and CMB are considerably relaxed in the framework of such minimal dark sectors. We present detection prospects for the dark Higgs boson in existing and projected proton beam-dump experiments. We show that future searches at experiments like Xenon1T or LDMX can probe all the relevant parameter space, complementing the various upcoming indirect constraints from astrophysical observations.

  2. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  3. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  4. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  5. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...

  6. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  7. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  8. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios provide useful insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional...

  9. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  10. Challenges to the standard model of Big Bang nucleosynthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steigman, G.

    1993-01-01

    Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides a unique probe of the early evolution of the Universe and a crucial test of the consistency of the standard hot Big Bang cosmological model. Although the primordial abundances of 2 H, 3 He, 4 He, and 7 Li inferred from current observational data are in agreement with those predicted by Big Bang nucleosynthesis, recent analysis has severely restricted the consistent range for the nucleon-to-photon ratio: 3.7 ≤ η 10 ≤ 4.0. Increased accuracy in the estimate of primordial 4 he and observations of Be and B in Pop II stars are offering new challenges to the standard model and suggest that no new light particles may be allowed (N ν BBN ≤ 3.0, where N ν is the number of equivalent light neutrinos). 23 refs

  11. The BBN Knowledge Acquisition Project: Phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-11-01

    2.3.1 Window Display Operations 13 3. Extended Classification in KREME 15 4. KREME and SFL in CLOS 19 4.1 A Meta-class based Frame system 19 4.1.1...Display Operations - This command brings up a menu of operations on the window, as described below. 2.3.1 Window Display Operations Each window can, in

  12. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  13. Application Scenarios and Deployment Domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niamut, O.A.; Engström, A.; Kochale, A.; Macq, J.; Thomas, G.; Zorić, G.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes the impact of deploying the format-agnostic media approach, along the lines of three deployment domains and the end user perspective. The chapter elaborates on a series of potential application scenarios. These application scenarios describe features of a potential

  14. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  15. Wireless Sensor Networks: Performance Analysis in Indoor Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks in indoor scenarios. Most of the considered networks are formed by nodes using the Zigbee communication protocol. For comparison, we also analyze networks based on the proprietary standard Z-Wave. Two main groups of network scenarios are proposed: (i scenarios with direct transmissions between the remote nodes and the network coordinator, and (ii scenarios with routers, which relay the packets between the remote nodes and the coordinator. The sensor networks of interest are evaluated considering different performance metrics. In particular, we show how the received signal strength indication (RSSI behaves in the considered scenarios. Then, the network behavior is characterized in terms of end-to-end delay and throughput. In order to confirm the experiments, analytical and simulation results are also derived.

  16. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    -based reserve, qualitatively, to a Value-at-Risk-based calculation of solvency capital requirements. This brings out perspectives for our results in relation to qualifying the standard formula of Solvency II or using a scenario-based approach in internal models. Our results are powerful for various applications...... of a policyholder as active and disabled, respectively, are low at the same time, and (c) mortality intensities of the policyholders in a portfolio are low at the same time. The set from which the worst-case scenario is taken reflects the dependence structure and allows us to relate the worst-case scenario...... and the techniques are non-standard in control theory, exactly because our worst-case scenario is deterministic and not adapted to the stochastic development of the portfolio. The formalistic results are exemplified in a series of numerical studies....

  17. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information......; this includes available statistical information and a short survey of emerging technologies. A scenario for Denmark is presented and consequences are discussed....

  18. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  19. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  20. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  1. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  2. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios at ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    For vector boson fusion (VBF) processes, qq → qqh, the suitable modes are: h → γγ,h → ττ → l+ jets. For mA in the range of 90–130 GeV/c2 the above channels ... to tan β values, the effective value defined through relation: σ × BR ∼ tan2 βeff, is a significant observable for global fit to determine SUSY parameters. Figure 4.

  3. Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab

    2008-07-01

    This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.

  4. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  5. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  6. Future scenarios of energy for Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga, Daniel; Cadena, Angela I

    2000-01-01

    The author includes topics as, requirements for the scenarios; process of scenarios, certainty and uncertainty to the horizon of the 2020, definition of axis for the histories and energy scenario for Colombia

  7. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  8. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  9. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  10. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  11. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  12. Emissions scenario: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr Castles and Mr Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol. 14, no. 2 and 3, and no. 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both ''plausible and well attested in economic history'' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  13. Emissions scenarios: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol 14, no 2 and 3, and no 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both 'plausible and well attested in economic history' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  14. Analysing Scenarios of Cell Population System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Vinogradova

    2014-01-01

    allowed us to identify the sets of parameters of the mathematical model, which provide a fairly favorable scenario. In this scenario, the trajectory of the population system starting at the point corresponding to the standard initial cultivating conditions comes in a stable node, with the normal cells to be dominated.

  15. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  16. EON UK CORPORATE SCENARIO PLANNING 2020

    OpenAIRE

    Bedi, Rahul; Singh, Paminder; Lee, Chih-Shan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This research project sets out to explore how scenarios can help to develop strategy in conditions of uncertainty. It suggests that scenarios can be used as intermediary objects to discuss alternative scenarios and generate new strategic approaches. The paper sets to explore how scenario planning is linked to strategy examining a practical application of scenario planning at EON, worlds largest privately owned energy provider. The purpose of this intervention in EON was...

  17. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  18. Emergent physics: Fermi point scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Volovik, G. E.

    2008-01-01

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally 4-dimensional; Universe is naturally flat; cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; `quantum gravity' canno...

  19. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  20. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  1. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  3. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  4. TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

  5. Scenario testing using formal ontologies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Harmse, HF

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available project that has been done for a South African hotel group where scenario testing has been employed to detect and rectify errors during the requirements phase of the SDLC. In the hospitality industry the business requirements around calculating the rate.... Firstly a flat rate can be charged across all rooms in the hotel. Secondly the rate can be charged based on the number of guests who form part of the booking. In the hospitality industry this is often referred to as PAX. Lastly the rate can be determined...

  6. Hadronic decay of late-decaying particles and big-bang nucleosynthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawasaki, Masahiro [Research Center for the Early Universe, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan)]. E-mail: masahiro_kawasaki@mac.com; Kohri, Kazunori [Department of Earth and Space Science, Osaka University, Osaka 560-0043 (Japan); Moroi, Takeo [Department of Physics, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan)

    2005-10-06

    We study the big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) scenario with late-decaying exotic particles with lifetime longer than {approx}1 s. With a late-decaying particle in the early universe, predictions of the standard BBN scenario can be significantly altered. Therefore, we derive constraints on its primordial abundance. We pay particular attention to hadronic decay modes of such particles. We see that the non-thermal production process of D, {sup 3}He and {sup 6}Li provides a stringent upper bound on the primordial abundance of late-decaying particles with hadronic branching ratio.

  7. Evaluation of World Energy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery I. Salygin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available What are the future global systems developments? It remains one the biggest unknown, especially in terms of energy, as it is globally considered as both cause and solution for multiple problems of the humanity. Therefore, nowadays a number of experts are exploring driving forces, critical uncertainties and unknowns that have an influence on future energy systems development. This article aims at providing a brief investigation of existing world energy scenarios that cover the range of plausible outcomes of future global energy system development. Those are represented by International Energy Agency, World Energy Council, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and others. The analysis covers both qualitative and quantitative indicators of the world energy system development that provide for future worldview formation. The article looks into various approaches to energy system development forecasting and scenario building employed by the abovementioned organisations, and discovers the motives for making assumptions as the means of attaining internal targets and the consequences of the distinction of individual attitude to the development trends within the expert community. The current assessment implies grouping of the most advanced of the existing energy system development models, identification their advantages and disadvantages, and shows differences in modeling approaches used in a number of specialized international organisations.

  8. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  9. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  10. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. M. Kamal Uddin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future.

  11. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, A F M Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, Am

    2013-04-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future.

  12. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  13. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  14. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  15. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  16. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  17. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  18. Safety in Laboratories: Indian Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Mustafa, Ajaz; Farooq, A. Jan; Qadri, GJ; S. A., Tabish

    2008-01-01

    Health and safety in clinical laboratories is becoming an increasingly important subject as a result of emergence of highly infectious diseases such as Hepatitis and HIV. A cross sectional study was carried out to study the safety measures being adopted in clinical laboratories of India. Heads of laboratories of teaching hospitals of India were subjected to a standardized, pretested questionnaire. Response rate was 44.8%. only 60% of laboratories had person in-charge of safety in laboratory. ...

  19. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...... by practicians in relation to the scenarios. The scenario 'Naturalness' requires a change of attitude among food producers and society in general. A big challenge for the Danish food industry is that they must accept that its primary role will change from being an important exporting industry to an industry...

  20. HYPERSPECTRAL ANOMALY DETECTION IN URBAN SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Rejas Ayuga

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR, shortwave infrared (SWIR and thermal infrared (TIR from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain and San José (Costa Rica respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  1. Numerically investigating the emergent cyclic inflation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duhe, William; Biswas, Tirthabir

    2014-01-01

    We provide a comprehensive numerical study of the emergent cyclic inflation scenario. This is a scenario where instead of traditional monotonic slow roll inflation, the universe expands over numerous short asymmetric cycles due to the production of entropy via interactions among different species. This is one of the very few scenarios of inflation that provides a non-singular geodesically complete space-time and does not require any ‘reheating’ mechanism. (paper)

  2. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2006-10-01

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  3. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  4. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  5. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  6. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...

  7. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  8. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  9. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  10. Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avihay Cohen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

  11. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  12. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    2005-01-01

    We propose a Software Architecture Reliability Analysis (SARA) approach that benefits from both reliability engineering and scenario-based software architecture analysis to provide an early reliability analysis of the software architecture. SARA makes use of failure scenarios that are prioritized

  13. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  14. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  15. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  16. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  17. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  18. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions Scenarios Dataset Version 1.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions Scenarios Dataset Version 1.1 consists of 40 global and...

  19. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  20. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  1. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  2. Empirical Studies in Information Visualization: Seven Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Heidi; Bertini, Enrico; Isenberg, Petra; Plaisant, Catherine; Carpendale, Sheelagh

    2012-09-01

    We take a new, scenario-based look at evaluation in information visualization. Our seven scenarios, evaluating visual data analysis and reasoning, evaluating user performance, evaluating user experience, evaluating environments and work practices, evaluating communication through visualization, evaluating visualization algorithms, and evaluating collaborative data analysis were derived through an extensive literature review of over 800 visualization publications. These scenarios distinguish different study goals and types of research questions and are illustrated through example studies. Through this broad survey and the distillation of these scenarios, we make two contributions. One, we encapsulate the current practices in the information visualization research community and, two, we provide a different approach to reaching decisions about what might be the most effective evaluation of a given information visualization. Scenarios can be used to choose appropriate research questions and goals and the provided examples can be consulted for guidance on how to design one's own study.

  3. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical......Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  4. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  5. Application of scenario analysis in the investment projects evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzaković Tomislav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Investing represents an investment in the present to achieve certain effects in the future, and risk is an essential part of the investment process. Scenario analysis involves key risk factors of the project, its sensitivity to changes in key factors and the likelihood of their changes. Scenario analysis allows us to assign probabilities to the base case, the best case and the worst case so that we can find the expected value and standard deviation of the project's NPV to get a better idea of the project's risk. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to make relevant investment decisions on the basis of the parameters of projects risk, such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The paper is based on a mathematical model, applied to a specific agricultural company. In our case, the project has a wide range of possibilities and a large potential negative value, which suggests a great risk of the project. Although the scenario analysis shows a higher risk, it is not clear if the project should be accepted or not, and therefore, it is necessary to conduct simulation analysis, in order to get reliable answers.

  6. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  7. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  8. The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

  9. Sequestered de Sitter string scenarios: soft-terms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aparicio, Luis; Cicoli, Michele; Krippendorf, Sven; Maharana, Anshuman; Muia, Francesco; Quevedo, Fernando

    2014-11-01

    We analyse soft supersymmetry breaking in type IIB de Sitter string vacua after moduli stabilisation, focussing on models in which the Standard Model is sequestered from the supersymmetry breaking sources and the spectrum of soft-terms is hierarchically smaller than the gravitino mass m 3/2. Due to this feature, these models are compatible with gauge coupling unification and TeV scale supersymmetry with no cosmological moduli problem. We determine the influence on soft-terms of concrete realisations of de Sitter vacua constructed from supersymmetric effective actions. One of these scenarios provides the first study of soft-terms for consistent string models embedded in a compact Calabi-Yau manifold with all moduli stabilised. Depending on the moduli dependence of the Kähler metric for matter fields and on the mechanism responsible to obtain a de Sitter vacuum, we find two scenarios for phenomenology: (i) a split-supersymmetry scenario where gaugino masses are suppressed with respect to scalar masses: M 1/2 ˜ m 3/2 ɛ ≪ m 0 ˜ m 3/2 ≪ m 3/2 for ɛ ˜ m 3/2 /M P ≪ 1; (ii) a typical MSSM scenario where all soft-terms are of the same order: M 1/2 ˜ m 0 ˜ m 3/2 ɛ ≪ m 3/2. Background fluxes determine the numerical coefficients of the soft-terms allowing for small variations of parameters as is necessary to confront data and to interpolate between different scenarios. We comment on different stringy origins of the μ-term and potential sources of desequestering.

  10. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  11. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  12. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  13. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  14. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  15. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  16. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  17. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  18. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  19. Generating Water Demand Scenarios Using Scaling Laws

    OpenAIRE

    Vertommen, I.; Magini, R.; Cunha, M. da Conceição

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses uncertainty inherent to water demand and proposes an approach to generate demand scenarios and calculate their probability of occurrence. Nodal water demands are modelled as correlated stochastic variables. The parameters which characterize demand vary with spatial and temporal aggregation levels. Scaling laws allow the definition of these parameters for different users and sampling rates. Different scenarios are generated by considering different combinations of demands ...

  20. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  1. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  2. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  3. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

  4. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  5. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  6. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  7. Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

  8. Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

  9. Study of Mobility Enhancements for RPL in Convergecast Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinpeng Wang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, mobility support has become an important requirement in various wireless sensor network (WSN applications. However, due to the strict resource constraints of power, memory, and processing resources in WSNs, routing protocols are mainly designed without considering mobility. Low-Power and Lossy Networks (LLNs are a special type of WSNs that tolerate data loss. The Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL is a routing protocol for LLNs that adapts IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6 and runs on top of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.15.4 standard. RPL supports multipoint-to-point traffic and point-to-multipoint traffic. In this paper we propose a mobility enhancement mechanism in order to improve data collection applications in highly mobile scenarios. The enhancement is based on signal strength monitoring and depth updating in order to improve the routing protocol performance in mobile scenarios. This enhancement helps routing protocols to cope better with topology changes and makes proactive decisions on updating next-hop neighbours. We integrated this mechanism into the RPL and compared it with other existing RPL mobility support enhancements. Results obtained through simulation using Cooja show that our work outperforms other existing RPL mobility supports on different performance metrics. Results also prove the efficiency of our proposal in highly mobile scenarios.

  10. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  11. ['Gold standard', not 'golden standard'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claassen, J.A.H.R.

    2005-01-01

    In medical literature, both 'gold standard' and 'golden standard' are employed to describe a reference test used for comparison with a novel method. The term 'gold standard' in its current sense in medical research was coined by Rudd in 1979, in reference to the monetary gold standard. In the same

  12. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  13. Exploring central opacity and asymptotic scenarios in elastic hadron scattering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagundes, D. A.; Menon, M. J.; Silva, P. V. R. G.

    2016-02-01

    In the absence of a global description of the experimental data on elastic and soft diffractive scattering from the first principles of QCD, model-independent analyses may provide useful phenomenological insights for the development of the theory in the soft sector. With that in mind, we present an empirical study on the energy dependence of the ratio X between the elastic and total cross sections; a quantity related to the evolution of the hadronic central opacity. The dataset comprises all the experimental information available on proton-proton and antiproton-proton scattering in the c.m. energy interval 5 GeV-8 TeV. Generalizing previous works, we discuss four model-independent analytical parameterizations for X, consisting of sigmoid functions composed with elementary functions of the energy and three distinct asymptotic scenarios: either the standard black disk limit or scenarios above or below that limit. Our two main conclusions are the following: (1) although consistent with the experimental data, the black disk does not represent an unique solution; (2) the data reductions favor a semi-transparent scenario, with asymptotic average value for the ratio X bar = 0.30 ± 0.12. In this case, within the uncertainty, the asymptotic regime may already be reached around 1000 TeV. We present a comparative study of the two scenarios, including predictions for the inelastic channel (diffraction dissociation) and the ratio associated with the total cross-section and the elastic slope. Details on the selection of our empirical ansatz for X and physical aspects related to a change of curvature in this quantity at 80-100 GeV, indicating the beginning of a saturation effect, are also presented and discussed.

  14. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  15. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  16. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  17. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  18. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  19. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  20. Scoping Report for a Scenario-Based Planning Protocol for Application in the Regions of Army Installations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rose, Winifred

    2000-01-01

    .... The objective of this work is to describe a regional scenario-based land use planning methodology, and explore how a standardized protocol for comprehensive military land use planning in a regional...

  1. What's Next for Big Bang Nucleosynthesis?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyburt, R.H.

    2005-01-01

    Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) plays an important role in the standard hot big bang cosmology. BBN theory is used to predict the primordial abundances of the lightest elements, hydrogen, helium and lithium. Comparison between the predicted and observationally determined light element abundances provides a general test of concordance and can be used to fix the baryon content in the universe. Measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies now supplant BBN as the premier baryometer, especially with the latest results from the WMAP satellite. With the WMAP baryon density, the test of concordance can be made even more precise. Any disagreement between theory predictions and observations requires careful discussion. Several possibilities exist to explain discrepancies; (1) observational systematics (either physical or technical) may not be properly treated in determining primordial light element abundances (2) nuclear inputs that determine the BBN predictions may have unknown systematics or may be incomplete, and (3) physics beyond that included in the standard BBN scenario may need to be included in the theory calculation. Before we can be absolutely sure new physics is warranted, points (1) and (2) must be addressed and ruled out. All of these scenarios rely on experimental or observational data to make definitive statements of their applicability and range of validity, which currently is not at the level necessary to discern between these possibilities with high confidence. Thus, new light element abundance observations and nuclear experiments are needed to probe these further. Assuming concordance is established, one can use the light element observations to explore the evolution from their primordial values. This can provide useful information on stellar evolution, cosmic rays and other nuclear astrophysics. When combined with detailed models, BBN, the CMB anisotropy and nuclear astrophysics can provide us with information about the populations

  2. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  3. Characteristics of hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Youngho; Byun, Cheol-Sik; Na, Yong-Su; Kstar Team

    2017-10-01

    We report the characteristics of hybrid scenarios under development in KSTAR. Firstly, detailed definition of the hybrid scenario in KSTAR is described and categorized according to the MHD activities. The discharges exhibiting H89 >1.9, betaN >2.2 sustained more than 5*tauE at q95 <6.5 without or mild sawtooth are classified into the hybrid regime. Fishbones and neoclassical tearing modes are usually observed in this regime. Improved confinement in this regime is also confirmed with comparing general H-mode in KSTAR. Secondly, several experimental approaches are presented to access the hybrid regime. Here, four different recipes are described. Thirdly, the origin of the confinement enhancement is discussed. The role of the plasma rotation is found to be small in experiments where electron cyclotron heating is applied to reduce the toroidal rotation. The pedestal enhancement is thought to be the main reason for the confinement improvement in KSTAR hybrid scenarios.

  4. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  5. Accounting standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stellinga, B.; Mügge, D.

    2014-01-01

    The European and global regulation of accounting standards have witnessed remarkable changes over the past twenty years. In the early 1990s, EU accounting practices were fragmented along national lines and US accounting standards were the de facto global standards. Since 2005, all EU listed

  6. A pedagogical review of electroweak symmetry breaking scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Gautam

    2011-01-01

    We review different avenues of electroweak symmetry breaking explored over the years. This constitutes a timely exercise as the world's largest and the highest energy particle accelerator, namely, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN near Geneva, has started running whose primary mission is to find the Higgs or some phenomena that mimic the effects of the Higgs, i.e. to unravel the mysteries of electroweak phase transition. In the beginning, we discuss the Standard Model Higgs mechanism. After that we review the Higgs sector of the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model. Then we take up three relatively recent ideas: little Higgs, gauge-Higgs unification and Higgsless scenarios. For the latter three cases, we first present the basic ideas and restrict our illustration to some instructive toy models to provide an intuitive feel of the underlying dynamics, and then discuss, for each of the three cases, how more realistic scenarios are constructed and how to decipher their experimental signatures. Wherever possible, we provide pedagogical details, which beginners might find useful.

  7. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  8. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  9. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  10. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  11. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  12. NSON-DK energy system scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Traber, Thure

    This report introduces the set of basic data to define scenarios with realistic yet ambitious targets for offshore wind power development in the North Sea to be used in the NSON-DK project. The assumptions are in line with those of IEA for a two degree temperature increase scenario and correspond...... with a strong recovering of coal and crude oil prices, and a pronounced increase of CO2 prices from 2020. For the countries around the North Sea that are considered, the evolution of electricity demand is projected to be strongly impacted by aggressive energy efficiency policies that lead in total to stagnating...

  13. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  14. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  15. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I...

  16. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  17. Impacts of appliance efficiency standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummel, P.; Kesselring, J.

    1992-12-01

    Federal efficiency standards for appliances limit the range of models available on the market. Utility energy efficiency programs often encourage consumers to purchase the most efficient of the remaining options, but more-stringent efficiency standards could have a significant impact on such utility efforts. Using long-run technology scenario forecasting, EPRI-sponsored researchers studied ways in which the interplay of technological change, federal standards, utility efficiency programs, and market forces could affect future energy markets for three major residential end uses: refrigeration, central air conditioning, and water heating. The researchers reached several important conclusions about utility demand-side management efforts. 2 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  19. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  20. Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, Van Thanh

    2016-01-01

    envisages a rapid shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO 2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam's neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection. (author) [fr

  1. Sports eyewear protective standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dain, Stephen J

    2016-01-01

    Eye injuries sustained during sport comprise up to 20 per cent of all injuries to the eye serious enough for medical attention to be sought. The prevalence of eye injuries in sport is not easily assessed due to lack of authoritative participation rates, so most studies report total numbers in a time period. The evidence on the proportion of all ocular injuries that are from sport is reviewed. The relative frequencies in different sports are compared in a qualitative manner and the sports with greater numbers of ocular injuries are detailed. In common with occupational injuries to the eye, most sports eye injuries are considered preventable. The hierarchy of action for occupational risk is detailed and adapted to use in a sports scenario. All the available international, regional and national standards on sports eye protection are detailed and their provisions compared. The major function of the standards is to provide adequate protection against the hazard of the sport concerned. These are detailed and compared as a function of energy transfer. Eye protection must not introduce additional or secondary hazards (for instance, fracturing into sharp fragments on impact) and not introduce features that would deter the wearing of eye protection (for instance, restricting field of view to impede playing the sport). The provisions of the standards intended to limit secondary hazards are detailed and compared. The need for future work in standards writing and the activities of the International Standardization Organization in sports eye protection are detailed. © 2016 Optometry Australia.

  2. Developing Emergency Scenario through the Project Management Body of Knowledge Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Kalatpour

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The sound planning is needed for effective implementation of an emergency exercise. The exercise planning is manifested in the scenario development process. Despite the frequent execution of exercises in the industries and the public domain, there is no uniform pattern for designing scenarios. The present paper aims at devising a new pattern based on the project management body of knowledge ( PMBOK approach. Methods: Ten principles of the PMBOK and their substructures were analyzed. The application processes were extracted in two parts the structural and executive parts. Then, these processes were translated into the its equivalent norms in the emerging scenario development process. Finally, a pattern was proposed for preparing an emergency scenario. Result: The proposed method was developed in a ten step process. Step by step implementation of these processes can help one to make an acceptable scenario. In comparison with the two most common international patterns for developing a scenario, the present method has some unique characteristics. Quality, Time, Cost and Interested Parties management are the mentioned properties. In general, the present method has some components that represent more details for users.. Conclusions : Using the project management body of knowledge approach one can develop a standard frame for developing an emergency scenario.

  3. BBN technical memorandum W1310 hydroacoustic network capability studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angell, J., LLNL

    1997-12-01

    This report summarizes work performed under contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory during the period 1 August to 30 November 1997. Four separate tasks were undertaken during this period which investigated various aspects of hydroacoustic network performance using the Hydroacoustic Coverage Assessment Model (HydroCAM). The purpose of this report is to document each of these tasks.

  4. BBN PLUM: MUC-4 Test Results and Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Weischedel, Ralph; Ayuso, Damaris; Boisen, Sean; Fox, Heidi; Gish, Herbert; Ingria, Robert

    1992-01-01

    Our mid-term to long-term goals in data extraction from text for the next one to three years are to achieve much greater portability to new languages and new domains, greater robustness, and greater scalability...

  5. Perkembangan Proses Pembuatan Biodiesel sebagai Bahan Bakar Nabati (BBN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelianingsih

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available As energy dernands increase and fossil fuel reservas are limited, research is directed towards alternative renewable fluls. A potential diesel fuel substitusi is biodiesel, obtained from fatty acids methyl esters (FAME and produced by the transesterfication reaction of triglyceride or free fatty acid (FFA of vegetable oils with short-chain alcohol, mainly methanol. Most of the currently of alcohol. Although the removal of the excess alcohol can be easily achieved by distillation, however the removal of catlyst and the by-product formed from its reaction with the reactants is complicated while several methode for glycerol purification have been reported. The disadvantages resulting from the use of a catalyst and itsremoval from theproducts can beeliminated if a non-catalytic reaction of the vegetable oils with alcohol can be realized and a simpler and cheaper process can be developed.indonesia has the opportunity to expand oil palm and other plantations such as jatropha curcas (jarak pagarin order to provide sufficient amount of crude oil for development of biodiesel industry.

  6. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  7. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE OF MEDICINES

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    LEUFKENS, H; HAAIJER-RUSKAMP, FM; BAKKER, A; DUKES, G

    1994-01-01

    Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device

  8. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  9. Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, Jarrad G

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available expansion planning exercise is undertaken. The results of this show that a considerable deployment of wind into the future should be expected where in least-cost scenarios ˜15-25 GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 (˜10-20% of the energy mix), ˜40-60 GW...

  10. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  11. Exploring Adaptation Scenarios : Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploring Adaptation Scenarios : Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Climate Change in Algeria. In Algeria, climate change is associated with modifications in land use and their interaction with water, with the result that the last 20 years have seen an increase in ... A new publication explores the ethics of these relationships.

  12. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ercin, Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2016-01-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible

  13. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  14. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  15. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  16. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  17. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  18. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  19. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  20. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  1. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  2. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  3. The Scenario of Gifted Education in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Solange Muglia; Fleith, Denise de Souza

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of gifted education in Brazil. A scenario of the education of the gifted is presented, including the official concept of giftedness as well as programs and services available to emphasize important contributions to the area. Although there are considerable advances regarding policies, practices,…

  4. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  5. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  6. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  7. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  8. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  9. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic......In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  10. Formation of Compact Ellipticals in the merging star cluster scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia Zapata, Fernanda Cecilia; Theory and star formation group

    2018-01-01

    In the last years, extended old stellar clusters have been observed. They are like globular clusters (GCs) but with larger sizes(a limit of Re=10 pc is currently seen as reasonable). These extended objects (EOs) cover a huge range of mass. Objects at the low mass end with masses comparable to normal globular clusters are called extended clusters or faint fuzzies Larsen & Brodie (2000) and objects at the high-mass end are called ultra compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs). Ultra compact dwarf galaxies are compact object with luminositys above the brigtest known GCs. UCDs are more compact than typical dwarf galaxies but with comparable luminosities. Usually, a lower mass limit of 2 × 10^6 Solar masses is applied.Fellhauer & Kroupa (2002a,b) demostrated that object like ECs, FFs and UCDs can be the remnants of the merger of star clusters complexes, this scenario is called the Merging Star Cluster Scenario. Amore concise study was performed by Bruens et al. (2009, 2011).Our work tries to explain the formation of compact elliptical(cE). These objects are a comparatively rare class of spheroidal galaxies, possessing very small Re and high central surface brightnesses (Faber 1973). cEs have the same parameters as extended objects but they are slightly larger than 100 pc and the luminosities are in the range of -11 to -12 Mag.The standard formation sceanrio of these systems proposes a galaxy origin. CEs are the result of tidal stripping and truncation of nucleated larger systems. Or they could be a natural extension of the class of elliptical galaxies to lower luminosities and smaller sizes.We want to propose a completely new formation scenario for cEs. In our project we try to model cEs in a similar way that UCDs using the merging star cluster scenario extended to much higher masses and sizes. We think that in the early Universe we might have produced sufficiently strong star bursts to form cluster complexes which merge into cEs. So far it is observationally unknown if cEs are

  11. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  12. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  13. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  14. Communications standards

    CERN Document Server

    Stokes, A V

    1986-01-01

    Communications Standards deals with the standardization of computer communication networks. This book examines the types of local area networks (LANs) that have been developed and looks at some of the relevant protocols in more detail. The work of Project 802 is briefly discussed, along with a protocol which has developed from one of the LAN standards and is now a de facto standard in one particular area, namely the Manufacturing Automation Protocol (MAP). Factors that affect the usage of networks, such as network management and security, are also considered. This book is divided into three se

  15. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  16. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  17. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  18. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  19. Achieving Standardization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    competitive, national customs and regional economic organizations are seeking to establish a standardized solution for digital reporting of customs data. However, standardization has proven hard to achieve in the socio-technical e-Customs solution. In this chapter, the authors identify and describe what has......International e-Customs is going through a standardization process. Driven by the need to increase control in the trade process to address security challenges stemming from threats of terrorists, diseases, and counterfeit products, and to lower the administrative burdens on traders to stay...... to be harmonized in order for a global company to perceive e-Customs as standardized. In doing so, they contribute an explanation of the challenges associated with using a standardization mechanism for harmonizing socio-technical information systems....

  20. Achieving Standardization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    competitive, national customs and regional economic organizations are seeking to establish a standardized solution for digital reporting of customs data. However, standardization has proven hard to achieve in the socio-technical e-Customs solution. In this chapter, the authors identify and describe what has......International e-Customs is going through a standardization process. Driven by the need to increase control in the trade process to address security challenges stemming from threats of terrorists, diseases, and counterfeit products, and to lower the administrative burdens on traders to stay...... to be harmonized in order for a global company to perceive e-Customs as standardized. In doing so, they contribute an explanation of the challenges associated with using a standardization mechanism for harmonizing socio-technical information systems....

  1. Training Standardization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the benefits of and required process and recommendations for implementing the standardization of training in the nuclear power industry in the United States and abroad. Current Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) enable training standardization in the nuclear power industry. The delivery of training through the Internet, Intranet and video over IP will facilitate this standardization and bring multiple benefits to the nuclear power industry worldwide. As the amount of available qualified and experienced professionals decreases because of retirements and fewer nuclear engineering institutions, standardized training will help increase the number of available professionals in the industry. Technology will make it possible to use the experience of retired professionals who may be interested in working part-time from a remote location. Well-planned standardized training will prevent a fragmented approach among utilities, and it will save the industry considerable resources in the long run. It will also ensure cost-effective and safe nuclear power plant operation

  2. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  3. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  4. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...... and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...

  5. Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Grienitz

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

  6. A string scenario for inflationary cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Jonathan Richard; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V; Ellis, J; Mavromatos, N E; Nanopoulos, D V

    1995-01-01

    We describe a scenario for inflation in the framework of non-critical string theory, which does not employ an inflaton field. There is an exponential expansion of the volume of the Universe, induced by enormous entropy production in the early stages of cosmological evolution. This is associated with the loss of information carried by global string modes that cross the particle horizon. It is the same loss of information that induces irreversible time flow when target time is identified with the world-sheet Liouville mode. The resulting scenario for inflation is described by a string analogue of the Fokker-Planck equation that incorporates diffusion and dissipative effects. Cosmological density perturbations are naturally small.

  7. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy......Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  8. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... framework, the “Fingerplan 2007”. We test three policy scenarios and analyse different effects on urban growth by using the Metronamica model from the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS). We analyse the possibilities to elaborate a practical and useful outcome within a relatively...

  9. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  10. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  11. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  12. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  13. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  14. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  15. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  16. APPLIANCE OF SCENARIO PLANNING METHOD FOR RUSSIAN AIRLINES ACTIVITY

    OpenAIRE

    G. V. Kreneva

    2015-01-01

    The article examines scenario planning as a tool for long-term forecasting of airlines activity in an uncertainty. This method is compared to linear programming (linear scheduling method) with their advantages and disadvantages being discussed. Scenario analysis is shown as a main tool in scenario-based forecasting. The scheme of scenario development is performed. Scenario planning experience in European airlines is considered. Uncertainty factors faced by Russian airlines are analysed. In th...

  17. Hydrologic Scenario Uncertainty in a Comprehensive Assessment of Hydrogeologic Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, T. J.; Meyer, P. D.; Ye, M.; Neuman, S. P.

    2005-12-01

    A method to jointly assess hydrogeologic conceptual model and parameter uncertainties has recently been developed based on a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging (MLBMA). Evidence from groundwater model post-audits suggests that errors in the projected future hydrologic conditions of a site (hydrologic scenarios) are a significant source of model predictive errors. MLBMA can be extended to include hydrologic scenario uncertainty, along with conceptual model and parameter uncertainties, in a systematic and quantitative assessment of predictive uncertainty. Like conceptual model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty is represented by a discrete set of alternative scenarios. The effect of scenario uncertainty on model predictions is quantitatively assessed by conducting an MLBMA analysis under each scenario. We demonstrate that posterior model probability is a function of the scenario only through the possible dependence of prior model probabilities on the scenario. As a result, the model likelihoods (computed from calibration results), are not a function of the scenario and do not need to be recomputed under each scenario. MLBMA results for each scenario are weighted by the scenario probability and combined to render a joint assessment of scenario, conceptual model, and parameter uncertainty. Like model probability, scenario probability represents a subjective evaluation, in this case of the plausibility of the occurrence of the specific scenario. Because the scenarios describe future conditions, the scenario probabilities represent prior estimates and cannot be updated using the (past) system state data as is used to compute posterior model probabilities. Assessment of hydrologic scenario uncertainty is illustrated using a site-specific application considering future changes in land use, dam operations, and climate. Estimation of scenario probabilities and consideration of scenario characteristics (e.g., timing, magnitude) are discussed.

  18. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)]|[Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Safety and Risk Assessment Dept.

    1994-12-31

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments.

  19. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  20. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  1. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  2. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  3. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  4. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  5. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  6. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

  7. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  8. Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe B. Wardropper

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios' narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.

  9. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  10. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  11. Hospital standardized mortality ratio: consequences of adjusting hospital mortality with indirect standardization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice E Pouw

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The hospital standardized mortality ratio (HSMR is developed to evaluate and improve hospital quality. Different methods can be used to standardize the hospital mortality ratio. Our aim was to assess the validity and applicability of directly and indirectly standardized hospital mortality ratios. METHODS: Retrospective scenario analysis using routinely collected hospital data to compare deaths predicted by the indirectly standardized case-mix adjustment method with observed deaths. Discharges from Dutch hospitals in the period 2003-2009 were used to estimate the underlying prediction models. We analysed variation in indirectly standardized hospital mortality ratios (HSMRs when changing the case-mix distributions using different scenarios. Sixty-one Dutch hospitals were included in our scenario analysis. RESULTS: A numerical example showed that when interaction between hospital and case-mix is present and case-mix differs between hospitals, indirectly standardized HSMRs vary between hospitals providing the same quality of care. In empirical data analysis, the differences between directly and indirectly standardized HSMRs for individual hospitals were limited. CONCLUSION: Direct standardization is not affected by the presence of interaction between hospital and case-mix and is therefore theoretically preferable over indirect standardization. Since direct standardization is practically impossible when multiple predictors are included in the case-mix adjustment model, indirect standardization is the only available method to compute the HSMR. Before interpreting such indirectly standardized HSMRs the case-mix distributions of individual hospitals and the presence of interactions between hospital and case-mix should be assessed.

  12. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  13. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  14. Relic Neutralino Density in Scenarios with Intermediate Unification Scale

    CERN Document Server

    Khalil, S; Torrente-Lujan, E

    2002-01-01

    We analyse the relic neutralino density in supersymmetric models with an intermediate unification scale. In particular, we present concrete cosmological scenarios where the reheating temperature is as small as $\\cal{O}$ $1 - 1000$ MeV). When this temperature is associated to the decay of moduli fields producing neutralinos, we show that the relic abundance increases considerably with respect to the standard thermal production. Thus the neutralino becomes a good dark matter candidate with $0.1\\lsim \\Omega h^2 \\lsim 0.3$, even for regions of the parameter space where large neutralino-nucleon cross sections, compatible with current dark matter experiments, are present. This is obtained for intermediate scales $M_I\\sim 10^{11}-10^{14}$ GeV, and moduli masses $m_\\phi\\sim 100-1000$ GeV. On the other hand, when the above temperature is associated to the decay of an inflaton field, the relic abundance is too small.

  15. Control, elimination, and eradication of river blindness: scenarios, timelines, and ivermectin treatment needs in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Eun Kim

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available River blindness (onchocerciasis causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin have significantly reduced morbidity. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved the feasibility of elimination with ivermectin administration. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in endemic African regions. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis comparing investment options. For this, we developed scenarios for alternative treatment goals and compared treatment timelines and drug needs between the scenarios. Control, elimination, and eradication scenarios were developed with reference to current standard practices, large-scale studies, and historical data. For each scenario, the timeline when treatment is expected to stop at country level was predicted using a dynamical transmission model, and ivermectin treatment needs were predicted based on population in endemic areas, treatment coverage data, and the frequency of community-directed treatment. The control scenario requires community-directed treatment with ivermectin beyond 2045 with around 2.63 billion treatments over 2013-2045; the elimination scenario, until 2028 in areas where feasible, but beyond 2045 in countries with operational challenges, around 1.48 [corrected] billion treatments; and the eradication scenario, lasting until 2040, around 1.30 billion treatments. The eradication scenario is the most favorable in terms of the timeline of the intervention phase and treatment needs. For its realization, strong health systems and political will are required to overcome epidemiological and political challenges.

  16. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  17. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  18. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  19. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  20. Scenarios for wind power in Brazil, Argentina and Chile; Cenarios para a energia eolio eletrica no Brasil, Argentina e Chile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dedecca, Joao Gorestein; Nogueira, Larissa Goncalves; Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia], emails: jdedecca@fem.unicamp.br, larissa@fem.unicamp.br, januzzi@fem.unicamp.br; Gomes, Rodolfo Dourado [International Energy Initiative-Latin America (IEI-LA), Campinas, SP (Brazil)], email: rodolfo@iei-la.org

    2010-07-01

    The Chilean, Argentinean and Brazilian power matrixes presented in the last two decades a growth of the non-renewable energy sources share, especially fossil sources, mainly in installed capacity and in a lesser degree in energy production. Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council have elaborated a reference energy scenario together with a scenario analyzing the institution of ample measures for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Feed-in tariffs and auction or bidding mechanisms implemented in Brazil and Argentina and the renewable portfolio standard implemented in Chile allied with the wind industry state in these countries indicate that Chile and Argentina will fulfill the 2020 wind power installed capacity predicted in the reference scenarios, while Brazil will reach the energy revolution scenario prediction. Important energy policy changes are required if the Chile and Argentina energy revolution scenarios wind power installed capacity are to become a reality in 2020. (author)

  1. Classifying network attack scenarios using an ontology

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Heerden, RP

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available on the web soon after the breach. Kelley et al used these publicly available lists for testing password cracking algorithms (Kelley, 2011). 5.3.6 Snooping for secrets This scenario represents curious individuals nosing around for secrets. Gary Mc... and again): Measuring password strength by simulating password-cracking algorithms (CMU-CyLab-11-008). Lancor, L., & Workman, R. (2007). Using Google hacking to enhance defense strategies. ACM SIGCSE Bulletin, 39(1), 491-495. Lau, F., Rubin, S. H...

  2. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  3. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  4. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario

  5. Possible Scenarios for the LHC Luminosity Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2107593

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider possible scenarios to upgrade the LHC luminosity beyond 1034 cm−2s−1. By pushing the accelerator parameters to the ultimate performance we can increase to 1.7 1011 the bunch population and eventually reach a peak luminosity of 2.3×1034 cm−2s−1. To go beyond, a considerable improvement of the LHC parameters, such as ß*, beam intensity, bunch length, number of circulating bunches is required. Finally, the upgrade of the injector complex and of the injection energy is another important ingredient to upgrade both peak and integrated luminosity up to an order of magnitude above the nominal value.

  6. Update of the search for supersymmetric particles in scenarios with Gravitino LSP and Sleptons NLSP

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, P.; Adye, T.; Adzic, P.; Albrecht, Z.; Alderweireld, T.; Alekseev, G.D.; Alemany, R.; Allmendinger, T.; Allport, P.P.; Almehed, S.; Amaldi, U.; Amapane, N.; Amato, S.; Anashkin, E.; Anassontzis, E.G.; Andersson, P.; Andreazza, A.; Andringa, S.; Anjos, N.; Antilogus, P.; Apel, W.D.; Arnoud, Y.; Asman, B.; Augustin, J.E.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Ballestrero, A.; Bambade, P.; Barao, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Barbier, R.; Bardin, Dmitri Yu.; Barker, G.J.; Baroncelli, A.; Battaglia, M.; Baubillier, M.; Becks, K.H.; Begalli, M.; Behrmann, A.; Belokopytov, Yu.; Belous, K.; Benekos, N.C.; Benvenuti, A.C.; Berat, C.; Berggren, M.; Berntzon, L.; Bertrand, D.; Besancon, M.; Besson, N.; Bilenky, Mikhail S.; Bloch, D.; Blom, H.M.; Bol, L.; Bonesini, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Booth, P.S.L.; Borisov, G.; Bosio, C.; Botner, O.; Boudinov, E.; Bouquet, B.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Boyko, I.; Bozovic, I.; Bozzo, M.; Bracko, M.; Branchini, P.; Brenner, R.A.; Bruckman, P.; Brunet, J.M.; Bugge, L.; Buschmann, P.; Caccia, M.; Calvi, M.; Camporesi, T.; Canale, V.; Carena, F.; Carroll, L.; Caso, C.; Castillo Gimenez, M.V.; Cattai, A.; Cavallo, F.R.; Chapkin, M.; Charpentier, P.; Checchia, P.; Chelkov, G.A.; Chierici, R.; Chliapnikov, P.; Chochula, P.; Chorowicz, V.; Chudoba, J.; Cieslik, K.; Collins, P.; Contri, R.; Cortina, E.; Cosme, G.; Cossutti, F.; Costa, M.; Crawley, H.B.; Crennell, D.; Croix, J.; Cuevas Maestro, J.; Czellar, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Dalmau, J.; Davenport, M.; Da Silva, W.; Della Ricca, G.; Delpierre, P.; Demaria, N.; De Angelis, A.; De Boer, W.; De Clercq, C.; De Lotto, B.; De Min, A.; De Paula, L.; Dijkstra, H.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Doroba, K.; Dracos, M.; Drees, J.; Dris, M.; Eigen, G.; Ekelof, T.; Ellert, M.; Elsing, M.; Engel, J.P.; Espirito Santo, M.C.; Fanourakis, G.; Fassouliotis, D.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrer-Ribas, E.; Ferro, F.; Firestone, A.; Flagmeyer, U.; Foeth, H.; Fokitis, E.; Fontanelli, F.; Franek, B.; Frodesen, A.G.; Fruhwirth, R.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Fuster, J.; Galloni, A.; Gamba, D.; Gamblin, S.; Gandelman, M.; Garcia, C.; Gaspar, C.; Gaspar, M.; Gasparini, U.; Gavillet, P.; Gazis, Evangelos; Gele, D.; Geralis, T.; Ghodbane, N.; Gil Botella, Ines; Glege, F.; Gokieli, R.; Golob, B.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncalves, P.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Gopal, G.; Gorn, L.; Gouz, Yu.; Gracco, V.; Grahl, J.; Graziani, E.; Grosdidier, G.; Grzelak, K.; Guy, J.; Haag, C.; Hahn, F.; Hahn, S.; Haider, S.; Hallgren, A.; Hamacher, K.; Hansen, J.; Harris, F.J.; Haug, S.; Hauler, F.; Hedberg, V.; Heising, S.; Hernandez, J.J.; Herquet, P.; Herr, H.; Hertz, O.; Higon, E.; Holmgren, S.O.; Holt, P.J.; Hoorelbeke, S.; Houlden, M.; Hrubec, J.; Hughes, G.J.; Hultqvist, K.; Jackson, John Neil; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, P.; Jarlskog, C.; Jarlskog, G.; Jarry, P.; Jean-Marie, B.; Jeans, D.; Johansson, Erik Karl; Jonsson, P.; Joram, C.; Juillot, P.; Jungermann, L.; Kapusta, Frederic; Karafasoulis, K.; Katsanevas, S.; Katsoufis, E.C.; Keranen, R.; Kernel, G.; Kersevan, B.P.; Khokhlov, Yu.A.; Khomenko, B.A.; Khovanski, N.N.; Kiiskinen, A.; King, B.; Kinvig, A.; Kjaer, N.J.; Klapp, O.; Kluit, P.; Kokkinias, P.; Kostioukhine, V.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krammer, M.; Kriznic, E.; Krumstein, Z.; Kubinec, P.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kurowska, J.; Lamsa, J.W.; Laugier, J.P.; Leder, G.; Ledroit, Fabienne; Leinonen, L.; Leisos, A.; Leitner, R.; Lenzen, G.; Lepeltier, V.; Lesiak, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Libby, J.; Liebig, W.; Liko, D.; Lipniacka, A.; Lippi, I.; Loken, J.G.; Lopes, J.H.; Lopez, J.M.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Loukas, D.; Lutz, P.; Lyons, L.; MacNaughton, J.; Mahon, J.R.; Maio, A.; Malek, A.; Maltezos, S.; Malychev, V.; Mandl, F.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Marechal, B.; Margoni, M.; Marin, J.C.; Mariotti, C.; Markou, A.; Martinez-Rivero, C.; Marti i Garcia, S.; Masik, J.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Matorras, F.; Matteuzzi, C.; Matthiae, G.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; McCubbin, M.; McKay, R.; McNulty, R.; McPherson, G.; Merle, E.; Meroni, C.; Meyer, W.T.; Migliore, E.; Mirabito, L.; Mitaroff, W.A.; Mjoernmark, U.; Moa, T.; Moch, M.; Monig, Klaus; Monge, M.R.; Montenegro, J.; Moraes, D.; Morettini, P.; Morton, G.; Muller, U.; Muenich, K.; Mulders, M.; Mundim, L.M.; Murray, W.J.; Muryn, B.; Myatt, G.; Myklebust, T.; Nassiakou, M.; Navarria, F.L.; Nawrocki, K.; Negri, P.; Nemecek, S.; Neufeld, N.; Nicolaidou, R.; Niezurawski, P.; Nikolenko, M.; Nomokonov, V.; Nygren, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Olshevski, A.G.; Onofre, A.; Orava, R.; Osterberg, K.; Ouraou, A.; Oyanguren, A.; Paganoni, M.; Paiano, S.; Pain, R.; Paiva, R.; Palacios, J.; Palka, H.; Papadopoulou, T.D.; Pape, L.; Parkes, C.; Parodi, F.; Parzefall, U.; Passeri, A.; Passon, O.; Peralta, L.; Perepelitsa, V.; Pernicka, M.; Perrotta, A.; Petridou, C.; Petrolini, A.; Phillips, H.T.; Pierre, F.; Pimenta, M.; Piotto, E.; Podobnik, T.; Poireau, V.; Pol, M.E.; Polok, G.; Poropat, P.; Pozdniakov, V.; Privitera, P.; Pukhaeva, N.; Pullia, A.; Radojicic, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Rahmani, H.; Read, Alexander L.; Rebecchi, P.; Redaelli, Nicola Giuseppe; Regler, M.; Rehn, J.; Reid, D.; Reinhardt, R.; Renton, P.B.; Resvanis, L.K.; Richard, F.; Ridky, J.; Rinaudo, G.; Ripp-Baudot, Isabelle; Romero, A.; Ronchese, P.; Rosenberg, E.I.; Rosinsky, P.; Rovelli, T.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Ruiz, A.; Saarikko, H.; Sacquin, Y.; Sadovsky, A.; Sajot, G.; Salmi, L.; Salt, J.; Sampsonidis, D.; Sannino, M.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schwanda, C.; Schwemling, P.; Schwering, B.; Schwickerath, U.; Scuri, Fabrizio; Seager, P.; Sedykh, Y.; Segar, A.M.; Sekulin, R.; Sette, G.; Shellard, R.C.; Siebel, M.; Simard, L.; Simonetto, F.; Sisakian, A.N.; Smadja, G.; Smirnov, N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, G.R.; Sokolov, A.; Sopczak, A.; Sosnowski, R.; Spassov, T.; Spiriti, E.; Squarcia, S.; Stanescu, C.; Stanitzki, M.; Stevenson, K.; Stocchi, A.; Strauss, J.; Strub, R.; Stugu, B.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Tabarelli, T.; Taffard, A.; Chikilev, O.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Terranova, F.; Timmermans, Jan; Tinti, N.; Tkatchev, L.G.; Tobin, M.; Todorova, S.; Tome, B.; Tonazzo, A.; Tortora, L.; Tortosa, P.; Treille, D.; Tristram, G.; Trochimczuk, M.; Troncon, C.; Turluer, M.L.; Tyapkin, I.A.; Tyapkin, P.; Tzamarias, S.; Ullaland, O.; Uvarov, V.; Valenti, G.; Vallazza, E.; Vander Velde, C.; Van Dam, Piet; Van den Boeck, W.; Van Eldik, J.; Van Lysebetten, A.; van Remortel, N.; Van Vulpen, I.; Vegni, G.; Ventura, L.; Venus, W.; Verbeure, F.; Verdier, P.; Verlato, M.; Vertogradov, L.S.; Verzi, V.; Vilanova, D.; Vitale, L.; Vlasov, E.; Vodopianov, A.S.; Voulgaris, G.; Vrba, V.; Wahlen, H.; Washbrook, A.J.; Weiser, C.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, J.H.; Wilkinson, G.R.; Winter, M.; Witek, M.; Wolf, G.; Yi, J.; Yushchenko, O.; Zalewska, A.; Zalewski, P.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zevgolatakos, E.; Zimine, N.I.; Zintchenko, A.; Zoller, P.; Zumerle, G.; Zupan, M.

    2001-01-01

    An update of the search for sleptons, neutralinos and charginos in the context of scenarios where the lightest supersymmetric particle is the gravitino and the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle is a slepton, is presented, together with the update of the search for heavy stable charged particles in light gravitino scenarios and Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Models. Data collected in 1999 with the DELPHI detector at centre-of-mass energies around 192, 196, 200 and 202 GeV were analysed. No evidence for the production of these supersymmetric particles was found. Hence, new mass limits were derived at 95% confidence level.

  7. Constraining sleptons at the LHC in a supersymmetric low-scale seesaw scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cerna-Velazco, Nhell; Jones-Perez, Joel [Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Seccion Fisica, Departamento de Ciencias, Lima (Peru); Faber, Thomas; Porod, Werner [Uni Wuerzburg, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a scenario inspired by natural supersymmetry, where neutrino data is explained within a low-scale seesaw scenario. We extend the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model by adding light right-handed neutrinos and their superpartners, the R-sneutrinos, and consider the lightest neutralinos to be higgsino-like. We consider the possibilities of having either an R-sneutrino or a higgsino as lightest supersymmetric particle. Assuming that squarks and gauginos are heavy, we systematically evaluate the bounds on slepton masses due to existing LHC data. (orig.)

  8. Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc Scenario with Observations of FR II Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek, E-mail: krusinek@camk.edu.pl [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland)

    2017-10-12

    The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R){sup 2} dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

  9. Frequency standards

    CERN Document Server

    Riehle, Fritz

    2006-01-01

    Of all measurement units, frequency is the one that may be determined with the highest degree of accuracy. It equally allows precise measurements of other physical and technical quantities, whenever they can be measured in terms of frequency.This volume covers the central methods and techniques relevant for frequency standards developed in physics, electronics, quantum electronics, and statistics. After a review of the basic principles, the book looks at the realisation of commonly used components. It then continues with the description and characterisation of important frequency standards

  10. MSSM Higgs Boson Searches at the LHC: Benchmark Scenarios after the Discovery of a Higgs-like Particle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Stål, O.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low-energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known mh-max scenario, and a modified scenario (mh-mod), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the MA-tan \\beta\\ plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h to \\gamma\\gamma\\ at large tan \\beta. We also suggest a \\tau-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the \\mu\\ parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H to hh. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-MH scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV.

  11. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  12. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  13. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.O.

    1991-06-01

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the time-span considered for the disposal of nuclear fuel. Based on the present status of knowledge, this report discusses when future ice ages will occur and the possible changes in the geosphere that might be of importance for repository performance. The report is intended to be used as a basis when developing scenarios for safety analysis of final repository for spent nuclear fuel. Both the ACLIN and Imbrie and Imbrie models suggest stadials (glaciations) at c. 20000, 60000 and 100000 years from now. The ACLIN model also suggests a glaciation period around 5000 years ahead. The next interglacial period will occur at c. 75000 years, according to the Imbrie and Imbrie model, while the ACLIN model suggests that interglacial conditions will not appear until 125000 years form now. Other models strongly support the 60000 year glaciation event. To some extent there is also support for the 20000 and 5000 year events. For the purpose of the SKB/TVO scenario it is suggested that smaller or large glaciations will occur at 5000, 20000 and 60000 years form now. Following the last glaciation, interglacial conditions will prevail at 75000 years. Thus after the first glaciation (5000 years) this is the earliest time when most part of Sweden and Finland will once again be resettled by man. (25 refs.)

  14. A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  16. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  17. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  18. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  19. Relevant Standards

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    .86: Ethernet over LAPS. Standard in China and India. G.7041: Generic Framing Procedure (GFP). Supports Ethernet as well as other data formats (e.g., Fibre Channel); Protocol of ... IEEE 802.3x for flow control of incoming Ethernet data ...

  20. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  1. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  2. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  3. Creating COMFORT: A Communication-Based Model for Breaking Bad News

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagran, Melinda; Goldsmith, Joy; Wittenberg-Lyles, Elaine; Baldwin, Paula

    2010-01-01

    This study builds upon existing protocols for breaking bad news (BBN), and offers an interaction-based approach to communicating comfort to patients and their families. The goal was to analyze medical students' (N = 21) videotaped standardized patient BBN interactions after completing an instructional unit on a commonly used BBN protocol, commonly…

  4. Unlocking the potential barriers on SMEs’ uptake of scenario planning

    OpenAIRE

    Nyuur, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Purpose:\\ud The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the uptake of scenario planning by SMEs. \\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach:\\ud A conceptual review of the literature on scenario planning in SMEs intended to unpack and capture the possible underlying reasons accounting for the limited uptake of scenario planning by managers/owners of SMEs has informed the formulation...

  5. 40 CFR 268.44 - Variance from a treatment standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... disposal restriction treatment standards that, using a reasonable maximum exposure scenario: (A) For... Chromium .32 NA Lead .040 NA Nickel .44 NA CWM Chemical Services, LLC, Model City, New York K0889 Standards... Lead .040 NA Nickel .44 NA St. Gobain Containers, El Monte, CA 5,7 D010 Standards under § 268.40...

  6. Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

    1988-01-01

    In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

  7. Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

    1988-01-01

    In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

  8. Analytical modeling of transport aircraft crash scenarios to obtain floor pulses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittlin, G.; Lackey, D.

    1983-01-01

    The KRAS program was used to analyze transport aircraft candidate crash scenarios. Aircraft floor pulses and seat/occupant responses are presented. Results show that: (1) longitudinal only pulses can be represented by equivalent step inputs and/or static requirements; (2) the L1649 crash test floor longitudinal pulse for the aft direction (forward inertia) is less than 9g static or an equivalent 5g pulse; aft inertia accelerations are extremely small ((ch76) 3g) for representative crash scenarios; (3) a viable procedure to relate crash scenario floor pulses to standard laboratory dynamic and static test data using state of the art analysis and test procedures was demonstrated; and (4) floor pulse magnitudes are expected to be lower for wide body aircraft than for smaller narrow body aircraft.

  9. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... on how to model future scenarios in LCA. This thesis highlights critical findings aiming at strengthening the role of LCA in decision support and strategic planning for waste management. In particular, the thesis thoroughly investigated the future scenario methods, the existing guidance on modelling...

  10. Galactic-Centre Gamma Rays in CMSSM Dark Matter Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Spanos, Vassilis C

    2011-01-01

    We study the production of gamma rays via LSP annihilations in the core of the Galaxy as a possible experimental signature of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM), in which supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to be universal at the GUT scale, assuming also that the LSP is the lightest neutralino chi. The part of the CMSSM parameter space that is compatible with the measured astrophysical density of cold dark matter is known to include a stau_1 - chi coannihilation strip, a focus-point strip where chi has an enhanced Higgsino component, and a funnel at large tanb where the annihilation rate is enhanced by the poles of nearby heavy MSSM Higgs bosons, A/H. We calculate the total annihilation rates, the fractions of annihilations into different Standard Model final states and the resulting fluxes of gamma rays for CMSSM scenarios along these strips. We observe that typical annihilation rates are much smaller in the coannihilation strip for tanb = 10 than along t...

  11. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

  12. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  13. Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semsar Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario

  14. GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

    2009-12-01

    Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

  15. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  16. New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

  17. Geoprospective: from the acquired data, to the scenarios; Geoprospective: des donnees acquises, aux scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalier des Orres, P. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. d`Evaluation de Surete; Blanc, P.L. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. de Protection de l`Environnement et des Installations

    1994-06-01

    The present paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radwaste deep disposal (RFS no. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. (authors). 11 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise.

  19. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    stand still was initiated. Furthermore, infected herds were depopulated and a 3 km detection zone and a 10 km surveillance zone were implemented around all infected herds. Within the protections zones, all herds were simulated to be clinically surveyed twice, first within 7 days after implementing...... the zone, and second 21 days later. Sheep within the zone were simulated to be tested. Within the surveillance zone, all herds were simulated to be clinically surveyed within 7 days, and sheep within the zone were simulated to be tested within 7 days and again before lifting the zone. Herds, which had...... in ringzones of varying radii around infected herds. In alternative scenarios, we tested the effect of depopulating in zones of 500, 1000 and 1500 meters from infected herds. Depopulation was started on day 14 after detection of the first herd, or after detecting 10, 20, 30 or 50 infected herds. In some...

  20. Traumatic intrusions as 'worse case scenario's'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merckelbach, H; Muris, P; Horselenberg, R; Rassin, E

    1998-11-01

    While some clinicians assume that traumatic intrusions are historically accurate revisualizations of traumatic incidents, others have suggested that these types of intrusions may represent a worse case scenario (i.e. exaggerated) version of the trauma. To explore this issue, a survey was conducted among undergraduate students (N = 189). Of the 69 respondents who had been the victim of or witness to a relatively recent trauma, 15 (22%) reported an exaggerated perception of the traumatic incident. Exaggerated intrusions were found to have more flashback qualities and tended to have a higher frequency than 'realistic' intrusions. These findings are well in line with the idea that intrusions are not necessarily veridical copies of traumatic events.

  1. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    In geosciences, as well as in astrophysics, direct observations of a studied physical system and objects are not always accessible. Instead, indirect observations have to be used in order to obtain information about the unknown system, which leads to an inverse problem. Such geoscientific inverse....... Finally, the probabilistic formulation provides a means of analyzing uncertainties and potential multiple-scenario solutions to be used for risk assessments in relation to, e.g., reservoir characterization and forecasting. Prior models rely on information from old data sets or expert knowledge in form of......, e.g., training images that expresses structural, lithological, or textural features. Statistics obtained from these types of observations will be referred to as sample models. Geostatistical sampling algorithms use a sample model as input and produce multiple realizations of the model parameters...

  2. Effective Scenarios for Exploring Asteroid Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Pamela E.; Clark, C.; Weisbin, C.

    2010-10-01

    In response to the proposal that asteroids be the next targets for exploration, we attempt to develop scenarios for exploring previously mapped asteroid 433 Eros, harnessing our recent experience gained planning such activity for return to the lunar surface. The challenges faced in planning Apollo led to the development of a baseline methodology for extraterrestrial field science. What `lessons learned’ can be applied for asteroids? Effective reconnaissance (advanced mapping at tetherable’ and would most likely `station keep’ to maintain a position. The most convenient local mobility mechanism for astronauts/robots would be `hand over hand’ above the surface at a field station supplemented by a `tetherless’ (small rocket-pack) control system for changing station or return to vehicle. Thus, we assume similar mobility constraints (meters to hundreds of meters at a local station, kilometers between stations) as those used for Apollo. We also assume the vehicle could `station keep’ at more than one location separated by tens of kilometers distance.

  3. Nuclear fuel cycle transition scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Future nuclear fuel cycles could effectively address radioactive waste issues with the implementation of partitioning and transmutation (P and T). Previous studies have defined the infrastructure requirements for several key technical approaches. While these studies have proven extremely valuable, several countries have also recognised the complex, dynamic nature of the infrastructure problem: severe new issues arise when attempting to transit from current open or partially closed cycles to a final equilibrium or burn-down mode. While the issues are country-specific when addressed in detail, it is believed that there exists a series of generic issues related only to the current situation and to the desired end point. These issues are critical to implementing a sustainable nuclear energy infrastructure. The present report focuses on the definition of key issues, the assessment of technologies and national scenario assessments. (author)

  4. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  5. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  6. Fermi Bubbles: Formation Scenarios and Substructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

    2013-04-01

    The Milky Way has gamma-ray lobes extending several kpc above and below the Galactic center, known as the "Fermi Bubbles." Although the Galactic center is quiet today, these bubbles are a hint of past AGN activity, a burst of star formation, or some other dramatic energy injection. In the three years since their discovery, they have been modeled analytically and numerically, and additional radio and x-ray data have been obtained, leading to a number of ideas about their origins. I will review the latest data and report on some possible formation scenarios. I will also give an update on our tentative claim last year of a linear jet-like structure within the bubbles (arXiv:1205.5852).

  7. Calculation of inherent boron dilution scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kereszturi, A.; Toth, E.L.; Telbisz, M.; Trosztel, I.

    1999-01-01

    Two inherent boron dilution scenarios have been investigated in the frame of the PH2.08 PHARE project supported by the EC[1]. The Small Break LOCA (SBLOCA) initiating event was investigated by the SMABRE[2] and ATHLET[3] codes, while the SMATRA[4] code was used for the study of an ATWS initiating event. The results show that in case of SBLOCA slug formation is possible if the operator starts to cool down the secondary loop but the slug does not enter the core because it is removed by the Low Pressure Safety Injection. In case of ATWS, it was concluded that the maximum void fraction in the hot leg remained below 95% and that there was sufficient water in the two-phase flow to prevent formation of un borated slugs. Furthermore at the time the condensation of steam was already impossible in the steam generators because of drying out. (Authors)

  8. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  9. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  10. Advanced steady-state operating scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nevins, W.M.; Bulmer, R.H.; Pearlstein, L.D.; Haney, S.W.; Manickam, J.

    1993-01-01

    The goal for advanced steady-state operation in ITER should be to demonstrate the operation of the plasma core for a steady-state fusion reactor. To accomplish this the authors must develop steady-state operating scenarios at high beta for high fusion power density, low auxiliary power requirements (Q CD ≥ 25, where Q CD triple-bond P fusion/P CD and P DC is the power required for sustaining the plasma current) for low recirculating power requirements, and at moderate safety factor (q ψ ≤ 4.5) to minimize the cost for the tokamak core of a steady-state demonstration power reactor based on the operating modes demonstrated in ITER. The key to achieving steady-state operation at high fusion power in ITER will be the development of operating scenarios with very high bootstrap current fractions (f BS ≥ 90%) in which the radial profile of the bootstrap current density is well aligned with that of the total plasma current density, and for which the MHD β-limit exceeds β n * = 0.05 T-m/MA. They are in the process of developing such operating modes for ITER. In section 1 they propose two advanced steady-state operating points; a preliminary operating point that was the basis for the MHD studies reported in section 2, and a second operating point that has been optimized based on the authors studies to date. In section 2 they present calculations indicating that the initial operating point is stable to MHD ballooning and low-n kink modes (with a conducting wall at r = 1.25a) up to β n * ∼ 6 x 10 -2 T - m/MA. In section 3 they present a free-boundary MHD equilibrium, and show that advanced steady-state operating modes are compatible with the ITER poloidal field system and diverter

  11. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  12. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  14. The Use of Professionalism Scenarios in the Medical School Interview Process: Faculty and Interviewee Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Kleshinski, MD

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of professionalism scenarios on the medical school admissions process from applicant and faculty perspectives. Specifically, do completing professionalism scenarios as part of the medical school interview process have an impact on both the interviewee’s and the faculty’s perception of the process and outcome?Method: Ninety-one faculty interviewed 199 applicants from January 2007 through April 2007 at The University of Toledo College of Medicine. All applicants were asked one standard professionalism scenario in each of their two interviews. A total of six scenarios were used for the entire interviewing season in rotation every two months. A survey was administered by an admissions office staff member to both the interviewed applicants as well as faculty who conducted interviews about how these scenarios impacted their interview experience.Results: Asking applicants to respond to professionalism scenarios during the interview was described as having a positive influence on their interview experience. This was also associated with leaving an impression on the applicant about what our institution values in its students and contributed an element of personal reflection about what will be expected of them in the medical profession. Applicants more often reported that asking questions about professionalism was an important aspect of the interview than did faculty. Overall, there was an association between the interviewer’s perception of the applicant’s response and the interviewer’s assessment of professionalism.Conclusions: Professionalism scenarios can be a worthwhile tool for use in the admissions process. The interview process should encourage participation from faculty who value this as an important component in the evaluation of an applicant. Determinants of faculty perception of the role of assessing professionalism in the interview process should be investigated in future

  15. Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

  16. Assessment of operational space for long-pulse scenarios in ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polevoi, A. R.; Loarte, A.; Hayashi, N.; Kim, H. S.; Kim, S. H.; Koechl, F.; Kukushkin, A. S.; Leonov, V. M.; Medvedev, S. Yu.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y. S.; Pankin, A. Y.; Park, J. M.; Snyder, P. B.; Snipes, J. A.; Zhogolev, V. E.; IOS ITPA TG, the

    2015-06-01

    The operational space (Ip - n) for long-pulse scenarios (Δtburn ˜ 1000 s, Q ⩾ 5) of ITER has been assessed by 1.5D core transport modelling with pedestal parameters predicted by the EPED1 code by a set of transport codes under a joint activity carried out by the Integrated Operational Scenario ITPA group. The analyses include the majority of transport models (CDBM, GLF23, Bohm/gyroBohm (BgB), MMM7.1, MMM95, Weiland, scaling-based) presently used for interpretation of experiments and ITER predictions. The EPED1 code was modified to take into account boundary conditions predicted by SOLPS4 for ITER. In contrast to standard EPED1 assumptions, EPED1 with the SOLPS boundary conditions predicts no degradation of the pedestal pressure as density is reduced. Lowering the plasma density to ne ˜ (5-6) × 1019 m-3 leads to an increased plasma temperature (similar pedestal pressure), which reduces the loop voltage and increases the duration of the burn phase to Δtburn ˜ 1000 s with Q ⩾ 5 for Ip ⩾ 13 MA at moderate normalized pressure (βN ˜ 2). These ITER plasmas require the same level of additional heating power as the reference Q = 10 inductive scenario at 15 MA (33 MW NBI and 17-20 MW EC heating and current drive power). However, unlike the ‘hybrid’ scenarios considered previously, these H-mode plasmas do not require specially shaped q profiles nor improved confinement in the core for the transport models considered in this study. Thus, these medium density H-mode plasma scenarios with Ip ⩾ 13 MA present an attractive alternative to hybrid scenarios to achieve ITER's long-pulse Q ⩾ 5 scenario and deserve further analysis and experimental demonstration in present tokamaks.

  17. An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbadebo Oladosu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

  18. Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.; González-Eguino, M.; Criqui, P.; Mima, S.

    2014-01-01

    In the last decade a number of papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output by about 19 times in the 21st century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of low global GDP growth and high convergence levels in GDP per capita across countries. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation could be technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. However, that will imply higher global abatement costs relative to GDP. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact. - Highlights: • We study the implications of GDP growth and convergence on climate stabilisation. • A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used. • Low climate stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable. • Low stabilisation is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. • Convergence places pressure in terms of the required reduction in emissions

  19. Blurring the boundaries: scenario-based simulation in a clinical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneebone, R L; Kidd, J; Nestel, D; Barnet, A; Lo, B; King, R; Yang, G Z; Brown, R

    2005-06-01

    The ability to perform clinical procedures safely is a key skill for health care professionals. Performing such procedures on conscious patients is challenging and requires a combination of technical and communication skills. We have developed quasi-clinical scenarios, where inanimate models attached to simulated patients provide a convincing learning environment. Procedures are rated by expert observers and by the 'patient' and recorded for subsequent review. This study explores the potential of locating such scenarios within a real clinical setting, allowing participants to experience the challenges of the workplace while ensuring patient safety. An innovative portable digital recording device (the 'Virtual Chaperone') is evaluated for use in clinical settings. A qualitative design (observation and interview studies) investigated volunteer medical students undertaking 2 procedure scenarios (insertion of urinary catheter and wound closure with sutures) within the accident unit of a large London hospital. All procedures were observed in real time and recorded digitally (using the Virtual Chaperone). A protocol was used for structured feedback. Observational and interview data was analysed using standard qualitative techniques. Seven sessions with 22 undergraduate medical students took place over 9 months within 1 centre. Data confirmed the feasibility of using a moveable, self-contained training scenario within an authentic clinical setting. Overall, the response from participants was positive. Scenario-based teaching within an authentic clinical environment is feasible and perceived by participants to be educationally useful. This approach blurs traditional boundaries between skills laboratory teaching and clinical practice and may offer considerable advantages in training for clinical procedures.

  20. From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

    One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

  1. Comparison of mixed-Higgs scenarios in the NMSSM and the MSSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dermisek, Radovan; Gunion, John F.

    2008-01-01

    We study scenarios in the minimal and next-to-minimal supersymmetric models in which the lightest CP-even Higgs boson can have mass below the 114 GeV standard model LEP limit by virtue of reduced ZZ coupling due to substantial mixing among the Higgs bosons. We pay particular attention to the size of corrections from superpartners needed for these scenarios to be viable and point to boundary conditions at large scales which lead to these scenarios while at the same time keeping electroweak fine-tuning modest in size. We find that naturalness of electroweak symmetry breaking in the mixed-Higgs scenarios of both models points to the same region of soft supersymmetry breaking terms as in the decoupled scenarios with mass of the CP even Higgs boson above 114 GeV, namely those leading to large mixing in the stop sector at the electroweak scale, especially if we also require that the lightest CP-even Higgs explains the Higgs-like LEP events at ∼98 GeV

  2. The Negawatt association reevaluates its energy scenario; L'association negaWatt reactualise son scenario energetique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    In 2003 the association Negawatt imagined an energy policy scenario (2000-2050) which aims to divide by four the greenhouse gases emission. This scenario has just been completed for the 2006 edition with less growth evolution. This scenario expects the gradually shutdown of nuclear power plants for 2035, without the replacement by power plants of third generation. (A.L.B.)

  3. Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-08-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of

  4. Search for neutral Higgs bosons in CP-conserving and CP-violating MSSM scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Abbiendi, G.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Amaral, P.; Anagnostou, G.; Anderson, K.J.; Asai, S.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Barberio, E.; Barillari, T.; Barlow, R.J.; Batley, R.J.; Bechtle, P.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bell, P.J.; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Benelli, G.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Boeriu, O.; Bock, P.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Buesser, K.; Burckhart, H.J.; Campana, S.; Carnegie, R.K.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, D.G.; Ciocca, C.; Csilling, A.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, John William; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Giunta, Marina; Goldberg, J.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Gupta, A.; Hajdu, C.; Hamann, M.; Hanson, G.G.; Harel, A.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Horvath, D.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jeremie, H.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karlen, D.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kluth, S.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Komamiya, S.; Kramer, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kruger, K.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Layter, J.G.; Lellouch, D.; Lettso, J.; Levinson, L.; Lillich, J.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, A.; Ludwig, J.; Mader, W.; Marcellini, S.; Martin, A.J.; Masetti, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McKenna, J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Menges, W.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Meyer, Niels T.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Moed, S.; Mohr, W.; Mori, T.; Mutter, A.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Nanjo, H.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oh, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pahl, C.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rabbertz, K.; Rembser, C.; Renkel, P.; Roney, J.M.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schieck, J.; Schorner-Sadenius, T.; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Sherwood, P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spano, F.; Stahl, A.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Tarem, S.; Tasevsky, M.; Teuscher, R.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Toya, D.; Tran, P.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Ujvari, B.; Vollmer, C.F.; Vannerem, P.; Vertesi, R.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wilson, G.W.; Wilson, J.A.; Wolf, G.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zer-Zion, D.; Zivkovic, Lidija

    2004-01-01

    This report summarizes the final results from the OPAL collaboration on searches for neutral Higgs bosons predicted by the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). CP-conserving and for the first time at LEP CP-violating scenarios are studied. New scenarios are also included, which aim to set the stage for Higgs searches at future colliders. The results are based on the data collected with the OPAL detector at e+e- centre-of-mass energies up to 209 GeV. The data are consistent with the prediction of the Standard Model with no Higgs boson produced. Model-independent limits are derived for the cross-section of a number of events topologies motivated by prediction of the MSSM. Limits on Higgs boson masses and other MSSM parameters are obtained for a number of representative MSSM benchmark scenarios. For example, in the CP-conserving scenario mh-max where the MSSM parameters are adjusted to predict the largest range of values for mh at each tan beta, and for a top quark mass of 174.3 GeV, the domain 0.784.5 ...

  5. Effect of exotic long-lived sub-strongly interacting massive particles in big bang nucleosynthesis and a new solution to the Li problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kawasaki Masahiro

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The plateau of 7Li abundance as a function of the iron abundance by spectroscopic observations of metal-poor halo stars (MPHSs indicates its primordial origin. The observed abundance levels are about a factor of three smaller than the primordial 7Li abundance predicted in the standard Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN model. This discrepancy might originate from exotic particle and nuclear processes operating in BBN epoch. Some particle models include heavy (m >> 1 GeV long-lived colored particles which would be confined inside exotic heavy hadrons, i.e., strongly interacting massive particles (SIMPs. We have found reactions which destroy 7Be and 7Li during BBN in the scenario of BBN catalyzed by a long-lived sub-strongly interacting massive particle (sub-SIMP, X. The reactions are non radiative X captures of 7 Be and 7Li which can be operative if the X particle interacts with nuclei strongly enough to drive 7 Be destruction but not strongly enough to form a bound state with 4 He of relative angular momentum L = 1. We suggest that 7Li problem can be solved as a result of a new process beyond the standard model through which the observable signature was left on the primordial Li abundance.

  6. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  7. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  8. Leptogenesis scenarios for natural SUSY with mixed axion-higgsino dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Kyu Jung [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Oklahoma,Norman, OK 73019 (United States); Department of Physics, University of Tokyo,Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Baer, Howard; Serce, Hasan; Zhang, Yi-Fan [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Oklahoma,Norman, OK 73019 (United States)

    2016-01-07

    Supersymmetric models with radiatively-driven electroweak naturalness require light higgsinos of mass ∼100–300 GeV. Naturalness in the QCD sector is invoked via the Peccei-Quinn (PQ) axion leading to mixed axion-higgsino dark matter. The SUSY DFSZ axion model provides a solution to the SUSY μ problem and the Little Hierarchy μ≪m{sub 3/2} may emerge as a consequence of a mismatch between PQ and hidden sector mass scales. The traditional gravitino problem is now augmented by the axino and saxion problems, since these latter particles can also contribute to overproduction of WIMPs or dark radiation, or violation of BBN constraints. We compute regions of the T{sub R} vs. m{sub 3/2} plane allowed by BBN, dark matter and dark radiation constraints for various PQ scale choices f{sub a}. These regions are compared to the values needed for thermal leptogenesis, non-thermal leptogenesis, oscillating sneutrino leptogenesis and Affleck-Dine leptogenesis. The latter three are allowed in wide regions of parameter space for PQ scale f{sub a}∼10{sup 10}–10{sup 12} GeV which is also favored by naturalness: f{sub a}∼√(μM{sub P}/λ{sub μ})∼10{sup 10}–10{sup 12} GeV. These f{sub a} values correspond to axion masses somewhat above the projected ADMX search regions.

  9. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  10. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  11. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  12. Requirements for Semantic Educational Recommender Systems in Formal E-Learning Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Jesus G. Boticario; Olga C. Santos

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes how recommender systems can be applied to current e-learning systems to guide learners in personalized inclusive e-learning scenarios. Recommendations can be used to overcome current limitations of learning management systems in providing personalization and accessibility features. Recommenders can take advantage of standards-based solutions to provide inclusive support. To this end we have identified the need for developing semantic educational recommender systems, which ...

  13. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  14. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  15. Interactive Language Learning through Speech-Enabled Virtual Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Morton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of an educational game designed to give learners of foreign languages the opportunity to practice their spoken language skills. Within the speech interactive Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL program, scenarios are presented in which learners interact with virtual characters in the target language using speech recognition technology. Two types of interactive scenarios with virtual characters are presented as part of the game: the one-to-one scenarios which take the form of practice question and answer scenarios where the learner interacts with one virtual character and the interactive scenario which is an immersive contextualised scenario where the learner interacts with two or more virtual characters within the scene to complete a (task-based communicative goal. The study presented here compares learners’ subjective attitudes towards the different scenarios. In addition, the study investigates the performance of the speech recognition component in this game. Forty-eight students of English as a Foreign Language (EFL took part in the evaluation. Results indicate that learners’ subjective ratings for the contextualised interactive scenario are higher than for the one-to-one, practice scenarios. In addition, recognition performance was better for these interactive scenarios.

  16. EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

  17. Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

    2016-01-01

    Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which ...

  18. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  19. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Scott; Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents' classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition.

  20. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  1. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  2. Geoprospective: from acquired data to scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Blanc, P.L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radioactive waste deep disposal (RFS N. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. Three periods are considered in the study: the initial period (0-500 years AP) during which only water circulations and heat transfers are considered in the waste-rock interaction problem; the permanent regime period (500-10000 years AP) and the subsequent period (10000-50000 years AP) during which changes in landscape morphology due to human activity and climate changes have to be considered. In particular, global climatic oscillations can lead to glaciations with an amplitude equivalent to those known for the Quaternary period and with possible influence on waste disposals integrity. The simulation of an ice-cap development over Europe has been attempted but no convincing model could be obtained so-far. (J.S.). 11 refs., 3 figs

  3. Scenarios for upgrading the LHC injectors

    CERN Document Server

    Garoby, R

    2007-01-01

    The presence of a powerful accelerator complex that could serve as injector has been instrumental in the decision to build the LHC at CERN. This existing complex has now confirmed its capability, having demonstrated that it is able to deliver beam with the nominal characteristics as well as numerous other types of beams which will be essential for tuning-in, commissioning and operating the future collider for physics in its first years. However it is also clear that the existing LHC injectors will not be able to deliver beam with the ultimate characteristics and that they suffer from reliability problems due to their age. An analysis has therefore been done by the working group in charge of "Proton Accelerators of the Future" (PAF) to determine a logical evolution of the accelerator complex, considering the needs of LHC and of the other potential future physics experiments at CERN. As a result, scenarios for a staged upgrade have been proposed, involving the progressive replacement of all the low energy accel...

  4. Radiological accidents, scenarios, planning and answers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solis Delgado, Alexander.

    2008-01-01

    Radiological accidents, scenarios and the importance of a good planning to prevent and control these types of accidents are presented. The radiation can be only one of the risks in an accident, most of dominant radiological risks are not radiological (fire, toxic gases, etc.). The common causes of radiological accidents, potential risks such as external irradiation, internal contamination and the environment pollution are highlighted. In addition, why accidents happen and how they evolve is explained. It describes some incidents with the radiation occurred in Costa Rica from 1993 to 2007. The coordination of emergency management in Costa Rica in relation to a radiological accident, and some mechanisms of action that have practiced in other places are focuses. Among the final considerations are the need to finalize the national plan for radiological emergencies as a tool of empowerment for the teams of emergency care and the availability of information. Likewise the processes of communication, coordination and cooperation to avoid chaos, confusion and crisis are also highlighted [es

  5. Technological mediation: new scenarios for teaching practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Alfonso Muñoz Rojas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to elucidate and reflect on the dimensions configured in a transformation of teaching practices. Such practices can lead to set new educational scenarios based on technological mediation. This paper is the result of a qualitative analysis of concepts referred to in researches between 2009 and 2013. Likewise it makes part of the project: ‘Theoretical Approaches of Research Projects on Mediation of Information and Communication Technologies: A Configuration for a Conceptual Approach’, product of the announcement # 9 by Universidad Santo Tomas’ Distance Learning – Open University Vice Chancellor Office (VUAD. It is inquired, among other emerging categories, about autonomous and collaborative learning, the role of online tutors, the social, teaching, and cognitive presence, the collective intelligence and the digital education. Methodologically dissertation was based on the use of ATLAS.ti – program that strengthened the process of ordering and organizing the information from various sources, and helped to determine the categorization and construction of semantic maps. Finally, conclusions and questions about prospects for technology and education are presente.

  6. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  7. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  8. Scenarios for a deregulated, restructured electric industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, G.C.

    1998-01-01

    Deregulation is moving rapidly on some fronts, while opposition by some affected parties is growing. The restructured industry is emerging, in the growth of new businesses such as power marketing and energy services, and also in reorganization by utilities to prepare for the future under deregulation. The market levels and opportunities will depend not only on the decisions of individual state and Federal regulators, but also on those of utilities, power marketers, developers and others who can drive the direction and the outcome of the changes. Scenarios for deregulation and restructuring are examined, from a rapid pace toward full competition, to a process slowed or blocked by conflicting interests and opposition from parties bent on preserving existing positions. A key development already underway with expected major impact on the future of the industry will be major consolidations, including convergence of electric and gas supply, and emergence of very large and powerful players. The generation business and energy supply to customers, based on aggressive marketing will lead the way

  9. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-01-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  10. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.

    1991-10-01

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the future. The report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during future glaciations, and which are likely to be of importance for a repository. The report presents a synthesis of the results in a form of a scenario from two state-of-the-art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on the present status of knowledge the climate at Scandinavia will gradually become colder permitting the growth of an ice sheet at 5000 years in the mountainous area of Sweden. After a minor warmer period fully stadial conditions will occur around 20 000 years from now, and after interstadial with dry and cold climate again after 60000 years from now. During the latter glaciation ice thickness at Stockholm-Helsinki region is 2500 m. Interstadial conditions similar to the climate of northern Sweden/Finland will prevail after 75000 years from now. The main changes caused by ice sheet are the downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in the sea level. In addition, changes in groundwater head and flux are foreseen. As a response from climatic changes tundra and permafrost will appear

  11. Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devezas, T.; LePoire, D.; Matias, J.C.O.; Silva, A.M.P. [University Beira Interior, Covilha (Portugal). Faculty of Engineering

    2008-02-15

    Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.

  12. Dabigatran and myocardial infarction: a foggy scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pontillo D

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Daniele Pontillo,1 Nicolino Patruno21Division of Cardiology, Hospital Complex Belcolle, Pavilion Montefiascone Montefiascone, Italy; 2Division of Cardiology, San Giuseppe Hospital, Albano Laziale (RM, ItalyThe pooled analysis from Clemens et al1 furnishes an up-to-date contribution on the scenario of the risk of myocardial infarction (MI of patients on dabigatran in any disease setting, formulating a "non-guilty" sentence in favor of dabigatran in terms of net clinical benefit, even though the authors did find an absolute increase in MIs. We believe that this contribution may represent further evidence favoring the overall efficacy of dabigatran, in agreement with data from Hohnloser et al2 who analyzed the cardiovascular (CV ischemic outcomes from the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-term anticoagulant therapy study and finding no statistically significant difference of MI between dabigatran and the comparison treatment, and with those from Dans et al3 who considered solely CV mortality with no further discrimination. Essentially, this represents the leitmotif of the last three years after the revised adjudication of cardiovascular events in the RE-LY study4 with a non-significant increase in MIs with dabigatran at any dose (for 150 mg twice a day, relative risk 1.27, 0.94–1.71, P=0.12.View original paper by Clemens and colleagues.

  13. Inflationary scenario from higher curvature warped spacetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, Narayan [Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Department of Physical Sciences, Nadia, West Bengal (India); Paul, Tanmoy [Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Department of Theoretical Physics, Kolkata (India)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a five dimensional warped spacetime, in presence of the higher curvature term like F(R) = R + αR{sup 2} in the bulk, in the context of the two-brane model. Our universe is identified with the TeV scale brane and emerges as a four dimensional effective theory. From the perspective of this effective theory, we examine the possibility of ''inflationary scenario'' by considering the on-brane metric ansatz as an FRW one. Our results reveal that the higher curvature term in the five dimensional bulk spacetime generates a potential term for the radion field. Due to the presence of radion potential, the very early universe undergoes a stage of accelerated expansion and, moreover, the accelerating period of the universe terminates in a finite time. We also find the spectral index of curvature perturbation (n{sub s}) and the tensor to scalar ratio (r) in the present context, which match with the observational results based on the observations of Planck (Astron. Astrophys. 594, A20, 2016). (orig.)

  14. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  15. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sevilla, J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about ±2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  16. ENEL's DSM actions in the international scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliva, P.; Russo, S.

    1997-01-01

    In the framework of national policies which, since the end of the 70s, have had the target of making consumers rationally use the natural sources, in particular energy, and in the pursuit of environmental goals, the Governments and the utilities have driven several DSM (Demand-Side Management) actions, in many countries. The activities implemented by ENEL have included the analysis of the different components of the energy chain, from the primary sources to the final uses in industry, agriculture, residential and commercial buildings. This is in order to improve the energy efficiency by new electrotechnologies and more effective appliances. ENEL has carried out commercial initiatives by specific contractual agreements based on the marginal costs of the electric service. The paper explains ENEL's strategies and the actions implemented by the utility on DMS; the results in terms of energy efficiency, electric demand dynamics and of load curve changing are also explained. Finally the paper explores the DSM perspectives in the Italian future scenario, where energy companies will act in a more competitive market. (author)

  17. Recent scenario of obesity and male fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, K K; Chambial, S; Dwivedi, S; Misra, S; Sharma, P

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this review was to provide current scenario linking obesity and male fertility. Obesity has been linked to male fertility because of lifestyle changes, internal hormonal environment alterations, and sperm genetic factors. A few studies assessing the impact of obesity on sperm genetic factor have been published, but they did not lead to a strong consensus. Our objective was to explore further the relationship between sperm genetic factor and obesity. There are emerging facts that obesity negatively affects male reproductive potential not only by reducing sperm quality, but in particular it alters the physical and molecular structure of germ cells in the testes and ultimately affects the maturity and function of sperm cells. Inhibition of microRNA in the male pronucleus of fertilized zygotes produces offspring of phenotypes of variable severity depending on miRNAs ratios. Hence, these RNAs have a role in the oocyte development during fertilization and in embryo development, fetal survival, and offspring phenotype. It has been reported that the miRNA profile is altered in spermatozoa of obese males, however, the impact of these changes in fertilization and embryo health remains as yet not known. © 2014 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

  18. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  19. GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

    2010-05-01

    In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

  20. A Simulated Clinical Skills Scenario to Teach Interprofessional Teamwork to Health Profession Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eileen Adel Herge

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Eastern Pennsylvania Delaware Geriatric Education Center developed an Interprofessional Clinical Skills Scenario (CSS to facilitate development of teamwork skills, specifically decision making, communication and collaboration, in health professions students in medicine, nursing, pharmacy, occupational and physical therapy programs. The case scenario provides students with the opportunity to practice communication and collaboration with a team and standardized patient and caregiver in a simulated clinical setting. The CSS was integrated into an existing occupational therapy course in 2011. Students were recruited by faculty from various schools (health professions, pharmacy, nursing, medicine throughout the university to participate in the CSS. The program evaluation included demographic assessment, process, and outcome measures. 166 students have participated in the CSS. Pre- and post-tests measured students' attitude toward healthcare teams. A Team Observation Tool was used by faculty and standardized patients/caregivers to evaluate student teams on communication, information sharing, and team interaction. A satisfaction survey was completed by the learners at the end of the CSS. This simulated Clinical Skills Scenario is a practical, interactive exercise that allows teams of interprofessional students to practice teamwork skills and patient-centered care with standardized patients and caregivers. Following a review of the learning activity and evaluation tools, the authors reflect on the effectiveness of the evaluation process for this CSS.

  1. Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

    2016-01-01

    Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

  2. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  3. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  4. Study of FCNC-mediated rare Bs decays in a single universal extra dimension scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohanta, R.; Giri, A. K.

    2007-01-01

    We study the rare semileptonic and radiative leptonic B s decays in the universal extra dimension model. In this scenario, with a single extra dimension, there exists only one new parameter beyond those of the standard model, which is the inverse of the compactification radius R. We find that with the additional contributions due to the Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes the branching ratios of the rare B s decays are enhanced from their corresponding standard model values and the zero point of the forward-backward asymmetries are shifted towards the left

  5. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  6. The Influence of Hypothetical Death Scenarios on Multidimensional End-of-Life Care Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dassel, Kara B; Utz, Rebecca; Supiano, Katherine; McGee, Nancy; Latimer, Seth

    2018-01-01

    Differences in end-of-life (EOL) care preferences (eg, location of death, use of life-sustaining treatments, openness to hastening death, etc) based on hypothetical death scenarios and associated physical and/or cognitive losses have yet to be investigated within the palliative care literature. The purpose of this study was to explore the multidimensional EOL care preferences in relation to 3 different hypothetical death scenarios: pancreatic cancer (acute death), Alzheimer disease (gradual death), and congestive heart failure (intermittent death). General linear mixed-effects regression models estimated whether multidimensional EOL preferences differed under each of the hypothetical death scenarios; all models controlled for personal experience and familiarity with the disease, presence of an advance directive, religiosity, health-related quality of life, and relevant demographic characteristics. A national sample of healthy adults aged 50 years and older (N = 517) completed electronic surveys detailing their multidimensional preferences for EOL care for each hypothetical death scenario. The average age of the participants was 60.1 years (standard deviation = 7.6), 74.7% were female, and 66.1% had a college or postgraduate degree. Results revealed significant differences in multidimensional care preferences between hypothetical death scenarios related to preferences for location of death (ie, home vs medical facility) and preferences for life-prolonging treatment options. Significant covariates of participants' multidimensional EOL care preferences included age, sex, health-related quality of life, and religiosity. Our hypothesis that multidimensional EOL care preferences would differ based on hypothetical death scenarios was partially supported and suggests the need for disease-specific EOL care discussions.

  7. Diagnosis and management of narcolepsy in the Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin Sureshbabu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The diagnosis and management of narcolepsy in the Indian context needs to be revisited especially in the wake of concerns raised by sleep medicine experts that the entity could be formidably underdiagnosed, as well as undertreated in our setting. Materials and Methods: The history, clinical records, polysomnographic/multiple sleep latency test data, and treatment records of five hundred consecutive patients attending a dedicated sleep clinic between the years 2013 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. The response to treatment measures and improvement in daytime functioning were periodically assessed by personal/telephonic interview and E-mail communication. Results: Thirteen patients were diagnosed with narcolepsy based on the standard criteria of which three had cataplexy. The mean age of presentation was 23.23 years and the male:female ratio was 2.25:1. The mean duration from the onset of symptoms to diagnosis was 4.2 years. Two patients responded to nonpharmacological interventions alone, and six to modafinil, while two patients remained symptomatic and required treatment with methylphenidate. One patient was lost to follow-up, while two others are due for their first follow-up. Conclusion: A refurbished outlook of the diagnostic methodology and treatment paths tailored to our clinical scenario can potentially impact the future of narcolepsy management and research in our country.

  8. Probing RS scenarios of flavour at LHC via leptonic channels

    CERN Document Server

    Ledroit, F; Morel, J

    2007-01-01

    We study a purely leptonic signature of the Randall-Sundrum scenario with Standard Model fields in the bulk at LHC: the contribution from the exchange of Kaluza-Klein (KK) excitations of gauge bosons to the clear Drell-Yan reaction. We show that this contribution is detectable (even with the low luminosities of the LHC initial regime) for KK masses around the TeV scale and for sufficiently large lepton couplings to KK gauge bosons. Such large couplings can be compatible with ElectroWeak precision data on the Zff coupling in the framework of the custodial O(3) symmetry recently proposed, for specific configurations of lepton localizations (along the extra dimension). These configurations can simultaneously reproduce the correct lepton masses, while generating acceptably small Flavour Changing Neutral Current (FCNC) effects. This LHC phenomenological analysis is realistic in the sense that it is based on fermion localizations which reproduce all the quark/lepton masses plus mixing angles and respect FCNC constr...

  9. Generalized nonminimal couplings in Randall-Sundrum scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencar, G.; Jardim, I. C.; Landim, R. R.; Muniz, C. R.; Costa Filho, R. N.

    2016-06-01

    The geometrical localization mechanism in Randall-Sundrum (RS) scenarios is extended by considering the coupling between a quadratic mass term and geometrical tensors. Since the quadratic term is symmetric, tensors with two symmetric indices have to be taken into account. These are the Ricci and the Einstein tensors. For the Ricci tensor, it is shown that a localized zero mode exists while that is not possible for the Einstein tensor. It is already known that the Ricci scalar generates a localized solution but the metrics do not. Therefore, it can be concluded that divergenceless tensors do not localize the zero mode of the gauge fields. The result is valid for any warp factor recovering the RS metrics at the boundaries and, therefore, is valid for RS I and II models. We also compute resonances for all couplings. These are calculated using the transfer matrix method. The cases studied consider the standard RS with deltalike branes and branes generated by kinks and domain walls as well. The parameters are changed to control the thickness of the smooth brane. We find that, for all cases considered, geometrical coupling does not generate resonances. This enforces similar results for the coupling with the Ricci scalar and points to the existence of some unidentified fundamental structure of these couplings.

  10. Endoscopic haemostasis: an overview of procedures and clinical scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Jérémie; Legros, Romain; Chaussade, Stanislas; Sautereau, Denis

    2014-09-01

    Acute gastrointestinal bleeding is among the most urgent situations in daily gastroenterological practise. Endoscopy plays a key role in the diagnosis and treatment of such cases. Endoscopic haemostasis is probably the most important technical challenge that must be mastered by gastroenterologists. It is essential for both the management of acute gastrointestinal haemorrhage and the prevention of bleeding during high-risk endoscopic procedures. During the last decade, endoscopic haemostasis techniques and tools have grown in parallel with the number of devices available for endotherapy. Haemostatic powders, over-the-scope clips, haemostatic forceps, and other emerging technologies have changed daily practise and complement the standard available armamentarium (injectable, thermal, and mechanical therapy). Although there is a lack of strong evidence-based information on these procedures because of the difficulty in designing statistically powerful trials on this topic, physicians must be aware of all available devices to be able to choose the best haemostatic tool for the most effective procedure. We herein present an overview of procedures and clinical scenarios to optimise the management of gastrointestinal bleeding in daily practise. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Scenarios for economy and environment in Central and Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, J.C.; Hettelingh, J.P.; Maas, R.J.M.

    1996-10-01

    In 1993 an integrated assessment of the World Bank developed economic scenarios of Central and Eastern European countries was carried out, primarily for emissions, deposition and concentrations of SO x , NO x Particulates, Cadmium en VOCs. Other topics dealt with were quality of soils, groundwater and rivers in Europe. The report forms a background document to the World Bank's 'Environmental Action Programme or Central and Eastern Europe' (EAP). Economic development in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is far from favorable. Production and consumption have declined by 70% compared to 1990. However, economic prospects seem to be better. The World Bank expects that economic growth will be supported by structural shifts in the production process towards less material-intensive production and reliance on resources. Emissions have been reduced significantly compared to 1990. If in a period of economic recovery, the newly installed capital stock is geared to Western European standards, further reductions may be achieved. To improve the energy efficiency of CEE countries, energy prices will have to increase. It has been assumed that they will harmonize with Western European energy prices. Hot spots are defined as those regions which, by 2010, are still expected to suffer from an exceedance of particulates, SO 2 or cadmium concentrations with respect to WHO air quality guidelines. These regional hot spots can be assisted by locally accelerating investments in new capital equipment in such a way that the whole capital stock will operate with Western European Standards by 2010. Not all environmental problems can be resolved by 2010. Implementation of all best available technologies in CEE is necessary, if all the environmental problems are to be solved. (Abstract Truncated)

  12. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  13. Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

    OpenAIRE

    Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

    2015-01-01

    There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as a process for research through design. This methodology consists of a six step scenario development approach, combined with a general conceptual design phase. The scenario of a (plausible and think...

  14. Power system transformation toward renewables: Investment scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Egerer, Jonas; Schill, Wolf-Peter

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  15. Designing learning scenarios for serious games with ARGILE

    OpenAIRE

    Nour El Mawas

    2014-01-01

    The design of Serious Games for training in complex areas of expertise presents many difficulties related to trainers’ participation in the design phase, the formalization of scenarios describing highly complex situations, the limited number of scenarios in Serious Games due to their high costs, and the low re-use level of real-life scenarios. This study proposes functional and technical infrastructure with ARGILE (Architecture for Representations, Games, Interactions, and Learning among Expe...

  16. Toward predictive scenarios of planetary migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruteau, Clement

    2008-01-01

    The recent detection of extra-solar planets has provided an exciting opportunity to test our theories of planet formation and evolution. An impressive result is the significant proportion of giant planets located much closer to their star than Mercury is from our own Sun. These planets should have formed further out in the protoplanetary disc, thus one needs to explain how they could move closer to their host star. Remarkably enough, such an explanation was proposed well before the discovery of the first exo-planet. It considered the interaction between a planet and the protoplanetary disc, which leads to a decrease of the planet's semi-major axis. This is known as planetary migration. Many studies have shown that the migration timescale of low-mass planets is much shorter than the lifetime of the disc. All planets should therefore have migrated to the vicinity of their host star. This is at least in contradiction with the locations of the planets in our Solar System. In order to elaborate predictive scenarios of planet formation and evolution, it is of primary interest to refine our understanding of disc-planet interactions. The inclusion of the disc self-gravity is an illustration of this. With analytical and numerical arguments, I show that discarding the self-gravity leads to a significant overestimate of the differential Lindblad torque for migrating low-mass planets. Another aspect explored in this thesis is the impact of the gas thermodynamics on migration. I show that the thermodynamic evolution of the disc induces an additional contribution to the corotation torque, which may dramatically slow down or even reverse the migration of low-mass planets. (author) [fr

  17. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  18. The Brazilian external individual monitoring scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauricio, Claudia L.P.; Silva, Claudio R. da; Cunha, Paulo G. da

    2015-01-01

    In order to improve radiation protection it is necessary to have knowledge of the occupational radiation dose levels in all radiation facilities. This information comes from individual monitoring services, which are responsible for measuring and providing information about workers' radiation exposure. In 1981, the Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) of Brazil starts to develop a comprehensive system for regulation and storage of occupational radiation dose. This paper starts with an overview of the evolution of the Brazilian authorization and data storage system for external individual monitoring. It starts with a rule for authorization of all Brazilian photon individual monitoring services and the obligation for them to send the measured dose to CNEN. Up to now there is no regulation for neutron individual monitoring. The aim of this paper is to present the current scenario of the Brazilian external monitoring system, reinforcing its importance and remaining problems. The number of monitored workers greatly increases every year, having surpassed 150,000 people monitored. The stored data show that the mean annual occupational external dose is decreasing from 2.4 mSv in 1987 to about 0.6 mSv, in 2012, but there is still some not realistic very high dose measured (higher than 100 mSv), without investigation. About 80% of the annual dose values are lower than the monthly register level. As expected, the higher real photon doses are found in Nuclear Medicine, Industrial Radiology and Interventional Radiology. All recorded annual neutron dose values are lower than 20 mSv. (author)

  19. Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal

    2011-01-01

    We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. - Research Highlights: → Climate policy scenarios are assessed with differentiated commitments in carbon emission control supported by Technology Transfer Protocols. → Donor countries finance, via carbon-tax revenues, the exports of carbon-free technologies in developing countries helping to get a new international agreement. → Developing countries experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and secondary benefits. → Under Technology Protocols alone and

  20. Simulating ITER steady-state operation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Casper, T.A.; Campbell, D.J.; Snipes, J.A.; Bulmer, R.; LoDestro, L.L.; Meyer, W.H.; Pearlstein, L.D.

    2015-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. ITER steady-state operation aims at demonstrating fully non-inductive plasma operation at a moderate fusion power multiplication factor (Q) of about 5, for long burn durations of up to 3000 s. In this work, this operational capability is studied using an advanced free-boundary transport simulation code, CORSICA [1-3], including relevant physics and engineering constraints. The tokamak discharge modelling capability of the CORSICA code has been improved by integrating realistic source modules for heating and current drive and a parameterized EPED1 pedestal model. The electro-magnetic ITER machine description is computed using the recent design parameters and the latest source configurations are taken into account. This work has been performed to study the feasibility of the ITER steady-state operation. Although the evolution of internal transport barriers (ITBs) are not yet included in this study, a higher energy confinement over the H-mode confinement (H98>1) is assumed by maintaining a reversed safety factor (q) profile during the flat-top phase. This paper presents several ITER steady-state operation scenarios, including a reference 9 MA case, and also suggests a potential approach for achieving fully non-inductive ITER steady-state operation with Q>5. References: [1] Crotinger, J.A. et al, 1997 LLNL Report UCRL-ID-126284; NTIS PB2005-102154; [2] Casper, T.A. et al, 2010 23. Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (Daejeon, Korea) ITR/P1-19 accepted for publication in Nuclear Fusion; [3] Kim, S.H. et al, 2012 24. Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, USA) ITR/P1-13. (authors)

  1. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  2. The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1984-01-01

    The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

  3. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  4. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand......, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  5. Relative evaluation on decommissioning accident scenarios of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Choi, Byung-Seon; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Hyun, Dong-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hyoung; Jo, Kyung-Hwa; Seo, Jae-Seok; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This paper suggests relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. ► The importance of scenarios can be performed by using AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method. ► The AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method guarantee reliability of the importance evaluation. -- Abstract: This paper suggests the evaluation method of relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The evaluation method consists of AHP method and Sugeno fuzzy integral method. This method will guarantee the reliability of relative importance evaluation for decommissioning accident scenarios.

  6. VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Data sets of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments with transient...

  7. VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: Data sets of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments with...

  8. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  9. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account.

  10. Waterflooding optimization in uncertain geological scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Suwartadi, Eka; Foss, Bjarne

    2013-01-01

    , robust optimization has been suggested to improve and robustify optimal control strategies. In robust optimization of an oil reservoir, the water injection and production borehole pressures (bhp) are computed such that the predicted net present value (NPV) of an ensemble of permeability field...... of the permeability field from the production data. For open-loop implementations, previous test case studies presented in the literature, show that a traditional robust optimization strategy (RO) gives a higher expected NPV with lower NPV standard deviation than a conventional reactive strategy. We present and study...

  11. Reconfigurable radio systems network architectures and standards

    CERN Document Server

    Iacobucci, Maria Stella

    2013-01-01

    This timely book provides a standards-based view of the development, evolution, techniques and potential future scenarios for the deployment of reconfigurable radio systems.  After an introduction to radiomobile and radio systems deployed in the access network, the book describes cognitive radio concepts and capabilities, which are the basis for reconfigurable radio systems.  The self-organizing network features introduced in 3GPP standards are discussed and IEEE 802.22, the first standard based on cognitive radio, is described. Then the ETSI reconfigurable radio systems functional ar

  12. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Md Akram Hussain

    2013-01-01

    other major cancer programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR′B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  13. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-10-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR'B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  14. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL; Stephen, Jamie [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Stumborg, Mark [AAFC; Fenton, James [Fenton & Associates; Mani, Sudhagar [University of Georgia

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  15. Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

    2017-12-01

    are subject to errors due to the many unknowns. Nevertheless, the order of magnitude of the disasters we estimate is correct as has been shown by the fact that 2 out of 7 Himalayan disaster scenarios published in March 2005 came true within factors of about 2.5 (the consequences of the 2005 Kashmir and the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes.)

  16. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  17. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  18. Decentralized Utility Maximization in Heterogeneous Multicell Scenarios with Interference Limited and Orthogonal Air Interfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla Ingo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Overlapping coverage of multiple radio access technologies provides new multiple degrees of freedom for tuning the fairness-throughput tradeoff in heterogeneous communication systems through proper resource allocation. This paper treats the problem of resource allocation in terms of optimum air interface and cell selection in cellular multi-air interface scenarios. We find a close to optimum allocation for a given set of voice users with minimum QoS requirements and a set of best-effort users which guarantees service for the voice users and maximizes the sum utility of the best-effort users. Our model applies to arbitrary heterogeneous scenarios where the air interfaces belong to the class of interference limited systems like UMTS or to a class with orthogonal resource assignment such as TDMA-based GSM or WLAN. We present a convex formulation of the problem and by using structural properties thereof deduce two algorithms for static and dynamic scenarios, respectively. Both procedures rely on simple information exchange protocols and can be operated in a completely decentralized way. The performance of the dynamic algorithm is then evaluated for a heterogeneous UMTS/GSM scenario showing high-performance gains in comparison to standard load-balancing solutions.

  19. Adaptation to the Safety Instruction IS-30 on PCI for the scenario of continuity in the operation of CN Garona

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, D.; Ayllon, J. C.

    2015-01-01

    Despite currently being in the situation of cessation of operation, Nuclear has maintained the Adaptation Program for Garona NPP to safety instruction IS-30 active. Most of the criteria included in the Fire Prevention standard can be considered as completely satisfied. for the rest of the criteria, Garona NPP has defined adequate action plans which, in the scenario of continuing plant operation, will make it possible to be completely adapted to the standard within the established deadlines. (Author)

  20. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A.; Kautsky, F.; Svensson, N.O.; Ledoux, E.

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs

  1. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A. [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N.O. [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G. de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  2. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  3. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  4. Decision Driven Scenario Planning for Process-Level Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemarck, Thomas J.; Payne, Tiffani D.

    2005-01-01

    This article builds on previous work that classified types of scenario planning as effective or relevant for particular situations, by adding consideration for levels within the organization. In addition, the argument is built for using a particular form of scenarios to anticipate or explore process level problems and outcomes. The problem of…

  5. An Approach to Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an operation-oriented approach for traffic management scenario generation, analysis and evaluation. We start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and

  6. Risk Assessment Methodology for CO2 Storage: The Scenario Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wildenborg, A.F.B.; Leijnse, A.L.; Kreft, E.; Nepveu, M.N.; Obdam, A.N.M.; Orlic, B.; Wipfler, E.L.; Grift, B. van der; Kesteren, W. van; Gaus, I.; Czernichowski-Lauriol, I.; Torfs, P.; Wójcik, R.

    2005-01-01

    This chapter introduces a "scenario approach," which is used as a methodology for the long-term safety assessment of underground CO2 storage and to demonstrate its applicability in an example of safety assessment. This developed methodology consists of three main parts-scenario analysis, model

  7. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  8. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...

  9. Making scenarios for nature policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dammers, E.; Hinsberg, van A.; Vader, J.; Wiersinga, W.A.

    2012-01-01

    The subsequent building blocks of the scenario study enable policymakers to gradually gain insight into alternative desirable future states of nature and alternative policy-strategies to realize them. This is further stimulated by the character of the scenarios, which contain not only qualitative

  10. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  11. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...

  12. Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

    This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

  13. Recommendations of activity restriction in high-risk pregnancy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendix, Jane; Hegaard, Hanne Kristine; Bergholt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    activity restriction more often than obstetricians in five of the nine scenarios, in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes, preterm labour, cervical ripening, total placenta praevia, and intrauterine growth restriction, whereas no differences were found in the remaining scenarios. Compared...

  14. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    The paper presents a new scenario-based appraisal methodology (SEAM), which has been developed for transport infrastructure planning. SEAM aims at dealing with uncertainty in the planning environment in a more systematic way than is usually the case when applying scenario analysis. Specifically, ...

  15. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  16. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  17. Revisiting kaon physics in general Z scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoi Endo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available New physics contributions to the Z penguin are revisited in the light of the recently-reported discrepancy of the direct CP violation in K→ππ. Interference effects between the standard model and new physics contributions to ΔS=2 observables are taken into account. Although the effects are overlooked in the literature, they make experimental bounds significantly severer. It is shown that the new physics contributions must be tuned to enhance B(KL→π0νν¯, if the discrepancy of the direct CP violation is explained with satisfying the experimental constraints. The branching ratio can be as large as 6×10−10 when the contributions are tuned at the 10% level.

  18. VoLTE performance in railway scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sniady, Aleksander; Sønderskov, Morten; Soler, José

    2015-01-01

    GSM-Railways (GSM-R) is the current standard for railway voice and data communication. GSM-R provides railway specific voice services, such as Railway Emergency Call (REC). GSM-R provides also the European Train Control System (ETCS), which offers in-cab signaling and Automatic Train Protection...... (ATP). Despite these features and services, GSM-R has various major shortcomings. Therefore, alternative technologies are considered to replace GSM-R and become the next generation railway mobile communication network. 3GPP Long Term Evolution (LTE) is a likely candidate for GSM-R replacement. LTE...... communication is still a crucial service for railways. Regardless of its advantages, LTE can only become a railway communication technology if it provides voice communication fulfilling railway requirements. This paper presents how Voice over LTE (VoLTE) can be used to build railway communication services...

  19. Model checking exact cost for attack scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

    2017-01-01

    . However, current model checking does not encompass the exact cost analysis of an attack, which is standard for attack trees. Our first contribution is the logic erPCTL with cost-related operators. The extended logic allows to analyse the probability of an event satisfying given cost bounds and to compute......Attack trees constitute a powerful tool for modelling security threats. Many security analyses of attack trees can be seamlessly expressed as model checking of Markov Decision Processes obtained from the attack trees, thus reaping the benefits of a coherent framework and a mature tool support...... the exact cost of an event. Our second contribution is the model checking algorithm for erPCTL. Finally, we apply our framework to the analysis of attack trees....

  20. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    In recent years, the paradigm of chemical management system has changed from being toxicity oriented and media based to being risk oriented and receptor based. This trend is evident not only regarding environmental quality standards, but also for industrial chemical regulations. Political...... instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... and managing the risks posed by industrial chemicals and providing appropriate safety information to their users (EC, 2007). However, to ensure a high level of protection of human health and the environment, there is a need to consider ‘aggregate exposure’ including background exposures from environment which...

  1. Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

  2. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

  3. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  4. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  5. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  6. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-01

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  7. Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anniken Enger

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

  8. The Dynamics of Standardization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunsson, Nils; Rasche, Andreas; Seidl, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper suggests that when the phenomenon of standards and standardization is examined from the perspective of organization studies, three aspects stand out: the standardization of organizations, standardization by organizations and standardization as (a form of) organization. Following a comp...

  9. ShakeMap/Hazus Scenario Projects and Support for the New Madrid 2011 National Level Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bausch, D.

    2011-12-01

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have coordinated on the development of new products that support an extensive library of ShakeMap scenarios, largely based on the USGS National Hazard Map sources of earthquakes that are supporting Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) loss estimations. These scenarios are used to support a broad range of emergency management activities, including mitigation, recovery and preparedness planning, as well as exercises for response. We have successfully documented where these scenarios have led to risk reduction actions. To date these have been implemented as pilot studies under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) in Washington, Utah, Nevada and more recently in New England. As a result of these ShakeMap/HAZUS demonstration projects, we developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for producing standardized loss mapping templates. These maps and associated tables help translate earthquake loss information to support a broad range of emergency management activities. The SOP includes step by step instructions with standardized map templates, symbology and terminology, which was initiated in support of the New Madrid 2011 National Level Exercise. We developed enhancements to the integration of ShakeMap and Hazus based on the NLE scenarios that can be implemented for other scenarios, as well as real earthquake events. The NLE was especially challenging as 8 States were impacted. A new utility developed internally by FEMA (EQExport) greatly expedited the data flow by automatically exporting the SQL based results into compressed geodatabases, as well as implementing custom map templates, reports and Google Earth KML files. This free open source utility provides the basis for automating map and results production from the Hazus earthquake model. Another development for NLE was to display results data into FlexViewers both inside and outside of FEMA. We benefited from a new real

  10. Beyond the Standard Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lykken, Joseph D.; /Fermilab

    2010-05-01

    - to those who get close enough to listen - new directions for BSM model building. Contrary to popular shorthand jargon, supersymmetry (SUSY) is not a BSM model: it is a symmetry principle characterizing a BSM framework with an infinite number of models. Indeed we do not even know the full dimensionality of the SUSY parameter space, since this presumably includes as-yet-unexplored SUSY-breaking mechanisms and combinations of SUSY with other BSM principles. The SUSY framework plays an important role in BSM physics partly because it includes examples of models that are 'complete' in the same sense as the Standard Model, i.e. in principle the model predicts consequences for any observable, from cosmology to b physics to precision electroweak data to LHC collisions. Complete models, in addition to being more explanatory and making connections between diverse phenomena, are also much more experimentally constrained than strawman scenarios that focus more narrowly. One sometimes hears: 'Anything that is discovered at the LHC will be called supersymmetry.' There is truth behind this joke in the sense that the SUSY framework incorporates a vast number of possible signatures accessible to TeV colliders. This is not to say that the SUSY framework is not testable, but we are warned that one should pay attention to other promising frameworks, and should be prepared to make experimental distinctions between them. Since there is no formal classification of BSM frameworks I have invented my own. At the highest level there are six parent frameworks: (1) Terascale supersymmetry; (2) PNGB Higgs; (3) New strong dynamics; (4) Warped extra dimensions; (5) Flat extra dimensions; and (6) Hidden valleys. Here is the briefest possible survey of each framework, with the basic idea, the generic new phenomena, and the energy regime over which the framework purports to make comprehensive predictions.

  11. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Kevin L.; Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO 2 emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO 2 emissions is achievable, even when all CO 2 sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria

  12. Model Independent Framework for Analysis of Scenarios with Multiple Heavy Extra Quarks

    CERN Document Server

    Barducci, Daniele; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. The code will soon be publicly available and will be upgraded to include data from new searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analy...

  13. Assessment of Meteorological Drought Indices in Korea Using RCP 8.5 Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongwoo Jang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Diverse drought indices have been developed and used across the globe to assess and monitor droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI are drought indices that have been recently developed and are being used in the world’s leading countries. This study took place in Korea’s major observatories for drought prediction until 2100, using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 scenario. On the basis of the drought index measured by SPI, future climates were forecast to be humid, as the index would rise over time. In contrast, the RDI, which takes evapotranspiration into account, anticipated dry climates, with the drought index gradually falling over time. From the analysis of the drought index through the RCP 8.5 scenario, extreme drought intensity will be more likely to occur due to rising temperatures. To obtain the diversity of drought prediction, the evapotranspiration was deemed necessary for calculating meteorological droughts.

  14. Transitional dispersive scenarios driven by mesoscale flows on complex terrain under strong dry convective conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain under strong convective conditions, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain. The results and discussions presented arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under strong dry convective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. This paper analyses the importance of the identification and physical implications of transitional periods for air quality applications. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during these transitional periods implies a small (or null physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution.

  15. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

  16. Determination of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Daniel L.; Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David

    2013-01-01

    This paper expands on previous work that examined how large a fire a crew member could successfully survive and extinguish in the confines of a spacecraft. The hazards to the crew and equipment during an accidental fire include excessive pressure rise resulting in a catastrophic rupture of the vehicle skin, excessive temperatures that burn or incapacitate the crew (due to hyperthermia), carbon dioxide build-up or accumulation of other combustion products (e.g. carbon monoxide). The previous work introduced a simplified model that treated the fire primarily as a source of heat and combustion products and sink for oxygen prescribed (input to the model) based on terrestrial standards. The model further treated the spacecraft as a closed system with no capability to vent to the vacuum of space. The model in the present work extends this analysis to more realistically treat the pressure relief system(s) of the spacecraft, include more combustion products (e.g. HF) in the analysis and attempt to predict the fire spread and limiting fire size (based on knowledge of terrestrial fires and the known characteristics of microgravity fires) rather than prescribe them in the analysis. Including the characteristics of vehicle pressure relief systems has a dramatic mitigating effect by eliminating vehicle overpressure for all but very large fires and reducing average gas-phase temperatures.

  17. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, S.; Peck, C.; Stright, D.; Newes, E.; Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Hsu, S.; Bush, B.

    2015-02-01

    Biofuels are promoted in the United States through legislation, as one part of an overall strategy to lessen dependence on imported energy as well as to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (Office of the Biomass Program and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2008). For example, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable liquid transportation fuel in the U.S. marketplace by the year 2022 (U.S. Government, 2007). Meeting the volumetric targets has prompted an unprecedented increase in funding for biofuels research, much of it focused on producing ethanol and other fuel types from cellulosic feedstocks as well as additional biomass sources (such as oil seeds and algae feedstock). In order to help propel the biofuels industry, the U.S. government has enacted a variety of incentive programs (including subsidies, fixed capital investment grants, loan guarantees, vehicle choice credits, and corporate average fuel economy standards) -- the short-and long-term ramifications of which are not well understood. Efforts to better understand the impacts of incentive strategies can help policy makers to develop a policy suite which will foster industry development while reducing the financial risk associated with government support of the nascent biofuels industry.

  18. Natural NMSSM after LHC Run I and the Higgsino dominated dark matter scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Junjie; He, Yangle; Shang, Liangliang; Su, Wei; Zhang, Yang

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of the direct searches for SUSY at LHC Run I on the naturalness of the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM). For this end, we first scan the vast parameter space of the NMSSM to get the region where the fine tuning measures Δ Z and Δ h at the electroweak scale are less than about 50, then we implement by simulations the constraints of the direct searches on the parameter points in the region. Our results indicate that although the direct search experiments are effective in excluding the points, the parameter intervals for the region and also the minimum reaches of Δ Z and Δ h are scarcely changed by the constraints, which implies that the fine tuning of the NMSSM does not get worse after LHC Run I. Moreover, based on the results we propose a natural NMSSM scenario where the lightest neutralino χ̃ 1 0 as the dark matter (DM) candidate is Higgsino-dominated. In this scenario, Δ Z and Δ h may be as low as 2 without conflicting with any experimental constraints, and intriguingly χ̃ 1 0 can easily reach the measured DM relic density due to its significant Singlino component. We exhibit the features of the scenario which distinguish it from the other natural SUSY scenario, including the properties of its neutralino-chargino sector and scalar top quark sector. We emphasize that the scenario can be tested either through searching for 3l+E T miss signal at 14 TeV LHC or through future DM direct detection experiments.

  19. Policy scenarios for climate protection VI. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien fuer den Klimaschutz VI. Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.; Busche, Julia; Doering, Ulrike [Oeko-Institut, Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2013-03-15

    The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030. Alongside energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, additional measures in industrial processes also bring about substantial contributions to emission reductions.

  20. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.