WorldWideScience

Sample records for standard bbn scenario

  1. Baryon density in alternative BBN models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirilova, D.

    2002-10-01

    We present recent determinations of the cosmological baryon density ρ b , extracted from different kinds of observational data. The baryon density range is not very wide and is usually interpreted as an indication for consistency. It is interesting to note that all other determinations give higher baryon density than the standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) model. The differences of the ρ b values from the BBN predicted one (the most precise today) may be due to the statistical and systematic errors in observations. However, they may be an indication of new physics. Hence, it is interesting to study alternative BBN models, and the possibility to resolve the discrepancies. We discuss alternative cosmological scenarios: a BBN model with decaying particles (m ∼ MeV, τ ∼ sec) and BBN with electron-sterile neutrino oscillations, which permit to relax BBN constraints on the baryon content of the Universe. (author)

  2. BBN predictions for 4He

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.P.

    1993-01-01

    The standard model of the hot big bang assumes a homogeneous and isotropic Universe with gravity described by General Relativity and strong and electroweak interactions described by the Standard Model of particle physics. The hot big bang model makes the unavoidable prediction that the production of primordial elements occurred about one minute after the big band (referred to as big bang or primordial nucleosynthesis BBN). This review concerns the range of the primordial abundance of 4 He as predicted by standard BBN (i.e., primordial nucleosynthesis assuming a homogeneous distribution of baryons). In it the author discusses: (1) Uncertainties in the calculation of Y p (the mass fraction of primordial 4 He), (2) The expected range of Y p , (3) How the predictions stack up against the latest observations, and (4) The latest BBN bounds on Ω B h 2 and N ν . 13 refs., 2 figs

  3. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K. [Lloyd' s Register Consulting AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2013-10-15

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  4. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K.

    2013-10-01

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  5. The cosmic 6Li and 7Li problems and BBN with long-lived charged massive particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karsten, Jedamzik

    2007-01-01

    Charged massive particles (CHAMPs), when present during the Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) era, may significantly alter the synthesis of light elements when compared to a standard BBN scenario. This is due to the formation of bound states with nuclei. This paper presents a detailed numerical and analytical analysis of such CHAMP BBN. All reactions important for predicting light-element yields are calculated within the Born approximation. Three prior neglected effects are treated in detail: (a) photo destruction of bound states due to electromagnetic cascades induced by the CHAMP decay, (b) late-time efficient destruction/production of H 2 , Li 6 , and Li 7 due to reactions on charge Z = 1 nuclei bound to CHAMPs, and (c) CHAMP exchange between nuclei. Each of these effects may induce orders-of-magnitude changes in the final abundance yields. The study focusses on the impact of CHAMPs on a possible simultaneous solution of the Li 6 and Li 7 problems. It is shown that a prior suggested simultaneous solution of the Li 6 and Li 7 problems for a relic decaying at τ x ∼ 1000 s is only very weakly dependent on the relic being neutral or charged, unless its hadronic branching ratio is B h -4 very small. By use of a Monte-Carlo analysis it is shown that within CHAMP BBN the existence of further parameter space for a simultaneous solution of the Li 6 and Li 7 problem for long decay times τ x ≥ 10 6 s seems possible but fairly unlikely. (author)

  6. Ultra-cold WIMPs relics of non-standard pre-BBN cosmologies

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B

    2008-01-01

    We point out that in scenarios in which the Universe evolves in a non-standard manner during and after the kinetic decoupling of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), these relics can be much colder than in standard cosmological scenarios (i.e. can be ultra-cold), possibly leading to the formation of smaller first objects in hierarchical structure formation scenarios.

  7. The cosmic {sup 6}Li and {sup 7}Li problems and BBN with long-lived charged massive particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karsten, Jedamzik [Montpellier-2 Univ., Lab. de Physique Mathemathique et Theorique, C.N.R.S., 34 - Montpellier (France)

    2007-07-01

    Charged massive particles (CHAMPs), when present during the Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) era, may significantly alter the synthesis of light elements when compared to a standard BBN scenario. This is due to the formation of bound states with nuclei. This paper presents a detailed numerical and analytical analysis of such CHAMP BBN. All reactions important for predicting light-element yields are calculated within the Born approximation. Three prior neglected effects are treated in detail: (a) photo destruction of bound states due to electromagnetic cascades induced by the CHAMP decay, (b) late-time efficient destruction/production of H{sup 2}, Li{sup 6}, and Li{sup 7} due to reactions on charge Z = 1 nuclei bound to CHAMPs, and (c) CHAMP exchange between nuclei. Each of these effects may induce orders-of-magnitude changes in the final abundance yields. The study focusses on the impact of CHAMPs on a possible simultaneous solution of the Li{sup 6} and Li{sup 7} problems. It is shown that a prior suggested simultaneous solution of the Li{sup 6} and Li{sup 7} problems for a relic decaying at {tau}{sub x} {approx} 1000 s is only very weakly dependent on the relic being neutral or charged, unless its hadronic branching ratio is B{sub h} << 10{sup -4} very small. By use of a Monte-Carlo analysis it is shown that within CHAMP BBN the existence of further parameter space for a simultaneous solution of the Li{sup 6} and Li{sup 7} problem for long decay times {tau}{sub x} {>=} 10{sup 6} s seems possible but fairly unlikely. (author)

  8. BBN based Quantitative Assessment of Software Design Specification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Heung-Seop; Park, Gee-Yong; Kang, Hyun-Gook; Kwon, Kee-Choon; Chang, Seung-Cheol

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), which is one of the important methods in assessing the overall safety of a nuclear power plant (NPP), requires quantitative reliability information of safety-critical software, but the conventional reliability assessment methods can not provide enough information for PSA of a NPP. Therefore current PSA which includes safety-critical software does not usually consider the reliability of the software or uses arbitrary values for it. In order to solve this situation this paper proposes a method that can produce quantitative reliability information of safety-critical software for PSA by making use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). BBN has generally been used to model an uncertain system in many research fields including the safety assessment of software. The proposed method was constructed by utilizing BBN which can combine the qualitative and the quantitative evidence relevant to the reliability of safety critical software. The constructed BBN model can infer a conclusion in a formal and a quantitative way. A case study was carried out with the proposed method to assess the quality of software design specification (SDS) of safety-critical software that will be embedded in a reactor protection system. The intermediate V and V results of the software design specification were used as inputs to the BBN model

  9. The standard and degenerate primordial nucleosynthesis versus recent experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esposito, S.; Mangano, G.; Miele, G.; Pisanti, O.

    2000-01-01

    We report the results on Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) based on an updated code, with accuracy of the order of 0.1% on He4 abundance, compared with the predictions of other recent similar analysis. We discuss the compatibility of the theoretical results, for vanishing neutrino chemical potentials, with the observational data. Bounds on the number of relativistic neutrinos and baryon abundance are obtained by a likelihood analysis. We also analyze the effect of large neutrino chemical potentials on primordial nucleosynthesis, motivated by the recent results on the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation spectrum. The BBN exclusion plots for electron neutrino chemical potential and the effective number of relativistic neutrinos are reported. We find that the standard BBN seems to be only marginally in agreement with the recent BOOMERANG and MAXIMA-1 results, while the agreement is much better for degenerate BBN scenarios for large effective number of neutrinos, N ν ∼ 10. (author)

  10. Preparation and preliminary evaluation of 99Tcm-HYNIC-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Xin; Zhang Yan; Jia Bing; Shi Jiyun; Wang Fan; Zhao Huiyun; Yu Zilin

    2007-01-01

    99 Tc m -HYNIC-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 is prepared by choosing Tricine and EDDA as coligands, and the in vitro stability and biodistribution are compared for the two compounds. The results of ITLC and HPLC analyses show that the labeling yield of both compounds is >95%, and the radiochemical purity (RCP) after purification of Sep-Pak C-18 cartridge is >99%. Both of the compounds show pretty good stability in saline and fetal bovine serum, but cysteine challenge assay shows that the stability of 99 Tc m -HYNIC(EDDA)- β-Ala-BBN (7-14) NH 2 is much better than 99 Tc m -HYNIC (Tricine)-β-Ala-BBN (7-14) NH 2 , with the RCP is >95% and 99 Tc m HYNIC (EDDA)-βAla-BBN (7-14)NH 2 and 99 Tc m -HYNIC (Tricine)-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 is defined as two-compartment model, with T 1/2α calculated to be 0.27 min and 1.55 min, and T 1/2β calculated to be 18.1 min and 29.7 min, respectively. Biodistribution reveals that the radio uptake of 99 Tc m -HYNIC(Tricine)-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 is higher than that of 99 Tc m -HYNIC(EDDA)-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 for all of tis- sues at all time points of the experiment. The uptake in kidneys for both compounds is relatively high, as the uptake in livers and intestines for 99 Tc m -HYNIC(Tricine)-β-Ala-BBN(7- 14)NH 2 is significantly higher than that for 99 Tc m -HYNIC(EDDA)-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 , which means that 99 Tc m -HYNIC(EDDA)-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 is mainly excreted through kidneys, while 99 Tc m -HYNIC(Tricine)-β-Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 is excreted through both kidneys and hepatobiliary system. The above data demonstrate that 99 Tc m -HYNIC(EDDA)-β- Ala-BBN(7-14)NH 2 possesses better chemical and biological properties. (authors)

  11. Constraining f(T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis. f(T) cosmology and BBN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capozziello, S. [Universita di Napoli ' ' Federico II' ' , Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant' Angelo, Dipartimento di Fisica ' ' E. Pancini' ' , Napoli (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Napoli (Italy); Gran Sasso Science Institute, L' Aquila (Italy); Lambiase, G. [University of Salerno, Dipartimento di Fisica E.R. Cainaiello, Fisciano (Italy); INFN, Gruppo Collegato di Salerno, Sezione di Napoli, Fisciano (Italy); Saridakis, E.N. [National Technical University of Athens, Department of Physics, Athens (Greece); Baylor University, CASPER, Physics Department, Waco, TX (United States)

    2017-09-15

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f(T) gravity. The three most studied viable f(T) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f(T) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints. (orig.)

  12. Constraining f(T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis: f(T) cosmology and BBN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capozziello, S; Lambiase, G; Saridakis, E N

    2017-01-01

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f ( T ) gravity. The three most studied viable f ( T ) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f ( T ) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints.

  13. Constraining f( T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis. f(T) cosmology and BBN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capozziello, S.; Lambiase, G.; Saridakis, E. N.

    2017-09-01

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f( T) gravity. The three most studied viable f( T) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f( T) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints.

  14. Constraining f(T) teleparallel gravity by big bang nucleosynthesis. f(T) cosmology and BBN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capozziello, S.; Lambiase, G.; Saridakis, E.N.

    2017-01-01

    We use Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) observational data on the primordial abundance of light elements to constrain f(T) gravity. The three most studied viable f(T) models, namely the power law, the exponential and the square-root exponential are considered, and the BBN bounds are adopted in order to extract constraints on their free parameters. For the power-law model, we find that the constraints are in agreement with those obtained using late-time cosmological data. For the exponential and the square-root exponential models, we show that for reliable regions of parameters space they always satisfy the BBN bounds. We conclude that viable f(T) models can successfully satisfy the BBN constraints. (orig.)

  15. Some nuclear physics aspects of BBN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coc, Alain

    2017-09-01

    Primordial or big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is now a parameter free theory whose predictions are in good overall agreement with observations. However, the 7 Li calculated abundance is significantly higher than the one deduced from spectroscopic observations. Nuclear physics solutions to this lithium problem have been investigated by experimental means. Other solutions which were considered involve exotic sources of extra neutrons which inevitably leads to an increase of the deuterium abundance, but this seems now excluded by recent deuterium observations.

  16. Implementing particle-in-cell plasma simulation code on the BBN TC2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sturtevant, J.E.; Maccabe, A.B.

    1990-01-01

    The BBN TC2000 is a multiple instruction, multiple data (MIMD) machine that combines a physically distributed memory with a logically shared memory programming environment using the unique Butterfly switch. Particle-In-Cell (PIC) plasma simulations model the interaction of charged particles with electric and magnetic fields. This paper describes the implementation of both a 1-D electrostatic and a 2 1/2-D electromagnetic PIC (particle-in-cell) plasma simulation code on a BBN TC2000. Performance is compared to implementations of the same code on the shared memory Sequent Balance and distributed memory Intel iPSC hypercube

  17. BBN: Description of the PLUM System as Used for MUC-4

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ayuso, Damaris; Boisen, Sean; Fox, Heidi; Gish, Herb; Ingria, Robert; Weischedel, Ralph

    1992-01-01

    .... In contrast, BBN's PLUM system (Probabilistic Language Understanding Model) was developed as part of a DARPA-funded research effort on integrating probabilistic language models with more traditional linguistic techniques...

  18. arXiv AlterBBN v2: A public code for calculating Big-Bang nucleosynthesis constraints in alternative cosmologies

    CERN Document Server

    Arbey, A.; Hickerson, K.P.; Jenssen, E.S.

    We present the version 2 of AlterBBN, an open public code for the calculation of the abundance of the elements from Big-Bang nucleosynthesis. It does not rely on any closed external library or program, aims at being user-friendly and allowing easy modifications, and provides a fast and reliable calculation of the Big-Bang nucleosynthesis constraints in the standard and alternative cosmologies.

  19. The BBN (Bolt Beranek and Newman) Knowledge Acquisition Project. Phase 1. Functional Description; Test Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-05-01

    Computers . " Symbolics. Inc. 8. Carnegie Group. Inc KnoiledgeCraft Carnegie Group, Inc.. 1985. .- 9. Moser, Margaret, An Overviev of NIKL. Section of BBN...ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS I0. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASK BBN Laboratories Inc. AREAAWoRIUNTNUMER_ 10 Moulton St. Cambridge, MA 02238 It...knowledge representation, expert systems; strategic computing , . A 20 ABSTRACT (Contnue an r rerse ide If neceaesary and Identify by block number) This

  20. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.

  1. Experimental challenge to the big-bang nucleosynthesis - Cosmological 7Li problem in BBN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubono, S.; Kawabata, T.; Hou, S. Q.; He, J. J.

    2018-04-01

    The primordial nucleosynthesis(BBN) right after the big bang (BB) is one of the key elements that basically support the BB model. The BBN is well known that it produced primarily light elements, and explains reasonably most of the elemental abundances. However, there remains an interesting and serious question. That is so called the cosmological 7Li problem in BBN. The BBN simulations using nuclear data together with the recent detailed micro-wave background measurements explain most of the light elements including D, 4He, etc, but the 7Li abundance is over predicted roughly by a factor of three. Although this problem should be investigated in all the fields relevant including physics and astronomical observations, I will concentrate my discussion on the nuclear physics side, especially the recent progress for studying the last possible major destruction process of 7Be, the 7Be(n,α)4He reaction, which would reduce the overproduction if the cross section is large. There are several efforts recently made for the 7Be(n,α)4He reaction in the world. A new theoretical estimate was made compiling all available data of the mirror reaction 7Li(p,α)4He, suggesting about one order smaller reaction rate than the ones currently being used (Wagoner rate). The n-TOF group measured some part of the s-wave components of the reaction, suggesting that the s-wave contributions are much smaller than the Wagoner rate. The p-wave component was measured clearly at RCNP, Osaka using the time-reverse reaction 4He(α,n)7Be, indicating that the p-wave contribution dominates at the effective temperature region for the BBN. However, the sum of the s-wave and p-wave contributions is about one order of magnitude smaller than the Wagoner rate. It should be of great interest to confirm by the indirect method, Trojan-Horse method to deduce cross sections at the effective temperature region, and also see the cross sections for a wider energy range systematically, which is under way by the BELICOS

  2. An exploratory study on 99mTc-RGD-BBN peptide scintimammography in the assessment of breast malignant lesions compared to 99mTc-3P4-RGD2.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianqian Chen

    Full Text Available This study aimed to explore the diagnostic performance of single photon emission computed tomography / computerized tomography (SPECT/CT using a new radiotracer 99mTc-RGD-BBN for breast malignant tumor compared with 99mTc-3P4-RGD2.6 female patients with breast malignant tumors diagnosed by fine needle aspiration cytology biopsy (FNAB who were scheduled to undergo surgery were included in the study. 99mTc-3P4-RGD2 and 99mTc-RGD-BBN were performed with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT at 1 hour after intravenous injection of 299 ± 30 MBq and 293 ± 32 MBq of radiotracers respectively at separate day. The results were evaluated by the Tumor to non-Tumor ratios (T/NT. 99mTc-RGD-BBN and 99mTc-3P4-RGD2 SPECT/CT images were interpreted independently by 3 experienced nuclear medicine physicians using a 3-point scale system. All of the samples were analyzed immunohistochemically to evaluate the integrin αvβ3 and gastrin-releasing peptide receptor (GRPR expression. The safety, biodistribution and radiation dosimetry of 99mTc-RGD-BBN were also evaluated in the healthy volunteers.No serious adverse events were reported in any of the patients during the study. The effective radiation dose entirely conformed to the relevant standards. A total of 6 palpable malignant lesions were detected using 99mTc-RGD-BBN SPECT/CT with clear uptake. All malignant lesions were also detected using 99mTc-3P4-RGD2 SPECT/CT. The results showed that five malignant lesions were with clear uptake and the other one with barely an uptake. 4 malignant cases were found with both αvβ3 and GRPR expression, 1 case with only GRPR positive expression (integrin αvβ3 negative and 1 case with only integrin αvβ3 positive expression (GRPR negative.99mTc-RGD-BBN is a safe agent for detecting breast cancer. 99mTc-RGD-BBN may have the potential to make up for the deficiency of 99mTc-3P4-RGD2 in the detection of breast cancer with only GRPR positive expression (integrin

  3. Thermal leptogenesis and the gravitino problem in the Asaka-Yanagida axion/axino dark matter scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, Howard; Lessa, Andre; Kraml, Sabine; Sekmen, Sezen

    2011-01-01

    A successful implementation of thermal leptogenesis requires the re-heat temperature after inflation T R to exceed ∼ 2 × 10 9 GeV. Such a high T R value typically leads to an overproduction of gravitinos in the early universe, which will cause conflicts, mainly with BBN constraints. Asaka and Yanagida (AY) have proposed that these two issues can be reconciled in the context of the Peccei-Quinn augmented MSSM (PQMSSM) if one adopts a mass hierarchy m(sparticle) > m(gravitino)>m(axino), with m(axino) ∼ keV. In this case, sparticle decays bypass the gravitino, and decay more quickly to the axino LSP, thus avoiding the BBN constraints. In addition, thermally produced gravitinos decay inertly to axion+axino, also avoiding BBN constraints. We calculate the relic abundance of mixed axion/axino dark matter in the AY scenario, and investigate under what conditions a value of T R sufficient for thermal leptogenesis can be generated. A high value of PQ breaking scale f a is needed to suppress overproduction of axinos, while a small vacuum misalignment angle θ i is needed to suppress overproduction of axions. The large value of f a results in late decaying neutralinos. We show that, to avoid BBN constraints, the AY scenario requires a rather low thermal abundance of neutralinos, while higher values of neutralino mass also help. We combine these constraint calculations along with entropy production from late decaying saxions, and find the saxion needs to be typically at least several times heavier than the gravitino. A successful implementation of the AY scenario suggests that LHC should discover a spectrum of SUSY particles consistent with weak scale supergravity; that the apparent neutralino abundance is low; that an axion direct detection signal (probably with m a in the sub-μeV range) may be possible, but no direct or indirect signals for WIMP dark matter should be observed

  4. Standard Establishment Through Scenarios (SETS): A new technique for occupational fitness standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blacklock, R E; Reilly, T J; Spivock, M; Newton, P S; Olinek, S M

    2015-01-01

    An objective and scientific task analysis provides the basis for establishing legally defensible Physical Employment Standards (PES), based on common and essential occupational tasks. Infrequent performance of these tasks creates challenges when developing PES based on criterion, or content validity. Develop a systematic approach using Subject Matter Experts (SME) to provide tasks with 1) an occupationally relevant scenario considered common to all personnel; 2) a minimum performance standard defined by time, distance, load or work. Examples provided here relate to the development of a new PES for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). SME of various experience are selected based on their eligibility criteria. SME are required to define a reasonable scenario for each task from personal experience, provide occupational performance requirements of the scenario in sub-groups, and discuss and agree by consensus vote on the final standard based on the definition of essential. A common and essential task for the CAF is detailed as a case example of process application. Techniques to avoid common SME rating errors are discussed and advantages to the method described. The SETS method was developed as a systematic approach to setting occupational performance standards and qualifying information from SME.

  5. Up-conversion emission of Er{sup 3+}/Yb{sup 3+}co-doped BaBi{sub 2}Nb{sub 2}O{sub 9} (BBN) phosphors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Façanha, M.X., E-mail: marcello.facanha@uece.br [Departamento de Química, Centro de Ciências, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, Ceará (Brazil); Faculdade de Educação de Crateús (FAEC), Universidade Estadual do Ceará (UECE), Fortaleza, Ceará (Brazil); Laboratório de Telecomunicações e Ciências e Engenharia de Materiais (LOCEM), Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, Ceará (Brazil); Nascimento, J.P.C. do [Departamento de Química, Centro de Ciências, Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, Ceará (Brazil); Laboratório de Telecomunicações e Ciências e Engenharia de Materiais (LOCEM), Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, Ceará (Brazil); Silva, M.A.S., E-mail: marceloassilva@yahoo.com.br [Laboratório de Telecomunicações e Ciências e Engenharia de Materiais (LOCEM), Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, Ceará (Brazil); and others

    2017-03-15

    On this paper, polycrystalline samples of the tetragonal systems BaBi{sub 2}Nb{sub 2}O{sub 9} (BBN) and BBN co-doped with Er{sup 3+}/Yb{sup 3+} (BBN: 0.04Er{sup 3+}yYb{sup 3+}, where y=0.02, 0.04, 0.06 and 0.08 mol%) were synthesized by the solid state method. The crystalline structure and photoluminescent properties of the ceramic phosphors were investigated by powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), Raman spectroscopy and spectral analysis of up-conversion (UC) emission. The results reveal that all compositions crystallize in the I4/mmm space group at room temperature, and show UC green emissions (centered at 525 nm and 550 nm) and red (around 660 nm) coming from ({sup 2}H{sub 11/2}, {sup 4}S{sub 3/2}→{sup 4}I{sub 15/2}) and ({sup 4}F{sub 9/2}→{sup 4}I{sub 15/2}) transitions, respectively, under excitation at 980 nm. Increasing variations of the Yb{sup 3+} sensitizer concentration in the host BBN, lead to a significant intensity increase in both UC emissions due to the efficiency of the energy-transfer process. The BBN: 0.04 mol%Er{sup 3+}0.08 mol%Yb{sup 3+} composition showed the higher intensity bands, thus establishing the BBN as an alternative host material for luminescent centers.

  6. Dynamical 3-Space Predicts Hotter Early Universe: Resolves CMB-BBN 7-Li and 4-He Abundance Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed abundances of 7-Li and 4-He are significantly inconsistent with the predictions from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN when using the $Lambda$CDM cosmological model together with the value for $Omega_B h^2 = 0.0224pm0.0009$ from WMAP CMB fluctuations, with the value from BBN required to fit observed abundances being $0.009 < Omega_B h^2 < 0.013$. The dynamical 3-space theory is shown to predict a 20% hotter universe in the radiation-dominated epoch, which then results in a remarkable parameter-free agreement between the BBN and the WMAP value for $Omega_B h^2$. The dynamical 3-space also gives a parameter-free fit to the supernova redshift data, and predicts that the flawed $Lambda$CDM model would require $Omega_Lambda = 0.73$ and $Omega_M = 0.27$ to fit the 3-space dynamics Hubble expansion, and independently of the supernova data. These results amount to the discovery of new physics for the early universe that is matched by numerous other successful observational and experimental tests.

  7. Dynamical 3-Space Predicts Hotter Early Universe: Resolves CMB-BBN 7-Li and 4-He Abundance Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed abundances of 7 Li and 4 He are significantly inconsistent with the pre- dictions from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN when using the CDM cosmolog- ical model together with the value for B h 2 = 0 : 0224 0 : 0009 from WMAP CMB fluctuations, with the value from BBN required to fit observed abundances being 0 : 009 < B h 2 < 0 : 013. The dynamical 3-space theory is shown to predict a 20% hot- ter universe in the radiation-dominated epoch, which then results in a remarkable parameter-free agreement between the BBN and the WMAP value for B h 2 . The dy- namical 3-space also gives a parameter-free fit to the supernova redshift data, and pre- dicts that the flawed CDM model would require = 0 : 73 and M = 0 : 27 to fit the 3-space dynamics Hubble expansion, and independently of the supernova data. These results amount to the discovery of new physics for the early universe that is matched by numerous other successful observational and experimental tests.

  8. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P.

    2012-09-01

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  9. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2012-09-15

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  10. Hadronic decay of late-decaying particles and big-bang nucleosynthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawasaki, Masahiro [Research Center for the Early Universe, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan)]. E-mail: masahiro_kawasaki@mac.com; Kohri, Kazunori [Department of Earth and Space Science, Osaka University, Osaka 560-0043 (Japan); Moroi, Takeo [Department of Physics, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan)

    2005-10-06

    We study the big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) scenario with late-decaying exotic particles with lifetime longer than {approx}1 s. With a late-decaying particle in the early universe, predictions of the standard BBN scenario can be significantly altered. Therefore, we derive constraints on its primordial abundance. We pay particular attention to hadronic decay modes of such particles. We see that the non-thermal production process of D, {sup 3}He and {sup 6}Li provides a stringent upper bound on the primordial abundance of late-decaying particles with hadronic branching ratio.

  11. Dual integrin and gastrin-releasing peptide receptor targeted tumor imaging using 18F-labeled PEGylated RGD-bombesin heterodimer 18F-FB-PEG3-Glu-RGD-BBN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhaofei; Yan, Yongjun; Chin, Frederic T; Wang, Fan; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2009-01-22

    Radiolabeled RGD and bombesin peptides have been extensively investigated for tumor integrin alpha(v)beta(3) and GRPR imaging, respectively. Due to the fact that many tumors are both integrin and GRPR positive, we designed and synthesized a heterodimeric peptide Glu-RGD-BBN, which is expected to be advantageous over the monomeric peptides for dual-receptor targeting. A PEG(3) spacer was attached to the glutamate alpha-amino group of Glu-RGD-BBN to enhance the (18)F labeling yield and to improve the in vivo kinetics. PEG(3)-Glu-RGD-BBN possesses the comparable GRPR and integrin alpha(v)beta(3) receptor-binding affinities as the corresponding monomers, respectively. The dual-receptor targeting properties of (18)F-FB-PEG(3)-Glu-RGD-BBN were observed in PC-3 tumor model. (18)F-FB-PEG(3)-Glu-RGD-BBN with high tumor contrast and favorable pharmacokinetics is a promising PET tracer for dual integrin and GRPR positive tumor imaging. This heterodimer strategy may also be an applicable method to develop other molecules with improved in vitro and in vivo characterizations for tumor diagnosis and therapy.

  12. The Main Path to C, N, O Elements in Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su-Qing, Hou; Kai-Su, Wu; Yong-Shou, Chen; Neng-Chuan, Shu; Zhi-Hong, Li

    2010-01-01

    The production of C, N, O elements in a standard big bang nucleosynthesis scenario is investigated. Using the up-to-date data of nuclear reactions in BBN, in particular the 8 Li (n,γ) 9 Li which has been measured in China Institute of Atomic Energy, a full nucleosynthesis network calculation of BBN is carried out. Our calculation results show that the abundance of 12 C is increased for an order of magnitude after addition of the reaction chain 8 Li(n,γ) 9 Li(α,n) 12 B(β) 12 C, which was neglected in previous studies. We find that this sequence provides the main channel to convert the light elements into C, N, O in standard BBN. (nuclear physics)

  13. Updated BBN bounds on the cosmological lepton asymmetry for non-zero θ13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangano, Gianpiero; Miele, Gennaro; Pastor, Sergio; Pisanti, Ofelia; Sarikas, Srdjan

    2012-01-01

    We discuss the bounds on the cosmological lepton number from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), in light of recent evidences for a large value of the neutrino mixing angle θ 13 , sin 2 θ 13 ≥0.01 at 2σ. The largest asymmetries for electron and μ, τ neutrinos compatible with 4 He and 2 H primordial yields are computed versus the neutrino mass hierarchy and mixing angles. The flavour oscillation dynamics is traced till the beginning of BBN and neutrino distributions after decoupling are numerically computed. The latter contains in general, non-thermal distortion due to the onset of flavour oscillations driven by solar squared mass difference in the temperature range where neutrino scatterings become inefficient to enforce thermodynamical equilibrium. Depending on the value of θ 13 , this translates into a larger value for the effective number of neutrinos, N eff . Upper bounds on this parameter are discussed for both neutrino mass hierarchies. Values for N eff which are large enough to be detectable by the Planck experiment are found only for the (presently disfavoured) range sin 2 θ 13 ≤0.01.

  14. Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yimingniyazi, W.

    2007-08-06

    In this thesis we study the relic density n{sub {chi}} of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles {chi} in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles {chi} to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where {chi} particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T{sub 0} of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the {chi} number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T{sub 0}, assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T{sub 0} {>=}m{sub {chi}}/23, where m{sub {chi}} is the mass of {chi}. Second, we discuss the {chi} density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the {chi} annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T {proportional_to}m{sub {chi}}/20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

  15. Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yimingniyazi, W.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis we study the relic density n χ of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles χ in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles χ to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where χ particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T 0 of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the χ number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T 0 , assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T 0 ≥m χ /23, where m χ is the mass of χ. Second, we discuss the χ density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the χ annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T ∝m χ /20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

  16. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Das, Paritosh [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    2017-10-03

    The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.

  17. What's Next for Big Bang Nucleosynthesis?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyburt, R.H.

    2005-01-01

    Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) plays an important role in the standard hot big bang cosmology. BBN theory is used to predict the primordial abundances of the lightest elements, hydrogen, helium and lithium. Comparison between the predicted and observationally determined light element abundances provides a general test of concordance and can be used to fix the baryon content in the universe. Measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies now supplant BBN as the premier baryometer, especially with the latest results from the WMAP satellite. With the WMAP baryon density, the test of concordance can be made even more precise. Any disagreement between theory predictions and observations requires careful discussion. Several possibilities exist to explain discrepancies; (1) observational systematics (either physical or technical) may not be properly treated in determining primordial light element abundances (2) nuclear inputs that determine the BBN predictions may have unknown systematics or may be incomplete, and (3) physics beyond that included in the standard BBN scenario may need to be included in the theory calculation. Before we can be absolutely sure new physics is warranted, points (1) and (2) must be addressed and ruled out. All of these scenarios rely on experimental or observational data to make definitive statements of their applicability and range of validity, which currently is not at the level necessary to discern between these possibilities with high confidence. Thus, new light element abundance observations and nuclear experiments are needed to probe these further. Assuming concordance is established, one can use the light element observations to explore the evolution from their primordial values. This can provide useful information on stellar evolution, cosmic rays and other nuclear astrophysics. When combined with detailed models, BBN, the CMB anisotropy and nuclear astrophysics can provide us with information about the populations

  18. Chemoprevention with green propolis green propolis extracted in L-lysine versus carcinogenesis promotion with L-lysine in N-Butyl-N-[4-hydroxybutyl] nitrosamine (BBN induced rat bladder cancer Quimioprevenção com própolis verde extraído em L-Lisina versus promoção da carcinogênese como L-Lisina em ratos induzidos ao câncer de bexiga pelo N-Butyl-N-[4-hydroxybutyl] nitrosamine (BBN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conceição Aparecida Dornelas

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To determine the effects of green propolis extracted in L-lysine (WSDP and of L- lysine for 40 weeks on induced rat bladder carcinogenesis. METHODS: The animals (groups I, II, III, IV, V and VI received BBN during 14 weeks. Group I was treated with propolis 30 days prior received BBN, and then these animals were treated daily with propolis; Groups II and III was treated with subcutaneous and oral propolis (respectively concurrently with BBN. The animals of Group IV were treated L-lysine; Group V received water subcutaneous; and Group VI received only to BBN. Among the animals not submitted to carcinogenesis induction, Group VII received propolis, Group VIII received L-lysine and Group IX received water. RESULTS: The carcinoma incidence in Group I was lower than that of control (Group VI. The carcinoma multiplicity in Group IV was greater than in Group VI. All animals treated with L-lysine developed carcinomas, and they were also more invasive in Group IV than in controls. On the other hand, Group VIII showed no bladder lesions. CONCLUSION: The WSDP is chemopreventive against rat bladder carcinogenesis, if administered 30 days prior to BBN , and that L-lysine causes promotion of bladder carcinogenesis.OBJETIVO: Determinar os efeitos da própolis verde extraída em L - Lisina (WSDP e da L-Lisina por 40 semanas em ratos induzidos a carcinogênese de bexiga. MÉTODOS: Os animais (grupos I, II, III, IV, V e VI receberam BBN por 14 semanas. O grupo I foi tratado com própolis 30 dias antes de receber BBN e em seguida estes animais foram tratados diariamente com própolis; Os grupos II e III foram tratados com própolis subcutânea e oral (respectivamente e concorretemente com BBN. Os animais do grupo IV foram tratados com L- Lisina; o grupo V recebeu água subcutânea; o grupo VI recebeu apenas BBN. Entre os animais não submetidos a indução de carcinogênese, Grupo VII, receberam própolis, Grupo VIII, receberam L-Lisina e Grupo IX

  19. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  20. Study of the 2H(p,γ)3He reaction in the BBN energy range at LUNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trezzi, Davide; LUNA Collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Using Big Bang Nucleosynthesis with the recent cosmological parameters obtained by the Planck collaboration, a primordial deuterium abundance value D/H = (2.65 ± 0.07) × 10-5 is obtained. This one is a little bit in tension with astronomical observations on metal- poor damped Lyman alpha systems where D/H = (2.53 ± 0.04) × 105. In order to reduce the BBN calculation uncertainty, a measurement of the 2H(p,γ)3He cross section in the energy range 10-300 keV with a 3% accuracy is thus desirable. Thanks to the low background of the underground Gran Sasso Laboratories, and to the experience accumulated in more than twenty years of scientific activity, LUNA (Laboratory for Underground Nuclear Astrophysics) planned to measure the 2H(p,γ)3He fusion cross section at the BBN energy range in 2015-2016. A feasibility test of the measurement has been recently performed at LUNA. In this paper, the results obtained will be shown. Possible cosmological outcomes from the future LUNA data will be also discussed.

  1. Optimization, biological evaluation and microPET imaging of copper-64-labeled bombesin agonists, [64Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH2], in a prostate tumor xenografted mouse model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, Stephanie R.; Nanda, Prasanta; Rold, Tammy L.; Sieckman, Gary L.; Figueroa, Said D.; Hoffman, Timothy J.; Jurisson, Silvia S.; Smith, Charles J.

    2010-01-01

    Gastrin-releasing peptide receptors (GRPr) are a member of the bombesin (BBN) receptor family. GRPr are expressed in high numbers on specific human cancers, including human prostate cancer. Therefore, copper-64 ( 64 Cu) radiolabeled BBN(7-14)NH 2 conjugates could have potential for diagnosis of human prostate cancer via positron-emission tomography (PET). The aim of this study was to produce [ 64 Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugates for prostate cancer imaging, where X=pharmacokinetic modifier (beta-alanine, 5-aminovaleric acid, 6-aminohexanoic acid, 8-aminooctanoic acid, 9-aminonanoic acid or para-aminobenzoic acid) and NO2A=1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4-diacetic acid [a derivative of NOTA (1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4,7-triacetic acid)]. Methods: [(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] Conjugates were synthesized by solid-phase peptide synthesis (SPPS), after which NOTA was added via manual conjugation. The new peptide conjugates were radiolabeled with 64 Cu radionuclide. The receptor-binding affinity was determined in human prostate PC-3 cells, and tumor-targeting efficacy was determined in PC-3 tumor-bearing severely combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice. Whole-body maximum intensity microPET/CT images of PC-3 tumor-bearing SCID mice were obtained 18 h postinjection (pi). Results: Competitive binding assays in PC-3 cells indicated high receptor-binding affinity for the [NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] and [ nat Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugates. In vivo biodistribution studies of the [ 64 Cu-NO2A-(X)-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugates at 1, 4 and 24 h pi showed very high uptake of the tracer in GRPr-positive tissue with little accumulation and retention in nontarget tissues. High-quality, high-contrast microPET images were obtained, with xenografted tumors being clearly visible at 18 h pi. Conclusions: NO2A chelator sufficiently stabilizes copper(II) radiometal under in vivo conditions, producing conjugates with very high uptake and retention in targeted GRPr. Preclinical evaluation of these

  2. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Das, Paritosh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios” of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their third year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.

  3. Low-energy cross sections of the BBN reaction d({alpha},{gamma}){sup 6}Li by Coulomb dissociation of {sup 6}Li

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heil, Michael; Suemmerer, Klaus [GSI Darmstadt (Germany); Hammache, Fairouz [IPN Orsay (France); Galaviz, Daniel [TU Darmstadt (Germany); Typel, Stefan [GANIL Caen (France)

    2008-07-01

    The primordial abundances of D, ({sup 3}He), {sup 4}He, and {sup 7}Li can be used to infer the baryon density of the Universe based on the framework of Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN). By precision measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) an independent method became available recently. This lead to a renewed interest for BBN. Together with the recent observation of {sup 6}Li in old stars and the problems to reconcile calculated primordial {sup 7}Li abundances with those predicted on the basis of CMB results, the production of both, {sup 6}Li and {sup 7}Li in BBN has been reinvestigated. One important ingredient is the low-energy S-factor of the d-alpha radiative-capture reaction. Up to now, the only available experimental result by Kiener et al. (1991) introduced an uncertainty of about a factor of 20 in the {sup 6}Li yield. We have therefore reinvestigated the d-alpha reaction with the help of Coulomb dissociation (CD) of {sup 6}Li at 150 MeV/nucleon at GSI. CD is the only practical way to study the low-energy S-factor (which involves l=2 multipolarity) due to the large number of E2 photons contained in the equivalent-photon flux. Preliminary results indicate a drop of the S-factor as predicted by theory, contrary to the constant low-energy S-factor resulting from the previous study.

  4. Effect of exotic long-lived sub-strongly interacting massive particles in big bang nucleosynthesis and a new solution to the Li problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kawasaki Masahiro

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The plateau of 7Li abundance as a function of the iron abundance by spectroscopic observations of metal-poor halo stars (MPHSs indicates its primordial origin. The observed abundance levels are about a factor of three smaller than the primordial 7Li abundance predicted in the standard Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN model. This discrepancy might originate from exotic particle and nuclear processes operating in BBN epoch. Some particle models include heavy (m >> 1 GeV long-lived colored particles which would be confined inside exotic heavy hadrons, i.e., strongly interacting massive particles (SIMPs. We have found reactions which destroy 7Be and 7Li during BBN in the scenario of BBN catalyzed by a long-lived sub-strongly interacting massive particle (sub-SIMP, X. The reactions are non radiative X captures of 7 Be and 7Li which can be operative if the X particle interacts with nuclei strongly enough to drive 7 Be destruction but not strongly enough to form a bound state with 4 He of relative angular momentum L = 1. We suggest that 7Li problem can be solved as a result of a new process beyond the standard model through which the observable signature was left on the primordial Li abundance.

  5. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

  6. A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model's shock structure and steady...

  7. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  8. LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

    2016-01-01

    We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

  9. Breaking bad news in clinical setting - health professionals' experience and perceived competence in Southwestern Nigeria: a cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Philip Babatunde; Abayomi, Olukayode; Johnson, Peter O; Oloyede, Taofeeq; Oyelekan, Abimbola A A

    2013-01-01

    Communication skills are vital in clinical settings because the manner in which bad news is delivered could be a huge determinant of responses to such news; as well as compliance with beneficial treatment option. Information on training, institutional guidelines and protocols for breaking bad news (BBN) is scarce in Nigeria. We assessed the training, experience and perceived competence of BBN among medical personnel in southwestern Nigeria. The study was a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted out among doctors and nurses in two healthcare institutions in southwestern Nigeria using an anonymous questionnaire (adapted from the survey by Horwitz et al.), which focused on the respondents training, awareness of protocols in BBN; and perceived competence (using a Five-Point Likert Scale) in five clinical scenarios. We equally asked the respondents about an instance of BBN they have recently witnessed. A total of 113 of 130 selected (response rate 86.9%) respondents were studied. Eight (7.1%) of the respondents knew of the guidelines on BBN in the hospital in which they work. Twenty-three (20.3%) respondents claimed knowledge of a protocol. The median perceived competence rating was 4 out of 5 in all the clinical scenarios. Twenty-five (22.1%) respondents have had a formal training in BBN and they generally had significant higher perceived competence rating (P = 0.003-0.021). There is poor support from fellow workers during instances of BBN. It appears that the large proportion of the respondents in this study were unconsciously incompetent in BBN in view of the low level of training and little or no knowledge of well known protocols for BBN even though self-rated competence is high. Continuous medical education in communication skills among health personnel in Nigeria is advocated.

  10. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

  11. Synthesis and biological evaluation of copper-64 radiolabeled [DUPA-6-Ahx-(NODAGA)-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH2], a novel bivalent targeting vector having affinity for two distinct biomarkers (GRPr/PSMA) of prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandari, Rajendra Prasad; Jiang, Zongrun; Reynolds, Tamila Stott; Bernskoetter, Nicole E.; Szczodroski, Ashley F.; Bassuner, Kurt J.; Kirkpatrick, Daniel L.; Rold, Tammy L.; Sieckman, Gary L.; Hoffman, Timothy J.; Connors, James P.; Smith, Charles J.

    2014-01-01

    Gastrin-releasing peptide receptors (GRPr) and prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) are two identifying biomarkers expressed in very high numbers on prostate cancer cells and could serve as a useful tool for molecular targeting and diagnosis of disease via positron-emission tomography (PET). The aim of this study was to produce the multipurpose, bivalent [DUPA-6-Ahx-( 64 Cu-NODAGA)-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] radioligand for prostate cancer imaging, where DUPA = (2-[3-(1,3-dicarboxypropyl)-ureido]pentanedioic acid), a small-molecule, PSMA-targeting probe, 6Ahx = 6-aminohexanoic acid, 5-Ava = 5-aminovaleric acid, NODAGA = [2-(4,7-biscarboxymethyl)-1,4,7-(triazonan-1-yl)pentanedioic acid] (a derivative of NOTA (1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4,7-triacetic acid)), and BBN(7-14)NH 2 = bombesin, a GRPr-specific peptide targeting probe. Methods: The PSMA/GRPr dual targeting ligand precursor [DUPA-6-Ahx-K-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ], was synthesized by solid-phase and manual peptide synthesis, after which NODAGA was added via manual conjugation to the ε-amine of lysine (K). The new bivalent GRPr/PSMA targeting vector was purified by reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC), characterized by electrospray-ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS), and metallated with 64 CuCl 2 and nat CuCl 2 . The receptor binding affinity was evaluated in human, prostate, PC-3 (GRPr-positive) and LNCaP (PSMA-positive) cells and the tumor-targeting efficacy determined in severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) and athymic nude mice bearing PC-3 and LNCaP tumors. Whole-body maximum intensity microPET/CT images of PC-3/LNCaP tumor-bearing mice were obtained 18 h post-injection (p.i.). Results: Competitive binding assays in PC-3 and LNCaP cells indicated high receptor binding affinity for the [DUPA-6-Ahx-( nat Cu-NODAGA)-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH 2 ] conjugate. MicroPET scintigraphy in PC-3/LNCaP tumor-bearing mice indicated that xenografted tumors were visible at 18 h p.i. with collateral

  12. Synthesis and biological evaluation of copper-64 radiolabeled [DUPA-6-Ahx-(NODAGA)-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH2], a novel bivalent targeting vector having affinity for two distinct biomarkers (GRPr/PSMA) of prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandari, Rajendra Prasad; Jiang, Zongrun; Reynolds, Tamila Stott; Bernskoetter, Nicole E; Szczodroski, Ashley F; Bassuner, Kurt J; Kirkpatrick, Daniel L; Rold, Tammy L; Sieckman, Gary L; Hoffman, Timothy J; Connors, James P; Smith, Charles J

    2014-04-01

    Gastrin-releasing peptide receptors (GRPr) and prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) are two identifying biomarkers expressed in very high numbers on prostate cancer cells and could serve as a useful tool for molecular targeting and diagnosis of disease via positron-emission tomography (PET). The aim of this study was to produce the multipurpose, bivalent [DUPA-6-Ahx-((64)Cu-NODAGA)-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH2] radioligand for prostate cancer imaging, where DUPA = (2-[3-(1,3-dicarboxypropyl)-ureido]pentanedioic acid), a small-molecule, PSMA-targeting probe, 6Ahx = 6-aminohexanoic acid, 5-Ava = 5-aminovaleric acid, NODAGA = [2-(4,7-biscarboxymethyl)-1,4,7-(triazonan-1-yl)pentanedioic acid] (a derivative of NOTA (1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4,7-triacetic acid)), and BBN(7-14)NH2 = bombesin, a GRPr-specific peptide targeting probe. The PSMA/GRPr dual targeting ligand precursor [DUPA-6-Ahx-K-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH2], was synthesized by solid-phase and manual peptide synthesis, after which NODAGA was added via manual conjugation to the ε-amine of lysine (K). The new bivalent GRPr/PSMA targeting vector was purified by reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC), characterized by electrospray-ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS), and metallated with (64)CuCl2 and (nat)CuCl2. The receptor binding affinity was evaluated in human, prostate, PC-3 (GRPr-positive) and LNCaP (PSMA-positive) cells and the tumor-targeting efficacy determined in severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) and athymic nude mice bearing PC-3 and LNCaP tumors. Whole-body maximum intensity microPET/CT images of PC-3/LNCaP tumor-bearing mice were obtained 18 h post-injection (p.i.). Competitive binding assays in PC-3 and LNCaP cells indicated high receptor binding affinity for the [DUPA-6-Ahx-((nat)Cu-NODAGA)-5-Ava-BBN(7-14)NH2] conjugate. MicroPET scintigraphy in PC-3/LNCaP tumor-bearing mice indicated that xenografted tumors were visible at 18h p.i. with collateral, background radiation also

  13. BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

  14. A see-saw scenario of an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Dinh, Dinh Nguyen; Văn, Phi Quang; Vân, Nguyen Thi Hông

    2016-01-01

    A see-saw scenario for an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model is presented. As before, the see-saw mechanism can be realized in several models of different types depending on different ways of neutrino mass generation corresponding to the introduction of new fields with different symmetry structures. In the present paper, a general desription of all these see-saw types is made with a more detailed investigation on type-I models. As within the original see-saw mechanism, the symmetry structure of the standard model fields decides the number and the symmetry structure of the new fields. In a model considered here, the scalar sector consists of three standard-model-Higgs-like iso-doublets ($SU_L(2)$-doublets) forming an $A_4$ triplet. The latter is a superposition of three mass-eigen states, one of which could be identified with the recently discovered Higgs boson. A possible relation to the still-deliberated 750 GeV diphoton resonance at the 13 TeV LHC collisions is also discussed. In the lepton sector, the ...

  15. Nucleosynthesis Constraints on a Massive Gravitino in Neutralino Dark Matter Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Cyburt, Richard H; Fields, Brian D; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A; Spanos, Vassilis C

    2009-01-01

    The decays of massive gravitinos into neutralino dark matter particles and Standard Model secondaries during or after Big-Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) may alter the primordial light-element abundances. We present here details of a new suite of codes for evaluating such effects, including a new treatment based on PYTHIA of the evolution of showers induced by hadronic decays of massive, unstable particles such as a gravitino. We also develop an analytical treatment of non-thermal hadron propagation in the early universe, and use this to derive analytical estimates for light-element production and in turn on decaying particle lifetimes and abundances. We then consider specifically the case of an unstable massive gravitino within the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM). We present upper limits on its possible primordial abundance before decay for different possible gravitino masses, with CMSSM parameters along strips where the lightest neutralino provides all the astrophysical...

  16. Security analysis of standards-driven communication protocols for healthcare scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Massimiliano; Pugliese, Rosario; Tiezzi, Francesco

    2012-12-01

    The importance of the Electronic Health Record (EHR), that stores all healthcare-related data belonging to a patient, has been recognised in recent years by governments, institutions and industry. Initiatives like the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise (IHE) have been developed for the definition of standard methodologies for secure and interoperable EHR exchanges among clinics and hospitals. Using the requisites specified by these initiatives, many large scale projects have been set up for enabling healthcare professionals to handle patients' EHRs. The success of applications developed in these contexts crucially depends on ensuring such security properties as confidentiality, authentication, and authorization. In this paper, we first propose a communication protocol, based on the IHE specifications, for authenticating healthcare professionals and assuring patients' safety. By means of a formal analysis carried out by using the specification language COWS and the model checker CMC, we reveal a security flaw in the protocol thus demonstrating that to simply adopt the international standards does not guarantee the absence of such type of flaws. We then propose how to emend the IHE specifications and modify the protocol accordingly. Finally, we show how to tailor our protocol for application to more critical scenarios with no assumptions on the communication channels. To demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of our protocols we have fully implemented them.

  17. Recent cosmic microwave background observations and the ionization history of the universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannestad, Steen; Scherrer, Robert J.

    2001-01-01

    Interest in nonstandard recombination scenarios has been spurred by recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) results from BOOMERANG and MAXIMA, which show an unexpectedly low second acoustic peak, resulting in a best-fit baryon density that is 50% larger than the prediction of big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). This apparent discrepancy can be avoided if the universe has a nonstandard ionization history in which the recombination of hydrogen is significantly delayed relative to the standard model. While future CMB observations may eliminate this discrepancy, it is useful to develop a general framework for analyzing nonstandard ionization histories. We develop such a framework, examining nonstandard models in which the hydrogen binding energy E b and the overall expression for the time rate of change of the ionized fraction of electrons are multiplied by arbitrary factors. This set of models includes a number of previously proposed models as special cases. We find a wide range of models with delayed recombination that are able to fit the CMB data with a baryon density in accordance with BBN, but there are even allowed models with earlier recombination than in the standard model. A generic prediction of these models is that the third acoustic CMB peak should be very low relative to what is found in the standard model. This is the case even for the models with earlier recombination than in the standard model, because here the third peak is lowered by an increased diffusion damping at recombination relative to the standard model. Interestingly, the specific height of the third peak depends sensitively on the model parameters, so that future CMB measurements will be able to distinguish between different nonstandard recombination scenarios

  18. Gravitational wave signals and cosmological consequences of gravitational reheating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artymowski, Michał; Czerwińska, Olga; Lalak, Zygmunt; Lewicki, Marek

    2018-04-01

    Reheating after inflation can proceed even if the inflaton couples to Standard Model (SM) particles only gravitationally. However, particle production during the transition between de-Sitter expansion and a decelerating Universe is rather inefficient and the necessity to recover the visible Universe leads to a non-standard cosmological evolution initially dominated by remnants of the inflaton field. We remain agnostic to the specific dynamics of the inflaton field and discuss a generic scenario in which its remnants behave as a perfect fluid with a general barotropic parameter w. Using CMB and BBN constraints we derive the allowed range of inflationary scales. We also show that this scenario results in a characteristic primordial Gravitational Wave (GW) spectrum which gives hope for observation in upcoming runs of LIGO as well as in other planned experiments.

  19. Estimating dependability of programmable systems using bayesian belief nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Dahll, Gustav

    2000-05-01

    The research programme at the Halden Project on software safety assessment is augmented through a joint project with Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace AS and Det Norske Veritas. The objective of this project is to investigate the possibility to combine the Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) methodology with a software safety standard. The report discusses software safety standards in general, with respect to how they can be used to measure software safety. The possibility to transfer the requirements of a software safety standard into a BBN is also investigated. The aim is to utilise the BBN methodology and associated tools, by transferring the software safety measurement into a probabilistic quantity. In this way software can be included in a total probabilistic safety analysis. This project was performed by applying the method for an evaluation of a real, safety related programmable system which was developed according to the avionic standard DO-178B. The test case, the standard, and the BBN methodology are shortly described. This is followed by a description of the construction of the BBN used in this project. This includes the topology of the BBN, the elicitation of probabilities and the making of observations. Based on this a variety of computations are made using the SERENE methodology and the HUGIN tool. Observations and conclusions are made on the basis of the findings from this process. This report should be considered as a progress report in a more long-term activity on the use of BBNs as support for safety assessment of programmable systems. (Author). 23 refs., 9 figs., tabs

  20. Revisiting cosmological bounds on sterile neutrinos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vincent, Aaron C. [Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology (IPPP), Department of Physics, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Martínez, Enrique Fernández [Departamento and Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT), UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, C/ Nicolás Cabrera 13-15, E-28049 Cantoblanco, Madrid (Spain); Hernández, Pilar; Mena, Olga [Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), CSIC-Universitat de València, Apartado de Correos 22085, E-46071 Valencia (Spain); Lattanzi, Massimiliano, E-mail: aaron.vincent@durham.ac.uk, E-mail: enrique.fernandez-martinez@uam.es, E-mail: m.pilar.hernandez@uv.es, E-mail: omena@ific.uv.es, E-mail: lattanzi@fe.infn.it [Dipartimento di Fisica e Science della Terra, Università di Ferrara and INFN, sezione di Ferrara, Polo Scientifico e Tecnologico, Edificio C Via Saragat, 1, I-44122 Ferrara (Italy)

    2015-04-01

    We employ state-of-the art cosmological observables including supernova surveys and BAO information to provide constraints on the mass and mixing angle of a non-resonantly produced sterile neutrino species, showing that cosmology can effectively rule out sterile neutrinos which decay between BBN and the present day. The decoupling of an additional heavy neutrino species can modify the time dependence of the Universe's expansion between BBN and recombination and, in extreme cases, lead to an additional matter-dominated period; while this could naively lead to a younger Universe with a larger Hubble parameter, it could later be compensated by the extra radiation expected in the form of neutrinos from sterile decay. However, recombination-era observables including the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), the shift parameter R{sub CMB} and the sound horizon r{sub s} from Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) severely constrain this scenario. We self-consistently include the full time-evolution of the coupled sterile neutrino and standard model sectors in an MCMC, showing that if decay occurs after BBN, the sterile neutrino is essentially bounded by the constraint sin{sup 2}θ ∼< 0.026 (m{sub s}/eV){sup −2}.

  1. The long-lived stau as a thermal relic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pradler, Josef

    2009-07-20

    We consider physics beyond the Standard Model which implies the existence a of long-lived electromagnetically charged massive particle species (CHAMP) which we denote by X{sup {+-}}. We discuss in detail the unique sensitivity the early Universe exhibits on the mere presence and on the decay of such a particle. We carry out a detailed study of gravitino (G) dark matter scenarios in which the lighter scalar tau (stau, {tau}{sub 1}) is the lightest Standard Model superpartner so that {tau}{sub 1}=X. We also provide a thorough investigation of the thermal freeze-out process of {tau}{sub 1}. The thesis is divided into three parts: Part I: In this part we consider a generic but weak-scale CHAMP. In Chapter 1 we set the stage for the coming investigations by shortly reviewing the framework of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), by working out the typical CHAMP freeze-out abundance, and by reviewing the stringent constraints arising from such a decaying component during/after BBN. In Chapter 2 we discuss the physics which emerges when the light elements fused in BBN are captured by X{sup -} at the time of primordial nucleosynthesis. In the remainder of this chapter we focus on the catalytic production of {sup 6}Li and {sup 9}Be. The second part is devoted to scenarios in which G is the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) and {tau}{sub 1} is the next-to-lightest SUSY particle (NLSP). In Chapter 3 we focus on the gravitino LSP as a dark matter candidate. In Chapter 4 we then focus on gravitino dark matter scenarios in which {tau}{sub 1} is the NLSP. In Part III we take an in-depth look into the chemical decoupling process of the long-lived {tau}{sub 1} from the primordial plasma. The quantity of interest is the thermal freeze-out abundance of the stau. We identify its dependence on the crucial SUSY parameters and also show that it sensitively depends on the details of the Higgs sector. Stau annihilation into final state Higgses as well as resonant annihilation via the heavy

  2. Decision scenario analysis for addressing sediment accumulation in Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was used to characterize the effects of sediment accumulation on water storage capacity of a reservoir (Lago Lucchetti) in southwest Puerto Rico and the potential of different management options to increase reservoir life expectancy. Water and sedi...

  3. Probing the BSM physics with CMB precision cosmology: an application to supersymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalianis, Ioannis; Watanabe, Yuki

    2018-02-01

    The cosmic history before the BBN is highly determined by the physics that operates beyond the Standard Model (BSM) of particle physics and it is poorly constrained observationally. Ongoing and future precision measurements of the CMB observables can provide us with significant information about the pre-BBN era and hence possibly test the cosmological predictions of different BSM scenarios. Supersymmetry is a particularly motivated BSM theory and it is often the case that different superymmetry breaking schemes require different cosmic histories with specific reheating temperatures or low entropy production in order to be cosmologically viable. In this paper we quantify the effects of the possible alternative cosmic histories on the n s and r CMB observables assuming a generic non-thermal stage after cosmic inflation. We analyze TeV and especially multi-TeV super-symmetry breaking schemes assuming the neutralino and gravitino dark matter scenarios. We complement our analysis considering the Starobinsky R 2 inflation model to exemplify the improved CMB predictions that a unified description of the early universe cosmic evolution yields. Our analysis underlines the importance of the CMB precision measurements that can be viewed, to some extend, as complementary to the laboratory experimental searches for supersymmetry or other BSM theories.

  4. Challenges to the standard model of Big Bang nucleosynthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steigman, G.

    1993-01-01

    Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides a unique probe of the early evolution of the Universe and a crucial test of the consistency of the standard hot Big Bang cosmological model. Although the primordial abundances of 2 H, 3 He, 4 He, and 7 Li inferred from current observational data are in agreement with those predicted by Big Bang nucleosynthesis, recent analysis has severely restricted the consistent range for the nucleon-to-photon ratio: 3.7 ≤ η 10 ≤ 4.0. Increased accuracy in the estimate of primordial 4 he and observations of Be and B in Pop II stars are offering new challenges to the standard model and suggest that no new light particles may be allowed (N ν BBN ≤ 3.0, where N ν is the number of equivalent light neutrinos). 23 refs

  5. Light dark Higgs boson in minimal sub-GeV dark matter scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmé, Luc; Rao, Soumya; Roszkowski, Leszek

    2018-03-01

    Minimal scenarios with light (sub-GeV) dark matter whose relic density is obtained from thermal freeze-out must include new light mediators. In particular, a very well-motivated case is that of a new "dark" massive vector gauge boson mediator. The mass term for such mediator is most naturally obtained by a "dark Higgs mechanism" which leads to the presence of an often long-lived dark Higgs boson whose mass scale is the same as that of the mediator. We study the phenomenology and experimental constraints on two minimal, self-consistent dark sectors that include such a light dark Higgs boson. In one the dark matter is a pseudo-Dirac fermion, in the other a complex scalar. We find that the constraints from BBN and CMB are considerably relaxed in the framework of such minimal dark sectors. We present detection prospects for the dark Higgs boson in existing and projected proton beam-dump experiments. We show that future searches at experiments like Xenon1T or LDMX can probe all the relevant parameter space, complementing the various upcoming indirect constraints from astrophysical observations.

  6. Comparative Study on Cyber Securities between Power Reactor and Research Reactor with Bayesian Update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung; Son, Han Seong

    2016-01-01

    The Stuxnet has shown that nuclear facilities are no more safe from cyber-attack. Due to practical experiences and concerns on increasing of digital system application, cyber security has become the important issue in nuclear industry. Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and control (KINAC) published a regulatory standard (KINAC/RS-015) to establish cyber security framework for nuclear facilities. However, it is difficult to research about cyber security. It is hard to quantify cyber-attack which has malicious activity which is different from existing design basis accidents (DBAs). We previously proposed a methodology on development of a cyber security risk model with BBN. However, the methodology had a limitation in which the input data as prior information was solely on expert opinions. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk model for instrumentation and control (I and C) system of nuclear facilities with some equation for quantification by using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in order to overcome the limitation of previous research. The proposed model has been used for comparative study on cyber securities between large-sized nuclear power plants (NPPs) and small-sized Research Reactors (RR). In this study, we proposed the cyber security risk evaluation model with BBN. It includes I and C architecture, which is a target system of cyber-attack, malicious activity, which causes cyber-attack from attacker, and mitigation measure, which mitigates the cyber-attack risk. Likelihood and consequence as prior information are evaluated by considering characteristics of I and C architecture and malicious activity. The BBN model provides posterior information with Bayesian update by adding any of assumed cyber-attack scenarios as evidence. Cyber security risk for nuclear facilities is analyzed by comparing between prior information and posterior information of each node. In this study, we conducted comparative study on cyber securities between power reactor

  7. Comparative Study on Cyber Securities between Power Reactor and Research Reactor with Bayesian Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univiersity, Geumsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The Stuxnet has shown that nuclear facilities are no more safe from cyber-attack. Due to practical experiences and concerns on increasing of digital system application, cyber security has become the important issue in nuclear industry. Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and control (KINAC) published a regulatory standard (KINAC/RS-015) to establish cyber security framework for nuclear facilities. However, it is difficult to research about cyber security. It is hard to quantify cyber-attack which has malicious activity which is different from existing design basis accidents (DBAs). We previously proposed a methodology on development of a cyber security risk model with BBN. However, the methodology had a limitation in which the input data as prior information was solely on expert opinions. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk model for instrumentation and control (I and C) system of nuclear facilities with some equation for quantification by using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in order to overcome the limitation of previous research. The proposed model has been used for comparative study on cyber securities between large-sized nuclear power plants (NPPs) and small-sized Research Reactors (RR). In this study, we proposed the cyber security risk evaluation model with BBN. It includes I and C architecture, which is a target system of cyber-attack, malicious activity, which causes cyber-attack from attacker, and mitigation measure, which mitigates the cyber-attack risk. Likelihood and consequence as prior information are evaluated by considering characteristics of I and C architecture and malicious activity. The BBN model provides posterior information with Bayesian update by adding any of assumed cyber-attack scenarios as evidence. Cyber security risk for nuclear facilities is analyzed by comparing between prior information and posterior information of each node. In this study, we conducted comparative study on cyber securities between power reactor

  8. Using Inertial Fusion Implosions to Measure the T+^{3}He Fusion Cross Section at Nucleosynthesis-Relevant Energies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zylstra, A B; Herrmann, H W; Johnson, M Gatu; Kim, Y H; Frenje, J A; Hale, G; Li, C K; Rubery, M; Paris, M; Bacher, A; Brune, C R; Forrest, C; Glebov, V Yu; Janezic, R; McNabb, D; Nikroo, A; Pino, J; Sangster, T C; Séguin, F H; Seka, W; Sio, H; Stoeckl, C; Petrasso, R D

    2016-07-15

    Light nuclei were created during big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). Standard BBN theory, using rates inferred from accelerator-beam data, cannot explain high levels of ^{6}Li in low-metallicity stars. Using high-energy-density plasmas we measure the T(^{3}He,γ)^{6}Li reaction rate, a candidate for anomalously high ^{6}Li production; we find that the rate is too low to explain the observations, and different than values used in common BBN models. This is the first data directly relevant to BBN, and also the first use of laboratory plasmas, at comparable conditions to astrophysical systems, to address a problem in nuclear astrophysics.

  9. Big-bang nucleosynthesis in the new cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, B.D.

    2005-01-01

    Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) describes the production of the lightest elements in the first minutes of cosmic time. I will review the physics of cosmological element production, and the observations of the primordial element abundances. The comparison between theory and observation has heretofore provided our earliest probe of the universe, and given the best measure of the cosmic baryon content. However, BBN has now taken a new role in cosmology, in light of new precision measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Recent CMB anisotropy data yield a wealth of cosmological parameters; in particular, the baryon-to-photon ratio η = n B /n γ is measured to high precision. The confrontation between the BBN and CMB 'baryometers' poses a new and stringent test of the standard cosmology; the status of this test will be discussed. Moreover, it is now possible to recast the role of BBN by using the CMB to fix the baryon density and even some light element abundances. This strategy sharpens BBN into a more powerful probe of early universe physics, and of galactic nucleosynthesis processes. The impact of the CMB results on particle physics beyond the Standard Model, and on non-standard cosmology, will be illustrated. Prospects for improvement of these bounds via additional astronomical observations and nuclear experiments will be discussed, as will the lingering 'lithium problem.' (author)

  10. A solution to lithium problem by long-lived stau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Joe; Shimomura, Takashi; Yamanaka, Masato

    We review a nonstandard Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) scenario within the minimal supersymmetric standard model, and propose an idea to solve both the 7Li and 6Li problems. Each problem is a discrepancy between the predicted abundance in the standard BBN and observed one. We focus on the stau, a supersymmetric partner of tau lepton, which is a long-lived charged particle when it is the next lightest supersymmetric particle and is degenerate in mass with the lightest supersymmetric particle. The long-lived stau forms a bound state with a nucleus, and provides nonstandard nuclear reactions. One of those, the internal conversion process, accelerates the destruction of 7Be and 7Li, and leads to a solution to the 7Li problem. On the other hand, the bound state of the stau and 4He enhances productions of n, D, T and 6Li. The over-production of 6Li could solve the 6Li problem; while the over-productions of D and T could conflict with observations, and hence the relevant parameter space of the stau is strictly constrained. We therefore need to carefully investigate the stau-4He bound state to find a condition of solving the 6Li problem. The scenario of the long-lived stau simultaneously and successfully fits the abundances of light elements (D, T, 3He, 4He, 6Li and 7Li) and the neutralino dark matter to the observed ones. Consequently, the parameter space both of the stau and the neutralino is determined with excellent accuracy.

  11. D-brane disformal coupling and thermal dark matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Bhaskar; Jimenez, Esteban; Zavala, Ivonne

    2017-11-01

    Conformal and disformal couplings between a scalar field and matter occur naturally in general scalar-tensor theories. In D-brane models of cosmology and particle physics, these couplings originate from the D-brane action describing the dynamics of its transverse (the scalar) and longitudinal (matter) fluctuations, which are thus coupled. During the post-inflationary regime and before the onset of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), these couplings can modify the expansion rate felt by matter, changing the predictions for the thermal relic abundance of dark matter particles and thus the annihilation rate required to satisfy the dark matter content today. We study the D-brane-like conformal and disformal couplings effect on the expansion rate of the Universe prior to BBN and its impact on the dark matter relic abundance and annihilation rate. For a purely disformal coupling, the expansion rate is always enhanced with respect to the standard one. This gives rise to larger cross sections when compared to the standard thermal prediction for a range of dark matter masses, which will be probed by future experiments. In a D-brane-like scenario, the scale at which the expansion rate enhancement occurs depends on the string coupling and the string scale.

  12. Observation of interstellar lithium in the low-metallicity Small Magellanic Cloud.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howk, J Christopher; Lehner, Nicolas; Fields, Brian D; Mathews, Grant J

    2012-09-06

    The primordial abundances of light elements produced in the standard theory of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) depend only on the cosmic ratio of baryons to photons, a quantity inferred from observations of the microwave background. The predicted primordial (7)Li abundance is four times that measured in the atmospheres of Galactic halo stars. This discrepancy could be caused by modification of surface lithium abundances during the stars' lifetimes or by physics beyond the Standard Model that affects early nucleosynthesis. The lithium abundance of low-metallicity gas provides an alternative constraint on the primordial abundance and cosmic evolution of lithium that is not susceptible to the in situ modifications that may affect stellar atmospheres. Here we report observations of interstellar (7)Li in the low-metallicity gas of the Small Magellanic Cloud, a nearby galaxy with a quarter the Sun's metallicity. The present-day (7)Li abundance of the Small Magellanic Cloud is nearly equal to the BBN predictions, severely constraining the amount of possible subsequent enrichment of the gas by stellar and cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis. Our measurements can be reconciled with standard BBN with an extremely fine-tuned depletion of stellar Li with metallicity. They are also consistent with non-standard BBN.

  13. Effect of nuclear reaction rates on primordial abundances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Abhishek; Basu, D.N.

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical predictions of the primordial abundances of elements in the big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) are dominated by uncertainties in the input nuclear reaction rates. The effect of modifying these reaction rates on light element abundance yields in BBN by replacing the thirty-five reaction rates out of the existing eighty-eight has been investigated. Also the study have been taken of these yields as functions of evolution time or temperature. Here it has been found that using these new reaction rates results in only a little increase in helium mass fraction over that obtained previously in BBN calculations. This allows insights into the role of the nuclear reaction rates in the setting of the neutron-to-proton ratio during the BBN epoch. We observe that most of these nuclear reactions have minimal effect on the standard BBN abundance yields of 6 Li and 7 Li

  14. Physicians' psychophysiological stress reaction in medical communication of bad news: A critical literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Regina Katharina; Danuser, Brigitta; Gomez, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    Stress is a common phenomenon in medical professions. Breaking bad news (BBN) is reported to be a particularly distressing activity for physicians. Traditionally, the stress experienced by physicians when BBN was assessed exclusively using self-reporting. Only recently, the field of difficult physician-patient communication has used physiological assessments to better understand physicians' stress reactions. This paper's goals are to (a) review current knowledge about the physicians' psychophysiological stress reactions in BBN situations, (b) discuss methodological aspects of these studies and (c) suggest directions for future research. The seven studies identified all used scenarios with simulated patients but were heterogeneous with regard to other methodological aspects, such as the psychophysiological parameters, time points and durations assessed, comparative settings, and operationalisation of the communication scenarios. Despite this heterogeneity, all the papers reported increases in psychological and/or physiological activation when breaking bad news in comparison to control conditions, such as history taking or breaking good news. Taken together, the studies reviewed support the hypothesis that BBN is a psychophysiologically arousing and stressful task for medical professionals. However, much remains to be done. We suggest several future directions to advance the field. These include (a) expanding and refining the conceptual framework, (b) extending assessments to include more diverse physiological parameters, (c) exploring the modulatory effects of physicians' personal characteristics (e.g. level of experience), (d) comparing simulated and real-life physician-patient encounters and (e) combining physiological assessment with a discourse analysis of physician-patient communication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  16. The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

  17. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  18. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  19. Addendum to 'Update on neutrino mixing in the early universe'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Bari, P.

    2003-01-01

    In the light of the recent WMAP results we update the constraints on a class of nonstandard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) models with a simultaneous combination of nonstandard neutrino distributions and an extra effective number of neutrinos in the expansion rate. These models can be described in terms of the two parameters ΔN ν tot , constrained by the primordial helium abundance Y p measurement, and ΔN ν ρ , constrained by a combination of cosmic microwave background and primordial deuterium data. Small deviations from standard big bang nucleosynthesis are suggested. Different nonstandard scenarios can be distinguished by a measurement of the difference ΔN ν f ν =ΔN ν tot -ΔN ν ρ . From the current data we estimate ΔN ν f ν ≅-1.4 -1.4 +0.9 , mildly disfavoring solutions with a low expansion rate, characterized by ΔN ν f ν =0 and negative ΔN ν ρ . Active-sterile neutrino mixing could be a viable explanation only for high values of Y p > or approx. 0.24. The existence of large positive neutrino chemical potentials ξ i ∼0.05, implying ΔN ν ρ ≅0, would be a possible explanation of the data within the analyzed class of nonstandard BBN models. Interestingly, it would also provide a way to evade the cosmological bounds for ''class A 3+1'' four neutrino mixing models. A scenario with a decaying sterile neutrino is also considered

  20. Comparative analyses of B{yields}K{sub 2}{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} in the standard model and new physics scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Run-Hui [Institute of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China); Yonsei Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Physics and IPAP; Lue, Cai-Dian [Institute of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Wei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2010-12-15

    We analyze the B {yields} K{sub 2}{sup *}({yields} K{pi})l{sup +}l{sup -} (with l=e,{mu},{tau}) decay in the standard model and two new physics scenarios: vector-like quark model and family non-universal Z{sup '} model. We derive the differential angular distributions of the quasi-four-body decay, using the recently calculated form factors in the perturbative QCD approach. Branching ratios, polarizations, forward-backward asymmetries and transversity amplitudes are predicted, from which we find a promising prospective to observe this channel on the future experiment. We also update the constraints on effective Wilson coefficients and/or free parameters in these two new physics scenarios by making use of the experimental data of B{yields}K{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} and b{yields}sl{sup +}l{sup -}. Their impact on B{yields}K{sub 2}{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} is subsequently explored and in particular the zero-crossing point for the forward-backward asymmetry in these new physics scenarios can sizably deviate from the SM scenario. In addition we also generalize the analysis to a similar mode B{sub s}{yields}f{sup '}{sub 2}(1525)({yields}K{sup +}K{sup -})l{sup +}l{sup -}. (orig.)

  1. First direct measurement of the 2H(α,γ)6Li cross section at big bang energies and the primordial lithium problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, M; Trezzi, D; Menegazzo, R; Aliotta, M; Bellini, A; Bemmerer, D; Broggini, C; Caciolli, A; Corvisiero, P; Costantini, H; Davinson, T; Elekes, Z; Erhard, M; Formicola, A; Fülöp, Zs; Gervino, G; Guglielmetti, A; Gustavino, C; Gyürky, Gy; Junker, M; Lemut, A; Marta, M; Mazzocchi, C; Prati, P; Rossi Alvarez, C; Scott, D A; Somorjai, E; Straniero, O; Szücs, T

    2014-07-25

    Recent observations of (6)Li in metal poor stars suggest a large production of this isotope during big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). In standard BBN calculations, the (2)H(α,γ)(6)Li reaction dominates (6)Li production. This reaction has never been measured inside the BBN energy region because its cross section drops exponentially at low energy and because the electric dipole transition is strongly suppressed for the isoscalar particles (2)H and α at energies below the Coulomb barrier. Indirect measurements using the Coulomb dissociation of (6)Li only give upper limits owing to the dominance of nuclear breakup processes. Here, we report on the results of the first measurement of the (2)H(α,γ)(6)Li cross section at big bang energies. The experiment was performed deep underground at the LUNA 400 kV accelerator in Gran Sasso, Italy. The primordial (6)Li/(7)Li isotopic abundance ratio has been determined to be (1.5 ± 0.3) × 10(-5), from our experimental data and standard BBN theory. The much higher (6)Li/(7)Li values reported for halo stars will likely require a nonstandard physics explanation, as discussed in the literature.

  2. Leptogenesis scenarios for natural SUSY with mixed axion-higgsino dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Kyu Jung; Baer, Howard; Serce, Hasan; Zhang, Yi-Fan

    2016-01-01

    Supersymmetric models with radiatively-driven electroweak naturalness require light higgsinos of mass ∼ 100–300 GeV . Naturalness in the QCD sector is invoked via the Peccei-Quinn (PQ) axion leading to mixed axion-higgsino dark matter. The SUSY DFSZ axion model provides a solution to the SUSY μ problem and the Little Hierarchy μ|| m 3/2 may emerge as a consequence of a mismatch between PQ and hidden sector mass scales. The traditional gravitino problem is now augmented by the axino and saxion problems, since these latter particles can also contribute to overproduction of WIMPs or dark radiation, or violation of BBN constraints. We compute regions of the T R vs. m 3/2 plane allowed by BBN, dark matter and dark radiation constraints for various PQ scale choices f a . These regions are compared to the values needed for thermal leptogenesis, non-thermal leptogenesis, oscillating sneutrino leptogenesis and Affleck-Dine leptogenesis. The latter three are allowed in wide regions of parameter space for PQ scale f a∼  10 10 –10 12 GeV which is also favored by naturalness: f a  ∼ √μM P /λ μ  ∼ 10 10 –10 12 GeV . These f a values correspond to axion masses somewhat above the projected ADMX search regions

  3. Thermalisation of light sterile neutrinos in the early universe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hannestad, Steen; Tamborra, Irene; Tram, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    on the current cosmological data have been derived using simplified assumptions about thermalisation of the sterile neutrino at the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) epoch. These assumptions are not necessarily justified and here we solve the full quantum kinetic equations in the (1 active + 1 sterile) scenario...

  4. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  5. Validation of EOPs/FRGs Procedures Using LOHS Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bajs, T.; Konjarek, D.; Vukovic, J.

    2012-01-01

    Validation of EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) and FRGs (Function Restoration Guidelines) can be achieved either through plant full scope simulator or on desk top exercises. The desk top exercise is conducted when for the given scenario plant full scope simulator is not suitable. In either verification cases predefined scenario should be evaluated and possible branching foreseen. The scenario presented is LOHS, with bleed and feed procedure initiated. Best estimate light water reactor transient analysis code RELAP5/mod3.3 was used in calculation. Standardized detailed plant model was used. Operator actions were modelled from beginning of the scenario to its termination.(author).

  6. A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

    2003-08-01

    This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

  7. Neutrinos and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Steigman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the standard models of particle physics and cosmology, there should be a background of cosmic neutrinos in the present Universe, similar to the cosmic microwave photon background. The weakness of the weak interactions renders this neutrino background undetectable with current technology. The cosmic neutrino background can, however, be probed indirectly through its cosmological effects on big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN and the cosmic microwave background (CMB radiation. In this BBN review, focused on neutrinos and more generally on dark radiation, the BBN constraints on the number of “equivalent neutrinos” (dark radiation, on the baryon asymmetry (baryon density, and on a possible lepton asymmetry (neutrino degeneracy are reviewed and updated. The BBN constraints on dark radiation and on the baryon density following from considerations of the primordial abundances of deuterium and helium-4 are in excellent agreement with the complementary results from the CMB, providing a suggestive, but currently inconclusive, hint of the presence of dark radiation, and they constrain any lepton asymmetry. For all the cases considered here there is a “lithium problem”: the BBN-predicted lithium abundance exceeds the observationally inferred primordial value by a factor of ~3.

  8. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  9. SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

    SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

  10. Comparing three CPR feedback devices and standard BLS in a single rescuer scenario: a randomised simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapletal, Bernhard; Greif, Robert; Stumpf, Dominik; Nierscher, Franz Josef; Frantal, Sophie; Haugk, Moritz; Ruetzler, Kurt; Schlimp, Christoph; Fischer, Henrik

    2014-04-01

    Efficiently performed basic life support (BLS) after cardiac arrest is proven to be effective. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is strenuous and rescuers' performance declines rapidly over time. Audio-visual feedback devices reporting CPR quality may prevent this decline. We aimed to investigate the effect of various CPR feedback devices on CPR quality. In this open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial we compared three CPR feedback devices (PocketCPR, CPRmeter, iPhone app PocketCPR) with standard BLS without feedback in a simulated scenario. 240 trained medical students performed single rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8min. Effective compression (compressions with correct depth, pressure point and sufficient decompression) as well as compression rate, flow time fraction and ventilation parameters were compared between the four groups. Study participants using the PocketCPR performed 17±19% effective compressions compared to 32±28% with CPRmeter, 25±27% with the iPhone app PocketCPR, and 35±30% applying standard BLS (PocketCPR vs. CPRmeter p=0.007, PocketCPR vs. standard BLS p=0.001, others: ns). PocketCPR and CPRmeter prevented a decline in effective compression over time, but overall performance in the PocketCPR group was considerably inferior to standard BLS. Compression depth and rate were within the range recommended in the guidelines in all groups. While we found differences between the investigated CPR feedback devices, overall BLS quality was suboptimal in all groups. Surprisingly, effective compression was not improved by any CPR feedback device compared to standard BLS. All feedback devices caused substantial delay in starting CPR, which may worsen outcome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Effectiveness of Integrating Simulation with Art-Based Teaching Strategies on Oncology Fellows' Performance Regarding Breaking Bad News.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakhforoshha, Afsaneh; Emami, Seyed Amir Hossein; Shahi, Farhad; Shahsavari, Saeed; Cheraghi, Mohammadali; Mojtahedzadeh, Rita; Mahmoodi-Bakhtiari, Behrooz; Shirazi, Mandana

    2018-02-21

    The task of breaking bad news (BBN) may be improved by incorporating simulation with art-based teaching methods. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of an integrating simulation with art-based teaching strategies, on fellows' performance regarding BBN, in Iran. The study was carried out using quasi-experimental methods, interrupted time series. The participants were selected from medical oncology fellows at two teaching hospitals of Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Iran. Participants were trained through workshop, followed by engaging participants with different types of art-based teaching methods. In order to assess the effectiveness of the integrating model, fellows' performance was rated by two independent raters (standardized patients (SPs) and faculty members) using the BBN assessment checklist. This assessment tool measured seven different domains of BBN skill. Segmented regression was used to analyze the results of study. Performance of all oncology fellows (n = 19) was assessed for 228 time points during the study, by rating three time points before and three time points after the intervention by two raters. Based on SP ratings, fellows' performance scores in post-training showed significant level changes in three domains of BBN checklist (B = 1.126, F = 3.221, G = 2.241; p art-based teaching strategies may help oncology fellows to improve their communication skills in different facets of BBN performance. Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials ID: IRCT2016011626039N1.

  12. Breaking Bad News in obstetrics: a randomized trial of simulation followed by debriefing or lecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karkowsky, Chavi Eve; Landsberger, Ellen J; Bernstein, Peter S; Dayal, Ashlesha; Goffman, Dena; Madden, Robert C; Chazotte, Cynthia

    2016-11-01

    Although communication skills represent an increasingly important aspect of medical care, little has been done to assess the best method of teaching these skills. Our study was designed to assess simulation-debriefing compared to lecture in teaching skills for Breaking Bad News (BBN) in obstetrics. This is a randomized prospective trial of house staff from a large academic medical center. Subjects initially underwent baseline simulation, followed by evaluation on BBN skills by themselves, a faculty observer, and the standardized patient (SP). The subjects were then immediately randomized to a debriefing session by faculty or to a lecture about BBN. Subsequently, both groups underwent a second simulation with the same three assessments, yielding post-intervention data. 35 subjects completed both simulations. Both debriefing and lecture curricula showed improvement in scores by self (p = 0.010) and faculty (p < 0.001). The debriefing group improved significantly more than the lecture group for self-evaluation; additionally, improvements were greater for the debrief group in verbal and nonverbal skills. Long-term follow-up three months after both interventions demonstrated continued improvement in BBN. Simulation training with debriefing is effective for teaching communication skills, and superior to lecture for self-perceived improvement. Long-term follow-up suggested retention of confidence in BBN skills.

  13. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  14. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  15. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  16. In Vitro and In Vivo Evaluation of Alexa Fluor 680-Bombesin[7–14]NH2 Peptide Conjugate, a High-Affinity Fluorescent Probe with High Selectivity for the Gastrin-Releasing Peptide Receptor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixin Ma

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Gastrin-releasing peptide (GRP receptors are overexpressed on several types of human cancer cells, including breast, prostate, small cell lung, and pancreatic cancers. Bombesin (BBN, a 14–amino acid peptide that is an analogue of human GRP, binds to GRP receptors with very high affinity and specificity. The aim of this study was to develop a new fluorescent probe based on BBN having high tumor uptake and optimal pharmacokinetics for specific targeting and optical imaging of human breast cancer tissue. In this study, solid-phase peptide synthesis was used to produce H2N-glycylglycylglycine-BBN[7–14]NH2 peptide with the following general sequence: H2N-G-G-G-Q-W-A-V-G-H-L-M-(NH2. This conjugate was purified by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography and characterized by electrospray-ionization mass spectra. The fluorescent probe Alexa Fluor 680-G-G-G-BBN[7–14]NH2 conjugate was prepared by reaction of Alexa Fluor 680 succinimidyl ester to H2N-G-G-G-BBN[7–14]NH2 in dimethylformamide (DMF. In vitro competitive binding assays, using 125I-Tyr4-BBN as the radiolabeling gold standard, demonstrated an inhibitory concentration 50% value of 7.7 ± 1.4 nM in human T-47D breast cancer cells. Confocal fluorescence microscopy images of Alexa Fluor 680-G-G-G-BBN[7–14]NH2 in human T-47D breast cancer cells indicated specific uptake, internalization, and receptor blocking of the fluorescent bioprobe in vitro. In vivo investigations in SCID mice bearing xenografted T-47D breast cancer lesions demonstrated the ability of this new conjugate to specifically target tumor tissue with high selectivity and affinity.

  17. Gravitino dark matter in the CMSSM and implications for leptogenesis and the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roszkowski, Leszek; Austri, Roberto Ruiz de; Choi, Ki-Young

    2005-01-01

    In the framework of the CMSSM we study the gravitino as the lightest supersymmetric particle and the dominant component of cold dark matter in the Universe. We include both a thermal contribution to its relic abundance from scatterings in the plasma and a non-thermal one from neutralino or stau decays after freeze-out. In general both contributions can be important, although in different regions of the parameter space. We further include constraints from BBN on electromagnetic and hadronic showers, from the CMB blackbody spectrum and from collider and non-collider SUSY searches. The region where the neutralino is the next-to-lightest superpartner is severely constrained by a conservative bound from excessive electromagnetic showers and probably basically excluded by the bound from hadronic showers, while the stau case remains mostly allowed. In both regions the constraint from CMB is often important or even dominant. In the stau case, for the assumed reasonable ranges of soft SUSY breaking parameters, we find regions where the gravitino abundance is in agreement with the range inferred from CMB studies, provided that, in many cases, a reheating temperature T R is large, T R ∼ 10 9 GeV. On the other side, we find an upper bound T R ∼ 9 GeV. Less conservative bounds from BBN or an improvement in measuring the CMB spectrum would provide a dramatic squeeze on the whole scenario, in particular it would strongly disfavor the largest values of T R ∼ 10 9 GeV. The regions favored by the gravitino dark matter scenario are very different from standard regions corresponding to the neutralino dark matter, and will be partly probed at the LHC

  18. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  19. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  20. Big bang nucleosynthesis - Predictions and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krauss, L.M.; Romanelli, P.

    1990-01-01

    A detailed reexamination is made of primordial big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), concentrating on the data for the main nuclear reactions leading to the production of Li-7, He-3 and D, and on the neutron half-life, relevant for He-4 production. The new values for reaction rates and uncertainties are then used as input in a Monte Carlo analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis of light elements. This allows confidence levels for the predictions of the standard BBN model to be high. 70 refs

  1. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

  2. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  3. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  4. Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

    2016-01-01

    Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which...... conclusions on factors predicting preventable readmissions were derived. There is no literature on the interobserver agreement of physician judgement. Aim: To assess the degree of agreement among physicians regarding predictability and preventability of medical readmissions. Design: An online survey based...... on eight real-life case scenarios was distributed to European physicians. Methods: Physicians were requested to rate from the first four (index admission) scenarios whether they expected these patients to be readmitted within 30 days (the predictability). The remaining four cases, describing a readmission...

  5. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  6. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  7. New constraints on inflation from the cosmic microwave background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, William H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Riotto, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The recent data from the BOOMERANG and MAXIMA-1 balloon flights have marked the beginning of the precision era of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. We investigate the observational constraints from the current CMB anisotropy measurements on the simplest inflation models, characterized by a single scalar field φ, in the parameter space consisting of scalar spectral index n S and tensor/scalar ratio r. If we include constraints on the baryon density from big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), we show that the favored inflationary models have a negligible tensor amplitude and a red tilt, with a best fit of n S ≅0.93, which is consistent with the simplest small-field inflation models, but rules out large-field models at the 1σ level. Without including BBN constraints, a broader range of models is consistent with the data. The best fit (assuming negligible reionization) is a scale-invariant spectrum, n S ≅1, which includes large-field and hybrid scenarios. Large-field models (such as those typical of the chaotic inflation scenario) with a tilt n S <0.9 are strongly disfavored in all cases

  8. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  9. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  10. Development of a Bayesian model to estimate health care outcomes in the severely wounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Stojadinovic

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexander Stojadinovic1, John Eberhardt2, Trevor S Brown3, Jason S Hawksworth4, Frederick Gage3, Douglas K Tadaki3, Jonathan A Forsberg5, Thomas A Davis3, Benjamin K Potter5, James R Dunne6, E A Elster31Combat Wound Initiative Program, 4Department of Surgery, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA; 2DecisionQ Corporation, Washington, DC, USA; 3Regenerative Medicine Department, Combat Casualty Care, Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, MD, USA; 5Integrated Department of Orthopaedics and Rehabilitation, 6Department of Surgery, National Naval Medical Center, Bethesda, MD, USABackground: Graphical probabilistic models have the ability to provide insights as to how clinical factors are conditionally related. These models can be used to help us understand factors influencing health care outcomes and resource utilization, and to estimate morbidity and clinical outcomes in trauma patient populations.Study design: Thirty-two combat casualties with severe extremity injuries enrolled in a prospective observational study were analyzed using step-wise machine-learned Bayesian belief network (BBN and step-wise logistic regression (LR. Models were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation to calculate area-under-the-curve (AUC from receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves.Results: Our BBN showed important associations between various factors in our data set that could not be developed using standard regression methods. Cross-validated ROC curve analysis showed that our BBN model was a robust representation of our data domain and that LR models trained on these findings were also robust: hospital-acquired infection (AUC: LR, 0.81; BBN, 0.79, intensive care unit length of stay (AUC: LR, 0.97; BBN, 0.81, and wound healing (AUC: LR, 0.91; BBN, 0.72 showed strong AUC.Conclusions: A BBN model can effectively represent clinical outcomes and biomarkers in patients hospitalized after severe wounding, and is confirmed by 10-fold

  11. Dark/visible parallel universes and Big Bang nucleosynthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertulani, C. A.; Frederico, T.; Fuqua, J.; Hussein, M. S.; Oliveira, O.; Paula, W. de

    2012-01-01

    We develop a model for visible matter-dark matter interaction based on the exchange of a massive gray boson called herein the Mulato. Our model hinges on the assumption that all known particles in the visible matter have their counterparts in the dark matter. We postulate six families of particles five of which are dark. This leads to the unavoidable postulation of six parallel worlds, the visible one and five invisible worlds. A close study of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), baryon asymmetries, cosmic microwave background (CMB) bounds, galaxy dynamics, together with the Standard Model assumptions, help us to set a limit on the mass and width of the new gauge boson. Modification of the statistics underlying the kinetic energy distribution of particles during the BBN is also discussed. The changes in reaction rates during the BBN due to a departure from the Debye-Hueckel electron screening model is also investigated.

  12. First-in-human study of PET and optical dual-modality image-guided surgery in glioblastoma using 68Ga-IRDye800CW-BBN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Deling; Zhang, Jingjing; Chi, Chongwei; Xiao, Xiong; Wang, Junmei; Lang, Lixin; Ali, Iqbal; Niu, Gang; Zhang, Liwei; Tian, Jie; Ji, Nan; Zhu, Zhaohui; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2018-01-01

    Purpose : Despite the use of fluorescence-guided surgery (FGS), maximum safe resection of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) remains a major challenge. It has restricted surgeons between preoperative diagnosis and intraoperative treatment. Currently, an integrated approach combining preoperative assessment with intraoperative guidance would be a significant step in this direction. Experimental design : We developed a novel 68 Ga-IRDye800CW-BBN PET/near-infrared fluorescence (NIRF) dual-modality imaging probe targeting gastrin-releasing peptide receptor (GRPR) in GBM. The preclinical in vivo tumor imaging and FGS were first evaluated using an orthotopic U87MG glioma xenograft model. Subsequently, the first-in-human prospective cohort study (NCT 02910804) of GBM patients were conducted with preoperative PET assessment and intraoperative FGS. Results : The orthotopic tumors in mice could be precisely resected using the near-infrared intraoperative system. Translational cohort research in 14 GBM patients demonstrated an excellent correlation between preoperative positive PET uptake and intraoperative NIRF signal. The tumor fluorescence signals were significantly higher than those from adjacent brain tissue in vivo and ex vivo (p dual-modality imaging technique is feasible for integrated pre- and intraoperative targeted imaging via the same molecular receptor and improved intraoperative GBM visualization and maximum safe resection.

  13. Application of scenario analysis in the investment projects evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzaković Tomislav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Investing represents an investment in the present to achieve certain effects in the future, and risk is an essential part of the investment process. Scenario analysis involves key risk factors of the project, its sensitivity to changes in key factors and the likelihood of their changes. Scenario analysis allows us to assign probabilities to the base case, the best case and the worst case so that we can find the expected value and standard deviation of the project's NPV to get a better idea of the project's risk. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to make relevant investment decisions on the basis of the parameters of projects risk, such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The paper is based on a mathematical model, applied to a specific agricultural company. In our case, the project has a wide range of possibilities and a large potential negative value, which suggests a great risk of the project. Although the scenario analysis shows a higher risk, it is not clear if the project should be accepted or not, and therefore, it is necessary to conduct simulation analysis, in order to get reliable answers.

  14. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  15. Extensible Adaptive System for STEM Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-16

    Copyright 2013 Raytheon BBN Technologies Corp. All Rights Reserved ONR STEM Grand Challenge Extensible Adaptive System for STEM Learning ...Contract # N00014-12-C-0535 Raytheon BBN Technologies Corp. (BBN) Reference # 14217 In partial fulfillment of contract deliverable item # A001...Quarterly Progress Report #2 April 7, 2013 –July 6, 2013 Submitted July 16, 2013 BBN Technical POC: John Makhoul Raytheon BBN Technologies

  16. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  17. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  18. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

    1994-01-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

  19. Big-bang nucleosynthesis with high-energy photon injection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holtmann, Erich Nielsen [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1999-05-01

    The author discusses the photodissociation of light elements due to the radiative decay of a massive particle, and he has shown how to constrain the model parameters from the observed light-element abundances. He adopted two quasar absorption system (QAS) D/H values, as well as solar system data for D/H and 3He/H. For each of these, he used two 4He values. He presents his results in terms of the confidence level at which each theoretical parameter set (i.e., the set of properties of a radiatively decaying particle) is excluded by the observed abundances. His algorithm for computing the confidence level is consistent and general enough to apply not only to the scenarios investigated in this work, but also to many other non-standard theories of BBN.

  20. Search for neutral Higgs bosons in CP-conserving and CP-violating MSSM scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Abbiendi, G.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Amaral, P.; Anagnostou, G.; Anderson, K.J.; Asai, S.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Barberio, E.; Barillari, T.; Barlow, R.J.; Batley, R.J.; Bechtle, P.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bell, P.J.; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Benelli, G.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Boeriu, O.; Bock, P.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Buesser, K.; Burckhart, H.J.; Campana, S.; Carnegie, R.K.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, D.G.; Ciocca, C.; Csilling, A.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, John William; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Giunta, Marina; Goldberg, J.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Gupta, A.; Hajdu, C.; Hamann, M.; Hanson, G.G.; Harel, A.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Horvath, D.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jeremie, H.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karlen, D.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kluth, S.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Komamiya, S.; Kramer, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kruger, K.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Layter, J.G.; Lellouch, D.; Lettso, J.; Levinson, L.; Lillich, J.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, A.; Ludwig, J.; Mader, W.; Marcellini, S.; Martin, A.J.; Masetti, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McKenna, J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Menges, W.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Meyer, Niels T.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Moed, S.; Mohr, W.; Mori, T.; Mutter, A.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Nanjo, H.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oh, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pahl, C.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rabbertz, K.; Rembser, C.; Renkel, P.; Roney, J.M.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schieck, J.; Schorner-Sadenius, T.; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Sherwood, P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spano, F.; Stahl, A.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Tarem, S.; Tasevsky, M.; Teuscher, R.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Toya, D.; Tran, P.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Ujvari, B.; Vollmer, C.F.; Vannerem, P.; Vertesi, R.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wilson, G.W.; Wilson, J.A.; Wolf, G.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zer-Zion, D.; Zivkovic, Lidija

    2004-01-01

    This report summarizes the final results from the OPAL collaboration on searches for neutral Higgs bosons predicted by the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). CP-conserving and for the first time at LEP CP-violating scenarios are studied. New scenarios are also included, which aim to set the stage for Higgs searches at future colliders. The results are based on the data collected with the OPAL detector at e+e- centre-of-mass energies up to 209 GeV. The data are consistent with the prediction of the Standard Model with no Higgs boson produced. Model-independent limits are derived for the cross-section of a number of events topologies motivated by prediction of the MSSM. Limits on Higgs boson masses and other MSSM parameters are obtained for a number of representative MSSM benchmark scenarios. For example, in the CP-conserving scenario mh-max where the MSSM parameters are adjusted to predict the largest range of values for mh at each tan beta, and for a top quark mass of 174.3 GeV, the domain 0.784.5 ...

  1. Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

    2010-01-01

    Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

  2. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  3. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  4. A fresh look into the interacting dark matter scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Miguel; Lopez-Honorez, Laura; Mena, Olga; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Villanueva-Domingo, Pablo

    2018-06-01

    The elastic scattering between dark matter particles and radiation represents an attractive possibility to solve a number of discrepancies between observations and standard cold dark matter predictions, as the induced collisional damping would imply a suppression of small-scale structures. We consider this scenario and confront it with measurements of the ionization history of the Universe at several redshifts and with recent estimates of the counts of Milky Way satellite galaxies. We derive a conservative upper bound on the dark matter-photon elastic scattering cross section of σγ DM non-cold dark matter candidates, such as interacting and warm dark matter scenarios. Let us emphasize that bounds of similar magnitude to the ones obtained here could be also derived for models with dark matter-neutrino interactions and would be as constraining as the tightest limits on such scenarios.

  5. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  6. Study of 'inadvertent human intrusion or rare natural event scenarios' for sub-surface disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakatani, Takayoshi; Ishitoya, Kimihide; Funabashi, Hideyuki; Sugaya, Toshikatsu; Sone, Tomoyuki; Shimada, Hidemitsu; Nakai, Kunihiro

    2010-03-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is making preparations for the sub-surface disposal of radioactive wastes, in an integrated fashion according to the properties of the waste material regardless of the generators or waste sources. In this study, 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' of 'Three Types scenarios' was considered according to the standard of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) on the sub-surface disposal system that was based on 'Basic Policy for Safety Regulation Concerning Land Disposal of Low-Level Radioactive Waste (Interim Report)' by Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (NSC). Selection of the assessed scenarios, development of the assessment tool and preliminary exposure dose assessment for general public were conducted. Among the assessed scenarios, the exposure dose of 'well water drinking scenario' was the highest under the very conservative assessment condition. This scenario assumed that the groundwater in Excavation Disturbed Zone (EDZ) was directly used as drinking water without any dilution. Although this was very conservative condition and the result exceeded 10 mSv/y, it stayed under the upper limit of standard dose value for 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' (10 - 100 mSv/y). (author)

  7. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  8. Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avihay Cohen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

  9. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  10. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  11. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  12. Comparison of mixed-Higgs scenarios in the NMSSM and the MSSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dermisek, Radovan; Gunion, John F.

    2008-01-01

    We study scenarios in the minimal and next-to-minimal supersymmetric models in which the lightest CP-even Higgs boson can have mass below the 114 GeV standard model LEP limit by virtue of reduced ZZ coupling due to substantial mixing among the Higgs bosons. We pay particular attention to the size of corrections from superpartners needed for these scenarios to be viable and point to boundary conditions at large scales which lead to these scenarios while at the same time keeping electroweak fine-tuning modest in size. We find that naturalness of electroweak symmetry breaking in the mixed-Higgs scenarios of both models points to the same region of soft supersymmetry breaking terms as in the decoupled scenarios with mass of the CP even Higgs boson above 114 GeV, namely those leading to large mixing in the stop sector at the electroweak scale, especially if we also require that the lightest CP-even Higgs explains the Higgs-like LEP events at ∼98 GeV

  13. Breaking Be: a sterile neutrino solution to the cosmological lithium problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvati, L.; Melchiorri, A. [Physics Department and INFN, Università di Roma ' ' La Sapienza' ' , P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy); Pagano, L. [Institut d' Astrophysique Spatiale, CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, Bât. 121, 91405 Orsay cedex (France); Lattanzi, M. [Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara and INFN, Sezione di Ferrara, Polo Scientifico e Tecnologico—Edificio C Via Saragat, 1, I-44122 Ferrara (Italy); Gerbino, M., E-mail: laura.salvati@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: lpagano@ias.u-psdu.fr, E-mail: lattanzi@fe.infn.it, E-mail: martina.gerbino@fysik.su.se, E-mail: alessandro.melchiorri@roma1.infn.it [The Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Department of Physics, Stockholm University, AlbaNova, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2016-08-01

    The possibility that the so-called ''lithium problem'', i.e., the disagreement between the theoretical abundance predicted for primordial {sup 7}Li assuming standard nucleosynthesis and the value inferred from astrophysical measurements, can be solved through a non-thermal Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) mechanism has been investigated by several authors. In particular, it has been shown that the decay of a MeV-mass particle, like, e.g., a sterile neutrino, decaying after BBN not only solves the lithium problem, but also satisfies cosmological and laboratory bounds, making such a scenario worth to be investigated in further detail. In this paper, we constrain the parameters of the model with the combination of current data, including Planck 2015 measurements of temperature and polarization anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), FIRAS limits on CMB spectral distortions, astrophysical measurements of primordial abundances and laboratory constraints. We find that a sterile neutrino with mass M {sub S} = 4.35{sub -0.17}{sup +0.13} MeV (at 95% c.l.), a decay time τ {sub S} = 1.8{sub -1.3}{sup +2.5} · 10{sup 5} s (at 95% c.l.) and an initial density n-bar {sub S} / n-bar {sub cmb} = 1.7{sub -0.6}{sup +3.5} · 10{sup -4} (at 95% c.l.) in units of the number density of CMB photons, perfectly accounts for the difference between predicted and observed {sup 7}Li primordial abundance. This model also predicts an increase of the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom at the time of CMB decoupling Δ N {sub eff}{sup cmb} ≡ N {sub eff}{sup cmb} -3.046 = 0.34{sub -0.14}{sup +0.16} at 95% c.l.. The required abundance of sterile neutrinos is incompatible with the standard thermal history of the Universe, but could be realized in a low reheating temperature scenario. We also provide forecasts for future experiments finding that the combination of measurements from the COrE+ and PIXIE missions will allow to significantly reduce the

  14. Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis with Negatively-Charged Massive Particles as a Cosmological Solution to the 6Li and 7Li Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusakabe, Motohiko; Kajino, Toshitaka; Boyd, Richard N.; Yoshida, Takashi; Mathews, Grant J.

    2008-01-01

    Observations of metal poor halo stars exhibit a possible plateau of 6 Li abundance as a function of metallicity similar to that for 7 Li, suggesting a big bang origin. However, the inferred primordial abundance of 6 Li is ∼1000 times larger than that predicted by standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) for the baryon-to-photon ratio inferred from the WMAP data. On the other hand, the inferred 7 Li primordial abundance is about 3 times smaller than the prediction. We study a possible simultaneous solution to both the problems of underproduction of 6 Li and overproduction of 7 Li in BBN. This solution involves a hypothetical massive, negatively-charged leptonic particle that would bind to the light nuclei produced in BBN, but would decay long before it could be detected. Because the particle gets bound to the existing nuclei after the cessation of the usual big bang nuclear reactions, a second longer epoch of nucleosynthesis can occur among X-nuclei which have reduced Coulomb barriers. We numerically carry out a fully dynamical BBN calculation, simultaneously solving the recombination and ionization processes of negatively-charged particles by normal and X-nuclei as well as many possible nuclear reactions among them. We confirm that a reaction in which the hypothetical particle is transferred can occur that greatly enhance the production of 6 Li while a reaction through an atomic excited state of X-nucleus depletes 7 Li. It is confirmed that BBN in the presence of these hypothetical particles, together with or without an event of stellar burning process, can simultaneously solve the two Li abundance problems

  15. Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-08-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of

  16. Understanding Migration as an Adaptation in Deltas Using a Bayesian Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, A. N.; Adams, H.; de Campos, R. S.; Mortreux, C. C.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Amisigo, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Deltas are hotspots of high population density, fertile lands and dramatic environmental and anthropogenic pressures and changes. Amongst other environmental factors, sea level rise, soil salinization, water shortages and erosion threaten people's livelihoods and wellbeing. As a result, there is a growing concern that significant environmental change induced migration might occur from these areas. Migration, however, is already happening for economic, education and other reasons (e.g. livelihood change, marriage, planned relocation, etc.). Migration hence has multiple, interlinked drivers and depending on the perspective, can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon. The DECCMA project (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) studies migration as part of a suite of adaptation options available to the coastal populations in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh, the Mahanadi delta in India and the Volta delta in Ghana. It aims to develop a holistic framework of analysis that assesses the impact of climate and environmental change on the migration patterns of these areas. This assessment framework will couple environmental, socio-economics and governance dimensions in an attempt to synthesise drivers and barriers and allow testing of plausible future scenarios. One of the integrative methods of DECCMA is a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model describing the decision-making of a coastal household. BBN models are built on qualitative and quantitative observations/expert knowledge and describe the probability of different events/responses etc. BBN models are especially useful to capture uncertainties of large systems and engaging with stakeholders. The DECCMA BBN model is based on household survey results from delta migrant sending areas. This presentation will describe model elements (livelihood sensitivity to climate change, local and national adaptation options, household characteristics/attitude, social networks, household decision) and

  17. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    Since 1992, mild but persistent seismic and fumarolic unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano has prompted renewed concern about hazards and risks, crisis response planning, and has rejuvenated interest in geological studies. Scientists monitoring active volcanoes frequently have to provide science-based decision support to civil authorities during such periods of unrest. In these circumstances, the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) offers a formalized evidence analysis tool for making inferences about the state of the volcano from different strands of data, allowing associated uncertainties to be treated in a rational and auditable manner, to the extent warranted by the strength of the evidence. To illustrate the principles of the BBN approach, a retrospective analysis is undertaken of the 1975-77 crisis, providing an inferential assessment of the evolving state of the magmatic system and the probability of subsequent eruption. Conditional dependencies and parameters in the BBN are characterized quantitatively by structured expert elicitation. Revisiting data available in 1976 suggests the probability of magmatic intrusion would have been evaluated high at the time, according with subsequent thinking about the volcanological nature of the episode. The corresponding probability of a magmatic eruption therefore would have been elevated in July and August 1976; however, collective uncertainty about the future course of the crisis was great at the time, even if some individual opinions were certain. From this BBN analysis, while the more likely appraised outcome - based on observational trends at 31 August 1976 - might have been 'no eruption' (mean probability 0.5; 5-95 percentile range 0.8), an imminent magmatic eruption (or blast) could have had a probability of about 0.4, almost as substantial. Thus, there was no real scientific basis to assert one scenario was more likely than the other. This retrospective evaluation adds objective probabilistic expression to

  18. Difficult scenarios for NMSSM Higgs discovery at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellwanger, Ulrich; Gunion, John F.; Hugonie, Cyril

    2005-01-01

    We identify scenarios not ruled out by LEP data in which NMSSM Higgs detection at the LHC will be particularly challenging. We first review the 'no-lose' theorem for Higgs discovery at the LHC that applies if Higgs bosons do not decay to other Higgs bosons - namely, with L = 300 fb -1 , there is always one or more 'standard' Higgs detection channel with at least a 5σ signal. However, we provide examples of no-Higgs-to-Higgs cases for which all the standard signals are no larger than 7σ implying that if the available L is smaller or the simulations performed by ATLAS and CMS turn out to be overly optimistic, all standard Higgs signals could fall below 5σ even in the no-Higgs-to-Higgs part of NMSSM parameter space. In the vast bulk of NMSSM parameter space, there will be Higgs-to-Higgs decays. We show that when such decays are present it is possible for all the standard detection channels to have very small significance. In most such cases, the only strongly produced Higgs boson is one with fairly SM-like couplings that decays to two lighter Higgs bosons (either a pair of the lightest CP-even Higgs bosons, or, in the largest part of parameter space, a pair of the lightest CP-odd Higgs bosons). A number of representative bench-mark scenarios of this type are delineated in detail and implications for Higgs discovery at various colliders are discussed

  19. Comparative in vitro and in vivo evaluation of two 64Cu-labeled bombesin analogs in a mouse model of human prostate adenocarcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Y.-S.; Zhang Xianzhong; Xiong Zhengming; Chen Xiaoyuan

    2006-01-01

    Bombesin (BBN), an analog of human gastrin-releasing peptide (GRP), binds to the GRP receptor (GRPR) with high affinity and specificity. Overexpression of GRPR has been discovered in mostly androgen-independent human prostate tissues and, thus, provides a potential target for prostate cancer diagnosis and therapy. We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of the positron emission tomography (PET) imaging using 64 Cu-1,4,7,10-tetraazadodecane-N,N',N'',N'''-tetraacetic acid (DOTA)-[Lys 3 ]BBN to detect GRPR-positive prostate cancer. In this study, we compared the receptor affinity, metabolic stability, tumor-targeting efficacy, and pharmacokinetics of a truncated BBN analog 64 Cu-DOTA-Aca-BBN(7-14) with 64 Cu-DOTA-[Lys 3 ]BBN. Binding of each DOTA conjugate to GRPR on PC-3 and 22Rv1 prostate cancer cells was evaluated with competitive binding assay using 125 I-[Tyr 4 ]BBN as radioligand. In vivo pharmacokinetics was determined on male nude mice subcutaneously implanted with PC-3 cells. Dynamic microPET imaging was performed to evaluate the systemic distribution of the tracers. Metabolic stability of the tracers in blood, urine, tumor, liver and kidney was studied using high-performance liquid chromatography. The results showed that 125 I-[Tyr 4 ]BBN has a K d of 14.8±0.4 nM against PC-3 cells, and the receptor concentration on PC-3 cell surface is approximately 2.7±0.1x10 6 receptors per cell. The 50% inhibitory concentration value for DOTA-Aca-BBN(7-14) is 18.4±0.2 nM, and that for DOTA-[Lys 3 ]BBN is 2.2±0.5 nM. DOTA-[Lys 3 ]BBN shows a better tumor contrast and absolute tumor activity accumulation compared to DOTA-Aca-BBN(7-14). Studies on metabolic stability for both tracers on organ homogenates showed that 64 Cu-DOTA-[Lys 3 ]BBN is relatively stable. This study demonstrated that both tracers are suitable for targeted PET imaging to detect the expression of GRPR in prostate cancer, while 64 Cu-DOTA-[Lys 3 ]BBN may have a better potential for clinical

  20. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  1. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  2. The new radiation protection law. Exposure scenarios and disposal; Das neue Strahlenschutzrecht. Expositionssituationen und Entsorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2017-07-01

    The proceedings of the meeting (October 2017, Hannover) on the new radiation protection law includes abstracts concerning the following sessions: actual development in radiation protection jurisdiction, implementation of the EU basic safety standards (BSS) in Europe, planned exposure scenarios, existing exposure scenarios, emergency exposure situations, final radioactive waste disposal, education, radon, radiation protection issues, statistics, medical radiation exposure.

  3. Preventive but Not Curative Efficacy of Celecoxib on Bladder Carcinogenesis in a Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Sereno

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the effect of a cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitor, celecoxib (CEL, on bladder cancer inhibition in a rat model, when used as preventive versus as curative treatment. The study comprised 52 male Wistar rats, divided in 5 groups, during a 20-week protocol: control: vehicle, carcinogen: 0.05% of N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl nitrosamine (BBN, CEL: 10 mg/kg/day of the selective COX-2 inhibitor Celebrex, preventive CEL (CEL+BBN-P, and curative CEL (BBN+CEL-C groups. Although tumor growth was markedly inhibited by the preventive application of CEL, it was even aggravated by the curative treatment. The incidence of gross bladder carcinoma was: control 0/8(0%, BBN 13/20(65%, CEL 0/8(0%, CEL+BBN-P 1/8(12.5%, and BBN+CEL-C 6/8(75%. The number and volume of carcinomas were significantly lower in the CEL+BBN-P versus BBN, accompanied by an ample reduction in hyperplasia, dysplasia, and papillary tumors as well as COX-2 immunostaining. In spite of the reduction of tumor volumes in the curative BBN+CEL-C group, tumor malignancy was augmented. An anti-inflammatory and antioxidant profile was encountered only in the group under preventive treatment. In conclusion, preventive, but not curative, celecoxib treatment promoted a striking inhibitory effect on bladder cancer development, reinforcing the potential role of chemopreventive strategies based on cyclooxygenase 2 inhibition.

  4. Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

  5. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  6. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  7. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  8. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  9. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  10. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  11. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  12. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  13. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  14. GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

    2009-12-01

    Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

  15. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  16. Constraining sleptons at the LHC in a supersymmetric low-scale seesaw scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cerna-Velazco, Nhell; Jones-Perez, Joel [Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Seccion Fisica, Departamento de Ciencias, Lima (Peru); Faber, Thomas; Porod, Werner [Uni Wuerzburg, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a scenario inspired by natural supersymmetry, where neutrino data is explained within a low-scale seesaw scenario. We extend the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model by adding light right-handed neutrinos and their superpartners, the R-sneutrinos, and consider the lightest neutralinos to be higgsino-like. We consider the possibilities of having either an R-sneutrino or a higgsino as lightest supersymmetric particle. Assuming that squarks and gauginos are heavy, we systematically evaluate the bounds on slepton masses due to existing LHC data. (orig.)

  17. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  18. A Simulated Clinical Skills Scenario to Teach Interprofessional Teamwork to Health Profession Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eileen Adel Herge

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Eastern Pennsylvania Delaware Geriatric Education Center developed an Interprofessional Clinical Skills Scenario (CSS to facilitate development of teamwork skills, specifically decision making, communication and collaboration, in health professions students in medicine, nursing, pharmacy, occupational and physical therapy programs. The case scenario provides students with the opportunity to practice communication and collaboration with a team and standardized patient and caregiver in a simulated clinical setting. The CSS was integrated into an existing occupational therapy course in 2011. Students were recruited by faculty from various schools (health professions, pharmacy, nursing, medicine throughout the university to participate in the CSS. The program evaluation included demographic assessment, process, and outcome measures. 166 students have participated in the CSS. Pre- and post-tests measured students' attitude toward healthcare teams. A Team Observation Tool was used by faculty and standardized patients/caregivers to evaluate student teams on communication, information sharing, and team interaction. A satisfaction survey was completed by the learners at the end of the CSS. This simulated Clinical Skills Scenario is a practical, interactive exercise that allows teams of interprofessional students to practice teamwork skills and patient-centered care with standardized patients and caregivers. Following a review of the learning activity and evaluation tools, the authors reflect on the effectiveness of the evaluation process for this CSS.

  19. Effects of QCD bound states on dark matter relic abundance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liew, Seng Pei [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo,Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Luo, Feng [Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo,Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan)

    2017-02-17

    We study scenarios where there exists an exotic massive particle charged under QCD in the early Universe. We calculate the formation and dissociation rates of bound states formed by pairs of these particles, and apply the results in dark matter (DM) coannihilation scenarios, including also the Sommerfeld effect. We find that on top of the Sommerfeld enhancement, bound-state effects can further significantly increase the largest possible DM masses which can give the observed DM relic abundance, by ∼30–100% with respect to values obtained by considering the Sommerfeld effect only, for the color triplet or octet exotic particles we consider. In particular, it indicates that the Bino DM mass in the right-handed stop-Bino coannihilation scenario in the Minimal Supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) can reach ∼2.5 TeV, even though the potential between the stop and antistop prior to forming a bound state is repulsive. We also apply the bound-state effects in the calculations of relic abundance of long-lived or metastable massive colored particles, and discuss the implications on the BBN constraints and the abundance of a super-weakly interacting DM. The corrections for the bound-state effect when the exotic massive colored particles also carry electric charges, and the collider bounds are also discussed.

  20. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Doctors' stress responses and poor communication performance in simulated bad-news consultations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Rhonda; Dunn, Stewart; Byrnes, Karen; Morris, Richard; Heinrich, Paul; Shaw, Joanne

    2009-11-01

    No studies have previously evaluated factors associated with high stress levels and poor communication performance in breaking bad news (BBN) consultations. This study determined factors that were most strongly related to doctors' stress responses and poor communication performance during a simulated BBN task. In 2007, the authors recruited 24 doctors comprising 12 novices (i.e., interns/residents with 1-3 years' experience) and 12 experts (i.e., registrars, medical/radiation oncologists, or cancer surgeons, with more than 4 years' experience). Doctors participated in simulated BBN consultations and a number of control tasks. Five-minute-epoch heart rate (HR), HR variability, and communication performance were assessed in all participants. Subjects also completed a short questionnaire asking about their prior experience BBN, perceived stress, psychological distress (i.e., anxiety, depression), fatigue, and burnout. High stress responses were related to inexperience with BBN, fatigue, and giving bad versus good news. Poor communication performance in the consultation was related to high burnout and fatigue scores. These results suggest that BBN was a stressful experience for doctors even in a simulated encounter, especially for those who were inexperienced and/or fatigued. Poor communication performance was related to burnout and fatigue, but not inexperience with BBN. These results likely indicate that burnout and fatigue contributed to stress and poor work performance in some doctors during the simulated BBN task.

  2. Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

  3. MSSM Higgs boson searches at the LHC: benchmark scenarios after the discovery of a Higgs-like particle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Staal, O.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.

    2013-01-01

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low-energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known m h max scenario, and a modified scenario (m h mod ), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the M A -tan β plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h→γγ at large tan β. We also suggest a τ-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the μ parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non-SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H→hh. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-M H scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV. (orig.)

  4. Anomaly mediated SUSY breaking scenarios in the light of cosmology and in the dark (matter)

    CERN Document Server

    Arbey, A; Tarhini, A

    2011-01-01

    Anomaly mediation is a popular and well motivated supersymmetry breaking scenario. Different possible detailed realisations of this set-up are studied and actively searched for at colliders. Apart from limits coming from flavour, low energy physics and direct collider searches, these models are usually constrained by the requirement of reproducing the observations on dark matter density in the universe. We reanalyse these bounds and in particular we focus on the dark matter bounds both considering the standard cosmological model and alternative cosmological scenarios. These scenarios do not change the observable cosmology but relic dark matter density bounds strongly depend on them. We consider few benchmark points excluded by standard cosmology dark matter bounds and suggest that loosening the dark matter constraints is necessary in order to avoid a too strong (cosmological) model dependence in the limits that are obtained for these models. We also discuss briefly the implications for phenomenology and in pa...

  5. From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

    One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

  6. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  7. Dynamical matter-parity breaking and gravitino dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Jonas; Weniger, Christoph; Yanagida, Tsutomu T.; Tokyo Univ.

    2010-10-01

    Scenarios where gravitinos with GeV masses make up dark matter are known to be in tension with high reheating temperatures, as required by e.g. thermal leptogenesis. This tension comes from the longevity of the NLSPs, which can destroy the successful predictions of the standard primordial nucleosynthesis. However, a small violation of matter parity can open new decay channels for the NLSP, avoiding the BBN problems, while being compatible with experimental cosmic-ray constraints. In this paper, we propose a model where matter parity, which we assume to be embedded in the U(1) B-L gauge symmetry, is broken dynamically in a hidden sector at low scales. This can naturally explain the smallness of the matter parity breaking in the visible sector. We discuss the dynamics of the corresponding pseudo Nambu-Goldstone modes of B-L breaking in the hidden sector, and we comment on typical cosmic-ray and collider signatures in our model. (orig.)

  8. Dynamical matter-parity breaking and gravitino dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, Jonas; Weniger, Christoph [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Tokyo Univ. (JP). Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU); Yanagida, Tsutomu T. [Tokyo Univ. (JP). Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU); Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics

    2010-10-15

    Scenarios where gravitinos with GeV masses make up dark matter are known to be in tension with high reheating temperatures, as required by e.g. thermal leptogenesis. This tension comes from the longevity of the NLSPs, which can destroy the successful predictions of the standard primordial nucleosynthesis. However, a small violation of matter parity can open new decay channels for the NLSP, avoiding the BBN problems, while being compatible with experimental cosmic-ray constraints. In this paper, we propose a model where matter parity, which we assume to be embedded in the U(1){sub B-L} gauge symmetry, is broken dynamically in a hidden sector at low scales. This can naturally explain the smallness of the matter parity breaking in the visible sector. We discuss the dynamics of the corresponding pseudo Nambu-Goldstone modes of B-L breaking in the hidden sector, and we comment on typical cosmic-ray and collider signatures in our model. (orig.)

  9. Asymmetric Dark Matter and Dark Radiation

    CERN Document Server

    Blennow, Mattias; Mena, Olga; Redondo, Javier; Serra, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    Asymmetric Dark Matter (ADM) models invoke a particle-antiparticle asymmetry, similar to the one observed in the Baryon sector, to account for the Dark Matter (DM) abundance. Both asymmetries are usually generated by the same mechanism and generally related, thus predicting DM masses around 5 GeV in order to obtain the correct density. The main challenge for successful models is to ensure efficient annihilation of the thermally produced symmetric component of such a light DM candidate without violating constraints from collider or direct searches. A common way to overcome this involves a light mediator, into which DM can efficiently annihilate and which subsequently decays into Standard Model particles. Here we explore the scenario where the light mediator decays instead into lighter degrees of freedom in the dark sector that act as radiation in the early Universe. While this assumption makes indirect DM searches challenging, it leads to signals of extra radiation at BBN and CMB. Under certain conditions, pre...

  10. Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliston, Ben; MacGill, Iain; Diesendorf, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplified transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario

  11. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  12. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  13. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  14. Omega-3 Fatty Acids Inhibit Tumor Growth in a Rat Model of Bladder Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belmiro Parada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Omega-3 (ω-3 fatty acids have been tested on prevention and treatment of several cancer types, but the efficacy on “in vivo” bladder cancer has not been analyzed yet. This study aimed at evaluating the chemopreventive efficacy of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA mixture in an animal model of bladder cancer. Forty-four male Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups during a 20-week protocol: control; carcinogen—N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl nitrosamine (BBN; ω-3 (DHA + EPA; and ω-3 + BBN. BBN and ω-3 were given during the initial 8 weeks. At week 20 blood and bladder were collected and checked for the presence of urothelium lesions and tumors, markers of inflammation, proliferation, and redox status. Incidence of bladder carcinoma was, control (0%, ω-3 (0%, BBN (65%, and ω-3 + BBN (62.5%. The ω-3 + BBN group had no infiltrative tumors or carcinoma in situ, and tumor volume was significantly reduced compared to the BBN (0.9 ± 0.1 mm3 versus 112.5 ± 6.4 mm3. Also, it showed a reduced MDA/TAS ratio and BBN-induced serum CRP, TGF-β1, and CD31 were prevented. In conclusion, omega-3 fatty acids inhibit the development of premalignant and malignant lesions in a rat model of bladder cancer, which might be due to anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, anti-proliferative, and anti-angiogenic properties.

  15. Guidance for a harmonized emission scenario document (ESD) on ballast water discharge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zipperle, Andreas [BIS - Beratungszentrum fuer integriertes Sedimentmanagement, Hamburg (Germany); Gils, Jos van [DELTARES, Delft (Netherlands); Hattum, Bert van [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). IVM - Institute for Environmental Studies; Heise, Susanne [BIS - Beratungszentrum fuer integriertes Sedimentmanagement, Hamburg (Germany); Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany)

    2011-05-15

    The present report provides guidance for a harmonized Emission Scenario Document (ESD) for the exposure assessment as part of the environmental risk assessment process which applicants seeking approval of a ballast water management system (BWMS) need to perform prior to notification and authorisation procedures. Despite the global variability of the marine environment, ballast water discharges and treatment methods, exposure assessments need to be comparable between different applications. In order to achieve this, this ESD points out the following aspects: - Applicants should use standardized scenarios in order to predict mean exposure. These should reflect generic situations, independent of region or port so that results are widely applicable. In addition to a harbour scenario, a standardized shipping lane scenario should be considered, - During or right after ballast water discharge, high concentrations may persist in a water body for a certain length of time until extensive mixing results in mean concentrations. Not taking exposure to peak concentrations within gradients into account could lead to an underestimation of risk, especially for rapidly degrading substances. Efforts have been made to approximate maximum exposure concentration with simple dilution factors. Their applicability was checked by near-field-evaluations. - Chemical properties determine the environmental fate of substances. If they are ambiguous, selection of a specific set of data strongly influences the result of an exposure assessment. Guidance is given on what to do about lacking data. - In order to harmonize the exposure assessments, reliable chemical model software should be used. A discussion on the requirements of suitable software and an evaluation of MAMPEC is given in this report. (orig.)

  16. Recent progress on test evidence, standardization and design of protection for exterior openings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strøm Ruth Astrid

    2016-01-01

    A number of different fire scenarios that elements in vented facades/constructions can be exposed to have been studied. New test standards have been developed for the last few years and are explained. Finally, this paper evaluate how different fire stop products perform in different fire scenarios and which test standards are applicable.

  17. Integrated wetland management for waterfowl and shorebirds at Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavernia, Brian G.; Stanton, John D.; Lyons, James E.

    2017-11-22

    Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) offers a mix of open water, marsh, forest, and cropland habitats on 20,307 hectares in coastal North Carolina. In 1934, Federal legislation (Executive Order 6924) established MNWR to benefit wintering waterfowl and other migratory bird species. On an annual basis, the refuge staff decide how to manage 14 impoundments to benefit not only waterfowl during the nonbreeding season, but also shorebirds during fall and spring migration. In making these decisions, the challenge is to select a portfolio, or collection, of management actions for the impoundments that optimizes use by the three groups of birds while respecting budget constraints. In this study, a decision support tool was developed for these annual management decisions.Within the decision framework, there are three different management objectives: shorebird-use days during fall and spring migrations, and waterfowl-use days during the nonbreeding season. Sixteen potential management actions were identified for impoundments; each action represents a combination of hydroperiod and vegetation manipulation. Example hydroperiods include semi-permanent and seasonal drawdowns, and vegetation manipulations include mechanical-chemical treatment, burning, disking, and no action. Expert elicitation was used to build a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model that predicts shorebird- and waterfowl-use days for each potential management action. The BBN was parameterized for a representative impoundment, MI-9, and predictions were re-scaled for this impoundment to predict outcomes at other impoundments on the basis of size. Parameter estimates in the BBN model can be updated using observations from ongoing monitoring that is part of the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring (IWMM) program.The optimal portfolio of management actions depends on the importance, that is, weights, assigned to the three objectives, as well as the budget. Five scenarios with a variety of objective

  18. Constraining axion dark matter with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blum, Kfir; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Lisanti, Mariangela; Safdi, Benjamin R.

    2014-01-01

    We show that Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) significantly constrains axion-like dark matter. The axion acts like an oscillating QCD θ angle that redshifts in the early Universe, increasing the neutron–proton mass difference at neutron freeze-out. An axion-like particle that couples too strongly to QCD results in the underproduction of 4 He during BBN and is thus excluded. The BBN bound overlaps with much of the parameter space that would be covered by proposed searches for a time-varying neutron EDM. The QCD axion does not couple strongly enough to affect BBN

  19. Constraining axion dark matter with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Kfir; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Lisanti, Mariangela; Safdi, Benjamin R.

    2014-10-01

    We show that Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) significantly constrains axion-like dark matter. The axion acts like an oscillating QCD θ angle that redshifts in the early Universe, increasing the neutron-proton mass difference at neutron freeze-out. An axion-like particle that couples too strongly to QCD results in the underproduction of 4He during BBN and is thus excluded. The BBN bound overlaps with much of the parameter space that would be covered by proposed searches for a time-varying neutron EDM. The QCD axion does not couple strongly enough to affect BBN.

  20. Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

  1. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  2. Identification performance of homeland security pocket and fixed devices for masking scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulcz, Francis; Gunnink, Ray; Giribaldi, Vincent; Ellenboegen, Michal

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The paper presents the principle and results of recent tests of the spectrometric pocket radiation detector PDS100GN/ID and of the spectrometric portal SPIR-Ident. We have first considered the masking scenarios listed in the relevant standards of illicit trafficking. Then we considered a larger choice of realistic masking scenarios in particular, popular medical isotopes mixed with special nuclear material. We estimated through direct measurements or by simulation based on recorded or synthesized spectra the limit of imbalance that can be detected. The consequences about the use and settings of the detection and identification devices are discussed. (author)

  3. See, reflect, learn more: qualitative analysis of breaking bad news reflective narratives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnieli-Miller, Orit; Palombo, Michal; Meitar, Dafna

    2018-05-01

    Breaking bad news (BBN) is a challenge that requires multiple professional competencies. BBN teaching often includes didactic and group role-playing sessions. Both are useful and important, but exclude another critical component of students' learning: day-to-day role-model observation in the clinics. Given the importance of observation and the potential benefit of reflective writing in teaching, we have incorporated reflective writing into our BBN course. The aim of this study was to enhance our understanding of the learning potential in reflective writing about BBN encounters and the ability to identify components that inhibit this learning. This was a systematic qualitative immersion/crystallization analysis of 166 randomly selected BBN narratives written by 83 senior medical students. We analysed the narratives in an iterative consensus-building process to identify the issues discussed, the lessons learned and the enhanced understanding of BBN. Having previously been unaware of, not invited to or having avoided BBN encounters, the mandatory assignment led students to search for or ask their mentors to join them in BBN encounters. Observation and reflective writing enhanced students' awareness that 'bad news' is relative and subjective, while shedding light on patients', families', physicians' and their own experiences and needs, revealing the importance of the different components of the BBN protocol. We identified diversity among the narratives and the extent of students' learning. Narrative writing provided students with an opportunity for a deliberative learning process. This led to deeper understanding of BBN encounters, of how to apply the newly taught protocol, or of the need for it. This process connected the formal and informal or hidden curricula. To maximise learning through reflective writing, students should be encouraged to write in detail about a recent observed encounter, analyse it according to the protocol, address different participants

  4. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  5. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. Software life cycle management standards real-world solutions and scenarios for savings

    CERN Document Server

    Wright, David

    2011-01-01

    Software Life Cycle Management Standards will help you apply ISO/IEC 19770 to your business and enjoy the rewards it offers. David Wright calls on his vast experience to explain how the Standard applies to the whole of the software life cycle, not just the software asset management aspects. His informative guide gives up-to-date information using practical examples, clear diagrams and entertaining anecdotes.

  8. Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc Scenario with Observations of FR II Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek, E-mail: krusinek@camk.edu.pl [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland)

    2017-10-12

    The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R){sup 2} dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

  9. Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

    Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

  10. A low energy dynamical SUSY breaking scenario motivated from superstring derived unification

    CERN Document Server

    Faraggi, Alon E.

    1996-01-01

    Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in gauge mediated dynamical supersymmetry breaking scenarios. I investigate how low energy dynamical SUSY breaking may arise from superstring models. In a three generation string derived model I propose that the unbroken hidden non--Abelian gauge group at the string scale is SU(3)_H with matter multiplets. Due to the small gauge content of the hidden gauge group the supersymmetry breaking scale may be consistent with the dynamical SUSY breaking scenarios. The messenger states are obtained in the superstring model from sectors which arise due to the ``Wilson--line'' breaking of the unifying non--Abelian gauge symmetry. An important property of the string motivated messenger states is the absence of superpotential terms with the Standard Model states. The stringy symmetries therefore forbid the flavor changing processes which may arise due to couplings between the messenger sector states and the Standard Model states. Motivated from the problem of string gauge co...

  11. MSSM Higgs boson searches at the LHC. Benchmark scenarios after the discovery of a Higgs-like particle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carena, M. [Fermilab, Batavia, IL (United States). Theoretical Physics Dept.; Chicago Univ., IL (United States). Enrico Fermi Inst.; Chicago Univ., IL (United States). Kavli Inst. for Cosmological Physics; Heinemeyer, S. [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Staal, O. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physics; Wagner, C.E.M. [Chicago Univ., IL (United States). Enrico Fermi Inst.; Chicago Univ., IL (United States). Kavli Inst. for Cosmological Physics; Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States). HEP Division; Weiglein, G. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low- energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known m{sup max}{sub h} scenario, and a modified scenario (m{sup mod}{sub h}), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the M{sub A}-tan {beta} plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h{yields}{gamma}{gamma} at large tan {beta}. We also suggest a {tau}-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the {mu} parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H{yields}{gamma}{gamma}. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-M{sub H} scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV.

  12. Chemometrics: A new scenario in herbal drug standardization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Bansal

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Chromatography and spectroscopy techniques are the most commonly used methods in standardization of herbal medicines but the herbal system is not easy to analyze because of their complexity of chemical composition. Many cutting-edge analytical technologies have been introduced to evaluate the quality of medicinal plants and significant amount of measurement data has been produced. Chemometric techniques provide a good opportunity for mining more useful chemical information from the original data. Then, the application of chemometrics in the field of medicinal plants is spontaneous and necessary. Comprehensive methods and hyphenated techniques associated with chemometrics used for extracting useful information and supplying various methods of data processing are now more and more widely used in medicinal plants, among which chemometrics resolution methods and principal component analysis (PCA are most commonly used techniques. This review focuses on the recent various important analytical techniques, important chemometrics tools and interpretation of results by PCA, and applications of chemometrics in quality evaluation of medicinal plants in the authenticity, efficacy and consistency. Key words: Chemometrics, HELP, Herbal drugs, PCA, OPA

  13. Japanese FR Deployment Scenario Study after the Fukushima Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Ohtaki, Akira; Mukaida, Kyoko; Abe, Tomoyuki

    2013-01-01

    Conclusion: • The results revealed a need for the implementation of reprocessing and development of FR from the view point of reducing waste, etc. in the medium to long term. • JAEA’s contribution to international cooperation and standardization focusing on the enhancement of safety and reduction of the radioactive waste burden will be increasingly important in current situation. • JAEA intend to continue to build and propose FR deployment scenarios and identify their characteristics

  14. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  15. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  16. Constraining axion dark matter with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, Kfir; D' Agnolo, Raffaele Tito [Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Lisanti, Mariangela; Safdi, Benjamin R. [Department of Physics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2014-10-07

    We show that Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) significantly constrains axion-like dark matter. The axion acts like an oscillating QCD θ angle that redshifts in the early Universe, increasing the neutron–proton mass difference at neutron freeze-out. An axion-like particle that couples too strongly to QCD results in the underproduction of {sup 4}He during BBN and is thus excluded. The BBN bound overlaps with much of the parameter space that would be covered by proposed searches for a time-varying neutron EDM. The QCD axion does not couple strongly enough to affect BBN.

  17. Constraining axion dark matter with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kfir Blum

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We show that Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN significantly constrains axion-like dark matter. The axion acts like an oscillating QCD θ angle that redshifts in the early Universe, increasing the neutron–proton mass difference at neutron freeze-out. An axion-like particle that couples too strongly to QCD results in the underproduction of He4 during BBN and is thus excluded. The BBN bound overlaps with much of the parameter space that would be covered by proposed searches for a time-varying neutron EDM. The QCD axion does not couple strongly enough to affect BBN.

  18. Constraining nuclear data via cosmological observations: Neutrino energy transport and big bang nucleosynthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paris Mark

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a new computational capability that moves toward a self-consistent calculation of neutrino transport and nuclear reactions for big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN. Such a self-consistent approach is needed to be able to extract detailed information about nuclear reactions and physics beyond the standard model from precision cosmological observations of primordial nuclides and the cosmic microwave background radiation. We calculate the evolution of the early universe through the epochs of weak decoupling, weak freeze-out and big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN by simultaneously coupling a full strong, electromagnetic, and weak nuclear reaction network with a multi-energy group Boltzmann neutrino energy transport scheme. The modular structure of our approach allows the dissection of the relative contributions of each process responsible for evolving the dynamics of the early universe. Such an approach allows a detailed account of the evolution of the active neutrino energy distribution functions alongside and self-consistently with the nuclear reactions and entropy/heat generation and 'ow between the neutrino and photon/electron/positron/baryon plasma components. Our calculations reveal nonlinear feedback in the time evolution of neutrino distribution functions and plasma thermodynamic conditions. We discuss the time development of neutrino spectral distortions and concomitant entropy production and extraction from the plasma. These e↑ects result in changes in the computed values of the BBN deuterium and helium-4 yields that are on the order of a half-percent relative to a baseline standard BBN calculation with no neutrino transport. This is an order of magnitude larger e↑ect than in previous estimates. For particular implementations of quantum corrections in plasma thermodynamics, our calculations show a 0.4% increase in deuterium and a 0.6% decrease in 4He over our baseline. The magnitude of these changes are on the order of uncertainties

  19. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  20. An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbadebo Oladosu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

  1. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  2. Loophole to the universal photon spectrum in electromagnetic cascades and application to the cosmological lithium problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Vivian; Serpico, Pasquale Dario

    2015-03-06

    The standard theory of electromagnetic cascades onto a photon background predicts a quasiuniversal shape for the resulting nonthermal photon spectrum. This has been applied to very disparate fields, including nonthermal big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). However, once the energy of the injected photons falls below the pair-production threshold the spectral shape is much harder, a fact that has been overlooked in past literature. This loophole may have important phenomenological consequences, since it generically alters the BBN bounds on nonthermal relics; for instance, it allows us to reopen the possibility of purely electromagnetic solutions to the so-called "cosmological lithium problem," which were thought to be excluded by other cosmological constraints. We show this with a proof-of-principle example and a simple particle physics model, compared with previous literature.

  3. Big-Bang nucleosynthesis and lithium abundance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Vinay; Lahiri, Joydev; Bhowmick, Debasis; Basu, D.N.

    2017-01-01

    The predictions of the standard big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) theory depend on the astrophysical nuclear reaction rates and on additional three parameters, the number of flavours of light neutrinos, the neutron lifetime and the baryon-to-photon ratio in the uni- verse. The effect of the modification of thirty-five reaction rates on light element abundance yields in BBN was investigated earlier by us. In the present work we have replaced the neutron lifetime, baryon-to-photon ratio by the most recent values and further modified 3 He( 4 He,γ) 7 Be reaction rate which is used directly for estimating the formation of 7 Li as a result of β + decay by the most recent equation. We find that these modifications reduce the calculated abundance of 7 Li by ∼ 12%

  4. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  5. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  6. Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mkrtchyan, L.; Podofillini, L.; Dang, V.N.

    2015-01-01

    The use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) in risk analysis (and in particular Human Reliability Analysis, HRA) is fostered by a number of features, attractive in fields with shortage of data and consequent reliance on subjective judgments: the intuitive graphical representation, the possibility of combining diverse sources of information, the use the probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainties. In HRA, BBN applications are steadily increasing, each emphasizing a different BBN feature or a different HRA aspect to improve. This paper aims at a critical review of these features as well as at suggesting research needs. Five groups of BBN applications are analysed: modelling of organizational factors, analysis of the relationships among failure influencing factors, BBN-based extensions of existing HRA methods, dependency assessment among human failure events, assessment of situation awareness. Further, the paper analyses the process for building BBNs and in particular how expert judgment is used in the assessment of the BBN conditional probability distributions. The gaps identified in the review suggest the need for establishing more systematic frameworks to integrate the different sources of information relevant for HRA (cognitive models, empirical data, and expert judgment) and to investigate algorithms to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment. - Highlights: • We analyze BBN uses for HRA applications; but some conclusions can be generalized. • Special review focus on BBN building approaches, key for model acceptance. • Gaps relate to the transparency of the BBN building and quantification phases. • Need for more systematic framework to integrate different sources of information. • Need of ways to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment

  7. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  8. Synthesis and characterization of Bombesin-superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles as a targeted contrast agent for imaging of breast cancer using MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafari, Atefeh; Shayesteh, Saber Farjami; Salouti, Mojtaba; Heidari, Zahra; Rajabi, Ahmad Bitarafan; Boustani, Komail; Nahardani, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The targeted delivery of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) as a contrast agent may facilitate their accumulation in cancer cells and enhance the sensitivity of MR imaging. In this study, SPIONs coated with dextran (DSPIONs) were conjugated with bombesin (BBN) to produce a targeting contrast agent for detection of breast cancer using MRI. X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and vibrating sample magnetometer analyses indicated the formation of dextran-coated superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles with an average size of 6.0 ± 0.5 nm. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy confirmed the conjugation of the BBN with the DSPIONs. A stability study proved the high optical stability of DSPION–BBN in human blood serum. DSPION–BBN biocompatibility was confirmed by cytotoxicity evaluation. A binding study showed the targeting ability of DSPION–BBN to bind to T47D breast cancer cells overexpressing gastrin-releasing peptide (GRP) receptors. T 2 -weighted and T 2 *-weighted color map MR images were acquired. The MRI study indicated that the DSPION–BBN possessed good diagnostic ability as a GRP-specific contrast agent, with appropriate signal reduction in T 2 *-weighted color map MR images in mice with breast tumors. (paper)

  9. Experimentally testing the standard cosmological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schramm, D.N. (Chicago Univ., IL (USA) Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL (USA))

    1990-11-01

    The standard model of cosmology, the big bang, is now being tested and confirmed to remarkable accuracy. Recent high precision measurements relate to the microwave background; and big bang nucleosynthesis. This paper focuses on the latter since that relates more directly to high energy experiments. In particular, the recent LEP (and SLC) results on the number of neutrinos are discussed as a positive laboratory test of the standard cosmology scenario. Discussion is presented on the improved light element observational data as well as the improved neutron lifetime data. alternate nucleosynthesis scenarios of decaying matter or of quark-hadron induced inhomogeneities are discussed. It is shown that when these scenarios are made to fit the observed abundances accurately, the resulting conclusions on the baryonic density relative to the critical density, {Omega}{sub b}, remain approximately the same as in the standard homogeneous case, thus, adding to the robustness of the standard model conclusion that {Omega}{sub b} {approximately} 0.06. This latter point is the deriving force behind the need for non-baryonic dark matter (assuming {Omega}{sub total} = 1) and the need for dark baryonic matter, since {Omega}{sub visible} < {Omega}{sub b}. Recent accelerator constraints on non-baryonic matter are discussed, showing that any massive cold dark matter candidate must now have a mass M{sub x} {approx gt} 20 GeV and an interaction weaker than the Z{sup 0} coupling to a neutrino. It is also noted that recent hints regarding the solar neutrino experiments coupled with the see-saw model for {nu}-masses may imply that the {nu}{sub {tau}} is a good hot dark matter candidate. 73 refs., 5 figs.

  10. Experimentally testing the standard cosmological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schramm, D.N.

    1990-11-01

    The standard model of cosmology, the big bang, is now being tested and confirmed to remarkable accuracy. Recent high precision measurements relate to the microwave background; and big bang nucleosynthesis. This paper focuses on the latter since that relates more directly to high energy experiments. In particular, the recent LEP (and SLC) results on the number of neutrinos are discussed as a positive laboratory test of the standard cosmology scenario. Discussion is presented on the improved light element observational data as well as the improved neutron lifetime data. alternate nucleosynthesis scenarios of decaying matter or of quark-hadron induced inhomogeneities are discussed. It is shown that when these scenarios are made to fit the observed abundances accurately, the resulting conclusions on the baryonic density relative to the critical density, Ω b , remain approximately the same as in the standard homogeneous case, thus, adding to the robustness of the standard model conclusion that Ω b ∼ 0.06. This latter point is the deriving force behind the need for non-baryonic dark matter (assuming Ω total = 1) and the need for dark baryonic matter, since Ω visible b . Recent accelerator constraints on non-baryonic matter are discussed, showing that any massive cold dark matter candidate must now have a mass M x approx-gt 20 GeV and an interaction weaker than the Z 0 coupling to a neutrino. It is also noted that recent hints regarding the solar neutrino experiments coupled with the see-saw model for ν-masses may imply that the ν τ is a good hot dark matter candidate. 73 refs., 5 figs

  11. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  12. Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

  13. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  14. The Performance of Standardized Patients in Portraying Clinical Scenarios in Speech-Language Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Anne E.; Davidson, Bronwyn J.; Theodoros, Deborah G.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Standardized patients (SPs) are frequently included in the clinical preparation of students in the health sciences. An acknowledged benefit of using SPs is the opportunity to provide a standardized method by which students can demonstrate and develop their competency. Relatively little is known, however, about the capacity of SPs to…

  15. Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

    1988-01-01

    In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

  16. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  17. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  18. Search for non-standard SUSY signatures in CMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teyssier, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    New studies of the CMS collaboration are presented on the sensitivity to searches for non-standard signatures of particular SUSY scenarios. These signatures include non-pointing photons as well as pairs of prompt photons as expected GMSB SUSY models, as well as heavy stable charged particles produced in split supersymmetry models, long lived staus from GMSB SUSY and long lived stops in other SUSY scenarios. Detailed detector simulation is used for the study, and all relevant Standard Model background and detector effects that can mimic these special signatures are included. It is shown that with already with less than 100 pb -1 the CMS sensitivity will probe an interesting as yet by data unexplored parameter range of these models.

  19. Taming creative accounting via international financial reporting standards: The Nigerian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godsday Edesiri Okoro

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Creative accounting has remained a contentious issue, raising series of arguments in the accounting literature. These arguments are premised on twofold: positive creative accounting (ethical and negative creative accounting (unethical. Positive creative accounting is grounded on ‘fair’ accounting practices while negative creative accounting is built on ‘inappropriate’ accounting practices that may be mendacious to users of accounting numbers. Creative accounting is a way of ethically assisting firms out of the compass of crashing out of business but rather it has been seen as an instrument of destruction. However, this paper examined international financial reporting standards (IFRSs as a way of taming creative accounting as well as factors that trigger unethical accounting practices in Nigeria. The paper utilized structured questionnaires administered to 120 professionals (auditors, investors, stockbrokers. The Pearson Product Moment Correlation statistical tool was used in analyzing the field data. Based on the analysis, we found that IFRSs can be used to tame creative accounting. This implies that IFRSs moderate excessive unethical accounting practices. We found that one of the most significant factors triggering negative creative accounting is ‘conflict of interest’. On the basis of the findings, we recommended that ethical standards by the accounting profession should be properly aligned to suit the present business environment and sustained so as to checkmate excessive use of creative accounting. Also, IFRSs should be fully implemented by all corporate firms as well as more ethical standards that may guide management on creative accounting should be made available by regulatory framework of accounting so as to guide its use without it being detrimental to stakeholders.

  20. Measurements of the neutron-induced reactions on 7Be with CRIB by the Trojan Horse method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayakawa, S.; Abe, K.; Beliuskina, O.; Cha, S. M.; Chae, K. Y.; Cherubini, S.; Figuera, P.; Ge, Z.; Gulino, M.; Hu, J.; Inoue, A.; Iwasa, N.; Kahl, D.; Kim, A.; Kim, D. H.; Kiss, G.; Kubono, S.; La Cognata, M.; La Commara, M.; Lamia, L.; Lattuada, M.; Lee, E. J.; Moon, J. Y.; Palmerini, S.; Parascandolo, C.; Park, S. Y.; Pierroutsakou, D.; Pizzone, R. G.; Rapisarda, G. G.; Romano, S.; Shimizu, H.; Spitaleri, C.; Tang, X. D.; Trippella, O.; Tumino, A.; , P., Vi; Yamaguchi, H.; Yang, L.; Zhang, N. T.

    2018-04-01

    The cosmological 7Li problem has been one of the big issues left in the standard Big-Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) model. In order to determine the radiogenic 7Li abundance by the BBN, it is important to know the production and the destruction rate of 7Be rather than 7Li itself. We performed indirect measurements of the relevant neutron-induced reactions 7Be(n, p)7Li and 7Be(n, α)4He simultaneously by the Trojan Horse Method (THM) via the three-body reactions 7Be(d,7Lip)1H and 7Be(d, αα)1H. A 7Be radioactive-isotope (RI) beam at 3.16 MeV/u was produced at Center-for-Nuclear-Study RI Beam (CRIB) separator. The Q-value spectra shows the evidence of the three-body channels of interest. We confirmed that the THM was applicable to the present measurements by the momentum distributions of the spectator proton. Preliminary excitation functions are roughly consistent with the previous studies, moreover providing new data in the BBN energy range, and suggesting that new information about the 7Be(n, p1)7Li* contribution may be obtained by carrying out a further data analysis.

  1. Persistent Tensions in Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and Windows on New Physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tytler, David

    2009-01-01

    Now that we know the baryon to photon ratio to 5% from the cosmic microwave background, Big Bang Nucleosynthesis using standard physics predicts the abundances of five light nuclei with no free parameters. The Deuterium to Hydrogen ratio measured towards quasars agrees with the prediction to within 10%, but there has been tension verging on disagreement between the estimates of the primordial abundances of 4 He and especially 7 Li since 1996. While some recent 4 He measurements agree, the large majority of measurements over the last 30 years have been smaller than the predictions. For 7 Li, the measurements are sufficiently accurate to show that the 7 Li/H in old stars in the halo of our Galaxy is a factor of 3-4 below the predicted ratio. Perhaps stars with a variety of masses have destroyed the same amount of 7 Li, or we already have evidence for new physics. Improved measurements of the primordial abundances could lead to a detection of a wide variety of new physics because BBN is sensitive to all four forces. Examples include new particles that were relativistic during BBN, decaying particles that change the abundances after BBN or a large net lepton number for the universe that changed the neutron to proton ratio and hence the abundances.

  2. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  3. Big bang nucleosynthesis: The standard model and alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schramm, D.N.

    1991-01-01

    Big bang nucleosynthesis provides (with the microwave background radiation) one of the two quantitative experimental tests of the big bang cosmological model. This paper reviews the standard homogeneous-isotropic calculation and shows how it fits the light element abundances ranging from 4 He at 24% by mass through 2 H and 3 He at parts in 10 5 down to 7 Li at parts in 10 10 . Furthermore, the recent LEP (and SLC) results on the number of neutrinos are discussed as a positive laboratory test of the standard scenario. Discussion is presented on the improved observational data as well as the improved neutron lifetime data. Alternate scenarios of decaying matter or of quark-hadron induced inhomogeneities are discussed. It is shown that when these scenarios are made to fit the observed abundances accurately, the resulting conclusions on the baryonic density relative to the critical density, Ω b , remain approximately the same as in the standard homogeneous case, thus, adding to the robustness of the conclusion that Ω b ≅0.06. This latter point is the driving force behind the need for non-baryonic dark matter (assuming Ω total =1) and the need for dark baryonic matter, since Ω visible b . (orig.)

  4. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  5. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  6. Gauge and moduli hierarchy in a multiply warped braneworld scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Ashmita; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2013-01-01

    Discovery of Higgs-like boson near the mass scale ∼126 Gev generates renewed interest to the gauge hierarchy problem in the standard model related to the stabilisation of the Higgs mass within Tev scale without any unnatural fine tuning. One of the successful attempts to resolve this problem has been the Randall–Sundrum warped geometry model. Subsequently this 5-dimensional model was extended to a doubly warped 6-dimensional (or higher) model which can offer a geometric explanation of the fermion mass hierarchy in the standard model of elementary particles (D. Choudhury and S. SenGupta, 2007 [1]). In an attempt to address the dark energy issue, we in this work extend such 6-dimensional warped braneworld model to include non-flat 3-branes at the orbifold fixed points such that a small but non-vanishing brane cosmological constant is induced in our observable brane. We show that the requirements of a Planck to Tev scale warping along with a vanishingly small but non-zero cosmological constant on the visible brane with non-hierarchical moduli, each with scale close to Planck length, lead to a scenario where the 3-branes can have energy scales either close to Tev or close to Planck scale. Such a scenario can address both the gauge hierarchy as well as fermion mass hierarchy problem in standard model without introducing hierarchical scales between the two moduli. Thus simultaneous resolutions to the gauge hierarchy problem, fermion mass hierarchy problem and non-hierarchical moduli problem are closely linked with the near flatness condition of our universe.

  7. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  8. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  9. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  10. Workshop on CP Studies and Non-Standard Higgs Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Accomando, E.; Akhmetzyanova, E.; Albert, J.; Alves, A.; Amapane, N.; Aoki, M.; Azuelos, G.; Baffioni, S.; Ballestrero, A.; Barger, V.; Bartl, A.; Bechtle, P.; Blanger, G.; Belhouari, A.; Bellan, R.; Belyaev, A.; Benes, Petr; Benslama, K.; Bernreuther, W.; Besanon, M.; Bevilacqua, G.; Beyer, M.; Bluj, M.; Bolognesi, S.; Boonekamp, M.; Borzumati, Francesca; Boudjema, F.; Brandenburg, A.; Brauner, Tomas; Buszello, C.P.; Butterworth, J.M.; Carena, Marcela; Cavalli, D.; Cerminara, G.; Choi, S.Y.; Clerbaux, B.; Collard, C.; Conley, John A.; Deandrea, A.; De Curtis, S.; Dermisek, R.; De Roeck, A.; Dewhirst, G.; Diaz, M.A.; Diaz-Cruz, J.L.; Dietrich, D.D.; Dolgopolov, M.; Dominici, D.; Dubinin, M.; Eboli, O.; Ellis, John R.; Evans, N.; Fano, L.; Ferland, J.; Ferrag, S.; Fitzgerald, S.P.; Fraas, H.; Franke, F.; Gennai, S.; Ginzburg, I.F.; Godbole, R.M.; Gregoire, T.; Grenier, Gerald Jean; Grojean, C.; Gudnason, S.B.; Gunion, J.F.; Haber, H.E.; Hahn, T.; Han, T.; Hankele, V.; Hays, Christopher Paul; Heinemeyer, S.; Hesselbach, S.; Hewett, J.L.; Hidaka, K.; Hirsch, M.; Hollik, W.; Hooper, D.; Hosek, J.; Hubisz, J.; Hugonie, C.; Kalinowski, J.; Kanemura, S.; Kashkan, V.; Kernreiter, T.; Khater, W.; Khoze, V.A.; Kilian, W.; King, S.F.; Kittel, O.; Klamke, G.; Kneur, J.L.; Kouvaris, C.; Kraml, S.; Krawczyk, M.; Krstonoic, P.; Kyriakis, A.; Langacker, P.; Le, M.P.; Lee, H.-S.; Lee, J.S.; Lemaire, M.C.; Liao, Y.; Lillie, B.; Litvine, Vladimir A.; Logan, H.E.; McElrath, Bob; Mahmoud, T.; Maina, E.; Mariotti, C.; Marquard, P.; Martin, A.D.; Mazumdar, K.; Miller, D.J.; Min, P.; Monig, Klaus; Moortgat-Pick, G.; Moretti, S.; Muhlleitner, M.M.; Munir, S.; Nevzorov, R.; Newman, H.; Niezurawski, P.; Nikitenko, A.; Noriega-Papaqui, R.; Okada, Y.; Osland, P.; Pilaftsis, A.; Porod, W.; Przysiezniak, H.; Pukhov, A.; Rainwater, D.; Raspereza, A.; Reuter, J.; Riemann, S.; Rindani, S.; Rizzo, T.G.; Ros, E.; Rosado, A.; Rousseau, D.; Roy, D.P.; Ryskin, M.G.; Rzehak, H.; Sannino, F.; Schmidt, E.; Schrder, H.; Schumacher, M.; Semenov, A.; Senaha, E.; Shaughnessy, G.; Singh, R.K.; Terning, J.; Vacavant, L.; Velasco, M.; Villanova del Moral, Albert; von der Pahlen, F.; Weiglein, G.; Williams, J.; Williams, K.E.; Zarnecki, A.F.; Zeppenfeld, D.; Zerwas, D.; Zerwas, P.M.; Zerwekh, A.R.; Ziethe, J.; 2nd Workshop on CP Studies and Non-standard Higgs Physics; 3rd Workshop on CP Studies and Non-standard Higgs Physics; 4th Workshop on CP Studies and Non-standard Higgs Physics; CPNSH; Workshop on CP Studies and Non-standard Higgs Physics; CP Studies and Non-Standard Higgs Physics

    2006-01-01

    There are many possibilities for new physics beyond the Standard Model that feature non-standard Higgs sectors. These may introduce new sources of CP violation, and there may be mixing between multiple Higgs bosons or other new scalar bosons. Alternatively, the Higgs may be a composite state, or there may even be no Higgs at all. These non-standard Higgs scenarios have important implications for collider physics as well as for cosmology, and understanding their phenomenology is essential for a full comprehension of electroweak symmetry breaking. This report discusses the most relevant theories which go beyond the Standard Model and its minimal, CP-conserving supersymmetric extension: two-Higgs-doublet models and minimal supersymmetric models with CP violation, supersymmetric models with an extra singlet, models with extra gauge groups or Higgs triplets, Little Higgs models, models in extra dimensions, and models with technicolour or other new strong dynamics. For each of these scenarios, this report presents ...

  11. CP violation and electroweak baryogenesis in the Standard Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauner Tomáš

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the major unresolved problems in current physics is understanding the origin of the observed asymmetry between matter and antimatter in the Universe. It has become a common lore to claim that the Standard Model of particle physics cannot produce sufficient asymmetry to explain the observation. Our results suggest that this conclusion can be alleviated in the so-called cold electroweak baryogenesis scenario. On the Standard Model side, we continue the program initiated by Smit eight years ago; one derives the effective CP-violating action for the Standard Model bosons and uses the resulting effective theory in numerical simulations. We address a disagreement between two previous computations performed effectively at zero temperature, and demonstrate that it is very important to include temperature effects properly. Our conclusion is that the cold electroweak baryogenesis scenario within the Standard Model is tightly constrained, yet producing enough baryon asymmetry using just known physics still seems possible.

  12. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  13. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  14. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  15. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  16. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  17. Gravitino dark matter in split supersymmetry with bilinear R-parity violation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cottin, Giovanna [University of Cambridge, Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Diaz, Marco A. [Universidad Catolica de Chile, Instituto de Fisica, Santiago (Chile); Guzman, Maria Jose [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Panes, Boris [Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Fisica, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2014-11-15

    In Split-SUSY with BRpV we show that the Gravitino DM solution is consistent with experimental evidence as regards its relic density and life time. We arrive at this conclusion by performing a complete numerical and algebraic study of the parameter space, including constraints from the recently determined Higgs mass, updated neutrino physics, and BBN constraints on NLSP decays. The Higgs mass requires a relatively low Split-SUSY mass scale, which is naturally smaller than usual values for reheating temperature, allowing the use of the standard expression for the relic density. We include restrictions from neutrino physics with three generations, and we notice that the gravitino decay width depends on the atmospheric neutrino mass scale. We calculate the neutralino decay rate and find it consistent with BBN. We mention some implications on indirect DM searches. (orig.)

  18. Open Standards in Practice: An OGC China Forum Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Peng; Zhang, Mingda; Taylor, Trevor; Xie, Jibo; Zhang, Hongping; Tong, Xiaochong; Yu, Jinsongdi; Huang, Juntao

    2016-11-01

    Open standards like OGC standards can be used to improve interoperability and support machine-to-machine interaction over the Web. In the Big Data era, standard-based data and processing services from various vendors could be combined to automate the extraction of information and knowledge from heterogeneous and large volumes of geospatial data. This paper introduces an ongoing OGC China forum initiative, which will demonstrate how OGC standards can benefit the interaction among multiple organizations in China. The ability to share data and processing functions across organizations using standard services could change traditional manual interactions in their business processes, and provide on-demand decision support results by on-line service integration. In the initiative, six organizations are involved in two “MashUp” scenarios on disaster management. One “MashUp” is to derive flood maps in the Poyang Lake, Jiangxi. And the other one is to generate turbidity maps on demand in the East Lake, Wuhan, China. The two scenarios engage different organizations from the Chinese community by integrating sensor observations, data, and processing services from them, and improve the automation of data analysis process using open standards.

  19. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  20. Comparative study of two different Bombesin derivates labeled with 111In and biodistribution in normal mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Ricardo S.; Alcarde, Lais F.; Correa, Beatriz L.; Massicano, Adriana V.F.; Couto, Renata M.; Mengatti, Jair; Araujo, Elaine B. de

    2013-01-01

    activity is an important factor to be considered for studies in animals and to determine the potential of the radiopharmaceutical for clinical application. In this study, a standard labeling condition was determined, using 10 μg of peptide, 18.5 MBq (0.5 mCi) of 111 InCl 3 for 15 minutes at 25°C for both peptides, and DTPA-Phe-Gly 5 -BBN (6-14 ) showed good results in biodistribution. (author)

  1. Comparative study of two different Bombesin derivates labeled with {sup 111}In and biodistribution in normal mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Ricardo S.; Alcarde, Lais F.; Correa, Beatriz L.; Massicano, Adriana V.F.; Couto, Renata M.; Mengatti, Jair; Araujo, Elaine B. de, E-mail: ricardooliveira@usp.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    peptides was 1.85 MBq/ μg. The maximum specific activity is an important factor to be considered for studies in animals and to determine the potential of the radiopharmaceutical for clinical application. In this study, a standard labeling condition was determined, using 10 μg of peptide, 18.5 MBq (0.5 mCi) of {sup 111}InCl{sub 3} for 15 minutes at 25°C for both peptides, and DTPA-Phe-Gly{sub 5}-BBN{sub (6-14}) showed good results in biodistribution. (author)

  2. Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2015-01-01

    One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly

  3. Study of Mobility Enhancements for RPL in Convergecast Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinpeng Wang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, mobility support has become an important requirement in various wireless sensor network (WSN applications. However, due to the strict resource constraints of power, memory, and processing resources in WSNs, routing protocols are mainly designed without considering mobility. Low-Power and Lossy Networks (LLNs are a special type of WSNs that tolerate data loss. The Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL is a routing protocol for LLNs that adapts IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6 and runs on top of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.15.4 standard. RPL supports multipoint-to-point traffic and point-to-multipoint traffic. In this paper we propose a mobility enhancement mechanism in order to improve data collection applications in highly mobile scenarios. The enhancement is based on signal strength monitoring and depth updating in order to improve the routing protocol performance in mobile scenarios. This enhancement helps routing protocols to cope better with topology changes and makes proactive decisions on updating next-hop neighbours. We integrated this mechanism into the RPL and compared it with other existing RPL mobility support enhancements. Results obtained through simulation using Cooja show that our work outperforms other existing RPL mobility supports on different performance metrics. Results also prove the efficiency of our proposal in highly mobile scenarios.

  4. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  5. Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, Van Thanh

    2016-01-01

    shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO_2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam's neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection. (author) [fr

  6. Commentary on "tissue-specific mutagenesis by N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine as the basis for urothelial cell carcinogenesis." He Z, Kosinska W, Zhao ZL, Wu XR, Guttenplan JB, Department of Basic Science, New York University Dental College, NY, USA.: Mutat Res 2012;742(1-2):92-5 [Epub 2011 Dec 4].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherr, Douglas S

    2014-02-01

    Bladder cancer is one of the few cancers that have been linked to carcinogens in the environment and tobacco smoke. Of the carcinogens tested in mouse chemical carcinogenesis models, N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl)nitrosamine (BBN) is one that reproducibly causes high-grade, invasive cancers in the urinary bladder, but not in any other tissues. However, the basis for such a high-level tissue-specificity has not been explored. Using mutagenesis in lacI (Big Blue™) mice, we show here that BBN is a potent mutagen and it causes high-level of mutagenesis specifically in the epithelial cells (urothelial) of the urinary bladder. After a 2-6-week treatment of 0.05% BBN in the drinking water, mutagenesis in urothelial cells of male and female mice was about two orders of magnitude greater than the spontaneous mutation background. In contrast, mutagenesis in smooth muscle cells of the urinary bladder was about five times lower than in urothelial tissue. No appreciable increase in mutagenesis was observed in kidney, ureter, liver or forestomach. In lacI (Big Blue™) rats, BBN mutagenesis was also elevated in urothelial cells, albeit not nearly as profoundly as in mice. This provides a potential explanation as to why rats are less prone than mice to the formation of aggressive form of bladder cancer induced by BBN. Our results suggest that the propensity to BBN-triggered mutagenesis of urothelial cells underlies its heightened susceptibility to this carcinogen and that mutagenesis induced by BBN represents a novel model for initiation of bladder carcinogenesis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Requirements for Semantic Educational Recommender Systems in Formal E-Learning Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Jesus G. Boticario; Olga C. Santos

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes how recommender systems can be applied to current e-learning systems to guide learners in personalized inclusive e-learning scenarios. Recommendations can be used to overcome current limitations of learning management systems in providing personalization and accessibility features. Recommenders can take advantage of standards-based solutions to provide inclusive support. To this end we have identified the need for developing semantic educational recommender systems, which ...

  8. Policy scenarios for climate protection VI. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien fuer den Klimaschutz VI. Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.; Busche, Julia; Doering, Ulrike [Oeko-Institut, Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2013-03-15

    The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030. Alongside energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, additional measures in industrial processes also bring about substantial contributions to emission reductions.

  9. Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

    1988-01-01

    In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

  10. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  11. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  12. Difficult Scenarios for NMSSM Higgs Discovery at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Ellwanger, U; Hugonie, C; Ellwanger, Ulrich; Gunion, John F.; Hugonie, Cyril

    2005-01-01

    We identify scenarios not ruled out by LEP data in which NMSSM Higgs detection at the LHC will be particularly challenging. We first review the `no-lose' theorem for Higgs discovery at the LHC that applies if Higgs bosons do not decay to other Higgs bosons - namely, with L=300 fb^-1, there is always one or more `standard' Higgs detection channel with at least a 5 sigma signal. However, we provide examples of no-Higgs-to-Higgs cases for which all the standard signals are no larger than 7 sigma implying that if the available L is smaller or the simulations performed by ATLAS and CMS turn out to be overly optimistic, all standard Higgs signals could fall below 5 sigma even in the no-Higgs-to-Higgs part of NMSSM parameter space. In the vast bulk of NMSSM parameter space, there will be Higgs-to-Higgs decays. We show that when such decays are present it is possible for all the standard detection channels to have very small significance. In most such cases, the only strongly produced Higgs boson is one with fairly S...

  13. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  14. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  15. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  16. Big-bang nucleosynthesis and the relic abundance of dark matter in a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jittoh, Toshifumi; Koike, Masafumi; Sato, Joe; Yamanaka, Masato; Kohri, Kazunori; Shimomura, Takashi

    2008-01-01

    A scenario of the big-bang nucleosynthesis is analyzed within the minimal supersymmetric standard model, which is consistent with a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario to explain the relic abundance of dark matter. We find that we can account for the possible discrepancy of the abundance of 7 Li between the observation and the prediction of the big-bang nucleosynthesis by taking the mass of the neutralino as 300 GeV and the mass difference between the stau and the neutralino as (100-120) MeV. We can therefore simultaneously explain the abundance of the dark matter and that of 7 Li by these values of parameters. The lifetime of staus in this scenario is predicted to be O(100-1000) sec.

  17. Primordial nucleosynthesis in the new cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyburt, R.H.

    2003-01-01

    Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies independently predict the universal baryon density. Comparing their predictions will provide a fundamental test on cosmology. Using BBN and the CMB together, we will be able to constrain particle physics, and predict the primordial, light element abundances. These future analyses hinge on new experimental and observational data. New experimental data on nuclear cross sections will help reduce theoretical uncertainties in BBN's predictions. New observations of light element abundances will further sharpen BBN's probe of the baryon density. Observations from the MAP and PLANCK satellites will measure the fluctuations in the CMB to unprecedented accuracy, allowing the precise determination of the baryon density. When combined, this data will present us with the opportunity to perform precision cosmology

  18. Big bang nucleosynthesis: The standard model and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm, David N.

    1991-01-01

    Big bang nucleosynthesis provides (with the microwave background radiation) one of the two quantitative experimental tests of the big bang cosmological model. This paper reviews the standard homogeneous-isotropic calculation and shows how it fits the light element abundances ranging from He-4 at 24% by mass through H-2 and He-3 at parts in 10(exp 5) down to Li-7 at parts in 10(exp 10). Furthermore, the recent large electron positron (LEP) (and the stanford linear collider (SLC)) results on the number of neutrinos are discussed as a positive laboratory test of the standard scenario. Discussion is presented on the improved observational data as well as the improved neutron lifetime data. Alternate scenarios of decaying matter or of quark-hadron induced inhomogeneities are discussed. It is shown that when these scenarios are made to fit the observed abundances accurately, the resulting conlusions on the baryonic density relative to the critical density, omega(sub b) remain approximately the same as in the standard homogeneous case, thus, adding to the robustness of the conclusion that omega(sub b) approximately equals 0.06. This latter point is the driving force behind the need for non-baryonic dark matter (assuming omega(sub total) = 1) and the need for dark baryonic matter, since omega(sub visible) is less than omega(sub b).

  19. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  20. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  1. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  2. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  3. Measuring variability of procedure progression in proceduralized scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Jung, Wondea

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The VPP measure was developed to quantify how differently operators follow the procedures. ► Sources that cause variability of ways to follow a given procedure were identified. ► The VPP values for the scenarios are positively related to the scenario performance time. ► The VPP measure is meaningful for explaining characteristics of several PSFs. -- Abstract: Various performance shaping factors (PSFs) have been presented to explain the contributors to unsafe acts in a human failure event or predict a human error probability of new human performance. However, because most of these parameters of an HRA depend on the subjective knowledge and experience of HRA analyzers, the results of an HRA insufficiently provide unbiased standards to explain human performance variations or compare collected data with other data from different analyzers. To secure the validity of the HRA results, we propose a quantitative measure, which represents the variability of procedure progression (VPP) in proceduralized scenarios. A VPP measure shows how differently the operators follow the steps of the procedures. This paper introduces the sources of the VPP measure and relevance to PSFs. The assessment method of the VPP measure is also proposed, and the application examples are shown with a comparison of the performance time. Although more empirical studies should be conducted to reveal the relationship between the VPP measure and other PSFs, it is believed that the VPP measure provides evidence to quantitatively evaluate human performance variations and to cross-culturally compare the collected data.

  4. Underground Study of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis in the Precision Era of Cosmology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavino Carlo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Big Bang Nucleosinthesis (BBN theory provides definite predictions for the abundance of light elements produced in the early universe, as far as the knowledge of the relevant nuclear processes of the BBN chain is accurate. At BBN energies (30 ≲ Ecm ≲ 300 MeV the cross section of many BBN processes is very low because of the Coulomb repulsion between the interacting nuclei. For this reason it is convenient to perform the measurements deep underground. Presently the world’s only facility operating underground is LUNA (Laboratory for Undergound Nuclear astrophysics at LNGS (“Laboratorio Nazionale del Gran Sasso”, Italy. In this presentation the BBN measurements of LUNA are briefly reviewed and discussed. It will be shown that the ongoing study of the D(p, γ3He reaction is of primary importance to derive the baryon density of universe Ωb with high accuracy. Moreover, this study allows to constrain the existence of the so called “dark radiation”, composed by undiscovered relativistic species permeating the universe, such as sterile neutrinos.

  5. Underground Study of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis in the Precision Era of Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustavino, Carlo

    2017-03-01

    Big Bang Nucleosinthesis (BBN) theory provides definite predictions for the abundance of light elements produced in the early universe, as far as the knowledge of the relevant nuclear processes of the BBN chain is accurate. At BBN energies (30 ≲ Ecm ≲ 300 MeV) the cross section of many BBN processes is very low because of the Coulomb repulsion between the interacting nuclei. For this reason it is convenient to perform the measurements deep underground. Presently the world's only facility operating underground is LUNA (Laboratory for Undergound Nuclear astrophysics) at LNGS ("Laboratorio Nazionale del Gran Sasso", Italy). In this presentation the BBN measurements of LUNA are briefly reviewed and discussed. It will be shown that the ongoing study of the D(p, γ)3He reaction is of primary importance to derive the baryon density of universe Ωb with high accuracy. Moreover, this study allows to constrain the existence of the so called "dark radiation", composed by undiscovered relativistic species permeating the universe, such as sterile neutrinos.

  6. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  7. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  8. Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

  9. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  10. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  11. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  12. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  13. Dark matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac gauginos

    CERN Document Server

    Goodsell, Mark D.; Müller, Tobias; Porod, Werner; Staub, Florian

    2015-01-01

    We perform the first analysis of Dark Matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac Gauginos. The model under investigation is the Constrained Minimal Dirac Gaugino Supersymmetric Standard model (CMDGSSM) where the Majorana mass terms of gauginos vanish. However, $R$-symmetry is broken in the Higgs sector by an explicit and/or effective $B_\\mu$-term. This causes a mass splitting between Dirac states in the fermion sector and the neutralinos, which provide the dark matter candidate, become pseudo-Dirac states. We discuss two scenarios: the universal case with all scalar masses unified at the GUT scale, and the case with non-universal Higgs soft-terms. We identify different regions in the parameter space which fullfil all constraints from the dark matter abundance, the limits from SUSY and direct dark matter searches and the Higgs mass. Most of these points can be tested with the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments.

  14. CP Studies and Non-Standard Higgs Physics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraml, S.; Accomando, E.; G. Akeroyd, A.

    2006-01-01

    There are many possibilities for new physics beyond the Standard Model that feature non-standard Higgs sectors. These may introduce new sources of CP violation, and there may be mixing between multiple Higgs bosons or other new scalar bosons. Alternatively, the Higgs may be a composite state......, or there may even be no Higgs at all. These non-standard Higgs scenarios have important implications for collider physics as well as for cosmology, and understanding their phenomenology is essential for a full comprehension of electroweak symmetry breaking. This report discusses the most relevant theories...

  15. Reconfigurable radio systems network architectures and standards

    CERN Document Server

    Iacobucci, Maria Stella

    2013-01-01

    This timely book provides a standards-based view of the development, evolution, techniques and potential future scenarios for the deployment of reconfigurable radio systems.  After an introduction to radiomobile and radio systems deployed in the access network, the book describes cognitive radio concepts and capabilities, which are the basis for reconfigurable radio systems.  The self-organizing network features introduced in 3GPP standards are discussed and IEEE 802.22, the first standard based on cognitive radio, is described. Then the ETSI reconfigurable radio systems functional ar

  16. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of California. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  17. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Arizona. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  18. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Georgia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Georgia. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  19. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Florida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Florida. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  20. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Arkansas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Arkansas. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  1. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Connecticut

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Connecticut. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  2. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Hawaii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Hawaii. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  3. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the District of Columbia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the District of Columbia. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  4. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Alaska. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  5. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Colorado. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  6. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Delaware

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Delaware. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  7. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Alabama

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Alabama. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  8. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Washington. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  9. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Kentucky

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Kentucky. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  10. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Vermont

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Vermont. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  11. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Wyoming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Wyoming. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  12. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Louisiana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Louisiana. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  13. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Maryland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Maryland. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  14. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Nevada. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  15. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Ohio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Ohio. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  16. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Nebraska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Nebraska. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  17. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Idaho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Idaho. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  18. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Iowa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Iowa. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  19. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Utah

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Utah. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  20. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Oklahoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Oklahoma. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  1. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Tennessee. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  2. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Mississippi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Mississippi. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  3. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Montana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Montana. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  4. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Maine. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  5. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Michigan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Michigan. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  6. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Indiana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Indiana. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  7. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Pennsylvania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Pennsylvania. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  8. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Texas. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  9. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Kansas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Kansas. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  10. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Massachusetts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Massachusetts. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  11. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Minnesota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Minnesota. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  12. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Illinois. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  13. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Virginia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Virginia. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  14. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Oregon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Oregon. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  15. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Missouri

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Missouri. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  16. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Wisconsin. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  17. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  18. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  19. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  20. Origin of ΔNeff as a result of an interaction between dark radiation and dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjaelde, Ole Eggers; Das, Subinoy; Moss, Adam

    2012-01-01

    Results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and recently from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) have indicated the possible existence of an extra radiation component in addition to the well known three neutrino species predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we explore the possibility of the apparent extra dark radiation being linked directly to the physics of cold dark matter (CDM). In particular, we consider a generic scenario where dark radiation, as a result of an interaction, is produced directly by a fraction of the dark matter density effectively decaying into dark radiation. At an early epoch when the dark matter density is negligible, as an obvious consequence, the density of dark radiation is also very small. As the Universe approaches matter radiation equality, the dark matter density starts to dominate thereby increasing the content of dark radiation and changing the expansion rate of the Universe. As this increase in dark radiation content happens naturally after Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), it can relax the possible tension with lower values of radiation degrees of freedom measured from light element abundances compared to that of the CMB. We numerically confront this scenario with WMAP+ACT and WMAP+SPT data and derive an upper limit on the allowed fraction of dark matter decaying into dark radiation

  1. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  2. Gastrin-releasing peptide receptor-targeted gadolinium oxide-based multifunctional nanoparticles for dual magnetic resonance/fluorescent molecular imaging of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui DT

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Danting Cui,1 Xiaodan Lu,1 Chenggong Yan,1 Xiang Liu,1 Meirong Hou,1 Qi Xia,2 Yikai Xu,1 Ruiyuan Liu2,3 1Department of Medical Imaging Center, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3School of Biomedical Engineering, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China Abstract: Bombesin (BBN, an analog of gastrin-releasing peptide (GRP, specifically binds to GRP receptors, which are overexpressed in human prostate cancer (PC. Here, we synthesized a BBN-modified gadolinium oxide (Gd2O3 nanoprobe containing fluorescein (Gd2O3-5(6-carboxyfluorescein [FI]-polyethylene glycol [PEG]-BBN for targeted magnetic resonance (MR/optical dual-modality imaging of PC. The Gd2O3-FI-PEG-BBN nanoparticles exhibited a relatively uniform particle size with an average diameter of 52.3 nm and spherical morphology as depicted by transmission electron microscopy. The longitudinal relaxivity (r1 of Gd2O3-FI-PEG-BBN (r1 =4.23 mM–1s–1 is comparable to that of clinically used Magnevist (Gd-DTPA. Fluorescence microscopy and in vitro cellular MRI demonstrated GRP receptor-specific and enhanced cellular uptake of the Gd2O3-FI-PEG-BBN in PC-3 tumor cells. Moreover, Gd2O3-FI-PEG-BBN showed more remarkable contrast enhancement than the corresponding nontargeted Gd2O3-FI-PEG according to in vivo MRI and fluorescent imaging. Tumor immunohistochemical analysis further demonstrated improved accumulation of the targeted nanoprobe in tumors. BBN-conjugated Gd2O3 may be a promising nanoplatform for simultaneous GRP receptor-targeted molecular cancer diagnosis and antitumor drug delivery in future clinical applications. Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, gadolinium oxide, bombesin, gastrin-releasing peptide receptor, molecular imaging

  3. Design of wind turbines for non-standard air density

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soraperra, Giusepe

    2005-01-01

    -standard density is intrinsically different, it is impossible to reach the standard rated power at the standard rated speed. Three scenarios are possible (i) to keep the standard rated speed of the turbine by changing the size of the electric generator; (ii) to change the rated speed of the turbine by adopting...... a different pitch angel setting; (iii) adoption of extendeders to the blades can also help in restraining the standard rated power at the standard rated speed for p less than pst. The power curves for the three turbine configurations, each in three different air density conformations, have been calculated...

  4. Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

    2014-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

  5. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  6. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  7. GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

    2010-05-01

    In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

  8. Conformal complex singlet extension of the Standard Model: scenario for dark matter and a second Higgs boson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhi-Wei; Steele, T. G.; Hanif, T.; Mann, R. B.

    2016-08-01

    We consider a conformal complex singlet extension of the Standard Model with a Higgs portal interaction. The global U(1) symmetry of the complex singlet can be either broken or unbroken and we study each scenario. In the unbroken case, the global U(1) symmetry protects the complex singlet from decaying, leading to an ideal cold dark matter candidate with approximately 100 GeV mass along with a significant proportion of thermal relic dark matter abundance. In the broken case, we have developed a renormalization-scale optimization technique to significantly narrow the parameter space and in some situations, provide unique predictions for all the model's couplings and masses. We have found there exists a second Higgs boson with a mass of approximately 550 GeV that mixes with the known 125 GeV Higgs with a large mixing angle sin θ ≈ 0.47 consistent with current experimental limits. The imaginary part of the complex singlet in the broken case could provide axion dark matter for a wide range of models. Upon including interactions of the complex scalar with an additional vector-like fermion, we explore the possibility of a diphoton excess in both the unbroken and the broken cases. In the unbroken case, the model can provide a natural explanation for diphoton excess if extra terms are introduced providing extra contributions to the singlet mass. In the broken case, we find a set of coupling solutions that yield a second Higgs boson of mass 720 GeV and an 830 GeV extra vector-like fermion F , which is able to address the 750 GeV LHC diphoton excess. We also provide criteria to determine the symmetry breaking pattern in both the Higgs and hidden sectors.

  9. Conformal complex singlet extension of the Standard Model: scenario for dark matter and a second Higgs boson

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhi-Wei; Steele, T.G. [Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Saskatchewan,116 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5E2 (Canada); Hanif, T. [Department of Theoretical Physics, University of Dhaka,Dhaka-1000 (Bangladesh); Mann, R.B. [Department of Physics, University of Waterloo,Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1 (Canada)

    2016-08-09

    We consider a conformal complex singlet extension of the Standard Model with a Higgs portal interaction. The global U(1) symmetry of the complex singlet can be either broken or unbroken and we study each scenario. In the unbroken case, the global U(1) symmetry protects the complex singlet from decaying, leading to an ideal cold dark matter candidate with approximately 100 GeV mass along with a significant proportion of thermal relic dark matter abundance. In the broken case, we have developed a renormalization-scale optimization technique to significantly narrow the parameter space and in some situations, provide unique predictions for all the model’s couplings and masses. We have found there exists a second Higgs boson with a mass of approximately 550 GeV that mixes with the known 125 GeV Higgs with a large mixing angle sin θ≈0.47 consistent with current experimental limits. The imaginary part of the complex singlet in the broken case could provide axion dark matter for a wide range of models. Upon including interactions of the complex scalar with an additional vector-like fermion, we explore the possibility of a diphoton excess in both the unbroken and the broken cases. In the unbroken case, the model can provide a natural explanation for diphoton excess if extra terms are introduced providing extra contributions to the singlet mass. In the broken case, we find a set of coupling solutions that yield a second Higgs boson of mass 720 GeV and an 830 GeV extra vector-like fermion F, which is able to address the 750 GeV LHC diphoton excess. We also provide criteria to determine the symmetry breaking pattern in both the Higgs and hidden sectors.

  10. Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-12-19

    In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al.'s method (BMC Med Res Methodol 5:13, 2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under several other interesting settings where the interquartile range is also available for the trials. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies for the three frequently encountered scenarios, respectively. For the first two scenarios, our method greatly improves existing methods and provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true sample standard deviation for normal data and a slightly biased estimate for skewed data. For the third scenario, our method still performs very well for both normal data and skewed data. Furthermore, we compare the estimators of the sample mean and standard deviation under all three scenarios and present some suggestions on which scenario is preferred in real-world applications. In this paper, we discuss different approximation methods in the estimation of the sample mean and standard deviation and propose some new estimation methods to improve the existing literature. We conclude our work with a summary table (an Excel spread sheet including all formulas) that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different

  11. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  12. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  13. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  14. Revisiting the gravitino dark matter and baryon asymmetry from Q-ball decay in gauge mediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasuya, Shinta, E-mail: kasuya@kanagawa-u.ac.jp [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Kanagawa University, Kanagawa 259-1293 (Japan); Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik, PO Box 103980, 69029 Heidelberg (Germany); Kawasaki, Masahiro [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, the University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan); Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), Todai Institutes for Advanced Study, the University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan); Yamada, Masaki [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, the University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan)

    2013-10-07

    We reconsider the Q-ball decay and reinvestigate the scenario that the amount of the baryons and the gravitino dark matter is naturally explained by the decay of the Q balls in the gauge-mediated SUSY breaking. We refine the decay rates into baryons, NLSPs, and gravitinos, and estimate their branching ratios based on the consideration of Pauli blocking. We obtain a smaller branching into gravitinos than the previous estimate, and the NLSPs are more produced by the Q-ball decay. However, the efficient annihilations of NLSPs occur afterward so that their abundance does not spoil the successful BBN and they only produce negligible amount of the gravitinos to the dark matter density by their decay. In this way, we find that the scenario with the direct production of the gravitino dark matter from the Q-ball decay works naturally.

  15. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  16. Securing energy efficiency as a high priority. Scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foran, T. [Unit for Social and Environmental Research USER, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, P.O. Box 144, Chiang Mai, 50200 (Thailand); Du Pont, P.T. [International Resources Group and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Bangkok (Thailand); Parinya, P. [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand); Phumaraphand, N. [Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand's energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5-6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand's residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand's total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006-2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand's voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.

  17. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  18. Physics beyond the standard model in the non-perturbative unification scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapetanakis, D.; Zoupanos, G.

    1990-01-01

    The non-perturbative unification scenario predicts reasonably well the low energy gauge couplings of the standard model. Agreement with the measured low energy couplings is obtained by assuming certain kind of physics beyond the standard model. A number of possibilities for physics beyond the standard model is examined. The best candidates so far are the standard model with eight fermionic families and a similar number of Higgs doublets, and the supersymmetric standard model with five families. (author)

  19. Big bang nucleosynthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, Brian D.; Olive, Keith A.

    2006-01-01

    We present an overview of the standard model of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), which describes the production of the light elements in the early universe. The theoretical prediction for the abundances of D, 3 He, 4 He, and 7 Li is discussed. We emphasize the role of key nuclear reactions and the methods by which experimental cross section uncertainties are propagated into uncertainties in the predicted abundances. The observational determination of the light nuclides is also discussed. Particular attention is given to the comparison between the predicted and observed abundances, which yields a measurement of the cosmic baryon content. The spectrum of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) now independently measures the baryon density to high precision; we show how the CMB data test BBN, and find that the CMB and the D and 4 He observations paint a consistent picture. This concordance stands as a major success of the hot big bang. On the other hand, 7 Li remains discrepant with the CMB-preferred baryon density; possible explanations are reviewed. Finally, moving beyond the standard model, primordial nucleosynthesis constraints on early universe and particle physics are also briefly discussed

  20. Big bang darkleosynthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordan Krnjaic

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In a popular class of models, dark matter comprises an asymmetric population of composite particles with short range interactions arising from a confined nonabelian gauge group. We show that coupling this sector to a well-motivated light mediator particle yields efficient darkleosynthesis, a dark-sector version of big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN, in generic regions of parameter space. Dark matter self-interaction bounds typically require the confinement scale to be above ΛQCD, which generically yields large (≫MeV/dark-nucleon binding energies. These bounds further suggest the mediator is relatively weakly coupled, so repulsive forces between dark-sector nuclei are much weaker than Coulomb repulsion between standard-model nuclei, which results in an exponential barrier-tunneling enhancement over standard BBN. Thus, darklei are easier to make and harder to break than visible species with comparable mass numbers. This process can efficiently yield a dominant population of states with masses significantly greater than the confinement scale and, in contrast to dark matter that is a fundamental particle, may allow the dominant form of dark matter to have high spin (S≫3/2, whose discovery would be smoking gun evidence for dark nuclei.

  1. Big bang darkleosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krnjaic, Gordan; Sigurdson, Kris

    2015-12-01

    In a popular class of models, dark matter comprises an asymmetric population of composite particles with short range interactions arising from a confined nonabelian gauge group. We show that coupling this sector to a well-motivated light mediator particle yields efficient darkleosynthesis, a dark-sector version of big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), in generic regions of parameter space. Dark matter self-interaction bounds typically require the confinement scale to be above ΛQCD, which generically yields large (≫MeV /dark-nucleon) binding energies. These bounds further suggest the mediator is relatively weakly coupled, so repulsive forces between dark-sector nuclei are much weaker than Coulomb repulsion between standard-model nuclei, which results in an exponential barrier-tunneling enhancement over standard BBN. Thus, darklei are easier to make and harder to break than visible species with comparable mass numbers. This process can efficiently yield a dominant population of states with masses significantly greater than the confinement scale and, in contrast to dark matter that is a fundamental particle, may allow the dominant form of dark matter to have high spin (S ≫ 3 / 2), whose discovery would be smoking gun evidence for dark nuclei.

  2. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  3. Code, standard and specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul Nassir Ibrahim; Azali Muhammad; Ab. Razak Hamzah; Abd. Aziz Mohamed; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail

    2008-01-01

    Radiography also same as the other technique, it need standard. This standard was used widely and method of used it also regular. With that, radiography testing only practical based on regulations as mentioned and documented. These regulation or guideline documented in code, standard and specifications. In Malaysia, level one and basic radiographer can do radiography work based on instruction give by level two or three radiographer. This instruction was produced based on guideline that mention in document. Level two must follow the specifications mentioned in standard when write the instruction. From this scenario, it makes clearly that this radiography work is a type of work that everything must follow the rule. For the code, the radiography follow the code of American Society for Mechanical Engineer (ASME) and the only code that have in Malaysia for this time is rule that published by Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) known as Practical code for radiation Protection in Industrial radiography. With the existence of this code, all the radiography must follow the rule or standard regulated automatically.

  4. Scenarios for wind power in Brazil, Argentina and Chile; Cenarios para a energia eolio eletrica no Brasil, Argentina e Chile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dedecca, Joao Gorestein; Nogueira, Larissa Goncalves; Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia], emails: jdedecca@fem.unicamp.br, larissa@fem.unicamp.br, januzzi@fem.unicamp.br; Gomes, Rodolfo Dourado [International Energy Initiative-Latin America (IEI-LA), Campinas, SP (Brazil)], email: rodolfo@iei-la.org

    2010-07-01

    The Chilean, Argentinean and Brazilian power matrixes presented in the last two decades a growth of the non-renewable energy sources share, especially fossil sources, mainly in installed capacity and in a lesser degree in energy production. Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council have elaborated a reference energy scenario together with a scenario analyzing the institution of ample measures for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Feed-in tariffs and auction or bidding mechanisms implemented in Brazil and Argentina and the renewable portfolio standard implemented in Chile allied with the wind industry state in these countries indicate that Chile and Argentina will fulfill the 2020 wind power installed capacity predicted in the reference scenarios, while Brazil will reach the energy revolution scenario prediction. Important energy policy changes are required if the Chile and Argentina energy revolution scenarios wind power installed capacity are to become a reality in 2020. (author)

  5. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  6. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  7. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  8. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  9. Estimation of light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad and climate co-benefits of improved emission standards implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Izhar Hussain; Zeeshan, Muhammad

    2016-02-01

    Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) hold a major share in Islamabad's vehicle fleet and their contribution towards air pollution has not been analyzed previously. Emissions for the base year (2014) and two optimistic 'what-if' scenarios were estimated by using the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model. Considering the recent implementation of Euro II as emission standard in Pakistan, scenario 1 assumed entire LDV fleet meeting at least Euro II standards while scenario 2 assumed all LDVs meeting Euro IV standards except motorcycles which would be meeting Euro III emission standards. Higher average age for all vehicles and lower share of Euro compliant vehicles was found in the base case. Low engine stress mode (lower speeds with frequent decelerations) was observed for all vehicles especially on arterials and residential roads. Highest overall emissions (59%) were observed on arterials, followed by residential roads (24%) and highways (17%) with higher emissions observed during morning (8-10 am) and evening (4-6 pm) rush hours. Composite emission factors were also calculated. Results reveal that 1094, 147, 11.1, 0.2 and 0.4 kt of CO2, CO, NOx, SO2 and PM10 respectively were emitted in 2014 by LDVs. Compared with the base year, scenario 1 showed a reduction of 9%, 69%, 73%, 13% and 31%, while scenario 2 exhibited a reduction of 5%, 92%, 90%, 92% and 81% for CO2, CO, NOx, SO2 and PM10 respectively. As compared to the base year, a 20 year CO2-equivalent Global Warming Potential (GWP) reduced by 55% and 64% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively, while a 100 year GWP reduced by 40% and 44% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Our results demonstrated significant co-benefits that could be achieved in emission reduction and air quality improvement in the city by vehicle technology implementation.

  10. A Study on Quantitative Assessment of Design Specification of Reactor Protection System Software Using Bayesian Belief Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Park, G. Y.; Kwon, K. C.

    2007-02-01

    This report propose a method that can produce quantitative reliability of safety-critical software for PSA by making use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). BBN has generally been used to model the uncertain system in many research fields. The proposed method was constructed by utilizing BBN that can combine the qualitative and the quantitative evidence relevant to the reliability of safety-critical software, and then can infer a conclusion in a formal and a quantitative way. A case study was also carried out with the proposed method to assess the quality of software design specification of safety-critical software that will be embedded in reactor protection system. The V and V results of the software were used as inputs for the BBN model. The calculation results of the BBN model showed that its conclusion is mostly equivalent to those of the V and V expert for a given input data set. The method and the results of the case study will be utilized in PSA of NPP. The method also can support the V and V expert's decision making process in controlling further V and V activities

  11. Natural NMSSM after LHC Run I and the Higgsino dominated dark matter scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Junjie; He, Yangle; Shang, Liangliang; Su, Wei; Zhang, Yang

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of the direct searches for SUSY at LHC Run I on the naturalness of the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM). For this end, we first scan the vast parameter space of the NMSSM to get the region where the fine tuning measures Δ Z and Δ h at the electroweak scale are less than about 50, then we implement by simulations the constraints of the direct searches on the parameter points in the region. Our results indicate that although the direct search experiments are effective in excluding the points, the parameter intervals for the region and also the minimum reaches of Δ Z and Δ h are scarcely changed by the constraints, which implies that the fine tuning of the NMSSM does not get worse after LHC Run I. Moreover, based on the results we propose a natural NMSSM scenario where the lightest neutralino χ̃ 1 0 as the dark matter (DM) candidate is Higgsino-dominated. In this scenario, Δ Z and Δ h may be as low as 2 without conflicting with any experimental constraints, and intriguingly χ̃ 1 0 can easily reach the measured DM relic density due to its significant Singlino component. We exhibit the features of the scenario which distinguish it from the other natural SUSY scenario, including the properties of its neutralino-chargino sector and scalar top quark sector. We emphasize that the scenario can be tested either through searching for 3l+E T miss signal at 14 TeV LHC or through future DM direct detection experiments.

  12. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  13. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  14. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  15. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  16. B physics beyond the Standard Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hewett, J.A.L.

    1997-12-01

    The ability of present and future experiments to test the Standard Model in the B meson sector is described. The authors examine the loop effects of new interactions in flavor changing neutral current B decays and in Z → b anti b, concentrating on supersymmetry and the left-right symmetric model as specific examples of new physics scenarios. The procedure for performing a global fit to the Wilson coefficients which describe b → s transitions is outlined, and the results of such a fit from Monte Carlo generated data is compared to the predictions of the two sample new physics scenarios. A fit to the Zb anti b couplings from present data is also given

  17. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

  18. Accidentally safe extensions of the Standard Model

    CERN Document Server

    Di Luzio, Luca; Kamenik, Jernej F.; Nardecchia, Marco

    2015-01-01

    We discuss a class of weak-scale extensions of the Standard Model which is completely invisible to low-energy indirect probes. The typical signature of this scenario is the existence of new charged and/or colored states which are stable on the scale of high-energy particle detectors.

  19. Well-defined triblock copolymers of polyethylene with polycaprolactone or polystyrene using a novel difunctional polyhomologation initiator

    KAUST Repository

    Hadjichristidis, Nikolaos; Alshumrani , Reem

    2017-01-01

    α,ω-Dihydroxy polyethylene was synthesized by polyhomologation of dimethylsulfoxonium methylide with 9-thexyl-9-BBN (9-BNN: 9-Borabicyclo[3.3.1]nonane), a novel difunctional initiator produced from 9-BBN and 2,3-dimethylbut-2-ene, with two active

  20. Least cost, utility scale abatement from Australia's NEM (National Electricity Market). Part 2: Scenarios and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brear, M.J.; Jeppesen, M.; Chattopadhyay, D.; Manzie, C.; Alpcan, T.; Dargaville, R.

    2016-01-01

    This paper is the second of a two part study that considers least cost, greenhouse gas abatement pathways for an electricity system. Part 1 of this study formulated a model for determining these abatement pathways, and applied this model to Australia's NEM (National Electricity Market) for a single reference scenario. Part 2 of this study applies this model to different scenarios and considers the policy implications. These include cases where nuclear power generation and CCS (carbon capture and storage) are implemented in Australia, which is presently not the case, as well as a more detailed examination of how an extended, RPS (renewable portfolio standard) might perform. The effect of future fuel costs and different discount rates are also examined. Several results from this study are thought to be significant. Most importantly, this study suggests that Australia already has utility scale technologies, renewable and non-renewable resources, an electricity market design and an abatement policy that permit continued progress towards deep greenhouse gas abatement in its electricity sector. In particular, a RPS (renewable portfolio standard) appears to be close to optimal as a greenhouse gas abatement policy for Australia's electricity sector for at least the next 10–15 years. - Highlights: • Considers scenarios and policy implications for Australia's NEM (National Electricity Market). • An extended form of RPS (renewable portfolio standard) appears near optimal until roughly 2030. • For up to 80% abatement, the inclusion of nuclear achieves only marginal benefit by 2050. • CCS (Carbon capture and storage) does not appear competitive with current cost estimates.

  1. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  2. Nuclear security standard: Argentina approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonet Duran, Stella M.; Rodriguez, Carlos E.; Menossi, Sergio A.; Serdeiro, Nelida H.

    2007-01-01

    Argentina has a comprehensive regulatory system designed to assure the security and safety of radioactive sources, which has been in place for more than fifty years. In 1989 the Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety branch of the National Atomic Energy Commission created the 'Council of Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials and Installations' (CAPFMIN). This Council published in 1992 a Physical Protection Standard based on a deep and careful analysis of INFCIRC 225/Rev.2 including topics like 'sabotage scenario'. Since then, the world's scenario has changed, and some concepts like 'design basis threat', 'detection, delay and response', 'performance approach and prescriptive approach', have been applied to the design of physical protection systems in facilities other than nuclear installations. In Argentina, radioactive sources are widely used in medical and industrial applications with more than 1,600 facilities controlled by the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (in spanish ARN). During 2005, measures like 'access control', 'timely detection of intruder', 'background checks', and 'security plan', were required by ARN for implementation in facilities with radioactive sources. To 'close the cycle' the next step is to produce a regulatory standard based on the operational experience acquired during 2005. ARN has developed a set of criteria for including them in a new standard on security of radioactive materials. Besides, a specific Regulatory Guide is being prepared to help licensees of facilities in design a security system and to fulfill the 'Design of Security System Questionnaire'. The present paper describes the proposed Standard on Security of Radioactive Sources and the draft of the Nuclear Security Regulatory Guidance, based on our regulatory experience and the latest international recommendations. (author)

  3. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  4. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  5. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  6. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  7. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  8. Probing nuclear rates with Planck and BICEP2

    CERN Document Server

    Di Valentino, Eleonora; Lesgourgues, Julien; Mangano, Gianpiero; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Miele, Gennaro; Pisanti, Ofelia

    2014-01-01

    Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) relates key cosmological parameters to the primordial abundance of light elements. In this paper, we point out that the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background anisotropies by the Planck satellite and by the BICEP2 experiment constrain these parameters with such a high level of accuracy that the primordial deuterium abundance can be inferred with remarkable precision. For a given cosmological model, one can obtain independent information on nuclear processes in the energy range relevant for BBN, which determine the eventual ^2H/H yield. In particular, assuming the standard cosmological model, we show that a combined analysis of Planck data and of recent deuterium abundance measurements in metal-poor damped Lyman-alpha systems provides independent information on the cross section of the radiative capture reaction d(p,\\gamma)^3He converting deuterium into helium. Interestingly, the result is higher than the values suggested by a fit of present experimental data in the B...

  9. New detectors to explore the lifetime frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, John Paul; Curtin, David; Lubatti, H. J.

    2017-04-01

    Long-lived particles (LLPs) are a common feature in many beyond the Standard Model theories, including supersymmetry, and are generically produced in exotic Higgs decays. Unfortunately, no existing or proposed search strategy will be able to observe the decay of non-hadronic electrically neutral LLPs with masses above ∼ GeV and lifetimes near the limit set by Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), cτ ≲107-108 m. We propose the MATHUSLA surface detector concept (MAssive Timing Hodoscope for Ultra Stable neutraL pArticles), which can be implemented with existing technology and in time for the high luminosity LHC upgrade to find such ultra-long-lived particles (ULLPs), whether produced in exotic Higgs decays or more general production modes. We also advocate a dedicated LLP detector at a future 100 TeV collider, where a modestly sized underground design can discover ULLPs with lifetimes at the BBN limit produced in sub-percent level exotic Higgs decays.

  10. Revisiting big-bang nucleosynthesis constraints on long-lived decaying particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawasaki, Masahiro; Kohri, Kazunori; Moroi, Takeo; Takaesu, Yoshitaro

    2018-01-01

    We study the effects of long-lived massive particles, which decayed during the big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) epoch, on the primordial abundance of light elements. Compared to previous studies, (i) the reaction rates of standard BBN reactions are updated, (ii) the most recent observational data on the light element abundance and cosmological parameters are used, (iii) the effects of the interconversion of energetic nucleons at the time of inelastic scattering with background nuclei are considered, and (iv) the effects of the hadronic shower induced by energetic high-energy antinucleons are included. We compare the theoretical predictions on the primordial abundance of light elements with the latest observational constraints, and we derive upper bounds on the relic abundance of the decaying particle as a function of its lifetime. We also apply our analysis to an unstable gravitino, the superpartner of a graviton in supersymmetric theories, and obtain constraints on the reheating temperature after inflation.

  11. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  12. The number density of a charged relic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, C.F. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States). Center for Theoretical Physics]|[California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Kavli Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Covi, L. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kraml, S. [CNRS/IN2P3, Grenoble (France). Lab. de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie; Palorini, F. [Lyon Univ., UCBL, CNRS/IN2P3, Villeurbanne (France). IPN de Lyon

    2008-07-15

    We investigate scenarios in which a charged, long-lived scalar particle decouples from the primordial plasma in the Early Universe. We compute the number density at time of freeze-out considering both the cases of abelian and non-abelian interactions and including the effect of Sommerfeld enhancement at low initial velocity. We also discuss as extreme case the maximal cross section that fulfils the unitarity bound. We then compare these number densities to the exotic nuclei searches for stable relics and to the BBN bounds on unstable relics and draw conclusions for the cases of a stau or stop NLSP in supersymmetric models with a gravitino or axino LSP. (orig.)

  13. The number density of a charged relic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, C.F.; Kraml, S.; Palorini, F.

    2008-07-01

    We investigate scenarios in which a charged, long-lived scalar particle decouples from the primordial plasma in the Early Universe. We compute the number density at time of freeze-out considering both the cases of abelian and non-abelian interactions and including the effect of Sommerfeld enhancement at low initial velocity. We also discuss as extreme case the maximal cross section that fulfils the unitarity bound. We then compare these number densities to the exotic nuclei searches for stable relics and to the BBN bounds on unstable relics and draw conclusions for the cases of a stau or stop NLSP in supersymmetric models with a gravitino or axino LSP. (orig.)

  14. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  15. Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

    2013-10-15

    Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

  16. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  17. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  18. Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

    2017-09-01

    The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

  19. Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

  20. The Use of Professionalism Scenarios in the Medical School Interview Process: Faculty and Interviewee Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Kleshinski, MD

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of professionalism scenarios on the medical school admissions process from applicant and faculty perspectives. Specifically, do completing professionalism scenarios as part of the medical school interview process have an impact on both the interviewee’s and the faculty’s perception of the process and outcome?Method: Ninety-one faculty interviewed 199 applicants from January 2007 through April 2007 at The University of Toledo College of Medicine. All applicants were asked one standard professionalism scenario in each of their two interviews. A total of six scenarios were used for the entire interviewing season in rotation every two months. A survey was administered by an admissions office staff member to both the interviewed applicants as well as faculty who conducted interviews about how these scenarios impacted their interview experience.Results: Asking applicants to respond to professionalism scenarios during the interview was described as having a positive influence on their interview experience. This was also associated with leaving an impression on the applicant about what our institution values in its students and contributed an element of personal reflection about what will be expected of them in the medical profession. Applicants more often reported that asking questions about professionalism was an important aspect of the interview than did faculty. Overall, there was an association between the interviewer’s perception of the applicant’s response and the interviewer’s assessment of professionalism.Conclusions: Professionalism scenarios can be a worthwhile tool for use in the admissions process. The interview process should encourage participation from faculty who value this as an important component in the evaluation of an applicant. Determinants of faculty perception of the role of assessing professionalism in the interview process should be investigated in future

  1. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-01

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  2. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-15

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  3. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apte, Michael G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dutton, Spencer M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berkeley, Pam M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Spears, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  4. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  5. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  6. Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

    2018-06-01

    River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

  7. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  8. Standard model baryogenesis through four-fermion operators in braneworlds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Daniel J.H.; Dent, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    We study a new baryogenesis scenario in a class of braneworld models with low fundamental scale, which typically have difficulty with baryogenesis. The scenario is characterized by its minimal nature: the field content is that of the standard model and all interactions consistent with the gauge symmetry are admitted. Baryon number is violated via a dimension-6 proton decay operator, suppressed today by the mechanism of quark-lepton separation in extra dimensions; we assume that this operator was unsuppressed in the early Universe due to a time-dependent quark-lepton separation. The source of CP violation is the CKM matrix, in combination with the dimension-6 operators. We find that almost independently of cosmology, sufficient baryogenesis is nearly impossible in such a scenario if the fundamental scale is above 100 TeV, as required by an unsuppressed neutron-antineutron oscillation operator. The only exception producing sufficient baryon asymmetry is a scenario involving out-of-equilibrium c quarks interacting with equilibrium b quarks

  9. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of North Dakota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of North Dakota. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  10. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of West Virginia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of West Virginia. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  11. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of New Mexico. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  12. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of New York

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of New York. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  13. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of Rhode Island

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of Rhode Island. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  14. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of New Hampshire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of New Hampshire. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  15. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of North Carolina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of North Carolina. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  16. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of New Jersey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of New Jersey. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  17. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of South Carolina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of South Carolina. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  18. Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 for the State of South Dakota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xie, YuLong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhuge, Jing Wei [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Halverson, Mark A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Loper, Susan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rosenberg, Michael I. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richman, Eric E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Moving to the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (ASHRAE 2013) edition from Standard 90.1-2010 (ASHRAE 2010) is cost-effective for the State of South Dakota. The table below shows the state-wide economic impact of upgrading to Standard 90.1-2013 in terms of the annual energy cost savings in dollars per square foot, additional construction cost per square foot required by the upgrade, and life-cycle cost (LCC) per square foot. These results are weighted averages for all building types in all climate zones in the state, based on weightings shown in Table 4. The methodology used for this analysis is consistent with the methodology used in the national cost-effectiveness analysis. Additional results and details on the methodology are presented in the following sections. The report provides analysis of two LCC scenarios: Scenario 1, representing publicly-owned buildings, considers initial costs, energy costs, maintenance costs, and replacement costs—without borrowing or taxes. Scenario 2, representing privately-owned buildings, adds borrowing costs and tax impacts.

  19. Hydroacoustic Studies Using HydroCAM - Station-centric Integration of Models and Observations. Quarterly Report No. 5 October - December 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upton, Zachary M.; Pulli, Jay J.

    2004-01-01

    OAK-B135 Quarterly Technical Report summarizing BBN's support of the DOE/NNSA GNEM program. This report details BBN's efforts to improve the modeling of explosions and other events underwater and their propagation to hydroacoustic sensor networks. OK to release, no restriction on copyright

  20. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  1. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  2. Formation of Compact Ellipticals in the merging star cluster scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia Zapata, Fernanda Cecilia; Theory and star formation group

    2018-01-01

    In the last years, extended old stellar clusters have been observed. They are like globular clusters (GCs) but with larger sizes(a limit of Re=10 pc is currently seen as reasonable). These extended objects (EOs) cover a huge range of mass. Objects at the low mass end with masses comparable to normal globular clusters are called extended clusters or faint fuzzies Larsen & Brodie (2000) and objects at the high-mass end are called ultra compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs). Ultra compact dwarf galaxies are compact object with luminositys above the brigtest known GCs. UCDs are more compact than typical dwarf galaxies but with comparable luminosities. Usually, a lower mass limit of 2 × 10^6 Solar masses is applied.Fellhauer & Kroupa (2002a,b) demostrated that object like ECs, FFs and UCDs can be the remnants of the merger of star clusters complexes, this scenario is called the Merging Star Cluster Scenario. Amore concise study was performed by Bruens et al. (2009, 2011).Our work tries to explain the formation of compact elliptical(cE). These objects are a comparatively rare class of spheroidal galaxies, possessing very small Re and high central surface brightnesses (Faber 1973). cEs have the same parameters as extended objects but they are slightly larger than 100 pc and the luminosities are in the range of -11 to -12 Mag.The standard formation sceanrio of these systems proposes a galaxy origin. CEs are the result of tidal stripping and truncation of nucleated larger systems. Or they could be a natural extension of the class of elliptical galaxies to lower luminosities and smaller sizes.We want to propose a completely new formation scenario for cEs. In our project we try to model cEs in a similar way that UCDs using the merging star cluster scenario extended to much higher masses and sizes. We think that in the early Universe we might have produced sufficiently strong star bursts to form cluster complexes which merge into cEs. So far it is observationally unknown if cEs are

  3. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  4. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  5. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  6. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  7. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  8. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  9. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  10. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  11. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  12. EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

  13. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  14. Assessment of Meteorological Drought Indices in Korea Using RCP 8.5 Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongwoo Jang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Diverse drought indices have been developed and used across the globe to assess and monitor droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI are drought indices that have been recently developed and are being used in the world’s leading countries. This study took place in Korea’s major observatories for drought prediction until 2100, using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 scenario. On the basis of the drought index measured by SPI, future climates were forecast to be humid, as the index would rise over time. In contrast, the RDI, which takes evapotranspiration into account, anticipated dry climates, with the drought index gradually falling over time. From the analysis of the drought index through the RCP 8.5 scenario, extreme drought intensity will be more likely to occur due to rising temperatures. To obtain the diversity of drought prediction, the evapotranspiration was deemed necessary for calculating meteorological droughts.

  15. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  16. Advancing Dose-Response Assessment Methods for Environmental Regulatory Impact Analysis: A Bayesian Belief Network Approach Applied to Inorganic Arsenic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabinski, Joseph W; Garcia-Vargas, Gonzalo; Rubio-Andrade, Marisela; Fry, Rebecca C; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-05-10

    Dose-response functions used in regulatory risk assessment are based on studies of whole organisms and fail to incorporate genetic and metabolomic data. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) could provide a powerful framework for incorporating such data, but no prior research has examined this possibility. To address this gap, we develop a BBN-based model predicting birthweight at gestational age from arsenic exposure via drinking water and maternal metabolic indicators using a cohort of 200 pregnant women from an arsenic-endemic region of Mexico. We compare BBN predictions to those of prevailing slope-factor and reference-dose approaches. The BBN outperforms prevailing approaches in balancing false-positive and false-negative rates. Whereas the slope-factor approach had 2% sensitivity and 99% specificity and the reference-dose approach had 100% sensitivity and 0% specificity, the BBN's sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 30%, respectively. BBNs offer a promising opportunity to advance health risk assessment by incorporating modern genetic and metabolomic data.

  17. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  18. Requirements for Semantic Educational Recommender Systems in Formal E-Learning Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus G. Boticario

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes how recommender systems can be applied to current e-learning systems to guide learners in personalized inclusive e-learning scenarios. Recommendations can be used to overcome current limitations of learning management systems in providing personalization and accessibility features. Recommenders can take advantage of standards-based solutions to provide inclusive support. To this end we have identified the need for developing semantic educational recommender systems, which are able to extend existing learning management systems with adaptive navigation support. In this paper we present three requirements to be considered in developing these semantic educational recommender systems, which are in line with the service-oriented approach of the third generation of learning management systems, namely: (i a recommendation model; (ii an open standards-based service-oriented architecture; and (iii a usable and accessible graphical user interface to deliver the recommendations.

  19. An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battista, Alexis

    2017-01-01

    The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

  20. Downregulation of glutathione S-transferase M1 protein in N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl)nitrosamine-induced mouse bladder carcinogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chuang, Jing-Jing [Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Biopharmaceuticals, College of Life Sciences, National Chiayi University, Chiayi, Taiwan (China); Dai, Yuan-Chang [Department of Pathology, Chiayi Christian Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan (China); Lin, Yung-Lun; Chen, Yang-Yi; Lin, Wei-Han [Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Biopharmaceuticals, College of Life Sciences, National Chiayi University, Chiayi, Taiwan (China); Chan, Hong-Lin [Institute of Bioinformatics and Structural Biology and Department of Medical Sciences, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Liu, Yi-Wen, E-mail: ywlss@mail.ncyu.edu.tw [Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Biopharmaceuticals, College of Life Sciences, National Chiayi University, Chiayi, Taiwan (China)

    2014-09-15

    Bladder cancer is highly recurrent following specific transurethral resection and intravesical chemotherapy, which has prompted continuing efforts to develop novel therapeutic agents and early-stage diagnostic tools. Specific changes in protein expression can provide a diagnostic marker. In our present study, we investigated changes in protein expression during urothelial carcinogenesis. The carcinogen BBN was used to induce mouse bladder tumor formation. Mouse bladder mucosa proteins were collected and analyzed by 2D electrophoresis from 6 to 20 weeks after commencing continuous BBN treatment. By histological examination, the connective layer of the submucosa showed gradual thickening and the number of submucosal capillaries gradually increased after BBN treatment. At 12-weeks after the start of BBN treatment, the urothelia became moderately dysplastic and tumors arose after 20-weeks of treatment. These induced bladder lesions included carcinoma in situ and connective tissue invasive cancer. In protein 2D analysis, the sequentially downregulated proteins from 6 to 20 weeks included GSTM1, L-lactate dehydrogenase B chain, keratin 8, keratin 18 and major urinary proteins 2 and 11/8. In contrast, the sequentially upregulated proteins identified were GSTO1, keratin 15 and myosin light polypeptide 6. Western blotting confirmed that GSTM1 and NQO-1 were decreased, while GSTO1 and Sp1 were increased, after BBN treatment. In human bladder cancer cells, 5-aza-2′-deoxycytidine increased the GSTM1 mRNA and protein expression. These data suggest that the downregulation of GSTM1 in the urothelia is a biomarker of bladder carcinogenesis and that this may be mediated by DNA CpG methylation. - Highlights: • GSTM1 and NQO-1 proteins decreased in the mouse bladder mucosa after BBN treatment. • BBN induced GSTO1 and Sp1 protein expression in the mouse bladder mucosa. • 5-Aza-2′-deoxycytidine increased GSTM1 mRNA and protein in human bladder cancer cell. • GSTM1

  1. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  2. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  3. Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.; Bhadra, Sraddhanjoli

    2017-11-27

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to help determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.

  4. ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laqua H.P.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

  5. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

  6. Approach toward development of release standards for D and D cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S. Y.

    1999-01-01

    The release of materials containing residual radioactivity from a controlled environment in decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) activities has been problematic. The primary impediment to such a release is the lack of a suitable framework within which release standards can be developed. The concept of clearance for radioactive materials was recently introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (l). This concept is being evaluated by the international regulatory communities as a basis for setting standards for releasing from control solid materials containing residual radioactivity. Accordingly, both the IAEA (2) and the European Commission (EC) (3) have recently proposed clearance standards. In the US, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) has just begun its rule-making process on clearance. The term ''clearance'' was introduced as a regulatory process for releasing radioactive materials posing negligible risks. A trivial risk level has been determined to be a 10 -6 to 10 -7 annual risk to an exposed individual, and a population risk of no more than 0.1 for an annual practice. Under these strict constraints, exposure scenarios would be developed to estimate potential doses to affected individuals. Such scenarios may account for processing, disposal, and product end-use of materials. This paper discusses these scenarios and also describes the technical basis for deriving release levels under the suggested risk for dose constraints

  7. Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ} decay in scalar and vector leptoquark scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xin-Qiang; Yang, Ya-Dong; Zhang, Xin [Institute of Particle Physics and Key Laboratory of Quark and Lepton Physics (MOE),Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei 430079 (China)

    2017-02-13

    It has been shown that the anomalies observed in B̄→D{sup (∗)}τν̄{sub τ} and B̄→K̄ℓ{sup +}ℓ{sup −} decays can be resolved by adding a single scalar or vector leptoquark to the Standard Model, while constraints from other precision measurements in the flavour sector can be satisfied without fine-tuning. To further explore these two interesting scenarios, in this paper, we study their effects in the semi-leptonic Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ} decay. Using the best-fit solutions for the operator coefficients allowed by the current data of mesonic decays, we find that (i) the two scenarios give similar amounts of enhancements to the branching fraction B(Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ}) and the ratio R{sub Λ{sub c}}=B(Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ})/B(Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}ℓν̄{sub ℓ}), (ii) the two best-fit solutions in each of these two scenarios are also indistinguishable from each other, (iii) both scenarios give nearly the same predictions as those of the Standard Model for the longitudinal polarizations of Λ{sub c} and τ as well as the lepton-side forward-backward asymmetry. With future measurements of these observables in Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ} decay at the LHCb, the two leptoquark scenarios could be further tested, and even differentiated from the other NP explanations for the R{sub D{sup (}{sup ∗}{sup )}} anomalies. We also discuss the feasibility for the measurements of these observables at the LHC and the future e{sup +}e{sup −} colliders.

  8. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  9. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  10. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  11. Ethicted (evaluation process model to improve personalised ICT services for independent living and active ageing)--future scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärki, Anne; Sävel, Jaana; Sallinen, Merja; Kuusinen, Jere

    2013-01-01

    ICT innovations are constantly developed, and there is no lack of elderly customers, as the number of the elderly is dramatically increasing. Elderly are willing to use ICT to increase their own safety and social activity, but they need trust on the reliability, accessibility and other ethical aspects of ICT including the maintenance of privacy and self-determination. Ethical standards for ICT are usually not considered. "Ethicted" characterizes an ICT service or product as ethically evaluated. As a standardized procedure, it will not only increase the acceptability of ICT, but also provide services for ICT developers. In the future scenario, ICT under development should be evaluated by using a process model that is specifically built to find the lacks in ethical aspects. The model would then be tested by end-users, the formal and informal care givers, to receive direct feedback for redeveloping solutions. As final outcomes, there should be standards for ICT in elderly care and a service for ICT developers to utilize the evaluation model. This future scenario work included partners from 6 EU member countries. The combination of academic research and industrial/commercial interest of ICT developers should and can bring new value to assistive ICT for elderly care.

  12. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  13. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  14. Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anniken Enger

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

  15. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  16. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  17. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  18. Probing the reheating temperature of the universe with a gravitational wave background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakayama, Kazunori; Saito, Shun; Suwa, Yudai; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi

    2008-01-01

    The thermal history of the universe after big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is well understood both theoretically and observationally, and recent cosmological observations also begin to reveal the inflationary dynamics. However, the epoch between inflation and BBN is scarcely known. In this paper we show that the detection of the stochastic gravitational wave background around 1 Hz provides useful information about thermal history well before BBN. In particular, the reheating temperature of the universe may be determined by future space-based laser interferometer experiments such as DECIGO and/or BBO if it is around 10 6−9 GeV, depending on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r and dilution factor F

  19. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  20. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  1. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  2. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  3. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

  4. Search for resonant sneutrino production in R-parity violating SUSY scenarios with CMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Henning; Erdweg, Soeren; Gueth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Meyer, Arnd; Mukherjee, Swagata [III. Physikalisches Institut A, RWTH Aachen (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Supersymmetric models are among the most promising extensions of the standard model. In many models R-parity is said to be conserved. However, allowing R-parity violation can permit interesting final states and signatures that are not covered by SUSY scenarios with R-parity conservation. The decay of a resonant sneutrino to two standard model leptons of different flavour is analyzed. The focus lies on the electron-muon final state investigating the R-parity violating couplings and the mass of the resonantly produced sneutrino. The analysis is based on the 2015 data of proton-proton collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.5 fb{sup -1} at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC.

  5. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  6. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  7. Impacts of land-use change on the water cycle of urban areas within the Upper Great Lakes drainage basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Pijanowski, B. C.; Niyogi, D.

    2006-12-01

    Urbanization is altering the global landscape at an unprecedented rate. This form of land cover/land-use change (LCLUC) can significantly reduce infiltration and runoff response times, and alter heat and water vapor fluxes, which can further alter surface-forced regional circulation patterns and modulate precipitation volume and intensity. Spatial patterns of future LCLUC are projected using the Land Transformation Model (LTM), enhanced to incorporate dynamic landcover, economics and policy using Bayesian Belief Networks (LTM- BBN). Different land use scenarios predicted by the LTM-BBN as well as a pre-development scenario are represented through the Unified Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) with an enhanced urban canopy model, embedded in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The coupled WRF-Noah LSM model will be used to investigate the connections between land-use, hydrometeorology and the atmosphere, through analysis of water and energy balances over several urbanized watersheds within the Upper Great Lakes region. Preliminary results focus on a single watershed, the White River in Indiana, which includes the city of Indianapolis. Coupled WRF-Noah simulations made using pre and post-development land use maps provide a 7 year climatology of convective storm morphology around the urban center. Precipitation and other meteorological variables from the WRF-Noah simulations are used to drive simulations of the White River watershed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model. The VIC model has been modified to represent urban areas and has been calibrated for modern flow regimes in the White River watershed. Pre- and post-development VIC simulations are used to assess the impact of Indianapolis area infiltration changes. Finally, VIC model simulations utilizing projected land use change from 2005 through 2040 for the Indianapolis metropolitan area explore the magnitude of future hydrologic change, especially peak flow response

  8. Minimizing worst-case and average-case makespan over scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feuerstein, Esteban; Marchetti-Spaccamela, Alberto; Schalekamp, Frans; Sitters, R.A.; van der Ster, Suzanne; Stougie, Leen; van Zuylen, Anke

    2017-01-01

    We consider scheduling problems over scenarios where the goal is to find a single assignment of the jobs to the machines which performs well over all scenarios in an explicitly given set. Each scenario is a subset of jobs that must be executed in that scenario. The two objectives that we consider

  9. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  10. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  11. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

    2005-07-15

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  12. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

    2005-07-01

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  13. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  14. Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

  15. More is different: Reconciling eV sterile neutrinos with cosmological mass bounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Tang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available It is generally expected that adding light sterile species would increase the effective number of neutrinos, Neff. In this paper we discuss a scenario that Neff can actually decrease due to the neutrino oscillation effect if sterile neutrinos have self-interactions. We specifically focus on the eV mass range, as suggested by the neutrino anomalies. With large self-interactions, sterile neutrinos are not fully thermalized in the early Universe because of the suppressed effective mixing angle or matter effect. As the Universe cools down, flavor equilibrium between active and sterile species can be reached after big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN epoch, but leading to a decrease of Neff. In such a scenario, we also show that the conflict with cosmological mass bounds on the additional sterile neutrinos can be relaxed further when more light species are introduced. To be consistent with the latest Planck results, at least 3 sterile species are needed.

  16. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  17. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  18. Management of over-the-counter insomnia complaints in Australian community pharmacies: a standardized patient study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashyap, Krishneeta C; Nissen, Lisa M; Smith, Simon S; Kyle, Greg

    2014-04-01

    To evaluate the current management of over-the-counter (OTC) insomnia complaints in Australian community pharmacies using standardized patient methodology. Trained standardized patients visited a sample of 100 randomly selected South East Queensland community pharmacies in June 2011. The standardized patients enacted two OTC insomnia scenarios: a direct product request (DPR) (n = 50) and a symptom-based request (SBR) (n = 50). Results of the interactions were documented immediately after each visit and evaluated using the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia's WHAT STOP GO protocol as a standard comparison. Of all DPRs, 30% were handled entirely by the pharmacist, 70% of staff enquired about specific symptoms and 28% investigated the cause of insomnia. No staff investigated the frequency of product use. The DPR scenario resulted in a 92% supply of the requested doxylamine product (Restavit). In the SBR scenario, 18% of requests were handled entirely by the pharmacist, 58% of staff enquired about specific symptoms and 44% investigated the cause of insomnia. Staff recommended medicated products (38%), or herbal (78%) or non-drug techniques (18%). Investigation into smoking and alcohol intake was not undertaken in DPR or SBR interactions, while questioning on caffeine intake was undertaken in 2 and 14% of cases respectively. There were no significant differences found in the handling of sleep requests by pharmacists compared to pharmacy assistants. The standardized patient methodology was a successful way to assess the community pharmacy counselling provided with OTC sleep requests and suboptimal staff responses were found when compared with recommended practice standards. © 2013 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  19. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  20. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  1. Building climate change into infrastructure codes and standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auld, H.; Klaasen, J.; Morris, R.; Fernandez, S.; MacIver, D.; Bernstein, D.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Building codes and standards and the climatic design values embedded within these legal to semi-legal documents have profound safety, health and economic implications for Canada's infrastructure systems. The climatic design values that have been used for the design of almost all of today's more than $5.5 Trillion in infrastructure are based on historical climate data and assume that the extremes of the past will represent future conditions. Since new infrastructure based on codes and standards will be built to survive for decades to come, it is critically important that existing climatic design information be as accurate and up-to-date as possible, that the changing climate be monitored to detect and highlight vulnerabilities of existing infrastructure, that forensic studies of climate-related failures be undertaken and that codes and standards processes incorporate future climates and extremes as much as possible. Uncertainties in the current climate change models and their scenarios currently challenge our ability to project future extremes regionally and locally. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution of these climate change scenarios, along with improved methodologies to treat model biases and localize results, will allow future codes and standards to better reflect the extremes and weathering conditions expected over the lifespan of structures. In the meantime, other information and code processes can be used to incorporate changing climate conditions into upcoming infrastructure codes and standards, to “bridge” the model uncertainty gap and to complement the state of existing projections. This presentation will outline some of the varied information and processes that will be used to incorporate climate change adaptation into the next development cycle of the National Building Code of Canada and numerous other national CSA infrastructure standards. (author)

  2. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  3. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  4. Non-extensive Statistics to the Cosmological Lithium Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, S. Q.; He, J. J.; Parikh, A.; Kahl, D.; Bertulani, C. A.; Kajino, T.; Mathews, G. J.; Zhao, G.

    2017-01-01

    Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) theory predicts the abundances of the light elements D, 3He, 4He, and 7Li produced in the early universe. The primordial abundances of D and 4He inferred from observational data are in good agreement with predictions, however, BBN theory overestimates the primordial 7Li abundance by about a factor of three. This is the so-called “cosmological lithium problem.” Solutions to this problem using conventional astrophysics and nuclear physics have not been successful over the past few decades, probably indicating the presence of new physics during the era of BBN. We have investigated the impact on BBN predictions of adopting a generalized distribution to describe the velocities of nucleons in the framework of Tsallis non-extensive statistics. This generalized velocity distribution is characterized by a parameter q, and reduces to the usually assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution for q = 1. We find excellent agreement between predicted and observed primordial abundances of D, 4He, and 7Li for 1.069 ≤ q ≤ 1.082, suggesting a possible new solution to the cosmological lithium problem.

  5. Decision support systems for power plants impact on the living standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatzimouratidis, Athanasios I.; Pilavachi, Petros A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Ten major types of power plant are evaluated as to their impact on living standard. ► Uncertainty in both criteria performance and criteria weighting is considered. ► PROMETHEE II method, 12 criteria and 13 scenarios are used. ► Results are presented per scenario and per type of power plant. ► Optimal solution depends on scenario assumptions of the decision maker. - Abstract: In developed countries, the quality of life is of first priority and an overall assessment of power plant impact on the living standard requires a multicriteria analysis of both positive and negative factors incorporating uncertainty in criteria performance and probability assessment of weighting factors. This study incorporates PROMETHEE II to assess 10 major types of power plant under 12 criteria, 13 fixed and infinite customized probability assessed weight set scenarios. The power plants considered are coal/lignite, oil, natural gas turbine, natural gas combined cycle, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, biomass and geothermal. Geothermal, wind and photovoltaic power plants are excellent choices in most of the cases and biomass and hydro should also be preferred to nuclear and fossil fuel. Among nuclear and fossil fuel the choice is based on the specific parameters of each case examined while natural gas technologies have specific advantages. The motivation of this study was to provide a tool for the decision-maker to evaluate all major types of power plant incorporating multicriteria and customized probability assessment of weighting factors.

  6. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  7. Challenges in the detection of long lived particles with ATLAS: the Hidden valley scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Ventura, D

    2009-01-01

    A number of extensions of the Standard Model result in particles that are neutral, weakly-coupled and have macroscopic decay lengths that can be comparable with LHC detector dimensions[1, 2, 3]. These long lived particles occur in many models; in the Hidden Valley (HV) Scenario a new sector is weakly coupled to the Standard Model and results in neutral long lived HV particles ($pi_{v}$) that decay to heavy quark pairs and tau pairs. These particles can be produced in Higgs boson decays, SUSY processes or $Z^prime$ decays. \\ We present the results of a first study of the ATLAS Detector performance for the Higgs decay $h^0 ightarrowpi_vpi_v$, where the $pi_v$ is neutral and has a displaced decay mainly to bottom quarks. The initial goal of our study is to obtain benchmark triggers for processes with such non-standard signatures in the ATLAS apparatus.

  8. Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D. Danny

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

  9. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  10. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  11. Higgs particle production at LEP in multi-doublet scenarios with hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinowski, J.; Pokorski, S.

    1989-01-01

    We discuss the production at LEP of Higgs particles in multi-doublet scenarios with a hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values ν 2 /ν 1 ≅m t /m b . The cross sections are similar or larger than for the standard Higgs boson of the same mass but the signature is different. Events with four b-jets are the only important signature of such Higgs particles. (orig.)

  12. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  13. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  14. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  15. Regular Topologies for Gigabit Wide-Area Networks: Congestion Avoidance Testbed Experiments. Volume 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Barbara A.; McKenney, Paul E., Sr.; Lee, Danny

    1994-01-01

    This document is Volume 3 of the final technical report on the work performed by SRI International (SRI) on SRI Project 8600. The document includes source listings for all software developed by SRI under this effort. Since some of our work involved the use of ST-II and the Sun Microsystems, Inc. (Sun) High-Speed Serial Interface (HSI/S) driver, we have included some of the source developed by LBL and BBN as well. In most cases, our decision to include source developed by other contractors depended on whether it was necessary to modify the original code. If we have modified the software in any way, it is included in this document. In the case of the Traffic Generator (TG), however, we have included all the ST-II software, even though BBN performed the integration, because the ST-II software is part of the standard TG release. It is important to note that all the code developed by other contractors is in the public domain, so that all software developed under this effort can be re-created from the source included here.

  16. Weak scale from the maximum entropy principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Yuta; Kawai, Hikaru; Kawana, Kiyoharu

    2015-03-01

    The theory of the multiverse and wormholes suggests that the parameters of the Standard Model (SM) are fixed in such a way that the radiation of the S3 universe at the final stage S_rad becomes maximum, which we call the maximum entropy principle. Although it is difficult to confirm this principle generally, for a few parameters of the SM, we can check whether S_rad actually becomes maximum at the observed values. In this paper, we regard S_rad at the final stage as a function of the weak scale (the Higgs expectation value) vh, and show that it becomes maximum around vh = {{O}} (300 GeV) when the dimensionless couplings in the SM, i.e., the Higgs self-coupling, the gauge couplings, and the Yukawa couplings are fixed. Roughly speaking, we find that the weak scale is given by vh ˜ T_{BBN}2 / (M_{pl}ye5), where ye is the Yukawa coupling of electron, T_BBN is the temperature at which the Big Bang nucleosynthesis starts, and M_pl is the Planck mass.

  17. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  18. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  19. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  20. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  1. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

    2006-01-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  2. Assessing the performance and satisfaction of medical residents utilizing standardized patient versus mannequin-simulated training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alsaad AA

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Ali A Alsaad,1 Swetha Davuluri,2 Vandana Y Bhide,3 Amy M Lannen,4 Michael J Maniaci3 1Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, 2University of Miami, Coral Gables, 3Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, 4J. Wayne and Delores Barr Weaver Simulation Center, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, USA Background: Conducting simulations of rapidly decompensating patients are a key part of internal medicine (IM residency training. Traditionally, mannequins have been the simulation tool used in these scenarios. Objective: To compare IM residents’ performance and assess realism in specific-simulated decompensating patient scenarios using standardized patients (SPs as compared to mannequin. Methods: Nineteen IM residents were randomized to undergo simulations using either a mannequin or an SP. Each resident in the two groups underwent four different simulation scenarios (calcium channel blocker overdose, severe sepsis, severe asthma exacerbation, and acute bacterial meningitis. Residents completed pretest and post-test evaluations as well as a questionnaire to assess the reality perception (realism score. Results: Nine residents completed mannequin-based scenarios, whereas 10 completed SP-based scenarios. Improvement in the post-test scores was seen in both groups. However, there were significantly higher post-test scores achieved with SP simulations in three out of the four scenarios (P=0.01. When compared with the mannequin group, the SP simulation group showed a significantly higher average realism score (P=0.002. Conclusions: Applying SP-based specific-simulation scenarios in IM residency training may result in better performance and a higher sense of a realistic experience by medical residents. Keywords: simulation, standardized patient, satisfaction, mannequin, assessment, resident education

  3. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  4. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

  5. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  6. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  7. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Nicol

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessment (EIA is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  8. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  9. The Key-Role of shielding analysis in advanced Candu Fuel bundles nuclear safety improvement for some accidental criticality scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.A.; Rizoiu, A.; Olteanu, G.

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims to present the source term and photon dose rates estimation for advanced Candu fuel bundles in some accidental criticality scenarios. As reference, the Candu standard fuel bundle has been used. The scenarios take into account for a very short-time irradiated or spent fuel bundles for some configurations closed to criticality. In order to estimate irradiated fuel characteristic parameters and radiation doses, the ORNL's SCALE 5 codes Origin-S and Monte Carlo MORSE-SGC have been used. The paper includes the irradiated fuel characteristic parameters comparison for the considered Candu fuel bundles, providing also a comparison between the corresponding radiation doses

  10. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  11. The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

  12. Beyond the standard Higgs after the 125 GeV Higgs discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grojean, C

    2015-01-13

    An elementary weakly coupled and solitary Higgs boson allows one to extend the validity of the Standard Model up to very high energy, maybe as high as the Planck scale. Nonetheless, this scenario fails to fill the universe with dark matter and does not explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry. However, amending the Standard Model tends to destabilize the weak scale by large quantum corrections to the Higgs potential. New degrees of freedom, new forces, new organizing principles are required to provide a consistent and natural description of physics beyond the standard Higgs.

  13. Primordial lithium and the standard model(s)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deliyannis, C.P.; Demarque, P.; Kawaler, S.D.; Krauss, L.M.; Romanelli, P.

    1989-01-01

    We present the results of new theoretical work on surface 7 Li and 6 Li evolution in the oldest halo stars along with a new and refined analysis of the predicted primordial lithium abundance resulting from big-bang nucleosynthesis. This allows us to determine the constraints which can be imposed upon cosmology by a consideration of primordial lithium using both standard big-bang and standard stellar-evolution models. Such considerations lead to a constraint on the baryon density today of 0.0044 2 <0.025 (where the Hubble constant is 100h Km sec/sup -1/ Mpc /sup -1/), and impose limitations on alternative nucleosynthesis scenarios

  14. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  15. Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes

    OpenAIRE

    Shee, Poon Kim

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this paper is to analyze three future scenarios in the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These namely are No War Scenario, Impasse Scenario and Peace Scenario. Ultimately, the way forward towards a viable solution to resolving the South China Sea maritime disputes between China and other claimant states depends on the political wisdom, will and determination of the disputing states. Lofty nationalistic aspirations have to be tempered with a degree of flexibility and pragm...

  16. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  17. Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  18. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

    2010-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

  19. Stau relic density at the big-bang nucleosynthesis era in the coannihilation scenario and a solution to the Li7 problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jittoh, Toshifumi; Kohri, Kazunori; Koike, Masafumi; Sato, Joe; Shimomura, Takashi; Yamanaka, Masato

    2010-12-01

    We calculate the relic density of stau at the big-bang nucleosynthesis era in the coannihilation scenario of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. In this scenario, stau can be long lived and have significance in the remediation of light elements abundances. The freeze-out of stau is corroborated by solving the Boltzmann equation numerically, and the parameter dependence of the relic density is investigated. The possibility of solving the Li7 problem is examined by taking account into the long-lived stau. By adopting an observational value of Li7 in [J. Meléndez and I. Ramírez, Astrophys. J. 615, L33 (2004).ASJOAB0004-637X10.1086/425962], we get minimal supersymmetric standard model parameter space in which abundances of both dark matter and all of the light elements are reproduced in accordance with observations. We also address the influence of intergenerational mixing on our calculation.

  20. Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semsar-Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario