WorldWideScience

Sample records for stable population size

  1. Population Genetics with Fluctuating Population Sizes

    OpenAIRE

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2016-01-01

    Standard neutral population genetics theory with a strictly fixed population size has important limitations. An alternative model that allows independently fluctuating population sizes and reproduces the standard neutral evolution is reviewed. We then study a situation such that the competing species are neutral at the equilibrium population size but population size fluctuations nevertheless favor fixation of one species over the other. In this case, a separation of timescales emerges natural...

  2. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  3. Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alho, Juha M

    2008-08-01

    Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging. In this article, I introduce a stable, open-population model in which cohort net migration is proportional to births. In this case, the migration-fertility trade-off can be studied with particular ease. I show that although migration can increase the growth rate, which tends to make the age distribution younger, it also has an opposite effect because of its typical age pattern. I capture the effect of the age pattern of net migration in a migration-survivor function. The effect of net migration on growth is quantified with data from 17 European countries. I show that some countries already have a level of migration that will lead to stationarity. For other countries with asymptotically declining population, migration still provides opportunities for slowing down aging of the population as a whole.

  4. Population Games, Stable Games, and Passivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Fox

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The class of “stable games”, introduced by Hofbauer and Sandholm in 2009, has the attractive property of admitting global convergence to equilibria under many evolutionary dynamics. We show that stable games can be identified as a special case of the feedback-system-theoretic notion of a “passive” dynamical system. Motivated by this observation, we develop a notion of passivity for evolutionary dynamics that complements the definition of the class of stable games. Since interconnections of passive dynamical systems exhibit stable behavior, we can make conclusions about passive evolutionary dynamics coupled with stable games. We show how established evolutionary dynamics qualify as passive dynamical systems. Moreover, we exploit the flexibility of the definition of passive dynamical systems to analyze generalizations of stable games and evolutionary dynamics that include forecasting heuristics as well as certain games with memory.

  5. Performance of population size on Knapsack problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Oyewola

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an investigation of a performance of population size on the genetic algorithm (GA for a knapsack problem is considered. Population sizes between 10 and 200 chromosomes in the population are tested. In order to obtain meaningful information about the performance of the population size, a considerable number of independent runs of the GA are performed. Accurate model parameters values are obtained in reasonable computational time. Further increase of the population size, does not improve the solution accuracy. Moreover, the computational time is increased significantly.

  6. [Antimicrobial activity of stable silver nanoparticles of a certain size].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukha, Iu P; Eremenko, A M; Smirnova, N P; Mikhienkova, A I; Korchak, G I; Gorchev, V F; Chunikhin, A Iu

    2013-01-01

    Conditions for obtaining stable silver nanoparticles smaller than 10 nm were developed using a binary stabilizer polyvinylpyrrolidone/sodium dodecylsulphate in optimal ratio. Optical spectra, morphology and dependence of size of the nanoparticles on the amount of reducing agent were studied. Colloidal solutions of nanosilver showed a high bactericidal activity against strains of Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and fungicidal activity against Candida albicans. The mechanism of action of nanosized silver on microbial cell was examined by laser scanning confocal microscope using fluorescent label. First step of antimicrobial effect on microorganisms was membrane damage and penetration of silver nanoparticles into the cell. Prolonged stability of nanoparticles and their antimicrobial activity over the past two years were showed.

  7. Estimating total population size for Songbirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan Bart

    2005-01-01

    A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

  8. Detecting past changes of effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

  9. Detecting past changes of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-06-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff.

  10. The dynamics of endemic malaria in populations of varying size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2001-10-01

    A mathematical model for endemic malaria involving variable human and mosquito populations is analysed. A threshold parameter R 0 exists and the disease can persist if and only if R 0 exceeds 1. R 0 is seen to be a generalisation of the basic reproduction ratio associated with the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission. The disease free equilibrium always exist and is globally stable when R 0 is below 1. A perturbation analysis is used to approximate the endemic equilibrium in the important case where the disease related death rate is nonzero. A diffusion approximation is used to approximate the quasi-stationary distribution of the associated stochastic model. Numerical simulations show that when R 0 is distinctly greater than 1, the endemic deterministic equilibrium is globally stable. Furthermore, in quasi-stationarity, the stochastic process undergoes oscillations about a mean population whose size can be approximated by the stable endemic deterministic equilibrium. (author)

  11. New size measurements in population ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Cano Rodríguez, Manuel; Núñez-Nickel, Manuel

    2002-01-01

    In organizational ecology, we find the analysis of the impact exerted by competition between populations on vital ratios to be relatively under-developed. This paper intends to address this issue by developing new competition measurements whose common denominator is to give importance to organizational size. The application of these measurements in the case of competition between organizational forms in a population and their impact on mortality rates, demonstrates the usefulness of modelling...

  12. Stable Leader Election in Population Protocols Requires Linear Time

    OpenAIRE

    Doty, David; Soloveichik, David

    2015-01-01

    A population protocol *stably elects a leader* if, for all $n$, starting from an initial configuration with $n$ agents each in an identical state, with probability 1 it reaches a configuration $\\mathbf{y}$ that is correct (exactly one agent is in a special leader state $\\ell$) and stable (every configuration reachable from $\\mathbf{y}$ also has a single agent in state $\\ell$). We show that any population protocol that stably elects a leader requires $\\Omega(n)$ expected "parallel time" --- $\\...

  13. A neutral model with fluctuating population size and its effective size.

    OpenAIRE

    Iizuka, Masaru; Tachida, Hidenori; Matsuda, Hirotsugu

    2002-01-01

    We consider a diffusion model with neutral alleles whose population size is fluctuating randomly. For this model, the effects of fluctuation of population size on the effective size are investigated. The effective size defined by the equilibrium average heterozygosity is larger than the harmonic mean of population size but smaller than the arithmetic mean of population size. To see explicitly the effects of fluctuation of population size on the effective size, we investigate a special case wh...

  14. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple-it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option.

  15. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Cruz

    Full Text Available Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple-it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100 individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5% in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option.

  16. Estimation of contemporary effective population size and population declines using RAD sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunziata, Schyler O; Weisrock, David W

    2018-03-01

    Large genomic data sets generated with restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), in combination with demographic inference methods, are improving our ability to gain insights into the population history of species. We used a simulation approach to examine the potential for RADseq data sets to accurately estimate effective population size (N e ) over the course of stable and declining population trends, and we compare the ability of two methods of analysis to accurately distinguish stable from steadily declining populations over a contemporary time scale (20 generations). Using a linkage disequilibrium-based analysis, individual sampling (i.e., n ≥ 30) had the greatest effect on N e estimation and the detection of population size declines, with declines reliably detected across scenarios ~10 generations after they began. Coalescent-based inference required fewer sampled individuals (i.e., n = 15), and instead was most influenced by the size of the SNP data set, with 25,000-50,000 SNPs required for accurate detection of population trends and at least 20 generations after decline began. The number of samples available and targeted number of RADseq loci are important criteria when choosing between these methods. Neither method suffered any apparent bias due to the effects of allele dropout typical of RAD data. With an understanding of the limitations and biases of these approaches, researchers can make more informed decisions when designing their sampling and analyses. Overall, our results reveal that demographic inference using RADseq data can be successfully applied to infer recent population size change and may be an important tool for population monitoring and conservation biology.

  17. Inferring Past Effective Population Size from Distributions of Coalescent Times

    OpenAIRE

    Gattepaille, Lucie; G?nther, Torsten; Jakobsson, Mattias

    2016-01-01

    Inferring and understanding changes in effective population size over time is a major challenge for population genetics. Here we investigate some theoretical properties of random-mating populations with varying size over time. In particular, we present an exact solution to compute the population size as a function of time, N e ( t ) , based on distributions of coalescent times of samples of any size. This result reduces the problem of population size inference to a problem of estimating coale...

  18. Effect of unsampled populations on the estimation of population sizes and migration rates between sampled populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerli, Peter

    2004-04-01

    Current estimators of gene flow come in two methods; those that estimate parameters assuming that the populations investigated are a small random sample of a large number of populations and those that assume that all populations were sampled. Maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches that estimate the migration rates and population sizes directly using coalescent theory can easily accommodate datasets that contain a population that has no data, a so-called 'ghost' population. This manipulation allows us to explore the effects of missing populations on the estimation of population sizes and migration rates between two specific populations. The biases of the inferred population parameters depend on the magnitude of the migration rate from the unknown populations. The effects on the population sizes are larger than the effects on the migration rates. The more immigrants from the unknown populations that are arriving in the sample populations the larger the estimated population sizes. Taking into account a ghost population improves or at least does not harm the estimation of population sizes. Estimates of the scaled migration rate M (migration rate per generation divided by the mutation rate per generation) are fairly robust as long as migration rates from the unknown populations are not huge. The inclusion of a ghost population does not improve the estimation of the migration rate M; when the migration rates are estimated as the number of immigrants Nm then a ghost population improves the estimates because of its effect on population size estimation. It seems that for 'real world' analyses one should carefully choose which populations to sample, but there is no need to sample every population in the neighbourhood of a population of interest.

  19. Stable Regulation of Cell Cycle Events in Mycobacteria: Insights From Inherently Heterogeneous Bacterial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logsdon, Michelle M.; Aldridge, Bree B.

    2018-01-01

    Model bacteria, such as E. coli and B. subtilis, tightly regulate cell cycle progression to achieve consistent cell size distributions and replication dynamics. Many of the hallmark features of these model bacteria, including lateral cell wall elongation and symmetric growth and division, do not occur in mycobacteria. Instead, mycobacterial growth is characterized by asymmetric polar growth and division. This innate asymmetry creates unequal birth sizes and growth rates for daughter cells with each division, generating a phenotypically heterogeneous population. Although the asymmetric growth patterns of mycobacteria lead to a larger variation in birth size than typically seen in model bacterial populations, the cell size distribution is stable over time. Here, we review the cellular mechanisms of growth, division, and cell cycle progression in mycobacteria in the face of asymmetry and inherent heterogeneity. These processes coalesce to control cell size. Although Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium bovis Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) utilize a novel model of cell size control, they are similar to previously studied bacteria in that initiation of DNA replication is a key checkpoint for cell division. We compare the regulation of DNA replication initiation and strategies used for cell size homeostasis in mycobacteria and model bacteria. Finally, we review the importance of cellular organization and chromosome segregation relating to the physiology of mycobacteria and consider how new frameworks could be applied across the wide spectrum of bacterial diversity. PMID:29619019

  20. The influence of sample size on the determination of population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reliable measures of population sizes of endangered and vulnerable species are difficult to achieve because of high variability in population sizes and logistic constraints on sample sizes, yet such measures are crucial for the determination of the success of conservation and management strategies aimed at curbing ...

  1. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than that...

  2. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Census population size, sex-ratio and female reproductive success were monitored in 10 laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for different ages of reproduction. With this demographic information, we estimated eigenvalue, variance and probability of allele loss effective population sizes. We conclude ...

  3. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E

    2003-01-01

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated

  4. Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

  5. Population Size and Diet of Bush Hyrax Hetrohyrax brucei (Gray ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A number of species in these forests however, are suffering from the effects of isolation and fragmentations which are poorly investigated issues. We studied population size and diet of bush hyrax, Heterohyrax brucei, in the isolated Romanat Michael church forest in Northern Ethiopia. The overall population size of the bush ...

  6. Seasonal fluctuations in population size and habitat segregation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seasonal fluctuations in population size reflect breeding patterns and movements of birds, but distinguishing residents from itinerant birds is difficult with partially migratory species such as Kittlitz's Plover. We determined changes in the size of Kittlitz's Plover populations in two microhabitats (Goose Point and Sandy Beach) ...

  7. Preliminary estimates of population size and capture rates of mature ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population size estimates and capture rates by various fishing techniques of mature estuarine bream, Acanthopagrus berda, were determined in the Kosi lakes system using mark-recapture methods. The total population size of mature A. berda was estimated to be 45257 (95% confidence interval: 31 589-74429) based on ...

  8. Effective population size and genetic conservation criteria for bull trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce E. Rieman; F. W. Allendorf

    2001-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept in the management of threatened species like bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. General guidelines suggest that effective population sizes of 50 or 500 are essential to minimize inbreeding effects or maintain adaptive genetic variation, respectively....

  9. Variations in size compositions of populations of Upogebia africana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The size frequencies of various populations of the mud prawn Upogebia africana sampled within the Swartkops estuary were determined and the size compositions of these populations varied along the length of the estuary, as well as vertically within the intertidal zone. Ovigerous prawns were recorded from sites ...

  10. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  12. Ecological effects on effective population size in an annual plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nutrient-limited soil can be a strong selective force on plant populations. In addition, ecological factors such as competitive interactions have been shown to have an effect on effective population size (Ne). Both Ne and selection are indicators of population evolutionary processes: selection can...

  13. Malthus and Climate Change: Betting on a Stable Population

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, David L.; Kolstad, Charles D.

    1999-01-01

    A standard assumption in integrated assessment models of climate change is that population and productivity are growing, but at a decreasing rate. We explore the signifcance of the assumption of population and productivity growth for greenhouse gas abatement. After all, there has been no long run slow down in the growth of productivity over the past few centuries, and the rate of population growth has actually been increasing for the past 19 centuries. Even if either of these growth rates wer...

  14. Stable stroke occurrence despite incidence reduction in an aging population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorvaldsen, P; Davidsen, M; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    A stroke register was established at the Glostrup Population Studies in 1982 with the objective to monitor stroke occurrence in the population continuously during a 10-year period and contribute data to the WHO Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project. The pur......A stroke register was established at the Glostrup Population Studies in 1982 with the objective to monitor stroke occurrence in the population continuously during a 10-year period and contribute data to the WHO Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project...

  15. Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

    2017-07-01

    The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Stable stroke occurrence despite incidence reduction in an aging population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorvaldsen, P; Davidsen, M; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    A stroke register was established at the Glostrup Population Studies in 1982 with the objective to monitor stroke occurrence in the population continuously during a 10-year period and contribute data to the WHO Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project....... The purpose of the current analysis was to estimate temporal trends in stroke occurrence....

  17. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Phenotypic plasticity of body size in a temperate population of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Phenotypic plasticity was analysed after development at seven different constant temperatures, ranging from 12°C to 31°C. The three year samples exhibited similar reaction norms, suggesting a stable genetic architecture in the natural population. The whole sample (30 lines) was used to determine precisely the shape of ...

  19. Population size changes reshape genomic patterns of diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pool, John E; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    are unclear. We demonstrate that population size changes can greatly alter relative levels of X-linked and autosomal variation: population size reductions lead to particularly low X-linked diversity, whereas growth elevates X-linked relative to autosomal diversity. Genetic variation from a diverse array...... of taxa supports an important role for this effect in accounting for population differences in the ratio of X-linked to autosomal diversity. Consideration of this effect may improve the inference of population history and other evolutionary processes....

  20. The amount of DNA polymorphism when population size changes linearly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Takuya; Tajima, Fumio

    2017-09-12

    Population size is one of the main factors that determine the amount of DNA polymorphism. We examined a model under which the population size changed linearly. Because of the simplicity of this model, we could analytically obtain the expectation of nucleotide diversity, E(π), and the expectation of the amount of DNA polymorphism, E(θ), based on the number of segregating sites. The results suggest that E(π) is larger than E(θ) when the population size decreased and that E(π) is smaller than E(θ) when the population size increased. The expected time to the most recent common ancestor could also be obtained under this model.

  1. Hydrodynamics of multi-sized particles in stable regime of a swirling bed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miin, Chin Swee; Sulaiman, Shaharin Anwar; Raghavan, Vijay Raj; Heikal, Morgan Raymond; Naz, Muhammad Yasin [Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Perak (Malaysia)

    2015-11-15

    Using particle imaging velocimetry (PIV), we observed particle motion within the stable operating regime of a swirling fluidized bed with an annular blade distributor. This paper presents velocity profiles of particle flow in an effort to determine effects from blade angle, particle size and shape and bed weight on characteristics of a swirling fluidized bed. Generally, particle velocity increased with airflow rate and shallow bed height, but decreased with bed weight. A 3 .deg. increase in blade angle reduced particle velocity by approximately 18%. In addition, particle shape, size and bed weight affected various characteristics of the swirling regime. Swirling began soon after incipience in the form of a supra-linear curve, which is the characteristic of a swirling regime. The relationship between particle and gas velocities enabled us to predict heat and mass transfer rates between gas and particles.

  2. How to control chaotic behaviour and population size with proportional feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liz, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    We study the control of chaos in one-dimensional discrete maps as they often occur in modelling population dynamics. For managing the population, we seek to suppress any possible chaotic behavior, leading the system to a stable equilibrium. In this Letter, we make a rigorous analysis of the proportional feedback method under certain conditions fulfilled by a wide family of maps. We show that it is possible to stabilize the chaotic dynamics towards a globally stable positive equilibrium, that can be chosen among a broad range of possible values. In particular, the size of the population can be enhanced by control in form of population reduction. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the hydra effect, and it has important implications in the design of strategies in such areas as fishing, pest management, and conservation biology.

  3. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    RESEARCH ARTICLE. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila. LAURENCE D. MUELLER1∗, AMITABH JOSHI1,2, MARTA SANTOS1 and MICHAEL R. ROSE1. 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

  4. Estimating population size with correlated sampling unit estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Bowden; Gary C. White; Alan B. Franklin; Joseph L. Ganey

    2003-01-01

    Finite population sampling theory is useful in estimating total population size (abundance) from abundance estimates of each sampled unit (quadrat). We develop estimators that allow correlated quadrat abundance estimates, even for quadrats in different sampling strata. Correlated quadrat abundance estimates based on mark–recapture or distance sampling methods occur...

  5. Blue and Black Cloth Targets: Effects of Size, Shape, and Color on Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) Attraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogsette, Jerome A; Foil, Lane D

    2018-04-02

    Stable fly management is challenging because of the fly's dispersal behavior and its tendency to remain on the host only while feeding. Optically attractive traps have been used to survey and sometimes reduce adult populations. Insecticide-treated blue and black cloth targets developed for tsetse fly management in Africa were found to be attractive to stable flies in the United States, and various evaluations were conducted in Louisiana and Florida. Tests using untreated targets were designed to answer questions about configuration, size, and color relative to efficacy and stability in high winds. Studies with electric grid targets and with targets paired with Olson traps showed cloth target color attraction in the following decreasing order: black > blue-black > blue. A solid black target is easier to make than a blue-black target because no sewing is involved. Attraction was not affected when flat 1-m2 targets were formed into cylinders, despite the limited view of the blue and black colors together. There was no reduction in attraction when the 1-m2 cylindrical targets were compared with smaller (63 × 30 cm high) cylindrical targets. In addition, there was no difference in attraction between the small blue-black, blue, and black targets. Significance of findings and implications of potential uses for treated targets are discussed. Target attraction was indicated by the numbers of stable flies captured on an Olson sticky trap placed 30 cm from the target. Although this system is adequate for field research, it greatly underestimates the actual numbers of stable flies attracted to treated targets.

  6. Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

    2018-02-02

    Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Precipitation and temperature effects on stable fly (diptera: muscidae) population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The dynamics of stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), populations relative to temperature and precipitation were evaluated in a 13 y study in eastern Nebraska. During the course of the study, over 1.7 million stable flies were collected on an array of 25 sticky traps. A log-normal model using degree...

  8. Patch Size and Population Density: the Effect of Immigration Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Bowman

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Many habitat fragmentation experiments make the prediction that animal population density will be positively related to fragment, or patch, size. The mechanism that is supposed to result in this prediction is unclear, but several recent reviews have demonstrated that population density often is negatively related to patch size. Immigration behavior is likely to have an important effect on population density for species that do not show strong edge effects, for species that have low emigration rates, and during short-term habitat fragmentation experiments. We consider the effect that different kinds of immigration behaviors will have on population density and we demonstrate that only a minority of possible scenarios produce positive density vs. patch size relationships. More commonly, these relationships are expected to be negative. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering autecological mechanisms, such as immigration behavior, when developing the predictions that we test in habitat fragmentation or other experiments.

  9. Validation of insulin resistance indexes in a stable renal transplant population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oterdoom, LH; De Vries, APJ; Van Son, WJ; Van Der Heide, JJH; Ploeg, RJ; Gansevoort, RT; De Jong, PE; Gans, ROB; Bakker, SJL

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE - The purpose of this study was to investigate the validity of established insulin resistance indexes, based on fasting blood parameters, in a stable renal transplant population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Fasting insulin, homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), the quantitative insulin

  10. Validation of insulin resistance indexes in a stable renal transplant population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oterdoom, Leendert H.; de Vries, Aiko P. J.; van Son, Willem J.; Homan van der Heide, Jaap J.; Ploeg, Rutger J.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; de Jong, Paul E.; Gans, Rijk O. B.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the validity of established insulin resistance indexes, based on fasting blood parameters, in a stable renal transplant population. Fasting insulin, homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), and

  11. Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret Grimm

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

  12. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  13. Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

    2013-01-01

    Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

  14. Empty Niches after Extinctions Increase Population Sizes of Modern Corals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prada, Carlos; Hanna, Bishoy; Budd, Ann F; Woodley, Cheryl M; Schmutz, Jeremy; Grimwood, Jane; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto; Pandolfi, John M; Levitan, Don; Johnson, Kenneth G; Knowlton, Nancy; Kitano, Hiroaki; DeGiorgio, Michael; Medina, Mónica

    2016-12-05

    Large environmental fluctuations often cause mass extinctions, extirpating species and transforming communities [1, 2]. While the effects on community structure are evident in the fossil record, demographic consequences for populations of individual species are harder to evaluate because fossils reveal relative, but not absolute, abundances. However, genomic analyses of living species that have survived a mass extinction event offer the potential for understanding the demographic effects of such environmental fluctuations on extant species. Here, we show how environmental variation since the Pliocene has shaped demographic changes in extant corals of the genus Orbicella, major extant reef builders in the Caribbean that today are endangered. We use genomic approaches to estimate previously unknown current and past population sizes over the last 3 million years. Populations of all three Orbicella declined around 2-1 million years ago, coincident with the extinction of at least 50% of Caribbean coral species. The estimated changes in population size are consistent across the three species despite their ecological differences. Subsequently, two shallow-water specialists expanded their population sizes at least 2-fold, over a time that overlaps with the disappearance of their sister competitor species O. nancyi (the organ-pipe Orbicella). Our study suggests that populations of Orbicella species are capable of rebounding from reductions in population size under suitable conditions and that the effective population size of modern corals provides rich standing genetic variation for corals to adapt to climate change. For conservation genetics, our study suggests the need to evaluate genetic variation under appropriate demographic models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

    2008-01-01

    Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Cohort size and migration in a West Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brittain, A W

    1990-01-01

    The author examines the relationship between cohort size and migration patterns among the population of the French West Indies island of St. Barthelemy. Data show that "for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration rates only slowed after the development of the local tourist industry brought prosperity to the island." excerpt

  17. Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

  18. Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern Pacific gray whales: insights from ancient DNA and stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, S Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D; Palumbi, Stephen R

    2012-01-01

    Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ~5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.

  19. Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern Pacific gray whales: insights from ancient DNA and stable isotopes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Elizabeth Alter

    Full Text Available Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ~5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.

  20. Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Roos, A.M.; Persson, L.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and

  1. The Small Size Debris Population at GEO from Optical Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitzer, Patrick; Barker, Ed; Buckalew, Brent; Burkhardt, Andrew; Cowardin, Heather; Frith, James; Kaleida, Catherine; Lederer, Susan M.; Lee, Chris H.

    2017-01-01

    We have observed the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) debris population at sizes smaller than 10 cm using optical observations with the 6.5-m Magellan telescope 'Walter Baade' at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. The IMACS f/2 imaging camera with a 0.5-degree diameter field of view has been used in small area surveys of the GEO regime to study the population of optically faint GEO debris. The goal is to estimate the population of GEO debris that is fainter than can be studied with 1-meter class telescopes. A significant population of objects fainter than R = 19th magnitude has been found. These objects have observed with angular rates consistent with circular orbits and orbital inclinations up to 15 degrees at GEO. A sizeable number of these objects have significant brightness variations ("flashes") during the 5-second exposure, which suggest rapid changes in the albedo-projected size product.

  2. Coexistence of structured populations with size-based prey selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvig, Martin; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    on the maximum adult sizes and population size distributions. We explore the assembly and potential for coexistence of small communities where all species experience ontogenetic trophic niche shifts. The life-history of each species is described by a physiologically structured model and species identity...... is characterized by the trait: size at maturation. We show that a single species can exist in two different states: a ‘resource driven state’ and a ‘cannibalistic state’ with a large scope for emergent Allee effects and bistable states. Two species can coexist in two different configurations: in a ‘competitive...... coexistence’ state when the ratio between sizes at maturation of the two species is less than a predator–prey mass ratio and the resource level is low to intermediate, or in a ‘trophic ladder’ state if the ratio of sizes at maturation is larger than the predator–prey mass ratio at all resource levels. While...

  3. Stable fly population dynamics in eastern Nebraska in relation to climatic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, David B; Berkebile, Dennis R; Scholl, Philip J

    2007-09-01

    Stable flies, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), are among the most economically important arthropod pests of livestock in North America. In this study, we monitored the seasonal dynamics of a stable fly population in eastern Nebraska for 5 yr. Models based upon temperature and precipitation were developed to determine the affects of these variables on population levels as well as to project population trends. Stable flies appear in eastern Nebraska in late March to early April, and they build to a peak population during the last week of June and first week of July. In most years, the population decreases in midsummer, and then it increases to a second peak in mid-September. Temperature 0 to 2 wk before collection and precipitation 3 to 6 wk before collection were the most important weather variables accounting for 63 and 11% of the variation, respectively. Temperature 7 wk before collection was also significant, accounting for 3% of the variation. Reduced precipitation levels explained the observed midsummer drop in the stable fly populations. Changes in stable fly population levels were positively correlated with precipitation 1 to 2 wk prior and temperature the week of the change. Population change was negatively correlated with precipitation 6-8 wk prior and temperature 6-15 wk prior. The addition of the previous weeks trap collections to the climate based model eliminated the significance of temperature 2 and 7 wk before collection. Temperature 0-1 wk before collection accounted for 60% of the variation, precipitation 3 to 6 wk prior 12% of the variation, and the previous weeks' trap collections accounted for 11% of the variation. Low temperatures during October through January were correlated with higher stable fly populations the following June and July.

  4. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

  5. Adaptive evolution and effective population size in wild house mice

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Phifer-Rixey, M.; Bonhomme, F.; Boursot, P.; Churchill, G. A.; Piálek, Jaroslav; Tucker, P.; Nachman, M.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 10 (2012), s. 2949-2955 ISSN 0737-4038 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/08/0640 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : substitution * adaptation * evolution * effective population size * house mouse Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 10.353, year: 2012

  6. Estimating population size of Saddle-billed Storks Ephippiorhynchus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to estimate the population size within associated confidence limits using a modified mark–recapture field method. The vehicle survey, conducted shortly after rainfall in the area, did not produce results with known precision under these conditions. A repeat of this census in spring, after the peak ...

  7. Short communication Effective population size and inbreeding rate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    201010100

    2013-05-30

    May 30, 2013 ... Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management. Conservation Biology 25 (3), 438-449. Mapiye, C., Chimonyo, M., Muchenje, V., Dzama, K., Marufu, M.C. & Raats, J.G., 2007. Potential for value-addition of Nguni cattle products in the communal ...

  8. Effect of small mapping population sizes on reliability of quantitative ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A limitation of quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping is that accuracy of determining QTL position and effects are largely determined by population size. Despite the importance of this concept, known as the "Beavis effect there has generally been a lack of understanding by molecular geneticists and breeders. One possible ...

  9. The Relationship Between Population Size and Contracting Out Public Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foged, Søren Kjær

    2015-01-01

    streamlines public service production and saves taxpayers’ money. This article makes use of the 2007 Danish local government structural reform—when 239 municipalities were merged into 66 new entities while 29 municipalities remained untouched—as a quasi-experiment to explore the population size...

  10. Effect of population size on prospect of species survival

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 41, - (2006), s. 137-150 ISSN 1211-9520 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB6111303 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : population * size * survival Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.196, year: 2006

  11. Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

    2012-01-01

    The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

  12. Short communication: Effective population size and inbreeding rate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short communication: Effective population size and inbreeding rate of indigenous Nguni cattle under in situ conservation in the low-input communal production ... as not at risk of extinction, while the individual enterprises were classified as being endangered-maintained without the exchange of germ plasm among them.

  13. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion is too fast to be due to the de novo appearance of bene- ficial mutations. Likewise, the relatively similar .... lation size (Ne), which behaves in a similar fashion to N in the Wright–Fisher model. In some cases ... variation, giving the appearance that the population is smaller than traditional theory would suggest. In our ...

  14. Estimating the size of the homeless population in Budapest, Hungary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    David, B; Snijders, TAB

    In this study we try to estimate the size of the homeless population in Budapest by using two - non-standard - sampling methods: snowball sampling and capture-recapture method. Using two methods and three different data sets we are able to compare the methods as well as the results, and we also

  15. Acceptability of the Kalman filter to monitor pronghorn population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond L. Czaplewski

    1986-01-01

    Pronghorn antelope are important components of grassland and steppe ecosystems in Wyoming. Monitoring data on the size and population dynamics of these herds are expensive and gathered only a few times each year. Reliable data include estimates of animals harvested and proportion of bucks, does, and fawns. A deterministic simulation model has been used to improve...

  16. Generation time and effective population size in Polar Eskimos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Shuichi; Forster, Peter

    2008-01-01

    North Greenland Polar Eskimos are the only hunter–gatherer population, to our knowledge, who can offer precise genealogical records spanning several generations. This is the first report from Eskimos on two key parameters in population genetics, namely, generation time (T) and effective population size (Ne). The average mother–daughter and father–son intervals were 27 and 32 years, respectively, roughly similar to the previously published generation times obtained from recent agricultural societies across the world. To gain an insight for the generation time in our distant ancestors, we calculated maternal generation time for two wild chimpanzee populations. We also provide the first comparison among three distinct approaches (genealogy, variance and life table methods) for calculating Ne, which resulted in slightly differing values for the Eskimos. The ratio of the effective to the census population size is estimated as 0.6–0.7 for autosomal and X-chromosomal DNA, 0.7–0.9 for mitochondrial DNA and 0.5 for Y-chromosomal DNA. A simulation of alleles along the genealogy suggested that Y-chromosomal DNA may drift a little faster than mitochondrial DNA in this population, in contrast to agricultural Icelanders. Our values will be useful not only in prehistoric population inference but also in understanding the shaping of our genome today. PMID:18364314

  17. Population size dependence of fitness effect distribution and substitution rate probed by biophysical model of protein thermostability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The predicted effect of effective population size on the distribution of fitness effects and substitution rate is critically dependent on the relationship between sequence and fitness. This highlights the importance of using models that are informed by the molecular biology, biochemistry, and biophysics of the evolving systems. We describe a computational model based on fundamental aspects of biophysics, the requirement for (most) proteins to be thermodynamically stable. Using this model, we find that differences in population size have minimal impact on the distribution of population-scaled fitness effects, as well as on the rate of molecular evolution. This is because larger populations result in selection for more stable proteins that are less affected by mutations. This reduction in the magnitude of the fitness effects almost exactly cancels the greater selective pressure resulting from the larger population size. Conversely, changes in the population size in either direction cause transient increases in the substitution rate. As differences in population size often correspond to changes in population size, this makes comparisons of substitution rates in different lineages difficult to interpret.

  18. Population regulation in Magellanic penguins: what determines changes in colony size?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana M Pozzi

    Full Text Available Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north--which were established during the last decades--increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results

  19. The future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conrad Hackett

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: People who are religiously unaffiliated (including self-identifying atheists and agnostics, as well as those who say their religion is "nothing in particular" made up 16.4Š of the world's population in 2010. Unaffiliated populations have been growing in North America and Europe, leading some to expect that this group will grow as a share of the world's population. However, such forecasts overlook the impact of demographic factors, such as fertility and the large, aging unaffiliated population in Asia. Objective: We project the future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations around the world. Methods: We use multistate cohort-component methods to project the size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations. Projection inputs such as religious composition, differential fertility, and age structure data, as well as religious switching patterns, are based on the best available census and survey data for each country. This research is based on an analysis of more than 2,500 data sources. Results: Taking demographic factors into account, we project that the unaffiliated will make up 13.2Š of the world's population in 2050. The median age of religiously affiliated women is six years younger than unaffiliated women. The 2010-15 Total Fertility Rate for those with a religious affiliation is 2.59 children per woman, nearly a full child higher than the rate for the unaffiliated (1.65 children per woman. Conclusions: The religiously unaffiliated are projected to decline as a share of the world's population in the decades ahead because their net growth through religious switching will be more than offset by higher childbearing among the younger affiliated population.

  20. [Estimates of effective population size inPinus silvestris].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, K; Gregorius, H R

    1972-01-01

    The effective population size for inbreeding has been estimated in a 70 years old population of Scotch Pine in three consecutive years to be 0.46, 0.55 and 0.61 respectively of the actual total population. The following formula was developed to determine differences among trees as regards their male or female flowering and their "maleness" and "femaleness":[Formula: see text] wheren e is the total effective population size for inbreeding,n e ' the male effective part,n e ″ the female effective part, andM a measure for monoecy ranging in values between zero (dioecy) and unity (ideal monoecy). The degree of monoecy was 70, 82 and 78 percent respectively in the three years.Correlation between male flowering over the three years was fairly strong; the same was found for female flowering. But correlation between male and female flowering was weak, both within the same year and over the three year period. Correlation of numbers of female strobili and numbers of ripe cones was weak also.The population model on which the above formulae is based is that of a clonal 'Seed Orchard' where seedlings of several clones are randomly distributed on evenly spaced plots.

  1. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  2. Stable isotope analysis suggests the existence of multiple populations of streaked spinefoot (Siganus javus L. in Bandon Bay, Southern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuki Okamoto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The stock unit used in fisheries resource assessment and management is generally based on the morphological and genetic characteristics of a particular population or species to avert problems caused by the treatment of multiple populations as one stock, which can lead to the overestimation of population sizes and genetic pollution. Furthermore, since the linkage of microhabitats is an important factor affecting the reproduction of marine organisms in coastal areas, an understanding of the food web in each microhabitat is essential to establish sustainable fisheries management practices. We investigated spatial variations in the food sources and feeding habits of immature stage of Siganus javus using genetic population analyses and stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ15N. These species are commonly harvested by small-scale fisheries, and it inhabits Bandon Bay in the Surat Thani Province of Southern Thailand. Genetic variation within sampling sites was greater than that between sites. The δ13C values of S. javus differed between sites, which suggest that the different ecological habitats exhibit different rates and patterns of carbon flow even among sites located in the same bay. Our results suggest that studies combining genetic population analyses and stable isotope analyses are required to confirm the delineation of fine-scale management units intended for the development of coastal fishery resources.

  3. Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maltiel, Rachael; Raftery, Adrian E; McCormick, Tyler H; Baraff, Aaron J

    2015-09-01

    We develop methods for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations from data collected using network-based questions on standard surveys. Such data arise by asking respondents how many people they know in a specific group (e.g. people named Michael, intravenous drug users). The Network Scale up Method (NSUM) is a tool for producing population size estimates using these indirect measures of respondents' networks. Killworth et al. (1998a,b) proposed maximum likelihood estimators of population size for a fixed effects model in which respondents' degrees or personal network sizes are treated as fixed. We extend this by treating personal network sizes as random effects, yielding principled statements of uncertainty. This allows us to generalize the model to account for variation in people's propensity to know people in particular subgroups (barrier effects), such as their tendency to know people like themselves, as well as their lack of awareness of or reluctance to acknowledge their contacts' group memberships (transmission bias). NSUM estimates also suffer from recall bias, in which respondents tend to underestimate the number of members of larger groups that they know, and conversely for smaller groups. We propose a data-driven adjustment method to deal with this. Our methods perform well in simulation studies, generating improved estimates and calibrated uncertainty intervals, as well as in back estimates of real sample data. We apply them to data from a study of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Curitiba, Brazil. Our results show that when transmission bias is present, external information about its likely extent can greatly improve the estimates. The methods are implemented in the NSUM R package.

  4. Response to recurrent selection under small effective population size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souza Jr. Cláudio Lopes de

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A formula was derived for the prediction of the response to recurrent selection when the effective population size (Ne is small. Usually, responses to selection have been estimated by Rs = icsigma²A/sigmaPh, where i, c, sigma²A, and sigmaPh stand for standardized selection differential, parental control, additive variance, and phenotypic standard deviation, respectively. This expression, however, was derived under the assumption of infinite population size. By introducing the effects of finite population size, the expression derived was Rs = [ic(sigma²A + deltaFD1/sigmaPh] - DFID, where deltaF, ID and D1 are the changes in the inbreeding coefficient, the inbreeding depression, and the covariance of additive and homozygous dominance effects, respectively. Thus, the predicted responses to selection based on these expressions will be smaller than those based on the standard procedures for traits with a high level of dominance such as yield. Responses to five cycles of half-sib selection were predicted for maize by both expressions, considering that 100 progenies were evaluated and 10 S1 progenies were recombined, which corresponds to Ne = 10 for each cycle. The accumulated response to selection estimated with the new expression was about 47 and 28% smaller than that based on the standard expression for yield and plant height, respectively. Thus, the expression usually used overestimates the responses to selection, which is in agreement with reported results, because it does not take into account the effective population size that is generally small in recurrent selection programs

  5. The importance of meat, particularly salmon, to body size, population productivity, and conservation of North American brown bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    G.V. Hilderbrand; C.C. Schwartz; C.T. Robbins; M.E. Hanley Jacoby; S.M. Arthur; C. Servheen

    1999-01-01

    We hypothesized that the relative availability of meat, indicated by contribution to the diet, would be positively related to body size and population productivity of North American brown, or grizzly, bears (Ursus arctos). Dietary contributions of plant matter and meat derived from both terrestrial and marine sources were quantified by stable-...

  6. Population size of Aegla paulensis (Decapoda: Anomura: Aeglidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe P.A Cohen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We used the Schumacher-Eschmeyer method for closed populations to estimate and compare the population size of adults of Aeglapaulensis, from Jaraguá State Park (São Paulo, Brazil, in two periods of the year with contrasting climatic conditions (late winter and late summer. The calculated density of adult individuals was considerably higher in the summer (11.5 ind m-2 than in the winter (6.7 ind m-2. This density difference of adult individuals was attributed to variation in the population structure of coexisting cohorts of adults at each sampling season of the year, due to dissimilarities in the cumulative abundance of recruits that effectively become adults after puberty molt, and difference in longevity between sexes.

  7. Stillbirth rates in singleton pregnancies in a stable population at Karl ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To determine the changes in stillbirth rates in singleton pregnancies in a stable population over a period of 50 years. Methods. Stillbirth rates for ... stillbirths, neonatal deaths and deliveries, from which the stillbirth rates for fetuses ≥500 g ... from black residential areas have recently increased rapidly, the study was limited to ...

  8. Inferring the history of population size change from genome-wide SNP data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theunert, Christoph; Tang, Kun; Lachmann, Michael; Hu, Sile; Stoneking, Mark

    2012-12-01

    Dense, genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data can be used to reconstruct the demographic history of human populations. However, demographic inferences from such data are complicated by recombination and ascertainment bias. We introduce two new statistics, allele frequency-identity by descent (AF-IBD) and allele frequency-identity by state (AF-IBS), that make use of linkage disequilibrium information and show defined relationships to the time of coalescence. These statistics, when conditioned on the derived allele frequency, are able to infer complex population size changes. Moreover, the AF-IBS statistic, which is based on genome-wide SNP data, is robust to varying ascertainment conditions. We constructed an efficient approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) pipeline based on AF-IBD and AF-IBS that can accurately estimate demographic parameters, even for fairly complex models. Finally, we applied this ABC approach to genome-wide SNP data and inferred the demographic histories of two human populations, Yoruba and French. Our results suggest a rather stable ancestral population size with a mild recent expansion for Yoruba, whereas the French seemingly experienced a long-lasting severe bottleneck followed by a drastic population growth. This approach should prove useful for new insights into populations, especially those with complex demographic histories.

  9. Harvesting Renewable Resources of Population with Size Structure and Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang-Jun Xie

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to explore the optimal exploitation way for a biological resources model incorporating individual’s size difference and spatial effects. The existence of a unique nonnegative solution to the state system is shown by means of Banach’s fixed point theorem, and the continuous dependence of the population density with the harvesting effort is given. The optimal harvesting strategy is established via normal cone and adjoint system technique. Some conditions are found to assure that there is only one optimal policy.

  10. Pacific salmon and the coalescent effective population size.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Can Cenik

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Pacific salmon include several species that are both commercially important and endangered. Understanding the causes of loss in genetic variation is essential for designing better conservation strategies. Here we use a coalescent approach to analyze a model of the complex life history of salmon, and derive the coalescent effective population (CES. With the aid of Kronecker products and a convergence theorem for Markov chains with two time scales, we derive a simple formula for the CES and thereby establish its existence. Our results may be used to address important questions regarding salmon biology, in particular about the loss of genetic variation. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we consider the effects of fluctuations in population size over time. Our analysis enables the application of several tools of coalescent theory to the case of salmon.

  11. Sample size for monitoring sirex populations and their natural enemies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete do Rocio Chiarello Penteado

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The woodwasp Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Siricidae was introduced in Brazil in 1988 and became the main pest in pine plantations. It has spread to about 1.000.000 ha, at different population levels, in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Control is done mainly by using a nematode, Deladenus siricidicola Bedding (Nematoda: Neothylenchidae. The evaluation of the efficiency of natural enemies has been difficult because there are no appropriate sampling systems. This study tested a hierarchical sampling system to define the sample size to monitor the S. noctilio population and the efficiency of their natural enemies, which was found to be perfectly adequate.

  12. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  13. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  14. Sizing the star cluster population of the Large Magellanic Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatti, Andrés E.

    2018-04-01

    The number of star clusters that populate the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) at deprojected distances <4 deg has been recently found to be nearly double the known size of the system. Because of the unprecedented consequences of this outcome in our knowledge of the LMC cluster formation and dissolution histories, we closely revisited such a compilation of objects and found that only ˜35 per cent of the previously known catalogued clusters have been included. The remaining entries are likely related to stellar overdensities of the LMC composite star field, because there is a remarkable enhancement of objects with assigned ages older than log(t yr-1) ˜ 9.4, which contrasts with the existence of the LMC cluster age gap; the assumption of a cluster formation rate similar to that of the LMC star field does not help to conciliate so large amount of clusters either; and nearly 50 per cent of them come from cluster search procedures known to produce more than 90 per cent of false detections. The lack of further analyses to confirm the physical reality as genuine star clusters of the identified overdensities also glooms those results. We support that the actual size of the LMC main body cluster population is close to that previously known.

  15. Fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction: a new population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjessing, H K; Grøttum, P; Økland, I; Eik-Nes, S H

    2017-04-01

    To develop a complete, population-based system for ultrasound-based fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction for use in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Using 31 516 ultrasound examinations from a population-based Norwegian clinical database, we constructed fetal size charts for biparietal diameter, femur length and abdominal circumference from 24 to 42 weeks' gestation. A reference curve of median birth weight for gestational age was estimated using 45 037 birth weights. We determined how individual deviations from the expected ultrasound measures predicted individual percentage deviations from expected birth weight. The predictive quality was assessed by explained variance of birth weight and receiver-operating characteristics curves for prediction of small-for-gestational age. A curve for intrauterine estimated fetal weight was constructed. Charts were smoothed using the gamlss non-linear regression method. The population-based approach, using bias-free ultrasound gestational age, produces stable estimates of size-for-age and weight-for-age curves in the range 24-42 weeks' gestation. There is a close correspondence between percentage deviations and percentiles of birth weight by gestational age, making it easy to convert between the two. The variance of birth weight that can be 'explained' by ultrasound increases from 8% at 20 weeks up to 67% around term. Intrauterine estimated fetal weight is 0-106 g higher than median birth weight in the preterm period. The new population-based birth-weight prediction model provides a simple summary measure, the 'percentage birth-weight deviation', to be used for fetal size monitoring throughout the third trimester. Predictive quality of the model can be measured directly from the population data. The model computes both median observed birth weight and intrauterine estimated fetal weight. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John

  16. Effective population size and genetic structure of a Piute ground squirrel (Spermophilus mollis) population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antolin, Michael F.; Van Horne, Beatrice; Berger, Michael D.

    2001-01-01

    Piute ground squirrels (Spermophilus mollis) are distributed continuously in habitat dominated by native shrubs and perennial grasses in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in Idaho, U.S.A. This habitat is being fragmented and replaced by exotic annual plants, changing it to a wildfire-dominated system that provides poor habitat for ground squirrels. To assess potential effects of this fragmentation on ground squirrel populations, we combined an estimate of effective population size (Ne) based upon a demographic study with a population genetic analysis. The study area included three subpopulations separated from each other by 8–13 km. The ratio of effective population size to census number (Ne/N) was 0.57. Combining Ne/N with dispersal distances from a radio-tracking study, we calculated that neighborhood size was 62.2 ha, which included between 204 and 480 individuals. Our population genetic analysis (based on randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and microsatellite markers) showed relatively low levels of genetic differentiation (Qpopulations 0.07–0.10) between subpopulations and no inbreeding within subpopulations (f = 0.0003). These estimates of population subdivision translate into an effective migration rate (Nem) of 2.3–3.3 per year, which represents a high level of gene flow. Invasion by exotics will reduce the overall productivity of the habitat, and will lead to isolation among subpopulations if favorable habitat patches become isolated.

  17. Stable Size Distribution of Amyloid Plaques Over the Course of Alzheimer Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Pozo, Alberto; Mielke, Matthew L.; Muzitansky, Alona; Gómez-Isla, Teresa; Growdon, John H.; Bacskai, Brian J.; Betensky, Rebecca A.; Frosch, Matthew P.; Hyman, Bradley T.

    2012-01-01

    Amyloid-β plaques are a key pathological feature of Alzheimer disease (AD), but whether plaque sizes increase or stabilize over the course of AD is unknown. We measured the size distribution of total immunoreactive (10D5-positive) and dense-core (Thioflavine-S-positive) plaques in the temporal neocortex of a large group of AD and plaque-bearing age-matched non-demented subjects to test the hypothesis that amyloid plaques continue to grow along with the progression of the disease. The size of amyloid-β (10D5)-positive plaques did not differ between groups whereas dense-core plaques from the AD group were slightly larger than those in the non-demented group (~25%–30%, p = 0.01). Within the AD group, dense-core plaque size did not independently correlate with duration of clinical disease (from 4 to 21 years, p = 0.68), whereas 10D5-positive plaque size correlated negatively with disease duration (p = 0.01). By contrast, an earlier age of symptom onset strongly predicted a larger postmortem plaque size; this effect was independent of disease duration and the presence of the APOEε4 allele (p = 0.0001). We conclude that plaques vary in size among patients, with larger size distributions correlating with an earlier age of onset, but plaques do not substantially increase in size over the clinical course of the disease. PMID:22805771

  18. THE MASSIVE SATELLITE POPULATION OF MILKY-WAY-SIZED GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez-Puebla, Aldo; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Drory, Niv

    2013-01-01

    for the ΛCDM cosmology. However, we confirm that the maximum circular velocity, v max , of the subhalos of satellites smaller than m * ∼ 10 8 M ☉ is systematically larger than the v max inferred from current observational studies of the MW bright dwarf satellites; different from previous works, this conclusion is based on an analysis of the overall population of MW-sized galaxies. Some pieces of evidence suggest that the issue could refer only to satellite dwarfs but not to central dwarfs, then environmental processes associated with dwarfs inside host halos combined with supernova-driven core expansion should be on the basis of the lowering of v max

  19. Assessing pest control using changes in instantaneous rate of population increase: treated targets and stable fly populations case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford, D V; Sutcliffe, J F

    2010-06-01

    The instantaneous rate of population increase was used to assess the ability of attractive targets coated with permethrin to control stable fly populations on 3 dairy farms in south central Ontario, Canada. Two attractive targets were deployed over 10 wk in 2001 at each of 6 dairy farms. Three farms were outfitted with 2 untreated targets and 3 were outfitted with 2 targets treated with permethrin [Ectiban-impregnated Coroplast (Ectiban: Schering-Plough Canada Inc., Pointe-Claire, Québec, Canada; Coroplast: Great Pacific Enterprises Inc., Granby, Québec, Canada)]. Population growth rate was measured in terms of degree-days above a 10 degrees C developmental threshold (r(DD10)). The r(DD10) at the 3 treated dairy farms were significantly lower than r(DD10) at the 3 neighboring untreated dairy farms (mean r(DD10): treated=0.0088, untreated=0.013), but not in the previous year when targets were not installed (mean r(DD10): treated=0.012, untreated=0.015). This supports a long-term approach to management that lowers population growth rates in those regions where stable fly numbers increase exponentially from spring until winter, by shortening the period of economic impact of this pest. 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Age structure, changing demography and effective population size in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palstra, Friso P; O'Connell, Michael F; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2009-08-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a central evolutionary concept, but its genetic estimation can be significantly complicated by age structure. Here we investigate N(e) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations that have undergone changes in demography and population dynamics, applying four different genetic estimators. For this purpose we use genetic data (14 microsatellite markers) from archived scale samples collected between 1951 and 2004. Through life table simulations we assess the genetic consequences of life history variation on N(e). Although variation in reproductive contribution by mature parr affects age structure, we find that its effect on N(e) estimation may be relatively minor. A comparison of estimator models suggests that even low iteroparity may upwardly bias N(e) estimates when ignored (semelparity assumed) and should thus empirically be accounted for. Our results indicate that N(e) may have changed over time in relatively small populations, but otherwise remained stable. Our ability to detect changes in N(e) in larger populations was, however, likely hindered by sampling limitations. An evaluation of N(e) estimates in a demographic context suggests that life history diversity, density-dependent factors, and metapopulation dynamics may all affect the genetic stability of these populations.

  1. Population Dynamics of Stable Flies Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) at an Organic Dairy Farm in Denmark based on a Mark-recapture with Destructive Sub-Sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård, H.; Nachman, G.

    2012-01-01

    of a modified version of Bailey's triple catch method. In both years, the abundance of flies peaked in July. Using a statistical model, we were able to explain 86.6% of the variation in the per capita growth rate r as a function of current temperature, precipitation, and population size. Omitting precipitation......A population of stable flies, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), was studied on a Danish cattle farm in two successive years. Flies were captured monthly by sweep nettings and marked with fluorescent dust. Absolute population size, dilution rate, loss rate, and adult longevity were estimated by means......-1. The per capita dilution rate increased with temperature and decreased with population size, whereas no effect of these factors on the per capita loss rate could be shown. Mean adult survival time was estimated to 6.3 d with 95% CL ranging from 4.3 to 11.1 d. The study points at the possibility...

  2. Stable isotopes indicate population structuring in the southwest Atlantic population of right whales (Eubalaena australis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgana Vighi

    Full Text Available From the early 17th century to the 1970s southern right whales, Eubalaena australis, were subject to intense exploitation along the Atlantic coast of South America. Catches along this coast recorded by whalers originally formed a continuum from Brazil to Tierra del Fuego. Nevertheless, the recovery of the population has apparently occurred fragmentarily, and with two main areas of concentration, one off southern Brazil (Santa Catarina and another off central Argentina (Peninsula Valdés. This pattern suggests some level of heterogeneity amongst the population, which is apparently contradicted by records that traced individuals moving throughout the whole geographical extension covered by the species in the Southwest Atlantic. To test the hypothesis of the potential occurrence of discrete subpopulations exploiting specific habitats, we investigated N, C and O isotopic values in 125 bone samples obtained from whaling factories operating in the early 1970s in southern Brazil (n=72 and from contemporary and more recent strandings occurring in central Argentina (n=53. Results indicated significant differences between the two sampling areas, being δ13C and δ18O values significantly higher in samples from southern Brazil than in those from central Argentina. This variation was consistent with isotopic baselines from the two areas, indicating the occurrence of some level of structure in the Southwest Atlantic right whale population and equally that whales more likely feed in areas commonly thought to exclusively serve as nursing grounds. Results aim at reconsidering of the units currently used in the management of the southern right whale in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. In the context of the current die-off affecting the species in Peninsula Valdés, these results also highlight the necessity to better understand movements of individuals and precisely identify their feeding areas.

  3. Stable isotopes indicate population structuring in the southwest Atlantic population of right whales (Eubalaena australis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vighi, Morgana; Borrell, Asunción; Crespo, Enrique A; Oliveira, Larissa R; Simões-Lopes, Paulo C; Flores, Paulo A C; García, Néstor A; Aguilar, Alex; Aguilar, Alejandro

    2014-01-01

    From the early 17th century to the 1970s southern right whales, Eubalaena australis, were subject to intense exploitation along the Atlantic coast of South America. Catches along this coast recorded by whalers originally formed a continuum from Brazil to Tierra del Fuego. Nevertheless, the recovery of the population has apparently occurred fragmentarily, and with two main areas of concentration, one off southern Brazil (Santa Catarina) and another off central Argentina (Peninsula Valdés). This pattern suggests some level of heterogeneity amongst the population, which is apparently contradicted by records that traced individuals moving throughout the whole geographical extension covered by the species in the Southwest Atlantic. To test the hypothesis of the potential occurrence of discrete subpopulations exploiting specific habitats, we investigated N, C and O isotopic values in 125 bone samples obtained from whaling factories operating in the early 1970s in southern Brazil (n=72) and from contemporary and more recent strandings occurring in central Argentina (n=53). Results indicated significant differences between the two sampling areas, being δ13C and δ18O values significantly higher in samples from southern Brazil than in those from central Argentina. This variation was consistent with isotopic baselines from the two areas, indicating the occurrence of some level of structure in the Southwest Atlantic right whale population and equally that whales more likely feed in areas commonly thought to exclusively serve as nursing grounds. Results aim at reconsidering of the units currently used in the management of the southern right whale in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. In the context of the current die-off affecting the species in Peninsula Valdés, these results also highlight the necessity to better understand movements of individuals and precisely identify their feeding areas.

  4. Simpler grammar, larger vocabulary: How population size affects language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reali, Florencia; Chater, Nick; Christiansen, Morten H

    2018-01-31

    Languages with many speakers tend to be structurally simple while small communities sometimes develop languages with great structural complexity. Paradoxically, the opposite pattern appears to be observed for non-structural properties of language such as vocabulary size. These apparently opposite patterns pose a challenge for theories of language change and evolution. We use computational simulations to show that this inverse pattern can depend on a single factor: ease of diffusion through the population. A population of interacting agents was arranged on a network, passing linguistic conventions to one another along network links. Agents can invent new conventions, or replicate conventions that they have previously generated themselves or learned from other agents. Linguistic conventions are either Easy or Hard to diffuse, depending on how many times an agent needs to encounter a convention to learn it. In large groups, only linguistic conventions that are easy to learn, such as words, tend to proliferate, whereas small groups where everyone talks to everyone else allow for more complex conventions, like grammatical regularities, to be maintained. Our simulations thus suggest that language, and possibly other aspects of culture, may become simpler at the structural level as our world becomes increasingly interconnected. © 2018 The Author(s).

  5. Fast, accurate and stable scattering calculation method with application to finite sized photonic crystal waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Philip Trøst; Lodahl, Peter; Mørk, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    We present a multipole solution to the Lippmann-Schwinger equation for electromagnetic scattering in inhomogeneous geometries. The method is illustrated by calculating the Green’s function for a finite sized two-dimensional photonic crystal waveguide.......We present a multipole solution to the Lippmann-Schwinger equation for electromagnetic scattering in inhomogeneous geometries. The method is illustrated by calculating the Green’s function for a finite sized two-dimensional photonic crystal waveguide....

  6. Population-Level Metrics of Trophic Structure Based on Stable Isotopes and Their Application to Invasion Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Michelle C.; Donohue, Ian; Jackson, Andrew L.; Britton, J. Robert; Harper, David M.; Grey, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Biological invasions are a significant driver of human-induced global change and many ecosystems sustain sympatric invaders. Interactions occurring among these invaders have important implications for ecosystem structure and functioning, yet they are poorly understood. Here we apply newly developed metrics derived from stable isotope data to provide quantitative measures of trophic diversity within populations or species. We then use these to test the hypothesis that sympatric invaders belonging to the same functional feeding group occupy a smaller isotopic niche than their allopatric counterparts. Two introduced, globally important, benthic omnivores, Louisiana swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and carp (Cyprinus carpio), are sympatric in Lake Naivasha, Kenya. We applied our metrics to an 8-year data set encompassing the establishment of carp in the lake. We found a strong asymmetric interaction between the two invasive populations, as indicated by inverse correlations between carp abundance and measures of crayfish trophic diversity. Lack of isotopic niche overlap between carp and crayfish in the majority of years indicated a predominantly indirect interaction. We suggest that carp-induced habitat alteration reduced the diversity of crayfish prey, resulting in a reduction in the dietary niche of crayfish. Stable isotopes provide an integrated signal of diet over space and time, offering an appropriate scale for the study of population niches, but few isotope studies have retained the often insightful information revealed by variability among individuals in isotope values. Our population metrics incorporate such variation, are robust to the vagaries of sample size and are a useful additional tool to reveal subtle dietary interactions among species. Although we have demonstrated their applicability specifically using a detailed temporal dataset of species invasion in a lake, they have a wide array of potential ecological applications. PMID:22363724

  7. Population size dependence of fitness effect distribution and substitution rate probed by biophysical model of protein thermostability

    OpenAIRE

    Goldstein, R. A.

    2013-01-01

    The predicted effect of effective population size on the distribution of fitness effects and substitution rate is critically dependent on the relationship between sequence and fitness. This highlights the importance of using models that are informed by the molecular biology, biochemistry, and biophysics of the evolving systems. We describe a computational model based on fundamental aspects of biophysics, the requirement for (most) proteins to be thermodynamically stable. Using this model, we ...

  8. Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubberud, Marlene Waege; Myhre, Ane Marlene; Holand, Håkon; Kvalnes, Thomas; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Jensen, Henrik

    2017-05-01

    The ratio between the effective and the census population size, Ne/N, is an important measure of the long-term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect Ne/N most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine Ne/N. Using the global variance-based Sobol' method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that Ne/N was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex-age classes that Ne/N is most sensitive to may change accordingly. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schultz, Stewart T.

    2004-01-01

    Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite–host or predator–prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii) – senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre–adult survival of the pollinating seed–consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

  10. Population size and incidence of virus infection in free-living populations of Cucurbita pepo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quemada, Hector; Strehlow, Laura; Decker-Walters, Deena S; Staub, Jack E

    2008-01-01

    Impact assessments of virus resistance transgene introgression into wild, free-living populations are important for determining whether these transgenes present a risk to agriculture or the environment. Transgenic virus-resistant Cucurbita pepo ssp. ovifera var. ovifera L. (squash) cultivars have been commercialized, and may be cultivated in close proximity to cross-compatible wild, free-living relatives (C. pepo subsp. pepo vars. ozarkana and texana). Therefore, the potential impact of these virus resistance transgenes was studied by surveying the incidence and fluctuations of virus infection (as assayed by ELISA), virus symptoms (which may not be seen in an infected plant) and population size in forty-three free-living C. pepo populations in Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. Ten of these populations were studied over three consecutive seasons. Depending on the year, 61% to 78% percent of the populations had at least one individual infected by at CMV, ZYMV or WMV2, but the median incidence of infection within populations was 13%. The observed infection level in free-living populations was consistent with levels defined as "low" in field plot experiments conducted by others, leading to the conclusion that transgenic virus resistance should not provide a significant fitness advantage to the free-living populations examined. Viral symptoms were detected in only 2% of plants observed, indicating that severity of viral infection was low. CMV, ZYMV, and WMV2 were not the only viruses infecting these populations, further reducing the likelihood that resistance to these viruses would release populations from constraints imposed by virus diseases.

  11. Stable isotopes provide insight into population structure and segregation in eastern North Atlantic sperm whales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borrell, Asunción; Velásquez Vacca, Adriana; Pinela, Ana M.

    2013-01-01

    highly mobile, shows indication of structuring in the eastern North Atlantic, an ocean basin in which a single population is believed to occur. To do so, we examined stable isotope values in sequential growth layer groups of teeth from individuals sampled in Denmark and NW Spain. In each layer we...... measured oxygen-isotope ratios (delta O-18) in the inorganic component (hydroxyapatite), and nitrogen and carbon isotope ratios (delta N-15: delta C-13) in the organic component (primarily collagenous). We found significant differences between Denmark and NW Spain in delta N-15 and delta O-18 values...

  12. The impact of size-dependent predation on population dynamcis and individual life history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessen, D.; van Oss, C.; de Roos, A.M.; Persson, L.

    2002-01-01

    In size-structured predator-prey systems, capture success depends on the sizes of both predator and prey. We study the population-dynamic consequences of size-dependent predation using a model of a size-structured, cannibalistic fish population with one shared, alternative resource. We assume that a

  13. Precipitation and Temperature Effects on Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, David B; Friesen, Kristina; Zhu, Jerry

    2017-06-01

    The dynamics of stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), populations relative to temperature and precipitation were evaluated in a 13-yr study in eastern Nebraska. During the course of the study, >1.7 million stable flies were collected on an array of 25 sticky traps. A log-normal model using degree-days with a 15 °C threshold and weekly lags 0-4 for temperature and 2-7 for precipitation provided the best fit with the observed data. The relationships of temperature and precipitation to stable fly trap catches were both curvilinear, with maxima at 6.6 degree-day-15 (≈22 °C) and 7.4 mm precipitation per day, respectively. The temperature and precipitation model accounted for 72% of the variance in seasonal trap catches. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  14. Estimation of the effective population size (Ne) and its application in the management of small populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen

    2016-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept to understand the evolution of a population. In conservation, Ne is used to assess the threat status of a population, evaluate its genetic viability in the future and set conservation priorities. An accurate estimation of Ne is thus essential....... The main objective of this thesis was to better understand how the estimation of Ne using molecular markers can be improved for use in conservation genetics. As a first step, we undertook a simulation study where three different methods to estimate Ne were investigated. We explored how well these three...... methods performed under different scenarios. This study showed that all three methods performed better when the number of unlinked loci used to make the estimation increased and the minimum number of loci need for an accurate estimation of Ne was 100 SNPs. A general assumption in the estimation of Ne...

  15. Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: lessons from a domestic mammal population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Ghafouri-Kesbi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, Ne, as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f e, effective number of founder genomes, f g, and effective number of non-founder genomes, f ne. Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that Ne decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f e was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f e was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f g, the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD which was obtained from estimates of f g,decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f ne from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f e to f g indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f ne was much higher than f e, thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f e> f ne. The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.

  16. Passing through the renal clearance barrier: toward ultrasmall sizes with stable ligands for potential clinical applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang XD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Xiao-Dong Zhang,1 Jiang Yang,2 Sha-Sha Song,1 Wei Long,1 Jie Chen,1 Xiu Shen,1 Hao Wang,1 Yuan-Ming Sun,1 Pei-Xun Liu,1 Saijun Fan11Tianjin Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Institute of Radiation Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China; 2Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USAAbstract: The use of nanoparticles holds promise for medical applications, such as X-ray imaging, photothermal therapy and radiotherapy. However, the in vivo toxicity of inorganic nanoparticles raises some concern regarding undesirable side effects which prevent their further medical application. Ultrasmall sub-5.5 nm particles can pass through the barrier for renal clearance, minimizing their toxicity. In this letter we address some recent interesting work regarding in vivo toxicity and renal clearance, and discuss the possible strategy of utilizing ultrasmall nanomaterials. We propose that small hydrodynamic sized nanoclusters can achieve both nontoxic and therapeutic clinical features.Keywords: in vivo clearance, gold nanoparticles, small size

  17. Smaller Fixation Target Size Is Associated with More Stable Fixation and Less Variance in Threshold Sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazunori Hirasawa

    Full Text Available The aims of this randomized observational case control study were to quantify fixation behavior during standard automated perimetry (SAP with different fixation targets and to evaluate the relationship between fixation behavior and threshold variability at each test point in healthy young participants experienced with perimetry. SAP was performed on the right eyes of 29 participants using the Octopus 900 perimeter, program 32, dynamic strategy. The fixation targets of Point, Cross, and Ring were used for SAP. Fixation behavior was recorded using a wearable eye-tracking glass. All participants underwent SAP twice with each fixation target in a random fashion. Fixation behavior was quantified by calculating the bivariate contour ellipse area (BCEA and the frequency of deviation from the fixation target. The BCEAs (deg2 of Point, Cross, and Ring targets were 1.11, 1.46, and 2.02, respectively. In all cases, BCEA increased significantly with increasing fixation target size (p < 0.05. The logarithmic value of BCEA demonstrated the same tendency (p < 0.05. A positive correlation was identified between fixation behavior and threshold variability for the Point and Cross targets (ρ = 0.413-0.534, p < 0.05. Fixation behavior increased with increasing fixation target size. Moreover, a larger fixation behavior tended to be associated with a higher threshold variability. A small fixation target is recommended during the visual field test.

  18. Mercury Stable Isotopes Discriminate Different Populations of European Seabass and Trace Potential Hg Sources around Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cransveld, Alice; Amouroux, David; Tessier, Emmanuel; Koutrakis, Emmanuil; Ozturk, Ayaka A; Bettoso, Nicola; Mieiro, Cláudia L; Bérail, Sylvain; Barre, Julien P G; Sturaro, Nicolas; Schnitzler, Joseph; Das, Krishna

    2017-11-07

    Our study reports the first data on mercury (Hg) isotope composition in marine European fish, for seven distinct populations of the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax. The use of δ 202 Hg and Δ 199 Hg values in SIBER enabled us to estimate Hg isotopic niches, successfully discriminating several populations. Recursive-partitioning analyses demonstrated the relevance of Hg stable isotopes as discriminating tools. Hg isotopic values also provided insight on Hg contamination sources for biota in coastal environment. The overall narrow range of δ 202 Hg around Europe was suggested to be related to a global atmospheric contamination while δ 202 Hg at some sites was linked either to background contamination, or with local contamination sources. Δ 199 Hg was related to Hg levels of fish but we also suggest a relation with ecological conditions. Throughout this study, results from the Black Sea population stood out, displaying a Hg cycling similar to fresh water lakes. Our findings bring out the possibility to use Hg isotopes in order to discriminate distinct populations, to explore the Hg cycle on a large scale (Europe) and to distinguish sites contaminated by global versus local Hg source. The interest of using Hg sable isotopes to investigate the whole European Hg cycle is clearly highlighted.

  19. Population size and natural history of Mariana fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) on Sarigan, Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiles, G.J.; Jonhson, N.C.

    2004-01-01

    Based on count results, we estimated the population of Mariana fruit bats (Pteropus mariannus Desmarest) on Sarigan, Mariana Islands, to number 150-200 bats in 1999, 185-235 bats in 2000, and about 300-400 bats in 2001. Our results, plus those of two previous surveys, indicate that bat abundance on the island probably remained relatively stable at about 125-235 animals during much of the period from 1983 to 2000, then increased suddenly in 2001, most likely due to immigration from a neighboring island. Sarigan's population differs from those of larger islands in the archipelago by usually having smaller roost sizes, typically 3-75 bats, and large numbers of solitary bats that at times comprise up to half of the population. Colonies and smaller aggregations were composed primarily of harems with multiple females, whereas a nearly equal sex ratio occurred among solitary animals. Colonies roosted in isolated coconut trees in open grasslands and in native forest stands of various sizes, but avoided dense coconut forest. An estimated 30-50% of harem and solitary females possessed young in July 1999. Bats were recorded feeding on just six species of plants, which partly reflects the island's impoverished flora. We speculate that fruit bat abundance on Sarigan is limited primarily by food availability rather than hunting losses, in contrast to some other islands in the Marianas. Our study supports the contention that populations of P. mariannus in the northern Marianas are usually sedentary, but that interisland movements of larger numbers of bats may occur rarely. ?? 2004 by University of Hawai'i Press All rights reserved.

  20. Stable water isotopologue ratios in fog and cloud droplets of liquid clouds are not size-dependent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegel, J.K.; Aemisegger, F.; Scholl, M.; Wienhold, F.G.; Collett, J.L.; Lee, T.; van Pinxteren, D.; Mertes, S.; Tilgner, A.; Herrmann, H.; Werner, Roland A.; Buchmann, N.; Eugster, W.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we present the first observations of stable water isotopologue ratios in cloud droplets of different sizes collected simultaneously. We address the question whether the isotope ratio of droplets in a liquid cloud varies as a function of droplet size. Samples were collected from a ground intercepted cloud (= fog) during the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 campaign (HCCT-2010) using a three-stage Caltech Active Strand Cloud water Collector (CASCC). An instrument test revealed that no artificial isotopic fractionation occurs during sample collection with the CASCC. Furthermore, we could experimentally confirm the hypothesis that the δ values of cloud droplets of the relevant droplet sizes (μm-range) were not significantly different and thus can be assumed to be in isotopic equilibrium immediately with the surrounding water vapor. However, during the dissolution period of the cloud, when the supersaturation inside the cloud decreased and the cloud began to clear, differences in isotope ratios of the different droplet sizes tended to be larger. This is likely to result from the cloud's heterogeneity, implying that larger and smaller cloud droplets have been collected at different moments in time, delivering isotope ratios from different collection times.

  1. Stable water isotopologue ratios in fog and cloud droplets of liquid clouds are not size-dependent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Spiegel

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the first observations of stable water isotopologue ratios in cloud droplets of different sizes collected simultaneously. We address the question whether the isotope ratio of droplets in a liquid cloud varies as a function of droplet size. Samples were collected from a ground intercepted cloud (= fog during the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 campaign (HCCT-2010 using a three-stage Caltech Active Strand Cloud water Collector (CASCC. An instrument test revealed that no artificial isotopic fractionation occurs during sample collection with the CASCC. Furthermore, we could experimentally confirm the hypothesis that the δ values of cloud droplets of the relevant droplet sizes (μm-range were not significantly different and thus can be assumed to be in isotopic equilibrium immediately with the surrounding water vapor. However, during the dissolution period of the cloud, when the supersaturation inside the cloud decreased and the cloud began to clear, differences in isotope ratios of the different droplet sizes tended to be larger. This is likely to result from the cloud's heterogeneity, implying that larger and smaller cloud droplets have been collected at different moments in time, delivering isotope ratios from different collection times.

  2. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khulekhani Sedwell Khanyile

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterised and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population’s genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n =146, Malawi (n =30 and Zimbabwe (n =136 were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29-0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK and 0.24 (VD at SNP marker interval of 500kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective population

  3. Founding population size of an aquatic invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinowski, Steven T.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; Benjamin Cox,

    2010-01-01

    Non-native species of fish threaten native fishes throughout North America, and in the Rocky Mountains, introduced populations of lake trout threaten native populations of bull trout. Effective management of lake trout and other exotic species require understanding the dynamics of invasion in order to either suppress non-native populations or to prevent their spread. In this study, we used microsatellite genetic data to estimate the number of lake trout that invaded a population of bull trout in Swan Lake, MT. Examination of genetic diversity and allele frequencies within the Swan Lake populations showed that most of the genes in the lake trout population are descended from two founders. This emphasizes the importance of preventing even a few lake trout from colonizing new territory.

  4. The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deangelis, Donald L; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Lou, Yuan; Jiang, Yuexin; Novak, Mark; Svanbäck, Richard; Araújo, Márcio S; Jo, Youngseung; Cleary, Erin A

    2011-07-01

    A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed.

  5. Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauter, Claudia M.

    2010-01-01

    This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

  6. Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: Lessons from a domestic mammal population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafouri-Kesbi, Farhad

    2010-10-01

    The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, N(e) ), as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f(e) , effective number of founder genomes, f(g) , and effective number of non-founder genomes, f(ne) ). Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that N(e) decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f(e) was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f(e) was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f(g) , the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD) which was obtained from estimates of f(g) , decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f(ne) from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f(e) to f(g) indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f(ne) was much higher than f(e) , thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f(e) > f(ne) . The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.

  7. Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

    2010-01-01

    Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

  8. Population size, habitat fragmentation, and the nature of adaptive variation in a stream fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Dylan J; Debes, Paul V; Bernatchez, Louis; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-09-07

    Whether and how habitat fragmentation and population size jointly affect adaptive genetic variation and adaptive population differentiation are largely unexplored. Owing to pronounced genetic drift, small, fragmented populations are thought to exhibit reduced adaptive genetic variation relative to large populations. Yet fragmentation is known to increase variability within and among habitats as population size decreases. Such variability might instead favour the maintenance of adaptive polymorphisms and/or generate more variability in adaptive differentiation at smaller population size. We investigated these alternative hypotheses by analysing coding-gene, single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with different biological functions in fragmented brook trout populations of variable sizes. Putative adaptive differentiation was greater between small and large populations or among small populations than among large populations. These trends were stronger for genetic population size measures than demographic ones and were present despite pronounced drift in small populations. Our results suggest that fragmentation affects natural selection and that the changes elicited in the adaptive genetic composition and differentiation of fragmented populations vary with population size. By generating more variable evolutionary responses, the alteration of selective pressures during habitat fragmentation may affect future population persistence independently of, and perhaps long before, the effects of demographic and genetic stochasticity are manifest. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  9. Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

    2017-09-14

    While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

  10. Size-related and seasonal diet of the manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum), as determined using dual stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Yeon Jee; Shin, Kyung-Hoon

    2013-12-01

    Stable isotope ratios of lab-cultured Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) and those from natural tidal flats of Seonjae Island in Korea were investigated in terms of their dietary uptake patterns in relation to body size and season. The smallest size group of wild Manila clams revealed significantly depleted δ15N based on the results of a one-way ANOVA. There was significant seasonal change in the proportional contribution of food sources, especially in winter, from benthic particulate organic matter (BPOM) to pelagic particulate organic matter (POM). Laboratory-cultured Manila clams showed growth rates of 6.02-37.75 mm/yr, and smaller-sized clams did not fully utilise the microalgal diets that were provided constantly. Instead, they derived most of their energy from detritus or dead microalgae that had settled on the bottom. Bigger clams, however, exhibited well-balanced source contributions, converting the microalgal diets into biomass. This demonstrates intra-specific differences in the growth rates and preferred diet uptakes of Manila clams, even under similar environmental conditions.

  11. Differences in food assimilation between two coot species assessed with stable isotopes and particle size in faeces: linking physiology and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varo, Nico; Amat, Juan A

    2008-02-01

    The red-knobbed coot Fulica cristata experienced a dramatic population decline in Spain, where the common coot F. atra does not face conservation problems. This is puzzling because both species have similar ecologies. It has been suggested that habitat alterations affected the quality of food plants, and this impacted differentially both coots. To verify this, we conducted experiments to determine the assimilation efficiency of both species in relation to food quality. Two types of diets differing in fibre content (commercial food and Potamogeton pectinatus) were offered to captive red-knobbed and common coots, during both spring and autumn. We examined variations in faecal particle size among coot species and diets, indicative of the facility with which food can be assimilated, and used the stable isotope technique to study differences between coot species in stable isotope fractionations from consumption to excretion. Faecal particle size was larger in red-knobbed than in common coots when fibre content was high, but was similar when it was low. Faecal particle sizes were larger in autumn, when fibre content was higher, than in spring. In general, delta(15)N in faeces of red-knobbed coots was greater than in faeces of common coots. These results suggest that the digestive efficiency of the red-knobbed coot was lower than that of the common coot, and that the differences increased when the fibre content in food plants increased. Managers should try to make available to coots wetland habitat with high quality food, which may be facilitated by prolonging the hydroperiods.

  12. Preliminary estimates of population size and capture rates of mature ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1997-06-06

    . berda population caught annually. However, there is no evidence from available catch per unit effort (CPUE) data that current levels of harvesting of A. ..... Gerrcidae (Teleostei) in the Kosi system, with special reference to.

  13. Noise-Induced Transitions in a Population Growth Model Based on Size-Dependent Carrying Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeme Lumi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model with size-dependent carrying capacity is considered. The effect of a fluctuating environment on population growth is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. At intermediate values of population size the deterministic counterpart of the model behaves similarly to the Von Foerster model for human population, but at small and very large values of population size substantial differences occur. In the stochastic case, an exact analytical solution for the stationary probability distribution is found. It is established that variation of noise correlation time can cause noise-induced transitions between three different states of the system characterized by qualitatively different behaviors of the probability distributions of the population size. Also, it is shown that, in some regions of the system parameters, variation of the amplitude of environmental fluctuations can induce single unidirectional abrupt transitions of the mean population size.

  14. Phenotypic plasticity of body size in a temperate population of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ture, however, wild-collected flies show a large phenotypic variance in size, implying a ... bigger in the cold (Partridge and Coyne 1997; Pétavy et al. 1997; Bochdanovits and ..... One is to consider the whole matrix of isofemale lines data, corresponding to 210 mean values (30 lines × 7 temperatures). The other is to consider ...

  15. Cohort Size and Migration in a West Indian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brittain, Ann W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from St. Barthelemy (French West Indies) show that, for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration slowed only after development of local tourism brought prosperity to the island. (AF)

  16. Current distribution and population size of the Blue Swallow Hirundo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two surveys of Blue Swallows were conducted in the southern Tanzanian highland grasslands in order to determine the habitat preferences and estimate the size of this subpopulation. During the 2008/09 and 2012 surveys, a total distance of 3 635 km was travelled in search of Blue Swallows (at an altitude of above 1 400 ...

  17. Tracing Water Sources of Terrestrial Animal Populations with Stable Isotopes: Laboratory Tests with Crickets and Spiders

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluney, Kevin E.; Sabo, John L.

    2010-01-01

    Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the “water web”). Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change. PMID:21209877

  18. Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

    1987-01-01

    An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

  19. Food web framework for size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvig, Martin; Andersen, Ken Haste; Beyer, Jan

    2011-01-01

    We synthesise traditional unstructured food webs, allometric body size scaling, trait-based modelling, and physiologically structured modelling to provide a novel and ecologically relevant tool for size-structured food webs. The framework allows food web models to include ontogenetic growth....... Parameter values are determined from cross-species analysis of fish communities as life-history omnivory is widespread in aquatic systems, but may be reparameterised for other systems. An ensemble of food webs is generated and the resulting communities are analysed at four levels of organisation: community...... level, species level, trait level, and individual level. The model may be solved analytically by assuming that the community spectrum follows a power law. The analytical solution provides a baseline expectation of the results of complex food web simulations, and agrees well with the predictions...

  20. Effects of population size on virus evolution: a baculovirus perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwart, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis explores the population genetics of the baculovirus infection process and the consequences for virus evolution. Using Autographa californica multicapsid nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV) and lepidopteran insect larvae as a model system, we attempt to characterize (1) elemental virus-host and

  1. Population size of snowy plovers breeding in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Susan M.; Lyons, James E.; Andres, Brad A.; T-Smith, Elise Elliot; Palacios, Eduardo; Cavitt, John F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Fellows, Suzanne D.; Maty, Kendra; Howe, William H.; Mellink, Eric; Melvin, Stefani; Zimmerman, Tara

    2012-01-01

    Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) may be one of the rarest shorebirds in North America yet a comprehensive assessment of their abundance and distribution has not been completed. During 2007 and 2008, 557 discrete wetlands were surveyed and nine additional large wetland complexes sampled in México and the USA. From these surveys, a population of 23,555 (95% CI = 17,299 – 29,859) breeding Snowy Plovers was estimated. Combining the estimate with information from areas not surveyed, the total North American population was assessed at 25,869 (95% CI = 18,917 – 32,173). Approximately 42% of all breeding Snowy Plovers in North America resided at two sites (Great Salt Lake, Utah, and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge, Oklahoma), and 33% of all these were on wetlands in the Great Basin (including Great Salt Lake). Also, coastal habitats in central and southern Texas supported large numbers of breeding plovers. New breeding sites were discovered in interior deserts and highlands and along the Pacific coast of México; approximately 9% of the North American breeding population occurred in México. Because of uncertainties about effects of climate change and current stresses to breeding habitats, the species should be a management and conservation priority. Periodic monitoring should be undertaken at important sites to ensure high quality habitat is available to support the Snowy Plover population.

  2. Tagging methods for estimating population size and mortality rates of inland striped bass populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hightower, Joseph E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

    2013-01-01

    Striped bass Morone saxatilis in inland reservoirs play an important role ecologically and in supporting recreational fishing. To manage these populations, biologists need information about abundance and mortality. Abundance estimates can be used to assess the effectiveness of stocking programs that maintain most reservoir striped bass populations. Mortality estimates can indicate the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality and the need for harvest regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate tagging studies as a way of obtaining information about abundance and mortality. These approaches can be grouped into three broad categories: tag recapture, tag return, and telemetry. Tag-recapture methods are typically used to estimate population size and other demographic parameters but are often difficult to apply in large systems. A fishing tournament can be an effective way of generating tagging or recapture effort in large systems, compared to using research sampling only. Tag-return methods that rely on angler harvest and catch and release can be used to estimate fishing (F) and natural (M) mortality rates and are a practical approach in large reservoirs. The key to success in tag-return studies is to build in auxiliary studies to estimate short-term tagging mortality, short- and longterm tag loss, reporting rate, and mortality associated with catch and release. F and M can also be estimated using telemetry tags. Advantages of this approach are that angler nonreporting does not bias estimates and fish with transmitters provide useful ecological data. Cost can be a disadvantage of telemetry studies; thus, combining telemetry tags with conventional tag returns in an integrated analysis is often the optimal approach. In summary, tagging methods can be a powerful tool for assessing the effectiveness of inland striped bass stocking programs and the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality

  3. GENEALOGICAL DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE: A CASE STUDY ON CROATIAN AUTOCHTHONOUS CATTLE BREEDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Reljanović

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Effective population size (Ne is one of the most important tools used to assess genetic diversity for conservation purposes. Using pedigree data of three Croatian autochthonous cattle breeds (Buša, Istrian and Slavonian Syrmian Podolian the effective maternal (NeF, paternal (NeM and combined maternal-paternal (NeFM population size was estimated. Additionally, we estimated the effective population size based on the census population sex ratio (Nes, the effective population size from the individual increase in inbreeding (NeFi and the effective population size from individual increase in coancestry (NeCi. We compared these sizes with the values obtained for 20 additional cattle populations, as well as with the newly calculated NeFM. The effective population sizes calculated for three autochthonous breeds were consistently the lowest in amongst all the considered cattle breeds. Utilisation of extremely small numbers of breeding males is the main reason for the observed reduction in the effective population size. The decomposition of effective population size into maternal and paternal components is shown to be an informative parameter in detecting the reduction of the effective population size as a consequence of unequal sex contribution. Still, the impact of the pedigree depth and completeness on the NeF, NeM and NeFM estimation remain to be analysed. A large deviation between Nes and all other methods of Ne estimation was observed and it is our recommendation that breeders and stakeholders should consider using alternative methods of Ne estimation when planning breeding programmes as well as in the determination of the endangered status of animal populations.

  4. Population size of neonate and juvenile dusky sharks Carcharhinus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sharks were at liberty from 0 to 409 days with the majority (89.2%) recaptured within the port. Using a Jolly-Seber open population model, the abundance of sharks within the port was estimated at 552 (95% CI: 422–765). Annual apparent survival probability was 0.38 (95% CI: 0.30–0.46), with an average annual recapture ...

  5. Population Size Effects on Progeny Performance in Banksia ilicifolia R. Br. (Proteaceae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BAMBANG HELIYANTO

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A reduction in population size due to land clearing and habitat fragmentation may have negative effects on plant fitness. A relationship between population size and progeny performance for four small (n 100 plants populations of Banksia ilicifolia, a widespread but naturally fragmented species in south-western Australia, was assessed. Seeds collected from the field were germinated and a comparative growth study conducted in a greenhouse. After six months, the survival rate of seedlings from larger populations was double (36% that of smaller populations, while germination rates and other measures of growth performance were independent of population size. The conservation and management implications of reduced fitness associated with small population size in B. ilicifolia are discussed.

  6. Reproductive value, the stable stage distribution, and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in vital rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The population growth rate, or intrinsic rate of increase, measures the potential rate of growth of a population with specified and fixed vital rates.The sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in the vital rates can be written in terms of the stable stage or age distribution and the reproductive value distribution. If the vital rate measures the rate of production of one type of individual by another, then the sensitivity of growth rate is proportional to the reproductive value of the destination type and the representation in the stable stage distribution of the source type. This formal relationship exists in three forms: one limited to age-classified populations, a second that applies to stage- or age-classified populations, and a third that uses matrix calculus. Each uses a different set of formal demographic techniques; together they provide a relationship that beautifully cuts across different types of demographic models.

  7. Aedes aegypti has spatially structured and seasonally stable populations in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rašić, Gordana; Endersby-Harshman, Nancy; Tantowijoyo, Warsito; Goundar, Anjali; White, Vanessa; Yang, Qiong; Filipović, Igor; Johnson, Petrina; Hoffmann, Ary A; Arguni, Eggi

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever, the most prevalent global arboviral disease, represents an important public health problem in Indonesia. Control of dengue relies on the control of its main vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, yet nothing is known about the population history and genetic structure of this insect in Indonesia. Our aim was to assess the spatio-temporal population genetic structure of Ae. aegypti in Yogyakarta, a densely populated region on Java with common dengue outbreaks. We used multiple marker systems (microsatellites, nuclear and mitochondrial genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms generated via Restriction-site Associated DNA sequencing) to analyze 979 Ae. aegypti individuals collected from the Yogyakarta city and the surrounding hamlets during the wet season in 2011 and the following dry season in 2012. We employed individual- and group-based approaches for inferring genetic structure. We found that Ae. aegypti in Yogyakarta has spatially structured and seasonally stable populations. The spatial structuring was significant for the nuclear and mitochondrial markers, while the temporal structuring was non-significant. Nuclear markers identified three main genetic clusters, showing that hamlets have greater genetic isolation from each other and from the inner city sites. However, one hamlet experienced unrestricted mosquito interbreeding with the inner city, forming a single genetic cluster. Genetic distance was poorly correlated with the spatial distance among mosquito samples, suggesting stronger influence of human-assisted gene flow than active mosquito movement on spatial genetic structure. A star-shaped mitochondrial haplotype network and a significant R(2) test statistic (R(2) = 0.0187, P = 0.001) support the hypothesis that Ae. aegypti in Yogyakarta originated from a small or homogeneous source and has undergone a relatively recent demographic expansion. We report the first insights into the spatio-temporal genetic structure and the underlying

  8. Return to work after thoracic organ transplantation in a clinically-stable population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, Lucia; Ricotti, Susanna; Michelini, Ilaria; Vitulo, Patrizio; Oggionni, Tiberio; Cascina, Alessandro; D'Armini, Andrea M; Goggi, Claudio; Campana, Carlo; Viganò, Mario; Dalla-Toffola, Elena; Tinelli, Carmine; Klersy, Catherine

    2007-11-01

    To evaluate the rate of return to work after transplantation and its determinants in a clinically-stable population of patients transplanted and followed-up at a single institution in Italy. 151 thoracic organ transplant recipients (72 lung, 79 heart) were examined. Patients were asked about daily activities, level of education, employment and clinical condition. A six-minute walking test was performed with measurement of dyspnoea using the Borg scale. Quality of Life was evaluated with the SF-36 and GHQ questionnaires. Before transplantation 131 patients (87%), (70 heart and 61 lung) worked. After transplantation, 51 patients (39%) went back to work and 3 more started working. We found that younger age, a better quality of life (mainly in the mental domain), having had an occupation previously (particularly as an entrepreneur/freelancer), and having been off work for less than 24 months, were independent predictors of return to work. Considering their good, objective and subjective, functional status, some patients who could have returned to work, chose not to. Identifying factors which affect return to work might help health professionals to adopt the best course of treatment and psychological support in order to fulfil this goal; however, return to work should not be considered as the only expression of a patient's real psychophysical condition.

  9. Ontogenetic niche shifts and flexible behavior in size-structured populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Roos, A.M.; Leonardsson, K.; Persson, L.; Mittelbach, G.G.

    2002-01-01

    Flexible behavior has been shown to have substantial affects on population dynamics in unstructured models. We investigate the influence of flexible bahavior on the dynamics of a size-structured population using a physiologically structured modeling approach. Individuals of the size-structured

  10. Size at hatching determines population dynamics and response to harvesting in cannibalistic fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooten, van T.; Andersson, J.; Bystrom, P.; Persson, L.; Roos, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    We hypothesize that size at hatching strongly affects population dynamics of cannibalistic fish species and is a crucial determinant of how populations respond to selective removal of large individuals (harvesting). We use a mechanistic mathematical model to study the relation between hatching size

  11. Effect of reference population size and available ancestor genotypes on imputation of Mexican Holstein genotypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    The effects of reference population size and the availability of information from genotyped ancestors on the accuracy of imputation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were investigated for Mexican Holstein cattle. Three scenarios for reference population size were examined: (1) a local popula...

  12. The Relationship between the Proportional Size of the Special Education Population and Academic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Patricia Kenner

    2013-01-01

    This investigation addressed the hypothesized effects of the proportional size of a district's special education population on the overall student achievement in selected school districts in Texas. The size of a district's special education population (independent variable) was compared to districts' achievement (dependent variables) in order to…

  13. Using target population specification, effect size, and reach to estimate and compare the population impact of two PTSD preventive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zatzick, Douglas F; Koepsell, Thomas; Rivara, Frederick P

    2009-01-01

    The population impact of a preventive intervention depends on two factors: what proportion of the full population at risk receives the intervention and how large a reduction in risk occurs among those who receive it. We sought to illustrate how information from a cognitive behavioral psychotherapy (CBT) trial and stepped collaborative care (CC) trial could be used to estimate the population impact of two contrasting approaches to PTSD prevention. We first specified trauma center target populations represented by participants in each trial. Patient characteristics were compared, as were effect size and reach indices and population-level reductions in PTSD incidence. The CBT trial demonstrated a larger effect size (50% PTSD prevention), but minimal reach (27/10,000), while the CC trial demonstrated a smaller effect size (7% PTSD prevention) but greater reach (1762/10,000). Modeling of the population impact suggested that a 9.5-fold greater cumulative reduction in the incidence of PTSD would result from the dissemination of the CC broad reach prevention strategy. A reciprocal relationship between effect size and reach was evident in these two trials. By specifying a target population, effect size and reach could be combined to project the overall population impact of each PTSD prevention approach.

  14. Derivation of stochastic partial differential equations for size- and age-structured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Edward J

    2009-01-01

    Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) for size-structured and age- and size-structured populations are derived from basic principles, i.e. from the changes that occur in a small time interval. Discrete stochastic models of size-structured and age-structured populations are constructed, carefully taking into account the inherent randomness in births, deaths, and size changes. As the time interval decreases, the discrete stochastic models lead to systems of Itô stochastic differential equations. As the size and age intervals decrease, SPDEs are derived for size-structured and age- and size-structured populations. Comparisons between numerical solutions of the SPDEs and independently formulated Monte Carlo calculations support the accuracy of the derivations.

  15. Identification of active methylotroph populations in an acidic forest soil by stable-isotope probing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radajewski, Stefan; Webster, Gordon; Reay, David S; Morris, Samantha A; Ineson, Philip; Nedwell, David B; Prosser, James I; Murrell, J Colin

    2002-08-01

    Stable-isotope probing (SIP) is a culture-independent technique that enables the isolation of DNA from micro-organisms that are actively involved in a specific metabolic process. In this study, SIP was used to characterize the active methylotroph populations in forest soil (pH 3.5) microcosms that were exposed to (13)CH(3)OH or (13)CH(4). Distinct (13)C-labelled DNA ((13)C-DNA) fractions were resolved from total community DNA by CsCl density-gradient centrifugation. Analysis of 16S rDNA sequences amplified from the (13)C-DNA revealed that bacteria related to the genera Methylocella, Methylocapsa, Methylocystis and Rhodoblastus had assimilated the (13)C-labelled substrates, which suggested that moderately acidophilic methylotroph populations were active in the microcosms. Enrichments targeted towards the active proteobacterial CH(3)OH utilizers were successful, although none of these bacteria were isolated into pure culture. A parallel analysis of genes encoding the key enzymes methanol dehydrogenase and particulate methane monooxygenase reflected the 16S rDNA analysis, but unexpectedly revealed sequences related to the ammonia monooxygenase of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) from the beta-subclass of the PROTEOBACTERIA: Analysis of AOB-selective 16S rDNA amplification products identified Nitrosomonas and Nitrosospira sequences in the (13)C-DNA fractions, suggesting certain AOB assimilated a significant proportion of (13)CO(2), possibly through a close physical and/or nutritional association with the active methylotrophs. Other sequences retrieved from the (13)C-DNA were related to the 16S rDNA sequences of members of the Acidobacterium division, the beta-Proteobacteria and the order Cytophagales, which implicated these bacteria in the assimilation of reduced one-carbon compounds or in the assimilation of the by-products of methylotrophic carbon metabolism. Results from the (13)CH(3)OH and (13)CH(4) SIP experiments thus provide a rational basis for further

  16. Modeling the growth and decline of pathogen effective population size provides insight into epidemic dynamics and drivers of antimicrobial resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volz, Erik M; Didelot, Xavier

    2018-02-07

    Non-parametric population genetic modeling provides a simple and flexible approach for studying demographic history and epidemic dynamics using pathogen sequence data. Existing Bayesian approaches are premised on stochastic processes with stationary increments which may provide an unrealistic prior for epidemic histories which feature extended period of exponential growth or decline. We show that non-parametric models defined in terms of the growth rate of the effective population size can provide a more realistic prior for epidemic history. We propose a non-parametric autoregressive model on the growth rate as a prior for effective population size, which corresponds to the dynamics expected under many epidemic situations. We demonstrate the use of this model within a Bayesian phylodynamic inference framework. Our method correctly reconstructs trends of epidemic growth and decline from pathogen genealogies even when genealogical data is sparse and conventional skyline estimators erroneously predict stable population size. We also propose a regression approach for relating growth rates of pathogen effective population size and time-varying variables that may impact the replicative fitness of a pathogen. The model is applied to real data from rabies virus and Staphylococcus aureus epidemics. We find a close correspondence between the estimated growth rates of a lineage of methicillin-resistant S. aureus and population-level prescription rates of β-lactam antibiotics. The new models are implemented in an open source R package called skygrowth which is available at https://github.com/mrc-ide/skygrowth. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  17. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  18. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  19. Stable isotope ratios and reforestation potential in Acacia koa populations on Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaneka Lawson; Carrie Pike

    2017-01-01

    Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes can be influenced by a multitude of factors including elevation, precipitation rate, season, and temperature. This work examined variability in foliar stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope ratios of koa (Acacia koa) across 17 sites on Hawai'i Island, delineated by elevation and precipitation...

  20. Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

    2012-01-01

    Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

  1. Breeding durations as estimators of adult sex ratios and population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Nicholas Leslie; Gillanders, Bronwyn May; Semmens, Jayson

    2011-02-01

    Adult sex ratios (ASRs) and population size are two of the most fundamental parameters in population biology, as they are the main determinants of genetic and demographic viability, and vulnerability of a population to stochastic events. Underpinning the application of population viability analysis for predicting the extinction risk of populations is the need to accurately estimate parameters that determine the viability of populations (i.e. the ASR and population size). Here we demonstrate that a lack of temporal information can confound estimation of both parameters. Using acoustic telemetry, we compared differences in breeding durations of both sexes for a giant Australian cuttlefish Sepia apama breeding aggregation to the strongly male-biased operational sex ratio (4:1), in order to estimate the population ASR. The ratio of breeding durations between sexes was equal to the operational sex ratio, suggesting that the ASR is not strongly male-biased, but balanced. Furthermore, the short residence times of individuals at the breeding aggregation suggests that previous density-based abundance estimates have significantly underestimated population size. With the current wide application of population viability analysis for predicting the extinction risk of populations, tools to improve the accuracy of such predictions are vital. Here we provide a new approach to estimating the fundamental ASR parameter, and call for temporal considerations when estimating population size.

  2. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, B.A.; Bauer, S.; Feige, N.; Kokorev, Y.; Popov, I.Y.; Ebbinge, B.S.

    2013-01-01

    1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may

  3. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  4. The effective population size of malaria mosquitoes: large impact of vector control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athrey, Giridhar; Hodges, Theresa K; Reddy, Michael R; Overgaard, Hans J; Matias, Abrahan; Ridl, Frances C; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Caccone, Adalgisa; Slotman, Michel A

    2012-01-01

    Malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa have proven themselves very difficult adversaries in the global struggle against malaria. Decades of anti-vector interventions have yielded mixed results--with successful reductions in transmission in some areas and limited impacts in others. These varying successes can be ascribed to a lack of universally effective vector control tools, as well as the development of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations. Understanding the impact of vector control on mosquito populations is crucial for planning new interventions and evaluating existing ones. However, estimates of population size changes in response to control efforts are often inaccurate because of limitations and biases in collection methods. Attempts to evaluate the impact of vector control on mosquito effective population size (N(e)) have produced inconclusive results thus far. Therefore, we obtained data for 13-15 microsatellite markers for more than 1,500 mosquitoes representing multiple time points for seven populations of three important vector species--Anopheles gambiae, An. melas, and An. moucheti--in Equatorial Guinea. These populations were exposed to indoor residual spraying or long-lasting insecticidal nets in recent years. For comparison, we also analyzed data from two populations that have no history of organized vector control. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to reconstruct their demographic history, allowing us to evaluate the impact of these interventions on the effective population size. In six of the seven study populations, vector control had a dramatic impact on the effective population size, reducing N(e) between 55%-87%, the exception being a single An. melas population. In contrast, the two negative control populations did not experience a reduction in effective population size. This study is the first to conclusively link anti-vector intervention programs in Africa to sharply reduced effective population sizes of malaria vectors.

  5. Chromosomes A07 and A05 associated with stable and major QTLs for pod weight and size in cultivated peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Huaiyong; Guo, Jianbin; Ren, Xiaoping; Chen, Weigang; Huang, Li; Zhou, Xiaojing; Chen, Yuning; Liu, Nian; Xiong, Fei; Lei, Yong; Liao, Boshou; Jiang, Huifang

    2018-02-01

    Co-localized intervals and candidate genes were identified for major and stable QTLs controlling pod weight and size on chromosomes A07 and A05 in an RIL population across four environments. Cultivated peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is an important legume crops grown in > 100 countries. Hundred-pod weight (HPW) is an important yield trait in peanut, but its underlying genetic mechanism was not well studied. In this study, a mapping population (Xuhua 13 × Zhonghua 6) with 187 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was developed to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for HPW together with pod length (PL) and pod width (PW) by both unconditional and conditional QTL analyses. A genetic map covering 1756.48 cM was constructed with 817 markers. Additive effects, epistatic interactions, and genotype-by-environment interactions were analyzed using the phenotyping data generated across four environments. Twelve additive QTLs were identified on chromosomes A05, A07, and A08 by unconditional analysis, and five of them (qPLA07, qPLA05.1, qPWA07, qHPWA07.1, and qHPWA05.2) showed major and stable expressions in all environments. Conditional QTL mapping found that PL had stronger influences on HPW than PW. Notably, qHPWA07.1, qPLA07, and qPWA07 that explained 17.93-43.63% of the phenotypic variations of the three traits were co-localized in a 5 cM interval (1.48 Mb in physical map) on chromosome A07 with 147 candidate genes related to catalytic activity and metabolic process. In addition, qHPWA05.2 and qPLA05.1 were co-localized with minor QTL qPWA05.2 to a 1.3 cM genetic interval (280 kb in physical map) on chromosome A05 with 12 candidate genes. This study provides a comprehensive characterization of the genetic components controlling pod weight and size as well as candidate QTLs and genes for improving pod yield in future peanut breeding.

  6. Stochastic density dependence in population size of a benthic clonal invertebrate: the regulating role of fission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Jason E

    2000-03-01

    The influence of environmental variation on the demography of clonal organisms has been poorly studied. I utilise a matrix model of the population dynamics of the intertidal zoanthid Palythoa caesia to examine how density dependence and temporal variation in demographic rates interact in regulating population size. The model produces realistic simulations of population size, with erratic fluctuations between soft lower and upper boundaries of approximately 55 and 90% cover. Cover never exceeds the maximum possible of 100%, and the population never goes to extinction. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the model's behaviour is driven by density dependence in the fission of large colonies to produce intermediate sized colonies. Importantly, there is no density-dependent mortality in the model, and density dependence in recruitment, while present, is unimportant. Thus it appears that the main demographic processes which are considered to regulate population size in aclonal organisms may not be important for clonal species.

  7. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  8. Sibship reconstruction for inferring mating systems, dispersal and effective population size in headwater brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanno, Yoichiro; Vokoun, Jason C.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2011-01-01

    Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis populations have declined in much of the native range in eastern North America and populations are typically relegated to small headwater streams in Connecticut, USA. We used sibship reconstruction to infer mating systems, dispersal and effective population size of resident (non-anadromous) brook trout in two headwater stream channel networks in Connecticut. Brook trout were captured via backpack electrofishing using spatially continuous sampling in the two headwaters (channel network lengths of 4.4 and 7.7 km). Eight microsatellite loci were genotyped in a total of 740 individuals (80–140 mm) subsampled in a stratified random design from all 50 m-reaches in which trout were captured. Sibship reconstruction indicated that males and females were both mostly polygamous although single pair matings were also inferred. Breeder sex ratio was inferred to be nearly 1:1. Few large-sized fullsib families (>3 individuals) were inferred and the majority of individuals were inferred to have no fullsibs among those fish genotyped (family size = 1). The median stream channel distance between pairs of individuals belonging to the same large-sized fullsib families (>3 individuals) was 100 m (range: 0–1,850 m) and 250 m (range: 0–2,350 m) in the two study sites, indicating limited dispersal at least for the size class of individuals analyzed. Using a sibship assignment method, the effective population size for the two streams was estimated at 91 (95%CI: 67–123) and 210 (95%CI: 172–259), corresponding to the ratio of effective-to-census population size of 0.06 and 0.12, respectively. Both-sex polygamy, low variation in reproductive success, and a balanced sex ratio may help maintain genetic diversity of brook trout populations with small breeder sizes persisting in headwater channel networks.

  9. Effects of host-plant population size and plant sex on a specialist leaf-miner

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bañuelos, María-José; Kollmann, Johannes Christian

    2011-01-01

    punctures left by adults were marginally more frequent on male plants, whereas egg scars and mines were more common on females. Overall survival rate from egg stage to adult emergence was higher on female plants. Egg density was negatively correlated with hatching, while mine density was positively...... stages to be estimated. The main stages of the leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis were recorded in eleven populations of the evergreen host Ilex aquifolium in Denmark. Survival rates were calculated and related to population size, sex of the host plant, and egg and mine densities. Host population size...... was negatively related to leaf-miner prevalence, with larger egg and mine densities in small populations. Percentage of eggs hatching and developing into mines, and percentage of adult flies emerging from mines also differed among host populations, but were not related to population size or host cover. Feeding...

  10. Microbial population dynamics in continuous anaerobic digester systems during start up, stable conditions and recovery after starvation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jonge, Nadieh; Moset, Veronica; Møller, Henrik Bjarne; Nielsen, Jeppe Lund

    2017-05-01

    The evolution and population dynamics of complex anaerobic microbial communities in anaerobic digesters were investigated during stable operation and recovery after prolonged starvation. Three thermophilic reactor systems fed with cattle manure were operated continuously in parallel for 167days. Significant changes in the microbial communities were observed for both the bacterial and archaeal populations as the reactor systems were subjected to changing feeding regimes. The ecosystems developed from being relatively similar in structure to more specialised communities, with large population shifts within the acetogenic and methanogenic communities, which appeared to shift towards the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis pathway. All reactor systems showed signs of adaptation to a harsher environment under high VFA, H 2 S and ammonia concentrations, but remained at a lower degree of stability after 45days of recovery compared to stable period of operation before starvation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Crescimento populacional e análise isotópica de Diaphanosoma spinolosum e Ceriodaphnia cornuta (Crustacea: Cladocera, alimentadas com diferentes frações de seston natural - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v33i1.7260 Population growth and stable isotope analyses of Diaphanosoma spinolosum and Ceriodaphnia cornuta (Crustacea: Cladocera fed with different seston size fractions - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v33i1.7260

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Forsberg

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Para definir o efeito do seston como fonte de alimento para Ceriodaphnia cornuta e Diaphanosoma spinolosum durante a enchente no lago Catalão (Amazônia Central foram desenvolvidos experimentos “in situ”, utilizando a variação natural de δ13C e δ15N como traçadores de alimento. As duas espécies tiveram acesso a três diferentes frações de seston (D. spinolosum e C. cornuta apresentaram enriquecimento nos valores de delta;13C e δ15N, sendo maior na fração In order to define the effect of seston size fraction as a food source for Ceriodaphnia cornuta and Diaphanosoma spinolosumin, situ experiments using natural abundance of delta;13C and δ15N were carried out during the rising water period in Catalão Lake. Both species were fed with three different fractions of seston from the lake (13C and δ15N. Both species grew in all of the food fractions, with the best the performance coming in the D. spinolosum and C. cornuta showed enrichment in delta;13C and δ15N, which was highest in the < 10 µm fraction for both species. These results show that the seston size fractions tested produce different population growth rates and isotopic signatures in cladocerans.

  13. Population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations reveals the genetic basis of body size variation in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas L Turner

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Body size is a classic quantitative trait with evolutionarily significant variation within many species. Locating the alleles responsible for this variation would help understand the maintenance of variation in body size in particular, as well as quantitative traits in general. However, successful genome-wide association of genotype and phenotype may require very large sample sizes if alleles have low population frequencies or modest effects. As a complementary approach, we propose that population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations allows for considerable power to map functional variation. Here, we use this technique to investigate the genetic basis of natural variation in body size in Drosophila melanogaster. Significant differentiation of hundreds of loci in replicate selection populations supports the hypothesis that the genetic basis of body size variation is very polygenic in D. melanogaster. Significantly differentiated variants are limited to single genes at some loci, allowing precise hypotheses to be formed regarding causal polymorphisms, while other significant regions are large and contain many genes. By using significantly associated polymorphisms as a priori candidates in follow-up studies, these data are expected to provide considerable power to determine the genetic basis of natural variation in body size.

  14. The size and growth of state populations in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Kwok Tong Soo

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the population distribution across U.S. states over time. We test for Zipf's Law on the size distribution of state populations and Gibrat's Law for the growth of state populations. State populations follow a lognormal distribution more closely than they do a Zipf or Pareto distribution. State population growth is negatively related to current state population in the 19th century but not in the 20th century, and is positively related to market potential in the 20th century ...

  15. Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khraif, Rshood; Salam, Asharaf Abdul; Potty, Rajaram Subramanian; Aldosari, Ali; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; AlMutairi, Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies.

  16. Recombination gives a new insight in the effective population size and the history of the old world human populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melé, Marta; Javed, Asif; Pybus, Marc; Zalloua, Pierre; Haber, Marc; Comas, David; Netea, Mihai G; Balanovsky, Oleg; Balanovska, Elena; Jin, Li; Yang, Yajun; Pitchappan, R M; Arunkumar, G; Parida, Laxmi; Calafell, Francesc; Bertranpetit, Jaume

    2012-01-01

    The information left by recombination in our genomes can be used to make inferences on our recent evolutionary history. Specifically, the number of past recombination events in a population sample is a function of its effective population size (Ne). We have applied a method, Identifying Recombination in Sequences (IRiS), to detect specific past recombination events in 30 Old World populations to infer their Ne. We have found that sub-Saharan African populations have an Ne that is approximately four times greater than those of non-African populations and that outside of Africa, South Asian populations had the largest Ne. We also observe that the patterns of recombinational diversity of these populations correlate with distance out of Africa if that distance is measured along a path crossing South Arabia. No such correlation is found through a Sinai route, suggesting that anatomically modern humans first left Africa through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait rather than through present Egypt.

  17. Granule size affects substitution on amylopectin populations in potato and sweet potato starches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Z.; Huang, J.; Suurs, P.; Schols, H.A.; Voragen, A.G.J.

    2005-01-01

    Specific enzymatic degradation in combination with chromatographic and spectrometric techniques was used to understand acetyl group distribution over the amylopectin populations of differently sized granule fractions from potato and sweet potato starches. The hydrolysates obtained after ¿-amylase,

  18. Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

    2010-01-01

    The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

  19. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

    2018-04-01

    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  20. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  1. Positive global solutions for a general model of size-dependent population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kato, Nobuyuki

    2000-01-01

    We study size-structured population models of general type which have the growth rate depending on the size and time. The local existence and uniqueness of the solution have been shown by Kato and Torikata (1997). Here, we discuss the positivity of the solution and global existence as well as $L^\\infty$ solutions.

  2. Local existence for a general model of size-dependent population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Kato

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available We shall investigate a size structured population dynamics with aging and birth functions having general forms. The growth rate we deal with depends not only on the size but also on time. We show the existence of a local solution and continuous dependence on the initial data, which shows the uniqueness of the solution as well.

  3. Effects of habitat size and quality on equilibrium density and extinction time of Sorex araneus populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, C.; Roos, de A.M.

    1998-01-01

    1. The effects of changes in habitat size and quality on the expected population density and the expected time to extinction of Sorex araneus are studied by means of mathematical models that incorporate demographic stochasticity. 2. Habitat size is characterized by the number of territories, while

  4. Local foraging and limited mobility: Dynamics of a size-structured consumer population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kooten, T.; de Roos, A.M.; Persson, L.

    2004-01-01

    Size-structured population models often exhibit single generation cycles, which are driven by scramble competition within a generation and size-based competitive asymmetry among generations. These cycles are characterized by the dominance of a single cohort and thus by a high degree of

  5. Association between primary care organisation population size and quality of commissioning in England: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaves, Felix; Millett, Christopher; Pape, Utz J; Soljak, Michael; Majeed, Azeem

    2012-01-01

    The ideal population size of healthcare commissioning organisations is not known. To investigate whether there is a relationship between the size of commissioning organisations and how well they perform on a range of performance measures. Cross-sectional, observational study of performance in all 152 primary care trusts (PCTs) in England. Comparison of PCT size against 36 indicators of commissioning performance, including measures of clinical and preventative effectiveness, patient centredness, access, cost, financial ability, and engagement. Fourteen of the 36 indicators have an unadjusted relationship (Psize of the PCT. With 10 indicators, there was increasing quality with larger size. However, when population factors including deprivation, ethnicity, rurality, and age were included in the analysis, there was no relationship between size and performance for any measure. There is no evidence to suggest that there is an optimum size for PCT performance. Observed variations in PCT performance with size were explained by the characteristics of the populations they served. These findings suggest that configuration of clinical commissioning groups should be geared towards producing organisations that can function effectively across their key responsibilities, rather than being based on the size of their population alone.

  6. Strong evidence for selection for larger brood size in a great tit population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, JM; Sanz, JJ

    We measured the selection pressure on brood size in a recently established population of great tits (Parus major L.) in the northern Netherlands by manipulating brood size in three years (1995: n = 51, 1997: n = 66, 1998: n = 51), and we estimated fitness consequences in terms of local survival of

  7. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... REQUIREMENTS APPLICABLE TO TITLE IV-E Pt. 1356, App. C Appendix C to Part 1356—Calculating Sample Size for NYTD...

  8. Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

    2016-06-01

    It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.

  9. Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Pleasants

    Full Text Available To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

  10. Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

    2017-01-01

    To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

  11. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  12. Profiling B-type natriuretic peptide in a stable heart failure population: a valuable adjunct to care.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Jan, A

    2012-02-01

    AIM: To examine the prognostic importance of absolute values and change in values of BNP in patients with stable heart failure (HF). METHODS: Five-hundred and fifty-nine patients attending a disease management programme were categorized into tertiles of BNP (group 1; <\\/= 95 pg\\/ml, group 2; 96-249 pg\\/ml and group 3; >\\/= 250 pg\\/ml). A change in BNP between two stable visits was recorded. Patients were followed up for 1 year for death and a composite morbidity measure of HF hospitalization, all-cause hospitalization, unscheduled visits for clinical deterioration(UC) of HF using survival analysis. RESULTS: The risk of the combined morbidity outcome increased with increasing tertiles of BNP (Log rank = 17.8 (2), p < 0.001). Furthermore, a 50 and 25% increase in BNP predicted morbidity in stable HF patients with an initial BNP > 200 pg\\/ml (p = 0.02) and > 450 pg\\/ml (p = 0.03), respectively. CONCLUSION: In a stable community HF population, an elevated BNP or an increase in BNP predicts an adverse prognosis thereby potentially identifying a population in need of closer clinical follow-up.

  13. Coevolving parasites and population size shape the evolution of mating behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstes Niels AG

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Coevolution with parasites and population size are both expected to influence the evolution of mating rates. To gain insights into the interaction between these dual selective factors, we used populations from a coevolution experiment with the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, and its microsporidian parasite, Nosema whitei. We maintained each experimental population at two different population sizes. We assayed the mating behaviour of both males and females from coevolved and paired non-coevolved control populations after 24 generations of coevolution with parasites. Results Males from large, coevolved populations (i.e. ancestors were exposed to parasites showed a reduced eagerness to mate compared to males from large, non-coevolved populations. But in small populations, coevolution did not lead to decreased male mating rates. Coevolved females from both large and small populations appeared to be more willing to accept mating than non-coevolved females. Conclusions This study provides unique, experimental insights into the combined roles of coevolving parasites and population size on the evolution of mating rate. Furthermore, we find that males and females respond differently to the same environmental conditions. Our results show that parasites can be key determinants of the sexual behaviour of their hosts.

  14. Sex ratio rather than population size affects genetic diversity in Antennaria dioica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosche, C; Schrieber, K; Lachmuth, S; Durka, W; Hirsch, H; Wagner, V; Schleuning, M; Hensen, I

    2018-03-09

    Habitat fragmentation and small population size can lead to genetic erosion in threatened plant populations. Classical theory implies that dioecy can counteract genetic erosion as it decreases the magnitude of inbreeding and genetic drift due to obligate outcrossing. However, in small populations, sex ratios may be strongly male- or female-biased, leading to substantial reductions in effective population size. This may theoretically result in a unimodal relationship between sex ratios and genetic diversity; yet, empirical studies on this relationship are scarce. Using AFLP markers, we studied genetic diversity, structure and differentiation in 14 highly fragmented Antennaria dioica populations from the Central European lowlands. Our analyses focused on the relationship between sex ratio, population size and genetic diversity. Although most populations were small (mean: 35.5 patches), genetic diversity was moderately high. We found evidence for isolation-by-distance, but overall differentiation of the populations was rather weak. Females dominated 11 populations, which overall resulted in a slightly female-biased sex ratio (61.5%). There was no significant relationship between population size and genetic diversity. The proportion of females was not unimodally but positively linearly related to genetic diversity. The high genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation suggest that A. dioica has been widely distributed in the Central European lowlands in the past, while fragmentation occurred only in the last decades. Sex ratio has more immediate consequences on genetic diversity than population size. An increasing proportion of females can increase genetic diversity in dioecious plants, probably due to a higher amount of sexual reproduction. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  15. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS INFLUENCING FAMILY SIZE AMONG RURAL POPULATION OF DISTRICT NAINITAL, UTTARAKHAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Pandey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: India is the second most populous country in the world. A decline in its population growth rate has been shown amounting to during the last decades. The decline in the family size is important step towards population stabilization for our country. The status of family size is related to various demographic, socio-economic, cultural factors and attitude towards use of family planning methods. Objective: To assess the relationship of family size with socio-economic factors and effect of contraceptive use. Methodology: A cross sectional house to house survey to know the family size and socio-demographic was conducted in the adopted villages of field practice area. The study subjects are the married women of reproductive age group (15-49 years. Results: About half (44.9% of respondents were aged more than 35 years and only (0.9% were < 19 years. The family size in our study was 2.55. About 54.5% of respondents have family size d" 2. About two-third of families (65% with size less than or equals to two were of nuclear type. Education level of family has significant relationship with small family size. About 90% of the respondents and their spouse of family size two or less were literate. A significant association was found between occupation of the spouse and family size. The spouses of the respondents with family size more than two were mainly engaged in agriculture (29.7% and as labourer (38.5%. Among the families with family size of more than two, majority were from middle (81% and lower (14.9% class. There is no significant effect of use of contraceptives on the family size.

  16. The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Neill, BC; Scherbov, S; Lutz, W

    1999-01-01

    Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of

  17. Spatially-explicit estimation of Wright's neighborhood size in continuous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Shirk; Samuel A. Cushman

    2014-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important parameter in conservation genetics because it quantifies a population's capacity to resist loss of genetic diversity due to inbreeding and drift. The classical approach to estimate Ne from genetic data involves grouping sampled individuals into discretely defined subpopulations assumed to be panmictic. Importantly,...

  18. Effective population size of an indigenous Swiss cattle breed estimated from linkage disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effective population size is an important parameter for the assessment of genetic diversity within a livestock population and its development over time. If pedigree information is not available, linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis might offer an alternative perspective for the estimation of effecti...

  19. Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

  20. Patterns and processes of population dynamics with fluctuating habitat size: a case study of a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools

    OpenAIRE

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Shirotori, Wakako; Kawai, Momoka; Noda, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    The logistic model is a fundamental population model often used as the basis for analyzing wildlife population dynamics. In the classic logistic model, however, population dynamics may be difficult to characterize if habitat size is temporally variable because population density can vary at a constant abundance, which results in variable strength of density-dependent feedback for a given population size. To incorporate habitat size variability, we developed a general population model in which...

  1. Population size-structure-dependent fitness and ecosystem consequences in Trinidadian guppies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassar, Ronald D; Heatherly, Thomas; Marshall, Michael C; Thomas, Steven A; Flecker, Alexander S; Reznick, David N

    2015-07-01

    Decades of theory and recent empirical results have shown that evolutionary, population, community and ecosystem properties are the result of feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. The vast majority of theory and empirical research on these eco-evolutionary feedbacks has focused on interactions among population size and mean traits of populations. However, numbers and mean traits represent only a fraction of the possible feedback dimensions. Populations of many organisms consist of different size classes that differ in their impact on the environment and each other. Moreover, rarely do we know the map of ecological pathways through which changes in numbers or size structure cause evolutionary change. The goal of this study was to test the role of size structure in eco-evolutionary feedbacks of Trinidadian guppies and to begin to build an eco-evolutionary map along this unexplored dimension. We used a factorial experiment in mesocosms wherein we crossed high- and low-predation guppy phenotypes with population size structure. We tested the ability of changes in size structure to generate selection on the demographic rates of guppies using an integral projection model (IPM). To understand how fitness differences among high- and low-predation phenotypes may be generated, we measured the response of the biomass of lower trophic levels and nutrient cycling to the different phenotype and size structure treatments. We found a significant interaction between guppy phenotype and the size structure treatments for absolute fitness. Size structure had a very large effect on invertebrate biomass in the mesocosms, but there was little or no effect of the phenotype. The effect of size structure on algal biomass depended on guppy phenotype, with no difference in algal biomass in populations with more, smaller guppies, but a large decrease in algal biomass in mesocosms with phenotypes adapted to low-predation risk. These results indicate an important role for size

  2. Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    . The dilemma results from the possibility that adults have to breed even if metabolic costs fail to be covered.We consider a size-structured population model, where standard metabolism is given top priority for utilizing energy intake and the surplus energy, if there is any, is distributed to individual growth...... and reproduction. Moreover, the portion of surplus energy for reproduction is size-dependent and increases monotonically with size. Using the newly developed parameter continuation, we demonstrate their disparate effects on population dynamics. Results show that the size-dependent mechanism of energy allocation......The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults...

  3. Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

    2017-04-01

    Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

  4. Population size and cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collard, Mark; Ruttle, April; Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J

    2013-01-01

    Modeling work suggests that population size affects cultural evolution such that larger populations can be expected to have richer and more complex cultural repertoires than smaller populations. Empirical tests of this hypothesis, however, have yielded conflicting results. Here, we report a study in which we investigated whether the subsistence toolkits of small-scale food-producers are influenced by population size in the manner the hypothesis predicts. We applied simple linear and standard multiple regression analysis to data from 40 nonindustrial farming and pastoralist groups to test the hypothesis. Results were consistent with predictions of the hypothesis: both the richness and the complexity of the toolkits of the food-producers were positively and significantly influenced by population size in the simple linear regression analyses. The multiple regression analyses demonstrated that these relationships are independent of the effects of risk of resource failure, which is the other main factor that has been found to influence toolkit richness and complexity in nonindustrial groups. Thus, our study strongly suggests that population size influences cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing populations.

  5. Stable polymorphism for mutant eye colour genes in populations of Drosophila melanogaster in two different media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nájera, C; Ménsua, J L

    1988-09-30

    In previous work analyzing variability of eye colour alleles existing in natural populations of D. melanogaster, it was observed that the number of females heterozygous for some eye colour alleles was greater in a wine cellar population than in populations outside this cellar. In order to determine which mechanisms caused these eye colour alleles to be favored in the heterozygotes, the changes in the frequency of four eye colour alleles frequently seen in the cellar population (se77o, sf77m, cd77o and multichromosomal 77o) was studied in artificial populations. Two different culture media, one supplemented with 10% ethanol and the other without ethanol were used. It was found that each of the four mutants reached similar equilibrium frequencies in both media, though the safranin allele (sf77m) equilibrium frequency was significantly higher in the alcohol medium. A significant excess of heterozygotes were also observed in these populations.

  6. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  7. Stable isotope ratios and reforestation potential in Acacia koa populations on Hawai’i

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaneka Lawson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes can be influenced by a multitude of factors including elevation, precipitation rate, season, and temperature. This work examined the variability in foliar stable carbon (δ13C and nitrogen (δ15N isotope ratios of koa (Acacia koa for 17 sites on Hawai’i Island delineated by elevation and precipitation gradients. Sites were identified and grouped with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP, mean annual temperature (MAT and position along three elevation ranges. Analysis of the resultant δ13C and δ15N isotope ratios from multiple individuals at these sites indicated that certain sites showed a demonstrated correlation between carbon and/or nitrogen content, isotope ratios, precipitation, and elevation however many sites showed no correlation. We used publicly available temperature and moisture data to help eliminate confounding effects by climatic drivers and capture possible points of contention. At sites where the temperature, precipitation, and elevation data were not significantly different we compared stable isotope information to determine if additional variables could have contributed to the lack of more correlative data. Our results note several areas within the Waiakea Forest Reserve and Volcanoes National Park where, based on isotope results, reforestation efforts could be most successfully initiated.

  8. Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevelius, Jae M.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask

  9. Both size and GC-content of minimal introns are selected in human populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dapeng Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We previously have studied the insertion and deletion polymorphism by sequencing no more than one hundred introns in a mixed human population and found that the minimal introns tended to maintain length at an optimal size. Here we analyzed re-sequenced 179 individual genomes (from African, European, and Asian populations from the data released by the 1000 Genome Project to study the size dynamics of minimal introns. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We not only confirmed that minimal introns in human populations are selected but also found two major effects in minimal intron evolution: (i Size-effect: minimal introns longer than an optimal size (87 nt tend to have a higher ratio of deletion to insertion than those that are shorter than the optimal size; (ii GC-effect: minimal introns with lower GC content tend to be more frequently deleted than those with higher GC content. The GC-effect results in a higher GC content in minimal introns than their flanking exons as opposed to larger introns (≥125 nt that always have a lower GC content than that of their flanking exons. We also observed that the two effects are distinguishable but not completely separable within and between populations. CONCLUSIONS: We validated the unique mutation dynamics of minimal introns in keeping their near-optimal size and GC content, and our observations suggest potentially important functions of human minimal introns in transcript processing and gene regulation.

  10. Intraspecific variation in erythrocyte sizes among populations of Hypsiboas cordobas (Anura: Hylidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Baraquet

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We studied the morphology and size of erythrocytes of H. cordobae, and analysed the geographic variation of this character along the distribution of the species, in relation to the latitudinal and altitudinal distances. Erythrocyte shape of the H. cordobae is ellipsoidal and the nuclei are also ellipsoidal and centrally oriented. Erythrocyte and nuclear size showed significant differences among populations, with the highest mean size corresponding to the population of Achiras (low altitude site and the lowest mean size to Los Linderos (high altitude site. There was no significant relationship between the latitude of each population and the both erythrocyte and nuclear size. The altitudinal variation in erythrocyte cell size may be attributable to the surface available for gas exchange; a small erythrocyte offers a possibility of greater rate of exchange than a larger one. Our results are consistent with studies of other amphibians, where intraspecific comparisons of populations at different altitudes show that individuals at higher altitudes are characterized by smaller erythrocytes.

  11. Two-Locus Likelihoods Under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamm, John A; Spence, Jeffrey P; Chan, Jeffrey; Song, Yun S

    2016-07-01

    Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite-likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ([Formula: see text]) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ([Formula: see text]). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ([Formula: see text]). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

  12. Effects of insecticide exposure on movement and population size estimates of predatory ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasifka, Jarrad R; Lopez, Miriam D; Hellmich, Richard L; Prasifka, Patricia L

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of arthropod population size may paradoxically increase following insecticide applications. Research with ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) suggests that such unusual results reflect increased arthropod movement and capture in traps rather than real changes in population size. However, it is unclear whether direct (hyperactivity) or indirect (prey-mediated) mechanisms produce increased movement. Video tracking of Scarites quadriceps Chaudior indicated that brief exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin or tefluthrin increased total distance moved, maximum velocity and percentage of time moving. Repeated measurements on individual beetles indicated that movement decreased 240 min after initial lambda-cyhalothrin exposure, but increased again following a second exposure, suggesting hyperactivity could lead to increased trap captures in the field. Two field experiments in which ground beetles were collected after lambda-cyhalothrin or permethrin application attempted to detect increases in population size estimates as a result of hyperactivity. Field trials used mark-release-recapture methods in small plots and natural carabid populations in larger plots, but found no significant short-term (<6 day) increases in beetle trap captures. The disagreement between laboratory and field results suggests mechanisms other than hyperactivity may better explain unusual changes in population size estimates. When traps are used as a primary sampling tool, unexpected population-level effects should be interpreted carefully or with additional data less influenced by arthropod activity.

  13. Genetic algorithm with small population size for search feasible control parameters for parallel hybrid electric vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Huei Cheng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The control strategy is a major unit in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs. In order to provide suitable control parameters for reducing fuel consumptions and engine emissions while maintaining vehicle performance requirements, the genetic algorithm (GA with small population size is applied to search for feasible control parameters in parallel HEVs. The electric assist control strategy (EACS is used as the fundamental control strategy of parallel HEVs. The dynamic performance requirements stipulated in the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV is considered to maintain the vehicle performance. The known ADvanced VehIcle SimulatOR (ADVISOR is used to simulate a specific parallel HEV with urban dynamometer driving schedule (UDDS. Five population sets with size 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 are used in the GA. The experimental results show that the GA with population size of 25 is the best for selecting feasible control parameters in parallel HEVs.

  14. Population size estimation of female sex workers in Iran: Synthesis of methods and results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Hamid; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; McFarland, Willi; Mirzazadeh, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Estimating the number of key populations at risk of HIV is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluating prevention, care, and treatment programmes. We conducted this study to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in major cities of Iran. We used three population size estimation methods (i.e., wisdom of the crowds, multiplier method, and network scale-up) to calculate the number of FSW in 13 cities in Iran. The wisdom of the crowds and multiplier methods were integrated into a nationwide bio-behavioural surveillance survey in 2015, and the network scale-up method was included in a national survey of the general population in 2014. The median of the three methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult female population who practice sex work in the 13 cities. These figures were then extrapolated to provide a national population size estimation of FSW across urban areas. The population size of FSW was 91,500 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UIs] 61,400-117,700), corresponding to 1.43% (95% UIs 0.96-1.84) of the adult (i.e., 15-49 year-old) female population living in these 13 cities. The projected numbers of FSW for all 31 provincial capital cities were 130,800 (95% UIs 87,800-168,200) and 228,700 (95% UIs 153,500-294,300) for all urban settings in Iran. Using methods of comparable rigor, our study provided a data-driven national estimate of the population size of FSW in urban areas of Iran. Our findings provide vital information for enhancing HIV programme planning and lay a foundation for assessing the impact of harm reduction efforts within this marginalized population.

  15. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  16. Global population structure of the stable fly (Stomoxys calcitrans) inferred by mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dsouli-Aymes, N; Michaux, J; De Stordeur, E; Couloux, A; Veuille, M; Duvallet, G

    2011-03-01

    Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae: Stomoxyini), a synanthropic fly with a worldwide distribution, is recognized to have an important medical and veterinary impact. We conducted a phylogeographic analysis based on several populations from five major zoogeographic regions of the world in order to analyse population genetic structure of S. calcitrans and to trace its global dispersion. Results from mitochondrial (COI, Cyt-b and ND1-16S) and nuclear (ITS2) DNA show a substantial differentiation of Oriental populations (first lineage) from the Afrotropical, Palearctic, Nearctic, Neotropical and Oceanian populations (second lineage). The divergence time analyses suggest the separation between the two lineages approximately in mid-Pleistocene. Oriental populations are isolated and would not have participated in the colonization of other regions, unlike the Afrotropical one which seems to be the source of S. calcitrans dispersion towards other regions. Demographic analyses indicate that Oriental, Afrotropical and Palearctic regions have undergone a population expansion during late Pleistocene-early Holocene. The expansion time of this cosmopolitan species could have been influenced by continental human expansions and by animal domestication. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Tooth size changes with age in a Spanish population: percentile tables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulino, Vera; Paredes, Vanessa; Cibrian, Rosa; Gandia, José-Luis

    2011-09-01

    The aims of this work were: firstly, to draw up tables of percentile tooth sizes similar to those of Sanin and Savara for three age groups of a Spanish population; secondly, to describe changes in tooth size between those groups over time, as well as observing any sexual dimorphism and, finally, to compare both the Spanish and Sanin and Savara 's American population samples. The sample included 359 patients and was divided into three age groups: adolescents, young adults and adults, of both genders. After dental cast digitalization, mesiodistal tooth-size was measured on each dental cast using a digital method. Dental size tables organized by percentiles for each group of age and gender were drawn up. Percentiles under 30 were considered as small, between 30 and 70 as average, and above 70 as large. As symmetry was found between contralateral teeth, the mean between the teeth of the two semi-arches was considered. The mesiodistal tooth sizes of adolescents did not present statistically significant differences between genders, in contrast to the two other age groups. Mesiodistal tooth diameters tended to diminish with age, especially in women, in the Spanish population. The values obtained for our dental tables, organized by percentiles, were slightly higher than those found by Sanin and Savara in an American population, especially for women.

  18. Reference serving sizes for the Brazilian population: An analysis of processed food labels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Kliemann

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To compare serving sizes reported on processed food labels with reference serving sizes according to nutrition labeling legislation and the "Food Guide for the Brazilian Population". METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed the labels of 2,072 processed foods in a supermarket of Florianópolis, Santa Caratina, Brazil. The foods were classified according to the Brazilian food labeling legislation. Central tendency and variability values were calculated for the serving sizes and energy values reported on the labels, as well as the ratio between the reported and reference energy value. The Spearman correlation test was performed between the reference serving size and the reference energy density, and also between the reference serving size and energy density of each study food. RESULTS: Nutrition labeling and the Food Guide presented reference servings with different sizes and energy values. The serving sizes reported on the labels did not follow either of the references and presented heterogeneous values, with a maximum range of 55-240 g among ready and semi-ready pre-prepared dishes. The reported energy values were between 0.1 times smaller and 2.4 times larger than the reference values. The reference serving sizes presented a highly inverse correlation with the reference energy density (Spearman coefficient= 0.9 and a very low inverse correlation with the energy density of the foods analyzed (Spearman coefficient= 0.2. CONCLUSION: This study showed the need for standardizing reference serving size information for the Brazilian population as well as reviewing nutrition labeling legislation in order to standardize the serving sizes reported on labels and to update the reference energy density used to calculate serving sizes.

  19. Interarch tooth size relationship of Indian population: does Bolton's analysis apply?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subbarao, Vummidisetti V; Regalla, Ravindra Reddy; Santi, V; Anita, G; Kattimani, Vivekanand S

    2014-01-01

    Orthodontists have several methods to detect inter arch-tooth size discrepancies in patients presenting for orthodontic treatment. Many methods such as Pont's analysis, Nance and Carey's analysis, Peck and Peck ratio, Bolton's analysis are commonly used methods. A thorough search of literature reveals a paucity of reliable data on the mesiodistal dimensions of the crowns of the permanent dentition of Indian population. Without information about the size of individual tooth and groups of teeth for Indian population, it is difficult for the clinician to make an adequate diagnosis and treatment plan and to carry out a plan of therapy. To determine the size of individual permanent tooth and the sex differences, with tooth size ratios according to Bolton's formula and to evaluate the reliability of Bolton's norms (Anterior/ Posterior) in Indian population. One hundred and twenty cases in which an excellent occlusion was naturally existent with the mean age of 22 years (18-27 years) were selected in the study. The casts were prepared after taking alginate impression of maxillary and mandibular arches and pouring them immediately with dental stone. A sliding Digital Vernier calliper used to measure the teeth. The ratios of the mean of mesiodistal dimensions of types of teeth were computed. The mean overall ratio for the Indian population is found to be 92.11 with a standard deviation of 2.12. The values ranged from 86.50-97.13 and the median is 92.16. The mean anterior ratio for the Indian population is found to be 78.14 with a standard deviation of 2.59. Bolton's original data does not represent Indian population. In our study greater size variability was found in maxillary teeth as compared with mandibular teeth except mandibular first molar. Our study indicated that population-specific standards are necessary for clinical assessments. Significant differences were shown for the overall ratio and anterior ratio for both sexes as compared to Bolton's ratio.

  20. Can small wildlife conservancies maintain genetically stable populations of large mammals? Evidence for increased genetic drift in geographically restricted populations of Cape buffalo in East Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heller, R; Okello, J B A; Siegismund, H

    2010-01-01

    populations, the level of genetic differentiation found here is comparable to that among pan-African populations. Overall, correlations between conservancy area and indices of genetic diversity suggest buffalo populations inhabiting small parks are showing signs of genetic erosion, stressing the need for more......The Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) is one of the dominant and most widespread herbivores in sub-Saharan Africa. High levels of genetic diversity and exceptionally low levels of population differentiation have been found in the Cape buffalo compared to other African savannah ungulates...... active management of such populations. Our findings raise concerns about the future of other African savannah ungulates with lower population sizes and inferior dispersal capabilities compared with the buffalo....

  1. Forms of density regulation and (quasi-) stationary distributions of population sizes in birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Grøtan, Vidar

    2008-01-01

    The theta-logistic model of density regulation is an especially flexible class of density regulation models where different forms of non-linear density regulation can be expressed by only one parameter, u. Estimating the parameters of the thetalogistic model is, however, challenging. This is mainly...... due to the need for information concerning population growth at low densities as well as data on fluctuations around the carrying capacity K in order to estimate the strength of density regulation. Here we estimate parameters of the theta-logistic model for 28 populations of three species of birds...... that have grown from very small population sizes followed by a period of fluctuations around K. We then use these parameters to estimate the quasi-stationary distribution of population size. There were often large uncertainties in these parameters specifying the form of density regulation that were...

  2. Impact of population size on market demand under a market economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y

    1996-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of the relationship between population size and market demand in China. It is argued that a smaller elasticity of a product is related to a greater impact of the size of population on the consumption of such a product. Greater elasticity reduces the impact of population. The impact of population is also mediated by average salary and salary structure. Salary structure affects prices, and prices affect supply and demand, which affect consumption. In a market-oriented economic system, the impact of population size on market demand affects supply and demand and prices. Current market demand reflects the effect of supply and demand in previous periods. Current population size will affect future market demand through prices and supply elasticity. Population changes are slow, and consumption changes are slow. The slowness of the process of change means there is time to adjust production and distribution in order to achieve stability in market supply. Control of price increases and inflation will promote economic growth, social stability, and improvement in China's socialist market economic system. It is argued that the supply of bicycles is elastic. Despite increased investment, labor, and fixed assets, profits will not grow. However the entertainment industry, as well as education, public welfare, urban utilities, noncommercialized housing, and telephones are less elastic. A large consumer population and a smaller supply elasticity result in high costs of installation, which are made higher by the state monopoly. It is argued that in China it is necessary to regulate certain necessities with less market elasticity in order to be consistent with optimum allocation of resources.

  3. cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Nautilus at risk--estimating population size and demography of Nautilus pompilius.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dunstan

    Full Text Available The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia. We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6-77.4 km(-2 dominated by males (83:17 male:female and comprised of few juveniles (<10%.These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide.

  5. Clutch size in populations and species of cnemidophorines (Squamata: Teiidae on the eastern coast of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VANDERLAINE A. MENEZES

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed some reproductive aspects of 16 coastal populations, belonging to five lizard species (A. ocellifera, A. abaetensis, A. nativo, A. littoralis and C. lacertoides from different restinga habitats along the eastern coast of Brazil. This study aimed to evaluate to what extent the reproductive aspects vary geographically and among species. For each female, we recorded the number of vitellogenic follicles, size and color of the largest follicle, presence and size of corpora lutea, and number and size of oviductal eggs. Clutch size of almost all coastal populations/species of Ameivula had little variation and most clutches were composed of two eggs. There was a significant relationship between female size and the mean clutch size when females from different species were pooled. Mean egg volume, among species, varied from 420 to 655 mm3. Relative clutch mass varied from 0.129 to 0.159 and did not differ significantly among species. We concluded that the five coastal species studied (four bisexuals and one parthenogenetic had similar reproductive characteristics. Most of them presented multiple clutches, low clutch size and low relative clutch mass, similar to other species in the genus and to unisexual and bisexual species of the Teiidae family.

  6. Malaria epidemiology in an area of stable transmission in tribal population of Jharkhand, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Das, Manoj K; Prajapati, Brijesh K; Tiendrebeogo, Régis W

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Malaria remains an important health problem in India with approximately 1 million cases in 2014. Of these, 7% occurred in the Jharkhand state mainly in the tribal population. METHODS: This study was conducted in Dumargarhi, a tribal village about 42 km east of Ranchi city, Jharkhand...... monitored fortnightly by manual catching using suction tube method. RESULTS: The study area consists of five hamlets inhabited by 945 individuals living in 164 households as recorded through a house-to-house census survey performed at enrollment. The study population consisted predominantly of the Munda (n......) and Plasmodium vivax (5 cases), respectively. During the high transmission season the mean density of P. falciparum parasitaemia per age group increased to a peak level of 23,601 parasites/μl in the 6-10 years age group and gradually declined in the adult population. Malaria attack rates, parasite prevalence...

  7. The ideal free distribution as an evolutionarily stable state in density-dependent population games

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cressman, R.; Křivan, Vlastimil

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 119, č. 8 (2010), s. 1231-1242 ISSN 0030-1299 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100070601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : density-dependent population games Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.393, year: 2010

  8. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhang

    Full Text Available We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure

  9. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

  10. Methods used to estimate the size of the owned cat and dog population: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, Martin J; Dean, Rachel S; Stavisky, Jenny H; Adams, Vicki J; Grindlay, Douglas J C; Brennan, Marnie L

    2013-06-19

    There are a number of different methods that can be used when estimating the size of the owned cat and dog population in a region, leading to varying population estimates. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate the methods that have been used for estimating the sizes of owned cat and dog populations and to assess the biases associated with those methods.A comprehensive, systematic search of seven electronic bibliographic databases and the Google search engine was carried out using a range of different search terms for cats, dogs and population. The inclusion criteria were that the studies had involved owned or pet domestic dogs and/or cats, provided an estimate of the size of the owned dog or cat population, collected raw data on dog and cat ownership, and analysed primary data. Data relating to study methodology were extracted and assessed for biases. Seven papers were included in the final analysis. Collection methods used to select participants in the included studies were: mailed surveys using a commercial list of contacts, door to door surveys, random digit dialled telephone surveys, and randomised telephone surveys using a commercial list of numbers. Analytical and statistical methods used to estimate the pet population size were: mean number of dogs/cats per household multiplied by the number of households in an area, human density multiplied by number of dogs per human, and calculations using predictors of pet ownership. The main biases of the studies included selection bias, non-response bias, measurement bias and biases associated with length of sampling time. Careful design and planning of studies is a necessity before executing a study to estimate pet populations.

  11. U.S. Immigration Policy, Immigrants' Ages, and U.S. Population Size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, W. Brian; Espenshade, Thomas J.

    If U.S. birthrates remain below the replacement level and are relatively constant, and if immigration is constant both in total numbers and age-sex composition, population size will eventually become stationary, according to this policy discussion paper. Moverover, varying the constant annual number of immigrants produces an equal proportionate…

  12. Rate of inbreeding and effective population size in four major South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    huis

    Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland and the United States. Semen from Taurus, the local AI company, is also used extensively in the South African dairy industry. Literature estimates of rate of inbreeding and effective population size are not currently available for the South African dairy cattle breeds even though the.

  13. Cannibalism in a size-structured population: energy extraction and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persson, L.; Claessen, D.; de Roos, A.M.; Byström, P.; Sjögren, S.; Svanbäck, R.; Wahlström, E.; Westman, E.

    2004-01-01

    Recent size-structured cannibalistic models point to the importance of the energy gain by cannibals and also show that this gain may result in the emergence of giant individuals. We use a combination of a 10-year field study of a perch (Perca fluviatilis) population and quantitative within-season

  14. Cannibalism in a size-structured population: Enery extraction and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persson, L.; Claessen, D.; de Roos, A.M.; Bystrom, P.; Sjogren, S.; Svanback, R.; Wahlstrom, E.; Westman, E.

    2004-01-01

    Recent size-structured cannibalistic models point to the importance of the energy gain by cannibals and also show that this gain may result in the emergence of giant individuals. We use a combination of a 10-year field study of a perch (Perca fluviatilis) population and quantitative within-season

  15. A Comparison of shell size and meat weight between population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comparative study on the shell size and meat weight between Anadara antiquata populations harvested from four intertidal mud flats subjected to varying exploitation pressure in Zanzibar was undertaken between August and December 2000. An analysis of the data from the four study locations Mazizni, Mbweni, ...

  16. Stability patterns for a size-structured population model and its stage-structured counterpart

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Pedersen, Michael; Lin, Zhigui

    2015-01-01

    delayed system consisting of a renewal equation for the consumer population birth rate and a delayed differential equation for the resource. Results show that the size- and stage-structured models differ considerably with respect to equilibrium stability, although the two models have completely identical...

  17. a comparison of shell size and meat weight between populations of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comparative study on the shell size and meat weight between Anadara antiquata populations harvested from four intertidal ... with low meat weights were being harvested from Mazizini and Mbweni in comparison to those harvested from Kisakasaka and ... Elsewhere, Anadara has been cultured in several places including ...

  18. Estimating group size and population density of Eurasian badgers Meles meles by quantifying latrine use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuyttens, F.A.M.; Long, B.; Fawcett, T.W.; Skinner, A.; Brown, J.A.; Cheeseman, C.L.; Roddam, A.W.; MacDonald, D.W.

    2001-01-01

    1. Conservation issues and a potential role in disease transmission generate the continued need to census Eurasian badgers Meles metes, but direct counts and sett counts present difficulties. The feasibility of estimating social group size and population density of badgers by quantifying their use

  19. Rate of inbreeding and effective population size in four major South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Pedigree information on the registered South African Ayrshire (n = 47 116), Guernsey (n = 18 766), Holstein (n = 892 458) and Jersey (n = 314 403) breeds was analyzed to determine the rate of inbreeding and effective population sizes for the period 1960 to 2003. Inbreeding coefficients were calculated using the Animal ...

  20. On periodic cohort solurions of a size-structured population model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W. Huyer

    1995-01-01

    textabstractWe consider a size-structured population model with discontinuous reproduction and feedback through the environmental variable ``substrate''. The model admits solutions with finitely many cohorts and in that case the problem is described by a system of ODEs involving a bifurcation

  1. Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

    2014-07-01

    Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a

  2. Stable Epigenetic Variants Selected from an Induced Hypomethylated Fragaria vesca Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihua Xu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Epigenetic inheritance was transmitted through selection over generations of extreme early, but not late flowering time phenotypic lines in F. vesca. Epigenetic variation was initially induced using the DNA demethylating reagent 5-azacytidine (5-azaC. It is the first report exploring epigenetic variant selection and phenotypic trait inheritance in strawberry, a model plant species for one of the most important temperate fruit crop families, Rosaceae. Transmission frequency of these traits was determined across generations. Early flowering (EF4 and late stolon (LS phenotypic traits were successfully transmitted through meiosis across at least five and two generations, respectively. Stable mitotic transmission of the early flowering phenotype was also demonstrated using clonal daughters derived from the 4th Generation (S4 mother plant. In order to further explore the DNA methylation patterns underlying the early flowering trait, the standard MSAP method using isoschizomers Hpa II / Msp I, and a newly modified MSAP method using isoschizomers Tfi I / Pfe I which detected DNA methylation at CG, CHG, CHH sites were used in two early flowering lines, EF4 lines 1 (P2 and EF4 lines 2 (P3, and control lines (P1. A significant reduction in the number of fully-methylated bands was detected in P2 and P3 when compared to P1 using the novel MSAP method. In the standard MSAP, the symmetric CG and CHG methylation was maintained over generations in the early flowering lines based on the clustering in P2 and P3, while the novel MSAP approach revealed the asymmetric CHH methylation pattern was not maintained over generations. This study provides evidence of stable selection of phenotypic traits, particularly the early flowering phenotype through both meiosis and mitosis, which is meaningful to both breeding programs and commercial horticulture. The maintenance in CG and CHG methylation over generations suggests the early flowering phenotype might be related to DNA

  3. Bacterioplankton communities of Crater Lake, OR: Dynamic changes with euphotic zone food web structure and stable deep water populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbach, E.; Vergin, K.L.; Larson, G.L.; Giovannoni, S.J.

    2007-01-01

    The distribution of bacterial and archaeal species in Crater Lake plankton varies dramatically over depth and with time, as assessed by hybridization of group-specific oligonucleotides to RNA extracted from lakewater. Nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis of relative bacterial phylotype densities revealed complex relationships among assemblages sampled from depth profiles in July, August and September of 1997 through 1999. CL500-11 green nonsulfur bacteria (Phylum Chloroflexi) and marine Group I crenarchaeota are consistently dominant groups in the oxygenated deep waters at 300 and 500 m. Other phylotypes found in the deep waters are similar to surface and mid-depth populations and vary with time. Euphotic zone assemblages are dominated either by ??-proteobacteria or CL120-10 verrucomicrobia, and ACK4 actinomycetes. MDS analyses of euphotic zone populations in relation to environmental variables and phytoplankton and zooplankton population structures reveal apparent links between Daphnia pulicaria zooplankton population densities and microbial community structure. These patterns may reflect food web interactions that link kokanee salmon population densities to community structure of the bacterioplankton, via fish predation on Daphnia with cascading consequences to Daphnia bacterivory and predation on bacterivorous protists. These results demonstrate a stable bottom-water microbial community. They also extend previous observations of food web-driven changes in euphotic zone bacterioplankton community structure to an oligotrophic setting. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  4. Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

    2014-07-01

    Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population

  5. Size and shape heritability in natural populations of Drosophila mediopunctata: temporal and microgeographical variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitner-Mathé, B C; Klaczko, L B

    1999-01-01

    'Traditional morphometrics' allows us to decompose morphological variation into its major independent sources, identifying them usually as size and shape. To compare and investigate the properties of size and shape in natural populations of Drosophila mediopunctata, estimating their heritabilities and analysing their temporal and microgeographic changes, we carried out collections on seven occasions in Parque Nacional do Itatiaia, Brazil. In one of these collections, we took samples from five different altitudes. Measurements were taken from wild caught inseminated females and up to three of their laboratory-reared daughters. Through a principal component analysis, three major sources of variation were identified as due to size (the first one) and shape (the remaining two). The overall amount of variation among laboratory flies was about half of that observed among wild flies and this reduction was primarily due to size. Shape variation was about the same under natural and artificial conditions. A genetic altitudinal cline was detected for size and shape, although altitude explained only a small part of their variation. Differences among collections were detected both for size and shape in wild and laboratory flies, but no simple pattern emerged. Shape variation had high heritability in nature, close to or above 40% and did not vary significantly temporally. Although on the overall size heritability (18 +/- 6%) was significant its estimates were not consistent along months--they were non-significant in all but one month, when it reached a value of 51 +/- 11%. Overall, this suggests that size and shape have different genetic properties.

  6. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  7. Population of Metastable States in Stable Hafnium and Ytterbium Nuclei via Beam Break-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malwela, T.; Ntshangase, S.S.; Shirinda, O.; Bark, R.A.; Gueorguieva, E.; Lawrie, J.J.; Mullins, S.M.; Murray, S.H.T.; Sharpey-Schafer, J.F.; Gal, J.; Kalinka, G.; Krasznahorkay, A.; Molnar, J.; Nyako, B.M.; Timar, J.; Zolnai, L.; Hlatshwayo, T.; Juhasz, K.; Komati, F.S.; Scheurer, J.N.

    2005-01-01

    The ''Chessboard'' section of the DIAMANT charged-particle array has been coupled with the AFRODITE γ-ray spectrometer at the iThemba Laboratory for Accelerator Based Sciences. Charged-particle-γ-ray coincidence data were recorded during the bombardment of a 176Yb target with a 13C beam at an energy of 90 MeV. The purpose of the investigation was to study the population of metastable states in hafium nuclei via incomplete fusion reactions in which the beam breaks up due to its α-cluster character. Of note was the observation of the band based on the Kπ = 16+, T1/2 = 31 year isomer in 178Hf to its 19+ member. Also, decays from the high-K isomeric states in 174Yb and 176Yb. which were populated via 3αxn channels, indicative of complete break-up of the 13C beam

  8. Combining genetic markers and stable isotopes to reveal population connectivity and migration patterns in a neotropical migrant, Wilson's warbler (Wilsonia pusilla).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clegg, Sonya M; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Kimura, Mari; Smith, Thomas B

    2003-04-01

    We used results from the analysis of microsatellite DNA variation and hydrogen stable-isotope ratios to characterize the population structure of a neotropical migrant passerine, the Wilson's warbler (Wilsonia pusilla). The resulting information was then used to infer migration patterns and population connectivity between breeding grounds in North America and overwintering areas in Mexico and Central America. The microsatellite data revealed genetic structure across the North American continent; populations in the west were found to significantly differ from the east. Minimal genetic structure was observed among western sites. The lack of isolation by distance and low variance in FST values suggests that gene flow could play an ongoing role in limiting genetic differentiation among sites in the western part of the distribution. However, additional information including estimates of effective population size and the proximity of the population to equilibrium is required before the role of gene flow can be assessed fully. Analysis of isotope data showed a negative relationship between latitude and hydrogen isotope ratios in breeding ground individuals. There was a positive relationship between wintering ground latitude and hydrogen isotope ratios for individuals that were genetically western in origin. This is consistent with a leapfrog pattern of migration, in which genetically western birds from the northernmost breeding areas overwinter at the most southerly locations in Central America. Additionally, isotopic ratios of western birds suggest that coastal breeders overwinter in western Mexico, while western birds from further inland and at high elevations overwinter in eastern Mexico. Using information from both genetic an isotopic approaches will probably be useful for identifying patterns of migration and population connectivity between breeding and overwintering areas, both important issues for conservation efforts, and may also contribute to investigation of the

  9. The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

    2011-06-01

    Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Urban Optimum Population Size and Development Pattern Based on Ecological Footprint Model: Case of Zhoushan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan LU

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The agglomeration of population in the city can reflect the prosperity in the economy, society and culture. However, it has also brought a series of problems like environmental pollution, traffic congestion, housing shortage and jobs crisis. The results can be shown as the failure of urban comprehensive function, the decline of city benefits, and the contradiction between socioeconomic circumstance and ecosystem. Therefore, a reasonable population capacity, which is influenced by ecological resources, urban environment, geographical elements, social and economic factors, etc., is objectively needed. How to deal with the relationship between the utilization of natural capital and development of the city is extremely essential. This paper takes Zhoushan Island as an example, which is the fourth largest island off the coast of China. Firstly, the interactively influencing factors of urban optimal population are illustrated. And method is chosen to study the optimal population size. Secondly, based on the model of ecological footprint (EP, the paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of the Zhoushan Island, in order to explore the optimal population size of the city. Thirdly, analysis and evaluation of the resources and urban environment carrying capacity is made. Finally, the solution of the existing population problems and the suggestion for the future development pattern of the city are proposed in the urban eco-planning of Zhoushan Island. The main strategies can be summarized in two aspects: one is to reduce the ecological footprint, the other is to increase the ecological supply. The conclusion is that the current population of Zhoushan Island is far beyond the optimum population size calculated by the ecological footprint model. Therefore, sustainable development should be the guidance for urban planning in Zhoushan Island, and a low-carbon development pattern for the city is advocated.

  11. Seeking a stable future: perspectives on population policy. The legal approach: women's rights as human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pine, R N

    1994-01-01

    As it has grappled with issues of population policy, the international community has emphasized that women's reproductive rights are human rights. Scholars have also acknowledged that the right to reproductive health care exists within the scope of international human rights treaties and conventions and that gender equality, nondiscrimination, and freedom from government interference in marriage and family life are also guaranteed. Further protections extend to counseling and health information and referral. The Programme of Action of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development continues this trend by emphasizing the importance of human rights for attaining population and development objectives, calling on governments to focus their efforts on improving the quality of life for individuals, and endorsing the notion that reproductive rights are universal human rights. Reproductive health care options are also influenced by sovereign laws that restrict availability of contraception, sterilization, or abortion. However, universal rights and unrestricted access must be complemented by other factors controlled by domestic laws to guarantee reproductive choice. Such laws cover issues like marriage age, divorce, marital property, child support, maternity benefits, day care, sex discrimination, eligibility for insurance, confidentiality, spousal consent, rape, and sexual abuse. Countries must modify restrictive national laws and promote laws protecting women's rights.

  12. Fourth-Order Method for Numerical Integration of Age- and Size-Structured Population Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iannelli, M; Kostova, T; Milner, F A

    2008-01-08

    In many applications of age- and size-structured population models, there is an interest in obtaining good approximations of total population numbers rather than of their densities. Therefore, it is reasonable in such cases to solve numerically not the PDE model equations themselves, but rather their integral equivalents. For this purpose quadrature formulae are used in place of the integrals. Because quadratures can be designed with any order of accuracy, one can obtain numerical approximations of the solutions with very fast convergence. In this article, we present a general framework and a specific example of a fourth-order method based on composite Newton-Cotes quadratures for a size-structured population model.

  13. Malaria epidemiology in an area of stable transmission in tribal population of Jharkhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Manoj K; Prajapati, Brijesh K; Tiendrebeogo, Régis W; Ranjan, Kumud; Adu, Bright; Srivastava, Amit; Khera, Harvinder K; Chauhan, Narendra; Tevatiya, Sanjay; Kana, Ikhlaq H; Sharma, Surya Kant; Singh, Subhash; Theisen, Michael

    2017-05-02

    Malaria remains an important health problem in India with approximately 1 million cases in 2014. Of these, 7% occurred in the Jharkhand state mainly in the tribal population. This study was conducted in Dumargarhi, a tribal village about 42 km east of Ranchi city, Jharkhand, from May 2014 to September 2016. Four point prevalence surveys were carried out during consecutive high (October-December) and low (June-August) transmission seasons. Malaria cases were recorded from April 2015 to April 2016 through fortnightly visits to the village. Adult mosquito densities were monitored fortnightly by manual catching using suction tube method. The study area consists of five hamlets inhabited by 945 individuals living in 164 households as recorded through a house-to-house census survey performed at enrollment. The study population consisted predominantly of the Munda (n = 425, 45%) and Oraon (n = 217, 23%) ethnic groups. Study participants were categorized as per their age 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and >15 years. There were 99 cases of clinical malaria from April 2015 to April 2016 and all malaria cases confirmed by microscopy were attributed to Plasmodium falciparum (94 cases) and Plasmodium vivax (5 cases), respectively. During the high transmission season the mean density of P. falciparum parasitaemia per age group increased to a peak level of 23,601 parasites/μl in the 6-10 years age group and gradually declined in the adult population. Malaria attack rates, parasite prevalence and density levels in the study population showed a gradual decrease with increasing age. This finding is consistent with the phenomenon of naturally acquired immunity against malaria. Three vector species were detected: Anopheles fluviatilis, Anopheles annularis, and Anopheles culicifacies. The incoherence or complete out of phase pattern of the vector density peaks together with a high prevalence of parasite positive individuals in the study population explains the year-round malaria

  14. Service use over time and achievement of stable housing in a mentally ill homeless population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollio, D E; Spitznagel, E L; North, C S; Thompson, S; Foster, D A

    2000-12-01

    Service use among clients of a multiservice agency serving homeless persons with severe mental illness was examined to determine whether patterns of service use reflected two stages in an adaptation of the transtheoretical model of change. In the adapted model, change occurs in five stages-pre-engagement, contemplation, engagement, the strategic moment, and consolidation. It was hypothesized that rates of service use would be highest immediately after clients obtained housing (the strategic moment) and would decrease in the months afterward (consolidation stage), with the greatest decreases occurring immediately after housing was obtained. Service use data were collected for two groups: a housed group of 58 clients who had obtained and sustained stable housing for at least 24 consecutive months at the time of sampling and an unhoused group of 55 clients who were matched with the housed clients on month of service entry. Total service use and use of three service types-a drop-in center, counseling, and health services-were examined to test the hypotheses. It was hypothesized that use of services by the unhoused group would show a consistent linear decline rather than a two-stage decline. Linear spline regression using bootstrap sampling methods was used to fit service use data for both groups. The two-stage solution significantly modeled the patterns of service use by the housed but not the unhoused clients, supporting the hypotheses. For the housed group, use of the drop-in center and counseling fit the model, and use of health services did not. The results provide limited support for the hypothesized five-stage model for achieving change.

  15. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Lineage restriction maintains a stable organizer cell population at the zebrafish midbrain-hindbrain boundary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenberg, Tobias; Brand, Michael

    2005-07-01

    The vertebrate hindbrain is subdivided into segments, termed neuromeres, that are units of gene expression, cell differentiation and behavior. A key property of such segments is that cells show a restricted ability to mix across segment borders -- termed lineage restriction. In order to address segmentation in the midbrain-hindbrain boundary (mhb) region, we have analyzed single cell behavior in the living embryo by acquiring time-lapse movies of the developing mhb region in a transgenic zebrafish line. We traced the movement of hundreds of nuclei, and by matching their position with the expression of a midbrain marker, we demonstrate that midbrain and hindbrain cells arise from two distinct cell populations. Single cell labeling and analysis of the distribution of their progeny shows that lineage restriction is probably established during late gastrulation stages. Our findings suggest that segmentation as an organizing principle in early brain development can be extended to the mhb region. We argue that lineage restriction serves to constrain the position of the mhb organizer cell population.

  17. Zinc Absorption from Representative Diet in a Chinese Elderly Population Using Stable Isotope Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ya Jie; Li, Min; Liu, Xiao Bing; Ren, Tong Xiang; Li, Wei Dong; Yang, Chun; Wu, Meng; Yang, Lin Li; Ma, Yu Xia; Wang, Jun; Piao, Jian Hua; Yang, Li Chen; Yang, Xiao Guang

    2017-06-01

    To determine the dietary zinc absorption in a Chinese elderly population and provide the basic data for the setting of zinc (Zn) recommended nutrient intakes (RNI) for Chinese elderly people. A total of 24 elderly people were recruited for this study and were administered oral doses of 3 mg 67Zn and 1.2 mg dysprosium on the fourth day. The primary macronutrients, energy, and phytic acid in the representative diet were examined based on the Chinese National Standard Methods. Fecal samples were collected during the experimental period and analyzed for zinc content, 67Zn isotope ratio, and dysprosium content. The mean (± SD) zinc intake from the representative Chinese diet was 10.6 ± 1.5 mg/d. The phytic acid-to-zinc molar ratio in the diet was 6.4. The absorption rate of 67Zn was 27.9% ± 9.2%. The RNI of zinc, which were calculated by the absorption rate in elderly men and women, were 10.4 and 9.2 mg/d, respectively. This study got the dietary Zn absorption in a Chinese elderly population. We found that Zn absorption was higher in elderly men than in elderly women. The current RNI in elderly female is lower than our finding, which indicates that more attention is needed regarding elderly females' zinc status and health. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  18. Predator-driven brain size evolution in natural populations of Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Matthew R.; Broyles, Whitnee; Beston, Shannon M.; Munch, Stephan B.

    2016-01-01

    Vertebrates exhibit extensive variation in relative brain size. It has long been assumed that this variation is the product of ecologically driven natural selection. Yet, despite more than 100 years of research, the ecological conditions that select for changes in brain size are unclear. Recent laboratory selection experiments showed that selection for larger brains is associated with increased survival in risky environments. Such results lead to the prediction that increased predation should favour increased brain size. Work on natural populations, however, foreshadows the opposite trajectory of evolution; increased predation favours increased boldness, slower learning, and may thereby select for a smaller brain. We tested the influence of predator-induced mortality on brain size evolution by quantifying brain size variation in a Trinidadian killifish, Rivulus hartii, from communities that differ in predation intensity. We observed strong genetic differences in male (but not female) brain size between fish communities; second generation laboratory-reared males from sites with predators exhibited smaller brains than Rivulus from sites in which they are the only fish present. Such trends oppose the results of recent laboratory selection experiments and are not explained by trade-offs with other components of fitness. Our results suggest that increased male brain size is favoured in less risky environments because of the fitness benefits associated with faster rates of learning and problem-solving behaviour. PMID:27412278

  19. Reconstructing the diets of Greek Byzantine populations (6th-15th centuries AD) using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbou, Chryssi; Fuller, Benjamin T; Garvie-Lok, Sandra J; Richards, Michael P

    2011-12-01

    Documentary evidence and artistic representations have traditionally served as the primary sources of information about Byzantine diet. According to these sources, Byzantine diet was based on grain (primarily wheat and barley), oil, and wine, supplemented with legumes, dairy products, meat, and marine resources. Here, we synthesize and compare the results of stable isotope ratio analyses of eight Greek Byzantine populations (6th-15th centuries AD) from throughout Greece. The δ(13) C and δ(15) N values are tightly clustered, suggesting that all of these populations likely consumed a broadly similar diet. Both inland and coastal Byzantine populations consumed an essentially land-based C(3) diet, significant amounts of animal protein, and possibly some C(4) plants, while no evidence of a general dependence on low-δ(15) N legumes was observed. One interesting result observed in the isotopic data is the evidence for the consumption of marine protein at both coastal sites (a reasonable expectation given their location) and for some individuals from inland sites. This pattern contrasts with previous isotopic studies mainly on prehistoric Greek populations, which have suggested that marine species contributed little, or not at all, to the diet. The possibility that fasting practices contributed to marine protein consumption in the period is discussed, as are possible parallels with published isotope data from western European medieval sites. 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. The estimation of active social network size of the Iranian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastegari, Azam; Haji-Maghsoudi, Saiedeh; Haghdoost, Aliakbar; Shatti, Mohsen; Tarjoman, Termeh; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza

    2013-06-17

    The size of active network (C) of Iranian population is a very important parameter to estimate the size of unknown population using Network Scale Up (NSU) technique. However, there is little information about this parameter not only in Iran but also in other countries in Middle East region. Based on these needs, the aim of this paper is to estimate C for the Iranian population. Based on available national statistics, 23 reference groups, with known population sizes were selected. Using multistage sampling method, 7454 individuals were recruited randomly around the country. We asked from our samples how many people they knew from each of the reference groups. Using NSU formulae, we maximized the goodness of fit of our estimation about the size of the reference groups by fitting the best C. However, the final C was set by excluding some of the reference groups with no added information; these inappropriate groups were selected by two techniques; regression, and ratio based approaches. Applying regression and ratio based approaches the estimated C was 308 and 380 respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the real and estimated size of reference groups (based on our C) in both methods was above 0.95. However, results of ratio based had better performance. We saw that the network of males, singles, younger age groups, and those with higher education was larger than those in other groups. It seems that C in Iran is higher than that in developed countries, possibly because of its social structure. Because of cultural and social similarities in Middle East courtiers, C in other countries also might be higher than that in developed countries.

  1. Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Laurent; Feldman, Marcus W

    2009-11-07

    Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

  2. Sensitivity of Population Size Estimation for Violating Parametric Assumptions in Log-linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerritse Susanna C.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An important quality aspect of censuses is the degree of coverage of the population. When administrative registers are available undercoverage can be estimated via capture-recapture methodology. The standard approach uses the log-linear model that relies on the assumption that being in the first register is independent of being in the second register. In models using covariates, this assumption of independence is relaxed into independence conditional on covariates. In this article we describe, in a general setting, how sensitivity analyses can be carried out to assess the robustness of the population size estimate. We make use of log-linear Poisson regression using an offset, to simulate departure from the model. This approach can be extended to the case where we have covariates observed in both registers, and to a model with covariates observed in only one register. The robustness of the population size estimate is a function of implied coverage: as implied coverage is low the robustness is low. We conclude that it is important for researchers to investigate and report the estimated robustness of their population size estimate for quality reasons. Extensions are made to log-linear modeling in case of more than two registers and the multiplier method

  3. Size selection from fishways and potential evolutionary responses in a threatened Atlantic salmon population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, George A.; Kinnison, M.T.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

    2017-01-01

    The evolutionary effects of harvest on wild fish populations have been documented around the world; however, sublethal selective pressures can also cause evolutionary changes in phenotypes. For migratory fishes, passage facilities may represent instances of nonlethal selective pressure. Our analysis of 6 years of passage data suggests that certain fish passage facilities on the Penobscot River have been exerting selective pressure against large-bodied, anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). At the second and third dams in the river, a 91-cm salmon was 21%–27% and 12%–16% less likely to pass than a 45-cm salmon, respectively. Fish size positively influences egg survival and number and is a heritable trait. Therefore, in a wild-reproducing population, exclusion of large fish from spawning areas may have population-level impacts. In the Penobscot River, most returning adults derive from a hatchery program that collects its broodstock after passing the first dam in the river. Analysis of fork lengths of salmon returning to the Penobscot River from 1978 to 2012 provided mixed support for evolution of size at maturity in different age classes in a pattern that may be expected from interactions with conservation hatchery operations. Additionally, slow-maturing and iteroparous individuals that represent the largest salmon size classes were essentially lost from the population during that time, and Penobscot River fish have shorter fork lengths at maturity than Atlantic salmon in undammed systems.

  4. Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

    2015-08-01

    Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

  5. Particle-size fractionation and stable carbon isotope distribution applied to the study of soil organic matter dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerri, C.; Feller, C.; Balesdent, J.; Victoria, R.; Plenecassagne, A.

    1985-01-01

    The present Note concerns the dynamics of organic matter in soils under forest (C 3 -type vegetation) and 12 and 50 years old sugar-cane (C 4 -type vegetation) cultivation. The decomposition rate of ‘forest organic matter” and the accumulation rate of “sugar-cane organic matter” are estimated through 13 C measurements of total soil and different organic fractions (particle-size, fractionation) [fr

  6. Size-related stable isotope changes in planktic foraminifera across the "Latest Danian Event" (ODP Site 1262, Walvis Ridge)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lägel, Friederike; Jehle, Sofie; Deprez, Arne; Speijer, Robert; Bornemann, André

    2015-04-01

    The Latest Danian Event (LDE, ~62.15 Ma) represents a transient carbon cycle perturbation on a global scale similar to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, but of a much lower magnitude. This event took place during a time interval that is characterized by major changes in the calcareous plankton communities like the appearance and diversification of the fasciculithid nannolith group and the establishment of dinoflagellate photosymbiosis within the Praemurica/Morozovella planktic foraminifera. Size-related isotope changes (d13C, d18O) of planktic foraminifera might indicate changes in the depth habitat of foraminifera with ontogeny. An increase in d13C with size may point to the existence of (dinoflagellate) photosymbionts, and are often used to identify photosymbiosis in extinct foraminifera. Size fraction data on middle Paleocene taxa are generally rare and only poorly constrained concerning their stratigraphic age. Here we present detailed isotopic data from seven samples across the LDE of seven taxa including the asymbiotic Parasubbotina variospira and various symbiont-bearing taxa of the Praemurica, Morozovella and Igorina lineages that provide new insights into the life style of these taxa. Moreover, we intend to test if photosymbiotic activity changes occur during the LDE.

  7. Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häussler, Johanna; Sahlin, Ullrika; Baey, Charlotte; Smith, Henrik G; Clough, Yann

    2017-03-01

    Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process-based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within- and between-season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting flower visitation rates by wild central-place foragers (e.g., nesting bees) in spatially explicit landscapes. The model goes beyond existing approaches by: (1) integrating preferential use of more rewarding floral and nesting resources; (2) considering population growth over time; (3) allowing different dispersal distances for workers and reproductives; (4) providing visitation rates for use in crop pollination models. We use the model to estimate the effect of establishing grassy field margins offering nesting resources and a low quantity of flower resources, and/or late-flowering flower strips offering no nesting resources but abundant flowers, on bumble bee populations and visitation rates to flowers in landscapes that differ in amounts of linear seminatural habitats and early mass-flowering crops. Flower strips were three times more effective in increasing pollinator populations and visitation rates than field margins, and this effect increased over time. Late-blooming flower strips increased early-season visitation rates, but decreased visitation rates in other late-season flowers. Increases in population size over time in response to flower strips and amounts of linear seminatural habitats reduced this apparent competition for pollinators. Our spatially explicit, process-based model generates emergent patterns reflecting empirical observations, such that adding flower resources may have contrasting short- and long-term effects due to apparent competition for pollinators and pollinator population size increase. It allows exploring these effects and comparing effect sizes in ways not possible with other

  8. Size distribution of retrovirally marked lineages matches prediction from population measurements of cell cycle behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Li; Hayes, Nancy L.; Takahashi, Takao; Caviness, Verne S Jr; Nowakowski, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    Mechanisms that regulate neuron production in the developing mouse neocortex were examined by using a retroviral lineage marking method to determine the sizes of the lineages remaining in the proliferating population of the ventricular zone during the period of neuron production. The distribution of clade sizes obtained experimentally in four different injection-survival paradigms (E11-E13, E11-E14, E11-E15, and E12-E15) from a total of over 500 labeled lineages was compared with that obtained from three models in which the average behavior of the proliferating population [i.e., the proportion of cells remaining in the proliferative population (P) vs. that exiting the proliferative population (Q)] was quantitatively related to lineage size distribution. In model 1, different proportions of asymmetric, symmetric terminal, and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions coexisted during the entire developmental period. In model 2, the developmental period was divided into two epochs: During the first, asymmetric and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions occurred, but, during the second, asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions occurred. In model 3, the shifts in P and Q are accounted for by changes in the proportions of the two types of symmetric cell divisions without the inclusion of any asymmetric cell divisions. The results obtained from the retroviral experiments were well accounted for by model 1 but not by model 2 or 3. These findings demonstrate that: 1) asymmetric and both types of symmetric cell divisions coexist during the entire period of neurogenesis in the mouse, 2) neuron production is regulated in the proliferative population by the independent decisions of the two daughter cells to reenter S phase, and 3) neurons are produced by both asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions. In addition, the findings mean that cell death and/or tangential movements of cells in the proliferative population occur at only a low rate and that there are no

  9. Radial asymmetries in population receptive field size and cortical magnification factor in early visual cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Maria Fatima; Brascamp, Jan W; Ferreira, Sónia; Castelo-Branco, Miguel; Dumoulin, Serge O; Harvey, Ben M

    2017-11-14

    Human visual cortex does not represent the whole visual field with the same detail. Changes in receptive field size, population receptive field (pRF) size and cortical magnification factor (CMF) with eccentricity are well established, and associated with changes in visual acuity with eccentricity. Visual acuity also changes across polar angle. However, it remains unclear how RF size, pRF size and CMF change across polar angle. Here, we examine differences in pRF size and CMF across polar angle in V1, V2 and V3 using pRF modeling of human fMRI data. In these visual field maps, we find smaller pRFs and larger CMFs in horizontal (left and right) than vertical (upper and lower) visual field quadrants. Differences increase with eccentricity, approximately in proportion to average pRF size and CMF. Similarly, we find larger CMFs in the lower than upper quadrant, and again differences increase with eccentricity. However, pRF size differences between lower and upper quadrants change direction with eccentricity. Finally, we find slightly smaller pRFs in the left than right quadrants of V2 and V3, though this difference is very small, and we find no differences in V1 and no differences in CMF. Moreover, differences in pRF size and CMF vary gradually with polar angle and are not limited to the meridians or visual field map discontinuities. PRF size and CMF differences do not consistently follow patterns of cortical curvature, despite the link between cortical curvature and polar angle in V1. Thus, the early human visual cortex has a radially asymmetric representation of the visual field. These asymmetries may underlie consistent reports of asymmetries in perceptual abilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The evolution of harm--effect of sexual conflicts and population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, Laurène; Hosken, David J; Eady, Paul; Vasudev, Ram; Tregenza, Tom

    2011-03-01

    Conflicts of interest between mates can promote the evolution of male traits that reduce female fitness and that drive coevolution between the sexes. The rate of adaptation depends on the intensity of selection and its efficiency, which depends on drift and genetic variability. This leads to the largely untested prediction that coevolutionary adaptations such as those driven by sexual conflict should evolve faster in large populations. We tested this using the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, a species where harm inflicted by males is well documented. Although most experimental evolution studies remove sexual conflict, we reintroduced it in populations in which it had been experimentally removed. Both population size and standing genetic variability were manipulated in a factorial experimental design. After 90 generations of relaxed conflict (monogamy), the reintroduction of sexual conflicts for 30 generations favored males that harmed females and females that were more resistant to the genital damage inflicted by males. Males evolved to become more harmful when population size was large rather than when initial genetic variation was enriched. Our study shows that sexual selection can create conditions in which males can benefit from harming females and that selection may tend to be more intense and effective in larger populations. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Migratory divides and their consequences for dispersal, population size and parasite-host interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P; Garamszegi, L Z; Peralta-Sánchez, J M; Soler, J J

    2011-08-01

    Populations of migratory birds differ in their direction of migration with neighbouring populations often migrating in divergent directions separated by migratory divides. A total of 26% of 103 passerine bird species in Europe had migratory divides that were located disproportionately often along a longitudinal gradient in Central Europe, consistent with the assumption of a Quaternary glacial origin of such divides in the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas followed by recolonization. Given that studies have shown significant genetic differentiation and reduced gene flow across migratory divides, we hypothesized that an absence of migratory divides would result in elevated rates of gene flow and hence a reduced level of local adaptation. In a comparative study, species with migratory divides had larger population sizes and population densities and longer dispersal distances than species without migratory divides. Species with migratory divides tended to be habitat generalists. Bird species with migratory divides had higher richness of blood parasites and higher growth rates of Staphylococcus on their eggs during the incubation period. There was weaker cell-mediated immunity in adults and stronger cell lysis in species with migratory divides. These findings may suggest that migratory divides constitute barriers to dispersal with consequences for ecology and evolution of distributions, population sizes, habitats and parasite-host interactions. They also suggest that migratory divides may play a role in local adaptation in host-parasite interactions. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  12. Study of the normal heart size in Northwest part of Iranian population: a cadaveric study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabnam Mohammadi

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: Mean values of the heart’s length and width was similar to previous reports from western population. The circumference of the tricuspid valve was less than the textbook’s data, while circumference of the mitral valves was more than it. The study findings provide valuable information about standard data of the heart in the Iranian population, which is useful for surgeons as well as anthropologists. However, multi-center studies with a larger sample size are required to complete data about anatomical characteristics of normal hearts.

  13. Finite difference approximations for measure-valued solutions of a hierarchically size-structured population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Chellamuthu, Vinodh K; Ito, Kazufumi

    2015-04-01

    We study a quasilinear hierarchically size-structured population model presented in [4]. In this model the growth, mortality and reproduction rates are assumed to depend on a function of the population density. In [4] we showed that solutions to this model can become singular (measure-valued) in finite time even if all the individual parameters are smooth. Therefore, in this paper we develop a first order finite difference scheme to compute these measure-valued solutions. Convergence analysis for this method is provided. We also develop a high resolution second order scheme to compute the measure-valued solution of the model and perform a comparative study between the two schemes.

  14. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Sved

    Full Text Available There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-12, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1 for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  15. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  16. The effects of food sources on Japanese monkey home range size and location, and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koganezawa, M; Imaki, H

    1999-01-01

    The effects of supplemental feeding by tourists on wild Japanese monkey's home range size and location, and troop size and composition were studied for two monkey troops, Troop A and Troop B, living along the Irohazaka loop road, Nikko National Park, central Japan. Changes were documented based on data gathered from 1982 to 1996 by the use of radio telemetry. Troop A's home range size shrank and changed from separate winter and summer ranges to a single, year-round home range, with its core located in a high elevation area where supplemental feeding by tourists was heavy. Troop B's home range also shrank and shifted to a lower elevation where supplemental feeding by tourists was heavy. Troop A's population size increased between the winters of 1983-1984 and 1990-1991 in conjunction with an increase in human encounter rates, and then decreased. Troop B's size increased until the winter of 1993-1994, and then decreased. The instability of troop size between 1993 and 1996 may be explained by documented factors such as a decrease in the adult sex ratio, an increase in the infant-female ratio, and an increase in juvenile mortality and/or emigration, all of which may have been influenced by supplemental feeding by tourists.

  17. Designs and Methods for Association Studies and Population Size Inference in Statistical Genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waltoft, Berit Lindum

    method provides a simple goodness of t test by comparing the observed SFS with the expected SFS under a given model of population size changes. By the use of Monte Carlo estimation the expected time between coalescent events can be estimated and the expected SFS can thereby be evaluated. Using...... the changes in population size. By adding a penalising term to the goodness-of-t described above, we are able to estimate the integrated intensity of the coalescent process by a two times continuous dierentiable piecewise cubic polynomial.......This dissertation falls in two parts. The rst part discusses statistical modelling of association studies within the eld of epidemiology. A special focus is given to genome-wide association studies (GWAS), which are able to investigate specic associations between positions in the genome and dierent...

  18. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys, and can also be theoretically-predicted from demographic, life-history and mating-system hypotheses. However, by evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically-estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics, as well as the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. Here we describe and demonstrate this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimate the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev = 24.3), and we formulate predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in life-time reproductive success, and heritability of female reproductive success. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we find that polygyny is the strongest factor effecting genetic drift, as only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically-measured N ev , with 10.6% mating males per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ), and 19.5% when it was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female reproductive success was also found to affect N ev , with h f 2 = 0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective population size is of concern, and we suggest specific management actions focusing on factors identified as strongly affecting N ev -increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach - evaluating life-history hypotheses, in light of their impact on effective population size, and

  19. Large indoor cage study of the suppression of stable Aedes aegypti populations by the release of thiotepa-sterilised males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Gato

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The sterile insect technique (SIT is a promising pest control method in terms of efficacy and environmental compatibility. In this study, we determined the efficacy of thiotepa-sterilised males in reducing the target Aedes aegypti populations. Treated male pupae were released weekly into large laboratory cages at a constant ratio of either 5:1 or 2:1 sterile-to-fertile males. A two-to-one release ratio reduced the hatch rate of eggs laid in the cage by approximately a third and reduced the adult catch rate by approximately a quarter, but a 5:1 release drove the population to elimination after 15 weeks of release. These results indicate that thiotepa exposure is an effective means of sterilising Ae. aegypti and males thus treated are able to reduce the reproductive capacity of a stable population under laboratory conditions. Further testing of the method in semi-field enclosures is required to evaluate the mating competitiveness of sterile males when exposed to natural environmental conditions. If proven effective, SIT using thiotepa-sterilised males may be incorporated into an integrated programme of vector control to combat dengue in Cuba.

  20. Large indoor cage study of the suppression of stable Aedes aegypti populations by the release of thiotepa-sterilised males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gato, René; Lees, Rosemary Susan; Bruzon, Rosa Y; Companioni, Ariamys; Menendez, Zulema; González, Aileen; Rodríguez, Misladys

    2014-06-01

    The sterile insect technique (SIT) is a promising pest control method in terms of efficacy and environmental compatibility. In this study, we determined the efficacy of thiotepa-sterilised males in reducing the target Aedes aegypti populations. Treated male pupae were released weekly into large laboratory cages at a constant ratio of either 5:1 or 2:1 sterile-to-fertile males. A two-to-one release ratio reduced the hatch rate of eggs laid in the cage by approximately a third and reduced the adult catch rate by approximately a quarter, but a 5:1 release drove the population to elimination after 15 weeks of release. These results indicate that thiotepa exposure is an effective means of sterilising Ae. aegypti and males thus treated are able to reduce the reproductive capacity of a stable population under laboratory conditions. Further testing of the method in semi-field enclosures is required to evaluate the mating competitiveness of sterile males when exposed to natural environmental conditions. If proven effective, SIT using thiotepa-sterilised males may be incorporated into an integrated programme of vector control to combat dengue in Cuba.

  1. Variability in permanent tooth size of three ancient populations in Xi'an, northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shi-You; Kang, Ting; Liu, Dai-Yun; Duan, Yin-Zhong; Shao, Jin-Ling

    2012-11-01

    This paper compares permanent dental dimensions between three ancient populations that belonged to the same biological population throughout a temporal range of 2000 years to detect temporal trends and metric variation in dentition. The samples analysed were dental remains of 4502 permanent teeth from 321 individuals, which were excavated from three archaeological sites: Chang'an (1000-1300 years BP), Shanren (2200 years BP) and Shaolingyuan (3000 years BP) in the Xi'an region (northern China). For each tooth three standard measurements were taken: Mesiodistal (MD) diameter of crown, labiolingual or buccolingual (BL) diameter of crown and length of root (LR). Three ancient population samples generally displayed the same dental dimensions (p>0.05), whereas some tooth types varied. The Shaolingyuan had larger canine and the smallest maxillary second molars and the Chang'an had the largest mandibular first molars in the MD dimension. The Shanren had the smallest maxillary third molars and mandibular central incisors, and the Chang'an had the smallest maxillary lateral incisors in the BL dimension. In the LR measures, statistically significant differences of five tooth types showed that the Chang'an were smaller than the Shaolingyuan and the Shanren. Comparisons of coefficients of variation for teeth showed that the length of root and third molar usually displayed greater variation. Decreasing or increasing trend for crown size does not occur between the ancient populations, while changes in crown size of a few tooth types fluctuate. The root size is more variable than the crown size and is likely to reflect a degenerated trend in a few tooth types. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Stationary solutions to a system of size-structured populations with nonlinear growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Nobuyuki

    2012-01-01

    We study stationary solutions to a system of size-structured population models with nonlinear growth rate. Several characterizations of stationary solutions are provided. It is shown that the steady-state problem can be converted into different problems such as two types of eigenvalue problems and a fixed-point problem. In the two-species case, we give an existence result of nonzero stationary solutions by using the fixed-point problem.

  3. Asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

    2013-07-01

    The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n - An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, $$n\\left(n-1\\right){T}_{m}/2N\\left(0\\right)$$ follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference.

  4. An Adaptive Genetic Algorithm with Dynamic Population Size for Optimizing Join Queries

    OpenAIRE

    Vellev, Stoyan

    2008-01-01

    The problem of finding the optimal join ordering executing a query to a relational database management system is a combinatorial optimization problem, which makes deterministic exhaustive solution search unacceptable for queries with a great number of joined relations. In this work an adaptive genetic algorithm with dynamic population size is proposed for optimizing large join queries. The performance of the algorithm is compared with that of several classical non-determinis...

  5. Large bottleneck size in Cauliflower Mosaic Virus populations during host plant colonization.

    OpenAIRE

    Baptiste Monsion; Rémy Froissart; Yannis Michalakis; Stéphane Blanc

    2008-01-01

    The effective size of populations (Ne) determines whether selection or genetic drift is the predominant force shaping their genetic structure and evolution. Despite their high mutation rate and rapid evolution, this parameter is poorly documented experimentally in viruses, particularly plant viruses. All available studies, however, have demonstrated the existence of huge within-host demographic fluctuations, drastically reducing Ne upon systemic invasion of different organs and tissues. Notab...

  6. Predation and physical environment structure the density and population size structure of zebra mussels

    OpenAIRE

    Naddafi, Rahmat; Pettersson, Kurt; Eklöv, Peter

    2010-01-01

    The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) provides one example of successful invaders in novel environments. However, little attention has been devoted to exploring the factors regulating zebra mussel density and population size structure at the local scale. We tested effects of physicochemical factors and fish predation on the density of zebra mussels at several sites and between years in a natural lake. Water depth and roach (Rutilus rutilus) density were the most important variables affectin...

  7. FERTILITY VARIATION AND EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE IN A TEAK CLONAL SEED ORCHARD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumardi Sumardi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A 27 year old  clonal seed orchard of teak (Tectona grandis L.f in Padangan, East Java comprising 24 clones, was evaluated for fertility, offspring diversity, and genetic drift. Flower and fruit productions were used to assess clone fertility in the orchard. Fertility variation measured as ‘sibling coefficient’ was found to be 1,62, having high genetic diversity (0,97 and low coancestry (0,03. The clones varied in fertility in which,  25 % of the most fertile clones in the orchard contributed to 47,5 % of flower and fruit yields. Effective population size in the orchard was 15, indicating that 15 of the clones contributed effectively to seed yield. Separating on the amounts of seeds that can be collected, individual collection, and proportional mixing of seed per clone might be useful in restricting over representation of highly reproductive clones thereby increasing genetic diversity in the seed crop. Another way to improve seed yield in the orchard is by increasing the effective population size. Thinning or prunning on highly reproductive clones might be useful in increasing effective population size.

  8. [Industrial waste as indicator of population size: possible utilization in mountain resort tourist stations?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olive, F; Rey, S; Zmirou, D

    1998-09-01

    Epidemiological studies, conducted in touristic resorts, often face the difficulty of assessing the size of the referent population. Recently, some population size indicators, have been tested. Among them, the amount of municipal waste seems to be easy and readily accessible. The purpose of the study is to describe how this indicator can be used in touristic mountain resorts. Four touristic resorts were chosen in Isère departement (France): Alpe d'Huez, Deux Alpes, Chamrousse, plateau du Vercors. The evolution of municipal waste over several years was used to compute an individual output level for residents and for tourists. This waste indicator was compared with data on tourists reservations in hotels in the resorts. We found a good fit during touristic seasons in three resorts (Spearman test). For the last one (Chamrousse), the correlation rate was low. We think that the type of tourism is different in this resort with many non residents. This indicator is reliable but needs further validation by sample surveys across several sites and several types of lodging. We propose to estimate the size of the referent population, based on an individual output of 1 kg per person and per day for residents and 0.5 kg per person per day for tourists.

  9. Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

    2014-01-01

    Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation. PMID:25006879

  10. Bolton tooth size ratio among Sudanese Population sample: A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla Hashim, Ala'a Hayder; Eldin, Al-Hadi Mohi; Hashim, Hayder Abdalla

    2015-01-01

    The study of the mesiodistal size, the morphology of teeth and dental arch may play an important role in clinical dentistry, as well as other sciences such as Forensic Dentistry and Anthropology. The aims of the present study were to establish tooth-size ratio in Sudanese sample with Class I normal occlusion, to compare the tooth-size ratio between the present study and Bolton's study and between genders. The sample consisted of dental casts of 60 subjects (30 males and 30 females). Bolton formula was used to compute the overall and anterior ratio. The correlation coefficient between the anterior ratio and overall ratio was tested, and Student's t-test was used to compare tooth-size ratios between males and females, and between the present study and Bolton's result. The results of the overall and anterior ratio was relatively similar to the mean values reported by Bolton, and there were no statistically significant differences between the mean values of the anterior ratio and the overall ratio between males and females. The correlation coefficient was (r = 0.79). The result obtained was similar to the Caucasian race. However, the reality indicates that the Sudanese population consisted of different racial groups; therefore, the firm conclusion is difficult to draw. Since this sample is not representative for the Sudanese population, hence, a further study with a large sample collected from the different parts of the Sudan is required.

  11. Sample-size calculations for multi-group comparison in population pharmacokinetic experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogungbenro, Kayode; Aarons, Leon

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for calculating sample size for population pharmacokinetic experiments that involve hypothesis testing based on multi-group comparison detecting the difference in parameters between groups under mixed-effects modelling. This approach extends what has been described for generalized linear models and nonlinear population pharmacokinetic models that involve only binary covariates to more complex nonlinear population pharmacokinetic models. The structural nonlinear model is linearized around the random effects to obtain the marginal model and the hypothesis testing involving model parameters is based on Wald's test. This approach provides an efficient and fast method for calculating sample size for hypothesis testing in population pharmacokinetic models. The approach can also handle different design problems such as unequal allocation of subjects to groups and unbalanced sampling times between and within groups. The results obtained following application to a one compartment intravenous bolus dose model that involved three different hypotheses under different scenarios showed good agreement between the power obtained from NONMEM simulations and nominal power. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Estimating the number of sex workers in South Africa: rapid population size estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstant, Tracey L; Rangasami, Jerushah; Stacey, Maria J; Stewart, Michelle L; Nogoduka, Coceka

    2015-02-01

    Although recognized as a vulnerable population, there is no national population size estimate for sex workers in South Africa. A rapid sex worker enumeration exercise was undertaken in twelve locations across the country based on principles of participatory mapping and Wisdom of the Crowd. Sites with a range of characteristics were selected, focusing on level of urbanisation, trucking, mining and borders. At each site, sex worker focus groups mapped local hotspots. Interviews with sex workers at identified hotspots were used to estimate the numbers and genders of sex workers working in each. Estimates provided in the literature were combined with enumeration exercise results to define assumptions that could be applied to a national extrapolation. A working estimate was reached of between 131,000 and 182,000 sex worker in South Africa, or between 0.76 and 1 % of the adult female population. The success of the exercise depended on integral involvement of sex worker peer educators and strong ethical considerations.

  13. Extent of linkage disequilibrium and effective population size in four South African Sanga cattle breeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sithembile Olga Makina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies. This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n=44, Nguni (n=54, Drakensberger (n=47 and Bonsmara breeds (n=46, using Angus (n=31 and Holstein (n=29 as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40-60 kb in Angus (0.21 and Holstein (0.21 and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20. This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r2 ≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000 -50,000 SNPs. However, r2 ≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10-20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20-40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for genome-wide association studies in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne=95 (Nguni, Ne=87 (Drakensberger, Ne=77 (Bonsmara and Ne=41 (Afrikaner. Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa.

  14. Size structure and fertility in an Eriocnema fulva Naudin (Melastomataceae) population in Southeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, P M; Santos, F A M; Martins, F R

    2007-11-01

    Eriocnema fulva Naudin is an endangered perennial herbaceous plant, endemic to Minas Gerais state, Brazil. This study was conducted in the Jambreiro Forest (19 degrees 58' -59'S and 43 degrees 52' -55' W, 800-1100 m altitude). In an attempt to describe the population size structure and its association with individual fertility, fifteen 1 x 1 m contiguous plots were set. We tagged, counted, and measured a total of 260 individuals in 1997, 1998 and 1999. Young individuals with leaf lamina lengths or = 10 cm in length did not reproduce was 2.69%. The highest survival probability of the large-sized individuals confirmed the strong correlation between size and survival. The data indicated that size is important for the fertility of E. fulva, and it may be one of the relevant aspects to be considered for analyses of survival probability. The intraspecific competition, which was indicated by negative correlation between fruit production per size unit and density, can affect fertility, as larger plants had higher fruit production.

  15. Size structure and fertility in an Eriocnema fulva Naudin (Melastomataceae population in Southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PM. Andrade

    Full Text Available Eriocnema fulva Naudin is an endangered perennial herbaceous plant, endemic to Minas Gerais state, Brazil. This study was conducted in the Jambreiro Forest (19° 58' -59'S and 43° 52' -55' W, 800-1100 m altitude. In an attempt to describe the population size structure and its association with individual fertility, fifteen 1 x 1 m contiguous plots were set. We tagged, counted, and measured a total of 260 individuals in 1997, 1998 and 1999. Young individuals with leaf lamina lengths 10 cm in length did not reproduce was 2.69%. The highest survival probability of the large-sized individuals confirmed the strong correlation between size and survival. The data indicated that size is important for the fertility of E. fulva, and it may be one of the relevant aspects to be considered for analyses of survival probability. The intraspecific competition, which was indicated by negative correlation between fruit production per size unit and density, can affect fertility, as larger plants had higher fruit production.

  16. Sexual dimorphism in human cranial trait scores: effects of population, age, and body size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, Heather M; Sholts, Sabrina B; Mosca, Laurel A

    2014-06-01

    Sex estimation from the skull is commonly performed by physical and forensic anthropologists using a five-trait scoring system developed by Walker. Despite the popularity of this method, validation studies evaluating its accuracy across a variety of samples are lacking. Furthermore, it remains unclear what other intrinsic or extrinsic variables are related to the expression of these traits. In this study, cranial trait scores and postcranial measurements were collected from four diverse population groups (U.S. Whites, U.S. Blacks, medieval Nubians, and Arikara Native Americans) following Walker's protocols (total n = 499). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to evaluate the accuracy of these traits in sex estimation, and to test for the effects of population, age, and body size on trait expressions. Results revealed significant effects of population on all trait scores. Sample-specific correct sex classification rates ranged from 74% to 94%, with an overall accuracy of 85% for the pooled sample. Classification performance varied among the traits (best for glabella and mastoid scores and worst for nuchal scores). Furthermore, correlations between traits were weak or nonsignificant, suggesting that different factors may influence individual traits. Some traits displayed correlations with age and/or postcranial size that were significant but weak, and within-population analyses did not reveal any consistent relationships between these traits across all groups. These results indicate that neither age nor body size plays a large role in trait expression, and thus does not need to be incorporated into sex estimation methods. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

    2017-01-01

    Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More impo...

  18. Mixed Fortunes: Ancient Expansion and Recent Decline in Population Size of a Subtropical Montane Primate, the Arunachal Macaque Macaca munzala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Debapriyo; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

    2014-01-01

    Quaternary glacial oscillations are known to have caused population size fluctuations in many temperate species. Species from subtropical and tropical regions are, however, considerably less studied, despite representing most of the biodiversity hotspots in the world including many highly threatened by anthropogenic activities such as hunting. These regions, consequently, pose a significant knowledge gap in terms of how their fauna have typically responded to past climatic changes. We studied an endangered primate, the Arunachal macaque Macaca munzala, from the subtropical southern edge of the Tibetan plateau, a part of the Eastern Himalaya biodiversity hotspot, also known to be highly threatened due to rampant hunting. We employed a 534 bp-long mitochondrial DNA sequence and 22 autosomal microsatellite loci to investigate the factors that have potentially shaped the demographic history of the species. Analysing the genetic data with traditional statistical methods and advance Bayesian inferential approaches, we demonstrate a limited effect of past glacial fluctuations on the demographic history of the species before the last glacial maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. This was, however, immediately followed by a significant population expansion possibly due to warmer climatic conditions, approximately 15,000 years ago. These changes may thus represent an apparent balance between that displayed by the relatively climatically stable tropics and those of the more severe, temperate environments of the past. This study also draws attention to the possibility that a cold-tolerant species like the Arunachal macaque, which could withstand historical climate fluctuations and grow once the climate became conducive, may actually be extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic exploitation, as is perhaps indicated by its Holocene ca. 30-fold population decline, approximately 3,500 years ago. Our study thus provides a quantitative appraisal of these demographically important

  19. Population size, breeding biology and on-land threats of Cape Verde petrel (Pterodroma feae in Fogo Island, Cape Verde.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Militão

    Full Text Available Cape Verde petrel (Pterodroma feae is currently considered near threatened, but little is known about its population size, breeding biology and on land threats, jeopardizing its management and conservation. To improve this situation, we captured, marked and recaptured (CMR birds using mist-nets over 10 years; measured and sexed them; monitored up to 14 burrows, deployed GPS devices on breeders and analyzed activity data of geolocators retrieved from breeders in Fogo (Cape Verde. We set cat traps over the colony and investigated their domestic/feral origin by marking domestic cats from a nearby village with transponders, by deploying GPS devices on domestic cats and by performing stable isotope analyses of fur of the trapped and domestic cats. The population of Fogo was estimated to be 293 birds, including immatures (95% CI: 233-254, CMR modelling. Based on geolocator activity data and nest monitoring we determined the breeding phenology of this species and we found biometric differences between sexes. While monitoring breeding performance, we verified a still ongoing cat predation and human harvesting. Overall, data gathered from trapped cats without transponder, cats GPS trips and the distinct isotopic values between domestic and trapped cats suggest cats visiting the colony are of feral origin. GPS tracks from breeders showed birds left and returned to the colony using the sector NE of the islands, where high level of public lights should be avoided specially during the fledging period. Main threats for the Cape Verde petrel in the remaining breeding islands are currently unknown but likely to be similar to Fogo, calling for an urgent assessment of population trends and the control of main threats in all Cape Verde Islands and uplisting its conservation status.

  20. Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

    2015-01-01

    Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

  1. The roles of ecology, behaviour and effective population size in the evolution of a community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Chih-Ming; Drovetski, Sergei V; Zink, Robert M

    2017-07-01

    Organismal traits such as ecological specialization and migratory behaviour may affect colonization potential, population persistence and degree of isolation, factors that determine the composition and genetic structure of communities. However, studies focusing on community assembly rarely consider these factors jointly. We sequenced 16 nuclear genes and one mitochondrial gene from Caucasian and European populations of 30 forest-dwelling avian species that represent diverse ecological (specialist-generalist) and behavioural (migratory-resident) backgrounds. We tested the effects of organismal traits on population divergence and community assembly in the Caucasus forest, a continental mountain island setting. We found that (i) there is no concordance in divergence times between the Caucasus forest bird populations and their European counterparts, (ii) habitat specialists tend to be more divergent than generalists and (iii) residents tend to be more divergent than migrants. Thus, specialists and residents contribute to the high level of endemism of Caucasus forest avifauna more than do generalists and migrants. Patterns of genetic differentiation are better explained by differences in effective population sizes, an often overlooked factor in comparative studies of phylogeography and speciation, than by divergence times or levels of gene flow. Our results suggest that the Caucasus forest avifauna was assembled through time via dispersal and/or multiple vicariant events, rather than originating simultaneously via a single isolation event. Our study is one of the first multilocus, multispecies analyses revealing how ecological and migratory traits impact the evolutionary history of community formation on a continental island. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Fay

    Full Text Available This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both, and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity, but harder to learn (identification accuracy for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

  3. Differing mechanisms underlie sexual size-dimorphism in two populations of a sex-changing fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark I McCormick

    Full Text Available Variability in the density of groups within a patchy environment lead to differences in interaction rates, growth dynamics and social organization. In protogynous hermaphrodites there are hypothesised trade-offs among sex-specific growth, reproductive output and mortality. When differences in density lead to changes to social organization the link between growth and the timing of sex-change is predicted to change. The present study explores this prediction by comparing the social organisation and sex-specific growth of two populations of a protogynous tropical wrasse, Halichoeres miniatus, which differ in density. At a low density population a strict harem structure was found, where males maintained a tight monopoly of access and spawning rights to females. In contrast, at a high density population a loosely organised system prevailed, where females could move throughout multiple male territories. Otolith microstructure revealed the species to be annual and deposit an otolith check associated with sex-change. Growth trajectories suggested that individuals that later became males in both populations underwent a growth acceleration at sex-change. Moreover, in the high density population, individuals that later became males were those individuals that had the largest otolith size at hatching and consistently deposited larger increments throughout early larval, juvenile and female life. This study demonstrates that previous growth history and growth rate changes associated with sex change can be responsible for the sexual dimorphism typically found in sex-changing species, and that the relative importance of these may be socially constrained.

  4. The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

  5. Field survey on Tamaraw (Bubalus mindorensis - Present population size and herd behavior in wild

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kanai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Tamaraw, an endemic species on the Philippine island of Mindoro, is a critically endangered animal listed by IUCN. Although the population size of tamaraw has been monitored by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of the Philippines annually from 1999, there is no academic report on the wild tamaraw population. Therefore, we investigated the present tamaraw population size and herd behavior in their natural habitat. The study area covered about 4,000 ha of natural grassland located in Mts. Iglit-Baco National Park, with 16 strategically located observation sites. The tamaraw population was counted using the Intensive Concentration Count Method or Simultaneous Multi Vantage Point Counts for five consecutive days in April, 2006. Fresh fecal samples of tamaraws were also collected from seven observation sites to determine prevalence of endoparasites. A total of 263 individuals were observed, consisting of 162 adult (62%, 52 juveniles (estimated ages of 1-4 years: 20% and 49 yearlings (19%. Out of the 263 individuals, 29 (11% were observed solitary, of which the majority were adult males (15/29. On the other hand, the remaining 234 tamaraws formed 71 groups consisting of 2-7 head per group. Out of 65 groups successfully sexed for adult animals, 63 (93% had one or two adult cows with or without calves and 36 (55% had one adult bull. From 15 fresh fecal samples, Coccidia eggs were detected in 10 cases and Fasciola eggs in 3 cases. These results demonstrated that 1 the tamaraw population is still in the critical ranges and there is a considerable deviation in the sex ratio of adult animals and in the proportion of juveniles to yearlings, 2 the tamaraw usually form families consisting of one bull with one or two cows, with the consequence of some solitary bulls, and 3 further analysis is required on the prevalence of endoparasites in the tamaraw.

  6. Large population size predicts the distribution of asexuality in scale insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Laura; Hardy, Nate B; Okusu, Akiko; Normark, Benjamin B

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why some organisms reproduce by sexual reproduction while others can reproduce asexually remains an important unsolved problem in evolutionary biology. Simple demography suggests that asexuals should outcompete sexually reproducing organisms, because of their higher intrinsic rate of increase. However, the majority of multicellular organisms have sexual reproduction. The widely accepted explanation for this apparent contradiction is that asexual lineages have a higher extinction rate. A number of models have indicated that population size might play a crucial role in the evolution of asexuality. The strength of processes that lead to extinction of asexual species is reduced when population sizes get very large, so that the long-term advantage of sexual over asexual reproduction may become negligible. Here, we use a comparative approach using scale insects (Coccoidea, Hemiptera) to show that asexuality is indeed more common in species with larger population density and geographic distribution and we also show that asexual species tend to be more polyphagous. We discuss the implication of our findings for previously observed patterns of asexuality in agricultural pests. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeta Sharma

    Full Text Available Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and

  8. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  9. Compensatory immigration depends on adjacent population size and habitat quality but not on landscape connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turgeon, Katrine; Kramer, Donald L

    2012-11-01

    1. Populations experiencing localized mortality can recover in the short term by net movement of individuals from adjacent areas, a process called compensatory immigration or spillover. Little is known about the factors influencing the magnitude of compensatory immigration or its impact on source populations. Such information is important for understanding metapopulation dynamics, the use of protected areas for conservation, management of exploited populations and pest control. 2. Using two small, territorial damselfish species (Stegastes diencaeus and S. adustus) in their naturally fragmented habitat, we quantified compensatory immigration in response to localized mortality, assessed its impact on adjacent source populations and examined the importance of potential immigrants, habitat quality and landscape connectivity as limiting factors. On seven experimental sites, we repeatedly removed 15% of the initial population size until none remained and immigration ceased. 3. Immigrants replaced 16-72% of original residents in S. diencaeus and 0-69% in S. adustus. The proportion of the source population that immigrated into depleted areas varied from 9% to 61% in S. diencaeus and from 3% to 21% in S. adustus. In S. diencaeus, compensatory immigration was strongly affected by habitat quality, to a lesser extent by the abundance of potential immigrants and not by landscape connectivity. In S. adustus, immigration was strongly affected by the density of potential migrants and not by habitat quality and landscape connectivity. On two control sites, immigration in the absence of creation of vacancies was extremely rare. 4. Immigration occurred in response to localized mortality and was therefore compensatory. It was highly variable, sometimes producing substantial impacts on both depleted and source populations. The magnitude of compensatory immigration was influenced primarily by the availability of immigrants and by the potential improvement in territory quality that they

  10. Mark-resight approach as a tool to estimate population size of one of the world’s smallest goose populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Kevin Kuhlmann; Fælled, Casper Cæsar; Clausen, Preben

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigates the use of a mark–resight procedure to estimate total population size in a local goose population. Using colour-ring sightings of the increasingly scattered population of Light-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla hrota from their Danish staging areas, we estimate...... a total population size of 7845 birds (95% CI: 7252–8438). This is in good agreement with numbers obtained from total counts, emphasizing that this population, although steadily increasing, is still small compared with historic numbers....

  11. Blood pressure and antihypertensive medication profile in a multiethnic Asian population of stable chronic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, Boon Wee; Chua, Horng Ruey; Wong, Weng Kin; Haroon, Sabrina; Subramanian, Srinivas; Loh, Ping Tyug; Sethi, Sunil; Lau, Titus

    2016-05-01

    Clinical practice guidelines recommend different blood pressure (BP) goals for chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Usage of antihypertensive medication and attainment of BP targets in Asian CKD patients remain unclear. This study describes the profile of antihypertensive agents used and BP components in a multiethnic Asian population with stable CKD. Stable CKD outpatients with variability of serum creatinine levels 3 months apart, were recruited. Mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were measured using automated manometers, according to practice guidelines. Serum creatinine was assayed and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) calculated using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation. BP and antihypertensive medication profile was examined using univariate analyses. 613 patients (55.1% male; 74.7% Chinese, 6.4% Indian, 11.4% Malay; 35.7% diabetes mellitus) with a mean age of 57.8 ± 14.5 years were recruited. Mean SBP was 139 ± 20 mmHg, DBP was 74 ± 11 mmHg, serum creatinine was 166 ± 115 µmol/L and GFR was 53 ± 32 mL/min/1.73 m(2). At a lower GFR, SBP increased (p < 0.001), whereas DBP decreased (p = 0.0052). Mean SBP increased in tandem with the number of antihypertensive agents used (p < 0.001), while mean DBP decreased when ≥ 3 antihypertensive agents were used (p = 0.0020). Different targets are recommended for each BP component in CKD patients. A majority of patients cannot attain SBP targets and/or exceed DBP targets. Research into monitoring and treatment methods is required to better define BP targets in CKD patients. Copyright: © Singapore Medical Association.

  12. Sonographic determination of normal spleen size in an adult African population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mustapha, Zainab; Tahir, Abdulrahman [Department of Radiology, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Borno State (Nigeria); Tukur, Maisaratu [Department of Human Physiology, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Borno State (Nigeria); Bukar, Mohammed [Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Borno State (Nigeria); Lee, Wai-Kit, E-mail: leewk33@hotmail.co [Department of Medical Imaging, St. Vincent' s Hospital, University of Melbourne, 41 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy, Victoria 3065 (Australia)

    2010-07-15

    Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the normal range of spleen size in an adult African population, and compare the findings to published data to determine any correlation with ethnicity. Materials and methods: Three hundred and seventy-four African adults without conditions that can affect the spleen or splenic abnormalities were evaluated with ultrasonography. Spleen length, width and thickness were measured and spleen volume calculated. Spleen size was correlated with age, gender, height, weight, and body mass index. Results: The mean spleen volume was 120 cm{sup 3}. Spleen volume correlated with spleen width (r = 0.85), thickness (r = 0.83) and length (r = 0.80). Men had a larger mean spleen volume than women. No correlation was found between spleen volume and age, weight, height, or body mass index. Conclusion: Mean spleen volume in African adults is smaller than data from Western sources, and cannot be explained by difference in body habitus.

  13. mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

    2008-02-01

    The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

  14. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Lawrence

    Full Text Available Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  15. A Population of planetary systems characterized by short-period, Earth-sized planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, Jason H.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.

    2016-01-01

    We analyze data from the Quarter 1–17 Data Release 24 (Q1–Q17 DR24) planet candidate catalog from NASA’s Kepler mission, specifically comparing systems with single transiting planets to systems with multiple transiting planets, and identify a population of exoplanets with a necessarily distinct system architecture. Such an architecture likely indicates a different branch in their evolutionary past relative to the typical Kepler system. The key feature of these planetary systems is an isolated, Earth-sized planet with a roughly 1-d orbital period. We estimate that at least 24 of the 144 systems we examined (≳17%) are members of this population. Accounting for detection efficiency, such planetary systems occur with a frequency similar to the hot Jupiters. PMID:27790984

  16. Adaptive Protein Evolution in Animals and the Effective Population Size Hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Galtier

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rate at which genomes adapt to environmental changes and the prevalence of adaptive processes in molecular evolution are two controversial issues in current evolutionary genetics. Previous attempts to quantify the genome-wide rate of adaptation through amino-acid substitution have revealed a surprising diversity of patterns, with some species (e.g. Drosophila experiencing a very high adaptive rate, while other (e.g. humans are dominated by nearly-neutral processes. It has been suggested that this discrepancy reflects between-species differences in effective population size. Published studies, however, were mainly focused on model organisms, and relied on disparate data sets and methodologies, so that an overview of the prevalence of adaptive protein evolution in nature is currently lacking. Here we extend existing estimators of the amino-acid adaptive rate by explicitly modelling the effect of favourable mutations on non-synonymous polymorphism patterns, and we apply these methods to a newly-built, homogeneous data set of 44 non-model animal species pairs. Data analysis uncovers a major contribution of adaptive evolution to the amino-acid substitution process across all major metazoan phyla-with the notable exception of humans and primates. The proportion of adaptive amino-acid substitution is found to be positively correlated to species effective population size. This relationship, however, appears to be primarily driven by a decreased rate of nearly-neutral amino-acid substitution because of more efficient purifying selection in large populations. Our results reveal that adaptive processes dominate the evolution of proteins in most animal species, but do not corroborate the hypothesis that adaptive substitutions accumulate at a faster rate in large populations. Implications regarding the factors influencing the rate of adaptive evolution and positive selection detection in humans vs. other organisms are discussed.

  17. Scaling relationship for NO2 pollution and urban population size: a satellite perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamsal, L N; Martin, R V; Parrish, D D; Krotkov, N A

    2013-07-16

    Concern is growing about the effects of urbanization on air pollution and health. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) released primarily from combustion processes, such as traffic, is a short-lived atmospheric pollutant that serves as an air-quality indicator and is itself a health concern. We derive a global distribution of ground-level NO2 concentrations from tropospheric NO2 columns retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Local scaling factors from a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model (GEOS-Chem) are used to relate the OMI NO2 columns to ground-level concentrations. The OMI-derived surface NO2 data are significantly correlated (r = 0.69) with in situ surface measurements. We examine how the OMI-derived ground-level NO2 concentrations, OMI NO2 columns, and bottom-up NOx emission inventories relate to urban population. Emission hot spots, such as power plants, are excluded to focus on urban relationships. The correlation of surface NO2 with population is significant for the three countries and one continent examined here: United States (r = 0.71), Europe (r = 0.67), China (r = 0.69), and India (r = 0.59). Urban NO2 pollution, like other urban properties, is a power law scaling function of the population size: NO2 concentration increases proportional to population raised to an exponent. The value of the exponent varies by region from 0.36 for India to 0.66 for China, reflecting regional differences in industrial development and per capita emissions. It has been generally established that energy efficiency increases and, therefore, per capita NOx emissions decrease with urban population; here, we show how outdoor ambient NO2 concentrations depend upon urban population in different global regions.

  18. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manan Gupta

    Full Text Available Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates

  19. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

    2017-01-01

    Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the

  20. Founder representation and effective population size in old versus young breeds-genetic diversity of Finnish and Nordic Spitz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumpulainen, M; Anderson, H; Svevar, T; Kangasvuo, I; Donner, J; Pohjoismäki, J

    2017-10-01

    Finnish Spitz is 130-year-old breed and has been highly popular in Finland throughout its history. Nordic Spitz is very similar to Finnish Spitz by origin and use, but is a relatively recent breed with much smaller population size. To see how breed age and breeding history have influenced the current population, we performed comprehensive population genetic analysis using pedigree data of 28,119 Finnish and 9,009 Nordic Spitzes combined with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 135 Finnish and 110 Nordic Spitzes. We found that the Finnish Spitz has undergone repeated male bottlenecks resulting in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, reflected by 20 effective founders (f a ) and mean heterozygosity (Hz) of 0.313. The realized effective population size in the breed based on pedigree analysis (N¯ec) is 168, whereas the genetic effective population size (N eg ) computed the decay of linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ) is only 57 individuals. Nordic Spitz, although once been near extinction, has not been exposed to similar repeated bottlenecks than Finnish Spitz and had f a of 27 individuals. However, due to the smaller total population size, the breed has also smaller effective population size than Finnish Spitz (N¯ec = 98 and N eg  = 49). Interestingly, the r 2 data show that the effective population size has contracted dramatically since the establishment of the breed, emphasizing the role of breed standards as constrains for the breeding population. Despite the small population size, Nordic Spitz still maintains SNP heterozygosity levels similar to mixed breed dogs (mean Hz = 0.409). Our study demonstrates that although pedigree analyses cannot provide estimates of the present diversity within a breed, the effective population sizes inferred from them correlate with the genotyping results. The genetic relationships of the northern Spitz breeds and the benefits of the open breed registry are discussed. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Stable right ventricular size and function during short-term follow-up in patients with pulmonary regurgitation after tetralogy of Fallot repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Śpiewak, M.; Małek, Ł.A.; Petryka, J.; Biernacka, E.K.; Hoffman, P.; Demkow, M.; Miśko, J.; Rużyłło, W.

    2013-01-01

    Aim: To assess changes in ventricular size and function over time in conservatively treated adult patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) and significant pulmonary regurgitation (PR). Materials and methods: Patients with repaired TOF who had undergone more than one cardiac magnetic resonance study were identified. To confine the cause of ventricular size and function deviation to PR, patients with residual ventricular septal defect, more than mild regurgitation at a valve other than the pulmonary valve, and known coronary artery disease were excluded. Results: The final analysis included 27 adults with PR fraction >20%. During a follow-up of mean 2.1 ± 0.8 years, there was no change in right ventricular (RV) end-diastolic volume (EDV; 162.1 ± 27.6 versus 164 ± 29.6 ml/m 2 , p = 0.5). Left ventricular (LV) EDV showed a small decrease (85.1 ± 16.2 versus 81.5 ± 14.1 ml/m 2 , p = 0.02). The mean PR fraction, PR volume, and peak RV outflow tract gradient did not change. Additionally, both RV ejection fraction (EF) and LVEF remained stable over the follow-up period (48.1 ± 6.5 versus 48.4 ± 6.7%, p = 0.83, and 57.3 ± 5.4 versus 57.2 ± 5.1 %, p = 0.91, respectively). Only two asymptomatic patients (7.4% of the study group) developed symptoms and the remaining did not deteriorate. Conclusion: The RVEDV, RVEF, and LVEF remained stable over a mean follow-up of approximately 2 years in the majority of adult patients after TOF repair with significant PR and a wide range of RVEDV

  2. Family reintegration of children and adolescents in foster care in Brazilian municipalities with different population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iannelli, Andrea M; Assis, Simone Gonçalves; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach; Pinto, Liana Wenersbach

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this article is to present and analyze data from Brazilian foster care services for children / adolescents from the perspective of family reintegration. It also seeks to support the implementation of public policies in order to provide effective reintegration in accordance with the differing local contexts. It uses data from 1,157 municipalities that have foster care services. The methodology takes into account the data collection of 2,624 Brazilian centers and 36,929 children and adolescents in care. The growing number of children/adolescents in care is in line with the increase in population size: 8.4 per small city; 60 per large city and 602.4 per metropolis. With respect to care residence in a different municipality there are varying indices: 12.4% in metropolises and 33.6% in small cities, revealing the absence of centers close to family units in the smaller communities. Regarding the activities promoted together with families, it was seen that there are still units that do not perform any activities, which runs contrary to Brazilian law. It is clear that policies for the child/adolescent in foster care centers need to consider the capacity of the municipality in accordance with population size to implement support actions for families to assist in family reintegration.

  3. Parameters in the estimation of the most suitable F2 population size in conventional maize (Zea mays L. breeding programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delić Nenad

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to observe differences among four sizes of the F2 populations (100, 200, 300 and 500 plants on the basis of test-crosses for grain yield according to the average values of the populations, genetic and phenotypic variances, genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variations and broad-sense heritability. The values of genetic variance did not significantly differ over population sizes according to all possible comparisons, including the comparison of values obtained for the phenotypic variance. Furthermore, the values of broadsense heritability (67.8%-69% did not significantly vary over different F2 population sizes. Genetic variability of the observed progenies, as a principal prerequisite of successful selection, was at the satisfactory level in all population sizes.

  4. [Population size and behavior pattern of Grus canadensis nesiotes (Aves: Gruidae) in two localities of Cuba].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer-Sánchez, Yarelys; Ruiz, Idael; Denis, Dennis; Torres, Yordanis; Abasolo-Pacheco, Fernando; Plasencia-Vázquez, Alexis H

    2016-12-01

    The availability of information on species abundance in the Neotropic is insufficient, and this prevents the execution of precise analysis and the definition of adequate conservation strategies for endemic and threatened species. This study aimed to analyze the population size of the endemic and threatened subspecies Grus canadensis nesiotes. For this, a simultaneous census was undertaken in 24 count stations in Isla de la Juventud (IJ) and 32 stations in Ciego de Ávila (CA), Cuba, during two consecutive days between 2008 and 2010. Abundance and behavior pattern (instantaneous method) were analyzed by habitat type, to help understand how cranes modify their behavioral pattern when the natural habitat is changed. Flocks in IJ had three individuals, and between 1.9 ± 1.5 and 2.8 ± 1.5 in CA. Population size in IJ was 164 individuals, and in CA of 137, 141 and 168 individuals for the 2008-2010 period, respectively. The counting efficacy was high (IJ: 91 %; CA: 81-87 %) and the numerical concordance was intermediate (IJ: 45.4 %; CA: 72 %). When comparing the habitat type, the abundance was higher in natural savannahs (83), followed by coastal flats (59), pines (23) and cattle pastures (7) in IJ; while in CA, marsh grasslands hosted the greatest abundance for the three years period (130; 120; 112), followed by grassland with palms (2; 17; 51) and cattle pastures (5; 4; 5). The cranes were fed more in cattle pastures and were more alert in natural savannas and marsh grasslands. The frequency of feeding and alert behaviors was different from the natural savannah/coastal flats and natural savannah/cattle pastures combinations in IJ. For CA, differences were found between marsh grasslands and marsh grasslands with palms. The population size increased by management strategies adopted in CA; nevertheless, might be affected by habitat loss associated with invasive alien plants in IJ. We propose the maintenance of prescribed fire in marsh grasslands under protection regime

  5. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D Bjornlie

    Full Text Available Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE, recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis, an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  6. The impact of population size on the evolution of asexual microbes on smooth versus rugged fitness landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, Andreas; Rozen, Daniel E

    2009-09-18

    It is commonly thought that large asexual populations evolve more rapidly than smaller ones, due to their increased rate of beneficial mutations. Less clear is how population size influences the level of fitness an asexual population can attain. Here, we simulate the evolution of bacteria in repeated serial passage experiments to explore how features such as fitness landscape ruggedness, the size of the mutational target under selection, and the mutation supply rate, interact to affect the evolution of microbial populations of different sizes. We find that if the fitness landscape has many local peaks, there can be a trade-off between the rate of adaptation and the potential to reach high fitness peaks. This result derives from the fact that whereas large populations evolve mostly deterministically and often become trapped on local fitness peaks, smaller populations can follow more stochastic evolutionary paths and thus locate higher fitness peaks. We also find that the target size of adaptation and the mutation rate interact with population size to influence the trade-off between rate of adaptation and final fitness. Our study suggests that the optimal population size for adaptation depends on the details of the environment and on the importance of either the ability to evolve rapidly or to reach high fitness levels.

  7. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  8. Body size and obesity patterns in Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Hilton; Padez, Cristina

    2010-04-01

    In many developing countries overweight, obesity and obesity-related morbidity are becoming a problem of increasing public health importance. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in body size and body composition with age in adults of the Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon as well as to examine the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults aged 20-75 years, taking into account recent trends for the whole country. Caboclo are genetically and culturally admixed rural peasant groups that live along the Amazon River and its tributaries in Brazil, and there are few previous studies of their health and lifestyle. A total of 304 subjects (149 males and 155 females) from two socioecologically different areas were studied. Height, weight and skinfolds (tricipital, subscapular and suprailiac) were measured; international intervals (WHO) for overweight and obesity were used. Women showed significantly lower values than men for height, weight, upper arm circumference and fat-free mass and higher values for triceps, subscapular and suprailiac skinfolds and body fat (%). In the overall sample combined overweight and obesity was 47.8% in men and 50.8% in women. When compared to recent values published for the Northern region and for the whole of Brazil, 20.5% of Caboclo women aged 20-75 years were obese, which is higher than all other populations, including other rural samples. Caboclo men showed the highest rates of obesity (9.1%) and overweight (39.1%) of any rural population from the country, including Northern Brazil. The results suggest an effect of increased Western lifestyle influence on the body composition of these Caboclo populations. Considering that these are rural populations with limited access to education and health care, the high prevalence of overweight and obesity associated with low socio-economic status makes them a vulnerable group that deserves a higher level of attention by the country's public health authorities.

  9. Population and size distribution of solute-rich mesospecies within mesostructured aqueous amino acid solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawor-Baczynska, Anna; Moore, Barry D; Lee, Han Seung; McCormick, Alon V; Sefcik, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Aqueous solutions of highly soluble substances such as small amino acids are usually assumed to be essentially homogenous systems with some degree of short range local structuring due to specific interactions on the sub-nanometre scale (e.g. molecular clusters, hydration shells), usually not exceeding several solute molecules. However, recent theoretical and experimental studies have indicated the presence of much larger supramolecular assemblies or mesospecies in solutions of small organic and inorganic molecules as well as proteins. We investigated both supersaturated and undersaturated aqueous solutions of two simple amino acids (glycine and DL-alanine) using Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS), Brownian Microscopy/Nanoparticles Tracking Analysis (NTA) and Cryogenic Transmission Electron Microscopy (Cryo-TEM). Colloidal scale mesospecies (nanodroplets) were previously reported in supersaturated solutions of these amino acids and were implicated as intermediate species on non-classical crystallization pathways. Surprisingly, we have found that the mesospecies are also present in significant numbers in undersaturated solutions even when the solute concentration is well below the solid-liquid equilibrium concentration (saturation limit). Thus, mesopecies can be observed with mean diameters ranging from 100 to 300 nm and a size distribution that broadens towards larger size with increasing solute concentration. We note that the mesospecies are not a separate phase and the system is better described as a thermodynamically stable mesostructured liquid containing solute-rich domains dispersed within bulk solute solution. At a given temperature, solute molecules in such a mesostructured liquid phase are subject to equilibrium distribution between solute-rich mesospecies and the surrounding bulk solution.

  10. State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

  11. Tiller size/population density compensation in grazed Coastcross bermudagrass swards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sbrissia André Fischer

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Several compensatory mechanisms in pastures do not allow optimisation of responses from the processes of herbage production and utilisation. Compensation due to tiller size/density relationships is one of these mechanisms. This experiment evaluated this process for Coastcross bermudagrass and compared the responses to those reported for temperate forages. Treatments were "steady state" sward surface heights of 5, 10, 15, and 20 cm that were maintained from August, 1998, through July, 1999 by sheep grazing. The experimental design was a randomised complete block, replicated four times. Pasture responses were evaluated on four separate dates (15/12/1998, 25/01/1999, 07/04/1999 and 04/07/1999 with respect to: tiller population density, tiller weight, leaf mass and leaf area per tiller and herbage mass (biomass. Tiller volume, leaf area index (LAI, tiller leaf:stem ratio and tiller leaf area:volume ratio (R were calculated. Simple regression analyses between tiller population density and tiller weight were also performed. Coastcross swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism where high tiller population densities were associated with small tillers and vice-versa; except on the last evaluation. However, regression analysis revealed linear coefficients of -3.83 to -2.05, which are lower than the theoretical expectation of -3/2. The lower R values observed, when compared to those reported for perennial ryegrass, suggest that Coastcross swards optimised their LAI via clonal integration among tillers in contrast with tillers of cool-season grasses that respond more as individuals. However, this hypothesis has yet to be experimentally verified.

  12. Prediction of Un-erupted Canine and Premolar Tooth Size in Mixed Dentition among Bangladeshi Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chokrobrty, R; Rafique, T; Ghosh, R; Biswas, A K; Sajedeen, M; Hassan, G S

    2017-10-01

    Accurate prediction of the space available to accommodate the size of the un-erupted canines and premolars plays an important role in mixed dentition in Orthodontics. This Descriptive cross sectional study was carried out in the Department of Orthodontics of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University from July 2014 to June 2015. Dental study models of 140 patients were taken as sample. The sample was consisted of 54 Bangladeshi males and 86 females aged between 12 to 17 years and without any previous orthodontic treatment fully erupted permanent teeth and with no dental anomalies were recruited. The study was done by measuring the mesio-distal dimensions of teeth over the dental cast. A pre-structured data collection form which includes the particulars of the patient and data was filled. All patients were having a serial number to maintain their confidentiality. The study protocol was approved by "Institutional Review Board" of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU), Dhaka, Bangladesh. Un-paired t test were used to examine differences between genders, correlation coefficients and linear regression equations were used to carry out the analysis. Descriptive statistics including means, standard deviations, and minimum-maximum values were calculated. Unpaired sample 't' tests were carried out to compare tooth size between the sexes. Logistic regression for development of new prediction formula on the basis of study sample of our population. Pearson correlation coefficient test for found the correlation between mandibular incisors and mandibular and maxillary canine and premolars in each quadrant. The difference between the present study with that of Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston were statistically significant (p<0.001). The values from Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston methods exceed while comparing to Bangladeshi population. Therefore, Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston method of prediction are not applicable for our population.

  13. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  14. Large effective population size and temporal genetic stability in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Eg Nielsen, Einar; Swain, Douglas P.

    2010-01-01

    were used to estimate the effective population size. Over the period, we observed no loss of either heterozygosity or allelic diversity. Several of the estimation methods applied could not distinguish the effective population size from infinity, and the lower 95% confidence limit on estimates...... was generally >500, suggesting that the effective population size is probably considerably larger than this. Hence, it appears that the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock has maintained genetic variability to sustain future evolution despite a dramatic population decline......Worldwide, many commercial fish stocks have experienced dramatic declines due to overfishing. Such fisheries-induced population reductions could potentially erode the genetic diversity of marine fish populations. Based on analyses of DNA extracted from archived and contemporary samples, this paper...

  15. The Hawkesbury-Nepean region: has the optimum population size been exceeded?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A; Pearson, B

    1995-01-01

    The Australian Federal Government has not included population size as an intersectoral component of the environmentally sustainable development process. The aim of this article is to show how water quality is a key indicator of environmental degradation and of declines in the quality of life. This study is an analysis of the environmental impacts of population on the Hawkesbury-Nepean River System and of the costs involved in change. Environmental degradation is viewed as the result of population size, per capita consumption, the quality of technology, and the organization of space and technology. The quantity and quality of freshwater systems are considered to be useful indicators of environmental degradation over large spatial areas because the impacts are associated with both land and water environments. The catchment area of this river system covers about 231,730 sq. km (68% bushland, 5% urban, 25% agricultural, and 0.1% industrial). About 45% of the land area is protected due to six dams, which provide 98% of water used in Sydney, Illawarra, and the Blue Mountains. Estimated population usage is 600,000-700,000 people. River flows are modified by dams, sewage discharges, water abstractions, and urban run-off from development. River use includes tourism, fishing, and recreation. The system suffers from severe eutrophication, bacterial contamination, toxic pollution, and hypoxia. The conclusion was reached after many years of concern that large-scale development should be deferred. However, housing plans continue for a 70% population increase by 2008. Sewage treatment improvements are costly. Alternatives are re-use of effluents ($2.5-3.5 billion for nonpotable use and $4-4.5 billion for potable use), diversion to the ocean ($3 billion), zero river discharge ($8400 per property for installation and $700 per annum maintenance), or inland disposal ($19 billion). Environmental protection efforts are also costly: $45 million worth of water for flushing away an algal

  16. The limits of weak selection and large population size in evolutionary game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Allen, Benjamin

    2017-11-01

    Evolutionary game theory is a mathematical approach to studying how social behaviors evolve. In many recent works, evolutionary competition between strategies is modeled as a stochastic process in a finite population. In this context, two limits are both mathematically convenient and biologically relevant: weak selection and large population size. These limits can be combined in different ways, leading to potentially different results. We consider two orderings: the [Formula: see text] limit, in which weak selection is applied before the large population limit, and the [Formula: see text] limit, in which the order is reversed. Formal mathematical definitions of the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] limits are provided. Applying these definitions to the Moran process of evolutionary game theory, we obtain asymptotic expressions for fixation probability and conditions for success in these limits. We find that the asymptotic expressions for fixation probability, and the conditions for a strategy to be favored over a neutral mutation, are different in the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] limits. However, the ordering of limits does not affect the conditions for one strategy to be favored over another.

  17. Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

    2018-03-01

    The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

  18. Satellite monitoring of glaciers in the Karakoram from 1977 to 2013: an overall almost stable population of dynamic glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brahmbhatt, R. M.; Bahuguna, I. M.; Rathore, B. P.; Singh, S. K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Shah, R. D.; Kargel, J. S.

    2015-03-01

    Six hundred and seven glaciers of the Shigar, Shashghan, Nubra and part of Shyok sub-basins of the Karakoram region were monitored using satellite data of years 1977, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013. Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and IRS/Resourcesat-1 LISS III data were used. Glacier observations were classified into 3 categories such as advance, retreat or stable with reference to base data of 1977. Glaciers of the Karakoram have shown inconsistency in advance, retreat and no change during this period, and some examples of glacier surging have been caught in action. Despite significant geographic and temporal variability betraying the dynamic nature of many of the glaciers, in aggregate the population is roughly stable with less propensity toward retreat than most other glaciers in the nearby Himalaya and in the world. 341 glaciers exhibited no measured change throughout the 36 years of the study. Among other glaciers, no significant and sustained pattern of retreat or advance was observed. The overall changes in glacier area in the whole region are of small magnitudes (positive and negative values) in the various measured intervals. Moreover, it is mostly disconnected glaciers in tributary valleys which have advanced, whereas the main former trunk glaciers have primarily not changed. The dynamical differences between disconnected former tributaries and trunks may be related to response time differences, with the smaller, perhaps steeper tributaries responding more rapidly than trunks to brief climatic fluctuations. The advance/retreat fluctuations of many individual glaciers suggest that their response times primarily may be of order decades rather than some longer period, though some glaciers may have longer response times that have limited their length and area changes over the 36 year study period. The data from 2001 onwards were also utilized for finding annual changes of glaciers. Among the 607 glaciers, 10 show considerable

  19. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

  20. Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Ezoe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

  1. Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

    2012-01-01

    Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

  2. Investigation of mercury-containing proteins by enriched stable isotopic tracer and size-exclusion chromatography hyphenated to inductively coupled plasma-isotope dilution mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Junwen; Feng Weiyue; Wang Meng; Zhang Fang; Li Bai; Wang Bing; Zhu Motao; Chai Zhifang

    2007-01-01

    In order to investigate trace mercury-containing proteins in maternal rat and their offspring, a method of enriched stable isotopic tracer ( 196 Hg and 198 Hg) combined with size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) coupled to inductively coupled plasma-isotope dilution mass spectrometry (ICP-IDMS) was developed. Prior to the analysis, 196 Hg- and 198 Hg-enriched methylmercury was administrated to the pregnant rats. Then the mercury-containing proteins in serum and brain cytosol of the dam and pup rats were separated by size-exclusion columns and the mercury was detected by ICP-MS. The ICP-MS spectrogram of the tracing samples showed significantly elevated 196 Hg and 198 Hg isotopic signals compared with the natural ones, indicating that the detection sensitivity could be increased by the tracer method. The contents of mercury in chromatographic fractions of the dam and pup rat brain cytosol were quantitatively estimated by post-column reverse ID-ICP-MS. The quantitative speciation differences of mercury in brain cytosol between the dam and pup rats were observed, indicating that such studies could be useful for toxicological estimation. Additionally, the isotopic ratio measurement of 198 Hg/ 202 Hg in the tracing samples could be used to identify the artifact mercury species caused in the analytical procedure. The study demonstrates that the tracer method combined with high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-ICP-IDMS could provide reliably qualitative and quantitative information on mercury-containing proteins in organisms

  3. Performance and microbial population dynamics during stable operation and reactivation after extended idle conditions in an aerobic granular sequencing batch reactor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiulai; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Shilu; Zou, Zhuocheng; Wang, Hongyu

    2017-08-01

    The evolution of removal performance and bacterial population dynamics of an aerobic granular sequencing batch reactor were investigated during stable operation and reactivation after prolonged storage. The system was run for a period of 130days including the stable condition phase, storage period and the subsequent reactivation process. Excellent removal performance was obtained during the stable operation period, which was decayed by the extended idle conditions. The removal efficiencies for both carbon and nitrogen decayed while phosphorus removal remained unaffected. Both granules structure and physical properties could be fully restored. Microbial populations shifted sharply and the storage perturbations irreversibly altered the microbial communities at different levels. Extracellular polymeric substances (especially protein) and key groups were identified as contributors for storage and re-startup of the aerobic granular system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimating Divergence Time and Ancestral Effective Population Size of Bornean and Sumatran Orangutan Subspecies Using a Coalescent Hidden Markov Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mailund, Thomas; Dutheil, Julien; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-01-01

    event has occurred to split them apart. The size of these segments of constant divergence depends on the recombination rate, but also on the speciation time, the effective population size of the ancestral population, as well as demographic effects and selection. Thus, inference of these parameters may......, and the ancestral effective population size. The model is efficient enough to allow inference on whole-genome data sets. We first investigate the power and consistency of the model with coalescent simulations and then apply it to the whole-genome sequences of the two orangutan sub-species, Bornean (P. p. pygmaeus......) and Sumatran (P. p. abelii) orangutans from the Orangutan Genome Project. We estimate the speciation time between the two sub-species to be thousand years ago and the effective population size of the ancestral orangutan species to be , consistent with recent results based on smaller data sets. We also report...

  5. Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Resident Nonimmigrant Population in the United States: January 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the size and characteristics of the resident nonimmigrant population in the United States. The estimates are daily averages for the...

  6. Population size structure of non-native fishes along longitudinal gradients in a highly regulated Mediterranean basin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Amat-Trigo

    2015-10-01

    Documented changes in fish size metrics at population levels can demonstrate trends in non-native fishes at basin scale, however, the collinearity with spatial gradients and the species-specific response could make it a difficult undertaking.

  7. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  8. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  9. Complementary methods to estimate population size of Antillean Manatees (Sirenia: Trichechidae) at Cienaga de Paredes, Santander, Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    G.K. Arevalo-Gonzalez; D.N. Castelblanco-Martinez; P. Sanchez-Palomino; H.F. Lopez-Arevalo; M. Marmontel

    2014-01-01

    Information on manatee population size in Colombia is limited. This study was aimed at determining manatee population size in the Cienaga de Paredes (Colombia) by three different methods: boat-based surveys, side-scan Sonar (SSS) surveys and local interviews. Manatees were counted during breathing events by direct observation during the dry season, with the number of sightings per hour (NSH) and maximum number of simultaneous sightings (MNSS) used as occurrence indices. In 2002, we obtained...

  10. Prediction of the size of unerupted canines and premolars in an Iranian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashaallah Khanehmasjedi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: One of the important aspects of diagnosis and treatment planning in the mixed dentition is estimation of the size of unerupted permanent canines and premolars. One of the most commonly used the prediction methods are Tanaka and Johnston, which are based on data from a sample of Northern European descent children. The accuracy of this method when applied to a different ethnic population is questionable. The aim of this study was to determine the modified equations from Tanaka and Johnston for Iranian population. Materials and Methods: This study was an analytic and cross-sectional investigation with the randomized cluster sampling in Ahwaz. Fifty four students of 14-18 years age (32 girls, 22 boys were selected between 320 students and plaster models of their maxillary and mandibular arches were prepared. Subjects had fully erupted teeth, class I canine and molar relationship and presented no proximal caries or fillings, morphological anomalies, missing teeth or occlusal abrasion, and bruxism. The mesiodistal crown diameters of the permanent teeth were measured with using the sharpened boley gauge (accuracy 0.01 mm. The data were analyzed by using the regression correlation analyses and t-test. Results: The size of permanent canines and premolars were larger in maxilla than mandible and males than females. These values in Iran were different from other countries. Conclusion: In this study to predict the space (in mm required for alignment of unerupted canine and premolars in Iranian children, halve the sum of mesiodistal dimension of the four mandibular incisors and add the respective constants 10.5 for upper jaw and 10 for lower jaw.

  11. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lela Sulaberidze

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region.In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries.The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 3,243~9,088. This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53% of the adult male population in Tbilisi.Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53% of the adult male population in Tbilisi fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

  12. Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John; Boomer, G. Scott; Devers, Patrick K.; Garrettson, Pamela R.

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

  13. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

    2016-01-01

    An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243~9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

  14. Size of the lower third molar space in relation to age in Serbian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelić, Ksenija; Nedeljković, Nenad

    2013-10-01

    It is considered that the shortage of space is the major cause of the third molar impaction. The aim of this study was to establish the frequency of insufficient lower third molar eruption space in Serbian population, to question the differences in this frequency in the subjects of different age, to determine the influence of the lower third molar space (retromolar space) size on third molar eruption, and to investigate a possible correlation between the size of gonial angle and the space/third molar width ratio. Digital orthopantomograms were taken from 93 patients divided into two groups: early adult (16-18 years of age) and adult (18-26) patients. Retromolar space, mesiodistal third molar crown width, gonial angle and eruption levels were measured. The space/third molar width in early adult subjects was smaller (p third molars erupted in case of enough space in both age groups (p third molar width ratio is more favorable in adult subjects. Gonial angle is not in correlation with the retromolar space/third molar width ratio.

  15. Eating patterns and portion size associated with obesity in a Swedish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Christina; Lappas, Georgios; Wolk, Alicja; Strandhagen, Elisabeth; Torén, Kjell; Rosengren, Annika; Thelle, Dag; Lissner, Lauren

    2009-02-01

    The objective of this study was to describe the association between meal pattern and obesity. The study is based on data from the INTERGENE research programme, and the study population consists of randomly selected women and men, aged 25-74, living in the Västra Götaland Region in Sweden. A total of 3610 were examined. Participants with measured BMI> or =30 were compared with others (BMIportions. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals were adjusted for age, sex, smoking and physical activity in logistic regression models. Being obese was significantly associated with omitting breakfast, OR 1.41 (1.05-1.90), omitting lunch OR 1.31 (1.04-1.66) and eating at night OR 1.62 (1.10-2.39). Obesity was also related to significantly larger self-reported portion sizes of main meals. No statistically significant relationship with intake of total energy was revealed. Thus, the results indicate that examination of meal patterns and portion sizes might tell us more about obesogenic food patterns than traditional nutrient analyses of food frequencies. Being obese was associated with a meal pattern shifted to later in the day and significantly larger self-reported portions of main meals.

  16. Cell size dependent toxicity thresholds of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to natural and cultured phytoplankton populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Echeveste, Pedro, E-mail: pedro.echeveste@uib.e [Department of Global Change Research, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB) Instituto Mediterraneo de Estudios Avanzados, Miquel Marques 21, 07190 Esporles (Spain); Agusti, Susana, E-mail: sagusti@uib.e [Department of Global Change Research, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB) Instituto Mediterraneo de Estudios Avanzados, Miquel Marques 21, 07190 Esporles (Spain); Dachs, Jordi, E-mail: jdmqam@cid.csic.e [Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Studies (IDAEA-CSIC), Jordi Girona Salgado 18, 08034 Barcelona (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    The toxicity of pyrene and phenanthrene to phytoplankton was studied by analyzing the effect on the growth, abundance and cell viability of cultured species and natural communities of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. A decrease in cell abundance, and growth rate was observed as concentration of PAHs increased, with catastrophic cell mortality induced at the highest PAH concentration tested. A strong positive linear relationship was observed between the LC50 (the PAH concentration at which cell population will decline by a half), and the species cell volume, for both phenanthrene and pyrene. Natural communities were however significantly more sensitive to PAHs than cultured phytoplankton, as indicated by the lower slope (e.g. 0.23 and 0.65, respectively, for pyrene) of the relationship LC50 vs. cell volume. The results highlight the importance of cell size in determining the phytoplankton sensitivity to PAHs identifying the communities from the oligotrophic ocean to be more vulnerable. - Cell size is the major factor determining phytoplankton sensitivity to PAHs.

  17. Development of an online database of typical food portion sizes in Irish population groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert

    2013-01-01

    The Irish Food Portion Sizes Database (available at www.iuna.net) describes typical portion weights for an extensive range of foods and beverages for Irish children, adolescents and adults. The present paper describes the methodologies used to develop the database and some key characteristics of the portion weight data contained therein. The data are derived from three large, cross-sectional food consumption surveys carried out in Ireland over the last decade: the National Children's Food Survey (2003-2004), National Teens' Food Survey (2005-2006) and National Adult Nutrition Survey (2008-2010). Median, 25th and 75th percentile portion weights are described for a total of 545 items across the three survey groups, split by age group or sex as appropriate. The typical (median) portion weights reported for adolescents and adults are similar for many foods, while those reported for children are notably smaller. Adolescent and adult males generally consume larger portions than their female counterparts, though similar portion weights may be consumed where foods are packaged in unit amounts (for example, pots of yoghurt). The inclusion of energy under-reporters makes little difference to the estimation of typical portion weights in adults. The data have wide-ranging applications in dietary assessment and food labelling, and will serve as a useful reference against which to compare future portion size data from the Irish population. The present paper provides a useful context for researchers and others wishing to use the Irish Food Portion Sizes Database, and may guide researchers in other countries in establishing similar databases of their own.

  18. Ethnic differences in fetal size and growth in a multi-ethnic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sletner, Line; Rasmussen, Svein; Jenum, Anne Karen; Nakstad, Britt; Jensen, Odd Harald Rognerud; Vangen, Siri

    2015-09-01

    Impaired or excessive fetal growth is associated with adverse short- and long-term health outcomes that differ between ethnic groups. We explored ethnic differences in fetal size and growth from mid pregnancy until birth. Data are from the multi-ethnic STORK-Groruddalen study, a population-based, prospective cohort of 823 pregnant women and their offspring in Oslo, Norway. Measures were z-scores of estimated fetal weight (EFW), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL), in gestational week 24, 32 and 37, measured by ultrasound, and similar measures at birth. Differences in fetal size and growth were assessed using separate Linear Mixed Models including all four time points, with ethnic Europeans as reference. In week 24 South Asian fetuses had smaller AC, but larger FL than Europeans, and slightly lower EFW (-0.17 SD (-0.33, -0.01), p=0.04). Middle East/North African fetuses also had larger FL, but similar AC, and hence slightly higher EFW (0.18 (0.003, 0.36), p=0.05). Both groups had slower growth of AC, FL and EFW from this time until birth, and had -0.61 SD (-0.73, -0.49) and -0.28 SD (-0.41, -0.15) lower birth weight respectively. Ethnic East Asians, on the other hand, were smaller throughout pregnancy and had -0.58 SD (-0.82, -0.34) lower birth weight. Significant ethnic differences remained after adjusting for maternal factors. We observed ethnic differences in fetal size and body proportions already in gestational week 24, and in fetal growth from this time until birth, which were only partly explained by key maternal factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Two Test Items to Explore High School Students' Beliefs of Sample Size When Sampling from Large Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bill, Anthony; Henderson, Sally; Penman, John

    2010-01-01

    Two test items that examined high school students' beliefs of sample size for large populations using the context of opinion polls conducted prior to national and state elections were developed. A trial of the two items with 21 male and 33 female Year 9 students examined their naive understanding of sample size: over half of students chose a…

  20. Diel variation in the sizes of larvae of Bugula neritina in field populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosman, Ellen T; Pernet, Bruno

    2009-02-01

    The scale of planktonic larval dispersal affects a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recent work suggests that the dispersal ability of obligately lecithotrophic larvae is influenced by the amount of energy supplied to each larva: larger larvae may stay in the plankton longer and thus travel greater distances than smaller larvae. We examined a prediction of this hypothesis in the bryozoan Bugula neritina, which each morning releases brooded larvae that settle within a few hours. If larger larvae stay in the plankton longer than smaller larvae, than larger larvae should increase in frequency in the planktonic population as the day progresses. However, field surveys revealed a negative relationship between time of day and the sizes of planktonic larvae. Because these results may have been complicated by prolonged larval release, we sequestered groups of brooding colonies in field mesocosms to examine release patterns. Larvae were released over a period of 8-9 h, with smaller larvae increasing in frequency as the day progressed. We conclude that populations of larvae of B. neritina may not be homogenous in energetic content throughout the day; this must be taken into consideration when designing studies of many aspects of larval biology.

  1. Estimation of a closed population size of tadpoles in temporary pond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, M S C S; Pederassi, J; Souza, C A S

    2017-09-28

    The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue. When comparing the results of Lincoln-Petersen estimator corresponding to the Venn diagram and Bayes theorem, we detected percentage differences per sampling, i.e., the proportion of sampled anuran genera is kept among the three methods, although the values are numerically different. By submitting these results to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we have found no significant differences. Therefore, no matter the estimator, the measured value is adherent and estimates the total population. Together with the marking methodology, which did not change the behavior of tadpoles, the present study helps to fill the need of more studies on larval phase of amphibians in Brazil, especially in semi-arid northeast.

  2. Estimation of avian population sizes and species richness across a boreal landscape in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, C.M.; Swanson, S.A.; Nigro, Debora A.; Matsuoka, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    We studied the distribution of birds breeding within five ecological landforms in Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, a 10,194-km2 roadless conservation unit on the Alaska-Canada border in the boreal forest zone. Passerines dominated the avifauna numerically, comprising 97% of individuals surveyed but less than half of the 115 species recorded in the Preserve. We used distance-sampling and discrete-removal models to estimate detection probabilities, densities, and population sizes across the Preserve for 23 species of migrant passerines and five species of resident passerines. Yellow-rumped Warblers (Dendroica coronata) and Dark-eyed Juncos (Junco hyemalis) were the most abundant species, together accounting for 41% of the migrant passerine populations estimated. White-winged Crossbills (Loxia leucoptera), Boreal Chickadees (Poecile hudsonica), and Gray Jays (Perisoreus canadensis) were the most abundant residents. Species richness was greatest in the Floodplain/Terrace landform flanking the Yukon River but densities were highest in the Subalpine landform. Species composition was related to past glacial history and current physiography of the region and differed notably from other areas of the northwestern boreal forest. Point-transect surveys, augmented with auxiliary observations, were well suited to sampling the largely passerine avifauna across this rugged landscape and could be used across the boreal forest region to monitor changes in northern bird distribution and abundance. ?? 2009 The Wilson Ornithological Society.

  3. On being the right size: the impact of population size and stochastic effects on the evolution of drug resistance in hospitals and the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouyos, Roger D; Abel Zur Wiesch, Pia; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2011-04-01

    The evolution of drug resistant bacteria is a severe public health problem, both in hospitals and in the community. Currently, some countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. Emergent resistant strains often originate in health care facilities, but it is unknown to what extent hospital size affects resistance evolution and the resulting spillover of hospital-associated pathogens to the community. We used two published datasets from the US and Ireland to investigate the effects of hospital size and controlled for several confounders such as antimicrobial usage, sampling frequency, mortality, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in a hospital strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the increase of hospital-acquired infections over time. One interpretation of this pattern is that chance effects in small hospitals impede the spread of drug-resistance. To investigate to what extent the size distribution of hospitals can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use a stochastic epidemiological model describing the spread of drug resistance in a hospital setting as well as the interaction between one or several hospitals and the community. We show that the level of drug resistance typically increases with population size: In small hospitals chance effects cause large fluctuations in pathogen population size or even extinctions, both of which impede the acquisition and spread of drug resistance. Finally, we show that indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs can reduce the effect of hospital size because the slow turnover in the environment can prevent extinction of resistant strains. This implies that reducing environmental transmission is especially important in small hospitals, because such a reduction not only

  4. Long-term effective population sizes, temporal stability of genetic composition and potential for local adaptation in anadromous brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Ruzzante, D.E.; Eg Nielsen, Einar

    2002-01-01

    We examined the long-term temporal (1910s to 1990s) genetic variation at eight microsatellite DNA loci in brown trout (Salmo trutta L) collected from five anadromous populations in Denmark to assess the long-term stability of genetic composition and to estimate effective population sizes (N...... temporal samples from the same populations than among samples from different populations. Estimates of N-e, using a likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method, revealed N-e greater than or equal to 500 in two of three populations for which we have historical data. A third population in a small...... adaptations resulting from strong selection were expected to occur at the level of individual populations. Adaptations resulting from weak selection were more likely to occur on a regional basis, i.e. encompassing several populations. N-e appears to have declined recently in at least one of the studied...

  5. The abundance and pollen foraging behaviour of bumble bees in relation to population size of whortleberry (Vaccinium uliginosum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Mayer

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects on plant pollinator interactions, for example changing the foraging behaviour of pollinators. To date, the impact of plant population size on pollen collection by pollinators has not yet been investigated. From 2008 to 2010, we monitored nine bumble bee species (Bombus campestris, Bombus hortorum s.l., Bombus hypnorum, Bombus lapidarius, Bombus pascuorum, Bombus pratorum, Bombus soroensis, Bombus terrestris s.l., Bombus vestalis s.l. on Vaccinium uliginosum (Ericaceae in up to nine populations in Belgium ranging in size from 80 m(2 to over 3.1 ha. Bumble bee abundance declined with decreasing plant population size, and especially the proportion of individuals of large bumble bee species diminished in smaller populations. The most remarkable and novel observation was that bumble bees seemed to switch foraging behaviour according to population size: while they collected both pollen and nectar in large populations, they largely neglected pollen collection in small populations. This pattern was due to large bumble bee species, which seem thus to be more likely to suffer from pollen shortages in smaller habitat fragments. Comparing pollen loads of bumble bees we found that fidelity to V. uliginosum pollen did not depend on plant population size but rather on the extent shrub cover and/or openness of the site. Bumble bees collected pollen only from three plant species (V.uliginosum, Sorbus aucuparia and Cytisus scoparius. We also did not discover any pollination limitation of V. uliginosum in small populations. We conclude that habitat fragmentation might not immediately threaten the pollination of V. uliginosum, nevertheless, it provides important nectar and pollen resources for bumble bees and declining populations of this plant could have negative effects for its pollinators. The finding that large bumble bee species abandon pollen collection when plant populations become small is of interest when

  6. The evolutionary consequences of habitat fragmentation: Body morphology and coloration differentiation among brook trout populations of varying size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zastavniouk, Carol; Weir, Laura K; Fraser, Dylan J

    2017-09-01

    A reduction in population size due to habitat fragmentation can alter the relative roles of different evolutionary mechanisms in phenotypic trait differentiation. While deterministic (selection) and stochastic (genetic drift) mechanisms are expected to affect trait evolution, genetic drift may be more important than selection in small populations. We examined relationships between mature adult traits and ecological (abiotic and biotic) variables among 14 populations of brook trout. These naturally fragmented populations have shared ancestry but currently exhibit considerable variability in habitat characteristics and population size (49 habitat variation or operational sex ratio than to population size, suggesting that selection may overcome genetic drift at small population size. Phenotype-environment associations were also stronger in females than males, suggesting that natural selection due to abiotic conditions may act more strongly on females than males. Our results suggest that natural and sexual-selective pressures on phenotypic traits change during the process of habitat fragmentation, and that these changes are largely contingent upon existing habitat conditions within isolated fragments. Our study provides an improved understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences of habitat fragmentation and lends insight into the ability of some small populations to respond to selection and environmental change.

  7. Investigation of mercury-containing proteins by enriched stable isotopic tracer and size-exclusion chromatography hyphenated to inductively coupled plasma-isotope dilution mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi Junwen [Laboratory for Bio-Environmental Health Sciences of Nanoscale Materials and Key Laboratory of Nuclear Analytical Techniques, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)]|[Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Feng Weiyue [Laboratory for Bio-Environmental Health Sciences of Nanoscale Materials and Key Laboratory of Nuclear Analytical Techniques, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)]. E-mail: fengwy@mail.ihep.ac.cn; Wang Meng [Laboratory for Bio-Environmental Health Sciences of Nanoscale Materials and Key Laboratory of Nuclear Analytical Techniques, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)]|[Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Zhang Fang [Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Li Bai [Laboratory for Bio-Environmental Health Sciences of Nanoscale Materials and Key Laboratory of Nuclear Analytical Techniques, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Wang Bing; Zhu Motao [Laboratory for Bio-Environmental Health Sciences of Nanoscale Materials and Key Laboratory of Nuclear Analytical Techniques, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)]|[Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Chai Zhifang [Laboratory for Bio-Environmental Health Sciences of Nanoscale Materials and Key Laboratory of Nuclear Analytical Techniques, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)]|[Institute of Nuclear Technology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060 (China)]|[Institute of Nanochemistry and Nanosafety, Shanghai University, Shanghai (China)

    2007-01-30

    In order to investigate trace mercury-containing proteins in maternal rat and their offspring, a method of enriched stable isotopic tracer ({sup 196}Hg and {sup 198}Hg) combined with size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) coupled to inductively coupled plasma-isotope dilution mass spectrometry (ICP-IDMS) was developed. Prior to the analysis, {sup 196}Hg- and {sup 198}Hg-enriched methylmercury was administrated to the pregnant rats. Then the mercury-containing proteins in serum and brain cytosol of the dam and pup rats were separated by size-exclusion columns and the mercury was detected by ICP-MS. The ICP-MS spectrogram of the tracing samples showed significantly elevated {sup 196}Hg and {sup 198}Hg isotopic signals compared with the natural ones, indicating that the detection sensitivity could be increased by the tracer method. The contents of mercury in chromatographic fractions of the dam and pup rat brain cytosol were quantitatively estimated by post-column reverse ID-ICP-MS. The quantitative speciation differences of mercury in brain cytosol between the dam and pup rats were observed, indicating that such studies could be useful for toxicological estimation. Additionally, the isotopic ratio measurement of {sup 198}Hg/{sup 202}Hg in the tracing samples could be used to identify the artifact mercury species caused in the analytical procedure. The study demonstrates that the tracer method combined with high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-ICP-IDMS could provide reliably qualitative and quantitative information on mercury-containing proteins in organisms.

  8. Intraspecific competition affects population size and resource allocation in an ant dispersing by colony fission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulay, Raphaël; Galarza, Juan A; Chéron, Blandine; Hefetz, Abraham; Lenoir, Alain; van Oudenhove, Louise; Cerdá, Xim

    2010-11-01

    Intraspecific competition is a pervasive phenomenon with important ecological and evolutionary consequences, yet its effect in natural populations remains controversial. Although numerous studies suggest that in many cases populations across all organisms are limited by density-dependent processes, this conclusion often relies on correlative data. Here, using an experimental approach, we examined the effect of intraspecific competition on population regulation of the ant Aphaenogaster senilis. In this species females are philopatric while males disperse by flying over relatively long distances. All colonies were removed from 15 experimental plots, except for one focal colony in each plot, while 15 other plots remained unmanipulated. After the first reproductive season, nest density in the experimental plots returned to a level nonsignificantly different from that in the control plots, which was not expected if the populations were indeed regulated by density-independent phenomena. In both the control plots and the experimental plots colonies remained overdispersed throughout the experiment, suggesting colony mutual exclusion. Nests outside the plots rapidly extended their foraging span, but we did not detect any significant inward migration into the experimental plots. Experimental reduction in density did not significantly affect the focal colonies' biomass, measured just before the first reproductive season. However, the ratio of males to workers-pupae biomasses was smaller in experimental plots, suggesting that colonies there had redirected part of the resources normally allocated to male production to the production instead of new workers. Microsatellite analysis indicated that, after the reproductive season, many colonies in the experimental plots were headed by a young queen that was the mother of the brood but not of the old workers, indicating that reduction in colony density stimulated fission of the remaining colonies. Finally, at the end of the

  9. Plasma vitellogenin in male teleost fish from 43 rivers worldwide is correlated with upstream human population size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desforges, Jean-Pierre W.; Peachey, Brendan D.L.; Sanderson, Pauline M. [Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, 30 Marie Curie Street, K1N 6N5, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); White, Paul A. [Environmental Health Sciences and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Blais, Jules M., E-mail: jules.blais@uottawa.c [Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, 30 Marie Curie Street, K1N 6N5, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-10-15

    It has been previously demonstrated that vitellogenin (VTG) - a precursor egg yolk protein - is produced in male fish exposed to estrogenic compounds in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. However, little attention has been given to examine whether any patterns of male VTG production exists across fish species on a global scale. We hypothesized that a composite measure of human population size over river discharge would best explain variations of protein levels in male fish. We compiled VTG data in 13 fish species from 43 rivers receiving municipal WWTP effluent on 3 continents. We found that human population size explained 28% of the variation in male VTG concentrations, whereas population/flow rate failed to significantly correlate with VTG. We suggest this result may be explained by the low solubility of estrogenic compounds, resulting in localized contamination near WWTP outfalls, rather than dilution by river water. - Concentrations of vitellogenin in riverine teleost fish were related to population size.

  10. Allometric scaling of population variance with mean body size is predicted from Taylor's law and density-mass allometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Joel E; Xu, Meng; Schuster, William S F

    2012-09-25

    Two widely tested empirical patterns in ecology are combined here to predict how the variation of population density relates to the average body size of organisms. Taylor's law (TL) asserts that the variance of the population density of a set of populations is a power-law function of the mean population density. Density-mass allometry (DMA) asserts that the mean population density of a set of populations is a power-law function of the mean individual body mass. Combined, DMA and TL predict that the variance of the population density is a power-law function of mean individual body mass. We call this relationship "variance-mass allometry" (VMA). We confirmed the theoretically predicted power-law form and the theoretically predicted parameters of VMA, using detailed data on individual oak trees (Quercus spp.) of Black Rock Forest, Cornwall, New York. These results connect the variability of population density to the mean body mass of individuals.

  11. Genomic regions and genes related to inter-population differences in body size in the ground beetle Carabus japonicus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurai, Ryohei; Fujisawa, Tomochika; Okuzaki, Yutaka; Sota, Teiji

    2017-08-10

    Body size is a key trait in diversification among animal species, and revealing the gene regions responsible for body size diversification among populations or related species is important in evolutionary biology. We explored the genomic regions associated with body size differences in Carabus japonicus ground beetle populations by quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping of F 2 hybrids from differently sized parents from two populations using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing and de novo assembly of the beetle whole genome. The assembled genome had a total length of 191 Mb with a scaffold N50 of 0.73 Mb; 14,929 protein-coding genes were predicted. Three QTLs on different linkage groups had major effects on the overall size, which is composed chiefly of elytral length. In addition, we found QTLs on autosomal and X chromosomal linkage groups that affected head length and width, thoracic width, and elytral width. We determined the gene loci potentially related to control of body size in scaffolds of the genome sequence, which contained the QTL regions. The genetic basis of body size variation based on a small number of major loci would promote differentiation in body size in response to selection pressures related to variations in environmental conditions and inter-specific interactions.

  12. Clinical features and glaucoma according to optic disc size in a South Korean population: the Namil study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Na Hee; Jun, Roo Min; Choi, Kyu-Ryong

    2014-03-01

    To assess the proportion of glaucomatous eyes based on the association between optic disc (OD) size and its clinical determinants in the resident population of Namil-myon, Central South Korea. Of the 1,532 participants in the Namil study, we included 1,410 Koreans (2,734 eyes) with legible fundus photographs in this study. Following the estimation of OD size on the photographs using Image J software, we corrected for image magnification. Associations between the clinical features, such as age, sex, axial length (AL), spherical equivalent (SE), and central corneal thickness, and the estimated OD size were assessed for individual eyes. After adjusting for the influencing factors, the proportion of glaucoma was compared among three categories of measured OD size (small, medium, and large OD groups). After adjusting for the potential confounders using a linear mixed model, age, sex, AL, and SE were correlated with the OD size estimates (P = 0.003, P = 0.029, P population.

  13. A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, George H; Bruce, Barry D; Cailliet, Gregor M; Goldman, Kenneth J; Grubbs, R Dean; Lowe, Christopher G; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mollet, Henry F; Weng, Kevin C; O'Sullivan, John B

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a

  14. A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias population off California, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George H Burgess

    Full Text Available White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP. This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases

  15. The effects of selection for size in cattle on horn fly population density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelman, C D; Brown, C J; McNew, R W; Gbur, E E; Brown, M A; Tolley, G

    1996-04-01

    Statistically significant differences were observed in the population density of the horn fly, Haematobia irritans irritans L., on Angus cows having significantly different frame sizes. Angus cows, averaging horn flies than Angus cows that measured 112.5-117.5 cm, 117.5-120 cm, 120-126 cm and > 126 cm in height at the hip. The Angus I cows ( 126 cm). The estimated heritability (h2) of horn fly resistance was 0.43 +/- 0.07 and 0.95 +/- 0.31 for 1989 and 1990, respectively. Horn fly counts on the Angus I herd ( horn flies per cow (PBV = 26.9 flies per cow in 1989) and from 75.9 (PBV = -29.1) to 134.5 (PBV = 29.5) flies per cow in 1990. Angus I bulls had PBV = -23.7 to 13.4 and from -26.5 to 14.75 in 1989 and 1990, respectively. The Angus II cows had horn fly counts that ranged from 159.6 (PBV of -23.5) to 208.1 (PBV of 25) per cow in 1989 and from 232.3 (PBV of -56.2) to 378.7 (PBV of 90) per cow in 1990. Angus II bulls had PBVs that ranged from -17.1 to 18.9 in 1989 and from -28.1 to 48.8 in 1990. The Angus I cows had significantly (P horn flies (mean of 63.8 horn flies per m2) than the small, medium or large Angus II cows (mean of 129.4, 149.6 and 145.5 horn flies per m2, respectively). The data indicated that some specific factor(s) associated with cow size contribute(s) to innate resistance of cattle to the horn fly.

  16. Study of the normal heart size in Northwest part of Iranian population: a cadaveric study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Shabnam; Hedjazi, Arya; Sajjadian, Maryam; Ghoroubi, Naser; Mohammadi, Maryam; Erfani, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The heart is in a muscular organ in the middle mediastinum. According to our knowledge, there is no standard data about the anthropologic parameters of normal Iranian hearts. Hence, the aim of the present study was to investigate the normal heart size in Iranian cadavers. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 550 cadavers (104 female/446 male) from June 2014 to July 2015 in the Razavi Khorasan province of Iran were included in the study. After approval of the Ethical Committee, cadavers were divided into 10 groups based on age groups. Length, width, weight, chordae tendineae, papillary muscles, and heart valves were measured using vernier caliper. Finally, data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The mean values of the demographic data were as follows: age= 42.12 ± 21.34 years; weight = 60.38 ± 15.32 kg; height = 158.14 ± 23.77 cm; and BMI = 24.66 ± 17.60 kg/m 2 . The mean values of the heart length, width, chordae tendineae, pupillary muscles, weight, and index of the heart were 11.41 ± 2.15 cm, 8.21 ± 4.38 cm, 19.41 ± 6.70, 5.74 ± 1.96, 247.78 ± 62.27 grams, and 5.74 ± 1.96, respectively. In addition, the circumference of the tricuspid valve, circumference of the mitral valves, and tricuspid and mitral areas were 8.80 ± 1.11 cm, 9.43 ± 1.44 cm, 4.11 ± 0.71 cm 2 , and 4.50 ± 0.90 cm 2 , respectively. Conclusion: Mean values of the heart's length and width was similar to previous reports from western population. The circumference of the tricuspid valve was less than the textbook's data, while circumference of the mitral valves was more than it. The study findings provide valuable information about standard data of the heart in the Iranian population, which is useful for surgeons as well as anthropologists. However, multi-center studies with a larger sample size are required to complete data about anatomical characteristics of normal hearts.

  17. Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

    2016-06-01

    Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic

  18. Population is the main driver of war group size and conflict casualties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oka, Rahul C; Kissel, Marc; Golitko, Mark; Sheridan, Susan Guise; Kim, Nam C; Fuentes, Agustín

    2017-12-26

    The proportions of individuals involved in intergroup coalitional conflict, measured by war group size (W), conflict casualties (C), and overall group conflict deaths (G), have declined with respect to growing populations, implying that states are less violent than small-scale societies. We argue that these trends are better explained by scaling laws shared by both past and contemporary societies regardless of social organization, where group population (P) directly determines W and indirectly determines C and G. W is shown to be a power law function of P with scaling exponent X [demographic conflict investment (DCI)]. C is shown to be a power law function of W with scaling exponent Y [conflict lethality (CL)]. G is shown to be a power law function of P with scaling exponent Z [group conflict mortality (GCM)]. Results show that, while W/P and G/P decrease as expected with increasing P, C/W increases with growing W. Small-scale societies show higher but more variance in DCI and CL than contemporary states. We find no significant differences in DCI or CL between small-scale societies and contemporary states undergoing drafts or conflict, after accounting for variance and scale. We calculate relative measures of DCI and CL applicable to all societies that can be tracked over time for one or multiple actors. In light of the recent global emergence of populist, nationalist, and sectarian violence, our comparison-focused approach to DCI and CL will enable better models and analysis of the landscapes of violence in the 21st century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  19. Landscape selection by piping plovers has implications for measuring habitat and population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Sherfy, Mark H.

    2014-01-01

    How breeding birds distribute in relation to landscape-scale habitat features has important implications for conservation because those features may constrain habitat suitability. Furthermore, knowledge of these associations can help build models to improve area-wide demographic estimates or to develop a sampling stratification for research and monitoring. This is particularly important for rare species that have uneven distributions across vast areas, such as the federally listed piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). We examined how remotely-sensed landscape features influenced the distribution of breeding plover pairs among 2-km shoreline segments during 2006–2009 at Lake Sakakawea in North Dakota, USA. We found strong associations between remotely-sensed landscape features and plover abundance and distribution (R2 = 0.65). Plovers were nearly absent from segments with bluffs (>25 m elevation increase within 250 m of shoreline). Relative plover density (pairs/ha) was markedly greater on islands (4.84 ± 1.22 SE) than on mainlands (0.85 ± 0.17 SE). Pair numbers increased with abundance of nesting habitat (unvegetated-flat areas β^=0.28±0.08SE ). On islands, pair numbers also increased with the relative proportion of the total area that was habitat ( β^=3.27±0.46SE ). Our model could be adapted to estimate the breeding population of plovers or to make predictions that provide a basis for stratification and design of future surveys. Knowledge of landscape features, such as bluffs, that exclude use by birds refines habitat suitability and facilitates more accurate estimates of habitat and population abundance, by decreasing the size of the sampling universe. Furthermore, techniques demonstrated here are applicable to other vast areas where birds breed in sparse or uneven densities.

  20. Population size drives industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae alcoholic fermentation and is under genetic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-04-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO(2) production rate (V(max)) was not related to the maximum CO(2) production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between V(max) and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement.

  1. Population Size Drives Industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae Alcoholic Fermentation and Is under Genetic Control▿†‡

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-01-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO2 production rate (Vmax) was not related to the maximum CO2 production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between Vmax and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement. PMID:21357433

  2. Large bottleneck size in Cauliflower Mosaic Virus populations during host plant colonization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baptiste Monsion

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The effective size of populations (Ne determines whether selection or genetic drift is the predominant force shaping their genetic structure and evolution. Despite their high mutation rate and rapid evolution, this parameter is poorly documented experimentally in viruses, particularly plant viruses. All available studies, however, have demonstrated the existence of huge within-host demographic fluctuations, drastically reducing Ne upon systemic invasion of different organs and tissues. Notably, extreme bottlenecks have been detected at the stage of systemic leaf colonization in all plant viral species investigated so far, sustaining the general idea that some unknown obstacle(s imposes a barrier on the development of all plant viruses. This idea has important implications, as it appoints genetic drift as a constant major force in plant virus evolution. By co-inoculating several genetic variants of Cauliflower mosaic virus into a large number of replicate host plants, and by monitoring their relative frequency within the viral population over the course of the host systemic infection, only minute stochastic variations were detected. This allowed the estimation of the CaMV Ne during colonization of successive leaves at several hundreds of viral genomes, a value about 100-fold higher than that reported for any other plant virus investigated so far, and indicated the very limited role played by genetic drift during plant systemic infection by this virus. These results suggest that the barriers that generate bottlenecks in some plant virus species might well not exist, or can be surmounted by other viruses, implying that severe bottlenecks during host colonization do not necessarily apply to all plant-infecting viruses.

  3. Large bottleneck size in Cauliflower Mosaic Virus populations during host plant colonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsion, Baptiste; Froissart, Rémy; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2008-10-01

    The effective size of populations (Ne) determines whether selection or genetic drift is the predominant force shaping their genetic structure and evolution. Despite their high mutation rate and rapid evolution, this parameter is poorly documented experimentally in viruses, particularly plant viruses. All available studies, however, have demonstrated the existence of huge within-host demographic fluctuations, drastically reducing Ne upon systemic invasion of different organs and tissues. Notably, extreme bottlenecks have been detected at the stage of systemic leaf colonization in all plant viral species investigated so far, sustaining the general idea that some unknown obstacle(s) imposes a barrier on the development of all plant viruses. This idea has important implications, as it appoints genetic drift as a constant major force in plant virus evolution. By co-inoculating several genetic variants of Cauliflower mosaic virus into a large number of replicate host plants, and by monitoring their relative frequency within the viral population over the course of the host systemic infection, only minute stochastic variations were detected. This allowed the estimation of the CaMV Ne during colonization of successive leaves at several hundreds of viral genomes, a value about 100-fold higher than that reported for any other plant virus investigated so far, and indicated the very limited role played by genetic drift during plant systemic infection by this virus. These results suggest that the barriers that generate bottlenecks in some plant virus species might well not exist, or can be surmounted by other viruses, implying that severe bottlenecks during host colonization do not necessarily apply to all plant-infecting viruses.

  4. Overjet, overbite and dental midline shift as predictors of tooth size discrepancy in a Bangladeshi population and a graphical overview of global tooth size ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Mohammad Khursheed; Iida, Junichiro

    2013-11-01

    This study aimed to measure and compare tooth size ratios in a Bangladeshi population across the following groups: those with normal occlusion, crowding or spacing; those with normal, increased or decreased overjet; those with normal, increased or decreased overbite; those with or without dental mid-line discrepancy; and those with or without lip competence. It also presents a graphical overview of the anterior and overall ratios from the study and using available global data. This study was performed on dental casts of 260 Bangladeshi individuals, comprising 114 males and 146 females (age range, 18-24 years, mean age = 20). The Bolton anterior ratio and overall ratio were determined for the following groups: those with normal occlusion, crowding or spacing; those with normal, increased or decreased overjet; those with normal, increased or decreased overbite; those with or without dental mid-line discrepancy; and those with or without lip competence. There were statistically significant differences in the anterior tooth size ratios between those with or without dental mid-line discrepancy, with a mean value of 78.83% and 80.05%, respectively. Statistically significant differences were also found in overall tooth size ratios between those with normal, increased or decreased overjet and also between those with normal, increased or decreased overbite. Graphical presentations of anterior and overall ratios from the present study and using global data showed variations between populations. In the Bangladeshi population, increased tooth size ratios in subjects with dental mid-line discrepancy (anterior ratio) and also in those with decreased overjet or decreased overbite (overall ratio) may be predictors of tooth size discrepancies. The graphical overview also suggests that different international ethnic groups display unique Bolton ratios.

  5. Community- and population-level changes in diatom size structure in a subarctic lake over the last two centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Kerrigan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change over the last two centuries has been associated with significant shifts in diatom community structure in lakes from the high arctic to temperate latitudes. To test the hypotheses that recent climate warming selects for species of smaller size within communities and a decrease in the average size of species within populations, we quantified the size of individual diatom valves from 10 depths in a sediment core covering the last ∼200 years from a pristine subarctic lake. Over the last ∼200 years, changes in the relative abundance of species of different average size and changes in the average valve size of populations of species contribute equally to the changes in community size structure, but are often opposite in sign, compensating for one another and moderating temporal changes in community size structure. In the surface sediments that correspond to the recent decades when air temperatures have warmed, the mean size of valves in the diatom community has significantly decreased due to an increase in the proportion of smaller-sized planktonic diatom species.

  6. Longevity and body size in three populations of Dyscophus antongilii (Microhylidae, Dyscophinae, the tomato frog from north-eastern Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Tessa

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Age profile and body size were studied in three populations of the rare and understudied tomato frog, Dyscophus antongilii, from NE Madagascar. For each individual, a phalanx was clipped and the bone used for skeletochronology. Sexual dimorphism is significantly different between all three populations: females are larger and heavier than males, with males also being distinguishable by a more yellowish throat. Age structure analysis was possible on two populations (Antara, Lampirano. The age within the two populations ranged between 3 and 7 years (mean ± SD = 5.0 ± 0.2 for males, and 3 to 11 years (mean ± SD = 5.8 ± 0.3 for females. Longevity was positively correlated to body size and weight within both sexes and populations. Sexual maturity was reached between 2 and 3 years, with sexual maturity recorded for males signifi- cantly lower than for females.

  7. Impact of population size on incidence of rubella and measles in comparison with that of other infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikura, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    A strong dependency of rubella and measles epidemics on population size was confirmed by 2 types of plots: the cumulative frequency distribution of number of cases per prefecture and the slope of the log-log plots of number of cases per prefecture on the y-axis vs. prefecture population size on the x-axis. These parameters were found to be constant and unique to each infectious agent. The broader cumulative frequency distribution and steeper slope of the log-log plots were characteristic to measles and rubella, i.e., a higher population size was correlated with a disproportionate high incidence of measles and rubella. No such tendency was found in other infections with possible exceptions of pertussis and keratoconjunctivitis. The dependency of rubella and measles on population density was examined by log-log plots of patient number/population vs. population density, which revealed strong population density dependency of rubella; the dependency of measles on population density was equivocal.

  8. Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

    2015-09-07

    We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Efficacy of a 2% climbazole shampoo for reducing Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavana, P; Petit, J-Y; Perrot, S; Guechi, R; Marignac, G; Reynaud, K; Guillot, J

    2015-12-01

    Shampoo therapy is often recommended for the control of Malassezia overgrowth in dogs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vivo activity of a 2% climbazole shampoo against Malassezia pachydermatis yeasts in naturally infected dogs. Eleven research colony Beagles were used. The dogs were distributed randomly into two groups: group A (n=6) and group B (n=5). Group A dogs were washed with a 2% climbazole shampoo, while group B dogs were treated with a physiological shampoo base. The shampoos were applied once weekly for two weeks. The population size of Malassezia yeasts on skin was determined by fungal culture through modified Dixon's medium contact plates pressed on left concave pinna, axillae, groins, perianal area before and after shampoo application. Samples collected were compared by Wilcoxon rank sum test. Samples collected after 2% climbazole shampoo application showed a significant and rapid reduction of Malassezia population sizes. One hour after the first climbazole shampoo application, Malassezia reduction was already statistically significant and 15 days after the second climbazole shampoo, Malassezia population sizes were still significantly decreased. No significant reduction of Malassezia population sizes was observed in group B dogs. The application of a 2% climbazole shampoo significantly reduced Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs. Application of 2% climbazole shampoo may be useful for the control of Malassezia overgrowth and it may be also proposed as prevention when recurrences are frequent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Facing the estimation of effective population size based on molecular markers: comparison of estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen; Verrier, Etienne; Hospital, Frederic

    We performed a simulation study of several estimators of the effective population size (Ne): NeH = estimator based on the rate of decrease in heterozygosity; NeT = estimator based on the temporal method; NeLD = linkage disequilibrium-based method. We first focused on NeH, which presented...... under scenarios of 3 and 20 bi-allelic loci. Increasing the number of loci largely improved the performance of NeT and NeLD. We highlight the value of NeT and NeLD when large numbers of bi-allelic loci are available, which is nowadays the case for SNPs markers....... an increase in the variability of values over time. The distance from the mean and the median to the true Ne increased over time too. This was caused by the fixation of alleles through time due to genetic drift and the changes in the distribution of allele frequencies. We compared the three estimators of Ne...

  11. Preferential enrichment of large-sized very low density lipoprotein populations with transferred cholesteryl esters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, S.

    1985-01-01

    The effect of lipid transfer proteins on the exchange and transfer of cholesteryl esters from rat plasma HDL2 to human very low (VLDL) and low density (LDL) lipoprotein populations was studied. The use of a combination of radiochemical and chemical methods allowed separate assessment of [ 3 H]cholesteryl ester exchange and of cholesteryl ester transfer. VLDL-I was the preferred acceptor for transferred cholesteryl esters, followed by VLDL-II and VLDL-III. LDL did not acquire cholesteryl esters. The contribution of exchange of [ 3 H]cholesteryl esters to total transfer was highest for LDL and decreased in reverse order along the VLDL density range. Inactivation of lecithin: cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT) and heating the HDL2 for 60 min at 56 degrees C accelerated transfer and exchange of [ 3 H]cholesteryl esters. Addition of lipid transfer proteins increased cholesterol esterification in all systems. The data demonstrate that large-sized, triglyceride-rich VLDL particles are preferred acceptors for transferred cholesteryl esters. It is suggested that enrichment of very low density lipoproteins with cholesteryl esters reflects the triglyceride content of the particles

  12. The size of the irregular migrant population in the European Union – counting the uncountable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Dita; Kovacheva, Vesela; Prescott, Hannah

    2011-01-01

    It is difficult to estimate the size of the irregular migrant population in a specific city or country, and even more difficult to arrive at estimates at the European level. A review of past attempts at European-level estimates reveals that they rely on rough and outdated rules-of-thumb. In this paper, we present our own European level estimates for 2002, 2005, and 2008. We aggregate country-specific information, aiming at approximate comparability by consistent use of minimum and maximum estimates and by adjusting for obvious differences in definition and timescale. While the aggregated estimates are not considered highly reliable, they do -- for the first time -- provide transparency. The provision of more systematic medium quality estimates is shown to be the most promising way for improvement. The presented estimate indicates a minimum of 1.9 million and a maximum of 3.8 million irregular foreign residents in the 27 member states of the European Union (2008). Unlike rules-of-thumb, the aggregated EU estimates indicate a decline in the number of irregular foreign residents between 2002 and 2008. This decline has been influenced by the EU enlargement and legalisation programmes.

  13. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Boitard

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey, PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles.

  14. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urtzi Laconcha

    Full Text Available In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788 and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing.

  15. Genetic introgression of farmed salmon in native populations: quantifying the relative influence of population size and frequency of escapees

    OpenAIRE

    Heino, Mikko Petteri; Svåsand, Terje; Wennevik, Vidar; Glover, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    - Farmed escapees may threaten the genetic integrity of native salmon populations through interbreeding. However, introgression requires survival until maturation, successful reproduction and successful early development. These traits are often compromised in domesticated animals selected for high performance in captivity. This makes it difficult to predict introgression levels in native populations. A recent study estimated genetic introgression of farmed escaped Atlantic salmon Salmo sal...

  16. Evolutionary Stable Strategy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    After Maynard-Smith and Price [1] mathematically derived why a given behaviour or strategy was adopted by a certain proportion of the population at a given time, it was shown that a strategy which is currently stable in a population need not be stable in evolutionary time (across generations). Additionally it was sug-.

  17. High individual repeatability and population differentiation in stable isotope ratios in winter-grown collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis feathers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hjernquist, M.B.; Veen, T.; Font, L.; Klaassen, M.R.J.

    2009-01-01

    For migrants, we often lack complete information of their spatial distribution year round. Here, we used stable carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen isotope ratios extracted from feathers grown at the wintering sites of the long-distance migratory collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis, to study how

  18. Relationships between adult population size, recruitment, and year-class strength in a labrid fish in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raventos, Nuria

    2009-11-01

    The influence of distinct demographic factors on determining population size in a littoral nesting fish ( Symphodus roissali) was studied. Differences in the overall abundances were studied at three sites in the NW Mediterranean Sea for three years, to examine whether: 1) the adult population determined the number of successful nests; 2) the number of successful nests determined recruitment levels; 3) recruitment levels were subsequently related to the number of young of the year (YOY) joining the population after the recruitment period; and 4) the YOY value determined the size of the year class 1 cohort in the following year's adult reproductive population. The results show that there was a significant relationship between the number of spawners and the number of successful nests. However, the number of successful nests does not always correlate well with recruitment level. Furthermore, recruitment levels are not good indicators of the Young of the Year (measured three months after settlement) in number joining the populations, though YOY in number was related to the strength of the year class joining the adult reproductive population the following year. Therefore, the magnitude of the recruitment and probably the size of the adult population did not determine the year-class strength in S. roissali.

  19. Applying Effective Population Size Estimates of Kandelia obovata Sheue, Liu and Yong to Conservation and Restoration Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing-Hong Huang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Effective population size (Ne is a crucial metric for evaluating the current status of genetic diversity and conservation management. Population of Kandelia obovata, a mangrove species that is patchily distributed along the estuaries off Southeastern China, is genetically structured. Here, we applied skyline analyses to infer the demographic history of K. obovata based on Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms (AFLP data. Congruent trends of population growth rate among populations, but concurrent change in Ne estimates, were inferred in all populations. The recent rapid habitat expansion explains the high census population size but small Ne of populations in Northern Taiwan. Our study also revealed lower Ne of reforested populations than their sources. In silico demographic analyses simulate the small or biased sampling of seedlings for reforestation and revealed over 90% and 99% Ne reduction when only 1/2 and 1/10 samples were collected, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of a comprehensive sampling of seeds for restoration. Overall, this study rendered, not only the current Ne of K. obovata populations, but also indicates the importance of Ne estimation on restoration.

  20. Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Dongbao; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners.

  1. Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

    2018-01-30

    Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

  2. A formal proof of the optimal frame setting for Dynamic-Frame Aloha with known population size

    OpenAIRE

    Barletta, Luca; Borgonovo, Flaminio; Cesana, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    In Dynamic-Frame Aloha subsequent frame lengths must be optimally chosen to maximize throughput. When the initial population size ${\\cal N}$ is known, numerical evaluations show that the maximum efficiency is achieved by setting the frame length equal to the backlog size at each subsequent frame; however, at best of our knowledge, a formal proof of this result is still missing, and is provided here. As byproduct, we also prove that the asymptotical efficiency in the optimal case is $e^{-1}$, ...

  3. The effective size of the Icelandic population and the prospects for LD mapping: inference from unphased microsatellite markers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Mailund, Thomas; Thorlacius, Steinunn

    2006-01-01

    Characterizing the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the genome is a pre-requisite for association mapping studies. Patterns of LD also contain information about the past demography of populations. On this study we focus on the Icelandic population where LD was investigated in 12 regions...... size. Differences in the patterns of decrease of LD with distance among genomic regions were mostly due to two regions exhibiting respectively higher and lower proportions of pairs in LD than average within the first 4 cM. We pooled data from all regions except these two and summarized patterns of LD...... on scaled recombination rates from patterns of LD. Patterns of LD in Iceland suggest a genome-wide scaled recombination rate of ρ* = 200 [130–330] per cM which is equivalent to a long term effective population size of ~5000 in the range of estimates recently reported in three populations using extensive...

  4. Sociocultural behavior, sex-biased admixture, and effective population sizes in Central African Pygmies and non-Pygmies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S A; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2013-04-01

    Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter-gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history.

  5. Long-term stability and effective population size in North Sea and Baltic Sea cod ( Gadus morhua )

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Nina Aagaard; Eg Nielsen, Einar; Schierup, M.H.

    2006-01-01

    for the Moray Firth population, while subtle but significant genetic changes over time were detected for the Bornholm Basin population. Estimates of the effective population size (N-e) generally exceeded 500 for both populations when employing a number of varieties of the temporal genetic method. However......DNA from archived otoliths was used to explore the temporal stability of the genetic composition of two cod populations, the Moray Firth (North Sea) sampled in 1965 and 2002, and the Bornholm Basin (Baltic Sea) sampled in 1928 and 1997. We found no significant changes in the allele frequencies......, confidence intervals were very wide and N-e's most likely range in the thousands. There was no apparent loss of genetic variability and no evidence of a genetic bottleneck for either of the populations. Calculations of the expected levels of genetic variability under different scenarios of N-e showed...

  6. Genetic variation in Danish populations of Erysiphe graminis f.sp. hordei: estimation of gene diversity and effective population size using RFLP data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, C.; Giese, Nanna Henriette

    1996-01-01

    . The average gene diversity, (H) over cap was estimated as 0.84. The effective population size was estimated as: log(10) ((N) over cap(e)) = 0.64 - log(10)(mu), or 4.4 x 10(9), assuming a nucleotide mutation rate (mu) of 10(-9) per base per generation. There was no significant genetic differentiation between......Genetic variation of the barley powdery mildew fungus (Erysiphe graminis f.sp. hordei) was estimated in three Danish local populations. Genetic variation was estimated from the variation amongst clones of Egh, and was therefore an estimate of the maximum genetic variation in the local populations...

  7. Need for a nomogram of renal sizes in the Indian population- findings from a single centre sonographic study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prakash Muthusami

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Renal size is an important parameter used in the diagnosis and follow up of renal diseases. However, while making decisions, clinicians must be aware of the dependence of these dimensions on the ethnicity of the individual, independent of anthropometric indices. There is no established nomogram for renal sizes in the Indian population. The aim of this study was to assess the applicability of oft-quoted ranges of normal renal sizes in our population. Methods: Renal dimensions including length, width and parenchymal thickness were sonographically measured in 140 individuals with no renal disease. Analysis was done for differences due to age, gender and laterality. The correlation of renal dimensions with anthropometric parameters like weight, height, body mass index (BMI and body surface area (BSA was analyzed. Results: The means of length, width and parenchymal thickness of all 280 kidneys of 140 patients were 9.65 ± 0.63, 4.5 ± 0.42 and 2.04 ± 0.2 cm, respectively. There was a significant difference in parenchymal thickness between the right and left kidneys, while there was no significant right-left difference in length or width. Gender-wise analysis showed significant differences between male and female renal breadths but not length and parenchymal thickness. Age group-wise analysis showed significant decrease in renal length and parenchymal thickness beyond the seventh decade. There was a moderate positive correlation of bilateral renal length with body weight and BSA, and a weak positive correlation with body height and BMI. Interpretation & conclusions: Renal sizes in our population are in contrast to commonly quoted normal values in literature. Conclusions about renal sizes need to be made with reference to nomograms and should not be based upon data from other populations. We also present formulae whereby to derive renal sizes from anthropometric indices in our population.

  8. High variability in spatial and temporal size-based trophodynamics of deep-sea fishes from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge elucidated by stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, William D. K.; Sweeting, Christopher J.; Wigham, Ben D.; McGill, Rona A. R.; Polunin, Nicholas V. C.

    2013-12-01

    Demersal fish play an important role in the deep-sea ecosystem by acting as a link to mobile food in the water column, consuming benthic fauna, breaking down large food parcels and dispersing organic matter over large areas. Poor diet resolution from stomach content analysis often impairs the ability to assess differences in inter- and intra-population trophodynamics and therefore understand resource partitioning among deep-sea fishes. Antimora rostrata (predator-scavenger), Coryphaenoides armatus (predator-scavenger), Coryphaenoides brevibarbis (predator) and Halosauropsis macrochir (predator) were collected from 3 stations on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) in 2007 and 2009 to investigate trophic ecology using δ13C and δ15N. Variability in lipid-normalised δ13C (δ13Cn) and δ15N was explained by body length in all species but slope and significance of the isotope-length relationships varied both temporally and spatially. δ15N increases with length were observed in A. rostrata at all stations, C. brevibarbis and H. macrochir at one or more stations but were absent in C. armatus. δ13Cn increased with length in A. rostrata but the slope of δ13Cn-length relationships varied spatially and temporally in C. armatus and C. brevibarbis. The co-occurring δ13Cn and δ15N size-based trends in A. rostrata and H. macrochir suggested that size-based trends were a result of increasing trophic position. In C. armatus and C. brevibarbis the isotope-length trends were difficult to distinguish among trophic position increases, shifts in resource use i.e. benthic to pelagic or internal physiology. However, the overall strength, direction and significance of isotope-length trends varied temporally and spatially which suggested varying degrees of overlap in trophic ecology and feeding plasticity among these species.

  9. Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

    2014-01-01

    Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

  10. Size and demography pattern of the domestic dog population in Bhutan: Implications for dog population management and disease control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinzin, Karma; Tenzin, Tenzin; Robertson, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the demography of domestic dogs is essential to plan the dog population management and rabies control program. In this study, we estimated the owned and stray dog population and the proportion of owned dogs that are free-roaming in Bhutan. For this, a cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in six districts (both urban and rural areas) and two border towns in southern Bhutan. The population estimation was done by extrapolation of the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person, whilst mark-resight survey was conducted to estimate the proportion of owned dogs that were free-roaming. A total of 1,301 (rural:585; urban:716) respondents (one per household) were interviewed of which 173 households (24.4%) in urban areas owned 237 dogs whilst 238 households (40.8%) in rural areas owned 353 dogs. The mean number of dogs per dog owning household was estimated to be 1.44 (urban:1.37 dogs; rural:1.48 dogs) and dogs per household was estimated to be 0.45 (urban:0.33; rural:0.60). The dog: human ratio was 1:16.30 (0.06 dogs per person) in urban areas and 1:8.43 (0.12 dogs per person) in rural areas. The total owned dog population based on the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person were estimated to be 65,312 and 71,245 in the country, respectively. The male: female ratio of the owned dog was 1.31:1 in urban areas and 2.05:1 in rural areas. Majority of the dogs were local non-descript breeds in both urban (60.8%) and rural (78%) areas, and the most common source was acquisition from friends or family (44.7%). The stray dog population in Bhutan was estimated to be 48,379 (urban:22,772; rural:25,607). Of the total estimated owned dog population in the two border towns, the proportion that were found free-roaming was estimated to be 31%. The different dog population estimation methods were compared and discussed in this paper. This study generated baseline data on the demographic patterns of the owned and stray dogs in Bhutan which

  11. Modulation of population density and size of silver nanoparticles embedded in bacterial cellulose via ammonia exposure: visual detection of volatile compounds in a piece of plasmonic nanopaper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heli, B.; Morales-Narváez, E.; Golmohammadi, H.; Ajji, A.; Merkoçi, A.

    2016-04-01

    The localized surface plasmon resonance exhibited by noble metal nanoparticles can be sensitively tuned by varying their size and interparticle distances. We report that corrosive vapour (ammonia) exposure dramatically reduces the population density of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) embedded within bacterial cellulose, leading to a larger distance between the remaining nanoparticles and a decrease in the UV-Vis absorbance associated with the AgNP plasmonic properties. We also found that the size distribution of AgNPs embedded in bacterial cellulose undergoes a reduction in the presence of volatile compounds released during food spoilage, modulating the studied nanoplasmonic properties. In fact, such a plasmonic nanopaper exhibits a change in colour from amber to light amber upon the explored corrosive vapour exposure and from amber to a grey or taupe colour upon fish or meat spoilage exposure. These phenomena are proposed as a simple visual detection of volatile compounds in a flexible, transparent, permeable and stable single-use nanoplasmonic membrane, which opens the way to innovative approaches and capabilities in gas sensing and smart packaging.The localized surface plasmon resonance exhibited by noble metal nanoparticles can be sensitively tuned by varying their size and interparticle distances. We report that corrosive vapour (ammonia) exposure dramatically reduces the population density of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) embedded within bacterial cellulose, leading to a larger distance between the remaining nanoparticles and a decrease in the UV-Vis absorbance associated with the AgNP plasmonic properties. We also found that the size distribution of AgNPs embedded in bacterial cellulose undergoes a reduction in the presence of volatile compounds released during food spoilage, modulating the studied nanoplasmonic properties. In fact, such a plasmonic nanopaper exhibits a change in colour from amber to light amber upon the explored corrosive vapour exposure and

  12. Changes in home range sizes and population densities of carnivore species along the natural to urban habitat gradient

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šálek, Martin; Drahníková, L.; Tkadlec, Emil

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2015), s. 1-14 ISSN 0305-1838 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Carnivores * home range size * natural–urban gradient * population density * review Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 4.116, year: 2015

  13. Intercalibration of hydroacoustic and mark-recapture methods for assessing the spawning population size of a threatened fish species

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rakowitz, G.; Kubečka, Jan; Fesl, C.; Keckeis, H.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 75, č. 6 (2009), s. 1356-1370 ISSN 0022-1112 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60170517 Keywords : hydroacoustics * mark-recapture * population size * spawning migration * cyprinid freshwater fish * homing Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.226, year: 2009

  14. A Classroom Investigation of the Effect of Population Size and Income on Success in the London 2012 Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Nancy; Felton, Nathan; Schwertman, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Engaging students in active learning can enhance their understanding and appreciation of a subject such as statistics. Classroom activities and projects help to engage students and further promote the learning process. In this paper, an activity investigating the influence of population size and wealth on the medal counts from the 2012 London…

  15. Isolation Distance, Inflorescence Sampling, and Population Size: Maintaining Genetic Diversity in the U.S. Temperate Grass Germplasm Collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    During the regeneration of cross-pollinating accessions, genetic contamination from foreign pollen and reduction of the effective population size can be a hindrance to maintaining the genetic diversity in the temperate grass collection at the Western Regional Plant Introduction Station (WRPIS). The...

  16. An optimum city size? The scaling relationship for urban population and fine particulate (PM2.5) concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Lijian; Zhou, Weiqi; Pickett, Steward T.A.; Li, Weifeng; Li, Li

    2016-01-01

    We utilize the distribution of PM 2.5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality. We found: 1) The relationship varies greatly among continents and countries. Large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America have better air quality than those in other continents, while those in China and India have the worst air quality. 2) The relationships between urban population size and PM 2.5 concentration in large cities of different continents or countries were different. PM 2.5 concentration in large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America showed little fluctuation or a small increasing trend, but those in Africa and India represent a “U” type relationship and in China represent an inverse “U” type relationship. 3) The potential contribution of population to PM 2.5 concentration was higher in the large cities in China and India, but lower in other large cities. - Highlights: • Urban population and PM 2.5 concentration varies greatly among regions. • Urban population size increase does not always enhances PM 2.5 concentration. • Population's potential contribution to PM 2.5 concentration higher in China. - We utilize the distribution of PM 2.5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality.

  17. Temporally stable population-specific differences in run timing of one-sea-winter Atlantic salmon returning to a large river system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vähä, Juha-Pekka; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Niemelä, Eero; Primmer, Craig R; Saloniemi, Irma; Johansen, Morten; Svenning, Martin; Brørs, Sturla

    2011-01-01

    The understanding of migration patterns can significantly contribute to conservation and management. The spawning migrations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) cover thousands of kilometers from the feeding areas at sea to their natal rivers to reproduce. Migrating salmon are exposed to intensive harvest, but little is known of the population-specific differences in migration behavior. In this study, timing of return migration was investigated among one-sea-winter Atlantic salmon within a river system. By utilizing knowledge of the genetic population structure, population of origin was reliably identified for c. 1500 fish caught in mixed stock fisheries after adopting an approach to minimize the complications arising from potential nonsampled populations. Results demonstrated significant and temporally stable differences among populations as well as between sexes. Generally, female salmon from tributary populations entered fresh water first. Run timing was not however related to in-river migration distance. Rather, one-sea-winter salmon from larger populations and with a higher proportion of multi-sea-winter females arrived later in the season. These findings are a significant step toward a more thorough understanding of the salmon migration behavior and behavioral ecology, providing concrete tools for the management and conservation of the remaining indigenous Atlantic salmon stocks.

  18. Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken Haste; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2015-01-01

    We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference...... interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size......-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze...

  19. Thymoma size significantly affects the survival, metastasis and effectiveness of adjuvant therapies: a population based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Dongliang; Zhou, Feng; Yang, Weiguang; Zhang, Kaixuan; Chen, Linsong; Jiang, Gening; Zhang, Peng; Wu, Chunyan; Fei, Ke; Zhang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    Background Thymoma, though a rare tumor disease, is the most common tumor of the anterior mediastinum. However, tumor size, as a critical factor, has been underestimated. Results Age, advanced tumor stage, and preoperative radiotherapy were poor prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and disease specific survival (DSS) (P thymoma patients were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Survival based on thymoma size and other characteristics of tumors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis. Correlation between thymoma size and thymoma metastatic status was contributed by logistic regression analysis. The efficiency of adjuvant therapy was analysis by stratification analysis. Conclusions Thymoma size could predict postoperative survival and guide chemotherapeutic regimens of patients. Larger tumor size indicated worse survival and higher metastatic rate. If thymoma is smaller than 90mm, traditional chemotherapy should be prohibited. While chemotherapy could be performed moderately when thymoma larger than 90 mm. PMID:29552309

  20. Heterozygosity predicts clutch and egg size but not plasticity in a house sparrow population with no evidence of inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetzel, Daniel P; Stewart, Ian R K; Westneat, David F

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the link between heterozygosity and the reaction norm attributes of reproductive performance in female house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We collected data on clutch size, egg size, hatching success and nestling survival in 2816 nesting attempts made by 791 marked individuals over a 16-year period. Pedigree analysis revealed no evidence of inbreeding. Neither parent-offspring regression nor an animal model revealed significant heritability in clutch or egg size. We selected 42 females that laid at least seven clutches at our study site and used a survey of 21 autosomal microsatellite loci to estimate heterozygosity for each female. We controlled for phenotypic plasticity and found that both clutch and egg size showed significant positive correlations with heterozygosity. We found no evidence that heterozygosity influenced the slope of individual reaction norms. Further analysis suggested that clutch size was affected by heterozygosity across the genome, but egg size had more complex relationships, with evidence favouring the influence of multiple loci. Given the apparent lack of inbreeding and large population size, our results suggest associative overdominance as the likely mechanism for the impact of heterozygosity, but also created a puzzle about the process producing associations between neutral markers and the genes affecting clutch size or egg size. One possible explanation is a long-term residual effect of the historical bottleneck that occurred when house sparrows were introduced into North America. The existence of heterozygosity-fitness correlations in a population with considerable phenotypic plasticity and little inbreeding implies that the effects of heterozygosity may be more significant than previously thought. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Stabilizing selection on genome size in a population of Festuca pallens under conditions of intensive intraspecific competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smarda, Petr; Horová, Lucie; Bures, Petr; Hralová, Ivana; Marková, Michaela

    2010-09-01

    *Stabilizing selection is a key evolutionary mechanism for which there is relatively little experimental evidence. To date, stabilizing selection has never been observed at the whole-genome level. *We tested the effect of selection on genome size in a field experiment using seeds collected in a population of Festuca pallens with a highly variable genome size. Using flow cytometry, we measured the genome size in germinating seedlings and juvenile plants grown with or without high intraspecific competition (908 individuals). Above-ground biomass and leaf number were used as measurements of individual vegetative performance. The possible confounding effect of seed weight was controlled for in a separate experiment. *Growth under high competition had a significant stabilizing effect on genome size. Because no relationship was observed between genome size and vegetative performance, we assume that the elimination of plants with extreme genome sizes was the result of decreased survival as a consequence of some unrecognized stress. *Our results indicate that genome size may be under direct selection. The equal disadvantaging of either large or small genomes indicates that the selection for optimum genome size in species may be fully context dependent. This study demonstrates the power of competition experiments for the detection of weak selection processes.

  2. Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

    2015-12-01

    Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

  3. Psychiatric Hospital Bed Numbers and Prison Population Sizes in 26 European Countries: A Critical Reconsideration of the Penrose Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blüml, Victor; Waldhör, Thomas; Kapusta, Nestor D; Vyssoki, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Recently, there has been a revived interest in the validity of the Penrose hypothesis, which was originally postulated over 75 years ago. It suggests an inverse relationship between the numbers of psychiatric hospital beds and the sizes of prison population. This study aims to investigate the association between psychiatric hospital beds and prison populations in a large sample of 26 European countries between 1993 and 2011. The association between prison population sizes and numbers of psychiatric hospital beds was assessed by means of Spearman correlations and modeled by a mixed random coefficient regression model. Socioeconomic variables were considered as covariates. Data were retrieved from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Mean Spearman correlation coefficients between psychiatric beds and prison population showed a significant negative association (-0.35; p = prison population sizes between countries. In this sense, our results challenge the prevalent opinion that a reduction of psychiatric beds subsequently leads to increasing incarcerations. These findings also work against the potential stigmatization of individuals suffering from mental disorders as criminals, which could be an unintentional byproduct of the Penrose hypothesis.

  4. POPULATION SIZE OF AUTOCHTHONOUS AND LOCALLY ADAPTED HEN’S BREEDS ON AREA OF THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. WEIS

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available On basic certificates about acceptation of Oravka Plymouth Rock, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, White Leghorn, Brown Leghorn and Sussex, controlled flocks of Slovak Union of Breeders, we analyzed total number of birds, number of breeding males, number of breeding females and effective population size by Simon and Buchenauer (1993 and we evaluated the populations of observed hen’s breeds to categorisations by Scherf (2000. The highest number of birds we recorded at breed New Hampshire from observed hen’s breeds. Average total number of animals in period of year 2003 - 2008 was 1373 birds with average effective population size 445.103. However, the population of New Hampshire poultry in Slovakia was evaluating by massive decrease in last years as a endangered - maintained breed for which an active conservation programme is in place. By contrast, the smallest number of animals was detected at breed White Leghorn with average total number 18.83 birds in period of year 2003 - 2008 and average effective population size 6.605. The breed White Leghorn in Slovakia we categorized to critical breed. National legislation on Slovakia has been created, the fist experience is being gathered and the European legislation is coming in practice. The conditions for the development and preservation of endangered breeds of poultry in Slovak Republic in the long term are being put in place by means of creative and well aimed utilisation of European and national legislation.

  5. The impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on divergence times and historical population sizes in Thylamys opossums from the Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarla, Thomas C; Jansa, Sharon A

    2015-05-01

    Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north-south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of 'montane-like' habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. POPULATION SIZE OF CHAMOIS – Rupicapra rupicapra (Linnaé IN THE HOUNTING GROUNDS ORUFA, BARE AND TRESKAVAC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enad Korjenić

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Field research of population size of chamois in the investigated haunting grounds Orufa, Bare and Treskavac have been carried out in the period from January to October 2009. Two methods have been used for assessment of the population size of chamois: relative count method and method of biological activity of game. In the investigated area, about 92 individuals (Orufa cca. 28, Bare cca. 33, and Treskavac cca 31. Real reproductive increment in the investigated haunting grounds was from 28 to 30% of the total number of females from the reproductive category of heard. Population density of chamois in investigated hunting grounds was one individual per hundred hectare. Key words: chamois, male, female, juvenile, heard, reproductive increment.

  7. Red blood cell size is inversely associated with leukocyte telomere length in a large multi-ethnic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlitina, Julia; Garcia, Christine Kim

    2012-01-01

    Although mutations in the genes encoding either the protein or RNA component of telomerase have been found in patients with various blood disorders, the impact of telomere length on hematopoiesis is less well understood for subjects from the general population. Here we have measured telomere lengths of genomic DNA isolated from circulating leukocytes of 3157 subjects, ranging from 18 to 85 years of age, enrolled in a large multiethnic population based study, the Dallas Heart Study 2. Shorter telomere lengths are marginally associated with lower red blood cell counts in this cohort, but are significantly associated with larger mean red blood cell size (as measured by the MCV), increased red blood cell distribution width (RDW), higher hemoglobin levels and lower platelet counts, even after correction for age, gender and ethnicity (p-values of 50 years vs. p = 0.0006 for size in a large urban US population and suggests a biologic mechanism for macrocytosis of aging.

  8. RNA–Stable-Isotope Probing Shows Utilization of Carbon from Inulin by Specific Bacterial Populations in the Rat Large Bowel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawley, Blair; Munro, Karen; Sims, Ian M.; Lee, Julian; Butts, Christine A.; Roy, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the trophisms that underpin bowel microbiota composition is required in order to understand its complex phylogeny and function. Stable-isotope (13C)-labeled inulin was added to the diet of rats on a single occasion in order to detect utilization of inulin-derived substrates by particular members of the cecal microbiota. Cecal digesta from Fibruline-inulin-fed rats was collected prior to (0 h) and at 6, 12, 18 and 24 h following provision of the [13C]inulin diet. RNA was extracted from these cecal specimens and fractionated in isopycnic buoyant density gradients in order to detect 13C-labeled nucleic acid originating in bacterial cells that had metabolized the labeled dietary constituent. RNA extracted from specimens collected after provision of the labeled diet was more dense than 0-h RNA. Sequencing of 16S rRNA genes amplified from cDNA obtained from these fractions showed that Bacteroides uniformis, Blautia glucerasea, Clostridium indolis, and Bifidobacterium animalis were the main users of the 13C-labeled substrate. Culture-based studies of strains of these bacterial species enabled trophisms associated with inulin and its hydrolysis products to be identified. B. uniformis utilized Fibruline-inulin for growth, whereas the other species used fructo-oligosaccharide and monosaccharides. Thus, RNA–stable-isotope probing (RNA-SIP) provided new information about the use of carbon from inulin in microbiota metabolism. PMID:24487527

  9. Mitochondrial Mutation Rate, Spectrum and Heteroplasmy in Caenorhabditis elegans Spontaneous Mutation Accumulation Lines of Differing Population Size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Anke; Thompson, Owen; Waterston, Robert H; Moerman, Donald G; Keightley, Peter D; Bergthorsson, Ulfar; Katju, Vaishali

    2017-06-01

    Mitochondrial genomes of metazoans, given their elevated rates of evolution, have served as pivotal markers for phylogeographic studies and recent phylogenetic events. In order to determine the dynamics of spontaneous mitochondrial mutations in small populations in the absence and presence of selection, we evolved mutation accumulation (MA) lines of Caenorhabditis elegans in parallel over 409 consecutive generations at three varying population sizes of N = 1, 10, and 100 hermaphrodites. The N =1 populations should have a minimal influence of natural selection to provide the spontaneous mutation rate and the expected rate of neutral evolution, whereas larger population sizes should experience increasing intensity of selection. New mutations were identified by Illumina paired-end sequencing of 86 mtDNA genomes across 35 experimental lines and compared with published genomes of natural isolates. The spontaneous mitochondrial mutation rate was estimated at 1.05 × 10-7/site/generation. A strong G/C→A/T mutational bias was observed in both the MA lines and the natural isolates. This suggests that the low G + C content at synonymous sites is the product of mutation bias rather than selection as previously proposed. The mitochondrial effective population size per worm generation was estimated to be 62. Although it was previously concluded that heteroplasmy was rare in C. elegans, the vast majority of mutations in this study were heteroplasmic despite an experimental regime exceeding 400 generations. The frequencies of frameshift and nonsynonymous mutations were negatively correlated with population size, which suggests their deleterious effects on fitness and a potent role for selection in their eradication. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Temporal changes in allele frequencies but stable genetic diversity over the past 40 years in the Irish Sea population of thornback ray, Raja clavata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevolot, M.; Ellis, J.R.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.; Stam, W.T.; Olsen, J.L.

    2008-01-01

    Rays and skates are an unavoidable part of the by-catch in demersal fisheries. Over the past 40 years, the thornback ray (Raja clavata) has decreased in numbers and even disappeared in some areas, leading to concerns about genetic risk. For this reason, the effective population size (Ne), the

  11. ABC_36_1_2013 Assessing the extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, territory size, and population size of marsh tapaculo (Scytalopus iraiensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klemann Jr., L.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available First described in 1998, the marsh tapaculo (Scytalopus iraiensis is an endangered bird of the family Rhinocryptidae. It is endemic to Brazil and is restricted to the wet flood plains of rivers and streams. Due to its cryptic habits and environments of occurrence, information available on its biology, natural history and distribution is scarce. We compiled occurrence records (99 records, delimited the extent of occurrences (296,584 km2, calculated the area of occupancy (84 km2, estimated territory size (5,313 ± 1,201 m2 per pair, population density (3.76 ± 0.85 individuals per hectare, and population size (31,584 ± 7,140 mature individuals of marsh tapaculo. The species was recorded in marshes associated to four types of vegetation and in four ecological zones. This new information is extremely important to support revaluation of the species’ threat category and to enhance knowledge about this endemic and little known bird from Brazil.

  12. Impact of anthropometrical parameters on portal vein diameter and liver size in a subset of Karachi based population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raza Siddiqui, Tanya; Hassan, Nuzhat; Gul, Pashmina

    2014-03-01

    The purpose was to study the impact of anthropometrical parameters on portal vein diameter and liver size by ultrasound in a subset of Karachi population. Four hundred and fifty nine apparently healthy subjects were included in this cross sectional study. After recording weight and height of each subject, Portal vein diameter and both liver lobes were measured by gray scale ultrasonography. Students T test and ANOVA were applied for statistical analyses. With increasing age, portal vein diameter and right lobe of liver increased significantly (p value Sizes of right and left liver lobes also increased with a rise in body mass index (p value size. Age and body mass index are reliable parameters to consider for avoiding false positive diagnosis of hepatomegaly and portal hypertension. Knowing the right and left liver size with respect to anthropometrical measurements also assist a clinician in selecting a subject for liver transplantation.

  13. Consistent loss of genetic diversity in isolated cutthroat trout populations independent of habitat size and quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellie J. Carim; Lisa A. Eby; Craig A. Barfoot; Matthew C. Boyer

    2016-01-01

    Fragmentation and isolation of wildlife populations has reduced genetic diversity worldwide, leaving many populations vulnerable to inbreeding depression and local extinction. Nonetheless, isolation is protecting many native aquatic species from interactions with invasive species, often making reconnection an unrealistic conservation strategy. Isolation management is...

  14. Gamete types, sex determination and stable equilibria of all-hybrid populations of diploid and triploid edible frogs (Pelophylax esculentus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiansen Ditte G

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Triploid individuals often play a key role in speciation by hybridization. An understanding of the gamete types (ploidy and genomic content and stability of hybrid populations with triploid individuals is therefore of importance for exploring the role of hybridization in evolution. The all-hybrid populations of the edible frog, Pelophylax esculentus, are unique in their composition and genetic dynamics: Diploid (genotype LR and triploid (LLR and LRR hybrids depend on each other's different gamete contributions for successful reproduction and maintenance of the populations, as the parental genotypes P. lessonae (LL and P. ridibundus (RR are absent among adults. This study provides data and interpretations on gamete types and sex determination that are essential for understanding the function, evolutionary potential and threats of this intriguing system. Results Dissection of metamorphs from a crossing experiment confirmed that sex determination is an XX-XY system with the Y confined to the L genome. From microsatellite analysis of parents and offspring from the crossings, gamete frequencies could be deduced: Triploids of both sexes mostly made haploid gametes with the genome they had in double dose, however LLR females also made approximately 10% LL gametes by automixis. LR frogs showed much variation in their gamete production. In LRR-rich populations, their LR sperm production was sufficiently high (22% to explain the observed proportion of LRR males, the formation of which has not previously been understood. A model was constructed to calculate equilibrium genotype proportions for different population types on the basis of the gamete proportions found. These equilibria agreed well with empirical literature data. Conclusion If population differentiation with respect to genotype proportions is really driven by gamete patterns, as strongly suggested by the present study, all-hybrid populations constitute not one, but several

  15. Gamete types, sex determination and stable equilibria of all-hybrid populations of diploid and triploid edible frogs (Pelophylax esculentus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Ditte G

    2009-01-01

    Background Triploid individuals often play a key role in speciation by hybridization. An understanding of the gamete types (ploidy and genomic content) and stability of hybrid populations with triploid individuals is therefore of importance for exploring the role of hybridization in evolution. The all-hybrid populations of the edible frog, Pelophylax esculentus, are unique in their composition and genetic dynamics: Diploid (genotype LR) and triploid (LLR and LRR) hybrids depend on each other's different gamete contributions for successful reproduction and maintenance of the populations, as the parental genotypes P. lessonae (LL) and P. ridibundus (RR) are absent among adults. This study provides data and interpretations on gamete types and sex determination that are essential for understanding the function, evolutionary potential and threats of this intriguing system. Results Dissection of metamorphs from a crossing experiment confirmed that sex determination is an XX-XY system with the Y confined to the L genome. From microsatellite analysis of parents and offspring from the crossings, gamete frequencies could be deduced: Triploids of both sexes mostly made haploid gametes with the genome they had in double dose, however LLR females also made approximately 10% LL gametes by automixis. LR frogs showed much variation in their gamete production. In LRR-rich populations, their LR sperm production was sufficiently high (22%) to explain the observed proportion of LRR males, the formation of which has not previously been understood. A model was constructed to calculate equilibrium genotype proportions for different population types on the basis of the gamete proportions found. These equilibria agreed well with empirical literature data. Conclusion If population differentiation with respect to genotype proportions is really driven by gamete patterns, as strongly suggested by the present study, all-hybrid populations constitute not one, but several intrinsically different

  16. Intermaxillary tooth size discrepancy in a Pakistani population: A stereomicroscope versus digital caliper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Fazal; Alam, Mohammad Khursheed; Khamis, Mohd Fadhli

    2016-01-01

    Comprehensive diagnosis and treatment planning are essential in a successful orthodontic practice. The purpose of this study is to determine and compare intermaxillary tooth size discrepancy (IMTSD) using traditional digital caliper (DC) measurement on plaster dental models and stereomicroscopic digital dental models (SM). The samples were randomly selected from different states of Pakistan. Total 7168 variables were measured on plaster dental casts (128) and SM digital dental models (128) according to the selection criteria. For IMTSD, the 6 variable measured as for anterior tooth size (maxilla, mandibular), overall tooth size (maxilla, mandibular), Bolton's anterior ratios (BAR), and Bolton's overall ratios (BOR). The independent t-test and ANOVA were used for statistical analyses. Significant sexual disparities in the sum of anterior tooth size and overall tooth size via DC and SM methods. No significant sexual disparities for BAR and BOR. No statistically significant differences were found in BAR and BOR between DC and SM. No significant differences were found on IMTSD ratio among different arch length and arch perimeters groups. Norms were developed based on DC and SM for IMTSD. Sexual disparities were observed in the sum of teeth size. However, no significant differences in BAR and BOR for IMTSD between the two methods.

  17. Greenspace, physical activity and well-being in Australian capital cities: how does population size moderate the relationship?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambrey, C L

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the synergy between greenspace and physical activity and its implications for well-being. In particular, how this synergy may depend on population size in the neighborhood. Cross-sectional analysis of resident-level responses from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey for 2013 subset to Australia's major capital cities and linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data. GIS data on greenspace and Australian Bureau of Statistics data on population size for the neighborhood are matched to the residents in the HILDA survey on the basis of the Census Collection District in which they reside. A cluster-specific fixed effects model is estimated for the outcomes of mental health and psychological distress. A battery of sociodemographic and location characteristics were also adjusted for. Interaction terms are used to discern the extent to which population size may moderate any synergistic well-being benefits associated with physical activity and greenspace. This question is ultimately operationalized as a three-way interaction effect (greenspace × physical activity × population size). The results indicate that physical activity is most strongly and positively associated with mental health (statistically significant at the 1% level), with an estimated coefficient of 0.6307. The results also reveal that physical activity is negatively associated with psychological distress (statistically significant at the 10% level), with an estimated coefficient of -0.2447. Unexpectedly, for both mental health and psychological distress the greenspace and population variables are not found to have separate statistically significant effects. Furthermore, while the results fail to find, on average, the hypothesized synergy between greenspace and physical activity, a closer inspection reveals that this link may depend on the population size of a neighborhood. The interaction term for greenspace, physical

  18. Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark-resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, James E; Kendall, William L; Royle, J Andrew; Converse, Sarah J; Andres, Brad A; Buchanan, Joseph B

    2016-03-01

    We present a novel formulation of a mark-recapture-resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state-space formulation of the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state-space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Per capita incidence of sexually transmitted infections increases systematically with urban population size: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Goldstein, Edward; Gómez-Liévano, Andrés; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Towers, Sherry

    2015-12-01

    Rampant urbanisation rates across the globe demand that we improve our understanding of how infectious diseases spread in modern urban landscapes, where larger and more connected host populations enhance the thriving capacity of certain pathogens. A data-driven approach is employed to study the ability of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) to thrive in urban areas. The conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socioeconomic characteristics are used as predictors of disease incidence, using confirmed-case data on STDs in the USA as a case study. A superlinear relation between STD incidence and urban population size is found, even after controlling for various socioeconomic aspects, suggesting that doubling the population size of a city results in an expected increase in STD incidence larger than twofold, provided that all other socioeconomic aspects remain fixed. Additionally, the percentage of African-Americans, income inequalities, education and per capita income are found to have a significant impact on the incidence of each of the three STDs studied. STDs disproportionately concentrate in larger cities. Hence, larger urban areas merit extra prevention and treatment efforts, especially in low-income and middle-income countries where urbanisation rates are higher. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  20. Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark–resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, James E.; Kendall, William L.; Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.; Andres, Brad A.; Buchanan, Joseph B.

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel formulation of a mark–recapture–resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state–space formulation of the Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state–space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers.

  1. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R; Foil, Lane D

    2016-01-12

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes.

  2. Whole-Genome Resequencing of Experimental Populations Reveals Polygenic Basis of Egg-Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Aashish R; Miles, Cecelia M; Lippert, Nodia R; Brown, Christopher D; White, Kevin P; Kreitman, Martin

    2015-10-01

    Complete genome resequencing of populations holds great promise in deconstructing complex polygenic traits to elucidate molecular and developmental mechanisms of adaptation. Egg size is a classic adaptive trait in insects, birds, and other taxa, but its highly polygenic architecture has prevented high-resolution genetic analysis. We used replicated experimental evolution in Drosophila melanogaster and whole-genome sequencing to identify consistent signatures of polygenic egg-size adaptation. A generalized linear-mixed model revealed reproducible allele frequency differences between replicated experimental populations selected for large and small egg volumes at approximately 4,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Several hundred distinct genomic regions contain clusters of these SNPs and have lower heterozygosity than the genomic background, consistent with selection acting on polymorphisms in these regions. These SNPs are also enriched among genes expressed in Drosophila ovaries and many of these genes have well-defined functions in Drosophila oogenesis. Additional genes regulating egg development, growth, and cell size show evidence of directional selection as genes regulating these biological processes are enriched for highly differentiated SNPs. Genetic crosses performed with a subset of candidate genes demonstrated that these genes influence egg size, at least in the large genetic background. These findings confirm the highly polygenic architecture of this adaptive trait, and suggest the involvement of many novel candidate genes in regulating egg size. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  3. Impact of forest fragment size on the population structure of three palm species (Arecaceae) in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portela, Rita de Cássia Quitete; dos Santos, Flavio Antonio Maes

    2014-06-01

    The main threats to natural populations in terrestrial ecosystems have been widly recognized to be the habitat fragmentation and the exploitation of forest products. In this study, we compared the density of the populations and the structure of three tropical palm species, Astrocaryum aculeatissimum, Euterpe edulis and Geonoma schottiana. For this, we selected five forest fragments of different sizes (3 500ha, 2 400ha, 57ha, 21ha and 19ha) where palms were censused in nine 30 x 30m plots. We tracked the palms survival from 2005 to 2007, and recorded all new individuals encountered. Each individual was assigned in one of the five ontogenetic stages: seedling, infant, juvenile, immature and reproductive. The demographic structure of each palm species was analyzed and compared by a generalized linear model (GLM). The analysis was performed per palm species. The forest fragment area and the year of observation were explanatory variables, and the proportion of individuals in each ontogenetic class and palm density were response variables. The total number of individuals (from seedlings to reproductives, of all species) monitored was 6 450 in 2005, 7 268 in 2006, and 8 664 in 2007. The densities of two palm species were not influenced by the size of the fragment, but the population density of A. aculeatissimum was dependent on the size of the fragment: there were more individuals in the bigger than in the smaller forest fragments. The population structure of A. aculeatissimum, E. edulis, and G. schottiana was not altered in the smaller fragments, except the infants of G. schottiana. The main point to be drawn from the results found in this study is that the responses of density and population structure seem not to be dependent on fragment size, except for one species that resulted more abundant in bigger fragments.

  4. Estimation of the size of an open population from capture-recapture data using weighted martingale methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggins, R M; Yip, P S

    1999-06-01

    A weighted martingale method, akin to a moving average, is proposed to allow the use of modified closed-population methods in the estimation of the size of a smoothly changing open population when there are frequent capture occasions. We concentrate here on modifications to martingale estimating functions for model Mt, but a wide range of closed-population estimators may be modified in this fashion. The method is motivated by and applied to weekly capture-recapture data from the Mai Po bird sanctuary in Hong Kong. Simulations show that the weighted martingale estimator compared well with the Jolly-Seber estimator when the conditions for the latter to be valid are met, and it performed far better when individuals were allowed to leave and reenter the population. Expressions are derived for the asymptotic bias and variance of the estimator in an appendix.

  5. Influence of family size and birth order on risk of cancer: a population-based study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bevier, Melanie; Weires, Marianne; Thomsen, Hauke; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

    2011-01-01

    Family size and birth order are known to influence the risk of some cancers. However, it is still unknown whether these effects change from early to later adulthood. We used the data of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to further analyze these effects. We selected over 5.7 million offspring with identified parents but no parental cancer. We estimated the effect of birth order and family size by Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, period, region and socioeconomic status. We divided the age at diagnosis in two groups, below and over 50 years, to identify the effect of family size and birth order for different age periods. Negative associations for increasing birth order were found for endometrial, testicular, skin, thyroid and connective tissue cancers and melanoma. In contrast, we observed positive association between birth order and lung, male and female genital cancers. Family size was associated with decreasing risk for endometrial and testicular cancers, melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma; risk was increased for leukemia and nervous system cancer. The effect of birth order decreased for lung and endometrial cancer from age at diagnosis below to over 50 years. Combined effects for birth order and family size were marginally significant for thyroid gland tumors. Especially, the relative risk for follicular thyroid gland tumors was significantly decreased for increasing birth order. Our findings suggest that the effect of birth order decreases from early to late adulthood for lung and endometrial cancer

  6. Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

    2010-01-01

    Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY

  7. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Hailong; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males) using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km) of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

  8. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailong Dou

    Full Text Available Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations.

  9. Population structure and the evolution of sexual size dimorphism and sex ratios in an insular population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C.K.

    1997-01-01

    Hypotheses in the chelonian literature suggest that in species with sexual size dimorphism, the smaller sex will mature at a smaller size and a younger age than the larger sex, sex ratios should be biased in favor of the earlier maturing sex, and deviations from a 1:1 sex ratio result from maturation of the smaller sex at a younger age. I tested these hypotheses using data collected from 1991 to 1995 on an insular (Egmont Key) population of Florida box turtles, Terrapene carolina bauri. Contrary to predictions, the earlier maturing sex (males) grew to larger sizes than the late maturing sex. Males were significantly larger than females in mean carapace length but not mean body mass. Sex ratios were not balanced, favoring the earlier maturing sex (1.6 males:1 female), but the sex-ratio imbalance did not result from faster maturation of the smaller sex. The imbalance in the sex ratio in Egmont Key's box turtles is not the result of sampling biases; it may result from nest placement. Size-class structure and sex ratios can provide valuable insights into the status and trends of populations of long-lived turtles.

  10. A stable metal-organic framework with suitable pore sizes and rich uncoordinated nitrogen atoms on the internal surface of micropores for highly efficient CO2 capture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bao, S.J.; Krishna, R.; He, Y.B.; Qin, J.S.; Su, Z.M.; Li, S.L.; Xie, W.; Du, D.Y.; He, W.W.; Zhang, S.R.; Lan, Y.Q.

    2015-01-01

    An air-stable tetrazolate-containing framework, [ZN(2)L(2)]center dot 2DMF (NENU-520, H2L = 4-(1H-tetrazole-5-yl) biphenyl-4-carboxylic acid), with uncoordinated N atoms on its internal surface was solvothermally synthesized and structurally characterized. This metal-organic framework (MOF)

  11. Positive global solutions for a general model of size-dependent population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Kato

    2000-01-01

    have the growth rate depending on the size and time. The local existence and uniqueness of the solution have been shown by Kato and Torikata (1997. Here, we discuss the positivity of the solution and global existence as well as L ∞ solutions.

  12. Optimizing full-brain coverage in human brain MRI through population distributions of brain size

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mennes, M.; Jenkinson, M.; Valabregue, R.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Beckmann, C.F.; Smith, S.

    2014-01-01

    When defining an MRI protocol, brain researchers need to set multiple interdependent parameters that define repetition time (TR), voxel size, field-of-view (FOV), etc. Typically, researchers aim to image the full brain, making the expected FOV an important parameter to consider. Especially in 2D-EPI

  13. Non-Disclosing Students with Disabilities or Learning Challenges: Characteristics and Size of a Hidden Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimes, Susan; Scevak, Jill; Southgate, Erica; Buchanan, Rachel

    2017-01-01

    Internationally, university students with disabilities (SWD) are recognised as being under-represented in higher education. They face significant problems accessing appropriate accommodations for their disability. Academic outcomes for this group are lower in terms of achievement and graduation rates. The true size of the SWD group at university…

  14. Estimation of LDL Particle Size Using Lipid Indices: A Population-Based Study of 1578 Schoolchildren.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watabe, Yaeko; Arisaka, Osamu; Miyake, Noriko; Ichikawa, Go; Koyama, Satomi; Shimura, Naoto

    2015-12-01

    Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is atherogenic and LDL particles are reduced in diameter in the presence of insulin resistance, forming small, dense LDL. This study was conducted to assess the relationship between commonly used lipid indices and LDL particle size and furthermore to clarify the best surrogate lipid markers that could conveniently be used to estimate LDL particle size in children. We determined LDL particle diameter by gradient gel electrophoresis in 1578 children aged 10-12 years. At the fasting state, the relationships between measured LDL particle size and lipid variables [total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), atherogenic index [(TC-HDL-C)/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, and LDL-C/apolipoprotein B (Apo B) and non-HDL-C (TC-HDL-C)] were analyzed. The LDL particle diameter was 26.64 (mean) ± 0.48 (SD) nm in boys (n = 820) and 26.66 ± 0.49 nm in girls (n = 758); there was not a statistically significant difference. There were statistically significant correlations between LDL particle size and TG or HDL-C concentrations (r = 0.28∼0.37), but the correlations with LDL-C and ApoB were very weak. The combined lipid measures, such as atherogenic index, TC/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C showed moderate correlations (r = 0.33∼0.38) with LDL particle size; however, the correlation of non-HDL-C with LDL particle size was weak (r = 0.18∼0.19). Simple HDL-C measure appeared to be of comparable value to combined lipid measures. Our data indicate that various lipid indices are not superior to HDL-C levels alone as a clinical tool for estimating LDL particle size. Non-HDL-C was less valuable in this aspect.

  15. Fish population studies using parasites from the Southeastern Pacific Ocean: considering host population changes and species body size as sources of variability of parasite communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George-Nascimento, Mario; Oliva, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Research using parasites in fish population studies in the South Eastern Pacific (SEP) is summarized. There are 27 such studies (snapshots mainly) in single host species sampled at different geographic localities and at somewhat similar times. They have been devoted mainly to economically important species, though others on coastal and intertidal fish or on less- or non-commercial species provide insights on scales of temporal and spatial variation of parasite infracommunities. Later, we assess whether the probability of harbouring parasites depends on the host species body size. Our results indicate that a stronger tool for fish population studies may be developed under regular (long term) scrutiny of parasite communities, especially of small fish host species, due to their larger variability in richness, abundance and total biomass, than in large fish species. Finally, it might also be necessary to consider the effects of fishing on parasite communities as well as the natural oscillations (coupled or not) of host and parasite populations.

  16. Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colby, Sandra L.; Ortman, Jennifer M.

    2015-01-01

    Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the…

  17. Migration ecology and stopover population size of Red Knots Calidris canutus rufa at Mingan Archipelago after exiting the breeding grounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, James E.; Baker, Allan J.; González, Patricia M.; Aubry, Yves; Buidin, Christophe; Rochepault, Yann

    2018-01-01

    Populations of migratory birds present unique conservation challenges given the often vast distances separating critical resources throughout the annual cycle. Migration areas close to the breeding grounds represent a link between two key stages of the annual cycle, and understanding migration ecology as birds exit the breeding grounds may be particularly informative for successful conservation. We studied migration phenology and stopover ecology of an endangered subspecies of the Red Knot Calidris canutus rufa at a migration area relatively close to its breeding range. Using mark-recapture/resight data and a Jolly-Seber model for open populations, we described the arrival and departure schedules, stopover duration, and passage population size at the Mingan Archipelago, Quebec, Canada. Red Knots arrived at the study area in two distinct waves of birds separated by approximately 22 days. Nearly 30% of the passage population arrived in the first wave of arrivals during 15–18 July, and approximately 22% arrived in a second wave during 8–11 August. The sex-ratio in the stopover population at the time of the first wave was slightly skewed toward females, whereas the second wave was heavily skewed toward males. Because males remain on the breeding grounds to care for young, this may reflect successfulbreeding in the year of our study. The estimated stopover duration (population mean) was 11 days (95% credible interval: 10.3–11.7 days), but stopover persistence was variable throughout the season. We estimated a passage population size of 9,450 birds (8,355–10,710), a minimum estimate for reasons related to the duration of our sampling. Mingan Archipelago is thus an important migration area for this endangered subspecies and could be a priority in conservation planning. Our results also emphasize the advantages of mark-recapture/resight approaches for estimating migration phenology and stopover persistence.

  18. Population genetics data help to guide the conservation of palm species with small population sizes and fragmented habitats in Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren M. Gardiner

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The need to incorporate genetic data into conservation management decisions is increasingly recognised. However, many published studies represent a ‘gold standard’ of sampling, techniques, and analyses. Such rigour is often not possible with limited funding and resourcing available for developing plans for the increasing number of threatened species requiring conservation management. Two endemic palm species of the Itremo Massif in central Madagascar, Dypsis ambositrae and D. decipiens, are known to be threatened with extinction and conservation management for these species is a priority for the newly created protected area in the region. Methods The genetic diversity of these two species was studied using the relatively low-cost and rapid AFLP technique. DNA fragments generated using three primer combinations were analysed for 20 and 50 individuals of the two species, respectively, from across their ranges. Results Genetic diversity was relatively low for both species. The two sites where the highly restricted D. ambositrae grows were found to be genetically distinct (although overall heterozygosity was low. Despite having a much wider distribution and relatively large population, D. decipiens did not show clear geographical nor genetic groupings and had similarly low genetic heterozygosity to D. ambositrae. Discussion and Recommendations With so few individuals remaining in the wild and two genetically distinct subpopulations, it is recommended that both sites of D. ambositrae are conserved and that seed are collected from both for ex situ conservation and potential future reintroduction. It may be less important to focus resources on conserving or collecting ex situ material from all sites where D. decipiens is found, as the genetic diversity represented by each subpopulation is limited and increasing sampling may not protect significantly higher levels of genetic diversity. This study provides data that inform and support

  19. Body size and hosts of Triatoma infestans populations affect the size of bloodmeal contents and female fecundity in rural northwestern Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gürtler, Ricardo E; Fernández, María Del Pilar; Cecere, María Carla; Cohen, Joel E

    2017-12-01

    Human sleeping quarters (domiciles) and chicken coops are key source habitats of Triatoma infestans-the principal vector of the infection that causes Chagas disease-in rural communities in northern Argentina. Here we investigated the links among individual bug bloodmeal contents (BMC, mg), female fecundity, body length (L, mm), host blood sources and habitats. We tested whether L, habitat and host blood conferred relative fitness advantages using generalized linear mixed-effects models and a multimodel inference approach with model averaging. The data analyzed include 769 late-stage triatomines collected in 120 sites from six habitats in 87 houses in Figueroa, Santiago del Estero, during austral spring. L correlated positively with other body-size surrogates and was modified by habitat type, bug stage and recent feeding. Bugs from chicken coops were significantly larger than pig-corral and kitchen bugs. The best-fitting model of log BMC included habitat, a recent feeding, bug stage, log Lc (mean-centered log L) and all two-way interactions including log Lc. Human- and chicken-fed bugs had significantly larger BMC than bugs fed on other hosts whereas goat-fed bugs ranked last, in consistency with average blood-feeding rates. Fecundity was maximal in chicken-fed bugs from chicken coops, submaximal in human- and pig-fed bugs, and minimal in goat-fed bugs. This study is the first to reveal the allometric effects of body-size surrogates on BMC and female fecundity in a large set of triatomine populations occupying multiple habitats, and discloses the links between body size, microsite temperatures and various fitness components that affect the risks of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi.

  20. Complementary methods to estimate population size of Antillean Manatees (Sirenia: Trichechidae at Cienaga de Paredes, Santander, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.K. Arevalo-Gonzalez

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Information on manatee population size in Colombia is limited. This study was aimed at determining manatee population size in the Cienaga de Paredes (Colombia by three different methods: boat-based surveys, side-scan Sonar (SSS surveys and local interviews. Manatees were counted during breathing events by direct observation during the dry season, with the number of sightings per hour (NSH and maximum number of simultaneous sightings (MNSS used as occurrence indices. In 2002, we obtained an average NSH of 27.62 (SD=12.34 and the MNSS was 18; in 2010 the values were 55.71 (SD=29.79 and four respectively. Using linear-transect SSS data we estimated a population size of 12 individuals (%CV=27.3. The local community claimed that no hunting or entanglements had taken place in the area for over 20 years. These methods have pros and cons in terms of investment, effort, efficiency and community involvement, and their efficiency may vary in different seasons. Applying them in a complementary way and at greater spatial and temporal scales could enhance the accuracy of results.

  1. Relationships between necrotic cactus availability and population size in a cactophilic Drosophila (Diptera, Drosophilidae located on a sandstone table hill in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.M. Moraes

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Drosophila gouveai is a cactophilic species endemic to South America. In southeast Brazil it is found on summits of isolated hills, which apparently are current refugia resulting from climatic changes during the Quaternary Period. It breeds only in necrotic cactus cladodes of Pilosocereus machrisii. Temporal differences in necrotic cactus availability could have a great impact upon D. gouveai population size, and could thus influence its evolutionary history. We analyzed the relationship between necrotic cactus availability and population size of D. gouveai. The fluctuation in the population size, variation in necrotic cactus availability and exploitation of this resouce by larvae were surveyed bimonthly for one year on a sandstone table hill in central-south Brazil. Temporal necrotic cactus availability did not vary significantly, though in June there was a moderate decrease. Larval populations were highest in October and December. The D. gouveai population size was highest in February and remained relatively stable the rest of the year. The observed fluctuation in population size was not a function of temporal necrotic cactus availability in quantitative terms.Drosophila gouveai es una especie cactófila endémica de Sudamérica. En el sudeste de Brasil ella es encontrada en la cima de colinas aisladas, las cuales son actualmente refugios ambientales resultantes de los cambios climáticos acaecidos durante el Período Cuaternario. Ellas crían sólo en cladodios necróticos del cactus Pilosocereus machrisiii. Diferencias temporales en la disponibilidad de estos cladodios necróticos podrían tener un gran impacto sobre los tamaños de las poblaciones de D. gouveai, y por tanto influenciar su historia evolutiva. Nosotros analisamos las relaciones entre la disponibilidad de cactus en putrefacción y el tamaño de las poblaciones de D. gouveai. La fluctuación en los tamanõs poblacionales, la variación en disponibilidad de cactus y la

  2. A method for investigating population declines of migratory birds using stable isotopes: origins of harvested lesser scaup in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith A Hobson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging.Here we used hydrogen isotopes (deltaD to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999-2000 (n = 412 and 2000-2001 (n = 455. We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, deltaD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of deltaD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual deltaD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys.Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60 degrees N versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography.

  3. A Method for Investigating Population Declines of Migratory Birds Using Stable Isotopes: Origins of Harvested Lesser Scaup in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Keith A.; Wunder, Michael B.; Van Wilgenburg, Steven L.; Clark, Robert G.; Wassenaar, Leonard I.

    2009-01-01

    Background Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging. Methodology/Findings Here we used hydrogen isotopes (δD) to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999–2000 (n = 412) and 2000–2001 (n = 455). We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, δD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of δD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual δD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60°N) versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds) synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography. PMID:19946360

  4. Small population size of Pribilof Rock Sandpipers confirmed through distance-sampling surveys in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Gill, Robert E.; Dementyev, Maksim N.; Handel, Colleen M.

    2012-01-01

    The Rock Sandpiper (Calidris ptilocnemis) is endemic to the Bering Sea region and unique among shorebirds in the North Pacific for wintering at high latitudes. The nominate subspecies, the Pribilof Rock Sandpiper (C. p. ptilocnemis), breeds on four isolated islands in the Bering Sea and appears to spend the winter primarily in Cook Inlet, Alaska. We used a stratified systematic sampling design and line-transect method to survey the entire breeding range of this population during springs 2001-2003. Densities were up to four times higher on the uninhabited and more northerly St. Matthew and Hall islands than on St. Paul and St. George islands, which both have small human settlements and introduced reindeer herds. Differences in density, however, appeared to be more related to differences in vegetation than to anthropogenic factors, raising some concern for prospective effects of climate change. We estimated the total population at 19 832 birds (95% CI 17 853–21 930), ranking it among the smallest of North American shorebird populations. To determine the vulnerability of C. p. ptilocnemis to anthropogenic and stochastic environmental threats, future studies should focus on determining the amount of gene flow among island subpopulations, the full extent of the subspecies' winter range, and the current trajectory of this small population.

  5. The influence of population aging and size on the number of CT examinations in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ischa de Waard-Schalkx; Mathieu Pruppers; Harmen Bijwaard

    2014-01-01

    Exposures to ionizing radiation frommedical examinations are on the rise. An important cause for this has been the advent and ever-increasing use of computed tomography (CT) scans for diagnostic purposes. It is often implied that population aging contributes significantly to this rise. Here, the

  6. Abdim\\'s Stork Ciconia abdimii in Niger: population size, breeding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    –4, n = 36), suggesting a total post-fledging population of c. 83 500 birds (95% CL ± 51 267), excluding any non-breeding (sub)adults. The home range of six satellite-tagged breeders in 2003 was 10–120 km2 (median 36 km2); birds adjacent ...

  7. Population size and selection intensity effects on short-term response for a selection index in Tribolium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, J L; Turrado, H

    1997-01-12

    The effects of population size and selection intensity on the short-term response to selection were investigated in an experiment with Tribolium, using a two-trait empirical selection index for pupal and adult weights. Twenty lines were selected following a factorial design of five population sizes (1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 pairs of parents) and four selection intensities (20, 25, 33, and 50%), with three replicates. For each replicate, an unselected control with 16 pairs of parents was produced. There were four generations of selection per line. Selection response was significant in all lines with the 20% selection intensity and/or the 16-pair population size. Selection intensity and population size were significant effects and there was significant interaction between them. Higher selection intensities produced more overall significant response to selection (20% > (25% = 33%) > 50%); this significance was also found for the 16-pair population size. There was an overall significant difference among population sizes, with the larger population sizes giving more response than the smaller sizes (16-pair = 8-pair = 4-pair) > (2-pair = 1-pair); this significance was also found for the 20% selection intensity. There was a good agreement between observed and expected responses, except for the 50% selection intensity and/or 1-pair population size; expected values in generation 1 overestimated observed values. The realized heritability was similar in all lines. With equal and high numbers of individuals scored, it was better to choose a high selection intensity than a large population size. The results show that the effect of population size cannot be ignored, even in short-term selection response; the main influence of population size is through selection differential. RESUMEN: Los efectos del tamaño de población y la intensidad de selección sobre la respuesta a corto plazo para un índice de selección en Tribolium Los efectos del tamaño de población y la intensidad de

  8. Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, Joel A.

    2009-01-01

    Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

  9. Impact of minimum catch size on the population viability of Strombus gigas (Mesogastropoda: Strombidae inQuintana Roo, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne R. Peel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The queen conch Strombus gigas represents one of the most important fishery resources of the Caribbean but heavy fishing pressure has led to the depletion of stocks throughout the region, causing the inclusion of this species into CITES Appendix II and IUCN’s Red-List. In Mexico, the queen conch is managed through a minimum fishing size of 200mm shell length and a fishing quota which usually represents 50% of the adult biomass. The objectives of this study were to determine the intrinsic population growth rate of the queen conch population of Xel-Ha, Quintana Roo, Mexico, and to assess the effects of a regulated fishing impact, simulating the extraction of 50% adult biomass on the population density. We used three different minimum size criteria to demonstrate the effects of minimum catch size on the population density and discuss biological implications. Demographic data was obtained through capture-mark-recapture sampling, collecting all animals encountered during three hours, by three divers, at four different sampling sites of the Xel-Ha inlet. The conch population was sampled each month between 2005 and 2006, and bimonthly between 2006 and 2011, tagging a total of 8 292 animals. Shell length and lip thickness were determined for each individual. The average shell length for conch with formed lip in Xel-Ha was 209.39±14.18mm and the median 210mm. Half of the sampled conch with lip ranged between 200mm and 219mm shell length. Assuming that the presence of the lip is an indicator for sexual maturity, it can be concluded that many animals may form their lip at greater shell lengths than 200mm and ought to be considered immature. Estimation of relative adult abundance and densities varied greatly depending on the criteria employed for adult classification. When using a minimum fishing size of 200mm shell length, between 26.2% and up to 54.8% of the population qualified as adults, which represented a simulated fishing impact of almost one

  10. Impact of minimum catch size on the population viability of Strombus gigas (Mesogastropoda: Strombidae) in Quintana Roo, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peel, Joanne R; Mandujano, María del Carmen

    2014-12-01

    The queen conch Strombus gigas represents one of the most important fishery resources of the Caribbean but heavy fishing pressure has led to the depletion of stocks throughout the region, causing the inclusion of this species into CITES Appendix II and IUCN's Red-List. In Mexico, the queen conch is managed through a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length and a fishing quota which usually represents 50% of the adult biomass. The objectives of this study were to determine the intrinsic population growth rate of the queen conch population of Xel-Ha, Quintana Roo, Mexico, and to assess the effects of a regulated fishing impact, simulating the extraction of 50% adult biomass on the population density. We used three different minimum size criteria to demonstrate the effects of minimum catch size on the population density and discuss biological implications. Demographic data was obtained through capture-mark-recapture sampling, collecting all animals encountered during three hours, by three divers, at four different sampling sites of the Xel-Ha inlet. The conch population was sampled each month between 2005 and 2006, and bimonthly between 2006 and 2011, tagging a total of 8,292 animals. Shell length and lip thickness were determined for each individual. The average shell length for conch with formed lip in Xel-Ha was 209.39 ± 14.18 mm and the median 210 mm. Half of the sampled conch with lip ranged between 200 mm and 219 mm shell length. Assuming that the presence of the lip is an indicator for sexual maturity, it can be concluded that many animals may form their lip at greater shell lengths than 200 mm and ought to be considered immature. Estimation of relative adult abundance and densities varied greatly depending on the criteria employed for adult classification. When using a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length, between 26.2% and up to 54.8% of the population qualified as adults, which represented a simulated fishing impact of almost one third of the

  11. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

    2008-09-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed.

  12. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  13. Population characteristics of submicrometer-sized craters on regolith particles from asteroid Itokawa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Toru; Hasegawa, S.; Nakao, S.; Sakai, M.; Yurimoto, H.

    2018-03-01

    We investigated impact crater structures on regolith particles from asteroid Itokawa using scanning electron microscopy. We observed the surfaces of 51 Itokawa particles, ranging from 15 μm to 240 μm in size. Craters with average diameters ranging from 10 nm to 2.8 μm were identified on 13 Itokawa particles larger than 80 μm. We examined the abundance, spatial distribution, and morphology of approximately 900 craters on six Itokawa particles. Craters with sizes in excess of 200 nm are widely dispersed, with spatial densities from 2.6 μm2 to 4.5 μm2; a fraction of the craters was locally concentrated with a density of 0.1 μm2. The fractal dimension of the cumulative crater diameters ranges from 1.3 to 2.3. Craters of several tens of nanometers in diameter exhibit pit and surrounding rim structures. Craters of more than 100 nm in diameter commonly have melted residue at their bottom. These morphologies are similar to those of submicrometer-sized craters on lunar regolith. We estimated the impactor flux on Itokawa regolith-forming craters, assuming that the craters were accumulated during direct exposure to the space environment for 102 to 104 yr. The range of impactor flux onto Itokawa particles is estimated to be at least one order of magnitude higher than the interplanetary dust flux and comparable to the secondary impact flux on the Moon. This indicates that secondary ejecta impacts are probably the dominant cratering process in the submicrometer range on Itokawa regolith particles, as well as on the lunar surface. We demonstrate that secondary submicrometer craters can be produced anywhere in centimeter- to meter-sized depressions on Itokawa's surface through primary interplanetary dust impacts. If the surface unevenness on centimeter to meter scales is a significant factor determining the abundance of submicrometer secondary cratering, the secondary impact flux could be independent of the overall shapes or sizes of celestial bodies, and the secondary

  14. Mature male parr contribution to the effective size of an anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population over 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnstone, Devon L; O'Connell, Michael F; Palstra, Friso P; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2013-05-01

    We describe temporal changes in the genetic composition of a small anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population from South Newfoundland, an area where salmon populations are considered threatened (COSEWIC 2010). We examined the genetic variability (13 microsatellite loci) in 869 out-migrating smolt and post-spawning kelt samples, collected from 1985 to 2011 for a total of 22 annual collections and a 30 year span of assigned cohorts. We estimated the annual effective number of breeders (Nb) and the generational effective population size (Ne) through genetic methods and demographically using the adult sex ratio. Comparisons between genetic and demographic estimates show that the adult spawners inadequately explain the observed Ne estimates, suggesting that mature male parr are significantly increasing Nb and Ne over the study period. Spawning as parr appears to be a viable and important strategy in the near absence of adult males. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, Henrik Barner

    2008-01-01

    . Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates......Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions...... of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa...

  16. Evidences of delayed size recovery in Araucaria angustifolia populations after post-glacial colonization of highlands in Southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdir M. Stefenon

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Up to date, little is known about the relationship between historical demography and the current genetic structure of A. Angus As a first effort towards overcoming this lack, microsatellite data scored in six populations and isozyme allele frequencies published for 11 natural stands of this species were analysed in order to assess molecular signatures of populations' demographic history. Signatures of genetic bottlenecks were captured in all analysed populations of southeastern Brazil. Among southern populations, signatures of small effective population size were observed in only three out of 13 populations. Southern populations likely experienced faster recovery of population size after migration onto highlands. Accordingly, current genetic diversity of the southern populations gives evidence of fast population size recovery. In general, demographic history of A. Angusmatches climatic dynamics of southern and southeastern Brazil during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Palynological records and reconstruction of the past climatic dynamics of southeastern and southern Brazil support the hypothesis of different population size recovery dynamics for populations from these regions.Até o momento, pouco se conhece sobre a relação entre história demográfica e a presente estrutura genética da A. Angus Como uma primeira tentativa em transpor esta deficiência, dados de microssatélites coletados em seis populações e freqüências alélicas de isoenzimas publicadas para 11 populações naturais desta espécie foram analisadas com o objetivo de acessar assinaturas moleculares da história demográfica populacional. Assinaturas de gargalos genéticos foram capturadas em todas as populações analisadas provenientes do Sudeste do Brasil. Entre as populações do Sul, assinaturas de pequeno tamanho populacional efetivo foram observadas em somente três entre 13 populações. Populações do Sul provavelmente apresentaram u