Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

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Manas Pandey

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

A COMPARISON OF BASIC AND EXTENDED MARKOWITZ MODEL ON CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET

OpenAIRE

Bruna Škarica; Zrinka Lukač

2012-01-01

Markowitz' mean - variance model for portfolio selection, first introduced in H.M. Markowitz' 1952 article, is one of the best known models in finance. However, the Markowitz model is based on many assumptions about financial markets and investors, which do not coincide with the real world. One of these assumptions is that there are no taxes or transaction costs, when in reality all financial products are subject to both taxes and transaction costs – such as brokerage fees. In this pape...

Designing Modern Equity Portfolios

OpenAIRE

Ronald Jean Degen

2011-01-01

This aim of this paper is to describe possible ways of investing in equity; choosing the right stocks(among small-cap, large-cap, value, growth, and foreign) using fundamental analysis, defining their appropriate mix in the portfolios according to the desired return-risk profiles based on Markowitz?s modern portfolio theory, and using technical analysis to buy and sell them.

Portfolio Optimization

OpenAIRE

Issagali, Aizhan; Alshimbayeva, Damira; Zhalgas, Aidana

2015-01-01

In this paper Portfolio Optimization techniques were used to determine the most favorable investment portfolio. In particular, stock indices of three companies, namely Microsoft Corporation, Christian Dior Fashion House and Shevron Corporation were evaluated. Using this data the amounts invested in each asset when a portfolio is chosen on the efficient frontier were calculated. In addition, the Portfolio with minimum variance, tangency portfolio and optimal Markowitz portfolio are presented.

A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

QIAN Edward Y.; FENG Ying; HIGGISION James

2005-01-01

This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and Sharpe's rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institutional or individual investor can combine Markowitz's portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe's rule and Value-at-Risk(VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the generalized Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe's rule improve decision making for investment.

Study about Markowitz Model Applicability on Romanian Stock Exchange Market

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Leonardo Badea

2006-11-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the application of the analysis on a portfolio made up of eight titles, through determination of the portfolio with absolute minimum variation and of the frontier of efficiency. Thus, using the Markowitz model, the dimensions of the portfolio with minimum absolute variation could be established but its profitability was smaller than the profitability offered by the BET rating. The best strategy to follow in this respect would have been to adopt a passive strategy and to take over the structure of the rating in the investment of portfolio for a good profitability but with a higher risk.

Study about Markowitz Model Applicability on Romanian Stock Exchange Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Badea

2006-09-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the application of the analysis on a portfolio made up of eight titles, through determination of the portfolio with absolute minimum variation and of the frontier of efficiency. Thus, using the Markowitz model, the dimensions of the portfolio with minimum absolute variation could be established but its profitability was smaller than the profitability offered by the BET rating. The best strategy to follow in this respect would have been to adopt a passive strategy and to take over the structure of the rating in the investment of portfolio for a good profitability but with a higher risk.

Deformed exponentials and portfolio selection

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Ana Flávia P.; Guerreiro, Igor M.; Cavalcante, Charles Casimiro

In this paper, we present a method for portfolio selection based on the consideration on deformed exponentials in order to generalize the methods based on the gaussianity of the returns in portfolio, such as the Markowitz model. The proposed method generalizes the idea of optimizing mean-variance and mean-divergence models and allows a more accurate behavior for situations where heavy-tails distributions are necessary to describe the returns in a given time instant, such as those observed in economic crises. Numerical results show the proposed method outperforms the Markowitz portfolio for the cumulated returns with a good convergence rate of the weights for the assets which are searched by means of a natural gradient algorithm.

METHODS OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT - A REVIEW OF LITERATURE -

OpenAIRE

CRISTINA CURUTIU

2008-01-01

In recent years, a growing body of literature in portfolio management has devoted a great deal of attention for this subject. The theoretical foundation to portfolio management was offered by Harry Markowitz at the beginning of the 1950s. The limitations of the original Markowitz model have stimulated the occurrence of extended or modified models – two of the best known (and criticized) being the equilibrium models: CAPM (capital asset pricing model) and APT (arbitrage pricing theory). Altern...

A General Framework for Portfolio Theory. Part I: theory and various models

OpenAIRE

Maier-Paape, Stanislaus; Zhu, Qiji Jim

2017-01-01

Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz [H. Markowitz, Portfolio Selection, 1959] and its natural generalization, the capital market pricing model, [W. F. Sharpe, Mutual fund performance , 1966] are spe...

Different Variants of Fundamental Portfolio

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Tarczyński Waldemar

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes the fundamental portfolio of securities. This portfolio is an alternative for the classic Markowitz model, which combines fundamental analysis with portfolio analysis. The method’s main idea is based on the use of the TMAI1 synthetic measure and, in limiting conditions, the use of risk and the portfolio’s rate of return in the objective function. Different variants of fundamental portfolio have been considered under an empirical study. The effectiveness of the proposed solutions has been related to the classic portfolio constructed with the help of the Markowitz model and the WIG20 market index’s rate of return. All portfolios were constructed with data on rates of return for 2005. Their effectiveness in 2006- 2013 was then evaluated. The studied period comprises the end of the bull market, the 2007-2009 crisis, the 2010 bull market and the 2011 crisis. This allows for the evaluation of the solutions’ flexibility in various extreme situations. For the construction of the fundamental portfolio’s objective function and the TMAI, the study made use of financial and economic data on selected indicators retrieved from Notoria Serwis for 2005.

Mean--variance portfolio optimization when means and covariances are unknown

OpenAIRE

Tze Leung Lai; Haipeng Xing; Zehao Chen

2011-01-01

Markowitz's celebrated mean--variance portfolio optimization theory assumes that the means and covariances of the underlying asset returns are known. In practice, they are unknown and have to be estimated from historical data. Plugging the estimates into the efficient frontier that assumes known parameters has led to portfolios that may perform poorly and have counter-intuitive asset allocation weights; this has been referred to as the "Markowitz optimization enigma." After reviewing differen...

Modern Portfolio Theory: Some Main Results

OpenAIRE

Müller, Heinz H.

2017-01-01

This article summarizes some main results in modern portfolio theory. First, the Markowitz approach is presented. Then the capital asset pricing model is derived and its empirical testability is discussed. Afterwards Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory is applied to the portfolio problem. Finally, it is shown how optimal risk allocation in an economy may lead to portfolio insurance

The Role of Agribusiness Assets in Investment Portfolios

OpenAIRE

Johnson, Michael; Malcolm, Bill; O'Connor, Ian

2006-01-01

Investment in agribusiness assets has grown significantly in recent years. The question of interest is whether including agribusiness assets in investment portfolios provide benefits. The effects of diversification by including agribusiness assets in two investment portfolios, a mixed asset portfolio and a diversified share portfolio was investigated using Markowitz’s (1952) Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of mean-variance optimization. To measure the performance of agribusiness assets, an in...

On the Equivalence of Quadratic Optimization Problems Commonly Used in Portfolio Theory

OpenAIRE

Taras Bodnar; Nestor Parolya; Wolfgang Schmid

2012-01-01

In the paper, we consider three quadratic optimization problems which are frequently applied in portfolio theory, i.e, the Markowitz mean-variance problem as well as the problems based on the mean-variance utility function and the quadratic utility.Conditions are derived under which the solutions of these three optimization procedures coincide and are lying on the efficient frontier, the set of mean-variance optimal portfolios. It is shown that the solutions of the Markowitz optimization prob...

Optimization of the bank's operating portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Borodachev, S. M.; Medvedev, M. A.

2016-06-01

The theory of efficient portfolios developed by Markowitz is used to optimize the structure of the types of financial operations of a bank (bank portfolio) in order to increase the profit and reduce the risk. The focus of this paper is to check the stability of the model to errors in the original data.

Mean-Variance portfolio optimization when each asset has individual uncertain exit-time

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Reza Keykhaei

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The standard Markowitz Mean-Variance optimization model is a single-period portfolio selection approach where the exit-time (or the time-horizon is deterministic. ‎In this paper we study the Mean-Variance portfolio selection problem ‎with ‎uncertain ‎exit-time ‎when ‎each ‎has ‎individual uncertain ‎xit-time‎, ‎which generalizes the Markowitz's model‎. ‎‎‎‎‎‎We provide some conditions under which the optimal portfolio of the generalized problem is independent of the exit-times distributions. Also, ‎‎it is shown that under some general circumstances, the sets of optimal portfolios‎ ‎in the generalized model and the standard model are the same‎.

Three Essays on Robust Optimization of Efficient Portfolios

OpenAIRE

Liu, Hao

2013-01-01

The mean-variance approach was first proposed by Markowitz (1952), and laid the foundation of the modern portfolio theory. Despite its theoretical appeal, the practical implementation of optimized portfolios is strongly restricted by the fact that the two inputs, the means and the covariance matrix of asset returns, are unknown and have to be estimated by available historical information. Due to the estimation risk inherited from inputs, desired properties of estimated optimal portfolios are ...

On the microeconomic problems studied by portfolio theory

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Nikonov, Oleg; Medvedeva, Marina

2012-09-01

In the paper we consider economically motivated problems, which are treated with the help of methods of portfolio theory that goes back to the papers by H. Markowitz [1] and J. Tobin [2]. We show that the portfolio theory initially developed for risky securities (stocks) could be applied to other objects. In the present paper we consider several situations where such an application is reasonable and seems to be fruitful. Namely, we consider the problems of constructing the efficient portfolio of banking services and the portfolio of counteragents of a firm.

Analisis Portofolio Saham dengan Metode Capm dan Markowitz

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Hartiwi Prabowo

2013-05-01

Full Text Available  LQ45 index is a row of 45 stocks with the largest commercial transactions in BEI. These stocks are also commonly referred to as blue-chip stocks. Stocks at LQ 45 index must meet the criteria and pass a predetermined key. The LQ 45 stocks are continuously being monitored and will be a reviewed for every 6 months (early February and August. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM is used to estimate the return of a securities, while minimizing the risk to the desired level of returns in stock investing can be done by way of diversification or invest the funds into more than one type of securities (forming portfolios. The purpose of this study was to determine the expected return, and choosing the best stocks to obtain the optimal portfolio composition and profitable to invest. This study uses secondary data, ie data LQ 45, stock prices, the level of available SBI Stock Exchange, BI, and websites. To analyze the data, the writer used method of CAPM and Markowitz Portfolio. The results showed the election of 5 stocks of the most profitable for investors, namely stock UNTR, SMCB, ASII, INDF and BBRI. For companies that issue stocks should interact more with the society and the capital markets to attract more investors.

Down-Side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the Global Financial Crisis

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David E. Allen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies, with a focus on down-side risk metrics, as a portfolio diversification strategy in a European market context. We apply these measures to a set of daily arithmetically-compounded returns, in U.S. dollar terms, on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine-year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and the subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC, is a challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and backtests. We commence by using four two-year estimation periods and a subsequent one-year investment hold out period, to analyse a naive 1/N diversification strategy and to contrast its effectiveness with Markowitz mean variance analysis with positive weights. Markowitz optimisation is then compared to various down-side investment optimisation strategies. We begin by comparing Markowitz with CVaR, and then proceed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of Markowitz with various draw-down strategies, utilising a series of backtests. Our results suggest that none of the more sophisticated optimisation strategies appear to dominate naive diversification.

A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

Science.gov (United States)

Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

2013-10-01

Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

Particle swarm optimization algorithm for mean-variance portfolio optimization: A case study of Istanbul Stock Exchange

OpenAIRE

Akyer, Hasan; Kalaycı, Can Berk; Aygören, Hakan

2018-01-01

Whileinvestors used to create their portfolios according to traditional portfoliotheory in the past, today modern portfolio approach is widely preferred. Thebasis of the modern portfolio theory was suggested by Harry Markowitz with themean variance model. A greater number of securities in a portfolio is difficultto manage and has an increased transaction cost. Therefore, the number ofsecurities in the portfolio should be restricted. The problem of portfoliooptimization with cardinality constr...

Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz

OpenAIRE

Mainik, Georg; Mitov, Georgi; Rüschendorf, Ludger

2015-01-01

Using daily returns of the S&P 500 stocks from 2001 to 2011, we perform a backtesting study of the portfolio optimization strategy based on the extreme risk index (ERI). This method uses multivariate extreme value theory to minimize the probability of large portfolio losses. With more than 400 stocks to choose from, our study seems to be the first application of extreme value techniques in portfolio management on a large scale. The primary aim of our investigation is the potential of ERI in p...

Speaking Personally--With Hal Markowitz

Science.gov (United States)

Pittman, Von

2012-01-01

This article presents an interview with Hal Markowitz, a veteran distance educator whose experience in the field is both deep and broad. Building on bachelor's and master's degrees at the University of Florida and his doctorate at Columbia University, Markowitz served in leadership roles in several professional organizations and directed distance…

Promoting Affordability in Defense Acquisitions: A Multi-Period Portfolio Approach

Science.gov (United States)

2014-04-30

has evolved out of many areas of research, ranging from economics to modern control theory (Powell, 2011). The general form of a dynamic programming...states 5 School of Aeronautics & Astronautics A Portfolio Approach: Background • Balance expected profit (performance) against risk ( variance ) in...investments (Markowitz 1952) • Efficiency frontier of optimal portfolios given investor risk averseness • Extends to multi-period case with various

The Effects of Market Properties on Portfolio Diversification in the Korean and Japanese Stock Markets

OpenAIRE

Cheoljun Eom; Jongwon Park; Woo-Sung Jung; Taisei Kaizoji; Yong H. Kim

2009-01-01

In this study, we have investigated empirically the effects of market properties on the degree of diversification of investment weights among stocks in a portfolio. The weights of stocks within a portfolio were determined on the basis of Markowitz's portfolio theory. We identified that there was a negative relationship between the influence of market properties and the degree of diversification of the weights among stocks in a portfolio. Furthermore, we noted that the random matrix theory met...

Portfolio Optimization: A Combined Regime-Switching and Black–Litterman Model

OpenAIRE

Edwin O. Fischer; Immanuel Seidl

2013-01-01

Traditionally portfolios are optimized with the single-regime Markowitz model using the volatility as the risk measure and the historical return as the expected return. This study shows the effects that a regime-switching framework and alternative risk measures (modified value at risk and conditional value at risk) and return measures (CAPM estimates and Black–Litterman estimates) have on the asset allocation and on the absolute and relative performance of portfolios. It demonstrates that the...

A class of multi-period semi-variance portfolio for petroleum exploration and development

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Qiulin; Li, Jianzhong; Zou, Caineng; Guo, Yujuan; Yan, Wei

2012-10-01

Variance is substituted by semi-variance in Markowitz's portfolio selection model. For dynamic valuation on exploration and development projects, one period portfolio selection is extended to multi-period. In this article, a class of multi-period semi-variance exploration and development portfolio model is formulated originally. Besides, a hybrid genetic algorithm, which makes use of the position displacement strategy of the particle swarm optimiser as a mutation operation, is applied to solve the multi-period semi-variance model. For this class of portfolio model, numerical results show that the mode is effective and feasible.

PORTOFOLIO MARKOWITZ: UJI OPTIMAL HOLDING PERIOD DAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO BERDASARKAN KRITERIA RISIKO DAN TARGET RETURN

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Andi Ivand Markemo Boangmanalu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The concept of mean-variance optimization, developed by Markowitz, is the cornerstone of modern finance theory. The objective of this portfolio construction is to minimize investment risk by forming optimal portfolios. Dynamic movement in capital markets requires not only changes in portfolio composition. Optimal portfolio is not only determined by the covariance between securities in the portfolio, but also by holding period. The aims of this study is to answer two research questions. The first research question is how long the optimal holding period that was resulted from trade-off between risk and return. This study using target return that are determined hypothetically as well as the risk criteria are divided into 3 namely the mean variance, semivarians and expected loss. Target returns are simulated in this study were divided into 3 criteria namely aggressive, moderate and conservative. The second research question is whether there are differences among the various portfolio performance based on criteria of risk and target return. Portfolio performance is measured by using excess return and the Sharpe index. In this study, stocks covered in LQ-45 index are used to construct efficient portoflio. Monthly price series for company and LQ-45 index for February 2004 to September 2008 are collected. The analysis found that optimal holing period is ranges between 1-5 months. Holding period of a portfolio that more than 5 months will provide risk and return trade-off less favorable. In addition this study found that there was no significant differences in portfolio performance based on overall scenarios

Differentiated risk models in portfolio optimization: a comparative analysis of the degree of diversification and performance in the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA

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Ivan Ricardo Gartner

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Faced with so many risk modeling alternatives in portfolio optimization, several questions arise regarding their legitimacy, utility and applicability. In particular, a question arises involving the adherence of the alternative models with regard to the basic presupposition of Markowitz's classical model, with regard to the concept of diversification as a means of controlling the relationship between risk and return within a process of optimization. In this context, the aim of this article is to explore the risk-differentiated configurations that entropy can provide, from the point of view of the repercussions that these have on the degree of diversification and on portfolios performance. The reach of this objective requires that a comparative analysis is made between models that include entropy in their formulation and the classic Markowitz model. In order to contribute to this debate, this article proposes that adaptations are made to the models of relative minimum entropy and of maximum entropy, so that these can be applied to investment portfolio optimizations. The comparative analysis was based on performance indicators and on a ratio of the degree of portfolio diversification. The portfolios were formed by considering a sample of fourteen assets that compose the IBOVESPA, which were projected during the period from January 2007 to December 2009, and took into account the matrices of covariance that were formed as from January 1999. When comparing the Markowitz model with two models that were constructed to represent new risk configurations based on entropy optimization, the present study concluded that the first model was far superior to the others. Not only did the Markowitz model present better accumulated nominal yields, it also presented a far greater predictive efficiency and better effective performance, when considering the trade-off between risk and return. However, with regards to diversification, the Markowitz model concentrated

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan Dengan Keterbatasan Manusia Dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan Dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

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Noor Saif Muhammad Mussafi

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization. Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio  produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function  with constraints ≥ and = . The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis.

Leptokurtic portfolio theory

Science.gov (United States)

Kitt, R.; Kalda, J.

2006-03-01

The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurtic, because it minimises the effects from “fat tails” of returns. The leptokurtic portfolio theory provides an optimal portfolio for investors, who define their risk-aversion as unwillingness to experience sharp drawdowns in asset prices. Two types of risks in asset returns are defined: a fluctuation risk, that has Gaussian distribution, and a drawdown risk, that deals with distribution tails. These risks are quantitatively measured by defining the “noise kernel” — an ellipsoidal cloud of points in the space of asset returns. The size of the ellipse is controlled with the threshold parameter: the larger the threshold parameter, the larger return are accepted for investors as normal fluctuations. The return vectors falling into the kernel are used for calculation of fluctuation risk. Analogously, the data points falling outside the kernel are used for the calculation of drawdown risks. As a result the portfolio optimisation problem becomes three-dimensional: in addition to the return, there are two types of risks involved. Optimal portfolio for drawdown-averse investors is the portfolio minimising variance outside the noise kernel. The theory has been tested with MSCI North America, Europe and Pacific total return stock indices.

On long-only information-based portfolio diversification framework

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Raphael A.; Takada, Hellinton H.

2014-12-01

Using the concepts from information theory, it is possible to improve the traditional frameworks for long-only asset allocation. In modern portfolio theory, the investor has two basic procedures: the choice of a portfolio that maximizes its risk-adjusted excess return or the mixed allocation between the maximum Sharpe portfolio and the risk-free asset. In the literature, the first procedure was already addressed using information theory. One contribution of this paper is the consideration of the second procedure in the information theory context. The performance of these approaches was compared with three traditional asset allocation methodologies: the Markowitz's mean-variance, the resampled mean-variance and the equally weighted portfolio. Using simulated and real data, the information theory-based methodologies were verified to be more robust when dealing with the estimation errors.

Optimal portfolio selection for cashflows with bounded capital at risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vyncke, D.; Goovaerts, M.J.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Vanduffel, S.

2005-01-01

We consider a continuous-time Markowitz type portfolio problem that consists of minimizing the discounted cost of a given cash-fl ow under the constraint of a restricted Capital at Risk. In a Black-Scholes setting, upper and lower bounds are obtained by means of simple analytical expressions that

Fuzzy Investment Portfolio Selection Models Based on Interval Analysis Approach

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Haifeng Guo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper employs fuzzy set theory to solve the unintuitive problem of the Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio model and extend it to a fuzzy investment portfolio selection model. Our model establishes intervals for expected returns and risk preference, which can take into account investors' different investment appetite and thus can find the optimal resolution for each interval. In the empirical part, we test this model in Chinese stocks investment and find that this model can fulfill different kinds of investors’ objectives. Finally, investment risk can be decreased when we add investment limit to each stock in the portfolio, which indicates our model is useful in practice.

Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y

2004-06-01

The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model

USAGE OF THE MAIN COMPONENTS ANALYSIS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

OpenAIRE

Dan ARMEANU; Andreea NEGRU

2011-01-01

When managing investment portfolios on integrated capital markets, beyond the models put forth by the modern portfolio theory, (the Markowitz model, the CML model, the CAPM model, the Treynor-Black model and more), one can successfully resort to the statistical and mathematical tools made available by the multidimensional data analysis. The reason why we shall use those tools in our analysis is simple: they make it possible to reduce the number of variables in the analysis while preserving mu...

Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach

Science.gov (United States)

Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2013-04-01

Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.

A diversified portfolio model of adaptability.

Science.gov (United States)

Chandra, Siddharth; Leong, Frederick T L

2016-12-01

A new model of adaptability, the diversified portfolio model (DPM) of adaptability, is introduced. In the 1950s, Markowitz developed the financial portfolio model by demonstrating that investors could optimize the ratio of risk and return on their portfolios through risk diversification. The DPM integrates attractive features of a variety of models of adaptability, including Linville's self-complexity model, the risk and resilience model, and Bandura's social cognitive theory. The DPM draws on the concept of portfolio diversification, positing that diversified investment in multiple life experiences, life roles, and relationships promotes positive adaptation to life's challenges. The DPM provides a new integrative model of adaptability across the biopsychosocial levels of functioning. More importantly, the DPM addresses a gap in the literature by illuminating the antecedents of adaptive processes studied in a broad array of psychological models. The DPM is described in relation to the biopsychosocial model and propositions are offered regarding its utility in increasing adaptiveness. Recommendations for future research are also offered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

COVARIANCE STABILITY AND THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE IMPACT IN THE PORTFOLIO OF THE 10 BIGGEST COMPANIES IN BM&FBOVESPA BETWEEN 2004 E 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leticia Naomi Ono Maeda

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study's purpose is to analyse the covariance between the ten biggest participants of the BM&FBovespa stock market to test the influence of the instability in the covariance between assets to the structure of a portfolio of investments of a portfolio composed by this assets. To acomplish that, we check the covariances between the daily returns of the 10 selected stocks before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The procedure of this research includes: (1 collection of returns of the selected stocks between 2004 and 2012; (2 the composition of the classical portfolio theory proposed by Markowitz(1952; and (3 the measurement of the effect of the unstable covariance between the 10 selected assets in the maintenance of the portfolio when controlling for return and risk preferences of a hipotetical investor. We find that asset correlations are impacted by the assets covariances that not stable in the whole time set for the study but are specialy sensitive in the financial crisis period. This means that both risk and return of the portfolio will change greatly if the weights are not recalculated from time to time. This suports the idea that portfolio theory might benefit from the development of stability weigthed techniques are developed.

Linear versus quadratic portfolio optimization model with transaction cost

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Razak, Norhidayah Bt Ab; Kamil, Karmila Hanim; Elias, Siti Masitah

2014-06-01

Optimization model is introduced to become one of the decision making tools in investment. Hence, it is always a big challenge for investors to select the best model that could fulfill their goal in investment with respect to risk and return. In this paper we aims to discuss and compare the portfolio allocation and performance generated by quadratic and linear portfolio optimization models namely of Markowitz and Maximin model respectively. The application of these models has been proven to be significant and popular among others. However transaction cost has been debated as one of the important aspects that should be considered for portfolio reallocation as portfolio return could be significantly reduced when transaction cost is taken into consideration. Therefore, recognizing the importance to consider transaction cost value when calculating portfolio' return, we formulate this paper by using data from Shariah compliant securities listed in Bursa Malaysia. It is expected that, results from this paper will effectively justify the advantage of one model to another and shed some lights in quest to find the best decision making tools in investment for individual investors.

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION ON CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET

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Sinisa Bogdan

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this paper was to research portfolio optimization problem on Croatian capital market using Markowitz theory. Research systematically investigated the selection of securities, and defined the importance of using fundamental analysis when selecting the best combination of securities. Since fundamental analysis involves a large number of indicators, this paper selected key indicators that enable a complete and quick securities review on the market. This paper clarifies diversification effect and influence of the correlation coefficient on diversification. Two basic types of assets (stocks and cash funds have been chosen to build the optimal portfolio. Cash funds were selected because they represent a form of risk-free investment, while stocks were chosen because of the high level of return which they achieve. At the end of paper, optimal portfolio was calculated with an excellent yield of 1.82% and deviation of 5.77% on a monthly basis which corresponds to the minimum deviation of the selected stocks. Calculated optimal portfolio achieves better expected value than investing in stock index CROBEX, which for the same period achieves the expected result of -0.02%.

Automated Portfolio Optimization Based on a New Test for Structural Breaks

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Tobias Berens

2014-04-01

Full Text Available We present a completely automated optimization strategy which combines the classical Markowitz mean-variance portfolio theory with a recently proposed test for structural breaks in covariance matrices. With respect to equity portfolios, global minimum-variance optimizations, which base solely on the covariance matrix, yield considerable results in previous studies. However, financial assets cannot be assumed to have a constant covariance matrix over longer periods of time. Hence, we estimate the covariance matrix of the assets by respecting potential change points. The resulting approach resolves the issue of determining a sample for parameter estimation. Moreover, we investigate if this approach is also appropriate for timing the reoptimizations. Finally, we apply the approach to two datasets and compare the results to relevant benchmark techniques by means of an out-of-sample study. It is shown that the new approach outperforms equally weighted portfolios and plain minimum-variance portfolios on average.

Use of crops and livestock futures contracts in portfolios: an analysis of feasibility

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Mattos Fabio L.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available According to Portfolio Theory, by combining assets that show a correlation inferior to one (1 among their individual returns, it becomes possible to create portfolios that reduce risk without damaging expected return. Crop and livestock futures contracts and company stocks show such a characteristic, which signals potential benefits when forming portfolios combining these two types of assets. This investment strategy is not often utilized in Brazil. The purpose of our research was to assess whether such an asset combination is actually advantageous to those creating investment portfolios in the Brazilian market. Our evaluation used instruments of analysis developed by Markowitz in Portfolio Theory and data about the return from crop and livestock futures contracts and stocks. The data was gathered from the Brazilian Futures and Commodities Exchange (BM&F and Brazil?s National Association of Open Market Institutions (ANDIMA between July 1994 and December 1998. The results of this work showed that the combination of these two types of assets in investment portfolios can be an interesting portfolio management alternative.

Portfolio Optimization Using Particle Swarms with Stripes

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Mario Villalobos Arias

2011-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper it is consider the Portfolio Optimization Problem developed by Markowitz [11]. The basic assumption is that the investor tries to maximize his/her profit and at the same time, wants to minimize the risk. This problem is usually solved using a scalarization approach (with one objective. Here it is solved it as a bi-objective  optimization problem. It uses a new version of the algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization for Multi-Objective Problems to which it implemented a method of the stripes to improve dispersion.

USEFULNESS OF BOOTSTRAPPING IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

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Boris Radovanov

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper contains a comparison of in-sample and out-of-sample performances between the resampled efficiency technique, patented by Richard Michaud and Robert Michaud (1999, and traditional Mean-Variance portfolio selection, presented by Harry Markowitz (1952. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation, data (samples generation process determines the algorithms by using both, parametric and nonparametric bootstrap techniques. Resampled efficiency provides the solution to use uncertain information without the need for constrains in portfolio optimization. Parametric bootstrap process starts with a parametric model specification, where we apply Capital Asset Pricing Model. After the estimation of specified model, the series of residuals are used for resampling process. On the other hand, nonparametric bootstrap divides series of price returns into the new series of blocks containing previous determined number of consecutive price returns. This procedure enables smooth resampling process and preserves the original structure of data series.

Recent evolution of italian households’ equity portfolio choices: an empirical investigation

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Attilio Gardini

2013-05-01

Full Text Available We study Italian households’ portfolio choices, with a special focus on equity investments, by analysing jointly time series and cross-sectional portfolio data. We investigate the temporal evolution of the actual composition of Italian households’ investments in order to explain their portfolio choices and to detect possible determinants of the observed disequilibria phenomena. Moreover, we model the stock market participation choice by using probit regression techniques and we test for parameter stability over time. Instability of participation parameters and a peculiar evolution of Italian households’ portfolios pointed out by our concurrent analysis of cross-sectional and time series data seem to confirm the distance of Italian households’ financial decisions from the rational choice predicted by the Markowitz model. In particular, we find that the housing market bubbles interact strongly with the stock market and financial institutions seem to be unable to advise investors suggesting optimal portfolio choices. The deep reason behind these facts may be the bounded education of investors, in particular the low financial literacy of Italian households.

Application of Performance Ratios in Portfolio Optimization

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Aleš Kresta

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The cornerstone of modern portfolio theory was established by pioneer work of Harry Markowitz. Based on his mean-variance framework, Sharpe formulated his well-known Sharpe ratio aiming to measure the performance of mutual funds. The contemporary development in computer’s computational power allowed to apply more complex performance ratios, which take into account also higher moments of return probability distribution. Although these ratios were proposed to help the investors to improve the results of portfolio optimization, we empirically demonstrated in our paper that this may not necessarily be true. On the historical dataset of DJIA components we empirically showed that both Sharpe ratio and MAD ratio outperformed Rachev ratio. However, for Rachev ratio we assumed only one level of parameters value. Different set-ups of parameters may provide different results and thus further analysis is certainly required.

Time-Consistent Strategies for a Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem

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Huiling Wu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available It remained prevalent in the past years to obtain the precommitment strategies for Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio optimization problems, but not much is known about their time-consistent strategies. This paper takes a step to investigate the time-consistent Nash equilibrium strategies for a multiperiod mean-variance portfolio selection problem. Under the assumption that the risk aversion is, respectively, a constant and a function of current wealth level, we obtain the explicit expressions for the time-consistent Nash equilibrium strategy and the equilibrium value function. Many interesting properties of the time-consistent results are identified through numerical sensitivity analysis and by comparing them with the classical pre-commitment solutions.

Windfall profit in portfolio diversification? An empirical analysis of the potential benefits of renewable energy investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruns, Frederik

2013-05-01

Modern Portfolio Theory is a theory which was introduced by Markowitz, and which suggests the building of a portfolio with assets that have low or, in the best case, negative correlation. In times of financial crises, however, the positive diversification effect of a portfolio can fail when Traditional Assets are highly correlated. Therefore, many investors search for Alternative Asset classes, such as Renewable Energies, that tend to perform independently from capital market performance. 'Windfall Profit in Portfolio Diversification?' discusses the potential role of Renewable Energy investments in an institutional investor's portfolio by applying the main concepts from Modern Portfolio Theory. Thereby, the empirical analysis uses a unique data set from one of the largest institutional investors in the field of Renewable Energies, including several wind and solar parks. The study received the Science Award 2012 of the German Alternative Investments Association ('Bundesverband Alternative Investments e.V.').

Applying Monte Carlo Concept and Linear Programming in Modern Portfolio Theory to Obtain Best Weighting Structure

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Tumpal Sihombing

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The world is entering the era of recession when the trend is bearish and market is not so favorable. The capital markets in every major country were experiencing great amount of loss and people suffered in their investment. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI has shown a great downturn for the past one year but the trend bearish year of the JCI. Therefore, rational investors should consider restructuring their portfolio to set bigger proportion in bonds and cash instead of stocks. Investors can apply modern portfolio theory by Harry Markowitz to find the optimum asset allocation for their portfolio. Higher return is always associated with higher risk. This study shows investors how to find out the lowest risk of a portfolio investment by providing them with several structures of portfolio weighting. By this way, investor can compare and make the decision based on risk-return consideration and opportunity cost as well. Keywords: Modern portfolio theory, Monte Carlo, linear programming

Effective Stock Selection and Portfolio Construction Within US, International, and Emerging Markets

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Bijan Beheshti

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the ex-post attributes of 120 simulated portfolios across the U.S., International, and Emerging Markets. We estimate expected returns using a given global stock selection model employing Global Equity Rating (GLER and Consensus Temporary Earnings Forecasting (CTEF signals. Our portfolios are constructed under the Markowitz optimization framework and constrained at various tracking error levels. Further, an alpha alignment factor is applied to aid in portfolio construction. As a result of our research, we present the reader with three key findings. First, GLER and CTEF signals employed as the primary inputs to security selection result in portfolios with superior risk adjusted returns relative to the Russell 3000, MSCI AC World ex. US, and MSCI Emerging Markets benchmarks which they are measured against. Second, expanding the investment universe outside the U.S. increases the opportunity set yielding higher risk adjusted performance. Third, the incorporation of an alpha alignment factor within the portfolio construction process improves risk forecasts resulting in ex-post tracking error aligning more closely to ex-ante, and ultimately improving information ratios.

Portfolio Diversification in the South-East European Equity Markets

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Zaimovic Azra

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Diversification potential enables investors to manage their risk and decrease risk exposure. Good diversification policy is a safety net that prevents a portfolio from losing its value. A well-diversified portfolio consists of different categories of property with low correlations, while highly correlated markets have the feature of low possibilities for diversification. The biggest riddle in the world of investments is to find the optimal portfolio within a set of available assets with limited capital. There are numerous studies and mathematical models that deal with portfolio investment strategies. These strategies take advantage of diversification by spreading risk over several financial assets. Modern portfolio theory seeks to find the optimal model with the best results. This paper tries to identify relationships between returns of companies traded in South-East European equity markets. A Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio optimization method is used to identify possibilities for diversification among these markets and world leading capital markets. This research also offers insight into to the level of integration of South-East European equity markets. Principal component analysis (PCA is used to determine components that describe the strong patterns and co-movements of the dataset. Finally, we combined MV efficient frontier and equity, which represent PCA components, to draw conclusions. Our findings show that PC analysis substantially simplifies asset selection process in portfolio management. The results of the paper have practical applications for portfolio investors.

Asset management using an extended Markowitz theorem

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Paria Karimi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Markowitz theorem is one of the most popular techniques for asset management. The method has been widely used to solve many applications, successfully. In this paper, we present a multi objective Markowitz model to determine asset allocation by considering cardinality constraints. The resulted model is an NP-Hard problem and the proposed study uses two metaheuristics, namely genetic algorithm (GA and particle swarm optimization (PSO to find efficient solutions. The proposed study has been applied on some data collected from Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2009-2011. The study considers four objectives including cash return, 12-month return, 36-month return and Lower Partial Moment (LPM. The results indicate that there was no statistical difference between the implementation of PSO and GA methods.

Comparative evaluation of fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms models for portfolio optimization

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Heidar Masoumi Soureh

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Selection of optimum methods which have appropriate speed and precision for planning and de-cision-making has always been a challenge for investors and managers. One the most important concerns for them is investment planning and optimization for acquisition of desirable wealth under controlled risk with the best return. This paper proposes a model based on Markowitz the-orem by considering the aforementioned limitations in order to help effective decisions-making for portfolio selection. Then, the model is investigated by fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms, for the optimization of the portfolio in selected active companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2012-2016 and the results of the above models are discussed. The results show that the two studied models had functional differences in portfolio optimization, its tools and the possibility of supplementing each other and their selection.

Risk and utility in portfolio optimization

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Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.

2003-06-01

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

The Formation of Optimal Portfolio of Mutual Shares Funds using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm

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Yandra Arkeman

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Investments in financial assets have become a trend in the globalization era, especially the investment in mutual fund shares. Investors who want to invest in stock mutual funds can set up an investment portfolio in order to generate a minimal risk and maximum return. In this study the authors used the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm Non-dominated Sorting II (MOGA NSGA-II technique with the Markowitz portfolio principle to find the best portfolio from several mutual funds. The data used are 10 company stock mutual funds with a period of 12 months, 24 months and 36 months. The genetic algorithm parameters used are crossover probability of 0.65, mutation probability of 0.05, Generation 400 and a population numbering 20 individuals. The study produced a combination of the best portfolios for the period of 24 months with a computing time of 63,289 seconds.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEAN-VARIANCE AND MEAN-CVAR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODELS

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Panna Miskolczi

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Everybody heard already that one should not expect high returns without high risk, or one should not expect safety without low returns. The goal of portfolio theory is to find the balance between maximizing the return and minimizing the risk. To do so we have to first understand and measure the risk. Naturally a good risk measure has to satisfy several properties - in theory and in practise. Markowitz suggested to use the variance as a risk measure in portfolio theory. This led to the so called mean-variance model - for which Markowitz received the Nobel Prize in 1990. The model has been criticized because it is well suited for elliptical distributions but it may lead to incorrect conclusions in the case of non-elliptical distributions. Since then many risk measures have been introduced, of which the Value at Risk (VaR is the most widely used in the recent years. Despite of the widespread use of the Value at Risk there are some fundamental problems with it. It does not satisfy the subadditivity property and it ignores the severity of losses in the far tail of the profit-and-loss (P&L distribution. Moreover, its non-convexity makes VaR impossible to use in optimization problems. To come over these issues the Expected Shortfall (ES as a coherent risk measure was developed. Expected Shortfall is also called Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR. Compared to Value at Risk, ES is more sensitive to the tail behaviour of the P&L distribution function. In the first part of the paper I state the definition of these three risk measures. In the second part I deal with my main question: What is happening if we replace the variance with the Expected Shortfall in the portfolio optimization process. Do we have different optimal portfolios as a solution? And thus, does the solution suggests to decide differently in the two cases? To answer to these questions I analyse seven Hungarian stock exchange companies. First I use the mean-variance portfolio optimization model

Model of Formation of the Enterprise Business Portfolio in the Context of Ensuring Strategic Flexibility

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Shatilova Olena V.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers urgent problems of enterprise management under conditions of external environment instability, studies problems of the enterprise strategic flexibility management. It shows that one of the efficient mechanisms of ensuring strategic flexibility is restructuring of the enterprise business portfolio in accordance with the change of the situation in the target market of enterprise functioning. The goal of the article is development of a model of formation of enterprise business portfolio in the context of ensuring strategic flexibility. The main method of optimisation of the enterprise business portfolio in the context of ensuring strategic flexibility is the use of modification of the Markowitz model of investment portfolio formation. The offered model of the enterprise business portfolio formation allows taking into account changes of external and internal environments and conducting portfolio restructuring in the event of the change of the enterprise target market situation. Prospects of further studies in this direction are detailed elaboration and formalisation of the organisational and economic mechanism of realisation of strategic flexibility at an enterprise.

Analysis of portfolio optimization with lot of stocks amount constraint: case study index LQ45

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Chin, Liem; Chendra, Erwinna; Sukmana, Agus

2018-01-01

To form an optimum portfolio (in the sense of minimizing risk and / or maximizing return), the commonly used model is the mean-variance model of Markowitz. However, there is no amount of lots of stocks constraint. And, retail investors in Indonesia cannot do short selling. So, in this study we will develop an existing model by adding an amount of lot of stocks and short-selling constraints to get the minimum risk of portfolio with and without any target return. We will analyse the stocks listed in the LQ45 index based on the stock market capitalization. To perform this analysis, we will use Solver that available in Microsoft Excel.

Testing the Market Model – A Case Study of Fondul Proprietatea (FP)

OpenAIRE

Sorin Claudiu Radu

2014-01-01

The financial theory related to the bond portfolio analysis was coined by Harry Markowitz, an authentic’ pioneer of the modern bond theory’, and his well-thought interpretation of the bond selection model may be found in his research papers “Portfolio Selection” (Markowitz M. Harry, 1952) and “Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments” (Markowitz M. Harry 1960). This paper is proposed to test the market model in the Romanian stock market, case of Property Fund.

Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

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Dong, Yijun

The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

Synthetic Analysis about Single-Criterion and Multi-Criterion Financial Assets Portfolio

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Leonardo Badea

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This paper as a synthetic analyzis based on the Markowitz and Sharpe models deals with the problem of portfolio trying to determine both the optimum proportion of titles and the influence of a considered macroeconomic factor over their level of efficiency and risk. The improvement of these models was made through the introduction of a new model, the APT model (Arbitrage Price Theory, as a development of the uni-factorial CAPM model, in other words, the above-mentioned model only constitutes a particular form of the APT model trying to establish a relationship between the individual efficiency of a title from the portfolio and several macroeconomic factors. Also, this model involves the identification of macroeconomic factors influencing the profitability of the titles and the determination of the influence of these factors individually, through the application of the APT model.

Synthetic Analysis about Single-Criterion and Multi-Criterion Financial Assets Portfolio

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Leonardo Badea

2006-08-01

Full Text Available This paper as a synthetic analyzis based on the Markowitz and Sharpe models deals with the problem of portfolio trying to determine both the optimum proportion of titles and the influence of a considered macroeconomic factor over their level of efficiency and risk. The improvement of these models was made through the introduction of a new model, the APT model (Arbitrage Price Theory, as a development of the uni-factorial CAPM model, in other words, the above-mentioned model only constitutes a particular form of the APT model trying to establish a relationship between the individual efficiency of a title from the portfolio and several macroeconomic factors. Also, this model involves the identification of macroeconomic factors influencing the profitability of the titles and the determination of the influence of these factors individually, through the application of the APT model.

Determining the Optimum Portfolio of Sharia Stocks Using an Approach of Shariah Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM

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Fakhri Husein

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Shariah Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM is a modification of the model Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. This research is quantitative descriptive study of theories of optimal portfolio analysis applied to trading stocks, especially in stocks Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling technique used was purposive sampling and obtained 26 shares. The analysis tool used is MatLab R2010a. The results of this study are not prove theMarkowitz portfolio theory. This is explained by the amount of Beta market (β_m a value beta below 1 indicates that the fluctuation of stocks returns do not follow the movement of market fluctuations. Investors are likely to want a high profit, the investors are advised to choose a second portfolio groups, with rate of 0.176722% and investors are likely to enjoy a substantial risk in the investment portfolio are advised to choose the first group with a great risk of 0.8501%.

Multivariate GARCH models and Black-Litterman approach for tracking error constrained portfolios: an empirical analysis

OpenAIRE

Giulio PALOMBA

2006-01-01

In a typical tactical asset allocation set up managers generally make their investment decisions by inserting private information in an optimisation mechanism used to beat a benchmark portfolio; in this context the sole approach a' la Markowitz (1959) does not use all the available information about expected excess return and especially it does not take two main factors into account: first, asset returns often show changes in volatility, and second, the manager's private information plays no ...

Reflection of the Cointegration Relation among the Stock Markets on the Portfolio Choices: An Empirical Application for Fragile Five Countries

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Gulfen Tuna

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the long-term relationship between each pair of the countries separate from those in the Stock Markets of Fragile Five Countries and determine the optimal portfolio options for each of the BIITS countries according to the pieces of evidence obtained. Thus, the reflection of the concertedness among financial markets to the optimal portfolio options has been studied. Accordingly, long term relationships between each pair of BIITS countries have been investigated with monthly price value between June 2006 and July 2015 by means of Maki Cointegration Test. Optimal portfolio options have been established according to the Markowitz Model considering the long-term relationships between the markets. The pieces of evidence obtained show that lower-risk portfolios than the ones in their own national markets can be established in BIITS countries by applying international diversification

A Relação entre o Risco e as Práticas de Governança Corporativa Diferenciada no Mercado Brasileiro de Ações: uma abordagem sob a égide da teoria dos portfólios de MarkowitzRisk Relation and the Corporative Governance Practice in the Brazilian Stock Market: an approach according to the portfolio theory by MarkowitzLa Relación entre el Riesgo y las Prácticas de Gobernanza Corporativa Diferenciada en el Mercado Brasileño de Acciones: un análisis bajo la égida de la teoría de los portafolios de Markowitz

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SILVA, Rhoger Fellipe Marinho da

2011-06-01

Full Text Available RESUMOEste estudo objetivou analisar se há uma relação entre o risco de uma carteira, considerada suficientemente diversificada no mercado brasileiro de ações, composta pelas empresas classificadas no IGC, em comparação à Carteira de Mercado. Para tanto, utilizou-se preliminarmente do proceder metodológico de pesquisa bibliográfico-documental de caráter exploratório e, posteriormente, do levantamento das carteiras teóricas do índice de ações com governança corporativa diferenciada da BM&FBOVESPA válidas para o primeiro, segundo e terceiro quadrimestres de 2009. E, com o auxílio da planilha eletrônica Excel, utilizando-se do modelo de Markowitz (1952 e da metodologia desenvolvida por Gonçalves Junior, Pamplona e Montevechi (2002, buscou-se encontrar as carteiras de variância mínima para cada quadrimestre, a fim de testar a hipótese de que há uma relação entre o risco dessas carteiras, consideradas suficientemente diversificadas no mercado brasileiro de ações (de acordo com os achados de Sanvicente e Bellato, 2004, compostas por empresas classificadas no IGC. Assim, os resultados indicaram que tais carteiras compostas pelos ativos do IGC, são superiores à carteira de mercado, uma vez que teriam seus riscos representados por cerca de 34%, 32% e 21% do risco do IBOVESPA de seu período correspondente, em níveis de retorno idênticos, ou seja, por meio da teoria de diversificação é possível obter uma relação inversa entre o risco e as boas práticas de governança corporativa. Adicionalmente, a carteira selecionada IGC domina a carteira do IGC e do IBOVESPA, respectivamente, utilizando-se o coeficiente de variação, ou seja, possui o menor risco contido por cada retorno adicional.ABSTRACTThis study examines whether there is a relationship between the risk of a portfolio that would be sufficiently diversified in the Brazilian stock market, made by companies classified in the IGC, in comparison with the Market

Perhitungan Value at Risk Pada Portfolio Optimal: Studi Perbandingan Saham Syariah dan Saham Konvensional

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Sri Astuti Heryanti

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to obtain empirical evidence about the difference between the level of risk when investing stocks in the Islamic and conventional by using Value at Risk (VaR. The object of research including consistent stock in the Jakarta Islamic Index and LQ45. The analytical method used in this research is quantitative analysis consisting of the establishment of the optimal portfolio by Markowitz method, calculation of VaR and testing the differences with Independent sample t-test. This study indicated that the value every stock can be reduced by diversifying through the establishment of an optimal portfolio. Based on the calculation Independent sample t-test, it is known that there is no difference between VaR of Islamic stocks and conventional stocks.

Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

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Ren, Fei; Lu, Ya-Nan; Li, Sai-Ping; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin; Qiu, Tian

2017-01-01

The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

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Fei Ren

Full Text Available The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

Analysis of the effectiveness of the variance and Downside Risk measures for formation of investment portfolios

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Mariúcha Nóbrega Bezerra

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the efficacy of variance and measures of downside risk for of formation of investment portfolios in the Brazilian stock market. Using the methodologies of Ang (1975, Markowitz et al. (1993, Ballestero (2005, Estrada (2008 and Cumova and Nawrocki (2011, sought to find what the best method to solve the problem of asymmetric and endogenous matrix and, inspired by the work of Markowitz (1952 and Lohre, Neumann and Winterfeldt (2010, intended to be seen which risk metric is most suitable for the realization of more efficient allocation of resources in the stock market in Brazil. The sample was composed of stocks of IBrX 50, from 2000 to 2013. The results indicated that when the semivariance was used as a measure of asymmetric risk, if the investor can use more refined models for solving the problem of asymmetric semivariance-cosemivariance matrix, the model of Cumova and Nawrocki (2011 will be more effective. Furthermore, from the Brazilian data, VaR had become more effective than variance and other measures of downside risk with respect to minimizing the risk of loss. Thus, taken the assumption that the investor has asymmetric preferences regarding risk, forming portfolios of stocks in the Brazilian market is more efficient when using criteria of minimizing downside risk than the traditional mean-variance approach.

Optimasi Portofolio Investasi Dengan Menggunakan Model Markowitz

OpenAIRE

Priyatna, Yayat; Sukono, F

2003-01-01

Permasalahan pokok dalam paper ini adalah memilih dua saham unggulan dan proporsi dana yang akan diinvestasikan dalam pembentukan suatu portofolio. Optimasi portofolio investasi di sini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model Markowitz. Dari empat saham unggulan versi LQ 45 yang dianalisis menunjukkan bahwa saham HM Sampurna dan Telkom memberikan hasil yang optimum dalam pembentukan portofolio investasi dengan proporsi dana berturut-turut sebesar 51% dan 49%.

Comparing Variance/Covariance and Historical Simulation in the Context of the Financial Crisis – Do Extreme Movements Have an Influence onto Portfolio Selection?

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Svend Reuse

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Portfolio theory and the basic ideas of Markowitz have been extended in the recent past by alternative risk models as historical simulation or even copula functions. The central question of this paper is if these approaches lead to different results compared to the classical variance/covariance approach. Therefore, empirical data of the last 10 years is analysed. Both approaches are compared in the special context of the financial crisis. The worst case optimization and the Value at Risk (VaR are defined in order to define the minimum risk portfolio before and after the financial crisis. The result is that the financial crisis has nearly no impact onto the portfolio, but the two approaches lead to different results.

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

Science.gov (United States)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah@Rozita

2014-06-01

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio.

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita [School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

2014-06-19

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio.

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita

2014-01-01

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio

Efficient Frontier - Comparing Different Volatility Estimators

OpenAIRE

Tea Poklepović; Zdravka Aljinović; Mario Matković

2015-01-01

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that ra...

Portfolio theory in the selection of oil investment projects Teoria de carteiras na seleção de projetos de investimento em petróleo

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Jalimar Guimarães Simplício

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this article is to compare investment project selection using the efficient frontier in the mean-variance space based on optimization models introduced by Markowitz (1952 with the project ranking method according to the profitability index (PI. The selection of real assets by companies did not incorporate the mean-variance optimization procedure in the same way the selection of financial assets in investment portfolios did. The process of selection and formation of portfolios of investment projects for the oil area of a company in the energy industry was analyzed. Project portfolios formed according to the usual company practice of ranking by their PI were compared with those that result from applying mean-variance optimization through Monte Carlo simulation, which allows the computation of mean returns, variances, and covariances for the set of projects considered. The inefficiency of project portfolios obtained by ranking according to the PI compared to those obtained by the method of Markowitz suggests that there are opportunities to improve the process of selecting the set of projects to be implemented by companies.O objetivo deste artigo é comparar a seleção de projetos de investimento segundo a fronteira eficiente no espaço média-variância com base em modelos de otimização introduzidos por Markowitz (1952 com o método do ordenamento de projetos segundo o índice de lucratividade (IL. A seleção de ativos reais pelas empresas não incorporou o procedimento de otimização de média-variância da mesma forma que na seleção de ativos financeiros para carteiras de investimento. O processo de seleção e formação de carteiras de projetos de investimento pela área de petróleo de uma empresa do setor de energia foi analisado. Carteiras de projetos constituídas de acordo com a prática usual da empresa de ordenamento pelo IL foram comparadas com as que resultariam da aplicação da otimização de m

Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves

OpenAIRE

Way, Rupert; Lafond, François; Farmer, J. Doyne; Lillo, Fabrizio; Panchenko, Valentyn

2017-01-01

This paper considers how to optimally allocate investments in a portfolio of competing technologies. We introduce a simple model representing the underlying trade-off - between investing enough effort in any one project to spur rapid progress, and diversifying effort over many projects simultaneously to hedge against failure. We use stochastic experience curves to model the idea that investing more in a technology reduces its unit costs, and we use a mean-variance objective function to unders...

A General Framework for Portfolio Theory—Part I: Theory and Various Models

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Stanislaus Maier-Paape

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two-dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz (1959 and the capital market pricing model Sharpe (1964, are special cases of our general framework when the risk measure is taken to be the standard deviation and the utility function is the identity mapping. Using our general framework, we also recover and extend the results in Rockafellar et al. (2006, which were already an extension of the capital market pricing model to allow for the use of more general deviation measures. This generalized capital asset pricing model also applies to e.g., when an approximation of the maximum drawdown is considered as a risk measure. Furthermore, the consideration of a general utility function allows for going beyond the “additive” performance measure to a “multiplicative” one of cumulative returns by using the log utility. As a result, the growth optimal portfolio theory Lintner (1965 and the leverage space portfolio theory Vince (2009 can also be understood and enhanced under our general framework. Thus, this general framework allows a unification of several important existing portfolio theories and goes far beyond. For simplicity of presentation, we phrase all for a finite underlying probability space and a one period market model, but generalizations to more complex structures are straightforward.

Application of portfolio analysis to the Dutch generating mix. Reference case and two renewables cases, year 2030, SE and GE scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Van Tilburg, X.

2006-02-01

This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030

Dynamics of market correlations: Taxonomy and portfolio analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Onnela, J.-P.; Chakraborti, A.; Kaski, K.; Kertész, J.; Kanto, A.

2003-11-01

The time dependence of the recently introduced minimum spanning tree description of correlations between stocks, called the “asset tree” has been studied in order to reflect the financial market taxonomy. The nodes of the tree are identified with stocks and the distance between them is a unique function of the corresponding element of the correlation matrix. By using the concept of a central vertex, chosen as the most strongly connected node of the tree, an important characteristic is defined by the mean occupation layer. During crashes, due to the strong global correlation in the market, the tree shrinks topologically, and this is shown by a low value of the mean occupation layer. The tree seems to have a scale-free structure where the scaling exponent of the degree distribution is different for “business as usual” and “crash” periods. The basic structure of the tree topology is very robust with respect to time. We also point out that the diversification aspect of portfolio optimization results in the fact that the assets of the classic Markowitz portfolio are always located on the outer leaves of the tree. Technical aspects such as the window size dependence of the investigated quantities are also discussed.

Dynamics of market correlations: taxonomy and portfolio analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Onnela, J-P; Chakraborti, A; Kaski, K; Kertész, J; Kanto, A

2003-11-01

The time dependence of the recently introduced minimum spanning tree description of correlations between stocks, called the "asset tree" has been studied in order to reflect the financial market taxonomy. The nodes of the tree are identified with stocks and the distance between them is a unique function of the corresponding element of the correlation matrix. By using the concept of a central vertex, chosen as the most strongly connected node of the tree, an important characteristic is defined by the mean occupation layer. During crashes, due to the strong global correlation in the market, the tree shrinks topologically, and this is shown by a low value of the mean occupation layer. The tree seems to have a scale-free structure where the scaling exponent of the degree distribution is different for "business as usual" and "crash" periods. The basic structure of the tree topology is very robust with respect to time. We also point out that the diversification aspect of portfolio optimization results in the fact that the assets of the classic Markowitz portfolio are always located on the outer leaves of the tree. Technical aspects such as the window size dependence of the investigated quantities are also discussed.

A fuzzy compromise programming approach for the Black-Litterman portfolio selection model

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Mohsen Gharakhani

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we examine advanced optimization approach for portfolio problem introduced by Black and Litterman to consider the shortcomings of Markowitz standard Mean-Variance optimization. Black and Litterman propose a new approach to estimate asset return. They present a way to incorporate the investor’s views into asset pricing process. Since the investor’s view about future asset return is always subjective and imprecise, we can represent it by using fuzzy numbers and the resulting model is multi-objective linear programming. Therefore, the proposed model is analyzed through fuzzy compromise programming approach using appropriate membership function. For this purpose, we introduce the fuzzy ideal solution concept based on investor preference and indifference relationships using canonical representation of proposed fuzzy numbers by means of their correspondingα-cuts. A real world numerical example is presented in which MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International Index is chosen as the target index. The results are reported for a portfolio consisting of the six national indices. The performance of the proposed models is compared using several financial criteria.

Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

2014-09-01

Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

The portfolio theory applied to small hydroelectric power plants; Teoria do portfolio aplicada a pequenas centrais hidreletricas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bastos, Paulo Roberto Ferreira de Moura

2002-07-01

The 'Portfolio Theory' has been largely employed on stock markets, aiming to improve the relation between risk and return. This theory identifies many possible investment combinations once it's associated with the idea that increasing investment diversification can lower risk. The objective is, thus identify the portfolio that offers the most efficient diversification of capital. The reforms on the energy sector in Brazil have made investments on both generation and commercialization of electric energy easier for medium sized investors. There have been economic incentives to the exploration of wind and bio-mass energy, and to the construction of small hydro-electric power plants (in Portuguese, PCH), as well as many legal and regulatory mechanisms pursuing the maintenance of elevate rates of participation of renewable source in the production of electrical energy in Brazil. Between these options, the PCH are a specially good opportunity taking account of its minimum environment impact, low operational costs and total technologic control. The decision concerning investment options has been based on standard economic analysis like 'Net Present Value', 'Payback Time' or 'Cost/Benefit Relations'. Other techniques such as scenario and sensitivity have been incorporated and, more recently, there has been a search for other methods consider the uncertainty of happenings within the horizon of study. This dissertation will analyse six possibilities of PCH with standard techniques. Of them, the four possibilities considered viable will constitute our examples for the application of Portfolio Theory techniques. Once the active portfolio is determined, the best option is identified using the 'mean-variance efficient' developed by Markowitz, concluding that the theory can give better support to the decision-making in future enterprises on the electric sector. After considering the optimal return/risk combinations, there was

The portfolio theory applied to small hydroelectric power plants; Teoria do portfolio aplicada a pequenas centrais hidreletricas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bastos, Paulo Roberto Ferreira de Moura

2002-07-01

The 'Portfolio Theory' has been largely employed on stock markets, aiming to improve the relation between risk and return. This theory identifies many possible investment combinations once it's associated with the idea that increasing investment diversification can lower risk. The objective is, thus identify the portfolio that offers the most efficient diversification of capital. The reforms on the energy sector in Brazil have made investments on both generation and commercialization of electric energy easier for medium sized investors. There have been economic incentives to the exploration of wind and bio-mass energy, and to the construction of small hydro-electric power plants (in Portuguese, PCH), as well as many legal and regulatory mechanisms pursuing the maintenance of elevate rates of participation of renewable source in the production of electrical energy in Brazil. Between these options, the PCH are a specially good opportunity taking account of its minimum environment impact, low operational costs and total technologic control. The decision concerning investment options has been based on standard economic analysis like 'Net Present Value', 'Payback Time' or 'Cost/Benefit Relations'. Other techniques such as scenario and sensitivity have been incorporated and, more recently, there has been a search for other methods consider the uncertainty of happenings within the horizon of study. This dissertation will analyse six possibilities of PCH with standard techniques. Of them, the four possibilities considered viable will constitute our examples for the application of Portfolio Theory techniques. Once the active portfolio is determined, the best option is identified using the 'mean-variance efficient' developed by Markowitz, concluding that the theory can give better support to the decision-making in future enterprises on the electric sector. After considering the optimal return/risk combinations, there was a change on the hierarchy concerning the best options

Optimization Stock Portfolio With Mean-Variance and Linear Programming: Case In Indonesia Stock Market

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Yen Sun

2010-05-01

Full Text Available It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%. As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor. Therefore, it is important to educate domestic investor to involve in the stock exchange. Investing in portfolio of stock is one of the best choices for risk-averse investor (such as Indonesia domestic investor since it offers lower risk for a given level of return. This paper studies the optimization of Indonesian stock portfolio. The data is the historical return of 10 stocks of LQ 45 for 5 time series (January 2004 – December 2008. It will be focus on selecting stocks into a portfolio, setting 10 of stock portfolios using mean variance method combining with the linear programming (solver. Furthermore, based on Efficient Frontier concept and Sharpe measurement, there will be one stock portfolio picked as an optimum Portfolio (Namely Portfolio G. Then, Performance of portfolio G will be evaluated by using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Measurement to show whether the return of Portfolio G exceeds the market return. This paper also illustrates how the stock composition of the Optimum Portfolio (G succeeds to predict the portfolio return in the future (5th January – 3rd April 2009. The result of the study observed that optimization portfolio using Mean-Variance (consistent with Markowitz theory combine with linear programming can be applied into Indonesia stock’s portfolio. All the measurements (Sharpe, Jensen, and Treynor show that the portfolio G is a superior portfolio. It is also been found that the composition (weights stocks of optimum portfolio (G can be used to

Linear and nonlinear market correlations: Characterizing financial crises and portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Haluszczynski, Alexander; Laut, Ingo; Modest, Heike; Räth, Christoph

2017-12-01

Pearson correlation and mutual information-based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of U.S. S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We show that both networks detect qualitative differences especially during (recent) turbulent market periods, thus indicating strongly fluctuating interconnections between the stocks of different companies in changing economic environments. A measure for the strength of nonlinear dependencies is derived using surrogate data and leads to interesting observations during periods of financial market crises. In contrast to the expectation that dependencies reduce mainly to linear correlations during crises, we show that (at least in the 2008 crisis) nonlinear effects are significantly increasing. It turns out that the concept of centrality within a network could potentially be used as some kind of an early warning indicator for abnormal market behavior as we demonstrate with the example of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Finally, we apply a Markowitz mean variance portfolio optimization and integrate the measure of nonlinear dependencies to scale the investment exposure. This leads to significant outperformance as compared to a fully invested portfolio.

Implementation of portfolio theory to the analysis of electricity generation in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esquivel E, J.; Ramirez S, J. R.; Palacios H, J. C.

2014-10-01

As part of the activities of economic analysis to the National Energy Strategy 2013-2027 of Mexico has been developed a computational platform to support decision-making based on the risk and performance in obtaining the optimum combination of technologies involved in the electricity generation. To this end, they consider five technologies: combined cycle, thermal coal, nuclear, hydro and wind. Each technology has been analyzed independently based on the total cost of generation level (given in dl s/KWh or dl s/MWh), leaning on documents as the Poise 2012-2026 and COPAR 2013. Subsequently by portfolio theory proposed by Markowitz, that combination of technologies that provide a greater benefit in the electricity generation is determined. In this study we consider two base work areas on which the proposed portfolios are reflected. The conformation of work areas is derived from the National Energy Strategy 2013-2027, considering a scenario with fossil technologies (combined cycle, thermal coal and nuclear) and other, making greater emphasis on the use of renewable technologies (combined cycle, hydro and wind). Finally, four portfolios are presented, each one with different percentages of ownership of technology in electricity generation, verifying the risk and performance of each combination. Of the analyzed portfolios, one corresponds to the mix of technologies which are currently in the country. The remaining derive the percentage share of combined-cycle technology, by subtracting 10% of their contribution and distributing it in three ways: by increasing the 10% share of nuclear technology; increasing 10% contribution of thermal coal technology and finally, extending the 5% of the electricity generation of nuclear technology and 5% increase in the electricity generation by wind technology. (Author)

Portfolio optimization using a hybrid of fuzzy ANP, VIKOR and TOPSIS

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Reza Raei

2012-10-01

Full Text Available One of the primary questions in asset management is to find good combinations of different assets and this has been an interesting area of research for over half a century. The proposed model of this paper uses decision makers' feedbacks based on multiple criteria decision making technique to find an appropriate portfolio. We first select some important financial criteria and then using decision makers' opinions and by implementation of some fuzzy network analysis we find appropriate weights of the asset. The proposed model uses two multiple criteria techniques namely TOPSIS and VIKOR and the model is examined for some real-world data from Tehran Stock Exchange. The results of the implementation of the proposed model have been examined against Markowitz traditional model. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper performs reasonably well compared with alternative method.

Decision Utility Theory: Back to von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Markowitz

OpenAIRE

Kontek, Krzysztof

2010-01-01

Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...

Estimated correlation matrices and portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Pafka, Szilárd; Kondor, Imre

2004-11-01

Correlations of returns on various assets play a central role in financial theory and also in many practical applications. From a theoretical point of view, the main interest lies in the proper description of the structure and dynamics of correlations, whereas for the practitioner the emphasis is on the ability of the models to provide adequate inputs for the numerous portfolio and risk management procedures used in the financial industry. The theory of portfolios, initiated by Markowitz, has suffered from the “curse of dimensions” from the very outset. Over the past decades a large number of different techniques have been developed to tackle this problem and reduce the effective dimension of large bank portfolios, but the efficiency and reliability of these procedures are extremely hard to assess or compare. In this paper, we propose a model (simulation)-based approach which can be used for the systematical testing of all these dimensional reduction techniques. To illustrate the usefulness of our framework, we develop several toy models that display some of the main characteristic features of empirical correlations and generate artificial time series from them. Then, we regard these time series as empirical data and reconstruct the corresponding correlation matrices which will inevitably contain a certain amount of noise, due to the finiteness of the time series. Next, we apply several correlation matrix estimators and dimension reduction techniques introduced in the literature and/or applied in practice. As in our artificial world the only source of error is the finite length of the time series and, in addition, the “true” model, hence also the “true” correlation matrix, are precisely known, therefore in sharp contrast with empirical studies, we can precisely compare the performance of the various noise reduction techniques. One of our recurrent observations is that the recently introduced filtering technique based on random matrix theory performs

Análise da formação de carteiras de investimentos: uma aplicação no mercado acionário brasileiro

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Knebel Baggio, Daniel

2009-06-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo é verificar a capacidade dos modelos financeiros teóricos de gestão de carteiras, em subsidiar a obtenção de retornos anormais no mercado acionário brasileiro. Entre os modelos que se podem citar: o modelo de Gestão de Carteiras de Markowitz (1952, o modelo CAPM de Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 e Black (1972. Os resultados comprovam que os dois modelos testados conseguiram gerar rentabilidades anormais, se comparadas com o IBOVESPA no mesmo período e com uma variância inferior. O Índice de Sharpe (1966 apontou a carteira de Markowitz como a que obteve a melhor performance.Our objective is to assess the ability of theoretical models of financial portfolio management, in support to obtain abnormal returns in the Brazilian equity market. Among the models that may be cited: the model of portfolio management of Markowitz (1952, the CAPM of Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Black (1972. The results show that the two models tested successfully generate abnormal returns compared to the IBOVESPA in the same period and a lower variance. The index of Sharpe (1966 identified the portfolio of Markowitz as that achieved the best performance.

Аpplication of markowitz portfolios based on currency baskets to commodity trade

OpenAIRE

Duda, T.; Augustynek, А.

2012-01-01

Розглянуто оптимальну структуру кошика валют для мінімізації ризиків торговельних операцій. Проаналізовано принципи побудови оптимального кошика валют, розроблено засадні положення оптимального портфеля Марковіца. Надано пропозиції щодо урахування периферійних валют у структурі платіжного кошика. The article proposes an application of currency basket payments together with Markovitz portfolio idea, to reduce a foreword transactions risk in commodity trade. It follows the line of earlier pa...

Tobin’s Separation Theorem: Information from the Colombian Stock Market for the First Half of 2008 El teorema de la separación de Tobin: información del primer semestre de 2008 del mercado accionario colombiano

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José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper shows a special situation where a portfolio created based on Tobin’s separation theorem does not match the Markowitz efficient set. Next a review of Markowitz´s portfolio selection theory is offered, followed by a review of Tobin’s separation theorem. Next, these models are used as tools for the individual investor with data on the Colombian stock market of the first half of 2008. Finally, the conclusions are shown. It is important to emphasize that the objective of this paper is not to make predictions upon expected returns, variances and covariances of these returns, nor to suggest an optimal portfolio for an investor with a particular utility function, but to expose a concrete scenario in which Tobin´s theorem leads to a portfolio located outside Markowitz´s efficient set.El artículo muestra una situación especial en donde el portafolio surgido del teorema de la separación de Tobin no se encuentra en la frontera eficiente de Markowitz. El desarrollo del mismo inicia con una revisión del modelo de selección de carteras de Harry Markowitz seguido del teorema de la separación de Tobin. A continuación, se hace uso de los modelos como herramientas para el inversionista individual, con datos sobre el mercado accionario colombiano del primer semestre de 2008. Finalmente se muestran las conclusiones. Es importante enfatizar que el objetivo del artículo no es hacer predicciones sobre los rendimientos esperados, varianzas o covarianzas de los mismos rendimientos, ni sugerir un portafolio óptimo para un inversionista con una función de utilidad particular, sino mostrar un escenario concreto en el que el teorema de la separación de Tobin conlleva a un portafolio ubicado por fuera de la frontera eficiente.

The Use of Neural Network and Portfolio Analysis in Forecasting Share Prices at the Stock Exchange

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Przemyslaw Stochel

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents the use of neural networks in decision making process on the capital market. The author tried to show the efficiency of established solution in Polish reality which features different conditions in comparison with the markets of higher developed countries. The aim of the paper was to prove that neural networks are flexible tools which on one hand might be adjusted to investor's requirements and on the other, can reduce equirements to his experience. The article is based on the author's own research carried out by modelling neural network operation with a simulation program. The established solutions are input which employs stocks portfolio computed on the basis of Markowitz portfolio theory and Sharpe's model. According to the established propositions, the portfolio created in such a way is modified by neutral network in order to optimise a criterion which maximises the income of such a modified portfolio. A detailed genesis of the established input vector and network structure are presented. It allows the reader to carry out his own research and create his own attitude towards applied values. The research results based on a real stock market database with the use of one-output networks predicting thc price of a single company - Agros as well as networks predicting the desirable structure of the whole portfolio are presented. The effect of the network structure leaming parameters, input vector (not only as to the input quantity but also as to period of time they were collected was examined. The dependence between the factors mentioned above such as input vector and network structure were discussed. lt seems that the presented paper has proved that some not widely spread methods with neural networks can become at competitive tool to optimisation methods.

Emergence of Commodity Derivatives as Defensive Instrument in Portfolio Risk Hedging: A Case of Indian Commodity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singhal Shelly

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically examines whether commodity derivatives can be used as an alternative investment asset in India where commodity markets are at emerging state and provides the same diversification benefit as they provide in developed commodity markets. In India only commodity futures are prevalent so various commodity indices representing various sectors has been used in the study. Diversification aspect of commodity derivatives has been tested initially by using correlation analysis. Compounded Daily Growth rate and Relative Standard deviation has been used as a measure of calculating risk and return of daily data of SENSEX, BOND and four Commodity Indices (MCX Comdex, MCX AGRI, MCX Metal, MCX Energy. Markowitz Efficient Frontier theory has been used to calculate portfolio risk return and Sharpe risk adjusted ratio has been used to evaluate the various portfolios. Optimal portfolio has been obtained for the combination of equity, bond and commodity and overall results of the study indicate that an investor who is risk averse will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Energy whereas an investor who gets utility by taking more risk for more returns will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Metal. Investor having inclination towards moderate risk return would tend to invest in MCX AGRI along with SENSEX and BOND.

MENENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL PADA PASAR SAHAM YANG BERGERAK DENGAN MODEL GERAK BROWN GEOMETRI MULTIDIMENSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RISKA YUNITA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Model of stock price movements that follow stochastic process can be formulated in Stochastic Diferential Equation (SDE. The exact solution of SDE model is called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM model. Determination the optimal portfolio of three asset that follows Multidimensional GBM model is to be carried out in this research.Multidimensional GBM model represents stock price in the future is affected by three parameter, there are expectation of stock return, risk stock, and correlation between stock return. Therefore, theory of portfolio Markowitz is used on formation of optimal portfolio. Portfolio Markowitz formulates three of same parameter that is calculated on Multidimensional GBM model. The result of this research are optimal portfolio reaches with the proportion of fund are 39,38% for stock BBCA, 59,82% for stock ICBP, and 0,80% for stock INTP. This proportion of fund represents value of parameters that is calculated on modelling stock price.

Optimalizace portfolia začínajícího investora

OpenAIRE

Plaček, Vilém

2013-01-01

The goal of this bachelor thesis is to help an investor with assembling portfolio investment. Data are acquired using expert approach. Firstly I introduce issues of portfolio characteristics, investment instruments and portfolio theory. Portfolio theory is based on work of H. Markowitz. Introducing operation research is very important for assembling optimal portfolio and it uses mathematical models for achieving optimal solution. Firstly it is necessary to compile mathematical model based on ...

Financial Giffen Goods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Rolf; Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani

2008-01-01

In the basic Markowitz and Merton models, a stock’s weight in efficient portfolios goes up if its expected rate of return goes up. Put differently, there are no financial Giffen goods. By an example from mortgage choice we illustrate that for more complicated portfolio problems Giffen effects do...

Research on regularized mean-variance portfolio selection strategy with modified Roy safety-first principle.

Science.gov (United States)

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yan, Dawen; Yu, Bo; Wei, Xinyuan

2016-01-01

We propose a consolidated risk measure based on variance and the safety-first principle in a mean-risk portfolio optimization framework. The safety-first principle to financial portfolio selection strategy is modified and improved. Our proposed models are subjected to norm regularization to seek near-optimal stable and sparse portfolios. We compare the cumulative wealth of our preferred proposed model to a benchmark, S&P 500 index for the same period. Our proposed portfolio strategies have better out-of-sample performance than the selected alternative portfolio rules in literature and control the downside risk of the portfolio returns.

Universal portfolios in stochastic portfolio theory

OpenAIRE

Wong, Ting-Kam Leonard

2015-01-01

Consider a family of portfolio strategies with the aim of achieving the asymptotic growth rate of the best one. The idea behind Cover's universal portfolio is to build a wealth-weighted average which can be viewed as a buy-and-hold portfolio of portfolios. When an optimal portfolio exists, the wealth-weighted average converges to it by concentration of wealth. Working under a discrete time and pathwise setup, we show under suitable conditions that the distribution of wealth in the family sati...

Applying Financial Portfolio Analysis to Government Program Portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

2007-06-01

himself points out, “The Rational Man, like the unicorn , does not exist” (Markowitz, 1959). The various investor assumptions presented above break down...originally envisioned benefits quickly grow (Levine, 2005). As a recent Government Accountability Office report notes, the sheer size of IT spending in the...shows no change in EAC for the first three quarters and a decrease in the fourth quarter- although the SV and CV shrink and grow during the same period

The impact of liberalization on the scope of efficiency improvement in electricity-generating portfolios for the United States and Switzerland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, B.; Zweifel, P. [Socioeconomic Institute, Zurich (Switzerland)

2008-09-15

In this study, Markowitz mean-variance portfolio theory is applied to electricity-generating technologies of the United States and Switzerland. Both an investor (focused on changes in return) and a current user (focused on return in levels) view are adopted to determine efficient frontiers of electricity generation technologies in terms of expected return and risk as of 2003. Since shocks in generation costs per kWh (the inverse of returns) are correlated, Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) is used to filter out the systematic components of the covariance matrix. Results suggest that risk-averse investors and risk-neutral current users in the United States are considerably closer to their efficiency frontier than their Swiss counterparts. This may be due to earlier and more thorough deregulation of electricity markets in the United States. (orig.)

Ein Experiment zum Anlegerverhalten

OpenAIRE

Weber, Martin; Camerer, Colin F.

1992-01-01

Portfolio selection is one important example of decision making under risk. We empirically investigate how decision makers behave when making these decisions, As a baseline we compare this intuitive decision making with the optimal decision making described by Markowitz' portfolio theory. Our results show that intuitive behavior is quite different from optimal behavior. Especially, subjects did not hold the optimal risky portfolio and they trade much more than predicted by portfol...

A Monte Carlo simulation technique to determine the optimal portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Ghodrati

2014-03-01

Full Text Available During the past few years, there have been several studies for portfolio management. One of the primary concerns on any stock market is to detect the risk associated with various assets. One of the recognized methods in order to measure, to forecast, and to manage the existing risk is associated with Value at Risk (VaR, which draws much attention by financial institutions in recent years. VaR is a method for recognizing and evaluating of risk, which uses the standard statistical techniques and the method has been used in other fields, increasingly. The present study has measured the value at risk of 26 companies from chemical industry in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2009-2011 using the simulation technique of Monte Carlo with 95% confidence level. The used variability in the present study has been the daily return resulted from the stock daily price change. Moreover, the weight of optimal investment has been determined using a hybrid model called Markowitz and Winker model in each determined stocks. The results showed that the maximum loss would not exceed from 1259432 Rials at 95% confidence level in future day.

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Zuwei

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuwei Yu

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

ANALYSING EFFICIENCY OF AGGRESSIVE ETF-COMPOSED PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Zaviyalov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article investigates investment characteristics of Exchange Traded Funds, a unique category of mutual funds which can be traded like any common equity on any stock exchange through authorized broker companies. One can buy and sell ETFs during the entire trading session, one can open short positions using ETFs and trade on margin. ETF price is determined by supply and demand and due to arbitrage, prices are very close to net asset values (NAV. ETFs attract both individual and institutional investors because they combine the benefits of open-end and closed-end funds. The article explores the results of statistical research to find a principal opportunity to implement an "aggressive" ETF-composed portfolio strategy which can secure stable above-market returns. To put it otherwise, the research aims to test the market efficiency hypothesis in the sector of ETF-composed portfolios. The research methodology centers on statistically testing the null hypothesis whether the average S&P500 return and each of the ETF-composed portfolio strategies average returns are equal to zero. To test such a hypothesis one should perform t-tests with several significance levels. If the null hypothesis is rejected on a certain significance level, this would mean that the average return of the portfolio strategy is significantly different from the average return of the S&P500 index. Based on the results of the t-tests, one can conclude whether the above-mentioned market segment is inefficient or partially inefficient, which would mean one can find an "aggressive"strategy to secure stable above-market returns.

Extension of portfolio theory application to energy planning problem – The Italian case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnesano, M.; Carlucci, A.P.; Laforgia, D.

2012-01-01

Energy procurement is a necessity which needs a deep study of both the demand and the generation sources, referred to consumers territorial localization. The study presented in this paper extends and consolidate the Shimon Awerbuch’s study on portfolio theory applied to the energy planning, in order to define a broad generating mix which optimizes one or more objective functions defined for a determined contest. For this purpose the computation model was specialized in energy generation problem and extended with the addition of new cost-risk settings, like renewable energy availability, and Black–Litterman model, which extends Markowitz theory. Energy planning was then contextualized to the territory: the introduction of geographic and climatic features allows to plan energy infrastructures on both global and local (regional, provincial, municipal) scale. The result is an efficient decision making tool to drive the investment on typical energy policy assets. In general the tool allows to analyze several scenarios in support of renewable energy sources, environmental sustainability, costs and risks reduction. In this paper the model was applied to the energy generation in Italy, and the analysis was done: on the actual energy mix; assuming the use of nuclear technology; assuming the verisimilar improvement of several technologies in the future. -- Highlights: ► Extension and consolidation of Shimon Awerbuch’s studies. ► Introduction of aspects connected to realization and utilization of power plants. ► Application of the model on a national, provincial, municipal scale. ► Modification of Energy Portfolio based on subjective previsions (Black–Litterman).

Diversifikace portfolia

OpenAIRE

ŠÍP, Martin

2016-01-01

The goal of this bachelor thesis is to show how the choice of stocks impacts the portfolio diversification in relation to risk and return. The risk was calculated as standard deviation and historical return rate was considered. The theoretical part explains basic terms related with portfolio diversification, Markowitz model, capital stock and most important factors that lead to the optimal portfolio creation such as return, risk and covariance. The practical part explains in detail, how to cr...

Macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility: A case of South Asian countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yahya Waqas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Macroeconomic factors play a pivotal role in attracting foreign investment in the country. This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility in South Asian countries. The monthly data is collected for the period ranging from 2000 to 2012 for four Asian countries i.e. China, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka because monthly data is ideal for measuring portfolio investment volatility. For measuring volatility in foreign portfolio investment, GARCH (1,1 is used because shocks are responded quickly by this model. The results reveal that there exists significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility. Thus, less volatility in international portfolio flows is associated with high interest rate, currency depreciation, foreign direct investment, lower inflation, and higher GDP growth rate of the host country. Thus findings of this study suggest that foreign portfolio investors focus on stable macroeconomic environment of country.

MARKOWITZ MODEL DALAM PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL (STUDI KASUS PADA JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irni Yunita

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan pemilihan portofolio optimal menggunakan model Markowitz. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dari tahun 2013 - 2018. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 29 saham yang terdapat dalam Jakarta Islamic Index tahun 2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 10 saham yang termasuk ke dalam portofolio optimal yaitu antara lain AKRA (3.4%, ADRO (3.3%, ICBP (4.7%, INCO (2.6%, MYRX (13.6%, PTPP (4.9%, PWON (11.3%, TPIA (1%, UNTR (15.7% dan UNVR (39.5%. Rata rata tingkat pengembalian portofolio adalah sebesar 1.22 % dan resiko portofolio adalah sebesar 0.0312, resiko tersebut di bawah resiko dari masing-masing saham individual pembentuk portofolio optimal.

Analysing Efficiency Of Aggressive ETF-сomposed Portfolio Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Zaviyalov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article investigates investment characteristics of Exchange Traded Funds, a unique category of mutual funds which can be traded like any common equity on any stock exchange through authorized broker companies. One can buy and sell ETFs during the entire trading session, one can open short positions using ETFs and trade on margin. ETF price is determined by supply and demand and due to arbitrage, prices are very close to net asset values (NAV. ETFs attract both individual and institutional investors because they combine the benefits of open-end and closed-end funds. The article explores the results of statistical research to find a principal opportunity to implement an "aggressive" ETF-composed portfolio strategy which can secure stable above-market returns. To put it otherwise, the research aims to test the market efficiency hypothesis in the sector of ETF-composed portfolios. The research methodology centers on statistically testing the null hypothesis whether the average S&P500 return and each of the ETF-composed portfolio strategies average returns are equal to zero. To test such a hypothesis one should perform t-tests with several significance levels. If the null hypothesis is rejected on a certain significance level, this would mean that the average return of the portfolio strategy is significantly different from the average return of the S&P500 index. Based on the results of the t-tests, one can conclude whether the above-mentioned market segment is inefficient or partially inefficient, which would mean one can find an "aggressive"strategy to secure stable above-market returns.

Big Data Challenges of High-Dimensional Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection and a Remedy.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Mei Choi; Pun, Chi Seng; Wong, Hoi Ying

2017-08-01

Investors interested in the global financial market must analyze financial securities internationally. Making an optimal global investment decision involves processing a huge amount of data for a high-dimensional portfolio. This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean-variance optimal portfolios: continuous-time precommitment and constant-rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large. The crux of the problem is the estimation error accumulated from the huge dimension of stock data. We then propose a linear programming optimal (LPO) portfolio framework, which applies a constrained ℓ 1 minimization to the theoretical optimal control to mitigate the risk associated with the dimensionality issue. The resulting portfolio becomes a sparse portfolio that selects stocks with a data-driven procedure and hence offers a stable mean-variance portfolio in practice. When the number of observations becomes large, the LPO portfolio converges to the oracle optimal portfolio, which is free of estimation error, even though the number of stocks grows faster than the number of observations. Our numerical and empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

OpenAIRE

Pei Pei

2010-01-01

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

Portfolio and diversity analysis of energy technologies using full-spectrum risk measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Awerbuch, S.; Stirling, A.C. [Science and Technology Policy Research SPRU, University of Sussex, Brighton, East Sussex (United Kingdom)

2005-01-01

Energy diversity and security have been evaluated using the multi-criteria diversity analysis (MDA) of A. C. Stirling as well as more classical Markowitz mean-variance portfolio (MVP) theory. Each of these approaches is capable of producing an efficient frontier that shows optimal generating portfolio mixes, those that maximize performance (i.e. minimize cost) while minimizing risk or uncertainty (i.e. maximizing diversity). MDA covers the full-spectrum of uncertainty, reaching into areas where little is known about the range of possible outcomes, let alone their probabilities. However, MDA does not exploit statistical information that is available in certain parts of the risk-spectrum where historic means, variances and co-variances of outcomes are known and can be used to make inferences about the future. MVP operates precisely in this space. However, like other capital market models, its prescriptive value rests on the idea that the past is the best guide to the future. As such MVP can be blind to unforeseen events that create future structural change. Used in isolation, therefore, neither model offers a fully satisfying result. An MVP analysis of energy technologies tells us how to create generating portfolios with minimum cost and risk (cost-variance), assuming historic ranges predict the future well enough. If policy makers are confident that past expected values, ranges and variances will continue, then the solutions are fine. But what about so-called unknown risks? Possible future events that may produce outcomes with unknown consequences? This is where MDA becomes a potentially powerful tool. This project seeks to merge the two approaches and to map the space between optimal MVP and MDA solutions using a combined MVP+MDA optimization and weighting scheme. Placing 100% of the emphasis on MVP, for example, produces results based purely on historical trends. These may serve for short planning horizons. On the other hand, giving MDA a 100% weighting produces

Customer portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clarke, Ann Højbjerg; Freytag, Per Vagn; Zolkiewski, Judith

2017-01-01

gives managers a tool to help to cope with the dynamic aspects of the customer portfolio. Recognition of the importance of communication to the process, the development of trust and the role of legitimacy also provides areas that managers can focus upon in their relationship management processes......Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extend the discussion about customer portfolios beyond simple identification of models and how they can be used for balanced resource allocation to a discussion about how portfolios should take into account views from relationship partners and how they should...... that helps improve the understanding of how customer portfolio models can actually be applied from a relational perspective. Findings The key aspects of the conceptual framework relate to how alignment of the relationships in the portfolio is achieved. Critical to this are the interaction spaces...

77 FR 55903 - Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-11

... Vol. 77 Tuesday, No. 176 September 11, 2012 Part II Commodity Futures Trading Commission 17 CFR Part 23 Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship... FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 23 RIN 3038-AC96 Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio...

Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-09-01

Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

Implementation of portfolio theory to the analysis of electricity generation in Mexico; Implementacion de la teoria del portafolio para el analisis de la generacion de energia electrica en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Esquivel E, J.; Ramirez S, J. R.; Palacios H, J. C., E-mail: jaime.esquivel@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

2014-10-15

As part of the activities of economic analysis to the National Energy Strategy 2013-2027 of Mexico has been developed a computational platform to support decision-making based on the risk and performance in obtaining the optimum combination of technologies involved in the electricity generation. To this end, they consider five technologies: combined cycle, thermal coal, nuclear, hydro and wind. Each technology has been analyzed independently based on the total cost of generation level (given in dl s/KWh or dl s/MWh), leaning on documents as the Poise 2012-2026 and COPAR 2013. Subsequently by portfolio theory proposed by Markowitz, that combination of technologies that provide a greater benefit in the electricity generation is determined. In this study we consider two base work areas on which the proposed portfolios are reflected. The conformation of work areas is derived from the National Energy Strategy 2013-2027, considering a scenario with fossil technologies (combined cycle, thermal coal and nuclear) and other, making greater emphasis on the use of renewable technologies (combined cycle, hydro and wind). Finally, four portfolios are presented, each one with different percentages of ownership of technology in electricity generation, verifying the risk and performance of each combination. Of the analyzed portfolios, one corresponds to the mix of technologies which are currently in the country. The remaining derive the percentage share of combined-cycle technology, by subtracting 10% of their contribution and distributing it in three ways: by increasing the 10% share of nuclear technology; increasing 10% contribution of thermal coal technology and finally, extending the 5% of the electricity generation of nuclear technology and 5% increase in the electricity generation by wind technology. (Author)

Regularizing portfolio optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Still, Susanne; Kondor, Imre

2010-01-01

The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability due to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting, which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification 'pressure'. This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade off between the two, depending on the size of the available dataset.

Regularizing portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Still, Susanne; Kondor, Imre

2010-07-01

The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability due to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting, which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification 'pressure'. This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade off between the two, depending on the size of the available dataset.

Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

2010-01-01

This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO 2 -emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO 2 -emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.

Hedging with stock index futures: downside risk versus the variance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, F.; Nat, van der M.

1995-01-01

In this paper we investigate hedging a stock portfolio with stock index futures.Instead of defining the hedge ratio as the minimum variance hedge ratio, we considerseveral measures of downside risk: the semivariance according to Markowitz [ 19591 andthe various lower partial moments according to

The Impact of Transaction Costs on Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in Portfolio Optimization

OpenAIRE

B. Marasović; S. Pivac; S. V. Vukasović

2015-01-01

Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the pr...

Comparison of Portfolio Selection and Performance: Shari’ah-Compliant and Socially Responsible Investment Portfolios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet Asutay

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This study examines the effect of Islamic screening criteria on Shari’ah-compliant portfolio selection and performance compared to Socially Responsible Investment (SRI portfolio. Each portfolio constructed from 15 stocks based on FTSE 100 using data from year 1997. Mean-variance portfolio optimization is employed with some financial ratios added as constraints for the Shari’ah portfolio. Annual expected return of each portfolio from 2008 to 2013 is used to calculate Sharpe’s ratio, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha as the performance measurement tools. Macroeconomic variables are assessed using ordinary least square to examine whether they influence the portfolios’ expected returns or not. The result finds that Shari’ah portfolio has a better performance than SRI from year 2008 to 2010 shown by higher value of the measurement tools. However, from 2011 to 2013, SRI portfolio has better performance than Shari’ah portfolio. 

Concurrent credit portfolio losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Sicking, Joachim; Guhr, Thomas; Schäfer, Rudi

2018-01-01

We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector. JEL codes: C32, F34, G21, G32, H81.

78 FR 21045 - Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-09

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 23 RIN 3038-AC96 Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship Documentation Requirements for Swap Dealers... CFTC published final rules setting forth requirements for swap confirmation, portfolio reconciliation...

Portfolio Risk of International Diversification of Kosovo Pension Fund: A Historical Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florin Aliu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Finance do not stand on static variables like exact sciences, they are changeable and influenced from human actions. The question where to invest funds, is a crucial task for financial managers. The study aimed at assessing the portfolio risk of different asset managers of the Kosovo Pension and Saving Trust. In general, the assessment has been categorized in two historical perspectives. The first phase is an assessment of the portfolio risk of the fund from 2003 to 2009 and the second phase is from 2003 to 2013. In general, portfolio risk in the second stage has shown a reduction as compared to the first stage. However, the return side shows also a reduction in the second phase than the first one. The overall risk of Kosovo Pension and Saving Trust has been in accepted range. Majority of money have been invested in stocks which automatically exposes huge risk on KPST portfolio, since it is proven that financial markets are not stable and they are prone to asset bubbles.

Comprehensive Education Portfolio with a Career Focus

Science.gov (United States)

Kruger, Evonne J.; Holtzman, Diane M.; Dagavarian, Debra A.

2013-01-01

There are many types of student portfolios used within academia: the prior learning portfolio, credentialing portfolio, developmental portfolio, capstone portfolio, individual course portfolio, and the comprehensive education portfolio. The comprehensive education portfolio (CEP), as used by the authors, is a student portfolio, developed over…

Academic portfolio in the digital era: organizing and maintaining a portfolio using reference managers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhargava, Puneet; Patel, Vatsal B; Iyer, Ramesh S; Moshiri, Mariam; Robinson, Tracy J; Lall, Chandana; Heller, Matthew T

2015-02-01

The academic portfolio has become an integral part of the promotions process. Creating and maintaining an academic portfolio in paper-based or web-based formats can be a cumbersome and time-consuming task. In this article, we describe an alternative way to efficiently organize an academic portfolio using a reference manager software, and discuss some of the afforded advantages. The reference manager software Papers (Mekentosj, Amsterdam, The Netherlands) was used to create an academic portfolio. The article outlines the key steps in creating and maintaining a digital academic portfolio. Using reference manager software (Papers), we created an academic portfolio that allows the user to digitally organize clinical, teaching, and research accomplishments in an indexed library enabling efficient updating, rapid retrieval, and easy sharing. To our knowledge, this is the first digital portfolio of its kind.

Activity diversification and performance of Islamic banks in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

CHATTI, Mohamed Ali; KABLAN, Sandrine; YOUSFI, Ouidad

2010-01-01

The current paper analyzes the performance and the choice of portfolio in Islamic banks. We consider a sample of 8 Malaysian universal Islamic banks between 2004 and 2008. We use the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) as an indicator of the degree of diversification. The performance of the banks is measured by the return on assets ratio (ROA) and the Risk Adjusted Return On Capital ratio (RAROC). Finally, we use the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of Markowitz to define the efficient frontier and...

Switching portfolios.

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, Y

1997-08-01

A constant rebalanced portfolio is an asset allocation algorithm which keeps the same distribution of wealth among a set of assets along a period of time. Recently, there has been work on on-line portfolio selection algorithms which are competitive with the best constant rebalanced portfolio determined in hindsight (Cover, 1991; Helmbold et al., 1996; Cover and Ordentlich, 1996). By their nature, these algorithms employ the assumption that high returns can be achieved using a fixed asset allocation strategy. However, stock markets are far from being stationary and in many cases the wealth achieved by a constant rebalanced portfolio is much smaller than the wealth achieved by an ad hoc investment strategy that adapts to changes in the market. In this paper we present an efficient portfolio selection algorithm that is able to track a changing market. We also describe a simple extension of the algorithm for the case of a general transaction cost, including the transactions cost models recently investigated in (Blum and Kalai, 1997). We provide a simple analysis of the competitiveness of the algorithm and check its performance on real stock data from the New York Stock Exchange accumulated during a 22-year period. On this data, our algorithm outperforms all the algorithms referenced above, with and without transaction costs.

Portfolio langagier en francais (Language Portfolios in French).

Science.gov (United States)

Laplante, Bernard; Christiansen, Helen

2001-01-01

Suggests that first-year college students learning French should create a language portfolio that contains documents that illustrate what they have learned in French, along with a brief statement of what linguistic skill the document demonstrates. The goal of the portfolio is to make students more aware of their own learning, their strengths, and…

Do portfolios have a future?

Science.gov (United States)

Driessen, Erik

2017-03-01

While portfolios have seen an unprecedented surge in popularity, they have also become the subject of controversy: learners often perceive little gain from writing reflections as part of their portfolios; scholars question the ethics of such obligatory reflection; and students, residents, teachers and scholars alike condemn the bureaucracy surrounding portfolio implementation in competency-based education. It could be argued that mass adoption without careful attention to purpose and format may well jeopardize portfolios' viability in health sciences education. This paper explores this proposition by addressing the following three main questions: (1) Why do portfolios meet with such resistance from students and teachers, while educators love them?; (2) Is it ethical to require students to reflect and then grade their reflections?; (3) Does competency-based education empower or hamper the learner during workplace-based learning? Twenty-five years of portfolio reveal a clear story: without mentoring, portfolios have no future and are nothing short of bureaucratic hurdles in our competency-based education programs. Moreover, comprehensive portfolios, which are integrated into the curriculum and much more diverse in content than reflective portfolios, can serve as meaningful patient charts, providing doctor and patient with useful information to discuss well-being and treatment. In this sense, portfolios are also learner charts that comprehensively document progress in a learning trajectory which is lubricated by meaningful dialogue between learner and mentor in a trusting relationship to foster learning. If we are able to make such comprehensive and meaningful use of portfolios, then, yes, portfolios do have a bright future in medical education.

Asset management using genetic algorithm: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbas Sarijaloo

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effect of market management using Markowitz theorem. The study uses the information of 50 best performers on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2006-2009 and, using Markowitz theorem, the efficient asset allocation are determined and the result are analyzed. The proposed model of this paper has been solved using genetic algorithm. The results indicate that Tehran Stock Exchange has managed to perform much better than average world market in most years of studies especially on year 2009. The results of our investigation have also indicated that one could reach outstanding results using GA and forming efficient portfolio.

A Case Study of Forecasted Earnings Acceleration and Stock Selection in Global and Emerging Stock Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Guerard

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The allocation of scarce economic resources so as to maximize societal good is at the very core of human economic development. The key contribution of Markowitz [1] was to view this age-old activity in a scientifically rigorous manner, and bring three key elements to the forefront, namely, risk, return and correlations. Since the publication of Markowitz' seminal paper, investment professionals have expensed significant resources in identifying, understanding, and monetizing new sources of uncorrelated returns. This paper moves forward that narrative by focusing on Emerging Markets (EM and demonstrating the effectiveness of earnings acceleration factors in building significantly better mean-variance optimized portfolios.

DOMESTIC VS INTERNATIONAL RISK DIVERSIFICATION POSSIBILITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinisa Bogdan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Modern portfolio theory is one of the most important investment decision tools in finances. In 1952 Harry Markowitz set the foundations of the Modern portfolio theory, since than this theory was a backbone of many studies that dealt with investment decisions. This research applies mean-variance portfolio optimization on the international Southeastern Europe and domestic Croatian stock market exchange. Aim of this research is to compare risk diversification possibilities on the Southeastern European capital markets and on the Croatian Capital market. By analyzing nine stock market indices in the Southeastern Europe and twenty stocks from Zagreb Stock Exchange in the period of 36 months, results clearly show that internationally diversified portfolios offer better portfolio risk reduction than domestically diversified portfolios. Lowest achieved risk in international portfolio outperformed lowest achieved risk in domestic portfolio. Since risk is lower, returns are also much lower compared to domestic stock portfolios. Results of this research also report that domestic stock portfolios outperformed international portfolios at the risk level equal or higher than 0,97%, for the same risk, domestic portfolios offer greater returns.

Teacher Portfolios.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfe-Quintero, Kate; Brown, James Dean

1998-01-01

A portfolio of achievements, experiences, and reflections can help English-as-a-Second-Language teachers attain professional development goals and offer administrators greater insight for making informed hiring and job-performance decisions. This paper focuses on what teacher portfolios are, what their contents should be, and what their uses are…

Decentralized portfolio management

OpenAIRE

Coutinho, Paulo; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda

2003-01-01

We use a mean-variance model to analyze the problem of decentralized portfolio management. We find the solution for the optimal portfolio allocation for a head trader operating in n different markets, which is called the optimal centralized portfolio. However, as there are many traders specialized in different markets, the solution to the problem of optimal decentralized allocation should be different from the centralized case. In this paper we derive conditions for the solutions to be equiva...

The standard for portfolio management

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

The Standard for Portfolio Management – Fourth Edition has been updated to best reflect the current state of portfolio management. It describe the principles that drive accepted good portfolio management practices in today’s organizations. It also expands the description of portfolio management to reflect its relation to organizational project management and the organization.

Portfolios Dominating Indices: Optimization with Second-Order Stochastic Dominance Constraints vs. Minimum and Mean Variance Portfolios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neslihan Fidan Keçeci

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some specific characteristic, such as variance. The paper is focused on practical applications of the portfolio optimization and uses the Portfolio Safeguard (PSG package, which has precoded modules for optimization with SSD constraints, mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. We have done in-sample and out-of-sample simulations for portfolios of stocks from the Dow Jones, S&P 100 and DAX indices. The considered portfolios’ SSD dominate the Dow Jones, S&P 100 and DAX indices. Simulation demonstrated a superior performance of portfolios with SD constraints, versus mean-variance and minimum variance portfolios.

Optimizing cropland cover for stable food production in Sub-Saharan Africa using simulated yield and Modern Portfolio Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bodin, P.; Olin, S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.

2014-12-01

Food security can be defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In Sub Saharan Africa access to food is strongly linked to local food production and the capacity to generate enough calories to sustain the local population. Therefore it is important in these regions to generate not only sufficiently high yields but also to reduce interannual variability in food production. Traditionally, climate impact simulation studies have focused on factors that underlie maximum productivity ignoring the variability in yield. By using Modern Portfolio Theory, a method stemming from economics, we here calculate optimum current and future crop selection that maintain current yield while minimizing variance, vs. maintaining variance while maximizing yield. Based on simulated yield using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, the results show that current cropland distribution for many crops is close to these optimum distributions. Even so, the optimizations displayed substantial potential to either increase food production and/or to decrease its variance regionally. Our approach can also be seen as a method to create future scenarios for the sown areas of crops in regions where local food production is important for food security.

Post-modern portfolio theory supports diversification in an investment portfolio to measure investment's performance

OpenAIRE

Rasiah, Devinaga

2012-01-01

This study looks at the Post-Modern Portfolio Theory that maintains greater diversification in an investment portfolio by using the alpha and the beta coefficient to measure investment performance. Post-Modern Portfolio Theory appreciates that investment risk should be tied to each investor's goals and the outcome of this goal did not symbolize economic of the financial risk. Post-Modern Portfolio Theory's downside measure generated a noticeable distinction between downside and upside volatil...

Utility portfolio diversification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffes, P.H.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses portfolio analysis as a method to evaluate utility supply decisions. Specifically a utility is assumed to increase the value of its portfolio of assets whenever it invests in a new supply technology. This increase in value occurs because the new asset either enhances the return or diversifies the risks of the firm's portfolio of assets. This evaluation method is applied to two supply innovations in the electric utility industry: jointly-owned generating plants and supply contracts with independent power producers (IPPs)

Teaching Portfolio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Christian Fischer

The present teaching portfolio has been submitted for evaluation in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the teacher training programme for Assistant Professors at Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Denmark.......The present teaching portfolio has been submitted for evaluation in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the teacher training programme for Assistant Professors at Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Denmark....

Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Mark R

2015-12-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Portfolio optimization with mean-variance model

Science.gov (United States)

Hoe, Lam Weng; Siew, Lam Weng

2016-06-01

Investors wish to achieve the target rate of return at the minimum level of risk in their investment. Portfolio optimization is an investment strategy that can be used to minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the target rate of return. The mean-variance model has been proposed in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model is an optimization model that aims to minimize the portfolio risk which is the portfolio variance. The objective of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using the mean-variance model. The data of this study consists of weekly returns of 20 component stocks of FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI). The results of this study show that the portfolio composition of the stocks is different. Moreover, investors can get the return at minimum level of risk with the constructed optimal mean-variance portfolio.

Households' portfolio choices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hochgürtel, S.

1998-01-01

This thesis presents four topics on households' portfolio choices. Empirically, households do not hold well-diversified wealth portfolios. In particular, they refrain from putting their savings into risky assets. We explore several ways that might help explaining this observation. Using Dutch

A mean–variance objective for robust production optimization in uncertain geological scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capolei, Andrea; Suwartadi, Eka; Foss, Bjarne

2014-01-01

directly. In the mean–variance bi-criterion objective function risk appears directly, it also considers an ensemble of reservoir models, and has robust optimization as a special extreme case. The mean–variance objective is common for portfolio optimization problems in finance. The Markowitz portfolio...... optimization problem is the original and simplest example of a mean–variance criterion for mitigating risk. Risk is mitigated in oil production by including both the expected NPV (mean of NPV) and the risk (variance of NPV) for the ensemble of possible reservoir models. With the inclusion of the risk...

A note on the sensitivity of the strategic asset allocation problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W.J. Hurley

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Markowitz mean–variance portfolio optimization problem is a quadratic programming problem whose first-order conditions require the solution of a linear system. It is well known that the optimal portfolio weights are sensitive to parameter estimates, particularly the mean return vector. This has generally been attributed to the interaction of estimation error and optimization. In this paper we present some examples that suggest the linear system produced by the first-order conditions is ill-conditioned and it is this property that gives rise to the sensitivity of the optimal weights.

A load factor based mean-variance analysis for fuel diversification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gotham, Douglas; Preckel, Paul; Ruangpattana, Suriya [State Utility Forecasting Group, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Muthuraman, Kumar [McCombs School of Business, University of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Rardin, Ronald [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR (United States)

2009-03-15

Fuel diversification implies the selection of a mix of generation technologies for long-term electricity generation. The goal is to strike a good balance between reduced costs and reduced risk. The method of analysis that has been advocated and adopted for such studies is the mean-variance portfolio analysis pioneered by Markowitz (Markowitz, H., 1952. Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance 7(1) 77-91). However the standard mean-variance methodology, does not account for the ability of various fuels/technologies to adapt to varying loads. Such analysis often provides results that are easily dismissed by regulators and practitioners as unacceptable, since load cycles play critical roles in fuel selection. To account for such issues and still retain the convenience and elegance of the mean-variance approach, we propose a variant of the mean-variance analysis using the decomposition of the load into various types and utilizing the load factors of each load type. We also illustrate the approach using data for the state of Indiana and demonstrate the ability of the model in providing useful insights. (author)

Evaluation of an established learning portfolio.

Science.gov (United States)

Vance, Gillian; Williamson, Alyson; Frearson, Richard; O'Connor, Nicole; Davison, John; Steele, Craig; Burford, Bryan

2013-02-01

The trainee-held learning portfolio is integral to the foundation programme in the UK. In the Northern Deanery, portfolio assessment is standardised through the Annual Review of Competence Progression (ARCP) process. In this study we aimed to establish how current trainees evaluate portfolio-based learning and ARCP, and how these attitudes may have changed since the foundation programme was first introduced. Deanery-wide trainee attitudes were surveyed by an electronic questionnaire in 2009 and compared with perceptions recorded during the pilot phase (2004-2005).  Many trainees continue to view the e-portfolio negatively. Indeed, significantly fewer trainees in 2009 thought that the e-portfolio was a 'good idea' or a 'worthwhile investment of time' than in 2005. Trainees remain unconvinced about the educational value of the e-portfolio: fewer trainees in 2009 regarded it as a tool that might help focus on training or recognise individual strengths and weaknesses. Issues around unnecessary bureaucracy persist. Current trainees tend to understand how to use the e-portfolio, but many did not know how much, or what evidence to collect. Few supervisors were reported to provide useful guidance on the portfolio. ARCP encouraged portfolio completion but did not give meaningful feedback to drive future learning.   Continued support is needed for both trainees and supervisors in portfolio-building skills and in using the e-portfolio as an educational tool. Trainee-tailored feedback is needed to ensure that portfolio-based assessment promotes lifelong, self-directed and reflective learners. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2013.

Making sense with ePortfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Bo Klindt; Dimsits, Miriam

2017-01-01

of the statements from the students concerning their understanding of ePortfolio processes are fundamentally questions of how to make sense of the ePortfolio tool, both in their professional and personal lives. This calls for a didactical stance with the teachers who use ePortfolios, based on empowerment through......This article discusses the question of making sense out of working with ePortfolio in adult education. The article presents the results of a small-scale survey among adults in continuing education who have worked with ePortfolio as the central didactic principle. It is argued that many...... meaning-making, in order for ePortfolios to make sense. It is suggested that two relevant didactic perspectives for making sense of the world can be found in theories of biographicity and metaphor work. Moreover, a strong didactic stance that supports sense-making must be based on a strong teacher role...

12 CFR 347.108 - Portfolio investments.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Portfolio investments. 347.108 Section 347.108... INTERNATIONAL BANKING § 347.108 Portfolio investments. (a) Portfolio investments. If a bank, directly or indirectly, acquires or holds an equity interest in a foreign organization as a portfolio investment and the...

Portfolios in Saudi medical colleges

Science.gov (United States)

Fida, Nadia M.; Shamim, Muhammad S.

2016-01-01

Over recent decades, the use of portfolios in medical education has evolved, and is being applied in undergraduate and postgraduate programs worldwide. Portfolios, as a learning process and method of documenting and assessing learning, is supported as a valuable tool by adult learning theories that stress the need for learners to be self-directed and to engage in experiential learning. Thoughtfully implemented, a portfolio provides learning experiences unequaled by any single learning tool. The credibility (validity) and dependability (reliability) of assessment through portfolios have been questioned owing to its subjective nature; however, methods to safeguard these features have been described in the literature. This paper discusses some of this literature, with particular attention to the role of portfolios in relation to self-reflective learning, provides an overview of current use of portfolios in undergraduate medical education in Saudi Arabia, and proposes research-based guidelines for its implementation and other similar contexts. PMID:26905344

Portfolio Analysis for Vector Calculus

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Samuel R.

2015-01-01

Classic stock portfolio analysis provides an applied context for Lagrange multipliers that undergraduate students appreciate. Although modern methods of portfolio analysis are beyond the scope of vector calculus, classic methods reinforce the utility of this material. This paper discusses how to introduce classic stock portfolio analysis in a…

Optimal Portfolios in Wishart Models and Effects of Discrete Rebalancing on Portfolio Distribution and Strategy Selection

OpenAIRE

Li, Zejing

2012-01-01

This dissertation is mainly devoted to the research of two problems - the continuous-time portfolio optimization in different Wishart models and the effects of discrete rebalancing on portfolio wealth distribution and optimal portfolio strategy.

Using Electronic Portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Deb

2012-01-01

The digitized collections of artifacts known as electronic portfolios are creating solutions to a variety of performance improvement needs in ways that are cost-effective and improve both individual and group learning and performance. When social media functionality is embedded in e-portfolios, the tools support collaboration, social learning,…

Portfolios dominating indices: Optimization with second-order stochastic dominance constraints vs. minimum and mean variance portfolios

OpenAIRE

Keçeci, Neslihan Fidan; Kuzmenko, Viktor; Uryasev, Stan

2016-01-01

The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some specific characteristic, such as variance. The paper is focused on practical applications of the portfolio optimization and uses the Portfolio Safeguard (PSG) package, which has precoded modules for op...

Portfolios Dominating Indices: Optimization with Second-Order Stochastic Dominance Constraints vs. Minimum and Mean Variance Portfolios

OpenAIRE

Neslihan Fidan Keçeci; Viktor Kuzmenko; Stan Uryasev

2016-01-01

The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some specific characteristic, such as variance. The paper is focused on practical applications of the portfolio optimization and uses the Portfolio Safeguard (PSG) package, which has precoded modules for op...

Portfolio i erhvervsuddannelserne

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2008-01-01

Materialet kombinerer korte film med introducerende tekster og belyser fra forskellige vinkler, hvordan portfolio kan bruges som evalueringsmetode i erhvervsuddannelserne. Udgiver: Undervisningsministeriet Udgivelsessted: Pub.uvm.dk......Materialet kombinerer korte film med introducerende tekster og belyser fra forskellige vinkler, hvordan portfolio kan bruges som evalueringsmetode i erhvervsuddannelserne. Udgiver: Undervisningsministeriet Udgivelsessted: Pub.uvm.dk...

Portfolio Management

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Sharon L.

2011-01-01

Enterprise Business Information Services Division (EBIS) supports the Laboratory and its functions through the implementation and support of business information systems on behalf of its business community. EBIS Five Strategic Focus Areas: (1) Improve project estimating, planning and delivery capability (2) Improve maintainability and sustainability of EBIS Application Portfolio (3) Leap forward in IT Leadership (4) Comprehensive Talent Management (5) Continuous IT Security Program. Portfolio Management is a strategy in which software applications are managed as assets

Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Xisong

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1 Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2 Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3 The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4 Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5 Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6 Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.

The Development of E-Portfolio Evaluation Criteria and Application to the Blackboard LMS E-Portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Gary F.; Stansfield, Mark H.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop e-portfolio evaluation criteria which will be used to review the Blackboard LMS e-portfolio being used at one Higher Education (HE) institution in the UK as evaluation criteria for reviewing e-portfolio provision does not exist in the literature. The approach taken was to initiate a wide literature search…

13 CFR 107.760 - How a change in size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the Licensee and the Portfolio...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... of a Portfolio Concern affects the Licensee and the Portfolio Concern. 107.760 Section 107.760... § 107.760 How a change in size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the Licensee and the Portfolio Concern. (a) Effect on Licensee of a change in size of a Portfolio Concern. If a Portfolio Concern no...

Robust Active Portfolio Management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Erdogan, E; Goldfarb, D; Iyengar, G

2006-01-01

... on the portfolio beta, and limits on cash and industry exposure. We show that the optimal portfolios can be computed by solving second-order cone programs -- a class of optimization problems with a worst case complexity (i.e...

Universal portfolios generated by the Bregman divergence

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Choon Peng; Kuang, Kee Seng

2017-04-01

The Bregman divergence of two probability vectors is a stronger form of the f-divergence introduced by Csiszar. Two versions of the Bregman universal portfolio are presented by exploiting the mean-value theorem. The explicit form of the Bregman universal portfolio generated by a function of a convex polynomial is derived and studied empirically. This portfolio can be regarded as another generalized of the well-known Helmbold portfolio. By running the portfolios on selected stock-price data sets from the local stock exchange, it is shown that it is possible to increase the wealth of the investor by using the portfolios in investment.

A Mean variance analysis of arbitrage portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Shuhong

2007-03-01

Based on the careful analysis of the definition of arbitrage portfolio and its return, the author presents a mean-variance analysis of the return of arbitrage portfolios, which implies that Korkie and Turtle's results ( B. Korkie, H.J. Turtle, A mean-variance analysis of self-financing portfolios, Manage. Sci. 48 (2002) 427-443) are misleading. A practical example is given to show the difference between the arbitrage portfolio frontier and the usual portfolio frontier.

Patent portfolio management: literature review and a proposed model.

Science.gov (United States)

Conegundes De Jesus, Camila Kiyomi; Salerno, Mario Sergio

2018-05-09

Patents and patent portfolios are gaining attention in the last decades, from the called 'pro-patent era' to the recent billionaire transactions involving patent portfolios. The field is growing in importance, both theoretically and practically and despite having substantial literature on new product development portfolio management, we have not found an article relating this theory to patent portfolios. Areas covered: The paper develops a systematic literature review on patent portfolio management to organize the evolution and tendencies of patent portfolio management, highlighting distinctive features of patent portfolio management. Interview with IP manager of three life sciences companies, including a leading multinational group provided relevant information about patent portfolio management. Expert opinion: Based on the systematic literature review on portfolio management, more specifically, on new product development portfolio theory, and interview the paper proposes the paper proposes a reference model to manage patent portfolios. The model comprises four stages aligned with the three goals of the NPD portfolio management: 1 - Linking strategy of the Company's NPD Portfolio to Patent Portfolio; 2 - Balancing the portfolio in buckets; 3 - Patent Valuation (maximizing valuation); 4 - Regularly reviewing the patent portfolio.

Purchasing portfolio usage and purchasing sophistication

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gelderman, C.J.; Weele, van A.J.

2005-01-01

Purchasing portfolio models have caused considerable controversy in literature. Many advantages and disadvantages have been put forward, revealing a strong disagreement on the merits of portfolio models. This study addresses the question whether or not the use of purchasing portfolio models should

Household portfolios and implicit risk aversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bucciol, A.; Miniaci, R.

2008-01-01

We derive from a sample of US households the distribution of the risk aversion implicit in their portfolio choice. Our estimate minimizes the distance between the certainty equivalent return generated with observed portfolios and portfolios that are optimal in a mean-variance framework. Taking into

Hierarchical Portfolio Management: Theory and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H. Ning (Haikun)

2007-01-01

textabstractUnder his own preference, how should an investor coordinate the asset managers such that his aggregated portfolio is optimized? The efficiency of each managed sub portfolio and the aggregation of all the sub portfolios are the 2 main underlying problems considered in this dissertation.

Quantitative investment strategies and portfolio management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guo, J.

2012-01-01

This book contains three essays on alternative investments and portfolio management. Taking from a portfolio investor’s perspective, the first essay analyzes the portfolio implication of investing in hedge funds when there is a hedge fund lockup period. The second essay studies the investment

Bank Portfolio Structure and Economic Absorption Theory of Economic Development: A Theoretical Proposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uduak B. UBOM

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The focus of this article was on theoretical proposition of Bank Portfolio Structure and Economic Absorption Theory of economic development. Specifically, the work sought to establish the basis of bank portfolio rigidity and to identify the causes of economic absorption problems and their implications on economic development. The theoretical and conceptual research designs were used. Existing literatures were reviewed using archival retrieval approach, library search and internet exploration. The information obtained was judgmentally, logically and qualitatively analyzed. It was discovered among others, that, bank portfolio rigidity stems from regulatory policy defects using inconsistent monetary policy tools such as high liquidity ratio and cash ratio, etc. and compelling the banks to adhere to the regulatory requirement, as well as lack of adequate and quality stock of infrastructure and technology as the basic causes of economic absorption problems. Above all, low level of economic absorption has been discovered to hinder effective contributions of banks to economic development. Following from above, it was therefore recommended that regulatory tools used by Central Banks should be aligned with the development needs of the economy and the direction of governments. The monetary policy tools such as liquidity and cash ratios should also be moderated and stabilized for stable bank portfolio performance as well as aggressive improvement in the stock and quality of infrastructure and technology within an economy. With the new theory, it is expected that policy formulations and adjustments concerning bank portfolio structure and management would be designed with adequate flexibility and focus on long term loans and investments coupled with improved stock and quality of infrastructure to enhance economic development. This theory therefore provides another frontier of research on bank portfolio structure and contributions to economic development.

Project Portfolio Management Applications Testing

OpenAIRE

Paul POCATILU

2006-01-01

Many IT companies are running project simultaneously. In order to achieve the best results, they have to group to the project in portfolios, and to use specific software that helps to manage them. Project portfolio management applications have a high degree of complexity and they are very important for the companies that are using it. This paper focuses on some characteristics of the testing process for project portfolio management applications

Project Portfolio Management Applications Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul POCATILU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Many IT companies are running project simultaneously. In order to achieve the best results, they have to group to the project in portfolios, and to use specific software that helps to manage them. Project portfolio management applications have a high degree of complexity and they are very important for the companies that are using it. This paper focuses on some characteristics of the testing process for project portfolio management applications

Portfolio insurance using traded options

OpenAIRE

Machado-Santos, Carlos

2001-01-01

Literature concerning the institutional use of options indicates that the main purpose of option trading is to provide investors with the opportunity to create return distributions previously unavailable, considering that options provide the means to manipulate portfolio returns. In such a context, this study intends to analyse the returns of insured portfolios generated by hedging strategies on underlying stock portfolios. Because dynamic hedging is too expensive, we have hedged the stock po...

Minimum Variance Portfolios in the Brazilian Equity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandre Rubesam

2013-03-01

Full Text Available We investigate minimum variance portfolios in the Brazilian equity market using different methods to estimate the covariance matrix, from the simple model of using the sample covariance to multivariate GARCH models. We compare the performance of the minimum variance portfolios to those of the following benchmarks: (i the IBOVESPA equity index, (ii an equally-weighted portfolio, (iii the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio and (iv the maximum growth portfolio. Our results show that the minimum variance portfolio has higher returns with lower risk compared to the benchmarks. We also consider long-short 130/30 minimum variance portfolios and obtain similar results. The minimum variance portfolio invests in relatively few stocks with low βs measured with respect to the IBOVESPA index, being easily replicable by individual and institutional investors alike.

PSN: Portfolio Social Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cortes, Jordi Magrina; Nizamani, Sarwat; Memon, Nasrullah

2014-01-01

In this paper we present a web-based information system which is a portfolio social network (PSN) that provides solutions to the recruiters and job seekers. The proposed system enables users to create portfolio so that he/she can add his specializations with piece of code if any specifically...

Sygeplejestuderendes brug af portfolio i klinisk undervisning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjorth, Anne Charlotte Overgaard; Bruhn, Helle

2014-01-01

Brugen af portfolio var mangelfuld, men et udviklingsprojekt i samarbejde med den kommunale sygepleje motiverede både sygeplejestuderende og kliniske vejledere til at anvende læringsdelen af portfolio aktivt.......Brugen af portfolio var mangelfuld, men et udviklingsprojekt i samarbejde med den kommunale sygepleje motiverede både sygeplejestuderende og kliniske vejledere til at anvende læringsdelen af portfolio aktivt....

Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization

OpenAIRE

Vincenzo Tola; Fabrizio Lillo; Mauro Gallegati; Rosario N. Mantegna

2005-01-01

We consider the problem of the statistical uncertainty of the correlation matrix in the optimization of a financial portfolio. We show that the use of clustering algorithms can improve the reliability of the portfolio in terms of the ratio between predicted and realized risk. Bootstrap analysis indicates that this improvement is obtained in a wide range of the parameters N (number of assets) and T (investment horizon). The predicted and realized risk level and the relative portfolio compositi...

Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Cathrine

2014-01-01

on the theme, originally proposed by Fischer Black. In CPPI, a financial institution guarantees a floor value for the “insured” portfolio and adjusts the stock/bond mix to produce a leveraged exposure to the risky assets, which depends on how far the portfolio value is above the floor. Plain-vanilla portfolio...... insurance largely died with the crash of 1987, but CPPI is still going strong. In the frictionless markets of finance theory, the issuer’s strategy to hedge its liability under the contract is clear, but in the real world with transactions costs and stochastic jump risk, the optimal strategy is less obvious...

Validity of the Learning Portfolio: Analysis of a Portfolio Proposal for the University

Science.gov (United States)

Gregori-Giralt, Eva; Menéndez-Varela, José Luis

2015-01-01

Validity is a central issue in portfolio-based assessment. This empirical study used a quantitative approach to analyse the validity of the inferences drawn from a disciplinary course work portfolio assessment comprising profession-specific and learning competencies. The study also examined the problems involved in the development of the…

Performance of the reverse Helmbold universal portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Choon Peng; Kuang, Kee Seng; Lee, Yap Jia

2017-04-01

The universal portfolio is an important investment strategy in a stock market where no stochastic model is assumed for the stock prices. The zero-gradient set of the objective function estimating the next-day portfolio which contains the reverse Kullback-Leibler order-alpha divergence is considered. From the zero-gradient set, the explicit, reverse Helmbold universal portfolio is obtained. The performance of the explicit, reverse Helmbold universal portfolio is studied by running them on some stock-price data sets from the local stock exchange. It is possible to increase the wealth of the investor by using these portfolios in investment.

Æstetik og portfolio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hyldahl, Kirsten Kofod; Sams, Pernille; Egelund, Karen Stine

2017-01-01

Nærværende artikel præsenterer resultaterne af udviklingsprojektet ”Portfolio og æstetik” på pædagoguddannelsen i Hjørring. Projektet har til formål, gennem æstetisk formsprog, at stilladsere og fastholde de studerendes læreprocesser samt udvikle og implementere portfolio i studieaktiviteter på...

Specific patterns in portfolio analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In the mid-twentieth century, under an unprecedented growth of the business of trading in securities, the need to provide a modern framework for assessing the performance of portfolios of financial instruments was felt. To that effect, it is noted that over this period, more and more economists have attempted to develop statistical mathematical models that ensure the evaluation of profitability and portfolio risk securities. These models are considered to be part of "the modern portfolio theory".

Performance of salmon fishery portfolios across western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Jennifer R; Schindler, Daniel E; Armstrong, Jonathan B; Scheuerell, Mark D; Whited, Diane C; Clark, Robert A; Hilborn, Ray; Holt, Carrie A; Lindley, Steven T; Stanford, Jack A; Volk, Eric C

2014-01-01

Quantifying the variability in the delivery of ecosystem services across the landscape can be used to set appropriate management targets, evaluate resilience and target conservation efforts. Ecosystem functions and services may exhibit portfolio-type dynamics, whereby diversity within lower levels promotes stability at more aggregated levels. Portfolio theory provides a framework to characterize the relative performance among ecosystems and the processes that drive differences in performance. We assessed Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. portfolio performance across their native latitudinal range focusing on the reliability of salmon returns as a metric with which to assess the function of salmon ecosystems and their services to humans. We used the Sharpe ratio (e.g. the size of the total salmon return to the portfolio relative to its variability (risk)) to evaluate the performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios across the west coast of North America. We evaluated the effects on portfolio performance from the variance of and covariance among salmon returns within each portfolio, and the association between portfolio performance and watershed attributes. We found a positive latitudinal trend in the risk-adjusted performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios that also correlated negatively with anthropogenic impact on watersheds (e.g. dams and land-use change). High-latitude Chinook salmon portfolios were on average 2·5 times more reliable, and their portfolio risk was mainly due to low variance in the individual assets. Sockeye salmon portfolios were also more reliable at higher latitudes, but sources of risk varied among the highest performing portfolios. Synthesis and applications. Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally

Performance of salmon fishery portfolios across western North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Jennifer R; Schindler, Daniel E; Armstrong, Jonathan B; Scheuerell, Mark D; Whited, Diane C; Clark, Robert A; Hilborn, Ray; Holt, Carrie A; Lindley, Steven T; Stanford, Jack A; Volk, Eric C

2014-12-01

Quantifying the variability in the delivery of ecosystem services across the landscape can be used to set appropriate management targets, evaluate resilience and target conservation efforts. Ecosystem functions and services may exhibit portfolio-type dynamics, whereby diversity within lower levels promotes stability at more aggregated levels. Portfolio theory provides a framework to characterize the relative performance among ecosystems and the processes that drive differences in performance. We assessed Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. portfolio performance across their native latitudinal range focusing on the reliability of salmon returns as a metric with which to assess the function of salmon ecosystems and their services to humans. We used the Sharpe ratio (e.g. the size of the total salmon return to the portfolio relative to its variability (risk)) to evaluate the performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios across the west coast of North America. We evaluated the effects on portfolio performance from the variance of and covariance among salmon returns within each portfolio, and the association between portfolio performance and watershed attributes. We found a positive latitudinal trend in the risk-adjusted performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios that also correlated negatively with anthropogenic impact on watersheds (e.g. dams and land-use change). High-latitude Chinook salmon portfolios were on average 2·5 times more reliable, and their portfolio risk was mainly due to low variance in the individual assets. Sockeye salmon portfolios were also more reliable at higher latitudes, but sources of risk varied among the highest performing portfolios. Synthesis and applications . Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally

Ant colony algorithm for clustering in portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Subekti, R.; Sari, E. R.; Kusumawati, R.

2018-03-01

This research aims to describe portfolio optimization using clustering methods with ant colony approach. Two stock portfolios of LQ45 Indonesia is proposed based on the cluster results obtained from ant colony optimization (ACO). The first portfolio consists of assets with ant colony displacement opportunities beyond the defined probability limits of the researcher, where the weight of each asset is determined by mean-variance method. The second portfolio consists of two assets with the assumption that each asset is a cluster formed from ACO. The first portfolio has a better performance compared to the second portfolio seen from the Sharpe index.

Financial Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kramer, M.M.

2012-01-01

This paper investigates whether financial advisers add value to individual investors portfolio decisions by comparing portfolios of advised and self-directed (execution-only) Dutch individual investors. The results indicate significant differences in characteristics and portfolios between these

Decentralized Portfolio Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Miranda Tabak

2003-12-01

Full Text Available We use a mean-variance model to analyze the problem of decentralized portfolio management. We find the solution for the optimal portfolio allocation for a head trader operating in n different markets, which is called the optimal centralized portfolio. However, as there are many traders specialized in different markets, the solution to the problem of optimal decentralized allocation should be different from the centralized case. In this paper we derive conditions for the solutions to be equivalent. We use multivariate normal returns and a negative exponential function to solve the problem analytically. We generate the equivalence of solutions by assuming that different traders face different interest rates for borrowing and lending. This interest rate is dependent on the ratio of the degrees of risk aversion of the trader and the head trader, on the excess return, and on the correlation between asset returns.

Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy : Evidence from Finnish Stocks

OpenAIRE

Savage, Akinwunmi

2010-01-01

Portfolio rebalancing is an established concept in portfolio management and investing generally. Assets within a portfolio have different return and risk prospects, and this inevitably leads them to drift away from their initial allocation weights overtime. Portfolio rebalancing is arguably the only method by which such assets can be reset to their initial weights, thus ensuring the portfolio reflects the risk appetite of the investor. Like many other concepts and practices in finance, portfo...

A Relationship Strategy Perspective on Relationship Portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ritter, Thomas; Andersen, Henrik

2014-01-01

The paper develops a three-dimensional portfolio model for business relationships which distinguishes among six different categories. Based on assessments of customer profitability, customer commitment, and growth potential, the positioning of a given customer relationship in the portfolio allows...... managers to determine appropriate customer relationship strategies and appropriate performance indicators. Results from applying the portfolio model are reported and managerial implications and future research are discussed.......The paper develops a three-dimensional portfolio model for business relationships which distinguishes among six different categories. Based on assessments of customer profitability, customer commitment, and growth potential, the positioning of a given customer relationship in the portfolio allows...

12 CFR 1252.1 - Enterprise portfolio holding criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Enterprise portfolio holding criteria. 1252.1 Section 1252.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY ENTERPRISES PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS § 1252.1 Enterprise portfolio holding criteria. The Enterprises are required to comply with the portfolio holdings...

PRODUCT PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - ARTHUR D. LITTLE MATRIX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Curmei Catalin Valeriu

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In recent decades we have witnessed an unseen dynamism among companies, which is explained by their desire to engage in more activities that provide a high level of development and diversification. Thus, as companies are diversifying more and more, their managers confront a number of challenges arising from the management of resources for the product portfolio and the low level of resources with which companies can identify, at a time. Responding to these challenges, over time were developed a series of analytical product portfolio methods through which managers can balance the sources of cash flows from the multiple products and also can identify the place and role of products, in strategic terms, within the product portfolio. In order to identify these methods the authors of the present paper have conducted a desk research in order to analyze the strategic marketing and management literature of the last 2 decades. Widely were studied a series of methods that are presented in the marketing and management literature as the main instruments used within the product portfolio strategic planning process. Among these methods we focused on the Arthur D. Little matrix. Thus the present paper has the purpose to outline the characteristics and strategic implications of the ADL matrix within a company’s product portfolio. After conducting this analysis we have found that restricting the product portfolio analysis to the A.D.L. matrix is not a very wise decision. The A.D.L. matrix among with other marketing tools of product portfolio analysis have some advantages and disadvantages and is trying to provide, at a time, a specific diagnosis of a company’s product portfolio. Therefore, the recommendation for the Romanian managers consists in a combined use of a wide range of tools and techniques for product portfolio analysis. This leads to a better understanding of the whole mix of product markets, included in portfolio analysis, the strategic position

METHODICAL BASES OF MANAGEMENT OF INSURANCE PORTFOLIO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serdechna Yulia

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the considerable arsenal of developments in the issues of assessing the management of the insurance portfolio remains unresolved. In order to detail, specify and further systematize the indicators for the indicated evaluation, the publications of scientists are analyzed. The purpose of the study is to analyze existing methods by which it is possible to formulate and manage the insurance portfolio in order to achieve its balance, which will contribute to ensuring the financial reliability of the insurance company. Results. The description of the essence of the concept of “management of insurance portfolio”, as the application of actuarial methods and techniques to the combination of various insurance risks offered for insurance or are already part of the insurance portfolio, allowing to adjust the size and structure of the portfolio in order to ensure its financial stability, achievement the maximum level of income of an insurance organization, preservation of the value of its equity and financial security of insurance liabilities. It is determined that the main methods by which the insurer’s insurance portfolio can be formed and managed is the selection of risks; reinsurance operations that ensure diversification of risks; formation and placement of insurance reserves, which form the financial basis of insurance activities. The method of managing an insurance portfolio, which can be both active and passive, is considered. Conclusions. It is determined that the insurance portfolio is the basis on which all the activities of the insurer are based and which determines its financial stability. The combination of methods and technologies applied to the insurance portfolio is a management method that can be both active and passive and has a number of specific methods through which the insurer’s insurance portfolio can be formed and managed. It is substantiated that each insurance company aims to form an efficient and

PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL SAHAM – SAHAM PERBANKAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL INDEKS TUNGGAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sari Yuniarti

2017-03-01

Full Text Available When Investor making an investment, they willing to get an optimal return, but on the reality, investor facedby uncertainty called risk. By making diversification, investor can be done by forming combination ofportfolio to reduce the rate of risk and optimizes the rate of expected return. This research aimed atanalyzing the form of optimal portfolio at the stocks of banking by using Single Index Model based onportfolio chosen theory which was increased first time by Markowitz (1952. Data used was secondary dataconsisting the data of banking stocks price which was in LQ-45 during 2009. By using single index modelwhere the combination of optimal portfolio was consisted of return and risk level of banking stock individually,composition of each candidate forming optimal portfolio was stock of BRI Bank, BCA, and BNI

Mean-Reverting Portfolio With Budget Constraint

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ziping; Palomar, Daniel P.

2018-05-01

This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by optimizing a mean-reversion criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength, taking into consideration the variance of the portfolio and an investment budget constraint. Then several specific problems are considered based on the general formulation, and efficient algorithms are proposed. Numerical results on both synthetic and market data show that our proposed mean-reverting portfolio design methods can generate consistent profits and outperform the traditional design methods and the benchmark methods in the literature.

The Determinants of Investor Preferences during the Financial Crisis Periods: A Study on 2001 Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gülfen TUNA

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The study is targeting to examine the effects of 2001 financial crisis on the shares included in the lowest-risk portfolios of Istanbul Stock Exchange. To this end; monthly returns data of all shares traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange between 2000:11-2002:09 term, are evaluated. While portfolio selection is carried out via Markowitz Model, the effects of 2001 financal crisis are examined whereby ratio analysis. The findings display that the firms examined have benefited from the positive impact of exporting, furthermore, the amounts of short term debts are increased. Besides, both stock retention and receivable collection periods of the mentioned firms are decreased.

Reliability of Portfolio: A Closer Look at Findings from Recent Publications

Science.gov (United States)

Oskay, Ozge Ozyalcin; Schallies, Michael; Morgil, Inci

2008-01-01

In this review article, conventional portfolio assessment and new developments in portfolio assessment are investigated. The concept of portfolio, portfolio building steps, contents of portfolio, evaluation of portfolio, advantages, disadvantages and concerns in using portfolio as well as validity and reliability of portfolio assessment are…

Vast Portfolio Selection with Gross-exposure Constraints().

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jianqing; Zhang, Jingjin; Yu, Ke

2012-01-01

We introduce the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. We show that with gross-exposure constraint the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results in Jagannathan and Ma (2003). We also show that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 Fama-French industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000.

Student evaluations of the portfolio process.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, John E; Airey, Tatum C; Bisso, Andrea M; Slack, Marion K

2011-09-10

To evaluate pharmacy students' perceived benefits of the portfolio process and to gather suggestions for improving the process. A questionnaire was designed and administered to 250 first-, second-, and third-year pharmacy students at the University of Arizona College of Pharmacy. Although the objectives of the portfolio process were for students to understand the expected outcomes, understand the impact of extracurricular activities on attaining competencies, identify what should be learned, identify their strengths and weaknesses, and modify their approach to learning, overall students perceived the portfolio process as having less than moderate benefit. First-year students wanted more examples of portfolios while second- and third-year students suggested that more time with their advisor would be beneficial. The portfolio process will continue to be refined and efforts made to improve students' perceptions of the process as it is intended to develop the self-assessments skills they will need to improve their knowledge and professional skills throughout their pharmacy careers.

Portfolio optimization with skewness and kurtosis

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Weng Hoe; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Mean and variance of return distributions are two important parameters of the mean-variance model in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model will become inadequate if the returns of assets are not normally distributed. Therefore, higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis cannot be ignored. Risk averse investors prefer portfolios with high skewness and low kurtosis so that the probability of getting negative rates of return will be reduced. The objective of this study is to compare the portfolio compositions as well as performances between the mean-variance model and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model by using the polynomial goal programming approach. The results show that the incorporation of skewness and kurtosis will change the optimal portfolio compositions. The mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model outperforms the mean-variance model because the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model takes skewness and kurtosis into consideration. Therefore, the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is more appropriate for the investors of Malaysia in portfolio optimization.

Managing R&D Alliance Portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engel Nielsen, Lars; Mahnke, Volker

2003-01-01

be observed in several companies engaged in the cross section of telecommunication and mobile technology where increased complexity magnifies managerial challenges. Drawing on modern portfolio theory, this paper offers a model for managing portfolios of R&D alliances. In particular, an analysis...

The Finite and Moving Order Multinomial Universal Portfolio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

2013-01-01

An upper bound for the ratio of wealths of the best constant -rebalanced portfolio to that of the multinomial universal portfolio is derived. The finite- order multinomial universal portfolios can reduce the implementation time and computer-memory requirements for computation. The improved performance of the finite-order portfolios on some selected local stock-price data sets is observed.

Correlation risk and optimal portfolio choice

OpenAIRE

Buraschi, Andrea; Porchia, Paolo; Trojani, Fabio

2010-01-01

We develop a new framework for multivariate intertemporal portfolio choice that allows us to derive optimal portfolio implications for economies in which the degree of correlation across industries, countries, or asset classes is stochastic. Optimal portfolios include distinct hedging components against both stochastic volatility and correlation risk. We find that the hedging demand is typically larger than in univariate models, and it includes an economically significant covariance hedging...

Essays on Rational Portfolio Theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Simon Ellersgaard

market prices, we findonly a very modest improvement in portfolio wealth over the corresponding strategy whichonly trades in bonds and stocks. Optimal Hedge Tracking Portfolios in a Limit Order Book. In this paper we developa control theoretic solution to the manner in which a portfolio manager optimally...... shouldtrack a targeted D, given that he wishes to hedge a short position in European call optionsthe underlying of which is traded in a limit order book. Specifically, we are interested in theinterplay between posting limit and market orders respectively: when should the portfoliomanager do what (and at what......’s theory of optimal portfolio selection for wealth maximisingagents. In this paper we present a systematic analysis of the optimal asset allocation in aderivative-free market for the Heston model, the 3/2 model, and a Fong Vasicek type model.Under the assumption that the market price of risk...

Digital Portfolio: a Strategy for Teachers Professional Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jans

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Teachers have to work with e-portfolio with theirstudents. This is a very demanding task because they neverwere educated with e-portfolio themselves. Therefore aEuropean Comenius project was submitted in 2005. In thisapproved project a whole week formation (april 2007 wasoffered to nineteen teachers from all over Europe. A yearlater they will meet again to see in what way the course hashad effects on their work with e-portfolio and students.Most interesting to notice was that the basic ICT-skills ofteachers are nowadays realized. However teachers are stillbusy with text and text-files. Rarely they uploadedmultimedia, like e.g. photo’s, video’s, youtube-movies, … intheir e-portfolio. The essential element of an e-portfolio, thepersonal and professional development plan, that forms thebackbone of the e-portfolio and offers the possibility tomake the e-portfolio an effective learning instrument wasunknown.

Parametric Portfolio Policies with Common Volatility Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Taamouti, Abderrahim

A parametric portfolio policy function is considered that incorporates common stock volatility dynamics to optimally determine portfolio weights. Reducing dimension of the traditional portfolio selection problem significantly, only a number of policy parameters corresponding to first- and second......-order characteristics are estimated based on a standard method-of-moments technique. The method, allowing for the calculation of portfolio weight and return statistics, is illustrated with an empirical application to 30 U.S. industries to study the economic activity before and after the recent financial crisis....

Vast Portfolio Selection with Gross-exposure Constraints*

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jianqing; Zhang, Jingjin; Yu, Ke

2012-01-01

We introduce the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. We show that with gross-exposure constraint the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results in Jagannathan and Ma (2003). We also show that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 Fama-French industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000. PMID:23293404

Portfolio optimization retail investor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. А. Kiseleva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article notes that the task of the investor's risk management is to, on the one hand, as much as possible to strive to achieve the criterion of risk level, and on the other hand, in any case not exceed it. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of the optimal ratio of "risk-income" becomes now of particular relevance. This article discusses the different distribution areas of the private investor in order to obtain the maximum profit. The analysis showed us the overall economic and political system of the country, as well as the legislative provision of guarantees to the investor. To obtain sufficient income and reduce losses it is important to maintain the optimum value found between the amount of the investor's risk and capital transactions. Model of optimal placement of funds led to the conclusion about inexpediency strong increase in the diversification of the investment portfolio (more than 10 different types of assets in the portfolio, since it increases the complexity of its practical form, while the portfolio characteristics are improved significantly. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The analysis shows that there is no single best asset portfolio. It is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. Possible combination of the "riskincome" will depend on the objective function. Most diversified and bringing the best return per unit of risk, is a portfolio that contains the most risky assets.

Portfolio optimization and performance evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juhl, Hans Jørn; Christensen, Michael

2013-01-01

Based on an exclusive business-to-business database comprising nearly 1,000 customers, the applicability of portfolio analysis is documented, and it is examined how such an optimization analysis can be used to explore the growth potential of a company. As opposed to any previous analyses, optimal...... customer portfolios are determined, and it is shown how marketing decision-makers can use this information in their marketing strategies to optimize the revenue growth of the company. Finally, our analysis is the first analysis which applies portfolio based methods to measure customer performance......, and it is shown how these performance measures complement the optimization analysis....

Using Electronic Portfolios for Second Language Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cummins, Patricia W.; Davesne, Celine

2009-01-01

Portfolio assessment as developed in Europe presents a learner-empowering alternative to computer-based testing. The authors present the European Language Portfolio (ELP) and its American adaptations, LinguaFolio and the Global Language Portfolio, as tools to be used with the Common European Framework of Reference for languages and the American…

Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature. PMID:26468948

Does health affect portfolio choice?

Science.gov (United States)

Love, David A; Smith, Paul A

2010-12-01

A number of recent studies find that poor health is empirically associated with a safer portfolio allocation. It is difficult to say, however, whether this relationship is truly causal. Both health status and portfolio choice are influenced by unobserved characteristics such as risk attitudes, impatience, information, and motivation, and these unobserved factors, if not adequately controlled for, can induce significant bias in the estimates of asset demand equations. Using the 1992-2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how much of the connection between health and portfolio choice is causal and how much is due to the effects of unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects and correlated random effects models, we find that health does not appear to significantly affect portfolio choice among single households. For married households, we find a small effect (about 2-3 percentage points) from being in the lowest of five self-reported health categories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances.

Science.gov (United States)

Toma, Aida; Leoni-Aubin, Samuela

2015-01-01

The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature.

The type k universal portfolio generated by the f-divergence

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Choon Peng; Seng, Kuang Kee

2017-11-01

The logarithm of the estimated next-day wealth return is approximated by k terms of its Taylor series. The resulting Type k universal portfolio generated by the f -divergence is obtained. An implicit form of the portfolio is also obtained by exploiting the mean-value theorem. An empirical study of the performance of the portfolio is focused on the Type 2 Helmbold universal portfolio. A few generalizations of the Helmbold universal portfolio have recently been studied, namely the reverse Helmbold and the parametric Helmbold portfolios. This new type of portfolio can be regarded a contribution to the inventory of Helmbold related universal portfolios. It is verified experimentally that an investor's wealth can be significantly increased by using the Type 2 Helmbold portfolio in investment.

Model to Estimate Monthly Time Horizons for Application of DEA in Selection of Stock Portfolio and for Maintenance of the Selected Portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Claudio Isaias

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the selecting of stock portfolios, one type of analysis that has shown good results is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. It, however, has been shown to have gaps regarding its estimates of monthly time horizons of data collection for the selection of stock portfolios and of monthly time horizons for the maintenance of a selected portfolio. To better estimate these horizons, this study proposes a model of mathematical programming binary of minimization of square errors. This model is the paper’s main contribution. The model’s results are validated by simulating the estimated annual return indexes of a portfolio that uses both horizons estimated and of other portfolios that do not use these horizons. The simulation shows that portfolios with both horizons estimated have higher indexes, on average 6.99% per year. The hypothesis tests confirm the statistically significant superiority of the results of the proposed mathematical model’s indexes. The model’s indexes are also compared with portfolios that use just one of the horizons estimated; here the indexes of the dual-horizon portfolios outperform the single-horizon portfolios, though with a decrease in percentage of statistically significant superiority.

ALPHA-BETA SEPARATION PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES FOR ISLAMIC FINANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentyn Khokhlov

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical alpha-beta separation model that can be used to create a core-satellite portfolio management strategy that complies with the principles of Islamic finance. Methodology. Core-satellite portfolio construction methodology is used to implement the alpha-beta separation approach, where the core part of the portfolio is managed using the tracking error minimization strategy, and the satellite part of the portfolio is managed using the mean-variance optimization strategy. Results of the portfolio dynamics clearly show that a significant amount of value was created by alpha-beta separation. The typical alpha ranges from 4% to 5.7%. The most aggressive portfolio strategies that allow short positions in the satellite portfolio work best with frequent rebalancing and benefit from the active bets. Smoothing technique that was introduced to decrease the portfolio turnover and stabilize its composition works better when active bets are less efficient, particularly with less frequent rebalancing. The best risk-return combinations are achieved with modest (3% to 10% allocation of the total portfolio to the satellite, and the remaining part (90% to 97% being managed in order to minimize the tracking error. Practical implications. The alpha-beta separation framework suggested in this paper can be used to enhance the portfolio management techniques for the hedge funds that operate under tight restrictions, particularly under the Islamic finance principles. The mathematical models developed in this paper allow practical implementation of the alphabeta separation concept. Originality/value. While the idea of alpha-beta separation existed in hedge fund management before, there was no comprehensive mathematical model under it, so its implementation was based on the ad hoc approach. This paper introduces such a mathematical model and demonstrates how portfolio managers can create value for their clients using it.

Portfolio Assessment: Production and Reduction of Complexity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Tina Bering; Qvortrup, Ane

2015-01-01

Over the last two decades, the education system has witnessed a shift from summative, product-oriented assessment towards formative, process-oriented assessment. Among the different learning and assessment initiatives introduced in the slipstream of this paradigmatic turn, the portfolio seems...... to have become one of the most popular. By re-describing the portfolio from a systems theoretical point of view, this article discusses established expectations of the portfolio in relation to transparency in learning, reflexivity and self-assessment. It shows that the majority of the literature deals...... with what-questions and that the portfolio is expected to handle a number of challenges with regard to the documentation of learning processes and achievements as well as the conditioning of learning activities. Furthermore, is becomes clear that descriptions of how the portfolio works are sparse. Based...

Performance of finite order distribution-generated universal portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Pang, Sook Theng; Liew, How Hui; Chang, Yun Fah

2017-04-01

A Constant Rebalanced Portfolio (CRP) is an investment strategy which reinvests by redistributing wealth equally among a set of stocks. The empirical performance of the distribution-generated universal portfolio strategies are analysed experimentally concerning 10 higher volume stocks from different categories in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The time interval of study is from January 2000 to December 2015, which includes the credit crisis from September 2008 to March 2009. The performance of the finite-order universal portfolio strategies has been shown to be better than Constant Rebalanced Portfolio with some selected parameters of proposed universal portfolios.

Reflection during Portfolio-Based Conversations

Science.gov (United States)

Oosterbaan, Anne E.; van der Schaaf, Marieke F.; Baartman, Liesbeth K. J.; Stokking, Karel M.

2010-01-01

This study aims to explore the relationship between the occurrence of reflection (and non-reflection) and thinking activities (e.g., orientating, selecting, analysing) during portfolio-based conversations. Analysis of 21 transcripts of portfolio-based conversations revealed that 20% of the segments were made up of reflection (content reflection…

ePortfolio & learning styles in Nursing Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kirsten; Helms, Niels Henrik; Pedersen, Birthe D.

2012-01-01

Background Examination of the literature shows both advantages and disadvantages in implementing ePortfolio and learning styles in Nursing Education. The students reflect on nursing practice as well as on their strengths and weaknesses, and reflecting in the portfolio increases self-awareness, pe......Background Examination of the literature shows both advantages and disadvantages in implementing ePortfolio and learning styles in Nursing Education. The students reflect on nursing practice as well as on their strengths and weaknesses, and reflecting in the portfolio increases self...... in clinical settings. Insight into preferred learning style can be an advantage to both students and preceptors in attempt to promote students´ learning potential, but there are quite many different theoretical approaches and definitions of the concept, and reviewers call attention to the risk that teachers...... to intensify the differentiated guidance of students, and developed an ePortfolio which aim to facilitate four learning styles as described by Honey and Mumford. It was tested in a pilot project and now, a qualitative study of how learning is mediated in clinical education through this ePortfolio is passing...

CERN Library and Art@CMS present Artist and Painter Xavier Cortada and CMS Physicist Pete Markowitz

CERN Document Server

CERN Library

2013-01-01

Xavier Cortada is an American artist and painter, and an artist in residence at Florida International University (FIU) College of Architecture and the Arts who also specializes in participatory art projects. His work includes art installations at the Earth’s poles to generate awareness about climate change, child welfare murals in Bolivia and peace murals in Cyprus. Xavier will be in conversation with CMS physicist Pete Markowitz, also from FIU, to discuss the participatory art piece which they developed together. The piece will be showcased in the CMS detector hall on Thursday 11 April during the experiment’s conference week. The piece promises to "engage 300 scientists from around the world in a performance art piece that transforms them into the very subatomic particles they research". It is the first piece by Art@CMS, a new project inspired by the Arts@CERN programme. Discover more about how this new piece was developed and more about Xavier’s ...

Beating the market with small portfolios: Evidence from Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André A.P. Santos

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Optimal portfolios with a restriction on the number of assets, also referred to as cardinality-constrained portfolios, have been receiving attention in the literature due to its popularity among market practitioners and retail investors. In most cases, however, the interest is in proposing efficient optimization methods to solve the problem, with little or no attention to the characteristics of the resulting portfolio such as risk-adjusted performance and turnover. We address this question by implementing a tractable reformulation of the cardinality-constrained version of the minimum variance portfolio. We analyze the out-of-sample performance of cardinality-constrained portfolios according to alternative criteria and check the robustness of the results for portfolios with alternative number of assets and under alternative re-balancing frequencies. Our empirical application for the Brazilian equities market shows that cardinality-constrained minimum variance portfolios with very few assets, e.g. 3 stocks, can deliver statistically lower portfolio risk and higher Sharpe ratios in comparison to the market index. Similar results are obtained for constrained portfolios with 5 and 10 assets and under daily, weekly, and monthly re-balancing frequencies. Our evidence indicates that it is possible to obtain better risk-adjusted performance with fewer securities in the portfolio by using an improved allocation scheme.

Construction of uncertainty sets for portfolio selection problems

OpenAIRE

Wiechers, Christof

2011-01-01

While modern portfolio theory grounds on the trade-off between portfolio return and portfolio variance to determine the optimal investment decision, postmodern portfolio theory uses downside risk measures instead of the variance. Prominent examples are given by the risk measures Value-at-Risk and its coherent extension, Conditional Value-at-Risk. When avoiding distributional assumptions on the process that generates the risky assets' returns, historical return data or expert knowledge remain ...

Formal Method of Description Supporting Portfolio Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Morimoto, Yasuhiko; Ueno, Maomi; Kikukawa, Isao; Yokoyama, Setsuo; Miyadera, Youzou

2006-01-01

Teachers need to assess learner portfolios in the field of education. However, they need support in the process of designing and practicing what kind of portfolios are to be assessed. To solve the problem, a formal method of describing the relations between the lesson forms and portfolios that need to be collected and the relations between…

7 CFR 4290.760 - How a change in size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the RBIC and the Portfolio Concern.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How a change in size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the RBIC and the Portfolio Concern. 4290.760 Section 4290.760 Agriculture Regulations of... size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the RBIC and the Portfolio Concern. (a) Effect on RBIC...

Making practice transparent through e-portfolio.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Sarah M

2013-12-01

Midwives are required to maintain a professional portfolio as part of their statutory requirements. Some midwives are using open social networking tools and processes to develop an e-portfolio. However, confidentiality of patient and client data and professional reputation have to be taken into consideration when using online public spaces for reflection. There is little evidence about how midwives use social networking tools for ongoing learning. It is uncertain how reflecting in an e-portfolio with an audience impacts on learning outcomes. This paper investigates ways in which reflective midwifery practice be carried out using e-portfolio in open, social networking platforms using collaborative processes. Using an auto-ethnographic approach I explored my e-portfolio and selected posts that had attracted six or more comments. I used thematic analysis to identify themes within the textual conversations in the posts and responses posted by readers. The analysis identified that my collaborative e-portfolio had four themes: to provide commentary and discuss issues; to reflect and process learning; to seek advice, brainstorm and process ideas for practice, projects and research, and provide evidence of professional development. E-portfolio using open social networking tools and processes is a viable option for midwives because it facilitates collaborative reflection and shared learning. However, my experience shows that concerns about what people think, and client confidentiality does impact on the nature of open reflection and learning outcomes. I conclude this paper with a framework for managing midwifery statutory obligations using online public spaces and social networking tools. Copyright © 2013 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the energy portfolio for electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez S, J. R.; Alonso V, G.; Esquivel E, J.

2016-09-01

The planning of electricity generation systems considers several factors that must be taken into account in order to design systems that are economical, reliable and sustainable. For this purpose, the Financial Portfolio Theory is applicable to the energy portfolio or the diversification of electricity generation technologies, such as is the combined cycle, wind, thermoelectric and nuclear. This paper presents an application of the Portfolio Theory to the national energy system, based on the total generation costs for each technology, which allows determining the average variance portfolio and the respective share of each of the electricity generation technologies considered, obtaining a portfolio of electricity generation with the maximum possible return for the risk taken in the investments. This paper describes the basic aspects of the Portfolio Theory and its methodology, in which matrices are implemented for the solution of the resulting Lagrange system. (Author)

PERHITUNGAN VaR PORTOFOLIO SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN DATA HISTORIS DAN DATA SIMULASI MONTE CARLO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WAYAN ARTHINI

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Value at Risk (VaR is the maximum potential loss on a portfolio based on the probability at a certain time.  In this research, portfolio VaR values calculated from historical data and Monte Carlo simulation data. Historical data is processed so as to obtain stock returns, variance, correlation coefficient, and variance-covariance matrix, then the method of Markowitz sought proportion of each stock fund, and portfolio risk and return portfolio. The data was then simulated by Monte Carlo simulation, Exact Monte Carlo Simulation and Expected Monte Carlo Simulation. Exact Monte Carlo simulation have same returns and standard deviation  with historical data, while the Expected Monte Carlo Simulation satistic calculation similar to historical data. The results of this research is the portfolio VaR  with time horizon T=1, T=10, T=22 and the confidence level of 95 %, values obtained VaR between historical data and Monte Carlo simulation data with the method exact and expected. Value of VaR from both Monte Carlo simulation is greater than VaR historical data.

Portfolio Assessment: A Handbook for Educators. Assessment Bookshelf Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, James, Ed.; Collins, Angelo, Ed.

This guide contains practical steps for integrating portfolios into any K-12 classroom and tips for effective classroom management of portfolios. It also contains actual examples of portfolios in action in a variety of subject areas. The chapters are: (1) "Starting Out: Designing Your Portfolio" (James Barton and Angelo Collins); (2) "Preparing…

Professionalism, Portfolios and the Development of School Leaders.

Science.gov (United States)

Wildy, Helen; Wallace, John

1998-01-01

Describes how two reforms--portfolio culture and teacher professionalism--converge in a systemwide program for school leaders' professional development. Investigates use of portfolios to help (Australian) principals, deputy principals, and department heads improve their performance and accountability. Participants used portfolios as evidence of…

Selection of a portfolio of R & D projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Casault, Sébastien; Groen, Arend J.; Linton, J.D.; Linton, Jonathan; Link, A.N.; Vonortas, N.S.

2013-01-01

While portfolios of research are increasingly discussed, a portfolio perspective is infrequently taken when selecting two or more projects. Consequently, this chapter considers the current state of knowledge in project and portfolio selection, identifies why we can and cannot apply knowledge from

ALPHA-BETA SEPARATION PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES FOR ISLAMIC FINANCE

OpenAIRE

Valentyn Khokhlov

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical alpha-beta separation model that can be used to create a core-satellite portfolio management strategy that complies with the principles of Islamic finance. Methodology. Core-satellite portfolio construction methodology is used to implement the alpha-beta separation approach, where the core part of the portfolio is managed using the tracking error minimization strategy, and the satellite part of the portfolio is managed using the mean-vari...

Optimal diversification of the securities portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Валентина Михайловна Андриенко

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with problems of the theory and methods of forming the optimal portfolio of financial markets. The analytical review of methods in their historical development is given. Recommendations on the use of a particular method depends on the specific conditions are formulated. The classical and alternative methods are considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the investment portfolio of derivative securities in B/S-market modelThe article deals with problems of the theory and methods of forming the optimal portfolio of financial markets. The analytical review of methods in their historical development is given. Recommendations on the use of a particular method depends on the specific conditions are formulated. The classical and alternative methods are considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the investment portfolio of derivative securities in -market model

A Decision Support Tool For Thrift Savings Plan Investors

Science.gov (United States)

2004-03-01

34:1797-1855 (December 1996). Canner, Niko and Gregory N. Mankiw , “An Asset Allocation Puzzle,” American Economic Review, 87:181-192 (March 1997... Economics in 1990 for his seminal research, Markowitz was the first researcher to analyze the overall risk of a portfolio of securities instead of the...bonds and 40% stocks, then this ratio should remain constant regardless of the total percentage of dollars dedicated to risky assets (Canner and Mankiw

Benefits of International Diversification: The Case of Asian Emerging Equity Markets

OpenAIRE

Apong, Matusin

2005-01-01

Abstract The main purpose of this study is to examine whether, from the Brunei Investment Agency's perspective, the benefits of international diversification gain exist in equity investment in emerging markets in Asia. The quantitative research that was used is based on Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). This method utilized data from December 1998 to July 2005 for sixteen indices of developed and emerging countries. The countries selected for the study were grouped into devel...

Mean-Variance Analysis in a Multiperiod Setting

OpenAIRE

Frauendorfer, Karl; Siede, Heiko

1997-01-01

Similar to the classical Markowitz approach it is possible to apply a mean-variance criterion to a multiperiod setting to obtain efficient portfolios. To represent the stochastic dynamic characteristics necessary for modelling returns a process of asset returns is discretized with respect to time and space and summarized in a scenario tree. The resulting optimization problem is solved by means of stochastic multistage programming. The optimal solutions show equivalent structural properties as...

Technology Audit: Assessment of Innovative Portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurushina Viktoria

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the features of the technological audit performing in the companies of oil and gas sector of Russian economy. To measure the innovations quality level the scale was developed based on the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and the theory of technological structures. Figures of the innovations quantity by levels, volume and quality of the innovative portfolio are offered for assessment the innovative portfolio quality. The method was tested on an example of oil and gas transporting enterprises. The results of the comparative analysis of innovative portfolio are shown.

Validity of portfolio assessment: which qualities determine ratings?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driessen, E.W.; Overeem, K.; Tartwijk, J. van; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der; Muijtjens, A.M.M.

2006-01-01

The portfolio is becoming increasingly accepted as a valuable tool for learning and assessment. The validity of portfolio assessment, however, may suffer from bias due to irrelevant qualities, such as lay-out and writing style. We examined the possible effects of such qualities in a portfolio

Portfolio at Tertiary Level – Lifelong Learning Tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galina Kavaliauskienė

2011-04-01

Full Text Available The use of electronic language portfolios has been preferable to the use of common paper portfolios for ease of application – there is no need for accumulating a number of files of written papers, which solves the problem of storing space and, to some extent, helps reduce students’ and teachers’ workload.The study investigated learners’ perceptions of employing electronic language portfolios for conducting various assignments in English for Specific Purposes. The research involved university students of different specializations. Learners’ experience of employing portfolios and opinions on their benefits for improving language skills have been analyzed and statistically treated using SPSS software. The results show that students are positive about application of electronic portfolios in ESP classes. The use of online portfolios for various assignments helps teachers foster students’ learning, encourages critical thinking, develops creativity, motivates learners to use digital technology, encourages collaboration of learners, and in the long run, leads to lifelong learning.

Portfolios in Saudi medical colleges. Why and how?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadia M. Fida

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Over recent decades, the use of portfolios in medical education has evolved, and is being applied in undergraduate and postgraduate programs worldwide. Portfolios, as a learning process and method of documenting and assessing learning, is supported as a valuable tool by adult learning theories that stress the need for learners to be self-directed and to engage in experiential learning. Thoughtfully implemented, a portfolio provides learning experiences unequaled by any single learning tool. The credibility (validity and dependability (reliability of assessment through portfolios have been questioned owing to its subjective nature; however, methods to safeguard these features have been described in the literature. This paper discusses some of this literature, with particular attention to the role of portfolios in relation to self-reflective learning, provides an overview of current use of portfolios in undergraduate medical education in Saudi Arabia, and proposes research-based guidelines for its implementation and other similar contexts.

The Shapley decomposition for portfolio risk

OpenAIRE

Stéphane Mussard; Virginie Terraza

2006-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide an application of the Shapley Value to decompose financial portfolio risk. Decomposing the sample covariance risk measure yields relative measures, which enable securities of a portfolio to be classified according to risk scales.

Automatic Trading Agent. RMT Based Portfolio Theory and Portfolio Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Snarska, M.; Krzych, J.

2006-11-01

Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, arosen from lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids a perfect prediction of future price changes. Despite of many advantages this tool is not known and not widely used among investors on Warsaw Stock Exchange. The main reason for abandoning this method is a high level of complexity and immense calculations. The aim of this paper is to introduce an automatic decision-making system, which allows a single investor to use complex methods of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The key tool in MPT is an analysis of an empirical covariance matrix. This matrix, obtained from historical data, biased by such a high amount of statistical uncertainty, that it can be seen as random. By bringing into practice the ideas of Random Matrix Theory (RMT), the noise is removed or significantly reduced, so the future risk and return are better estimated and controlled. These concepts are applied to the Warsaw Stock Exchange Simulator {http://gra.onet.pl}. The result of the simulation is 18% level of gains in comparison with respective 10% loss of the Warsaw Stock Exchange main index WIG.

Comparative Analysis of Investment Funds Stocks-based Portfolios and BET Stocks-based Portfolios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion STANCU

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we intend to find out what is the best choice of stocks-based portfolio. The major goal is to find whether is more efficient to invest the whole capital in a single sector, like financial investments, or to create a diversified portfolio, taking into account assets from various economic sectors. Capital allocation will be based on the concept of cointegration. We have chosen this method because it can be applied on non-stationary data series, and, besides, it has the advantage of using the whole set of information provided by the financial assets. Another goal is to study how the portfolio structure adjusts if a shock occurs during the period under analysis so that to preserve a certain return or minimize a potential loss. The study will result in an investment solution in the Romanian capital market, even in the context of financial crisis.

Portfolio Development in Teacher Education and Educational Leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Biddle, James

The Ohio Consortium for Portfolio Development was established in 1988 as an interinstitutional research effort to integrate portfolio development into teacher education. A subphase focused on portfolio use by entry year teachers in a metropolitan school system. Personnel at Wright State University, Central State University, and the University of…

The true invariant of an arbitrage free portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Anatoly B.

2003-03-01

It is shown that the arbitrage free portfolio paradigm being applied to a portfolio with an arbitrary number of shares N allows for the extended solution in which the option price F depends on N. However the resulting stock hedging expense Q= MF (where M is the number of options in the portfolio) does not depend on whether N is treated as an independent variable or as a parameter. Therefore the stock hedging expense is the true invariant of the arbitrage free portfolio paradigm.

Investment portfolio management from cybernetic point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Marchev, Angel, Jr.; Marchev, Angel

2013-12-01

The theory of investment portfolios is a well defined component of financial science. While sound in principle, it faces some setbacks in its real-world implementation. In this paper the authors propose a reformulation of the investment portfolio problem as a cybernetic system where the Investor is the controlling system and the portfolio is the controlled system. Also the portfolio controlling process should be dissected in several ordered phases, so that each phase is represented as a subsystem within the structure of the controlling system Investor.

E-PORTFOLIO: BEYOND ASSESSMENT FOR ENGLISH STUDENT TEACHER (a Preliminary Study of E-portfolio Implementation in Micro Teaching Class)

OpenAIRE

Sarlita D. Matra

2017-01-01

Teacher preparation programs across the country are showing an increased interest in the use of electronic portfolios as valuable authentic assessment tools that can document students‘ abilities and growth related to specific standards. The concept of developing e-portfolios is based on the fact that the reflective practice of creating portfolios enables students to document and track their learning; develop an integrated, coherent picture of their learning experiences; and enhanc...

Implementing portfolio in postgraduate general practice training. Benefits and recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Alotaibi, Fawaz S

2012-10-01

This paper presents a review to explore the literature focusing on portfolio in postgraduate general practice (GP) training, and to examine the impact of implementation of portfolio on learning process, as well as proposing recommendations for its implementation in postgraduate GP training. An electronic search was carried out on several databases for studies addressing portfolio in postgraduate GP training. Six articles were included to address specifically the effectiveness of portfolio in postgraduate GP training. Five of them described successful experiences of portfolio-based learning implementation. Only one article addressed portfolio-based assessment in postgraduate GP training. The existing evidence provides various benefits of professional portfolio-based learning. It does appear to have advantages of stimulating reflective learning, promoting proactive learning, and bridging the hospital experiences of the learners to GP. Moreover, the challenges to implementation of portfolio-based learning are often based on orientation and training of stakeholders.

Asset Allocation and Optimal Contract for Delegated Portfolio Management

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jingjun; Liang, Jianfeng

This article studies the portfolio selection and the contracting problems between an individual investor and a professional portfolio manager in a discrete-time principal-agent framework. Portfolio selection and optimal contracts are obtained in closed form. The optimal contract was composed with the fixed fee, the cost, and the fraction of excess expected return. The optimal portfolio is similar to the classical two-fund separation theorem.

Students' reflections in a portfolio pilot: highlighting professional issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Haffling, Ann-Christin; Beckman, Anders; Pahlmblad, Annika; Edgren, Gudrun

2010-01-01

Portfolios are highlighted as potential assessment tools for professional competence. Although students' self-reflections are considered to be central in the portfolio, the content of reflections in practice-based portfolios is seldom analysed. To investigate whether students' reflections include sufficient dimensions of professional competence, notwithstanding a standardized portfolio format, and to evaluate students' satisfaction with the portfolio. Thirty-five voluntary final-year medical students piloted a standardized portfolio in a general practice (GP) attachment at Lund University, Sweden. Students' portfolio reflections were based upon documentary evidence from practice, and aimed to demonstrate students' learning. The reflections were qualitatively analysed, using a framework approach. Students' evaluations of the portfolio were subjected to quantitative and qualitative analysis. Among professional issues, an integration of cognitive, affective and practical dimensions in clinical practice was provided by students' reflections. The findings suggested an emphasis on affective issues, particularly on self-awareness of feelings, attitudes and concerns. In addition, ethical problems, clinical reasoning strategies and future communication skills training were subjects of several reflective commentaries. Students' reflections on their consultation skills demonstrated their endeavour to achieve structure in the medical interview by negotiation of an agenda for the consultation, keeping the interview on track, and using internal summarizing. The importance of active listening and exploration of patient's perspective was also emphasized. In students' case summaries, illustrating characteristic attributes of GP, the dominating theme was 'patient-centred care', including the patient-doctor relationship, holistic modelling and longitudinal continuity. Students were satisfied with the portfolio, but improved instructions were needed. A standardized portfolio in a

Portfolios with nonlinear constraints and spin glasses

Science.gov (United States)

Gábor, Adrienn; Kondor, I.

1999-12-01

In a recent paper Galluccio, Bouchaud and Potters demonstrated that a certain portfolio problem with a nonlinear constraint maps exactly onto finding the ground states of a long-range spin glass, with the concomitant nonuniqueness and instability of the optimal portfolios. Here we put forward geometric arguments that lead to qualitatively similar conclusions, without recourse to the methods of spin glass theory, and give two more examples of portfolio problems with convex nonlinear constraints.

R functions development for stockPortfolio package

OpenAIRE

Luo, Rui

2013-01-01

Modern portfolio theory is a statistical framework to allocate investment assets properly, with the aim of reducing risk by diversification. In the past decades, a variety of index and group models (with different covariance assumption) have been proposed to optimize the portfolio, including Single Index Model, Constant Correlation Model, Multi-Group Model, and Multi-Index Model. An R package "stockPortfolio" is developed by Drs. Christou and Diez, and fully implemented Single Index Model, Co...

Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

2000-01-01

textabstractProspect theory and loss aversion play a dominant role in behavioral finance. In this paper we derive closed-form solutions for optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion. When confronted with gains a loss averse investor behaves similar to a portfolio insurer. When confronted with

Random matrix theory filters and currency portfolio optimisation

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, J.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

2010-04-01

Random matrix theory (RMT) filters have recently been shown to improve the optimisation of financial portfolios. This paper studies the effect of three RMT filters on realised portfolio risk, using bootstrap analysis and out-of-sample testing. We considered the case of a foreign exchange and commodity portfolio, weighted towards foreign exchange, and consisting of 39 assets. This was intended to test the limits of RMT filtering, which is more obviously applicable to portfolios with larger numbers of assets. We considered both equally and exponentially weighted covariance matrices, and observed that, despite the small number of assets involved, RMT filters reduced risk in a way that was consistent with a much larger S&P 500 portfolio. The exponential weightings indicated showed good consistency with the value suggested by Riskmetrics, in contrast to previous results involving stocks. This decay factor, along with the low number of past moves preferred in the filtered, equally weighted case, displayed a trend towards models which were reactive to recent market changes. On testing portfolios with fewer assets, RMT filtering provided less or no overall risk reduction. In particular, no long term out-of-sample risk reduction was observed for a portfolio consisting of 15 major currencies and commodities.

RISK MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO BY FUTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Kerimov Alexandr

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers the problem of the dynamic risk management of the investment portfolio using future con- tracts. The management starts with the concept of effective inhomogeneous portfolios, which contain futures together with underlying asserts. The effective portfolios are defined as the ones of the minimal dispersion with the expected return greater or equal to the specified value. Risk is measured by the probability of losing of a certain part of the portfolio value. The control parameters are the number of futures for each asset of portfolio, which is defined from the condition of effec- tiveness of portfolio and risk acceptability on each step.The effective adaptive strategies of portfolio risk management together with comparative analysis on a concrete example are presented. The proposed approach provides the forecast correction of the expected income and its variance for the assets with the emergence of new data. The financial time series are determined by volatility clustering, i.e. relative or absolute price changes tend to keep high or low magnitude for some time, with the result that clusters are created - periods of high or low volatility. Then adaptive estimate of correlational relationships between asset prices are essential because the degree of correlational relationship also changes in time. So the correlation of future and spot price changes considerably increases while approaching to performance of contracts. For taking into account of data instability of dispersion and correlation simple methods of volatility forecasting and correlation of relative changes of price data based on exponential smoothing are implemented.

Portfolio analysis of layered security measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Hora, Stephen C; Rosoff, Heather

2015-03-01

Layered defenses are necessary for protecting the public from terrorist attacks. Designing a system of such defensive measures requires consideration of the interaction of these countermeasures. In this article, we present an analysis of a layered security system within the lower Manhattan area. It shows how portfolios of security measures can be evaluated through portfolio decision analysis. Consideration is given to the total benefits and costs of the system. Portfolio diagrams are created that help communicate alternatives among stakeholders who have differing views on the tradeoffs between security and economic activity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Does asymmetric correlation affect portfolio optimization?

Science.gov (United States)

Fryd, Lukas

2017-07-01

The classical portfolio optimization problem does not assume asymmetric behavior of relationship among asset returns. The existence of asymmetric response in correlation on the bad news could be important information in portfolio optimization. The paper applies Dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) and his asymmetric version (ADCC) to propose asymmetric behavior of conditional correlation. We analyse asymmetric correlation among S&P index, bonds index and spot gold price before mortgage crisis in 2008. We evaluate forecast ability of the models during and after mortgage crisis and demonstrate the impact of asymmetric correlation on the reduction of portfolio variance.

On the economic risk capital of portfolio insurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Werner Hürlimann

2004-09-01

Full Text Available A formula for the conditional value-at-risk of classical portfolio insurance is derived and shown to be constant for sufficiently small loss probabilities. As illustrations, we discuss portfolio insurance for an equity market index using empirical data, and analyze the more general multivariate situation of a portfolio of risky assets.

The electricity portfolio simulation model (EPSim) technical description.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drennen, Thomas E.; Klotz, Richard (Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY)

2005-09-01

Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 to 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy's (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.

Portfolios for Majors in Professional Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Killingsworth, M. Jimmie; Sanders, Scott P.

1987-01-01

Suggests general principles for developing assignments where students prepare portfolios that reveal their overall communication skills in addition to the usual job search tools. Emphasizes that students should concentrate on including works in the portfolio with the criteria of quality, variety, professionalism, and maturity in mind. (SKC)

Portfolio Diversification Effects of Downside Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

N. Hyung (Namwon); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

2004-01-01

textabstractRisk managers use portfolios to diversify away the un-priced risk of individual securities. In this paper we compare the benefits of portfolio diversification for downside risk in case returns are normally distributed with the case fat tailed distributed returns. The downside risk of a

Optimal wind power deployment in Europe. A portfolio approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, Fabien; Hiroux, Celine; Saguan, Marcelo

2010-01-01

Geographic diversification of wind farms can smooth out the fluctuations in wind power generation and reduce the associated system balancing and reliability costs. The paper uses historical wind production data from five European countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, and Spain) and applies the Mean-Variance Portfolio theory to identify cross-country portfolios that minimise the total variance of wind production for a given level of production. Theoretical unconstrained portfolios show that countries (Spain and Denmark) with the best wind resource or whose size contributes to smoothing out the country output variability dominate optimal portfolios. The methodology is then elaborated to derive optimal constrained portfolios taking into account national wind resource potential and transmission constraints and compare them with the projected portfolios for 2020. Such constraints limit the theoretical potential efficiency gains from geographical diversification, but there is still considerable room to improve performance from actual or projected portfolios. These results highlight the need for more cross-border interconnection capacity, for greater coordination of European renewable support policies, and for renewable support mechanisms and electricity market designs providing locational incentives. Under these conditions, a mechanism for renewables credits trading could help aligning wind power portfolios with the theoretically efficient geographic dispersion. (author)

Power from Perspective: Potential future United States energy portfolios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonn, Bruce; Healy, K.C.; Gibson, Amy; Ashish, Ashutosh; Cody, Preston; Beres, Drew; Lulla, Sam; Mazur, Jim; Ritter, A.J.

2009-01-01

This paper presents United States energy portfolios for the year 2030, developed from seven different Perspectives. The Perspectives are characterized by different weights placed on fourteen defining values (e.g., cost, social acceptance). The portfolios were constructed to achieve three primary goals, energy independence, energy security, and greenhouse gas reductions. The portfolios are also evaluated over a comprehensive set of secondary criteria (e.g., economic growth, technical feasibility). It is found that very different portfolios based on very different defining values can achieve the three primary goals. Commonalities among the portfolios include reliance upon cellulosic ethanol, nuclear power, and energy efficiency to meet year 2030 energy demands. It is concluded that the US energy portfolio must be diverse and to achieve national energy goals will require an explicit statement of goals, a strong role for government, and coordinated action across society

On the Teaching of Portfolio Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Biederman, Daniel K.

1992-01-01

Demonstrates how a simple portfolio problem expressed explicitly as an expected utility maximization problem can be used to instruct students in portfolio theory. Discusses risk aversion, decision making under uncertainty, and the limitations of the traditional mean variance approach. Suggests students may develop a greater appreciation of general…

Low volatility sector-based portfolios: a South African case

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Black pointed out that when investors are restricted from using leverage or bor- ..... takes into account the correlation between the sectors in a portfolio. ..... 3The information ratio of a portfolio is the active premium (portfolio annualised return ...

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2005-01-01

Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

Log-Optimal Portfolio Selection Using the Blackwell Approachability Theorem

OpenAIRE

V'yugin, Vladimir

2014-01-01

We present a method for constructing the log-optimal portfolio using the well-calibrated forecasts of market values. Dawid's notion of calibration and the Blackwell approachability theorem are used for computing well-calibrated forecasts. We select a portfolio using this "artificial" probability distribution of market values. Our portfolio performs asymptotically at least as well as any stationary portfolio that redistributes the investment at each round using a continuous function of side in...

Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

2010-01-01

We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

2010-09-01

We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

Agile Project Portfolio Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper Rank; Riis, Jens Ove; Mikkelsen, Hans

2005-01-01

This paper will provide a preliminary introduction to the application of Agile Thinking in management of project portfolio and company development. At any point in time, companies have a crowd of development initiatives spread around the organisation and managed at different levels...... in the managerial hierarchy. They compete for resources and managerial attention, and they often take too long time - and some do not survive in the rapid changing context. Top man¬agers ask for speed, flexibility and effectiveness in the portfolio of development activities (projects). But which competencies...

Natural gas contracts in efficient portfolios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sutherland, R.J.

1994-12-01

This report addresses the {open_quotes}contracts portfolio{close_quotes} issue of natural gas contracts in support of the Domestic Natural Gas and Oil Initiative (DGOI) published by the U.S. Department of Energy in 1994. The analysis is a result of a collaborative effort with the Public Service Commission of the State of Maryland to consider {open_quotes}reforms that enhance the industry`s competitiveness{close_quotes}. The initial focus of our collaborative effort was on gas purchasing and contract portfolios; however, it became apparent that efficient contracting to purchase and use gas requires a broader consideration of regulatory reform. Efficient portfolios are obtained when the holder of the portfolio is affected by and is responsible for the performance of the portfolio. Natural gas distribution companies may prefer a diversity of contracts, but the efficient use of gas requires that the local distribution company be held accountable for its own purchases. Ultimate customers are affected by their own portfolios, which they manage efficiently by making their own choices. The objectives of the DGOI, particularly the efficient use of gas, can be achieved when customers have access to suppliers of gas and energy services under an improved regulatory framework. The evolution of the natural gas market during the last 15 years is described to account for the changing preferences toward gas contracts. Long-term contracts for natural gas were prevalent before the early 1980s, primarily because gas producers had few options other than to sell to a single pipeline company, and this pipeline company, in turn, was the only seller to a gas distribution company.

Learning Styles and e-portfolio in Nursing Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kirsten; Pedersen, Birthe D.; Helms, Niels Henrik

Purpose of the study Research from UK and USA indicates that an e-portfolio facilitates a stronger connection between theoretical and clinical studies in Nursing Education. It helps students reflect over practice and their own skills. Yet other results show that an e-portfolio is a time consumer....... Thus, the aim of this project is to examine the effects of an e-portfolio on nursing students learning of patients with chronic illness during their clinical practice, and to investigate if it makes any difference in facilitating four learning styles: the activist, the reflector, the theorist...... through observations in clinical settings, narrative interviews, and print-outs from the students e-portfolio. Findings So far a pilot project with a questionnaire shows that 84% of the students and nurses reported that the e-portfolio has a positive effect on students learning in clinical settings...

An Extensive Evaluation of Portfolio Approaches for Constraint Satisfaction Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Amadini

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the context of Constraint Programming, a portfolio approach exploits the complementary strengths of a portfolio of different constraint solvers. The goal is to predict and run the best solver(s of the portfolio for solving a new, unseen problem. In this work we reproduce, simulate, and evaluate the performance of different portfolio approaches on extensive benchmarks of Constraint Satisfaction Problems. Empirical results clearly show the benefits of portfolio solvers in terms of both solved instances and solving time.

IT Portfolio Selection and IT Synergy

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Woo Je

2010-01-01

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The primary objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to provide a methodological framework of IT (Information Technology) portfolio management, and (2) to identify the effect of IT synergy on IT portfolio selection of a firm. The first chapter presents a methodological framework for IT project…

Portfolio Optimization in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Mrinal K.; Goswami, Anindya; Kumar, Suresh K.

2009-01-01

We address a portfolio optimization problem in a semi-Markov modulated market. We study both the terminal expected utility optimization on finite time horizon and the risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on finite and infinite time horizon. We obtain optimal portfolios in relevant cases. A numerical procedure is also developed to compute the optimal expected terminal utility for finite horizon problem

Student Chemical Engineering Reflective ePortfolios--ChE Student Perceptions of Learning from Reflective ePortfolio Creation

Science.gov (United States)

Cherrstrom, Catherine A.; Raisor, Cindy; Fowler, Debra

2015-01-01

Engineering educators and employers value and prioritize communication skills, but developing and assessing such skills in engineering programs is challenging. Reflective ePortfolios provide opportunities to enhance communication skills. The purpose of this three-­year qualitative case study was to investigate the use of reflective ePortfolios in…

Digital portfolio for learning: A new communication channel for education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judit Coromina

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The Catalonian Government has the intention of introducing the digital portfolio before 2017, an initiative related to new approaches for learning. Taking in consideration the increasing interest for digital portfolio as a new communication channel for education, the article aims are: on the one hand to describe how the digital portfolio works and on the other hand, to identify a list of criteria that should be useful for educative centers to select the best application to create the digital portfolio according to their needs.Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, a theoretical framework for portfolio functioning is described. After, applications to support the digital portfolio are classified. Next, a requirement analysis on an ideal application to support the portfolio is made, according to those phases for the portfolio creation identified in the theoretical framework. Lastly, a list of criteria is established to select the application for creating the digital portfolio.Findings and Originality/value: The article contributes to structure the portfolio creation process in some stages and phases in a wider way that it is described in the literature. In addition, a list of criteria is defined to help educative centers to select the application for managing the portfolio that fits better with their objectives. These criteria have been obtained with an exhaustive methodology.Research limitations/implications: In order to put in practice the identified criteria it is proposed to complete the multi-criteria decision model in a new study. It should include processes to weigh criteria and define normalizations. Afterwards it would be able to analyze the value of the model studying the satisfaction for using it by a sample of educative centers.Practical implications: The list of criteria identified should facilitate the selection of the more adequate application to create the learning portfolio to the educative centers, according to their

A Risk-Sensitive Portfolio Optimization Problem with Fixed Incomes Securities

OpenAIRE

Goel, Mayank; Kumar, K. Suresh

2007-01-01

We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.

Portfolio use and practices in US colleges and schools of pharmacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Skrabal, Maryann Z; Turner, Paul D; Jones, Rhonda M; Tilleman, Jennifer A; Coover, Kelli L

2012-04-10

To identify the prevalence of portfolio use in US pharmacy programs, common components of portfolios, and advantages of and limitations to using portfolios. A cross-sectional electronic survey instrument was sent to experiential coordinators at US colleges and schools of pharmacy to collect data on portfolio content, methods, training and resource requirements, and benefits and challenges of portfolio use. Most colleges and schools of pharmacy (61.8%) use portfolios in experiential courses and the majority (67.1%) formally assess them, but there is wide variation regarding content and assessment. The majority of respondents used student portfolios as a formative evaluation primarily in the experiential curriculum. Although most colleges and schools of pharmacy have a portfolio system in place, few are using them to fulfill accreditation requirements. Colleges and schools need to carefully examine the intended purpose of their portfolio system and follow-through with implementation and maintenance of a system that meets their goals.

Portfolio selection between rational and behavioral theories emergent markets case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bouri Abdelfatteh

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of Portfolio Choice under the investors, professionals and academics’ perception. We introduce an approach based on cognitive mapping technique with a series of semi-directive interviews. Among a sample of 30 Tunisian individuals, we propose tow different frameworks: a mean-variance framework and a behavioral framework. Each framework is oriented to capture the effect of some concepts as proposed by the mean-variance portfolio theory and the behavioral portfolio theory on the portfolio choice decision. The originality of this research paper is guaranteed since it traits the behavioral portfolio choice in emergent markets. In the best of our knowledge this is the first study in the Tunisian context that explores such area of research. Ours results show that the Tunisian investors behave as it prescribed by the behavioral portfolio theory. They use some concepts proposed by the rational mean-variance theory of portfolio choice but they are affected by their emotions and some others cognitive bias when constructing and managing they portfolio of assets.

Twelve tips for successful e-tutoring using electronic portfolios.

Science.gov (United States)

Deketelaere, Ann; Degryse, Jan; De Munter, Agnes; De Leyn, Paul

2009-06-01

E-tutoring by means of a digital portfolio offers personal guidance in a context in which regular face-to-face contact between supervisor and student is difficult. However, implementing e-tutoring in practice is not always straightforward. This article investigates the conditions for successful e-tutoring of electronic portfolios. A combination of three methods is used: our own experience with e-tutoring, interviews with 14 tutors using an e-portfolio and the answers on questionnaires by 107 students. We present 12 tips to increase the chances of successful e-tutoring when using electronic portfolios. E-tutoring by means of electronic portfolios can be a feasible alternative in contexts in which face-to-face tutoring is difficult.

SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book 2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solar Energy Technologies Office

2014-05-01

The 2014 SunShot Initiative Portfolio Book outlines the progress towards the goals outlined in the SunShot Vision Study. Contents include overviews of each of SunShot’s five subprogram areas, as well as a description of every active project in the SunShot’s project portfolio as of May 2014.

Guidelines for Good Evaluation Practice with the ACUMEN portfolio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wildgaard, Lorna Elizabeth

2014-01-01

This document gives guidelines for using the ACUMEN Portfolio to evaluate academic researchers. The ACUMEN Portfolio is a way for Portfolio owners to highlight their achievements and to present themselves in the most positive way. It supplements the traditional CV because it highlights key achiev...

Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

2017-01-01

A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

Fault Tolerant Distributed Portfolio Optimization in Smart Grids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juelsgaard, Morten; Wisniewski, Rafal; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

2014-01-01

optimization scheme for power balancing, where communication is allowed only between units that are linked in the graph. We include consumers with controllable consumption as an active part of the portfolio. We show that a suboptimal, but arbitrarily good power balancing can be obtained in an uncoordinated......, distributed optimization framework, and argue that the scheme will work even if the computation time is limited. We further show that our approach can tolerate changes in the portfolio, in the sense that increasing or reducing the number of units in the portfolio requires only local updates. This ensures......This work considers a portfolio of units for electrical power production and the problem of utilizing it to maintain power balance in the electrical grid. We treat the portfolio as a graph in which the nodes are distributed generators and the links are communication paths. We present a distributed...

Real Time Investments with Adequate Portfolio Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Kvietkauskienė

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to identify investment decision makingschemes using the adequate portfolio model. This approach can be employed to project investment in stocks, using the opportunities offered by the markets and investor intelligence. It was decided to use adequate portfolio theory for investment decision making, simulation of financial markets, and optimisation of utility function. The main conclusion of article suggests investigating return on individual portfolio level. Real investment is a way to make sure of the soundness of applicable strategies.

Quantitative Portfolio Optimization Techniques Applied to the Brazilian Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Alves Portela Santos

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we assess the out-of-sample performance of two alternative quantitative portfolio optimization techniques - mean-variance and minimum variance optimization – and compare their performance with respect to a naive 1/N (or equally-weighted portfolio and also to the market portfolio given by the Ibovespa. We focus on short selling-constrained portfolios and consider alternative estimators for the covariance matrices: sample covariance matrix, RiskMetrics, and three covariance estimators proposed by Ledoit and Wolf (2003, Ledoit and Wolf (2004a and Ledoit and Wolf (2004b. Taking into account alternative portfolio re-balancing frequencies, we compute out-of-sample performance statistics which indicate that the quantitative approaches delivered improved results in terms of lower portfolio volatility and better risk-adjusted returns. Moreover, the use of more sophisticated estimators for the covariance matrix generated optimal portfolios with lower turnover over time.

Portfolio optimization by using linear programing models based on genetic algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Lesmana, E.; Putra, A. S.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we discussed the investment portfolio optimization using linear programming model based on genetic algorithms. It is assumed that the portfolio risk is measured by absolute standard deviation, and each investor has a risk tolerance on the investment portfolio. To complete the investment portfolio optimization problem, the issue is arranged into a linear programming model. Furthermore, determination of the optimum solution for linear programming is done by using a genetic algorithm. As a numerical illustration, we analyze some of the stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, it is shown that the portfolio optimization performed by genetic algorithm approach produces more optimal efficient portfolio, compared to the portfolio optimization performed by a linear programming algorithm approach. Therefore, genetic algorithms can be considered as an alternative on determining the investment portfolio optimization, particularly using linear programming models.

Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance

OpenAIRE

Guiso, Luigi; Jappelli, Tullio

2006-01-01

Rational investors perceive correctly the value of financial information. Investment in information is therefore rewarded with a higher Sharpe ratio. Overconfident investors overstate the quality of their own information, and thus attain a lower Sharpe ratio. We contrast the implications of the two models using a unique survey of customers of an Italian leading bank with portfolio data and measures of financial information. We find that the portfolio Sharpe ratio is negatively associated with...

Mentoring portfolio use in undergraduate and postgraduate medical education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekker, Hanke; Driessen, Erik; Ter Braak, Edith; Scheele, Fedde; Slaets, Joris; Van Der Molen, Thys; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2009-01-01

Aim: Mentoring is widely acknowledged as being crucial for portfolio learning. The aim of this study is to examine how mentoring portfolio use has been implemented in undergraduate and postgraduate settings. Method: The results of interviews with six key persons involved in setting up portfolio use

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return

Household portfolios and risk taking over age and time

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bucciol, A.; Miniaci, R.

2011-01-01

We exploit the US Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) from 1998 to 2007 to provide new insights on the evolution of US households’ willingness to undertake portfolio risk. Specifically, we consider four alternative measures of portfolio risk, based on two definitions of portfolio - a narrow one,

Acreage portfolio management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, G.M.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the need for managing the acreage portfolio in the UK North Sea arises from fragmentation of holdings and complex field partnerships. The main concepts are building up the heartlands and balancing cashflow forecasts. This has generated a number of friendly win-win deals, motivated by differences in perception of values. The business process includes identifying, evaluating and negotiating deals. The Petroleum Economist plays a central role throughout this process, seeking value gaps and supporting negotiations. Variations in reserves estimates present a major source of value gaps between buyer and seller. Economists need to work closely with engineers and geologists. Portfolio management is an exciting and challenging task which broadens the traditional role of the Petroleum Economist

A Robust Statistics Approach to Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Liusha; Couillet, Romain; McKay, Matthew R.

2015-12-01

We study the design of portfolios under a minimum risk criterion. The performance of the optimized portfolio relies on the accuracy of the estimated covariance matrix of the portfolio asset returns. For large portfolios, the number of available market returns is often of similar order to the number of assets, so that the sample covariance matrix performs poorly as a covariance estimator. Additionally, financial market data often contain outliers which, if not correctly handled, may further corrupt the covariance estimation. We address these shortcomings by studying the performance of a hybrid covariance matrix estimator based on Tyler's robust M-estimator and on Ledoit-Wolf's shrinkage estimator while assuming samples with heavy-tailed distribution. Employing recent results from random matrix theory, we develop a consistent estimator of (a scaled version of) the realized portfolio risk, which is minimized by optimizing online the shrinkage intensity. Our portfolio optimization method is shown via simulations to outperform existing methods both for synthetic and real market data.

Teaching ePortfolios in Teacher Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Groißböck

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Especially when starting their career in the induction phase, young teachers need personal, profession-related and social support. Young teachers can get personal support with a mentoring system, profession-related support in seminars and social support with peer-learning. E-portfolios offer ways to accompany those learning processes and are a central tool for the documentation of individual student progress in the induction phase of teachers. In this article a concept of teaching e-portfolios for the induction phase is presented, showing a basic structure, essential conditions and possible risks. Additionally this article also includes practical thoughts to the use of e-portfolios in basic teacher education and further teacher training.

Portfolio Selection Using Level Crossing Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Shirazi, A. H.; Jafari, G. R.

Asset allocation is one of the most important and also challenging issues in finance. In this paper using level crossing analysis we introduce a new approach for portfolio selection. We introduce a portfolio index that is obtained based on minimizing the waiting time to receive known return and risk values. By the waiting time, we mean time that a special level is observed in average. The advantage of this approach is that the investors are able to set their goals based on gaining return and knowing the average waiting time and risk value at the same time. As an example we use our model for forming portfolio of stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

The Role of Learning- and Presentation- Portfolios in Design Educations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Bente Dahl; Ovesen, Nis

2014-01-01

Students that primarily study design through team-based projects often struggle to develop presentation portfolios that differentiate from the ones of other students. In the industry, design managers experience this as a problem, as they often receive job applications with presentation portfolios...... resources from other activities, which is why the templates have to be carefully balanced in order to achieve the desired effect. The portfolio method proved to be especially good at illustrating process related competencies.......Students that primarily study design through team-based projects often struggle to develop presentation portfolios that differentiate from the ones of other students. In the industry, design managers experience this as a problem, as they often receive job applications with presentation portfolios...... of the portfolio method in engineering design educations, this research project has investigated the method as part of a course programme. The preliminary experiments and results show that learning portfolio templates are effective in strengthening certain activities. On the other hand, the method risks draining...

Interfrm Cooperation Strategy of Hyper-Growth and Stable-Growth ICT Firms in Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika Golonka

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to compare the phenomenon of interfrm cooperation strategy in both hyper-growth, and stable-growth knowledge and technology–intensive frms, in a country characterized by a high level of generalized trust: Sweden. Methodology: Qualitative methods were incorporated: direct semistructured interviews with top managers in 13 ICT frms (8 hyper-growth and 5 stable-growth, analyzis of reports, corporate websites and press releases. Furthermore, interviews in 3 expert frms in the industry were conducted, facilitating interfrm cooperation. Conclusions: There were signifcant differences in interfrm cooperation strategy in two distinguished groups of the frms: hyper-growth, and stable-growth. Managers’ individual approaches to uncertainty, strategy and cooperation might be more important than institutional settings. The ICT frms operate in a constantly changing global environment and local context seems to have only a minor impact on the rules of the game in the industry. Research limitations: This study was a qualitative explorative approach as an introduction to further empirical research. Originality: The study presents an interfrm cooperation phenomenon incorporating different perspectives and settings. It contributes to alliance portfolio literature (forming and managing of alliance portfolio in a different context/country/industry, and enhances understanding of frm strategies characterized by different growth rates.

PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION WITH MINIMUM VARIANCE: COMPARISON WITH MARKET BENCHMARKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Menezes Cavalcante

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Portfolio optimization strategies are advocated as being able to allow the composition of stocks portfolios that provide returns above market benchmarks. This study aims to determine whether, in fact, portfolios based on the minimum variance strategy, optimized by the Modern Portfolio Theory, are able to achieve earnings above market benchmarks in Brazil. Time series of 36 securities traded on the BM&FBOVESPA have been analyzed in a long period of time (1999-2012, with sample windows of 12, 36, 60 and 120 monthly observations. The results indicated that the minimum variance portfolio performance is superior to market benchmarks (CDI and IBOVESPA in terms of return and risk-adjusted return, especially in medium and long-term investment horizons.

Spin glasses and nonlinear constraints in portfolio optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrecut, M.

2014-01-01

We discuss the portfolio optimization problem with the obligatory deposits constraint. Recently it has been shown that as a consequence of this nonlinear constraint, the solution consists of an exponentially large number of optimal portfolios, completely different from each other, and extremely sensitive to any changes in the input parameters of the problem, making the concept of rational decision making questionable. Here we reformulate the problem using a quadratic obligatory deposits constraint, and we show that from the physics point of view, finding an optimal portfolio amounts to calculating the mean-field magnetizations of a random Ising model with the constraint of a constant magnetization norm. We show that the model reduces to an eigenproblem, with 2N solutions, where N is the number of assets defining the portfolio. Also, in order to illustrate our results, we present a detailed numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks traded on the Nasdaq Market.

Spin glasses and nonlinear constraints in portfolio optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrecut, M., E-mail: mircea.andrecut@gmail.com

2014-01-17

We discuss the portfolio optimization problem with the obligatory deposits constraint. Recently it has been shown that as a consequence of this nonlinear constraint, the solution consists of an exponentially large number of optimal portfolios, completely different from each other, and extremely sensitive to any changes in the input parameters of the problem, making the concept of rational decision making questionable. Here we reformulate the problem using a quadratic obligatory deposits constraint, and we show that from the physics point of view, finding an optimal portfolio amounts to calculating the mean-field magnetizations of a random Ising model with the constraint of a constant magnetization norm. We show that the model reduces to an eigenproblem, with 2N solutions, where N is the number of assets defining the portfolio. Also, in order to illustrate our results, we present a detailed numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks traded on the Nasdaq Market.

Robust portfolio selection under norm uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Wang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider the robust portfolio selection problem which has a data uncertainty described by the ( p , w $(p,w$ -norm in the objective function. We show that the robust formulation of this problem is equivalent to a linear optimization problem. Moreover, we present some numerical results concerning our robust portfolio selection problem.

MOSEP – More Self-Esteem With My E-Portfolio Development of a Train-the-Trainer Course for E-Portfolio Tutors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolf Hilzensauer

2009-03-01

Full Text Available E-portfolios are known as a technology- supported learning method for the documentation of competency development. In this article the didactic approach, the course design and the results of the Leonardo da Vinci project MOSEP (More self-esteem with my e-portfolio are described. The main objective of the project was to develop, test and evaluate a new e-portfolio training concept for teachers and tutors in order to support learners during their competence development phase.

Portfolio optimization with structured products under return constraint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baweja Meena

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A new approach for optimizing risk in a portfolio of financial instruments involving structured products is presented. This paper deals with a portfolio selection model which uses optimization methodology to minimize conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR under return constraint. It focuses on minimizing CVaR rather than on minimizing value-at-Risk VaR, as portfolios with low CVaR necessarily have low VaR as well. We consider a simple investment problem where besides stocks and bonds, the investor can also include structured products into the investment portfolio. Due to possible intermediate payments from structured product, we have to deal with a re-investment problem modeled as a linear optimization problem.

Future Learning Strategy and ePortfolios in Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Dorninger

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The rapid change of the information andknowledge Society does no stop at education:communication, teaching and learning are changing due todigital media. Therefore at Austrian schools a “FutureLearning”- strategy was started in October 2007, where newforms of learning are underlined by new media and socialsoftware. This strategy will be presented. An important partof the strategy is the introduction of electronic Portfolios forstudents. Portfolios could be powerful tools to realizeindividualisation in formal education. There are two maintypes, the process portfolio for learning, working andreflection and the application portfolio for assessmentpurposes and job application. It is now possible to collectformal and informal competences and skills-orientedknowledge for the later professional career.

Selling an Energy Efficiency Loan Portfolio in Oregon: Resale of the Craft3 loan portfolio to Self-Help Credit Union

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thompson, Peter; Borgeson, Merrian; Kramer, Chris; Zimring, Mark; Goldman, Charles

2014-05-30

Under the Clean Energy Works (CEW) program, Craft3 developed a loan product that widened access to financing for homeowners, offered long term funding, and collected repayments through the customer?s utility bill. The program?s success led Craft3 to pursue the sale of the loan portfolio to both mitigate its own risks and replenish funds for lending. This sale breaks new ground for energy efficiency finance and is notable as it was completed even with many novel program design elements. It replenished Craft3?s program capital and uncovered some valuable lessons that may facilitate future transactions. However, the lack of data history and the unproven nature of the loan portfolio meant that Craft3 had to limit the risk of losses to Self-Help, the purchaser of the portfolio. It remains to be seen whether this experience will pave the way for more sales of on-bill energy efficiency loan portfolios. This case study illustrates how certain program design decisions can sometimes both facilitate programmatic objectives and possibly present challenges for the sale of a portfolio of energy efficiency loans.

Portfolio Management System

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — PfMS is an implementation of WorkLenz. WorkLenz is USAID's portfolio management system tool. It is a commercially available, off-the-shelf (COTS) package that...

Wavelet evolutionary network for complex-constrained portfolio rebalancing

Science.gov (United States)

Suganya, N. C.; Vijayalakshmi Pai, G. A.

2012-07-01

Portfolio rebalancing problem deals with resetting the proportion of different assets in a portfolio with respect to changing market conditions. The constraints included in the portfolio rebalancing problem are basic, cardinality, bounding, class and proportional transaction cost. In this study, a new heuristic algorithm named wavelet evolutionary network (WEN) is proposed for the solution of complex-constrained portfolio rebalancing problem. Initially, the empirical covariance matrix, one of the key inputs to the problem, is estimated using the wavelet shrinkage denoising technique to obtain better optimal portfolios. Secondly, the complex cardinality constraint is eliminated using k-means cluster analysis. Finally, WEN strategy with logical procedures is employed to find the initial proportion of investment in portfolio of assets and also rebalance them after certain period. Experimental studies of WEN are undertaken on Bombay Stock Exchange, India (BSE200 index, period: July 2001-July 2006) and Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan (Nikkei225 index, period: March 2002-March 2007) data sets. The result obtained using WEN is compared with the only existing counterpart named Hopfield evolutionary network (HEN) strategy and also verifies that WEN performs better than HEN. In addition, different performance metrics and data envelopment analysis are carried out to prove the robustness and efficiency of WEN over HEN strategy.

Implementation of Portfolio Assessment in a Competency-based Dental Hygiene Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadbury-Amyot, Cynthia C.; Holt, Lorie P.; Overman, Pamela R.; Schmidt, Colleen R.

2000-01-01

Describes the implementation of a portfolio assessment program in the dental hygiene program at the University of Missouri School of Dentistry. Tables provide examples of program competencies and related portfolio entries, the complete scoring rubric for portfolios, and the student portfolio evaluation survey. Concludes that although portfolio…

AN EXAMPLE FOR PORTFOLIO PREPARATION IN GERMAN TEACHER TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hüseyin ARAK

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this study we are trying with the help of portfolio in teacher training and the diagnosis of the learning group concerning their skills in translation from German to Turkish, to show the documentation of the learning process. The portfolio provides a good overview about the performance of the students and it also prepares a basis for assessment. A growing self-awareness of students can be achieved through implementing the portfolio-method. The students should collect and reflect the most important materials and practices leading to key terms of the seminar. It is more than an assessment method it is a surrounding of learning. The work with portfolio has an influence on teaching, learning and assessing. As in detail, this is dependent on the aims and other characteristics of the models which take the portfolio work as a basis. The portfolio provides us a big advantage for the support of the cultural reflection. We can observe the process of the growth of knowledge step by step, because the measurement of the development in a determined period allows us either a written work or a Multiple Choice Test. In this sense we can look at the portfolio as an assessment instrument of a process.

Asset Attribution Stability and Portfolio Construction: An Educational Example

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, James T.; Jennings, William P.; Phillips, G. Michael

2014-01-01

This paper illustrates how a third statistic from asset pricing models, the R-squared statistic, may have information that can help in portfolio construction. Using a traditional CAPM model in comparison to an 18-factor Arbitrage Pricing Style Model, a portfolio separation test is conducted. Portfolio returns and risk metrics are compared using…

Predictors and Portfolios Over the Life Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus; Weiss, Farina

In a calibrated consumption-portfolio model with stock, housing, and labor income predictability, we evaluate the welfare effects of predictability on life-cycle consumption-portfolio choice. We compare skilled investors who are able to take advantage of all sources of predictability with unskilled...

Purchasing portfolio models: a critique and update

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gelderman, C.J.; Weele, van A.J.

2005-01-01

Purchasing portfolio models have spawned considerable discussion in the literature. Many advantages and disadvantages have been put forward, revealing considerable divergence in opinion on the merits of portfolio models. This study addresses the question of whether or not the use of purchasing

Essays on intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Bilsen, Servaas

2015-01-01

This dissertation consists of two parts, preceded by an introductory chapter. Part I (Chapters 2, 3 and 4) considers optimal consumption and portfolio choice using preference models. Chapter 2 analyzes optimal consumption and portfolio choice under loss aversion and endogenous updating of the

ROMANIAN INVESTORS PORTFOLIO. ONLINE VERSUS ASSISTED TRADING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Ancuţa IANCU

2017-05-01

Full Text Available One of the most important aspects in deciding to trade online, alone, without the help of a broker, is the portfolio profitability. In this study, using the personal experience, survey data and secondary sources, we identify some factors that may influence the gain and the loss of investors which trade online. Our study contradicts other results from literature that claim that the transition from assisted to online trading is a big drawback in terms of portfolio profitability. By analyzing the performance of the portfolio when passing from assisted to online trading, we observe that half of the investors achieved identical profitability. We also observed that the efficiency of the portfolios belonging to the online investors that were assisted in the past by a broker for a short period, is lower compared to the ones assisted (in the past for a longer period.

Contract portfolio optimization for a gasoline supply chain

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shanshan

Major oil companies sell gasoline through three channels of trade: branded (associated with long-term contracts), unbranded (associated with short-term contracts), and spot market. The branded channel provides them with a long-term secured and sustainable demand source, but requires an inflexible long-term commitment with demand and price risks. The unbranded channel provides a medium level of allocation flexibility. The spot market provides them with the greatest allocation flexibility to the changing market conditions, but the spot market's illiquidity mitigates this benefit. In order to sell the product in a profitable and sustainable way, they need an optimal contract portfolio. This dissertation addresses the contract portfolio optimization problem from different perspectives (retrospective view and forward-looking view) at different levels (strategic level, tactical level and operational level). The objective of the retrospective operational model is to develop a financial case to estimate the business value of having a dynamic optimization model and quantify the opportunity values missed in the past. This model proves the financial significance of the problem and provides top management valuable insights into the business. BP has applied the insights and principles gained from this work and implemented the model to the entire Midwest gasoline supply chain to retrospectively review optimization opportunities. The strategic model is the most parsimonious model that captures the essential economic tradeoffs among different contract types, to demonstrate the need for a contract portfolio and what drives the portfolio. We examine the properties of the optimal contract portfolio and provide a comparative statics analysis by changing the model parameters. As the strategic model encapsulates the business problem at the macroscopic level, the tactical model resolves lower level issues. It considers the time dynamics, the information flow and contracting flow. Using

Portfolio Manager Selection – A Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Michael

2017-01-01

Within a delegated portfolio management setting, this paper presents a case study of how the manager selection process can be operationalized in practice. Investors have to pursue a thorough screening of potential portfolio managers in order to discover their quality, and this paper discusses how...

Declarative Modeling for Production Order Portfolio Scheduling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banaszak Zbigniew

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A declarative framework enabling to determine conditions as well as to develop decision-making software supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises aimed at unique, multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production is discussed. A set of unique production orders grouped into portfolio orders is considered. Operations executed along different production orders share available resources following a mutual exclusion protocol. A unique product or production batch is completed while following a given activity’s network order. The problem concerns scheduling a newly inserted project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment The answers sought are: Can a given project portfolio specified by its cost and completion time be completed within the assumed time period in a manufacturing system in hand? Which manufacturing system capability guarantees the completion of a given project portfolio ordered under assumed cost and time constraints? The considered problems regard finding a computationally effective approach aimed at simultaneous routing and allocation as well as batching and scheduling of a newly ordered project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment. The main objective is to provide a declarative model enabling to state a constraint satisfaction problem aimed at multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production scheduling. Multiple illustrative examples are discussed.

Management of Portfolio Investment Held by Pension Funds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Armeanu

2008-09-01

Full Text Available As a result of the fact that pension funds are financial intermediaries, the value of their assets and liabilities is influenced by changing conditions in financial markets. The market image of a pension fund (and hence its perceived value are closely tied to the “financial health” of the fund. Setting up and managing complex investment portfolios requires that pension administrators use scientific models of portfolio selection and optimization based on the risk-expected return relationship. Most investment portfolios are modified in time as result of changing stock prices and investment policy objectives. Having established investment policy guidelines, the administrators of pension funds have to determine the structure of their portfolios so that the latter meet legal requirements.

The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem

OpenAIRE

Didier, Tatiana; Lowenkron, Alexandre

2009-01-01

The current account can be understood as the outcome of investment decisions made by domestic and foreign investors. These decisions can be decomposed into a portfolio rebalancing and a portfolio growth component. This paper provides empirical evidence of the importance of portfolio rebalancing for the dynamics of the current account. The authors evaluate the predictions of a partial-equil...

Investment Strategy in an Inflationary Environment

OpenAIRE

Zvi Bodie

1981-01-01

This paper addresses the issue of how an investor concerned about the real rate of return on his investment portfolio should allocate his funds among four major asset classes: stocks, bonds, bills and commodity futures contracts. It employs the Markowitz mean-variance framework to derive estimates of the pre-tax, real risk-return tradeoff curve currently facing an investor in the U.S. capital markets. Some of the major findings are: 1) Bills are the cornerstone of any low-risk investment stra...

An Arbitrary Benchmark CAPM: One Additional Frontier Portfolio is Sufficient

OpenAIRE

Ekern, Steinar

2008-01-01

First draft: July 16, 2008 This version: October 7, 2008 The benchmark CAPM linearly relates the expected returns on an arbitrary asset, an arbitrary benchmark portfolio, and an arbitrary MV frontier portfolio. The benchmark is not required to be on the frontier and may be non-perfectly correlated with the frontier portfolio. The benchmark CAPM extends and generalizes previous CAPM formulations, including the zero beta, two correlated frontier portfolios, riskless augmented frontier, an...

Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process

OpenAIRE

Ma, Hui-qiang

2014-01-01

We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance effici...

Methods of Choosing an Optimal Portfolio of Projects

OpenAIRE

Yakovlev, A.; Chernenko, M.

2016-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of existing methods for a portfolio of project optimization. The necessity for their improvement is shown. It is suggested to assess the portfolio of projects on the basis of the amount in the difference between the results and costs during development and implementation of selected projects and the losses caused by non-implementation or delayed implementation of projects that were not included in the portfolio. Consideration of capital and current costs compon...

e-Portfolio as reflection tool during teaching practice: The interplay ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper focuses on an e-portfolio pilot initiative at the Faculty of Education ... expectations of an e-portfolio aligns with the current practices and attributes ... will impact the potential success of the integration of e-portfolios as reflective tools.

Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel

2011-01-01

We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors...

Delegated Portfolio Management and Optimal Allocation of Portfolio Managers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Michael; Vangsgaard Christensen, Michael; Gamskjaer, Ken

2015-01-01

In this article, we investigate whether the application of the mean-variance framework on portfolio manager allocation offers any out-of-sample benefits compared to a naïve strategy of equal weighting. Based on an exclusive data-set of high-net-worth (HNW) investors, we utilize a wide variety of ...

The influence of volatility spill-overs and market beta on portfolio construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Heymans

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This study adds to Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT by providing an additional measure to market beta in constructing a more efficient investment portfolio. The additional measure analyses the volatility spill-over effects among stocks within the same portfolio. Using intraday stock returns from five top-40 listed stocks on the JSE between July 2008 and April 2010, volatility spill-over effects were estimated with a residual- based test (aggregate shock [AS] model framework. It is shown that when a particular stock attracted fewer volatility spill-over effects from the other stocks in the portfolio, the overall portfolio volatility decreased as well. In most cases market beta showcased similar results. Therefore, in order to construct a more efficient risk- adjusted portfolio, one requires both a portfolio that has a unit correlation with the market (beta-based, and stocks that showcase the least amount of volatility spill-over effects amongst one another. These results might assist portfolio managers to construct lower mean variance portfolios.

Learning to Select Supplier Portfolios for Service Supply Chain.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Rui; Li, Jingfei; Wu, Shaoyu; Meng, Dabin

2016-01-01

The research on service supply chain has attracted more and more focus from both academia and industrial community. In a service supply chain, the selection of supplier portfolio is an important and difficult problem due to the fact that a supplier portfolio may include multiple suppliers from a variety of fields. To address this problem, we propose a novel supplier portfolio selection method based on a well known machine learning approach, i.e., Ranking Neural Network (RankNet). In the proposed method, we regard the problem of supplier portfolio selection as a ranking problem, which integrates a large scale of decision making features into a ranking neural network. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted, which demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed supplier portfolio selection model can be applied in a real corporation easily in the future.

E-Portfolio Web-based for Students’ Internship Program Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Juhana, A.; Abdullah, A. G.; Somantri, M.; Aryadi, S.; Zakaria, D.; Amelia, N.; Arasid, W.

2018-02-01

Internship program is an important part in vocational education process to improve the quality of competent graduates. The complete work documentation process in electronic portfolio (e-Portfolio) platform will facilitate students in reporting the results of their work to both university and industry supervisor. The purpose of this research is to create a more easily accessed e-Portfolio which is appropriate for students and supervisors’ need in documenting their work and monitoring process. The method used in this research is fundamental research. This research is focused on the implementation of internship e-Portfolio features by demonstrating them to students who have conducted internship program. The result of this research is to create a proper web-based e-Portfolio which can be used to facilitate students in documenting the results of their work and aid supervisors in monitoring process during internship.

Multi-objective possibilistic model for portfolio selection with transaction cost

Science.gov (United States)

Jana, P.; Roy, T. K.; Mazumder, S. K.

2009-06-01

In this paper, we introduce the possibilistic mean value and variance of continuous distribution, rather than probability distributions. We propose a multi-objective Portfolio based model and added another entropy objective function to generate a well diversified asset portfolio within optimal asset allocation. For quantifying any potential return and risk, portfolio liquidity is taken into account and a multi-objective non-linear programming model for portfolio rebalancing with transaction cost is proposed. The models are illustrated with numerical examples.

Status of portfolios in undergraduate medical education in the LCME accredited US medical school.

Science.gov (United States)

Chertoff, Jason; Wright, Ashleigh; Novak, Maureen; Fantone, Joseph; Fleming, Amy; Ahmed, Toufeeq; Green, Marianne M; Kalet, Adina; Linsenmeyer, Machelle; Jacobs, Joshua; Dokter, Christina; Zaidi, Zareen

2016-09-01

We sought to investigate the number of US medical schools utilizing portfolios, the format of portfolios, information technology (IT) innovations, purpose of portfolios and their ability to engage faculty and students. A 21-question survey regarding portfolios was sent to the 141 LCME-accredited, US medical schools. The response rate was 50% (71/141); 47% of respondents (33/71) reported that their medical school used portfolios in some form. Of those, 7% reported the use of paper-based portfolios and 76% use electronic portfolios. Forty-five percent reported portfolio use for formative evaluation only; 48% for both formative and summative evaluation, and 3% for summative evaluation alone. Seventy-two percent developed a longitudinal, competency-based portfolio. The most common feature of portfolios was reflective writing (79%). Seventy-three percent allow access to the portfolio off-campus, 58% allow usage of tablets and mobile devices, and 9% involve social media within the portfolio. Eighty percent and 69% agreed that the portfolio engaged students and faculty, respectively. Ninety-seven percent reported that the portfolios used at their institution have room for improvement. While there is significant variation in the purpose and structure of portfolios in the medical schools surveyed, most schools using portfolios reported a high level of engagement with students and faculty.

Merton's problem for an investor with a benchmark in a Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard market.

Science.gov (United States)

Lennartsson, Jan; Lindberg, Carl

2015-01-01

To try to outperform an externally given benchmark with known weights is the most common equity mandate in the financial industry. For quantitative investors, this task is predominantly approached by optimizing their portfolios consecutively over short time horizons with one-period models. We seek in this paper to provide a theoretical justification to this practice when the underlying market is of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type. This is done by verifying that an investor who seeks to maximize her expected terminal exponential utility of wealth in excess of her benchmark will in fact use an optimal portfolio equivalent to the one-period Markowitz mean-variance problem in continuum under the corresponding Black-Scholes market. Further, we can represent the solution to the optimization problem as in Feynman-Kac form. Hence, the problem, and its solution, is analogous to Merton's classical portfolio problem, with the main difference that Merton maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth, not wealth in excess of a benchmark.

Statistical properties of cross-correlation in the Korean stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, G.; Eom, C.; Wang, F.; Jung, W.-S.; Stanley, H. E.; Kim, S.

2011-01-01

We investigate the statistical properties of the cross-correlation matrix between individual stocks traded in the Korean stock market using the random matrix theory (RMT) and observe how these affect the portfolio weights in the Markowitz portfolio theory. We find that the distribution of the cross-correlation matrix is positively skewed and changes over time. We find that the eigenvalue distribution of original cross-correlation matrix deviates from the eigenvalues predicted by the RMT, and the largest eigenvalue is 52 times larger than the maximum value among the eigenvalues predicted by the RMT. The β_{473} coefficient, which reflect the largest eigenvalue property, is 0.8, while one of the eigenvalues in the RMT is approximately zero. Notably, we show that the entropy function E(σ) with the portfolio risk σ for the original and filtered cross-correlation matrices are consistent with a power-law function, E( σ) σ^{-γ}, with the exponent γ 2.92 and those for Asian currency crisis decreases significantly.

Problems of Mathematical Finance by Stochastic Control Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Stettner, Łukasz

The purpose of this paper is to present main ideas of mathematics of finance using the stochastic control methods. There is an interplay between stochastic control and mathematics of finance. On the one hand stochastic control is a powerful tool to study financial problems. On the other hand financial applications have stimulated development in several research subareas of stochastic control in the last two decades. We start with pricing of financial derivatives and modeling of asset prices, studying the conditions for the absence of arbitrage. Then we consider pricing of defaultable contingent claims. Investments in bonds lead us to the term structure modeling problems. Special attention is devoted to historical static portfolio analysis called Markowitz theory. We also briefly sketch dynamic portfolio problems using viscosity solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, martingale-convex analysis method or stochastic maximum principle together with backward stochastic differential equation. Finally, long time portfolio analysis for both risk neutral and risk sensitive functionals is introduced.

Portfolio Evaluation Based on Efficient Frontier Superiority Using Center of Gravity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omar Samat

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Investing in portfolio of assets is the best way to reduce the investment risk. The most desired portfolio can be obtained when investors chose to invest in the portfolios that lay on the portfolio’s efficient frontier. However, the superiorities of the portfolios are difficult to differentiate especially when the efficient frontier curves are overlapping. This paper proposed the portfolio’s efficient frontier center of gravity (CoG and Euclidean distance to identify its superiority. A sample of 49 stocks of large-cap and small-cap were used to construct two hypothetical portfolios and its efficient frontiers. The Euclidean distance showed that the large-cap portfolio is superior and having wider feasible solutions compared to the small-cap portfolio. The results of new tool introduced are consistent with the conventional methods. Here the theoretical and practical implications are provided in light of the findings.

Robust Portfolio Optimization using CAPM Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

mohsen gharakhani

2013-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new robust model of multi-period portfolio problem has been developed. One of the key concerns in any asset allocation problem is how to cope with uncertainty about future returns. There are some approaches in the literature for this purpose including stochastic programming and robust optimization. Applying these techniques to multi-period portfolio problem may increase the problem size in a way that the resulting model is intractable. In this paper, a novel approach has been proposed to formulate multi-period portfolio problem as an uncertain linear program assuming that asset return follows the single-index factor model. Robust optimization technique has been also used to solve the problem. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed model, a numerical example has been applied using simulated data.

A ubiquitous reflective e-portfolio architecture.

Science.gov (United States)

Forte, Marcos; de Souza, Wanderley L; da Silva, Roseli F; do Prado, Antonio F; Rodrigues, Jose F

2013-11-01

In nurse and in medicine courses, the use of reflective portfolios as a pedagogical tool is becoming a common practice; in the last years, this practice has gradually migrated from paper-based to electronic-based portfolios. Current approaches for reflective e-portfolios, however, do not widely operate at outdoor sites, where data networks are limited or nonexistent. Considering that many of the activities related to nurse and medicine courses relate to professional practices conducted in such conditions, these network shortcomings restrict the adoption of e-portfolios. The present study describes the requirements specification, design, implementation, and evaluation of the Ubiquitous Reflective E-Portfolio Architecture, a solution proposed to support the development of systems based on mobile and wired access for both online and offline operation. We have implemented a prototype named Professional Practice Module to evaluate the Ubiquitous Reflective E-Portfolio Architecture; the module was based on requirements observed during the professional practice, the paper-based portfolio in use, and related learning meetings in the Medicine Course of a Brazilian University. The evaluation of the system was carried out with a learning group of 2nd year students of the medicine course, who answered to extensive evaluation questionnaires. The prototype proved to be operational in the activities of the professional practice of the Medicine Course object of the study, including homework tasks, patient care, data sharing, and learning meetings. It also demonstrated to be versatile with respect to the availability of the computer network that, many times, was not accessible. Moreover, the students considered the module useful and easy to use, but pointed out difficulties about the keyboard and the display sizes of the netbook devices, and about their operational system. Lastly, most of the students declared preference for the electronic Professional Practice Module in internal

Developing a framework for energy technology portfolio selection

Science.gov (United States)

Davoudpour, Hamid; Ashrafi, Maryam

2012-11-01

Today, the increased consumption of energy in world, in addition to the risk of quick exhaustion of fossil resources, has forced industrial firms and organizations to utilize energy technology portfolio management tools viewed both as a process of diversification of energy sources and optimal use of available energy sources. Furthermore, the rapid development of technologies, their increasing complexity and variety, and market dynamics have made the task of technology portfolio selection difficult. Considering high level of competitiveness, organizations need to strategically allocate their limited resources to the best subset of possible candidates. This paper presents the results of developing a mathematical model for energy technology portfolio selection at a R&D center maximizing support of the organization's strategy and values. The model balances the cost and benefit of the entire portfolio.

Evaluation of the probabilistic safety assessment portfolio for NSD. Plan of work

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gould, J.

1999-01-01

The aim is to use the research portfolio evaluation protocol developed by HSL to evaluate the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) portfolio, both to draw conclusions about the PSA portfolio and as a pilot study to show the suitability of the evaluation protocol. The objectives of the work are: (1) To collect sufficient information to carry out a preliminary review of the portfolio; (2) o produce a plan of work detailing the time and costs to carry out a full evaluation of the PSA portfolio; (3) to evaluate the PSA portfolio of research; (4) to produce a report of the evaluation of the PSA portfolio; (5) if necessary, to make changes to the methodology in light of the experience gained in the evaluation of the PSA research portfolio. This report completes objectives 1 and 2. It details the plan of work for the evaluation of the PSA research portfolio. The plan has shown that the evaluation of the PSA research portfolio has many difficulties to overcome. It is suitable as a pilot study to show the suitability of the portfolio evaluation protocol and will provide valuable information that can be used to improve it. The evaluation of the PSA portfolio will require a considerable amount of time and effort to complete. The task analysis has shown it to be of the order of Pound Sterling 25k and to take two months to complete after this preliminary data collection. The plan to evaluate the PSA research portfolio detailed in this report should be carried out and the lessons learned by carrying out this pilot study should be used to improve the evaluation protocol

Long-term portfolio investments: New insight into return and risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Abramov

2015-09-01

Emphasis is placed on the need for regular adjustments to long-term investors’ portfolios. As portfolios get older, those investors see a reduction in the returns’ dispersion, while differences in risk between various portfolios increase. This means that to maintain a fixed risk–return ratio for a portfolio as the horizon increases, an investor needs to increase the share of lower-risk financial assets during asset allocation process. This thesis becomes especially relevant in the context of retirement savings management.

The Use of Portfolios in Leadership Education

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Paul E.

2009-01-01

This paper discusses the benefits of using student portfolios in undergraduate leadership education at Saint Michael's College. There appears to be a natural link between the use of portfolios as a tool to facilitate and document leadership growth and development. The Business Administration and Accounting Department at Saint Michael's College…

An application of almost marginal conditional stochastic dominance (AMCSD) on forming efficient portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Slamet, Isnandar; Mardiana Putri Carissa, Siska; Pratiwi, Hasih

2017-10-01

Investors always seek an efficient portfolio which is a portfolio that has a maximum return on specific risk or minimal risk on specific return. Almost marginal conditional stochastic dominance (AMCSD) criteria can be used to form the efficient portfolio. The aim of this research is to apply the AMCSD criteria to form an efficient portfolio of bank shares listed in the LQ-45. This criteria is used when there are areas that do not meet the criteria of marginal conditional stochastic dominance (MCSD). On the other words, this criteria can be derived from quotient of areas that violate the MCSD criteria with the area that violate and not violate the MCSD criteria. Based on the data bank stocks listed on LQ-45, it can be stated that there are 38 efficient portfolios of 420 portfolios where each portfolio comprises of 4 stocks and 315 efficient portfolios of 1710 portfolios with each of portfolio has 3 stocks.

Reinforcement Learning in Repeated Portfolio Decisions

OpenAIRE

Diao, Linan; Rieskamp, Jörg

2011-01-01

How do people make investment decisions when they receive outcome feedback? We examined how well the standard mean-variance model and two reinforcement models predict people's portfolio decisions. The basic reinforcement model predicts a learning process that relies solely on the portfolio's overall return, whereas the proposed extended reinforcement model also takes the risk and covariance of the investments into account. The experimental results illustrate that people reacted sensitively to...

Feature selection for portfolio optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerring, Thomas Trier; Ross, Omri; Weissensteiner, Alex

2016-01-01

Most portfolio selection rules based on the sample mean and covariance matrix perform poorly out-of-sample. Moreover, there is a growing body of evidence that such optimization rules are not able to beat simple rules of thumb, such as 1/N. Parameter uncertainty has been identified as one major....... While most of the diversification benefits are preserved, the parameter estimation problem is alleviated. We conduct out-of-sample back-tests to show that in most cases different well-established portfolio selection rules applied on the reduced asset universe are able to improve alpha relative...

CHARACTERISTICS OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS PASSIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ON THE CAPITAL MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MIHAELA SUDACEVSCHI

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The strategies of investment portfolios management on the capital market involves a range of transactions with different financial securities, aimed at optimizing the results. On a developed and efficient capital market, with a high liquidity level, portfolio management primarly depends on investor’s targeted level of return and the risk profile of the investor. Passive strategy of investment portfolios management is applied especially by risk aversion investors, who are taking into account all existing risks in the capital market and seeking to preserve the value of investments, rather than increasing its value. This strategy presume that the investor has no information about the prices and the return of securities that would make him to give to his investment portfolio a different structure from the structure of capital market portfolio. Therefore, he will seek a return level equal to the return on the market portfolio, minimizing the portfolio risk up to eliminating the specific risk.

Capstone Portfolios and Geography Student Learning Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Mossa, Joann

2014-01-01

Due to increasing demands regarding student learning outcomes and accreditation, a capstone portfolio was added to assess critical thinking and communication skills of geography majors at a large public university in the USA. The portfolio guidelines were designed to be adaptable to a flexible curriculum where about half of the requirements within…

2010-11 Research Portfolio: Research & Development Division

Science.gov (United States)

Educational Testing Service, 2010

2010-01-01

This document describes the breadth of the research that the ETS (Educational Testing Service) Research & Development division is conducting in 2010. This portfolio will be updated in early 2011 to reflect changes to existing projects and new projects that were added after this document was completed. The research described in this portfolio falls…

Applying Portfolio Theory to EU Electricity Planning and Policy-Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Awerbuch, Shimon; Berger, Martin

2003-02-01

This study introduces mean-variance portfolio theory and evaluates its potential application to the development of efficient (optimal) European Union (EU-15) generating portfolios that enhance energy security and diversification objectives. The analysis extends to European countries the previous work done by Awerbuch in the US, and applies a significantly more detailed portfolio model that reflects the risk of the relevant generating cost streams: fuel, operation and maintenance and construction period costs. It illustrates the portfolio effects of different generating mixes. The study offers preliminary findings on the effects of including more renewable energy sources in the typical EU portfolio mix and suggests interesting directions for further study. The study arises from the perception that these standard, finance-oriented analyses may offer valuable enhancements to energy planning, and concepts of energy security and diversity. Clearly the combination of better portfolio construction and more accurate pricing should lead to more optimal decisions in the round. This study, therefore, represents an effort to complement traditional approaches and point researchers and planners into new territory. The results generally indicate that the existing and projected EU generating mixes are sub optimal - though slightly - from a risk-return perspective, which implies that feasible portfolios with lower cost and risk exist. These can be developed by adjusting the conventional mix and by including larger shares of wind or similar renewable technologies. The results of the portfolio analysis suggest that fixed cost technologies such as renewables must be a part of any efficient generating portfolio. Our assessment of all technologies is limited to risk and cost measures, although other benefits, including low externality costs and sustainability, are often cited for renewables.

EFFICIENCY OF CREDIT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT IN CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koshel H.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The active development of integration processes causes the necessity of applying high-level approaches to management of the banking system, which is an essential part of the financial sector. Due to the importance of credit operations in the portfolio of banking assets, development of efficient and flexible credit management system is the basis for financial and market stability of banks. Purpose. Analyze the condition of the credit portfolio of banking institutions under the influence of economic processes and make conclusions and recommendations about the effectiveness of managing the bank’s credit portfolio and generalize ways of improving the structure and quality of the bank’s credit portfolio. Results. Over the last six years, the quality of the credit portfolio has become worse because of the bad debts growing and, as a result, decreasing in revenues. The calculated coefficient of management efficiency of a credit portfolio shows the dependence of this indicator on the value of risk and yield. In order to confirm the dependence and determine the degree of influence of these indicators on the efficiency of management of a loan portfolio, an economic-mathematical model was constructed on the example of both individual banks and the banking system as a whole. Detected dependence of factors is quite logical, therefore, the model can be recommended for practical use. Conclusion. Using this method of determining the management efficiency of a credit portfolio will allow the management of the bank to make reasonable decisions. It will allow the possibility of forming a more justified credit portfolio, taking into account not only the profitability, but also the real level of risk of credit operations.

Optimal consumption—portfolio problem with CVaR constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qingye; Gao, Yan

2016-01-01

The optimal portfolio selection is a fundamental issue in finance, and its two most important ingredients are risk and return. Merton's pioneering work in dynamic portfolio selection emphasized only the expected utility of the consumption and the terminal wealth. To make the optimal portfolio strategy be achievable, risk control over bankruptcy during the investment horizon is an indispensable ingredient. So, in this paper, we consider the consumption-portfolio problem coupled with a dynamic risk control. More specifically, different from the existing literature, we impose a dynamic relative CVaR constraint on it. By the stochastic dynamic programming techniques, we derive the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. Moreover, by the Lagrange multiplier method, the closed form solution is provided when the utility function is a logarithmic one. At last, an illustrative empirical study is given. The results show the distinct difference of the portfolio strategies with and without the CVaR constraints: the proportion invested in the risky assets is reduced over time with CVaR constraint instead of being constant without CVaR constraints. This can provide a good decision-making reference for the investors.

Applying Portfolio Selection: A Case of Indonesia Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Praptiningsih

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study has three objectives. First, we investigate whether Modern Portfolio Theory can be applied on the financial decisions that made by investors or individual in order to increase their wealth through investment activities. Second, we examine the real behavior of each asset in terms of capital assets pricing models. Third, we determine whether our portfolio is the best model to produce a higher return in a given level of risk or a lowest risk in a particular level of return. It is found that three different stocks listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange have a positive relationship with market returns. The reactions of the investor regarding these stocks are not influenced by each other. Lastly, the minimum variance portfolio (MVP point which represents the single portfolio with the lowest possible level of standard deviation, occurs when the expected return of portfolio is approximately 2.2 percent at a standard deviation of 8.8 percent.

Investment risk management by applying contemporary modern portfolio theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakšić Milena

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Investment risk is the principal threat to the assets side of the balance sheets of financial institutions. It is evident that investors who concentrate their wealth on one type of securities can rarely be found. Instead, they tend to invest diversified portfolio of securities. This reduces the degree of risk of the expected return, which depends both on the absolute risk of each investment in the portfolio, and the relationship that exists between individual investments within the portfolio. The paper analyzes the investment risk management by using modern portfolio theory in both national and global financial f lows. At the same time, the paper considers the risk management models that ensures efficient portfolio diversification, aiming at investment risk reduction. It is pointed out that the investment risk management in modern financial f lows is a complex process, and that the development of financial theory goes towards improving, soft risk management method.

The use of e-portfolio in a linear algebra course

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Isabel García-Planas

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The use of e-portfolio becomes more common learning and student assessment; and this is due to the need for teachers to enhance students’ autonomy. The use of e-portfolio helps students to reflect on their own learning process. Lectures to large groups should not be limited only to classes, but must foster active learning, and in this regard, the introduction of the e-portfolio is a good tool because it stimulates collaborative and cooperative work among students and in turn encourages feedback with the teacher. To apply active methodologies during 2014-15 has been introduced in the course of the preparation of Linear Algebra comprehensive e-portfolio. To prepare the work of the e-portfolio the teacher had to clearly define the objectives that must be achieved by the students, and has had to plan in an understandable manner the tasks that the students can work independently outside the classroom. For the realization of the e-portfolio have been used different platforms. Each third of the students worked with a different platform, through AteneaLabs that it has provided templates in order that each student make their own e-portfolio, as well as it provide all necessary manuals. The platforms used were: Mahara, Exabis, WordPress and Google Sites. Formative assessment of the e-portfolio has been made from different rubrics defined in in the course syllabus and known by students since the beginning of the course.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2014-07-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.

[Portfolio in nursing school: myth or reality].

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Chantal; Marchand, Claire

2012-09-01

The portfolio is a new tool that has been introduced for the setting up of a new program concerning the nurse training. It aims at the would-be nurse to improve their self-reliance and make them assess themselves through a critical and reflexive approach. Indeed, the portfolio is mostly made up of sheets that the student has to fill in when describing and analysing several professional conditions. This study is about the assessment of the relevance in the portfolio that each nurse student owns in order to make them improve their reflexive practical. The work will, thus, suggest different ways of thinking and improving the use of the tool. 30 portfolios were chosen randomly among the 2nd year students, because 180 analysis were assessed thanks to a grid. 10 viewpoints from volunteer students were gathered after several semi directive interviews. The qualitative and evaluative analysis shows that the students develop the reflexive practical throughout their trainings. It seems, indeed, relevant to choose the portfolio in order to help the students to develop this way of working. According to them, there are several positive points such as the distance towards an event, an awareness-raising of the acquisition, feedbacks about the quality of the text by the trainer and an ability to assess oneself. Yet, even though it was created 18 months ago, there are some limits such as the too short period of mentoring and feedback, the lack of time for the students to write their analysis, the fact that it is not a practical tool, and the unclear description of assessment criteria. In order to fulfil the needs, some solutions are to be found. The portfolio is clearly helpful for the students who wish to increase/improve gradually their reflexive practice. Thus, the trainer's role is crucial, when he is a supervisor.

An Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Uncertain Portfolio Selection

OpenAIRE

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts’ evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is ...

A portfolio evaluation framework for air transportation improvement projects

Science.gov (United States)

Baik, Hyeoncheol

This thesis explores the application of portfolio theory to the Air Transportation System (ATS) improvement. The ATS relies on complexly related resources and different stakeholder groups. Moreover, demand for air travel is significantly increasing relative to capacity of air transportation. In this environment, improving the ATS is challenging. Many projects, which are defined as technologies or initiatives, for improvement have been proposed and some have been demonstrated in practice. However, there is no clear understanding of how well these projects work in different conditions nor of how they interact with each other or with existing systems. These limitations make it difficult to develop good project combinations, or portfolios that maximize improvement. To help address this gap, a framework for identifying good portfolios is proposed. The framework can be applied to individual projects or portfolios of projects. Projects or portfolios are evaluated using four different groups of factors (effectiveness, time-to-implement, scope of applicability, and stakeholder impacts). Portfolios are also evaluated in terms of interaction-determining factors (prerequisites, co-requisites, limiting factors, and amplifying factors) because, while a given project might work well in isolation, interdependencies between projects or with existing systems could result in lower overall performance in combination. Ways to communicate a portfolio to decision makers are also introduced. The framework is unique because (1) it allows using a variety of available data, and (2) it covers diverse benefit metrics. For demonstrating the framework, an application to ground delay management projects serves as a case study. The portfolio evaluation approach introduced in this thesis can aid decision makers and researchers at universities and aviation agencies such as Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Department of Defense (DoD), in

Transparency in the ePortfolio Creation Process

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Stephanie A.; Downs, Elizabeth; Jenkins, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a study examining the effect of transparency on the ePortfolio creation process. The purpose of the study was to examine whether increased awareness of other students' ePortfolios through the implementation of transparency and peer review would positively affect the quality of performance of school library media…

Using ePortfolios to Encourage Responsible Feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Lucia; Soler-Dominguez, Amparo

2015-01-01

This article aims to look at the value that ePortfolios can add to business studies, specifically in the financial field. In order to answer the question, "Do ePortfolios contribute to the development and enhancement of responsible feedback in the classroom?", the study analyzed the work done by postgraduate students pursuing a Master's…

Portfolio management of hydropower producer via stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hongling; Jiang, Chuanwen; Zhang, Yan

2009-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic linear programming framework for the hydropower portfolio management problem with uncertainty in market prices and inflows on medium term. The uncertainty is modeled as a scenario tree using the Monte Carlo simulation method, and the objective is to maximize the expected revenue over the entire scenario tree. The portfolio decisions of the stochastic model are formulated as a tradeoff involving different scenarios. Numerical results illustrate the impact of uncertainty on the portfolio management decisions, and indicate the significant value of stochastic solution. (author)

Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via Market Cloning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ankirchner, Stefan; Dermoune, Azzouz

2011-01-01

The problem of finding the mean variance optimal portfolio in a multiperiod model can not be solved directly by means of dynamic programming. In order to find a solution we therefore first introduce independent market clones having the same distributional properties as the original market, and we replace the portfolio mean and variance by their empirical counterparts. We then use dynamic programming to derive portfolios maximizing a weighted sum of the empirical mean and variance. By letting the number of market clones converge to infinity we are able to solve the original mean variance problem.

Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via Market Cloning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ankirchner, Stefan, E-mail: ankirchner@hcm.uni-bonn.de [Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitaet Bonn, Institut fuer Angewandte Mathematik, Hausdorff Center for Mathematics (Germany); Dermoune, Azzouz, E-mail: Azzouz.Dermoune@math.univ-lille1.fr [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, Laboratoire Paul Painleve UMR CNRS 8524 (France)

2011-08-15

The problem of finding the mean variance optimal portfolio in a multiperiod model can not be solved directly by means of dynamic programming. In order to find a solution we therefore first introduce independent market clones having the same distributional properties as the original market, and we replace the portfolio mean and variance by their empirical counterparts. We then use dynamic programming to derive portfolios maximizing a weighted sum of the empirical mean and variance. By letting the number of market clones converge to infinity we are able to solve the original mean variance problem.

Acreage portfolio management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Georges

1994-01-01

This chapter demonstrates the need for acreage portfolio management at the stage of maturity which has been reached in the UK sector of the North Sea petroleum industry. It outlines the goals, the main features of the deals and the business process. (UK)

Towards a reference model for portfolio management for product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsson, Flemming

2006-01-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of portfolio management for product development at company level. Departing from a combination of explorative interviews with industry professionals and a literature review a proposal for a reference model for portfolio management is developed....... The model consists of a set of defined and interrelated concepts which forms a coherent and consistent reference model that explicate the totality of the portfolio management concept at company level in terms of structure, processes and elements. The model simultaneously pinpoints, positions and integrates...... several central dimensions of portfolio management....

Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice

OpenAIRE

Spaenjers , Christophe; Spira, Sven Michael

2013-01-01

Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust to controlling for optimism and health status, accounting for the endogeneity of equity market participation, or instrumenting subjective life hor...

Quantifying the role of personal management style in the success of investment portfolios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E.A. Wagenaar

2014-01-01

Full Text Available It is extremely difficult to quantify the effect of different management styles of portfolio managers upon the success of their portfolios. Various mathematical models in the literature attempt to predict the risk and returns of portfolios according to changes in the economic arena, but these models usually do not take into account the personal styles of portfolio managers. The aim of this paper is a modest attempt at quantifying the effect of different managerial styles upon decisions regarding portfolios. This is accomplished by the formulation of a mathematical performance index that portrays the influence of a portfolio manager's personal and managerial characteristics on the success of his portfolio.

Alternative Investments: Valuation of Wine as a Means for Portfolio Diversification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daiva Jurevičienė

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This article analyses wine as an alternative investment tool and its relevance for investment portfolio diversification. Advantages and disadvantages of alternatives, benefits and weakness and peculiarities of investing in wine are systemised. In addition, the article looks at statistical data analysis of fine wine market and compares wine with other investment tools. The examination is based on three investment instruments: US equities (using S&P 500 index, bonds (using US 20-Year treasury constant maturity rate/DGS20 and wine (based on Fine Wine Investable index using 1993–2012 (end of year data. The investment portfolios made with two and three above-mentioned investment tools basing on H. Markowitz’s investment portfolio theory and effective curves are presented. It was found that return on investments only from equities and bonds or wine and one of these traditional instruments are signally less than from the investment mix of all three tools. Furthermore, portfolios made only from equities and bonds provide the lowest return compared to others. Choosing from two investments portfolios, results of bond/wine portfolios propose higher return with the same risk level compared to equities/wine portfolio. Consequently, despite some slowdown of wine index during financial crises, wine relevance for portfolio diversification in post crises period was proved.

Choosing an Optimal e-Portfolio System for the Institution

OpenAIRE

YAMAMOTO, Toshiyuki

2010-01-01

Implementing an e-Portfolio system to enhance educational processes and outcomes has been becoming a hot issue among the Japanese universities that are ambitious in resetting their mission statements. In such universities, defining purposes, clearly stating what to be focused, learning processes, and expected outcomes are the critical issues in the development of their original e-Portfolio system. However, not all institutions are aware that e-Portfolio has advantages and disadvantages. One o...

Portfolio Diversification in the South-East European Equity Markets

OpenAIRE

Zaimovic Azra; Arnaut-Berilo Almira; Mustafic Arnela

2017-01-01

Diversification potential enables investors to manage their risk and decrease risk exposure. Good diversification policy is a safety net that prevents a portfolio from losing its value. A well-diversified portfolio consists of different categories of property with low correlations, while highly correlated markets have the feature of low possibilities for diversification. The biggest riddle in the world of investments is to find the optimal portfolio within a set of available assets with limit...

[Development of a portfolio for competency-based assessment in a clinical clerkship curriculum].

Science.gov (United States)

Roh, HyeRin; Lee, Jong-Tae; Yoon, Yoo Sang; Rhee, Byoung Doo

2015-12-01

The purpose of this report was to describe our experience in planning and developing a portfolio for a clinical clerkship curriculum. We have developed a portfolio for assessing student competency since 2007. During an annual workshop on clinical clerkship curricula, clerkship directors from five Paik hospitals of Inje University met to improve the assessment of the portfolio. We generated templates for students to record their activities and reflection and receive feedback. We uploaded these templates to our school's website for students to download freely. Annually, we have held a faculty development seminar and a workshop for portfolio assessment and feedback. Also, we established an orientation program on how to construct a learning portfolio for students. Future actions include creating a ubiquitous portfolio system, extending the portfolio to the entire curriculum, setting up an advisor system, and managing the quality of the portfolio. This study could be helpful for medical schools that plan to improve their portfolio assessment with an outcome-based approach.

Development of an Electronic Portfolio System Success Model: An Information Systems Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Balaban, Igor; Mu, Enrique; Divjak, Blazenka

2013-01-01

This research has two main goals: to develop an instrument for assessing Electronic Portfolio (ePortfolio) success and to build a corresponding ePortfolio success model using DeLone and McLean's information systems success model as the theoretical framework. For this purpose, we developed an ePortfolio success measurement instrument and structural…

Aircraft technology portfolio optimization using ant colony optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Villeneuve, Frederic J.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

2012-11-01

Technology portfolio selection is a combinatorial optimization problem often faced with a large number of combinations and technology incompatibilities. The main research question addressed in this article is to determine if Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is better suited than Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Simulated Annealing (SA) for technology portfolio optimization when incompatibility constraints between technologies are present. Convergence rate, capability to find optima, and efficiency in handling of incompatibilities are the three criteria of comparison. The application problem consists of finding the best technology portfolio from 29 aircraft technologies. The results show that ACO and GAs converge faster and find optima more easily than SA, and that ACO can optimize portfolios with technology incompatibilities without using penalty functions. This latter finding paves the way for more use of ACO when the number of constraints increases, such as in the technology and concept selection for complex engineering systems.

Portfolios and the market geometry

Science.gov (United States)

Eleutério, Samuel; Araújo, Tanya; Vilela Mendes, R.

2014-09-01

A geometric analysis of return time series, performed in the past, implied that most of the systematic information in the market is contained in a space of small dimension. Here we have explored subspaces of this space to find out the relative performance of portfolios formed from companies that have the largest projections in each one of the subspaces. As expected, it was found that the best performance portfolios are associated with some of the small eigenvalue subspaces and not to the dominant dimensions. This is found to occur in a systematic fashion over an extended period (1990-2008).

Using Facebook-Based e-Portfolio in ESL Writing Classrooms: Impact and Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Barrot, Jessie S.

2016-01-01

In English as a second language (ESL) writing pedagogy, much attention has been given to electronic portfolio (e-portfolio) assessment via social networking sites. However, little is known about how Facebook can be used as an e-portfolio platform. Hence, this paper describes the impact of Facebook-based e-portfolio on ESL students' writing…

A risk-return based model to measure the performance of portfolio management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Reza Vakili Fard

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The primary concern in all portfolio management systems is to find a good tradeoff between risk and expected return and a good balance between accepted risk and actual return indicates the performance of a particular portfolio. This paper develops “A-Y Model” to measure the performance of a portfolio and analyze it during the bull and the bear market. This paper considers the daily information of one year before and one year after Iran's 2013 precedential election. The proposed model of this paper provides lost profit and unrealized loss to measure the portfolio performance. The proposed study first ranks the resulted data and then uses some non-parametric methods to see whether there is any change because of the changes in markets on the performance of the portfolio. The results indicate that despite increasing profitable opportunities in bull market, the performance of the portfolio did not match the target risk. As a result, using A-Y Model as a risk and return base model to measure portfolio management's performance appears to reduce risks and increases return of portfolio.

Fifteen years of portfolio assessment of dental hygiene student competency: lessons learned.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadbury-Amyot, Cynthia C; Bray, Kimberly Krust; Austin, Kylie J

2014-10-01

Adoption of portfolio assessment in the educational environment is gaining attention as a means to incorporate self-assessment into the curriculum and to use evidence to support learning outcomes and to demonstrate competency. Portfolios provide a medium for students to demonstrate and document their personal and professional growth across the curriculum. The purpose of this literature review is to discuss the drivers for portfolio education, the benefits to both students and program faculty/administrators, the barriers associated with portfolio use, and suggested solutions that have been determined through several years of "lessons learned." The University of Missouri Kansas City School of Dentistry, Division of Dental Hygiene department has been utilizing portfolio assessment for over 15 years and has collected data related to portfolio performance since 2001. Results from correlational statistics calculated on the 312 dental hygiene students that graduated from 2001 to 2013 demonstrate a positive and significant relationship between portfolio performance and overall GPA as well as portfolio performance and NBDHE scores. Copyright © 2014 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

Portfolio management: Finding growth opportunities in a restructured electricity marketplace. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Staley, J.; Patterson, A.; Gardner, T.

1997-12-01

Energy services companies are rapidly creating a wide array of new products and services for their customers. To penetrate the marketplace most effectively, however, these new offerings should be integrated into cohesive portfolios that meet the needs of key customer segments. This report explores the techniques of portfolio management and describes how this tool can help bring greater balance and focus to an energy provider's product and service portfolios. Portfolio management provides a process for initiating, overseeing, and exiting from diverse investments on the basis of not only the merits of each individual investment, but also the merits of those investments in combination. The principles of portfolio management can be applied to various types of investments, including those involving lines of business, new product initiatives, and project commitments. With the rapid transition to a more competitive environment, these types of market-oriented investments are receiving greater scrutiny in the energy services industry. Accordingly, portfolio management techniques are becoming increasingly important business tools. The project team considers three different categories of portfolio management within the context of the energy services industry. Passive portfolio management focuses on choosing the combination of products/services that will provide the most favorable trade-off of risk and return for a given risk tolerance. Balanced portfolio management provides a more aggressive set of techniques that look broadly at a company's multiple objectives and assist in deploying resources to achieve balance along multiple dimensions. Strategic portfolio management goes even further by helping to define a set of synergistic offerings that reinforce one another and the company's strategic direction. In this report the team also documents case studies of companies that profited from their portfolio management efforts and presents a project design for developing and

International Diversification Versus Domestic Diversification: Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization and Stochastic Dominance Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fathi Abid

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This paper applies the mean-variance portfolio optimization (PO approach and the stochastic dominance (SD test to examine preferences for international diversification versus domestic diversification from American investors’ viewpoints. Our PO results imply that the domestic diversification strategy dominates the international diversification strategy at a lower risk level and the reverse is true at a higher risk level. Our SD analysis shows that there is no arbitrage opportunity between international and domestic stock markets; domestically diversified portfolios with smaller risk dominate internationally diversified portfolios with larger risk and vice versa; and at the same risk level, there is no difference between the domestically and internationally diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, we cannot find any domestically diversified portfolios that stochastically dominate all internationally diversified portfolios, but we find some internationally diversified portfolios with small risk that dominate all the domestically diversified portfolios.

Twelve tips for creating an academic teaching portfolio.

Science.gov (United States)

Little-Wienert, Kim; Mazziotti, Mark

2018-01-01

An academic teaching portfolio is not only a requirement at many academic teaching institutions, but it is also important in a medical educator's growth and development through documentation, reflection, evaluation, and change. Creating an academic portfolio may appear daunting at first but with careful advanced preparation, organized evidence collection of your educational work, proof of scholarship, and thorough documentation of self-reflection and change, you can produce a successful product that accurately represents your educational beliefs, accomplishments, and growth throughout your career. This article provides medical educators with twelve steps for creating a successful academic teaching portfolio.

Current industrial practice of managing risks in product development project portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weng, R.; Oehmen, Josef; Ben-Daya, M.

2013-01-01

Managing portfolios of development and engineering projects currently presents significant challenges to companies. This is even more the case in the management of portfolio risks, where both industry and academia currently lack a clear conceptual understanding of what portfolio risks are and what...

Extended Information Ratio for Portfolio Optimization Using Simulated Annealing with Constrained Neighborhood

Science.gov (United States)

Orito, Yukiko; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Tsujimura, Yasuhiro; Kambayashi, Yasushi

The portfolio optimizations are to determine the proportion-weighted combination in the portfolio in order to achieve investment targets. This optimization is one of the multi-dimensional combinatorial optimizations and it is difficult for the portfolio constructed in the past period to keep its performance in the future period. In order to keep the good performances of portfolios, we propose the extended information ratio as an objective function, using the information ratio, beta, prime beta, or correlation coefficient in this paper. We apply the simulated annealing (SA) to optimize the portfolio employing the proposed ratio. For the SA, we make the neighbor by the operation that changes the structure of the weights in the portfolio. In the numerical experiments, we show that our portfolios keep the good performances when the market trend of the future period becomes different from that of the past period.

Portfolio careers for medical graduates: implications for postgraduate training and workforce planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Eyre, Harris A; Mitchell, Rob D; Milford, Will; Vaswani, Nitin; Moylan, Steven

2014-06-01

Portfolio careers in medicine can be defined as significant involvement in one or more portfolios of activity beyond a practitioner's primary clinical role, either concurrently or in sequence. Portfolio occupations may include medical education, research, administration, legal medicine, the arts, engineering, business and consulting, leadership, politics and entrepreneurship. Despite significant interest among junior doctors, portfolios are poorly integrated with prevocational and speciality training programs in Australia. The present paper seeks to explore this issue. More formal systems for portfolio careers in Australia have the potential to increase job satisfaction, flexibility and retention, as well as diversify trainee skill sets. Although there are numerous benefits from involvement in portfolio careers, there are also risks to the trainee, employing health service and workforce modelling. Formalising pathways to portfolio careers relies on assessing stakeholder interest, enhancing flexibility in training programs, developing support programs, mentorship and coaching schemes and improving support structures in health services.

An unbalanced portfolio.

Science.gov (United States)

Federsel, Hans-Jurgen

2009-06-01

An excellent demonstration of how meaningful and valuable conferences devoted to the topic of project and portfolio management in the pharmaceutical industry can be, was given at an event organized in Barcelona, September 2008. Thus, over this 2-day meeting the delegates were updated on the state of the art in this wide-reaching area from speakers representing an array of companies; from small, relatively new players, via mid-sized, to established large and big pharmas. One common theme that emerged was the importance of assessing the value of drug projects as correctly as possible, especially under the current financial climate and the many challenges facing the industry. Furthermore, experiences from constructing portfolios with the aim to minimize risk and maximize return on investment were shared alongside mathematical approaches to obtain the data required for this purpose and accounts of the pleasures and hardships working in a global context and in partnership constellations. Copyright 2009 Prous Science, S.A.U. or its licensors. All rights reserved.

Portfolio i et lærings- og uddannelsesperspektiv

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

adjunktpædagogikum og underviserkvalificeringsforløb ved andre uddannelser. Af Lone Krogh Indførelse af portfolio som pædagogisk redskab og som struktur for dokumentation af kompetence i kandidatuddannelse - potentialer og udfordringer. Af Annette Lorentsen og Birthe Lund. Et organisatorisk perspektiv på portfolio...

Electricity portfolio management : optimal peak/off-peak allocations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, R.; Mahieu, R.J.; Schlichter, F.

2009-01-01

Electricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to optimally

Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald); F. Schlichter (Felix)

2007-01-01

textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to

Random Matrix Theory Approach to Indonesia Energy Portfolio Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahardhika, Alifian; Purqon, Acep

2017-07-01

In a few years, Indonesia experienced difficulties in maintaining energy security, the problem is the decline in oil production from 1.6 million barrels per day to 861 thousand barrels per day in 2012. However, there is a difference condition in 2015 until the third week in 2016, world oil prices actually fell at the lowest price level since last 12 years. The decline in oil prices due to oversupply of oil by oil-producing countries of the world due to the instability of the world economy. Wave of layoffs in Indonesia is a response to the decline in oil prices, this led to the energy and mines portfolios Indonesia feared would not be more advantageous than the portfolio in other countries. In this research, portfolio analysis will be done on energy and mining in Indonesia by using stock price data of energy and mines in the period 26 November 2010 until April 1, 2016. It was found that the results have a wide effect of the market potential is high in the determination of the return on the portfolio energy and mines. Later, it was found that there are eight of the thirty stocks in the energy and mining portfolio of Indonesia which have a high probability of return relative to the average return of stocks in a portfolio of energy and mines.

Mean-Coherent Risk and Mean-Variance Approaches in Portfolio Selection : An Empirical Comparison

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Polbennikov, S.Y.; Melenberg, B.

2005-01-01

We empirically analyze the implementation of coherent risk measures in portfolio selection.First, we compare optimal portfolios obtained through mean-coherent risk optimization with corresponding mean-variance portfolios.We find that, even for a typical portfolio of equities, the outcomes can be

Optimal annuity portfolio under inflation risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina; Pisinger, David; Weissensteiner, Alex

2015-01-01

The paper investigates the importance of in ation-linked annuities to individuals facing in ation risk. Given the investment opportunities in nominal, real, and variable annuities, as well as cash and stocks, we investigate the consumption and investment decisions under two different objective fu...... and risk aversion, real annuities are a crucial asset in every portfolio. In addition, without investing in real annuities, the retiree has to rebalance the portfolio more frequently, and still obtains the lower and more volatile real consumption....

Risk finance for catastrophe losses with Pareto-calibrated Lévy-stable severities.

Science.gov (United States)

Powers, Michael R; Powers, Thomas Y; Gao, Siwei

2012-11-01

For catastrophe losses, the conventional risk finance paradigm of enterprise risk management identifies transfer, as opposed to pooling or avoidance, as the preferred solution. However, this analysis does not necessarily account for differences between light- and heavy-tailed characteristics of loss portfolios. Of particular concern are the decreasing benefits of diversification (through pooling) as the tails of severity distributions become heavier. In the present article, we study a loss portfolio characterized by nonstochastic frequency and a class of Lévy-stable severity distributions calibrated to match the parameters of the Pareto II distribution. We then propose a conservative risk finance paradigm that can be used to prepare the firm for worst-case scenarios with regard to both (1) the firm's intrinsic sensitivity to risk and (2) the heaviness of the severity's tail. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Household Portfolios and Risk Bearing over Age and Time

OpenAIRE

Alessandro Bucciol; Raffaele Miniaci

2011-01-01

We exploit the US Survey of Consumer Finances from 1998 to 2007 to study households’ portfolio risk bearing. We compare four alternative measures of risk, two based on a financial portfolio and two based on a broader portfolio also including – as illiquid assets – human capital, real estate, business wealth and related debt. The measures provide a different ranking of household risk bearing, but they consistently show that risk bearing fell after 2001, and it positively correlates with wealth...

Annual Report: EPAct Complementary Program's Ultra-Deepwater R&D Portfolio and Unconventional Resources R&D Portfolio (30 September 2012)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none,; Rose, Kelly [NETL; Hakala, Alexandra [NETL; Guthrie, George [NETL

2012-09-30

This report summarizes FY13 research activities performed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Office of Research and Development (ORD), along with its partners in the Regional University Alliance (RUA) to fulfill research needs under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) Section 999's Complementary Program. Title IX, Subtitle J, Section 999A(d) of EPAct 2005 authorizes $50 million per year of federal oil and gas royalties, rents and bonus payments for an oil and natural gas research and development effort, the Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Natural Gas and Other Petroleum Resources Research Program. Section 999 further prescribes four program elements for the effort, one of which is the Complementary Research Program that is to be performed by NETL. This document lays out the plan for the research portfolio for the Complementary Research Program, with an emphasis on the 2013 funding. The Complementary Program consists of two research portfolios focused on domestic resources: (1) the Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Portfolio (UDW) (focused on hydrocarbons in reservoirs in extreme environments) and (2) the Unconventional Resources Portfolio (UCR) (focused on hydrocarbons in shale reservoirs). These two portfolios address the science base that enables these domestic resources to be produced responsibly, informing both regulators and operators. NETL is relying on a core Department of Energy-National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) competency in engineered-natural systems to develop this science base, allowing leveraging of decades of investment. NETL's Complementary Research Program research portfolios support the development of unbiased research and information for policymakers and the public, performing rapid predictions of possible outcomes associated with unexpected events, and carrying out quantitative assessments for energy policy stakeholders that accurately integrate the risks of safety and environmental impacts. The

Using the Teaching Portfolio to Anticipate Programmatic Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Kenneth R.

2013-01-01

Portfolios have long been a staple in professional writing courses: both in employment materials assignments and in entire classes that ask students to reflect on their experiential learning. Portfolios may also be used effectively in business communication teaching methods courses. This article details the justification and methodology for having…

Digital Portfolios: Powerful Marketing Tool for Communications Students

Science.gov (United States)

Nikirk, Martin

2008-01-01

A digital portfolio is a powerful marketing tool for young people searching for employment in the communication or interactive media fields. With a digital portfolio, students can demonstrate their skills at working with software tools, demonstrate appropriate use of materials, explain technical procedures, show an understanding of processes and…

A Bicriteria Approach Identifying Nondominated Portfolios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Pereira

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We explore a portfolio constructive model, formulated in terms of satisfaction of a given set of technical requirements, with the minimum number of projects and minimum redundancy. An algorithm issued from robust portfolio modeling is adapted to a vector model, modifying the dominance condition as convenient, in order to find the set of nondominated portfolios, as solutions of a bicriteria integer linear programming problem. In order to improve the former algorithm, a process finding an optimal solution of a monocriteria version of this problem is proposed, which is further used as a first feasible solution aiding to find nondominated solutions more rapidly. Next, a sorting process is applied on the input data or information matrix, which is intended to prune nonfeasible solutions early in the constructive algorithm. Numerical examples show that the optimization and sorting processes both improve computational efficiency of the original algorithm. Their limits are also shown on certain complex instances.

An artificial bee colony algorithm for uncertain portfolio selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Use of Portfolios by Medical Students: Significance of Critical Thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samy A. Azer

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Portfolios have been used in the medical curriculum to evaluate difficult-to-assess areas such as students' attitudes, professionalism and teamwork. However, their use early in a problem-based learning (PBL course to foster deep learning and enhance students' self-directed learning has not been adequately studied. The aims of this paper are to: (1 understand the uses of portfolios and the rationale for using reflection in the early years of a PBL curriculum; (2 discuss how to introduce portfolios and encourage students' critical thinking skills, not just reflection; and (3 provide students with tips that could enhance their skills in constructing good portfolios.

Managing the New Product Portfolio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsson, Flemming

2008-01-01

Product development companies are increasingly confronted with an unforgiving global marketplace, which urges the top management to pursue every product development opportunity that appears on the road. This situation incurs an important question: Which product development opportunities should a ....... The contributions encourage an improved understanding of the portfolio management concept and support industry professionals in their efforts to compose and continuously maintain a commercially strong product development portfolio.......Product development companies are increasingly confronted with an unforgiving global marketplace, which urges the top management to pursue every product development opportunity that appears on the road. This situation incurs an important question: Which product development opportunities should...

Application of Project Portfolio Management

Science.gov (United States)

Pankowska, Malgorzata

The main goal of the chapter is the presentation of the application project portfolio management approach to support development of e-Municipality and public administration information systems. The models of how people publish and utilize information on the web have been transformed continually. Instead of simply viewing on static web pages, users publish their own content through blogs and photo- and video-sharing slides. Analysed in this chapter, ICT (Information Communication Technology) projects for municipalities cover the mixture of the static web pages, e-Government information systems, and Wikis. So, for the management of the ICT projects' mixtures the portfolio project management approach is proposed.

Statistically Efficient Construction of α-Risk-Minimizing Portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroyuki Taniai

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a semiparametrically efficient estimator for α-risk-minimizing portfolio weights. Based on the work of Bassett et al. (2004, an α-risk-minimizing portfolio optimization is formulated as a linear quantile regression problem. The quantile regression method uses a pseudolikelihood based on an asymmetric Laplace reference density, and asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained. We apply the results of Hallin et al. (2008 to the problem of constructing α-risk-minimizing portfolios using residual signs and ranks and a general reference density. Monte Carlo simulations assess the performance of the proposed method. Empirical applications are also investigated.

Mean-Gini Portfolio Analysis: A Pedagogic Illustration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Sherman Cheung

2007-05-01

Full Text Available It is well known in the finance literature that mean-variance analysis is inappropriate when asset returns are not normally distributed or investors’ preferences of returns are not characterized by quadratic functions. The normality assumption has been widely rejected in cases of emerging market equities and hedge funds. The mean-Gini framework is an attractive alternative as it is consistent with stochastic dominance rules regardless of the probability distributions of asset returns. Applying mean-Gini to a portfolio setting involving multiple assets, however, has always been challenging to business students whose training in optimization is limited. This paper introduces a simple spreadsheet-based approach to mean-Gini portfolio optimization, thus allowing the mean-Gini concepts to be covered more effectively in finance courses such as portfolio theory and investment analysis.

Portfolio optimization using fuzzy linear programming

Science.gov (United States)

Pandit, Purnima K.

2013-09-01

Portfolio Optimization (PO) is a problem in Finance, in which investor tries to maximize return and minimize risk by carefully choosing different assets. Expected return and risk are the most important parameters with regard to optimal portfolios. In the simple form PO can be modeled as quadratic programming problem which can be put into equivalent linear form. PO problems with the fuzzy parameters can be solved as multi-objective fuzzy linear programming problem. In this paper we give the solution to such problems with an illustrative example.

Foreign portfolio capital flows and stock returns: a study of Brazilian listed firms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiago Rodrigues Loncan

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract This study analyzed the effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on stock returns of Brazilian listed firms through a 6-factors APT model, in which an additional risk factor for foreign portfolio capital flows was included. First, an aggregate analysis was conducted. The partial effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on the IBOVESPA index’s returns was statistically significant and positive. Next, a disaggregate analysis was also implemented, in which portfolios of stocks were sorted by sector of economic activity, level of risk and level of corporate governance. Foreign portfolio capitals caused increases in returns especially for sectors related to commodities, industry and cyclical consumption. For the portfolios sorted by risk (in which the stocks’ betas were used as a risk parameter for sorting, foreign capitals increased the returns of mid-high and high beta portfolios, but decreased the returns of low and low-mid beta portfolios. For corporate governance portfolios, the firms listed on the Novo Mercado segment (according to BMF&Bovespa criteria experienced a statistically significant revaluation effect. Overall, the results of the study provide support to the revaluation effect hypothesis.

A Comparative Analysis of Ability of Mimicking Portfolios in Representing the Background Factors

OpenAIRE

Asgharian, Hossein

2004-01-01

Our aim is to give a comparative analysis of ability of different factor mimicking portfolios in representing the background factors. Our analysis contains a cross-sectional regression approach, a time-series regression approach and a portfolio approach for constructing factor mimicking portfolios. The focus of the analysis is the power of mimicking portfolios in the asset pricing models. We conclude that the time series regression approach, with the book-to-market sorted portfolios as the ba...

Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

2016-06-01

Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

Successful healthcare programs and projects: organization portfolio management essentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickens, Scott; Solak, Jamie

2005-01-01

Many healthcare organization projects take more time and resources than planned and fail to deliver desired business outcomes. Healthcare IT is a major component of many projects and often undeservedly receives the blame for failure. Poor results are often not a result of faulty healthcare IT or poor project management or poor project execution alone. Many projects fail because of poor portfolio management--poor planning and management of the portfolio of initiatives designed to meet an organization's strategic goals. Because resources are limited, portfolio management enables organizations to more strategically allocate and manage their resources so care delivery, service delivery, and initiatives that advance organizations toward their strategic goals, including healthcare IT initiatives, can be accomplished at the levels of quality and service desired by an organization. Proper portfolio management is the essential foundation for program and project success and supports overall organization success. Without portfolio management, even programs and projects that execute flawlessly may not meet desired objectives. This article discusses the essential requirements for porfolio management. These include opportunity identification, return on investment (ROI) forecast, project prioritization, capacity planning (inclusive of human, financial, capital, and facilities resources), work scheduling, program and project management and execution, and project performance and value assessment. Portfolio management is essential to successful healthcare project execution. Theories are drawn from the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3) work of the Project Management Institute and other leading strategy, planning, and organization change management research institutes.

Semantic modeling of portfolio assessment in e-learning environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucila Romero

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In learning environment, portfolio is used as a tool to keep track of learner’s progress. Particularly, when it comes to e-learning, continuous assessment allows greater customization and efficiency in learning process and prevents students lost interest in their study. Also, each student has his own characteristics and learning skills that must be taken into account in order to keep learner`s interest. So, personalized monitoring is the key to guarantee the success of technology-based education. In this context, portfolio assessment emerge as the solution because is an easy way to allow teacher organize and personalize assessment according to students characteristic and need. A portfolio assessment can contain various types of assessment like formative assessment, summative assessment, hetero or self-assessment and use different instruments like multiple choice questions, conceptual maps, and essay among others. So, a portfolio assessment represents a compilation of all assessments must be solved by a student in a course, it documents progress and set targets. In previous work, it has been proposed a conceptual framework that consist of an ontology network named AOnet which is a semantic tool conceptualizing different types of assessments. Continuing that work, this paper presents a proposal to implement portfolios assessment in e-learning environments. The proposal consists of a semantic model that describes key components and relations of this domain to set the bases to develop a tool to generate, manage and perform portfolios assessment.

A method for minimum risk portfolio optimization under hybrid uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Egorova, Yu E.; Yazenin, A. V.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate a minimum risk portfolio model under hybrid uncertainty when the profitability of financial assets is described by fuzzy random variables. According to Feng, the variance of a portfolio is defined as a crisp value. To aggregate fuzzy information the weakest (drastic) t-norm is used. We construct an equivalent stochastic problem of the minimum risk portfolio model and specify the stochastic penalty method for solving it.

MODERN THEORETICAL APPROACHES CREDIT PORTFOLIO QUALITY MANAGEMENT OF COMMERCIAL BANK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria Lisnic

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Credit portfolio management means the totality of financial and economic decisions realization aimed at achieving optimal ratio of performance indicators of loan portfolio. If low-quality loans increase, the reduction of productive assets volume and, respectively, profitability from banking lending. In extreme cases a such situation could lead to bank bankruptcy. At present bank loan portfolio quality assessment is an important component of bank management.

Strategic biopharmaceutical portfolio development: an analysis of constraint-induced implications.

Science.gov (United States)

George, Edmund D; Farid, Suzanne S

2008-01-01

Optimizing the structure and development pathway of biopharmaceutical drug portfolios are core concerns to the developer that come with several attached complexities. These include strategic decisions for the choice of drugs, the scheduling of critical activities, and the possible involvement of third parties for development and manufacturing at various stages for each drug. Additional complexities that must be considered include the impact of making such decisions in an uncertain environment. Presented here is the development of a stochastic multi-objective optimization framework designed to address these issues. The framework harnesses the ability of Bayesian networks to characterize the probabilistic structure of superior decisions via machine learning and evolve them to multi-objective optimality. Case studies that entailed three- and five-drug portfolios alongside a range of cash flow constraints were constructed to derive insight from the framework where results demonstrate that a variety of options exist for formulating nondominated strategies in the objective space considered, giving the manufacturer a range of pursuable options. In all cases limitations on cash flow reduce the potential for generating profits for a given probability of success. For the sizes of portfolio considered, results suggest that naïvely applying strategies optimal for a particular size of portfolio to a portfolio of another size is inappropriate. For the five-drug portfolio the most preferred means for development across the set of optimized strategies is to fully integrate development and commercial activities in-house. For the three-drug portfolio, the preferred means of development involves a mixture of in-house, outsourced, and partnered activities. Also, the size of the portfolio appears to have a larger impact on strategy and the quality of objectives than the magnitude of cash flow constraint.

Digital portfolio som metode og pædagogik

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Hanne; Luplau Schnefeld, Mette

2004-01-01

Artiklen præsenterer erfaringer med digital portfolio som didaktik og metode. Fokus er på kobling mellem didaktiske læreprocesser på en grunduddannelse og så understøttelse af disse via brug af en digital portfolio. Portfolioen adskiller en række forskellige dokumentsamlinger i privat og offentlig...

Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Zhao

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

We survey the recent academic literature that uses option-implied information to construct equity portfolios. Studies show that equity managers can earn a positive alpha by using information in individual equity options, by using stocks' exposure to information in market index options, and by using...... stocks' exposure to crude oil option information. Option-implied information can also help construct better mean-variance portfolios and better estimates of market beta....

Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

OpenAIRE

Kebabci, Deniz

2007-01-01

How investors should allocate assets to their portfolios in the presence of predictable components in asset returns is a question of great importance in finance. While early studies took the return generating process as given, recent studies have addressed issues such as parameter estimation and model uncertainty. My dissertation develops Bayesian methods for portfolio choice - and industry allocation in particular - under parameter and model uncertainty. The first chapter of my dissertation,...

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foroogh Ghasemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

Qualitative study of the impact of an authentic electronic portfolio in undergraduate medical education.

Science.gov (United States)

Belcher, Rosie; Jones, Anna; Smith, Laura-Jane; Vincent, Tim; Naidu, Sindhu Bhaarrati; Montgomery, Julia; Haq, Inam; Gill, Deborah

2014-12-17

Portfolios are increasingly used in undergraduate and postgraduate medical education. Four medical schools have collaborated with an established NHS electronic portfolio provider to develop and implement an authentic professional electronic portfolio for undergraduate students. We hypothesized that using an authentic portfolio would have significant advantages for students, particularly in familiarizing them with the tool many will continue to use for years after graduation. This paper describes the early evaluation of this undergraduate portfolio at two participating medical schools. To gather data, a questionnaire survey with extensive free text comments was used at School 1, and three focus groups were held at School 2. This paper reports thematic analysis of students' opinions expressed in the free text comments and focus groups. Five main themes, common across both schools were identified. These concerned the purpose, use and acceptability of the portfolio, advantages of and barriers to the use of the portfolio, and the impacts on both learning and professional identity. An authentic portfolio mitigated some of the negative aspects of using a portfolio, and had a positive effect on students' perception of themselves as becoming past of the profession. However, significant barriers to portfolio use remained, including a lack of understanding of the purpose of a portfolio and a perceived damaging effect on feedback.

A proposed selection process in Over-The-Top project portfolio management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jemy Vestius Confido

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an Over-The-Top (OTT initiative selection process for communication service providers (CSPs entering an OTT business. Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this objective, a literature review was conducted to comprehend the past and current practices of the project (or initiative selection process as mainly suggested in project portfolio management (PPM. This literature was compared with specific situations and the needs of CSPs when constructing an OTT portfolio. Based on the contrast between the conventional project selection process and specific OTT characteristics, a different selection process is developed and tested using group model-building (GMB, which involved an in-depth interview, a questionnaire and a focus group discussion (FGD. Findings: The paper recommends five distinct steps for CSPs to construct an OTT initiative portfolio: candidate list of OTT initiatives, interdependency diagram, evaluation of all interdependent OTT initiatives, evaluation of all non-interdependent OTT initiatives and optimal portfolio of OTT initiatives. Research limitations/implications: The research is empirical, and various OTT services are implemented; the conclusion is derived only from one CSP, which operates as a group. Generalization of this approach will require further empirical tests on different CSPs, OTT players or any firms performing portfolio selection with a degree of interdependency among the projects. Practical implications: Having considered interdependency, the proposed OTT initiative selection steps can be further implemented by portfolio managers for more effective OTT initiative portfolio construction. Originality/value: While the previous literature and common practices suggest ensuring the benefits (mainly financial of individual projects, this research accords higher priority to the success of the overall OTT initiative portfolio and recommends that an evaluation of the overall

Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goran Klepac

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

Designing a portfolio management programme to optimize cash-flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fassom, D.

1996-01-01

The design and implementation of any portfolio management programme must, by definition, be tailored to the drivers and particular objectives of the company owning the assets. This paper will concentrate on one of the most important driving forces, namely managing cash-flow. Five key steps are required to achieve an effective portfolio management programme: 1. establish targets/goals; 2. describe and value the assets in your company's portfolio; 3. identify and catalogue potential 'customers'; 4. construct appropriate deal structures and other strategies to achieve your targets; 5. work hard and do deals. (author)

An Empirical Exploration of the Antecedents and Outcomes of NPD Portfolio Success

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kester, L.; Hultink, H.J.; Griffin, A.

2013-01-01

The manuscript first combines theory and previous empirical findings to build a model of new product development portfolio success. Because relationships between product development portfolio decision-making effectiveness, portfolio success and firm-level success have not previously been

The feasibility and acceptability of using a portfolio to assess professional competence.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Patricia A; Tuekam, Rosine

2011-01-01

Little is known about physical therapists' views on the use of portfolios to evaluate professional competence. The purpose of this study was to gather the opinions of physical therapists on the feasibility and acceptability of a portfolio prepared to demonstrate evidence of clinical specialization through reported activities and accomplishments related to professional development, leadership, and research. Twenty-nine Canadian physical therapists practising in the neurosciences area were given 8 weeks to prepare a professional portfolio. Participants submitted the portfolio along with a survey addressing the preparation of the portfolio and its role as an assessment tool. Qualitative content analysis was used to interpret the participants' comments. Participants reported that maintaining organized records facilitated the preparation of their portfolio. They experienced pride when reviewing their completed portfolios, which summarized their professional activities and highlighted their achievements. Concerns were noted about the veracity of self-reported records and the ability of the documentation to provide a comprehensive view of the full scope of the professional competencies required for clinical specialization (e.g., clinical skills). The study's findings support the feasibility and acceptability of a portfolio review to assess professional competence and clinical specialization in physical therapy and have implications for both physical therapists and professional agencies.

The Use of Academic Portfolio in the Learning and Assessment of Physics Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Kay Ling

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this research paper is to examine the use of portfolios in the teaching and learning of physics at a Singapore private college. The paper starts with a short introduction of the types of students and the purpose of using academic portfolios in their learning and assessment. Some ideas of how portfolios can be used in the local context will also be discussed. It is necessary for teachers to know how to incorporate portfolio assessment in their daily lesson plans. At the same time, students who are studying physics at the college should also know how to use portfolios to their academic advantage. The paper also highlights three of the relevant work artifacts that can be included into the physics portfolios. The three work samples are concept-maps, internet research reports and newspaper articles reports. Concept-maps are useful tools to help students establish the connections between concepts. Internet research reports serve as important means for students to know more about how some scientific devices or technology use physics in the operations. Newspaper articles reports allow students to understand the real impact of physics on the lives of people. Subsequent sections of the paper discuss about the organizational flow of the portfolio, the timeline, the selection process, the portfolio checklist and assessment rubrics, the positive influences of using portfolios, the issues to consider and also the potential problems that physics teachers may face in implementing portfolios. These sections present the important framework which teachers can use as references for their portfolio initiatives in schools.

Using portfolios to introduce the clinical nurse leader to the job market.

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, Tommie L; Webb, Sherry S; McKeon, Leslie M; Jacob, Susan R; Herrin-Griffith, Donna

2012-01-01

Development of a portfolio is an effective strategy used by clinical nurse leaders (CNLs) to inform prospective employers of their specialized skills in quality improvement, patient safety, error prevention, and teamwork. The portfolio provides evidence of competence relative to the role of clinician, outcomes manager, client advocate, educator, information manager, systems analyst/risk anticipator, team manager, healthcare professional, and lifelong learner. This article describes the CNL portfolio developed by experts from the University of Tennessee Health Science Center and Methodist LeBonheur Healthcare. Examples of portfolio documents generated throughout the master's entry CNL curriculum are provided, along with student experiences using the portfolio in the employment interview process.

Developing a Template for Electronic Portfolios in Career and Technical Education

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Matthew

2012-01-01

The purposes of this multiple case study were to determine if manufacturing and services sector employers found value in the use of an ePortfolio in the hiring process, and to develop a suggested template for an ePortfolio format to be used within career and technical education. Electronic portfolios "allow students to showcase their…

E-Portfolios in Teacher Development: The Better Option?

Science.gov (United States)

Xerri, Daniel; Campbell, Caroline

2016-01-01

Following the introduction of print portfolios for teacher development in the ELT sector in Malta, this article discusses the findings of a small-scale study that highlighted teachers' views in relation to the possible future implementation of e-portfolios. It shows that while aware of the benefits of this tool, teachers have concerns about their…

A Holocaust Exhibit ePortfolio: Actively Engaging Students

Science.gov (United States)

Jordine, Melissa

2015-01-01

California State University, Fresno is currently considering implementing an ePortfolio requirement for all undergraduate students. The ePortfolio requirement would be introduced primarily to engage students in a HIP (high impact practice) but would also be used for assessment purposes. As a faculty member and a member of the CSU Fresno ePortfolio…

Portfolio optimization of the construction sector companies in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The objective of this paper is to construct the optimal portfolio that will minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the investors target rate of return by using the mean-semi absolute deviation model. The data of this study comprises 20 construction sector companies that listed in Malaysia stock market from July 2011 until ...

Vacation portfolio decisions: analysis using a Bayesian belief network

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyse the extent to which vacation portfolio decisions are influenced by socio-demographic characteristics. A vacation portfolio involves interdependent decisions related to the facets that make the vacation trip, including transport mode, accommodation, destination,

Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management | Hearne | ORiON

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management. ... Abstract. With a strong commercial incentive driving the increase in game ranching in Southern Africa the need has come for more advanced management tools. ... Keywords: Portfolio selection, multi-objective optimisation, game ranching, wildlife management.

Portfolio Implementation Risk Management Using Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Quintana

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Portfolio management based on mean-variance portfolio optimization is subject to different sources of uncertainty. In addition to those related to the quality of parameter estimates used in the optimization process, investors face a portfolio implementation risk. The potential temporary discrepancy between target and present portfolios, caused by trading strategies, may expose investors to undesired risks. This study proposes an evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithm aiming at regions with solutions more tolerant to these deviations and, therefore, more reliable. The proposed approach incorporates a user’s preference and seeks a fine-grained approximation of the most relevant efficient region. The computational experiments performed in this study are based on a cardinality-constrained problem with investment limits for eight broad-category indexes and 15 years of data. The obtained results show the ability of the proposed approach to address the robustness issue and to support decision making by providing a preferred part of the efficient set. The results reveal that the obtained solutions also exhibit a higher tolerance to prediction errors in asset returns and variance–covariance matrix.

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi Shinzato

Full Text Available The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01

In Modern Portfolio Theory, the correlation coefficients decide the risk of a set of stocks in the portfolio. So, to understand the correlation coefficients between returns of stocks, is a challenge but is very important for the portfolio management. Usually, the stocks with small correlation coefficients or even negative correlation coefficients are preferred. One can calculate the correlation coefficients of stock returns based on the historical stock data. However, in order to control the ...

Analysis of the rebalancing frequency in log-optimal portfolio selection

OpenAIRE

Kuhn, Daniel; Luenberger, David G.

2010-01-01

In a dynamic investment situation, the right timing of portfolio revisions and adjustments is essential to sustain long-term growth. A high rebalancing frequency reduces the portfolio performance in the presence of transaction costs, whereas a low rebalancing frequency entails a static investment strategy that hardly reacts to changing market conditions. This article studies a family of portfolio problems in a Black-Scholes type economy which depend parametrically on the rebalancing frequency...

Teacher Electronic Portfolio and its Relation to EFL Student Teacher Performance and Attitude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Areej T Alshawi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available E-portfolio is a promising approach to develop teachers into reflective practitioners who show that they can adapt to new technologies, new criteria, and new environments. The current research explored the quality of EFL student teachers’ e-portfolios and their attitudes towards using them. The research was conducted on 30 EFL female student teachers at Princess Noura bint Abdulrahman University, Saudi Arabia. The participants were engaging in practical training at schools and reflecting their skills and experiences in their e-portfolios. This research posed further questions about the relationships between the quality of EFL student teachers’ e-portfolios, their attitudes towards using them and their teaching performance. In order to explore the possible answers, the participants’ teaching performance were observed, their e-portfolios were evaluated by a rubric, and a 24-item questionnaire was administered to them. The results proved high proficiency level of the EFL student teachers’ e-portfolios and positive attitudes towards using e-portfolios among EFL student teachers. Furthermore, the results denoted a statistically significant positive relationship between the quality of EFL student teachers’ e-portfolio and their teaching performance. The results of this study may encourage policy makers to integrate the idea of e-portfolio and reflection as an effective component in teacher education and development.

Exploring the role of assessment criteria during teachers' collaborative judgement processes of students' portfolios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaaf, van der M.F.; Baartman, L.K.J.; Prins, F.J.

2012-01-01

Student portfolios are increasingly used for assessing student competences in higher education, but results about the construct validity of portfolio assessment are mixed. A prerequisite for construct validity is that the portfolio assessment is based on relevant portfolio content. Assessment

Towards a TENCompetence ePortfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana J. Berlanga

2008-07-01

Full Text Available This article argues that the TENCompetence ePortfolio definition should integrate rhetorical, pedagogical, social, and technical perspectives. The rhetorical perspective is needed to show the learner’s competences, achievements and history; the pedagogical perspective aims at supporting learner’s self-reflection, through the definition of competences mastered, review and creation of (new competence development plans, and assessment of competences; the social perspective aims at fostering interaction and social help support; and the technical perspective aims at supporting the other three perspectives. Guiding principles for the design of the TENCompetence ePortfolio are provided, and the aforementioned perspectives detailed.

Online Learning of Commission Avoidant Portfolio Ensembles

OpenAIRE

Uziel, Guy; El-Yaniv, Ran

2016-01-01

We present a novel online ensemble learning strategy for portfolio selection. The new strategy controls and exploits any set of commission-oblivious portfolio selection algorithms. The strategy handles transaction costs using a novel commission avoidance mechanism. We prove a logarithmic regret bound for our strategy with respect to optimal mixtures of the base algorithms. Numerical examples validate the viability of our method and show significant improvement over the state-of-the-art.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allan, Grant; Eromenko, Igor; McGregor, Peter; Swales, Kim

2011-01-01

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance 'inefficient' in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost. - Research Highlights: → Portfolio analysis of scenarios for Scotland's electricity generating mix in 2020. → Reveals potential inefficiencies of selecting mixes based on levelised cost alone. → Portfolio risk-reducing contribution of Wave and Tidal technologies assessed.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allan, Grant, E-mail: grant.j.allan@strath.ac.u [Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom); Eromenko, Igor; McGregor, Peter [Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom); Swales, Kim [Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom)

2011-01-15

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance 'inefficient' in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost. - Research Highlights: {yields} Portfolio analysis of scenarios for Scotland's electricity generating mix in 2020. {yields} Reveals potential inefficiencies of selecting mixes based on levelised cost alone. {yields} Portfolio risk-reducing contribution of Wave and Tidal technologies assessed.

Portfolio Management with Stochastic Interest Rates and Inflation Ambiguity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munk, Claus; Rubtsov, Alexey Vladimirovich

2014-01-01

prices. The investor is ambiguous about the inflation model and prefers a portfolio strategy which is robust to model misspecification. Ambiguity about the inflation dynamics is shown to affect the optimal portfolio fundamentally different than ambiguity about the price dynamics of traded assets...

Discourses and Theoretical Assumptions in IT Project Portfolio Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kristian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

2014-01-01

DISCOURSES AND THEORETICAL ASSUMPTIONS IN IT PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE These years increasing interest is put on IT project portfolio management (IT PPM). Considering IT PPM an interdisciplinary practice, we conduct a concept-based literature review of relevant...

A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

2009-01-01

textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

2008-01-01

textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov decision process. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... This study provides a review of Markov decision processes and investigates its suitability for solutions to portfolio allocation problems under vendor managed inventory in ...

Portfolios with fuzzy returns: Selection strategies based on semi-infinite programming

Science.gov (United States)

Vercher, Enriqueta

2008-08-01

This paper provides new models for portfolio selection in which the returns on securities are considered fuzzy numbers rather than random variables. The investor's problem is to find the portfolio that minimizes the risk of achieving a return that is not less than the return of a riskless asset. The corresponding optimal portfolio is derived using semi-infinite programming in a soft framework. The return on each asset and their membership functions are described using historical data. The investment risk is approximated by mean intervals which evaluate the downside risk for a given fuzzy portfolio. This approach is illustrated with a numerical example.