Global change has come about due to shifts in the business cycle, a new undeveloped paradigm to replace the Cold War, and a stabilization of expansion and development of modern industrial society. Japan has been transfixed with its own internal domestic affairs, but will feel the consequences of the Industrial Age nearing its end. Industrialization had relied on unlimited resources from the natural environment and the belief that a free-market economy would automatically lead to orderliness and a state of economic equilibrium. Population control has been an issue that has slid over the years as a priority status. In 1800, the population in developed countries was 4 times the population in developing countries; the reverse is becoming true. Mass migration was an unusual phenomena and not the problem it is today. There is a gap between population and productive capacity. Developed countries believed in humanitarian aid for refugees and impoverished peoples, but the numbers were unanticipated. There is no shame for war or civil unrest to drive boat people and hugh numbers to another country. The notion of nation state has changed. The boat people from Cuba were a beginning example of how governments were unconcerned about the loss of population. Afghanistan in 1979 was another example of refugees fleeing civil war. Iraq bombed the Kurds until there was no choice but to leave. Turkey was required to use troops to drive the Kurds back into Iraq. To increase aid indefinitely, or to send out more refugees than it takes in, or to use military forces to kill the invading refugees are not acceptable. An international framework with consensus from developed and developing countries is needed for dealing with mass migrations. Conventions adopted would have to be recognized as in each countries self-interest; disregard of the regulations would have to reflect significant disadvantages to a nation. Several issues are discussed as key in such a global framework: assuring
Merrick, T W
The world's population growth rate peaked at slightly over 2%/year in the late 1960s and in 1986 is down to 1.7% and falling. Annual numbers added continue to rise because these rates apply to a very large base, 4.9 billion in 1986. According to UN medium variant projections, world population growth will peak at 89 million/year in the late 1990s and then taper off until world population stabilizes in the late decade of the 21st century at about 10.2 billion. Close to 95% of this growth is occurring in less developed countries (LDCs) of Africa, Asia (minus Japan), and Latin America. LDC fertility rates are declining, except in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America and South Asia, but most have far to go to reach the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman. Fertility is below replacement in virtually all more developed countries. For LDCs, large numbers will be added before stabilization even after attainment of replacement level fertility because of the demographic momentum built into their large and young population bases. This complicates efforts to bridge gaps between living standards in LDCs and industrialized countries. From a new debate about whether rapid population growth deters or stimulates economic growth, a more integrated view has emerged. This view recognizes the complementary relationship between efforts to slow population growth and other development efforts; e.g., to improve health and education, upgrade women's status, increase productivity. Most effective in the increased contraceptive prevalence and fertility declines seen in many LDCs has been the combination of organized programs to increase access to family planning information and supplies with socioeconomic development that enhances the desire for smaller families.
Brorson, Stig; Andersen, Hanne
discuss the problem of how divergent thinking can emerge in a dogmatic atmosphere. We shall argue that in their accounts of the factors inducing changes of scientific phenomenal worlds Fleck and Kuhn offer substantially different approaches, and we shall discuss in which respects their approaches may......In the work of both Ludwik Fleck and Thomas Kuhn the scientific literature plays important roles for stability and change of scientific phenomenal worlds. In this article we shall introduce the analyses of scientific literature provided by Fleck and Kühn, respectively. From this background we shall...
Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.
This book is the third in a series published by the Population Reference Bureau aimed at illuminating the facts and consequences of human population dynamics for secondary and college-age students. Many illustrations, charts and graphs are included in this volume to help the reader grasp a number of the current ideas and concepts that are used in…
Warren, Stephen G.
Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, Easter Island, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are wrong because they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food.
Olivares, Ingrid; Svenning, J.-C.; van Bodegom, Peter M
Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995...... dynamics in Yasuní contrast with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm...
Over 50% of the world's population is below the age of marriage, which indicates rapid expansion of the population into the next century. The developing countries produce 85% of the births, 95% of infant deaths, and in some, 99% of maternal deaths. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) will slow population growth but will not reverse the trend. Family planning programs have worked as evidenced by declining fertility rates. In the US there was a total fertility rate decline of 6 to 3.5 in 58 years. In Sri Lanka the same change took 30 years, in Thailand 15 years and in China 7 years. Family planning programs that are successful provide condoms cheaply, provide community distribution of pills, offer sterilization to male and females, and promote long periods of lactation. Abortion rates are often higher in countries where they are illegal and family planning is usually not offered. Social marketing and voluntary sterilization are the most cost effective birth control methods as proven in less developed countries. Management is the vital factor in more cost effective family planning programs. In sub-Saharan Africa and India there will be a need to subsidize contraceptives well into the next century. If the world is to be serious about family planning, many industrialized countries will have to contribute resources. Private sector involvement needs to be emphasized more in developing countries. Resources are low because of a lack of political will caused by a lack of understanding of the facts of demographic growth. There have been estimates that it will take $7.5 billion to satisfy the developing countries' birth control needs: there is only $1.5 billion being spent now. Many countries are not providing family planning quickly enough and may be forced to give up the freedom to choose family size. The choice of policy makers now is to increase the resources for contraceptive research, or to settle with abortion and sterilization as backup to inadequate methods.
Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.
This article describes Japan's celebration of World Population Day, and provides excerpts from speeches at the symposium held on July 8, 1998. The symposium, in Tokyo, was attended by about 300 people. The Chairman of JOICFP gave the opening address. The executive director of UNFPA congratulated Japan for its efforts in the field of population awareness and noted Japan's self-sufficiency despite its importation of 40% of its food and most of its raw materials. A keynote address was delivered by the president of CPE and the former UN Secretary General, who stressed income inequities in the 66% of developing countries within the 185 UN member states. The UN has been promoting sustainable development, but is facing the issue of limited arable land and population growth. The Tutsi and Hutus are fighting due to population based issues. The emphasis should be on women's reproductive rights and protection of women's human rights. 1998 is the 50th year of human rights; progress has been made. The UNFPA Goodwill Ambassador spoke about the disparity between the rich and poor in the Philippines. A small donation reaps incredible progress. Manila has high levels of adolescent childbearing. Men appear to be unaware of the disadvantages of childbearing too early. Rural areas are dominated by strict Roman Catholic beliefs. Manila has commercial sex workers who provide services to Japanese men. The 1998 Kato Award was given to women who raised awareness about coercion in the sex trade and female genital mutilation. The economic situation in Japan creates even greater need to promote family planning and reproductive health.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: Global Population of the World (GPW) translates census population data to a latitude-longitude grid so that population data may be used in...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population of the World (GPW) translates census population data to a latitude-longitude grid so that population data may be used in cross-disciplinary...
Kriegel, U.; Mende, W.; Grauer, M.
The evolution of large-scale systems is described by a model based on the assumption of hyperbolic growth and saturation processes. It is shown that this Hyper-Logistic Evolution Model (HLEM) successfully describes the development of world population and global primary energy consumption over the past century; the model is also used to provide projections of world population and primary energy consumption up to the year 2100.
The connection between infectious disease control and national security is now firmly entrenched. This article takes a historical look at another security issue once prominent in debate on foreign policy and international relations, but now more or less absent: overpopulation. It explores the nature of the debate on population as a security question, and its complicated historical relation to the development of world health.
The world's population stands at about 5.3 billion. It increases by about 90 million/year. 90% of this growth is in the developing world where about 75% of the world population live. In Arab countries, the population is growing 2.6%/year and total fertility rates (TFRs) stand 5 whereas the TFR for the entire world is a bit 3. Much of the growth has occurred in cities, e.g., Cairo, where the population has outpaced basic services. Cities require food and fuel thereby stressing rural areas which rural-urban migration only exacerbates. Population growth and distribution have a more profound and long term effect on the planet than does the destruction of rain forests and desertification. Indeed they contribute heavily to these very problems. Even though people have the right to decide how many children they have and their spacing, they also have the responsibility, as Islam professes, to have only number of children they can afford. Likewise governments have the right and responsibility to develop population policies each suited to the individual nation's needs and conditions. Each government must set policies that improve the role and status of women, such as ensuring literacy and education for girls and women. In fact, women must be involved in designing and managing population and development policies to ensure success of any related endeavors. The Arab would agrees on the safer motherhood strategy (providing means to prevent and space births) as a means to reduce population growth. The UNFPA encourages the Arab world to develop a unique Arab population policy which is in accordance with Islamic teachings and is acceptable to all countries and to both men and women.
Murphy, Elaine M.
This document consists of answers to questions on various aspects of world population. They are: What is the population of the world? How fast is the population of the world growing? When will the population of the world stop growing? Is the term "population explosion" accurate? Why did this sudden growth occur? Did people have more babies than…
Tabah, L; Kono, S
The rapid rise in world population for the 4 periods 1950-1955, 1955 -1960, 1960-1965, and 1965-1970 is mainly due to a decline in the crude death rate from 24/1000 in 1950-1955 to 16.1/1000 in 1965-1970. 1950 was a turning-point in mortality rates because for the first time public health measures became widely available in less developed regions. These less developed regions contained 63.4% of the world population in 1930, 65.5% in 1950, and 70.0% in 1970. World population increased by 22% in 1960-1970, compared to 20% in 1950-1960, which was twice as much as the 20% registered for the 20 years 1930-1950. Developed regions contributed a 14% increase between 1950-1960 and 12% between 1960-1970; in less developed regions the increases were 23% and 27% respectively. Demographic conferences have begun to neglect mortality, but this is still a vital part of total population growth. Evidence is that the mortality decline in less developed countries is beginning to level off so that previous population projections may not be reached. What decline has been seen in crude birth rates in less developed countries is largely attributable to declines in East Asia, notably in the People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea, and other Chinese or Chinese culture-related populations, as well as some of the smaller Latin American countries and some small islands off Africa. Such demographic giants as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa have shown little change. In areas with high fertility there are more mothers under age 20 and more births to women over age 35 while in low-fertility areas births are concentrated in the 20-35 year groups. An interesting example is Japan which has 50% of its births to mothers 25-29 years of age. Less developed countries have a larger proportion o f the population under age 14 while developed countries which have had lower fertility for a number of years have larger numbers in the older age groups. In less developed areas the greatest
Franda, M F
The World Population Conference, held in Bucharest, Romania, August 19-30, 1974 is described. 1287 delegates representing 135 countries, pl us representatives of nongovernmental organizations, participants in related activities, and journalists attended. The task of the delegates was: 1) to decide on procedures; 2) to amend and approve a 20-page World Population Plan of Action (WPPA); and 3) to participate in 3 conference committees on social and economic development, natural resources and the environment, and family and human rights. The major political problem was that 106 of the 148 countries invited considered their population growth rates to be either satisfactory or too slow. The Chinese, Latin Americans, Africans, and the Holy See were opposed to family planning programs and directed most of their criticism toward the U.S. The Chinese and the U.S.S.R. both opposed the WPPA on most key votes, with both influencing much of the Third World. The U.S., Western Europe, Oceania, and most of Asia supported the draft WPPA. When the votes were counted, the draft WPPA had been weakened, although some strong statements favoring government family planning programs were retained. Perhaps the fact that such a conference was actually held is a step in the right direction.
A brief presentation was given of the statements Dr. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) and Secretary General of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), made before a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank on resource flows to developing countries, population, international trade, and migration. The meeting was attended by finance ministers from 24 countries. The IMF Managing Director gave an overview at the meeting of the world economic situation and the need for international assistance for effective population and family planning programs. Dr. Sadik emphasized this need as a requirement for implementation of the 20-year ICPD Programme of Action. The increased investment was considered beneficial because it would increase life expectancy, lower demand for health and education services, reduce pressure in the job market, reduce economic hardship, and increase social stability. The growth of prosperity was considered by Dr. Sadik to be tied to increased demand for housing, energy, and utilities. A slower and more balanced population growth would allow for government services to meet demands and for the world to adjust to increasing numbers of people. Several ministers supported the call for increased funding of population programs and poverty reduction programs. A special communique by ministers recognized that the connections between economic growth, population, poverty reduction, health, investment in human resources, and environmental degradation must be integrated into population policy. Ministers urged the ICPD to emphasize improvements in primary school enrollment in low income countries, in access to family planning and health services, and in maternal and child mortality rates. Ministers wanted to see increases in the proportion of aid directed to population programs above the current 1.25%. Requests were made for more research into the social
The world's population is aging at an accelerated rate. Declining fertility rates combined with steady improvements in life expectancy over the latter half of the 20th century have produced dramatic growth in the world's elderly population...
The world's population is aging at an accelerated rate. Declining fertility rates combined with steady improvements in life expectancy over the latter half of the 20th century have produced dramatic growth in the world's elderly population...
Brown, L R
This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31%. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption/person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, food prices were volatile, and over 100 food deficit countries came to depend on the exportable surplus of North America, now the only major grain exporting region. The world fish catch levelled off in the early 1970s and beef production, still dependent mainly on grassland grazing, levelled off in the mid-1970s. With little new land left to plow, satisfying increased food demand now depends on sharp increases in yields on existing crop land. Worldwide, this effort is hampered by loss of topsoil and irrigated land, conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, rising energy costs, inefficient agrarian structures, particularly in the Soviet Union, the falling yield response to chemical fertilizers in agriculturally advanced countries, and the emerging competition between food and agriculturally based energy crops. Green Revolution successes in some developing countries deomonstrate that, given the right inputs, 3rd world farmers can increase crop yields dramatically. Feeding the world's poor also requires more equitable income and food distribution, including a reduction in the proportion of grain and fish consumed indirectly as livestock products by the affluent. Most important in meeting food needs on a finite planet is braking population growth. The author concludes that every effort should be made to stabilize world production at abour 6 billion by 2020, rather than 10.5 billion by 2110, as is now projected by the UN.
Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei
In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.
Speidel, J J
95% of all population growth occurs in developing countries. If growth continues to occur at its present rate, the world population of 5.3 billion will exceed 20 billion by the year 2070. Average worldwide family size can be decreased to 2.2 by 2015 if 75% of the world's couples used birth control, and the population would stabilize at 9.3 billion by 2095. In order to accomplish stabilization of growth, the world must increase spending on family planning from US $3.2 billion to US $10.5 billion. Much of this increase must come from developed countries. If the US increases aid from US $230 million per year to US $1.2 billion by the year 2000, the US would be providing a share proportionate to its income. This article cites the South Korean example as a model for population stabilization. Instead of efficient reproduction, we must now practice limited reproduction in order to survive.
Kent, Mary Mederios
This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…
The UN Conference on Population and Development in Cairo during September 1994 aimed to find ways of limiting population explosion over the next 20 years (until 2015). Present world population is 5.6 billion and may double in 50 years, which would seriously compromise resources. In this article, abortion is viewed as the most controversial conference topic, which had to be carefully defined as a public health problem rather than a means of birth control. Other issues which generated considerable conflict of opinion included immigration quotas in developed countries and reservations about the "rights" of immigrants to reunite with families. Agreement was reached about the "fair principle" of reuniting families. The nongovernmental organization agenda was unsuccessful in promoting the issue of women's vulnerability to political and economic causes of migration and awareness of women's lack of access to independent refugee status or political asylum for sexual oppression. Every chapter in the UN Conference document had a reference to women. Chapter Eleven's topic on access to education for both boys and girls was diluted from "equal" access to "fair" access due to Muslim objections based on sacred writings. Taboo subjects included women's control over their bodies and premarital sex, human rights, and respect for cultures. The conference never affirmed the free right of women to make decisions about their bodies. Participants would have preferred greater attention to development issues such as the rapid decline in fertility in countries such as Colombia, Zimbabwe, Thailand, and China. The link between economic growth and population control was viewed by the conference as hypothetical. A well-known French demographer stated that the "major squanderers" of world resources are countries with low birth rates. The overpopulation fear is defined as the fear of having to share or restrict even surpluses. The most prominent statement at Cairo was made by Mrs. Bhutto, who said
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) Centroids consists of estimates of human population counts and densities for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005,...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 2 (GPWv2) consists of estimates of human population for the years 1995 and 1990 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells. The data...
Gaughan, A. E.; Stevens, F. R.; Linard, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Tatem, A. J.
Fundamental to applications of land-use science is the spatiotemporal knowledge of the distribution, movement and concentration of human population. While census data is a historical source of population data, the past few decades have seen advancement in the techniques for creating gridded population products. These gridded population products provide a spatially-explicit human denominator, estimated for consistent areal units, from which a multitude of other research and policy initiatives rely. The importance of such products makes not only the accuracy of the population data important but also requires researchers and practitioners to understand how these data were created and how that constrains their use. We provide an overview of the different global gridded population products with insight on their production methods, from "lightly" modeled to more complex, statistical approaches. We also discuss considerations for different spatial and temporal aspects of gridded population data, with reference towards issues of endogeneity, temporal specificity, and spatial conformity. With various options available to the land change community for global, gridded population products, it is important to understand the differences between products and their best uses.
After 6 days of debate and 200 speakers during September 5-13, 1994, participants from 180 countries at the Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) agreed on a strategy for curbing global population growth over the next 20 years. The objective was sustained economic growth and sustainable development. In his opening remarks, UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali said that the objective was to balance humanity and the environment with the means to sustain life, and that the efficacy of the world economic order depended to some extent on the ICPD. Participants were urged to use rigor, tolerance, and conscience in conference deliberations. Men and women should have the right and the means to choose their families' futures. The preamble stated that the ICPD would probably be the last opportunity in the twentieth century to address globally the issues relating to population and development. UN Population Fund Executive Director Nafis Sadik remarked that the ICPD had the potential to change the world. Egyptian President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak was elected president of the ICPD. Mubarak stated that solutions to population problems must go beyond demographic accounting and incorporate change in social, economic, and cultural conditions. Norway's Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland stated that development in many countries never reached many women. She called it a hypocritical morality that allowed women to suffer and die from unwanted pregnancies, illegal abortions, and miserable living conditions. US Vice President Albert Gore called for comprehensive and holistic solutions. The essential features of social change would involve democracy, economic reform, low rates of inflation, low levels of corruption, sound environmental management, free and open markets, and access to developed country markets. Pakistan's Prime Minister Benazir urged the empowerment of women. Many expressed the concern about unsustainable consumption in industrialized
Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there
Hilderink HBM; LOK
Demographic developments have played an important role in the structure and functioning of the Earth's system. The exponential population growth of the last century has led to high pressures on the environmental system, with the issue of hunger as representative of harmful effects. Despite the fact
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Administrative Unit Center Points with Population Estimates consists of UN-adjusted estimates of human population...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Density consists of estimates of human population density based on counts consistent with national...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Density, Revision 10 consists of estimates of human population density (number of persons per square...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Count, Revision 10 consists of estimates of human population (number of persons per pixel), consistent...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) Coastlines are derived from the land area grid to show the outlines of pixels (cells) that contain administrative...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) National Boundaries are derived from the land area grid to show the outlines of pixels (cells) that contain...
Brown, Lester R.
This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31 percent. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption per person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of…
Since their establishment, the regional commissions of the United Nations have been devoting particular attention to population and development concerns. Each commission with its unique social, demographic, economic and political characteristics, has contributed to the international debate on population issues. The commissions have provided a suitable forum for the discussion of those issues, have established programs and activities to respond to them, and, with growing experience and expertise, have contributed to a better understanding of them. National Governments, international organizations, private groups, and the public in general have benefited from their regional activities. This article deals with the substantive contributions of the regional commissions to the last 2 population conferences, the World Population Conference (Bucharest, 1974), where the World Population Plan of Action was adopted, and the International Conference on Population (Mexico City, 1984), where the experience in applying Plan of Action was assessed and a set recommendations for the further implementation of the Plan adopted.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3), Future Estimates consists of estimates of human population for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 by 2.5 arc-minute...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Count Adjusted to Match 2015 Revision of UN WPP Country Totals consists of estimates of human...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) Future Estimates consists of estimates of human population for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 by 2.5 arc-minute...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) consists of estimates of human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells and...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) consists of estimates of human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells and...
Full Text Available World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intentionality in reproduction in pre-capitalist societies. It assumes a model of "demographic transition" from a state of "natural fertility" to a state of conscious family planning, while also treating mortality as independent of fertility Marxism recognized the importance of population as a source of labor for profit and capital accumulation. With its tools Sydney Coontz developed a demand for labor theory explaining in particular the decrease in the birth rate in England and the United States at the turn of the century This theory was f urther developed by anthropologists of the "mode of product ion and population pat terns " who, with other authors, offer useful theories and insights to advance world-historical research on population. This article explores connections between population dy namics and world-systems analysis. I explore six key questions at different levels of analysis, including: 1 Are there world-systems ' imperatives concerning human reproduction?; 2 Do human reproduction imperatives differ across world-systems.'?; 3 How do the (eventual systems requirements get transmitted to households and individuals'?; 4 Why do people have children.'?; 5 Who is the subject of procreation decisions'?; and 6 How is the number of offspring chosen? Finally, I offer guidelines for applying the six questions to the capitalist world-economy.
World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s) of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intention...
This work presents 10 hypotheses concerning possible catastrophes that might befall the world's population in the future. The perspective is pessimistic, but in most cases the hypotheses represent possibilities only. The 1st hypothesis is that demographic imbalances resulting from the excess of births over deaths will result in a total world population too large to be sustained by the earth's finite resources. A return of the great epidemic diseases of the past or the global warming that is already threatening are 2 other possible fates, along with cooling of the atmosphere and reglaciation. Atomic, bacteriologic, and chemical warfare represents a different sort of possibility. A collision of planets or of the numerous manmade satellites now circling the earth might have disastrous consequences, as might earthquakes or floods. The end of the world is foreseen in the Bible, although details are sparse. Finally, AIDS is viewed by many as divine punishment for the perversions of the human population and by others as a viral disease capable of decimating the world's population and returning once thriving areas to an uninhabited state.
Purohit C, Dr Brijesh
The study aims at analyzing economic and policy factors impinging upon population stabilization measures at the district (sub-state level) in India. It reflects upon popularly debated notions, namely, that development is the best contraceptive or whether contraceptive is the best development. In order to reflect upon this notion, we hypothesize that the factors determining the success of population stabilization measures are likely to be different across rich and poor states. It is more likel...
van Druten, N.J.; Constantinescu, R.C.; Schins, J.M.; Nieuwenhuize, H.; Muller, H.G.
Photoionization of the circular 5g Rydberg state in neon by an intense subpicosecond light pulse is studied. Both the photoionization yield and the remaining population are measured. We find that the photoionization yield does not increase when the pulse peak intensity is increased above 60 TW/cm2,
Zippo, Antonio G; Gelsomino, Giuliana; Van Duin, Pieter; Nencini, Sara; Caramenti, Gian Carlo; Valente, Maurizio; Biella, Gabriele E M
The analysis of the brain in terms of integrated neural networks may offer insights on the reciprocal relation between structure and information processing. Even with inherent technical limits, many studies acknowledge neuron spatial arrangements and communication modes as key factors. In this perspective, we investigated the functional organization of neuronal networks by explicitly assuming a specific functional topology, the small-world network. We developed two different computational approaches. Firstly, we asked whether neuronal populations actually express small-world properties during a definite task, such as a learning task. For this purpose we developed the Inductive Conceptual Network (ICN), which is a hierarchical bio-inspired spiking network, capable of learning invariant patterns by using variable-order Markov models implemented in its nodes. As a result, we actually observed small-world topologies during learning in the ICN. Speculating that the expression of small-world networks is not solely related to learning tasks, we then built a de facto network assuming that the information processing in the brain may occur through functional small-world topologies. In this de facto network, synchronous spikes reflected functional small-world network dependencies. In order to verify the consistency of the assumption, we tested the null-hypothesis by replacing the small-world networks with random networks. As a result, only small world networks exhibited functional biomimetic characteristics such as timing and rate codes, conventional coding strategies and neuronal avalanches, which are cascades of bursting activities with a power-law distribution. Our results suggest that small-world functional configurations are liable to underpin brain information processing at neuronal level. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Subjects selected for discussion at the International Conference on Population and Development held from August 28 to September 1, 1979 included world population trends and prospects; government laws and policies; the status of women in family law, literacy and health; employment policies, rural to urban migration and appropriate technology; economic growth with equity and a new economic order; environmental impact and world resources; community participation in motivation and service delivery programs; international coordination of donor policies; research priorities; and governmental responsibilities. The following were among the specific objectives and goals identified: 1) formulate population policies as an integral part of socioeconomic development plans; 2) examine the impact of domestic population trends on health, education, employment, agricultural and industrial development, housing and environmental conditions; 3) strengthen the integration of population programs in all development activities; 4) ensure the basic right of people to decide the number and spacing of their children and ensure that they have the information and means to do so; and 5) promote the role and status of women in the family and society and enhance their access to education, employment, health services and financial credit. A strong commitment was made for implementation of population policies as an integral part of socioeconomic development plans.
The 1992 UN Report on the Status of the World Population included an appeal for immediate and decisive action to achieve balance between population patterns, consumption, and development, so that absolute poverty could be eliminated, basic needs met, and the environment protected. The revised longterm population projection of the UN Population Division indicates an increase from 5.480 billion individuals in mid 1992 to 6 billion in 1998. Annual increments of 97 million people in the next decade will be the largest in history. Over half the increase will occur in Africa and South Asia, and almost all of it will be in Asia, Africa, or Latin America. The UN medium variant projects a near doubling of world population to 10 billion in 2050. The population would continue to increase for another century before reaching 11.6 billion in 2150. The most optimistic hypothesis indicates that world population will reach its maximum in the middle of the next century and thereafter decline. The high variant projects a total of 12.5 billion in 2050 and 20.7 billion a century later. The future course of population growth will depend greatly on actions to reduce family sizes over the next decade. About 83% of population growth in the next decade will be in urban areas. The number of persons working in other countries may reach 70 million, mostly originating in developing countries. Each year over 1 million persons emigrate permanently and almost as many seek asylum in other countries. The number of refugees has increased from 2.8 million in 1976 to 17.3 million in 1990. The report indicates that adequate resources exist for sustained world development if they are prudently used. Living conditions for the 1.1 billion most impoverished world inhabitants must be improved, the legitimate aspirations of the 3 billion persons living above crushing poverty must be met, the ecological costs of development must be reduced, and a more equitable distribution of the benefits of development must
Basset, A.; Fedele, M.; DeAngelis, D.L.
The relationships between optimal foraging of individuals and population stability are addressed by testing, with a spatially explicit model, the effect of patch departure behaviour on individual energetics and population stability. A factorial experimental design was used to analyse the relevance of the behavioural factor in relation to three factors that are known to affect individual energetics; i.e. resource growth rate (RGR), assimilation efficiency (AE), and body size of individuals. The factorial combination of these factors produced 432 cases, and 1000 replicate simulations were run for each case. Net energy intake rates of the modelled consumers increased with increasing RGR, consumer AE, and consumer body size, as expected. Moreover, through their patch departure behaviour, by selecting the resource level at which they departed from the patch, individuals managed to substantially increase their net energy intake rates. Population stability was also affected by the behavioural factors and by the other factors, but with highly non-linear responses. Whenever resources were limiting for the consumers because of low RGR, large individual body size or low AE, population density at the equilibrium was directly related to the patch departure behaviour; on the other hand, optimal patch departure behaviour, which maximised the net energy intake at the individual level, had a negative influence on population stability whenever resource availability was high for the consumers. The consumer growth rate (r) and numerical dynamics, as well as the spatial and temporal fluctuations of resource density, which were the proximate causes of population stability or instability, were affected by the behavioural factor as strongly or even more strongly than by the others factors considered here. Therefore, patch departure behaviour can act as a feedback control of individual energetics, allowing consumers to optimise a potential trade-off between short-term individual fitness
Mccarty, L; Sherman, D
In September 1994 in Cairo, at the third population conference hosted by the United Nations, world leaders will be asked to approve a plan that could stabilize the world population at about 8 billion people by the middle of the next century. Participants will consider interrelated issues: population growth, access to family planning, women's empowerment, sustainable development, poverty, consumption, and the environment. This campaign for a more equitable world is likely to continue after Cairo, with the UN-sponsored social summit in Copenhagen and a women's conference in Beijing slated for next year. The Cairo International Conference on Population and Development will require a new approach to sustainability by balancing environmental protection, economic development, and present and future human needs. The United States has only 5% of the world's population, but it uses 25% of the world's commercial energy, produces more garbage and waste than any other country, and generates 21% of all carbon dioxide emissions, which contribute to global warming. Demands for energy, water and food already cannot be met as natural resources are being exhausted at an alarming rate. The fight over water rights to the Colorado River exemplifies the shrinking natural resource base. In contrast to the Reagan-Bush administration, the Clinton administration restored funding to international family planning agencies and endorsed sustainable development. The US birth rate is back at a 2-decade high, while 60% of pregnancies are unintended. US adolescent pregnancy is the highest among industrialized countries, leading to a cycle of poverty and soaring public costs. Government funding for new contraceptive research has been stagnant because of the pressure of right-wing groups, although finally RU-486 became available for clinical trials. The Cairo conference is likely to recognize the US as the leader in global political issues, however, domestic population and consumption issues have
Velez, C. E.
The use of transformations of orbital equations has been considered in connection with requirements for more accurate data. The reported investigation is concerned with an evaluation of the relative merits of such transformations. The formulations tested include the classical Cowell formulation, the time regularized formulation, stabilization by the use of integrals, and stabilization by the use of elements. It is found that irrespective of efficiency considerations, stabilizing transformation makes it possible to obtain precisions which are unattainable with the Cowell formulations.
Coffman, L M
One of Florida's three leading economic industries is agriculture. Agriculture feeds and enhances the lives of millions of people in Florida, the United States, and the entire world. Agriculture in Florida results in more than $6 billion in farm cash receipts, employment for more than 60,000 people a month, more than $18 billion in farm-related economic activity and stretches from the farm gate to the state's supermarkets with an impact of nearly $45 billion. The domestic and wild animal populations of Florida, our unique relationship to the Caribbean, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Central and South America, as well as tourism, diverse human population growth and immigration, all add to the complexity of an environment capable of establishing many animals, animal pests and diseases not native to the United States. Never before have the dynamics of disease control involved as much challenge and diversity. Is the balance at risk, or is the risk over-balanced? Can science, economics and politics blend to maintain this balance? How will the balance affect world trade, disease control and the animal populations of Florida?
de Chadarevian, Soraya
This essay draws attention to the role of the WHO in shaping research agendas in the biomedical sciences in the postwar era. It considers in particular the genetic studies of human populations that were pursued under the aegis of the WHO from the late 1950s to 1970s. The study provides insights into how human and medical genetics entered the agenda of the WHO. At the same time, the population studies become a focus for tracking changing notions of international relations, cooperation, and development and their impact on research in biology and medicine in the post-World War I era. After a brief discussion of the early history of the WHO and its position in Cold War politics, the essay considers the WHO program in radiation protection and heredity and how the genetic study of "vanishing" human populations and a world-wide genetic study of newborns fitted this broader agenda. It then considers in more detail the kind of support offered by the WHO for these projects. The essay highlights the role of single individuals in taking advantage of WHO support for pushing their research agendas while establishing a trend towards cooperative international projects in biology.
Full Text Available The improvement of transient stability of power system was one of the most challenging research areas in power engineer.The main aim of this paper was transient stability analysis and improvement of IEEE 9 bus system. These studies were computed using POWER WORLD SIMULATOR. The IEEE 9 bus system was modelled in power world simulator and load flow studies were performed to determine pre-fault conditions in the system using Newton-Raphson method. The transient stability analysis was carried out using Runga method during three-phase balanced fault. For the improvement transient stability, the general methods adopted were fast acting exciters, FACT devices and addition of parallel transmission line. These techniques play an important role in improving the transient stability, increasing transmission capacity and damping low frequency oscillations.
The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of
Kulczycki, A; Saxena, P C
This report describes models of the links between population growth, environmental degradation, and health in Arab countries and in the world; management of the commons; urbanization and water as critical issues; and challenges in Lebanon. It is concluded that the complexity of interrelationships is difficult to untangle. Researchers frequently neglect health issues in modeling the relationships. The lack of attention to the health, development, and environment nexus has serious implications in the Middle East and North Africa. In Lebanon, national strategies do not include a national waste management strategy based on reduction, reuse, and recycling. Most Arab countries face the major issue of the lack of adequate planning in many economic sectors, which results in imbalances in supply and demand. Most Arab countries do not have adequate statistical databases upon which to base development, planning, and policy-making. The last census in Lebanon was in 1932. Information is missing on health. Health economics are ignored. It is not possible to estimate the health costs due to deficiencies in sanitation, hygiene, water, and air quality. Capacity building for environmental management and intersectoral collaboration is hampered. Arab countries with large oil reserves have ignored the population and environment links. Poorer countries will suffer the most from limited renewable water resources and their decline due to population growth. The political agenda in Arab countries should give priority to health, environment, development, and population issues.
Kapitza, Sergei P
Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...
Reilev, Mette; Lykkegaard, Jesper; Halling, Anders
Exacerbation frequency is central in treatment strategies for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, whether chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients from the general population with frequent exacerbations continue to have frequent exacerbations over an extended period of time...... is currently unknown. In this study, we aimed to investigate the stability of the frequent exacerbator in a population-based setting. To this end, we conducted a nationwide register-based descriptive study with a 10-year follow-up period of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with at least one...... no additional years as frequent exacerbators, while the minority (6%) remained in this category each year. In conclusion, the rate of exacerbations shows considerable variation over time among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients in the general population. This might hold implications for chronic...
Bao, Z.J.; Jiang, Q.Y.; Yan, W.J.; Cao, Y.J.
In this Letter, we apply the predictive control strategy to suppress the propagation of diseases or viruses in small-world network. The stability of small-world spreading model with predictive controller is investigated. The sufficient and necessary stability condition is given, which is closely related to the controller parameters and small-world rewiring probability p. Our simulations discover a phenomenon that, with the fixed predictive controller parameters, the spreading dynamics become more and more stable when p decreases from a larger value to a smaller one, and the suitable controller parameters can effectively suppress the spreading behaviors even when p varies within the whole spectrum, and the unsuitable controller parameters can lead to oscillation when p lies within a certain range.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Glossina fuscipes, a riverine species of tsetse, is the major vector of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the population dynamics, and specifically the temporal stability, of G. fuscipes will be important for informing vector control activities. We evaluated genetic changes over time in seven populations of the subspecies G. f. fuscipes distributed across southeastern Uganda, including a zone of contact between two historically isolated lineages. A total of 667 tsetse flies were genotyped at 16 microsatellite loci and at one mitochondrial locus. Results Results of an AMOVA indicated that time of sampling did not explain a significant proportion of the variance in allele frequencies observed across all samples. Estimates of differentiation between samples from a single population ranged from approximately 0 to 0.019, using Jost's DEST. Effective population size estimates using momentum-based and likelihood methods were generally large. We observed significant change in mitochondrial haplotype frequencies in just one population, located along the zone of contact. The change in haplotypes was not accompanied by changes in microsatellite frequencies, raising the possibility of asymmetric mating compatibility in this zone. Conclusion Our results suggest that populations of G. f. fuscipes were stable over the 8-12 generations studied. Future studies should aim to reconcile these data with observed seasonal fluctuations in the apparent density of tsetse.
Full Text Available Our results have shown the wide diversity of parasites within New World Leishmania. Biochemical and molecular characterization of species within the genus has revealed that much of the population heterogeneity has a genetic basis. The source of genetic diversity among Leishmania appears to arise from predominantly asexual, clonal reproduction, although occasional bouts of sexual reproduction can not be ruled out. Genetic variation is extensive with some clones widely distributed and others seemingly unique and localized to a particular endemic focus. Epidemiological studies of leishmaniasis has been directed to the ecology and dynamics of transmission of Leishmania species/variants, particularly in localized areas. Future research using molecular techniques should aim to identify and follow Leishmania types in nature and correlate genetic typing with important clinical characteristics such as virulence, pathogenicity, drug resistance and antigenic variation. The epidemiological significance of such variation not only has important implications for the control of the leishmaniases, but would also help to elucidate the evolutionary biology of the causative agents.
Discusses current trends and problems relating to world population, and focuses on action being taken by the United Nations. This year (1974) has been designated World Population Year, and will be highlighted by a conference in Bucharest in which all 130 member governments will meet to confront the issue of population control. (JR)
Full Text Available Since the end of the Second World War the world economy has, apart from brief interludes of price stability, been in the grip of continuous inflation. No country seems to have managed to escape this world inflation entirely, although a few have made the very greatest efforts to do so. The present article considers why these efforts were in vain and if there really is no defence against “imported” world inflation. The author analyses the four types of policy for avoiding inflation - restrictive monetary and fiscal policy, export of capital, periodic changes in exchange parities and flexible exchange rates. The analysis suggests that the first two are least recommendable in the face of chronic balance of payments surpluses because they do not eradicate the surplus itself and can be sustained for only a relatively short period of time. The latter two do eliminate the external surplus, however, in the face of continuous world inflation, periodic revaluation does so only temporarily while flexible rates represent a permanent solution. The author concludes that world inflation can be checked only if there is an international monetary order which keeps reserves so scarce that no country feels able to allow inflation to proceed.JEL: E31, E42, E52, E62
A serious psychological barrier to acceptance of the concept for achieving the nuclear-weapon-free world is fear of facing the prospect that one or more nations or extremist political groups might develop their own nuclear weapons. Actually this is a question of stability of the nuclear-weapon-free world. From this point of view the most effective system of verification is an absolute necessity. This system must ensure detection of so called undeclared nuclear activity at early stage. Scientists of Russian nuclear centers are working today on solving this problem. This paper is considered to be a comprehensive attempt to analyze the technical and organizational aspects of the problems of transition to a nuclear-weapons-free world, setting aside the difficulties of resolving purely political problems
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) Subnational Administrative Boundaries are the basis of the population data products in GPWv3. Due to copyright...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Basic Demographic Characteristics, Revision 10 consists of estimates of human population by age and sex as counts...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Data Quality Indicators, Revision 10 consists of three data layers created to provide context for the population...
Ruijven, van J.; Berendse, F.
Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that diversity enhances the temporal stability of a community. However, the effect of diversity on the stability of the individual populations within the community remains unclear. Some models predict a decrease of population stability with diversity,
The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…
Bongaarts, John; Sinding, Steven
Population growth remains rapid in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, despite substantial AIDS mortality. Voluntary family-planning programs reduce unplanned pregnancies by providing access to and information about contraception and by reducing socioeconomic obstacles to use. With sufficient political will and resources, well-run voluntary programs have been shown to bring about sustained declines in fertility and population growth across much of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, simply by permitting people to realize their individual reproductive goals. Such programs represent a cost-effective approach to relieving population pressures, stimulating economic development, improving health, and enhancing human freedom.
.... One popular view envisions global aging as a looming catastrophe, as populations top-heavy with frail, retired elderly drain pension and social security funds, overwhelm health care systems, and rely...
.... One popular view envisions global aging as a looming catastrophe, as populations top-heavy with frail, retired elderly drain pension and social security funds, overwhelm health care systems, and rely...
Van Bavel, Jan
At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between th...
Van Bavel, J
At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing -exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows. Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections.
Green, Marshall; Fearey, Robert A.
This study addresses the central issues of the population explosion and what can be done about it. It relates largely to developing nations. Chapters are presented on: (1) Basic World Population Facts; (2) Changing Patterns of Population Growth; (3) Consequences of Excessive Growth; (4) What Is Being Done; (5) What More Can Be Done; and (6) U.S.…
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) National Boundaries are derived from the land area grid to show the outlines of pixels (cells) that contain...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) National Identifier Grid is derived from the land area grid to create a raster surface where pixels (cells) that...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Land and Water Area, Revision 10 consists of two rasters that measure surface areas of land and water in square...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) National Identifier Grid, Revision 10 is a raster representation of nation-states in GPWv4 for use in aggregating...
Anderson, Randall C.
The author contends that students must be alerted to the dangers of overpopulation of the world and to the methods that exist to control population growth. He suggests topics for student inquiry. (CK)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) Land and Geographic Unit Area Grids measure land areas in square kilometers and the mean unit size...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Data Quality Indicators consist of three data layers created to provide additional information about the quality...
Murphy, Elaine M.
Student and teacher materials are provided for a secondary unit on world hunger. The student materials are contained in a module entitled "Food and Population: A Global Concern," distributed with the newsletter "Interchange." The teacher materials are contained in the issue of the newsletter itself, subtitled "The Paradoxes of World Hunger." A…
Piotrow, Phyllis T., Ed.
This report contains ten papers dealing with population growth that focus attention on the quality of life in human settlements and the values and practical policies to be sought. Some of the papers were prepared for the Habitat Conference convened in Vancouver by world governments in June 1976. The first paper discusses world action plans for…
Murphey, D D
This article is a review of the book "The Immigration Invasion" by Wayne Lutton and John Tanton (1994). The book is devoted to considerable discussion of the impact of immigration on health and welfare costs, labor market impact, the politics of race, crime, and quality of life; the facts of immigration and immigration legislation are also addressed. The review places emphasis on the issue of the "intangible" consequences of immigration for the US, such as the loss of a cultural identity as non-Hispanic White. There were almost 880,000 immigrants in 1993. US population is 255 million. Population projections are for 380 million in 2050, of which 52% will be non-Hispanic Whites and 48% will be minorities. News reports illustrate the extent of the invasion: 400,000 Haitians in New York City alone. The geographic areas most impacted include California, Florida, and Texas. Reference is made to a Lawrence Auster analysis of the impact of immigration on the whole society of the US and Japanese professor Yuji Aida's comments that at some point minority groups in the US will assert their power and the country may become ungovernable. The issue of national identity is considered as obscured by "ideological smog," which is manifested in confusing ideas about racism and the "vagaries of classical liberal thought." Auster is cited as saying that "diversity continues to expand beyond the point where genuine assimilation is possible, and the ideal of equality will also decline." The idea of common citizenship is assumed to be in decline. The costs, according to Lutton and Tanton, are identified as immigrants' use of the welfare system, public education, and the Earned Income Tax Credit. Illegal aliens are protected from deportation. Immigrants bring in tuberculosis infections. The loss of professional engineering jobs to the foreign-born becomes acceptable. The teaching of multiculturalism challenge one's identity as an American. Over 25% of federal inmates are non-US citizens
We show that a simple model of an evolving sexual population, which dates back to some of the earliest work in theoretical population genetics, exhibits an unexpected and previously unobserved phase transition between ordered and disordered states. This behavior is not present in populations evolving asexually without recombination and is thus important in any comparison of sexual and asexual populations. In order to calculate the details of the phase transition, we use techniques from statistical physics. We introduce the correlation of the population as the order parameter of the system and use maximum entropy inference to find the state of the population at any time.
Iqbal, J.; Dai, F.; Raja, I.A.
In the last few decades, landslide dams have received greater attention of researchers, as they have caused loss to property and human lives. Over 261 large-sized landslide dams from different countries of the world with volume greater than 1 x 105 m have been reviewed for this study. The data collected for this study shows that 58% of the catastrophic landslides were triggered by earthquakes and 21 % by rainfall, revealing that earthquake and rainfall are the two major triggers, accounting for 75% of large-sized landslide dams. These land-slides were most frequent during last two decades (1990-2010) throughout the world. The mean landslide dam volume of the studied cases was 53.39 x 10 m with mean dam height of 71.98 m, while the mean lake volume was found to be 156.62 x 10 m. Failure of these large landslide dams pose a severe threat to the property and people living downstream, hence immediate attention is required to deal with this problem. A stability index (SI) has been derived on the basis on 59 large-sized landslide dams (out of the 261 dams) with complete parametric information. (author)
Reed, P. M.
Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.
Melé, Marta; Javed, Asif; Pybus, Marc; Zalloua, Pierre; Haber, Marc; Comas, David; Netea, Mihai G; Balanovsky, Oleg; Balanovska, Elena; Jin, Li; Yang, Yajun; Pitchappan, R M; Arunkumar, G; Parida, Laxmi; Calafell, Francesc; Bertranpetit, Jaume
The information left by recombination in our genomes can be used to make inferences on our recent evolutionary history. Specifically, the number of past recombination events in a population sample is a function of its effective population size (Ne). We have applied a method, Identifying Recombination in Sequences (IRiS), to detect specific past recombination events in 30 Old World populations to infer their Ne. We have found that sub-Saharan African populations have an Ne that is approximately four times greater than those of non-African populations and that outside of Africa, South Asian populations had the largest Ne. We also observe that the patterns of recombinational diversity of these populations correlate with distance out of Africa if that distance is measured along a path crossing South Arabia. No such correlation is found through a Sinai route, suggesting that anatomically modern humans first left Africa through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait rather than through present Egypt.
The world population will reach 7 billion in late 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This article looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. During this period, world population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell during most of the period, and poverty declined significantly in much of the developing world. The article considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain.
Salas, R M
Original forecasts of world population size made in the 1950's assumed falling death rates and stable birth rates. Birth rates instead began to fall with world growth rates slowing from 1.99% in 1960 through 1965 to 1.72% in 1975 to 1980 and revised projection of world population by the year 2000 is now 6.1 billion, 40% higher than today. There are several reasons for this declining growth rate. Many governments now recognize the important effects population growth and spatial distribution have on a country's economic and social development and this recognition has led to the development of specific programs and policies to deal with population problems. The development and implementation of these programs has led to the recognition of several important factors in population growth. The World Fertility Survey found that employment for women and fertility are linked. Women who work, excluding the case of agricultural work, tend to have smaller families. Literacy and education affect not only the number of children a woman has but also their chances of survival. The best way to reduce birth and death rates in developing countries is by increasing the education and employment of women, improving access to health and family planning services, and to be aware of changes in attitudes to family formation. Another reason involves the effective delivery of services, especially education about sanitation. A 3rd reason is that the proportion of national budgets devoted to population planning has dramatically increased. Lastly, international assistance for population planning has doubled since 1970. There remain many problems. Although the global fertility rate has declined, many countries, especially in Africa, still have high population growth rates and low life expectancies. There are expected to be vast increases in urban populations, proportions of elderly in the population, and large international and internal migrations as people seek work further from home. What is
Warner, Kevin J.; Jones, Glenn A.
Approximately 1.1 billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity. The World Bank's Sustainable Energy for All initiative seeks to provide universal access to energy by the year 2030. The current world population of 7.3 billion is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 11.2 billion by 2100. Population growth and increasing energy access are incongruous with forecasts of declining non-renewable energy production and climate change concerns. Previous studies have examined these issues at global or at individual regional or national levels. Here we use a nine region model of the world with two per capita energy consumption scenarios to find that significant restructuring of the current energy mix will be necessary in order to support population projections. Modelled interaction between the regions highlights the importance of examining energy and population concerns in a systemic manner, as each of the nine regions faces unique energy-population challenges in the coming decades. As non-renewable energy reserves decline globally, the transition to a renewable energy infrastructure will develop at different times in each region. - Highlights: • A 9-region model of energy, population, and development through 2100 is presented. • Developing >50% renewable energy is required in 8 regions, though not concurrently. • Population growth and development will compound energy scarcity issues. • Early and significant renewable energy investment is key to realizing development. • Each region will face unique, though interlacing, challenges this century.
Kerr, L A; Cadrin, S X; Secor, D H
Understanding mechanisms that support long-term persistence of populations and sustainability of productive fisheries is a priority in fisheries management. Complex spatial structure within populations is increasingly viewed as a result of a plastic behavioral response that can have consequences for the dynamics of a population. We incorporated spatial structure and environmental forcing into a population model to examine the consequences for population stability (coefficient of variation of spawning-stock biomass), resilience (time to recover from disturbance), and productivity (spawning-stock biomass). White perch (Morone americana) served as a model species that exhibits simultaneous occurrence of migratory and resident groups within a population. We evaluated the role that contingents (behavioral groups within populations that exhibit divergent life histories) play in mitigating population responses to unfavorable environmental conditions. We used age-structured models that incorporated contingent-specific vital rates to simulate population dynamics of white perch in a sub-estuary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. The dynamics of the population were most sensitive to the proportion of individuals within each contingent and to a lesser degree to the level of correlation in recruitment between contingents in their responses to the environment. Increased representation of the dispersive contingent within populations resulted in increased productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Empirical evidence from the Patuxent River white perch population was consistent with these findings. A high negative correlation in resident and dispersive contingent recruitment dynamics resulted in increased productivity and stability, with little effect on resilience. With high positive correlation between contingent recruitments, the model showed similar responses in population productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Because contingent structure involves differing
Of all the climatic variables in the environment of termites in southern Kenya, only rainfall shows marked seasonality and unpredictability. But despite the great variability in rainfall patterns, the populations of termite mounds of various species in three well-separated study areas remained remarkably constant over a period ...
Lampe John R.
Full Text Available This paper pays brief attention, although more than the recent flood of 1914 centenary books, to economic causes of the First World War before turning to it fateful economic consequences for Southeastern Europe. The Austrian lack of economic leverage over Serbia is cited as a reason for its resort to the military option. At the war’s end, the option of the victorious powers to provide significant economic relief to the region where the conflict had begun was not taken. After tracking the brief, limited assistance provided, the paper reviews to the massive economic problems confronting four of the five of independent states, neglecting Albania as a special case, that could now be called Southeastern Europe. First Greece and then Bulgaria faced forced inflow of refugees. Romania and the Yugoslav Kingdom faced the economic integration of large new, formerly Austro-Hungarian lands. All of them were left not only with war deaths and destruction but also with large war debts, or in Bulgaria’s case, reparations. The paper concentrates on the primary Western response to these four economies, an effort led by the Bank of England to replace immediate postwar inflation with the deflation needed to reestablish currencies with prewar convertibility to gold, now with Pound Sterling added to a gold reserve standard. Independent central banks, the major positive legacy of this initiative, were to lead the way. But the financial stability that all four economies did eventually achieve in the 1920s served only to reduce their war debts. Otherwise, maintaining the fixed and overvalued exchange rates restricted domestic credit, encouraged protective tariffs, and did not attract the foreign capital, especially new state loans, that this emphasis on a single, European financial framework had promised. A concluding section considers the lessons learned from a postwar period that promoted economic disintegration by the 1930s. Looking at the period since the end of
Mikander, Pia; Holm, Gunilla
The population of the world is growing and moving. The overwhelming majority of people are on the move inside their own country and mostly towards cities while a minority moves from non-Western areas to the West. In Finnish geography, history and social science school textbooks, this mobility tends to be depicted differently depending on whether…
Fejer, René; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm; Hartvigsen, Jan
The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of neck pain (NP) in the world population and to identify areas of methodological variation between studies. A systematic search was conducted in five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, OSH-ROM, and PsycINFO), followed by a screening...
Kick, E L; Burns, T J; Davis, B; Murray, D A; Murray, D A
World system theory posits that core nations control global production processes through their economic and political-military strength, while countries at the periphery remain technologically underdeveloped and operate from a position of dependency. Rapid changes such as population growth and rural encroachment have spurred environmental degradation in the intermediary semi-periphery countries. The effects of world system structure on national deforestation were investigated in a quantitative, cross-national analysis of data from 60 core, semi-peripheral, and peripheral countries. This analysis revealed that rural population growth has had a deleterious effect on forestation throughout the world system. However, the impact of general population growth has been negative only in non-core countries. As hypothesized, forest exports have resulted in ecologic devastation in the periphery of the world system, but have exerted a favorable effect for core countries where reforestation programs dominate. These findings suggest that population growth per se is not the critical factor in environmental degradation. Urged are further quantitative evaluations of the environmental impact of other international commodity trades.
plummeting per capita income (and fabulously wealthy rulers to remind the poor exactly how poor they are), environmental degradation, surly neighbors, and a... overpopulation stressors.26 No matter what population estimates the Kingdom may provide now or in the future, the general consensus is that Saudi...Small group of power brokers, limited power - Representation - Increased rights Low ability to mobilize masses to dissent. Islamo-Liberal
Asharaf Abdul Salam
Full Text Available The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii explore its components, and (iii understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012 in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.
Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali
The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.
The professional achievements of Halfdan Mahler, for which he was awarded the 1995 UN World Population Prize, are summarized, and Dr. Mahler's acceptance speech is presented. Dr. Mahler worked for reproductive health and sustainable development during his six years as secretary general of the IPPF. Under his leadership, the IPPF established world standards for family planning and reproductive health. Dr. Mahler also guided creation and implementation of the long-term IPPF strategic plan, Vision 2000. During his tenure as director general of the World Health Organization from 1973 to 1988, he established the special program of education, development, and training for research in human reproduction. Dr. Mahler's acceptance speech sketched a world of the future in which women control their reproductive lives and enjoy equality with men in work and at home, where adolescents understand and control their sexuality, where all children are desired and cared for, and where hard work brings success even in the poorest population sectors. The challenges of achieving this vision are enormous. The world's population will have doubled to 10 billion, and tensions and inequities will persist. But if the vision is not fulfilled, the present population will triple to 15 billion and competition for every kind of resource will be intolerable. In order to succeed, the rights to free and informed reproductive decision making must be guaranteed for every couple. Harmful practices that violate the right to autonomous reproductive decision making, such as early marriage or female genital mutilation, must be eliminated. Governments must commit themselves to educating and providing resources to women so that they can exercise their rights. Family planning services must be extended to the poor and marginal population sectors that still are denied access, and to adolescents who are at risk of unwanted pregnancy and disease.
Full Text Available We present some basic discrete models in populations dynamics of single species with several age classes. Starting with the basic Beverton-Holt model that describes the change of single species we discuss its basic properties such as a convergence of all solutions to the equilibrium, oscillation of solutions about the equilibrium solutions, Allee’s effect, and Jillson’s effect. We consider the effect of the constant and periodic immigration and emigration on the global properties of Beverton-Holt model. We also consider the effect of the periodic environment on the global properties of Beverton-Holt model.
Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang
Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Count Adjusted to Match 2015 Revision of UN WPP Country Totals, Revision 10 consists of estimates of...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Density Adjusted to Match 2015 Revision of UN WPP Country Totals, Revision 10 consists of estimates of...
Warner, Kevin; Jones, Glenn
Population growth and increasing energy access are incongruous with forecasts of declining non-renewable energy production and climate change concerns. The current world population of 7.3 billion is projected to reach 8.4 billion by 2030 and 11.2 billion by 2100. Currently, 1.2 billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity. The World Bank's Sustainable Energy for All initiative seeks to provide universal global access to energy by the year 2030. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to energy mix is derived from 91% non-renewable (oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear) and 9% renewable (e.g., hydropower, wind, solar, biofuels) sources. Here we use a nine region model of the world to quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios and find that significant restructuring of the current energy mix will be necessary to support the 2014 UN population projections. We also find that renewable energy production must comprise 87-94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a energy use scenario. Each of the nine regions faces unique energy-population challenges in the coming decades. We find that global energy demand in 2100 will be more than double that of today; of this demand, 82% will need to be derived from renewable sources. More renewable energy production will be required in 2100 than the 2014 total global energy production. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the energy as quickly as possible in order to supply the projected world energy demand and to limit warming to 2.5-3°C by 2100.
Merdan, H.; Duman, O.
This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a general discrete-time population dynamics involving predation with and without Allee effects which occur at low population density. The mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that the Allee effect has a stabilizing role on the local stability of the positive equilibrium points of this model.
In his PAA presidential address and corresponding article in Demography, David Lam (Demography 48:1231-1262, 2011) documented the extraordinary progress of humankind-vis-à-vis poverty alleviation, increased schooling, and reductions in mortality and fertility-since 1960 and noted that he expects further improvements by 2050. However, although Lam briefly covered the problems of global warming and pollution, he did not address several other major environmental problems that are closely related to the rapid human population growth in recent decades and to the progress he described. This commentary highlights some of these problems to provide a more balanced perspective on the situation of the world. Specifically, humans currently are using resources at an unsustainable level. Groundwater depletion and overuse of river water are major problems on multiple continents. Fossil fuel resources and several minerals are being depleted. Other major problems include deforestation, with the annual forest clearing globally estimated to be an area the size of New York State; and species extinction, with rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than background rates. Principles of ecological economics are presented that allow an integration of ecology and economic development and better potential for preservation of the world for future generations.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Populations of the Americas were founded by early migrants from Asia, and some have experienced recent genetic admixture. To better characterize the native and non-native ancestry components in populations from the Americas, we analyzed 815,377 autosomal SNPs, mitochondrial hypervariable segments I and II, and 36 Y-chromosome STRs from 24 Mesoamerican Totonacs and 23 South American Bolivians. Results and Conclusions We analyzed common genomic regions from native Bolivian and Totonac populations to identify 324 highly predictive Native American ancestry informative markers (AIMs. As few as 40–50 of these AIMs perform nearly as well as large panels of random genome-wide SNPs for predicting and estimating Native American ancestry and admixture levels. These AIMs have greater New World vs. Old World specificity than previous AIMs sets. We identify highly-divergent New World SNPs that coincide with high-frequency haplotypes found at similar frequencies in all populations examined, including the HGDP Pima, Maya, Colombian, Karitiana, and Surui American populations. Some of these regions are potential candidates for positive selection. European admixture in the Bolivian sample is approximately 12%, though individual estimates range from 0–48%. We estimate that the admixture occurred ~360–384 years ago. Little evidence of European or African admixture was found in Totonac individuals. Bolivians with pre-Columbian mtDNA and Y-chromosome haplogroups had 5–30% autosomal European ancestry, demonstrating the limitations of Y-chromosome and mtDNA haplogroups and the need for autosomal ancestry informative markers for assessing ancestry in admixed populations.
Full Text Available A clear understanding of population structure is essential for assessing conservation status and implementing management strategies. A small, non-migratory population of humpback whales in the Arabian Sea is classified as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, an assessment constrained by a lack of data, including limited understanding of its relationship to other populations. We analysed 11 microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA sequences extracted from 67 Arabian Sea humpback whale tissue samples and compared them to equivalent datasets from the Southern Hemisphere and North Pacific. Results show that the Arabian Sea population is highly distinct; estimates of gene flow and divergence times suggest a Southern Indian Ocean origin but indicate that it has been isolated for approximately 70,000 years, remarkable for a species that is typically highly migratory. Genetic diversity values are significantly lower than those obtained for Southern Hemisphere populations and signatures of ancient and recent genetic bottlenecks were identified. Our findings suggest this is the world's most isolated humpback whale population, which, when combined with low population abundance estimates and anthropogenic threats, raises concern for its survival. We recommend an amendment of the status of the population to "Critically Endangered" on the IUCN Red List.
Pomilla, Cristina; Amaral, Ana R; Collins, Tim; Minton, Gianna; Findlay, Ken; Leslie, Matthew S; Ponnampalam, Louisa; Baldwin, Robert; Rosenbaum, Howard
A clear understanding of population structure is essential for assessing conservation status and implementing management strategies. A small, non-migratory population of humpback whales in the Arabian Sea is classified as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, an assessment constrained by a lack of data, including limited understanding of its relationship to other populations. We analysed 11 microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA sequences extracted from 67 Arabian Sea humpback whale tissue samples and compared them to equivalent datasets from the Southern Hemisphere and North Pacific. Results show that the Arabian Sea population is highly distinct; estimates of gene flow and divergence times suggest a Southern Indian Ocean origin but indicate that it has been isolated for approximately 70,000 years, remarkable for a species that is typically highly migratory. Genetic diversity values are significantly lower than those obtained for Southern Hemisphere populations and signatures of ancient and recent genetic bottlenecks were identified. Our findings suggest this is the world's most isolated humpback whale population, which, when combined with low population abundance estimates and anthropogenic threats, raises concern for its survival. We recommend an amendment of the status of the population to "Critically Endangered" on the IUCN Red List.
The paper deals with the way populism manifested in the Arab World. The best example of populism is provided by Gamal Abdel Nasser, who exceeded the borders of his country and managed to mobilize a large part of the Middle East. The paper analyses his legitimation mechanisms, which endured his access to masses, thus turning him into the voice of the Arabs for a decade. The emergence and legitimation of Nasser’s political movement was possible due to the interaction of local and global factors...
Full Text Available Almost one million soldiers from England and Wales died during the First and Second World War whilst serving in the British Armed Forces. Although many articles and books have been published that commemorate the military efforts of the British Armed Forces, data on the demographic aspects of British army losses remain fragmentary. Official population statistics on England and Wales have provided continuous series on the civilian population, including mortality and fertility over the two war periods. The combatant population and combatant mortality have not been incorporated in the official statistics, which shows large out-migration at the beginning and large in-migration towards the end of the war periods. In order to estimate the dynamics of the total population and its excess mortality, we introduce in this paper a model of population flows and mortality in times of war operations. The model can be applied to a detailed reconstruction of war losses, using various shapes of the input data. This enables us to arrive at detailed estimates of war-related losses in England and Wales during the two world wars. Our results agree with elements of data provided by prior studies.
Brissenden, Jane E; Kidd, Judith R; Evsanaa, Baigalmaa; Togtokh, Ariunaa J; Pakstis, Andrew J; Friedlaender, Françoise; Kidd, Kenneth K; Roscoe, Janet M
Genetic data on North and Central Asian populations are underrepresented in the literature, especially for autosomal markers. In the present study we used 812 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across all the human autosomes and extensively studied at Yale to examine the affinities of two recently collected samples of populations: rural and cosmopolitan Mongolians from Ulaanbaatar and nomadic, Turkic-speaking Tsaatan from Mongolia near the Siberian border. We compare these two populations with each other and with a global set of populations and discuss their relationships to New World populations. Specifically, we analyze data on 521 autosomal loci (single SNPs and multi-SNP haplotypes) studied in 57 populations representing all the major geographical regions of the world. We conclude that these North and Central Asian populations are genetically distinct from all other populations in our study and may be close to the ancestral lineage leading to the New World populations.
... with developing and deploying nuclear weapons. The US, in the past, has refused to provide technical assistance to enhance the safety, security, and stability of proliferating countries' nuclear arsenals-we believe this policy...
Van der Zwaan, B.; Petersen, A. (eds.)
The world is going through the profound changes of a demographic transition. Population growth is best taken care of when women and men are able to choose freely and responsibly their number of children. The most important aspects are the availability of reliable and safe means and the access women have to knowledge, resources and decision power. General education is a prerequisite. (Groningen Manifesto, statement no. 7). The current international, political, economic and financial order still primarily reflects the claims of international trade. There is a lack of public awareness as to the inescapable limits of the planet's resources and we hardly seem to be moving towards a sustainable and equitable world. The contributors to this volume provide an up-to-date and forceful exposition of this problematique. In the aftermath of the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg, they suggest topical ways to alter the world's course. The keys to reaching a sustainable world, in which the planet is equitably shared among humans and other species, are to consider the impact of our collective actions at longer timescales and to deal head-on with the interconnected issues of population pressure, consumption volume and species loss. The volume displays a multidisciplinary and multicultural approach involving both scientific and ethical arguments. It is of interest to a wide audience of scholars and concerned citizens. With contributions by: Ernst Ulrich von Weizsaecker, Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek, Johan van Klinken, Anne Ehrlich, Sergey Kapitza, Roefie Hueting, Jan van Hooff, Lucas Reijnders, Arthur Petersen, Bob van der Zwaan, Vandana Shiva, Radha Holla, Koo van der Wal, Bas de Gaay Fortman, Atiq Rahman and Jane Goodall.
Kilinc, M.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Kurioka, K.; Wood, S.; D'Argent, N.; Martin, D.; McHugh, I.; Tapper, N.; McGuire, D.
Natural forests store vast amounts of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, and play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Given the significance of natural forests, there is a lack of carbon accounting of primary forests that are undisturbed by human activities. One reason for this lack of interest stems from ecological orthodoxy that suggests that primary forests should be close to dynamic equilibrium, in that Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) approaches zero. However, recent results from the northern hemisphere and tropics, using eddy covariance flux towers, indicate that primary forests are a greater sink than first thought. The role of evergreen primary forests in Australian carbon balance studies remain uncertain and hence may function differently to their deciduous counterparts in the Northern Hemisphere. In order to address the lack of baseline carbon accounts, an undisturbed, 300 year old Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) ecosystem, located in the Central Highlands of Victoria (Australia) was selected as a permanent study site to investigate carbon and water budgets over diurnal, seasonal and annual cycles. Mountain Ash trees are the world's tallest angiosperms (flowering plants), and one of the largest carbon reservoirs in the biosphere, with an estimated 1900 tC ha-1. A 110 m tall micrometeorological tower that includes eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in August 2005. An independent biometric approach quantifying the annual net gain or loss of carbon was also made within close proximity to the flux tower. Analysis of NEP in 2006 suggests that the ecosystem acted as a carbon sink of 2.5 tC ha-1 yr-1. Woody and soil biomass increment for the same year was estimated to be 2.8 tC ha-1yr-1, in which nearly half of the biomass production was partitioned into the aboveground woody tissue. These results indicate that temperate primary forests act as carbon sinks, and are able to maintain their carbon sink status due to their uneven stand
Zhang, Lai; Pedersen, Michael; Lin, Zhigui
delayed system consisting of a renewal equation for the consumer population birth rate and a delayed differential equation for the resource. Results show that the size- and stage-structured models differ considerably with respect to equilibrium stability, although the two models have completely identical...
Faddy, Malcolm J; Gosden, Matthew D; Gosden, Roger G
Enormous unmet needs for infertility treatment exist because access to assisted reproductive technologies is demographically skewed. Since the first IVF baby in 1978, the number of people conceived by reproductive technology has grown much faster than expected, reaching several million today and rapidly approaching 0.1% of the total world population. As more patients build families, and their children in turn become parents, the number owing their existence to assisted reproductive technologies, either directly or indirectly, will expand tremendously in future decades, but no attempts have been made hitherto to project the magnitude. We have projected growth to the year 2100, along with the fractional contribution to world population. The chief variable driving growth is access to fertility services. If it stagnates at current levels of about 400,000 babies per year, an estimated 157 million people alive at the end of the century will owe their lives to assisted reproductive technologies (1.4% of global population), but at an arbitrary upper limit of 30,000 extra births annually there will be 394 million additional people alive (3.5%). As the conquest of infertility continues, individuals who owe their lives to assisted reproductive technologies will quietly make a significant contribution to demographic growth as well as social progress. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
There has been considerable national and international debate over the past two years on population-related issues. Women have sought to affirm their right to control fertility and to have access to health services while criticizing current population policies and programs. A new paradigm for population policy has emerged from the debate, one which focuses upon providing broadly defined reproductive health services and acknowledges women's reproductive rights and their need for empowerment. This new population policy is embodied in the World Program of Action (WPOA) adopted September 1994 at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, Egypt. WPOA is the main document emerging from the ICPD. It was developed and negotiated by participating governments during three preparatory committee meetings leading up to the conference and at ICPD itself, where it was adopted. The WPOA is slated for approval by the UN General Assembly during its current session. The WPOA is evidence of how effective women were in making women's rights and health the focus of an international document. The author discusses politics at the ICPD, the WPOA, funding the WPOA's implementation, the road ahead, and the power of women's strategies.
Saif, R; Awan, A R; Lyons, L; Gandolfi, B; Tayyab, M; Ellahi Babar, M; Wasim, M
Current research highlights the Hspb1 based screening of eight cat populations of the world to investigate the association of newly found locus within cat mammary tumors. Total 180 cats were screened on the basis of Hspb1 4 bp deletion locus (1514-1517del4) which was observed in six mammary tumor cases in Siamese cat breed. Case-control association study revealed the non-significance with P=0.201 and an overall mutant allele frequency of 0.30 ranging from 0.20-0.40 was observed in other cat populations. Similarly, HWE was also obeyed in combined population samples with P=0.860 and found non-significant with range of 0.429-0.708 in other non-Pakistani cat populations as well. These results might be helpful to understand the association of this novel locus in a better way with large sample size of cases and may also serve as a potential marker for mammary tumor diagnosis, particularly in cats and generally in all other animal populations in comparative genetics and genomics context.
In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world population explosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century in question, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvement in life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation of information and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays a crucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant m...
Gordon, T A C; Harding, H R; Clever, F K; Davidson, I K; Davison, W; Montgomery, D W; Weatherhead, R C; Windsor, F M; Armstrong, J D; Bardonnet, A; Bergman, E; Britton, J R; Côté, I M; D'agostino, D; Greenberg, L A; Harborne, A R; Kahilainen, K K; Metcalfe, N B; Mills, S C; Milner, N J; Mittermayer, F H; Montorio, L; Nedelec, S L; Prokkola, J M; Rutterford, L A; Salvanes, A G V; Simpson, S D; Vainikka, A; Pinnegar, J K; Santos, E M
Populations of fishes provide valuable services for billions of people, but face diverse and interacting threats that jeopardize their sustainability. Human population growth and intensifying resource use for food, water, energy and goods are compromising fish populations through a variety of mechanisms, including overfishing, habitat degradation and declines in water quality. The important challenges raised by these issues have been recognized and have led to considerable advances over past decades in managing and mitigating threats to fishes worldwide. In this review, we identify the major threats faced by fish populations alongside recent advances that are helping to address these issues. There are very significant efforts worldwide directed towards ensuring a sustainable future for the world's fishes and fisheries and those who rely on them. Although considerable challenges remain, by drawing attention to successful mitigation of threats to fish and fisheries we hope to provide the encouragement and direction that will allow these challenges to be overcome in the future. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Full Text Available We consider a solution of the effective four-dimensional Einstein equations, obtained from the general relativistic Schwarzschild metric through the principle of Minimal Geometric Deformation (MGD. Since the brane tension can, in general, introduce new singularities on a relativistic Eötvös brane model in the MGD framework, we require the absence of observed singularities, in order to constrain the brane tension. We then study the corresponding Bose–Einstein condensate (BEC gravitational system and determine the critical stability region of BEC MGD stellar configurations. Finally, the critical stellar densities are shown to be related with critical points of the information entropy.
Casadio, Roberto, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna, via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bologna, viale B. Pichat 6, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Rocha, Roldão da, E-mail: email@example.com [CMCC, Universidade Federal do ABC, 09210-580, Santo André, SP (Brazil)
We consider a solution of the effective four-dimensional Einstein equations, obtained from the general relativistic Schwarzschild metric through the principle of Minimal Geometric Deformation (MGD). Since the brane tension can, in general, introduce new singularities on a relativistic Eötvös brane model in the MGD framework, we require the absence of observed singularities, in order to constrain the brane tension. We then study the corresponding Bose–Einstein condensate (BEC) gravitational system and determine the critical stability region of BEC MGD stellar configurations. Finally, the critical stellar densities are shown to be related with critical points of the information entropy.
Correia, I; Batista, S; Marques, I B; Sousa, M; Ferreira, R; Nunes, C; Macário, M C; Sousa, L
Fingolimod is an oral treatment for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) with established efficacy in clinical trials. Post-marketing studies are important to assess its effectiveness in real-world populations. To report the effectiveness and safety of fingolimod in a real-world population. A retrospective study of patients with RRMS treated with fingolimod for at least six months. The demographic characteristics, Annualized Relapse Rate (ARR), Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS), previous treatments and Adverse Events (AE) were analysed. 104 patients were included, with a mean treatment duration of 21.06 months. First-line disease modifying therapy failure patients (n=56) had an ARR decrease of 68.53% (1.43 vs. 0.45, p2.0, p<0.001) and 91.07% showed no disability progression. In patients previously treated with natalizumab as a second-line drug mainly switched due to safety concerns (n=41), although the differences were not statistically significant, both the ARR and EDSS increased in 41.46% and 19.51% of patients, respectively. In treatment-naive patients (n=7) the ARR decreased 94.90% (1.57 vs. 0.08, p=0.027) and there was no disability progression. 56.7% of all patients experienced AE not considered serious in any of the cases. In this population, fingolimod was an effective treatment after first-line treatment failure, decreasing both the ARR and EDSS, and may be an effective option after natalizumab. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available As of today, the most credible scientific paradigm pertaining to the origin of life on Earth is undoubtedly the RNA World scenario. It is built on the assumption that catalytically active replicators (most probably RNA-like macromolecules may have been responsible for booting up life almost four billion years ago. The many different incarnations of nucleotide sequence (string replicator models proposed recently are all attempts to explain on this basis how the genetic information transfer and the functional diversity of prebiotic replicator systems may have emerged, persisted and evolved into the first living cell. We have postulated three necessary conditions for an RNA World model system to be a dynamically feasible representation of prebiotic chemical evolution: (1 it must maintain and transfer a sufficient diversity of information reliably and indefinitely, (2 it must be ecologically stable and (3 it must be evolutionarily stable. In this review, we discuss the best-known prebiotic scenarios and the corresponding models of string-replicator dynamics and assess them against these criteria. We suggest that the most popular of prebiotic replicator systems, the hypercycle, is probably the worst performer in almost all of these respects, whereas a few other model concepts (parabolic replicator, open chaotic flows, stochastic corrector, metabolically coupled replicator system are promising candidates for development into coherent models that may become experimentally accessible in the future.
Craft, Meggan E; Volz, Erik; Packer, Craig; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Territoriality in animal populations creates spatial structure that is thought to naturally buffer disease invasion. Often, however, territorial populations also include highly mobile, non-residential individuals that potentially serve as disease superspreaders. Using long-term data from the Serengeti Lion Project, we characterize the contact network structure of a territorial wildlife population and address the epidemiological impact of nomadic individuals. As expected, pride contacts are dominated by interactions with neighbouring prides and interspersed by encounters with nomads as they wander throughout the ecosystem. Yet the pride-pride network also includes occasional long-range contacts between prides, making it surprisingly small world and vulnerable to epidemics, even without nomads. While nomads increase both the local and global connectivity of the network, their epidemiological impact is marginal, particularly for diseases with short infectious periods like canine distemper virus. Thus, territoriality in Serengeti lions may be less protective and non-residents less important for disease transmission than previously considered. © 2010 The Royal Society
Claudio J. Bidau
Full Text Available Current rates of extinction exceed largely the standard background rate and all living species can be affected. Insects, the most successful group of eukaryotic organisms from their ancient origin almost 480 my ago are no exception. Despite their fundamental roles in all terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, insects are victims of the anthropogenic intereference (habitat destruction, overharvesting, pathogens, pesticides, pollution, urbanization, transport of invasive species, and greenhouse gases emissions that is causing the declination of their populations around the world. Although most insects are not charismatic as many vertebrates or plants, they deserve the same level of protection as other species with which humans are more concerned. It is a duty for all entomologists to study an implement conservation measures of insect species, and educate the general public about their inmense relevance for the Biosphere.
This paper briefly describes population and energy use trends and their consequences, particularly to the Caribbean region. Historical trends for transitional countries show a decrease in population growth rate as annual per capita commercial energy use increases. If trends continue, an increase in per capita energy will be important to stabilizing populations of transitional countries. Energy efficiency improvements, the role of fossil energy, and the use of alternative energy sources in Caribbean nations are briefly discussed. 6 refs., 3 figs.
Mirzaev, Inom; Bortz, David M
Structured population models are a class of general evolution equations which are widely used in the study of biological systems. Many theoretical methods are available for establishing existence and stability of steady states of general evolution equations. However, except for very special cases, finding an analytical form of stationary solutions for evolution equations is a challenging task. In the present paper, we develop a numerical framework for computing approximations to stationary solutions of general evolution equations, which can also be used to produce approximate existence and stability regions for steady states. In particular, we use the Trotter-Kato Theorem to approximate the infinitesimal generator of an evolution equation on a finite dimensional space, which in turn reduces the evolution equation into a system of ordinary differential equations. Consequently, we approximate and study the asymptotic behavior of stationary solutions. We illustrate the convergence of our numerical framework by applying it to a linear Sinko-Streifer structured population model for which the exact form of the steady state is known. To further illustrate the utility of our approach, we apply our framework to nonlinear population balance equation, which is an extension of well-known Smoluchowski coagulation-fragmentation model to biological populations. We also demonstrate that our numerical framework can be used to gain insight about the theoretical stability of the stationary solutions of the evolution equations. Furthermore, the open source Python program that we have developed for our numerical simulations is freely available from our GitHub repository (github.com/MathBioCU).
Full Text Available Populations often exhibit a pronounced degree of individual variability and this can be important when constructing ecological models. In this paper, we revisit the role of inter-individual variability in population persistence and stability under predation pressure. As a case study, we consider interactions between a structured population of zooplankton grazers and their predators. Unlike previous structured population models, which only consider variability of individuals according to the age or body size, we focus on physiological and behavioural structuring. We first experimentally demonstrate a high degree of variation of individual consumption rates in three dominant species of herbivorous copepods (Calanus finmarchicus, Calanus glacialis, Calanus euxinus and show that this disparity implies a pronounced variation in the consumption capacities of individuals. Then we construct a parsimonious predator-prey model which takes into account the intra-population variability of prey individuals according to behavioural traits: effectively, each organism has a 'personality' of its own. Our modelling results show that structuring of prey according to their growth rate and vulnerability to predation can dampen predator-prey cycles and enhance persistence of a species, even if the resource stock for prey is unlimited. The main mechanism of efficient top-down regulation is shown to work by letting the prey population become dominated by less vulnerable individuals when predator densities are high, while the trait distribution recovers when the predator densities are low.
Full Text Available Supragingival plaque is permanently in contact with saliva. However, the extent to which the microbiota contributes to the salivary bacterial population remains unclear. We compared the compositional shift in the salivary bacterial population with that in supragingival plaque following periodontal therapy. Samples were collected from 19 patients with periodontitis before and after periodontal therapy (mean sample collection interval, 25.8 ± 2.6 months, and their bacterial composition was investigated using barcoded pyrosequencing analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. Phylogenetic community analysis using the UniFrac distance metric revealed that the overall bacterial community composition of saliva is distinct from that of supragingival plaque, both pre- and post-therapy. Temporal variation following therapy in the salivary bacterial population was significantly smaller than in the plaque microbiota, and the post-therapy saliva sample was significantly more similar to that pre-therapy from the same individual than to those from other subjects. Following periodontal therapy, microbial richness and biodiversity were significantly decreased in the plaque microbiota, but not in the salivary bacterial population. The operational taxonomic units whose relative abundances changed significantly after therapy were not common to the two microbiotae. These results reveal the compositional stability of salivary bacterial populations against shifts in the supragingival microbiota, suggesting that the effect of the supragingival plaque microbiota on salivary bacterial population composition is limited.
Reidy, T J; Carstens, C
Clinical use of the Millon Adolescent Personality Inventory (MAPI) depends on computerized interpretation of the pattern of scale score elevations in the profile beyond certain cutoff scores rather than the elevations of single scales. There has been no reported work on the stability of the scale scores or the stability of the 2-point codes in a delinquent population. The MAPI was administered to 46 incarcerated male juvenile delinquents and was readministered after a period of 2 to 4 weeks. The test-retest correlations of the base-rate scale scores ranged from .33 to .89 with a mean of .74, which compare favorably to Millon's (1982) standardization sample. However, only 41% of the 2-point codes were judged to be congruent between administrations. The poor congruence of the 2-point codes across administrations raises doubts about interpretive statements based on these codes.
Many new safety systems are entering the market. Vision Zero is a safety strategy aiming at the elimination of fatalities and impairing injuries by the use of a holistic model for safe traffic to develop a safe system. The aim of this article is to analyze fatalities in modern cars with respect to the Vision Zero model with special respect to electronic stability control (ESC) systems and modern seat belt reminders (SBRs). The model is used to identify and understand cases where cars with ESC systems lost control and where occupants were unbelted in a seat with seat belt reminders under normal driving conditions. The model for safe traffic was used to analyze in-depth studies of fatal crashes with respect to seat belt use and loss of control. Vehicles from 2003 and later in crashes from January 2004 to mid-2010 were analyzed. The data were analyzed case by case. Cars that were equipped with ESC systems and lost control and occupants not using the seat belt in a seat with a seat belt reminder were considered as nonconformities. A total of 138 fatal crashes involving 152 fatally injured occupants were analyzed. Cars with ESC systems had fewer loss-of-control-relevant cases than cars without ESC systems. Thirteen percent of the ESC-equipped vehicles had loss-of-control-relevant crashes and 36 percent of the cars without ESC systems had loss-of-control-relevant crashes. The analysis indicates that only one car of the 9 equipped with ESC that lost control did it on a road surface with relevant friction when driving within the speed restriction of the road. In seats with seat belt reminders that are in accordance with the European New Car Assessment Programme's (Euro NCAP) protocol, 93 percent of the occupants were using a seat belt. In seats without reminders this number was 74 percent. This study shows that ESC systems result in a very significant reduction in fatal crashes, especially under normal driving conditions. Under extreme driving conditions such as speeding
Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schultz, Stewart T.
Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite–host or predator–prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii) – senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre–adult survival of the pollinating seed–consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.
A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.
Davlin, Stacy L; Vonville, Helena M
Human rabies remains a significant problem in many developing countries, where canine rabies is the most common means of transmission. Although vaccination of dogs has been shown to be the most effective method of prevention in humans, dog vaccination is often lacking. This systematic review examined dog rabies vaccination coverage achieved following mass vaccination campaigns and dog ecology/management factors relevant to rabies control in the developing world. We searched a variety of electronic databases for published articles pertaining to dog rabies vaccination or dog ecology where data were collected utilizing a household cluster survey. We reviewed studies published between January 1, 1980 and present and identified 29 articles for inclusion. We found the majority of vaccination campaigns were able to achieve the WHO recommended vaccination coverage of ≥ 70% and calculated weighted mean post-campaign vaccination coverage of 76.5% in urban areas and 73.7% in rural areas. However, we found an absence of studies related to dog vaccination/dog ecology from countries with the greatest burden of rabies such as India, China, and Pakistan. In addition, the majority of dogs in the developing world are very young and short-lived, reducing the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. Future studies on canine ecology should be undertaken in countries with high endemic canine rabies. New methods for improving the longevity of dogs and reducing high dog population turnover need to be investigated. Programs which encourage good dog management and promote responsible pet ownership are essential to eliminating canine and human rabies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Eyre, L. A.
Monitoring of the urbanization process in the less developed countries of the world is limited by the inadequacy of ground data such as censuses and by their explosive rates of population growth and spatial expansion. By integrating Landsat satellite imagery and available population data, more accurate analyses are possible than by using either medium alone. Using this technique, built-up area, population and patterns of population density for the year 1978 are quantified for six Third World supercities with population in excess of six million: Calcutta, Shanghai, Cairo, Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Significant differences in density patterns between these cities appear to be related to economic level and culture.
Mueller, B.; Zhang, X.; Zwiers, F. W.
Global mean temperatures are projected to increase by 3K and 4.9K above pre-industrial levels by 2100 in a moderate stabilization and a high-emission scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from CMIP5). However, warming rates are regionally different. In this presentation, we focus on the regions defined by the IPCC SREX report. We investigate the year in the future in which historically hottest summers are projected to become the norm, i.e. to occur at least every other year. Using results from a detection and attribution analysis, we provide probabilistic estimates based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations constrained by observations during 1950-2012. We also estimate the fraction of attributable risk (FAR), i.e. the probability for hot summers that is attributable to past emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. We find that the FAR is larger than 0.9 in many regions. We project that under RCP4.5, more than half of the world's population will experience the historically hottest summer of the past 63 years with a probability of 50% and 90% by 2035 and 2050, respectively. Under the higher emission scenario RCP8.5, historically hottest summers are projected to be more wide-spread. The Mediterranean region, Western and Eastern Asia, Northern Eurasia and the Sahara are among the first regions for which such hot summers might become the norm. Even under RCP4.5, more than 90% of summers are projected to be hotter than the historically hottest summers by 2025 and 2035 for Sahara and the Mediterranean regions, respectively.
Hawkins, I.; Tapia, F.
From long ago, the Maya civilizations of Mesoamerica have been keenly attuned to the cycles of nature. The Maya have always been careful observers, and more than a thousand years ago, they recorded the motion of the planets, the Sun, and the Moon, and predicted eclipses. These observations were used to create a complex calendar to organize the events of their world. The Maya built great cities containing buildings aligned with the Sun, Moon, and the stars to mark important times of the year. Many astronomical traditions are still practiced today by the Maya of the Yucatán peninsula, Southern states in México, and other areas in Mesoamerica. Traditional farming communities time the cultivation of corn by observing the sky. The living culture of the Mayan people in the Yucatan integrates science and astronomy with every other aspect of their culture. Yucatec Maya, the language spoken by more than 1 million people in the Yucatán today, still carries through oral histories the ancient knowledge of nature. Our hope is that you'll increase your interest and knowledge of the Mayan people and of the enduring wisdom reflected in the daily lives of Mayan families. We present the results of education and public outreach efforts that position astronomy within its cultural context as an effective means of capturing the interest and enabling authentic participation of under-represented populations in science.
Andersen, Liselotte Wesley; Lydersen, Christian; Frie, Anne Kirstine
It is crucial to examine the genetic diversity and structure of small, isolated populations, especially those at the edge of their distribution range, because they are vulnerable to stochastic processes if genetic diversity is low and isolation level high, and because such populations provide...... microsatellites and variation in the D-loop. Each of the four locations was a genetically distinct population. The Svalbard population was highly genetically distinct, had reduced genetic diversity, received limited gene flow, had a rather low effective population size and showed an indication of having...... experienced a bottleneck resulting from a recent population decline. The significant heterozygote excess observed in the Svalbard sample might be attributed to the low effective population size, which could initiate future population inbreeding effects. This phenomenon has not been reported earlier from other...
Muhammad H. Al-Malack
Full Text Available Fuel oil flyash (FFA produced in power and water desalination plants firing crude oils in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is being disposed in landfills, which increases the burden on the environment, therefore, FFA utilization must be encouraged. In the current research, the effect of adding FFA on the engineering properties of two indigenous soils, namely sand and marl, was investigated. FFA was added at concentrations of 5%, 10% and 15% to both soils with and without the addition of Portland cement. Mixtures of the stabilized soils were thoroughly evaluated using compaction, California Bearing Ratio (CBR, unconfined compressive strength (USC and durability tests. Results of these tests indicated that stabilized sand mixtures could not attain the ACI strength requirements. However, marl was found to satisfy the ACI strength requirement when only 5% of FFA was added together with 5% of cement. When the FFA was increased to 10% and 15%, the mixture’s strength was found to decrease to values below the ACI requirements. Results of the Toxicity Characteristics Leaching Procedure (TCLP, which was performed on samples that passed the ACI requirements, indicated that FFA must be cautiously used in soil stabilization.
Woźniak, Marcin; Grzybowski, Tomasz; Starzyński, Jarosław; Marciniak, Tomasz
The Polish population is reported to be very homogenous as far as Y chromosome polymorphism is concerned. One of the hypotheses that explains this phenomenon is based on the assumption that massive migrations that took place in Poland after the Second World War might have evoked such an effect. Thus, knowledge of the pre-war frequencies of Y chromosome haplotypes in different parts of the country would be a useful tool in testing such a hypothesis. We have collected 226 DNA samples, together with family history data, from males living in the rural area of Małopolska, Polish Southern border region. Based on donors' family histories we were able to reconstruct an 'ancestral' subpopulation of 108 males whose ancestors had inhabited the area before both World Wars. We have analyzed 12 Y-STR loci: DYS19, DYS385, DYS389I&II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS437, DYS438 and DYS439 in all the collected samples. Comparisons of our contemporary and 'ancestral' population samples with other Polish and Central European populations showed that the population of Southern Małopolska is very closely related to other Polish and Slavic populations. The above-mentioned observations suggest that the population of Southern Poland could have been highly homogenous even before the Second World War.
Berghoff, S M; Kronauer, D J C; Edwards, K J
barriers, which might have severe impacts on population structure and lead to population decline. Using nuclear microsatellite markers and mitochondrial sequences, we investigated genetic differentiation in a fragmented population in the Panama Canal area. While nuclear markers showed little...
Full Text Available Vocal individuality and stability has been used to conduct population surveys, monitor population dynamics, and detect dispersal patterns in avian studies. To our knowledge, it has never been used in these kinds of studies among primates. The cao vit gibbon is a critically endangered species with only one small population living in a karst forest along China-Vietnam border. Due to the difficult karst terrain, an international border, long life history, and similarity in male morphology, detailed monitoring of population dynamics and dispersal patterns are not possible using traditional observation methods. In this paper, we test individuality and stability in male songs of cao vit gibbons. We then discuss the possibility of using vocal individuality for population surveys and monitoring population dynamics and dispersal patterns. Significant individuality of vocalization was detected in all 9 males, and the correct rate of individual identification yielded by discriminant function analysis using a subset of variables was satisfactory (>90%. Vocal stability over 2-6 years was also documented in 4 males. Several characters of cao vit gibbons allowed long-term population monitoring using vocal recordings in both China and Vietnam: 1 regular loud calls, 2 strong individuality and stability in male songs, 3 stable territories, and 4 long male tenure. During the course of this research, we also observed one male replacement (confirmed by vocal analysis. This time- and labor-saving method might be the most effective way to detect dispersal patterns in this transboundary population.
Hansen, Michael Møller; Ruzzante, D.E.; Eg Nielsen, Einar
We examined the long-term temporal (1910s to 1990s) genetic variation at eight microsatellite DNA loci in brown trout (Salmo trutta L) collected from five anadromous populations in Denmark to assess the long-term stability of genetic composition and to estimate effective population sizes (N...... temporal samples from the same populations than among samples from different populations. Estimates of N-e, using a likelihood-based implementation of the temporal method, revealed N-e greater than or equal to 500 in two of three populations for which we have historical data. A third population in a small...... adaptations resulting from strong selection were expected to occur at the level of individual populations. Adaptations resulting from weak selection were more likely to occur on a regional basis, i.e. encompassing several populations. N-e appears to have declined recently in at least one of the studied...
Full Text Available The stability of the Sphagnum palustre populations on the meadows of the Kampinos National Park situated north-west of Warsaw was investigated in the period 1971-1974. Laboratory cultures were also started to establish the regenerative ability of various gametophyte parts of Sphagnum: the main stem, branches, leaves and spore germination. The green stems and apical branches of the plants showed the highest regeneration ability. Brown stems and white branches developed less intensively. Leaves showed no tendency to develop into new plants. Gametophores were found to form quicker and more effectively by way of regeneration than from spores. In natural conditions more intensive growth of branchings (new shoots from the apical and green parts of Sphagnum was also observed, whereas the brown parts did not exhibit this ability.
Full Text Available In this review article, the different conditions of the environment which could affect the well-being of the populations living on it are taken into consideration and analysed. A specific attention is paid to the phenomenon of water reduction, land degradation and consequent desertification. Such a phenomenon is particularly worrying in selected regions of the world (the Mediterranean Region and Central Asia in which a combination of several factors including climate variations, pressure of populations and increased competition for the available resources have a direct consequence on the economical, social and political conditions of the population. In addition, migrations could also take place, increasing the instability of entire regions. A proper management of water resources and the preservation of land and soil resources are essential requisites to counteract the mentioned adverse effects. Such a management is frequently a transboundary concern since it might involve different regions and countries; this is an additional reason for debating the environment degradation issues at the international level and for increasing the awareness of the civil society, the policy makers and governments.
Full Text Available Genetic improvement toward optimized and stable agronomic performance of soybean genotypes is desirable for food security. Understanding how genotypes perform in different environmental conditions helps breeders develop sustainable cultivars adapted to target regions. Complex traits of importance are known to be controlled by a large number of genomic regions with small effects whose magnitude and direction are modulated by environmental factors. Knowledge of the constraints and undesirable effects resulting from genotype by environmental interactions is a key objective in improving selection procedures in soybean breeding programs. In this study, the genetic basis of soybean grain yield responsiveness to environmental factors was examined in a large soybean nested association population. For this, a genome-wide association to performance stability estimates generated from a Finlay-Wilkinson analysis and the inclusion of the interaction between marker genotypes and environmental factors was implemented. Genomic footprints were investigated by analysis and meta-analysis using a recently published multiparent model. Results indicated that specific soybean genomic regions were associated with stability, and that multiplicative interactions were present between environments and genetic background. Seven genomic regions in six chromosomes were identified as being associated with genotype-by-environment interactions. This study provides insight into genomic assisted breeding aimed at achieving a more stable agronomic performance of soybean, and documented opportunities to exploit genomic regions that were specifically associated with interactions involving environments and subpopulations.
Poulin, Jessica; Ramamurthy, Bina; Dittmar, Katharina
Population genetics is fundamental to understanding evolutionary theory, and is taught in most introductory biology/evolution courses. Many students are unaware that understanding this topic requires pertinent knowledge
Bloom, Arthur; Constan, Phyllis
A bioethics unit aimed at taking biology out of the laboratory and classroom and into the world. An experience in which students not only begin to understand reasons for making decisions, but also understand how values change. (Author/EB)
The recent formation of the field of security demographics hasdrawn attention to the importance of population as a security issue. For example, Hudson and den Boer argue that the populations of Asia’slargest countries are a threat not because of size but because of asunusual composition – excess males. Their argument is based on theobservation that, after thirty years of population limitation policies, the Chinese population has a distinct gender bias. There are millions more males than femal...
Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali
The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world ...
Stahura, J M
"This study examines the relationship between black population concentration (% black), black population change and white population change for small American suburbs for the 1950-1980 period. Linear, tipping point (curvilinear) and interaction models of racial transition are evaluated for each decade by region (South and non-South), controlling for several other suburban characteristics (age, annexation and distance to the Central Business District) which may affect both black and white population change. The analyses show that racial transition in suburbs involves the parallel development of white and black populations with mainly weak and complex causal linkages which are sensitive to broader suburbanization patterns." excerpt
Basten, Maartje; Tiemeier, Henning; Althoff, Robert R; van de Schoot, Rens; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Hofman, Albert; Hudziak, James J; Verhulst, Frank C; van der Ende, Jan
This study examined the stability of internalizing and externalizing problems from age 1.5 to 6 years, while taking into account developmental changes in the presentation of problems. The study comprised a population-based cohort of 7,206 children (50.4 % boys). At ages 1.5, 3, and 6 years, mothers reported on problem behavior using the Child Behavior Checklist/1.5-5 (CBCL/1.5-5). At each age we performed latent profile analysis on the CBCL/1.5-5 scales. Latent transition analysis (LTA) was applied to study the stability of problem behavior. Profiles of problem behavior varied across ages. At each age, 82-87 % of the children did not have problems whereas approximately 2 % showed a profile of co-occurring internalizing and externalizing problems. This profile was more severe (with higher scores) at 6 years than at earlier ages. A predominantly internalizing profile only emerged at 6 years, while a profile with externalizing problems and emotional reactivity was present at each age. LTA showed that, based on profiles at 1.5 and 3 years, it was difficult to predict the type of profile at 6 years. Children with a profile of co-occurring internalizing and externalizing problems early in life were most likely to show problem behavior at 6 years. This study shows that the presentation of problem behavior changes across the preschool period and that heterotypic continuity of problems is very common among preschoolers. Children with co-occurring internalizing and externalizing problems were most likely to show persisting problems. The use of evidence-based treatment for these young children may prevent psychiatric problems across the life course.
Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko; Koteski, Cane; Sovreski, Zlatko
In this paper was investigated the relationship between GDP per capita growth and Log of energy production, energy consumption per capita, the log of productivity in energy sector and population. Data covered sample for 220 countries and world regions, years covered from 1980 to 2002.The results showed that if energy consumption increases by 1% GDP per capita growth will decline by 0,57%, if energy production will rise by 1% growth will rise by 1,51%, if population rise by 1% growth will decl...
de Graaf, Ron; Radovanovic, Mirjana; van Laar, Margriet; Fairman, Brian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Fayyad, John; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Huang, Yueqin; Kostychenko, Stanislav; Lépine, Jean-Pierre; Matschinger, Herbert; Mora, Maria Elena Medina; Neumark, Yehuda; Ormel, Johan; Posada-Villa, Jose; Stein, Dan J; Tachimori, Hisateru; Wells, J Elisabeth; Anthony, James C
Early-onset cannabis use is widespread in many countries and might cause later onset of depression. Sound epidemiologic data across countries are missing. The authors estimated the suspected causal association that links early-onset (age cannabis use with later-onset (age > or =17 years) risk of a depression spell, using data on 85,088 subjects from 17 countries participating in the population-based World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative (2001-2005). In all surveys, multistage household probability samples were evaluated with a fully structured diagnostic interview for assessment of psychiatric conditions. The association between early-onset cannabis use and later risk of a depression spell was studied using conditional logistic regression with local area matching of cases and controls, controlling for sex, age, tobacco use, and other mental health problems. The overall association was modest (controlled for sex and age, risk ratio = 1.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.4, 1.7), was statistically robust in 5 countries, and showed no sex difference. The association did not change appreciably with statistical adjustment for mental health problems, except for childhood conduct problems, which reduced the association to nonsignificance. This study did not allow differentiation of levels of cannabis use; this issue deserves consideration in future research.
De Blaiser, Cedric; Roosen, Philip; Willems, Tine; Danneels, Lieven; Bossche, Luc Vanden; De Ridder, Roel
To research and summarize the literature regarding the role of core stability as a risk factor in the development of lower extremity injuries in an athletic population. Pubmed, Web of Science and Embase were searched in August 2016 to systematically review studies, which related core muscle functioning and core stability to lower extremity injuries. Nine articles were included in the systematic review. Various components of core stability were found to be related to lower extremity musculoskeletal injuries in healthy athletic populations. Core strength, core proprioception and neuromuscular control of the core were found to be a risk factor in the development of lower extremity injuries. However, conflicting evidence was found for core endurance as a risk factor for lower extremity injuries. This systematic review provides preliminary evidence for the association between impaired core stability and the development of lower extremity injuries in healthy athletes. Deficits in various aspects of core stability were identified as potential risk factors for lower extremity injuries. As such, core stability needs to be considered when screening athletes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
One of the important issues in spatial ecology is how explicit considerations of space alter the prediction of population models. In this thesis we scrutinized some classical theories associated with the issue via spatial population models derived mechanistically. Incorporation of assumptions
Stanca, Michele A.
The new challenges of modern agriculture to feed the world will rely more and more on science and technological innovation, particularly that derived from 'omics' disciplines, and the speed with which these new techniques will reach the farm. [it
de Oliveira, Thais C; Rodrigues, Priscila T; Menezes, Maria José; Gonçalves-Lopes, Raquel M; Bastos, Melissa S; Lima, Nathália F; Barbosa, Susana; Gerber, Alexandra L; Loss de Morais, Guilherme; Berná, Luisa; Phelan, Jody; Robello, Carlos; de Vasconcelos, Ana Tereza R; Alves, João Marcelo P; Ferreira, Marcelo U
The Americas were the last continent colonized by humans carrying malaria parasites. Plasmodium falciparum from the New World shows very little genetic diversity and greater linkage disequilibrium, compared with its African counterparts, and is clearly subdivided into local, highly divergent populations. However, limited available data have revealed extensive genetic diversity in American populations of another major human malaria parasite, P. vivax. We used an improved sample preparation strategy and next-generation sequencing to characterize 9 high-quality P. vivax genome sequences from northwestern Brazil. These new data were compared with publicly available sequences from recently sampled clinical P. vivax isolates from Brazil (BRA, total n = 11 sequences), Peru (PER, n = 23), Colombia (COL, n = 31), and Mexico (MEX, n = 19). We found that New World populations of P. vivax are as diverse (nucleotide diversity π between 5.2 × 10-4 and 6.2 × 10-4) as P. vivax populations from Southeast Asia, where malaria transmission is substantially more intense. They display several non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions (some of them previously undescribed) in genes known or suspected to be involved in antimalarial drug resistance, such as dhfr, dhps, mdr1, mrp1, and mrp-2, but not in the chloroquine resistance transporter ortholog (crt-o) gene. Moreover, P. vivax in the Americas is much less geographically substructured than local P. falciparum populations, with relatively little between-population genome-wide differentiation (pairwise FST values ranging between 0.025 and 0.092). Finally, P. vivax populations show a rapid decline in linkage disequilibrium with increasing distance between pairs of polymorphic sites, consistent with very frequent outcrossing. We hypothesize that the high diversity of present-day P. vivax lineages in the Americas originated from successive migratory waves and subsequent admixture between parasite lineages from geographically diverse sites
Thais C de Oliveira
Full Text Available The Americas were the last continent colonized by humans carrying malaria parasites. Plasmodium falciparum from the New World shows very little genetic diversity and greater linkage disequilibrium, compared with its African counterparts, and is clearly subdivided into local, highly divergent populations. However, limited available data have revealed extensive genetic diversity in American populations of another major human malaria parasite, P. vivax.We used an improved sample preparation strategy and next-generation sequencing to characterize 9 high-quality P. vivax genome sequences from northwestern Brazil. These new data were compared with publicly available sequences from recently sampled clinical P. vivax isolates from Brazil (BRA, total n = 11 sequences, Peru (PER, n = 23, Colombia (COL, n = 31, and Mexico (MEX, n = 19.We found that New World populations of P. vivax are as diverse (nucleotide diversity π between 5.2 × 10-4 and 6.2 × 10-4 as P. vivax populations from Southeast Asia, where malaria transmission is substantially more intense. They display several non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions (some of them previously undescribed in genes known or suspected to be involved in antimalarial drug resistance, such as dhfr, dhps, mdr1, mrp1, and mrp-2, but not in the chloroquine resistance transporter ortholog (crt-o gene. Moreover, P. vivax in the Americas is much less geographically substructured than local P. falciparum populations, with relatively little between-population genome-wide differentiation (pairwise FST values ranging between 0.025 and 0.092. Finally, P. vivax populations show a rapid decline in linkage disequilibrium with increasing distance between pairs of polymorphic sites, consistent with very frequent outcrossing. We hypothesize that the high diversity of present-day P. vivax lineages in the Americas originated from successive migratory waves and subsequent admixture between parasite lineages from geographically
de Oliveira, Thais C.; Rodrigues, Priscila T.; Menezes, Maria José; Gonçalves-Lopes, Raquel M.; Bastos, Melissa S.; Lima, Nathália F.; Barbosa, Susana; Gerber, Alexandra L.; Loss de Morais, Guilherme; Berná, Luisa; Phelan, Jody; Robello, Carlos; de Vasconcelos, Ana Tereza R.
Background The Americas were the last continent colonized by humans carrying malaria parasites. Plasmodium falciparum from the New World shows very little genetic diversity and greater linkage disequilibrium, compared with its African counterparts, and is clearly subdivided into local, highly divergent populations. However, limited available data have revealed extensive genetic diversity in American populations of another major human malaria parasite, P. vivax. Methods We used an improved sample preparation strategy and next-generation sequencing to characterize 9 high-quality P. vivax genome sequences from northwestern Brazil. These new data were compared with publicly available sequences from recently sampled clinical P. vivax isolates from Brazil (BRA, total n = 11 sequences), Peru (PER, n = 23), Colombia (COL, n = 31), and Mexico (MEX, n = 19). Principal findings/Conclusions We found that New World populations of P. vivax are as diverse (nucleotide diversity π between 5.2 × 10−4 and 6.2 × 10−4) as P. vivax populations from Southeast Asia, where malaria transmission is substantially more intense. They display several non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions (some of them previously undescribed) in genes known or suspected to be involved in antimalarial drug resistance, such as dhfr, dhps, mdr1, mrp1, and mrp-2, but not in the chloroquine resistance transporter ortholog (crt-o) gene. Moreover, P. vivax in the Americas is much less geographically substructured than local P. falciparum populations, with relatively little between-population genome-wide differentiation (pairwise FST values ranging between 0.025 and 0.092). Finally, P. vivax populations show a rapid decline in linkage disequilibrium with increasing distance between pairs of polymorphic sites, consistent with very frequent outcrossing. We hypothesize that the high diversity of present-day P. vivax lineages in the Americas originated from successive migratory waves and subsequent admixture between
Poulsen, Nina Aagaard; Eg Nielsen, Einar; Schierup, M.H.
for the Moray Firth population, while subtle but significant genetic changes over time were detected for the Bornholm Basin population. Estimates of the effective population size (N-e) generally exceeded 500 for both populations when employing a number of varieties of the temporal genetic method. However......DNA from archived otoliths was used to explore the temporal stability of the genetic composition of two cod populations, the Moray Firth (North Sea) sampled in 1965 and 2002, and the Bornholm Basin (Baltic Sea) sampled in 1928 and 1997. We found no significant changes in the allele frequencies......, confidence intervals were very wide and N-e's most likely range in the thousands. There was no apparent loss of genetic variability and no evidence of a genetic bottleneck for either of the populations. Calculations of the expected levels of genetic variability under different scenarios of N-e showed...
Mellin, Camille; Huchery, Cindy; Caley, M Julian; Meekan, Mark G; Bradshaw, Corey J A
Temporal variance in species abundance, a potential driver of extinction, is linked to mean abundance through Taylor's power law, the empirical observation of a linear log-log relationship with a slope between 1 and 2 for most species. Here we test the idea that the slope of Taylor's power law can vary both among species and spatially as a function of habitat area and isolation. We used the world's most extensive database of coral reef fish communities comprising a 15-year series of fish abundances on 43 reefs of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Greater temporal variances were observed at small and isolated reefs, and lower variances at large and connected ones. The combination of reef area and isolation was associated with an even greater effect on temporal variances, indicating strong empirical support for the idea that populations on small and isolated reefs will succumb more frequently to local extinction via higher temporal variability, resulting in lower resilience at the community level. Based on these relationships, we constructed a regional predictive map of the dynamic fragility of coral reef fish assemblages on the Great Barrier Reef.
Juliann E Aukema
Full Text Available Humans and the ecosystem services they depend on are threatened by climate change. Places with high or growing human population as well as increasing climate variability, have a reduced ability to provide ecosystem services just as the need for these services is most critical. A spiral of vulnerability and ecosystem degradation often ensues in such places. We apply different global conservation schemes as proxies to examine the spatial relation between wet season precipitation, population change over three decades, and natural resource conservation. We pose two research questions: 1 Where are biodiversity and ecosystem services vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and population growth? 2 Where are human populations vulnerable to degraded ecosystem services? Results suggest that globally only about 20% of the area between 50 degrees latitude North and South has experienced significant change-largely wetting-in wet season precipitation. Approximately 40% of rangelands and 30% of rainfed agriculture lands have experienced significant precipitation changes, with important implications for food security. Over recent decades a number of critical conservation areas experienced high population growth concurrent with significant wetting or drying (e.g. the Horn of Africa, Himalaya, Western Ghats, and Sri Lanka, posing challenges not only for human adaptation but also to the protection and sustenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying areas of climate and population risk and their overlap with conservation priorities can help to target activities and resources that promote biodiversity and ecosystem services while improving human well-being.
Emerick, Brooks; Singh, Abhyudai
Discrete-time models are the traditional approach for capturing population dynamics of a host-parasitoid system. Recent work has introduced a semi-discrete framework for obtaining model update functions that connect host-parasitoid population levels from year-to-year. In particular, this framework uses differential equations to describe the host-parasitoid interaction during the time of year when they come in contact, allowing specific behaviors to be mechanistically incorporated. We use the semi-discrete approach to study the effects of host-feeding, which occurs when a parasitoid consumes a potential host larva without ovipositing. We find that host-feeding by itself cannot stabilize the system, and both populations exhibit behavior similar to the Nicholson-Bailey model. However, when combined with stabilizing mechanisms such as density-dependent host mortality, host-feeding contracts the region of parameter space that allows for a stable host-parasitoid equilibrium. In contrast, when combined with a density-dependent parasitoid attack rate, host-feeding expands the non-zero equilibrium stability region. Our results show that host-feeding causes inefficiency in the parasitoid population, which yields a higher population of hosts per generation. This suggests that host-feeding may have limited long-term impact in terms of suppressing host levels for biological control applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Ćwirlej-Sozańska, Agnieszka; Wilmowska-Pietruszyńska, Anna; Sozański, Bernard
To assess the reliability and validity of the Polish version of the 36-point World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population. One thousand randomly selected individuals, aged 60-70 years, living in south-eastern Poland were assessed using the Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0. The analysis confirmed the high reliability and validity of the tool. Cronbach's α index was 0.89. The tool had high stability, and the correlation between test and retest results was high. The relevance of the domain selection was high or very high. A factor analysis confirmed the relevance of assigning questions to domains. High theoretical relevance was also demonstrated. Statistically significant differences between those who were and were not suffering from health problems were observed. An analysis of the internal structure of the WHODAS 2.0 revealed strong correlations between the components of each domain and the final result. The Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0 showed high reliability and validity; thus, it can be used to assess health, functioning and disability in the elderly population of Poland.
Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing
The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.
Vestbo, J.; Vogelmeier, C.; Small, M.
Study objectives: The aim of this analysis was to understand the implications of the GOLD 2011 multidimensional system for the assessment and management of COPD, using data from a real-world observational study. Methods: Data were drawn from the Adelphi Respiratory Disease Specific Programme...... burden, increased airflow limitation and exacerbation, and further illustrated the importance of including exacerbation history in the assessment of COPD to identify patients at high risk. As based on data from current clinical practice, this study also highlighted the frequent and potentially...
Ullah, K.; Khan, N.U.; Gul, S.; Khan, S.J.
Using joint segregation analysis (JSA) technique as statistical approach, mixed inheritance analysis for cell plasma membrane as membrane thermal stability (MTS) was assayed in two parental lines (P1, P2) and their four populations (F1, BC1, BC2, F2) of four wheat crosses, viz., Hashim-08 * LU-26, Farid-06 * Shafaq, Parula * Blue Silver and TD-1 * D-97603 at Faculty of Agriculture, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan during crop season 2011-12. Results revealed that MTS was under control of two mixed groups of genes i.e., additive-dominant-epistatic major genes plus additive-dominant-epistasis of polygenes (model E) in Hashim-08 * LU-26 and Farid-06 * Shafaq crosses, respectively. In cross Parula * Blue Silver, it was governed by mixed genes i.e. one major-gene and additive-dominance-epistatic polygenes (model D). However, in cross TD-1 * D-97603, the MTS was under the influence of mixed epistasis of two major genes plus polygenes (model E-1). Polygene variation and polygene heritability were higher than major gene variation and heritability in crosses Hashim-08 * LU-26 and Farid-06 * Shafaq. In crosses Parula * Blue Silver and TD-1 * D-97603, the major gene variation and heritability were higher than polygene variation and heritability, indicating maximum contribution of the major genes. While in cross TD-1 * D-97603, epistatic components were also positive and due to which the polygene heritability was almost zero. Moderate to high environmental variation in the MTS for segregating generations revealed that the said trait was highly persuaded by the environment. However, the genetic behavior of the MTS suggested that early selection for MTS in the crosses Hashim-08 * LU-26 and Farid-06 * Shafaq would be efficient. Whereas, the delayed selection in crosses Parula * Blue Silver and TD-1 * D-97603 until the accumulation of maximum favorable genes will be effective. (author)
Scott, K.M.; Bruffaerts, R.; Simon, G.E.; Alonso, J.; Angermeyer, M.; de Girolamo, G.; Demyttenaere, K.; Gasquet, I.; Haro, J.M.; Karam, E.; Kessler, R.C.; Levinson, D.; Mora, M.E.M.; Browne, M.A.O.; Ormel, J.; Villa, J.P.; Uda, H.; Von Korff, M.
Objectives: (1) To investigate whether there is an association between obesity and mental disorders in the general populations of diverse countries, and (2) to establish whether demographic variables (sex, age, education) moderate any associations observed. Design: Thirteen cross-sectional, general
Brown, Lester R.
The interrelationship of population growth, food production, and death rates is explored. Birth rates in China, Western Europe, and North America have significantly decreased in the five-year period from 1970-75. This is largely due to widening availability of family planning services and the growing desire to use them. Four European countries…
Lima, Ernesto A B F; Ferreira, Claudia P; Godoy, Wesley A C
Ecological modeling is an important tool for investigating dynamic behavior patterns in populations, trophic interactions, and behavioral ecology. However, the ecological patterns that reflect population oscillation trends are often not clearly visible without analytical instruments such as ecological models. Thus, ecological modeling plays a fundamental role in describing demographic processes that are important for population dynamics. Ecological models, besides making possible the visualization of ecological patterns, may also reveal patterns of population persistence in many trophic systems, including prey-predator or host-parasitoid relationships, interactions that are commonly present in integrated pest management programs. In this forum, we present the main ecological aspects important for model building and implementation of integrated pest management programs for insects. Particularly, in this study, we analyze the combination between host-parasitoid models and the concept of economic threshold level on a spatio-temporal scale. As a conclusion about the model combination, spatial structure is essential for models of this nature, since its introduction into the system significantly alters the economic threshold-level values.
Ness, G D
A comparison of population growth was made for the Philippines and Thailand. Although both countries had 20 million population in 1950 and developed family planning (FP) in similar stages, Thailand had a contraceptive use rate of about 65% and total fertility of 2.1 and a population of 57 million, while the Philippines had 7.4 million more people and slower economic development. Environmental effects of this situation in the Philippines included the movement of people to marginal mountainous land and soil erosion and degradation. A major medical problem has been complications from illegal abortion. While Thailand is expected to reach replacement level by 1995, the Philippines will not reach replacement level until at least 2015, by which time the population will be 20 million more than in Thailand. Thailand is experiencing declines in school age population, and the Philippines is experiencing growth in its school enrollment and labor force. Although the Philippines has received more foreign FP assistance than Thailand, the demographic impact has been greater in Thailand. The Philippines made mistakes in centralizing its FP efforts in Manila and spending too much on communication programs and less on service delivery in rural areas. After 1978, the emphasis shifted and funds were diminished for all social services by the Marcos regime. Mrs. Aguino could not right the wrongs of the previous administration because of her strong commitment to Roman Catholicism. The new Fidel Ramos administration and Health Secretary Flavier are now dedicated to promotion of primary health care and FP. Unfortunately, past political and religious leaders abnegated their responsibility in promoting responsible parenthood and providing appropriate social services. Instead these parties achieved personal wealth at the expense of the masses and protected a "dubious morality."
Xu, Xinrong; Song, Jinyuan; Zhang, Zhenhua; Li, Peng; Yang, Guang; Zhou, Kaiya
Chinese white dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting shallow coastal waters are vulnerable to impacts from human activities in the near shore waters. This study examined the population of Chinese white dolphins occurring off the coast of Zhanjiang in the northern South China Sea. A total of 492 Chinese white dolphins were identified, 176 of which were photographed on more than one occasion. The Zhanjiang Chinese white dolphin population is isolated from populations of conspecifics along the Guangdong coast. It is composed of approximately 1485 individuals (95% CI = 1371-1629; SE = 63.8), with estimates of mean representative range and core area of 168.51 and 44.26 km(2), respectively. The high site fidelity and long-term residence of Chinese white dolphins in the study area are well established. A review of all available data indicates that based on what is currently known, the Zhanjiang Chinese white dolphin population is the second largest of the species and genus in the world. However, the recent industrial boom along the Zhanjiang coast has increased concerns regarding the conservation of the Zhanjiang Chinese white dolphin population. We recommend the designation of a national nature reserve as a most urgent measure for protecting Chinese white dolphins in Zhanjiang waters.
Orsini, Luisa; Marshall, Hollie; Cuenca Cambronero, Maria; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Thomas, Kelley W; Pfrender, Michael E; Spanier, Katina I; De Meester, Luc
Studies monitoring changes in genetic diversity and composition through time allow a unique understanding of evolutionary dynamics and persistence of natural populations. However, such studies are often limited to species with short generation times that can be propagated in the laboratory or few exceptional cases in the wild. Species that produce dormant stages provide powerful models for the reconstruction of evolutionary dynamics in the natural environment. A remaining open question is to what extent dormant egg banks are an unbiased representation of populations and hence of the species' evolutionary potential, especially in the presence of strong environmental selection. We address this key question using the water flea Daphnia magna, which produces dormant stages that accumulate in biological archives over time. We assess temporal genetic stability in three biological archives, previously used in resurrection ecology studies showing adaptive evolutionary responses to rapid environmental change. We show that neutral genetic diversity does not decline with the age of the population and it is maintained in the presence of strong selection. In addition, by comparing temporal genetic stability in hatched and unhatched populations from the same biological archive, we show that dormant egg banks can be consulted to obtain a reliable measure of genetic diversity over time, at least in the multidecadal time frame studied here. The stability of neutral genetic diversity through time is likely mediated by the buffering effect of the resting egg bank. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R
Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty.
This article reports on the production of 52 video programs addressing reproductive and sexual health and reproductive rights issues by the Colombo-based Worldview International Foundation. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and relevant NGOs and institutions chose the themes. Following the production, the video programs will be broadcast through Young Asia Television, which covers 18 countries in Asia and reaches over 385 million viewers, and other channels. This advocacy program is under the Television Advocacy Program for Adolescent Reproductive Health and Population Issues project, which complements special strategies under the European Commission/UNFPA Initiative for Reproductive Health in Asia. By promoting the global dissemination of information and education, the Worldview project aims to 1) strengthen young people's participation; 2) advance TV media advocacy; 3) advocate the inclusion of population, gender, sexual and reproductive health issues; 4) provide extended knowledge of adolescent reproductive health to all concerned groups; 5) encourage positive attitudes towards preventive methods among the target groups; 6) promote the importance of incorporating gender perspectives and child abuse issues; and 7) establish close cooperation among organizations at the national, regional and international levels.
Gladyshev, G P
The creation of structural hierarchies in open natural biosystems within the framework of quasi-closed systems is investigated by the methods of hierarchic thermodynamics (thermostatics). During the evolution of natural open systems, every higher hierarchic level j appears as a consequence of thermodynamic self-organization (self-assembly) of the structures of the lower (j-1)-th level. Such a self-assembly proceeds as a result of stabilization of the j-th level. This is related to the Gibbs' (Helmholtz') specific function of formation of the structure of the j-th level tending to a minimum. As a result of action of the principle of substance (matter) stability, the structures of the j-th level are enriched with less stable structures of the (j-1)-th level in the course of evolution. This provides a thermodynamic feedback between the structures of the higher j-th level and lower (j-1)-th level, thus preventing full structural stabilization of the j-th level and causing "thermodynamic rejuvenation" of biosystems. The latter enhances "thermodynamic" deceleration of evolution and practically unlimited maintenance of life. Examples of quantitative correlations are provided that call for further application of the substance stability principle to living and nonliving hierarchic structures.
Schwartz-Marín, Ernesto; Wade, Peter; Cruz-Santiago, Arely; Cárdenas, Roosbelinda
Abstract This article examines the role that vernacular notions of racialized-regional difference play in the constitution and stabilization of DNA populations in Colombian forensic science, in what we frame as a process of public science. In public science, the imaginations of the scientific world and common-sense public knowledge are integral to the production and circulation of science itself. We explore the origins and circulation of a scientific object--'La Tabla', published in Paredes et al. and used in genetic forensic identification procedures--among genetic research institutes, forensic genetics laboratories and courtrooms in Bogotá. We unveil the double life of this central object of forensic genetics. On the one hand, La Tabla enjoys an indisputable public place in the processing of forensic genetic evidence in Colombia (paternity cases, identification of bodies, etc.). On the other hand, the relations it establishes between 'race', geography and genetics are questioned among population geneticists in Colombia. Although forensic technicians are aware of the disputes among population geneticists, they use and endorse the relations established between genetics, 'race' and geography because these fit with common-sense notions of visible bodily difference and the regionalization of race in the Colombian nation.
Schwartz-Marín, Ernesto; Wade, Peter; Cruz-Santiago, Arely; Cárdenas, Roosbelinda
This article examines the role that vernacular notions of racialized-regional difference play in the constitution and stabilization of DNA populations in Colombian forensic science, in what we frame as a process of public science. In public science, the imaginations of the scientific world and common-sense public knowledge are integral to the production and circulation of science itself. We explore the origins and circulation of a scientific object – ‘La Tabla’, published in Paredes et al. and used in genetic forensic identification procedures – among genetic research institutes, forensic genetics laboratories and courtrooms in Bogotá. We unveil the double life of this central object of forensic genetics. On the one hand, La Tabla enjoys an indisputable public place in the processing of forensic genetic evidence in Colombia (paternity cases, identification of bodies, etc.). On the other hand, the relations it establishes between ‘race’, geography and genetics are questioned among population geneticists in Colombia. Although forensic technicians are aware of the disputes among population geneticists, they use and endorse the relations established between genetics, ‘race’ and geography because these fit with common-sense notions of visible bodily difference and the regionalization of race in the Colombian nation. PMID:27480000
Introduction and objectives. Population-based research on mental disorders needs to keep pace with trends in general epidemiology. At present, this requirement is complicated by uncertainty within the parent discipline about its future development. The present study examines proposals for new directions in strategy and methods and considers their significance for psychiatric epidemiology. Method. Narrative review, cross-checked by search of English-language journals of epidemiology for new trends and developments reported in the years from 2000 onwards. Results. The proposals reviewed here are divided into three groups: 1. A new research paradigm of 'eco-epidemiology', which includes both individual risk factors and macro-environmental systems that mediate population levels of health and sickness. 2. Improved 'translation' of research findings - i.e. more rapid and effective implementation of epidemiological evidence into health policy and practice. 3. Adaptation of epidemiology to a globalised economy, with firmer regulation of funding and resources. Conclusions. Each of these proposals has implications for psychiatric epidemiology. Workers in this field, however, are still preoccupied by relatively specific problems of definition, measurement and classification, and so far the current debates in general epidemiology are scarcely reflected. The proposals outlined above call for: • a working model of eco-epidemiology as it relates to psychiatric disorders; • implementation strategies to encourage more active participation in epidemiological research by community health services and caregiver organisations; • international collaborative projects that offer practical benefits in training and service facilities for the countries taking part.
Jurado, Dolores; Alarcón, Renato D; Martínez-Ortega, José M; Mendieta-Marichal, Yaiza; Gutiérrez-Rojas, Luis; Gurpegui, Manuel
We systematically review factors associated with the presence of psychological distress or common mental disorders in migrant populations. Articles published between January 2000 and December 2014 were reviewed and 85 applying multivariate statistical analysis were selected. Common mental disorders were significantly associated with socio-demographic and psychological characteristics, as observed in large epidemiological studies on general populations. The probability of common mental disorders occurrence differs significantly among migrant groups according to their region of origin. Moreover, traumatic events prior to migration, forced, unplanned, poorly planned or illegal migration, low level of acculturation, living alone or separated from family in the host country, lack of social support, perceived discrimination, and the length of migrants' residence in the host country all increase the likelihood of CMD. In contrast, language proficiency, family reunification, and perceived social support reduce such probability. Factors related with the risk of psychiatric morbidity among migrants should be taken into account to design preventive strategies. Copyright © 2016 SEP y SEPB. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Rider, J.L.; Beal, S.K.
The equations developed for use in the LWBR environmental statement to estimate the dose commitment over a given time interval to a given organ of the population in the entire region affected by the atmospheric releases of a radionuclide are presented and may be used for any assessment of dose commitments in these regions. These equations define the dose commitments to the world resulting from a released radionuclide and each of its daughters and the sum of these dose commitments provides the total dose commitment accrued from the release of a given radionuclide. If more than one radionuclide is released from a facility, then the sum of the dose commitments from each released nuclide and from each daughter of each released nuclide is the total dose commitment to the world from that facility. Furthermore, if more than one facility is considered as part of an industry, then the sum of the dose commitments from the individual facilities represents the total world dose commitment associated with that industry. The actual solutions to these equations are carried out by the AIRWAY computer program. The writing of this computer program entailed defining in detail the specific representations of the various parameters such as scavenging coefficients, resuspension factors, deposition velocities, dose commitment conversion factors, and food uptake factors, in addition to providing specific numerical values for these types of parameters. The program permits the examination of more than one released nuclide at a time and performs the necessary summing to obtain the total dose commitment to the world accrued from the specified releases
Mankind is passing through an exceptional phase of accelerated population growth that generates anxiety about the future. How many billion people will share the limited resources of our globe a century from now? What will be the consequences of globalization for human behaviour? How will individuals react to emerging new constraints? What will be the consequences of climate change for human society? Obviously enough, history cannot offer operational answers to these crucial questions. Nevertheless, history offers some interesting insights into demographic behaviour experienced in the past that could be replicated in the future, with the variations and adaptations dictated by the changing contexts. In other words, there are constants and structures in human behaviour, and there are robust mechanisms in the functioning of demographic systems that are of some help in preparing us to deal with the future.
Bennett, Elizabeth L
Illegal hunting of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) for ivory is causing rapid declines in their populations. Since 2007, illegal ivory trade has more than doubled. African elephants are facing the most serious conservation crisis since 1989, when international trade was banned. One solution proposed is establishment of a controlled legal trade in ivory. High prices for ivory mean that the incentives to obtain large quantities are high, but the quantity of tusks available for trade are biologically constrained. Within that context, effective management of a legal ivory trade would require robust systems to be in place to ensure that ivory from illegally killed elephants cannot be laundered into a legal market. At present, that is not feasible due to corruption among government officials charged with implementing wildlife-related legislation. With organized criminal enterprises involved along the whole commodity chain, corruption enables the laundering of illegal ivory into legal or potentially legal markets. Poachers and traffickers can rapidly pay their way out of trouble, so the financial incentives to break the law heavily outweigh those of abiding by it. Maintaining reliable permitting systems and leak-proof chains of custody in this context is challenging, and effective management breaks down. Once illegal ivory has entered the legal trade, it is difficult or impossible for enforcement officers to know what is legal and illegal. Addressing corruption throughout a trade network that permeates countries across the globe will take decades, if it can ever be achieved. That will be too late for wild African elephants at current rates of loss. If we are to conserve remaining wild populations, we must close all markets because, under current levels of corruption, they cannot be controlled in a way that does not provide opportunities for illegal ivory being laundered into legal markets. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.
Jensen, Michael P; Allen, Camryn D; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Bell, Ian P; LaCasella, Erin L; Hilton, William A; Hof, Christine A M; Dutton, Peter H
Climate change affects species and ecosystems around the globe . The impacts of rising temperature are particularly pertinent in species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), where the sex of an individual is determined by incubation temperature during embryonic development . In sea turtles, the proportion of female hatchlings increases with the incubation temperature. With average global temperature predicted to increase 2.6°C by 2100 , many sea turtle populations are in danger of high egg mortality and female-only offspring production. Unfortunately, determining the sex ratios of hatchlings at nesting beaches carries both logistical and ethical complications. However, sex ratio data obtained at foraging grounds provides information on the amalgamation of immature and adult turtles hatched from different nesting beaches over many years. Here, for the first time, we use genetic markers and a mixed-stock analysis (MSA), combined with sex determination through laparoscopy and endocrinology, to link male and female green turtles foraging in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to the nesting beach from which they hatched. Our results show a moderate female sex bias (65%-69% female) in turtles originating from the cooler southern GBR nesting beaches, while turtles originating from warmer northern GBR nesting beaches were extremely female-biased (99.1% of juvenile, 99.8% of subadult, and 86.8% of adult-sized turtles). Combining our results with temperature data show that the northern GBR green turtle rookeries have been producing primarily females for more than two decades and that the complete feminization of this population is possible in the near future. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available For a long time, anthropological and genetic research on the Neolithic revolution in Europe was mainly concentrated on the mechanism of agricultural dispersal over different parts of the continent. Recently, attention has shifted towards population processes that occurred after the arrival of the first farmers, transforming the genetically very distinctive early Neolithic Linear Pottery Culture (LBK and Mesolithic forager populations into present-day Central Europeans. The latest studies indicate that significant changes in this respect took place within the post-Linear Pottery cultures of the Early and Middle Neolithic which were a bridge between the allochthonous LBK and the first indigenous Neolithic culture of north-central Europe--the Funnel Beaker culture (TRB. The paper presents data on mtDNA haplotypes of a Middle Neolithic population dated to 4700/4600-4100/4000 BC belonging to the Brześć Kujawski Group of the Lengyel culture (BKG from the Kuyavia region in north-central Poland. BKG communities constituted the border of the "Danubian World" in this part of Europe for approx. seven centuries, neighboring foragers of the North European Plain and the southern Baltic basin. MtDNA haplogroups were determined in 11 individuals, and four mtDNA macrohaplogroups were found (H, U5, T, and HV0. The overall haplogroup pattern did not deviate from other post-Linear Pottery populations from central Europe, although a complete lack of N1a and the presence of U5a are noteworthy. Of greatest importance is the observed link between the BKG and the TRB horizon, confirmed by an independent analysis of the craniometric variation of Mesolithic and Neolithic populations inhabiting central Europe. Estimated phylogenetic pattern suggests significant contribution of the post-Linear BKG communities to the origin of the subsequent Middle Neolithic cultures, such as the TRB.
M. M. Kvalevåg
Full Text Available Human activity influences a wide range of components that affect the surface UV radiation levels, among them ozone at high latitudes. We calculate the effect of human-induced changes in the surface erythemally weighted ultra-violet radiation (UV-E since 1750. We compare results from a radiative transfer model to surface UV-E radiation for year 2000 derived by satellite observations (from Total Ozone Mapping Spectroradiometer and to ground based measurements at 14 sites. The model correlates well with the observations; the correlation coefficients are 0.97 and 0.98 for satellite and ground based measurements, respectively. In addition to the effect of changes in ozone, we also investigate the effect of changes in SO2, NO2, the direct and indirect effects of aerosols, albedo changes and aviation-induced contrails and cirrus. The results show an increase of surface UV-E in polar regions, most strongly in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, our study also shows an extensive surface UV-E reduction over most land areas; a reduction up to 20% since 1750 is found in some industrialized regions. This reduction in UV-E over the industrial period is particularly large in highly populated regions.
Bonney, Andrew; Phillipson, Lyn; Jones, Sandra C; Hall, Julie; Sharma, Rashmi
Develop and pilot test evidence-based resources for general practice training practices to enhance older patients' (65+ years) interactions with General Practice Registrars (GPRs). In Australia, general practice trainees, referred to as GPRs, see fewer older patients and patients with chronic conditions than doctors who have completed their specialist GP training. This reduces learning opportunities for GPRs in the management of these important patient groups. Therefore, developing effective strategies to improve GPR-older patient interaction is critical to primary care training, to meet the current and future needs of an ageing population. Adopting a social marketing approach, GPR practice resources were developed to address knowledge and attitudinal barriers at the practice and patient level to improve older patient comfort, and willingness to engage, with GPR care. Two focus groups with older patients (n=18) and interviews with staff of training practices (n=12) were utilised to pre-test resources. Amended resources were pilot tested and evaluated in a naturalistic GPR training practice setting using a structured patient questionnaire (n=44). Pilot evaluation suggests improved comfort and willingness of older patients to interact with GPRs. In all, 54% of survey participants indicated they would be more likely to make an appointment with a Registrar in the future as a result of exposure to the resources. In all, 40% of patients would feel comfortable having a GPR manage a complex or chronic condition, which compares favourably with 28% of similarly aged patients in previous research. The use of tailored, engaging and informative GPR resources for older patients and practice staff may be an important contributor to addressing the growing problem of ensuring GPRs are adequately engaged in treating older patients. The adoption of a social marketing framework was instrumental in enhancing the acceptance and effectiveness of this intervention.
Population trends in the Tirol, in western Austria, since World War II are analyzed. Consideration is given to the effect of altitude on the demographic development of communities and to the importance of tourism for population stability.
Gabrys, Jan Bernard
This paper reports a test-retest study of the Junior Eysenck Personality Inventory for 257 children, ages 7-16, receiving psychological services in a British Columbia public health facility. Findings support the test author's claims over a 30-day period of relative score stability on extraversion and neuroticism. (Author/SJL)
Heather L. Major
Full Text Available We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.
Garfield, Richard M; Polonsky, Jonathan; Burkle, Frederick M
Armed conflicts include declared cross-border and internal wars and political, ethnic, and religious hostilities. The number of conflicts worldwide and their level of intensity have varied widely during the last 5 decades. Tracking conflicts throughout this period has focused predominantly on the number of individuals killed or displaced from these hostilities through count-based estimation systems, or establishing rates of excess mortality from demographic surveys. This report focuses on people living in areas with conflict by applying an estimated level of conflict intensity to data on the population of each territory with hostilities during 1946 to 2007. Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program/Peace Research Institute Oslo (UCDP/PRIO) Armed Conflict project database on 324 conflicts of any type in countries with populations greater than 500 000 were combined with conflict-intensity estimates from the Center for Systemic Peace and population data from the US Census Bureau International Data Base. More than half a billion people lived in conflict-affected areas in 2007. An increasing proportion of those affected by conflict lived in early postconflict areas, where hostilities were judged or declared during the last 5 years. In the past 2 decades, the average intensity of conflict among those living in areas with a current conflict has gradually declined. A burgeoning population lives in areas where conflict has recently ended, yet most of the world's large-scale medical responses to emergencies focus on high-intensity conflicts. Effective emergency and reconstruction activities in the health sector will depend on reorganizing services to increasingly focus on and transition to low-level and postconflict environments.
v.d. Stap, I.; Vos, M.; Kooi, B.W.; Mulling, B.T.; van Donk, E..; Mooij, W.M.
The effects of inducible defenses and constitutive defenses on population dynamics were investigated in a freshwater plankton system with rotifers as predators and different algal strains as prey. We made predictions for these systems using a chemostat predator-prey model and focused on population
Franco, Daniel; Guiver, Chris; Logemann, Hartmut; Perán, Juan
We consider persistence and stability properties for a class of forced discrete-time difference equations with three defining properties: the solution is constrained to evolve in the non-negative orthant, the forcing acts multiplicatively, and the dynamics are described by so-called Lur'e systems, containing both linear and non-linear terms. Many discrete-time biological models encountered in the literature may be expressed in the form of a Lur'e system and, in this context, the multiplicative forcing may correspond to harvesting, culling or time-varying (such as seasonal) vital rates or environmental conditions. Drawing upon techniques from systems and control theory, and assuming that the forcing is bounded, we provide conditions under which persistence occurs and, further, that a unique non-zero equilibrium is stable with respect to the forcing in a sense which is reminiscent of input-to-state stability, a concept well-known in nonlinear control theory. The theoretical results are illustrated with several examples. In particular, we discuss how our results relate to previous literature on stabilization of chaotic systems by so-called proportional feedback control.
Li, Liming; Wang, Yi; Yang, Shuping; Xia, Mingying; Yang, Yajun; Wang, Jiucun; Lu, Daru; Pan, Xingwei; Ma, Teng; Jiang, Pei; Yu, Ge; Zhao, Ziqin; Ping, Yuan; Zhou, Huaigu; Zhao, Xueying; Sun, Hui; Liu, Bing; Jia, Dongtao; Li, Chengtao; Hu, Rile; Lu, Hongzhou; Liu, Xiaoyang; Chen, Wenqing; Mi, Qin; Xue, Fuzhong; Su, Yongdong; Jin, Li; Li, Shilin
The applications of DNA profiling aim to identify perpetrators, missing family members and disaster victims in forensic investigations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based forensic applications are emerging rapidly with a potential to replace short tandem repeats (STRs) based panels which are now being used widely, and there is a need for a well-designed SNP panel to meet such challenge for this transition. Here we present a panel of 175 SNP markers (referred to as Fudan ID Panel or FID), selected from ∼3.6 million SNPs, for the application of personal identification. We optimized and validated FID panel using 729 Chinese individuals using a next generation sequencing (NGS) technology. We showed that the SNPs in the panel possess very high heterozygosity as well as low within- and among-continent differentiations, enabling FID panel exhibit discrimination power in both regional and worldwide populations, with the average match probabilities ranging from 4.77×10 -71 to 1.06×10 -64 across 54 world populations. With the advent of biomedical research, the SNPs connecting physical anthropological, physiological, behavioral and phenotypic traits will be eventually added to the forensic panels that will revolutionize criminal investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Powell, Eric N; Klinck, John M; Hofmann, Eileen E
Crassostrea oysters are protandrous hermaphrodites. Sex is thought to be determined by a single gene with a dominant male allele M and a recessive protandrous allele F, such that FF animals are protandrous and MF animals are permanent males. We investigate the possibility that a reduction in generation time, brought about for example by disease, might jeopardize retention of the M allele. Simulations show that MF males have a significantly lessened lifetime fecundity when generation time declines. The allele frequency of the M allele declines and eventually the M allele is lost. The probability of loss is modulated by population abundance. As abundance increases, the probability of M allele loss declines. Simulations suggest that stabilization of the female-to-male ratio when generation time is long is the dominant function of the M allele. As generation time shortens, the raison d'être for the M allele also fades as mortality usurps the stabilizing role. Disease and exploitation have shortened oyster generation time: one consequence may be to jeopardize retention of the M allele. Two alternative genetic bases for protandry also provide stable sex ratios when generation time is long; an F-dominant protandric allele and protandry restricted to the MF heterozygote. In both cases, simulations show that FF individuals become rare in the population at high abundance and/or long generation time. Protandry restricted to the MF heterozygote maintains sex ratio stability over a wider range of generation times and abundances than the alternatives, suggesting that sex determination based on a male-dominant allele (MM/MF) may not be the optimal solution to the genetic basis for protandry in Crassostrea. Copyright Â© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bishwajit, Ghose; O'Leary, Daniel Peter; Ghosh, Sharmistha; Yaya, Sanni; Shangfeng, Tang; Feng, Zhanchun
With the increase in the understanding of the influence of various lifestyle factors such as sedentary behaviour and level of physical activity (PA) on physical and mental health, there has been a growing research interest on how physical inactivity correlates with depressive outcomes across countries. The present study aimed to examine 1) the pattern of engaging in PA among middle- and older-aged population in four South Asian countries, and 2) whether PA is associated with higher prevalence of depression. This cross-sectional study is based on country-representative data obtained from WHO's World Health Survey (WHS). Subjects were 7204 men and women aged above 50 years from Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka, all of which are classified as Low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) in World Bank reports. Outcome variables were self-ported depression (SRD) and ever being diagnosed with depression. Association between frequency of moderate (MPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA) and depression was analysed by multivariable regression methods. Prevalence of self-reported depression was respectively 47.7%, 40.3%, 40.4% and 11.4% in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Prevalence of being ever diagnosed with depression was highest in Nepal (38.7%), followed by India (17.7%), Bangladesh (2.5%) and Sri Lanka (2%). Multivariable analysis shown statistically significant association between PA and diagnosed depression in Bangladesh and India, but not with SRD. In Bangladesh, compared to those who reported engaging in MPA on daily basis, the odds of reporting diagnosed depression were more than five times higher [AOR = 5.512; 95% CI = 1.159-26.21] for those who never took MPA. In India, those never took VPA had 44% higher [AOR = 1.442; 95% CI = 1.046-1.987] odds of being diagnosed with depression compared those who never engaged in VPA. Lower frequency of vigorous physical activity were significantly associated with higher rates of depression diagnosed
The author visited Asia as an Affiliate International Intern during January-February 1999. His experience working with the Bangkok regional office of Planned Parenthood Federation of America's (PPFA) Family Planning International Assistance (FPIA) and family planning projects in the Philippines and Bangladesh showed him how Planned Parenthood affiliates need to increase their commitment to international family planning. Planned Parenthood's education departments can play a major role toward that end. The 3 FPIA projects in Manila provide outreach, sexuality education, and the community-based distribution of contraceptives in very poor areas. They target youths involved in or at risk of becoming involved in prostitution. Barriers to effective outreach are largely organizational, and not in the field. Increasing outreach worker training and continuing education, organizational support strategies, and new outreach strategies were discussed with project staff. 4 days of training were subsequently conducted with project staff on educational/therapeutic encounters regarding sexuality. The author also worked with the FPIA regional office staff in Bangkok and the Bangladesh Association for the Prevention of Septic Abortion in Dhaka.
Wood, CP; Smith, RA; Samuelsen, GS
Isooctane, and mixtures of isooctane with various ring and aromatic compounds blended to yield the same smoke point were separately injected through a twin-fluid atomizer into a turbulent, swirl-stabilized model combustor. A nonintrusive optical probe based on larege angle (60°, 20°) intensity ratio scattering was used to yield a point measurement of soot particulate in the size range of 0.08 to 0.38 μm. The velocity and temperature fields were characterized by a two-color laser anemometer an...
Full Text Available We discuss multigroup SIRS (susceptible, infectious, and recovered epidemic models with random perturbations. We carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model; when reproduction number ℛ0>1, we deduce the globally asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium by measuring the difference between the solution and the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model in time average. Numerical methods are employed to illustrate the dynamic behavior of the model and simulate the system of equations developed. The effect of the rate of immunity loss on susceptible and recovered individuals is also analyzed in the deterministic model.
Geelen, Inge G P; Thielen, Noortje; Janssen, Jeroen J W M; Hoogendoorn, Mels; Roosma, Tanja J A; Willemsen, Sten P; Visser, Otto; Cornelissen, Jan J; Westerweel, Peter E
Evaluations of the 'real-world' efficacy and safety of tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia are scarce. A nationwide, population-based, chronic myeloid leukemia registry was analyzed to evaluate (deep) response rates to first and subsequent treatment lines and eligibility for a treatment cessation attempt in adults diagnosed between January 2008 and April 2013 in the Netherlands. The registry covered 457 patients; 434 in chronic phase (95%) and 15 (3%) in advanced disease phase. Seventy-five percent of the patients in chronic phase were treated with imatinib and 25% with a second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor. At 3 years 44% of patients had discontinued their first-line treatment, mainly due to intolerance (21%) or treatment failure (19%). At 18 months 73% of patients had achieved a complete cytogenetic response and 63% a major molecular response. Deep molecular responses (MR 4.0 and MR 4.5 ) were achieved in 69% and 56% of patients, respectively, at 48 months. All response milestones were achieved faster in patients treated upfront with a second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor, but ultimately patients initially treated with imatinib also reached similar levels of responses. The 6-year cumulative incidence of eligibility for a tyrosine kinase cessation attempt, according to EURO-SKI criteria, was 31%. Our findings show that in a 'real-world' setting the long-term outcome of patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors is excellent and the conditions for an attempt to stop tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy are met by a third of the patients. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.
Smarda, Petr; Horová, Lucie; Bures, Petr; Hralová, Ivana; Marková, Michaela
*Stabilizing selection is a key evolutionary mechanism for which there is relatively little experimental evidence. To date, stabilizing selection has never been observed at the whole-genome level. *We tested the effect of selection on genome size in a field experiment using seeds collected in a population of Festuca pallens with a highly variable genome size. Using flow cytometry, we measured the genome size in germinating seedlings and juvenile plants grown with or without high intraspecific competition (908 individuals). Above-ground biomass and leaf number were used as measurements of individual vegetative performance. The possible confounding effect of seed weight was controlled for in a separate experiment. *Growth under high competition had a significant stabilizing effect on genome size. Because no relationship was observed between genome size and vegetative performance, we assume that the elimination of plants with extreme genome sizes was the result of decreased survival as a consequence of some unrecognized stress. *Our results indicate that genome size may be under direct selection. The equal disadvantaging of either large or small genomes indicates that the selection for optimum genome size in species may be fully context dependent. This study demonstrates the power of competition experiments for the detection of weak selection processes.
O’Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne M.; Miller, Alison M.; Hamilton, Matthew G.; Williams, Dean; Glancy-Dean, Naomi; Potts, Brad M.
Understanding among and within population genetic variation of ecologically important plant traits provides insight into the potential evolutionary processes affecting those traits. The strength and consistency of selection driving variability in traits would be affected by plasticity in differences among genotypes across environments (G×E). We investigated population divergence, selection and environmental plasticity of foliar plant secondary metabolites (PSMs) in a dominant tree species, Eucalyptus globulus. Using two common garden trials we examined variation in PSMs at multiple genetic scales; among 12 populations covering the full geographic range of the species and among up to 60 families within populations. Significant genetic variation in the expression of many PSMs resides both among and within populations of E. globulus with moderate (e.g., sideroxylonal A h2op = 0.24) to high (e.g., macrocarpal G h2op = 0.48) narrow sense heritabilities and high coefficients of additive genetic variation estimated for some compounds. A comparison of Qst and Fst estimates suggest that variability in some of these traits may be due to selection. Importantly, there was no genetic by environment interaction in the expression of any of the quantitative chemical traits despite often significant site effects. These results provide evidence that natural selection has contributed to population divergence in PSMs in E. globulus, and identifies the formylated phloroglucinol compounds (particularly sideroxylonal) and a dominant oil, 1,8-cineole, as candidates for traits whose genetic architecture has been shaped by divergent selection. Additionally, as the genetic differences in these PSMs that influence community phenotypes is stable across environments, the role of plant genotype in structuring communities is strengthened and these genotypic differences may be relatively stable under global environmental changes. PMID:23526981
Julianne M O'Reilly-Wapstra
Full Text Available Understanding among and within population genetic variation of ecologically important plant traits provides insight into the potential evolutionary processes affecting those traits. The strength and consistency of selection driving variability in traits would be affected by plasticity in differences among genotypes across environments (G×E. We investigated population divergence, selection and environmental plasticity of foliar plant secondary metabolites (PSMs in a dominant tree species, Eucalyptus globulus. Using two common garden trials we examined variation in PSMs at multiple genetic scales; among 12 populations covering the full geographic range of the species and among up to 60 families within populations. Significant genetic variation in the expression of many PSMs resides both among and within populations of E. globulus with moderate (e.g., sideroxylonal A h(2op = 0.24 to high (e.g., macrocarpal G h(2op = 0.48 narrow sense heritabilities and high coefficients of additive genetic variation estimated for some compounds. A comparison of Qst and Fst estimates suggest that variability in some of these traits may be due to selection. Importantly, there was no genetic by environment interaction in the expression of any of the quantitative chemical traits despite often significant site effects. These results provide evidence that natural selection has contributed to population divergence in PSMs in E. globulus, and identifies the formylated phloroglucinol compounds (particularly sideroxylonal and a dominant oil, 1,8-cineole, as candidates for traits whose genetic architecture has been shaped by divergent selection. Additionally, as the genetic differences in these PSMs that influence community phenotypes is stable across environments, the role of plant genotype in structuring communities is strengthened and these genotypic differences may be relatively stable under global environmental changes.
Fernando, Nuwanthika; Arias, Veronica; Lewis, Geraint F.; Ibata, Rodrigo A.; Power, Chris
The planar arrangement of nearly half the satellite galaxies of M31 has been a source of mystery and speculation since it was discovered. With a growing number of other host galaxies showing these satellite galaxy planes, their stability and longevity have become central to the debate on whether the presence of satellite planes are a natural consequence of prevailing cosmological models, or represent a challenge. Given the dependence of their stability on host halo shape, we look into how a galaxy plane's dark matter environment influences its longevity. An increased number of dark matter subhaloes results in increased interactions that hasten the deterioration of an already-formed plane of satellite galaxies in spherical dark haloes. The role of total dark matter mass fraction held in subhaloes in dispersing a plane of galaxies presents non-trivial effects on plane longevity as well. But any misalignment of plane inclines to major axes of flattened dark matter haloes lead to their lifetimes being reduced to ≤3 Gyr. Distributing ≥40 per cent of total dark mass in subhaloes in the overall dark matter distribution results in a plane of satellite galaxies which is prone to change through the 5-Gyr integration time period.
Bret Harvey; Steven Railsback
Habitat fragmentation is widely assumed to have negative effects on populations and communities, but some effects of fragmentation are subtle, difficult to measure and not always negative. For stream fish, barriers to upstream passage, such as waterfalls or culverts with perched outlets, are a common cause of fragmentation. We explored the effects of barriers on a...
Vera, Manuel; Carlsson, Jens; Carlsson, Jeanette E.L.; Cross, Tom; Lynch, Sharon; Kamermans, Pauline; Villalba, Antonio; Culloty, Sarah; Martinez, Paulino
The flat oyster (Ostrea edulis) is one of the most appreciated molluscs in Europe, but natural beds have been greatly reduced due to harvesting and the effects of the parasite Bonamia ostreae. Characterization of current wild populations is required to develop long-term bed restoration programmes
Martin Dovciak; Charles B. Halpern
It is suggested that diversity destabilizes individual populations within communities; however, generalizations are problematic because effects of diversity can be confounded by variation attributable to community type, life history or successional stage. We examined these complexities using a 40-year record of reassembly in forest herb communities in two clearcut...
Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.
In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W
Howard, John J.; Etter, Delores M.
Iris recognition is increasingly being deployed on population wide scales for important applications such as border security, social service administration, criminal identification and general population management. The error rates for this incredibly accurate form of biometric identification are established using well known, laboratory quality datasets. However, it is has long been acknowledged in biometric theory that not all individuals have the same likelihood of being correctly serviced by a biometric system. Typically, techniques for identifying clients that are likely to experience a false non-match or a false match error are carried out on a per-subject basis. This research makes the novel hypothesis that certain ethnical denominations are more or less likely to experience a biometric error. Through established statistical techniques, we demonstrate this hypothesis to be true and document the notable effect that the ethnicity of the client has on iris similarity scores. Understanding the expected impact of ethnical diversity on iris recognition accuracy is crucial to the future success of this technology as it is deployed in areas where the target population consists of clientele from a range of geographic backgrounds, such as border crossings and immigration check points.
Martin-Sanz, Eduardo; Ortega Crespo, Isabel; Esteban-Sanchez, Jonathan; Sanz, Ricardo
Several studies have indicated better balance control in dancers than in control participants, but some controversy remains. The aim of our study is to evaluate the postural stability in a cohort of dancers, non-dancers, compensated, and non-compensated unilateral vestibular neuritis (VN). This is a prospective study of control subjects, dancers, and VN patients between June 2009 and December 2015. Dancers from the Dance Conservatory of Madrid and VN patients were referred to our department for analysis. After the clinical history, neuro-otological examination, audiogram, and caloric tests, the diagnosis was done. Results from clinical examination were used for the categorization of compensation situation. A computerized dynamic posturography was performed to every subject. Forty dancers and 38 women formed both 'dancer' and 'normal' cohorts. Forty-two compensated and 39 uncompensated patients formed both 'compensated' and 'uncompensated' cohorts. Dancers had significantly greater antero-posterior (AP) body sway than controls during condition 5 and 6 in the Sensory Organization Test (SOT) (p vestibular input alone. Compensated patients had a similar posturographic pattern that the dancers cohort, suggesting a similar shift from visual to somatosensory information.
Dawasaz, A A; Dinkar, Ajit D
The palatine rugae possess unique characteristics that could be used when it is difficult to identify a dead person according to fingerprints or dental records. They are permanent and unique to each person. The rugae are surrounded by cheeks, lips, tongue, and buccal pad of fat; hence, they remain protected in trauma, incineration, or mass disasters. Their pattern of orientation is formed by the 12th to 14th week of gestation and remains stable throughout life. In this study, dental casts of 120 patients were analyzed for individual rugae characteristics and strength and subsequent individual codes were given. No two individuals were having exactly matching rugae codes. Dimensions of rugae pattern, incisive papilla, and midpalatal raphe were also noted. Rugae were reevaluated after one year to check its stability, which showed no significant difference. The coding system followed can be adopted as a good and simple technique to achieve electronic transfer of the records of the palatal rugae. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Bashir, M. F.; Vranjes, J.
It is shown that the universally unstable kinetic drift wave in an electron-ion plasma can very effectively be suppressed by adding an extra flowing ion (or plasma) population. The effect of the flow of the added ions is essential, their response is of the type (vp h-vf 0) exp[-(vph-vf 0) 2] , where vf 0 is the flow speed and vp h is the phase speed parallel to the magnetic field vector. The damping is strong and it is mainly due to this ion exponential term, and this remains so for vf 0
Bashir, M F; Vranjes, J
It is shown that the universally unstable kinetic drift wave in an electron-ion plasma can very effectively be suppressed by adding an extra flowing ion (or plasma) population. The effect of the flow of the added ions is essential, their response is of the type (vph-vf0)exp[-(vph-vf0)2], where vf0 is the flow speed and vph is the phase speed parallel to the magnetic field vector. The damping is strong and it is mainly due to this ion exponential term, and this remains so for vf0vph.
Santos-Amaya, Oscar F; Tavares, Clébson S; Rodrigues, João Victor C; Campos, Silverio O; Guedes, Raul Narciso C; Alves, Analiza P; Pereira, Eliseu José G
The presence of fitness costs of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insecticidal proteins in insect populations may delay or even reverse the local selection of insect resistance to Bt transgenic crops, and deserves rigorous investigation. Here we assessed the fitness costs associated with Cry1Fa resistance in two strains of fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), derived from field collections in different Brazilian regions and further selected in the laboratory for high levels of resistance to Cry1Fa using leaves of TC1507 corn. Fitness components were compared using paired resistant and susceptible strains with similar genetic backgrounds and F 1 generations from reciprocal crosses, all of them reared on non-transgenic corn leaves. No apparent life history costs in the larval stage were observed in the Bt-resistant strains. Moreover, the resistance remained stable for seven generations in the absence of selection, with no decrease in the proportion of resistant individuals. Larval respiration rates were also similar between resistant and susceptible homozygotes, and heterozygotes displayed respiration rates and demographic performance equal or superior to those of susceptible homozygotes. In combination, these results indicate the lack of strong fitness costs associated with resistance to Cry1Fa in the fall armyworm strains studied. These findings suggest that Cry1Fa resistance in S. frugiperda populations is unlikely to be counterselected in Cry1Fa-free environments. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.
Jayanta Kumar Rout
Full Text Available Context: For any given body mass, Asian Indians have higher central obesity than Europeans. A periodic measurement of body mass index (BMI and waist hip ratio (WHR is practically more feasible than other parameters of metabolic syndrome by repeated blood collection. However, few studies are available on the relative importance of BMI and WHR as markers of dyslipidemia and insulin resistance in schizophrenia patients stabilized on second generation antipsychotics in Indian population. Aim: We conducted the present study on such patients to examine whether BMI or WHR can better predict dyslipidemia and insulin resistance in these patients in a rural area. Settings and Design: The study was a hospital based case control study under rural settings on 38 schizophrenia patients stabilized on olanzapine and 30 matched controls. Materials and Methods: Fasting concentrations of blood glucose, lipid parameters and serum insulin were assessed. Data for Homeostatic model for assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, BMI, and WHR were obtained to assess the insulin resistance, overall body fat distribution and abdominal fat dispensation respectively. Statistical analysis used: ′t′ test was performed to assay any difference in corresponding mean values between cases and controls. Dependence of HOMA-IR on key parameters was assessed by analysis of co-variance (ANCOVA study. Results: Cases exhibited significantly higher values for HOMA-IR, serum triglyceride and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc with a significantly lower high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc level. ANCOVA study reflected that irrespective of age and sex, HOMA-IR was dependent on serum triglyceride level and WHR (F=8.3 and 5.7 respectively, P<0.05, but not on BMI (F<0.001, P=0.997. Conclusions: Central obesity could be more closely associated with the pathogenesis of prediabetic state in our case group. So, WHR is a better anthropometric parameter than BMI for an early
Schurer, J M; Phipps, K; Okemow, C; Beatch, H; Jenkins, E
Free-roaming dog populations are a global concern for animal and human health including transmission of infectious disease (e.g. rabies, distemper and parasites), dog bite injuries/mortalities, animal welfare and adverse effects on wildlife. In Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, veterinary care is difficult to access in the remote and sparsely inhabited northern half of the province, where the population is predominately Indigenous. Even where veterinary clinics are readily available, there are important barriers such as cost, lack of transportation, unique cultural perspectives on dog husbandry and perceived need for veterinary care. We report the effects of introducing a community action plan designed to improve animal and human health, increase animal health literacy and benefit community well-being in two Indigenous communities where a dog-related child fatality recently occurred. Initial door-to-door dog demographic surveys indicated that most dogs were sexually intact (92% of 382 dogs), and few had ever been vaccinated (6%) or dewormed (6%). Approximately three animal-related injuries requiring medical care were reported in the communities per 1000 persons per year (95% CL: 1.6-6.6), and approximately 86% of 145 environmentally collected dog faecal samples contained parasites, far above levels reported in other urban or rural settings in SK. Following two subsidized spay/neuter clinics and active rehoming of dogs, parasite levels in dog faeces decreased significantly (P dog demographic profile. This project demonstrates the importance of engaging people using familiar, local resources and taking a community specific approach. As well, it highlights the value of integrated, cross-jurisdictional cooperation, utilizing the resources of university researchers, veterinary personnel, public health, environmental health and community-based advocates to work together to solve complex issues in One Health. On-going surveillance on dog bites, parasite levels and dog
AlAbdulwahab, Sami S; Kachanathu, Shaji John
Foot biomechanics and core stability (CS) play significant roles in the quality of standing and walking. Minor alterations in body composition may influence base support or CS strategies. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the body mass index (BMI) on the foot posture index (FPI) and CS in a healthy adult population. A total of 39 healthy adult subjects with a mean age of 24.3±6.4 years and over-weight BMI values between 25 and 29.9 kg/m2 (27.43±6.1 kg/m2) participated in this study. Foot biomechanics were analyzed using the FPI. CS was assessed using a plank test with a time-to-failure trial. The Spearman correlation coefficient indicated a significant correlation between BMI and both the FPI (r=0.504, P=0.001) and CS (r= -0.34, P=0.036). Present study concluded that an overweight BMI influences foot posture alignment and body stability. Consequently, BMI should be considered during rehabilitation management for lower extremity injuries and body balance.
Garcia-Rea, Elizabeth A.; LePage, James P.
With the high number of homeless, there is a critical need for rapid and accurate assessment of quality of life to assess program outcomes. The World Health Organization's WHOQOL-100 has demonstrated promise in accurately assessing quality-of-life in this population. However, its length may make large scale use impractical for working with a…
Liao, Chih-Hsien; Tan, Elise Chia-Hui; Chen, Chien-Chih; Yang, Ming-Chin
Laparoscopic colectomy is increasingly being adopted for the treatment of colon cancer; however, the long-term effectiveness of this approach in a real-world clinical setting has yet to be verified. This study aims to compare the effectiveness and costs associated with laparoscopic and open colectomy from the perspective of the National Health Insurance (NHI) system in Taiwan. A nationwide population-based colon cancer cohort was observed by linking the Taiwan Cancer Registry, claims data from NHI system, and the National Death Registry. Adult patients with Stage I to Stage III colon cancer who underwent primary cancer resection using either laparoscopy or open colectomy between 2009 and 2011 were included. A propensity score-matched cohort (1745 pairs) was applied to examine three clinical endpoints: overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and disease-free survival within 2 years after the operation. To comply with the perspective as well as the analytic horizon of the study, we limited the research to NHI claims from the study population for the corresponding time period. The health outcomes and net monetary benefits were verified by multivariate mixed-effect models. This analysis revealed that laparoscopy resulted in longer overall survival (adjusted difference 16.8 days, 95 % CI 7.3-26.2), recurrence-free survival (16.8 days, 5.0-28.6) and disease-free survival (26.4 days, 7.4-45.4), compared to open colectomy at 2 years post-op. Laparoscopy also led to a significantly shorter length of stay (3.2 days, 2.4-3.9) and lower index hospitalization costs (US$ 455, 181-729) than open colectomy; however, no differences in costs were observed over the long term. Overall, laparoscopy was more cost-effective than open colectomy under various willingness-to-pay thresholds in the setting of the Taiwan NHI. The continued adoption of laparoscopy in primary curable colon cancer resection is expected to reduce health care costs over the short term while providing
Weinberger, Andrea H.; Pilver, Corey E.; Mazure, Carolyn M.; McKee, Sherry A.
Aims To determine smoking transitions in a representative sample of United States (U.S.) adults. Design Longitudinal study using data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (Wave 1, 2001–2002; Wave 2, 2004–2005). Setting The general U.S. adult population. Participants 33,309 adults (54% female) classified as Wave 1 Current Daily, Current Non-Daily, Former Daily, Former Non-Daily, or Never Smokers. Measurements Smoking transitions were determined from Wave 1 and Wave 2 data. Findings Smoking status remained stable for the majority of current daily (79.8%), former daily (95.8%), former non-daily (96.3%), and never (97.1%) smokers. Among current non-daily smokers, 54.5% quit smoking while 22.5% increased to daily smoking. Current daily smokers who were older (30–44, OR=0.62; 95% CI=0.49–0.87; 45+, OR=0.75; 95% CI=0.61–0.93) and unmarried (OR=0.80, 95% CI=0.66–0.96) were less likely to report smoking cessation. Current daily smokers who were Hispanic (OR=2.15, 95% CI=1.65–2.81) and college educated (OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.05–1.53) were more likely to report smoking cessation. Relapse in former daily smokers was greater in women (OR=1.44, 95% CI=0.27–0.74) and lower in older adults (OR=0.44; 95% CI=0.27–0.74). Smoking initiation occurred less in women (OR=0.65; 95% CI=0.49–0.87) and Hispanic adults (OR=0.57; 95% CI=0.36–0.91) and more in unmarried adults (OR=1.84; 95% CI=1.09–2.44) and adults with less education (OR=1.63; 95% CI=1.09–2.44). Conclusions From 2001 to 2005, smoking status was extremely stable in the United States population. Specific gender, race, and educational groups need increased prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:24916157
Elaydi, Saber; Sacker, Robert J.
Elaydi and Yakubu showed that a globally asymptotically stable(GAS) periodic orbit in an autonomous difference equation must in fact be a fixed point whenever the phase space is connected. In this paper we extend this result to periodic nonautonomous difference equations via the concept of skew-product dynamical systems. We show that for a k-periodic difference equation, if a periodic orbit of period r is GAS, then r must be a divisor of k. In particular sub-harmonic, or long periodic, oscillations cannot occur. Moreover, if r divides k we construct a non-autonomous dynamical system having minimum period k and which has a GAS periodic orbit with minimum period r. Our methods are then applied to prove a conjecture by J. Cushing and S. Henson concerning a non-autonomous Beverton-Holt equation which arises in the study of the response of a population to a periodically fluctuating environmental force such as seasonal fluctuations in carrying capacity or demographic parameters like birth or death rates.
Dr. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the UN Population Fund, spoke at the Congressional Women's Caucus on July 20th in Washington, DC. In her speech, she asked for the compassion and pragmatism of the US and the industrialized world to support the population programs of developing countries. She stated that although the ICPD+5 Review confirmed the success of the Programme of Action, which has provided remarkable changes throughout the world, there are still many continuing problems and constraints. Some of these include high maternal mortality rate, high HIV/AIDS infection rates, the poor status of the youth, and prevalence of gender inequality issues. In addition, she emphasized the problem of funding, which is the major obstacle to the implementation of the Programme of Action. A total of $17 billion is needed to implement such program by the year 2000. Much is still needed for the execution and realization of the goals of the Programme of Action.
Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others
Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…
Eighteen different terms, currently employed to define various concepts of evolutionary stability in population dynamics are mentioned in this paper. Most of these terms are used in different connotations and even different meanings by different authors. On the other hand, different terms are often employed by different authors to define quite the same concept. Twenty-five years ago there was only one, well-defined, concept of stability, universally recognized in the field. In this paper I will try to relate the recent confusion, concerning concepts of population stability, with a more serious, though not that well-recognized, confusion in the modern analytic approach to population dynamics and quantitative evolution. Concepts of population stability will be examined in relation to each other on the one hand and, on the other hand, in relation to two dichotomies regarding the dynamic processes to which they correspond: Short-term versus long-term processes and processes concerning phenotypic changes versus process concerning genotypic changes. A hopefully more consistent use of the current terminology is suggested.
Rietjens, L.H.Th. (Technische Univ. Eindhoven (Netherlands))
Actions to be taken in order to better control the developments in the world can be divided in general actions (birth control and polemology), short or medium term actions (<20 years), and long term actions (>20 years). Resources in the world (knowledge, skilled manpower, energy and finances) are limited. A clean environment has to be included in the world's resources. Our present resources can hardly meet the legitimate demands of a world population of eight billion people. In order to create acceptable conditions for survival in all areas in the world, social education should lead, via birth control and responsible parenthood, to a stabilization of the world population of 8 billion people. A better understanding of the basic causes of international conflicts is needed. Therefore the activities of existing global and regional institutes on polemology should be strengthened. Energy conservation is a must. Through optimization and combination of (energy)cycles another 25% savings can be achieved. Deep conservation through a change of lifestyle can be realized by taxes on the use of energy or through reduction of income. Given the present resources and taking into account the available technology, nuclear energy has to be included in the world energy scene. The nuclear option requests strict international control on operation and waste management. Transfer of resources should be based on a global strategy. Resources should be activated in those areas of the world where they will be most effective. Given the limited resources in the world, long term actions should be based on international cooperation through existing bodies. 5 figs., 4 refs.
Benjet, Corina; Borges, Guilherme; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Zambrano, Joaquin; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio
Background: Because the epidemiologic data available for adolescents from the developing world is scarce, the objective is to estimate the prevalence and severity of psychiatric disorders among Mexico City adolescents, the socio-demographic correlates associated with these disorders and service utilization patterns. Methods: This is a multistage…
Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.
The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.
Norberg, Helena; Bergdahl, Ellinor; Lindmark, Krister
This study aims to investigate the eligibility of the Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor (ARNI) with ACE inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) study to a real-world heart failure population. Medical records of all heart failure patients living within the catchment area of Umeå University Hospital were reviewed. This district consists of around 150 000 people. Out of 2029 patients with a diagnosis of heart failure, 1924 (95%) had at least one echocardiography performed, and 401 patients had an ejection fraction of ≤35% at their latest examination. The major PARADIGM-HF criteria were applied, and 95 patients fulfilled all enrolment criteria and thus were eligible for sacubitril-valsartan. This corresponds to 5% of the overall heart failure population and 24% of the population with ejection fraction ≤ 35%. The eligible patients were significantly older (73.2 ± 10.3 vs. 63.8 ± 11.5 years), had higher blood pressure (128 ± 17 vs. 122 ± 15 mmHg), had higher heart rate (77 ± 17 vs. 72 ± 12 b.p.m.), and had more atrial fibrillation (51.6% vs. 36.2%) than did the PARADIGM-HF population. Only 24% of our real-world heart failure and reduced ejection fraction population was eligible for sacubitril-valsartan, and the real-world heart failure and reduced ejection fraction patients were significantly older than the PARADIGM-HF population. The lack of data on a majority of the patients that we see in clinical practice is a real problem, and we are limited to extrapolation of results on a slightly different population. This is difficult to address, but perhaps registry-based randomized clinical trials will help to solve this issue. © 2018 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
Merrill, Ray M; Bowen, Elise; Hager, Ron L
This study assesses chronic disease or disease-related conditions as motivators of physical activity. It also compares these and other motivators of physical activity between Senior Games participants (SGPs) and the general population. Analyses are based on an anonymous cross-sectional survey conducted among 666 SGPs and 177 individuals from the general population. SGPs experienced better general health and less obesity, diabetes, and depression, as well as an average of 14.7 more years of regular physical activity ( p physical activity. Percentages were similar between SGPs and the general population. SGPs were more likely motivated to be physically active to improve physical and mental health in the present, to prevent physical and cognitive decline in the future, and to increase social opportunities. The Senior Games reinforces extrinsic motivators to positively influence intrinsic promoters such as skill development, satisfaction of learning, enjoyment, and fun.
Full Text Available The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia. Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk
Kerr, Natalie Z; Baxter, Peter W J; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Wardle, Glenda M; Buckley, Yvonne M
Management of invasive populations is typically investigated case-by-case. Comparative approaches have been applied to single aspects of management, such as demography, with cost or efficacy rarely incorporated.We present an analysis of the ranks of management actions for 14 species in five countries that extends beyond the use of demography alone to include multiple metrics for ranking management actions, which integrate cost, efficacy and demography (cost-effectiveness) and managers' expert opinion of ranks. We use content analysis of manager surveys to assess the multiple criteria managers use to rank management strategies.Analysis of the matrix models for managed populations showed that all management actions led to reductions in population growth rate (λ), with a median 48% reduction in λ across all management units; however, only 66% of the actions led to declining populations (λ metrics. Synthesis and applications . A multidimensional view of the benefits and costs of management options provides a range of single and integrated metrics. These rankings, and the relationships between them, can be used to assess management actions for invasive plants. The integrated cost-effectiveness approach goes well 'beyond demography' and provides additional information for managers; however, cost-effectiveness needs to be augmented with information on off-target effects and social impacts of management in order to provide greater benefits for on-the-ground management.
Nørgaard, Jørgen; Bermudez, Juan Gea; Balyk, Olexandr
and the needed land area to support human life as a function of population, affluence, technological development and diet. It is shown that focusing on technology development alone will likely not be enough to mitigate global warming and stay well below a 2 °C temperature increase. Therefore, the discussion...
Banerjee, A; Lane, D A; Torp-Pedersen, C
on patients with non-valvular AF between 1997-2008, for dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban on the basis of recent clinical trial outcome data for these new OACs. In patients with CHADS2=0 but at high bleeding risk, apixaban and dabigatran 110 mg bid had a positive net clinical benefit. At CHA2DS2-VASc=1...... in AF. Using 'real world' data, our modelling analysis has shown that when the risk of bleeding and stroke are both high, all three new drugs appear to have a greater net clinical benefit compared to warfarin....... risk of stroke and thromboembolism gain the greatest benefit from OAC with warfarin. There are no data for the new OACs, that is, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban, as yet. We calculated the net clinical benefit balancing IS against ICH using data from the Danish National Patient Registry...
Ray M. Merrill PhD, MPH
Full Text Available This study assesses chronic disease or disease-related conditions as motivators of physical activity. It also compares these and other motivators of physical activity between Senior Games participants (SGPs and the general population. Analyses are based on an anonymous cross-sectional survey conducted among 666 SGPs and 177 individuals from the general population. SGPs experienced better general health and less obesity, diabetes, and depression, as well as an average of 14.7 more years of regular physical activity ( p < .0001, 130.8 more minutes per week of aerobic activity ( p < .0001, and 42.7 more minutes of anaerobic activity per week ( p < .0001. Among those previously told they had diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or depression, 74.2%, 72.2%, 70.4%, and 60.6%, respectively, said that it motivated them to increase their physical activity. Percentages were similar between SGPs and the general population. SGPs were more likely motivated to be physically active to improve physical and mental health in the present, to prevent physical and cognitive decline in the future, and to increase social opportunities. The Senior Games reinforces extrinsic motivators to positively influence intrinsic promoters such as skill development, satisfaction of learning, enjoyment, and fun.
Margaux A Morrison
Full Text Available We observed that the third leading cause of blindness in the world, age-related macular degeneration (AMD, occurs at a very low documented frequency in a population-based cohort from Timor-Leste. Thus, we determined a complete catalogue of the ancestry of the Timorese by analysis of whole exome chip data and haplogroup analysis of SNP genotypes determined by sequencing the Hypervariable I and II regions of the mitochondrial genome and 17 genotyped YSTR markers obtained from 535 individuals. We genotyped 20 previously reported AMD-associated SNPs in the Timorese to examine their allele frequencies compared to and between previously documented AMD cohorts of varying ethnicities. For those without AMD (average age > 55 years, genotype and allele frequencies were similar for most SNPs with a few exceptions. The major risk allele of HTRA1 rs11200638 (10q26 was at a significantly higher frequency in the Timorese, as well as 3 of the 5 protective CFH (1q32 SNPs (rs800292, rs2284664, and rs12066959. Additionally, the most commonly associated AMD-risk SNP, CFH rs1061170 (Y402H, was also seen at a much lower frequency in the Korean and Timorese populations than in the assessed Caucasian populations (C ~7% vs. ~40%, respectively. The difference in allele frequencies between the Timorese population and the other genotyped populations, along with the haplogroup analysis, also highlight the genetic diversity of the Timorese. Specifically, the most common ancestry groupings were Oceanic (Melanesian and Papuan and Eastern Asian (specifically Han Chinese. The low prevalence of AMD in the Timorese population (2 of 535 randomly selected participants may be due to the enrichment of protective alleles in this population at the 1q32 locus.
Klimenko, V. V.; Tereshin, A. G.
Results obtained from a study of the present state of the world's power engineering, prospects for its future development, and its effect on the environment and climate for the period of up to 2200 are presented. It is shown that, given the framework of modern tendencies in the development of civilization, it is expected that the number of the population on the planet, consumption of energy in the world, and scales of negative effect on the atmosphere will all be stabilized.
Full Text Available Ochratoxin A is a nephrotoxic and renal carcinogenic mycotoxin and is a common contaminant of various food commodities. Eighty six kinds of foodstuffs (1032 food samples were collected in 2011–2013. High-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection was used for ochratoxin A determination. Limit of quantification of the method varied between 0.01–0.2 μg/kg depending on the food matrices. The most exposed population is children aged 4–6 years old. Globally for this group, the maximum ochratoxin A dietary exposure for “average consumer” was estimated at 3.3 ng/kg bw/day (lower bound, considering the analytical values below the limit of quantification as 0 and 3.9 ng/kg bw/day (middle bound, considering the analytical values below the limit of quantification as 1/2 limit of quantification. Important sources of exposure for this latter group include grain-based products, confectionery, meat products and fruit juice. The dietary intake for “high consumers” in the group 4–6 years old was estimated from grains and grain-based products at 19.8 ng/kg bw/day (middle bound, from tea at 12.0 ng/kg bw/day (middle bound and from confectionery at 6.5 ng/kg bw/day (middle bound. For men aged 18–59 years old beer was the main contributor with an intake of 2.60 ng/kg bw/day (“high consumers”, middle bound. Tea and grain-based products were identified to be the main contributors for dietary exposure in women aged 18–59 years old. Coffee and wine were identified as a higher contributor of the OTA intake in the population group of women aged 18–59 years old compared to the other population groups.
International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).
In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…
Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…
Ng, S. P.; Dimitroulopoulou, C.; Grossinho, A.; Chen, L. C.; Kendall, M.
On 11 September 2001, the explosion and the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers in New York City (NYC), USA, generated a massive release of dust and inhalable toxic substances to the atmosphere as a result of the pulverization of various building materials, furniture, and computers. Many concerns were raised as Particulate Matter (PM) levels in Lower Manhattan might not meet the current National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) (65 μg m -3). The current study aims to provide a first estimate of the scale of population exposures during this episode. Data collected from existing monitoring stations in September showed the occurrence of a series of high peaks of PM 2.5 registered in the Lower Manhattan area after the 11 September. An interpolation technique was used within a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) environment to estimate outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations over NYC. Monthly average of 24 h outdoor PM 2.5 concentration of Lower Manhattan was 20.2 μg m -3 and did not exceed the NAAQS value. PM 2.5 concentrations in indoor micro-environments were simulated by a deterministic micro-environmental model (INTAIR) and linear regression equations. Three typical population groups were identified for the NYC area—home-makers, office/shop-workers, and students/children—and their 12 h nighttime and daytime exposures were estimated from 14 September until the end of September, either as mean exposure (daytime and nighttime) or as exposure weighted by residential population distribution (nighttime only). Average nighttime and daytime exposures of the Lower Manhattan population were calculated to be 37.3 and 23.6 μg m -3, respectively (daily average: 30.45 μg m -3), in which the various group movements and activities, smoking habits of individuals, and special population movements due to access restrictions and risk avoidance behaviors were considered. Within the study period, assuming the real nighttime population distribution followed the
Park, A W; Vandekerkhove, J; Michalakis, Y
Like many organisms, individuals of the freshwater ostracod species Eucypris virens exhibit either obligate sexual or asexual reproductive modes. Both types of individual routinely co-occur, including in the same temporary freshwater pond (their natural habitat in which they undergo seasonal diapause). Given the well-known two-fold cost of sex, this begs the question of how sexually reproducing individuals are able to coexist with their asexual counterparts in spite of such overwhelming costs. Environmental stochasticity in the form of 'false dawn' inundations (where the first hydration is ephemeral and causes loss of early hatching individuals) may provide an advantage to the sexual subpopulation, which shows greater variation in hatching times following inundation. We explore the potential role of environmental stochasticity in this system using life-history data analysis, climate data, and matrix projection models. In the absence of environmental stochasticity, the population growth rate is significantly lower in sexual subpopulations. Climate data reveal that 'false dawn' inundations are common. Using matrix projection modelling with and without environmental stochasticity, we demonstrate that this phenomenon can restore appreciable balance to the system, in terms of population growth rates. This provides support for the role of environmental stochasticity in helping to explain the maintenance of sex and the occurrence of geographical parthenogenesis. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Nixon, Stuart; Kujirakwinja, Deo K.; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Critchlow, Rob; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Nishuli, Radar; Kirkby, Andrew E.; Hall, Jefferson S.
Grauer’s gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World’s largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer’s gorilla’s range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer’s gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi-Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82–100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km2. We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer’s gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. PMID:27760201
Lebech, Anne-Mette; Gerstoft, Jan; Hesse, Birger
-associated morbidity and mortality rates. Accordingly, the prevalence of HIV-associated cardiac dysfunction may also have changed. The aim of the study was to establish the prevalence of right- and left-sided cardiac dysfunction in a Danish HIV population, most of whom were undergoing HAART, with radionuclide...... ventriculography. METHODS: Ninety-five consecutive patients with HIV infection were included. Mean HIV duration was 104 months, and 84% of the patients received HAART. All patients underwent radionuclide ventriculography, and plasma levels of atrial natriuetic peptide (ANP), brain natriuetic peptide (BNP......), and endothelin-1 (ET-1) were measured. Thirty age- and sex-matched healthy volunteer subjects were included to establish reference values of radionuclide measurements of left and right ventricular ejection fraction and of left ventricular volume. RESULTS: Of 95 patients with HIV, 1 (1%) had a reduced left...
Nabte, Marcela J; Marino, Andrea I; Rodríguez, María Victoria; Monjeau, Adrián; Saba, Sergio L
Sheep rearing is the main productive activity in Patagonian rangelands, where guanacos are the only native ungulate. Ranchers perceive a decrease in range carrying capacity as guanaco numbers increase, therefore guanaco conservation within private lands becomes a considerable challenge. This issue is particularly evident in the World Natural Heritage Península Valdés (PV), where there is a need to harmonize livestock production and biodiversity conservation. While sheep rearing prevails as the primary land use in the area, some ecotourism initiatives have been implemented to complement livestock production. In order to study how land use affected guanaco distribution, we characterized PV's ranches in terms of land subdivision, primary productivity, stocking-rate and management type, and assess how these variables affected guanaco encounter rates. Smaller ranches were composed of smaller paddocks (mean size 4.8 km(2)), which showed higher values of the remote-sensing derived Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI) (mean 0.14) and held higher sheep densities (mean 108.0 sheep/km(2)), while larger management units (mean size 23.8 km(2)), showed lower EVI values (mean 0.12) and lower stocking-rates (mean 36.7 sheep/km(2)). This pattern suggests that primary productivity has been a decisive factor to determine the minimal paddock size set by ranchers in PV, apparently precluding excessive land-subdivision in less productive areas. Guanaco encounter rate, expressed as number of guanacos per travelled kilometre, was inversely related to EVI and stocking-rate. However, land subdivision was the better predictor of guanaco encounter-rate within only sheep ranches, finding more guanacos per kilometre as paddock size increased. In contrast, in ranches where ecotourism was implemented as a complementary activity, guanaco encounter-rates were greater, regardless of paddock size. Our results suggest that the implementation of an additional activity by which landowners derive benefits
Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Eg Nielsen, Einar; Swain, Douglas P.
were used to estimate the effective population size. Over the period, we observed no loss of either heterozygosity or allelic diversity. Several of the estimation methods applied could not distinguish the effective population size from infinity, and the lower 95% confidence limit on estimates...... was generally >500, suggesting that the effective population size is probably considerably larger than this. Hence, it appears that the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock has maintained genetic variability to sustain future evolution despite a dramatic population decline......Worldwide, many commercial fish stocks have experienced dramatic declines due to overfishing. Such fisheries-induced population reductions could potentially erode the genetic diversity of marine fish populations. Based on analyses of DNA extracted from archived and contemporary samples, this paper...
McDonagh, L; García, R; Stevens, J R
Larval infestations of the New World screwworm (NWS) fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax, cause considerable economic losses through the direct mortality and reduced production of livestock. Since the 1950s, NWS populations in North and Central America have been the target of virtually continuous eradication attempts by sterile insect technique (SIT). Nevertheless, in some areas, such as Jamaica, SIT-based control programmes have failed. Reasons for the failure of SIT-based programmes in some locations are unknown, but it is hypothesized that failure may be related to the mating incompatibility between sterile and wild flies or to the existence of sexually incompatible cryptic species. Accordingly, the current research investigates intraspecific phylogenetic relationships and associated biogeographic patterns between NWS populations from the Caribbean and South America, which represent those populations involved in, or earmarked for, forthcoming SIT programmes. Uniquely, this study also includes analyses of two North American samples, collected in Texas in 1933 and 1953 prior to initiation of the SIT-based eradication programme. The study utilizes three nucleotide datasets: elongation factor-1alpha (nuclear); cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (mitochondrial), and 12S rRNA (mitochondrial). Phylogenetic analysis of these data, representing populations from across the Caribbean, South America and Texas, indicates sub-structuring of fly populations on several of the larger Caribbean islands, suggesting a period of isolation and/or founder effects following colonization from South America; significantly, our findings do not support a North American origin for Cuban flies. The importance of these findings in the light of proposed SIT programmes in the region is discussed.
Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....
Mohammadi, Musa; Gibbs, Adrian J; Hosseini, Ahmad; Hosseini, Samin
Beet mosaic virus (BtMV), the only Potyvirus known to infect sugar beet, occurs worldwide in beet crops. The full genome sequencing of a BtMV isolate from Iran (Ir-VRU), enabled us to better understand the evolutionary history of this virus. Selection analysis suggested that BtMV evolution is mainly under negative selection but its strength varies in different proteins with the multifunctional proteins under strongest selection. Recombination has played a major role in the evolution of the BtMVs; only the Ir-VRU and USA isolates show no evidence of recombination. The ML phylogenies of BtMVs from coat protein and full sequences were completely congruent. The primary divergence of the BtMV phylogeny is into USA and Eurasian lineages, and the latter then divides to form a cluster only found in Iran, and a sister cluster that includes all the European and Chinese isolates. A simple patristic dating method estimated that the primary divergence of the BtMV population was only 360 (range 260-490) years ago, suggesting an emergence during the development of sugar beet as a crop over the past three centuries rather than with the use of leaf beet as a vegetable for at least 2000 years.
Fresia, Pablo; Silver, Micha; Mastrangelo, Thiago; De Azeredo-Espin, Ana Maria L; Lyra, Mariana L
The myiasis causing New World screwworm (NWS) fly is responsible for substantial losses to livestock breeders in the Americas. Due to the negative impact of the NWS fly in animal health, expansion of successful NWS fly eradication programmes is under discussion. However, the effects of geography and environmental diversity on NWS population structure and migration patterns need to be assessed before any political decision is made to implement such a programme. We present a GIS tool to construct potential connection corridors among sampling localities based on genetic and environmental data. We integrate, through a home-made python script, a friction raster based on a Maxent niche model and the pairwise ΦST statistic. Among 38 NWS fly sampling localities from South America, we find a high population connectivity among the sampling localities from the south of the Amazon region. The region along the Atlantic Ocean was identified as the most probable migration corridor between the north (NAG) and the south (SAG) of the Amazon region. The approach highlighted previously undetected population structure within NAG showing low to medium connectivity through the Andes, correlating with current understanding of NWS fly migration in South America. Also, the approach is flexible, allowing future research to incorporate other niche simulations and genetic differentiation metrics. With this flexibility, the tool could become part of any AW-IPM by helping to target regions for control. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Un, Puikei; Fu, Lixin; Hao, Jiming
Modeling fuel consumption of light-duty passenger vehicles has created substantial concerns due to the uncertainty from real-world operating conditions. Macao is world-renowned for its tourism industry and high population density. An empirical model is developed to estimate real-world fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for gasoline-powered light-duty passenger vehicles in Macao by considering local fleet configuration and operating conditions. Thanks to increasingly stringent fuel consumption limits in vehicle manufacturing countries, estimated type-approval fuel consumption for light-duty passenger vehicles in Macao by model year was reduced from 7.4 L/100 km in 1995 to 5.9 L/100 km in 2012, although a significant upsizing trend has considerably offset potential energy-saving benefit. However, lower driving speed and the air-conditioning usage tend to raise fleet-average fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emission factors, which are estimated to be 10.1 L/100 km and 240 g/km in 2010. Fleet-total fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are modeled through registered vehicle population-based and link-level traffic demand approaches and the results satisfactorily coincide with the historical record of fuel sales in Macao. Temporal and spatial variations in fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from light-duty passenger vehicles further highlight the importance of effective traffic management in congested areas of Macao. - Highlights: • A fuel consumption model is developed for Macao's light-duty passenger cars. • Increased vehicle size partially offset energy benefit from tightened fuel consumption standard. • Lower speed and use of air-conditioning greatly increase fuel use of Macao light-duty passenger cars. • A high resolution inventory of fuel use and carbon dioxide emissions is built with link-level traffic data. • Policy suggestions are provided to mitigate fuel use in a traffic populated city.
Fernandez, H; Descamps, P; Koskas, M; Lopès, P; Brun, J L; Darai, E; Agostini, A
To characterize and describe treatment with ulipristal acetate (UPA) in a preoperative setting and to evaluate the safety, effectiveness, and Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) outcomes in a French population treated according to standard clinical practice. Multicentre, prospective, non-interventional study (PREMYA) of patients diagnosed with moderate to severe symptoms of uterine fibroids and undergoing a preoperative treatment with UPA 5mg (Esmya ® ). Patients were followed for a total of 15months (3months UPA treatment and 12months after). Data were collected approximatively every 3months according to centre usual visit schedule. A total of 206 women were enrolled in France, of whom 197 were found to be eligible for data analysis. Physicians' assessments of patients' overall symptomatic changes, as measured on the Clinical Global Impression-Improvement (CGI-I) scale, indicated that 83.7% of patients were improved at end of treatment (month 3). On the patients' treatment benefit scale (PTBS), 94.7% of patients reported an improvement. These 2 measurements, pain and quality of life, remained improved after treatment cessation and during the entire period of follow-up. Only 58.4% of patients underwent surgery within the timeframe of the study follow-up of which the majority were of a conservative/minimal invasive nature. Many patients did not undergo surgery during the planned 12months follow-up period after treatment whereas all patients had an indication of surgery. All measurements of treatment outcome were markedly improved by 3 months of UPA 5mg treatment. NCT01635452. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Ekstrom, Victoria; Kumar, Rajneesh; Zhao, Yi; Yee, Mei Ling; Sung, Cynthia; Toh, Dorothy; Loh, Poh Yen; Tan, Jessica; Teo, Eng Kiong; Chow, Wan Cheng
Background and aim: Conventional hepatitis C treatment using pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin is associated with significant side effects. IL28B polymorphism can predict response to treatment, with CC genotype having a better response. ITPA gene deficiency protects against clinically significant anaemia induced by treatment. The purpose of this study was to determine IL28B polymorphism and ITPA variation among hepatitis C genotype 1 patients who have undergone therapy with PEG-IFN and ribavirin and their association with sustained viral response (SVR). Methods: All hepatitis C genotype 1 patients who had been treated with PEG-IFN and ribavirin over the past 10 years were identified by available medical records and were contacted by letter of invitation to participate in the study. Blood samples for IL28B and ITPA genotyping were obtained. Medical records were reviewed for verification of treatment response, development of anaemia and if treatment reduction was required during the treatment. Results: A total of 61 patients with hepatitis C genotype 1 were treated with PEG-IFN and ribavirin, of whom 42 agreed to participate in the study. Mean age was 45.6±12.9 years at time of treatment, and 83.3% of patients were males. Thirty-three (78.6%) had IL28B CC genotype, of whom 25 (75.8%) obtained SVR compared with only 3 of 9 (33.3%) non C/C genotype patients who achieved SVR ( P =0.041). Eleven (26.1%) patients had ITPA AC genotype, and 30 (71.4%) had CC genotype. There was no statistically significant difference between ITPA AC and CC genotypes in predicting clinically significant anaemia (45.5% vs 63.3%, P =0.302). Even among patients who developed anaemia, 70.8% still managed to achieve SVR. Treatment reduction also had no impact on SVR. Conclusion: Hepatitis C genotype 1 patients should be informed of the response rate for treatment with PEG-IFN and ribavirin in a population with favourable IL28B genotype before consideration of newer therapeutic options.
The three goals of the UN World Summit for Social Development are to attack poverty, build solidarity, and create jobs. Unprecedented population growth has led to recognition of the need for a new, people-centered vision of development to counter the mutually reinforcing threats posed to world stability by poverty, unemployment, and social disintegration. This population growth may result in an inability of humanity to adapt and create unrelenting pressure on the world's natural resources. It has become increasingly recognized that improvements in the status of women will be vital to ensuring the future of humanity. Giving women the ability to decide their family size will eliminate hundreds of thousands of maternal deaths each year and will slow population growth while it increases women's productivity and control over resources. As the industrialized nations engage in unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, the lowest-income countries are caught in a "poverty-population-environment spiral." Although population growth is gradually slowing, the population of the world could double by 2050, with 95% of the growth occurring in developing countries. Concern is also mounting over the increasing urbanization of the world as well as the fact that while the populations of poor countries are becoming larger and younger, the population of industrialized countries are becoming older and smaller. The new vision of sustainable development involves generating economic growth, distributing benefits equitably, and allowing the regeneration of the environment. Without such security, the world can not achieve peace. The symptoms of social discrimination include social exclusion, which affects 90% of the world's population; sex and racial discrimination, which lowers the quality of life and increases life-threatening risks for women, indigenous people, and Blacks; violence and abuse, reflected in fact that the US has the highest incidence of murder in the world, in the
De Vries, B.
In this report we introduce simulation-gaming as a tool to explore long-term futures. The model world of SusClime is a simple world with two capital stocks, one producing goods ('goods producing capital') and one providing services including consumption ('population capital') for the people. The necessary energy is delivered by two capital stocks, one based on oil ('carbon-energy') and one on renewable energy ('alternative'). Investments in energy efficiency bring down the required energy. The important decisions in the game are about investments, that is, the allocation of the goods produced among these five capital stocks. Moreover, the two countries can trade oil and make loans. The major challenge is to go through the demographic transition by increasing the welfare per person and to make the transition from oil to renewable energy. The latter is needed to avoid negative impacts on the economy due to rising CO 2 -concentrations. After the description of the game, some suggestions for systematic experiments are made as a way to gain a better understanding about how cultural bias affects people's perception of and behaviour with regard to aspects of the quest for sustainable development. 10 figs., 2 tabs., 36 refs., 6 appendices
Deslandes, Guillaume; Grégoire, Matthieu; Bouquié, Régis; Le Marec, Aude; Allard, Sophie; Dailly, Eric; Pineau, Alain; Allain-Launay, Emma; Jolliet, Pascale; Roussey, Gwenaëlle; Navas, Dominique
♦ OBJECTIVES: Assess the stability of several antibiotics in peritoneal dialysis (PD) solutions under common conditions of use in pediatrics, particularly in automated PD. ♦ METHODS: Amoxicillin, cefazolin, cefepime, ceftazidime, imipenem, cotrimoxazole, tobramycin, vancomycin, and the association of ceftazidime + vancomycin and ceftazidime + tobramycin, were tested in 3 different PD solutions: bicarbonate/lactate solution with 2 glucose concentrations (Physioneal 1.36 and 3.86%; Baxter Healthcare Corporation, Deerfield, IL, USA) and an icodextrin-containing solution (Extraneal; Baxter Healthcare Corporation, Deerfield, IL, USA). Concentrations were those recommended in guidelines for the treatment of peritonitis in pediatrics. Physioneal bags were incubated at 37°C for 24 hours, whereas Extraneal bags were stored 12 hours at room temperature (22 ± 2°C) and then 12 hours at 37°C. Drug concentrations were determined using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Each measure was taken in triplicate. Stability of antibiotics was defined as less than 10% degradation of the drug over time. ♦ RESULTS: Cefazolin, cotrimoxazole, tobramycin, and vancomycin were stable under studied conditions. Ceftazidime was stable 24 hours in icodextrin, 12 hours in Physioneal 1.36% and 6 hours in Physioneal 3.86%. The association of tobramycin or vancomycin did not influence the stability of ceftazidime. Cefepime and amoxicillin were stable 6 h, 4 h, and 8 h in Physioneal 1.36%, 3.86% and Extraneal, respectively. The stability of imipenem was very low: 2 h in Physioneal and 6 h in Extraneal. Moreover, an increasingly yellow coloration was observed with the use of imipenem, whereas no color change or precipitation occurred in other bags. ♦ CONCLUSION: Cefazolin, tobramycin, cotrimoxazole, and vancomycin are stable in PD solutions up to 24 hours and can be administered in the PD bag for the treatment of peritonitis, even in automated PD under studied conditions. However
Spirin, V V; López-Mercado, C A; Kinet, D; Mégret, P; Fotiadi, A A; Zolotovskiy, I O
We demonstrate a single-longitudinal-mode Brillouin ring fiber laser passively stabilized at the resonance frequency with a 1.7 m section that is an unpumped polarization-maintaining erbium-doped fiber. The two coupled all-fiber Fabry–Perot interferometers that comprise the cavity, in combination with the dynamical population inversion gratings self-induced in the active fiber, provide adaptive pump-mode selection and Stokes wave generation at the same time. The laser is shown to emit a single-frequency Stokes wave with a linewidth narrower than 100 Hz. (letter)
Brown, Lester R.; And Others
The first of a series of annual reports for policy makers, this publication focuses on evaluating changes in the interplay between the world's changing resource base and the economic system. Following an overview, content is divided into 10 additional chapters covering population stabilization, the world's dependence on oil, soil conservation,…
Full Text Available P. vivax is an important public health burden in Ethiopia, accounting for almost half of all malaria cases. Owing to heterogeneous transmission across the country, a stronger evidence base on local transmission dynamics is needed to optimise allocation of resources and improve malaria interventions.In a pilot evaluation of local level P. vivax molecular surveillance in southern Ethiopia, the diversity and population structure of isolates collected between May and November 2013 were investigated. Blood samples were collected from microscopy positive P. vivax patients recruited to clinical and cross-sectional surveys from four sites: Arbaminch, Halaba, Badawacho and Hawassa. Parasite genotyping was undertaken at nine tandem repeat markers. Eight loci were successfully genotyped in 197 samples (between 36 and 59 per site. Heterogeneity was observed in parasite diversity and structure amongst the sites. Badawacho displayed evidence of unstable transmission, with clusters of identical clonal infections. Linkage disequilibrium in Badawacho was higher (IAS = 0.32, P = 0.010 than in the other populations (IAS range = 0.01-0.02 and declined markedly after adjusting for identical infections (IAS = 0.06, P = 0.010. Other than Badawacho (HE = 0.70, population diversity was equivalently high across the sites (HE = 0.83. Polyclonal infections were more frequent in Hawassa (67% than the other populations (range: 8-44%. Despite the variable diversity, differentiation between the sites was low (FST range: 5 x 10-3-0.03.Marked variation in parasite population structure likely reflects differing local transmission dynamics. Parasite genotyping in these heterogeneous settings has potential to provide important complementary information with which to optimise malaria control interventions.
Birt, Julie A; Tan, YingMeei; Mozaffarian, Neelufar
To better understand the real-world characteristics and costs of Sjögren's syndrome (SS). Analysing the MarketScan Commercial Claims database from Jan. 1, 2006 to Dec. 31, 2011, we identified 10,414 patients ≥18 years old newly diagnosed with SS. Patient characteristics, drugs (commonly used for SS), resource utilisation, and medical costs were evaluated for 12 months pre- and post-diagnosis. Mean age was 55 years; 90% were female. At diagnosis, SS patients were most often seen by rheumatologists (39%) or internists (14.2%); the most common concurrent autoimmune conditions were rheumatoid arthritis (17.9%) and systemic lupus erythematosus (14.6%). Other common comorbidities were hypertension (37.6%), osteoarthritis (31.4%), and hyperlipidaemia/dyslipidaemia (30.3%). Post diagnosis of SS, claims for myocardial infarction and coronary artery bypass graft doubled. Medications of interest prescribed post-diagnosis were eye/mouth drugs (32.2%) and synthetic immunosuppressants (32.1%). Biologic drugs were prescribed to a minority (TNF inhibitors, ~5.0%; non-TNF inhibitors, 1%). Of note, prescriptions for all systemic immunotherapies (synthetic and biologic) were significantly lower in the subgroup without concurrent autoimmune disease, and 15.1% of the overall population had no SS-related prescriptions. Post diagnosis, total medical resource utilisation and total medical costs increased (1.2 and 1.4-fold, respectively). In this retrospective, real-world analysis, medical claims in the first year after SS diagnosis revealed that cardiovascular (CV) events increased and all-cause healthcare costs grew by 40%. Pharmacologic management consisted primarily of low potency immunomodulation and symptomatic treatments. Systemic disease-modifying therapies were used mostly in patients who had another concurrent autoimmune disease, suggesting a lack of treatment options for SS.
Harold J. Berman
Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.
The Contagion and Stability Game provided a forum% for discussing the military, economic, informational, political, and medical aspects of contagion in an environmentally stressed region of the less-developed world-South Asia...
Harold J. Berman; Robert W. Woodruff; James Barr Ames
In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the ...
Mathot, Sebastiaan; Theeuwes, Jan
In the present review, we address the relationship between attention and visual stability. Even though with each eye, head and body movement the retinal image changes dramatically, we perceive the world as stable and are able to perform visually guided actions. However, visual stability is not as
Manjerovic, Mary Beth; Green, Michelle L; Mateus-Pinilla, Nohra; Novakofski, Jan
Strategies to contain the spread of disease often are developed with incomplete knowledge of the possible outcomes but are intended to minimize the risks associated with delaying control. Culling of game species by government agencies is one approach to control disease in wild populations but is unpopular with hunters and wildlife enthusiasts, politically unpalatable, and erodes public support for agencies responsible for wildlife management. We addressed the functional differences between hunting and government culling programs for managing chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer by comparing prevalence over a 10-year period in Illinois and Wisconsin. When both Illinois and Wisconsin were actively culling from 2003 - 2007, there were no statistical differences between state CWD prevalence estimates. Wisconsin government culling concluded in 2007 and average prevalence over the next five years was 3.09 ± 1.13% with an average annual increase of 0.63%. During that same time period, Illinois continued government culling and there was no change in prevalence throughout Illinois. Despite its unpopularity among hunters, localized culling is a disease management strategy that can maintain low disease prevalence while minimizing impacts on recreational deer harvest. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Abstract Background WHO estimates suggest that age-specific death rates from non-communicable diseases are higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in high-income countries. The objectives of this study were to examine, in Burkina Faso, the prevalence of non-communicable disease symptoms by age, gender, socioeconomic group and setting (rural/urban, and to assess gender and socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of these symptoms. Methods We obtained data from the Burkina Faso World Health Survey, which was conducted in an adult population (18 years and over with a high response rate (4822/4880 selected individuals. The survey used a multi-stage stratified random cluster sampling strategy to identify participants. The survey collected information on socio-demographic and economic characteristics, as well as data on symptoms of a variety of health conditions. Our study focused on joint disease, back pain, angina pectoris, and asthma. We estimated prevalence correcting for the sampling design. We used multiple Poisson regression to estimate associations between non-communicable disease symptoms, gender, socioeconomic status and setting. Results The overall crude prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI were: 16.2% [13.5; 19.2] for joint disease, 24% [21.5; 26.6] for back pain, 17.9% [15.8; 20.2] for angina pectoris, and 11.6% [9.5; 14.2] for asthma. Consistent relationships between age and the prevalence of non-communicable disease symptoms were observed in both men and women from rural and urban settings. There was markedly high prevalence in all conditions studied, starting with young adults. Women presented higher prevalence rates of symptoms than men for all conditions: prevalence ratios and 95% CIs were 1.20 [1.01; 1.43] for joint disease, 1.42 [1.21; 1.66] for back pain, 1.68 [1.39; 2.04] for angina pectoris, and 1.28 [0.99; 1.65] for asthma. Housewives and unemployed women had the highest prevalence rates of non-communicable disease
Miszkurka, Malgorzata; Haddad, Slim; Langlois, Étienne V; Freeman, Ellen E; Kouanda, Seni; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria
WHO estimates suggest that age-specific death rates from non-communicable diseases are higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in high-income countries. The objectives of this study were to examine, in Burkina Faso, the prevalence of non-communicable disease symptoms by age, gender, socioeconomic group and setting (rural/urban), and to assess gender and socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of these symptoms. We obtained data from the Burkina Faso World Health Survey, which was conducted in an adult population (18 years and over) with a high response rate (4822/4880 selected individuals). The survey used a multi-stage stratified random cluster sampling strategy to identify participants. The survey collected information on socio-demographic and economic characteristics, as well as data on symptoms of a variety of health conditions. Our study focused on joint disease, back pain, angina pectoris, and asthma. We estimated prevalence correcting for the sampling design. We used multiple Poisson regression to estimate associations between non-communicable disease symptoms, gender, socioeconomic status and setting. The overall crude prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were: 16.2% [13.5; 19.2] for joint disease, 24% [21.5; 26.6] for back pain, 17.9% [15.8; 20.2] for angina pectoris, and 11.6% [9.5; 14.2] for asthma. Consistent relationships between age and the prevalence of non-communicable disease symptoms were observed in both men and women from rural and urban settings. There was markedly high prevalence in all conditions studied, starting with young adults. Women presented higher prevalence rates of symptoms than men for all conditions: prevalence ratios and 95% CIs were 1.20 [1.01; 1.43] for joint disease, 1.42 [1.21; 1.66] for back pain, 1.68 [1.39; 2.04] for angina pectoris, and 1.28 [0.99; 1.65] for asthma. Housewives and unemployed women had the highest prevalence rates of non-communicable disease symptoms. Our work suggests that social inequality extends
Aboa-Eboulé, Corine; Béjot, Yannick; Cottenet, Jonathan; Khellaf, Mehni; Jacquin, Agnès; Durier, Jérôme; Rouaud, Olivier; Hervieu-Begue, Marie; Osseby, Guy-Victor; Giroud, Maurice; Quantin, Catherine
Acute stress may trigger vascular events. We aimed to investigate whether important football competitions involving the French football team increased the occurrence of stroke. We retrospectively retrieved data of fatal and nonfatal stroke during 4 World Football Cups (1986, 1998, 2002, and 2006) and 4 European Championships (1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004), based on data from the population-based Stroke Registry of Dijon, France. One period of exposure was analyzed: the period of competition extended to 15 days before and after the competitions. The number of strokes was compared between exposed and unexposed corresponding periods of preceding and following years using Poisson regression. A total of 175 strokes were observed during the exposed periods compared with 192 and 217 strokes in the unexposed preceding and following periods. Multivariate regression analyses showed an overall 30% significant decrease in stroke numbers between periods of competition and unexposed periods of following year (risk ratio (RR) = 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.6; P = .029) but not with that of preceding year (RR = 1.1; 95% CI = .9-1.3; P = .367). This was mostly explained by a 40% decrease in stroke numbers during European Championships, compared with the unexposed following periods (RR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.0-1.9; P = .044) in stratified analyses by football competitions. Watching European football competitions had a positive impact in the city of Dijon with a decrease of stroke numbers. European championship is possibly associated with higher television audience and long-lasting euphoria although other factors may be involved. Further studies using nationwide data are recommended to validate these findings. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Katherine E Mues,1 Alexander Liede,1 Jiannong Liu,2 James B Wetmore,2 Rebecca Zaha,1 Brian D Bradbury,1 Allan J Collins,2 David T Gilbertson2 1Center for Observational Research, Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks and San Francisco, CA, 2Chronic Disease Research Group, Minneapolis, MN, USA Abstract: Medicare is the federal health insurance program for individuals in the US who are aged ≥65 years, select individuals with disabilities aged <65 years, and individuals with end-stage renal disease. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services grants researchers access to Medicare administrative claims databases for epidemiologic and health outcomes research. The data cover beneficiaries’ encounters with the health care system and receipt of therapeutic interventions, including medications, procedures, and services. Medicare data have been used to describe patterns of morbidity and mortality, describe burden of disease, compare effectiveness of pharmacologic therapies, examine cost of care, evaluate the effects of provider practices on the delivery of care and patient outcomes, and explore the health impacts of important Medicare policy changes. Considering that the vast majority of US citizens ≥65 years of age have Medicare insurance, analyses of Medicare data are now essential for understanding the provision of health care among older individuals in the US and are critical for providing real-world evidence to guide decision makers. This review is designed to provide researchers with a summary of Medicare data, including the types of data that are captured, and how they may be used in epidemiologic and health outcomes research. We highlight strengths, limitations, and key considerations when designing a study using Medicare data. Additionally, we illustrate the potential impact that Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services policy changes may have on data collection, coding, and ultimately on findings derived from the data. Keywords: Medicare
Arnold, Suzanne V.; Kosiborod, Mikhail; Tang, Fengming; Zhao, Zhenxiang; McCollam, Patrick L.; Birt, Julie; Spertus, John A.
Aggressively managing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) after myocardial infarction (MI) is a cornerstone of secondary prevention. The changes in LDL-C after MI and the factors associated with LDL-C levels are unknown. Therefore, we directly measured fasting LDL-C levels in 797 MI patients from 24 US hospitals from 2005 to 2008. Mean LDL-C levels at discharge, 1 month, and 6 months were 95.1, 81.9, and 87.1 mg/dL, respectively. In a hierarchical, multivariable, repeated measures model, older age, male sex, and hypertension were associated with lower LDL-C levels, whereas self-reported avoidance of health care because of cost was associated with higher LDL-C. Both the presence and intensity of statin therapy at discharge were strongly associated with LDL-C levels, with adjusted mean 6-month changes of −3.4 mg/dL (95% confidence interval (CI): −12.1, 5.3) for no statins; 1.7 mg/dL (95% CI: −4.7, 8.1) for low statins; −10.2 mg/dL (95% CI: −14.5, −6.0) for moderate statins; and −13.9 mg/dL (95% CI: −19.7, −8.0) for intensive statins (P < 0.001). In conclusion, we found that greater reductions in LDL-C levels after MI were strongly associated with the presence and intensity of statin therapy, older age, male sex, hypertension, and better socioeconomic status. These findings support the use of intensive statin therapy in post-MI patients and provide estimates of the expected LDL-C changes after MI in a real-world population. PMID:24743066
Smith, Philip H; Zhang, Ju; Weinberger, Andrea H; Mazure, Carolyn M; McKee, Sherry A
Meta-analyses of clinical trial data have identified clinically relevant gender differences in the efficacy of smoking cessation pharmacotherapy. It is unclear whether these findings are generalizable to smokers quitting in real-world contexts. Using Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) 2010-2011 cross-sectional data, we generated propensity score matched samples of smokers who quit either unassisted by medication, using only varenicline, or using only transdermal nicotine patch (TNP). We used generalized estimating equations to estimate gender differences in the comparative effectiveness of these cessation options for achieving 30-days of abstinence, adjusting for potential confounders. When stratified by gender, TNP was significantly more effective than unassisted quit attempts for men (OR=1.37; 95%CI=1.02,1.83; p=0.03), but not for women (OR=0.96; 95%CI=0.71,1.31; p=0.82). Varenicline was significantly more effective than unassisted quit attempts for women (OR=1.63; 95%CI=1.16, 2.31; p=0.005), but not men (OR=1.35; 95%CI=0.94,1.96; p=0.11). Varenicline was also more effective than TNP for women (OR=1.51; 95%CI=0.12,2.05; p=0.007) but not men (OR=0.92; 95%CI=0.65,1.31; p=0.64). A significant gender by medication interaction was found only for the comparison of varenicline to TNP (OR=1.64; 95%CI=1.04,2.61; p=0.04). Findings for varenicline vs. TNP were consistent with clinical trial data, showing greater differences in effectiveness for women compared to men. Results lend support to the generalizability of clinical trial findings, highlighting the importance of considering gender when offering treatment for smoking cessation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Incongruent nuclear and mitochondrial genetic structure of new world screwworm fly populations due to positive selection of mutations associated with dimethyl- and diethyl-organophosphates resistance.
Bergamo, Luana Walravens; Fresia, Pablo; Azeredo-Espin, Ana Maria L
Livestock production is an important economic activity in Brazil, which has been suffering significant losses due to the impact of parasites. The New World screwworm (NWS) fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax, is an ectoparasite and one of the most important myiasis-causing flies endemic to the Americas. The geographic distribution of NWS has been reduced after the implementation of the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT), being eradicated in North America and part of Central America. In South America, C. hominivorax is controlled by chemical insecticides, although indiscriminate use can cause selection of resistant individuals. Previous studies have associated the Gly137Asp and Trp251Leu mutations in the active site of carboxylesterase E3 to resistance of diethyl and dimethyl-organophosphates insecticides, respectively. Here, we have sequenced a fragment of the carboxylesterase E3 gene (ChαE7), comprising part of intron iII, exon eIII, intron iIII and part of exon eIV, and three mitochondrial gene sequences (CR, COI and COII), of NWS flies from 21 locations in South America. These markers were used for population structure analyses and the ChαE7 gene was also investigated to gain insight into the selective pressures that have shaped its evolution. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and pairwise FST analysis indicated an increased genetic structure between locations in the ChαE7 compared to the concatenated mitochondrial genes. Discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and spatial analysis of molecular variance (SAMOVA) indicated different degrees of genetic structure for all markers, in agreement with the AMOVA results, but with low correlation to geographic data. The NWS fly is considered a panmitic species based on mitochondrial data, while it is structured into three groups considering the ChαE7 gene. A negative association between the two mutations related to organophosphate resistance and Fay & Wu's H significant negative values for the exons, suggest
Hiremath, Shirish; Chandra, Praveen; Desai, Devang; Sivakumar, R.; Selvamani, S.; Srinivasan, Anand; Paulose, Madhu; Jose, Sajy; Kalmath, B.C.; Magarkar, Vilas.P.; Pathak, Abhijeet; Mhetre, Tushar
Objectives This study aims to assess the safety and efficacy of a biodegradable polymer-coated Rapamycin-Eluting Stent (Excel) used in conjunction with six-month dual antiplatelet therapy in daily practice. Background The polymeric material of cardiac stents has been reported to adversely affect the safety profile of the drug-eluting stents and is also suspected to cause serious long-term complications. It has been proposed that the biodegradable polymer coatings may reduce such late-stage adverse effects. Methods This is a prospective, multi-center registry of 654 patients from across 9 cardiology centers in India, who were enrolled and exclusively treated with Excel stents between February 2008 and May 2010. The recommended antiplatelet regimen included clopidogrel and aspirin for 6 months period, followed by lifelong aspirin therapy. Results The study population included 46.94% diabetics, 24.31% smokers, 48.93% hypertensives and 14.98% hyperlipidemics. The cumulative rates of major adverse cardiac events were 0.153% at discharge and 1.38% at 12 months. The mean percentage of stenosis was 88.24 ± 9.17% No events occurred between 6 and 12 months. Conclusions This multi-center registry study on “real world, all comers” has, thus, showed that EXCEL™ stent which is PLA-coated biodegradable Rapamycin-Eluting Stent exhibited high efficacy and safety profile in treatment of patients undergoing PCI as evidenced by significantly lower rates of MACE and no case of stent thrombosis. There was no event even after DAPT was discontinued after 6 months. PMID:25634407
Bellakhal, Meher; Neveu, André; Fertouna-Bellakhal, Mouna; Aleya, Lotfi
Amphibian populations are in decline principally due to climate change, environmental contaminants, and the reduction in wetlands. Even though data concerning current population trends are scarce, artificial wetlands appear to play a vital role in amphibian conservation. This study concerns the reproductive biology of the Sahara frog over a 2-year period in four Tunisian man-made lakes. Each month, gonad state (parameters: K, GSI, LCI), fecundity, and fertility of females (using 1227 clutches) were evaluated in the field under controlled conditions. Clutches were present for 110-130 days at two of the sites, but only for 60-80 days at the other two. Maximum egg laying occurred in May, corresponding to the highest point in the gonad somatic index. Clutch densities were higher in the smaller lakes. Female fecundity was in relation to body size; mean clutch fecundity attained 1416 eggs, with no differences observed according to site. Egg fertility varied over a 1-year period, with a maximum in May followed by a decrease when water temperature was at its highest. Eggs were smaller at the beginning of spawning; maximum size was in May, which might explain the higher fertility, but no maternal influence was detected. Embryonic development was strictly dependent on temperature. The population at each site appeared as a small patch within a metapopulation in overall good health, as shown by the relative temporal stability in reproduction variables. Constructed wetlands may therefore play an important role in the conservation of amphibians, especially in semi-arid zones.
Leonardo P. Capelli
Full Text Available In order to investigate the stability of the FMR1 (Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 alleles from the normal population, when maternally inherited, we analyzed 75 mother-to-son transmissions. Sixty-eight alleles fell within the common range with 20-40 CGG repeats, and seven alleles were intermediate, with 41-48 repeats. No change was observed either in the length or in the structure of these repeats upon transmission. Fifty-three alleles were ascertained in different families, and their size distribution was similar to those described for European and European-derived populations, with three peaks of frequency: 66% of the alleles with (CGG29, (CGG30 or (CGG31, 7.5% with (CGG20, and 5.7% with (CGG23. Regarding the AGG interspersion pattern, 69.8% had two AGG repeats, 20.8% had one, 5.7% had three and 3.8% had none. The most common patterns were 10+9+9 (30.2%, 9+9+9 (18.9%, 10+9 (7.5%, and 10+9+10 (7.5%. About 70% of the alleles with up to 40 repeats were linked to the DXS548/FRAXAC1 haplotype 7-3, the most commonly reported in normal populations. Four out of five intermediate alleles were in linkage with the two haplotypes most frequently associated to the FMR1 full mutation, 2-1 and 6-4. These four alleles showed long uninterrupted CGG repeats at the 3' end. The 9+9+22, 9+9+23 and 9+9+28 alleles were linked to the haplotype 2-1, and the 9+37 allele, to the haplotype 6-4. The pattern of AGG interspersion of these alleles and the associated haplotypes were in accordance with the two main pathways toward mutation previously proposed.
The principal objective of the Third International Conference on Population and Development to be held in Cairo in 1994 is to achieve consensus on a Plan of Action to reinforce reproductive rights of individuals, who bear ultimate responsibility for slowing population growth. The Plan of Action should be adopted by all the peoples of the world in order to stabilize population growth during the next twenty years by means of programs to provide family planning and reproductive health services. The preliminary conference document incorporated recommendations and proposals of two preparatory committees, five regional conferences, six expert meetings, 109 countries, and over 400 nongovernmental organizations from around the world. At current rates of growth, the world's 5.7 billion inhabitants will increase to 9.1 billion by the year 2025, vastly increasing pressure on already limited resources and ecosystems. The central theme of the first World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974 was the close relationship between population growth and socioeconomic development. The 1974 World Population Plan of Action stressed development of strategies to achieve a better quality of life and rapid socioeconomic development. Recommendations of the 1984 World Population Conference in Mexico remained centered on implementation of the Bucharest Plan of Action with a few additions. Although progress has been achieved in meeting the goals of the Bucharest Plan of Action, growth rates of some developing countries have actually increased. Poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and discrimination against women are still obstacles to socioeconomic development, and contraceptive usage has not reached optimal levels. Urban migration remains excessive. Progress for many countries over the past decade has been directly related to increasing the access of women to health care and family planning. Themes related to women's status and rights will be incorporated in the 1994 Cairo Conference. The
Schabert, Vernon F; Watson, Crystal; Gandra, Shravanthi R; Goodman, Seth; Fox, Kathleen M; Harrison, David J
To calculate annual cost per treated patient of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors etanercept, adalimumab, and infliximab for common approved indications, based on actual TNF-inhibitor use in clinical practice. Adults with ≥1 claim for etanercept, adalimumab, or infliximab between January 2005 and March 2009 were identified from the IMS LifeLink™ Health Plan Claims Database. Patients new to therapy or continuing therapy (i.e., a prior claim for a TNF-inhibitor) were analyzed separately. Included patients had been enrolled from 180 days before the first TNF-inhibitor claim (index date) through 360 days after the index date and had a diagnosis during the pre-index period for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, or ankylosing spondylitis. Patients with Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis were excluded. Annual costs were calculated using wholesale acquisition costs for the TNF-inhibitor and Medicare Physician Fee Schedule for drug administration. Costs from restarting or switching TNF-inhibitor therapy during the first year were included. A total of 27,704 patients (11,528 new, 16,176 continuing) had claims for etanercept, adalimumab, or infliximab, most commonly (65%) for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. The most commonly used agent was etanercept (14,777 patients; 53%), followed by adalimumab (6862 patients; 25%) and infliximab (6065 patients; 22%). Annual cost per treated patient was etanercept $14,873, adalimumab $17,766, and infliximab $21,256 across all indications. Annual cost per treated patient by disease was (etanercept/adalimumab/infliximab): rheumatoid arthritis ($14,314/$17,700/$20,390), psoriasis ($17,182/$17,682/$23,935), psoriatic arthritis ($15,030/$18,483/$24,974), and ankylosing spondylitis ($14,254/$16,925/$23,056). New and continuing patients showed similar results, with etanercept having the lowest costs. This analysis is limited to three TNF-inhibitors and a US managed-care population
Duncan, E.R. (ed.)
The focus of this book is on the several principal dimensions of population and food problems and their interactions as they appear in 1976. The authors view the present situation as difficult and urgent, but certainly not as impossible. The emphasis of this book is on agriculture and providing food to hungry people to gain time for stabilizing the human population at a manageable level. Seventeen papers dealing with the issue are: A Review of Population and Trends, E.R. Duncan; Human Nutritional Needs and Food Sources, John N. Hathcock, Josefa S. Eusebio; The Food-Producing Regions of the World, Louis M. Thompson; Energy Use in Food Production, David Pimentel, Elinor Cruze Terhune; Land Ownership and Tenure, Peter Dorner; Climate and Weather for Food Production, R.H. Shaw; Soil Resources--Characteristics, Potentials, and Limitations, William D. Shrader; Animals--Potentials and Limitations for Human Food, N.L. Jacobson, G.N. Jacobson; Food Crops--Production, Limitations, and Potentials, D.G. Woolley; Crop Production Practices, J.W. Pendleton; Food Losses--Situation and Opportunities for Improvement, Harry E. Snyder; Constraints to Change--Social, Political, and Economic, Loyd K. Fischer; Institutions and Facilities--Development Considerations, Melvin G. Blase; Food Policies of Governments, Roy D. Laird, Betty A. Laird; Credit and Credit Systems for Food Production, Mervin G. Smith; Education and Training for Adoption and Diffusion of New Ideas, Joe M. Bohlen; and Assistance to Developing Nations, Douglas Ensminger.
Hozumi, Cristiny Gomes
The human exposure to ionizing radiation coming from natural sources is an inherent feature of human life on earth, for man and all living things have always been exposed to these sources. Ionizing radiation is a known genotoxic agent which can affect the genomic stability and genes related to DNA repair may play a role when they have committed certain polymorphism. This study aimed to analyze the frequency of polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes of DNA repair and cell cycle control: hOGG1 (Ser326Cys), XRCC3 (Thr241 Met) and p53 (Arg72Pro) in saliva samples from a population located Monte Alegre, state of Para were collected in August 2008 and 40 samples of men and 46 samples of women, adding a total of 86 samples. By RFLP was determined the frequency of homozygous genotypes and / or heterozygous for polymorphic genes. The I)OGG1 gene was 5% of the allele 326Cys, XRCC3 gene found about 21 % of the allele 241 Met and p53 gene showed 40.8% of the 72Pro allele. And the genotype frequencies of individuals for the three genes were 91.04%, 88.06% and 59.7% for homozygous wild genotype, 5.97%, 11.94% and 22.39% for heterozygote genotype and 2,99%, zero and 17:91% for homozygous polymorphic hOGG1 genes respectively, XRCC3, p53. These values are similar to those found in previous studies. The influence of these polymorphisms, which are involved in DNA repair and consequent genotoxicity induced by radiation depends on dose and exposure factors such as smoking, which is statistically a factor in public health surveillance in the region. This study gathered information and molecular epidemiology in Monte Alegre, that help to characterization of local population. (author)
Background Little is known about the stability of behavioural and developmental problems as children develop from infants to toddlers in the general population. Therefore, we investigated behavioural profiles at two time points and determined whether behaviours are stable during early development. Methods Parents of 4,237 children completed questionnaires with 62 items about externalizing, internalizing, and social-communicative behaviour when the children were 14–15 and 36–37 months old. Factor mixture modelling identified five homogeneous profiles at both time points: three with relatively normal behaviour or with mild/moderate problems, one with clear communication and interaction problems, and another with pronounced negative and demanding behaviour. Results More than 85% of infants with normal behaviour or mild problems at 14–15 months were reported to behave relatively typically as toddlers at 36–37 months. A similar percentage of infants with moderate communication problems outgrew their problems by the time they were toddlers. However, infants with severe problems had mild to severe problems as toddlers, and did not show completely normal behaviour. Improvement over time occurred more often in children with negative and demanding behaviour than in children with communication and interaction problems. The former showed less homotypic continuity than the latter. Conclusions Negative and demanding behaviour is more often transient and a less specific predictor of problems in toddlerhood than communication and interaction problems. PMID:25061477
Waser Jürgen; Fuchs Raphael; Ribicic Hrvoje; Schindler Benjamin; Blöschl Günther; Gröller Eduard
In this paper we present World Lines as a novel interactive visualization that provides complete control over multiple heterogeneous simulation runs. In many application areas decisions can only be made by exploring alternative scenarios. The goal of the suggested approach is to support users in this decision making process. In this setting the data domain is extended to a set of alternative worlds where only one outcome will actually happen. World Lines integrate simulation visualization and...
Wong, Leah Y; Lange, Douglas S; Sebastyn, Jerome T; Roof, William H
.... The Command World scenario was expressly designed as a crisis action planning exercise in order to replicate the communications, collaboration, and information requirements inherent in a military...
National Inst. of Child Health and Human Development (NIH), Bethesda, MD.
The scope of population research as carried on by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) is set forth in this booklet. Population problems of the world, United States, and the individual are considered along with international population policies based on voluntary family planning programs. NICHD goals for biological…
Shashidhar, B.; And Others
Population education has assumed enormous importance in the national and international arena, since population changes influence the quality of life of individuals, families, the nation and the world as a whole. Population education has, however, special significance to India since young persons below the age of 15 are reported to form about 42%…
Full Text Available Abstract Background Harmful algal blooms deteriorate the services of aquatic ecosystems. They are often formed by cyanobacteria composed of genotypes able to produce a certain toxin, for example, the hepatotoxin microcystin (MC, but also of nontoxic genotypes that either carry mutations in the genes encoding toxin synthesis or that lost those genes during evolution. In general, cyanobacterial blooms are favored by eutrophication. Very little is known about the stability of the toxic/nontoxic genotype composition during trophic change. Results Archived samples of preserved phytoplankton on filters from aquatic ecosystems that underwent changes in the trophic state provide a so far unrealized possibility to analyze the response of toxic/nontoxic genotype composition to the environment. During a period of 29 years of re-oligotrophication of the deep, physically stratified Lake Zürich (1980 to 2008, the population of the stratifying cyanobacterium Planktothrix was at a minimum during the most eutrophic years (1980 to 1984, but increased and dominated the phytoplankton during the past two decades. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction revealed that during the whole observation period the proportion of the toxic genotype was strikingly stable, that is, close to 100%. Inactive MC genotypes carrying mutations within the MC synthesis genes never became abundant. Unexpectedly, a nontoxic genotype, which lost its MC genes during evolution, and which could be shown to be dominant under eutrophic conditions in shallow polymictic lakes, also co-occurred in Lake Zürich but was never abundant. As it is most likely that this nontoxic genotype contains relatively weak gas vesicles unable to withstand the high water pressure in deep lakes, it is concluded that regular deep mixing selectively reduced its abundance through the destruction of gas vesicles. Conclusions The stability in toxic genotype dominance gives evidence for the adaptation to deep mixing of a
Escudero, Graciela; Navedo, Juan G.; Piersma, Theunis; De Goeij, Petra; Edelaar, Pim
The long-distance migrant red knot (Calidris canutus ssp. rufa Scolopacidae) alternates between the northern and southern ends of the New World, one of the longest yearly migrations of any bird and paradoxically overflying apparently suitable habitat at lower latitudes. This subspecies is sharply
Heller, René; Armstrong, John
To be habitable, a world (planet or moon) does not need to be located in the stellar habitable zone (HZ), and worlds in the HZ are not necessarily habitable. Here, we illustrate how tidal heating can render terrestrial or icy worlds habitable beyond the stellar HZ. Scientists have developed a language that neglects the possible existence of worlds that offer more benign environments to life than Earth does. We call these objects "superhabitable" and discuss in which contexts this term could be used, that is to say, which worlds tend to be more habitable than Earth. In an appendix, we show why the principle of mediocracy cannot be used to logically explain why Earth should be a particularly habitable planet or why other inhabited worlds should be Earth-like. Superhabitable worlds must be considered for future follow-up observations of signs of extraterrestrial life. Considering a range of physical effects, we conclude that they will tend to be slightly older and more massive than Earth and that their host stars will likely be K dwarfs. This makes Alpha Centauri B, which is a member of the closest stellar system to the Sun and is supposed to host an Earth-mass planet, an ideal target for searches for a superhabitable world.
Three essays on financial system stability. The first paper explores the stability of core-periphery interbank networks in a static simulation framework. The results are then compared to a meanfield approximation. While this proves accurate in early rounds of default, precision of this approximation suffers as the simulation evolves. The second essay contributes to the empirical literature on real-world economic and financial networks. We explore the topology of the Spanish bank-firm credi...
This book bridges the gap between general plasma physics lectures and the real world problems in MHD stability. In order to support the understanding of concepts and their implication, it refers to real world problems such as toroidal mode coupling or nonlinear evolution in a conceptual and phenomenological approach. Detailed mathematical treatment will involve classical linear stability analysis and an outline of more recent concepts such as the ballooning formalism. The book is based on lectures that the author has given to Master and PhD students in Fusion Plasma Physics. Due its strong lin
Population policies were discussed during a U.N. Conference on the Human Environment held in Stockholm in June 1972. Although it was acknowledged that people in developed countries have a much more detrimental impact on the environment due to their high levels of consumption, various positions were taken on the importance of family planning in developing countries. Both the Chinese delegate and Indira Ghandi of India remarked that one cannot blame overpopulation for ecological problems. Other speakers agreed that technology would solve ecological problems and that population growth rates would take care of themselves when development occurred. Other speakers, such as Dr. Paul Ehrlich believe that worldwide stabilization of population is necessary to maintain life-support systems of this planet. The majority of delegates to the Conference did not consider the reduction of population growth to be a priority, although it was recommended that national governments develop population policies, and that WHO give increased support to family planning activities. It was also recommended that adequate attention be given to the relationship between population and environment at the World Population Conference in 1974.
Description of Paratylenchus (Gracilacus straeleni (De Coninck, 1931 Oostenbrink, 1960 (Nematoda: Criconematoidea, Tylenchulidae from hazelnut in Turkey and its comparison with other world populations
Full Text Available Paratylenchus (Gracilacus straeleni (De Coninck, 1931 Oostenbrink, 1960 was detected for the first time in Turkey. Our studied population was found in the rhizosphere soil of hazelnut orchards in Ordu. Females and males were studied morphologically and morphometrically by light microscopy and molecularly by sequencing the D2-D3 of the 28S rDNA gene. We present here the morphological and molecular characterisation, phylogenetic analysis of examined population and comparison of variability of worldwide known populations of P. straeleni.
New world origins for haemoparasites infecting United Kingdom grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis), as revealed by phylogenetic analysis of bartonella infecting squirrel populations in England and the United States.
Bown, K. J.; Ellis, B. A.; Birtles, R. J.; Durden, L. A.; Lello, J.; Begon, M.; Bennett, M.
Phylogenetic analyses of bartonella have suggested divergence between bartonellae that infect mammals native to the Old and New Worlds. We characterized bartonella isolated from Eastern grey squirrels (Sciurius carolinensis) in the United States and from grey and red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in the United Kingdom by nucleotide sequence comparison (gltA and groEL). Isolates from grey squirrels in the United States and the United Kingdom were identical, and most similar to Bartonella vinsonii, a species associated with New World rodents. A single and novel bartonella genotype was obtained from all 12 red squirrel isolates. Although grey squirrels were first introduced into the United Kingdom over 125 years ago, they continue to be infected solely by the bartonella associated with grey squirrels native to the United States. These results illustrate that exotic species may be accompanied by the introduction and maintenance, over many generations, of their microparasites. PMID:12558350
New world origins for haemoparasites infecting United Kingdom grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis), as revealed by phylogenetic analysis of bartonella infecting squirrel populations in England and the United States.
Bown, K J; Ellis, B A; Birtles, R J; Durden, L A; Lello, J; Begon, M; Bennett, M
Phylogenetic analyses of bartonella have suggested divergence between bartonellae that infect mammals native to the Old and New Worlds. We characterized bartonella isolated from Eastern grey squirrels (Sciurius carolinensis) in the United States and from grey and red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in the United Kingdom by nucleotide sequence comparison (gltA and groEL). Isolates from grey squirrels in the United States and the United Kingdom were identical, and most similar to Bartonella vinsonii, a species associated with New World rodents. A single and novel bartonella genotype was obtained from all 12 red squirrel isolates. Although grey squirrels were first introduced into the United Kingdom over 125 years ago, they continue to be infected solely by the bartonella associated with grey squirrels native to the United States. These results illustrate that exotic species may be accompanied by the introduction and maintenance, over many generations, of their microparasites.
Background Alcohol use is an important factor in a population’s risk for disease and mortality. Alcohol has a long history of use in Africa, and changes in drinking behavior are underway in many African states. Women and older adults are two special populations that comprise sizable proportions of the general population and whose use of alcohol will have important consequences for public health in Africa. There is limited information about the drinking behavior of women and older adults, w...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — World Wind allows any user to zoom from satellite altitude into any place on Earth, leveraging high resolution LandSat imagery and SRTM elevation data to experience...
The aim of the Third World Network of Scientific Organizations (TWNSO), established last year with its headquarters in Trieste, Italy, is to promote the role of science and technology in developing countries. TWNSO, under the presidency of Abdus Salam, is an offshoot of the Third World Academy of Sciences, which has pushed the cause of international scientific collaboration since its establishment in 1983. (orig./HSI).
Czarra, Fred R.; Long, Cathryn J., Eds.
Activities help high school students become aware of the extent of world hunger and the place of population control in the fight against hunger. The materials offer the student background information and a variety of viewpoints. The aim of each activity is to increase the student's own informed decision making. (CS)
What happens when a hardened criminal on the run for his life gets mixed up with an all-girl symphony traveling between lesser-populated planets in a futile attempt to bring culture to their rowdy inhabitants? Well, to put it mildly, hijinks ensue. Read Stephen Marlowe's thoroughly entertaining World Beyond Pluto to find out the rest.
McHale, Magda Cordell; And Others
This book of charts documents the current situation of children in the less developed regions of the world. Data on population distribution by age and sex, urban growth, social and economic conditions, life expectancy, mortality, health and disease, nutrition, medical care, education, youth participation in the labor force of selected countries…
Buch, Helena; Vinding, T; Nielsen, N V
eligible persons, 946 (96.9%) could be examined. Information about best-corrected visual acuity (VA) was obtained from 944 cooperative persons (96.7%). METHODS: Data from the Copenhagen City Eye Study were used to assess the cause-specific prevalence of visual impairment as defined by the World Health...... Organization (WHO) (VA worse than 20/60-20/400 in the better eye) and the criteria used most commonly in the United States (VA worse than 20/40 but better than 20/200 in the better eye). Eligible subjects underwent an extensive ophthalmologic examination at The National University Hospital of Denmark. MAIN...
Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback
We explored the effects of elevated turbidity on stream-resident populations of coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii using a spatially explicit individual-based model. Turbidity regimes were contrasted by means of 15-year simulations in a third-order stream in northwestern California. The alternative regimes were based on multiple-year, continuous...
Superconductor stability is at the core of the design of any successful cable and magnet application. This chapter reviews the initial understanding of the stability mechanism, and reviews matters of importance for stability such as the nature and magnitude of the perturbation spectrum and the cooling mechanisms. Various stability strategies are studied, providing criteria that depend on the desired design and operating conditions.
Discusses the impact of world population growth leading to the establishment of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and to the declaration of 1974 as World Population Year. Previews some of the parameters and interconnecting interests to be considered during this year of intensive population study. (JR)
Patients With Diabetes Without Significant Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease Have the Same Risk of Myocardial Infarction as Patients Without Diabetes in a Real-World Population Receiving Appropriate Prophylactic Treatment
Olesen, Kevin K. W.; Egholm, Gro; Thim, Troels
was stratified according to the presence or absence of obstructive CAD and diabetes. End points were death, cardiac death, and MI. Unadjusted and adjusted rate ratios (RRs) were calculated by using patients without diabetes and without CAD as the reference group. RESULTS We included 93,866 patients of whom 12...... without CAD were more often treated with statins (75.3% vs. 46.0 and aspirin (65.7% vs. 52.7 than patients without diabetes and CAD. CONCLUSIONS In a real-world population, patients with diabetes with high rates of statin and aspirin treatment had the same risk of cardiovascular events as patientswithout...
Full Text Available Metapopulation dynamics are jointly regulated by local and spatial factors. These factors may affect the dynamics of local populations and of the entire metapopulation differently. Previous studies have shown that dispersal can stabilize local populations; however, as dispersal also tends to increase spatial synchrony, its net effect on metapopulation stability has been controversial. Here we present a simple metapopulation model to study how dispersal, in interaction with other spatial and local processes, affects the temporal variability of metapopulations in a stochastic environment. Our results show that in homogeneous metapopulations, the local stabilizing and spatial synchronizing effects of dispersal cancel each other out, such that dispersal has no effect on metapopulation variability. This result is robust to moderate heterogeneities in local and spatial parameters. When local and spatial dynamics exhibit high heterogeneities, however, dispersal can either stabilize or destabilize metapopulation dynamics through various mechanisms. Our findings have important theoretical and practical implications. We show that dispersal functions as a form of spatial intraspecific mutualism in metapopulation dynamics and that its effect on metapopulation stability is opposite to that of interspecific competition on local community stability. Our results also suggest that conservation corridors should be designed with appreciation of spatial heterogeneities in population dynamics in order to maximize metapopulation stability.
Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Rosellini, Anthony J; Lindberg, Marrena; Petukhova, Maria; Kessler, Ronald C; Bruffaerts, Ronny
In an effort to support mental health policy planning efforts in conjunction with the reconstruction of Iraq, a nationally representative face-to-face household survey was carried out that assessed the prevalence and correlates of common mental disorders in the Iraqi population. A total of 4332 adult (ages 18+) respondents were interviewed (95.2% response rate). The current report presents data on the role impairments (number of days out-of-role in the past 30 days) associated with the nine mental disorders assessed in the survey in comparison to the impairments associated with ten chronic physical disorders also assessed in the survey. These disorders were all assessed with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Days out-of-role were assessed with the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule. Both individual-level and societal-level effects of the disorders were estimated. Strongest individual-level predictors were bipolar and drug abuse disorders (176-195 days per year), with mental disorders making up five of the seven strongest predictors. The strongest population-level predictors were headache/migraine and arthritis (22-12% population proportions). Overall population proportions were 57% of days out-of-role due to the chronic physical disorders considered here and 18% for the mental disorders. Despite commonly-occurring mental disorders accounting for more individual-level days out-of-role than the physical disorders, mental disorders are much less likely to receive treatment in Iraq (e.g., due to stigma). These results highlight the need for culturally tailored mental health prevention and treatment programs in Iraq. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Representativeness of the dabigatran, apixaban and rivaroxaban clinical trial populations to real-world atrial fibrillation patients in the United Kingdom: a cross-sectional analysis using the General Practice Research Database.
Lee, Sally; Monz, Brigitta U; Clemens, Andreas; Brueckmann, Martina; Lip, Gregory Y H
Three oral anticoagulants have reported study results for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) (dabigatran etexilate, rivaroxaban and apixaban); all demonstrated superiority or non-inferiority compared with warfarin (RE-LY, ARISTOTLE and ROCKET-AF). This study aimed to assess the representativeness for the real-world AF population, particularly the population eligible for anticoagulants. A cross-sectional database analysis. Dataset derived from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURE: The proportion of real-world patients with AF who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria for RE-LY, ARISTOTLE and ROCKET-AF were compared. The results were then stratified by risk of stroke using CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. 83 898 patients with AF were identified in the GPRD. For the population at intermediate or high risk of stroke and eligible for anticoagulant treatment (CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc ≥1; n=78 783 (94%)), the proportion eligible for inclusion into RE-LY (dabigatran etexilate) was 68% (95% CI 67.7% to 68.3%; n=53 640), compared with 65% (95% CI 64.7% to 65.3%; n=51 163) eligible for ARISTOTLE (apixaban) and 51% (95% CI 50.7% to 51.4%; n=39 892) eligible for ROCKET-AF (rivaroxaban). Using the CHADS(2) method of risk stratification, for the population at intermediate or high risk of stroke and eligible for anticoagulation treatment (CHADS(2) ≥1; n=71 493 (85%)), the proportion eligible for inclusion into RE-LY was 74% (95% CI 73.7% to 74.3%; n=52 783), compared with 72% (95% CI 71.7% to 72.3%; n=51 415) for ARISTOTLE and 56% (95% CI 55.6% to 56.4%; n=39 892) for ROCKET-AF. Patients enrolled within RE-LY and ARISTOTLE were more reflective of the 'real-world' AF population in the UK, in contrast with patients enrolled within ROCKET-AF who were a more narrowly defined group of patients at higher risk of stroke. Differences between trials should be taken into account when considering the applicability of findings
The thesis "Spinning Worlds" is about the characterisation of two types of gas-giant exoplanets: Hot Jupiters, with orbital periods of fewer than five days, and young, wide-orbit gas giants, with orbital periods as long as thousands of years. The thesis is based on near-infrared observations of 1
Teitelbaum, M S
Commentary is provided on the challenges faced by the new Clinton administration in formulating US key foreign policy initiatives. There is an urgent need to provide balanced and effective foreign aid for reducing high fertility rates in the developing world. There is also a need to effectively monitor the large migrations of populations. Over the past 10 years, the US has not been actively practicing world leadership on population issues. 3 changes in 1993 give impetus to redirect foreign policy: 1) the waning influence of fringe groups who controlled population issues; 2) the campaign promises to restore UN population stabilization programs; and 3) the evidence from the Persian Gulf and Yugoslavia that demographic issues require planning and assessment. Global population growth has been concentrated in the past 40 years, in part due to mortality declines and sustained high fertility. Of significance is the rapidness and momentum of growth. A high percentage are and will be children. Urban population is also growing rapidly in high fertility countries. Countries with high fertility and significant rural-to-urban migration also have large international migrations. The evolution of policy since the 1950s, which for the most part ignored population issues, is discussed. The American debates have been charged with emotionalism: about human sexuality, legitimacy of voluntary fertility control, the role and status of women and men, abortion, intergenerational transfer of obligations, ethnic solidarity and the sovereignty of national borders, and the proper roles of the state versus the marketplace. There have been over 200 years of ideological argument over population issues. The Malthusian argument was that large population size did not increase prosperity, and growth should be limited. The Marxist-Leninist position was that contraception was Malthusian, abortion was a woman's right, and population growth was neutral. By late 1970 the Chinese Maoists adopted the moral
It has been estimated that by the year 2006, the proportion of the world's population residing in cities will for the 1st time exceed 50%. The entire urban population will be living on 1% of the earth's surface. Rapid growth of cities is largely limited to developing countries, where about 9/10 of urban growth is expected to occur in coming decades. Urban growth in developing countries is due to high fertility as well as inmigration of poor peasants seeking a better life. The current growth rate of Third World cities is 3.6% annually, which signifies doubling of the population in 20 years. Paris required over a century to grow from 547,000 to 3 million, but Lagos grew from 700,000 to 5.6 million in 20 years and Cairo grew by 6.5 million in 34 years. Immoderate population growth places a great strain on cities attempting to provide basic services. Only a few authoritarian governments have succeeded in limiting immigration to their metropolitan areas. Rapidly growing cities have become symbols not only of poverty and social deterioration, but of ecological destruction, contamination, and lack of health. Air pollution, waste management, and the water supply are 3 of the most serious problems of hygiene and sanitation in the world's cities. Air pollution is caused by various factors including car exhausts and coal burning. According to World Health Organization data, less than 60% of Third World housing has access to an adequate sanitary system. 90% of sewage is not treated before elimination. And millions of persons with no potable water supply are obliged to consume contaminated water or to use their scarce resources to buy water. Many cities lose up to 60% of their scarce water supplies through leaking pipes. If these pipes were repaired, and the loss amounted to the 12% typical of the US and Great Britain, this single measure would double the volume of potable water available. The lack of social balance is at the root of urban problems in the Third World. 600
Sergej I. Belov
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the issue of crimes against civilians committed by soldiers of the Wehrmacht and Waffen-SS in Germany in 1945. Disclosed the causes, background and nature of illegal actions by officers and soldiers against civilians. Discussed topic offenses by military command structures and the NSDAP. Studied the issue of representativeness eyewitness illegal actions of German soldiers. Introduced into science not previously involved researchers archival materials – reports, information bulletins and reports of political offices of the 1st Ukrainian and 2nd Belorussian Fronts on the mood of the population of the occupied territories and enemy troops for February – June 1945.
Baldwin, G B
Bernard Berelson's book, "Population Policy in Developed Countries," provides a report on population policy in the developed world as of the early 1970s, covering countries with 20 million population or over, and 11 countries of special interest. There are chapters by national experts from 25 countries. A developed country is defined as industrialized, healthier, better educated, better off, more modernized, and distinguished by low fertility. This does not mean that population growth in these countries has yet fallen to zero or lower, but in 7 or 8 countries, population is expected to stabilize in a decade or so unless recent fertility trends reverse themselves or are offset by immigration. The conclusions drawn from the 25 country reports are summarized, and highlights of the demographic situation and policies in 12 of the countries are presented, Berelson is cautious in predicting the future shape of population policy in the developed world. There have been too many policy changes in the past to be confident of the future. He feels, however, that more and more people are likely to accept the goal of replacement, up to replacement in some countries and down to replacement in others.
Full Text Available n 1974, the United Nations organized the first inter-governmental conference dedicated especially to problems of population and demography. Apart from technical issue involved, the conference represented yet another manifestation of disagreements between the industrialized countries, on one hand, and the underdeveloped or developing countries. The first group argued that overpopulation was a major risk as the Earth did not have sufficient resources to feed the ever-growing population and birth control measures were required. The latter group disagreed with this perspective and claimed that population issues could be solved only by the development of the poor countries. Development, argued this group of countries, had to be insured by a restructuring of the international economy and more financial assistance from the developed countries. This paper examines Romania’s position in this context, analyzing how the regime in Bucharest tried to balance between foreign constraints such as its obligation as host country to remain neutral, its effort to build bridges to the underdeveloped or developing countries thus trying to tacitly evade it international status of Warsaw Pact member and gain acceptance in the Group of 77. The World Population Conference in 1974 is a conclusive case study for Romania’s foreign policy after the Soviet-American détente of 1972.
Sedláček, Jan; Knutti, Reto
Fresh water is a critical resource on Earth, yet projections of changes in the water cycle resulting from anthropogenic warming are challenging. It is important to not only know the best estimate of change, but also how robust these projections are, where changes occur, which variables will change, and how many people are affected by it. Here we synthesize the changes in the water cycle, based on results of the latest climate model intercomparison (CMIP5). Several variables of the water cycle, such as evaporation and relative humidity, show robust changes over more than 50% of the land area already with an anthropogenic global warming of 1 °C. A warming of 2 °C shows more than half of the world’s population to be directly affected by robust local changes in the water cycle, and everybody experiences a robust change in at least one variable of the water cycle. While the physical changes are widespread, the affected people are concentrated in a few hot-spots mainly in Asia and Central Africa. The occurrence of these hot-spots is driven by population density, as well as by the early emergence of the anthropogenic signal from variability in these areas. Large uncertainties remain in projections of soil moisture and runoff changes. (paper)
Speller, Camilla F.; Burley, David V.; Woodward, Robyn P.; Yang, Dongya Y.
The Columbian Exchange resulted in a widespread movement of humans, plants and animals between the Old and New Worlds. The late 15th to early 16th century transfer of cattle from the Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands to the Caribbean laid the foundation for the development of American creole cattle (Bos taurus) breeds. Genetic analyses of modern cattle from the Americas reveal a mixed ancestry of European, African and Indian origins. Recent debate in the genetic literature centers on the ‘African’ haplogroup T1 and its subhaplogroups, alternatively tying their origins to the initial Spanish herds, and/or from subsequent movements of taurine cattle through the African slave trade. We examine this problem through ancient DNA analysis of early 16th century cattle bone from Sevilla la Nueva, the first Spanish colony in Jamaica. In spite of poor DNA preservation, both T3 and T1 haplogroups were identified in the cattle remains, confirming the presence of T1 in the earliest Spanish herds. The absence, however, of “African-derived American” haplotypes (AA/T1c1a1) in the Sevilla la Nueva sample, leaves open the origins of this sub-haplogroup in contemporary Caribbean cattle. PMID:23894505
Saltychev, Mikhail; Bärlund, Esa; Mattie, Ryan; McCormick, Zachary; Paltamaa, Jaana; Laimi, Katri
To assess the validity of the Finnish translation of the 12-item World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0). Cross-sectional cohort survey study. Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine outpatient university clinic. The 501 consecutive patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain. Exploratory factor analysis and a graded response model using item response theory analysis were used to assess the constructs and discrimination ability of WHODAS 2.0. The exploratory factor analysis revealed two retained factors with eigenvalues 5.15 and 1.04. Discrimination ability of all items was high or perfect, varying from 1.2 to 2.5. The difficulty levels of seven out of 12 items were shifted towards the elevated disability level. As a result, the entire test characteristic curve showed a shift towards higher levels of disability, placing it at the point of disability level of +1 (where 0 indicates the average level of disability within the sample). The present data indicate that the Finnish translation of the 12-item WHODAS 2.0 is a valid instrument for measuring restrictions of activity and participation among patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain.
Hosseinpoor, Ahmad Reza; Bergen, Nicole; Kostanjsek, Nenad; Kowal, Paul; Officer, Alana; Chatterji, Somnath
Our objective was to quantify disability prevalence among older adults of low- and middle-income countries, and measure socio-demographic distribution of disability. World Health Survey data included 53,447 adults aged 50 or older from 43 low- and middle-income countries. Disability was a binary classification, based on a composite score derived from self-reported functional difficulties. Socio-demographic variables included sex, age, marital status, area of residence, education level, and household economic status. A multivariate Poisson regression model with robust variance was used to assess associations between disability and socio-demographic variables. Overall, 33.3 % (95 % CI 32.2-34.4 %) of older adults reported disability. Disability was 1.5 times more common in females, and was positively associated with increasing age. Divorced/separated/widowed respondents reported higher disability rates in all but one study country, and education and wealth levels were inversely associated with disability rates. Urban residence tended to be advantageous over rural. Country-level datasets showed disparate patterns. Effective approaches aimed at disability prevention and improved disability management are warranted, including the inclusion of equity considerations in monitoring and evaluation activities.
Miyazaki, Tadashi; Ruparelia, Neil; Kawamoto, Hiroyoshi; Figini, Filippo; Latib, Azeem; Colombo, Antonio
Our aim was to investigate one-year outcomes in patients treated with bioresorbable scaffolds (BRS) for "off-label" versus currently "established" indications. Consecutive patients treated with BRS between May 2012 and September 2014 in two centres were retrospectively recruited. Patients who met inclusion criteria as defined by the ABSORB III study were allocated to the established indication group (ESTG; 21 patients with 35 lesions) and the remaining patients to the off-label group (OFLG; 168 patients with 225 lesions). Target vessel failure (TVF) and ischaemia-driven target lesion revascularisation (id-TLR) at one year were evaluated in both groups. Patients in the OFLG had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus and longer lesion length. Predilatation, post-dilatation and intracoronary imaging were conducted in the majority of patients. At one-year follow-up, TVF (0% vs. 7.8%, p=0.32) and id-TLR (0% vs. 4.5%, p=0.31) occurred only in the OFLG with no adverse events in the ESTG. Definite stent thrombosis occurred in two OFLG patients (1.3%). In a real-world setting, the majority (88.9%) of patients were treated with BRS for off-label indications. Off-label use of BRS appears to be associated with an acceptable occurrence of outcomes considering the greater complexity of this patient group.
Checa, Nicolas; Maguire, John; Barney, Jonathan
On January 1, 1995, representatives from 76 countries signed the World Trade Organization charter, which for years had been part of a temporary trade agreement. The WTO's emergence as a fully empowered supranational body seemed to reflect the triumph of what the first President Bush had described as the "new world order." That order was based on two assumptions: that a healthy economy and a sound financial system make for political stability, and that countries in business together do not fight each other. The number one priority of U.S. foreign policy was thus to encourage the former Communist countries of Europe and the developing nations in Latin America, Asia, and Africa to adopt business-friendly policies. Private capital would flow from the developed world into these countries, creating economic growth. It sounded too good to be true, and so it proved. The new world order of Bush père and his successor, Bill Clinton, has been replaced by the new world disorder of Bush fils. Under the second Bush's administration, the economic and political rationale-behind the Washington consensus of the 1990s has unraveled, forcing a radical change in our perceptions of which countries are safe for business. Negotiating this new environment will require companies to more rigorously evaluate political events and more carefully assess the links between political, economic, and financial risk factors. They'll need to be more selective about which markets to enter, and they'll need to think differently about how to position themselves in those markets. The geopolitical events of the past year, the Bush administration's global war on terror, as well as ongoing convulsions in traditional political and economic relationships must be understood and managed by corporate leaders worldwide. With careful analysis, business leaders can increase their companies' visibility and better respond to the uncertainties of the new world disorder.
Zehdi-Azouzi, Salwa; Cherif, Emira; Moussouni, Souhila; Gros-Balthazard, Muriel; Abbas Naqvi, Summar; Ludeña, Bertha; Castillo, Karina; Chabrillange, Nathalie; Bouguedoura, Nadia; Bennaceur, Malika; Si-Dehbi, Farida; Abdoulkader, Sabira; Daher, Abdourahman; Terral, Jean-Frederic; Santoni, Sylvain; Ballardini, Marco; Mercuri, Antonio; Ben Salah, Mohamed; Kadri, Karim; Othmani, Ahmed; Littardi, Claudio; Salhi-Hannachi, Amel; Pintaud, Jean-Christophe; Aberlenc-Bertossi, Frédérique
Date palms (Phoenix dactylifera, Arecaceae) are of great economic and ecological value to the oasis agriculture of arid and semi-arid areas. However, despite the availability of a large date palm germplasm spreading from the Atlantic shores to Southern Asia, improvement of the species is being hampered by a lack of information on global genetic diversity and population structure. In order to contribute to the varietal improvement of date palms and to provide new insights on the influence of geographic origins and human activity on the genetic structure of the date palm, this study analysed the diversity of the species. Genetic diversity levels and population genetic structure were investigated through the genotyping of a collection of 295 date palm accessions ranging from Mauritania to Pakistan using a set of 18 simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers and a plastid minisatellite. Using a Bayesian clustering approach, the date palm genotypes can be structured into two different gene pools: the first, termed the Eastern pool, consists of accessions from Asia and Djibouti, whilst the second, termed the Western pool, consists of accessions from Africa. These results confirm the existence of two ancient gene pools that have contributed to the current date palm diversity. The presence of admixed genotypes is also noted, which points at gene flows between eastern and western origins, mostly from east to west, following a human-mediated diffusion of the species. This study assesses the distribution and level of genetic diversity of accessible date palm resources, provides new insights on the geographic origins and genetic history of the cultivated component of this species, and confirms the existence of at least two domestication origins. Furthermore, the strong genetic structure clearly established here is a prerequisite for any breeding programme exploiting the effective polymorphism related to each gene pool. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on
Zhao, Ying Jiao; Teng, Monica; Khoo, Ai Leng; Ananthakrishna, Rajiv; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Lim, Boon Peng; Loh, Joshua P; Chan, Mark Y
The safety and efficacy of BP-DES compared to second-generation DP-DES remain unclear in the real-world setting. We compared the clinical outcomes of biodegradable polymer drug-eluting stents (BP-DES) with second-generation durable polymer drug-eluting stents (DP-DES) in an all-comer percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) registry. The study included a cohort of 1065 patients treated with either BP-DES or DP-DES from January 2009 through October 2015. Propensity score matching was performed to account for potential confounders and produced 497 matched pairs of patients. The primary endpoint was target lesion failure (TLF) at one-year follow-up. The rates of TLF were comparable between BP-DES and DP-DES (8.7% vs 9.1%, P = .823) at 1 year. The rates of stent thrombosis at 30 days (0.4% vs 0.4%, P = 1.00) and 1 year (0.8% vs 0.8%, P = 1.00) did not differ between BP-DES and DP-DES. There were no significant differences in other clinical outcomes including target vessel failure (8.9% vs 9.5%, P = .741), in-stent restenosis (1.8% vs 1.0%, P = .282), and cardiac death (6.4% vs 7.4%, P = .533) at 1 year. Multivariate cox regression analysis showed that the risk of TLF at one-year did not differ significantly between BP-DES and DP-DES (hazard ratio 0.94, P = .763). Efficacy and safety of BP-DES were not better than DP-DES at one-year follow-up. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Arun Gangadhar Ghorpade
Full Text Available Background World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH charts have been employed to predict the risk of cardiovascular outcome in heterogeneous settings. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD risk factors and to estimate the cardiovascular risk among adults aged >40 years, utilizing the risk charts alone, and by the addition of other parameters. Methods A cross-sectional study was performed in two of the villages availing health services of a medical college. Overall 570 subjects completed the assessment. The desired information was obtained using a pretested questionnaire and participants were also subjected to anthropometric measurements and laboratory investigations. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for the South-East Asian region was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the study participants. Results The study covered 570 adults aged above 40 years. The mean age of the subjects was 54.2 (±11.1 years and 53.3% subjects were women. Seventeen percent of the participants had moderate to high risk for the occurrence of cardiovascular events by using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. In addition, CVD risk factors like smoking, alcohol, low High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol were found in 32%, 53%, 56.3%, and 61.5% study participants, respectively. Conclusion Categorizing people as low (20% risk is one of the crucial steps to mitigate the magnitude of cardiovascular fatal/non-fatal outcome. This cross-sectional study indicates that there is a high burden of CVD risk in the rural Pondicherry as assessed by WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Use of WHO/ISH charts is easy and inexpensive screening tool in predicting the cardiovascular event.
Argument continues in the world press as to the urgency of the food problem. Some economists in equating world food production statistics with population figures have convinced themselves there is more than enough food per capita and, accordingly, no problem. Looking in greater depth than these gross averages, however, we find that there is indeed a prospective problem, and of such a nature and magnitude as to tax all of mankind's talents and resources in its resolution. It is true that certain of the developed countries of the world in the last generation acquired agricultural production capabilities that notably exceeded the resident population's capacity to consume. 'Surplus' in these areas became an ugly word during this period of a generally favorable weather cycle, and restrictions on the amount of and that could be devoted to graincrops were imposed to curb this tremendous capacity. A fickle Mother Nature, however, has turned things around during the early 1970's by one or another of her many vacillations in the form of local drought, excess moisture, shortened growing season, or other means, in some of the major producing areas. Inconsequence, the food grain surpluses are now gone and the world is looking at a three to four week reserve at any given moment. The cost of food products available from exporting countries has doubled and trebled in price during the past two years. The potential for famine exceeds in magnitude anything the world has ever known. It is against this background that the World Food Conference will be held in Rome during November of this year. (author)
Stocking impact and temporal stability of genetic composition in a brackish northern pike population ( Esox lucius L.), assessed using microsatellite DNA analysis of historical and contemporary samples
Larsen, Peter Foged; Hansen, Michael Møller; Eg Nielsen, Einar
During the last decade, brackish northern pike populations in Denmark have been subject to stocking programmes, using nonindigenous pike from freshwater lakes, in order to compensate for drastic population declines. The present study was designed to investigate the genetic impact of stocking fres...
For the past 4 decades, the world's population growth has threatened to outstrip the planet's ability to sustain it. According to recent projections, an end to the growth of world population is finally in sight. Dr. Joseph van Arendonk, deputy executive director of the United Nations Population Fund, told an international press conference that population growth is likely to begin falling before the mid-21st century. Currently, some 87 million couples worldwide wish to use contraception but have no access to services. Van Arendonk argued that 4% of overseas aid set aside for population programs would satisfy this unmet need. He also predicted that the average family size in developing countries would stabilize at 2.1 children within the next 55 years if these needs were met. This would still mean a global population of 10 billion in the year 2050, rising to a plateau of 11.6 billion within the following century. In developing countries fertility rates fell from 6.1 to 3.3 children per woman between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s, while use of contraception increased from 10% to 50%. However, contraceptive users in the developing world must increase from 446 million in 1994 to 603 million in 2005 to keep population growth within such projected limits. The costs of providing the contraception will increase from US $528 million to US $752 million. The contraceptive needs of 603 million users in 2005 will require: 196 million sterilizations, 436 million IUD insertions, 898 million injectables, 12.3 billion cycles of OCs, and 55 billion condoms. To this end, IPPF plans greater accessibility of services, a wider range of effective methods, and the involvement of the male partner.
There are more than a billion Muslims in the world today - over a fifth of the world's total population - spread over many more than the 57 member states of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in which Islam is the official religion. These include some of the world's wealthiest nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as some of the poorest, like Somalia and Sudan. The economies of some of these countries - such as the Gulf States, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Malaysia and Pakistan - have been growing steadily for a number of years, and yet, in comparison with the West, the Islamic world still appears somewhat disengaged from modern science.
Ullman, Vardit Zerem; Levine, Stephen Z; Reichenberg, Abraham; Rabinowitz, Jonathan
Population-based studies of cognitive and behavioral premorbid functioning in psychotic disorders generally focus on late adolescence in schizophrenia and most are based on IQ test scores. To examine differences in school grades at the ages of 13-14 between persons hospitalized during adulthood for schizophrenia or affective disorders and their peers. Ten years of school report data were ascertained on 8th grade children (n=21,448) in the city of Jerusalem (1978-1988). During adulthood cases with schizophrenia (n=194, 0.9%) or an affective disorder (n=41, 0.19%) were identified based on psychiatric hospitalizations in the National Psychiatric Hospitalization Case Registry of the State of Israel. School assessments of academic performance, nonacademic topics, and teacher ratings of classroom behavior were compared between peers without illness and cases, and their association with illness was examined. Children subsequently hospitalized with schizophrenia had significantly lower nonacademic performance (ES=.20, p=.007) and teacher ratings on behavior (ES=.18, p=.02) than controls and numerically lower teacher behavior ratings than people subsequently hospitalized for an affective disorder (ES=.25, p=.19). Cox regression modeling showed that poorer nonacademic and lower behavioral ratings were significantly associated with earlier age of onset of schizophrenia. Premorbid behavior and nonacademic deficits are evident in early adolescence among persons subsequently hospitalized with schizophrenia and different from those hospitalized with affective disorders. This suggests that these ratings may have diagnostic specificity between schizophrenia and affective disorders. Copyright Â© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Siemens, FC; Boon, ME; Kuypers, JC; Kok, LP
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the outcome of population based cervical screening at 5-year intervals. STUDY DESIGN: Results from the west region of the Netherlands (population 2 million) were used. The 1995-2000 round was compared with the first 2 years of the second (2001-2002). All results were
Barrett, Jeffrey A.
Hugh Everett III presented pure wave mechanics, sometimes referred to as the many-worlds interpretation, as a solution to the quantum measurement problem. While pure wave mechanics is an objectively deterministic physical theory with no probabilities, Everett sought to show how the theory might be understood as making the standard quantum statistical predictions as appearances to observers who were themselves described by the theory. We will consider his argument and how it depends on a particular notion of branch typicality. We will also consider responses to Everett and the relationship between typicality and probability. The suggestion will be that pure wave mechanics requires a number of significant auxiliary assumptions in order to make anything like the standard quantum predictions.
Roy, Kenneth I.; Kennedy, Robert G., III; Fields, David E.
The traditional concept of terraforming assumes ready availability of candidate planets with acceptable qualities: orbiting a star in its "Goldilocks zone", liquid water, enough mass, years longer than days, magnetic field, etc. But even stipulating affordable interstellar travel, we still might never find a good candidate elsewhere. Whatever we found likely would require centuries of heavy terraforming, just as Mars or Venus would here. Our increasing appreciation of the ubiquity of life suggests that any terra nova would already possess it. We would then face the dilemma of introducing alien life forms (us, our microbes) into another living world. Instead, we propose a novel method to create habitable environments for humanity by enclosing airless, sterile, otherwise useless planets, moons, and even large asteroids within engineered shells, which avoids the conundrum. These shells are subject to two opposing internal stresses: compression due to the primary's gravity, and tension from atmospheric pressure contained inside. By careful design, these two cancel each other resulting in zero net shell stress. Beneath the shell an Earth-like environment could be created similar in almost all respects to that of Home, except for gravity, regardless of the distance to the sun or other star. Englobing a small planet, moon, or even a dwarf planet like Ceres, would require astronomical amounts of material (quadrillions of tons) and energy, plus a great deal of time. It would be a quantum leap in difficulty over building Dyson Dots or industrializing our solar system, perhaps comparable to a mission across interstellar space with a living crew within their lifetime. But when accomplished, these constructs would be complete (albeit small) worlds, not merely large habitats. They could be stable across historic timescales, possibly geologic. Each would contain a full, self-sustaining ecology, which might evolve in curious directions over time. This has interesting implications
Goychayev, Rustam [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carr, Geoffrey A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Weise, Rachel A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Donnelly, David A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Clements, Samuel L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Benz, Jacob M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rodda, Kabrena E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bartholomew, Rachel A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McKinnon, Archibald D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Andres, Richard B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.
Giseli do Prado Siqueira
Full Text Available Created in 2007 , the project extension Itinerant Workshops : recreating the world ( s of the Catholic University of Minas Gerais , Campus Poços de Caldas is an inseparable experience in research of teaching and extension. With this title " recreating worlds " seek to express the experience that has been possible for us to live over the years of execution of this project . Our experience is theoretically referenced by understanding that German thinkers Meister Eckhart (1260-1327 and Martin Heidegger (1889-1976 shows us about what is the man in they on existence. Such an understanding is expressed in the phenomenon of serenity ( Gelassenheit , let it be understood as simply what we are . Our research on this phenomenon Gelassenheit (Serenity , guide the relationships we establish with the external community , where we understand that the existence of man in his essential condition , is a shared existence. The other is imposed on us and we never fail to be sympathetic to their fears and anxieties , because these same fears and anxieties are also ours possibilities . This relationship of consideration makes us all ( teachers , students , community solidarity in our existential angst before the unexpected, the unknown . It is when we can see ourselves through another , in what we truly are and can be.
Salas, R M
The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable
Cuveliers, E.L.; Volckaert, F.A.M.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.; Larmuseau, M.H.D.; Maes, G.E.
Heavy fishing and other anthropogenic influences can have profound impact on a species’ resilience to harvesting. Besides the decrease in the census and effective population size, strong declines in mature adults and recruiting individuals may lead to almost irreversible genetic changes in
Núñez-Toldrà, Raquel; Martínez-Sarrà, Ester; Gil-Recio, Carlos; Carrasco, Miguel Ángel; Al Madhoun, Ashraf; Montori, Sheyla; Atari, Maher
Biomaterials are widely used to regenerate or substitute bone tissue. In order to evaluate their potential use for clinical applications, these need to be tested and evaluated in vitro with cell culture models. Frequently, immortalized osteoblastic cell lines are used in these studies. However, their uncontrolled proliferation rate, phenotypic changes or aberrations in mitotic processes limits their use in long-term investigations. Recently, we described a new pluripotent-like subpopulation of dental pulp stem cells derived from the third molars (DPPSC) that shows genetic stability and shares some pluripotent characteristics with embryonic stem cells. In this study we aim to describe the use of DPPSC to test biomaterials, since we believe that the biomaterial cues will be more critical in order to enhance the differentiation of pluripotent stem cells. The capacity of DPPSC to differentiate into osteogenic lineage was compared with human sarcoma osteogenic cell line (SAOS-2). Collagen and titanium were used to assess the cell behavior in commonly used biomaterials. The analyses were performed by flow cytometry, alkaline phosphatase and mineralization stains, RT-PCR, immunohistochemistry, scanning electron microscopy, Western blot and enzymatic activity. Moreover, the genetic stability was evaluated and compared before and after differentiation by short-comparative genomic hybridization (sCGH). DPPSC showed excellent differentiation into osteogenic lineages expressing bone-related markers similar to SAOS-2. When cells were cultured on biomaterials, DPPSC showed higher initial adhesion levels. Nevertheless, their osteogenic differentiation showed similar trend among both cell types. Interestingly, only DPPSC maintained a normal chromosomal dosage before and after differentiation on 2D monolayer and on biomaterials. Taken together, these results promote the use of DPPSC as a new pluripotent-like cell model to evaluate the biocompatibility and the differentiation
Sørensen, Tom; Sørensen, Andreas
Items measuring attitudes toward the mentally ill can be limited in relevance to a particular period or place. The main objective of the study was to provide evidence toward a questionnaire that was short and psychometrically stable over time and geography, and that could be used within comprehensive mental health surveys of general populations. Four rural samples, Lofoten 1983 (n = 470), 1990 (n = 947), 2000 (n = 864), and Valdres 2010 (n = 772), and two urban samples, Oslo 1990 (n = 948) an...
Mitchell, Harold P.
Six problems faced by the developed and developing worlds are discussed and possible solutions are considered. Given its relatively stable populations and adequate food supplies, the developed world must be prepared both to pay for and to encourage efforts to control pollution of the environment. Its comparative over-consumption of energy must be countered by the development of new energy sources, bearing in mind the risks involved in the use of nuclear energy. Also, great efforts must be mad...
It is 127 years since the Scramble for Africa divided up the continent, imposing borders that have led to conflict rather than peace and stability. It is 100 years since the African National Congress (ANC) was founded as the first African liberation movement with pan-African roots. It is nearly 50...... years since the Organization of African Unity (OAU) was founded in May 1963 and ten years since the African Union (AU) was born with a vision that seeks 'the actualisation of human dignity, development and prosperity for the entire African people ... anchored on a vision of an integrated, prosperous...... diaspora in order for the unity and renaissance dreamed of to become a reality. The chapters in Africana World: From Fragmentation to Unity and Renaissance address colonial and postcolonial African realities with a view to present a holistic and transcontinental appraisal of questions, issues...
Endrikat, J; Gerlinger, C; Cronin, M; Ruebig, A; Schmidt, W; Düsterberg, B
Evaluation of the impact of a monophasic gestodene-based oral contraceptive on blood pressure in a population that was normotensive at baseline. Data on blood pressure were retrospectively analyzed from four large prospective clinical phase III trials with an oral contraceptive containing 20 microg ethinylestradiol and 75 microg gestodene. A total of 1342 young fertile women were evaluated after 12 treatment cycles. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure did not change during treatment. Approximately 89% of women were normotensive at baseline and 93% at the end of the treatment period. Only a few women (gestodene has a negligible effect on blood pressure in users who were normotensive before treatment began.
Udry, J R; Bauman, K E; Chase, C L
Abstract Eventually, world population must cease to grow. In many countries attempts are made to decrease population growth by providing family planning services to all who want to prevent pregnancies. In this paper we use the concept 'perfect contraceptive population',(1) - a population in which no unwanted births occur - to derive estimates of the maximum contribution that prevention of unwanted births might make toward attaining a zero rate of natural increase in population.
Badii, M. H.
Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available
Joseph F Hayes
Full Text Available There is limited, poorly characterized information about adverse events occurring during maintenance treatment of bipolar disorder. We aimed to determine adverse event rates during treatment with lithium, valproate, olanzapine, and quetiapine.We conducted a propensity score adjusted cohort study using nationally representative United Kingdom electronic health records from January 1, 1995, until December 31, 2013. We included patients who had a diagnosis of bipolar disorder and were prescribed lithium (n = 2148, valproate (n = 1670, olanzapine (n = 1477, or quetiapine (n = 1376 as maintenance mood stabilizer treatment. Adverse outcomes were chronic kidney disease, thyroid disease, hypercalcemia, weight gain, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and hepatotoxicity. The propensity score included important demographic, physical health, and mental health predictors of drug treatment allocation. The median duration of drug treatment was 1.48 y (interquartile range 0.64-3.43. Compared to patients prescribed lithium, those taking valproate, olanzapine, and quetiapine had reduced rates of chronic kidney disease stage 3 or more severe, following adjustment for propensity score, age, and calendar year, and accounting for clustering by primary care practice (valproate hazard ratio [HR] 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45-0.69; p < 0.001, olanzapine HR 0.57; 95% CI 0.45-0.71; p < 0.001, quetiapine HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.47-0.80; p < 0.001. Hypothyroidism was reduced in those taking valproate (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.40-0.89; p = 0.012 and olanzapine (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.29-0.77; p = 0.003, compared to those taking lithium. Rates of new onset hyperthyroidism (valproate HR 0.24; 95% CI 0.09-0.61; p = 0.003, olanzapine HR 0.31; 95% CI 0.13-0.73; p = 0.007 and hypercalcemia (valproate HR 0.25; 95% CI 0.10-0.60; p = 0.002, olanzapine HR 0.32; 95% CI 0.14-0.76; p = 0.008, quetiapine HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.07-0.73; p = 0.013 were also reduced relative
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: - to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; -to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and - to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994) and the Czech Republic (21st December 1995). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). (author)
Relationship between Serum Uric Acid and Vascular Function and Structure Markers and Gender Difference in a Real-World Population of China-From Beijing Vascular Disease Patients Evaluation Study (BEST) Study.
Liu, Huan; Liu, Jinbo; Zhao, Hongwei; Zhou, Yingyan; Li, Lihong; Wang, Hongyu
The study was done to establish the relationship between serum uric acid (UA) and vascular function and structure parameters including carotid femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV), carotid radial pulse wave velocity (CR-PWV), cardio ankle vascular index (CAVI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), and the gender difference in a real-world population from China. A total of 979 subjects were enrolled (aged 60.86±11.03 years, male 416 and female 563). Value of UA was divided by 100 (UA/100) for analysis. Body mass index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), UA, and UA/100 were significantly higher in males compared with females (all p＜0.05); pulse pressure (PP), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were lower in males than females (all p＜0.05). All vascular parameters including CF-PWV, CR-PWV, CAVI, ABI, and CIMT were higher in males than females (all p＜0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that UA/100 was independently positively linearly correlated with CAVI (B=0.143, p=0.001) and negatively correlated with ABI in the male population (B=－0.012, p=0.020). In people with higher UA, the risk of higher CF-PWV was 1.593 (p＜0.05). 1. All vascular parameters were higher in males than females. There was no gender difference in the relationship between UA and vascular markers except in ABI. 2. UA was independently linearly correlated with CAVI. 3. In people with higher UA level, the risk of higher CF-PWV increased. Therefore, higher UA may influence the vascular function mainly instead of vascular structure.
Curtis, Steven A. (Inventor)
Disclosed are methods, systems, and computer-readable media for determining stability of a neural system. The method includes tracking a function world line of an N element neural system within at least one behavioral space, determining whether the tracking function world line is approaching a psychological stability surface, and implementing a quantitative solution that corrects instability if the tracked function world line is approaching the psychological stability surface.
Emmel, Thomas C.; Sligh, Michael M.
Asserts that overpopulation is the most pressing world problem. Topics discussed include population control in primitive societies, population growth and control in modern societies, methods of motivational population control, consequences of no population control, and mass famines during the 1970's in underdeveloped countries. Cities 33…
Oppenheimer, Valerie K.
Useful as background reading or secondary classroom material, this pamphlet reviews several dimensions of world population growth and control. The first of seven chapters, World Population Growth: Past, Present and Future, discusses some of the reasons for the greatly accelerated growth since 1950, and points out that even significantly rapid…
Leval, Amy; Hergens, Maria Pia; Persson, Karin; Örtqvist, Åke
Real-world estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) are important for early detection of vaccine failure. We developed a method for evaluating real-time in-season vaccine effectiveness (IVE) and overall seasonal VE. In a retrospective, register-based, cohort study including all two million individuals in Stockholm County, Sweden, during the influenza seasons from 2011/12 to 2014/15, vaccination status was obtained from Stockholm's vaccine register. Main outcomes were hospitalisation or primary care visits for influenza (International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes J09-J11). VE was assessed using Cox multivariate stratified and non-stratified analyses adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status, comorbidities and previous influenza vaccinations. Stratified analyses showed moderate VE in prevention of influenza hospitalisations among chronically ill adults ≥ 65 years in two of four seasons, and lower but still significant VE in one season; 53% (95% confidence interval (CI): 33-67) in 2012/13, 55% (95% CI: 25-73) in 2013/14 and 18% (95% CI: 3-31) in 2014/15. In conclusion, seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with substantial reductions in influenza-specific hospitalisation, particularly in adults ≥ 65 years with underlying chronic conditions. With the use of population-based patient register data on influenza-specific outcomes it will be possible to obtain real-time estimates of seasonal influenza VE. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2016.
Kaushalya G. Amarasekare
Full Text Available This study focused on conservation biological control of pear psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola, in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We hypothesized that insecticides applied against the primary insect pest, codling moth Cydia pomonella, negatively impact natural enemies of pear psylla, thus causing outbreaks of this secondary pest. Hence, the objective of this study was to understand how codling moth management influences the abundance of pear psylla and its natural enemy complex in pear orchards managed under long-term codling moth mating disruption programs. We conducted this study within a pear orchard that had previously been under seasonal mating disruption for codling moth for eight years. We replicated two treatments, “natural enemy disrupt” (application of two combination sprays of spinetoram plus chlorantraniliprole timed against first-generation codling moth and “natural enemy non-disrupt” four times in the orchard. Field sampling of psylla and natural enemies (i.e., lacewings, coccinellids, spiders, Campylomma verbasci, syrphid flies, earwigs revealed that pear psylla populations remained well below treatment thresholds all season despite the reduced abundance of key pear psylla natural enemies in the natural enemy disrupt plots compared with the non-disrupt treatment. We speculate that pear psylla are difficult to disrupt when pear orchards are under long-term codling moth disruption.
Amarasekare, Kaushalya G; Shearer, Peter W
This study focused on conservation biological control of pear psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola , in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We hypothesized that insecticides applied against the primary insect pest, codling moth Cydia pomonella , negatively impact natural enemies of pear psylla, thus causing outbreaks of this secondary pest. Hence, the objective of this study was to understand how codling moth management influences the abundance of pear psylla and its natural enemy complex in pear orchards managed under long-term codling moth mating disruption programs. We conducted this study within a pear orchard that had previously been under seasonal mating disruption for codling moth for eight years. We replicated two treatments, "natural enemy disrupt" (application of two combination sprays of spinetoram plus chlorantraniliprole timed against first-generation codling moth) and "natural enemy non-disrupt" four times in the orchard. Field sampling of psylla and natural enemies (i.e., lacewings, coccinellids, spiders, Campylomma verbasci , syrphid flies, earwigs) revealed that pear psylla populations remained well below treatment thresholds all season despite the reduced abundance of key pear psylla natural enemies in the natural enemy disrupt plots compared with the non-disrupt treatment. We speculate that pear psylla are difficult to disrupt when pear orchards are under long-term codling moth disruption.
Mauricio H. Serpa
Full Text Available The presence of psychotic features in the course of a depressive disorder is known to increase the risk for bipolarity, but the early identification of such cases remains challenging in clinical practice. In the present study, we evaluated the diagnostic performance of a neuroanatomical pattern classification method in the discrimination between psychotic major depressive disorder (MDD, bipolar I disorder (BD-I, and healthy controls (HC using a homogenous sample of patients at an early course of their illness. Twenty-three cases of first-episode psychotic mania (BD-I and 19 individuals with a first episode of psychotic MDD whose diagnosis remained stable during 1 year of followup underwent 1.5 T MRI at baseline. A previously validated multivariate classifier based on support vector machine (SVM was employed and measures of diagnostic performance were obtained for the discrimination between each diagnostic group and subsamples of age- and gender-matched controls recruited in the same neighborhood of the patients. Based on T1-weighted images only, the SVM-classifier afforded poor discrimination in all 3 pairwise comparisons: BD-I versus HC; MDD versus HC; and BD-I versus MDD. Thus, at the population level and using structural MRI only, we failed to achieve good discrimination between BD-I, psychotic MDD, and HC in this proof of concept study.
forces to the protected population .” An “ overwhelming presence” was essential to the initial success in Haiti and an “inadequate” number of troops was...stability operations until they achieve the endstate rather than rotating them allows the military to use overwhelming presence, successfully handle...must deploy a force that provides an overwhelming presence in the area of operations with the mission to achieve the endstate. 14. SUBJECT
World-system scholars have traditionally emphasized the stability of the core/periphery hierarchy. However, prior network studies employing both categorical and continuous measures of world-system position reveal substantial mobility across time, whereby a number of developing states have become more integrated in the world economy over the past…
Asplund, Chad; Ross, Michael
Bicycling is a popular fitness activity in the United States and around the world. Because of the nature of the bicycling position, the neck and back are at risk for injury. One method to prevent these injuries is to ensure that the body's "core" is strong and stable. A strong and stable core also provides a platform to maximize power transfer, improving performance. Core exercises also may enhance recovery from intense bicycling efforts. Simple stability exercises can improve performance and may prevent injuries in bicyclists.
It is demonstrated that full employment and sustainable development not necessarily are conflicting goals. On the other hand macroeconomic stability cannot be obtained without a deliberate labour sharing policy and a shift in the composition of private consumption away from traditional material...
Evaluation of the frequency of polymorphisms in XRCC1 (Arg399Gln) and XPD (Lys751Gln) genes related to the genome stability maintenance in individuals of the resident population from Monte Alegre, PA/Brazil municipality
Duarte, Isabelle Magliano
The human exposure to ionizing radiation coming from natural sources is an inherent feature of human life on Earth. Ionizing radiation is a known genotoxic agent, which can affect biological molecules, causing DNA damage and genomic instability. The cellular system of DNA repair plays an important role in maintaining genomic stability by repairing DNA damage caused by genotoxic agents. However, genes related to DNA repair may have their role committed when presenting a certain polymorphism. This study intended to analyze the frequency of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes of DNA repair XRCC1 (Arg39-9Gln) and XPD (Lys751Gln) in a: population of the city of Monte Alegre, that resides in an area of high exposure to natural radioactivity. Samples of saliva were collected from individuals of the population of Monte Alegre, in which 40 samples were of male and 46 female. Through the use of RFLP (length polymorphism restriction fragment) the frequency of homozygous genotypes and / or heterozygous was determined for polymorphic genes. The XRCC1 gene had 65.4% of the presence of the allele 399Gln and XPD gene had 32.9% of the 751Gln allele. These values are similar to those found in previous studies for the XPD gene, whereas XRCC1 showed a frequency much higher than described in the literature. The. influence of these polymorphisms, which are involved in DNA repair and consequent genotoxicity induced by radiation depends on dose and exposure factors such as smoking, statistically a factor in public health surveillance in the region. This study gathered information and molecular epidemiology for risk assessment of cancer in the population of Monte Alegre. (author)
Full Text Available Relying on Ottoman archival documents, this article presents that during World War I the protection of the Muslim population in Serbia could be achieved only with the help of the mediator states who provided communication between the Ottoman Empire and Serbia. After the Ottoman Empire lost large portions of its lands in the Balkans, the protection of the Muslim population in the Balkans emerged as a new problem. The Istanbul Treaty of March 14, 1914 aimed to solve these problems, but the outbreak of WWI made the implementation difficult as the issues could only be discussed indirectly through mediator states. Özet: Osmanlı arşiv belgelerine dayanarak hazırlanan bu makale Birinci Dünya Savaşı’nda Sırbistan’daki Müslüman nüfusun korunmasının Osmanlı Devleti ve Sırbistan arasında aracılık yapan devletler vasıtasıyla sağlanabildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Osmanlı Devleti’nin Balkan Savaşları sonrasında Balkanlar’da bıraktığı topraklarında kalan Müslüman halkın haklarının korunması yeni bir mesele olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. 14 Mart 1914’te imzalanan İstanbul Anlaşması meseleye çözüm getirmeye çalışmış ancak Birinci Dünya Savaşı’nın çıkması ve Osmanlı-Sırp diplomatik ilişkilerinin kesintiye uğraması ile anlaşmanın uygulanmasında sorunlar yaşanmıştır. Bu sorunlar ancak aracı devletlerin yardımları ile kısmen giderilebilmiştir.
Mansourian, Marjan; Marateb, Hamid Reza; Kelishadi, Roya; Motlagh, Mohammad Esmaeil; Aminaee, Tahereh; Taslimi, Mahnaz; Majdzadeh, Reza; Heshmat, Ramin; Ardalan, Gelayol; Poursafa, Parinaz
The World Health Organization (WHO) is in the process of establishing a new global database on the growth of school children and adolescents. Limited national data exist from Asian children, notably those living in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study aimed to generate the growth chart of a nationally representative sample of Iranian children aged 10-19 years, and to explore how well these anthropometric data match with international growth references. In this nationwide study, the anthropometric data were recorded from Iranian students, aged 10-19 years, who were selected by multistage random cluster sampling from urban and rural areas. Prior to the analysis, outliers were excluded from the features height-for-age and body mass index (BMI)-for-age using the NCHS/WHO cut-offs. The Box-Cox power exponential (BCPE) method was used to calculate height-for-age and BMI-for-age Z-scores for our study participants. Then, children with overweight, obesity, thinness, and severe thinness were identified using the BMI-for-age z-scores. Moreover, stunted children were detected using the height-for-age z-scores. The growth curve of the Iranian children was then generated from the z-scores, smoothed by cubic S-plines. The study population comprised 5430 school students consisting of 2312 (44%) participants aged 10-14 years , and 3118 (58%) with 15-19 years of age. Eight percent of the participants had low BMI (thinness: 6% and severe thinness: 2%), 20% had high BMI (overweight: 14% and obesity: 6%), and 7% were stunted. The prevalence rates of low and high BMI were greater in boys than in girls (P < 0.001). The mean BMI-for-age, and the average height-for-age of Iranian children aged 10-19 years were lower than the WHO 2007 and United states Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2000 (USCDC2000) references. The current growth curves generated from a national dataset may be included for establishing WHO global database on children's growth. Similar to most low
Full Text Available Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO is in the process of establishing a new global database on the growth of school children and adolescents. Limited national data exist from Asian children, notably those living in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA. This study aimed to generate the growth chart of a nationally representative sample of Iranian children aged 10–19 years, and to explore how well these anthropometric data match with international growth references. Methods In this nationwide study, the anthropometric data were recorded from Iranian students, aged 10–19 years, who were selected by multistage random cluster sampling from urban and rural areas. Prior to the analysis, outliers were excluded from the features height-for-age and body mass index (BMI-for-age using the NCHS/WHO cut-offs. The Box-Cox power exponential (BCPE method was used to calculate height-for-age and BMI-for-age Z-scores for our study participants. Then, children with overweight, obesity, thinness, and severe thinness were identified using the BMI-for-age z-scores. Moreover, stunted children were detected using the height-for-age z-scores. The growth curve of the Iranian children was then generated from the z-scores, smoothed by cubic S-plines. Results The study population comprised 5430 school students consisting of 2312 (44% participants aged 10–14 years , and 3118 (58% with 15–19 years of age. Eight percent of the participants had low BMI (thinness: 6% and severe thinness: 2%, 20% had high BMI (overweight: 14% and obesity: 6%, and 7% were stunted. The prevalence rates of low and high BMI were greater in boys than in girls (P Conclusions The current growth curves generated from a national dataset may be included for establishing WHO global database on children’s growth. Similar to most low-and middle income populations, Iranian children aged 10–19 years are facing a double burden of weight disorders, notably under- and
This news brief focuses on the debate about population issues at the UN Conference on Human Settlements, held in Istanbul, Turkey, in June 1996. The Istanbul Declaration on Human Settlements was adopted by world leaders at the conference. Leaders were committed to programs to improve standards of living, the right of citizens to adequate housing, and the mobilization of new financial resources. Dr. Sadik, as Executive Director of the UN Population Fund, stressed that natural increase accounts for 60% of urban population growth. Mr. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, as UN Secretary General, stressed that over 50% of world population would live in urban centers by the year 2000, and almost 75% might do so by 2025. He indicated that all nations are interrelated; the poor and refugees from political conflict from one country travel to safer and richer countries. Dr. Sadik referred to the agreement at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) on stabilizing world population in the shortest time possible. This would require meeting the needs of men and women for health, education, and the power of personal decision making. The most important item was the satisfaction of women's need for reproductive health information and services and women's power to use services. Dr. Sadik urged that women be given the right to hold and inherit property and to obtain credit. It was pointed out that the language of Habitat's plan of action on population and development issues was frequently bracketed; consequently, the plan suffered from a lack of consensus. The debate between countries would end, if the language were not bracketed. Dr. Sadik recommended family planning for developing sustainable and liveable cities.
The conference paper deals with new frontiers and barricades in the global economic development and their influence on fuel consumption and energy source development. Topics discussed are incremental energy supply - new frontiers, world car population - new frontiers, OPEC crude production capacity vs call on OPEC, incremental world oil demand by region 1992-2000, oil resource cost curve, progress in seismic 1983-1991, Troll picture, cost reduction in renewables, sustained growth scenario, nuclear electricity capacity - France, OECD road transport fuels - barricades, and energy taxation. 18 figs
Allen, Emily; de Cresce El Debs, Luciana; Bobet, Antonio; Bross, Kristina
This roundtable brings together scholars from radically different disciplines to talk about how we think and what we do when we set out to build a world, either in reality or in our imaginations. Sparked by the novel Station Eleven, the award-winning novel by Emily St. John Mandel, which imagines a future set in the Great Lakes region after a flu pandemic has wiped out 99% of the population, our participants will consider what methods and tools they bring to bear on projecting future worlds. ...
Population models are often discussed in algebra, calculus, and differential equations courses. In this article we will use the human population of the world as our application. After quick looks at two common models we'll investigate more deeply a model which incorporates the negative effect that accumulated pollution may have on population.
Measham, A R
This paper challenges the simplistic, though popular, view that the world must choose between programs for fertility control and socioeconomic development; between the Malthusian focus on population control and the Marxist one on exploitation control. In the developing world there is great need for achievement on both fronts through a broad range of policies and programs. It is inaccurate and injust to label social policies aimed at ensuring stabilization of world population size in the next century as neoMalthusian. It is also a fact that Soviet scholars now consider excessive population growth a problem for development planners. Accusations that birth control programs advocated for the Third World represent race genocide are based on erroneous thinking. Those who advocate contraception want to make it available to less privileged members of both more and less developed societies. It is not a neo-colonialist plot against the Third World: China herself has a population policy. On the other hand, the Roman Catholic Church, in common with some socialist countries, seeks to inhibit international action aimed at spreading contraception. Even though there is no optimal strategy for development per se, it is understandable that most developmental aid is viewed in terms of a desired model of social change by the donor countries. However, leadership by the U.S. in providing family planning assistance since the 1950s should not be construed as an imperialist plot. No group has the right to impose its preferences on the Third World. A rational approach towards development suggests that 1) developing countries should accept aid without undue concern of the motives involved in the giving of aid; and 2) the development assistance by donors should be increased, made more easily available, should be more multilateral, given without strings attached, and generally made less discriminatory. Birth control assistance will succeed only if general development assistance is redefined
Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.
This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women";…
Narayana, D L
This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize
Full Text Available World civilization depends on the provision of global public goods such as tackling climate change, ensuring international financial stability or peace and security. Yet, the intergovernmental system of global governance is not capable of delivering the required results. At a fundamental level, the change necessary to achieve functioning world governance consists of a transition from international law to world law. A key element in this is the development of a global legislative system that includes a democratically elected world parliament. The establishment of a UN Parliamentary Assembly would be a pragmatic first step.
Roč. 58, - (2000), s. 79-94 ISSN 0040-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/98/0227; GA MŠk VS96086; GA AV ČR KSK2005601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5007907; CEZ:MSM 123100004 Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.833, year: 2000
The current state of the world's uranium market and its effect on US nuclear-fueled utilities is discussed. Major uranium-related issues that will confront US utility nuclear fuel managers in the coming years are presented, emphasizing the perspectives of supply, demand, world market adjustment, and US market restrictions on imports. It is stated that the US market is essential by non-US producers to help equilibrate an otherwise excessive supply which would cause chaos in the market. To avoid another ten-year boom/bust cycle, the US is urged to reexamine its position on long-term contracts - which permit greater price stability in contrast to the spot market and its price fluctuations. 13 figures, 6 tables
Russell, C; Russell, W M
To prevent a population irretrievably depleting its resources, mammals have evolved a behavioural and physiological response to population crisis. When a mammalian population becomes dangerously dense, there is a reversal of behaviour. Co-operation and parental behaviour are replaced by competition, dominance and aggressive violence, leading to high mortality, especially of females and young, and a reduced population. The stress of overpopulation and the resulting violence impairs both the immune and the reproductive systems. Hence epidemics complete the crash of the population, and reproduction is slowed for three or four generations, giving the resources ample time to recover. In some mammal species, crisis and crisis response recur regularly, leading to cycles of population growth and relapse, oscillating about a fixed mean. Population crisis response and population cycles have been equally prominent in the history of human societies. But in man successive advances in food production have made possible growing populations, though with every such advance population soon outgrew resources again. Hence human cycles have been superimposed on a rising curve, producing a saw-tooth graph. Because advances in food production amounted to sudden disturbances in the relations between human populations and their environments, the crisis response in man has failed to avert famine and resource damage. In the large human societies evolved since the coming of settled agriculture and cities, the basic effects of violence, epidemics, famine and resource damage have been mediated by such specifically human disasters as inflation, unemployment, and political tyranny. An account of past crises, periods of relative relief from population pressure, and resulting cycles, is given for a number of regions: China, North Africa and Western Asia, the northern Mediterranean, and north-western Europe. The paper ends with an account of the present world-wide population crisis, and the solution
Lakshmikantham, Vangipuram; Martynyuk, Anatoly A
The book investigates stability theory in terms of two different measure, exhibiting the advantage of employing families of Lyapunov functions and treats the theory of a variety of inequalities, clearly bringing out the underlying theme. It also demonstrates manifestations of the general Lyapunov method, showing how this technique can be adapted to various apparently diverse nonlinear problems. Furthermore it discusses the application of theoretical results to several different models chosen from real world phenomena, furnishing data that is particularly relevant for practitioners. Stability Analysis of Nonlinear Systems is an invaluable single-sourse reference for industrial and applied mathematicians, statisticians, engineers, researchers in the applied sciences, and graduate students studying differential equations.
Puig, O; Penadés, R; Baeza, I; Sánchez-Gistau, V; De la Serna, E; Fonrodona, L; Andrés-Perpiñá, S; Bernardo, M; Castro-Fornieles, J
Cognition and clinical variables are known to be among the most predictive factors of real-world social functioning and daily living skills in adult-onset schizophrenia. Fewer studies have focused on their impact in adolescents with early-onset schizophrenia (EOS). The aim of this study is to examine the relationships and the predictive value of cognition and clinical variables on real-world daily living skills in a sample of adolescents with EOS. Cognitive, clinical and real-world everyday living skills measures were administered to 45 clinically and pharmacologically stabilized adolescent outpatients with EOS and 45 healthy control subjects matched by age and sex. Multi-variant analyses to compare cognitive and real-world functioning profiles between patients and controls and regression analysis to identify predictors of real-world functioning scores in patients were used. Adolescents with EOS showed a generalized cognitive and real-world daily living skills dysfunction. Several cognitive and clinical variables significantly correlated with real-world daily living skills functioning but only the processing speed and executive functions emerged as independent predictors of everyday living skills scores, explaining 25.1% of the variance. Slowness in processing information and executive dysfunction showed a significant impact on real-world daily living skills in EOS, independently from clinical symptoms and other cognitive variables. Nevertheless, much of the variance in the daily living skills measure remained unaccounted for, suggesting that other factors were involved as well in this young population.
Libby, L.M.; Wurtele, M.G.; Whipple, C.G.
Desert sites with a history of seismic stability were studied for storage of radioactive wastes because of the attractive meteorology, proven longterm geological stability, and distance from human population centers. Specific deserts were to be representative of various kinds of world deserts, if substantial information about each desert was available, to examine with respect to transporting, handling, storing, and cooling the radioactive waste, and the site suitability as to geological conditions, water availability, alternative land use, airborne emissions of heat, accidental radioactive emission, and possible socioeonomic impacts. No significant technical obstacles to the use of the world deserts as sites for a retrievable storage facility for 500 years were found. However, given the relatively low level of effort that was allocated between the many technical issues listed above, this study is neither a full risk assessment nor a full environmental impact analysis of such a facility. Assessments for siting the facility were made for five deserts, chosen to be representative of Old World, New World, Australian, interior, coastal, foggy, hot and cold: the Nullarbor Plain of Australia, the Namib in Africa, the Great Basin of the United States represented by the Nevada Test Site, the North Slope of Alaska and Canada, and the Egyptian desert
Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.
The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanization and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanization and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to interannual climate variability. However, urbanization arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance-based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.
Full Text Available We review the concept of dynamic kinetic stability, a type of stability associated specifically with replicating entities, and show how it differs from the well-known and established (static kinetic and thermodynamic stabilities associated with regular chemical systems. In the process we demonstrate how the concept can help bridge the conceptual chasm that continues to separate the physical and biological sciences by relating the nature of stability in the animate and inanimate worlds, and by providing additional insights into the physicochemical nature of abiogenesis.
Ouedraogo, Abdoulaye; Tosun, Mehmet S.; Yang, Jingjing
There have been significant changes in both the fertility rates and fertility perception since 1970s. In this paper, we examine the relationship between government policies towards fertility and the fertility trends. Total fertility rate, defined as the number of children per woman, is used as the main fertility trend variable. We use panel data from the United Nations World Population Policies database, and the World Bank World Development Indicators for the period 1976 through 2013. We find...
Political stability throughout the world appears to be greater in countries with slowly growing populations than in those with rapid growth. Population is not the only influence on political stability, however. The relationship between political stability and development is strong. The rich countries with the slowest growth are the most stable, while poor developing countries with rapid growth suffer from chronic instability. Demographic pressure and density are not the same thing and must be distinguished. A fragile environment like that of the Sahel will experience demographic pressure despite low density. Japan has a greater population density than Rwanda and little cultivable land, but the population has a high standard of living. demographic pressure is not comparable in Japan and Rwanda because Japan has slow population growth and stable democratic political institutions. The rate of growth seems to be a more important element in destabilization than density. Rapid growth creates enormous political tensions especially when profound ethnic divisions exist, and it complicates problems of government by encouraging rapid urbanization. The unbalanced age structures resulting from rapid growth hinder the satisfaction of employment, educational, and health care needs for the ever-increasing masses of young people. 49% of Rwanda's population is under 15 and 66% is under 25. Rwanda is already densely populated, with around 300 inhabitants/sq km, and its population is projected to double in 20 years. 95% of the population is dependent on agriculture, but by 1988 the average landholding per family was only 1.25 hectares and 58% of families did not grown sufficient food for household needs. Further reduction in the size of holdings or a growing landless population will have multiple consequences. Urban migration will inevitably increase, bringing with it all the problems so evident in other poor countries where the process is more advanced than in Rwanda. Chaotic
The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system? Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity. WEO-2010 shows: what more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to limit the global temperature increase to 2 deg. C and how these actions would impact on oil markets; how emerging economies -- led by China and India -- will increasingly shape the global energy landscape; what role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future; what removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change and state budgets; the trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply; the prospects for unconventional oil; and how to give the entire global population access to modern energy services. With extensive data, projections and analysis, this publication provides invaluable insights into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.
Warren, S. G.
Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, the Philippines, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are based on a logical fallacy in that they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary negative feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. The benign projections that have resulted from this assumption may have hindered efforts to make availability of birth-control a priority in development-aid. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations, because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food. Even if the fertility rate is maintained far in excess of 2, the population cannot grow if food is limiting. Without the agricultural advances of the 20thcentury, world population could not have grown as it did from 1.7 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000. The food supply may be enhanced in the future by genetic engineering and other innovations, but it may be limited by water shortage, climate change, pollution, and energy
Trunev A. P.
We investigate the hypothesis of a plurality of parallel and virtual worlds. It is assumed that sentient beings in each virtual world reach a stage of development that can create a virtual world to simulate the history of their own development. In this case, the virtual worlds are nested within each other, which put a severe restriction on the possible geometry of space-time. Discussed the draft geometry virtual worlds consistently displayed from one world to another. It is shown that in this...
In order to build AI we have to create a program which copes well in an arbitrary world. In this paper we will restrict our attention on one concrete world, which represents the game Tick-Tack-Toe. This world is a very simple one but it is sufficiently complicated for our task because most people cannot manage with it. The main difficulty in this world is that the player cannot see the entire internal state of the world so he has to build a model in order to understand the world. The model wh...
Canavan, G.H.; Browne, J.C.; Joseph, R.J.
Joint defensive projects could increase stability and decrease the alert rates of strategic forces. Areas include the defense of the US, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and their allies against third world threats; protection against each other`s accidental or unauthorized launches; and defense against intentional attacks. The most promising area appears to be defining interfaces for the handover of satellite warning and trajectory information, which applies to most phases of theater defense and mutual protection. 19 refs.
Canavan, G.H.; Browne, J.C.; Joseph, R.J.
Joint defensive projects could increase stability and decrease the alert rates of strategic forces. Areas include the defense of the US, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and their allies against third world threats; protection against each other's accidental or unauthorized launches; and defense against intentional attacks. The most promising area appears to be defining interfaces for the handover of satellite warning and trajectory information, which applies to most phases of theater defense and mutual protection. 19 refs.
Molina, Chai; Earn, David J D
We investigate a type of public goods games played in groups of individuals who choose how much to contribute towards the production of a common good, at a cost to themselves. In these games, the common good is produced based on the sum of contributions from all group members, then equally distributed among them. In applications, the dependence of the common good on the total contribution is often nonlinear (e.g., exhibiting synergy or diminishing returns). To date, most theoretical and experimental studies have addressed scenarios in which the set of possible contributions is discrete. However, in many real-world situations, contributions are continuous (e.g., individuals volunteering their time). The "n-player snowdrift games" that we analyze involve continuously varying contributions. We establish under what conditions populations of contributing (or "cooperating") individuals can evolve and persist. Previous work on snowdrift games, using adaptive dynamics, has found that what we term an "equally cooperative" strategy is locally convergently and evolutionarily stable. Using static evolutionary game theory, we find conditions under which this strategy is actually globally evolutionarily stable. All these results refer to stability to invasion by a single mutant. We broaden the scope of existing stability results by showing that the equally cooperative strategy is locally stable to potentially large population perturbations, i.e., allowing for the possibility that mutants make up a non-negligible proportion of the population (due, for example, to genetic drift, environmental variability or dispersal).
Willekens, F.J.; Matthijs, K.; Neels, K.; Timmerman, C.; Haers, J.; Mels, S.
Willekens, F. (2015) Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman. J. Haers and S. Mels eds. Population change at work in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Ashgate (International Population Studies Series) pp. 13-44.
Discusses the teaching of world hunger in the classroom. Controversial questions and map skills for students are discussed as well as activities for home economics and science classes. A list of resource materials is included. (AM)
The visual quality of game worlds increased massively in the last three decades. However, the closer game worlds depict reality, the more noticeable it is for gamers when objects do not behave accordingly. An important problem is that the data of a game world is often scattered across different
The article gathers together short pieces of information concerning the nuclear sector over the world. The French nuclear safety agency has announced that it is not opposed to the principle of prolongation the service life (till 40 years) of 900 MWe units. The French agency for the management of radioactive wastes has edited the 2009 version of the inventory of radioactive wastes on the French soil. At the end of 2007, there were 1.152.533 m 3 of radioactive wastes, among them 0.2% are graded as high level radioactivity wastes. The European utility requirements organization has certified the EPR (European pressurized reactor). The Garona nuclear power plant has been given by the Spanish government a renewing of its license for only 2 years while the nuclear safety authority proposed a prolongation of 10 years. The plant will have to close definitely in july 2013. Poland will have its first nuclear power plant by 2020. Russian authorities want Russian nuclear industry to take a quarter of the worldwide civil nuclear market, an investment of 2.7 10 9 euros is planned over the years 2010 - 2012 to develop advanced nuclear technologies. In Switzerland, the local population is not opposed to the construction of a nuclear unit to replace the Muehleberg plant. 2 new uranium mines (Four Mile and Lake Maitland) have been opened in Australia. Canada and China have started a cooperation to develop the thorium cycle. (A.C.)
Bergman, Ulf Michael; Hutchison, Michael M.
We investigate whether fiscal rules help to reduce the extent of policy procyclicalitydhow government expenditure policy responds to GDP – in a dynamic panel framework with 81 advanced, emerging and developing countries over 1985-2012. We construct two new fiscal rule indices and investigate whet...... efficiency/quality has been reached. Government efficiency alone is not enough to reduce procyclicality of fiscal policy. However, high government efficiency combined with strong fiscal rules is a potent combination facilitating counter-cyclical policy responses to GDP movements....
Policymakers and institutions of the more developed Northern countries make cogent arguments for a reduction in global population growth and an eventual stabilization of population size. Current global population is simply too large for the Earth's current carrying capacity and level of technology. Should world population double, insecurity and scarcity will result. The author, however, counters that population, in all of its dimensions, is neither an issue nor problem exclusive of and to the South. Population growth and related dynamics are instead a concern and responsibility for all people on Earth. The Northern call for population reduction is self-centered in its ignorance of equity, poverty, indebtedness, and structural adjustment program-induced collapse of social security systems; these latter issues are of greater concern than population growth to the developing countries of the South. Northern priority on population also directly affects resource allocation such that more funds are available for population activities than for mechanisms such as the Global Environmental Facility. True, industrial societies have kept their population sizes at manageable levels. For how long, however, can developed countries expect to maintain their annual per capita incomes of more than $20,000 and annual per capita waste emission of more than 20 tons on the backs of hundreds of millions of people in other parts of the world? Developed country lifestyles are ultimately unsustainable. Nongovernmental organizations and voluntary citizens' groups in the North need to help Southern nations and communities by focusing upon the interlocking relationship between the lifestyle in the North and the South's problems of poverty, environmental degradation, and erosion of community and social cohesion. Northern citizens' groups can complement the efforts of their Southern counterparts by advocating a new kind of structural adjustment which reverses the pattern of resource outflow from
A theoretical study is carried out concerning two experimental topics: stabilization, by a suprathermal population, of the mode ''m=1, n=1'' which induces the sawtooth effect (modelling the role of suprathermal particles in the stabilization); stability, in the non linear regime, of the magnetic islands involved in magnetic turbulence problems (micro-tearing) and in disruption phenomena (tearing), and the effects of diamagnetism, excitation threshold and saturation levels. 45 figs., 97 refs
Fussmann, Katarina E.; Schwarzmueller, Florian; Brose, Ulrich; Jousset, Alexandre|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370632656; Rall, Bjoern C.
That species' biological rates including metabolism, growth and feeding scale with temperature is well established from warming experiments(1). The interactive influence of these changes on population dynamics, however, remains uncertain. As a result, uncertainty about ecological stability in
Hyyppa, Markku T.; Maki, Juhani; Alanen, Erkki; Impivaara, Olli; Aromaa, Arpo
The long-term stability of social participation was investigated in a representative urban population of 415 men and 579 women who had taken part in the nationwide Mini-Finland Health Survey in the years 1978-1980 and were re-examined 20 years later. Stability was assessed by means of the following tracking coefficients: kappa, proportion of…
... is expected to become an even more serious problem as the world population and longevity increases. The other major glaucoma type ... of all cases of blindness from glaucoma in China. There is great racial diversity among Asian populations, and these differences are represented in the presentation ...
Harmon, D; Brechin, S R
Population-environment interactions date back to Malthus and even Confucius who viewed humans as a threat to the planet. In contrast, pronatalists regard the human mind the ultimate resource and think that there is no limit to the number of people the earth can support. There are a few countries whose population is projected to be lower in 2025 than it was in 1990: Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, and Italy. The highest population growth rates (3% and above) are in Africa, the Gulf states, and some other Islamic countries. Rates of 1-3% are common everywhere outside Europe. Almost all of the wealthiest countries are growing at the rate of less than 1%, while the poorest countries, except for China and Sri Lanka, are growing at rates of 2% or more. The world's continuing population growth rides on the fact that in developing countries 40% of the population is under the age of 15. Relentless urbanization will eradicate 1.4 billion acres of arable land from 1980 to 2000. In 1950, 13 of the 25 most populous cities were in less developed countries; by 2000, 20 out of 25 will be. Migration, especially rural-urban migration, has an impact. "Economic refugees" from impoverished rural areas, "environmental refugees" from overworked lands or disaster-stricken areas, and political refugees from wars or persecution crowd around protected areas. Some examples of the population-protected area interactions include Kenya (the 3.56% growth rate threatens the world-renowned national parks), Tanzania (its 3.28% rate of growth causes encroachment into protected areas), Congo (natural rainforests are disturbed), Gabon (the rate of growth is 4.01%), and Zaire (an annual increment of over 1 million people). The threat to unexploited wildlife in the Ivory Coast, direct pressure on forested protected areas in Malaysia, deforestation in the Philippines, in-migration into the Pelen in Guatemala, the situation of the Shenandoah National Park in the United States, and pressures
n 1974, the United Nations organized the first inter-governmental conference dedicated especially to problems of population and demography. Apart from technical issue involved, the conference represented yet another manifestation of disagreements between the industrialized countries, on one hand, and the underdeveloped or developing countries. The first group argued that overpopulation was a major risk as the Earth did not have sufficient resources to feed the ever-growing population and birt...
The human brain, power grids, arrays of coupled lasers and the Amazon rainforest are all characterized by multistability. The likelihood that these systems will remain in the most desirable of their many stable states depends on their stability against significant perturbations, particularly in a state space populated by undesirable states. Here we claim that the traditional linearization-based approach to stability is in several cases too local to adequately assess how stable a state is. Instead, we quantify it in terms of basin stability, a new measure related to the volume of the basin of attraction. Basin stability is non-local, nonlinear and easily applicable, even to high-dimensional systems. It provides a long-sought-after explanation for the surprisingly regular topologies of neural networks and power grids, which have eluded theoretical description based solely on linear stability. Specifically, we employ a component-wise version of basin stability, a nonlinear inspection scheme, to investigate how a grid's degree of stability is influenced by certain patterns in the wiring topology. Various statistics from our ensemble simulations all support one main finding: The widespread and cheapest of all connection schemes, namely dead ends and dead trees, strongly diminish stability. For the Northern European power system we demonstrate that the inverse is also true: `Healing' dead ends by addition of transmission lines substantially enhances stability. This indicates a crucial smart-design principle for tomorrow's sustainable power grids: add just a few more lines to avoid dead ends. Further, we analyse the particular function of certain network motifs to promote the stability of the system. Here we uncover the impact of so-called detour motifs on the appearance of nodes with a poor stability score and discuss the implications for power grid design. Moreover, it will be shown that basin stability enables uncovering the mechanism for explosive synchronization and
The two-sided economic down-turn and food crisis being experienced in many parts of the world has become a concern of many world leaders and peoples. The Malthusian theory is gradually steering many pessimists in the face as food production is nothing to compare with the population growth in many parts of the world.
The organization of the 2014 football world cup by Brazil is an opportunity to recall how the level of natural radioactivity can change from a country to another. Brazil is with Iran and India one of the 3 countries where the level of natural radioactivity is the highest. In Brazil the average value for natural radioactivity is about 10 mSv/year but you can find spots on the Brazilian 'planalto' where natural radioactivity ranges from 10 to a few tens of mSv/year. The mean value of natural radioactivity at the world scale is about 2.5 mSv/year. The value of 10 mSv/year is the radiation threshold that may trigger the evacuation of the local population in case of a nuclear accident in France. These various figures show that radiation dose limits are very low and should not be considered as representative of actual health hazards. (A.C.)
Locklin, Reid B.; Tiemeier, Tracy; Vento, Johann M.
Tomoko Masuzawa and a number of other contemporary scholars have recently problematized the categories of "religion" and "world religions" and, in some cases, called for its abandonment altogether as a discipline of scholarly study. In this collaborative essay, we respond to this critique by highlighting three attempts to teach…
Horst, S. M.
We now know that the outer solar system contains a number of Ocean Worlds (and candidate Ocean Worlds), including Europa, Titan, Enceladus, Callisto, and Ganymede. The presence of liquid water on these worlds (and also liquid hydrocarbons on the multi-ocean world Titan) means they are particularly intriguing sites for searching for life in the solar system. In addition to the presence of liquid, the search for life centers around understanding the abundance and composition of organic materials available for the origin, evolution, and persistence of life. Characterization of these organics is necessary for assessing the habitability of Ocean Worlds and searching for past or extant life, which in turn requires a robust framework for identifying biosignatures and instruments that are capable of the required measurements. I will review our current understanding of organic materials and Ocean Worlds and discuss future prospects for improving the state of knowledge including the search for life.
Merrick, T W
This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.
Ishkhanov Aleksandr Vladimirovich
Full Text Available In the article the influence of the existing world currency system on the international financial relations is considered, the retrospective analysis of the existing four currency systems is carried out. The change of a world currency order is justified. The concept of the new international currency standard based on division of functions of money between separate financial instruments of one currency is offered. The functional communications between financial instruments are revealed. The comparison of function of money and independent tools of new world currency is carried out, it is supposed that tools are actually completely capable to carry out all functions of money. Therefore, the new international currency standard is based on division of these functions between separate tools and can be defined as polytool. The general function chart of the polytool world currency standard including their functional connections between reserve tool, reverse tool and credit as well as their characteristics which should determine the activity of world reserve system. Prerequisites of replacement of the Jamaican currency system by the alternative are proved; the most perspective way of transition to the polytool standard is revealed; the additional functions of the polytool standard are designated – stimulation of issuers of the leading world currencies to refuse harmful policy of competitive devaluation, stimulation of integration of the countries and creation of collective currencies (currency zones and associations that will significantly increase financial stability of world economy.
Brooke, M de L
Improving knowledge of the population sizes of all the world's seabirds allows this provisional estimate of their annual food consumption. Knowing the body mass and energy density of prey it is possible to employ standard metabolic equations to estimate daily and hence annual consumption of a seabird. Using this approach, and assuming that, at the least, there are three individuals alive for every recorded breeding pair, the annual food consumption of all the world's seabirds is 70 million to...
Barrow, John D; Hervik, Sigbjorn
We investigate brane-worlds with a pure magnetic field and a perfect fluid. We extend earlier work to brane-worlds and find new properties of the Bianchi type I brane-world. We find new asymptotic behaviours on approach to singularity and classify the critical points of the dynamical phase space. It is known that the Einstein equations for the magnetic Bianchi type I models are in general oscillatory and are believed to be chaotic, but in the brane-world model this chaotic behaviour does not seem to be possible
de Beer, J.A.A.
United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.
Arai, Masato; Blaschke, Filip; Eto, Minoru; Sakai, Norisuke
We present a field theoretical model unifying grand unified theory (GUT) and brane world scenario. As a concrete example, we consider S U (5 ) GUT in 4 +1 dimensions where our 3 +1 dimensional spacetime spontaneously arises on five domain walls. A field-dependent gauge kinetic term is used to localize massless non-Abelian gauge fields on the domain walls and to assure the charge universality of matter fields. We find the domain walls with the symmetry breaking S U (5 )→S U (3 )×S U (2 )×U (1 ) as a global minimum and all the undesirable moduli are stabilized with the mass scale of MGUT. Profiles of massless standard model particles are determined as a consequence of wall dynamics. The proton decay can be exponentially suppressed.
Over half of all significant events that occur in nuclear plants involve human performance problems. There is increasing worldwide recognition that human performance problems have a significant impact on the safety, cost, and efficiency of nuclear plant operations. Emotional stability components have an important direct and indirect impact on human performance problems. This paper examines emotional stability components that are currently incorporated into human performance evaluation systems (HPES) in nuclear plants. It describes HPES programs being developed around the world, the emotional stability components that are currently referred to in these programs, and suggestions for improving HPES programs through a greater understanding of emotion stability components. A review of emotional stability components that may hinder or promote a plant environment that encourages the voluntary reporting and correction of human error is also presented
Items 1 - 39 of 39 ... Archives: Science World Journal. Journal Home > Archives: Science World Journal. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register · Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives. 1 - 39 of 39 Items. 2017 ...
Jones, Natalie; Hughes, Wyn
This unit, developed by the Third World Science Project, is designed to add a multicultural element to existing science syllabi (for students aged 11-16) in the United Kingdom. The project seeks to develop an appreciation of the: boundless fascination of the natural world; knowledge, skills, and expertise possessed by men/women everywhere;…
Presents an annotated bibliography that provides Web sites focusing on the U.S. homefront during World War II. Covers various topics such as the homefront, Japanese Americans, women during World War II, posters, and African Americans. Includes lesson plan sources and a list of additional resources. (CMK)
Jones, Phillip W.
The impact on educational analysis of mainstream international relations (IR) theories is yet to realize its full potential. The problem of education in relation to the construction of world order is considered in relation to core developments in IR theory since the Second World War. In particular, the global architecture of education is seen as a…
Dunn, Ross E.
In the arenas where the two world histories have taken shape, educators vigorously debate among themselves intellectual, pedagogical, and policy issues surrounding world history as a school subject. The people in each arena tend to share, despite internal disagreements, a common set of premises and assumptions for ordering the discussion of world…
Ott, G.; Schilling, H.D.
After making some general remarks about goals, tasks, and works of the World Energy Conference the topics and the frame of the 11th World Energy Conference which will take place in Munich from 8th to 12th September 1980 are outlined. This conference is held under the general topic 'energy for our world' and deals with the reciprocal relation between energy supply, environment, and society. The main part of the publication presented here is the German version of the most important sections of the investigation 'World Energy-Looking Ahead to 2020' by the Conservation Commission (CC) of the World Energy Conference. Added to this is the German original brief version of a report by the Mining-Research Company (Bergbau-Forschung GmbH) to the CC which deals with the estimation of the world's coal resources and their future availability. This report was presented on the 10th World Energy Conference in Istanbul together with the corresponding reports concerning the other energy sources. Finally, an introduction to the technical programme for the 11th World Energy Conference 1980 is given. (UA) [de
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to illustrate discourses on globalisation and world society and to disclose the commonalities and differences of both scientific debates. In particular, it draws attention to theoretical concepts of globalisation and world society. This is considered fruitful for comprehending the complex mechanisms of…
Presentation covers world nuclear power reactors in operation, fuels used for electricity generation, electricity markets in South Australia, UK, China, Germany, US, Vietnam, and the French nuclear reactor fleet. Also global perspective of world uranium supply and demand, resources, costs and production, types of new generation nuclear reactors, hydrogen economy and Generation IV reactors.
Jones, Natalie; Hughes, Wyn
This unit, developed by the Third World Science Project, is designed to add a multicultural element to existing science syllabi (for students aged 11-16) in the United Kingdom. The project seeks to develop an appreciation of the: boundless fascination of the natural world; knowledge, skills, and expertise possessed by men/women everywhere;…
XU, Yi; van Leeuwen, Bas
Combining the sectoral accounting method of the System of National Accounts (SNA) with new statistical materials from the United Nations, as well as historical research into various countries around the world, this paper arrives at an estimate of value added of Chinese and world industries between
Reviews the current state of World English. Subjects addressed include standard accents and dialects, prejudicial attitudes toward nonstandard "local" usages, the use of English as the language of diplomacy, American influences on the language, and the fracturing of English in non-English-speaking countries around the world. (17 references) (JL)
Beegle, Amy C.
As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…
Beegle, Amy C.
Access to world music resources such as videos and sound recordings have increased with the advent of YouTube and the efforts of music educators working closely with ethnomusicologists to provide more detailed visual and audio information about various musical practices. This column discusses some world music resources available for music…
The ubiquity of large virtual worlds and their growing complexity in computer graphics require efficient representations. This means that we need smart solutions for the underlying storage of these complex environments, but also for their visualization. How the virtual world is best stored and how
The major health problems in developing countries are associated with poverty, lack of food, poor sanitation, hygiene and high population growth. Malaria and schistosomiasis have increased along with more frequent use of large scale irrigation schemes. During recent decades some countries have managed to control the communicable diseases. However, new health problems have developed, often as a result of environmental degradation and uncontrolled population growth. Urbanization and industrialization are closely related to, and often cause pollution, ecological imbalances and occupational health problems. Indoor air pollution is a neglected problem. Health workers in third world must identify problems and seek solutions by applying epidemiological principles. National and international cooperation are both needed to cope with the problems.
Carlsen, Hjalmar Alexander Bang; Birkbak, Andreas
as a self-justifying ordering of the world. Drawing on the pragmatist sociology of Boltanski and Thévenot, we examine Edgerank as not just a hidden logic, but a rhetor that actively constructs a rhetorical commonplace that can be drawn upon in order to justify the evaluations produced by the algorithm. We...... marketing blogs about how to handle the algorithm in practice. Based on these events, we construct an ‘internalistic’ account of the rhetoric of Edgerank, opening for an exploration of its moral grammar and the world or dwelling place it assumes and enacts. We find that the world of Edgerank is ordered...... according to recent engagement, which means it has affinities with what Boltanski and Chiapello have termed the connectionist world. At the same time, the world of Edgerank is marked by a tension between authenticity and automation that is a result of the algorithmic standardization of relations...
Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.
This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.
This discussion outlines and clarifies the dimensions of the world's current food-population balance and examines likely future changes in this balance over the next 20 years. The 1st section summarizes the contemporary world demographic situation in the early 1980s, focusing on regional differences in patterns of population growth and the significant food shortages in the developing countries. A subsequent section considers the outlook for population growth up to the year 2000 with particular reference to the most recent UN population projects. The discussion of food production and supply includes some specific comments on the situation in Indonesia. The world's population in 1983 has been estimated at 4677 million. It will reach 5 billion in the next 5 years. The countries which can least afford it are growing the fastest. These countries will account for 79% of the world's population in 2000 and 83% by 2020. Fertility in the less developed countries (LDCs) is twice that of more developed countries, with women in the former group having an average of around 4.5 children and in the latter, 1.9. The substantial declines in fertility in many countries are not fully reflected in declines in population growth and natural increase rates. This is because of major improvements which have occurred in mortality. During recent decades there has been a marked increase in world food production. In the developed countries increases in food production have continued at more than twice those for population, but this was not the case in the less developed countries where the margin narrowed during the 1950s and 1960s until in the early 1970s population was increasing at a slightly faster rate overall than was food production. Food crisis situations continue to occur with disturbing frequency in several regions. Seasonal, regional, and national variations in food shortages are not the only dimensions to food-population imbalances. Within nations there is inequality in access to
Ferris, Todd P
... 2.0.0, in an effort to provide modeling methodologies for a single simulation tool capable of exploring the complex world of urban cultural geographies undergoing Stability Operations in an irregular warfare (IW) environment...
Blüthgen, Nico; Simons, Nadja K; Jung, Kirsten; Prati, Daniel; Renner, Swen C; Boch, Steffen; Fischer, Markus; Hölzel, Norbert; Klaus, Valentin H; Kleinebecker, Till; Tschapka, Marco; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Gossner, Martin M
Human land use may detrimentally affect biodiversity, yet long-term stability of species communities is vital for maintaining ecosystem functioning. Community stability can be achieved by higher species diversity (portfolio effect), higher asynchrony across species (insurance hypothesis) and higher abundance of populations. However, the relative importance of these stabilizing pathways and whether they interact with land use in real-world ecosystems is unknown. We monitored inter-annual fluctuations of 2,671 plant, arthropod, bird and bat species in 300 sites from three regions. Arthropods show 2.0-fold and birds 3.7-fold higher community fluctuations in grasslands than in forests, suggesting a negative impact of forest conversion. Land-use intensity in forests has a negative net impact on stability of bats and in grasslands on birds. Our findings demonstrate that asynchrony across species--much more than species diversity alone--is the main driver of variation in stability across sites and requires more attention in sustainable management.
Competing bimodal coalitions among a group of actors are discussed. First, a model from political sciences is revisited. Most of the model statements are found not to be contained in the model. Second, a new coalition model is built. It accounts for local versus global alignment with respect to the joining of a coalition. The existence of two competing world coalitions is found to yield one unique stable distribution of actors. On the opposite a unique world leadership allows the emergence of unstable relationships. In parallel to regular actors which have a clear coalition choice, “neutral”, “frustrated” and “risky” actors are produced. The cold war organisation after world war II is shown to be rather stable. The emergence of a fragmentation process from eastern group disappearance is explained as well as continuing western group stability. Some hints are obtained about possible policies to stabilize world nation relationships. European construction is analyzed with respect to European stability. Chinese stability is also discussed.
Bogomolnaia, Anna; Le Breton, Michel; Savvateev, Alexei; Weber, Shlomo
In this paper we consider an urban population represented by a continuum of individuals uniformly distributed over the real line that faces a problem of location and financing of multiple public facilities. We examine three notions of stability of emerging jurisdiction: stability under unanimous consent, free mobility and core and provide a characterization of stable partitions under these notions of stability.
Full Text Available The world population reached 7 billion in 2012, which is 6 billion more than in 1800. This remarkable population growth is the result of several factors like advances in the medical, technological and public health systems resulting in the control and treatment of communicable diseases, the control of pandemics, the end of large-scale wars, improvements in living conditions and the revolutions in the field of agriculture. Because of all these factors, there has been a considerable improvement in the life expectancy of human beings. There is also an alarming reduction in fertility rates. The combination of declining fertility rate and augmented life expectancies has led to a change in the demographics of the population with the strata of older individuals growing faster than the younger individuals. The aging of populations is poised to become the next global public health challenge. Advances in medicine and socioeconomic development have substantially reduced mortality and morbidity rates due to infectious conditions and, to some extent, non-communicable diseases. These demographic and epidemiological changes, coupled with rapid urbanization, modernization, globalization, and accompanying changes in risk factors and lifestyles, have increased the prominence of chronic non-infective conditions. Health systems need to find effective strategies to extend health care and to respond to the needs of older adults. This review highlights the pathophysiology of aging, biological and physiological changes, impact of aging on health, epidemiological transitions, multi-morbidity in elderly and challenges for health care system.
This paper examines country-specific factors that affect the three most influential world university rankings (the Academic Ranking of World Universities, the QS World University Ranking, and the Times Higher Education World University Ranking). We run a cross sectional regression that covers 42-71 countries (depending on the ranking and data availability). We show that the position of universities from a country in the ranking is determined by the following country-specific variables: economic potential of the country, research and development expenditure, long-term political stability (freedom from war, occupation, coups and major changes in the political system), and institutional variables, including government effectiveness.
Full Text Available As energy is the main “fuel” for social and economic development and since energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to have access to reliable and accurate data in an user-friendly format. The World Energy Council (WEC has for decades been a pioneer in the field of energy resources and every three years publishes its flagship report Survey of Energy Resources. A commented analysis in the light of latest data summarized in such a report, World Energy Resources (WER 2013, is presented together with the evolution of the world energy resources over the last twenty years.
Clerici, A.; Alimonti, G.
As energy is the main "fuel" for social and economic development and since energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to have access to reliable and accurate data in an user-friendly format. The World Energy Council (WEC) has for decades been a pioneer in the field of energy resources and every three years publishes its flagship report Survey of Energy Resources. A commented analysis in the light of latest data summarized in such a report, World Energy Resources (WER) 2013, is presented together with the evolution of the world energy resources over the last twenty years.
Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.
In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy
James E. Rauch; Scott Kostyshak
Given the attention currently focused on the Arab world in part as a result of adjustments in U.S. foreign policy, a fresh look at Arab socioeconomic performance is in order. The Arab world is defined by language rather than ethnicity. The League of Arab States, formed in 1945, consists of all countries in which (a dialect of) Arabic is the spoken language of the majority. It is useful to compare the human development diversity of the Arab world to that of Latin America, another vast geograph...
Full Text Available Financial stability inside the European Monetary Union (EMU is a trendy topic in most developed countries around the world. From the moment the EMU was brought to life, there was much speculation about its imperfections, inadequate management, and vulnerability. Some of them have turned out to be true, while others have been proved invalid. Nevertheless, the debt crisis has demonstrated inadequacies in the EMU’s structure and proved that a higher degree of integration is necessary in order to guarantee the robustness of the common currency and fully utilize its potential.
Prahalad, C K; Hammond, Allen
By stimulating commerce and development at the bottom of the economic pyramid, multi-nationals could radically improve the lives of billions of people and help create a more stable, less dangerous world. Achieving this goal does not require MNCs to spearhead global social-development initiatives for charitable purposes. They need only act in their own self-interest. How? The authors lay out the business case for entering the world's poorest markets. Fully 65% of the world's population earns less than $2,000 per year--that's 4 billion people. But despite the vastness of this market, it remains largely untapped. The reluctance to invest is easy to understand, but it is, by and large, based on outdated assumptions of the developing world. While individual incomes may be low, the aggregate buying power of poor communities is actually quite large, representing a substantial market in many countries for what some might consider luxury goods like satellite television and phone services. Prices, and margins, are often much higher in poor neighborhoods than in their middle-class counterparts. And new technologies are already steadily reducing the effects of corruption, illiteracy, inadequate infrastructure, and other such barriers. Because these markets are in the earliest stages of economic development, revenue growth for multi-nationals entering them can be extremely rapid. MNCs can also lower costs, not only through low-cost labor but by transferring operating efficiencies and innovations developed to serve their existing operations. Certainly, succeeding in such markets requires MNCs to think creatively. The biggest change, though, has to come from executives: Unless business leaders confront their own preconceptions--particularly about the value of high-volume, low-margin businesses--companies are unlikely to master the challenges or reap the rewards of these developing markets.
Hein, A. M.; Pak, M.; Putz, D.; Buhler, C.; Reiss, P.
A world ship is a concept for manned interstellar flight. It is a huge, self-contained and self-sustained interstellar vehicle. It travels at a fraction of a per cent of the speed of light and needs several centuries to reach its target star system. The well- known world ship concept by Alan Bond and Anthony Martin was intended to show its principal feasibility. However, several important issues haven't been addressed so far: the relationship between crew size and robustness of knowledge transfer, reliability, and alternative mission architectures. This paper addresses these gaps. Furthermore, it gives an update on target star system choice, and develops possible mission architectures. The derived conclusions are: a large population size leads to robust knowledge transfer and cultural adaptation. These processes can be improved by new technologies. World ship reliability depends on the availability of an automatic repair system, as in the case of the Daedalus probe. Star systems with habitable planets are probably farther away than systems with enough resources to construct space colonies. Therefore, missions to habitable planets have longer trip times and have a higher risk of mission failure. On the other hand, the risk of constructing colonies is higher than to establish an initial settlement on a habitable planet. Mission architectures with precursor probes have the potential to significantly reduce trip and colonization risk without being significantly more costly than architectures without. In summary world ships remain an interesting concept, although they require a space colony-based civilization within our own solar system before becoming feasible.
The world balance of population and resources is the internationally accepted goal for the 20th century. There is agreement that the requirements are elimination of absolute poverty, the legitimate satisfaction of the majority population, reduction in the environmental cost of development, fairer distribution of the benefits of development, slower population growth, and more balanced distribution within and between countries. A profile is given for 15 development and population measures for the Philippines. In the Philippines over 50% of the population lives in poverty, and the numbers are increasing. Unemployment is high at 10.6% in 1991, and underemployment is estimated to be 31.6%. Limited employment opportunities are push factors for international labor migration, which has swelled to over 600,000 workers. The Philippines is losing forest at the rate of about 119,000 hectares per year, which would result in a total loss of forests in 12 years. The loss of biodiversity is apparent. Marine resources are being depleted, and average farm size per rural person is 0.38 hectares. The average family of 6 persons must produce food on only 2.28 hectares. The annual population growth rate is 2.3%, and the rate of food production is only 1%. Metro Manila is now the 18th largest urban area in the world. Air pollution is very high, and the water supply is polluted with salt. 14% of children under 6 years old are severely underweight. Iron deficiency anemia affects 60% of children 1-6 years old and 40% of children 7-12 years old. 3.5 million children are working, and 20,000 are child prostitutes. 85,000 street children live in 17 cities. Maternal mortality is estimated at 1600 women each year, and 24% of deaths in 78 hospitals were due to induced abortion. About 2.7 million women have unmet need for family planning, and 1.8 million desire family planning but are not using any method.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Glacier Inventory (WGI) contains information for over 130,000 glaciers. Inventory parameters include geographic location, area, length, orientation,...
Brown, Lester R.
Cites evidence to support the theory that the world food shortage will become a chronic condition. Describes the depletion of surplus food supplies and the increasing dependence on North America for food supplies. (MLH)
.... The World Factbook is prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency for the use of US Government officials, and the style, format, coverage, and content are designed to meet their specific requirements...
The World Factbook is prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency for the use of US Government officials, and the style, format, coverage, and content are designed to meet their specific requirements...
Mitchell, Allee J.
The live and taped portions of a speech concerning human needs, particularly the need to find one's own identity, and the responsibility of educators in helping young children answer the question "who in the world am I?" are presented. (KM)
Sachs, J.; Remans, R.; Smukler, S.; Winowiecki, L.; Andelman, S.J.; Cassman, K.G.; Castle, D.; DeFries, R.; Denning, G.; Fanzo, J.; Jackson, L.E.; Leemans, R.; Lehman, J.; Milder, J.S.; Naeem, S.; Nziguheba, G.; Palm, C.A.; Pingali, P.L.; Reganold, J.P.; Richter, D.D.; Scherr, S.J.; Sircely, J.; Sullivan, C.; Tomich, T.P.; Sanchez, P.A.
To feed the world without further damaging the planet, Jeffrey Sachs and 24 food-system experts call for a global data collection and dissemination network to track the myriad impacts of different farming practices.
Sachs, Jeffrey; Remans, Roseline; Smukler, Sean; Winowiecki, Leigh; Andelman, Sandy J; Cassman, Kenneth G; Castle, David; DeFries, Ruth; Denning, Glenn; Fanzo, Jessica; Jackson, Louise E; Leemans, Rik; Lehmann, Johannes; Milder, Jeffrey C; Naeem, Shahid; Nziguheba, Generose; Palm, Cheryl A; Pingali, Prabhu L; Reganold, John P; Richter, Daniel D; Scherr, Sara J; Sircely, Jason; Sullivan, Clare; Tomich, Thomas P; Sanchez, Pedro A
To feed the world without further damaging the planet, Jeffrey Sachs and 24 foodsystem experts call for a global data collection and dissemination network to track the myriad impacts of different farming practices.
According to CERN, our understanding of the Universe is about the change. Meet the Imperial alumni and staff who are involved in CERN's Large Hadron Collider, the world's biggest experiment. (3 pages)
Full Text Available Globalization became more and more prominent during the last decades. There is no way to argue that globalization led to more interconnected economies, facilitating the communication and the collaboration around the world. But where is this going? Doesglobalization mean uniformity or diversity? As the world begins to resemble more, the people are trying to distinguish between them more, which can exacerbate nationalistic feeling. Friedman argues that globalization made the world smaller and flatter, allowing all countries to take chance of the available opportunities equally. But is this really true? Although politic and cultural factors can stand in front of a really flat world, what is the key for Chinese and Indian success and which are theirs perspectives?
Full Text Available Sometimes a player will stray from the path described by a game, moving into new spaces, developing new possible modes of interaction, and often discovering the rougher edges of the game world, where physics models break down, textures become incongruous, and the pieces don’t quite fit together. Gameplay that seeks out these spaces and these phenomena, that searches for such clues to the underlying construction of the virtual environment, is a kind of virtual-world naturalism, at once a return to an investigative urge that has been subsumed to the exhaustive mapping and description of the real world and a form of resistance to the very idea of pre-defined paths of action, of externally imposed limits, in virtual worlds as well as in our own.
Esilinastus katastroofifilm "World Trade Center" : stsenarist Andrea Berloff : režissöör Oliver Stone : kunstnik Jan Roelfs : osades Nicholas Cage, Michael Pena, Stephen Dorff jpt : Ameerika Ühendriigid 2006. Ka filmi prototüüpidest
The largest privately funded solar power installation in the world is at the Florida Walt Disney World. It is the Universe of Energy exhibit at the Experimental Prototype Community of the World. The Universe of Energy shows the development and exploitation of energy sources and how energy is used and includes a recreation of the primeval world from which coal and oil deposits were formed. Visitors travel through two giant theatres in electrically powered cars. Most of the ride system is powered by a solar cell array on the roof of the building. The array is composed of 2,200 modules each made up of 36 cells and can generate 70kW of DC power which is fed through an inverter to convert it to AC. (UK)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...
stage renal disease (ESRD)) worldwide. What was an experimental, risky and .... of deceased and living donor kidney transplants in World Health Organization member states in 2010, correlated with Human Development Index.
Full Text Available Overcoming the productivity challenge is the main benefit of the 2014 World Cup for Brazilian people. The sustainable development of our cultural tourism industry will catapult the new middle class growing up rate.
J. van Zyl
Full Text Available Against the background of a changing environment in which market factors and greater world trade and competitiveness are increasingly becoming the only criteria for success, a framework for the analysis of world competitiveness is initially developed. This is followed by a discussion on the growth of productivity in agriculture, as well as an exposition of the role of agricultural research. Thirdly, price factors and the terms of trade are discussed, followed by a summary of policy implications.
Epilepsy-associated stigma in Bolivia: a community-based study among the Guarani population: an International League Against Epilepsy/International Bureau for Epilepsy/World Health Organization Global Campaign Against Epilepsy Regional Project.
Bruno, Elisa; Bartoloni, Alessandro; Sofia, Vito; Rafael, Florentina; Magnelli, Donata; Padilla, Sandra; Quattrocchi, Graziella; Bartalesi, Filippo; Segundo, Higinio; Zappia, Mario; Preux, Pierre-Marie; Nicoletti, Alessandra
Epilepsy is associated with a significant burden of social stigma that appears to be influenced by psychosocial and cultural factors. Stigma has a negative effect on the management of people with epilepsy (PWE), representing one of the major factors that contribute to the burden of epilepsy. To assess stigma perception among the Guarani population, one hundred thirty-two people living in Guaraní communities in Bolivia were invited to complete the Stigma Scale of Epilepsy questionnaire. The main determinants of stigma identified were: the fear linked to loss of control, the feelings of sadness and pity toward PWE, the difficulties faced by PWE in the professional and relationship fields, the level of education and type of seizure. Our study pointed out that, in this population, PWE face difficulties in everyday life because of epilepsy-associated stigma and the results attest to the importance of promoting community-based educational programs aimed at reducing the stigmatization process. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Laurence, S; Durand, E; Thomas, E; Chappuis, M; Corty, J F
To document eating practices and socio-economic profiles of patients seen in the social and medical healthcare centres (CASOs in its French acronym) run by Doctors of the World (Médecins du Monde, MdM) in France and evaluate their nutritional and health status. The survey was carried out between April and May 2014 in seven CASOs in France. All the patients attending MdM clinics were given a nutrition and health questionnaire. Their anthropometric measurements were taken on site. 77.7% of the households surveyed were food insecure due to constrained resources. On average, the patients interviewed declared spending €2.5 per person per day on food. A total of 46.3% of adults declared not having eaten for a whole day at least once in the month preceding the survey. One third of the patients declared having lost weight over the last two weeks. A chronic pathology was diagnosed in more than one in two patients; 19% were obese and 34% were overweight. Constrained resources lead people living in very precarious conditions to eat without adequate nutrition, which could have consequences for their health, such as diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Freitag, Simone; Braehler, Elmar; Schmidt, Silke; Glaesmer, Heide
Long-term effects of World War II experiences affect psychological and physical health in aged adults. Forced displacement as a traumatic event is associated with increased psychological burden even after several decades. This study investigates the contribution of forced displacement as a predictor for mental health disorders and adds the aspect of health-related quality of life (QoL). A sample of 1,659 German older adults aged 60-85 years was drawn from a representative survey. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), somatoform symptoms, depressive syndromes, and health-related QoL were assessed as outcome variables. Chi-square and t-test statistics examined differences between displaced and non-displaced people. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the impact of forced displacement on mental health disorders and QoL. Displaced people reported higher levels of PTSD, depressive and somatoform symptoms, and lower levels of health-related QoL. Displacement significantly predicted PTSD and somatoform symptoms in late life, but not depressive disorders. Health-related QoL was predicted by forced displacement and socio-demographic variables. Forced displacement is associated with an elevated risk for PTSD and somatoform symptoms and lowered health-related QoL in aged adults. Its unique impact declines after including socio-demographic variables. Long-term consequences of forced displacement need further investigations and should include positive aspects in terms of resilience and protective coping strategies.
Houben, G.; Bilsen, J. van; Blom, M.; Kruizinga, A.; Verhoeckx, K.
Food allergy is one of the most common health disorders in the western world. It affects about three per cent of the total population. Food allergy is potentially lethal, and its health impact is higher than that posed by all known chemicals and microbes in food. It is also higher than that of many
Small-world networks (SWN) are relevant to biological systems. We study the dynamics of the Bak-Sneppen (BS) model on small-world network, including the concepts of extremal dynamics, multiobjective optimization and coherent noise. We find that the small-world structure stabilizes the system. Also, it is more realistic to augment the Bak-Sneppen model by these concepts. (author)
Small-world networks (SWN) are relevant to biological systems. We study the dynamics of the Bak-Sneppen (BS) model on small-world network, including the concepts of extremal dynamics, multiobjective optimization and coherent noise. We find that the small-world structure stabilizes the system. Also, it is more realistic to augment the Bak-Sneppen model by these concepts
Chaves, Paulo B; Alvarenga, Clara S; Possamai, Carla de B; Dias, Luiz G; Boubli, Jean P; Strier, Karen B; Mendes, Sérgio L; Fagundes, Valéria
Social, ecological, and historical processes affect the genetic structure of primate populations, and therefore have key implications for the conservation of endangered species. The northern muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus) is a critically endangered New World monkey and a flagship species for the conservation of the Atlantic Forest hotspot. Yet, like other neotropical primates, little is known about its population history and the genetic structure of remnant populations. We analyzed the mitochondrial DNA control region of 152 northern muriquis, or 17.6% of the 864 northern muriquis from 8 of the 12 known extant populations and found no evidence of phylogeographic partitions or past population shrinkage/expansion. Bayesian and classic analyses show that this finding may be attributed to the joint contribution of female-biased dispersal, demographic stability, and a relatively large historic population size. Past population stability is consistent with a central Atlantic Forest Pleistocene refuge. In addition, the best scenario supported by an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis, significant fixation indices (Φ(ST) = 0.49, Φ(CT) = 0.24), and population-specific haplotypes, coupled with the extirpation of intermediate populations, are indicative of a recent geographic structuring of genetic diversity during the Holocene. Genetic diversity is higher in populations living in larger areas (>2,000 hectares), but it is remarkably low in the species overall (θ = 0.018). Three populations occurring in protected reserves and one fragmented population inhabiting private lands harbor 22 out of 23 haplotypes, most of which are population-exclusive, and therefore represent patchy repositories of the species' genetic diversity. We suggest that these populations be treated as discrete units for conservation management purposes.
Paulo B Chaves
Full Text Available Social, ecological, and historical processes affect the genetic structure of primate populations, and therefore have key implications for the conservation of endangered species. The northern muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus is a critically endangered New World monkey and a flagship species for the conservation of the Atlantic Forest hotspot. Yet, like other neotropical primates, little is known about its population history and the genetic structure of remnant populations. We analyzed the mitochondrial DNA control region of 152 northern muriquis, or 17.6% of the 864 northern muriquis from 8 of the 12 known extant populations and found no evidence of phylogeographic partitions or past population shrinkage/expansion. Bayesian and classic analyses show that this finding may be attributed to the joint contribution of female-biased dispersal, demographic stability, and a relatively large historic population size. Past population stability is consistent with a central Atlantic Forest Pleistocene refuge. In addition, the best scenario supported by an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis, significant fixation indices (Φ(ST = 0.49, Φ(CT = 0.24, and population-specific haplotypes, coupled with the extirpation of intermediate populations, are indicative of a recent geographic structuring of genetic diversity during the Holocene. Genetic diversity is higher in populations living in larger areas (>2,000 hectares, but it is remarkably low in the species overall (θ = 0.018. Three populations occurring in protected reserves and one fragmented population inhabiting private lands harbor 22 out of 23 haplotypes, most of which are population-exclusive, and therefore represent patchy repositories of the species' genetic diversity. We suggest that these populations be treated as discrete units for conservation management purposes.
International Energy Agency examines the evolution of world energy markets through to the year 2010. World demand for energy is expected to increase significantly through the first decade of the next century as population and real incomes rise. Demand will increase in OECD countries but growth will be strongest in non-OECD countries - particularly in China, India and the dynamic Asian economies. By 2010, OECD countries will account for less than half of total world oil consumption. On the supply side, the study projects a large increase in the role of natural gas, especially in Europe. The impacts of these and other supply and demand developments on energy use patterns will be significant. As the world enters the 21st century, electricity will become an increasingly important energy form. How electricity is generated, as well as how transportation systems develop, will affect how successful countries will be in meeting their energy needs and achieving their environmental objectives. 16 figs., 24 tabs.
Dr. Halfdan Mahler, former Secretary-General of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, gave this speech on the occasion of the acceptance of the UN Population Award. Dr. Mahler states that the hope for the future rests with the ability of people to make women productive as well as reproductive in social and economic development. If population efforts are successful, our children and grandchildren will still inherit a world with a population of about 10 billion, but there will be hope. Although inequalities and strains between peoples and nations will continue, the competition for scarce resources will be lessened, and women will not be trapped by absolute poverty, unwanted pregnancy, and perpetual fatigue. The price of failure is intolerable human suffering on a massive scale. Future hope is dependent on women having control over their own fertility. Currently over 50 million women still have unwanted pregnancies, and tens of millions of unwanted children are born each year. Women, men, and youth have a right to make free, informed and responsible choices regarding their sexual and reproductive lives. Unacceptable practices which must be stopped include female genital mutilation, premature marriage, and the sale of women into prostitution. International principles must be translated into actions that empower women to exercise their rights. Governments have a responsibility to provide women with information, education, and services. Governments must exercise political will. Before the year 2000 about 200-300 million couples and individuals should be given access to family planning information and modern contraceptive methods. Many of the population with unmet need are hard to reach and are marginalized in slums and rural squalor. A coordinated effort with private and nongovernmental organizations will be needed in the effort to reach this population. Opposition will be imposed by men at the expense of women. Anti-women ideology is masked as religion or
According to Einstein (1934) the supreme task of the theoretical physicist is to search for those most general and elementary laws from which the world picture can be obtained by pure deduction. However, there is no logical way leading to the elementary laws but only intuition and sound appraisal of general experience. Einstein here takes sides in the perennial dispute about induction or deduction as the principal method of science. In this paper the author illustrates the I-could-have-told-you-so story of deduction in two examples. The one describes a simple game of chance; it is quite trivial but, just because of its simplicity, exposes essential points in the raw and thereby offers an important lesson about the ultimate untenability of the doctrine of determinism. The other example deals with the sophisticated game of chance known as quantum mechanics. (Auth.)
Santana, Jonathan; Fregel, Rosa; Lightfoot, Emma; Morales, Jacob; Alamón, Martha; Guillén, José; Moreno, Marco; Rodríguez, Amelia
The Canary Islands are considered one of the first places where Atlantic slave plantations with labourers of African origin were established, during the 15th century AD. In Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain), a unique cemetery dated to the 15th and 17th centuries was discovered adjacent to an ancient sugar plantation with funerary practices that could be related to enslaved people. In this article, we investigate the origin and possible birthplace of each individual buried in this cemetery, as well as the identity and social status of these people. The sample consists of 14 individuals radiocarbon dated to the 15th and 17th centuries AD. We have employed several methods, including the analysis of ancient human DNA, stable isotopes, and skeletal markers of physical activity. 1) the funerary practices indicate a set of rituals not previously recorded in the Canary Islands; 2) genetic data show that some people buried in the cemetery could have North-African and sub-Saharan African lineages; 3) isotopic results suggest that some individuals were born outside Gran Canaria; and 4) markers of physical activity show a pattern of labour involving high levels of effort. This set of evidence, along with information from historical sources, suggests that Finca Clavijo was a cemetery for a multiethnic marginalized population that had being likely enslaved. Results also indicate that this population kept practicing non-Christian rituals well into the 17th century. We propose that this was possible because the location of the Canaries, far from mainland Spain and the control of the Spanish Crown, allowed the emergence of a new society with multicultural origins that was more tolerant to foreign rituals and syncretism. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Haywood, Alison; Glass, Beverley D
Although the world's population is ageing and as a result of this an increasing number of patients are experiencing difficulty in swallowing, there remains a lack of commercially available oral liquids for both these older and paediatric patients. This presents a problem to health care professionals, especially the pharmacist in practice, who is often required to provide a solution for these patients by preparing oral liquids extemporaneously from commercially available products. Preparation of these oral liquids is challenging, both due to the lack of pharmacopoeial and stability-indicating formulae and the fact that their stability is not only determined by the active pharmaceutical ingredient, but also the ability of excipients from the commercial product to interact with each other and the active pharmaceutical ingredient. This increases the complexity of the stability considerations to be taken into account within these oral liquids, highlighting the number of parameters to be considered in the extemporaneous preparation of oral liquids. This paper presents new evidence on the stability of 42 oral liquids prepared from commercially available products, reported on in the literature since the previous review published in 2006. However, unlike the previous review where the stability concerns in 7.2% of the extemporaneously prepared oral liquids were mainly due to interaction between the active pharmaceutical ingredients and the excipients in the commercial product, most of these stability considerations have been recognised and this has resulted in the authors proposing solutions to these problems prior to the extemporaneous preparation of the oral liquid. As such this paper also focuses on the increased level of research that has been undertaken to solve previous issues related to stability, especially in terms of the use of commercial products, which is common practice in the extemporaneous preparation of oral liquids.
Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.
This year the Croatian Energy Society is organizing its 14. Forum. For this occasion we chose the topic Energy perspectives today and tomorrow, World-Europe-Croatia, which in recent years is increasingly in the focus of interest not only of energy experts but of broad public as well. Namely, the end of the 20. and beginning of the 21st century saw the changes that, in many ways, influenced the energy market development. Views on the future and energy supply stability as they were in the era of divisions (free and communist world, developed and undeveloped world) must be substantially and urgently changed, because the geopolitical landscape of the world has been changing as well as development dynamics of countries and parts of continents. For Europe (Croatia included), which has deficit of primary energy sources and depends on energy import, reliability, availability security and economy of imported energy are key assumptions of sustainable economic and ecological development. The Forum shall discuss the following issues, which strongly influence or will influence the energy perspectives in the next 50 years: Reserves and potentials (size, geo-allocation of resources, transport possibilities, renewable sources); Technologies (exploitation, production, transport, distribution, consumption: appliances, consumers, and processes); Economic development and energy demand (development levels, richness and poverty, price of energy and social influence, energy efficiency); Environmental protection (Kyoto Protocol, legislation, economic capacities, nuclear energy); Energy trade liberalization (market development, restructuring, common legislation, privatization); Security of supply (local, European and global level); Population growth; Political changes and conflicts, military conflicts, terrorism. World Energy Council (WEC) initiated work on global study on energy development: Energy Scenario to 2050. The energy community around the world is equally interested in this study
The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet
Full Text Available This paper evaluates the relationship between hegemony and the stability of the world economy in a time in history when the hegemony of the United States is more and more questioned. The theory of hegemonic stability - firstly launched by Charles Kindleberger and further developed by Robert Gilpin, Stephen Krasner and Robert Keohane, states that for an international system of trade and finance to function smoothly there must be a hegemon. According to Keohane, a hegemon is a state that possesses the following characteristics: the ability to create, enforce and maintain international norms; the will to do it; and the decisive domination in the economic, technological and military fields. During the last two centuries the world experienced the hegemony of two powers: Great Britain and the United States, with their good and bad features. These two hegemonies – when exercised, demonstrated the relationship between hegemony and the stability of the world economy. Now, at the beginning of a new century, the hegemony of the United States seems to be questioned and a future posthegemonic world system is still under theoretical debate. In this situation is it wise for the world politicians to hurry the dethroning of the hegemon? This paper argues for the strengthening of the cooperation - mainly between the United States and the European Union, and for the responsible action of all the states in order to make a smooth and orderly transition to a new world system. The lack of cooperation could lead to disorders, to the revival of the protectionist attitude of the United States, and finally to a worsening of the world economy.
Connolly, T.J.; Hansen, U.; Jaek, W.; Beckurts, K.H.
In examing the world nuclear energy paths, the following assumptions were adopted: the world economy will grow somewhat more slowly than in the past, leading to reductions in electricity demand growth rates; national and international political impediments to the deployment of nuclear power will gradually disappear over the next few years; further development of nuclear power will proceed steadily, without serious interruption but with realistic lead times for the introduction of advanced technologies. Given these assumptions, this paper attempts a study of possible world nuclear energy developments, disaggregated on a regional and national basis. The scenario technique was used and a few alternative fuel-cycle scenarios were developed. Each is an internally consistent model of technically and economically feasible paths to the further development of nuclear power in an aggregate of individual countries and regions of the world. The main purpose of this modeling exercise was to gain some insight into the probable international locations of reactors and other nuclear facilities, the future requirements for uranium and for fuel-cycle services, and the problems of spent-fuel storage and waste management. The study also presents an assessment of the role that nuclear power might actually play in meeting future world energy demand
The Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF) used every year to summarize a trend survey on the private nuclear power plants in the world in a shape of the 'Developmental trends on nuclear power plants in the world'. In this report, some data at the end of 1999 was made up on bases of answers on questionnaires from 72 electric companies in 31 nations and regions in the world by JAIF. This report is comprised of 19 items, and contains generating capacity of the plants; current status of Japan; trends of generating capacity of operating the plants, the plant orders and generating capacity of the plants; world nuclear capacity by reactor type; location of the plants; the plants in the world; and so forth. And, it also has some survey results on the 'Liberalization of electric power markets and nuclear power generation' such as some 70% of respondents in nuclear power for future option, gas-thermal power seen as power source with most to gain from liberalization, merits on nuclear power generation (environmental considerations and supply stability), most commonly voiced concern about new plant orders in poor economy, and so forth. (G.K.)
Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.
The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.
Full Text Available The exchange of genetic information among coral reefs, through the transport of larvae, is critical to the function of Australia's Great Barrier Reef because it influences recruitment rates and resilience to disturbance. For many species the genetic composition is not homogeneous and is determined, in part, by the character of the complex dispersal pathways that connect the populations situated on each coral reef. One method of measuring these genetic connections is to examine the microsatellite composition of individual corals and then statistically compare populations across the region. We use these connection strengths, derived from a population similarity measure, to create complex networks to describe and analyse the genetic exchange of the brooding coral, Seriatopora hystrix. The network, based on determining the putative parental origin of individual coral colonies, involved sampling 2163 colonies from 47 collection sites and examining 10 microsatellites. A dispersal network was created from the genetic distance DLR values that measure the genetic similarity of each population (defined by the local sampling effort to every other sampled population based on the microsatellite composition. Graph theory methods show that this network exhibited infrequent long distance links and population clustering which is commonly referred to as small world topology. Comparison with a hydrodynamic based network indicates that the genetic population network topology is similar. This approach shows the genetic structure of the S. hystrix coral follows a small world pattern which supports the results derived from previous hydrodynamic modelling.
Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.
In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy.
Levin, Frank S
The ideas and phenomena of the quantum world are strikingly unlike those encountered in our visual world. Surfing the Quantum World shows why and how this is so. It does this via a historical review and a gentle introduction to the fundamental principles of quantum theory, whose core concepts and symbolic representations are used to explain not only "ordinary" microscopic phenomena like the properties of the hydrogen atom and the structure of the Periodic Table of the Elements, but also a variety of mind-bending phenomena. Readers will learn that particles such as electrons and photons can behave like waves, allowing them to be in two places simultaneously, why white dwarf and neutron stars are gigantic quantum objects, how the maximum height of mountains has a quantum basis, and why quantum objects can tunnel through seemingly impenetrable barriers. Included among the various interpretational issues addressed is whether Schrodinger's cat is ever both dead and alive.
Sahay, Anurag; Sengupta, Gautam
Five dimensional neutral rotating black rings are described from a Randall-Sundrum brane world perspective in the bulk black string framework. To this end we consider a rotating black string extension of a five dimensional black ring into the bulk of a six dimensional Randall-Sundrum brane world with a single four brane. The bulk solution intercepts the four brane in a five dimensional black ring with the usual curvature singularity on the brane. The bulk geodesics restricted to the plane of rotation of the black ring are constructed and their projections on the four brane match with the usual black ring geodesics restricted to the same plane. The asymptotic nature of the bulk geodesics are elucidated with reference to a bulk singularity at the AdS horizon. We further discuss the description of a brane world black ring as a limit of a boosted bulk black 2 brane with periodic identification
The World Energy Insight 2011 is the official publication of the World Energy Council. It includes interviews, articles and case studies from a distinguished panel of World Energy Council Officers, CEOs, government ministers, academics and opinion formers from all areas of the energy sector and provides perspectives from around the globe. Government, industry and NGO's offer both policy and technology perspectives. The insights within this publication add to the work that WEC is doing to provide the forum for energy leaders, along with the on-going WEC studies and programmes on Energy Policies, 2050 Energy Scenarios, Energy Resources & Technologies, Energy for Urban Innovation, Rules Of Energy Trade and Global Energy Access.
Emilia Mary Bălan
Full Text Available Grain is part of agricultural commodities and is of utmost importance for world agriculture,since it is the essential element of food and animal feed. Against this background, grain trade among countries of the world is dynamic and represents about 10% of global trade in food products.This article examines global grain trade both in terms of quantitative and qualitative developments, and highlights the most important competitor countries in this sector. It also details the patterns of grain trade for the world's main exporters and importers of such commodities.Two distinct sections of the research relate to the evolution of the primary grain quotations(wheat, corn, barley, rice and sorghum at the most representative international agricultural commodities markets (Chicago Board of Trade, based on a comprehensive statistical analysis, and the short-term forecasts for global grain trade, respectively.
Vilslev, Annette Thorsen
The PhD dissertation compares the literary theory and novels of modern Japanese writer Natsume Sōseki. It reads Sōseki’s Theory of Literature (2009, Bungakuron, 1907) as an inherently comparative and interdisciplinary approach to theorizing feelings in world literature. More broadly, the disserta......The PhD dissertation compares the literary theory and novels of modern Japanese writer Natsume Sōseki. It reads Sōseki’s Theory of Literature (2009, Bungakuron, 1907) as an inherently comparative and interdisciplinary approach to theorizing feelings in world literature. More broadly......, the dissertation investigates the critical negotiation of the novel as a travelling genre in Japan in the beginning of the 20th century, and, more specifically, Sōseki’s work in relation to world literature and affect theory. Sōseki’s work is highly influential in Japan and East Asia, and his novels widely...
Fussmann, Katarina E.; Schwarzmüller, Florian; Brose, Ulrich; Jousset, Alexandre; Rall, Björn C.
That species’ biological rates including metabolism, growth and feeding scale with temperature is well established from warming experiments. The interactive influence of these changes on population dynamics, however, remains uncertain. As a result, uncertainty about ecological stability in response under warming remains correspondingly high. In previous studies, severe consumer extinction waves in warmed microcosms were explained in terms of warming-induced destabilization of population oscillations. Here, we show that warming stabilizes predator-prey dynamics at the risk of predator extinction. Our results are based on meta-analyses of a global database of temperature effects on metabolic and feeding rates and maximum population size that includes species of different phylogenetic groups and ecosystem types. To unravel population-level consequences we parameterized a bioenergetic predator-prey model and simulated warming effects within ecological, non-evolutionary timescales. In contrast to previous studies, we find that warming stabilized population oscillations up to a threshold temperature, which is true for most of the possible parameter combinations. Beyond the threshold level, warming caused predator extinction due to starvation. Predictions were tested in a microbial predator-prey system. Together, our results indicate a major change in how we expect climate change to alter natural ecosystems: warming should increase population stability while undermining species diversity.
Monica Das Gupta
The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...
Stability of Parallel Flows provides information pertinent to hydrodynamical stability. This book explores the stability problems that occur in various fields, including electronics, mechanics, oceanography, administration, economics, as well as naval and aeronautical engineering. Organized into two parts encompassing 10 chapters, this book starts with an overview of the general equations of a two-dimensional incompressible flow. This text then explores the stability of a laminar boundary layer and presents the equation of the inviscid approximation. Other chapters present the general equation
Full Text Available This article is based on the metaphor of “a world without surroundings “which, on one hand, can help us to understand the nature of the world that is currently being configured with the processes of globalisation, and on the other, to assess the most intelligent strategies for shaping it, in accord with the criteria of balance and justice. Our task should be, therefore, to cosmopolitise globalisation; that is, to politicise the processes with new political concepts that no longer allow the use of the old strategies of delimitation or differentiation between “Us” and “Them”, and which are demanding integrative actions.
Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past 20 years the WHO has considerably improved world mortality data. There are still shortcomings but more countries now report data and world-wide estimates are regularly made. Methods: Data about mortality have been retrieved from the WHO world database. Worldwide injury mortality estimates for 2008 as well as trends of the suicide rate from 1950 to 2009 were analysed. Results: Suicides in the world amount to 782 thousand in 2008 according to the WHO estimate, which is 1.4% of total mortality and 15% of injury mortality. The suicide rate for the world as a whole is estimated at 11.6 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male–female rate ratio of suicide is estimated to be highest in the European Region (4.0 and the lowest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (1.1. Among males the highest suicide rate in the 15–29 age group is in the SE Asian region, in the 45–59 age group in European males and for ages above 60 in the Western Pacific region. Females from SE Asia have a remarkably high suicide rate among 15–29-year-olds and from age 45 in the Western Pacific region. The leading country is currently Lithuania, with a suicide rate of 34.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. Also among males the suicide rate is the highest in Lithuania at 61.2. Among females South Korea with 22.1 is at the top of world suicide rates. Conclusions: During the past six decades, according to the WHO Japan, Hungary, and Lithuania have topped the list of world countries by suicide rate, but if the current trends continue South Korea will overtake all others in a few years. The heart of the problem of suicide mortality has shifted from Western Europe to Eastern Europe and now seems to be shifting to Asia. China and India are the biggest contributors to the absolute number of suicides in the world.
Povarov, O.A.; Tomarov, G.V.
The World geothermal congress took place in the period from 28 May up to 10 June 2000 in Japan. About 2000 men from 43 countries, including specialists in the area of developing geothermal fields, creating and operating geothermal electrical and thermal plants and various systems for the earth heat application, participated in the work of the Congress. It was noted at the Congress, that development of the geothermal power engineering in the world is characterized by the large-scale application of geothermal resources for the electrical energy generation [ru
A world-wide review of hydrocarbon processing is presented. Following a general introduction discussing issues such as the crisis in Asia, the mergers between the oil giants, the concern over carbon dioxide emissions in Europe, the expected decline in output of oil in the USA and the attraction of Latin America in terms of natural gas, the article goes on to review the situations and prospects in various parts of the world. Fifty-one countries are discussed individually in this 34-page article. The focus throughout is very much on the activities of individual companies and contracts rather than on technical details. (UK)
Henshaw, S K
This article presents current estimates of the number, rate, and proportion of abortions for all countries which make such data available. 76% of the world's population lives in countries where induced abortion is legal at least for health reasons. Abortion is legal in almost all developed countries. Most developing countries have some laws against abortion, but it is permitted at least for health reasons in the countries of 67% of the developing world's population. The other 33%--over 1 billion persons--reside mainly in subSaharan Africa, Latin America, and the most orthodox Muslim countries. By the beginning of the 20th century, abortion had been made illegal in most of the world, with rules in Africa, Asia, and Latin America similar to those in Europe and North America. Abortion legislation began to change first in a few industrialized countries prior to World War II and in Japan in 1948. Socialist European countries made abortion legal in the first trimester in the 1950s, and most of the industrialized world followed suit in the 1960s and 1970s. The worldwide trend toward relaxed abortion restrictions continues today, with governments giving varying reasons for the changes. Nearly 33 million legal abortions are estimated to be performed annually in the world, with 14 million of them in China and 11 million in the USSR. The estimated total rises to 40-60 million when illegal abortions added. On a worldwide basis some 37-55 abortions are estimated to occur for each 1000 women aged 15-44 years. There are probably 24-32 abortions per 100 pregnancies. The USSR has the highest abortion rate among developed countries, 181/1000 women aged 15-44, followed by Rumania with 91/1000, many of them illegal. The large number of abortions in some countries is due to scarcity of modern contraception. Among developing countries, China apparently has the highest rate, 62/1000 women aged 15-44. Cuba's rate is 59/1000. It is very difficult to calculate abortion rates in countries