WorldWideScience

Sample records for stability predictions applying

  1. Stability theory and transition prediction applied to a general aviation fuselage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spall, R. E.; Wie, Y.-S.

    1993-01-01

    The linear stability of a fully three-dimensional boundary layer formed over a general aviation fuselage was investigated. The location of the onset of transition was estimated using the N-factor method. The results were compared with existing experimental data and indicate N-factors of approximately 8.5 on the side of the fuselage and 3.0 near the top. Considerable crossflow existed along the side of the body, which significantly affected the unstable modes present in the boundary layer. Fair agreement was found between the predicted frequency range of linear instability modes and available experimental data concerning the spectral content of the boundary layer.

  2. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  3. Stability prediction of berm breakwater using neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Manjunath, Y.R.

    In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied to predict the stability of berm breakwaters. Four neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the stability of breakwater. Training...

  4. Stabilization of radionuclides applied in radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mielcarski, M.

    1989-01-01

    An attempt of comprehensive treatment of problems connected with the production of sealed radiation sources is made. In the introductory part of this work the basic information and definitions are contained. The classification systems currently applied are discussed. Attention was paid to the main fields of application. The methods of stabilization of radionuclides used for preparing radiation sources are discussed. The results of own investigations are presented, comprising the adsorption of some radionuclides on anodic Al 2 O 3 layers, stabilization in glazes and enamels, and the preparation of radioactive ceramics. In the adsorption investigations, these problems were considered as predominant which could form the basis for technological solutions. The results obtained allowed to establish the most favourable conditions of performing the process of stabilization by the use of this technique. In the case of radioactive enamels, the effect of glass composition on the yield of ionization has been investigated. Lowering of the content of radioactive component with simultaneous preserving the useful ionization ability was considered as being important. The mechanism of the observed increase of ionization caused by some inactive glass components is discussed. As concerns radioactive ceramics, a simplified method for preparing the ceramic core of cesium-137 sources is presented. This synthesis is based on the thermal transformation of moulded zeolite pellets into radioactive pollucite. Practical usefulness of different methods for the stabilization is discussed with emphasis given to those elaborated and applied in Poland. 131 refs., 37 figs., 20 tabs. (author)

  5. Adaptive prediction applied to seismic event detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, G.A.; Rodgers, P.W.

    1981-01-01

    Adaptive prediction was applied to the problem of detecting small seismic events in microseismic background noise. The Widrow-Hoff LMS adaptive filter used in a prediction configuration is compared with two standard seismic filters as an onset indicator. Examples demonstrate the technique's usefulness with both synthetic and actual seismic data

  6. Adaptive prediction applied to seismic event detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, G.A.; Rodgers, P.W.

    1981-09-01

    Adaptive prediction was applied to the problem of detecting small seismic events in microseismic background noise. The Widrow-Hoff LMS adaptive filter used in a prediction configuration is compared with two standard seismic filters as an onset indicator. Examples demonstrate the technique's usefulness with both synthetic and actual seismic data.

  7. Applying the methodology of Design of Experiments to stability studies: a Partial Least Squares approach for evaluation of drug stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Nika; Zakrajšek, Jure; Bohanec, Simona; Roškar, Robert; Grabnar, Iztok

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the present research is to show that the methodology of Design of Experiments can be applied to stability data evaluation, as they can be seen as multi-factor and multi-level experimental designs. Linear regression analysis is usually an approach for analyzing stability data, but multivariate statistical methods could also be used to assess drug stability during the development phase. Data from a stability study for a pharmaceutical product with hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) as an unstable drug substance was used as a case example in this paper. The design space of the stability study was modeled using Umetrics MODDE 10.1 software. We showed that a Partial Least Squares model could be used for a multi-dimensional presentation of all data generated in a stability study and for determination of the relationship among factors that influence drug stability. It might also be used for stability predictions and potentially for the optimization of the extent of stability testing needed to determine shelf life and storage conditions, which would be time and cost-effective for the pharmaceutical industry.

  8. Prediction of turning stability using receptance coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasiewicz, Marcin; Powałka, Bartosz

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents an issue of machining stability prediction of dynamic "lathe - workpiece" system evaluated using receptance coupling method. Dynamic properties of the lathe components (the spindle and the tailstock) are assumed to be constant and can be determined experimentally based on the results of the impact test. Hence, the variable of the system "machine tool - holder - workpiece" is the machined part, which can be easily modelled analytically. The method of receptance coupling enables a synthesis of experimental (spindle, tailstock) and analytical (machined part) models, so impact testing of the entire system becomes unnecessary. The paper presents methodology of analytical and experimental models synthesis, evaluation of the stability lobes and experimental validation procedure involving both the determination of the dynamic properties of the system and cutting tests. In the summary the experimental verification results would be presented and discussed.

  9. Stability of fragrance patch test preparations applied in test chambers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowitz, M; Zimerson, E; Svedman, C; Bruze, M

    2012-10-01

    Petrolatum patch test preparations are for practical reasons often applied in test chambers in advance, several hours or even days before the patient is tested. As many fragrance compounds are volatile it may be suspected that petrolatum preparations applied in test chambers are not stable over time. To investigate the stability of petrolatum preparations of the seven chemically defined components in the fragrance mix (FM I) when stored in test chambers. Samples of petrolatum preparations applied in test chambers stored at room temperature and in a refrigerator for between 4 and 144 h were analysed using liquid chromatographic methods. The concentration decreased by ≥ 20% within 8 h in four of seven preparations stored in Finn chambers at room temperature. When stored in a refrigerator only the preparation of cinnamal had decreased by ≥ 20% within 24 h. The stability of preparations of cinnamal stored in IQ chambers with a plastic cover was slightly better, but like the preparations applied in Finn chambers, the concentration decreased by ≥ 20% within 4 h at room temperature and within 24 h in a refrigerator. Cinnamal and cinnamyl alcohol were found to be more stable when analysed as ingredients in FM I compared with when analysed in individual preparations. Within a couple of hours several fragrance allergens evaporate from test chambers to an extent that may affect the outcome of the patch test. Application to the test chambers should be performed as close to the patch test occasion as possible and storage in a refrigerator is recommended. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

  10. Stability Constraints for Robust Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda G. S. Ottoni

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an approach for the robust stabilization of systems controlled by MPC strategies. Uncertain SISO linear systems with box-bounded parametric uncertainties are considered. The proposed approach delivers some constraints on the control inputs which impose sufficient conditions for the convergence of the system output. These stability constraints can be included in the set of constraints dealt with by existing MPC design strategies, in this way leading to the “robustification” of the MPC.

  11. Linear model applied to the evaluation of pharmaceutical stability data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Cesar Souza

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The expiry date on the packaging of a product gives the consumer the confidence that the product will retain its identity, content, quality and purity throughout the period of validity of the drug. The definition of this term in the pharmaceutical industry is based on stability data obtained during the product registration. By the above, this work aims to apply the linear regression according to the guideline ICH Q1E, 2003, to evaluate some aspects of a product undergoing in a registration phase in Brazil. With this propose, the evaluation was realized with the development center of a multinational company in Brazil, with samples of three different batches composed by two active principal ingredients in two different packages. Based on the preliminary results obtained, it was possible to observe the difference of degradation tendency of the product in two different packages and the relationship between the variables studied, added knowledge so new models of linear equations can be applied and developed for other products.

  12. Breaking the stability pact: was it predictable?

    OpenAIRE

    Bonatti, Luigi; Cristini, Annalisa

    2007-01-01

    We show analytically that the credibility problem which has affected the European Stability Pact originates from the insufficient distinction between two reasons for having binding fiscal constraints. The first reason deals with the governments’ tendency to neglect the effects of their fiscal policy on foreign governments (fiscal free-riding). The second reason follows from the governments’ tendency to raise debt by lowering taxes or increasing expenditures, and then to leave it to their succ...

  13. Model predictive control of hybrid systems : stability and robustness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazar, M.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis considers the stabilization and the robust stabilization of certain classes of hybrid systems using model predictive control. Hybrid systems represent a broad class of dynamical systems in which discrete behavior (usually described by a finite state machine) and continuous behavior

  14. Optimal control theory applied to fusion plasma thermal stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sager, G.; Miley, G.; Maya, I.

    1985-01-01

    Many authors have investigated stability characteristics and performance of various burn control schemes. The work presented here represents the first application of optimal control theory to the problem of fusion plasma thermal stabilization. The objectives of this initial investigation were to develop analysis methods, demonstrate tractability, and present some preliminary results of optimal control theory in burn control research

  15. Ultimate Opening Combined with Area Stability Applied to Urban Scenes

    OpenAIRE

    Marcotegui , Beatriz; Serna , Andrés; Hernández , Jorge

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper explores the use of ultimate opening in urban analysis context. It demonstrates the efficiency of this approach for street level elevation images, derived from 3D point clouds acquired by terrestrial mobile mapping systems. An area-stability term is introduced in the residual definition, reducing the over-segmentation of the vegetation while preserving small significant regions. We compare two possible combinations of the Ultimate Opening and the Area Stabil...

  16. Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium - A test of the validity of dynamic models as applied to gyroviscous perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihi, Mustafa; Scheffel, Jan; Spies, Guenther O.

    1988-05-01

    Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium is put forward as a simple test of the validity of dynamic equations, and is applied to perpendicular gyroviscous magnetohydrodynamics (i.e., perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics with gyroviscosity added). This model turns out to be invalid because it predicts exponentially growing Alfven waves in a spatially homogeneous static equilibrium with scalar pressure.

  17. Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium: A test of the validity of dynamic models as applied to gyroviscous perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faghihi, M.; Scheffel, J.; Spies, G.O.

    1988-01-01

    Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium is put forward as a simple test of the validity of dynamic equations, and is applied to perpendicular gyroviscous magnetohydrodynamics (i.e., perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics with gyroviscosity added). This model turns out to be invalid because it predicts exponentially growing Alfven waves in a spatially homogeneous static equilibrium with scalar pressure

  18. Stability analysis of embedded nonlinear predictor neural generalized predictive controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesham F. Abdel Ghaffar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear Predictor-Neural Generalized Predictive Controller (NGPC is one of the most advanced control techniques that are used with severe nonlinear processes. In this paper, a hybrid solution from NGPC and Internal Model Principle (IMP is implemented to stabilize nonlinear, non-minimum phase, variable dead time processes under high disturbance values over wide range of operation. Also, the superiority of NGPC over linear predictive controllers, like GPC, is proved for severe nonlinear processes over wide range of operation. The necessary conditions required to stabilize NGPC is derived using Lyapunov stability analysis for nonlinear processes. The NGPC stability conditions and improvement in disturbance suppression are verified by both simulation using Duffing’s nonlinear equation and real-time using continuous stirred tank reactor. Up to our knowledge, the paper offers the first hardware embedded Neural GPC which has been utilized to verify NGPC–IMP improvement in realtime.

  19. Galileo disposal strategy: stability, chaos and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosengren, Aaron J.; Daquin, Jérôme; Tsiganis, Kleomenis; Alessi, Elisa Maria; Deleflie, Florent; Rossi, Alessandro; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    2017-02-01

    Recent studies have shown that the medium-Earth orbit (MEO) region of the global navigation satellite systems is permeated by a devious network of lunisolar secular resonances, which can interact to produce chaotic and diffusive motions. The precarious state of the four navigation constellations, perched on the threshold of instability, makes it understandable why all past efforts to define stable graveyard orbits, especially in the case of Galileo, were bound to fail; the region is far too complex to allow for an adoption of the simple geosynchronous disposal strategy. We retrace one such recent attempt, funded by ESA's General Studies Programme in the frame of the GreenOPS initiative, that uses a systematic parametric approach and the straightforward maximum-eccentricity method to identify long-term-stable regions, suitable for graveyards, as well as large-scale excursions in eccentricity, which can be used for post-mission deorbiting of constellation satellites. We then apply our new results on the stunningly rich dynamical structure of the MEO region towards the analysis of these disposal strategies for Galileo, and discuss the practical implications of resonances and chaos in this regime. We outline how the identification of the hyperbolic and elliptic fixed points of the resonances near Galileo can lead to explicit criteria for defining optimal disposal strategies.

  20. Prediction and Stability of Mathematics Skill and Difficulty

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Rebecca B.; Cirino, Paul T.; Barnes, Marcia A.; Ewing-Cobbs, Linda; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Stuebing, Karla K.; Fletcher, Jack M.

    2012-01-01

    The present study evaluated the stability of math learning difficulties over a 2-year period and investigated several factors that might influence this stability (categorical vs. continuous change, liberal vs. conservative cut point, broad vs. specific math assessment); the prediction of math performance over time and by performance level was also evaluated. Participants were 144 students initially identified as having a math difficulty (MD) or no learning difficulty according to low achievem...

  1. Element diameter free stability parameters for stabilized methods applied to fluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franca, L.P.; Madureira, A.L.

    1992-08-01

    Stability parameters for stabilized methods in fluids are suggested. The computation of the largest eigenvalue of a generalized eigenvalue problem replaces controversial definitions of element diameters and inverse estimate constants, used heretofore to compute these stability parameters. The design is employed in the advective-diffusive model, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and the Stokes problem. (author)

  2. Robust stability in predictive control with soft constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz; Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we take advantage of the primary and dual Youla parameterizations for setting up a soft constrained model predictive control (MPC) scheme for which stability is guaranteed in face of norm-bounded uncertainties. Under special conditions guarantees are also given for hard input...... constraints. In more detail, we parameterize the MPC predictions in terms of the primary Youla parameter and use this parameter as the online optimization variable. The uncertainty is parameterized in terms of the dual Youla parameter. Stability can then be guaranteed through small gain arguments on the loop...

  3. Robust stability in constrained predictive control through the Youla parameterisations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz; Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2011-01-01

    In this article we take advantage of the primary and dual Youla parameterisations to set up a soft constrained model predictive control (MPC) scheme. In this framework it is possible to guarantee stability in face of norm-bounded uncertainties. Under special conditions guarantees are also given...... for hard input constraints. In more detail, we parameterise the MPC predictions in terms of the primary Youla parameter and use this parameter as the on-line optimisation variable. The uncertainty is parameterised in terms of the dual Youla parameter. Stability can then be guaranteed through small gain...

  4. Frequency prediction by linear stability analysis around mean flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengana, Yacine; Tuckerman, Laurette

    2017-11-01

    The frequency of certain limit cycles resulting from a Hopf bifurcation, such as the von Karman vortex street, can be predicted by linear stability analysis around their mean flows. Barkley (2006) has shown this to yield an eigenvalue whose real part is zero and whose imaginary part matches the nonlinear frequency. This property was named RZIF by Turton et al. (2015); moreover they found that the traveling waves (TW) of thermosolutal convection have the RZIF property. They explained this as a consequence of the fact that the temporal Fourier spectrum is dominated by the mean flow and first harmonic. We could therefore consider that only the first mode is important in the saturation of the mean flow as presented in the Self-Consistent Model (SCM) of Mantic-Lugo et al. (2014). We have implemented a full Newton's method to solve the SCM for thermosolutal convection. We show that while the RZIF property is satisfied far from the threshold, the SCM model reproduces the exact frequency only very close to the threshold. Thus, the nonlinear interaction of only the first mode with itself is insufficiently accurate to estimate the mean flow. Our next step will be to take into account higher harmonics and to apply this analysis to the standing waves, for which RZIF does not hold.

  5. Fuzzy model predictive control algorithm applied in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuheir, Ahmad

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to design a predictive controller based on a fuzzy model. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model with an Adaptive B-splines neuro-fuzzy implementation is used and incorporated as a predictor in a predictive controller. An optimization approach with a simplified gradient technique is used to calculate predictions of the future control actions. In this approach, adaptation of the fuzzy model using dynamic process information is carried out to build the predictive controller. The easy description of the fuzzy model and the easy computation of the gradient sector during the optimization procedure are the main advantages of the computation algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the control of a U-tube steam generation unit (UTSG) used for electricity generation. (author)

  6. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  7. Output Feedback Stabilization with Nonlinear Predictive Control: Asymptotic properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Imsland

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available State space based nonlinear model predictive control (NM PC needs the state for the prediction of the system behaviour. Unfortunately, for most applications, not all states are directly measurable. To recover the unmeasured states, typically a stable state observer is used. However, this implies that the stability of the closed-loop should be examined carefully, since no general nonlinear separation principle exists. Recently semi-global practical stability results for output feedback NMPC using a high-gain observer for state estimation have been established. One drawback of this result is that (in general the observer gain must be increased, if the desired set the state should converge to is made smaller. We show that under slightly stronger assumptions, not only practical stability, but also convergence of the system states and observer error to the origin for a sufficiently large but bounded observer gain can be achieved.

  8. Investigation of the effects of human body stability on joint angles’ prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasha Zanoosi, A. A., E-mail: aliakbar.pasha@yahoo.com, E-mail: aliakbar.pasha@qiau.ac.ir [Islamic Azad University, Faculty of Industrial & Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin Branch (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Naderi, D.; Sadeghi-Mehr, M.; Feri, M. [Bu Ali-Sina University, Mechanical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Beheshtiha, A. Sh. [Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute of Mechanics and Computational Mechanics (Germany); Fallahnejad, K. [Flinders University, Discipline of Mechanical Engineering, School of Computer Science, Engineering and Mathematics (Australia)

    2015-10-15

    Loosing stability control in elderly or paralyzed has motivated researchers to study how a stability control system works and how to determine its state at every time instant. Studying the stability of a human body is not only an important problem from a scientific viewpoint, but also finally leads to new designs of prostheses and orthoses and rehabilitation methods. Computer modeling enables researchers to study and describe the reactions and propose a suitable and optimized motion pattern to strengthen the neuromuscular system and helps a human body maintain its stability. A perturbation as a tilting is exposed to an underfoot plate of a musculoskeletal model of the body to study the stability. The studied model of a human body included four links and three degrees of freedom with eight muscles in the sagittal plane. Lagrangian dynamics was used for deriving equations of motion and muscles were modeled using Hill’s model. Using experimental data of joint trajectories for a human body under tilting perturbation, forward dynamics has been applied to predict joint trajectories and muscle activation. This study investigated the effects of stability on predicting body joints’ motion. A new stability function for a human body, based on the zero moment point, has been employed in a forward dynamics procedure using a direct collocation method. A multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithm has been proposed to employ stability as a robotic objective function along with muscle stresses as a biological objective function. The obtained results for joints’ motion were compared to experimental data. The results show that, for this type of perturbations, muscle stresses are in conflict with body stability. This means that more body stability requires more stresses in muscles and reverse. Results also show the effects of the stability objective function in better prediction of joint trajectories.

  9. Investigation of the effects of human body stability on joint angles’ prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasha Zanoosi, A. A.; Naderi, D.; Sadeghi-Mehr, M.; Feri, M.; Beheshtiha, A. Sh.; Fallahnejad, K.

    2015-01-01

    Loosing stability control in elderly or paralyzed has motivated researchers to study how a stability control system works and how to determine its state at every time instant. Studying the stability of a human body is not only an important problem from a scientific viewpoint, but also finally leads to new designs of prostheses and orthoses and rehabilitation methods. Computer modeling enables researchers to study and describe the reactions and propose a suitable and optimized motion pattern to strengthen the neuromuscular system and helps a human body maintain its stability. A perturbation as a tilting is exposed to an underfoot plate of a musculoskeletal model of the body to study the stability. The studied model of a human body included four links and three degrees of freedom with eight muscles in the sagittal plane. Lagrangian dynamics was used for deriving equations of motion and muscles were modeled using Hill’s model. Using experimental data of joint trajectories for a human body under tilting perturbation, forward dynamics has been applied to predict joint trajectories and muscle activation. This study investigated the effects of stability on predicting body joints’ motion. A new stability function for a human body, based on the zero moment point, has been employed in a forward dynamics procedure using a direct collocation method. A multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithm has been proposed to employ stability as a robotic objective function along with muscle stresses as a biological objective function. The obtained results for joints’ motion were compared to experimental data. The results show that, for this type of perturbations, muscle stresses are in conflict with body stability. This means that more body stability requires more stresses in muscles and reverse. Results also show the effects of the stability objective function in better prediction of joint trajectories

  10. Applying Nyquist's method for stability determination to solar wind observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Kristopher G.; Kasper, Justin C.; Korreck, K. E.; Stevens, Michael L.

    2017-10-01

    The role instabilities play in governing the evolution of solar and astrophysical plasmas is a matter of considerable scientific interest. The large number of sources of free energy accessible to such nearly collisionless plasmas makes general modeling of unstable behavior, accounting for the temperatures, densities, anisotropies, and relative drifts of a large number of populations, analytically difficult. We therefore seek a general method of stability determination that may be automated for future analysis of solar wind observations. This work describes an efficient application of the Nyquist instability method to the Vlasov dispersion relation appropriate for hot, collisionless, magnetized plasmas, including the solar wind. The algorithm recovers the familiar proton temperature anisotropy instabilities, as well as instabilities that had been previously identified using fits extracted from in situ observations in Gary et al. (2016). Future proposed applications of this method are discussed.

  11. Applying model predictive control to power system frequency control

    OpenAIRE

    Ersdal, AM; Imsland, L; Cecilio, IM; Fabozzi, D; Thornhill, NF

    2013-01-01

    16.07.14 KB Ok to add accepted version to Spiral Model predictive control (MPC) is investigated as a control method which may offer advantages in frequency control of power systems than the control methods applied today, especially in presence of increased renewable energy penetration. The MPC includes constraints on both generation amount and generation rate of change, and it is tested on a one-area system. The proposed MPC is tested against a conventional proportional-integral (PI) cont...

  12. SCADA system with predictive controller applied to irrigation canals

    OpenAIRE

    Figueiredo, João; Botto, Miguel; Rijo, Manuel

    2013-01-01

    This paper applies a model predictive controller (MPC) to an automatic water canal with sensors and actuators controlled by a network (programmable logic controller), and supervised by a SCADA system (supervisory control and a data acquisition). This canal is composed by a set of distributed sub-systems that control the water level in each canal pool, constrained by discharge gates (control variables) and water off-takes (disturbances). All local controllers are available through an industria...

  13. ATTEMPT TO APPLY STABILIZED WHEAT GERM FOR BREAD SUPPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halina Gambuś

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The increased interest in rational nutrition causes, that from many years is observed a growing consumption of bread, and novel food supplemented with health promoting components. For the bread production in Poland mainly wheat and rye cake flours are used, depleted of a many valuable nutrients such as protein, dietary fibre, minerals and vitamins. Because of their unique chemical composition wheat germs are a particularly valuable resource, both for direct consumption and to enhance the nutritional value of food products. The aim of the study was to prepare wheat bread with a 10% addition of commercial stabilized wheat germs. Based on the obtained results, it was found that wheat germs, due to their unique chemical composition, were a particularly valuable resource to supplement the nutritional value of bread. However, germs had detrimental effect on mechanical properties of dough, and on bread quality. Texture of bread crumb and its chemical composition were analysed. It was shown, that germs subjected to fermentation process could be used in wheat bread production as dietary fibre and mineral compound supplement.

  14. Analytical Prediction of Three Dimensional Chatter Stability in Milling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altintas, Yusuf

    The chip regeneration mechanism during chatter is influenced by vibrations in three directions when milling cutters with ball end, bull nose, or inclined cutting edges are used. A three dimensional chatter stability is modeled analytically in this article. The dynamic milling system is formulated as a function of cutter geometry, the frequency response of the machine tool structure at the cutting zone in three Cartesian directions, cutter engagement conditions and material property. The dynamic milling system with nonlinearities and periodic delayed differential equations is reduced to a three dimensional linear stability problem by approximations based on the physics of milling. The chatter stability lobes are predicted in the frequency domain using the proposed analytical solution, and verified experimentally in milling a Titanium alloy with a face milling cutter having circular inserts.

  15. Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Panza, G.F.; Peresan, A.

    2001-12-01

    A new scheme for the application of the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8 is proposed. The scheme accounts for the natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates the subjectivity in the positioning of the areas of investigation and provides additional stability of the predictions with respect to the original variant. According to the retroactive testing in Italy and adjacent regions, this improvement is achieved without any significant change of the alarm volume in comparison with the results published so far. (author)

  16. Enhanced pid vs model predictive control applied to bldc motor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaya, M. S.; Muhammad, Auwal; Aliyu Abdulkadir, Rabiu; Salim, S. N. S.; Madugu, I. S.; Tijjani, Aminu; Aminu Yusuf, Lukman; Dauda Umar, Ibrahim; Khairi, M. T. M.

    2018-01-01

    BrushLess Direct Current (BLDC) motor is a multivariable and highly complex nonlinear system. Variation of internal parameter values with environment or reference signal increases the difficulty in controlling the BLDC effectively. Advanced control strategies (like model predictive control) often have to be integrated to satisfy the control desires. Enhancing or proper tuning of a conventional algorithm results in achieving the desired performance. This paper presents a performance comparison of Enhanced PID and Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to brushless direct current motor. The simulation results demonstrated that the PSO-PID is slightly better than the PID and MPC in tracking the trajectory of the reference signal. The proposed scheme could be useful algorithms for the system.

  17. A machine learns to predict the stability of circumbinary planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Christopher; Kipping, David

    2018-01-01

    Long-period circumbinary planets appear to be as common as those orbiting single stars and have been found to frequently have orbital radii just beyond the critical distance for dynamical stability. Assessing the stability is typically done either through N-body simulations or using the classic Holman-Wiegert stability criterion: a second-order polynomial calibrated to broadly match numerical simulations. However, the polynomial is unable to capture islands of instability introduced by mean motion resonances, causing the accuracy of the criterion to approach that of a random coin-toss when close to the boundary. We show how a deep neural network (DNN) trained on N-body simulations generated with REBOUND is able to significantly improve stability predictions for circumbinary planets on initially coplanar, circular orbits. Specifically, we find that the accuracy of our DNN never drops below 86%, even when tightly surrounding the boundary of instability, and is fast enough to be practical for on-the-fly calls during likelihood evaluations typical of modern Bayesian inference. Our binary classifier DNN is made publicly available at https://github.com/CoolWorlds/orbital-stability.

  18. A machine learns to predict the stability of circumbinary planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Christopher; Kipping, David

    2018-06-01

    Long-period circumbinary planets appear to be as common as those orbiting single stars and have been found to frequently have orbital radii just beyond the critical distance for dynamical stability. Assessing the stability is typically done either through N-body simulations or using the classic stability criterion first considered by Dvorak and later developed by Holman and Wiegert: a second-order polynomial calibrated to broadly match numerical simulations. However, the polynomial is unable to capture islands of instability introduced by mean motion resonances, causing the accuracy of the criterion to approach that of a random coin-toss when close to the boundary. We show how a deep neural network (DNN) trained on N-body simulations generated with REBOUND is able to significantly improve stability predictions for circumbinary planets on initially coplanar, circular orbits. Specifically, we find that the accuracy of our DNN never drops below 86 per cent, even when tightly surrounding the boundary of instability, and is fast enough to be practical for on-the-fly calls during likelihood evaluations typical of modern Bayesian inference. Our binary classifier DNN is made publicly available at https://github.com/CoolWorlds/orbital-stability.

  19. Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C.R.; Brown-van Hoozer, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks

  20. Prediction of in-service time period of three differently stabilized single base propellants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bohn, Manfred A. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Chemische Technologie (ICT), Pfinztal-Berghausen (Germany)

    2009-06-15

    Three nitrocellulose-based propellants for use in micro gas generators equipped with different stabilizing systems have been investigated to assess the stabilization capability with regard to in-service time, whereby strong time-temperature profiles have been applied. The three stabilizing systems have been (i) 0.74 mass-% diphenylamine (DPA) and 0.48 mass-% Akardite II (Ak II); (ii) 1.25 mass-% Ak II; (iii) 2.04 mass-% Ak II. Several profiles were considered. Two simulate the heating at sun exposure in hot areas, others consider environmental temperatures in hot-humid and hot-dry areas. They were evaluated according to the load and finally one was chosen for the assessment. The contents of stabilizers were determined by high performance liquid chromatography after Soxhlet type extraction. To describe stabilizer consumption, the most suitable kinetic model was taken. Therewith a prediction was made using the chosen time-temperature profile named 'Phoenix', designed for temperatures at the steering wheel. The objective was to reach with this profile 15 years until the consumption of primary stabilizer content. This is conservative, because with the stabilizing action of the consecutive products of the stabilizers longer times are possible. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  1. Stability of the spreading in small-world network with predictive controller

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao, Z.J.; Jiang, Q.Y.; Yan, W.J.; Cao, Y.J.

    2010-01-01

    In this Letter, we apply the predictive control strategy to suppress the propagation of diseases or viruses in small-world network. The stability of small-world spreading model with predictive controller is investigated. The sufficient and necessary stability condition is given, which is closely related to the controller parameters and small-world rewiring probability p. Our simulations discover a phenomenon that, with the fixed predictive controller parameters, the spreading dynamics become more and more stable when p decreases from a larger value to a smaller one, and the suitable controller parameters can effectively suppress the spreading behaviors even when p varies within the whole spectrum, and the unsuitable controller parameters can lead to oscillation when p lies within a certain range.

  2. Theoretical prediction of the energy stability of graphene nanoblisters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glukhova, O. E.; Slepchenkov, M. M.; Barkov, P. V.

    2018-04-01

    The paper presents the results of a theoretical prediction of the energy stability of graphene nanoblisters with various geometrical parameters. As a criterion for the evaluation of the stability of investigated carbon objects we propose to consider the value of local stress of the nanoblister atomic grid. Numerical evaluation of stresses experienced by atoms of the graphene blister framework was carried out by means of an original method for calculation of local stresses that is based on energy approach. Atomistic models of graphene nanoblisters corresponding to the natural experiment data were built for the first time in this work. New physical regularities of the influence of topology on the thermodynamic stability of nanoblisters were established as a result of the analysis of the numerical experiment data. We built the distribution of local stresses for graphene blister structures, whose atomic grid contains a variety of structural defects. We have shown how the concentration and location of defects affect the picture of the distribution of the maximum stresses experienced by the atoms of the nanoblisters.

  3. Analysis and Prediction of Micromilling Stability with Variable Tool Geometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziyang Cao

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Micromilling can fabricate miniaturized components using micro-end mill at high rotational speeds. The analysis of machining stability in micromilling plays an important role in characterizing the cutting process, estimating the tool life, and optimizing the process. A numerical analysis and experimental method are presented to investigate the chatter stability in micro-end milling process with variable milling tool geometry. The schematic model of micromilling process is constructed and the calculation formula to predict cutting force and displacements is derived. This is followed by a detailed numerical analysis on micromilling forces between helical ball and square end mills through time domain and frequency domain method and the results are compared. Furthermore, a detailed time domain simulation for micro end milling with straight teeth and helical teeth end mill is conducted based on the machine-tool system frequency response function obtained through modal experiment. The forces and displacements are predicted and the simulation result between variable cutter geometry is deeply compared. The simulation results have important significance for the actual milling process.

  4. DYMEL code for prediction of dynamic stability limits in boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deam, R.T.

    1980-01-01

    Theoretical and experimental studies of Hydrodynamic Instability in boilers were undertaken to resolve the uncertainties of the existing predictive methods at the time the first Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGR) plant was commissioned. The experiments were conducted on a full scale electrical simulation of an AGR boiler and revealed inadequacies in existing methods. As a result a new computer code called DYMEL was developed based on linearisation and Fourier/Laplace Transformation of the one-dimensional boiler equations in both time and space. Beside giving good agreement with local experimental data, the DYMEL code has since shown agreement with stability data from the plant, sodium heated helical tubes, a gas heated helical tube and an electrically heated U-tube. The code is now used widely within the U.K. (author)

  5. Navier-Stokes Predictions of Dynamic Stability Derivatives: Evaluation of Steady-State Methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    DeSpirito, James; Silton, Sidra I; Weinacht, Paul

    2008-01-01

    The prediction of the dynamic stability derivatives-roll-damping, Magnus, and pitch-damping moments-were evaluated for three spin-stabilized projectiles using steady-state computational fluid dynamic (CFD) calculations...

  6. Classical linear-control analysis applied to business-cycle dynamics and stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingrove, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Linear control analysis is applied as an aid in understanding the fluctuations of business cycles in the past, and to examine monetary policies that might improve stabilization. The analysis shows how different policies change the frequency and damping of the economic system dynamics, and how they modify the amplitude of the fluctuations that are caused by random disturbances. Examples are used to show how policy feedbacks and policy lags can be incorporated, and how different monetary strategies for stabilization can be analytically compared. Representative numerical results are used to illustrate the main points.

  7. Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown-Van Hoozer, S.A.; Kenley, C.R.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks. This paper presents the programmatic risk assessment methodology developed for the 1995 R and D Plan and updated for the 1996 R and D Plan. Results of the 1996 assessment also are presented (DOE/ID-10561, 1996)

  8. A Deeper Understanding of Stability in the Solar Wind: Applying Nyquist's Instability Criterion to Wind Faraday Cup Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alterman, B. L.; Klein, K. G.; Verscharen, D.; Stevens, M. L.; Kasper, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Long duration, in situ data sets enable large-scale statistical analysis of free-energy-driven instabilities in the solar wind. The plasma beta and temperature anisotropy plane provides a well-defined parameter space in which a single-fluid plasma's stability can be represented. Because this reduced parameter space can only represent instability thresholds due to the free energy of one ion species - typically the bulk protons - the true impact of instabilities on the solar wind is under estimated. Nyquist's instability criterion allows us to systematically account for other sources of free energy including beams, drifts, and additional temperature anisotropies. Utilizing over 20 years of Wind Faraday cup and magnetic field observations, we have resolved the bulk parameters for three ion populations: the bulk protons, beam protons, and alpha particles. Applying Nyquist's criterion, we calculate the number of linearly growing modes supported by each spectrum and provide a more nuanced consideration of solar wind stability. Using collisional age measurements, we predict the stability of the solar wind close to the sun. Accounting for the free-energy from the three most common ion populations in the solar wind, our approach provides a more complete characterization of solar wind stability.

  9. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz Rodríguez, Susana Irene; Mazza, Silvia M.; Fernández-Combarro Álvarez, Elías; Giménez, Laura I.; Gaiad, José E.

    2017-01-01

    An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analyse...

  10. Analytical Prediction of the Spin Stabilized Satellite's Attitude Using The Solar Radiation Torque

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motta, G B; Carvalho, M V; Zanardi, M C

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present an analytical solution for the spin motion equations of spin-stabilized satellite considering only the influence of solar radiation torque. The theory uses a cylindrical satellite on a circular orbit and considers that the satellite is always illuminated. The average components of this torque were determined over an orbital period. These components are substituted in the spin motion equations in order to get an analytical solution for the right ascension and declination of the satellite spin axis. The time evolution for the pointing deviation of the spin axis was also analyzed. These solutions were numerically implemented and compared with real data of the Brazilian Satellite of Data Collection – SCD1 an SCD2. The results show that the theory has consistency and can be applied to predict the spin motion of spin-stabilized artificial satellites

  11. Modeling and simulation of adaptive Neuro-fuzzy based intelligent system for predictive stabilization in structured overlay networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramanpreet Kaur

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Intelligent prediction of neighboring node (k well defined neighbors as specified by the dht protocol dynamism is helpful to improve the resilience and can reduce the overhead associated with topology maintenance of structured overlay networks. The dynamic behavior of overlay nodes depends on many factors such as underlying user’s online behavior, geographical position, time of the day, day of the week etc. as reported in many applications. We can exploit these characteristics for efficient maintenance of structured overlay networks by implementing an intelligent predictive framework for setting stabilization parameters appropriately. Considering the fact that human driven behavior usually goes beyond intermittent availability patterns, we use a hybrid Neuro-fuzzy based predictor to enhance the accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we discuss our predictive stabilization approach, implement Neuro-fuzzy based prediction in MATLAB simulation and apply this predictive stabilization model in a chord based overlay network using OverSim as a simulation tool. The MATLAB simulation results present that the behavior of neighboring nodes is predictable to a large extent as indicated by the very small RMSE. The OverSim based simulation results also observe significant improvements in the performance of chord based overlay network in terms of lookup success ratio, lookup hop count and maintenance overhead as compared to periodic stabilization approach.

  12. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Díaz, I.; Mazza, S.M.; Combarro, E.F.; Giménez, L.I.; Gaiad, J.E.

    2017-07-01

    An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees' age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8) and relative mean absolute error (~0.1). These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

  13. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz, I.; Mazza, S.M.; Combarro, E.F.; Giménez, L.I.; Gaiad, J.E.

    2017-01-01

    An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees' age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8) and relative mean absolute error (~0.1). These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

  14. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Díaz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees’ age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8 and relative mean absolute error (~0.1. These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

  15. Prediction and analysis of structure, stability and unfolding of thermolysin-like proteases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vriend, Gert; Eijsink, Vincent

    1993-08-01

    Bacillus neutral proteases (NPs) form a group of well-characterized homologous enzymes, that exhibit large differences in thermostability. The three-dimensional (3D) structures of several of these enzymes have been modelled on the basis of the crystal structures of the NPs of B. thermoproteolyticus (thermolysin) and B. cercus. Several new techniques have been developed to improve the model-building procedures. Also a model-building by mutagenesis' strategy was used, in which mutants were designed just to shed light on parts of the structures that were particularly hard to model. The NP models have been used for the prediction of site-directed mutations aimed at improving the thermostability of the enzymes. Predictions were made using several novel computational techniques, such as position-specific rotamer searching, packing quality analysis and property-profile database searches. Many stabilizing mutations were predicted and produced: improvement of hydrogen bonding, exclusion of buried water molecules, capping helices, improvement of hydrophobic interactions and entropic stabilization have been applied successfully. At elevated temperatures NPs are irreversibly inactivated as a result of autolysis. It has been shown that this denaturation process is independent of the protease activity and concentration and that the inactivation follows first-order kinetics. From this it has been conjectured that local unfolding of (surface) loops, which renders the protein susceptible to autolysis, is the rate-limiting step. Despite the particular nature of the thermal denaturation process, normal rules for protein stability can be applied to NPs. However, rather than stabilizing the whole protein against global unfolding, only a small region has to be protected against local unfolding. In contrast to proteins in general, mutational effects in proteases are not additive and their magnitude is strongly dependent on the location of the mutation. Mutations that alter the stability

  16. A Multiobjective Approach Applied to the Protein Structure Prediction Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-03-07

    local conformations [38]. Moreover, all these models have the same theme in trying to define the properties a real protein has when folding. Today , it...attempted to solve the PSP problem with a real valued GA and found better results than a competitor (Scheraga, et al) [50]; however, today we know that...ACM Symposium on Applied computing (SAC01) (March 11-14 2001). Las Vegas, Nevada. [22] Derrida , B. “Random Energy Model: Limit of a Family of

  17. Mathematical Modeling Applied to Prediction of Landslides in Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Lúcia; Araújo, João; Braga, Beatriz; Fernandes, Nelson

    2013-04-01

    Mass movements are natural phenomena that occur on the slopes and are important agents working in landscape development. These movements have caused serious damage to infrastructure and properties. In addition to the mass movements occurring in natural slopes, there is also a large number of accidents induced by human action in the landscape. The change of use and land cover for the introduction of agriculture is a good example that have affected the stability of slopes. Land use and/or land cover changes have direct and indirect effects on slope stability and frequently represent a major factor controlling the occurrence of man-induced mass movements. In Brazil, especially in the southern and southeastern regions, areas of original natural rain forest have been continuously replaced by agriculture during the last decades, leading to important modifications in soil mechanical properties and to major changes in hillslope hydrology. In these regions, such effects are amplified due to the steep hilly topography, intense summer rainfall events and dense urbanization. In November 2008, a major landslide event took place in a rural area with intensive agriculture in the state of Santa Catarina (Morro do Baú) where many catastrophic landslides were triggered after a long rainy period. In this area, the natural forest has been replaced by huge banana and pine plantations. The state of Santa Catarina in recent decades has been the scene of several incidents of mass movements such as this catastrophic event. In this study, based on field mapping and modeling, we characterize the role played by geomorphological and geological factors in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides in the Morro do Baú area. In order to attain such objective, a digital elevation model of the basin was generated with a 10m grid in which the topographic parameters were obtained. The spatial distribution of the scars from this major event was mapped from another image, obtained immediately

  18. Possibility logic applied to pressure vessel residual lifetime prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garribba, S.; Lucia, A.C.; Volta, G.

    1985-01-01

    The adequacy is discussed of a probability measure to deal with the different types of uncertainty affecting any pressure vessel lifetime prediction. A more comprehensive framework derived from the fuzzy set theory and including as particular case possibility and probability measures is considered. With reference to the most critical step of lifetime assessment (the ND inspection), the paper compares the results, obtained adopting a possibility measure or a probability measure, in the representation models, fault tree-event tree, and in the decision models

  19. A tactile stimulus applied to the leg improves postural stability in young, old and neuropathic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menz, Hylton B; Lord, Stephen R; Fitzpatrick, Richard C

    2006-10-02

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether the application of passive tactile cues to the lower limb could improve postural stability in healthy young controls, older people and people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Antero-posterior sway was measured with eyes open and closed in 10 healthy young subjects (mean age 27 years, 5 male, 5 female), 10 older subjects without diabetic peripheral neuropathy (mean age 88 years, 2 male, 8 female) and 10 subjects with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (mean age 65 years, 6 male, 4 female) while a small piece of Velcro attached to a flexible mount was applied to three different sites on the leg (ankle, calf, and knee). Across all conditions, the mean sway of the neuropathic subjects was 93% greater than for the young subjects and 11% more than the older subjects. On average, subjects swayed 10% more with the eyes closed than with the eyes open. Each stimulus reduced sway, but the effect increased approximately in proportion to the height of the stimulus above the ankles (ankle 7.6%, calf 13.5%, knee 20.1% reduction compared to the no stimulus condition). This experiment demonstrates that a passive stimulus applied to the skin of the leg, which provides sensory information about body movement, significantly reduces body sway during standing. This applies to older subjects and subjects with peripheral neuropathy as well as healthy young subjects. These results have implications for novel approaches for improving stability in people with peripheral sensory loss.

  20. Linear and nonlinear stability analysis in BWRs applying a reduced order model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olvera G, O. A.; Espinosa P, G.; Prieto G, A., E-mail: omar_olverag@hotmail.com [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, San Rafael Atlixco No. 186, Col. Vicentina, 09340 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico)

    2016-09-15

    Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) stability studies are generally conducted through nonlinear reduced order models (Rom) employing various techniques such as bifurcation analysis and time domain numerical integration. One of those models used for these studies is the March-Leuba Rom. Such model represents qualitatively the dynamic behavior of a BWR through a one-point reactor kinetics, a one node representation of the heat transfer process in fuel, and a two node representation of the channel Thermal hydraulics to account for the void reactivity feedback. Here, we study the effect of this higher order model on the overall stability of the BWR. The change in the stability boundaries is determined by evaluating the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. The nonlinear model is also integrated numerically to show that in the nonlinear region, the system evolves to stable limit cycles when operating close to the stability boundary. We also applied a new technique based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition (Emd) to estimate a parameter linked with stability in a BWR. This instability parameter is not exactly the classical Decay Ratio (Dr), but it will be linked with it. The proposed method allows decomposing the analyzed signal in different levels or mono-component functions known as intrinsic mode functions (Imf). One or more of these different modes can be associated to the instability problem in BWRs. By tracking the instantaneous frequencies (calculated through Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) and the autocorrelation function (Acf) of the Imf linked to instability. The estimation of the proposed parameter can be achieved. The current methodology was validated with simulated signals of the studied model. (Author)

  1. Linear and nonlinear stability analysis in BWRs applying a reduced order model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olvera G, O. A.; Espinosa P, G.; Prieto G, A.

    2016-09-01

    Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) stability studies are generally conducted through nonlinear reduced order models (Rom) employing various techniques such as bifurcation analysis and time domain numerical integration. One of those models used for these studies is the March-Leuba Rom. Such model represents qualitatively the dynamic behavior of a BWR through a one-point reactor kinetics, a one node representation of the heat transfer process in fuel, and a two node representation of the channel Thermal hydraulics to account for the void reactivity feedback. Here, we study the effect of this higher order model on the overall stability of the BWR. The change in the stability boundaries is determined by evaluating the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. The nonlinear model is also integrated numerically to show that in the nonlinear region, the system evolves to stable limit cycles when operating close to the stability boundary. We also applied a new technique based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition (Emd) to estimate a parameter linked with stability in a BWR. This instability parameter is not exactly the classical Decay Ratio (Dr), but it will be linked with it. The proposed method allows decomposing the analyzed signal in different levels or mono-component functions known as intrinsic mode functions (Imf). One or more of these different modes can be associated to the instability problem in BWRs. By tracking the instantaneous frequencies (calculated through Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) and the autocorrelation function (Acf) of the Imf linked to instability. The estimation of the proposed parameter can be achieved. The current methodology was validated with simulated signals of the studied model. (Author)

  2. Predictive analysis of photodynamic therapy applied to esophagus cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanjul-Vélez, F.; del Campo-Gutiérrez, M.; Ortega-Quijano, N.; Arce-Diego, J. L.

    2008-04-01

    The use of optical techniques in medicine has revolutionized in many cases the medical praxis, providing new tools for practitioners or improving the existing ones in the fight against diseases. The application of this technology comprises mainly two branches, characterization and treatment of biological tissues. Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) provides a solution for malignant tissue destruction, by means of the inoculation of a photosensitizer and irradiation by an optical source. The key factor of the procedure is the localization of the damage to avoid collateral harmful effects. The volume of tissue destroyed depends on the type of photosensitizer inoculated, both on its reactive characteristics and its distribution inside the tissue, and also on the specific properties of the optical source, that is, the optical power, wavelength and exposition time. In this work, a model for PDT based on the one-dimensional diffusion equation, extensible to 3D, to estimate the optical distribution in tissue, and on photosensitizer parameters to take into account the photobleaching effect is proposed. The application to esophagus cancer allows the selection of the right optical source parameters, like irradiance, wavelength or exposition time, in order to predict the area of tissue destruction.

  3. Prediction of applied forces in handrim wheelchair propulsion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chien-Ju; Lin, Po-Chou; Guo, Lan-Yuen; Su, Fong-Chin

    2011-02-03

    Researchers of wheelchair propulsion have usually suggested that a wheelchair can be properly designed using anthropometrics to reduce high mechanical load and thus reduce pain and damage to joints. A model based on physiological features and biomechanical principles can be used to determine anthropometric relationships for wheelchair fitting. To improve the understanding of man-machine interaction and the mechanism through which propulsion performance been enhanced, this study develops and validates an energy model for wheelchair propulsion. Kinematic data obtained from ten able-bodied and ten wheelchair-dependent users during level propulsion at an average velocity of 1m/s were used as the input of a planar model with the criteria of increasing efficiency and reducing joint load. Results demonstrate that for both experienced and inexperienced users, predicted handrim contact forces agree with experimental data through an extensive range of the push. Significant deviations that were mostly observed in the early stage of the push phase might result from the lack of consideration of muscle dynamics and wrist joint biomechanics. The proposed model effectively verified the handrim contact force patterns during dynamic propulsion. Users do not aim to generate mechanically most effective forces to avoid high loadings on the joints. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting the stability of horizontal wells and multi-laterals - the role of in situ stress and rock properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moos, A.; Peska, P. [GeoMechanics International (United States); Zoback, M. D. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    A new suite of software tools, developed to study wellbore stability in a wide variety of geologic environments is introduced as means by which to accurately predict optimally-stable wellbore trajectories from knowledge of the stress tensor. In step one of the process stress, is determined from observations of failure in existing wells; in step two, this knowledge is applied to predict the stability of proposed wells while drilling, as well as later during production. Three case studies are presented to illustrate use of this approach. The examples concentrate on issues related to the stability of highly inclined wells, but the approach can be used to determine the state of stress for other purposes as well. 21 refs., 8 figs.

  5. Operational stability prediction in milling based on impact tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Adam K.; Hajdu, David; Bachrathy, Daniel; Stepan, Gabor

    2018-03-01

    Chatter detection is usually based on the analysis of measured signals captured during cutting processes. These techniques, however, often give ambiguous results close to the stability boundaries, which is a major limitation in industrial applications. In this paper, an experimental chatter detection method is proposed based on the system's response for perturbations during the machining process, and no system parameter identification is required. The proposed method identifies the dominant characteristic multiplier of the periodic dynamical system that models the milling process. The variation of the modulus of the largest characteristic multiplier can also be monitored, the stability boundary can precisely be extrapolated, while the manufacturing parameters are still kept in the chatter-free region. The method is derived in details, and also verified experimentally in laboratory environment.

  6. Stability Prediction of Polymeric Suspensions of some Fluoroquinolones

    OpenAIRE

    Subhashree Sahoo; Chandra Kanti Chakraborti; Pradipta Kumar Behera

    2014-01-01

    Considering the importance of physical stability, zeta potential values, percentage volume of sedimentation and redispersibility of polymeric suspensions of some fluoroquinolones like Ciprofloxacin (Cipro) and Ofloxacin (Oflox) were measured. These formulations were prepared using two grades of Carbopol polymer such as C934 and C940; and Hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC). Above mentioned values of each suspension was determined by following standard methods. The results of those experiment...

  7. Prediction and Stability of Reading Problems in Middle Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchey, Kristen D.; Silverman, Rebecca D.; Schatschneider, Christopher; Speece, Deborah L.

    2015-01-01

    The longitudinal prediction of reading problems from fourth grade to sixth grade was investigated with a sample of 173 students. Reading problems at the end of sixth grade were defined by significantly below average performance (= 15th percentile) on reading factors defining word reading, fluency, and reading comprehension. Sixth grade poor reader…

  8. Accurate prediction of stability changes in protein mutants by combining machine learning with structure based computational mutagenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masso, Majid; Vaisman, Iosif I

    2008-09-15

    Accurate predictive models for the impact of single amino acid substitutions on protein stability provide insight into protein structure and function. Such models are also valuable for the design and engineering of new proteins. Previously described methods have utilized properties of protein sequence or structure to predict the free energy change of mutants due to thermal (DeltaDeltaG) and denaturant (DeltaDeltaG(H2O)) denaturations, as well as mutant thermal stability (DeltaT(m)), through the application of either computational energy-based approaches or machine learning techniques. However, accuracy associated with applying these methods separately is frequently far from optimal. We detail a computational mutagenesis technique based on a four-body, knowledge-based, statistical contact potential. For any mutation due to a single amino acid replacement in a protein, the method provides an empirical normalized measure of the ensuing environmental perturbation occurring at every residue position. A feature vector is generated for the mutant by considering perturbations at the mutated position and it's ordered six nearest neighbors in the 3-dimensional (3D) protein structure. These predictors of stability change are evaluated by applying machine learning tools to large training sets of mutants derived from diverse proteins that have been experimentally studied and described. Predictive models based on our combined approach are either comparable to, or in many cases significantly outperform, previously published results. A web server with supporting documentation is available at http://proteins.gmu.edu/automute.

  9. Synchrophasor-Assisted Prediction of Stability/Instability of a Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha Roy, Biman Kumar; Sinha, Avinash Kumar; Pradhan, Ashok Kumar

    2013-05-01

    This paper presents a technique for real-time prediction of stability/instability of a power system based on synchrophasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs) at generator buses. For stability assessment the technique makes use of system severity indices developed using bus voltage magnitude obtained from PMUs and generator electrical power. Generator power is computed using system information and PMU information like voltage and current phasors obtained from PMU. System stability/instability is predicted when the indices exceeds a threshold value. A case study is carried out on New England 10-generator, 39-bus system to validate the performance of the technique.

  10. Stability of a neural predictive controller scheme on a neural model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luther, Jim Benjamin; Sørensen, Paul Haase

    2009-01-01

    In previous works presenting various forms of neural-network-based predictive controllers, the main emphasis has been on the implementation aspects, i.e. the development of a robust optimization algorithm for the controller, which will be able to perform in real time. However, the stability issue....... The resulting controller is tested on a nonlinear pneumatic servo system.......In previous works presenting various forms of neural-network-based predictive controllers, the main emphasis has been on the implementation aspects, i.e. the development of a robust optimization algorithm for the controller, which will be able to perform in real time. However, the stability issue...... has not been addressed specifically for these controllers. On the other hand a number of results concerning the stability of receding horizon controllers on a nonlinear system exist. In this paper we present a proof of stability for a predictive controller controlling a neural network model...

  11. Selectivity and stability of vegetation-applied herbicides in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Barakova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. An experiment was carried out during 2013 – 2015 in the experimental field of the Field Crops Institute, Chirpan, with two cotton cultivars − Helius and Darmi (Gossypium hirsutum L.. Herbicides: Goal 2 E, oxyfluorfen (80 ml/da; Linuron 45 SC, linuron (200 ml/da; Wing-P, pendimethalin + dimethenamid (400 ml/da; Merlin 750 WG, isoxaflutol (5 g/da; Bazagran 480 SL, bentazone (150 ml/da were investigated. They were treated separately or combined with growth regulator Amalgerol (500 ml/da or foliar fertilizer Lactofol O (500 ml/da in the budding stage of the cotton. It was established that selectivity is the lowest in the two cotton cultivars with herbicides Linuron 45 CK and Merlin 750 WG. The purpose of this investigation was to establish the selectivity and stability of some herbicides and their tank mixtures on the cotton by influence of different meteorological conditions. It has been found that the highest phytotoxicity on cotton is given the vegetation-applied herbicides Merlin and Linuron. Foliar fertilizer Laktofol O reduces phytotoxicity of herbicides Goal, Wing, Merlin and Bazagran in two cotton cultivars. Herbicides Wing and Bazagran have excellent selectivity for the two cotton cultivars – Helius and Darmi. The highest yield was obtained by vegetation treatment with herbicide Bazagran, followed by herbicides Wing and Goal. Tank mixtures of Goal, Bazagran and Wing with Laktofol, followed by those with Amalgerol are technologically the most valuable. They combine high yield with high stability over the years. Аlone application of herbicides Linuron and Merlin and their tank mixtures with Amalgerol and Laktofol have low estimate.

  12. Development and Application of Predictive Tools for MHD Stability Limits in Tokamaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brennan, Dylan [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Miller, G. P. [Univ. of Tulsa, Tulsa, AZ (United States)

    2016-10-03

    This is a project to develop and apply analytic and computational tools to answer physics questions relevant to the onset of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities in toroidal magnetic confinement plasmas. The focused goal of the research is to develop predictive tools for these instabilities, including an inner layer solution algorithm, a resistive wall with control coils, and energetic particle effects. The production phase compares studies of instabilities in such systems using analytic techniques, PEST- III and NIMROD. Two important physics puzzles are targeted as guiding thrusts for the analyses. The first is to form an accurate description of the physics determining whether the resistive wall mode or a tearing mode will appear first as β is increased at low rotation and low error fields in DIII-D. The second is to understand the physical mechanism behind recent NIMROD results indicating strong damping and stabilization from energetic particle effects on linear resistive modes. The work seeks to develop a highly relevant predictive tool for ITER, advance the theoretical description of this physics in general, and analyze these instabilities in experiments such as ASDEX Upgrade, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U and NTSX. The awardee on this grant is the University of Tulsa. The research efforts are supervised principally by Dr. Brennan. Support is included for two graduate students, and a strong collaboration with Dr. John M. Finn of LANL. The work includes several ongoing collaborations with General Atomics, PPPL, and the NIMROD team, among others.

  13. Development and Application of Predictive Tools for MHD Stability Limits in Tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brennan, Dylan; Miller, G. P.

    2016-01-01

    This is a project to develop and apply analytic and computational tools to answer physics questions relevant to the onset of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities in toroidal magnetic confinement plasmas. The focused goal of the research is to develop predictive tools for these instabilities, including an inner layer solution algorithm, a resistive wall with control coils, and energetic particle effects. The production phase compares studies of instabilities in such systems using analytic techniques, PEST- III and NIMROD. Two important physics puzzles are targeted as guiding thrusts for the analyses. The first is to form an accurate description of the physics determining whether the resistive wall mode or a tearing mode will appear first as β is increased at low rotation and low error fields in DIII-D. The second is to understand the physical mechanism behind recent NIMROD results indicating strong damping and stabilization from energetic particle effects on linear resistive modes. The work seeks to develop a highly relevant predictive tool for ITER, advance the theoretical description of this physics in general, and analyze these instabilities in experiments such as ASDEX Upgrade, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U and NTSX. The awardee on this grant is the University of Tulsa. The research efforts are supervised principally by Dr. Brennan. Support is included for two graduate students, and a strong collaboration with Dr. John M. Finn of LANL. The work includes several ongoing collaborations with General Atomics, PPPL, and the NIMROD team, among others.

  14. Emotion dysregulation and social competence: stability, change and predictive power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkovits, L D; Baker, B L

    2014-08-01

    Social difficulties are closely linked to emotion dysregulation among children with typical development (TD). Children with developmental delays (DD) are at risk for poor social outcomes, but the relationship between social and emotional development within this population is not well understood. The current study examines the extent to which emotion dysregulation is related to social problems across middle childhood among children with TD or DD. Children with TD (IQ ≥ 85, n = 113) and children with DD (IQ ≤ 75, n = 61) participated in a longitudinal study. Annual assessments were completed at ages 7, 8 and 9 years. At each assessment, mothers reported on children's emotion dysregulation, and both mothers and teachers reported on children's social difficulties. Children with DD had higher levels of emotion dysregulation and social problems at each age than those with TD. Emotion dysregulation and social problems were significantly positively correlated within both TD and DD groups using mother report of social problems, and within the TD group using teacher report of social problems. Among children with TD, emotion dysregulation consistently predicted change in social problems from one year to the next. However, among children with DD, emotion dysregulation offered no unique prediction value above and beyond current social problems. Results suggested that the influence of emotion regulation abilities on social development may be a less salient pathway for children with DD. These children may have more influences, beyond emotion regulation, on their social behaviour, highlighting the importance of directly targeting social skill deficits among children with DD in order to ameliorate their social difficulties. © 2013 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi; hide

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture

  16. Hypothesis for prediction of environmental stability of chemicals by mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tremolada, P; Di Guardo, A; Calamari, D; Davoli, E; Fanelli, R [Milan Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Entomologia Agraria Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Milan (Italy)

    1992-01-01

    The environmental persistence of organic chemicals is generally very hard to predict. In this work, the hypothesis of the use of fragmentation data in Mass Spectrometry (MS) as a possible 'stability index' of the molecules is presented. Since the fragmentation is determined by the thermodynamic properties of the molecules, it is possible to deduct information about the 'intrinsic stability' of a chemical. Such information can be used and correlated to predict the environmental degradability of a substance, especially referring to abiotic degradation. To study this relation, three different methods of measuring the fragmentation patterns are compared. All the methods show similar behaviour and one of them, in particular, shows a very good qualitative correlation between fragmentation data and persistence values found in literature. A possible 'stability index' for the quantitative prediction of the environmental degradation of a chemical is discussed.

  17. Prediction of incidence and stability of alcohol use disorders by latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

    2017-10-01

    Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Virtual Inertia Control-Based Model Predictive Control for Microgrid Frequency Stabilization Considering High Renewable Energy Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thongchart Kerdphol

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy sources (RESs, such as wind and solar generations, equip inverters to connect to the microgrids. These inverters do not have any rotating mass, thus lowering the overall system inertia. This low system inertia issue could affect the microgrid stability and resiliency in the situation of uncertainties. Today’s microgrids will become unstable if the capacity of RESs become larger and larger, leading to the weakening of microgrid stability and resilience. This paper addresses a new concept of a microgrid control incorporating a virtual inertia system based on the model predictive control (MPC to emulate virtual inertia into the microgrid control loop, thus stabilizing microgrid frequency during high penetration of RESs. The additional controller of virtual inertia is applied to the microgrid, employing MPC with virtual inertia response. System modeling and simulations are carried out using MATLAB/Simulink® software. The simulation results confirm the superior robustness and frequency stabilization effect of the proposed MPC-based virtual inertia control in comparison to the fuzzy logic system and conventional virtual inertia control in a system with high integration of RESs. The proposed MPC-based virtual inertia control is able to improve the robustness and frequency stabilization of the microgrid effectively.

  19. The use of stability indices in predicting asphaltene problems in upstream and downstream oil operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asomaning, S. [Baker Petrolite, Sugar Land, TX (United States)

    2003-07-01

    A series of test methods have been developed to determine the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils. They were developed due to the high cost of remediating asphaltene deposition in offshore operations. This study described the characteristics of the Oliensis Spot Test, two saturates, aromatics, resins and asphaltenes (SARA)-based screens (the Colloidal Instability Index and Asphaltene-Resin ratio), a solvent titration method with near infrared radiation (NIR) solids detection, and live oil depressurization. Each method is used to predict the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils with different API gravity. A complete description of the test methods was provided along with experimental data. The effectiveness of the different tests in predicting the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils was also assessed. Results indicate that the prediction of a crude oil's tendency towards asphaltene precipitation was more accurate with the Colloidal Instability Index and the solvent titration method. Live oil depressurization proved to be very effective in predicting the stability of asphaltenes for light oils, where most stability tests fail. tabs., figs.

  20. Utility of the Instability Severity Index Score in Predicting Failure After Arthroscopic Anterior Stabilization of the Shoulder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phadnis, Joideep; Arnold, Christine; Elmorsy, Ahmed; Flannery, Mark

    2015-08-01

    The redislocation rate after arthroscopic stabilization for anterior glenohumeral instability is up to 30%. The Instability Severity Index Score (ISIS) was developed to preoperatively rationalize the risk of failure, but it has not yet been validated by an independent group. To assess the utility of the ISIS in predicting failure of arthroscopic anterior shoulder stabilization and to identify other preoperative factors for failure. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A case-control study was performed on 141 consecutive patients, comparing those who suffered failure of arthroscopic stabilization with those who had successful arthroscopic stabilization. The mean follow-up time was 47 months (range, 24-132 months). The ISIS was applied retrospectively, and an analysis was performed to establish independent risk factors for failure. A receiver operator coefficient curve was constructed to set a threshold ISIS for considering alternative surgery. Of 141 patients, 19 (13.5%) suffered recurrent instability. The mean ISIS of the failed stabilization group was higher than that of the successful stabilization group (5.1 vs 1.7; P surgery (P < .001), age at first dislocation (P = .01), competitive-level participation in sports (P < .001), and participation in contact or overhead sports (P = .03). The presence of glenoid bone loss carried the highest risk of failure (70%). There was a 70% risk of failure if the ISIS was ≥4, as opposed to a 4% risk of failure if the ISIS was <4. This is the first completely independent study to confirm that the ISIS is a useful preoperative tool. It is recommended that surgeons consider alternative forms of stabilization if the ISIS is ≥4. © 2015 The Author(s).

  1. The practice of prediction: What can ecologists learn from applied, ecology-related fields?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennekamp, Frank; Adamson, Matthew; Petchey, Owen L; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Aguiar, Maira; Kooi, Bob W.; Botkin, Daniel B.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2017-01-01

    The pervasive influence of human induced global environmental change affects biodiversity across the globe, and there is great uncertainty as to how the biosphere will react on short and longer time scales. To adapt to what the future holds and to manage the impacts of global change, scientists need to predict the expected effects with some confidence and communicate these predictions to policy makers. However, recent reviews found that we currently lack a clear understanding of how predictable ecology is, with views seeing it as mostly unpredictable to potentially predictable, at least over short time frames. However, in applied, ecology-related fields predictions are more commonly formulated and reported, as well as evaluated in hindsight, potentially allowing one to define baselines of predictive proficiency in these fields. We searched the literature for representative case studies in these fields and collected information about modeling approaches, target variables of prediction, predictive proficiency achieved, as well as the availability of data to parameterize predictive models. We find that some fields such as epidemiology achieve high predictive proficiency, but even in the more predictive fields proficiency is evaluated in different ways. Both phenomenological and mechanistic approaches are used in most fields, but differences are often small, with no clear superiority of one approach over the other. Data availability is limiting in most fields, with long-term studies being rare and detailed data for parameterizing mechanistic models being in short supply. We suggest that ecologists adopt a more rigorous approach to report and assess predictive proficiency, and embrace the challenges of real world decision making to strengthen the practice of prediction in ecology.

  2. Non-linear effects in electron cyclotron current drive applied for the stabilization of neoclassical tearing modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ayten, B.; Westerhof, E.; ASDEX Upgrade team,

    2014-01-01

    Due to the smallness of the volumes associated with the flux surfaces around the O-point of a magnetic island, the electron cyclotron power density applied inside the island for the stabilization of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) can exceed the threshold for non-linear effects as derived

  3. Cy3 and Cy5 dyes attached to oligonucleotide terminus stabilize DNA duplexes: predictive thermodynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Bernardo G; You, Yong; Owczarzy, Richard

    2015-03-01

    Cyanine dyes are important chemical modifications of oligonucleotides exhibiting intensive and stable fluorescence at visible light wavelengths. When Cy3 or Cy5 dye is attached to 5' end of a DNA duplex, the dye stacks on the terminal base pair and stabilizes the duplex. Using optical melting experiments, we have determined thermodynamic parameters that can predict the effects of the dyes on duplex stability quantitatively (ΔG°, Tm). Both Cy dyes enhance duplex formation by 1.2 kcal/mol on average, however, this Gibbs energy contribution is sequence-dependent. If the Cy5 is attached to a pyrimidine nucleotide of pyrimidine-purine base pair, the stabilization is larger compared to the attachment to a purine nucleotide. This is likely due to increased stacking interactions of the dye to the purine of the complementary strand. Dangling (unpaired) nucleotides at duplex terminus are also known to enhance duplex stability. Stabilization originated from the Cy dyes is significantly larger than the stabilization due to the presence of dangling nucleotides. If both the dangling base and Cy3 are present, their thermodynamic contributions are approximately additive. New thermodynamic parameters improve predictions of duplex folding, which will help design oligonucleotide sequences for biophysical, biological, engineering, and nanotechnology applications. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. On predicting the results of applying workflow management in a healthcare context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chermin, B.; Frey, I.A.; Reijers, H.A.; Smeets, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Even though workflow management systems are currently not being applied on a wide scale in healthcare settings, their benefits with respect to operational efficiency and reducing patient risk seem enticing. The authors show how an approach that is rooted in simulation can be useful to predict the

  5. Applying deep bidirectional LSTM and mixture density network for basketball trajectory prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Yu; Yang, Rennong; Chevalier, Guillaume; Shah, Rajiv C.; Romijnders, Rob

    2018-01-01

    Data analytics helps basketball teams to create tactics. However, manual data collection and analytics are costly and ineffective. Therefore, we applied a deep bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) and mixture density network (MDN) approach. This model is not only capable of predicting a

  6. Conscientiousness at the workplace: Applying mixture IRT to investigate scalability and predictive validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egberink, I.J.L.; Meijer, R.R.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2010-01-01

    Mixture item response theory (IRT) models have been used to assess multidimensionality of the construct being measured and to detect different response styles for different groups. In this study a mixture version of the graded response model was applied to investigate scalability and predictive

  7. Conscientiousness in the workplace : Applying mixture IRT to investigate scalability and predictive validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egberink, I.J.L.; Meijer, R.R.; Veldkamp, B.P.

    Mixture item response theory (IRT) models have been used to assess multidimensionality of the construct being measured and to detect different response styles for different groups. In this study a mixture version of the graded response model was applied to investigate scalability and predictive

  8. C code generation applied to nonlinear model predictive control for an artificial pancreas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boiroux, Dimitri; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a method to generate C code from MATLAB code applied to a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithm. The C code generation uses the MATLAB Coder Toolbox. It can drastically reduce the time required for development compared to a manual porting of code from MATLAB to C...

  9. Efficient first-principles prediction of solid stability: Towards chemical accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yubo; Kitchaev, Daniil A.; Yang, Julia; Chen, Tina; Dacek, Stephen T.; Sarmiento-Pérez, Rafael A.; Marques, Maguel A. L.; Peng, Haowei; Ceder, Gerbrand; Perdew, John P.; Sun, Jianwei

    2018-03-01

    The question of material stability is of fundamental importance to any analysis of system properties in condensed matter physics and materials science. The ability to evaluate chemical stability, i.e., whether a stoichiometry will persist in some chemical environment, and structure selection, i.e. what crystal structure a stoichiometry will adopt, is critical to the prediction of materials synthesis, reactivity and properties. Here, we demonstrate that density functional theory, with the recently developed strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional, has advanced to a point where both facets of the stability problem can be reliably and efficiently predicted for main group compounds, while transition metal compounds are improved but remain a challenge. SCAN therefore offers a robust model for a significant portion of the periodic table, presenting an opportunity for the development of novel materials and the study of fine phase transformations even in largely unexplored systems with little to no experimental data.

  10. Stabilizing model predictive control of a gantry crane based on flexible set-membership constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iles, Sandor; Lazar, M.; Kolonic, Fetah; Jadranko, Matusko

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a stabilizing distributed model predictive control of a gantry crane taking into account the variation of cable length. The proposed algorithm is based on the off-line computation of a sequence of 1-step controllable sets and a condition that enables flexible convergence towards

  11. ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE DMC CONTROLLER PERFORMANCE APPLIED TO A FEED-BATCH BIOREACTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. D. RODRIGUES

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available Two control algorithms were implemented in the stabilization of the dissolved oxygen concentration of the penicillin process production phase. A deterministic and nonstructured mathematical model was used, where were considered the balances of cell, substrate, dissolved oxygen and product formation as well as kinetic of the growth, respiration, product inhibition due to excess of substrate, penicillin hydrolyze, yield factors among cell growth, substrate consumption and dissolved oxygen consumption. The bioreactor was operated in a feed-batch way using an optimal strategy for the operational policy. The agitation speed was used as manipulated variable in order to achieve the dissolved oxygen control because it was found to be the most sensitive one. Two types of control configurations were implemented. First, the PID feedback control with the parameters estimated through Modified Simplex optimization method using the IAE index, and second, the DMC predictive control that had as control parameters the model, prediction and control horizons as well as suppression factor and the trajectory parameter. A sensitivity analysis of these two control algorithms was performed using the sample time and dead time as the index to make stability evaluation. Both configurations showed stable performance, however, the predictive one was found to be more robust in relation to the sample time, as well as the dead time variations. This is a very important characteristic to be considered for the implementation of control scheme in real fermentative process

  12. Numerical Prediction of the Influence of Thrust Reverser on Aeroengine's Aerodynamic Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhiqiang, Wang; Xigang, Shen; Jun, Hu; Xiang, Gao; Liping, Liu

    2017-11-01

    A numerical method was developed to predict the aerodynamic stability of a high bypass ratio turbofan engine, at the landing stage of a large transport aircraft, when the thrust reverser was deployed. 3D CFD simulation and 2D aeroengine aerodynamic stability analysis code were performed in this work, the former is to achieve distortion coefficient for the analysis of engine stability. The 3D CFD simulation was divided into two steps, the single engine calculation and the integrated aircraft and engine calculation. Results of the CFD simulation show that with the decreasing of relative wind Mach number, the engine inlet will suffer more severe flow distortion. The total pressure and total temperature distortion coefficients at the inlet of the engines were obtained from the results of the numerical simulation. Then an aeroengine aerodynamic stability analysis program was used to quantitatively analyze the aerodynamic stability of the high bypass ratio turbofan engine. The results of the stability analysis show that the engine can work stably, when the reverser flow is re-ingested. But the anti-distortion ability of the booster is weaker than that of the fan and high pressure compressor. It is a weak link of engine stability.

  13. Radioactive nuclear waste stabilization - Aspects of solid-state molecular engineering and applied geochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haggerty, S. E.

    1983-01-01

    Stabilization techniques for the storage of radioactive wastes are surveyed, with emphasis on immobilization in a primary barrier of synthetic rock. The composition, half-life, and thermal-emission characteristics of the wastes are shown to require thermally stable immobilization enduring at least 100,000 years. Glass materials are determined to be incapable of withstanding the expected conditions, average temperatures of 100-500 C for the first 100 years. The geological-time stability of crystalline materials, ceramics or synthetic rocks, is examined in detail by comparing their components with similar naturally occurring minerals, especially those containing the same radioactive elements. The high-temperature environment over the first 100 years is seen as stabilizing, since it can recrystallize radiation-induced metamicts. The synthetic-rock stabilization technique is found to be essentially feasible, and improvements are suggested, including the substitution of nepheline with freudenbergite and priderite for alkaline-waste stabilization, the maintenance of low oxygen fugacity, and the dilution of the synthetic-rock pellets into an inert medium.

  14. Modelling of flow stabilization by the swirl of a peripheral flow as applied to plasma reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volchkov, E.P.; Lebedev, V.P.; Terekhov, V.I.; Shishkin, N.E.

    2000-01-01

    The gas-swirl stabilization of plasma jets is one of effective methods of its retention in the near-axial area of channels in generators of low-temperature plasma. Except the effect of gas-dynamic compression, the peripheral swirl allows to solve another urgent problem - to protect the reactor walls from the heat influence of the plasma jet. Swirl flows are also used for the flow structure formation and control of the heat and gas-dynamic characteristics of different power devices and apparatuses, using high-temperature working media: in swirl furnaces and burners, in aviation engines, etc. Investigations show that during swirl stabilization the gas-dynamic structure of the flow influences significantly the spatial stability of the plasma column and its characteristics

  15. Transport and stability analyses supporting disruption prediction in high beta KSTAR plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, J.-H.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Park, Y. S.; Berkery, J. W.; Jiang, Y.; Riquezes, J.; Lee, H. H.; Terzolo, L.; Scott, S. D.; Wang, Z.; Glasser, A. H.

    2017-10-01

    KSTAR plasmas have reached high stability parameters in dedicated experiments, with normalized beta βN exceeding 4.3 at relatively low plasma internal inductance li (βN/li>6). Transport and stability analyses have begun on these plasmas to best understand a disruption-free path toward the design target of βN = 5 while aiming to maximize the non-inductive fraction of these plasmas. Initial analysis using the TRANSP code indicates that the non-inductive current fraction in these plasmas has exceeded 50 percent. The advent of KSTAR kinetic equilibrium reconstructions now allows more accurate computation of the MHD stability of these plasmas. Attention is placed on code validation of mode stability using the PEST-3 and resistive DCON codes. Initial evaluation of these analyses for disruption prediction is made using the disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF) code. The present global mode kinetic stability model in DECAF developed for low aspect ratio plasmas is evaluated to determine modifications required for successful disruption prediction of KSTAR plasmas. Work supported by U.S. DoE under contract DE-SC0016614.

  16. StaRProtein, A Web Server for Prediction of the Stability of Repeat Proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongtao; Zhou, Xu; Huang, Meilan

    2015-01-01

    Repeat proteins have become increasingly important due to their capability to bind to almost any proteins and the potential as alternative therapy to monoclonal antibodies. In the past decade repeat proteins have been designed to mediate specific protein-protein interactions. The tetratricopeptide and ankyrin repeat proteins are two classes of helical repeat proteins that form different binding pockets to accommodate various partners. It is important to understand the factors that define folding and stability of repeat proteins in order to prioritize the most stable designed repeat proteins to further explore their potential binding affinities. Here we developed distance-dependant statistical potentials using two classes of alpha-helical repeat proteins, tetratricopeptide and ankyrin repeat proteins respectively, and evaluated their efficiency in predicting the stability of repeat proteins. We demonstrated that the repeat-specific statistical potentials based on these two classes of repeat proteins showed paramount accuracy compared with non-specific statistical potentials in: 1) discriminate correct vs. incorrect models 2) rank the stability of designed repeat proteins. In particular, the statistical scores correlate closely with the equilibrium unfolding free energies of repeat proteins and therefore would serve as a novel tool in quickly prioritizing the designed repeat proteins with high stability. StaRProtein web server was developed for predicting the stability of repeat proteins. PMID:25807112

  17. Applying Machine Learning and High Performance Computing to Water Quality Assessment and Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Ruijian Zhang; Deren Li

    2017-01-01

    Water quality assessment and prediction is a more and more important issue. Traditional ways either take lots of time or they can only do assessments. In this research, by applying machine learning algorithm to a long period time of water attributes’ data; we can generate a decision tree so that it can predict the future day’s water quality in an easy and efficient way. The idea is to combine the traditional ways and the computer algorithms together. Using machine learning algorithms, the ass...

  18. Stability of Closed Loop Controlled Repetitive Periodic System applied to control of CD-Player

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2005-01-01

    In this paper a criterion for stability of specific control scheme for handling linear dynamic control systems with repetitive periodic sensor faults is derived. The given system and control scheme are described and defined. By combining these with the lifting technique a necessary and sufficient...

  19. Stability of colloidal silver nanoparticles trapped in lipid bilayer: effect of lecithin concentration and applied temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barani, Hossein; Montazer, Majid; Braun, Hans-Georg; Dutschk, Victoria

    2014-12-01

    The use of silver nanoparticle on various substrates has been widespread because of its good antibacterial properties that directly depend on the stability of the silver nanoparticles in a colloidal suspension. In this study, the colloidal solutions of the silver nanoparticles were synthesised by a simple and safe method by using lecithin as a stabilising agent and their stability was examined at various temperatures. The effect of the lecithin concentrations on the stability of the synthesised silver nanoparticles was examined from 25 to 80°C at 5°C intervals, by recording the changes in the UV-vis absorption spectra, the hydrodynamic diameter and the light scattering intensity of the silver nanoparticles. In addition, the morphology of the synthesised silver nanoparticles was investigated with the low-voltage scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. The results indicated that increasing temperature caused different changes in the size of the stabilised and the unstabilised silver nanoparticles. The size of the stabilised silver nanoparticles reduced from 38 to 36 nm during increasing temperature, which confirmed good stability.

  20. Stability of colloidal silver nanoparticles trapped in lipid bilayer: effect of lecithin concentration and applied temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barani, H.; Montazer, M.; Braun, H.G.; Dutschk, Victoria

    2014-01-01

    The use of silver nanoparticle on various substrates has been widespread because of its good antibacterial properties that directly depend on the stability of the silver nanoparticles in a colloidal suspension. In this study, the colloidal solutions of the silver nanoparticles were synthesised by a

  1. The efficacy of winter cover crops to stabilize soil inorganic nitrogen after fall-applied anhydrous ammonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Corey; Armstrong, Shalamar

    2015-03-01

    There is a dearth of knowledge on the ability of cover crops to increase the effectiveness of fall-applied nitrogen (N). The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of two cover crop species to stabilize inorganic soil N after a fall application of N. Fall N was applied at a rate of 200 kg N ha into living stands of cereal rye, tillage radish, and a control (no cover crop) at the Illinois State University Research and Teaching Farm in Lexington, Illinois. Cover crops were sampled to determine N uptake, and soil samples were collected in the spring at four depths to 80 cm to determine the distribution of inorganic N within the soil profile. Tillage radish (131.9-226.8 kg ha) and cereal rye (188.1-249.9 kg ha N) demonstrated the capacity to absorb a minimum of 60 to 80% of the equivalent rate of fall-applied N, respectively. Fall applying N without cover crops resulted in a greater percentage of soil NO-N (40%) in the 50- to 80-cm depth, compared with only 31 and 27% when tillage radish and cereal rye were present at N application. At planting, tillage radish stabilized an average of 91% of the equivalent rate of fall-applied N within the 0- to 20-cm, depth compared with 66 and 57% for the cereal rye and control treatments, respectively. This study has demonstrated that fall applying N into a living cover crop stand has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of soil nitrate and to stabilize a greater concentration of inorganic N within the agronomic depths of soil. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  2. Applying Machine Learning and High Performance Computing to Water Quality Assessment and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijian Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Water quality assessment and prediction is a more and more important issue. Traditional ways either take lots of time or they can only do assessments. In this research, by applying machine learning algorithm to a long period time of water attributes’ data; we can generate a decision tree so that it can predict the future day’s water quality in an easy and efficient way. The idea is to combine the traditional ways and the computer algorithms together. Using machine learning algorithms, the assessment of water quality will be far more efficient, and by generating the decision tree, the prediction will be quite accurate. The drawback of the machine learning modeling is that the execution takes quite long time, especially when we employ a better accuracy but more time-consuming algorithm in clustering. Therefore, we applied the high performance computing (HPC System to deal with this problem. Up to now, the pilot experiments have achieved very promising preliminary results. The visualized water quality assessment and prediction obtained from this project would be published in an interactive website so that the public and the environmental managers could use the information for their decision making.

  3. Prediction of slope stability using artificial neural network (case study: Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choobbasti, A J; Farrokhzad, F; Barari, A

    2009-01-01

    Investigations of failures of soil masses are subjects touching both geology and engineering. These investigations call the joint efforts of engineering geologists and geotechnical engineers. Geotechnical engineers have to pay particular attention to geology, ground water, and shear strength of soils in assessing slope stability. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are very sophisticated modeling techniques, capable of modeling extremely complex functions. In particular, neural networks are nonlinear. In this research, with respect to the above advantages, ANN systems consisting of multilayer perceptron networks are developed to predict slope stability in a specified location, based on the available site investigation data from Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran. Several important parameters, including total stress, effective stress, angle of slope, coefficient of cohesion, internal friction angle, and horizontal coefficient of earthquake, were used as the input parameters, while the slope stability was the output parameter. The results are compared with the classical methods of limit equilibrium to check the ANN model's validity. (author)

  4. Model-based chatter stability prediction and detection for the turning of a flexible workpiece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kaibo; Lian, Zisheng; Gu, Fengshou; Liu, Hunju

    2018-02-01

    Machining long slender workpieces still presents a technical challenge on the shop floor due to their low stiffness and damping. Regenerative chatter is a major hindrance in machining processes, reducing the geometric accuracies and dynamic stability of the cutting system. This study has been motivated by the fact that chatter occurrence is generally in relation to the cutting position in straight turning of slender workpieces, which has seldom been investigated comprehensively in literature. In the present paper, a predictive chatter model of turning a tailstock supported slender workpiece considering the cutting position change during machining is explored. Based on linear stability analysis and stiffness distribution at different cutting positions along the workpiece, the effect of the cutting tool movement along the length of the workpiece on chatter stability is studied. As a result, an entire stability chart for a single cutting pass is constructed. Through this stability chart the critical cutting condition and the chatter onset location along the workpiece in a turning operation can be estimated. The difference between the predicted tool locations and the experimental results was within 9% at high speed cutting. Also, on the basis of the predictive model the dynamic behavior during chatter that when chatter arises at some cutting location it will continue for a period of time until another specified location is arrived at, can be inferred. The experimental observation is in good agreement with the theoretical inference. In chatter detection respect, besides the delay strategy and overlap processing technique, a relative threshold algorithm is proposed to detect chatter by comparing the spectrum and variance of the acquired acceleration signals with the reference saved during stable cutting. The chatter monitoring method has shown reliability for various machining conditions.

  5. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/3. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Geology and mechanical stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanfors, R.; Olsson, Paer; Stille, H.

    1997-05-01

    Prior to excavation of the laboratory in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase. The predictions concern five key issues: Geology, groundwater flow, groundwater chemistry, transport of solutes, and mechanical stability. Comparisons between predictions and observations were made during excavation in order to verify the reliability of the pre-investigations. This report presents a comparison between the geological and mechanical stability predictions and observations and an evaluation of data and investigation methods used for the 700-2874 m section of the tunnel. The report is specially highlighting the following conclusions: It is possible to localize major fracture zones during the pre-investigation at shallow (<200 m) depths; A number of minor fracture zones striking NNW-NNE were predicted to be hydraulically important and penetrate the southern area. A number of narrow fracture zone indications - 0.1-1 m wide - striking WNW-NE were mapped in the tunnel and pre-grouted sections confirm hydraulic conductors; It has not been possible to confirm the gently dipping zone EW-5, which was predicted as 'possible', with data from the tunnel; Predictions of the amount of different rock types were generally reliable as regards the major rocks, but the prediction of the distribution in space were poor as regards the minor rock types; The prediction of rock stress orientation corresponds well to the outcome; The prediction of rock quality for the tunnel, while applying the RMR-system, shows good correspondence to the observations made in the tunnel

  6. Implementation of model predictive control for resistive wall mode stabilization on EXTRAP T2R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiadi, A. C.; Brunsell, P. R.; Frassinetti, L.

    2015-10-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) method for stabilization of the resistive wall mode (RWM) in the EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch is presented. The system identification technique is used to obtain a linearized empirical model of EXTRAP T2R. MPC employs the model for prediction and computes optimal control inputs that satisfy performance criterion. The use of a linearized form of the model allows for compact formulation of MPC, implemented on a millisecond timescale, that can be used for real-time control. The design allows the user to arbitrarily suppress any selected Fourier mode. The experimental results from EXTRAP T2R show that the designed and implemented MPC successfully stabilizes the RWM.

  7. Implementation of model predictive control for resistive wall mode stabilization on EXTRAP T2R

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setiadi, A C; Brunsell, P R; Frassinetti, L

    2015-01-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) method for stabilization of the resistive wall mode (RWM) in the EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch is presented. The system identification technique is used to obtain a linearized empirical model of EXTRAP T2R. MPC employs the model for prediction and computes optimal control inputs that satisfy performance criterion. The use of a linearized form of the model allows for compact formulation of MPC, implemented on a millisecond timescale, that can be used for real-time control. The design allows the user to arbitrarily suppress any selected Fourier mode. The experimental results from EXTRAP T2R show that the designed and implemented MPC successfully stabilizes the RWM. (paper)

  8. Optimized Extreme Learning Machine for Power System Transient Stability Prediction Using Synchrophasors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanjun Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new optimized extreme learning machine- (ELM- based method for power system transient stability prediction (TSP using synchrophasors is presented in this paper. First, the input features symbolizing the transient stability of power systems are extracted from synchronized measurements. Then, an ELM classifier is employed to build the TSP model. And finally, the optimal parameters of the model are optimized by using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. The novelty of the proposal is in the fact that it improves the prediction performance of the ELM-based TSP model by using IPSO to optimize the parameters of the model with synchrophasors. And finally, based on the test results on both IEEE 39-bus system and a large-scale real power system, the correctness and validity of the presented approach are verified.

  9. High level model predictive control for plug-and-play process control with stability guaranty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michelsen, Axel Gottlieb; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a method for designing a stabilizing high level model predictive controller for a hierarchical plug- and-play process is presented. This is achieved by abstracting the lower layers of the controller structure as low order models with uncertainty and by using a robust model predictive...... controller for generating the references for these. A simulation example, in which the actuators in a process control system are changed, is reported to show the potential of this approach for plug and play process control....

  10. ESR Study Applied To Thermal Stability Of Radiation-Induced Species Of Solid Ketoprofen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maltar-Strmecki, N.; Katusin-Razem, B.; Razem, D.

    2015-01-01

    Ketoprofen [2-(3-benzoylphenyl) propionic acid] is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug. It has been widely used in human and veterinary medicine. Radiation processing of drugs and its ingredients is recognized as a safe and effective method among the existing technologies for sterilization and protocols that can be found in ISO 11137-1. Radiosterilization of drugs or other medical products by a suitable dose of ionizing radiation conducted in an appropriate environment ensures sterile conditions by destroying or removing vegetative and sporulating microbes from the ingredients or environment. In earlier studies the effects of gamma radiation was evaluated by selected physico-chemical methods and the observations showed that solid ketoprofen is relatively stable toward ionizing irradiation and that radiosterilization might be a suitable method for the sterilization of solid ketoprofen. The studies reported in this work were undertaken to analyse thermal stability of free radicals by accelerated aging method with a view to the determination of shelf-life. The expiration date (shelf-life) of a product is based on evaluation of both, thermal stability of free radicals, as well as on the time evolution of stable radiolysis products. Namely, storage time is determined by the time required by any degradation product in the dosage form to achieve a sufficient level to represent a risk to the patient. This work shows that ESR spectroscopy provides means for determination of thermal stability of radicals induced by gamma-irradiation in solid drugs. Therefore, despite the complex mixture of individual free radicals induced by gamma-irradiation in solid ketoprofen, the overall lifetime of free radicals could be determined by using isothermal and isochronal annealing. This study shows that radicals induced by gamma-irradiation in solid ketoprofen are stable for at least about 6 months. (author).

  11. Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

  12. Color stability of esthetic coatings applied to nickel-titanium archwires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Vinicius Neiva Nunes do REGO

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Color stability is an important feature to be considered when using esthetic coated archwires. Objective To evaluate color changes on the surface of esthetic nickel-titanium archwires coated with Teflon (Ortho Organizers, USA or epoxy resin (Tecnident, Brazil after immersion in staining solution. Material and method Twelve 20-mm-long wire segments were used for each type of coating, which were mounted as two test specimens with a width of 7 mm each. The buccal surface of the archwires was evaluated for fluorescence and color measurements both at baseline and after immersion in a staining solution for 21 days using the VITA Easyshade® Compact spectrophotometer (Model DEASYC220. Differences in total color change according to coating type were compared using an independent samples t-test (p<0.05. The surface characteristics of as-received coated archwires were assessed using scanning electron microscopy. Result Color changes were observed on the esthetic coatings, with a significant difference between the two brands analyzed. Surface analysis revealed flaws such as wear, pitting, elevations, lack of material, granulation, grooves, cracks, and lack of standardization in the coating process in all as-received archwires, but flaws were less evident in epoxy-resin coatings. Conclusion The two esthetic coatings did not show color stability, but Teflon coatings showed a more intense color change than epoxy-resin coatings.

  13. Applied Distributed Model Predictive Control for Energy Efficient Buildings and Ramp Metering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Sarah Muraoka

    suited for nonlinear optimization problems. The parallel computation of the algorithm exploits iterative linear algebra methods for the main linear algebra computations in the algorithm. We show that the splitting of the algorithm is flexible and can thus be applied to various distributed platform configurations. The two proposed algorithms are applied to two main energy and transportation control problems. The first application is energy efficient building control. Buildings represent 40% of energy consumption in the United States. Thus, it is significant to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. The goal is to minimize energy consumption subject to the physics of the building (e.g. heat transfer laws), the constraints of the actuators as well as the desired operating constraints (thermal comfort of the occupants), and heat load on the system. In this thesis, we describe the control systems of forced air building systems in practice. We discuss the "Trim and Respond" algorithm which is a distributed control algorithm that is used in practice, and show that it performs similarly to a one-step explicit DMPC algorithm. Then, we apply the novel distributed primal-dual active-set method and provide extensive numerical results for the building MPC problem. The second main application is the control of ramp metering signals to optimize traffic flow through a freeway system. This application is particularly important since urban congestion has more than doubled in the past few decades. The ramp metering problem is to maximize freeway throughput subject to freeway dynamics (derived from mass conservation), actuation constraints, freeway capacity constraints, and predicted traffic demand. In this thesis, we develop a hybrid model predictive controller for ramp metering that is guaranteed to be persistently feasible and stable. This contrasts to previous work on MPC for ramp metering where such guarantees are absent. We apply a smoothing method to the hybrid model predictive

  14. Study of tape casting of Yttria stabilized zirconia for apply in solid oxide fuel cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santana, Leonardo de Paulo

    2008-01-01

    The hydrogen economy has been risen as new option for supply the growing global demand for energy. A fuel cell is an electrochemical device able to use hydrogen as a energy source. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission is very low so it is ecologically friendly, once energy is produced by a reaction of hydrogen and oxygen. The production of energy from hydrogen fuelled devices can be done even in small unities and in a distributed way. It can bring energy for isolated communities, where traditional energy distribution systems can not be reached. A fuel cell is composed essentially of 3 components: anode, cathode and the electrolyte. In present days, there are many materials proposed for use as electrolyte in fuel cells. Among then, Yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) is the most studied and effectively used in solid oxide fuel cell. Tape casting technology is a cheap, simple and efficient way to cast ceramics slurries in laminates thick enough to be used as components for fuel cells. Considering theses aspects, in this work, ceramic thin film forming was studied using tape casting technology with raw materials prepared from Brazilian zircon ores. It is described in literature that ceramic slurries are generally made from powders with low surface area (often between 0,5 to 10m 2 /g), and the powders used in this study had larger surface area (often between 40 to 80m 2 /g). The use of zeta potential is indicated to study the stability of a suspension of ceramic powders. However, for suspensions with large concentration of solid, it is also necessary to determine the flow curve, because in these conditions, the double electric layer formed during the stabilization of suspensions can be compressed. In the rheological properties study, calcined ceramic powders were classified using a set of ABNT series screens and separated and retained by the de mesh 60 screen. Flow curve of suspension was determined in aqueous suspensions of these powders. For tape casting processing, a binder

  15. Stability analysis of multi-infeed HVDC system applying VSC-HVDC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yan; Chen, Zhe

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a general model of dual infeed HVDC system applying VSC-HVDC, which can be used as an element in large multi infeed HVDC system. The model may have different structure under different grid faults because of the action of breakers. Hence power flow of the system based on this m...

  16. Advanced numerical methods for uncertainty reduction when predicting heat exchanger dynamic stability limits: Review and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longatte, E.; Baj, F.; Hoarau, Y.; Braza, M.; Ruiz, D.; Canteneur, C.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Proposal of hybrid computational methods for investigating dynamical system stability. ► Modeling turbulence disequilibrium due to interaction with moving solid boundaries. ► Providing computational procedure for large size system solution approximation through model reduction. -- Abstract: This article proposes a review of recent and current developments in the modeling and advanced numerical methods used to simulate large-size systems involving multi-physics in the field of mechanics. It addresses the complex issue of stability analysis of dynamical systems submitted to external turbulent flows and aims to establish accurate stability maps applicable to heat exchanger design. The purpose is to provide dimensionless stability limit modeling that is suitable for a variety of configurations and is as accurate as possible in spite of the large scale of the systems to be considered. The challenge lies in predicting local effects that may impact global systems. A combination of several strategies that are suited concurrently to multi-physics, multi-scale and large-size system computation is therefore required. Based on empirical concepts, the heuristic models currently used in the framework of standard stability analysis suffer from a lack of predictive capabilities. On the other hand, numerical approaches based on fully-coupled fluid–solid dynamics system computation remain expensive due to the multi-physics patterns of physics and the large number of degrees of freedom involved. In this context, since experimentation cannot be achieved and numerical simulation is unavoidable but prohibitive, a hybrid strategy is proposed in order to take advantage of both numerical local solutions and empirical global solutions

  17. First Principles Prediction of Structure, Structure Selectivity, and Thermodynamic Stability under Realistic Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ceder, Gerbrand [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Materials and Engineering

    2018-01-28

    Novel materials are often the enabler for new energy technologies. In ab-initio computational materials science, method are developed to predict the behavior of materials starting from the laws of physics, so that properties can be predicted before compounds have to be synthesized and tested. As such, a virtual materials laboratory can be constructed, saving time and money. The objectives of this program were to develop first-principles theory to predict the structure and thermodynamic stability of materials. Since its inception the program focused on the development of the cluster expansion to deal with the increased complexity of complex oxides. This research led to the incorporation of vibrational degrees of freedom in ab-initio thermodynamics, developed methods for multi-component cluster expansions, included the explicit configurational degrees of freedom of localized electrons, developed the formalism for stability in aqueous environments, and culminated in the first ever approach to produce exact ground state predictions of the cluster expansion. Many of these methods have been disseminated to the larger theory community through the Materials Project, pymatgen software, or individual codes. We summarize three of the main accomplishments.

  18. Implicit leadership theories in applied settings: factor structure, generalizability, and stability over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epitropaki, Olga; Martin, Robin

    2004-04-01

    The present empirical investigation had a 3-fold purpose: (a) to cross-validate L. R. Offermann, J. K. Kennedy, and P. W. Wirtz's (1994) scale of Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) in several organizational settings and to further provide a shorter scale of ILTs in organizations; (b) to assess the generalizability of ILTs across different employee groups, and (c) to evaluate ILTs' change over time. Two independent samples were used for the scale validation (N1 = 500 and N2 = 439). A 6-factor structure (Sensitivity, Intelligence, Dedication, Dynamism, Tyranny, and Masculinity) was found to most accurately represent ELTs in organizational settings. Regarding the generalizability of ILTs, although the 6-factor structure was consistent across different employee groups, there was only partial support for total factorial invariance. Finally, evaluation of gamma, beta, and alpha change provided support for ILTs' stability over time.

  19. Model predictive control based on reduced order models applied to belt conveyor system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Li, Xin

    2016-11-01

    In the paper, a model predictive controller based on reduced order model is proposed to control belt conveyor system, which is an electro-mechanics complex system with long visco-elastic body. Firstly, in order to design low-degree controller, the balanced truncation method is used for belt conveyor model reduction. Secondly, MPC algorithm based on reduced order model for belt conveyor system is presented. Because of the error bound between the full-order model and reduced order model, two Kalman state estimators are applied in the control scheme to achieve better system performance. Finally, the simulation experiments are shown that balanced truncation method can significantly reduce the model order with high-accuracy and model predictive control based on reduced-model performs well in controlling the belt conveyor system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Vapor Pressure and Predicted Stability of American Contact Dermatitis Society Core Allergens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jou, Paul C.; Siegel, Paul D.; Warshaw, Erin M.

    2018-01-01

    Background Accurate patch testing is reliant on proper preparation of patch test allergens. The stability of patch test allergens is dependent on several factors including vapor pressure (VP). Objective This investigation reviews the VP of American Contact Dermatitis Society Core Allergens and compares stability predictions based on VP with those established through clinical testing. Methods Standard references were accessed for determining VP in millimeters of mercury and associated temperature in degrees celsius. If multiple values were listed, VP at temperatures that most approximate indoor storage conditions (20°C and 25°C) were chosen. For mixes, the individual component with the highest VP was chosen as the overall VP, assuming that the most volatile substance would evaporate first. Antigens were grouped into low (≤0.001 mm Hg), moderate (0.001 mm Hg), and high (≥1 mm Hg) volatility using arbitrary cutoff values. Conclusions This review is consistent with previously reported data on formaldehyde, acrylates, and fragrance material instability. Given lack of testing data, VP can be useful in predicting patch test compound stability. Measures such as air-tight multidose reagent containers, sealed single-application dispensers, preparation of patches immediately before application, and storage at lower temperatures may remedy some of these issues. PMID:27427821

  1. On the experimental prediction of the stability threshold speed caused by rotating damping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervisch, B.; Derammelaere, S.; Stockman, K.; De Baets, P.; Loccufier, M.

    2016-08-01

    An ever increasing demand for lighter rotating machinery and higher operating speeds results in a raised probability of instabilities. Rotating damping is one of the reasons, instability occurs. Rotating damping, or rotor internal damping, is the damping related to all rotating parts while non-rotating damping appearing in the non-rotating parts. The present study describes a rotating setup, designed to investigate rotating damping experimentally. An efficient experimental procedure is presented to predict the stability threshold of a rotating machine. The setup consists of a long thin shaft with a disk in the middle and clamped boundary conditions. The goal is to extract the system poles as a function of the rotating speed. The real parts of these poles are used to construct the decay rate plot, which is an indication for the stability. The efficiency of the experimental procedure relies on the model chosen for the rotating shaft. It is shown that the shaft behavior can be approximated by a single degree of freedom model that incorporates a speed dependent damping. As such low measurement effort and only one randomly chosen measurement location are needed to construct the decay rate plot. As an excitation, an automated impact hammer is used and the response is measured by eddy current probes. The proposed method yields a reliable prediction of the stability threshold speed which is validated through measurements.

  2. Improved Model for Predicting the Free Energy Contribution of Dinucleotide Bulges to RNA Duplex Stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomcho, Jeremy C; Tillman, Magdalena R; Znosko, Brent M

    2015-09-01

    Predicting the secondary structure of RNA is an intermediate in predicting RNA three-dimensional structure. Commonly, determining RNA secondary structure from sequence uses free energy minimization and nearest neighbor parameters. Current algorithms utilize a sequence-independent model to predict free energy contributions of dinucleotide bulges. To determine if a sequence-dependent model would be more accurate, short RNA duplexes containing dinucleotide bulges with different sequences and nearest neighbor combinations were optically melted to derive thermodynamic parameters. These data suggested energy contributions of dinucleotide bulges were sequence-dependent, and a sequence-dependent model was derived. This model assigns free energy penalties based on the identity of nucleotides in the bulge (3.06 kcal/mol for two purines, 2.93 kcal/mol for two pyrimidines, 2.71 kcal/mol for 5'-purine-pyrimidine-3', and 2.41 kcal/mol for 5'-pyrimidine-purine-3'). The predictive model also includes a 0.45 kcal/mol penalty for an A-U pair adjacent to the bulge and a -0.28 kcal/mol bonus for a G-U pair adjacent to the bulge. The new sequence-dependent model results in predicted values within, on average, 0.17 kcal/mol of experimental values, a significant improvement over the sequence-independent model. This model and new experimental values can be incorporated into algorithms that predict RNA stability and secondary structure from sequence.

  3. Analytical development of disturbed matrix eigenvalue problem applied to mixed convection stability analysis in Darcy media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamed, Haikel Ben; Bennacer, Rachid

    2008-08-01

    This work consists in evaluating algebraically and numerically the influence of a disturbance on the spectral values of a diagonalizable matrix. Thus, two approaches will be possible; to use the theorem of disturbances of a matrix depending on a parameter, due to Lidskii and primarily based on the structure of Jordan of the no disturbed matrix. The second approach consists in factorizing the matrix system, and then carrying out a numerical calculation of the roots of the disturbances matrix characteristic polynomial. This problem can be a standard model in the equations of the continuous media mechanics. During this work, we chose to use the second approach and in order to illustrate the application, we choose the Rayleigh-Bénard problem in Darcy media, disturbed by a filtering through flow. The matrix form of the problem is calculated starting from a linear stability analysis by a finite elements method. We show that it is possible to break up the general phenomenon into other elementary ones described respectively by a disturbed matrix and a disturbance. A good agreement between the two methods was seen. To cite this article: H.B. Hamed, R. Bennacer, C. R. Mecanique 336 (2008).

  4. Stabilization of Pb and As in soils by applying combined treatment with phosphates and ferrous iron.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenidis, Anthimos; Stouraiti, Christina; Papassiopi, Nymphodora

    2010-05-15

    The chemical immobilization of Pb and As in contaminated soil from Lavrion, Greece, using monocalcium phosphate and ferrous sulfate as stabilizing agents was investigated. Monocalcium phosphate was added to contaminated soil at PO(4) to Pb molar ratios equal to 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2.5, whereas ferrous sulfate was added at Fe to As molar ratios equal to 0, 2.5, 5, 10 and 20. Phosphates addition to contaminated soil decreased Pb leachability, but resulted in significant mobilization of As. Simultaneous immobilization of Pb and As was obtained only when soil was treated with mixtures of phosphates and ferrous sulfate. Arsenic uptake by plants was also seen to increase when soil was treated only with phosphates, but co-addition of ferrous sulfate was efficient in maintaining As phytoaccumulation at low levels. The addition of at least 1.5M/M phosphates and 10M/M iron sulfate to soil reduced the dissolved levels of Pb and As in the water extracts to values in compliance with the EU drinking water standards. However, both additives contributed in the acidification of soil, decreasing pH from 7.8 to values as low as 5.6 and induced the mobilization of pH sensitive elements, such as Zn and Cd. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Applying a radiomics approach to predict prognosis of lung cancer patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emaminejad, Nastaran; Yan, Shiju; Wang, Yunzhi; Qian, Wei; Guan, Yubao; Zheng, Bin

    2016-03-01

    Radiomics is an emerging technology to decode tumor phenotype based on quantitative analysis of image features computed from radiographic images. In this study, we applied Radiomics concept to investigate the association among the CT image features of lung tumors, which are either quantitatively computed or subjectively rated by radiologists, and two genomic biomarkers namely, protein expression of the excision repair cross-complementing 1 (ERCC1) genes and a regulatory subunit of ribonucleotide reductase (RRM1), in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of lung cancer patients after surgery. An image dataset involving 94 patients was used. Among them, 20 had cancer recurrence within 3 years, while 74 patients remained DFS. After tumor segmentation, 35 image features were computed from CT images. Using the Weka data mining software package, we selected 10 non-redundant image features. Applying a SMOTE algorithm to generate synthetic data to balance case numbers in two DFS ("yes" and "no") groups and a leave-one-case-out training/testing method, we optimized and compared a number of machine learning classifiers using (1) quantitative image (QI) features, (2) subjective rated (SR) features, and (3) genomic biomarkers (GB). Data analyses showed relatively lower correlation among the QI, SR and GB prediction results (with Pearson correlation coefficients 0.5). Among them, using QI yielded the highest performance.

  6. Natural Analoges as a Check of Predicted Drift Stability at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. Stuckless

    2006-01-01

    Calculations made by the U.S. Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project as part of the licensing of a proposed geologic repository (in southwestern Nevada) for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, predict that emplacement tunnels will remain open with little collapse long after ground support has disintegrated. This conclusion includes the effects of anticipated seismic events. Natural analogues cannot provide a quantitative test of this conclusion, but they can provide a reasonableness test by examining the natural and anthropogenic examples of stability of subterranean openings. Available data from a variety of sources, combined with limited observations by the author, show that natural underground openings tend to resist collapse for millions of years and that anthropogenic subterranean openings have remained open from before recorded history through today. This stability is true even in seismically active areas. In fact, the archaeological record is heavily skewed toward preservation of underground structures relative to those found at the surface

  7. Mother-Child Attachment From Infancy to the Preschool Years: Predicting Security and Stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meins, Elizabeth; Bureau, Jean-François; Fernyhough, Charles

    2018-05-01

    Relations between maternal mind-mindedness (appropriate and nonattuned mind-related comments), children's age-2 perspective-taking abilities, and attachment security at 44 (n = 165) and 51 (n = 128) months were investigated. Nonattuned comments predicted insecure preschool attachment, via insecure 15-month attachment security (44-month attachment) and poorer age-2 perspective-taking abilities (51-month attachment). With regard to attachment stability, higher perspective-taking abilities distinguished the stable secure groups from (a) the stable insecure groups and (b) children who changed from secure to insecure (at trend level). These effects were independent of child gender, stressful life events, and socioeconomic status (SES). The contribution of these findings to our understanding of stability and change in attachment security from infancy to the preschool years is discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  8. Natural Analoges as a Check of Predicted Drift Stability at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Stuckless

    2006-03-10

    Calculations made by the U.S. Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project as part of the licensing of a proposed geologic repository (in southwestern Nevada) for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, predict that emplacement tunnels will remain open with little collapse long after ground support has disintegrated. This conclusion includes the effects of anticipated seismic events. Natural analogues cannot provide a quantitative test of this conclusion, but they can provide a reasonableness test by examining the natural and anthropogenic examples of stability of subterranean openings. Available data from a variety of sources, combined with limited observations by the author, show that natural underground openings tend to resist collapse for millions of years and that anthropogenic subterranean openings have remained open from before recorded history through today. This stability is true even in seismically active areas. In fact, the archaeological record is heavily skewed toward preservation of underground structures relative to those found at the surface.

  9. [Advantages and disadvantages of applying yttrium stabilized zirconium-dioxide post and core restorations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pétercsák, Anita; Radics, Tünde; Hegedus, Csaba

    2014-03-01

    Full ceramic restorations are associated with metal free post and core prosthodontics for teeth with seriously destroyed clinical crowns. Using custom made zirconium-dioxide post and cores can be flattering not only to give a good aesthetic result, but also to provide excellent retention. As none of the post systems stands all demands, prudent planning is mandatory. Our paper deals with favourable and unfavourable conditions as well as common causes of failures of post and core restorations. We took morphological, esthetical and functional considerations that can help to achieve the best results. Amongst them individual anatomic constitution, shape, width and length of the root and root canal, shape of the clinical crown, direction and magnitude of chewing forces are the most important factors. To give examples we present two cases of zirconium-dioxide post and core restorations. In our first case the missing clinical crown and a too wide root canal entrance created a questionable prognosis. To minimize adverse effect of the missing ferrule effect we applied custom-made zirconium-dioxide post and core and an additional abutment. After 7 years the restoration is still functioning. The second case represented a much favourable situation with 1,5 mm clinical crown height. The restoration was a custom-made zirconia post and core and a full-ceramic crown as a single tooth restoration. Although in this case we expected a better prognosis, 15 months later the patient showed up with a post fracture for applying extreme forces on the crown.

  10. The UV-VIS spectrophotometry applied to color and stability study in colored mortars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandre, F. J.

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available In the field of methodologies for color studying, a research of it has been done on colored mortars by applying uv-vis spectrophotometry, instrumental technique which can be used for solid materials works, and previously applied to building materials study. Results obtained show that the mentioned technique permits to evaluate quantitatively and qualitatively colors in an easy and objective way, besides nowadays advantages of the instrumental analysis: digital color register, computerized data processing, and precision and exactness increment in chromatic comparisons.

    Dentro de las metodologías existentes para el estudio del color, se ha realizado una investigación del mismo en morteros coloreados por medio de la espectrofotometría UV-VIS, técnica instrumental que es adaptable al trabajo con materiales sólidos, y que ha sido aplicada anteriormente en el estudio de diversos materiales de construcción. Los resultados obtenidos muestran cómo la citada técnica permite además de evaluar cualitativamente y cuantitativamente los colores de forma sencilla y objetiva, el disponer de las ventajas que conlleva actualmente el análisis instrumental: registro digital del color, tratamiento informatizado de datos y aumento de precisión y exactitud en las comparaciones cromáticas.

  11. Genomic prediction applied to high-biomass sorghum for bioenergy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Amanda Avelar; Pastina, Maria Marta; de Souza, Vander Filipe; da Costa Parrella, Rafael Augusto; Noda, Roberto Willians; Simeone, Maria Lúcia Ferreira; Schaffert, Robert Eugene; de Magalhães, Jurandir Vieira; Damasceno, Cynthia Maria Borges; Margarido, Gabriel Rodrigues Alves

    2018-01-01

    The increasing cost of energy and finite oil and gas reserves have created a need to develop alternative fuels from renewable sources. Due to its abiotic stress tolerance and annual cultivation, high-biomass sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) shows potential as a bioenergy crop. Genomic selection is a useful tool for accelerating genetic gains and could restructure plant breeding programs by enabling early selection and reducing breeding cycle duration. This work aimed at predicting breeding values via genomic selection models for 200 sorghum genotypes comprising landrace accessions and breeding lines from biomass and saccharine groups. These genotypes were divided into two sub-panels, according to breeding purpose. We evaluated the following phenotypic biomass traits: days to flowering, plant height, fresh and dry matter yield, and fiber, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin proportions. Genotyping by sequencing yielded more than 258,000 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers, which revealed population structure between subpanels. We then fitted and compared genomic selection models BayesA, BayesB, BayesCπ, BayesLasso, Bayes Ridge Regression and random regression best linear unbiased predictor. The resulting predictive abilities varied little between the different models, but substantially between traits. Different scenarios of prediction showed the potential of using genomic selection results between sub-panels and years, although the genotype by environment interaction negatively affected accuracies. Functional enrichment analyses performed with the marker-predicted effects suggested several interesting associations, with potential for revealing biological processes relevant to the studied quantitative traits. This work shows that genomic selection can be successfully applied in biomass sorghum breeding programs.

  12. Performance and Stability Enhancement of Perovskite-Type Nanomaterials Applied for Carbon Capture Utilizing Oxyfuel Combustion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuwan Shen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A new series of Ba-Co-Operovskite-type oxygen carriers has been successfully synthesized by the microwave-assisted sol-gel method and further applied for producing an O2/CO2 mixture gas. The oxygen adsorption/desorption performance of synthesized samples was studied in a fixed-bed reactor system. Effects of A/B-site substitution on the oxygen desorption performance of Ba-Co-O–based perovskites are also included. Furthermore, the effects of operating conditions including the adsorption time and temperature as well as the desorption temperature on oxygen production performance were investigated in detail. The results indicated that BaCoO3-δ exhibited an excellent oxygen desorption performance among the synthesized A/B-site–substituted ACoO3-δ and BaBO3-δ samples, and that the optimal adsorption time, adsorption temperature and desorption temperatureforBaCoO3-δ were determined to be 20min, 850◦Cand850◦C, respectively, in this study.

  13. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  14. Statistical prediction of far-field wind-turbine noise, with probabilistic characterization of atmospheric stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kelly, Mark C.; Barlas, Emre; Sogachev, Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Here we provide statistical low-order characterization of noise propagation from a single wind turbine, as affected by mutually interacting turbine wake and environmental conditions. This is accomplished via a probabilistic model, applied to an ensemble of atmospheric conditions based upon......; the latter solves Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations of momentum and temperature, including the effects of stability and the ABL depth, along with the drag due to the wind turbine. Sound levels are found to be highest downwind for modestly stable conditions not atypical of mid-latitude climates...

  15. Nonlinear Model-Based Predictive Control applied to Large Scale Cryogenic Facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Blanco Vinuela, Enrique; de Prada Moraga, Cesar

    2001-01-01

    The thesis addresses the study, analysis, development, and finally the real implementation of an advanced control system for the 1.8 K Cooling Loop of the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) accelerator. The LHC is the next accelerator being built at CERN (European Center for Nuclear Research), it will use superconducting magnets operating below a temperature of 1.9 K along a circumference of 27 kilometers. The temperature of these magnets is a control parameter with strict operating constraints. The first control implementations applied a procedure that included linear identification, modelling and regulation using a linear predictive controller. It did improve largely the overall performance of the plant with respect to a classical PID regulator, but the nature of the cryogenic processes pointed out the need of a more adequate technique, such as a nonlinear methodology. This thesis is a first step to develop a global regulation strategy for the overall control of the LHC cells when they will operate simultaneously....

  16. A rapid colorimetric method for predicting the storage stability of middle distillate fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marshman, S.J. [Defense Research Agency, Surrey (United Kingdom)

    1995-05-01

    Present methods used to predict the storage stability of distillate fuels such as ASTM D2274, ASTM D4625, DEF STAN 05-50 Method 40 and in-house methods are very time consuming, taking a minimum of 16 hours. In addition, some of these methods under- or over-predict the storage stability of the test fuel. A rapid colorimetric test for identifying cracked, straight run or hydrofined fuels was reported at the previous Conference. Further work has shown that while a visual appraisal is acceptable for refinery-fresh fuels, colour development may be masked by other coloured compounds in older fuels. Use of a spectrometric finish to the method has extended the scope of the method to include older fuels. The test can be correlated with total sediment from ASTM D4625 (13 weeks at 43{degrees}C) over a sediment range of 0-60mg/L. A correlation of 0.94 was obtained for 40 fuels.

  17. Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Robert J B; Goodwill, Alasdair M; Hanson, R Karl; Dahle, Klaus-Peter

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying rasch analysis in predicting of cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Doo Han; Lee, Jae Shin

    2016-07-01

    [Purpose] This study examined the clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying Rasch analysis for predicting the level of cognitive impairment. [Subjects and Methods] A total of 187 stroke patients with cognitive impairment were enrolled in this study. The 187 patients were evaluated by the clock drawing test developed through Rasch analysis along with the mini-mental state examination of cognitive evaluation tool. An analysis of the variance was performed to examine the significance of the mini-mental state examination and the clock drawing test according to the general characteristics of the subjects. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to determine the cutoff point for cognitive impairment and to calculate the sensitivity and specificity values. [Results] The results of comparison of the clock drawing test with the mini-mental state showed significant differences in according to gender, age, education, and affected side. A total CDT of 10.5, which was selected as the cutoff point to identify cognitive impairement, showed a sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, positive predictive, and negative predicive values of 86.4%, 91.5%, 0.8, 95%, and 88.2%. [Conclusion] The clock drawing test is believed to be useful in assessments and interventions based on its excellent ability to identify cognitive disorders.

  19. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, β=0.68; women’s, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men’s, β=0.12; women’s, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly. PMID:25258524

  20. Lifetime prediction of EC, DPA, akardite II and MNA stabilized triple base propellants, comparison of heat generation rate and stabilizer consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boers, M.N.; Klerk, W.P.C. de

    2005-01-01

    A lifetime prediction study is carried out on four triple base propellant compositions by artificial ageing. The ageing effects are studied with High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) and Heat Flow Calorimetry (HFC) in order to find the most effective stabilizer and to evaluate the advantages

  1. Lifetime prediction of EC, DPA, Akardite II and MNA stabilized triple base propellants, comparison of heat generation rate and stabilizer consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boers, Marco N.; Klerk, Willem (Wim) P.C. de [TNO Defence, Security and Safety, P. O. Box 45, 2280 AA Rijswijk ZH (Netherlands)

    2005-10-01

    A lifetime prediction study is carried out on four triple base propellant compositions by artificial ageing. The ageing effects are studied with High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) and Heat Flow Calorimetry (HFC) in order to find the most effective stabilizer and to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. (Abstract Copyright [2005], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  2. A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

    2014-11-01

    The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.

  3. Evaluation of microwave oven heating for prediction of drug-excipient compatibilities and accelerated stability studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schou-Pedersen, Anne Marie V; Østergaard, Jesper; Cornett, Claus; Hansen, Steen Honoré

    2015-05-15

    Microwave ovens have been used extensively in organic synthesis in order to accelerate reaction rates. Here, a set up comprising a microwave oven combined with silicon carbide (SiC) plates for the controlled microwave heating of model formulations has been applied in order to investigate, if a microwave oven is applicable for accelerated drug stability testing. Chemical interactions were investigated in three selected model formulations of drug and excipients regarding the formation of ester and amide reaction products. In the accelerated stability studies, a design of experiments (DoE) approach was applied in order to be able to rank excipients regarding reactivity: Study A: cetirizine with PEG 400, sorbitol, glycerol and propylene glycol. Study B: 6-aminocaproic acid with citrate, acetate, tartrate and gluconate. Study C: atenolol with citric, tartaric, malic, glutaric, and sorbic acid. The model formulations were representative for oral solutions (co-solvents), parenteral solutions (buffer species) and solid dosage forms (organic acids applicable for solubility enhancement). The DoE studies showed overall that the same impurities were generated by microwave oven heating leading to temperatures between 150°C and 180°C as compared to accelerated stability studies performed at 40°C and 80°C using a conventional oven. Ranking of the reactivity of the excipients could be made in the DoE studies performed at 150-180°C, which was representative for the ranking obtained after storage at 40°C and 80°C. It was possible to reduce the time needed for drug-excipient compatibility testing of the three model formulations from weeks to less than an hour in the three case studies. The microwave oven is therefore considered to be an interesting alternative to conventional thermal techniques for the investigation of drug-excipient interactions during preformulation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Stabilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad H. Al-Malack

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fuel oil flyash (FFA produced in power and water desalination plants firing crude oils in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is being disposed in landfills, which increases the burden on the environment, therefore, FFA utilization must be encouraged. In the current research, the effect of adding FFA on the engineering properties of two indigenous soils, namely sand and marl, was investigated. FFA was added at concentrations of 5%, 10% and 15% to both soils with and without the addition of Portland cement. Mixtures of the stabilized soils were thoroughly evaluated using compaction, California Bearing Ratio (CBR, unconfined compressive strength (USC and durability tests. Results of these tests indicated that stabilized sand mixtures could not attain the ACI strength requirements. However, marl was found to satisfy the ACI strength requirement when only 5% of FFA was added together with 5% of cement. When the FFA was increased to 10% and 15%, the mixture’s strength was found to decrease to values below the ACI requirements. Results of the Toxicity Characteristics Leaching Procedure (TCLP, which was performed on samples that passed the ACI requirements, indicated that FFA must be cautiously used in soil stabilization.

  5. Prediction of dynamic cutting force and regenerative chatter stability in inserted cutters milling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhongqun; Liu, Qiang; Yuan, Songmei; Huang, Kaisheng

    2013-05-01

    Currently, the modeling of cutting process mainly focuses on two aspects: one is the setup of the universal cutting force model that can be adapted to a broader cutting condition; the other is the setup of the exact cutting force model that can accurately reflect a true cutting process. However, there is little research on the prediction of chatter stablity in milling. Based on the generalized mathematical model of inserted cutters introduced by ENGIN, an improved geometrical, mechanical and dynamic model for the vast variety of inserted cutters widely used in engineering applications is presented, in which the average directional cutting force coefficients are obtained by means of a numerical approach, thus leading to an analytical determination of stability lobes diagram (SLD) on the axial depth of cut. A new kind of SLD on the radial depth of cut is also created to satisfy the special requirement of inserted cutter milling. The corresponding algorithms used for predicting cutting forces, vibrations, dimensional surface finish and stability lobes in inserted cutter milling under different cutting conditions are put forward. Thereafter, a dynamic simulation module of inserted cutter milling is implemented by using hybrid program of Matlab with Visual Basic. Verification tests are conducted on a vertical machine center for Aluminum alloy LC4 by using two different types of inserted cutters, and the effectiveness of the model and the algorithm is verified by the good agreement of simulation result with that of cutting tests under different cutting conditions. The proposed model can predict the cutting process accurately under a variety of cutting conditions, and a high efficient and chatter-free milling operation can be achieved by a cutting condition optimization in industry applications.

  6. Design of stabilizing output feedback nonlinear model predictive controllers with an application to DC-DC converters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roset, B.J.P.; Lazar, M.; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract—This paper focuses on the synthesis of nonlinear Model Predictive Controllers that can guarantee robustness with respect to measurement noise. The input-to-state stability framework is employed to analyze the robustness of the resulting Model Predictive Control (MPC) closed-loop system. It

  7. Dynamic Data-Driven Prediction of Lean Blowout in a Swirl-Stabilized Combustor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soumalya Sarkar

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses dynamic data-driven prediction of lean blowout (LBO phenomena in confined combustion processes, which are prevalent in many physical applications (e.g., land-based and aircraft gas-turbine engines. The underlying concept is built upon pattern classification and is validated for LBO prediction with time series of chemiluminescence sensor data from a laboratory-scale swirl-stabilized dump combustor. The proposed method of LBO prediction makes use of the theory of symbolic dynamics, where (finite-length time series data are partitioned to produce symbol strings that, in turn, generate a special class of probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA. These PFSA, called D-Markov machines, have a deterministic algebraic structure and their states are represented by symbol blocks of length D or less, where D is a positive integer. The D-Markov machines are constructed in two steps: (i state splitting, i.e., the states are split based on their information contents, and (ii state merging, i.e., two or more states (of possibly different lengths are merged together to form a new state without any significant loss of the embedded information. The modeling complexity (e.g., number of states of a D-Markov machine model is observed to be drastically reduced as the combustor approaches LBO. An anomaly measure, based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, is constructed to predict the proximity of LBO. The problem of LBO prediction is posed in a pattern classification setting and the underlying algorithms have been tested on experimental data at different extents of fuel-air premixing and fuel/air ratio. It is shown that, over a wide range of fuel-air premixing, D-Markov machines with D > 1 perform better as predictors of LBO than those with D = 1.

  8. Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Pilot Vehicle System (PVS) Closed-Loop Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Tanmay Kumar

    Understanding human control behavior is an important step for improving the safety of future aircraft. Considerable resources are invested during the design phase of an aircraft to ensure that the aircraft has desirable handling qualities. However, human pilots exhibit a wide range of control behaviors that are a function of external stimulus, aircraft dynamics, and human psychological properties (such as workload, stress factor, confidence, and sense of urgency factor). This variability is difficult to address comprehensively during the design phase and may lead to undesirable pilot-aircraft interaction, such as pilot-induced oscillations (PIO). This creates the need to keep track of human pilot performance in real-time to monitor the pilot vehicle system (PVS) stability. This work focused on studying human pilot behavior for the longitudinal axis of a remotely controlled research aircraft and using human-in-the-loop (HuIL) simulations to obtain information about the human controlled system (HCS) stability. The work in this dissertation is divided into two main parts: PIO analysis and human control model parameters estimation. To replicate different flight conditions, this study included time delay and elevator rate limiting phenomena, typical of actuator dynamics during the experiments. To study human control behavior, this study employed the McRuer model for single-input single-output manual compensatory tasks. McRuer model is a lead-lag controller with time delay which has been shown to adequately model manual compensatory tasks. This dissertation presents a novel technique to estimate McRuer model parameters in real-time and associated validation using HuIL simulations to correctly predict HCS stability. The McRuer model parameters were estimated in real-time using a Kalman filter approach. The estimated parameters were then used to analyze the stability of the closed-loop HCS and verify them against the experimental data. Therefore, the main contribution of

  9. The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Hernández-Hernández

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

  10. Hybrid model predictive control applied to switching control of burner load for a compact marine boiler design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Andersen, Palle; Maciejowski, Jan

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses the application of hybrid model predictive control to control switching between different burner modes in a novel compact marine boiler design. A further purpose of the present work is to point out problems with finite horizon model predictive control applied to systems for w...

  11. Aespoe Pillar Stability Experiment. Summary of preparatory work and predictive modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, J. Christer

    2004-11-01

    The Aespoe Pillar Stability Experiment, APSE, is a large scale rock mechanics experiment for research of the spalling process and the possibility for numerical modelling of it. The experiment can be summarized in three objectives: Demonstrate the current capability to predict spalling in a fractured rock mass; Demonstrate the effect of backfill (confining pressure) on the rock mass response; and Comparison of 2D and 3D mechanical and thermal predicting capabilities. This report is a summary of the works that has been performed in the experiment prior to the heating of the rock mass. The major activities that have been performed and are discussed herein are: 1) The geology of the experiment drift in general and the experiment volume in particular. 2) The design process of the experiment and thoughts behind some of the important decisions. 3) The monitoring programme and the supporting constructions for the instruments. 4) The numerical modelling, approaches taken and a summary of the predictions. In the end of the report there is a comparison of the results from the different models. Included is also a comparison of the time needed for building, realizing and make changes in the different models

  12. Aespoe HRL - Geoscientific evaluation 1997/3. Results from pre-investigation and detailed site characterization. Comparison of predictions and observations. Geology and mechanical stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanfors, R. [RS Consulting, Lund (Sweden); Olsson, Paer [Skanska AB Stockholm (Sweden); Stille, H. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1997-05-01

    Prior to excavation of the laboratory in 1990 predictions were made for the excavation phase. The predictions concern five key issues: Geology, groundwater flow, groundwater chemistry, transport of solutes, and mechanical stability. Comparisons between predictions and observations were made during excavation in order to verify the reliability of the pre-investigations. This report presents a comparison between the geological and mechanical stability predictions and observations and an evaluation of data and investigation methods used for the 700-2874 m section of the tunnel. The report is specially highlighting the following conclusions: It is possible to localize major fracture zones during the pre-investigation at shallow (<200 m) depths; A number of minor fracture zones striking NNW-NNE were predicted to be hydraulically important and penetrate the southern area. A number of narrow fracture zone indications - 0.1-1 m wide - striking WNW-NE were mapped in the tunnel and pre-grouted sections confirm hydraulic conductors; It has not been possible to confirm the gently dipping zone EW-5, which was predicted as `possible`, with data from the tunnel; Predictions of the amount of different rock types were generally reliable as regards the major rocks, but the prediction of the distribution in space were poor as regards the minor rock types; The prediction of rock stress orientation corresponds well to the outcome; The prediction of rock quality for the tunnel, while applying the RMR-system, shows good correspondence to the observations made in the tunnel. 59 refs, 51 figs, 21 tabs.

  13. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad MH

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Mohamad Hasnan Ahmad,1 Suzana Shahar,2 Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi Teng,2 Zahara Abdul Manaf,2 Noor Ibrahim Mohd Sakian,3 Baharudin Omar41Centre of Nutrition Epidemiology Research, Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2Dietetics Program, 3Occupational Therapy Program, 4Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Abstract: This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala ­Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men and 66.1±5.1 (women years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1 exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women; and 2 the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women. Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (ß=0.60 and perceived behavioral control (ß=0.24 were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (ß=0.82 was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, ß=0.68; women’s, ß=0.24 and subjective norm (men’s, ß=0.12; women’s, ß=0.87 were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (ß=0.36 and women (ß=0.49. “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and

  14. Combining structural modeling with ensemble machine learning to accurately predict protein fold stability and binding affinity effects upon mutation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niklas Berliner

    Full Text Available Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases.

  15. Electric Vehicle Longitudinal Stability Control Based on a New Multimachine Nonlinear Model Predictive Direct Torque Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M’hamed Sekour

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the driving performance and the stability of electric vehicles (EVs, a new multimachine robust control, which realizes the acceleration slip regulation (ASR and antilock braking system (ABS functions, based on nonlinear model predictive (NMP direct torque control (DTC, is proposed for four permanent magnet synchronous in-wheel motors. The in-wheel motor provides more possibilities of wheel control. One of its advantages is that it has low response time and almost instantaneous torque generation. Moreover, it can be independently controlled, enhancing the limits of vehicular control. For an EV equipped with four in-wheel electric motors, an advanced control may be envisaged. Taking advantage of the fast and accurate torque of in-wheel electric motors which is directly transmitted to the wheels, a new approach for longitudinal control realized by ASR and ABS is presented in this paper. In order to achieve a high-performance torque control for EVs, the NMP-DTC strategy is proposed. It uses the fuzzy logic control technique that determines online the accurate values of the weighting factors and generates the optimal switching states that optimize the EV drives’ decision. The simulation results built in Matlab/Simulink indicate that the EV can achieve high-performance vehicle longitudinal stability control.

  16. Prediction of the stability of BWR reactors during the start-up process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz E, J.A.; Castillo D, R.; Blazquez M, J.B.

    2004-01-01

    The Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) are susceptible of uncertainties of power when they are operated to low flows of coolant (W) and high powers (P), being presented this situation mainly in the start-up process. The start-up process could be made but sure if the operator knew the value of the stability index Decay reason (Dr) before going up power and therefore to guarantee the stability. The power and the flow are constantly measures, the index Dr could also be considered its value in real time. The index Dr depends on the power, flow and many other values, such as, the distribution of the flow axial and radial neutronic, the temperature of the feeding water, the fraction of holes and other thermohydraulic and nuclear parameters. A simple relationship of Dr is derived leaving of the pattern reduced of March-Leuba, where three independent variables are had that are the power, the flow and a parameter that it contains the rest of the phenomenology, that is to say all the other quantities that affect the value of Dr. This relationship developed work presently and verified its prediction with data of start-up of commercial reactors could be used for the design of a practical procedure practice of start-up, what would support to the operator to prevent this type of events of uncertainty. (Author)

  17. Stereochemical criteria for prediction of the effects of proline mutations on protein stability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanika Bajaj

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available When incorporated into a polypeptide chain, proline (Pro differs from all other naturally occurring amino acid residues in two important respects. The phi dihedral angle of Pro is constrained to values close to -65 degrees and Pro lacks an amide hydrogen. Consequently, mutations which result in introduction of Pro can significantly affect protein stability. In the present work, we describe a procedure to accurately predict the effect of Pro introduction on protein thermodynamic stability. Seventy-seven of the 97 non-Pro amino acid residues in the model protein, CcdB, were individually mutated to Pro, and the in vivo activity of each mutant was characterized. A decision tree to classify the mutation as perturbing or nonperturbing was created by correlating stereochemical properties of mutants to activity data. The stereochemical properties including main chain dihedral angle phi and main chain amide H-bonds (hydrogen bonds were determined from 3D models of the mutant proteins built using MODELLER. We assessed the performance of the decision tree on a large dataset of 163 single-site Pro mutations of T4 lysozyme, 74 nsSNPs, and 52 other Pro substitutions from the literature. The overall accuracy of this algorithm was found to be 81% in the case of CcdB, 77% in the case of lysozyme, 76% in the case of nsSNPs, and 71% in the case of other Pro substitution data. The accuracy of Pro scanning mutagenesis for secondary structure assignment was also assessed and found to be at best 69%. Our prediction procedure will be useful in annotating uncharacterized nsSNPs of disease-associated proteins and for protein engineering and design.

  18. Stereochemical criteria for prediction of the effects of proline mutations on protein stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajaj, Kanika; Madhusudhan, M S; Adkar, Bharat V; Chakrabarti, Purbani; Ramakrishnan, C; Sali, Andrej; Varadarajan, Raghavan

    2007-12-01

    When incorporated into a polypeptide chain, proline (Pro) differs from all other naturally occurring amino acid residues in two important respects. The phi dihedral angle of Pro is constrained to values close to -65 degrees and Pro lacks an amide hydrogen. Consequently, mutations which result in introduction of Pro can significantly affect protein stability. In the present work, we describe a procedure to accurately predict the effect of Pro introduction on protein thermodynamic stability. Seventy-seven of the 97 non-Pro amino acid residues in the model protein, CcdB, were individually mutated to Pro, and the in vivo activity of each mutant was characterized. A decision tree to classify the mutation as perturbing or nonperturbing was created by correlating stereochemical properties of mutants to activity data. The stereochemical properties including main chain dihedral angle phi and main chain amide H-bonds (hydrogen bonds) were determined from 3D models of the mutant proteins built using MODELLER. We assessed the performance of the decision tree on a large dataset of 163 single-site Pro mutations of T4 lysozyme, 74 nsSNPs, and 52 other Pro substitutions from the literature. The overall accuracy of this algorithm was found to be 81% in the case of CcdB, 77% in the case of lysozyme, 76% in the case of nsSNPs, and 71% in the case of other Pro substitution data. The accuracy of Pro scanning mutagenesis for secondary structure assignment was also assessed and found to be at best 69%. Our prediction procedure will be useful in annotating uncharacterized nsSNPs of disease-associated proteins and for protein engineering and design.

  19. Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear: Reliability of MR Imaging to Predict Stability after Conservative Treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hye Won; Ahn, Jin Hwan; Ahn, Joong Mo; Yoon, Young Cheol; Hong, Hyun Pyo; Yoo, So Young; Kim, Seon Woo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-06-15

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of MR imaging to predict the stability of the torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after complete recovery of the ligament's continuity. Twenty patients with 20 knee injuries (13 males and 7 females; age range, 20 54) were enrolled in the study. The inclusion criteria were a positive history of acute trauma, diagnosis of the ACL tear by both the physical examination and the MR imaging at the initial presentation, conservative treatment, complete recovery of the continuity of the ligament on the follow up (FU) MR images and availability of the KT-2000 measurements. Two radiologists, who worked in consensus, graded the MR findings with using a 3-point system for the signal intensity, sharpness, straightness and the thickness of the healed ligament. The insufficiency of ACL was categorized into three groups according to the KT-2000 measurements. The statistic correlations between the grades of the MR findings and the degrees of ACL insufficiency were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (p < 0.05). The p-values for each category of the MR findings according to the different groups of the KT-2000 measurements were 0.9180 for the MR signal intensity, 1.0000 for sharpness, 0.5038 for straightness and 0.2950 for thickness of the ACL. The MR findings were not significantly different between the different KT-2000 groups. MR imaging itself is not a reliable examination to predict stability of the ACL rupture outcome, even when the MR images show an intact appearance of the ACL.

  20. Stability of executive function and predictions to adaptive behavior from middle childhood to pre-adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madeline eHarms

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The shift from childhood to adolescence is characterized by rapid remodeling of the brain and increased risk-taking behaviors. Current theories hypothesize that developmental enhancements in sensitivity to affective environmental cues in adolescence may undermine executive function (EF and increase the likelihood of problematic behaviors. In the current study, we examined the extent to which EF in childhood predicts EF in early adolescence. We also tested whether individual differences in neural responses to affective cues (rewards/punishments in childhood serve as a biological marker for EF, sensation-seeking, academic performance, and social skills in early adolescence. At age 8, 84 children completed a gambling task while event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded. We examined the extent to which selections resulting in rewards or losses in this task elicited (i the P300, a post-stimulus waveform reflecting the allocation of attentional resources toward a stimulus, and (ii the SPN, a pre-stimulus anticipatory waveform reflecting a neural representation of a hunch about an outcome that originates in insula and ventromedial PFC. Children also completed a Dimensional Change Card-Sort (DCCS and Flanker task to measure EF. At age 12, 78 children repeated the DCCS and Flanker and completed a battery of questionnaires. Flanker and DCCS accuracy at age 8 predicted Flanker and DCCS performance at age 12, respectively. Individual differences in the magnitude of P300 (to losses vs. rewards and SPN (preceding outcomes with a high probability of punishment at age 8 predicted self-reported sensation seeking (lower and teacher-rated academic performance (higher at age 12. We suggest there is stability in EF from age 8 to 12, and that childhood neural sensitivity to reward and punishment predicts individual differences in sensation seeking and adaptive behaviors in children entering adolescence.

  1. Applying deep bidirectional LSTM and mixture density network for basketball trajectory prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; Yang, Rennong; Chevalier, Guillaume; Shah, Rajiv C.; Romijnders, Rob

    2018-04-01

    Data analytics helps basketball teams to create tactics. However, manual data collection and analytics are costly and ineffective. Therefore, we applied a deep bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) and mixture density network (MDN) approach. This model is not only capable of predicting a basketball trajectory based on real data, but it also can generate new trajectory samples. It is an excellent application to help coaches and players decide when and where to shoot. Its structure is particularly suitable for dealing with time series problems. BLSTM receives forward and backward information at the same time, while stacking multiple BLSTMs further increases the learning ability of the model. Combined with BLSTMs, MDN is used to generate a multi-modal distribution of outputs. Thus, the proposed model can, in principle, represent arbitrary conditional probability distributions of output variables. We tested our model with two experiments on three-pointer datasets from NBA SportVu data. In the hit-or-miss classification experiment, the proposed model outperformed other models in terms of the convergence speed and accuracy. In the trajectory generation experiment, eight model-generated trajectories at a given time closely matched real trajectories.

  2. Predicting biopharmaceutical performance of oral drug candidates - Extending the volume to dissolve applied dose concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenster, Uwe; Mueck, Wolfgang; van der Mey, Dorina; Schlemmer, Karl-Heinz; Greschat-Schade, Susanne; Haerter, Michael; Pelzetter, Christian; Pruemper, Christian; Verlage, Joerg; Göller, Andreas H; Ohm, Andreas

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to experimentally deduce pH-dependent critical volumes to dissolve applied dose (VDAD) that determine whether a drug candidate can be developed as immediate release (IR) tablet containing crystalline API, or if solubilization technology is needed to allow for sufficient oral bioavailability. pH-dependent VDADs of 22 and 83 compounds were plotted vs. the relative oral bioavailability (AUC solid vs. AUC solution formulation, Frel) in humans and rats, respectively. Furthermore, in order to investigate to what extent Frel rat may predict issues with solubility limited absorption in human, Frel rat was plotted vs. Frel human. Additionally, the impact of bile salts and lecithin on in vitro dissolution of poorly soluble compounds was tested and data compared to Frel rat and human. Respective in vitro - in vivo and in vivo - in vivo correlations were generated and used to build developability criteria. As a result, based on pH-dependent VDAD, Frel rat and in vitro dissolution in simulated intestinal fluid the IR formulation strategy within Pharmaceutical Research and Development organizations can be already set at late stage of drug discovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Quasi-laminar stability and sensitivity analyses for turbulent flows: Prediction of low-frequency unsteadiness and passive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mettot, Clément; Sipp, Denis; Bézard, Hervé

    2014-04-01

    This article presents a quasi-laminar stability approach to identify in high-Reynolds number flows the dominant low-frequencies and to design passive control means to shift these frequencies. The approach is based on a global linear stability analysis of mean-flows, which correspond to the time-average of the unsteady flows. Contrary to the previous work by Meliga et al. ["Sensitivity of 2-D turbulent flow past a D-shaped cylinder using global stability," Phys. Fluids 24, 061701 (2012)], we use the linearized Navier-Stokes equations based solely on the molecular viscosity (leaving aside any turbulence model and any eddy viscosity) to extract the least stable direct and adjoint global modes of the flow. Then, we compute the frequency sensitivity maps of these modes, so as to predict before hand where a small control cylinder optimally shifts the frequency of the flow. In the case of the D-shaped cylinder studied by Parezanović and Cadot [J. Fluid Mech. 693, 115 (2012)], we show that the present approach well captures the frequency of the flow and recovers accurately the frequency control maps obtained experimentally. The results are close to those already obtained by Meliga et al., who used a more complex approach in which turbulence models played a central role. The present approach is simpler and may be applied to a broader range of flows since it is tractable as soon as mean-flows — which can be obtained either numerically from simulations (Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS), Large Eddy Simulation (LES), unsteady Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS), steady RANS) or from experimental measurements (Particle Image Velocimetry - PIV) — are available. We also discuss how the influence of the control cylinder on the mean-flow may be more accurately predicted by determining an eddy-viscosity from numerical simulations or experimental measurements. From a technical point of view, we finally show how an existing compressible numerical simulation code may be used in

  4. Multiple Linear Regression Modeling To Predict the Stability of Polymer-Drug Solid Dispersions: Comparison of the Effects of Polymers and Manufacturing Methods on Solid Dispersion Stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridgeirsdottir, Gudrun A; Harris, Robert J; Dryden, Ian L; Fischer, Peter M; Roberts, Clive J

    2018-03-29

    Solid dispersions can be a successful way to enhance the bioavailability of poorly soluble drugs. Here 60 solid dispersion formulations were produced using ten chemically diverse, neutral, poorly soluble drugs, three commonly used polymers, and two manufacturing techniques, spray-drying and melt extrusion. Each formulation underwent a six-month stability study at accelerated conditions, 40 °C and 75% relative humidity (RH). Significant differences in times to crystallization (onset of crystallization) were observed between both the different polymers and the two processing methods. Stability from zero days to over one year was observed. The extensive experimental data set obtained from this stability study was used to build multiple linear regression models to correlate physicochemical properties of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) with the stability data. The purpose of these models is to indicate which combination of processing method and polymer carrier is most likely to give a stable solid dispersion. Six quantitative mathematical multiple linear regression-based models were produced based on selection of the most influential independent physical and chemical parameters from a set of 33 possible factors, one model for each combination of polymer and processing method, with good predictability of stability. Three general rules are proposed from these models for the formulation development of suitably stable solid dispersions. Namely, increased stability is correlated with increased glass transition temperature ( T g ) of solid dispersions, as well as decreased number of H-bond donors and increased molecular flexibility (such as rotatable bonds and ring count) of the drug molecule.

  5. Using open source computational tools for predicting human metabolic stability and additional absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rishi R; Gifford, Eric M; Liston, Ted; Waller, Chris L; Hohman, Moses; Bunin, Barry A; Ekins, Sean

    2010-11-01

    Ligand-based computational models could be more readily shared between researchers and organizations if they were generated with open source molecular descriptors [e.g., chemistry development kit (CDK)] and modeling algorithms, because this would negate the requirement for proprietary commercial software. We initially evaluated open source descriptors and model building algorithms using a training set of approximately 50,000 molecules and a test set of approximately 25,000 molecules with human liver microsomal metabolic stability data. A C5.0 decision tree model demonstrated that CDK descriptors together with a set of Smiles Arbitrary Target Specification (SMARTS) keys had good statistics [κ = 0.43, sensitivity = 0.57, specificity = 0.91, and positive predicted value (PPV) = 0.64], equivalent to those of models built with commercial Molecular Operating Environment 2D (MOE2D) and the same set of SMARTS keys (κ = 0.43, sensitivity = 0.58, specificity = 0.91, and PPV = 0.63). Extending the dataset to ∼193,000 molecules and generating a continuous model using Cubist with a combination of CDK and SMARTS keys or MOE2D and SMARTS keys confirmed this observation. When the continuous predictions and actual values were binned to get a categorical score we observed a similar κ statistic (0.42). The same combination of descriptor set and modeling method was applied to passive permeability and P-glycoprotein efflux data with similar model testing statistics. In summary, open source tools demonstrated predictive results comparable to those of commercial software with attendant cost savings. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of open source descriptors and the opportunity for their use as a tool for organizations to share data precompetitively, avoiding repetition and assisting drug discovery.

  6. Applied predictive analytics principles and techniques for the professional data analyst

    CERN Document Server

    Abbott, Dean

    2014-01-01

    Learn the art and science of predictive analytics - techniques that get results Predictive analytics is what translates big data into meaningful, usable business information. Written by a leading expert in the field, this guide examines the science of the underlying algorithms as well as the principles and best practices that govern the art of predictive analytics. It clearly explains the theory behind predictive analytics, teaches the methods, principles, and techniques for conducting predictive analytics projects, and offers tips and tricks that are essential for successful predictive mode

  7. P stabilizes dark matter and with CP can predict leptonic phases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuchimanchi, Ravi

    2014-02-15

    We find that spontaneously broken parity (P) or left-right symmetry stabilizes darkmatter in a beautiful way. If dark matter has a non-real intrinsic parity ±i (e.g. if it entails Majorana fermions), parity can ensure that it cannot decay to all normal particles with real intrinsic parities. However, if Majorana couplings are absent either in the lepton or the dark sector, P symmetry can be redefined to remove relative non-real intrinsic phases. It is therefore predicted that neutrinos and dark matter fermions must have Majorana masses if dark matter is stable due to parity. The strong CP problem is solved by additionally imposing CP and including vectorlike fermions that help generate CP violation. If leptonlike heavy fermions are provided purely imaginary intrinsic parity phase, they do not couple to the usual leptons, and leptonic CP phases are not generated, which is a testable prediction. Experimentally if leptonic CP phases are not found (if they are consistent with 0 or π) it can be evidence for the type of models in this work where CP is spontaneously or softly broken and there is also a second hidden or softly broken symmetry such as P, Z{sub 2} or Z{sub 4}. However, leptonic CP violation can be present in closely related or some nonminimal versions of these models, such as by also including vectorlike leptons with real intrinsic parities. (orig.)

  8. A Method to Predict the Structure and Stability of RNA/RNA Complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaojun; Chen, Shi-Jie

    2016-01-01

    RNA/RNA interactions are essential for genomic RNA dimerization and regulation of gene expression. Intermolecular loop-loop base pairing is a widespread and functionally important tertiary structure motif in RNA machinery. However, computational prediction of intermolecular loop-loop base pairing is challenged by the entropy and free energy calculation due to the conformational constraint and the intermolecular interactions. In this chapter, we describe a recently developed statistical mechanics-based method for the prediction of RNA/RNA complex structures and stabilities. The method is based on the virtual bond RNA folding model (Vfold). The main emphasis in the method is placed on the evaluation of the entropy and free energy for the loops, especially tertiary kissing loops. The method also uses recursive partition function calculations and two-step screening algorithm for large, complicated structures of RNA/RNA complexes. As case studies, we use the HIV-1 Mal dimer and the siRNA/HIV-1 mutant (T4) to illustrate the method.

  9. An eigenstrain approach to predict phase transformation and self-accommodation in partially stabilized zirconia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hensl, Th.; Mühlich, U.; Budnitzki, M.; Kuna, M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Analytical model to predict phase transformation in PSZ is developed. • Analytical model to predict number of twins in monoclinic inclusions in PSZ. • Models consider inclusions size, shape, temperature, remote loading and surface energy. - Abstract: This work focuses on micromechanical modeling of the tetragonal to monoclinic phase transformation (t–m transformation) in partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ). Tetragonal particles dispersed in a cubic matrix may transform into the monoclinic phase under sufficiently high mechanical loading or if the material is cooled down below a critical temperature. This phase transformation is supposed to be responsible for the so called transformation toughening effect of PSZ. The transformation is usually accompanied by a self-accommodation process, which reduces the occurring eigenstresses in the surrounding matrix. The influences of particle size and geometry, chemical driving force, temperature, surface energy and remote loading on the t–m transformation are estimated by a thermostatic approach. We assume, that transformations occur, once the Gibbs free energy of the transformed equilibrium state is lower than that of the untransformed reference state. To obtain an analytical solution, the microstructure is modeled as an inclusion of rectangular cross section, restrained by an infinite elastic matrix, under plane strain conditions. The developed model for phase transformation captures the well-known size and temperature dependencies. Furthermore, it indicates a significant influence of the particle geometry, that large aspect ratios of the inclusion’s cross section lower the trigger stress for phase transformation

  10. Comparing predicted yield and yield stability of willow and Miscanthus across Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren; Jaiswal, Deepak; Bentsen, Niclas Scott

    2016-01-01

    was 12.1 Mg DM ha−1 yr−1 for willow and 10.2 Mg DM ha−1 yr−1 for Miscanthus. Coefficent of variation as a measure for yield stability was poorest on the sandy soils of northern and western Jutland and the year-to-year variation in yield was greatest on these soils. Willow was predicted to outyield...... Miscanthus on poor, sandy soils whereas Miscanthus was higher yielding on clay-rich soils. The major driver of yield in both crops was variation in soil moisture, with radiation and precipitation exerting less influence. This is the first time these two major feedstocks for northern Europe have been compared....... The semi-mechanistic crop model BioCro was used to simulate the production of both short rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus across Denmark. Predictions were made from high spatial resolution soil data and weather records across this area for 1990-2010. The potential average, rain-fed mean yield...

  11. Test Framing Generates a Stability Bias for Predictions of Learning by Causing People to Discount their Learning Beliefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariel, Robert; Hines, Jarrod C.; Hertzog, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    People estimate minimal changes in learning when making predictions of learning (POLs) for future study opportunities despite later showing increased performance and an awareness of that increase (Kornell & Bjork, 2009). This phenomenon is conceptualized as a stability bias in judgments about learning. We investigated the malleability of this effect, and whether it reflected people’s underlying beliefs about learning. We manipulated prediction framing to emphasize the role of testing vs. studying on memory and directly measured beliefs about multi-trial study effects on learning by having participants construct predicted learning curves before and after the experiment. Mean POLs were more sensitive to the number of study-test opportunities when performance was framed in terms of study benefits rather than testing benefits and POLs reflected pre-existing beliefs about learning. The stability bias is partially due to framing and reflects discounted beliefs about learning benefits rather than inherent belief in the stability of performance. PMID:25067885

  12. Prediction of Ryznar Stability Index for Treated Water of WTPs Located on Al-Karakh Side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awatif Soaded Alsaqqar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3 have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For Al-Dora WTP, ANN 3 model could be used as R was 92.8%.

  13. Applying machine learning to predict patient-specific current CD 4 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work shows the application of machine learning to predict current CD4 cell count of an HIV-positive patient using genome sequences, viral load and time. A regression model predicting actual CD4 cell counts and a classification model predicting if a patient's CD4 cell count is less than 200 was built using a support ...

  14. The Development of Mathematical Prediction Model to Predict Resilient Modulus for Natural Soil Stabilized by Pofa-Opc Additive for the Use in Unpaved Road Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamil, Y. M. R.; Bakar, I. H.

    2016-07-01

    Resilient Modulus (Mr) is considered one of the most important parameters in the design of road structure. This paper describes the development of the mathematical model to predict resilient modulus of organic soil stabilized by the mix of Palm Oil Fuel Ash - Ordinary Portland Cement (POFA-OPC) soil stabilization additives. It aims to optimize the use of the use of POFA in soil stabilization. The optimization models enable to eliminate the arbitrary selection and its associated disadvantages in determination of the optimum additive proportion. The model was developed based on Scheffe regression theory. The mix proportions of the samples in the experiment were adopted from similar studies reported in the literature Twenty five samples were designed, prepared and then characterized for each mix proportion based on the MR in 28 days curing. The results are used to develop the mathematical prediction model. The model was statistically analyzed and verified for its adequacy and validity using F-test.

  15. A new rapid high-throughput method for prediction of beer colloidal stability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gabriel, P.; Sladký, P.; Sigler, Karel

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 122, č. 2 (2016), s. 304-309 ISSN 0046-9750 Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : colloidal stability * beer stabilization * forced aging test Subject RIV: GM - Food Processing Impact factor: 0.859, year: 2016

  16. Benchmarking and qualification of the NUFREQ-NPW code for best estimate prediction of multi-channel core stability margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taleyarkhan, R.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.; McFarlane, A.F.; Podowski, M.Z.

    1988-01-01

    The NUFREQ-NPW code was modified and set up at Westinghouse, USA for mixed fuel type multi-channel core-wide stability analysis. The resulting code, NUFREQ-NPW, allows for variable axial power profiles between channel groups and can handle mixed fuel types. Various models incorporated into NUFREQ-NPW were systematically compared against the Westinghouse channel stability analysis code MAZDA-NF, for which the mathematical model was developed, in an entirely different manner. Excellent agreement was obtained which verified the thermal-hydraulic modeling and coding aspects. Detailed comparisons were also performed against nuclear-coupled reactor core stability data. All thirteen Peach Bottom-2 EOC-2/3 low flow stability tests were simulated. A key aspect for code qualification involved the development of a physically based empirical algorithm to correct for the effect of core inlet flow development on subcooled boiling. Various other modeling assumptions were tested and sensitivity studies performed. Good agreement was obtained between NUFREQ-NPW predictions and data. Moreover, predictions were generally on the conservative side. The results of detailed direct comparisons with experimental data using the NUFREQ-NPW code; have demonstrated that BWR core stability margins are conservatively predicted, and all data trends are captured with good accuracy. The methodology is thus suitable for BWR design and licensing purposes. 11 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Whole-genome regression and prediction methods applied to plant and animal breeding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Los Campos, De G.; Hickey, J.M.; Pong-Wong, R.; Daetwyler, H.D.; Calus, M.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Genomic-enabled prediction is becoming increasingly important in animal and plant breeding, and is also receiving attention in human genetics. Deriving accurate predictions of complex traits requires implementing whole-genome regression (WGR) models where phenotypes are regressed on thousands of

  18. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  19. Robust predictive control strategy applied for propofol dosing using BIS as a controlled variable during anesthesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionescu, Clara A.; De Keyser, Robin; Torrico, Bismark Claure; De Smet, Tom; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Normey-Rico, Julio E.

    This paper presents the application of predictive control to drug dosing during anesthesia in patients undergoing surgery. The performance of a generic predictive control strategy in drug dosing control, with a previously reported anesthesia-specific control algorithm, has been evaluated. The

  20. Top-down modulation in human visual cortex predicts the stability of a perceptual illusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meindertsma, Thomas; Hillebrand, Arjan; van Dijk, Bob W.; Lamme, Victor A. F.; Donner, Tobias H.

    2014-01-01

    Conscious perception sometimes fluctuates strongly, even when the sensory input is constant. For example, in motion-induced blindness (MIB), a salient visual target surrounded by a moving pattern suddenly disappears from perception, only to reappear after some variable time. Whereas such changes of perception result from fluctuations of neural activity, mounting evidence suggests that the perceptual changes, in turn, may also cause modulations of activity in several brain areas, including visual cortex. In this study, we asked whether these latter modulations might affect the subsequent dynamics of perception. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure modulations in cortical population activity during MIB. We observed a transient, retinotopically widespread modulation of beta (12–30 Hz)-frequency power over visual cortex that was closely linked to the time of subjects' behavioral report of the target disappearance. This beta modulation was a top-down signal, decoupled from both the physical stimulus properties and the motor response but contingent on the behavioral relevance of the perceptual change. Critically, the modulation amplitude predicted the duration of the subsequent target disappearance. We propose that the transformation of the perceptual change into a report triggers a top-down mechanism that stabilizes the newly selected perceptual interpretation. PMID:25411458

  1. Stability and predictability in younger crystalline rock system: Japanese Islands case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, S.

    2009-01-01

    The Japanese Islands consist of igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks ranging in age from Paleozoic to Cenozoic. Among these, Carboniferous to Paleogene rocks occupy about 60% of the total area of the Japanese Islands. It should be noted that Quaternary volcanic rocks occupy only about 9% of the total area, although Quaternary volcanoes occur throughout the Japanese Islands. Long-term stability and predictability in the rock system are discussed in terms of volcanic activity, active faulting, and plate motion. Volcanic activity in the Japanese Islands is intimately related to subduction of the Pacific Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. The volcanic front related to the Pacific and the Philippine Sea plates has been essentially fixed since about 6 Ma. The main active faults, which are distributed sporadically throughout the Japanese Islands, number about 150 and have been extensively investigated. The modes of the Pacific Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate have been essentially invariable since 10 Ma and 6 Ma, respectively. These lines of evidence imply that volcanism and tectonism in the Japanese Islands will scarcely change for hundreds of thousands of years into the future. It is clear that many places suitable for geological disposal will be present in this rock system. (author)

  2. A Hierarchical Method for Transient Stability Prediction of Power Systems Using the Confidence of a SVM-Based Ensemble Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanzhen Zhou

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Machine learning techniques have been widely used in transient stability prediction of power systems. When using the post-fault dynamic responses, it is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about how long the duration of response data used should be in order to balance the accuracy and speed. Besides, previous studies have the problem of lacking consideration for the confidence level. To solve these problems, a hierarchical method for transient stability prediction based on the confidence of ensemble classifier using multiple support vector machines (SVMs is proposed. Firstly, multiple datasets are generated by bootstrap sampling, then features are randomly picked up to compress the datasets. Secondly, the confidence indices are defined and multiple SVMs are built based on these generated datasets. By synthesizing the probabilistic outputs of multiple SVMs, the prediction results and confidence of the ensemble classifier will be obtained. Finally, different ensemble classifiers with different response times are built to construct different layers of the proposed hierarchical scheme. The simulation results show that the proposed hierarchical method can balance the accuracy and rapidity of the transient stability prediction. Moreover, the hierarchical method can reduce the misjudgments of unstable instances and cooperate with the time domain simulation to insure the security and stability of power systems.

  3. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Morten

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

  4. Benchmarking and qualification of the nufreq-npw code for best estimate prediction of multi-channel core stability margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taleyarkhan, R.; McFarlane, A.F.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.; Podowski, M.Z.

    1988-01-01

    The work described in this paper is focused on the development, verification and benchmarking of the NUFREQ-NPW code at Westinghouse, USA for best estimate prediction of multi-channel core stability margins in US BWRs. Various models incorporated into NUFREQ-NPW are systematically compared against the Westinghouse channel stability analysis code MAZDA, which the Mathematical Model was developed in an entirely different manner. The NUFREQ-NPW code is extensively benchmarked against experimental stability data with and without nuclear reactivity feedback. Detailed comparisons are next performed against nuclear-coupled core stability data. A physically based algorithm is developed to correct for the effect of flow development on subcooled boiling. Use of this algorithm (to be described in the full paper) captures the peak magnitude as well as the resonance frequency with good accuracy

  5. On the comparison of stochastic model predictive control strategies applied to a hydrogen-based microgrid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velarde, P.; Valverde, L.; Maestre, J. M.; Ocampo-Martinez, C.; Bordons, C.

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, a performance comparison among three well-known stochastic model predictive control approaches, namely, multi-scenario, tree-based, and chance-constrained model predictive control is presented. To this end, three predictive controllers have been designed and implemented in a real renewable-hydrogen-based microgrid. The experimental set-up includes a PEM electrolyzer, lead-acid batteries, and a PEM fuel cell as main equipment. The real experimental results show significant differences from the plant components, mainly in terms of use of energy, for each implemented technique. Effectiveness, performance, advantages, and disadvantages of these techniques are extensively discussed and analyzed to give some valid criteria when selecting an appropriate stochastic predictive controller.

  6. Applying Spatial-Temporal Model and Game Theory to Asymmetric Threat Prediction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wei, Mo; Chen, Genshe; Cruz, Jr., Jose B; Haynes, Leonard; Kruger, Martin

    2007-01-01

    .... In most Command and Control "C2" applications, the existing techniques, such as spatial-temporal point models for ECOA prediction or Discrete Choice Model "DCM", assume that insurgent attack features...

  7. Applying machine learning to predict patient-specific current CD4 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Apple apple

    This work shows the application of machine learning to predict current CD4 cell count of an HIV- .... Pre-processing ... remaining data elements of the PR and RT datasets. ... technique based on the structure of the human brain's neuron.

  8. Prediction of pork quality parameters by applying fractals and data mining on MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caballero, Daniel; Pérez-Palacios, Trinidad; Caro, Andrés

    2017-01-01

    This work firstly investigates the use of MRI, fractal algorithms and data mining techniques to determine pork quality parameters non-destructively. The main objective was to evaluate the capability of fractal algorithms (Classical Fractal algorithm, CFA; Fractal Texture Algorithm, FTA and One...... Point Fractal Texture Algorithm, OPFTA) to analyse MRI in order to predict quality parameters of loin. In addition, the effect of the sequence acquisition of MRI (Gradient echo, GE; Spin echo, SE and Turbo 3D, T3D) and the predictive technique of data mining (Isotonic regression, IR and Multiple linear...... regression, MLR) were analysed. Both fractal algorithm, FTA and OPFTA are appropriate to analyse MRI of loins. The sequence acquisition, the fractal algorithm and the data mining technique seems to influence on the prediction results. For most physico-chemical parameters, prediction equations with moderate...

  9. Predictive Maintenance--An Effective Money Saving Tool Being Applied in Industry Today.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Tom

    2000-01-01

    Looks at preventive/predictive maintenance as it is used in industry. Discusses core preventive maintenance tools that must be understood to prepare students. Includes a list of websites related to the topic. (JOW)

  10. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Casual Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  11. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Casual Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia

    2017-03-31

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  12. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2007-01-01

    the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance...... of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC) and three mouse H2-IA alleles. RESULTS: The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation...... between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR), we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance...

  13. A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olufsen, Mette; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities....... Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate...... a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting...

  14. Applying geographic profiling used in the field of criminology for predicting the nest locations of bumble bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki-Ohno, Yukari; Inoue, Maki N; Ohno, Kazunori

    2010-07-21

    We tested whether geographic profiling (GP) can predict multiple nest locations of bumble bees. GP was originally developed in the field of criminology for predicting the area where an offender most likely resides on the basis of the actual crime sites and the predefined probability of crime interaction. The predefined probability of crime interaction in the GP model depends on the distance of a site from an offender's residence. We applied GP for predicting nest locations, assuming that foraging and nest sites were the crime sites and the offenders' residences, respectively. We identified the foraging and nest sites of the invasive species Bombus terrestris in 2004, 2005, and 2006. We fitted GP model coefficients to the field data of the foraging and nest sites, and used GP with the fitting coefficients. GP succeeded in predicting about 10-30% of actual nests. Sensitivity analysis showed that the predictability of the GP model mainly depended on the coefficient value of buffer zone, the distance at the mode of the foraging probability. GP will be able to predict the nest locations of bumble bees in other area by using the fitting coefficient values measured in this study. It will be possible to further improve the predictability of the GP model by considering food site preference and nest density. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Is Romantic Desire Predictable? Machine Learning Applied to Initial Romantic Attraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joel, Samantha; Eastwick, Paul W; Finkel, Eli J

    2017-10-01

    Matchmaking companies and theoretical perspectives on close relationships suggest that initial attraction is, to some extent, a product of two people's self-reported traits and preferences. We used machine learning to test how well such measures predict people's overall tendencies to romantically desire other people (actor variance) and to be desired by other people (partner variance), as well as people's desire for specific partners above and beyond actor and partner variance (relationship variance). In two speed-dating studies, romantically unattached individuals completed more than 100 self-report measures about traits and preferences that past researchers have identified as being relevant to mate selection. Each participant met each opposite-sex participant attending a speed-dating event for a 4-min speed date. Random forests models predicted 4% to 18% of actor variance and 7% to 27% of partner variance; crucially, however, they were unable to predict relationship variance using any combination of traits and preferences reported before the dates. These results suggest that compatibility elements of human mating are challenging to predict before two people meet.

  16. Applying a new mammographic imaging marker to predict breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghaei, Faranak; Danala, Gopichandh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Stoug, Rebecca G.; Pearce, Melanie; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2018-02-01

    Identifying and developing new mammographic imaging markers to assist prediction of breast cancer risk has been attracting extensive research interest recently. Although mammographic density is considered an important breast cancer risk, its discriminatory power is lower for predicting short-term breast cancer risk, which is a prerequisite to establish a more effective personalized breast cancer screening paradigm. In this study, we presented a new interactive computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to generate a new quantitative mammographic imaging marker based on the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry to predict risk of cancer detection in the next subsequent mammography screening. An image database involving 1,397 women was retrospectively assembled and tested. Each woman had two digital mammography screenings namely, the "current" and "prior" screenings with a time interval from 365 to 600 days. All "prior" images were originally interpreted negative. In "current" screenings, these cases were divided into 3 groups, which include 402 positive, 643 negative, and 352 biopsy-proved benign cases, respectively. There is no significant difference of BIRADS based mammographic density ratings between 3 case groups (p cancer detection in the "current" screening. Study demonstrated that this new imaging marker had potential to yield significantly higher discriminatory power to predict short-term breast cancer risk.

  17. Applying linear discriminant analysis to predict groundwater redox conditions conducive to denitrification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, S. R.; Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.

    2018-01-01

    Diffuse nitrate losses from agricultural land pollute groundwater resources worldwide, but can be attenuated under reducing subsurface conditions. In New Zealand, the ability to predict where groundwater denitrification occurs is important for understanding the linkage between land use and discharges of nitrate-bearing groundwater to streams. This study assesses the application of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for predicting groundwater redox status for Southland, a major dairy farming region in New Zealand. Data cases were developed by assigning a redox status to samples derived from a regional groundwater quality database. Pre-existing regional-scale geospatial databases were used as training variables for the discriminant functions. The predictive accuracy of the discriminant functions was slightly improved by optimising the thresholds between sample depth classes. The models predict 23% of the region as being reducing at shallow depths (water table, and low-permeability clastic sediments. The coastal plains are an area of widespread groundwater discharge, and the soil and hydrology characteristics require the land to be artificially drained to render the land suitable for farming. For the improvement of water quality in coastal areas, it is therefore important that land and water management efforts focus on understanding hydrological bypassing that may occur via artificial drainage systems.

  18. The relevance of social media as it applies in South Africa to crime prediction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Featherstone, Coral

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available of data gathering, prediction and spotting broader patterns. An assessment is done to determine if South African people are already using Twitter to report crime and to find out what information they are sharing, with the goal of estabishing whether...

  19. Toward a complete theory for predicting inclusive deuteron breakup away from stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potel, G.; Perdikakis, G.; Carlson, B. V.; Atkinson, M. C.; Dickhoff, W. H.; Escher, J. E.; Hussein, M. S.; Lei, J.; Li, W.; Macchiavelli, A. O.; Moro, A. M.; Nunes, F. M.; Pain, S. D.; Rotureau, J.

    2017-09-01

    We present an account of the current status of the theoretical treatment of inclusive ( d, p) reactions in the breakup-fusion formalism, pointing to some applications and making the connection with current experimental capabilities. Three independent implementations of the reaction formalism have been recently developed, making use of different numerical strategies. The codes also originally relied on two different but equivalent representations, namely the prior (Udagawa-Tamura, UT) and the post (Ichimura-Austern-Vincent, IAV) representations. The different implementations have been benchmarked for the first time, and then applied to the Ca isotopic chain. The neutron-Ca propagator is described in the Dispersive Optical Model (DOM) framework, and the interplay between elastic breakup (EB) and non-elastic breakup (NEB) is studied for three Ca isotopes at two different bombarding energies. The accuracy of the description of different reaction observables is assessed by comparing with experimental data of ( d, p) on 40,48Ca. We discuss the predictions of the model for the extreme case of an isotope (60Ca) currently unavailable experimentally, though possibly available in future facilities (nominally within production reach at FRIB). We explore the use of ( d, p) reactions as surrogates for (n,γ ) processes, by using the formalism to describe the compound nucleus formation in a (d,pγ ) reaction as a function of excitation energy, spin, and parity. The subsequent decay is then computed within a Hauser-Feshbach formalism. Comparisons between the (d,pγ ) and (n,γ ) induced gamma decay spectra are discussed to inform efforts to infer neutron captures from (d,pγ ) reactions. Finally, we identify areas of opportunity for future developments, and discuss a possible path toward a predictive reaction theory.

  20. Toward a complete theory for predicting inclusive deuteron breakup away from stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potel, G.; Li, W.; Rotureau, J. [Michigan State University, Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, East Lansing, MI (United States); Perdikakis, G. [Michigan State University, Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, East Lansing, MI (United States); Central Michigan University, Department of Physics, Mt. Pleasant, MI (United States); Center for the Evolution of the Elements, Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, East Lansing, MI (United States); Carlson, B.V. [DCTA, Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Atkinson, M.C.; Dickhoff, W.H. [Washington University, Department of Physics, St. Louis, MO (United States); Escher, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States); Hussein, M.S. [DCTA, Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Universidade de Sao Paulo, Departamento de Fisica Matematica, Instituto de Fisica, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Estudos Avancados, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Lei, J.; Moro, A.M. [Universidad de Sevilla, Departamento de FAMN, Sevilla (Spain); Macchiavelli, A.O. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Nuclear Science Division, Berkeley, CA (United States); Nunes, F.M. [Michigan State University, Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, East Lansing, MI (United States); Michigan State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, East Lansing, MI (United States); Pain, S.D. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Physics Division, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-09-15

    We present an account of the current status of the theoretical treatment of inclusive (d, p) reactions in the breakup-fusion formalism, pointing to some applications and making the connection with current experimental capabilities. Three independent implementations of the reaction formalism have been recently developed, making use of different numerical strategies. The codes also originally relied on two different but equivalent representations, namely the prior (Udagawa-Tamura, UT) and the post (Ichimura-Austern-Vincent, IAV) representations. The different implementations have been benchmarked for the first time, and then applied to the Ca isotopic chain. The neutron-Ca propagator is described in the Dispersive Optical Model (DOM) framework, and the interplay between elastic breakup (EB) and non-elastic breakup (NEB) is studied for three Ca isotopes at two different bombarding energies. The accuracy of the description of different reaction observables is assessed by comparing with experimental data of (d, p) on {sup 40,48}Ca. We discuss the predictions of the model for the extreme case of an isotope ({sup 60}Ca) currently unavailable experimentally, though possibly available in future facilities (nominally within production reach at FRIB). We explore the use of (d, p) reactions as surrogates for (n,γ) processes, by using the formalism to describe the compound nucleus formation in a (d,pγ) reaction as a function of excitation energy, spin, and parity. The subsequent decay is then computed within a Hauser-Feshbach formalism. Comparisons between the (d,pγ) and (n,γ) induced gamma decay spectra are discussed to inform efforts to infer neutron captures from (d,pγ) reactions. Finally, we identify areas of opportunity for future developments, and discuss a possible path toward a predictive reaction theory. (orig.)

  1. Applying mathematical models to predict resident physician performance and alertness on traditional and novel work schedules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klerman, Elizabeth B; Beckett, Scott A; Landrigan, Christopher P

    2016-09-13

    In 2011 the U.S. Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education began limiting first year resident physicians (interns) to shifts of ≤16 consecutive hours. Controversy persists regarding the effectiveness of this policy for reducing errors and accidents while promoting education and patient care. Using a mathematical model of the effects of circadian rhythms and length of time awake on objective performance and subjective alertness, we quantitatively compared predictions for traditional intern schedules to those that limit work to ≤ 16 consecutive hours. We simulated two traditional schedules and three novel schedules using the mathematical model. The traditional schedules had extended duration work shifts (≥24 h) with overnight work shifts every second shift (including every third night, Q3) or every third shift (including every fourth night, Q4) night; the novel schedules had two different cross-cover (XC) night team schedules (XC-V1 and XC-V2) and a Rapid Cycle Rotation (RCR) schedule. Predicted objective performance and subjective alertness for each work shift were computed for each individual's schedule within a team and then combined for the team as a whole. Our primary outcome was the amount of time within a work shift during which a team's model-predicted objective performance and subjective alertness were lower than that expected after 16 or 24 h of continuous wake in an otherwise rested individual. The model predicted fewer hours with poor performance and alertness, especially during night-time work hours, for all three novel schedules than for either the traditional Q3 or Q4 schedules. Three proposed schedules that eliminate extended shifts may improve performance and alertness compared with traditional Q3 or Q4 schedules. Predicted times of worse performance and alertness were at night, which is also a time when supervision of trainees is lower. Mathematical modeling provides a quantitative comparison approach with potential to aid

  2. Prediction of soil stability and erosion in semiarid regions using numerical hydrological model (MCAT) and airborne hyperspectral imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, Anna; Wittenberg, Lea

    2015-04-01

    promising models is the MCAT, which is a MATLAB library of visual and numerical analysis tools for the evaluation of hydrological and environmental models. The model applied in this paper presents an innovative infrastructural system for predicting soil stability and erosion impacts. This integrated model is applicable to mixed areas with spatially varying soil properties, landscape, and land-cover characteristics. Data from a semiarid site in southern Israel was used to evaluate the model and analyze fundamental erosion mechanisms. The findings estimate the sensitivity of the suggested model to the physical parameters and encourage the use of hyperspectral remote sensing imagery (HSI). The proposed model is integrated according to the following stages: 1. The soil texture, aggregation, soil moisture estimated via airborne HSI data, including soil surface clay and calcium carbonate erosions; 2. The mechanical stability of soil assessed via pedo-transfer function corresponding to load dependent changes in soil physical properties due to pre-compression stress (set of equations study shear strength parameters take into account soil texture, aggregation, soil moisture and ecological soil variables); 3. The precipitation-related runoff model program (RMP) satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation; 4. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT), a library of visual and numerical analysis tools for the evaluation of hydrological and environmental models, is proposed as a tool for integrate all the approaches to an applicable model. The presented model overcomes the limitations of existing modeling methods by integrating physical data produced via HSI and yet stays generic in terms of space and time independency.

  3. Whole-Genome Regression and Prediction Methods Applied to Plant and Animal Breeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    de los Campos, Gustavo; Hickey, John M.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Daetwyler, Hans D.; Calus, Mario P. L.

    2013-01-01

    Genomic-enabled prediction is becoming increasingly important in animal and plant breeding and is also receiving attention in human genetics. Deriving accurate predictions of complex traits requires implementing whole-genome regression (WGR) models where phenotypes are regressed on thousands of markers concurrently. Methods exist that allow implementing these large-p with small-n regressions, and genome-enabled selection (GS) is being implemented in several plant and animal breeding programs. The list of available methods is long, and the relationships between them have not been fully addressed. In this article we provide an overview of available methods for implementing parametric WGR models, discuss selected topics that emerge in applications, and present a general discussion of lessons learned from simulation and empirical data analysis in the last decade. PMID:22745228

  4. Evaluation of Filtering Methods Applied to the Unstructured Datasets in the Predictive Learning Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilin Dmitry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive learning services perform aggregation and homogenization of open data from public sources, in particular from the online recruitment agencies. However, the sample of vacancies may contain various percentage of noise due to the frequent occurrence of homonyms. This article will consider two approaches of noise reduction: the first one is based on the cosine similarity and the second one is based on the contextual words.

  5. Applying a health action model to predict and improve healthy behaviors in coal miners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahedian-Shahroodi, Mohammad; Tehrani, Hadi; Mohammadi, Faeze; Gholian-Aval, Mahdi; Peyman, Nooshin

    2018-05-01

    One of the most important ways to prevent work-related diseases in occupations such as mining is to promote healthy behaviors among miners. This study aimed to predict and promote healthy behaviors among coal miners by using a health action model (HAM). The study was conducted on 200 coal miners in Iran in two steps. In the first step, a descriptive study was implemented to determine predictive constructs and effectiveness of HAM on behavioral intention. The second step involved a quasi-experimental study to determine the effect of an HAM-based education intervention. This intervention was implemented by the researcher and the head of the safety unit based on the predictive construct specified in the first step over 12 sessions of 60 min. The data was collected using an HAM questionnaire and a checklist of healthy behavior. The results of the first step of the study showed that attitude, belief, and normative constructs were meaningful predictors of behavioral intention. Also, the results of the second step revealed that the mean score of attitude and behavioral intention increased significantly after conducting the intervention in the experimental group, while the mean score of these constructs decreased significantly in the control group. The findings of this study showed that HAM-based educational intervention could improve the healthy behaviors of mine workers. Therefore, it is recommended to extend the application of this model to other working groups to improve healthy behaviors.

  6. Effects of DeOrbitSail as applied to Lifetime predictions of Low Earth Orbit Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afful, Andoh; Opperman, Ben; Steyn, Herman

    2016-07-01

    Orbit lifetime prediction is an important component of satellite mission design and post-launch space operations. Throughout its lifetime in space, a spacecraft is exposed to risk of collision with orbital debris or operational satellites. This risk is especially high within the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) region where the highest density of space debris is accumulated. This paper investigates orbital decay of some LEO micro-satellites and accelerating orbit decay by using a deorbitsail. The Semi-Analytical Liu Theory (SALT) and the Satellite Toolkit was employed to determine the mean elements and expressions for the time rates of change. Test cases of observed decayed satellites (Iridium-85 and Starshine-1) are used to evaluate the predicted theory. Results for the test cases indicated that the theory fitted observational data well within acceptable limits. Orbit decay progress of the SUNSAT micro-satellite was analysed using relevant orbital parameters derived from historic Two Line Element (TLE) sets and comparing with decay and lifetime prediction models. This paper also explored the deorbit date and time for a 1U CubeSat (ZACUBE-01). The use of solar sails as devices to speed up the deorbiting of LEO satellites is considered. In a drag sail mode, the deorbitsail technique significantly increases the effective cross-sectional area of a satellite, subsequently increasing atmospheric drag and accelerating orbit decay. The concept proposed in this study introduced a very useful technique of orbit decay as well as deorbiting of spacecraft.

  7. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2017-06-14

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

  8. Predictive performance for population models using stochastic differential equations applied on data from an oral glucose tolerance test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jonas Bech; Overgaard, R.V.; Madsen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Several articles have investigated stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in PK/PD models, but few have quantitatively investigated the benefits to predictive performance of models based on real data. Estimation of first phase insulin secretion which reflects beta-cell function using models of ...... obtained from the glucose tolerance tests. Since, the estimation time of extended models was not heavily increased compared to basic models, the applied method is concluded to have high relevance not only in theory but also in practice....

  9. Predictability and stability of refraction with increasing optical zone diameter in hyperopic LASIK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa A El-Helw

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Mostafa A El-Helw, Ahmed M EmarahCairo University, Cairo, EgyptObjective: We undertook a prospective nonrandomized study to assess refractive outcome and patient satisfaction with hyperopic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK using variable optical zone diameters in correction of hyperopia of more than 4.00 diopters.Methods: Fourteen adults (comprising 28 hyperopic eyes underwent hyperopic LASIK correction for hyperopia of more than 4.00 diopters. The sample was divided into two groups. Group 1 included the right eyes of the 14 patients who underwent hyperopic LASIK using a 6.5 mm optical zone diameter. Group 2 comprised the left eyes of the same patients with the only difference being that the optical zone diameter was 6.0 mm.Results: The mean age of the patients was 36.42 ± 5.10 years. Group 1 eyes had a median (range preoperative uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA of 0.79 (0.52 and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA of 0.15 (0.08. Group 2 had a median preoperative UCVA of 0.79 (0.60 and BCVA of 0.15 (0.08. The median postoperative UCVA in Group 1 was 0.17 (0.21 and BCVA was 0.15 (0.13. In Group 2, the median postoperative UCVA was 0.30 (0.32 and BCVA was 0.15 (0.26. Group 1 had a median preoperative refraction of +5.37 (1.75 diopters and the median postoperative refraction at one week was −0.23 (1.25 diopters, at three months was +0.75 (0.75 diopters, and at six months was +0.75 (1.00 diopters. Group 2 had a median preoperative refraction of +5.00 (1.75 diopters, and the median postoperative refraction at one week was +0.13 (1.5 diopters, at three months was +1.00 (0.75 diopters and at six months +1.25 (1.25 diopters. The difference was statistically significant between groups 1 and 2. The difference within each group was also significant. Group 1 eyes were stabilizing after the three-month period in contrast with Group 2 in which the refractive changes continued throughout the follow-up period.Conclusion: Larger optical zone diameter in

  10. Association of grey matter changes with stability and flexibility of prediction in akinetic-rigid Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trempler, Ima; Binder, Ellen; El-Sourani, Nadiya; Schiffler, Patrick; Tenberge, Jan-Gerd; Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Fink, Gereon R; Schubotz, Ricarda I

    2018-06-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD), which is caused by degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain, results in a heterogeneous clinical picture including cognitive decline. Since the phasic signal of dopamine neurons is proposed to guide learning by signifying mismatches between subjects' expectations and external events, we here investigated whether akinetic-rigid PD patients without mild cognitive impairment exhibit difficulties in dealing with either relevant (requiring flexibility) or irrelevant (requiring stability) prediction errors. Following our previous study on flexibility and stability in prediction (Trempler et al. J Cogn Neurosci 29(2):298-309, 2017), we then assessed whether deficits would correspond with specific structural alterations in dopaminergic regions as well as in inferior frontal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, and the hippocampus. Twenty-one healthy controls and twenty-one akinetic-rigid PD patients on and off medication performed a task which required to serially predict upcoming items. Switches between predictable sequences had to be indicated via button press, whereas sequence omissions had to be ignored. Independent of the disease, midbrain volume was related to a general response bias to unexpected events, whereas right putamen volume correlated with the ability to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant prediction errors. However, patients compared with healthy participants showed deficits in stabilisation against irrelevant prediction errors, associated with thickness of right inferior frontal gyrus and left medial prefrontal cortex. Flexible updating due to relevant prediction errors was also affected in patients compared with controls and associated with right hippocampus volume. Dopaminergic medication influenced behavioural performance across, but not within the patients. Our exploratory study warrants further research on deficient prediction error processing and its structural correlates as a core of cognitive symptoms

  11. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    : The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

  12. Computer aided modeling of soil mix designs to predict characteristics and properties of stabilized road bases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    "Considerable data exists for soils that were tested and documented, both for native properties and : properties with pozzolan stabilization. While the data exists there was no database for the Nebraska : Department of Roads to retrieve this data for...

  13. Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Junjie; Li, Guoqiang; Qian, Jinping; Liu, Zixi

    2012-11-01

    The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta βN limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power Pt increases as the toroidal magnetic field BT or the normalized beta βN is increased.

  14. Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Junjie; Li Guoqiang; Qian Jinping; Liu Zixi

    2012-01-01

    The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta β N limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power P t increases as the toroidal magnetic field B T or the normalized beta β N is increased. (magnetically confined plasma)

  15. Applying an extended theory of planned behaviour to predict breakfast consumption in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, S; Davies, E L; Ryan, L; Clegg, M E

    2017-05-01

    Breakfast skipping increases during adolescence and is associated with lower levels of physical activity and weight gain. Theory-based interventions promoting breakfast consumption in adolescents report mixed findings, potentially because of limited research identifying which determinants to target. This study aimed to: (i) utilise the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to identify the relative contribution of attitudes (affective, cognitive and behavioural) to predict intention to eat breakfast and breakfast consumption in adolescents and (ii) determine whether demographic factors moderate the relationship between TPB variables, intention and behaviour. Questionnaires were completed by 434 students (mean 14±0.9 years) measuring breakfast consumption (0-2, 3-6 or 7 days), physical activity levels and TPB measures. Data were analysed by breakfast frequency and demographics using hierarchical and multinomial regression analyses. Breakfast was consumed everyday by 57% of students, with boys more likely to eat a regular breakfast, report higher activity levels and report more positive attitudes towards breakfast than girls (Pbehaviours (Pbehaviour relationship for girls. Findings confirm that the TPB is a successful model for predicting breakfast intentions and behaviours in adolescents. The potential for a direct effect of attitudes on behaviours should be considered in the implementation and design of breakfast interventions.

  16. Applying a multi-replication framework to support dynamic situation assessment and predictive capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Craig; McGraw, Robert M.; Steinman, Jeffrey S.

    2005-05-01

    Technological advances and emerging threats reduce the time between target detection and action to an order of a few minutes. To effectively assist with the decision-making process, C4I decision support tools must quickly and dynamically predict and assess alternative Courses Of Action (COAs) to assist Commanders in anticipating potential outcomes. These capabilities can be provided through the faster-than-real-time predictive simulation of plans that are continuously re-calibrating with the real-time picture. This capability allows decision-makers to assess the effects of re-tasking opportunities, providing the decision-maker with tremendous freedom to make time-critical, mid-course decisions. This paper presents an overview and demonstrates the use of a software infrastructure that supports DSAP capabilities. These DSAP capabilities are demonstrated through the use of a Multi-Replication Framework that supports (1) predictivie simulations using JSAF (Joint Semi-Automated Forces); (2) real-time simulation, also using JSAF, as a state estimation mechanism; and, (3) real-time C4I data updates through TBMCS (Theater Battle Management Core Systems). This infrastructure allows multiple replications of a simulation to be executed simultaneously over a grid faster-than-real-time, calibrated with live data feeds. A cost evaluator mechanism analyzes potential outcomes and prunes simulations that diverge from the real-time picture. In particular, this paper primarily serves to walk a user through the process for using the Multi-Replication Framework providing an enhanced decision aid.

  17. Applying FDTD to the Coverage Prediction of WiMAX Femtocells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valcarce Alvaro

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Femtocells, or home base stations, are a potential future solution for operators to increase indoor coverage and reduce network cost. In a real WiMAX femtocell deployment in residential areas covered by WiMAX macrocells, interference is very likely to occur both in the streets and certain indoor regions. Propagation models that take into account both the outdoor and indoor channel characteristics are thus necessary for the purpose of WiMAX network planning in the presence of femtocells. In this paper, the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD method is adapted for the computation of radiowave propagation predictions at WiMAX frequencies. This model is particularly suitable for the study of hybrid indoor/outdoor scenarios and thus well adapted for the case of WiMAX femtocells in residential environments. Two optimization methods are proposed for the reduction of the FDTD simulation time: the reduction of the simulation frequency for problem simplification and a parallel graphics processing units (GPUs implementation. The calibration of the model is then thoroughly described. First, the calibration of the absorbing boundary condition, necessary for proper coverage predictions, is presented. Then a calibration of the material parameters that minimizes the error function between simulation and real measurements is proposed. Finally, some mobile WiMAX system-level simulations that make use of the presented propagation model are presented to illustrate the applicability of the model for the study of femto- to macrointerference.

  18. Evaluation of icing drag coefficient correlations applied to iced propeller performance prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Thomas L.; Shaw, R. J.; Korkan, K. D.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of three empirical icing drag coefficient correlations is accomplished through application to a set of propeller icing data. The various correlations represent the best means currently available for relating drag rise to various flight and atmospheric conditions for both fixed-wing and rotating airfoils, and the work presented here ilustrates and evaluates one such application of the latter case. The origins of each of the correlations are discussed, and their apparent capabilities and limitations are summarized. These correlations have been made to be an integral part of a computer code, ICEPERF, which has been designed to calculate iced propeller performance. Comparison with experimental propeller icing data shows generally good agreement, with the quality of the predicted results seen to be directly related to the radial icing extent of each case. The code's capability to properly predict thrust coefficient, power coefficient, and propeller efficiency is shown to be strongly dependent on the choice of correlation selected, as well as upon proper specificatioon of radial icing extent.

  19. Solid Waste Biodegradation Enhancements and the Evaluation of Analytical Methods Used to Predict Waste Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, Ryan J.

    2002-01-01

    Conventional landfills are built to dispose of the increasing amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated each year. A relatively new type of landfill, called a bioreactor landfill, is designed to optimize the biodegradation of the contained waste to stabilized products. Landfills with stabilized waste pose little threat to the environment from ozone depleting gases and groundwater contamination. Limited research has been done to determine the importance of biodegradation enhancement tech...

  20. Applying a machine learning model using a locally preserving projection based feature regeneration algorithm to predict breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qian, Wei; Zheng, Bin

    2018-03-01

    Both conventional and deep machine learning has been used to develop decision-support tools applied in medical imaging informatics. In order to take advantages of both conventional and deep learning approach, this study aims to investigate feasibility of applying a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature regeneration algorithm to build a new machine learning classifier model to predict short-term breast cancer risk. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was used to segment and quantify breast fibro-glandular tissue volume. Next, initially computed 44 image features related to the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry were extracted. Then, an LLP-based feature combination method was applied to regenerate a new operational feature vector using a maximal variance approach. Last, a k-nearest neighborhood (KNN) algorithm based machine learning classifier using the LPP-generated new feature vectors was developed to predict breast cancer risk. A testing dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was used. Among them, 250 were positive and 250 remained negative in the next subsequent mammography screening. Applying to this dataset, LLP-generated feature vector reduced the number of features from 44 to 4. Using a leave-onecase-out validation method, area under ROC curve produced by the KNN classifier significantly increased from 0.62 to 0.68 (p breast cancer detected in the next subsequent mammography screening.

  1. A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    Full Text Available Abstract This study has developed a scenery analysis model which has integrated decision-making tools on investments: prospective scenarios (Grumbach Method and systems dynamics (hard modeling, with the innovated multivariate analysis of experts. It was designed through analysis and simulation scenarios and showed which are the most striking events in the study object as well as highlighted the actions could redirect the future of the analyzed system. Moreover, predictions are likely to be developed through the generated scenarios. The model has been validated empirically with road freight transport data from state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that the model contributes to the analysis of investment because it identifies probabilities of events that impact on decision making, and identifies priorities for action, reducing uncertainties in the future. Moreover, it allows an interdisciplinary discussion that correlates different areas of knowledge, fundamental when you wish more consistency in creating scenarios.

  2. Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

  3. Applying an extended theory of planned behavior to predicting violations at automated railroad crossings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palat, Blazej; Paran, Françoise; Delhomme, Patricia

    2017-01-01

    Based on an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, Ajzen, 1985, 1991), we conducted surveys in order to explain and predict violations at a railroad crossing, among pedestrians (n=153) and car drivers (n=151). Measures were made with respect to three chronologically related railroad crossing situations that varied in risk level. The situations were described in scenarios and depicted on photographs. The participants were recruited in the suburbs of Paris, at two automated railroad crossings with four half-barriers. We found that the pedestrians had stronger crossing intentions than did car drivers, especially at the more congested crossing of the two under study. For both categories of road users, intentions and the amount of intention variance explained by the extended TPB factors decreased significantly with risk level. In the most dangerous situations, risk-taking was the most unlikely and the least predictable Self-reported past frequency of crossing against safety warning devices was the main predictor of the intention to commit this violation again, especially among males, followed by the attitude and the injunctive norm in favor the violation. Moreover, car drivers were influenced in their crossing intentions by the descriptive norm. The presence of another vehicle on the tracks when the safety warning devices were activated was perceived not as facilitating, but as an additional risk factor. The discussion addresses the importance of taking into account these determinants of violations in conceiving countermeasures. Our findings could be especially useful for conceiving risk-communication campaigns. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Genetic Gain Increases by Applying the Usefulness Criterion with Improved Variance Prediction in Selection of Crosses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehermeier, Christina; Teyssèdre, Simon; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2017-12-01

    A crucial step in plant breeding is the selection and combination of parents to form new crosses. Genome-based prediction guides the selection of high-performing parental lines in many crop breeding programs which ensures a high mean performance of progeny. To warrant maximum selection progress, a new cross should also provide a large progeny variance. The usefulness concept as measure of the gain that can be obtained from a specific cross accounts for variation in progeny variance. Here, it is shown that genetic gain can be considerably increased when crosses are selected based on their genomic usefulness criterion compared to selection based on mean genomic estimated breeding values. An efficient and improved method to predict the genetic variance of a cross based on Markov chain Monte Carlo samples of marker effects from a whole-genome regression model is suggested. In simulations representing selection procedures in crop breeding programs, the performance of this novel approach is compared with existing methods, like selection based on mean genomic estimated breeding values and optimal haploid values. In all cases, higher genetic gain was obtained compared with previously suggested methods. When 1% of progenies per cross were selected, the genetic gain based on the estimated usefulness criterion increased by 0.14 genetic standard deviation compared to a selection based on mean genomic estimated breeding values. Analytical derivations of the progeny genotypic variance-covariance matrix based on parental genotypes and genetic map information make simulations of progeny dispensable, and allow fast implementation in large-scale breeding programs. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  5. Applying the theory of planned behavior to predict dairy product consumption by older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyungwon; Reicks, Marla; Sjoberg, Sara

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explain intention to consume dairy products and consumption of dairy products by older adults using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The factors examined were attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. A cross-sectional questionnaire was administered. Community centers with congregate dining programs, group classes, and recreational events for older adults. One hundred and sixty-two older adults (mean age 75 years) completed the questionnaire. Subjects were mostly women (76%) and white (65%), with about half having less than a high school education or completing high school. Variables based on the TPB were assessed through questionnaire items that were constructed to form scales measuring attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to consume dairy products. Dairy product consumption was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. Regression analyses were used to determine the association between the scales for the 3 variables proposed in the TPB and intention to consume and consumption of dairy products; the alpha level was set at.05 to determine the statistical significance of results. Attitudes toward eating dairy products and perceived behavioral control contributed to the model for predicting intention, whereas subjective norms did not. Attitudes toward eating dairy products were slightly more important than perceived behavioral control in predicting intention. In turn, intention was strongly related to dairy product consumption, and perceived behavioral control was independently associated with dairy product consumption. These results suggest the utility of the TPB in explaining dairy product consumption for older adults. Nutrition education should focus on improving attitudes and removing barriers to consumption of dairy products for older adults.

  6. Improving Air Quality (and Weather) Predictions using Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques Applied to Coupled Models during KORUS-AQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, G. R.; Saide, P. E.; Gao, M.; Streets, D. G.; Kim, J.; Woo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Ambient aerosols are important air pollutants with direct impacts on human health and on the Earth's weather and climate systems through their interactions with radiation and clouds. Their role is dependent on their distributions of size, number, phase and composition, which vary significantly in space and time. There remain large uncertainties in simulated aerosol distributions due to uncertainties in emission estimates and in chemical and physical processes associated with their formation and removal. These uncertainties lead to large uncertainties in weather and air quality predictions and in estimates of health and climate change impacts. Despite these uncertainties and challenges, regional-scale coupled chemistry-meteorological models such as WRF-Chem have significant capabilities in predicting aerosol distributions and explaining aerosol-weather interactions. We explore the hypothesis that new advances in on-line, coupled atmospheric chemistry/meteorological models, and new emission inversion and data assimilation techniques applicable to such coupled models, can be applied in innovative ways using current and evolving observation systems to improve predictions of aerosol distributions at regional scales. We investigate the impacts of assimilating AOD from geostationary satellite (GOCI) and surface PM2.5 measurements on predictions of AOD and PM in Korea during KORUS-AQ through a series of experiments. The results suggest assimilating datasets from multiple platforms can improve the predictions of aerosol temporal and spatial distributions.

  7. APPLYING SPARSE CODING TO SURFACE MULTIVARIATE TENSOR-BASED MORPHOMETRY TO PREDICT FUTURE COGNITIVE DECLINE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Stonnington, Cynthia; Li, Qingyang; Shi, Jie; Bauer, Robert J; Gutman, Boris A; Chen, Kewei; Reiman, Eric M; Thompson, Paul M; Ye, Jieping; Wang, Yalin

    2016-04-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive brain disease. Accurate diagnosis of AD and its prodromal stage, mild cognitive impairment, is crucial for clinical trial design. There is also growing interests in identifying brain imaging biomarkers that help evaluate AD risk presymptomatically. Here, we applied a recently developed multivariate tensor-based morphometry (mTBM) method to extract features from hippocampal surfaces, derived from anatomical brain MRI. For such surface-based features, the feature dimension is usually much larger than the number of subjects. We used dictionary learning and sparse coding to effectively reduce the feature dimensions. With the new features, an Adaboost classifier was employed for binary group classification. In tests on publicly available data from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the new framework outperformed several standard imaging measures in classifying different stages of AD. The new approach combines the efficiency of sparse coding with the sensitivity of surface mTBM, and boosts classification performance.

  8. Comprehensive applied mathematical modeling in the natural and engineering sciences theoretical predictions compared with data

    CERN Document Server

    Wollkind, David J

    2017-01-01

    This text demonstrates the process of comprehensive applied mathematical modeling through the introduction of various case studies.  The case studies are arranged in increasing order of complexity based on the mathematical methods required to analyze the models. The development of these methods is also included, providing a self-contained presentation. To reinforce and supplement the material introduced, original problem sets are offered involving case studies closely related to the ones presented.  With this style, the text’s perspective, scope, and completeness of the subject matter are considered unique. Having grown out of four self-contained courses taught by the authors, this text will be of use in a two-semester sequence for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students, requiring rudimentary knowledge of advanced calculus and differential equations, along with a basic understanding of some simple physical and biological scientific principles. .

  9. Flexible ITO-free organic solar cells applying aqueous solution-processed V2O5 hole transport layer: An outdoor stability study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Anderson S. Lima

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Solution processable semiconductor oxides have opened a new paradigm for the enhancement of the lifetime of thin film solar cells. Their fabrication by low-cost and environmentally friendly solution-processable methods makes them ideal barrier (hole and electron transport layers. In this work, we fabricate flexible ITO-free organic solar cells (OPV by printing methods applying an aqueous solution-processed V2O5 as the hole transport layer (HTL and compared them to devices applying PEDOT:PSS. The transparent conducting electrode was PET/Ag/PEDOT/ZnO, and the OPV configuration was PET/Ag/PEDOT/ZnO/P3HT:PC60BM/HTL/Ag. Outdoor stability analyses carried out for more than 900 h revealed higher stability for devices fabricated with the aqueous solution-processed V2O5.

  10. Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior in Predicting Proenvironmental Behaviour: The Case of Energy Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octav-Ionuţ Macovei

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to propose and validate a model based on the Theory of Planned Behavior in order to explain consumers’ pro-environmental behaviour regarding energy conservation. The model was constructed using the five variables from Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB (behaviour, intention, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms and attitude to which a variable adapted from Schwartz’s Norm Activation Theory (NAT was added (“awareness of the consequences and the need” in order to create a unique model adapted for the special case of energy conservation behaviour. Further, a survey was conducted and the data collected were analysed using structural equation modelling. The first step of data analysis confirmed that all the constructs have good reliability, internal consistency and validity. The results of the structural equation analysis validated the proposed model, with all the model fit and quality indices having very good values. In the analysis of consumers’ proenvironmental behaviour regarding energy conservation and their intention to behave in a proenvironmental manner, this model proved to have a strong predictive power. Five of seven hypotheses were validated, the newly introduced variable proving to be a success. The proposed model is unique and will offer companies and organizations a valuable green marketing tool which can be used in the fight for environment protection and energy conservation.

  11. The Effects of Applied Stress and Sensitization on the Passive Film Stability of Al-Mg Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    evaluates effects of stress on the corrosion behavior for the aluminum magnesium alloy AA5083 in a comprehensive and systematic manner. This study used... comprehensive and systematic manner. This study used cyclic polarization and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy to study passive film stability...cyclic polarization DoD Department of Defense DON Department of the Navy EBD breakdown potential ECORR corrosion potential ECRIT critical potential

  12. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  13. Applying a computer-aided scheme to detect a new radiographic image marker for prediction of chemotherapy outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yunzhi; Qiu, Yuchen; Thai, Theresa; Moore, Kathleen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the feasibility of automated segmentation of visceral and subcutaneous fat areas from computed tomography (CT) images of ovarian cancer patients and applying the computed adiposity-related image features to predict chemotherapy outcome. A computerized image processing scheme was developed to segment visceral and subcutaneous fat areas, and compute adiposity-related image features. Then, logistic regression models were applied to analyze association between the scheme-generated assessment scores and progression-free survival (PFS) of patients using a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method and a dataset involving 32 patients. The correlation coefficients between automated and radiologist’s manual segmentation of visceral and subcutaneous fat areas were 0.76 and 0.89, respectively. The scheme-generated prediction scores using adiposity-related radiographic image features significantly associated with patients’ PFS (p < 0.01). Using a computerized scheme enables to more efficiently and robustly segment visceral and subcutaneous fat areas. The computed adiposity-related image features also have potential to improve accuracy in predicting chemotherapy outcome

  14. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia

    2017-09-29

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  15. Benefits of Applying Predictive Intelligence to the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, B.; Mann, B.; Millard, C.

    Recent events have heightened the interest in providing improved Space Situational Awareness (SSA) to the warfighter using novel techniques that are affordable and effective. The current Space Surveillance Network (SSN) detects, tracks, catalogs and identifies artificial objects orbiting earth and provides information on Resident Space Objects (RSO) as well as new foreign launch (NFL) satellites. The reactive nature of the SSN provides little to no warning on changes to the expected states of these RSOs or NFLs. This paper will detail the use of the historical data collected on RSOs to characterize what their steady state is, proactively help identify when changes or anomalies have occurred using a pattern-of-like activity based intelligence approach, and apply dynamic, adaptive mission planning to the observables that lead up to a NFL. Multiple hypotheses will be carried along with the intent or the changes to the steady state to assist the SSN in tasking the various sensors in the network to collect the relevant data needed to help prune the number of hypotheses by assigning likelihood to each of those activities. Depending on the hypothesis and thresholds set, these likelihoods will then be used in turn to alert the SSN operator with changes to the steady state, prioritize additional data collections, and provide a watch list of likely next activities.

  16. Incorporation of the variation in conductivity with burnup in the stability of code predictive LAPUR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escriba, A.; Munoz-cobo, J. L.; Merino, R.; Melara, J.; Albendea, M.

    2013-01-01

    In the field of nuclear safety, the analysis of the stability of boiling water reactors is one of the biggest challenges for researchers. LAPUR code that allows to obtain the parameters of stability of the plant (Decay rate and frequency), being one of the programs used by IBERDROLA can be used for these calculations. With the collaboration of the research group TIN of the Polytechnic University of Valencia, a model of loss of conductivity of uranium has joined with the burned LAPUR. This update allows you to play the phenomenon in a more realistic way. This improvement has been validated and verified contrasting results with reference values.

  17. Stability in vitiligo: Is there a perfect way to predict it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanika Sahni

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Stability is a hard-to-define concept in the setting of vitiligo, but is nonetheless extremely crucial to the planning of treatment regimens and also in prognosticating for the patient. There are several ways to judge stability in vitiligo, which include clinical features and, recently, many biochemical, cytological and ultrastructural correlates of the same. These recent advances help in not only in prognosticating individual patients but also in elucidating some of the mechanisms for the pathogenesis of vitiligo, including melanocytorrhagy and oxidative damage to melanocytes.

  18. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Applied QSAR with Quantum Chemical Descriptors for Predicting Radical Scavenging Activities of Carotenoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jhin, Changho; Hwang, Keum Taek

    2015-01-01

    One of the physiological characteristics of carotenoids is their radical scavenging activity. In this study, the relationship between radical scavenging activities and quantum chemical descriptors of carotenoids was determined. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) applied quantitative structure-activity relationship models (QSAR) were also developed for predicting and comparing radical scavenging activities of carotenoids. Semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 quantum chemical calculations were done by MOPAC. Ionisation energies of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids and the product of chemical potentials of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids were significantly correlated with the radical scavenging activities, and consequently these descriptors were used as independent variables for the QSAR study. The ANFIS applied QSAR models were developed with two triangular-shaped input membership functions made for each of the independent variables and optimised by a backpropagation method. High prediction efficiencies were achieved by the ANFIS applied QSAR. The R-square values of the developed QSAR models with the variables calculated by PM6 and PM7 methods were 0.921 and 0.902, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated reliabilities of the selected quantum chemical descriptors and the significance of QSAR models.

  19. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Applied QSAR with Quantum Chemical Descriptors for Predicting Radical Scavenging Activities of Carotenoids.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changho Jhin

    Full Text Available One of the physiological characteristics of carotenoids is their radical scavenging activity. In this study, the relationship between radical scavenging activities and quantum chemical descriptors of carotenoids was determined. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS applied quantitative structure-activity relationship models (QSAR were also developed for predicting and comparing radical scavenging activities of carotenoids. Semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 quantum chemical calculations were done by MOPAC. Ionisation energies of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids and the product of chemical potentials of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids were significantly correlated with the radical scavenging activities, and consequently these descriptors were used as independent variables for the QSAR study. The ANFIS applied QSAR models were developed with two triangular-shaped input membership functions made for each of the independent variables and optimised by a backpropagation method. High prediction efficiencies were achieved by the ANFIS applied QSAR. The R-square values of the developed QSAR models with the variables calculated by PM6 and PM7 methods were 0.921 and 0.902, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated reliabilities of the selected quantum chemical descriptors and the significance of QSAR models.

  20. Generalising better: Applying deep learning to integrate deleteriousness prediction scores for whole-exome SNV studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korvigo, Ilia; Afanasyev, Andrey; Romashchenko, Nikolay; Skoblov, Mikhail

    2018-01-01

    even relatively simple modern neural networks can significantly improve both prediction accuracy and coverage. We provide open-access to our finest model via the web-site: http://score.generesearch.ru/services/badmut/.

  1. Evaluation of standardized and applied variables in predicting treatment outcomes of polytrauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksamija, Goran; Mulabdic, Adi; Rasic, Ismar; Muhovic, Samir; Gavric, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Polytrauma is defined as an injury where they are affected by at least two different organ systems or body, with at least one life-threatening injuries. Given the multilevel model care of polytrauma patients within KCUS are inevitable weaknesses in the management of this category of patients. To determine the dynamics of existing procedures in treatment of polytrauma patients on admission to KCUS, and based on statistical analysis of variables applied to determine and define the factors that influence the final outcome of treatment, and determine their mutual relationship, which may result in eliminating the flaws in the approach to the problem. The study was based on 263 polytrauma patients. Parametric and non-parametric statistical methods were used. Basic statistics were calculated, based on the calculated parameters for the final achievement of research objectives, multicoleration analysis, image analysis, discriminant analysis and multifactorial analysis were used. From the universe of variables for this study we selected sample of n = 25 variables, of which the first two modular, others belong to the common measurement space (n = 23) and in this paper defined as a system variable methods, procedures and assessments of polytrauma patients. After the multicoleration analysis, since the image analysis gave a reliable measurement results, we started the analysis of eigenvalues, that is defining the factors upon which they obtain information about the system solve the problem of the existing model and its correlation with treatment outcome. The study singled out the essential factors that determine the current organizational model of care, which may affect the treatment and better outcome of polytrauma patients. This analysis has shown the maximum correlative relationships between these practices and contributed to development guidelines that are defined by isolated factors.

  2. A new method for class prediction based on signed-rank algorithms applied to Affymetrix® microarray experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vassal Aurélien

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The huge amount of data generated by DNA chips is a powerful basis to classify various pathologies. However, constant evolution of microarray technology makes it difficult to mix data from different chip types for class prediction of limited sample populations. Affymetrix® technology provides both a quantitative fluorescence signal and a decision (detection call: absent or present based on signed-rank algorithms applied to several hybridization repeats of each gene, with a per-chip normalization. We developed a new prediction method for class belonging based on the detection call only from recent Affymetrix chip type. Biological data were obtained by hybridization on U133A, U133B and U133Plus 2.0 microarrays of purified normal B cells and cells from three independent groups of multiple myeloma (MM patients. Results After a call-based data reduction step to filter out non class-discriminative probe sets, the gene list obtained was reduced to a predictor with correction for multiple testing by iterative deletion of probe sets that sequentially improve inter-class comparisons and their significance. The error rate of the method was determined using leave-one-out and 5-fold cross-validation. It was successfully applied to (i determine a sex predictor with the normal donor group classifying gender with no error in all patient groups except for male MM samples with a Y chromosome deletion, (ii predict the immunoglobulin light and heavy chains expressed by the malignant myeloma clones of the validation group and (iii predict sex, light and heavy chain nature for every new patient. Finally, this method was shown powerful when compared to the popular classification method Prediction Analysis of Microarray (PAM. Conclusion This normalization-free method is routinely used for quality control and correction of collection errors in patient reports to clinicians. It can be easily extended to multiple class prediction suitable with

  3. Intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8: A new spatially stabilized application in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romashkova, L.L.; Kossobokov, V.G.; Peresan, A.; Panza, G.F.

    2001-12-01

    A series of experiments, based on the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm M8, has been performed for the retrospective simulation of forward predictions in the Italian territory, with the aim to design an experimental routine for real-time predictions. These experiments evidenced two main difficulties for the application of M8 in Italy. The first one is due to the fact that regional catalogues are usually limited in space. The second one concerns certain arbitrariness and instability, with respect to the positioning of the circles of investigation. Here we design a new scheme for the application of the algorithm M8, which is less subjective and less sensitive to the position of the circles of investigation. To perform this test, we consider a recent revision of the Italian catalogue, named UCI2001, composed by CCI1996, NEIC and ALPOR data for the period 1900-1985, and updated with the NEIC reduces the spatial heterogeneity of the data at the boundaries of Italy. The new variant of the M8 algorithm application reduces the number of spurious alarms and increases the reliability of predictions. As a result, three out of four earthquakes with magnitude M max larger than 6.0 are predicted in the retrospective simulation of the forward prediction, during the period 1972-2001, with a space-time volume of alarms comparable to that obtained with the non-stabilized variant of the M8 algorithm in Italy. (author)

  4. Predicting the stability constants of metal-ion complexes from first principles

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gutten, Ondrej; Rulíšek, Lubomír

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 18 (2013), s. 10347-10355 ISSN 0020-1669 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : stability constants * solvation energy * metal-ion complexation * theoretical calculations * DFT methods Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 4.794, year: 2013

  5. CAN THE STABILITY OF PROTEIN MUTANTS BE PREDICTED BY FREE-ENERGY CALCULATIONS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    YUNYU, S; MARK, AE; WANG, CX; HUANG, FH; BERENDSEN, HJC; VANGUNSTEREN, WF

    The use of free energy simulation techniques in the study of protein stability is critically evaluated. Results from two simulations of the thermostability mutation Asn218 to Ser218 in Subtilisin are presented. It is shown that components of the free energy change can be highly sensitive to the

  6. Prediction of slope stability based on numerical modeling of stress–strain state of rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozhogulov Nifadyev, KCh, VI; Usmanov, SF

    2018-03-01

    The paper presents the developed technique for the estimation of rock mass stability based on the finite element modeling of stress–strain state of rocks. The modeling results on the pit wall landslide as a flow of particles along a sloped surface are described.

  7. Stabilizing model predictive control : on the enlargement of the terminal set

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunner, F.D.; Lazar, M.; Allgöwer, F.

    2015-01-01

    It is well known that a large terminal set leads to a large region where the model predictive control problem is feasible without the need for a long prediction horizon. This paper proposes a new method for the enlargement of the terminal set. Different from existing approaches, the method uses the

  8. Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

    1998-01-01

    On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

  9. Rice Husk Ash to Stabilize Heavy Metals Contained in Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Fly Ash: First Results by Applying New Pre-treatment Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Benassi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A new technology was recently developed for municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI fly ash stabilization, based on the employment of all waste and byproduct materials. In particular, the proposed method is based on the use of amorphous silica contained in rice husk ash (RHA, an agricultural byproduct material (COSMOS-RICE project. The obtained final inert can be applied in several applications to produce “green composites”. In this work, for the first time, a process for pre-treatment of rice husk, before its use in the stabilization of heavy metals, based on the employment of Instant Pressure Drop technology (DIC was tested. The aim of this work is to verify the influence of the pre-treatment on the efficiency on heavy metals stabilization in the COSMOS-RICE technology. DIC technique is based on a thermomechanical effect induced by an abrupt transition from high steam pressure to a vacuum, to produce changes in the material. Two different DIC pre-treatments were selected and thermal annealing at different temperatures were performed on rice husk. The resulting RHAs were employed to obtain COSMOS-RICE samples, and the stabilization procedure was tested on the MSWI fly ash. In the frame of this work, some thermal treatments were also realized in O2-limiting conditions, to test the effect of charcoal obtained from RHA on the stabilization procedure. The results of this work show that the application of DIC technology into existing treatment cycles of some waste materials should be investigated in more details to offer the possibility to stabilize and reuse waste.

  10. Rice Husk Ash to Stabilize Heavy Metals Contained in Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Fly Ash: First Results by Applying New Pre-treatment Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassi, Laura; Franchi, Federica; Catina, Daniele; Cioffi, Flavio; Rodella, Nicola; Borgese, Laura; Pasquali, Michela; Depero, Laura E.; Bontempi, Elza

    2015-01-01

    A new technology was recently developed for municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) fly ash stabilization, based on the employment of all waste and byproduct materials. In particular, the proposed method is based on the use of amorphous silica contained in rice husk ash (RHA), an agricultural byproduct material (COSMOS-RICE project). The obtained final inert can be applied in several applications to produce “green composites”. In this work, for the first time, a process for pre-treatment of rice husk, before its use in the stabilization of heavy metals, based on the employment of Instant Pressure Drop technology (DIC) was tested. The aim of this work is to verify the influence of the pre-treatment on the efficiency on heavy metals stabilization in the COSMOS-RICE technology. DIC technique is based on a thermomechanical effect induced by an abrupt transition from high steam pressure to a vacuum, to produce changes in the material. Two different DIC pre-treatments were selected and thermal annealing at different temperatures were performed on rice husk. The resulting RHAs were employed to obtain COSMOS-RICE samples, and the stabilization procedure was tested on the MSWI fly ash. In the frame of this work, some thermal treatments were also realized in O2-limiting conditions, to test the effect of charcoal obtained from RHA on the stabilization procedure. The results of this work show that the application of DIC technology into existing treatment cycles of some waste materials should be investigated in more details to offer the possibility to stabilize and reuse waste. PMID:28793605

  11. Overgeneral memory predicts stability of short-term outcome of electroconvulsive therapy for depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raes, Filip; Sienaert, Pascal; Demyttenaere, Koen; Peuskens, Joseph; Williams, J Mark G; Hermans, Dirk

    2008-03-01

    To investigate the predictive value of overgeneral memory (OGM) for outcome of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) for depression. The Autobiographical Memory Test was used to measure OGM in 25 patients with depression before ECT. The Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) was administered weekly to 1 week posttreatment. Overgeneral memory did not predict HRSD scores from the last ECT treatment, but did predict HRSD change scores from the last treatment to 1-week follow-up: patients high in OGM experienced a relatively greater increase in HRSD scores after the last treatment. Results further extend the status of OGM as a predictor of an unfavorable course of depression to a previously unstudied ECT population.

  12. Whole-brain grey matter density predicts balance stability irrespective of age and protects older adults from falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisgontier, Matthieu P; Cheval, Boris; van Ruitenbeek, Peter; Levin, Oron; Renaud, Olivier; Chanal, Julien; Swinnen, Stephan P

    2016-03-01

    Functional and structural imaging studies have demonstrated the involvement of the brain in balance control. Nevertheless, how decisive grey matter density and white matter microstructural organisation are in predicting balance stability, and especially when linked to the effects of ageing, remains unclear. Standing balance was tested on a platform moving at different frequencies and amplitudes in 30 young and 30 older adults, with eyes open and with eyes closed. Centre of pressure variance was used as an indicator of balance instability. The mean density of grey matter and mean white matter microstructural organisation were measured using voxel-based morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging, respectively. Mixed-effects models were built to analyse the extent to which age, grey matter density, and white matter microstructural organisation predicted balance instability. Results showed that both grey matter density and age independently predicted balance instability. These predictions were reinforced when the level of difficulty of the conditions increased. Furthermore, grey matter predicted balance instability beyond age and at least as consistently as age across conditions. In other words, for balance stability, the level of whole-brain grey matter density is at least as decisive as being young or old. Finally, brain grey matter appeared to be protective against falls in older adults as age increased the probability of losing balance in older adults with low, but not moderate or high grey matter density. No such results were observed for white matter microstructural organisation, thereby reinforcing the specificity of our grey matter findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Applying a new computer-aided detection scheme generated imaging marker to predict short-term breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Patel, Bhavika; Heidari, Morteza; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2018-05-01

    This study aims to investigate the feasibility of identifying a new quantitative imaging marker based on false-positives generated by a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to help predict short-term breast cancer risk. An image dataset including four view mammograms acquired from 1044 women was retrospectively assembled. All mammograms were originally interpreted as negative by radiologists. In the next subsequent mammography screening, 402 women were diagnosed with breast cancer and 642 remained negative. An existing CAD scheme was applied ‘as is’ to process each image. From CAD-generated results, four detection features including the total number of (1) initial detection seeds and (2) the final detected false-positive regions, (3) average and (4) sum of detection scores, were computed from each image. Then, by combining the features computed from two bilateral images of left and right breasts from either craniocaudal or mediolateral oblique view, two logistic regression models were trained and tested using a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method to predict the likelihood of each testing case being positive in the next subsequent screening. The new prediction model yielded the maximum prediction accuracy with an area under a ROC curve of AUC  =  0.65  ±  0.017 and the maximum adjusted odds ratio of 4.49 with a 95% confidence interval of (2.95, 6.83). The results also showed an increasing trend in the adjusted odds ratio and risk prediction scores (p  breast cancer risk.

  14. Evaluation of microwave oven heating for prediction of drug-excipient compatibilities and accelerated stability studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou-Pedersen, Anne Marie V; Østergaard, Jesper; Cornett, Claus

    2015-01-01

    , if a microwave oven is applicable for accelerated drug stability testing. Chemical interactions were investigated in three selected model formulations of drug and excipients regarding the formation of ester and amide reaction products. The accelerated stability studies performed in the microwave oven using...... a design of experiments (DoE) approach in order to be able to rank excipients regarding reactivity: Study A: cetirizine with PEG 400, sorbitol, glycerol and propylene glycol. Study B: 6-aminocaproic acid with citrate, acetate, tartrate and gluconate. Study C: atenolol with citric, tartaric, malic, glutaric......, and sorbic acid. The model formulations were representative for oral solutions (co-solvents), parenteral solutions (buffer species) and solid dosage forms (organic acids applicable for solubility enhancement). The DoE studies showed overall that the same impurities were generated by microwave oven heating...

  15. Understanding chemical-potential-related transient pore-pressure response to improve real-time borehole (in)stability predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tare, U. A.; Mody, F. K.; Mese, A. I. [Haliburton Energy Services, TX (United States)

    2002-07-01

    In order to develop a real-time wellbore (in)stability modelling capability, experimental work was carried out to investigate the role of the chemical potential of drilling fluids on transient pore pressure and time-dependent rock property alterations of shale formations. Time-dependent alterations in the pore pressure, acoustic and rock properties of formations subjected to compressive tri-axial test were recorded during the experiments involving the Pore Pressure Transmission (PPT) test. Based on the transient pore pressure of shale exposed to the test fluid presented here, the 20 per cent calcium chloride showed a very low membrane efficiency of 4.45 per cent. The need for a thorough understanding of the drilling fluid/shale interaction prior to applying any chemical potential wellbore (in)stability model to real-time drilling operations was emphasized. 9 refs., 5 figs.

  16. Adaptive Fuzzy Output-Feedback Method Applied to Fin Control for Time-Delay Ship Roll Stabilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ship roll stabilization by fin control system is considered in this paper. Assuming that angular velocity in roll cannot be measured, an adaptive fuzzy output-feedback control is investigated. The fuzzy logic system is used to approximate the uncertain term of the controlled system, and a fuzzy state observer is designed to estimate the unmeasured states. By utilizing the fuzzy state observer and combining the adaptive backstepping technique with adaptive fuzzy control design, an observer-based adaptive fuzzy output-feedback control approach is developed. It is proved that the proposed control approach can guarantee that all the signals in the closed-loop system are semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded (SGUUB, and the control strategy is effective to decrease the roll motion. Simulation results are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  17. Improving stability of prediction models based on correlated omics data by using network approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaud Tissier

    Full Text Available Building prediction models based on complex omics datasets such as transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics remains a challenge in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Regularized regression techniques are typically used to deal with the high dimensionality of these datasets. However, due to the presence of correlation in the datasets, it is difficult to select the best model and application of these methods yields unstable results. We propose a novel strategy for model selection where the obtained models also perform well in terms of overall predictability. Several three step approaches are considered, where the steps are 1 network construction, 2 clustering to empirically derive modules or pathways, and 3 building a prediction model incorporating the information on the modules. For the first step, we use weighted correlation networks and Gaussian graphical modelling. Identification of groups of features is performed by hierarchical clustering. The grouping information is included in the prediction model by using group-based variable selection or group-specific penalization. We compare the performance of our new approaches with standard regularized regression via simulations. Based on these results we provide recommendations for selecting a strategy for building a prediction model given the specific goal of the analysis and the sizes of the datasets. Finally we illustrate the advantages of our approach by application of the methodology to two problems, namely prediction of body mass index in the DIetary, Lifestyle, and Genetic determinants of Obesity and Metabolic syndrome study (DILGOM and prediction of response of each breast cancer cell line to treatment with specific drugs using a breast cancer cell lines pharmacogenomics dataset.

  18. The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility applying artificial neural network and logistic regression models: A case study of Inje, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saro, Lee; Woo, Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young, Oh; Moung-Jin, Lee

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS). These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50%) and a test set (50%). A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10%) was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%). Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, `slope' yielded the highest weight value (1.330), and `aspect' yielded the lowest value (1.000). This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.

  19. The spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility applying artificial neural network and logistic regression models: A case study of Inje, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saro Lee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS. These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50% and a test set (50%. A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10% was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%. Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, ‘slope’ yielded the highest weight value (1.330, and ‘aspect’ yielded the lowest value (1.000. This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.

  20. Prediction of radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins applying adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with quantum chemical descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jhin, Changho; Hwang, Keum Taek

    2014-08-22

    Radical scavenging activity of anthocyanins is well known, but only a few studies have been conducted by quantum chemical approach. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is an effective technique for solving problems with uncertainty. The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for predicting radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins with good prediction efficiency. ANFIS-applied QSAR models were developed by using quantum chemical descriptors of anthocyanins calculated by semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 methods. Electron affinity (A) and electronegativity (χ) of flavylium cation, and ionization potential (I) of quinoidal base were significantly correlated with radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins. These descriptors were used as independent variables for QSAR models. ANFIS models with two triangular-shaped input fuzzy functions for each independent variable were constructed and optimized by 100 learning epochs. The constructed models using descriptors calculated by both PM6 and PM7 had good prediction efficiency with Q-square of 0.82 and 0.86, respectively.

  1. Prediction of Radical Scavenging Activities of Anthocyanins Applying Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS with Quantum Chemical Descriptors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changho Jhin

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Radical scavenging activity of anthocyanins is well known, but only a few studies have been conducted by quantum chemical approach. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS is an effective technique for solving problems with uncertainty. The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR models for predicting radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins with good prediction efficiency. ANFIS-applied QSAR models were developed by using quantum chemical descriptors of anthocyanins calculated by semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 methods. Electron affinity (A and electronegativity (χ of flavylium cation, and ionization potential (I of quinoidal base were significantly correlated with radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins. These descriptors were used as independent variables for QSAR models. ANFIS models with two triangular-shaped input fuzzy functions for each independent variable were constructed and optimized by 100 learning epochs. The constructed models using descriptors calculated by both PM6 and PM7 had good prediction efficiency with Q-square of 0.82 and 0.86, respectively.

  2. Transient stability enhancement of modern power grid using predictive Wide-Area Monitoring and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefian, Reza

    This dissertation presents a real-time Wide-Area Control (WAC) designed based on artificial intelligence for large scale modern power systems transient stability enhancement. The WAC using the measurements available from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) at generator buses, monitors the global oscillations in the system and optimally augments the local excitation system of the synchronous generators. The complexity of the power system stability problem along with uncertainties and nonlinearities makes the conventional modeling non-practical or inaccurate. In this work Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm on the benchmark of Neural Networks (NNs) is used to map the nonlinearities of the system in real-time. This method different from both the centralized and the decentralized control schemes, employs a number of semi-autonomous agents to collaborate with each other to perform optimal control theory well-suited for WAC applications. Also, to handle the delays in Wide-Area Monitoring (WAM) and adapt the RL toward the robust control design, Temporal Difference (TD) is proposed as a solver for RL problem or optimal cost function. However, the main drawback of such WAC design is that it is challenging to determine if an offline trained network is valid to assess the stability of the power system once the system is evolved to a different operating state or network topology. In order to address the generality issue of NNs, a value priority scheme is proposed in this work to design a hybrid linear and nonlinear controllers. The algorithm so-called supervised RL is based on mixture of experts, where it is initialized by linear controller and as the performance and identification of the RL controller improves in real-time switches to the other controller. This work also focuses on transient stability and develops Lyapunov energy functions for synchronous generators to monitor the stability stress of the system. Using such energies as a cost function guarantees the convergence

  3. 3D Microstructure Effects in Ni-YSZ Anodes: Prediction of Effective Transport Properties and Optimization of Redox Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecho, Omar M.; Stenzel, Ole; Iwanschitz, Boris; Gasser, Philippe; Neumann, Matthias; Schmidt, Volker; Prestat, Michel; Hocker, Thomas; Flatt, Robert J.; Holzer, Lorenz

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the influence of microstructure on the effective ionic and electrical conductivities of Ni-YSZ (yttria-stabilized zirconia) anodes. Fine, medium, and coarse microstructures are exposed to redox cycling at 950 °C. FIB (focused ion beam)-tomography and image analysis are used to quantify the effective (connected) volume fraction (Φeff), constriction factor (β), and tortuosity (τ). The effective conductivity (σeff) is described as the product of intrinsic conductivity (σ0) and the so-called microstructure-factor (M): σeff = σ0 × M. Two different methods are used to evaluate the M-factor: (1) by prediction using a recently established relationship, Mpred = εβ0.36/τ5.17, and (2) by numerical simulation that provides conductivity, from which the simulated M-factor can be deduced (Msim). Both methods give complementary and consistent information about the effective transport properties and the redox degradation mechanism. The initial microstructure has a strong influence on effective conductivities and their degradation. Finer anodes have higher initial conductivities but undergo more intensive Ni coarsening. Coarser anodes have a more stable Ni phase but exhibit lower YSZ stability due to lower sintering activity. Consequently, in order to improve redox stability, it is proposed to use mixtures of fine and coarse powders in different proportions for functional anode and current collector layers. PMID:28793523

  4. 3D Microstructure Effects in Ni-YSZ Anodes: Prediction of Effective Transport Properties and Optimization of Redox Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar M. Pecho

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the influence of microstructure on the effective ionic and electrical conductivities of Ni-YSZ (yttria-stabilized zirconia anodes. Fine, medium, and coarse microstructures are exposed to redox cycling at 950 °C. FIB (focused ion beam-tomography and image analysis are used to quantify the effective (connected volume fraction (Φeff, constriction factor (β, and tortuosity (τ. The effective conductivity (σeff is described as the product of intrinsic conductivity (σ0 and the so-called microstructure-factor (M: σeff = σ0*M. Two different methods are used to evaluate the M-factor: (1 by prediction using a recently established relationship, Mpred = εβ0.36/τ5.17, and (2 by numerical simulation that provides conductivity, from which the simulated M-factor can be deduced (Msim. Both methods give complementary and consistent information about the effective transport properties and the redox degradation mechanism. The initial microstructure has a strong influence on effective conductivities and their degradation. Finer anodes have higher initial conductivities but undergo more intensive Ni coarsening. Coarser anodes have a more stable Ni phase but exhibit lower YSZ stability due to lower sintering activity. Consequently, in order to improve redox stability, it is proposed to use mixtures of fine and coarse powders in different proportions for functional anode and current collector layers.

  5. Applying psychological theories to evidence-based clinical practice: identifying factors predictive of placing preventive fissure sealants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonetti, Debbie; Johnston, Marie; Clarkson, Jan E; Grimshaw, Jeremy; Pitts, Nigel B; Eccles, Martin; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Maclennan, Graeme; Glidewell, Liz; Walker, Anne

    2010-04-08

    Psychological models are used to understand and predict behaviour in a wide range of settings, but have not been consistently applied to health professional behaviours, and the contribution of differing theories is not clear. This study explored the usefulness of a range of models to predict an evidence-based behaviour -- the placing of fissure sealants. Measures were collected by postal questionnaire from a random sample of general dental practitioners (GDPs) in Scotland. Outcomes were behavioural simulation (scenario decision-making), and behavioural intention. Predictor variables were from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), Common Sense Self-regulation Model (CS-SRM), Operant Learning Theory (OLT), Implementation Intention (II), Stage Model, and knowledge (a non-theoretical construct). Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the predictive value of each theoretical model individually. Significant constructs from all theories were then entered into a 'cross theory' stepwise regression analysis to investigate their combined predictive value. Behavioural simulation - theory level variance explained was: TPB 31%; SCT 29%; II 7%; OLT 30%. Neither CS-SRM nor stage explained significant variance. In the cross theory analysis, habit (OLT), timeline acute (CS-SRM), and outcome expectancy (SCT) entered the equation, together explaining 38% of the variance. Behavioural intention - theory level variance explained was: TPB 30%; SCT 24%; OLT 58%, CS-SRM 27%. GDPs in the action stage had significantly higher intention to place fissure sealants. In the cross theory analysis, habit (OLT) and attitude (TPB) entered the equation, together explaining 68% of the variance in intention. The study provides evidence that psychological models can be useful in understanding and predicting clinical behaviour. Taking a theory-based approach enables the creation of a replicable methodology for identifying factors that may predict clinical behaviour

  6. Applying psychological theories to evidence-based clinical practice: identifying factors predictive of placing preventive fissure sealants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maclennan Graeme

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Psychological models are used to understand and predict behaviour in a wide range of settings, but have not been consistently applied to health professional behaviours, and the contribution of differing theories is not clear. This study explored the usefulness of a range of models to predict an evidence-based behaviour -- the placing of fissure sealants. Methods Measures were collected by postal questionnaire from a random sample of general dental practitioners (GDPs in Scotland. Outcomes were behavioural simulation (scenario decision-making, and behavioural intention. Predictor variables were from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB, Social Cognitive Theory (SCT, Common Sense Self-regulation Model (CS-SRM, Operant Learning Theory (OLT, Implementation Intention (II, Stage Model, and knowledge (a non-theoretical construct. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the predictive value of each theoretical model individually. Significant constructs from all theories were then entered into a 'cross theory' stepwise regression analysis to investigate their combined predictive value Results Behavioural simulation - theory level variance explained was: TPB 31%; SCT 29%; II 7%; OLT 30%. Neither CS-SRM nor stage explained significant variance. In the cross theory analysis, habit (OLT, timeline acute (CS-SRM, and outcome expectancy (SCT entered the equation, together explaining 38% of the variance. Behavioural intention - theory level variance explained was: TPB 30%; SCT 24%; OLT 58%, CS-SRM 27%. GDPs in the action stage had significantly higher intention to place fissure sealants. In the cross theory analysis, habit (OLT and attitude (TPB entered the equation, together explaining 68% of the variance in intention. Summary The study provides evidence that psychological models can be useful in understanding and predicting clinical behaviour. Taking a theory-based approach enables the creation of a replicable methodology for

  7. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2007-07-04

    Antigen presenting cells (APCs) sample the extra cellular space and present peptides from here to T helper cells, which can be activated if the peptides are of foreign origin. The peptides are presented on the surface of the cells in complex with major histocompatibility class II (MHC II) molecules. Identification of peptides that bind MHC II molecules is thus a key step in rational vaccine design and developing methods for accurate prediction of the peptide:MHC interactions play a central role in epitope discovery. The MHC class II binding groove is open at both ends making the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC) and three mouse H2-IA alleles. The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR), we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance by favoring binding registers with a minimum PFR length of two amino acids. Visualizing the binding motif as obtained by the SMM-align and TEPITOPE methods highlights a series of fundamental discrepancies between the two predicted motifs. For the DRB1*1302 allele for instance, the TEPITOPE method favors basic amino acids at most anchor positions, whereas the SMM-align method identifies a preference for hydrophobic or neutral amino acids at the anchors. The SMM-align method was shown to outperform other

  8. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lund Ole

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Antigen presenting cells (APCs sample the extra cellular space and present peptides from here to T helper cells, which can be activated if the peptides are of foreign origin. The peptides are presented on the surface of the cells in complex with major histocompatibility class II (MHC II molecules. Identification of peptides that bind MHC II molecules is thus a key step in rational vaccine design and developing methods for accurate prediction of the peptide:MHC interactions play a central role in epitope discovery. The MHC class II binding groove is open at both ends making the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC and three mouse H2-IA alleles. Results The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR, we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance by favoring binding registers with a minimum PFR length of two amino acids. Visualizing the binding motif as obtained by the SMM-align and TEPITOPE methods highlights a series of fundamental discrepancies between the two predicted motifs. For the DRB1*1302 allele for instance, the TEPITOPE method favors basic amino acids at most anchor positions, whereas the SMM-align method identifies a preference for hydrophobic or neutral amino acids at the anchors. Conclusion

  9. The hierarchy of stability and predictability in orthognathic surgery with rigid fixation: an update and extension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillips Ceib

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A hierarchy of stability exists among the types of surgical movements that are possible with orthognathic surgery. This report updates the hierarchy, focusing on comparison of the stability of procedures when rigid fixation is used. Two procedures not previously placed in the hierarchy now are included: correction of asymmetry is stable with rigid fixation and repositioning of the chin also is very stable. During the first post-surgical year, surgical movements in patients treated for Class II/long face problems tend to be more stable than those treated for Class III problems. Clinically relevant changes (more than 2 mm occur in a surprisingly large percentage of orthognathic surgery patients from one to five years post-treatment, after surgical healing is complete. During the first post-surgical year, patients treated for Class II/long face problems are more stable than those treated for Class III problems; from one to five years post-treatment, some patients in both groups experience skeletal change, but the Class III patients then are more stable than the Class II/long face patients. Fewer patients exhibit long-term changes in the dental occlusion than skeletal changes, because the dentition usually adapts to the skeletal change.

  10. Development of advanced stability theory suction prediction techniques for laminar flow control. [on swept wings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srokowski, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of obtaining accurate estimates of suction requirements on swept laminar flow control wings was discussed. A fast accurate computer code developed to predict suction requirements by integrating disturbance amplification rates was described. Assumptions and approximations used in the present computer code are examined in light of flow conditions on the swept wing which may limit their validity.

  11. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  12. Applying psychological theories to evidence-based clinical practice: Identifying factors predictive of managing upper respiratory tract infections without antibiotics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glidewell Elizabeth

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Psychological models can be used to understand and predict behaviour in a wide range of settings. However, they have not been consistently applied to health professional behaviours, and the contribution of differing theories is not clear. The aim of this study was to explore the usefulness of a range of psychological theories to predict health professional behaviour relating to management of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs without antibiotics. Methods Psychological measures were collected by postal questionnaire survey from a random sample of general practitioners (GPs in Scotland. The outcome measures were clinical behaviour (using antibiotic prescription rates as a proxy indicator, behavioural simulation (scenario-based decisions to managing URTI with or without antibiotics and behavioural intention (general intention to managing URTI without antibiotics. Explanatory variables were the constructs within the following theories: Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB, Social Cognitive Theory (SCT, Common Sense Self-Regulation Model (CS-SRM, Operant Learning Theory (OLT, Implementation Intention (II, Stage Model (SM, and knowledge (a non-theoretical construct. For each outcome measure, multiple regression analysis was used to examine the predictive value of each theoretical model individually. Following this 'theory level' analysis, a 'cross theory' analysis was conducted to investigate the combined predictive value of all significant individual constructs across theories. Results All theories were tested, but only significant results are presented. When predicting behaviour, at the theory level, OLT explained 6% of the variance and, in a cross theory analysis, OLT 'evidence of habitual behaviour' also explained 6%. When predicting behavioural simulation, at the theory level, the proportion of variance explained was: TPB, 31%; SCT, 26%; II, 6%; OLT, 24%. GPs who reported having already decided to change their management to

  13. Benchmarking and qualification of the ppercase nufreq -ppercase npw code for best estimate prediction of multichannel core stability margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.; McFarlane, A.F.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.; Podowski, M.Z.

    1994-01-01

    The ppercase nufreq - ppercase np (G.C. Park et al. NUREG/CR-3375, 1983; S.J. Peng et al. NUREG/CR-4116, 1984; S.J. Peng et al. Nucl. Sci. Eng. 88 (1988) 404-411) code was modified and set up at Westinghouse, USA, for mixed fuel type multichannel core-wide stability analysis. The resulting code, ppercase nufreq - ppercase npw , allows for variable axial power profiles between channel groups and can handle mixed fuel types.Various models incorporated into ppercase nurfreq - ppercase npw were systematically compared against the Westinghouse channel stability analysis code ppercase mazda -ppercase nf (R. Taleyarkhan et al. J. Heat Transfer 107 (February 1985) 175-181; NUREG/CR2972, 1983), for which the mathematical model was developed in an entirely different manner. Excellent agreement was obtained which verified the thermal-hydraulic modeling and coding aspects. Detailed comparisons were also performed against nuclear-coupled reactor core stability data. All 13 Peach Bottom-2 EOC-2/3 low flow stability tests (L.A. Carmichael and R.O. Neimi, EPRI NP-564, Project 1020-1, 1978; F.B. Woffinden and R.O. Neimi, EPRI, NP 0972, Project 1020-2, 1981) were simulated. A key aspect for code qualification involved the development of a physically based empirical algorithm to correct for the effect of core inlet flow development on subcooled boiling. Various other modeling assumptions were tested and sensitivity studies performed. Good agreement was obtained between ppercase nufreq-npw predictions and data. ((orig.))

  14. Prediction of Combustion Stability and Flashback in Turbines with High-Hydrogen Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lieuwen, Tim [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Santavicca, Dom [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yang, Vigor [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    During the duration of this sponsorship, we broadened our understanding of combustion instabilities through both analytical and experimental work. Predictive models were developed for flame response to transverse acoustic instabilities and for quantifying how a turbulent flame responds to velocity and fuel/air ratio forcing. Analysis was performed on the key instability mechanisms controlling heat release response for flames over a wide range of instability frequencies. Importantly, work was done closely with industrial partners to transition existing models into internal instability prediction codes. Experimentally, the forced response of hydrogen-enriched natural gas/air premixed and partially premixed flames were measured. The response of a lean premixed flame was investigated, subjected to velocity, equivalence ratio, and both forcing mechanisms simultaneously. In addition, important physical mechanisms controlling the response of partially premixed flames to inlet velocity and equivalence ratio oscillations were analyzed. This final technical report summarizes our findings and major publications stemming from this program.

  15. Health status, quality of life, residential stability, substance use, and health care utilization among adults applying to a supportive housing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Stephen W; Gogosis, Evie; Chambers, Catharine; Dunn, James R; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Aubry, Tim

    2011-12-01

    Supportive housing, defined as subsidized housing in conjunction with site-based social services, may help improve the health and residential stability of highly disadvantaged individuals. This study examined changes in health status, quality of life, substance use, health care utilization, and residential stability among 112 homeless and vulnerably housed individuals who applied to a supportive housing program in Toronto, Canada, from December 2005 to June 2007. Follow-up interviews were conducted every 6 months for 18 months. Comparisons were made between individuals who were accepted into the program (intervention) and those who were wait-listed (usual care) using repeated-measures analyses. Individuals who were accepted into the housing program experienced significantly greater improvements in satisfaction with living situation compared with individuals in the usual care group (time, F(3,3,261) = 47.68, p life measures, health status, health care utilization, or substance use between the two groups over time. Significant improvement in residential stability occurred over time, independent of assigned housing group (time, F(3,3,261) = 9.96, p housing on homeless individuals was limited by the small number of participants who were literally homeless at baseline and by the large number of participants who gained stable housing during the study period regardless of their assigned housing status. Nonetheless, this study shows that highly disadvantaged individuals with a high prevalence of poor physical and mental health and substance use can achieve stable housing.

  16. Nonlinear rocket motor stability prediction: Limit amplitude, triggering, and mean pressure shifta)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flandro, Gary A.; Fischbach, Sean R.; Majdalani, Joseph

    2007-09-01

    High-amplitude pressure oscillations in solid propellant rocket motor combustion chambers display nonlinear effects including: (1) limit cycle behavior in which the fluctuations may dwell for a considerable period of time near their peak amplitude, (2) elevated mean chamber pressure (DC shift), and (3) a triggering amplitude above which pulsing will cause an apparently stable system to transition to violent oscillations. Along with the obvious undesirable vibrations, these features constitute the most damaging impact of combustion instability on system reliability and structural integrity. The physical mechanisms behind these phenomena and their relationship to motor geometry and physical parameters must, therefore, be fully understood if instability is to be avoided in the design process, or if effective corrective measures must be devised during system development. Predictive algorithms now in use have limited ability to characterize the actual time evolution of the oscillations, and they do not supply the motor designer with information regarding peak amplitudes or the associated critical triggering amplitudes. A pivotal missing element is the ability to predict the mean pressure shift; clearly, the designer requires information regarding the maximum chamber pressure that might be experienced during motor operation. In this paper, a comprehensive nonlinear combustion instability model is described that supplies vital information. The central role played by steep-fronted waves is emphasized. The resulting algorithm provides both detailed physical models of nonlinear instability phenomena and the critically needed predictive capability. In particular, the origin of the DC shift is revealed.

  17. Applying a new criterion to predict glass forming alloys in the Zr–Ni–Cu ternary system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Déo, L.P., E-mail: leonardopratavieira@gmail.com [Universidade de São Paulo, EESC, SMM - Av. Trabalhador São Carlense, 400 – São Carlos, SP 13566-590 (Brazil); Mendes, M.A.B., E-mail: marcio.andreato@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de São Carlos, DEMa - Rod. Washington Luiz, Km 235 – São Carlos, SP 13565-905 (Brazil); Costa, A.M.S., E-mail: alexmatos1980@gmail.com [Universidade de São Paulo, DEMAR, EEL – Polo Urbo-Industrial Gleba AI-6, s/n – Lorena, SP 12600-970 (Brazil); Campos Neto, N.D., E-mail: nelsonddcn@gmail.com [Universidade de São Paulo, EESC, SMM - Av. Trabalhador São Carlense, 400 – São Carlos, SP 13566-590 (Brazil); Oliveira, M.F. de, E-mail: falcao@sc.usp.br [Universidade de São Paulo, EESC, SMM - Av. Trabalhador São Carlense, 400 – São Carlos, SP 13566-590 (Brazil)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Calculation to predict and select the glass forming ability (GFA) of metallic alloys in Zr–Ni–Cu system. ► Good correlation between theoretical and experimental GFA samples. ► Combination of X-ray diffraction (XRD) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) techniques mainly to characterize the samples. ► Oxygen impurity dramatically reduced the GFA. ► The selection criterion used opens the possibility to obtain new amorphous alloys, reducing the experimental procedures of trial and error. -- Abstract: A new criterion has been recently proposed to predict and select the glass forming ability (GFA) of metallic alloys. It was found that the critical cooling rate for glass formation (R{sub c}) correlates well with a proper combination of two factors, the minimum topological instability (λ{sub min}) and the thermodynamic parameter (Δh). The (λ{sub min}) criterion is based on the concept of topological instability of stable crystalline structures and (Δh) depends on the average work function difference (Δϕ) and the average electron density difference Δn{sub ws}{sup 1/3} among the constituent elements of the alloy. In the present work, the selection criterion was applied in the Zr–Ni–Cu system and its predictability was analyzed experimentally. Ribbon-shaped and splat-shaped samples were produced by melt-spinning and splat-cooling techniques respectively. The crystallization content and behavior were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), respectively. The results showed a good correlation between the theoretical GFA values and the amorphous phase percentages found in different alloy compositions.

  18. Artificial neural networks applied for soil class prediction in mountainous landscape of the Serra do Mar¹

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braz Calderano Filho

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Soil information is needed for managing the agricultural environment. The aim of this study was to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of soil classes using orbital remote sensing products, terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model and local geology information as data sources. This approach to digital soil mapping was evaluated in an area with a high degree of lithologic diversity in the Serra do Mar. The neural network simulator used in this study was JavaNNS and the backpropagation learning algorithm. For soil class prediction, different combinations of the selected discriminant variables were tested: elevation, declivity, aspect, curvature, curvature plan, curvature profile, topographic index, solar radiation, LS topographic factor, local geology information, and clay mineral indices, iron oxides and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from an image of a Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+ sensor. With the tested sets, best results were obtained when all discriminant variables were associated with geological information (overall accuracy 93.2 - 95.6 %, Kappa index 0.924 - 0.951, for set 13. Excluding the variable profile curvature (set 12, overall accuracy ranged from 93.9 to 95.4 % and the Kappa index from 0.932 to 0.948. The maps based on the neural network classifier were consistent and similar to conventional soil maps drawn for the study area, although with more spatial details. The results show the potential of ANNs for soil class prediction in mountainous areas with lithological diversity.

  19. Indexes of Land Use Change to Predict Aggregate Stability in a Mollisol and a Vertisol of Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelli, L. E.; Caviglia, O. P.; Wilson, M. G.; Sasal, M. C.

    2012-04-01

    In several areas of South America, the extensive cropping systems in traditional agricultural lands have increase the area cropped with soybean, mainly as a single annual crop. Also nowadays agriculture has a progressive expansion toward more environmentally fragile areas that were traditionally occupied by livestock or native forests. This change of land use may be characterized through different indexes as the length of the growth period or the frequency of a particular crop in the cropping sequence. On the other hand the consequences of land-use changes on soil physical condition may be monitored through the aggregate stability, which is directly related to soil functionality. However, there are different methods for aggregate stability analysis, which may vary in their potential for prediction. The aim of our work was to assess different quantitative indexes of change in the land use on aggregate stability through two methods in two soils differing in the main agents of aggregation. The study was conducted in a Mollisol and a Vertisol from Argentina. Eleven fields (agricultural and crop-pasture rotation) under no-tillage and one natural grassland were selected in each soil type. The fraction of annual time with vegetal cover (as a measure of the intensification in the land use - ISI) and the frequency of a given crop (soybean - SCF; wheat - WCF; and wheat plus maize - CCF) in the cropping sequence over a 6-year period were calculated. Samples were collected at 0-5 and 5-15 cm depths from each soil. The mean weight diameter (MWD) of the soil aggregates where determined by two methods: Le Bissonnais with three pretreatment (fast wetting, slow wetting and stirring after prewetting) and by wet sieving using an instrument similar to the Yoder apparatus. The MWD by wet-sieving was affected by ISI and SCF, but the impact only was recorded in 0-5cm depth of the Mollisol. The MWD by fast and slow wetting and the means of three pretreatments (MWDm) were directly related

  20. Accurate Stabilities of Laccase Mutants Predicted with a Modified FoldX Protocol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Niels Johan; Kepp, Kasper Planeta

    2012-01-01

    ) with up to 11 simultaneously mutated sites with good correlation against experimental stability trends. Molecular dynamics simulations of the two laccases show that FoldX is very structure-sensitive, since all mutants and the wild-type must share structural configuration to avoid artifacts of local...... sampling. However, using the average of 50 MD snapshots of the equilibrated trajectories restores correlation (r ~0.7-0.9, r2 ~0.49-0.81) and provides a root-mean-square accuracy of ~1.2 kcal/mol for ∆∆G or 3.5 ○C for T50, suggesting that the time-average of the crystal structure is recovered. MD......-averaged input also reduces the spread in ∆∆G, suggesting that local FoldX sampling overestimates free energy changes because of neglected protein relaxation. FoldX can be viewed as a simple “linear interaction energy” method using sampling of wild-type and mutant and a parameterized relative free energy...

  1. Identifying and tracking pedestrians based on sensor fusion and motion stability predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musleh, Basam; García, Fernando; Otamendi, Javier; Armingol, José Maria; de la Escalera, Arturo

    2010-01-01

    The lack of trustworthy sensors makes development of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) applications a tough task. It is necessary to develop intelligent systems by combining reliable sensors and real-time algorithms to send the proper, accurate messages to the drivers. In this article, an application to detect and predict the movement of pedestrians in order to prevent an imminent collision has been developed and tested under real conditions. The proposed application, first, accurately measures the position of obstacles using a two-sensor hybrid fusion approach: a stereo camera vision system and a laser scanner. Second, it correctly identifies pedestrians using intelligent algorithms based on polylines and pattern recognition related to leg positions (laser subsystem) and dense disparity maps and u-v disparity (vision subsystem). Third, it uses statistical validation gates and confidence regions to track the pedestrian within the detection zones of the sensors and predict their position in the upcoming frames. The intelligent sensor application has been experimentally tested with success while tracking pedestrians that cross and move in zigzag fashion in front of a vehicle.

  2. Identifying and Tracking Pedestrians Based on Sensor Fusion and Motion Stability Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo de la Escalera

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The lack of trustworthy sensors makes development of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS applications a tough task. It is necessary to develop intelligent systems by combining reliable sensors and real-time algorithms to send the proper, accurate messages to the drivers. In this article, an application to detect and predict the movement of pedestrians in order to prevent an imminent collision has been developed and tested under real conditions. The proposed application, first, accurately measures the position of obstacles using a two-sensor hybrid fusion approach: a stereo camera vision system and a laser scanner. Second, it correctly identifies pedestrians using intelligent algorithms based on polylines and pattern recognition related to leg positions (laser subsystem and dense disparity maps and u-v disparity (vision subsystem. Third, it uses statistical validation gates and confidence regions to track the pedestrian within the detection zones of the sensors and predict their position in the upcoming frames. The intelligent sensor application has been experimentally tested with success while tracking pedestrians that cross and move in zigzag fashion in front of a vehicle.

  3. Predicting the stability of ternary intermetallics with density functional theory and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Jonathan; Chen, Liming; Botti, Silvana; Marques, Miguel A. L.

    2018-06-01

    We use a combination of machine learning techniques and high-throughput density-functional theory calculations to explore ternary compounds with the AB2C2 composition. We chose the two most common intermetallic prototypes for this composition, namely, the tI10-CeAl2Ga2 and the tP10-FeMo2B2 structures. Our results suggest that there may be ˜10 times more stable compounds in these phases than previously known. These are mostly metallic and non-magnetic. While the use of machine learning reduces the overall calculation cost by around 75%, some limitations of its predictive power still exist, in particular, for compounds involving the second-row of the periodic table or magnetic elements.

  4. Model predictive controller-based multi-model control system for longitudinal stability of distributed drive electric vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ke; Yuan, Xiaofang; Liu, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Distributed drive electric vehicle(DDEV) has been widely researched recently, its longitudinal stability is a very important research topic. Conventional wheel slip ratio control strategies are usually designed for one special operating mode and the optimal performance cannot be obtained as DDEV works under various operating modes. In this paper, a novel model predictive controller-based multi-model control system (MPC-MMCS) is proposed to solve the longitudinal stability problem of DDEV. Firstly, the operation state of DDEV is summarized as three kinds of typical operating modes. A submodel set is established to accurately represent the state value of the corresponding operating mode. Secondly, the matching degree between the state of actual DDEV and each submodel is analyzed. The matching degree is expressed as the weight coefficient and calculated by a modified recursive Bayes theorem. Thirdly, a nonlinear MPC is designed to achieve the optimal wheel slip ratio for each submodel. The optimal design of MPC is realized by parallel chaos optimization algorithm(PCOA)with computational accuracy and efficiency. Finally, the control output of MPC-MMCS is computed by the weighted output of each MPC to achieve smooth switching between operating modes. The proposed MPC-MMCS is evaluated on eight degrees of freedom(8DOF)DDEV model simulation platform and simulation results of different condition show the benefits of the proposed control system. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. (In)Congruence of implicit and explicit communal motives predicts the quality and stability of couple relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemeyer, Birk; Neberich, Wiebke; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J

    2013-08-01

    Previous research has shown that motive congruence, as observed in convergingly high or low scores on implicit and explicit motive measures, promotes well-being and health. Extending this individual perspective to the realm of couple relationships, the present investigation examined intra- and interpersonal effects of communal motive (in)congruence on relationship satisfaction and stability. The implicit partner-related need for communion, the explicit desire for closeness, and relationship satisfaction were assessed in a sample of 547 heterosexual couples aged 18 to 73 years. In a one-year follow-up study, information on relationship stability was obtained, and relationship satisfaction was reassessed. The researchers tested cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of motive (in)congruence by dyadic moderation analyses. Individuals scoring congruently high on both motives reported the highest relationship satisfaction in concurrence with motive assessment and 1 year later. In addition, motive incongruence predicted an increased risk of relationship breakup over 1 year. The results highlight the significance of both implicit and explicit motives for couple relationships. Motive incongruence was confirmed as a dispositional risk factor that so far has not been considered in couple research. Future research directions addressing potential mediators of the observed effects and potential moderators of motive (in)congruence are discussed. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Stability and Predictive Validity of the Parent-Child Sleep Interactions Scale: A Longitudinal Study Among Preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, Chelsey S; Jay, Samantha Y; Smith, Victoria C; Alfano, Candice A; Dougherty, Lea R

    2018-01-01

    Little research has examined the processes underlying children's persistent sleep problems and links with later psychopathology. The current study examined the stability of parent-child sleep interactions as assessed with the parent-reported Parent-Child Sleep Interactions Scale (PSIS) and examined whether sleep interactions in preschool-age children predict sleep problems and psychiatric symptoms later in childhood. Participants included 108 preschool-age children (50% female) and their parents. Parents completed the PSIS when children were 3-5 years (T1) and again when they were 6-9 years (T2). The PSIS includes three subscales-Sleep Reinforcement (reassurance of child sleep behaviors), Sleep Conflict (parent-child conflict at bedtime), Sleep Dependence (difficulty going to sleep without parent)-and a total score. Higher scores indicate more problematic bedtime interactions. Children's sleep problems and psychiatric symptoms at T1 and T2 were assessed with a clinical interview. PSIS scores were moderately stable from T1 to T2, and the factor structure of the PSIS remained relatively consistent over time. Higher total PSIS scores at T1 predicted increases in children's sleep problems at T2. Higher PSIS Sleep Conflict scores at T1 predicted increases in oppositional defiant disorder symptoms at T2. Children with more sleep problems and higher PSIS Sleep Reinforcement scores at T1 showed increases in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, depressive, and anxiety symptoms at T2. These findings provide evidence for the predictive validity of the PSIS and highlight the importance of early parent-child sleep interactions in the development of sleep and psychiatric symptoms in childhood. Parent-child sleep interactions may serve as a useful target for interventions.

  7. Predictive performance for population models using stochastic differential equations applied on data from an oral glucose tolerance test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Jonas B; Overgaard, Rune V; Madsen, Henrik; Hansen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Ingwersen, Steen H

    2010-02-01

    Several articles have investigated stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in PK/PD models, but few have quantitatively investigated the benefits to predictive performance of models based on real data. Estimation of first phase insulin secretion which reflects beta-cell function using models of the OGTT is a difficult problem in need of further investigation. The present work aimed at investigating the power of SDEs to predict the first phase insulin secretion (AIR (0-8)) in the IVGTT based on parameters obtained from the minimal model of the OGTT, published by Breda et al. (Diabetes 50(1):150-158, 2001). In total 174 subjects underwent both an OGTT and a tolbutamide modified IVGTT. Estimation of parameters in the oral minimal model (OMM) was performed using the FOCE-method in NONMEM VI on insulin and C-peptide measurements. The suggested SDE models were based on a continuous AR(1) process, i.e. the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and the extended Kalman filter was implemented in order to estimate the parameters of the models. Inclusion of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process caused improved description of the variation in the data as measured by the autocorrelation function (ACF) of one-step prediction errors. A main result was that application of SDE models improved the correlation between the individual first phase indexes obtained from OGTT and AIR (0-8) (r = 0.36 to r = 0.49 and r = 0.32 to r = 0.47 with C-peptide and insulin measurements, respectively). In addition to the increased correlation also the properties of the indexes obtained using the SDE models more correctly assessed the properties of the first phase indexes obtained from the IVGTT. In general it is concluded that the presented SDE approach not only caused autocorrelation of errors to decrease but also improved estimation of clinical measures obtained from the glucose tolerance tests. Since, the estimation time of extended models was not heavily increased compared to basic models, the applied method

  8. The Epidemiological Significance and Temporal Stability of Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats-Based Method Applied to Mycobacterium tuberculosis in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to validate the epidemiological significance and temporal stability of Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR typing in a genetically and geographically diverse set of clinical isolates from patients diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis in China. Between 2010 and 2013, a total of 982 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were collected from four population-based investigations in China. Apart from the currently applied 24-locus MIRU-VNTR, six additional hypervariable loci were analyzed in order to validate the MIRU-VNTR combinations in terms of their epidemiological links, clustering time span, and paired geographic distance. In vitro temporal stability was analyzed for both individual MIRU-VNTR loci, and for several combinations of loci. In the present study, four MIRU-VNTR combinations, including the hypervariable loci 3820, 3232, 2163a, and 4120, were evaluated. All of these combinations obtained a Hunter-Gaston discriminatory index (HGDI value over 0.9900 with a reduced clustering proportion (from 32.0% to 25.6%. By comparing epidemiological links, clustering time span, and paired geographic distance, we found that the performances of the four MIRU-VNTR combinations were comparable to the insertion sequence 6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (IS6110-RFLP, and significantly better than that of 24-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping alone. The proportion of temporally stable loci ranged from 90.5% to 92.5% within the combined MIRU-VNTR genotyping, which is higher than IS6110-RFLP (85.4%. By adding four hypervariable loci to the standard 24-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping, we obtained a high discriminatory power, stability and epidemiological significance. This algorithm could therefore be used to improve tuberculosis transmission surveillance and outbreak investigation in China.

  9. Biomechanical Measures During Landing and Postural Stability Predict Second Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction and Return to Sport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterno, Mark V.; Schmitt, Laura C.; Ford, Kevin R.; Rauh, Mitchell J.; Myer, Gregory D.; Huang, Bin; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2016-01-01

    Background Athletes who return to sport participation after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) have a higher risk of a second anterior cruciate ligament injury (either reinjury or contralateral injury) compared with non–anterior cruciate ligament–injured athletes. Hypotheses Prospective measures of neuromuscular control and postural stability after ACLR will predict relative increased risk for a second anterior cruciate ligament injury. Study Design Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods Fifty-six athletes underwent a prospective biomechanical screening after ACLR using 3-dimensional motion analysis during a drop vertical jump maneuver and postural stability assessment before return to pivoting and cutting sports. After the initial test session, each subject was followed for 12 months for occurrence of a second anterior cruciate ligament injury. Lower extremity joint kinematics, kinetics, and postural stability were assessed and analyzed. Analysis of variance and logistic regression were used to identify predictors of a second anterior cruciate ligament injury. Results Thirteen athletes suffered a subsequent second anterior cruciate ligament injury. Transverse plane hip kinetics and frontal plane knee kinematics during landing, sagittal plane knee moments at landing, and deficits in postural stability predicted a second injury in this population (C statistic = 0.94) with excellent sensitivity (0.92) and specificity (0.88). Specific predictive parameters included an increase in total frontal plane (valgus) movement, greater asymmetry in internal knee extensor moment at initial contact, and a deficit in single-leg postural stability of the involved limb, as measured by the Biodex stability system. Hip rotation moment independently predicted second anterior cruciate ligament injury (C = 0.81) with high sensitivity (0.77) and specificity (0.81). Conclusion Altered neuromuscular control of the hip and knee during a dynamic landing task

  10. Predicting health-promoting self-care behaviors in people with pre-diabetes by applying Bandura social learning theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mei-Fang; Wang, Ruey-Hsia; Hung, Shu-Ling

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to apply Bandura social learning theory in a model for identifying personal and environmental factors that predict health-promoting self-care behaviors in people with pre-diabetes. The theoretical basis of health-promoting self-care behaviors must be examined to obtain evidence-based knowledge that can help improve the effectiveness of pre-diabetes care. However, such behaviors are rarely studied in people with pre-diabetes. This quantitative, cross-sectional survey study was performed in a convenience sample of two hospitals in southern Taiwan. Two hundred people diagnosed with pre-diabetes at a single health examination center were recruited. A questionnaire survey was performed to collect data regarding personal factors (i.e., participant characteristics, pre-diabetes knowledge, and self-efficacy) and data regarding environmental factors (i.e., social support and perceptions of empowerment process) that may have associations with health-promoting self-care behaviors in people with pre-diabetes. Multiple linear regression showed that the factors that had the largest influence on the practice of health-promoting self-care behaviors were self-efficacy, diabetes history, perceptions of empowerment process, and pre-diabetes knowledge. These factors explained 59.3% of the variance in health-promoting self-care behaviors. To prevent the development of diabetes in people with pre-diabetes, healthcare professionals should consider both the personal and the environmental factors identified in this study when assessing health promoting self-care behaviors in patients with pre-diabetes and when selecting the appropriate interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. A Cross-Wavelet Transform Aided Rule Based Approach for Early Prediction of Lean Blow-out in Swirl-Stabilized Dump Combustor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debangshu Dey

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Lean or ultralean combustion is one of the popular strategies to achieve very low emission levels. However, it is extremely susceptible to lean blow-out (LBO. The present work explores a Cross-wavelet transform (XWT aided rule based scheme for early prediction of lean blowout. XWT can be considered as an advancement of wavelet analysis which gives correlation between two waveforms in time-frequency space. In the present scheme a swirl-stabilized dump combustor is used as a laboratory-scale model of a generic gas turbine combustor with LPG as fuel. Various time series data of CH chemiluminescence signal are recorded for different flame conditions by varying equivalence ratio, flow rate and level of air-fuel premixing. Some features are extracted from the cross-wavelet spectrum of the recorded waveforms and a reference wave. The extracted features are observed to classify the flame condition into three major classes: near LBO, moderate and healthy. Moreover, a Rough Set based technique is also applied on the extracted features to generate a rule base so that it can be fed to a real time controller or expert system to take necessary control action to prevent LBO. Results show that the proposed methodology performs with an acceptable degree of accuracy.

  12. Safety, Efficacy, Predictability and Stability Indices of Photorefractive Keratectomy for Correction of Myopic Astigmatism with Plano-Scan and Tissue-Saving Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Mohammadpour

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the safety, efficacy and predictability of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK [Tissue-saving (TS versus Plano-scan (PS ablation algorithms] of Technolas 217z excimer laser for correction of myopic astigmatismMethods: In this retrospective study one hundred and seventy eyes of 85 patients (107 eyes (62.9% with PS and 63 eyes (37.1% with TS algorithm were included. TS algorithm was applied for those with central corneal thickness less than 500 µm or estimated residual stromal thickness less than 420 µm. Mitomycin C (MMC was applied for 120 eyes (70.6%; in case of an ablation depth more than 60 μm and/or astigmatic correction more than one diopter (D. Mean sphere, cylinder, spherical equivalent (SE refraction, uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA were measured preoperatively, and 4 weeks,12 weeks and 24 weeks postoperatively.Results: One, three and six months postoperatively, 60%, 92.9%, 97.5% of eyes had UCVA of 20/20 or better, respectively. Mean preoperative and 1, 3, 6 months postoperative SE were -3.48±1.28 D (-1.00 to -8.75, -0.08±0.62D, -0.02±0.57 and -0.004± 0.29, respectively. And also, 87.6%, 94.1% and 100% were within ±1.0 D of emmetropia and 68.2, 75.3, 95% were within ±0.5 of emmetropia. The safety and efficacy indices were 0.99 and 0.99 at 12 weeks and 1.009 and 0.99 at 24 weeks, respectively. There was no clinically or statistically significant difference between the outcomes of PS or TS algorithms or between those with or without MMC in either group in terms of safety, efficacy, predictability or stability. Dividing the eyes with subjective SE≤4 D and SE≥4 D postoperatively, there was no significant difference between the predictability of the two groups. There was no intra- or postoperative complication.Conclusion: Outcomes of PRK for correction of myopic astigmatism showed great promise with both PS and TS algorithms.

  13. Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hristov, Y; Oxley, G; Žagar, M

    2014-01-01

    The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-ε turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies

  14. Safety, efficacy, predictability and stability of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a 1000-Hz scanning spot excimer laser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoramnia, Ramin; Salgado, Josefina P; Wuellner, Christian; Donitzky, Christof; Lohmann, Chris P; Winkler von Mohrenfels, Christoph

    2012-09-01

    To evaluate the safety, efficacy, predictability and stability of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a 1000-Hz scanning spot excimer laser (Concept System 1000; WaveLight GmbH, Erlangen, Germany). LASIK was performed on twenty eyes with myopia or myopic astigmatism (mean spherical equivalent refraction: -3.97±1.72 dioptres (D); mean cylinder: -0.84±0.77 D) using a microkeratome for flap creation and the Concept System 1000 for photoablation. Patients were examined preoperatively as well as 1, 3 and 6 months after the treatment. Manifest sphere and cylinder, uncorrected (UCDVA) and best corrected (BCDVA) distance visual acuity, corneal topography and pachymetry were analysed. We observed no adverse events that might have been associated with the use of a repetition rate of 1000 Hz. All eyes maintained or had improved BCDVA at 6 months after treatment when compared to preoperative values. Six months after LASIK, UCDVA was 20/20 or better in 85% and 20/25 or better in 100% of the eyes. The spherical equivalent refraction was within ±0.50 D in 95% of the eyes at 6 months after surgery. The refraction stayed stable over time; 95% of the eyes changedLASIK with the prototype 1000-Hz excimer laser was safe, efficient and predictable. The postoperative refraction was stable over time. There were no specific clinical side-effects that might be associated with the use of such a high repetition rate. © 2011 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2011 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  15. Stabilization of dendritic spine clusters and hyperactive Ras-MAPK signaling predict enhanced motor learning in an autistic savant mouse model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Thomas Ash

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available That both prominent behavioral inflexibility and exceptional learning abilities are seen occasionally in autistic patients is a mystery. We hypothesize that these altered patterns of learning and memory can arise from a pathological imbalance between the stability and plasticity of internal neural representations. We evaluated this hypothesis in the mouse model of MECP2 duplication syndrome, which demonstrates enhanced motor learning, stereotyped behaviors, and social avoidance. Learning-associated structural plasticity was measured in the motor cortex of MECP2 duplication mice by 2-photon imaging (Fig. 1A. An increased stabilization rate of learning-associated dendritic spines was observed in mutants, and this correlated with rotarod performance. Analysis of the spatial distribution of stabilized spines revealed that the mutant’s increased spine stabilization was due to a specific increase in the stability of spines jointly formed in ~9-micron clusters. Clustered spine stabilization but not isolated spine stabilization predicted enhanced motor performance in MECP2 duplication mice (Fig. 1B. Biochemical assays of Ras-MAPK and mTOR pathway activation demonstrated profound hyperphosphorylation of MAPK in the motor cortex of MECP2 duplication mice with motor training (Fig. 1C. Taken together these data suggest that a pathological bias towards hyperstability of learning-associated dendritic spine clusters driven by hyperactive Ras-MAPK signaling could contribute to neurobehavioral phenotypes in this form of syndromic autism.

  16. Cathodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) applied to the left premotor cortex (PMC) stabilizes a newly learned motor sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focke, Jan; Kemmet, Sylvia; Krause, Vanessa; Keitel, Ariane; Pollok, Bettina

    2017-01-01

    While the primary motor cortex (M1) is involved in the acquisition the premotor cortex (PMC) has been related to over-night consolidation of a newly learned motor skill. The present study aims at investigating the possible contribution of the left PMC for the stabilization of a motor sequence immediately after acquisition as determined by susceptibility to interference. Thirty six healthy volunteers received anodal, cathodal and sham transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to the left PMC either immediately prior to or during training on a serial reaction time task (SRTT) with the right hand. TDCS was applied for 10min, respectively. Reaction times were measured prior to training (t1), at the end of training (t2), and after presentation of an interfering random pattern (t3). Beyond interference from learning, the random pattern served as control condition in order to estimate general effects of tDCS on reaction times. TDCS applied during SRTT training did not result in any significant effects neither on acquisition nor on susceptibility to interference. In contrast to this, tDCS prior to SRTT training yielded an unspecific facilitation of reaction times at t2 independent of tDCS polarity. At t3, reduced susceptibility to interference was found following cathodal stimulation. The results suggest the involvement of the PMC in early consolidation and reveal a piece of evidence for the hypothesis that behavioral tDCS effects vary with the activation state of the stimulated area. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. The Predictive Validity of the Torrance Figural Test (Form B) of Creative Thinking in the College of Fine and Applied Arts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stallings, William M.

    In an effort to improve the predictability of course grades in the College of Fine and Applied Arts the Torrance Figural Test (Form B) of Creative Thinking was administered to entering 1968 freshmen. Four figural creativity variables (Fluency, Flexibility, Originality, and Elaboration) were correlated with course grades, American College Testing…

  18. Predicting the pKa and stability of organic acids and bases at an oil-water interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M P; Olsson, M H M; Stipp, S L S

    2014-06-10

    We have used density functional theory and the implicit solvent model, COSMO-RS, to investigate how the acidity constant, pKa, of organic acids and bases adsorbed at the organic compound-aqueous solution interface changes, compared to its value in the aqueous phase. The pKa determine the surface charge density of the molecules that accumulate at the fluid-fluid interface. We have estimated the pKa by comparing the stability of the protonated and unprotonated forms of a series of molecules in the bulk aqueous solution and at an interface where parts of each molecule reside in the hydrophobic phase and the rest remains in the hydrophilic phase. We found that the pKa for acids is shifted by ∼1 pH unit to higher values compared to the bulk water pKa, whereas they are shifted to lower values by a similar amount for bases. Because this pKa shift is similar in magnitude for each of the molecules studied, we propose that the pKa for molecules at a water-organic compound interface can easily be predicted by adding a small shift to the aqueous pKa. This shift is general and correlates with the functional group. We also found that the relative composition of molecules at the fluid-fluid interface is not the same as in the bulk. For example, species such as carboxylic acids are enriched at the interface, where they can dominate surface properties, even when they are a modest component in the bulk fluid. For high surface concentrations of carboxylic acid groups at an interface, such as a self-assembled monolayer, we have demonstrated that the pKa depends on the degree of deprotonation through direct hydrogen bonding between protonated and deprotonated acidic headgroups.

  19. Rapid method to predict the storage stability of middle distillates; Schnelltest zur Vorhersage der Lagerstabilitaet von Mitteldestillaten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Depta, H.; Wehn, R. [RWE - Gesellschaft fuer Forschung und Entwicklung mbH, Wesseling (Germany); Kohlmeyer, U. [Deutsche Shell AG, Hamburg (Germany)

    1998-12-01

    In the literature, various quick tests to predict the ageing stability of middle distillates are described. 59 gasoil components and finished products were tested, using methods recommended by a detailed literature study DGMK-Report 484, namely: - the colorimetric/spectrophotometric method according to R.K. Solly and S.J. Marshman, - the quantification of Soluble Macromolecular Oxidatively Reactive Species (SMORS) according to M.A. Wechter and D.R. Hardy, - the determination of phenalene and phenalenone as well as non-basic nitrogenous aromatics. ASTM D 4625-92 was used as a reference test (storage at 43 C over a period of 12 weeks, with air contact). The results obtained showed that none of the methods mentioned above are suitable as a reliable quick test, because the regression analysis shows no acceptable correlation between the data obtained and the insolubles derived from the reference test. The hypothesis of Pedley et al., referring to the ageing mechanism of middle distillates, could not be confirmed. The spectrophotometric method gives the best result, considering the total nitrogen content. The accuracy of the prediction of ASTM-Test results is about 75%. The additionally carried out `Rancimat-Test` does not correlate at all with the insolubles based on ASTM D 4625-92. The insolubles as determined according to ASTM D 4625 neither do correlate with the amount of sediments which are formed after one year`s storage under genuine conditions. On the other hand, the supplementarily conducted `Shell Window Test` allows a prediction of the longterm storage behaviour with a likelihood of 78% which is expected to improve after a revision of the method with regard to reproducible test conditions. (orig.) [Deutsch] In der Literatur werden verschiedene Schnelltests zur Vorhersage der Alterungsstabilitaet von Mitteldestillaten beschrieben. An 59 Gasoel-Komponenten und -Fertigprodukten wurden die in der Literaturrecherche DGMK-Bericht 484 empfohlenen Methoden ueberprueft

  20. The effect of graphene oxide on surface features, biological performance and bio-stability of calcium phosphate coating applied by pulse electrochemical deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathyunes, Leila; Khalil-Allafi, Jafar

    2018-04-01

    In the current study, the effect of second phase of graphene oxide (GO) on the surface features and biological behavior of calcium phosphate (CaP) coating was evaluated. To do so, the GO-CaP composite coating was applied on TiO2 nanotubular arrays using pulse electrochemical deposition. The SEM and AFM images showed that, the CaP-based coating with uniform and refined microstructure could be formed through its compositing with GO sheets. The biological assessment of the coatings was also conducted by cell culture test and MTT assay. Based on findings, the GO-CaP coating showed the better biocompatibility compared to the CaP coating. This could be owing to the fact that the composite coating provided the lower roughness, moderately wettable surface with a contact angle of 23.5° ± 2.6° and the higher stability in the biological environments because of being involved with only the stable phase of CHA. However, in the CaP coating, spreading of cells could be limited by the plate-like crystals with larger size. The higher solubility of the CaP coating in the cell culture medium possibly owing to the existence of some metastable CaP phases like OCP in addition to the dominant phase of CHA in this coating could be another reason for its less biocompatibility. At last, the CaP coating showed the higher apatite-forming ability in SBF solution after its compositing with GO.

  1. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers’ Beliefs Regarding Infants’ and Toddlers’ TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaala, Sarah E.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents’ decision-making about the extent of their young children’s viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents’ belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants’ and toddlers’ TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children’s TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children’s estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers’ attitudes and intentions and children’s viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25431537

  2. A Combined Hydrological and Hydraulic Model for Flood Prediction in Vietnam Applied to the Huong River Basin as a Test Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dang Thanh Mai

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A combined hydrological and hydraulic model is presented for flood prediction in Vietnam. This model is applied to the Huong river basin as a test case study. Observed flood flows and water surface levels of the 2002–2005 flood seasons are used for model calibration, and those of the 2006–2007 flood seasons are used for validation of the model. The physically based distributed hydrologic model WetSpa is used for predicting the generation and propagation of flood flows in the mountainous upper sub-basins, and proves to predict flood flows accurately. The Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS hydraulic model is applied to simulate flood flows and inundation levels in the downstream floodplain, and also proves to predict water levels accurately. The predicted water profiles are used for mapping of inundations in the floodplain. The model may be useful in developing flood forecasting and early warning systems to mitigate losses due to flooding in Vietnam.

  3. Prediction of overall in vitro microsomal stability of drug candidates based on molecular modeling and support vector machines. Case study of novel arylpiperazines derivatives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Ulenberg

    Full Text Available Other than efficacy of interaction with the molecular target, metabolic stability is the primary factor responsible for the failure or success of a compound in the drug development pipeline. The ideal drug candidate should be stable enough to reach its therapeutic site of action. Despite many recent excellent achievements in the field of computational methods supporting drug metabolism studies, a well-recognized procedure to model and predict metabolic stability quantitatively is still lacking. This study proposes a workflow for developing quantitative metabolic stability-structure relationships, taking a set of 30 arylpiperazine derivatives as an example. The metabolic stability of the compounds was assessed in in vitro incubations in the presence of human liver microsomes and NADPH and subsequently quantified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS. Density functional theory (DFT calculations were used to obtain 30 models of the molecules, and Dragon software served as a source of structure-based molecular descriptors. For modeling structure-metabolic stability relationships, Support Vector Machines (SVM, a non-linear machine learning technique, were found to be more effective than a regression technique, based on the validation parameters obtained. Moreover, for the first time, general sites of metabolism for arylpiperazines bearing the 4-aryl-2H-pyrido[1,2-c]pyrimidine-1,3-dione system were defined by analysis of Q-TOF-MS/MS spectra. The results indicated that the application of one of the most advanced chemometric techniques combined with a simple and quick in vitro procedure and LC-MS analysis provides a novel and valuable tool for predicting metabolic half-life values. Given the reduced time and simplicity of analysis, together with the accuracy of the predictions obtained, this is a valid approach for predicting metabolic stability using structural data. The approach presented provides a novel, comprehensive and reliable tool

  4. Electrostatic contribution of surface charge residues to the stability of a thermophilic protein: benchmarking experimental and predicted pKa values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Ho Chan

    Full Text Available Optimization of the surface charges is a promising strategy for increasing thermostability of proteins. Electrostatic contribution of ionizable groups to the protein stability can be estimated from the differences between the pKa values in the folded and unfolded states of a protein. Using this pKa-shift approach, we experimentally measured the electrostatic contribution of all aspartate and glutamate residues to the stability of a thermophilic ribosomal protein L30e from Thermococcus celer. The pKa values in the unfolded state were found to be similar to model compound pKas. The pKa values in both the folded and unfolded states obtained at 298 and 333 K were similar, suggesting that electrostatic contribution of ionizable groups to the protein stability were insensitive to temperature changes. The experimental pKa values for the L30e protein in the folded state were used as a benchmark to test the robustness of pKa prediction by various computational methods such as H++, MCCE, MEAD, pKD, PropKa, and UHBD. Although the predicted pKa values were affected by crystal contacts that may alter the side-chain conformation of surface charged residues, most computational methods performed well, with correlation coefficients between experimental and calculated pKa values ranging from 0.49 to 0.91 (p<0.01. The changes in protein stability derived from the experimental pKa-shift approach correlate well (r = 0.81 with those obtained from stability measurements of charge-to-alanine substituted variants of the L30e protein. Our results demonstrate that the knowledge of the pKa values in the folded state provides sufficient rationale for the redesign of protein surface charges leading to improved protein stability.

  5. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA (United States); and others

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant.

  6. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant

  7. Personality predictors of successful development: toddler temperament and adolescent personality traits predict well-being and career stability in middle adulthood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Blatný

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to predict both adaptive psychological functioning (well-being and adaptive social functioning (career stability in middle adulthood based on behaviors observed in toddlerhood and personality traits measured in adolescence. 83 people participated in an ongoing longitudinal study started in 1961 (58% women. Based on children's behavior in toddlerhood, three temperamental dimensions were identified - positive affectivity, negative affectivity and disinhibition. In adolescence, extraversion and neuroticism were measured at the age of 16 years. Various aspects of well-being were used as indicators of adaptive psychological functioning in adulthood: life satisfaction, self-esteem and self-efficacy. Career stability was used as an indicator of adaptive social functioning. Job careers of respondents were characterized as stable, unstable or changeable. Extraversion measured at the age of 16 proved to be the best predictor of well-being indicators; in case of self-efficacy it was also childhood disinhibition. Extraversion in adolescence, childhood disinhibition and negative affectivity predicted career stability. Findings are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework of higher order factors of the Big Five personality constructs, stability and plasticity.

  8. Personality Predictors of Successful Development: Toddler Temperament and Adolescent Personality Traits Predict Well-Being and Career Stability in Middle Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was to predict both adaptive psychological functioning (well-being) and adaptive social functioning (career stability) in middle adulthood based on behaviors observed in toddlerhood and personality traits measured in adolescence. 83 people participated in an ongoing longitudinal study started in 1961 (58% women). Based on children’s behavior in toddlerhood, three temperamental dimensions were identified – positive affectivity, negative affectivity and disinhibition. In adolescence, extraversion and neuroticism were measured at the age of 16 years. Various aspects of well-being were used as indicators of adaptive psychological functioning in adulthood: life satisfaction, self-esteem and self-efficacy. Career stability was used as an indicator of adaptive social functioning. Job careers of respondents were characterized as stable, unstable or changeable. Extraversion measured at the age of 16 proved to be the best predictor of well-being indicators; in case of self-efficacy it was also childhood disinhibition. Extraversion in adolescence, childhood disinhibition and negative affectivity predicted career stability. Findings are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework of higher order factors of the Big Five personality constructs, stability and plasticity. PMID:25919394

  9. Applying quantitative adiposity feature analysis models to predict benefit of bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in ovarian cancer patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yunzhi; Qiu, Yuchen; Thai, Theresa; More, Kathleen; Ding, Kai; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2016-03-01

    How to rationally identify epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients who will benefit from bevacizumab or other antiangiogenic therapies is a critical issue in EOC treatments. The motivation of this study is to quantitatively measure adiposity features from CT images and investigate the feasibility of predicting potential benefit of EOC patients with or without receiving bevacizumab-based chemotherapy treatment using multivariate statistical models built based on quantitative adiposity image features. A dataset involving CT images from 59 advanced EOC patients were included. Among them, 32 patients received maintenance bevacizumab after primary chemotherapy and the remaining 27 patients did not. We developed a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to automatically segment subcutaneous fat areas (VFA) and visceral fat areas (SFA) and then extracted 7 adiposity-related quantitative features. Three multivariate data analysis models (linear regression, logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression) were performed respectively to investigate the potential association between the model-generated prediction results and the patients' progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The results show that using all 3 statistical models, a statistically significant association was detected between the model-generated results and both of the two clinical outcomes in the group of patients receiving maintenance bevacizumab (p<0.01), while there were no significant association for both PFS and OS in the group of patients without receiving maintenance bevacizumab. Therefore, this study demonstrated the feasibility of using quantitative adiposity-related CT image features based statistical prediction models to generate a new clinical marker and predict the clinical outcome of EOC patients receiving maintenance bevacizumab-based chemotherapy.

  10. Crop Yield Predictions - High Resolution Statistical Model for Intra-season Forecasts Applied to Corn in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Accurately forecasting crop yields has broad implications for economic trading, food production monitoring, and global food security. However, the variation of environmental variables presents challenges to model yields accurately, especially when the lack of highly accurate measurements creates difficulties in creating models that can succeed across space and time. In 2016, we developed a sequence of machine-learning based models forecasting end-of-season corn yields for the US at both the county and national levels. We combined machine learning algorithms in a hierarchical way, and used an understanding of physiological processes in temporal feature selection, to achieve high precision in our intra-season forecasts, including in very anomalous seasons. During the live run, we predicted the national corn yield within 1.40% of the final USDA number as early as August. In the backtesting of the 2000-2015 period, our model predicts national yield within 2.69% of the actual yield on average already by mid-August. At the county level, our model predicts 77% of the variation in final yield using data through the beginning of August and improves to 80% by the beginning of October, with the percentage of counties predicted within 10% of the average yield increasing from 68% to 73%. Further, the lowest errors are in the most significant producing regions, resulting in very high precision national-level forecasts. In addition, we identify the changes of important variables throughout the season, specifically early-season land surface temperature, and mid-season land surface temperature and vegetation index. For the 2017 season, we feed 2016 data to the training set, together with additional geospatial data sources, aiming to make the current model even more precise. We will show how our 2017 US corn yield forecasts converges in time, which factors affect the yield the most, as well as present our plans for 2018 model adjustments.

  11. Improvement of predictive tools for vapor-liquid equilibrium based on group contribution methods applied to lipid technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damaceno, Daniela S.; Perederic, Olivia A.; Ceriani, Roberta

    2017-01-01

    structures that the first-order functional groups are unable to handle. In the particular case of fatty systems these models are not able to adequately predict the non-ideality in the liquid phase. Consequently, a new set of functional groups is proposed to represent the lipid compounds, requiring thereby....... There are rather small differences between the models and no single model is the best in all cases....

  12. Applying Probability Theory for the Quality Assessment of a Wildfire Spread Prediction Framework Based on Genetic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Cencerrado

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a framework for assessing how the existing constraints at the time of attending an ongoing forest fire affect simulation results, both in terms of quality (accuracy obtained and the time needed to make a decision. In the wildfire spread simulation and prediction area, it is essential to properly exploit the computational power offered by new computing advances. For this purpose, we rely on a two-stage prediction process to enhance the quality of traditional predictions, taking advantage of parallel computing. This strategy is based on an adjustment stage which is carried out by a well-known evolutionary technique: Genetic Algorithms. The core of this framework is evaluated according to the probability theory principles. Thus, a strong statistical study is presented and oriented towards the characterization of such an adjustment technique in order to help the operation managers deal with the two aspects previously mentioned: time and quality. The experimental work in this paper is based on a region in Spain which is one of the most prone to forest fires: El Cap de Creus.

  13. Predictive Control Applied to a Solar Desalination Plant Connected to a Greenhouse with Daily Variation of Irrigation Water Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Roca

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The water deficit in the Mediterranean area is a known matter severely affecting agriculture. One way to avoid the aquifers’ exploitation is to supply water to crops by using thermal desalination processes. Moreover, in order to guarantee long-term sustainability, the required thermal energy for the desalination process can be provided by solar energy. This paper shows simulations for a case study in which a solar multi-effect distillation plant produces water for irrigation purposes. Detailed models of the involved systems are the base of a predictive controller to operate the desalination plant and fulfil the water demanded by the crops.

  14. Optimization the Initial Weights of Artificial Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm Applied to Hip Bone Fracture Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Tzu Chang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to find the optimal set of initial weights to enhance the accuracy of artificial neural networks (ANNs by using genetic algorithms (GA. The sample in this study included 228 patients with first low-trauma hip fracture and 215 patients without hip fracture, both of them were interviewed with 78 questions. We used logistic regression to select 5 important factors (i.e., bone mineral density, experience of fracture, average hand grip strength, intake of coffee, and peak expiratory flow rate for building artificial neural networks to predict the probabilities of hip fractures. Three-layer (one hidden layer ANNs models with back-propagation training algorithms were adopted. The purpose in this paper is to find the optimal initial weights of neural networks via genetic algorithm to improve the predictability. Area under the ROC curve (AUC was used to assess the performance of neural networks. The study results showed the genetic algorithm obtained an AUC of 0.858±0.00493 on modeling data and 0.802 ± 0.03318 on testing data. They were slightly better than the results of our previous study (0.868±0.00387 and 0.796±0.02559, resp.. Thus, the preliminary study for only using simple GA has been proved to be effective for improving the accuracy of artificial neural networks.

  15. Making oxidation potentials predictable: Coordination of additives applied to the electronic fine tuning of an iron(II) complex

    KAUST Repository

    Haslinger, Stefan

    2014-11-03

    This work examines the impact of axially coordinating additives on the electronic structure of a bioinspired octahedral low-spin iron(II) N-heterocyclic carbene (Fe-NHC) complex. Bearing two labile trans-acetonitrile ligands, the Fe-NHC complex, which is also an excellent oxidation catalyst, is prone to axial ligand exchange. Phosphine- and pyridine-based additives are used for substitution of the acetonitrile ligands. On the basis of the resulting defined complexes, predictability of the oxidation potentials is demonstrated, based on a correlation between cyclic voltammetry experiments and density functional theory calculated molecular orbital energies. Fundamental insights into changes of the electronic properties upon axial ligand exchange and the impact on related attributes will finally lead to target-oriented manipulation of the electronic properties and consequently to the effective tuning of the reactivity of bioinspired systems.

  16. Making oxidation potentials predictable: Coordination of additives applied to the electronic fine tuning of an iron(II) complex

    KAUST Repository

    Haslinger, Stefan; Kü ck, Jens W.; Hahn, Eva M.; Cokoja, Mirza; Pö thig, Alexander; Basset, Jean-Marie; Kü hn, Fritz

    2014-01-01

    This work examines the impact of axially coordinating additives on the electronic structure of a bioinspired octahedral low-spin iron(II) N-heterocyclic carbene (Fe-NHC) complex. Bearing two labile trans-acetonitrile ligands, the Fe-NHC complex, which is also an excellent oxidation catalyst, is prone to axial ligand exchange. Phosphine- and pyridine-based additives are used for substitution of the acetonitrile ligands. On the basis of the resulting defined complexes, predictability of the oxidation potentials is demonstrated, based on a correlation between cyclic voltammetry experiments and density functional theory calculated molecular orbital energies. Fundamental insights into changes of the electronic properties upon axial ligand exchange and the impact on related attributes will finally lead to target-oriented manipulation of the electronic properties and consequently to the effective tuning of the reactivity of bioinspired systems.

  17. Strong ground motion prediction applying dynamic rupture simulations for Beppu-Haneyama Active Fault Zone, southwestern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimi, M.; Matsushima, S.; Ando, R.; Miyake, H.; Imanishi, K.; Hayashida, T.; Takenaka, H.; Suzuki, H.; Matsuyama, H.

    2017-12-01

    We conducted strong ground motion prediction for the active Beppu-Haneyama Fault zone (BHFZ), Kyushu island, southwestern Japan. Since the BHFZ runs through Oita and Beppy cities, strong ground motion as well as fault displacement may affect much to the cities.We constructed a 3-dimensional velocity structure of a sedimentary basin, Beppu bay basin, where the fault zone runs through and Oita and Beppu cities are located. Minimum shear wave velocity of the 3d model is 500 m/s. Additional 1-d structure is modeled for sites with softer sediment: holocene plain area. We observed, collected, and compiled data obtained from microtremor surveys, ground motion observations, boreholes etc. phase velocity and H/V ratio. Finer structure of the Oita Plain is modeled, as 250m-mesh model, with empirical relation among N-value, lithology, depth and Vs, using borehole data, then validated with the phase velocity data obtained by the dense microtremor array observation (Yoshimi et al., 2016).Synthetic ground motion has been calculated with a hybrid technique composed of a stochastic Green's function method (for HF wave), a 3D finite difference (LF wave) and 1D amplification calculation. Fault geometry has been determined based on reflection surveys and active fault map. The rake angles are calculated with a dynamic rupture simulation considering three fault segments under a stress filed estimated from source mechanism of earthquakes around the faults (Ando et al., JpGU-AGU2017). Fault parameters such as the average stress drop, a size of asperity etc. are determined based on an empirical relation proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2001). As a result, strong ground motion stronger than 100 cm/s is predicted in the hanging wall side of the Oita plain.This work is supported by the Comprehensive Research on the Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

  18. Neural networks prediction and fault diagnosis applied to stationary and non stationary ARMA (Autoregressive moving average) modeled time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, M.; Minoggio, S.; Rossi, A.; Zio, E.

    1992-01-01

    The correlated noise affecting many industrial plants under stationary or cyclo-stationary conditions - nuclear reactors included -has been successfully modeled by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) due to the versatility of this technique. The relatively recent neural network methods have similar features and much effort is being devoted to exploring their usefulness in forecasting and control. Identifying a signal by means of an ARMA model gives rise to the problem of selecting its correct order. Similar difficulties must be faced when applying neural network methods and, specifically, particular care must be given to the setting up of the appropriate network topology, the data normalization procedure and the learning code. In the present paper the capability of some neural networks of learning ARMA and seasonal ARMA processes is investigated. The results of the tested cases look promising since they indicate that the neural networks learn the underlying process with relative ease so that their forecasting capability may represent a convenient fault diagnosis tool. (Author)

  19. Construction of predictive models for radionuclide sorption applied to radioactive waste deep storage: an overview of the CEA research program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christophe Poinssot; Etienne Tevissen; Jacques Ly; Michael Descostes; Virginie Blin; Catherine Beaucaire; Florence Goutelard; Christelle Latrille; Philippe Jacquier

    2006-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Deep geological storage is studied in France as one of the three potential options for managing long lived nuclear waste in the framework of the 1991 Law. One of the key topics of research deals with the behaviour of radionuclides (RN) in the geological environment, focusing in particular on the retention at the solid/water interfaces (in the engineered barriers or within the host rock), the diffusion process within the rock as well as the coupling between chemistry and transport processes. The final aim is to develop validated and reliable long-term predictive migration models. These researches are mainly coping with Callovo-Oxfordian argilites and near field materials such as cement and bentonite. Research are dealing both with the near-field environment - which is characterised by its evolution with time in terms of temperature, Eh balance, water composition - and the far-field environment, the chemistry of which is assumed to be roughly constant. Modelling the global RN migration in geological disposal requires having models which are intrinsically able to account for the evolution of the physical and chemical conditions of the environment. From the standpoint of performance assessment it is then necessary to acquire thermodynamic descriptions of the retention processes in order to perform calculations of the reactive transport of radionuclides In a first approach, CEA is developing for more than 15 years experiments and modelling to derive reliable predictive models for the RN migration in the geological disposal. For this purpose, a specific approach entitled the Ion-Exchangers Theory IXT was developed. It allows first to characterise the intrinsic retention properties of the pure minerals, i.e. to get evidence about the mono or multi-site character of the surface, to quantify the site(s) concentration(s) and to study the relative affinity of major solutes generally present in natural waters. This work provided a broad data

  20. Quantitative assessment of the risk of microbial spoilage in foods. Prediction of non-stability at 55 °C caused by Geobacillus stearothermophilus in canned green beans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigaux, Clémence; André, Stéphane; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

    2014-02-03

    Microbial spoilage of canned foods by thermophilic and highly heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria, such as Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is a persistent problem in the food industry. An incubation test at 55 °C for 7 days, then validation of biological stability, is used as an indicator of compliance with good manufacturing practices. We propose a microbial risk assessment model predicting the percentage of non-stability due to G. stearothermophilus in canned green beans manufactured by a French company. The model accounts for initial microbial contaminations of fresh unprocessed green beans with G. stearothermophilus, cross-contaminations in the processing chain, inactivation processes and probability of survival and growth. The sterilization process is modeled by an equivalent heating time depending on sterilization value F₀ and on G. stearothermophilus resistance parameter z(T). Following the recommendations of international organizations, second order Monte-Carlo simulations are used, separately propagating uncertainty and variability on parameters. As a result of the model, the mean predicted non-stability rate is of 0.5%, with a 95% uncertainty interval of [0.1%; 1.2%], which is highly similar to data communicated by the French industry. A sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices and some scenario tests underline the importance of cross-contamination at the blanching step, in addition to inactivation due to the sterilization process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessment of structures and stabilities of defect clusters and surface energies predicted by nine interatomic potentials for UO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taller, Stephen A. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Bai, Xian-Ming, E-mail: xianming.bai@inl.gov [Fuels Modeling and Simulation Department, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    The irradiation in nuclear reactors creates many point defects and defect clusters in uranium dioxide (UO{sub 2}) and their evolution severely degrades the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear fuels. Previously many empirical interatomic potentials have been developed for modeling defect production and evolution in UO{sub 2}. However, the properties of defect clusters and extended defects are usually not fitted into these potentials. In this work nine interatomic potentials for UO{sub 2} are examined by using molecular statics and molecular dynamics to assess their applicability in predicting the properties of various types of defect clusters in UO{sub 2}. The binding energies and structures for these defect clusters have been evaluated for each potential. In addition, the surface energies of voids of different radii and (1 1 0) flat surfaces predicted by these potentials are also evaluated. It is found that both good agreement and significant discrepancies exist for these potentials in predicting these properties. For oxygen interstitial clusters, these potentials predict significantly different defect cluster structures and stabilities; For defect clusters consisting of both uranium and oxygen defects, the prediction is in better agreement; The surface energies predicted by these potentials have significant discrepancies, and some of them are much higher than the experimentally measured values. The results from this work can provide insight on interpreting the outcome of atomistic modeling of defect production using these potentials and may provide guidelines for choosing appropriate potential models to study problems of interest in UO{sub 2}.

  2. Extending and Applying Spartan to Perform Temporal Sensitivity Analyses for Predicting Changes in Influential Biological Pathways in Computational Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alden, Kieran; Timmis, Jon; Andrews, Paul S; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Through integrating real time imaging, computational modelling, and statistical analysis approaches, previous work has suggested that the induction of and response to cell adhesion factors is the key initiating pathway in early lymphoid tissue development, in contrast to the previously accepted view that the process is triggered by chemokine mediated cell recruitment. These model derived hypotheses were developed using spartan, an open-source sensitivity analysis toolkit designed to establish and understand the relationship between a computational model and the biological system that model captures. Here, we extend the functionality available in spartan to permit the production of statistical analyses that contrast the behavior exhibited by a computational model at various simulated time-points, enabling a temporal analysis that could suggest whether the influence of biological mechanisms changes over time. We exemplify this extended functionality by using the computational model of lymphoid tissue development as a time-lapse tool. By generating results at twelve- hour intervals, we show how the extensions to spartan have been used to suggest that lymphoid tissue development could be biphasic, and predict the time-point when a switch in the influence of biological mechanisms might occur.

  3. Neurocognitive Deficits in Adolescents with Schizophrenia: Longitudinal Stability and Predictive Utility for Short-Term Functional Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervellione, Kelly L.; Burdick, Katherine E.; Cottone, John G.; Rhinewine, Joseph P.; Kumra, Sanjiv

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Previous cross-sectional studies in adolescents with early-onset schizophrenia (EOS; onset of psychotic symptoms by 18 years of age) have reported patterns of generalized neurocognitive deficits as compared to healthy comparison subjects (HCSs). Here, the authors examined the longitudinal stability of neuropsychological deficits in…

  4. The NATO STO Task Group AVT-201 on Extended Assessment of Stability and Control Prediction Methods for NATO Air Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-20

    concentrated on SACCON. The planform and section profiles were defined in cooperation between DLR and EADS -MAS during the early stages of AVT-161. DLR...however most predictions were made as first-order temporal predictions. Given the highly unsteady flow fields observed by the experiments, unsteady

  5. Natural speech algorithm applied to baseline interview data can predict which patients will respond to psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; Fernández Slezak, Diego; Ashton, Philip; Fitzgerald, Lily; Stroud, Jack; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

    2018-04-01

    Natural speech analytics has seen some improvements over recent years, and this has opened a window for objective and quantitative diagnosis in psychiatry. Here, we used a machine learning algorithm applied to natural speech to ask whether language properties measured before psilocybin for treatment-resistant can predict for which patients it will be effective and for which it will not. A baseline autobiographical memory interview was conducted and transcribed. Patients with treatment-resistant depression received 2 doses of psilocybin, 10 mg and 25 mg, 7 days apart. Psychological support was provided before, during and after all dosing sessions. Quantitative speech measures were applied to the interview data from 17 patients and 18 untreated age-matched healthy control subjects. A machine learning algorithm was used to classify between controls and patients and predict treatment response. Speech analytics and machine learning successfully differentiated depressed patients from healthy controls and identified treatment responders from non-responders with a significant level of 85% of accuracy (75% precision). Automatic natural language analysis was used to predict effective response to treatment with psilocybin, suggesting that these tools offer a highly cost-effective facility for screening individuals for treatment suitability and sensitivity. The sample size was small and replication is required to strengthen inferences on these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Predictive models applied to groundwater level forecasting: a preliminary experience on the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brozzo, Gianpiero; Doveri, Marco; Lelli, Matteo; Scozzari, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    Computer-based decision support systems are getting a growing interest for water managing authorities and water distribution companies. This work discusses a preliminary experience in the application of computational intelligence in a hydrological modeling framework, regarding the study area of the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy). Two sites in the studied area, corresponding to two distinct groups of wells (Battifollo and Fornola) are managed by the local drinkable water distribution company (ACAM Acque), which serves the area of La Spezia, on the Ligurian coast. Battifollo has 9 wells with a total extraction rate of about 240 liters per second, while Fornola has 44 wells with an extraction rate of about 900 liters per second. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term monitoring activities in order to assess the trend of the groundwater level with respect to a set of environmental and exploitation parameters; this is accomplished by the experimentation of a suitable model, eligible to be used as a predictor. This activity moves on from the modeling of the system behavior, based on a set of Input/Output data, in order to characterize it without necessarily a prior knowledge of any deterministic mechanism (system identification). In this context, data series collected by continuous hydrological monitoring instrumentation installed in the studied sites, together with meteorological and water extraction data, have been analyzed in order to assess the applicability and performance of a predictive model of the groundwater level. A mixed approach (both data driven and process-based) has been experimented on the whole dataset relating to the last ten years of continuous monitoring activity. The system identification approach presented here is based on the integration of an adaptive technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a blind deterministic identification approach. According to this concept, the behavior of

  7. Predictive tools and data needs for long term performance of in-situ stabilization and containment systems: DOE/OST stabilization workshop, June 26-27, Park City, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borns, D.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper summarizes the discussion within the Predictive Tools and Data Needs for Long Term Performance Assessment Subgroup. This subgroup formed at the DOE Office of Science and Technology workshop to address long-term performance of in situ stabilization and containment systems. The workshop was held in Park City, Utah, 26 and 27 June, 1996. All projects, engineering and environmental, have built-in decision processes that involve varying risk/reward scenarios. Such decision-processes maybe awkward to describe but are utilized every day following approaches that range from intuitive to advanced mathematical and numerical. Examples are the selection of components of home sound system, the members of a sports team, investments in a portfolio, and the members of a committee. Inherent in the decision method are an understanding of the function or process of the system requiring a decision or prediction, an understanding of the criteria on which decisions are made such as cost, performance, durability and verifiability. Finally, this process requires a means to judge or predict how the objects, activities, people and processes being analyzed will perform relative to the operations and functions of the system and relative to the decision criteria posed for the problem. These risk and decision analyses are proactive and iterative throughout the life of a remediation project. Prediction inherent to the analyses are based on intuition, experience, trial and error, and system analysis often using numerical approaches

  8. Linear stability of tearing modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowley, S.C.; Kulsrud, R.M.; Hahm, T.S.

    1986-05-01

    This paper examines the stability of tearing modes in a sheared slab when the width of the tearing layer is much smaller than the ion Larmor radius. The ion response is nonlocal, and the quasineutrality retains its full integal form. An expansion procedure is introduced to solve the quasineutrality equation in powers of the width of the tearing layer over the ion Larmor radius. The expansion procedure is applied to the collisionless and semi-collisional tearing modes. The first order terms in the expansion we find to be strongly stabilizing. The physics of the mode and of the stabilization is discussed. Tearing modes are observed in experiments even though the slab theory predicts stability. It is proposed that these modes grow from an equilibrium with islands at the rational surfaces. If the equilibrium islands are wider than the ion Larmor radius, the mode is unstable when Δ' is positive

  9. Small disturbances stability analysis applied in a radial distribution system with distributed generation units; Analise de estabilidade a pequenos disturbios aplicada em um sistema de distribuicao radial com unidades de geracao distribuida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorca, Daniel Azevedo; Camacho, Jose Roberto [Universidade Federal de Uberlandia (UFU), MG (Brazil). Curso de Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrica

    2008-07-01

    This work investigates the small-disturbance stability of a 30 bus radial distribution system with distributed generation units. This work is realized through the time domain simulations and through the eigenvalue analysis and participation factors. The eigenvalue analysis show that is possible to predict a possible system instability face to a disturbance. The development of this work was stimulated by the increasing of the distributed generation units in the distribution networks. (author)

  10. The Impact of Applying Quality Management Practices on Patient Centeredness in Jordanian Public Hospitals: Results of Predictive Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hijazi, Heba H; Harvey, Heather L; Alyahya, Mohammad S; Alshraideh, Hussam A; Al Abdi, Rabah M; Parahoo, Sanjai K

    2018-01-01

    Targeting the patient's needs and preferences has become an important contributor for improving care delivery, enhancing patient satisfaction, and achieving better clinical outcomes. This study aimed to examine the impact of applying quality management practices on patient centeredness within the context of health care accreditation and to explore the differences in the views of various health care workers regarding the attributes affecting patient-centered care. Our study followed a cross-sectional survey design wherein 4 Jordanian public hospitals were investigated several months after accreditation was obtained. Total 829 clinical/nonclinical hospital staff members consented for study participation. This sample was divided into 3 main occupational categories to represent the administrators, nurses, as well as doctors and other health professionals. Using a structural equation modeling, our results indicated that the predictors of patient-centered care for both administrators and those providing clinical care were participation in the accreditation process, leadership commitment to quality improvement, and measurement of quality improvement outcomes. In particular, perceiving the importance of the hospital's engagement in the accreditation process was shown to be relevant to the administrators (gamma = 0.96), nurses (gamma = 0.80), as well as to doctors and other health professionals (gamma = 0.71). However, the administrator staff (gamma = 0.31) was less likely to perceive the influence of measuring the quality improvement outcomes on the delivery of patient-centered care than nurses (gamma = 0.59) as well as doctors and other health care providers (gamma = 0.55). From the nurses' perspectives only, patient centeredness was found to be driven by building an institutional framework that supports quality assurance in hospital settings (gamma = 0.36). In conclusion, accreditation is a leading factor for delivering patient-centered care and should be on a hospital

  11. Predictibility of the stability constant of a radium-cryptate by means of in vivo data from radioactive alkaline earthes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, W H

    1977-08-01

    By means of a formula, developed by J. Schubert[9] and A. Catsch, H.J. Heller[3] as well as a relation postulated by A. Catsch[1] the "thermodynamic" stability constant of the Radium (222)-cryptate (KRaRa(222) was calculated from measurements of the total body retention of the total body retention of the radioactive alkaline earthes 85SR, 140Ba and 224Ra and its (222)-cryptates in rats [5-7]. From the same in vivo data a direct lineary relationship between the log of the effectiveness quotient, log EQM(222), and the log of the "thermodynamic" stability log KMM(222) was found graphically. The values from the graph correspond with those of the calculation.

  12. Predicting weight status stability and change from fifth grade to eighth grade: the significant role of adolescents' social-emotional well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yiting; Gable, Sara

    2013-04-01

    The primary objective of this study was to predict weight status stability and change across the transition to adolescence using parent reports of child and household routines and teacher and child self-reports of social-emotional development. Data were from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K), a nationally representative sample of children who entered kindergarten during 1998-1999 and were followed through eighth grade. At fifth grade, parents reported on child and household routines and the study child and his/her primary classroom teacher reported on the child's social-emotional functioning. At fifth and eighth grade, children were directly weighed and measured at school. Nine mutually-exclusive weight trajectory groups were created to capture stability or change in weight status from fifth to eighth grade: (1) stable obese (ObeSta); (2) obese to overweight (ObePos1); (3) obese to healthy (ObePos2); (4) stable overweight (OverSta); (5) overweight to healthy (OverPos); (6) overweight to obese (OverNeg); (7) stable healthy (HelSta); (8) healthy to overweight (HelNeg1); and (9) healthy to obese (HelNeg2). Except for breakfast consumption at home, school-provided lunches, nighttime sleep duration, household and child routines did not predict stability or change in weight status. Instead, weight status trajectory across the transition to adolescence was significantly predicted by measures of social-emotional functioning at fifth grade. Assessing children's social-emotional well-being in addition to their lifestyle routines during the transition to adolescence is a noteworthy direction for adolescent obesity prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Mathematics applied to fluid mechanics and stability; Proceedings of the Conference, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, Sept. 9-11, 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drew, D.A.; Flaherty, J.E.

    1986-01-01

    The mathematical analysis of fluid mechanics and stability and its applications in science and engineering are examined in reviews and reports. Topics addressed include Taylor-vortex flow, isothermal fluid-film lubrication theories, the morphology of spiral galaxies, rotating-fluid problems in ballistics, coupled Lorenz oscillators, the connection between chaos and turbulence, plane-front alloy solidification versus free-surface Benard convection, and the nonlinear stability of spiral flow between rotating cylinders with a small gap. Consideration is given to resonance conditions for forced two-dimensional channel flows, the secondary bifurcation of standing surface waves in rectangular basins, instability in the flow of granular materials, and the supercritical dynamics of baroclinic disturbances

  14. Effect of Applying Molasses and Propionic Acid on Fermentation Quality and Aerobic Stability of Total Mixed Ration Silage Prepared with Whole-plant Corn in Tibet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Chen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of molasses and propionic acid on the fermentation quality and aerobic stability of total mixed ration (TMR silages prepared with whole-plant corn in Tibet. TMR (354 g/kg DM was ensiled with four different treatments: no additive (control, molasses (M, propionic acid (P, and molasses+propionic acid (PM, in laboratory silos (250 mL and fermented for 45 d. Silos were opened and silages were subjected to an aerobic stability test for 12 days, in which chemical and microbiological parameters of TMR silages were measured to determined the aerobic deterioration. After 45 d of ensiling, the four TMR silages were of good quality with low pH value and ammonia/total N (AN, and high lactic acid (LA content and V-scores. M silage showed the highest (p105 cfu/g FM, however, it appeared to be more stable as indicated by a delayed pH value increase. P and PM silages showed fewer yeasts (<105 cfu/g FM (p<0.05 and were more stable than the control and M silages during aerobic exposure. It was concluded that M application increased LA content and improved aerobic stability of TMR silage prepared with whole-plant corn in Tibet. P application inhibited lactic acid production during ensiling, and apparently preserved available sugars which stimulated large increases in lactic acid during aerobic exposure stage, which resulted in greater aerobic stability of TMR silage.

  15. Effects of applying oil-extracted microalgae on the fermentation quality, feed-nutritive value and aerobic stability of ensiled sweet sorghum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Yuan, Xianjun; Li, Junfeng; Dong, Zhihao; Shao, Tao

    2018-02-19

    A laboratory-silo study was conducted to evaluate the fermentation quality, feed-nutritive value and aerobic stability of sweet sorghum silage with or without oil-extracted microalgae supplementation. Sweet sorghum was mixed with four microalgae levels (0%, 1%, 2% and 3% on a dry matter basis; Control, M1, M2 and M3, respectively) and ensiled for 45 d. Further, the four experimental silages were subjected to an aerobic stability test lasting 7 d. All the silages except M3 silage had good fermentative characteristics with low pH and ammonia nitrogen concentrations, and high lactic acid concentrations and favorable microbial parameters. Meanwhile, oil-extracted microalgae supplementation improved the feed-nutritional value of sweet sorghum silage. Fibre (neutral detergent fibre, acid detergent fibre, acid detergent lignin and cellulose) and acid detergent insoluble protein concentrations decreased (P sweet sorghum silage by 43.8 and more than 143%, respectively, and decreased the clostridia spore counts during the stage of air exposure. Sweet sorghum silage produced with 2% oil-extracted microalgae addition was the most suitable for animal use due to the optimal balance of fermentation quality, feed-nutritional value and aerobic stability, which is merit further in vivo studies using grazing ruminants. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  16. Predicting the dental implant stability based on the antiresonance phase of a piezo-based impedance sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paramita Banerjee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The stability of dental implants (DIs in in vivo tests can be determined using noninvasive resonance frequency analysis technique. A low-cost piezo-based sensor has been developed for this purpose which uses a readily available two-terminal piezo element, to which a metal substrate is adhesively glued for attaching the implant. Aim: The attainment of implant stability in dynamic tests using this sensor must be standardized in terms of the major antiresonance (AR in the impedance phase responses using sensor-DI assembly. This will be used to predetermine the dimensions of the glued metal substrate in the sensor design. Materials and Methods: Multiple sensors with varying sensor dimensions were developed. Static and dynamic impedance studies were performed on these and corresponding sensor-implant assemblies. Static tests as well as in vitro tests with the sensor-implant assembly dipped in a standardized dental plaster mixture were performed in controlled laboratory conditions. Results: The probability of acceptance of the hypothesis has been checked using binomial distribution with a significance level of 5%. Statistically observed that for 95% of the cases where the DI becomes stable in dental plaster, both AR phase and AR frequency (ARF return to their corresponding static values. Furthermore, for a piezo element, whose ARF is within 6–6.6 kHz, the sensor yields maximal phase when the length of the metallic strip is 2 cm. Conclusions: Experimental validation supports both claims. Hence, this work can be extended to in vivo DI stability determination and design aspects of the corresponding sensor.

  17. Understanding chemical-potential-related transient pore-pressure response to improve real-time borehole (in)stability predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tare, U.A.; Mody, F.K.; Mese, A.I. [Halliburton Energy Services, Cairo (Egypt)

    2000-11-01

    Experimental studies were conducted to explain the concept of a real-time wellbore (in)stability logging methodology. The role of the chemical potential of drilling fluids on transient pore pressure and time-dependent rock property alterations of shale formations was examined by providing details about a pore pressure transmission (PPT) test. The PPT experiments exposed formation (shale) cores under simulated downhole conditions to various salt solutions and drilling fluids. The main objective was to translate the results of the PPT tests to actual drilling conditions. A 20 per cent w/w calcium chloride solution was exposed to a Pierre II shale under high pressure in the PPT apparatus. The PPT test was used to estimate the impact of a drilling fluid on shale pore pressure. The efficiency of the salt solution/shale system was also estimated. Estimates of the dynamic rock properties were made based on the obtained acoustic data. It was determined that in order to accurately model time-dependent wellbore (in)stability in the field, it is important to calibrate representative shale core response to drilling fluids under realistic in-situ conditions. The 20 per cent w/w calcium chloride solution showed very low membrane efficiency of 4.45 per cent. It was concluded that changes in the shale dynamic rock properties as a function of test fluid exposure can be obtained from the simultaneous acquisition of sonic compression and shear wave velocity data. 12 refs., 5 figs.

  18. Towards the prediction of multiple necking during dynamic extension of round bar: linear stability approach versus finite element calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maï, S El; Petit, J; Mercier, S; Molinari, A

    2014-01-01

    The fragmentation of structures subject to dynamic conditions is a matter of interest for civil industries as well as for Defence institutions. Dynamic expansions of structures, such as cylinders or rings, have been performed to obtain crucial information on fragment distributions. Many authors have proposed to capture by FEA the experimental distribution of fragment size by introducing in the FE model a perturbation. Stability and bifurcation analyses have also been proposed to describe the evolution of the perturbation growth rate. In the proposed contribution, the multiple necking of a round bar in dynamic tensile loading is analysed by the FE method. A perturbation on the initial flow stress is introduced in the numerical model to trigger instabilities. The onset time and the dominant mode of necking have been characterized precisely and showed power law evolutions, with the loading velocities and moderately with the amplitudes and the cell sizes of the perturbations. In the second part of the paper, the development of linear stability analysis and the use of salient criteria in terms of the growth rate of perturbations enabled comparisons with the numerical results. A good correlation in terms of onset time of instabilities and of number of necks is shown.

  19. Stability and predictive utility, over 3 years, of the illness beliefs of individuals recently diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skinner, Timothy C.; Khunti, K.; Carey, M. E.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To determine the stability of beliefs of patients with Type 2 diabetes about their diabetes over 3 years, following diagnosis. Methods: Data were collected as part of a multicentre cluster randomized controlled trial of a 6-h self-management programme, across 207 general practices in the UK...... and Depression Scale) and diabetes distress (Problem Areas in Diabetes scale). Illness beliefs were assessed using the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire-Revised and the Diabetes Illness Representations Questionnaire scales. Results: At 3-year follow-up, all post-intervention differences in illness beliefs......-up, and the intervention group reported decreased responsibility for diabetes outcomes during the follow-up. After controlling for 4-month levels of distress and depression, the perceived impact of diabetes at 4 months remained a significant predictor of distress and depression at 3-year follow-up. Conclusions: Peoples...

  20. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baars, Erik W; van der Hart, Onno; Nijenhuis, Ellert R S; Chu, James A; Glas, Gerrit; Draijer, Nel

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID). We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex PTSD therapists), and in the second round we surveyed a subset of 22 of the 42 therapists (13 DID and 9 complex PTSD therapists). First, we drew on therapists' knowledge of prognostic factors for stabilization-oriented treatment of complex PTSD and DID. Second, therapists prioritized a list of prognostic factors by estimating the size of each variable's prognostic effect; we clustered these factors according to content and named the clusters. Next, concept mapping methodology and statistical analyses (including principal components analyses) were used to transform individual judgments into weighted group judgments for clusters of items. A prognostic model, based on consensually determined estimates of effect sizes, of 8 clusters containing 51 factors for both complex PTSD and DID was formed. It includes the clusters lack of motivation, lack of healthy relationships, lack of healthy therapeutic relationships, lack of other internal and external resources, serious Axis I comorbidity, serious Axis II comorbidity, poor attachment, and self-destruction. In addition, a set of 5 DID-specific items was constructed. The model is supportive of the current phase-oriented treatment model, emphasizing the strengthening of the therapeutic relationship and the patient's resources in the initial stabilization phase. Further research is needed to test the model's statistical and clinical validity.

  1. An analytical model for the prediction of the dynamic response of premixed flames stabilized on a heat-conducting perforated plate

    KAUST Repository

    Kedia, Kushal S.

    2013-01-01

    The dynamic response of a premixed flame stabilized on a heat-conducting perforated plate depends critically on their coupled thermal interaction. The objective of this paper is to develop an analytical model to capture this coupling. The model predicts the mean flame base standoff distance; the flame base area, curvature and speed; and the burner plate temperature given the operating conditions; the mean velocity, temperature and equivalence ratio of the reactants; thermal conductivity and the perforation ratio of the burner. This coupled model is combined with our flame transfer function (FTF) model to predict the dynamic response of the flame to velocity perturbations. We show that modeling the thermal coupling between the flame and the burner, while accounting for the two-dimensionality of the former, is critical to predicting the dynamic response characteristics such as the overshoot in the gain curve (resonant condition) and the phase delay. Good agreement with the numerical and experimental results is demonstrated over a range of conditions. © 2012 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. General predictive model of friction behavior regimes for metal contacts based on the formation stability and evolution of nanocrystalline surface films.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Argibay, Nicolas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Cheng, Shengfeng [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Sawyer, W. G. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); Michael, Joseph R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Chandross, Michael E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The prediction of macro-scale friction and wear behavior based on first principles and material properties has remained an elusive but highly desirable target for tribologists and material scientists alike. Stochastic processes (e.g. wear), statistically described parameters (e.g. surface topography) and their evolution tend to defeat attempts to establish practical general correlations between fundamental nanoscale processes and macro-scale behaviors. We present a model based on microstructural stability and evolution for the prediction of metal friction regimes, founded on recently established microstructural deformation mechanisms of nanocrystalline metals, that relies exclusively on material properties and contact stress models. We show through complementary experimental and simulation results that this model overcomes longstanding practical challenges and successfully makes accurate and consistent predictions of friction transitions for a wide range of contact conditions. This framework not only challenges the assumptions of conventional causal relationships between hardness and friction, and between friction and wear, but also suggests a pathway for the design of higher performance metal alloys.

  3. The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

    2004-01-01

    A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

  4. From basic physics to mechanisms of toxicity: the ``liquid drop'' approach applied to develop predictive classification models for toxicity of metal oxide nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizochenko, Natalia; Rasulev, Bakhtiyor; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Kuz'min, Victor; Puzyn, Tomasz; Leszczynski, Jerzy

    2014-10-01

    Many metal oxide nanoparticles are able to cause persistent stress to live organisms, including humans, when discharged to the environment. To understand the mechanism of metal oxide nanoparticles' toxicity and reduce the number of experiments, the development of predictive toxicity models is important. In this study, performed on a series of nanoparticles, the comparative quantitative-structure activity relationship (nano-QSAR) analyses of their toxicity towards E. coli and HaCaT cells were established. A new approach for representation of nanoparticles' structure is presented. For description of the supramolecular structure of nanoparticles the ``liquid drop'' model was applied. It is expected that a novel, proposed approach could be of general use for predictions related to nanomaterials. In addition, in our study fragmental simplex descriptors and several ligand-metal binding characteristics were calculated. The developed nano-QSAR models were validated and reliably predict the toxicity of all studied metal oxide nanoparticles. Based on the comparative analysis of contributed properties in both models the LDM-based descriptors were revealed to have an almost similar level of contribution to toxicity in both cases, while other parameters (van der Waals interactions, electronegativity and metal-ligand binding characteristics) have unequal contribution levels. In addition, the models developed here suggest different mechanisms of nanotoxicity for these two types of cells.Many metal oxide nanoparticles are able to cause persistent stress to live organisms, including humans, when discharged to the environment. To understand the mechanism of metal oxide nanoparticles' toxicity and reduce the number of experiments, the development of predictive toxicity models is important. In this study, performed on a series of nanoparticles, the comparative quantitative-structure activity relationship (nano-QSAR) analyses of their toxicity towards E. coli and HaCaT cells were

  5. Light backscatter fiber optic sensor: a new tool for predicting the stability of pork emulsions containing antioxidative potato protein hydrolysate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Gema; Xiong, Youling L; Payne, Fred; Castillo, Manuel

    2015-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether light backscatter response from fresh pork meat emulsions is correlated to final product stability indices. A specially designed fiber optic measurement system was used in combination with a miniature fiber optic spectrometer to determine the intensity of light backscatter within the wavelength range 300-1100 nm (UV/VIS/NIR) at different radial distances (2, 2.5 and 3mm) with respect to the light source in pork meat emulsions with two fat levels (15%, 30%) and two levels (0, 2.5%) of the natural antioxidant hydrolyzed potato protein (HPP). Textural parameters (hardness, deformability, cohesiveness and breaking force), cooking loss, TBARS (1, 2, 3, and 7 days of storage at 4 °C) and CIELAB color coordinates of cooked emulsions were measured. The light backscatter was directly correlated with cooking losses, color, breaking force and TBARS. The optical configuration proposed would compensate for the emulsion heterogeneity, maximizing the existing correlation between the optical signal and the emulsion quality metrics.

  6. Improvement in post test accident analysis results prediction for the test no. 2 in PSB test facility by applying UMAE methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubey, S.K.; Petruzzi, A.; Giannotti, W.; D'Auria, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper mainly deals with the improvement in the post test accident analysis results prediction for the test no. 2, 'Total loss of feed water with failure of HPIS pumps and operator actions on primary and secondary circuit depressurization', carried-out on PSB integral test facility in May 2005. This is one the most complicated test conducted in PSB test facility. The prime objective of this test is to provide support for the verification of the accident management strategies for NPPs and also to verify the correctness of some safety systems operating only during accident. The objective of this analysis is to assess the capability to reproduce the phenomena occurring during the selected tests and to quantify the accuracy of the code calculation qualitatively and quantitatively for the best estimate code Relap5/mod3.3 by systematically applying all the procedures lead by Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation (UMAE), developed at University of Pisa. In order to achieve these objectives test facility nodalisation qualification for both 'steady state level' and 'on transient level' are demonstrated. For the 'steady state level' qualification compliance to acceptance criteria established in UMAE has been checked for geometrical details and thermal hydraulic parameters. The following steps have been performed for evaluation of qualitative qualification of 'on transient level': visual comparisons between experimental and calculated relevant parameters time trends; list of comparison between experimental and code calculation resulting time sequence of significant events; identification/verification of CSNI phenomena validation matrix; use of the Phenomenological Windows (PhW), identification of Key Phenomena and Relevant Thermal-hydraulic Aspects (RTA). A successful application of the qualitative process constitutes a prerequisite to the application of the quantitative analysis. For quantitative accuracy of code prediction Fast Fourier Transform Based

  7. Applying a Dynamic Stomatal Optimization to Predict Shifts in the Functional Composition of Tropical Forests Under Increased Drought And CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, M. K.; Detto, M.; Pacala, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    The accurate prediction of tropical forest carbon fluxes is key to forecasting global climate, but forest responses to projected increases in CO2 and drought are highly uncertain. Here we present a dynamic optimization that derives the trajectory of stomatal conductance (gs) during drought, a key source of model uncertainty, from plant and soil water relations and the carbon economy of the plant hydraulic system. This optimization scheme is novel in two ways. First, by accounting for the ability of capacitance (i.e., the release of water from plant storage tissue; C) to buffer evaporative water loss and maintain gs during drought, this optimization captures both drought tolerant and avoidant hydraulic strategies. Second, by determining the optimal trajectory of plant and soil water potentials, this optimization quantifies species' impacts on the water available to competing plants. These advances allowed us to apply this optimization across the range of physiology trait values observed in tropical species to evaluate shifts in the competitively optimal trait values, or evolutionarily stable hydraulic strategy (ESS), under increased drought and CO2. Increasing the length of the dry season shifted the ESS towards more drought tolerant, rather than avoidant, trait values, and these shifts were larger for longer individual drought periods (i.e., more consecutive days without rainfall), even if the total time spent in drought was the same. Concurrently doubling the CO2 level reduced the magnitude of these shifts and slightly favored drought avoidant strategies under wet conditions. Overall, these analyses predicted that short, frequent droughts would allow elevated CO2 to shift the functional composition in tropical forests towards more drought avoidant species, while infrequent but long drought periods would shift the ESS to more drought tolerant trait values, despite increased CO2. Overall, these analyses quantified the impact of physiology traits on plant performance

  8. Experimental Confirmation of Nonlinear-Model- Predictive Control Applied Offline to a Permanent Magnet Linear Generator for Ocean-Wave Energy Conversion

    KAUST Repository

    Tom, Nathan; Yeung, Ronald W.

    2015-01-01

    To further maximize power absorption in both regular and irregular ocean wave environments, nonlinear-model-predictive control (NMPC) was applied to a model-scale point absorber developed at the University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. The NMPC strategy requires a power-takeoff (PTO) unit that could be turned on and off, as the generator would be inactive for up to 60% of the wave period. To confirm the effectiveness of this NMPC strategy, an in-house-designed permanent magnet linear generator (PMLG) was chosen as the PTO. The time-varying performance of the PMLG was first characterized by dry-bench tests, using mechanical relays to control the electromagnetic conversion process. The on/off sequencing of the PMLG was tested under regular and irregular wave excitation to validate NMPC simulations using control inputs obtained from running the choice optimizer offline. Experimental results indicate that successful implementation was achieved and absorbed power using NMPC was up to 50% greater than the passive system, which utilized no controller. Previous investigations into MPC applied to wave energy converters have lacked the experimental results to confirm the reported gains in power absorption. However, after considering the PMLG mechanical-to-electrical conversion efficiency, the electrical power output was not consistently maximized. To improve output power, a mathematical relation between the efficiency and damping magnitude of the PMLG was inserted in the system model to maximize the electrical power output through continued use of NMPC which helps separate this work from previous investigators. Of significance, results from latter simulations provided a damping time series that was active over a larger portion of the wave period requiring the actuation of the applied electrical load, rather than on/off control.

  9. Prediction of Gibbs energies of formation and stability constants of some secondary uranium minerals containing the uranyl group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genderen, A.C.G. van; Weijden, C.H. van der

    1984-01-01

    For a group of minerals containing a common anion there exists a linear relationship between two parameters called ΔO and ΔF.ΔO is defined as the difference between the Gibbs energy of formation of a solid oxide and the Gibbs energy of formation of its aqueous cation, while ΔF is defined as the Gibbs energy of reaction of the formation of a mineral from the constituting oxide(s) and the acid. Using the Gibbs energies of formation of a number of known minerals the corresponding ΔO's and ΔF's were calculated and with the resulting regression equation it is possible to predict values for the Gibbs energies of formation of other minerals containing the same anion. This was done for 29 minerals containing the uranyl-ion together with phosphate, vanadate, arsenate or carbonate. (orig.)

  10. Ex vivo biomechanical evaluation of pigeon (Columba livia) cadaver intact humeri and ostectomized humeri stabilized with caudally applied titanium locking plate or stainless steel nonlocking plate constructs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrow, Brett G; Biskup, Jeffrey J; Weigel, Joseph P; Jones, Michael P; Xie, Xie; Liaw, Peter K; Tharpe, Josh L; Sharma, Aashish; Penumadu, Dayakar

    2017-05-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate mechanical properties of pigeon (Columba livia) cadaver intact humeri versus ostectomized humeri stabilized with a locking or nonlocking plate. SAMPLE 30 humeri from pigeon cadavers. PROCEDURES Specimens were allocated into 3 groups and tested in bending and torsion. Results for intact pigeon humeri were compared with results for ostectomized humeri repaired with a titanium 1.6-mm screw locking plate or a stainless steel 1.5-mm dynamic compression plate; the ostectomized humeri mimicked a fracture in a thin cortical bone. Locking plates were secured with locking screws (2 bicortical and 4 monocortical), and nonlocking plates were secured with bicortical nonlocking screws. Constructs were cyclically tested nondestructively in 4-point bending and then tested to failure in bending. A second set of constructs were cyclically tested non-destructively and then to failure in torsion. Stiffness, strength, and strain energy of each construct were compared. RESULTS Intact specimens were stiffer and stronger than the repair groups for all testing methods, except for nonlocking constructs, which were significantly stiffer than intact specimens under cyclic bending. Intact bones had significantly higher strain energies than locking plates in both bending and torsion. Locking and nonlocking plates were of equal strength and strain energy, but not stiffness, in bending and were of equal strength, stiffness, and strain energy in torsion. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results for this study suggested that increased torsional strength may be needed before bone plate repair can be considered as the sole fixation method for avian species.

  11. Surface energy effects on the stability of anatase and rutile nanocrystals: A predictive diagram for Nb_2O_5-doped-TiO_2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Andre Luiz da; Hotza, Dachamir; Castro, Ricardo H.R.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Anatase-rutile phase transition diagram was built for nano Nb_2O_5-doped-TiO_2. • Nb_2O_5-doping postpones the anatase-to-rutile transition. • The stability crossover for TiO_2 was 17.3 nm, for 2 mol% Nb_2O_5-doped-TiO_2 ∼30 nm. • The surface energy for Nb_2O_5-doped-TiO_2 decreases systematically with Nb concentration. - Abstract: Titanium dioxide nanoparticles are widely used for photocatalysis, and the relative fraction of titanium dioxide polymorph, i.e. anatase, rutile, or brookite, significantly affects the final performance. Even though conventional phase diagrams indicate a higher stability for the rutile polymorph, it is well established that nanosizes benefit the anatase phase due to its smaller surface energy. However, doping elements are expected to change this behavior, once changes in both surface and bulk energies may occur. Nb_2O_5 is commonly added to TiO_2 to allow property control. However, the effect of niobium on the relative stability of anatase and rutile phases is not well understood from the thermodynamic point of view. The objective of this work was to build a new predictive nanoscale phase diagram for Nb_2O_5-doped TiO_2. Water adsorption microcalorimetry and high temperature oxide melt solution were used to obtain the surface and bulk enthalpies. The phase diagram obtained shows the stable titania polymorph as a function of the composition and size.

  12. Prediction of the stability of BWR reactors during the start-up process; Prediccion de la estabilidad de reactores BWR durante el proceso de arranque

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz E, J.A.; Castillo D, R. [ININ, Km. 36.5 Carretera Mexico-Toluca, 52045 Salazar, Estado de Mexico (Mexico); Blazquez M, J.B. [Centro de Investigaciones Energetics, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas, Av Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2004-07-01

    The Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) are susceptible of uncertainties of power when they are operated to low flows of coolant (W) and high powers (P), being presented this situation mainly in the start-up process. The start-up process could be made but sure if the operator knew the value of the stability index Decay reason (Dr) before going up power and therefore to guarantee the stability. The power and the flow are constantly measures, the index Dr could also be considered its value in real time. The index Dr depends on the power, flow and many other values, such as, the distribution of the flow axial and radial neutronic, the temperature of the feeding water, the fraction of holes and other thermohydraulic and nuclear parameters. A simple relationship of Dr is derived leaving of the pattern reduced of March-Leuba, where three independent variables are had that are the power, the flow and a parameter that it contains the rest of the phenomenology, that is to say all the other quantities that affect the value of Dr. This relationship developed work presently and verified its prediction with data of start-up of commercial reactors could be used for the design of a practical procedure practice of start-up, what would support to the operator to prevent this type of events of uncertainty. (Author)

  13. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  14. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  15. Bioengineering applied to erosion and stability control in the North Apennines (Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy): a check about critical aspects of the works.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selli, Lavinia; Cavazza, Claudio; Pavanelli, Donatella

    2013-04-01

    Because of its geological structure, in the Emilia-Romagna Region over 32,000 landslides have been identified. Several works have been made in order to control mass movement's dynamics and to secure of Reno and Lamone Mountain Basin Rivers, the road network and near by villages and towns. Most of the control works dealt with bioengineering practices: palisades piles, geotextiles, seedings, surface flow control works, dikes within main drainage ditches. In order to check about critical aspects related to the use of these techniques in the Apennines, a survey in this basins was designed with specific interest in the several kinds of works realised, in which plant species were mostly used and in the factors that affected the success or failure of the works. Territory encompasses steep slopes covered with woods to low reliefs covered with grasslands. It is characterized by prevailing clays, inducing instability, and arenaceous lithology with impermeable soils; drainage density is quite high and hillsides suffer extensive and severe erosion and slope stability problems. Chestnut woods mainly represent land use at higher altitudes, while coppice, pastures and crops are present on milder hillsides. The remaining part of the basin is covered by vineyards, orchards, ponds and urban areas, which are basically located in the valley floor. Precipitation events mainly consist of rainfall ranging between 950-1015 mm per year; few snowfalls occur during winter and a long dry season lasts from June until September. We have analyzed 187 works designed mainly for the consolidation of slope instabilities through a widespread enhancement of the vegetation cover. The surveyed works are classified as a function of their building features: it can be seen that cribwalls and palisades are by far the most common types, being the 24% and the 34% respectively of the works. As far as the most adopted plant species, they were silver willow (Salix alba), Spanish Broom (Spartium Junceum) and

  16. Stability and amplitude ranges of two dimensional non-linear oscillations with periodical Hamiltonian applied to betatron oscillations in circular particle accelerators: Part 1 and Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagedorn, R

    1957-03-07

    A mechanical system of two degrees of freedom is considered which can be described by a system of canonical differential equations. The Hamiltonian is assumed to be explicitly time-dependent with period 2. The aim is to bring this system by a sequence of canonical and periodical transformations into a form where the new Hamiltonian is constant and as simple as possible. The general theory is then brought to a stage where it becomes immediately applicable to given particular cases, particularly to circular particle accelerators. More general results are given on exciting strengths of different subresonance lines of equal order, on symmetry relations and on the one-dimensional case. An example is also given where the theory is overstressed and its predictions become wrong.

  17. International Standards on stability of digital prints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelstein, Peter Z

    2010-01-01

    The International Standards Organization (ISO) is a worldwide recognized standardizing body which has responsibility for standards on permanence of digital prints. This paper is an update on the progress made to date by ISO in writing test methods in this area. Three technologies are involved, namely ink jet, dye diffusion thermal transfer (dye-sublimation) and electrophotography. Two types of test methods are possible, namely comparative tests and predictive tests. To date a comparative test on water fastness has been published and final balloting is underway on a comparative test on humidity fastness. Predictive tests are being finalized on thermal stability and pollution susceptibility. The test method on thermal stability is intended to predict the print life during normal aging. One of the testing concerns is that some prints do not show significant image change in practical testing times. The test method on pollution susceptibility only deals with ozone and assumes that the reciprocity law applies. This law assumes that a long time under a low pollutant concentration is equivalent to a short time under the high concentration used in the test procedure. Longer term studies include a predictive test for light stability and the preparation of a material specification. The latter requires a decision about the proper colour target to be used and what constitutes an unacceptable colour change. Moreover, a specification which gives a predictive life is very dependent upon the conditions the print encounters and will only apply to specific levels of temperature, ozone and light.

  18. Predicting the effect of ionising radiation on biological populations: testing of a non-linear Leslie model applied to a small mammal population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    The present work describes the application of a non-linear Leslie model for predicting the effects of ionising radiation on wild populations. The model assumes that, for protracted chronic irradiation, the effect-dose relationship is linear. In particular, the effects of radiation are modelled by relating the increase in the mortality rates of the individuals to the dose rates through a proportionality factor C. The model was tested using independent data and information from a series of experiments that were aimed at assessing the response to radiation of wild populations of meadow voles and whose results were described in the international literature. The comparison of the model results with the data selected from the above mentioned experiments showed that the model overestimated the detrimental effects of radiation on the size of irradiated populations when the values of C were within the range derived from the median lethal dose (L 50 ) for small mammals. The described non-linear model suggests that the non-expressed biotic potential of the species whose growth is limited by processes of environmental resistance, such as the competition among the individuals of the same or of different species for the exploitation of the available resources, can be a factor that determines a more effective response of population to the radiation effects. -- Highlights: • A model to assess the radiation effects on wild population is described. • The model is based on non-linear Leslie matrix. • The model is applied to small mammals living in an irradiated meadow. • Model output is conservative if effect-dose factor estimated from L 50 is used. • Systemic response to stress of populations in competitive conditions may be more effective

  19. Design of Experiment as a powerful tool when applying Finite Element Method: a case study on prediction of hot rolling process parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giancarlo G. Bordonaro

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ultimate goal in hot roll pass design is to manufacture a rolled product with the required dimensional accuracy, defect free surface, and mechanical properties. The proper selection of process parameters is crucial to meet increasing requirements for desired quality and geometrical properties of rolled products. Due to the complex behavior of the metal flow at high temperatures and the severe plastic deformations in shape rolling, most efforts that have been made so far only rely upon the practical experience gained by operators. The large number of variables involved and the difficulty in investigating the process characteristics, make the use of finite element (FE tools an effective and attractive opportunity towards a thorough understanding of the rolling process. In this work, Design of Experiment (DOE is proposed as a powerful and viable method for the prediction of rolling process parameters while reducing the computational effort. Nonlinear 3D FE models of the hot rolling process are developed for a large set of complex cross-section shapes and validated against experimental evidences provided by real plant products at each stage of the deformation sequence. Based on the accuracy of the validated FE models, DOE is applied to investigate the flat rolling process under a series of many parameters and scenarios. Effects of main roll forming variables are analyzed on material flow behavior and geometrical features of a rolled product. The selected DOE factors are the workpiece temperature, diameter size, diameter reduction (draught, and rolls angular velocity. The selected DOE responses are workpiece spread, effective stresses, contact stresses, and rolls reaction loads. Eventually, the application of Pareto optimality (a Multi-Criteria Decision Making method allows to detect an optimal combination of design factors which respect desired target requirements for the responses.

  20. Synergetic Use of Principal Component Analysis Applied to Normed Physicochemical Measurements and GC × GC-MS to Reveal the Stabilization Effect of Selected Essential Oils on Heated Rapeseed Oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, Lilia; Cordella, Christophe B Y; Rutledge, Douglas N; Lefèvre, Fanny; Watiez, Mickaël; Breton, Sylvie; Sassiat, Patrick; Thiebaut, Didier; Vial, Jérôme

    2017-06-01

    Lipid oxidation leads to the formation of volatile compounds and very often to off-flavors. In the case of the heating of rapeseed oil, unpleasant odors, characterized as a fishy odor, are emitted. In this study, 2 different essential oils (coriander and nutmeg essential oils) were added to refined rapeseed oil as odor masking agents. The aim of this work was to determine a potential antioxidant effect of these essential oils on the thermal stability of rapeseed oil subject to heating cycles between room temperature and 180 °C. For this purpose, normed determinations of different parameters (peroxide value, anisidine value, and the content of total polar compounds, free fatty acids and tocopherols) were carried out to examine the differences between pure and degraded oil. No significant difference was observed between pure rapeseed oil and rapeseed oil with essential oils for each parameter separately. However, a stabilizing effect of the essential oils, with a higher effect for the nutmeg essential oil was highlighted by principal component analysis applied on physicochemical dataset. Moreover, the analysis of the volatile compounds performed by GC × GC showed a substantial loss of the volatile compounds of the essential oils from the first heating cycle. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

  1. Modeling precipitation thermodynamics and kinetics in type 316 austenitic stainless steels with varying composition as an initial step toward predicting phase stability during irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Jae-Hyeok, E-mail: jhshim@kist.re.kr [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); High Temperature Energy Materials Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul 136-791 (Korea, Republic of); Povoden-Karadeniz, Erwin [Christian Doppler Laboratory for Early Stages of Precipitation, Vienna University of Technology, A-1040 Vienna (Austria); Kozeschnik, Ernst [Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, A-1040 Vienna (Austria); Wirth, Brian D. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2015-07-15

    Highlights: • We model the precipitation kinetics in irradiated 316 austenitic stainless steels. • Radiation-induced phases are predicted to form at over 10 dpa segregation conditions. • The Si content is the most critical for the formation of radiation-induced phases. - Abstract: The long-term evolution of precipitates in type 316 austenitic stainless steels at 400 °C has been simulated using a numerical model based on classical nucleation theory and the thermodynamic extremum principle. Particular attention has been paid to the precipitation of radiation-induced phases such as γ′ and G phases. In addition to the original compositions, the compositions for radiation-induced segregation at a dose level of 5, 10 or 20 dpa have been used in the simulation. In a 316 austenitic stainless steel, γ′ appears as the main precipitate with a small amount of G phase forming at 10 and 20 dpa. On the other hand, G phase becomes relatively dominant over γ′ at the same dose levels in a Ti-stabilized 316 austenitic stainless steel, which tends to suppress the formation of γ′. Among the segregated alloying elements, the concentration of Si seems to be the most critical for the formation of radiation-induced phases. An increase in dislocation density as well as increased diffusivity of Mn and Si significantly enhances the precipitation kinetics of the radiation-induced phases within this model.

  2. Unbalanced Stability: Applying Lessons from American Cities in Stability Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-19

    teenagers congregating on street corners, public solicitation for prostitution, begging, public drinking, verbal harassment of women on the street, and...United Nations Security Council, “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1590 (2005).” http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/ 1590 (2005...Security Council. “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1590 (2005).” United Nations. http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/ 1590

  3. Stable Versus Unstable Grade II High Ankle Sprains: A Prospective Study Predicting the Need for Surgical Stabilization and Time to Return to Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, James D; Bamford, Richard; Petrie, Aviva; McCollum, Graham A

    2016-04-01

    II injuries and may be used to identify which athletes may benefit from early arthroscopic assessment and stabilization. They may also be important in predicting the time frame for athletes' expected return to play. Level II, prospective comparative study. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. On Front Slope Stability of Berm Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    2013-01-01

    The short communication presents application of the conventional Van der Meer stability formula for low-crested breakwaters for the prediction of front slope erosion of statically stable berm breakwaters with relatively high berms. The method is verified (Burcharth, 2008) by comparison...... with the reshaping of a large Norwegian breakwater exposed to the North Sea waves. As a motivation for applying the Van der Meer formula a discussion of design parameters related to berm breakwater stability formulae is given. Comparisons of front erosion predicted by the use of the Van der Meer formula with model...... test results including tests presented in Sigurdarson and Van der Meer (2011) are discussed. A proposal is presented for performance of new model tests with the purpose of developing more accurate formulae for the prediction of front slope erosion as a function of front slope, relative berm height...

  5. Band alignment and charge transfer predictions of ZnO/ZnX (X = S, Se or Te) interfaces applied to solar cells: a PBE+U theoretical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Efracio Mamani; Gouvea, Rogério Almeida; Piotrowski, Maurício Jeomar; Moreira, Mário Lucio

    2018-02-14

    The engineering of semiconductor materials for the development of solar cells is of great importance today. Two topics are considered to be of critical importance for the efficiency of Grätzel-type solar cells, the efficiency of charge separation and the efficiency of charge carrier transfer. Thus, one research focus is the combination of semiconductor materials with the aim of reducing charge recombination, which occurs by spatial charge separation. From an experimental point of view, the combining of materials can be achieved by decorating a core with a shell of another material resulting in a core-shell system, which allows control of the desired photoelectronic properties. In this context, a computational simulation is mandatory for the atomistic understanding of possible semiconductor combinations and for the prediction of their properties. Considering the construction of ZnO/ZnX (X = S, Se or Te) interfaces, we seek to investigate the electronic influence of the shell (ZnX) on the core (ZnO) and, consequently, find out which of the interfaces would present the appropriate properties for (Grätzel-type) solar cell applications. To perform this study, we have employed density functional theory (DFT) calculations, considering the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) functional. However, it is well-known that plain DFT fails to describe strong electronic correlated materials where, in general, an underestimation of the band gap is obtained. Thus, to obtain the correct description of the electronic properties, a Hubbard correction was employed, i.e. PBE+U calculations. The PBE+U methodology provided the correct electronic structure properties for bulk ZnO in good agreement with experimental values (99.4%). The ZnO/ZnX interfaces were built and were composed of six ZnO layers and two ZnX layers, which represents the decoration process. The core-shell band gap was 2.2 eV for ZnO/ZnS, ∼1.71 eV for ZnO/ZnSe and ∼0.95 eV for ZnO/ZnTe, which also exhibited a type-II band

  6. Numerical Computation of Detonation Stability

    KAUST Repository

    Kabanov, Dmitry

    2018-06-03

    Detonation is a supersonic mode of combustion that is modeled by a system of conservation laws of compressible fluid mechanics coupled with the equations describing thermodynamic and chemical properties of the fluid. Mathematically, these governing equations admit steady-state travelling-wave solutions consisting of a leading shock wave followed by a reaction zone. However, such solutions are often unstable to perturbations and rarely observed in laboratory experiments. The goal of this work is to study the stability of travelling-wave solutions of detonation models by the following novel approach. We linearize the governing equations about a base travelling-wave solution and solve the resultant linearized problem using high-order numerical methods. The results of these computations are postprocessed using dynamic mode decomposition to extract growth rates and frequencies of the perturbations and predict stability of travelling-wave solutions to infinitesimal perturbations. We apply this approach to two models based on the reactive Euler equations for perfect gases. For the first model with a one-step reaction mechanism, we find agreement of our results with the results of normal-mode analysis. For the second model with a two-step mechanism, we find that both types of admissible travelling-wave solutions exhibit the same stability spectra. Then we investigate the Fickett’s detonation analogue coupled with a particular reaction-rate expression. In addition to the linear stability analysis of this model, we demonstrate that it exhibits rich nonlinear dynamics with multiple bifurcations and chaotic behavior.

  7. Shell stabilization of super- and hyperheavy nuclei without magic gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, M.; Nazarewicz, W.; Oak Ridge National Lab., TN; Warsaw Univ.; Reinhard, P.G.; Oak Ridge National Lab., TN

    2001-05-01

    Quantum stabilization of superheavy elements is quantified in terms of the shell-correction energy. We compute the shell correction using self-consistent nuclear models: the non-relativistic Skyrme-Hartree-Fock approach and the relativistic mean-field model, for a number of parametrizations. All the forces applied predict a broad valley of shell stabilization around Z = 120 and N = 172-184. We also predict two broad regions of shell stabilization in hyperheavy elements with N ∼ 258 and N ∼ 308. Due to the large single-particle level density, shell corrections in the superheavy elements differ markedly from those in lighter nuclei. With increasing proton and neutron numbers, the regions of nuclei stabilized by shell effects become poorly localized in particle number, and the familiar pattern of shells separated by magic gaps is basically gone. (orig.)

  8. Single-energy non-contrast hepatic steatosis criteria applied to virtual non-contrast images: is it still highly specific and positively predictive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji-Momenian, S; Parkinson, W; Khati, N; Brindle, K; Earls, J; Zeman, R K

    2018-06-01

    To determine the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of single-energy non-contrast hepatic steatosis criteria on dual-energy virtual non-contrast (VNC) images. Forty-eight computed tomography (CT) examinations, which included single-energy non-contrast (TNC) and contrast-enhanced dual-energy CT angiography (CTA) of the abdomen, were enrolled. VNC images were reconstructed from the CTA. Region of interest (ROI) attenuations were measured in the right and left hepatic lobes, spleen, and aorta on TNC and VNC images. The right and left hepatic lobes were treated as separate samples. Steatosis was diagnosed based on TNC liver attenuation of ≤40 HU or liver attenuation index (LAI) of ≤-10 HU, which are extremely specific and predictive for moderate to severe steatosis. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of VNC images for steatosis were calculated. VNC-TNC deviations were correlated with aortic enhancement and patient water equivalent diameter (PWED). Thirty-two liver ROIs met steatosis criteria based on TNC attenuation; VNC attenuation had sensitivity, specificity, and a positive predictive value of 66.7%, 100%, and 100%, respectively. Twenty-one liver ROIs met steatosis criteria based on TNC LAI. VNC LAI had sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values of 61.9%, 90.7%, and 65%, respectively. Hepatic and splenic VNC-TNC deviations did not correlate with one another (R 2 =0.08), aortic enhancement (R 2 predictive for moderate to severe steatosis on VNC reconstructions from the arterial phase. Hepatic attenuation performs better than LAI criteria. VNC deviations are independent of aortic enhancement and PWED. Copyright © 2018 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Discovery of novel histidine-derived lipo-amino acids: applied in the synthesis of ultra-short antimicrobial peptidomimetics having potent antimicrobial activity, salt resistance and protease stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Mija; Murugan, Ravichandran N; Jacob, Binu; Hyun, Jae-Kyung; Cheong, Chaejoon; Hwang, Eunha; Park, Hyo-Nam; Seo, Ji-Hyung; Srinivasrao, G; Lee, Kyung S; Shin, Song Yub; Bang, Jeong Kyu

    2013-10-01

    Here we report for the first time the synthesis of Histidine (His) derived lipo-amino acids having pendant lipid tails at N(τ)- and N(π)-positions on imidazole group of His and applied it into synthesis of lipo-peptides. The attachment of His-derived lipo-amino acid into the very short inactive cationic peptides endows potent antimicrobial activity against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria without hemolytic activity. Furthermore, our designed His-derived lipo-peptidomimetics (HDLPs) consisting of two or three residues displayed strong anti-MRSA activity and protease stability as well as retained potent antimicrobial activity under high salt concentration. Our results demonstrate that the novel lipo-amino acid is highly flexible to synthesize and carry out the extensive structure-activity relationship (SAR) on lipo-antimicrobial peptidomimetics and represents a unique amenable platform for modifying parameters important for antimicrobial activity. Through this study, we proved that the discovery of His-derived lipo-amino acid and the corresponding HDLPs are an excellent candidate as a lead compound for the development of novel antimicrobial agents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alessandrini, S.; Sperati, S.; Pinson, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    together with a single forecast power value for each future time horizon. A comparison between two different ensemble forecasting models, ECMWF EPS (Ensemble Prediction System in use at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System developed...... ahead forecast horizon. A statistical calibration of the ensemble wind speed members based on the use of past wind speed measurements is explained. The two models are compared using common verification indices and diagrams. The higher horizontal resolution model (COSMO-LEPS) shows slightly better...

  11. Applied physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1980-01-01

    The Physics Division research program that is dedicated primarily to applied research goals involves the interaction of energetic particles with solids. This applied research is carried out in conjunction with the basic research studies from which it evolved

  12. An analytical model for the prediction of the dynamic response of premixed flames stabilized on a heat-conducting perforated plate

    KAUST Repository

    Kedia, Kushal S.; Ghoniem, Ahmed F.

    2013-01-01

    The dynamic response of a premixed flame stabilized on a heat-conducting perforated plate depends critically on their coupled thermal interaction. The objective of this paper is to develop an analytical model to capture this coupling. The model

  13. Phase stability predictions of Cr1−x, Mx)2(Al1−y, Ay)(C1−z, Xz) (M = Ti, Hf, Zr; A = Si, X = B)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang, Lin; Music, Denis; Baben, Moritz to; Schneider, Jochen M

    2014-01-01

    The phase stability of (Cr 1−x , M x ) 2 (Al 1−y , A y )(C 1−z , X z ) (M = Ti, Hf, Zr; A = Si, X = B, space group P6 3 /mmc, prototype Cr 2 AlC) was studied using ab initio calculations. Based on the energy of mixing data as well as the density of states (DOS) analysis, (Cr 1−x , Zr x ) 2 AlC and (Cr 1−x , Hf x ) 2 AlC are predicted to be unstable, whereas (Cr 1−x , Ti x ) 2 AlC, Cr 2 (Al 1−y , Si y )C and Cr 2 Al(C 1−z , B z ) are predicted to be stable or metastable. The density of states analysis reveals that small differences in the position of the Fermi level alters the phase stability: (Cr 1−x , Zr x ) 2 AlC and (Cr 1−x , Hf x ) 2 AlC are predicted to be unstable or metastable as the Fermi level lies at a peak position. While the Cr dominated DOS for (Cr 1−x , Ti x ) 2 AlC plateaus at the Fermi level indicating stability. Implications of these results for the vapour phase condensation of self-healing Cr 2 AlC based materials are discussed. (paper)

  14. Cable Stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bottura, L [European Organization for Nuclear Research, Geneva (Switzerland)

    2014-07-01

    Superconductor stability is at the core of the design of any successful cable and magnet application. This chapter reviews the initial understanding of the stability mechanism, and reviews matters of importance for stability such as the nature and magnitude of the perturbation spectrum and the cooling mechanisms. Various stability strategies are studied, providing criteria that depend on the desired design and operating conditions.

  15. Prediction of net hepatic release of glucose using a “hybrid” mechanistic model in ruminants applied to positive energy balance

    OpenAIRE

    Bahloul, Lahlou; Ortigues, Isabelle; Vernet, Jean; Lapierre, Helène; Noziere, Pierre; Sauvant, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Ruminants depend on hepatic gluconeogenesis to meet most of their metabolic demand for glucose which relies on availability of precursors from diet supply and animal requirements (Loncke et al., 2010). Several mechanistic models of the metabolic fate of nutrients across the liver exist that have been parameterized for dairy cows. They cannot be directly used to predict hepatic gluconeogenesis in all types of ruminants in different physiological status. A hybrid mechanistic model of nutrient f...

  16. Setting the vision: applied patient-reported outcomes and smart, connected digital healthcare systems to improve patient-centered outcomes prediction in critical illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wysham, Nicholas G; Abernethy, Amy P; Cox, Christopher E

    2014-10-01

    Prediction models in critical illness are generally limited to short-term mortality and uncommonly include patient-centered outcomes. Current outcome prediction tools are also insensitive to individual context or evolution in healthcare practice, potentially limiting their value over time. Improved prognostication of patient-centered outcomes in critical illness could enhance decision-making quality in the ICU. Patient-reported outcomes have emerged as precise methodological measures of patient-centered variables and have been successfully employed using diverse platforms and technologies, enhancing the value of research in critical illness survivorship and in direct patient care. The learning health system is an emerging ideal characterized by integration of multiple data sources into a smart and interconnected health information technology infrastructure with the goal of rapidly optimizing patient care. We propose a vision of a smart, interconnected learning health system with integrated electronic patient-reported outcomes to optimize patient-centered care, including critical care outcome prediction. A learning health system infrastructure integrating electronic patient-reported outcomes may aid in the management of critical illness-associated conditions and yield tools to improve prognostication of patient-centered outcomes in critical illness.

  17. Applying a Multi-Model Ensemble Method for Long-Term Runoff Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios for the Yellow River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linus Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Given the substantial impacts that are expected due to climate change, it is crucial that accurate rainfall–runoff results are provided for various decision-making purposes. However, these modeling results often generate uncertainty or bias due to the imperfect character of individual models. In this paper, a genetic algorithm together with a Bayesian model averaging method are employed to provide a multi-model ensemble (MME and combined runoff prediction under climate change scenarios produced from eight rainfall–runoff models for the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the multi-model ensemble method, especially the genetic algorithm method, can produce more reliable predictions than the other considered rainfall–runoff models. These results show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty and thus improve the accuracy for future projections using different models because an MME approach evens out the bias involved in the individual model. For the study area, the final combined predictions reveal that less runoff is expected under most climatic scenarios, which will threaten water security of the basin.

  18. Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Meicun; Cai Qi

    2011-01-01

    The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

  19. Measurement of Resistive Wall Mode stability in rotating high beta plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimerdes, H.; Bialek, J.; Garofalo, A.M.; Navratil, G.A.; Chance, M.S.; Menard, J.E.; Okabayashi, M.; Takahashi, H.; Chu, M.S.; Gohil, P.; Jackson, G.L.; Jensen, T.H.; La Haye, R.J.; Scoville, J.T.; Strait, E.J.; Jayakumar, R.J.; Liu, Y.Q.

    2005-01-01

    Toroidal plasma rotation in the order of a few percent of the Alfven velocity can stabilize the resistive wall mode and extend the operating regime of tokamaks from the conventional, ideal MHD no-wall limit up to the ideal MHD ideal wall limit. The stabilizing effect has been measured passively by measuring the critical plasma rotation required for stability and actively by probing the plasma with externally applied resonant magnetic fields. These measurements are compared to predictions of rotational stabilization of the sound wave damping and of the kinetic damping model using the MARS code. (author)

  20. Techniques for Liquid Rocket Combustion Spontaneous Stability and Rough Combustion Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, R. J.; Giacomoni, C.; Casiano, M. J.; Fischbach, S. R.

    2016-01-01

    This work presents techniques for liquid rocket engine combustion stability assessments with respect to spontaneous stability and rough combustion. Techniques covering empirical parameter extraction, which were established in prior works, are applied for three additional programs: the F-1 Gas Generator (F1GG) component test program, the RS-84 preburner component test program, and the Marshall Integrated Test Rig (MITR) program. Stability assessment parameters from these programs are compared against prior established spontaneous stability metrics and updates are identified. Also, a procedure for comparing measured with predicted mode shapes is presented, based on an extension of the Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC).

  1. Prediction of Endocrine System Affectation in Fisher 344 Rats by Food Intake Exposed with Malathion, Applying Naïve Bayes Classifier and Genetic Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Juan David Sandino; Hurtado, Darío Amaya; Sandoval, Olga Lucía Ramos

    2016-01-01

    Reported cases of uncontrolled use of pesticides and its produced effects by direct or indirect exposition, represent a high risk for human health. Therefore, in this paper, it is shown the results of the development and execution of an algorithm that predicts the possible effects in endocrine system in Fisher 344 (F344) rats, occasioned by ingestion of malathion. It was referred to ToxRefDB database in which different case studies in F344 rats exposed to malathion were collected. The experimental data were processed using Naïve Bayes (NB) machine learning classifier, which was subsequently optimized using genetic algorithms (GAs). The model was executed in an application with a graphical user interface programmed in C#. There was a tendency to suffer bigger alterations, increasing levels in the parathyroid gland in dosages between 4 and 5 mg/kg/day, in contrast to the thyroid gland for doses between 739 and 868 mg/kg/day. It was showed a greater resistance for females to contract effects on the endocrine system by the ingestion of malathion. Females were more susceptible to suffer alterations in the pituitary gland with exposure times between 3 and 6 months. The prediction model based on NB classifiers allowed to analyze all the possible combinations of the studied variables and improving its accuracy using GAs. Excepting the pituitary gland, females demonstrated better resistance to contract effects by increasing levels on the rest of endocrine system glands.

  2. Applied Electromagnetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamashita, H; Marinova, I; Cingoski, V [eds.

    2002-07-01

    These proceedings contain papers relating to the 3rd Japanese-Bulgarian-Macedonian Joint Seminar on Applied Electromagnetics. Included are the following groups: Numerical Methods I; Electrical and Mechanical System Analysis and Simulations; Inverse Problems and Optimizations; Software Methodology; Numerical Methods II; Applied Electromagnetics.

  3. Applied Electromagnetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, H.; Marinova, I.; Cingoski, V.

    2002-01-01

    These proceedings contain papers relating to the 3rd Japanese-Bulgarian-Macedonian Joint Seminar on Applied Electromagnetics. Included are the following groups: Numerical Methods I; Electrical and Mechanical System Analysis and Simulations; Inverse Problems and Optimizations; Software Methodology; Numerical Methods II; Applied Electromagnetics

  4. Evaluation of non-volatile metabolites in beer stored at high temperature and utility as an accelerated method to predict flavour stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuberger, Adam L; Broeckling, Corey D; Sedin, Dana; Holbrook, Christian; Barr, Lindsay; Kirkpatrick, Kaylyn; Prenni, Jessica E

    2016-06-01

    Flavour stability is vital to the brewing industry as beer is often stored for an extended time under variable conditions. Developing an accelerated model to evaluate brewing techniques that affect flavour stability is an important area of research. Here, we performed metabolomics on non-volatile compounds in beer stored at 37 °C between 1 and 14 days for two beer types: an amber ale and an India pale ale. The experiment determined high temperature to influence non-volatile metabolites, including the purine 5-methylthioadenosine (5-MTA). In a second experiment, three brewing techniques were evaluated for improved flavour stability: use of antioxidant crowns, chelation of pro-oxidants, and varying plant content in hops. Sensory analysis determined the hop method was associated with improved flavour stability, and this was consistent with reduced 5-MTA at both regular and high temperature storage. Future studies are warranted to understand the influence of 5-MTA on flavour and aging within different beer types. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Electro-thermal Modeling for Junction Temperature Cycling-Based Lifetime Prediction of a Press-Pack IGBT 3L-NPC-VSC Applied to Large Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Senturk, Osman Selcuk; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Teodorescu, Remus

    2011-01-01

    Reliability is a critical criterion for multi-MW wind turbines, which are being employed with increasing numbers in wind power plants, since they operate under harsh conditions and have high maintenance cost due to their remote locations. In this study, the wind turbine grid-side converter...... reliability is investigated regarding IGBT lifetime based on junction temperature cycling for the grid-side press-pack IGBT 3L-NPC-VSC, which is a state-of-the art high reliability solution. In order to acquire IGBT junction temperatures for given wind power profiles and to use them in IGBT lifetime...... prediction, the converter electro-thermal model including electrical, power loss, and dynamical thermal models is developed with the main focus on the thermal modeling regarding converter topology, switch technology, and physical structure. Moreover, these models are simplified for their practical...

  6. Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)'s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: A case study in Macon County, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D.; Adler, R.F.; Gourley, J.J.; Wooten, R.

    2011-01-01

    The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the transient dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis) is a USGS landslide prediction model, coded in Fortran, that accounts for the influences of hydrology, topography, and soil physics on slope stability. In this study, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (MaTRIGRS) in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricanes Ivan triggered widespread landslides in the 2004 hurricane season. High resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data (6-m LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from North Carolina Geological Survey is used to evaluate the MaTRIGRS' predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing, identifying predictions within a 120-m radius of observed landslides over the 30-h period of Hurricane Ivan's passage in September 2004. Results show that within a radius of 24 m from the landslide location about 67% of the landslide, observations could be successfully predicted but with a high false alarm ratio (90%). If the radius of observation is extended to 120 m, 98% of the landslides are detected with an 18% false alarm ratio. This study shows that MaTRIGRS demonstrates acceptable spatiotemporal predictive skill for landslide occurrences within a 120-m radius in space and a hurricane-event-duration (h) in time, offering the potential to serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. The validation can be further improved with additional landslide information including the exact time of failure for each

  7. An Applied Method for Predicting the Load-Carrying Capacity in Compression of Thin-Wall Composite Structures with Impact Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrofanov, O.; Pavelko, I.; Varickis, S.; Vagele, A.

    2018-03-01

    The necessity for considering both strength criteria and postbuckling effects in calculating the load-carrying capacity in compression of thin-wall composite structures with impact damage is substantiated. An original applied method ensuring solution of these problems with an accuracy sufficient for practical design tasks is developed. The main advantage of the method is its applicability in terms of computing resources and the set of initial data required. The results of application of the method to solution of the problem of compression of fragments of thin-wall honeycomb panel damaged by impacts of various energies are presented. After a comparison of calculation results with experimental data, a working algorithm for calculating the reduction in the load-carrying capacity of a composite object with impact damage is adopted.

  8. Applied superconductivity

    CERN Document Server

    Newhouse, Vernon L

    1975-01-01

    Applied Superconductivity, Volume II, is part of a two-volume series on applied superconductivity. The first volume dealt with electronic applications and radiation detection, and contains a chapter on liquid helium refrigeration. The present volume discusses magnets, electromechanical applications, accelerators, and microwave and rf devices. The book opens with a chapter on high-field superconducting magnets, covering applications and magnet design. Subsequent chapters discuss superconductive machinery such as superconductive bearings and motors; rf superconducting devices; and future prospec

  9. Interval ridge regression (iRR) as a fast and robust method for quantitative prediction and variable selection applied to edible oil adulteration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jović, Ozren; Smrečki, Neven; Popović, Zora

    2016-04-01

    A novel quantitative prediction and variable selection method called interval ridge regression (iRR) is studied in this work. The method is performed on six data sets of FTIR, two data sets of UV-vis and one data set of DSC. The obtained results show that models built with ridge regression on optimal variables selected with iRR significantly outperfom models built with ridge regression on all variables in both calibration (6 out of 9 cases) and validation (2 out of 9 cases). In this study, iRR is also compared with interval partial least squares regression (iPLS). iRR outperfomed iPLS in validation (insignificantly in 6 out of 9 cases and significantly in one out of 9 cases for poil, a well known health beneficial nutrient, is studied in this work by mixing it with cheap and widely used oils such as soybean (So) oil, rapeseed (R) oil and sunflower (Su) oil. Binary mixture sets of hempseed oil with these three oils (HSo, HR and HSu) and a ternary mixture set of H oil, R oil and Su oil (HRSu) were considered. The obtained accuracy indicates that using iRR on FTIR and UV-vis data, each particular oil can be very successfully quantified (in all 8 cases RMSEPoil (R(2)>0.99). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictability in Pathological Gambling? Applying the Duplication of Purchase Law to the Understanding of Cross-Purchases Between Regular and Pathological Gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Desmond; Mizerski, Richard

    2017-06-01

    The objective of this study is to explore the gambling participations and game purchase duplication of light regular, heavy regular and pathological gamblers by applying the Duplication of Purchase Law. Current study uses data collected by the Australian Productivity Commission for eight different types of games. Key behavioral statistics on light regular, heavy regular, and pathological gamblers were computed and compared. The key finding is that pathological gambling, just like regular gambling, follows the Duplication of Purchase Law, which states that the dominant factor of purchase duplication between two brands is their market shares. This means that gambling between any two games at pathological level, like any regular consumer purchases, exhibits "law-like" regularity based on the pathological gamblers' participation rate of each game. Additionally, pathological gamblers tend to gamble more frequently across all games except lotteries and instant as well as make greater cross-purchases compared to heavy regular gamblers. A better understanding of the behavioral traits between regular (particularly heavy regular) and pathological gamblers can be useful to public policy makers and social marketers in order to more accurately identify such gamblers and better manage the negative impacts of gambling.

  11. ePCR: an R-package for survival and time-to-event prediction in advanced prostate cancer, applied to real-world patient cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laajala, Teemu D; Murtojärvi, Mika; Virkki, Arho; Aittokallio, Tero

    2018-06-15

    Prognostic models are widely used in clinical decision-making, such as risk stratification and tailoring treatment strategies, with the aim to improve patient outcomes while reducing overall healthcare costs. While prognostic models have been adopted into clinical use, benchmarking their performance has been difficult due to lack of open clinical datasets. The recent DREAM 9.5 Prostate Cancer Challenge carried out an extensive benchmarking of prognostic models for metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC), based on multiple cohorts of open clinical trial data. We make available an open-source implementation of the top-performing model, ePCR, along with an extended toolbox for its further re-use and development, and demonstrate how to best apply the implemented model to real-world data cohorts of advanced prostate cancer patients. The open-source R-package ePCR and its reference documentation are available at the Central R Archive Network (CRAN): https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ePCR. R-vignette provides step-by-step examples for the ePCR usage. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  12. Pilot study to establish a nasal tip prediction method from unknown human skeletal remains for facial reconstruction and skull photo superimposition as applied to a Japanese male populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utsuno, Hajime; Kageyama, Toru; Uchida, Keiichi; Kibayashi, Kazuhiko; Sakurada, Koichi; Uemura, Koichi

    2016-02-01

    Skull-photo superimposition is a technique used to identify the relationship between the skull and a photograph of a target person: and facial reconstruction reproduces antemortem facial features from an unknown human skull, or identifies the facial features of unknown human skeletal remains. These techniques are based on soft tissue thickness and the relationships between soft tissue and the skull, i.e., the position of the ear and external acoustic meatus, pupil and orbit, nose and nasal aperture, and lips and teeth. However, the ear and nose region are relatively difficult to identify because of their structure, as the soft tissues of these regions are lined with cartilage. We attempted to establish a more accurate method to determine the position of the nasal tip from the skull. We measured the height of the maxilla and mid-lower facial region in 55 Japanese men and generated a regression equation from the collected data. We obtained a result that was 2.0±0.99mm (mean±SD) distant from the true nasal tip, when applied to a validation set consisting of another 12 Japanese men. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Applied Gravity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shiraz Minwalla

    Einstein's theory of general relativity has had a remarkably successful last hundred years. It provides the basic framework for cosmology. The gravitational waves it predicts are likely to provide us with a new 21st century window to the universe (LIGO, LISA?). Black holes appear to have been observed. At a more mundane ...

  14. Applied mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Logan, J David

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition"Future mathematicians, scientists, and engineers should find the book to be an excellent introductory text for coursework or self-study as well as worth its shelf space for reference." -MAA Reviews Applied Mathematics, Fourth Edition is a thoroughly updated and revised edition on the applications of modeling and analyzing natural, social, and technological processes. The book covers a wide range of key topics in mathematical methods and modeling and highlights the connections between mathematics and the applied and nat

  15. Applied Enzymology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoharan, Asha; Dreisbach, Joseph H.

    1988-01-01

    Describes some examples of chemical and industrial applications of enzymes. Includes a background, a discussion of structure and reactivity, enzymes as therapeutic agents, enzyme replacement, enzymes used in diagnosis, industrial applications of enzymes, and immobilizing enzymes. Concludes that applied enzymology is an important factor in…

  16. Reversed shear Alfven eigenmode stabilization by localized electron cyclotron heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Zeeland, M A; Hyatt, A W; Lohr, J; Petty, C C [General Atomics, PO Box 85608 San Diego, CA 92186-5608 (United States); Heidbrink, W W [University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States); Nazikian, R; Solomon, W M; Gorelenkov, N N; Kramer, G J [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08543-0451 (United States); Austin, M E [University of Texas-Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Berk, H L [Institute for Fusion Studies, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Holcomb, C T; Makowski, M A [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States); McKee, G R [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726 (United States); Sharapov, S E [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham, Abingdon, Oxfordshire, OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Rhodes, T L [University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, 90095 (United States)], E-mail: vanzeeland@fusion.gat.com

    2008-03-15

    Reversed shear Alfven eigenmode (RSAE) activity in DIII-D is stabilized by electron cyclotron heating (ECH) applied near the minimum of the magnetic safety factor (q{sub min}) in neutral beam heated discharges with reversed-magnetic shear. The degree of RSAE stabilization, fast ion density and the volume averaged neutron production (S{sub n}) are highly dependent on ECH deposition location relative to q{sub min}. While discharges with ECH stabilization of RSAEs have higher S{sub n} and more peaked fast ion profiles than discharges with significant RSAE activity, neutron production remains strongly reduced (up to 60% relative to TRANSP predictions assuming classical fast ion transport) even when RSAEs are stabilized.

  17. Applied chromodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodsky, S.J.

    1983-11-01

    A number of novel features of QCD are reviewed, including the consequences of formation zone and color transparency phenomena in hadronic collisions, the use of automatic scale setting for perturbative predictions, null-zone phenomena as a fundamental test of gauge theory, and the relationship of intrinsic heavy colored particle Fock state components to new particle production. We conclude with a review of the applications of QCD to nuclear multiquark systems. 74 references

  18. Scramjet Combustion Stability Behavior Modeling, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A recent breakthrough in combustion stability analysis (UCDS) offers the potential to predict the combustion stability of a scramjet. This capability is very...

  19. Scramjet Combustion Stability Behavior Modeling, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A recent breakthrough in combustion stability analysis (UCDS) offers the means to accurately predict the combustion stability of a scramjet. This capability is very...

  20. An adaptive recurrent neural-network controller using a stabilization matrix and predictive inputs to solve a tracking problem under disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbank, Michael; Li, Shuhui; Fu, Xingang; Alonso, Eduardo; Wunsch, Donald

    2014-01-01

    We present a recurrent neural-network (RNN) controller designed to solve the tracking problem for control systems. We demonstrate that a major difficulty in training any RNN is the problem of exploding gradients, and we propose a solution to this in the case of tracking problems, by introducing a stabilization matrix and by using carefully constrained context units. This solution allows us to achieve consistently lower training errors, and hence allows us to more easily introduce adaptive capabilities. The resulting RNN is one that has been trained off-line to be rapidly adaptive to changing plant conditions and changing tracking targets. The case study we use is a renewable-energy generator application; that of producing an efficient controller for a three-phase grid-connected converter. The controller we produce can cope with the random variation of system parameters and fluctuating grid voltages. It produces tracking control with almost instantaneous response to changing reference states, and virtually zero oscillation. This compares very favorably to the classical proportional integrator (PI) controllers, which we show produce a much slower response and settling time. In addition, the RNN we propose exhibits better learning stability and convergence properties, and can exhibit faster adaptation, than has been achieved with adaptive critic designs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Do neighborhood economic characteristics, racial composition, and residential stability predict perceptions of stress associated with the physical and social environment? Findings from a multilevel analysis in Detroit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Amy J; Zenk, Shannon N; Israel, Barbara A; Mentz, Graciela; Stokes, Carmen; Galea, Sandro

    2008-09-01

    As the body of evidence linking disparities in the health of urban residents to disparate social, economic and environmental contexts grows, efforts to delineate the pathways through which broader social and economic inequalities influence health have burgeoned. One hypothesized pathway connects economic and racial and ethnic inequalities to differentials in stress associated with social and physical environments, with subsequent implications for health. Drawing on data from Detroit, Michigan, we examined contributions of neighborhood-level characteristics (e.g., poverty rate, racial and ethnic composition, residential stability) and individual-level characteristics (e.g., age, gender) to perceived social and physical environmental stress. We found that neighborhood percent African American was positively associated with perceptions of both social and physical environmental stress; neighborhood percent poverty and percent Latino were positively associated with perceived physical environmental stress; and neighborhood residential stability was negatively associated with perceived social environmental stress. At the individual level, whites perceived higher levels of both social and physical environmental stress compared to African American residents of the same block groups, after accounting for other variables included in the models. Our findings suggest the importance of understanding and addressing contributions of neighborhood structural characteristics to perceptions of neighborhood stress. The consistency of the finding that neighborhood racial composition and individual-level race influence perceptions of both social and physical environments suggests the continuing importance of understanding the role played by structural conditions and by personal and collective histories that vary systematically by race and ethnicity within the United States.

  2. Personality Predictors of Successful Development: Toddler Temperament and Adolescent Personality Traits Predict Well-Being and Career Stability in Middle Adulthood

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blatný, Marek; Millová, Katarína; Jelínek, Martin; Osecká, Terezie

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 4 (2015), s. 1-21 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP407/10/2410 Institutional support: RVO:68081740 Keywords : personality * temperament * well-being * social functioning * prediction * longitudinal study * life -span psychology * childhood * adolescence * adulthood Subject RIV: AN - Psychology Impact factor: 3.057, year: 2015

  3. Early identification of children at-risk for academic difficulties, using standardized assessment: stability and predictive validity of preschool math and language scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frans, Niek; Post, Wendy J.; Huisman, Mark; Oenema-Mostert, Ineke C.E.; Keegstra, Anne L.; Minnaert, Alexander E.M.G.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the claim by several researchers that variability in performance may complicate the identification of “at-risk” children, variability in the academic performance of young children remains an undervalued area of research. The goal of this study is to examine the predictive validity for future

  4. Personality Predictors of Successful Development: Toddler Temperament and Adolescent Personality Traits Predict Well-Being and Career Stability in Middle Adulthood

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blatný, Marek; Millová, Katarína; Jelínek, Martin; Osecká, Terezie

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 4 (2015), s. 1-21 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP407/10/2410 Institutional support: RVO:68081740 Keywords : personality * temperament * well-being * social functioning * prediction * longitudinal study * life-span psychology * childhood * adolescence * adulthood Subject RIV: AN - Psychology Impact factor: 3.057, year: 2015

  5. Applied dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Schiehlen, Werner

    2014-01-01

    Applied Dynamics is an important branch of engineering mechanics widely applied to mechanical and automotive engineering, aerospace and biomechanics as well as control engineering and mechatronics. The computational methods presented are based on common fundamentals. For this purpose analytical mechanics turns out to be very useful where D’Alembert’s principle in the Lagrangian formulation proves to be most efficient. The method of multibody systems, finite element systems and continuous systems are treated consistently. Thus, students get a much better understanding of dynamical phenomena, and engineers in design and development departments using computer codes may check the results more easily by choosing models of different complexity for vibration and stress analysis.

  6. Applied optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orszag, A.; Antonetti, A.

    1988-01-01

    The 1988 progress report, of the Applied Optics laboratory, of the (Polytechnic School, France), is presented. The optical fiber activities are focused on the development of an optical gyrometer, containing a resonance cavity. The following domains are included, in the research program: the infrared laser physics, the laser sources, the semiconductor physics, the multiple-photon ionization and the nonlinear optics. Investigations on the biomedical, the biological and biophysical domains are carried out. The published papers and the congress communications are listed [fr

  7. A spectral clustering search algorithm for predicting shallow landslide size and location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dino Bellugi; David G. Milledge; William E. Dietrich; Jim A. McKean; J. Taylor Perron; Erik B. Sudderth; Brian Kazian

    2015-01-01

    The potential hazard and geomorphic significance of shallow landslides depend on their location and size. Commonly applied one-dimensional stability models do not include lateral resistances and cannot predict landslide size. Multi-dimensional models must be applied to specific geometries, which are not known a priori, and testing all possible geometries is...

  8. Control of locomotor stability in stabilizing and destabilizing environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Mengnan/Mary; Brown, Geoffrey; Gordon, Keith E

    2017-06-01

    To develop effective interventions targeting locomotor stability, it is crucial to understand how people control and modify gait in response to changes in stabilization requirements. Our purpose was to examine how individuals with and without incomplete spinal cord injury (iSCI) control lateral stability in haptic walking environments that increase or decrease stabilization demands. We hypothesized that people would adapt to walking in a predictable, stabilizing viscous force field and unpredictable destabilizing force field by increasing and decreasing feedforward control of lateral stability, respectively. Adaptations in feedforward control were measured using after-effects when fields were removed. Both groups significantly (pfeedforward adaptions to increase control of lateral stability. In contrast, in the destabilizing field, non-impaired subjects increased movement variability (p0.05). When the destabilizing field was removed, increases in movement variability persisted (pfeedforward decreases in resistance to perturbations. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Modelling predicts that tolerance to drought during reproductive development will be required for high yield potential and stability of wheat in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Paul, Matthew J.

    2017-04-01

    Short periods of extreme weather, such as a spell of high temperature or drought during a sensitive stage of development, could result in substantial yield losses due to reduction in grain number and grain size. In a modelling study (Stratonovitch & Semenov 2015), heat tolerance around flowering in wheat was identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change. Ji et all (Ji et al. 2010) demonstrated cultivar specific responses of yield to drought stress around flowering in wheat. They hypothesised that carbohydrate supply to anthers may be the key in maintaining pollen fertility and grain number in wheat. It was shown in (Nuccio et al. 2015) that genetically modified varieties of maize that increase the concentration of sucrose in ear spikelets, performed better under non-drought and drought conditions in field experiments. The objective of this modelling study was to assess potential benefits of tolerance to drought during reproductive development for wheat yield potential and yield stability across Europe. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimise wheat ideotypes for 2050 (HadGEM2, RCP8.5) climate scenarios at selected European sites. Eight cultivar parameters were optimised to maximise mean yields, including parameters controlling phenology, canopy growth and water limitation. At those sites where water could be limited, ideotypes sensitive to drought produced substantially lower mean yields and higher yield variability compare with tolerant ideotypes. Therefore, tolerance to drought during reproductive development is likely to be required for wheat cultivars optimised for the future climate in Europe in order to achieve high yield potential and yield stability.

  10. Hydromagnetic thin film flow: Linear stability

    KAUST Repository

    Amaouche, Mustapha; Ait Abderrahmane, Hamid; Bourdache, Lamia

    2013-01-01

    . The linear stability of the problem is investigated, and the influence of electromagnetic field on the flow stability is analyzed. Two cases are considered: the applied magnetic field is either normal or parallel to the fluid flow direction, while

  11. Machine learning applied to crime prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Vaquero Barnadas, Miquel

    2016-01-01

    Machine Learning is a cornerstone when it comes to artificial intelligence and big data analysis. It provides powerful algorithms that are capable of recognizing patterns, classifying data, and, basically, learn by themselves to perform a specific task. This field has incredibly grown in popularity these days, however, it still remains unknown for the majority of people, and even for most professionals. This project intends to provide an understandable explanation of what is it, what types ar...

  12. Applied geodesy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, S.

    1987-01-01

    This volume is based on the proceedings of the CERN Accelerator School's course on Applied Geodesy for Particle Accelerators held in April 1986. The purpose was to record and disseminate the knowledge gained in recent years on the geodesy of accelerators and other large systems. The latest methods for positioning equipment to sub-millimetric accuracy in deep underground tunnels several tens of kilometers long are described, as well as such sophisticated techniques as the Navstar Global Positioning System and the Terrameter. Automation of better known instruments such as the gyroscope and Distinvar is also treated along with the highly evolved treatment of components in a modern accelerator. Use of the methods described can be of great benefit in many areas of research and industrial geodesy such as surveying, nautical and aeronautical engineering, astronomical radio-interferometry, metrology of large components, deformation studies, etc

  13. Applied mathematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedelec, J.C.

    1988-01-01

    The 1988 progress report of the Applied Mathematics center (Polytechnic School, France), is presented. The research fields of the Center are the scientific calculus, the probabilities and statistics and the video image synthesis. The research topics developed are: the analysis of numerical methods, the mathematical analysis of the physics and mechanics fundamental models, the numerical solution of complex models related to the industrial problems, the stochastic calculus and the brownian movement, the stochastic partial differential equations, the identification of the adaptive filtering parameters, the discrete element systems, statistics, the stochastic control and the development, the image synthesis techniques for education and research programs. The published papers, the congress communications and the thesis are listed [fr

  14. Development of RP-HPLC, Stability Indicating Method for Degradation Products of Linagliptin in Presence of Metformin HCl by Applying 2 Level Factorial Design; and Identification of Impurity-VII, VIII and IX and Synthesis of Impurity-VII

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant B. Jadhav

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The novel reverse phase-high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC, stability indicating method was developed for determination of linagliptin (LGP and its related substances in linagliptin and metformin HCl (MET HCl tablets by implementing design of experiment to understand the critical method parameters and their relation with critical method attributes; to ensure robustness of the method. The separation of nine specified impurities was achieved with a Zorbax SB-Aq 250 × 4.6 mm, 5 µm column, using gradient elution and a detector wavelength of 225 nm, and validated in accordance with International Conference on Harmonization (ICH guidelines and found to be accurate, precise, reproducible, robust, and specific. The drug was found to be degrading extensively in heat, humidity, basic, and oxidation conditions and was forming degradation products during stability studies. After slight modification in the buffer and the column, the same method was used for liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC-MS and ultra-performance liquid chromatography -time-of-flight/mass spectrometry UPLC-TOF/MS analysis, to identify m/z and fragmentation of maximum unspecified degradation products i.e., Impurity-VII (7, Impurity-VIII (8, and Impurity-IX (9 formed during stability studies. Based on the results, a degradation pathway for the drug has been proposed and synthesis of Impurity-VII (7 is also discussed to ensure an in-depth understanding of LGP and its related degradation products and optimum performance during the lifetime of the product.

  15. Flight-Determined, Subsonic, Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives of the Thrust-Vectoring F-18 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV), and Comparisons to the Basic F-18 and Predicted Derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliff, Kenneth W.; Wang, Kon-Sheng Charles

    1999-01-01

    The subsonic, lateral-directional, stability and control derivatives of the thrust-vectoring F-1 8 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) are extracted from flight data using a maximum likelihood parameter identification technique. State noise is accounted for in the identification formulation and is used to model the uncommanded forcing functions caused by unsteady aerodynamics. Preprogrammed maneuvers provided independent control surface inputs, eliminating problems of identifiability related to correlations between the aircraft controls and states. The HARV derivatives are plotted as functions of angles of attack between 10deg and 70deg and compared to flight estimates from the basic F-18 aircraft and to predictions from ground and wind tunnel tests. Unlike maneuvers of the basic F-18 aircraft, the HARV maneuvers were very precise and repeatable, resulting in tightly clustered estimates with small uncertainty levels. Significant differences were found between flight and prediction; however, some of these differences may be attributed to differences in the range of sideslip or input amplitude over which a given derivative was evaluated, and to differences between the HARV external configuration and that of the basic F-18 aircraft, upon which most of the prediction was based. Some HARV derivative fairings have been adjusted using basic F-18 derivatives (with low uncertainties) to help account for differences in variable ranges and the lack of HARV maneuvers at certain angles of attack.

  16. Neuro-fuzzy inference system Prediction of stability indices and Sodium absorption ratio in Lordegan rural drinking water resources in west Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takdastan, Afshin; Mirzabeygi Radfard, Majid; Yousefi, Mahmood; Abbasnia, Abbas; Khodadadia, Rouhollah; Soleimani, Hamed; Mahvi, Amir Hossein; Naghan, Davood Jalili

    2018-06-01

    According to World Health Organization guidelines, corrosion control is an important aspect of safe drinking-water supplies. Water always includes ingredients, dissolved gases and suspended materials. Although some of these water ingredients is indispensable for human beings, these elements more than permissible limits, could be endanger human health. The aim of this study is to assess physical and chemical parameters of drinking water in the rural areas of Lordegan city, also to determine corrosion indices. This cross-sectional study has carried out with 141 taken samples during 2017 with 13 parameters, which has been analyzed based on standard method and to estimate the water quality indices from groundwater using ANFIS. Also with regard to standard conditions, results of this paper are compared with Environmental Protection Agency and Iran national standards. Five indices, Ryznar Stability Index (RSI), Langlier Saturation Index (LSI), Larson-Skold Index (LS), Puckorius Scaling Index (PSI), and Aggressive Index (AI) programmed by using Microsoft Excel software. Owing to its simplicity, the program, can easily be used by researchers and operators. Parameters included Sulfate, Sodium, Chloride, and Electrical Conductivity respectively were 13.5, 28, 10.5, and 15% more than standard level. The amount of Nitrate, in 98% of cases were in permissible limits and about 2% were more than standard level. Result of presented research indicate that water is corrosive at 10.6%,89.4%,87.2%,59.6% and 14.9% of drinking water supply reservoirs, according to LSI, RSI, PSI, LS and AI, respectively.

  17. Irritable and Defiant Sub-Dimensions of ODD: Their Stability and Prediction of Internalizing Symptoms and Conduct Problems from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homel, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    Emerging research has identified sub-dimensions of oppositional defiant disorder – irritability and defiance -that differentially predict internalizing and externalizing symptoms in preschoolers, children, and adolescents. Using a theoretical approach and confirmatory factor analyses to distinguish between irritability and defiance, we investigate the associations among these dimensions and internalizing (anxiety and depression) and externalizing problems (conduct problems) within and across time in a community-based sample of 662 youth (342 females) spanning ages 12 to 18 years old at baseline. On average, irritability was stable across assessment points and defiance declined. Within time, associations of irritability with internalizing were consistently stronger than associations of irritability with conduct problems. Defiance was similarly associated within time with both internalizing and conduct problems in mid-adolescence, but was more highly related to internalizing than to conduct problems by early adulthood (ages 18 to 25). Over time, increasing irritability was related to changes in both internalizing and conduct problems; whereas increases in defiance predicted increases in conduct problems more strongly than internalizing symptoms. Increases in both internalizing and conduct problems were also associated with subsequent increases in both irritability and defiance. Sex differences in these associations were not significant. PMID:25028284

  18. Modeling and Stability Assessment of Single-Phase Grid Synchronization Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Golestan, Saeed; Guerrero, Josep M.; Vasquez, Juan

    2018-01-01

    (GSTs) is of vital importance. This task is most often based on obtaining a linear time-invariant (LTI) model for the GST and applying standard stability tests to it. Another option is modeling and dynamics/stability assessment of GSTs in the linear time-periodic (LTP) framework, which has received...... a very little attention. In this letter, the procedure of deriving the LTP model for single-phase GSTs is first demonstrated. The accuracy of the LTP model in predicting the GST dynamic behavior and stability is then evaluated and compared with that of the LTI one. Two well-known single-phase GSTs, i...

  19. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  20. Applying radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallozzi, P.J.; Epstein, H.M.; Jung, R.G.; Applebaum, D.C.; Fairand, B.P.; Gallagher, W.J.; Uecker, R.L.; Muckerheide, M.C.

    1979-01-01

    The invention discloses a method and apparatus for applying radiation by producing X-rays of a selected spectrum and intensity and directing them to a desired location. Radiant energy is directed from a laser onto a target to produce such X-rays at the target, which is so positioned adjacent to the desired location as to emit the X-rays toward the desired location; or such X-rays are produced in a region away from the desired location, and are channeled to the desired location. The radiant energy directing means may be shaped (as with bends; adjustable, if desired) to circumvent any obstruction between the laser and the target. Similarly, the X-ray channeling means may be shaped (as with fixed or adjustable bends) to circumvent any obstruction between the region where the X-rays are produced and the desired location. For producing a radiograph in a living organism the X-rays are provided in a short pulse to avoid any blurring of the radiograph from movement of or in the organism. For altering tissue in a living organism the selected spectrum and intensity are such as to affect substantially the tissue in a preselected volume without injuring nearby tissue. Typically, the selected spectrum comprises the range of about 0.1 to 100 keV, and the intensity is selected to provide about 100 to 1000 rads at the desired location. The X-rays may be produced by stimulated emission thereof, typically in a single direction

  1. Stabilizing Niger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahonou, Eric Komlavi

    international intervention in Niger. Their main objective is to secure their own strategic, economic and political interests by strengthening the Nigerien authorities through direct intervention and capacity building activities. For western states reinforcing state security institutions and stabilizing elite...

  2. Exploiting sequence and stability information for directing nanobody stability engineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Patrick; Flock, Tilman; Soler, Nicolas; Zaiss, Moritz; Vincke, Cécile; Sterckx, Yann; Kastelic, Damjana; Muyldermans, Serge; Hoheisel, Jörg D

    2017-09-01

    Variable domains of camelid heavy-chain antibodies, commonly named nanobodies, have high biotechnological potential. In view of their broad range of applications in research, diagnostics and therapy, engineering their stability is of particular interest. One important aspect is the improvement of thermostability, because it can have immediate effects on conformational stability, protease resistance and aggregation propensity of the protein. We analyzed the sequences and thermostabilities of 78 purified nanobody binders. From this data, potentially stabilizing amino acid variations were identified and studied experimentally. Some mutations improved the stability of nanobodies by up to 6.1°C, with an average of 2.3°C across eight modified nanobodies. The stabilizing mechanism involves an improvement of both conformational stability and aggregation behavior, explaining the variable degree of stabilization in individual molecules. In some instances, variations predicted to be stabilizing actually led to thermal destabilization of the proteins. The reasons for this contradiction between prediction and experiment were investigated. The results reveal a mutational strategy to improve the biophysical behavior of nanobody binders and indicate a species-specificity of nanobody architecture. This study illustrates the potential and limitations of engineering nanobody thermostability by merging sequence information with stability data, an aspect that is becoming increasingly important with the recent development of high-throughput biophysical methods. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Cyber Deterrence and Stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goychayev, Rustam [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carr, Geoffrey A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Weise, Rachel A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Donnelly, David A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Clements, Samuel L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Benz, Jacob M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rodda, Kabrena E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bartholomew, Rachel A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McKinnon, Archibald D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Andres, Richard B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-09-30

    Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.

  4. Stability of loess

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutenegger, A.J.; Hallberg, G.R.

    1988-01-01

    Lutenegger, A.J. and Hallberg, G.R., 1988. Stability of loess. Eng. Geol., 25: 247-261. The natural stability of loess soils can be related to fundamental geotechnical properties such as Atterberg limits, water content and void ratio. Field observations of unstable conditions in loess deposits in the upper midwest, U.S.A. show relationships between instability and the in situ moisture content and the liquidity index of the loess. Unstable loess can attain natural moisture contents equal to, or greater than, its liquid limit. Implications of these observations for applied engineering works are described. ?? 1988.

  5. Evaluation of accelerated stability test conditions for medicated chewing gums.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggi, Lauretta; Conte, Ubaldo; Nhamias, Alain; Grenier, Pascal; Vergnault, Guy

    2013-10-01

    The overall stability of medicated chewing gums is investigated under different storage conditions. Active substances with different chemical stabilities in solid state are chosen as model drugs. The dosage form is a three layer tablet obtained by direct compression. The gum core contains the active ingredient while the external layers are formulated to prevent gum adhesion to the punches of the tableting machine. Two accelerated test conditions (40°C/75% RH and 30°C/65% RH) are performed for 6 months. Furthermore, a long-term stability test at room conditions is conducted to verify the predictability of the results obtained from the stress tests. Some drugs are stable in all the conditions tested, but other drugs, generally considered stable in solid dosage forms, have shown relevant stability problems particularly when stress test conditions are applied to this particular semi-solid dosage forms. For less stable drugs, the stress conditions of 40°C/75% RH are not always predictable of chewing gum stability at room temperature and may produce false negative; intermediate conditions, 30°C/65% RH, are more predictive for this purpose, the results of drug content found after 6 months at intermediate stress conditions and 12 months at room conditions are generally comparable. But the results obtained show that only long-term conditions stability tests gave consistent results. During aging, the semi solid nature of the gum base itself, may also influence the drug delivery rate during chewing and great attention should be given also to the dissolution stability.

  6. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  7. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    This document describes ideal and resistive MHD studies of high-beta plasmas and of the second stability region. Significant progress is reported on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies initial profiles were taken from the TRANSP code which is used extensively to analyze experimental data. When an ad hoc method of removing the finite pressure stabilization of tearing modes is implemented it is shown that there is substantial agreement between MHD stability computation and experiment. In particular, the mode structures observed experimentally are consistent with the predictions of the resistive MHD model. We also report on resistive stability near the transition to the second region in TFTR. Tearing modes associated with a nearby infernal mode may explain the increase in MHD activity seen in high beta supershots and which impede the realization of Q∼1. We also report on a collaborative study with PPPL involving sawtooth stabilization with ICRF

  8. Oblique electron-cyclotron-emission radial and phase detector of rotating magnetic islands applied to alignment and modulation of electron-cyclotron-current-drive for neoclassical tearing mode stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volpe, F.; Austin, M. E.; Campbell, G.; Deterly, T.

    2012-01-01

    A two channel oblique electron cyclotron emission (ECE) radiometer was installed on the DIII-D tokamak and interfaced to four gyrotrons. Oblique ECE was used to toroidally and radially localize rotating magnetic islands and so assist their electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) stabilization. In particular, after manipulations operated by the interfacing analogue circuit, the oblique ECE signals directly modulated the current drive in synch with the island rotation and in phase with the island O-point, for a more efficient stabilization. Apart from the different toroidal location, the diagnostic view is identical to the ECCD launch direction, which greatly simplified the real-time use of the signals. In fact, a simple toroidal extrapolation was sufficient to lock the modulation to the O-point phase. This was accomplished by a specially designed phase shifter of nearly flat response over the 1–7 kHz range. Moreover, correlation analysis of two channels slightly above and below the ECCD frequency allowed checking the radial alignment to the island, based on the fact that for satisfactory alignment the two signals are out of phase.

  9. Limits of Nuclear Stability

    CERN Document Server

    Nerlo-Pomorska, B; Kleban, M

    2003-01-01

    The modern version of the liquid-drop model (LSD) is compared with the macroscopic part of the binding energy evaluated within the Hartree-Fock- Bogoliubov procedure with the Gogny force and the relativistic mean field theory. The parameters of a liquid-drop like mass formula which approximate on the average the self-consistent results are compared with other models. The limits of nuclear stability predicted by these models are discussed.

  10. Stability analysis and trend study of a balloon tethered in a wind, with experimental comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redd, L. T.; Bland, S. R.; Bennett, R. M.

    1973-01-01

    A stability analysis and trend study for a balloon tethered in a steady wind are presented. The linearized, stability-derivative type analysis includes balloon aerodynamics, buoyancy, mass (including apparent mass), and static forces resulting from the tether cable. The analysis has been applied to a balloon 7.64 m in length, and the results are compared with those from tow tests of this balloon. This comparison shows that the analysis gives reasonable predictions for the damping, frequencies, modes of motion, and stability boundaries exhibited by the balloon. A trend study for the 7.64-m balloon was made to illustrate how the stability boundaries are affected by changes in individual stability parameters. The trends indicated in this study may also be applicable to many other tethered-balloon systems.

  11. Macroeconomic stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    It is demonstrated that full employment and sustainable development not necessarily are conflicting goals. On the other hand macroeconomic stability cannot be obtained without a deliberate labour sharing policy and a shift in the composition of private consumption away from traditional material...

  12. Stabilized superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.

    1975-01-01

    The stable, high field, high current composite wire comprises multiple filaments in a depleted bronze matrix, each filament comprising a type II superconducting, beta-tungsten structure, intermetallic compound layer jacketing and metallurgically bonded to a stabilizing copper core, directly or via an intermediate layer of refractory metal

  13. Uranium mill tailings stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartley, J.N.; Koehmstedt, P.L.; Esterl, D.J.; Freeman, H.D.

    1980-02-01

    Uranium mill tailings pose a potential radiation health hazard to the public. Therefore, stabilization or disposal of these tailings in a safe and environmentally sound way is needed to minimize radon exhalation and other environmental hazards. One of the most promising concepts for stabilizing U tailings is the use of asphalt emulsion to contain radon and other hazardous materials within uranium tailings. This approach is being investigated at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Results of these studies indicate that a radon flux reduction of greater than 99% can be obtained using either a poured-on/sprayed-on seal (3.0 to 7.0 mm thick) or an admixture seal (2.5 to 12.7 cm thick) containing about 18 wt % residual asphalt. A field test was carried out in June 1979 at the Grand Junction tailings pile in order to demonstrate the sealing process. A reduction in radon flux ranging from 4.5 to greater than 99% (76% average) was achieved using a 15.2-cm (6-in.) admix seal with a sprayed-on top coat. A hydrostatic stabilizer was used to apply the admix. Following compaction, a spray coat seal was applied over the admix as the final step in construction of a radon seal. Overburden was applied to provide a protective soil layer over the seal. Included in part of the overburden was a herbicide to prevent root penetration

  14. Applied plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1979-01-01

    Applied Plasma Physics is a major sub-organizational unit of the Magnetic Fusion Energy (MFE) Program. It includes Fusion Plasma Theory and Experimental Plasma Research. The Fusion Plasma Theory group has the responsibility for developing theoretical-computational models in the general areas of plasma properties, equilibrium, stability, transport, and atomic physics. This group has responsibility for giving guidance to the mirror experimental program. There is a formal division of the group into theory and computational; however, in this report the efforts of the two areas are not separated since many projects have contributions from members of both. Under the Experimental Plasma Research Program we are developing a neutral-beam source, the intense, pulsed ion-neutral source (IPINS), for the generation of a reversed-field configuration on 2XIIB. We are also studying the feasibility of using certain neutron-detection techniques as plasma diagnostics in the next generation of thermonuclear experiments

  15. Applied plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1978-01-01

    Applied Plasma Physics is a major sub-organizational unit of the MFE Program. It includes Fusion Plasma Theory and Experimental Plasma Research. The Fusion Plasma Theory group has the responsibility for developing theoretical-computational models in the general areas of plasma properties, equilibrium, stability, transport, and atomic physics. This group has responsibility for giving guidance to the mirror experimental program. There is a formal division of the group into theory and computational; however, in this report the efforts of the two areas are not separated since many projects have contributions from members of both. Under the Experimental Plasma Research Program, we are developing the intense, pulsed neutral-beam source (IPINS) for the generation of a reversed-field configuration on 2XIIB. We are also studying the feasibility of utilizing certain neutron-detection techniques as plasma diagnostics in the next generation of thermonuclear experiments

  16. Study of a new possibility to predict the behavior of high - performance anticorrosive protections applied on steel after their exposure in natural aggressive environments, respectively in laboratory accelerated conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina POPA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the global warming, notable changes in the climatic regime of Romania were observed in the last 40-50 years by increasing of the maximum temperatures and decreasing of the minimum temperatures characteristic for each season. This paper makes reference to an experimental research regarding the actual severity of the Romanian climate and its effects toward some performant anticorrosive coatings applied on steel. Such performant anticorrosive protection systems were exposed in situ – marine and alpine environment - and in parallel, aiming to simulate the severe climatic actions through laboratory accelerated environments - neutral salt fog, condensation and temperature variations. The graphical representation and the interpretation of the adhesion to the steel surface by means of the variation of the class into which the paint was framed after performing the cross-cut test during the exposure provided information concerning a new possibility to predict the evolution of the degradation of the paint, by means of this characteristic experimentally determined.

  17. A bootstrapped neural network model applied to prediction of the biodegradation rate of reactive Black 5 dye - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v35i3.16210

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleber Rogério Moreira Prado

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Current essay forwards a biodegradation model of a dye, used in the textile industry, based on a neural network propped by bootstrap remodeling. Bootstrapped neural network is set to generate estimates that are close to results obtained in an intrinsic experience in which a chemical process is applied. Pseudomonas oleovorans was used in the biodegradation of reactive Black 5. Results show a brief comparison between the information estimated by the proposed approach and the experimental data, with a coefficient of correlation between real and predicted values for a more than 0.99 biodegradation rate. Dye concentration and the solution’s pH failed to interfere in biodegradation index rates. A value above 90% of dye biodegradation was achieved between 1.000 and 1.841 mL 10 mL-1 of microorganism concentration and between 1.000 and 2.000 g 100 mL-1 of glucose concentration within the experimental conditions under analysis.   

  18. Facultative Stabilization Pond: Measuring Biological Oxygen Demand using Mathematical Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wira S, Ihsan; Sunarsih, Sunarsih

    2018-02-01

    Pollution is a man-made phenomenon. Some pollutants which discharged directly to the environment could create serious pollution problems. Untreated wastewater will cause contamination and even pollution on the water body. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) is the amount of oxygen required for the oxidation by bacteria. The higher the BOD concentration, the greater the organic matter would be. The purpose of this study was to predict the value of BOD contained in wastewater. Mathematical modeling methods were chosen in this study to depict and predict the BOD values contained in facultative wastewater stabilization ponds. Measurements of sampling data were carried out to validate the model. The results of this study indicated that a mathematical approach can be applied to predict the BOD contained in the facultative wastewater stabilization ponds. The model was validated using Absolute Means Error with 10% tolerance limit, and AME for model was 7.38% (< 10%), so the model is valid. Furthermore, a mathematical approach can also be applied to illustrate and predict the contents of wastewater.

  19. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.

  20. PREDICTIVE METHODS FOR STABILITY MARGIN IN BWR

    OpenAIRE

    MELARA SAN ROMÁN, JOSÉ

    2016-01-01

    [EN] Power and flow oscillations in a BWR are very undesirable. One of the major concerns is to ensure, during power oscillations, compliance with GDC 10 and 12. GDC 10 requires that the reactor core be designed with appropriate margin to assure that specified acceptable fuel design limits will not be exceeded during any condition of normal operation, including the effects of anticipated operational occurrences. GDC 12 requires assurance that power oscillations which can result in conditions ...

  1. Surface rheology and interface stability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaklin, Melissa A.; Cote, Raymond O.; Moffat, Harry K.; Grillet, Anne Mary; Walker, Lynn; Koehler, Timothy P.; Reichert, Matthew D. (Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA); Castaneda, Jaime N.; Mondy, Lisa Ann; Brooks, Carlton, F.

    2010-11-01

    We have developed a mature laboratory at Sandia to measure interfacial rheology, using a combination of home-built, commercially available, and customized commercial tools. An Interfacial Shear Rheometer (KSV ISR-400) was modified and the software improved to increase sensitivity and reliability. Another shear rheometer, a TA Instruments AR-G2, was equipped with a du Nouey ring, bicone geometry, and a double wall ring. These interfacial attachments were compared to each other and to the ISR. The best results with the AR-G2 were obtained with the du Nouey ring. A Micro-Interfacial Rheometer (MIR) was developed in house to obtain the much higher sensitivity given by a smaller probe. However, it was found to be difficult to apply this technique for highly elastic surfaces. Interfaces also exhibit dilatational rheology when the interface changes area, such as occurs when bubbles grow or shrink. To measure this rheological response we developed a Surface Dilatational Rheometer (SDR), in which changes in surface tension with surface area are measured during the oscillation of the volume of a pendant drop or bubble. All instruments were tested with various surfactant solutions to determine the limitations of each. In addition, foaming capability and foam stability were tested and compared with the rheology data. It was found that there was no clear correlation of surface rheology with foaming/defoaming with different types of surfactants, but, within a family of surfactants, rheology could predict the foam stability. Diffusion of surfactants to the interface and the behavior of polyelectrolytes were two subjects studied with the new equipment. Finally, surface rheological terms were added to a finite element Navier-Stokes solver and preliminary testing of the code completed. Recommendations for improved implementation were given. When completed we plan to use the computations to better interpret the experimental data and account for the effects of the underlying bulk

  2. Stability of mixing layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Christopher; Krothapalli, A

    1993-01-01

    The research program for the first year of this project (see the original research proposal) consists of developing an explicit marching scheme for solving the parabolized stability equations (PSE). Performing mathematical analysis of the computational algorithm including numerical stability analysis and the determination of the proper boundary conditions needed at the boundary of the computation domain are implicit in the task. Before one can solve the parabolized stability equations for high-speed mixing layers, the mean flow must first be found. In the past, instability analysis of high-speed mixing layer has mostly been performed on mean flow profiles calculated by the boundary layer equations. In carrying out this project, it is believed that the boundary layer equations might not give an accurate enough nonparallel, nonlinear mean flow needed for parabolized stability analysis. A more accurate mean flow can, however, be found by solving the parabolized Navier-Stokes equations. The advantage of the parabolized Navier-Stokes equations is that its accuracy is consistent with the PSE method. Furthermore, the method of solution is similar. Hence, the major part of the effort of the work of this year has been devoted to the development of an explicit numerical marching scheme for the solution of the Parabolized Navier-Stokes equation as applied to the high-seed mixing layer problem.

  3. Ractor stability monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeuchi, Yutaka.

    1991-01-01

    A stability monitor for a BWR type reactor determines the index of stability by statistic processing of signals from an average power region monitor or the like, but it takes much time and the reliability thereof is not always high. Then, parameters such as reactor core power are measured on every sampling periods as observation data and pretreatments such as normalization are applied successively, to obtain monitored amount and store them successively. Differentiation coefficient relative to time are calculated by using the observed amount at present and that one sample period before, to evaluate on a phasal plane using the amount of observation and the differentiation coefficient with time on the axes of coordinate. As a result, information relative to the stability can be represented accurately, thereby enabling to monitor the stability at a high accuracy. Further, judgement for the condition considering the amplitude is conducted upon oscillation, thereby enabling to conduct control operation certainly. The operation in a region where it has been limited under great caution can be conducted appropriately and safely, enabling to conduct controlled operation of excellent economical property. (N.H.)

  4. Hillslope hydrology and stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ning; Godt, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Landslides are caused by a failure of the mechanical balance within hillslopes. This balance is governed by two coupled physical processes: hydrological or subsurface flow and stress. The stabilizing strength of hillslope materials depends on effective stress, which is diminished by rainfall. This book presents a cutting-edge quantitative approach to understanding hydro-mechanical processes across variably saturated hillslope environments and to the study and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. Topics covered include historic synthesis of hillslope geomorphology and hydrology, total and effective stress distributions, critical reviews of shear strength of hillslope materials and different bases for stability analysis. Exercises and homework problems are provided for students to engage with the theory in practice. This is an invaluable resource for graduate students and researchers in hydrology, geomorphology, engineering geology, geotechnical engineering and geomechanics and for professionals in the fields of civil and environmental engineering and natural hazard analysis.

  5. Before Stabilization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plesner, Ursula; Horst, Maja

    2013-01-01

    of the communication about innovations in information and communication technology (ICT), and to contribute to an understanding of how different visions promise particular future configurations of workflows, communication processes, politics, economic models and social relations. Hereby, the paper adds...... to the literature on the relationship between ICTs and organizing, but with a distinct focus on innovation communication and distributed innovation processes taking place before ICTs are stabilized, issues which cannot be captured by studies of diffusion and adaptation of new ICTs within single organizations....

  6. Non-adiabatic stability analysis of current and magnetic curvature driven modes in cold plasmas penetrated by neutral gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohlsson, D.

    1978-08-01

    Previous stability theories concerning electrostatic current and magnetic curvature driven modes in cold plasma mantle boundary layers are generalized. In particular the commonly used adiabatic approximation is relaxed. In the general theory presented important new effects associated with heat conduction, ionization and ohmic heating are found. In combination with viscosity and resistivity these effects introduce additional stabilizing as well as destabilizing effects. Furthermore the present theory typically predicts similar stability properties as the adiabatic theory in the limit |d(1nT)/d(1nn)| >1 the general theory predicts less favourable stability properties. One may speculate that these conclusions also apply to more general types of electrostatic modes associated with density and temperature gradients in cold plasma mantel boundary layers. (author)

  7. Applied analysis and differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Cârj, Ovidiu

    2007-01-01

    This volume contains refereed research articles written by experts in the field of applied analysis, differential equations and related topics. Well-known leading mathematicians worldwide and prominent young scientists cover a diverse range of topics, including the most exciting recent developments. A broad range of topics of recent interest are treated: existence, uniqueness, viability, asymptotic stability, viscosity solutions, controllability and numerical analysis for ODE, PDE and stochastic equations. The scope of the book is wide, ranging from pure mathematics to various applied fields such as classical mechanics, biomedicine, and population dynamics.

  8. Axisymmetric annular curtain stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Zahir U; Khayat, Roger E; Maissa, Philippe; Mathis, Christian

    2012-01-01

    A temporal stability analysis was carried out to investigate the stability of an axially moving viscous annular liquid jet subject to axisymmetric disturbances in surrounding co-flowing viscous gas media. We investigated in this study the effects of inertia, surface tension, the gas-to-liquid density ratio, the inner-to-outer radius ratio and the gas-to-liquid viscosity ratio on the stability of the jet. With an increase in inertia, the growth rate of the unstable disturbances is found to increase. The dominant (or most unstable) wavenumber decreases with increasing Reynolds number for larger values of the gas-to-liquid viscosity ratio. However, an opposite tendency for the most unstable wavenumber is predicted for small viscosity ratio in the same inertia range. The surrounding gas density, in the presence of viscosity, always reduces the growth rate, hence stabilizing the flow. There exists a critical value of the density ratio above which the flow becomes stable for very small viscosity ratio, whereas for large viscosity ratio, no stable flow appears in the same range of the density ratio. The curvature has a significant destabilizing effect on the thin annular jet, whereas for a relatively thick jet, the maximum growth rate decreases as the inner radius increases, irrespective of the surrounding gas viscosity. The degree of instability increases with Weber number for a relatively large viscosity ratio. In contrast, for small viscosity ratio, the growth rate exhibits a dramatic dependence on the surface tension. There is a small Weber number range, which depends on the viscosity ratio, where the flow is stable. The viscosity ratio always stabilizes the flow. However, the dominant wavenumber increases with increasing viscosity ratio. The range of unstable wavenumbers is affected only by the curvature effect. (paper)

  9. Occlusal stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, Jonathan P; Priebe, Jennifer W

    2014-01-01

    Occlusion is the foundation for clinical success in fixed, removable, and implant prosthodontic treatment. Understanding those principles is critical when restoring a patient's occlusion. Many philosophies, devices, and theories of occlusion have evolved based on anecdotal clinical observations and applied geometric perceptions. The literature has reported these classic and contemporary occlusal concepts. As evidence-based dentistry emerged, it championed scrutiny of previously held beliefs, resulting in the abandonment of many pragmatic, yet beneficial occlusal procedures. The impetus toward scientific discovery, whereby factual information might be universally applied in dental education and clinical practice, has renewed interest in occlusal studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Numerical estimation of aircrafts' unsteady lateral-directional stability derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maričić N.L.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A technique for predicting steady and oscillatory aerodynamic loads on general configuration has been developed. The prediction is based on the Doublet-Lattice Method, Slender Body Theory and Method of Images. The chord and span wise loading on lifting surfaces and longitudinal bodies (in horizontal and vertical plane load distributions are determined. The configuration may be composed of an assemblage of lifting surfaces (with control surfaces and bodies (with circular cross sections and a longitudinal variation of radius. Loadings predicted by this method are used to calculate (estimate steady and unsteady (dynamic lateral-directional stability derivatives. The short outline of the used methods is given in [1], [2], [3], [4] and [5]. Applying the described methodology software DERIV is developed. The obtained results from DERIV are compared to NASTRAN examples HA21B and HA21D from [4]. In the first example (HA21B, the jet transport wing (BAH wing is steady rolling and lateral stability derivatives are determined. In the second example (HA21D, lateral-directional stability derivatives are calculated for forward- swept-wing (FSW airplane in antisymmetric quasi-steady maneuvers. Acceptable agreement is achieved comparing the results from [4] and DERIV.

  11. A Combined Thermodynamic and Kinetic Model for Barite Prediction at Oil Reservoir Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhen Wu, Bi Yun

    of the literature (PhD Study 1). The reviewed dataset was used as starting point for geochemical speciation modelling and applied to predict the stability of sulphate minerals in North Sea oil field brines. Second, for modelling of high salinity solutions using the Pitzer ion interaction approach, the temperature...... observations. This information can help planning mitigation and optimise costs in oil production....

  12. Influence of Pressure-gradient and Shear on Ballooning Stability in Stellarators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, S.R.; Hegna, C.C.; Nakajima, N.

    2005-01-01

    Pressure-driven, ideal ballooning stability calculations are often used to predict the achievable plasma in stellarator configurations. In this paper, the sensitivity of ballooning stability to plasmas profile variations is addressed. A simple, semi-analytic method for expressing the ballooning growth rate, for each field line, as a polynomial function of the variation in the pressure gradient and the average magnetic shear from an original equilibrium has recently been introduced [Phys. Plasmas 11:9 (September 2004) L53]. This paper will apply the expression to various stellarator configurations and comment on the validity of various truncated forms of the polynomial expression. In particular, it is shown that in general it is insufficient to consider only the second order terms as previously assumed, and that higher order terms must be included to obtain accurate predictions of stability

  13. Field investigation of keyblock stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yow, J.L. Jr.

    1985-04-01

    Discontinuities in a rock mass can intersect an excavation surface to form discrete blocks (keyblocks) which can be unstable. This engineering problem is divided into two parts: block identification, and evaluation of block stability. One stable keyblock and thirteen fallen keyblocks were observed in field investigations at the Nevada Test Site. Nine blocks were measured in detail sufficient to allow back-analysis of their stability. Measurements included block geometry, and discontinuity roughness and compressive strength. Back-analysis correctly predicted stability or failure in all but two cases. These two exceptions involved situations that violated the stress assumptions of the stability calculations. Keyblock faces correlated well with known joint set orientations. The effect of tunnel orientation on keyblock frequency was apparent. Back-analysis of physical models successfully predicted block pullout force for two-dimensional models of unit thickness. Two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) analytic models for the stability of simple pyramidal keyblocks were examined. Calculated stability is greater for 3D analyses than for 2D analyses. Calculated keyblock stability increases with larger in situ stress magnitudes, larger lateral stress ratios, and larger shear strengths. Discontinuity stiffness controls block displacement more strongly than it does stability itself. Large keyblocks are less stable than small ones, and stability increases as blocks become more slender. Rock mass temperature decreases reduce the confining stress magnitudes and can lead to failure. The pattern of stresses affecting each block face explains conceptually the occurrence of pyramidal keyblocks that are truncated near their apex

  14. A Lyapunov method for stability analysis of piecewise-affine systems over non-invariant domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubagotti, Matteo; Zaccarian, Luca; Bemporad, Alberto

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses stability of discrete-time piecewise-affine systems, defined on possibly non-invariant domains, taking into account the possible presence of multiple dynamics in each of the polytopic regions of the system. An algorithm based on linear programming is proposed, in order to prove exponential stability of the origin and to find a positively invariant estimate of its region of attraction. The results are based on the definition of a piecewise-affine Lyapunov function, which is in general discontinuous on the boundaries of the regions. The proposed method is proven to lead to feasible solutions in a broader range of cases as compared to a previously proposed approach. Two numerical examples are shown, among which a case where the proposed method is applied to a closed-loop system, to which model predictive control was applied without a-priori guarantee of stability.

  15. Stability characteristics of compressible boundary layers over thermo-mechanically compliant walls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettenrieder, Fabian; Bodony, Daniel

    2017-11-01

    Transition prediction at hypersonic flight conditions continues to be a challenge and results in conservative safety factors that increase vehicle weight. The weight and thus cost reduction of the outer skin panels promises significant impact; however, fluid-structure interaction due to unsteady perturbations in the laminar boundary layer regime has not been systematically studied at conditions relevant for reusable, hypersonic flight. In this talk, we develop and apply convective and global stability analyses for compressible boundary layers over thermo-mechanically compliant panels. This compliance is shown to change the convective stability of the boundary layer modes, with both stabilization and destabilization observed. Finite panel lengths are shown to affect the global stability properties of the boundary layer.

  16. Local Model Predictive Control for T-S Fuzzy Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghwan; Hu, Jianghai

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a new linear matrix inequality-based model predictive control (MPC) problem is studied for discrete-time nonlinear systems described as Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems. A recent local stability approach is applied to improve the performance of the proposed MPC scheme. At each time k , an optimal state-feedback gain that minimizes an objective function is obtained by solving a semidefinite programming problem. The local stability analysis, the estimation of the domain of attraction, and feasibility of the proposed MPC are proved. Examples are given to demonstrate the advantages of the suggested MPC over existing approaches.

  17. Predictive analysis on the electric energy distribution systems reliability: applying the synerGEE system; Analisis predictivo de la confiabilidad en los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica: aplicando el sistema synerGEE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Andrade, Carlos

    2008-12-15

    Electrical distribution systems ought to deliver electric power as economical as possible with an acceptable degree of service quality and continuity. Nevertheless, their faults represent one of the main causes of customer's unavailability. At the moment, a wide range of determinist criteria in the improvement of systems reliability based on past behavior are used, but they do not respond to the stochastic nature of system behavior, and are applied without an adequate balance between reliability and economy. In order to obtain this balance a minimum cost planning methodology that considers the predictive analysis of different investment alternatives in addition to the past behavior of the system is required, which guarantees that the economic resource available and limited will be used to gather the greater possible reliability degree. In this work this problem is approached with the fundamentals and methodologies needed to assess the design effects and operative criteria over the main reliability indexes used by the main utilities around the world, with emphasis on the need to optimize economical resources. The use of the system SynerGEETM, is investigated, probing it as a useful tool for the predictive reliability analysis. Due to the lack of experience that exists in Mexico with this type of analysis, distribution engineers has to become familiar with the concepts of the reliability engineering, their application to establish distribution systems models, and acquiring the ability to use the modern simulation tools, allowing them to evaluate the behavior of these systems with enough analytical rigor. In this sense a serial of well known study cases are presented to help them in this labor. [Spanish] Los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica deben satisfacer la demanda de energia electrica de la forma mas economica posible, con un grado de calidad y continuidad aceptable. Sin embargo, sus fallas son una de las principales causas de indisponibilidad en

  18. Phase stabilities at a glance: Stability diagrams of nickel dipnictides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bachhuber, F.; Rothballer, J.; Weihrich, R.; Söhnel, T.

    2013-01-01

    In the course of the recent advances in chemical structure prediction, a straightforward type of diagram to evaluate phase stabilities is presented based on an expedient example. Crystal structures and energetic stabilities of dipnictides NiPn 2 (Pn = N, P, As, Sb, Bi) are systematically investigated by first principles calculations within the framework of density functional theory using the generalized gradient approximation to treat exchange and correlation. These dipnictides show remarkable polymorphism that is not yet understood systematically and offers room for the discovery of new phases. Relationships between the concerned structures including the marcasite, the pyrite, the arsenopyrite/CoSb 2 , and the NiAs 2 types are highlighted by means of common structural fragments. Electronic stabilities of experimentally known and related AB 2 structure types are presented graphically in so-called stability diagrams. Additionally, competing binary phases are taken into consideration in the diagrams to evaluate the stabilities of the title compounds with respect to decomposition. The main purpose of the stability diagrams is the introduction of an image that enables the estimation of phase stabilities at a single glance. Beyond that, some of the energetically favored structure types can be identified as potential new phases

  19. Stability of Streamer Chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Toshiaki; Ogawa, Masato; Takahashi, Kaoru; Sugiyama, Tsunetoshi; Kobayashi, Shigeharu; Kohno, Hirobumi

    1982-08-01

    The quality of tracks obtained from a streamer chamber is studied through the measurement of the streamer brightness. The stability of streamer tracks depends on the value of the high voltage applied and its shape. By using a single conical-type spark gap as the pulse shaper, stable brightness of the streamer tracks is attained. The data on the streamer brightness are compared with the result by Bulos et al. and it is found that the brightness is more strongly affected by field parameters than in their result.

  20. Stability of streamer chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Toshiaki; Ogawa, Masato; Takahashi, Kaoru; Sugiyama, Tsunetoshi; Kobayashi, Shigeharu; Kohno, Hirobumi.

    1982-01-01

    The quality of tracks obtained from a streamer chamber is studied through the measurement of the streamer brightness. The stability of streamer tracks depends on the value of the high voltage applied and its shape. By using a single conical-type spark gap as the pulse shaper, stable brightness of the streamer tracks is attained. The data on the streamer brightness are compared with the result by Bulos et al. and it is found that the brightness is more strongly affected by field parameters than in their result. (author)

  1. Stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of a prey-predator system with two delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Kai; Wei Junjie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we have considered a prey-predator model with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response and selective harvesting of predator species. Two delays appear in this model to describe the time that juveniles take to mature. Its dynamics are studied in terms of local analysis and Hopf bifurcation analysis. By analyzing the associated characteristic equation, its linear stability is investigated and Hopf bifurcations are demonstrated. The stability and direction of the Hopf bifurcation are determined by applying the normal form method and the center manifold theory. Numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions.

  2. Prediction of boundary-layer transition caused by crossflow disturbances

    OpenAIRE

    Nomura, Toshiyuki; 野村 聡幸

    1999-01-01

    A prediction system for boundary layer transition is developed which consists of the Navier-Stokes code computing a compressible boundary layer, the linear PSE (Parabolized Stability Equations) code computing the spatial growth of a disturbance, and the N-factor code integrating the growth rate. The system is applied to the case that the transition of the compressible boundary layer on a swept cylinder is caused by cross flow disturbances which have the same spanwise wavelength as observed in...

  3. Heterotic moduli stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicoli, M.; De Alwis, S.; Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO; Westphal, A.

    2013-04-01

    We perform a systematic analysis of moduli stabilization for weakly coupled heterotic string theory compactified on smooth Calabi-Yau three-folds. We focus on both supersymmetric and supersymmetry breaking vacua of generic (0,2) compactifications obtained by minimising the total (F+D)-term scalar potential. After reviewing how to stabilise all the geometric moduli in a supersymmetric way by including fractional fluxes, non-perturbative and threshold effects, we show that the inclusion of α' corrections leads to new de Sitter or nearly Minkowski vacua which break supersymmetry spontaneously. The minimum lies at moderately large volumes of all the geometric moduli, at perturbative values of the string coupling and at the right phenomenological value of the GUT gauge coupling. However the structure of the heterotic 3-form flux used for complex structure moduli stabilization does not contain enough freedom to tune the superpotential. This results in the generic prediction of high-scale supersymmetry breaking around the GUT scale. We finally provide a dynamical derivation of anisotropic compactifications with stabilized moduli which allow for perturbative gauge coupling unification around 10 16 GeV.

  4. Heterotic moduli stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, M. [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dipt. Fisica ed Astronomia; INFN, Bologna (Italy); Adbus Salam ICTP, Trieste (Italy); De Alwis, S. [Adbus Salam ICTP, Trieste (Italy); Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). UCB 390 Physics Dept.; Westphal, A. [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group

    2013-04-15

    We perform a systematic analysis of moduli stabilization for weakly coupled heterotic string theory compactified on smooth Calabi-Yau three-folds. We focus on both supersymmetric and supersymmetry breaking vacua of generic (0,2) compactifications obtained by minimising the total (F+D)-term scalar potential. After reviewing how to stabilise all the geometric moduli in a supersymmetric way by including fractional fluxes, non-perturbative and threshold effects, we show that the inclusion of {alpha}' corrections leads to new de Sitter or nearly Minkowski vacua which break supersymmetry spontaneously. The minimum lies at moderately large volumes of all the geometric moduli, at perturbative values of the string coupling and at the right phenomenological value of the GUT gauge coupling. However the structure of the heterotic 3-form flux used for complex structure moduli stabilization does not contain enough freedom to tune the superpotential. This results in the generic prediction of high-scale supersymmetry breaking around the GUT scale. We finally provide a dynamical derivation of anisotropic compactifications with stabilized moduli which allow for perturbative gauge coupling unification around 10{sup 16} GeV.

  5. Applied statistical thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Lucas, Klaus

    1991-01-01

    The book guides the reader from the foundations of statisti- cal thermodynamics including the theory of intermolecular forces to modern computer-aided applications in chemical en- gineering and physical chemistry. The approach is new. The foundations of quantum and statistical mechanics are presen- ted in a simple way and their applications to the prediction of fluid phase behavior of real systems are demonstrated. A particular effort is made to introduce the reader to expli- cit formulations of intermolecular interaction models and to show how these models influence the properties of fluid sy- stems. The established methods of statistical mechanics - computer simulation, perturbation theory, and numerical in- tegration - are discussed in a style appropriate for newcom- ers and are extensively applied. Numerous worked examples illustrate how practical calculations should be carried out.

  6. Applied mechanics of solids

    CERN Document Server

    Bower, Allan F

    2009-01-01

    Modern computer simulations make stress analysis easy. As they continue to replace classical mathematical methods of analysis, these software programs require users to have a solid understanding of the fundamental principles on which they are based. Develop Intuitive Ability to Identify and Avoid Physically Meaningless Predictions Applied Mechanics of Solids is a powerful tool for understanding how to take advantage of these revolutionary computer advances in the field of solid mechanics. Beginning with a description of the physical and mathematical laws that govern deformation in solids, the text presents modern constitutive equations, as well as analytical and computational methods of stress analysis and fracture mechanics. It also addresses the nonlinear theory of deformable rods, membranes, plates, and shells, and solutions to important boundary and initial value problems in solid mechanics. The author uses the step-by-step manner of a blackboard lecture to explain problem solving methods, often providing...

  7. IMPROVED ROOF STABILIZATION TECHNOLOGIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) remediation sites have performed roof repair and roof replacement to stabilize facilities prior to performing deactivation and decommissioning (D and D) activities. This project will review the decision criteria used by these DOE sites, along with the type of repair system used for each different roof type. Based on this information, along with that compiled from roofing experts, a decision-making tool will be generated to aid in selecting the proper roof repair systems. Where appropriate, innovative technologies will be reviewed and applied to the decision-making tool to determine their applicability. Based on the results, applied research and development will be conducted to develop a method to repair these existing roofing systems, while providing protection for the D and D worker in a cost-efficient manner

  8. IMPROVED ROOF STABILIZATION TECHNOLOGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Ebadian, Ph.D.

    1999-01-01

    Many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) remediation sites have performed roof repair and roof replacement to stabilize facilities prior to performing deactivation and decommissioning (D&D) activities. This project will review the decision criteria used by these DOE sites, along with the type of repair system used for each different roof type. Based on this information, along with that compiled from roofing experts, a decision-making tool will be generated to aid in selecting the proper roof repair systems. Where appropriate, innovative technologies will be reviewed and applied to the decision-making tool to determine their applicability. Based on the results, applied research and development will be conducted to develop a method to repair these existing roofing systems, while providing protection for the D and D worker in a cost-efficient manner.

  9. Individual Predictors of Adolescents' Vocational Interest Stabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The study investigated the predictive utility of interest profile differentiation, coherence, elevation, congruence, and vocational identity commitment and career maturity (career planning and exploration) on the 10-month interest stability of 292 Swiss eighth-grade students: profile, rank, and level stabilities were assessed. Controlling for…

  10. Containment vessel stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harstead, G.A.; Morris, N.F.; Unsal, A.I.

    1983-01-01

    The stability analysis for a steel containment shell is presented herein. The containment is a freestanding shell consisting of a vertical cylinder with a hemispherical dome. It is stiffened by large ring stiffeners and relatively small longitudinal stiffeners. The containment vessel is subjected to both static and dynamic loads which can cause buckling. These loads must be combined prior to their use in a stability analysis. The buckling loads were computed with the aid of the ASME Code case N-284 used in conjunction with general purpose computer codes and in-house programs. The equations contained in the Code case were used to compute the knockdown factors due to shell imperfections. After these knockdown factors were applied to the critical stress states determined by freezing the maximum dynamic stresses and combining them with other static stresses, a linear bifurcation analysis was carried out with the aid of the BOSOR4 program. Since the containment shell contained large penetrations, the Code case had to be supplemented by a local buckling analysis of the shell area surrounding the largest penetration. This analysis was carried out with the aid of the NASTRAN program. Although the factor of safety against buckling obtained in this analysis was satisfactory, it is claimed that the use of the Code case knockdown factors are unduly conservative when applied to the analysis of buckling around penetrations. (orig.)

  11. Lyapunov vs. geometrical stability analysis of the Kepler and the restricted three body problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahalom, A.; Levitan, J.; Lewkowicz, M.; Horwitz, L.

    2011-01-01

    In this Letter we show that although the application of standard Lyapunov analysis predicts that completely integrable Kepler motion is unstable, the geometrical analysis of Horwitz et al. predicts the observed stability. This seems to us to provide evidence for both the incompleteness of the standard Lyapunov analysis and the strength of the geometrical analysis. Moreover, we apply this approach to the three body problem in which the third body is restricted to move on a circle of large radius which induces an adiabatic time dependent potential on the second body. This causes the second body to move in a very interesting and intricate but periodic trajectory; however, the standard Lyapunov analysis, as well as methods based on the parametric variation of curvature associated with the Jacobi metric, incorrectly predict chaotic behavior. The geometric approach predicts the correct stable motion in this case as well. - Highlights: → Lyapunov analysis predicts Kepler motion to be unstable. → Geometrical analysis predicts the observed stability. → Lyapunov analysis predicts chaotic behavior in restricted three body problem. → The geometric approach predicts the correct stable motion in restricted three body problem.

  12. Stability indicators in network reconstruction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Filosi

    Full Text Available The number of available algorithms to infer a biological network from a dataset of high-throughput measurements is overwhelming and keeps growing. However, evaluating their performance is unfeasible unless a 'gold standard' is available to measure how close the reconstructed network is to the ground truth. One measure of this is the stability of these predictions to data resampling approaches. We introduce NetSI, a family of Network Stability Indicators, to assess quantitatively the stability of a reconstructed network in terms of inference variability due to data subsampling. In order to evaluate network stability, the main NetSI methods use a global/local network metric in combination with a resampling (bootstrap or cross-validation procedure. In addition, we provide two normalized variability scores over data resampling to measure edge weight stability and node degree stability, and then introduce a stability ranking for edges and nodes. A complete implementation of the NetSI indicators, including the Hamming-Ipsen-Mikhailov (HIM network distance adopted in this paper is available with the R package nettools. We demonstrate the use of the NetSI family by measuring network stability on four datasets against alternative network reconstruction methods. First, the effect of sample size on stability of inferred networks is studied in a gold standard framework on yeast-like data from the Gene Net Weaver simulator. We also consider the impact of varying modularity on a set of structurally different networks (50 nodes, from 2 to 10 modules, and then of complex feature covariance structure, showing the different behaviours of standard reconstruction methods based on Pearson correlation, Maximum Information Coefficient (MIC and False Discovery Rate (FDR strategy. Finally, we demonstrate a strong combined effect of different reconstruction methods and phenotype subgroups on a hepatocellular carcinoma miRNA microarray dataset (240 subjects, and we

  13. Assessment of trace element stabilization in soil

    OpenAIRE

    Kumpiene, Jurate

    2005-01-01

    The thesis deals with the remediation of trace element contaminated soil by the chemical stabilization technique. The objective is to complement the knowledge about possibilities of applying the stabilization either (1) as an alternate soil remediation method to excavation and landfilling or (2) for a pre-treatment of contaminated soil before landfilling. The work is based on two case studies of the stabilization of 1) Cr, Cu, As, and Zn contaminated soil using metallic iron and 2) Pb and Cu ...

  14. MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox Trim and Static Stability Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis

    2012-01-01

    MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox (MASCOT) utilizes geometric, aerodynamic, and inertial inputs to calculate air vehicle stability in a variety of critical flight conditions. The code is based on fundamental, non-linear equations of motion and is able to translate results into a qualitative, graphical scale useful to the non-expert. MASCOT was created to provide the conceptual aircraft designer accurate predictions of air vehicle stability and control characteristics. The code takes as input mass property data in the form of an inertia tensor, aerodynamic loading data, and propulsion (i.e. thrust) loading data. Using fundamental nonlinear equations of motion, MASCOT then calculates vehicle trim and static stability data for the desired flight condition(s). Available flight conditions include six horizontal and six landing rotation conditions with varying options for engine out, crosswind, and sideslip, plus three take-off rotation conditions. Results are displayed through a unique graphical interface developed to provide the non-stability and control expert conceptual design engineer a qualitative scale indicating whether the vehicle has acceptable, marginal, or unacceptable static stability characteristics. If desired, the user can also examine the detailed, quantitative results.

  15. Nonparallel linear stability analysis of unconfined vortices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrada, M. A.; Barrero, A.

    2004-10-01

    Parabolized stability equations [F. P. Bertolotti, Th. Herbert, and P. R. Spalart, J. Fluid. Mech. 242, 441 (1992)] have been used to study the stability of a family of swirling jets at high Reynolds numbers whose velocity and pressure fields decay far from the axis as rm-2 and r2(m-2), respectively [M. Pérez-Saborid, M. A. Herrada, A. Gómez-Barea, and A. Barrero, J. Fluid. Mech. 471, 51 (2002)]; r is the radial distance and m is a real number in the interval 0applied to predict the vortex breakdown of this kind of swirling jets. On the contrary, the failure of the quasicylindrical approximation used to compute the downstream evolution of the basic flow gives a clear breakdown criterion based on the catastrophic transition between slender and nonslender flows.

  16. The Analysis Stability of Anchor Retaining Wall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamara, F. Z.; Belabed, L

    2011-01-01

    The construction of anchored retaining walls reach every day in the field of Civil Engineering especially in public works. Their dimensioning and stability are the axes of research for geotechnical. The rule is to reduce the active forces of the slide and increase the effective normal stress on the rupture surface. So that, we anchored tied-back (constituted by steel cables) in the stable ground located under the failure surface and we apply at the top a traction force. This effort can be distributed over the ground surface by means of small plates or massive reinforced concrete. The study of the stability of anchored retaining wall was also performed by using software GEO4. Many cases can be solved using analytical solutions available in the group GEO4 program, but for our standard model solution studied analytically proved unsatisfactory so we used a numerical analysis based on the method of finite element in this program. The results obtained by numerical study were interpreted to identify the precision numerical predictions. Moreover these methods were useful and economics in the realization of reinforced slopes by tied-buck. (author)

  17. Principal component analysis applied to Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy for the design of calibration sets for glycerol prediction models in wine and for the detection and classification of outlier samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieuwoudt, Helene H; Prior, Bernard A; Pretorius, Isak S; Manley, Marena; Bauer, Florian F

    2004-06-16

    Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the main sources of variation in the Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectra of 329 wines of various styles. The FT-IR spectra were gathered using a specialized WineScan instrument. The main sources of variation included the reducing sugar and alcohol content of the samples, as well as the stage of fermentation and the maturation period of the wines. The implications of the variation between the different wine styles for the design of calibration models with accurate predictive abilities were investigated using glycerol calibration in wine as a model system. PCA enabled the identification and interpretation of samples that were poorly predicted by the calibration models, as well as the detection of individual samples in the sample set that had atypical spectra (i.e., outlier samples). The Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogy (SIMCA) approach was used to establish a model for the classification of the outlier samples. A glycerol calibration for wine was developed (reducing sugar content 8% v/v) with satisfactory predictive ability (SEP = 0.40 g/L). The RPD value (ratio of the standard deviation of the data to the standard error of prediction) was 5.6, indicating that the calibration is suitable for quantification purposes. A calibration for glycerol in special late harvest and noble late harvest wines (RS 31-147 g/L, alcohol > 11.6% v/v) with a prediction error SECV = 0.65 g/L, was also established. This study yielded an analytical strategy that combined the careful design of calibration sets with measures that facilitated the early detection and interpretation of poorly predicted samples and outlier samples in a sample set. The strategy provided a powerful means of quality control, which is necessary for the generation of accurate prediction data and therefore for the successful implementation of FT-IR in the routine analytical laboratory.

  18. Rotation, Stability and Transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Connor, J. W.

    2007-07-01

    Tokamak plasmas can frequently exhibit high levels of rotation and rotation shear. This can usually be attributed to various sources: injection of momentum, e.g. through neutral beams, flows driven by plasma gradients or torques resulting from non-ambipolar particle loss; however, the source sometimes remains a mystery, such as the spontaneous rotation observed in Ohmic plasmas. The equilibrium rotation profile is given by the balance of these sources with transport and other losses; the edge boundary conditions can play an important role in determining this profile . Such plasma rotation, particularly sheared rotation, is predicted theoretically to have a significant influence on plasma behaviour. In the first place, sonic flows can significantly affect tokamak equilibria and neoclassical transport losses. However, the influence of rotation on plasma stability and turbulence is more profound. At the macroscopic level it affects the behaviour of the gross MHD modes that influence plasma operational limits. This includes sawteeth, the seeding of neoclassical tearing modes, resistive wall modes and the onset of disruptions through error fields, mode locking and reconnection. At the microscopic level it has a major effect on the stability of ballooning modes, both ideal MHD and drift wave instabilities such as ion temperature gradient (ITG) modes. In the non-linear state, as unstable drift waves evolve into turbulent structures, sheared rotation also tears apart eddies, thereby reducing the resulting transport. There is considerable experimental evidence for these effects on both MHD stability and plasma confinement. In particular, the appearance of improved confinement modes with transport barriers, such as edge H-mode barriers and internal transport barriers (ITBs) appears to correlate well with the presence of sheared plasma rotation. This talk will describe the theory underlying some of these phenomena involving plasma rotation, on both macroscopic and microscopic

  19. Soil moisture storage and hillslope stability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talebi, A.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Troch, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Recently, we presented a steady-state analytical hillslope stability model to study rain-induced shallow landslides. This model is based on kinematic wave dynamics of saturated subsurface storage and the infinite slope stability assumption. Here we apply the model to investigate the effect of

  20. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  1. experimental characterization of clay soils behavior stabilized

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    S. Rehab Bekkouche, G. Boukhatem

    2016-09-01

    Sep 1, 2016 ... California Bearing Ratio (CBR) ... the globe. Clay soils have the curious property of seeing their consistency changes according ... The use of building materials had been popularly applied to soil stabilization, such as cement.

  2. Does a crouched leg posture enhance running stability and robustness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Yvonne; Birn-Jeffery, Aleksandra; Daley, Monica A; Seyfarth, Andre

    2011-07-21

    Humans and birds both walk and run bipedally on compliant legs. However, differences in leg architecture may result in species-specific leg control strategies as indicated by the observed gait patterns. In this work, control strategies for stable running are derived based on a conceptual model and compared with experimental data on running humans and pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). From a model perspective, running with compliant legs can be represented by the planar spring mass model and stabilized by applying swing leg control. Here, linear adaptations of the three leg parameters, leg angle, leg length and leg stiffness during late swing phase are assumed. Experimentally observed kinematic control parameters (leg rotation and leg length change) of human and avian running are compared, and interpreted within the context of this model, with specific focus on stability and robustness characteristics. The results suggest differences in stability characteristics and applied control strategies of human and avian running, which may relate to differences in leg posture (straight leg posture in humans, and crouched leg posture in birds). It has been suggested that crouched leg postures may improve stability. However, as the system of control strategies is overdetermined, our model findings suggest that a crouched leg posture does not necessarily enhance running stability. The model also predicts different leg stiffness adaptation rates for human and avian running, and suggests that a crouched avian leg posture, which is capable of both leg shortening and lengthening, allows for stable running without adjusting leg stiffness. In contrast, in straight-legged human running, the preparation of the ground contact seems to be more critical, requiring leg stiffness adjustment to remain stable. Finally, analysis of a simple robustness measure, the normalized maximum drop, suggests that the crouched leg posture may provide greater robustness to changes in terrain height

  3. Intrinsic stability of technical superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veringa, H.J.

    1981-10-01

    For the operation of technical superconductors under high current density conditions, the superconducting wires composing high current cables should be intrinsically stabilized. In this report the various important stability criteria are derived and investigated on their validity. An experimental set up is made to check the occurrence of magnetic instabilities if the different applicable criteria are violated. It is found that the observed instabilities can be predicted on the basis of the model given in this report. Production of high current cables based upon composites made by the ECN technique seems to be possible. (Auth.)

  4. Networked Predictive Control for Nonlinear Systems With Arbitrary Region Quantizers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hongjiu; Xu, Yang; Xia, Yuanqing; Zhang, Jinhui

    2017-04-06

    In this paper, networked predictive control is investigated for planar nonlinear systems with quantization by an extended state observer (ESO). The ESO is used not only to deal with nonlinear terms but also to generate predictive states for dealing with network-induced delays. Two arbitrary region quantizers are applied to take effective values of signals in forward channel and feedback channel, respectively. Based on a "zoom" strategy, sufficient conditions are given to guarantee stabilization of the closed-loop networked control system with quantization. A simulation example is proposed to exhibit advantages and availability of the results.

  5. Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

  6. Formulation and stability testing of photolabile drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tønnesen, H H

    2001-08-28

    Exposure of a drug to irradiation can influence the stability of the formulation, leading to changes in the physicochemical properties of the product. The influence of excipients of frequently used stabilizers is often difficult to predict and, therefore, stability testing of the final preparation is important. The selection of a protective packaging must be based on knowledge about the wavelength causing the instability. Details on drug photoreactivity will also be helpful in order to minimize side-effects and/or optimize drug targeting by developing photoresponsive drug delivery systems. This review focuses on practical problems related to formulation and stability testing of photolabile drugs.

  7. Compressible stability of growing boundary layers using parabolized stability equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chau-Lyan; Malik, Mujeeb R.; Erlebacher, Gordon; Hussaini, M. Y.

    1991-01-01

    The parabolized stability equation (PSE) approach is employed to study linear and nonlinear compressible stability with an eye to providing a capability for boundary-layer transition prediction in both 'quiet' and 'disturbed' environments. The governing compressible stability equations are solved by a rational parabolizing approximation in the streamwise direction. Nonparallel flow effects are studied for both the first- and second-mode disturbances. For oblique waves of the first-mode type, the departure from the parallel results is more pronounced as compared to that for the two-dimensional waves. Results for the Mach 4.5 case show that flow nonparallelism has more influence on the first mode than on the second. The disturbance growth rate is shown to be a strong function of the wall-normal distance due to either flow nonparallelism or nonlinear interactions. The subharmonic and fundamental types of breakdown are found to be similar to the ones in incompressible boundary layers.

  8. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This document summarizes progress made on the research of high beta and second region transport and stability. In the area second stability region studies we report on an investigation of the possibility of second region access in the center of TFTR ''supershots.'' The instabilities found may coincide with experimental observation. Significant progress has been made on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies profiles were taken from the TRANSP transport analysis code which analyzes experimental data. Invoking flattening of the pressure profile on mode rational surfaces causes tearing modes to persist into the experimental range of interest. Further, the experimental observation of the modes seems to be consistent with the predictions of the MHD model. In addition, code development in several areas has proceeded

  9. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  10. Time-dependent simulations of feedback stabilization of neoclassical tearing modes in KSTAR plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyungjin [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Na, Yong-Su, E-mail: ysna@snu.ac.kr [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyun-Seok [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Maraschek, M. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching bei München (Germany); Park, Y.S. [Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York (United States); Stober, J. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching bei München (Germany); Terzolo, L. [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Zohm, H. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching bei München (Germany)

    2014-06-15

    A simulation is performed for feedback stabilization of neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) by electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) for KSTAR in preparation for experiments. An integrated numerical system is constructed by coupling plasma transport, NTM stability, and heating and current drive modules and applied to a KSTAR plasma by assuming similar experimental conditions as ASDEX Upgrade to predict NTM behaviors in KSTAR. System identification is made with database produced by predictive simulations with this integrated numerical system so that three plasma response models are extracted which describe the relation between the EC poloidal launcher angle and the island width in KSTAR. Among them, the P1DI model exhibiting the highest fit accuracy is selected for designing a feedback controller based on the classical Proportional–Integral–Derivative (PID) concept. The controller is coupled with the integrated numerical system and applied to a simulation of NTM stabilization. It is observed that the controller can search and fully stabilize the mode even though the poloidal launch angle is misaligned with the island initially.

  11. A simplified spatial model for BWR stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berman, Y.; Lederer, Y.; Meron, E.

    2012-01-01

    A spatial reduced order model for the study of BWR stability, based on the phenomenological model of March-Leuba et al., is presented. As one dimensional spatial dependence of the neutron flux, fuel temperature and void fraction is introduced, it is possible to describe both global and regional oscillations of the reactor power. Both linear stability analysis and numerical analysis were applied in order to describe the parameters which govern the model stability. The results were found qualitatively similar to past results. Doppler reactivity feedback was found essential for the explanation of the different regions of the flow-power stability map. (authors)

  12. Model Predictive Vibration Control Efficient Constrained MPC Vibration Control for Lightly Damped Mechanical Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Takács, Gergely

    2012-01-01

    Real-time model predictive controller (MPC) implementation in active vibration control (AVC) is often rendered difficult by fast sampling speeds and extensive actuator-deformation asymmetry. If the control of lightly damped mechanical structures is assumed, the region of attraction containing the set of allowable initial conditions requires a large prediction horizon, making the already computationally demanding on-line process even more complex. Model Predictive Vibration Control provides insight into the predictive control of lightly damped vibrating structures by exploring computationally efficient algorithms which are capable of low frequency vibration control with guaranteed stability and constraint feasibility. In addition to a theoretical primer on active vibration damping and model predictive control, Model Predictive Vibration Control provides a guide through the necessary steps in understanding the founding ideas of predictive control applied in AVC such as: ·         the implementation of ...

  13. SPECIES DIVERSITY AND STABILITY OF BIRD COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matsyura M.V.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available When comparing the suggested stability indicators, we obtained statistically significant correlations for indicators of annual stability of species and total number and standard deviation of the logarithm of the number. Annual Stability Index can be applied with a high degree of reliability as a characteristic of the averaged structure of the community and its pyramid of abundances. The results of correlation analysis confirm our assumptions about the correlation between stability over the years and indices of species diversity and relative uniformity.The final task of the study was to create a mathematical model of stability, where the independent variables are the indices of species diversity. The calculation of these indices allows forecasting birds’ community stability. According to the result of multiple regression for the indicators of diversity and stability of the breeding birds’ community highest correlation coefficients were obtained fro Shannon index and Simpson's dominance Index.Community stability could be determined by its overall species diversity. When considering the stability of community its diversity should be considered as a combination of uniformity of their total number and number of species. The most suitable predictors for the community stability were the nonparametric index of dominance and information-statistical indices, since they considered simultaneously evenness and richness. The community stability is subject of the complexity of its internal communications pattern.

  14. Incorporation of the variation in conductivity with burnup in the stability of code predictive LAPUR; Incroporacion de la variacion de la conductividad con el quemado en el codigo de estabilidad predictivo LAPUR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escriba, A.; Munoz-cobo, J. L.; Merino, R.; Melara, J.; Albendea, M.

    2013-07-01

    In the field of nuclear safety, the analysis of the stability of boiling water reactors is one of the biggest challenges for researchers. LAPUR code that allows to obtain the parameters of stability of the plant (Decay rate and frequency), being one of the programs used by IBERDROLA can be used for these calculations. With the collaboration of the research group TIN of the Polytechnic University of Valencia, a model of loss of conductivity of uranium has joined with the burned LAPUR. This update allows you to play the phenomenon in a more realistic way. This improvement has been validated and verified contrasting results with reference values.

  15. Plutonium inventories for stabilization and stabilized materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, A.K.

    1996-05-01

    The objective of the breakout session was to identify characteristics of materials containing plutonium, the need to stabilize these materials for storage, and plans to accomplish the stabilization activities. All current stabilization activities are driven by the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Recommendation 94-1 (May 26, 1994) and by the recently completed Plutonium ES&H Vulnerability Assessment (DOE-EH-0415). The Implementation Plan for accomplishing stabilization of plutonium-bearing residues in response to the Recommendation and the Assessment was published by DOE on February 28, 1995. This Implementation Plan (IP) commits to stabilizing problem materials within 3 years, and stabilizing all other materials within 8 years. The IP identifies approximately 20 metric tons of plutonium requiring stabilization and/or repackaging. A further breakdown shows this material to consist of 8.5 metric tons of plutonium metal and alloys, 5.5 metric tons of plutonium as oxide, and 6 metric tons of plutonium as residues. Stabilization of the metal and oxide categories containing greater than 50 weight percent plutonium is covered by DOE Standard {open_quotes}Criteria for Safe Storage of Plutonium Metals and Oxides{close_quotes} December, 1994 (DOE-STD-3013-94). This standard establishes criteria for safe storage of stabilized plutonium metals and oxides for up to 50 years. Each of the DOE sites and contractors with large plutonium inventories has either started or is preparing to start stabilization activities to meet these criteria.

  16. Trapped particle stability for the kinetic stabilizer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, H. L.; Pratt, J.

    2011-08-01

    A kinetically stabilized axially symmetric tandem mirror (KSTM) uses the momentum flux of low-energy, unconfined particles that sample only the outer end-regions of the mirror plugs, where large favourable field-line curvature exists. The window of operation is determined for achieving magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability with tolerable energy drain from the kinetic stabilizer. Then MHD stable systems are analysed for stability of the trapped particle mode. This mode is characterized by the detachment of the central-cell plasma from the kinetic-stabilizer region without inducing field-line bending. Stability of the trapped particle mode is sensitive to the electron connection between the stabilizer and the end plug. It is found that the stability condition for the trapped particle mode is more constraining than the stability condition for the MHD mode, and it is challenging to satisfy the required power constraint. Furthermore, a severe power drain may arise from the necessary connection of low-energy electrons in the kinetic stabilizer to the central region.

  17. Analytic Model Predictive Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems: A Fuzzy Adaptive Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Peng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive control method is proposed in this paper for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. Specifically, invoking the standard results from the Moore-Penrose inverse of matrix, the unmatched problem which exists commonly in input and output dimensions of systems is firstly solved. Then, recurring to analytic model predictive control law, combined with fuzzy adaptive approach, the fuzzy adaptive predictive controller synthesis for the underlying systems is developed. To further reduce the impact of fuzzy approximation error on the system and improve the robustness of the system, the robust compensation term is introduced. It is shown that by applying the fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive controller the rudder roll stabilization system is ultimately uniformly bounded stabilized in the H-infinity sense. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. Aeroelastic Stability of a 2D Airfoil Section equipped with a Trailing Edge Flap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergami, Leonardo

    Recent studies conclude that important reduction of the fatigue loads encountered by a wind turbine blade can be achieved using a deformable trailing edge control system. The focus of the current work is to determine the effect of this flap-like system on the aeroelastic stability of a 2D airfoil...... section. A simulation tool is implemented to predict the flow speed at which a flap equipped section may become unstable, either due to flutter or divergence. First, the stability limits of the airfoil without flap are determined, and, in the second part of the work, a deformable trailing edge flap...... is applied. Stability is investigated for the uncontrolled flap, and for three different control algorithms. The three controls are tuned for fatigue load alleviation and they are based on, respectively, measurement of the heave displacement and velocity, measurement of the local angle of attack, measurement...

  19. On geometry-dependent vortex stability and topological spin excitations on curved surfaces with cylindrical symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho-Santos, V.L.; Apolonio, F.A.; Oliveira-Neto, N.M.

    2013-01-01

    We study the Heisenberg model on cylindrically symmetric curved surfaces. Two kinds of excitations are considered. The first is given by the isotropic regime, yielding the sine-Gordon equation and π solitons are predicted. The second one is given by the XY model, leading to a vortex turning around the surface. Helical states are also considered, however, topological arguments cannot be used to ensure its stability. The energy and the anisotropy parameter which stabilizes the vortex state are explicitly calculated for two surfaces: catenoid and hyperboloid. The results show that the anisotropy and the vortex energy depends on the underlying geometry. -- Highlights: •Applying the anisotropic Heisenberg model on curved surfaces. •Appearance of topological solitons on curved surfaces with cylindrical symmetry. •Calculus of the vortex energy, which depends on curvature. •Discussion on features of non-topological helical-like states. •Vortex stability ensured by the anisotropy parameter value

  20. The Chemical Percolation Devolatilization Model Applied to the Devolatilization of Coal in High Intensity Acoustic Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veras Carlos A. G.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemical percolation devolatilization model (CPD was extended for the prediction of drying and devolatilization of coal particles in high intensity acoustic fields found in Rijke tube reactors. The acoustic oscillations enhance the heat and mass transfer processes in the fuel bed as well as in the freeboard, above the grate. The results from simulations in a Rijke tube combustor have shown an increase in the rate of water evaporation and thermal degradation of the particles. The devolatilization model, based on chemical percolation, applied in pulsating regime allowed the dynamic prediction on the yields of CO, CO2, CH4, H2O, other light gases as well as tar which are important on ignition and stabilization of flames. The model predicted the quantity and form of nitrogen containing species generated during devolatilization, for which knowledge is strategically indispensable for reducing pollutant emissions (NOx in flames under acoustic excitation .