WorldWideScience

Sample records for spot markets fiat

  1. La Fiat e la AutoVAZ di Togliatti. Alla ricerca del fordismo perduto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Fava

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1966 Vittorio Valletta, Fiat president, and the representatives of the Soviet Government signed the agreement that led to the building of the VAZ -Volzhsky Avtomobilny Zavod, a gigantic automobile plant. The Fiat-Soviet plant fostered the entrance of the Soviet Union (USSR in the «Automotive Century» and gave place to the first massive East-West transfer of technology and knowledge in the automobile sector of the century. The paper underscores the reasons of Fiat interest in the Soviet market, underlying how the deal had been coordinated with the Italian entrepreneurial elites and partially backed by the American Administration. Furthermore, the paper sheds light on the channels that Fiat used to enter in the Soviet market - focusing especially Fiat's agent, Piero Savoretti.

  2. General Equilibrium in a Segmented Market Economy with Convex Transaction Cost: Existence, Efficiency, Commodity and Fiat Money

    OpenAIRE

    Starr, Ross M.

    2002-01-01

    This study derives the monetary structure of transactions, the use of commodity or fiat money, endogenously from transaction costs in a segmented market general equilibrium model. Market segmentation means there are separate budget constraints for each transaction: budgets balance in each transaction separately. Transaction costs imply differing bid and ask (selling and buying) prices. The most liquid instruments are those with the lowest proportionate bid/ask spread in equilibrium. Exist...

  3. Spot market for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colhoun, C.

    1982-01-01

    The spot market is always quoted for the price of uranium because little information is available about long-term contracts. A review of the development of spot market prices shows the same price curve swings that occur with all raw materials. Future long-term contracts will probably be lower to reflect spot market prices, which are currently in the real-value range of $30-$35. An upswing in the price of uranium could come in the next few months as utilities begin making purchases and trading from stockpiles. The US, unlike Europe and Japan, has already reached a supply and demand point where the spot market share is increasing. Forecasters cannot project the market price, they can only predict the presence of an oscillating spot or a secondary market. 5 figures

  4. Energy is not Coffee. An assessment of blind spots on energy spot-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jepma, C.J.; Spijker, E.; Van der Gaast, W.; De Jong, F.; Overmars, P.

    2006-01-01

    This study was to be the first in a series of studies on the title subject. It specifically focuses on the differences and similarities with a number of other spot-markets and aims to frame the energy spot markets and their potential development into a broader perspective. Main conclusion is that energy spot-markets differ from several other physical and non-physical spot-markets in many ways. This implies that 'perfect' energy spot-markets may inherently be (much) less perfect than other spot-markets that have approximated the stage of theoretical perfection

  5. Cogeneration at FIAT AVIO (Italy)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantoni, A.

    1991-01-01

    Brief notes are provided on the FIAT (Italy) - Foster Wheeler joint venture to equip about 20 FIAT manufacturing plants with 50 MW(e) combined cycle cogeneration plants which will make use of a gas turbine whose design is based on that of the successful General Electric aeronautic LM 6000 engine. The paper also discusses solutions, e.g., wet and dry methods, being considered for nitrogen ox des control, and cites the need in Italy for the optimization of Government licensing procedures for small and medium sized manufacturing firms opting for on-site power generation through cogeneration plants

  6. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  7. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94... CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets for...

  8. Oil futures and spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samii, M.V.

    1992-01-01

    In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

  9. Fiat or bona fide boundary--a matter of granular perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Vogt

    Full Text Available Distinguishing bona fide (i.e. natural and fiat (i.e. artificial physical boundaries plays a key role for distinguishing natural from artificial material entities and is thus relevant to any scientific formal foundational top-level ontology, as for instance the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO. In BFO, the distinction is essential for demarcating two foundational categories of material entity: object and fiat object part. The commonly used basis for demarcating bona fide from fiat boundary refers to two criteria: (i intrinsic qualities of the boundary bearers (i.e. spatial/physical discontinuity, qualitative heterogeneity and (ii mind-independent existence of the boundary. The resulting distinction of bona fide and fiat boundaries is considered to be categorial and exhaustive.By Referring to various examples from biology, we demonstrate that the hitherto used distinction of boundaries is not categorial: (i spatial/physical discontinuity is a matter of scale and the differentiation of bona fide and fiat boundaries is thus granularity-dependent, and (ii this differentiation is not absolute, but comes in degrees. By reducing the demarcation criteria to mind-independence and by also considering dispositions and historical relations of the bearers of boundaries, instead of only considering their spatio-structural properties, we demonstrate with various examples that spatio-structurally fiat boundaries can nevertheless be mind-independent and in this sense bona fide.We argue that the ontological status of a given boundary is perspective-dependent and that the strictly spatio-structural demarcation criteria follow a static perspective that is ignorant of causality and the dynamics of reality. Based on a distinction of several ontologically independent perspectives, we suggest different types of boundaries and corresponding material entities, including boundaries based on function (locomotion, physiology, ecology, development, reproduction and common history

  10. Interactions between the German Electricity Spot Market and the Reserve Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graeber, Bernhardt

    2005-01-01

    Eight years after market opening, Germany has well established spot and future markets for electricity. Besides OTC and Internet broker platforms the main market place is the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig (EEX) with its spot and future market. Less known is the reserve energy market in Germany. The four German transmission system operators (TSOs) EnBW, EON, RWE and Vattenfall purchase network services on the reserve energy market. Products with specific technical requirements are primary, secondary and tertiary reserve. (Details about the technical requirements and typical means for providing the required services will be presented.) Each TSO organises a separate auction for these products - for primary and secondary reserve half-yearly, for tertiary reserve daily. Due to the technical requirements the liquidity on these markets is limited, but especially on the tertiary reserve market it is recently growing significantly due to new participants marketing several smaller municipal and industrial reserve power plants as combined bids which meet the 30 MW min. capacity requirement. Every power plant or interruptible load could not only be offered as capacity on the reserve market but could also be dispatched for the spot market. Therefore the developments of prices on these markets are not independent and opportunity costs against the spot market can be estimated for different type of plants bidding in the reserve market. Another interaction between reserve and spot market is caused by the balancing price system in Germany. Prices for balancing energy meeting deviations between load, trading balance and production of a market participant are based on quarter-hourly reserve energy costs encountered by the TSO. As unbiased load and production forecasts are not strictly enforced by the TSOs so far, part of the planned demand could be met with balancing energy if EEX spot market prices rise above expected balancing energy prices. This interrelationship has a

  11. The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo; Patrícia Pereira da Silva; Pedro Cerqueira

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the influence of wind power generation on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. We use logit models to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices together with explanatory variables like, wind speed, available transmission capacity and electricity demand. The results show that the probability of market splitting increases with the increase of wind power generation. The European intercon...

  12. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Quotations in bona fide spot markets. 27.96 Section 27... Differences § 27.96 Quotations in bona fide spot markets. The price or value and differences between the price... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in...

  13. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October's total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels

  14. Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid Nainar, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

  15. 78 FR 9330 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-08

    ... Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: The... bona fide cotton spot markets in order to assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and Promotion Act. Updated bona fide spot market definitions will allow for published spot quotes to consider...

  16. MASCEM: EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market integration and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Fernandes, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago

    2015-01-01

    . It is crucial to MASCEM to have the ability to simulate as many market models and player types as possible, thus enhancing the ability to recreate the electricity markets reality in its maximum possible extent. This paper presents the EPEX Spot Day-Ahead market integration in MASCEM. EPEX Spot SE's mission...

  17. Risks versus savings in the international spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karalus, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes the international spot market, some of its risks and difficulties, and examples of the ways potential savings can be realized. Fuel cycle goods and services available in the international spot market include uranium as U 3 O 8 , natural UF 6 , enriched UF 6 , conversion services, and enriching services

  18. Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akinnusi, Ayo

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

  19. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

  20. 7 CFR 27.95 - Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations. 27.95 Section 27.95 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE... and Differences § 27.95 Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations. Every bona fide spot market...

  1. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  2. A new index for electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

    2010-01-01

    Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

  3. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Southwest Markets and the New Mexico counties of Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt and Lea. Desert Southwest The..., Hudspeth and El Paso, all New Mexico counties except those included in the West Texas market, all counties... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93...

  4. THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMRAH İSMAİL ÇEVİK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB. Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996 is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

  5. Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

  6. Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

  7. Effects of series compensation on spot price power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, G.B.; Wang Feng

    2005-01-01

    The operation of a deregulated power market becomes more complex as the generation scheduling is dependent on suppliers' and consumers' bids. With large number of transactions in the power market changing in time, it is more likely for some transmission lines to face congestion. Series compensation, such as TCSC, with its ability to directly control the power flow can be very helpful to improve the operation of transmission networks. The effects of TCSC on the operation of a spot price power market are studied in this paper using the modified IEEE 14-bus system. Optimal Power Flow incorporating TCSC is used to implement the spot price market. Linear bids are used to model suppliers' and consumers' bids. Issues of location and cost of TCSC are discussed. The effects of levels of TCSC compensation on wide range of system quantities are studied. The effects on the total social benefit, the spot prices, transmission congestion, total generation and consumption, benefit to individual supplier and consumer etc. are discussed. It is demonstrated that though use of TCSC makes the system more efficient and augments competition in the market, it is not easy to establish general relationships between the levels of compensation and various market quantities. Simulation studies like these can be used to assess the effects of TCSC in specific systems. (Author)

  8. The 1996 uranium spot market: Low volume, prices spiral upward then downward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the 1996 uranium spot market is provided. The market was characterized by an overall decrease in uranium demand coupled with dramatically rising prices from January to July. Prices declined steadily during the second half of the year. Factors affecting price fall and historical spot market data are presented

  9. 1997 begins quietly in the spot market as prices continue to drop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in January 1997 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  10. Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, Christoph; Wozabal, David

    2013-01-01

    The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation. -- Highlights: •We investigate the efficiency of the German spot market for electricity. •We employ a conjectural variations approach and a fundamental market model. •Peak load hours and base load hours are analyzed separately. •We find that the market was competitive from 2007 to 2010 for both base and peak hours. •Policies to promote market transparency in Germany can be regarded as successful

  11. Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

  12. FIAT-i juht : maailma jääb alles vaid kuus suurt autotootjat / Erik Aru

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Aru, Erik

    2008-01-01

    FIAT-i tegevjuhi Sergio Marchionne hinnangul jääb kriisi lõpuks alles üks Ameerika, üks Saksa, üks Prantsuse, üks Hiina ja üks võimalik üleeuroopaline autotootja. Analüütik Jürgen Pieperi hinnangul on kõige haavatavamad FIAT, BMW ja PSA/Peugeot-Citroen, alles jäävad VW, Renault-Nissan ja Daimler

  13. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  14. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

  15. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  16. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

  17. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

  18. The spot market and the spot price: applicability and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, G. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The subject of spot prices and their relationship to long-term contracting is addressed. The author is associated with Nuexco, which originally was called the Nuclear Exchange Corporation. They use the term Exchange Value which originated in the idea that Nuexco operated an exchange 'bank' - those with too much uranium could 'bank it', those with short-term needs could borrow from the 'bank'. If the borrower repaid slightly more or less the difference was settled using the 'exchange value'. This became used for longer-term transactions and now settling the monthly value is an important part of Nuexco's activities. The exact nature of the Exchange Value is defined. Now more and more buyers are insisting on spot market related pricing even where this is not meaningfully related to uranium production costs. (U.K.)

  19. Economic Dispatch of Hydrogen Systems in Energy Spot Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Nørgård, Per Bromand

    2015-01-01

    of energy spot markets. The generic hydrogen system is comprised of an electrolysis for hydrogen production, a hydrogen storage tank and a fuel cell system for cogeneration of electricity and heat. A case study is presented with information from practical hydrogen systems and the Nordic energy markets...

  20. Investigate Volatility Jumps in Chinese Stock Index Future and Spot Markets Based on Realized Volatility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang qiang

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate Chinese stock index future and spot market's volatility jumps characteristics by using recentlydeveloped jumpstest(Barndorff-Nielsenand Shephard,2004).Thedataisoneyearhigh frequencydatafromthe period19/04/2012 to 19/04/2013. The empirical results show two important points. Firstly, the logarithm of adjusted realized volatility shows a high degree of autocorrelation and folows a normal distribution nearly perfect. These characteristics show a potential high forecast ability. Secondly,thedailyrealizedvolatilityjumpsshowalowdegreeofautocorrealtionbutwithsignificantvolatilityclusters.Ingeneral,thejumps component has a low percentage in realized volatility estimation for both future and spot market. On average, there is one significant jumpswithinevery ten continue trading days.Spotmarkets showshigherdegree of jumps,anda rapidly jumpscharacterises.It implies that jumps may transmission from spot to future market, and spot market dominate future market at some degree.

  1. Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

  2. Optimal methodology for a machining process scheduling in spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusta, J.M.; Torres, F.; Khodr, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity spot markets have introduced hourly variations in the price of electricity. These variations allow the increase of the energy efficiency by the appropriate scheduling and adaptation of the industrial production to the hourly cost of electricity in order to obtain the maximum profit for the industry. In this article a mathematical optimization model simulates costs and the electricity demand of a machining process. The resultant problem is solved using the generalized reduced gradient approach, to find the optimum production schedule that maximizes the industry profit considering the hourly variations of the price of electricity in the spot market. Different price scenarios are studied to analyze the impact of the spot market prices for electricity on the optimal scheduling of the machining process and on the industry profit. The convenience of the application of the proposed model is shown especially in cases of very high electricity prices.

  3. The market value and impact of offshore wind on the electricity spot market: Evidence from Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ederer, Nikolaus

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Market value of offshore wind based on feed-in and weather data is assessed. • Merit order effect caused by wind energy is simulated for 2006–2014. • Results indicate same impact of on- and offshore wind on market price and value. • Steadier wind resource offshore imposes less variability on market price. • Characteristic of variable wind feed-in cannot be blamed for price deterioration. - Abstract: Although the expansion of offshore wind has recently increased in Germany, as in other countries, it is still forced to defend its role in long-term energy policy plans, particularly against its onshore counterpart, to secure future expansion targets and financial support. The objective of this article is to investigate the economic effects of offshore wind on the electricity spot market and thus open up another perspective that has not been part of the debate about offshore vs. onshore wind thus far. A comprehensive assessment based on a large amount of market, feed-in and weather data in Germany revealed that the market value of offshore wind is generally higher than that of onshore wind. Simulating the merit order effect on the German day-ahead electricity market for the short term and long term in the years 2006–2014 aimed to identify the reason for this observation and show whether it is also an indication of a lower impact on the electricity spot market due to a steadier wind resource prevailing offshore. Although the results suggest no difference regarding the impact on market price and value, they indeed reveal that offshore wind imposes less variability on the spot market price than onshore wind. In addition, the long-term simulation proved that the ongoing price deterioration cannot be blamed on the characteristic of variable wind production

  4. The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

  5. Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

  6. Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da; Cerqueira, Pedro A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. Iberia stands as an ideal case-study, where the high level deployment of wind power is observed, together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the Portuguese and the Spanish spot electricity markets. Logit and non-parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power, together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand. Logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour, and then, notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge, a non-parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models. Results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or, more generally, with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation. The European interconnection capacity target of 10% of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration. Therefore, pro-active coordination policies, governing both interconnections and renewables deployment, should be further developed. -- Highlights: •Assess determinants on market splitting behaviour of Iberian electricity markets. •Logit and non-parametric models to express market splitting probability response. •Explanatory variables: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power; ATC and demand. •Results: increase of market splitting probability with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity. •Coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment

  7. Seasonality in cocoa spot and forward markets: empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sarfo, S.; Geman, Hélyette

    2012-01-01

    This paper first describes the main features of supply and demand in cocoa spot markets. A state- variable model is proposed to describe the random evolution of cocoa forward curves over time, which essentially adapts to agricultural commodities, introduced by Borovkova and Geman (2006) for energy. In contrast to most of the literature on the subject, the first state variable is not the spot price, as it combines seasonal and stochastic features and may not be observable, instead, the average...

  8. Influence of TCSC on congestion and spot price in electricity market with bilateral contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acharya, Naresh; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effect of TCSC on congestion and spot price in deregulated electricity markets. The paper could also be considered as a comprehensive tutorial on the influence of TCSC in electricity market. A voluntary pool market, where the market participants can trade electricity either via a pool or through bilateral contracts is considered. The electricity market is modeled in an optimal power flow framework with the objective of maximizing the social welfare. In such formulation, the Lagrange operators associated with the equality constraints associated with real power balance give the spot prices of energy at each bus of the system. Studies are carried out with and without TCSC at peak and low loading conditions to capture the influence and to see the effectiveness of TCSC at different loading conditions. The paper further explores the effect of TCSC compensation level on the spot prices and the congestion under varying pool and bilateral loading conditions. A 5-bus test system is used for numerical studies and to showcase the influence of TCSC in an electricity market environment. (author)

  9. Production Contracts and the Spot Market Price of Hogs

    OpenAIRE

    Key, Nigel D.

    2010-01-01

    The increasing use of production contracts in the hog sector has reduced the number of spot market transactions, raised concerns about price manipulation and helped to spur legislation requiring price reporting by packers. Using data from the 2002 and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, this study looks for evidence of market manipulation by examining whether the local prevalence of contracting affects the average price received by independent producers. The empirical approach uses a fixed-effects ...

  10. Research on spot power market equilibrium model considering the electric power network characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chengmin; Jiang, Chuanwen; Chen, Qiming

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium is the optimum operational condition for the power market by economics rule. A realistic spot power market cannot achieve the equilibrium condition due to network losses and congestions. The impact of the network losses and congestion on spot power market is analyzed in this paper in order to establish a new equilibrium model considering the network loss and transmission constraints. The OPF problem formulated according to the new equilibrium model is solved by means of the equal price principle. A case study on the IEEE-30-bus system is provided in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

  11. Improving interpretation of publically reported statistics on health and healthcare: the Figure Interpretation Assessment Tool (FIAT-Health).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrits, Reinie G; Kringos, Dionne S; van den Berg, Michael J; Klazinga, Niek S

    2018-03-07

    Policy-makers, managers, scientists, patients and the general public are confronted daily with figures on health and healthcare through public reporting in newspapers, webpages and press releases. However, information on the key characteristics of these figures necessary for their correct interpretation is often not adequately communicated, which can lead to misinterpretation and misinformed decision-making. The objective of this research was to map the key characteristics relevant to the interpretation of figures on health and healthcare, and to develop a Figure Interpretation Assessment Tool-Health (FIAT-Health) through which figures on health and healthcare can be systematically assessed, allowing for a better interpretation of these figures. The abovementioned key characteristics of figures on health and healthcare were identified through systematic expert consultations in the Netherlands on four topic categories of figures, namely morbidity, healthcare expenditure, healthcare outcomes and lifestyle. The identified characteristics were used as a frame for the development of the FIAT-Health. Development of the tool and its content was supported and validated through regular review by a sounding board of potential users. Identified characteristics relevant for the interpretation of figures in the four categories relate to the figures' origin, credibility, expression, subject matter, population and geographical focus, time period, and underlying data collection methods. The characteristics were translated into a set of 13 dichotomous and 4-point Likert scale questions constituting the FIAT-Health, and two final assessment statements. Users of the FIAT-Health were provided with a summary overview of their answers to support a final assessment of the correctness of a figure and the appropriateness of its reporting. FIAT-Health can support policy-makers, managers, scientists, patients and the general public to systematically assess the quality of publicly reported

  12. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  13. New types of contracts. Part 2. The natural gas spot market. Many options, many constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    In two articles, new types of contracts such as swaps, futures and spot contracts are surveyed. How far has the Dutch liberalised market developed in this field? This article focuses on the spot market for gas, whilst in the previous issue attention was paid to the electricity market. Bilateral spot contracts have been used in the Netherlands for years and years. The only gas exchange in Europe, the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), was established in London, UK, at the end of 1994. This is a screen exchange, just like the APX (Amsterdam Power Exchange), where natural gas traders can enter into various types of contracts. An organised gas exchange has as yet not been established on the continent. The most suitable candidate is Zeebrugge in Belgium, where all the large players are represented. To do so, however, more transparency is required on the transmission market so that supply and demand can find each other quickly at standard conditions

  14. Underdeveloped spot markets and futures trading: The Soya Oil exchange in India

    OpenAIRE

    Bharat Ramaswami; Jatinder Bir Singh

    2006-01-01

    Abstract The limited presence of futures exchanges in developing countries where commodity markets fall short of the ideal underscore the importance of understanding the relation between spot and futures markets. The paper examines the exceptional success of the soya oil contract at the National Board of Trade (NBOT) in India. The paper asks whether the NBOT contract exhibits the fundamental features of mature futures markets in terms of its use by hedgers. If the market offers arbitrage oppo...

  15. Los spots factor, esencial del marketing político

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María de Jesús Origel Gutiérrez

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available EI objetivo del presente trabajo es demostrar que en las elecciones presidenciales de julio de 2000, la forma de hacer política en México se modificó al introducir en las campanas electorales el marketing político y nuevas estrategias de comunicación, en especial los spots televisivos

  16. Pre-announcements of price increase intentions in liner shipping spot markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; Rytter, Niels G M; Jiang, Liping

    2017-01-01

    competition perspective, which will indirectly indicate whether carriers are able to manipulate spot rates following GRI announcements. Taking the Far East–North Europe trade between 2009 and 2013 as an example, the paper first reveals the gradual increase of GRI frequency and size, which reflects carriers...... factors, in sequence of explanation power, are the total capacity of GRI carriers, the idling fleet size, the spot rate level, and the average ship-loading factor. Clearly the latter three factors are market fundamentals, which are unlikely to be influenced by an individual carrier in the short term....... In actual fact, the conclusion reached is that there is little evidence that carriers can manipulate and distort spot rates through GRIs...

  17. Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R.

    2006-01-01

    Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  18. Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R. [Konkuk Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2006-07-01

    Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs.

  19. Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

  20. Legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retsch, Alexander T.

    2014-01-01

    The thesis on legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading include the discussion of the following issues: market abuse, its forms of appearance (market manipulation, insider trade, insider information), electricity spot trading, relevant legislative frame, market abuse regulations (WpHG), interdiction of market manipulation and related regulations.

  1. New types of contracts. Part 1. Too high prices on the spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    In two articles, the state of the art of new types of contract such as swaps, futures and spot contracts is covered. What is the situation of the Dutch deregulating market in this respect? In this first article the focus is on the spot market for electricity, while the second article in the next month's issue will deal with the gas market. Four foreign brokers are active in the Dutch electricity market in addition to Amsterdam Power Exchange (APX). The four major power producing companies, being subject to a Protocol, are not allowed to trade their power directly on the APX. That's why most of the power traded through the APX comes from outside the Netherlands. Thus, the foreign brokers complement the service package of the APX

  2. Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

  3. Analysis of M-stationary points to an EPEC modeling oligopolistic competition in an electricity spot market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Henrion, R.; Outrata, Jiří; Surowiec, T.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 2 (2012), s. 295-317 ISSN 1292-8119 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/09/1957 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints * EPEC * M-stationary solutions * electricity spot market * calmness Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/outrata-analysis of m-stationary points to an epec modeling oligopolistic competition in an electricity spot market.pdf

  4. Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Borhan-Azad, Lida

    2006-01-01

    This dissertation aimed at testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak and semi-strong form using data on the black market spot exchange rates between Iranian currency (i.e., Rial) and four major foreign currencies including US Dollar, German Mark/Euro, UK Pound and Japanese Yen. The weak form efficiency is examined by unit root tests including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979, 1981) (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (1988) (PP) test. The results of these tests are con...

  5. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  6. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  7. Competition in electricity spot markets. Economic theory and international experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David

    1998-09-01

    This publication gives a survey of economic theory and international experience connected to electricity spot markets. The main purpose is to consider the attempts that have been made to apply economic theory and empirical methods to the analysis of electricity markets, and to evaluate them in light of theoretical considerations and empirical evidence. The publication describes in simple terms the basic pool pricing mechanism, and experience with pools in a number of countries. It is worth emphasizing that it is not the purpose to treat in extensive detail the structure of electricity pools around the world. Key factors of the markets in England and Wales, Norway and Australia are described in order to allow for a comparison of design issues and evaluation of competitive performance. 80 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  8. Gerenciamento de risco cambial na Fiat Automóveis S/A com utilização de hedge sem caixa

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Marcus Vinicius Soares

    2003-01-01

    Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção. Este estudo objetivou investigar o processo de gerenciamento de riscos cambial na Fiat Automóveis S/A com utilização de hedge. Tal objetivo evidencia o tipo de pesquisa realizada que caracteriza como sendo exploratório, seguindo o método do estudo de caso. Os dados foram obtidos no Balanço Patrimonial da Fiat Automóveis de 1999, através de fonte primária...

  9. Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent advances in modeling causal flows with time series analysis are used to study relationships among eight North American natural gas spot market prices. Results indicate that the Canadian and US natural gas market is a single highly integrated market. Further results indicate that price discovery tends to reflect both regions of excess demand and supply. Across North America, Malin Hub in Oregon, Chicago Hub, Illinois, Waha, Texas, and Henry Hub, Louisiana region, are the most important markets for price discovery. Opal Hub in Wyoming is an information sink in contemporaneous time, receiving price information but passing on no price information. AECO Hub in Alberta, Canada, receives price signals from several markets and passes on information to Opal and the Oklahoma region. (author)

  10. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  11. Validity of urinary monoamine assay sales under the "spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Uncini, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Spot baseline urinary monoamine assays have been used in medicine for over 50 years as a screening test for monoamine-secreting tumors, such as pheochromocytoma and carcinoid syndrome. In these disease states, when the result of a spot baseline monoamine assay is above the specific value set by the laboratory, it is an indication to obtain a 24-hour urine sample to make a definitive diagnosis. There are no defined applications where spot baseline urinary monoamine assays can be used to diagnose disease or other states directly. No peer-reviewed published original research exists which demonstrates that these assays are valid in the treatment of individual patients in the clinical setting. Since 2001, urinary monoamine assay sales have been promoted for numerous applications under the "spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model". There is no published peer-reviewed original research that defines the scientific foundation upon which the claims for these assays are made. On the contrary, several articles have been published that discredit various aspects of the model. To fill the void, this manuscript is a comprehensive review of the scientific foundation and claims put forth by laboratories selling urinary monoamine assays under the spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model.

  12. ANÁLISE ESTRATÉGICA DAS ÁREAS DE MARKETING E FINANÇAS NO PROCESSO DE FORMAÇÃO E MANUTENÇÃO DOS PREÇOS: O CASO DA MONTADORA FIAT AUTOMÓVEIS S.A. [doi: 10.5329/RECADM.20060501006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulisses Procópio Pascoal Torres

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available ResumoQuando profissionais de estratégias empresariais definem o preço de um produto, nem sempre levam emconsideração fatores importantes para os consumidores. Diante de tal cenário, é possível pensar nanecessidade de as empresas elaborarem os seus preços baseados em custos, ou na concorrência, ou mesmo,no valor para o cliente. O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar as estratégias utilizadas pelos departamentos deMarketing e Finanças da Fiat Automóveis na formação dos preços de veículos 0 Km. Trata-se de um estudo decaso, onde foram efetuadas entrevistas semi-estruturadas com colaboradores dos departamentos de Marketinge Controle no intuito de relacionar as ferramentas utilizadas para análise e verificar o grau de coerênciaexistente entre as estratégias utilizadas, destacando alguns pontos negativos que contribuem para a destruiçãode valor. O estudo demonstra a visão dos setores envolvidos na formação e manutenção dos preços,apresentando como resultado a importância da sinergia entre esses departamentos..Palavras-chave: estratégia, preço, processo.AbstractWhen professionals of managerial strategies define the price of a product, not always they take in considerationimportant factors for the consumers. In the context, it is possible to think in the need of the companies toelaborate your prices based on costs, or in the competition, or even, in the value for the customer. The objectiveof this work is to analyze the strategies used by the departments of Marketing and Finances of Fiat Automóveisin the formation and maintenance of the prices of vehicles 0 Km. It is a case study, where interviews were madesemi-structured with collaborators of the departments of Marketing and Control in the intention of relating thetools used for analysis and to verify the degree of existent coherence among the used strategies, some negativepoints that contribute to the destruction of value highlighting. The study demonstrates the vision

  13. Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diongue, Abdou Ka; Guegan, Dominique; Vignal, Bertrand

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we investigate conditional mean and conditional variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. Particularly, we provide the analytical expression of the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000-December 31, 2002 and we test spot prices forecasts until one-month ahead forecast. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA-GARCH benchmark model using the year 2003 as the out-of-sample. The proposed model outperforms clearly the benchmark model. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria. (author)

  14. SMART II : the spot market agent research tool version 2.0.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    North, M. J. N.

    2000-12-14

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has worked closely with Western Area Power Administration (Western) over many years to develop a variety of electric power marketing and transmission system models that are being used for ongoing system planning and operation as well as analytic studies. Western markets and delivers reliable, cost-based electric power from 56 power plants to millions of consumers in 15 states. The Spot Market Agent Research Tool Version 2.0 (SMART II) is an investigative system that partially implements some important components of several existing ANL linear programming models, including some used by Western. SMART II does not implement a complete model of the Western utility system but it does include several salient features of this network for exploratory purposes. SMART II uses a Swarm agent-based framework. SMART II agents model bulk electric power transaction dynamics with recognition for marginal costs as well as transmission and generation constraints. SMART II uses a sparse graph of nodes and links to model the electric power spot market. The nodes represent power generators and consumers with distinct marginal decision curves and varying investment capital as well individual learning parameters. The links represent transmission lines with individual capacities taken from a range of central distribution, outlying distribution and feeder line types. The application of SMART II to electric power systems studies has produced useful results different from those often found using more traditional techniques. Use of the advanced features offered by the Swarm modeling environment simplified the creation of the SMART II model.

  15. Exchange Rates’ Effect on Spot and Futures Equity Index Markets: A Study on Borsa Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayben Koy

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the linkages between the foreign exchange rates, spot equity index and equity index futures. The study aims to investi-gate whether there is difference between the spot and futures markets in the scope of relation with the foreign exchange rates’ returns and which leads the other. The relationships are examined by using the vector autoregression (VAR model, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition and Granger Causality tests. The sample of the study consists of US dollar to Turkish Lira rate (USD/TRY, Euro to Turkish Lira rate (EUR/TRY, BIST 30 Index and BIST 30 Index Futures. The data of the study includes the period between January 2011 and December 2014 with daily data range. Our results have evidence that the foreign exchange rate markets in Turkey are driven by the equity market.

  16. A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkoulas, John T.; Chakraborty, Atreya; Ouandlous, Arav

    2012-01-01

    We test whether the spot price of crude oil is determined by stochastic rules or exhibits deterministic endogenous fluctuations. In our analysis, we employ both metric (correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponents) and topological (recurrence plots) diagnostic tools for chaotic dynamics. We find that the underlying system for crude oil spot prices (i) is of high dimensionality (no stabilization of the correlation dimension), (ii) does not exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and (iii) is not characterized by the recurrence property. Thus, the empirical evidence suggests that stochastic rather than deterministic rules are present in the system dynamics of the crude oil spot market. Recurrent plot analysis indicates that volatility clustering is an adequate, but not complete, explanation of the morphology of oil spot prices. - Highlights: ► We test whether the spot price of crude oil exhibits deterministic chaos. ► We employ both metric and topological diagnostic tools for chaos. ► Stochastic rules appear to govern the temporal evolution of oil prices. ► Volatility clustering explains the morphology of oil prices largely, but not entirely.

  17. High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, Nicholas J.; Boerema, Nicholas D.; MacGill, Iain F.; Outhred, Hugh R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations. - Highlights: → In South Australia (SA) wind generation is having an influence on market prices. → Little or no correlation is found between wind generation and demand. → Wind farms in SA are receiving a lower average price than in other States. → The results highlight the importance of appropriate electricity market design.

  18. The 1995 uranium spot market: Rising volume - rising prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    1995 Uranium Spot Market volume increased by 7.8 million lbs U308 equivalent from 1994 levels to over 42.1 million lbs U308 equivalent the largest since 1991. This increased volume was accompanied by increased prices. The restricted market price rose by over $2.20/lb U308 from the January range of $9.75-$10.00 per lb U308 to the December range of $11.95-$12.25 per pound U308. The unrestricted market price rose by over $2.65/lb U308 from the January range of $7.15-$7.30 per lb U308 to the December range of $9.80-$10.15 per pound U308. Unrestricted prices rose at a relatively steady pace each month for the first half of the year and at a greater pace through the second half of the year, while restricted prices rose faster during the first half of the year and leveled out during the second half of the year. The result was a partial closure of the gap between restricted and unrestricted prices

  19. Volume higher; spot price ranges widen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October 1994 uranium market summary. During this reporting period, volume on the spot concentrates market doubled. Twelve deals took place: three in the spot concentrates market, one in the medium and long-term market, four in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. The restricted price range widened due to higher prices at the top end of the range, while the unrestricted price range widened because of lower prices at the bottom end. Spot conversion prices were higher, and enrichment prices were unchanged

  20. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  1. Informational Efficiency in the USD/KRW Spot Market: Some Evidence from a Joint Runs Test and Foreigners’ Trading Rule Profits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changmo Ahn

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the USD/KRW spot market is efficient in processing new information by employing both the Runs Test and the foreigners' securities trading rule profitability approach. Excluding the period of 2008 financial crisis, the USD/KRW spot market is efficient in terms of close rates, but not efficient in terms of open rates. The foreigners' securities trading rule can also produce statistically significant profits if the trades are based on open prices, though not high. This implies that traders can predict future exchange rates, to some degree, with the information on foreign net purchases of securities in the Korean stock/ bond markets. If we consider the related interest differentials and transaction costs, however, the profits fade out to marginal level or below. This result implies that traders can expect the existence of predictability in the USD/KRW spot market, but not profitability.

  2. Feast or famine: 1992 spot market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    There was nothing temperate about the uranium spot market in 1992. It was a year of extremes. Demand took off at a brisk pace early in the year as utilities, enticed by low U3O8 prices and interest rates, stepped up their discretionary purchases. With the NUKEM price range sinking to an all-time low of US$6.75-7.70 in November 1991, utilities reckoned that prices had bottomed out and decided to buy and hold material. Indeed, the upper end of NUKEM's range remained below $8.00 per lb for much of the first half of 1992. The main cause of low prices was the flood of imports from the crumbling Soviet Union and its successor, the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]. The CIS republics quickly embraced a free-market philosophy to boost their faltering economies, and several hoped to use uranium as a source of badly-needed hard currency. But they were about to get a harsh introduction to capitalism. It came in the form of government intervention, in both the US and Europe. In May, the US Department of Commerce made its preliminary determination that the uranium-producing republics of the CIS were selling material in the US at less than fair market value. The antidumping case was eventually settled in October when the CIS republics [Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan] signed suspension agreements subjecting CIS origin uranium to price and quantity quotas in the US

  3. Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herguera, Inigo

    2000-01-01

    The performance of the futures and the spot market for electricity in England and Wales (EW) and in the Nordic countries have significant differences in terms of volumes traded and evolution of prices. Even though the institutional arrangements show significant differences and the data collected has important limitations we observe in EW for 1990-199 that as the coverage via bilateral contracts diminished, spot prices tended to increase, there was higher price volatility and an increasing number of plants were declared unavailable. In the NordPool, by contrast, market structure is more distributed, the bilateral contract price has tended to smooth the volatility in the spot price and a very diverse pattern behavior of prices has been observed. We interpret these observations as additional support in favor of the theoretical result by and Vila (Journal of Economic Theory 59 (1993) 1), but hint at the possibility of strategies by the firms that can diminish the welfare enhancing properties of this new bilateral market. (Author)

  4. SpotADAPT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaulakiene, Dalia; Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2015-01-01

    by Amazon Web Services (AWS). The users aiming for the spot market are presented with many instance types placed in multiple datacenters in the world, and thus it is difficult to choose the optimal deployment. In this paper, we propose the framework SpotADAPT (Spot-Aware (re-)Deployment of Analytical...... of typical analytical workloads and real spot price traces. SpotADAPT's suggested deployments are comparable to the theoretically optimal ones, and in particular, it shows good cost benefits for the budget optimization -- on average SpotADAPT is at most 0.3% more expensive than the theoretically optimal...

  5. The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Horowitz, I.; Moore, J.; Pacheco, A.

    2011-01-01

    The literature on renewable energy suggests that an increase in intermittent wind generation would reduce the spot electricity market price by displacing high fuel-cost marginal generation. Taking advantage of a large file of Texas-based 15-min data, we show that while rising wind generation does indeed tend to reduce the level of spot prices, it is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. The key policy implication is that increasing use of price risk management should accompany expanded deployment of wind generation. - Highlights: → Rising wind generation in ERCOT tends to reduce electricity spot prices. → Rising wind generation in ERCOT is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. → Increased price risk management should accompany expanded wind power deployment.

  6. Simulation of diesel engine emissions on the example of Fiat Panda in the NEDC test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botwinska Katarzyna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Road transport may be deemed a strategic branch of modern economy. Unfortunately, a rapid increase in the number of on-road motor vehicles entails some negative consequences as well, for instance, excessive concentration of exhausts produced by engines which results in deterioration of air quality. EURO emission standards which define acceptable limits for exhaust emissions of power units is an example of an activity performed in attempt to improve air quality. The EURO standard defines permissible amount of exhausts produced by a vehicle. Presently new units are examined through NEDC test. For the purpose of this thesis, a virtual test stand in a form of a computer simulation of a chassis dynamometer was used to simulate emission of a diesel engine (compression-ignition engine in the NEDC test. Actual parameters of the 1.3 MultiJet engine of the Fiat Panda passenger car of 2014 were applied in the model. The simulation was carried out in the Matlab Simulink environment. The simulation model of the Fiat Panda passenger car enables the designation of the emission waveform for all test stages which corresponds to the values received during an approval test in real-life conditions.

  7. Simulation of diesel engine emissions on the example of Fiat Panda in the NEDC test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botwinska, Katarzyna; Mruk, Remigiusz; Słoma, Jacek; Tucki, Karol; Zaleski, Mateusz

    2017-10-01

    Road transport may be deemed a strategic branch of modern economy. Unfortunately, a rapid increase in the number of on-road motor vehicles entails some negative consequences as well, for instance, excessive concentration of exhausts produced by engines which results in deterioration of air quality. EURO emission standards which define acceptable limits for exhaust emissions of power units is an example of an activity performed in attempt to improve air quality. The EURO standard defines permissible amount of exhausts produced by a vehicle. Presently new units are examined through NEDC test. For the purpose of this thesis, a virtual test stand in a form of a computer simulation of a chassis dynamometer was used to simulate emission of a diesel engine (compression-ignition engine) in the NEDC test. Actual parameters of the 1.3 MultiJet engine of the Fiat Panda passenger car of 2014 were applied in the model. The simulation was carried out in the Matlab Simulink environment. The simulation model of the Fiat Panda passenger car enables the designation of the emission waveform for all test stages which corresponds to the values received during an approval test in real-life conditions.

  8. A bid solicitation and selection method for developing a competitive spot priced electric market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ancona, J.J.

    1997-01-01

    The electric utility industry is in the beginning throes of a transformation from a cost-based regulated structure to a more market based less regulated system. Traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch methodologies can continue to provide reliable least-cost solutions, providing they are modified to accommodate a larger sphere of market participants. This paper offers a method for an entity such as an Independent System Operator (ISO) to solicit and evaluate bids for developing a spot priced electric market by replicating existing utility practices that are effective and efficient, while creating an open and equitable competitive marketplace for electricity

  9. Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas. A Real-Time Analysis of market integration using the Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siliverstovs, Boriss; Neumann, Anne

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is currently undergoing a liberalization process with the aim of creating a single, unified market. We use time-varying coefficient estimation models, applying the Kalman filter to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has lead to almost perfect price convergence between theses locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the European continent does not seem to be working so far. (Author)

  10. The value of millisecond expiry options in spot foreign exchange markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Stevenson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The spot foreign exchange marketplaces are split into two types by their respective trading rules: markets with conventional resting orders versus markets with resting that orders that include optionality. This optionality is owned by the counterparty who placed the resting order and provides the option to refuse the aggressive order matched against the resting order. This paper describes and contrasts these two types of markets. A valuation method for these very short expiry options on the later marketplace is proposed. Appropriate historical volatility metrics are defined and applied for these uniquely short expiry timescales. These historical volatility and valuation methods are used to describe some historical intraday periods, and are applied to various trading scenarios. Unique behaviors driven by the value of these options are highlighted. The benefits and risks of trading on these markets are described in light of this valuation approach. The effects of various addition constraints on the liquidity providers for these optionality matching marketplaces are introduced. Through judicious timing of order placement and appropriate constraints on the behaviors of the liquidity providers on these markets, the result is shown to be tighter spreads, greater breath and depth of liquidity, and the high fill ratios than the more conventional non-optionality matching markets.

  11. The effect of ethanol listing on corn prices: Evidence from spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Rıza; Kutan, Ali M.; Shen, Fanglin

    2012-01-01

    The use of corn for ethanol has been the topic of heated discussions in the media and among policy makers. As part of this debate, some observers have argued that the use of corn in the production of ethanol has had adverse effects on corn prices. This paper contributes to this reviving debate by examining the impact of the listing of ethanol futures in the Chicago Board of Trade on the spot and futures prices for corn. We find a significant listing effect, indicating that the listing of ethanol has had a positive contribution to both price and volatility in the corn market, especially in the spot and the shorter maturity futures contracts, and mostly through its interaction with trading volume in the corn market. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for investors and its relevance for the ongoing debate on US energy policy. We conclude with some suggestions for future research.

  12. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  13. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  14. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  15. On the Non-malleability of the Fiat-Shamir Transform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faust, Sebastian; Kohlweiss, Markulf; Marson, Giorgia Azzurra

    2012-01-01

    , in the ROM, we obtain truly efficient non malleable NIZK proof systems essentially for free. Our definitions are sufficient for instantiating the Naor-Yung paradigm for CCA2-secure encryption, as well as a generic construction for signature schemes from hard relations and simulation-extractable NIZK proof...... systems. These two constructions are interesting as the former preserves both the leakage resilience and key-dependent message security of the underlying CPA-secure encryption scheme, while the latter lifts the leakage resilience of the hard relation to the leakage resilience of the resulting signature......The Fiat-Shamir transform is a well studied paradigm for removing interaction from public-coin protocols. We investigate whether the resulting non-interactive zero-knowledge (NIZK) proof systems also exhibit non-malleability properties that have up to now only been studied for NIZK proof systems...

  16. Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

    2016-01-01

    electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

  17. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  18. On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Tim; Luther, Joachim

    2004-01-01

    Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity

  19. On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.; Luther, J.

    2004-01-01

    Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity. (Author)

  20. Volume dips; spot price ranges narrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. Volume in the spot concentrates market fell below 1 million lbs U3O8. In total, twelve deals took place compared to 28 deals in August. Of the twelve deals, three took place in the spot concentrates market, two took place in the medium and long-term market, three in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. Restricted prices weakened, but unrestricted prices firmed slightly. The enrichment price range narrowed a bit

  1. Evaluation of market samples of ′Yashada bhasma′ using ′Namburi Phased Spot Test′

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santhosh Bhojashettar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Yashada bhasma (Calx of Yashada i.e. Zinc which has its main indication in Prameha (Diabetes and Netra vikaras (Eye disorders was prepared according to the prescription in the Ayurvedic classics and subjected to various bhasma parikshas, including the Namburi Phased Spot Test (NPST, one of the qualitative tests described for various Ayurvedic preparations. NPST helps differentiate between, and thus identify, various bhasmas. It depends upon the pattern of the spot, which develops after a specific chemical reaction. Three market samples of Yashada bhasma, which were said to be Parada marita (incinerated using Mercury, were also subjected to the above tests and results compared. The various bhasmas exhibited marked differences in colour, and though NPST yielded desired results for all the samples, there were differences in their spot patterns and colour. The bhasma prepared in our department produced the most accurate results.

  2. State of the art in the estimation of energy prices in the spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botero B, Sergio; Cano C, Jovan A

    2007-01-01

    Since the start energy markets deregulation in the world, several spot market (short term) price prediction methods have been developed? this article identifies and compares the main methods of prediction used in Colombia and other international markets. With this review it is possible to determine the state of the knowledge in the specific subject and then to look for the development of new forecasting techniques that can contribute to the solution of this problem. The prediction horizon is something that must be taken into account in the review of the several techniques, given that both the magnitude of the final model of estimation, and the time series treatment type, depend on this horizon.

  3. Iniciativa privada na Educação pública: a Fiat e o Programa Moto Perpétuo Private Initiative in Public Education: Fiat and the Moto Perpétuo Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oswaldo Gonçalves Junior

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available O artigo apresenta os principais resultados de um estudo de caso sobre o Programa Moto Perpétuo da Fiat Automóveis S. A. que, durante cinco anos (1997-2001, voltou-se à doação de kits de materiais paradidáticos para milhares de escolas de diferentes regiões do Brasil. Apesar do amplo alcance do Programa, base na qual seus promotores se apoiaram para afirmar tratar-se da maior parceria da iniciativa privada com o governo federal dentro do Acorda Brasil! Está na hora da Escola do MEC, não havia, até o momento, nenhum estudo que demonstrasse os efeitos práticos dessa ação, seja na melhoria da Educação, seja nas implicações de um redimensionamento das esferas pública e privada, assunto que acalora muitos debates. Mediante informações obtidas com a realização de entrevistas e pelo levantamento e exame de diversos documentos, pôde-se verificar que as correntes expectativas da eficiência de gestão e transferência de recursos em quantidade e qualidade suficientes não se concretizaram. Não obstante, os números sobre o Programa, comparativamente altos diante de outras iniciativas desse tipo, foram componentes do êxito na construção de uma imagem positiva em diversos setores da opinião pública. Apesar de não se poder afirmar que a iniciativa tenha resultado num avanço privado redefinidor do caráter público dos sistemas estadual e municipal de ensino atingidos, há indícios de que a implementação do Moto Perpétuo esteve condicionada pelas relações público (governo federal - privado (Fiat, representando um inédito capítulo centrado na "Educação", frente a um panorama no qual sobressaem historicamente acordos de ajuda mútua de caráter político-econômico.The article presents the main results of a case study on the Moto Perpétuo [Perpetual Motion] Program by Fiat Automobiles S.A. which for five years (1997-2001 donated kits of auxiliary didactic materials to thousands of schools in various regions of Brazil

  4. Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, Phillip; Hinich, Melvin J.; Foster, John

    2010-01-01

    In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to June 2009 to test for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing daily and weekly cycles in load and spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) to the time series of half hourly spot prices and load demand from 7/12/1998 to 30/06/2009 using a FORTRAN 95 program. We find the presence of significant third and fourth-order (nonlinear) serial dependence in the weekly load and spot price data in particular, but to a much more marginal extent, in the daily data. (author)

  5. Depósito elevado para la Fiat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nervi, Pier Luigi

    1965-07-01

    Full Text Available At the Turin Fiat factory an elevated water tank has been built, with a capacity of 2,000 m3 60 m above the ground, and cup shaped. The structure is reinforced concrete, and prefabricated panels are used, which are supported by a concrete disc, a cylindrical crown and radial ribs. The whole rests on piles. The stem is 8 m in diameter, and has been constructed with the aid of U shaped cylindrical panels, 3 cm in thickness, which served as external formwork for the stem walls. These are 60 cm thick at the bottom, and 50 cm at the top. The tank itself is a paraboloid, made with triangular panels which together form conical circular rings. These also served as formwork, and were supported by a tubular scaffolding. An observation post has been built on top of the tank. It is 25 m in diameter, and is covered with a ribbed spherical cupola, supported by hinged columns, which allow radial deformations, which are not transmitted to the top ring of the tank. The latter, being full of water, is kept at a more uniform temperature than the cupular roof, which is fully exposed to the weather.En la factoría Fiat, de Turín (Italia, se ha construido este depósito elevado, en forma de copa, de 2.000 m3 de capacidad y unos 60 m de altura sobre el suelo. Es de hormigón armado y paneles prefabricados, apoyándose sobre un disco de hormigón, una corona cilíndrica y contrafuertes radiales; todo lo cual descansa sobre pilotes. El fuste, de 8 m de diámetro, se ha construido con la ayuda de una serie de paneles, de superficie cilíndrica y sección transversal en forma de U con alas asimétricas, de 3 cm de espesor, que sirvieron de encofrado exterior en el hormigonado de las paredes, cuyo espesor varía de 60 cm en la zona inferior a 50 cm en la superior. La cubeta es un meridiano parabólico de revolución, constituido por paneles triangulares, formando anillos troncocónicos, que se utilizaron también como encofrado, apoyado sobre un entramado tubular en

  6. Aggregators’ Optimal Bidding Strategy in Sequential Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Spot Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolin Ayón

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probabilistic optimization method that produces optimal bidding curves to be submitted by an aggregator to the day-ahead electricity market and the intraday market, considering the flexible demand of his customers (based in time dependent resources such as batteries and shiftable demand and taking into account the possible imbalance costs as well as the uncertainty of forecasts (market prices, demand, and renewable energy sources (RES generation. The optimization strategy aims to minimize the total cost of the traded energy over a whole day, taking into account the intertemporal constraints. The proposed formulation leads to the solution of different linear optimization problems, following the natural temporal sequence of electricity spot markets. Intertemporal constraints regarding time dependent resources are fulfilled through a scheduling process performed after the day-ahead market clearing. Each of the different problems is of moderate dimension and requires short computation times. The benefits of the proposed strategy are assessed comparing the payments done by an aggregator over a sample period of one year following different deterministic and probabilistic strategies. Results show that probabilistic strategy reports better benefits for aggregators participating in power markets.

  7. Iniciativa privada na Educação pública: a Fiat e o Programa Moto Perpétuo Private Initiative in Public Education: Fiat and the Moto Perpétuo Program

    OpenAIRE

    Oswaldo Gonçalves Junior

    2008-01-01

    O artigo apresenta os principais resultados de um estudo de caso sobre o Programa Moto Perpétuo da Fiat Automóveis S. A. que, durante cinco anos (1997-2001), voltou-se à doação de kits de materiais paradidáticos para milhares de escolas de diferentes regiões do Brasil. Apesar do amplo alcance do Programa, base na qual seus promotores se apoiaram para afirmar tratar-se da maior parceria da iniciativa privada com o governo federal dentro do Acorda Brasil! Está na hora da Escola do MEC, não havi...

  8. Market values summary/April market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the April 1995 uranium market summary. Overall market activity during this period was low, with five deals in the concentrates market, two deals in the long-term natural uranium market, and three deals in the spot enrichment market. There were no spot trades in the UF6 or conversion market. The restricted and unrestricted exchange values were $11.60 and $7.35 respectively. The restricted and unrestricted UF6 values were $36.00 and $25.50, and the restricted and unrestricted transaction values were $10.30 and $7.25. Active uranium supply rose, and active demand fell

  9. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

    2010-01-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  10. Legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading; Marktmissbrauchsrechtliche Regelungen des WpHG und der REMIT-VO im Stromspothandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Retsch, Alexander T.

    2014-07-01

    The thesis on legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading include the discussion of the following issues: market abuse, its forms of appearance (market manipulation, insider trade, insider information), electricity spot trading, relevant legislative frame, market abuse regulations (WpHG), interdiction of market manipulation and related regulations.

  11. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  12. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  13. Fiat versus Representative Money under Debate, or How Right Keynes Was Once (!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liviu C. ANDREI

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The applied economics understands the concept of money nearly exclusively through the quantitative theory, which certainly remains one of the greatest theories in this topic area. On the other hand, the history of money – be it old or contemporary -- finds two other “nonquantitative” theories as more relevant in the respect that they are able to “cover” this history – these are representative and fiat money. Then, there comes the interesting point: this history “covered”, meaning a full explaining of facts would be made by the two theories and images of the same money just “together”—which is impossible in basic good sense terms, as money (as anything else cannot be real and fictitious value in the same time.

  14. Qualificação formal do trabalhador e automação na Fiat automóveis: um estudo comparativo nas plantas industriais de Cassino (Ita) e Betim (Br)

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Adriane; Garcia, Fernando Coutinho

    2008-01-01

    A proposta deste trabalho é analisar a mudança na qualificação formal dos trabalhadores no contexto das inovações tecnológicas. Tomou-se como referência o estudo de duas fábricas da Fiat Automóveis, uma localizada na cidade de Cassino/Itália, a mais automatizada do Grupo Fiat, e outra localizada na cidade de Betim/Brasil, que combina baixa automação com alta flexibilização do trabalho. Trata-se de uma pesquisa de campo, do tipo exploratória. Os dados foram coletados por meio de fontes secu...

  15. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

    1998-01-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  16. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  17. Spot Pricing When Lagrange Multipliers Are Not Unique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao; Zhong, Jin

    2012-01-01

    Classical spot pricing theory is based on multipliers of the primal problem of an optimal market dispatch, i.e., the solution of the dual problem. However, the dual problem of market dispatch may yield multiple solutions. In these circumstances, spot pricing or any standard pricing practice based...... on a strict extension of the principles of spot pricing and surplus allocation, we propose a new pricing methodology that can yield unique, impartial, and robust solution. The new method has been analyzed and compared with other pricing approaches in accordance with spot pricing theory. Case studies support...

  18. Do changes in natural gas futures prices influence changes in natural gas spot prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    Data on natural gas futures and spot markets are examined to determine if variability in price on futures markets influences variability in price on spot markets. Using econometric techniques, it is found that changes in futures contract prices do not precede changes in spot market prices. (Author)

  19. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  20. How much extra spot gas is there?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bros, Th.

    2007-01-01

    With the increase of European gas demand and the sharp decrease of local supply, security of supply is becoming an ever greater issue. However, liberalization tilts the traditional equilibrium based on long term 'take or pay' contracts between big suppliers and national distribution companies. Today, buying gas on the spot market is becoming more and more important to balance supply portfolio with a fast moving market share. But the way gas spot markets are operating is not well documented. It is very difficult to assess its impact on the European security of supply. Therefore, the aim of this article is to evaluate the amount of 'spot' liquefied natural gas (LNG) that could be found in case of a major supply disruption in pipe gas delivered to Europe

  1. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  2. Market place movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Historical financial data is provided for the uranium market in graphical and tabular form. Data include uranium spot price range, spot conversion price range, and seperative work units price range. Additional spot market information provided is natural uranium by buyers and sellers. Medium- and long-term data includes average natural uranium prices, and natural uranium market by buyers and sellers. Information on US contracted supply and demand and uranium production in Australia, Canada, and the US is given

  3. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy; Redes neurais artificiais aplicadas na previsao de precos spot no mercado de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso [Univesidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia], emails: alcantaro@iee.usp.br, aquiles@iee.usp.br

    2010-07-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  4. Forward reliability markets: Less risk, less market power, more efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cramton, Peter; Stoft, Steven

    2008-01-01

    A forward reliability market is presented. The market coordinates new entry through the forward procurement of reliability options - physical capacity bundled with a financial option to supply energy above a strike price. The market assures adequate generating resources and prices capacity from the bids of competitive new entry in an annual auction. Efficient performance incentives are maintained from a load-following obligation to supply energy above the strike price. The capacity payment fully hedges load from high spot prices, and reduces supplier risk as well. Market power is reduced in the spot market, since suppliers enter the spot market with a nearly balanced position in times of scarcity. Market power in the reliability market is addressed by not allowing existing supply to impact the capacity price. The approach, which has been adopted in New England and Colombia, is readily adapted to either a thermal system or a hydro system. (author)

  5. Futures markets, cognitive ability, and mispricing in experimental asset markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noussair, Charles; Tucker, Steven; Xu, Yilong

    2016-01-01

    We study the effect of a futures market, in which contracts maturing in the last period of the life of the asset can be traded. Our experiment has two treatments, one in which a spot market operates on its own, and a second treatment, in which a spot and a futures market are active simultaneously.

  6. Market review - Market values summary/August market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the August 1995 uranium market review. During this reporting period, there were three transactions in the long-term concentrates sector, no transactions in the UF6 market, and limited activity in the spot conversion market and the enrichment services market. Active supply rose, as did active demand. Prices were stable to slightly increasing

  7. Market review - Market values summary/July market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the July 1995 uranium market review. Data for current uranium market is presented, and a summary of recent transactions is also given. During this reporting period, there was one concentrate deal, two transactions in the long-term natural uranium market and conversion market, and three spot market transactions in the enrichment market. Active uranium supply fell, as did demand, and prices in all sectors were relatively stable

  8. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Hyosun Kim’s report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it PMID:27239884

  9. A model of the world uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trieu, L.H.; Savage, E.; Dwyer, G.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract agreements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources. (Author)

  10. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  11. Market efficiency in the European carbon markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier; Fouilloux, Jessica

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the period from March 13, 2009 to January, 17, 2012. Futures contracts are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates for several maturities in the three CO 2 markets. Results are similar when structural breaks are taken into account. According to individual and joint tests, the cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and CO 2 markets, implying that neither contract is priced according to the cost-of-carry model. The absence of the cost-of-carry relationship can be interpreted as an indicator of market inefficiency and may bring arbitrage opportunities in the CO 2 market. - Highlights: • We study the cost-of-carry hypothesis in the European carbon markets during Phase 2. • We apply cointegration tests with and without structural breaks on several maturities. • We find that futures contracts are cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates. • The cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and carbon markets

  12. Uranium market enters slow summer period as enrichment market heats up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Prices slipped in the restricted and unrestricted uranium markets. Prices in the restricted market remained above the $10-benchmark, with uranium trading in the relatively narrow range of $10.05 to $10.20 per lb U3O8. Meanwhile, NUKEM detected a lowering and widening of the range in the unrestricted market; $7.10 to $7.45 per lb U3O8 was the order of the day there. The other notable feature of recent price movements has been the aggressive competition in the US spot conversion market. Many analysts have noted favorable prices for UF6 relative to components in recent market activity. Summer doldrums appear to be setting in. May and a correspondingly small number of offers are outstanding as of the end of the month. Last month NUKEM inaugurated a spot conversion price range and asked for readers' views. Those expressing an opinion were unanimous; NUKEM will publish both its longstanding estimate of new contract prices as well as the spot range. Some noted the somewhat wide range of last month's spot conversion prices. In explanation, we note that this figure encompasses activity over the full month and in the US as well as the non-US markets. Thus, it resembles the spot SWU range

  13. Spot volume nearly 5 million lbs; restricted price hits $11.00

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in March 1995 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. The 40 transactions made for the month are described separately for each market. Deals made in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and enrichment markets are further detailed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  14. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  15. 1996 year-end market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for uranium markets in 1996 is provided. Spot market activity and buyers and sellers of spot uranium are outlined for the restricted and unrestricted market. Data on the concentrates, uranium hexafluoride, enriched uranium product, and term uranium markets are also presented. Market data is also provided for conversion and enrichment services

  16. Sequential bidding in day-ahead auctions for spot energy and power systems reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swider, Derk J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper a novel approach for sequential bidding on day-ahead auction markets for spot energy and power systems reserve is presented. For the spot market a relatively simple method is considered as a competitive market is assumed. For the reserve market one bidder is assumed to behave strategically and the behavior of the competitors is summarized in a probability distribution of the market price. This results in a method for sequential bidding, where the bidding prices and capacities on the spot and reserve markets are calculated by maximizing a stochastic non-linear objective function of expected profit. With an exemplary application is shown that the trading sequence leads to increasing bidding capacities and prices in the reverse rank number of the markets. Hence, the consideration of a defined trading sequence greatly influences the mathematical representation of the optimal bidding behavior under price uncertainty in day-ahead auctions for spot energy and power systems reserve. (Author)

  17. Spot volume exceeds 2 million lbs (again); restricted price hits $10/lb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the January 1995 uranium market summary. Volume on the spot concentrates market exceeded 2 million lbs equivalent for the second consecutive month. Six deals took place; four in the spot concentrates market, one in the conversion market, and one in the enrichment market. No deals took place in the medium or long-term market. The upper end of the restricted price range reached $10.00 per lb U3O8, its highest level since December 1993. The lower end of the restricted price range strengthened to $9.75. The lower end of the spot conversion price range strengthed to $5.70 per kg U, and SWU prices firmed to the $75.00 to $87.00 level

  18. The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pechan, Anna; Eisenack, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    Thermoelectric power plants depend on cooling water drawn from water bodies. Low river run-off and/or high water temperatures limit a plant's production capacity. This problem may intensify with climate change. Our study quantifies the impact of forced capacity reductions on market prices, production costs, consumer and producer surplus, as well as emissions by means of a bottom-up power generation system model. First, we simulate the German electricity spot market during the heat wave of 2006. Then we conduct a sensitivity study that accounts for future climatic and technological conditions. We find an average price increase of 11% during the heat wave 2006, which is even more pronounced during times of peak demand. Production costs accumulate to an additional but moderate 16 m. Due to the price increase, producers gain from the heat wave, whereas consumers disproportionately bear the costs. Carbon emissions in the German electricity sector increase during the heat wave. The price and cost effects are more pronounced and increase significantly if assumptions on heat-sensitive demand, hydropower capacity, net exports, and capacity reductions are tightened. These are potential additional effects of climate change. Hence, if mitigation fails or is postponed globally, the impacts on the current energy system are very likely to rise. Increases in feed-in from renewable resources and demand-side management can counter the effects to a considerable degree. Countries with a shift toward a renewable energy supply can be expected to be much less susceptible to cooling water scarcity than those with a high share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. - Highlights: • We quantify the impact of thermal capacity reductions on the electricity market. • German heat wave 2006 caused moderate rise in production costs. • Capacity reductions have substantial impact on prices and raise producer surplus. • Impacts on prices, production cost and surplus amplify under climate

  19. Information transmission and market interactions across the Atlantic. An empirical study on the natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kao, Chung-Wei; Wan, Jer-Yuh

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the international information transmission and market interactions in the U.S. and U.K. natural gas markets. Three well documented approaches are used to measure the relative importance on the process of price discovery under a quadvariate system. After adjusting the effects of nonsynchronous trading prices, robust results indicate our system that includes spot and futures prices within the two countries are driven by one common factor. Information disseminates efficiently among the four markets concerned. The U.S. futures market dominates as the center for price discovery. The U.K. futures market comes as the second. The spot markets in the U.S. and U.K. are less efficient than their corresponding futures market, where the U.K. spot market contributes the least and almost zero to the price discovery process. Asymmetric volatility spillovers are found in three of the four markets. Volatility in the U.S. futures market increases with positive returns which illustrates the inverse leverage effect in most of the commodity market. Volatilities in the spot markets are negatively related to returns, which is analogous to the traditional leverage effect prevailing in most of the equity stock markets. (author)

  20. The world enrichment market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunter, L.; McCants, C.; Rutkowski, E.

    1991-01-01

    The enrichment market can be divided into two periods: the near-term market (1991 to 1995) and the long-term market (1995 and beyond). The near-term market is characterized by limited unfilled requirements of 4% per year, to be supplied by national stockpiles and excess inventories. This low-cost material will be drawn down by about 1993, causing a subsequent price rise. As the price rises, primary supplier activity is expected to increase. In the near-term, two contracting activities are apparent: spot; and intermediate-term. The current spot market is expected to last until available low cost inventories are drawn down. Recently, in attempts to gain market share, suppliers have offered attractively priced intermediate-term (3 year) contracts for 1996 to 1998. While a small spot market will continue after 1995, it is anticipated that utilities will prefer a mix of medium- and long-term (5 to 10 year) contracts from primary suppliers for most of their enrichment requirements. As national stockpiles and utility inventories are consumed, low-cost supply available to the spot market is expected to diminish. Consequently, with little low-cost supply available, the only apparent source of material will be from primary suppliers, and the resulting competition over market share is expected to be intense. (author)

  1. EXPLANATORY MODEL OF SPOT PRICE OF IRON ORE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Enrique Villalva A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to construct an explanatory model of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. For this, the method of multiple linear regressions was used. As a dependent variable, the spot price of iron ore (62% Fe China Tianjin port was taken, between 2010 and 2013. As independents variables were taken seven variables of international iron ore market. The resulting model includes variables: Iron ore inventory in Chinese ports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI, Iron ore exports from Brazil & Australia and Chinese Rebar Steel Price, as explanatory variables of the behavior of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. The model has an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 of 0.90, and was validated by comparing its predictions vs. known values of 2014.

  2. Exploring the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices and identifying hot spots in Berlin’s residential property market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulen, Philipp an de; Mitze, Timo Friedel

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we use residual values obtained from an estimated hedonic pricing model to assess the role of district-level neighbourhood effects for the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices in Berlin between 2008 and 2013. By doing so, we also aim at identifying hot and cold spots ...... analysis (ESDA) toolbox, we finally pinpoint particular hot spots of the city’s residential property market associated with a significant spatial clustering of similar rental price values around individual observations....... proximity to the city centre compared to similar properties in Berlin’s periphery once we control for the properties’ physical characteristics. The observed temporal evolution of the rental price distribution between 2008 and 2013 thereby hints at an ongoing gentrification process in Germany’s capital...... associated with the current housing market boom. This visual impression is also confirmed by the application of quantile regressions for a correlation analysis between quality-adjusted rental price values and Berlin district-level characteristics obtained from the last census in 2011. Among other factors, we...

  3. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  4. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  5. Hydropower planning coordinated with wind power in areas with congestion problems for trading on the spot and the regulating market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matevosyan, Julija; Olsson, Magnus; Soeder, Lennart

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a day-ahead planning algorithm for a multi-reservoir hydropower system coordinated with wind power is developed. Coordination applies to real situations, where wind power and hydropower are owned by different utilities, sharing the same transmission lines, though hydropower has priority for transmission capacity. Coordination is thus necessary to minimize wind energy curtailments during congestion situations. The planning algorithm accounts for the uncertainty of wind power forecasts and power market price uncertainty. Planning for the spot market and the regulating market is considered in the algorithm. The planning algorithm is applied to a case study and the results are summarized in the paper. (author)

  6. Evaluation of Corporate Social Responsibility Programme by Application of Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study of Fiat Automobiles’ Cooperárvore Programme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Maurício de Oliveira

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This article sets out to assess Cooperárvore, FIAT Automobiles’ labour corporative project within its “Árvore da Vida” Corporate Social Responsibility Programme, in the city of Betim, in the State of Minas Gerais. This is a descriptive case study whose overall aim is to measure the scope of the automaker’s social actions promoting the development of Jardim Teresópolis neighbourhood, by way of job and income generation, reduction of social vulnerability and economic and human development. Its specific objective is to present an evaluation and monitoring pattern of a social responsibility project by application of the Balanced Scorecard tool (BSC, in order to allow for improving management and inspire other corporate social initiatives. In the theoretical framework, the importance of corporate social responsibility has been studied in sustainable development, as well as concepts and models of evaluation of social projects. The survey was conducted based on documents related to Árvore da Vida and on interviews involving the programme’s managers and beneficiaries, in a qualitative perspective. From data analysis, positive results with significant advances in the beneficiaries and community development can be noticed. However, at some points it can be seen that the cooperative is not yet able to sustain itself, mainly due to its market limitations, depending on financial contributions and participation of the current sponsor in its management. This requires the management team to adopt some strategic definitions in order to implement short and medium term solutions to broaden the cooperative market to ensure their autonomy and sustainability.

  7. Testing Co-Volatility Spillovers for Natural Gas Spot, Futures and ETF Spot using Dynamic Conditional Covariances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y. Wang (Yanghuiting)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThere is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging

  8. The efficiency of natural gas futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, A.E.H.

    2003-01-01

    Recent experience with the emergence of futures markets for natural gas has led to many questions about the drivers and functioning of these markets. Most often, however, studies lack strong statistical support. The objective of this article is to use some classical statistical tests to check whether futures markets for natural gas (NG) are efficient or not. The problem of NG market efficiency is closely linked to the debate on the value of NG. More precisely, if futures markets were really efficient, then: 1) spot prices would reflect the existence of a market assessment, which is proof that speculation and the manipulation of prices are absent; 2) as a consequence, spot prices could give clear signals about the value of NG; and 3) historical series on spot prices could serve as ''clean'' benchmarks in the pricing of NG in long-term contracts. On the whole, since the major share of NG is sold to power producers, the efficiency of futures markets implies that spot prices for NG are driven increasingly by power prices. On the other hand, if futures markets for natural gas fail the efficiency tests, this will reflect: 1) a lack of liquidity in futures markets and/or possibilities of an excess return in the short term; 2) a pass-through of the seasonality of power demand in the gas market; 3) the existence of a transitory process, before spot markets become efficient and give clear signals about the value of NG. Using monthly data on three segments of the futures markets, our findings show that efficiency is almost completely rejected on both the International Petroleum Exchange in London (UK market) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (US market). On the NYMEX, the principle of ''co-movement'' between spot and forward prices seems to be respected. However, the autocorrelation functions of the first differences in the price changes show no randomness of price fluctuations for three segments out of four. Further, both the NYMEX and the IPE fail, with regard to the

  9. Iniciativa privada na Educação pública: a Fiat e o Programa Moto Perpétuo

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves Junior,Oswaldo

    2008-01-01

    O artigo apresenta os principais resultados de um estudo de caso sobre o Programa Moto Perpétuo da Fiat Automóveis S. A. que, durante cinco anos (1997-2001), voltou-se à doação de kits de materiais paradidáticos para milhares de escolas de diferentes regiões do Brasil. Apesar do amplo alcance do Programa, base na qual seus promotores se apoiaram para afirmar tratar-se da maior parceria da iniciativa privada com o governo federal dentro do Acorda Brasil! Está na hora da Escola do MEC, não havi...

  10. Failing electricity markets: should we shoot the pools?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Richard

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the electricity reforms in California and in England and Wales. In both cases, a centralised spot market played a major role, and both markets have now been abolished. This paper argues that their disappearance is not evidence that future electricity restructuring should avoid the use of spot markets. Instead, the problems in England and Wales were largely due to market power. In California, problems arising from market power and a tightening demand-supply balance were turned into a disaster because the spot market had not been backed up by hedging contracts. (Author)

  11. The new generation of the medium four cylinder - spark ignition engines by FIAT-GM powertrain; Die neue Generation der mittleren Vierzylinder - Ottomotoren von FIAT-GM Powertrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grebe, U.D.; Gebhard, P.; Loehnert, T.; Opacak, I.; Theis, H.G. [Opel Powertrain GmbH, ein Unternehmen von FIAT-GM Powertrain (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    The medium size gasoline engine family by FIAT-GM Powertrain, internally called Family 1, was redesigned with regard to fuel consumption, quality, maintenance and manufacturing cost. Next to the optimizations the refinement focused on modular use of components. The 1.6 l engine has the biggest production share and is the first variant of the new third generation of this engine family. The engine is using tappets with mechanical lash adjustment and a thermomanagement system. Next to the power output of 76 kW and the maximum torque of 147 Nm the development included the integration of a combustion system with port deactivation and high amounts of recirculated exhaust gas. This reduced the fuel consumption significantly. The new engine will be used in the Opel Astra first. The fuel consumption in the European MVEG test cycle is reduced by 7% from 7.0 to 6.5 l/100 km. This positions the vehicle in the upper segment. Alternative solutions use much more complex measures such as stratified charge gasoline direct injection to achieve comparable fuel consumptions. The described cost efficient system combines best customer benefit in terms of fuel consumption and vehicle performance with optimized manufacturing cost and excellent long-term reliability. This engine concept using modular components creates a platform for the medium four-cylinder gasoline engine family. This platform will be the basis for the entire redesigned engine family applying different combinations of the modules. (orig.) [German] Die mittlere Ottomotoren-Baureihe von FIAT-GM Powertrain mit der Bezeichnung Familie 1 wurde grundlegend hinsichtlich Kraftstoffverbrauch, Emissionsreduzierung, Qualitaet, Wartungsaufwand und Herstellkosten ueberarbeitet. Neben den Optimierungen stand die Modularisierung der Komponenten im Mittelpunkt. Der 1,6 Liter Motor stellt das groesste Produktionsvolumen und ist die erste Variante der weiterentwickelten, dritten Generation dieser Motorfamilie. Der Motor verwendet einen

  12. Demand response in Indian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

  13. Risk premia in energy markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut E.D.; Veraart, Luitgard A.M.

    Risk premia between spot and forward prices play a key role in energy markets. This paper derives analytic expressions for such risk premia when spot prices are modelled by Lévy semistationary processes. While the relation between spot and forward prices can be derived using classical no......-arbitrage arguments as long as the underlying commodities are storable, the situation changes in the case of electricity. Hence, in an empirical study based on electricity spot prices and futures from the European Energy Exchange market, we investigate the empirical behaviour of electricity risk premia from...

  14. 7 CFR 28.422 - Strict Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Middling Spotted Color. 28.422 Section 28.422 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Strict Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples...

  15. 7 CFR 28.425 - Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.425 Section 28.425 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in...

  16. Market review: Market values summary July market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market is provided. Recent transactions are tabulated, including uranium sales, natural uranium loans, conversion sales, and enrichment sales. A market values summary and long-term price indicators are also provided. The July 1996 market review data includes summaries of near-term uranium sales, near-term supply/demand, NUEXCO values, USEC prices, and calculated worth of enriched uranium. Active projects in uranium, conversion, and separative work supply and demand are listed. International market values are tabulated for 22 selected currencies

  17. Tangible and fungible energy: Hybrid energy market and currency system for total energy management. A Masdar City case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sgouridis, Sgouris; Kennedy, Scott

    2010-01-01

    We propose the introduction of an energy-based parallel currency as a means to ease the transition to energy-conscious living. Abundant fossil energy resources mask the internal and external energy costs for casual energy consumers. This situation is challenging communities that draw a significant fraction of their primary energy consumption from renewable energy sources. The Masdar Energy Credit (MEC) system is a way of translating the fundamental aspects behind energy generation and usage into a tangible reality for all users with built-in fungibility to incentivize collectively sustainable behavior. The energy credit currency (ergo) corresponds with a chosen unit of energy so that the total amount of ergos issued equals the energy supply of the community. Ergos are distributed to users (residents, commercial entities, employees, and visitors) on a subscription basis and can be surrendered in exchange for the energy content of a service. A spot market pricing mechanism is introduced to relate ergos to 'fiat' currency using a continuously variable exchange rate to prevent depletion of the sustainable energy resource. The MEC system is intended to: (i) meet the sustainable energy balance targets of a community (ii) support peak shaving or load shifting goals, and (iii) raise energy awareness.

  18. Price signals and investment incentives in wholesale electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilopoulos, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    We look at how prices from energy-only power markets can send the right signals and give the correct incentives for investments in production capacity. Through numerical simulations of spot prices over 2003-2005 we compare the investment signal sent by observed electricity prices in France and what would be competitive prices with an optimal mix and with the installed capacity. Observed prices tend to overestimate profitability for the base-load, making the signal too strong and underestimate profitability for the peak load, making the signal too weak. However, as a large share of consumers is still paying regulated tariffs, scarcity rents are capped. We simulate future prices for France for 2010 to 2020 to understand the incentives to invest. When the entry is free, the incentives to invest given by the future prices are consistent with the optimal mix including the interconnections and nuclear build is strong. With political or regulatory barriers to the construction of new power plants for new entrants (i.e. finding new sites), there are no incentives for the incumbent (that owns all existing base-load and peak load capacity) to add more nuclear capacity. In this situation, new entry would have to be coal or gas except if units are bid strategically to maintain profitability and market share. Moreover, it can also be profitable to limit prices and restrain entry in order to receive higher future revenues. When the base-load is less concentrated and instead of a dominant firm the nuclear capacity is divided into five (equal share) firms, the incentives to invest reappear and the threat of entry becomes more credible. (author) [fr

  19. Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

    We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

  20. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better? Comment on "Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A Content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Evan

    2016-02-21

    Hyosun Kim's report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  1. Electricity storages - optimised operation based on spot market prices; Stromspeicher. Optimierte Fahrweise auf Basis der Spotmarktpreise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernhard, Dominik; Roon, Serafin von [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2010-06-15

    With its integrated energy and climate package the last federal government set itself ambitious goals for the improvement of energy efficiency and growth of renewable energy production. These goals were confirmed by the new government in its coalition agreement. However, they can only be realised if the supply of electricity from fluctuating renewable sources can be made to coincide with electricity demand. Electricity storages are therefore an indispensable component of the future energy supply system. This article studies the optimised operation of an electricity storage based on spot market prices and the influence of wind power production up to the year 2020.

  2. Buying natural gas in the spot market: risks related to the natural gas industry globalization; Aquisicao de gas natural em bases 'spot': riscos associados a globalizacao da industria do gas natural

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathias, Melissa Cristina [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Szklo, Alexandre Salem [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Planejamento Energetico

    2008-07-01

    The growth of the international natural gas trade during the last decade resulted in the expectation that this product would be traded as a commodity. This expectation created a boom in the investments related to the commercialization of natural gas between borders, especially in the distinct segments of the chain of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Different agents launched themselves into liquefaction and regasification enterprises, and the ordering of ships also showed significant growth. Despite that, the natural gas market still cannot be considered global, and international gas transactions are primarily done within regional markets. This article investigates the challenges posed to the constitution of a global natural gas market. These challenges represent risks to the commercialization of this product in spot bases, for the agents that launch themselves into projects to export or import LNG to be commercialized through short term contracts in the international market for this product. (author)

  3. Multifractal features of spot rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas shipping market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelen, Steve; Norouzzadeh, Payam; Rahmani, Bahareh; Dullaert, Wout

    2011-01-01

    We investigate for the first time the spot rate dynamics of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and rescaled range (R/S) analysis. Both non-parametric methods allow for a rigorous statistical analysis of the freight process by detecting correlation, scaling and fluctuation behavior regardless of nonlinearity issues. By applying different data-frequencies and a temporal framework, the Hurst exponents indicate that freight rates exhibit trend-reinforcement and persistence subject to limited time-dependency and controlled volatility. The found long-range dependence corroborates that a predictive freight model can be built undermining the efficient market hypothesis. Memory effects seem to each time build up until they are interrupted by seasonal transitions, stochastic events or cycles which all spark a sudden loss in correlations or increase in nonlinearities. The surrogate and shuffling data procedures demonstrate that, dependent on the data-frequency used, memory effects and fat-tail distributions should be contained differently in freight rate models. (author)

  4. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better?; Comment on “Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A Content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan Doran

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Hyosun Kim’s report “Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters”aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it.

  5. Market overview: Volume and prices remain low

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in February 1997 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  6. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  7. Market review: Market values summary/May market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    This article is the May 1996 Uranium transactions summary. Data on Uranium supply and demand is included, as is data on conversion services and separative work units supply and demand. The spot market was active during this period, with 3.6 million pounds U3O8 changing hands in nine transactions. This brought a strengthing of prices. There were also five deals in the long-term market and three deals for natural UF6

  8. Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels

    In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...

  9. Computation of spot prices and congestion costs in large interconnected power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukerji, R.; Jordan, G.A.; Clayton, R.; Haringa, G.E.

    1995-01-01

    Foremost among the new paradigms for the US utility industry is the ''poolco'' concept proposed by Prof. William W. Hogan of Harvard University. This concept uses a central pool or power exchange in which physical power is traded based on spot prices or market clearing prices. The rapid and accurate calculation of these ''spot'' prices and associated congestion costs for large interconnected power systems is the central tenet upon which the poolco concept is based. The market clearing price would be the same throughout the system if there were no system losses and transmission limitations did not exist. System losses cause small differences in market clearing prices as the cost of supplying a MW at various load buses includes the cost of losses. Transmission limits may cause large differences in market clearing prices between regions as low cost generation is blocked by the transmission constraints from serving certain loads. In models currently in use in the electric power industry spot price calculations range from ''bubble diagram'' type contract path models to full electrical representation such as GE-MAPS. The modeling aspects of the full electrical representation are included in the Appendix. The problem with the bubble diagram representation is that these models are liable to produce unacceptably large errors in the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs. The subtleties of the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs are illustrated in this paper

  10. Reassessing the integration of European electricity markets: A fractional cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2016-01-01

    This study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in Europe, by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices, and adopting a time-varying fractional cointegration analysis. In addition, the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity (new interconnection, market coupling, increase in share of intermittent generation) on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated. Daily spot prices from February 2000 to March 2013 of nine European electricity spot markets (APX-UK, APX-NL, Belpex, EPEX-FR, EPEX-DE, IPEX, Nordpool, Omel and OTE) and month-ahead prices in four markets (French, British, German and Dutch) from November 2007 to December 2012 are investigated. Results show that unit root tests, which are generally used in the literature to test market integration, are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence, because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean-reverting time series. Furthermore, spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time, reflecting changes in the EU electrical system. One-month-ahead prices, by contrast, were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends. - Highlights: • We examine electricity market convergence in the EU. • Common price dynamics are affected by changes in interconnection and capacity. • Forward markets have increased in resilience. • Germany's nuclear plant closures had an adverse effect on most European electricity markets.

  11. Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen

    2018-03-01

    This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

  12. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-06-15

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  13. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-01-01

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  14. Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

  15. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, V.

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  16. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  17. Lead-lag effects between Brent Crude Futures and its respective spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aims the analyses of the causality and temporal precedence relationships between the spot and futures prices of Brent oil, those last ones inherent to financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, the main tools used were: Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test (GCBEW; generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors, those three last ones were estimated based in a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC, adjusted to the analyzed variables. The results indicated that, for the stipulated period, there was a pricing lightweight leadership from the futures contracts to the prices of spot market. However, as a conclusion of the article, the understanding is that this small difference, calculated in several econometric tools, cannot be considered enough to indicate that the Brent oil future market would be distorting its respective spot prices, despite the economic fundamentals of the physical market, such as production, consumption and stockpiling processes. Therefore, management decisions in industries exposed to crude oil prices should be aware of both physical and future markets’ prospections.

  18. Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside

  19. The relation of monthly spot to futures prices for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between the spot price for natural gas for a delivery month and the futures contract price for the same delivery month is examined. The estimated regression equation provides a good summary of the relationship between spot and futures prices for the time period and can also be used to obtain accurate forecasts of spot prices. It appears that the natural gas futures market is inefficient. (author)

  20. Market Review: Market values summary; March market review; Current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    This article is the March 1996 uranium market summary. In this reporting period, there were two deals in the natural uranium spot market and four deals in the long-term market. The unrestricted value moved upward to $13.50 per pound U3O8, and the long-term price indicator was $16.50. In the UF6 market, there was but a single deal. Both the restricted and the unrestricted values moved upward, to $47.00 and $41.25 respectively. The restricted and the unrestricted transaction values moved upward, to $13.35 and $8.40 respectively. In the enrichment services market, there were no transactions. Both the restricted and the unrestricted SWU values remained constant at $97 and $90 respectively. Active uranium supply rose, while active demand decreased sharply

  1. Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...... they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework....

  2. El gigante dormido sale a la calle: construcciones enunciativas de Johnnie Walker y Fiat durante las manifestaciones brasileñas de 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Mandaji, Carolina Fernandes da Silva; Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná

    2014-01-01

    O tema deste trabalho são as manifestações ocorridas nos meses de junho e julho de 2013 em todo o Brasil. Trata-se de uma reflexão sobre as construções enunciativas de discursos midiáticos no cenário nacional e internacional.  Esta investigação se propõe a entender os processos enunciativos, e portanto, discursivos e interacionais no uso da materialidade sincrética e audiovisual de anúncios publicitários das marcas Johnnie Walker e Fiat. Tanto a campanha “Keep walking, Brazil” como  a “Vem pr...

  3. EVOLUTION OF FIAT AUTOMÓVEIS S.AS STRATEGY VIS-A-VIS COMPETITIVE CHANGES IN THE BRAZILIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT: A CASE STUDY

    OpenAIRE

    SERGIO MOLINA MICAELO

    2003-01-01

    A Fiat Automóveis S.A. se destacou na indústria automobilística nacional ao atingir, em 2001, a liderança do mercado de automóveis e comerciais leves. A análise desta trajetória avaliou a variação do ambiente competitivo e as estratégias seguidas em dois momentos relevantes determinados por questionário estruturado, que foram 1994 e 2001. A caracterização do ambiente da indústria e das estratégias usaram, respectivamente, o modelo das cinco forças e a tipologia...

  4. Modeling and analysis of strategic forward contracting in transmission constrained power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.W.; Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wang, X.

    2010-01-01

    Taking the effects of transmission network into account, strategic forward contracting induced by the interaction of generation firms' strategies in the spot and forward markets is investigated. A two-stage game model is proposed to describe generation firms' strategic forward contracting and spot market competition. In the spot market, generation firms behave strategically by submitting bids at their nodes in a form of linear supply function (LSF) and there are arbitrageurs who buy and resell power at different nodes where price differences exceed the costs of transmission. The owner of the grid is assumed to ration limited transmission line capacity to maximize the value of the transmission services in the spot market. The Cournot-type competition is assumed for the strategic forward contract market. This two-stage model is formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC); in which each firm's optimization problem in the forward market is a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and parameter-dependent spot market equilibrium as the inner problem. A nonlinear complementarity method is employed to solve this EPEC model. (author)

  5. Effects of Current Forward Market Intervention in the Korean Currency Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Moon

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of the exchange market interventions of the Bank of Korea on the exchange rate of Korean won vis-a-vis US dollar during the 1997 currency crisis. In particular, this paper tests the effects of spot and forward market interventions, using daily intervention data of the Bank of Korea. During the 1997 period, Korea faced two series of crisis in January-March and September-November. It turns out that the spot market intervention was effective in stabilizing the spot market exchange rate at least during the first crisis period. In contrast, there seemed no effect of the forward market intervention. Forward market intervention was rather destabilizing through forward exchange rate during the second crisis period. This implies that even though the forward and sterilized spot market interventions are equivalent in their effect on exchange rate, these two instruments can widely diverge from each other under the circumstances of exchange rate volatility and speculation.

  6. Market values summary/September market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. In the concentrates and conversion market, there were four deals. The unrestricted value decreased slightly to $7.00, and the restricted value decreased to $9.05. In the UF6 market, there was a single transaction. Both the restricted and the unrestricted values decreased ($29.00 and $24.25 respectively). The restricted transaction value was unchanged at $9.15, while the unrestricted value decreased to $7.10. In the enrichment services market, long-term contracting picked up and there were two deals in the spot market. Restricted values dropped to $84.00 per SWU, while the unrestricted value remained constant at $67.00 per SWU. Active uranium supply increased, while active uranium demand decreased

  7. Modeling methods for GenCo bidding strategy optimization in the liberalized electricity spot market-A state-of-the-art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Gong; Shi, Jing; Qu, Xiuli

    2011-01-01

    The electricity market has since 1980s been gradually evolving from a monopoly market into a liberalized one for encouraging competition and improving efficiency. This brings the opportunity for generation companies (GenCos) to make more profits while embracing more risks of not being dispatched. Therefore, it has become a core interest for the GenCos to develop optimal bidding strategies to maximize the profits and minimize the risks while participating in such a competitive market. The literature pertaining to this issue has grown rapidly in recent years, and many different modeling approaches, such as mathematical programming, game theory, and agent-based models, have been investigated under the liberalized market environment. Meanwhile, along with the increasing penetration of renewable energy, the electricity market is facing more complexity and stochasticity from both uncertain generation and dynamic demands. The intermittent and unsteady nature of these renewable power sources motivates the GenCos to further optimize their bidding strategy by considering the new constraints. This paper presents a comprehensive literature analysis on the state-of-the-art research of bidding strategy modeling methods. -- Highlights: → Publications on bidding in electricity spot markets are comprehensively reviewed. → Insights on the evolution of solution methodologies of recent 10 years are provided. → The pros and cons of these solution approaches are also discussed. → Future research directions, with renewable energy participations, are pointed out.

  8. Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furio, Dolores; Meneu, Vicente

    2010-01-01

    Deregulation in energy markets has entailed important changes in the way agents conduct business. Price risk arises as a result of fluctuations in the future price of electricity and agents assume long or short positions in the forward and spot markets to hedge their exposure to price risk. The presence of forward risk premium in prices is evidence of the fact that agents act in the market according to risk considerations. This work aims to analyse the information content of the difference between the forward and spot prices (the so-called forward premium) regarding the agents' decisions. We find that the sign and magnitude of the ex post forward premium depend on the unexpected variation in demand and on the unexpected variation in the hydroelectric capacity, and that both the ex post and the ex ante forward premia are negatively related to the variance of spot price, as predict. We provide additional insights about relevant aspects of spot price pricing in the Spanish electricity market such as the positive relation between spot prices and CO 2 emission allowance prices or the impact on spot prices of the set of market matching rules introduced in March 2006.

  9. Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

  10. Effect of surface coating on ripening and early peel spotting in 'Sucrier' banana (Musa acuminata)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Promyou, S.; Ketsa, S.; Doorn, van W.G.

    2007-01-01

    Sucrier¿ bananas (Musa acuminata, AA Group) show peel spotting when the peel is just about as yellow as green, which coincides with optimum eating quality. As consumers might relate the spotting to overripe fruit, early spotting is considered undesirable, especially for export markets. Fruit were

  11. PREDICTING RELEVANT EMPTY SPOTS IN SOCIAL INTERACTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yoshiharu MAENO; Yukio OHSAWA

    2008-01-01

    An empty spot refers to an empty hard-to-fill space which can be found in the records of the social interaction, and is the clue to the persons in the underlying social network who do not appear in the records. This contribution addresses a problem to predict relevant empty spots in social interaction. Homogeneous and inhomogeneous networks are studied as a model underlying the social interaction. A heuristic predictor function method is presented as a new method to address the problem. Simulation experiment is demonstrated over a homogeneous network. A test data set in the form of market baskets is generated from the simulated communication. Precision to predict the empty spots is calculated to demonstrate the performance of the presented method.

  12. Market based solutions for power pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangensteen, Ivar

    2002-06-01

    The report examines how the price for effect reserves, spot market power and regulated power is formed provided ideal market conditions rule. Primarily the price determining factors in a market for power reserves are examined and how the connection between this market and the energy market (the spot market) is. In a free market there would be a balance between what the actors may obtain by operating in the open market for power reserves/regulated power on the one hand and the market for spot power on the other. Primarily we suppose that the desired amount of power reserve is known. Secondly the problem constellation is extended to comprise the size of the effect reserves i.e. the optimising of the requirement to the power reserves. The optimal amount of power reserves is obtained when there is a balance between the cost and the benefit. This optimal balance is achieved when expected macro economical loss due to outfacing balances against the cost of maintaining larger reserves. By using a simple model it is demonstrated that a system operator regulates the maximal price in the regulated market and this equals the rationing price. The actors will offer sufficient reserves even if the reserve price is zero (provided risk neutrality). If the maximal price for regulated power is lower the price of effect reserves will rise. Based on the same simple model calculations are made for how short and long term market balance will be for increasing demands

  13. The Victorian gas market: debunking the myths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grimwade, T

    2001-01-01

    The Victorian wholesale gas spot market has operated effectively and trouble-free for over two years. VENCorp's Executive Manager of Energy Markets, reflects on the market experiences to date, and argues that Victoria's physical pipeline system characteristics require its market to be 'different' from those in the other States in Australia. The Victorian gas transmission system in not predominantly comprised of a single point-to-point pipeline; it is rather a 'meshed' network, with multiple point of supply. Gas flow on substantial sections of the transmission pipeline can be bi-directional, depending on market and demand conditions. Consequently, Victoria's wholesale spot market has been designed to address operational and market issues due to the physical characteristics of the Victorian gas pipeline system

  14. High-frequency Research of Stock Index Futures-spot Market Volatility Spillover---Wavelet Noise Reduction based on the EEMD%高频股指期现货市场波动溢出效应的研究--基于EEMD的小波降噪

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱莉

    2015-01-01

    It is always a hotspot to use high-frequent data as the proof for the Volatility Spillover Effect in the spot and future markets in both theoretical and practical fields, but the high-frequent data is susceptible to the pollution of noise. Based on the disa-dvantage of high-frequent data, there are two methods come out with: first, verifying the validity, is to create a new method to reduce noise, like EEMD + Wavelet Soft Threshold Noise Reduction Method; second is applying the high-frequent data, which has already acc-epted the Noise Reduction, to the study of BEK-GARCH Model for the Volatility Spillover Effect. Both spot and future markets contain larger Volatility Agglomeration Effects , after verifying that the reductions of noise influence from microstructure. The spot markets in China influence on the future markets in short and long terms, but future markets only have effects on the volatility of spot markets in short term. Also, the influence of the future markets to spot markets is greater than that of the spot markets on the futures markets in short term. Overall, the impact of spot markets to futures markets from stock index in China is sustainable.%利用高频数据进行股指期现货市场波动溢出的研究一直是理论界和实务界研究的热点,但是高频数据易受噪音污染,基于此,文章在这些方面做了一些研究:一是提出新的降噪方法, EEMD+小波软阈值降噪法,并验证了其有效性。二是把降噪后高频数据应用于BEKK-GARCH模型研究波动溢出。经验证,降低微观结构噪音影响后,两个市场均存在较大的波动率聚集效应,我国现货市场的冲击在短期、长期均会对期货市场产生影响,期货则仅在短期对现货市场波动有影响,但短期内期货市场对现货市场的影响大于现货对期货市场的影响。总体上看,我国股指现货市场对期货市场的影响较持久。

  15. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Vehviläinen, Iivo

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price mo...

  16. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, I.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

  17. Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

  18. Integration project of regional markets in Europe (European directive)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Fernandez-Castaneda, J. J.

    2010-01-01

    The article presents the current situation of the Day-Ahead electricity markets in the different countries and Regions along West Europe. It describes the different possibilities applied to congestion management in the borders between countries and price areas, and the options employed to couple Day-ahead markets to form regional markets in Europe. Finally, it presents the initiative to Price couple Regional markets (PCR) that is being developed by Nord pool spot, EPEX Spot and OMEL with the objective to advance towards the integration of the markets that they operate in the internal Electricity Market. (Author)

  19. A NEW EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE PLATINUM SPOT RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Kruse

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The global platinum market has been in downturn and unstable for five consecutive years, and thus market participants are demanding effective quantitative risk management tools. Since platinum is so widely used and serves as an important investment vehicle, the importance of risk management of platinum spot returns cannot be understated. In this paper, we take advantage of a very popular econometric model, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model, for platinum returns. We received two important findings by using the conventional GARCH models in explain daily platinum spot returns. First, it is crucial to introduce heavy-tailed distribution to explain conditional heavy tails; and second, the NRIG distribution performs better than the most widely-used heavy-tailed distribution, the Student’s t distribution.

  20. Market values summary/October market review/current market data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October uranium market summary. During this period, volume increased to 2.2 Mlb U3O8 on the spot concentrates market. The unrestricted and restricted exchange values remained steady at $7.00 and $9.05 per pound U3O8 respectively. There were two UF6 deals during this period, and with supply more than adequate to meet the demand, the restricted UF6 price remained unchanged at $29.00 per kgU as UF6. The unrestricted value increased slightly to $24.50. The conversion value was unchanged, and the enrichment services market/prices weakened. Both active supply and demand decreased during this period

  1. Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redl, Christian; Haas, Reinhard; Huber, Claus; Boehm, Bernhard

    2009-01-01

    Since the liberalisation of the European electricity sector, forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons. For pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non-storability of electricity. In this case, according to economic theory, forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations. In the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the European Energy Exchange and the Nord Pool Power Exchange. In fact, price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long-term contracts. Although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures-spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out. (author)

  2. "An Asymptotic Expansion Approach to Currency Options with a Market Model of Interest Rates under Stochastic Volatility Processes of Spot Exchange Rates"

    OpenAIRE

    Akihiko Takahashi; Kohta Takehara

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an asymptotic expansion scheme of currency options with a libor market model of interest rates and stochastic volatility models of spot exchange rates. In particular, we derive closed-form approximation formulas for the density functions of the underlying assets and for pricing currency options based on the third order asymptotic expansion scheme; we do not model a foreign exchange rate's variance such as in Heston[1993], but its volatility that follows a general time-inho...

  3. Is there an east-west split in North American natural gas markets?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, A. [Univ. of Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    1997-02-01

    In the last decade, the North American natural gas industry has seen a dramatic transformation from a highly regulated industry to one which is more market-driven. The transition to a less regulated, more market-oriented environment has led to the emergence of different spot markets throughout North America. In particular, producing area spot markets have emerged in Alberta, British Columbia, Rocky Mountain, Anadarko, San Juan, Permian, South Texas, and Louisiana basins. Moreover, production sites, pipelines and storage services are more accessible today, thereby ensuring that changes in market demand and supply are reflected in prices on spot, future, and swaps markets. The paper is organized as follows. The second section provides some background regarding North America natural gas spot markets. The third section discusses the data and investigates the univariate time series properties of the variables, since meaningful cointegration tests critically depend on such properties. The fourth section tests for cointegration and presents the results. The last section concludes the paper. 16 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  4. Market integration of Virtual Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Mette Kirschmeyer; Hansen, Lars Henrik; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2013-01-01

    develop a three stage market model, which includes Day-Ahead (Spot), Intra-Day and Regulating Power Markets. This allows us to test the hypothesis that the Virtual Power Plant can generate additional profit by trading across several markets. We find that even though profits do increase as more markets...

  5. O gigante adormecido vem pra rua: construções enunciativas de Johnnie Walker e Fiat durante as manifestações brasileiras de 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Fernandes da Silva Mandaji

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available O tema deste trabalho são as manifestações ocorridas nos meses de junho e julho de 2013 em todo o Brasil. Trata-se de uma reflexão sobre as construções enunciativas de discursos midiáticos no cenário nacional e internacional.  Esta investigação se propõe a entender os processos enunciativos, e portanto, discursivos e interacionais no uso da materialidade sincrética e audiovisual de anúncios publicitários das marcas Johnnie Walker e Fiat. Tanto a campanha “Keep walking, Brazil” como  a “Vem pra rua” da Fiat foram (re contextualizadas em outros processos enunciativos durante as manifestações brasileiras. Será possível identificar que tipo de interação discursiva ocorre entre marcas e público a partir de tal (re contextualização? Qual relação enunciativa existe entre as marcas e as manifestações e quais são os papeis enunciativos e discursivos propostos por tal relação?  Tais perguntas irão nos levar ao contexto de produção das campanhas, mas também a uma nova apreensão de sentido pautada por processos enunciativos que não os das próprias marcas, mas sim, de novas posições enunciativas. A base metodológica guia-se pelos estudos da Semiótica Discursiva de A. J. Greimas e pelos pressupostos teóricos da Sociossemiótica proposto por Eric Landowski e nas pesquisas de Ana Claudia de Oliveira.

  6. The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Is It Applicable to the Foreign Exchange Market?

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, James

    2004-01-01

    The study analyses the applicability of the efficient market hypothesis to the foreign exchange market by testing the profitability of the filter rule on the spot market. The significance of the returns was validated by comparing them to the returns from randomly generated shuffled series via bootstrap methods. The results were surprising. For the total period (1984-2003) small filter rules could deliver significant returns indicating an inefficient foreign exchange market. However, once the ...

  7. Molybdenum market in transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutulov, A.

    1980-01-01

    Since the beginning of 1980 - after seven years of constant unbalance between supply and demand of molybdenum, characterized by a demand overhang and after two years of unprecedented spot market prices - clear signals for a consolidation of the molybdenum market can be recognized. (orig.) [de

  8. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norouzzadeh, Payam; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, Bahareh

    2007-01-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal

  9. Asymmetric price responses, market integration and market power: A study of the U.S. natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murry, Donald; Zhu, Zhen

    2008-01-01

    We studied the market performance at selected, representative natural gas trading hubs in the U.S. and documented different price behaviors among various hubs. With NYMEX prices as the competitive benchmark, we found empirically that the spot price responses at some trading hubs were systematically asymmetric, thus demonstrating a market advantage by either buyers or sellers. We further found that the presence of market power was a very plausible explanation for this price behavior at some hubs. (author)

  10. Water: The Only Factor Influencing the Price of Energy in the Spot Market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian electric energy generation system is based on its hydroelectric power plants, making the country dependent on proper rainfall and, thus, raising the possibility of energy stress situations, such as the energy-rationing scenario observed in the beginning of the century and the latest water crisis (2014. Moments of water scarcity are followed by an increase in energy prices, which affects the economy as whole. Therefore, it is relevant to understand which factors in the Brazilian Electric System affect the energy price and the individual importance of each. This paper aimed to analyze which the key variables influencing the energy price in the spot market are by using official data from the National Electric System Operator. The used data was from the period July/2001 to July/2014, which was employed in a multiple regression methodology along with time series. The results suggest an inverse relationship between the natural flow of rivers (directly related to rainfall and the energy price. Moreover, they also point to an inverse relationship between the potential energy stored in reservoirs as water and the energy price.

  11. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  12. Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

  13. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-10-15

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  14. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  15. European gas oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, D.

    1991-04-01

    The developments over the past five years of the bulk markets for gas oil in Europe are examined using advanced econometric techniques to study the related issues of pricing efficiency and hedge efficiency. The study attempts to preserve the fluctuations of the actual data as these provide insights into the process of price discovery. The markets studied include the spot, forward and futures markets and looks for evidence of differentiated markets. (UK)

  16. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

    1998-01-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  17. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lilleberg, J; Laitinen, E K [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  18. Prices dip, activity increases in unrestricted uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    April's activity in the restricted uranium market fluctuated in the same range as that observed in March. At the same time, NUKEM detects a weakening of prices in the unrestricted market to $7.45-$7.65. Unrestricted buyers seem to have detected lower prices as well; much of the new demand noted this month emerged in the unrestricted segment of the market. With this issue, NUKEM inaugurates a new market statistic. To better follow developments in the conversion market, we will report a spot price range for conversion services. This price measure will be derived in a manner analogous to NUKEM's other spot market price ranges. We will continue to publish the current NUKEM price range for new contracts for a few months. If you wish to retain the old conversion contract price range in future editions, please contact our US office. Four deals for near term delivery occurred in the uranium market in April, resulting in spot market transaction volume of 2.5 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. In the first week, a US non-utility purchased a small quantity of enriched uranium product from an intermediary in a spot transaction representing about 75,000 lbs U3O8. The second week saw the stealthy purchase of Portland General Electric's inventory of natural and enriched uranium. The buyer of PGE's 1.1 million lbs U3O8 equivalent has achieved an unusual degree of anonymity. Also during the second week, a US utility bought a small quantity of enriched uranium containing less than 25,000 lbs natural U3O8 equivalent

  19. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  20. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    2014-04-15

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  1. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  2. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  3. First half 1990 market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    A review of spot, neart-term and long-term uranium sales for the first half of 1990 is presented. The following factors have come to dominate the market: there have been sharp reductions in near-term supply; heavy, visible, and continuing procurement activity of some producers; concerns that market participants with outstanding loans might suddenly become large buyers, in order to replace material previously borrowed; utility decisions; and recognition that, in light of the longer-term supply/demand balance, and uranium production costs, the very absolute level of spot prices (below $9.00) could not be maintained indefinitely

  4. Capacity investment and competition in decentralized electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David Cameron

    1997-11-01

    With particular reference to the recently deregulated and market-based electricity industries in Norway, the UK and elsewhere the report analyses oligopoly entry and capacity investment decisions as a non-cooperative game in a decentralized electricity market. A two-stage game is considered, with multiple capacity types and uncertain demand, in which capacity decisions are made prior to spot-market, or price competition. Equilibrium outcomes for different pricing mechanisms or regulatory regimes are analysed. The following questions are dealt with in particular: Will industry capacity be sufficient to ensure adequate supply security? Does imperfect competition in the spot-market lead to an inefficient mix of base-load and peak-load technologies? How do different regulatory policies affect the market outcomes? 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Modelling the benchmark spot curve for the Serbian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drenovak Mikica

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to estimate Serbian benchmark spot curves using the Svensson parametric model. The main challenges that we tackle are: sparse data, different currency denominations of short and longer term maturities, and infrequent transactions in the short-term market segment vs daily traded medium and long-term market segment. We find that the model is flexible enough to account for most of the data variability. The model parameters are interpreted in economic terms.

  6. The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

    2018-01-01

    The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

  7. Which way the natural gas price. An attempt to predict the direction of natural gas spot price movements using trader positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchanan, W.K.; Hodges, P.; Theis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This research provides a method of predicting direction of spot price movements in the natural gas market for the month succeeding from market participants positions in the futures market. Cumby and Modest (Cumby, R.E., Modest, D.M., 1987. Testing for market timing ability: a framework for forecast evaluation. Journal of Financial Economics 19, 169-189) provide the backdrop for analyzing the futures market positions of large hedgers and speculators to arrive at conclusions of market price movements in the spot market. This methodology is suggested as a means for municipalities entering the natural gas market to improve upon their ordering of quantities of gas for the ensuing months in order to take advantage of possibly foreseeable price trends

  8. Task Balanced Workflow Scheduling Technique considering Task Processing Rate in Spot Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daeyong Jung

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the cloud computing is a computing paradigm that constitutes an advanced computing environment that evolved from the distributed computing. And the cloud computing provides acquired computing resources in a pay-as-you-go manner. For example, Amazon EC2 offers the Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS instances in three different ways with different price, reliability, and various performances of instances. Our study is based on the environment using spot instances. Spot instances can significantly decrease costs compared to reserved and on-demand instances. However, spot instances give a more unreliable environment than other instances. In this paper, we propose the workflow scheduling scheme that reduces the out-of-bid situation. Consequently, the total task completion time is decreased. The simulation results reveal that, compared to various instance types, our scheme achieves performance improvements in terms of an average combined metric of 12.76% over workflow scheme without considering the processing rate. However, the cost in our scheme is higher than an instance with low performance and is lower than an instance with high performance.

  9. A Future Market Reduces Bubbles but Allows Greater Profit for More Sophisticated Traders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noussair, C.N.; Tucker, S.; Xu, Yilong

    2014-01-01

    We study the effect of the addition of a futures market, in which contracts maturing in the last period of the life of the asset can be traded. Our experiment has two treatments, one in which a spot market operates on its own, and a second treatment in which a spot and futures market are active

  10. The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

    2017-01-01

    Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

  11. Is there a Sweet Spot in Ethical Trade?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Thomsen, Peter; Lindgreen, Adam

    2018-01-01

    We undertake a critical appraisal of the existence of the so- called 'sweet spot' in ethical trade at which the interests of buyers, suppliers, and workers intersect to enable benefits for commercial buyers and suppliers and improvements in the conditions of workers at the base of global production...... networks. In turn, we take the perspectives of three central actors typically involved in ethical trade: buyers/brands, suppliers in the Global South, and workers at the base of these networks. By applying all three perspectives, we theorize about the circumstances in which the sweet spot in ethical trade...... might emerge, reflecting an amended version of Gereffi et al.'s (2005) theory of value chain governance. We conclude that the possibility of identifying a sweet spot in ethical trade improves as we move from market-based transactions toward hierarchical governance in global production networks....

  12. Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen

    2007-01-01

    We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)

  13. Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobaek Haff, Ingrid; Lindqvist, Ola; Loeland, Anders

    2008-01-01

    This report investigates the UK natural gas market, and tests whether it is a fair-game efficient forward market, using forward contracts ranging from one to five months time to delivery. The forward and spot price series are separately non-stationary, but cointegrated. Furthermore, the forward prices are biased predictors of both the future spot and the 1-month-ahead forward price. The risk premium on the forward prices is positive, as opposed to the US gas market, where the risk premium was found to be negative in similar work. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the storage model is an incomplete model for the relationship between the spot and forward prices. However, storage has a clear effect on this relationship, an effect that appears to be non-linear. (author)

  14. Competition and equilibria in electricity markets based on two-settlement system: A conjectural variation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, David

    This dissertation studies electricity markets based on two-settlement systems and applies the concept of conjectural variation (CV) as a tool for representing different levels of competitiveness in the market. Some recent theoretical works are addressed to support the use of CV as a solution concept. A notion of consistency is introduced to make the level of competitiveness of the market endogenous, and allows finding consistent CV equilibria and the corresponding conditions for existence of equilibria. First, a case is studied in which firms hold exogenous levels of forward commitments. Then, backward induction and sub-game perfection are used to solve sequentially for the spot and forward market equilibrium. This allows analyzing how firms take positions in the forward market, based on considering their later impact on the spot market. It is concluded that positions taken in the forward market depend largely on firms expectations about the competitiveness of both the spot and the forward market. Forward markets are welfare enhancing even if they are not as competitive as the associated spot market as long as they are not too oligopolistie. The above formulation is used to model a dynamic scenario to analyze market stability, linking this research to Dr. Alvarado's earlier research on market stability. This brings about interesting trade offs between market power and market stability.

  15. Marketing trials, marketing tricks - how to spot them and how to stop them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matheson, Alastair

    2017-03-08

    Last this year in this journal, Barbour and colleagues reported a study of "marketing trials" in leading medical journals (Trials 2016;17:31). In this commentary I discuss their research, describe new analyses of the study cohort and consider measures to address marketing within academic medical literature. Barbour et al. sought to identify a subgroup of "marketing trials" within leading medical journals, but in reality, nearly all industry-financed trials serve marketing functions, and many exhibit marketing-related features, including biases, in their framing, methodology or reporting. I conducted new analyses of the cohort of Barbour et al., showing that most trials funded exclusively by drug manufacturers had direct involvement of the manufacturer in design, analysis and reporting, and features supportive of product seeding. However, these commercial enterprises were without exception presented to journal readers as academic-led projects, using attributional spin, which should itself be considered an important form of marketing bias. Barbour et al. correctly conclude that commercial bias in industry clinical trials articles often requires expertise to recognize, and in many cases cannot be identified from the published journal report. Several potential remedies are discussed, including independent clinical research, data sharing, improved reporting guidance, improved tools for assessing research quality, reforms to article attribution, submission checklists and new editorial standards. Medicine's journals have a responsibility to uphold rigorous scientific and reporting standards, require ready trials data access and ensure the commercial dimensions of research are brought prominently to their readers' attention. Failure to meet these responsibilities constitutes an enduring threat to the integrity of biomedical literature.

  16. The regulating power market on the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. An econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.

    1999-08-01

    What differentiates the structure of Nord Pool from other power exchanges around the world is the way the balance from the spot market is maintained until the actual, physical delivery takes place, via the regulating power market in Norway. This paper reveals the pattern of the prices on the regulating power market, by analysing the cost of being unable to fulfil the commitments made on the spot market. Some power producers with unpredictable fluctuations (e.g. wind) will need to buy regulation services. The disclosed pattern implies that these producers must pay a limited premium of readiness in addition to the spot price; this premium is independent of the amount of regulation. The level of the premium of readiness for down-regulation is shown to be strongly influenced by the level of the spot price. On the other hand, it is demonstrated that the premium for up-regulation is less correlated to the spot price. Furthermore, it is found that the amount of regulation affects the price of regulating power for up-regulation more strongly than it does for down-regulation. The disclosed cost of using the regulating power market is a quadratic function of the amount of regulation. This asymmetric cost may encourage bidders with fluctuating production to be more strategic in their way of bidding on the spot market. By using such strategies the extra costs (for example wind power) needed to counter unpredictable fluctuations may be limited. 12 refs

  17. The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (author)

  18. Empirical Study on Arbitrage Opportunities in China Copper Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in fuuaes markets. The empirical results find that there are many lower bound arbitrage opportunities in China copper futures market from August 8th, 2003 to August 16th, 2005. Concretely, no-arbitrage opportunity is dominant and lower bound arbitrage is narrow in normal market segment. Lower bound arbitrage almost always exists with huge magnitude in inverted market segment. There is basically no-arbitrage in normal market because spot volume is enough, so that upper or lower bound arbitrage can be realized. There is mostly lower bound arbitrage in inverted market because spot volume is lack.

  19. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)

  20. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems

  1. The pricing of natural gas in US markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, S.P.A.; Yucel, M.K.

    1993-01-01

    Our econometric evidence indicates that changes in natural gas prices are unequal in the long run. Nonetheless, all downstream prices change by at least as much as the average well-head price. Statistically, residential and commercial prices change as much as the city gate price. In the face of persistent shocks, however, market institutions and market dynamics can lead to lengthy periods in which the residential and commercial prices of natural gas adjust less than the wellhead or city gate prices. Electrical and industrial users of natural gas rely heavily on spot supplies and can switch fuels easily. Their ability to switch fuels may be related to the development of a spot market to serve them. Reliance on the spot market may explain why these end users have seen a greater reduction in natural gas prices than have the LDCs over the past seven years. The ability to switch fuels may account for electrical and industrial prices being the source of shocks in their relationships with the wellhead price. It also may explain why prices in these end-sue markets are quick to adjust. Commercial and residential customers cannot switch fuels easily and rely heavily on LDCs for their natural gas. The inability of these end users to switch fuels probably contributes to the reluctance of LDCs to purchase spot supplies of gas. Reliance on contract supplies may explain why the city gate price has not declined as much as electrical and industrial prices of natural gas over the past seven years. Furthermore, the LDCs administer prices in the commercial and residential markets under state regulation

  2. Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

  3. Wholesale electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rios, J. L.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

  4. March market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The spot market price for uranium in unrestricted markets weakened further during March, and at month end, the NUEXCO Exchange Value had fallen $0.15, to $7.45 per pound U3O8. The Restricted American Market Penalty (RAMP) for concentrates increased $0.15, to $2.55 per pound U3O8. Ample UF6 supplies and limited demand led to a $0.50 decrease in the UF6 Value, to $25.00 per kgU as UF6, while the RAMP for UF6 increased $0.75, to $5.25 per kgU. Nine near-term uranium transactions were reported, totalling almost 3.3 million pounds equivalent U3O8. This is the largest monthly spot market volume since October 1992, and is double the volume reported in January and February. The March 31 Conversion Value was $4.25 per kgU as UF6. Beginning with the March 31 Value, NUEXCO now reports its Conversion Value in US dollars per kilogram of uranium (US$/kgU), reflecting current industry practice. The March loan market was inactive with no transactions reported. The Loan Rate remained unchanged at 3.0 percent per annum. Low demand and increased competition among sellers led to a one-dollar decrease in the SWU Value, to $65 per SWU, and the RAMP for SWU declined one dollar, to $9 per SWU

  5. Chromium(VI) release from leather and metals can be detected with a diphenylcarbazide spot test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bregnbak, David; Johansen, Jeanne D.; Jellesen, Morten Stendahl

    2015-01-01

    Along with chromium, nickel and cobalt are the clinically most important metal allergens. However, unlike for nickel and cobalt, there is no validated colorimetric spot test that detects chromium. Such a test could help both clinicians and their patients with chromium dermatitis to identify culprit...... exposures. To evaluate the use of diphenylcarbazide (DPC) as a spot test reagent for the identification of chromium(VI) release. A colorimetric chromium(VI) spot test based on DPC was prepared and used on different items from small market surveys. The DPC spot test was able to identify chromium(VI) release...

  6. Integration and shock transmissions across European electricity forward markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Gianfreda, Angelica

    2010-01-01

    New results are presented relating to the integration of the French, German, British, Dutch and Spanish power markets at day-ahead, week-ahead, one month-ahead and two month-ahead lead times. Overall, there is evidence of market integration, increasing over time, despite an underlying inefficiency in each market with respect to the forward and spot price convergence. The spatial analysis, on a financial dimension, is undertaken using causality tests, cointegration and impulse-response techniques, for both price levels and volatilities. In general we find less influence of the size and proximity of neighbouring markets than other studies, more integration at baseload than peak, and, surprisingly, less integration in forwards than spot prices. (author)

  7. Price convergence and information efficiency in German natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Growitsch, Christian; Stronzik, Marcus; Nepal, Rabindra

    2012-01-01

    In 2007, Germany changed network access regulation in the natural gas sector and introduced a so-called entry-exit system. The re-regulation's spot market effects remain to be examined. We use cointegration analysis and a state space model with time-varying coefficients to study the development of natural gas spot prices in the two major trading hubs in Germany and the interlinked Dutch spot market. To analyse information efficiency in more detail, the state space model is extended to an error correction model. Overall, our results suggest a reasonable degree of price convergence between the corresponding hubs. However, allowing for time-variant adjustment processes, the remaining price differentials are only partly explained by transportation costs, indicating capacity constraints. Nonetheless, market efficiency in terms of information processing has increased considerably among Germany and The Netherlands.

  8. Chromium(VI) release from leather and metals can be detected with a diphenylcarbazide spot test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bregnbak, David; Johansen, Jeanne D; Jellesen, Morten S; Zachariae, Claus; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2015-11-01

    Along with chromium, nickel and cobalt are the clinically most important metal allergens. However, unlike for nickel and cobalt, there is no validated colorimetric spot test that detects chromium. Such a test could help both clinicians and their patients with chromium dermatitis to identify culprit exposures. To evaluate the use of diphenylcarbazide (DPC) as a spot test reagent for the identification of chromium(VI) release. A colorimetric chromium(VI) spot test based on DPC was prepared and used on different items from small market surveys. The DPC spot test was able to identify chromium(VI) release at 0.5 ppm without interference from other pure metals, alloys, or leather. A market survey using the test showed no chromium(VI) release from work tools (0/100). However, chromium(VI) release from metal screws (7/60), one earring (1/50), leather shoes (4/100) and leather gloves (6/11) was observed. We found no false-positive test reactions. Confirmatory testing was performed with X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and spectrophotometrically on extraction fluids. The use of DPC as a colorimetric spot test reagent appears to be a good and valid test method for detecting the release of chromium(VI) ions from leather and metal articles. The spot test has the potential to become a valuable screening tool. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Data driven marketing for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Semmelroth, David

    2013-01-01

    Embrace data and use it to sell and market your products Data is everywhere and it keeps growing and accumulating. Companies need to embrace big data and make it work harder to help them sell and market their products. Successful data analysis can help marketing professionals spot sales trends, develop smarter marketing campaigns, and accurately predict customer loyalty. Data Driven Marketing For Dummies helps companies use all the data at their disposal to make current customers more satisfied, reach new customers, and sell to their most important customer segments more efficiently. Identifyi

  10. The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, R.; Auer, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

  11. Market power and technological bias in electricity generation markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twomey, Paul; Neuhoff, Karsten

    2005-01-01

    It is difficult or very costly to avoid all market power in electricity markets. A recurring response is that a limited amount of market power is accepted with the justification that it is necessary to produce revenues to cover some of the fixed costs. It is assumed that all market participants benefit equally from the increased prices. However, this assumption is not satisfied if different production technologies are used. We assess the case of a generation mix of conventional generation and intermittent generation with exogenously varying production levels. If all output is sold in the spot market, then intermittent generation benefits less from market power than conventional generation. If forward contracts or option contracts are signed, then market power might be reduced but the bias against returns to intermittent generators persists. Thus allowing some level of market power as a means of encouraging investment in new generation may result in a bias against intermittent technologies or increase the costs of strategic deployment to achieve renewable quotas. (Author)

  12. Liver spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... skin changes - liver spots; Senile or solar lentigines; Skin spots - aging; Age spots ... Liver spots are changes in skin color that occur in older skin. The coloring may be due to aging, exposure to the sun ...

  13. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

  14. 28 June 2017 - Italian Agnelli Foundation Vice Chairman, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Chairman, J. Elkann signing the guest book with CERN Director-General F. Gianotti

    CERN Multimedia

    Bennett, Sophia Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    from left to right in 53__MA27642: Scuola di Alta Formazione al Management Project manager R. Movva; Agnelli Foundation Director A. Gavosto; Agnelli Foundation Head of Innovation A. Griva; Scuola di Alta Formazione al Management Director S. Pettochi; Agnelli Foundation Vice Chairman, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Chairman J. Elkann; CERN Director-General F. Gianotti; Director for International Relations C. Warakaulle; Management Liaison for the Italian Republic, Engineering Department Head R. Losito; Knowledge Transfer Group Leader G. Anelli. Signature of the Framework agreement between the Scuola di Alta Formazione al Management, represented by Director S. Petocchi and CERN, represented by Director-General F. Gianotti, witnessed by Agnelli Foundation Vice Chairman J. Elkann.

  15. New futures markets in agricultural production rights: possibilities and constraints for the Dutch and British milkquota markets.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1998-01-01

    Farms are increasingly being affected by policies that involve production rights. Because of fluctuations in the prices of these rights in the spot market, farmers face a price risk. Establishing a futures market might enable them to hedge against this price risk. Rights futures have some features

  16. The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

  17. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-01-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

  18. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  19. Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitan Herraiz, Alvaro; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos

    2009-01-01

    Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the Iberian Power Futures Market is not optimal for remuneration purposes as it seems to be slightly upward biased. In the period considered (August 2006-July 2008), monthly futures contracts behave similarly to quarterly contracts. Average risk premia have been positive in power and natural gas markets but negative in oil and coal markets. Different hypotheses are tested regarding increasing volatility with maturity and regarding Forward Risk Premium variations (decreasing with variance of spot prices during delivery period and increasing with skewness of spot prices during delivery period). Enlarged data sets are recommended for stronger test results. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. Regarding the emerging Iberian Power Futures Market, price efficiency is improved with market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. (author)

  20. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  1. Volatility Spillovers in Capesize Forward Freight Agreement Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxing Gong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is to investigate spillovers in the Capesize forward freight agreements (FFAs markets before and after the global financial crisis. The paper chooses four Capesize voyage routes FFAs (C3, C4, C5, and C7, two time-charter routes FFAs (BCIT/C average, BPI T/C average, and spot rates as research subjects, covering the periods 3 January 2006 to 24 December 2015. This paper applies Volatility Spillover Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (VS-MSV model to analyze volatility spillover effects and estimates the parameters via software of Bayesian inference using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS, the deviance information criterion (DIC used for goodness-of-fit model. The results suggest that there are volatility spillover effects in certain Capesize FFAs routes, and the effects from spot rates to FFAs take place before crisis, yet they are bilateral after crisis. With the development of shipping markets, the correlations between FFAs and spot rate are enhanced, and it seems that the effects depend on market information and traders’ behavior. So practitioners could make decisions according to the spillovers.

  2. Spot sale of uncommitted LNG from Middle East: Japan or the UK?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikhalat-Jahromi, Hamed; Bell, Michael G.H.; Fontes, Dalila B.M.M.; Cochrane, Robert A.; Angeloudis, Panagiotis

    2016-01-01

    The importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rising as demand for it grows rapidly and steadily due to growth in energy demand, the transition to a low carbon economy and the longer distances over which natural gas is now traded. Given its importance, this work proposes an optimization model that assists to decide on when and where LNG should be delivered by coordinating tanker type, assignment and routing, inventory management, contract obligations, arbitrage and uncommitted LNG. The model maximizes the profit mainly by taking advantage of price differences between different markets. The contributions of this work are twofold. First, following the analysis of expenses and revenues, a new mixed integer programming model for LNG liquefaction and shipping is proposed from a corporate finance perspective. Furthermore, a solution approach for it is implemented and tested. Second, the model is used to derive a short term trade policy for the Middle Eastern LNG producers regarding the spot sale of their uncommitted product to Japan or to the UK, namely to: dispatch to whichever market has the higher current spot price, regardless of the variability of the transport expenses. - Highlights: •The cash-flow of an LNG producer in operational planning is examined. •An LNG inventory routing problem for EBITDA maximization is formulated. •A project in Middle East for studying the spot sale of uncommitted LNG is created. •In sale to Japan and the UK the market with the higher price should be picked.

  3. A preliminary assessment of the market coupling arrangement on the Kontek cable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristiansen, Tarjei

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the market coupling arrangement on the Kontek (KT) cable between East Denmark and Germany and an assessment of the original auction mechanism. KT, the new spot price area, was introduced in Germany on October 5, 2005 to facilitate a market coupling arrangement on the KT cable between East Denmark and Germany. We would expect the KT price to correlate more with the European Energy Exchange (EEX) price because arbitrage normally levelizes the price. However, spot prices in late 2005 were both high and volatile because congestion management practices in Sweden transferred internal bottlenecks to the cable between Sweden and East Denmark. Since spot prices were equal in East Denmark and the KT area for a substantial time, it implies that some hours had no congestion on the KT cable. Market players valued the previous monthly auctions for transmission capacity more than the daily auctions. Compared to the daily auctions, market players received smaller payoffs on average for the market coupling arrangement, and the smallest payoffs for the monthly auctions

  4. Competing in a deregulated market : what are we learning from the Alberta experience?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrell, D.

    2002-01-01

    A history of the deregulation schedule in Alberta was presented. The spot market in the province opened in January 1996. What Albertans wanted from deregulation was a competitive power generation market, a liquid spot market, a liquid forward market, competitive retail market, a clear transmission policy, transparent pricing, and innovation. They got a competitive power generation market and a liquid spot market, but with few buyers and an unclear transmission policy with only medium transparency in prices. Innovation was seen in the form of small power and distributed generation such as wind energy. In 2001, the Alberta government stepped in to subsidize consumers because wholesale prices were trading at record highs. In 2002 wholesale prices collapsed. It was shown that prices have declined in Alberta as supply and demand came into balance. The Keephills Generating Plants 3 and 4 will have a large impact on the market in 2005. It was emphasized that new transmission would unlock additional potential market for Alberta generation. The paper presented viewgraphs showing existing generation capacity and the high Alberta prices following deregulation. It was noted that commodity cycles dominate growth plans in the electric power industry. The four generation markets in Alberta were identified. The lesson learned from past experience is that price signals will attract new generators to the market and that government leadership must be consistent. 4 tabs., 6 figs

  5. Belpex and trilateral market coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-01-15

    This document describes the operation of Belpex, the Belgian power transmission spot market, and its linking with the French (Powernext) and Dutch (APX) auction-style day-ahead spot markets. A last part deals with the extension of this trilateral market to other European countries. Content: Belpex day-ahead market (DAM) (Goals of the DAM: Provide consumers with a wider choice of electrical energy sources, Enable the ARP's to optimize their portfolio in terms of imbalance costs, Reduce trade and credit risks for market players compared with the risks involved in concluding bilateral contracts, Provide economic players with a transparent price benchmark, Stimulate the opening of the electricity market); Market model Product (description, Contracts, Collateral calculation, From 12 January to launch date Corporate and Legal Aspects, Next developments); Trilateral Market Coupling (What is market coupling and what are the benefits?, Implementation of trilateral market coupling ('TLC') in France/Belgium/Netherlands, From Trilateral to Multilateral, Implementation of Trilateral Market Coupling (TLC) in France/Belgium/Netherlands, Decentralized market coupling mechanism, influence of import and export on area prices); Decentralized market coupling (2 countries Situations: unconstrained/constrained, Decentralized market coupling: 3 countries, High Level Properties of Market Coupling, Maximize flow until prices across link converge (or ATC limit reached), Power flows from low price area to high price area, Implementing a decentralized technical approach, Market Coupling Daily Process, Impact on Existing Exchange Arrangements, Implementing a decentralized contractual approach, TLC Project Process); From Trilateral to Multilateral (Geographic extensions, Towards an Open and Multilateral Market Coupling, Management of Interconnection Capacities, Interconnection Capacities: current situation, TSO Roles and Responsibilities in the TLC, Other Import/Export products

  6. Belpex and trilateral market coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This document describes the operation of Belpex, the Belgian power transmission spot market, and its linking with the French (Powernext) and Dutch (APX) auction-style day-ahead spot markets. A last part deals with the extension of this trilateral market to other European countries. Content: Belpex day-ahead market (DAM) (Goals of the DAM: Provide consumers with a wider choice of electrical energy sources, Enable the ARP's to optimize their portfolio in terms of imbalance costs, Reduce trade and credit risks for market players compared with the risks involved in concluding bilateral contracts, Provide economic players with a transparent price benchmark, Stimulate the opening of the electricity market); Market model Product (description, Contracts, Collateral calculation, From 12 January to launch date Corporate and Legal Aspects, Next developments); Trilateral Market Coupling (What is market coupling and what are the benefits?, Implementation of trilateral market coupling ('TLC') in France/Belgium/Netherlands, From Trilateral to Multilateral, Implementation of Trilateral Market Coupling (TLC) in France/Belgium/Netherlands, Decentralized market coupling mechanism, influence of import and export on area prices); Decentralized market coupling (2 countries Situations: unconstrained/constrained, Decentralized market coupling: 3 countries, High Level Properties of Market Coupling, Maximize flow until prices across link converge (or ATC limit reached), Power flows from low price area to high price area, Implementing a decentralized technical approach, Market Coupling Daily Process, Impact on Existing Exchange Arrangements, Implementing a decentralized contractual approach, TLC Project Process); From Trilateral to Multilateral (Geographic extensions, Towards an Open and Multilateral Market Coupling, Management of Interconnection Capacities, Interconnection Capacities: current situation, TSO Roles and Responsibilities in the TLC, Other Import/Export products on the

  7. Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

    2004-01-01

    with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...... the consequences of acting in a liberalised market for a given CHP plant, based on the abovementioned bottom-up model. The key assumption determining the bottom line is the electricity spot price. The formation of the spot price in the Nordic area depends heavily upon the state of the water reservoirs in Norway...

  8. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia; Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom

    2010-01-01

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  9. Vertical integration and market power. A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration. (author)

  10. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W., E-mail: dbunn@london.ed [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  11. Market regulation in Central America and Bit-Energy.CEL as tool for improving the self regulating forces for a liberalised market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reisinger, H.; Reuter, A.; Dulle, H.

    2002-01-01

    Following a power purchase agreement for constructing new generation capacity, the privatisation of the distribution and thermal generation assets, as well as a separation of the transmission assets from the hydro power generation assets, the government of El Salvador by 1998 decided to proceed with market liberalisation by establishing a day-ahead spot market. This spot market covers not only 40 percent of the total electricity demand but also determines the price for the remaining 60 percent, which are directly contracted between distribution companies and large final consumers on the one side and the power generators on the other side.With only 4 thermal generators and 1 hydro power generator supplying the market, the total construction, right from the beginning suffered from lack of competition. This was especially true in spring 2000 when all the water from the hydro power reservoirs was used up. The result was a price hike, similar to the one experienced later in California. The reaction of the government of El Salvador was to induce 'private' agreements among the generators not to go beyond a certain price limit and to make the still nationalised hydro power generator pay for that agreement. In addition to that the hydro power generator received the responsibility to keep the total market price at a certain monthly average.As the thermal generators could anticipate the offered strategy of the hydro power generator they also could make use of this construction and considerably increase their profits. The hydro power generator on the other hand loses more and more market control and must use up all its water for keeping the prices low. The way out of this situation, which in the long run, inevitably would lead to an inefficient market comprises following 5 measures all aimed at fostering the competition within the market: 1. the construction of an additional transmission line for strengthening the power exchange capacity with neighbouring countries; 2. the

  12. Portfolio optimization in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)

  13. Three Steps to Engage Volunteers in Membership Marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossell, Tony

    2011-01-01

    There is a big world out there, and volunteers can make a significant impact in helping one reach out to others and grow his/her PTA membership. In fact, word-of-mouth marketing tied for the top spot as the most effective method of new member recruitment in Marketing General's 2010 Membership Marketing Benchmarking Report. So getting volunteers'…

  14. CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. WILMAR - deliverable 4.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azuma-Dicke, N.; Weber, C.; Morthorst, P.E.; Ravn, H.F.; Schmidt, R.

    2004-06-01

    This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project 'Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets' (WILMAR) and de-scribes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEPs) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) for electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot prices at the electric-ity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise the fossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEPs is expected to have a significant influence on the electricity spot price. However, the expected price level of TEPs are met with great uncertainty and a study of a number of economical studies shows a price span between zero and 270 USD per ton of CO 2 depending on the participation or non-participation of countries in the scheme. The price-determination at the TGC market is expected to be closely related to the price at the power spot market as the RE-producers of electricity will have expectations to the total price paid for the energy produced, i.e., for the price of electricity at the spot market plus the price per kWh obtained at the green certificate mar-ket. In the Wilmar model, the TGC market can either be handled exogenously, i.e., the increase in renewable capacity and an average annual TGC price are determined outside the model, or a simple TGC module is developed, including the long-term supply functions for the most relevant renewable technologies and an overall TGC quota. Both solutions are rather simple, but to develop a more advanced model for the TGC market seems to be

  15. World uranium markets: an update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connor, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    The current state of the world's uranium market and its effect on US nuclear-fueled utilities is discussed. Major uranium-related issues that will confront US utility nuclear fuel managers in the coming years are presented, emphasizing the perspectives of supply, demand, world market adjustment, and US market restrictions on imports. It is stated that the US market is essential by non-US producers to help equilibrate an otherwise excessive supply which would cause chaos in the market. To avoid another ten-year boom/bust cycle, the US is urged to reexamine its position on long-term contracts - which permit greater price stability in contrast to the spot market and its price fluctuations. 13 figures, 6 tables

  16. Adjustable consumption participating in the electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Hansen, Lars Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    are aggregated and utilized for spot price optimization and to participate in the regulating power market. In this case study we examine in detail the implications of the given regulatory requirements for market participation in the Nordic system and compare this with estimates of the revenue that can...... be generated via market participation. The case study shows that the profit in the current system is very limited but that planned regulatory changes will make market participation significantly more attractive....

  17. Conjectural variation based learning model of strategic bidding in spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiqun Song; Yixin Ni; Fushuan Wen; Wu, F.F.

    2004-01-01

    In actual electricity market, which operates repeatedly on the basis of one hour or half hour, each firm might learn or estimate other competitors' strategic behaviors from available historical market operation data, and rationally aims at its maximum profit in the repeated biddings. A conjectural variation based learning method is proposed in this paper for generation firm to improve its strategic bidding performance. In the method, each firm learns and dynamically regulates its conjecture upon the reactions of its rivals to its bidding according to available information published in the electricity market, and then makes its optimal generation decision based on the updated conjectural variation of its rivals. Through such learning process, the equilibrium reached in the market is proven a Nash equilibrium. Motivation of generation firm to learn in the changing market environment and consequence of learning behavior in the market are also discussed through computer tests. (author)

  18. Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hlušek, Martin

    2002-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.

  19. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  20. A review of the deregulated power market since market opening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runge, C.

    2003-01-01

    The Alberta electrical industry structure was discussed along with the market opportunities and historic market data pertaining to Alberta. The Alberta electrical industry is responsible for 20,000 kilometres of transmission lines, connections with British Columbia and Saskatchewan, operates in excess of 90 generating units, with 200 Power Pool participants. The Alberta electricity generation breakdown was provided (coal, gas, hydro), and a look at the projected growth in installed capacity provided. General information concerning the Power Pool of Alberta was presented. In discussing market opportunities, the author began by looking at the evolution of the Alberta market, noting that the Pool commenced operations in 1996. A discussion followed on real time spot market, direct sales, contract for differences (CfD), and other market opportunities. The last part of the presentation dealt with historical market data. The Alberta annual Pool price from 1996 to 2002 was presented, along with daily pool price 1996-2002. The factors affecting Pool price are: other markets, input costs, supply-demand balance, and other market elements. Alberta imports and exports were discussed, followed by a look at forward trading activity. Market evolution was addressed, including considerations in next phase of Alberta market. figs

  1. Mid-year market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Spot market activity thus far in 1993-and indeed since the signing of the suspension agreements last fall-has been low by recent historical measures, the result of high levels of discretionary buying earlier in 1992 and continuing uncertainty about the performance of the current higher prices in the US market. The discretionary buying during the first three quarters of 1992 was a function of then-low prices and concerns about the outcome of the antidumping case. Last fall, following the signing of the suspension agreements, buying activity declined substantially, and a definite two-tiered market emerged, with prices in the restricted uranium market rising quickly for buyers requiring delivery in the USA. This article reviews the first 6 months of 1993 uranium market activity

  2. Multifractal features of spot rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas shipping market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelen, Steve; Norouzzadeh, Payam; Dullaert, Wout; Rahmani, Bahareh

    We investigate for the first time the spot rate dynamics of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and rescaled range (R/S) analysis. Both non-parametric methods allow for a rigorous statistical analysis of the freight process by detecting

  3. High-frequency data and the effectiveness of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Zeman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The boom of information technology in recent years significantly influenced the development of the financial markets. Financial markets have become accessible to the public, and increased demand for financial instruments is inevitably reflected in the advanced menu of securities dealers who currently offer a wide variety of investment in the underlying assets and through financial leverage allows investors to profit from tiny price changes of the underlying asset. Shortening of trading period and increasing the frequency of the trades clearly contributes to the growth of profits of securities dealers. The question remains whether this trading method offers the advantage to the investor himself, and whether the investor is able to take advantage of potential market inefficiencies to achieve above-average profits in the short term period. Therefore, this paper analyzes the behaviour of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD within a day, and through statistical tests examining the validity of the random walk hypothesis for the 5-minute, hourly, 4-hourly and daily changes in the spot exchange rate of the currency pair EUR/USD.

  4. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, Ofir D., E-mail: rubino@agri.huji.ac.i [Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Babcock, Bruce A., E-mail: babcock@iastate.ed [Department of Economics, Iowa State University, 578F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States)

    2011-05-15

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: {yields} The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. {yields} Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. {yields} Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. {yields} It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. {yields} Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  5. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  6. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weron, Rafal

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  7. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weron, Rafal [Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

    2008-05-15

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  8. Empirical evaluation of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Capitán Herráiz

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the Iberian Power Futures Market is not optimal for remuneration purposes as it seems to be slightly upward biased, though such a premium is not significant (only around 2% above the average of Settlement Prices. In the period considered (August 2006 to September 2008, monthly futures contracts behave similarly to quarterly contracts. Average risk premia have been positive in power and natural gas markets but negative in oil and coal markets. Different hypotheses are tested regarding increasing volatility with maturity and regarding Forward Risk Premium correlations (negative with variance of spot prices during delivery period and positive with skewness of spot prices during delivery period. Enlarged data sets are recommended for stronger test results. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. Regarding the emerging Iberian Power Futures Market, price efficiency is improved with market development and with further integration of European Regional Power Markets.

  9. A wavelet analysis of co-movements in Asian gold markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Debojyoti; Kannadhasan, M.; Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2018-02-01

    This study assesses the cross-country co-movements of gold spot returns among the major gold consuming countries in Asia using wavelet-based analysis for a dataset spanning over 26 years. Wavelet-based analysis is used since it allows measuring co-movements in a time-frequency space. The results suggest intense and positive co-movements in Asia after the Asian financial crisis of 1997 at all frequencies. In addition, the Asian gold spot markets depict a state of impending perfect market integration. Finally, Thailand emerges as the potential market leader in all wavelet scales except one, which is led by India. The study has important implications for international diversification of a single-asset (gold) portfolio.

  10. Bier spots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahu Yorulmaz,

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Also called as physiologic anemic macules, Bier spots are small, hypopigmented irregularly shaped macules against a background of diffuse erythema, which creates an appearance of speckled vascular mottling of the skin. Bier spots most commonly appear on distal portions of the limbs though there are case reports describing diffuse involvement, which also affect trunk and mucous membranes of the patient. Although the exact pathophysiological mechanisms underlying Bier spots still need to be elucidated, Bier spots have been suggested to be a vascular anomaly caused by vasoconstriction of small vessels. In addition, several diseases have been proposed to be associated with Bier spots, including scleroderma renal crisis, cryoglobulinemia, Peutz-Jeghers syndrome, alopecia areata and hypoplasia of the aorta, although it has not been shown whether these associations are casual or coincidental. The clinical presentation of Bier spots is quite typical. These tiny whitish macules easily become prominent when the affected limb is placed in a dependent position and fade away when the limb is raised. Here we report a case of Bier spots in a 32-year-old male patient with characteristical clinical manifestations.

  11. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market; Analyse et modelisation des prix des produits petroliers combustibles en europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, V

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  12. Real-time versus day-ahead market power in a hydro-based electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Tangerås, Thomas P.; Mauritzen, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    We analyse in a theoretical framework the link between real-time and day-ahead market performance in a hydro-based and imperfectly competitive wholesale electricity market. Theoretical predictions of the model are tested on data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool Spot (NPS).We reject the hypothesis that prices at NPS were at their competitive levels throughout the period under examination. The empirical approach uses equilibrium prices and quantities and does not rely on bid data nor o...

  13. A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting

  14. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  15. Market stumbles, lowest prices since end of '92

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the December 1993/January 1994 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. Activity during this trading period was quiet, with only six deals concluded during the month of January (compared to twelve deals in December). There were two deals in the conversion market, two deals in the spot market, and two other deals in the enrichment market. No deals were announced in the medium and long-term market, but four U.S. utilities came out for approximately 8.4M pounds equivalent

  16. Generation Companies’ Operative Strategies in the Spot Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tovar-Hernández J.H.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In traditional regulation the obligation to meet the consumer demand was assumed, this guaranteed to generation companies the full recovery of their costs. However, in order to achieve greater efficiency, reduce the price of electricity, meet the continuously growing electricity consumption, and equalize prices in different regions, a new structure of the electricity industry has been created, where electric energy is traded through a market. Generation company’s future cash flows depend on day to day market participation, in order to satisfy all of their financial and economic requirements. In this paper, future cash flows required to fulfill with economic and financial commitments by a generation company immerse in this new market structure are studied. For this purpose, future cash flows are considered to be dependent on a single asset: electricity. Several scenarios with different fuel prices are generated in order to estimate the generation company’s future cash flows. The response of the competing generation companies is taken into account at each scenario. The fuel price changes are modelled using a concurrent binary tree.

  17. PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice Karahan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

  18. E-Marketing Jaya Abadi Computer (JAC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Honni Honni

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Internet has been widely used by manufacturers and distributors to expand product markets for its advantageous in quick process, practicality and low cost. Jaya Abadi Computer (JAC as a sales distributor and service agent of computer equipment still perform its direct marketing manually on the spot, so that the marketing only reaches a small scope. This article analyzes the market opportunity of JAC; determines the marketing strategy and builds e-marketing website for JAC based on customer experience using The Seven Stage Cycle of Internet Marketing. The results obtained are an e-marketing website to support the marketing activities of JAC. Eventually it can be concluded that by building an e-marketing, JAC can reach as well as expand market opportunities in virtual world, use the right marketing strategy, and meet customer needs through features on the website. 

  19. Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloster, Kristian

    2003-01-01

    This thesis will describe a method for an arbitrage-free evaluation of forward and futures contracts in the Nordic electricity market. This is a market where it is not possible to hedge using the underlying asset which one normally would do. The electricity market is a relatively new market, and is less developed than the financial markets. The pricing of energy and energy derivatives are depending on factors like production, transport, storage etc. There are different approaches when pricing a forward contract in an energy market. With motivation from interest rate theory, one could model the forward prices directly in the risk neutral world. Another approach is to start out with a model for the spot prices in the physical world, and then derive theoretical forward prices, which then are fitted to observed forward prices. These and other approaches are described by Clewlow and Strickland in their book, Energy derivatives. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price, and then derive theoretical forward prices. I use a generalization of the multifactor Schwartz model with seasonal trends and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity. This continuous-time model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the multi-factor Schwartz model. Then one can specify arbitrage-free prices for forward and futures based on the Schwartz model. The result from this procedure is a joint spot and forward price model in both the risk neutral and physical market, together with knowledge of the equivalent martingale measure chosen by the market. This measure can be interpreted as the market price of risk, which is of interest for risk management. In this setup both futures and forward contracts will have the same pricing dynamics, as the only difference between the two types of contracts is how the payment for the

  20. SU-E-T-510: Interplay Between Spots Sizes, Spot / Line Spacing and Motion in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, TK

    2015-01-01

    Purpose In proton beam configuration for spot scanning proton therapy (SSPT), one can define the spacing between spots and lines of scanning as a ratio of given spot size. If the spacing increases, the number of spots decreases which can potentially decrease scan time, and so can whole treatment time, and vice versa. However, if the spacing is too large, the uniformity of scanned field decreases. Also, the field uniformity can be affected by motion during SSPT beam delivery. In the present study, the interplay between spot/ line spacing and motion is investigated. Methods We used four Gaussian-shape spot sizes with 0.5cm, 1.0cm, 1.5cm, and 2.0cm FWHM, three spot/line spacing that creates uniform field profile which are 1/3*FWHM, σ/3*FWHM and 2/3*FWHM, and three random motion amplitudes within, +/−0.3mm, +/−0.5mm, and +/−1.0mm. We planned with 2Gy uniform single layer of 10×10cm2 and 20×20cm2 fields. Then, mean dose within 80% area of given field size, contrubuting MU per each spot assuming 1cGy/MU calibration for all spot sizes, number of spots and uniformity were calculated. Results The plans with spot/line spacing equal to or smaller than 2/3*FWHM without motion create ∼100% uniformity. However, it was found that the uniformity decreases with increased spacing, and it is more pronounced with smaller spot sizes, but is not affected by scanned field sizes. Conclusion It was found that the motion during proton beam delivery can alter the dose uniformity and the amount of alteration changes with spot size which changes with energy and spot/line spacing. Currently, robust evaluation in TPS (e.g. Eclipse system) performs range uncertainty evaluation using isocenter shift and CT calibration error. Based on presented study, it is recommended to add interplay effect evaluation to robust evaluation process. For future study, the additional interplay between the energy layers and motion is expected to present volumetric effect

  1. Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

  2. Testing Efficiency of Derivative Markets: ISE30, ISE100, USD and EURO

    OpenAIRE

    Akal, Mustafa; Birgili, Erhan; Durmuskaya, Sedat

    2012-01-01

    This study attempts to develop new market efficiency tests depending on the spot and future prices, or the differences of them alternative to traditional unit root test build on univariate time series. As a result of the autocorrelation, normality and run tests applied to spot and futures prices or differences of them, and Adopted Purchasing Power Parity test based on a regression the future markets of ISE30, ISE100 index indicators, USD and Euro currencies, all of which have been traded dail...

  3. Wind power and the conditions at a liberalized power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Wind power is undergoing a rapid development nationally as well as globally and in a number of countries covers an increasing part of the power supply. At the same time an ongoing liberalization of power markets is taking place and to an increasing extent the owners of wind power plants will themselves have to be responsible for trading the power at the spot market and financially handling the balancing. In the western part of Denmark (Jutland/Funen area), wind-generated power from time to time covers almost 100% of total power consumption. Therefore some examples are chosen from this area to analyse in more detail how well large amounts of wind power in the short-term are handled at the power spot market. It turns out that there is a tendency that more wind power in the system in the short run leads to relatively lower spot prices, while less wind power implies relatively higher spot prices, although, with the exception of December 2002, in general no strong relationship is found. A stronger relationship is found at the regulating market, where there is a fairly clear tendency that the more wind power produced, the higher is the need for down-regulation, and, correspondingly, the less wind power produced, the higher is the need for up-regulation. In general for the Jutland/Funen area the average cost of down-regulation is calculated as 1 2 c euros/kWh regulated for 2002, while the cost of up-regulation amounts to 0 7 c euros/kWh regulated. (author)

  4. Integration project of regional markets in Europe (European directive); Proyecto de integracion de mercados regionales en Europa (Directva europea)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Fernandez-Castaneda, J. J.

    2010-07-01

    The article presents the current situation of the Day-Ahead electricity markets in the different countries and Regions along West Europe. It describes the different possibilities applied to congestion management in the borders between countries and price areas, and the options employed to couple Day-ahead markets to form regional markets in Europe. Finally, it presents the initiative to Price couple Regional markets (PCR) that is being developed by Nord pool spot, EPEX Spot and OMEL with the objective to advance towards the integration of the markets that they operate in the internal Electricity Market. (Author)

  5. Corn and Soybean Marketing Contract Adoption and Site-Specificity

    OpenAIRE

    Elliott, Matthew S.; Elliott, Lisa M.; Lin, Yan

    2015-01-01

    Adoption of marketing contracts represents a subtle evolution from spot markets to more formal coordination using classical bilateral contracts. The increase use of marketing contracts for corn and soybeans has been observed within the context of a changing landscape to marketing outlets. Since 2000, there has been consolidation, changes in ownership of grain merchants and processors, and an unprecedented emergence of processors for domestic bioenergy. In this study, we assess the effect site...

  6. Analyzing Capacity Withholding in Oligopoly Electricity Markets Considering Forward Contracts and Demand Elasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salarkheili

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper capacity withholding in an oligopolistic electricity market that all Generation Companies (GenCos bid in a Cournot model is analyzed and the capacity withheld index, the capacity distortion index and the price distortion index are obtained and formulated. Then a new index, Distortion-Withheld Index (DWI, is proposed in order to measure the potential ability of market for capacity withholding. In these indices the impact of demand elasticity on capacity withholding is considered and it is shown that demand elasticity plays an important role for capacity withholding and market power mitigation. Due to the significant role of forward contracts for market power mitigation and risk hedging in power markets, the impacts of these contracts on capacity withholding are considered. The effects of GenCos’ strategic forward contracts on capacity withholding are also discussed. Moreover, the relationship between capacity withholding of GenCos and market price distortion is acquired. A two-settlement market including a forward market and a spot market is used to describe GenCos’ strategic forward contracting and spot market competition.

  7. 'ISL pattern reserve requirements for today's spot price,' or 'how many in-place pounds are needed for a mining pattern to be profitable in today's market'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthony, H.L.

    2000-01-01

    Recent uranium spot market values place additional burdens on the geologist and project manager to identify mineralized ore that will yield a profitable return on investment to the mining venture and its investors. The author reviews the various cost components that comprise the total work effort required to produce uranium via ISL methods to arrive at a suitable ore grade that will guarantee profitably. Amortization of costs based on recent expenditures for typical ISL operations are used in conjunction with wellfield development, operating and restoration costs to determine the ore value required to show a positive return on investment. (author)

  8. Use of demand response in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Sri Niwas; Østergaard, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Demand response (DR) can provide sufficient measure, if implemented successfully, to provide economic, secure and stable supply to the customers even under the variability of the generated output from renewable energy source such as wind and solar. However, there are several issues to be analyzed...... before DR implementation. This paper critically examines the present practices of the DR in the various electricity markets existing in the world including Europe. The prospect of DR in various market levels such as day-ahead (spot) market, hour-ahead market, real time/regulating market and ancillary...... market is analyzed. This paper also addresses the key issues and challenges in the implementation of DR in the electricity markets....

  9. Transitional–turbulent spots and turbulent–turbulent spots in boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M.; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional–turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a Λ vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional–turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional–turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional–turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent–turbulent spots. These turbulent–turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional–turbulent spots, these turbulent–turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent–turbulent spots. PMID:28630304

  10. Transitional-turbulent spots and turbulent-turbulent spots in boundary layers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

    2017-07-03

    Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional-turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a [Formula: see text] vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional-turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional-turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional-turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent-turbulent spots. These turbulent-turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional-turbulent spots, these turbulent-turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent-turbulent spots.

  11. Current rules and state of readiness of the competitive market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, B.

    2001-01-01

    The focus of this presentation was on the governance, operation and regulation of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) in a competitive electricity market in Ontario. The presentation also included an update on the progress toward market readiness and discussed the principles guiding government decision making, recognizing that it is government that holds the decision on the market opening date. The IMO has been running Ontario's bulk electric system for more than 50 years, overseeing its safe and reliable operation while balancing demand and supply. IMOs are also leading the drive to a competitive, deregulated wholesale electricity marketplace in Ontario. When open, IMOs will run the electricity spot market, collecting offers from suppliers and bids from purchasers to determine a spot market price for electricity which will reflect demand across the province. Rules and processes are being developed to ensure the Ontario marketplace will operate to benefit both consumers and producers. The four principles guiding governments in the opening of electricity markets are to protect consumers and offer more choice, ensure a strong business climate with a reliable supply of electricity, to protect the environment, and to support alternative sources of power

  12. Effects of Intervention in the Spot Currency Market on the BRL/USD Exchange Rate from 1999 to 2008: an Event Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Meurer

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.

  13. The Relationship Between Electricity Price and Wind Power Generation in Danish Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    of competitive electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. The relationship between the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price) and the wind power generation in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price, the down regulation price...... and the up regulation price generally decreases when the wind power penetration in the power system increases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price for different wind power penetration are analyzed. The findings of this paper may be useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal...... bidding strategy and may be also useful for the optimal operation of modern power systems with high wind power penetrations....

  14. Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2009-01-01

    Dynamic price information flows among U.S. electricity wholesale spot prices and the prices of the major electricity generation fuel sources, natural gas, uranium, coal, and crude oil, are studied. Multivariate time series methods applied to weekly price data show that in contemporaneous time peak electricity prices move natural gas prices, which in turn influence crude oil. In the long run, price is discovered in the fuel sources market (except uranium), as these prices are weakly exogenous in a reduced rank regression representation of these energy prices.

  15. The strategic use of forward contracts: Applications in power markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Jeffrey Scott

    This dissertation develops three theoretical models that analyze forward trading by firms with market power. The models are discussed in the context of recently restructured power markets, but the results can be applied more generally. The first model considers the profitability of large firms in markets with limited economies of scale and free entry. When large firms apply their market power, small firms benefit from the high prices without incurring the costs of restricted output. When entry is considered, and profit opportunity is determined by the cost of entry, this asymmetry creates the "curse of market power;" the long-run profits of large firms are reduced because of their market power. I suggest ways that large power producers can cope with the curse of market power, including the sale of long-term forward contracts. Past research has shown that forward contracts can demonstrate commitment to aggressive behavior to a competing duopolist. I add explicitly modeled entry to this literature, and make the potential entrants the audience of the forward sale. The existence of a forward market decreases equilibrium entry, increases the profits of large firms, and enhances economic efficiency. In the second model, a consumer representative, such as a state government or regulated distribution utility, bargains in the forward market on behalf of end-consumers who cannot organize together in the spot market. The ability to organize in forward markets allows consumers to encourage economic efficiency. When multiple producers are considered, I find that the ability to offer contracts also increases consumer surplus by decreasing the producers' profits. In some specifications of the model, consumers are able to capture the full gains from trade. The third model of this dissertation considers the ability of a large producer to take advantage of anonymity by randomly alternating between forward sales and forward purchases. The large producer uses its market power to

  16. Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Olson, A.; Horowitz, I.

    2006-01-01

    An extensive North American pipeline grid that physically integrates individual natural-gas markets, in conjunction with economic ties binding the California markets to those at Henry Hub, Louisiana and the New York mercantile exchange via an array of financial instruments, suggests that the spot prices at Henry Hub will impact those in California. We verify the suggestion via a partial-adjustment regression model, thus affirming that California traders can exploit the cross-hedging opportunities made available to them via market integration with Henry Hub, and that they can accurately forecast the price they will have to pay to meet future demand based solely on the price of futures at Henry Hub and the price of a California natural-gas basis swaps contract. (author)

  17. Spotted inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2010-01-01

    We describe new scenarios for generating curvature perturbations when inflaton (curvaton) has significant interactions. We consider a ''spot'', which arises from interactions associated with an enhanced symmetric point (ESP) on the trajectory. Our first example uses the spot to induce a gap in the field equation. We observe that the gap in the field equation may cause generation of curvature perturbation if it does not appear simultaneous in space. The mechanism is similar to the scenario of inhomogeneous phase transition. Then we observe that the spot interactions may initiate warm inflation in the cold Universe. Creation of cosmological perturbation is discussed in relation to the inflaton dynamics and the modulation associated with the spot interactions

  18. Twelve years of fireworks market surveillance in France

    OpenAIRE

    Branka , Ruddy

    2012-01-01

    International audience; In the view of market surveillance, more than 4400 fireworks have been taken on the spot by sworn people or bought on the market in France since 1999 for inspection purposes. This paper presents the market surveillance sampling evolution during twelve years, carried out by the PYRO unit of the Accidental Risks Division of INERIS as testing body ; the related measures implemented : additional audits in importer plants, interlaboratory tests for guarantying the reliabili...

  19. Short-term LNG-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom; Lund, Arne-Christian; Miltersen, Kristian; Rud, Linda

    2005-01-01

    The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has experienced substantial growth in the past decades. In the traditional trade patterns of LNG the product has typically been handled within a dedicated chain of plants and vessels fully committed by long term contracts or common ownership, providing risk sharing of large investments in a non-liquid market. Increasing gas prices and substantial cost reductions in all parts of the LNG chain have made LNG projects viable even if only part of the capacity is secured by long-term contracts, opening for more flexible trade of the remainder. Increasing gas demand, especially in power generation, combined with cost reductions in the cost of LNG terminals, open new markets for LNG. For the LNG supplier, the flexibility of shifting volumes between regions represents an additional value. International trade in LNG has been increasing, now accounting for more than one fifth of the world's cross-border gas trade. Despite traditional vertical chain bonds, increased flexibility has contributed in fact to an increasing LNG spot trade, representing 8% of global trade in 2002. The focus of this paper is on the development of global short-term LNG markets, and their role with respect to efficiency and security of supply in European gas markets. Arbitrage opportunities arising from price differences between regional markets (such as North America versus Europe) are important impetuses for flexible short-term trade. However, the short-term LNG trade may suffer from problems related to market access, e.g. limited access to terminals and regulatory issues, as well as rigidities connected to vertical binding within the LNG chain. Important issues related to the role of short-term LNG-trade in the European gas market are: Competition, flexibility in meeting peak demand, security of supply and consequences of differences in pricing policies (oil-linked prices in Europe and spot market prices in North America). (Author)

  20. Spot Weight Adaptation for Moving Target in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morel, Paul; Wu, Xiaodong; Blin, Guillaume; Vialette, Stéphane; Flynn, Ryan; Hyer, Daniel; Wang, Dongxu

    2015-01-01

    This study describes a real-time spot weight adaptation method in spot-scanning proton therapy for moving target or moving patient, so that the resultant dose distribution closely matches the planned dose distribution. The method proposed in this study adapts the weight (MU) of the delivering pencil beam to that of the target spot; it will actually hit during patient/target motion. The target spot that a certain delivering pencil beam may hit relies on patient monitoring and/or motion modeling using four-dimensional (4D) CT. After the adapted delivery, the required total weight [Monitor Unit (MU)] for this target spot is then subtracted from the planned value. With continuous patient motion and continuous spot scanning, the planned doses to all target spots will eventually be all fulfilled. In a proof-of-principle test, a lung case was presented with realistic temporal and motion parameters; the resultant dose distribution using spot weight adaptation was compared to that without using this method. The impact of the real-time patient/target position tracking or prediction was also investigated. For moderate motion (i.e., mean amplitude 0.5 cm), D95% to the planning target volume (PTV) was only 81.5% of the prescription (RX) dose; with spot weight adaptation PTV D95% achieves 97.7% RX. For large motion amplitude (i.e., 1.5 cm), without spot weight adaptation PTV D95% is only 42.9% of RX; with spot weight adaptation, PTV D95% achieves 97.7% RX. Larger errors in patient/target position tracking or prediction led to worse final target coverage; an error of 3 mm or smaller in patient/target position tracking is preferred. The proposed spot weight adaptation method was able to deliver the planned dose distribution and maintain target coverage when patient motion was involved. The successful implementation of this method would rely on accurate monitoring or prediction of patient/target motion.

  1. Spot Weight Adaptation for Moving Target in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul eMorel

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study describes a real-time spot weight adaptation method in spot-scanning proton therapy for moving target or moving patient, so that the resultant dose distribution closely matches the planned dose distribution. Materials and Methods: The method proposed in this study adapts the weight (MU of the delivering pencil beam to that of the target spot it will actually hit during patient/target motion. The target spot a certain delivering pencil beam may hit relies on patient monitoring and/or motion modeling using four-dimensional (4D CT. After the adapted delivery, the required total weight (MU for this target spot is then subtracted from the planned value. With continuous patient motion and continuous spot scanning, the planned doses to all target spots will eventually be all fulfilled. In a proof-of-principle test, a lung case was presented with realistic temporal and motion parameters; the resultant dose distribution using spot weight adaptation was compared to that without using this method. The impact of the real-time patient/target position tracking or prediction was also investigated.Results: For moderate motion (i.e., mean amplitude 0.5 cm, D95% to the planning target volume (PTV was only 81.5% of the prescription (RX dose; with spot weight adaptation PTV D95% achieves 97.7%RX. For large motion amplitude (i.e., 1.5 cm, without spot weight adaptation PTV D95% is only 42.9% of RX; with spot weight adaptation, PTV D95% achieves 97.7%RX. Larger errors in patient/target position tracking or prediction led to worse final target coverage; an error of 3mm or smaller in patient/target position tracking is preferred. Conclusion: The proposed spot weight adaptation method was able to deliver the planned dose distribution and maintain target coverage when patient motion was involved. The successful implementation of this method would rely on accurate monitoring or prediction of patient/target motion.

  2. Adequate intraday market design to enable the integration of wind energy into the European power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Christoph [University Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Energy Economics and Management Sciences, Universitaetsstrasse 12, 45 117 Essen (Germany)

    2010-07-15

    This contribution analyses the European electricity markets with respect to their aptitude to absorb large amounts of wind energy. Thereby in a first step the market designs of the major European power markets in France, Germany, Scandinavia, Spain and UK are reviewed, with a particular focus on liquidity in the spot and intraday markets. Then some key features of the short-term adjustments required by wind energy are discussed and the necessity of sufficient liquidity in intraday markets is highlighted. For the example of the German market subsequently the discrepancy between the physical short-term adjustment needs and the traded volumes on the intraday market is analyzed. This leads to an evaluation of proposals for improving the liquidity on the short-term market, including the use of continuous spot trading like in UK or the use of intraday auctions like in Spain. (author)

  3. Bier spots

    OpenAIRE

    Ahu Yorulmaz,; Seray Kulcu Cakmak; Esra Ar?; Ferda Artuz

    2015-01-01

    Also called as physiologic anemic macules, Bier spots are small, hypopigmented irregularly shaped macules against a background of diffuse erythema, which creates an appearance of speckled vascular mottling of the skin. Bier spots most commonly appear on distal portions of the limbs though there are case reports describing diffuse involvement, which also affect trunk and mucous membranes of the patient. Although the exact pathophysiological mechanisms underlying Bier spots still need to be elu...

  4. The uranium market prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lloyd, R.

    1981-01-01

    A historical analysis of the uranium market points out the cyclical nature of the market and suggests that the spot price, exploration levels, and mill capacity utilization rate are dependent on economic factors. An examination of the current uranium market suggests that the effects of the forecasted surplus supply, the diminishing returns in exploration and the long lead times and high costs of development may mean that future production levels are uncertain. The general prospects for the uranium industry are also uncertain because of barriers to trade, environmental regulations and public opinion. The paper concludes that by the use of long term contracts, appropriate inventory policy and greater discussion between producers and consumers the prospects for the uranium market can be made more certain and further imbalances in demand and supply can be avoided. (author)

  5. On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool's Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power. (author)

  6. World nuclear fuel market. Seventeenth annual meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    The papers presented at the seventeenth World Nuclear Fuels Market meeting are cataloged individually. This volume includes information on the following areas of interest: historical and current aspects of the uranium and plutonium market with respect to supply and demand, pricing, spot market purchasing, and other market phenomena; impact of reprocessing and recycling uranium, plutonium, and mixed oxide fuels; role of individual countries in the market: Hungary, Germany, the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, France, and the US; the impact of public opinion and radioactive waste management on the nuclear industry, and a debate regarding long term versus short term contracting by electric utilities for uranium and enrichment services

  7. CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. Wilmar - deliverable 4.1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azuma-Dicke, N.; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project “Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets” (WILMAR) and describes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEP’s) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGC’s) forelectricity produced from renewable energy...... sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot pricesat the electricity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power...... generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise thefossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEP’s is expected...

  8. An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Duarte Venslauskas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory.  We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI.  We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships.  The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices.  In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks.

  9. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies.

  10. Nordic market report 2009 : Development in the Nordic electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    The Nordic region is characterized by a unique mix of generation sources where the high share of hydropower, representing virtually all of the Norwegian and nearly half of the Swedish generation capacity, has a great influence on the market. The level of precipitation is thus vital when calculating and analysing potential generation levels. In addition, the Nordic region has significantly colder winters than any other European country, influencing the consumption as many households are electrically heated. In 2008 the overall electricity consumption in the Nordic region was slightly higher - 1.6 per cent - than in 2007. During periods of peak consumption the Nordic power system proved sufficient to ensure security of supply without restrictions on consumption. The Nordic region operates almost entirely as one synchronous power system through transmission grid. The continuous reinforcement of the Nordic transmission grid has enabled an increased security of supply as well as a more efficient use of the generation capacity. Increasing cross border power flows strain the transmission lines and increases the demand for transmission capacity. Possible congestions occurring between the Nord Pool bidding areas are handled through market splitting, while internal congestions in general are handled through counter trade or by reducing interconnector capacity at the bidding area borders. The Nordic wholesale power market is a well functioning electricity market. Trade at Nord Pool has increased steadily since it was established in 1993. Although trading at Nord Pool Spot is voluntary, significantly more physical power is now traded on the power exchange than bilaterally - from 42 per cent of total Nordic consumption in 2004 to 76 per cent in 2008. During 2008 average spot prices at Nord Pool were considerably higher (approximately 60 per cent) than prices in 2007. The Nordic retail markets are essentially four separate markets, influenced by national differences, but work on

  11. Nordic market report 2009. Development in the Nordic electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-15

    The Nordic region is characterized by a unique mix of generation sources where the high share of hydropower, representing virtually all of the Norwegian and nearly half of the Swedish generation capacity, has a great influence on the market. The level of precipitation is thus vital when calculating and analysing potential generation levels. In addition, the Nordic region has significantly colder winters than any other European country, influencing the consumption as many households are electrically heated. In 2008 the overall electricity consumption in the Nordic region was slightly higher - 1.6 per cent - than in 2007. During periods of peak consumption the Nordic power system proved sufficient to ensure security of supply without restrictions on consumption. The Nordic region operates almost entirely as one synchronous power system through transmission grid. The continuous reinforcement of the Nordic transmission grid has enabled an increased security of supply as well as a more efficient use of the generation capacity. Increasing cross border power flows strain the transmission lines and increases the demand for transmission capacity. Possible congestions occurring between the Nord Pool bidding areas are handled through market splitting, while internal congestions in general are handled through counter trade or by reducing interconnector capacity at the bidding area borders. The Nordic wholesale power market is a well functioning electricity market. Trade at Nord Pool has increased steadily since it was established in 1993. Although trading at Nord Pool Spot is voluntary, significantly more physical power is now traded on the power exchange than bilaterally - from 42 per cent of total Nordic consumption in 2004 to 76 per cent in 2008. During 2008 average spot prices at Nord Pool were considerably higher (approximately 60 per cent) than prices in 2007. The Nordic retail markets are essentially four separate markets, influenced by national differences, but work on

  12. Analysing the relationship between wholesale and end-user prices in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, P.E.; Johnsen, T.A.; Naervae, T.; Wasti, S.

    2004-09-01

    Efficient pricing in a deregulated market means prices which closely reflect the cost of obtaining electricity in the wholesale market. This research report analyses and explains the relationship between wholesale prices (especially Spot Prices) and end-user prices for residential, industrial and commercial users in the Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian electricity markets. The report primarily analyses the closeness of wholesale and end-user price patterns (the primary tracking period is 1998-2003, focusing especially closely on Finland and the period 2002-2003). The report reveals that Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish end- user prices can all be said to follow spot prices (and other wholesale prices) to a greater or lesser extent. The relationship is however complex and, especially regarding spot prices, clearly closest in Norway, followed by Sweden and then Finland. Whilst, overall, Finnish prices seem quite competitive and Nordic end-user prices currently seem to be extremely similar, there is some cause for concern in Finland. In particular, very few customers have spot based tariffs; wholesale prices (including spot prices) appear to sometimes have been used as an excuse for end-user price rises; Finnish suppliers have often been slow to respond to post-spike spot price reductions; offer prices are currently often higher than standard variable prices; and suppliers seem quite free to follow any pricing strategy, regardless of the presence of competition. Six factors are identified which influence end-user prices and their relationship with wholesale (and particularly spot) prices: hydro-dependency; concentration and entry barriers; cultural and historical determination; legislation; pricing strategies; the competitive environment. The report additionally specifically illustrates a wide variety of possible supplier strategies which might explain Finnish end-user pricing. Spot prices seem to provide only a minor explanation for Finnish end-user prices. (orig.)

  13. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  14. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  15. Spot weld arrangement effects on the fatigue behavior of multi-spot welded joints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassanifard, Soran; Zehsaz, Mohammad; Esmaeili, Firooz

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, the effects of spot weld arrangements in multi-spot welded joints on the fatigue behavior of the joints are studied. Three different four-spot welded joints are considered: one-row four-spot parallel to the loading direction, one-row four-spot perpendicular to the loading direction and two-row four-spot weld specimens. The experimental fatigue test results reveal that the differences between the fatigue lives of three spot welded types in the low cycle regime are more considerable than those in the high cycle regime. However, all kinds of spot weld specimens have similar fatigue strength when approaching a million cycles. A non-linear finite element analysis is performed to obtain the relative stress gradients, effective distances and notch strength reduction factors based on the volumetric approach. The work here shows that the volumetric approach does a very good job in predicting the fatigue life of the multi-spot welded joints

  16. Spanish Power Exchange Market Concepts and Operating Experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, J. J.; Gamito, C.

    2000-01-01

    On January, 1st, 1998, the Spanish Electricity Market started operations. All generators, distributors, commercialization companies, and final consumers negotiate al power exchanges either through the spot market or using bilateral contracts. The Spanish Power Exchange Market Operator (Compania Operadora del Mercado Espanol de electricidad, OMEL) is responsible for the management of the market and for the economic settlement and billing of a transactions on the Power Exchange market, and the technical operational process handled by the System Operator. This paper describes in detail the Spanish market principles and the experience gathered through the design, installation and first two years of market operation. The paper presents also the Spanish market results from January 1998 up to December 1999 indicating each specific market results and aggregate statistics. (Author)

  17. Price formation and intertemporal arbitrage within a low-liquidity framework. Empirical evidence from European natural gas markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nick, Sebastian

    2013-08-15

    In this study, the informational efficiency of the European natural gas market is analyzed by empirically investigating price formation and arbitrage efficiency between spot and futures markets. Econometric approaches are specified that explicitly account for nonlinearities and the low liquidity framework of the considered gas hubs. The empirical results reveal that price discovery takes place on the futures market, while the spot price subsequently follows the futures market price. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence of significant market frictions hampering intertemporal arbitrage. UK's NBP seems to be the hub at which arbitrage opportunities are exhausted most efficiently, although there is convergence in the degree of intertemporal arbitrage efficiency over time at the hubs investigated.

  18. Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. Andrade

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

  19. Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Acharya, Viral V; Lochstoer, Lars; Ramadorai, Tarun

    2009-01-01

    Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers' inventory holdings, and thus spot prices. Consistent with our model, producers' default risk forecasts futures returns, spot pri...

  20. Rational expectations, risk and efficiency in energy futures markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (CA). Dept. of Economics)

    1991-04-01

    Conditional on the hypothesis that energy futures markets are efficient or rational, this paper uses Fama's regression approach to measure the information in energy futures prices about future spot prices and time varying premiums. The paper finds that the premium and expected future spot price components of energy futures prices are negatively correlated and that most of the variation in futures prices is variation in expected premiums. (author).

  1. Nonlinear analysis and dynamic structure in the energy market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghababa, Hajar

    This research assesses the dynamic structure of the energy sector of the aggregate economy in the context of nonlinear mechanisms. Earlier studies have focused mainly on the price of the energy products when detecting nonlinearities in time series data of the energy market, and there is little mention of the production side of the market. Moreover, there is a lack of exploration about the implication of high dimensionality and time aggregation when analyzing the market's fundamentals. This research will address these gaps by including the quantity side of the market in addition to the price and by systematically incorporating various frequencies for sample sizes in three essays. The goal of this research is to provide an inclusive and exhaustive examination of the dynamics in the energy markets. The first essay begins with the application of statistical techniques, and it incorporates the most well-known univariate tests for nonlinearity with distinct power functions over alternatives and tests different null hypotheses. It utilizes the daily spot price observations on five major products in the energy market. The results suggest that the time series daily spot prices of the energy products are highly nonlinear in their nature. They demonstrate apparent evidence of general nonlinear serial dependence in each individual series, as well as nonlinearity in the first, second, and third moments of the series. The second essay examines the underlying mechanism of crude oil production and identifies the nonlinear structure of the production market by utilizing various monthly time series observations of crude oil production: the U.S. field, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), non-OPEC, and the world production of crude oil. The finding implies that the time series data of the U.S. field, OPEC, and the world production of crude oil exhibit deep nonlinearity in their structure and are generated by nonlinear mechanisms. However, the dynamics of the non

  2. Use of derivative instruments to integrate renewable energies into the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, Kilian; Nelles, Michael; Candra, Dodiek Ika

    2017-01-01

    The implementation of renewable energies to the electricity market is inefficient and expensive with current measures. Further these measures are prejudicial for the existing energy-only-market. The combination of fluctuating and controllable renewable powers in virtual power plants enables the marketing of this power as a derivate on the future market. Thus would relieve the spot market and stabilize pricing on both markets. Subsequently the renewable energy obligation will reduce and renewable energies could be marketed as secured power.

  3. Strategic forward contracting in electricity markets: modelling and analysis by equilibrium method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wong, K.P.; Yu, C.W.; Chung, C.Y.

    2004-01-01

    Contractual arrangement plays an important role in mitigating market power in electricity markets. The issue of whether rational generators would voluntarily enter contract markets through a strategic incentive is examined, and the factors which could affect this strategic contracting behaviour. A two-stage game model is presented to formulate the competition of generators in bid-based pool spot markets and contract markets, as well as the interaction between these two markets. The affine supply function equilibrium (SFE) method is used to model competitive bidding for the spot market, while the contract market is modelled with the general conjectural variation method. The proposed methodology allows asymmetric, multiple strategic generators having capacity constraints and affine marginal costs with non-zero intercepts to be taken into account. It is shown that the presence of forward contract markets will complicate the solution to the affine SFE, and a new methodology is developed in this regard. Strategic contracting behaviours are analysed in the context of asymmetric, multiple strategic generators. A numerical example is used to verify theoretical results. It is shown that the observability of contract markets plays an important role in fostering generators' strategic contracting incentive, and that this contracting behaviour could also be affected by generators' cost parameters and demand elasticity. (author)

  4. New Brunswick Market Design Committee : market design issues paper : choice of market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    A model for the competitive electricity market in New Brunswick was not specified by the White Paper: New Brunswick Energy Policy, published in March 2001. One of the tasks of the Market Design Committee (MDC) is to select a market model for the province. This report was prepared with this objective in mind. It begins by providing a description of the basic functions that must be performed by any electricity system. Different market models will function differently, and a descriptions of how the functions would be performed under each model is presented. Considering the specific size and geographic location of New Brunswick, a number of actual markets that could be of interest are presented. The various electricity markets normally use one of four market models: vertically integrated monopoly utility, a competitive pool market, a bilateral contract market, and a single-buyer market. The first model was not explained as it represents the existing, non-competitive model whereby the government owns and/or regulates price and investment decision. The case where a market operator receives bids and offers from buyers and sellers and matches them to derive a price and schedule for the spot market is what is called the competitive pool market. When electricity trade takes place through a series of contracts between individual buyers and sellers, it is referred to as a bilateral contract market. Finally, the single-buyer market is defined as a monopoly where the buyer purchases from multiple sellers based on competition amongst them. Different examples are provided of applications of the three markets described in the paper. Both New England and New Zealand were chosen to better illustrate the concepts of a fully competitive pool-based market, as they either have close ties to New Brunswick, or share physical similarities. The single-buyer model is illustrated by the case of Northern Ireland where size is similar. The choices made in Quebec were described in the final

  5. Testing efficiency and unbiasedness in the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on speculative efficiency or unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the WTI crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. (author)

  6. The new natural gas futures market - is it efficient?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    Aspects of the natural gas futures market are discussed. In particular, the efficiency of the natural gas futures market is evaluated using a regression equation. It is found that the market has behaved more like an inefficient market than an efficient one. A variety of tests are applied to the estimated equation. These tests suggest that the estimated equation provides a good summary of the relationship between spot and futures prices for the time period. In addition, the equation is found to produce accurate forecasts. (Author)

  7. Balancing the market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steve Kidd

    2007-01-01

    The uranium market still retains arrangements developed in the mists of time, but now is an appropriate time for something new to be developed. Quoted uranium prices continue to move sharply upwards. It can be argued that the long period of price depression followed by such a dramatic spike indicates that the uranium market is not functioning as it really should. Nevertheless, the particular characteristics of the uranium business should ensure that it should arguably have much calmer market conditions. Much of the problem relates to lack of market liquidity and transparency. Prices are published on a weekly and monthly basis by informed observers and are based on information they glean from market participants.The infrastructure issue of much of the nuclear fuel supply business is slowly but surely getting addressed by the required new investment, but the uranium market is still in need of something new.The question then remains about the longer-term market. To some extent, having a more transparent and liquid spot market will go some way towards addressing this. It will undoubtedly take some entrepreneurial leadership to induce this to happen, plus realisation that the current marketplace cannot be in the long-term interest of either buyers or sellers.

  8. A Model to Measure Tourist Preference toward Scenic Spots Based on Social Media Data: A Case of Dapeng in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Sun

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Research on tourist preference toward different tourism destinations has been a hot topic for decades in the field of tourism development. Tourist preference is mostly measured with small group opinion-based methods through introducing indicator systems in previous studies. In the digital age, e-tourism makes it possible to collect huge volumes of social data produced by tourists from the internet, to establish a new way of measuring tourist preference toward a close group of tourism destinations. This paper introduces a new model using social media data to quantitatively measure the market trend of a group of scenic spots from the angle of tourists’ demand, using three attributes: tourist sentiment orientation, present tourist market shares, and potential tourist awareness. Through data mining, cleaning, and analyzing with the framework of Machine Learning, the relative tourist preference toward 34 scenic spots closely located in the Dapeng Peninsula is calculated. The results not only provide a reliable “A-rating” system to gauge the popularity of different scenic spots, but also contribute an innovative measuring model to support scenic spots planning and policy making in the regional context.

  9. The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes

    OpenAIRE

    Finell, Philip; Hiller, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the  REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot ...

  10. Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

  11. Environmental strategies in the automobile industry; Umweltstrategien in der Automobilbranche

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bratzel, S.; Tellermann, R. [Center of Automotive, FHDW, Bergisch Gladbach (Germany)

    2007-12-15

    An actual market analysis on the environment strategies of the automobile industry concludes that the large companies react preferential with marketing measures to the climatic change debate and do not consequently support innovative environmental technology developments. The study show that the companies BMW, Toyota, and Volkswagen have the best environmental stategies, Daimler, Ford, Honda Porsche, Peugeot, Citroen show fragments of an environmental strategey, Chrysler, General Motors, Fiat, Mitsubishi and Nissan/Renault invest in marketing strategies, but not in environmental strategies.

  12. SPECULATIVE EFFICIENCY OF STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKETS:AN ANALYSIS ON THE ASEAN MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Normas Awang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The capital markets in emerging economies are undergoing rapid transformationdue to the advancement of technologicalinnovations and globalization of themarketplace. Thus, the risk managementmeasures are extremely importantthroughout the financial system. However,the scarcity of derivative instrumentssuch as futures and options in emergingmarkets, in addition to the failure togenerate liquidity, have made the emerging economies to be left behind in therecent development of the world capital markets. Whilethere are a great numberof earlier studies that analyse the efficiency of futures markets in differentcountries, there is a lack ofresearch that take intoaccount of the speculativeefficiency of futures markets which argues that futures prices are an unbiased forecast of the spot pricesas well as a crucial part offorecasting techniques. Thispaper aims to investigate the speculativeefficiency of stock index futures marketsin the ASEAN markets which comprises ofSingapore, Malaysia and Thailand byemploying an econometric time series dataanalysis ranging from January 2000 toDecember 2010.

  13. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  14. The modes of influence of oil on gas markets - The economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2016-01-01

    This article first indicates how the oil price has influence on some gas markets in the USA, in the UK and in the Asia-Pacific region. The author then focuses on this last region, notably Japan where the LNG market was strongly impacted by the oil price. Many Asian actors now want to reform the gas market in order to avoid such a strong influence. The author discusses the consequences of the development of shale gas exploitation in the USA, not only on the US domestic market, but also on Europe and Asia. In Europe, two types of prices are still coexisting: indexed and spot prices. Indexed prices might be reached in periods of tension on the market (during a cold winter), but the trend is globally oriented downwards. It seems that spot prices tend to converge toward indexed prices, at least in winter. Thus, despite the existence of indexed contracts, the influence of oil price is slowly decreasing. Finally, the author outlines upheavals experienced by the gas market since 2009 due to economic growth, development of shale gas, change of contract models, level of LNG supply, CO 2 price, increasing share of renewable energies

  15. Risk-minimisation in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tegner, Martin; Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Skajaa, Anders

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses risk management of fixed price, unspecified consumption contracts in energy markets. We model the joint dynamics of the spot-price and the consumption of electricity, study expected loss minimisation for different loss measures, and derive optimal static hedge strategies based...... on forward contracts. The strategies are implemented empirically and compared to a benchmark strategy widely used by the industry. On 2012–2014 Nordic market data, the suggested hedges significantly outperform the benchmark: The realised cumulative profit-and-losses are greater for almost every single one...

  16. Identification of measures for prevention of black spots in organically produced stored carrots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köhl, J.; Kastelein, P.; Elderson, J.; Blok, W.J.

    2005-01-01

    In the Netherlands winter carrot for the fresh market is a cash crop for many organic growers of field vegetables. In the last few years blackish spots have been observed during storage of carrot roots. An inventory was carried out in 2001/2002 and 2002/2003 including in total 42 carrot lots from 22

  17. The economics of electric energy storage and its interaction with market regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, X.

    2012-01-01

    This paper seeks to expose the interaction between the economics of EES and market regulation. An exhaustive investigation of relevant market regulations for the business of storage is conducted by examining (a) spot and futures markets, (b) ancillary services' procurement and (c) possible capacity enhancement. It is concluded that market regulation can be and should be improved in a number of ways to better recognize the value of EES. (author)

  18. Price formation and market mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neff, T.L.

    1991-01-01

    World markets for nuclear fuel have changed greatly since the 1970s. In earlier days, firms specializing in mining, conversion, enrichment and fabrication negotiated directly with end users, primarily under long term contracts at specified prices. This old model is gone. Market structure has been transformed: traditional suppliers now compete with traders, some of whom can offer a much larger menu of products and terms than primary suppliers. Utilities act as traders, converters as brokers, brokers as traders, producers as buyers, and so on. De-enrichment, de-conversion, loans, swaps, interchanges and other new kinds of transactions have proliferated. These changes in market structure and market mechanisms have been accompanied by substantial changes in price formation, that is the process by which market price is set. Today, the level and direction of price are set in a trading dominated spot market environment, fuelled by inventory liquidation and Soviet and other non-traditional supply. (author)

  19. The interdependence among oil markets: Any discernible patterns?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osayimwese, I.

    1992-01-01

    A study is presented which tests a hypothesis about co-movement of oil prices in all regions, implying that markets are interdependent. The hypothesis is tested against the background of the structural changes that occurred in the oil industry during the last 20 years, using the concept of cointegration. These changes occurred mainly in response to the oil price hikes in the 1970s and the price collapse in 1986. Refinery upgrading and increased flexibility in buying and selling crude oil and products, as well as the continuing articulation of oil markets with a variety of specific instruments, are key elements of the transformation during the past 15-20 years. A framework for modelling market interdependence via three approaches is outlined, focusing on the approach that consists of exploring the univariate time-series characteristics of two or more random variables with a view to verifying that the variables tend to move together in the long term. To examine the empirical evidence for market interdependence, monthly observations on crude and product prices from three major spot markets are used. Cointegration tests show that spot and futures market prices for gas, oil and crudes move closely together in the long run. In particular, the key role played by price differences rather than absolute price levels as a market barometer is confirmed. A test of the law of one price between two markets for the same crude or product generally confirms the co-movement of prices. It is concluded that, globally, oil markets are integrated and indeed constitute one great pool. 29 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  20. Electricity Market Optimization of Heat Pump Portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom S.

    2013-01-01

    We consider a portfolio of domestic heat pumps controlled by an aggregator. The aggregator is able to adjust the consumption of the heat pumps without affecting the comfort in the houses and uses this ability to shift the main consumption to hours with low electricity prices. Further......, the aggregator is able to place upward and downward regulating bids in the regulating power market based on the consumption flexibility. A simulation is carried out based on data from a Danish domestic heat pump project, historical spot prices, regulating power prices, and spot price predictions. The simulations...

  1. Operation of Modern Distribution Power Systems in Competitive Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao

    , DG units, loads and electricity price are studied. Further, the effect of energy storage systems will be considered, and an optimal operation strategy for energy storage devices in a large scale wind power system in the electricity market is proposed. The western Danish power system, which has large...... strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market in order to minimize the imbalance costs for regulation. A load optimization method based on spot price for demand side management in Denmark is proposed in order to save the energy costs for 3 types of typical Danish consumers...... maximum profit of the BESS is proposed. Two kinds of BESS, based on polysulfide-bromine (PSB) and vanadium redox (VRB) battery technologies, are studied. Optimal operation strategies of PEV in the spot market are then proposed in order to decrease the energy cost for PEV owners. Furthermore...

  2. A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajipriya, N.

    2012-10-01

    The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

  3. Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.

    2016-01-01

    as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types......, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology......, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market...

  4. Wholesale electricity markets in Europe; Mercados Mayoristas de Electricidad en Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rios, J. L.

    2010-07-01

    Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

  5. The world oil market is not one great pool: A reply to Rodriguez and Williams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    In a paper by Rodriguez and Williams (Energy Studies Review, 1993), the case for a single-pool world oil market is put forward. Criticisms of the assumptions and conclusions are offered. To counter the paper's assumption that antitrust is the relevant metric for measuring the extent of geographic markets, it is argued that for energy security policy decisions, it is the economic market which matters. The paper does show that the world oil market is indeed unified in the long run, but this is not relevant to the short term, the relevant time-frame for energy security decisions. The paper's choice of spot market data for its cointegration analysis is also criticized by using several examples of pricing decisions that would not make sense in a unified world market but which do make sense in a regionalized market. It is also unclear how representative spot prices are of the oil market. Finally, the conclusions of the paper that favor policies focusing on secure vs insecure import sources and supplier diversification are seen as unsupported by the paper's statistical findings. 15 refs

  6. Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Papatulica

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

  7. Rocky Mountain spotted fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... spotted fever on the foot Rocky Mountain spotted fever, petechial rash Antibodies Deer and dog tick References McElligott SC, Kihiczak GG, Schwartz RA. Rocky Mountain spotted fever and other rickettsial infections. In: Lebwohl MG, Heymann ...

  8. Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulshof, Daan; Maat, Jan-Pieter van der; Mulder, Machiel

    2016-01-01

    After the liberalisation of the gas industry, trading hubs have emerged in Europe. Although these hubs appear to be liquid market places fostering gas-to-gas competition, the efficiency of the gas market remains a topic of interest as a fair share of gas is still traded through long-term contracts with prices linked to the oil price while the number of gas suppliers to the European market is limited. In order to assess the efficiency of the gas market, we analyse the day-ahead spot price at the Dutch gas hub over the period 2011–2014. We find that the oil price had a small positive impact on the gas price. Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the movement in gas prices. The availability of gas in storages and the outside temperature negatively influenced the gas price. We also find that the gas price was related to the production of wind electricity. Overall, we conclude that the day-ahead gas prices are predominantly determined by gas-market fundamentals. Policies to further integrate gas markets within Europe may extend this gas-to-gas competition to a larger region. - Highlights: •We analyse the development of the day-ahead spot price at TTF over 2011–2014. •The oil price had a small impact on the gas price, while the coal price had no effect. •Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the gas prices. •The gas prices are predominantly determined by weather and storage availability. •Policies to integrate gas markets foster gas-to-gas competition.

  9. Bidding in sequential electricity markets: The Nordic case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Juul, Nina; Fleten, Stein-Erik

    2014-01-01

    problem as a multi-stage stochastic program. We investigate whether higher risk exposure can explain the hesitation, often observed in practice, to bid into the balancing market, even in cases of higher expected price levels. Furthermore, we quantify the gain from coordinated bidding, and by deriving......For electricity market participants trading in sequential markets with differences in price levels and risk exposure, coordinated bidding is highly relevant. We consider a Nordic power producer who engages in the day-ahead spot market and the near real-time balancing market. In both markets......, clearing prices and dispatched volumes are unknown at the time of bidding. However, in the balancing market, the agent faces an additional risk of not being dispatched. Taking into account the sequential clearing of these markets and the gradual realization of market prices, we formulate the bidding...

  10. Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

    2016-11-01

    Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

  11. Synthetic river flow time series generator for dispatch and spot price forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    Decision-making in electricity markets is complicated by uncertainties in demand growth, power supplies and fuel prices. In Peru, where the electrical power system is highly dependent on water resources at dams and river flows, hydrological uncertainties play a primary role in planning, price and dispatch forecast. This paper proposed a signal processing method for generating new synthetic river flow time series as a support for planning and spot market price forecasting. River flow time series are natural phenomena representing a continuous-time domain process. As an alternative synthetic representation of the original river flow time series, this proposed signal processing method preserves correlations, basic statistics and seasonality. It takes into account deterministic, periodic and non periodic components such as those due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The new synthetic time series has many correlations with the original river flow time series, rendering it suitable for possible replacement of the classical method of sorting historical river flow time series. As a dispatch and planning approach to spot pricing, the proposed method offers higher accuracy modeling by decomposing the signal into deterministic, periodic, non periodic and stochastic sub signals. 4 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  12. Do regulatory mechanisms promote competition and mitigate market power? Evidence from Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Moreira, António C.; Mota, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    This paper estimates the relationships between bidding quantities, marginal cost and market power measures in the Spanish wholesale electricity market for two different regulatory periods: 2002–2005 and 2006–2007. Using panel econometric techniques we find differences in the impacts on bidding strategies for both periods. Hence, the marginal cost and the market power measures affect bid and net quantities. The market power measures also suggest that the coefficient is consistently positive and highly significant for both periods. Moreover, the market power and marginal costs have mixed effects according to the models proposed for both periods. In addition, our results point to the effectiveness of the different effects of mitigating the market power in the Spanish electricity market. For the 2006–2007 period, the proposed causal relationships are partially validated by the cointegration results, which assumes there is a significant causality between the Lerner Index and the marginal cost. - Highlights: • Competition and regulation in the Spanish electricity market. • Net supplier and net demander behavior in the spot market. • Panel cointegration methods used: FMOLS, PMG, MG, DFE and DOLS. • The price cap regulation is effective in mitigating market power. • Market power and marginal cost have positive effects on bidding strategies

  13. Electron energy distribution control by fiat: breaking from the conventional flux ratio scaling rules in etch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjan, Alok; Wang, Mingmei; Sherpa, Sonam; Ventzek, Peter

    2015-03-01

    With shrinking critical dimensions, minimizing each of aspect ratio dependent etching (ARDE), bowing, undercut, selectivity, and within die uniformly across a wafer is met by trading off one requirement against another. The problem of trade-offs is especially critical. At the root of the problem is that roles radical flux, ion flux and ion energy play may be both good and bad. Increasing one parameter helps meeting one requirement but hinders meeting the other. Managing process by managing flux ratios and ion energy alone with conventional sources is not adequate because surface chemistry is uncontrollable. At the root of lack of control is that the electron energy distribution function (eedf) has not been controlled. Fortunately the high density surface wave sources control the eedf by fiat. High density surface wave sources are characterized by distinct plasma regions: an active plasma generation region with high electron temperature (Te) and an ionization free but chemistry rich diffusive region (low Te region). Pressure aids is segregating the regions by proving a means for momentum relaxation between the source and downstream region. "Spatial pulsing" allows access to plasma chemistry with reasonably high ion flux, from the active plasma generation region, just above the wafer. Low plasma potential enables precise passivation of surfaces which is critical for atomic layer etch (ALE) or high precision etch where the roles of plasma species can be limited to their purposed roles. High precision etch need not be at the cost of speed and manufacturability. Large ion flux at precisely controlled ion energy with RLSATM realizes fast desorption steps for ALE without compromising process throughput and precision.

  14. The Spotting Distribution of Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Martin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In wildfire science, spotting refers to non-local creation of new fires, due to downwind ignition of brands launched from a primary fire. Spotting is often mentioned as being one of the most difficult problems for wildfire management, because of its unpredictable nature. Since spotting is a stochastic process, it makes sense to talk about a probability distribution for spotting, which we call the spotting distribution. Given a location ahead of the fire front, we would like to know how likely is it to observe a spot fire at that location in the next few minutes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a detailed procedure to find the spotting distribution. Most prior modelling has focused on the maximum spotting distance, or on physical subprocesses. We will use mathematical modelling, which is based on detailed physical processes, to derive a spotting distribution. We discuss the use and measurement of this spotting distribution in fire spread, fire management and fire breaching. The appendix of this paper contains a comprehensive review of the relevant underlying physical sub-processes of fire plumes, launching fire brands, wind transport, falling and terminal velocity, combustion during transport, and ignition upon landing.

  15. Natural gas market assessment. Canadian natural gas market mechanisms: Recent experiences and developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-11-01

    The increase in natural gas demand and the associated expansions of most of the pipeline systems serving western Canada have reduced the excess deliverability or excess productive capacity that existed at the time of deregulation of the natural gas industry in 1985. Based on an industry survey, the responses of natural gas buyers and sellers to recent supply difficulties are described. Specific production, transportation, and contractual difficulties were encountered in winter 1992/93 as production was stretched to meet record levels of demand during periods of very cold temperatures and as short-term spot prices reached very high levels. Problems at this time included wellhead freezeups, pipeline outages, and inadequate contract terms and conditions. Methods used to maintain gas flows to end users are reviewed, including a discussion of force majeure, spot gas purchases, storage, supply curtailment, and special loan arrangements. In 1992/93, in most instances where the responsibility fell on the end-user to solve the supply problem, the difficulty was shifted to local distribution companies who have traditionally had more experience with such situations. No cases were identified where either a firm or interruptible end-user was forced to curtail gas consumption because of inadequate supply. New market mechanisms are emerging that will enable buyers and sellers of western Canadian gas to avoid many of the problems encountered in 1992/93. These include prearranged backstopping arrangements, short-term spot markets, access to other gas basins, standardized gas contracts, electronic trading, and price risk management tools. 11 figs

  16. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

  17. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

    2010-08-15

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

  18. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices: An exploratory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien, E-mail: julien.chevallier@dauphine.f [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

    2010-08-15

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content.

  19. Contributions to the financial mathematics of energy markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Permana, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis provides several contributions to quantitative finance for energy markets: electricity price modelling, implying oil price volatilities, pricing and hedging of exotic commodity options. Electricity spot prices are characterized by spikes (jumps) because electricity is non-storable. A

  20. Relationship between hot spot residues and ligand binding hot spots in protein-protein interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbe, Brandon S; Hall, David R; Vajda, Sandor; Whitty, Adrian; Kozakov, Dima

    2012-08-27

    In the context of protein-protein interactions, the term "hot spot" refers to a residue or cluster of residues that makes a major contribution to the binding free energy, as determined by alanine scanning mutagenesis. In contrast, in pharmaceutical research, a hot spot is a site on a target protein that has high propensity for ligand binding and hence is potentially important for drug discovery. Here we examine the relationship between these two hot spot concepts by comparing alanine scanning data for a set of 15 proteins with results from mapping the protein surfaces for sites that can bind fragment-sized small molecules. We find the two types of hot spots are largely complementary; the residues protruding into hot spot regions identified by computational mapping or experimental fragment screening are almost always themselves hot spot residues as defined by alanine scanning experiments. Conversely, a residue that is found by alanine scanning to contribute little to binding rarely interacts with hot spot regions on the partner protein identified by fragment mapping. In spite of the strong correlation between the two hot spot concepts, they fundamentally differ, however. In particular, while identification of a hot spot by alanine scanning establishes the potential to generate substantial interaction energy with a binding partner, there are additional topological requirements to be a hot spot for small molecule binding. Hence, only a minority of hot spots identified by alanine scanning represent sites that are potentially useful for small inhibitor binding, and it is this subset that is identified by experimental or computational fragment screening.

  1. SPOT Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason T.; Welsh, Sam J.; Farinetti, Antonio L.; Wegner, Tim; Blakeslee, James; Deboeck, Toni F.; Dyer, Daniel; Corley, Bryan M.; Ollivierre, Jarmaine; Kramer, Leonard; hide

    2010-01-01

    A Spacecraft Position Optimal Tracking (SPOT) program was developed to process Global Positioning System (GPS) data, sent via telemetry from a spacecraft, to generate accurate navigation estimates of the vehicle position and velocity (state vector) using a Kalman filter. This program uses the GPS onboard receiver measurements to sequentially calculate the vehicle state vectors and provide this information to ground flight controllers. It is the first real-time ground-based shuttle navigation application using onboard sensors. The program is compact, portable, self-contained, and can run on a variety of UNIX or Linux computers. The program has a modular objec-toriented design that supports application-specific plugins such as data corruption remediation pre-processing and remote graphics display. The Kalman filter is extensible to additional sensor types or force models. The Kalman filter design is also strong against data dropouts because it uses physical models from state and covariance propagation in the absence of data. The design of this program separates the functionalities of SPOT into six different executable processes. This allows for the individual processes to be connected in an a la carte manner, making the feature set and executable complexity of SPOT adaptable to the needs of the user. Also, these processes need not be executed on the same workstation. This allows for communications between SPOT processes executing on the same Local Area Network (LAN). Thus, SPOT can be executed in a distributed sense with the capability for a team of flight controllers to efficiently share the same trajectory information currently being computed by the program. SPOT is used in the Mission Control Center (MCC) for Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and International Space Station Program (ISSP) operations, and can also be used as a post -flight analysis tool. It is primarily used for situational awareness, and for contingency situations.

  2. Sporadic manipulation in money markets with central bank standing facilities

    OpenAIRE

    Ewerhart, Christian; Cassola, Nuno; Ejerskov, Steen; Valla, Natacha

    2004-01-01

    In certain market environments, a large investor may benefit from building up a futures position first and trading subsequently in the spot market (Kumar and Seppi, 1992). The present paper identifies a variation of this type of manipulation that might occur in money markets with an interest rate corridor. We show that manipulation involving the use of central bank facilities would be observable only sporadically. The probability of manipulation decreases when the central bank uses an active ...

  3. A market in transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, N.

    2014-01-01

    In March 2011, the uranium market was hit hard by the Fukushima disaster, which stalled the growth in nuclear reactor requirements and is still having a profound effect today with zero Japanese nuclear reactors in operation. To make matters worse, the evolving shale gas revolution has made it difficult for many U.S. merchant nuclear plants to compete with gas-fired plants, leading some of these plants to shut down early. As Japanese nuclear plants remain offline, uranium inventories have been building, with the market currently sitting on excess supply of about 14 million pounds U3O8 [~5,400 t U] for 2014. Due to the current oversupply situation, uranium prices have moved below where the true equilibrium likely should be, especially given that 50% of current uranium production is at a full cost above the current spot price of $35 per pound [91 USD/kg U]. Although new uranium projects are planned over the next few years, they are not assured of coming online unless market conditions improve. And with more production cutbacks eminent due to the unfavorable economics for some operating and planned uranium mines, the market could find itself in a volatile situation in only a few years with Chinese nuclear generation expected to grow rapidly, and new countries such as the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia advancing their nuclear power programs. In fact, the pullback in both the spot and long-term uranium prices over the past three years could again create a problem for the market over the next few years since there is currently less impetus to expand uranium production or engage in exploration. With global nuclear reactor requirements still increasing significantly in the medium- to long-term, more requisite new production will have to be brought online, especially with the U.S.-Russia HEU deal having ended last year, which contributed to up to 24 million pounds of U_3O_8 [~9,200 tU] feed annually. In addition to transitioning from an inventory-driven market to a production

  4. Models of spots and flares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, D.J.

    1983-01-01

    Laboratory experiments in recent years have shown that there are many more ways to drive a plasma out of equilibrium than to preserve equilibrium. In that sense, it is perhaps easier to understand why flares should occur in a stellar atmosphere than why a long-lived feature such as a dark spot should persist. The author summarizes work on the equilibrium structure of cool spots in the sun and stars. Since spots involve complex interactions between convective flows and magnetic fields, he needs to refer to observations for help in identifying the dominant processes which should enter into the modelling. His summary therefore begins by discussing certain relevant properties of spots in the solar atmosphere. The next sections deal with the magnetic fields in spots, the stability of spots, spot cooling and missing flux. The author concludes that spots should be viewed not simply as cool areas, but rather as engines which do the work of converting the energy of convective flows into flare-compatible form. (Auth.)

  5. Capacity mechanisms and effects on market structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elberg, Christina; Kranz, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Liberalized electricity markets are characterized by fluctuating priceinelastic demand of non-storable electricity, often defined by a substantial market share held by one or few incumbent firms. These characteristics have led to a controversial discussion concerning the need for and the design of capacity mechanisms, which combine some form of capacity payments with price caps in the spot market. The purpose of this study is to understand the effects of capacity mechanisms on the market structure. We consider a model with dominant firms and a competitive fringe and investigate the impact of price caps and capacity payments on investment incentives and market concentration. While lower price caps reduce the potential for the exercise of market power in static models, we find that in the dynamic model with endogenous investments, lower price caps result in an increase in market concentration, the frequency of capacity withholding and the profits of the dominant firms.

  6. Price dynamics in the market for Liquid Petroleum Gas transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adland, Roar; Jia Haiying; Lu Jing

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of the spot freight rate in the Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) shipping market. The spot freight rate process is nonparametrically specified so that the model allows for maximal flexibility in fitting the data. The model is estimated using data for the Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) sector and the estimation results are compared to those of crude oil tankers available in the literature. The empirical results suggest that the LPG spot freight rate can be appropriately described by a simple linear stochastic model and does not exhibit the non-linearity found in other bulk shipping sectors

  7. Essays on competition in electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

    The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under

  8. Effects of spot size and spot spacing on lateral penumbra reduction when using a dynamic collimation system for spot scanning proton therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyer, Daniel E; Hill, Patrick M; Wang, Dongxu; Smith, Blake R; Flynn, Ryan T

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this work was to investigate the reduction in lateral dose penumbra that can be achieved when using a dynamic collimation system (DCS) for spot scanning proton therapy as a function of two beam parameters: spot size and spot spacing. This is an important investigation as both values impact the achievable dose distribution and a wide range of values currently exist depending on delivery hardware. Treatment plans were created both with and without the DCS for in-air spot sizes (σ air ) of 3, 5, 7, and 9 mm as well as spot spacing intervals of 2, 4, 6 and 8 mm. Compared to un-collimated treatment plans, the plans created with the DCS yielded a reduction in the mean dose to normal tissue surrounding the target of 26.2–40.6% for spot sizes of 3–9 mm, respectively. Increasing the spot spacing resulted in a decrease in the time penalty associated with using the DCS that was approximately proportional to the reduction in the number of rows in the raster delivery pattern. We conclude that dose distributions achievable when using the DCS are comparable to those only attainable with much smaller initial spot sizes, suggesting that the goal of improving high dose conformity may be achieved by either utilizing a DCS or by improving beam line optics. (note)

  9. On the origin of delta spots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, F.

    1983-01-01

    Mount Wilson sunspot drawings from 1966 through 1980 were used in conjunction with Hα filtergrams from Big Bear Solar Observatory to examine the origin of delta spots, spots with bipolar umbrae within one penumbra. Of the six cases we studied, five were formed by the union of non-paired spots. They are either shoved into one another by two neighboring growing bipoles or by a new spot born piggy-back style on an existing spot of opposite polarity. Proper motions of the growing spots take on curvilinear paths around one another to avoid a collision. This is the shear motion observed in delta spots (Tanaka, 1979). In the remaining case, the delta spot was formed by spots that emerged as a pair. Our findings indicate no intrinsic differences in the formation or the behavior between delta spots of normal magnetic configuration. (orig.)

  10. Marketing digital e marketing de relacionamento: interação e engajamento como determinantes do crescimento de páginas do Facebook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Ribeiro Soares

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As transformações deflagradas pela internet, permitindo a aproximação de clientes e fornecedores, têm gerado crescentes reflexões acadêmicas e empresariais que culminam na proposição do uso de mídias sociais como ferramentas de marketing. Nesse sentido, este estudo buscou verificar o impacto das ações realizadas pela organização nas redes sociais relativamente às interações e ao engajamento de usuários, e seus reflexos para o crescimento da popularidade da marca no ambiente virtual. Tomando como unidade de análise a página da Fiat (Brasil no Facebook, perfazendo um corte longitudinal por 53 semanas, pôde-se concluir que as interações do administrador da página da empresa e o engajamento dos usuários promovem o crescimento de popularidade e engajamento da marca no ambiente virtual. Dessa maneira, as organizações precisam entender como suas ações nas redes sociais estão ecoando, apresentando indícios de quais tipos de conteúdos, horários e dias da semana da publicação determinaram maior crescimento da página do Facebook analisada.

  11. The evolution of hard coal trade in the Pacific market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekawan, Rudianto; Duchene, Michel; Goetz, Damien

    2006-01-01

    This article analyses the evolution of hard coal trade in the Asia Pacific region, known as the Pacific market, from the 1980s to the present years. It investigates the development of the trade pattern, the nature of contracts, the price setting, the supply demand and the future of trade. Over the last two decades, the international trade in the Pacific market has achieved dramatic increases in coal commerce. This achievement is due to strong demand in Japan and North-east Asian countries and progressive coal export in Australia and Indonesia. It is likely that this market will continue to expand and become a more important market in replacing the Atlantic market. In this market, historically, long-term supply contracts were usual and concluded between producer and consumer. Even recently, there are still annual contracts, but with a small number of deals. In contrast, spot transactions are now becoming more important. Previously, Japan had been influential in price setting by establishing 'a benchmark price' with Australian coal suppliers. Afterward 'a reference price' was becoming a trend. Nowadays, spot price indices, such as the Barlow Jonker, the Barlow Jonker ACR and globalCOAL, have become important to set the price. The Pacific market growth is not without problems. The exporter countries, particularly Australia and Indonesia, have some challenges that if they are not resolved at present, it would implicate the performance of the coal trade

  12. Inter ISO Market Coordination by Calculating Border Locational Marginal Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BABIC, A. B.

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the methodology for solving Locational Marginal Price (LMP differences (inconsistency of LMPs that arise at the boundary buses between separate power markets is proposed. The algorithm developed enables us to obtain consistent LMP values at the boundary buses between interconnected ISOs. A Primal-Dual Interior Point based optimal power flow (OPF is applied, with complete set of power system physical limit constraints, to solve a regional spot market. The OPF is implemented such that producer and consumer behaviors are modeled simultaneously, while the welfare is maximized. In this paper a generalized methodology for multiple ISOs case is proposed and later it is practically applied on two interconnected independent entities. The algorithm for approximation of cost coefficients of generators and dispatchable loads for neighboring ISOs is proposed. The developed algorithm enables participating ISOs to obtain LMPs at the boundary buses with other interconnected ISOs. By controlling interchange of electric power at the scheduled level, regional spot markets are resolved eliminating possible exercise of market power by individual interconnected ISOs. Results of proposed methodology are tested on the IEEE 118-bus power system.

  13. Sustainable marketing communication strategies of Russian companies under the import substitution policy

    OpenAIRE

    Chernova, Veronika,; Zobov, Alexander,; Starostin, Vasily,; Butkovskaya, Galina,

    2017-01-01

    International audience; The sanction standoff between Russia and the West opened up new opportunities for Russian food manufacturers. A new import substitution policy declared by the government restricted the access of the leading foreign countries to the market and unlocked a potential for internal development. Russian producers spotted new niches in the food market. There exist numerous obstacles to assimilating new market prospects: organizational (logistics, infrastructure, etc.), investm...

  14. Effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Young Woo; Yoon, Yong Tae; Park, Jong-Keun; Hur, Don; Kim, Sung-Soo

    2006-01-01

    The electricity markets with only few large firms are often vulnerable to less competitive behaviors than the desired. The presence of transmission constraints further restrict the competition among firms and provide more opportunities for firms to exercise market power. While it is generally acknowledged that the long-term contracts provide good measures for mitigating market power in the spot market (thus reducing undesired price spikes), it is not even more clear how effective these contracts are if the market is severely limited due to transmission constraints. In this paper, an analytical approach through finding a Nash equilibrium is presented to investigate the effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in a bid-based pool with transmission constraints. Surprisingly the analysis in this paper shows that the presence of long-term contracts may result in the reduced expected social welfare. A straightforward consequence of the analysis presented in this paper will be helpful for the regulators in Korea to reconsider offering vesting contracts to generating companies in the near future. (author)

  15. Comparing the spot prices from Powernext and EEX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galli, A.; Armstrong, M.

    2005-01-01

    Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange. Powernext started operating on 27 November 2001. Although the German exchange, EEX, has been functioning for much longer, the two have many common points. Both use the same system for fixing the day-ahead spot price, the one developed by NordPool. In contrast to Omel in Spain, power producers in France and Germany are not obliged to sell through the exchange. In addition, the cross-border transmission lines that physically link the French and German grids, not only make the electricity supply more reliable they also allow cross-border commercial transactions which should homogenize prices in both countries. So after nearly a year of operation it is interesting to compare the spot prices on the two exchanges in order to have a better understanding of the statistical properties of the prices in the two markets and the relationship between them. This information will be used when modelling the structure of the day-ahead spot prices. The data used to carry out the study consists of the (hourly) spot prices for electricity from Powernext and EEX, for the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 December 2002. Data from the first five weeks of trading were not included because traded volumes were relatively low initially and so these data are not necessarily representative. This report is divided into four sections. The first one presents the basic statistics, starting with the histograms of all the 8064 spot prices in the 336 days, for both exchanges. In time series data, it is usual to find three types of seasonality: daily, weekly and annual. As the available data cover less than one calendar year, it is too early to attempt to study annual trends. So we limit ourselves to studying daily and weekly fluctuations. Plotting the hourly average prices for each day of the week shows some interesting differences between Powernext and

  16. Capacity subscription and its market design impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard; Solem, Gerd

    2005-04-01

    Capacity Subscription (CS) implies that consumers buy (subscribe to) a certain amount of capacity. Their demand is limited to this capacity when the total power system is short of capacity and the System Operator activates controllable Load Limiting Devices (LLDs). The objective is to maintain system security by avoiding involuntary load shedding. The report describes a market design with CS. As a case study, an analysis is made of the changes in the market design of the Nordic system that would be necessary to implement CS. First the present Nordic market design is described. Focus is on the various market participants, their roles within various time horizons and their interactions. So it is described how CS works, why it works and what is necessary to make it work. Subsequently the necessary changes in the Nordic market structure are described. The major changes are the installation of the LLDs, the establishment of the necessary infrastructure to control the LLDs and the rules governing their control and the establishment of a capacity market. The major rule is that the System Operator announces LLD activation when a shortage situation is expected. In the capacity market generators offer available capacity during system peak conditions, while consumers bid their need for capacity. Market participants are the same as on the spot market, while small consumers buy through retailer. Generators are obliged to offer the capacity sold on the capacity market on the spot market during LLD activation. Failure to do so results in a penalty payment. The report further discusses issues like the need for verification procedures, import and export, generation pooling, the handling of small consumers, reserves and a possible implementation path of CS. With respect to transmission constraints it is argued that market splitting can be a viable option. It is concluded that CS can be a possible solution to maintain generation adequacy, but there are some serious challenges. The

  17. Strategic marketing of innovations in the cosmetic market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. S. Laskina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is discusses the scientific and theoretical approaches to marketing of innovations in the cosmetic market in the strategic aspect. It is showing the development of the concept of strategic marketing innovation in the foreign and domestic scientific literature; the key concepts of marketing innovations is clarified; elements of the commercialization of innovative products is identified; the specificity of strategic marketing innovations in the cosmetic market in the Russian conditions is established; actual problems of innovative development and commercialization of innovations is identified; an assessment of the Russian market of innovations. The marketing of innovations – is a systematic methodological approach that combines the strategy and tactics of promotion goods (works, services, technologies, having substantially new properties, at the level of economic entities, it is proved. Under the innovative products offered to understand the implementation of the results of scientific and technological activities in the form of goods, works and services, which have an absolute or relative scientific and technological novelty and (or consumer value, going beyond the existing traditions. Innovative production is subdivided into two main categories: not commercialized and the commercialized production. Process of commercialization of innovative goods is considered as three-level system: the first level is the state innovation policy (macro-level; the second level – regional innovation policy (meso-level; the third level – commodity innovative policy of enterprise (micro-level. It was shown that the weak spots for Russian manufacturers of innovative products has been and remains insufficient elaboration of organizational and methodological approaches to strategic marketing of innovations in industry the as aspect, including in the sector of cosmetic goods. Recommendations for the development of marketing strategy of

  18. Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gretener, N.M.

    1996-01-01

    A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller's obligation to deliver, and the buyer's obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller's right to decontract

  19. Roth spots in pernicious anaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macauley, Mavin; Nag, Satyajit

    2011-04-19

    Roth spots are white-centred retinal haemorrhages, previously thought to be pathognomonic for subacute bacterial endocarditis. A number of other conditions can be associated with Roth spots. In this case, the authors describe the association of Roth spots and pernicious anaemia. This association has been rarely described in the medical literature. Correct diagnosis and treatment with intramuscular vitamin B(12) injections resulted in complete resolution of the anaemia and Roth spots. The authors hope to alert clinicians to think of various differentials of Roth spots, and initiate prompt investigation and management.

  20. Bottom-up design of a gas futures market in East Asia: Lessons from the Dojima rice exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xunpeng Shi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The natural gas market in East Asia remains fragmented without a functioning benchmark price to duly reflect the dynamics of demand and supply forces in the region. A functional regional gas futures market, which is highly dependent on the presence of well-developed physical spot trading, is yet to be established. Since the intra-regional pipeline connection is largely non-existent in East Asia, it is the LNG spot cargo trading that is likely to become the basis for the regional gas futures market. This paper offers a novel approach to understanding the development of such a market by analyzing the experience of a different commodity market – the Dojima Rice Exchange (DRE – and identifying potentially transferrable lessons in the market design and the role of government regulations. Based on the case study analysis, implications for the development of natural gas trading hubs in East Asia are offered and an LNG futures exchange design is put forward.

  1. Capacity competition in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crampes, Claude; Creti, Anna

    2005-01-01

    The article analyzed a two-stage game where capacity constrained electricity generators first choose how much capacity they make available and then compete in a uniform-rice auction. It is studied how capacity withholding can be used strategically to enforce market power and how uniform auctions in the price game change the results of capacity constrained competition models. The uniform auction procedure gives strong incentives to capacity restriction. At equilibrium, however, power shortage never occurs. Though auctions in electricity markets have already been studied by several economists, yet an important feature of spot trading is the capacity availability decision. In fact, for technical reasons, such as equipment maintenance or failures, the installed capacity may not work at maximum operating level and the spot market rules oblige generators to announce which plants they are willing to use and simultaneously their offer prices. Beside technical reasons, the so-called 'capacity declarations' also offer a strategic instrument for firms: by restricting capacity, operators can benefit from scarcity rents. Assessing whether generators withhold capacity is an intriguing issue for real electricity markets, though proving it is a difficult task. Several theoretical papers show that generators are able to keep wholesale prices high as compared to their generation costs. In our model, a generator is not obliged to declare all installed capacity as available, but decides on the amount of MW of electricity that is available. Hence the available capacity is an endogenous variable while the installed one is exogenous. The distinction between installed capacities and 'available' capacities allows to explain clearly whether generators exert market power by declaring unavailable some production units. Although we find multiple sub game perfect equilibria that cannot be eliminated by Pareto-dominance, all the outcomes are characterized by market price at the highest

  2. Comparison of outcomes between overlapping-spot and single-spot photodynamic therapy for circumscribed choroidal hemangioma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao-An Su

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available AIM:To compare the efficacy and safety of photodynamic therapy (PDT with overlapping multiple spots and single spot for treating circumscribed choroidal hemangioma.METHODS:Twenty-two patients (22 eyes with symptomatic circumscribed choroidal hemangioma received PDT treatment. Fourteen patients received overlapping spots (two to three spots PDT, whereas eight patients received single-spot PDT. Laser was used at 50J/cm2 for 83s in the overlapping-spot group and 50J/cm2 for 166s in the single-spot group. Clinical examination, funduscopy, fluorescein angiography, and ultrasonography were performed at baseline and after treatment.RESULTS:The mean follow-up time was 28.5±8.0 months in the overlapping-spot group and 27.0±5.0 months in the single-spot group. Nine patients (64.2% had their vision improved over two lines on the Snellen chart, and five patients showed stable visual acuity in the overlapping-spot group. The mean thickness of tumor decreased from 2.7±0.8mm to 1.2±0.9mm, and the mean greatest tumor linear dimension decreased from 7.4±1.5mm to 4.5±3.5mm after treatment. In the single-spot group, two patients (25% had their vision improved over two lines on the Snellen chart, and six patients had unchanged stable vision. The mean tumor thickness in this group decreased from 2.5±0.7mm to 1.4±1.0mm, and the mean greatest tumor linear dimension decreased from 7.2±1.3mm to 4.7±3.6mm. No significant differences in visual improvement and tumor regression were found between the two groups.CONCLUSION: Overlapping-spot PDT under appropriate treatment parameters and strategies is as effective and safe as single-spot PDT for treating symptomatic circumscribed choroidal hemangioma. Improved or stabilized visual acuity was achieved as a result of tumor regression.

  3. Strategic capacity withholding through failures in the German-Austrian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergler, Julian; Heim, Sven; Hüschelrath, Kai

    2017-01-01

    In electricity day-ahead markets organized as uniform price auction, a small reduction in supply in times of high demand can cause substantial increases in price. We use a unique data set of failures of generation capacity in the German-Austrian electricity market to investigate the relationship between electricity spot prices and generation failures. Differentiating between strategic and non-strategic failures, we find a positive impact of prices on non-usable marginal generation capacity for strategic failures only. Our empirical analysis therefore provides evidence for the existence of strategic capacity withholding through failures suggesting further monitoring efforts by public authorities to effectively reduce the likelihood of such abuses of a dominant position. - Highlights: • We investigate the relationship between electricity spot prices and generation failures. • Announced (non-strategic) failures are found to decrease with increasing price. • Unannounced (strategic) failures of marginal technologies increase with increasing price. • Our evidence is consistent with the presence of capacity withholding strategies in the German-Austrian electricity market.

  4. Water Markets in Spain: Performance and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Palomo-Hierro

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Law 46/1999 incorporated formal water markets into the Spanish legal and regulatory framework, allowing spot water markets and the creation of water banks. The implementation of water markets in Spain aimed at improving the efficiency of water use by reallocating water towards uses with higher added value. However, the performance of water markets in Spain has been rather disappointing, since they have been operative only during drought periods, and even under these extreme scarcity situations, trading activity counted for less than 5.0% of total water use. The narrowness of the market suggests that there are some barriers hampering their effective functioning. This paper examines the evolution and performance of water markets in Spain, relying on a transaction costs analysis framework. This analysis allows the identification of the main factors impeding water markets from operating effectively as a water reallocation tool. This analysis also provides some guidelines on how to overcome these obstacles and, thus, how to improve the efficiency of water use.

  5. Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

  6. Bottom-up design of a gas futures market in East Asia: Lessons from the Dojima rice exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Shi, Xunpeng; Li, Yanfei; Reshetova, Elena

    2017-01-01

    The natural gas market in East Asia remains fragmented without a functioning benchmark price to duly reflect the dynamics of demand and supply forces in the region. A functional regional gas futures market, which is highly dependent on the presence of well-developed physical spot trading, is yet to be established. Since the intra-regional pipeline connection is largely non-existent in East Asia, it is the LNG spot cargo trading that is likely to become the basis for the regional gas futures m...

  7. What You Should Know About Carbon Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Mansanet-Bataller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, carbon trading has been in continuous expansion. In this paper, we review the origins of carbon trading in order to understand how carbon trading works in Europe and, specifically, the functioning of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS and the workings of several spot, futures and options markets where European Union Allowances are traded. As well, the linking of the EU ETS with the other United Nations carbon markets is also studied.

  8. Pricing Natural Gas. The Outlook for the European Market (Summary)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Long-term gas supply contracts contain price formulae, in which the gas price is usually linked to the price of another commodity, or to the spot price of gas in a particular market. In continental Europe the gas price in international long-term supply contracts is predominantly linked to oil products. At the same time, spot markets for gas in which gas prices are determined by supply and demand are developing in various EU markets. This paper addresses the question of to what extent the traditional form of oil-based price indexation is sustainable and/or will be sustained by the market players. It discusses the considerations the market players may have in favour of one or the other form of indexation, the external forces that may influence the choice of indexation in the short and longer terms and the consequences of change. It argues that pricing systems are a fundamental part of a market organisation, and that a shift to different pricing structures only happens if and when the main actors are convinced that they understand and accept the consequences of such change. It concludes that there is no strong evidence that the current hybrid situation, in which both forms of gas pricing co-exist, cannot continue. There are also no overriding reasons to intervene in the market practices of price formation. Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages under different market conditions, and to some extent complement each other in the current markets. Different types of risk and the appreciation thereof by the trading parties will determine particular choices of pricing rules and contracting conditions. More importantly, in today's market, in which new supplies are slow to come forward, the choice should be left to the market parties, particularly as sellers and buyers do not seem to be in strong disagreement

  9. Creating competitive markets for ancillary services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirst, E.; Kirby, B.

    1997-10-01

    This report describes the structure of, and results from, a spreadsheet model. The model simulates markets for seven services: losses, regulation, spinning reserve, supplemental reserve,load following, energy imbalance, and voltage support. For completeness, the model also calculates costs for system control, although this service will continue to be provided solely the the system operator under cost-based prices. This computer model demonstrated the likely complexity of markets for energy and ancillary services. This complexity arises because these markets are highly interdependent. Because these markets are interactive, the costs and therefore the prices of these services will vary considerably as functions of system load and the current spot price of energy. The price of ancillary services in aggregate is highly correlated with the price of energy. A base-case utility was developed for use with the model and included in the report.

  10. Method for laser spot welding monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manassero, Giorgio

    1994-09-01

    As more powerful solid state laser sources appear on the market, new applications become technically possible and important from the economical point of view. For every process a preliminary optimization phase is necessary. The main parameters, used for a welding application by a high power Nd-YAG laser, are: pulse energy, pulse width, repetition rate and process duration or speed. In this paper an experimental methodology, for the development of an electrooptical laser spot welding monitoring system, is presented. The electromagnetic emission from the molten pool was observed and measured with appropriate sensors. The statistical method `Parameter Design' was used to obtain an accurate analysis of the process parameter that influence process results. A laser station with a solid state laser coupled to an optical fiber (1 mm in diameter) was utilized for the welding tests. The main material used for the experimental plan was zinc coated steel sheet 0.8 mm thick. This material and the related spot welding technique are extensively used in the automotive industry, therefore, the introduction of laser technology in production line will improve the quality of the final product. A correlation, between sensor signals and `through or not through' welds, was assessed. The investigation has furthermore shown the necessity, for the modern laser production systems, to use multisensor heads for process monitoring or control with more advanced signal elaboration procedures.

  11. Analysis on one type of swing option in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mistry, Hetal A.

    2005-01-01

    In the Nordic electricity market most of the trading takes place in derivates and options. To describe these products theoretically one needs to have knowledge from stochastic analysis. This thesis will derive a price model for one type of swing option in energy market. The main aim of writing this thesis is to introduce coal power plant and how to approach the problem if such power plant is built in Norway. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price of electricity and coal, and then derive theoretical option prices. I use a Schwartz process for model and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity and coal. This model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the Schwartz model. The main objectives of this thesis were to find the price for a tolling contract in energy market and production volume that is producers control function. The first chapters gives an over view about the agreement and the formula used to derive the price. The second chapter provided me with the material I needed to derive these price and production volume such as dynamics for the spot prices for electricity and coal and their solution. Third chapter gives a statistical look on these stochastic processes. In the last chapter I tested the price model for stochastic control problem and found that the swing option can be bound in two ways: 1. Swing option limited as Margrabes solution. 2. Swing option limited as spread option. The use of the model is discussed. (Author)

  12. Study on the new financial products traded on the Forex Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurenţiu Paul BARANGA

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward an analysis of the new trends in terms of foreign currency transactions and, implicitly, the new financial products traded on the Forex market with a view to identify the category they belong to, namely foreign currency transactions or foreign exchange derivative transactions. Also, the implications of including the new products traded on the Forex market into one of the two categories have been taken into account, both in terms of market microstructure and in terms of investor-wise implications. Thus, the analysis showed that, by changing the destination of the amounts deposited by clients into the settlement account of the Forex services provider, i.e. from amounts deposited in order to cover the equivalent of purchased foreign currencies into amounts deposited in order to cover any price difference, financial products such as currency pairs and rolling spot Forex acquire features similar to those of derivatives (such as Contracts For Difference - CFDs. Further, acknowledging these financial products of the Forex market (currency pairs and rolling spot Forex as derivatives would determine a series of transformations of the microstructure of the market they are traded on, changes that would contribute to a better protection of investors and to improved monitoring and prevention by the supervisory authorities of the potential risks induced by such transactions on the financial market.

  13. SpotCaliper: fast wavelet-based spot detection with accurate size estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Püspöki, Zsuzsanna; Sage, Daniel; Ward, John Paul; Unser, Michael

    2016-04-15

    SpotCaliper is a novel wavelet-based image-analysis software providing a fast automatic detection scheme for circular patterns (spots), combined with the precise estimation of their size. It is implemented as an ImageJ plugin with a friendly user interface. The user is allowed to edit the results by modifying the measurements (in a semi-automated way), extract data for further analysis. The fine tuning of the detections includes the possibility of adjusting or removing the original detections, as well as adding further spots. The main advantage of the software is its ability to capture the size of spots in a fast and accurate way. http://bigwww.epfl.ch/algorithms/spotcaliper/ zsuzsanna.puspoki@epfl.ch Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX prices • Market leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

  15. The dynamics of risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mork, E.

    2006-01-01

    Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and forwards

  16. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  17. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

  18. Roth spots in pernicious anaemia

    OpenAIRE

    Macauley, Mavin; Nag, Satyajit

    2011-01-01

    Roth spots are white-centred retinal haemorrhages, previously thought to be pathognomonic for subacute bacterial endocarditis. A number of other conditions can be associated with Roth spots. In this case, the authors describe the association of Roth spots and pernicious anaemia. This association has been rarely described in the medical literature. Correct diagnosis and treatment with intramuscular vitamin B12 injections resulted in complete resolution of the anaemia and Roth spots. The author...

  19. Eastern Europe's market role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, K.F.

    1991-01-01

    Until the late 1980s, trade in nuclear fuel between market economy countries and those with planned economies was limited. The exception to this was in the enrichment market across Western Europe during the 1970s. Most of the nuclear generating plants in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are light water reactors needing enriched uranium. Under the fuel supply agreements with Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union has provided all of the regions' enrichment services, and therefore it has developed the only enrichment facilities. Techsnabexport (TENEX), the USSR foreign trade organization for the nuclear fuel cycle, first appeared in the early 1970s. It was as an alternative supplier to the US government, which had a monopoly in the West regarding enrichment. In 1986 the USSR entered and soon dominated the spot market for enrichment. Political changes in Eastern Europe at the end of 1989 and throughout 1990 opened the nuclear fuel market even wider. In 1990 the USSR began allowing exports of concentrates, as well as enriched product, and a free flow of trade to the Western market is now developing for both enrichment and uranium. (author)

  20. Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiao-Ming; He, Fei

    2014-01-01

    Utilising a time-varying GAR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) model with different frequency data, we investigate the weak-form efficiency of major global crude oil spot markets in Europe, the US, the UAE and China for the period from December 2001 to August 2013. Our empirical results with weekly data indicate that all four markets have reached efficiency with few brief inefficient periods during the past decade, whereas the daily crude oil returns series suggest intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. We argue that the weekly Friday series fit the data better than the average series in autocorrelation tests. The evidence suggests that all four markets exhibit asymmetries in return-volatility reactions to different information shocks and that they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly affected the efficiency of oil markets. Furthermore, a comovement phenomenon and volatility spillover effects exist among the oil markets. Policy recommendations consistent with our empirical results are proposed, which address three issues: implementing prudential regulations, establishing an Asian pricing centre and improving transparency in crude oil spot markets. - Highlights: • We adopt a time-varying model to test the weak-form efficiency of crude oil markets. • Weekly oil returns series have been extremely efficient during the past decade. • Daily oil returns series have presented intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. • Oil markets react asymmetrically to different information shocks. • Policy recommendations are proposed according to the degree of efficiency

  1. Ionospheric hot spot at high latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schunk, R.W.; Sojka, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    A hot spot (or spots) can occur in the high-latitude ionosphere depending on the plasma convection pattern. The hot spot corresponds to a small magnetic local time-magnetic latitude region of elevated ion temperatures located near the dusk and/or dawn meridians. For asymmetric convection electric field patterns, with enhanced flow in either the dusk or dawn sector of the polar cap, a single hot spot should occur in association with the strong convection cell. However, on geomagnetically disturbed days, two strong convection cells can occur, and hence, two hot spots should exist. The hot spot should be detectable when the electric field in the strong convection cell exceeds about 40 mV m -1 . For electric fields of the order of 100 mV m -1 in the convection cell, the ion temperature in the hot spot is greatest at low altitudes, reaching 4000 0 K at 160 km, and decreases with altitude in the F-region. An ionospheric hot spot (or spots) can be expected at all seasons and for a wide range of solar cycle conditions

  2. Variable-spot ion beam figuring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Lixiang; Qiu, Keqiang; Fu, Shaojun

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a new scheme of ion beam figuring (IBF), or rather variable-spot IBF, which is conducted at a constant scanning velocity with variable-spot ion beam collimated by a variable diaphragm. It aims at improving the reachability and adaptation of the figuring process within the limits of machine dynamics by varying the ion beam spot size instead of the scanning velocity. In contrast to the dwell time algorithm in the conventional IBF, the variable-spot IBF adopts a new algorithm, which consists of the scan path programming and the trajectory optimization using pattern search. In this algorithm, instead of the dwell time, a new concept, integral etching time, is proposed to interpret the process of variable-spot IBF. We conducted simulations to verify its feasibility and practicality. The simulation results indicate the variable-spot IBF is a promising alternative to the conventional approach.

  3. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets based on DCCA and DMCA methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Chen, Yuemeng; Yang, Chunxia

    2014-05-01

    Based on the daily price data of Shanghai and London gold spot markets, we applied detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and detrended moving average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) methods to quantify power-law cross-correlation between domestic and international gold markets. Results show that the cross-correlations between the Chinese domestic and international gold spot markets are multifractal. Furthermore, forward DMCA and backward DMCA seems to outperform DCCA and centered DMCA for short-range gold series, which confirms the comparison results of short-range artificial data in L. Y. He and S. P. Chen [Physica A 390 (2011) 3806-3814]. Finally, we analyzed the local multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between Chinese domestic and international gold markets. We show that multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets are time-varying and that multifractal characteristics were strengthened by the financial crisis in 2007-2008.

  4. Multivariate long memory processes: applications to the EDF producer problematic in the context of the european electricity market liberalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diongue, A.K.

    2005-10-01

    Certain crucial financial time series, such as the interconnected european electricity market spot prices, exhibit long memory, in the sense of slowly decaying correlations combined with heteroskedasticity and periodic or none cycles. In modeling such behavior, we consider on one hand, the k factor GIGARCH process and additionally propose two methods to address the related parameter estimation problem. In each method, we explore the asymptotic theory for estimation. Moreover, the asymptotic properties are validated and compared via Monte Carlo simulations. On the other hand, we introduce a new multivariate long memory generalized model (k-factor MVGARMA) in order to model interconnected european electricity market spot prices. We suggest a practical framework to address the parameter estimation problem. We investigate the analytical expressions of the least squares predictors for the two proposed models and their confidence intervals. To finish, we apply the two proposed models to the french and german electricity market spot prices and a comparison is made between their forecasting abilities. (author)

  5. Capacity pricing in a free market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangensteen, Ivar; Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2005-01-01

    This report deals primarily with pricing of reserve capacity, partly on a theoretical basis and partly based on practical experience from the Norwegian market. In the theoretical part we describe a simple model for investigation of equilibrium prices on capacity reserves, spot power and regulating power. This model is based on strong simplifying assumptions. Next a computer model is introduced. That enables more complexity and makes it possible to analyse more realistic scenarios. Finally the report describes experiences from the Norwegian market. The Norwegian System Operator, Statnett, is responsible for the Balancing Market (BM) and Reserves Option Market (ROM), which was introduced a few years ago as a separate market for reserves. Experience with these market instruments are generally good and Statnett is preparing a new version for the winter 2004/2005. The report deals with generation as well as consumer side capacity reserves. One interesting observation is that in Norway the consumer side is providing more capacity reserves than the generators, but the consumers normally bid in a higher BM price than the generators. (author)

  6. Price discovery in dual-class shares across multiple markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina

    2018-01-01

    data to study price discovery in dual-class Brazilian stocks and their ADRs. We find that the foreign market is at least as informative as the home market and that shocks in the dual-class premium entail a permanent effect in normal times, but transitory in periods of financial distress......This paper proposes a new measure of price discovery that uses the spectral decomposition. The methodology is especially important in the context of large price systems, such as interest rate parities with spot and futures contracts or dual-class shares in multiple markets. We employ high frequency...

  7. Microbiological and biochemical changes in pearl spot (Etroplus suratensis Bloch) stored under modified atmospheres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalitha, K V; Sonaji, E R; Manju, S; Jose, L; Gopal, T K S; Ravisankar, C N

    2005-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the effect of packaging [air, modified atmosphere (MA)] on microbial growth, sensory and chemical parameters and also on shelf life of fresh pearl spot (Etroplus suratensis Bloch) and on the selection of microbial association. Fresh pearl spot (whole, gutted) were packaged under both 100% air and MAs (40%CO(2)/60% O(2), 50%CO(2)/50%O(2), 60% CO(2)/40%O(2), 70% CO(2)/30% O(2) and 40% CO(2)/30% O(2)/30% N(2)) and stored at 0 degrees C. Microbial growth (counts of total aerobic bacteria, H(2)S-producing bacteria, Lactic acid bacteria, Brochothrix thermosphacta, yeast and mould), chemical spoilage indicators (pH, total volatile basic nitrogen) and sensory characteristics were monitored. Microbial changes in Pearl spot packed under 100% air and 40% CO(2)/30%O(2)/30% N(2) were similar. The total volatile basic nitrogen values increased, but the values never exceeded the acceptability limit of 25 mg 100 g(-1). MA 60% CO(2) : 40%O(2) was found to be better with a shelf life of 21 days whereas air stored samples had a shelf-life of 12-14 days only. Storage of pearl spot under MAs 60% CO(2) : 40%O(2) is a promising method to extend shelf-life. Longer shelf life expands the market potential of pearl spot and reduces waste during distribution and retail display.

  8. Research document no. 24. The integration of european electric markets: from the national markets juxtaposition to the establishment of a regional market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    2000-11-01

    After the transcription of the electricity directive in national legislations, the European electricity market appears to be a vast set of juxtaposed markets which are weakly connected at the level of their wholesale contracts compartment. Referring to the technological peculiarities of electricity as a commodity, the paper identifies the direct conditions of regional integration of the electricity markets, those which would favour cross-border trade and allow to be near the normal functioning of a regional commodity market. The infrastructure network dependence and the need of a stringent technical coordination necessitate to unify the operation of the different systems and the rules of access, or at the least to come near this unification by strong coordination. A second major condition, which is not fully debated, is the increasing connexion of short-term markets, via daily physical trade and emergence of a European financial market, which could trade various standardised contracts referring to a single hourly spot price, or to prices in various delivery points. To reach such an integration, two paths are possible: either concentration into one single organised power exchange as the Nordic pool, or rules harmonization of the various power exchanges which would be a minimal requirement to allow arbitrations between them. (author)

  9. [Study on Hexagonal Super-Lattice Pattern with Light Spot and Dim Spot in Dielectric Barrier Discharge by Optical Emission Spectra].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ying; Dong, Li-fang; Niu, Xue-jiao; Zhang, Chao

    2016-02-01

    The hexagonal super-lattice pattern composed of the light spot and the dim spot is firstly observed and investigated in the discharge of gas mixture of air and argon by using the dielectric barrier discharge device with double water electrodes. It is found that the dim spot is located at the center of its surrounding three light spots by observing the discharge image. Obviously, the brightness of the light spot and the dim spot are different, which indicates that the plasma states of the light spot and the dim spot may be different. The optical emission spectrum method is used to further study the several plasma parameters of the light spot and the dim spot in different argon content. The emission spectra of the N₂ second positive band (C³IIu --> B³IIg) are measured, from which the molecule vibration temperatures of the light spot and the dim spot are calculated. Based on the relative intensity ratio of the line at 391.4 nm and the N₂ line at 394.1 nm, the average electron energies of the light spot and the dim spot are investigated. The broadening of spectral line 696.57 nm (2P₂-1S₅) is used to study the electron densities of the light spot and the dim spot. The experiment shows that the molecule vibration temperature, average electron energy and the electron density of the dim spot are higher than those of the light spot in the same argon content. The molecule vibration temperature and electron density of the light spot and dim spot increase with the argon content increasing from 70% to 95%, while average electron energies of the light spot and dim spot decrease gradually. The short-exposure image recorded by a high speed video camera shows that the dim spot results from the surface discharges (SDs). The surface discharge induced by the volume discharge (VD) has the decisive effect on the formation of the dim spot. The experiment above plays an important role in studying the formation mechanism of the hexagonal super-lattice pattern with light spot and

  10. Numerical optimisation in spot detector design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Heijden, Ferdinand; Apperloo, W.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

    1997-01-01

    Spots are image details resulting from objects, the projections of which are so small that the inner structure of these objects cannot be resolved from their image. Spot detectors are image operators aiming at the detection and localisation of spots in the image. Most spot detectors can be tuned

  11. Fiat Auto: Industrial Relations Lost in Globalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Caputo

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In the actual context of globalization, carmakers face a highly competitive market. The pace of technological innovation, the increase in international competition, the saturation of markets and the shortening of product lifespan are but some of the factors requiring a new organization of production. In order to face these radical changes, carmakers are implementing new strategies, not only by embracing the concept of globalization, but also by promoting changes in labour management practices, work organization and industrial relations. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of Fiat’s new managerial strategies in response to increased global competition on the situation of the industrial relations, on the role of the Unions and on the condition of workers. These strategies include an intensification of work, shift and wage flexibility, plus a severe limitations of workers’ rights (including the right to strike. On the one hand, such a strategy was presented and justified to the workers and the public as an objective necessity of global economy, and was even submitted to a referendum; on the other, the process was conducted unilaterally, under the recurring threat of transferring production abroad if the workers and their Unions refused to accept the new method. This brought to a split of the Unions and dialogue was maintained only with collaborative organisations, causing the discrimination of the other Unions and a situation of great dissatisfaction amongst all the workers. Through the words of workers and Union activists, the research showed evidence of the failure of claims that new management strategy can ensure both productivity and a new form of workplace democracy in the post-fordist factory. Despite new labour-saving technologies, lean production organisation and the adoption of new metric systems (such as Ergo-UAS, car industry would need, more than in the past, the involvement and active participation of Unions and workers

  12. Large-scale Wind Power integration in a Hydro-Thermal Power Market

    OpenAIRE

    Trøtscher, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    This master thesis describes a quadratic programming model used to calculate the spot prices in an efficient multi-area power market. The model has been adapted to Northern Europe, with focus on Denmark West and the integration of large quantities of wind power. In the model, demand and supply of electricity are equated, at an hourly time resolution, to find the spot price in each area. Historical load values are used to represent demand which is assumed to be completely inelastic. Supply i...

  13. 9 CFR 149.4 - Spot audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot audit. 149.4 Section 149.4... LIVESTOCK IMPROVEMENT VOLUNTARY TRICHINAE CERTIFICATION PROGRAM § 149.4 Spot audit. (a) In addition to regularly scheduled site audits, certified production sites will be subject to spot audits. (1) Random spot...

  14. A green certificate market combined with a liberalised power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    The development of renewable energy sources is expected to play an important role in the implementation of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets in the EU member states. Among the highly relevant instruments for promoting the renewable development is the establishment of a market for tradable green certificates (TGCs) and markets based on TGCs or equivalent instruments are already established a number of places, among these Australia, Holland, England, Italy and Texas. Other countries are in the preparation phase. Sweden and Belgium (Flanders) are moving fast towards certificate-schemes, while although an early mover the Danish Parliament has postponed the introduction in Denmark until 2004-2005. The initiatives for establishing national TGC-markets are very much in line with the fixed targets for renewable development launched by the EU-commission. Thus, although the different countries have not chosen the same concept for establishing national TGC-markets, nevertheless there seems to be a good starting point for establishing an international one. This paper discusses the separate introduction of an international tradable green certificate market into a liberalised power market, especially in relation to cost-effectiveness and the possible contributions to national GHG-reduction strategies. The combination of a TGC and a liberalised power market encounters a number of problems in relation to achieving national GHG-reduction targets. One of the main results from a three-country case study described in the paper is that those countries most ambitious in renewable target setting by increasing their TGC-quotas will only partly be gaining the CO 2 -reduction benefits themselves. How large a share they gain themselves will depend only on the marginal conditions at the spot market

  15. Modelling of hydro and wind power in the regulation market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiviluoma, J.; Holttinen, H.; Meibom, P.

    2006-01-01

    The amount of required regulation capacity in the power system is affected by the wind power prediction errors. A model has been developed which can evaluate the monetary effects of prediction errors. The model can be used to evaluate (1) the regulation costs of wind power, (2) regulation market prices including effects related to the participation of power producers in the regulating power market, (3) value of accurate wind forecasts and (4) the effect of decreasing the length of the spot market clearance. This article discusses the problems related to developing a realistic model of the regulating power market including the interaction between the spot market and the regulating power market. There are several issues that make things complicated. (1) How to calculate the minimum amount of needed secondary (minute) reserves. Traditionally the Nordic TSOs have used an N-1 criteria in each country to determine the required amounts of positive secondary reserve, but as installed wind power capacity grows, it will become relevant to include the wind power prediction errors in the estimation of secondary reserves. (2) Consumption forecast errors and plant outages also contribute to activation of regulating power and should have stochastic input series besides wind power. (3) Risk premiums and transaction costs in the regulating power market are difficult to estimate as well as the effects of the possible use of market power. This is especially true in the Nordic system with the high share of hydro power, since the water value and hydrological limitations make things more complex than in a thermal system. (4) The available regulation capacity is not necessarily equal to the truly available capacity. All producers don't participate in the regulation market although in principle they could. (orig.)

  16. Industrial robots in Europe - market, applications and developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schraft, R. D.

    1975-01-01

    Different companies involving a wide range of products and manufacturing processes were studied to define the requirements for industrial robots. A survey of all such automatic units offered on the world market was made to establish a data base. Principal applications include coating, spot welding, and loading and unloading operations.

  17. The impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.

    2017-09-01

    The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.

  18. Spot formation of radiation particles by electrochemical etching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nozaki, Tetsuya

    1999-01-01

    An electrochemical etching (ECE) spot formation from the top of chemical etching (CE) spot was confirmed by a series of experiments. One of polycarbonate (Iupilon) could not make the spot, because ECE spot had grown up before the microscope confirming the CE spot. Clear CEC spots by α-ray and neutron were found on Harzlas and Baryotrak, both improvements of CR-39. Under the same etching conditions, the growth of ECE spot on Harzlas was more rapid than Baryotrak, but both spots were almost the same. All CE spot by α-ray produced the CEC spots, but a part of CE circle spot by neutron formed them. (S.Y.)

  19. Facilitators and impediments in the adoption and implementation of the HubSpot marketing automation system

    OpenAIRE

    Leinonen, Miira

    2017-01-01

    Marketing automation is growing popularity among companies but it has not yet received great academic interest. Therefore, neither marketing automation systems have been studied thoroughly. Other preceding systems in marketing and sales, such as customer relationship management (CRM) and sales force automation (SFA) have however been explored comprehensively. The goal of this research is to increase the understanding of successful adoption and implementation of a marketing automation syst...

  20. Managing emerging threats to spotted owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho Yi Wan; Joseph L. Ganey; Christina D. Vojta; Samuel A. Cushman

    2018-01-01

    The 3 spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) subspecies in North America (i.e., northern spotted owl [S. o. caurina], California spotted owl [S. o. occidentalis], Mexican spotted owl [S. o. lucida]) have all experienced population declines over the past century due to habitat loss and fragmentation from logging. Now, the emerging influences of climate change, high-severity...

  1. Computational Prediction of Hot Spot Residues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, John Kenneth; Zhang, Shuxing

    2013-01-01

    Most biological processes involve multiple proteins interacting with each other. It has been recently discovered that certain residues in these protein-protein interactions, which are called hot spots, contribute more significantly to binding affinity than others. Hot spot residues have unique and diverse energetic properties that make them challenging yet important targets in the modulation of protein-protein complexes. Design of therapeutic agents that interact with hot spot residues has proven to be a valid methodology in disrupting unwanted protein-protein interactions. Using biological methods to determine which residues are hot spots can be costly and time consuming. Recent advances in computational approaches to predict hot spots have incorporated a myriad of features, and have shown increasing predictive successes. Here we review the state of knowledge around protein-protein interactions, hot spots, and give an overview of multiple in silico prediction techniques of hot spot residues. PMID:22316154

  2. A review of efforts to restructure Texas' electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarnikau, Jay

    2005-01-01

    Comparisons suggest that Texas has been relatively successful in its efforts to introduce greater competition and customer choice into its unique electricity market (Center for Advancement of Electricity Markets, 2002). Yet, Texas has defied many of the common prescriptions in designing its market. Texas has yet to establish a nodal congestion management system that directly assigns local congestion costs to entities responsible for creating transmission congestion. A liquid power exchange or spot market is absent. Programs designed to encourage demand side responsiveness had a slow start. Market concentration remains high. Market oversight activities are poorly funded. A generation adequacy mechanism or planning reserve margin requirement remains under debate. Has Texas simply been lucky in averting any real disasters? Or are these market features less important than commonly recognized? This article reviews the restructuring initiative and reports some key lessons learned following the first twenty months under the new wholesale market structure and fifteen months of retail competition

  3. A review of efforts to restructure Texas' electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarnikau, J.

    2005-01-01

    Comparisons suggest that Texas has been relatively successful in its efforts to introduce greater competition and customer choice into its unique electricity market (Center for Advancement of Electricity Markets, 2002). Yet, Texas has defied many of the common prescriptions in designing its market. Texas has yet to establish a nodal congestion management system that directly assigns local congestion costs to entities responsible for creating transmission congestion. A liquid power exchange or spot market is absent. Programs designed to encourage demand side responsiveness had a slow start. Market concentration remains high. Market oversight activities are poorly funded. A generation adequacy mechanism or planning reserve margin requirement remains under debate. Has Texas simply been lucky in averting any real disasters? Or are these market features less important than commonly recognized? This article reviews the restructuring initiative and reports some key lessons learned following the first twenty months under the new wholesale market structure and fifteen months of retail competition. (author)

  4. Poisson Spot with Magnetic Levitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Matthew; Everhart, Michael; D'Arruda, Jose

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we describe a unique method for obtaining the famous Poisson spot without adding obstacles to the light path, which could interfere with the effect. A Poisson spot is the interference effect from parallel rays of light diffracting around a solid spherical object, creating a bright spot in the center of the shadow.

  5. Time Resolved X-Ray Spot Size Diagnostic

    CERN Document Server

    Richardson, Roger; Falabella, Steven; Guethlein, Gary; Raymond, Brett; Weir, John

    2005-01-01

    A diagnostic was developed for the determination of temporal history of an X-ray spot. A pair of thin (0.5 mm) slits image the x-ray spot to a fast scintillator which is coupled to a fast detector, thus sampling a slice of the X-Ray spot. Two other scintillator/detectors are used to determine the position of the spot and total forward dose. The slit signal is normalized to the dose and the resulting signal is analyzed to get the spot size. The position information is used to compensate for small changes due to spot motion and misalignment. The time resolution of the diagnostic is about 1 ns and measures spots from 0.5 mm to over 3 mm. The theory and equations used to calculate spot size and position are presented, as well as data. The calculations assume a symmetric, Gaussian spot. The spot data is generated by the ETA II accelerator, a 2kA, 5.5 MeV, 60ns electron beam focused on a Tantalum target. The spot generated is typically about 1 mm FWHM. Comparisons are made to an X-ray pinhole camera which images th...

  6. The Pacific coal market for 1999: it`s negotiation time again

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-10-01

    The annual Australia-Japan Coal Conference signals the beginning of the negotiations between Asia`s coal buyers and suppliers. Drastic cuts are expected to existing contract pricing. The article discusses the present spot market. 1 tab., 3 photos.

  7. Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnstable, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap

  8. Statistical hot spot analysis of reactor cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaefer, H.

    1974-05-01

    This report is an introduction into statistical hot spot analysis. After the definition of the term 'hot spot' a statistical analysis is outlined. The mathematical method is presented, especially the formula concerning the probability of no hot spots in a reactor core is evaluated. A discussion with the boundary conditions of a statistical hot spot analysis is given (technological limits, nominal situation, uncertainties). The application of the hot spot analysis to the linear power of pellets and the temperature rise in cooling channels is demonstrated with respect to the test zone of KNK II. Basic values, such as probability of no hot spots, hot spot potential, expected hot spot diagram and cumulative distribution function of hot spots, are discussed. It is shown, that the risk of hot channels can be dispersed equally over all subassemblies by an adequate choice of the nominal temperature distribution in the core

  9. A New Approach to Solving the Colonial Monetary Puzzle: Evidence from New Jersey, 1709-1775

    OpenAIRE

    Farley Grubb

    2014-01-01

    The market value of colonial New Jersey's paper money is decomposed into its real asset present value and its liquidity premium. Its real asset present value accounted for over 80 percent, whereas its value as money per se accounted for under 20, percent of its market value. Colonial paper money was not a fiat currency. Its liquidity premium was driven by the quantity of paper money in circulation and the method of injection. The quantity theory of money performs poorly when using prices and ...

  10. Gas pricing in Europe. Pt. 1. Wholesale markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donath, R.

    1996-01-01

    The article investigates gas pricing in the European procurement market and the wholesale markets of the most important EU consumer markets. It demonstrates that value-oriented pricing principles override cost-oriented pricing principles. For one thing, and independently of pricing principles, two- or three-part demand price systems or basic price systems are common. For another, the frequently encountered opportunities for the differentiation of prices show that as long as there is merely substitution competition instead of direct competition, gas suppliers have a certain degree of freedom in fixing their prices. By contrast, the introduction of direct competition in Great Britain has reduced suppliers' individual price fixing margins, because short-term supply and demand variations in the now created spot market are decisive for gas pricing. (orig.) [de

  11. NordREG report on the price peaks in the Nordic wholesale market during winter 2009-2010. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-01-15

    In winter 2009-2010, prices peaked on three days. The high prices that were experienced in the majority of the Nord Pool Spot price areas initiated a study on the reasons that led to the price spikes and on the possible measures to develop the Nordic market arrangements to avoid such situations in the future. The analysis of the winter 2009-2010 events revealed that there were a number of primary causes for the occurrence of the price peaks and no single individual cause could be pinpointed to bear the key responsibility. The fact that the weather was cold all over the Nordic area in conjunction with the low availability for the Swedish nuclear generation capacity, however, could be indicated as the key underlying causes. The analysis also showed that the way the Nordic transmission capacity is allocated can be listed as an additional factor complementing to the occurrence of the price peaks. Thus, NordREG concluded that a review of the methods of calculating and allocating transmission capacity for the market should be carried out. As a part of this, an analysis that addresses the delimitation of bidding areas and maintenance planning of the transmission network infrastructure should be prepared as well. The flexibility on the demand side has not been very large in the Nordic region. However, the background study prepared by Gaia Consulting showed that even small degree of increased price elasticity could substantially cut the price peaks. This could be seen as an improvement potential of the trading system reflecting the present inability of the market participants to react on the price signals the market place provides. Therefore, NordREG sees that facilitating the appearance of a real price elastic behaviour of the users of electricity can be regarded as one of the key fixes for the problem. Furthermore, NordREG proposes that a consultancy study on how to promote demand flexibility in the Nordic market in a coherent way should be prepared. A further area for

  12. Hot Spot Removal System: System description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    Hazardous wastes contaminated with radionuclides, chemicals, and explosives exist across the Department of Energy complex and need to be remediated due to environmental concerns. Currently, an opportunity is being developed to dramatically reduce remediation costs and to assist in the acceleration of schedules associated with these wastes by deploying a Hot Spot Removal System. Removing the hot spot from the waste site will remove risk driver(s) and enable another, more cost effective process/option/remedial alternative (i.e., capping) to be applied to the remainder of the site. The Hot Spot Removal System consists of a suite of technologies that will be utilized to locate and remove source terms. Components of the system can also be used in a variety of other cleanup activities. This Hot Spot Removal System Description document presents technologies that were considered for possible inclusion in the Hot Spot Removal System, technologies made available to the Hot Spot Removal System, industrial interest in the Hot Spot Removal System`s subsystems, the schedule required for the Hot Spot Removal System, the evaluation of the relevant technologies, and the recommendations for equipment and technologies as stated in the Plan section.

  13. Hot Spot Removal System: System description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-09-01

    Hazardous wastes contaminated with radionuclides, chemicals, and explosives exist across the Department of Energy complex and need to be remediated due to environmental concerns. Currently, an opportunity is being developed to dramatically reduce remediation costs and to assist in the acceleration of schedules associated with these wastes by deploying a Hot Spot Removal System. Removing the hot spot from the waste site will remove risk driver(s) and enable another, more cost effective process/option/remedial alternative (i.e., capping) to be applied to the remainder of the site. The Hot Spot Removal System consists of a suite of technologies that will be utilized to locate and remove source terms. Components of the system can also be used in a variety of other cleanup activities. This Hot Spot Removal System Description document presents technologies that were considered for possible inclusion in the Hot Spot Removal System, technologies made available to the Hot Spot Removal System, industrial interest in the Hot Spot Removal System''s subsystems, the schedule required for the Hot Spot Removal System, the evaluation of the relevant technologies, and the recommendations for equipment and technologies as stated in the Plan section

  14. Risk management solutions for the new energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saba, A.

    2001-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is one of five successor companies of former Ontario Hydro. With a current capacity of more than 30,000 MW, OPG is the fourth largest power generator in North America. Its generation mix includes 50 per cent nuclear with the balance being between fossil fuel and hydro energy. This power point presentation discussed the role of OPG in Ontario's new deregulated market place. The market is immature and new billing schemes are in the process of being introduced. This presentation discussed hourly market clearing price (spot market) and the need for hourly data, or interval meters. Issues regarding increased price volatility, load variability and how consumers can avoid high prices through load control were also discussed. In Ontario's new market place, the purchasing options for electric power include the wholesale market participant, retailers of electricity, retail participants, default supply and self generation. A brief review of each of these procurement options was included with this presentation. tabs., figs

  15. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... with facebook share with twitter share with linkedin Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Credit: CDC A male cayenne tick, Amblyomma cajennense, ... and New Mexico. Why Is the Study of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever a Priority for NIAID? Tickborne diseases are becoming ...

  16. Comparison of power exchanges. Liquidity and prices in spot transactions; Stromboersen im Vergleich. Liquiditaet und Preise im Spothandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, Manuel

    2012-07-01

    The liberalization of the world's electricity markets in the past 20 years provided new challenges for operators of power distribution systems as well as producers: Especially in Europe, the integration of renewable energy sources is another challenge. The increasing importance of wind energy, solar energy and hydro power as a CO{sub 2} free energy source raises the question which market design is the best for the description of the constant fluctuations of these energy sources. As a result of liberalization, two market models are distinguished: the stock market model and the pool model. The author of the contribution under consideration analyzes empirically the power exchanges EEX (European energy Exchange, Leipzig, Federal Republic of Germany), Nordpool (Lysaker, Norway) and PJM (Norristown, Pennsylvania, USA). The parameters are determined which significantly affect the prices and the liquidity in the spot market.

  17. Laser Pyrometer For Spot Temperature Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elleman, D. D.; Allen, J. L.; Lee, M. C.

    1988-01-01

    Laser pyrometer makes temperature map by scanning measuring spot across target. Scanning laser pyrometer passively measures radiation emitted by scanned spot on target and calibrated by similar passive measurement on blackbody of known temperature. Laser beam turned on for active measurements of reflectances of target spot and reflectance standard. From measurements, temperature of target spot inferred. Pyrometer useful for non-contact measurement of temperature distributions in processing of materials.

  18. Resistance Spot Welding of dissimilar Steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladislav Kolařík

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the properties of resistance spot welds between low carbon steel and austenitic CrNi stainless steel. The thickness of the welded dissimilar materials was 2 mm. A DeltaSpot welding gun with a process tape was used for welding the dissimilar steels. Resistance spot welds were produced with various welding parameters (welding currents ranging from 7 to 8 kA. Light microscopy, microhardness measurements across the welded joints, and EDX analysis were used to evaluate the quality of the resistance spot welds. The results confirm the applicability of DeltaSpot welding for this combination of materials.

  19. The dynamics of risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mork, E. [Consultant, Oslo (Norway)

    2006-04-15

    Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and

  20. On the relationships between electron spot size, focal spot size, and virtual source position in Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterpin, E.; Chen, Y.; Lu, W.; Mackie, T. R.; Olivera, G. H.; Vynckier, S.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Every year, new radiotherapy techniques including stereotactic radiosurgery using linear accelerators give rise to new applications of Monte Carlo (MC) modeling. Accurate modeling requires knowing the size of the electron spot, one of the few parameters to tune in MC models. The resolution of integrated megavoltage imaging systems, such as the tomotherapy system, strongly depends on the photon spot size which is closely related to the electron spot. The aim of this article is to clarify the relationship between the electron spot size and the photon spot size (i.e., the focal spot size) for typical incident electron beam energies and target thicknesses. Methods: Three electron energies (3, 5.5, and 18 MeV), four electron spot sizes (FWHM=0, 0.5, 1, and 1.5 mm), and two tungsten target thicknesses (0.15 and 1 cm) were considered. The formation of the photon beam within the target was analyzed through electron energy deposition with depth, as well as photon production at several phase-space planes placed perpendicular to the beam axis, where only photons recorded for the first time were accounted for. Photon production was considered for ''newborn'' photons intersecting a 45x45 cm 2 plane at the isocenter (85 cm from source). Finally, virtual source position and ''effective'' focal spot size were computed by backprojecting all the photons from the bottom of the target intersecting a 45x45 cm 2 plane. The virtual source position and focal spot size were estimated at the plane position where the latter is minimal. Results: In the relevant case of considering only photons intersecting the 45x45 cm 2 plane, the results unambiguously showed that the effective photon spot is created within the first 0.25 mm of the target and that electron and focal spots may be assumed to be equal within 3-4%. Conclusions: In a good approximation photon spot size equals electron spot size for high energy X-ray treatments delivered by linear accelerators.

  1. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  2. Stochastic Modeling of Wind Derivatives in Energy Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Espen Benth

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We model the logarithm of the spot price of electricity with a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG process and the wind speed and wind power production with two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. In order to reproduce the correlation between the spot price and the wind power production, namely between a pure jump process and a continuous path process, respectively, we replace the small jumps of the NIG process by a Brownian term. We then apply our models to two different problems: first, to study from the stochastic point of view the income from a wind power plant, as the expected value of the product between the electricity spot price and the amount of energy produced; then, to construct and price a European put-type quanto option in the wind energy markets that allows the buyer to hedge against low prices and low wind power production in the plant. Calibration of the proposed models and related price formulas is also provided, according to specific datasets.

  3. Solar 'hot spots' are still hot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Taeil

    1990-01-01

    Longitude distributions of solar flares are not random but show evidence for active zones (or hot spots) where flares are concentrated. According to a previous study, two hot spots in the northern hemisphere, which rotate with a synodic period of about 26.72 days, produced the majority of major flares, during solar cycles 20 and 21. The more prominent of these two hot spots is found to be still active during the rising part of cycle 22, producing the majority of northern hemisphere major flares. The synodic rotation period of this hot spot is 26.727 + or - 0.007 days. There is also evidence for hot spots in the southern hemisphere. Two hot spots separated by 180 deg are found to rotate with a period of 29.407 days, with one of them having persisted in the same locations during cycles 19-22 and the other, during cycles 20-22.

  4. Locational marginal prices with SVC in Indian electricity market ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spot pricing based on short run marginal cost (SRMC) theory has the potential to provide the economic signals for the power system operation. Reactive power has gained importance as an ancillary service in competitive markets and its impact on nodal price can not be ignored. With the emergence of FACTS technology, ...

  5. Arc cathode spots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrade, H.O.

    1989-01-01

    Arc spots are usually highly unstable and jump statistically over the cathode surface. In a magnetic field parallel to the surface, preferably they move in the retrograde direction; i.e., opposite to the Lorentzian rule. If the field is inclined with respect to the surface, the spots drift away at a certain angle with respect to the proper retrograde direction (Robson drift motion). These well-known phenomena are explained by one stability theory

  6. 7 CFR 28.413 - Middling Light Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Middling Light Spotted Color. 28.413 Section 28.413... Spotted Color. Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or color, or both, is between Middling Color and Middling Spotted Color. ...

  7. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  8. World oil and gas markets in 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In front of insufficient production capacities, the petroleum and gas spot prices have won historical records in 2005. This paper analyzes this situation using the highlights of this exceptional year and concerning the producing countries (political situation), the oil and gas markets (exchange rates, demand, production capacity), the European quotations of petroleum products (automotive and domestic fuels), and the prices of petroleum products in France. (J.S.)

  9. Solar hot spots are still hot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, T.

    1990-01-01

    Longitude distributions of solar flares are not random but show evidence for active zones (or hot spots) where flares are concentrated. According to a previous study, two hot spots in the northern hemisphere, which rotate with a synodic period of about 26.72 days, produced the majority of major flares, during solar cycles 20 and 21. The more prominent of these two hot spots is found to be still active during the rising part of cycle 22, producing the majority of northern hemisphere major flares. The synodic rotation period of this hot spot is 26.727 + or - 0.007 days. There is also evidence for hot spots in the southern hemisphere. Two hot spots separated by 180 deg are found to rotate with a period of 29.407 days, with one of them having persisted in the same locations during cycles 19-22 and the other, during cycles 20-22. 14 refs

  10. Competitive electricity markets: One size should fit all

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruff, L.E.

    1999-01-01

    Various market models have been used to try to create competition in the electricity industry in various parts of the world, with varying degrees of success. But every electricity market that has produced reasonably effective and efficient competition has been based on some version of the same generic model. And most of the problems encountered by these markets--apart from problems due to structural flaws such as too few competitors--can be attributed to inconsistent or incomplete application of this basic model concept. In this sense, one size of market model really does fit all--or at least one size should fit all if the objective is to create effective and efficient competition for the benefit of consumers. Effort to slow or reverse the movement to an open spot market integrated with physical dispatch will create complexities and inefficiencies that benefit oligopolists and middlemen at the expense of smaller producers and final consumers

  11. Competitive electricity markets: One size should fit all

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruff, L.E.

    1999-11-01

    Various market models have been used to try to create competition in the electricity industry in various parts of the world, with varying degrees of success. But every electricity market that has produced reasonably effective and efficient competition has been based on some version of the same generic model. And most of the problems encountered by these markets--apart from problems due to structural flaws such as too few competitors--can be attributed to inconsistent or incomplete application of this basic model concept. In this sense, one size of market model really does fit all--or at least one size should fit all if the objective is to create effective and efficient competition for the benefit of consumers. Effort to slow or reverse the movement to an open spot market integrated with physical dispatch will create complexities and inefficiencies that benefit oligopolists and middlemen at the expense of smaller producers and final consumers.

  12. Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...

  13. 7 CFR 28.423 - Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Middling Spotted Color. 28.423 Section 28.423... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSING, TESTING, AND STANDARDS Standards Spotted Cotton § 28.423 Middling Spotted Color. Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in the custody of...

  14. LPG markets face upheaval as buyers press for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Paul

    1999-01-01

    This article focuses on the system used for selling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) where the sellers set the market price with Saudi Arabia dominating the market. The introduction and acceptance of a new method for setting the export price in relation to the spot price, the production of more LPG for export than forecast, the impact on the Saudi Arabian methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) industry of California's banning MTBE additives to petrol,and the possibility of Asian buyers renegotiating the supply agreements are discussed. Details of Saudi Arabia's petrochemical plants planning to use LPG and world LPG production for 1998 are tabulated. The US market, and new systems for trading and pricing are considered. (UK)

  15. Reforming minute reserve policy in Germany. A step towards efficient markets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rammerstorfer, Margarethe; Wagner, Christian

    2009-01-01

    The present paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects associated with the reorganization of minute reserve markets in Germany. As the aim of the regulator is to assure a competitive market with transparent pricing, we analyze whether the recent policy reform has had an impact on the dynamics of minute reserve prices. Our results show that the level and volatility of positive and negative minute reserve prices decreased substantially. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the degree of integration between reserve and spot markets has increased. Overall, prices reacted to the policy change in a manner that is in line with the regulator's objective. The reform can thus be viewed as a step towards an efficient reserve market. (author)

  16. Improved simulation method of automotive spot weld failure with an account of the mechanical properties of spot welds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, H.; Meng, X. M.; Fang, R.; Huang, Y. F.; Zhan, S.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, the microstructure and mechanical properties of spot weld were studied, the hardness of nugget and heat affected zone (HAZ) were also tested by metallographic microscope and microhardness tester. The strength of the spot weld with the different parts' area has been characterized. According to the experiments result, CAE model of spot weld with HAZ structure was established, and simulation results of different lap-shear CAE models were analyzed. The results show that the spot weld model which contained the HAZ has good performance and more suitable for engineering application in spot weld simulation.

  17. Optimal Operation of Electric Vehicles in Competitive Electricity Markets and Its Impact on Distribution Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2011-01-01

    represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. The impact of the optimal operation strategy for electric vehicles together with the optimal load response to spot market price on the distribution power system with high wind power penetrations...... are also discussed in the paper. Simulation results show that the proposed optimal operation strategy is an effective measure to achieve minimum energy costs of the PEV. The optimal operation strategy of the PEV and the optimal load response may have significant effects on the distribution power system......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the electricity price could be transferred to the consumers and they may make some optimal charge and discharge schedules for their electric vehicles in order to minimize their energy costs. This paper presents an optimal...

  18. TV spots' impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-bakly, S

    1994-09-01

    The Information, Education and Communication (IEC) Center of the State Information Service was established in 1979 for the purpose of providing information to the people on the population issue. The Ministry of Information has accorded the State Information Service free TV and radio air time for family planning dramas and spots. In the early years information campaigns were organized to make people aware of the population problem by slogans, songs, and cartoons. Around 1984 misconceptions about family planning and contraceptives were attacked through a number of TV and radio spots. A few years later 21 spots on specific contraceptive methods were broadcast which were aired for three years over 3000 times. They were extremely successful. The impact of these TV spots was one of the major reasons why the contraceptive prevalence rate increased from 30% in 1984 to 38% in 1988 and 47% in 1992. Spots were also broadcast about the social implications of large families. The TV soap opera "And The Nile Flows On", with the family planning message interwoven into it, was very well received by the target audience. A program entitled "Wedding of the Month" features couples who know family planning well. The most successful radio program is a 15-20 minute long quiz show for residents of the villages where the Select Villages Project is being implemented. The State Information Service has 60 local information centers in the 26 governorates of Egypt that make plans for the family planning campaign. In 1992 the Minya Initiative, a family planning project was implemented in the Minya Governorate. As a result, the contraceptive prevalence rate rose from 22% to 30% over 18 months. A new project, the Select Village Project, was developed in 1993 that replicates the Minya Initiative on the village level in other governorates. This new project that was implemented in sixteen governorates.

  19. Black-spot poison ivy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schram, Sarah E; Willey, Andrea; Lee, Peter K; Bohjanen, Kimberly A; Warshaw, Erin M

    2008-01-01

    In black-spot poison ivy dermatitis, a black lacquerlike substance forms on the skin when poison ivy resin is exposed to air. Although the Toxicodendron group of plants is estimated to be the most common cause of allergic contact dermatitis in the United States, black-spot poison ivy dermatitis is relatively rare.

  20. Impact and return on investment of online marketing strategies for small and medium enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Stepien, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Internet has opened many opportunities for businesses. Indeed, it let them sell their products without a physical store and market their brand image faster than ever. The science of being visible online is called online marketing and it evolves every day. It is interesting to know that these strategies are less expensive than the traditional ways of marketing such as TV spots or magazines advertisement. It makes it perfect for small and medium enterprises which are limited in term of capital....

  1. Computational prediction of protein hot spot residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, John Kenneth; Zhang, Shuxing

    2012-01-01

    Most biological processes involve multiple proteins interacting with each other. It has been recently discovered that certain residues in these protein-protein interactions, which are called hot spots, contribute more significantly to binding affinity than others. Hot spot residues have unique and diverse energetic properties that make them challenging yet important targets in the modulation of protein-protein complexes. Design of therapeutic agents that interact with hot spot residues has proven to be a valid methodology in disrupting unwanted protein-protein interactions. Using biological methods to determine which residues are hot spots can be costly and time consuming. Recent advances in computational approaches to predict hot spots have incorporated a myriad of features, and have shown increasing predictive successes. Here we review the state of knowledge around protein-protein interactions, hot spots, and give an overview of multiple in silico prediction techniques of hot spot residues.

  2. Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamagami, Tomoki

    Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

  3. Price Formation and Competition in the Swedish Electricity Market. Main findings of ER 2006:13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-11-01

    The Nordic electricity market can be divided into a Nordic wholesale market - the producer market - and the, national, retail markets. Nord Pool organises a 24-hour market for the physical trade of electricity, the spot market. Nord Pool also has a market place for so-called financial trade where players can (among other things) hedge themselves against price risks. Thus, the trade at Nord Pool represents the basis for trading with electricity throughout the entire Nordic market. In addition to the trade at Nord Pool, there is also bilateral trading between buyers and sellers. The report has been arranged as follows. Initially the functioning of the wholesale market is analysed, the issues addressed include the price formation in the spot market, the functioning of the financial market, as well as the price development in the spot market. The section ends with an analysis of the competitive situation in the Nordic wholesale market with a focus on Sweden. The next section focuses on how a potential introduction of Elspot areas in Sweden might affect the conditions for competition. The third section looks at certain conditions in the Swedish retail market and on certain consequences for households and electricity-intensive industry due to the price increases in recent years. The report concludes with the Energy Markets Inspectorate's deliberations on the need for measures to be undertaken in the Swedish and Nordic electricity market. The concentration on the Nordic electricity market is at a level where the authorities monitoring competition need to counteract changes that lead to further concentration. The present structure of the market, with an increasingly high concentration and co-ownership of power stations, also places demands on the authorities responsible for monitoring competition to implement measures designed to detect and to prevent the possible abuse of market power. There is a substantial need for research on competition and efficiency on the

  4. 7 CFR 1421.11 - Spot checks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot checks. 1421.11 Section 1421.11 Agriculture... ASSISTANCE LOANS AND LOAN DEFICIENCY PAYMENTS FOR 2008 THROUGH 2012 General § 1421.11 Spot checks. (a) CCC... CCC access to the farm and storage facility as necessary to conduct collateral inspections, or “spot...

  5. 21 CFR 886.1435 - Maxwell spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Maxwell spot. 886.1435 Section 886.1435 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES OPHTHALMIC DEVICES Diagnostic Devices § 886.1435 Maxwell spot. (a) Identification. A Maxwell spot is an AC...

  6. May market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Seven uranium transactions totalling nearly three million pounds equivalent U3O8 were reported during May, but only two, totalling less than 200 thousand pounds equivalent U3O8, involved concentrates. As no discretionary buying occurred during the month, and as near-term supply and demand were in relative balance, prices were steady, while both buyers and sellers appeared to be awaiting some new market development to signal the direction of future spot-market prices. The May 31, 1993, Exchange Value and the Restricted American market Penalty (RAMP) for concentrates were both unchanged at $7.10, and $2.95 per pound U3O8, respectively. NUEXCO's judgement was that transactions for significant quantities of uranium concentrates that were both deliverable in and intended for consumption in the USA could have been concluded on May 31 at $10.05 per pound U3O8. Two near-term concentrate transactions were reported in which one US utility purchased less than 200 thousand pounds equivalent U3O8 from two separate sellers. These sales occurred at price levels at or near the May 31 Exchange Value plus RAMP. No long-term uranium transactions were reported during May. Consequently, the UF6 Value decreased $0.20 to $24.30 per kgU as UF6, reflecting some weakening of the UF6 market outside the USA

  7. Energy market and investment - political economy of supply security in the market of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leban, R.

    2005-01-01

    A market structure that appears to be adapted to achieving a supply security purpose in the sectors of oil power and gas, is an organisation where upstream energy markets include industrial players of adequate sizes involved downstream and where futures exchanges prevail at prices translating anticipations on 'basics' since spot markets are more of adjustment markets. Policy weighs hugely on those markets. The extra competition lately instilled in the electrical and gas markets in developed countries results in no decrease, as complicated exchange rules need to be thought up and the market power needs to be monitored. Political intervention is also carried out in the name of environmental policies, in a strong interaction with the operation of the said markets and therefore with a not insignificant risk of disruption. The oil market is a highly political one, since the key to exchanges, i.e. access to primary resources, is played between producing countries and huge oil and gas companies close to consuming countries. There is a strong temptation in the electrical sector, to add security policies in order to prevail over the market. Gas, which is oil upstream and electrical downstream, requires, in consuming countries, a delicate balance of policies to support operators as buyers and to control the same operators as players of the gas- gas competition. The prognosis on the market's ability to provide safe supply efficiently to citizens if security policies are implemented is rather good in areas where demand is moderately growing and networks are developed. It is however not as good in areas where there are high needs for production and transport investments, i.e. in countries that are developing now, and will be...in Europe soon. (author)

  8. Newborn screening blood spot analysis in the UK: influence of spot size, punch location and haematocrit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, A J; Bernstone, L; Hall, S K

    2016-03-01

    In dried blood spot analysis, punch location and variations in applied sample volume and haematocrit can produce different measured concentrations of analytes. We investigated the magnitude of these effects in newborn screening in the UK. Heparinized blood spiked with thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), phenylalanine, tyrosine, leucine, methionine, octanoyl carnitine (C8), and immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT) was spotted onto filter paper: (i) at a constant haematocrit of 50% at various volumes, and (ii) at a range of haematocrits using a constant volume. Subpunches (3.2 mm) of the dried blood spots were then analysed. Compared with a central punch from a 50 µL blood spot with 50% haematocrit, 10 µL spots can have significantly lower measured concentrations of all analytes, with decreases of 15% or more observed for leucine, methionine, phenylalanine, and tyrosine. Punching at the edge of a spot can increase measured concentrations up to 35%. Higher haematocrit decreased measured TSH and C8 yet increased amino acids and IRT by 15% compared with 50% haematocrit. Lower haematocrits had the opposite effect, but only with higher concentrations of some analytes. Differences in blood spot size, haematocrit and punch location substantially affect measured concentrations for analytes used in the UK newborn screening programme, and this could affect false positive and negative rates. To minimize analytical bias, these variables should be controlled or adjusted for where possible. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contin-Pilart, Ignacio; Correlje, Aad F.; Blanca Palacios, M.

    2009-01-01

    The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990, the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that 'liberalization' was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. By 1998, prices were left to the 'free' market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results suggest that gasoline retail prices respond symmetrically to increases as well as to decreases in the spot price of gasoline both over the period of price regulation (January 1993-September 1998) and over the period of free market (October 1998-December 2004). However, once the ceiling price regulation was abolished, cooperation emerged between the government and the major operators, Repsol-YPF and Cepsa-Elf, to control the inflation rate. This resulted in a slower rate of adjustment of gasoline retail prices when gasoline spot prices went up, as compared with the European pattern. Finally, the Spanish retail margin was by the end of our timing period of analysis, as in the starting years after the abolishment of the state monopoly, above the European average. This pattern confirms our political economic hypothesis, which suggests that the Spanish government and the oil companies were working together in reducing the inflation, in periods of rising oil and gasoline prices. It is also inferred that explaining the pricing pattern in energy markets may require different hypothesis than the classical perspective, involving just firms taking advantage of market power

  10. Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contin-Pilart, Ignacio [Departamento de Gestion de Empresas, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona (Spain); Correlje, Aad F. [Section Economics of Infrastructures, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft (Netherlands); Clingendael International Energy Programme (Netherlands); Blanca Palacios, M. [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990, the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that 'liberalization' was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. By 1998, prices were left to the 'free' market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results suggest that gasoline retail prices respond symmetrically to increases as well as to decreases in the spot price of gasoline both over the period of price regulation (January 1993-September 1998) and over the period of free market (October 1998-December 2004). However, once the ceiling price regulation was abolished, cooperation emerged between the government and the major operators, Repsol-YPF and Cepsa-Elf, to control the inflation rate. This resulted in a slower rate of adjustment of gasoline retail prices when gasoline spot prices went up, as compared with the European pattern. Finally, the Spanish retail margin was by the end of our timing period of analysis, as in the starting years after the abolishment of the state monopoly, above the European average. This pattern confirms our political economic hypothesis, which suggests that the Spanish government and the oil companies were working together in reducing the inflation, in periods of rising oil and gasoline prices. It is also inferred that explaining the pricing pattern in energy markets may require different hypothesis than the classical perspective, involving just firms taking advantage of market power. (author)

  11. How does market power affect the impact of large scale wind investment in 'energy only' wholesale electricity markets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browne, Oliver; Poletti, Stephen; Young, David

    2015-01-01

    In the short run, it is well known that increasing wind penetration is likely to reduce spot market electricity prices due to the merit order effect. The long run effect is less clear because there will be a change in new capacity investment in response to the wind penetration. In this paper we examine the interaction between capacity investment, wind penetration and market power by first using a least-cost generation expansion model to simulate capacity investment with increasing amounts of wind generation, and then using a computer agent-based model to predict electricity prices in the presence of market power. We find the degree to which firms are able to exercise market power depends critically on the ratio of capacity to peak demand. For our preferred long run generation scenario we show market power increases for some periods as wind penetration increases however the merit order counteracts this with the results that prices overall remain flat. Returns to peakers increase significantly as wind penetration increases. The market power in turn leads to inefficient dispatch which is exacerbated with large amounts of wind generation. - Highlights: • Increasing investment in wind generation is analyzed using an agent based model. • In an energy only market, increased total capacity reduces market power. • Increasing wind penetration results in more market power in some periods. • Market power causes dispatch inefficiencies, which grow as wind capacity increases.

  12. Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts; CD-ROM ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gretener, N.M.

    1996-05-01

    A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller`s obligation to deliver, and the buyer`s obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller`s right to decontract.

  13. Advances in spot curing technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burga, R.

    1999-01-01

    A brief review of spot curing technology was presented. The process which a spot of energy of a specific wavelength bandwidth and irradiance is used to cause a coating, encapsulant or adhesive to change from a liquid to a solid state

  14. Gas Markets: Review of 2012 and medium term perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This series of slides present a review of the 2012 gas markets and of their medium term perspectives. A moderate gas activity is expected worldwide in the short-term (supply risks). The globalization process has been slowing down but a rebound in world gas and LNG demand is expected from the middle of this decade (+ 2.5%/year up to 2020). A new wave of projects and investments is required (40 Mt of new FIDs from non-US projects in the next two years, Market conditions will loosen after 2017). A more globalized and liquid gas market is much-needed by 2020. Oil indexing will be supported by Australian LNG projects and Asian prices will support high levels of European spot prices

  15. Use of derivative instruments to integrate renewable energies into the electricity market; Einsatz derivativer Instrumente zur Integration erneuerbarer Energien in den Strommarkt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartmann, Kilian [Hochschule Aschaffenburg (Germany). Fakultaet fuer Ingenieurwissenschaften; Nelles, Michael [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Agrar- und Umweltwissenschaftliche Fakultaet; Candra, Dodiek Ika

    2017-08-01

    The implementation of renewable energies to the electricity market is inefficient and expensive with current measures. Further these measures are prejudicial for the existing energy-only-market. The combination of fluctuating and controllable renewable powers in virtual power plants enables the marketing of this power as a derivate on the future market. Thus would relieve the spot market and stabilize pricing on both markets. Subsequently the renewable energy obligation will reduce and renewable energies could be marketed as secured power.

  16. Market Designs for High Levels of Variable Generation: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Kiviluoma, J.; Orths, A.; Lynch, M.; Soder, L.

    2014-10-01

    Variable renewable generation is increasing in penetration in modern power systems, leading to higher variability in the supply and price of electricity as well as lower average spot prices. This raises new challenges, particularly in ensuring sufficient capacity and flexibility from conventional technologies. Because the fixed costs and lifetimes of electricity generation investments are significant, designing markets and regulations that ensure the efficient integration of renewable generation is a significant challenge. This papers reviews the state of play of market designs for high levels of variable generation in the United States and Europe and considers new developments in both regions.

  17. How did China's foreign exchange reform affect the efficiency of foreign exchange market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Ye; Wang, Yiming; Su, Chi-wei

    2017-10-01

    This study compares the market efficiency of China's onshore and offshore foreign exchange markets before and after the foreign exchange reform on August 11, 2015. We use the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the onshore and offshore RMB/USD spot exchange rate series as basis. We then find that the onshore foreign exchange market before the reform has the lowest market efficiency, which increased after the reform. The offshore foreign exchange market before the reform has the highest market efficiency, which dropped after the reform. This finding implies the increased efficiency of the onshore foreign exchange market and the loss of efficiency in the offshore foreign exchange market. We also find that the offshore foreign exchange market is more efficient than the onshore market and that the gap shrank after the reform. Changes in intervention of the People's Bank of China since the reform is a possible explanation for the changes in the efficiency of the foreign exchange market.

  18. The fractal nature of vacuum arc cathode spots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, Andre

    2005-01-01

    Cathode spot phenomena show many features of fractals, for example self-similar patterns in the emitted light and arc erosion traces. Although there have been hints on the fractal nature of cathode spots in the literature, the fractal approach to spot interpretation is underutilized. In this work, a brief review of spot properties is given, touching the differences between spot type 1 (on cathodes surfaces with dielectric layers) and spot type 2 (on metallic, clean surfaces) as well as the known spot fragment or cell structure. The basic properties of self-similarity, power laws, random colored noise, and fractals are introduced. Several points of evidence for the fractal nature of spots are provided. Specifically power laws are identified as signature of fractal properties, such as spectral power of noisy arc parameters (ion current, arc voltage, etc) obtained by fast Fourier transform. It is shown that fractal properties can be observed down to the cutoff by measurement resolution or occurrence of elementary steps in physical processes. Random walk models of cathode spot motion are well established: they go asymptotically to Brownian motion for infinitesimal step width. The power spectrum of the arc voltage noise falls as 1/f 2 , where f is frequency, supporting a fractal spot model associated with Brownian motion

  19. The MiSPOT System: Personalized Publicity and Marketing over Interactive Digital TV

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Nores, Martín; Pazos-Arias, José Juan; Blanco-Fernández, Yolanda; García-Duque, Jorge; Tubío-Pardavila, Ricardo; Rey-López, Marta

    The development of Interactive Digital TV bears a great potential for electronic commerce, which remains heavily underexploited to date. The early initiatives to harness these technologies rely on the advertising techniques traditionally employed by the television industry, which have proven deficiencies related to viewers' comfort, locality and targeting. Furthermore, out of dedicated channels, there are very few attempts to provide interactive commercial functionalities through the TV, for example to sell products or to hire services. This chapter presents an overview of a system called MiSPOT that introduces solutions to these problems in two levels: (i) to advertise items that match the preferences and needs of the viewers, without interfering with their enjoyment of the TV programs; and (ii) to assemble specialized interactive applications that provide them with tailor-made commercial functionalities. These solutions are grounded on techniques from the Semantic Web, and are valid for both domestic TV receivers and mobile ones.

  20. Laser Spot Detection Based on Reaction Diffusion

    OpenAIRE

    Alejandro Vázquez-Otero; Danila Khikhlukha; J. M. Solano-Altamirano; Raquel Dormido; Natividad Duro

    2016-01-01

    Center-location of a laser spot is a problem of interest when the laser is used for processing and performing measurements. Measurement quality depends on correctly determining the location of the laser spot. Hence, improving and proposing algorithms for the correct location of the spots are fundamental issues in laser-based measurements. In this paper we introduce a Reaction Diffusion (RD) system as the main computational framework for robustly finding laser spot centers. The method presente...