WorldWideScience

Sample records for spot market price

  1. Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akinnusi, Ayo

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

  2. The spot market and the spot price: applicability and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, G. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The subject of spot prices and their relationship to long-term contracting is addressed. The author is associated with Nuexco, which originally was called the Nuclear Exchange Corporation. They use the term Exchange Value which originated in the idea that Nuexco operated an exchange 'bank' - those with too much uranium could 'bank it', those with short-term needs could borrow from the 'bank'. If the borrower repaid slightly more or less the difference was settled using the 'exchange value'. This became used for longer-term transactions and now settling the monthly value is an important part of Nuexco's activities. The exact nature of the Exchange Value is defined. Now more and more buyers are insisting on spot market related pricing even where this is not meaningfully related to uranium production costs. (U.K.)

  3. Production Contracts and the Spot Market Price of Hogs

    OpenAIRE

    Key, Nigel D.

    2010-01-01

    The increasing use of production contracts in the hog sector has reduced the number of spot market transactions, raised concerns about price manipulation and helped to spur legislation requiring price reporting by packers. Using data from the 2002 and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, this study looks for evidence of market manipulation by examining whether the local prevalence of contracting affects the average price received by independent producers. The empirical approach uses a fixed-effects ...

  4. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October's total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels

  5. Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

  6. Effects of series compensation on spot price power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, G.B.; Wang Feng

    2005-01-01

    The operation of a deregulated power market becomes more complex as the generation scheduling is dependent on suppliers' and consumers' bids. With large number of transactions in the power market changing in time, it is more likely for some transmission lines to face congestion. Series compensation, such as TCSC, with its ability to directly control the power flow can be very helpful to improve the operation of transmission networks. The effects of TCSC on the operation of a spot price power market are studied in this paper using the modified IEEE 14-bus system. Optimal Power Flow incorporating TCSC is used to implement the spot price market. Linear bids are used to model suppliers' and consumers' bids. Issues of location and cost of TCSC are discussed. The effects of levels of TCSC compensation on wide range of system quantities are studied. The effects on the total social benefit, the spot prices, transmission congestion, total generation and consumption, benefit to individual supplier and consumer etc. are discussed. It is demonstrated that though use of TCSC makes the system more efficient and augments competition in the market, it is not easy to establish general relationships between the levels of compensation and various market quantities. Simulation studies like these can be used to assess the effects of TCSC in specific systems. (Author)

  7. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  8. The 1995 uranium spot market: Rising volume - rising prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    1995 Uranium Spot Market volume increased by 7.8 million lbs U308 equivalent from 1994 levels to over 42.1 million lbs U308 equivalent the largest since 1991. This increased volume was accompanied by increased prices. The restricted market price rose by over $2.20/lb U308 from the January range of $9.75-$10.00 per lb U308 to the December range of $11.95-$12.25 per pound U308. The unrestricted market price rose by over $2.65/lb U308 from the January range of $7.15-$7.30 per lb U308 to the December range of $9.80-$10.15 per pound U308. Unrestricted prices rose at a relatively steady pace each month for the first half of the year and at a greater pace through the second half of the year, while restricted prices rose faster during the first half of the year and leveled out during the second half of the year. The result was a partial closure of the gap between restricted and unrestricted prices

  9. Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

  10. The 1996 uranium spot market: Low volume, prices spiral upward then downward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the 1996 uranium spot market is provided. The market was characterized by an overall decrease in uranium demand coupled with dramatically rising prices from January to July. Prices declined steadily during the second half of the year. Factors affecting price fall and historical spot market data are presented

  11. Price signals and investment incentives in wholesale electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilopoulos, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    We look at how prices from energy-only power markets can send the right signals and give the correct incentives for investments in production capacity. Through numerical simulations of spot prices over 2003-2005 we compare the investment signal sent by observed electricity prices in France and what would be competitive prices with an optimal mix and with the installed capacity. Observed prices tend to overestimate profitability for the base-load, making the signal too strong and underestimate profitability for the peak load, making the signal too weak. However, as a large share of consumers is still paying regulated tariffs, scarcity rents are capped. We simulate future prices for France for 2010 to 2020 to understand the incentives to invest. When the entry is free, the incentives to invest given by the future prices are consistent with the optimal mix including the interconnections and nuclear build is strong. With political or regulatory barriers to the construction of new power plants for new entrants (i.e. finding new sites), there are no incentives for the incumbent (that owns all existing base-load and peak load capacity) to add more nuclear capacity. In this situation, new entry would have to be coal or gas except if units are bid strategically to maintain profitability and market share. Moreover, it can also be profitable to limit prices and restrain entry in order to receive higher future revenues. When the base-load is less concentrated and instead of a dominant firm the nuclear capacity is divided into five (equal share) firms, the incentives to invest reappear and the threat of entry becomes more credible. (author) [fr

  12. Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid Nainar, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

  13. THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMRAH İSMAİL ÇEVİK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB. Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996 is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

  14. Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

  15. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  16. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

  17. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

  18. The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

  19. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  20. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

  1. 1997 begins quietly in the spot market as prices continue to drop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in January 1997 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  2. Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

  3. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  4. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

    1998-01-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  5. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lilleberg, J; Laitinen, E K [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  6. Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent advances in modeling causal flows with time series analysis are used to study relationships among eight North American natural gas spot market prices. Results indicate that the Canadian and US natural gas market is a single highly integrated market. Further results indicate that price discovery tends to reflect both regions of excess demand and supply. Across North America, Malin Hub in Oregon, Chicago Hub, Illinois, Waha, Texas, and Henry Hub, Louisiana region, are the most important markets for price discovery. Opal Hub in Wyoming is an information sink in contemporaneous time, receiving price information but passing on no price information. AECO Hub in Alberta, Canada, receives price signals from several markets and passes on information to Opal and the Oklahoma region. (author)

  7. Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

  8. High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, Nicholas J.; Boerema, Nicholas D.; MacGill, Iain F.; Outhred, Hugh R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations. - Highlights: → In South Australia (SA) wind generation is having an influence on market prices. → Little or no correlation is found between wind generation and demand. → Wind farms in SA are receiving a lower average price than in other States. → The results highlight the importance of appropriate electricity market design.

  9. Spot market for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colhoun, C.

    1982-01-01

    The spot market is always quoted for the price of uranium because little information is available about long-term contracts. A review of the development of spot market prices shows the same price curve swings that occur with all raw materials. Future long-term contracts will probably be lower to reflect spot market prices, which are currently in the real-value range of $30-$35. An upswing in the price of uranium could come in the next few months as utilities begin making purchases and trading from stockpiles. The US, unlike Europe and Japan, has already reached a supply and demand point where the spot market share is increasing. Forecasters cannot project the market price, they can only predict the presence of an oscillating spot or a secondary market. 5 figures

  10. The effect of ethanol listing on corn prices: Evidence from spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Rıza; Kutan, Ali M.; Shen, Fanglin

    2012-01-01

    The use of corn for ethanol has been the topic of heated discussions in the media and among policy makers. As part of this debate, some observers have argued that the use of corn in the production of ethanol has had adverse effects on corn prices. This paper contributes to this reviving debate by examining the impact of the listing of ethanol futures in the Chicago Board of Trade on the spot and futures prices for corn. We find a significant listing effect, indicating that the listing of ethanol has had a positive contribution to both price and volatility in the corn market, especially in the spot and the shorter maturity futures contracts, and mostly through its interaction with trading volume in the corn market. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for investors and its relevance for the ongoing debate on US energy policy. We conclude with some suggestions for future research.

  11. Influence of TCSC on congestion and spot price in electricity market with bilateral contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acharya, Naresh; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effect of TCSC on congestion and spot price in deregulated electricity markets. The paper could also be considered as a comprehensive tutorial on the influence of TCSC in electricity market. A voluntary pool market, where the market participants can trade electricity either via a pool or through bilateral contracts is considered. The electricity market is modeled in an optimal power flow framework with the objective of maximizing the social welfare. In such formulation, the Lagrange operators associated with the equality constraints associated with real power balance give the spot prices of energy at each bus of the system. Studies are carried out with and without TCSC at peak and low loading conditions to capture the influence and to see the effectiveness of TCSC at different loading conditions. The paper further explores the effect of TCSC compensation level on the spot prices and the congestion under varying pool and bilateral loading conditions. A 5-bus test system is used for numerical studies and to showcase the influence of TCSC in an electricity market environment. (author)

  12. Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diongue, Abdou Ka; Guegan, Dominique; Vignal, Bertrand

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we investigate conditional mean and conditional variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. Particularly, we provide the analytical expression of the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000-December 31, 2002 and we test spot prices forecasts until one-month ahead forecast. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA-GARCH benchmark model using the year 2003 as the out-of-sample. The proposed model outperforms clearly the benchmark model. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria. (author)

  13. The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Horowitz, I.; Moore, J.; Pacheco, A.

    2011-01-01

    The literature on renewable energy suggests that an increase in intermittent wind generation would reduce the spot electricity market price by displacing high fuel-cost marginal generation. Taking advantage of a large file of Texas-based 15-min data, we show that while rising wind generation does indeed tend to reduce the level of spot prices, it is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. The key policy implication is that increasing use of price risk management should accompany expanded deployment of wind generation. - Highlights: → Rising wind generation in ERCOT tends to reduce electricity spot prices. → Rising wind generation in ERCOT is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. → Increased price risk management should accompany expanded wind power deployment.

  14. State of the art in the estimation of energy prices in the spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botero B, Sergio; Cano C, Jovan A

    2007-01-01

    Since the start energy markets deregulation in the world, several spot market (short term) price prediction methods have been developed? this article identifies and compares the main methods of prediction used in Colombia and other international markets. With this review it is possible to determine the state of the knowledge in the specific subject and then to look for the development of new forecasting techniques that can contribute to the solution of this problem. The prediction horizon is something that must be taken into account in the review of the several techniques, given that both the magnitude of the final model of estimation, and the time series treatment type, depend on this horizon.

  15. A bid solicitation and selection method for developing a competitive spot priced electric market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ancona, J.J.

    1997-01-01

    The electric utility industry is in the beginning throes of a transformation from a cost-based regulated structure to a more market based less regulated system. Traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch methodologies can continue to provide reliable least-cost solutions, providing they are modified to accommodate a larger sphere of market participants. This paper offers a method for an entity such as an Independent System Operator (ISO) to solicit and evaluate bids for developing a spot priced electric market by replicating existing utility practices that are effective and efficient, while creating an open and equitable competitive marketplace for electricity

  16. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

    2010-01-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  17. Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da; Cerqueira, Pedro A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. Iberia stands as an ideal case-study, where the high level deployment of wind power is observed, together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the Portuguese and the Spanish spot electricity markets. Logit and non-parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power, together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand. Logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour, and then, notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge, a non-parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models. Results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or, more generally, with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation. The European interconnection capacity target of 10% of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration. Therefore, pro-active coordination policies, governing both interconnections and renewables deployment, should be further developed. -- Highlights: •Assess determinants on market splitting behaviour of Iberian electricity markets. •Logit and non-parametric models to express market splitting probability response. •Explanatory variables: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power; ATC and demand. •Results: increase of market splitting probability with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity. •Coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment

  18. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  19. Volume higher; spot price ranges widen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October 1994 uranium market summary. During this reporting period, volume on the spot concentrates market doubled. Twelve deals took place: three in the spot concentrates market, one in the medium and long-term market, four in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. The restricted price range widened due to higher prices at the top end of the range, while the unrestricted price range widened because of lower prices at the bottom end. Spot conversion prices were higher, and enrichment prices were unchanged

  20. On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Tim; Luther, Joachim

    2004-01-01

    Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity

  1. On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.; Luther, J.

    2004-01-01

    Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity. (Author)

  2. Electricity storages - optimised operation based on spot market prices; Stromspeicher. Optimierte Fahrweise auf Basis der Spotmarktpreise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernhard, Dominik; Roon, Serafin von [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2010-06-15

    With its integrated energy and climate package the last federal government set itself ambitious goals for the improvement of energy efficiency and growth of renewable energy production. These goals were confirmed by the new government in its coalition agreement. However, they can only be realised if the supply of electricity from fluctuating renewable sources can be made to coincide with electricity demand. Electricity storages are therefore an indispensable component of the future energy supply system. This article studies the optimised operation of an electricity storage based on spot market prices and the influence of wind power production up to the year 2020.

  3. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  4. Water: The Only Factor Influencing the Price of Energy in the Spot Market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian electric energy generation system is based on its hydroelectric power plants, making the country dependent on proper rainfall and, thus, raising the possibility of energy stress situations, such as the energy-rationing scenario observed in the beginning of the century and the latest water crisis (2014. Moments of water scarcity are followed by an increase in energy prices, which affects the economy as whole. Therefore, it is relevant to understand which factors in the Brazilian Electric System affect the energy price and the individual importance of each. This paper aimed to analyze which the key variables influencing the energy price in the spot market are by using official data from the National Electric System Operator. The used data was from the period July/2001 to July/2014, which was employed in a multiple regression methodology along with time series. The results suggest an inverse relationship between the natural flow of rivers (directly related to rainfall and the energy price. Moreover, they also point to an inverse relationship between the potential energy stored in reservoirs as water and the energy price.

  5. Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

    2015-01-01

    In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

  6. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  7. Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, Phillip; Hinich, Melvin J.; Foster, John

    2010-01-01

    In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to June 2009 to test for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing daily and weekly cycles in load and spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) to the time series of half hourly spot prices and load demand from 7/12/1998 to 30/06/2009 using a FORTRAN 95 program. We find the presence of significant third and fourth-order (nonlinear) serial dependence in the weekly load and spot price data in particular, but to a much more marginal extent, in the daily data. (author)

  8. Do changes in natural gas futures prices influence changes in natural gas spot prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    Data on natural gas futures and spot markets are examined to determine if variability in price on futures markets influences variability in price on spot markets. Using econometric techniques, it is found that changes in futures contract prices do not precede changes in spot market prices. (Author)

  9. Volume dips; spot price ranges narrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. Volume in the spot concentrates market fell below 1 million lbs U3O8. In total, twelve deals took place compared to 28 deals in August. Of the twelve deals, three took place in the spot concentrates market, two took place in the medium and long-term market, three in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. Restricted prices weakened, but unrestricted prices firmed slightly. The enrichment price range narrowed a bit

  10. The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

    2017-01-01

    Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

  11. New types of contracts. Part 1. Too high prices on the spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    In two articles, the state of the art of new types of contract such as swaps, futures and spot contracts is covered. What is the situation of the Dutch deregulating market in this respect? In this first article the focus is on the spot market for electricity, while the second article in the next month's issue will deal with the gas market. Four foreign brokers are active in the Dutch electricity market in addition to Amsterdam Power Exchange (APX). The four major power producing companies, being subject to a Protocol, are not allowed to trade their power directly on the APX. That's why most of the power traded through the APX comes from outside the Netherlands. Thus, the foreign brokers complement the service package of the APX

  12. Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas. A Real-Time Analysis of market integration using the Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siliverstovs, Boriss; Neumann, Anne

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is currently undergoing a liberalization process with the aim of creating a single, unified market. We use time-varying coefficient estimation models, applying the Kalman filter to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has lead to almost perfect price convergence between theses locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the European continent does not seem to be working so far. (Author)

  13. Pre-announcements of price increase intentions in liner shipping spot markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; Rytter, Niels G M; Jiang, Liping

    2017-01-01

    competition perspective, which will indirectly indicate whether carriers are able to manipulate spot rates following GRI announcements. Taking the Far East–North Europe trade between 2009 and 2013 as an example, the paper first reveals the gradual increase of GRI frequency and size, which reflects carriers...... factors, in sequence of explanation power, are the total capacity of GRI carriers, the idling fleet size, the spot rate level, and the average ship-loading factor. Clearly the latter three factors are market fundamentals, which are unlikely to be influenced by an individual carrier in the short term....... In actual fact, the conclusion reached is that there is little evidence that carriers can manipulate and distort spot rates through GRIs...

  14. Spot Pricing When Lagrange Multipliers Are Not Unique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao; Zhong, Jin

    2012-01-01

    Classical spot pricing theory is based on multipliers of the primal problem of an optimal market dispatch, i.e., the solution of the dual problem. However, the dual problem of market dispatch may yield multiple solutions. In these circumstances, spot pricing or any standard pricing practice based...... on a strict extension of the principles of spot pricing and surplus allocation, we propose a new pricing methodology that can yield unique, impartial, and robust solution. The new method has been analyzed and compared with other pricing approaches in accordance with spot pricing theory. Case studies support...

  15. Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

  16. Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen

    2007-01-01

    We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)

  17. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  18. The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (author)

  19. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  20. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  1. Oil futures and spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samii, M.V.

    1992-01-01

    In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

  2. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  3. Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels

    In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...

  4. MARKET ECONOMICS PRICING PARTICULARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Parshin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.

  5. Price formation and market mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neff, T.L.

    1991-01-01

    World markets for nuclear fuel have changed greatly since the 1970s. In earlier days, firms specializing in mining, conversion, enrichment and fabrication negotiated directly with end users, primarily under long term contracts at specified prices. This old model is gone. Market structure has been transformed: traditional suppliers now compete with traders, some of whom can offer a much larger menu of products and terms than primary suppliers. Utilities act as traders, converters as brokers, brokers as traders, producers as buyers, and so on. De-enrichment, de-conversion, loans, swaps, interchanges and other new kinds of transactions have proliferated. These changes in market structure and market mechanisms have been accompanied by substantial changes in price formation, that is the process by which market price is set. Today, the level and direction of price are set in a trading dominated spot market environment, fuelled by inventory liquidation and Soviet and other non-traditional supply. (author)

  6. Exploring the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices and identifying hot spots in Berlin’s residential property market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulen, Philipp an de; Mitze, Timo Friedel

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we use residual values obtained from an estimated hedonic pricing model to assess the role of district-level neighbourhood effects for the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices in Berlin between 2008 and 2013. By doing so, we also aim at identifying hot and cold spots ...... analysis (ESDA) toolbox, we finally pinpoint particular hot spots of the city’s residential property market associated with a significant spatial clustering of similar rental price values around individual observations....... proximity to the city centre compared to similar properties in Berlin’s periphery once we control for the properties’ physical characteristics. The observed temporal evolution of the rental price distribution between 2008 and 2013 thereby hints at an ongoing gentrification process in Germany’s capital...... associated with the current housing market boom. This visual impression is also confirmed by the application of quantile regressions for a correlation analysis between quality-adjusted rental price values and Berlin district-level characteristics obtained from the last census in 2011. Among other factors, we...

  7. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy; Redes neurais artificiais aplicadas na previsao de precos spot no mercado de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso [Univesidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia], emails: alcantaro@iee.usp.br, aquiles@iee.usp.br

    2010-07-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  8. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  9. Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...... they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework....

  10. Market News Price Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Real-time price data collected by the Boston Market News Reporter. The NOAA Fisheries' "Fishery Market News" began operations in New York City on February 14, 1938....

  11. Market, trading and coal price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, J.C.; Cornot-Gandolphe, S.; Labrunie, L.; Lemoine, St.; Vandijck, M.

    2006-01-01

    The coal world experienced a true upheaval in the past five years World coal consumption went up 28 % between 2000 and 2005, as a result of the strong growth in Chinese demand. The growth should continue in the coming years: electrical plant builders' orders are mainly for coal. The regained interest in coal is based on the constraints experienced by competing energies (increase in oil and natural gas prices, geopolitical uncertainties, supply difficulties) and by the abundant reserves of coal in the world and the competitiveness of its price. The strong growth in world coal demand comes with a change in rules governing steam coal trading. While long term bilateral agreements were most common until the late nineties, there has been a true revolution in coal marketing since 2000: spot contracts, stock exchange emergence and futures contracts, price indexes. In a few years, the steam coal market has become a true commodities market, overtaking many more goods. The price of coal has also gone through strong variations since 2003. Whereas the price had been stable for decades, in 2004 the strong increase in China' s demand for coal and iron ore resulting in transport shortage, caused a strong increase in CAF coal prices. Since then, prices have gone down, but remain higher than the Eighties and Nineties levels. In spite of the increase, coal remains available at more competitive prices than its competing energies. (authors)

  12. Market overview: Volume and prices remain low

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in February 1997 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  13. EXPLANATORY MODEL OF SPOT PRICE OF IRON ORE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Enrique Villalva A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to construct an explanatory model of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. For this, the method of multiple linear regressions was used. As a dependent variable, the spot price of iron ore (62% Fe China Tianjin port was taken, between 2010 and 2013. As independents variables were taken seven variables of international iron ore market. The resulting model includes variables: Iron ore inventory in Chinese ports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI, Iron ore exports from Brazil & Australia and Chinese Rebar Steel Price, as explanatory variables of the behavior of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. The model has an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 of 0.90, and was validated by comparing its predictions vs. known values of 2014.

  14. Market based solutions for power pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangensteen, Ivar

    2002-06-01

    The report examines how the price for effect reserves, spot market power and regulated power is formed provided ideal market conditions rule. Primarily the price determining factors in a market for power reserves are examined and how the connection between this market and the energy market (the spot market) is. In a free market there would be a balance between what the actors may obtain by operating in the open market for power reserves/regulated power on the one hand and the market for spot power on the other. Primarily we suppose that the desired amount of power reserve is known. Secondly the problem constellation is extended to comprise the size of the effect reserves i.e. the optimising of the requirement to the power reserves. The optimal amount of power reserves is obtained when there is a balance between the cost and the benefit. This optimal balance is achieved when expected macro economical loss due to outfacing balances against the cost of maintaining larger reserves. By using a simple model it is demonstrated that a system operator regulates the maximal price in the regulated market and this equals the rationing price. The actors will offer sufficient reserves even if the reserve price is zero (provided risk neutrality). If the maximal price for regulated power is lower the price of effect reserves will rise. Based on the same simple model calculations are made for how short and long term market balance will be for increasing demands

  15. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  16. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

    1998-01-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  17. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  18. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Quotations in bona fide spot markets. 27.96 Section 27... Differences § 27.96 Quotations in bona fide spot markets. The price or value and differences between the price... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in...

  19. Rising prices squeeze gas marketer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lunan, D.

    2000-06-19

    Apollo Gas, a Toronto-based gas marketer, is considering options to enhance unit holder value, including sale of its 21,000 gas supply contracts, just weeks after it was forced out of the Alberta market by rising gas prices. Although the company had reported first quarter revenues of more than $15 million and earnings through that period of about $2.1 million, increases of 33 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over the same period in 1999, the company is resigned to the fact that such performance markers are not likely to be reached again in the foreseeable future, hence the decision to sell. About 95 per cent of Apollo's current transportation service volumes are matched to existing fixed-price supply contract which are due to expire in November 2000. After that, it is about 75 per cent matched for the balance of the term of its customer contracts (mostly five years). This means that the company is exposed to market prices that are likely to continue to increase. If this prediction holds true, Apollo would be forced to purchase the unhedged volumes of gas it needs to service its customers in the spot market at prices higher than prices the company is charging to its customers.

  20. Rising prices squeeze gas marketer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunan, D.

    2000-01-01

    Apollo Gas, a Toronto-based gas marketer, is considering options to enhance unit holder value, including sale of its 21,000 gas supply contracts, just weeks after it was forced out of the Alberta market by rising gas prices. Although the company had reported first quarter revenues of more than $15 million and earnings through that period of about $2.1 million, increases of 33 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over the same period in 1999, the company is resigned to the fact that such performance markers are not likely to be reached again in the foreseeable future, hence the decision to sell. About 95 per cent of Apollo's current transportation service volumes are matched to existing fixed-price supply contract which are due to expire in November 2000. After that, it is about 75 per cent matched for the balance of the term of its customer contracts (mostly five years). This means that the company is exposed to market prices that are likely to continue to increase. If this prediction holds true, Apollo would be forced to purchase the unhedged volumes of gas it needs to service its customers in the spot market at prices higher than prices the company is charging to its customers

  1. The relation of monthly spot to futures prices for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between the spot price for natural gas for a delivery month and the futures contract price for the same delivery month is examined. The estimated regression equation provides a good summary of the relationship between spot and futures prices for the time period and can also be used to obtain accurate forecasts of spot prices. It appears that the natural gas futures market is inefficient. (author)

  2. Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

    Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...

  3. Customizing Prices in Online Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Werner Reinartz

    2002-01-01

    Dynamic pricing is the dynamic adjustment of prices to consumers depending on the value these customers attribute to a good. Underlying the concept of dynamic pricing is what marketers call price customization. Price customization is the charging of different prices to end consumers based on a discriminatory variable. Internet technology will serve as a great enabling tool for making dynamic pricing accessible to many industries.

  4. Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Papatulica

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

  5. A new index for electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

    2010-01-01

    Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

  6. Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

  7. Feast or famine: 1992 spot market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    There was nothing temperate about the uranium spot market in 1992. It was a year of extremes. Demand took off at a brisk pace early in the year as utilities, enticed by low U3O8 prices and interest rates, stepped up their discretionary purchases. With the NUKEM price range sinking to an all-time low of US$6.75-7.70 in November 1991, utilities reckoned that prices had bottomed out and decided to buy and hold material. Indeed, the upper end of NUKEM's range remained below $8.00 per lb for much of the first half of 1992. The main cause of low prices was the flood of imports from the crumbling Soviet Union and its successor, the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]. The CIS republics quickly embraced a free-market philosophy to boost their faltering economies, and several hoped to use uranium as a source of badly-needed hard currency. But they were about to get a harsh introduction to capitalism. It came in the form of government intervention, in both the US and Europe. In May, the US Department of Commerce made its preliminary determination that the uranium-producing republics of the CIS were selling material in the US at less than fair market value. The antidumping case was eventually settled in October when the CIS republics [Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan] signed suspension agreements subjecting CIS origin uranium to price and quantity quotas in the US

  8. Short run pricing in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ring, B. J.; Read, E. G.

    1996-01-01

    In response to the need for more responsive, competitive and decentralized pricing strategies forced upon the industry by deregulation, this study reviewed the type of electricity pricing required to coordinate a competitive wholesale electricity market over time periods typically of the order of one hour. It was found that nodal spot pricing can provide a straight-forward mechanism for providing the correct signals to market participants, while reflecting the costs and complexities of transmission network operation. Provided that all binding constraints are represented in the pricing model, and assuming that they are used in conjunction with long term contracts and capacity rights, such pricing can potentially deliver most of the benefits promised by perfect coordination, while allowing competition to flourish. 4 refs

  9. Spot volume nearly 5 million lbs; restricted price hits $11.00

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in March 1995 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. The 40 transactions made for the month are described separately for each market. Deals made in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and enrichment markets are further detailed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  10. Comparing the spot prices from Powernext and EEX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galli, A.; Armstrong, M.

    2005-01-01

    Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange. Powernext started operating on 27 November 2001. Although the German exchange, EEX, has been functioning for much longer, the two have many common points. Both use the same system for fixing the day-ahead spot price, the one developed by NordPool. In contrast to Omel in Spain, power producers in France and Germany are not obliged to sell through the exchange. In addition, the cross-border transmission lines that physically link the French and German grids, not only make the electricity supply more reliable they also allow cross-border commercial transactions which should homogenize prices in both countries. So after nearly a year of operation it is interesting to compare the spot prices on the two exchanges in order to have a better understanding of the statistical properties of the prices in the two markets and the relationship between them. This information will be used when modelling the structure of the day-ahead spot prices. The data used to carry out the study consists of the (hourly) spot prices for electricity from Powernext and EEX, for the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 December 2002. Data from the first five weeks of trading were not included because traded volumes were relatively low initially and so these data are not necessarily representative. This report is divided into four sections. The first one presents the basic statistics, starting with the histograms of all the 8064 spot prices in the 336 days, for both exchanges. In time series data, it is usual to find three types of seasonality: daily, weekly and annual. As the available data cover less than one calendar year, it is too early to attempt to study annual trends. So we limit ourselves to studying daily and weekly fluctuations. Plotting the hourly average prices for each day of the week shows some interesting differences between Powernext and

  11. Forecasting European thermal coal spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicja Krzemień

    2015-01-01

    Finally, in order to analyse the time series model performance a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN was used and its performance compared against the whole AR(2 process. Empirical results obtained confirmed that there is no statistically significant difference between both methods. The GRNN analysis also allowed pointing out the main drivers that move the European Thermal Coal Spot prices: crude oil, USD/CNY change and supply side drivers.

  12. TOURISM MARKET: PRICING ISSUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Kiseleva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Article retractedThe article is devoted to the actual topic of our time - the development of tourism services. The development of tourism is the leading technology trend dynamics maroon economic caused social restructuring of modern society. Macroeconomic Financial Statistics conrms the minimum amplitude of cyclical uctuations in the service sector, which turns it into countercyclical tool. In the Russian Federation the economic problem of a state policy in the sphere of tourist services is defined - to having turned tourism in competitive, innovative, countercyclical, and highly protable sector of national business. In article pricing factors are dened and are dened key of them, responsible for the cost of a tourist product. This work answers such questions of travel company as: denition of optimum group, formation of a transport tariff, structure of a tourist product on the main and accompanying services and their range, ways of sale. A practical advice by calculation of expenses is given. Correlation and regression and cluster analyses acted as research tools when performing work. In article the conclusion is drawn that the main methods of marketing management of pricing in the market of tourist services are: transition to the unified technology of granting a service on the basis of ISO; intensication and integration of the sphere of production and services

  13. A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting

  14. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-01-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

  15. Interactions between the German Electricity Spot Market and the Reserve Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graeber, Bernhardt

    2005-01-01

    Eight years after market opening, Germany has well established spot and future markets for electricity. Besides OTC and Internet broker platforms the main market place is the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig (EEX) with its spot and future market. Less known is the reserve energy market in Germany. The four German transmission system operators (TSOs) EnBW, EON, RWE and Vattenfall purchase network services on the reserve energy market. Products with specific technical requirements are primary, secondary and tertiary reserve. (Details about the technical requirements and typical means for providing the required services will be presented.) Each TSO organises a separate auction for these products - for primary and secondary reserve half-yearly, for tertiary reserve daily. Due to the technical requirements the liquidity on these markets is limited, but especially on the tertiary reserve market it is recently growing significantly due to new participants marketing several smaller municipal and industrial reserve power plants as combined bids which meet the 30 MW min. capacity requirement. Every power plant or interruptible load could not only be offered as capacity on the reserve market but could also be dispatched for the spot market. Therefore the developments of prices on these markets are not independent and opportunity costs against the spot market can be estimated for different type of plants bidding in the reserve market. Another interaction between reserve and spot market is caused by the balancing price system in Germany. Prices for balancing energy meeting deviations between load, trading balance and production of a market participant are based on quarter-hourly reserve energy costs encountered by the TSO. As unbiased load and production forecasts are not strictly enforced by the TSOs so far, part of the planned demand could be met with balancing energy if EEX spot market prices rise above expected balancing energy prices. This interrelationship has a

  16. Spot volume exceeds 2 million lbs (again); restricted price hits $10/lb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the January 1995 uranium market summary. Volume on the spot concentrates market exceeded 2 million lbs equivalent for the second consecutive month. Six deals took place; four in the spot concentrates market, one in the conversion market, and one in the enrichment market. No deals took place in the medium or long-term market. The upper end of the restricted price range reached $10.00 per lb U3O8, its highest level since December 1993. The lower end of the restricted price range strengthened to $9.75. The lower end of the spot conversion price range strengthed to $5.70 per kg U, and SWU prices firmed to the $75.00 to $87.00 level

  17. Gas pricing in Europe. Pt. 1. Wholesale markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donath, R.

    1996-01-01

    The article investigates gas pricing in the European procurement market and the wholesale markets of the most important EU consumer markets. It demonstrates that value-oriented pricing principles override cost-oriented pricing principles. For one thing, and independently of pricing principles, two- or three-part demand price systems or basic price systems are common. For another, the frequently encountered opportunities for the differentiation of prices show that as long as there is merely substitution competition instead of direct competition, gas suppliers have a certain degree of freedom in fixing their prices. By contrast, the introduction of direct competition in Great Britain has reduced suppliers' individual price fixing margins, because short-term supply and demand variations in the now created spot market are decisive for gas pricing. (orig.) [de

  18. The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo; Patrícia Pereira da Silva; Pedro Cerqueira

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the influence of wind power generation on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. We use logit models to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices together with explanatory variables like, wind speed, available transmission capacity and electricity demand. The results show that the probability of market splitting increases with the increase of wind power generation. The European intercon...

  19. Changes of uranium market price and trend in recent years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingwu; Chen Zuyi

    2008-01-01

    The market price (especially the spot price ) of uranium has experienced significant changes since 2004. Several stages of uranium price are summed up. It is the slow increase period of uranium price from 1991 to 2004, The uranium price rapid rise from 2005 to 2007. The price of uranium jumped sharply from the fourth quarter 2006 to first half of 2007. The price of uranium rapid declined and tended to be stable from second half 2007 to this day. Characteristics, reason and change trend of uranium price in these stages are summarized. (authors)

  20. Computation of spot prices and congestion costs in large interconnected power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukerji, R.; Jordan, G.A.; Clayton, R.; Haringa, G.E.

    1995-01-01

    Foremost among the new paradigms for the US utility industry is the ''poolco'' concept proposed by Prof. William W. Hogan of Harvard University. This concept uses a central pool or power exchange in which physical power is traded based on spot prices or market clearing prices. The rapid and accurate calculation of these ''spot'' prices and associated congestion costs for large interconnected power systems is the central tenet upon which the poolco concept is based. The market clearing price would be the same throughout the system if there were no system losses and transmission limitations did not exist. System losses cause small differences in market clearing prices as the cost of supplying a MW at various load buses includes the cost of losses. Transmission limits may cause large differences in market clearing prices between regions as low cost generation is blocked by the transmission constraints from serving certain loads. In models currently in use in the electric power industry spot price calculations range from ''bubble diagram'' type contract path models to full electrical representation such as GE-MAPS. The modeling aspects of the full electrical representation are included in the Appendix. The problem with the bubble diagram representation is that these models are liable to produce unacceptably large errors in the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs. The subtleties of the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs are illustrated in this paper

  1. Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

    We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

  2. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  3. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  4. Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redl, Christian; Haas, Reinhard; Huber, Claus; Boehm, Bernhard

    2009-01-01

    Since the liberalisation of the European electricity sector, forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons. For pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non-storability of electricity. In this case, according to economic theory, forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations. In the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the European Energy Exchange and the Nord Pool Power Exchange. In fact, price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long-term contracts. Although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures-spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out. (author)

  5. Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

  6. Asymmetric price responses, market integration and market power: A study of the U.S. natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murry, Donald; Zhu, Zhen

    2008-01-01

    We studied the market performance at selected, representative natural gas trading hubs in the U.S. and documented different price behaviors among various hubs. With NYMEX prices as the competitive benchmark, we found empirically that the spot price responses at some trading hubs were systematically asymmetric, thus demonstrating a market advantage by either buyers or sellers. We further found that the presence of market power was a very plausible explanation for this price behavior at some hubs. (author)

  7. The pricing of natural gas in US markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, S.P.A.; Yucel, M.K.

    1993-01-01

    Our econometric evidence indicates that changes in natural gas prices are unequal in the long run. Nonetheless, all downstream prices change by at least as much as the average well-head price. Statistically, residential and commercial prices change as much as the city gate price. In the face of persistent shocks, however, market institutions and market dynamics can lead to lengthy periods in which the residential and commercial prices of natural gas adjust less than the wellhead or city gate prices. Electrical and industrial users of natural gas rely heavily on spot supplies and can switch fuels easily. Their ability to switch fuels may be related to the development of a spot market to serve them. Reliance on the spot market may explain why these end users have seen a greater reduction in natural gas prices than have the LDCs over the past seven years. The ability to switch fuels may account for electrical and industrial prices being the source of shocks in their relationships with the wellhead price. It also may explain why prices in these end-sue markets are quick to adjust. Commercial and residential customers cannot switch fuels easily and rely heavily on LDCs for their natural gas. The inability of these end users to switch fuels probably contributes to the reluctance of LDCs to purchase spot supplies of gas. Reliance on contract supplies may explain why the city gate price has not declined as much as electrical and industrial prices of natural gas over the past seven years. Furthermore, the LDCs administer prices in the commercial and residential markets under state regulation

  8. Price Strategies in Banking Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuliana Cetina

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available All organizations must settle a price for the services they offer. The price for services is an important element of the marketing mix, being an important income source for the organization. The settlement of a correct price, both for the market and the competition, is a significant element for the sector of financial - banking services. Another important factor to take into consideration is the fact that the banks do not settle only the prices for individual services, but also coordinate their prices for service packages. As the competition in the financial - banking services has intensified, the settlement of correct prices has become an essential element for the marketing strategy. Nevertheless it is important to remind that the price is not a central element. There are other significant grounds, the price being only one of the elements of the marketing mix. Although in Romania many customers may be sensitive in present to the price, as the competition will increase, the quality of the services will become more important to the customers, and the demand will be complex.

  9. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  10. The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

    2018-01-01

    The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

  11. Seasonality in cocoa spot and forward markets: empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sarfo, S.; Geman, Hélyette

    2012-01-01

    This paper first describes the main features of supply and demand in cocoa spot markets. A state- variable model is proposed to describe the random evolution of cocoa forward curves over time, which essentially adapts to agricultural commodities, introduced by Borovkova and Geman (2006) for energy. In contrast to most of the literature on the subject, the first state variable is not the spot price, as it combines seasonal and stochastic features and may not be observable, instead, the average...

  12. 'ISL pattern reserve requirements for today's spot price,' or 'how many in-place pounds are needed for a mining pattern to be profitable in today's market'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthony, H.L.

    2000-01-01

    Recent uranium spot market values place additional burdens on the geologist and project manager to identify mineralized ore that will yield a profitable return on investment to the mining venture and its investors. The author reviews the various cost components that comprise the total work effort required to produce uranium via ISL methods to arrive at a suitable ore grade that will guarantee profitably. Amortization of costs based on recent expenditures for typical ISL operations are used in conjunction with wellfield development, operating and restoration costs to determine the ore value required to show a positive return on investment. (author)

  13. Option price and market instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  14. Locational marginal prices with SVC in Indian electricity market ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spot pricing based on short run marginal cost (SRMC) theory has the potential to provide the economic signals for the power system operation. Reactive power has gained importance as an ancillary service in competitive markets and its impact on nodal price can not be ignored. With the emergence of FACTS technology, ...

  15. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

  16. Capacity pricing in a free market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangensteen, Ivar; Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2005-01-01

    This report deals primarily with pricing of reserve capacity, partly on a theoretical basis and partly based on practical experience from the Norwegian market. In the theoretical part we describe a simple model for investigation of equilibrium prices on capacity reserves, spot power and regulating power. This model is based on strong simplifying assumptions. Next a computer model is introduced. That enables more complexity and makes it possible to analyse more realistic scenarios. Finally the report describes experiences from the Norwegian market. The Norwegian System Operator, Statnett, is responsible for the Balancing Market (BM) and Reserves Option Market (ROM), which was introduced a few years ago as a separate market for reserves. Experience with these market instruments are generally good and Statnett is preparing a new version for the winter 2004/2005. The report deals with generation as well as consumer side capacity reserves. One interesting observation is that in Norway the consumer side is providing more capacity reserves than the generators, but the consumers normally bid in a higher BM price than the generators. (author)

  17. Pricing Natural Gas. The Outlook for the European Market (Summary)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Long-term gas supply contracts contain price formulae, in which the gas price is usually linked to the price of another commodity, or to the spot price of gas in a particular market. In continental Europe the gas price in international long-term supply contracts is predominantly linked to oil products. At the same time, spot markets for gas in which gas prices are determined by supply and demand are developing in various EU markets. This paper addresses the question of to what extent the traditional form of oil-based price indexation is sustainable and/or will be sustained by the market players. It discusses the considerations the market players may have in favour of one or the other form of indexation, the external forces that may influence the choice of indexation in the short and longer terms and the consequences of change. It argues that pricing systems are a fundamental part of a market organisation, and that a shift to different pricing structures only happens if and when the main actors are convinced that they understand and accept the consequences of such change. It concludes that there is no strong evidence that the current hybrid situation, in which both forms of gas pricing co-exist, cannot continue. There are also no overriding reasons to intervene in the market practices of price formation. Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages under different market conditions, and to some extent complement each other in the current markets. Different types of risk and the appreciation thereof by the trading parties will determine particular choices of pricing rules and contracting conditions. More importantly, in today's market, in which new supplies are slow to come forward, the choice should be left to the market parties, particularly as sellers and buyers do not seem to be in strong disagreement

  18. Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulshof, Daan; Maat, Jan-Pieter van der; Mulder, Machiel

    2016-01-01

    After the liberalisation of the gas industry, trading hubs have emerged in Europe. Although these hubs appear to be liquid market places fostering gas-to-gas competition, the efficiency of the gas market remains a topic of interest as a fair share of gas is still traded through long-term contracts with prices linked to the oil price while the number of gas suppliers to the European market is limited. In order to assess the efficiency of the gas market, we analyse the day-ahead spot price at the Dutch gas hub over the period 2011–2014. We find that the oil price had a small positive impact on the gas price. Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the movement in gas prices. The availability of gas in storages and the outside temperature negatively influenced the gas price. We also find that the gas price was related to the production of wind electricity. Overall, we conclude that the day-ahead gas prices are predominantly determined by gas-market fundamentals. Policies to further integrate gas markets within Europe may extend this gas-to-gas competition to a larger region. - Highlights: •We analyse the development of the day-ahead spot price at TTF over 2011–2014. •The oil price had a small impact on the gas price, while the coal price had no effect. •Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the gas prices. •The gas prices are predominantly determined by weather and storage availability. •Policies to integrate gas markets foster gas-to-gas competition.

  19. Oil market prices 1989/1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, G.

    1991-01-01

    There are many oil markets. Oil Market Prices lists the markets, provides statistics on prices and the volumes of trade, analyses the price structures in the markets and provides supplementary information on ocean freight rates and oil refining margins. Oil Market Prices will serve as a permanent record of crude oil prices including those quoted on the futures and forward markets, the many wholesale prices for refined oil products, prices consumers pay and the average prices received by the oil companies. In all instances the sources of the statistics are given together with comprehensive listing of alternative sources. (Author)

  20. Analysing the relationship between wholesale and end-user prices in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, P.E.; Johnsen, T.A.; Naervae, T.; Wasti, S.

    2004-09-01

    Efficient pricing in a deregulated market means prices which closely reflect the cost of obtaining electricity in the wholesale market. This research report analyses and explains the relationship between wholesale prices (especially Spot Prices) and end-user prices for residential, industrial and commercial users in the Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian electricity markets. The report primarily analyses the closeness of wholesale and end-user price patterns (the primary tracking period is 1998-2003, focusing especially closely on Finland and the period 2002-2003). The report reveals that Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish end- user prices can all be said to follow spot prices (and other wholesale prices) to a greater or lesser extent. The relationship is however complex and, especially regarding spot prices, clearly closest in Norway, followed by Sweden and then Finland. Whilst, overall, Finnish prices seem quite competitive and Nordic end-user prices currently seem to be extremely similar, there is some cause for concern in Finland. In particular, very few customers have spot based tariffs; wholesale prices (including spot prices) appear to sometimes have been used as an excuse for end-user price rises; Finnish suppliers have often been slow to respond to post-spike spot price reductions; offer prices are currently often higher than standard variable prices; and suppliers seem quite free to follow any pricing strategy, regardless of the presence of competition. Six factors are identified which influence end-user prices and their relationship with wholesale (and particularly spot) prices: hydro-dependency; concentration and entry barriers; cultural and historical determination; legislation; pricing strategies; the competitive environment. The report additionally specifically illustrates a wide variety of possible supplier strategies which might explain Finnish end-user pricing. Spot prices seem to provide only a minor explanation for Finnish end-user prices. (orig.)

  1. Empirical analysis of uranium spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morman, M.R.

    1988-01-01

    The objective is to empirically test a market model of the uranium industry that incorporates the notion that, if the resource is viewed as an asset by economic agents, then its own rate of return along with the own rate of return of a competing asset would be a major factor in formulating the price of the resource. The model tested is based on a market model of supply and demand. The supply model incorporates the notion that the decision criteria used by uranium mine owners is to select that extraction rate that maximizes the net present value of their extraction receipts. The demand model uses a concept that allows for explicit recognition of the prospect of arbitrage between a natural-resource market and the market for other capital goods. The empirical approach used for estimation was a recursive or causal model. The empirical results were consistent with the theoretical models. The coefficients of the demand and supply equations had the appropriate signs. Tests for causality were conducted to validate the use of the causal model. The results obtained were favorable. The implication of the findings as related to future studies of exhaustible resources are: (1) in some cases causal models are the appropriate specification for empirical analysis; (2) supply models should incorporate a measure to capture depletion effects

  2. Delivered Pricing, FOB Pricing, and Collusion in Spatial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Paz Espinosa

    1992-01-01

    This article examines price discrimination and collusion in spatial markets. The problem is analyzed in the context of a repeated duopoly game. I conclude that the prevailing pricing systems depend on the structural elements of the market. Delivered pricing systems emerge in equilibrium in highly monopolistic and highly competitive industries, while FOB is used in intermediate market structures. The fact driving this result is that delivered pricing policies allow spatial price discrimination...

  3. Automatic demand response referred to electricity spot price. Demo description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grande, Ove S.; Livik, Klaus; Hals, Arne

    2006-05-01

    This report presents background, technical solution and results from a test project (Demo I) developed in the DRR Norway) project. Software and technology from two different vendors, APAS and Powel ASA, are used to demonstrate a scheme for Automatic Demand Response (ADR) referred to spot price level and a system for documentation of demand response and cost savings. Periods with shortage of energy supply and hardly any investments in new production capacity have turned focus towards the need for increased price elasticity on the demand side in the Nordic power market. The new technology for Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) and Remote Load Control (RLC) provides an opportunity to improve the direct market participation from the demand side by introducing automatic schemes that reduce the need for customer attention to hourly market prices. The low prioritized appliances, and not the total load, are in this report defined as the Demand Response Objects, based on the assumption that there is a limit for what the customers are willing to pay for different uses of electricity. Only disconnection of residential water heaters is included in the demo, due to practical limitations. The test was performed for a group of single family houses over a period of 2 months. All the houses were equipped with a radio controlled 'Ebox' unit attached to the water heater socket. The settlement and invoicing were based on hourly metered values (kWh/h), which means that the customer benefit is equivalent to the accumulated changes in the electricity cost per hour. The actual load reduction is documented by comparison between the real meter values for the period and a reference curve. The curves show significant response to the activated control in the morning hours. In the afternoon it is more difficult to register the response, probably due to 'disturbing' activities like cooking etc. Demo I shows that load reduction referred to spot price level can be done in a smooth way. The experiences

  4. Price convergence and information efficiency in German natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Growitsch, Christian; Stronzik, Marcus; Nepal, Rabindra

    2012-01-01

    In 2007, Germany changed network access regulation in the natural gas sector and introduced a so-called entry-exit system. The re-regulation's spot market effects remain to be examined. We use cointegration analysis and a state space model with time-varying coefficients to study the development of natural gas spot prices in the two major trading hubs in Germany and the interlinked Dutch spot market. To analyse information efficiency in more detail, the state space model is extended to an error correction model. Overall, our results suggest a reasonable degree of price convergence between the corresponding hubs. However, allowing for time-variant adjustment processes, the remaining price differentials are only partly explained by transportation costs, indicating capacity constraints. Nonetheless, market efficiency in terms of information processing has increased considerably among Germany and The Netherlands.

  5. Price discovery in dual-class shares across multiple markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina

    2018-01-01

    data to study price discovery in dual-class Brazilian stocks and their ADRs. We find that the foreign market is at least as informative as the home market and that shocks in the dual-class premium entail a permanent effect in normal times, but transitory in periods of financial distress......This paper proposes a new measure of price discovery that uses the spectral decomposition. The methodology is especially important in the context of large price systems, such as interest rate parities with spot and futures contracts or dual-class shares in multiple markets. We employ high frequency...

  6. Price Leadership and Unequal Market Sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Dijkstra, Peter T.

    2014-01-01

    We consider experimental markets of repeated homogeneous price-setting duopolies. We investigate the effect on collusion of sequential versus simultaneous price setting. We also examine the effect on collusion of changes in the size of each subject's market share in case both subjects set the same price. Our results show that sequential price setting compared with simultaneous price setting facilitates collusion, if subjects have equal market shares or if the follower has the larger market sh...

  7. Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

  8. Canadian natural gas market dynamics and pricing : an update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-10-01

    This energy market assessment (EMA) report discusses natural gas price formation and describes the current functioning of regional gas markets in Canada. This EMA also describes the factors affecting the price of natural gas in Canada and examines natural gas markets on a region-by region basis. It is shown that as part of an integrated North American market, prices of natural gas in Canada reflect supply and demand factors in both Canada and the United States. During the low oil price period of 1997/1998, high demand for natural gas outpaced the supply because of low drilling and production activity by producers. In response to the increased demand and lower levels of supply, the price of natural gas increased significantly in 1999 and 2000. This was followed by a period of market adjustment. The importance of electronic trading systems for enhancing price discovery was also discussed with reference to how spot and futures markets allow market participants to manage price volatility. It was determined that Canadians have had access to natural gas on terms and conditions equal to export customers, and at equal pricing. In early November 2000, natural gas prices in North American began to rise due to low levels of natural gas in storage. The price shocks were felt unevenly across the North American market. In response to the high prices, consumers conserved energy use, and many industrial users switched to cheaper fuels. By the spring 2001, demand continued to decrease at a time when production was high. These factors contributed to the downward pressure on gas prices. This EMA discusses the structure of market transactions and market adjustment mechanisms. It is presented in the context of the approaching 2002/2003 winter season where the tightening between natural gas supply and demand is expected to result in price volatility. 28 figs

  9. Prices dip, activity increases in unrestricted uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    April's activity in the restricted uranium market fluctuated in the same range as that observed in March. At the same time, NUKEM detects a weakening of prices in the unrestricted market to $7.45-$7.65. Unrestricted buyers seem to have detected lower prices as well; much of the new demand noted this month emerged in the unrestricted segment of the market. With this issue, NUKEM inaugurates a new market statistic. To better follow developments in the conversion market, we will report a spot price range for conversion services. This price measure will be derived in a manner analogous to NUKEM's other spot market price ranges. We will continue to publish the current NUKEM price range for new contracts for a few months. If you wish to retain the old conversion contract price range in future editions, please contact our US office. Four deals for near term delivery occurred in the uranium market in April, resulting in spot market transaction volume of 2.5 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. In the first week, a US non-utility purchased a small quantity of enriched uranium product from an intermediary in a spot transaction representing about 75,000 lbs U3O8. The second week saw the stealthy purchase of Portland General Electric's inventory of natural and enriched uranium. The buyer of PGE's 1.1 million lbs U3O8 equivalent has achieved an unusual degree of anonymity. Also during the second week, a US utility bought a small quantity of enriched uranium containing less than 25,000 lbs natural U3O8 equivalent

  10. Platform pricing in matching markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goos, M.; van Cayseele, P.; Willekens, B.

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a simple model of monopoly platform pricing accounting for two pertinent features of matching markets. 1) The trading process is characterized by search and matching frictions implying limits to positive cross-side network effects and the presence of own-side congestion.

  11. Marketing approach to pricing of rail freight

    OpenAIRE

    Savitska, G.

    2015-01-01

    Price the is essence of the economic interests the participants of the transport market, which manifests itself in maintaining or increasing of the main price component revenue. Pricing for transportation of cargoes railway transport in a market economy is the most important management decisions affecting traffic volumes, profitability and competitiveness in the transport market. The market pricing for transportation of cargoes railway transport is a concentrated expression of market conditio...

  12. Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

  13. Review of uranium market price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maragatham Kumar; Nik Arlina Nik Ali; Koh You Beng

    2007-01-01

    Uranium is used as an abundant source of concentrated energy and is the principal fuel for the generation of electricity by nuclear reactors. In nuclear reactors, the uranium fuel is assembled in such a way that a controlled fission chain reaction can be achieved. Since uranium is the main source of nuclear energy, demand prospects for uranium has increased dramatically with the renewed global interest in nuclear power generation in recent years. Although the global uranium market is relatively small worldwide, compared to other mineral and energy sources, it is a very important market as nuclear power generation accounts for about 18% of global electricity supply. After reaching historic lows in 1990s, uranium prices have risen substantially in recent years. The outlook for nuclear power has changed since 2000, with concerns over global warming, proven excellent safety record, competitive costs, progress on nuclear waste disposal issues and also continuing new nuclear plant construction around the world. These and various other influencing factors have resulted in the uranium market evolving from one that was driven by excess secondary supplies to that by primary production. This paper reviews the global market prices for the years 1987 until 2006 and the factors, which influence the changes in global uranium market prices. (Author)

  14. Electricity deregulation, spot price patterns and demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.; Flynn, P.C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines extensive hourly or half-hourly power price data from 14 deregulated power markets. It analyzes average diurnal patterns, relationship to system load, volatility, and consistency over time. Diurnal patterns indicate the average price spread between off-peak and on-peak and weekend vs. weekday power consumption. Volatility is measured by price velocity: the average normalized hourly change in power price, calculated daily. The calculated price velocity is broken down into an expected component that arises from the diurnal pattern and an unexpected component that arises from unknown factors. The analysis reveals significant differences among markets, suggesting that demand-side management (DSM) of power consumption is far more difficult in some markets than in others. At one extreme, Spain, Britain and Scandinavia show consistent diurnal price patterns, a stable relationship between price and system load, and a low unexplained component of price volatility. A power consumer in these markets could form a reasonable expectation of a reward for DSM of elective power consumption. At the other extreme, two markets in Australia show erratic diurnal price patterns from year to year, low correlation between price and system load, and a high amount of unexpected price velocity. A power consumer in these markets would have far greater difficulty in realizing a benefit from DSM. Markets that experienced one period of very high prices without a clear external cause, such as California and Alberta, appear to have a significant longer-term erosion of public support for deregulation. (author)

  15. Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

  16. The market value and impact of offshore wind on the electricity spot market: Evidence from Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ederer, Nikolaus

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Market value of offshore wind based on feed-in and weather data is assessed. • Merit order effect caused by wind energy is simulated for 2006–2014. • Results indicate same impact of on- and offshore wind on market price and value. • Steadier wind resource offshore imposes less variability on market price. • Characteristic of variable wind feed-in cannot be blamed for price deterioration. - Abstract: Although the expansion of offshore wind has recently increased in Germany, as in other countries, it is still forced to defend its role in long-term energy policy plans, particularly against its onshore counterpart, to secure future expansion targets and financial support. The objective of this article is to investigate the economic effects of offshore wind on the electricity spot market and thus open up another perspective that has not been part of the debate about offshore vs. onshore wind thus far. A comprehensive assessment based on a large amount of market, feed-in and weather data in Germany revealed that the market value of offshore wind is generally higher than that of onshore wind. Simulating the merit order effect on the German day-ahead electricity market for the short term and long term in the years 2006–2014 aimed to identify the reason for this observation and show whether it is also an indication of a lower impact on the electricity spot market due to a steadier wind resource prevailing offshore. Although the results suggest no difference regarding the impact on market price and value, they indeed reveal that offshore wind imposes less variability on the spot market price than onshore wind. In addition, the long-term simulation proved that the ongoing price deterioration cannot be blamed on the characteristic of variable wind production

  17. Oil price stability and free markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamani, A.Z.

    1992-01-01

    The oil industry, like any capital-intensive industry with long supply lead times, is prone to price instability. Free markets in oil reflect this inherent instability, for prices are efficient signallers of imbalances between supply and demand. Free markets are desirable in principle, but entirely free oil markets are unstable. Volatile oil prices are undesirable. This article advocates trading some market freedom for more price stability, since such a trade off will be beneficial to the world as a whole. (author)

  18. The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

  19. Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, Christoph; Wozabal, David

    2013-01-01

    The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation. -- Highlights: •We investigate the efficiency of the German spot market for electricity. •We employ a conjectural variations approach and a fundamental market model. •Peak load hours and base load hours are analyzed separately. •We find that the market was competitive from 2007 to 2010 for both base and peak hours. •Policies to promote market transparency in Germany can be regarded as successful

  20. Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity....... Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off...

  1. Market stumbles, lowest prices since end of '92

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the December 1993/January 1994 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. Activity during this trading period was quiet, with only six deals concluded during the month of January (compared to twelve deals in December). There were two deals in the conversion market, two deals in the spot market, and two other deals in the enrichment market. No deals were announced in the medium and long-term market, but four U.S. utilities came out for approximately 8.4M pounds equivalent

  2. Which way the natural gas price. An attempt to predict the direction of natural gas spot price movements using trader positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchanan, W.K.; Hodges, P.; Theis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This research provides a method of predicting direction of spot price movements in the natural gas market for the month succeeding from market participants positions in the futures market. Cumby and Modest (Cumby, R.E., Modest, D.M., 1987. Testing for market timing ability: a framework for forecast evaluation. Journal of Financial Economics 19, 169-189) provide the backdrop for analyzing the futures market positions of large hedgers and speculators to arrive at conclusions of market price movements in the spot market. This methodology is suggested as a means for municipalities entering the natural gas market to improve upon their ordering of quantities of gas for the ensuing months in order to take advantage of possibly foreseeable price trends

  3. Lead-lag effects between Brent Crude Futures and its respective spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aims the analyses of the causality and temporal precedence relationships between the spot and futures prices of Brent oil, those last ones inherent to financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, the main tools used were: Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test (GCBEW; generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors, those three last ones were estimated based in a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC, adjusted to the analyzed variables. The results indicated that, for the stipulated period, there was a pricing lightweight leadership from the futures contracts to the prices of spot market. However, as a conclusion of the article, the understanding is that this small difference, calculated in several econometric tools, cannot be considered enough to indicate that the Brent oil future market would be distorting its respective spot prices, despite the economic fundamentals of the physical market, such as production, consumption and stockpiling processes. Therefore, management decisions in industries exposed to crude oil prices should be aware of both physical and future markets’ prospections.

  4. Market prices for solar electricity in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2006-01-01

    The Ontario electricity supply is facing considerable challenges while demand is increasing due to a growing population and increased economic growth needs. In response to these challenges, the government of Ontario established the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) in 2004 to ensure adequate, reliable and secure electricity supply and resources in Ontario. The OPA has also engaged in activities to facilitate the diversification of sources of electricity supply by promoting the use of cleaner energy sources and technologies, including alternative energy sources and renewable energy. The purpose of this paper was to advance discussions regarding the contribution that solar PV can make to Ontario's supply mix. In particular, it determined the value of the electricity that would have been produced by a PV system located in Waterloo, Ontario under the following 4 pricing regimes: (1) the conventional small user tariff system currently in place in Ontario, (2) the time-of-use pricing system that is voluntarily available to those who have smart meters installed in their facilities, (3) the spot market, hourly prices, to which some of Ontario's largest electricity users are exposed, and (4) the recently-proposed rate for standard offer contracts for PV systems. The study showed that a solar PV system that produces 3,000 kWh of electricity over the course of a year would generate different revenue amounts, ranging from the smallest amount of approximately $174.00 to $1,260.00, depending on the pricing regime. The pricing regime that reflects real, time-of-day electricity prices appears to be most advantageous to solar PV systems. It was recommended that additional work is needed regarding the other benefits of solar PV, such as avoided capacity/generation needs, avoided transmission and distribution cost and losses, environmental benefits, and job creation. 3 refs., 4 tabs., 8 figs

  5. Pricing of Contracts for Difference in the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristiansen, T.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to give an introduction to, and a pricing analysis of a new forward locational price differential product, Contracts for Difference (CfD), introduced the 17th of November 2000 at Nord Pool - the Nordic electricity exchange. To our knowledge there is no literature available of how the Nordic CfDs are priced. The CfD is a forward market product with reference to the difference between the future seasonal Area Price and System Price. By using available historical trading prices and spot prices for four seasonal contracts and one yearly contract, we analyze the relationships between the contract prices and the value of the underlying asset. For the first four seasonal contracts it appears that CfDs traded at Nord Pool are mostly over-priced relative to the underlying asset. Pricing theory for forward contracts explains this by the presence of a majority of risk-averse consumers who are willing to pay a risk premium for receiving the future price differential. We utilize statistical analysis with regard to the contract prices and the underlying asset, and find some interesting relationships. The analysis is preliminary due to the fact that the CfD market is relatively new. (Author)

  6. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

  7. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

    2010-08-15

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

  8. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices: An exploratory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien, E-mail: julien.chevallier@dauphine.f [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

    2010-08-15

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content.

  9. Optimal methodology for a machining process scheduling in spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusta, J.M.; Torres, F.; Khodr, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity spot markets have introduced hourly variations in the price of electricity. These variations allow the increase of the energy efficiency by the appropriate scheduling and adaptation of the industrial production to the hourly cost of electricity in order to obtain the maximum profit for the industry. In this article a mathematical optimization model simulates costs and the electricity demand of a machining process. The resultant problem is solved using the generalized reduced gradient approach, to find the optimum production schedule that maximizes the industry profit considering the hourly variations of the price of electricity in the spot market. Different price scenarios are studied to analyze the impact of the spot market prices for electricity on the optimal scheduling of the machining process and on the industry profit. The convenience of the application of the proposed model is shown especially in cases of very high electricity prices.

  10. End user prices in liberalised energy markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lijesen, M.G. [Afdeling Energie en Grondstoffen, Centraal Planbureau CPB, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2002-12-01

    As European energy markets move towards deregulation, energy prices shift from classic 'cost plus' prices towards market prices. We develop a model for the retail and wholesale energy markets in Europe, based on Bertrand competition in a two part pricing structure with switching costs. We use the model to forecast end user electricity and natural gas prices and find that the introduction of competition in energy retail and wholesale markets will decrease standing charges, lowering total costs for energy users. A larger number of entrants, a cost advantage for one of the suppliers, or lower switching costs reduces standing charges further.

  11. Lead lag relationships between futures and spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asche, Frank; Guttormsen, Atle G

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we examine the relationship between spot and futures prices. This is traditionally done by testing for cointegration with the Engle and Granger methodology, before one specifies an error correction models in order to draw inference about causality. This approach, although appealing for its simplicity, is problematic on at least two accounts. First, the approach is only valid given an exogeneity assumption, which is what one wants to test, and second, given that there are several contracts with different times to expiration, bivariate specifications cannot capture all the relevant information. We show that both problems can be avoided if the tests are carried out in a multivariate framework like the Johansen test. An empirical application is carried out on futures prices for gas oil. Findings indicate that futures prices leads spot prices, and that futures contracts with longer time to expiration leads contracts with shorter time to expiration. (author)

  12. Energy price forecast by market analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jongepier, A.G.

    2000-01-01

    A power trader benefits from accurate price predictions. Based on market analyses, KEMA Connect has developed - in cooperation with Essent Energy Trading - a market model, enhancing the insight into market operation and one's own actions and thus resulting in accurate price predictions

  13. Energy is not Coffee. An assessment of blind spots on energy spot-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jepma, C.J.; Spijker, E.; Van der Gaast, W.; De Jong, F.; Overmars, P.

    2006-01-01

    This study was to be the first in a series of studies on the title subject. It specifically focuses on the differences and similarities with a number of other spot-markets and aims to frame the energy spot markets and their potential development into a broader perspective. Main conclusion is that energy spot-markets differ from several other physical and non-physical spot-markets in many ways. This implies that 'perfect' energy spot-markets may inherently be (much) less perfect than other spot-markets that have approximated the stage of theoretical perfection

  14. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weron, Rafal [Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

    2008-05-15

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  15. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weron, Rafal

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  16. PRICE ON THE ORGANIC FOOD MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEORGE ATANASOAIE

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices are analyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products, distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage. This paper is based on the investigation of secondary sources, of specialized literature related to PAE consumers. The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or high level and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very important barrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communication policies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development.

  17. THE PRICE ON THE ORGANIC PRODUCT MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ATĂNĂSOAIE GEORGE SEBASTIAN

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices areanalyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products,distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage.The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or highlevel and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very importantbarrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communicationpolicies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development

  18. Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

  19. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-06-15

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  20. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-01-01

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  1. Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference. Evidence from the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marckhoff, Jan; Wimschulte, Jens

    2009-01-01

    In electricity markets, not only does the risk of substantial price variations over time exist, but so does the risk of price variations over space, as prices between locations can differ due to transmission congestion. To manage this risk, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), i.e., forwards on the spread between a particular area price and the (unconstrained) system price, were introduced at the Scandinavian electricity exchange Nord Pool at the end of 2000. We empirically investigate the pricing of these CfDs over the period 2001 through 2006 and find that CfD prices contain significant risk premia. Their sign and magnitude, however, differ substantially between areas and delivery periods, because areas are subject to transmission congestion to a varying extent. While the relation between risk premia and time-to-maturity is not uniform for CfDs, there is a negative relation for implied area and system forwards, which can be explained by the relative hedging demand of market participants. In addition, we find that risk premia of CfDs and implied area forwards vary systematically with the variance and skewness of the underlying spot prices. This confirms both implications of the Bessembinder and Lemmon [Bessembinder, H., Lemmon, M.L., 2002. Equilibrium pricing and optimal hedging in electricity forward markets. Journal of Finance, 57, 1347-1382] model. (author)

  2. Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

  3. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  4. Nodal pricing in a coupled electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørndal, Endre; Bjørndal, Mette; Cai, Hong

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a pricing model for an electricity market with a hybrid congestion management method, i.e. part of the system applies a nodal pricing scheme and the rest applies a zonal pricing scheme. The model clears the zonal and nodal pricing areas simultaneously. The nodal pricing area is affected by the changes in the zonal pricing area since it is directly connected to the zonal pricing area by commercial trading. The model is tested on a 13-node power system. Within the area t...

  5. Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigerna, Simona; Bollino, Carlo Andrea

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side. - Highlights: • We model and estimate the demand of heterogeneous buyers in the electricity market. • Transmission line congestion creates welfare distortions in the market. • We derive optimal Ramsey prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market. • We compare optimal prices with historical ones showing how to improve welfare.

  6. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  7. The Relationship Between Electricity Price and Wind Power Generation in Danish Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    of competitive electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. The relationship between the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price) and the wind power generation in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price, the down regulation price...... and the up regulation price generally decreases when the wind power penetration in the power system increases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price for different wind power penetration are analyzed. The findings of this paper may be useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal...... bidding strategy and may be also useful for the optimal operation of modern power systems with high wind power penetrations....

  8. Changing Prices in a Weak Housing Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Dianqing

    2008-01-01

    @@ First, the adjustment in housing prices are in some cases just a regular marketing strategy. Speculation is restrained by macrocontrol policies, which naturally slows down a price increase.It is also predictable that some unreasonably high prices will need to be readjusted.

  9. Energy markets and price relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergendahl, P.A.

    1986-10-01

    The aim of the report is to elucidate the way and extent of the dependence of the price of different energy species of one another and particularly of crude oil prices. Oil, coal and natural gas can substitute each other at many applications. The prices are dependent on mining, processing and transporting. Forecasting of prices and future trends are discussed

  10. Electricity prices in the Finnish retail market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehto, Eero

    2011-01-01

    This study focuses, firstly, on the pricing of electricity in the Finnish retail market. In particular, the impact of the ownership structure on prices is tested empirically. Secondly, the influence of low-cost electricity sources on retail prices is considered. The question about whether the average fuel costs rather than the wholesale price determine the retail prices is thus addressed. The supply side behaviour characterised may explain the passivity of client activity in the seemingly competitive Finnish market. - Research highlights: → Ownership has a strong impact on retail prices in the Finnish electricity market. → Locally owned companies' rates are 5-15 per cent lower than investor owned companies' rates. → Own low cost acquisition of electricity helps local firms to keep prices at low levels.

  11. Forecasting prices and price volatility in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    We develop a stochastic model for long term price forecasting in a competitive electricity market environment. It is demonstrated both theoretically and through model simulations that non-stochastic models may give biased forecasts both with respect to price level and volatility. In the paper, the model concept is applied on the restructured Nordic electricity market. It is specially in peak load hours that a stochastic model formulation provides significantly different results than an expected value model. (author)

  12. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  13. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  14. Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-Based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Michael D. Noel

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in retail gasoline markets for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct retail pricing patterns: 1. cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that, while seldom documented empirically, resemble those of Maskin & Tirole[1988]. Using a Markov switching regression, I estimate the prevalence of patterns and the structural characteristics of the cycles. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of ...

  15. Dynamic pricing for demand response considering market price uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...

  16. The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pechan, Anna; Eisenack, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    Thermoelectric power plants depend on cooling water drawn from water bodies. Low river run-off and/or high water temperatures limit a plant's production capacity. This problem may intensify with climate change. Our study quantifies the impact of forced capacity reductions on market prices, production costs, consumer and producer surplus, as well as emissions by means of a bottom-up power generation system model. First, we simulate the German electricity spot market during the heat wave of 2006. Then we conduct a sensitivity study that accounts for future climatic and technological conditions. We find an average price increase of 11% during the heat wave 2006, which is even more pronounced during times of peak demand. Production costs accumulate to an additional but moderate 16 m. Due to the price increase, producers gain from the heat wave, whereas consumers disproportionately bear the costs. Carbon emissions in the German electricity sector increase during the heat wave. The price and cost effects are more pronounced and increase significantly if assumptions on heat-sensitive demand, hydropower capacity, net exports, and capacity reductions are tightened. These are potential additional effects of climate change. Hence, if mitigation fails or is postponed globally, the impacts on the current energy system are very likely to rise. Increases in feed-in from renewable resources and demand-side management can counter the effects to a considerable degree. Countries with a shift toward a renewable energy supply can be expected to be much less susceptible to cooling water scarcity than those with a high share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. - Highlights: • We quantify the impact of thermal capacity reductions on the electricity market. • German heat wave 2006 caused moderate rise in production costs. • Capacity reductions have substantial impact on prices and raise producer surplus. • Impacts on prices, production cost and surplus amplify under climate

  17. Competition in electricity spot markets. Economic theory and international experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David

    1998-09-01

    This publication gives a survey of economic theory and international experience connected to electricity spot markets. The main purpose is to consider the attempts that have been made to apply economic theory and empirical methods to the analysis of electricity markets, and to evaluate them in light of theoretical considerations and empirical evidence. The publication describes in simple terms the basic pool pricing mechanism, and experience with pools in a number of countries. It is worth emphasizing that it is not the purpose to treat in extensive detail the structure of electricity pools around the world. Key factors of the markets in England and Wales, Norway and Australia are described in order to allow for a comparison of design issues and evaluation of competitive performance. 80 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  18. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    This publication by the National Energy Board is part of a continuing program of assessing applications for long-term natural gas export licences. The market-based procedure used by the Board is based on the premise that the marketplace will generally operate in a way that will ensure that Canadian requirements for natural gas will be met at fair market prices. The market--based procedure consists of a public hearing and a monitoring component. The monitoring component involves the on-going assessment of Canadian energy markets to provide analyses of major energy commodities on either an individual or integrated commodity basis. This report is the result of the most recent assessment . It identifies factors that affect natural gas prices and describes the functioning of regional markets in Canada. It provides an overview of the energy demand, including recent trends, reviews the North American gas supply and markets, the natural gas pricing dynamics in Canada, and a regional analysis of markets, prices and dynamics in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In general, demand growth outstripped growth in supply, but natural gas producers throughout North America have been responding to the current high price environment with aggressive drilling programs. The Board anticipates that in time, there will be a supply and demand response and accompanying relief in natural gas prices. A review of the annual weighted average border price paid for Alberta gas indicates that domestic gas users paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices converged, suggesting that Canadians have had access to natural gas at prices no less favourable than export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems such as NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had significant impact on the pricing of natural gas. These systems, by providing timely information to market participants. enables them to manage price

  19. Energy at what price? Energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.; Amic, E.; Darmois, G.

    2006-01-01

    In 2005, the whole world had to stand a real energy shock due to the rise of oil, gas and electricity prices. The perspective of a possible shortage, even at the prospect of several decades, has led to a deep change of the world energy market. In this context, this book supplies a clear and didactical presentation of the mechanisms of petroleum, gas and electricity markets, with their advantages and limitations. At the time of a globalization of economy, the book analyzes the consequences of markets deregulation on the energy prices and tries to answer several main questions: why such a price volatility? Who will take the risk of investing now? Will the energy actors of the present day concentration be in a dominating position? Content: 1 - energy, markets and energy markets; 2 - crude oil and petroleum product markets; 3 - gas markets; 4 - electric power markets; 5 - perspectives. Glossary. Index. (J.S.)

  20. Estimación del precio de oferta de la energía eléctrica en Colombia mediante inteligencia artificial || Estimating the Spot Market Price Bid in Colombian Electricity Market by Using Artificial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hurtado Moreno, Laura

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Uno de los sectores económicos estratégicos más importantes en cualquier economía es el Mercado de Energía Mayorista, cuya característica fundamental es que se trata de un mercado oligopolístico, provocado por la barrera de entrada que supone tener economías de escala. De esta manera, los agentes pueden presentar comportamientos estratégicos que contribuyen a la maximización de sus utilidades, los cuales se ven reflejados en la oferta diaria del precio y de la cantidad de energía por hora en cada una de sus centrales de generación. En este trabajo se presenta una metodología para la estimación de los precios diarios a los que ofertan la energía que producen los principales recursos hídricos y térmicos en Colombia. Se emplean dos herramientas de Inteligencia Artificial: la Lógica Difusa y las Redes Neuronales. Dichas técnicas resultan ser parcialmente efectivas para seguir las tendencias de dichos precios. También se comparan los resultados con los de modelos autorregresivos, que resultan ser inapropiados para el caso de estudio. || One of the most important economic strategic sectors in any economy is the electricity market. Its main feature is its oligopolistic character favoured by the returns to scale which act as an entry barrier. As a result, the energy generators can use their power market in order to increase their benefits through the daily offered price and quantity of energy for each of their power plants. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the daily offered price of the most important power stations in Colombia (hydraulic and thermal by applying artificial intelligence techniques: Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks. Such techniques are found to be partially useful particularly for price tendencies. It also compares the results with autoregressive models that turned out inappropriate for the case of study.

  1. An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Duarte Venslauskas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory.  We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI.  We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships.  The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices.  In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks.

  2. Market Makers' Supply and Pricing of Financial Market Liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Pu; Starr, Ross M.

    2000-01-01

    This study models the bid-ask spread in financial markets as a function of asset price variability and order flow. The market-maker is characterized as passively accepting orders to buy and to sell a security at the market's prevailing price (plus or minus half the bid-ask spread). The bid-ask spread adjusts to cover market-makers' average costs. The bid-ask spread then varies positively with: the security's price volatility, the volatility of order flow, and the absolute value of the market-...

  3. The market equilibrium of OPEC's pricing mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, S.; Madan, V.

    1990-01-01

    At least twice a year, oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet in Vienna or Geneva to adjust the group's output ceiling to eliminate discrepancies between the market price and the target price. If the market imbalances are persistent, then the target price is also adjusted. Often, OPEC's members differ in their assessment of future market demand for their oil and, thus, present different views on the need to adjust the output celing and the target price. During periods of downward pressures on oil prices, the high absorbers of capital (i.e., oil revenues) prefer a speedy downward adjustment to the celing, while the low absorbers are slow to react. However, in the event of tightening markets, the low absorbers usually respond by exceeding their quotas before agreeing on a ceiling adjustment. Therefore, OPEC nations have different desirable speeds of adjustment. This paper specifies and examines the stability of OPEC's pricing mechanism. It presents a strategy which would enable the organization to achieve a target price-based market equilibrium with increased rapidity through the appropriate manipulation of the speed of output ceiling adjustment. This strategy is applied using data on market and target prices, actual output, and output ceilings for the first quarter of 1991. The main finding is that, given the target price, OPEC's equilibrium market demand is significantly lower than the assigned output ceiling. Production should have been reduced by at least 3 million barrels a day for OPEC to realize the $21 per barrel target price in the first quarter of 1991. Seasonal factors can cause slight variations in this output but would not bring out compatibility between the target price and the output ceiling within a reasonable period of time unless OPEC follows an activist policy of output adjustment. 3 figs., 1 tab

  4. PRICE FAIRNESS PERCEPTION ON ASIATIC MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Elisabeta Ioanăș

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to show the perception of the price fairness in the literature. I made a small comparison between the European and the Asiatic markets. Price is an important key of the marketing mix. On the daily basis, the price fairness is perceived differently from one user to another. Also other researchers states that the price has a great influence on the perceived value and on buying intentions for a product and through this paper can be seen that the culture influences th...

  5. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, S.-E.; Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available...... to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted...

  6. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange

  7. Real-time Pricing in Power Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette; Schwenen, Sebastian

    We examine welfare e ects of real-time pricing in electricity markets. Before stochastic energy demand is known, competitive retailers contract with nal consumers who exogenously do not have real-time meters. After demand is realized, two electricity generators compete in a uniform price auction...... to satisfy demand from retailers acting on behalf of subscribed customers and from consumers with real-time meters. Increasing the number of consumers on real-time pricing does not always increase welfare since risk-averse consumers dislike uncertain and high prices arising through market power...

  8. Real-time Pricing in Power Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette; Schwenen, Sebastian

    We examine welfare eects of real-time pricing in electricity markets. Before stochastic energy demand is known, competitive retailers contract with nal consumers who exogenously do not have real-time meters. After demand is realized, two electricity generators compete in a uniform price auction...... to satisfy demand from retailers acting on behalf of subscribed customers and from consumers with real-time meters. Increasing the number of consumers on real-time pricing does not always increase welfare since risk-averse consumers dislike uncertain and high prices arising through market power...

  9. Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Olson, A.; Horowitz, I.

    2006-01-01

    An extensive North American pipeline grid that physically integrates individual natural-gas markets, in conjunction with economic ties binding the California markets to those at Henry Hub, Louisiana and the New York mercantile exchange via an array of financial instruments, suggests that the spot prices at Henry Hub will impact those in California. We verify the suggestion via a partial-adjustment regression model, thus affirming that California traders can exploit the cross-hedging opportunities made available to them via market integration with Henry Hub, and that they can accurately forecast the price they will have to pay to meet future demand based solely on the price of futures at Henry Hub and the price of a California natural-gas basis swaps contract. (author)

  10. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung; Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ((delta)s t ) and futures price change ((delta)f t ), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  11. Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

    2015-01-01

    –Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....

  12. Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

    approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....

  13. Pricing the Innovation for Market Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dănut Tiberius Epure

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available The factors that influence pricing strategy change over the life of a product concept. The market defined by a product concept passes through four phases: development, growth, maturity, and decline. Briefly, the changes in the strategic environment over those phases are as follows: Market development. Buyers are price insensitive because they knowledge of the product’s benefits. Both production and not a threat since the potential gains from market development exceed those from competitive rivalry. Pricing strategy signals the product’s value to potential buyers, but buyer education remains the key to sales growth.

  14. Price dynamics in European petroleum markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wlazlowski, Szymon; Giulietti, Monica; Binner, Jane; Milas, Costas

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses horizontal and vertical price dynamics in the EU petroleum markets. The results indicate that the cross-country price differentials have significant impact on the local price adjustments. We investigate the cross-national price spill-overs and find that the extent of the welfare transfer due to asymmetric price transmission, when analysed in a cross-country setting, is less pronounced than claimed in previous contributions in this area. We also find empirical evidence, although indirect, for the politically charged concept of 'fuel tourism', using a pan-European cross-product time series dataset. (author)

  15. Price Leadership and Unequal Market Sharing : Collusion in Experimental Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, Peter T.

    2014-01-01

    We consider experimental markets of repeated homogeneous price-setting duopolies. We investigate the effect on collusion of sequential versus simultaneous price setting. We also examine the effect on collusion of changes in the size of each subject's market share in case both subjects set the same

  16. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  17. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... to generation combination portfolio. Proposed solutions should be able to tackle with emerging challenges which are mainly due to high variability and unpredictability of intermittent renewable resources. In this paper high price volatility will be introduced as an emerging challenge in wind dominant...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts...

  18. Price discovery in European natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Emma; Swieringa, John

    2013-01-01

    We provide the first high-frequency investigation of price discovery within the physical and financial layers of Europe's natural gas markets. Testing not only looks at short-term return dynamics, but also considers each security's contribution to price equilibrium in the longer-term. Results show that UK natural gas futures traded on the Intercontinental Exchange display greater price discovery than physical trading at various hubs throughout Europe. - Highlights: • We use intraday data to gauge price discovery in European natural gas markets. • We explore short and long-term dynamics in physical and financial market layers. • Results show ICE's UK natural gas futures are the main venue for price discovery

  19. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  20. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  1. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

  2. Nonlinear Pricing in Markets with Interdependent Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Shmuel S. Oren; Stephen A. Smith; Robert B. Wilson

    1982-01-01

    This paper provides a mathematical framework for modeling demand and determining optimal price schedules in markets which have demand externalities and can sustain nonlinear pricing. These fundamental economic concepts appear in the marketplace in the form of mutual buyers' benefits and quantity discounts. The theory addressing these aspects is relevant to a wide variety of goods and services. Examples include tariffs for electronic communications services, pricing of franchises, and royalty ...

  3. PRICES - PREREQUISITE OF MARKET DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA MARIA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Prices are the key points of transfer and interactions. Balance means knowing the real demand and adapting thier supply at its level and structure. In studying the prices, the knowledge of economic content and the mechanism of their formation in exchange process is a crucial prerequisites to accomplish the transition from theoretical foundations to practical foundations of concrete modalities, of pricing techniques. If demand can assimilate the production of considered enterprises, then the manufacturer is concerned to determine that level of production for which will get maximum profit, profitability threshold, elasticity of supply compared with the price, to choose the best outlet. Price depends on the intersection of demand and supply

  4. Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien

    2007-01-01

    Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

  5. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

  6. The volatility of stock market prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  7. Price discrimination in two-sided markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of a price discrimination strategy is an important tool in competition. It can hurt firms and benefit consumers in a one-sided market. However, in two-sided markets, its primary goal is to attract more agents or increase profits. Here, the performance of a second-degree price discrimination strategy in the context of duopoly two-sided platforms is analysed. Two exogenous variables, which include the discount rate and the price discrimination threshold, are used in order to examine whether the price discrimination strategy could help two-sided platforms achieve their objective, which is to maximise their market value. Three cases are considered, and we demonstrate that the price discrimination strategy cannot attract more agents and at the same time increase the profits; a lower price discrimination threshold cannot ensure larger markets shares; a higher discount rate is detrimental to the profit of a platform. However, this is good for its market shares. Moreover, discriminative pricing increases the competition.

  8. New Product Pricing in Quality Sensitive Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen A. Smith

    1986-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pricing a new product in a market having competing products of different qualities and market penetration levels, as measured by the cumulative number of units sold. Each customer type selects his optimal product based on maximizing consumer surplus. Pricing policies for a new product are determined for the seller based on cumulative profit maximization without discounting. An example is solved in detail for two demand function forms.

  9. Optimal Pricing Strategy in Marketing Research Consulting.

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Chun-Hao; Lee, Chi-Wen Jevons

    1994-01-01

    This paper studies the optimal pricing scheme for a monopolistic marketing research consultant who sells high-cost proprietary marketing information to her oligopolistic clients in the manufacturing industry. In designing an optimal pricing strategy, the consultant needs to fully consider the behavior of her clients, the behavior of the existing and potential competitors to her clients, and the behavior of her clients' customers. The authors show how the environment uncertainty, the capabilit...

  10. Synthetic river flow time series generator for dispatch and spot price forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    Decision-making in electricity markets is complicated by uncertainties in demand growth, power supplies and fuel prices. In Peru, where the electrical power system is highly dependent on water resources at dams and river flows, hydrological uncertainties play a primary role in planning, price and dispatch forecast. This paper proposed a signal processing method for generating new synthetic river flow time series as a support for planning and spot market price forecasting. River flow time series are natural phenomena representing a continuous-time domain process. As an alternative synthetic representation of the original river flow time series, this proposed signal processing method preserves correlations, basic statistics and seasonality. It takes into account deterministic, periodic and non periodic components such as those due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The new synthetic time series has many correlations with the original river flow time series, rendering it suitable for possible replacement of the classical method of sorting historical river flow time series. As a dispatch and planning approach to spot pricing, the proposed method offers higher accuracy modeling by decomposing the signal into deterministic, periodic, non periodic and stochastic sub signals. 4 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  11. Dynamics of heating oil market prices in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indjehagopian, J.P.; Lantz, F.; Simon, V.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the German and French heating oil market and attempts to establish long- and short-term relationships between German and French monthly heating oil prices in dollars, the Rotterdam spot price for the same product and the DM/US$ and FF/US$ exchange rates during the period from January 1987 to December 1997. To model the market over the period under consideration, incorporating the Gulf War, we have used conventional unit root tests and sequential tests allowing structural changes. Long-term relationships, with shifts in regime detected by cointegration tests taking structural breaks into consideration, are estimated. The short-term dynamics defined by a vector error correction (VEC) mechanism is derived in a classic manner when in presence of a cointegrated VAR system. The econometric results obtained are commented on from an economic point of view. Weak exogeneity tests are performed and the conditional VEC model is deduced, enabling measurement of the instantaneous impact of variations in weakly exogenous exchange rates on variations in heating oil prices in Germany and France. Lastly, a study is made of the asymmetric reaction of domestic prices to positive and negative variations in exchange rates and the Rotterdam spot quotation. 25 refs

  12. An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janczura, Joanna [Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland); Weron, Rafal [Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

    2010-09-15

    One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

  13. An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janczura, Joanna; Weron, Rafal

    2010-01-01

    One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

  14. MASCEM: EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market integration and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Fernandes, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago

    2015-01-01

    . It is crucial to MASCEM to have the ability to simulate as many market models and player types as possible, thus enhancing the ability to recreate the electricity markets reality in its maximum possible extent. This paper presents the EPEX Spot Day-Ahead market integration in MASCEM. EPEX Spot SE's mission...

  15. Price signals in the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Which price signals should be given to the players in the power market to promote a socio-economic power supply in the short term and the long term? In a model with perfect competition, without problems involving delivery quality, and with free scalable capacity in both transmission and production, price signals that reflect marginal losses and shortage of transmission capacity are all that is needed. Stepwise investments create a need for measures that are specific to the situation. Price signals reflecting delivery reliability are probably too weak today. Market power may create a need for greater transmission capacity, but gives no reason for new price signals. Tariffs that reduce installed capacity weakens delivery quality and increases the probability of market power

  16. Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachmann, Georg

    2008-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the European electricity sector has led to a common European market for electricity. Based on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of wholesale electricity prices in 2002-2006, we reject the assumption of full market integration. For several pairs of countries, the weaker hypothesis of (bilateral) convergence is accepted based on unit root tests (KPSS and ADF) and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations. This indicates that the efforts to develop a single European market for electricity were so far only partially successful. We show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross-border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials. Empirically, our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature. (author)

  17. Insurer Market Power Lowers Prices In Numerous Concentrated Provider Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffler, Richard M; Arnold, Daniel R

    2017-09-01

    Using prices of hospital admissions and visits to five types of physicians, we analyzed how provider and insurer market concentration-as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-interact and are correlated with prices. We found evidence that in the range of the Department of Justice's and Federal Trade Commission's definition of a moderately concentrated market (HHI of 1,500-2,500), insurers have the bargaining power to reduce provider prices in highly concentrated provider markets. In particular, hospital admission prices were 5 percent lower and cardiologist, radiologist, and hematologist/oncologist visit prices were 4 percent, 7 percent, and 19 percent lower, respectively, in markets with high provider concentration and insurer HHI above 2,000, compared to such markets with insurer HHI below 2,000. We did not find evidence that high insurer concentration reduced visit prices for primary care physicians or orthopedists, however. The policy dilemma that arises from our findings is that there are no insurer market mechanisms that will pass a portion of these price reductions on to consumers in the form of lower premiums. Large purchasers of health insurance such as state and federal governments, as well as the use of regulatory approaches, could provide a solution. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  18. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

  19. Research on spot power market equilibrium model considering the electric power network characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chengmin; Jiang, Chuanwen; Chen, Qiming

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium is the optimum operational condition for the power market by economics rule. A realistic spot power market cannot achieve the equilibrium condition due to network losses and congestions. The impact of the network losses and congestion on spot power market is analyzed in this paper in order to establish a new equilibrium model considering the network loss and transmission constraints. The OPF problem formulated according to the new equilibrium model is solved by means of the equal price principle. A case study on the IEEE-30-bus system is provided in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

  20. Pricing of electricity tariffs in competitive markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, J.; Raesaenen, M.

    1999-01-01

    In many countries electricity supply business has been opened for competition. In this paper we analyze the problem of pricing of electricity tariffs in these open markets, when both the customers' electricity consumption and the market price are stochastic processes. Specifically, we focus on regular tariff contracts which do not have explicit amounts of consumption units defined in the contracts. Therefore the valuation process of these contracts differs from the valuation of electricity futures and options. The results show that the more there is uncertainty about the customer's consumption, the higher the fixed charge of the tariff contract should be. Finally, we analyze the indication of our results to the different methods for estimating the customer's consumption in the competitive markets. Since the consumption uncertainties enter into the tariff prices, the analysis indicates that the deterministic standard load curves do not provide efficient methods for evaluating the customers' consumption in competitive markets

  1. Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, T.J.; Heo, Eunnyeong

    2000-01-01

    Unlike many studies of commodity inventory behavior, this paper estimates a model with endogenous spot and forward prices, inventories, production, and net imports. Our application involves markets for refined petroleum products in the United States. Our model is built around the supply and demand for storage. We estimate the model using Generalized Method of Moments and perform dynamic, simultaneous simulations to estimate the impacts of supply and demand shocks. Supply curves for the industry are inelastic and upward sloping. High inventory levels depress prices. Inventories fall in response to higher sales, consistent with production smoothing. Under higher input prices, refiners reduce their stocks of crude oil but increase their product inventories, consistent with cost smoothing. In some cases, imports of products are more variable than production or inventories. 25 refs

  2. A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkoulas, John T.; Chakraborty, Atreya; Ouandlous, Arav

    2012-01-01

    We test whether the spot price of crude oil is determined by stochastic rules or exhibits deterministic endogenous fluctuations. In our analysis, we employ both metric (correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponents) and topological (recurrence plots) diagnostic tools for chaotic dynamics. We find that the underlying system for crude oil spot prices (i) is of high dimensionality (no stabilization of the correlation dimension), (ii) does not exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and (iii) is not characterized by the recurrence property. Thus, the empirical evidence suggests that stochastic rather than deterministic rules are present in the system dynamics of the crude oil spot market. Recurrent plot analysis indicates that volatility clustering is an adequate, but not complete, explanation of the morphology of oil spot prices. - Highlights: ► We test whether the spot price of crude oil exhibits deterministic chaos. ► We employ both metric and topological diagnostic tools for chaos. ► Stochastic rules appear to govern the temporal evolution of oil prices. ► Volatility clustering explains the morphology of oil prices largely, but not entirely.

  3. Detecting price manipulation in the financial market

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Yi; Li, Yuhua; Coleman, Sonya; Belatreche, Ammar; McGinnity, T. M.

    2014-01-01

    Market abuse has attracted much attention from financial regulators around the world but it is difficult to fully prevent. One of the reasons is the lack of thoroughly studies of the market abuse strategies and the corresponding effective market abuse approaches. In this paper, the strategies of reported price manipulation cases are analysed as well as the related empirical studies. A transformation is then defined to convert the time-varying financial trading data into pseudo-stationary time...

  4. Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

    2016-01-01

    electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

  5. Price formation on the Swedish woodfuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillring, B.

    1999-01-01

    The Swedish woodfuel market has grown rapidly in the past ten years. Government policy has strongly supported this development and environmental taxes on fossil fuels have been introduced. This has favoured untaxed biofuels, i.e. woodfuels, in the district heating sector where the market has grown very rapidly. This study on price formation is based on the earlier knowledge of the market and shows that the woodfuel market has seen a dramatic increase combined with falling prices. Unrefined wood fuels demonstrate an annual volume increase of 13% while real prices have fallen at an annual rate of 5% during the first half of the 1990s. Total taxes paid by the district heating sector have increased during the period studied and of which taxes for fossil fuels have increased dramatically during the past ten years. However, tax as a share of the total fuelmix supplying the district heating sector has been stabilised over time. The primary reason for this development is the replacement of the highly taxed fossil fuels in the supplied fuels with untaxed biofuels. Companies have reacted very quickly and rationally from an economic point of view to the rising costs of fossil fuels, substituting an increasing share with biofuels. For the future, many utilities have the capacity to adapt to new changes in costs resulting from either changes in fuel prices, changes in fuel taxes or changes in prices on heating or electricity markets. (author)

  6. An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Raviv, Eran; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał

    2014-01-01

    In this comprehensive empirical study we critically evaluate the use of forecast averaging in the context of electricity prices. We apply seven averaging and one selection scheme and perform a backtesting analysis on day-ahead electricity prices in three major European and US markets. Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts of individual methods for deriving more accurate predictions, however, the performance is not uniform across the considered markets and periods. In particular, equally weighted pooling of forecasts emerges as a simple, yet powerful technique compared with other schemes that rely on estimated combination weights, but only when there is no individual predictor that consistently outperforms its competitors. Constrained least squares regression (CLS) offers a balance between robustness against such well performing individual methods and relatively accurate forecasts, on average better than those of the individual predictors. Finally, some popular forecast averaging schemes – like ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) – turn out to be unsuitable for predicting day-ahead electricity prices. - Highlights: • So far the most extensive study on combining forecasts for electricity spot prices • 12 stochastic models, 8 forecast combination schemes and 3 markets considered • Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts for deriving more accurate predictions • Methods that allow for unconstrained weights, such as OLS averaging, should be avoided • We recommend a backtesting exercise to identify the preferred forecast averaging method for the data at hand

  7. Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

  8. Derivative markets, speculation and oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Lasserre, F.; Pierru, A.

    2010-01-01

    Recent movements in oil prices have been ascribed by a number of analysts and political leaders not to market fundamentals but to the speculative positions taken by financial investors in derivatives markets. Various economists including Nobel Prize Paul Krugman believe however that the constitution of stocks is a necessary element for speculation, a feature that was not very evident during the sudden price increase in 2008; but these points of view are not entirely incompatible. Various explanations can be put forward, among which the most important is demand inertia. On the very short run, demand price elasticity is significantly lower than that usually calculated for the short term, which can significantly reduce the impact - on stocks - of a temporary price increase provoked by financial investors' behavior. (authors)

  9. Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ajrapetova, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    General content: Current methods of estimation of cost of capital in the emerging markets are often neglecting various contradictions with the essentials of the model structure and assumptions. As the result of such imprecisions, the cost of equity is often understated (overstated). This thesis will attempt to assess current level of emerging market integration, liquidity and concentration. This will be followed by evaluation of traditional and alternative models for estimation of cost of equ...

  10. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  11. How market structure drives commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

    2017-11-01

    We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

  12. Markets in real electric networks require reactive prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.W.

    1996-01-01

    Extending earlier seminal work, the author finds that locational spot price differences in an electric network provide the natural measure of the appropriate internodal transport charge. However, the problem of loop flow requires different economic intuition for interpreting the implications of spot pricing. The Direct Current model, which is the usual approximation for estimating spot prices, ignores reactive power effects; this approximation is best when thermal constraints create network congestion. However, when voltage constraints are problematic, the DC Load model is insufficient; a full AC Model is required to determine both real and reactive spot prices. 16 figs., 3 tabs., 22 refs

  13. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  14. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Koichiro

    This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

  15. Risks versus savings in the international spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karalus, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes the international spot market, some of its risks and difficulties, and examples of the ways potential savings can be realized. Fuel cycle goods and services available in the international spot market include uranium as U 3 O 8 , natural UF 6 , enriched UF 6 , conversion services, and enriching services

  16. Model for calculation of spot prices and uncertainties integration; Modelo de calculo de precos spot e integracao de incertezas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraiva, J. Tome [Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Porto (Portugal). E-mail: jsaraiva@inescn.pt

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents a model for systematic and structured impact evaluation of the uncertainties existent in the load powers, on the spot prices on the various bars of a electric power system. The application developed allows the specification of load power as inaccurate trapezoidal numbers and adopts the DC model for the representation of system exploration conditions. Considering the influence of the loss power on the formulation of a spot prices spatial distribution, the model allows the inclusion of transmission network loss estimation. The results correspond to appurtenance functions of spot prices in each barm, consisting of a discrete set of ordered pais which integrates the spot price values and the appurtenance or compatibility level, in accordance with Fuzzy Sets.

  17. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  18. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  19. Russian oil prices: courting the world market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  20. Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Drachal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents results from modelling spot oil prices by Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA. First, based on a literature review and availability of data, the following oil price drivers have been selected: stock prices indices, stock prices volatility index, exchange rates, global economic activity, interest rates, supply and demand indicators and inventories level. Next, they have been included as explanatory variables in various DMA models with different initial parameters. Monthly data between January 1986 and December 2015 has been analyzed. Several variations of DMA models have been constructed, because DMA requires the initial setting of certain parameters. Interestingly, DMA has occurred to be robust to setting different values to these parameters. It has also occurred that the quality of prediction is the highest for the model with the drivers solely connected with the stock markets behavior. Drivers connected with macroeconomic fundamental indicators have not been found so important. This observation can serve as an argument favoring the hypothesis of the increasing financialization of the oil market, at least in the short-term period. The predictions from other, slightly different modelling variations based on DMA methodology, have happened to be consistent with each other in general. Many constructed models have outperformed alternative forecasting methods. It has also been found that normalization of the initial data, although not necessary for DMA from the theoretical point of view, significantly improves the quality of prediction.

  1. The price of fixed income market volatility

    CERN Document Server

    Mele, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...

  2. Secondary market prices and Mexico's Brady Deal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Claessens, C.A.M.F.

    1993-01-01

    Analyzes wether or not the use of official funds in debt reduction packages as in Mexico's 1989 Brady deal is tantamount to a creditor bailout. Review of events; option-pricing approach to sovereign debt valuation; market valuation of the Brady debt package; positive impact of Brady plan on debt

  3. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  4. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  5. Modifying nodal pricing method considering market participants optimality and reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Soofiabadi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a method for nodal pricing and market clearing mechanism considering reliability of the system. The effects of components reliability on electricity price, market participants’ profit and system social welfare is considered. This paper considers reliability both for evaluation of market participant’s optimality as well as for fair pricing and market clearing mechanism. To achieve fair pricing, nodal price has been obtained through a two stage optimization problem and to achieve fair market clearing mechanism, comprehensive criteria has been introduced for optimality evaluation of market participant. Social welfare of the system and system efficiency are increased under proposed modified nodal pricing method.

  6. Consumption, price asymmetries, transmission congestion and market power in the Norwegian electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirza, Faisal Mehmood

    2011-07-01

    The results from this dissertation add to the ongoing debate in Norway if NordPool spot should shift from zonal price scheme to the nodal price scheme. Academically, the individual papers provide a number of theoretical frameworks that are helpful in analyzing electricity markets around the world. The PhD dissertation investigates price determination process in the Norwegian electricity market and evaluates if the market works at perfectly competitive level or producers exercise market power to drive prices away from their marginal cost of production. Using aggregate hourly electricity supply and demand data, the empirical analysis carried out in this dissertation leads to the following conclusions. 1. Market power at the generation level is not a major problem for the Norwegian electricity market. On average, when we consider the events of binding transmission capacity as exogenous, the average markup in economic terms is small and has not exceeded one percent. 2. Producers can use the information on available transmission capacity between different price areas in Norway and restrict their output to induce transmission congestion in their price area to exercise market power. Average markup during such instances has remained high at 20 percent. 3. Transmission capacity in Norway is not being optimally utilized as import capacity remains at its lowest level during the hours when southern Norway is generally a net importer of electricity, when compared to the rest of the hours of the day. 4. A segment of electricity retailers in the Norwegian electricity market exercises its market power by controlling the pass-through of price changes in the wholesale market to the retail market for variable price contract consumers. The pass-through is asymmetric, whereby cost increase is transmitted completely and quickly when compared to the case of cost decrease. 5.The Daylight saving time (Summer time) policy is helpful in ensuring energy efficiency. It results in electricity

  7. Promoting nuclear energy: market price or regulated tariffs? - 5042

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Percebois, J.

    2015-01-01

    Because of its negative effects, the scheme for aiding renewable energies presently in force in Europe is likely to penalise investments in nuclear energy. The F.I.T. system is a costly mechanism and a source of perverse effects as a switching of the merit order curve on the spot electricity market (with sometimes negative prices). Restoring an equity and 'equal opportunity' for nuclear energy in Europe needs to implement a 'Contract for Differences' scheme for nuclear energy, like the model now gaining favour in the U.K. The contract for differences signed between EDF and the UK government means that if the wholesale price that EDF secures for Hinckley's power falls below the index-linked preset value, the difference will be covered by payments from the UK government. It appears that nuclear power has weakened in Europe by the system of guaranteed purchase prices for renewable energies. Moreover this system is costly. New fairer rules must be implemented in the market. Either the market is left on its own to send the signals to all investors (including renewable energies), or a minimum of regulation is introduced in order to limit the costly surges of under and over capacity. But in the latter case it is necessary to treat all the energy sources in an equal way and guarantee the nuclear industry that it will also recover its fixed costs over the long term)

  8. Price discovery in restructured electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dempster, Gregory [Hampden-Sydney College, Box 132, Hampden-Sydney, VA 23943 (United States); Isaacs, Justin [Hampden-Sydney College, Hampden-Sydney, VA 23943 (United States); Smith, Narin [Southern Company (United States)

    2008-05-15

    We empirically investigate the degree of integration that existed prior to the cost increases that caused emergency conditions in the Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC), particularly California, during the summer of 2000. Evidence from Granger causality tests and common features analysis over the period from December 1994 to September 1999 indicates a moderate degree of integration among these markets. However, price effects throughout the region were often only unidirectional, did not exhibit the characteristics of perfect substitutability, and were significantly influenced by institutional changes in the California market. Most importantly, our research suggests that these markets were not as highly integrated as earlier research had indicated. (author)

  9. Stock Market Prices and the Market for Corporate Control

    OpenAIRE

    Armour, John; Cheffins, Brian Robert

    2016-01-01

    The manner in which hostile takeovers have historically been executed has just begun to receive serious academic attention. Similarly, while the literature on the accuracy and determinants of share prices is voluminous, there has been little systematic historical analysis of when and how modern standards of share price efficiency took shape. This article addresses both subjects in depth to ascertain the extent to which developments in the market for corporate control may have been associated ...

  10. How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Raouf Sheybani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

  11. Markets, prices and regulation in energetic activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Percebois, Jacques

    2015-09-01

    The author first outlines some fundamental characteristics of the different energy world markets (oil, natural gas, coal, electricity). He outlines their availability, locations, and different main geographical areas. Then, he discusses the relationships between costs and prices in which intervene external costs, taxes, feed-in tariffs, national regulations, incentives for consumers. He discusses the issue of regulation of some energy activities, i.e. how State may or may not intervene on the markets, how competition may influence the market, how activities can thus be divided (production, transport, distribution) with implications and consequences for prices. He finally outlines concerns about the future financing of investments required to face tomorrow's needs

  12. PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice Karahan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

  13. Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloster, Kristian

    2003-01-01

    This thesis will describe a method for an arbitrage-free evaluation of forward and futures contracts in the Nordic electricity market. This is a market where it is not possible to hedge using the underlying asset which one normally would do. The electricity market is a relatively new market, and is less developed than the financial markets. The pricing of energy and energy derivatives are depending on factors like production, transport, storage etc. There are different approaches when pricing a forward contract in an energy market. With motivation from interest rate theory, one could model the forward prices directly in the risk neutral world. Another approach is to start out with a model for the spot prices in the physical world, and then derive theoretical forward prices, which then are fitted to observed forward prices. These and other approaches are described by Clewlow and Strickland in their book, Energy derivatives. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price, and then derive theoretical forward prices. I use a generalization of the multifactor Schwartz model with seasonal trends and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity. This continuous-time model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the multi-factor Schwartz model. Then one can specify arbitrage-free prices for forward and futures based on the Schwartz model. The result from this procedure is a joint spot and forward price model in both the risk neutral and physical market, together with knowledge of the equivalent martingale measure chosen by the market. This measure can be interpreted as the market price of risk, which is of interest for risk management. In this setup both futures and forward contracts will have the same pricing dynamics, as the only difference between the two types of contracts is how the payment for the

  14. Gas markets and pricing in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashayekhi, A.; Law, P.L.

    1992-01-01

    The issues of natural gas market development and pricing are reviewed within the context of specific Asian countries where gas plays an important role. Within Southeast Asia, Malaysia's Penninsular Gas Utilization project signals a new era in pipeline gas trade with an agreement to supply Singapore. There is now also an opportunity to extend Malaysian pipeline supplies to Thailand, which is actively seeking natural gas from neighboring countries. The prospects for LNG are dominated by the high growth markets of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. LNG trade has tended to bind the region together through close economic ties. Due to the increasing damand within the supplier countries themselves and their close neighbors, it is likely that LNG consumers will increasingly need to look beyond their traditional Southeast Asian suppliers in the future, perhaps to higher cost LNG schemes outside the region. In Southeast Asia, reduction of the high volumes of associated gas currently flared from the Bombay High Field in India will not only make big contribution to meeting the country's future gas demand, but will also prove environmentally beneficial. Pakistan, in order to control its developing gas markets, has raised gas prices to consumers substantially, with beneficial effects on supply and demand. In Bangladesh, economic pricing has been important in allocating gas resources efficiently. At both the regional and global level, the link between gas use and the environment is becoming stronger, raising the question of relating gas and energy prices to environmental costs and benefits

  15. Inter ISO Market Coordination by Calculating Border Locational Marginal Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BABIC, A. B.

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the methodology for solving Locational Marginal Price (LMP differences (inconsistency of LMPs that arise at the boundary buses between separate power markets is proposed. The algorithm developed enables us to obtain consistent LMP values at the boundary buses between interconnected ISOs. A Primal-Dual Interior Point based optimal power flow (OPF is applied, with complete set of power system physical limit constraints, to solve a regional spot market. The OPF is implemented such that producer and consumer behaviors are modeled simultaneously, while the welfare is maximized. In this paper a generalized methodology for multiple ISOs case is proposed and later it is practically applied on two interconnected independent entities. The algorithm for approximation of cost coefficients of generators and dispatchable loads for neighboring ISOs is proposed. The developed algorithm enables participating ISOs to obtain LMPs at the boundary buses with other interconnected ISOs. By controlling interchange of electric power at the scheduled level, regional spot markets are resolved eliminating possible exercise of market power by individual interconnected ISOs. Results of proposed methodology are tested on the IEEE 118-bus power system.

  16. Markets and pricing for interruptible electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gedra, T.W.; Varaiya, P.P.

    1993-01-01

    The authors propose a market for interruptible, or callable, forward contracts for electric power, in which the consumer grants the power supplier the right to interrupt a given unit of load in return for a price discount. The callable forward contracts are traded continuously until the time of use. This allows recourse for those customers with uncertain demand, while risk-averse consumers can minimize their price risk by purchasing early. Callable forward contracts are simple in form, and can be directly incorporated into the utility's economic dispatch procedure

  17. The Impact of Market Reform Programmes on Coffee Prices in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (ICA) and liberalization of coffee marketing in Tanzania on coffee prices. The motivation for this ... indirect effects of market reforms on the level of prices, their variance ..... This strategy could be achieved through dedicated support to farmers to ...

  18. Price transmission and market integration: a test of the central ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Price transmission and market integration: a test of the central market ... cassava production but to improvements in marketing efficiency of the traditional food market ... Improvements in road network and other communication infrastructure will ...

  19. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Southwest Markets and the New Mexico counties of Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt and Lea. Desert Southwest The..., Hudspeth and El Paso, all New Mexico counties except those included in the West Texas market, all counties... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93...

  20. Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contin-Pilart, Ignacio; Correlje, Aad F.; Blanca Palacios, M.

    2009-01-01

    The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990, the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that 'liberalization' was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. By 1998, prices were left to the 'free' market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results suggest that gasoline retail prices respond symmetrically to increases as well as to decreases in the spot price of gasoline both over the period of price regulation (January 1993-September 1998) and over the period of free market (October 1998-December 2004). However, once the ceiling price regulation was abolished, cooperation emerged between the government and the major operators, Repsol-YPF and Cepsa-Elf, to control the inflation rate. This resulted in a slower rate of adjustment of gasoline retail prices when gasoline spot prices went up, as compared with the European pattern. Finally, the Spanish retail margin was by the end of our timing period of analysis, as in the starting years after the abolishment of the state monopoly, above the European average. This pattern confirms our political economic hypothesis, which suggests that the Spanish government and the oil companies were working together in reducing the inflation, in periods of rising oil and gasoline prices. It is also inferred that explaining the pricing pattern in energy markets may require different hypothesis than the classical perspective, involving just firms taking advantage of market power

  1. Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contin-Pilart, Ignacio [Departamento de Gestion de Empresas, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona (Spain); Correlje, Aad F. [Section Economics of Infrastructures, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft (Netherlands); Clingendael International Energy Programme (Netherlands); Blanca Palacios, M. [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990, the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that 'liberalization' was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. By 1998, prices were left to the 'free' market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results suggest that gasoline retail prices respond symmetrically to increases as well as to decreases in the spot price of gasoline both over the period of price regulation (January 1993-September 1998) and over the period of free market (October 1998-December 2004). However, once the ceiling price regulation was abolished, cooperation emerged between the government and the major operators, Repsol-YPF and Cepsa-Elf, to control the inflation rate. This resulted in a slower rate of adjustment of gasoline retail prices when gasoline spot prices went up, as compared with the European pattern. Finally, the Spanish retail margin was by the end of our timing period of analysis, as in the starting years after the abolishment of the state monopoly, above the European average. This pattern confirms our political economic hypothesis, which suggests that the Spanish government and the oil companies were working together in reducing the inflation, in periods of rising oil and gasoline prices. It is also inferred that explaining the pricing pattern in energy markets may require different hypothesis than the classical perspective, involving just firms taking advantage of market power. (author)

  2. Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mei; Wang, Yaqi; Gao, Cuixia

    2016-11-01

    Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.

  3. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

  4. Building PV markets: customers and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, Reinhard

    2002-01-01

    What makes market deployment strategies for PV successful? A group of specialists (from IEA Task 7) has been looking at the progress made so far. Here, in the first of two articles based on their report, the author presents some of their findings, including benefits and barriers for defined groups of customers; how customers for PV systems are identified, and what they are willing to pay. It also looks at current prices in different countries, and their possible trends. (Author)

  5. Price jumps on European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen; Novotný, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2014), s. 10-22 ISSN 2214-8450 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : stock markets * price jump indicators * non-parametric testing Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  6. Marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levaggi, Rosella; Orizio, Grazia; Domenighini, Serena; Bressanelli, Maura; Schulz, Peter J; Zani, Claudia; Caimi, Luigi; Gelatti, Umberto

    2009-10-01

    Internet and e-commerce have profoundly changed society, the economy, and the world of health care. The web offers opportunities to improve health, but it may also represent a big health hazard since it is a basically unregulated market with very low consumer protection. In this paper we analyze marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies (OPs). Our analysis shows that OPs use strategies that would be more suitable for a commodity market than for drugs. These strategies differentiate according to variety (brand or generic), quality, quantity, and target group. OPs are well aware that the vacuum in the legislation allows them to reach a target of consumers that pharmacies cannot normally reach, such as those who would like to use the drug without consulting a physician (or, even worse, against the physician's advice). In this case, they usually charge a higher price, reassure the users by minimizing on the side effects, and induce them to bulk purchase through sensible price discounts. This analysis suggests that the selling of drugs via the Internet can turn into a "public health risk", as has been pointed out by the US Food and Drug Administration.

  7. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  8. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-01-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  9. The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2011-01-01

    I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices. - Research Highlights: → The 2007-2009 spike and collapse in oil prices is caused by a combination of market fundamentals and speculative expectations. → The rise is caused by an unexpected hiatus in non-OPEC oil production, not a sudden increase in demand. → The role of speculation is suggested by an increase in oil inventories, which reverses a twenty year period of declines, a decoupling between spot and futures prices, which violates the law of one price, and a breakdown of empirical models of oil prices based solely on market fundamentals. → Speculative expectations affect oil prices via noise traders, who create a risk that deters rational arbitrageurs from betting against them.

  10. Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

  11. IPO Pricing with Bookbuilding and a When-Issued Market

    OpenAIRE

    Stomper, Alex; Aussenegg, Wolfgang; Pichler, Pegaret

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the German IPO pricing process which combines bookbuilding with a liquid pre-IPO when-issued market. We find no partial adjustment phenomenon, as has been documented for U.S. IPOs. We thus find no evidence that bookbuilding provides information for IPO pricing, beyond the information that is required to set preliminary price ranges. Once price ranges are set, when-issued trading commences and indicates how IPOs should be priced in the primary market. However, the evidence ...

  12. MARKET SIGNALS IN VALUE-BASED PRICING PREMIUMS AND DISCOUNTS

    OpenAIRE

    Feuz, Dillon M.

    1999-01-01

    There is concern in the beef industry that present marketing practices may be impending the transmission of economic signals from consumers to producers. Presently, fed cattle may be sold on a show list, pen-by-pen, or on an individual head basis, and may be priced using live weight, dressed weight, or grid or formula pricing. Market signals are more likely to reach producers if cattle are priced individually. Current value-based pricing are discussed. Three grid pricing systems are evaluated...

  13. Implicit price of mussel characteristics in the auction market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thong Tien

    2012-01-01

    This study explores desired and undesired characteristics of mussels in wholesale market by applying hedonic price analysis. Transaction data in auction market in Yerseke, the Netherlands, was used to estimate linear and semi-log price models. Meat content and size count, which are measured...... of raw mussels are significant discounting factors on the price. The study also investigates the impact of farming locations and seasons on the price and the price trend during the period of 2002–2009....

  14. Price formation and market mechanisms in world nuclear fuel markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neff, T.L.

    1991-01-01

    The structure of world markets for uranium, UF6 and enriched uranium product (EUP) have changed greatly since the 1970s. In the old model, firms specializing in mining, conversion, enrichment and fabrication played independent and sequential steps in the making of nuclear fuel. The great majority of users dealt directly with primary suppliers. Competition took place among suppliers at each stage of the fuel cycle and price formation occurred independently for each stage. Long-term contracts directly between primary supplier and end user dominated, whether for U3O8, conversion, enrichment or fabrication. The old model is effectively gone. uranium producers compete with traders, some of whom can offer a much larger menu of products and terms than primary suppliers. Where once there was a straight engineering-like sequence of processing from uranium to EUP for end use, today things are often reversed and far more complicated, with de-enrichment, de-conversion, loans, swaps, and other transactions. Those able to bring financial and entrepreneurial skills to bear on this complexity have an advantage. Long-term contracts between primary producers and end users no longer dominate new transactions, especially in the critical role of price formation - the process of determining or discovery of the market price. These changes have raised the question of whether participants in the nuclear fuel market need, or could benefit from, new institutional mechanisms, specifically some sort of formal exchange or commodity market

  15. 78 FR 9330 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-08

    ... Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: The... bona fide cotton spot markets in order to assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and Promotion Act. Updated bona fide spot market definitions will allow for published spot quotes to consider...

  16. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94... CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets for...

  17. Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis Africana (guill. ... select five markets based on the presence of traders selling the commodity in the markets ... T- test result showed that Prosopis africana seed trade is profitable and ...

  18. Price formation and intertemporal arbitrage within a low-liquidity framework. Empirical evidence from European natural gas markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nick, Sebastian

    2013-08-15

    In this study, the informational efficiency of the European natural gas market is analyzed by empirically investigating price formation and arbitrage efficiency between spot and futures markets. Econometric approaches are specified that explicitly account for nonlinearities and the low liquidity framework of the considered gas hubs. The empirical results reveal that price discovery takes place on the futures market, while the spot price subsequently follows the futures market price. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence of significant market frictions hampering intertemporal arbitrage. UK's NBP seems to be the hub at which arbitrage opportunities are exhausted most efficiently, although there is convergence in the degree of intertemporal arbitrage efficiency over time at the hubs investigated.

  19. Economic Dispatch of Hydrogen Systems in Energy Spot Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Nørgård, Per Bromand

    2015-01-01

    of energy spot markets. The generic hydrogen system is comprised of an electrolysis for hydrogen production, a hydrogen storage tank and a fuel cell system for cogeneration of electricity and heat. A case study is presented with information from practical hydrogen systems and the Nordic energy markets...

  20. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term net market price means— (a) except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the sales price, or...

  1. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a producer...

  2. Regional prices in the Swedish wood-fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillring, Bengt

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyses, through a statistical survey, the regional distribution of prices on the commercial wood-fuel market for district heating plants and the pellets market for single family houses. The existing market watch of the national Swedish wood-fuel market has been developed for both refined and unrefined wood-fuels. The last five years the trend for wood-fuel prices on the district heating market has been stable, with a slight increase in the price of refined wood-fuels. However, on the young and fast-growing household market for pellets, prices have increased 12% during the last three years. The distribution of prices for northern, middle and southern Sweden indicates differences within 5% between the regions. The limited price difference between Swedish regions are a product of a large domestic supply and an increasing trade among regions in Europe, putting pressure on prices. Regional differences, mirrored as transportation distances and local production costs are key factors that could explain this regional price variation. However, the development of a commercial market with less regulation tends to level out prices. Consumers on the household market purchase small quantities and do not have the same possibility as district heating companies to take advantage of the oversupply opportunity and thus face a faster price development. The weaker market position of the consumers also tends to give homogeneous prices between regions of the residential sector. (Author)

  3. Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Longstaff, Francis A

    2005-01-01

    Many important classes of assets are illiquid in the sense that they cannot always be traded immediately. Thus, a portfolio position in these types of illiquid investments becomes at least temporarily irreversible. We study the asset-pricing implications of illiquidity in a two-asset exchange economy with heterogeneous agents. In this market, one asset is always liquid. The other asset can be traded initially, but then not again until after a “blackout†period. Illiquidity has a dramatic e...

  4. Regulatory restrictions and energy: The impact of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gius, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to estimate the effects of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices. Although the Jones Act pertains to the domestic shipment of all types of goods, the present study will only focus on gasoline. The present study will use data obtained from the Energy Information Administration in order to determine if the price of gasoline declined during Jones Act waiver periods. Looking at daily prices, the results regarding the effects of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices are mixed. When using a t-test, the results indicated either that there was no significant difference or that prices were actually higher during the waiver periods. When using a first-order autoregressive model, it was found that prices were lower during the 2005 waiver period but higher during the 2012 waiver. Given these inconclusive results, it is not possible to conclude that the Jones Act restrictions contribute to higher gasoline prices. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices. • I use daily price data over a seven year period. • I find that the results are mixed. • For the Hurricane Katrina waiver, prices fell, but for the Hurricane Sandy waiver, prices rose

  5. The value of price transparency in residential solar photovoltaic markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O’Shaughnessy, Eric; Margolis, Robert

    2018-06-01

    Installed prices for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have declined significantly in recent years. However price dispersion and limited customer access to PV quotes prevents some prospective customers from obtaining low price offers. This study shows that improved customer access to prices - also known as price transparency - is a potential policy lever for further PV price reductions. We use customer search and strategic pricing theory to show that PV installation companies face incentives to offer lower prices in markets with more price transparency. We test this theoretical framework using a unique residential PV quote dataset. Our results show that installers offer lower prices to customers that are expected to receive more quotes. Our study provides a rationale for policies to improve price transparency in residential PV markets.

  6. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  7. Performance Targets and External Market Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Allan; Friis, Ivar; Vámosi, Tamás S.

    2012-01-01

    the implementation of external market information in target setting – well known in transfer pricing, relative performance evaluation, beyond budgeting, target costing, piece rates systems and value based management – relate to challenging motivation and information problem. The analysis and discussion of those...... problems, in particular those related to accounting for the internal performance (that are going to be compared with the external target), calculating the ‘inside’ costs and defining controllability, contributes to the management accounting as well as the piece-rate literature.......In this paper we explore the processes of ‘bringing the market inside the firm’ to set performance targets and benchmark production workers productivity. We analyze attempts to use external suppliers’ bids in target setting in a Danish manufacturing company. The case study illustrates how...

  8. Fruit and Vegetable Prices and Perceptions in Mercalaspalmas Wholesale Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Rodríguez-Feijoó

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the behavior of fruit and vegetable prices in a wholesale market. Its aims are: a to examine price behavior and changes; and b to identify statistically significant factors in the perception of prices and to quantify the effect of these factors on the market price. For this purpose, daily data were obtained on modal prices at the Mercalaspalmas wholesale market from 2006 until mid-2010. The results obtained show there is a similar degree of flexibility in price increases and decreases, and show the product to be the determinant element in setting prices. There was found to be a strong degree of price permanence, in the sense that changes take place slowly and following a lag. The following significant factors were identified in the perception of prices: the length of time a price has remained unchanged in the market; the period during which a product has been absent from the market; the quantities traded at a given price; and the index of market prices. However, the quantitative effect of this body of factors on the perceived price is very limited.

  9. Tiered co-payments, pricing, and demand in reference price markets for pharmaceuticals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herr, Annika; Suppliet, Moritz

    2017-01-01

    Health insurance companies curb price-insensitive behavior and the moral hazard of insureds by means of cost-sharing, such as tiered co-payments or reference pricing in drug markets. This paper evaluates the effect of price limits –below which drugs are exempt from co-payments– on prices and on

  10. Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

    2007-01-01

    Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

  11. Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. Andrade

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

  12. Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. García-Hiernaux (Alfredo); D.E. Guerrero (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes the market integration process of nominal prices, develops a model to analyze market integration, and presents a test of increasing market integration. A distinction is made between the economic concepts of price conver- gence in mean and variance. When both types of

  13. Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. García-Hiernaux (Alfredo); D.E. Guerrero (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we analyse the market integration process of the relative price distribution, develop a model to analyze market integration, and present a formal test of increasing market integration. We distinguish between the economic concepts of price convergence in mean and in

  14. European bond markets: do illiquidity and concentration aggravate price shocks?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boermans, M.A.; Frost, Jon; Steins Bisschop, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of market liquidity and ownership concentration of European bonds on price volatility during periods of market stress. Specifically, using security-by-security data from euro area investors we examine if market illiquidity and concentrated holdings explain the large price shocks

  15. Comparison of power exchanges. Liquidity and prices in spot transactions; Stromboersen im Vergleich. Liquiditaet und Preise im Spothandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, Manuel

    2012-07-01

    The liberalization of the world's electricity markets in the past 20 years provided new challenges for operators of power distribution systems as well as producers: Especially in Europe, the integration of renewable energy sources is another challenge. The increasing importance of wind energy, solar energy and hydro power as a CO{sub 2} free energy source raises the question which market design is the best for the description of the constant fluctuations of these energy sources. As a result of liberalization, two market models are distinguished: the stock market model and the pool model. The author of the contribution under consideration analyzes empirically the power exchanges EEX (European energy Exchange, Leipzig, Federal Republic of Germany), Nordpool (Lysaker, Norway) and PJM (Norristown, Pennsylvania, USA). The parameters are determined which significantly affect the prices and the liquidity in the spot market.

  16. NUKEM adjusts price definitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October-November 1994 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. During this period, there were five deals in the spot concentrates market, five deals in the medium and long-term market, one deal in the conversion market, and two deals in the enrichment market. Restricted prices strengthened while unrestricted prices held steady. Price re-definitions were also announced

  17. Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX pricesMarket leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

  18. What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

    2011-01-01

    The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

  19. Incomplete Financial Markets and Jumps in Asset Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crès, Hervé; Markeprand, Tobias Ejnar; Tvede, Mich

    A dynamic pure-exchange general equilibrium model with uncertainty is studied. Fundamentals are supposed to depend continuously on states of nature. It is shown that: 1. if financial markets are complete, then asset prices vary continuously with states of nature, and; 2. if financial markets...... are incomplete, jumps in asset prices may be unavoidable. Consequently incomplete financial markets may increase volatility in asset prices significantly....

  20. Asymmetric Price Transmission in Indonesia's Wheat Flour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Varela, Gonzalo J.; Taniguchi, Kiyoshi

    2014-01-01

    Data indicate that its domestic price in Indonesia has been increasing regardless of movements in the international price of wheat. A test for asymmetric price transmission from international wheat to domestic wheat flour markets is conducted using an error correction model and find the presence of asymmetric price transmission. The upward adjustment in the domestic price of wheat flour is much faster than its adjustment downward when it deviates from long-run equilibrium. Our results are rob...

  1. Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...

  2. Did the expiration of retail price caps affect prices in the restructured Texas electricity market?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Linhong; Zarnikau, Jay

    2009-01-01

    On January 1, 2007, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market became the first restructured market in the US to completely remove caps on the prices which could be charged to residential energy consumers by the retailers associated with the traditional or incumbent utility service providers. Our analysis suggests that the expiration of the price-to-beat (PTB) price caps may have led to a reduction in the average prices charged by competitive retail electric providers (REPs). (author)

  3. The Nordic electric power market. A study of the market characteristics, price factors and the competitive environment of the Nordic power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keskikallio, J.; Lindholm, J.

    2003-06-01

    power derivatives (since the TSO may affect the area price directly) and the use of bottleneck payments (income resulting from grid congestion). The supervision of spot and derivatives trading has been sporadic, and suspected cases with abuse of market power or market manipulation have not been processed in a satisfactory manner. Competent regulatory authorities (ex. RATA) should be empowered to extend supervision to encompass all market participants and be able to impose effective sanctions. Terms and regulations should be the same for market participants based in any country within the Nordic power market. (orig.)

  4. Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

  5. OIL PRICES AND THE KUWAITI AND THE SAUDI STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.

  6. Prices and tariffs in a liberalized electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rijkers, F.; Wals, A.; Battjes, C.; Scheepers, M.

    2000-01-01

    First, it is described how prices and tariffs were determined before the introduction of the liberalization. Next, a brief overview is given of the transfer to the liberalized market and how the situation is on this market at present. Special attention is paid to the pricing of electricity in a free market, which is determined by competition between electricity producers in the Netherlands and abroad. Finally, a comparison is made between the expected prices and tariffs in a liberalized market and the prices before the liberalization

  7. Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herguera, Inigo

    2000-01-01

    The performance of the futures and the spot market for electricity in England and Wales (EW) and in the Nordic countries have significant differences in terms of volumes traded and evolution of prices. Even though the institutional arrangements show significant differences and the data collected has important limitations we observe in EW for 1990-199 that as the coverage via bilateral contracts diminished, spot prices tended to increase, there was higher price volatility and an increasing number of plants were declared unavailable. In the NordPool, by contrast, market structure is more distributed, the bilateral contract price has tended to smooth the volatility in the spot price and a very diverse pattern behavior of prices has been observed. We interpret these observations as additional support in favor of the theoretical result by and Vila (Journal of Economic Theory 59 (1993) 1), but hint at the possibility of strategies by the firms that can diminish the welfare enhancing properties of this new bilateral market. (Author)

  8. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  9. Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald F. Flora; Wendy J. McGInnls

    1992-01-01

    Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model...

  10. [Competition and prices in the Mexican pharmaceutical market].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Salazar, Raúl E; González-Marín, Eloy; Carbajal-de Nova, Carolina

    2008-01-01

    The forms of market competition define prices. The pharmaceutical market contains submarkets with different levels of competition; on the one hand are the innovating products with patents, and on the other, generic products with or without trade names. Innovating medicines generally have monopolistic prices, but when the patents expire prices drop because of competition from therapeutic alternatives. The trade name makes it easier to maintain monopolistic prices. In Mexico, medicine prices in the private market are high--according to aggregated estimates and prices for specific medicines--which reflect the limitations of pharmaceutical market competition and the power of the trade name. The public segment enjoys competitive prices using the WHO strategy for essential medicines on the basis of the Essential List.

  11. Market structure and price adjustment in the U.S. wholesale gasoline markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oladunjoye, Olusegun

    2008-01-01

    The issue of sticky prices in U.S. wholesale gasoline market is re-examined allowing for the effect of market structure due to increased market concentration caused by mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures which started in the late 1990s in the U.S. oil industry. I investigate the effects of market structure on the pattern of price adjustment based on the notion that increased market concentration leads to downward price stickiness and asymmetric short run price adjustment in the transmission of crude price changes to wholesale gasoline price. I find that market concentration has an insignificant asymmetric effect on the speed of price adjustment but a significant asymmetric effect on short run price adjustments in the response of wholesale gasoline prices to crude price shocks in three U.S. wholesale markets. Furthermore, the signs on the coefficients of market concentration effects on price dynamics in the models support the assertion that increased market concentration leads to downward price stickiness in only one of the three markets examined. Overall, the results indicate that market structure does not have a strong effect on the dynamics of price adjustment. (author)

  12. Proceedings: 1996 EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing: Managing the transition to market-based pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    This report presents the proceedings from the EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing. Topics discussed include: power transmission pricing; retail pricing; price risk management; new pricing paradigms; changes from cost-based to a market-based pricing scheme; ancillary services; retail market strategies; profitability; unbundling; and value added services. This is the leading abstract. Papers are processed separately for the databases

  13. Price Formation and Competition in the Swedish Electricity Market. Main findings of ER 2006:13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-11-01

    The Nordic electricity market can be divided into a Nordic wholesale market - the producer market - and the, national, retail markets. Nord Pool organises a 24-hour market for the physical trade of electricity, the spot market. Nord Pool also has a market place for so-called financial trade where players can (among other things) hedge themselves against price risks. Thus, the trade at Nord Pool represents the basis for trading with electricity throughout the entire Nordic market. In addition to the trade at Nord Pool, there is also bilateral trading between buyers and sellers. The report has been arranged as follows. Initially the functioning of the wholesale market is analysed, the issues addressed include the price formation in the spot market, the functioning of the financial market, as well as the price development in the spot market. The section ends with an analysis of the competitive situation in the Nordic wholesale market with a focus on Sweden. The next section focuses on how a potential introduction of Elspot areas in Sweden might affect the conditions for competition. The third section looks at certain conditions in the Swedish retail market and on certain consequences for households and electricity-intensive industry due to the price increases in recent years. The report concludes with the Energy Markets Inspectorate's deliberations on the need for measures to be undertaken in the Swedish and Nordic electricity market. The concentration on the Nordic electricity market is at a level where the authorities monitoring competition need to counteract changes that lead to further concentration. The present structure of the market, with an increasingly high concentration and co-ownership of power stations, also places demands on the authorities responsible for monitoring competition to implement measures designed to detect and to prevent the possible abuse of market power. There is a substantial need for research on competition and efficiency on the

  14. Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

    2004-06-01

    The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

  15. Price transparency on the market for automotive fuels. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meindert, L.; Van Schijndel, M.; Volkerink, B.

    2011-05-01

    The objective of this study is to answer the main question: which bottlenecks may obstruct the road to up-to-date, reliable and fully market covering price comparison services for the Dutch market for automotive fuels. [nl

  16. A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Michael; Powell, Warren B.; Sircar, Ronnie

    2013-01-01

    Energy companies with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands face the problem of hedging load and price risk. We propose a joint model for load and price dynamics, which is motivated by the goal of facilitating optimal hedging decisions, while also intuitively capturing the key features of the electricity market. Driven by three stochastic factors including the load process, our power price model allows for the calculation of closed-form pricing formulas for forwards and some options, products often used for hedging purposes. Making use of these results, we illustrate in a simple example the hedging benefit of these instruments, while also evaluating the performance of the model when fitted to the Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • We present a structural model for electricity spot prices in the ERCOT market. • Relationships between power price and factors such as load and gas price are studied. • Seasonal patterns and load-dependent spikes are shown to be well captured. • Closed-form results for prices of forwards, options and spread options are derived. • We demonstrate the effectiveness of hedging power demand with forwards and options

  17. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  18. 7 CFR 27.95 - Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations. 27.95 Section 27.95 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE... and Differences § 27.95 Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations. Every bona fide spot market...

  19. Generic market design issues highlighted: prices soar in Alberta as capacity tightens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1999-01-01

    Many Alberta consumers, alarmed by enormous price increases, are asking questions about whether electric sector restructuring in the province has progressed far enough. The average cost of power in Alberta's spot market in October were $70.46 per MWH above the $20-$30 that consumers had paid in recent years. It is widely admitted that the high prices reflect an increasingly tight supply situation in which construction of new capacity has not kept pace with growth in demand. It is a standard case of what happens when the market design focuses on promoting short-term price competition to the detriment of creating compeition in the forward markets. A debate has been produced in Alberta with major power consumers calling for a breakup of the three major generators, and the government suggesting that such intervention would be like returning to the days before competition when government tried to control everything. Competition may not work unless divestiture is revisited. There is a hard time seeing the light at the end of the restructuring tunnel for industrial consumers. Ontario's Market Design Committee struggled with the same issue, believing that an industry composed of many smaller independent generating companies was the only way to achieve lasting and meaningful price competition. The best price protection for consumers is an active and competitive investment market for new capacity, and Alberta should not repeat Ontario's mistake and leave the work until price problems develop

  20. Los spots factor, esencial del marketing político

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María de Jesús Origel Gutiérrez

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available EI objetivo del presente trabajo es demostrar que en las elecciones presidenciales de julio de 2000, la forma de hacer política en México se modificó al introducir en las campanas electorales el marketing político y nuevas estrategias de comunicación, en especial los spots televisivos

  1. Pricing behavior of USA exporter in wheat international market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibowo, R. P.; Sumono; Iddrisu, Y.; Darus, M.; Sihombing, L. P.; Jufri

    2018-02-01

    The number of wheat producing countries is changing over time. It is expected the change in wheat supply will lead world wheat market become more competitive and reduce market power of major exporter country. This paper tries to identify and examined the degree of market power on wheat international market for USA by using the Pricing to Market (PTM) method. USA is the biggest producer and exporter in wheat market. The PTM method found that USA impose noncompetitive strategy by applying price discrimination and apply market power to their importer country.

  2. On the Effects of Suggested Prices in Gasoline Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer); M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis article analyzes the role of suggested prices in the Dutch retail market for gasoline. Suggested prices are announced by large oil companies with the suggestion that retailers follow them. There are at least two competing rationales for the existence of suggested prices: they may

  3. Volatility Mean Reversion and the Market Price of Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes sources of derivative pricing errors in a stochastic volatility model estimated on stock return data. It is shown that such pricing errors may reflect the existence of a market price of volatility risk, but also may be caused by estimation errors due to a slow mean reversion in

  4. Marketing Theory Applied to Price Discrimination in Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talaga, James; Haley, Jean Walstrom

    1991-01-01

    Discussion of discriminatory pricing by journal publishers and its effects on libraries focuses on six prerequisites for successful discriminatory pricing that are based on marketing theory. Strategies to eliminate some of these prerequisites--and therefore eliminate discriminatory pricing--are suggested, including the need to change the attitudes…

  5. On the Pricing of Options in Incomplete Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melenberg, B.; Werker, B.J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we reconsider the pricing of options in incomplete continuous time markets.We first discuss option pricing with idiosyncratic stochastic volatility.This leads, of course, to an averaged Black-Scholes price formula.Our proof of this result uses a new formalization of idiosyncraticy

  6. Interrelated factors influence of current stock market on pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Петрівна Мацелюх

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Impacts on market prices of securities are generalized. It is found that in the process of price determination and its implementation exist a system of interrelated factors of influence, which are divided into objective and subjective; internal and external; traditional and specific. It is proved that the impact of factors associated with risk pricing in financial assets

  7. Traders' strategy with price feedbacks in financial market

    OpenAIRE

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Nakano, Tohur; Takayasu, Misako; Takayasu, Hideki

    2003-01-01

    We introduce an autoregressive-type model of prices in financial market taking into account the self-modulation effect. We find that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of past prices. These feedbacks are responsible for the slow diffusion in short times, apparent trends and power law distribution of price changes.

  8. The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2008-01-01

    Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

  9. Price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emmanouilides, C.; Fousekis, P.; Grigoriadis, V.

    2014-06-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets (Spain, Italy and Greece). To this end, it utilizes monthly olive oil price data and the statistical tool of copulas. The empirical results suggest that prices are likely to boom together but not to crash together; this is especially true for the prices of the two most important players, Italy (importer) and Spain (exporter). The finding of asymmetric price co-movements implies that the three principal spatial olive oil markets in the EU cannot be thought of as one great pool. (Author)

  10. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  11. Determinants Of Equity Prices In The Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Usman Javaid

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of market variables on the movement stock prices in Pakistan. Asset pricing is considered as efficient if the asset prices reflect all available market information. This study examined the extent to which some "information factors" or market indices affect the stock price. A simple regression model has been used to develop a relation between the variables (stock prices, earnings per share, gross domestic product, dividend, inflation and KIBOR after testing for multi-collinearity among the independent variables. All the variables have shown positive correlation with stock prices with some exceptions of GDP and inflation. This study has enriched the existing literature while it would help policy makers who are interested in deploying instruments of monetary policy and other economic indices for the growth of the capital market.

  12. Upward Pricing Pressure in Two-Sided Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Affeldt, P.; Filistrucchi, L.; Klein, T.J.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Pricing pressure indices have recently been proposed as alternative screening devices for horizontal mergers involving differentiated products. We extend the concept of Upward Pricing Pressure (UPP) proposed by Farrell and Shapiro (2010) to two-sided markets. Examples of such markets are

  13. PRICE DISCRIMINATION AND MARKET POWER: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Smirnova

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the contemporary theoretical and empirical research in the field of impact assessment of market power and conclusions about the possibilities of the company to implement price discrimination in different market structures. The results of the analysis allow to evaluate current approaches to antitrust regulation of price discrimination.

  14. Best Practices for New Product Pricing: Impact on Market Performance and Price Level under Different Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Frambach, R.T.; Verhallen, T.M.M.

    2013-01-01

    To date, research on new product pricing has predominantly been approached as a choice between market skimming and penetration pricing. Despite calls for research that addresses other complexities in new product pricing, empirical research responding to these calls remains scarce. This paper

  15. ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET FACTORS AND REGIONAL PRICE DYNAMICS IN U.S. CATTLE MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Walburger, Allan M.; Foster, Kenneth A.

    1997-01-01

    Regional live cattle prices are decomposed into two components: (a) a trend common to all regional cattle price series and (b) regional deviations or price dynamics around that trend. Tests are developed to determine if market factors are related to the regional price deviations around a common trend. Slaughter volume, distance between a market and the next closest, and forward contract deliveries are significantly related to price deviations from the estimated common trend.

  16. Price Relationships in the Petroleum Market: An Analysis of Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Voelker, Teresa

    2001-08-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

  17. Price relationships in the petroleum market. An analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Volker, Teresa

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes

  18. Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, F.; Gjoelberg, O.; Voelker, T.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

  19. Price regulation and relative price convergence: Evidence from the retail gasoline market in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suvankulov, Farrukh; Lau, Marco Chi Keung; Ogucu, Fatma

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores price regulation and relative price convergence in the Canadian retail gasoline market. We use monthly data (2000–2010) on retail gasoline prices in 60 Canadian cities to investigate (i) whether the retail gasoline market in Canada has experienced a relative price convergence to the mean, which is expected, given the increased economic integration across Canadian provinces; and (ii) whether the introduction of price regulation mechanisms in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in July 2006 had any impact on the price convergence in these provinces. We use a nonlinear panel unit root test and find solid evidence that Canadian retail gasoline markets are well integrated across locales; however, the share of converging cities reveals a significant decline since July of 2006. The impact of price regulation on price convergence is mixed; our results indicate that since the enactment of the regulation in all New Brunswick cities (9) included in the dataset, gasoline prices converge to the national mean. Volatility of price is also significantly reduced. In contrast, in the wake of price regulation in Nova Scotia, all 6 cities of the province are non-convergent to the mean with increased volatility and overall price level. - Highlights: ► The paper examines price regulation and convergence of gasoline prices in Canada. ► Overall in 2000–2010 the Canadian retail gasoline market was well integrated. ► Price convergence across cities has significantly declined since July 2006. ► The impact of price regulation at province level on a price convergence is mixed. ► The paper relies on the most advanced nonlinear panel unit root test.

  20. Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Tomczyk, Jakub; Weron, Rafał

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of an extensive study on estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of electricity spot prices. We consider a battery of over 300 models, including monthly dummies and models based on Fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay. We find that the considered wavelet-based models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than the commonly used monthly dummies and sine-based models. This result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on the latter two types of LTSC models. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the forecasting of the long-term seasonal components • Over 300 models examined, including commonly used and new approaches • Wavelet-based models outperform sine-based and monthly dummy models. • Validity of stochastic models built on sines or monthly dummies is questionable

  1. Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anindya Sen

    2003-01-01

    There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

  2. Pricing and Reimbursement in U.S. Pharmaceutical Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Newhouse, Joseph Paul; Berndt, Ernst R.

    2010-01-01

    In this survey chapter on pricing and reimbursement in U.S. pharmaceutical markets, we first provide background information on important federal legislation, institutional details regarding distribution channel logistics, definitions of alternative price measures, related historical developments, and reasons why price discrimination is highly prevalent among branded pharmaceuticals. We then present a theoretical framework for the pricing of branded pharmaceuticals, without and then in the pre...

  3. A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

    2010-08-01

    We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

  4. Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark Hanley

    The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

  5. A Generalized Schwartz Model for Energy Spot Prices - Estimation using a Particle MCMC Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor; Wei, Wei

    structure. Instead of using various filtering techniques for splitting the two factors, as often found in the literature, we estimate the model in one step using an adaptive MCMC method with a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter. We fit the model to UK natural gas spot prices and investigate the importance......We propose an energy spot price model featuring a two-factor price process and a two-component stochastic volatility process. The first factor in the price process captures the normal variations; the second accounts for spikes. The two-component volatility allows for a flexible autocorrelation...... of spikes and stochastic volatility. We find that the inclusion of stochastic volatility is crucial and that it strongly impacts the jump intensity in the spike process. Furthermore, our estimation method enables us to consider both continuous and purely jump-driven volatility processes, and thereby assess...

  6. Feed-in tariff and market electricity price comparison. The case of cogeneration units in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uran, Vedran; Krajcar, Slavko

    2009-01-01

    In August 2007, the Government of the Republic of Croatia instituted a feed-in tariff system, requiring the Croatian Electricity Market Operator (HROTE) to off-take the electricity produced from renewable energy sources or cogeneration units fueled by natural gas. Analysis of the off-take electricity price range, which depends on the net electrical output and electricity market trends, indicates that it is more cost effective for cogeneration units greater than 1 MW to sell their electricity on the exchange market. This was confirmed by developing a mathematical model to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio of a cogeneration unit. This ratio represents the relation between the profit spread, i.e. the difference between the profit generated from selling the electricity on the exchange market and the profit made from dispatching the electricity to HROTE, as well as the total investment costs. The model can be applied for changes in certain parameters, such as the net electrical output, volatility and spot electricity price. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the most probable cost-effectiveness ratio and average future electricity price. Together with these two economic parameters and market price analysis, it is possible to calculate and calibrate an acceptable off-take electricity price. (author)

  7. Why are product prices in online markets not converging?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takayuki Mizuno

    Full Text Available Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers' clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers' preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.

  8. Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers’ clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers’ preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking. PMID:24015219

  9. Assessment of emission trading impacts on competitive electricity market price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, S.N.; Saxena, D.; Østergaard, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    analyzes the impact of electricity prices in the competitive electricity markets having a uniform market clearing price mechanism. Findings - It is found that the electricity prices depend on the system loading, generation mix, etc. at a particular hour. Various emission trading instruments are discussed...... side emission trading impact on electricity prices in the competitive power market. Design/methodology/approach - Various schemes are suggested and are being implemented to achieve this objective. It is expected that electricity price will increase due to imposition of emission taxes. This paper...... with a special emphasis on the European market. Research limitations/implications - Block bidding of the suppliers is considered whereas the demand is assumed to be inelastic. Originality/value - The emission trading impacts are analyzed on a simple example....

  10. Market Entry, Product Quality And Price Competition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathur Sameer

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available We study an entrant firm’s product quality choice and the price competition arising between the entrant and the incumbent firm. We show that the entrant firm should introduce a relatively higher (lower quality than the incumbent firm when the consumers’ valuation for quality is sufficiently large (small. We also study how the incumbent firm modifies its price in response to the ensuing price competition. We find that the incumbent firm should decrease its price. We also profile how the incumbent firm’s price non-linearly depends on consumers’ valuation for quality.

  11. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  12. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  13. Pricing and competition in the private dental market in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widström, E; Väisänen, A; Mikkola, H

    2011-06-01

    To investigate how the prices were set in private dental care, which factors determined prices and whether the recent National Dental Care Reform had increased competition in the dental care market in Finland. A questionnaire to all full time private dentists (n = 1,121) in the ten largest cities. Characteristics of the practice, prices charged, price setting, perceived competition and expectations for the practices were requested. The response rate was 59.6%. Correlation analysis (Pearson's) was used to study relationships between the prices of different treatment items. Linear regression analysis was used to study determinants of the price of a one surface filling. Most dentists' fee schedules were based on the price of a one surface filling and updated annually. Changes in practice costs calculated by the dentists' professional association and information on average prices charged on dental treatments in the country influenced pricing. High price levels were associated with specialisation, working in a group practice, working close to many other practices or in a town with a dental school. Less than half of the respondents had faced competition in dental services and price competition was insignificant. Price setting followed traditional patterns and private markets in dental services were not found to be very competitive.

  14. Uranium prices continue their upward climb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    This article is the uranium market overview for the month of February 1996. Prices were up in the spot market for U3O8, while conversion market prices and SWU prices remained steady. There were six trades in the U3O8 spot market, ten deals in the long-term U3O8 market, three deals in the conversion market, and a single deal in the SWU market

  15. Price determinants of the European carbon market and interactions with energy markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, Katja; Cludius, Johanna; Matthes, Felix [Oeko Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Diekmann, Jochen; Zaklan, Aleksandar [Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany); Schleich, Joachim [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    This report explores the determinants of short run price movements in the carbon market and their interaction with energy markets, in particular with the electricity market. Focusing on Phase 2 of the EU ETS we conduct econometric time series analysis based on continental EU and UK market data. Our findings suggest that market fundamentals have a dominant effect on the EUA price, but that non-fundamental factors may also play a role. We further found that the electricity price has a significant positive impact on the carbon price in the short run.

  16. TRADING ACTIVITY AND PRICES IN ENERGY FUTURES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aysegul Ates

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to examine trading activity and the relationship between futures trading activity by trader type and energy price movements in three energy futures markets –natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. We find that the level of net positions of speculators are positively related to future returns and in contrast net positions of hedgers are negatively related to futures price changes in all three markets. The changes in net positions are relatively more informative compare to the level of net positions in predicting price changes in related markets.

  17. Upward pricing pressure in two-sided markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Affeldt, P.; Filistrucchi, L.; Klein, T.J.

    2013-01-01

    Measuring upward pricing pressure (UPP) has recently been proposed by Farrell and Shapiro (2010) as an alternative screening device for horizontal mergers. We extend the concept of UPP to two-sided markets. Examples of such markets are the newspaper market, where the demand for advertising is

  18. Generation Companies’ Operative Strategies in the Spot Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tovar-Hernández J.H.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In traditional regulation the obligation to meet the consumer demand was assumed, this guaranteed to generation companies the full recovery of their costs. However, in order to achieve greater efficiency, reduce the price of electricity, meet the continuously growing electricity consumption, and equalize prices in different regions, a new structure of the electricity industry has been created, where electric energy is traded through a market. Generation company’s future cash flows depend on day to day market participation, in order to satisfy all of their financial and economic requirements. In this paper, future cash flows required to fulfill with economic and financial commitments by a generation company immerse in this new market structure are studied. For this purpose, future cash flows are considered to be dependent on a single asset: electricity. Several scenarios with different fuel prices are generated in order to estimate the generation company’s future cash flows. The response of the competing generation companies is taken into account at each scenario. The fuel price changes are modelled using a concurrent binary tree.

  19. Calculation and decomposition of spot price using interior point nonlinear optimisation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, K.; Song, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Optimal pricing for real and reactive power is a very important issue in a deregulation environment. This paper summarises the optimal pricing problem as an extended optimal power flow problem. Then, spot prices are decomposed into different components reflecting various ancillary services. The derivation of the proposed decomposition model is described in detail. Primary-Dual Interior Point method is applied to avoid 'go' 'no go' gauge. In addition, the proposed approach can be extended to cater for other types of ancillary services. (author)

  20. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  1. HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erlwein, Christina; Benth, Fred Espen; Mamon, Rogemar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices. (author)

  2. Price Overreactions in the Cryptocurrency Market

    OpenAIRE

    Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines price overreactions in the case of the following cryptocurrencies: BitCoin, LiteCoin, Ripple and Dash. A number of parametric (t-test, ANOVA, regression analysis with dummy variables) and non-parametric (Mann-Whitney U test) tests confirm the presence of price patterns after overreactions: the next-day price changes in both directions are bigger than after "normal" days. A trading robot approach is then used to establish whether these statistical anomalies can be exploited...

  3. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the 'big ones'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsikliras, Athanassios C; Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing.

  4. Duopoly price competition on markets with agricultural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Prášilová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A situation, in which two firms compete, is in the economic theory described by duopoly models. Market equilibrium on the duopoly market is formed in a reciprocal adjustment process of market prices and materialized market opportunities. The goal of the analysis is to find out whether the agricultural products market is significantly influenced by appearance of duopolies, what form they have and if they can fundamentally influence the price level of food. That food chain stores endeavour to mutually adapt food product prices is generally known; it is set especially by the inelastic demand for the mentioned goods on the side of consumers, i.e., by the need to demand basic food. Duopoly reactions to price competition in food chain stores are particularly strong in the case of commodities of milk and tomatoes, where the reactions and approximation of prices can be clearly seen. Based on statistical research it is obvious that the reactions are most reflected on sales of the food chain stores Billa and Albert. To identify specific reactions of price duopoly at retail chains the ANOVA statistical method was used. The firm’s duopoly behaviour as such on the food market need not be a subject for applying punishment from the antimonopoly bureau, if it does not have the cartel agreement character. An example can be the identical potato prices inquiry in the supermarkets of food chain stores.

  5. Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Mahoney, Amy; Denny, Eleanor

    2013-01-01

    Electricity market liberalisation has become common practice internationally. The justification for this process has been to enhance competition in a market traditionally characterised by statutory monopolies in an attempt to reduce costs to end-users. This paper endeavours to see whether a pool market achieves this goal of increasing competition and reducing electricity prices. Here the electricity market is set up as a sealed bid second price auction. Theory predicts that such markets should result with firms bidding their marginal cost, thereby resulting in an efficient outcome and lower costs to consumers. The Irish electricity system with a gross pool market experiences among the highest electricity prices in Europe. Thus, we analyse the Irish pool system econometrically in order to test if the high electricity prices seen there are due to participants bidding outside of market rules or out of line with theory. Overall we do not find any evidence that the interaction between generator and the pool in the Irish electricity market is not efficient. Thus, the pool element of the market structure does not explain the high electricity prices experienced in Ireland. - Highlights: • We consider whether a gross pool achieves competitive behaviour. • We analyse the Irish pool system econometrically. • Results indicate the Irish pool system appears to work efficiently. • Generators appear to be bidding appropriately

  6. Pharmaceutical pricing in Japan: market evidence for rheumatoid arthritis treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahlich, Jörg; Kamae, Isao; Sruamsiri, Rosarin

    2018-06-01

    Drug price setting is one of the key challenges faced by the Japanese health care system. This study aims to identify the determinants of drug price in Japan using the example of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment market. In order to compare prices across different products, we calculated prices per defined daily dose using WHO methodology. Price determinants were calculated both at launch and over time using IMS quarterly data on medicines approved for RA treatment in Japan from 2012 to 2015. Pharmaceutical pricing was modeled as a function of clinical and economic variables using regression analysis. For prices at the launch we found that differences in efficacy are not reflected in price differentials. We also report that the number of products within a molecule class had a negative effect on prices while originator drugs maintained higher prices. Although the existing pricing rules in Japan are very comprehensive they do not necessarily capture differences in product characteristics. The findings here support the notion that competitive forces are weak in highly regulated markets such as Japan.

  7. Intraday Price Discovery in Fragmented Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.R. Ozturk (Sait); M. van der Wel (Michel); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractFor many assets, trading is fragmented across multiple exchanges. Price discovery measures summarize the informativeness of trading on each venue for discovering the asset’s true underlying value. We explore intraday variation in price discovery using a structural model with

  8. Pricing and hedging in incomplete financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wurth, A.M.

    2009-01-01

    In the practical part, Chapter 4 considers numerical methods for indifference pricing in a stochastic volatility model. In Chapter 5, a feasible procedure is developed for calculating the CVaR price in unit-linked insurance products under an additional assumption. This assumption is relaxed in

  9. Research of factors of marketing pricing at domestic industrial enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    V.V. Bozhkova; I.M. Ryabchenko

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the article. The purpose of the article is research and systematization of factors of marketing pricing, which affect on realization of products of industrial enterprises.Works of domestic and foreign scientists on this issue were analysed. Traditionally pricing factors are classified into two groups: internal (controlled) and external (uncontrolled). Such division of factors is the first stage of pricing system analysis. On the second stage of analysis each of these groups is divi...

  10. Price convergence and market integration: evidence from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Chin; Habibullah, Muzafar Shah

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to assess the markets integration within Malaysia by examine the price convergence across Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. Disaggregate monthly price data for various types of goods or services in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak were utilized. Levin and Lin (1993) panel unit root test was employed to test whether the price of various types of goods among 3 provinces/states in Malaysia are stationary. The result of panel unit roots test showed that in...

  11. Setting Fair Prices – Fundamental Principle Of Sustainable Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Cătoiu, Iacob; Vrânceanu, Diana Maria; Filip, Alina

    2010-01-01

    In commercial area, the price has a major importance, being frequently considered among the main criteria used in buying decision process. Price fairness derives from equity theory and it is focused on assuring in a transaction a reasonable report between the customer’s sacrifice and the value offered by the seller. In three marketing experiments we have evaluated customers’ fairness perceptions of differential prices, this tactic being frequently used by sellers. One important finding was th...

  12. Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotný, Jan; Petrov, D.; Urga, G.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 24, June (2015), s. 66-92 ISSN 1386-4181 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : price jumps * foreign exchange markets * trading Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.726, year: 2015

  13. Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kozarski, R.

    2013-01-01

    In course of the analysis, we take advantage of extended market evidence in the model estimation and a more complex design to assess the model pricing and hedging performance. The pursuit of more empirically relevant frameworks pays-off is a more precise pricing. However, instead of developing

  14. Pareto Improving Price Regulation when the Asset Market is Incomplete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herings, P.J.J.; Polemarchakis, H.M.

    1999-01-01

    When the asset market is incomplete, competitive equilibria are constrained suboptimal, which provides a scope for pareto improving interventions. Price regulation can be such a pareto improving policy, even when the welfare effects of rationing are taken into account. An appealing aspect of price

  15. INTER-MARKET AND SEASONAL VARIATION IN PRICES: AN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    iya beji

    examined its seasonal price rise and analyzed the inter-market variation in prices of maize in the study area ... farmers are in business to sell their farm products at a fair returns or profit. ... from their investments and entrepreneurship. Therefore ...

  16. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  17. Tiered co-payments, pricing, and demand in reference price markets for pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, Annika; Suppliet, Moritz

    2017-12-01

    Health insurance companies curb price-insensitive behavior and the moral hazard of insureds by means of cost-sharing, such as tiered co-payments or reference pricing in drug markets. This paper evaluates the effect of price limits - below which drugs are exempt from co-payments - on prices and on demand. First, using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the new policy decreases prices by 5 percent for generics and increases prices by 4 percent for brand-name drugs in the German reference price market. Second, estimating a nested-logit demand model, we show that consumers appreciate co-payment exempt drugs and calculate lower price elasticities for brand-name drugs than for generics. This explains the different price responses of brand-name and generic drugs and shows that price-related co-payment tiers are an effective tool to steer demand to low-priced drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Technology for Price Management in Industrial Differential Product Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Orlova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article studies price behavior of oligopolies in industrial market where price competition is replaced by non-price competition. There is a developed technology for pricing management of the products of industrial enterprises, which, unlike the existing ones, takes into account the dynamics of changes in consumer preferences and changes in the pricing policy of the enterprise competitor and is based on usage of system dynamics models to simulate the financial and economic performance of enterprises and the fuzzy model for situational analysis and decisionmaking on changes in prices for the products. A pricing simulation model is offered. It is based on system-dynamic modeling method, which takes into account the complex cause-to-effect concatenation of factors on price such as product quality, cost, price competition, price elasticity of economic demand, competitors’ quantity of output and estimates the impact of changing factors of internal and external enterprise environment on the effectiveness of its activities.The simulation model allows us to conduct diverse experiments and analyze the impact of management decisions on the efficiency of the enterprise. Based on the fuzzy approach a price decision-making model is developed. It operates not only precise (numeric values, but also qualitative assessments of variables and provides an adequate use of logical relationships and the laws of the mutual influence of market and production and economic factors. Qualitative dependences, which establish the influence of external and internal factors on the price change, are identified as a result of the study of economic laws and legal conformity that are in the context of rapid economic change and market turbulence may not be strictly formalized and take the form of linguistic statements, which express the conditional relationship between the qualitative assessments of initial factors and changes in the relative price.

  19. Analysis of Price Fluctuations in an Artificial Market

    OpenAIRE

    鈴木, 卓弥; 工藤, 清

    2004-01-01

    We proposed simple mathematical model of the artificial market which consists of the many agents. Our model gives to each agent characteristic period for that interval he can entry into the stock market. They take the strategy "following the trend", i.e., "if it rises, he buys, and if it goes down, he sells". They take, however, opposite strategy "against market trend", if price change exceeds threshold value. The price change of the market depends on the total tradings of stocks. In our mode...

  20. Market place movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Historical financial data is provided for the uranium market in graphical and tabular form. Data include uranium spot price range, spot conversion price range, and seperative work units price range. Additional spot market information provided is natural uranium by buyers and sellers. Medium- and long-term data includes average natural uranium prices, and natural uranium market by buyers and sellers. Information on US contracted supply and demand and uranium production in Australia, Canada, and the US is given

  1. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  2. —The Stock Market's Pricing of Customer Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Ittner; David Larcker; Daniel Taylor

    2009-01-01

    A number of recent marketing studies examine the stock market's response to the release of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) scores. The broad purpose of these studies is to investigate the stock market's valuation of customer satisfaction. However, a key focus is on whether customer satisfaction information predicts long-run returns. We provide evidence on the market's pricing of ACSI information using a more comprehensive set of well-established tests from the accounting and finan...

  3. Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Sriram

    After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

  4. Hydropower planning coordinated with wind power in areas with congestion problems for trading on the spot and the regulating market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matevosyan, Julija; Olsson, Magnus; Soeder, Lennart

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a day-ahead planning algorithm for a multi-reservoir hydropower system coordinated with wind power is developed. Coordination applies to real situations, where wind power and hydropower are owned by different utilities, sharing the same transmission lines, though hydropower has priority for transmission capacity. Coordination is thus necessary to minimize wind energy curtailments during congestion situations. The planning algorithm accounts for the uncertainty of wind power forecasts and power market price uncertainty. Planning for the spot market and the regulating market is considered in the algorithm. The planning algorithm is applied to a case study and the results are summarized in the paper. (author)

  5. Importance of Electricity Transport Pricing in Liberalised Energy Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlgemuth, N.

    2001-01-01

    Electricity has traditionally been supplied by vertically integrated companies providing generation, transmission and distribution services. Consumers have purchased a bundled commodity - delivered electricity - and there has been no need to price the components individually. This is no longer the case in competitive and unbundled electricity markets. One of the outstanding issues in the restructuring of the electricity markets is the way in which transmission costs are translated into tariffs. The efforts to create a single European electricity market are difficult to reconcile due to different national network pricing approaches. The European Commission's draft regulation on conditions for access to the network for cross-border exchanges of electricity sets general principles for the pricing of international electricity exchanges. Nodal pricing provides incentives for an efficient use of generation and transmission assets. Experience shows that nodal pricing is workable, and its use may be expected to increase progressively. Postage stamp pricing does not generally provide adequate incentives for efficiency. However, inefficiencies may be small under certain conditions, and postage stamp pricing has the advantage of being relatively transparent and easy to implement. This paper presents an overview of objectives related to an effective design of transmission pricing approaches, of transmission pricing models and presents recent developments in Europe in this respect. Due to the great number of institutional designs of electricity market organisations, it will be difficult to design and implement a model of cross-border transmission pricing that results in a high degree of non-discriminatory international competition in electricity markets, a key objective of the Electricity Directive.(author)

  6. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  7. Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-01-01

    The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She–Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets. (paper)

  8. Automobile Marketing Strategies, Pricing, and Product Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-04-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the decision-making processes concerning major model year product introductions and alterations in the automotive industry as well as to investigate techniques of price positioning, product and image positi...

  9. Automobile Marketing Strategies, Pricing, and Product Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-01-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the decision-making processes concerning major model year product introductions and alterations in the automotive industry as well as to investigate techniques of price positioning, product and image positi...

  10. Volume stumbles; prices hold steady

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the July 1994 uranium market summary. During this period, spot market volume slid to just under 370,000 lbs U3O8 equivalent. In total, six deals took place; four in the spot market, none in the medium and long-term market, one in the conversion market, and one in the enrichment market, The low end of the unrestricted price range strengthened a bit. All other prices were unchanged

  11. Pricing local distribution services in a competitive market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duann, D.J.

    1995-12-01

    Unbundling and restructuring of local distribution services is the focus of the natural gas industry. As a result of regulatory reforms, a competitive local distribution market has emerged, and the validity of traditional cost-based regulation is being questioned. One alternative is to completely unbundle local distribution services and transform the local distribution company into a common carrier for intrastate transportation services. Three kinds of alternative pricing mechanisms are examined. For firm intrastate transportation services, cost-based pricing is the preferred method unless it can be shown that a competitive secondary market can be established and maintained. Pricing interruptible transportation capacity is discussed

  12. Explaining the so-called 'price premium' in oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino, A.; Ortiz, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the information content of several variables on the so-called ''oil price premium over fundamentals''. We define this premium as the difference between the market oil price and the estimated price consistent with the OECD's relative industry stock level. By using Granger causality tests and extended regressions we test the systematic ability of a broad set of variables to explain the premium. We find that speculation in the oil market - measured by non-commercial long positions - can improve the traditional model, reducing the premium significantly during some parts of the sample. (author)

  13. Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

  14. A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf

    2013-01-01

    Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools

  15. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  16. Price dynamics in the market for Liquid Petroleum Gas transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adland, Roar; Jia Haiying; Lu Jing

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of the spot freight rate in the Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) shipping market. The spot freight rate process is nonparametrically specified so that the model allows for maximal flexibility in fitting the data. The model is estimated using data for the Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) sector and the estimation results are compared to those of crude oil tankers available in the literature. The empirical results suggest that the LPG spot freight rate can be appropriately described by a simple linear stochastic model and does not exhibit the non-linearity found in other bulk shipping sectors

  17. A measure of marketing price transmission in the rice market of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Ming Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to test whether changes in the marketing margin betweenthe farm and the retail prices can result in an asymmetric relationship between the farm and the retail prices in the rice market of Taiwan. By separating the transaction cost variation into two regimes, this paper utilizes a two-regime TVECM with the error correction term serving as the threshold variable to create a non-linear threshold model. The empirical results show that when the marketing margin is lower than the threshold value, the market system operates freely and there is feedback between the farm and retail prices. However, when the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the farm and retail prices no longer exists. The conclusions are as follows. Changes in the marketing margin can cause the asymmetric price transmission between the farm and retail prices in Taiwan’s rice markets; therefore, ignoring the effect of the marketing margin could lead to errors in the models. When the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the two prices is broken.

  18. Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettendorf, Leon; Geest, Stephanie A. van der; Varkevisser, Marco

    2003-01-01

    This article analyses the retail price adjustments in the Dutch gasoline market. We estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996-2001. We construct five datasets, one for each working day. The conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets, suggesting that the choice of the day for which the prices are observed matters more than commonly believed. In our view, the insufficient robustness of the outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature. Using these two approaches, we also show that the effect of asymmetry on the Dutch consumer costs is negligible. (Author)

  19. Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettendorf, L.; Van der Geest, S.A.; Varkevisser, M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses retail price adjustments in the Dutch gasoline market. We estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996 to 2001. We construct five datasets, one for each working day. The conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets, suggesting that the choice of the day for which prices are observed matters more than commonly believed. In our view, the insufficient robustness of outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature. Using two approaches, we also show that the effect of asymmetry on Dutch consumer costs is negligible

  20. Locational Prices in Capacity Subscription Market Considering Transmission Limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Babaeinejad Sarookolaee

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on one of the most effective type of capacity markets named Capacity Subscription (CS market which is predicted to be widely used in the upcoming smart grids. Despite variant researches done about the mechanism and structure of capacity markets, their performances have been rarely tested in the presence of network constraints. Considering this deficiency, we tried to propose a new method to determine capacity prices in the network considering the transmission line flow limitations named Local capacity Prices (LP. This method is quite new and has not been tried before in any other similar researches. The philosophy of the proposed method is to determine capacity prices considering each consumer share of total peak demand. The first advantage of LP is that the consumers who benefit from the transmission facilities and are the responsible for transmission congestions, pay higher capacity prices than those whom their needed electricity is prepared locally. The second advantage of LP is that consumers connected to the same bus do not have to pay same capacity price due to their different shares of total peak demand. For more clarification, two other different methods named Branches Flow limit as a Global Limit (BFGL and Locational Capacity Prices (LCP are proposed and compared to the LP method in order to show LP method efficiency. The numerical results obtained from case studies show that the LP method follows more justice market procedure which results in more efficient capacity prices in comparison to BFGL and LCP methods.

  1. Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, Hung-po

    2011-01-01

    Facing growing technological and environmental challenges, the electricity industry needs effective pricing mechanism to promote efficient risk management and investment decisions. In a restructured electricity market with competitive wholesale prices and traditionally regulated retail rates, however, there are technical and institutional barriers that prevent dynamic pricing with price responsive demand. In regions with limited energy storage capacity, intermittent renewable resources present special challenges. This could adversely affect the effectiveness of public policies causing inefficient investments in energy technologies. In this paper, we present an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market and use the model in a simulation study for an initial assessment of renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. A key objective of the study is to shed light on the policy issues so that effective decisions can be made to improve efficiency. - Highlights: → Renewable resources present special challenges in regions with limited energy storage capacity. → This paper presents an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market. → A simulation study assesses renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. → The study results inform policy decisions to improve efficient investments in energy technologies.

  2. Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chien-Chiang; Lee, Jun-De [Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung (China)

    2009-04-15

    This paper investigates the efficient market hypothesis using total energy price and four kinds of various disaggregated energy prices - coal, oil, gas, and electricity - for OECD countries over the period 1978-2006. We employ a highly flexible panel data stationarity test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre JL, Del Barrio-Castro T, Lopez-Bazo E. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. J Econometrics 2005;8:159-75], which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Overwhelming evidence in favor of the broken stationarity hypothesis is found, implying that energy prices are not characterized by an efficient market. Thus, it shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among energy prices. The estimated breaks are meaningful and coincide with the most critical events which affected the energy prices. (author)

  3. Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chien-Chiang; Lee, Jun-De

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the efficient market hypothesis using total energy price and four kinds of various disaggregated energy prices - coal, oil, gas, and electricity - for OECD countries over the period 1978-2006. We employ a highly flexible panel data stationarity test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre JL, Del Barrio-Castro T, Lopez-Bazo E. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. J Econometrics 2005;8:159-75], which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Overwhelming evidence in favor of the broken stationarity hypothesis is found, implying that energy prices are not characterized by an efficient market. Thus, it shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among energy prices. The estimated breaks are meaningful and coincide with the most critical events which affected the energy prices. (author)

  4. Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

  5. Basic Studies on Chaotic Characteristics of Electric Power Market Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Yuya; Miyauchi, Hajime; Kita, Toshihiro

    Recently, deregulation and reform of electric power utilities have been progressing in many parts of the world. In Japan, partial deregulation has been started from generation sector since 1995 and partial deregulation of retail sector is executed through twice law revisions. Through the deregulation, because electric power is traded in the market and its price is always fluctuated, it is important for the electric power business to analyze and predict the price. Although the price data of the electric power market is time series data, it is not always proper to analyze by the linear model such as ARMA because the price sometimes changes suddenly. Therefore, in this paper, we apply the methods of chaotic time series analysis, one of non-linear analysis methods, and investigate the chaotic characteristics of the system price of JEPX.

  6. Determinants of Livestock Prices in Ethiopian Pastoral Livestock Markets: Implications for Pastoral Marketing Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Belayneh, Hailemariam Teklewold; Feye, Getachew Legese; Alemu, Dawit; Negassa, Asfaw

    2009-01-01

    The major objective of this paper is to identify determinants of market prices for cattle, sheep and goat in the export market value chain starting from pastoral markets to export abattoirs and live animal exporters. The study is based on the information generated through a formal survey conducted in the major pastoral livestock markets of Ethiopia with 128 collectors, small and big traders, feedlot operators, live animal and meat exporters. Hedonic price formation model was used to analyze t...

  7. Price schedules coordination for electricity pool markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legbedji, Alexis Motto

    2002-04-01

    We consider the optimal coordination of a class of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, which is formally interpreted as a resource-allocation problem. Many decomposition techniques were proposed to circumvent the difficulty of solving large systems with limited computer resources. The considerable improvement in computer architecture has allowed the solution of large-scale problems with increasing speed. Consequently, interest in decomposition techniques has waned. Nonetheless, there is an important class of applications for which decomposition techniques will still be relevant, among others, distributed systems---the Internet, perhaps, being the most conspicuous example---and competitive economic systems. Conceptually, a competitive economic system is a collection of agents that have similar or different objectives while sharing the same system resources. In theory, constructing a large-scale mathematical program and solving it centrally, using currently available computing power can optimize such systems of agents. In practice, however, because agents are self-interested and not willing to reveal some sensitive corporate data, one cannot solve these kinds of coordination problems by simply maximizing the sum of agent's objective functions with respect to their constraints. An iterative price decomposition or Lagrangian dual method is considered best suited because it can operate with limited information. A price-directed strategy, however, can only work successfully when coordinating or equilibrium prices exist, which is not generally the case when a weak duality is unavoidable. Showing when such prices exist and how to compute them is the main subject of this thesis. Among our results, we show that, if the Lagrangian function of a primal program is additively separable, price schedules coordination may be attained. The prices are Lagrange multipliers, and are also the decision variables of a dual program. In addition, we propose a new form of

  8. Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bunn, Derek; Kettunen, Janne; Wilson, Tom

    2009-01-01

    Carbon pricing is an important mechanism for providing companies with incentives to invest in carbon abatement. Price formation in carbon markets involves a complex interplay between policy targets, dynamic technology costs, and market rules. Carbon pricing may under-deliver investment due to R and D externalities, requiring additional policies which themselves affect market prices. Also, abatement costs depend on the extent of technology deployment due to learning-by-doing. This paper introduces an analytical framework based on marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves with the aim of providing an intuitive understanding of the key dynamics and risk factors in carbon markets. The framework extends the usual static MAC representation of the market to incorporate policy interactions and some technology cost dynamics. The analysis indicates that supporting large-scale deployment of mature abatement technologies suppresses the marginal cost of abatement, sometimes to zero, whilst increasing total abatement costs. However, support for early stage R and D may reduce both total abatement cost and carbon price risk. An important aspect of the analysis is in elevating risk management considerations into energy policy formation, as the results of the stochastic modelling indicate wide distributions for the emergence of carbon prices and public costs around the policy expectations. (author)

  9. Natural gas prices in the Maritimes : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-03-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply and price of natural gas in the Maritimes. This report contains the results and analysis of a survey of the wholesale natural gas prices paid by Canadian buyers in the Maritimes from November 2002 to October 2003. The objective of the report is to improve the understanding of the market factors that influence wholesale natural gas prices in the Maritimes. A comparative evaluation of domestic and export prices shows that Canadian buyers have had access to gas at prices similar to the export market at St. Stephen, New Brunswick. Since the number of participants in the domestic market is low, only four large buyers have a major impact on average prices in the region. The challenge for small buyers will be to buy gas from others who can divert some of their own sales of use. However, these sellers may not want to over-commit to new firm sales in case they have to re-purchase the gas during shortages that may occur due to fluctuations in production or shipping. It was noted that a new gas supply into the region would support many buyers and sellers, and could lead to a more transparent Maritime natural gas market. The National Energy Board is satisfied that the Maritime natural gas market is currently performing as well as can be expected, given its young stage of development. 1 tab., 8 figs., 1 appendix

  10. Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-03-01

    This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they're rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears

  11. A Price Earnings Index for the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Ole

    2004-01-01

    Price-earnings ratios are part of the toolkit that is used for assessing the valuation ofindividual firms on the stock market as well as the entire market itself. This paperpresents consistent P/E series for the liquid Danish shares adjusted for share buybacks.The results show that over the period...

  12. Spatial price transmission and market integration of Cistanthera ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial price transmission and market integration of Cistanthera papaverifera species in ... Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... the null hypothesis of non-stationarity at their levels at 1% and 5% significance level. ... This study concludes that sawn-wood marketing in Delta State have a high degree of ...

  13. Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); C. Huurman; R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. In these markets, quotes for day-ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day. The same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day. The

  14. Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Han

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.

  15. Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bask, Mikael; Widerberg, Anna

    2009-01-01

    By using a novel approach in this paper, (λ,σ 2 )-analysis, we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the Nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased. That electricity prices at Nord Pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step-wise integration of the Nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the integration process than it was before this process. This is good news

  16. Decoupling the Oil and Gas Prices. Natural Gas Pricing in the Post-Financial Crisis Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanai, Miharu

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks into natural gas pricing in the post-financial crisis market and, in particular, examines the question whether the oil-linked gas pricing system has outlived its utility as global gas markets mature and converge more rapidly than expected and as large new resources of unconventional gas shift the gas terms-of-trade. Two opposing natural gas pricing systems have coexisted for the last two decades. On the one hand, there is traditional oil-linked pricing, used in pipeline gas imports by Continental European countries and in LNG imports by the countries in Far East. The other is the system led by futures exchanges in deregulated, competitive markets largely in the UK and the US. World gas markets are changing and the basis and mechanisms of price formation are changing with them. There is no reason to expect a revolution in gas pricing, but formulas designed to address the challenges of the 1970's will need to adjust to the realities of the present and expectations for the 21. century. Because such changes will imply a redistribution of costs and benefits, vested shareholders will defend the status quo. But hopefully and ultimately, appropriately regulated markets will assert themselves and shareholders along the entire value chain will have their interests served

  17. Aggregators’ Optimal Bidding Strategy in Sequential Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Spot Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolin Ayón

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probabilistic optimization method that produces optimal bidding curves to be submitted by an aggregator to the day-ahead electricity market and the intraday market, considering the flexible demand of his customers (based in time dependent resources such as batteries and shiftable demand and taking into account the possible imbalance costs as well as the uncertainty of forecasts (market prices, demand, and renewable energy sources (RES generation. The optimization strategy aims to minimize the total cost of the traded energy over a whole day, taking into account the intertemporal constraints. The proposed formulation leads to the solution of different linear optimization problems, following the natural temporal sequence of electricity spot markets. Intertemporal constraints regarding time dependent resources are fulfilled through a scheduling process performed after the day-ahead market clearing. Each of the different problems is of moderate dimension and requires short computation times. The benefits of the proposed strategy are assessed comparing the payments done by an aggregator over a sample period of one year following different deterministic and probabilistic strategies. Results show that probabilistic strategy reports better benefits for aggregators participating in power markets.

  18. Hedging LDC price risk in the futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trace, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    During its first five months the natural gas futures market has seen steady growth and increasing participation by various industry players, particularly producers, marketers, and brokers. Not much has been heard, however, about participation by the principal retailers of the gas industry, the local distribution companies (LDCs). Undoubtedly, various LDCs are now in the process of determining whether or not the gas futures market can serve any useful business purpose in their operations. In examining this question LDCs should keep in mind that the futures market should serve the same purpose for them as it does for any other business engaged in the actual buying and selling of price-volatile commodities - mitigation of price risk. This article looks at the risks of the market, gives examples of investments to hedge risks and looks at the overall performance of the market

  19. Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masih, Mansur; Algahtani, Ibrahim; De Mello, Lurion

    2010-01-01

    This paper is the first attempt to investigate: (1) is the crude oil (WTI) price significantly related to the regional ethylene prices in the Naphtha intensive ethylene markets of the Far East, North West Europe, and the Mediterranean? (2) What drives the regional ethylene prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between crude oil and ethylene prices. Our findings, based on the long-run structural modelling approach of Pesaran and Shin, and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) crude oil (WTI) price is cointegrated with the regional ethylene prices (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that although the ethylene prices in North West Europe and the Mediterranean were weakly endogenous, the Far East ethylene price was weakly exogenous both in the short and long term. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (2000.1-2006.4) with the surge in demand for ethylene throughout the Far East, particularly in China and South Korea. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of WTI as a leading player as well, is consistent with the recent surge in WTI price (fuelled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the WTI futures/options and refining tightness) reflecting the growing importance of input cost in determining the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. (author)

  20. North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Barry K.; Holt, Matthew T.; Prestemon, Jeffery P.

    2008-01-01

    Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board (OSB) markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-a-vis the law of one price. Weekly data, February 3rd, 1995 through October 9th, 2009, are used in the analysis. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important features of these markets; price...

  1. 78 FR 70080 - Market Dominant Price Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-22

    .... Attachment D presents the 2014 Mailing Promotions and Incentives Calendar. The Postal Service filed six sets... plans to require FSS preparation for all flat- shaped mail pieces destinating in FSS zones. Second, it is proposing separate FSS pricing for presorted flat-shaped pieces in Standard Mail, Outside County...

  2. An analysis of strategic price setting in retail gasoline markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaureguiberry, Florencia

    This dissertation studies price-setting behavior in the retail gasoline industry. The main questions addressed are: How important is a retail station's brand and proximity to competitors when retail stations set price? How do retailers adjust their pricing when they cater to consumers who are less aware of competing options or have less discretion over where they purchase gasoline? These questions are explored in two separate analyses using a unique datasets containing retail pricing behavior of stations in California and in 24 different metropolitan areas. The evidence suggests that brand and location generate local market power for gasoline stations. After controlling for market and station characteristics, the analysis finds a spread of 11 cents per gallon between the highest and the lowest priced retail gasoline brands. The analysis also indicates that when the nearest competitor is located over 2 miles away as opposed to next door, consumers will pay an additional 1 cent per gallon of gasoline. In order to quantify the significance of local market power, data for stations located near major airport rental car locations are utilized. The presumption here is that rental car users are less aware or less sensitive to fueling options near the rental car return location and are to some extent "captured consumers". Retailers located near rental car locations have incentives to adjust their pricing strategies to exploit this. The analysis of pricing near rental car locations indicates that retailers charge prices that are 4 cent per gallon higher than other stations in the same metropolitan area. This analysis is of interest to regulators who are concerned with issues of consolidation, market power, and pricing in the retail gasoline industry. This dissertation concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical analysis.

  3. Pricing road safety into the market.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittink, R.D.

    1997-01-01

    The author considers the opportunities offered by marketing in the field of road safety. Marketing is defined as an approach which takes into account social, cultural, economic, political and legal developments and offers a solution. Examples are given in the transport field where the needs of the

  4. Improved structural pricing model for the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosadi, D.; Muslim

    2017-12-01

    Shariah financial products are currently developing in Indonesia financial market. One of the most important products is called as Sukuk which is commonly referred to as "sharia compliant" bonds. The type of Sukuk that have been widely traded in Indonesia until now are Sukuk Ijarah and Sukuk Mudharabah. In [1], we discuss various models for the price of the fixed-non-callable Sukuk Ijarah and provide the empirical studies using data from Indonesia Bonds market. We found that the structural model considered in [1] cannot model the market price empirically well. In this paper, we consider the improved model and show that it performs well for modelling the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah.

  5. Flow-based market coupling. Stepping stone towards nodal pricing?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Welle, A.J.

    2012-07-01

    For achieving one internal energy market for electricity by 2014, market coupling is deployed to integrate national markets into regional markets and ultimately one European electricity market. The extent to which markets can be coupled depends on the available transmission capacities between countries. Since interconnections are congested from time to time, congestion management methods are deployed to divide the scarce available transmission capacities over market participants. For further optimization of the use of available transmission capacities while maintaining current security of supply levels, flow-based market coupling (FBMC) will be implemented in the CWE region by 2013. Although this is an important step forward, important hurdles for efficient congestion management remain. Hence, flow based market coupling is compared to nodal pricing, which is often considered as the most optimal solution from theoretical perspective. In the context of decarbonised power systems it is concluded that advantages of nodal pricing are likely to exceed its disadvantages, warranting further development of FBMC in the direction of nodal pricing.

  6. Analysis of thermal coal pricing and the coal price distortion in China from the perspective of market forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Herui; Wei, Pengbang

    2017-01-01

    The price of thermal coal has always been the focus of the debate between coal mining industry and electric power industry. The thermal coal price is always lower than other same quality coal, and this phenomenon of thermal coal price distortion has been existing in China for a long time. The distortion coal price can not reflect the external cost and the resource scarcity of coal, which could result in environment deteriorating and inefficient resource allocation. This paper studied the phenomenon of thermal coal price distortion through economic theoretical modeling and empirical cointegration analysis from the perspective of market forces. The results show that thermal coal price is determined by electricity price, the prediction elasticity of a electricity enterprise, price elasticity of demand of electricity, the input prediction elasticity of a electricity enterprise and the price elasticity of supply of thermal coal. The main reason of coal price distortion is the unbalance market force of coal industry and thermal coal generation industry. The distortion rate of coal price is positively related to the market force of electric power industry and negatively related to the industrial concentration of coal industry. - Highlights: • This paper studied thermal coal pricing and the coal price distortion in China. • The main reason of coal price distortion is the unbalance market force. • Thermal coal price is also influenced by electricity price and price elasticity of demand of electricity. • The distortion rate of coal price is negatively related to the industrial concentration of coal industry.

  7. Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janczura, Joanna; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał; Wolff, Rodney C.

    2013-01-01

    An important issue in fitting stochastic models to electricity spot prices is the estimation of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. Unfortunately, estimation routines for the long-term and short-term seasonal pattern are usually quite sensitive to extreme observations, known as electricity price spikes. Improved robustness of the model can be achieved by (a) filtering the data with some reasonable procedure for outlier detection, and then (b) using estimation and testing procedures on the filtered data. In this paper we examine the effects of different treatments of extreme observations on model estimation and on determining the number of spikes (outliers). In particular we compare results for the estimation of the seasonal and stochastic components of electricity spot prices using either the original or filtered data. We find significant evidence for a superior estimation of both the seasonal short-term and long-term components when the data have been treated carefully for outliers. Overall, our findings point out the substantial impact the treatment of extreme observations may have on these issues and, therefore, also on the pricing of electricity derivatives like futures and option contracts. An added value of our study is the ranking of different filtering techniques used in the energy economics literature, suggesting which methods could be and which should not be used for spike identification. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the impact of spikes on seasonal pattern estimation • The effects of different treatments of spikes on model estimation are examined. • Cleaning spot prices for outliers yields superior estimates of the seasonal pattern. • Removing outliers provides better parameter estimates for the stochastic process. • Rankings of filtering techniques suggested in the literature are provided

  8. GLOBAL TO DOMESTIC PRICE TRANSMISSION BETWEEN THE SEGMENTED CEREALS MARKETS: A STUDY OF AFGHAN RICE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najibullah Hassanzoy

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines cointegration and the difference in the extent of price transmission, and speed of adjustment between global and domestic prices of high and low quality rice. Unit root tests, cointegration tests and error correction models are employed in the analysis. While there are no comparable studies in the literature, the findings of this study indicate that the dynamics of price transmission may be different between high and low quality rice markets. That is, the extent of price transmission appears to be larger for the global prices of low quality rice whereas the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium may be faster for domestic prices of high quality rice. Moreover, a shock in the global prices of low quality rice may have a long-lasting effect on domestic prices of low quality rice as compared to their high quality counterparts affecting domestic prices of high quality rice.

  9. NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK MARKET OPTION PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Sannikov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The use of neural networks for non-linear models helps to understand where linear model drawbacks, coused by their specification, reveal themselves. This paper attempts to find this out. The objective of research is to determine the meaning of “option prices calculation using neural networks”. Materials and Methods: We use two kinds of variables: endogenous (variables included in the model of neural network and variables affecting on the model (permanent disturbance. Results: All data are divided into 3 sets: learning, affirming and testing. All selected variables are normalised from 0 to 1. Extreme values of income were shortcut. Discussion and Conclusions: Using the 33-14-1 neural network with direct links we obtained two sets of forecasts. Optimal criteria of strategies in stock markets’ option pricing were developed.

  10. Cuba's transition to market-based energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Lopez, J.F.

    1992-01-01

    Since 1960 the Soviet Union has been, for all practical purposes, Cuba's exclusive supplier of energy products. For certain time periods, Soviet sales of oil and oil products to Cuba were made at concessional prices; prior to 1991, they were priced using transferable rubles and were essentially bartered for Cuban goods, especially sugar. Effective January 1, 1991, the Soviet Union shifted to world market prices and convertible currency payments for all traded commodities, including energy products. The shift to market prices and convertible currencies in Cuban-Soviet energy trade has already brought - or is likely to bring - a number of adjustments in four areas: (1) the trade balance; (2) the ability to reexport oil and oil products; (3) energy consumption patterns; (4) and the structure of energy supplies. 33 refs., 8 tabs

  11. Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market

    OpenAIRE

    Veiga Helena; Vorsatz Marc

    2006-01-01

    We analyze in the laboratory whether an uninformed trader is able to manipulate the price of a financial asset. To do so, we compare the results of two different experimental treatments. In the Benchmark Treatment, twelve subjects trade a common value asset that takes either a high or a low value. Information is distributed asymmetrically, only three outof twelve subjects know the actual value of the asset. The Manipulation Treatment is identical to the Benchmark Treatment apart from the fact...

  12. Pricing of Fluctuations in Electricity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tsitsiklis, John N.; Xu, Yunjian

    2012-01-01

    In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability of demand on conventional thermal generating units. We address this issue by explicitly modeling the ancillary cost associated with demand variability. We argue that a time-varying price equal to the suppliers' instantaneous marginal cost may not achieve s...

  13. From price theory to marketing management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Erik Kloppenborg; Pedersen, Kurt

    2013-01-01

    Historical School, an essential precondition for the Copenhagen approach was the second wave of microeconomic theory of the 1930s. The article argues that it was a marketing management school, and that it offered early contributions to the development of marketing theory. Originality/value – Relatively......Purpose – The purpose of this article is to show how a particular marketing paradigm developed in Denmark from the 1920s through the 1960s. It peaked in the mid-1950s and faded out with one major publication in the early 1970s. The article provides a relatively detailed study of the initial phases...... of the school and its key ideas. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on primary sources, i.e. the writings of the scholars who shaped and developed the school. A significant part of the sources are available in Danish only. Findings – While American marketing theory developed from the German...

  14. Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, B.; Miller, M.

    2009-09-01

    In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs. This report presents data on programs that have funded both marketing and program administration. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gathers the data annually from utility green pricing program managers. Programs reporting data to NREL spent a median of 18.8% of program revenues on marketing their programs in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. The smallest utilities (those with less than 25,000 in their eligible customer base) spent 49% of revenues on marketing, significantly more than the overall median. This report addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs--and the role of marketing, generally, in achieving program objectives, including expansion of renewable energy.

  15. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.

    2016-10-04

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

  16. The Economics of Bitcoins - Market Characteristics and Price Jumps

    OpenAIRE

    Marc Gronwald

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the economics of Bitcoins in two ways. First, it broadens the discussion on how to capture Bitcoins using economic terms. Center stage in this analysis take the discussion of some unique characteristics of this market as well as the comparison of Bitcoins and gold. Second, the paper empirically analyses Bitcoin prices using an autoregressive jump-intensity GARCH model; a model tested and proven by the empirical finance community. Results suggest that Bitcoin price are pa...

  17. Role of e-WOM in Hospitality Market Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kościółek Szczepan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - Online assessments are one of the main factors determining a customer's choice of accommodation. This article examines their relationship to prices in the low and high season in Cracow's hospitality market. The question of which attributes in hotel ratings explain the change in price levels was investigated. Design/methodology/approach - The inference was based on ratings and hotel room offers published on the Booking.com platform. Data were collected and estimated for the representative number of 97 hotels in Cracow. Regression analysis was then used to estimate the model. Findings - The results of the analysis showed that price levels for the high and low seasons are correlated with ratings for comfort and location. It is more precise to use these variables as an explanation for prices in the high season. Guests' perceptions of comfort and location are combined with other hotel features. Research implications/limitations - The study showed which of the hotel parameters should be enhanced when rationally increasing price levels. The limitations of the study are that it covered only one Polish city, collected data from a single website, and omitted other variables to explain the prices of hotel rooms. Originality/value/contribution - This is one of the first papers to examine the correlation between electronic consumer ratings and price levels in the Polish hospitality market and one of few investigations based on the role of e-WOM for the pricing of all objects in the sector, not just for a specific category of hotels. Keywords: consumer ratings, e-WOM, hospitality market, online reviews, pricing.

  18. Pricing and Hedging of Derivatives in Contagious Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    It is well documented that stock markets are contagious. A negative shock to one market increases the probability of adverse shocks to other markets. We model this contagion effect by including mutually exciting jump processes in the dynamics of the indexes' log-returns. On top of this we add...... a stochastic volatility component to the dynamics. It is important to take the contagion effect into account if derivatives written on a basket of assets are to be priced or hedged. Due to the affine model specification the joint characteristic function of the log-returns is known analytically, and for two......-asset derivatives prices and show how for certain derivatives the impact is heavy. Moreover, we derive hedge ratios for European put and call options and perform a numerical experiment, which illustrates the impact of contagious jumps on option prices and hedge ratios. Mutually exciting processes have been analyzed...

  19. Price and distribution policies in healthcare marketing in Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coculescu, B I; Coculescu, E C; Purcărea, V L

    2017-01-01

    There is a principle similar to the theory of exchange in the marketing of health services, meaning that what is delivered to the target market (i.e. the beneficiaries) must be equal to or greater than what is to be received (i.e. the price). The price level in the marketing mix is influenced by how the consumer perceives the respective medical service and is quantified in the profit and the turnover of the organization respectively. The cost of the medical act as a whole is the value of all the tangible and intangible variables associated with it, and the planning, distribution and promotion of the product must be taken into account in the price setting.

  20. Carbon Pricing, Power Markets and the Competitiveness of Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses the competitiveness of nuclear power against coal- and gas-fired power generation in liberalized electricity markets with either CO 2 trading or carbon taxes. It uses daily price data for electricity, gas, coal and carbon from 2005 to 2010, which encompasses the first years of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world's foremost carbon trading framework. The study shows that even with modest carbon pricing, competition for new investment in electricity markets will take place between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power struggling to be profitable. The data and analyses contained in this study provide a robust framework for assessing cost and investment issues in liberalized electricity markets with carbon pricing. (authors)

  1. Price discovery in dual-class shares across multiple markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina

    We extend the standard price discovery analysis to estimate the information share of dual-class shares across domestic and foreign markets. By examining both common and preferred shares, we aim to extract information not only about the fundamental value of the firm, but also about the dual...... the innovations, the standard information share measure depends heavily on the ordering we attribute to prices in the system. To remain agnostic about which are the leading share class and market, one could for instance compute some weighted average information share across all possible orderings...... or trading platform conveys more information about shocks in the fundamental price. As such, our procedure yields a single measure of information share, which is invariant to the ordering of the variables in the system. Simulations of a simple market microstructure model show that our information share...

  2. Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godby, R.; Lintner, A.M.; Stengos, T.; Wandschneider, B.

    2000-01-01

    This paper applies a Threshold Regression model to test for asymmetric pricing in the retail gasoline market in Canada, using weekly data for the period January 1990 to December 1996. We present results for 13 Canadian cities for both premium and regular gasoline. Within the context of an error correction model we test for the presence of asymmetric price behaviour using average changes in crude prices as well as various lags for the change in crude as possible thresholds. We are unable to find any evidence to support this view. 23 refs

  3. Earning one's life at market price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piro, P.

    2015-01-01

    Since January 2016 the guaranteed purchase price is no more valid for a large part of the new power production units fed on renewable energies. Their operators have to sell their production at the market price and they receive a complementary remuneration to ensure sufficient profitability. The aim is to reduce the cost of renewable energies to the tax-payer and to avoid distortion of competition between energy producers. For ancient installations and for new installations of small size there is no change they will continue benefiting from a guaranteed purchase price. (A.C.)

  4. THE LOW PRICE EFFECT ON THE POLISH MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Zaremba

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the characteristics of the low price anomaly, which implies higher returns to stocks with a low nominal price. The research aims to broaden academic knowledge in a few ways. Firstly, we deliver some fresh evidence on the low price effect from the Polish market. Secondly, we analyze the interdependence between the low price effect and other return factors: value, size and liquidity. Thirdly, we investigate whether the low price effect is present after accounting for liquidity. Fourthly, we check to see whether the low price effect is robust to transaction costs. The paper is composed of three main sections. In the beginning, we review the existing literature. Next, we present the data sources and research methods employed. Finally, we discuss our research findings. Our computations are based on all the stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE in the years 2003-2013. We have concluded that the low price effect is present on the Polish market, although the statistical significance is very weak and it disappears entirely after accounting for transaction costs and liquidity.

  5. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  6. Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Aziz Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

  7. Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geman, Helyette; Ohana, Steve

    2009-01-01

    The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) ''Speculation and Economic Stability'', The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H. (1949) ''The theory of the price of storage'', American Economic Review, 39, 1254-1262] and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature, including the reference paper by Fama and French [Fama, E.F. and K.R. French (1987) ''Commodity futures prices: some evidence on forecast power, premiums and the theory of storage'', Journal of Business 60, 55-73] on metals. The goal of this paper is twofold: 1. validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory (the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality); 2. analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility. In agreement with the theory of storage, we find that: 1. the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil; 2. this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas. Our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year-database of US oil and natural gas prices and inventory. (author)

  8. SpotADAPT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaulakiene, Dalia; Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2015-01-01

    by Amazon Web Services (AWS). The users aiming for the spot market are presented with many instance types placed in multiple datacenters in the world, and thus it is difficult to choose the optimal deployment. In this paper, we propose the framework SpotADAPT (Spot-Aware (re-)Deployment of Analytical...... of typical analytical workloads and real spot price traces. SpotADAPT's suggested deployments are comparable to the theoretically optimal ones, and in particular, it shows good cost benefits for the budget optimization -- on average SpotADAPT is at most 0.3% more expensive than the theoretically optimal...

  9. Sensitivity of portuguese electricity market prices to solar PV penetration : an analysis of 2016 prices

    OpenAIRE

    Cordeiro De Sousa, João

    2017-01-01

    The reduction in price of solar PV technology led, in the recent years, multiple investors to apply for installing new solar PV power plants in Portugal which would operate without subsidies or feed-in-tari s. In 2016 it was reported the approval of construction of such power plants and given the low variable cost of this technology it is expected that their penetration would reduce the electricity market prices. Hence, before doing the economic assessment of potential new sola...

  10. Is an inefficient transmission market better than none at all? On zonal and nodal pricing in electricity systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertsch, Joachim

    2015-09-15

    In this paper, the trade-off between inefficient transmission forward markets (in nodal pricing regimes) and the inefficiency induced by hiding transmission constraints from the market (in zonal pricing regimes) is analyzed. First, a simple two node model formalizing the general trade-off is developed. Then, comparative statics are performed with a stochastic equilibrium model including more nodes, loop flows and an energy and transmission forward market. Inefficiency in the transmission forward market is introduced via a bid-ask-spread and risk aversion of market participants. The welfare impacts for a broad range of supply, demand, grid and inefficiency parameters are analyzed numerically. For efficient spot and forward markets, the results of the literature of nodal pricing being the efficient benchmark are confirmed. With inefficient transmission forward markets, however, zonal pricing proves advantageous in situations with little congestion and low costs. The results imply that the trade-off between the pricing regimes should be considered carefully when defining the geographical scope of bidding zones.

  11. A uniform price auction with locational price adjustments for competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ethier, R.; Mount, T.; Schulze, W.; Zimmerman, R.; Thomas, R.

    1999-01-01

    Competitive electricity markets which rely on centralized dispatch require a mechanism to solicit offers from competing generators. Ideally, such an auction mechanism, provides incentives to submit offers equal to the marginal cost of generation for each generator. Economic theory suggests that the Uniform Price auction is an appropriate institution. However, an efficient implementation of this auction in an electricity context requires that the offers used in the auction reflect the appropriate locational price adjustments for transmission losses and congestion. This paper describes a uniform price auction that incorporates locational price adjustments on a Web-based platform suitable for experimentation. Preliminary results show dramatically different price and revenue results when compared with a simple continuous Discriminative auction. (author)

  12. Petroleum marketing in Africa. Issues in pricing, taxation and investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhagavan, M.R.

    1999-01-01

    This four part book examines and compares the liberalised petroleum marketing in Kenya with petroleum marketing in Ethiopia which has just begun the transition from state control to liberalisation. The petroleum sub-sector in both countries is put into context, and petroleum pricing and taxation issues, financing, marketing issues and policy are reviewed, and policy recommendations for both countries are given. The comparative analysis of the Ethiopian and Kenyan situations presented highlights some lessons for sub-Saharan Africa. Information and statistics on petroleum, marketing, and investment in sub-Saharan Africa are given in the appendix. (UK)

  13. Price limits and stock market efficiency: Evidence from rolling bicorrelation test statistic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Kian-Ping; Brooks, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Using the rolling bicorrelation test statistic, the present paper compares the efficiency of stock markets from China, Korea and Taiwan in selected sub-periods with different price limits regimes. The statistical results do not support the claims that restrictive price limits and price limits per se are jeopardizing market efficiency. However, the evidence does not imply that price limits have no effect on the price discovery process but rather suggesting that market efficiency is not merely determined by price limits.

  14. Market making, prices, and quantity limits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupont, D.Y.

    2000-01-01

    This article develops a model of spread and depth setting under asymmetric information where the equilibrium depth is proportionally more sensitive than the spread to changes in the degree of information asymmetry. The analysis uses a one-period model in which a risk-neutral, monopolistic market

  15. Pricing in Higher Education: A Marketing Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Patrick E.

    1984-01-01

    Both financial and nonfinancial costs of education, such as time, effort, risk, and social and psychological perceptions are considered as influences on consumer behavior and as elements that an institution can manage in its efforts to maintain or change its position in the market. (MSE)

  16. Consistent Price Systems in Multiasset Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Maris

    2012-01-01

    markets with proportional transaction costs as discussed in the recent paper by Guasoni et al. (2008, where the CFS property is introduced and shown sufficient for CPSs for processes with certain state space. The current paper extends the results in the work of Guasoni et al. (2008, to processes with more general state space.

  17. Daily Market News Sentiment and Stock Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); A.K. Singh (Abhay)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn recent years there has been a tremendous growth in the influx of news related to traded assets in international financial markets. This financial news is now available via print media but also through real-time online sources such as internet news and social media sources. The

  18. Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-04

    This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

  19. Effects of reference pricing in pharmaceutical markets: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galizzi, Matteo Maria; Ghislandi, Simone; Miraldo, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    This work aims to provide a systematic and updated survey of original scientific studies on the effect of the introduction of reference pricing (RP) policies in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We searched PubMed, EconLit and Web of Knowledge for articles on RP. We reviewed studies that met the inclusion criteria established in the search strategy. From a total of 468 references, we selected the 35 that met all of the inclusion criteria. Some common themes emerged in the literature. The first was that RP was generally associated with a decrease in the prices of the drugs subject to the policy. In particular, price drops seem to have been experienced in virtually every country that implemented a generic RP (GRP) policy. A GRP policy applies only to products with expired patents and generic competition, and clusters drugs according to chemical equivalence (same form and active compound). More significant price decreases were observed in the sub-markets in which drugs were already facing generic competition prior to RP. Price drops varied widely according to the amount of generic competition and industrial strategies: brand-named drugs originally priced above RP values decreased their prices to a greater extent. A second common theme was that both therapeutic RP (TRP) and GRP have been associated with significant and consistent savings in the first years of application. A third general result is that generic market shares significantly increased whenever the firms producing brand-named drugs did not adopt one of the following strategies: lowering prices to RP values; launching new dosages and/or formulations; or marketing substitute drugs still under patent protection. Finally, concerning TRP, although more evidence is needed, studies based on a large number of patient-level observations showed no association between the RP policy and health outcomes.

  20. Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

  1. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norouzzadeh, Payam; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, Bahareh

    2007-01-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal

  2. Trades, quotes and prices financial markets under the microscope

    CERN Document Server

    Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Donier, Jonathan; Gould, Martin

    2018-01-01

    The widespread availability of high-quality, high-frequency data has revolutionised the study of financial markets. By describing not only asset prices, but also market participants' actions and interactions, this wealth of information offers a new window into the inner workings of the financial ecosystem. In this original text, the authors discuss empirical facts of financial markets and introduce a wide range of models, from the micro-scale mechanics of individual order arrivals to the emergent, macro-scale issues of market stability. Throughout this journey, data is king. All discussions are firmly rooted in the empirical behaviour of real stocks, and all models are calibrated and evaluated using recent data from Nasdaq. By confronting theory with empirical facts, this book for practitioners, researchers and advanced students provides a fresh, new, and often surprising perspective on topics as diverse as optimal trading, price impact, the fragile nature of liquidity, and even the reasons why people trade a...

  3. Influence of Market Competition on Tetracycline Pricing and Impact of Price Increases on Clinician Prescribing Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbieri, John S; Margolis, David J; Brod, Bruce A

    2017-12-01

    Oral tetracyclines are commonly used for acne and other conditions. Recent generic price increases threaten access to these medications. Using the OptumInsight Clinformatics DataMart, we retrospectively evaluated the underlying factors behind these price increases for oral tetracylines using the framework of a competitive market and evaluated the impact of these price increases on prescribing practices. Between 2011 and 2013, the mean cost of doxycycline hyclate prescriptions increased from $7.16 to $139.89 and the mean out-of-pocket cost increased by $9.69. A comparable cost increase was not observed for doxycycline monohydrate or minocycline. There was no significant association between the cost of doxycycline hyclate and market concentration as assessed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (β = 0.030, 95% confidence interval -0.019 to 0.079, P = 0.213) and the market was highly concentrated throughout the study period. The percentage of prescriptions for doxycycline hyclate decreased by 1.9% from 2011 to 2013. This dramatic increase in the cost of doxycycline hyclate is not easily explained using the framework of a competitive market, suggesting that noncompetitive market forces may be responsible. In addition, clinicians have not altered their prescribing behavior in response to this price increase, suggesting that clinician or pharmacy level interventions could potentially increase the use of less costly substitutes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Optimal selling price and energy procurement strategies for a retailer in an electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatami, A.R.; Seifi, H.; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

    2009-01-01

    In an electricity market, the retailer sets up contracts with the wholesale side for purchasing electricity and with the customers for its selling. This paper proposes a mathematical method based on mixed-integer stochastic programming to determine the optimal sale price of electricity to customers and the electricity procurement policy of a retailer for a specified period. The retailer has multiple choices for electricity procurement, such as spot market, forward contracts, call options and self-production. Risk is considered and modeled by conditional value-at-risk methodology. Also, the competition between retailers is modeled using a market share function. A case study is illustrated to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. (author)

  5. Price equilibrium through market forces alone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpentier, J-M.

    1997-01-01

    The role that deregulation will play in the electricity markets both in Canada and the United States was discussed. The four major consequences of deregulation which affect the industry as a whole are: (1) new competition will distinguish between the more efficient and imaginative utilities from those less able to adapt and provide competitive service, (2) certain utilities may be obliged to buy electricity from independent power producers at predetermined rates, (3) utilities will be thinking in terms of profit margins and immediate profitability which will result in strong incentives to aggressively market their products, (4) utilities will deviate from their traditional roles as electricity suppliers and start selling other services or products, such as gas or telecommunications. The impact that deregulation will have on energy efficiency and the environment was also discussed. It was noted that the cheapest sources of electricity, such as coal-fired stations, are also the most harmful to the environment. It was suggested that it may be necessary to introduce universal taxes on greenhouse gases or other pollutants to enforce stringent environmental standards for the industry. Expert opinion holds that in a wide-open competitive market the industry could cope with such constraints

  6. TRANSFER PRICES AND MARKET VALUE OF REINSURANCE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea - Lavinia CAZACU (NEAMȚU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the increasingly sustainable economic and financial crisis, which is characterized by the diminishing of the sums due to the state budget, the interest of more and more countries, including Romania, for the legalization and control over the transfer prices increases. Transfer pricing is an activity involving the execution of client related actions for a specific financial product through multiple intermediaries and / or tax jurisdictions. These transfer prices are used in different industries and, in the last period, have been used, in particular, by reinsurance companies as a result of difficult economic conditions and increasing competitiveness. Under these circumstances, insurers need to be aware that they will carry out tax inspections whose role is to verify using the market value principle, the compliance of their prices with the affiliated reinsurers in order to avoid misuse of those prices, by exaggerating costs and artificially reducing potential profits. This study emphasizes that reinsurance contracts made by affiliated companies are not the issue, but the way in which transactions are carried out that do not accurately reflect the risks transferred, their costs and the respect of the market value principle. If they are not carefully controlled, these reinsurance companies have every reason to use transfer pricing to move the profit between tax jurisdictions with differentiated rates of taxation, thus minimizing total corporate tax.

  7. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  8. Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

  9. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  10. Market power and price structure in the electricity market; Markedsmakt og prisstruktur i kraftmarkedet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halseth, Arve

    1998-12-01

    This report evaluates the importance of market power on price formation and price structure in the Norwegian electricity market. A simple oligopoly model is used to show how the equilibrium is affected by demand, distribution of capacity between two major suppliers, and marginal production costs, given that the suppliers do not cooperate. Two important conclusions can be drawn from the calculations: (1) a high concentration on the supply side does not necessarily lead to essential market power, and (2) market power may contribute to increased stability and predictability. The main conclusion is that market power can be positive for society and it is not uniquely associated with a high concentration on the supply side. If emphasis is placed on stability and predictability, market power should not be defined as deviation from prices under free competition but rather should be related to the requirement that the suppliers should not obtain unreasonably high profit with unreasonably little utilization of capacity. 10 refs., 11 figs.

  11. Defining geographic coal markets using price data and shipments data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waarell, Linda

    2005-01-01

    Given the importance of coal in world energy supply an analysis of the relevant geographic market is essential for consumers, producers, as well as for competition policy. The purpose of this paper is to define the relevant economic market for steam and coking coal, and to test the hypothesis of single world markets for these coal products. Methodologically the paper relies on two different tests for defining markets, using both shipments data and price data. The results from both methods point in the same direction. In the case of coking coal the results indicate that the market is essentially global in scope, and also that the market has become more integrated over time. The results for steam coal show that the market is more regional in scope, and there exist no clear tendencies of increased integration over time. One policy implication of the finding that the steam coal market is more regional in scope, and thus that the market boundary is smaller than if the market would have been international, is that a merger and acquisition in this market likely would have been of a more concern for antitrust authorities than the same activity on the coking coal market

  12. Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry's practice of maintaining crude stocks at ''Just in time'' inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers' information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996

  13. Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotný, Jan; Petrov, D.; Urga, G.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 24, June (2015), s. 66-92 ISSN 1386-4181 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-27047S Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : price jumps * foreign exchange markets * trading Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.726, year: 2015

  14. Non-market pricing for an improved solid waste management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Non-market pricing for an improved solid waste management system in Arba Minch ... in Arba Minch, a tourist hub and one of the rapidly growing towns in Ethiopia. ... The mean WTP estimated in this survey can serve as a guide for municipal ...

  15. A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leda D. Minkova

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.

  16. Product and labour market regulations, production prices, wages and productivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cette, G.; Lopez, J.; Mairesse, J.

    2015-01-01

    This study is an attempt to evaluate the effects of product and labour market regulations on industry productivity through their various impacts on changes in production prices and wages. In a first stage, the estimation of a regression equation on an industry*country panel, with controls for

  17. The Effects of Market Structure on Television News Pricing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, Michael O.; Wollert, James A.

    Multiple regression techniques were used to examine the business side of local television news operations for November 1978. Research questions examined the effect of several variables on local television news prices (advertising rates), including type of ownership, network affiliation/signal type, market size, cable network penetration, market…

  18. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.; Teichmann, Josef; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present

  19. Lower price for solar boilers must improve market penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koevoet, J.B.J.

    1999-01-01

    The Dutch government aims at 1.7 PJ thermal energy for the year 2007 to be supplied by solar water heaters. For that target the number of installed solar boilers must increase seven times the number of installed solar boilers in 1998. This can be stimulated by a considerable reduction of the market price for such boilers

  20. Vertical price leadership on local maize markets in Benin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, WE; Lutz, C; van Tilburg, A

    This paper considers vertical price relationships between wholesalers and retailers on five local maize markets in Benin. We show that the common stochastic trend and the long-run disequilibrium error must explicitly be considered to correctly interpret the restrictions on the error-correction

  1. Creating successful price and placement strategies for social marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thackeray, Rosemary; Brown, Kelli R McCormack

    2010-03-01

    A successful marketing strategy includes the design of a marketing mix with the right combination of products, offered at the right price, in the right place, and then promoted in such a way that makes it easy and rewarding for the individual to change his or her behavior. A price is incurred in exchange for receiving a bundle of benefits. The social marketer can use various pricing tactics to make the desired behavior appear to have fewer costs and more benefits while making the undesired behavior to have less benefit and greater cost. Place is where and when the target population will perform the desired behavior, purchase or obtain a tangible product, and/or receive associated services. Involving partners in the placement strategy can make products more accessible and increase opportunities for people to perform a behavior. Strategies for making the product available at a desirable price and in places that are convenient are integral to the overall social marketing plan to facilitate behavior change.

  2. Gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in China: Evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Hengyun; Oxley, Les; Gibson, John

    2009-01-01

    This study investigates the emergence of energy markets by testing for convergence of energy prices with a new dataset on energy spot prices in 35 major cities in China. Both descriptive statistics and unit root are employed to test the convergence of energy prices for each of four fuel price series. The whole study period is divided into two sub-periods in order to reconcile the gradual energy reforms. The results show the steady improvement in energy market performance in China, especially during the second sub-period, which suggests that the market appears to be playing an increasing role in determining energy prices. While panel unit root tests show energy markets are integrated in China as a whole, city-by-city univariate unit root tests suggest that there are still many regional energy markets, probably because energy reserves (especially coal) vary widely across regions. Since China's energy economy is gradually moving towards market-oriented mechanisms, the existing literature may become obsolete soon.

  3. Legal fixing of the electricity market price; Die juristische Bestimmung des Marktpreises fuer Strom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindner, Thomas

    2011-07-01

    The book attempts to analyze the problems of fixing electricity rates by law and to develop an approach for determining the market price for electricity. The focus is on industrial customers as this is the sector in which the market price is of practical relevance. Private customers are gone into if necessary, as is the stock market price. The main problem in determining the free market price is the very fact that it is free, i.e. in contrast to the stock market price it is not fixed and published officially. The book therefore analyzes the abstract preconditions for determining the free market price. (orig./RHM)

  4. Optimal designs of small CHP plants in a market with fluctuating electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, H.; Andersen, A.N.

    2005-01-01

    Combined Heat and Power production (CHP) are essential for implementation of the climate change response objectives in many countries. In an introduction period, small CHP plants have typically been offered fixed electricity prices, but in many countries, such pricing conditions are now being replaced by spot market prices. Consequently, new methodologies and tools for the optimisation of small CHP plant designs are needed. The small CHP plants in Denmark are already experienced in optimising their electricity production against the triple tariff, which has existed for almost 10 years. Consequently, the CHP plants have long term experience in organising when to switch on and off the CHP units in order to optimise their profit. Also, the CHP owners have long term experience in designing their plants. For instance, small CHP plants in Denmark have usually invested in excess capacity on the CHP units in combination with heat storage capacity. Thereby, the plants have increased their performance in order to optimise revenues. This paper presents the Danish experience with methodologies and software tools, which have been used to design investment and operation strategies for almost all small CHP plants in Denmark during the decade of the triple tariff. Moreover, the changes in such methodologies and tools in order to optimise performance in a market with fluctuating electricity prices are presented and discussed

  5. The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

  6. Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

    When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation

  7. Price Analysis of Railway Freight Transport under Marketing Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ying; Fang, Xiaoping; Chen, Zhiya

    Regarding the problems in the reform of the railway tariff system and the pricing of the transport, by means of assaying the influence of the price elasticity on the artifice used for price, this article proposed multiple regressive model which analyzed price elasticity quantitatively. This model conclude multi-factors which influences on the price elasticity, such as the averagely railway freight charge, the averagely freight haulage of proximate supersede transportation mode, the GDP per capita in the point of origin, and a series of dummy variable which can reflect the features of some productive and consume demesne. It can calculate the price elasticity of different classes in different domains, and predict the freight traffic volume on different rate levels. It can calculate confidence-level, and evaluate the relevance of each parameter to get rid of irrelevant or little relevant variables. It supplied a good theoretical basis for directing the pricing of transport enterprises in market economic conditions, which is suitable for railway freight, passenger traffic and other transportation manner as well. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software was used to calculate and analysis the example. This article realized the calculation by HYFX system(Ministry of Railways fund).

  8. North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2011-01-01

    Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-à-vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...

  9. World market integration of Vietnamese rice markets during the 2008 food price crisis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luckmann, J.; Ihle, R.; Kleinwechter, U.; Grethe, H.

    2015-01-01

    World market prices of rice have been subject to large fluctuations in recent years. In mid 2008, prices reached levels never seen before. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice and rice is also the main staple food of the country. Given the importance of rice for domestic food security, the Vietnamese

  10. Analysis of Marketing Channels and Price Effect to Rice Marketing Efficiency in Aceh, Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Yunus, Mukhlis; Syahputra, Hendra

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to empirically explore the influence of marketing channels and price to rice marketing efficiency in Aceh Province, Indonesia. Six hundreds farmers' households from six districts of rice production base in Aceh were selected for the samples and analysed using the structural equation modelling (SEM). This study has been successfully documented how inefficient was the marketing of rice in Aceh because the farmers still tended to choose higher level of marketing ch...

  11. Informational Efficiency in the USD/KRW Spot Market: Some Evidence from a Joint Runs Test and Foreigners’ Trading Rule Profits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changmo Ahn

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the USD/KRW spot market is efficient in processing new information by employing both the Runs Test and the foreigners' securities trading rule profitability approach. Excluding the period of 2008 financial crisis, the USD/KRW spot market is efficient in terms of close rates, but not efficient in terms of open rates. The foreigners' securities trading rule can also produce statistically significant profits if the trades are based on open prices, though not high. This implies that traders can predict future exchange rates, to some degree, with the information on foreign net purchases of securities in the Korean stock/ bond markets. If we consider the related interest differentials and transaction costs, however, the profits fade out to marginal level or below. This result implies that traders can expect the existence of predictability in the USD/KRW spot market, but not profitability.

  12. Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    We introduce a new mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, fractality, and our approach...... explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of Benth et al. (2007) and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based model and a fractal model. Further, through...... the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating - and making inference on - the degree of fractality. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial to accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model...

  13. Beneficiary price sensitivity in the Medicare prescription drug plan market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frakt, Austin B; Pizer, Steven D

    2010-01-01

    The Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) came into existence in 2006 as part of the Medicare prescription drug benefit. It is the most popular plan type among Medicare drug plans and large numbers of plans are available to all beneficiaries. In this article we present the first analysis of beneficiary price sensitivity in the PDP market. Our estimate of elasticity of enrollment with respect to premium, -1.45, is larger in magnitude than has been found in the Medicare HMO market. This high degree of beneficiary price sensitivity for PDPs is consistent with relatively low product differentiation, low fixed costs of entry in the PDP market, and the fact that, in contrast to changing HMOs, beneficiaries can select a PDP without disrupting doctor-patient relationships.

  14. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2012-03-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers.

  15. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers. PMID:22345238

  16. Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, Deborah; De Mello, Lurion

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading schemes aim to reduce the emissions in certain pollutants using a market based scheme where participants can buy and sell permits for these emissions. This paper analyses the efficiency of the two largest schemes in Australia, the NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Trading Scheme, through their effect on the electricity prices from 2004 to 2010. We use a long run structural modelling technique for the first time on this market. It provides a practical long-run approach to structural relationships which enable the determination of the effectiveness of the theoretical expectations of these schemes. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis finds that both schemes' emissions prices have little effect on electricity prices. Generalised impulse response function analysis support this finding indicating that when shocks are applied to electricity by the two schemes it returns to equilibrium very quickly. This indicates that these schemes are not having the effect anticipated in their legislation. - Highlights: • We analyse two emissions trading schemes in Australia. • We test for their effect on wholesale electricity prices. • The test uses generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis. • The tests find long run relationship between the variables in both the samples. • The short run-dynamics indicate that they play a minimal role in electricity prices

  17. Contributions to the financial mathematics of energy markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Permana, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis provides several contributions to quantitative finance for energy markets: electricity price modelling, implying oil price volatilities, pricing and hedging of exotic commodity options. Electricity spot prices are characterized by spikes (jumps) because electricity is non-storable. A

  18. Green pricing: Customer-oriented marketing of the electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, T.

    1998-01-01

    There are at present about 15 established projects launched by energy suppliers in Germany which deserve to be called ''green pricing'' marketing strategies, and about an equal number of further projects at various stages of development which also offer as a ''green'' incentive for customers electricity from renewable energy sources. Worldwide, there are about 50 established green pricing projects, offered primarily in the USA, Switzerland and the Netherlands, and in Germany. The targeted customers of these projects for the time being are exclusively households that cannot easily switch over to other than their local suppliers. It can be expected that with progressive market liberalisation in Great Britain, the USA and, finally, in Germany, competition for this customer group will rapidly increase the number of green pricing marketing projects in these countries. This is why the article here presents a thorough analysis of the specific features of green pricing contracts, their impact on enhanced development and application of the technology for electricity generation from renewables, and a forecast on future developments. (orig./CB) [de

  19. Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

    OpenAIRE

    Saber Talari; Miadreza Shafie-khah; Gerardo J. Osório; Fei Wang; Alireza Heidari; João P. S. Catalão

    2017-01-01

    Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind...

  20. Market value-oriented gas pricing in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eimermacher, T.

    1996-01-01

    In Germany, natural gas faces stiff competition from other types of energy. In many applications, natural gas is capable of replacing other fuels. In addition there is a growing gas-to-gas competition in some European countries, either through pipeline construction by a competitor as in Germany or by mandatory third-party access as in UK. Competition leads to market value-oriented energy pricing, which is particularly evident in Germany. For the consumer, this competitive situation ensures that natural gas can be obtained (and remains available in the long term) at competitive prices