WorldWideScience

Sample records for splitting tsunamis model

  1. Midway Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Midway Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a suite...

  2. Yakutat Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Yakutat, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  3. Bermuda Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Bermuda Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  4. Nawiliwili, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Nawiliwili, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  5. Neah Bay, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Neah Bay, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  6. Bar Harbor, ME Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Bar Harbor, Maine Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  7. Sitka, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sitka, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  8. Newport, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Newport, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  9. Wake Island Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Wake Island Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  10. Garibaldi, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Garibaldi, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  11. Keauhou, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Keauhou, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  12. Westport, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Westport, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  13. Daytona Beach, Florida Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Daytona Beach, Florida Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  14. Lahaina, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Lahaina, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  15. Fajardo, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Fajardo, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  16. Florence, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Florence, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  17. Ponce, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ponce, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  18. Shemya, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Shemya, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  19. Key West, Florida Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Key West, Florida Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  20. Montauk, New York Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Montauk, New York Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  1. Kodiak, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kodiak, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  2. Sand Point, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sand Point, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  3. Ocean City, Maryland Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ocean City, Maryland Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  4. Kahului, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kahului, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  5. Port Orford, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port Orford, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  6. Kailua-Kona, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kailua-Kona, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  7. Seward, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Seward, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  8. Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Seaside, Oregon Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  9. Apra Harbor, Guam Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Apra Harbor, Guam Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  10. Kihei, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Kihei, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  11. Adak, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Adak, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  12. Arecibo, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arecibo, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  13. San Juan, Puerto Rico Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Juan, Puerto Rico Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  14. Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  15. Palm Beach, Florida Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Palm Beach, Florida Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  16. Toke Point, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Toke Point, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  17. Hanalei, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hanalei, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  18. Homer, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Homer, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is...

  19. Nikolski, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Nikolski, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  20. Monterey, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Monterey, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  1. Port Alexander, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port Alexander, Alaska Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  2. La Push, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The La Push, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model....

  3. Haleiwa, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Haleiwa, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  4. Hilo, Hawaii Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hilo, Hawaii Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  5. Savannah, Georgia Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Savannah, Georgia Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  6. Morehead City, North Carolina Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Morehead City, North Carolina Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  7. Christiansted, Virgin Islands Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Christiansted, Virgin Islands Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  8. Arena Cove, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arena Cove, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  9. Atlantic City, New Jersey Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Atlantic City, New Jersey Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  10. Crescent City, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Crescent City, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  11. Charlotte Amalie, Virgin Islands Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Charlotte Amalie, Virgin Islands Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami...

  12. Pago Pago, American Samoa Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pago Pago, American Samoa Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  13. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  14. Los Angeles, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Los Angeles, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  15. Port Angeles, Washington Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port Angeles, Washington Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  16. Virginia Beach Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virginia Beach, Virginia Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  17. Cordova, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cordova, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  18. Nantucket, Massachusetts Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Nantucket, Massachusetts Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  19. Unalaska, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Unalaska, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  20. Santa Barbara, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Santa Barbara, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  1. Point Reyes, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Point Reyes, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  2. Port San Luis, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Port San Luis, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  3. Eureka, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Eureka, California Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  4. Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  5. San Francisco, California Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The San Francisco, California Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  6. Elfin Cove, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Elfin Cove, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  7. British Columbia, Canada Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The British Columbia, Canada Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  8. Chignik, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Chignik, Alaska Forecast Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST is a...

  9. Tsunami Casualty Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, H.

    2007-12-01

    More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

  10. Alternative Tsunami Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, A.; Lyatskaya, I.

    2009-01-01

    The interesting papers by Margaritondo (2005 "Eur. J. Phys." 26 401) and by Helene and Yamashita (2006 "Eur. J. Phys." 27 855) analysed the great Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 using a simple one-dimensional canal wave model, which was appropriate for undergraduate students in physics and related fields of discipline. In this paper, two additional,…

  11. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  12. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  13. Tsunami Risk Assessment Modelling in Chabahar Port, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delavar, M. R.; Mohammadi, H.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

    2017-09-01

    The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

  14. TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT MODELLING IN CHABAHAR PORT, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Delavar

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC, the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST. In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

  15. Tsunami Propagation Models Based on First Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-21

    geodesic lines from the epicenter shown in the figure are great circles with a longitudinal separation of 90o, which define a ‘ lune ’ that covers one...past which the waves begin to converge according to Model C. A tsunami propagating in this lune does not encounter any continental landmass until...2011 Japan tsunami in a lune of angle 90o with wavefronts at intervals of 5,000 km The 2011 Japan tsunami was felt throughout the Pacific Ocean

  16. Numerical modelling and evacuation strategies for tsunami awareness: lessons from the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami

    OpenAIRE

    Santos, Angela; Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Queirós, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    On October 28, 2012, an earthquake occurred offshore Canada, with a magnitude Mw of 7.8, triggering a tsunami that propagated through the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami numerical model results show it would not be expected to generate widespread inundation on Hawaii. Yet, two hours after the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) issued a tsunami warning to the state of Hawaii. Since the state was hit by several tsunamis in the past, regular siren exercises, tsuna...

  17. Peru 2007 tsunami runup observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Borrero, J. C.

    2008-05-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed in the immediate aftermath and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. The largest runup heights were measured in a sparsely populated desert area south of the Paracas Peninsula resulting in only 3 tsunami fatalities. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the presence of the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts in the region. The Peru tsunami is compared against recent mega-disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina.

  18. -Advanced Models for Tsunami and Rogue Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Pravica

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A wavelet , that satisfies the q-advanced differential equation for , is used to model N-wave oscillations observed in tsunamis. Although q-advanced ODEs may seem nonphysical, we present an application that model tsunamis, in particular the Japanese tsunami of March 11, 2011, by utilizing a one-dimensional wave equation that is forced by . The profile is similar to tsunami models in present use. The function is a wavelet that satisfies a q-advanced harmonic oscillator equation. It is also shown that another wavelet, , matches a rogue-wave profile. This is explained in terms of a resonance wherein two small amplitude forcing waves eventually lead to a large amplitude rogue. Since wavelets are used in the detection of tsunamis and rogues, the signal-analysis performance of and is examined on actual data.

  19. A comparison between two inundation models for the 25 Ooctober 2010 Mentawai Islands Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z.; Borrero, J. C.; Qiu, Q.; Hill, E. M.; Li, L.; Sieh, K. E.

    2011-12-01

    On 25 October 2010, an Mw~7.8 earthquake occurred on the Sumatra megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia, generating a tsunami which killed approximately 500 people. Following the event, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) initiated a post-tsunami field survey, collecting tsunami run-up data from more than 30 sites on Pagai Selatan, Pagai Utara and Sipora. The strongest tsunami effects were observed on several small islands offshore of Pagai Selatan, where runup exceeded 16 m. This presentation will focus on a detailed comparison between two tsunami propagation and inundation models: COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) and MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami). Simulations are initialized using fault models based on data from a 1-hz GPS system that measured co-seismic deformation throughout the region. Preliminary simulations suggest that 2-m vertical seafloor deformation over a reasonably large area is required to recreate most of the observed tsunami effects. Since the GPS data suggest that subsidence of the islands is small, this implies that the tsunami source region is somewhat narrower and located further offshore than described in recently published earthquake source models based on teleseismic inversions alone. We will also discuss issues such as bathymetric and topographic data preparation and the uncertainty in the modeling results due to the lack of high resolution bathymetry and topography in the study area.

  20. Modeling tsunamis induced by retrogressive submarine landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Harbitz, C. B.

    2015-12-01

    Enormous submarine landslides having volumes up to thousands of km3 and long run-out may cause tsunamis with widespread effects. Clay-rich landslides, such as Trænadjupet and Storegga offshore Norway commonly involve retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms that affect the tsunami generation. Therefore, such landslides may involve a large amount of smaller blocks. As a consequence, the failure mechanisms and release rate of the individual blocks are of importance for the tsunami generation. Previous attempts to model the tsunami generation due to retrogressive landslides are few, and limited to idealized conditions. Here, we review the basic effects of retrogression on tsunamigenesis in simple geometries. To this end, two different methods are employed for the landslide motion, a series block with pre-scribed time lags and kinematics, and a dynamic retrogressive model where the inter-block time lag is determined by the model. The effect of parameters such as time lag on wave-height, wave-length, and dispersion are discussed. Finally, we discuss how the retrogressive effects may have influenced the tsunamis due to large landslides such as the Storegga slide. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant number 231252 (Project TsunamiLand) and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

  1. Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

    2014-01-01

    The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

  2. Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... busy after a disaster. Use text messages or social media to communicate with family and friends. Shareables Tsunami ... Power Plants Pandemic Power Outages Radiological Dispersion Device Severe ...

  3. Mathematical Modelling of Tsunami Propagation | Eze | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The generation of tsunamis with the help of a simple dislocation model of an earthquake and their propagation in the basin are discussed. In this study, we examined the formation of a tsunami wave from an initial sea surface displacement similar to those obtained from earthquakes that have generated tsunami waves and ...

  4. The 15 August 2007 Peru tsunami runup observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Borrero, Jose C.; Broncano, Pablo; Ortega, Erick

    2008-05-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts to ensure successful self-evacuation.

  5. Numerical modelling and evacuation strategies for tsunami awareness: lessons from the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Santos

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available On October 28, 2012, an earthquake occurred offshore Canada, with a magnitude Mw of 7.8, triggering a tsunami that propagated through the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami numerical model results show it would not be expected to generate widespread inundation on Hawaii. Yet, two hours after the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC issued a tsunami warning to the state of Hawaii. Since the state was hit by several tsunamis in the past, regular siren exercises, tsunami hazard maps and other prevention measures are available for public use, revealing that residents are well prepared regarding tsunami evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, residents and tourists evacuated mostly by car, and because of that, heavy traffic was reported, showing that it was a non-viable option for evacuation. The tsunami caused minor damages on the coastline, and several car accidents were reported, with one fatality. In recent years, there has been a remarkable interest in tsunami impacts. However, if risk planners seem to be very knowledgeable about how to avoid or mitigate their potential harmful effects, they seem to disregard its integration with other sectors of human activity and other social factors.

  6. Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... created by an underwater disturbance. Causes include earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, or meteorites--chunks of rock from space that strike the surface of Earth. A tsunami can move hundreds of miles per ...

  7. Hydraulic experiment on formation mechanism of tsunami deposit and verification of sediment transport model for tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, A.; Takahashi, T.; Harada, K.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

    2017-12-01

    An underestimation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami caused serious damage in coastal area. Reconsideration for tsunami estimation needs knowledge of paleo tsunamis. The historical records of giant tsunamis are limited, because they had occurred infrequently. Tsunami deposits may include many of tsunami records and are expected to analyze paleo tsunamis. However, present research on tsunami deposits are not able to estimate the tsunami source and its magnitude. Furthermore, numerical models of tsunami and its sediment transport are also important. Takahashi et al. (1999) proposed a model of movable bed condition due to tsunamis, although it has some issues. Improvement of the model needs basic data on sediment transport and deposition. This study investigated the formation mechanism of tsunami deposit by hydraulic experiment using a two-dimensional water channel with slope. In a fixed bed condition experiment, velocity, water level and suspended load concentration were measured at many points. In a movable bed condition, effects of sand grains and bore wave on the deposit were examined. Yamamoto et al. (2016) showed deposition range varied with sand grain sizes. In addition, it is revealed that the range fluctuated by number of waves and wave period. The measurements of velocity and water level showed that flow was clearly different near shoreline and in run-up area. Large velocity by return flow was affected the amount of sand deposit near shoreline. When a cutoff wall was installed on the slope, the amount of sand deposit repeatedly increased and decreased. Especially, sand deposit increased where velocity decreased. Takahashi et al. (1999) adapted the proposed model into Kesennuma bay when the 1960 Chilean tsunami arrived, although the amount of sand transportation was underestimated. The cause of the underestimation is inferred that the velocity of this model was underestimated. A relationship between velocity and sediment transport has to be studied in detail, but

  8. Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

  9. NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE GLOBAL TSUNAMI: Indonesian Tsunami of 26 December 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zygmunt Kowalik

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A new model for the global tsunami computation is constructed. It includes a high order of approximation for the spatial derivatives. The boundary condition at the shore line is controlled by the total depth and can be set either to runup or to the zero normal velocity. This model, with spatial resolution of one minute, is applied to the tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the World Ocean from 80◦S to 69◦N. Because the computational domain includes close to 200 million grid points, a parallel version of the code was developed and run on a supercomputer. The high spatial resolution of one minute produces very small numerical dispersion even when tsunamis wave travel over large distances. Model results for the Indonesian tsunami show that the tsunami traveled to every location of the World Ocean. In the Indian Ocean the tsunami properties are related to the source function, i.e., to the magnitude of the bottom displacement and directional properties of the source. In the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, in the Pacific, and especially in the Atlantic, tsunami waves propagate over large distances by energy ducting over oceanic ridges. Tsunami energy is concentrated by long wave trapping over the oceanic ridges. Our computations show the Coriolis force plays a noticeable but secondary role in the trapping. Travel times obtained from computations as arrival of the first significant wave show a clear and consistent pattern only in the region of the high amplitude and in the simply connected domains. The tsunami traveled from Indonesia, around New Zealand, and into the Pacific Ocean. The path through the deep ocean to North America carried miniscule energy, while the stronger signal traveled a much longer distance via South Pacific ridges. The time difference between first signal and later signals strong enough to be recorded at North Pacific locations was several hours.

  10. Modeling of Tsunami Currents in Harbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, P. J.

    2010-12-01

    Extreme events, such as large wind waves and tsunamis, are well recognized as a damaging hazard to port and harbor facilities. Wind wave events, particularly those with long period spectral components or infragravity wave generation, can excite resonance inside harbors leading to both large vertical motions and strong currents. Tsunamis can cause great damage as well. The geometric amplification of these very long waves can create large vertical motions in the interior of a harbor. Additionally, if the tsunami is composed of a train of long waves, which it often is, resonance can be easily excited. These long wave motions create strong currents near the node locations of resonant motions, and when interacting with harbor structures such as breakwaters, can create intense turbulent rotational structures, typical in the form of large eddies or gyres. These gyres have tremendous transport potential, and have been observed to break mooring lines, and even cause ships to be trapped inside the rotation, moving helplessly with the flow until collision, grounding, or dissipation of the eddy (e.g. Okal et al., 2006). This presentation will introduce the traditional theory used to predict wave impacts on harbors, discussing both how these models are practically useful and in what types of situations require a more accurate tool. State-of-the-art numerical models will be introduced, with a focus on recent developments in Boussinesq-type modeling. The Boussinesq equations model can account the dispersive, turbulent and rotational flow properties frequently observed in nature. Also they have the ability to coupling currents and waves and can predict nonlinear wave propagation over uneven bottom from deep (or intermediate) water area to shallow water area. However, during the derivation of a 2D-horizontal equation set, some 3D flow features, such those driven by as the dispersive stresses and the effects of the unresolved small scale 3D turbulence, are excluded. Consequently

  11. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  12. Near Source 2007 Peru Tsunami Runup Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Broncano, P.; Ortega, E.

    2008-12-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights and massive inundation distances up to 2 km were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. As with all near field tsunamis, the waves struck within minutes of the massive ground shaking. Spontaneous evacuations coordinated by the Peruvian Coast Guard minimized the fatalities and illustrate the importance of community-based education and awareness programs. The residents of the fishing village Lagunilla were unaware of the tsunami hazard after an earthquake and did not evacuate, which resulted in 3 fatalities. Despite the relatively benign tsunami effects at Pisco from this event, the tsunami hazard for this city (and its liquefied natural gas terminal) cannot be underestimated. Between 1687 and 1868, the city of Pisco was destroyed 4 times by tsunami waves. Since then, two events (1974 and 2007) have resulted in partial inundation and moderate damage. The fact that potentially devastating tsunami runup heights were observed immediately south of the peninsula only serves to underscore this point.

  13. Split supersymmetry in unified models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta, Bhaskar; Mimura, Yukihiro

    2005-01-01

    In the context of split supersymmetry, the gaugino mass spectrum seems to be very important to satisfy the dark matter content of the universe and the gauge coupling unification. In this Letter, we have considered various sources of gaugino masses in the context of unified models. We show that the gaugino mass spectrum varies in different unification pictures. In the context of SU(5), we have found that the bino/wino mass ratio can be close to one at the weak scale which is helpful to satisfy the WMAP data. The gluino/wino mass ratio is also different from the usual scenario of unified gaugino masses. The gaugino masses can be around one TeV and m SUSY is chosen so that the gluino mass does not create any cosmological problem. In the context of the Pati-Salam model, we show that the gluino mass can be made very heavy even after maintaining the unification of the gauge couplings

  14. Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling - Concept to Practical Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Ian; Allsop, William; Robinson, David; Rossetto, Tiziana; McGovern, David; Todd, David

    2017-04-01

    Whilst many researchers have conducted simple 'tsunami impact' studies, few engineering tools are available to assess the onshore impacts of tsunami, with no agreed methods available to predict loadings on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Most previous impact studies have relied upon unrealistic waveforms (solitary or dam-break waves and bores) rather than full-duration tsunami waves, or have used simplified models of nearshore and over-land flows. Over the last 10+ years, pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory have been developed into an exciting and versatile technology, allowing the forces of real-world tsunami to be reproduced and measured in a laboratory environment for the first time. These devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example coastal defences and infrastructure. They have also reproduced full-duration tsunamis including Mercator 2004 and Tohoku 2011, both at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models of these tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences, pressures / forces on buildings, and scour at idealised buildings. This presentation will describe how these Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facilities within which they operate, and will present research results from three generations of Tsunami Simulators. Highlights of direct importance to natural hazard modellers and coastal engineers include measurements of wave run-up levels, forces on single and multiple buildings and comparison with previous theoretical predictions. Multiple buildings have two malign effects. The density of buildings to flow area (blockage ratio) increases water depths and flow velocities in the 'streets'. But the increased building densities themselves also increase the cost of flow per unit area (both personal and monetary). The most recent study with the Tsunami

  15. Hydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Lynett, P.J.; Chaytor, J.D.

    2009-01-01

    Tsunami generation from the Currituck landslide offshore North Carolina and propagation of waves toward the U.S. coastline are modeled based on recent geotechnical analysis of slide movement. A long and intermediate wave modeling package (COULWAVE) based on the non-linear Boussinesq equations are used to simulate the tsunami. This model includes procedures to incorporate bottom friction, wave breaking, and overland flow during runup. Potential tsunamis generated from the Currituck landslide are analyzed using four approaches: (1) tsunami wave history is calculated from several different scenarios indicated by geotechnical stability and mobility analyses; (2) a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the effects of both landslide failure duration during generation and bottom friction along the continental shelf during propagation; (3) wave history is calculated over a regional area to determine the propagation of energy oblique to the slide axis; and (4) a high-resolution 1D model is developed to accurately model wave breaking and the combined influence of nonlinearity and dispersion during nearshore propagation and runup. The primary source parameter that affects tsunami severity for this case study is landslide volume, with failure duration having a secondary influence. Bottom friction during propagation across the continental shelf has a strong influence on the attenuation of the tsunami during propagation. The high-resolution 1D model also indicates that the tsunami undergoes nonlinear fission prior to wave breaking, generating independent, short-period waves. Wave breaking occurs approximately 40-50??km offshore where a tsunami bore is formed that persists during runup. These analyses illustrate the complex nature of landslide tsunamis, necessitating the use of detailed landslide stability/mobility models and higher-order hydrodynamic models to determine their hazard.

  16. Tsunami simulation of 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake. Evaluation of difference in tsunami wave pressure acting around Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Station among different tsunami source models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujihara, Satoru; Hashimoto, Norihiko; Korenaga, Mariko; Tamiya, Takahiro

    2016-01-01

    Since the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, evaluations based on a tsunami simulation approach have had a very important role in promoting tsunami disaster prevention measures in the case of mega-thrust earthquakes. When considering tsunami disaster prevention measures based on the knowledge obtained from tsunami simulations, it is important to carefully examine the type of tsunami source model. In current tsunami simulations, there are various ways to set the tsunami source model, and a considerable difference in tsunami behavior can be expected among the tsunami source models. In this study, we carry out a tsunami simulation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake around Fukushima Daiichi (I) Nuclear Power Plant and Fukushima Daini (II) Nuclear Power Plant in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, using several tsunami source models, and evaluate the difference in the tsunami behavior in the tsunami inundation process. The results show that for an incoming tsunami inundating an inland region, there are considerable relative differences in the maximum tsunami height and wave pressure. This suggests that there could be false information used in promoting tsunami disaster prevention measures in the case of mega-thrust earthquakes, depending on the tsunami source model. (author)

  17. Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

    2017-08-01

    As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

  18. Standard Model Particles from Split Octonions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gogberashvili M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We model physical signals using elements of the algebra of split octonions over the field of real numbers. Elementary particles are corresponded to the special elements of the algebra that nullify octonionic norms (zero divisors. It is shown that the standard model particle spectrum naturally follows from the classification of the independent primitive zero divisors of split octonions.

  19. Split supersymmetry in brane models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Type-I string theory in the presence of internal magnetic fields provides a concrete realization of split ... quantum picture of the Universe. It was then ... where the integers m, n correspond to the respective magnetic and electric charges; m is the ...

  20. Tsunami Forecasting: The 10 August 2009 Andaman tsunami Demonstrates Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, Vasily; Moore, Christopher; Uslu, Burak; Kanoglu, Utku

    2010-05-01

    The 10 August 2009 Andaman non-destructive tsunami in the Indian Ocean demonstrated advances in creating a tsunami-resilient global society. Following the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) developed an interface for its validated and verified tsunami numerical model Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST). MOST has been benchmarked substantially through analytical solutions, experimental results and field measurements (Synolakis et al., 2008). MOST and its interface the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) are distributed through extensive capacity-building sessions for the Indian Ocean nations using UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), AusAID, and USAID funding. Over one hundred-sixty scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. During the 10 August 2009 Andaman tsunami event, NCTR scientists exercised the forecast system in research mode using the first generation inundation models developed during ComMIT trainings. Assimilating key data from a Kingdom of Thailand tsunameter, coastal tsunami amplitudes were predicted in Indonesia, Thailand, and India coastlines, before the first tsunami arrival, using models developed by ComMIT trainees. Since its first test in 2003, one more time, NCTR's forecasting methodology proved the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models (Wei et al., 2008 and Titov, 2009). The 2009 Andaman tsunami demonstrated that operational tsunami forecasting tools are now available and coupled with inundation mapping tools can be effective and can reduce false alarms. International collaboration is required to fully utilize this technology's potential. Enhanced educational efforts both at

  1. Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.

    2017-12-01

    An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding

  2. Tsunami-hazard assessment based on subaquatic slope-failure susceptibility and tsunami-inundation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselmetti, Flavio; Hilbe, Michael; Strupler, Michael; Baumgartner, Christoph; Bolz, Markus; Braschler, Urs; Eberli, Josef; Liniger, Markus; Scheiwiller, Peter; Strasser, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Due to their smaller dimensions and confined bathymetry, lakes act as model oceans that may be used as analogues for the much larger oceans and their margins. Numerous studies in the perialpine lakes of Central Europe have shown that their shores were repeatedly struck by several-meters-high tsunami waves, which were caused by subaquatic slides usually triggered by earthquake shaking. A profound knowledge of these hazards, their intensities and recurrence rates is needed in order to perform thorough tsunami-hazard assessment for the usually densely populated lake shores. In this context, we present results of a study combining i) basinwide slope-stability analysis of subaquatic sediment-charged slopes with ii) identification of scenarios for subaquatic slides triggered by seismic shaking, iii) forward modeling of resulting tsunami waves and iv) mapping of intensity of onshore inundation in populated areas. Sedimentological, stratigraphical and geotechnical knowledge of the potentially unstable sediment drape on the slopes is required for slope-stability assessment. Together with critical ground accelerations calculated from already failed slopes and paleoseismic recurrence rates, scenarios for subaquatic sediment slides are established. Following a previously used approach, the slides are modeled as a Bingham plastic on a 2D grid. The effect on the water column and wave propagation are simulated using the shallow-water equations (GeoClaw code), which also provide data for tsunami inundation, including flow depth, flow velocity and momentum as key variables. Combining these parameters leads to so called «intensity maps» for flooding that provide a link to the established hazard mapping framework, which so far does not include these phenomena. The current versions of these maps consider a 'worst case' deterministic earthquake scenario, however, similar maps can be calculated using probabilistic earthquake recurrence rates, which are expressed in variable amounts of

  3. Baryons electromagnetic mass splittings in potential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genovese, M.; Richard, J.-M.; Silvestre-Brac, B.; Varga, K.

    1998-01-01

    We study electromagnetic mass splittings of charmed baryons. We point out discrepancies among theoretical predictions in non-relativistic potential models; none of these predictions seems supported by experimental data. A new calculation is presented

  4. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E.

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  5. Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.; Soewono, E. [Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Civil Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Department of Mathematics Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

    2012-05-22

    Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuate people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.

  6. Modelling of Charles Darwin's tsunami reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great 1835 earthquake. He described his impressions and results of the earthquake-induced natural catastrophe in The Voyage of the Beagle. His description of the tsunami could easily be read as a report from Indonesia or Sri Lanka, after the catastrophic tsunami of 26 December 2004. In particular, Darwin emphasised the dependence of earthquake-induced waves on a form of the coast and the coastal depth: ‘… Talcuhano and Callao are situated at the head of great shoaling bays, and they have always suffered from this phenomenon; whereas, the town of Valparaiso, which is seated close on the border of a profound ocean... has never been overwhelmed by one of these terrific deluges…' . He reports also, that ‘… the whole body of the sea retires from the coast, and then returns in great waves of overwhelming force ...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). The coastal evolution of a tsunami was analytically studied in many publications (see, for example, Synolakis, C.E., Bernard, E.N., 2006. Philos. Trans. R. Soc., Ser. A, 364, 2231-2265; Tinti, S., Tonini, R. 205. J.Fluid Mech., 535, 11-21). However, the Darwin's reports and the influence of the coastal depth on the formation and the evolution of the steep front and the profile of tsunami did not practically discuss. Recently, a mathematical theory of these phenomena was presented in researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474. The theory describes the waves which are excited due to nonlinear effects within a shallow coastal zone. The tsunami elevation is described by two components: . Here is the linear (prime) component. It describes the wave coming from the deep ocean. is the nonlinear component. This component may become very important near the coastal line. After that the theory of the shallow waves is used. This theory yields the linear equation for and the weakly

  7. Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

    2017-08-01

    Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

  8. A Tsunami Model for Chile for (Re) Insurance Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arango, Cristina; Rara, Vaclav; Puncochar, Petr; Trendafiloski, Goran; Ewing, Chris; Podlaha, Adam; Vatvani, Deepak; van Ormondt, Maarten; Chandler, Adrian

    2014-05-01

    Catastrophe models help (re)insurers to understand the financial implications of catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. In earthquake-prone regions such as Chile,(re)insurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify the risks facing their businesses, including models with the ability to estimate secondary losses. The 2010 (M8.8) Maule (Chile) earthquake highlighted the need for quantifying losses from secondary perils such as tsunamis, which can contribute to the overall event losses but are not often modelled. This paper presents some key modelling aspects of a new earthquake catastrophe model for Chile developed by Impact Forecasting in collaboration with Aon Benfield Research partners, focusing on the tsunami component. The model has the capability to model tsunami as a secondary peril - losses due to earthquake (ground-shaking) and induced tsunamis along the Chilean coast are quantified in a probabilistic manner, and also for historical scenarios. The model is implemented in the IF catastrophe modelling platform, ELEMENTS. The probabilistic modelling of earthquake-induced tsunamis uses a stochastic event set that is consistent with the seismic (ground shaking) hazard developed for Chile, representing simulations of earthquake occurrence patterns for the region. Criteria for selecting tsunamigenic events (from the stochastic event set) are proposed which take into consideration earthquake location, depth and the resulting seabed vertical displacement and tsunami inundation depths at the coast. The source modelling software RuptGen by Babeyko (2007) was used to calculate static seabed vertical displacement resulting from earthquake slip. More than 3,600 events were selected for tsunami simulations. Deep and shallow water wave propagation is modelled using the Delft3D modelling suite, which is a state-of-the-art software developed by Deltares. The Delft3D-FLOW module is used in 2-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation settings with non-steady flow

  9. Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

    2014-12-01

    The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

  10. A well-balanced meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecht, Rüdiger; Bihlo, Alexander; MacLachlan, Scott; Behrens, Jörn

    2018-05-01

    We present a novel meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model. We discretize the nonlinear shallow-water equations using a well-balanced scheme relying on radial basis function based finite differences. For the inundation model, radial basis functions are used to extrapolate the dry region from nearby wet points. Numerical results against standard one- and two-dimensional benchmarks are presented.

  11. Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

    OpenAIRE

    Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

    2017-01-01

    Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a dept...

  12. The 2017 México Tsunami Record, Numerical Modeling and Threat Assessment in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia

    2018-03-01

    An M w 8.2 earthquake and tsunami occurred offshore the Pacific coast of México on 2017-09-08, at 04:49 UTC. Costa Rican tide gauges have registered a total of 21 local, regional and far-field tsunamis. The Quepos gauge registered 12 tsunamis between 1960 and 2014 before it was relocated inside a harbor by late 2014, where it registered two more tsunamis. This paper analyzes the 2017 México tsunami as recorded by the Quepos gauge. It took 2 h for the tsunami to arrive to Quepos, with a first peak height of 9.35 cm and a maximum amplitude of 18.8 cm occurring about 6 h later. As a decision support tool, this tsunami was modeled for Quepos in real time using ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) with the finer grid having a resolution of 1 arcsec ( 30 m). However, the model did not replicate the tsunami record well, probably due to the lack of a finer and more accurate bathymetry. In 2014, the National Tsunami Monitoring System of Costa Rica (SINAMOT) was created, acting as a national tsunami warning center. The occurrence of the 2017 México tsunami raised concerns about warning dissemination mechanisms for most coastal communities in Costa Rica, due to its short travel time.

  13. MODELING THE 1958 LITUYA BAY MEGA-TSUNAMI, II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles L. Mader

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Lituya Bay, Alaska is a T-Shaped bay, 7 miles long and up to 2 miles wide. The two arms at the head of the bay, Gilbert and Crillon Inlets, are part of a trench along the Fairweather Fault. On July 8, 1958, an 7.5 Magnitude earthquake occurred along the Fairweather fault with an epicenter near Lituya Bay.A mega-tsunami wave was generated that washed out trees to a maximum altitude of 520 meters at the entrance of Gilbert Inlet. Much of the rest of the shoreline of the Bay was denuded by the tsunami from 30 to 200 meters altitude.In the previous study it was determined that if the 520 meter high run-up was 50 to 100 meters thick, the observed inundation in the rest of Lituya Bay could be numerically reproduced. It was also concluded that further studies would require full Navier-Stokes modeling similar to those required for asteroid generated tsunami waves.During the Summer of 2000, Hermann Fritz conducted experiments that reproduced the Lituya Bay 1958 event. The laboratory experiments indicated that the 1958 Lituya Bay 524 meter run-up on the spur ridge of Gilbert Inlet could be caused by a landslide impact.The Lituya Bay impact landslide generated tsunami was modeled with the full Navier- Stokes AMR Eulerian compressible hydrodynamic code called SAGE with includes the effect of gravity.

  14. Observations and Modeling of the August 27, 2012 Earthquake and Tsunami affecting El Salvador and Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero, Jose C.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick J.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Newman, Andrew V.; Convers, Jaime A.

    2014-12-01

    On 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 p.m. local time) a magnitude M w = 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of El Salvador and generated surprisingly large local tsunami. Following the event, local and international tsunami teams surveyed the tsunami effects in El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. The tsunami reached a maximum height of ~6 m with inundation of up to 340 m inland along a 25 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. Less severe inundation was reported in northern Nicaragua. In the far-field, the tsunami was recorded by a DART buoy and tide gauges in several locations of the eastern Pacific Ocean but did not cause any damage. The field measurements and recordings are compared to numerical modeling results using initial conditions of tsunami generation based on finite-fault earthquake and tsunami inversions and a uniform slip model.

  15. A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

    2018-04-01

    Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring

  16. Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šepić, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.

    2018-04-01

    On 27 June, a 1-2-m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk (northwestern Black Sea). Throughout the day, prominent seiche oscillations were observed in several other ports of the Black Sea. Tsunamigenic synoptic conditions were found over the Black Sea, stretching from Romania in the west to the Crimean Peninsula in the east. Intense air pressure disturbances and convective thunderstorm clouds were associated with these conditions; right at the time of the event, a 1.5-hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa and a few hours earlier in Romania. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypotheses: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa ("Experiment 1"); (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating offshore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa, and along the shelf break ("Experiment 2"). Both experiments decisively confirm the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and imply that intensified long ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014 was identified as a "beach meteotsunami", similar to events regularly observed on the beaches of Florida, USA, but different from the "harbour meteotsunamis", which occurred 1-3 days earlier in Ciutadella (Baleares, Spain), Mazara del Vallo (Sicily, Italy) and Vela Luka (Croatia) in the Mediterranean Sea, despite that they were associated with the same atmospheric system moving over the Mediterranean/Black Sea region on 23-27 June 2014.

  17. Near Field Modeling for the Maule Tsunami from DART, GPS and Finite Fault Solutions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcas, D.; Chamberlin, C.; Lagos, M.; Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Tang, L.; Wei, Y.

    2010-12-01

    The earthquake and tsunami of February, 27, 2010 in central Chile has rekindled an interest in developing techniques to predict the impact of near field tsunamis along the Chilean coastline. Following the earthquake, several initiatives were proposed to increase the density of seismic, pressure and motion sensors along the South American trench, in order to provide field data that could be used to estimate tsunami impact on the coast. However, the precise use of those data in the elaboration of a quantitative assessment of coastal tsunami damage has not been clarified. The present work makes use of seismic, Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®) systems, and GPS measurements obtained during the Maule earthquake to initiate a number of tsunami inundation models along the rupture area by expressing different versions of the seismic crustal deformation in terms of NOAA’s tsunami unit source functions. Translation of all available real-time data into a feasible tsunami source is essential in near-field tsunami impact prediction in which an impact assessment must be generated under very stringent time constraints. Inundation results from each different source are then contrasted with field and tide gauge data by comparing arrival time, maximum wave height, maximum inundation and tsunami decay rate, using field data collected by the authors.

  18. Markov branching in the vertex splitting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefánsson, Sigurdur Örn

    2012-01-01

    We study a special case of the vertex splitting model which is a recent model of randomly growing trees. For any finite maximum vertex degree D, we find a one parameter model, with parameter α element of [0,1] which has a so-called Markov branching property. When D=∞ we find a two parameter model with an additional parameter γ element of [0,1] which also has this feature. In the case D = 3, the model bears resemblance to Ford's α-model of phylogenetic trees and when D=∞ it is similar to its generalization, the αγ-model. For α = 0, the model reduces to the well known model of preferential attachment. In the case α > 0, we prove convergence of the finite volume probability measures, generated by the growth rules, to a measure on infinite trees which is concentrated on the set of trees with a single spine. We show that the annealed Hausdorff dimension with respect to the infinite volume measure is 1/α. When γ = 0 the model reduces to a model of growing caterpillar graphs in which case we prove that the Hausdorff dimension is almost surely 1/α and that the spectral dimension is almost surely 2/(1 + α). We comment briefly on the distribution of vertex degrees and correlations between degrees of neighbouring vertices

  19. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin

    2015-01-01

    distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry

  20. Model validation and error estimation of tsunami runup using high resolution data in Sadeng Port, Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basith, Abdul; Prakoso, Yudhono; Kongko, Widjo

    2017-07-01

    A tsunami model using high resolution geometric data is indispensable in efforts to tsunami mitigation, especially in tsunami prone areas. It is one of the factors that affect the accuracy results of numerical modeling of tsunami. Sadeng Port is a new infrastructure in the Southern Coast of Java which could potentially hit by massive tsunami from seismic gap. This paper discusses validation and error estimation of tsunami model created using high resolution geometric data in Sadeng Port. Tsunami model validation uses the height wave of Tsunami Pangandaran 2006 recorded by Tide Gauge of Sadeng. Tsunami model will be used to accommodate the tsunami numerical modeling involves the parameters of earthquake-tsunami which is derived from the seismic gap. The validation results using t-test (student) shows that the height of the tsunami modeling results and observation in Tide Gauge of Sadeng are considered statistically equal at 95% confidence level and the value of the RMSE and NRMSE are 0.428 m and 22.12%, while the differences of tsunami wave travel time is 12 minutes.

  1. Tsunami Hockey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    An important issue that vexes tsunami warning centers (TWCs) is when to cancel a tsunami warning once it is in effect. Emergency managers often face a variety of pressures to allow the public to resume their normal activities, but allowing coastal populations to return too quickly can put them at risk. A TWC must, therefore, exercise caution when cancelling a warning. Kim and Whitmore (2013) show that in many cases a TWC can use the decay of tsunami oscillations in a harbor to forecast when its amplitudes will fall to safe levels. This technique should prove reasonably robust for local tsunamis (those that are potentially dangerous within only 100 km of their source region) and for regional tsunamis (whose danger is limited to within 1000km of the source region) as well. For ocean-crossing destructive tsunamis such as the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, however, this technique may be inadequate. When a tsunami propagates across the ocean basin, it will encounter topographic obstacles such as seamount chains or coastlines, resulting in coherent reflections that can propagate great distances. When these reflections reach previously-impacted coastlines, they can recharge decaying tsunami oscillations and make them hazardous again. Warning center scientists should forecast sea-level records for 24 hours beyond the initial tsunami arrival in order to observe any potential reflections that may pose a hazard. Animations are a convenient way to visualize reflections and gain a broad geographic overview of their impacts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has developed tools based on tsunami simulations using the RIFT tsunami forecast model. RIFT is a linear, parallelized numerical tsunami propagation model that runs very efficiently on a multi-CPU system (Wang et al, 2012). It can simulate 30-hours of tsunami wave propagation in the Pacific Ocean at 4 arc minute resolution in approximately 6 minutes of real time on a 12-CPU system. Constructing a 30-hour animation using 1

  2. Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling Laboratories - From Concept to Proven Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allsop, W.; Chandler, I.; Rossetto, T.; McGovern, D.; Petrone, C.; Robinson, D.

    2016-12-01

    Before 2004, there was little public awareness around Indian Ocean coasts of the potential size and effects of tsunami. Even in 2011, the scale and extent of devastation by the Japan East Coast Tsunami was unexpected. There were very few engineering tools to assess onshore impacts of tsunami, so no agreement on robust methods to predict forces on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Modelling generally used substantial simplifications of either solitary waves (far too short durations) or dam break (unrealistic and/or uncontrolled wave forms).This presentation will describe research from EPI-centre, HYDRALAB IV, URBANWAVES and CRUST projects over the last 10 years that have developed and refined pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory. These unique devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example defences. They have reproduced full-duration tsunamis including the Mercator trace from 2004 at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models subjected to those tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences and pressures / forces on buildings. This presentation will describe how these pneumatic Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facility within which they operate, and will highlight research results from the three generations of Tsunami Simulator. Of direct relevance to engineers and modellers will be measurements of wave run-up levels and comparison with theoretical predictions. Recent measurements of forces on individual buildings have been generalized by separate experiments on buildings (up to 4 rows) which show that the greatest forces can act on the landward (not seaward) buildings. Continuing research in the 70m long 4m wide Fast Flow Facility on tsunami defence structures have also measured forces on buildings in the lee of a failed defence wall.

  3. Modelling of historical tsunami in Eastern Indonesia: 1674 Ambon and 1992 Flores case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pranantyo, Ignatius Ryan; Cummins, Phil; Griffin, Jonathan; Davies, Gareth; Latief, Hamzah

    2017-07-01

    In order to reliably assess tsunami hazard in eastern Indonesia, we need to understand how historical events were generated. Here we consider two such events: the 1674 Ambon and the 1992 Flores tsunamis. Firstly, Ambon Island suffered a devastating earthquake that generated a tsunami with 100 m run-up height on the north coast of the island in 1674. However, there is no known active fault around the island capable of generating such a gigantic wave. Rumphius' report describes that the initial wave was coming from three villages that collapsed immediately after the earthquake with width as far as a musket shot. Moreover, a very high tsunami was only observed locally. We suspect that a submarine landslide was the main cause of the gigantic tsunami on the north side of Ambon Island. Unfortunately, there is no data available to confirm if landslide have occurred in this region. Secondly, several tsunami source models for the 1992 Flores event have been suggested. However, the fault strike is quite different compare to the existing Flores back-arc thrust and has not been well validated against a tide gauge waveform at Palopo, Sulawesi. We considered a tsunami model based on Griffin, et al., 2015, extended with high resolution bathymetry laround Palopo, in order to validate the latest tsunami source model available. In general, the model produces a good agreement with tsunami waveforms, but arrives 10 minutes late compared to observed data. In addition, the source overestimates the tsunami inundation west of Maumere, and does not account for the presumed landslide tsunami on the east side of Flores Island.

  4. Sensitivity study of the Storegga Slide tsunami using retrogressive and visco-plastic rheology models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jihwan; Løvholt, Finn

    2016-04-01

    Enormous submarine landslides having volumes up to thousands of km3 and long run-out may cause tsunamis with widespread effects. Clay-rich landslides, such as Trænadjupet and Storegga offshore Norway commonly involve retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms that affect the tsunami generation. As a consequence, the failure mechanisms, soil parameters, and release rate of the retrogression are of importance for the tsunami generation. Previous attempts to model the tsunami generation due to retrogressive landslides are few, and limited to idealized conditions. Here, a visco-plastic model including additional effects such as remolding, time dependent mass release, and hydrodynamic resistance, is employed for simulating the Storegga Slide. As landslide strength parameters and their evolution in time are uncertain, it is necessary to conduct a sensitivity study to shed light on the tsunamigenic processes. The induced tsunami is simulated using Geoclaw. We also compare our tsunami simulations with recent analysis conducted using a pure retrogressive model for the landslide, as well as previously published results using a block model. The availability of paleotsunami run-up data and detailed slide deposits provides a suitable background for improved understanding of the slide mechanics and tsunami generation. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant number 231252 (Project TsunamiLand) and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

  5. Coastal Amplification Laws for the French Tsunami Warning Center: Numerical Modeling and Fast Estimate of Tsunami Wave Heights Along the French Riviera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.

    2018-04-01

    Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

  6. Research to Operations: From Point Positions, Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling to GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2

  7. Should tsunami models use a nonzero initial condition for horizontal velocity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, G.; Lotto, G. C.; Dunham, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require two initial conditions: one on sea surface height and another on depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). We run several full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor, using both idealized structures and a more realistic Tohoku structure. Substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean, but almost all momentum is carried away in the form of ocean acoustic waves. We compare tsunami propagation in each full-physics simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial conditions. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves (from ocean acoustic and seismic waves) at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami

  8. Mathematical modelling of tsunami impacts on critical infrastructures: exposure and severity associated with debris transport at Sines port, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Daniel; Baptista, Maria Ana; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Ferreira, Rui M. L.

    2015-04-01

    a flux-splitting technique with a reviewed Roe-Riemann solver and appropriate source-term formulations to ensure full conservativeness. Additionally, STAV-2D features Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling enabling solid transport simulation under both continuum and discrete approaches, and has been validated with both laboratory data and paleo-tsunami evidence (Conde, 2013a; Conde, 2013b). The interactions between the inundating flow and coal stockpiles or natural mobile bed reaches were simulated using a continuum debris-flow approach, featuring fractional solid transport, while the containers at the new terminal were advected with an explicit Lagrangian method. The meshwork employed at the port models the existing geometry and structures in great detail, enabling explicitly resolved interactions between the current infrastructure and the overland propagating tsunami. The obtained preliminary results suggest that several structures, some of them critical in a nationwide context, are exposed to tsunami actions. The coal deposition pattern and the final location of monitored containers were determined for two magnitude scenarios (8.5 Mw and 9.5 Mw) in the case of a tsunami generated at the Horseshoe fault and one magnitude scenario (9.5 Mw) for a tsunami generated at the Gorringe bank. The inland washing of the coal stockpiles may impose great loss of both economical and environmental value, while the impact of large mobile debris, such as the containers in the terminal area, significantly increases the severity of infrastructural damage. Acknowledgements This work was partially funded by FEDER, program COMPETE, and by national funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) with project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012. References Baptista M.A. & Miranda, J.M. (2009), Revision of the Portuguese catalog of tsunamis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 25-42. Canelas, R.; Murillo, J. & Ferreira, R.M.L. (2013), Two-dimensional depth-averaged modelling of dam

  9. An evaluation of onshore digital elevation models for tsunami inundation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Kongko, W.; Harig, S.; Horspool, N.; Hanung, R.; Rojali, A.; Maher, N.; Fountain, L.; Fuchs, A.; Hossen, J.; Upi, S.; Dewanto, S. E.; Cummins, P. R.

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami inundation models provide fundamental information about coastal areas that may be inundated in the event of a tsunami along with additional parameters such as flow depth and velocity. This can inform disaster management activities including evacuation planning, impact and risk assessment and coastal engineering. A fundamental input to tsunami inundation models is adigital elevation model (DEM). Onshore DEMs vary widely in resolution, accuracy, availability and cost. A proper assessment of how the accuracy and resolution of DEMs translates into uncertainties in modelled inundation is needed to ensure results are appropriately interpreted and used. This assessment can in turn informdata acquisition strategies depending on the purpose of the inundation model. For example, lower accuracy elevation data may give inundation results that are sufficiently accurate to plan a community's evacuation route but not sufficient to inform engineering of a vertical evacuation shelters. A sensitivity study is undertaken to assess the utility of different available onshore digital elevation models for tsunami inundation modelling. We compare airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IFSAR), ASTER and SRTM against high resolution (historical tsunami run-up data. Large vertical errors (> 10 m) and poor resolution of the coastline in the ASTER and SRTM elevation models cause modelled inundation to be much less compared with models using better data and with observations. Therefore we recommend that ASTER and SRTM should not be used for modelling tsunami inundation in order to determine tsunami extent or any other measure of onshore tsunami hazard. We suggest that for certain disaster management applications where the important factor is the extent of inundation, such as evacuation planning, airborne IFSAR provides a good compromise between cost and accuracy; however the representation of flow parameters such as depth and velocity is not sufficient to inform detailed

  10. A Self-Consistent Fault Slip Model for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Lay, Thorne

    2018-02-01

    The unprecedented geophysical and hydrographic data sets from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami have facilitated numerous modeling and inversion analyses for a wide range of dislocation models. Significant uncertainties remain in the slip distribution as well as the possible contribution of tsunami excitation from submarine slumping or anelastic wedge deformation. We seek a self-consistent model for the primary teleseismic and tsunami observations through an iterative approach that begins with downsampling of a finite fault model inverted from global seismic records. Direct adjustment of the fault displacement guided by high-resolution forward modeling of near-field tsunami waveform and runup measurements improves the features that are not satisfactorily accounted for by the seismic wave inversion. The results show acute sensitivity of the runup to impulsive tsunami waves generated by near-trench slip. The adjusted finite fault model is able to reproduce the DART records across the Pacific Ocean in forward modeling of the far-field tsunami as well as the global seismic records through a finer-scale subfault moment- and rake-constrained inversion, thereby validating its ability to account for the tsunami and teleseismic observations without requiring an exotic source. The upsampled final model gives reasonably good fits to onshore and offshore geodetic observations albeit early after-slip effects and wedge faulting that cannot be reliably accounted for. The large predicted slip of over 20 m at shallow depth extending northward to 39.7°N indicates extensive rerupture and reduced seismic hazard of the 1896 tsunami earthquake zone, as inferred to varying extents by several recent joint and tsunami-only inversions.

  11. Signals in the ionosphere generated by tsunami earthquakes: observations and modeling suppor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, L.; Sladen, A.; Mikesell, D.; Larmat, C. S.; Rakoto, V.; Remillieux, M.; Lee, R.; Khelfi, K.; Lognonne, P. H.; Astafyeva, E.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting systems failed to predict the magnitude of the 2011 great tsunami in Japan due to the difficulty and cost of instrumenting the ocean with high-quality and dense networks. Melgar et al. (2013) show that using all of the conventional data (inland seismic, geodetic, and tsunami gauges) with the best inversion method still fails to predict the correct height of the tsunami before it breaks onto a coast near the epicenter (Even though typical tsunami waves are only a few centimeters high, they are powerful enough to create atmospheric vibrations extending all the way to the ionosphere, 300 kilometers up in the atmosphere. Therefore, we are proposing to incorporate the ionospheric signals into tsunami early-warning systems. We anticipate that the method could be decisive for mitigating "tsunami earthquakes" which trigger tsunamis larger than expected from their short-period magnitude. These events are challenging to characterize as they rupture the near-trench subduction interface, in a distant region less constrained by onshore data. As a couple of devastating tsunami earthquakes happens per decade, they represent a real threat for onshore populations and a challenge for tsunami early-warning systems. We will present the TEC observations of the recent Java 2006 and Mentawaii 2010 tsunami earthquakes and base our analysis on acoustic ray tracing, normal modes summation and the simulation code SPECFEM, which solves the wave equation in coupled acoustic (ocean, atmosphere) and elastic (solid earth) domains. Rupture histories are entered as finite source models, which will allow us to evaluate the effect of a relatively slow rupture on the surrounding ocean and atmosphere.

  12. Numerical modeling of the 1964 Alaska tsunami in western Passage Canal and Whittier, Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Nicolsky

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A numerical model of the wave dynamics in Passage Canal, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 megathrust earthquake is presented. During the earthquake, several types of waves were identified at the city of Whittier, located at the head of Passage Canal. The first wave is thought to have been a seiche, while the other two waves were probably triggered by submarine landslides. We model the seiche wave, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami in Passage Canal and compute inundation by each type of wave during the 1964 event. Modeled results are compared with eyewitness reports and an observed inundation line. Results of the numerical experiments let us identify where the submarine landslides might have occurred during the 1964 event. We identify regions at the head and along the northern shore of Passage Canal, where landslides triggered a wave that caused most of the damage in Whittier. An explanation of the fact that the 1964 tectonic tsunami in Whittier was unnoticed is presented as well. The simulated inundation by the seiche, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami can help to mitigate tsunami hazards and prepare Whittier for a potential tsunami.

  13. Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2015-01-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26

  14. TSUNAMI DEPOSITS AT QUEEN’S BEACH, OAHU, HAWAII – INITIALRESULTS AND WAVE MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Barbara Keating

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Photographs taken immediately after the 1946 Aleutian Tsunami inundated Queen’s Beach, southeastern Oahu, show the major highway around the island was inundated and the road bed was destroyed. That road bed remains visible today, in an undeveloped coastline that shows like change in sedimentary deposits between 1946 and today (based on photographic evidence. Tsunami catalog records however indicate that the beach was repeatedly inundated by tsunami in 1946, 1952, 1957, and 1960. Tsunami runup was reported to have reached between 3 and 11 m elevation. Eyewitness accounts however indicate inundations of up to 20 m in Kealakipapa Valley (Makapu’u Lookout during 1946 and photographic evidence indicated inundation reached 9 m in 1957. The inundation of Kealakipapa Valley has been successfully modeled using a 10-m tsunami wave model.A comparison of the modern beach deposits to those near the remains of the destroyed highway demonstrate that the sedimentary deposits within the two areas have very different rock characteristics. We conclude the modern beach is dominated by the rounding of rocks (mostly coral by wave activity. However, in the area that has experienced prior tsunami inundations, the rocks are characterized by fracturing and a high component of basaltic material. We conclude the area near the destroyed highway reflects past tsunami inundations combined with inevitable anthropogenic alteration.

  15. Tsunami simulation using submarine displacement calculated from simulation of ground motion due to seismic source model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akiyama, S.; Kawaji, K.; Fujihara, S.

    2013-12-01

    Since fault fracturing due to an earthquake can simultaneously cause ground motion and tsunami, it is appropriate to evaluate the ground motion and the tsunami by single fault model. However, several source models are used independently in the ground motion simulation or the tsunami simulation, because of difficulty in evaluating both phenomena simultaneously. Many source models for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake are proposed from the inversion analyses of seismic observations or from those of tsunami observations. Most of these models show the similar features, which large amount of slip is located at the shallower part of fault area near the Japan Trench. This indicates that the ground motion and the tsunami can be evaluated by the single source model. Therefore, we examine the possibility of the tsunami prediction, using the fault model estimated from seismic observation records. In this study, we try to carry out the tsunami simulation using the displacement field of oceanic crustal movements, which is calculated from the ground motion simulation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We use two fault models by Yoshida et al. (2011), which are based on both the teleseismic body wave and on the strong ground motion records. Although there is the common feature in those fault models, the amount of slip near the Japan trench is lager in the fault model from the strong ground motion records than in that from the teleseismic body wave. First, the large-scale ground motion simulations applying those fault models used by the voxel type finite element method are performed for the whole eastern Japan. The synthetic waveforms computed from the simulations are generally consistent with the observation records of K-NET (Kinoshita (1998)) and KiK-net stations (Aoi et al. (2000)), deployed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). Next, the tsunami simulations are performed by the finite

  16. Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2009-01-01

    In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh landslide-induced tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

  17. Village Level Tsunami Threat Maps for Tamil Nadu, SE Coast of India: Numerical Modeling Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    MP, J.; Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; V, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) devastated several countries of North Indian Ocean. India is one of the worst affected countries after Indonesia and Sri Lanka. In India, Tamil Nadu suffered maximum with fatalities exceeding 8,000 people. Historical records show that tsunami has invaded the shores of Tamil Nadu in the past and has made people realize that the tsunami threat looms over Tamil Nadu and it is necessary to evolve strategies for tsunami threat management. The IOT has brought to light that tsunami inundation and runup varied within short distances and for the disaster management for tsunami, large scale maps showing areas that are likely to be affected by future tsunami are identified. Therefore threat assessment for six villages including Mamallapuram (also called Mahabalipuram) which is famous for its rock-cut temples, from the northern part of Tamil Nadu state of India has been carried out and threat maps categorizing the coast into areas of different degree of threat are prepared. The threat was assessed by numerical modeling using TUNAMI N2 code considering different tsunamigenic sources along the Andaman - Sumatra trench. While GEBCO and C-Map data was used for bathymetry and for land elevation data was generated by RTK - GPS survey for a distance of 1 km from shore and SRTM for the inland areas. The model results show that in addition to the Sumatra source which generated the IOT in 2004, earthquakes originating in Car Nicobar and North Andaman can inflict more damage. The North Andaman source can generate a massive tsunami and an earthquake of magnitude more than Mw 9 can not only affect Tamil Nadu but also entire south east coast of India. The runup water level is used to demarcate the tsunami threat zones in the villages using GIS.

  18. Development of Physics and Control of Multiple Forcing Mechanisms for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahng, B.; Whitmore, P.; Macpherson, K. A.; Knight, W. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes or other mechanisms in either the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the use of the model has been mainly for tsunami pre-computation due to earthquakes. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. The model has also been used for tsunami hindcasting due to submarine landslides and due to atmospheric pressure jumps, but in a very case-specific and somewhat limited manner. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves approach coastal waters. The shallow-water wave physics is readily applicable to all of the above tsunamis as well as to tides. Recently, the model has been expanded to include multiple forcing mechanisms in a systematic fashion, and to enhance the model physics for non-earthquake events.ATFM is now able to handle multiple source mechanisms, either individually or jointly, which include earthquake, submarine landslide, meteo-tsunami and tidal forcing. As for earthquakes, the source can be a single unit source or multiple, interacting source blocks. Horizontal slip contribution can be added to the sea-floor displacement. The model now includes submarine landslide physics, modeling the source either as a rigid slump, or as a viscous fluid. Additional shallow-water physics have been implemented for the viscous submarine landslides. With rigid slumping, any trajectory can be followed. As for meteo-tsunami, the forcing mechanism is capable of following any trajectory shape. Wind stress physics has also been implemented for the meteo-tsunami case, if required. As an example of multiple

  19. Concerns over modeling and warning capabilities in wake of Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2011-04-01

    Improved earthquake models, better tsunami modeling and warning capabilities, and a review of nuclear power plant safety are all greatly needed following the 11 March Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, according to scientists at the European Geosciences Union's (EGU) General Assembly, held 3-8 April in Vienna, Austria. EGU quickly organized a morning session of oral presentations and an afternoon panel discussion less than 1 month after the earthquake and the tsunami and the resulting crisis at Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant, which has now been identified as having reached the same level of severity as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Many of the scientists at the EGU sessions expressed concern about the inability to have anticipated the size of the earthquake and the resulting tsunami, which appears likely to have caused most of the fatalities and damage, including damage to the nuclear plant.

  20. Rapid Determination of Appropriate Source Models for Tsunami Early Warning using a Depth Dependent Rigidity Curve: Method and Numerical Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Y.; Miranda, G. J. A.; Gusman, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, tsunami early warning technique has been improved using tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure gauges such as NOAA DART system or DONET and S-NET systems in Japan. However, for tsunami early warning of near field tsunamis, it is essential to determine appropriate source models using seismological analysis before large tsunamis hit the coast, especially for tsunami earthquakes which generated significantly large tsunamis. In this paper, we develop a technique to determine appropriate source models from which appropriate tsunami inundation along the coast can be numerically computed The technique is tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off Central America. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, then the fault length and width were determined from scaling relationships. At first, the slip amount was calculated from the seismic moment with a constant rigidity of 3.5 x 10**10N/m2. The tsunami numerical simulation was carried out and compared with the observed tsunami. For the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake, the computed tsunami was much smaller than the observed one. For the 2004 El Astillero earthquake, the computed tsunami was overestimated. In order to solve this problem, we constructed a depth dependent rigidity curve, similar to suggested by Bilek and Lay (1999). The curve with a central depth estimated by the W-phase inversion was used to calculate the slip amount of the fault model. Using those new slip amounts, tsunami numerical simulation was carried out again. Then, the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas for the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake were well explained by the computed one. The other tsunamis from the other three earthquakes were also reasonably well explained

  1. Confirmation and calibration of computer modeling of tsunamis produced by Augustine volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beget, James E.; Kowalik, Zygmunt

    2006-01-01

    Numerical modeling has been used to calculate the characteristics of a tsunami generated by a landslide into Cook Inlet from Augustine Volcano. The modeling predicts travel times of ca. 50-75 minutes to the nearest populated areas, and indicates that significant wave amplification occurs near Mt. Iliamna on the western side of Cook Inlet, and near the Nanwelak and the Homer-Anchor Point areas on the east side of Cook Inlet. Augustine volcano last produced a tsunami during an eruption in 1883, and field evidence of the extent and height of the 1883 tsunamis can be used to test and constrain the results of the computer modeling. Tsunami deposits on Augustine Island indicate waves near the landslide source were more than 19 m high, while 1883 tsunami deposits in distal sites record waves 6-8 m high. Paleotsunami deposits were found at sites along the coast near Mt. Iliamna, Nanwelak, and Homer, consistent with numerical modeling indicating significant tsunami wave amplification occurs in these areas. 

  2. Evaluation of Seismic Rupture Models for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Using Tsunami Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Da Chiou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Developing a realistic, three-dimensional rupture model of the large offshore earthquake is difficult to accomplish directly through band-limited ground-motion observations. A potential indirect method is using a tsunami simulation to verify the rupture model in reverse because the initial conditions of the associated tsunamis are caused by a coseismic seafloor displacement correlating to the rupture pattern along the main faulting. In this study, five well-developed rupture models for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake were adopted to evaluate differences in simulated tsunamis and various rupture asperities. The leading wave of the simulated tsunamis triggered by the seafloor displacement in Yamazaki et al. (2011 model resulted in the smallest root-mean-squared difference (~0.082 m on average from the records of the eight DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis stations. This indicates that the main seismic rupture during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake should occur in a large shallow slip in a narrow range adjacent to the Japan trench. This study also quantified the influences of ocean stratification and tides which are normally overlooked in tsunami simulations. The discrepancy between the simulations with and without stratification was less than 5% of the first peak wave height at the eight DART stations. The simulations, run with and without the presence of tides, resulted in a ~1% discrepancy in the height of the leading wave. Because simulations accounting for tides and stratification are time-consuming and their influences are negligible, particularly in the first tsunami wave, the two factors can be ignored in a tsunami prediction for practical purposes.

  3. Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

    2018-03-01

    The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

  4. Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

    2018-04-01

    The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

  5. Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

    2014-05-01

    Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as

  6. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  7. Numerical Modelling of Tsunami Generated by Deformable Submarine Slides: Parameterisation of Slide Dynamics for Coupling to Tsunami Propagation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R. C.; Collins, G. S.; Hill, J.; Piggott, M. D.; Mouradian, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical modelling informs risk assessment of tsunami generated by submarine slides; however, for large-scale slides modelling can be complex and computationally challenging. Many previous numerical studies have approximated slides as rigid blocks that moved according to prescribed motion. However, wave characteristics are strongly dependent on the motion of the slide and previous work has recommended that more accurate representation of slide dynamics is needed. We have used the finite-element, adaptive-mesh CFD model Fluidity, to perform multi-material simulations of deformable submarine slide-generated waves at real world scales for a 2D scenario in the Gulf of Mexico. Our high-resolution approach represents slide dynamics with good accuracy, compared to other numerical simulations of this scenario, but precludes tracking of wave propagation over large distances. To enable efficient modelling of further propagation of the waves, we investigate an approach to extract information about the slide evolution from our multi-material simulations in order to drive a single-layer wave propagation model, also using Fluidity, which is much less computationally expensive. The extracted submarine slide geometry and position as a function of time are parameterised using simple polynomial functions. The polynomial functions are used to inform a prescribed velocity boundary condition in a single-layer simulation, mimicking the effect the submarine slide motion has on the water column. The approach is verified by successful comparison of wave generation in the single-layer model with that recorded in the multi-material, multi-layer simulations. We then extend this approach to 3D for further validation of this methodology (using the Gulf of Mexico scenario proposed by Horrillo et al., 2013) and to consider the effect of lateral spreading. This methodology is then used to simulate a series of hypothetical submarine slide events in the Arctic Ocean (based on evidence of historic

  8. High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2014-05-01

    Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

  9. Ionospheric detection of tsunami earthquakes: observation, modeling and ideas for future early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Occhipinti, G.; Manta, F.; Rolland, L.; Watada, S.; Makela, J. J.; Hill, E.; Astafieva, E.; Lognonne, P. H.

    2017-12-01

    Detection of ionospheric anomalies following the Sumatra and Tohoku earthquakes (e.g., Occhipinti 2015) demonstrated that ionosphere is sensitive to earthquake and tsunami propagation: ground and oceanic vertical displacement induces acoustic-gravity waves propagating within the neutral atmosphere and detectable in the ionosphere. Observations supported by modelling proved that ionospheric anomalies related to tsunamis are deterministic and reproducible by numerical modeling via the ocean/neutral-atmosphere/ionosphere coupling mechanism (Occhipinti et al., 2008). To prove that the tsunami signature in the ionosphere is routinely detected we show here perturbations of total electron content (TEC) measured by GPS and following tsunamigenic earthquakes from 2004 to 2011 (Rolland et al. 2010, Occhipinti et al., 2013), nominally, Sumatra (26 December, 2004 and 12 September, 2007), Chile (14 November, 2007), Samoa (29 September, 2009) and the recent Tohoku-Oki (11 Mars, 2011). Based on the observations close to the epicenter, mainly performed by GPS networks located in Sumatra, Chile and Japan, we highlight the TEC perturbation observed within the first 8 min after the seismic rupture. This perturbation contains information about the ground displacement, as well as the consequent sea surface displacement resulting in the tsunami. In addition to GNSS-TEC observations close to the epicenter, new exciting measurements in the far-field were performed by airglow measurement in Hawaii show the propagation of the internal gravity waves induced by the Tohoku tsunami (Occhipinti et al., 2011). This revolutionary imaging technique is today supported by two new observations of moderate tsunamis: Queen Charlotte (M: 7.7, 27 October, 2013) and Chile (M: 8.2, 16 September 2015). We finally detail here our recent work (Manta et al., 2017) on the case of tsunami alert failure following the Mw7.8 Mentawai event (25 October, 2010), and its twin tsunami alert response following the Mw7

  10. Analytical Model of Planar Double Split Ring Resonator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhurbenko, Vitaliy; Jensen, Thomas; Krozer, Viktor

    2007-01-01

    This paper focuses on accurate modelling of microstrip double split ring resonators. The impedance matrix representation for coupled lines is applied for the first time to model the SRR, resulting in excellent model accuracy over a wide frequency range. Phase compensation is implemented to take i...

  11. Development of Tsunami Numerical Model Considering the Disaster Debris such as Cars, Ships and Collapsed Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozono, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

    2016-12-01

    A lot of debris by tsunami, such as cars, ships and collapsed buildings were generated in the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. It is useful for rescue and recovery after tsunami disaster to predict the amount and final position of disaster debris. The transport form of disaster debris varies as drifting, rolling and sliding. These transport forms need to be considered comprehensively in tsunami simulation. In this study, we focused on the following three points. Firstly, the numerical model considering various transport forms of disaster debris was developed. The proposed numerical model was compared with the hydraulic experiment by Okubo et al. (2004) in order to verify transport on the bottom surface such as rolling and sliding. Secondly, a numerical experiment considering transporting on the bottom surface and drifting was studied. Finally, the numerical model was applied for Kesennuma city where serious damage occurred by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. In this model, the influence of disaster debris was considered as tsunami flow energy loss. The hydraulic experiments conducted in a water tank which was 10 m long by 30 cm wide. The gate confined water in a storage tank, and acted as a wave generator. A slope was set at downstream section. The initial position of a block (width: 3.2 cm, density: 1.55 g/cm3) assuming the disaster debris was placed in front of the slope. The proposed numerical model simulated well the maximum transport distance and the final stop position of the block. In the second numerical experiment, the conditions were the same as the hydraulic experiment, except for the density of the block. The density was set to various values (from 0.30 to 4.20 g/cm3). This model was able to estimate various transport forms including drifting and sliding. In the numerical simulation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, the condition of buildings was modeled as follows: (i)the resistance on the bottom using Manning roughness coefficient (conventional method), and (ii)structure of

  12. Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sarri

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an earthquake. Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the outer product emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good performance of the emulator is validated using the leave-one-out method.

  13. Modelling of uranium/plutonium splitting in purex process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boullis, B.; Baron, P.

    1987-06-01

    A mathematical model simulating the highly complex uranium/plutonium splitting operation in PUREX process has been achieved by the french ''Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique''. The development of such a model, which includes transfer and redox reactions kinetics for all the species involved, required an important experimental work in the field of basis chemical data acquisition. The model has been successfully validated by comparison of its results with those of specific trials achieved (at laboratory scale), and with the available results of the french reprocessing units operation. It has then been used for the design of french new plants splitting operations

  14. A Numerical Modelling Study on the Potential Role of Tsunamis in the Biblical Exodus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M. Abril

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the narrative of the Biblical Exodus has been subject of heated debate for decades. Recent archaeological studies seem to provide new insight of the exodus path, and although with a still controversial chronology, the effects of the Minoan Santorini eruption have been proposed as a likely explanation of the biblical plagues. Particularly, it has been suggested that flooding by the associated tsunamis could explain the first plague and the sea parting. Recent modelling studies have shown that Santorini’s tsunami effects were negligible in the eastern Nile Delta, but the released tectonic stress could have triggered local tsunamigenic sources in sequence. This paper is aimed to a quantitative assessment of the potential role of tsunamis in the biblical parting of the sea. Several “best case” scenarios are tested through the application of a numerical model for tsunami propagation that has been previously validated. The former paleogeographic conditions of the eastern Nile Delta have been implemented based upon recent geological studies; and several feasible local sources for tsunamis are proposed. Tsunamis triggered by submarine landslides of 10–30 km3 could have severely impacted the northern Sinai and southern Levantine coasts but with weak effects in the eastern Nile Delta coastline. The lack of noticeable flooding in this area under the most favorable conditions for tsunamis, along with the time sequence of water elevations, make difficult to accept them as a plausible and literally explanation of the first plague and of the drowning of the Egyptian army in the surroundings of the former Shi-Hor Lagoon.

  15. Tsunami Modeling and Prediction Using a Data Assimilation Technique with Kalman Filters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnier, G.; Dunham, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake-induced tsunamis cause dramatic damages along densely populated coastlines. It is difficult to predict and anticipate tsunami waves in advance, but if the earthquake occurs far enough from the coast, there may be enough time to evacuate the zones at risk. Therefore, any real-time information on the tsunami wavefield (as it propagates towards the coast) is extremely valuable for early warning systems. After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, a dense tsunami-monitoring network (S-net) based on cabled ocean-bottom pressure sensors has been deployed along the Pacific coast in Northeastern Japan. Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) introduced a data assimilation technique to reconstruct the tsunami wavefield in real time by combining numerical solution of the shallow water wave equations with additional terms penalizing the numerical solution for not matching observations. The penalty or gain matrix is determined though optimal interpolation and is independent of time. Here we explore a related data assimilation approach using the Kalman filter method to evolve the gain matrix. While more computationally expensive, the Kalman filter approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions. We test our method on a 1D tsunami model derived from the Kozdon and Dunham (EPSL, 2014) dynamic rupture simulations of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. For appropriate choices of model and data covariance matrices, the method reconstructs the tsunami wavefield prior to wave arrival at the coast. We plan to compare the Kalman filter method to the optimal interpolation method developed by Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) and then to implement the method for 2D.

  16. Observations and Modeling of the 27 February 2010 Tsunami in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synolakis, C. E.; Fritz, H. M.; Petroff, C. M.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Winckler, P.; Kalligeris, N.; Weiss, R.; Meneses, G.; Valderas-Bermejo, C.; Ebeling, C. W.; Papadopoulos, A.; Contreras, M.; Almar, R.; Dominguez, J. C.; Barrientos, S. E.

    2010-12-01

    from the 2007 Solomon Islands event. Preliminary modeling results, field observations, video recordings and satellite imagery are presented. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about tsunami hazards as community-based education and awareness are essential to save lives in locales at risk.

  17. Modelling and Simulation of the Diode Split Transformer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Leo

    a significant influence on the picture quality. The most critical component is undoubtedly the diode split transformer (DST). Therefore, if developing a simulation model of the DST is possible, a significant step has been taken in the attempt to model the entire horizontal deflection circuit and to obtain...

  18. Tsunami-induced boulder transport - combining physical experiments and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oetjen, Jan; Engel, Max; May, Simon Matthias; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Brueckner, Helmut; Prasad Pudasaini, Shiva

    2016-04-01

    Coasts are crucial areas for living, economy, recreation, transportation, and various sectors of industry. Many of them are exposed to high-energy wave events. With regard to the ongoing population growth in low-elevation coastal areas, the urgent need for developing suitable management measures, especially for hazards like tsunamis, becomes obvious. These measures require supporting tools which allow an exact estimation of impact parameters like inundation height, inundation area, and wave energy. Focussing on tsunamis, geological archives can provide essential information on frequency and magnitude on a longer time scale in order to support coastal hazard management. While fine-grained deposits may quickly be altered after deposition, multi-ton coarse clasts (boulders) may represent an information source on past tsunami events with a much higher preservation potential. Applying numerical hydrodynamic coupled boulder transport models (BTM) is a commonly used approach to analyse characteristics (e.g. wave height, flow velocity) of the corresponding tsunami. Correct computations of tsunamis and the induced boulder transport can provide essential event-specific information, including wave heights, runup and direction. Although several valuable numerical models for tsunami-induced boulder transport exist (e. g. Goto et al., 2007; Imamura et al., 2008), some important basic aspects of both tsunami hydrodynamics and corresponding boulder transport have not yet been entirely understood. Therefore, our project aims at these questions in four crucial aspects of boulder transport by a tsunami: (i) influence of sediment load, (ii) influence of complex boulder shapes other than idealized rectangular shapes, (iii) momentum transfers between multiple boulders, and (iv) influence of non-uniform bathymetries and topographies both on tsunami and boulder. The investigation of these aspects in physical experiments and the correct implementation of an advanced model is an urgent need

  19. A shallow water model for the propagation of tsunami via Lattice Boltzmann method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zergani, Sara; Aziz, Z. A.; Viswanathan, K. K.

    2015-01-01

    An efficient implementation of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for the numerical simulation of the propagation of long ocean waves (e.g. tsunami), based on the nonlinear shallow water (NSW) wave equation is presented. The LBM is an alternative numerical procedure for the description of incompressible hydrodynamics and has the potential to serve as an efficient solver for incompressible flows in complex geometries. This work proposes the NSW equations for the irrotational surface waves in the case of complex bottom elevation. In recent time, equation involving shallow water is the current norm in modelling tsunami operations which include the propagation zone estimation. Several test-cases are presented to verify our model. Some implications to tsunami wave modelling are also discussed. Numerical results are found to be in excellent agreement with theory.

  20. A shallow water model for the propagation of tsunami via Lattice Boltzmann method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zergani, Sara; Aziz, Z A; Viswanathan, K K

    2015-01-01

    An efficient implementation of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for the numerical simulation of the propagation of long ocean waves (e.g. tsunami), based on the nonlinear shallow water (NSW) wave equation is presented. The LBM is an alternative numerical procedure for the description of incompressible hydrodynamics and has the potential to serve as an efficient solver for incompressible flows in complex geometries. This work proposes the NSW equations for the irrotational surface waves in the case of complex bottom elevation. In recent time, equation involving shallow water is the current norm in modelling tsunami operations which include the propagation zone estimation. Several test-cases are presented to verify our model. Some implications to tsunami wave modelling are also discussed. Numerical results are found to be in excellent agreement with theory

  1. Modelling tsunami inundation for risk analysis at the Andaman Sea Coast of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, G.; Kortenhaus, A.

    2009-04-01

    The mega-tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004 strongly impacted the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand and devastated coastal ecosystems as well as towns, settlements and tourism resorts. In addition to the tragic loss of many lives, the destruction or damage of life-supporting infrastructure, such as buildings, roads, water & power supply etc. caused high economic losses in the region. To mitigate future tsunami impacts there is a need to assess the tsunami hazard and vulnerability in flood prone areas at the Andaman Sea coast in order to determine the spatial distribution of risk and to develop risk management strategies. In the bilateral German-Thai project TRAIT research is performed on integrated risk assessment for the Provinces Phang Nga and Phuket in southern Thailand, including a hazard analysis, i.e. modelling tsunami propagation to the coast, tsunami wave breaking and inundation characteristics, as well as vulnerability analysis of the socio-economic and the ecological system in order to determine the scenario-based, specific risk for the region. In this presentation results of the hazard analysis and the inundation simulation are presented and discussed. Numerical modelling of tsunami propagation and inundation simulation is an inevitable tool for risk analysis, risk management and evacuation planning. While numerous investigations have been made to model tsunami wave generation and propagation in the Indian Ocean, there is still a lack in determining detailed inundation patterns, i.e. water depth and flow dynamics. However, for risk management and evacuation planning this knowledge is essential. As the accuracy of the inundation simulation is strongly depending on the available bathymetric and the topographic data, a multi-scale approach is chosen in this work. The ETOPO Global Relief Model as a bathymetric basis and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM90) have been widely applied in tsunami modelling approaches as these data are free and almost world

  2. The tsunami phenomenon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röbke, B. R.; Vött, A.

    2017-12-01

    With human activity increasingly concentrating on coasts, tsunamis (from Japanese tsu = harbour, nami = wave) are a major natural hazard to today's society. Stimulated by disastrous tsunami impacts in recent years, for instance in south-east Asia (2004) or in Japan (2011), tsunami science has significantly flourished, which has brought great advances in hazard assessment and mitigation plans. Based on tsunami research of the last decades, this paper provides a thorough treatise on the tsunami phenomenon from a geoscientific point of view. Starting with the wave features, tsunamis are introduced as long shallow water waves or wave trains crossing entire oceans without major energy loss. At the coast, tsunamis typically show wave shoaling, funnelling and resonance effects as well as a significant run-up and backflow. Tsunami waves are caused by a sudden displacement of the water column due to a number of various trigger mechanisms. Such are earthquakes as the main trigger, submarine and subaerial mass wastings, volcanic activity, atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis) and cosmic impacts, as is demonstrated by giving corresponding examples from the past. Tsunamis are known to have a significant sedimentary and geomorphological off- and onshore response. So-called tsunamites form allochthonous high-energy deposits that are left at the coast during tsunami landfall. Tsunami deposits show typical sedimentary features, as basal erosional unconformities, fining-upward and -landward, a high content of marine fossils, rip-up clasts from underlying units and mud caps, all reflecting the hydrodynamic processes during inundation. The on- and offshore behaviour of tsunamis and related sedimentary processes can be simulated using hydro- and morphodynamic numerical models. The paper provides an overview of the basic tsunami modelling techniques, including discretisation, guidelines for appropriate temporal and spatial resolution as well as the nesting method. Furthermore, the

  3. Tsunami on Sanriku Coast in 1586: Orphan or Ghost Tsunami ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Peruvian earthquake on July 9, 1586 was the oldest earthquake that damaged Lima. The tsunami height was assigned as 24 m in Callao and 1-2 m in Miyagi prefecture in Japan by Soloviev and Go (1975). Dorbath et al. (1990) studied historical earthquakes in Peru and estimated that the 1586 earthquake was similar to the 1974 event (Mw 8.1) with source length of 175 km. They referred two different tsunami heights, 3. 7m and 24 m, in Callao, and judged that the latter was exaggerated. Okal et al. (2006) could not make a source model to explain both tsunami heights in Callao and Japan. More recently, Butler et al. (2017) estimated the age of coral boulders in Hawaii as AD 1572 +/- 21, speculated the tsunami source in Aleutians, and attributed it to the source of the 1586 tsunami in Japan. Historical tsunamis, both near-field and far-field, have been documented along the Sanriku coast since 1586 (e.g., Watanabe, 1998). However, there is no written document for the 1586 tsunami (Tsuji et al., 2013). Ninomiya (1960) compiled the historical tsunami records on the Sanriku coast soon after the 1960 Chilean tsunami, and correlated the legend of tsunami in Tokura with the 1586 Peruvian earthquake, although he noted that the dates were different. About the legend, he referred to Kunitomi(1933) who compiled historical tsunami data after the 1933 Showa Sanriku tsunami. Kunitomi referred to "Tsunami history of Miyagi prefecture" published after the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami. "Tsunami history" described the earthquake and tsunami damage of Tensho earthquake on January 18 (Gregorian),1586 in central Japan, and correlated the tsunami legend in Tokura on June 30, 1586 (G). Following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, tsunami legend in Tokura was studied again (Ebina, 2015). A local person published a story he heard from his grandfather that many small valleys were named following the 1611 tsunami, which inundated further inland than the 2011 tsunami. Ebina (2015), based on historical documents

  4. On the tsunami model of the origin of multi-ring basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue Zengyuan; Zhang Bin; Chen Daohan.

    1990-03-01

    By use of the theory of shallow water waves generated by an impulsive pressure, the tsunami theory of the origin of multi-ring basins is rediscussed and an approximate formula used for calculating the ring location is derived. From the computed ring spacing of three multi-ring basins on the moon (Orientale, Moscoviense and Serenitatis South), it is shown that the tsunami model can only be applied to the area within the IV ring which signifies the rim of the excavated basin and the end of the fluidized region. In the frame of the tsunami model, no explanation for ring spacing is equally plausible for exterior rings as well as interior ones. (author). 14 refs, 1 tab

  5. Issues and Advances in Understanding Landslide-Generated Tsunamis: Toward a Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E. L.; Locat, J.; Lee, H. J.; Lynett, P. J.; Parsons, T.; Kayen, R. E.; Hart, P. E.

    2008-12-01

    The physics of tsunamis generated from submarine landslides is highly complex, involving a cross- disciplinary exchange in geophysics. In the 10 years following the devastating Papua New Guinea tsunami, there have been significant advances in understanding landslide-generated tsunamis. However, persistent issues still remain related to submarine landslide dynamics that may be addressed with collection of new marine geologic and geophysical observations. We review critical elements of landslide tsunamis in the hope of developing a unified model that encompasses all stages of the process from triggering to tsunami runup. Because the majority of non-volcanogenic landslides that generate tsunamis are triggered seismically, advances in understanding inertial displacements and changes in strength and rheologic properties in response to strong-ground motion need to be included in a unified model. For example, interaction between compliant marine sediments and multi-direction ground motion results in greater permanent plastic displacements than predicted by traditional rigid-block analysis. When considering the coupling of the overlying water layer in the generation of tsunamis, the post-failure dynamics of landslides is important since the overall rate of seafloor deformation for landslides is less than or comparable to the phase speed of tsunami waves. As such, the rheologic and mechanical behavior of the slide material needs to be well understood. For clayey and silty debris flows, a non-linear (Herschel-Bulkley) and bilinear rheology have recently been developed to explain observed runout distances and deposit thicknesses. An additional complexity to this rheology is the inclusion of hydrate-laden sediment that commonly occurs along continental slopes. Although it has been proposed in the past that gas hydrate dissociation may provide potential failure planes for slide movement, it is unclear how zones of rigid hydrate-bearing sediment surrounded by a more viscoplastic

  6. Field Investigations and a Tsunami Modeling for the 1766 Marmara Sea Earthquake, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aykurt Vardar, H.; Altinok, Y.; Alpar, B.; Unlu, S.; Yalciner, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    Turkey is located on one of the world's most hazardous earthquake zones. The northern branch of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, where the population is most concentrated, is the most active fault branch at least since late Pliocene. The Sea of Marmara region has been affected by many large tsunamigenic earthquakes; the most destructive ones are 549, 553, 557, 740, 989, 1332, 1343, 1509, 1766, 1894, 1912 and 1999 events. In order to understand and determine the tsunami potential and their possible effects along the coasts of this inland sea, detailed documentary, geophysical and numerical modelling studies are needed on the past earthquakes and their associated tsunamis whose effects are presently unknown.On the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara region, the Kucukcekmece Lagoon has a high potential to trap and preserve tsunami deposits. Within the scope of this study, lithological content, composition and sources of organic matters in the lagoon's bottom sediments were studied along a 4.63 m-long piston core recovered from the SE margin of the lagoon. The sedimentary composition and possible sources of the organic matters along the core were analysed and their results were correlated with the historical events on the basis of dating results. Finally, a tsunami scenario was tested for May 22nd 1766 Marmara Sea Earthquake by using a widely used tsunami simulation model called NAMIDANCE. The results show that the candidate tsunami deposits at the depths of 180-200 cm below the lagoons bottom were related with the 1766 (May) earthquake. This work was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Istanbul University (Project 6384) and by the EU project TRANSFER for coring.

  7. Geological evidence and sediment transport modelling for the 1946 and 1960 tsunamis in Shinmachi, Hilo, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagué, Catherine; Sugawara, Daisuke; Goto, Kazuhisa; Goff, James; Dudley, Walter; Gadd, Patricia

    2018-02-01

    The Japanese community of Shinmachi, established on low-lying land between downtown Hilo and Waiakea, Hawaii, was obliterated by the 1946 Aleutian tsunami but was rebuilt, only to be destroyed again by the 1960 Chilean tsunami. The aim of this study was to find out if any geological evidence of these well documented events had been preserved in the sedimentary record in Wailoa River State Park, which replaced Shinmachi after the 1960 tsunami. This was achieved by collecting cores in the park and performing sedimentological, chronological and geochemical analyses, the latter also processed by principal component analysis. Sediment transport modelling was carried out for both tsunamis, to infer the source of the sediment and areas of deposition on land. The field survey revealed two distinct units within peat and soil, a thin lower unit composed of weathered basalt fragments within mud (Unit 1) and an upper unit dominated by fine volcanic sand within fine silt exhibiting subtle upward fining and coarsening (Unit 2, consisting of Unit 2A and Unit 2B), although these two anomalous units only occur on the western shore of Waiakea Mill Pond. Analysis with an ITRAX core scanner shows that Unit 1 is characterised by high Mn, Fe, Rb, La and Ce counts, combined with elevated magnetic susceptibility. Based on its chemical and sedimentological characteristics, Unit 1 is attributed to a flood event in Wailoa River that occurred around 1520-1660 CE, most probably as a result of a tropical storm. The sharp lower contact of Unit 2 coincides with the appearance of arsenic, contemporaneous with an increase in Ca, Sr, Si, Ti, K, Zr, Mn, Fe, La and Ce. In this study, As is used as a chronological and source material marker, as it is known to have been released into Wailoa River Estuary and Waiakea Mill Pond by the Canec factory between 1932 and 1963. Thus, not only the chemical and sedimentological evidence but also sediment transport modelling, corroborating the historical record

  8. Quark potential model of baryon spin-orbit mass splittings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Fan; Wong Chunwa

    1987-01-01

    We show that it is possible to make the P-wave spin-orbit mass splittings in Λ baryons consistent with those of nonstrange baryons in a naive quark model, but only by introducing additional terms in the quark-quark effective interaction. These terms might be related to contributions due to pomeron exchange and sea excitations. The implications of our model in meson spectroscopy and nuclear forces are discussed. (orig.)

  9. Mathematical Modelling of Tsunami Propagation 1EZE, C. L.; 2UKO ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MICHAEL

    propagation of waves in the open ocean; (c) propagation of waves in shallow water and on the shore. The development of numerical models to describe tsunami wave generation, propagation and interaction with complicated topography such as bays or harbours and the resulting flooding has advanced to the stage where ...

  10. Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

    2011-12-01

    Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations

  11. A rapid estimation of tsunami run-up based on finite fault models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, J.; Fuentes, M. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Riquelme, S.

    2014-12-01

    Many efforts have been made to estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify our knowledge of the earthquake source. Instead, we can use finite fault models of earthquakes to give a more accurate prediction of the tsunami run-up. Here we show how to accurately predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution found by Fuentes et al, 2013 that was especially calculated for zones with a very well defined strike, i.e, Chile, Japan, Alaska, etc. The main idea of this work is to produce a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for quickness. Our solutions for three large earthquakes are promising. Here we compute models of the run-up for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Our maximum rup-up predictions are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 15 to 20 m for Maule, 40 m for Tohoku, and 2,1 m for the Iquique earthquake. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first five minutes after the occurrence of any such event. Such calculations will thus provide more accurate run-up information than is otherwise available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases.

  12. The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

    2014-12-01

    We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August ( Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August ( Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.

  13. Tsunami-Induced Nearshore Hydrodynamic Modeling using a 3D VOF Method: A Gulf of Mexico Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kian, R.; Horrillo, J. J.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term morphology changes can be interrupted by extreme events such as hurricanes and tsunamis. In particular, the impact of tsunamis on coastal erosion and accretion patterns is presently not well understood. In order to understand the sediment movement during coastal tsunami impact a numerical sediment transport model is added to a 3D VOF model. This model allows for spatially varying bottom sediment characteristics and entails functions for entrainment, bedload, and suspended load transport. As a case study, a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastal study site is selected to investigate the effect of a landslide-tsunami on the coastal morphology. The GOM is recognized as a vast and productive body of water with great ecologic and economic value. The morphodynamic response of the nearshore environment to the tsunami hydrodynamic forcing is influenced by many factors including bathymetry, topography, tsunami wave and current magnitude, and the characteristics of the local bottom substrate. The 3D model addition can account for all these factors. Finally, necessary strategies for reduction of the potential tsunami impact and management of the morphological changes are discussed.

  14. Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarche, G.; Popinet, S.; Pelletier, B.; Mountjoy, J.; Goff, J.; Delaux, S.; Bind, J.

    2015-08-01

    We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

  15. Modelling shear wave splitting observations from Wellington, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marson-Pidgeon, Katrina; Savage, Martha K.

    2004-05-01

    Frequency-dependent anisotropy was previously observed at the permanent broad-band station SNZO, South Karori, Wellington, New Zealand. This has important implications for the interpretation of measurements in other subduction zones and hence for our understanding of mantle flow. This motivated us to make further splitting measurements using events recorded since the previous study and to develop a new modelling technique. Thus, in this study we have made 67 high-quality shear wave splitting measurements using events recorded at the SNZO station spanning a 10-yr period. This station is the only one operating in New Zealand for longer than 2 yr. Using a combination of teleseismic SKS and S phases and regional ScS phases provides good azimuthal coverage, allowing us to undertake detailed modelling. The splitting measurements indicate that in addition to the frequency dependence observed previously at this station, there are also variations with propagation and initial polarization directions. The fast polarization directions range between 2° and 103°, and the delay times range between 0.75 s and 3.05 s. These ranges are much larger than observed previously at SNZO or elsewhere in New Zealand. Because of the observed frequency dependence we measure the dominant frequency of the phase used to make the splitting measurement, and take this into account in the modelling. We fit the fast polarization directions fairly well with a two-layer anisotropic model with horizontal axes of symmetry. However, such a model does not fit the delay times or explain the frequency dependence. We have developed a new inversion method which allows for an inclined axis of symmetry in each of the two layers. However, applying this method to SNZO does not significantly improve the fit over a two-layer model with horizontal symmetry axes. We are therefore unable to explain the frequency dependence or large variation in delay time values with multiple horizontal layers of anisotropy, even

  16. Numerical Modelling of the 26th December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami for the Southeastern Coast of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioualalen, M.; Arreaga-Vargas, P.; Pophet, N.; Chlieh, M.; Ilayaraja, K.; Ordoñez, J.; Renteria, W.; Pazmiño, N.

    2010-10-01

    A numerical simulation of the 26th December, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami of the Tamil Nadu coastal zone is presented. The simulation approach is based on a fully nonlinear Boussinesq tsunami propagation model and included an accurate computational domain and a robust coseismic source. The simulation is first confronted to available tide gauge and runup observations. The agreement between observations and the predicted wave heights allowed a reasonable validation of the simulation. As a result, a full picture of the tsunami impact is provided over the entire coastal zone Tamil Nadu. The processes responsible for coastal vulnerability are discussed.

  17. Tsunami Scenarios Based on Interseismic Models Along the Nankai Trough, Japan, From Seafloor and Onshore Geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Shun-ichi; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego; Tadokoro, Keiichi

    2018-03-01

    The recent availability of Global Positioning System-Acoustic seafloor geodetic observations enables us to resolve the spatial distribution of the slip deficit rate near the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan. Considering a tectonic block model and the transient deformation due to the major earthquakes in this area, the slip deficit rate between the two relevant blocks can be estimated. In this study, we remove the time-dependent postseismic deformation of the 2004 southeastern off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes (MJMA 7.1, 7.4), which had led to the underestimation of the slip deficit rate in earlier studies. We model the postearthquake viscoelastic relaxation using the 3D finite element model with bi-viscous Burgers rheology, as well as the afterslip on the finite faults. The corrected Global Positioning System-Acoustic and land-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems data are aligned to the existing tectonic model and used to estimate the slip deficit rate on the plate boundary. We then calculate the coseismic displacements and tsunami wave propagation with the simple assumption that a hundred years of constant slip deficit accumulation was released instantaneously. To evaluate the influence of uncertainties in the plate interface geometry on a tsunami model for the Nankai trough, we investigated two different geometries and performed checkerboard inversion simulations. Although the two models indicate roughly similar results, the peak height of the tsunami wave and its arrival time at several points are significantly different in terms of the expected hazard.

  18. Tsunami deposits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidelines on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guideline of tsunami deposits survey and evaluation and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, (2) field survey on tsunami deposit, and (3) designing the analysis code of sediment transport due to tsunami. As to (1), we organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. As to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. In addition, as to (3), we design the experimental instrument for hydraulic experiment on sediment transport and sedimentation due to tsunamis. These results are reflected in the guideline on the tsunami deposits survey and evaluation. (author)

  19. Tsunami deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidelines on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guideline of tsunami deposits survey and evaluation and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, (2) field survey on tsunami deposit, and (3) designing the analysis code of sediment transport due to tsunami. As to (1), we organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. As to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. In addition, as to (3), we design the experimental instrument for hydraulic experiment on sediment transport and sedimentation due to tsunamis. These results are reflected in the guideline on the tsunami deposits survey and evaluation. (author)

  20. Splitting and non splitting are pollution models photochemical reactions in the urban areas of greater Tehran area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidarinasab, A.; Dabir, B.; Sahimi, M.; Badii, Kh.

    2003-01-01

    During the past years, one of the most important problems has been air pollution in urban areas. In this regards, ozone, as one of the major products of photochemical reactions, has great importance. The term 'photochemical' is applied to a number of secondary pollutants that appear as a result of sun-related reactions, ozone being the most important one. So far various models have been suggested to predict these pollutants. In this paper, we developed the model that has been introduced by Dabir, et al. [4]. In this model more than 48 chemical species and 114 chemical reactions are involved. The result of this development, showed good to excellent agreement across the region for compounds such as O 3 , NO, NO 2 , CO, and SO 2 with regard to VOC and NMHC. The results of the simulation were compared with previous work [4] and the effects of increasing the number of components and reactions were evaluated. The results of the operator splitting method were compared with non splitting solving method. The result showed that splitting method with one-tenth time step collapsed with non splitting method (Crank-Nicolson, under-relaxation iteration method without splitting of the equation terms). Then we developed one dimensional model to 3-D and were compared with experimental data

  1. Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

    2016-04-01

    The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether earthquake or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source models are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source model should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).

  2. Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

    2014-01-01

    Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

  3. Benchmarking Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide generated tsunami. HTHMP validation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, J.; Escalante, C.; Castro, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Landslide tsunami hazard may be dominant along significant parts of the coastline around the world, in particular in the USA, as compared to hazards from other tsunamigenic sources. This fact motivated NTHMP about the need of benchmarking models for landslide generated tsunamis, following the same methodology already used for standard tsunami models when the source is seismic. To perform the above-mentioned validation process, a set of candidate benchmarks were proposed. These benchmarks are based on a subset of available laboratory data sets for solid slide experiments and deformable slide experiments, and include both submarine and subaerial slides. A benchmark based on a historic field event (Valdez, AK, 1964) close the list of proposed benchmarks. A total of 7 benchmarks. The Multilayer-HySEA model including non-hydrostatic effects has been used to perform all the benchmarking problems dealing with laboratory experiments proposed in the workshop that was organized at Texas A&M University - Galveston, on January 9-11, 2017 by NTHMP. The aim of this presentation is to show some of the latest numerical results obtained with the Multilayer-HySEA (non-hydrostatic) model in the framework of this validation effort.Acknowledgements. This research has been partially supported by the Spanish Government Research project SIMURISK (MTM2015-70490-C02-01-R) and University of Malaga, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. The GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (University of Malaga).

  4. Stakeholder-driven geospatial modeling for assessing tsunami vertical-evacuation strategies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, N. J.; Schmidtlein, M.; Schelling, J.; Jones, J.; Ng, P.

    2012-12-01

    Recent tsunami disasters, such as the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events, demonstrate the significant life loss that can occur from tsunamis. Many coastal communities in the world are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards that may inundate low-lying areas only minutes after a tsunami begins. Geospatial integration of demographic data and hazard zones has identified potential impacts on populations in communities susceptible to near-field tsunami threats. Pedestrian-evacuation models build on these geospatial analyses to determine if individuals in tsunami-prone areas will have sufficient time to reach high ground before tsunami-wave arrival. Areas where successful evacuations are unlikely may warrant vertical-evacuation (VE) strategies, such as berms or structures designed to aid evacuation. The decision of whether and where VE strategies are warranted is complex. Such decisions require an interdisciplinary understanding of tsunami hazards, land cover conditions, demography, community vulnerability, pedestrian-evacuation models, land-use and emergency-management policy, and decision science. Engagement with the at-risk population and local emergency managers in VE planning discussions is critical because resulting strategies include permanent structures within a community and their local ownership helps ensure long-term success. We present a summary of an interdisciplinary approach to assess VE options in communities along the southwest Washington coast (U.S.A.) that are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Pedestrian-evacuation models based on an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms were merged with population data to forecast the distribution of at-risk individuals within several communities as a function of travel time to safe locations. A series of community-based workshops helped identify potential VE options in these communities, collectively known as "Project Safe Haven" at the

  5. Improvement and speed optimization of numerical tsunami modelling program using OpenMP technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernov, A.; Zaytsev, A.; Yalciner, A.; Kurkin, A.

    2009-04-01

    Currently, the basic problem of tsunami modeling is low speed of calculations which is unacceptable for services of the operative notification. Existing algorithms of numerical modeling of hydrodynamic processes of tsunami waves are developed without taking the opportunities of modern computer facilities. There is an opportunity to have considerable acceleration of process of calculations by using parallel algorithms. We discuss here new approach to parallelization tsunami modeling code using OpenMP Technology (for multiprocessing systems with the general memory). Nowadays, multiprocessing systems are easily accessible for everyone. The cost of the use of such systems becomes much lower comparing to the costs of clusters. This opportunity also benefits all programmers to apply multithreading algorithms on desktop computers of researchers. Other important advantage of the given approach is the mechanism of the general memory - there is no necessity to send data on slow networks (for example Ethernet). All memory is the common for all computing processes; it causes almost linear scalability of the program and processes. In the new version of NAMI DANCE using OpenMP technology and multi-threading algorithm provide 80% gain in speed in comparison with the one-thread version for dual-processor unit. The speed increased and 320% gain was attained for four core processor unit of PCs. Thus, it was possible to reduce considerably time of performance of calculations on the scientific workstations (desktops) without complete change of the program and user interfaces. The further modernization of algorithms of preparation of initial data and processing of results using OpenMP looks reasonable. The final version of NAMI DANCE with the increased computational speed can be used not only for research purposes but also in real time Tsunami Warning Systems.

  6. Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: kohhl@ucsiuniversity.edu.my [Office of Deputy Vice Chancellor for Research and Post Graduate Studies, UCSI University, Jalan Menara Gading, 56000 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: syteh@usm.my [School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang (Malaysia); Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che [Malaysian Meteorological Department, MOSTI, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    2014-10-24

    The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

  7. Observations and modeling of tsunami-induced currents in ports and harbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, Patrick J.; Borrero, Jose C.; Weiss, Robert; Son, Sangyoung; Greer, Dougal; Renteria, Willington

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis, or "harbor waves" in Japanese, are so-named due to common observations of enhanced wave heights, currents and damage in harbors and ports. However, dynamic currents induced by these waves, while regularly observed and known to cause significant damage, are poorly understood. Observations and modeling of the currents induced by the 2011 Tohoku and 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis allows us to show that the strongest flows in harbor basins are governed by horizontally sheared and rotational shallow features, such as jets and large eddies. When examining currents in harbors, this conclusion will generally require a simulation approach that both includes the relevant physical processes in the governing equations and uses a numerical scheme that does not artificially damp these features. Without proper representation of the physics associated with these phenomena, predictive models may provide drag force estimates that are an order of magnitude or more in error. The immediate implementation of this type of analysis into tsunami hazard studies can mean the difference between an unaffected port and one in which 300 m long container vessels are detached from their moorings and drift chaotically.

  8. The Solomon Islands Tsunami of 6 February 2013 in the Santa Cruz Islands: Field Survey and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Papantoniou, Antonios; Biukoto, Litea; Albert, Gilly; Wei, Yong

    2014-05-01

    observed on volcanic Tinakula Island and on Ndendo Island. Observations from the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami are compared against the 2007 and 2010 Solomon Islands tsunamis. The field observations in the Santa Cruz Islands present an important dataset to assess tsunami impact in the near-source region. The tsunami was also recorded at deep-ocean tsunameters and tide gauges throughout the Pacific. These observations allow us to further investigate the physics of tsunami generation caused by the seismic process (or other non-seismic mechanisms). We use numerical model MOST to analyze the large runup and complex impact distribution caused by the Santa Cruz tsunami. Source models obtained using seismic data / tsunami data are carried out to initialize the tsunami model. MOST uses two sets of numerical grids to investigate both the near- and far-field aspects of the tsunami. The basin-scale modeling results are computed using a spatial resolution of 4 arc min (approx. 7,200 m) and compared with measurements at deep-ocean tsunameters. The near-field modeling is carried out using a series of telescoped grids up to a grid resolution of tens of meters to compare with the tsunami runup and flooding extent obtained through the field survey in the Solomon Islands. The modeling results emphasize the contrast between the tsunami impact on the exposed coastline and the sheltered Lata Bay stressing the problematic interpretation of a tsunami in progress based solely on near-source tide-gauge measurements. The team also interviewed eyewitnesses and educated residents about the tsunami hazard in numerous ad hoc presentations and discussions. The combination of ancestral knowledge and recent Solomon Islands wide geohazards education programs triggered an immediate spontaneous self-evacuation containing the death toll in the small evacuation window of few minutes between the end of the ground shaking and the onslaught of the tsunami. Fortunately school children were shown a video on the 1 April

  9. Airburst-Generated Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Marsha; Goodman, Jonathan

    2018-04-01

    This paper examines the questions of whether smaller asteroids that burst in the air over water can generate tsunamis that could pose a threat to distant locations. Such airburst-generated tsunamis are qualitatively different than the more frequently studied earthquake-generated tsunamis, and differ as well from tsunamis generated by asteroids that strike the ocean. Numerical simulations are presented using the shallow water equations in several settings, demonstrating very little tsunami threat from this scenario. A model problem with an explicit solution that demonstrates and explains the same phenomena found in the computations is analyzed. We discuss the question of whether compressibility and dispersion are important effects that should be included, and show results from a more sophisticated model problem using the linearized Euler equations that begins to addresses this.

  10. Isospin Mass Splittings and the $\\ms$ Corrections in the Semibosonized SU(3)-NJL-Model

    OpenAIRE

    Blotz, Andree; Goeke, K.; Praszalowicz, M.

    1994-01-01

    The mass splittings of hyperons including the isospin splittings are calculated with $O(\\ms^2)$ and $O(\\ms \\dm)$ accuracy respectively within the semibosonized SU(3)-NJL model. The pattern of the isospin splittings is not spoiled by the terms of the order $O(\\ms \\dm)$, and both splittings between the different isospin multiplets and within the same multiplet are well reproduced for acceptable values of $\\ms$ and $\\dm$.

  11. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  12. Physical Modeling of Landslide Generated Tsunamis and the 50th Anniversary of the Vajont Dam Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, Brian C.; Mohammed, Fahad; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2013-04-01

    The Vajont river is an affluent of the Piave River located in the Dolomite Alps of the Veneto Region, about 100km north of Venice. A 265.5 m high double curved arch dam was built across a V-shaped gorge creating a reservoir with a maximum storage capacity of 0.169 km3. A maximum water depth of 250 m was reached by early September 1963 during the third filling attempt of the reservoir, but as creeping on the southern flank increased the third reservoir draw down was initiated. By October 9, 1963 the water depth was lowered to 240m as the southern flank of Vajont reservoir catastrophically collapsed on a length of more than 2km. Collapse occurred during reservoir drawdown in a final attempt to reduce flank creeping and the reservoir was only about two-thirds full. The partially submerged rockslide with a volume of 0.24 km3 penetrated into the reservoir at velocities up to 30 m/s. The wave runup in direct prolongation of slide axis reached the lowest houses of Casso 270m above reservoir level before impact corresponding to 245m above dam crest (Müller, 1964). The rockslide deposit came within 50m of the left abutment and towers up to 140m above the dam crest. The lateral spreading of the surge overtopped the dam crest by more than 100m. The thin arch dam withstood the overtopping and sustained no damage to the structural shell and the abutments. The flood wave dropped more than 500m down the Vajont gorge and into the Piave Valley causing utter destruction to the villages of Longarone, Pirago, Villanova, Rivalta and Fae. More than 2000 persons perished. The Vajont disaster highlights an extreme landslide tsunami event in the narrowly confined water body of a reservoir. Landslide tsunami hazards exist even in areas not exposed to tectonic tsunamis. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was

  13. Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

    2013-11-01

    El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences-finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results

  14. Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

    2017-01-01

    Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

  15. High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ribeiro

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment.

    Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal, which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami.

    In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

  16. Physical modelling of tsunamis generated by three-dimensional deformable granular landslides on planar and conical island slopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, Brian C; Fritz, Hermann M

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events recorded, yet critically important field data related to the landslide motion and tsunami evolution remain lacking. Landslide-generated tsunami source and propagation scenarios are physically modelled in a three-dimensional tsunami wave basin. A unique pneumatic landslide tsunami generator was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The landslides were generated on a planar hill slope and divergent convex conical hill slope to study lateral hill slope effects on the wave characteristics. The leading wave crest amplitude generated on a planar hill slope is larger on average than the leading wave crest generated on a convex conical hill slope, whereas the leading wave trough and second wave crest amplitudes are smaller. Between 1% and 24% of the landslide kinetic energy is transferred into the wave train. Cobble landslides transfer on average 43% more kinetic energy into the wave train than corresponding gravel landslides. Predictive equations for the offshore propagating wave amplitudes, periods, celerities and lengths generated by landslides on planar and divergent convex conical hill slopes are derived, which allow an initial rapid tsunami hazard assessment.

  17. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  18. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the southeastern Pacific: Coastal and offshore measurements and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, C. W.; Eble, M. C.; Rabinovich, A.; Titov, V. V.

    2016-12-01

    The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra generated a catastrophic tsunami that crossed the Indian Ocean and was widespread in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans being recorded by a great number of coastal tide gauges located in 15-25 thousand kilometers from the source area. The data from these instruments throughout the world oceans enabled estimates of various statistical parameters and energy decay of this event. However, only very few open-ocean records of this tsunami had been obtained. A unique high-resolution record of this tsunami from DART 32401 located offshore of northern Chile, combined with the South American mainland tide gauge measurements and the data from three island stations (San Felix, Juan Fernandez and Easter) enabled us to examine far-field characteristics of the event in the southeastern Pacific and to compare the results of global numerical simulations with observations. The maximum wave height measured at DART 32401 was only 1.8 cm but the signal was very clear and reliable. Despite their small heights, the waves demonstrated consistent spatial and temporal structure and good agreement with DART 46405/NeMO records in the NE Pacific. The travel time from the source area to DART 32401 was 25h 55min in good agreement with the computed travel time (25h 45min) and consistent with the times obtained from the nearby coastal tide gauges. This agreement was much better than it followed from the direct travel time estimation based classical kinematic theory that gave the travel time approximately 1.5 hrs shorter than observed. The later actual arrival of the 2004 tsunami waves corresponds to the most energetically economic path along the mid-ocean ridge wave-guides, which is distinctly reproduced by the numerical model. Also, the numerical model described well the frequency content, amplitudes and general structure of the observed waves at this DART and the three island stations. Maximum wave heights in this

  19. High Resolution Tsunami Modelling for the Evaluation of Potential Risk Areas in Setubal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, João.; Silva, Adélio; Leitão, Paulo

    2010-05-01

    Modeling has a relevant role in today's natural hazards mitigation planning as it can cover a wide range of natural phenomena. This is also the case for an event like a tsunami. In order to support the urban planning or prepare emergency response plans it is of major importance to be able to properly evaluate the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipments. The use of high resolution models can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas which complemented with other data such as the type of buildings, location of prioritary equipments, etc., may effectively contribute to better identify the most vulnerable zones, define rescue and escape routes and adequate the emergency plans to the constraints associated to these type of events. In the framework of FP6 SCHEMA project these concepts are being applied to different test sites and a detailed evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings and people to a tsunami event is being evaluated. One of the sites selected it is located in Portugal, in the Atlantic coast, and it refers to Setúbal area which is located about 40 km south of Lisbon. Within this site two specific locations are being evaluated: one is the city of Setúbal (in the Sado estuary right margin) and the other is the Tróia peninsula (in the Sado estuary left margin). Setúbal city is a medium size town with about 114,000 inhabitants while Tróia is a touristic resort located in a shallow area with a high seasonal occupation and has the river Sado as one of the main sources of income to the city. Setúbal was one of the Portuguese villages that was seriously damaged by the of 1755 earthquake event. The 1755 earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, took place on 1 November 1755, the catholic holiday of All Saints, around 09:30 AM. The earthquake was followed by a tsunami and fires which caused a huge destruction of Lisboa and Setúbal In the framework of the present study, a detailed evaluation of

  20. Assessment of the tsunami hazard on Moroccan coasts using numerical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amine Meriem

    2018-01-01

    This work can be considered as a first approach to the study and understanding tsunamis. Although Morocco has known since historical times, earthquakes and tsunamis along its coasts. This preliminary study is mainly intended to show the contribution of the numerical simulation of tsunamis, with a concrete application of the 1755 Tsunami of Lisbon based on the four source zones involving the five potentially tsunamigenic faults that are generally mentioned in the literature for this major event.

  1. Analytical and Numerical Modeling of Tsunami Wave Propagation for double layer state in Bore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuvaraj, V.; Rajasekaran, S.; Nagarajan, D.

    2018-04-01

    Tsunami wave enters into the river bore in the landslide. Tsunami wave propagation are described in two-layer states. The velocity and amplitude of the tsunami wave propagation are calculated using the double layer. The numerical and analytical solutions are given for the nonlinear equation of motion of the wave propagation in a bore.

  2. A computationally fast, reduced model for simulating landslide dynamics and tsunamis generated by landslides in natural terrains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, F.

    2016-12-01

    Landslide hazards such as fast-moving debris flows, slow-moving landslides, and other mass flows cause numerous fatalities, injuries, and damage. Landslide occurrences in fjords, bays, and lakes can additionally generate tsunamis with locally extremely high wave heights and runups. Two-dimensional depth-averaged models can successfully simulate the entire lifecycle of the three-dimensional landslide dynamics and tsunami propagation efficiently and accurately with the appropriate assumptions. Landslide rheology is defined using viscous fluids, visco-plastic fluids, and granular material to account for the possible landslide source materials. Saturated and unsaturated rheologies are further included to simulate debris flow, debris avalanches, mudflows, and rockslides respectively. The models are obtained by reducing the fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with the internal rheological definition of the landslide material, the water body, and appropriate scaling assumptions to obtain the depth-averaged two-dimensional models. The landslide and tsunami models are coupled to include the interaction between the landslide and the water body for tsunami generation. The reduced models are solved numerically with a fast semi-implicit finite-volume, shock-capturing based algorithm. The well-balanced, positivity preserving algorithm accurately accounts for wet-dry interface transition for the landslide runout, landslide-water body interface, and the tsunami wave flooding on land. The models are implemented as a General-Purpose computing on Graphics Processing Unit-based (GPGPU) suite of models, either coupled or run independently within the suite. The GPGPU implementation provides up to 1000 times speedup over a CPU-based serial computation. This enables simulations of multiple scenarios of hazard realizations that provides a basis for a probabilistic hazard assessment. The models have been successfully validated against experiments, past studies, and field data

  3. Operational tsunami modeling with TsunAWI - Examples for Indonesia and Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakowsky, Natalja; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven; Immerz, Antonia; Fuchs, Annika; Behrens, Jörn; Danilov, Sergey; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

    2014-05-01

    The numerical simulation code TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The numerical simulation of prototypical tsunami scenarios plays a decisive role in the a priory risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. TsunAWI is based on a finite element discretization, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast, and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview of the model itself and presents two applications. For GITEWS, the existing scenario database covering 528 epicenters / 3450 scenarios from Sumatra to Bali was extended by 187 epicenters / 1100 scenarios in the Eastern Sunda Arc. Furthermore, about 1100 scenarios for the Western Sunda Arc were recomputed on the new model domain covering the whole Indonesian Seas. These computations would not have been feasible in the beginning of the project. The unstructured computational grid contains 7 million nodes and resolves all coastal regions with 150m, some project regions and the surrounding of tide gauges with 50m, and the deep ocean with 12km edge length. While in the Western Sunda Arc, the large islands of Sumatra and Java shield the Northern Indonesian Archipelago, tsunamis in the Eastern Sunda Arc can propagate to the North. The unstructured grid approach allows TsunAWI to easily simulate the complex propagation patterns with the self-interactions and the reflections at the coastal regions of myriads of islands. For the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Chilean Navy (SHOA), we calculated a small scenario database of 100 scenarios (sources by Universidad de Chile) to provide data for a lightweight decision support system prototype (built by DLR). This work is part of the initiation project "Multi hazard information and early warning system in cooperation with Chile" and aims at sharing our experience from GITEWS with the Chilean partners.

  4. Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

  5. Estimated damage from the Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami: A model comparisons using fragility curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, D. M.; Cox, D. T.; Chen, Y.; Weber, B. A.; Chen, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Building damage from a hypothetical Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami was estimated using two methods and applied at the community scale. The first method applies proposed guidelines for a new ASCE 7 standard to calculate the flow depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux from a known runup limit and estimate of the total tsunami energy at the shoreline. This procedure is based on a potential energy budget, uses the energy grade line, and accounts for frictional losses. The second method utilized numerical model results from previous studies to determine maximum flow depth, velocity, and momentum flux throughout the inundation zone. The towns of Seaside and Canon Beach, Oregon, were selected for analysis due to the availability of existing data from previously published works. Fragility curves, based on the hydrodynamic features of the tsunami flow (inundation depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux) and proposed design standards from ASCE 7 were used to estimate the probability of damage to structures located within the inundations zone. The analysis proceeded at the parcel level, using tax-lot data to identify construction type (wood, steel, and reinforced-concrete) and age, which was used as a performance measure when applying the fragility curves and design standards. The overall probability of damage to civil buildings was integrated for comparison between the two methods, and also analyzed spatially for damage patterns, which could be controlled by local bathymetric features. The two methods were compared to assess the sensitivity of the results to the uncertainty in the input hydrodynamic conditions and fragility curves, and the potential advantages of each method discussed. On-going work includes coupling the results of building damage and vulnerability to an economic input output model. This model assesses trade between business sectors located inside and outside the induction zone, and is used to measure the impact to the regional economy. Results highlight

  6. Tsunami Hazard Preventing Based Land Use Planning Model Using GIS Techniques in Muang Krabi, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Salam Soomro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The terrible tsunami disaster, on 26 December 2004 hit Krabi, one of the ecotourist and very fascinating provinces of southern Thailand including its various regions e.g. Phangna and Phuket by devastating the human lives, coastal communications and the financially viable activities. This research study has been aimed to generate the tsunami hazard preventing based lands use planning model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems based on the hazard suitability analysis approach. The different triggering factors e.g. elevation, proximity to shore line, population density, mangrove, forest, stream and road have been used based on the land use zoning criteria. Those criteria have been used by using Saaty scale of importance one, of the mathematical techniques. This model has been classified according to the land suitability classification. The various techniques of GIS, namely subsetting, spatial analysis, map difference and data conversion have been used. The model has been generated with five categories such as high, moderate, low, very low and not suitable regions illustrating with their appropriate definition for the decision makers to redevelop the region.

  7. Tsunami hazard preventing based land use planing model using GIS technique in Muang Krabi, Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soormo, A.S.

    2012-01-01

    The terrible tsunami disaster, on 26 December 2004 hit Krabi, one of the ecotourist and very fascinating provinces of southern Thailand including its various regions e.g. Phangna and Phuket by devastating the human lives, coastal communications and the financially viable activities. This research study has been aimed to generate the tsunami hazard preventing based lands use planning model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) based on the hazard suitability analysis approach. The different triggering factors e.g. elevation, proximity to shore line, population density, mangrove, forest, stream and road have been used based on the land use zoning criteria. Those criteria have been used by using Saaty scale of importance one, of the mathematical techniques. This model has been classified according to the land suitability classification. The various techniques of GIS, namely subsetting, spatial analysis, map difference and data conversion have been used. The model has been generated with five categories such as high, moderate, low, very low and not suitable regions illustrating with their appropriate definition for the decision makers to redevelop the region. (author)

  8. Variational Boussinesq model for simulation of coastal waves and tsunamis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adytia, D.; Adytia, Didit; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Tan, Soon Keat; Huang, Zhenhua

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we describe the basic ideas of a so-called Variational Boussinesq Model which is based on the Hamiltonian structure of gravity surface waves. By using a rather simple approach to prescribe the profile of vertical fluid potential in the expression for the kinetic energy, we obtain a set

  9. The 2006 July 17 Java (Indonesia) tsunami from satellite imagery and numerical modelling: a single or complex source?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, H.; Burg, P.-E.; Binet, R.; Lavigne, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Schindelé, F.

    2012-12-01

    The Mw 7.8 2006 July 17 earthquake off the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, has been responsible for a very large tsunami causing more than 700 casualties. The tsunami has been observed on at least 200 km of coastline in the region of Pangandaran (West Java), with run-up heights from 5 to more than 20 m. Such a large tsunami, with respect to the source magnitude, has been attributed to the slow character of the seismic rupture, defining the event as a so-called tsunami earthquake, but it has also been suggested that the largest run-up heights are actually the result of a second local landslide source. Here we test whether a single slow earthquake source can explain the tsunami run-up, using a combination of new detailed data in the region of the largest run-ups and comparison with modelled run-ups for a range of plausible earthquake source models. Using high-resolution satellite imagery (SPOT 5 and Quickbird), the coastal impact of the tsunami is refined in the surroundings of the high-security Permisan prison on Nusa Kambangan island, where 20 m run-up had been recorded directly after the event. These data confirm the extreme inundation lengths close to the prison, and extend the area of maximum impact further along the Nusa Kambangan island (about 20 km of shoreline), where inundation lengths reach several hundreds of metres, suggesting run-up as high as 10-15 m. Tsunami modelling has been conducted in detail for the high run-up Permisan area (Nusa Kambangan) and the PLTU power plant about 25 km eastwards, where run-up reached only 4-6 m and a video recording of the tsunami arrival is available. For the Permisan prison a high-resolution DEM was built from stereoscopic satellite imagery. The regular basin of the PLTU plant was designed using photographs and direct observations. For the earthquake's mechanism, both static (infinite) and finite (kinematic) ruptures are investigated using two published source models. The models account rather well for the sea level

  10. Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Roberto Fonseca

    Full Text Available Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

  11. Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

    2013-01-01

    Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

  12. How much does geometry of seismic sources matter in tsunami modeling? A sensitivity analysis for the Calabrian subduction interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, R.; Maesano, F. E.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Basili, R.

    2017-12-01

    The geometry of seismogenic sources could be one of the most important factors concurring to control the generation and the propagation of earthquake-generated tsunamis and their effects on the coasts. Since the majority of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occur offshore, the corresponding faults are generally poorly constrained and, consequently, their geometry is often oversimplified as a planar fault. The rupture area of mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones, where most of the greatest tsunamis have occurred, extends for tens to hundreds of kilometers both down dip and along strike, and generally deviates from the planar geometry. Therefore, the larger the earthquake size is, the weaker the planar fault assumption become. In this work, we present a sensitivity analysis aimed to explore the effects on modeled tsunamis generated by seismic sources with different degrees of geometric complexities. We focused on the Calabrian subduction zone, located in the Mediterranean Sea, which is characterized by the convergence between the African and European plates, with rates of up to 5 mm/yr. This subduction zone has been considered to have generated some past large earthquakes and tsunamis, despite it shows only in-slab significant seismic activity below 40 km depth and no relevant seismicity in the shallower portion of the interface. Our analysis is performed by defining and modeling an exhaustive set of tsunami scenarios located in the Calabrian subduction and using different models of the subduction interface with increasing geometrical complexity, from a planar surface to a highly detailed 3D surface. The latter was obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles coupled with the analysis of the seismicity distribution. The more relevant effects due to the inclusion of 3D complexities in the seismic source geometry are finally highlighted in terms of the resulting tsunami impact.

  13. Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

  14. Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.

    2018-04-01

    The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

  15. Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.

    2018-02-01

    The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

  16. Source fault model of the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, estimated from the detailed distribution of tsunami run-up heights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuta, Nobuhisa; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Sugito, Nobuhiko; Nakata, Takashi; Watanabe, Mitsuhisa

    2015-01-01

    The distribution of tsunami run-up heights generally has spatial variations, because run-up heights are controlled by coastal topography including local-scale landforms such as natural levees, in addition to land use. Focusing on relationships among coastal topography, land conditions, and tsunami run-up heights of historical tsunamis—Meiji Sanriku (1896 A.D.), Syowa Sanriku (1933 A.D.), and Chilean Sanriku (1960 A.D.) tsunamis—along the Sanriku coast, it is found that the wavelength of a tsunami determines inundation areas as well as run-up heights. Small bays facing the Pacific Ocean are sensitive to short wavelength tsunamis, and large bays are sensitive to long wavelength tsunamis. The tsunami observed off Kamaishi during the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake was composed of both short and long wavelength components. We examined run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami, and found that: (1) coastal areas north of Kamaishi and south of Yamamoto were mainly attacked by short wavelength tsunamis; and (2) no evidence of short wavelength tsunamis was observed from Ofunato to the Oshika Peninsula. This observation coincides with the geomorphologically proposed source fault model, and indicates that the extraordinary large slip along the shallow part of the plate boundary off Sendai, proposed by seismological and geodesic analyses, is not needed to explain the run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami. To better understand spatial variations of tsunami run-up heights, submarine crustal movements, and source faults, a detailed analysis is required of coastal topography, land conditions, and submarine tectonic landforms from the perspective of geomorphology. (author)

  17. Statistical behaviour of adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms in simple models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolland, Joran; Simonnet, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms have been introduced rather recently for estimating tail distributions in a fast and efficient way. In particular, they can be used for computing the so-called reactive trajectories corresponding to direct transitions from one metastable state to another. The algorithm is based on successive selection–mutation steps performed on the system in a controlled way. It has two intrinsic parameters, the number of particles/trajectories and the reaction coordinate used for discriminating good or bad trajectories. We investigate first the convergence in law of the algorithm as a function of the timestep for several simple stochastic models. Second, we consider the average duration of reactive trajectories for which no theoretical predictions exist. The most important aspect of this work concerns some systems with two degrees of freedom. They are studied in detail as a function of the reaction coordinate in the asymptotic regime where the number of trajectories goes to infinity. We show that during phase transitions, the statistics of the algorithm deviate significatively from known theoretical results when using non-optimal reaction coordinates. In this case, the variance of the algorithm is peaking at the transition and the convergence of the algorithm can be much slower than the usual expected central limit behaviour. The duration of trajectories is affected as well. Moreover, reactive trajectories do not correspond to the most probable ones. Such behaviour disappears when using the optimal reaction coordinate called committor as predicted by the theory. We finally investigate a three-state Markov chain which reproduces this phenomenon and show logarithmic convergence of the trajectory durations

  18. Tsunami hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  19. Tsunami hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  20. Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

    2015-04-01

    This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  1. Elementary and advanced modelling of the splitting strength of timber connections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoenmakers, J.C.M.D.

    2008-01-01

    The load-bearing capacity of a timber member loaded perpendicular-to-grain by a connection is governed by either the embedment strength, the bending yield strength of the steel fasteners, or the splitting strength of the timber. Only coarse models for predicting the splitting strength are

  2. Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

    2009-04-01

    Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of

  3. On Optimal Data Split for Generalization Estimation and Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan; Goutte, Cyril

    1999-01-01

    The paper is concerned with studying the very different behavior of the two data splits using hold-out cross-validation, K-fold cross-validation and randomized permutation cross-validation. First we describe the theoretical basics of various cross-validation techniques with the purpose of reliably...

  4. Modelling of Split Condenser Heat Pump: Optimization and Exergy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Stefan Wuust; Elmegaard, Brian; Markussen, Wiebke Brix

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a numerical study of a split condenser heat pump (SCHP). The SCHP setup differs from a traditional heat pump (THP) setup in the way that two separate water streams on the secondary side of the condenser are heated in parallel to different temperature levels, whereas only one...

  5. Extension of the direct statistical approach to a volume parameter model (non-integer splitting)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burn, K.W.

    1990-01-01

    The Direct Statistical Approach is a rigorous mathematical derivation of the second moment for surface splitting and Russian Roulette games attached to the Monte Carlo modelling of fixed source particle transport. It has been extended to a volume parameter model (involving non-integer ''expected value'' splitting), and then to a cell model. The cell model gives second moment and time functions that have a closed form. This suggests the possibility of two different methods of solution of the optimum splitting/Russian Roulette parameters. (author)

  6. Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco, which poured approximately 2–3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m and Panarea.

    The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3. The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and

  7. Project TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling) (2014-2018): a French initiative to draw lessons from the Tohoku-oki tsunami on French coastal nuclear facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, Hélène; Abadie, Stéphane; Benoit, Michel; Créach, Ronan; Frère, Antoine; Gailler, Audrey; Garzaglia, Sébastien; Hayashi, Yutaka; Loevenbruck, Anne; Macary, Olivier; Marcer, Richard; Morichon, Denis; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Rebour, Vincent; Ricchiuto, Mario; Silva Jacinto, Ricardo; Terrier, Monique; Toucanne, Samuel; Traversa, Paola; Violeau, Damien

    2014-05-01

    TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling) is a French research project dedicated to the appraisal of coastal effects due to tsunami waves on the French coastlines, with a special focus on the Atlantic and Channel coastlines, where French civil nuclear facilities have been operating since about 30 years. This project aims at drawing conclusions from the 2011 catastrophic tsunami, and will allow, together with a Japanese research partner, to design, adapt and validate numerical methods of tsunami hazard assessment, using the outstanding database of the 2011 tsunami. Then the validated methods will be applied to estimate, as accurately as possible, the tsunami hazard for the French Atlantic and Channel coastlines, in order to provide guidance for risk assessment on the nuclear facilities. The project TANDEM follows the recommendations of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to analyse the tsunami exposure of the nuclear facilities, as well as the recommendations of the French Nuclear Safety Authority (Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire, ASN) in the aftermath of the 2011 catastrophe, which required the licensee of nuclear facilities to conduct complementary safety assessments (CSA), also including "the robustness beyond their design basis". The tsunami hazard deserves an appraisal in the light of the 2011 catastrophe, to check whether any unforeseen tsunami impact can be expected for these facilities. TANDEM aims at defining the tsunami effects expected for the French Atlantic and Channel coastlines, basically from numerical modeling methods, through adaptation and improvement of numerical methods, in order to study tsunami impacts down to the interaction with coastal structures (thus sometimes using 3D approaches) (WP1). Then the methods will be tested to better characterize and quantify the associated uncertainties (in the source, the propagation, and the coastal impact) (WP2). The project will

  8. PTSD's latent structure in Malaysian tsunami victims: assessing the newly proposed Dysphoric Arousal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Cherie; Raudzah Ghazali, Siti; Elklit, Ask

    2013-03-30

    The underlying latent structure of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is widely researched. However, despite a plethora of factor analytic studies, no single model has consistently been shown as superior to alternative models. The two most often supported models are the Emotional Numbing and the Dysphoria models. However, a recently proposed five-factor Dysphoric Arousal model has been gathering support over and above existing models. Data for the current study were gathered from Malaysian Tsunami survivors (N=250). Three competing models (Emotional Numbing/Dysphoria/Dysphoric Arousal) were specified and estimated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The Dysphoria model provided superior fit to the data compared to the Emotional Numbing model. However, using chi-square difference tests, the Dysphoric Arousal model showed a superior fit compared to both the Emotional Numbing and Dysphoria models. In conclusion, the current results suggest that the Dysphoric Arousal model better represents PTSD's latent structure and that items measuring sleeping difficulties, irritability/anger and concentration difficulties form a separate, unique PTSD factor. These results are discussed in relation to the role of Hyperarousal in PTSD's on-going symptom maintenance and in relation to the DSM-5. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Richards, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure as a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

  10. Numerical modeling of isothermal compositional grading by convex splitting methods

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Yiteng

    2017-04-09

    In this paper, an isothermal compositional grading process is simulated based on convex splitting methods with the Peng-Robinson equation of state. We first present a new form of gravity/chemical equilibrium condition by minimizing the total energy which consists of Helmholtz free energy and gravitational potential energy, and incorporating Lagrange multipliers for mass conservation. The time-independent equilibrium equations are transformed into a system of transient equations as our solution strategy. It is proved our time-marching scheme is unconditionally energy stable by the semi-implicit convex splitting method in which the convex part of Helmholtz free energy and its derivative are treated implicitly and the concave parts are treated explicitly. With relaxation factor controlling Newton iteration, our method is able to converge to a solution with satisfactory accuracy if a good initial estimate of mole compositions is provided. More importantly, it helps us automatically split the unstable single phase into two phases, determine the existence of gas-oil contact (GOC) and locate its position if GOC does exist. A number of numerical examples are presented to show the performance of our method.

  11. Enhancing Earth Observation and Modeling for Tsunami Disaster Response and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshimura, Shunichi; Post, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, our society has experienced significant difficulties in assessing disaster impact in the limited amount of time. In recent years, the quality of satellite sensors and access to and use of satellite imagery and services has greatly improved. More and more space agencies have embraced data-sharing policies that facilitate access to archived and up-to-date imagery. Tremendous progress has been achieved through the continuous development of powerful algorithms and software packages to manage and process geospatial data and to disseminate imagery and geospatial datasets in near-real time via geo-web-services, which can be used in disaster-risk management and emergency response efforts. Satellite Earth observations now offer consistent coverage and scope to provide a synoptic overview of large areas, repeated regularly. These can be used to compare risk across different countries, day and night, in all weather conditions, and in trans-boundary areas. On the other hand, with use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, the great advances of real-time simulation have been achieved. The data and information derived from satellite Earth observations, integrated with in situ information and simulation modeling provides unique value and the necessary complement to socio-economic data. Emphasis also needs to be placed on ensuring space-based data and information are used in existing and planned national and local disaster risk management systems, together with other data and information sources as a way to strengthen the resilience of communities. Through the case studies of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami disaster, we aim to discuss how earth observations and modeling, in combination with local, in situ data and information sources, can support the decision-making process before, during and after a disaster strikes.

  12. Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Klavitter, John; Courtot, Karen

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands

  13. Synthetic tsunamis along the Israeli coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, Joshua; Stiassnie, Michael

    2012-04-13

    The new mathematical model for tsunami evolution by Tobias & Stiassnie (Tobias & Stiassnie 2011 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 116, C06026) is used to derive a synthetic tsunami database for the southern part of the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Information about coastal tsunami amplitudes, half-periods, currents and inundation levels is presented.

  14. Tsunamis - General

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tsunami is a Japanese word meaning harbor wave. It is a water wave or a series of waves generated by an impulsive vertical displacement of the surface of the ocean...

  15. Tunnel splitting in biaxial spin models investigated with spin-coherent-state path integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhide; Liang, J.-Q.; Pu, F.-C.

    2003-01-01

    Tunnel splitting in biaxial spin models is investigated with a full evaluation of the fluctuation functional integrals of the Euclidean kernel in the framework of spin-coherent-state path integrals which leads to a magnitude of tunnel splitting quantitatively comparable with the numerical results in terms of diagonalization of the Hamilton operator. An additional factor resulted from a global time transformation converting the position-dependent mass to a constant one seems to be equivalent to the semiclassical correction of the Lagrangian proposed by Enz and Schilling. A long standing question whether the spin-coherent-state representation of path integrals can result in an accurate tunnel splitting is therefore resolved

  16. Calculation of Tsunami Damage and preparation of Inundation Maps by 2D and 3D numerical modeling in Göcek, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer Sozdinler, C.; Arikawa, T.; Necmioglu, O.; Ozel, N. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Aegean and its surroundings form the most active part of the Africa-Eurasia collision zone responsible for the high level of seismicity in this region. It constitutes more than 60% of the expected seismicity in Europe up to Mw=8.2 (Moratto et al., 2007; Papazachos, 1990). Shaw and Jackson (2010) argued that the existing system of Hellenic Arc subduction-zone is capable of allowing very large but rare earthquakes on splay faults, such as the one occurred in 365, together with the contribution of small earthquakes. Based on an extensive earthquake generated tsunami scenario database, Necmioğlu and Özel (2015) showed that maximum wave heights in the Eastern Mediterranean for shallow earthquakes defined is >3 m in locations in, around and orthogonal to the Hellenic Arc. Considering the seismicity and the tsunami potential in Eastern Mediterranean, the investigation and monitoring of earthquake and tsunami hazard, and the preparation of mitigation strategies and national resilience plans would become inevitable in Turkey. Gocek town, as one of the Tsunami Forecast Points having a unique geography with many small bays and islands and a very popular touristic destination especially for yachtsmen, is selected in this study for the tsunami modeling by using high resolution bathymetric and topographic data with less than 4m grid size. The tsunami analyses are performed by the numerical codes NAMIDANCE (NAMIDANCE,2011) for 2D modeling and STOC-CADMAS (Arikawa,2014) for 3D modeling for the calculations of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters. Froude numbers, as one of the most important indicators for tsunami damage (Ozer, 2012) and the directions of current velocities inside marinas are solved by NAMIDANCE while STOC-CADMAS determines the tsunami pressure and force exerted onto the sea and land structures with 3D and non-hydrostatic approaches. The results are then used to determine the tsunami inundation and structural resilience and establish the tsunami preparedness and

  17. Spin-splitting calculation for zincblende semiconductors using an atomic bond-orbital model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kao, Hsiu-Fen; Lo, Ikai; Chiang, Jih-Chen; Wang, Wan-Tsang; Hsu, Yu-Chi; Wu, Chieh-Lung; Gau, Ming-Hong; Chen, Chun-Nan; Ren, Chung-Yuan; Lee, Meng-En

    2012-01-01

    We develop a 16-band atomic bond-orbital model (16ABOM) to compute the spin splitting induced by bulk inversion asymmetry in zincblende materials. This model is derived from the linear combination of atomic-orbital (LCAO) scheme such that the characteristics of the real atomic orbitals can be preserved to calculate the spin splitting. The Hamiltonian of 16ABOM is based on a similarity transformation performed on the nearest-neighbor LCAO Hamiltonian with a second-order Taylor expansion over k-vector at the Γ point. The spin-splitting energies in bulk zincblende semiconductors, GaAs and InSb, are calculated, and the results agree with the LCAO and first-principles calculations. However, we find that the spin-orbit coupling between bonding and antibonding p-like states, evaluated by the 16ABOM, dominates the spin splitting of the lowest conduction bands in the zincblende materials.

  18. Surface thickness effects and splitting of multipole excitations in deformed nuclei. [Sum rule, hydrodynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christillin, P [Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa (Italy); Lipparini, E; Stringari, S [Dipartimento Matematica e Fisica, Trento, Italy

    1978-09-25

    A sum-rule approach is used to study the influence of surface thickness upon the splitting of dipole and isoscalar quadrupole energies in deformed nuclei. It is shown that hydrodynamic model results are recovered in the case of a deformed skin thickness. A constant skin thickness leads in the dipole case to slightly different predictions which seem in better agreement with experiments. The splitting of the isoscalar quadrupole mode is not sensitive to the surface thickness shape.

  19. Real-Time Detection of Tsunami Ionospheric Disturbances with a Stand-Alone GNSS Receiver: A Preliminary Feasibility Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savastano, Giorgio; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Mazzoni, Augusto; Crespi, Mattia; Wei, Yong; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2017-04-01

    It is well known that tsunamis can produce gravity waves that propagate up to the ionosphere generating disturbed electron densities in the E and F regions. These ionospheric disturbances can be studied in detail using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements collected by continuously operating ground-based receivers from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, we present results using a new approach, named VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), and estimate slant TEC (sTEC) variations in a real-time scenario. Using the VARION algorithm we compute TEC variations at 56 GPS receivers in Hawaii as induced by the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami event. We observe TEC perturbations with amplitudes of up to 0.25 TEC units and traveling ionospheric perturbations (TIDs) moving away from the earthquake epicenter at an approximate speed of 316 m/s. We perform a wavelet analysis to analyze localized variations of power in the TEC time series and we find perturbation periods consistent with a tsunami typical deep ocean period. Finally, we present comparisons with the real-time tsunami MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model produced by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research and we observe variations in TEC that correlate in time and space with the tsunami waves.

  20. Node-Splitting Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Evaluation of Inconsistency in Network Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu-Kang, Tu

    2016-12-01

    Network meta-analysis for multiple treatment comparisons has been a major development in evidence synthesis methodology. The validity of a network meta-analysis, however, can be threatened by inconsistency in evidence within the network. One particular issue of inconsistency is how to directly evaluate the inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence with regard to the effects difference between two treatments. A Bayesian node-splitting model was first proposed and a similar frequentist side-splitting model has been put forward recently. Yet, assigning the inconsistency parameter to one or the other of the two treatments or splitting the parameter symmetrically between the two treatments can yield different results when multi-arm trials are involved in the evaluation. We aimed to show that a side-splitting model can be viewed as a special case of design-by-treatment interaction model, and different parameterizations correspond to different design-by-treatment interactions. We demonstrated how to evaluate the side-splitting model using the arm-based generalized linear mixed model, and an example data set was used to compare results from the arm-based models with those from the contrast-based models. The three parameterizations of side-splitting make slightly different assumptions: the symmetrical method assumes that both treatments in a treatment contrast contribute to inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence, whereas the other two parameterizations assume that only one of the two treatments contributes to this inconsistency. With this understanding in mind, meta-analysts can then make a choice about how to implement the side-splitting method for their analysis. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatial Modeling of Tsunami Impact in Manado City using Geographic Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumaat, J. C.; Kandoli, S. T. B.; Laeloma, F.

    2018-02-01

    Manado City is a coastal area in the shape of a bay. Manado Bay is a water body that protrudes in the area of Manado City where the condition of this region is likely to have a tsunami threat. Manado Bay is home to several rivers such as Tondano River has a geological history of both land and sea. There are several active faults, such as in the sea, subduction of subplate in the north of the island, Mayu mountain plate, and Sangihe plate east of North Sulawesi. The purpose of this study is divided into two parts: General purpose is to describe GIS-based disaster mitigation that can be done to minimize disaster risk if Tsunami disaster occurs in coastal area of Manado Bay, while special purpose consists of 3 parts, namely: 1. mapping of zone- Tsunami vulnerability zone of Manado Bay; 2. mapping the distance and time of the scenario of the Manado Bay Tsunami evacuation route; 3. mapping of the number of buildings and roads exposed to the Manado Bay Tsunami. Data collection techniques use secondary data collection techniques. Secondary data comes from related institutions or institutions, libraries, or individual archives. The data collection is also continued by direct observation. Direct observation is meant by direct observation by using a checklist for secondary data adjustment and then the determination of coordinate point with Global Position System (GPS) at some tsunami location.

  2. Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

  3. Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Schmidtlein, Mathew; Schelling, John; Frazier, T.

    2016-01-01

    Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

  4. Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

    2006-12-01

    The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

  5. Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field

  6. A numerical study of tsunami wave impact and run-up on coastal cliffs using a CIP-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xizeng; Chen, Yong; Huang, Zhenhua; Hu, Zijun; Gao, Yangyang

    2017-05-01

    There is a general lack of understanding of tsunami wave interaction with complex geographies, especially the process of inundation. Numerical simulations are performed to understand the effects of several factors on tsunami wave impact and run-up in the presence of gentle submarine slopes and coastal cliffs, using an in-house code, a constrained interpolation profile (CIP)-based model. The model employs a high-order finite difference method, the CIP method, as the flow solver; utilizes a VOF-type method, the tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing/slope weighting (THINC/SW) scheme, to capture the free surface; and treats the solid boundary by an immersed boundary method. A series of incident waves are arranged to interact with varying coastal geographies. Numerical results are compared with experimental data and good agreement is obtained. The influences of gentle submarine slope, coastal cliff and incident wave height are discussed. It is found that the tsunami amplification factor varying with incident wave is affected by gradient of cliff slope, and the critical value is about 45°. The run-up on a toe-erosion cliff is smaller than that on a normal cliff. The run-up is also related to the length of a gentle submarine slope with a critical value of about 2.292 m in the present model for most cases. The impact pressure on the cliff is extremely large and concentrated, and the backflow effect is non-negligible. Results of our work are highly precise and helpful in inverting tsunami source and forecasting disaster.

  7. On the characteristics of landslide tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, F; Pedersen, G; Harbitz, C B; Glimsdal, S; Kim, J

    2015-10-28

    This review presents modelling techniques and processes that govern landslide tsunami generation, with emphasis on tsunamis induced by fully submerged landslides. The analysis focuses on a set of representative examples in simplified geometries demonstrating the main kinematic landslide parameters influencing initial tsunami amplitudes and wavelengths. Scaling relations from laboratory experiments for subaerial landslide tsunamis are also briefly reviewed. It is found that the landslide acceleration determines the initial tsunami elevation for translational landslides, while the landslide velocity is more important for impulsive events such as rapid slumps and subaerial landslides. Retrogressive effects stretch the tsunami, and in certain cases produce enlarged amplitudes due to positive interference. In an example involving a deformable landslide, it is found that the landslide deformation has only a weak influence on tsunamigenesis. However, more research is needed to determine how landslide flow processes that involve strong deformation and long run-out determine tsunami generation. © 2015 The Authors.

  8. Tsunami response system for ports in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, H.-R.; Cho, J.-S.; Cho, Y.-S.

    2015-09-01

    The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decade have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis, particularly the eastern coastal areas, which have long sustained tsunami damage. The eastern coast had been attacked by 1983 and 1993 tsunami events. The aim of this study was to mitigate the casualties and property damage against unexpected tsunami attacks along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula by developing a proper tsunami response system for important ports and harbors with high population densities and high concentrations of key national industries. The system is made based on numerical and physical modelings of 3 historical and 11 virtual tsunamis events, field surveys, and extensive interviews with related people.

  9. Checking the Adequacy of Fit of Models from Split-Plot Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almini, A. A.; Kulahci, Murat; Montgomery, D. C.

    2009-01-01

    models. In this article, we propose the computation of two R-2, R-2-adjusted, prediction error sums of squares (PRESS), and R-2-prediction statistics to measure the adequacy of fit for the WP and the SP submodels in a split-plot design. This is complemented with the graphical analysis of the two types......One of the main features that distinguish split-plot experiments from other experiments is that they involve two types of experimental errors: the whole-plot (WP) error and the subplot (SP) error. Taking this into consideration is very important when computing measures of adequacy of fit for split-plot...... of errors to check for any violation of the underlying assumptions and the adequacy of fit of split-plot models. Using examples, we show how computing two measures of model adequacy of fit for each split-plot design model is appropriate and useful as they reveal whether the correct WP and SP effects have...

  10. Automated generation of node-splitting models for assessment of inconsistency in network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Valkenhoef, Gert; Dias, Sofia; Ades, A E; Welton, Nicky J

    2016-03-01

    Network meta-analysis enables the simultaneous synthesis of a network of clinical trials comparing any number of treatments. Potential inconsistencies between estimates of relative treatment effects are an important concern, and several methods to detect inconsistency have been proposed. This paper is concerned with the node-splitting approach, which is particularly attractive because of its straightforward interpretation, contrasting estimates from both direct and indirect evidence. However, node-splitting analyses are labour-intensive because each comparison of interest requires a separate model. It would be advantageous if node-splitting models could be estimated automatically for all comparisons of interest. We present an unambiguous decision rule to choose which comparisons to split, and prove that it selects only comparisons in potentially inconsistent loops in the network, and that all potentially inconsistent loops in the network are investigated. Moreover, the decision rule circumvents problems with the parameterisation of multi-arm trials, ensuring that model generation is trivial in all cases. Thus, our methods eliminate most of the manual work involved in using the node-splitting approach, enabling the analyst to focus on interpreting the results. © 2015 The Authors Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Analytical model for double split ring resonators with arbitrary ring width

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhurbenko, Vitaliy; Jensen, Thomas; Krozer, Viktor

    2008-01-01

    For the first time, the analytical model for a double split ring resonator with unequal width rings is developed. The proposed models for the resonators with equal and unequal widths are based on an impedance matrix representation and provide the prediction of performance in a wide frequency range...

  12. An acoustic-convective splitting-based approach for the Kapila two-phase flow model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eikelder, M.F.P. ten, E-mail: m.f.p.teneikelder@tudelft.nl [EDF R& D, AMA, 7 boulevard Gaspard Monge, 91120 Palaiseau (France); Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Daude, F. [EDF R& D, AMA, 7 boulevard Gaspard Monge, 91120 Palaiseau (France); IMSIA, UMR EDF-CNRS-CEA-ENSTA 9219, Université Paris Saclay, 828 Boulevard des Maréchaux, 91762 Palaiseau (France); Koren, B.; Tijsseling, A.S. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2017-02-15

    In this paper we propose a new acoustic-convective splitting-based numerical scheme for the Kapila five-equation two-phase flow model. The splitting operator decouples the acoustic waves and convective waves. The resulting two submodels are alternately numerically solved to approximate the solution of the entire model. The Lagrangian form of the acoustic submodel is numerically solved using an HLLC-type Riemann solver whereas the convective part is approximated with an upwind scheme. The result is a simple method which allows for a general equation of state. Numerical computations are performed for standard two-phase shock tube problems. A comparison is made with a non-splitting approach. The results are in good agreement with reference results and exact solutions.

  13. Wave-splitting in the bistable Gray-Scott model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, K.E.; Mazin, W.; Mosekilde, Erik

    1996-01-01

    The Gray-Scott model describes a chemical reaction in which an activator species grows autocatalytically on a continuously fed substrate. For certain feed rates and activator life times the model shows the coexistence of two homogeneous steady states. The blue state, where the activator concentra......The Gray-Scott model describes a chemical reaction in which an activator species grows autocatalytically on a continuously fed substrate. For certain feed rates and activator life times the model shows the coexistence of two homogeneous steady states. The blue state, where the activator...

  14. Coastal Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for tsunami hazard assessment on the French coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maspataud, Aurélie; Biscara, Laurie; Hébert, Hélène; Schmitt, Thierry; Créach, Ronan

    2015-04-01

    Building precise and up-to-date coastal DEMs is a prerequisite for accurate modeling and forecasting of hydrodynamic processes at local scale. Marine flooding, originating from tsunamis, storm surges or waves, is one of them. Some high resolution DEMs are being generated for multiple coast configurations (gulf, embayment, strait, estuary, harbor approaches, low-lying areas…) along French Atlantic and Channel coasts. This work is undertaken within the framework of the TANDEM project (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling) (2014-2017). DEMs boundaries were defined considering the vicinity of French civil nuclear facilities, site effects considerations and potential tsunamigenic sources. Those were identified from available historical observations. Seamless integrated topographic and bathymetric coastal DEMs will be used by institutions taking part in the study to simulate expected wave height at regional and local scale on the French coasts, for a set of defined scenarii. The main tasks were (1) the development of a new capacity of production of DEM, (2) aiming at the release of high resolution and precision digital field models referred to vertical reference frameworks, that require (3) horizontal and vertical datum conversions (all source elevation data need to be transformed to a common datum), on the basis of (4) the building of (national and/or local) conversion grids of datum relationships based on known measurements. Challenges in coastal DEMs development deal with good practices throughout model development that can help minimizing uncertainties. This is particularly true as scattered elevation data with variable density, from multiple sources (national hydrographic services, state and local government agencies, research organizations and private engineering companies) and from many different types (paper fieldsheets to be digitized, single beam echo sounder, multibeam sonar, airborne laser

  15. Tsunami.gov: NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.

    2014-12-01

    We present the new Tsunami.gov website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The Tsunami.gov portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand Tsunami.gov to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into

  16. Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian transport of large debris by tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Daniel A. S.; Ferreira, Rui M. L.; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are notorious for the large disruption they can cause on coastal environments, not only due to the imparted momentum of the incoming wave but also due to its capacity to transport large quantities of solid debris, either from natural or human-made sources, over great distances. A 2DH numerical model under development at CERIS-IST (Ferreira et al., 2009; Conde, 2013) - STAV2D - capable of simulating solid transport in both Eulerian and Lagrangian paradigms will be used to assess the relevance of Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling when modelling the transport of solid debris by tsunamis. The model has been previously validated and applied to tsunami scenarios (Conde, 2013), being well-suited for overland tsunami propagation and capable of handling morphodynamic changes in estuaries and seashores. The discretization scheme is an explicit Finite Volume technique employing flux-vector splitting and a reviewed Roe-Riemann solver. Source term formulations are employed in a semi-implicit way, including the two-way coupling of the Lagrangian and Eulerian solvers by means of conservative mass and momentum transfers between fluid and solid phases. The model was applied to Sines Port, a major commercial port in Portugal, where two tsunamigenic scenarios are considered: an 8.5 Mw scenario, consistent with the Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami of the 1st November 1755 (Baptista, 2009), and an hypothetical 9.5 Mw worst-case scenario based on the same historical event. Open-ocean propagation of these scenarios were simulated with GeoClaw model from ClawPack (Leveque, 2011). Following previous efforts on the modelling of debris transport by tsunamis in seaports (Conde, 2015), this work discusses the sensitivity of the obtained results with respect to the phenomenological detail of the employed Eulerian-Lagrangian formulation and the resolution of the mesh used in the Eulerian solver. The results have shown that the fluid to debris mass ratio is the key parameter regarding the

  17. The Efficiency of Split Panel Designs in an Analysis of Variance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Guo; Liu, Hai-Jun

    2016-01-01

    We consider split panel design efficiency in analysis of variance models, that is, the determination of the cross-sections series optimal proportion in all samples, to minimize parametric best linear unbiased estimators of linear combination variances. An orthogonal matrix is constructed to obtain manageable expression of variances. On this basis, we derive a theorem for analyzing split panel design efficiency irrespective of interest and budget parameters. Additionally, relative estimator efficiency based on the split panel to an estimator based on a pure panel or a pure cross-section is present. The analysis shows that the gains from split panel can be quite substantial. We further consider the efficiency of split panel design, given a budget, and transform it to a constrained nonlinear integer programming. Specifically, an efficient algorithm is designed to solve the constrained nonlinear integer programming. Moreover, we combine one at time designs and factorial designs to illustrate the algorithm’s efficiency with an empirical example concerning monthly consumer expenditure on food in 1985, in the Netherlands, and the efficient ranges of the algorithm parameters are given to ensure a good solution. PMID:27163447

  18. Trapped waves of the 27 November 1945 Makran tsunami: observations and numerical modeling

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Neetu, S.; Suresh, I.; Shankar, R.; Nagarajan, B.; Sharma, R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Sundar, D.

    the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the alongshore direction within a approx 300-km stretch...

  19. Two Phase Flow Split Model for Parallel Channels | Iloeje | Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model and code are capable of handling single and two phase flows, steady states and transients, up to ten parallel flow paths, simple and complicated geometries, including the boilers of fossil steam generators and nuclear power plants. A test calculation has been made with a simplified three-channel system ...

  20. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

    2014-12-10

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

  1. Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Raphaël

    2015-10-28

    Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

  2. TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Theilen-Willige

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  3. Finite frequency shear wave splitting tomography: a model space search approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, P.; Long, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Observations of seismic anisotropy provide key constraints on past and present mantle deformation. A common method for upper mantle anisotropy is to measure shear wave splitting parameters (delay time and fast direction). However, the interpretation is not straightforward, because splitting measurements represent an integration of structure along the ray path. A tomographic approach that allows for localization of anisotropy is desirable; however, tomographic inversion for anisotropic structure is a daunting task, since 21 parameters are needed to describe general anisotropy. Such a large parameter space does not allow a straightforward application of tomographic inversion. Building on previous work on finite frequency shear wave splitting tomography, this study aims to develop a framework for SKS splitting tomography with a new parameterization of anisotropy and a model space search approach. We reparameterize the full elastic tensor, reducing the number of parameters to three (a measure of strength based on symmetry considerations for olivine, plus the dip and azimuth of the fast symmetry axis). We compute Born-approximation finite frequency sensitivity kernels relating model perturbations to splitting intensity observations. The strong dependence of the sensitivity kernels on the starting anisotropic model, and thus the strong non-linearity of the inverse problem, makes a linearized inversion infeasible. Therefore, we implement a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique in the inversion procedure. We have performed tests with synthetic data sets to evaluate computational costs and infer the resolving power of our algorithm for synthetic models with multiple anisotropic layers. Our technique can resolve anisotropic parameters on length scales of ˜50 km for realistic station and event configurations for dense broadband experiments. We are proceeding towards applications to real data sets, with an initial focus on the High Lava Plains of Oregon.

  4. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-01-01

    parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while

  5. Projected inundations on the South African coast by tsunami waves

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hayley.Cawthra

    wind waves and swells, and because of its relatively short period, .... Inundation modelling attempts to recreate the tsunami generation in deep or ... The preservation of tsunami deposits in the coastal geological record is a function of the.

  6. Combining SLBL routine with landslide-generated tsunami model for a quick hazard assessment tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Martin; Rudaz, Benjamin; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Podladchikov, Yury

    2016-04-01

    Regions with steep topography are potentially subject to landslide-induced tsunami, because of the proximity between lakes, rivers, sea shores and potential instabilities. The concentration of the population and infrastructures on the water body shores and downstream valleys could lead to catastrophic consequences. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a tool which allows the construction of the landslide geometry, and which is able to simulate its propagation, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. The tool is developed in the Matlab© environment, with a graphical user interface (GUI) to select the parameters in a user-friendly manner. The whole process is done in three steps implying different methods. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The intensity map is based on the criterion of flooding in Switzerland provided by the OFEG and results from the multiplication of the velocity and the depth obtained during the simulation. The tool can be used for hazard assessment in the case of well-known landslides, where the SLBL routine can be constrained and checked for realistic construction of the geometrical model. In less-known cases, various failure plane geometries can be automatically built between given range and thus a multi-scenario approach is used. In any case, less-known parameters such as the landslide velocity, its run-out distance, etc. can also be set to vary within given ranges, leading to multi

  7. Turbulent-flow split model and supporting experiments for wire-wrapped core assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, C.; Todreas, N.; Rohsenow, W.

    1978-04-01

    A flow split model for the turbulent flow in a wire-wrapped nuclear fuel rod assembly is developed taking the form drag and sweeping flow between subchannels into consideration. This model is applicable to the flow distribution between two types of subchannels, i.e., interior and edge subchannels. The constants in this model for each type of subchannel were determined using all experimental data in the literature and the results of two tests performed as part of this study to fill a gap in the available literature. These experiments to measure flow split were performed on two wire-wrapped 61 pin bundles of pin pitch to pin diameter ratio, P/D, equal to 1.063 and wire lead to pin diameter ratios, H/D, of 4 and 8. The predictions of this model match all experimental data in the literature within +- 5%

  8. Market splitting in Germany – New evidence from a three-stage numerical model of Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trepper, Katrin; Bucksteeg, Michael; Weber, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    With the sharp increase in redispatch measures seen during recent years, the importance of an efficient congestion management has increased, particularly in Germany. As the current market design, with a single bidding area, ignores the physical constraints of the transmission grid, there is an ongoing discussion about introducing price zones. Against this background, we develop a three-stage approach to model redispatch and market splitting for Germany while considering interactions with interconnected countries. We identify an increasing spatial imbalance between generation and load and delays in grid extension as being the main drivers for the increase of modeled redispatch volumes from 2012 to 2020. We show that market splitting reduces imminent congestion although results are sensitive to the zonal delimitation and corresponding net transfer capacities. The overall welfare effect is negligible, but price differences between the bidding areas investigated, i.e. one Northern and Southern price zone, result in considerable distributional effects. While consumers in Northern Germany would benefit – producer rents and in particular the value of wind energy would decrease – the opposite is true for Southern Germany. We conclude that market splitting constitutes a solution to reduce redispatch measures as long as transmission grid expansion is further delayed. - Highlights: • A three-stage approach to model redispatch and zonal pricing is proposed. • Energy transition will lead to a tripling of congestion in Germany until 2020. • Market splitting in Germany substantially reduces redispatch measures. • Overall welfare gain is negligible, but considerable distributional effects occur. • The beneficial effects of market splitting depend strongly on its design.

  9. What Causes Tsunamis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael

    2005-01-01

    On December 26, 2004, a disastrous tsunami struck many parts of South Asia. The scope of this disaster has resulted in an outpouring of aid throughout the world and brought attention to the science of tsunamis. "Tsunami" means "harbor wave" in Japanese, and the Japanese have a long history of tsunamis. The word…

  10. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-04-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  11. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-01-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography

  12. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Cipta, Athanasius [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Australian National University, Canberra (Australia)

    2015-04-24

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  13. Impact of a Cosmic Body into Earth's Ocean and the Generation of Large Tsunami Waves: Insight from Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wünnemann, K.; Collins, G. S.; Weiss, R.

    2010-12-01

    The strike of a cosmic body into a marine environment differs in several respects from impact on land. Oceans cover approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, implying not only that oceanic impact is a very likely scenario for future impacts but also that most impacts in Earth's history must have happened in marine environments. Therefore, the study of oceanic impact is imperative in two respects: (1) to quantify the hazard posed by future oceanic impacts, including the potential threat of large impact-generated tsunami-like waves, and (2) to reconstruct Earth's impact record by accounting for the large number of potentially undiscovered crater structures in the ocean crust. Reconstruction of the impact record is of crucial importance both for assessing the frequency of collision events in the past and for better predicting the probability of future impact. We summarize the advances in the study of oceanic impact over the last decades and focus in particular on how numerical models have improved our understanding of cratering in the oceanic environment and the generation of waves by impact. We focus on insight gleaned from numerical modeling studies into the deceleration of the projectile by the water, cratering of the ocean floor, the late stage modification of the crater due to gravitational collapse, and water resurge. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and propagation of large tsunami-like waves as a result of a strike of a cosmic body in marine environments.

  14. TSUNAMI LOADING ON BUILDINGS WITH OPENINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lukkunaprasit

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Reinforced concrete (RC buildings with openings in the masonry infill panels have shown superior performance to those without openings in the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Understanding the effect of openings and the resulting tsunami force is essential for an economical and safe design of vertical evacuation shelters against tsunamis. One-to-one hundred scale building models with square shape in plan were tested in a 40 m long hydraulic flume with 1 m x 1 m cross section. A mild slope of 0.5 degree representing the beach condition at Phuket, Thailand was simulated in the hydraulic laboratory. The model dimensions were 150 mm x 150 mm x 150 mm. Two opening configurations of the front and back walls were investigated, viz., 25% and 50% openings. Pressure sensors were placed on the faces of the model to measure the pressure distribution. A high frequency load cell was mounted at the base of the model to record the tsunami forces. A bi-linear pressure profile is proposed for determining the maximum tsunami force acting on solid square buildings. The influence of openings on the peak pressures on the front face of the model is found to be practically insignificant. For 25% and 50% opening models, the tsunami forces reduce by about 15% and 30% from the model without openings, respectively. The reduction in the tsunami force clearly demonstrates the benefit of openings in reducing the effect of tsunami on such buildings.

  15. Modeling the lowest-cost splitting of a herd of cows by optimizing a cost function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajamannage, Kelum; Bollt, Erik M.; Porter, Mason A.; Dawkins, Marian S.

    2017-06-01

    Animals live in groups to defend against predation and to obtain food. However, for some animals—especially ones that spend long periods of time feeding—there are costs if a group chooses to move on before their nutritional needs are satisfied. If the conflict between feeding and keeping up with a group becomes too large, it may be advantageous for some groups of animals to split into subgroups with similar nutritional needs. We model the costs and benefits of splitting in a herd of cows using a cost function that quantifies individual variation in hunger, desire to lie down, and predation risk. We model the costs associated with hunger and lying desire as the standard deviations of individuals within a group, and we model predation risk as an inverse exponential function of the group size. We minimize the cost function over all plausible groups that can arise from a given herd and study the dynamics of group splitting. We examine how the cow dynamics and cost function depend on the parameters in the model and consider two biologically-motivated examples: (1) group switching and group fission in a herd of relatively homogeneous cows, and (2) a herd with an equal number of adult males (larger animals) and adult females (smaller animals).

  16. Applying the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation model to the March 2011 north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo; Yap, Su Fei; Park, Donghyun

    2014-07-01

    Natural hazards have a potentially large impact on economic growth, but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to demonstrate a model--the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model--that can be used to evaluate the impact of natural hazards on gross national product growth. The model is based on five basic indicators-natural hazards growth rates (αi), the national natural hazards vulnerability rate (ΩT), the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π), the economic desgrowth rate (i.e. shrinkage of the economy) (δ), and the NHV surface. In addition, we apply the NDVE model to the north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  17. Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

  18. An Improved Split-Step Wavelet Transform Method for Anomalous Radio Wave Propagation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Iqbal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Anomalous tropospheric propagation caused by ducting phenomenon is a major problem in wireless communication. Thus, it is important to study the behavior of radio wave propagation in tropospheric ducts. The Parabolic Wave Equation (PWE method is considered most reliable to model anomalous radio wave propagation. In this work, an improved Split Step Wavelet transform Method (SSWM is presented to solve PWE for the modeling of tropospheric propagation over finite and infinite conductive surfaces. A large number of numerical experiments are carried out to validate the performance of the proposed algorithm. Developed algorithm is compared with previously published techniques; Wavelet Galerkin Method (WGM and Split-Step Fourier transform Method (SSFM. A very good agreement is found between SSWM and published techniques. It is also observed that the proposed algorithm is about 18 times faster than WGM and provide more details of propagation effects as compared to SSFM.

  19. About one counterexample of applying method of splitting in modeling of plating processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovjev, D. S.; Solovjeva, I. A.; Litovka, Yu V.; Korobova, I. L.

    2018-05-01

    The paper presents the main factors that affect the uniformity of the thickness distribution of plating on the surface of the product. The experimental search for the optimal values of these factors is expensive and time-consuming. The problem of adequate simulation of coating processes is very relevant. The finite-difference approximation using seven-point and five-point templates in combination with the splitting method is considered as solution methods for the equations of the model. To study the correctness of the solution of equations of the mathematical model by these methods, the experiments were conducted on plating with a flat anode and cathode, which relative position was not changed in the bath. The studies have shown that the solution using the splitting method was up to 1.5 times faster, but it did not give adequate results due to the geometric features of the task under the given boundary conditions.

  20. A splitting technique for analytical modelling of two-phase multicomponent flow in porous media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pires, A.P.; Bedrikovetsky, P.G.; Shapiro, Alexander

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we discuss one-dimensional models for two-phase Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) floods (oil displacement by gases, polymers, carbonized water, hot water, etc.). The main result presented here is the splitting of the EOR mathematical model into thermodynamical and hydrodynamical parts...... formation water for chemical flooding can be calculated from the reduced auxiliary system. Reduction of the number of equations allows the generation of new analytical models for EOR. The analytical model for displacement of oil by a polymer slug with water drive is presented....

  1. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2018-04-01

    Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  2. Evaluation of Refuge Life Risk using Geographical and Social Grid-Models with Satellite-Based House Ratio and Flood Depth by Tsunami Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.; Hosoyamada, T.

    2017-12-01

    The authors have developed social and geographical models for evaluating and applying life risk to the Kamakura coast near the south-western part of the metropolitan areas of Tokyo. The coastline close to the seismic center of the South Kanto earthquake is in the riskiest belt in the metropolitan area with a high possibility of house collapse and tsunami run-up. Kamakura is an important historical city, visited by many tourists who are not familiar with seismic dangers. There is a high probability of loss of human life during an evacuation of the city during tsunami waves. To evaluate the distribution of life risk characteristics in the area, models for citizens and sightseers are developed that includes social data such as population density, wooden-house ratio, and geographical evacuation distance and tsunami-flooding depth. The population of Kamakura City is 174,050 and the risk of tsunami evacuation is high in the area from the southern part of Kamakura Station to Zaimokuza block, where the population is approximately 15,310 people. There are about 26,000 tourists visiting this area on weekdays and about 100,000 sightseers visiting the area on Saturdays and Sundays. On weekdays the population per mesh will increase by half of the 2,000 inhabitants. On Saturdays and Sundays the population density will be 4 thousand who will double those of the inhabitants. A disaster prevention hill is proposed as a tsunami countermeasure on the coast of Kamakura City. The hill is covered by pine forest with a high-standard road, evacuation center, and sightseeing parking lots embedded in the hilly bank. In normal times, tourists and citizens use this area as a seaside pine park. Long concrete box structures strengthen the hill inside the mound, which has two levels, the lower equipped with high-standard-width roads on the ground level. The parking areas will resolve daily traffic congestion issues along the Kamakura main streets. The evaluation of over-flooding tsunamis and

  3. A split-path schema-based RFID data storage model in supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Hua; Wu, Quanyuan; Lin, Yisong; Zhang, Jianfeng

    2013-05-03

    In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products . Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance.

  4. Neutrino masses via the Zee mechanism in the 5D split fermion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, We-Fu; Chen, I-Ting; Liou, Siao-Cing

    2011-01-01

    We study the original version of the Zee model, where both of the SU(2) L Higgs doublets are allowed to couple to the leptons, in the framework of the split fermion model in M 4 xS 1 /Z 2 space-time. The neutrino masses are generated through 1-loop diagrams without introducing the right-handed neutrinos. By assuming an order one anarchical complex 5D Yukawa couplings, all the effective 4D Yukawa couplings are determined by the wave function overlap between the split fermions and the bulk scalars in the fifth dimension. The predictability of the Yukawa couplings is in sharp contrast to the original Zee model in 4D where the Yukawa couplings are unknown free parameters. This setup exhibits a geometrical alternative to the lepton flavor symmetry. By giving four explicit sets of the split fermion locations, we demonstrate that it is possible to simultaneously fit the lepton masses and neutrino oscillation data by just a handful free parameters without much fine tuning. Moreover, we are able to make definite predictions for the mixing angle θ 13 , the absolute neutrino masses, and the lepton flavor violation processes for each configuration.

  5. A Split-Path Schema-Based RFID Data Storage Model in Supply Chain Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfeng Zhang

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products . Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance.

  6. National Geophysical Data Center Tsunami Data Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Brocko, R.

    2008-12-01

    NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology long-term tsunami data archive provides data and derived products essential for tsunami hazard assessment, forecast and warning, inundation modeling, preparedness, mitigation, education, and research. As a result of NOAA's efforts to strengthen its tsunami activities, the long-term tsunami data archive has grown from less than 5 gigabyte in 2004 to more than 2 terabytes in 2008. The types of data archived for tsunami research and operation activities have also expanded in fulfillment of the P.L. 109-424. The archive now consists of: global historical tsunami, significant earthquake and significant volcanic eruptions database; global tsunami deposits and proxies database; reference database; damage photos; coastal water-level data (i.e. digital tide gauge data and marigrams on microfiche); bottom pressure recorder (BPR) data as collected by Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys. The tsunami data archive comes from a wide variety of data providers and sources. These include the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, NOAA National Data Buoy Center, NOAA National Ocean Service, IOC/NOAA International Tsunami Information Center, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, tsunami catalogs, reconnaissance reports, journal articles, newspaper articles, internet web pages, and email. NGDC has been active in the management of some of these data for more than 50 years while other data management efforts are more recent. These data are openly available, either directly on-line or by contacting NGDC. All of the NGDC tsunami and related databases are stored in a relational database management system. These data are accessible over the Web as tables, reports, and interactive maps. The maps provide integrated web-based GIS access to individual GIS layers including tsunami sources, tsunami effects, significant earthquakes

  7. Cost calculation model concerning small-scale production of chips and split firewood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryynaenen, S.; Naett, H.; Valkonen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The TTS-Institute's Forestry Department has developed a computer-based cost calculation model for the production of wood chips and split firewood. This development work was carried out in conjunction with the nation-wide BIOENERGY -research programme. The said calculation model eases and speeds up the calculation of unit costs and resource needs in harvesting systems for wood chips and split firewood. The model also enables the user to find out how changes in the productivity and costs bases of different harvesting chains influences the unit costs of the system as a whole. The undertaking was composed of the following parts: clarification and modification of productivity bases for application in the model as mathematical models, clarification of machine and device costs bases, designing of the structure and functions of the calculation model, construction and testing of the model's 0-version, model calculations concerning typical chains, review of calculation bases, and charting of development needs focusing on the model. The calculation model was developed to serve research needs, but with further development it could be useful as a tool in forestry and agricultural extension work, related schools and colleges, and in the hands of firewood producers. (author)

  8. Slip reactivation model for the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake: Dynamic rupture, sea floor displacements and tsunami simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvez, P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Rahnema, K.; Bader, M.

    2014-12-01

    up-lift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge up-lift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model using sam(oa)2 (O. Meister et al., 2012), a state-of-the-art Finite-Volume framework to simulate the resulting tsunami waves.

  9. Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2005-01-01

    1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

  10. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2017-08-01

    Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  11. Embryo splitting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Illmensee

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Mammalian embryo splitting has successfully been established in farm animals. Embryo splitting is safely and efficiently used for assisted reproduction in several livestock species. In the mouse, efficient embryo splitting as well as single blastomere cloning have been developed in this animal system. In nonhuman primates embryo splitting has resulted in several pregnancies. Human embryo splitting has been reported recently. Microsurgical embryo splitting under Institutional Review Board approval has been carried out to determine its efficiency for blastocyst development. Embryo splitting at the 6–8 cell stage provided a much higher developmental efficiency compared to splitting at the 2–5 cell stage. Embryo splitting may be advantageous for providing additional embryos to be cryopreserved and for patients with low response to hormonal stimulation in assisted reproduction programs. Social and ethical issues concerning embryo splitting are included regarding ethics committee guidelines. Prognostic perspectives are presented for human embryo splitting in reproductive medicine.

  12. Effect of earthquake and tsunami. Ground motion and tsunami observed at nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hijikata, Katsuichirou

    2012-01-01

    Fukushima Daiichi and Daini Nuclear Power Stations (NPSs) were struck by the earthquake off the pacific coast in the Tohoku District, which occurred at 14:46 on March 11, 2011. Afterwards, tsunamis struck the Tohoku District. In terms of the earthquake observed at the Fukushima NPSs, the acceleration response spectra of the earthquake movement observed on the basic board of reactor buildings exceeded the acceleration response spectra of the response acceleration to the standard seismic ground motion Ss for partial periodic bands at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS. As for the Fukushima Daini NPS, the acceleration response spectra of the earthquake movement observed on the basic board of the reactor buildings was below the acceleration response spectra of the response acceleration to the standard seismic ground motion Ss. Areas inundated by Tsunami at each NPS were investigated and tsunami inversion analysis was made to build tsunami source model to reproduce tide record, tsunami height, crustal movement and inundated area, based on tsunami observation records in the wide areas from Hokkaido to Chiba prefectures. Tsunami heights of Fukushima Daiichi and Daini NPSs were recalculated as O.P. +13m and +9m respectively and tsunami peak height difference was attributed to the extent of superposition of tsunami waves of tsunami earthquake type of wave source in the area along interplane trench off the coast in the Fukushima prefecture and interplane earthquake type of wave source in rather deep interplate area off the coast in the Miyagi prefecture. (T. Tanaka)

  13. Modeling vehicle operating speed on urban roads in Montreal: a panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluru, Naveen; Chakour, Vincent; Chamberlain, Morgan; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

    2013-10-01

    Vehicle operating speed measured on roadways is a critical component for a host of analysis in the transportation field including transportation safety, traffic flow modeling, roadway geometric design, vehicle emissions modeling, and road user route decisions. The current research effort contributes to the literature on examining vehicle speed on urban roads methodologically and substantively. In terms of methodology, we formulate a new econometric model framework for examining speed profiles. The proposed model is an ordered response formulation of a fractional split model. The ordered nature of the speed variable allows us to propose an ordered variant of the fractional split model in the literature. The proposed formulation allows us to model the proportion of vehicles traveling in each speed interval for the entire segment of roadway. We extend the model to allow the influence of exogenous variables to vary across the population. Further, we develop a panel mixed version of the fractional split model to account for the influence of site-specific unobserved effects. The paper contributes substantively by estimating the proposed model using a unique dataset from Montreal consisting of weekly speed data (collected in hourly intervals) for about 50 local roads and 70 arterial roads. We estimate separate models for local roads and arterial roads. The model estimation exercise considers a whole host of variables including geometric design attributes, roadway attributes, traffic characteristics and environmental factors. The model results highlight the role of various street characteristics including number of lanes, presence of parking, presence of sidewalks, vertical grade, and bicycle route on vehicle speed proportions. The results also highlight the presence of site-specific unobserved effects influencing the speed distribution. The parameters from the modeling exercise are validated using a hold-out sample not considered for model estimation. The results indicate

  14. A Multiscale Time-Splitting Discrete Fracture Model of Nanoparticles Transport in Fractured Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed F.; Kou, Jisheng; Sun, Shuyu

    2017-01-01

    Recently, applications of nanoparticles have been considered in many branches of petroleum engineering, especially, enhanced oil recovery. The current paper is devoted to investigate the problem of nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media, numerically. We employed the discrete-fracture model (DFM) to represent the flow and transport in the fractured formations. The system of the governing equations consists of the mass conservation law, Darcy's law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat. The variation of porosity and permeability due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores is also considered. We employ the multiscale time-splitting strategy to control different time-step sizes for different physics, such as pressure and concentration. The cell-centered finite difference (CCFD) method is used for the spatial discretization. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multiscale time splitting approach.

  15. A Multiscale Time-Splitting Discrete Fracture Model of Nanoparticles Transport in Fractured Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed F.

    2017-06-06

    Recently, applications of nanoparticles have been considered in many branches of petroleum engineering, especially, enhanced oil recovery. The current paper is devoted to investigate the problem of nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media, numerically. We employed the discrete-fracture model (DFM) to represent the flow and transport in the fractured formations. The system of the governing equations consists of the mass conservation law, Darcy\\'s law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat. The variation of porosity and permeability due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores is also considered. We employ the multiscale time-splitting strategy to control different time-step sizes for different physics, such as pressure and concentration. The cell-centered finite difference (CCFD) method is used for the spatial discretization. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multiscale time splitting approach.

  16. Vacuum Rabi Splitting and Dynamics of the Jaynes—Cummings Model for Arbitrary Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yu-Yu; Chen Qing-Hu; Zhu Shi-Yao

    2013-01-01

    The effects of counter-rotating terms (CRTs) on Rabi splitting and the dynamic evolution of atomic population in the Jaynes—Cummings model are studied with a coherent-state approach. When the coupling strength increases, the Rabi splitting becomes of multi-Rabi frequencies for the initial state of an excited atom in a vacuum field, and the collapses and revivals gradually disappear, and then reappear with quite good periodicity. Without the rotating-wave approximation (RWA), the initial excited state contains many eigenstates rather than two eigenstates under the RWA, which results in the multi-peak emission spectrum. An analytical approximate solution for the strong coupling regime is obtained, which gives a new oscillation frequency and explains the recovery of collapses and revivals due to the equal energy spacing

  17. Estimation of the second heart sound split using windowed sinusoidal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sæderup, Rasmus Gundorf; Hoang, Poul; Winther, Simon

    2018-01-01

    to the potential overlap between A2 and P2. In this paper, a model-based approach is proposed where both A2 and P2 are modeled as windowed sinusoids with their sum forming the S2 signal. Estimation of the model parameters and the S2 split form a non-convex optimization problem, where a local minimum is obtained...... using a sequential optimization procedure. First, the window parameters are found as the solution to a regularized least squares problem. Then, the frequencies and phases of the sinusoids are found by locating the maximal peaks of the heart signals’ frequency magnitudes, and using the corresponding...

  18. MIP Models and Hybrid Algorithms for Simultaneous Job Splitting and Scheduling on Unrelated Parallel Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozmutlu, H. Cenk

    2014-01-01

    We developed mixed integer programming (MIP) models and hybrid genetic-local search algorithms for the scheduling problem of unrelated parallel machines with job sequence and machine-dependent setup times and with job splitting property. The first contribution of this paper is to introduce novel algorithms which make splitting and scheduling simultaneously with variable number of subjobs. We proposed simple chromosome structure which is constituted by random key numbers in hybrid genetic-local search algorithm (GAspLA). Random key numbers are used frequently in genetic algorithms, but it creates additional difficulty when hybrid factors in local search are implemented. We developed algorithms that satisfy the adaptation of results of local search into the genetic algorithms with minimum relocation operation of genes' random key numbers. This is the second contribution of the paper. The third contribution of this paper is three developed new MIP models which are making splitting and scheduling simultaneously. The fourth contribution of this paper is implementation of the GAspLAMIP. This implementation let us verify the optimality of GAspLA for the studied combinations. The proposed methods are tested on a set of problems taken from the literature and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. PMID:24977204

  19. MIP models and hybrid algorithms for simultaneous job splitting and scheduling on unrelated parallel machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eroglu, Duygu Yilmaz; Ozmutlu, H Cenk

    2014-01-01

    We developed mixed integer programming (MIP) models and hybrid genetic-local search algorithms for the scheduling problem of unrelated parallel machines with job sequence and machine-dependent setup times and with job splitting property. The first contribution of this paper is to introduce novel algorithms which make splitting and scheduling simultaneously with variable number of subjobs. We proposed simple chromosome structure which is constituted by random key numbers in hybrid genetic-local search algorithm (GAspLA). Random key numbers are used frequently in genetic algorithms, but it creates additional difficulty when hybrid factors in local search are implemented. We developed algorithms that satisfy the adaptation of results of local search into the genetic algorithms with minimum relocation operation of genes' random key numbers. This is the second contribution of the paper. The third contribution of this paper is three developed new MIP models which are making splitting and scheduling simultaneously. The fourth contribution of this paper is implementation of the GAspLAMIP. This implementation let us verify the optimality of GAspLA for the studied combinations. The proposed methods are tested on a set of problems taken from the literature and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

  20. A control-oriented simulation model of a power-split hybrid electric vehicle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cipek, Mihael; Pavković, Danijel; Petrić, Joško

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A simulation model of a two mode power-split hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is proposed. ► Modeling the energy losses in the HEV transmission components are presented. ► The control optimization model implementation aspects are discussed. -- Abstract: A simulation model of a two mode power-split hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is proposed in this paper for the purpose of HEV dynamics analysis and control system design. The bond graph methodology is used to model dominant dynamic effects of the mechanical part of the HEV transmission. Simple quasi-static battery model, the environment model, the tire and the power losses model of a vehicle are included, as well. A low-level electric generator speed control loop is designed, which includes a PI controller tuned according to the symmetrical optimum tuning procedure. Finally, off-line optimization by conjugate gradient-based BPTT-like optimal control algorithm, which is based on the presented mathematical model, is also given in the paper.

  1. Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2017-04-01

    After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami

  2. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  3. Real-time correction of tsunami site effect by frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsushima, H.

    2017-12-01

    For tsunami early warning, I developed frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor and used it to design a recursive digital filter that can be applicable for real-time correction of tsunami site response. In this study, I assumed that a tsunami waveform at an observing point could be modeled by convolution of source, path and site effects in time domain. Under this assumption, spectral ratio between offshore and the nearby coast can be regarded as site response (i.e. frequency-dependent amplification factor). If the amplification factor can be prepared before tsunamigenic earthquakes, its temporal convolution to offshore tsunami waveform provides tsunami prediction at coast in real time. In this study, tsunami waveforms calculated by tsunami numerical simulations were used to develop frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor. Firstly, I performed numerical tsunami simulations based on nonlinear shallow-water theory from many tsuanmigenic earthquake scenarios by varying the seismic magnitudes and locations. The resultant tsunami waveforms at offshore and the nearby coastal observing points were then used in spectral-ratio analysis. An average of the resulted spectral ratios from the tsunamigenic-earthquake scenarios is regarded as frequency-dependent amplification factor. Finally, the estimated amplification factor is used in design of a recursive digital filter that can be applicable in time domain. The above procedure is applied to Miyako bay at the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. The averaged tsunami-height spectral ratio (i.e. amplification factor) between the location at the center of the bay and the outside show a peak at wave-period of 20 min. A recursive digital filter based on the estimated amplification factor shows good performance in real-time correction of tsunami-height amplification due to the site effect. This study is supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI grant 15K16309.

  4. Tsunami Forecast for Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renteria, W.

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this study is to present a model for the short-term and long-term tsunami forecast for Galapagos Islands. For both cases the ComMIT/MOST(Titov,et al 2011) numerical model and methodology have been used. The results for the short-term model has been compared with the data from Lynett et al, 2011 surveyed from the impacts of the March/11 in the Galapagos Islands. For the case of long-term forecast, several scenarios have run along the Pacific, an extreme flooding map is obtained, the method is considered suitable for places with poor or without tsunami impact information, but under tsunami risk geographic location.

  5. Significant Tsunami Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Furtney, M.; McLean, S. J.; Sweeney, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis have inflicted death and destruction on the coastlines of the world throughout history. The occurrence of tsunamis and the resulting effects have been collected and studied as far back as the second millennium B.C. The knowledge gained from cataloging and examining these events has led to significant changes in our understanding of tsunamis, tsunami sources, and methods to mitigate the effects of tsunamis. The most significant, not surprisingly, are often the most devastating, such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami. The goal of this poster is to give a brief overview of the occurrence of tsunamis and then focus specifically on several significant tsunamis. There are various criteria to determine the most significant tsunamis: the number of deaths, amount of damage, maximum runup height, had a major impact on tsunami science or policy, etc. As a result, descriptions will include some of the most costly (2011 Tohoku, Japan), the most deadly (2004 Sumatra, 1883 Krakatau), and the highest runup ever observed (1958 Lituya Bay, Alaska). The discovery of the Cascadia subduction zone as the source of the 1700 Japanese "Orphan" tsunami and a future tsunami threat to the U.S. northwest coast, contributed to the decision to form the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 marked the beginning of the modern era of seismology. Knowledge gained from the 1964 Alaska earthquake and tsunami helped confirm the theory of plate tectonics. The 1946 Alaska, 1952 Kuril Islands, 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and the 2004 Banda Aceh, tsunamis all resulted in warning centers or systems being established.The data descriptions on this poster were extracted from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global historical tsunami database. Additional information about these tsunamis, as well as water level data can be found by accessing the NGDC website www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

  6. Source characterization and tsunami modeling of submarine landslides along the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment, southern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaytor, Jason D.; Geist, Eric L.; Paull, Charles K.; Caress, David W; Gwiazda, Roberto; Urrutia Fucugauchi, Jaime; Rebolledo Vieyra, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Submarine landslides occurring along the margins of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) represent a low-likelihood, but potentially damaging source of tsunamis. New multibeam bathymetry coverage reveals that mass wasting is pervasive along the Yucatán Shelf edge with several large composite landslides possibly removing as much as 70 km3 of the Cenozoic sedimentary section in a single event. Using GIS-based analysis, the dimensions of six landslides from the central and northern sections of the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment were determined and used as input for preliminary tsunami generation and propagation models. Tsunami modeling is performed to compare the propagation characteristics and distribution of maximum amplitudes throughout the GOM among the different landslide scenarios. Various factors such as landslide geometry, location along the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment, and refraction during propagation result in significant variations in the affected part of the Mexican and US Gulf Coasts. In all cases, however, tsunami amplitudes are greatest along the northern Yucatán Peninsula.

  7. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  8. Seismic and tsunami safety margin assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear Regulation Authority is going to establish new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines to increase the safety of NPPs. The main purpose of this research is testing structures/components important to safety and tsunami resistant structures/components, and evaluating the capacity of them against earthquake and tsunami. Those capacity data will be utilized for the seismic and tsunami back-fit review based on the new seismic and tsunami safety guidelines. The summary of the program in 2012 is as follows. 1. Component seismic capacity test and quantitative seismic capacity evaluation. PWR emergency diesel generator partial-model seismic capacity tests have been conducted and quantitative seismic capacities have been evaluated. 2. Seismic capacity evaluation of switching-station electric equipment. Existing seismic test data investigation, specification survey and seismic response analyses have been conducted. 3. Tsunami capacity evaluation of anti-inundation measure facilities. Tsunami pressure test have been conducted utilizing a small breakwater model and evaluated basic characteristics of tsunami pressure against seawall structure. (author)

  9. Effects of Harbor Modification on Crescent City, California's Tsunami Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dengler, Lori; Uslu, Burak

    2011-06-01

    More damaging tsunamis have impacted Crescent City, California in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the USA. Crescent City's harbor has undergone significant modification since the early 20th century, including construction of several breakwaters, dredging, and a 200 × 300 m2 small boat basin. In 2006, a M w 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. Crescent City recorded the highest amplitudes of any tide gauge in the Pacific and was the only location to experience structural damage. Strong currents damaged docks and boats within the small boat basin, causing more than US 20 million in damage and replacement costs. We examine how modifications to Crescent City's harbor may have affected its vulnerability to moderate tsunamis such as the 2006 event. A bathymetric grid of the basin was constructed based on US Army Corps of Engineers soundings in 1964 and 1965 before the construction of the small boat basin. The method of splitting tsunamis was used to estimate tsunami water heights and current velocities at several locations in the harbor using both the 1964-1965 grid and the 2006 bathymetric grid for the 2006 Kuril event and a similar-sized source along the Sanriku coast of Japan. Model velocity outputs are compared for the two different bathymetries at the tide gauge location and at six additional computational sites in the harbor. The largest difference between the two grids is at the small boat basin entrance, where the 2006 bathymetry produces currents over three times the strength of the currents produced by the 1965 bathymetry. Peak currents from a Sanriku event are comparable to those produced by the 2006 event, and within the boat basin may have been higher. The modifications of the harbor, and in particular the addition of the small boat basin, appear to have contributed to the high current velocities and resulting damage in 2006 and help to explain why the 1933 M w 8.4-8.7 Sanriku tsunami

  10. Role of Compressibility on Tsunami Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdolali, Ali; Kirby, James T.

    2017-12-01

    In the present paper, we aim to reduce the discrepancies between tsunami arrival times evaluated from tsunami models and real measurements considering the role of ocean compressibility. We perform qualitative studies to reveal the phase speed reduction rate via a modified version of the Mild Slope Equation for Weakly Compressible fluid (MSEWC) proposed by Sammarco et al. (2013). The model is validated against a 3-D computational model. Physical properties of surface gravity waves are studied and compared with those for waves evaluated from an incompressible flow solver over realistic geometry for 2011 Tohoku-oki event, revealing reduction in phase speed.Plain Language SummarySubmarine earthquakes and submarine mass failures (SMFs), can generate long gravitational waves (or tsunamis) that propagate at the free surface. Tsunami waves can travel long distances and are known for their dramatic effects on coastal areas. Nowadays, numerical models are used to reconstruct the tsunamigenic events for many scientific and socioeconomic aspects i.e. Tsunami Early Warning Systems, inundation mapping, risk and hazard analysis, etc. A number of typically neglected parameters in these models cause discrepancies between model outputs and observations. Most of the tsunami models predict tsunami arrival times at distant stations slightly early in comparison to observations. In this study, we show how ocean compressibility would affect the tsunami wave propagation speed. In this framework, an efficient two-dimensional model equation for the weakly compressible ocean has been developed, validated and tested for simplified and real cases against three dimensional and incompressible solvers. Taking the effect of compressibility, the phase speed of surface gravity waves is reduced compared to that of an incompressible fluid. Then, we used the model for the case of devastating Tohoku-Oki 2011 tsunami event, improving the model accuracy. This study sheds light for future model development

  11. Illuminance-based slat angle selection model for automated control of split blinds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Jia; Olbina, Svetlana [Rinker School of Building Construction, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-5703 (United States)

    2011-03-15

    Venetian blinds play an important role in controlling daylight in buildings. Automated blinds overcome some limitations of manual blinds; however, the existing automated systems mainly control the direct solar radiation and glare and cannot be used for controlling innovative blind systems such as split blinds. This research developed an Illuminance-based Slat Angle Selection (ISAS) model that predicts the optimum slat angles of split blinds to achieve the designed indoor illuminance. The model was constructed based on a series of multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANNs). The illuminance values at the sensor points used to develop the ANNs were obtained by the software EnergyPlus trademark. The weather determinants (such as horizontal illuminance and sun angles) were used as the input variables for the ANNs. The illuminance level at a sensor point was the output variable for the ANNs. The ISAS model was validated by evaluating the errors in the calculation of the: 1) illuminance and 2) optimum slat angles. The validation results showed that the power of the ISAS model to predict illuminance was 94.7% while its power to calculate the optimum slat angles was 98.5%. For about 90% of time in the year, the illuminance percentage errors were less than 10%, and the percentage errors in calculating the optimum slat angles were less than 5%. This research offers a new approach for the automated control of split blinds and a guide for future research to utilize the adaptive nature of ANNs to develop a more practical and applicable blind control system. (author)

  12. Development of Real-time Tsunami Inundation Forecast Using Ocean Bottom Tsunami Networks along the Japan Trench

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Suzuki, W.; Hirata, K.; Nakamura, H.; Kunugi, T.; Kubo, T.; Maeda, T.

    2015-12-01

    In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, in which huge tsunami claimed a great deal of lives, the initial tsunami forecast based on hypocenter information estimated using seismic data on land were greatly underestimated. From this lesson, NIED is now constructing S-net (Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench) which consists of 150 ocean bottom observatories with seismometers and pressure gauges (tsunamimeters) linked by fiber optic cables. To take full advantage of S-net, we develop a new methodology of real-time tsunami inundation forecast using ocean bottom observation data and construct a prototype system that implements the developed forecasting method for the Pacific coast of Chiba prefecture (Sotobo area). We employ a database-based approach because inundation is a strongly non-linear phenomenon and its calculation costs are rather heavy. We prepare tsunami scenario bank in advance, by constructing the possible tsunami sources, and calculating the tsunami waveforms at S-net stations, coastal tsunami heights and tsunami inundation on land. To calculate the inundation for target Sotobo area, we construct the 10-m-mesh precise elevation model with coastal structures. Based on the sensitivities analyses, we construct the tsunami scenario bank that efficiently covers possible tsunami scenarios affecting the Sotobo area. A real-time forecast is carried out by selecting several possible scenarios which can well explain real-time tsunami data observed at S-net from tsunami scenario bank. An advantage of our method is that tsunami inundations are estimated directly from the actual tsunami data without any source information, which may have large estimation errors. In addition to the forecast system, we develop Web services, APIs, and smartphone applications and brush them up through social experiments to provide the real-time tsunami observation and forecast information in easy way to understand toward urging people to evacuate.

  13. A modulation model for mode splitting of magnetic perturbations in the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hole, M J; Appel, L C

    2009-01-01

    Recent observations of magnetic fluctuation activity in the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) reveal the presence of plasmas with bands of both low and high frequency magnetic fluctuations. Such plasmas exhibit a spectrum of low frequency modes with adjacent toroidal mode numbers, for which the measured frequency is near the Doppler shifted rotation frequency of the plasma. These are thought to be tearing modes. Also present are a spectrum of high frequency modes (e.g. Alfven, fishbone and/or ICE). The frequency and mode number of the tearing mode and its harmonics is identical to the frequency and mode number splitting of the high frequency MHD activity, strongly suggesting that the high frequency splitting is produced by modulation of the high and low frequency modes. We describe a strong modulation model, in which the nonlinear terms are fitted to produce the amplitude envelope profile of the tearing mode. A bispectral analysis proves that the low frequency modes are indeed in phase with the fundamental, while Fourier-SVD mode analysis confirms the mode numbers are toroidal harmonics. Employing this model, the sideband amplitude profile of the high frequency modes is predicted, and found to be in good agreement with experimental observations. Also, toroidal mode number splitting of the high frequency activity matches the mode number of the tearing mode. Weak evidence is found to indicate the Alfvenic sidebands are in phase with the Alfven eigenmode fundamental. The findings support predictions of a strong modulation model, and suggest a need to further develop nonlinear MHD theory to predict the amplitude of coupled sidebands, and so corroborate the observed nonlinear plasma response.

  14. Model-independent separation of poorly resolved hypperfine split spectra by a linear combination method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, D.L.; Dengler, J.; Ritter, G.

    1988-01-01

    A model-independent evaluation of the components of poorly resolved Moessbauer spectra based on a linear combination method is possible if there is a parameter as a function of which the shape of the individual components do not but their intensities do change and the dependence of the intensities on this parameter is known. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated on the example of low temperature magnetically split spectra of the high-T c superconductor YBa 2 (Cu 0.9 Fe 0 .1 ) 3 O 7-y . (author)

  15. Configuration splitting and gamma-decay transition rates in the two-group shell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isakov, V. I.

    2015-01-01

    Expressions for reduced gamma-decay transition rates were obtained on the basis of the twogroup configuration model for the case of transitions between particles belonging to identical groups of nucleons. In practical applications, the present treatment is the most appropriate for describing decays for odd–odd nuclei in the vicinity of magic nuclei or for nuclei where the corresponding subshells stand out in energy. Also, a simple approximation is applicable to describing configuration splitting in those cases. The present calculations were performed for nuclei whose mass numbers are close to A ∼ 90, including N = 51 odd—odd isotones

  16. The background-quantum split symmetry in two-dimensional σ-models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blasi, A.; Delduc, F.; Sorella, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    A generic, non-linear, background-quantum split is translated into a BRS symmetry. The renormalization of the resulting Slavnov-Taylor identity is analyzed in the class of two-dimensional σ-models with Wess-Zumino term which suggests the adoption of a regularization independent method. We discuss the cohomology of the linearized nilpotent operator derived from the Slavnov-Taylor identity. In particular, the cohomology class with zero Faddeev-Popov charge ensures the stability of the action, while the fact that the cohomology class with one unit of Faddeev-Popov charge is empty ensures the absence of anomalies. (orig.)

  17. Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Shinji

    2015-01-01

    Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami.

  18. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  19. Can undersea voltage measurements detect tsunamis?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Manoj, C.; Kuvshinov, A.; Neetu, S.; Harinarayana, T.

    the temporal variations of these electric fields? To answer these questions, we use a barotropic tsunami model and a state-of-the-art 3-D EM induction code to simulate the electric and magnetic fields generated by the Indian Ocean Tsunami. We will first...). The 4 C. MANOJ et al.: TSUNAMI GENERATED ELECTRIC FIELDS solution allows for simulating electromagnetic (EM) field in a spherical models of the Earth with three-dimensional (3-D) distribution of electrical conductivity. These models consist of a number...

  20. Modeling of a split type air conditioner with integrated water heater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Techarungpaisan, P.; Theerakulpisut, S.; Priprem, S.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a steady state simulation model to predict the performance of a small split type air conditioner with integrated water heater. The mathematical model consists of submodels of system components such as evaporator, condenser, compressor, capillary tube, receiver and water heater. These submodels were built based on fundamental principles of heat transfer, thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, empirical relationships and manufacturer's data as necessary. The model was coded into a simulation program and used to predict system parameters of interest such as hot water temperature, condenser exit air temperature, evaporator exit air temperature, mass flow rate of refrigerant, heat rejection in the condenser and cooling capacity of the system. The simulation results were compared with experimental data obtained from an experimental rig built for validating the mathematical model. It was found that the experimental and simulation results are in good agreement

  1. A mathematical model for order splitting in a multiple supplier single-item inventory system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abginehchi, Soheil; Farahani, Reza Zanjirani; Rezapour, Shabnam

    2013-01-01

    systems. The item acquisition lead times of suppliers are random variables. Backorder is allowed and shortage cost is charged based on not only per unit in shortage but also per time unit. Continuous review (s,Q) policy has been assumed. When the inventory level depletes to a reorder level, the total...... order is split among n suppliers. Since the suppliers have different characteristics, the quantity ordered to different suppliers may be different. The problem is to determine the reorder level and quantity ordered to each supplier so that the expected total cost per time unit, including ordering cost......, procurement cost, inventory holding cost, and shortage cost, is minimized. We also conduct extensive numerical experiments to show the advantages of our model compared with the models in the literature. According to our extensive experiments, the model developed in this paper is the best model...

  2. Tsunami Speed Variations in Density-stratified Compressible Global Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watada, S.

    2013-12-01

    Recent tsunami observations in the deep ocean have accumulated unequivocal evidence that tsunami traveltime delays compared with the linear long-wave tsunami simulations occur during tsunami propagation in the deep ocean. The delay is up to 2% of the tsunami traveltime. Watada et al. [2013] investigated the cause of the delay using the normal mode theory of tsunamis and attributed the delay to the compressibility of seawater, the elasticity of the solid earth, and the gravitational potential change associated with mass motion during the passage of tsunamis. Tsunami speed variations in the deep ocean caused by seawater density stratification is investigated using a newly developed propagator matrix method that is applicable to seawater with depth-variable sound speeds and density gradients. For a 4-km deep ocean, the total tsunami speed reduction is 0.45% compared with incompressible homogeneous seawater; two thirds of the reduction is due to elastic energy stored in the water and one third is due to water density stratification mainly by hydrostatic compression. Tsunami speeds are computed for global ocean density and sound speed profiles and characteristic structures are discussed. Tsunami speed reductions are proportional to ocean depth with small variations, except for in warm Mediterranean seas. The impacts of seawater compressibility and the elasticity effect of the solid earth on tsunami traveltime should be included for precise modeling of trans-oceanic tsunamis. Data locations where a vertical ocean profile deeper than 2500 m is available in World Ocean Atlas 2009. The dark gray area indicates the Pacific Ocean defined in WOA09. a) Tsunami speed variations. Red, gray and black bars represent global, Pacific, and Mediterranean Sea, respectively. b) Regression lines of the tsunami velocity reduction for all oceans. c)Vertical ocean profiles at grid points indicated by the stars in Figure 1.

  3. The First Real-Time Tsunami Animation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C.; Weinstein, S.; Ward, B.

    2014-12-01

    For the first time a U.S. tsunami warning center created and issued a tsunami forecast model animation while the tsunami was still crossing an ocean. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists had predicted they would have this ability (Becker et al., 2012) with their RIFT forecast model (Wang et al., 2009) by using rapidly-determined W-phase centroid-moment tensor earthquake focal mechanisms as tsunami sources in the RIFT model (Wang et al., 2012). PTWC then acquired its own YouTube channel in 2013 for its outreach efforts that showed animations of historic tsunamis (Becker et al., 2013), but could also be a platform for sharing future tsunami animations. The 8.2 Mw earthquake of 1 April 2014 prompted PTWC to issue official warnings for a dangerous tsunami in Chile, Peru and Ecuador. PTWC ended these warnings five hours later, then issued its new tsunami marine hazard product (i.e., no coastal evacuations) for the State of Hawaii. With the international warning canceled but with a domestic hazard still present PTWC generated a forecast model animation and uploaded it to its YouTube channel six hours before the arrival of the first waves in Hawaii. PTWC also gave copies of this animation to television reporters who in turn passed it on to their national broadcast networks. PTWC then created a version for NOAA's Science on a Sphere system so it could be shown on these exhibits as the tsunami was still crossing the Pacific Ocean. While it is difficult to determine how many people saw this animation since local, national, and international news networks showed it in their broadcasts, PTWC's YouTube channel provides some statistics. As of 1 August 2014 this animation has garnered more than 650,000 views. Previous animations, typically released during significant anniversaries, rarely get more than 10,000 views, and even then only when external websites share them. Clearly there is a high demand for a tsunami graphic that shows both the speed and the severity of a

  4. Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan

    2014-01-01

    Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

  5. Transient Tsunamis in Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couston, L.; Mei, C.; Alam, M.

    2013-12-01

    A large number of lakes are surrounded by steep and unstable mountains with slopes prone to failure. As a result, landslides are likely to occur and impact water sitting in closed reservoirs. These rare geological phenomena pose serious threats to dam reservoirs and nearshore facilities because they can generate unexpectedly large tsunami waves. In fact, the tallest wave experienced by contemporary humans occurred because of a landslide in the narrow bay of Lituya in 1958, and five years later, a deadly landslide tsunami overtopped Lake Vajont's dam, flooding and damaging villages along the lakefront and in the Piave valley. If unstable slopes and potential slides are detected ahead of time, inundation maps can be drawn to help people know the risks, and mitigate the destructive power of the ensuing waves. These maps give the maximum wave runup height along the lake's vertical and sloping boundaries, and can be obtained by numerical simulations. Keeping track of the moving shorelines along beaches is challenging in classical Eulerian formulations because the horizontal extent of the fluid domain can change over time. As a result, assuming a solid slide and nonbreaking waves, here we develop a nonlinear shallow-water model equation in the Lagrangian framework to address the problem of transient landslide-tsunamis. In this manner, the shorelines' three-dimensional motion is part of the solution. The model equation is hyperbolic and can be solved numerically by finite differences. Here, a 4th order Runge-Kutta method and a compact finite-difference scheme are implemented to integrate in time and spatially discretize the forced shallow-water equation in Lagrangian coordinates. The formulation is applied to different lake and slide geometries to better understand the effects of the lake's finite lengths and slide's forcing mechanism on the generated wavefield. Specifically, for a slide moving down a plane beach, we show that edge-waves trapped by the shoreline and free

  6. Neural Model for Left-Handed CPW Bandpass Filter Loaded Split Ring Resonator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Haiwen; Wang, Shuxin; Tan, Mingtao; Zhang, Qijun

    2010-02-01

    Compact left-handed coplanar waveguide (CPW) bandpass filter loaded split ring resonator (SRR) is presented in this paper. The proposed filter exhibits a quasi-elliptic function response and its circuit size occupies only 12 × 11.8 mm2 (≈0.21 λg × 0.20 λg). Also, a simple circuit model is given and the parametric study of this filter is discussed. Then, with the aid of NeuroModeler software, a five-layer feed-forward perceptron neural networks model is built up to optimize the proposed filter design fast and accurately. Finally, this newly left-handed CPW bandpass filter was fabricated and measured. A good agreement between simulations and measurement verifies the proposed left-handed filter and the validity of design methodology.

  7. Analytical modeling of split-gate junction-less transistor for a biosensor application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shradhya Singh

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the analytical modeling of split-gate Dielectric Modulated Junction Less Transistor (JLT for label free electrical detection of bio molecules. Some part of the channel region is opened for providing the binding sites for the bio molecules unlike conventional MOSFET which is enclosed with the gate electrode. Due to this open area, the surface potential of this region affected by the charged and neutral bio molecules immobilized to the open region of channel. Surface potential of the channel region obtained by solving two-Dimensional Poisson's equation by potential profile having parabolic nature through channel region using technique called conformal mapping. By deriving the surface potential model, derivation of threshold model can also be done. For the detection of bio molecule, variation in to the threshold voltage due to binding of bio molecule in the gate underlap region is the sensing metric.

  8. Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakar, Din Mohammad; Naeem, Ghazala; Usman, Abdullah; Hasan, Haider; Lohdi, Hira; Srinivasalu, Seshachalam; Andrade, Vanessa; Rajendran, C.P.; Naderi Beni, Abdolmajid; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Hoffmann, Goesta; Al Balushi, Noora; Gale, Nora; Kodijat, Ardito; Fritz, Hermann M.; Atwater, Brian F.

    2014-01-01

    Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

  9. Tsunami Source Identification on the 1867 Tsunami Event Based on the Impact Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, T. R.

    2014-12-01

    The 1867 Keelung tsunami event has drawn significant attention from people in Taiwan. Not only because the location was very close to the 3 nuclear power plants which are only about 20km away from the Taipei city but also because of the ambiguous on the tsunami sources. This event is unique in terms of many aspects. First, it was documented on many literatures with many languages and with similar descriptions. Second, the tsunami deposit was discovered recently. Based on the literatures, earthquake, 7-meter tsunami height, volcanic smoke, and oceanic smoke were observed. Previous studies concluded that this tsunami was generated by an earthquake with a magnitude around Mw7.0 along the Shanchiao Fault. However, numerical results showed that even a Mw 8.0 earthquake was not able to generate a 7-meter tsunami. Considering the steep bathymetry and intense volcanic activities along the Keelung coast, one reasonable hypothesis is that different types of tsunami sources were existed, such as the submarine landslide or volcanic eruption. In order to confirm this scenario, last year we proposed the Tsunami Reverse Tracing Method (TRTM) to find the possible locations of the tsunami sources. This method helped us ruling out the impossible far-field tsunami sources. However, the near-field sources are still remain unclear. This year, we further developed a new method named 'Impact Intensity Analysis' (IIA). In the IIA method, the study area is divided into a sequence of tsunami sources, and the numerical simulations of each source is conducted by COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) tsunami model. After that, the resulting wave height from each source to the study site is collected and plotted. This method successfully helped us to identify the impact factor from the near-field potential sources. The IIA result (Fig. 1) shows that the 1867 tsunami event was a multi-source event. A mild tsunami was trigged by a Mw7.0 earthquake, and then followed by the submarine

  10. A splitting method for the isentropic Baer-Nunziato two-phase flow model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coquel Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, we propose a fractional step method for computing approximate solutions of the isentropic Baer-Nunziato two-phase flow model. The scheme relies on an operator splitting method corresponding to a separate treatment of fast propagation phenomena due to the acoustic waves on the one hand and slow propagation phenomena due to the fluid motion on the other. The scheme is proved to preserve positive values of the statistical fractions and densities. We also provide two test-cases that assess the convergence of the method. Nous proposons ici une méthode à pas fractionnaires pour le calcul de solutions approchées pour la version isentropique du modèle diphasique de Baer-Nunziato. Le schéma s’appuie sur un splitting de l’opérateur temporel correspondant à la prise en compte différenciée des phéno-mènes de propagation rapide dus aux ondes acoustiques et des phénomènes de propagation lente dus aux ondes matérielles. On prouve que le schéma permet de préserver des valeurs positives pour les taux statistiques de présence des phases ainsi que pour les densités. Deux cas tests numériques permettent d’illustrer la convergence de la méthode.

  11. Elastic oscillations of water column in the 2003 Tokachi-oki tsunami source: in-situ measurements and 3-D numerical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Nosov

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available During the 2003 Tokachi-Oki tsunamigenic earthquake the real-time JAMSTEC observatory obtained records which provided a unique opportunity to have a look deep inside the tsunami source. Considering water column as a compressible medium we processed the bottom pressure records in order to estimate amplitude, duration and velocity of bottom displacement. Spectral analysis of the records revealed a clear manifestation of the low-frequency elastic oscillations of water column. We also presented 3-D finite-difference numerical model developed in the framework of linear potential theory of ideal compressible fluid to better understand dynamical processes in the tsunami source. The model reproduces position of the main spectral maximum rather correctly. However, due to neglecting of crust elasticity and to lack of exact knowledge of spatiotemporal laws of bottom motion, there is an essential difference between in-situ observed and computed spectra.

  12. Circuit model optimization of a nano split ring resonator dimer antenna operating in infrared spectral range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gneiding, N.; Zhuromskyy, O.; Peschel, U.; Shamonina, E.

    2014-01-01

    Metamaterials are comprised of metallic structures with a strong response to incident electromagnetic radiation, like, for example, split ring resonators. The interaction of resonator ensembles with electromagnetic waves can be simulated with finite difference or finite elements algorithms, however, above a certain ensemble size simulations become inadmissibly time or memory consuming. Alternatively a circuit description of metamaterials, a well developed modelling tool at radio and microwave frequencies, allows to significantly increase the simulated ensemble size. This approach can be extended to the IR spectral range with an appropriate set of circuit element parameters accounting for physical effects such as electron inertia and finite conductivity. The model is verified by comparing the coupling coefficients with the ones obtained from the full wave numerical simulations, and used to optimize the nano-antenna design with improved radiation characteristics.

  13. Core-level satellites and outer core-level multiplet splitting in Mn model compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, A. J.; Reynolds, John G.; Roos, Joseph W.

    2000-01-01

    We report a systematic study of the Mn 2p, 3s, and 3p core-level photoemission and satellite structures for Mn model compounds. Charge transfer from the ligand state to the 3d metal state is observed and is distinguished by prominent shake-up satellites. We also observe that the Mn 3s multiplet splitting becomes smaller as the Mn oxidation state increases, and that 3s-3d electron correlation reduces the branching ratio of the 7 S: 5 S states in the Mn 3s spectra. In addition, as the ligand electronegativity decreases, the spin-state purity is lost in the 3s spectra, as evidenced by peak broadening. Our results are best understood in terms of the configuration-interaction model including intrashell electron correlation, charge transfer, and final-state screening. (c) 2000 American Vacuum Society

  14. Split-Ring Springback Simulations with the Non-associated Flow Rule and Evolutionary Elastic-Plasticity Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Choi, H. J.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, M. G.

    2018-06-01

    Finite element simulations and experiments for the split-ring test were conducted to investigate the effect of anisotropic constitutive models on the predictive capability of sheet springback. As an alternative to the commonly employed associated flow rule, a non-associated flow rule for Hill1948 yield function was implemented in the simulations. Moreover, the evolution of anisotropy with plastic deformation was efficiently modeled by identifying equivalent plastic strain-dependent anisotropic coefficients. Comparative study with different yield surfaces and elasticity models showed that the split-ring springback could be best predicted when the anisotropy in both the R value and yield stress, their evolution and variable apparent elastic modulus were taken into account in the simulations. Detailed analyses based on deformation paths superimposed on the anisotropic yield functions predicted by different constitutive models were provided to understand the complex springback response in the split-ring test.

  15. A culture of tsunami preparedness and applying knowledge from recent tsunamis affecting California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    It is the mission of the California Tsunami Program to ensure public safety by protecting lives and property before, during, and after a potentially destructive or damaging tsunami. In order to achieve this goal, the state has sought first to use finite funding resources to identify and quantify the tsunami hazard using the best available scientific expertise, modeling, data, mapping, and methods at its disposal. Secondly, it has been vital to accurately inform the emergency response community of the nature of the threat by defining inundation zones prior to a tsunami event and leveraging technical expertise during ongoing tsunami alert notifications (specifically incoming wave heights, arrival times, and the dangers of strong currents). State scientists and emergency managers have been able to learn and apply both scientific and emergency response lessons from recent, distant-source tsunamis affecting coastal California (from Samoa in 2009, Chile in 2010, and Japan in 2011). Emergency managers must understand and plan in advance for specific actions and protocols for each alert notification level provided by the NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Finally the state program has provided education and outreach information via a multitude of delivery methods, activities, and end products while keeping the message simple, consistent, and focused. The goal is a culture of preparedness and understanding of what to do in the face of a tsunami by residents, visitors, and responsible government officials. We provide an update of results and findings made by the state program with support of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program through important collaboration with other U.S. States, Territories and agencies. In 2009 the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) completed tsunami inundation modeling and mapping for all low-lying, populated coastal areas of California to assist local jurisdictions on

  16. Applicability of numerical model for seabed topography changes by tsunami flow. Analysis of formulae for sediment transport and simulations in a rectangular harbor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuyama, Masafumi

    2009-01-01

    Characteristics of formulae for bed-load transport and pick-up rate in suspended transport are investigated in order to clarify the impact on seabed topography changes by tsunami flow. The impact by bed-load transport was depended on Froude number and water surface slope. Bed-load transport causes deposition under Fr 6/7 at face front of tsunami wave. Pick-up rate has more predominant influences for seabed topography changes than that of one brought by bed-load transport. 2-D Numerical simulations with formulae by Ikeno et.al were carried out to simulate topography changes around harbor by tsunami flow in the flume. The result indicated that the numerical model is more applicable than a numerical model with previous formulae for estimation of deposit and erosion by topography changes. It is for this reason that the formula of pick-up rate is adaptable for wide-range diameter of sand, from 0.08mm to 0.2mm. Upper limit of suspended sediment concentration is needed to set due to avoid overlarge concentration in the numerical model. Comparison between numerical results in a real scale with 1% and 5% upper limits clearly shows topography changes have a deep relevance with the upper limit value. The upper limit value is one of dominant factors for evaluating seabed topography changes by the 2-D Numerical simulations with the formulae by Ikeno et.al in a real scale. (author)

  17. Second international tsunami workshop on the technical aspects of tsunami warning systems, tsunami analysis, preparedness, observation and instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The Second Workshop on the Technical Aspects of Tsunami Warning Systems, Tsunami Analysis, Preparedness, Observation, and Instrumentation, sponsored and convened by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), was held on 1-2 August 1989, in the modern and attractive research town of Academgorodok, which is located 20 km south from downtown Novosibirsk, the capital of Siberia, USSR. The Program was arranged in eight major areas of interest covering the following: Opening and Introduction; Survey of Existing Tsunami Warning Centers - present status, results of work, plans for future development; Survey of some existing seismic data processing systems and future projects; Methods for fast evaluation of Tsunami potential and perspectives of their implementation; Tsunami data bases; Tsunami instrumentation and observations; Tsunami preparedness; and finally, a general discussion and adoption of recommendations. The Workshop presentations not only addressed the conceptual improvements that have been made, but focused on the inner workings of the Tsunami Warning System, as well, including computer applications, on-line processing and numerical modelling. Furthermore, presentations reported on progress has been made in the last few years on data telemetry, instrumentation and communications. Emphasis was placed on new concepts and their application into operational techniques that can result in improvements in data collection, rapid processing of the data, in analysis and prediction. A Summary Report on the Second International Tsunami Workshop, containing abstracted and annotated proceedings has been published as a separate report. The present Report is a Supplement to the Summary Report and contains the full text of the papers presented at this Workshop. Refs, figs and tabs

  18. Tsunami Induced Scour Around Monopile Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eltard-Larsen, Bjarke; Fuhrman, David R.; Baykal, Cüneyt

    2017-01-01

    A fully-coupled (hydrodynamic and morphologic) numerical model is presented, and utilized for the simulation of tsunami-induced scour around a monopile structure, representative of those commonly utilized as offshore wind turbine foundations at moderate depths i.e. for depths less than 30 m...... a steady current, where a generally excellent match with experimentally-based results is found. A methodology for maintaining and assessing hydrodynamic and morphologic similarity between field and (laboratory) model-scale tsunami events is then presented, combining diameter-based Froude number similarity...... with that based on the dimensionless wave boundary layer thickness-to-monopile diameter ratio. This methodology is utilized directly in the selection of governing tsunami wave parameters (i.e. velocity magnitude and period) used for subsequent simulation within the numerical model, with the tsunami-induced flow...

  19. Modeling of Tsunami Equations and Atmospheric Swirling Flows with a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) and Radial Basis Functions (RBF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, J.; Piret, C.; Zhang, N.; Kadlec, B. J.; Liu, Y.; Yuen, D. A.; Wright, G. B.; Sevre, E. O.

    2008-12-01

    The faster growth curves in the speed of GPUs relative to CPUs in recent years and its rapidly gained popularity has spawned a new area of development in computational technology. There is much potential in utilizing GPUs for solving evolutionary partial differential equations and producing the attendant visualization. We are concerned with modeling tsunami waves, where computational time is of extreme essence, for broadcasting warnings. In order to test the efficacy of the GPU on the set of shallow-water equations, we employed the NVIDIA board 8600M GT on a MacBook Pro. We have compared the relative speeds between the CPU and the GPU on a single processor for two types of spatial discretization based on second-order finite-differences and radial basis functions. RBFs are a more novel method based on a gridless and a multi- scale, adaptive framework. Using the NVIDIA 8600M GT, we received a speed up factor of 8 in favor of GPU for the finite-difference method and a factor of 7 for the RBF scheme. We have also studied the atmospheric dynamics problem of swirling flows over a spherical surface and found a speed-up of 5.3 using the GPU. The time steps employed for the RBF method are larger than those used in finite-differences, because of the much fewer number of nodal points needed by RBF. Thus, in modeling the same physical time, RBF acting in concert with GPU would be the fastest way to go.

  20. The raising of tsunami-wall based on tsunami evaluation at Onagawa nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Jun; Hirata, Kazuo

    2017-01-01

    Onagawa nuclear power station (Onagawa NPS) is located on the Pacific coast of Tohoku district where several massive tsunamis had attacked in the past. Based on this natural condition, tsunami safety measures were planned and carried out since the planning of the unit 1. For example, we set appropriate site height for protecting important facilities from tsunamis. As a result, in the massive tsunami which was caused by the 2011 off the Pacific Tohoku Earthquake (3.11 earthquake) on March 11, 2011, all units of Onagawa NPS achieved the cold shutdown. After 3.11 earthquake, we revaluated tsunami considering latest knowledge. In the tsunami re-evaluation, we carried out documents investigation about all tsunami source factors and set the standard fault models which were thought to be appropriate as tsunami wave sources. As a result, the highest water level at the site front is evaluated as 23.1 m. Based on this examination result, we decided to raise the existing seawall (approximately 17 m) to 29 m in consideration of margin and so on. Because the space of the site was limited, we planned a combination of steel-pipe type vertical wall (L = 680 m) and embankment (L = 120 m) due to cement improved soil. (author)

  1. Seismically generated tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcas, Diego; Segur, Harvey

    2012-04-13

    People around the world know more about tsunamis than they did 10 years ago, primarily because of two events: a tsunami on 26 December 2004 that killed more than 200,000 people around the shores of the Indian Ocean; and an earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 that killed nearly 15,000 more and triggered a nuclear accident, with consequences that are still unfolding. This paper has three objectives: (i) to summarize our current knowledge of the dynamics of tsunamis; (ii) to describe how that knowledge is now being used to forecast tsunamis; and (iii) to suggest some policy changes that might protect people better from the dangers of future tsunamis.

  2. Modeling fragmentation with new high order finite element technology and node splitting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olovsson Lars

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of fragmentation has historically been linked to the weapons industry where the main goal is to optimize a bomb or to design effective blast shields. Numerical modeling of fragmentation from dynamic loading has traditionally been modeled by legacy finite element solvers that rely on element erosion to model material failure. However this method results in the removal of too much material. This is not realistic as retaining the mass of the structure is critical to modeling the event correctly. We propose a new approach implemented in the IMPETUS AFEA SOLVER® based on the following: New High Order Finite Elements that can easily deal with very large deformations; Stochastic distribution of initial damage that allows for a non homogeneous distribution of fragments; and a Node Splitting Algorithm that allows for material fracture without element erosion that is mesh independent. The approach is evaluated for various materials and scenarios: -Titanium ring electromagnetic compression; Hard steel Taylor bar impact, Fused silica Taylor bar impact, Steel cylinder explosion, The results obtained from the simulations are representative of the failure mechanisms observed experimentally. The main benefit of this approach is good energy conservation (no loss of mass and numerical robustness even in complex situations.

  3. Tsunami Induced Scour Around Monopile Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Eltard-Larsen, Bjarke; Baykal, Cüneyt

    While the run-up, inundation, and destructive potential of tsunami events has received considerable attention in the literature, the associated interaction with the sea bed i.e. boundary layer dynamics, induced sediment transport, and resultant sea bed morphology, has received relatively little...... specific attention. The present paper aims to further the understanding of tsunami-induced scour, by numerically investigating tsunami-induced flow and scour processes around a monopile structure, representative of those commonly utilized as offshore wind turbine foundations. The simulations are based...... a monopile at model (laboratory) spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, prior to conducting such numerical simulations involving tsunami-induced scour, it is necessary to first establish a methodology for maintaining similarity of model and full field scales. To achieve hydrodynamic similarity we...

  4. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

    2006-12-01

    The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

  5. Mechanistic formulation of a lineal-quadratic-linear (LQL) model: Split-dose experiments and exponentially decaying sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrero, Mariana; Carlone, Marco

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: In recent years, several models were proposed that modify the standard linear-quadratic (LQ) model to make the predicted survival curve linear at high doses. Most of these models are purely phenomenological and can only be applied in the particular case of acute doses per fraction. The authors consider a mechanistic formulation of a linear-quadratic-linear (LQL) model in the case of split-dose experiments and exponentially decaying sources. This model provides a comprehensive description of radiation response for arbitrary dose rate and fractionation with only one additional parameter. Methods: The authors use a compartmental formulation of the LQL model from the literature. They analytically solve the model's differential equations for the case of a split-dose experiment and for an exponentially decaying source. They compare the solutions of the survival fraction with the standard LQ equations and with the lethal-potentially lethal (LPL) model. Results: In the case of the split-dose experiment, the LQL model predicts a recovery ratio as a function of dose per fraction that deviates from the square law of the standard LQ. The survival fraction as a function of time between fractions follows a similar exponential law as the LQ but adds a multiplicative factor to the LQ parameter β. The LQL solution for the split-dose experiment is very close to the LPL prediction. For the decaying source, the differences between the LQL and the LQ solutions are negligible when the half-life of the source is much larger than the characteristic repair time, which is the clinically relevant case. Conclusions: The compartmental formulation of the LQL model can be used for arbitrary dose rates and provides a comprehensive description of dose response. When the survival fraction for acute doses is linear for high dose, a deviation of the square law formula of the recovery ratio for split doses is also predicted.

  6. Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Kenji

    2018-01-01

    Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

  7. Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

    2014-12-01

    earthquake occurs took about 2 minutes, which would be sufficient for a practical tsunami inundation predictions. In the presentation, the computational performance of our faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation model will be shown, and preferable tsunami wave source analysis for an accurate inundation prediction will also be discussed.

  8. Real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and damage mapping towards enhancing tsunami disaster resiliency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshimura, S.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.

    2014-12-01

    With use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, a project is underway to establish a new system of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance society's resilience in the aftermath of major tsunami disaster. The system consists of fusion of real-time crustal deformation monitoring/fault model estimation by Ohta et al. (2012), high-performance real-time tsunami propagation/inundation modeling with NEC's vector supercomputer SX-ACE, damage/loss estimation models (Koshimura et al., 2013), and geo-informatics. After a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, the first response of the system is to identify the tsunami source model by applying RAPiD Algorithm (Ohta et al., 2012) to observed RTK-GPS time series at GEONET sites in Japan. As performed in the data obtained during the 2011 Tohoku event, we assume less than 10 minutes as the acquisition time of the source model. Given the tsunami source, the system moves on to running tsunami propagation and inundation model which was optimized on the vector supercomputer SX-ACE to acquire the estimation of time series of tsunami at offshore/coastal tide gauges to determine tsunami travel and arrival time, extent of inundation zone, maximum flow depth distribution. The implemented tsunami numerical model is based on the non-linear shallow-water equations discretized by finite difference method. The merged bathymetry and topography grids are prepared with 10 m resolution to better estimate the tsunami inland penetration. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, the system performs GIS analysis to determine the numbers of exposed population and structures using census data, then estimates the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve (Koshimura et al., 2013). Since the tsunami source model is determined, the model is supposed to complete the estimation within 10 minutes. The results are disseminated as mapping products to

  9. A Proposal for the Time Domain Modeling of Split Air Conditioners for Consumer Reimbursement Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, Paulo Henrique Oliveira; Almeida Junior, Afonso Bernardino; Gondim, Isaque Nogueira; Oliveira, José Carlos

    2015-04-01

    This paper deals with computer application procedures for the evaluation of the causal consistency between anomalous phenomena manifested in electrical networks, along with the physical damage associated with electrical equipment and possible reimbursement requests. The focus is on the development of an air conditioner appliance model of the type known as split founded upon a representation, in the time domain, in accordance with the Alternative Transients Program (ATP) simulator requirements. This approach permits investigations concerning the performance of the product when submitted to ideal and non-ideal supply conditions. Once the equipment model is implemented in the program, a set of investigative studies are carried out to show the device performance under specific energy quality disturbance conditions. In addition, there are still the results for the validation of the process established through the correlation between computational performance of the air conditioner with corresponding studies carried out experimentally, which are presented herein. Moreover, once the effectiveness of the developed model is verified, it is implemented into the Requests for Reimbursement Software. Investigations related to the correlation between disturbances and the levels of thermal and dielectric tolerance are then performed aiming at illustrating the use of the research results for the reimbursement analyzes purposes.

  10. Solution Procedure for Transport Modeling in Effluent Recharge Based on Operator-Splitting Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shutang Zhu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The coupling of groundwater movement and reactive transport during groundwater recharge with wastewater leads to a complicated mathematical model, involving terms to describe convection-dispersion, adsorption/desorption and/or biodegradation, and so forth. It has been found very difficult to solve such a coupled model either analytically or numerically. The present study adopts operator-splitting techniques to decompose the coupled model into two submodels with different intrinsic characteristics. By applying an upwind finite difference scheme to the finite volume integral of the convection flux term, an implicit solution procedure is derived to solve the convection-dominant equation. The dispersion term is discretized in a standard central-difference scheme while the dispersion-dominant equation is solved using either the preconditioned Jacobi conjugate gradient (PJCG method or Thomas method based on local-one-dimensional scheme. The solution method proposed in this study is applied to the demonstration project of groundwater recharge with secondary effluent at Gaobeidian sewage treatment plant (STP successfully.

  11. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  12. Characteristics of Recent Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, A. D.; Eble, M. C.; Mungov, G.

    2017-12-01

    How long do tsunamis impact a coast? How often is the largest tsunami wave the first to arrive? How do measurements in the far field differ from those made close to the source? Extending the study of Eblé et al. (2015) who showed the prevalence of a leading negative phase, we assimilate and summarize characteristics of known tsunami events recorded on bottom pressure and coastal water level stations throughout the world oceans to answer these and other questions. An extensive repository of data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) archive for tsunami-ready U.S. tide gauge stations, housing more than 200 sites going back 10 years are utilized as are some of the more 3000 marigrams (analog or paper tide gauge records) for tsunami events. The focus of our study is on five tsunamis generated by earthquakes: 2010 Chile (Maule), 2011 East Japan (Tohoku), 2012 Haida Gwaii, 2014 Chile (Iquique), and 2015 Central Chile and one meteorologically generated tsunami on June 2013 along the U.S. East Coast and Caribbean. Reference: Eblé, M., Mungov, G. & Rabinovich, A. On the Leading Negative Phase of Major 2010-2014 Tsunamis. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2015) 172: 3493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1127-5

  13. Statistical identification with hidden Markov models of large order splitting strategies in an equity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2010-07-01

    Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders, we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick-by-tick inventory variation of market members of the Spanish Stock Exchange. Our methodology probabilistically detects trading sequences, which are characterized by a significant majority of buy or sell transactions. We interpret these patches of sequential buying or selling transactions as proxies of the traded hidden orders. We find that the time, volume and number of transaction size distributions of these patches are fat tailed. Long patches are characterized by a large fraction of market orders and a low participation rate, while short patches have a large fraction of limit orders and a high participation rate. We observe the existence of a buy-sell asymmetry in the number, average length, average fraction of market orders and average participation rate of the detected patches. The detected asymmetry is clearly dependent on the local market trend. We also compare the hidden Markov model patches with those obtained with the segmentation method used in Vaglica et al (2008 Phys. Rev. E 77 036110), and we conclude that the former ones can be interpreted as a partition of the latter ones.

  14. Establishment of a rat model of portal vein ligation combined with in situ splitting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Libin; Li, Chonghui; Ge, Xinlan; Wang, Hongdong; Xu, Kesen; Zhang, Aiqun; Dong, Jiahong

    2014-01-01

    Portal vein ligation (PVL) combined with in situ splitting (ISS) has been shown to induce remarkable liver regeneration in patients. The purpose of this study was to establish a model of PVL+ISS in rats for exploring the possible mechanisms of liver regeneration using these techniques. Rats were randomly assigned to three experimental groups: selective PVL, selective PVL+ISS and sham operation. The hepatic regeneration rate (HRR), Ki-67, liver biochemical determinations and histopathology were assessed at 24, 48, and 72 h and 7 days after the operation. The microcirculation of the median lobes before and after ISS was examined by laser speckle contrast imaging. Meanwhile, cytokines such as TNF-α, IL-6, HGF and HSP70 in regenerating liver lobes at 24 h was investigated by RT-PCR and ELISA. The HRR of PVL+ISS was much higher than that of the PVL at 72 h and 7 days after surgery (pprotein levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and HGF in regenerating liver lobes were higher in the PVL+ISS than the PVL alone. The higher HRR in the PVL+ISS compared with the PVL confirmed that we had successfully established a PVL+ISS model in rats. The possible mechanisms included the reduced microcirculation blood perfusion of the left median lobe and up-regulation of cytokines in the regenerating lobes after ISS.

  15. An efficient mode-splitting method for a curvilinear nearshore circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Fengyan; Kirby, James T.; Hanes, Daniel M.

    2007-01-01

    A mode-splitting method is applied to the quasi-3D nearshore circulation equations in generalized curvilinear coordinates. The gravity wave mode and the vorticity wave mode of the equations are derived using the two-step projection method. Using an implicit algorithm for the gravity mode and an explicit algorithm for the vorticity mode, we combine the two modes to derive a mixed difference–differential equation with respect to surface elevation. McKee et al.'s [McKee, S., Wall, D.P., and Wilson, S.K., 1996. An alternating direction implicit scheme for parabolic equations with mixed derivative and convective terms. J. Comput. Phys., 126, 64–76.] ADI scheme is then used to solve the parabolic-type equation in dealing with the mixed derivative and convective terms from the curvilinear coordinate transformation. Good convergence rates are found in two typical cases which represent respectively the motions dominated by the gravity mode and the vorticity mode. Time step limitations imposed by the vorticity convective Courant number in vorticity-mode-dominant cases are discussed. Model efficiency and accuracy are verified in model application to tidal current simulations in San Francisco Bight.

  16. Application of kinetic flux vector splitting scheme for solving multi-dimensional hydrodynamical models of semiconductor devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisar, Ubaid Ahmed; Ashraf, Waqas; Qamar, Shamsul

    In this article, one and two-dimensional hydrodynamical models of semiconductor devices are numerically investigated. The models treat the propagation of electrons in a semiconductor device as the flow of a charged compressible fluid. It plays an important role in predicting the behavior of electron flow in semiconductor devices. Mathematically, the governing equations form a convection-diffusion type system with a right hand side describing the relaxation effects and interaction with a self consistent electric field. The proposed numerical scheme is a splitting scheme based on the kinetic flux-vector splitting (KFVS) method for the hyperbolic step, and a semi-implicit Runge-Kutta method for the relaxation step. The KFVS method is based on the direct splitting of macroscopic flux functions of the system on the cell interfaces. The second order accuracy of the scheme is achieved by using MUSCL-type initial reconstruction and Runge-Kutta time stepping method. Several case studies are considered. For validation, the results of current scheme are compared with those obtained from the splitting scheme based on the NT central scheme. The effects of various parameters such as low field mobility, device length, lattice temperature and voltage are analyzed. The accuracy, efficiency and simplicity of the proposed KFVS scheme validates its generic applicability to the given model equations. A two dimensional simulation is also performed by KFVS method for a MESFET device, producing results in good agreement with those obtained by NT-central scheme.

  17. MODELLING AND CONTROL OF POWER-SPLIT HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE USING FUZZY LOGIC METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadpour, Ebrahim; Khajavi, Mehrdad Nouri

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, automotive manufactures increasingly have lead to development of hybrid vehicles due to energy consumption growing and increased emissions. the power-split hybrids due to the simultaneous using of speed and torque couplings has integrated advantage of series and parallel hybrid systems and minimize their disadvantages , however the power-split hybrids control strategy is far more complex than other types. Generally the control strategy tries to use the optimize operating point of HE...

  18. Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

    2017-03-01

    Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

  19. NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

    2009-01-01

    West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

  20. Landslide tsunami hazard in the Indonesian Sunda Arc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Brune

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The Indonesian archipelago is known for the occurrence of catastrophic earthquake-generated tsunamis along the Sunda Arc. The tsunami hazard associated with submarine landslides however has not been fully addressed. In this paper, we compile the known tsunamigenic events where landslide involvement is certain and summarize the properties of published landslides that were identified with geophysical methods. We depict novel mass movements, found in newly available bathymetry, and determine their key parameters. Using numerical modeling, we compute possible tsunami scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a way of identifying landslide tsunamis using an array of few buoys with bottom pressure units.

  1. Spatial Analysis of Traffic and Routing Path Methods for Tsunami Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhrurrozi, A.; Sari, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Tsunami disaster occurred relatively very fast. Thus, it has a very large-scale impact on both non-material and material aspects. Community evacuation caused mass panic, crowds, and traffic congestion. A further research in spatial based modelling, traffic engineering and splitting zone evacuation simulation is very crucial as an effort to reduce higher losses. This topic covers some information from the previous research. Complex parameters include route selection, destination selection, the spontaneous timing of both the departure of the source and the arrival time to destination and other aspects of the result parameter in various methods. The simulation process and its results, traffic modelling, and routing analysis emphasized discussion which is the closest to real conditions in the tsunami evacuation process. The method that we should highlight is Clearance Time Estimate based on Location Priority in which the computation result is superior to others despite many drawbacks. The study is expected to have input to improve and invent a new method that will be a part of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction of tsunamis disaster.

  2. Regional Quasi-Three-Dimensional Unsaturated-Saturated Water Flow Model Based on a Vertical-Horizontal Splitting Concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Zhu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to the high nonlinearity of the three-dimensional (3-D unsaturated-saturated water flow equation, using a fully 3-D numerical model is computationally expensive for large scale applications. A new unsaturated-saturated water flow model is developed in this paper based on the vertical/horizontal splitting (VHS concept to split the 3-D unsaturated-saturated Richards’ equation into a two-dimensional (2-D horizontal equation and a one-dimensional (1-D vertical equation. The horizontal plane of average head gradient in the triangular prism element is derived to split the 3-D equation into the 2-D equation. The lateral flow in the horizontal plane of average head gradient represented by the 2-D equation is then calculated by the water balance method. The 1-D vertical equation is discretized by the finite difference method. The two equations are solved simultaneously by coupling them into a unified nonlinear system with a single matrix. Three synthetic cases are used to evaluate the developed model code by comparing the modeling results with those of Hydrus1D, SWMS2D and FEFLOW. We further apply the model to regional-scale modeling to simulate groundwater table fluctuations for assessing the model applicability in complex conditions. The proposed modeling method is found to be accurate with respect to measurements.

  3. Model-independent determination of the two-photon exchange contribution to hyperfine splitting in muonic hydrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peset, Clara; Pineda, Antonio [Grup de Física Teòrica, Dept. Física and IFAE-BIST, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,E-08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain)

    2017-04-11

    We obtain a model-independent prediction for the two-photon exchange contribution to the hyperfine splitting in muonic hydrogen. We use the relation of the Wilson coefficients of the spin-dependent dimension-six four-fermion operator of NRQED applied to the electron-proton and to the muon-proton sectors. Their difference can be reliably computed using chiral perturbation theory, whereas the Wilson coefficient of the electron-proton sector can be determined from the hyperfine splitting in hydrogen. This allows us to give a precise model-independent determination of the Wilson coefficient for the muon-proton sector, and consequently of the two-photon exchange contribution to the hyperfine splitting in muonic hydrogen, which reads δĒ{sub pμ,HF}{sup TPE}(nS)=−(1/(n{sup 3}))1.161(20) meV. Together with the associated QED analysis, we obtain a prediction for the hyperfine splitting in muonic hydrogen that reads E{sub pμ,HF}{sup th}(1S)=182.623(27) meV and E{sub pμ,HF}{sup th}(2S)=22.8123(33) meV. The error is dominated by the two-photon exchange contribution.

  4. Boson-fermion mass splittings in four-dimensional heterotic string models with anomalous U(1) gauge groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Masahiro; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Onogi, Tetsuya

    1989-01-01

    In four-dimensional heterotic string models with anomalous U(1) gauge groups, space-time supersymmetry (SUSY) breaks down spontaneously at one loop. In this paper, the Ward-Takahashi identity of broken SUSY in one-loop two-point amplitudes is investigated in all generalities. The boson-fermion mass splitting of any supersymmetric pair in an arbitrary model is proportional to the product of the D-term expectation value (the sum of (chirality)x(U(1) charge) of massless fermions in the model) and the U(1) charge of the external particle. In order to give a better understanding of the results, we present some examples of the mass splittings in a simple Z 3 orbifold model. (orig.)

  5. Should tsunami simulations include a nonzero initial horizontal velocity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotto, Gabriel C.; Nava, Gabriel; Dunham, Eric M.

    2017-08-01

    Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require initial conditions on sea surface height and depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). Full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor confirm that substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean. However, almost all of that initial momentum is carried away by ocean acoustic waves, with negligible momentum imparted to the tsunami. We also compare tsunami propagation in each simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial velocity. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves from ocean acoustic and seismic waves at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami waves to their initial state by solving the

  6. Book review: Physics of tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2017-01-01

    “Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. Various topics of tsunami physics are examined largely from a theoretical perspective, although there is little information on how the physical descriptions are applied in numerical models.“Physics of Tsunamis”, by B. W. Levin and M. A. Nosov, Second Edition, Springer, 2016; ISBN-10: 33-1933106X, ISBN-13: 978-331933-1065

  7. Establishment of a rat model of portal vein ligation combined with in situ splitting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libin Yao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Portal vein ligation (PVL combined with in situ splitting (ISS has been shown to induce remarkable liver regeneration in patients. The purpose of this study was to establish a model of PVL+ISS in rats for exploring the possible mechanisms of liver regeneration using these techniques. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Rats were randomly assigned to three experimental groups: selective PVL, selective PVL+ISS and sham operation. The hepatic regeneration rate (HRR, Ki-67, liver biochemical determinations and histopathology were assessed at 24, 48, and 72 h and 7 days after the operation. The microcirculation of the median lobes before and after ISS was examined by laser speckle contrast imaging. Meanwhile, cytokines such as TNF-α, IL-6, HGF and HSP70 in regenerating liver lobes at 24 h was investigated by RT-PCR and ELISA. RESULTS: The HRR of PVL+ISS was much higher than that of the PVL at 72 h and 7 days after surgery (p<0.01. The expression of Ki-67 in hepatocytes in the regenerating liver lobe was stronger in the PVL+ISS group than in the PVL group at 48 and 72 h (p<0.01. There was a significant reduction in microcirculation blood perfusion of the left median lobe before and after ISS. Liver biochemical determinations and histopathology demonstrated more severe hepatocyte injury in the PVL+ISS group. Both the mRNA levels of TNF-α and IL-6 and the protein levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and HGF in regenerating liver lobes were higher in the PVL+ISS than the PVL alone. CONCLUSIONS: The higher HRR in the PVL+ISS compared with the PVL confirmed that we had successfully established a PVL+ISS model in rats. The possible mechanisms included the reduced microcirculation blood perfusion of the left median lobe and up-regulation of cytokines in the regenerating lobes after ISS.

  8. A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2017-01-01

    Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

  9. Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Inundation depth is commonly used as an intensity measure in tsunami fragility analysis. However, inundation depth cannot be taken as the sole representation of tsunami impact on structures, especially when structural damage is caused by hydrodynamic and debris impact forces that are mainly determined by flow velocity. To reflect the influence of flow velocity in addition to inundation depth in tsunami risk assessment, a tsunami loss estimation method that adopts both inundation depth and flow velocity (i.e., bivariate intensity measures in evaluating tsunami damage is developed. To consider a wide range of possible tsunami inundation scenarios, Monte Carlo-based tsunami simulations are performed using stochastic earthquake slip distributions derived from a spectral synthesis method and probabilistic scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters. By focusing on Sendai (plain coast and Onagawa (ria coast in the Miyagi Prefecture of Japan in a case study, the stochastic tsunami loss is evaluated by total economic loss and its spatial distribution at different scales. The results indicate that tsunami loss prediction is highly sensitive to modelling resolution and inclusion of flow velocity for buildings located less than 1 km from the sea for Sendai and Onagawa of Miyagi Prefecture.

  10. Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2018-01-01

    Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  11. The Three Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antcliff, Richard R.

    2007-01-01

    We often talk about how different our world is from our parent's world. We then extrapolate this thinking to our children and try to imagine the world they will face. This is hard enough. However, change is changing! The rate at which change is occurring is accelerating. These new ideas, technologies and ecologies appear to be coming at us like tsunamis. Our approach to responding to these oncoming tsunamis will frame the future our children will live in. There are many of these tsunamis; I am just going to focus on three really big ones heading our way.

  12. Did a submarine landslide contribute to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami?

    KAUST Repository

    Tappin, David R.

    2014-09-28

    Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but the following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models of tsunami propagation and coastal impact underpredict the observed runup heights of up to 40 m measured along the coast of the Sanriku district in the northeast part of Honshu Island. (2) Published models cannot reproduce the timing and high-frequency content of tsunami waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor the timing and dispersion properties of the waveforms at offshore DART buoy #21418. (3) The rupture centroids obtained by tsunami inversions are biased about 60 km NNE of that obtained by the Global CMT Project. Based on an analysis of seismic and geodetic data, together with recorded tsunami waveforms, we propose that, while the primary source of the tsunami was the vertical displacement of the seafloor due to the earthquake, an additional tsunami source is also required. We infer the location of the proposed additional source based on an analysis of the travel times of higher-frequency tsunami waves observed at nearshore buoys. We further propose that the most likely additional tsunami source was a submarine mass failure (SMF—i.e., a submarine landslide). A comparison of pre- and post-tsunami bathymetric surveys reveals tens of meters of vertical seafloor movement at the proposed SMF location, and a slope stability analysis confirms that the horizontal acceleration from the earthquake was sufficient to trigger an SMF. Forward modeling of the tsunami generated by a combination of the earthquake and the SMF reproduces the recorded on-, near- and offshore tsunami observations well, particularly the high-frequency component of the tsunami waves off Sanriku, which were not well simulated by previous models. The conclusion that a significant part of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was generated by an SMF source has important implications for

  13. Dynamic behaviour of a flexible membrane tsunami Barrier with Dyneema®

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofland, B.; Marissen, R.; Bergsma, O.K.

    2016-01-01

    Proof-of-concept model tests on a novel self-deploying on-shore tsunami barrier were executed. The tsunami barrier consists of a membrane, floater and cables that are stored underground. Due to buoyancy the barrier self-deploys when struck by a tsunami. The membrane and cables consist of the strong,

  14. New Perspective of Tsunami Deposit Investigations: Insight from the 1755 Lisbon Tsunami in Martinique, Lesser Antilles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, J.; Clouard, V.; Moizan, E.

    2014-12-01

    The recent devastating tsunamis having occurred during the last decades have highlighted the essential necessity to deploy operationnal warning systems and educate coastal populations. This could not be prepared correctly without a minimum knowledge about the tsunami history. That is the case of the Lesser Antilles islands, where a few handfuls of tsunamis have been reported over the past 5 centuries, some of them leading to notable destructions and inundations. But the lack of accurate details for most of the historical tsunamis and the limited period during which we could find written information represents an important problem for tsunami hazard assessment in this region. Thus, it is of major necessity to try to find other evidences of past tsunamis by looking for sedimentary deposits. Unfortunately, island tropical environments do not seem to be the best places to keep such deposits burried. In fact, heavy rainfalls, storms, and all other phenomena leading to coastal erosion, and associated to human activities such as intensive sugarcane cultivation in coastal flat lands, could caused the loss of potential tsunami deposits. Lots of places have been accurately investigated within the Lesser Antilles (from Sainte-Lucia to the British Virgin Islands) the last 3 years and nothing convincing has been found. That is when archeaological investigations excavated a 8-cm thick sandy and shelly layer in downtown Fort-de-France (Martinique), wedged between two well-identified layers of human origin (Fig. 1), that we found new hope: this sandy layer has been quickly attributed without any doubt to the 1755 tsunami, using on one hand the information provided by historical reports of the construction sites, and on the other hand by numerical modeling of the tsunami (wave heights, velocity fields, etc.) showing the ability of this transoceanic tsunami to wrap around the island after ~7 hours of propagation, enter Fort-de-France's Bay with enough energy to carry sediments, and

  15. Observation-based Quantitative Uncertainty Estimation for Realtime Tsunami Inundation Forecast using ABIC and Ensemble Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagawa, T.

    2016-12-01

    An ensemble forecasting scheme for tsunami inundation is presented. The scheme consists of three elemental methods. The first is a hierarchical Bayesian inversion using Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). The second is Montecarlo sampling from a probability density function of multidimensional normal distribution. The third is ensamble analysis of tsunami inundation simulations with multiple tsunami sources. Simulation based validation of the model was conducted. A tsunami scenario of M9.1 Nankai earthquake was chosen as a target of validation. Tsunami inundation around Nagoya Port was estimated by using synthetic tsunami waveforms at offshore GPS buoys. The error of estimation of tsunami inundation area was about 10% even if we used only ten minutes observation data. The estimation accuracy of waveforms on/off land and spatial distribution of maximum tsunami inundation depth is demonstrated.

  16. Development of tsunami hazard analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-08-15

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidebooks on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guidebook of tsunami deposits survey and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, and (2) field survey on tsunami deposit to prepare the guidebook. As to (1), we especially gear to tsunami deposits distributed in the Pacific coast of Tohoku region, and organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. In addition, as to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. These results are reflected in the guidebook on the tsunami deposits in the lake as needed. (author)

  17. Development of tsunami hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The NSC (the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan) demand to survey on tsunami deposits by use of various technical methods (Dec. 2011), because tsunami deposits have useful information on tsunami activity, tsunami source etc. However, there are no guidebooks on tsunami deposit survey in JAPAN. In order to prepare the guidebook of tsunami deposits survey and to develop the method of tsunami source estimation on the basis of tsunami deposits, JNES carried out the following issues; (1) organizing information of paleoseismological record and tsunami deposit by literature research, and (2) field survey on tsunami deposit to prepare the guidebook. As to (1), we especially gear to tsunami deposits distributed in the Pacific coast of Tohoku region, and organize the information gained about tsunami deposits in the database. In addition, as to (2), we consolidate methods for surveying and identifying tsunami deposits in the lake based on results of the field survey in Fukui Pref., carried out by JNES. These results are reflected in the guidebook on the tsunami deposits in the lake as needed. (author)

  18. Tsunamis and marine life

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, D.V.S.; Ingole, B.S.; Tang, D.; Satyanarayan, B.; Zhao, H.

    The 26 December 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean exerted far reaching temporal and spatial impacts on marine biota. Our synthesis was based on satellite data acquired by the Laboratory for Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics (LED) of the South...

  19. Identification of tsunami deposits considering the tsunami waveform: An example of subaqueous tsunami deposits in Holocene shallow bay on southern Boso Peninsula, Central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Osamu; Kamataki, Takanobu

    2007-08-01

    This study proposes a tsunami depositional model based on observations of emerged Holocene tsunami deposits in outcrops located in eastern Japan. The model is also applicable to the identification of other deposits, such as those laid down by storms. The tsunami deposits described were formed in a small bay of 10-20-m water depth, and are mainly composed of sand and gravel. They show various sedimentary structures, including hummocky cross-stratification (HCS) and inverse and normal grading. Although, individually, the sedimentary structures are similar to those commonly found in storm deposits, the combination of vertical stacking in the tsunami deposits makes a unique pattern. This vertical stacking of internal structures is due to the waveform of the source tsunamis, reflecting: 1) extremely long wavelengths and wave period, and 2) temporal changes of wave sizes from the beginning to end of the tsunamis. The tsunami deposits display many sub-layers with scoured and graded structures. Each sub-layer, especially in sandy facies, is characterized by HCS and inverse and normal grading that are the result of deposition from prolonged high-energy sediment flows. The vertical stack of sub-layers shows incremental deposition from the repeated sediment flows. Mud drapes cover the sub-layers and indicate the existence of flow-velocity stagnant stages between each sediment flow. Current reversals within the sub-layers indicate the repeated occurrence of the up- and return-flows. The tsunami deposits are vertically divided into four depositional units, Tna to Tnd in ascending order, reflecting the temporal change of wave sizes in the tsunami wave trains. Unit Tna is relatively fine-grained and indicative of small tsunami waves during the early stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnb is a protruding coarse-grained and thickest-stratified division and is the result of a relatively large wave group during the middle stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnc is a fine alternation of thin sand

  20. Floods and tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Mark

    2006-06-01

    Floods and tsunamis cause few severe injuries, but those injuries can overwhelm local areas, depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Most injuries are extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains. Because of the mechanism of soft tissue and bone injuries, infection is a significant risk. Aspiration pneumonias are also associated with tsunamis. Appropriate precautionary interventions prevent communicable dis-ease outbreaks. Psychosocial health issues must be considered.

  1. Understanding river dune splitting through flume experiments and analysis of a dune evolution model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warmink, Jord Jurriaan; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Lansink, Jord; Naqshband, Suleyman; van Duin, Olav; Paarlberg, Andries; Termes, A.P.P.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.

    2014-01-01

    Forecasts of water level during river floods require accurate predictions of the evolution of river dune dimensions, because the hydraulic roughness of the main channel is largely determined by the bed morphology. River dune dimensions are controlled by processes like merging and splitting of dunes.

  2. Electric dipole moments of charged leptons in the split fermion scenario in the two Higgs doublet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iltan, E.O.

    2005-01-01

    We predict the charged lepton electric dipole moments in the split fermion scenario in the framework of the two Higgs doublet model. We observe that the numerical value of the muon (tau) electric dipole moment is of the order of the magnitude of 10 -22 e cm (10 -20 e cm) and there is an enhancement in the case of two extra dimensions, especially for the tau lepton electric dipole moment. (orig.)

  3. Tsunami Ionospheric warning and Ionospheric seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lognonne, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Rakoto, Virgile; Coisson, Pierdavide; Occhipinti, Giovanni; Larmat, Carene; Walwer, Damien; Astafyeva, Elvira; Hebert, Helene; Okal, Emile; Makela, Jonathan

    2014-05-01

    The last decade demonstrated that seismic waves and tsunamis are coupled to the ionosphere. Observations of Total Electron Content (TEC) and airglow perturbations of unique quality and amplitude were made during the Tohoku, 2011 giant Japan quake, and observations of much lower tsunamis down to a few cm in sea uplift are now routinely done, including for the Kuril 2006, Samoa 2009, Chili 2010, Haida Gwai 2012 tsunamis. This new branch of seismology is now mature enough to tackle the new challenge associated to the inversion of these data, with either the goal to provide from these data maps or profile of the earth surface vertical displacement (and therefore crucial information for tsunami warning system) or inversion, with ground and ionospheric data set, of the various parameters (atmospheric sound speed, viscosity, collision frequencies) controlling the coupling between the surface, lower atmosphere and the ionosphere. We first present the state of the art in the modeling of the tsunami-atmospheric coupling, including in terms of slight perturbation in the tsunami phase and group velocity and dependance of the coupling strength with local time, ocean depth and season. We then show the confrontation of modelled signals with observations. For tsunami, this is made with the different type of measurement having proven ionospheric tsunami detection over the last 5 years (ground and space GPS, Airglow), while we focus on GPS and GOCE observation for seismic waves. These observation systems allowed to track the propagation of the signal from the ground (with GPS and seismometers) to the neutral atmosphere (with infrasound sensors and GOCE drag measurement) to the ionosphere (with GPS TEC and airglow among other ionospheric sounding techniques). Modelling with different techniques (normal modes, spectral element methods, finite differences) are used and shown. While the fits of the waveform are generally very good, we analyse the differences and draw direction of future

  4. Synthetic tsunami waveform catalogs with kinematic constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, Maria Ana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Matias, Luis; Omira, Rachid

    2017-07-01

    In this study we present a comprehensive methodology to produce a synthetic tsunami waveform catalogue in the northeast Atlantic, east of the Azores islands. The method uses a synthetic earthquake catalogue compatible with plate kinematic constraints of the area. We use it to assess the tsunami hazard from the transcurrent boundary located between Iberia and the Azores, whose western part is known as the Gloria Fault. This study focuses only on earthquake-generated tsunamis. Moreover, we assume that the time and space distribution of the seismic events is known. To do this, we compute a synthetic earthquake catalogue including all fault parameters needed to characterize the seafloor deformation covering the time span of 20 000 years, which we consider long enough to ensure the representability of earthquake generation on this segment of the plate boundary. The computed time and space rupture distributions are made compatible with global kinematic plate models. We use the tsunami empirical Green's functions to efficiently compute the synthetic tsunami waveforms for the dataset of coastal locations, thus providing the basis for tsunami impact characterization. We present the results in the form of offshore wave heights for all coastal points in the dataset. Our results focus on the northeast Atlantic basin, showing that earthquake-induced tsunamis in the transcurrent segment of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary pose a minor threat to coastal areas north of Portugal and beyond the Strait of Gibraltar. However, in Morocco, the Azores, and the Madeira islands, we can expect wave heights between 0.6 and 0.8 m, leading to precautionary evacuation of coastal areas. The advantages of the method are its easy application to other regions and the low computation effort needed.

  5. Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre

  6. Band electron spectrum and thermodynamic properties of the pseudospin-electron model with tunneling splitting of levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.Ya.Farenyuk

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The pseudospin-electron model with tunneling splitting of levels is considered. Generalization of dynamic mean-field method for systems with correlated hopping was applied to the investigation of the model. Electron spectra, electron concentrations, average values of pseudospins and grand canonical potential were calculated within the alloy-analogy approximation. Electron spectrum and dependencies of the electron concentrations on chemical potential were obtained. It was shown that in the alloy-analogy approximation, the model possesses the first order phase transition to ferromagnetic state with the change of chemical potential and the second order phase transition with the change of temperature.

  7. Mobility-Aware Modeling and Analysis of Dense Cellular Networks With $C$ -Plane/ $U$ -Plane Split Architecture

    KAUST Repository

    Ibrahim, Hazem

    2016-09-19

    The unrelenting increase in the population of mobile users and their traffic demands drive cellular network operators to densify their network infrastructure. Network densification shrinks the footprint of base stations (BSs) and reduces the number of users associated with each BS, leading to an improved spatial frequency reuse and spectral efficiency, and thus, higher network capacity. However, the densification gain comes at the expense of higher handover rates and network control overhead. Hence, user’s mobility can diminish or even nullifies the foreseen densification gain. In this context, splitting the control plane ( C -plane) and user plane ( U -plane) is proposed as a potential solution to harvest densification gain with reduced cost in terms of handover rate and network control overhead. In this paper, we use stochastic geometry to develop a tractable mobility-aware model for a two-tier downlink cellular network with ultra-dense small cells and C -plane/ U -plane split architecture. The developed model is then used to quantify the effect of mobility on the foreseen densification gain with and without C -plane/ U -plane split. To this end, we shed light on the handover problem in dense cellular environments, show scenarios where the network fails to support certain mobility profiles, and obtain network design insights.

  8. Will oscillating wave surge converters survive tsunamis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O’Brien

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on renewable energy resources, wave power technology is becoming one of the realistic solutions. However, the 2011 tsunami in Japan was a harsh reminder of the ferocity of the ocean. It is known that tsunamis are nearly undetectable in the open ocean but as the wave approaches the shore its energy is compressed, creating large destructive waves. The question posed here is whether an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC could withstand the force of an incoming tsunami. Several tools are used to provide an answer: an analytical 3D model developed within the framework of linear theory, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations and empirical formulas. Numerical results show that run-up and draw-down can be amplified under some circumstances, leading to an OWSC lying on dry ground!

  9. Regularization of a λφ4 type tensor model, using point-splitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moura Melo, W.A.; Helayel-Neto, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    The idea of using point-splitting to avoid field products in the same point was first introduced by Dirac. This splitting would be applied for example, redefining the fields present in a small vertex, at different points. More recently, Osland and Wu, in a series of papers presented used the idea as a regularization method. An generalized Lagrangian was obtained for the Qed, with interaction terms not presenting field products at the same point, exhibiting however non-locality problems. Nevertheless this fact, the authors obtained satisfactory results with this formulation, such as the Higgs mass (190 GeV) and the divergence free top quark (120 GeV). This work intends to obtain a generalized Lagrangian, modifying the original theory to avoid that the interaction terms present field products at the same point

  10. 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vongvisessomjai, S.

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available A catastrophic tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused devastation in the coastal region of six southern provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea coast. This paper summaries the characteristics of tsunami with the aim of informing and warning the public and reducing future casualties and damage.The first part is a review of the records of past catastrophic tsunamis, namely those in Chile in 1960, Alaska in 1964, and Flores, Java, Indonesia, in 1992, and the lessons drawn from these tsunamis. An analysis and the impact of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami is then presented and remedial measures recommended.Results of this study are as follows:Firstly, the 2004 Sumatra tsunami ranked fourth in terms of earthquake magnitude (9.0 M after those in 1960 in Chile (9.5 M, 1899 in Alaska (9.2 M and 1964 in Alaska (9.1 M and ranked first in terms of damage and casualties. It was most destructive when breaking in shallow water nearshore.Secondly, the best alleviation measures are 1 to set up a reliable system for providing warning at the time of an earthquake in order to save lives and reduce damage and 2 to establish a hazard map and implement land-use zoning in the devastated areas, according to the following principles:- Large hotels located at an elevation of not less than 10 m above mean sea level (MSL- Medium hotels located at an elevation of not less than 6 m above MSL- Small hotel located at elevation below 6 m MSL, but with the first floor elevated on poles to allow passage of a tsunami wave- Set-back distances from shoreline established for various developments- Provision of shelters and evacuation directionsFinally, public education is an essential part of preparedness.

  11. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of the Pacific Coast of Mexico: Case Study Based on the 1995 Colima Earthquake Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a novel computational framework to carry out probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Pacific coast of Mexico. The new approach enables the consideration of stochastic tsunami source scenarios having variable fault geometry and heterogeneous slip that are constrained by an extensive database of rupture models for historical earthquakes around the world. The assessment focuses upon the 1995 Jalisco–Colima Earthquake Tsunami from a retrospective viewpoint. Numerous source scenarios of large subduction earthquakes are generated to assess the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation characteristics of the target region. Analyses of nine slip models along the Mexican Pacific coast are performed, and statistical characteristics of slips (e.g., coherent structures of slip spectra are estimated. The source variability allows exploring a wide range of tsunami scenarios for a moment magnitude (Mw 8 subduction earthquake in the Mexican Pacific region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the tsunami height variability. The numerical results indicate a strong sensitivity of maximum tsunami height to major slip locations in the source and indicate major uncertainty at the first peak of tsunami waves.

  12. Can Asteroid Airbursts Cause Dangerous Tsunami?.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    I have performed a series of high-resolution hydrocode simulations to generate “source functions” for tsunami simulations as part of a proof-of-principle effort to determine whether or not the downward momentum from an asteroid airburst can couple energy into a dangerous tsunami in deep water. My new CTH simulations show enhanced momentum multiplication relative to a nuclear explosion of the same yield. Extensive sensitivity and convergence analyses demonstrate that results are robust and repeatable for simulations with sufficiently high resolution using adaptive mesh refinement. I have provided surface overpressure and wind velocity fields to tsunami modelers to use as time-dependent boundary conditions and to test the hypothesis that this mechanism can enhance the strength of the resulting shallow-water wave. The enhanced momentum result suggests that coupling from an over-water plume-forming airburst could be a more efficient tsunami source mechanism than a collapsing impact cavity or direct air blast alone, but not necessarily due to the originally-proposed mechanism. This result has significant implications for asteroid impact risk assessment and airburst-generated tsunami will be the focus of a NASA-sponsored workshop at the Ames Research Center next summer, with follow-on funding expected.

  13. Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic

  14. Geometrical splitting in Monte Carlo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubi, A.; Elperin, T.; Dudziak, D.J.

    1982-01-01

    A statistical model is presented by which a direct statistical approach yielded an analytic expression for the second moment, the variance ratio, and the benefit function in a model of an n surface-splitting Monte Carlo game. In addition to the insight into the dependence of the second moment on the splitting parameters the main importance of the expressions developed lies in their potential to become a basis for in-code optimization of splitting through a general algorithm. Refs

  15. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  16. Splitting Descartes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schilhab, Theresa

    2007-01-01

    Kognition og Pædagogik vol. 48:10-18. 2003 Short description : The cognitivistic paradigm and Descartes' view of embodied knowledge. Abstract: That the philosopher Descartes separated the mind from the body is hardly news: He did it so effectively that his name is forever tied to that division....... But what exactly is Descartes' point? How does the Kartesian split hold up to recent biologically based learning theories?...

  17. Length-scales of Slab-induced Asthenospheric Deformation from Geodynamic Modeling, Mantle Deformation Fabric, and Synthetic Shear Wave Splitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadamec, M. A.; MacDougall, J.; Fischer, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    The viscosity structure of the Earth's interior is critically important, because it places a first order constraint on plate motion and mantle flow rates. Geodynamic models using a composite viscosity based on experimentally derived flow laws for olivine aggregates show that lateral viscosity variations emerge in the upper mantle due to the subduction dynamics. However, the length-scale of this transition is still not well understood. Two-dimensional numerical models of subduction are presented that investigate the effect of initial slab dip, maximum yield stress (slab strength), and viscosity formulation (Newtonian versus composite) on the emergent lateral viscosity variations in the upper-mantle and magnitude of slab-driven mantle flow velocity. Significant viscosity reductions occur in regions of large flow velocity gradients due to the weakening effect of the dislocation creep deformation mechanism. The dynamic reductions in asthenospheric viscosity (less than 1018 Pa s) occur within approximately 500 km from driving force of the slab, with peak flow velocities occurring in models with a lower yield stress (weaker slab) and higher stress exponent. This leads to a sharper definition of the rheological base of the lithosphere and implies lateral variability in tractions along the base of the lithosphere. As the dislocation creep mechanism also leads to mantle deformation fabric, we then examine the spatial variation in the LPO development in the asthenosphere and calculate synthetic shear wave splitting. The models show that olivine LPO fabric in the asthenosphere generally increases in alignment strength with increased proximity to the slab, but can be transient and spatially variable on small length scales. The vertical flow fields surrounding the slab tip can produce shear-wave splitting variations with back-azimuth that deviate from the predictions of uniform trench-normal anisotropy, a result that bears on the interpretation of complexity in shear

  18. Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.

    2013-12-01

    tsunami warning operations, such as those about earthquake magnitudes, how earthquakes are located, where and how often earthquakes occur, and fault rupture length. The second group uses the PTWC-developed tsunami forecast model, RIFT (Wang et al., 2012), to show how various historic tsunamis propagated through the world's oceans. These animations illustrate important concepts about tsunami behavior such as their speed, how they bend around and bounce off of seafloor features, how their wave heights vary from place to place and in time, and how their behavior is strongly influenced by the type of earthquake that generated them. PTWC's YouTube channel also includes an animation that simulates both seismic and tsunami phenomena together as they occurred for the 2011 Japan tsunami including actual sea-level measurements and proper timing for tsunami alert status, thus serving as a video 'time line' for that event and showing the time scales involved in tsunami warning operations. Finally, PTWC's scientists can use their YouTube channel to communicate with their colleagues in the research community by supplementing their peer-reviewed papers with video 'figures' (e.g., Wang et al., 2012).

  19. Tsunami engineering study in India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    ronmental Laboratory at NOAA, USA has the tsunami - research program ( http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/). Th e t sunami research group is part of the Civi l Engineering Department at the Universit y of Southern California where undergra - duate... the engineering point of view. The Tsunami Engineering Labor a tory at the graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku Unive r sit y (http://www.tsunami.civil.tohoku.a c.jp/ hokusai2/main/eng/index.html) offers r e- se arch programmes on tsunami. The Uni - versity...

  20. Tides and tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zetler, B. D.

    1972-01-01

    Although tides and tsunamis are both shallow water waves, it does not follow that they are equally amenable to an observational program using an orbiting altimeter on a satellite. A numerical feasibility investigation using a hypothetical satellite orbit, real tide observations, and sequentially increased levels of white noise has been conducted to study the degradation of the tidal harmonic constants caused by adding noise to the tide data. Tsunami waves, possibly a foot high and one hundred miles long, must be measured in individual orbits, thus requiring high relative resolution.

  1. On the moroccan tsunami catalogue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Kaabouben

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available A primary tool for regional tsunami hazard assessment is a reliable historical and instrumental catalogue of events. Morocco by its geographical situation, with two marine sides, stretching along the Atlantic coast to the west and along the Mediterranean coast to the north, is the country of Western Africa most exposed to the risk of tsunamis. Previous information on tsunami events affecting Morocco are included in the Iberian and/or the Mediterranean lists of tsunami events, as it is the case of the European GITEC Tsunami Catalogue, but there is a need to organize this information in a dataset and to assess the likelihood of claimed historical tsunamis in Morocco. Due to the fact that Moroccan sources are scarce, this compilation rely on historical documentation from neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain and so the compatibility between the new tsunami catalogue presented here and those that correspond to the same source areas is also discussed.

  2. Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2016-01-01

    Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  3. International year of planet earth 7. Oceans, submarine land-slides and consequent tsunamis in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, D.C.

    2009-01-01

    Canada has the longest coastline and largest continental margin of any nation in the World. As a result, it is more likely than other nations to experience marine geohazards such as submarine landslides and consequent tsunamis. Coastal landslides represent a specific threat because of their possible proximity to societal infrastructure and high tsunami potential; they occur without warning and with little time lag between failure and tsunami impact. Continental margin landslides are common in the geologic record but rare on human timescales. Some ancient submarine landslides are massive but more recent events indicate that even relatively small slides on continental margins can generate devastating tsunamis. Tsunami impact can occur hundreds of km away from the source event, and with less than 2 hours warning. Identification of high-potential submarine landslide regions, combined with an understanding of landslide and tsunami processes and sophisticated tsunami propagation models, are required to identify areas at high risk of impact.

  4. Tsunami in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulikov, Evgueni; Medvedev, Igor; Ivaschenko, Alexey

    2017-04-01

    The severity of the climate and sparsely populated coastal regions are the reason why the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean belongs to the least studied areas of the World Ocean. In the same time intensive economic development of the Arctic region, specifically oil and gas industry, require studies of potential thread natural disasters that can cause environmental and technical damage of the coastal and maritime infrastructure of energy industry complex (FEC). Despite the fact that the seismic activity in the Arctic can be attributed to a moderate level, we cannot exclude the occurrence of destructive tsunami waves, directly threatening the FEC. According to the IAEA requirements, in the construction of nuclear power plants it is necessary to take into account the impact of all natural disasters with frequency more than 10-5 per year. Planned accommodation in the polar regions of the Russian floating nuclear power plants certainly requires an adequate risk assessment of the tsunami hazard in the areas of their location. Develop the concept of tsunami hazard assessment would be based on the numerical simulation of different scenarios in which reproduced the hypothetical seismic sources and generated tsunamis. The analysis of available geological, geophysical and seismological data for the period of instrumental observations (1918-2015) shows that the highest earthquake potential within the Arctic region is associated with the underwater Mid-Arctic zone of ocean bottom spreading (interplate boundary between Eurasia and North American plates) as well as with some areas of continental slope within the marginal seas. For the Arctic coast of Russia and the adjacent shelf area, the greatest tsunami danger of seismotectonic origin comes from the earthquakes occurring in the underwater Gakkel Ridge zone, the north-eastern part of the Mid-Arctic zone. In this area, one may expect earthquakes of magnitude Mw ˜ 6.5-7.0 at a rate of 10-2 per year and of magnitude Mw ˜ 7.5 at a

  5. On the solitary wave paradigm for tsunamis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Per A.; Fuhrman, David R.; Schäffer, Hemming Andreas

    2008-01-01

    Since the 1970s, solitary waves have commonly been used to model tsunamis especially in experimental and mathematical studies. Unfortunately, the link to geophysical scales is not well established, and in this work we question the geophysical relevance of this paradigm. In part 1, we simulate...

  6. A Review of Methodologies on Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings to Tsunami Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, R.; Rosetto, T.; Tabuchi, S.; Suppasri, A.; Futami, T.; Scott, I.; Maegawa, H.

    2012-04-01

    The infrequency, suddenness and violence tsunamis has led to a lack of knowledge on tsunami and lack of data available for the calibration of numerical models particularly in relation to tsunami damage. Therefore, there are very few tsunami structural vulnerability studies available. Of the available literature, most of these started after the disastrous 2004 Indian Ocean event. Most of fragility curves have been developed in some areas struck by the 2004 tsunami, which are very different in architecture and engineering respect to the US, Japanese or European ones. This review aims to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of current knowledge on tsunami fragility by critically assessing several fragility curves based on post tsunami damage surveys in Chile, Japan (including initial findings of the March 2011 event), Samoa, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It is observed that there is no consensus on how to derive tsunami fragility curves. Most of the examined relationships are seen to relate to residential buildings, and, due to the location of recent tsunami occurrences, they mostly represent non-engineered buildings (i.e. all use data from Thailand, Sri Lanka, Samoa, or Sumatra), which limits their usefulness. In the absence of a good understanding of tsunami actions on buildings most existing fragility relationships adopt inundation depth as the hazard parameter in the vulnerability function, which does not account for the other components of onshore flow contributing to tsunami loads on buildings, such as flow velocity.

  7. Variations in sea surface roughness induced by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. A. Godin

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Observations of tsunamis away from shore are critically important for improving early warning systems and understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude there is much smaller than it is close to shore. Currently, tsunami observations in deep water rely on measurements of variations in the sea surface height or bottom pressure. Here we demonstrate that there exists a different observable, specifically, ocean surface roughness, which can be used to reveal tsunamis away from shore. The first detailed measurements of the tsunami effect on sea surface height and radar backscattering strength in the open ocean were obtained from satellite altimeters during passage of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami. Through statistical analyses of satellite altimeter observations, we show that the Sumatra-Andaman tsunami effected distinct, detectable changes in sea surface roughness. The magnitude and spatial structure of the observed variations in radar backscattering strength are consistent with hydrodynamic models predicting variations in the near-surface wind across the tsunami wave front. Tsunami-induced changes in sea surface roughness can be potentially used for early tsunami detection by orbiting microwave radars and radiometers, which have broad surface coverage across the satellite ground track.

  8. Source of high tsunamis along the southernmost Ryukyu trench inferred from tsunami stratigraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Masataka; Kitamura, Akihisa; Tu, Yoko; Ohashi, Yoko; Imai, Takafumi; Nakamura, Mamoru; Ikuta, Ryoya; Miyairi, Yosuke; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Shishikura, Masanobu

    2018-01-01

    Four paleotsunamis deposits are exposed in a trench on the coastal lowland north of the southern Ryukyu subduction zone trench. Radiocarbon ages on coral and bivalve shells show that the four deposits record tsunamis date from the last 2000 yrs., including a historical tsunami with a maximum run-up of 30 m in 1771, for an average recurrence interval of approximately 600 yrs. Ground fissures in a soil beneath the 1771 tsunami deposit may have been generated by stronger shaking than recorded by historical documents. The repeated occurrence of the paleotsunami deposits supports a tectonic source model on the plate boundary rather than a nontectonic source model, such as submarine landslides. Assuming a thrust model at the subduction zone, the seismic coupling ratio may be as low as 20%.

  9. Spatiotemporal Visualization of Tsunami Waves Using Kml on Google Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, H.; Delavar, M. R.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

    2017-09-01

    Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

  10. Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvan, D. A.; Komjathy, A.; Song, Y. Tony; Stephens, P.; Hickey, M. P.; Foster, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.

  11. Effect of Variable Manning Coefficients on Tsunami Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barberopoulou, A.; Rees, D.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulations are commonly used to help estimate tsunami hazard, improve evacuation plans, issue or cancel tsunami warnings, inform forecasting and hazard assessments and have therefore become an integral part of hazard mitigation among the tsunami community. Many numerical codes exist for simulating tsunamis, most of which have undergone extensive benchmarking and testing. Tsunami hazard or risk assessments employ these codes following a deterministic or probabilistic approach. Depending on the scope these studies may or may not consider uncertainty in the numerical simulations, the effects of tides, variable friction or estimate financial losses, none of which are necessarily trivial. Distributed manning coefficients, the roughness coefficients used in hydraulic modeling, are commonly used in simulating both riverine and pluvial flood events however, their use in tsunami hazard assessments is primarily part of limited scope studies and for the most part, not a standard practice. For this work, we investigate variations in manning coefficients and their effects on tsunami inundation extent, pattern and financial loss. To assign manning coefficients we use land use maps that come from the New Zealand Land Cover Database (LCDB) and more recent data from the Ministry of the Environment. More than 40 classes covering different types of land use are combined into major classes such as cropland, grassland and wetland representing common types of land use in New Zealand, each of which is assigned a unique manning coefficient. By utilizing different data sources for variable manning coefficients, we examine the impact of data sources and classification methodology on the accuracy of model outputs.

  12. Modeling of beam customization devices in the pencil-beam splitting algorithm for heavy charged particle radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanematsu, Nobuyuki, E-mail: nkanemat@nirs.go.jp [Department of Accelerator and Medical Physics, Research Center for Charged Particle Therapy, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, 4-9-1 Anagawa, Inage-ku, Chiba 263-8555 (Japan); Department of Quantum Science and Energy Engineering, School of Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6 Aramaki Aza Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8579 (Japan)

    2011-03-07

    A broad-beam-delivery system for radiotherapy with protons or ions often employs multiple collimators and a range-compensating filter, which offer complex and potentially useful beam customization. It is however difficult for conventional pencil-beam algorithms to deal with fine structures of these devices due to beam-size growth during transport. This study aims to avoid the difficulty with a novel computational model. The pencil beams are initially defined at the range-compensating filter with angular-acceptance correction for upstream collimation followed by stopping and scattering. They are individually transported with possible splitting near the aperture edge of a downstream collimator to form a sharp field edge. The dose distribution for a carbon-ion beam was calculated and compared with existing experimental data. The penumbra sizes of various collimator edges agreed between them to a submillimeter level. This beam-customization model will be used in the greater framework of the pencil-beam splitting algorithm for accurate and efficient patient dose calculation.

  13. Modeling of beam customization devices in the pencil-beam splitting algorithm for heavy charged particle radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanematsu, Nobuyuki

    2011-03-07

    A broad-beam-delivery system for radiotherapy with protons or ions often employs multiple collimators and a range-compensating filter, which offer complex and potentially useful beam customization. It is however difficult for conventional pencil-beam algorithms to deal with fine structures of these devices due to beam-size growth during transport. This study aims to avoid the difficulty with a novel computational model. The pencil beams are initially defined at the range-compensating filter with angular-acceptance correction for upstream collimation followed by stopping and scattering. They are individually transported with possible splitting near the aperture edge of a downstream collimator to form a sharp field edge. The dose distribution for a carbon-ion beam was calculated and compared with existing experimental data. The penumbra sizes of various collimator edges agreed between them to a submillimeter level. This beam-customization model will be used in the greater framework of the pencil-beam splitting algorithm for accurate and efficient patient dose calculation.

  14. Tsunamis triggered by the 12 January 2010 Earthquake in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Hillaire, J. V.; Molière, E.; Mohammed, F.; Wei, Y.

    2010-12-01

    . Field observations, video recordings, satellite imagery and numerical modelling are presented. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about the tsunami hazard. Community-based education and awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from locally generated tsunamis. Petit Paradis landslide scar with tree located 70m offshore

  15. Analysis and modeling of wafer-level process variability in 28 nm FD-SOI using split C-V measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeep, Krishna; Poiroux, Thierry; Scheer, Patrick; Juge, André; Gouget, Gilles; Ghibaudo, Gérard

    2018-07-01

    This work details the analysis of wafer level global process variability in 28 nm FD-SOI using split C-V measurements. The proposed approach initially evaluates the native on wafer process variability using efficient extraction methods on split C-V measurements. The on-wafer threshold voltage (VT) variability is first studied and modeled using a simple analytical model. Then, a statistical model based on the Leti-UTSOI compact model is proposed to describe the total C-V variability in different bias conditions. This statistical model is finally used to study the contribution of each process parameter to the total C-V variability.

  16. Asteroid-Generated Tsunami and Impact Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.; Aftosmis, M.; Berger, M. J.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Gisler, G.; Jennings, B.; LeVeque, R. J.; Mathias, D.; McCoy, C.; Robertson, D.; Titov, V. V.; Wheeler, L.

    2016-12-01

    The justification for planetary defense comes from a cost/benefit analysis, which includes risk assessment. The contribution from ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall risk. Our group is currently working toward improved understanding of impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunami. The importance of asteroid-generated tsunami research has increased because a new Science Definition Team, at the behest of NASA's Planetary Defense Coordinating Office, is now updating the results of a 2003 study on which our current planetary defense policy is based Our group was formed to address this question on many fronts, including asteroid entry modeling, tsunami generation and propagation simulations, modeling of coastal run-ups, inundation, and consequences, infrastructure damage estimates, and physics-based probabilistic impact risk assessment. We also organized the Second International Workshop on Asteroid Threat Assessment, focused on asteroid-generated tsunami and associated risk (Aug. 23-24, 2016). We will summarize our progress and present the highlights of our workshop, emphasizing its relevance to earth and planetary science. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  17. Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Eskijian, M.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.

    2014-12-01

    The California Tsunami Program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase tsunami hazard preparedness and mitigation in maritime communities (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The initial goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine 'safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. We will present details of a new initiative to evaluate the future likelihood of failure for different structural components of a harbor, leading to the identification of high priority areas for mitigation. This presentation will focus on the results from California ports and harbors across the State, and will include feedback we have received from discussions with local harbor masters and port authorities. To help promote accurate and consistent products, the authors are also working through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program to organize a tsunami current model benchmark workshop.

  18. NOAA/WDC Global Tsunami Deposits Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Discover where, when and how severely tsunamis affected Earth in geologic history. Information regarding Tsunami Deposits and Proxies for Tsunami Events complements...

  19. Severity and exposure associated to tsunami actions in urban waterfronts. The case of Lisbon, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Daniel; Telhado, Maria J.; Viana Baptista, Maria A.; Antunes, Carlos M.; Ferreira, Rui M. L.

    2014-05-01

    The Tagus estuary is recognized as an exposed location to tsunami occurrences, given its proximity to tsunamigenic faults such as the Marquês de Pombal and the Horseshoe fault system. Lisbon, bordered by the Tagus estuary, is a critical point of Portugal's tsunami hazard map, having been affected by several tsunamis (Baptista and Miranda, 2009) including the notorious event of November 1st 1755, the last major natural disaster known to have inflicted massive destruction in Portugal. The main objective of this work, a joint initiative of CEHIDRO (IST - Universidade de Lisboa) and the Municipal Civil Protection Services of Lisbon, is to contribute to the quantification of severity and exposure of Lisbon waterfront to tsunami events. For that purpose, the propagation of a tsunami similar to that of the 1st November of 1755 in the Tagus estuary was numerically simulated. Several scenarios were considered, articulating the influence of tidal (low and high tides), atmospheric (increase in water level due to storm surges) and hydrological (flow discharge in Tagus river) conditions. Different initial and boundary conditions were defined for each modelling scenario but the magnitude of the tsunami remained what is believed to be an exceptional event. The extent of the inundation and relevant hydrodynamic quantities were registered for all scenarios. The employed simulation tool - STAV-2D - was developed at CEHIDRO (IST) and is based on a 2DH spatial (Eulerian) shallow-flow approach suited to complex and dynamic bottom boundaries. The discretization technique relies on a finite-volume scheme, based on a flux-splitting technique incorporating a reviewed version of the Roe Riemann solver (Canelas et al. 2013, Conde et al. 2013). STAV-2D features conservation equations for the finer solid phase of the flow and also a Lagrangian model for the advection of larger debris elements. The urban meshwork was thoroughly discretized with a mesh finer than average street width. This fine

  20. When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.

  1. Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Kontar, Y.A.; Santiago-Fandiño, V.; Takahashi, T.

    2014-01-01

    California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

  2. Nonlinear behavior analysis of split-winding dry-type transformer using a new star model and a coupled field-circuit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizian Davood

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the importance of short circuit and inrush current simulations in the split-winding transformer, a novel nonlinear equivalent circuit is introduced in this paper for nonlinear simulation of this transformer. The equivalent circuit is extended using the nonlinear inductances. Employing a numerical method, leakage and magnetizing inductances in the split-winding transformer are extracted and the nonlinear model inductances are estimated using these inductances. The introduced model is validated and using this nonlinear model, inrush and short-circuit currents are calculated. It has been seen that the introduced model is valid and suitable for simulations of the split-winding transformer due to various loading conditions. Finally, the effects of nonlinearity of the model inductances are discussed in the following.

  3. Plasmon tsunamis on metallic nanoclusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, A A; Sunjic, M

    2012-03-14

    A model is constructed to describe inelastic scattering events accompanying electron capture by a highly charged ion flying by a metallic nanosphere. The electronic energy liberated by an electron leaving the Fermi level of the metal and dropping into a deep Rydberg state of the ion is used to increase the ion kinetic energy and, simultaneously, to excite multiple surface plasmons around the positively charged hole left behind on the metal sphere. This tsunami-like phenomenon manifests itself as periodic oscillations in the kinetic energy gain spectrum of the ion. The theory developed here extends our previous treatment (Lucas et al 2011 New J. Phys. 13 013034) of the Ar(q+)/C(60) charge exchange system. We provide an analysis of how the individual multipolar surface plasmons of the metallic sphere contribute to the formation of the oscillatory gain spectrum. Gain spectra showing characteristic, tsunami-like oscillations are simulated for Ar(15+) ions capturing one electron in distant collisions with Al and Na nanoclusters.

  4. Paleo-tsunami history along the northern Japan Trench: evidence from Noda Village, northern Sanriku coast, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Taiga; Goto, Kazuhisa; Nishimura, Yuichi; Watanabe, Masashi; Iijima, Yasutaka; Sugawara, Daisuke

    2017-12-01

    Throughout history, large tsunamis have frequently affected the Sanriku area of the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region, Japan, which faces the Japan Trench. Although a few studies have examined paleo-tsunami deposits along the Sanriku coast, additional studies of paleo-earthquakes and tsunamis are needed to improve our knowledge of the timing, recurrence interval, and size of historical and pre-historic tsunamis. At Noda Village, in Iwate Prefecture on the northern Sanriku coast, we found at least four distinct gravelly sand layers based on correlation and chronological data. Sedimentary features such as grain size and thickness suggest that extreme waves from the sea formed these layers. Numerical modeling of storm waves further confirmed that even extremely large storm waves cannot account for the distribution of the gravelly sand layers, suggesting that these deposits are highly likely to have formed by tsunami waves. The numerical method of storm waves can be useful to identify sand layers as tsunami deposits if the deposits are observed far inland or at high elevations. The depositional age of the youngest tsunami deposit is consistent with the AD 869 Jogan earthquake tsunami, a possible predecessor of the AD 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. If this is the case, then the study site currently defines the possible northern extent of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami deposit, which is an important step in improving the tsunami source model of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami. Our results suggest that four large tsunamis struck the Noda site between 1100 and 2700 cal BP. The local tsunami sizes are comparable to the AD 2011 and AD 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunamis, considering the landward extent of each tsunami deposit.

  5. Tsunami Arrival Detection with High Frequency (HF Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Barrick

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative real-time observations of a tsunami have been limited to deep-water, pressure-sensor observations of changes in the sea surface elevation and observations of sea level fluctuations at the coast, which are essentially point measurements. Constrained by these data, models have been used for predictions and warning of the arrival of a tsunami, but to date no system exists for local detection of an actual incoming wave with a significant warning capability. Networks of coastal high frequency (HF-radars are now routinely observing surface currents in many countries. We report here on an empirical method for the detection of the initial arrival of a tsunami, and demonstrate its use with results from data measured by fourteen HF radar sites in Japan and USA following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Sendai, Japan, on 11 March 2011. The distance offshore at which the tsunami can be detected, and hence the warning time provided, depends on the bathymetry: the wider the shallow continental shelf, the greater this time. We compare arrival times at the radars with those measured by neighboring tide gauges. Arrival times measured by the radars preceded those at neighboring tide gauges by an average of 19 min (Japan and 15 min (USA The initial water-height increase due to the tsunami as measured by the tide gauges was moderate, ranging from 0.3 to 2 m. Thus it appears possible to detect even moderate tsunamis using this method. Larger tsunamis could obviously be detected further from the coast. We find that tsunami arrival within the radar coverage area can be announced 8 min (i.e., twice the radar spectral time resolution after its first appearance. This can provide advance warning of the tsunami approach to the coastline locations.

  6. Amplification of tsunami heights by delayed rupture of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, K.; Satake, K.; Furumura, T.

    2010-04-01

    We investigated the effect of delayed rupture of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough on tsunami heights on the Japanese coast. As the tsunami source, we used a model of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which consists of four segments: Tokai, Tonankai, and two Nankai segments. We first searched for the worst case, in terms of coastal tsunami heights, of rupture delay time on each segment, on the basis of superposition principle for the linear long wave theory. When the rupture starts on the Tonankai segment, followed by rupture on the Tokai segment 21 min later, as well as the eastern and western Nankai segments 15 and 28 min later, respectively, the average coastal tsunami height becomes the largest. To quantify the tsunami amplification, we compared the coastal tsunami heights from the delayed rupture with those from the simultaneous rupture model. Along the coasts of the sea of Hyu'uga and in the Bungo Channel, the tsunami heights become significantly amplified (>1.4 times larger) relative to the simultaneous rupture. Along the coasts of Tosa Bay and in the Kii Channel, the tsunami heights become amplified about 1.2 times. Along the coasts of the sea of Kumano and Ise Bay, and the western Enshu coast, the tsunami heights become slightly smaller for the delayed rupture. Along the eastern Enshu coast, the coast of Suruga Bay, and the west coast of Sagami Bay, the tsunami heights become amplified about 1.1 times.

  7. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  8. A review of tsunami simulation activities for NPPs safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pavan K.

    2011-01-01

    The tsunami generated on December 26, 2004 due to Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9.3 resulted in inundation at the various coastal sites of India. The site selection and design of Indian nuclear power plants demand the evaluation of run up and the structural barriers for the coastal plants: Besides it is also desirable to evaluate the early warning system for tsunamigenic earthquakes. The tsunamis originate from submarine faults, underwater volcanic activities, sub-aerial landslides impinging on the sea and submarine landslides. In case of a submarine earthquake-induced tsunami the wave is generated in the fluid domain due to displacement of the seabed. There are three phases of tsunami: generation, propagation, and run-up. Reactor Safety Division (RSD) of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Trombay has initiated computational simulation for all the three phases of tsunami source generation, its propagation and finally run up evaluation for the protection of public life, property and various industrial infrastructures located on the coastal regions of India. These studies could be effectively utilized for design and implementation of early warning system for coastal region of the country apart from catering to the needs of Indian nuclear installations. This paper presents some results of tsunami waves based on finite difference numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. The present paper evaluate the results of various simulation i.e. Single fault Sumatra model, four and five fault Sumatra Model, Nias insignificant tsunami and also some parametric studies results for tsunami waring system scenario generation. A study is carried for the tsunami due to Sumatra earthquake in 2004 with TUNAMI-N2 software. Bathymetry data available from the National Geophysical Data Center was used for this study. The single fault and detailed four and five fault data were used to calculate sea surface deformations which were subsequently used as initial conditions for

  9. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This is Part 3 of Tsunami Information Sources published by Robert L. Wiegel, as Technical Report UCB/HEL 2006-3 of the Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory of the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering of the University of California at Berkeley. Part 3 is published in "SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS" -with the author's permission -so that it can receive wider distribution and use by the Tsunami Scientific Community.

  10. Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) Mw 6.6 earthquake and tsunami of 20 July 2017: a test for the Mediterranean tsunami warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ishibe, Takeo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.

    2017-12-01

    Various Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) within the Mediterranean Basin supply tsunami warnings including CAT-INGV (Italy), KOERI-RETMC (Turkey), and NOA/HL-NTWC (Greece). The 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) earthquake (Mw 6.6) and tsunami provided an opportunity to assess the response from these TSPs. Although the Bodrum-Kos tsunami was moderate (e.g., runup of 1.9 m) with little damage to properties, it was the first noticeable tsunami in the Mediterranean Basin since the 21 May 2003 western Mediterranean tsunami. Tsunami waveform analysis revealed that the trough-to-crest height was 34.1 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Bodrum (Turkey). Tsunami period band was 2-30 min with peak periods at 7-13 min. We proposed a source fault model for this tsunami with the length and width of 25 and 15 km and uniform slip of 0.4 m. Tsunami simulations using both nodal planes produced almost same results in terms of agreement between tsunami observations and simulations. Different TSPs provided tsunami warnings at 10 min (CAT-INGV), 19 min (KOERI-RETMC), and 18 min (NOA/HL-NTWC) after the earthquake origin time. Apart from CAT-INGV, whose initial Mw estimation differed 0.2 units with respect to the final value, the response from the other two TSPs came relatively late compared to the desired warning time of 10 min, given the difficulties for timely and accurate calculation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami impact assessment. It is argued that even if a warning time of 10 min was achieved, it might not have been sufficient for addressing near-field tsunami hazards. Despite considerable progress and achievements made within the upstream components of NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System), the experience from this moderate tsunami may highlight the need for improving operational capabilities of TSPs, but more importantly for effectively integrating civil protection authorities into NEAMTWS and strengthening

  11. Performance of coastal sea-defense infrastructure at El Jadida (Morocco against tsunami threat: lessons learned from the Japanese 11 March 2011 tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Omira

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to investigate the effectiveness of sea-defense structures in preventing/reducing the tsunami overtopping as well as evaluating the resulting tsunami impact at El Jadida, Morocco. Different tsunami wave conditions are generated by considering various earthquake scenarios of magnitudes ranging from Mw = 8.0 to Mw = 8.6. These scenarios represent the main active earthquake faults in the SW Iberia margin and are consistent with two past events that generated tsunamis along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The behaviour of incident tsunami waves when interacting with coastal infrastructures is analysed on the basis of numerical simulations of near-shore tsunami waves' propagation. Tsunami impact at the affected site is assessed through computing inundation and current velocity using a high-resolution digital terrain model that incorporates bathymetric, topographic and coastal structures data. Results, in terms of near-shore tsunami propagation snapshots, waves' interaction with coastal barriers, and spatial distributions of flow depths and speeds, are presented and discussed in light of what was observed during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Predicted results show different levels of impact that different tsunami wave conditions could generate in the region. Existing coastal barriers around the El Jadida harbour succeeded in reflecting relatively small waves generated by some scenarios, but failed in preventing the overtopping caused by waves from others. Considering the scenario highly impacting the El Jadida coast, significant inundations are computed at the sandy beach and unprotected areas. The modelled dramatic tsunami impact in the region shows the need for additional tsunami standards not only for sea-defense structures but also for the coastal dwellings and houses to provide potential in-place evacuation.

  12. Estimates of tsunami damage for Russian coast of the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaytsev, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet; Pelinovsky, Efim

    2010-05-01

    The historic database of tsunamis in the Black Sea contains 20 - 30 events with different level of validity, and at least six events occurred in 20th century. Numerical modeling of the last historic events is performed in the framework of shallow-water theory with use of code NAMI-DANCE. The computed tide-gauge records in Russian coastal locations are in good agreement with instrumental data for the 1939 and 1966 tsunamis. The tsunami of the landslide origin occurred in Sochi in 1970 is modeled in the framework of the two-layer model realized in TUNAMI. Also, some hypothetic tsunamis generated in the open part of the Black Sea are computed and the distribution of the tsunami height along the Russian and Turkish coast ais found. In particular, the tsunami amplification near Sochi is highest to compare with other coastal locations on the Russian coast of Black Sea.

  13. Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

  14. Isospin splittings of baryons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga, Kalman; Genovese, Marco; Richard, Jean-Marc; Silvestre-Brac, Bernard

    1998-01-01

    We discuss the isospin-breaking mass differences among baryons, with particular attention in the charm sector to the Σ c + -Σ c 0 , Σ c ++ -Σ c 0 , and Ξ c + -Ξ c 0 splittings. Simple potential models cannot accommodate the trend of the available data on charm baryons. More precise measurements would offer the possibility of testing how well potential models describe the non-perturbative limit of QCD

  15. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  16. Tsunamis: Detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.

    upon, which are relevant to tsunami warning, include public announcement siren systems and numerical models. Special attention has been paid to the submarine cable-mounted systems. Due importance has been attached to the instrumented era which... of appropriate emergency measures. Whereas satellite-based reporting is one option, a simple and cost-effective methodology for real-time reporting of tsunami from coastal regions and islands is cellular based GPRS technology. From an operational point...

  17. Splitting turbulence algorithm for mixing parameterization embedded in the ocean climate model. Examples of data assimilation and Prandtl number variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonkin, Sergey; Gusev, Anatoly; Zalesny, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay

    2017-04-01

    Series of experiments were performed with a three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM) using vertical grid refinement in the zone of fully developed turbulence (40 sigma-levels). The model variables are horizontal velocity components, potential temperature, and salinity as well as free surface height. For parameterization of viscosity and diffusivity, the original splitting turbulence algorithm (STA) is used when total evolutionary equations for the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulence dissipation frequency (TDF) split into the stages of transport-diffusion and generation-dissipation. For the generation-dissipation stage the analytical solution was obtained for TKE and TDF as functions of the buoyancy and velocity shift frequencies (BF and VSF). The proposed model with STA is similar to the contemporary differential turbulence models, concerning the physical formulations. At the same time, its algorithm has high enough computational efficiency. For mixing simulation in the zone of turbulence decay, the two kind numerical experiments were carried out, as with assimilation of annual mean climatic buoyancy frequency, as with variation of Prandtl number function dependence upon the BF, VSF, TKE and TDF. The CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used for experiments. Quality of temperature T and salinity S structure simulation is estimated by the comparison of model monthly profiles T and S averaged for 1980-2009, with T and S monthly data from the World Ocean Atlas 2013. Form of coefficients in equations for TKE and TDF on the generation-dissipation stage makes it possible to assimilate annual mean climatic buoyancy frequency in a varying degree that cardinally improves adequacy of model results to climatic data in all analyzed model domain. The numerical experiments with modified

  18. Model and analysis of solar thermal generators to reduce the intermittency of photovoltaic systems with the use of spectrum splitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Silvana; Wu, Yuechen; Vorndran, Shelby; Santiago, Raphael P.; Kostuk, Raymond K.

    2015-09-01

    In this paper we introduce an approach to damping intermittency in photovoltaic (PV) system output due to fluctuations in solar illumination generated by use of a hybrid PV-thermal electric (TE) generation system. We describe the necessary constrains of the PV-TE system based on its thermodynamic characteristics. The basis for the approach is that the thermal time constant for the TE device is much longer than that of a PV cell. When used in combination with an optimized thermal storage device short periods of intermittency (several minutes) in PV output due to passing clouds can be compensated. A comparison of different spectrum splitting systems to efficiently utilize the incident solar spectrum between the PV and TE converters are also examined. The time-dependent behavior of a hybrid PV-TE converter with a thermal storage element is computed with SMARTS modeled irradiance data and compared to real weather and irradiation conditions for Tucson, Arizona.

  19. About one discrete model of splitting by the physical processes of a piezoconductive medium with gas hydrate inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveshchenko, Yu A.; Podryga, V. O.; Rahimly, P. I.; Sharova, Yu S.

    2018-01-01

    The thermodynamically equilibrium model for splitting by the physical processes of a two-component three-phase filtration fluid dynamics with gas hydrate inclusions is considered in the paper, for which a family of two-layer completely conservative difference schemes of the support operators method with time weights profiled in space is constructed. On the irregular grids of the theory of the support-operators method applied to the specifics of the processes of transfer of saturations and internal energies of water and gas in a medium with gas hydrate inclusions, methods of directwind approximation of these processes are considered. These approximations preserve the continual properties of divergence-gradient operations in their difference form and are related to the velocity field providing saturations transfer and internal energies of fluids. Fluid dynamics with gas hydrate inclusions are also calculated on the basis of the proposed approach, in particular, in areas of severe pressure depression in the collector space.

  20. The search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California: Chapter C in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Jaffe, Bruce; Richmond, Bruce; Peters, Robert; Graehl, Nick; Kelsey, Harvey; Leeper, Robert; Watt, Steve; McGann, Mary; Hoirup, Don F.; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Caldwell, Dylan; Loofbourrow, Casey

    2014-01-01

    A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numerical tsunami modeling results identify the eastern Aleutian Islands subduction zone as the “worstcase” distant-source region, with the potential for causing tsunami runups of 7–10 m in northern and central California and 3–4 m in southern California. These model results, along with a review of historical topographic maps and past geotechnical evaluations, guided site selection for tsunami deposit surveys. A reconnaissance of 20 coastal marshlands was performed through site visits and coring of shallow surface sediments to determine if evidence for past tsunamis existed. Although conclusive evidence of tsunami deposits was not found at most of the sites evaluated, geologic evidence consistent with tsunami inundation was found at two locations: Three marshes in the Crescent City area and Pillar Point marsh near Half Moon Bay. Potential tsunami deposits were also evaluated at the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve in Santa Barbara County. In Crescent City, deposits were ascribed to tsunamis on the basis of stratigraphic architecture, particle size, and microfossil content, and they were further assigned to the 1964 Alaska and 1700 Cascadia tsunamis on the basis of dating by cesium-137 and radiocarbon methods, respectively. The 1946 tsunami sand deposit was clearly identified throughout Pillar Point marsh, and one to two other similar but highly discontinuous sand layers were present within 0.5 m of the surface. A tsunami-origin interpretation for sand layers at Carpinteria is merely consistent with graded bedding and unsupported by diatom or foraminiferal assemblages

  1. Combined modal split and assignment model for the multimodal transportation network of the economic circle in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. Li

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic circles have been formed and developing in China. An economic circle consists of more than one closely adjoining central cities and their influence zones. It is always the major engine for the development of one country’s economy and even for the world economy. A combined modal split and assignment model with deterministic travel demand is proposed for modelling passengers’ choices of intercity bus and train which are two main competing modes in the multimodal transportation network of the economic circle. The generalized travel cost model of highway and railway are used incorporating travel time, ticket fare and passenger’s discomfort. On the highway network, the interactions of private vehicles and intercity buses are asymmetric. Thus, a variational inequality formulation is proposed to describe the combined model. The streamlined diagonalization algorithm is presented to solve the combined model. The multimodal transportation network based on Yangtze River Delta economic circle is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show the efficiency of the proposed model.

  2. Improved continuum lowering calculations in screened hydrogenic model with l-splitting for high energy density systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Amjad; Shabbir Naz, G.; Saleem Shahzad, M.; Kouser, R.; Aman-ur-Rehman; Nasim, M. H.

    2018-03-01

    The energy states of the bound electrons in high energy density systems (HEDS) are significantly affected due to the electric field of the neighboring ions. Due to this effect bound electrons require less energy to get themselves free and move into the continuum. This phenomenon of reduction in potential is termed as ionization potential depression (IPD) or the continuum lowering (CL). The foremost parameter to depict this change is the average charge state, therefore accurate modeling for CL is imperative in modeling atomic data for computation of radiative and thermodynamic properties of HEDS. In this paper, we present an improved model of CL in the screened hydrogenic model with l-splitting (SHML) proposed by G. Faussurier and C. Blancard, P. Renaudin [High Energy Density Physics 4 (2008) 114] and its effect on average charge state. We propose the level charge dependent calculation of CL potential energy and inclusion of exchange and correlation energy in SHML. By doing this, we made our model more relevant to HEDS and free from CL empirical parameter to the plasma environment. We have implemented both original and modified model of SHML in our code named OPASH and benchmark our results with experiments and other state-of-the-art simulation codes. We compared our results of average charge state for Carbon, Beryllium, Aluminum, Iron and Germanium against published literature and found a very reasonable agreement between them.

  3. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  4. TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Theilen-Willige

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency planning for the assessment of tsunami hazard inundation and of secondary effects of erosion and landslides, requires mapping that can help identify coastal areas that are potentially vulnerable. The present study reviews tsunami susceptibility mapping for coastal areas of Turkey and Greece in the Aegean Sea. Potential tsunami vulnerable locations were identified from LANDSAT ETM imageries, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 data and QuickBird imageries and from a GIS integrated spatial database. LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the SRTM-Mission were investigated to help detect traces of past flooding events. LANDSAT ETM imageries, merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data, clearly indicate the areas that may be prone to flooding if catastrophic tsunami events or storm surges occur.

  5. Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Mück, M.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Taubenböck, H.; Strunz, G.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    besides others play a role. An attempt to quantify this variable under high uncertainty is also presented. Quantifying ET is based on a GIS modelling using a Cost Weighted Distance approach. Basic principle is to define the best evacuation path from a given point to the next safe area (shelter location). Here the fastest path from that point to the shelter location has to be found. Thereby the impact of land cover, slope, population density, population age and gender distribution are taken into account as literature studies prove these factors as highly important. Knowing the fastest path and the distance to the next safe area together with a spatially distributed pattern of evacuation speed delivers the time needed from each location to a safe area. By considering now the obtained time value for RsT the coverage area of an evacuation target point (safe area) can be assigned. Incorporating knowledge on people capacity of an evacuation target point the respective coverage area is refined. Hence areas with weak, moderate and good human response capabilities can be detected. This allows calculation of potential amount of people affected (dead or injured) and amount of people dislocated. First results for Kuta (Bali) for a worst case tsunami event deliver people affected of approx. 25 000 when RT = 0 minutes (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning to 120 000 when RT > ETA (no evacuation action until tsunami hits the land). Additionally fastest evacuation routes to the evacuation target points can be assigned. Areas with weak response capabilities can be assigned as priority areas to install e.g. additional evacuation target points or to increase tsunami knowledge and awareness to promote a faster reaction time. Especially in analyzing underlying socio-economic properties causing deficiencies in responding to a tsunami threat can lead to valuable information and direct planning of adaptation measures. Keywords: Community level, Risk and vulnerability assessment

  6. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  7. A Probabilistic and Observation Based Methodology to Estimate Small Craft Harbor Vulnerability to Tsunami Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, A. S.; Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.

    2016-12-01

    Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft marinas in California has become an important concern. The talk will outline an assessment tool which can be used to assess the tsunami hazard to small craft harbors. The methodology is based on the demand and structural capacity of the floating dock system, composed of floating docks/fingers and moored vessels. The structural demand is determined using a Monte Carlo methodology. Monte Carlo methodology is a probabilistic computational tool where the governing might be well known, but the independent variables of the input (demand) as well as the resisting structural components (capacity) may not be completely known. The Monte Carlo approach uses a distribution of each variable, and then uses that random variable within the described parameters, to generate a single computation. The process then repeats hundreds or thousands of times. The numerical model "Method of Splitting Tsunamis" (MOST) has been used to determine the inputs for the small craft harbors within California. Hydrodynamic model results of current speed, direction and surface elevation were incorporated via the drag equations to provide the bases of the demand term. To determine the capacities, an inspection program was developed to identify common features of structural components. A total of six harbors have been inspected ranging from Crescent City in Northern California to Oceanside Harbor in Southern California. Results from the inspection program were used to develop component capacity tables which incorporated the basic specifications of each component (e.g. bolt size and configuration) and a reduction factor (which accounts for the component reduction in capacity with age) to estimate in situ capacities. Like the demand term, these capacities are added probabilistically into the model. To date the model has been applied to Santa Cruz Harbor as well as Noyo River. Once

  8. Modeling, simulation, and fabrication of a fully integrated, acid-stable, scalable solar-driven water-splitting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walczak, Karl; Chen, Yikai; Karp, Christoph; Beeman, Jeffrey W; Shaner, Matthew; Spurgeon, Joshua; Sharp, Ian D; Amashukeli, Xenia; West, William; Jin, Jian; Lewis, Nathan S; Xiang, Chengxiang

    2015-02-01

    A fully integrated solar-driven water-splitting system comprised of WO3 /FTO/p(+) n Si as the photoanode, Pt/TiO2 /Ti/n(+) p Si as the photocathode, and Nafion as the membrane separator, was simulated, assembled, operated in 1.0 M HClO4 , and evaluated for performance and safety characteristics under dual side illumination. A multi-physics model that accounted for the performance of the photoabsorbers and electrocatalysts, ion transport in the solution electrolyte, and gaseous product crossover was first used to define the optimal geometric design space for the system. The photoelectrodes and the membrane separators were then interconnected in a louvered design system configuration, for which the light-absorbing area and the solution-transport pathways were simultaneously optimized. The performance of the photocathode and the photoanode were separately evaluated in a traditional three-electrode photoelectrochemical cell configuration. The photocathode and photoanode were then assembled back-to-back in a tandem configuration to provide sufficient photovoltage to sustain solar-driven unassisted water-splitting. The current-voltage characteristics of the photoelectrodes showed that the low photocurrent density of the photoanode limited the overall solar-to-hydrogen (STH) conversion efficiency due to the large band gap of WO3 . A hydrogen-production rate of 0.17 mL hr(-1) and a STH conversion efficiency of 0.24 % was observed in a full cell configuration for >20 h with minimal product crossover in the fully operational, intrinsically safe, solar-driven water-splitting system. The solar-to-hydrogen conversion efficiency, ηSTH , calculated using the multiphysics numerical simulation was in excellent agreement with the experimental behavior of the system. The value of ηSTH was entirely limited by the performance of the photoelectrochemical assemblies employed in this study. The louvered design provides a robust platform for implementation of various types of

  9. Finite Element Modeling of Compressive and Splitting Tensile Behavior of Plain Concrete and Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete Cylinder Specimens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Arman Chowdhury

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Plain concrete and steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC cylinder specimens are modeled in the finite element (FE platform of ANSYS 10.0 and validated with the experimental results and failure patterns. Experimental investigations are conducted to study the increase in compressive and tensile capacity of cylindrical specimens made of stone and brick concrete and SFRC. Satisfactory compressive and tensile capacity improvement is observed by adding steel fibers of 1.5% volumetric ratio. A total of 8 numbers of cylinder specimens are cast and tested in 1000 kN capacity digital universal testing machine (UTM and also modeled in ANSYS. The enhancement of compressive strength and splitting tensile strength of SFRC specimen is achieved up to 17% and 146%, respectively, compared to respective plain concrete specimen. Results gathered from finite element analyses are validated with the experimental test results by identifying as well as optimizing the controlling parameters to make FE models. Modulus of elasticity, Poisson’s ratio, stress-strain behavior, tensile strength, density, and shear transfer coefficients for open and closed cracks are found to be the main governing parameters for successful model of plain concrete and SFRC in FE platform. After proper evaluation and logical optimization of these parameters by extensive analyses, finite element (FE models showed a good correlation with the experimental results.

  10. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support

  11. Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

    2018-03-01

    Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

  12. Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

    2018-04-01

    Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

  13. Evaluation of Tsunami-HySEA for tsunami forecasting at selected locations in U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Ortega, S.; Castro, M. J.; de la Asuncion, M.; Arcas, D.

    2017-12-01

    The GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA model (Macias, J. et al., Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1-37, 2017, Lynett, P. et al., Ocean modeling, 114, 2017) is used to test four tsunami events: the January, 13, 2007 earthquake in Kuril islands (Mw 8.1), the September, 29, 2009 earthquake in Samoa (Mw 8.3), the February, 27, 2010 earthquake in Chile (Mw 9.8) and the March, 11, 2011 earthquake in Tohoku (Mw 9.0). Initial conditions have been provided by NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) obtained from DART inversion results. All simulations have been performed using a global 4 arc-min grid of the Ocean Pacific and three nested-meshes levels around the selected locations. Wave amplitudes time series have been computed at selected tide gauges located at each location and maximum amplitudes compared with both MOST model results and observations where they are available. In addition, inundation also has been computed at selected U.S. locations for the 2011 Tohoku and 2009 Samoa events under the assumption of a steady mean high water level. Finally, computational time is also evaluated in order to study the operational capabilities of Tsunami-HySEA for these kind of events. Ackowledgements: This work has been funded by WE133R16SE1418 contract between PMEL (NOAA) and the Universidad de Málaga (Spain).

  14. Assessment of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard at a power plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the tsunami hazard due to submarine earthquakes at a power plant site on the east coast of India. The paper considers various sources of earthquakes from the tectonic information, and records of past earthquakes and tsunamis. Magnitude-frequency relationship for earthquake occurrence rate and a simplified model for tsunami run-up height as a function of earthquake magnitude and the distance between the source and site have been developed. Finally, considering equal likelihood of generation of earthquakes anywhere on each of the faults, the tsunami hazard has been evaluated and presented as a relationship between tsunami height and its mean recurrence interval (MRI). Probability of exceedence of a certain wave height in a given period of time is also presented. These studies will be helpful in making an estimate of the tsunami-induced flooding potential at the site

  15. Unusually large tsunamis frequent a currently creeping part of the Aleutian megathrust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witter, Robert C.; Carver, G.A.; Briggs, Richard; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Koehler, R.D.; La Selle, SeanPaul M.; Bender, Adrian M.; Engelhart, S.E.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Hill, Troy D.

    2016-01-01

    Current models used to assess earthquake and tsunami hazards are inadequate where creep dominates a subduction megathrust. Here we report geological evidence for large tsunamis, occurring on average every 300–340 years, near the source areas of the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis. These areas bookend a postulated seismic gap over 200 km long where modern geodetic measurements indicate that the megathrust is currently creeping. At Sedanka Island, evidence for large tsunamis includes six sand sheets that blanket a lowland facing the Pacific Ocean, rise to 15 m above mean sea level, contain marine diatoms, cap terraces, adjoin evidence for scour, and date from the past 1700 years. The youngest sheet, and modern drift logs found as far as 800 m inland and >18 m elevation, likely record the 1957 tsunami. Modern creep on the megathrust coexists with previously unrecognized tsunami sources along this part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone.

  16. Proposal of evaluation method of tsunami wave pressure using 2D depth-integrated flow simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arimitsu, Tsuyoshi; Ooe, Kazuya; Kawasaki, Koji

    2012-01-01

    To design and construct land structures resistive to tsunami force, it is most essential to evaluate tsunami pressure quantitatively. The existing hydrostatic formula, in general, tended to underestimate tsunami wave pressure under the condition of inundation flow with large Froude number. Estimation method of tsunami pressure acting on a land structure was proposed using inundation depth and horizontal velocity at the front of the structure, which were calculated employing a 2D depth-integrated flow model based on the unstructured grid system. The comparison between the numerical and experimental results revealed that the proposed method could reasonably reproduce the vertical distribution of the maximum tsunami pressure as well as the time variation of the tsunami pressure exerting on the structure. (author)

  17. (O)Mega split

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benakli, Karim; Darmé, Luc; Goodsell, Mark D. [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, UMR 7589,LPTHE, F-75005, Paris (France); CNRS, UMR 7589,LPTHE, F-75005, Paris (France)

    2015-11-16

    We study two realisations of the Fake Split Supersymmetry Model (FSSM), the simplest model that can easily reproduce the experimental value of the Higgs mass for an arbitrarily high supersymmetry scale M{sub S}, as a consequence of swapping higgsinos for equivalent states, fake higgsinos, with suppressed Yukawa couplings. If the LSP is identified as the main Dark matter component, then a standard thermal history of the Universe implies upper bounds on M{sub S}, which we derive. On the other hand, we show that renormalisation group running of soft masses aboveM{sub S} barely constrains the model — in stark contrast to Split Supersymmetry — and hence we can have a “Mega Split” spectrum even with all of these assumptions and constraints, which include the requirements of a correct relic abundance, a gluino life-time compatible with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and absence of signals in present direct detection experiments of inelastic dark matter. In an appendix we describe a related scenario, Fake Split Extended Supersymmetry, which enjoys similar properties.

  18. Theoretical modeling of a gas clearance phase regulation mechanism for a pneumatically-driven split-Stirling-cycle cryocooler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cun-quan; Zhong, Cheng

    2015-03-01

    The concept of a new type of pneumatically-driven split-Stirling-cycle cryocooler with clearance-phase-adjustor is proposed. In this implementation, the gap between the phase-adjusting part and the cylinder of the spring chamber is used, instead of dry friction acting on the pneumatically-driven rod to control motion damping of the displacer and to adjust the phase difference between the compression piston and displacer. It has the advantages of easy damping adjustment, low cost, and simplified manufacturing and assembly. A theoretical model has been established to simulate its dynamic performance. The linear compressor is modeled under adiabatic conditions, and the displacement of the compression piston is experimentally rectified. The working characteristics of the compressor motor and the principal losses of cooling, including regenerator inefficiency loss, solid conduction loss, shuttle loss, pump loss and radiation loss, are taken into account. The displacer motion was modeled as a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) forced system. A set of governing equations can be solved numerically to simulate the cooler's performance. The simulation is useful for understanding the physical processes occurring in the cooler and for predicting the cooler's performance.

  19. Nanoscale Optimization and Statistical Modeling of Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting Efficiency of N-Doped TiO2 Nanotubes

    KAUST Repository

    Isimjan, Tayirjan T.

    2014-12-19

    Highly ordered nitrogen-doped titanium dioxide (N-doped TiO2) nanotube array films with enhanced photo-electrochemical water splitting efficiency (PCE) for hydrogen generation were fabricated by electrochemical anodization, followed by annealing in a nitrogen atmosphere. Morphology, structure and composition of the N-doped TiO2 nanotube array films were investigated by FE-SEM, XPS, UV-Vis and XRD. The effect of annealing temperature, heating rate and annealing time on the morphology, structure, and photo-electrochemical property of the N-doped TiO2 nanotube array films were investigated. A design of experiments method was applied in order to minimize the number of experiments and obtain a statistical model for this system. From the modelling results, optimum values for the influential factors were obtained in order to achieve the maximum PCE. The optimized experiment resulted in 7.42 % PCE which was within 95 % confidence interval of the predicted value by the model. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media.

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  1. Numerical Study on the 1682 Tainan Historic Tsunami Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y.; Wu, T.; Lee, C.; KO, L.; Chuang, M.

    2013-12-01

    We intend to reconstruct the tsunami source of the 1682/1782 tsunami event in Tainan, Taiwan, based on the numerical method. According to Soloviev and Go (1974), a strong earthquake shook the Tainan and caused severe damage, followed by tsunami waves. Almost the whole island was flooded by tsunami for over 120 km. More than 40,000 inhabitants were killed. Forts Zealand and Pigchingi were washed away. 1682/1782 event was the highest death toll in the Pacific Ocean regarded by Bryant (2001). However, the year is ambiguous in 1682 or 1782, and death toll is doubtful. We tend to believe that this event was happened in 1682 based on the evolution of the harbor name. If the 1682 tsunami event does exist, the hazard mitigation plan has to be modified, and restoring the 1682 event becomes important. In this study, we adopted the tsunami reverse tracking method (TRTM) to examine the possible tsunami sources. A series of numerical simulations were carried out by using COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model), and nested grid with 30 m resolution was applied to the study area. According to the result of TRTM, the 1682 tsunami is most likely sourcing from the north segment of Manila Trench. From scenario study, we concluded that the 1682 event was triggered by an Mw >= 8.8 earthquake in north segment of Manila Trench, and 4 m wave height was observed in Tainan and its inundation range is agreeable with historical records. If this scenario occurred again, sever damage and death toll will be seen many high population cities, such as Tainan city, Kaohsiung city and Kenting, where No. 3 nuclear power plant is located. Detailed results will be presented in the full paper. Figure 1. Map of Tsunami Reverse Tracking Method (TRTM) in Tainan. Black arrow indicates direction of possible tsunami direction. The color bar denotes the magnitude of the maximum moment flux. Figure 2. Scenario result of Mw 8.8 in northern segment of Manila Trench. (Left: Initial free surface elevation

  2. Numerical simulation of the 2002 Northern Rhodes Slide (Greece) and evaluation of the generated tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaniboni, Filippo; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Small landslides are very common along the submarine margins, due to steep slopes and continuous material deposition that increment mass instability and supply collapse occurrences, even without earthquake triggering. This kind of events can have relevant consequences when occurring close to the coast, because they are characterized by sudden change of velocity and relevant speed achievement, reflecting into high tsunamigenic potential. This is the case for example of the slide of Rhodes Island (Greece), named Northern Rhodes Slide (NRS), where unusual 3-4 m waves were registered on 24 March 2002, provoking some damage in the coastal stretch of the city of Rhodes (Papadopoulos et al., 2007). The event was not associated with earthquake occurrence, and eyewitnesses supported the hypothesis of a non-seismic source for the tsunami, placed 1 km offshore. Subsequent marine geophysical surveys (Sakellariou et al., 2002) evidenced the presence of several detachment niches at about 300-400 m depth along the northern steep slope, one of which can be considered responsible of the observed tsunami, fitting with the previously mentioned supposition. In this work, that is carried out in the frame of the European funded project NearToWarn, we evaluated the tsunami effects due to the NRS by means of numerical modelling: after having reconstructed the sliding body basing on morphological assumptions (obtaining an esteemed volume of 33 million m3), we simulated the sliding motion through the in-house built code UBO-BLOCK1, adopting a Lagrangian approach and splitting the sliding mass into a "chain" of interacting blocks. This provides the complete dynamics of the landslide, including the shape changes that relevantly influence the tsunami generation. After the application of an intermediate code, accounting for the slide impulse filtering through the water depth, the tsunami propagation in the sea around the island of Rhodes and up to near coasts of Turkey was simulated via the

  3. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

    2009-01-01

    The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. The DFT-DVM theoretical study of the differences of quadrupole splitting and the iron electronic structure for the rough heme models for {alpha}- and {beta}-subunits in deoxyhemoglobin and for deoxymyoglobin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuryeva, E. I. [Institute of Solid State Chemistry of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian Federation); Oshtrakh, M. I., E-mail: oshtrakh@mail.utnet.ru [Ural State Technical University-UPI, Faculty of Physical Techniques and Devices for Quality Control (Russian Federation)

    2008-01-15

    Quantum chemical calculations of the iron electron structure and {sup 57}Fe quadrupole splitting were made by density functional theory and X{alpha} discrete variation method for the rough heme models for {alpha}- and {beta}-subunits in deoxyhemoglobin and for deoxymyoglobin accounting stereochemical differences of the active sites in native proteins. The calculations revealed differences of quadrupole splitting temperature dependences for three models indicating sensitivity of quadrupole splitting and Fe(II) electronic structure to small variations of iron stereochemistry.

  5. Split warhead simultaneous impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Singh Dhari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A projectile system is proposed to improve efficiency and effectiveness of damage done by anti-tank weapon system on its target by designing a ballistic projectile that can split into multiple warheads and engage a target at the same time. This idea has been developed in interest of saving time consumed from the process of reloading and additional number of rounds wasted on target during an attack. The proposed system is achieved in three steps: Firstly, a mathematical model is prepared using the basic equations of motion. Second, An Ejection Mechanism of proposed warhead is explained with the help of schematics. Third, a part of numerical simulation which is done using the MATLAB software. The final result shows various ranges and times when split can be effectively achieved. With the new system, impact points are increased and hence it has a better probability of hitting a target.

  6. Hydro- and morphodynamic tsunami simulations for the Ambrakian Gulf (Greece) and comparison with geoscientific field traces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röbke, B. R.; Schüttrumpf, H.; Vött, A.

    2018-04-01

    In order to derive local tsunami risks for a particular coast, hydro- and morphodynamic numerical models that are calibrated and compared with sedimentary field data of past tsunami impacts have proven very effective. While this approach has widely been used with regard to recent tsunami events, comparable investigations into pre-/historical tsunami impacts hardly exist, which is the objective of this study focusing on the Ambrakian Gulf in northwestern Greece. The Ambrakian Gulf is located in the most active seismotectonic and by this most tsunamigenic area of the Mediterranean. Accordingly, palaeotsunami field studies have revealed repeated tsunami impacts on the gulf during the past 8000 yr. The current study analyses 151 vibracores of the Ambrakian Gulf coast in order to evaluate tsunami signals in the sedimentary record. Based on a hydro- and morphodynamic numerical model of the study area, various tsunami waves are simulated with the aim of finding scenarios that compare favourably with tsunami deposits detected in the field. Both, field data and simulation results suggest a decreasing tsunami influence from the western to the eastern Ambrakian Gulf. Various scenarios are needed to explain tsunami deposits in different parts of the gulf. Whereas shorter period tsunami waves (T = 30 min) from the south and west compare favourably with field data in the western gulf, longer period waves (T = 80 min) from a western direction show the best agreement with tsunami sediments detected in southwestern Aktio Headland and in the more central parts of the Ambrakian Gulf including Lake Voulkaria. Tsunamis from the southwest generally do not accord with field traces. Besides the spatial sediment distribution, the numerical model accurately reflects the sedimentary composition of the detected event deposits and reproduces a number of essential features typical of tsunamites, which were also observed in the field. Such include fining- and thinning-landward and the marine

  7. Study on tsunami due to offshore earthquakes for Korea coast. Literature survey and numerical simulation on earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea and the East China Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuyama, Masafumi; Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Inoue, Daiei; Choi, Weon-Hack; Kang, Keum-Seok

    2008-01-01

    In Korea, there has been a concern on tsumami risks for the Nuclear Power Plants since the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake tsunami. The maximum run-up height reached 4 m to north of the Ulchin nuclear power plant site. The east coast of Korea was also attacked by a few meters high tsunami generated by the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake. Both source areas of them were in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, which remains another tsunami potential. Therefore it is necessary to study tsunami risks for coast of Korea by means of geological investigation and numerical simulation. Historical records of earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea were re-compiled to evaluate tsunami potential. A database of marine active faults in the Japan Sea was compiled to decide a regional potential of tsunami. Many developed reverse faults are found in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea. The authors have found no historical earthquake in the East China Sea which caused tunami observed at coast of Korea. Therefore five fault models were determined on the basis of the analysis results of historical records and recent research results of fault parameter and tunami. Tsunami heights were estimated by numerical simulation of nonlinear dispersion wave theory. The results of the simulations indicate that the tsunami heights in these cases are less than 0.25 m along the coast of Korea, and the tsunami risk by these assumed faults does not lead to severe impact. It is concluded that tsunami occurred in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea leads the most significant impact to Korea consequently. (author)

  8. Landslide Tsunami Hazard in Madeira Island, NE Atlantic - Numerical Simulation of the 4 March 1930 Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Quartau, R.; Ramalho, M. I.

    2017-12-01

    Madeira, the main Island of the Madeira Archipelago with an area of 728 km2, is a North East Atlantic volcanic Island highly susceptible to cliff instability. Historical records contain accounts of a number of mass-wasting events along the Island, namely in 1969, 1804, 1929 and 1930. Collapses of cliffs are major hazards in oceanic Islands as they involve relatively large volumes of material, generating fast running debris avalanches, and even cause destructive tsunamis when entering the sea. On March 4th, 1930, a sector of the Cape Girão cliff, located in the southern shore of Madeira Island, collapsed into the sea and generated an 8 m tsunami wave height. The landslide-induced tsunami propagated along Madeirás south coast and flooded the Vigário beach, 200-300 m of inundation extent, causing 20 casualties. In this study, we investigate the 1930 subaerial landslide-induced tsunami and its impact on the nearest coasts using numerical modelling. We first reconstruct the pre-event morphology of the area, and then simulate the initial movement of the sliding mass, the propagation of the tsunami wave and the inundation of the coast. We use a multi-layer numerical model, in which the lower layer represents the deformable slide, assumed to be a visco-plastic fluid, and bounded above by air, in the subaerial motion phase, and by seawater governed by shallow water equations. The results of the simulation are compared with the historical descriptions of the event to calibrate the numerical model and evaluate the coastal impact of a similar event in present-day coastline configuration of the Island. This work is supported by FCT- project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz and by TROYO project.

  9. Unraveling the tectonic history of northwest Africa: Insights from shear-wave splitting, receiver functions, and geodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. S.; Becker, T. W.; Allam, A. A.; Alpert, L. A.; Di Leo, J. F.; Wookey, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    The complex tectonic history and orogenesis in the westernmost Mediterranean are primarily due to Cenozoic convergence of Africa with Eurasia. The Gibraltar system, which includes the Rif Mountains of Morocco and the Betics in Spain, forms a tight arc around the Alboran Basin. Further to the south the Atlas Mountains of Morocco, an example of an intracontinental fold and thrust belt, display only modest tectonic shortening, yet have unusually high topography. To the south of the Atlas, the anti-Atlas is the oldest mountain range in the region, has the lowest relief, and extends toward the northern extent of the West African Craton. To help unravel the regional tectonics, we use new broadband seismic data from 105 stations across the Gibraltar arc into southern Morocco. We use shear wave splitting analysis for a deep (617 km) local S event and over 230 SKS events to infer azimuthal seismic anisotropy and we image the lithospheric structure with receiver functions. One of the most striking discoveries from these methods is evidence for localized, near vertical-offset deformation of both crust-mantle and lithosphere-asthenosphere interfaces at the flanks of the High Atlas. These offsets coincide with the locations of Jurassic-aged normal faults that were reactivated during the Cenozoic. This suggests that these lithospheric-scale discontinuities were involved in the formation of the Atlas and are still active. Shear wave splitting results show that the inferred stretching axes are aligned with the highest topography in the Atlas, suggesting asthenospheric shearing in mantle flow guided by lithospheric topography. Geodynamic modeling shows that the inferred seismic anisotropy may be produced by the interaction of mantle flow with the subducted slab beneath the Alboran, the West African Craton, and the thinned lithosphere beneath the Atlas. Isostatic modeling based on these lithospheric structure estimates indicates that lithospheric thinning alone does not explain the

  10. Nanoscale Optimization and Statistical Modeling of Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting Efficiency of N-Doped TiO2 Nanotubes

    KAUST Repository

    Isimjan, Tayirjan T.; Trifkovic, Milana; Abdullahi, Inusa; Rohani, Sohrab M F; Ray, Ajay

    2014-01-01

    Highly ordered nitrogen-doped titanium dioxide (N-doped TiO2) nanotube array films with enhanced photo-electrochemical water splitting efficiency (PCE) for hydrogen generation were fabricated by electrochemical anodization, followed by annealing

  11. Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2012-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

  12. Time-dependent onshore tsunami response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apotsos, Alex; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2012-01-01

    While bulk measures of the onshore impact of a tsunami, including the maximum run-up elevation and inundation distance, are important for hazard planning, the temporal evolution of the onshore flow dynamics likely controls the extent of the onshore destruction and the erosion and deposition of sediment that occurs. However, the time-varying dynamics of actual tsunamis are even more difficult to measure in situ than the bulk parameters. Here, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations is used to examine the effects variations in the wave characteristics, bed slope, and bottom roughness have on the temporal evolution of the onshore flow. Model results indicate that the onshore flow dynamics vary significantly over the parameter space examined. For example, the flow dynamics over steep, smooth morphologies tend to be temporally symmetric, with similar magnitude velocities generated during the run-up and run-down phases of inundation. Conversely, on shallow, rough onshore topographies the flow dynamics tend to be temporally skewed toward the run-down phase of inundation, with the magnitude of the flow velocities during run-up and run-down being significantly different. Furthermore, for near-breaking tsunami waves inundating over steep topography, the flow velocity tends to accelerate almost instantaneously to a maximum and then decrease monotonically. Conversely, when very long waves inundate over shallow topography, the flow accelerates more slowly and can remain steady for a period of time before beginning to decelerate. These results indicate that a single set of assumptions concerning the onshore flow dynamics cannot be applied to all tsunamis, and site specific analyses may be required.

  13. Analog modeling of splitting the envelope of an electromagnetic pulse reflected from a plasma layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakunov, M.I.; Rogozhin, I.Yu.

    1997-01-01

    By means of a simple radio engineering model, an experimental study is carried out of the effect of the strong deformation of the envelope of a quasimonochromatic electromagnetic pulse reflected from a thin plasma layer placed on the surface of an ideal conductor. This deformation is considered under the conditions of the plasma resonance in the plasma layer and when the thickness of the layer is less then the wavelength of the incident radiation. It is shown that the pulse whose initial profile is Gaussian, after the reflection, is separated (entirely of partially) into two pulses with amplitudes that can be controlled by means of varying the parameters of the incident pulse and plasma layer

  14. Symmetric splitting of very light systems in the coalescence and reseparation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blocki, J.; Grotowski, K.; Planeta, R.; Swiatecki, W.J.

    1985-01-01

    This is theoretical study stimulated by recent experiments at the 88-Inch Cyclotron on the binary decay of the light composite systems 46 V, 49 Cr and 52 Fe produced in collisions of 6 Li, 9 Be, and 12 C with 40 C. The dynamics of the collision is followed using the chaotic regime idealization (Liquid-Drop potential energy, wall-and-window dissipation and Werner-Wheeler inertia). Parametrization of the nuclear shapes and angular momentum are included. According to the model calculations, the decay of these systems is predicted to be the result of the fission of a rotating super-deformed configuration. The calculations suggest an angular momentum window for this type of reaction between about 30 Planck's Constant and 43 Planck's Constant. The relevant saddle-point configurations are close to scission and there is relatively little damping before fission

  15. Triadic split-merge sampler

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rossum, Anne C.; Lin, Hai Xiang; Dubbeldam, Johan; van der Herik, H. Jaap

    2018-04-01

    In machine vision typical heuristic methods to extract parameterized objects out of raw data points are the Hough transform and RANSAC. Bayesian models carry the promise to optimally extract such parameterized objects given a correct definition of the model and the type of noise at hand. A category of solvers for Bayesian models are Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Naive implementations of MCMC methods suffer from slow convergence in machine vision due to the complexity of the parameter space. Towards this blocked Gibbs and split-merge samplers have been developed that assign multiple data points to clusters at once. In this paper we introduce a new split-merge sampler, the triadic split-merge sampler, that perform steps between two and three randomly chosen clusters. This has two advantages. First, it reduces the asymmetry between the split and merge steps. Second, it is able to propose a new cluster that is composed out of data points from two different clusters. Both advantages speed up convergence which we demonstrate on a line extraction problem. We show that the triadic split-merge sampler outperforms the conventional split-merge sampler. Although this new MCMC sampler is demonstrated in this machine vision context, its application extend to the very general domain of statistical inference.

  16. Preliminary numerical simulations of the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami: first results and hints in a tsunami early warning perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia

    2010-05-01

    The tsunamigenic earthquake (M 8.8) that occurred offshore central Chile on 27 February 2010 can be classified as a typical subduction-zone earthquake. The effects of the ensuing tsunami have been devastating along the Chile coasts, and especially between the cities of Valparaiso and Talcahuano, and in the Juan Fernandez islands. The tsunami propagated across the entire Pacific Ocean, hitting with variable intensity almost all the coasts facing the basin. While the far-field propagation was quite well tracked almost in real-time by the warning centres and reasonably well reproduced by the forecast models, the toll of lives and the severity of the damage caused by the tsunami in the near-field occurred with no local alert nor warning and sadly confirms that the protection of the communities placed close to the tsunami sources is still an unresolved problem in the tsunami early warning field. The purpose of this study is two-fold. On one side we perform numerical simulations of the tsunami starting from different earthquake models which we built on the basis of the preliminary seismic parameters (location, magnitude and focal mechanism) made available by the seismological agencies immediately after the event, or retrieved from more detailed and refined studies published online in the following days and weeks. The comparison with the available records of both offshore DART buoys and coastal tide-gauges is used to put some preliminary constraints on the best-fitting fault model. The numerical simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, which can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids. The second purpose of this study is to use the conclusions drawn in the previous part in a tsunami early warning perspective. In the framework of the EU-funded project DEWS (Distant Early Warning System), we will

  17. A Reverse Tracking Method to Analyze the 1867 Keelung Tsunami Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C.; Wu, T.; Tsai, Y.; KO, L.; Chuang, M.

    2013-12-01

    The 1867 Keelung tsunami is the only tsunami event verified by Taiwan government. This event caused serious damage and hundreds death toll in northern Taiwan, including the Keelung city, Jinshan and Patoutzu areas (Fig. 1). This event is not only recorded in many literatures, but also unveiled by sedimentary evidence. In addition, this event also indicates that the three nuclear power plants nearby are prone to tsunami attacks (Fig. 1). The previous studies consider that this tsunami might be generated by a Mw 7.0 earthquake which might occur along the Shanchiao Fault (Zheng et al, 2011). However, there is no evidence showing the relationship between these geological activities and the tsunami event. In this study, we intend to find the potential tsunami source through numerical analysis. We conducted series of numerical experiments by using sets of fault parameters from Mw 7.0 to Mw 8.0. However, none of them was able to explain the 7 m tsunami height observed in history and the sedimentary evidence found on the Hoping Island. Considering the steep bathymetry and intense volcanic activity along the Keelung coast, one reasonable hypothesis is that the earthquake or volcanic eruption triggered a submarine landslide which increased the tsunami height dramatically. In order to confirm this scenario, we performed the Reverse Tracking Method (RTM), based on the linear hypothesis of tsunami wave propagation, to find the possible locations of the tsunami sources (Fig. 1). The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was then used to perform the tsunami simulations. We followed the Mw 7.0 earthquake proposed by Lin et al. (2006) and added the landslide disturbance (Watts et al., 2005). The source-scaling relationship proposed by Yen and Ma (2011) was used to determine the fault parameters. In addition to the Shanchiao Fault, five submarine volcanos and three submarine canyons were considered as the potential tsunami sources. The result shows that the 1867 tsunami

  18. Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami-tide simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelby, Michael; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grilli, Annette R.

    2016-12-01

    This work is part of a tsunami inundation mapping activity carried out along the US East Coast since 2010, under the auspice of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program (NTHMP). The US East Coast features two main estuaries with significant tidal forcing, which are bordered by numerous critical facilities (power plants, major harbors,...) as well as densely built low-level areas: Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River Estuary (HRE). HRE is the object of this work, with specific focus on assessing tsunami hazard in Manhattan, the Hudson and East River areas. In the NTHMP work, inundation maps are computed as envelopes of maximum surface elevation along the coast and inland, by simulating the impact of selected probable maximum tsunamis (PMT) in the Atlantic ocean margin and basin. At present, such simulations assume a static reference level near shore equal to the local mean high water (MHW) level. Here, instead we simulate maximum inundation in the HRE resulting from dynamic interactions between the incident PMTs and a tide, which is calibrated to achieve MHW at its maximum level. To identify conditions leading to maximum tsunami inundation, each PMT is simulated for four different phases of the tide and results are compared to those obtained for a static reference level. We first separately simulate the tide and the three PMTs that were found to be most significant for the HRE. These are caused by: (1) a flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) in the Canary Islands (with a 80 km3 volume representing the most likely extreme scenario); (2) an M9 coseismic source in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT); and (3) a large submarine mass failure (SMF) in the Hudson River canyon of parameters similar to the 165 km3 historical Currituck slide, which is used as a local proxy for the maximum possible SMF. Simulations are performed with the nonlinear and dispersive long wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, in a series of nested grids of increasing resolution towards the coast, by one

  19. Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvan, David A.; Komjathy, Attila; Hickey, Michael; Foster, James; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2010-01-01

    Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.

  20. A Componentwise Convex Splitting Scheme for Diffuse Interface Models with Van der Waals and Peng--Robinson Equations of State

    KAUST Repository

    Fan, Xiaolin

    2017-01-19

    This paper presents a componentwise convex splitting scheme for numerical simulation of multicomponent two-phase fluid mixtures in a closed system at constant temperature, which is modeled by a diffuse interface model equipped with the Van der Waals and the Peng-Robinson equations of state (EoS). The Van der Waals EoS has a rigorous foundation in physics, while the Peng-Robinson EoS is more accurate for hydrocarbon mixtures. First, the phase field theory of thermodynamics and variational calculus are applied to a functional minimization problem of the total Helmholtz free energy. Mass conservation constraints are enforced through Lagrange multipliers. A system of chemical equilibrium equations is obtained which is a set of second-order elliptic equations with extremely strong nonlinear source terms. The steady state equations are transformed into a transient system as a numerical strategy on which the scheme is based. The proposed numerical algorithm avoids the indefiniteness of the Hessian matrix arising from the second-order derivative of homogeneous contribution of total Helmholtz free energy; it is also very efficient. This scheme is unconditionally componentwise energy stable and naturally results in unconditional stability for the Van der Waals model. For the Peng-Robinson EoS, it is unconditionally stable through introducing a physics-preserving correction term, which is analogous to the attractive term in the Van der Waals EoS. An efficient numerical algorithm is provided to compute the coefficient in the correction term. Finally, some numerical examples are illustrated to verify the theoretical results and efficiency of the established algorithms. The numerical results match well with laboratory data.

  1. Use of Advanced Tsunami Hazard Assessment Techniques and Tsunami Source Characterizations in U.S. and International Nuclear Regulatory Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammerer, A. M.; Godoy, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, as well as the anticipation of the submission of license applications for new nuclear facilities, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear power plants and other coastal facilities in the United States. To undertake this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program jointly undertaken with researchers at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. This study identified and modeled both seismic and landslide tsunamigenic sources in the near- and far-field. The results from this work are now being used directly as the basis for the review of tsunami hazard at potential nuclear plant sites. This application once again shows the importance that the earth sciences can play in addressing issues of importance to society. Because the Indian Ocean Tsunami was a global event, a number of cooperative international activities have also been initiated within the nuclear community. The results of US efforts are being incorporated into updated regulatory guidance for both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Coordinated efforts are underway to integrate state-of-the art tsunami warning tools developed by NOAA into NRC and IAEA activities. The goal of the warning systems project is to develop automated protocols that allow scientists at these agencies to have up-to-the minute user-specific information in hand shortly after a potential tsunami has been identified by the US Tsunami Warning System. Lastly, USGS and NOAA scientists are assisting the NRC and IAEA in a special Extra-Budgetary Program (IAEA EBP) on tsunami being coordinated by the IAEA’s International Seismic Safety

  2. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with Application to Tsunamigenic Regions in the Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smit, Ansie; Kijko, Andrzej; Stein, Alfred

    2017-08-01

    The paper presents a new method for empirical assessment of tsunami recurrence parameters, namely the mean tsunami activity rate λT, the Soloviev-Imamura frequency-magnitude power law bT-value, and the coastline-characteristic, maximum possible tsunami intensity i_{ max }. The three coastline-characteristic recurrence parameters are estimated locally by maximum likelihood techniques using only tsunami event catalogues. The method provides for incompleteness of the tsunami catalogue, uncertainty in the tsunami intensity determination, and uncertainty associated with the parameters in the applied tsunami occurrence models. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty is introduced in the tsunami models by means of the use of mixture distributions. Both the mean tsunami activity rate λT of the Poisson occurrence model, and the bT-value of the Soloviev-Imamura frequency-intensity power law are random variables. The proposed procedure was applied to estimate the probabilities of exceedance and return periods for tsunamis in the tsunamigenic regions of Japan, Kuril-Kamchatka, and South America.

  3. Lessons Learned and Unlearned from the 2004 Great Sumatran Tsunami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synolakis, C.; Kanoglu, U.

    2014-12-01

    Huppert & Sparks (2006 Phil Trans Math Phys Eng Sci) wrote It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster alone resulted in more than 20,000 casualties. Synolakis & Bernard (2006 Phil Trans Math Phys Eng Sci) concluded that Before the next Sumatra-type tsunami strikes, we must resolve to create a world that can coexist with the tsunami hazard. The 2011 Japan tsunami dramatically showed that we are not there yet. Despite substantial advances after the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, substantial challenges remain for improving tsunami hazard mitigation. If the tsunami community appeared at first perplexed in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami, it was not due to the failure of recognized hydrodynamic paradigms, much as certain geophysical ones and scaling laws failed, but at the worst surprise, the lack of preparedness and education. Synolakis et al. (2008 Pure Appl Geophys) presented standards for tsunami modeling; for both warnings and inundation maps (IMs). Although at least one forecasting methodology has gone through extensive testing, and is now officially in use by the warning centers (WCs), standards need urgently to be formalized for warnings. In Europe, several WCs have been established, but none has yet to issue an operational warning for a hazardous event. If it happens, there might be confusion with possibly contradictory/competing warnings. Never again should there be a repeat of the TEPCO analysis for the safety of the Fukushima NPP. This was primarily due to lacks of familiarity with the context of numerical predictions and experience with real tsunami. The accident was the result of a cascade of stupid errors, almost impossible to ignore by anyone in the field (Synolakis, 26.03.2011 The New York Times). Current practices in tsunami studies for US NPPs and for IMs do not provide us with optimism that the Fukushima lessons have been absorbed and that

  4. Preliminary Hazard Assessment for Tectonic Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, B.; Bayazitoglu, O.; Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

    2017-12-01

    There are many critical industrial facilities such as energy production units and energy transmission lines along the southeast coast of Turkey. This region is also active on tourism, and agriculture and aquaculture production. There are active faults in the region, i.e. the Cyprus Fault, which extends along the Mediterranean basin in the east-west direction and connects to the Hellenic Arc. Both the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc are seismologically active and are capable of generating earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. Even a small tsunami in the region could cause confusion as shown by the recent 21 July 2017 earthquake of Mw 6.6, which occurred in the Aegean Sea, between Bodrum, Turkey and Kos Island, Greece since region is not prepared for such an event. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable regions against sea level rise due to global warming, according to the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For these reasons, a marine hazard such as a tsunami can cause much worse damage than expected in the region (Kanoglu et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 2015). Hence, tsunami hazard assessment is required for the region. In this study, we first characterize earthquakes which have potential to generate a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such study is a prerequisite for regional tsunami mitigation studies. For fast and timely predictions, tsunami warning systems usually employ databases that store pre-computed tsunami propagation resulting from hypothetical earthquakes with pre-defined parameters. These pre-defined sources are called tsunami unit sources and they are linearly superposed to mimic a real event, since wave propagation is linear offshore. After investigating historical earthquakes along the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc, we identified tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and proposed tsunami unit sources for the region. We used the tsunami numerical model MOST (Titov et al

  5. New Approaches to Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Demonstrated in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priest, G. R.; Rizzo, A.; Madin, I.; Lyles Smith, R.; Stimely, L.

    2012-12-01

    Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and Oregon Emergency Management collaborated over the last four years to increase tsunami preparedness for residents and visitors to the Oregon coast. Utilizing support from the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP), new approaches to outreach and tsunami hazard assessment were developed and then applied. Hazard assessment was approached by first doing two pilot studies aimed at calibrating theoretical models to direct observations of tsunami inundation gleaned from the historical and prehistoric (paleoseismic/paleotsunami) data. The results of these studies were then submitted to peer-reviewed journals and translated into 1:10,000-12,000-scale inundation maps. The inundation maps utilize a powerful new tsunami model, SELFE, developed by Joseph Zhang at the Oregon Health & Science University. SELFE uses unstructured computational grids and parallel processing technique to achieve fast accurate simulation of tsunami interactions with fine-scale coastal morphology. The inundation maps were simplified into tsunami evacuation zones accessed as map brochures and an interactive mapping portal at http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/. Unique in the world are new evacuation maps that show separate evacuation zones for distant versus locally generated tsunamis. The brochure maps explain that evacuation time is four hours or more for distant tsunamis but 15-20 minutes for local tsunamis that are invariably accompanied by strong ground shaking. Since distant tsunamis occur much more frequently than local tsunamis, the two-zone maps avoid needless over evacuation (and expense) caused by one-zone maps. Inundation mapping for the entire Oregon coast will be complete by ~2014. Educational outreach was accomplished first by doing a pilot study to measure effectiveness of various approaches using before and after polling and then applying the most effective methods. In descending order, the most effective

  6. TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES PART 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert L. Wiegel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami Information Sources (Robert L. Wiegel, University of California, Berkeley, CA, UCB/HEL 2005-1, 14 December 2005, 115 pages, is available in printed format, and on a diskette. It is also available in electronic format at the Water Resources Center Archives, University of California, Berkeley, CA http:www.lib.berkeley.edu/WRCA/tsunamis.htmland in the International Journal of The Tsunami Society, Science of Tsunami Hazards (Vol. 24, No. 2, 2006, pp 58-171 at http://www.sthjournal.org/sth6.htm.This is Part 2 of the report. It has two components. They are: 1.(Sections A and B. Sources added since the first report, and corrections to a few listed in the first report. 2.(Sections C and D. References from both the first report and this report, listed in two categories:Section C. Planning and engineering design for tsunami mitigation/protection; adjustments to the hazard; damage to structures and infrastructureSection D. Tsunami propagation nearshore; induced oscillations; runup/inundation (flooding and drawdown.

  7. Tsunami hazard maps of spanish coast at national scale from seismic sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; González, Mauricio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; García, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Tsunamis are a moderately frequent phenomenon in the NEAM (North East Atlantic and Mediterranean) region, and consequently in Spain, as historic and recent events have affected this area. I.e., the 1755 earthquake and tsunami affected the Spanish Atlantic coasts of Huelva and Cadiz and the 2003 Boumerdés earthquake triggered a tsunami that reached Balearic island coast in less than 45 minutes. The risk in Spain is real and, its population and tourism rate makes it vulnerable to this kind of catastrophic events. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in Japan in 2011 launched the worldwide development and application of tsunami risk reduction measures that have been taken as a priority in this field. On November 20th 2015 the directive of the Spanish civil protection agency on planning under the emergency of tsunami was presented. As part of the Spanish National Security strategy, this document specifies the structure of the action plans at different levels: National, regional and local. In this sense, the first step is the proper evaluation of the tsunami hazard at National scale. This work deals with the assessment of the tsunami hazard in Spain, by means of numerical simulations, focused on the elaboration of tsunami hazard maps at National scale. To get this, following a deterministic approach, the seismic structures whose earthquakes could generate the worst tsunamis affecting the coast of Spain have been compiled and characterized. These worst sources have been propagated numerically along a reconstructed bathymetry, built from the best resolution available data. This high-resolution bathymetry was joined with a 25-m resolution DTM, to generate continuous offshore-onshore space, allowing the calculation of the flooded areas prompted by each selected source. The nume