High-density native-range species affects the invasive plant Chromolaena odorata more strongly than species from its invasive range.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yulong; Liao, Zhiyong

2017-11-22

Invasive plant species often form dense mono-dominant stands in areas they have invaded, while having only sparse distribution in their native ranges, and the reasons behind this phenomenon are a key point of research in invasive species biology. Differences in species composition between native and invasive ranges may contribute to the difference in distribution status. In this study, we found that the high-density condition had a more negative effect on C. odorata than the low-density condition when co-grown with neighbor plants from its native range in Mexico, while this pattern was not in evidence when it was grown with neighbors from its invasive range in China. Different competitive ability and coevolutionary history with C. odorata between native-range neighbors and invasive-range neighbors may lead to the inconsistent patterns.

Predicting genotypes environmental range from genome-environment associations.

Science.gov (United States)

Manel, Stéphanie; Andrello, Marco; Henry, Karine; Verdelet, Daphné; Darracq, Aude; Guerin, Pierre-Edouard; Desprez, Bruno; Devaux, Pierre

2018-05-17

Genome-environment association methods aim to detect genetic markers associated with environmental variables. The detected associations are usually analysed separately to identify the genomic regions involved in local adaptation. However, a recent study suggests that single-locus associations can be combined and used in a predictive way to estimate environmental variables for new individuals on the basis of their genotypes. Here, we introduce an original approach to predict the environmental range (values and upper and lower limits) of species genotypes from the genetic markers significantly associated with those environmental variables in an independent set of individuals. We illustrate this approach to predict aridity in a database constituted of 950 individuals of wild beets and 299 individuals of cultivated beets genotyped at 14,409 random Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). We detected 66 alleles associated with aridity and used them to calculate the fraction (I) of aridity-associated alleles in each individual. The fraction I correctly predicted the values of aridity in an independent validation set of wild individuals and was then used to predict aridity in the 299 cultivated individuals. Wild individuals had higher median values and a wider range of values of aridity than the cultivated individuals, suggesting that wild individuals have higher ability to resist to stress-aridity conditions and could be used to improve the resistance of cultivated varieties to aridity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Climate change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and its importance for patterns of species richness and range size

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandel, Brody Steven; Arge, Lars Allan; Svenning, J.-C.

to fully occupy suitable habitat, or when local diversification rates are depressed by local population extinctions and changing selective regimes. Locations with long-term climate instability should therefore show reduced species richness with small-ranged species particularly missing from the community...... these predictions using global data on mammal and amphibian distributions. Consistent with our predictions, richness of small-ranged species of both groups was negatively associated with velocity. Velocity generally explained more variation in richness than did the simple climate anomaly. Climate velocity appears...... to capture an important historical signal on current mammal and amphibian distributions....

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Geographical patterns of adaptation within a species' range : Interactions between drift and gene flow

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alleaume-Benharira, M; Pen, IR; Ronce, O

We use individual-based stochastic simulations and analytical deterministic predictions to investigate the interaction between drift, natural selection and gene flow on the patterns of local adaptation across a fragmented species' range under clinally varying selection. Migration between populations

Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

OpenAIRE

Duscher Tanja; Nopp-Mayr Ursula

2017-01-01

Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known...

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

Science.gov (United States)

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

Geographical range and local abundance of tree species in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haibao Ren

Full Text Available Most studies on the geographical distribution of species have utilized a few well-known taxa in Europe and North America, with little research in China and its wide range of climate and forest types. We assembled large datasets to quantify the geographic ranges of tree species in China and to test several biogeographic hypotheses: 1 whether locally abundant species tend to be geographically widespread; 2 whether species are more abundant towards their range-centers; and 3 how abundances are correlated between sites. Local abundances of 651 species were derived from four tree plots of 20-25 ha where all individuals ≥1 cm in stem diameter were mapped and identified taxonomically. Range sizes of these species across China were then estimated from over 460,000 geo-referenced records; a Bayesian approach was used, allowing careful measures of error of each range estimate. The log-transformed range sizes had a bell-shaped distribution with a median of 703,000 km(2, and >90% of 651 species had ranges >10(5 km(2. There was no relationship between local abundance and range size, and no evidence for species being more abundant towards their range-centers. Finally, species' abundances were positively correlated between sites. The widespread nature of most tree species in China suggests few are vulnerable to global extinction, and there is no indication of the double-peril that would result if rare species also had narrow ranges.

Are range-size distributions consistent with species-level heritability?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Gotelli, Nicholas; Rahbek, Carsten

2012-01-01

The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has...... been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output...

Potential climate change favored expansion of a range limited species, Haematostaphis barteri Hook f.

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Jacob Koundouonon Moutouama

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Understanding impact of climate change on range breadth of rare species can improve the ability to anticipate their decline or expension and take appropriate conservation measures. Haematatostaphis barteri is an agroforestry species of the Sudanian centre of endemism in Africa. We investigeted impact of climate change on range of suitable habitats for this species in Benin,using the Maximum Entropy algorithm under R software. Five environmental variables were used with the regional climate model under the new Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP. Moisture Index of the Moist Quarter and Slope variability had the greatest predictive importance for the range of suitable habitats for H. barteri. Its Potential breadth was found to be currently limited to the Atacora Mountain Chain (AMC and covers 0.51% of national territory. Climate change was projected to favor expansion of suitable habitats for H. barteri by 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These habitats were however mostly out of the local protected areas network. Climate change would extend range of habitats for H. barteri. Observed protection gaps suggest need for integrating this species into formal in situ, on-farm or ex situ conservation schemes.

Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

2017-06-01

Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Normand, Signe; Ricklefs, Robert E.; Skov, Flemming; Bladt, Jesper; Tackenberg, Oliver; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2011-01-01

The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role. PMID:21543356

Using a data-constrained model of home range establishment to predict abundance in spatially heterogeneous habitats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark C Vanderwel

Full Text Available Mechanistic modelling approaches that explicitly translate from individual-scale resource selection to the distribution and abundance of a larger population may be better suited to predicting responses to spatially heterogeneous habitat alteration than commonly-used regression models. We developed an individual-based model of home range establishment that, given a mapped distribution of local habitat values, estimates species abundance by simulating the number and position of viable home ranges that can be maintained across a spatially heterogeneous area. We estimated parameters for this model from data on red-backed vole (Myodes gapperi abundances in 31 boreal forest sites in Ontario, Canada. The home range model had considerably more support from these data than both non-spatial regression models based on the same original habitat variables and a mean-abundance null model. It had nearly equivalent support to a non-spatial regression model that, like the home range model, scaled an aggregate measure of habitat value from local associations with habitat resources. The home range and habitat-value regression models gave similar predictions for vole abundance under simulations of light- and moderate-intensity partial forest harvesting, but the home range model predicted lower abundances than the regression model under high-intensity disturbance. Empirical regression-based approaches for predicting species abundance may overlook processes that affect habitat use by individuals, and often extrapolate poorly to novel habitat conditions. Mechanistic home range models that can be parameterized against abundance data from different habitats permit appropriate scaling from individual- to population-level habitat relationships, and can potentially provide better insights into responses to disturbance.

Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

OpenAIRE

Magister, Tone

2009-01-01

The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

Science.gov (United States)

Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

2014-09-01

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

Multi-scale approach for predicting fish species distributions across coral reef seascapes.

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Simon J Pittman

Full Text Available Two of the major limitations to effective management of coral reef ecosystems are a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and a paucity of data on the interacting environmental variables that drive distributional patterns. Advances in marine remote sensing, together with the novel integration of landscape ecology and advanced niche modelling techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to reliably model and map marine species distributions across many kilometres of coral reef ecosystems. We developed a multi-scale approach using three-dimensional seafloor morphology and across-shelf location to predict spatial distributions for five common Caribbean fish species. Seascape topography was quantified from high resolution bathymetry at five spatial scales (5-300 m radii surrounding fish survey sites. Model performance and map accuracy was assessed for two high performing machine-learning algorithms: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT and Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt. The three most important predictors were geographical location across the shelf, followed by a measure of topographic complexity. Predictor contribution differed among species, yet rarely changed across spatial scales. BRT provided 'outstanding' model predictions (AUC = >0.9 for three of five fish species. MaxEnt provided 'outstanding' model predictions for two of five species, with the remaining three models considered 'excellent' (AUC = 0.8-0.9. In contrast, MaxEnt spatial predictions were markedly more accurate (92% map accuracy than BRT (68% map accuracy. We demonstrate that reliable spatial predictions for a range of key fish species can be achieved by modelling the interaction between the geographical location across the shelf and the topographic heterogeneity of seafloor structure. This multi-scale, analytic approach is an important new cost-effective tool to accurately delineate essential fish habitat and support

Predicted range expansion of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) in forestlands of the southern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiao-Hsuan Wang; William Grant; Todd Swannack; Jianbang Gan; William Rogers; Tomasz Koralewski; James Miller; John W. Taylor Jr.

2011-01-01

We present an integrated approach for predicting future range expansion of an invasive species (Chinese tallow tree) that incorporates statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miranda C Jones

Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.

Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Putten, Wim H; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E

2010-07-12

Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

Comparison of Ablation Predictions for Carbonaceous Materials Using CEA and JANAF-Based Species Thermodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Milos, Frank S.

2011-01-01

In most previous work at NASA Ames Research Center, ablation predictions for carbonaceous materials were obtained using a species thermodynamics database developed by Aerotherm Corporation. This database is derived mostly from the JANAF thermochemical tables. However, the CEA thermodynamics database, also used by NASA, is considered more up to date. In this work, the FIAT code was modified to use CEA-based curve fits for species thermodynamics, then analyses using both the JANAF and CEA thermodynamics were performed for carbon and carbon phenolic materials over a range of test conditions. The ablation predictions are comparable at lower heat fluxes where the dominant mechanism is carbon oxidation. However, the predictions begin to diverge in the sublimation regime, with the CEA model predicting lower recession. The disagreement is more significant for carbon phenolic than for carbon, and this difference is attributed to hydrocarbon species that may contribute to the ablation rate.

Explaining life history variation in a changing climate across a species' range

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neuheimer, Anna B.; MacKenzie, Brian R.

2014-01-01

Timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting population production. Explaining and predicting species' dynamics necessitates disentangling the intrinsic (genotypic) and extrinsic (climatic) factors controlling reproductive timing. Here we explore temporal and spatial...... changes in spawning time for 21 populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species' range (40 degrees to 80 degrees N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree-days, DD). First, we estimate spawning DD among...... years (within populations) to show how recent changes in spawning time can be explained by local changes in temperature. Second, we employ spawning DD to identify temperature-independent trends in spawning time among populations that are consistent with parallel adaptive evolution and the evolutionary...

Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K

2007-01-01

the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients....... Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured...

Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

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Daniel Ayllón

Full Text Available Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta living along a temperature gradient at the warmest thermal edge of its range. We developed a carrying capacity model in which maximum population size is limited by physical habitat conditions and regulated through territoriality. We first tested whether population numbers were driven by carrying capacity dynamics and then targeted on establishing (1 the temperature thresholds beyond which population numbers switch from being physical habitat- to temperature-limited; and (2 the rate at which carrying capacity declines with temperature within limiting thermal ranges. Carrying capacity along with emergent density-dependent responses explained up to 76% of spatio-temporal density variability of juveniles and adults but only 50% of young-of-the-year's. By contrast, young-of-the-year trout were highly sensitive to thermal conditions, their performance declining with temperature at a higher rate than older life stages, and disruptions being triggered at lower temperature thresholds. Results suggest that limiting temperature effects were progressively stronger with increasing anthropogenic disturbance. There was however a critical threshold, matching the incipient thermal limit for survival, beyond which realized density was always below potential numbers irrespective of disturbance intensity. We additionally found a lower threshold, matching the thermal limit for feeding, beyond which even unaltered populations declined. We predict that most of our study

Predicting aquatic macrophyte occurrence in soft-water oligotrophic lakes (Pyrenees mountain range

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Cristina Pulido

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Distribution of aquatic macrophytes in lakes is related to geographical, morphological, catchment and water chemistry variables as well as human impacts, which modify the original environment. Here, we aim at building statistical models to establish the ecological niches of 11 aquatic macrophytes (10 different phanerogams and the genus Nitella from oligotrophic soft-water lakes and infer their ecological requirements and environmental constraints at the southernmost limit of their distribution. Macrophyte occurrence and environmental variables were obtained from 86 non-exploited oligotrophic soft-water lakes from the Pyrenees (Southern Europe; 42º50´N, 1º00´E; macrophytes inhabited 55 of these lakes. Optimum ranges and macrophyte occurrence were predicted in relation to 18 geographical, morphological, catchment and water chemistry variables using univariate and multivariate logistic models. Lakes at low altitude, in vegetated catchments and with low water concentration of NO3- and SO4-2, were the most suitable to host macrophytes. In general, individual species of aquatic macrophytes showed clear patterns of segregation along conductivity and pH gradients, although the specific combination of variables selected in the best models explaining their occurrence differed among species.  Based on the species response to pH and conductivity, we found Isoetes lacustris have its optimum in waters with low conductivity and pH (i.e. negative monotonic response. In contrast, Callitriche palustris, Ranunculus aquatilis, Subularia aquatica, Nitella spp., and Myriophyllum alterniflorum showed an optimum at intermediate values (i.e. unimodal response, whereas Potamogeton berchtoldii, Potamogeton alpinus, and Ranunculus trichophyllus as species had their optimum at relatively high water pH and conductivity (i.e. positive monotonic response. This pattern has been observed in other regions for the same species, although with different optima and tolerance

Geographic range size and determinants of avian species richness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jetz, Walter; Rahbek, Carsten

2002-01-01

Geographic patterns in species richness are mainly based on wide-ranging species because their larger number of distribution records has a disproportionate contribution to the species richness counts. Here we demonstrate how this effect strongly influences our understanding of what determines spe...

Species climate range influences hydraulic and stomatal traits in Eucalyptus species.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourne, Aimee E; Creek, Danielle; Peters, Jennifer M R; Ellsworth, David S; Choat, Brendan

2017-07-01

Plant hydraulic traits influence the capacity of species to grow and survive in water-limited environments, but their comparative study at a common site has been limited. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether selective pressures on species originating in drought-prone environments constrain hydraulic traits among related species grown under common conditions. Leaf tissue water relations, xylem anatomy, stomatal behaviour and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism were measured on six Eucalyptus species growing in a common garden to determine whether these traits were related to current species climate range and to understand linkages between the traits. Hydraulically weighted xylem vessel diameter, leaf turgor loss point, the water potential at stomatal closure and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism were significantly ( P Eucalyptus trees has important implications for the limits of species responses to changing environmental conditions and thus for species survival and distribution into the future, and yields new information for physiological models. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Effects of corridors on home range sizes and interpatch movements of three small mammal species.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mabry, Karen, E.; Barrett, Gary, W.

2002-04-30

Mabry, K.E., and G.W. Barrett. 2002. Effects of corridors on home range sizes and interpatch movements of three small mammal species. Landscape Ecol. 17:629-636. Corridors are predicted to benefit populations in patchy habitats by promoting movement, which should increase population densities, gene flow, and recolonization of extinct patch populations. However, few investigators have considered use of the total landscape, particularly the possibility of interpatch movement through matrix habitat, by small mammals. This study compares home range sizes of 3 species of small mammals, the cotton mouse, old field mouse and cotton rat between patches with and without corridors. Corridor presence did not have a statistically significant influence on average home range size. Habitat specialization and sex influenced the probability of an individual moving between 2 patches without corridors. The results of this study suggest that small mammals may be more capable of interpatch movement without corridors than is frequently assumed.

Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences.

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Daniel Pincheira-Donoso

Full Text Available Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses, such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Logistic regression accuracy across different spatial and temporal scales for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet

Science.gov (United States)

Carolyn B. Meyer; Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

The scale at which habitat variables are measured affects the accuracy of resource selection functions in predicting animal use of sites. We used logistic regression models for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet, (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in a large region in California to address how much changing the spatial or temporal scale of...

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

SeqAPASS: Predicting chemical susceptibility to threatened/endangered species

Science.gov (United States)

Conservation of a molecular target across species can be used as a line-of-evidence to predict the likelihood of chemical susceptibility. The web-based Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS; https://seqapass.epa.gov/seqapass/) application was devel...

Predictions For New, Exotic Actinide Species

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyykko, P.

2002-01-01

The approach. New, simple chemical species can be predicted by studying isoelectronic series using ab initio quantum chemistry. We currently use in most cases relativistic pseudopotentials and handle the electron correlation using density functional theory (DFT) or wave-function-based methods, from MP2 to CCSD(T). Typical codes are Gaussian 98, Turbomole or MolCas. For full four-component Dirac-Fock calculations, the DREAMS code of K. G. Dyall has been utilized. For mapping out the possible new species, complete maps of all possibilities are made, whenever possible, and the new species typically occur along the coast-line of the 'island of stability' of already known species

Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duscher Tanja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known to occur in Austria since 1963 and is now widespread in the northern and eastern parts of the country, but its population density remains low. With the help of a species distribution model we identified focal areas for future monitoring and management actions, and we address some management implications for the raccoon dog in Austria. We also determined the environmental predictors of raccoon dog distribution in this alpine country. Its distribution seems to be mainly limited by climatic factors (snow depth, duration of snow cover, winter precipitation and mean annual temperature and is thus linked to elevation. Consequently, we assumed the Alps to be a barrier for the spread of the invasive raccoon dog in Europe; however, its ecological permeability is expected to increase with ongoing climate change.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

2012-01-19

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability

Science.gov (United States)

Solymos, Peter; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Stralberg, Diana; Barker, Nicole K. S.; Bayne, Erin M.

2018-01-01

Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.

Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

2013-01-01

The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

Diversification Rates and the Evolution of Species Range Size Frequency Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Castiglione

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The geographic range sizes frequency distribution (RFD within clades is typically right-skewed with untransformed data, and bell-shaped or slightly left-skewed under the log-transformation. This means that most species within clades occupy diminutive ranges, whereas just a few species are truly widespread. A number of ecological and evolutionary explanations have been proposed to account for this pattern. Among the latter, much attention has been given to the issue of how extinction and speciation probabilities influence RFD. Numerous accounts now convincingly demonstrate that extinction rate decreases with range size, both in living and extinct taxa. The relationship between range size and speciation rate, though, is much less obvious, with either small or large ranged species being proposed to originate more daughter taxa. Herein, we used a large fossil database including 21 animal clades and more than 80,000 fossil occurrences distributed over more than 400 million years of marine metazoans (exclusive of vertebrates evolution, to test the relationship between extinction rate, speciation rate, and range size. As expected, we found that extinction rate almost linearly decreases with range size. In contrast, speciation rate peaks at the large (but not the largest end of the range size spectrum. This is consistent with the peripheral isolation mode of allopatric speciation being the main mechanism of species origination. The huge variation in phylogeny, fossilization potential, time of fossilization, and the overarching effect of mass extinctions suggest caution must be posed at generalizing our results, as individual clades may deviate significantly from the general pattern.

High Resolution Habitat Suitability Modelling For Restricted-Range Hawaiian Alpine Arthropod Species

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, N. M.

2016-12-01

Mapping potentially suitable habitat is critical for effective species conservation and management but can be challenging in areas exhibiting complex heterogeneity. An approach that combines non-intrusive spatial data collection techniques and field data can lead to a better understanding of landscapes and species distributions. Nysius wekiuicola, commonly known as the wēkiu bug, is the most studied arthropod species endemic to the Maunakea summit in Hawai`i, yet details about its geographic distribution and habitat use remain poorly understood. To predict the geographic distribution of N. wekiuicola, MaxEnt habitat suitability models were generated from a diverse set of input variables, including fifteen years of species occurrence data, high resolution digital elevation models, surface mineralogy maps derived from hyperspectral remote sensing, and climate data. Model results indicate that elevation (78.2 percent), and the presence of nanocrystalline hematite surface minerals (13.7 percent) had the highest influence, with lesser contributions from aspect, slope, and other surface mineral classes. Climatic variables were not included in the final analysis due to auto-correlation and coarse spatial resolution. Biotic factors relating to predation and competition also likely dictate wēkiu bug capture patterns and influence our results. The wēkiu bug range and habitat suitability models generated as a result of this study will be directly incorporated into management and restoration goals for the summit region and can also be adapted for other arthropod species present, leading to a more holistic understanding of metacommunity dynamics. Key words: Microhabitat, Structure from Motion, Lidar, MaxEnt, Habitat Suitability

Mechanisms Controlling Species Responses to Climate Change: Thermal Tolerances and Shifting Range Limits. (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Sage, R. F.; Bykova, O.; Coiner, H.

2010-12-01

One of the main effects of anthropogenic climate change will be widespread shifts in species distribution, with the common assumption that they will migrate to higher elevation and latitude. While this assumption is supported by migration patterns following climate warming in the past 20,000 years, it has not been rigorously evaluated in terms of physiological mechanism, despite the implication that migration in response to climate warming is controlled by some form of thermal adaptation. We have been evaluating the degree to which species range limits are controlled by physiological patterns of thermal tolerance in bioinvaders of North America. Bioinvaders presumably have few biotic controls over their distribution and thus are more likely to fully exploit their thermal niche. In cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), the minimum lethal temperature in winter is -32C, which corresponds to the mean winter minimum temperature at its northern range limit. In red brome (Bromus rubens), the minimum lethal temperature is also near -32C, which is well below the minimum winter temperature near -20C that corresponds to its northern distribution limit. In kudzu (Pueraria lobata), the minimum lethal temperature is near -20C, which corresponds to the midwinter minimum at its northern distribution limit; however, overwintering kudzu tissues are insulated by soil and snow cover, and thus do not experience lethal temperatures at kudzu's northern range limit. These results demonstrate that some invasive species can exploit the potential range defined by their low temperature tolerance and thus can be predicted by mechanistic models to migrate to higher latitudes with moderation of winter cold. The distribution of other invaders such as kudzu and red brome are not controlled by tolerance of midwinter cold. Developing mechanistic models of their distributions, and how these might change with climate warming, will require extensive physiological study.

Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth

2018-01-01

There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.

Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beatty, Gemma, E.; Philipp, Marianne; Provan, Jim

2010-01-01

hybridization may lead to the extinction of peripheral populations of P. minor where the two species grow sympatrically. Extinction could occur as a result of genetic assimilation where F1s are fertile, or via the removal of unidirectionally pollinated sterile F1s, or by a combination of these processes......Aim Introgressive hybridization between a locally rare species and a more abundant congener can drive population extinction via genetic assimilation, or the replacement of the rare species gene pool with that of the common species. To date, however, few studies have assessed the effects...... of such processes at the limits of species' distribution ranges. In this study, we have examined the potential for hybridization between range-edge populations of the wintergreen Pyrola minor and sympatric populations of Pyrola grandiflora. Location Qeqertarsuaq, Greenland and Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Methods...

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species.

Science.gov (United States)

Matías, Luis; Jump, Alistair S

2015-02-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

Mapping plant species ranges in the Hawaiian Islands: developing a methodology and associated GIS layers

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Jonathan P.; Jacobi, James D.; Gon, Samuel M.; Matsuwaki, Dwight; Mehrhoff, Loyal; Wagner, Warren; Lucas, Matthew; Rowe, Barbara

2012-01-01

This report documents a methodology for projecting the geographic ranges of plant species in the Hawaiian Islands. The methodology consists primarily of the creation of several geographic information system (GIS) data layers depicting attributes related to the geographic ranges of plant species. The most important spatial-data layer generated here is an objectively defined classification of climate as it pertains to the distribution of plant species. By examining previous zonal-vegetation classifications in light of spatially detailed climate data, broad zones of climate relevant to contemporary concepts of vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands can be explicitly defined. Other spatial-data layers presented here include the following: substrate age, as large areas of the island of Hawai'i, in particular, are covered by very young lava flows inimical to the growth of many plant species; biogeographic regions of the larger islands that are composites of multiple volcanoes, as many of their species are restricted to a given topographically isolated mountain or a specified group of them; and human impact, which can reduce the range of many species relative to where they formerly were found. Other factors influencing the geographic ranges of species that are discussed here but not developed further, owing to limitations in rendering them spatially, include topography, soils, and disturbance. A method is described for analyzing these layers in a GIS, in conjunction with a database of species distributions, to project the ranges of plant species, which include both the potential range prior to human disturbance and the projected present range. Examples of range maps for several species are given as case studies that demonstrate different spatial characteristics of range. Several potential applications of species-range maps are discussed, including facilitating field surveys, informing restoration efforts, studying range size and rarity, studying biodiversity, managing

Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

Science.gov (United States)

Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

2015-10-01

There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jens G Froese

Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

Interaction of species traits and environmental disturbance predicts invasion success of aquatic microorganisms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvira Mächler

Full Text Available Factors such as increased mobility of humans, global trade and climate change are affecting the range of many species, and cause large-scale translocations of species beyond their native range. Many introduced species have a strong negative influence on the new local environment and lead to high economic costs. There is a strong interest to understand why some species are successful in invading new environments and others not. Most of our understanding and generalizations thereof, however, are based on studies of plants and animals, and little is known on invasion processes of microorganisms. We conducted a microcosm experiment to understand factors promoting the success of biological invasions of aquatic microorganisms. In a controlled lab experiment, protist and rotifer species originally isolated in North America invaded into a natural, field-collected community of microorganisms of European origin. To identify the importance of environmental disturbances on invasion success, we either repeatedly disturbed the local patches, or kept them as undisturbed controls. We measured both short-term establishment and long-term invasion success, and correlated it with species-specific life-history traits. We found that environmental disturbances significantly affected invasion success. Depending on the invading species' identity, disturbances were either promoting or decreasing invasion success. The interaction between habitat disturbance and species identity was especially pronounced for long-term invasion success. Growth rate was the most important trait promoting invasion success, especially when the species invaded into a disturbed local community. We conclude that neither species traits nor environmental factors alone conclusively predict invasion success, but an integration of both of them is necessary.

Salinity ranges of some southern African fish species occurring in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The recorded salinity ranges of 96 fish species occurring in southern African estuaries are documented. Factors influen- cing the tolerance of fishes to low and high salinity regimes are discussed, with most species tolerant of low rather than high salinity conditions. This is important since most systems are subject to periodic ...

Modeling the potential area of occupancy at fine resolution may reduce uncertainty in species range estimates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja; Draper, David; Nogues, David Bravo

2012-01-01

and maximum entropy modeling to assess whether different sampling (expert versus systematic surveys) may affect AOO estimates based on habitat suitability maps, and the differences between such measurements and traditional coarse-grid methods. Fine-scale models performed robustly and were not influenced...... by survey protocols, providing similar habitat suitability outputs with high spatial agreement. Model-based estimates of potential AOO were significantly smaller than AOO measures obtained from coarse-scale grids, even if the first were obtained from conservative thresholds based on the Minimal Predicted...... permit comparable measures among species. We conclude that estimates of AOO based on fine-resolution distribution models are more robust tools for risk assessment than traditional systems, allowing a better understanding of species ranges at habitat level....

Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

2017-01-01

Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...

[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

2013-05-01

Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

Using phylogenetic and ionomic relationships to predict the uptake of radionuclides by any plant species

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willey, Neil J.; Siasou, Eleni [Centre for Research In Biosciences, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay, Bristol BS16 1QY (United Kingdom)

2014-07-01

It is not practical to empirically derive soil-to-plant TFs for all soil-plant combinations that are important in radiological assessments, so predictions for a range of species on different soils types are frequently impossible because TFs are unknown. This severely hampers predictions of both doses to biota and of the contamination of a variety of food chains with radioisotopes. Compilations of TFs in themselves provide no fundamental understanding of the plant factors that control the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides and thus no method of prediction. We have developed methods for the meta-analyses of radionuclide transfer data that can be used to make predictions of the transfer of radionuclides into any plants species for which TFs do not exist based on an understand of the plant factors that control radionuclide uptake. There is no reason a priori to think that variation in TF should be constrained by species. The species is, essentially, a reproductive unit and variation in many plant traits, some of which might control radionuclide uptake, occurs at taxonomic levels above the species. In the last 15 years genomic information has transformed the understanding of the evolutionary relationships of the living world so that new 'trees of life' (phylogenies) are now available. Using a Residual Maximum Likelihood modeling procedure to compile a significant proportion of all existing TF data onto a single scale, we here present a synthesis of the influence of phylogeny on variation in soil-to-plant TFs for radioisotopes of Cs, Sr, Co, I, Tc, and S. We show that a significant proportion of variation in TF is associated with major branches of the phylogeny of angiosperms (flowering plants) so that knowledge of a species' position on the phylogeny can be used to make predictions of transfer relative to other species. These phylogenetically-based predictions of relative transfer to any species can be used to make absolute predictions to any species

Models of alien species richness show moderate predictive accuracy and poor transferability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César Capinha

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Robust predictions of alien species richness are useful to assess global biodiversity change. Nevertheless, the capacity to predict spatial patterns of alien species richness remains largely unassessed. Using 22 data sets of alien species richness from diverse taxonomic groups and covering various parts of the world, we evaluated whether different statistical models were able to provide useful predictions of absolute and relative alien species richness, as a function of explanatory variables representing geographical, environmental and socio-economic factors. Five state-of-the-art count data modelling techniques were used and compared: Poisson and negative binomial generalised linear models (GLMs, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, random forests (RF and boosted regression trees (BRT. We found that predictions of absolute alien species richness had a low to moderate accuracy in the region where the models were developed and a consistently poor accuracy in new regions. Predictions of relative richness performed in a superior manner in both geographical settings, but still were not good. Flexible tree ensembles-type techniques (RF and BRT were shown to be significantly better in modelling alien species richness than parametric linear models (such as GLM, despite the latter being more commonly applied for this purpose. Importantly, the poor spatial transferability of models also warrants caution in assuming the generality of the relationships they identify, e.g. by applying projections under future scenario conditions. Ultimately, our results strongly suggest that predictability of spatial variation in richness of alien species richness is limited. The somewhat more robust ability to rank regions according to the number of aliens they have (i.e. relative richness, suggests that models of aliens species richness may be useful for prioritising and comparing regions, but not for predicting exact species numbers.

The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of Ailanthus altissima

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Albright; Hao Chen; Lijun Chen; Qinfeng Guo

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US...

Extensive range overlap between heliconiine sister species: evidence for sympatric speciation in butterflies?

Science.gov (United States)

Rosser, Neil; Kozak, Krzysztof M; Phillimore, Albert B; Mallet, James

2015-06-30

Sympatric speciation is today generally viewed as plausible, and some well-supported examples exist, but its relative contribution to biodiversity remains to be established. We here quantify geographic overlap of sister species of heliconiine butterflies, and use age-range correlations and spatial simulations of the geography of speciation to infer the frequency of sympatric speciation. We also test whether shifts in mimetic wing colour pattern, host plant use and climate niche play a role in speciation, and whether such shifts are associated with sympatry. Approximately a third of all heliconiine sister species pairs exhibit near complete range overlap, and analyses of the observed patterns of range overlap suggest that sympatric speciation contributes 32%-95% of speciation events. Müllerian mimicry colour patterns and host plant choice are highly labile traits that seem to be associated with speciation, but we find no association between shifts in these traits and range overlap. In contrast, climatic niches of sister species are more conserved. Unlike birds and mammals, sister species of heliconiines are often sympatric and our inferences using the most recent comparative methods suggest that sympatric speciation is common. However, if sister species spread rapidly into sympatry (e.g. due to their similar climatic niches), then assumptions underlying our methods would be violated. Furthermore, although we find some evidence for the role of ecology in speciation, ecological shifts did not show the associations with range overlap expected under sympatric speciation. We delimit species of heliconiines in three different ways, based on "strict and " "relaxed" biological species concepts (BSC), as well as on a surrogate for the widely-used "diagnostic" version of the phylogenetic species concept (PSC). We show that one reason why more sympatric speciation is inferred in heliconiines than in birds may be due to a different culture of species delimitation in the two

Plant-soil interactions in the expansion and native range of a poleward shifting plant species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grunsven, van R.H.A.; Putten, van der W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

2010-01-01

Climate warming causes range shifts of many species toward higher latitudes and altitudes. However, range shifts of host species do not necessarily proceed at the same rates as those of their enemies and symbionts. Here, we examined how a range shifting plant species performs in soil from its

Plant–soil interactions in the expansion and native range of a poleward shifting plant species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Grunsven, R.H.A.; Van der Putten, W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

2010-01-01

Climate warming causes range shifts of many species toward higher latitudes and altitudes. However, range shifts of host species do not necessarily proceed at the same rates as those of their enemies and symbionts. Here, we examined how a range shifting plant species performs in soil from its

Evolutionary patterns of range size, abundance and species richness in Amazonian angiosperm trees

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Kyle Dexter

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Amazonian tree species vary enormously in their total abundance and range size, while Amazonian tree genera vary greatly in species richness. The drivers of this variation are not well understood. Here, we construct a phylogenetic hypothesis that represents half of Amazonian tree genera in order to contribute to explaining the variation. We find several clear, broad-scale patterns. Firstly, there is significant phylogenetic signal for all three characteristics; closely related genera tend to have similar numbers of species and similar mean range size and abundance. Additionally, the species richness of genera shows a significant, negative relationship with the mean range size and abundance of their constituent species. Our results suggest that phylogenetically correlated intrinsic factors, namely traits of the genera themselves, shape among lineage variation in range size, abundance and species richness. We postulate that tree stature may be one particularly relevant trait. However, other traits may also be relevant, and our study reinforces the need for ambitious compilations of trait data for Amazonian trees. In the meantime, our study shows how large-scale phylogenies can help to elucidate, and contribute to explaining, macroecological and macroevolutionary patterns in hyperdiverse, yet poorly understood regions like the Amazon Basin.

Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Panza, G.F.; Peresan, A.

2001-12-01

A new scheme for the application of the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8 is proposed. The scheme accounts for the natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates the subjectivity in the positioning of the areas of investigation and provides additional stability of the predictions with respect to the original variant. According to the retroactive testing in Italy and adjacent regions, this improvement is achieved without any significant change of the alarm volume in comparison with the results published so far. (author)

Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

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William B. Sutton

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Moving Species Redundancy Toward a More Predictive Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Human activities are driving rapid changes in species diversity in a wide range of habitats globally. These changes in species diversity raise questions about the ability of altered systems to continue to offer valuable ecosystem services. Maintenance of ecosystem services unde...

Does enemy damage vary across the range of exotic plant species? Evidence from two coastal dune plant species in eastern Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabassum, Samiya; Leishman, Michelle R

2018-02-01

Release from natural enemies is often cited as a key factor for understanding the success of invasive plant species in novel environments. However, with time invasive species will accumulate native enemies in their invaded range, with factors such as spread distance from the site of introduction, climate and leaf-level traits potentially affecting enemy acquisition rates. However, the influence of such factors is difficult to assess without examining enemy attack across the entire species' range. We tested the significance of factors associated with range expansion (distance from source population and maximum population density), climatic variables (annual temperature and rainfall) and leaf-level traits [specific leaf area (SLA) and foliar nitrogen concentration] in explaining variation in enemy damage across multiple populations of two coastal invasive plants (Gladiolus gueinzii Kunze and Hydrocotyle bonariensis Lam.) along their entire introduced distribution in eastern Australia. We found that for H. bonariensis, amount of foliar damage increased with distance from source population. In contrast, for G. gueinzii, probability and amount of foliar damage decreased with decreasing temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively. Our results show that patterns of enemy attack across species' ranges are complex and cannot be generalised between species or even range edges.

Range prediction for electric vehicles; Reichweitenprognose fuer Elektromobile

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conradi, Peter [All4IP Technologies GmbH and Co.KG, Darmstadt (Germany)

2012-06-15

The range of electric vehicles varies strongly in dependency of a number of external factors. To be able to make an exact dynamic prediction of the remaining range during the journey, All4IP Technologies developed a special software that can access the CAN bus. The App, programmed for iOS and Android operating systems considers even the topology of the area. (orig.)

Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

2017-01-01

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smetanová, S.; Bláha, L.; Liess, M.; Schäfer, R.B.; Beketov, M.A.

2014-01-01

Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEAR pesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2–1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. - Highlights: • We validated the statistical model Species Sensitivity Distribution with field data. • Good correlation was found between the model predictions and observed effects. • But, the generally accepted threshold msPAF 0.05 severely underestimated the effects. - Comparison of the SSD-based prediction with the field data evaluated with the SPEAR pesticides index shows that SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 severely underestimates the effects observed in the field

[Altitudinal patterns of species richness and species range size of vascular plants in Xiaolong- shan Reserve of Qinling Mountain: a test of Rapoport' s rule].

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Zhi; Gong, Da-Jie; Sun, Cheng-Xiang; Li, Xiao-Jun; Li, Wan-Jiang

2014-09-01

Altitudinal patterns of species richness and species range size and their underlying mechanisms have long been a key topic in biogeography and biodiversity research. Rapoport's rule stated that the species richness gradually declined with the increasing altitude, while the species ranges became larger. Using altitude-distribution database from Xiaolongshan Reverse, this study explored the altitudinal patterns of vascular plant species richness and species range in Qinling Xiaolongshan Reserve, and examined the relationships between species richness and their distributional middle points in altitudinal bands for different fauna, taxonomic units and growth forms and tested the Rapoport's rule by using Stevens' method, Pagel's method, mid-point method and cross-species method. The results showed that the species richness of vascular plants except small-range species showed a unimodal pattern along the altitude in Qinling Xiaolongshan Reserve and the highest proportion of small-range species was found at the lower altitudinal bands and at the higher altitudinal bands. Due to different assemblages and examining methods, the relationships between species distributing range sizes and the altitudes were different. Increasing taxonomic units was easier to support Rapoport's rule, which was related to niche differences that the different taxonomic units occupied. The mean species range size of angiosperms showed a unimodal pattern along the altitude, while those of the gymnosperms and pteridophytes were unclearly regular. The mean species range size of the climbers was wider with the increasing altitude, while that of the shrubs which could adapt to different environmental situations was not sensitive to the change of altitude. Pagel's method was easier to support the Rapoport's rule, and then was Steven's method. On the contrary, due to the mid-domain effect, the results of the test by using the mid-point method showed that the mean species range size varied in a unimodal

Do species differ in their ability to coexist with the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus? A comparison between two distinct invaded ranges and a native range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Hejda

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The community-level impacts of invasive plants are likely to vary depending on the character of native species of the target communities and their ability to thrive within the stands of the dominant alien invader. Therefore, I examined the response of native species richness to the cover of the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus in two distinct invaded ranges: Czech Republic (Central Europe and New Zealand. I compared the relation between native species richness and the cover of the dominant alien L. polyphyllus with that in its native range, Pacific Northwest, USA.In the native range, I found no response of native species richness to the cover of L. polyphyllus. In the Czech Republic (central Europe, the richness of native species related to it negativelly, but the relation was only marginally significant. Contrary to that, the richness of species native to New Zealand related to the cover of L. polyphyllus strongly negatively and the negative relation was significantly stronger than that of species native to Europe.Of the two invaded ranges, species native to New Zealand have been documented to be much more vulnerable to the conditions associated with the invasion and dominance of L. polyphyllus, compared to species native to central Europe. This principle has been shown both across these two invaded ranges and in New Zealand, where the aliens of european origin successfully coexist with the dominant invasive alien L. polyphyllus. Similarly, species in the native range of L. polyphyllus showed no relation to its cover, indicating their ability to thrive even in dense stands of this dominant species.

Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum in the southeastern United States.

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James E Byers

Full Text Available Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5 are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas, which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

2012-01-01

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

Fine-spatial scale predictions of understory species using climate- and LiDAR-derived terrain and canopy metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Nijland, Wiebe; Nielsen, Scott E.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Wulder, Michael A.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

2014-01-01

Food and habitat resources are critical components of wildlife management and conservation efforts. The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) has diverse diets and habitat requirements particularly for understory plant species, which are impacted by human developments and forest management activities. We use light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to predict the occurrence of 14 understory plant species relevant to bear forage and compare our predictions with more conventional climate- and land cover-based models. We use boosted regression trees to model each of the 14 understory species across 4435 km2 using occurrence (presence-absence) data from 1941 field plots. Three sets of models were fitted: climate only, climate and basic land and forest covers from Landsat 30-m imagery, and a climate- and LiDAR-derived model describing both the terrain and forest canopy. Resulting model accuracies varied widely among species. Overall, 8 of 14 species models were improved by including the LiDAR-derived variables. For climate-only models, mean annual precipitation and frost-free periods were the most important variables. With inclusion of LiDAR-derived attributes, depth-to-water table, terrain-intercepted annual radiation, and elevation were most often selected. This suggests that fine-scale terrain conditions affect the distribution of the studied species more than canopy conditions.

In silico site-directed mutagenesis informs species-specific predictions of chemical susceptibility derived from the Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool

Science.gov (United States)

The Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool was developed to address needs for rapid, cost effective methods of species extrapolation of chemical susceptibility. Specifically, the SeqAPASS tool compares the primary sequence (Level 1), functiona...

Predicting the presence and cover of management relevant invasive plant species on protected areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Iacona, Gwenllian; Price, Franklin D; Armsworth, Paul R

2016-01-15

Invasive species are a management concern on protected areas worldwide. Conservation managers need to predict infestations of invasive plants they aim to treat if they want to plan for long term management. Many studies predict the presence of invasive species, but predictions of cover are more relevant for management. Here we examined how predictors of invasive plant presence and cover differ across species that vary in their management priority. To do so, we used data on management effort and cover of invasive plant species on central Florida protected areas. Using a zero-inflated multiple regression framework, we showed that protected area features can predict the presence and cover of the focal species but the same features rarely explain both. There were several predictors of either presence or cover that were important across multiple species. Protected areas with three days of frost per year or fewer were more likely to have occurrences of four of the six focal species. When invasive plants were present, their proportional cover was greater on small preserves for all species, and varied with surrounding household density for three species. None of the predictive features were clearly related to whether species were prioritized for management or not. Our results suggest that predictors of cover and presence can differ both within and across species but do not covary with management priority. We conclude that conservation managers need to select predictors of invasion with care as species identity can determine the relationship between predictors of presence and the more management relevant predictors of cover. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Escaping to the summits: phylogeography and predicted range dynamics of Cerastium dinaricum, an endangered high mountain plant endemic to the western Balkan Peninsula.

Science.gov (United States)

Kutnjak, Denis; Kuttner, Michael; Niketić, Marjan; Dullinger, Stefan; Schönswetter, Peter; Frajman, Božo

2014-09-01

The Balkans are a major European biodiversity hotspot, however, almost nothing is known about processes of intraspecific diversification of the region's high-altitude biota and their reaction to the predicted global warming. To fill this gap, genome size measurements, AFLP fingerprints, plastid and nuclear sequences were employed to explore the phylogeography of Cerastium dinaricum. Range size changes under future climatic conditions were predicted by niche-based modeling. Likely the most cold-adapted plant endemic to the Dinaric Mountains in the western Balkan Peninsula, the species has conservation priority in the European Union as its highly fragmented distribution range includes only few small populations. A deep phylogeographic split paralleled by divergent genome size separates the populations into two vicariant groups. Substructure is pronounced within the southeastern group, corresponding to the area's higher geographic complexity. Cerastium dinaricum likely responded to past climatic oscillations with altitudinal range shifts, which, coupled with high topographic complexity of the region and warmer climate in the Holocene, sculptured its present fragmented distribution. Field observations revealed that the species is rarer than previously assumed and, as shown by modeling, severely endangered by global warming as viable habitat was predicted to be reduced by more than 70% by the year 2080. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojun Kou

Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Belowground Plant–Herbivore Interactions Vary among Climate-Driven Range-Expanding Plant Species with Different Degrees of Novel Chemistry

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Rutger A. Wilschut

2017-10-01

Full Text Available An increasing number of studies report plant range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to global warming. However, consequences for interactions with other species in the novel ranges are poorly understood. Here, we examine how range-expanding plant species interact with root-feeding nematodes from the new range. Root-feeding nematodes are ubiquitous belowground herbivores that may impact the structure and composition of natural vegetation. Because of their ecological novelty, we hypothesized that range-expanding plant species will be less suitable hosts for root-feeding nematodes than native congeneric plant species. In greenhouse and lab trials we compared nematode preference and performance of two root-feeding nematode species between range-expanding plant species and their congeneric natives. In order to understand differences in nematode preferences, we compared root volatile profiles of all range-expanders and congeneric natives. Nematode preferences and performances differed substantially among the pairs of range-expanders and natives. The range-expander that had the most unique volatile profile compared to its related native was unattractive and a poor host for nematodes. Other range-expanding plant species that differed less in root chemistry from native congeners, also differed less in nematode attraction and performance. We conclude that the three climate-driven range-expanding plant species studied varied considerably in their chemical novelty compared to their congeneric natives, and therefore affected native root-feeding nematodes in species-specific ways. Our data suggest that through variation in chemical novelty, range-expanding plant species may vary in their impacts on belowground herbivores in the new range.

SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten

2011-01-01

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts...

Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Schneider, Stephen H; Fay, John P; Loarie, Scott R

2008-02-01

Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart

2015-01-01

Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...

Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunrong Mi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

Species Entropies in the Kinetic Range of Collisionless Plasma Turbulence: Particle-in-cell Simulations

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Gary, S. Peter; Zhao, Yinjian; Hughes, R. Scott; Wang, Joseph; Parashar, Tulasi N.

2018-06-01

Three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations of the forward cascade of decaying turbulence in the relatively short-wavelength kinetic range have been carried out as initial-value problems on collisionless, homogeneous, magnetized electron-ion plasma models. The simulations have addressed both whistler turbulence at β i = β e = 0.25 and kinetic Alfvén turbulence at β i = β e = 0.50, computing the species energy dissipation rates as well as the increase of the Boltzmann entropies for both ions and electrons as functions of the initial dimensionless fluctuating magnetic field energy density ε o in the range 0 ≤ ε o ≤ 0.50. This study shows that electron and ion entropies display similar rates of increase and that all four entropy rates increase approximately as ε o , consistent with the assumption that the quasilinear premise is valid for the initial conditions assumed for these simulations. The simulations further predict that the time rates of ion entropy increase should be substantially greater for kinetic Alfvén turbulence than for whistler turbulence.

Thermal sensitivity of cold climate lizards and the importance of distributional ranges.

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Bonino, Marcelo F; Moreno Azócar, Débora L; Schulte, James A; Abdala, Cristian S; Cruz, Félix B

2015-08-01

One of the fundamental goals in macroecology is to understand the relationship among species' geographic ranges, ecophysiology, and climate; however, the mechanisms underlying the distributional geographic patterns observed remain unknown for most organisms. In the case of ectotherms this is particularly important because the knowledge of these interactions may provide a robust framework for predicting the potential consequences of climate change in these organisms. Here we studied the relationship of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance in Patagonian lizards and their geographic ranges, proposing that species with wider distributions have broader plasticity and thermal tolerance. We predicted that lizard thermal physiology is related to the thermal characteristics of the environment. We also explored the presence of trade-offs of some thermal traits and evaluated the potential effects of a predicted scenario of climate change for these species. We examined sixteen species of Liolaemini lizards from Patagonia representing species with different geographic range sizes. We obtained thermal tolerance data and performance curves for each species in laboratory trials. We found evidence supporting the idea that higher physiological plasticity allows species to achieve broader distribution ranges compared to species with restricted distributions. We also found a trade-off between broad levels of plasticity and higher optimum temperatures of performance. Finally, results from contrasting performance curves against the highest environmental temperatures that lizards may face in a future scenario (year 2080) suggest that the activity of species occurring at high latitudes may be unaffected by predicted climatic changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Leapfrogging of tree species provenances? Interaction of microclimate and genetics on upward shifts in tree species' range limits

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Reinhardt, K.; Castanha, C.; Germino, M. J.; Kueppers, L. M.

2011-12-01

The elevation limit of tree growth (alpine treeline) is considered to be constrained by environmental (i.e., thermal) and genetic (i.e., inability to adapt to climatic conditions) limitations to growth. Warming conditions due to climate change are predicted to cause upward shifts in the elevation of alpine treelines, through relief of cold-induced physiological limitations on seedling recruitment beyond current treeline boundaries. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone at Niwot Ridge, CO. We compared differences in microclimate and seedling ecophysiology among sites and between provenances. During the first summer of growth, frequently cloudy skies resulted in similar solar radiation incidence and air and soil temperatures among sites, despite nearly a 500 m-span in elevation across all sites. Preliminary findings suggest that survival of seedlings was similar between the lowest and highest elevations, with greater survival of LO (60%) compared to HI (40%) seedlings at each of these sites. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration), and conductance increased more than 2X with elevation for both provenances, and were 35-77% greater in LO seedlings compared to HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. However, in a common-garden study at low elevation, we observed no differences in carbon or water relations between two naturally-germinated mitochondrial haplotypes of P. flexilis (of narrow and wide-ranging distributions). We did observe water-related thresholds on seedling carbon balance and survival that occurred when soil volumetric water content dropped below 10% and seedling water

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

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Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

2013-01-01

Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae, a widespread agricultural pest.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine N Meynard

Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive

Investigating Effects of Participatory Range Management Plans on Species Diversity in Semirum-Isfahan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Borhani

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In order to investigate the effects of range management plans on species diversity, richness and evenness in Semirum rangelands, 52 sites (28 with treated plan and 24 without treated plan were selected. The non-parametric indices for species richness (Margalof, Menhinick, Jacknife and counting method and species diversity (Simpson, Camargo, Smith and Wilson and modified Nee were compared in two management plans. The mean comparisons were made by independent T Student Test and Mann-Witheny U Test, and correlation was determined between diversity indices and vegetation parameters. Based on the results there was no significant difference between the two management systems regarding environmental features, while the implementation of range management plans caused significant reduction of stocking rate. Among the studied indices, evenness of species in sites without treated plan was significantly more than the sites with treated plan. The correlation matrix showed that there was a significant positive correlation between species richness and vegetation cover, production of perennial plans, and the rangeland condition and trend, while evenness showed significant negative correlation with these indices. Generally, implementation of range management plans has considerable effect on increasing climax species, dominance of Bromus tomentellus and it causes improvement of rangeland condition and reduction of evenness. This behavior could be explained by the balance between species competition and grazing pressure. Further, succession process of the studied communities demonstrates domination of some desirable species, high production and less diversity.

Prediction of failures in linear systems with the use of tolerance ranges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gadzhiev, Ch.M.

1993-01-01

The problem of predicting the technical state of an object can be stated in a general case as that of predicting potential failures on the basis of a quantitative evaluation of the predicted parameters in relation to the set of tolerances on these parameters. The main stages in the prediction are collecting and preparing source data on the prehistory of the predicted phenomenon, forming a mathematical model of this phenomenon, working out the algorithm for the prediction, and adopting a solution from the prediction results. The final two stages of prediction are considered in this article. The prediction algorithm is proposed based on construction of the tolerance range for the signal of error between output coordinates of the system and its mathematical model. A solution regarding possible occurrence of failure in the system is formulated as a result of comparison of the tolerance range and the found confidence interval. 5 refs

Predicting sorption of organic acids to a wide range of carbonized sorbents

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Sigmund, Gabriel; Kah, Melanie; Sun, Huichao; Hofmann, Thilo

2016-04-01

Many contaminants and infochemicals are organic acids that undergo dissociation under environmental conditions. The sorption of dissociated anions to biochar and other carbonized sorbents is typically lower than that of neutral species. It is driven by complex processes that are not yet fully understood. It is known that predictive approaches developed for neutral compounds are unlikely to be suitable for organic acids, due to the effects of dissociation on sorption. Previous studies on the sorption of organic acids to soils have demonstrated that log Dow, which describes the decrease in hydrophobicity of acids upon dissociation, is a useful alternative to log Kow. The aim of the present study was to adapt a log Dow based approach to describe the sorption of organic acids to carbonized sorbents. Batch experiments were performed with a series of 9 sorbents (i.e., carbonized wood shavings, pig manure, and sewage sludge, carbon nanotubes and activated carbon), and four acids commonly used for pesticidal and biocidal purposes (i.e., 2,4-D, MCPA, 2,4-DB, and triclosan). Sorbents were comprehensively characterized, including by N2 and CO2 physisorption, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and elemental analysis. The wide range of sorbents considered allows (i) discussing the mechanisms driving the sorption of neutral and anionic species to biochar, and (ii) their dependency on sorbate and sorbent properties. Results showed that the sorption of the four acids was influenced by factors that are usually not considered for neutral compounds (i.e., pH, ionic strength). Dissociation affected the sorption of the four compounds, and sorption of the anions ranged over five orders of magnitude, thus substantially contributing to sorption in some cases. For prediction purposes, most of the variation in sorption to carbonized sorbents (89%) could be well described with a two-parameter regression equation including log Dow and sorbent specific surface area. The proposed model

Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

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Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

2014-10-01

Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

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King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

Science.gov (United States)

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-12-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and

Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

1995-08-01

Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity.

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Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Murray, Nicholas J

2018-04-01

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range-size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red-list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species' extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale-sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1-1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer-scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid-measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape-scale threats to species and ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Predicting species diversity of benthic communities within turbid nearshore using full-waveform bathymetric LiDAR and machine learners.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antoine Collin

Full Text Available Epi-macrobenthic species richness, abundance and composition are linked with type, assemblage and structural complexity of seabed habitat within coastal ecosystems. However, the evaluation of these habitats is highly hindered by limitations related to both waterborne surveys (slow acquisition, shallow water and low reactivity and water clarity (turbid for most coastal areas. Substratum type/diversity and bathymetric features were elucidated using a supervised method applied to airborne bathymetric LiDAR waveforms over Saint-Siméon-Bonaventure's nearshore area (Gulf of Saint-Lawrence, Québec, Canada. High-resolution underwater photographs were taken at three hundred stations across an 8-km(2 study area. Seven models based upon state-of-the-art machine learning techniques such as Naïve Bayes, Regression Tree, Classification Tree, C 4.5, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and CN2 learners were tested for predicting eight epi-macrobenthic species diversity metrics as a function of the class number. The Random Forest outperformed other models with a three-discretized Simpson index applied to epi-macrobenthic communities, explaining 69% (Classification Accuracy of its variability by mean bathymetry, time range and skewness derived from the LiDAR waveform. Corroborating marine ecological theory, areas with low Simpson epi-macrobenthic diversity responded to low water depths, high skewness and time range, whereas higher Simpson diversity relied upon deeper bottoms (correlated with stronger hydrodynamics and low skewness and time range. The degree of species heterogeneity was therefore positively linked with the degree of the structural complexity of the benthic cover. This work underpins that fully exploited bathymetric LiDAR (not only bathymetrically derived by-products, coupled with proficient machine learner, is able to rapidly predict habitat characteristics at a spatial resolution relevant to epi-macrobenthos diversity, ranging from clear to

Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

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Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2011-01-01

Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

Germination responses of an invasive species in native and non-native ranges

Science.gov (United States)

Jose L. Hierro; Ozkan Eren; Liana Khetsuriani; Alecu Diaconu; Katalin Torok; Daniel Montesinos; Krikor Andonian; David Kikodze; Levan Janoian; Diego Villarreal; Maria Estanga-Mollica; Ragan M. Callaway

2009-01-01

Studying germination in the native and non-native range of a species can provide unique insights into processes of range expansion and adaptation; however, traits related to germination have rarely been compared between native and nonnative populations. In a series of common garden experiments, we explored whether differences in the seasonality of precipitation,...

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

2008-01-01

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

Range-Space Predictive Control for Optimal Robot Motion

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Belda, Květoslav; Böhm, Josef

2008-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 1 (2008), s. 1-7 ISSN 1998-0140 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP102/06/P275 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Accurate manipulation * Industrial robotics * Predictive control * Range-space control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/historie/belda-0305644.pdf

Drought stress limits the geographic ranges of two tree species via different physiological mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderegg, Leander D L; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2016-03-01

Range shifts are among the most ubiquitous ecological responses to anthropogenic climate change and have large consequences for ecosystems. Unfortunately, the ecophysiological forces that constrain range boundaries are poorly understood, making it difficult to mechanistically project range shifts. To explore the physiological mechanisms by which drought stress controls dry range boundaries in trees, we quantified elevational variation in drought tolerance and in drought avoidance-related functional traits of a widespread gymnosperm (ponderosa pine - Pinus ponderosa) and angiosperm (trembling aspen - Populus tremuloides) tree species in the southwestern USA. Specifically, we quantified tree-to-tree variation in growth, water stress (predawn and midday xylem tension), drought avoidance traits (branch conductivity, leaf/needle size, tree height, leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio), and drought tolerance traits (xylem resistance to embolism, hydraulic safety margin, wood density) at the range margins and range center of each species. Although water stress increased and growth declined strongly at lower range margins of both species, ponderosa pine and aspen showed contrasting patterns of clinal trait variation. Trembling aspen increased its drought tolerance at its dry range edge by growing stronger but more carbon dense branch and leaf tissues, implying an increased cost of growth at its range boundary. By contrast, ponderosa pine showed little elevational variation in drought-related traits but avoided drought stress at low elevations by limiting transpiration through stomatal closure, such that its dry range boundary is associated with limited carbon assimilation even in average climatic conditions. Thus, the same climatic factor (drought) may drive range boundaries through different physiological mechanisms - a result that has important implications for process-based modeling approaches to tree biogeography. Further, we show that comparing intraspecific patterns of

New records and range extensions of several species of native bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) from Mississippi

Science.gov (United States)

Griswold, Terry; Ikerd, Harold W; Orr, Michael Christopher

2018-01-01

Abstract Background The native bee fauna of Mississippi, USA has been historically poorly sampled, but is of particular relevance to determine range limits for species that occur in the southern United States. Currently published literature includes 184 species of bees that occur within the state of Mississippi. Additions to the list of native bees known for Mississippi are reported with notes on range, ecology and resources for identification. New information The geographic ranges of seven additional species are extended into the state of Mississippi: Andrena (Melandrena) obscuripennis Smith, 1853, Anthemurgus passiflorae Robertson, 1902, Dieunomia bolliana (Cockerell 1910), Diadasia (Diadasia) enavata (Cresson 1872), Peponapis crassidentata (Cockerell 1949), Triepeolus subnitens Cockerell and Timberlake, 1929 and Brachynomada nimia (Snelling and Rozen 1987). These records raise the total number of published species known from the state to 191. Anthemurgus and Brachynomada are also genera new to Mississippi. PMID:29853776

Tree Species Abundance Predictions in a Tropical Agricultural Landscape with a Supervised Classification Model and Imbalanced Data

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Sarah J. Graves

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Mapping species through classification of imaging spectroscopy data is facilitating research to understand tree species distributions at increasingly greater spatial scales. Classification requires a dataset of field observations matched to the image, which will often reflect natural species distributions, resulting in an imbalanced dataset with many samples for common species and few samples for less common species. Despite the high prevalence of imbalanced datasets in multiclass species predictions, the effect on species prediction accuracy and landscape species abundance has not yet been quantified. First, we trained and assessed the accuracy of a support vector machine (SVM model with a highly imbalanced dataset of 20 tropical species and one mixed-species class of 24 species identified in a hyperspectral image mosaic (350–2500 nm of Panamanian farmland and secondary forest fragments. The model, with an overall accuracy of 62% ± 2.3% and F-score of 59% ± 2.7%, was applied to the full image mosaic (23,000 ha at a 2-m resolution to produce a species prediction map, which suggested that this tropical agricultural landscape is more diverse than what has been presented in field-based studies. Second, we quantified the effect of class imbalance on model accuracy. Model assessment showed a trend where species with more samples were consistently over predicted while species with fewer samples were under predicted. Standardizing sample size reduced model accuracy, but also reduced the level of species over- and under-prediction. This study advances operational species mapping of diverse tropical landscapes by detailing the effect of imbalanced data on classification accuracy and providing estimates of tree species abundance in an agricultural landscape. Species maps using data and methods presented here can be used in landscape analyses of species distributions to understand human or environmental effects, in addition to focusing conservation

Predicting patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes at the rangewide scale for an endangered species: an example of an American warbler

KAUST Repository

Collier, Bret A.

2011-08-25

AIM: Our objective was to identify the distribution of the endangered golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) in fragmented oak-juniper woodlands by applying a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model to better assist decision-makers in identifying suitable habitat across the species breeding range on which conservation or mitigation activities can be focused and thus prioritize management and conservation planning. LOCATION: Texas, USA. METHODS: We used repeated double-observer detection/non-detection surveys of randomly selected (n = 287) patches of potential habitat to evaluate warbler patch-scale presence across the species breeding range. We used a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model with remotely sensed habitat metrics (patch size and landscape composition) to predict patch-scale occupancy of golden-cheeked warblers in the fragmented oak-juniper woodlands of central Texas, USA. RESULTS: Our spatially explicit model indicated that golden-cheeked warbler patch occupancy declined from south to north within the breeding range concomitant with reductions in the availability of large habitat patches. We found that 59% of woodland patches, primarily in the northern and central portions of the warbler\\'s range, were predicted to have occupancy probabilities ≤0.10 with only 3% of patches predicted to have occupancy probabilities >0.90. Our model exhibited high prediction accuracy (area under curve = 0.91) when validated using independently collected warbler occurrence data. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a distinct spatial occurrence gradient for golden-cheeked warblers as well as a relationship between two measurable landscape characteristics. Because habitat-occupancy relationships were key drivers of our model, our results can be used to identify potential areas where conservation actions supporting habitat mitigation can occur and identify areas where conservation of future potential habitat is possible. Additionally, our results can be

Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

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Elizabeth A. Becker

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Archambault, Jennifer M.; Cope, W. Gregory; Kwak, Thomas J.

2018-01-01

AimStudies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.LocationNorth American Atlantic Slope rivers.MethodsTo understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.ResultsBrooding duration (p  .10).Main conclusionsOur results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ren-Yan Duan

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s. Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s, and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

Identification of the same polyomavirus species in different African horseshoe bat species is indicative of short-range host-switching events.

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, Michael; Gonzalez, Gabriel; Sasaki, Michihito; Dool, Serena E; Ito, Kimihito; Ishii, Akihiro; Hang'ombe, Bernard M; Mweene, Aaron S; Teeling, Emma C; Hall, William W; Orba, Yasuko; Sawa, Hirofumi

2017-10-06

Polyomaviruses (PyVs) are considered to be highly host-specific in different mammalian species, with no well-supported evidence for host-switching events. We examined the species diversity and host specificity of PyVs in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.), a broadly distributed and highly speciose mammalian genus. We annotated six PyV genomes, comprising four new PyV species, based on pairwise identity within the large T antigen (LTAg) coding region. Phylogenetic comparisons revealed two instances of highly related PyV species, one in each of the Alphapolyomavirus and Betapolyomavirus genera, present in different horseshoe bat host species (Rhinolophus blasii and R. simulator), suggestive of short-range host-switching events. The two pairs of Rhinolophus PyVs in different horseshoe bat host species were 99.9 and 88.8 % identical with each other over their respective LTAg coding sequences and thus constitute the same virus species. To corroborate the species identification of the bat hosts, we analysed mitochondrial cytb and a large nuclear intron dataset derived from six independent and neutrally evolving loci for bat taxa of interest. Bayesian estimates of the ages of the most recent common ancestors suggested that the near-identical and more distantly related PyV species diverged approximately 9.1E4 (5E3-2.8E5) and 9.9E6 (4E6-18E6) years before the present, respectively, in contrast to the divergence times of the bat host species: 12.4E6 (10.4E6-15.4E6). Our findings provide evidence that short-range host-switching of PyVs is possible in horseshoe bats, suggesting that PyV transmission between closely related mammalian species can occur.

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

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Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2014-07-01

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

Predictions for an invaded world: A strategy to predict the distribution of native and non-indigenous species at multiple scales

Science.gov (United States)

Reusser, D.A.; Lee, H.

2008-01-01

Habitat models can be used to predict the distributions of marine and estuarine non-indigenous species (NIS) over several spatial scales. At an estuary scale, our goal is to predict the estuaries most likely to be invaded, but at a habitat scale, the goal is to predict the specific locations within an estuary that are most vulnerable to invasion. As an initial step in evaluating several habitat models, model performance for a suite of benthic species with reasonably well-known distributions on the Pacific coast of the US needs to be compared. We discuss the utility of non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for predicting habitat- and estuary-scale distributions of native and NIS. NPMR incorporates interactions among variables, allows qualitative and categorical variables, and utilizes data on absence as well as presence. Preliminary results indicate that NPMR generally performs well at both spatial scales and that distributions of NIS are predicted as well as those of native species. For most species, latitude was the single best predictor, although similar model performance could be obtained at both spatial scales with combinations of other habitat variables. Errors of commission were more frequent at a habitat scale, with omission and commission errors approximately equal at an estuary scale. ?? 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.

Habitat area and climate stability determine geographical variation in plant species range sizes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Enquist, Brian J.; McGill, Brian J.

2013-01-01

Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85,000 ...

Threatened species richness along a Himalayan elevational gradient: quantifying the influences of human population density, range size, and geometric constraints.

Science.gov (United States)

Paudel, Prakash Kumar; Sipos, Jan; Brodie, Jedediah F

2018-02-07

A crucial step in conserving biodiversity is to identify the distributions of threatened species and the factors associated with species threat status. In the biodiversity hotspot of the Himalaya, very little is known about which locations harbour the highest diversity of threatened species and whether diversity of such species is related to area, mid-domain effects (MDE), range size, or human density. In this study, we assessed the drivers of variation in richness of threatened birds, mammals, reptiles, actinopterygii, and amphibians along an elevational gradient in Nepal Himalaya. Although geometric constraints (MDE), species range size, and human population density were significantly related to threatened species richness, the interaction between range size and human population density was of greater importance. Threatened species richness was positively associated with human population density and negatively associated with range size. In areas with high richness of threatened species, species ranges tend to be small. The preponderance of species at risk of extinction at low elevations in the subtropical biodiversity hotspot could be due to the double impact of smaller range sizes and higher human density.

Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Fernández

Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

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Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most

NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

2017-12-01

NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P.

2014-01-01

Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR–SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. - Highlights: • We investigate relationships between σp and log-NOEC in eight species. • The QICAR–SSD model, FACR, and CMC/CCC were used to predict CCCs. • They are as a supplement to screening for toxicities, criteria and standards. - CCCs for 34 metals/metalloids were predicted by use of QICAR–SSD model and FACR method

A short-range ensemble prediction system for southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Park, R

2012-10-01

Full Text Available system for southern Africa R PARK, WA LANDMAN AND F ENGELBRECHT CSIR, PO Box 395, Pretoria, South Africa, 0001 Email: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx@csir.co.za ? www.csir.co.za INTRODUCTION This research has been conducted in order to develop a short-range ensemble... stream_source_info Park_2012.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7211 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Park_2012.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 A short-range ensemble prediction...

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

Science.gov (United States)

Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

2009-01-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanda, L Leann; Fuller, Todd K; Sievert, Paul R; Kellogg, Robert L

2009-06-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations.

Species are not most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or climatic niche.

Science.gov (United States)

Dallas, Tad; Decker, Robin R; Hastings, Alan

2017-12-01

The pervasive idea that species should be most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or centre of their climatic niche is a key assumption in many existing ecological hypotheses and has been declared a general macroecological rule. However, empirical support for decreasing population abundance with increasing distance from geographic range or climatic niche centre (distance-abundance relationships) remains fairly weak. We examine over 1400 bird, mammal, fish and tree species to provide a thorough test of distance-abundance relationships, and their associations with species traits and phylogenetic relationships. We failed to detect consistent distance-abundance relationships, and found no association between distance-abundance slope and species traits or phylogenetic relatedness. Together, our analyses suggest that distance-abundance relationships may be rare, difficult to detect, or are an oversimplification of the complex biogeographical forces that determine species spatial abundance patterns. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Species-specific markers for the differential diagnosis of Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli and polymorphisms detection in Trypanosoma rangeli.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Keila Adriana Magalhães; Fajardo, Emanuella Francisco; Baptista, Rodrigo P; Macedo, Andrea Mara; Lages-Silva, Eliane; Ramírez, Luis Eduardo; Pedrosa, André Luiz

2014-06-01

Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli are kinetoplastid parasites which are able to infect humans in Central and South America. Misdiagnosis between these trypanosomes can be avoided by targeting barcoding sequences or genes of each organism. This work aims to analyze the feasibility of using species-specific markers for identification of intraspecific polymorphisms and as target for diagnostic methods by PCR. Accordingly, primers which are able to specifically detect T. cruzi or T. rangeli genomic DNA were characterized. The use of intergenic regions, generally divergent in the trypanosomatids, and the serine carboxypeptidase gene were successful. Using T. rangeli genomic sequences for the identification of group-specific polymorphisms and a polymorphic AT(n) dinucleotide repeat permitted the classification of the strains into two groups, which are entirely coincident with T. rangeli main lineages, KP1 (+) and KP1 (-), previously determined by kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) characterization. The sequences analyzed totalize 622 bp (382 bp represent a hypothetical protein sequence, and 240 bp represent an anonymous sequence), and of these, 581 (93.3%) are conserved sites and 41 bp (6.7%) are polymorphic, with 9 transitions (21.9%), 2 transversions (4.9%), and 30 (73.2%) insertion/deletion events. Taken together, the species-specific markers analyzed may be useful for the development of new strategies for the accurate diagnosis of infections. Furthermore, the identification of T. rangeli polymorphisms has a direct impact in the understanding of the population structure of this parasite.

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges.

Science.gov (United States)

Villalobos, Fabricio; Carotenuto, Francesco; Raia, Pasquale; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F

2016-04-05

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes--speciation, extinction and dispersal--in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhn, Emilien; Lenoir, Jonathan; Piedallu, Christian; Gégout, Jean-Claude

2016-06-01

Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sexual selection predicts species richness across the animal kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Janicke, Tim; Ritchie, Michael G; Morrow, Edward H; Marie-Orleach, Lucas

2018-05-16

Our improving knowledge of the animal tree of life consistently demonstrates that some taxa diversify more rapidly than others, but what contributes to this variation remains poorly understood. An influential hypothesis proposes that selection arising from competition for mating partners plays a key role in promoting speciation. However, empirical evidence showing a link between proxies of this sexual selection and species richness is equivocal. Here, we collected standardized metrics of sexual selection for a broad range of animal taxa, and found that taxonomic families characterized by stronger sexual selection on males show relatively higher species richness. Thus, our data support the hypothesis that sexual selection elevates species richness. This could occur either by promoting speciation and/or by protecting species against extinction. © 2018 The Author(s).

How do low dispersal species establish large range sizes? The case of the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Lars Lønsmann; Rannap, Riinu; Thomsen, Philip Francis

2013-01-01

important than species phylogeny or local spatial attributes. In this study we used the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus a philopatric species of conservation concern in Europe as a model to explain large range size and to support effective conservation measures for such species that also have limited...... systems and wetlands which used to be highly connected throughout the central plains of Europe. Our data suggest that a broad habitat niche can prevent landscape elements from becoming barriers for species like G. bilineatus. Therefore, we question the usefulness of site protection as conservation...... measures for G. bilineatus and similar philopatric species. Instead, conservation actions should be focused at the landscape level to ensure a long-term viability of such species across their range....

New records and range extensions of several species of native bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) from Mississippi

Science.gov (United States)

Currently published literature includes 184 species of bees that occur within the state of Mississippi. The geographic ranges of seven additional species are extended into the state of Mississippi: Andrena (Melandrena) obscuripennis Smith, 1853, Anthemurgus passiflorae Robertson, 1902, Dieunomia bol...

Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) model.

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P

2014-05-01

Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR-SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting seasonal habitat use, and predicted range of two tropical deer in Indonesian rainforest

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Dede Aulia; Gonzalez, Georges; Haryono, Mohammad; Muhtarom, Aom; Firdaus, Asep Yayus; Aulagnier, Stéphane

2017-07-01

There is an urgent recognized need for conservation of tropical forest deer. In order to identify some environmental factors affecting conservation, we analyzed the seasonal habitat use of two Indonesian deer species, Axis kuhlii in Bawean Island and Muntiacus muntjak in south-western Java Island, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables. Camera trapping was performed in different habitat types during both wet and dry season to record these elusive species. The highest number of photographs was recorded in secondary forest and during the dry season for both Bawean deer and red muntjac. In models, anthropogenic and climatic variables were the main predictors of habitat use. Distances to cultivated area and to settlement were the most important for A. kuhlii in the dry season. Distances to cultivated area and annual rainfall were significant for M. muntjak in both seasons. Then we modelled their predictive range using Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We concluded that forest landscape is the fundamental scale for deer management, and that secondary forests are potentially important landscape elements for deer conservation. Important areas for conservation were identified accounting of habitat transformation in both study areas.

What Limits the Distribution of Liriomyza huidobrensis and Its Congener Liriomyza sativae in Their Native Niche: When Temperature and Competition Affect Species' Distribution Range in Guatemala.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Castañeda, G; MacVean, C; Cardona, C; Hof, A R

2017-07-01

Factors limiting distribution range for most species are generally unknown regardless of whether they are native or invasive. We studied factors that could enable or restrict the distribution of two cosmopolitan invasive leafminer fly species, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) and Liriomyza sativae (Blanchard) in their native niche. In order to test which ecological and environmental factors affect leafminer distribution we conducted thermal tolerance assays, sampled along elevation gradients and modeled species distribution. Findings from the field and rearing chambers showed a physiological restriction due to high temperatures for L. huidobrensis at 28-29 °C, above which adult emergence is compromised. We also found that maximum temperatures below 22 °C, typical of tropical highlands, favored L. huidobrensis. L. sativae was found across a wider temperature range (i.e., from 21 to 36 °C) in Guatemala. Our finding of a physiological threshold in temperature for L. huidobrensis may enable us to predict its invasive risk when combined with the environmental conditions at horticultural ports of entry and the global agricultural landscape. Further, it strengthens our predictions on shifts in distribution of the leafminer fly under future climate. We also found a temperature mediated competitive exclusion interaction between the two herbivore species, where L. sativae occurred at temperatures < 22 °C only in the absence of L. huidobrensis. We show that parasitoids had a negative effect on the leafminer flies, which varied with host plant. Finally, we show the importance of taking a multiaspect approach when investigating what limits distribution and invasiveness of a species. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.

2018-03-01

Arctic Cyclones (ACs) can have a significant impact on the Arctic region. Therefore, the accurate prediction of ACs is important in anticipating their associated environmental and societal costs. This study investigates the predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone (AC12) that exhibited a minimum central pressure of 964 hPa on 6 August 2012, using five medium-range ensemble forecasts. We show that the development and position of AC12 were better predicted in forecasts initialized on and after 4 August 2012. In addition, the position of AC12 was more predictable than its development. A comparison of ensemble members, classified by the error in predictability of the development and position of AC12, revealed that an accurate prediction of upper-level fields, particularly temperature, was important for the prediction of this event. The predicted position of AC12 was influenced mainly by the prediction of the polar vortex, whereas the predicted development of AC12 was dependent primarily on the prediction of the merging of upper-level warm cores. Consequently, an accurate prediction of the polar vortex position and the development of the warm core through merging resulted in better prediction of AC12.

Cross-species mapping of bidirectional promoters enables prediction of unannotated 5' UTRs and identification of species-specific transcripts

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Lewin Harris A

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Bidirectional promoters are shared regulatory regions that influence the expression of two oppositely oriented genes. This type of regulatory architecture is found more frequently than expected by chance in the human genome, yet many specifics underlying the regulatory design are unknown. Given that the function of most orthologous genes is similar across species, we hypothesized that the architecture and regulation of bidirectional promoters might also be similar across species, representing a core regulatory structure and enabling annotation of these regions in additional mammalian genomes. Results By mapping the intergenic distances of genes in human, chimpanzee, bovine, murine, and rat, we show an enrichment for pairs of genes equal to or less than 1,000 bp between their adjacent 5' ends ("head-to-head" compared to pairs of genes that fall in the same orientation ("head-to-tail" or whose 3' ends are side-by-side ("tail-to-tail". A representative set of 1,369 human bidirectional promoters was mapped to orthologous sequences in other mammals. We confirmed predictions for 5' UTRs in nine of ten manual picks in bovine based on comparison to the orthologous human promoter set and in six of seven predictions in human based on comparison to the bovine dataset. The two predictions that did not have orthology as bidirectional promoters in the other species resulted from unique events that initiated transcription in the opposite direction in only those species. We found evidence supporting the independent emergence of bidirectional promoters from the family of five RecQ helicase genes, which gained their bidirectional promoters and partner genes independently rather than through a duplication process. Furthermore, by expanding our comparisons from pairwise to multispecies analyses we developed a map representing a core set of bidirectional promoters in mammals. Conclusion We show that the orthologous positions of bidirectional

Can nutrient status of four woody plant species be predicted using field spectrometry?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferwerda, J.G.; Skidmore, A.K.

2007-01-01

This paper demonstrates the potential of hyperspectral remote sensing to predict the chemical composition (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorous, calcium, potassium, sodium, and magnesium) of three tree species (i.e., willow, mopane and olive) and one shrub species (i.e., heather). Reflectance spectra,

Determination of dose ranges of gamma rays to induce specific changes in three ornamental species

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez J, J.

2011-11-01

In order to confirming the possibility of to settle a dose range that takes place directly and not at random, a specific effect independently of the species that is were produced several similar organisms to three ornamental species took place via meristems cultivation: Petunia hybrid, Impatiens walleriana and Sprekelia formosissima, same that were irradiated in an irradiator Gamma cell 220, to different dose: 0, 3.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5 and 20 Gy. Later on, of the plants treated via in vitro the subsequent generations were obtained until the M 4 . To determine the DL 50 and the possible good doses, the survival parameters, development, morphogenesis and height were evaluated during 8 weeks, interpreting based on them, the possible physiologic and genetic alterations induced by the radiation. The established DL 50 were: 7.5 Gy (Petunia), 19.0 Gy (Impatiens) and 12.0 Gy (Sprekelia). Based on the DL 50 of each species, a range of coincident dose settled down that produces a similar effect in the three species: a range of DL 23 to the DL 50 induces and alteration in the cytokinins production affecting directly in the leaves number, buds and plants taken place by meristem, also a range of DL 32 - DL 50 impacts in the auxins production altering to the radicule system. However, when being superimposed the dose is considered that the investigation should continue. (Author)

The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

2016-01-01

How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

Status of endangered and threatened plant species on Tonopah Test Range: a survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhoads, W.A.; Cochrane, S.A.; Williams, M.P.

1979-10-01

Six species under consideration by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) for endangered or threatened status were found on or near the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) in southern central Nevada. Based on recognized threats to these species, their overall distribution, rarity, and other factors, status recommendations were prepared for Sandia Corporation. In addition, ten species that occur in the vicinity of TTR, and which may yet be found on TTR, are discussed in brief. Each species is discussed in relation to distribution, rarity, taxonomy, habitat requirements, endangerment, assessment of status, and proposed protection and monitoring needs. Construction activities and off-road vehicle travel are the most prominent man-caused threats to species on TTR; habitat destruction by trampling and over-grazing by feral horses and non-permit cattle significantly modifies habitats of certain species. We recommend two kinds of protective measures. First is the planning of activities so that habitats, particularly the suggested protected habitats, are not disturbed. Second, and directed to the same end, off-road traffic should be curtailed in the regions of the proposed protected habitats

Is the climate right for pleistocene rewilding? Using species distribution models to extrapolate climatic suitability for mammals across continents.

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Orien M W Richmond

Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of

A short-range weather prediction system for South Africa based on a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The accurate prediction of rainfall events, in terms of their timing, location and rainfall depth, is important to a wide range of social and economic applications. At many operational weather prediction centres, as is also the case at the South African Weather Service, forecasters use deterministic model outputs as guidance to ...

A Macrophysiological Analysis of Energetic Constraints on Geographic Range Size in Mammals

Science.gov (United States)

Ceballos, Gerardo; Steele, Michael A.

2013-01-01

Physiological processes are essential for understanding the distribution and abundance of organisms, and recently, with widespread attention to climate change, physiology has been ushered back to the forefront of ecological thinking. We present a macrophysiological analysis of the energetics of geographic range size using combined data on body size, basal metabolic rate (BMR), phylogeny and range properties for 574 species of mammals. We propose three mechanisms by which interspecific variation in BMR should relate positively to geographic range size: (i) Thermal Plasticity Hypothesis, (ii) Activity Levels/Dispersal Hypothesis, and (iii) Energy Constraint Hypothesis. Although each mechanism predicts a positive correlation between BMR and range size, they can be further distinguished based on the shape of the relationship they predict. We found evidence for the predicted positive relationship in two dimensions of energetics: (i) the absolute, mass-dependent dimension (BMR) and (ii) the relative, mass-independent dimension (MIBMR). The shapes of both relationships were similar and most consistent with that expected from the Energy Constraint Hypothesis, which was proposed previously to explain the classic macroecological relationship between range size and body size in mammals and birds. The fact that this pattern holds in the MIBMR dimension indicates that species with supra-allometric metabolic rates require among the largest ranges, above and beyond the increasing energy demands that accrue as an allometric consequence of large body size. The relationship is most evident at high latitudes north of the Tropics, where large ranges and elevated MIBMR are most common. Our results suggest that species that are most vulnerable to extinction from range size reductions are both large-bodied and have elevated MIBMR, but also, that smaller species with elevated MIBMR are at heightened risk. We also provide insights into the global latitudinal trends in range size and MIBMR

Can temporal and spatial NDVI predict regional bird-species richness?

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Sebastián Nieto

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding the distribution of the species and its controls over biogeographic scales is still a major challenge in ecology. National Park Networks provide an opportunity to assess the relationship between ecosystem functioning and biodiversity in areas with low human impacts. We tested the productivity–biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the available energy, and the ​variability–biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the diversity of habitats. The available energy and habitat heterogeneity estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI was shown as a good predictor of bird-species richness for a diverse set of biomes in previously published studies. However, there is not a universal relationship between NDVI and bird-species richness. Here we tested if the NDVI can predict bird species richness in areas with low human impact in Argentina. Using a dataset from the National Park Network of Argentina we found that the best predictor of bird species richness was the minimum value of NDVI per year which explained 75% of total variability. The inclusion of the spatial heterogeneity of NDVI improved the explanation power to 80%. Minimum NDVI was highly correlated with precipitation and winter temperature. Our analysis provides a tool for assessing bird-species richness at scales on which land-use planning practitioners make their decisions for Southern South America.

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Leon; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Bos, Merijn; de Groot, G Arjen; Kleijn, David; Potts, Simon G; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart; Scheper, Jeroen; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2015-10-01

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs' usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and

Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

2018-09-01

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting weed problems in maize cropping by species distribution modelling

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Bürger, Jana

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Increasing maize cultivation and changed cropping practices promote the selection of typical maize weeds that may also profit strongly from climate change. Predicting potential weed problems is of high interest for plant production. Within the project KLIFF, experiments were combined with species distribution modelling for this task in the region of Lower Saxony, Germany. For our study, we modelled ecological and damage niches of nine weed species that are significant and wide spread in maize cropping in a number of European countries. Species distribution models describe the ecological niche of a species, these are the environmental conditions under which a species can maintain a vital population. It is also possible to estimate a damage niche, i.e. the conditions under which a species causes damage in agricultural crops. For this, we combined occurrence data of European national data bases with high resolution climate, soil and land use data. Models were also projected to simulated climate conditions for the time horizon 2070 - 2100 in order to estimate climate change effects. Modelling results indicate favourable conditions for typical maize weed occurrence virtually all over the study region, but only a few species are important in maize cropping. This is in good accordance with the findings of an earlier maize weed monitoring. Reaction to changing climate conditions is species-specific, for some species neutral (E. crus-galli, other species may gain (Polygonum persicaria or loose (Viola arvensis large areas of suitable habitats. All species with damage potential under present conditions will remain important in maize cropping, some more species will gain regional importance (Calystegia sepium, Setara viridis.

Species boundaries and host range of tortoise mites (Uropodoidea phoretic on bark beetles (Scolytinae, using morphometric and molecular markers.

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Wayne Knee

Full Text Available Understanding the ecology and evolutionary history of symbionts and their hosts requires accurate taxonomic knowledge, including clear species boundaries and phylogenies. Tortoise mites (Mesostigmata: Uropodoidea are among the most diverse arthropod associates of bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae, but their taxonomy and host associations are largely unstudied. We tested the hypotheses that (1 morphologically defined species are supported by molecular data, and that (2 bark beetle uropodoids with a broad host range comprise cryptic species. To do so, we assessed the species boundaries of uropodoid mites collected from 51 host species, across 11 countries and 103 sites, using morphometric data as well as partial cytochrome oxidase I (COI and nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA (28S. Overall, morphologically defined species were confirmed by molecular datasets, with a few exceptions. Twenty-nine of the 36 uropodoid species (Trichouropoda, Nenteria and Uroobovella collected in this study had narrow host ranges, while seven species had putative broad host ranges. In all but one species, U. orri, our data supported the existence of these host generalists, which contrasts with the typical finding that widespread generalists are actually complexes of cryptic specialists.

Leaf Area Prediction Using Three Alternative Sampling Methods for Seven Sierra Nevada Conifer Species

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Dryw A. Jones

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Prediction of projected tree leaf area using allometric relationships with sapwood cross-sectional area is common in tree- and stand-level production studies. Measuring sapwood is difficult and often requires destructive sampling. This study tested multiple leaf area prediction models across seven diverse conifer species in the Sierra Nevada of California. The best-fit whole tree leaf area prediction model for overall simplicity, accuracy, and utility for all seven species was a nonlinear model with basal area as the primary covariate. A new non-destructive procedure was introduced to extend the branch summation approach to leaf area data collection on trees that cannot be destructively sampled. There were no significant differences between fixed effects assigned to sampling procedures, indicating that data from the tested sampling procedures can be combined for whole tree leaf area modeling purposes. These results indicate that, for the species sampled, accurate leaf area estimates can be obtained through partially-destructive sampling and using common forest inventory data.

A comparison on radar range profiles between in-flight measurements and RCS-predictions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heiden, R. van der; Ewijk, L.J. van; Groen, F.C.A.

1998-01-01

The validation of Radar Cross Section (RCS) prediction techniques against real measurements is crucial to acquire confidence in predictions when measurements are nut available. In this paper we present the results of a comparison on one-dimensional signatures, i.e. radar range profiles. The profiles

Intermediate-term middle-range predictions in Italy: a review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V.; Romashkova, L.; Panza, G.F.

2003-11-01

The Italian territory has been object of several studies devoted to the analysis of seismicity and to earthquake precursors' research. Although a number of observations have been claimed to precede large earthquakes, only few systematic studies have been carried out and almost no test of their performances is available up to now. In this paper we review the application to the Italian territory of two formally defined intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms, namely CN and M8S. The general methodology common to the two different algorithms makes use of general concepts of pattern recognition that permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors, and allows for a systematic monitoring of seismicity, as well as for a widespread testing of the prediction performances. Italy represents the only region of moderate seismic activity where the M8S and CN algorithms are applied simultaneously for the routine monitoring. Significant efforts have been made to minimize the intrinsic space uncertainty of predictions and the subjectivity of the definition of the areas where precursors should be identified. Several experiments have been dedicated to assess the robustness of the methodology against the unavoidable uncertainties in the data. With these results acquired, predictions are routinely issued by CN algorithm, since January 1998, and by M8S algorithm, since January 2002. Starting in July 2003 an experiment has been launched for the real-time test of M8S and CN predictions. (author)

Successful range-expanding plants experience less above-ground and below-ground enemy impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Engelkes, Tim; Morriën, Elly; Verhoeven, Koen J F; Bezemer, T Martijn; Biere, Arjen; Harvey, Jeffrey A; McIntyre, Lauren M; Tamis, Wil L M; van der Putten, Wim H

2008-12-18

Many species are currently moving to higher latitudes and altitudes. However, little is known about the factors that influence the future performance of range-expanding species in their new habitats. Here we show that range-expanding plant species from a riverine area were better defended against shoot and root enemies than were related native plant species growing in the same area. We grew fifteen plant species with and without non-coevolved polyphagous locusts and cosmopolitan, polyphagous aphids. Contrary to our expectations, the locusts performed more poorly on the range-expanding plant species than on the congeneric native plant species, whereas the aphids showed no difference. The shoot herbivores reduced the biomass of the native plants more than they did that of the congeneric range expanders. Also, the range-expanding plants developed fewer pathogenic effects in their root-zone soil than did the related native species. Current predictions forecast biodiversity loss due to limitations in the ability of species to adjust to climate warming conditions in their range. Our results strongly suggest that the plants that shift ranges towards higher latitudes and altitudes may include potential invaders, as the successful range expanders may experience less control by above-ground or below-ground enemies than the natives.

Predicting summer site occupancy for an invasive species, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula, in an urban environment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy L Adams

Full Text Available Invasive species are often favoured in fragmented, highly-modified, human-dominated landscapes such as urban areas. Because successful invasive urban adapters can occupy habitat that is quite different from that in their original range, effective management programmes for invasive species in urban areas require an understanding of distribution, habitat and resource requirements at a local scale that is tailored to the fine-scale heterogeneity typical of urban landscapes. The common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula is one of New Zealand's most destructive invasive pest species. As brushtail possums traditionally occupy forest habitat, control in New Zealand has focussed on rural and forest habitats, and forest fragments in cities. However, as successful urban adapters, possums may be occupying a wider range of habitats. Here we use site occupancy methods to determine the distribution of brushtail possums across five distinguishable urban habitat types during summer, which is when possums have the greatest impacts on breeding birds. We collected data on possum presence/absence and habitat characteristics, including possible sources of supplementary food (fruit trees, vegetable gardens, compost heaps, and the availability of forest fragments from 150 survey locations. Predictive distribution models constructed using the programme PRESENCE revealed that while occupancy rates were highest in forest fragments, possums were still present across a large proportion of residential habitat with occupancy decreasing as housing density increased and green cover decreased. The presence of supplementary food sources was important in predicting possum occupancy, which may reflect the high nutritional value of these food types. Additionally, occupancy decreased as the proportion of forest fragment decreased, indicating the importance of forest fragments in determining possum distribution. Control operations to protect native birds from possum predation in

Pre-damage biomass allocation and not invasiveness predicts tolerance to damage in seedlings of woody species in Hawaii.

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Lurie, Matthew H; Barton, Kasey E; Daehler, Curtis C

2017-12-01

Plant-herbivore interactions have been predicted to play a fundamental role in plant invasions, although support for this assertion from previous research is mixed. While plants may escape from specialist herbivores in their introduced ranges, herbivory from generalists is common. Tolerance traits may allow non-native plants to mitigate the negative consequences of generalist herbivory that they cannot avoid in their introduced range. Here we address whether tolerance to herbivory, quantified as survival and compensatory growth, is associated with plant invasion success in Hawaii and investigate traits that may enhance tolerance in seedlings, the life stage most susceptible to herbivory. In a greenhouse experiment, we measured seedling tolerance to simulated herbivory through mechanical damage (50% leaf removal) of 16 non-native woody plant species differing in invasion status (invasive vs. non-invasive). Seedlings were grown for 2 weeks following damage and analyzed for biomass to determine whether damaged plants could fully compensate for the lost leaf tissue. Over 99% of all seedlings survived defoliation. Although species varied significantly in their levels of compensation, there was no consistent difference between invasive and non-invasive species. Seedlings of 11 species undercompensated and remained substantially smaller than control seedlings 2 weeks after damage; four species were close to compensating, while one species overcompensated. Across species, compensation was positively associated with an increased investment in potential storage reserves, specifically cotyledons and roots, suggesting that these organs provide resources that help seedlings re-grow following damage. Our results add to a growing consensus that pre-damage growth patterns determine tolerance to damage, even in young seedlings which have relatively low biomass. The lack of higher tolerance in highly invasive species may suggest that invaders overcome herbivory barriers to invasion

Trait-based analysis of decline in plant species ranges during the 20th century: a regional comparison between the UK and Estonia.

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Laanisto, Lauri; Sammul, Marek; Kull, Tiiu; Macek, Petr; Hutchings, Michael J

2015-02-02

Although the distribution ranges and abundance of many plant species have declined dramatically in recent decades, detailed analysis of these changes and their cause have only become possible following the publication of second- and third-generation national distribution atlases. Decline can now be compared both between species and in different parts of species' ranges. We extracted data from distribution atlases to compare range persistence of 736 plant species common to both the UK and Estonia between survey periods encompassing almost the same years (1969 and 1999 in the UK and 1970 and 2004 in Estonia). We determined which traits were most closely associated with variation in species persistence, whether these were the same in each country, and the extent to which they explained differences in persistence between the countries. Mean range size declined less in Estonia than in the UK (24.3% vs. 30.3%). One-third of species in Estonia (239) maintained >90% of their distribution range compared with one-fifth (141) in the UK. In Estonia, 99 species lost >50% of their range compared with 127 species in the UK. Persistence was very positively related to original range in both countries. Major differences in species persistence between the studied countries were primarily determined by biogeographic (affiliation to floristic element) and ecoevolutionary (plant strategy) factors. In contrast, within-country persistence was most strongly determined by tolerance of anthropogenic activities. Decline of species in the families Orchidaceae and Potamogetonaceae was significantly greater in the UK than in Estonia. Almost all of the 736 common and native European plant species in our study are currently declining in their range due to pressure from anthropogenic activities. Those species with low tolerance of human activity, with biotic pollination vectors and in the families referred to above are the most vulnerable, especially where human population density is high. © 2015

Relations between species rarity, vulnerability, and range contraction for a beetle group in a densely populated region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot.

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Fattorini, Simone

2014-02-01

Rarity is often considered an indication of species extinction risk, and it is frequently used to obtain measures of species vulnerability. However, there is no strong evidence of a correlation between species vulnerability and threat. Moreover, there is no consensus about how rarity should be measured. I used a multidimensional characterization of species rarity to calculate a vulnerability index for tenebrionid beetles inhabiting an Italian region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. I used different metrics to examine 3 dimensions of rarity: species range, ecology, and population. Species with rarity values below the median were scored as rare for each dimension. I combined rarity scores into a vulnerability index. I then correlated species vulnerability with range trends (expanded vs. contracted). Different measures of the same rarity dimension were strongly correlated and produced similar vulnerability scores. This result indicates rarity-based vulnerability estimates are slightly affected by the way a certain rarity dimension is measured. Vulnerability was correlated with range trends; species with the highest vulnerability had the strongest range contraction. However, a large number of common species also underwent range contraction in the last 50 years, and there was no clear relation between range contraction and their ecology. This indicates that in general human-induced environmental changes affected species irrespective of their assumed vulnerability and that focusing only on rare species may severely bias perceptions of the extent of species decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

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Firn, Jennifer; Moore, Joslin L.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Seabloom, Eric W.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harpole, W. Stanley; Cleland, Elsa E.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Knops, Johannes M.H.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Pyke, David A.; Farrell, Kelly A.; Bakker, John D.; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Adler, Peter B.; Collins, Scott L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Crawley, Michael J.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Hautier, Yann; Morgan, John W.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kay, Adam; McCulley, Rebecca; Davies, Kendi F.; Stevens, Carly J.; Chu, Cheng-Jin; Holl, Karen D.; Klein, Julia A.; Fay, Phillip A.; Hagenah, Nicole; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Buckley, Yvonne M.

2011-01-01

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites - grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition

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Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad

1996-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...

Forecasting the poleward range expansion of an intertidal species driven by climate alterations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raquel Xavier

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Accurate distributional models can be used to reliably predict the response of organisms to climatic changes. Though such models have been extensively applied to terrestrial organisms, they have hardly ever been applied to the marine environment. Recent changes in the distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica (L. were previously modelled with Classification and Regression Tree (CART and the results revealed that increases in temperature were the major driver of those changes. However, the accuracy scores during the validation of the model were unsatisfactory, preventing its use for forecasting purposes. To fulfil this objective, in the present study a more robust method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, was employed to produce a model suited to forecasting changes in the distribution of P. rustica. Results confirmed that the ANN model behaved better than the CART, and that it could be used for forecasting future distributional scenarios. The model forecasts that by the 2020s P. rustica is likely to expand its range at least 1000 km northwards. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the dispersal limitations of this species, but if such an expansion took place, major changes in the colonized ecosystems are expected due to the key role of limpets in intertidal communities.

Species distribution models may misdirect assisted migration: insights from the introduction of Douglas-fir to Europe.

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Boiffin, Juliette; Badeau, Vincent; Bréda, Nathalie

2017-03-01

Species distribution models (SDMs), which statistically relate species occurrence to climatic variables, are widely used to identify areas suitable for species growth under future climates and to plan for assisted migration. When SDMs are projected across times or spaces, it is assumed that species climatic requirements remain constant. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is rare, and SDM predictions could be biased. Historical human-aided movements of tree species can shed light on the reliability of SDM predictions in planning for assisted migration. We used Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), a North American conifer introduced into Europe during the mid-19th century, as a case-study to test niche conservatism. We combined transcontinental data sets of Douglas-fir occurrence and climatic predictors to compare the realized niches between native and introduced ranges. We calibrated a SDM in the native range and compared areas predicted to be climatically suitable with observed presences. The realized niches in the native and introduced ranges showed very limited overlap. The SDM calibrated in North America had very high predictive power in the native range, but failed to predict climatic suitability in Europe where Douglas-fir grows in climates that have no analogue in the native range. We review the ecological mechanisms and silvicultural practices that can trigger such shifts in realized niches. Retrospective analysis of tree species introduction revealed that the assumption of niche conservatism is erroneous. As a result, distributions predicted by SDM are importantly biased. There is a high risk that assisted migration programs may be misdirected and target inadequate species or introduction zones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Wrong, but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range-wide data under biased sampling.

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El-Gabbas, Ahmed; Dormann, Carsten F

2018-02-01

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence-only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species-specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point-process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor ("prior") to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias-free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Risto K Heikkinen

Full Text Available Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina and one generalist (Issoria lathonia. Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity, with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

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Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

2013-01-01

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

DETOMIDINE AND BUTORPHANOL FOR STANDING SEDATION IN A RANGE OF ZOO-KEPT UNGULATE SPECIES.

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Bouts, Tim; Dodds, Joanne; Berry, Karla; Arif, Abdi; Taylor, Polly; Routh, Andrew; Gasthuys, Frank

2017-09-01

General anesthesia poses risks for larger zoo species, like cardiorespiratory depression, myopathy, and hyperthermia. In ruminants, ruminal bloat and regurgitation of rumen contents with potential aspiration pneumonia are added risks. Thus, the use of sedation to perform minor procedures is justified in zoo animals. A combination of detomidine and butorphanol has been routinely used in domestic animals. This drug combination, administered by remote intramuscular injection, can also be applied for standing sedation in a range of zoo animals, allowing a number of minor procedures. The combination was successfully administered in five species of nondomesticated equids (Przewalski horse [ Equus ferus przewalskii; n = 1], onager [ Equus hemionus onager; n = 4], kiang [ Equus kiang ; n = 3], Grevy's zebra [ Equus grevyi ; n = 4], and Somali wild ass [ Equus africanus somaliensis; n = 7]), with a mean dose range of 0.10-0.17 mg/kg detomidine and 0.07-0.13 mg/kg butorphanol; the white ( Ceratotherium simum simum; n = 12) and greater one-horned rhinoceros ( Rhinoceros unicornis ; n = 4), with a mean dose of 0.015 mg/kg of both detomidine and butorphanol; and Asiatic elephant bulls ( Elephas maximus ; n = 2), with a mean dose of 0.018 mg/kg of both detomidine and butorphanol. In addition, the combination was successfully used for standing sedation in six species of artiodactylids: giraffe ( Giraffa camelopardalis reticulata; n = 3), western bongo ( Tragelaphus eurycerus eurycerus; n = 2), wisent ( Bison bonasus ; n = 5), yak ( Bos grunniens ; n = 1), water buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis ; n = 4) and Bactrian camel ( Camelus bactrianus ; n = 5). The mean dose range for artiodactylid species except bongo was 0.04-0.06 mg/kg detomidine and 0.03-0.06 mg/kg butorphanol. The dose in bongo, 0.15-0.20 mg/kg detomidine and 0.13-0.15 mg/kg butorphanol, was considerably higher. Times to first effect, approach, and recovery after antidote were short. The use of detomidine and butorphanol has

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

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Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic

Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Marske, Katharine Ann

2011-01-01

-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insights into biogeographic dynamics >400 million years ago). We discuss important assumptions and uncertainties that affect the SDM approach to paleobiology......Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i......) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview...

Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests

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Simberloff, D. [Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 37996 Knoxville, TN (United States)

2000-11-15

Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO{sub 2}, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.

New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily range points

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical...

Morphological variation and host range of two Ganoderma species from Papua New Guinea.

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Pilotti, Carmel A; Sanderson, Frank R; Aitken, Elizabeth A B; Armstrong, Wendy

2004-08-01

Two species of Ganoderma belonging to different subgenera which cause disease on oil palms in PNG are identified by basidiome morphology and the morphology of their basidiospores. The names G. boninense and G. tornatum have been applied. Significant pleiomorphy was observed in basidiome characters amongst the specimens examined. This variation in most instances did not correlate well with host or host status. Spore morphology appeared uniform within a species and spore indices varied only slightly. G. tornatum was found to have a broad host range whereas G. boninense appears to be restricted to palms in Papua New Guinea.

Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

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Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

2017-01-01

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have

What are the most crucial soil factors for predicting the distribution of alpine plant species?

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Buri, A.; Pinto-Figueroa, E.; Yashiro, E.; Guisan, A.

2017-12-01

Nowadays the use of species distribution models (SDM) is common to predict in space and time the distribution of organisms living in the critical zone. The realized environmental niche concept behind the development of SDM imply that many environmental factors must be accounted for simultaneously to predict species distributions. Climatic and topographic factors are often primary included, whereas soil factors are frequently neglected, mainly due to the paucity of soil information available spatially and temporally. Furthermore, among existing studies, most included soil pH only, or few other soil parameters. In this study we aimed at identifying what are the most crucial soil factors for explaining alpine plant distributions and, among those identified, which ones further improve the predictive power of plant SDMs. To test the relative importance of the soil factors, we performed plant SDMs using as predictors 52 measured soil properties of various types such as organic/inorganic compounds, chemical/physical properties, water related variables, mineral composition or grain size distribution. We added them separately to a standard set of topo-climatic predictors (temperature, slope, solar radiation and topographic position). We used ensemble forecasting techniques combining together several predictive algorithms to model the distribution of 116 plant species over 250 sites in the Swiss Alps. We recorded the variable importance for each model and compared the quality of the models including different soil proprieties (one at a time) as predictors to models having only topo-climatic variables as predictors. Results show that 46% of the soil proprieties tested become the second most important variable, after air temperature, to explain spatial distribution of alpine plants species. Moreover, we also assessed that addition of certain soil factors, such as bulk soil water density, could improve over 80% the quality of some plant species models. We confirm that soil p

New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily range points

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

2016-01-01

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...

Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Cunze

Full Text Available Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs. Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM. With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat - epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion - endozoochory considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.

Increased genetic divergence between two closely related fir species in areas of range overlap

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Wang, Jing; Abbott, Richard J; Ingvarsson, Pär K; Liu, Jianquan

2014-01-01

Because of introgressive hybridization, closely related species can be more similar to each other in areas of range overlap (parapatry or sympatry) than in areas where they are geographically isolated from each other (allopatry). Here, we report the reverse situation based on nuclear genetic divergence between two fir species, Abies chensiensis and Abies fargesii, in China, at sites where they are parapatric relative to where they are allopatric. We examined genetic divergence across 126 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers in a set of 172 individuals sampled from both allopatric and parapatric populations of the two species. Our analyses demonstrated that AFLP divergence was much greater between the species when comparisons were made between parapatric populations than between allopatric populations. We suggest that selection in parapatry may have largely contributed to this increased divergence. PMID:24772279

Integrating effects of species composition and soil properties to predict shifts in montane forest carbon-water relations.

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Maxwell, Toby M; Silva, Lucas C R; Horwath, William R

2018-05-01

This study was designed to address a major source of uncertainty pertaining to coupled carbon-water cycles in montane forest ecosystems. The Sierra Nevada of California was used as a model system to investigate connections between the physiological performance of trees and landscape patterns of forest carbon and water use. The intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE)-an index of CO 2 fixed per unit of potential water lost via transpiration-of nine dominant species was determined in replicated transects along an ∼1,500-m elevation gradient, spanning a broad range of climatic conditions and soils derived from three different parent materials. Stable isotope ratios of carbon and oxygen measured at the leaf level were combined with field-based and remotely sensed metrics of stand productivity, revealing that variation in iWUE depends primarily on leaf traits (∼24% of the variability), followed by stand productivity (∼16% of the variability), climatic regime (∼13% of the variability), and soil development (∼12% of the variability). Significant interactions between species composition and soil properties proved useful to predict changes in forest carbon-water relations. On the basis of observed shifts in tree species composition, ongoing since the 1950s and intensified in recent years, an increase in water loss through transpiration (ranging from 10 to 60% depending on parent material) is now expected in mixed conifer forests throughout the region. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sonne, Jesper; Martín González, Ana M.; Maruyama, Pietro K.

2016-01-01

Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographicall...

Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O

2018-04-24

As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.

Equations for predicting biomass of six introduced tree species, island of Hawaii

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Thomas H. Schukrt; Robert F. Strand; Thomas G. Cole; Katharine E. McDuffie

1988-01-01

Regression equations to predict total and stem-only above-ground dry biomass for six species (Acacia melanoxylon, Albizio falcataria, Eucalyptus globulus, E. grandis, E. robusta, and E. urophylla) were developed by felling and measuring 2- to 6-year-old...

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thibaud Rougier

Full Text Available Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa, an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Valladares, Fernando; Matesanz, Silvia; Guilhaumon, François; Araújo, Miguel B; Balaguer, Luis; Benito-Garzón, Marta; Cornwell, Will; Gianoli, Ernesto; van Kleunen, Mark; Naya, Daniel E; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Poorter, Hendrik; Zavala, Miguel A

2014-11-01

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Maxent modelling for predicting the potential distribution of Thai Palms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Overgaard, Anne Blach

2011-01-01

on presence data. The aim was to identify potential hot spot areas, assess the determinants of palm distribution ranges, and provide a firmer knowledge base for future conservation actions. We focused on a relatively small number of climatic, environmental and spatial variables in order to avoid...... overprediction of species distribution ranges. The models with the best predictive power were found by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Here, we provide examples of contrasting predicted species distribution ranges as well as a map of modeled palm diversity...

Pipeline defect prediction using long range ultrasonic testing and intelligent processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dino Isa; Rajprasad Rajkumar

2009-01-01

This paper deals with efforts to improve nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques by using artificial intelligence in detecting and predicting pipeline defects such as cracks and wall thinning. The main emphasis here will be on the prediction of corrosion type defects rather than just detection after the fact. Long range ultrasonic testing will be employed, where a ring of piezoelectric transducers are used to generate torsional guided waves. Various defects such as cracks as well as corrosion under insulation (CUI) will be simulated on a test pipe. The machine learning algorithm known as the Support Vector Machine (SVM) will be used to predict and classify transducer signals using regression and large margin classification. Regression results show that the SVM is able to accurately predict future defects based on trends of previous defect. The classification performance was also exceptional showing a facility to detect defects at different depths as well as for distinguishing closely spaced defects. (author)

Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

1981-08-01

A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking

Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

1981-08-01

A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

2015-12-01

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling.

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Trainor, Anne M; Schmitz, Oswald J

2014-12-01

Community ecology involves studying the interdependence of species with each other and their environment to predict their geographical distribution and abundance. Modern species distribution analyses characterise species-environment dependency well, but offer only crude approximations of species interdependency. Typically, the dependency between focal species and other species is characterised using other species' point occurrences as spatial covariates to constrain the focal species' predicted range. This implicitly assumes that the strength of interdependency is homogeneous across space, which is not generally supported by analyses of species interactions. This discrepancy has an important bearing on the accuracy of inferences about habitat suitability for species. We introduce a framework that integrates principles from consumer-resource analyses, resource selection theory and species distribution modelling to enhance quantitative prediction of species geographical distributions. We show how to apply the framework using a case study of lynx and snowshoe hare interactions with each other and their environment. The analysis shows how the framework offers a spatially refined understanding of species distribution that is sensitive to nuances in biophysical attributes of the environment that determine the location and strength of species interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species.

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Bach, Dominik R

2015-04-07

In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and instructed attention, and do not explain why startle reflex modulation evolved. Here, we fill this lacuna by developing a normative cost minimisation model based on Bayesian optimality principles. This model predicts the observed pattern of startle modification by rewards, punishments, instructed attention, and several other states. Moreover, the mathematical formalism furnishes predictions that can be tested experimentally. Comparing the model with existing data suggests a specific neural implementation of the underlying computations which yields close approximations to the optimal solution under most circumstances. This analysis puts startle modification into the framework of Bayesian decision theory and predictive coding, and illustrates the importance of an adaptive perspective to interpret defensive behaviour across species. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Novel view on predicting acute toxicity: Decomposing toxicity data in species vulnerability and chemical potency.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jager, D.T.; Posthuma, L.; Zwart, D.D.; van de Meent, D.

2007-01-01

Chemical risk assessment usually applies empirical methods to predict toxicant effects on different species. We propose a more mechanism-oriented approach, and introduce a method to decompose toxicity data in a contribution from the chemical (potency) and from the exposed species (vulnerability). We

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

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Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

2018-02-01

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Reduced mandibular range of motion in Duchenne muscular dystrophy : Predictive factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Bruggen, H. W.; Van Den Engel-Hoek, L.; Steenks, M. H.; Bronkhorst, E. M.; Creugers, N. H J; de Groot, I. J M; Kalaykova, S. I.

2015-01-01

Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) experience negative effects upon feeding and oral health. We aimed to determine whether the mandibular range of motion in DMD is impaired and to explore predictive factors for the active maximum mouth opening (aMMO). 23 patients with DMD (mean age 16·7

Prediction of Dominant Forest Tree Species Using QuickBird and Environmental Data

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Azadeh Abdollahnejad

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distribution of plants is one of the indirect methods for predicting the properties of plants and can be defined based on the relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables. In this article, we introduce a new method for the spatial prediction of the dominant trees and species, through a combination of environmental and satellite data. Based on the basal area factor (BAF frequency for each tree species in a total of 518 sample plots, the dominant tree species were determined for each plot. Also, topographical maps of primary and secondary properties were prepared using the digital elevation model (DEM. Categories of soil and the climate maps database of the Doctor Bahramnia Forestry Plan were extracted as well. After pre-processing and processing of spectral data, the pixel values at the sample locations in all the independent factors such as spectral and non-spectral data, were extracted. The modelling rates of tree and shrub species diversity using data mining algorithms of 80% of the sampling plots were taken. Assessment of model accuracy was conducted using 20% of samples and evaluation criteria. Random forest (RF, support vector machine (SVM and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN algorithms were used for spatial distribution modelling of dominant species groups using environmental and spectral variables from 80% of the sample plots. Results showed physiographic factors, especially altitude in combination with soil and climate factors as the most important variables in the distribution of species, while the best model was created by the integration of physiographic factors (in combination with soil and climate with an overall accuracy of 63.85%. In addition, the results of the comparison between the algorithms, showed that the RF algorithm was the most accurate in modelling the diversity.

Incorporating latitudinal and central–marginal trends in assessing genetic variation across species ranges

Science.gov (United States)

Qinfeng Guo

2012-01-01

The genetic variation across a species’ range is an important factor in speciation and conservation, yet searching for general patterns and underlying causes remains challenging. While the majority of comparisons between central and marginal populations have revealed a general central–marginal (C-M) decline in genetic diversity, others show no clear pattern. Similarly...

Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

2011-12-20

The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-02-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally

Species richness of vascular plants along the climatic range of the Spanish dehesas at two spatial scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose M. Garcia del Barrio

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Aims of study: The goals of this paper are to summarize and to compare plant species richness and floristic similarity at two spatial scales; mesohabitat (normal, eutrophic, and oligotrophic dehesas and dehesa habitat; and to establish guidelines for conserving species diversity in dehesas.Area of study: We considered four dehesa sites in the western Peninsular Spain, located along a climatic and biogeographic gradient from north to south. Main results: Average alpha richness for mesohabitats was 75.6 species, and average alpha richness for dehesa sites was 146.3. Gamma richness assessed for the overall dehesa habitat was 340.0 species. The species richness figures of normal dehesa mesohabitat were significantly lesser than of the eutrophic mesohabitat and lesser than the oligotrophic mesohabitat too. No significant differences were found for species richness among dehesa sites. We have found more dissimilarity at local scale (mesohabitat than at regional scale (habitat. Finally, the results of the similarity assessment between dehesa sites reflected both climatic and biogeographic gradients.Research highlights: An effective conservation of dehesas must take into account local and regional conditions all along their distribution range for ensuring the conservation of the main vascular plant species assemblages as well as the associated fauna.Keywords: Agroforestry systems; mesohabitat; non-parametric estimators; alpha richness; gamma richness; floristic similarity; climatic and biogeographic range.

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2014-12-01

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

1998-01-01

Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth?s biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information...

Using Google Earth Surface Metrics to Predict Plant Species Richness in a Complex Landscape

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Sebastián Block

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Google Earth provides a freely available, global mosaic of high-resolution imagery from different sensors that has become popular in environmental and ecological studies. However, such imagery lacks the near-infrared band often used in studying vegetation, thus its potential for estimating vegetation properties remains unclear. In this study, we assess the potential of Google Earth imagery to describe and predict vegetation attributes. Further, we compare it to the potential of SPOT imagery, which has additional spectral information. We measured basal area, vegetation height, crown cover, density of individuals, and species richness in 60 plots in the oak forests of a complex volcanic landscape in central Mexico. We modelled each vegetation attribute as a function of surface metrics derived from Google Earth and SPOT images, and selected the best-supported linear models from each source. Total species richness was the best-described and predicted variable: the best Google Earth-based model explained nearly as much variation in species richness as its SPOT counterpart (R2 = 0.44 and 0.51, respectively. However, Google Earth metrics emerged as poor predictors of all remaining vegetation attributes, whilst SPOT metrics showed potential for predicting vegetation height. We conclude that Google Earth imagery can be used to estimate species richness in complex landscapes. As it is freely available, Google Earth can broaden the use of remote sensing by researchers and managers in low-income tropical countries where most biodiversity hotspots are found.

Weights, hematology and serum chemistry of seven species of free-ranging tropical pelagic seabirds

Science.gov (United States)

Work, Thierry M.

1996-01-01

I established reference values for weight, hematology, and serum chemistry for seven species of free-ranging Hawaiian tropical pelagic seabirds comprising three orders (Procellariiformes, Pelecaniformes, Charadriiformes) and six families (Procellariidae, Phaethontidae, Diomedeidae, Sulidae, Fregatidae, and Laridae). Species examined included 84 Hawaiian dark-rumped petrels (Pterodoma phaeopygia), 90 wedge-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus pacificus), 151 Laysan albatrosses (Diomedea immutabilis), 69 red-footed boobies (Sula sula), 154 red-tailed tropicbirds (Phaeton rubricauda), 90 great frigatebirds (Fregata minor), and 72 sooty terns (Sterna fuscata). Hematocrit, total plasma solids, total and differential white cell counts, serum glucose, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, total protein, albumin, globulin, aspartate aminotransferase and creatinine phosphokinase were analyzed. Among and within species, hematology and chemistry values varied with age, sex, season, and island of collection. Despite this variation, order-wide trends were observed.

PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

2009-10-01

Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

April E Reside

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

Miedema model based methodology to predict amorphous-forming-composition range in binary and ternary systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Das, N., E-mail: nirupamd@barc.gov.in [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Mittra, J. [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Murty, B.S. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, IIT Madras, Chennai 600 036 (India); Pabi, S.K. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721 302 (India); Kulkarni, U.D.; Dey, G.K. [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India)

2013-02-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A methodology was proposed to predict amorphous forming compositions (AFCs). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Chemical contribution to enthalpy of mixing {proportional_to} enthalpy of amorphous for AFCs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Accuracy in the prediction of AFC-range was noticed in Al-Ni-Ti system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mechanical alloying (MA) results of Al-Ni-Ti followed the predicted AFC-range. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Earlier MA results of Al-Ni-Ti also conformed to the predicted AFC-range. - Abstract: From the earlier works on the prediction of amorphous forming composition range (AFCR) using Miedema based model and also, on mechanical alloying experiments it has been observed that all amorphous forming compositions of a given alloy system falls within a linear band when the chemical contribution to enthalpy of the solid solution ({Delta}H{sup ss}) is plotted against the enthalpy of mixing in the amorphous phase ({Delta}H{sup amor}). On the basis of this observation, a methodology has been proposed in this article to identify the AFCR of a ternary system that is likely to be more precise than what can be obtained using {Delta}H{sup amor} - {Delta}H{sup ss} < 0 criterion. MA experiments on various compositions of Al-Ni-Ti system, producing amorphous, crystalline, and mixture of amorphous plus crystalline phases have been carried out and the phases have been characterized using X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy techniques. Data from the present MA experiments and, also, from the literature have been used to validate the proposed approach. Also, the proximity of compositions, producing a mixture of amorphous and crystalline phases to the boundary of AFCR in the Al-Ni-Ti ternary has been found useful to validate the effectiveness of the prediction.

Effects of plant sex on range distributions and allocation to reproduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Marc T J; Smith, Stacey D; Rausher, Mark D

2010-05-01

Despite an abundance of theory, few empirical studies have explored the ecological and evolutionary consequences of sex. We used a comparative phylogenetic approach to examine whether transitions between sexual and asexual reproduction are associated with changes in the size and distribution of species' geographical ranges, and their investment in reproduction. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeny of the genus Oenothera sections Oenothera and Calylophus (Onagraceae), which contain 35 sexual and 30 functionally asexual species. From each species, we collected data on the geographical distribution and variation in plant traits related to reproduction. Functionally asexual species occurred at higher latitudes, but did not differ in range size, compared with sexual species. Transitions to asexuality were associated with decreased investment in floral structures, including the length of petals, floral tubes and styles. Decreased anther size and increased seed size within asexual species also suggest altered allocation to male and female fitness. The observed range shifts are consistent with superior colonization of environments by asexual species following glaciation, and the observed changes in reproductive allocation support predictions made by models relating to the evolution of selfing. Our results suggest that the evolutionary consequences of asexual reproduction might be less restrictive than previously thought.

Cross-Species Extrapolation of Models for Predicting Lead Transfer from Soil to Wheat Grain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ke Liu

Full Text Available The transfer of Pb from the soil to crops is a serious food hygiene security problem in China because of industrial, agricultural, and historical contamination. In this study, the characteristics of exogenous Pb transfer from 17 Chinese soils to a popular wheat variety (Xiaoyan 22 were investigated. In addition, bioaccumulation prediction models of Pb in grain were obtained based on soil properties. The results of the analysis showed that pH and OC were the most important factors contributing to Pb uptake by wheat grain. Using a cross-species extrapolation approach, the Pb uptake prediction models for cultivar Xiaoyan 22 in different soil Pb levels were satisfactorily applied to six additional non-modeled wheat varieties to develop a prediction model for each variety. Normalization of the bioaccumulation factor (BAF to specific soil physico-chemistry is essential, because doing so could significantly reduce the intra-species variation of different wheat cultivars in predicted Pb transfer and eliminate the influence of soil properties on ecotoxicity parameters for organisms of interest. Finally, the prediction models were successfully verified against published data (including other wheat varieties and crops and used to evaluate the ecological risk of Pb for wheat in contaminated agricultural soils.

Spatial Complementarity and the Coexistence of Species

Science.gov (United States)

Velázquez, Jorge; Garrahan, Juan P.; Eichhorn, Markus P.

2014-01-01

Coexistence of apparently similar species remains an enduring paradox in ecology. Spatial structure has been predicted to enable coexistence even when population-level models predict competitive exclusion if it causes each species to limit its own population more than that of its competitor. Nevertheless, existing hypotheses conflict with regard to whether clustering favours or precludes coexistence. The spatial segregation hypothesis predicts that in clustered populations the frequency of intra-specific interactions will be increased, causing each species to be self-limiting. Alternatively, individuals of the same species might compete over greater distances, known as heteromyopia, breaking down clusters and opening space for a second species to invade. In this study we create an individual-based model in homogeneous two-dimensional space for two putative sessile species differing only in their demographic rates and the range and strength of their competitive interactions. We fully characterise the parameter space within which coexistence occurs beyond population-level predictions, thereby revealing a region of coexistence generated by a previously-unrecognised process which we term the triadic mechanism. Here coexistence occurs due to the ability of a second generation of offspring of the rarer species to escape competition from their ancestors. We diagnose the conditions under which each of three spatial coexistence mechanisms operates and their characteristic spatial signatures. Deriving insights from a novel metric — ecological pressure — we demonstrate that coexistence is not solely determined by features of the numerically-dominant species. This results in a common framework for predicting, given any pair of species and knowledge of the relevant parameters, whether they will coexist, the mechanism by which they will do so, and the resultant spatial pattern of the community. Spatial coexistence arises from complementary combinations of traits in each

Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models.

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Bennett, D H; Scheringer, M; McKone, T E; Hungerbühler, K

2001-03-15

The United Nations Environment Program has recently developed criteria to identify and restrict chemicals with a potential for persistence and long-range transport (persistent organic pollutants or POPs). There are many stakeholders involved, and the issues are not only scientific but also include social, economic, and political factors. This work focuses on one aspect of the POPs debate, the criteria for determining the potential for long-range transport (LRT). Our goal is to determine if current models are reliable enough to support decisions that classify a chemical based on the LRT potential. We examine the robustness of two multimedia fate models for determining the relative ranking and absolute spatial range of various chemicals in the environment. We also consider the effect of parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainty associated with the selection of an algorithm for gas-particle partitioning on the model results. Given the same chemical properties, both models give virtually the same ranking. However, when chemical parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties such as particle partitioning are considered, the spatial range distributions obtained for the individual chemicals overlap, preventing a distinct rank order. The absolute values obtained for the predicted spatial range or travel distance differ significantly between the two models for the uncertainties evaluated. We find that to evaluate a chemical when large and unresolved uncertainties exist, it is more informative to use two or more models and include multiple types of uncertainty. Model differences and uncertainties must be explicitly confronted to determine how the limitations of scientific knowledge impact predictions in the decision-making process.

A range-based predictive localization algorithm for WSID networks

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Liu, Yuan; Chen, Junjie; Li, Gang

2017-11-01

Most studies on localization algorithms are conducted on the sensor networks with densely distributed nodes. However, the non-localizable problems are prone to occur in the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. To solve this problem, a range-based predictive localization algorithm (RPLA) is proposed in this paper for the wireless sensor networks syncretizing the RFID (WSID) networks. The Gaussian mixture model is established to predict the trajectory of a mobile target. Then, the received signal strength indication is used to reduce the residence area of the target location based on the approximate point-in-triangulation test algorithm. In addition, collaborative localization schemes are introduced to locate the target in the non-localizable situations. Simulation results verify that the RPLA achieves accurate localization for the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. The localization accuracy of the RPLA is 48.7% higher than that of the APIT algorithm, 16.8% higher than that of the single Gaussian model-based algorithm and 10.5% higher than that of the Kalman filtering-based algorithm.

Widespread range expansions shape latitudinal variation in insect thermal limits

Science.gov (United States)

Lancaster, Lesley T.

2016-06-01

Current anthropogenic impacts, including habitat modification and climate change, may contribute to a sixth mass extinction. To mitigate these impacts and slow further losses of biodiversity, we need to understand which species are most at risk and identify the factors contributing to current and future declines. Such information is often obtained through large-scale, comparative and biogeographic analysis of lineages or traits that are potentially sensitive to ongoing anthropogenic change--for instance to predict which regions are most susceptible to climate change-induced biodiversity loss. However, for this approach to be generally successful, the underlying causes of identified geographical trends need to be carefully considered. Here, I augment and reanalyse a global data set of insect thermal tolerances, evaluating the contribution of recent and contemporary range expansions to latitudinal variation in thermal niche breadth. Previous indications that high-latitude ectotherms exhibit broad thermal niches and high warming tolerances held only for species undergoing range expansions or invasions. In contrast, species with stable or declining geographic ranges exhibit latitudinally decreasing absolute thermal tolerances and no latitudinal variation in tolerance breadths. Thus, non-range-expanding species, particularly insular or endemic species, which are often of highest conservation priority, are unlikely to tolerate future climatic warming at high latitudes.

Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

2009-01-01

Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

Height-Diameter Equations for 12 Upland Species in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

J.R. Lootens; David R. Larsen; Stephen R. Shifley

2007-01-01

We calibrated a model predicting total tree height as a function of tree diameter for nine tree species common to the Missouri Ozarks. Model coefficients were derived from nearly 10,000 observed trees. The calibrated model did a good job predicting the mean height-diameter trend for each species (pseudo-R2 values ranged from 0.56 to 0.88), but...

Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

Science.gov (United States)

Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

2011-01-01

If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables

Predictive models of threatened plant species distribution in the Iberian arid south-east

OpenAIRE

Benito, Blas M.

2013-01-01

Poster on the distribution of three rare, endemic and endangered annual plants of arid zones in the south-eastern Iberian peninsula. Presented in the workshop "Predictive Modelling of Species Distribution: New Tools for the XXI Century (Baeza, Spain, november 2005).

The interplay of various sources of noise on reliability of species distribution models hinges on ecological specialisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Soultan, Alaaeldin; Safi, Kamran

2017-01-01

Digitized species occurrence data provide an unprecedented source of information for ecologists and conservationists. Species distribution model (SDM) has become a popular method to utilise these data for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of species, and for modelling biodiversity patterns. Our objective is to study the impact of noise in species occurrence data (namely sample size and positional accuracy) on the performance and reliability of SDM, considering the multiplicative impact of SDM algorithms, species specialisation, and grid resolution. We created a set of four 'virtual' species characterized by different specialisation levels. For each of these species, we built the suitable habitat models using five algorithms at two grid resolutions, with varying sample sizes and different levels of positional accuracy. We assessed the performance and reliability of the SDM according to classic model evaluation metrics (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic) and model agreement metrics (Overall Concordance Correlation Coefficient and geographic niche overlap) respectively. Our study revealed that species specialisation had by far the most dominant impact on the SDM. In contrast to previous studies, we found that for widespread species, low sample size and low positional accuracy were acceptable, and useful distribution ranges could be predicted with as few as 10 species occurrences. Range predictions for narrow-ranged species, however, were sensitive to sample size and positional accuracy, such that useful distribution ranges required at least 20 species occurrences. Against expectations, the MAXENT algorithm poorly predicted the distribution of specialist species at low sample size.

Non-indigenous plant species and their ecological range in Central European pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests

OpenAIRE

Zerbe , Stefan; Wirth , Petra

2006-01-01

International audience; In this study, forest ecosystems were analysed with regard to the occurrence and ecological range of non-indigenous plant species. Pine forests in the NE German lowland, which naturally and anthropogenically occur on a broad range of different sites, were taken as an example. The analysis is based on a data set of about 2 300 vegetation plots. The ecological range was assessed applying Ellenberg's ecological indicator values. Out of a total of 362 taxa recorded in the ...

Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

Science.gov (United States)

Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

2014-12-01

The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

2018-03-01

Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

The nuclear question: rethinking species importance in multi-species animal groups.

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Srinivasan, Umesh; Raza, Rashid Hasnain; Quader, Suhel

2010-09-01

shaping species importance. 5. Our view of nuclearity provides predictive power in examining species roles in a variety of situations (e.g. predicting leadership in differently composed communities), and can be applied to examine a broad range of ecological and evolutionary questions pertinent to multi-species groups in general.

Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 organism species. - Gclust Server | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available List Contact us Gclust Server Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 organis...m species. Data detail Data name Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 orga...nism species. DOI 10.18908/lsdba.nbdc00464-001 Description of data contents Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins...Database Description Download License Update History of This Database Site Policy | Contact Us Amino acid sequences of predicted prot...eins and their annotation for 95 organism species. - Gclust Server | LSDB Archive ...

Relative tolerance of a range of Australian native plant species and lettuce to copper, zinc, cadmium, and lead.

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Lamb, Dane T; Ming, Hui; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

2010-10-01

The tolerance of wild flora to heavy-metal exposure has received very little research. In this study, the tolerance of four native tree species, four native grass species, and lettuce to copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) was investigated in a root-elongation study using Petri dishes. The results of these studies show a diverse range of responses to Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb amongst the tested plant species. Toxicity among metals decreased in the following order: Cd ~ Cu > Pb > Zn. Metal concentrations resulting in a 50% reduction in growth (EC(50)) varied considerably, ranging from (microM) 30 (Dichanthium sericeum) to >2000 (Acacia spp.) for Cu; from 260 (Lactuca sativa) to 2000 (Acacia spp.) for Zn; from 27 (L. sativa) to 940 (Acacia holosericea) for Cd; and from 180 (L. sativa) to >1000 (Acacia spp.) for Pb. Sensitive native plant species identified included D. sericeum, Casuarina cunninghamiana, and Austrodanthonia caespitosa. However, L. sativa (lettuce) was also among the most sensitive to all four metals. Acacia species showed a high tolerance to metal exposure, suggesting that the Acacia genus shows potential for use in contaminated-site revegetation.

Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

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Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

Examining fluvial fish range loss with SDMs

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Taylor, Andrew T.; Papeş, Monica; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial‐specialist shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non‐native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non‐native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non‐native congeners, wherein non‐natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free‐flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats.

Impacts of biogeographic history and marginal population genetics on species range limits: a case study of Liriodendron chinense.

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Yang, Aihong; Dick, Christopher W; Yao, Xiaohong; Huang, Hongwen

2016-05-10

Species ranges are influenced by past climate oscillations, geographical constraints, and adaptive potential to colonize novel habitats at range limits. This study used Liriodendron chinense, an important temperate Asian tree species, as a model system to evaluate the roles of biogeographic history and marginal population genetics in determining range limits. We examined the demographic history and genetic diversity of 29 L. chinense populations using both chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite loci. Significant phylogeographic structure was recovered with haplotype clusters coinciding with major mountain regions. Long-term demographical stability was suggested by mismatch distribution analyses, neutrality tests, and ecological niche models (ENM) and suggested the existence of LGM refuges within mountain regions. Differences in genetic diversity between central and marginal populations were not significant for either genomic region. However, asymmetrical gene flow was inferred from central populations to marginal populations, which could potentially limit range adaptation and expansion of L. chinense.

Compensation for the distortion in satellite laser range predictions due to varying pulse travel times

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Paunonen, Matti

1993-01-01

A method for compensating for the effect of the varying travel time of a transmitted laser pulse to a satellite is described. The 'observed minus predicted' range differences then appear to be linear, which makes data screening or use in range gating more effective.

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Science.gov (United States)

Earl, Julia E.; Nicol, Samuel; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Mattsson, Brady; McCracken, Gary; Norris, D. Ryan; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2018-01-01

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

2018-01-01

To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute

Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

Science.gov (United States)

Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

2018-05-01

The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

An equation for the prediction of human skin permeability of neutral molecules, ions and ionic species.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Keda; Abraham, Michael H; Liu, Xiangli

2017-04-15

Experimental values of permeability coefficients, as log K p , of chemical compounds across human skin were collected by carefully screening the literature, and adjusted to 37°C for the effect of temperature. The values of log K p for partially ionized acids and bases were separated into those for their neutral and ionic species, forming a total data set of 247 compounds and species (including 35 ionic species). The obtained log K p values have been regressed against Abraham solute descriptors to yield a correlation equation with R 2 =0.866 and SD=0.432 log units. The equation can provide valid predictions for log K p of neutral molecules, ions and ionic species, with predictive R 2 =0.858 and predictive SD=0.445 log units calculated by the leave-one-out statistics. The predicted log K p values for Na + and Et 4 N + are in good agreement with the observed values. We calculated the values of log K p of ketoprofen as a function of the pH of the donor solution, and found that log K p markedly varies only when ketoprofen is largely ionized. This explains why models that neglect ionization of permeants still yield reasonable statistical results. The effect of skin thickness on log K p was investigated by inclusion of two indicator variables, one for intermediate thickness skin and one for full thickness skin, into the above equation. The newly obtained equations were found to be statistically very close to the above equation. Therefore, the thickness of human skin used makes little difference to the experimental values of log K p . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Science.gov (United States)

Earl, Julia E; Nicol, Sam; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Semmens, Darius; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Mattsson, Brady J; McCracken, Gary; Norris, D Ryan; Thogmartin, Wayne E; López-Hoffman, Laura

2018-02-01

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals' "removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened." We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species' range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria-redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)-that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research. © 2017

The multidimensional behavioural hypervolumes of two interacting species predict their space use and survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichtenstein, James L L; Wright, Colin M; McEwen, Brendan; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Pruitt, Jonathan N

2017-10-01

Individual animals differ consistently in their behaviour, thus impacting a wide variety of ecological outcomes. Recent advances in animal personality research have established the ecological importance of the multidimensional behavioural volume occupied by individuals and by multispecies communities. Here, we examine the degree to which the multidimensional behavioural volume of a group predicts the outcome of both intra- and interspecific interactions. In particular, we test the hypothesis that a population of conspecifics will experience low intraspecific competition when the population occupies a large volume in behavioural space. We further hypothesize that populations of interacting species will exhibit greater interspecific competition when one or both species occupy large volumes in behavioural space. We evaluate these hypotheses by studying groups of katydids ( Scudderia nymphs) and froghoppers ( Philaenus spumarius ), which compete for food and space on their shared host plant, Solidago canadensis . We found that individuals in single-species groups of katydids positioned themselves closer to one another, suggesting reduced competition, when groups occupied a large behavioural volume. When both species were placed together, we found that the survival of froghoppers was greatest when both froghoppers and katydids occupied a small volume in behavioural space, particularly at high froghopper densities. These results suggest that groups that occupy large behavioural volumes can have low intraspecific competition but high interspecific competition. Thus, behavioural hypervolumes appear to have ecological consequences at both the level of the population and the community and may help to predict the intensity of competition both within and across species.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Périé

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range in Quebec (Canada rather than opportunities (increase in suitability. Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Three explanations for biodiversity hotspots: small range size, geographical overlap and time for species accumulation. An Australian case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Lyn G; Hardy, Nate B; Crisp, Michael D

2015-07-01

To understand the generation and maintenance of biodiversity hotspots, we tested three major hypotheses: rates of diversification, ecological limits to diversity, and time for species accumulation. Using dated molecular phylogenies, measures of species' range size and geographical clade overlap, niche modelling, and lineages-through-time plots of Australian Fabaceae, we compared the southwest Australia Floristic Region (SWAFR; a global biodiversity hotspot) with a latitudinally equivalent non-hotspot, southeast Australia (SEA). Ranges of species (real and simulated) were smaller in the SWAFR than in SEA. Geographical overlap of clades was significantly greater for Daviesia in the SWAFR than in SEA, but the inverse for Bossiaea. Lineage diversification rates over the past 10 Myr did not differ between the SWAFR and SEA in either genus. Interaction of multiple factors probably explains the differences in measured diversity between the two regions. Steeper climatic gradients in the SWAFR probably explain the smaller geographical ranges of both genera there. Greater geographical overlap of clades in the SWAFR, combined with a longer time in the region, can explain why Daviesia is far more species-rich there than in SEA. Our results indicate that the time for speciation and ecological limits hypotheses, in concert, can explain the differences in biodiversity. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Do species differ in their ability to coexist with the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus? A comparison between two distinct invaded ranges and a native range

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hejda, Martin

2013-01-01

Roč. 17, jun 2013 (2013), s. 39-55 ISSN 1619-0033 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP505/11/1112; GA ČR GA206/07/0668 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : lupinus polyphyllus * invasive alien species * native range Subject RIV: EF - Botanics

Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Anderson, Marti J; Arita, Hector T

2009-01-01

to a mechanistic understanding of the patterns. During the past two decades, macroecologists have successfully addressed technical problems posed by spatial autocorrelation, intercorrelation of predictor variables and non-linearity. However, curve-fitting approaches are problematic because most theoretical models...... in macroecology do not make quantitative predictions, and they do not incorporate interactions among multiple forces. As an alternative, we propose a mechanistic modelling approach. We describe computer simulation models of the stochastic origin, spread, and extinction of species' geographical ranges...... in an environmentally heterogeneous, gridded domain and describe progress to date regarding their implementation. The output from such a general simulation model (GSM) would, at a minimum, consist of the simulated distribution of species ranges on a map, yielding the predicted number of species in each grid cell...

Citizen Science and Open Data: a Model for Invasive Alien Plant Species in Kenya's Northern Rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Ouko, E.; Omondi, S.; Mugo, R. M.; Farah, H.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Adams, E. C.

2017-12-01

Invasive species in African savannas pose great threat to the native biodiversity and changes ecosystem functioning. In the forest sector, for instance Acacia species are important sources of fuel-wood, yet at the same time they have increased strain on water resources and shrunken forage spaces for both livestock and wildlife. In recently infested regions, invasive species can progress through the stages of introduction, establishment and dispersal to a full range. Currently there is much worldwide interest in predicting distributions of invasive species, and several organizations are faced with questions of whether and how to tackle such environmental challenges, or how to interpret predictions from the science community. Conservation practioners require mapped estimates of where species could persist in a given region, and this is associated to information about the biotope - i.e. the geographic location of the species' niche. The process of collecting species distribution data for identifying the potential distribution of the invasive species in the invaded ranges has become a challenge both in terms of resource and time allocation. This study highlights innovative approaches in crowdsourcing validation data in mapping and modelling invasive species (Acacia reficiens and Cactus) through involvement of the local communities. The general approach was to model the distribution of A. reficiens and Cactus (Opuntia Spp) using occurrence records from native range, then project the model into new regions to assess susceptibility to invasion using climatic and topographic environmental variables. The models performed better than random prediction (P 0.75.

Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olalla-Tárraga1, Miguel Á.; McInnes, Linsey; Bini, Luis M.

2011-01-01

Aim Comparative evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism – the tendency for lineages to retain their ancestral niches over long time scales – has so far been mixed, depending on spatial and taxonomic scale. We quantify and compare conservatism in the climatic factors defining range boundaries...... conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals...... and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution...

Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

2017-12-01

Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

Living on the edge: regional distribution and retracting range of the jaguar (Panthera onca

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.

2017-02-01

Full Text Available To preserve biodiversity we need to understand how species are distributed and which aspects of the environment determine these distributions. Human–induced changes in land–cover and loss of habitat threaten many species, particularly large carnivores, in many parts of the world. Differentiating the influence of climate and human land use on the distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca is important for the species’ conservation. Historically distributed from the United States to southern Argentina, the jaguar has seen its distribution range decreased at regional and local scales. Here we predict the species’ distribution range using historical records of its presence, climate variables, and MaxEnt predictive algorithms. We focus especially on its southernmost limit in Argentina to indicate the historical limits of this species, and describe its present niche in these edge populations. To estimate the effect of human activity we used a raster of land cover to restrict the jaguar’s distribution. We collected a large amount of presence records through the species’ historical range, and estimated a historical regional distribution ranging from Patagonia up to latitude –50°S. Our findings show the range of the jaguar is decreasing severely in its southern limit and also in its northern limit, and that changes in land cover/use are threats to the species. After subtracting non–suitable land–cover from the studied niche, we found the environmentally suitable area for the jaguar in the study area has decreased to 5.2% of its original size. We thus warn of the high extinction risk of the jaguar in Argentina.

Comparative analysis of the predicted secretomes of Rosaceae scab pathogens Venturia inaequalis and V. pirina reveals expanded effector families and putative determinants of host range.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Cecilia H; Plummer, Kim M; Jones, Darcy A B; Mesarich, Carl H; Shiller, Jason; Taranto, Adam P; Robinson, Andrew J; Kastner, Patrick; Hall, Nathan E; Templeton, Matthew D; Bowen, Joanna K

2017-05-02

Fungal plant pathogens belonging to the genus Venturia cause damaging scab diseases of members of the Rosaceae. In terms of economic impact, the most important of these are V. inaequalis, which infects apple, and V. pirina, which is a pathogen of European pear. Given that Venturia fungi colonise the sub-cuticular space without penetrating plant cells, it is assumed that effectors that contribute to virulence and determination of host range will be secreted into this plant-pathogen interface. Thus the predicted secretomes of a range of isolates of Venturia with distinct host-ranges were interrogated to reveal putative proteins involved in virulence and pathogenicity. Genomes of Venturia pirina (one European pear scab isolate) and Venturia inaequalis (three apple scab, and one loquat scab, isolates) were sequenced and the predicted secretomes of each isolate identified. RNA-Seq was conducted on the apple-specific V. inaequalis isolate Vi1 (in vitro and infected apple leaves) to highlight virulence and pathogenicity components of the secretome. Genes encoding over 600 small secreted proteins (candidate effectors) were identified, most of which are novel to Venturia, with expansion of putative effector families a feature of the genus. Numerous genes with similarity to Leptosphaeria maculans AvrLm6 and the Verticillium spp. Ave1 were identified. Candidates for avirulence effectors with cognate resistance genes involved in race-cultivar specificity were identified, as were putative proteins involved in host-species determination. Candidate effectors were found, on average, to be in regions of relatively low gene-density and in closer proximity to repeats (e.g. transposable elements), compared with core eukaryotic genes. Comparative secretomics has revealed candidate effectors from Venturia fungal plant pathogens that attack pome fruit. Effectors that are putative determinants of host range were identified; both those that may be involved in race-cultivar and host-species

Structural prediction and analysis of VIH-related peptides from selected crustacean species.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagaraju, Ganji Purna Chandra; Kumari, Nunna Siva; Prasad, Ganji Lakshmi Vara; Rajitha, Balney; Meenu, Madan; Rao, Manam Sreenivasa; Naik, Bannoth Reddya

2009-08-17

The tentative elucidation of the 3D-structure of vitellogenesis inhibiting hormone (VIH) peptides is conversely underprivileged by difficulties in gaining enough peptide or protein, diffracting crystals, and numerous extra technical aspects. As a result, no structural information is available for VIH peptide sequences registered in the Genbank. In this situation, it is not surprising that predictive methods have achieved great interest. Here, in this study the molt-inhibiting hormone (MIH) of the kuruma prawn (Marsupenaeus japonicus) is used, to predict the structure of four VIHrelated peptides in the crustacean species. The high similarity of the 3D-structures and the calculated physiochemical characteristics of these peptides suggest a common fold for the entire family.

Reranking candidate gene models with cross-species comparison for improved gene prediction

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Pereira Fernando CN

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most gene finders score candidate gene models with state-based methods, typically HMMs, by combining local properties (coding potential, splice donor and acceptor patterns, etc. Competing models with similar state-based scores may be distinguishable with additional information. In particular, functional and comparative genomics datasets may help to select among competing models of comparable probability by exploiting features likely to be associated with the correct gene models, such as conserved exon/intron structure or protein sequence features. Results We have investigated the utility of a simple post-processing step for selecting among a set of alternative gene models, using global scoring rules to rerank competing models for more accurate prediction. For each gene locus, we first generate the K best candidate gene models using the gene finder Evigan, and then rerank these models using comparisons with putative orthologous genes from closely-related species. Candidate gene models with lower scores in the original gene finder may be selected if they exhibit strong similarity to probable orthologs in coding sequence, splice site location, or signal peptide occurrence. Experiments on Drosophila melanogaster demonstrate that reranking based on cross-species comparison outperforms the best gene models identified by Evigan alone, and also outperforms the comparative gene finders GeneWise and Augustus+. Conclusion Reranking gene models with cross-species comparison improves gene prediction accuracy. This straightforward method can be readily adapted to incorporate additional lines of evidence, as it requires only a ranked source of candidate gene models.

Map of Life - A Dashboard for Monitoring Planetary Species Distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Jetz, W.

2016-12-01

Geographic information about biodiversity is vital for understanding the many services nature provides and their potential changes, yet remains unreliable and often insufficient. By integrating a wide range of knowledge about species distributions and their dynamics over time, Map of Life supports global biodiversity education, monitoring, research and decision-making. Built on a scalable web platform geared for large biodiversity and environmental data, Map of Life endeavors provides species range information globally and species lists for any area. With data and technology provided by NASA and Google Earth Engine, tools under development use remote sensing-based environmental layers to enable on-the-fly predictions of species distributions, range changes, and early warning signals for threatened species. The ultimate vision is a globally connected, collaborative knowledge- and tool-base for regional and local biodiversity decision-making, education, monitoring, and projection. For currently available tools, more information and to follow progress, go to MOL.org.

Determination of Germination Response to Temperature and Water Potential for a Wide Range of Cover Crop Species and Related Functional Groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Tribouillois, Hélène; Dürr, Carolyne; Demilly, Didier; Wagner, Marie-Hélène; Justes, Eric

2016-01-01

A wide range of species can be sown as cover crops during fallow periods to provide various ecosystem services. Plant establishment is a key stage, especially when sowing occurs in summer with high soil temperatures and low water availability. The aim of this study was to determine the response of germination to temperature and water potential for diverse cover crop species. Based on these characteristics, we developed contrasting functional groups that group species with the same germination ability, which may be useful to adapt species choice to climatic sowing conditions. Germination of 36 different species from six botanical families was measured in the laboratory at eight temperatures ranging from 4.5-43°C and at four water potentials. Final germination percentages, germination rate, cardinal temperatures, base temperature and base water potential were calculated for each species. Optimal temperatures varied from 21.3-37.2°C, maximum temperatures at which the species could germinate varied from 27.7-43.0°C and base water potentials varied from -0.1 to -2.6 MPa. Most cover crops were adapted to summer sowing with a relatively high mean optimal temperature for germination, but some Fabaceae species were more sensitive to high temperatures. Species mainly from Poaceae and Brassicaceae were the most resistant to water deficit and germinated under a low base water potential. Species were classified, independent of family, according to their ability to germinate under a range of temperatures and according to their base water potential in order to group species by functional germination groups. These groups may help in choosing the most adapted cover crop species to sow based on climatic conditions in order to favor plant establishment and the services provided by cover crops during fallow periods. Our data can also be useful as germination parameters in crop models to simulate the emergence of cover crops under different pedoclimatic conditions and crop

Multiple glacial refugia of the low-dispersal ground beetle Carabus irregularis: molecular data support predictions of species distribution models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharina Homburg

Full Text Available Classical glacial refugia such as the southern European peninsulas were important for species survival during glacial periods and acted as sources of post-glacial colonisation processes. Only recently, some studies have provided evidence for glacial refugia north of the southern European peninsulas. In the present study, we combined species distribution models (SDMs with phylogeographic analyses (using mitochondrial DNA = mtDNA to investigate if the cold-adapted, stenotopic and flightless ground beetle species, Carabus irregularis, survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM in classical and/or other refugia. SDMs (for both a western European and for a Carpathian subgroup were calculated with MAXENT on the basis of 645 species records to predict current and past distribution patterns. Two mtDNA loci (CO1 and ND5, concatenated sequence length: 1785 bp were analyzed from 91 C. irregularis specimens to reconstruct the phylogeography of Central and eastern European populations and to estimate divergence times of the given lineages. Strong intra-specific genetic differentiation (inter-clade ΦST values ranged from 0.92 to 0.99 implied long-term isolation of major clades and subsclades. The high divergence between the nominate subspecies and the Carpathian subspecies C. i. montandoni points to two independent species rather than subspecies (K-2P distance 0.042 ± 0.004; supposed divergence of the maternal lineages dated back 1.6 to 2.5 million years BP differing not only morphologically but also genetically and ecologically from each other. The SDMs also inferred classical as well as other refugia for C. irregularis, especially north of the Alps, in southeastern Europe and in the Carpathians. The coincidences between the results of both methods confirm the assumption of multiple glacial refugia for the studied species and the usefulness of combining methodological approaches for the understanding of the history of low-dispersal insect species.

Investigation on resistance to drought and efficiency of water usage in two range species, Dactylis glomerata and Eragrostis curvula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jafari, M.; Saiedian, F.; Heydari, H.; Azarnayvand, H.; Farzaneh, Z.

2000-01-01

Determination of water efficiency and resistance to drought in range plants are important factors that have essential role in selection of range development methods. As there is not any comprehensive study in resistance to drought, present research was done with selection of two range species. Selected species were two kinds of Gramineae, namely Dactylis glomerata and Eragrostis curvula. Some parameters such as used water, length, width and number of leaves, dry mass of leaves were studies. Obtained results showed that length and width of leaves were not under stress in irrigation periods, but number of leaves, dry mass of leaf and stem decreased under drought stress. Amount of decrease in Eragrostis curvula was less than Dactylis glomerata Increment of irrigation periods, increased root growth rather than stem, but root growth in Dactylis glomerata was more than Eragrostis curvula for production of dry matter, Dactylis glomerata species has less water requirement and higher water usage efficiency in terms of amount of water usage. In terms of resistance to drought, Eragrostis curvula has more resistance rather than Dactylis glomerata because of high water potential and lower witt ing point

Computational prediction of the Crc regulon identifies genus-wide and species-specific targets of catabolite repression control in Pseudomonas bacteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O'Gara Fergal

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Catabolite repression control (CRC is an important global control system in Pseudomonas that fine tunes metabolism in order optimise growth and metabolism in a range of different environments. The mechanism of CRC in Pseudomonas spp. centres on the binding of a protein, Crc, to an A-rich motif on the 5' end of an mRNA resulting in translational down-regulation of target genes. Despite the identification of several Crc targets in Pseudomonas spp. the Crc regulon has remained largely unexplored. Results In order to predict direct targets of Crc, we used a bioinformatics approach based on detection of A-rich motifs near the initiation of translation of all protein-encoding genes in twelve fully sequenced Pseudomonas genomes. As expected, our data predict that genes related to the utilisation of less preferred nutrients, such as some carbohydrates, nitrogen sources and aromatic carbon compounds are targets of Crc. A general trend in this analysis is that the regulation of transporters is conserved across species whereas regulation of specific enzymatic steps or transcriptional activators are often conserved only within a species. Interestingly, some nucleoid associated proteins (NAPs such as HU and IHF are predicted to be regulated by Crc. This finding indicates a possible role of Crc in indirect control over a subset of genes that depend on the DNA bending properties of NAPs for expression or repression. Finally, some virulence traits such as alginate and rhamnolipid production also appear to be regulated by Crc, which links nutritional status cues with the regulation of virulence traits. Conclusions Catabolite repression control regulates a broad spectrum of genes in Pseudomonas. Some targets are genus-wide and are typically related to central metabolism, whereas other targets are species-specific, or even unique to particular strains. Further study of these novel targets will enhance our understanding of how Pseudomonas

Computational prediction of the Crc regulon identifies genus-wide and species-specific targets of catabolite repression control in Pseudomonas bacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Patrick; Barret, Matthieu; O'Gara, Fergal; Morrissey, John P

2010-11-25

Catabolite repression control (CRC) is an important global control system in Pseudomonas that fine tunes metabolism in order optimise growth and metabolism in a range of different environments. The mechanism of CRC in Pseudomonas spp. centres on the binding of a protein, Crc, to an A-rich motif on the 5' end of an mRNA resulting in translational down-regulation of target genes. Despite the identification of several Crc targets in Pseudomonas spp. the Crc regulon has remained largely unexplored. In order to predict direct targets of Crc, we used a bioinformatics approach based on detection of A-rich motifs near the initiation of translation of all protein-encoding genes in twelve fully sequenced Pseudomonas genomes. As expected, our data predict that genes related to the utilisation of less preferred nutrients, such as some carbohydrates, nitrogen sources and aromatic carbon compounds are targets of Crc. A general trend in this analysis is that the regulation of transporters is conserved across species whereas regulation of specific enzymatic steps or transcriptional activators are often conserved only within a species. Interestingly, some nucleoid associated proteins (NAPs) such as HU and IHF are predicted to be regulated by Crc. This finding indicates a possible role of Crc in indirect control over a subset of genes that depend on the DNA bending properties of NAPs for expression or repression. Finally, some virulence traits such as alginate and rhamnolipid production also appear to be regulated by Crc, which links nutritional status cues with the regulation of virulence traits. Catabolite repression control regulates a broad spectrum of genes in Pseudomonas. Some targets are genus-wide and are typically related to central metabolism, whereas other targets are species-specific, or even unique to particular strains. Further study of these novel targets will enhance our understanding of how Pseudomonas bacteria integrate nutritional status cues with the regulation

Computational prediction of the Crc regulon identifies genus-wide and species-specific targets of catabolite repression control in Pseudomonas bacteria

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Browne, Patrick

2010-11-25

Abstract Background Catabolite repression control (CRC) is an important global control system in Pseudomonas that fine tunes metabolism in order optimise growth and metabolism in a range of different environments. The mechanism of CRC in Pseudomonas spp. centres on the binding of a protein, Crc, to an A-rich motif on the 5\\' end of an mRNA resulting in translational down-regulation of target genes. Despite the identification of several Crc targets in Pseudomonas spp. the Crc regulon has remained largely unexplored. Results In order to predict direct targets of Crc, we used a bioinformatics approach based on detection of A-rich motifs near the initiation of translation of all protein-encoding genes in twelve fully sequenced Pseudomonas genomes. As expected, our data predict that genes related to the utilisation of less preferred nutrients, such as some carbohydrates, nitrogen sources and aromatic carbon compounds are targets of Crc. A general trend in this analysis is that the regulation of transporters is conserved across species whereas regulation of specific enzymatic steps or transcriptional activators are often conserved only within a species. Interestingly, some nucleoid associated proteins (NAPs) such as HU and IHF are predicted to be regulated by Crc. This finding indicates a possible role of Crc in indirect control over a subset of genes that depend on the DNA bending properties of NAPs for expression or repression. Finally, some virulence traits such as alginate and rhamnolipid production also appear to be regulated by Crc, which links nutritional status cues with the regulation of virulence traits. Conclusions Catabolite repression control regulates a broad spectrum of genes in Pseudomonas. Some targets are genus-wide and are typically related to central metabolism, whereas other targets are species-specific, or even unique to particular strains. Further study of these novel targets will enhance our understanding of how Pseudomonas bacteria integrate

Artificial neural network model to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duchesne, Marc A. [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Macchi, Arturo [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); Lu, Dennis Y.; Hughes, Robin W.; McCalden, David; Anthony, Edward J. [CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

2010-08-15

Threshold slag viscosity heuristics are often used for the initial assessment of coal gasification projects. Slag viscosity predictions are also required for advanced combustion and gasification models. Due to unsatisfactory performance of theoretical equations, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions. This model outperforms other slag viscosity models, resulting in an average error factor of 5.05 which is lower than the best obtained with other available models. Genesee coal ash viscosity predictions were made to investigate the effect of adding Canadian limestone and dolomite. The results indicate that magnesium in the fluxing agent provides a greater viscosity reduction than calcium for the threshold slag tapping temperature range. (author)

Predicting animal home-range structure and transitions using a multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck biased random walk

Science.gov (United States)

Breed, Greg A.; Golson, Emily A.; Tinker, M. Tim

2017-01-01

The home‐range concept is central in animal ecology and behavior, and numerous mechanistic models have been developed to understand home range formation and maintenance. These mechanistic models usually assume a single, contiguous home range. Here we describe and implement a simple home‐range model that can accommodate multiple home‐range centers, form complex shapes, allow discontinuities in use patterns, and infer how external and internal variables affect movement and use patterns. The model assumes individuals associate with two or more home‐range centers and move among them with some estimable probability. Movement in and around home‐range centers is governed by a two‐dimensional Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process, while transitions between centers are modeled as a stochastic state‐switching process. We augmented this base model by introducing environmental and demographic covariates that modify transition probabilities between home‐range centers and can be estimated to provide insight into the movement process. We demonstrate the model using telemetry data from sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in California. The model was fit using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which estimated transition probabilities, as well as unique Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck diffusion and centralizing tendency parameters. Estimated parameters could then be used to simulate movement and space use that was virtually indistinguishable from real data. We used Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores to assess model fit and determined that both wind and reproductive status were predictive of transitions between home‐range centers. Females were less likely to move between home‐range centers on windy days, less likely to move between centers when tending pups, and much more likely to move between centers just after weaning a pup. These tendencies are predicted by theoretical movement rules but were not previously known and show that our model can extract meaningful

Predicting animal home-range structure and transitions using a multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck biased random walk.

Science.gov (United States)

Breed, Greg A; Golson, Emily A; Tinker, M Tim

2017-01-01

The home-range concept is central in animal ecology and behavior, and numerous mechanistic models have been developed to understand home range formation and maintenance. These mechanistic models usually assume a single, contiguous home range. Here we describe and implement a simple home-range model that can accommodate multiple home-range centers, form complex shapes, allow discontinuities in use patterns, and infer how external and internal variables affect movement and use patterns. The model assumes individuals associate with two or more home-range centers and move among them with some estimable probability. Movement in and around home-range centers is governed by a two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, while transitions between centers are modeled as a stochastic state-switching process. We augmented this base model by introducing environmental and demographic covariates that modify transition probabilities between home-range centers and can be estimated to provide insight into the movement process. We demonstrate the model using telemetry data from sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in California. The model was fit using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which estimated transition probabilities, as well as unique Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion and centralizing tendency parameters. Estimated parameters could then be used to simulate movement and space use that was virtually indistinguishable from real data. We used Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores to assess model fit and determined that both wind and reproductive status were predictive of transitions between home-range centers. Females were less likely to move between home-range centers on windy days, less likely to move between centers when tending pups, and much more likely to move between centers just after weaning a pup. These tendencies are predicted by theoretical movement rules but were not previously known and show that our model can extract meaningful behavioral insight from complex

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

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Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range

Sustaining Biodiversity in the Oregon Coast Range: Potential effects of Forest Policies in a Multi-ownership Province

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Brenda C. McComb

2007-12-01

Full Text Available To understand the potential effects of forest policies on sustaining biological diversity at broad scales, we used spatial simulation models to evaluate current and potential future habitat availability over 100 yr for three focal species: Pacific Fisher (Martes pennanti, Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus, and Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus. The habitats of these species represent a broad range of spatial scales and forest types. Area of habitat for fishers and Pileated Woodpeckers is predicted to increase over time under current forest land management policies. Habitat for Warbling Vireos is predicted to decline. These patterns are consistent with past analyses that predicted declines in diverse early successional forests and hardwood forests and increases in late-successional forests under current and two alternative policies. Land ownership influenced the spatial arrangement of habitat for all three focal species. Public lands subsidized habitat for wide-ranging species on adjacent private lands. A land use policy that required greater green tree retention on private lands seemed to result in modest increases in habitat quality over 100 yr for Pileated Woodpeckers. Thinning of plantations on federal lands had little effect on these focal species. Policy analyses such as these highlight incongruities between historic habitat patterns and contemporary spatial and temporal scales of habitat in managed landscapes. This information can be used to assess risks and inform the policy debates surrounding biodiversity conservation.

The first study of molecular prevalence and species characterization of Cryptosporidium in free-range chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) from Brazil.

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Ewald, Maria Paula de Carvalho; Martins, Felippe Danyel Cardoso; Caldart, Eloiza Teles; Vieira, Fernando Emmanuel Gonçalves; Yamamura, Milton Hissashi; Sasse, João Pedro; Barros, Luiz Daniel de; Freire, Roberta Lemos; Navarro, Italmar Teodorico; Garcia, João Luis

2017-01-01

Rearing free-range chicken is based on grazing feeding patterns, and these animals could be potential environmental contaminants of Cryptosporidium oocysts for humans and other animals. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the molecular prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. in free-range chickens from Brazil. A total of 351 fecal samples from chickens were examined from 20 farms. For detection of Cryptosporidium spp., 18S rRNA gene fragments were amplified using a nested PCR reaction. Positive samples were sent for sequencing. The overall prevalence of Cryptosporidium was 25.6% (95% CI = 21.2% - 30.6%). Sequencing of the amplified fragments allowed for the identification of three species: C. meleagridis in 57 (62.6%), C. baileyi in 15 (16.4%), C. parvum in 3 (3.2%) samples, and a new Cryptosporidium genotype (C. genotype BrPR1) in 3 (3.2%) samples. Cryptosporidium genotype BrPR1 has not yet been classified as a species, and its host spectrum is not known. Cryptosporidium, including zoonotic species, exists at a high prevalence in free-range chickens within the region studied.

To eat and not be eaten: modelling resources and safety in multi-species animal groups.

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Umesh Srinivasan

Full Text Available Using mixed-species bird flocks as an example, we model the payoffs for two types of species from participating in multi-species animal groups. Salliers feed on mobile prey, are good sentinels and do not affect prey capture rates of gleaners; gleaners feed on prey on substrates and can enhance the prey capture rate of salliers by flushing prey, but are poor sentinels. These functional types are known from various animal taxa that form multi-species associations. We model costs and benefits of joining groups for a wide range of group compositions under varying abundances of two types of prey-prey on substrates and mobile prey. Our model predicts that gleaners and salliers show a conflict of interest in multi-species groups, because gleaners benefit from increasing numbers of salliers in the group, whereas salliers benefit from increasing gleaner numbers. The model also predicts that the limits to size and variability in composition of multi-species groups are driven by the relative abundance of different types of prey, independent of predation pressure. Our model emphasises resources as a primary driver of temporal and spatial group dynamics, rather than reproductive activity or predation per se, which have hitherto been thought to explain patterns of multi-species group formation and cohesion. The qualitative predictions of the model are supported by empirical patterns from both terrestrial and marine multi-species groups, suggesting that similar mechanisms might underlie group dynamics in a range of taxa. The model also makes novel predictions about group dynamics that can be tested using variation across space and time.

Assessment of ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sample, B.

1995-01-01

Ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites generally focuses on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area. While appropriate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination, this approach is not adequate for sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites. These species may therefore be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a site (and therefore exposure and risk) by wildlife is dependent upon the availability of habitat. Availability and distribution of habitat on the ORR was determined using satellite imagery. The proportion of habitat within contaminated areas was then determined by overlaying boundaries of contaminated areas (Operable Units or OUs) on the ORR habitat map. The likelihood of contaminant exposure was estimated by comparing the habitat requirements for wildlife species to the proportion of suitable habitat within OUs. OU-specific contaminant concentrations in surface water, soil, or biota were used to estimate the magnitude of risk presented by each DU. The proportion of ORR-wide population likely to be exposed was estimated using literature-derived population density data for each endpoint. At present, due to major data gaps (i.e., lack of data for all OUs, site-specific population density or habitat use data, etc.) uncertainty associated with conclusions is high. Results of this assessment must therefore be considered to be preliminary

Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade.

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Brenton-Rule, Evan C; Barbieri, Rafael F; Lester, Philip J

2016-06-15

Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders. © 2016 The Author(s).

Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits

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Komdeur Jan

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict, and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT. We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT and South Africa (CPT. Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Results Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. Conclusions These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT. Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each

Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijk, René E; Pogány, Akos; Komdeur, Jan; Lloyd, Penn; Székely, Tamás

2010-04-23

The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict), and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT) exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT). We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT) and South Africa (CPT). Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT) exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT). Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each member of the breeding pair attempts to shift the

Regional Variation in Parasite Species Richness and Abundance in the Introduced Range of the Invasive Lionfish, Pterois volitans.

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Sellers, Andrew J; Ruiz, Gregory M; Leung, Brian; Torchin, Mark E

2015-01-01

Parasites can play an important role in biological invasions. While introduced species often lose parasites from their native range, they can also accumulate novel parasites in their new range. The accumulation of parasites by introduced species likely varies spatially, and more parasites may shift to new hosts where parasite diversity is high. Considering that parasitism and disease are generally more prevalent at lower latitudes, the accumulation of parasites by introduced hosts may be greater in tropical regions. The Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) has become widely distributed across the Western Atlantic. In this study, we compared parasitism across thirteen locations in four regions, spanning seventeen degrees of latitude in the lionfish's introduced range to examine potential spatial variation in parasitism. In addition, as an initial step to explore how indirect effects of parasitism might influence interactions between lionfish and ecologically similar native hosts, we also compared parasitism in lionfish and two co-occurring native fish species, the graysby grouper, Cephalopholis cruentata, and the lizardfish, Synodus intermedius, in the southernmost region, Panama. Our results show that accumulation of native parasites on lionfish varies across broad spatial scales, and that colonization by ectoparasites was highest in Panama, relative to the other study sites. Endoparasite richness and abundance, on the other hand, were highest in Belize where lionfish were infected by twice as many endoparasite species as lionfish in other regions. The prevalence of all but two parasite species infecting lionfish was below 25%, and we did not detect an association between parasite abundance and host condition, suggesting a limited direct effect of parasites on lionfish, even where parasitism was highest. Further, parasite species richness and abundance were significantly higher in both native fishes compared to lionfish, and parasite abundance was negatively

Regional Variation in Parasite Species Richness and Abundance in the Introduced Range of the Invasive Lionfish, Pterois volitans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Sellers

Full Text Available Parasites can play an important role in biological invasions. While introduced species often lose parasites from their native range, they can also accumulate novel parasites in their new range. The accumulation of parasites by introduced species likely varies spatially, and more parasites may shift to new hosts where parasite diversity is high. Considering that parasitism and disease are generally more prevalent at lower latitudes, the accumulation of parasites by introduced hosts may be greater in tropical regions. The Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans has become widely distributed across the Western Atlantic. In this study, we compared parasitism across thirteen locations in four regions, spanning seventeen degrees of latitude in the lionfish's introduced range to examine potential spatial variation in parasitism. In addition, as an initial step to explore how indirect effects of parasitism might influence interactions between lionfish and ecologically similar native hosts, we also compared parasitism in lionfish and two co-occurring native fish species, the graysby grouper, Cephalopholis cruentata, and the lizardfish, Synodus intermedius, in the southernmost region, Panama. Our results show that accumulation of native parasites on lionfish varies across broad spatial scales, and that colonization by ectoparasites was highest in Panama, relative to the other study sites. Endoparasite richness and abundance, on the other hand, were highest in Belize where lionfish were infected by twice as many endoparasite species as lionfish in other regions. The prevalence of all but two parasite species infecting lionfish was below 25%, and we did not detect an association between parasite abundance and host condition, suggesting a limited direct effect of parasites on lionfish, even where parasitism was highest. Further, parasite species richness and abundance were significantly higher in both native fishes compared to lionfish, and parasite

Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

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Dirk Cannon

2017-06-01

Full Text Available State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state.The bounds of skilful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6–8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4–2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5–5.5 days. The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days.

Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

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Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

2015-06-01

The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.

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Ettinger, Ailene; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2017-09-01

Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Species-area relationships are controlled by species traits.

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Franzén, Markus; Schweiger, Oliver; Betzholtz, Per-Eric

2012-01-01

The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most thoroughly investigated empirical relationships in ecology. Two theories have been proposed to explain SARs: classical island biogeography theory and niche theory. Classical island biogeography theory considers the processes of persistence, extinction, and colonization, whereas niche theory focuses on species requirements, such as habitat and resource use. Recent studies have called for the unification of these two theories to better explain the underlying mechanisms that generates SARs. In this context, species traits that can be related to each theory seem promising. Here we analyzed the SARs of butterfly and moth assemblages on islands differing in size and isolation. We tested whether species traits modify the SAR and the response to isolation. In addition to the expected overall effects on the area, traits related to each of the two theories increased the model fit, from 69% up to 90%. Steeper slopes have been shown to have a particularly higher sensitivity to area, which was indicated by species with restricted range (slope = 0.82), narrow dietary niche (slope= 0.59), low abundance (slope= 0.52), and low reproductive potential (slope = 0.51). We concluded that considering species traits by analyzing SARs yields considerable potential for unifying island biogeography theory and niche theory, and that the systematic and predictable effects observed when considering traits can help to guide conservation and management actions.

Effects of native and exotic range-expanding plant species on taxonomic and functional composition of nematodes in the soil food web

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Morrien, E.; Duyts, H.; Van der Putten, W.H.

2012-01-01

Due to climate warming, many plant species shift ranges towards higher latitudes. Plants can disperse faster than most soil biota, however, little is known about how range-expanding plants in the new range will establish interactions with the resident soil food web. In this paper we examine how the

The Eocene Arctic Azolla phenomenon: species composition, temporal range and geographic extent.

Science.gov (United States)

Collinson, Margaret; Barke, Judith; van der Burgh, Johan; van Konijnenburg-van Cittert, Johanna; Pearce, Martin; Bujak, Jonathan; Brinkhuis, Henk

2010-05-01

Azolla is a free-floating freshwater fern that is renowned for its rapid vegetative spread and invasive biology, being one of the world's fastest growing aquatic macrophytes. Two species of this plant have been shown to have bloomed and reproduced in enormous numbers in the latest Early to earliest Middle Eocene of the Arctic Ocean and North Sea based on samples from IODP cores from the Lomonosov Ridge (Arctic) and from outcrops in Denmark (Collinson et al 2009 a,b Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 155,1-14; and doi:10.1016/j.revpalbo.2009.12.001). To determine the geographic and temporal extent of this Azolla phenomenon, and the spatial distribution of the different species, we have examined samples from 15 additional sites using material from ODP cores and commercial exploration wells. The sites range from the Sub-Arctic (Northern Alaska and Canadian Beaufort Mackenzie Basin) to the Nordic Seas (Norwegian-Greenland Sea and North Sea Basin). Our data show that the Azolla phenomenon involved at least three species. These are distinguished by characters of the megaspore apparatus (e.g. megaspore wall, floats, filosum) and the microspore massulae (e.g. glochidia fluke tips). The Lomonosov Ridge (Arctic) and Danish occurrences are monotypic but in other sites more than one species co-existed. The attachment to one another and the co-occurrence of megaspore apparatus and microspore massulae, combined with evidence that these spores were shed at the fully mature stage of their life cycle, shows that the Azolla remains were not transported over long distances, a fact which could not be assumed from isolated massula fragments alone. Our evidence, therefore, shows that Azolla plants grew on the ocean surfaces for approximately 1.2 million years (from 49.3 to 48.1 Ma) and that the Azolla phenomenon covered the area from Denmark northwards across the North Sea Basin and the whole of the Arctic and Nordic seas. Apparently, early Middle Eocene Northern Hemisphere middle

Comparative phylogeography of two related plant species with overlapping ranges in Europe, and the potential effects of climate change on their intraspecific genetic diversity

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Provan Jim

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of the present study was to use a combined phylogeographic and species distribution modelling approach to compare the glacial histories of two plant species with overlapping distributions, Orthilia secunda (one-sided wintergreen and Monotropa hypopitys (yellow bird's nest. Phylogeographic analysis was carried out to determine the distribution of genetic variation across the range of each species and to test whether both correspond to the "classic" model of high diversity in the south, with decreasing diversity at higher latitudes, or whether the cold-adapted O. secunda might retain more genetic variation in northern populations. In addition, projected species distributions based on a future climate scenario were modelled to assess how changes in the species ranges might impact on total intraspecific diversity in both cases. Results Palaeodistribution modelling and phylogeographic analysis using multiple genetic markers (chloroplast trnS-trnG region, nuclear ITS and microsatellites for O. secunda; chloroplast rps2, nuclear ITS and microsatellites for M. hypopitys indicated that both species persisted throughout the Last Glacial Maximum in southern refugia. For both species, the majority of the genetic diversity was concentrated in these southerly populations, whereas those in recolonized areas generally exhibited lower levels of diversity, particularly in M. hypopitys. Species distribution modelling based on projected future climate indicated substantial changes in the ranges of both species, with a loss of southern and central populations, and a potential northward expansion for the temperate M. hypopitys. Conclusions Both Orthilia secunda and Monotropa hypopitys appear to have persisted through the LGM in Europe in southern refugia. The boreal O. secunda, however, has retained a larger proportion of its genetic diversity in more northerly populations outside these refugial areas than the temperate M. hypopitys. Given

Predicting Potential Changes in Suitable Habitat and Distribution by 2100 for Tree Species of the Eastern United States

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Louis R Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

2005-01-01

We predict current distribution and abundance for tree species present in eastern North America, and subsequently estimate potential suitable habitat for those species under a changed climate with 2 x CO2. We used a series of statistical models (i.e., Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Bagging Trees (...

Interplay between subsurface structural heterogeneity and multi-species reactive transport in human health risk predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Henri, C.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; de Barros, F.

2013-12-01

The increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface has led to a rapid growth of social concerns and to the need to develop and employ models that can predict the impact of groundwater contamination in human health under uncertainty. Monitored natural attenuation is a common remediation action in many contamination cases and represents an attractive decontamination method. However, natural attenuation can lead to the production of subspecies of distinct toxicity that may pose challenges in pollution management strategies. The actual threat that these contaminants pose to human health and ecosystems greatly depends on the interplay between the complexity of the geological system and the toxicity of the pollutants and their byproducts. In this work, we examine the interplay between multispecies reactive transport and the heterogeneous structure of the contaminated aquifer on human health risk predictions. The structure and organization of hydraulic properties of the aquifer can lead to preferential flow channels and fast contamination pathways. Early travel times, associated to channeling effects, are intuitively perceived as an indicator for high risk. However, in the case of multi-species systems, early travel times may also lead a limited production of daughter species that may contain higher toxicity as in the case of chlorinated compounds. In this work, we model a Perchloroethylene (PCE) contamination problem followed by the sequential first-order production/biodegradation of its daughter species Trichloroethylene (TCE), Dichloroethylene (DCE) and Vinyl Chlorine (VC). For this specific case, VC is known to be a highly toxic contaminant. By performing numerical experiments, we evaluate transport for two distinct three-dimensional aquifer structures. First, a multi-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field and secondly, a geostatistically equivalent connected field. These two heterogeneity structures will provide two distinct ranges of mean travel

Expansion of an exotic species and concomitant disease outbreaks: pigeon paramyxovirus in free-ranging Eurasian collared doves.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuler, Krysten L; Green, David E; Justice-Allen, Anne E; Jaffe, Rosemary; Cunningham, Mark; Thomas, Nancy J; Spalding, Marilyn G; Ip, Hon S

2012-06-01

Eurasian collared doves (Streptopelia decaocto) have expanded their range across the United States since their introduction several decades ago. Recent mortality events in Eurasian collared doves in Arizona and Montana, USA, during the winter of 2009-2010 were the result of pigeon paramyxovirus (PPMV), a novel disease agent. The first instance of mortality by this emerging infectious disease in this species occurred in Florida in 2001 with subsequent disease events in 2006 and 2008. Full diagnostic necropsies were performed on carcasses from the three states. PPMV was identified by RT-PCR and virus isolation and was sequenced to the VIb genotype of avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV). Other APMVs are common in a variety of free-ranging birds, but concern is warranted because of the potential for commingling of this species with native birds, virus evolution, and threats to domestic poultry. Improved surveillance for wildlife mortality events and efforts to prevent introduction of non-native animals could reduce the threat of introducing new pathogens.

Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

Science.gov (United States)

Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Kimberley, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M; Haack, Robert A; Cavey, Joseph F

2014-03-01

Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

A Vertically Flow-Following, Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part 1: Model Description

Science.gov (United States)

Bleck, Rainer; Bao, Jian-Wen; Benjamin, Stanley G.; Brown, John M.; Fiorino, Michael; Henderson, Thomas B.; Lee, Jin-Luen; MacDonald, Alexander E.; Madden, Paul; Middlecoff, Jacques;

Mechanisms controlling the distribution of two invasive Bromus species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Bykova

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In order to predict future range shifts for invasive species it is important to explore their ability to acclimate to the new environment and understand physiological and reproductive constraints controlling their distribution. My dissertation studied mechanisms by which temperature may affect the distribution of two aggressive plant invaders in North America, Bromus tectorum and Bromus rubens. I first evaluated winter freezing tolerance of Bromus species and demonstrated that the mechanism explaining their distinct northern range limits is different acquisition time of freezing tolerance. While B. rubens has a slower rate of freezing acclimation that leads to intolerance of sudden, late-autumn drops in temperature below -12°C, B. tectorum rapidly hardens and so is not impacted by the sudden onset of severe late-autumn cold. In addition, the analysis of male reproductive development and seed production showed that neither species produces seed at or above 36°C, due to complete pollen sterility, which might trigger climate-mediated range contractions at B. tectorum and B. rubens southern margins. Finally, a detailed gas-exchange analysis combined with biochemical modelling demonstrated that both species acclimate to a broad range of temperatures and photosynthetic response to temperature does not explain their current range separation.

Predicting Emergence of the Most Important Weed Species in Soybean (Glycine max L. under Different Management Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Khakzad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Summer annual weeds typically germinate in spring and early summer, grow throughout the summer, and set seeds by fall. Summer annual weeds are a persistent problem in summer annual row crops, competing directly for water, light, and nutrients, causing yield losses in quantity and quality. Although agriculture is increasingly relying on modern technology, knowledge of the biological systems in which these technologies are used is still critical for implementation of management strategies. Biological information about weeds is valuable and necessary for developing management strategies to minimize their impact. Scouting fields for pest problems are essential in any cropping system and knowledge of the timing and sequence of weed species emergence could increase the effectiveness of weed scouting trips and subsequent management practices. The success of any annual plant is directly correlated to its time of seedling emergence because it determines the ability of a plant to compete with its neighbors, survive biotic and abiotic stresses, and reproduce. The period and pattern of emergence of the weed community depend on the species present in the seed bank and their interaction with the environment. Therefore, knowledge of the weed species present in the soil seed bank and when these species are most likely to emerge is important in planning effective weed control programs. Temperature has been reported to be the main environmental factor regulating germination and emergence of weed species. Scientists have developed TT models to predict the emergence of weed species based on a daily accumulation of heat units or growing degree days (GDD above a minimum base threshold value (Tbase. The predictive models for weed emergence based on the accumulation of TT appear to be accurate enough for projections of weed emergence time (Grundy 2003. Moreover, soil temperature data are easily accessible, making this type of model practical and useful to

Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

1996-09-01

More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

1996-09-01

More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species

A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species

OpenAIRE

Bach, Dominik R

2015-01-01

In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and ins...

Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckland, Steeves; Cole, Nik C; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Gallagher, Laura E; Henshaw, Sion M; Besnard, Aurélien; Tucker, Rachel M; Bachraz, Vishnu; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steeves Buckland

Full Text Available The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp. that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds

Science.gov (United States)

Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. PMID:29467262

Ice age distriutions of European small mammals: insights from species distribution modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fløjgaard, Camilla; Normand, Signe; Skov, Flemming

2009-01-01

limits corresponding to the limits of temperate or boreal forest or arctic tundra were used in the analysis. We developed predictive distribution models based on the species present-day European distributions and validated these against their present-day Siberian ranges. The models with the best...... lemmus and Microtus oeconomus), suitable climate was predicted from the Atlantic coast eastward across central Europe and into Russia. Main conclusions. Our results support the idea of more northerly refuge areas in Europe, indicating that boreal species would have found suitable living conditions over...

Expressed sequence tags from heat-shocked seagrass Zostera noltii (Hornemann) from its southern distribution range

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Massa, Sonia I.; Pearson, Gareth A.; Aires, Tania; Kube, Michael; Olsen, Jeanine L.; Reinhardt, Richard; Serrao, Ester A.; Arnaud-Haond, Sophie

Predicted global climate change threatens the distributional ranges of species worldwide. We identified genes expressed in the intertidal seagrass Zostera midi during recovery from a simulated low tide heat-shock exposure. Five Expressed Sequence Tag (EST) libraries were compared, corresponding to

Tree species and soil nutrient profiles in old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

2011-01-01

Old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique opportunity to examine tree species – soil relationships in ecosystems that have developed without significant human disturbance. We characterized foliage, forest floor, and mineral soil nutrients associated with four canopy tree species (Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), and bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum Pursh)) in eight old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range. The greatest forest floor accumulations of C, N, P, Ca, Mg, and K occurred under Douglas-fir, primarily due to greater forest floor mass. In mineral soil, western hemlock exhibited significantly lower Ca concentration and sum of cations (Ca + Mg + K) than bigleaf maple, with intermediate values for Douglas-fir and western redcedar. Bigleaf maple explained most species-based differences in foliar nutrients, displaying high concentrations of N, P, Ca, Mg, and K. Foliar P and N:P variations largely reflected soil P variation across sites. The four tree species that we examined exhibited a number of individualistic effects on soil nutrient levels that contribute to biogeochemical heterogeneity in these ecosystems. Where fire suppression and long-term succession favor dominance by highly shade-tolerant western hemlock, our results suggest a potential for declines in both soil Ca availability and soil biogeochemical heterogeneity in old-growth forests.

Effects of different dispersal patterns on the presence-absence of multiple species

Science.gov (United States)

Mohd, Mohd Hafiz; Murray, Rua; Plank, Michael J.; Godsoe, William

2018-03-01

Predicting which species will be present (or absent) across a geographical region remains one of the key problems in ecology. Numerous studies have suggested several ecological factors that can determine species presence-absence: environmental factors (i.e. abiotic environments), interactions among species (i.e. biotic interactions) and dispersal process. While various ecological factors have been considered, less attention has been given to the problem of understanding how different dispersal patterns, in interaction with other factors, shape community assembly in the presence of priority effects (i.e. where relative initial abundances determine the long-term presence-absence of each species). By employing both local and non-local dispersal models, we investigate the consequences of different dispersal patterns on the occurrence of priority effects and coexistence in multi-species communities. In the case of non-local, but short-range dispersal, we observe agreement with the predictions of local models for weak and medium dispersal strength, but disagreement for relatively strong dispersal levels. Our analysis shows the existence of a threshold value in dispersal strength (i.e. saddle-node bifurcation) above which priority effects disappear. These results also reveal a co-dimension 2 point, corresponding to a degenerate transcritical bifurcation: at this point, the transcritical bifurcation changes from subcritical to supercritical with corresponding creation of a saddle-node bifurcation curve. We observe further contrasting effects of non-local dispersal as dispersal distance changes: while very long-range dispersal can lead to species extinctions, intermediate-range dispersal can permit more outcomes with multi-species coexistence than short-range dispersal (or purely local dispersal). Overall, our results show that priority effects are more pronounced in the non-local dispersal models than in the local dispersal models. Taken together, our findings highlight

Development of migration prediction system (MIGSTEM) for cationic species of radionuclides through soil layers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohnuki, Toshihiko; Takebe, Shinichi; Yamamoto, Tadatoshi

1989-01-01

The migration prediction system (MIGSTEM) has been developed for estimating the migration of cationic species of radionuclides through soil layers systematically. The MIGSTEM consists of the migration experiments, the one-dimensional fitting code (inverse analysis code) for determining retardation factor and dispersivity (migration factors) and the three-dimensional differential code (prediction code) for estimating the migration of the radionuclides. The migration experiments are carried out for obtaining the concentration profiles of the radionuclides in unsaturated and saturated soil layers. Using the inverse analysis code, the migration factors are obtained at one time by fitting the concentration profiles calculated to those observed. The prediction code can give the contours of concentration and the one-dimensional concentration profiles at selected time, as well as the changing in the concentration at a selected position with time. The validity of the MIGSTEM was obtained by the benchmark test on the prediction and inverse analysis codes. The MIGSTEM was applied to estimate the migration of Sr 2+ through the sandy soil. (author)

The potential of selected macroalgal species for treatment of AMD at different pH ranges in temperate regions

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Oberholster, Paul J

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The metal bioaccumulation potential of selected macroalgae species at different pH ranges was study for usage as part of a possible secondary passive acid mine drainage (AMD) treatment technology in algae ponds. Two separate studies were conducted...

Prediction of the metabolizable energy requirements of free-range laying hens.

Science.gov (United States)

Brainer, M M A; Rabello, C B V; Santos, M J B; Lopes, C C; Ludke, J V; Silva, J H V; Lima, R A

2016-01-01

This experiment was conducted with the aim of estimating the ME requirements of free-range laying hens for maintenance, weight gain, and egg production. These experiments were performed to develop an energy requirement prediction equation by using the comparative slaughter technique and the total excreta collection method. Regression equations were used to relate the energy intake, the energy retained in the body and eggs, and the heat production of the hens. These relationships were used to determine the daily ME requirement for maintenance, the efficiency energy utilization above the requirements for maintenance, and the NE requirement for maintenance. The requirement for weight gain was estimated from the energy content of the carcass, and the diet's efficiency energy utilization was determined from the weight gain, which was measured during weekly slaughter. The requirement for egg production was estimated by considering the energy content of the eggs and the efficiency of energy deposition in the eggs. The requirement and efficiency energy utilization for maintenance were 121.8 kcal ME/(kg∙d)and 0.68, respectively. Similarly, the NE requirement for maintenance was 82.4 kcal ME/(kg∙d), and the efficiency energy utilization above maintenance was 0.61. Because the carcass body weight and energy did not increase during the trial, the weight gain could not be estimated. The requirements for egg production requirement and efficiency energy utilization for egg production were 2.48 kcal/g and 0.61, respectively. The following energy prediction equation for free-range laying hens (without weight gain) was developed: ME /(hen ∙ d) = 121.8 × W + 2.48 × EM, in which W = body weight (kg) and EM = egg mass (g/[hen ∙ d]).

Dynamic Seascapes Predict the Marine Occurrence of an Endangered Species

Science.gov (United States)

Breece, M.; Fox, D. A.; Dunton, K. J.; Frisk, M. G.; Jordaan, A.; Oliver, M. J.

2016-12-01

Landscapes are powerful environmental partitions that index complex biogeochemical processes that drive terrestrial species distributions. However, translating landscapes into seascapes requires that the dynamic nature of the fluid environment be reflected in spatial and temporal boundaries such that seascapes can be used in marine species distribution models and conservation decisions. A seascape product derived from satellite ocean color and sea surface temperature partitioned mid-Atlantic coastal waters on scales commensurate with the Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus coastal migration. The seascapes were then matched with acoustic telemetry records of Atlantic Sturgeon to determine seascape selectivity. To test our model, we used real-time satellite seascape maps to normalize the sampling of an autonomous underwater vehicle that resampled similar geographic regions with time varying seascape classifications. We found that Atlantic Sturgeon exhibited preference for one seascape class over those available in the coastal ocean, indicating selection for environmental properties that co-varied with the dynamic seascape class rather than geographical location. The recent listing of Atlantic Sturgeon as Endangered throughout much of their United States range has highlighted the need for improved understanding of their occurrence in marine waters to reduce interactions with various anthropogenic stressors. Narrow dynamic migration corridors may enable seascapes to be used as a daily decision tool by industry and managers to reduce interactions with this Endangered Species during coastal migrations.

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M

2017-06-01

Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual

NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird species richness in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....

In-flight measurements and RCS-predictions: A comparison on broad-side radar range profiles of a Boeing 737

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heiden, R. van der; Ewijk, L.J. van; Groen, F.C.A.

1997-01-01

The validation of Radar Cross Section (RCS) prediction techniques against real measurements is crucial to acquire confidence in predictions when measurements are not available. In this paper we present the first results of a comparison on one dimensional images, i.e., radar range profiles. The

Using individual differences to predict job performance: correcting for direct and indirect restriction of range.

Science.gov (United States)

Sjöberg, Sofia; Sjöberg, Anders; Näswall, Katharina; Sverke, Magnus

2012-08-01

The present study investigates the relationship between individual differences, indicated by personality (FFM) and general mental ability (GMA), and job performance applying two different methods of correction for range restriction. The results, derived by analyzing meta-analytic correlations, show that the more accurate method of correcting for indirect range restriction increased the operational validity of individual differences in predicting job performance and that this increase primarily was due to general mental ability being a stronger predictor than any of the personality traits. The estimates for single traits can be applied in practice to maximize prediction of job performance. Further, differences in the relative importance of general mental ability in relation to overall personality assessment methods was substantive and the estimates provided enables practitioners to perform a correct utility analysis of their overall selection procedure. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Predicting Long-Range Traversability from Short-Range Stereo-Derived Geometry

Science.gov (United States)

Turmon, Michael; Tang, Benyang; Howard, Andrew; Brjaracharya, Max

2010-01-01

Based only on its appearance in imagery, this program uses close-range 3D terrain analysis to produce training data sufficient to estimate the traversability of terrain beyond 3D sensing range. This approach is called learning from stereo (LFS). In effect, the software transfers knowledge from middle distances, where 3D geometry provides training cues, into the far field where only appearance is available. This is a viable approach because the same obstacle classes, and sometimes the same obstacles, are typically present in the mid-field and the farfield. Learning thus extends the effective look-ahead distance of the sensors.

A luciferase reporter gene assay and aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 genotype predict the LD50 of polychlorinated biphenyls in avian species

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, Gillian E.; Farmahin, Reza; Crump, Doug; Jones, Stephanie P.; Klein, Jeff; Konstantinov, Alex; Potter, Dave; Kennedy, Sean W.

2012-01-01

Birds differ in sensitivity to the embryotoxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which complicates environmental risk assessments for these chemicals. Recent research has shown that the identities of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the avian aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 (AHR1) ligand binding domain (LBD) are primarily responsible for differences in avian species sensitivity to selected dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans. A luciferase reporter gene (LRG) assay was developed in our laboratory to measure AHR1-mediated induction of a cytochrome P450 1A5 reporter gene in COS-7 cells transfected with different avian AHR1 constructs. In the present study, the LRG assay was used to measure the concentration-dependent effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), and PCBs 126, 77, 105 and 118 on luciferase activity in COS-7 cells transfected with AHR1 constructs representative of 86 avian species in order to predict their sensitivity to PCB-induced embryolethality and the relative potency of PCBs in these species. The results of the LRG assay indicate that the identity of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the AHR1 LBD are the major determinants of avian species sensitivity to PCBs. The relative potency of PCBs did not differ greatly among AHR1 constructs. Luciferase activity was significantly correlated with embryolethality data obtained from the literature (R 2 ≥ 0.87, p < 0.0001). Thus, the LRG assay in combination with the knowledge of a species' AHR1 LBD sequence can be used to predict PCB-induced embryolethality in potentially any avian species of interest without the use of lethal methods on a large number of individuals. -- Highlights: ► PCB embryolethality in birds can be predicted from a species' AHR1 genotype. ► The reporter gene assay is useful for predicting species sensitivity to PCBs. ► The relative potency of PCBs does not appear to differ between AHR1 genotypes. ► Contamination of PCB 105 and PCB 118 did not affect their relative

Examination as to the classification of representative tree species at Satoyama coppice forest using multiwavelength range data observed from aircraft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Setojima, M.; Imai, Y.; Funahashi, M.; Kawai, M.; Katsuki, T.

2006-01-01

In this study, we examined the possibility of classifying representative tree species at Satoyama coppice forest based on spectral reflectance of the tree species. We used the airborne hyperspectral data observed in exhibition leaf stage at the test forest (about 3.4ha) in Tama Forest Science Garden (Hachioji, Tokyo) , where the forest type similar to that of Satoyama is preserved. The classification accuracy was verified by comparing the results of interpretation of color aerial photographs taken in spring and autumn in chronological order and the field survey. As a result, the 534-556 nm (band 6 and band 7) in the visible range and 739-762 nm (band 15 and band 16), 785nm (band 17) in the near infrared range are effective bands for classification of the species of such trees as Castanopsis sieboldii, Quercus glauca, Zelkova serrata, Quercus serrata, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obutusa, which are representative trees in Satoyama coppice forest in Tama district

Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xujia; Zheng, Zhihai; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16-18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10-11 days in January, April, and July and only 7-8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks.

Species contributions to single biodiversity values under-estimate whole community contribution to a wider range of values to society.

Science.gov (United States)

Hiron, Matthew; Pärt, Tomas; Siriwardena, Gavin M; Whittingham, Mark J

2018-05-03

A major task for decision makers is deciding how to consider monetary, cultural and conservation values of biodiversity explicitly when planning sustainable land use. Thus, there is a great need to understand just what "valuing" biodiversity or species really means, e.g. regarding how many and which species are important in providing ecosystem services or other values. Constructing ecosystem-level indices, however, requires weighting the relative contribution of species to the different values. Using farmland birds, we illustrate how species contribute to different biodiversity values, namely utilitarian (pest seed predation potential), cultural (species occurrence in poetry), conservational (declines and rarity) and inherent (all species equal) value. Major contributions to each value are often made by a subset of the community and different species are important for different values, leading to no correlations or, in some cases, negative correlations between species' relative contributions to different values. Our results and methods using relative contributions of species to biodiversity values can aid decisions when weighing different values in policies and strategies for natural resource management. We conclude that acknowledging the importance of the range of biodiversity values that are apparent from different perspectives is critical if the full value of biodiversity to society is to be realised.

Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.

2014-01-01

The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests

Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

2017-06-01

Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

A new species of Desmopachria Babington (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) from Cuba with a prediction of its geographic distribution and notes on other Cuban species of the genus.

Science.gov (United States)

Megna, Yoandri S; Sánchez-Fernández, David

2014-01-10

A new species, Desmopachria andreae sp. n. is described from Cuba. Diagnostic characters including illustrations of male genitalia are provided and illustrated for the five species of the genus occurring on the island. For these five species both a simple key to adults and maps of their known distribution in Cuba are also provided. Using a Maximun Entropy method (MaxEnt), a distribution model was developed for D. andreae sp.n. Based on the model's predictions, this species has a higher probability of occurring in high altitude forests (above 1000 m a.s.l.), characterised by relatively low temperatures especially during the hottest and wettest seasons, specifically, the mountainous areas of the Macizo de Guamuhaya (Central Cuba), Sierra Maestra (S Cuba) and Nipe-Sagua-Baracoa (NE Cuba). In some of these areas the species has not yet been recorded, and should be searched for in future field surveys.

Infection of non-host model plant species with the narrow-host-range Cacao swollen shoot virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Friscina, Arianna; Chiappetta, Laura; Jacquemond, Mireille; Tepfer, Mark

2017-02-01

Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) is a major pathogen of cacao (Theobroma cacao) in Africa, and long-standing efforts to limit its spread by the culling of infected trees have had very limited success. CSSV is a particularly difficult virus to study, as it has a very narrow host range, limited to several tropical tree species. Furthermore, the virus is not mechanically transmissible, and its insect vector can only be used with difficulty. Thus, the only efficient means to infect cacao plants that have been experimentally described so far are by particle bombardment or the agroinoculation of cacao plants with an infectious clone. We have genetically transformed three non-host species with an infectious form of the CSSV genome: two experimental hosts widely used in plant virology (Nicotiana tabacum and N. benthamiana) and the model species Arabidopsis thaliana. In transformed plants of all three species, the CSSV genome was able to replicate, and, in tobacco, CSSV particles could be observed by immunosorbent electron microscopy, demonstrating that the complete virus cycle could be completed in a non-host plant. These results will greatly facilitate the preliminary testing of CSSV control strategies using plants that are easy to raise and to transform genetically. © 2016 BSPP AND JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD.

The geography of demography: long-term demographic studies and species distribution models reveal a species border limited by adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Eckhart, V M; Geber, M A; Morris, W F; Fabio, E S; Tiffin, P; Moeller, D A

2011-10-01

Potential causes of species' geographic distribution limits fall into two broad classes: (1) limited adaptation across spatially variable environments and (2) limited opportunities to colonize unoccupied areas. Combining demographic studies, analyses of demographic responses to environmental variation, and species distribution models, we investigated the causes of range limits in a model system, the eastern border of the California annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Vital rates of 20 populations varied with growing season temperature and precipitation: fruit number and overwinter survival of 1-year-old seeds declined steeply, while current-year seed germination increased modestly along west-to-east gradients in decreasing temperature, decreasing mean precipitation, and increasing variation in precipitation. Long-term stochastic finite rate of increase, λ(s), exhibited a fourfold range and varied among geologic surface materials as well as with temperature and precipitation. Growth rate declined significantly toward the eastern border, falling below 1 in three of the five easternmost populations. Distribution models employing demographically important environmental variables predicted low habitat favorability beyond the eastern border. Models that filtered or weighted population presences by λ(s) predicted steeper eastward declines in favorability and assigned greater roles in setting the distribution to among-year variation in precipitation and to geologic surface material. These analyses reveal a species border likely set by limited adaptation to declining environmental quality.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Christine; Stephens, Philip A; Tobias, Joseph A; Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2018-02-28

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. © 2018 The Authors.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

2016-07-06

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Barcoding of Asian seabass across its geographic range provides evidence for its bifurcation into two distinct species

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Shubha eVij

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Asian seabass or barramundi (Lates calcarifer is an important food fish with commercial value and a wide geographic distribution. Though some reports based on molecular and/or morphological data exist, a comprehensive effort to establish species identity across its range is lacking. In order to address this issue and especially to ascertain whether the wide-spread distribution has resulted in bifurcation of the species, we collected Asian seabass samples from various locations representing the Western and Eastern Coastline of India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Bangladesh and Australia. Samples from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore were collected as part of a previous study. DNA sequence variations, including cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI, 16S rDNA and the highly variable D-loop (or control region, were examined to establish species delineation. Data from all the sequences analyzed concordantly point to the existence of at least two distinct species - one representing the Indian subcontinent plus Myanmar, and a second, representing Southeast Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia plus Northern Australia. These data are useful for conservation ecology, aquaculture management, for establishing the extent of genetic diversity in the Asian seabass and implementing selective breeding programs for members of this species complex.

The use of climatic niches in screening procedures for introduced species to evaluate risk of spread: a case with the American Eastern grey squirrel.

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Mirko Di Febbraro

Full Text Available Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM, a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM, a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM. Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel's niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species' climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

Science.gov (United States)

Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by

Current and historical climate signatures to deconstructed tree species richness pattern in South America - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v35i2.14202

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Daniel Paiva Silva

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as determinants of current species richness pattern of forestry trees in South America. The study predicted the distribution of 217 tree species using Maxent models, and calculated the potential species richness pattern, which was further deconstructed based on range sizes and modeled against current and historical climates predictors using Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR analyses. The current climate explains more of the wide-ranging species richness patterns than that of the narrow-ranging species, while the historical climate explained an equally small amount of variance for both narrow-and-wide ranging tree species richness patterns. The richness deconstruction based on range size revealed that the influences of current and historical climate hypotheses underlying patterns in South American tree species richness differ from those found in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, the historical climate appears to be an important determinant of richness only in regions with marked climate changes and proved Pleistocenic refuges, while the current climate predicts the species richness across those Neotropical regions, with non-evident refuges in the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, this study's analyses show that these climate hypotheses are complementary to explain the South American tree species richness. Keywords: climate changes, glacial refuges, water-energy availability, GWR analysis, spatial non-stationarity

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

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Guisan Antoine

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a real absences b pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97, and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have

Response of chironomid species (Diptera, Chironomidae to water temperature: effects on species distribution in specific habitats

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L. Marziali

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The response of 443 chironomid species to water temperature was analyzed, with the aim of defining their thermal optimum, tolerance limits and thermal habitat. The database included 4442 samples mainly from Italian river catchments collected from the 1950s up to date. Thermal preferences were calculated separately for larval and pupal specimens and for different habitats: high altitude and lowland lakes in the Alpine ecoregion; lowland lakes in the Mediterranean ecoregion; heavily modified water bodies; kryal, krenal, rhithral and potamal in running waters. Optimum response was calculated as mean water temperature, weighted by species abundances; tolerance as weighted standard deviation; skewness and kurtosis as 3rd and 4th moment statistics. The responses were fitted to normal uni- or plurimodal Gaussian models. Cold stenothermal species showed: i unimodal response, ii tolerance for a narrow temperature range, iii optima closed to their minimum temperature values, iv leptokurtic response. Thermophilous species showed: i optima at different temperature values, ii wider tolerance, iii optima near their maximum temperature values, iv platikurtic response, often fitting a plurimodal model. As expected, lower optima values and narrower tolerance were obtained for kryal and krenal, than for rhithral, potamal and lakes. Thermal response curves were produced for each species and were discussed according to species distribution (i.e. altitudinal range in running water and water depth in lakes, voltinism and phylogeny. Thermal optimum and tolerance limits and the definition of the thermal habitat of species can help predicting the impact of global warming on freshwater ecosystems.

Improving N-terminal protein annotation of Plasmodium species based on signal peptide prediction of orthologous proteins

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Neto Armando

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Signal peptide is one of the most important motifs involved in protein trafficking and it ultimately influences protein function. Considering the expected functional conservation among orthologs it was hypothesized that divergence in signal peptides within orthologous groups is mainly due to N-terminal protein sequence misannotation. Thus, discrepancies in signal peptide prediction of orthologous proteins were used to identify misannotated proteins in five Plasmodium species. Methods Signal peptide (SignalP and orthology (OrthoMCL were combined in an innovative strategy to identify orthologous groups showing discrepancies in signal peptide prediction among their protein members (Mixed groups. In a comparative analysis, multiple alignments for each of these groups and gene models were visually inspected in search of misannotated proteins and, whenever possible, alternative gene models were proposed. Thresholds for signal peptide prediction parameters were also modified to reduce their impact as a possible source of discrepancy among orthologs. Validation of new gene models was based on RT-PCR (few examples or on experimental evidence already published (ApiLoc. Results The rate of misannotated proteins was significantly higher in Mixed groups than in Positive or Negative groups, corroborating the proposed hypothesis. A total of 478 proteins were reannotated and change of signal peptide prediction from negative to positive was the most common. Reannotations triggered the conversion of almost 50% of all Mixed groups, which were further reduced by optimization of signal peptide prediction parameters. Conclusions The methodological novelty proposed here combining orthology and signal peptide prediction proved to be an effective strategy for the identification of proteins showing wrongly N-terminal annotated sequences, and it might have an important impact in the available data for genome-wide searching of potential vaccine and drug

Core-satellite species hypothesis and native versus exotic species in secondary succession

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Kelsey A.; Gibson, David J.; Middleton, Beth A.

2015-01-01

A number of hypotheses exist to explain species’ distributions in a landscape, but these hypotheses are not frequently utilized to explain the differences in native and exotic species distributions. The core-satellite species (CSS) hypothesis predicts species occupancy will be bimodally distributed, i.e., many species will be common and many species will be rare, but does not explicitly consider exotic species distributions. The parallel dynamics (PD) hypothesis predicts that regional occurrence patterns of exotic species will be similar to native species. Together, the CSS and PD hypotheses may increase our understanding of exotic species’ distribution relative to natives. We selected an old field undergoing secondary succession to study the CSS and PD hypotheses in conjunction with each other. The ratio of exotic to native species (richness and abundance) was observed through 17 years of secondary succession. We predicted species would be bimodally distributed and that exotic:native species ratios would remain steady or decrease through time under frequent disturbance. In contrast to the CSS and PD hypotheses, native species occupancies were not bimodally distributed at the site, but exotic species were. The exotic:native species ratios for both richness (E:Nrichness) and abundance (E:Ncover) generally decreased or remained constant throughout supporting the PD hypothesis. Our results suggest exotic species exhibit metapopulation structure in old field landscapes, but that metapopulation structures of native species are disrupted, perhaps because these species are dispersal limited in the fragmented landscape.

A few good reasons why species-area relationships do not work for parasites.

Science.gov (United States)

Strona, Giovanni; Fattorini, Simone

2014-01-01

Several studies failed to find strong relationships between the biological and ecological features of a host and the number of parasite species it harbours. In particular, host body size and geographical range are generally only weak predictors of parasite species richness, especially when host phylogeny and sampling effort are taken into account. These results, however, have been recently challenged by a meta-analytic study that suggested a prominent role of host body size and range extent in determining parasite species richness (species-area relationships). Here we argue that, in general, results from meta-analyses should not discourage researchers from investigating the reasons for the lack of clear patterns, thus proposing a few tentative explanations to the fact that species-area relationships are infrequent or at least difficult to be detected in most host-parasite systems. The peculiar structure of host-parasite networks, the enemy release hypothesis, the possible discrepancy between host and parasite ranges, and the evolutionary tendency of parasites towards specialization may explain why the observed patterns often do not fit those predicted by species-area relationships.

Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

2015-06-01

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

OpenAIRE

Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

2017-01-01

1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

2014-01-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L

The extending of ranges of some bird species at the north-eastern border of their distribution due to intra-century climate changes

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Oleg V. Glushenkov

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an overview of the phenomenon of range expanding of birds located at the northeastern limit of their range. The study area is located in the Volga-Kama Krai in the Chuvash Republic, adjacent to the River Volga. It is situated northwards and southwards of 56° N, and westwards and eastwards of 49° E, in a band of about 400 km. The problem is considered in aspect of the intra-century changes of climatic conditions in the region and in European Russia as a whole. The analysis of the relationship between the range expansion of some bird species and the intra-century climate changes was based on ornithological and climatological material available for the study area. We have used material on climate change in the Chuvashian Republic and Volga-Kama Krai since 1926, taking into account recent data of Roshydromet and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The idea of this study was based on the theory of climatic cycles of different periodicity, the theory of recent global climate change and the hypothesis of cyclic dynamics of the ranges of waterfowl in the context of centuries-old and intra-century climate change in Northern Eurasia. In the framework of the problem, we have studied ornithological material dated from the late 19th till the early 21st century, authored by Bogdanov, Ruzsky, Zhitkov, Buturlin, Artobolevsky, Volchanetsky, Pershakov, Popov, Glushenkov and others. As shown the intra-century climate changes do quite likely affect the northward and northeastward range expansion of such bird species as Cygnus olor, Anas strepera, Aythya ferina, Hieraaetus pennatus, Aquila heliaca, and Fulica atra. Climate changes can also be judged on the base of the shift in the arrival timing to earlier dates for some birds. It is most clearly manifested for early arriving species (Grus grus, Ardea cinerea, Actitis hypoleucos. It is also true for the later arriving Pernis apivorus and Merops apiaster whose existence depends on the

Clinical Prediction Model for Time in Therapeutic Range While on Warfarin in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Brent A; Evans, Michael A; Honushefsky, Ashley M; Berger, Peter B

2017-10-12

Though warfarin has historically been the primary oral anticoagulant for stroke prevention in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), several new direct oral anticoagulants may be preferred when anticoagulation control with warfarin is expected to be poor. This study developed a prediction model for time in therapeutic range (TTR) among newly diagnosed AF patients on newly initiated warfarin as a tool to assist decision making between warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants. This electronic medical record-based, retrospective study included newly diagnosed, nonvalvular AF patients with no recent warfarin exposure receiving primary care services through a large healthcare system in rural Pennsylvania. TTR was estimated as the percentage of time international normalized ratio measurements were between 2.0 and 3.0 during the first year following warfarin initiation. Candidate predictors of TTR were chosen from data elements collected during usual clinical care. A TTR prediction model was developed and temporally validated and its predictive performance was compared with the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score (sex, age, medical history, treatment, tobacco, race) using R 2 and c-statistics. A total of 7877 newly diagnosed AF patients met study inclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) TTR within the first year of starting warfarin was 51% (32, 67). Of 85 candidate predictors evaluated, 15 were included in the final validated model with an R 2 of 15.4%. The proposed model showed better predictive performance than the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score ( R 2 =3.0%). The proposed prediction model may assist decision making on the proper mode of oral anticoagulant among newly diagnosed AF patients. However, predicting TTR on warfarin remains challenging. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

A luciferase reporter gene assay and aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 genotype predict the LD{sub 50} of polychlorinated biphenyls in avian species

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manning, Gillian E., E-mail: gmann017@uottawa.ca [Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (Canada); Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Farmahin, Reza, E-mail: mfarm070@uottawa.ca [Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (Canada); Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Crump, Doug, E-mail: doug.crump@ec.gc.ca [Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Jones, Stephanie P., E-mail: stephanie.jones@ec.gc.ca [Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Klein, Jeff, E-mail: jeffery@well-labs.com [Wellington Laboratories Inc., Research Division, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 3M5 (Canada); Konstantinov, Alex, E-mail: alex@well-labs.com [Wellington Laboratories Inc., Research Division, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 3M5 (Canada); Potter, Dave, E-mail: dpotter@well-labs.com [Wellington Laboratories Inc., Research Division, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 3M5 (Canada); Kennedy, Sean W., E-mail: sean.kennedy@ec.gc.ca [Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (Canada); Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada)

2012-09-15

Birds differ in sensitivity to the embryotoxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which complicates environmental risk assessments for these chemicals. Recent research has shown that the identities of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the avian aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 (AHR1) ligand binding domain (LBD) are primarily responsible for differences in avian species sensitivity to selected dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans. A luciferase reporter gene (LRG) assay was developed in our laboratory to measure AHR1-mediated induction of a cytochrome P450 1A5 reporter gene in COS-7 cells transfected with different avian AHR1 constructs. In the present study, the LRG assay was used to measure the concentration-dependent effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), and PCBs 126, 77, 105 and 118 on luciferase activity in COS-7 cells transfected with AHR1 constructs representative of 86 avian species in order to predict their sensitivity to PCB-induced embryolethality and the relative potency of PCBs in these species. The results of the LRG assay indicate that the identity of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the AHR1 LBD are the major determinants of avian species sensitivity to PCBs. The relative potency of PCBs did not differ greatly among AHR1 constructs. Luciferase activity was significantly correlated with embryolethality data obtained from the literature (R{sup 2} ≥ 0.87, p < 0.0001). Thus, the LRG assay in combination with the knowledge of a species' AHR1 LBD sequence can be used to predict PCB-induced embryolethality in potentially any avian species of interest without the use of lethal methods on a large number of individuals. -- Highlights: ► PCB embryolethality in birds can be predicted from a species' AHR1 genotype. ► The reporter gene assay is useful for predicting species sensitivity to PCBs. ► The relative potency of PCBs does not appear to differ between AHR1 genotypes. ► Contamination of PCB 105 and PCB 118 did not affect

How predictability of feeding patches affects home range and foraging habitat selection in avian social scavengers?

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Sophie Monsarrat

Full Text Available Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands Causses (France, a reintroduced population of Griffon vultures Gyps fulvus can find carcasses at three types of sites: 1. "light feeding stations", where farmers can drop carcasses at their farm (spatially predictable, 2. "heavy feeding stations", where carcasses from nearby farms are concentrated (spatially and temporally predictable and 3. open grasslands, where resources are randomly distributed (unpredictable. The impact of feeding stations on vulture's foraging behaviour was investigated using 28 GPS-tracked vultures. The average home range size was maximal in spring (1272 ± 752 km(2 and minimal in winter (473 ± 237 km(2 and was highly variable among individuals. Analyses of home range characteristics and feeding habitat selection via compositional analysis showed that feeding stations were always preferred compared to the rest of the habitat where vultures can find unpredictable resources. Feeding stations were particularly used when resources were scarce (summer or when flight conditions were poor (winter, limiting long-ranging movements. However, when flight conditions were optimal, home ranges also encompassed large areas of grassland where vultures could find unpredictable resources, suggesting that vultures did not lose their natural ability to forage on unpredictable resources, even when feeding stations were available. However during seasons when food abundance and flight conditions were not limited, vultures seemed to favour light over heavy feeding stations, probably because of the reduced intraspecific competition and a pattern closer to the natural dispersion of resources in the landscape. Light feeding stations are interesting tools

How predictability of feeding patches affects home range and foraging habitat selection in avian social scavengers?

Science.gov (United States)

Monsarrat, Sophie; Benhamou, Simon; Sarrazin, François; Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Bouten, Willem; Duriez, Olivier

2013-01-01

Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands Causses (France), a reintroduced population of Griffon vultures Gyps fulvus can find carcasses at three types of sites: 1. "light feeding stations", where farmers can drop carcasses at their farm (spatially predictable), 2. "heavy feeding stations", where carcasses from nearby farms are concentrated (spatially and temporally predictable) and 3. open grasslands, where resources are randomly distributed (unpredictable). The impact of feeding stations on vulture's foraging behaviour was investigated using 28 GPS-tracked vultures. The average home range size was maximal in spring (1272 ± 752 km(2)) and minimal in winter (473 ± 237 km(2)) and was highly variable among individuals. Analyses of home range characteristics and feeding habitat selection via compositional analysis showed that feeding stations were always preferred compared to the rest of the habitat where vultures can find unpredictable resources. Feeding stations were particularly used when resources were scarce (summer) or when flight conditions were poor (winter), limiting long-ranging movements. However, when flight conditions were optimal, home ranges also encompassed large areas of grassland where vultures could find unpredictable resources, suggesting that vultures did not lose their natural ability to forage on unpredictable resources, even when feeding stations were available. However during seasons when food abundance and flight conditions were not limited, vultures seemed to favour light over heavy feeding stations, probably because of the reduced intraspecific competition and a pattern closer to the natural dispersion of resources in the landscape. Light feeding stations are interesting tools for managing

Long-Range Reduced Predictive Information Transfers of Autistic Youths in EEG Sensor-Space During Face Processing.

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Khadem, Ali; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Khorrami, Anahita

2016-03-01

The majority of previous functional/effective connectivity studies conducted on the autistic patients converged to the underconnectivity theory of ASD: "long-range underconnectivity and sometimes short-rang overconnectivity". However, to the best of our knowledge the total (linear and nonlinear) predictive information transfers (PITs) of autistic patients have not been investigated yet. Also, EEG data have rarely been used for exploring the information processing deficits in autistic subjects. This study is aimed at comparing the total (linear and nonlinear) PITs of autistic and typically developing healthy youths during human face processing by using EEG data. The ERPs of 12 autistic youths and 19 age-matched healthy control (HC) subjects were recorded while they were watching upright and inverted human face images. The PITs among EEG channels were quantified using two measures separately: transfer entropy with self-prediction optimality (TESPO), and modified transfer entropy with self-prediction optimality (MTESPO). Afterwards, the directed differential connectivity graphs (dDCGs) were constructed to characterize the significant changes in the estimated PITs of autistic subjects compared with HC ones. By using both TESPO and MTESPO, long-range reduction of PITs of ASD group during face processing was revealed (particularly from frontal channels to right temporal channels). Also, it seemed the orientation of face images (upright or upside down) did not modulate the binary pattern of PIT-based dDCGs, significantly. Moreover, compared with TESPO, the results of MTESPO were more compatible with the underconnectivity theory of ASD in the sense that MTESPO showed no long-range increase in PIT. It is also noteworthy that to the best of our knowledge it is the first time that a version of MTE is applied for patients (here ASD) and it is also its first use for EEG data analysis.

Floral scent composition predicts bee pollination system in five butterfly bush (Buddleja, Scrophulariaceae) species.

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Gong, W-C; Chen, G; Vereecken, N J; Dunn, B L; Ma, Y-P; Sun, W-B

2015-01-01

Traditionally, plant-pollinator interactions have been interpreted as pollination syndrome. However, the validity of pollination syndrome has been widely doubted in modern studies of pollination ecology. The pollination ecology of five Asian Buddleja species, B. asiatica, B. crispa, B. forrestii, B. macrostachya and B. myriantha, in the Sino-Himalayan region in Asia, flowering in different local seasons, with scented inflorescences were investigated during 2011 and 2012. These five species exhibited diverse floral traits, with narrow and long corolla tubes and concealed nectar. According to their floral morphology, larger bees and Lepidoptera were expected to be the major pollinators. However, field observations showed that only larger bees (honeybee/bumblebee) were the primary pollinators, ranging from 77.95% to 97.90% of total visits. In this study, floral scents of each species were also analysed using coupled gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Although the five Buddleja species emitted differentiated floral scent compositions, our results showed that floral scents of the five species are dominated by substances that can serve as attractive signals to bees, including species-specific scent compounds and principal compounds with larger relative amounts. This suggests that floral scent compositions are closely associated with the principal pollinator assemblages in these five species. Therefore, we conclude that floral scent compositions rather than floral morphology traits should be used to interpret plant-pollinator interactions in these Asian Buddleja species. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

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Conor P. McGowan

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian

2017-01-01

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

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Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the

Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskildsen, Anne; LeRoux, Peter C.; Heikkinen, Risto K.

2013-01-01

changes at expanding range margins can be predicted accurately. Location. Finland. Methods. Using 10-km resolution butterfly atlas data from two periods, 1992–1999 (t1) and 2002–2009 (t2), with a significant between-period temperature increase, we modelled the effects of climatic warming on butterfly...... butterfly distributions under climate change. Model performance was lower with independent compared to non-independent validation and improved when land cover and soil type variables were included, compared to climate-only models. SDMs performed less well for highly mobile species and for species with long......Aim. To quantify whether species distribution models (SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional...

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

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Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

2018-01-01

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Differences in mobility at the range edge of an expanding invasive population of Xenopus laevis in the west of France.

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Louppe, Vivien; Courant, Julien; Herrel, Anthony

2017-01-15

Theoretical models predict that spatial sorting at the range edge of expanding populations should favor individuals with increased mobility relative to individuals at the center of the range. Despite the fact that empirical evidence for the evolution of locomotor performance at the range edge is rare, data on cane toads support this model. However, whether this can be generalized to other species remains largely unknown. Here, we provide data on locomotor stamina and limb morphology in individuals from two sites: one from the center and one from the periphery of an expanding population of the clawed frog Xenopus laevis in France where it was introduced about 30 years ago. Additionally, we provide data on the morphology of frogs from two additional sites to test whether the observed differences can be generalized across the range of this species in France. Given the known sexual size dimorphism in this species, we also test for differences between the sexes in locomotor performance and morphology. Our results show significant sexual dimorphism in stamina and morphology, with males having longer legs and greater stamina than females. Moreover, in accordance with the predictions from theoretical models, individuals from the range edge had a greater stamina. This difference in locomotor performance is likely to be driven by the significantly longer limb segments observed in animals in both sites sampled in different areas along the range edge. Our data have implications for conservation because spatial sorting on the range edge may lead to an accelerated increase in the spread of this invasive species in France. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.

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Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A

2017-08-01

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr -1 , than for adults, 0.13 km yr -1 . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain.

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Gálvez, Rosa; Musella, Vicenzo; Descalzo, Miguel A; Montoya, Ana; Checa, Rocío; Marino, Valentina; Martín, Oihane; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Rinaldi, Laura; Miró, Guadalupe

2017-09-19

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013-2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size. The models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) "GFDL-CM3" and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country. Predictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

Long-term species loss and homogenization of moth communities in Central Europe.

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Valtonen, Anu; Hirka, Anikó; Szőcs, Levente; Ayres, Matthew P; Roininen, Heikki; Csóka, György

2017-07-01

As global biodiversity continues to decline steeply, it is becoming increasingly important to understand diversity patterns at local and regional scales. Changes in land use and climate, nitrogen deposition and invasive species are the most important threats to global biodiversity. Because land use changes tend to benefit a few species but impede many, the expected outcome is generally decreasing population sizes, decreasing species richness at local and regional scales, and increasing similarity of species compositions across sites (biotic homogenization). Homogenization can be also driven by invasive species or effects of soil eutrophication propagating to higher trophic levels. In contrast, in the absence of increasing aridity, climate warming is predicted to generally increase abundances and species richness of poikilotherms at local and regional scales. We tested these predictions with data from one of the few existing monitoring programmes on biodiversity in the world dating to the 1960s, where the abundance of 878 species of macro-moths have been measured daily at seven sites across Hungary. Our analyses revealed a dramatic rate of regional species loss and homogenization of community compositions across sites. Species with restricted distribution range, specialized diet or dry grassland habitat were more likely than others to disappear from the community. In global context, the contrasting effects of climate change and land use changes could explain why the predicted enriching effects from climate warming are not always realized. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Assessing and comparing climatic control on distribution and reproduction of alpine and lowland species in the subalpine habitat of western Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meineri, Eric

2012-02-15

Aims and background: Species range shift is among the most well-documented responses to climate change. As a result, a growing number of studies model species climatic niches to predict how species ranges may displace in space and time (SDM studies). These studies are criticised because they do not include reproduction in their predictions. Other studies use empirical data to assess climatic control on reproductive life-stages. However, the climatic niche of reproductive life-stages may not determine the climatic niche of species, limiting the ability of both types of studies to assess the effect of climate change. In this synthesis, I compare the results of a SDM study (Paper I) with the results of two empirical studies focussing on flowering performance (Paper II) and seedling emergence (Paper III). The research focuses on the leading and rear altitudinal edges of lowland and alpine species ranges, respectively, as those are the two delimiting fronts that are expected to be specifically vulnerable to climate change. Reproduction response to climate is a complex process because it involves several sub-stages that can be affected by climate in several ways. Therefore, the results included in this synthesis integrate several direct and size-dependent climatic effects on flowering performance and report on the importance of both the climate conditions occurring at the recruitment sites and those experienced by the source populations for seedling emergence. Study area and species: This thesis makes use of the sub-alpine and alpine landscapes of western Norway to investigate climatic control on species occurrence and reproduction. This study area was chosen because it includes the leading altitudinal edge of lowland species ranges and the rear altitudinal edge of alpine species ranges. The research uses Viola biflora (alpine), Viola palustris (lowland), Veronica alpina (alpine), and Veronica officinalis (lowland) as study cases because these species are common in the

Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. J. White

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal. Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

2016-01-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of