WorldWideScience

Sample records for species range prediction

  1. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    , with predicted changes in range size by 2030 differing in both magnitude and direction (e.g. from 92% loss to 322% gain). We explain differences with reference to two characteristics of the modelling techniques: data input requirements (presence/absence vs. presence-only approaches) and assumptions made by each......, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current...... algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate...

  2. Predicting Achievable Fundamental Frequency Ranges in Vocalization Across Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo Titze

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Vocal folds are used as sound sources in various species, but it is unknown how vocal fold morphologies are optimized for different acoustic objectives. Here we identify two main variables affecting range of vocal fold vibration frequency, namely vocal fold elongation and tissue fiber stress. A simple vibrating string model is used to predict fundamental frequency ranges across species of different vocal fold sizes. While average fundamental frequency is predominantly determined by vocal fold length (larynx size, range of fundamental frequency is facilitated by (1 laryngeal muscles that control elongation and by (2 nonlinearity in tissue fiber tension. One adaptation that would increase fundamental frequency range is greater freedom in joint rotation or gliding of two cartilages (thyroid and cricoid, so that vocal fold length change is maximized. Alternatively, tissue layers can develop to bear a disproportionate fiber tension (i.e., a ligament with high density collagen fibers, increasing the fundamental frequency range and thereby vocal versatility. The range of fundamental frequency across species is thus not simply one-dimensional, but can be conceptualized as the dependent variable in a multi-dimensional morphospace. In humans, this could allow for variations that could be clinically important for voice therapy and vocal fold repair. Alternative solutions could also have importance in vocal training for singing and other highly-skilled vocalizations.

  3. Intraspecific morphological and genetic variation of common species predicts ranges of threatened ones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Trevon L.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Peralvo, Manuel; Buermann, Wolfgang; Milá, Borja; Kieswetter, Charles M.; Jarrín-V, Pablo; Devitt, Susan E. Cameron; Mason, Eliza; Schweizer, Rena M.; Schlunegger, Jasmin; Chan, Janice; Wang, Ophelia; Schneider, Christopher J.; Pollinger, John P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Graham, Catherine H.; Wayne, Robert K.; Smith, Thomas B.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible. PMID:23595273

  4. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

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    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  5. Anticipating knowledge to inform species management: predicting spatially explicit habitat suitability of a colonial vulture spreading its range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Mateo-Tomás

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The knowledge of both potential distribution and habitat suitability is fundamental in spreading species to inform in advance management and conservation planning. After a severe decline in the past decades, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus is now spreading its breeding range towards the northwest in Spain and Europe. Because of its key ecological function, anticipated spatial knowledge is required to inform appropriately both vulture and ecosystem management. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: Here we used maximum entropy (Maxent models to determine the habitat suitability of potential and current breeding distribution of the griffon vulture using presence-only data (N = 124 colonies in north-western Spain. The most relevant ecological factors shaping this habitat suitability were also identified. The resulting model had a high predictive performance and was able to predict species' historical distribution. 7.5% (approximately 1,850 km(2 of the study area resulted to be suitable breeding habitat, most of which (approximately 70% is already occupied by the species. Cliff availability and livestock density, especially of sheep and goats, around 10 km of the colonies were the fundamental factors determining breeding habitat suitability for this species. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Griffon vultures could still spread 50-60 km towards the west, increasing their breeding range in 1,782 km(2. According to our results, 7.22% of the area suitable for griffon vulture will be affected by wind farms, so our results could help to better plan wind farm locations. The approach here developed could be useful to inform management of reintroductions and recovery programmes currently being implemented for both the griffon vulture and other threatened vulture species.

  6. Anticipating knowledge to inform species management: predicting spatially explicit habitat suitability of a colonial vulture spreading its range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P

    2010-08-25

    The knowledge of both potential distribution and habitat suitability is fundamental in spreading species to inform in advance management and conservation planning. After a severe decline in the past decades, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) is now spreading its breeding range towards the northwest in Spain and Europe. Because of its key ecological function, anticipated spatial knowledge is required to inform appropriately both vulture and ecosystem management. Here we used maximum entropy (Maxent) models to determine the habitat suitability of potential and current breeding distribution of the griffon vulture using presence-only data (N = 124 colonies) in north-western Spain. The most relevant ecological factors shaping this habitat suitability were also identified. The resulting model had a high predictive performance and was able to predict species' historical distribution. 7.5% (approximately 1,850 km(2)) of the study area resulted to be suitable breeding habitat, most of which (approximately 70%) is already occupied by the species. Cliff availability and livestock density, especially of sheep and goats, around 10 km of the colonies were the fundamental factors determining breeding habitat suitability for this species. Griffon vultures could still spread 50-60 km towards the west, increasing their breeding range in 1,782 km(2). According to our results, 7.22% of the area suitable for griffon vulture will be affected by wind farms, so our results could help to better plan wind farm locations. The approach here developed could be useful to inform management of reintroductions and recovery programmes currently being implemented for both the griffon vulture and other threatened vulture species.

  7. Predicting leaf gravimetric water content from foliar reflectance across a range of plant species using continuous wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Tao; Rivard, Benoit; Sánchez-Azofeifa, Arturo G; Féret, Jean-Baptiste; Jacquemoud, Stephane; Ustin, Susan L

    2012-08-15

    Leaf water content is an important variable for understanding plant physiological properties. This study evaluates a spectral analysis approach, continuous wavelet analysis (CWA), for the spectroscopic estimation of leaf gravimetric water content (GWC, %) and determines robust spectral indicators of GWC across a wide range of plant species from different ecosystems. CWA is both applied to the Leaf Optical Properties Experiment (LOPEX) data set and a synthetic data set consisting of leaf reflectance spectra simulated using the leaf optical properties spectra (PROSPECT) model. The results for the two data sets, including wavelet feature selection and GWC prediction derived using those features, are compared to the results obtained from a previous study for leaf samples collected in the Republic of Panamá (PANAMA), to assess the predictive capabilities and robustness of CWA across species. Furthermore, predictive models of GWC using wavelet features derived from PROSPECT simulations are examined to assess their applicability to measured data. The two measured data sets (LOPEX and PANAMA) reveal five common wavelet feature regions that correlate well with leaf GWC. All three data sets display common wavelet features in three wavelength regions that span 1732-1736 nm at scale 4, 1874-1878 nm at scale 6, and 1338-1341 nm at scale 7 and produce accurate estimates of leaf GWC. This confirms the applicability of the wavelet-based methodology for estimating leaf GWC for leaves representative of various ecosystems. The PROSPECT-derived predictive models perform well on the LOPEX data set but are less successful on the PANAMA data set. The selection of high-scale and low-scale features emphasizes significant changes in both overall amplitude over broad spectral regions and local spectral shape over narrower regions in response to changes in leaf GWC. The wavelet-based spectral analysis tool adds a new dimension to the modeling of plant physiological properties with

  8. Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

    OpenAIRE

    Duscher Tanja; Nopp-Mayr Ursula

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known...

  9. Anticipating Knowledge to Inform Species Management: Predicting Spatially Explicit Habitat Suitability of a Colonial Vulture Spreading Its Range

    OpenAIRE

    Mateo-Tom?s, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The knowledge of both potential distribution and habitat suitability is fundamental in spreading species to inform in advance management and conservation planning. After a severe decline in the past decades, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) is now spreading its breeding range towards the northwest in Spain and Europe. Because of its key ecological function, anticipated spatial knowledge is required to inform appropriately both vulture and ecosystem management. METHODOLOGY/FINDING...

  10. Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duscher Tanja

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known to occur in Austria since 1963 and is now widespread in the northern and eastern parts of the country, but its population density remains low. With the help of a species distribution model we identified focal areas for future monitoring and management actions, and we address some management implications for the raccoon dog in Austria. We also determined the environmental predictors of raccoon dog distribution in this alpine country. Its distribution seems to be mainly limited by climatic factors (snow depth, duration of snow cover, winter precipitation and mean annual temperature and is thus linked to elevation. Consequently, we assumed the Alps to be a barrier for the spread of the invasive raccoon dog in Europe; however, its ecological permeability is expected to increase with ongoing climate change.

  11. Illuminating geographical patterns in species' range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenouillet, Gaël; Comte, Lise

    2014-10-01

    Species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change have been widely documented, but although complex spatial patterns in species' responses are expected to be common, comprehensive comparisons of species' ranges over time have undergone little investigation. Here, we outline a modeling framework based on historical and current species distribution records for disentangling different drivers (i.e. climatic vs. nonclimatic) and assessing distinct facets (i.e. colonization, extirpation, persistence, and lags) of species' range shifts. We used extensive monitoring data for stream fish assemblages throughout France to assess range shifts for 32 fish species between an initial period (1980-1992) and a contemporary one (2003-2009). Our results provide strong evidence that the responses of individual species varied considerably and exhibited complex mosaics of spatial rearrangements. By dissociating range shifts in climatically suitable and unsuitable habitats, we demonstrated that patterns in climate-driven colonization and extirpation were less marked than those attributed to nonclimatic drivers, although this situation could rapidly shift in the near future. We also found evidence that range shifts could be related to some species' traits and that the traits involved varied depending on the facet of range shift considered. The persistence of populations in climatically unsuitable areas was greater for short-lived species, whereas the extent of the lag behind climate change was greater for long-lived, restricted-range, and low-elevation species. We further demonstrated that nonclimatic extirpations were primarily related to the size of the species' range, whereas climate-driven extirpations were better explained by thermal tolerance. Thus, the proposed framework demonstrated its potential for markedly improving our understanding of the key processes involved in range shifting and also offers a template for informing management decisions. Conservation strategies

  12. Modelling the effect of climate change on species ranges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagelkerke, C.J.; Alkemade, J.R.M.

    2003-01-01

    Three main types of models can be used to understand and predict climate-related range shifts. Equilibrium models predict potential future distributions from the current climate envelope of a species, but do not take migration constraints into account. They show that future range changes can be

  13. Climate change-driven species' range shifts filtered by photoperiodism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikkonen, Kari; Taulavuori, Kari; Hyvönen, Terho; Gundel, Pedro E.; Hamilton, Cyd E.; Vänninen, Irene; Nissinen, Anne; Helander, Marjo

    2012-04-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts as a result of climate change are essential, because invasions by exotic species shape biodiversity and therefore ecosystem functions and services. Ecologists have focused on propagule pressure (for example, the number of individuals and invasion events), the characteristics of an invading species, and its new abiotic and biotic environment to predict the likelihood of range expansion and invasion. Here, we emphasize the role of photoperiodic response on the range expansion of species. Unlike temperature, the latitudinal gradient of seasonal changes in day length is a stable, abiotic environmental factor that does not change with local or global climate. Predicting range expansions across latitudes and the subsequent consequences for native communities requires a more comprehensive understanding of how species use day length to coordinate seasonal growth, reproduction, physiology and synchronization of life cycles with interacting individuals and species.

  14. Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hammill, Edd; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

    2015-06-01

    Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation

  15. Historical Biogeography Using Species Geographical Ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Ignacio; Keil, Petr; Jetz, Walter; Crawford, Forrest W

    2015-11-01

    Spatial variation in biodiversity is the result of complex interactions between evolutionary history and ecological factors. Methods in historical biogeography combine phylogenetic information with current species locations to infer the evolutionary history of a clade through space and time. A major limitation of most methods for historical biogeographic inference is the requirement of single locations for terminal lineages, reducing contemporary species geographical ranges to a point in two-dimensional space. In reality, geographic ranges usually show complex geographic patterns, irregular shapes, or discontinuities. In this article, we describe a method for phylogeographic analysis using polygonal species geographic ranges of arbitrary complexity. By integrating the geographic diversification process across species ranges, we provide a method to infer the geographic location of ancestors in a Bayesian framework. By modeling migration conditioned on a phylogenetic tree, this approach permits reconstructing the geographic location of ancestors through time. We apply this new method to the diversification of two neotropical bird genera, Trumpeters (Psophia) and Cinclodes ovenbirds. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method (called rase) in phylogeographic reconstruction of species ancestral locations and contrast our results with previous methods that compel researchers to reduce the distribution of species to one point in space. We discuss model extensions to enable a more general, spatially explicit framework for historical biogeographic analysis. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  17. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

    2016-08-01

    Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

  18. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida: models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Langer

    Full Text Available Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  19. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  20. Climate change, aboveground-belowground interactions, and species range shifts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Putten, van der W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species' range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In

  1. U.S. Geological Survey Gap Analysis Program Species Ranges

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — GAP species range data show a coarse representation of the total areal extent of a species or the geographic limits within which a species can be found (Morrison and...

  2. Geographical range and local abundance of tree species in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibao Ren

    Full Text Available Most studies on the geographical distribution of species have utilized a few well-known taxa in Europe and North America, with little research in China and its wide range of climate and forest types. We assembled large datasets to quantify the geographic ranges of tree species in China and to test several biogeographic hypotheses: 1 whether locally abundant species tend to be geographically widespread; 2 whether species are more abundant towards their range-centers; and 3 how abundances are correlated between sites. Local abundances of 651 species were derived from four tree plots of 20-25 ha where all individuals ≥1 cm in stem diameter were mapped and identified taxonomically. Range sizes of these species across China were then estimated from over 460,000 geo-referenced records; a Bayesian approach was used, allowing careful measures of error of each range estimate. The log-transformed range sizes had a bell-shaped distribution with a median of 703,000 km(2, and >90% of 651 species had ranges >10(5 km(2. There was no relationship between local abundance and range size, and no evidence for species being more abundant towards their range-centers. Finally, species' abundances were positively correlated between sites. The widespread nature of most tree species in China suggests few are vulnerable to global extinction, and there is no indication of the double-peril that would result if rare species also had narrow ranges.

  3. Geographic range size and determinants of avian species richness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jetz, Walter; Rahbek, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    Geographic patterns in species richness are mainly based on wide-ranging species because their larger number of distribution records has a disproportionate contribution to the species richness counts. Here we demonstrate how this effect strongly influences our understanding of what determines...... species richness. Using both conventional and spatial regression models, we show that for sub-Saharan African birds, the apparent role of productivity diminishes with decreasing range size, whereas the significance of topographic heterogeneity increases. The relative importance of geometric constraints...... from the continental edge is moderate. Our findings highlight the failure of traditional species richness models to account for narrow-ranging species that frequently are also threatened....

  4. Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hammill, Edd; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation

  5. Determinants of host species range in plant viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moury, Benoît; Fabre, Frédéric; Hébrard, Eugénie; Froissart, Rémy

    2017-04-01

    Prediction of pathogen emergence is an important field of research, both in human health and in agronomy. Most studies of pathogen emergence have focused on the ecological or anthropic factors involved rather than on the role of intrinsic pathogen properties. The capacity of pathogens to infect a large set of host species, i.e. to possess a large host range breadth (HRB), is tightly linked to their emergence propensity. Using an extensive plant virus database, we found that four traits related to virus genome or transmission properties were strongly and robustly linked to virus HRB. Broader host ranges were observed for viruses with single-stranded genomes, those with three genome segments and nematode-transmitted viruses. Also, two contrasted groups of seed-transmitted viruses were evidenced. Those with a single-stranded genome had larger HRB than non-seed-transmitted viruses, whereas those with a double-stranded genome (almost exclusively RNA) had an extremely small HRB. From the plant side, the family taxonomic rank appeared as a critical threshold for virus host range, with a highly significant increase in barriers to infection between plant families. Accordingly, the plant-virus infectivity matrix shows a dual structure pattern: a modular pattern mainly due to viruses specialized to infect plants of a given family and a nested pattern due to generalist viruses. These results contribute to a better prediction of virus host jumps and emergence risks.

  6. Demographic Responses To Climate Manipulations Across a Species Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfather, M. F.

    2016-12-01

    Species biogeographic responses to climate change will occur through the local extinction and establishment of populations. The overall performance of populations across a species range is shaped by the idiosyncratic sensitivities of demographic rates to the changing climate conditions. Heterogeneous topography partially decouples temperature and soil moisture presenting an opportunity to disentangle demographic sensitivity to multiple local climate variables and refine range shift predictions in response to complex climate change. Since 2013, I have monitored 16 populations of a long-lived alpine plant, Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis (Rosaceae) across the entirety of its altitudinal range in the arid White Mountains, CA (3350 - 4420m). I quantified microclimatic soil moisture and temperature, and the demographic rates of over 4,000 individuals. Demographic rates exhibited sensitivity to accumulated degree-days (ex. reproduction), soil volumetric water content (ex. germination), or the interaction between these climate variables (ex. survival). These observations motivated an experimental test of the relationship between demography and local climate with manipulations of increased summertime temperature and precipitation in nine populations. All demographic rates were sensitive to the climate manipulations and the magnitude of the demographic response depended on the population's location within the range. However, the modeled population growth rate was only minimally affected by the manipulations in most populations. The inverse responses of many of the demographic rates may allow populations to demographically buffer against the climate manipulations. However, in one low elevation edge population the negative effect of heating on survival overwhelmed the positive effect on germination, indicating that the capacity of populations to demographically buffer may have a limit.

  7. Geographical patterns of adaptation within a species' range : Interactions between drift and gene flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alleaume-Benharira, M; Pen, IR; Ronce, O

    We use individual-based stochastic simulations and analytical deterministic predictions to investigate the interaction between drift, natural selection and gene flow on the patterns of local adaptation across a fragmented species' range under clinally varying selection. Migration between populations

  8. Does climate limit species richness by limiting individual species’ ranges?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher-Lalonde, Véronique; Kerr, Jeremy T.; Currie, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Broad-scale geographical variation in species richness is strongly correlated with climate, yet the mechanisms underlying this correlation are still unclear. We test two broad classes of hypotheses to explain this pattern. Bottom-up hypotheses propose that the environment determines individual species’ ranges. Ranges then sum up to yield species richness patterns. Top-down hypotheses propose that the environment limits the number of species that occur in a region, but not which ones. We test these two classes of hypotheses using a natural experiment: seasonal changes in environmental variables and seasonal range shifts of 625 migratory birds in the Americas. We show that richness seasonally tracks the environment. By contrast, individual species’ geographical distributions do not. Rather, species occupy different sets of environmental conditions in two seasons. Our results are inconsistent with extant bottom-up hypotheses. Instead, a top-down mechanism appears to constrain the number of species that can occur in a given region. PMID:24352946

  9. Salinity ranges of some southern African fish species occurring in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The recorded salinity ranges of 96 fish species occurring in southern African estuaries are documented. Factors influen- cing the tolerance of fishes to low and high salinity regimes are discussed, with most species tolerant of low rather than high salinity conditions. This is important since most systems are subject to periodic ...

  10. Aligning marine species range data to better serve science and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Casey C; Afflerbach, Jamie C; Scarborough, Courtney; Kaschner, Kristin; Halpern, Benjamin S

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution data provide the foundation for a wide range of ecological research studies and conservation management decisions. Two major efforts to provide marine species distributions at a global scale are the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which provides expert-generated range maps that outline the complete extent of a species' distribution; and AquaMaps, which provides model-generated species distribution maps that predict areas occupied by the species. Together these databases represent 24,586 species (93.1% within AquaMaps, 16.4% within IUCN), with only 2,330 shared species. Differences in intent and methodology can result in very different predictions of species distributions, which bear important implications for scientists and decision makers who rely upon these datasets when conducting research or informing conservation policy and management actions. Comparing distributions for the small subset of species with maps in both datasets, we found that AquaMaps and IUCN range maps show strong agreement for many well-studied species, but our analysis highlights several key examples in which introduced errors drive differences in predicted species ranges. In particular, we find that IUCN maps greatly overpredict coral presence into unsuitably deep waters, and we show that some AquaMaps computer-generated default maps (only 5.7% of which have been reviewed by experts) can produce odd discontinuities at the extremes of a species' predicted range. We illustrate the scientific and management implications of these tradeoffs by repeating a global analysis of gaps in coverage of marine protected areas, and find significantly different results depending on how the two datasets are used. By highlighting tradeoffs between the two datasets, we hope to encourage increased collaboration between taxa experts and large scale species distribution modeling efforts to further improve these foundational datasets, helping to better inform science and

  11. Towards Process-based Range Modeling of Many Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Margaret E K; Merow, Cory; Record, Sydne; McMahon, Sean M; Enquist, Brian J

    2016-11-01

    Understanding and forecasting species' geographic distributions in the face of global change is a central priority in biodiversity science. The existing view is that one must choose between correlative models for many species versus process-based models for few species. We suggest that opportunities exist to produce process-based range models for many species, by using hierarchical and inverse modeling to borrow strength across species, fill data gaps, fuse diverse data sets, and model across biological and spatial scales. We review the statistical ecology and population and range modeling literature, illustrating these modeling strategies in action. A variety of large, coordinated ecological datasets that can feed into these modeling solutions already exist, and we highlight organisms that seem ripe for the challenge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting species distribution combining multi-scale drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Fournier

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Species Distribution Models (SDMs are often used to predict the potential range of invasive species. Unfortunately, most studies do not evaluate variables relevance before selecting them to fit their models. Moreover, multiple variables such as climate and land use may drive species distribution at different spatial scales but most studies either use a single type of drivers, or combine multiple types without respecting their operating scale. We propose a three steps framework to overcome this limitation. First, use SDMs to select the most relevant climatic variables to predict a given species distribution, at continental scale. Then, characterize the species-habitat relationships, at a local scale, to produce species and area specific habitat filters. Finally, combine both information, each obtained at a relevant scale, to refine climatic predictions according to habitat suitability. We illustrate this framework with 14,794 Asian hornet (Vespa velutina nigrithorax records. We show that integrating multiple drivers, while still respecting their scale of effect, produced a potential range 55.9% smaller than that predicted using the climatic model alone, suggesting a systematic overestimation in many published predictions. This general framework illustrated by a well-documented invasive species is applicable to other taxa and scenarios of future climate and land-cover changes.

  13. Investigating origin of the inadequate medium range predictability of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    dicting the ultra-long waves in numerical weather prediction particularly in the first few days of the forecast period (Baumhefner et al 1978; Lambert and Merilees 1978). The predictability of ultra-long waves has been a cause of major concern for the medium range weather prediction community for quite some time.

  14. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-04-29

    Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has

  15. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naia Morueta-Holme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus, which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be

  16. Predicting leaf traits of herbaceous species from their spectral characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelofsen, Hans D; van Bodegom, Peter M; Kooistra, Lammert; Witte, Jan-Philip M

    2014-01-01

    Trait predictions from leaf spectral properties are mainly applied to tree species, while herbaceous systems received little attention in this topic. Whether similar trait–spectrum relations can be derived for herbaceous plants that differ strongly in growing strategy and environmental constraints is therefore unknown. We used partial least squares regression to relate key traits to leaf spectra (reflectance, transmittance, and absorbance) for 35 herbaceous species, sampled from a wide range of environmental conditions. Specific Leaf Area and nutrient-related traits (N and P content) were poorly predicted from any spectrum, although N prediction improved when expressed on a per area basis (mg/m2 leaf surface) instead of mass basis (mg/g dry matter). Leaf dry matter content was moderately to good correlated with spectra. We explain our results by the range of environmental constraints encountered by herbaceous species; both N and P limitations as well as a range of light and water availabilities occurred. This weakened the relation between the measured response traits and the leaf constituents that are truly responsible for leaf spectral behavior. Indeed, N predictions improve considering solely upper or under canopy species. Therefore, trait predictions in herbaceous systems should focus on traits relating to dry matter content and the true, underlying drivers of spectral properties. PMID:24683454

  17. Species' Traits as Predictors of Range Shifts Under Contemporary Climate Change: A Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLean, S. A.; Beissinger, S. R.

    2016-12-01

    A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. If trait-based arguments, hold, then traits would provide valuable evidence-based tools for conservation and management that could increase the accuracy of future range projections, vulnerability assessments, and predictions of novel community assemblages. However, empirical support is limited in extent and consensus, and trait-based relationships remain largely unvalidated. We conducted a comprehensive literature review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from over 11,000 species' responses across multiple taxa from studies that directly compared 20th century and contemporary distributions for multispecies assemblages. We then performed a meta-analysis to calculate the mean study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit, while directly controlling for ecological and methodological heterogeneity across studies that could bias reported effect sizes. We show that ecological and life history traits have had limited success in accounting for variation among species in range shifts over the past century. Of the five traits analyzed, only habitat breadth and historic range limit consistently supported range shift predictions across multiple studies. Fecundity, body size, and diet breadth showed no clear relationship with range shifts, and some traits identified in our literature review (e.g. migratory ecology) have consistently contradicted range shift predictions. Current understanding of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed before traits can be reliably incorporated into projections of climate change impacts.

  18. Seasonality and predictability shape temporal species diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkin, Jonathan D; Bogan, Michael T; Bonada, Núria; Rios-Touma, Blanca; Lytle, David A

    2017-05-01

    Temporal environmental fluctuations, such as seasonality, exert strong controls on biodiversity. While the effects of seasonality are well known, the predictability of fluctuations across years may influence seasonality in ways that are less well understood. The ability of a habitat to support unique, non-nested assemblages of species at different times of the year should depend on both seasonality (occurrence of events at specific periods of the year) and predictability (the reliability of event recurrence) of characteristic ecological conditions. Drawing on tools from wavelet analysis and information theory, we developed a framework for quantifying both seasonality and predictability of habitats, and applied this using global long-term rainfall data. Our analysis predicted that temporal beta diversity should be maximized in highly predictable and highly seasonal climates, and that low degrees of seasonality, predictability, or both would lower diversity in characteristic ways. Using stream invertebrate communities as a case study, we demonstrated that temporal species diversity, as exhibited by community turnover, was determined by a balance between temporal environmental variability (seasonality) and the reliability of this variability (predictability). Communities in highly seasonal mediterranean environments exhibited strong oscillations in community structure, with turnover from one unique community type to another across seasons, whereas communities in aseasonal New Zealand environments fluctuated randomly. Understanding the influence of seasonal and other temporal scales of environmental oscillations on diversity is not complete without a clear understanding of their predictability, and our framework provides tools for examining these trends at a variety of temporal scales, seasonal and beyond. Given the uncertainty of future climates, seasonality and predictability are critical considerations for both basic science and management of ecosystems (e.g., dam

  19. Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

    2006-01-01

    Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

  20. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) assisted migration potential: testing establishment north of the species range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLane, Sierra C; Aitken, Sally N

    2012-01-01

    The translocation of species into habitable locations outside of their current ranges, termed assisted migration, has been proposed as a means of saving vulnerable species from extinction as a result of climate change. We explore the use of this controversial technique using a threatened keystone species in western North America, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), as a case study. Species distribution models predict that whitebark pine will be extirpated from most of its current range as temperatures rise over the next 70 years. However, the same models indicate that a large area within northwestern British Columbia, Canada, is climatically suitable for the species under current conditions and will remain so throughout the 21st century. To test the capacity of whitebark pine to establish relative to climatic and habitat features within its predicted climatic range, we planted seeds from seven populations in eight locations spanning from 600 km southeast to 800 km northwest of the northern boundary of the current species range. During the first three growing seasons, germination occurred in all locations. Nearly three times as many treated (induced maturation and broken dormancy) than untreated seeds germinated, and most treated seeds germinated a year earlier than the untreated seeds. Germination, survival, and growth were primarily influenced by seed mass, site climate conditions related to the duration of snow cover, and provenance temperature. Our experiment provides a preliminary test of models predicting the existence of climatically suitable whitebark pine habitat north of the current species ranges. More broadly, our techniques and results inform the development of scientific guidelines for assisting the migration of other species that are highly threatened by climate change. Applied case studies of this kind are critical for assessing the utility of species distribution models as conservation planning tools.

  1. Investigating origin of the inadequate medium range predictability of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The predictability of planetary or ultra-long scale waves is limited by the large growth of errors in these scales in almost all the medium range forecast models. Understanding the cause for the enormous build up of error is, therefore, a necessary task for improving the prediction of planetary waves. A diagnostic analysis of ...

  2. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using ...

  3. Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conservation of a molecular target across species can be used as a line-of-evidence to predict the likelihood of chemical susceptibility. The web-based Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool was developed to simplify, streamline, and quantitatively assess protein sequence/structural similarity across taxonomic groups as a means to predict relative intrinsic susceptibility. The intent of the tool is to allow for evaluation of any potential protein target, so it is amenable to variable degrees of protein characterization, depending on available information about the chemical/protein interaction and the molecular target itself. To allow for flexibility in the analysis, a layered strategy was adopted for the tool. The first level of the SeqAPASS analysis compares primary amino acid sequences to a query sequence, calculating a metric for sequence similarity (including detection of candidate orthologs), the second level evaluates sequence similarity within selected domains (e.g., ligand-binding domain, DNA binding domain), and the third level of analysis compares individual amino acid residue positions identified as being of importance for protein conformation and/or ligand binding upon chemical perturbation. Each level of the SeqAPASS analysis provides increasing evidence to apply toward rapid, screening-level assessments of probable cross species susceptibility. Such analyses can support prioritization of chemicals for further ev

  4. On-line battery identification for electric driving range prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessels, J.T.B.A.; Rosca, B.; Bergveld, H.J.; Bosch, P.P.J. van den

    2011-01-01

    Hybrid and electric vehicles require accurate knowledge of the battery to make an educated guess about the expected electric driving range. Range prediction is complicated by the fact that batteries are subject to external influences and aging. Also the future driving behavior is often unknown. This

  5. Quantifying species' range shifts in relation to climate change: a case study of Abies spp. in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Kou

    Full Text Available Predicting species range shifts in response to climatic change is a central aspect of global change studies. An ever growing number of species have been modeled using a variety of species distribution models (SDMs. However, quantitative studies of the characteristics of range shifts are rare, predictions of range changes are hard to interpret, analyze and summarize, and comparisons between the various models are difficult to make when the number of species modeled is large. Maxent was used to model the distribution of 12 Abies spp. in China under current and possible future climate conditions. Two fuzzy set defined indices, range increment index (I and range overlapping index (O, were used to quantify range shifts of the chosen species. Correlation analyses were used to test the relationships between these indices and species distribution characteristics. Our results show that Abies spp. range increments (I were highly correlated with longitude, latitude, and mean roughness of their current distributions. Species overlapping (O was moderately, or not, correlated with these parameters. Neither range increments nor overlapping showed any correlation with species prevalence. These fuzzy sets defined indices provide ideal measures of species range shifts because they are stable and threshold-free. They are reliable indices that allow large numbers of species to be described, modeled, and compared on a variety of taxonomic levels.

  6. Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

  7. When species' ranges meet: assessing differences in habitat selection between sympatric large carnivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauset, Geir Rune; Mattisson, Jenny; Andrén, Henrik; Chapron, Guillaume; Persson, Jens

    2013-07-01

    Differentiation in habitat selection among sympatric species may depend on niche partitioning, species interactions, selection mechanisms and scales considered. In a mountainous area in Sweden, we explored hierarchical habitat selection in Global Positioning System-collared individuals of two sympatric large carnivore species; an obligate predator, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and a generalist predator and scavenger, the wolverine (Gulo gulo). Although the species' fundamental niches differ widely, their ranges overlap in this area where they share a prey base and main cause of mortality. Both lynx and wolverines selected for steep and rugged terrain in mountainous birch forest and in heaths independent of scale and available habitats. However, the selection of lynx for their preferred habitats was stronger when they were forming home ranges and they selected the same habitats within their home ranges independent of home range composition. Wolverines displayed a greater variability when selecting home ranges and habitat selection also varied with home range composition. Both species selected for habitats that promote survival through limited encounters with humans, but which also are rich in prey, and selection for these habitats was accordingly stronger in winter when human activity was high and prey density was low. We suggest that the observed differences between the species result primarily from different foraging strategies, but may also depend on differences in ranging and resting behaviour, home range size, and relative density of each species. Our results support the prediction that sympatric carnivores with otherwise diverging niches can select for the same resources when sharing main sources of food and mortality.

  8. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 116; Issue 1. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon ... In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on ...

  9. Predicting the global spread range via small subnetworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiachen; Dong, Junyou; Ma, Xiao; Feng, Ling; Hu, Yanqing

    2017-04-01

    Modern online social network platforms are replacing traditional media due to their effectiveness in both spreading information and communicating opinions. One of the key problems in these online platforms is to predict the global spread range of any given information. Due to its gigantic size as well as time-varying dynamics, an online social network's global structure, however, is usually inaccessible to most researchers. Thus, it raises the very important issue of how to use solely small subnetworks to predict the global influence. In this paper, based on percolation theory, we show that the global spread range can be predicted well from only two small subnetworks. We test our methods in an artificial network and three empirical online social networks, such as the full Sina Weibo network with 99546027 nodes.

  10. Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Parker, John D; Cook-Patton, Susan C; Feller, Ilka C; Williams, A Park; Kellner, James R

    2015-05-01

    Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr(-1) over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Natural selection constrains neutral diversity across a wide range of species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett-Detig, Russell B; Hartl, Daniel L; Sackton, Timothy B

    2015-04-01

    The neutral theory of molecular evolution predicts that the amount of neutral polymorphisms within a species will increase proportionally with the census population size (Nc). However, this prediction has not been borne out in practice: while the range of Nc spans many orders of magnitude, levels of genetic diversity within species fall in a comparatively narrow range. Although theoretical arguments have invoked the increased efficacy of natural selection in larger populations to explain this discrepancy, few direct empirical tests of this hypothesis have been conducted. In this work, we provide a direct test of this hypothesis using population genomic data from a wide range of taxonomically diverse species. To do this, we relied on the fact that the impact of natural selection on linked neutral diversity depends on the local recombinational environment. In regions of relatively low recombination, selected variants affect more neutral sites through linkage, and the resulting correlation between recombination and polymorphism allows a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of the impact of selection on linked neutral diversity. By comparing whole genome polymorphism data and genetic maps using a coalescent modeling framework, we estimate the degree to which natural selection reduces linked neutral diversity for 40 species of obligately sexual eukaryotes. We then show that the magnitude of the impact of natural selection is positively correlated with Nc, based on body size and species range as proxies for census population size. These results demonstrate that natural selection removes more variation at linked neutral sites in species with large Nc than those with small Nc and provides direct empirical evidence that natural selection constrains levels of neutral genetic diversity across many species. This implies that natural selection may provide an explanation for this longstanding paradox of population genetics.

  12. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  13. Phenology predicts the native and invasive range limits of common ragweed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Daniel S; Haynes, Tom; Beal, Stephen; Essl, Franz; Bullock, James M

    2014-01-01

    Accurate models for species' distributions are needed to forecast the progress and impacts of alien invasive species and assess potential range-shifting driven by global change. Although this has traditionally been achieved through data-driven correlative modelling, robustly extrapolating these models into novel climatic conditions is challenging. Recently, a small number of process-based or mechanistic distribution models have been developed to complement the correlative approaches. However, tests of these models are lacking, and there are very few process-based models for invasive species. We develop a method for estimating the range of a globally invasive species, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), from a temperature- and photoperiod-driven phenology model. The model predicts the region in which ragweed can reach reproductive maturity before frost kills the adult plants in autumn. This aligns well with the poleward and high-elevation range limits in its native North America and in invaded Europe, clearly showing that phenological constraints determine the cold range margins of the species. Importantly, this is a 'forward' prediction made entirely independently of the distribution data. Therefore, it allows a confident and biologically informed forecasting of further invasion and range shifting driven by climate change. For ragweed, such forecasts are extremely important as the species is a serious crop weed and its airborne pollen is a major cause of allergy and asthma in humans. Our results show that phenology can be a key determinant of species' range margins, so integrating phenology into species distribution models offers great potential for the mechanistic modelling of range dynamics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Progress and Challenges in Short to Medium Range Coupled Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brassington, G. B.; Martin, M. J.; Tolman, H. L.; Akella, Santha; Balmeseda, M.; Chambers, C. R. S.; Cummings, J. A.; Drillet, Y.; Jansen, P. A. E. M.; Laloyaux, P.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The availability of GODAE Oceanview-type ocean forecast systems provides the opportunity to develop high-resolution, short- to medium-range coupled prediction systems. Several groups have undertaken the first experiments based on relatively unsophisticated approaches. Progress is being driven at the institutional level targeting a range of applications that represent their respective national interests with clear overlaps and opportunities for information exchange and collaboration. These include general circulation, hurricanes, extra-tropical storms, high-latitude weather and sea-ice forecasting as well as coastal air-sea interaction. In some cases, research has moved beyond case and sensitivity studies to controlled experiments to obtain statistically significant metrics.

  15. Range-Space Predictive Control for Optimal Robot Motion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, Květoslav; Böhm, Josef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2008), s. 1-7 ISSN 1998-0140 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP102/06/P275 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Accurate manipulation * Industrial robot ics * Predictive control * Range-space control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/historie/belda-0305644.pdf

  16. Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terribile, Levi Carina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2012-01-01

    uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles......Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce...... hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single...

  17. Predicting species’ range limits from functional traits for the tree flora of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Ulrike; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Using functional traits to explain species’ range limits is a promising approach in functional biogeography. It replaces the idiosyncrasy of species-specific climate ranges with a generic trait-based predictive framework. In addition, it has the potential to shed light on specific filter mechanisms creating large-scale vegetation patterns. However, its application to a continental flora, spanning large climate gradients, has been hampered by a lack of trait data. Here, we explore whether five key plant functional traits (seed mass, wood density, specific leaf area (SLA), maximum height, and longevity of a tree)—indicative of life history, mechanical, and physiological adaptations—explain the climate ranges of 250 North American tree species distributed from the boreal to the subtropics. Although the relationship between traits and the median climate across a species range is weak, quantile regressions revealed strong effects on range limits. Wood density and seed mass were strongly related to the lower but not upper temperature range limits of species. Maximum height affects the species range limits in both dry and humid climates, whereas SLA and longevity do not show clear relationships. These results allow the definition and delineation of climatic “no-go areas” for North American tree species based on key traits. As some of these key traits serve as important parameters in recent vegetation models, the implementation of trait-based climatic constraints has the potential to predict both range shifts and ecosystem consequences on a more functional basis. Moreover, for future trait-based vegetation models our results provide a benchmark for model evaluation. PMID:25225398

  18. Unequal Contribution of Widespread and Narrow-Ranged Species to Botanical Diversity Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Proosdij, André S J; Raes, Niels; Wieringa, Jan J; Sosef, Marc S M

    2016-01-01

    In conservation studies, solely widespread species are often used as indicators of diversity patterns, but narrow-ranged species can show different patterns. Here, we assess how well subsets of narrow-ranged, widespread or randomly selected plant species represent patterns of species richness and weighted endemism in Gabon, tropical Africa. Specifically, we assess the effect of using different definitions of widespread and narrow-ranged and of the information content of the subsets. Finally, we test if narrow-ranged species are overrepresented in species-rich areas. Based on distribution models of Gabonese plant species, we defined sequential subsets from narrow-ranged-to-widespread, widespread-to-narrow-ranged, and 100 randomly arranged species sequences using the range sizes of species in tropical Africa and within Gabon. Along these sequences, correlations between subsets and the total species richness and total weighted endemism patterns were computed. Random species subsets best represent the total species richness pattern, whereas subsets of narrow-ranged species best represent the total weighted endemism pattern. For species ordered according to their range sizes in tropical Africa, subsets of narrow-ranged species represented the total species richness pattern better than widespread species subsets did. However, the opposite was true when range sizes were truncated by the Gabonese national country borders. Correcting for the information content of the subset results in a skew of the sequential correlations, its direction depending on the range-size frequency distribution. Finally, we find a strong, positive, non-linear relation between weighted endemism and total species richness. Observed differences in the contribution of narrow-ranged, widespread and randomly selected species to species richness and weighted endemism patterns can be explained by the range-size frequency distribution and the use of different definitions of widespread or narrow-ranged. We

  19. Potential climate change favored expansion of a range limited species, Haematostaphis barteri Hook f.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Koundouonon Moutouama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding impact of climate change on range breadth of rare species can improve the ability to anticipate their decline or expension and take appropriate conservation measures. Haematatostaphis barteri is an agroforestry species of the Sudanian centre of endemism in Africa. We investigeted impact of climate change on range of suitable habitats for this species in Benin,using the Maximum Entropy algorithm under R software. Five environmental variables were used with the regional climate model under the new Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP. Moisture Index of the Moist Quarter and Slope variability had the greatest predictive importance for the range of suitable habitats for H. barteri. Its Potential breadth was found to be currently limited to the Atacora Mountain Chain (AMC and covers 0.51% of national territory. Climate change was projected to favor expansion of suitable habitats for H. barteri by 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These habitats were however mostly out of the local protected areas network. Climate change would extend range of habitats for H. barteri. Observed protection gaps suggest need for integrating this species into formal in situ, on-farm or ex situ conservation schemes.

  20. Climate change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and its importance for patterns of species richness and range size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Arge, Lars Allan; Svenning, J.-C.

    these predictions using global data on mammal and amphibian distributions. Consistent with our predictions, richness of small-ranged species of both groups was negatively associated with velocity. Velocity generally explained more variation in richness than did the simple climate anomaly. Climate velocity appears...... to capture an important historical signal on current mammal and amphibian distributions....

  1. Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

    2017-05-01

    In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

  2. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Frédéric Jiguet; Vincent Devictor; Richard Ottvall; Chris Van Turnhout; Henk Van der Jeugd; Åke Lindström

    2010-01-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear...

  3. Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ayllón

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta living along a temperature gradient at the warmest thermal edge of its range. We developed a carrying capacity model in which maximum population size is limited by physical habitat conditions and regulated through territoriality. We first tested whether population numbers were driven by carrying capacity dynamics and then targeted on establishing (1 the temperature thresholds beyond which population numbers switch from being physical habitat- to temperature-limited; and (2 the rate at which carrying capacity declines with temperature within limiting thermal ranges. Carrying capacity along with emergent density-dependent responses explained up to 76% of spatio-temporal density variability of juveniles and adults but only 50% of young-of-the-year's. By contrast, young-of-the-year trout were highly sensitive to thermal conditions, their performance declining with temperature at a higher rate than older life stages, and disruptions being triggered at lower temperature thresholds. Results suggest that limiting temperature effects were progressively stronger with increasing anthropogenic disturbance. There was however a critical threshold, matching the incipient thermal limit for survival, beyond which realized density was always below potential numbers irrespective of disturbance intensity. We additionally found a lower threshold, matching the thermal limit for feeding, beyond which even unaltered populations declined. We predict that most of our study

  4. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...

  5. Salinity ranges of some southern African fish species occurring in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    bieus have developed the power of hypotonic regulation but most species are incapable of this adaptation. Marine fishes such as M. eephalus and Elops maehnata are strong osmoregulators capable of surviving in low and high salinity water, but of the total marine ichthyofauna it is apparent that only a small percentage of ...

  6. Data from: Unequal contribution of widespread and narrow-ranged species to botanical diversity patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Raes, N.; Wieringa, J.J.; Sosef, M.S.M.

    2017-01-01

    In conservation studies, solely widespread species are often used as indicators of diversity patterns, but narrow-ranged species can show different patterns. Here, we assess how well subsets of narrow-ranged, widespread or randomly selected plant species represent patterns of species richness and

  7. Unequal contribution of widespread and narrow-ranged species to botanical diversity patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Raes, N.; Wieringa, J.J.; Sosef, Marc

    2016-01-01

    In conservation studies, solely widespread species are often used as indicators of diversity patterns, but narrow-ranged species can show different patterns. Here, we assess how well subsets of narrow-ranged, widespread or randomly selected plant species represent patterns of species richness and

  8. Range-wide surveys for prairie butterfly species of concern

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Final report on a project to determine the status and current range of the Dakota skipper (Hesperia dacotae) and Poweshiek skipperling (Oarisma poweshiek) within...

  9. Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from centre to margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo; Mark Taper; Michele Schoenberger; J. Brandle

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the boundaries of species'rangs and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-tamporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in...

  10. Predicting potential European bison habitat across its former range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Radeloff, Volker C; Perzanowski, Kajetan; Kozlo, Piotr; Sipko, Taras; Khoyetskyy, Pavlo; Bashta, Andriy-Taras; Chikurova, Evgenia; Parnikoza, Ivan; Baskin, Leonid; Angelstam, Per; Waller, Donald M

    2011-04-01

    Habitat loss threatens large mammals worldwide, and their survival will depend on habitat in human-dominated landscapes. Conservation planners thus face the challenge to identify areas of least conflict with land use, yet broadscale species distribution models rarely incorporate real landscape patterns nor do they identify potential conservation conflicts. An excellent example of such conservation challenges is provided by European bison (Bison bonasus). Almost extinct by the early 20th century, bison can only survive in the wild if large metapopulations are established, but it is unclear where new herds can be reintroduced. Using European bison as an example we conducted a continental-scale habitat assessment based on real landscape patterns. Our specific aims here were to (1) map European bison habitat throughout the species' former range, (2) examine whether broadscale habitat suitability factors differ from previously reported fine-scale factors, and (3) assess where suitable habitat occurs in areas with low potential for conflict with land use. We assessed habitat suitability using herd range maps for all 36 free-ranging European bison herds as habitat use data. Habitat suitability maps were compared with maps of land cover, livestock density, agricultural constraints, and protected areas to assess potential conservation conflicts. Our models had high goodness of fit (AUC = 0.941), and we found abundant potential bison habitat. European bison prefer mosaic-type landscapes, with a preference for broad-leaved and mixed forests. European bison metapopulations do not appear to be limited by habitat availability. However, most potential habitat occurred outside protected areas and has substantial potential for conservation conflicts. The most promising areas for establishing large bison metapopulations all occur in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Carpathians, the Belarus-Ukraine borderlands, and several regions in European Russia). The future of European bison and that

  11. What determines a species' geographical range? Thermal biology and latitudinal range size relationships in European diving beetles (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calosi, Piero; Bilton, David T; Spicer, John I; Votier, Stephen C; Atfield, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    1. The geographical range sizes of individual species vary considerably in extent, although the factors underlying this variation remain poorly understood, and could include a number of ecological and evolutionary processes. A favoured explanation for range size variation is that this result from differences in fundamental niche breadths, suggesting a key role for physiology in determining range size, although to date empirical tests of these ideas remain limited. 2. Here we explore relationships between thermal physiology and biogeography, whilst controlling for possible differences in dispersal ability and phylogenetic relatedness, across 14 ecologically similar congeners which differ in geographical range extent; European diving beetles of the genus Deronectes Sharp (Coleoptera, Dytiscidae). Absolute upper and lower temperature tolerance and acclimatory abilities are determined for populations of each species, following acclimation in the laboratory. 3. Absolute thermal tolerance range is the best predictor of both species' latitudinal range extent and position, differences in dispersal ability (based on wing size) apparently being less important in this group. In addition, species' northern and southern range limits are related to their tolerance of low and high temperatures respectively. In all cases, absolute temperature tolerances, rather than acclimatory abilities are the best predictors of range parameters, whilst the use of independent contrasts suggested that species' thermal acclimation abilities may also relate to biogeography, although increased acclimatory ability does not appear to be associated with increased range size. 4. Our study is the first to provide empirical support for a relationship between thermal physiology and range size variation in widespread and restricted species, conducted using the same experimental design, within a phylogenetically and ecologically controlled framework.

  12. Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

    2016-08-04

    For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Predicting animal production on sourveld: a species-based approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Presents a simulation model which was developed to predict average daily gain in cattle and sheep grazing different species and swards of different species composition on Dohne Sourveld. The model was based upon measured ingestive and digestive characteristics of different grass species and incorporates an explicit ...

  14. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  15. Life history traits to predict biogeographic species distributions in bivalves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montalto, V.; Rinaldi, A.; Sarà, G.

    2015-10-01

    Organismal fecundity ( F) and its relationship with body size (BS) are key factors in predicting species distribution under current and future scenarios of global change. A functional trait-based dynamic energy budget (FT-DEB) is proposed as a mechanistic approach to predict the variation of F and BS as function of environmental correlates using two marine bivalves as model species ( Mytilus galloprovincialis and Brachidontes pharaonis). Validation proof of model skill (i.e., degree of correspondence between model predictions and field observations) and stationarity (i.e., ability of a model generated from data collected at one place/time to predict processes at another place/time) was provided to test model performance in predicting the bivalve distribution throughout the 22 sites in the Central Mediterranean Sea under local conditions of food density and body temperature. Model skill and stationarity were tested through the estimate of commission (i.e., proportion of species' absences predicted present) and omission (i.e., proportion of presences predicted absent) errors of predictions by comparing mechanistic predicted vs. observed F and BS values throughout the study area extrapolated by lab experiments and literature search. The resulting relationship was reliable for both species, and body size and fecundity were highly correlated in M. galloprovincialis compared to B. pharaonis; FT-DEB showed correct predictions of presence in more than 75 % of sites, and the regression between BS predicted vs. observed was highly significant in both species. Whilst recognising the importance of biotic interactions in shaping the distribution of species, our FT-DEB approach provided reliable quantitative estimates of where our species had sufficient F to support local populations or suggesting reproductive failure. Mechanistically, estimating F and BS as key traits of species life history can also be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context that surpasses the

  16. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...... species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change....

  17. Unequal Contribution of Widespread and Narrow-Ranged Species to Botanical Diversity Patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André S J van Proosdij

    Full Text Available In conservation studies, solely widespread species are often used as indicators of diversity patterns, but narrow-ranged species can show different patterns. Here, we assess how well subsets of narrow-ranged, widespread or randomly selected plant species represent patterns of species richness and weighted endemism in Gabon, tropical Africa. Specifically, we assess the effect of using different definitions of widespread and narrow-ranged and of the information content of the subsets. Finally, we test if narrow-ranged species are overrepresented in species-rich areas. Based on distribution models of Gabonese plant species, we defined sequential subsets from narrow-ranged-to-widespread, widespread-to-narrow-ranged, and 100 randomly arranged species sequences using the range sizes of species in tropical Africa and within Gabon. Along these sequences, correlations between subsets and the total species richness and total weighted endemism patterns were computed. Random species subsets best represent the total species richness pattern, whereas subsets of narrow-ranged species best represent the total weighted endemism pattern. For species ordered according to their range sizes in tropical Africa, subsets of narrow-ranged species represented the total species richness pattern better than widespread species subsets did. However, the opposite was true when range sizes were truncated by the Gabonese national country borders. Correcting for the information content of the subset results in a skew of the sequential correlations, its direction depending on the range-size frequency distribution. Finally, we find a strong, positive, non-linear relation between weighted endemism and total species richness. Observed differences in the contribution of narrow-ranged, widespread and randomly selected species to species richness and weighted endemism patterns can be explained by the range-size frequency distribution and the use of different definitions of widespread

  18. Vasectomy reversal semen analysis: new reference ranges predict pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majzoub, Ahmad; Tadros, Nicholas N; Polackwich, A Scott; Sharma, Rakesh; Agarwal, Ashok; Sabanegh, Edmund

    2017-04-01

    To study the semen analysis values required to cause a pregnancy after vasectomy reversal (VR). Vasectomy reversal is increasingly performed on men who wish to regain fertility after elective sterilization. Despite a thorough understanding of predictors of vasal patency after surgery, little is known about the patients' semen parameters and pregnancy potential. Retrospective case-control study. Tertiary-care hospital. A total of 139 patients who underwent VR at the Cleveland Clinic from 2010 to 2014. Vasectomy reversal. Pregnancy, semen parameters. Data regarding patient and spouse ages, obstructive interval, intraoperative findings, procedure performed, postoperative semen results, and spontaneous pregnancy outcome were collected. Pearson and t tests were used to analyze categoric and numeric data, respectively. Average semen reference values were developed. The mean obstructive interval was 9.5 ± 1.2 years. Spontaneous pregnancy was achieved by 49.6% of patients (69/139) and was directly related to better intraoperative vasal fluid quality and postoperative sperm concentration, motility, and strict morphology. The reference ranges of postoperative semen parameters of patients with spontaneous pregnancy were substantially lower than normal values published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2010. Spontaneous pregnancy was reported in 15%, 21.3%, and 14.8% of patients with a sperm concentration of <5 million/mL, a sperm motility of <10%, and a normal morphology of <1%, respectively. Normal ranges of semen parameters as established by the 2010 WHO standards may not adequately predict post-vasectomy reversal fertility. Significantly lower post-reversal semen parameters may be considered to be sufficient in previously fertile patients after reversal compared with the normal population. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. High-density native-range species affects the invasive plant Chromolaena odorata more strongly than species from its invasive range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yulong; Liao, Zhiyong

    2017-11-22

    Invasive plant species often form dense mono-dominant stands in areas they have invaded, while having only sparse distribution in their native ranges, and the reasons behind this phenomenon are a key point of research in invasive species biology. Differences in species composition between native and invasive ranges may contribute to the difference in distribution status. In this study, we found that the high-density condition had a more negative effect on C. odorata than the low-density condition when co-grown with neighbor plants from its native range in Mexico, while this pattern was not in evidence when it was grown with neighbors from its invasive range in China. Different competitive ability and coevolutionary history with C. odorata between native-range neighbors and invasive-range neighbors may lead to the inconsistent patterns.

  20. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiguet, F.; Devictor, V.; Ottvall, R.; Van Turnhout, C.; Van der Jeugd, H.P.; Lindström, Å.

    2010-01-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the

  1. Logistic regression accuracy across different spatial and temporal scales for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolyn B. Meyer; Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

    2004-01-01

    The scale at which habitat variables are measured affects the accuracy of resource selection functions in predicting animal use of sites. We used logistic regression models for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet, (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in a large region in California to address how much changing the spatial or temporal scale of...

  2. Resource Selection Probability Functions for Gopher Tortoise: Providing a Management Tool Applicable Across the Species' Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowal, Virginia A.; Schmolke, Amelie; Kanagaraj, Rajapandian; Bruggeman, Douglas

    2014-03-01

    The gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus) is protected by conservation policy throughout its range. Efforts to protect the species from further decline demand detailed understanding of its habitat requirements, which have not yet been rigorously defined. Current methods of identifying gopher tortoise habitat typically rely on coarse soil and vegetation classifications, and are prone to over-prediction of suitable habitat. We used a logistic resource selection probability function in an information-theoretic framework to understand the relative importance of various environmental factors to gopher tortoise habitat selection, drawing on nationwide environmental datasets, and an existing tortoise survey of the Ft. Benning military base. We applied the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an index of vegetation density, and found that NDVI was strongly negatively associated with active burrow locations. Our results showed that the most parsimonious model included variables from all candidate model types (landscape features, topography, soil, vegetation), and the model groups describing soil or vegetation alone performed poorly. These results demonstrate with a rigorous quantitative approach that although soil and vegetation are important to the gopher tortoise, they are not sufficient to describe suitable habitat. More widely, our results highlight the feasibility of constructing highly accurate habitat suitability models from data that are widely available throughout the species' range. Our study shows that the widespread availability of national environmental datasets describing important components of gopher tortoise habitat, combined with existing tortoise surveys on public lands, can be leveraged to inform knowledge of habitat suitability and target recovery efforts range-wide.

  3. Predicted geographic ranges for North American sylvatic Trichinella

    Science.gov (United States)

    Because of a lack of comprehensive surveys, the geographic distributions of the North American species of Trichinella (T. nativa and its variant T6, T. murrelli, and T. spiralis) are poorly characterized. These species are potentially zoonotic, and biogeographical information is critical to monitori...

  4. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    .... We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus...

  5. Predicting fish species distribution in estuaries: Influence of species' ecology in model accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    França, Susana; Cabral, Henrique N.

    2016-10-01

    Current threats to biodiversity, combined with limited data availability, have made for species distribution models (SDMs) to be increasingly used due to their ability to predict species' potential distribution, by relating species occurrence with environmental estimates. Often used in ecology, conservation biology and environmental management, SDMs have been informing conservation strategies, and thus it is becoming crucial to understand how trustworthy their predictions are. Uncertainty in model predictions is expected, but knowing the origin of prediction errors may help reducing it. Indeed, uncertainty may be related not only with data quality and the modelling algorithm used, but also with species ecological characteristics. To investigate whether the performance of SDM's may vary with species' ecological characteristics, distribution models for 21 fish species occurring in estuaries from the Portuguese coast were examined. These models were built at two distinct spatial resolutions and seven environmental explanatory variables were used as predictors. SDMs' accuracy was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) plots, sensitivity and specificity. Relationships between each measure of accuracy and species ecological characteristics were then examined. SDMs of the fish species presented small differences between the considered scales, and predictors as latitude, temperature and salinity were often selected at both scales. Measures of model accuracy presented differences between species and scales, but generally higher accuracy was obtained at smaller spatial scales. Among the ecological traits tested, species feeding mode and estuarine use functional groups were the most influential on the performance of distribution models. Habitat tolerance (number of habitat types frequented), species abundance, body size and spawning period also showed some effect. This analyses will contribute to distinguish, based on species

  6. Mapping plant species ranges in the Hawaiian Islands: developing a methodology and associated GIS layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Jonathan P.; Jacobi, James D.; Gon, Samuel M.; Matsuwaki, Dwight; Mehrhoff, Loyal; Wagner, Warren; Lucas, Matthew; Rowe, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    This report documents a methodology for projecting the geographic ranges of plant species in the Hawaiian Islands. The methodology consists primarily of the creation of several geographic information system (GIS) data layers depicting attributes related to the geographic ranges of plant species. The most important spatial-data layer generated here is an objectively defined classification of climate as it pertains to the distribution of plant species. By examining previous zonal-vegetation classifications in light of spatially detailed climate data, broad zones of climate relevant to contemporary concepts of vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands can be explicitly defined. Other spatial-data layers presented here include the following: substrate age, as large areas of the island of Hawai'i, in particular, are covered by very young lava flows inimical to the growth of many plant species; biogeographic regions of the larger islands that are composites of multiple volcanoes, as many of their species are restricted to a given topographically isolated mountain or a specified group of them; and human impact, which can reduce the range of many species relative to where they formerly were found. Other factors influencing the geographic ranges of species that are discussed here but not developed further, owing to limitations in rendering them spatially, include topography, soils, and disturbance. A method is described for analyzing these layers in a GIS, in conjunction with a database of species distributions, to project the ranges of plant species, which include both the potential range prior to human disturbance and the projected present range. Examples of range maps for several species are given as case studies that demonstrate different spatial characteristics of range. Several potential applications of species-range maps are discussed, including facilitating field surveys, informing restoration efforts, studying range size and rarity, studying biodiversity, managing

  7. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G Froese

    Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  8. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froese, Jens G; Smith, Carl S; Durr, Peter A; McAlpine, Clive A; van Klinken, Rieks D

    2017-01-01

    Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  9. Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, B. G.; Dix, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Rainfall prediction for a year in advance would be immensely valuable for numerous activities, if it were achievable. It is shown that in any one year, the chances of making a correct prediction is about 50%, but there is no way a priori of determining the correctness of such a prediction. This results primarily because annual mean time series of rainfall over most of the globe consists of white noise, i.e. they are random/stochastic. This outcome is shown to exist for both observations and output from a coupled global climatic model, based on autoregressive analysis. The major forcing mechanism for rainfall anomalies over much of the global is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, but it explains only a modest part of the variance in the rainfall. Much of the remaining variance is attributed to internal climatic variability, and it is shown that this imposes a major limitation on rainfall predictability.

  10. A short-range ensemble prediction system for southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Park, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available numerical weather prediction system over southern Africa using the Conformal- Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). An ensemble prediction system (EPS) combines several individual weather model setups into an average forecast system where each member... contributes to the final weather forecast (Atger, 1999). Four different EPSs were configured using lagged-average forecasting techniques (Kalnay, 2003) and two different cloud parameterisation schemes (McGregor, 2003; Rotstayn, 1997). Rainfall forecasts...

  11. Are High-Impact Species Predictable? An Analysis of Naturalised Grasses in Northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Klinken, Rieks D.; Panetta, F. Dane; Coutts, Shaun R.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of

  12. Are range-size distributions consistent with species-level heritability?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Gotelli, Nicholas; Rahbek, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has...... been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output...

  13. Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: Implications for future range expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, W.G.; Benson, A.J.; Byers, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    1. Two dominant drivers of species distributions are climate and habitat, both of which are changing rapidly. Understanding the relative importance of variables that can control distributions is critical, especially for invasive species that may spread rapidly and have strong effects on ecosystems. 2. Here, we examine the relative importance of climate and habitat variables in controlling the distribution of the widespread invasive freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea, and we model its future distribution under a suite of climate scenarios using logistic regression and maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt). 3. Logistic regression identified climate variables as more important than habitat variables in controlling Corbicula distribution. MaxEnt modelling predicted Corbicula's range expansion westward and northward to occupy half of the contiguous United States. By 2080, Corbicula's potential range will expand 25–32%, with more than half of the continental United States being climatically suitable. 4. Our combination of multiple approaches has revealed the importance of climate over habitat in controlling Corbicula's distribution and validates the climate-only MaxEnt model, which can readily examine the consequences of future climate projections. 5. Given the strong influence of climate variables on Corbicula's distribution, as well as Corbicula's ability to disperse quickly and over long distances, Corbicula is poised to expand into New England and the northern Midwest of the United States. Thus, the direct effects of climate change will probably be compounded by the addition of Corbicula and its own influences on ecosystem function.

  14. Spatial factor analysis: a new tool for estimating joint species distributions and correlations in species range

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorson, James T.; Scheuerell, Mark D.; Shelton, Andrew O.

    2015-01-01

    be imprecise for species with low densities or few observations. Additionally, simple geostatistical methods fail to account for correlations in distribution among species and generally estimate such cross-correlations as a post hoc exercise. 2. We therefore present spatial factor analysis (SFA), a spatial...

  15. Predictive soil mapping in southern Arizona's basin and range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Matthew Robert

    A fundamental knowledge gap in understanding land-atmosphere interactions is accurate, high-resolution soil properties. Remote sensing and spatial modeling techniques can bridge the gap between site-specific soil properties and landscape variability, thereby improving predictions of soil attributes. Three studies were completed to advance soil prediction models in semiarid areas. The first study developed a soil pre-mapping technique using automated image segmentation that utilized soil-landscape relationships and surface reflectance to produce an effective map unit design in a 160,000 ha soil survey area. Overall classification accuracy of soil taxonomic units at the suborder was 58 % after including soil temperature regime. Physical soil properties were not significantly different for individual transects; however, properties were significantly different between soil pre-map units when soils from the entire study area were compared. Other studies used a raster approach to predict physical soil properties at a 5 m spatial resolution for a 6,265 ha area using digital soil mapping. The second study utilized remotely-sensed auxiliary data to develop a sampling design and compared three geostatistical techniques for predicting surface soil properties. Ordinary kriging had the smallest prediction error; however, regression kriging preserved landscape features present in the study area and demonstrated the potential of this technique for quantifying variability of soil components within soil map units. The third study applied quantitative data from soil prediction models in study 2 and additional models of subsurface properties to a pedotransfer function for predicting hydraulic soil parameters at the landscape scale. Saturated hydraulic conductivity and water retention parameters were used to predict water residence times for loss to gravity and evapotranspiration across the landscape. High water residence time for gravitational water corresponded to both low drainage

  16. Modeling the potential area of occupancy at fine resolution may reduce uncertainty in species range estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja; Draper, David; Nogues, David Bravo

    2012-01-01

    and maximum entropy modeling to assess whether different sampling (expert versus systematic surveys) may affect AOO estimates based on habitat suitability maps, and the differences between such measurements and traditional coarse-grid methods. Fine-scale models performed robustly and were not influenced...... Area (MPA). As defined here, the potential AOO provides spatially-explicit measures of species ranges which are permanent in the time and scarcely affected by sampling bias. The overestimation of these measures may be reduced using higher thresholds of habitat suitability, but standard rules as the MPA...... by survey protocols, providing similar habitat suitability outputs with high spatial agreement. Model-based estimates of potential AOO were significantly smaller than AOO measures obtained from coarse-scale grids, even if the first were obtained from conservative thresholds based on the Minimal Predicted...

  17. Seed and root endophytic fungi in a range expanding and a related plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geisen, Stefan; Kostenko, Olga; Cnossen, Mark C.; Hooven, ten Freddy C.; Vreš, Branko; Putten, van der Wim H.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is accelerating the spread of plants and their associated species to new ranges. The differences in range shift capacity of the various types of species may disrupt long-term co-evolved relationships especially those belowground, however, this may be less so for seed-borne

  18. Seed and root endophytic fungi in a range expanding and a related plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geisen, Stefan; Kostenko, Olga; Cnossen, Mark C.; ten Hooven, Freddy C.; Vreš, Branko; van Der Putten, Wim H.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is accelerating the spread of plants and their associated species to new ranges. The differences in range shift capacity of the various types of species may disrupt long-term co-evolved relationships especially those belowground, however, this may be less so for seed-borne endophytic

  19. Dynamic occupancy models for analyzing species' range dynamics across large geographic scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bled, Florent; Nichols, James D; Altwegg, Res

    2013-12-01

    Large-scale biodiversity data are needed to predict species' responses to global change and to address basic questions in macroecology. While such data are increasingly becoming available, their analysis is challenging because of the typically large heterogeneity in spatial sampling intensity and the need to account for observation processes. Two further challenges are accounting for spatial effects that are not explained by covariates, and drawing inference on dynamics at these large spatial scales. We developed dynamic occupancy models to analyze large-scale atlas data. In addition to occupancy, these models estimate local colonization and persistence probabilities. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation using conditional autoregressive models and autologistic models. We fitted the models to detection/nondetection data collected on a quarter-degree grid across southern Africa during two atlas projects, using the hadeda ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) as an example. The model accurately reproduced the range expansion between the first (SABAP1: 1987-1992) and second (SABAP2: 2007-2012) Southern African Bird Atlas Project into the drier parts of interior South Africa. Grid cells occupied during SABAP1 generally remained occupied, but colonization of unoccupied grid cells was strongly dependent on the number of occupied grid cells in the neighborhood. The detection probability strongly varied across space due to variation in effort, observer identity, seasonality, and unexplained spatial effects. We present a flexible hierarchical approach for analyzing grid-based atlas data using dynamical occupancy models. Our model is similar to a species' distribution model obtained using generalized additive models but has a number of advantages. Our model accounts for the heterogeneous sampling process, spatial correlation, and perhaps most importantly, allows us to examine dynamic aspects of species ranges.

  20. Explaining life history variation in a changing climate across a species' range

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neuheimer, Anna B.; MacKenzie, Brian R.

    2014-01-01

    changes in spawning time for 21 populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species' range (40 degrees to 80 degrees N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree-days, DD). First, we estimate spawning DD among...... history of the species. Finally, we use our results to estimate spawning time under future climate regimes, and discuss the implications for cod ecology across the species' range....

  1. Bird species richness is associated with phylogenetic relatedness, plant species richness, and altitudinal range in Inner Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Chenxia; Feng, Gang; Si, Xingfeng; Mao, Lingfeng; Yang, Guisheng; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Yang, Jie

    2018-01-01

    Bird species richness is mediated by local, regional, and historical factors, for example, competition, environmental heterogeneity, contemporary, and historical climate. Here, we related bird species richness with phylogenetic relatedness of bird assemblages, plant species richness, topography, contemporary climate, and glacial-interglacial climate change to investigate the relative importance of these factors. This study was conducted in Inner Mongolia, an arid and semiarid region with diverse vegetation types and strong species richness gradients. The following associated variables were included as follows: phylogenetic relatedness of bird assemblages (Net Relatedness Index, NRI), plant species richness, altitudinal range, contemporary climate (mean annual temperature and precipitation, MAT and MAP), and contemporary-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) change in climate (change in MAT and change in MAP). Ordinary least squares linear, simultaneous autoregressive linear, and Random Forest models were used to assess the associations between these variables and bird species richness across this region. We found that bird species richness was correlated negatively with NRI and positively with plant species richness and altitudinal range, with no significant correlations with contemporary climate and glacial-interglacial climate change. The six best combinations of variables ranked by Random Forest models consistently included NRI, plant species richness, and contemporary-LGM change in MAT. Our results suggest important roles of local ecological factors in shaping the distribution of bird species richness across this semiarid region. Our findings highlight the potential importance of these local ecological factors, for example, environmental heterogeneity, habitat filtering, and biotic interactions, in biodiversity maintenance.

  2. Comparative histology of muscle in free ranging cetaceans: shallow versus deep diving species

    OpenAIRE

    Sierra, E.; Fernández, A; Espinosa de los Monteros, A.; Díaz-Delgado, J.; Y. Bernaldo de Quirós; N. García-Álvarez; Arbelo, M.; Herráez, P

    2015-01-01

    Different marine mammal species exhibit a wide range of diving behaviour based on their breath-hold diving capabilities. They are classically categorized as long duration, deep-diving and short duration, shallow-diving species. These abilities are likely to be related to the muscle characteristics of each species. Despite the increasing number of publications on muscle profile in different cetacean species, very little information is currently available concerning the characteristics of other...

  3. Predicting aquatic macrophyte occurrence in soft-water oligotrophic lakes (Pyrenees mountain range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Pulido

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Distribution of aquatic macrophytes in lakes is related to geographical, morphological, catchment and water chemistry variables as well as human impacts, which modify the original environment. Here, we aim at building statistical models to establish the ecological niches of 11 aquatic macrophytes (10 different phanerogams and the genus Nitella from oligotrophic soft-water lakes and infer their ecological requirements and environmental constraints at the southernmost limit of their distribution. Macrophyte occurrence and environmental variables were obtained from 86 non-exploited oligotrophic soft-water lakes from the Pyrenees (Southern Europe; 42º50´N, 1º00´E; macrophytes inhabited 55 of these lakes. Optimum ranges and macrophyte occurrence were predicted in relation to 18 geographical, morphological, catchment and water chemistry variables using univariate and multivariate logistic models. Lakes at low altitude, in vegetated catchments and with low water concentration of NO3- and SO4-2, were the most suitable to host macrophytes. In general, individual species of aquatic macrophytes showed clear patterns of segregation along conductivity and pH gradients, although the specific combination of variables selected in the best models explaining their occurrence differed among species.  Based on the species response to pH and conductivity, we found Isoetes lacustris have its optimum in waters with low conductivity and pH (i.e. negative monotonic response. In contrast, Callitriche palustris, Ranunculus aquatilis, Subularia aquatica, Nitella spp., and Myriophyllum alterniflorum showed an optimum at intermediate values (i.e. unimodal response, whereas Potamogeton berchtoldii, Potamogeton alpinus, and Ranunculus trichophyllus as species had their optimum at relatively high water pH and conductivity (i.e. positive monotonic response. This pattern has been observed in other regions for the same species, although with different optima and tolerance

  4. Predicting Long-Range Traversability from Short-Range Stereo-Derived Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turmon, Michael; Tang, Benyang; Howard, Andrew; Brjaracharya, Max

    2010-01-01

    Based only on its appearance in imagery, this program uses close-range 3D terrain analysis to produce training data sufficient to estimate the traversability of terrain beyond 3D sensing range. This approach is called learning from stereo (LFS). In effect, the software transfers knowledge from middle distances, where 3D geometry provides training cues, into the far field where only appearance is available. This is a viable approach because the same obstacle classes, and sometimes the same obstacles, are typically present in the mid-field and the farfield. Learning thus extends the effective look-ahead distance of the sensors.

  5. Wildlife species benefitting from a greener Arctic are most sensitive to shrub cover at leading range edges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Helen C; Høye, Toke T; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-07-21

    Widespread expansion of shrubs is occurring across the Arctic. Shrub expansion will substantially alter arctic wildlife habitats. Identifying which wildlife species are most affected by shrubification is central to predicting future arctic community composition. Through meta-analysis, we synthesized the published evidence for effects of canopy-forming shrubs on birds and mammals in the Arctic and Subarctic. We examined variation in species behaviour, distribution and population dynamics in birds and mammals in response to shrub cover (including shrub cover indicators such as shrub occurrence, extent, density and height). We also assessed the degree of heterogeneity in wildlife responses to shrub cover and synthesized the remaining literature that did not fit the criteria for our quantitative meta-analyses. Species from higher green vegetation biomass habitats (high Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, across their distribution) were more likely to respond positively to shrub cover, demonstrating the potential for species to expand from boreal to arctic habitats under shrubification. Wildlife populations located in the lowest vegetation biomass (low NDVI) areas of their species' range had the greatest proportion of positive responses to shrub cover, highlighting how increases in performance at leading edges of invaders distributions may be particularly rapid. This demonstrates the need to study species at these leading edges to accurately predict expansion potential. Arctic specialists were poorly represented across studies (limited to 5 bird and 0 mammal species), this knowledge gap potentially explains the few reported negative effects of shrub cover (3 of 29 species). Species responses to shrub cover showed substantial heterogeneity and varied among sites and years in all studies with sufficient replication to detect such variation. Our study highlights the importance of responses at species range edges in determining outcomes of shrubification for

  6. Predicting Success of Range-Expanding Coral Reef Fish in Temperate Habitats Using Temperature-Abundance Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Booth

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An 18-year database of coral reef fish expatriation poleward in South East Australia was used to estimate persistence of coal reef fish recruits on temperate reefs. Surveys have identified over 150 coral reef fish species recruiting to temperate reefs at latitudes of 34°S (Sydney and 60 species to 37°S (Merimbula with 20 and 5 species respectively overwintering in at least 1 year over the study duration. We developed indices of vulnerability of key species to drops in water temperatures, by relating drops in abundances of species to temperature drops. Twenty species were ranked according to their temperature vulnerability. Overall, the families Chaetodontidae (butterflyfishes, Acanthuridae (surgeonfishes, Labridae (wrasses and Pomacetnridae (damselfishes had similar cold-water tolerance. However, there was considerable variability within families, for instance in the Pomacentridae, species from the genus Abudefduf appeared to have better cold-temperature tolerance than the other species. Predicted minimum overwintering temperature varied from 15.6°C to 19.8°C, with some species showing lower Tzero at Merimbula, the more poleward location. There was general concordance between a species' tolerance to cold-water and its tendency to occur as an overwinter but also notable exceptions. So while this work demonstrates the potential utility of tolerance to seasonal temperature drops as a means to predict range expansion capacity of vagrant species, the exceptional cases serve to highlight alternative factors. Specifically, tolerance to seasonal cooling of water is not the only important factor when predicting the range expansion capacity of a species. Factors affecting the general abundance of the vagrants, such as habitat suitability and competitor/predator environments will also be critical where overwinter survival becomes a lottery.

  7. Species traits and phylogenetic conservatism of climate-induced range shifts in stream fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, Lise; Murienne, Jérôme; Grenouillet, Gaël

    2014-09-24

    Understanding climate-induced range shifts is crucial for biodiversity conservation. However, no general consensus has so far emerged about the mechanisms involved and the role of phylogeny in shaping species responses has been poorly explored. Here, we investigate whether species traits and their underlying phylogenetic constraints explain altitudinal shifts at the trailing and leading edges of stream fish species ranges. We demonstrate that these shifts are related to dissimilar mechanisms: whereas range retractions show some support for phylogenetic clustering due to a high level of conservatism in thermal safety margins, range expansions are underpinned by both evolutionarily conserved and labile traits, notably trophic position and life-history strategy, hence decreasing the strength of phylogenetic signal. Therefore, while climate change brings many difficulties in establishing a general understanding of species vulnerability, these findings emphasize how combining trait-based approaches in light of the species evolutionary history may offer new opportunities in facing conservation challenges.

  8. From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy R. Holcombe

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1 current; (2 2020; and (3 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.

  9. Soil microbial community structure of range-expanding plant species differs from co-occurring natives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morriën, W.E.; Putten, van der W.H.

    2013-01-01

    1. Due to global warming and other changes in the environment, many native and exotic plant species show range expansion from lower to higher latitudes. In the new range, the (in)ability of range-expanding plants to establish associations with local soil microbes can have important consequences for

  10. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  11. Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2012-06-01

    Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

  12. Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Henri A Thomassen; Trevon Fuller; Salvi Asefi-Najafabady; Julia A G Shiplacoff; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Seth Blumberg; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Timothée L Kinkela; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; Matthew LeBreton; Hermann Meyer; Wright, Linda L

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first c...

  13. Comparison of Ablation Predictions for Carbonaceous Materials Using CEA and JANAF-Based Species Thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milos, Frank S.

    2011-01-01

    In most previous work at NASA Ames Research Center, ablation predictions for carbonaceous materials were obtained using a species thermodynamics database developed by Aerotherm Corporation. This database is derived mostly from the JANAF thermochemical tables. However, the CEA thermodynamics database, also used by NASA, is considered more up to date. In this work, the FIAT code was modified to use CEA-based curve fits for species thermodynamics, then analyses using both the JANAF and CEA thermodynamics were performed for carbon and carbon phenolic materials over a range of test conditions. The ablation predictions are comparable at lower heat fluxes where the dominant mechanism is carbon oxidation. However, the predictions begin to diverge in the sublimation regime, with the CEA model predicting lower recession. The disagreement is more significant for carbon phenolic than for carbon, and this difference is attributed to hydrocarbon species that may contribute to the ablation rate.

  14. Habitat area and climate stability determine geographical variation in plant species range sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Enquist, Brian J.; McGill, Brian J.

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85,000 ...... concerns over the potential effects of future climate change and habitat loss on biodiversity.......Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85...

  15. Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranda C Jones

    Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.

  16. Predicting leaf traits of herbaceous species from their spectral characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelofsen, H.D.; Bodegom, van P.M.; Kooistra, L.; Witte, J.P.M.

    2014-01-01

    Trait predictions from leaf spectral properties are mainly applied to tree species, while herbaceous systems received little attention in this topic. Whether similar trait–spectrum relations can be derived for herbaceous plants that differ strongly in growing strategy and environmental constraints

  17. Elevational range shifts in four mountain ungulate species from the Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulf Büntgen; Lucie Greuter; Kurt Bollmann; Hannes Jenny; Andrew Liebhold; J. Diego Galván; Nils C. Stenseth; Carrie Andrew; Atle Mysterud

    2017-01-01

    Warming-induced range shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients have been observed in several species from various taxa. The mobility and behavioral plasticity of large endothermic mammals, however, complicate the detection of climatic effects on their spatial distributions. Here, we analyzed 230,565 hunting locations of the four most abundant ungulate species...

  18. Evaluating the significance of paleophylogeographic species distribution models in reconstructing quaternary range-shifts of nearctic chelonians.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Rödder

    Full Text Available The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5-10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles. These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i phylogeographic differentiation; (ii morphological variation; (iii physiological tolerances; and (iv intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii identify geographic processes that result in

  19. Comparative histology of muscle in free ranging cetaceans: shallow versus deep diving species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, E; Fernández, A; Espinosa de los Monteros, A; Díaz-Delgado, J; Bernaldo de Quirós, Y; García-Álvarez, N; Arbelo, M; Herráez, P

    2015-10-30

    Different marine mammal species exhibit a wide range of diving behaviour based on their breath-hold diving capabilities. They are classically categorized as long duration, deep-diving and short duration, shallow-diving species. These abilities are likely to be related to the muscle characteristics of each species. Despite the increasing number of publications on muscle profile in different cetacean species, very little information is currently available concerning the characteristics of other muscle components in these species. In this study, we examined skeletal muscle fiber type, fiber size (cross sectional area and lesser diameter), intramuscular substrates, and perimysium-related structures, by retrospective study in 146 stranded cetaceans involving 15 different species. Additionally, we investigated diving profile-specific histological features. Our results suggest that deep diving species have higher amount of intramyocyte lipid droplets, and evidence higher percentage of intramuscular adipose tissue, and larger fibre sizes in this group of animals.

  20. Extensive range overlap between heliconiine sister species: evidence for sympatric speciation in butterflies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosser, Neil; Kozak, Krzysztof M; Phillimore, Albert B; Mallet, James

    2015-06-30

    Sympatric speciation is today generally viewed as plausible, and some well-supported examples exist, but its relative contribution to biodiversity remains to be established. We here quantify geographic overlap of sister species of heliconiine butterflies, and use age-range correlations and spatial simulations of the geography of speciation to infer the frequency of sympatric speciation. We also test whether shifts in mimetic wing colour pattern, host plant use and climate niche play a role in speciation, and whether such shifts are associated with sympatry. Approximately a third of all heliconiine sister species pairs exhibit near complete range overlap, and analyses of the observed patterns of range overlap suggest that sympatric speciation contributes 32%-95% of speciation events. Müllerian mimicry colour patterns and host plant choice are highly labile traits that seem to be associated with speciation, but we find no association between shifts in these traits and range overlap. In contrast, climatic niches of sister species are more conserved. Unlike birds and mammals, sister species of heliconiines are often sympatric and our inferences using the most recent comparative methods suggest that sympatric speciation is common. However, if sister species spread rapidly into sympatry (e.g. due to their similar climatic niches), then assumptions underlying our methods would be violated. Furthermore, although we find some evidence for the role of ecology in speciation, ecological shifts did not show the associations with range overlap expected under sympatric speciation. We delimit species of heliconiines in three different ways, based on "strict and " "relaxed" biological species concepts (BSC), as well as on a surrogate for the widely-used "diagnostic" version of the phylogenetic species concept (PSC). We show that one reason why more sympatric speciation is inferred in heliconiines than in birds may be due to a different culture of species delimitation in the two

  1. A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

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    Xiaojun Kou

    Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

  2. Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pincheira-Donoso

    Full Text Available Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses, such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.

  3. Species are not most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or climatic niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, Tad; Decker, Robin R; Hastings, Alan

    2017-12-01

    The pervasive idea that species should be most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or centre of their climatic niche is a key assumption in many existing ecological hypotheses and has been declared a general macroecological rule. However, empirical support for decreasing population abundance with increasing distance from geographic range or climatic niche centre (distance-abundance relationships) remains fairly weak. We examine over 1400 bird, mammal, fish and tree species to provide a thorough test of distance-abundance relationships, and their associations with species traits and phylogenetic relationships. We failed to detect consistent distance-abundance relationships, and found no association between distance-abundance slope and species traits or phylogenetic relatedness. Together, our analyses suggest that distance-abundance relationships may be rare, difficult to detect, or are an oversimplification of the complex biogeographical forces that determine species spatial abundance patterns. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  4. Germination responses of an invasive species in native and non-native ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose L. Hierro; Ozkan Eren; Liana Khetsuriani; Alecu Diaconu; Katalin Torok; Daniel Montesinos; Krikor Andonian; David Kikodze; Levan Janoian; Diego Villarreal; Maria Estanga-Mollica; Ragan M. Callaway

    2009-01-01

    Studying germination in the native and non-native range of a species can provide unique insights into processes of range expansion and adaptation; however, traits related to germination have rarely been compared between native and nonnative populations. In a series of common garden experiments, we explored whether differences in the seasonality of precipitation,...

  5. Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Donald. McKenzie

    2013-01-01

    In these times of rapidly changing climate, the science of detecting and modeling shifts in the ranges of tree species is advancing of necessity. We briefly review the current state of the science on several fronts. First, we review current and historical evidence for shifting ranges and migration. Next, we review two broad categories of methods, focused on the spatial...

  6. Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

    2017-06-01

    Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

    2017-01-01

    Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...

  8. Forecasting the poleward range expansion of an intertidal species driven by climate alterations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Xavier

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate distributional models can be used to reliably predict the response of organisms to climatic changes. Though such models have been extensively applied to terrestrial organisms, they have hardly ever been applied to the marine environment. Recent changes in the distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica (L. were previously modelled with Classification and Regression Tree (CART and the results revealed that increases in temperature were the major driver of those changes. However, the accuracy scores during the validation of the model were unsatisfactory, preventing its use for forecasting purposes. To fulfil this objective, in the present study a more robust method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, was employed to produce a model suited to forecasting changes in the distribution of P. rustica. Results confirmed that the ANN model behaved better than the CART, and that it could be used for forecasting future distributional scenarios. The model forecasts that by the 2020s P. rustica is likely to expand its range at least 1000 km northwards. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the dispersal limitations of this species, but if such an expansion took place, major changes in the colonized ecosystems are expected due to the key role of limpets in intertidal communities.

  9. Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

  10. Evolutionary patterns of range size, abundance and species richness in Amazonian angiosperm trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Dexter

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Amazonian tree species vary enormously in their total abundance and range size, while Amazonian tree genera vary greatly in species richness. The drivers of this variation are not well understood. Here, we construct a phylogenetic hypothesis that represents half of Amazonian tree genera in order to contribute to explaining the variation. We find several clear, broad-scale patterns. Firstly, there is significant phylogenetic signal for all three characteristics; closely related genera tend to have similar numbers of species and similar mean range size and abundance. Additionally, the species richness of genera shows a significant, negative relationship with the mean range size and abundance of their constituent species. Our results suggest that phylogenetically correlated intrinsic factors, namely traits of the genera themselves, shape among lineage variation in range size, abundance and species richness. We postulate that tree stature may be one particularly relevant trait. However, other traits may also be relevant, and our study reinforces the need for ambitious compilations of trait data for Amazonian trees. In the meantime, our study shows how large-scale phylogenies can help to elucidate, and contribute to explaining, macroecological and macroevolutionary patterns in hyperdiverse, yet poorly understood regions like the Amazon Basin.

  11. Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetanová, S; Bláha, L; Liess, M; Schäfer, R B; Beketov, M A

    2014-06-01

    Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEARpesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2-1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Factors affecting seasonal habitat use, and predicted range of two tropical deer in Indonesian rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Dede Aulia; Gonzalez, Georges; Haryono, Mohammad; Muhtarom, Aom; Firdaus, Asep Yayus; Aulagnier, Stéphane

    2017-07-01

    There is an urgent recognized need for conservation of tropical forest deer. In order to identify some environmental factors affecting conservation, we analyzed the seasonal habitat use of two Indonesian deer species, Axis kuhlii in Bawean Island and Muntiacus muntjak in south-western Java Island, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables. Camera trapping was performed in different habitat types during both wet and dry season to record these elusive species. The highest number of photographs was recorded in secondary forest and during the dry season for both Bawean deer and red muntjac. In models, anthropogenic and climatic variables were the main predictors of habitat use. Distances to cultivated area and to settlement were the most important for A. kuhlii in the dry season. Distances to cultivated area and annual rainfall were significant for M. muntjak in both seasons. Then we modelled their predictive range using Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We concluded that forest landscape is the fundamental scale for deer management, and that secondary forests are potentially important landscape elements for deer conservation. Important areas for conservation were identified accounting of habitat transformation in both study areas.

  13. Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K

    2007-01-01

    at a continental scale. We demonstrate that the principal single-factor and composite (species-energy, water-energy and temperature-kinetics) models proposed thus far fail to predict (r(2) ...). These species constitute the bulk of the avifauna and are primary targets for conservation. Climate-driven models performed reasonably well only for species with the largest geographical ranges (fourth quartile) when range cohesion was enforced. Our analyses suggest that present models inadequately explain......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients...

  14. High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín González, Ana M.; Maruyama, Pietro K.; Sandel, Brody; Vizentin-Bugoni, Jeferson; Schleuning, Matthias; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Alarcón, Ruben; Araujo, Andréa C.; Araújo, Francielle P.; Mendes de Azevedo, Severino; Baquero, Andrea C.; Cotton, Peter A.; Ingversen, Tanja Toftemark; Kohler, Glauco; Lara, Carlos; Guedes Las-Casas, Flor Maria; Machado, Adriana O.; Machado, Caio Graco; Maglianesi, María Alejandra; Moura, Alan Cerqueira; Nogués-Bravo, David; Oliveira, Genilda M.; Oliveira, Paulo E.; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Rodrigues, Licléia da Cruz; Rosero-Lasprilla, Liliana; Rui, Ana Maria; Sazima, Marlies; Timmermann, Allan; Varassin, Isabela Galarda; Wang, Zhiheng; Watts, Stella; Fjeldså, Jon; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Rahbek, Carsten; Dalsgaard, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird–plant mutualistic networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird species. This relationship remained strong even when accounting for climate, furthermore, the effect of SRS on specialization was far stronger than the effect of specialization on SRS, suggesting that climate largely influences specialization through species' range-size dynamics. Irrespective of the exact mechanism involved, our results indicate that communities consisting of higher proportions of SRS may be vulnerable to disturbance not only because of their small geographical ranges, but also because of their high degree of specialization. PMID:26842573

  15. High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonne, Jesper; Martín González, Ana M; Maruyama, Pietro K; Sandel, Brody; Vizentin-Bugoni, Jeferson; Schleuning, Matthias; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Alarcón, Ruben; Araujo, Andréa C; Araújo, Francielle P; Mendes de Azevedo, Severino; Baquero, Andrea C; Cotton, Peter A; Ingversen, Tanja Toftemark; Kohler, Glauco; Lara, Carlos; Guedes Las-Casas, Flor Maria; Machado, Adriana O; Machado, Caio Graco; Maglianesi, María Alejandra; Moura, Alan Cerqueira; Nogués-Bravo, David; Oliveira, Genilda M; Oliveira, Paulo E; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Rodrigues, Licléia da Cruz; Rosero-Lasprilla, Liliana; Rui, Ana Maria; Sazima, Marlies; Timmermann, Allan; Varassin, Isabela Galarda; Wang, Zhiheng; Watts, Stella; Fjeldså, Jon; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Rahbek, Carsten; Dalsgaard, Bo

    2016-02-10

    Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird-plant mutualistic networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird species. This relationship remained strong even when accounting for climate, furthermore, the effect of SRS on specialization was far stronger than the effect of specialization on SRS, suggesting that climate largely influences specialization through species' range-size dynamics. Irrespective of the exact mechanism involved, our results indicate that communities consisting of higher proportions of SRS may be vulnerable to disturbance not only because of their small geographical ranges, but also because of their high degree of specialization. © 2016 The Author(s).

  16. Multi-scale approach for predicting fish species distributions across coral reef seascapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon J Pittman

    Full Text Available Two of the major limitations to effective management of coral reef ecosystems are a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and a paucity of data on the interacting environmental variables that drive distributional patterns. Advances in marine remote sensing, together with the novel integration of landscape ecology and advanced niche modelling techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to reliably model and map marine species distributions across many kilometres of coral reef ecosystems. We developed a multi-scale approach using three-dimensional seafloor morphology and across-shelf location to predict spatial distributions for five common Caribbean fish species. Seascape topography was quantified from high resolution bathymetry at five spatial scales (5-300 m radii surrounding fish survey sites. Model performance and map accuracy was assessed for two high performing machine-learning algorithms: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT and Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt. The three most important predictors were geographical location across the shelf, followed by a measure of topographic complexity. Predictor contribution differed among species, yet rarely changed across spatial scales. BRT provided 'outstanding' model predictions (AUC = >0.9 for three of five fish species. MaxEnt provided 'outstanding' model predictions for two of five species, with the remaining three models considered 'excellent' (AUC = 0.8-0.9. In contrast, MaxEnt spatial predictions were markedly more accurate (92% map accuracy than BRT (68% map accuracy. We demonstrate that reliable spatial predictions for a range of key fish species can be achieved by modelling the interaction between the geographical location across the shelf and the topographic heterogeneity of seafloor structure. This multi-scale, analytic approach is an important new cost-effective tool to accurately delineate essential fish habitat and support

  17. Seed and Root Endophytic Fungi in a Range Expanding and a Related Plant Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geisen, Stefan; Kostenko, Olga; Cnossen, Mark C; Ten Hooven, Freddy C; Vreš, Branko; van der Putten, Wim H

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is accelerating the spread of plants and their associated species to new ranges. The differences in range shift capacity of the various types of species may disrupt long-term co-evolved relationships especially those belowground, however, this may be less so for seed-borne endophytic microbes. We collected seeds and soil of the range-expanding Centaurea stoebe and the congeneric Centaurea jacea from three populations growing in Slovenia (native range of both Centaurea species) and the Netherlands (expanded range of C. stoebe, native range of C. jacea). We isolated and identified endophytic fungi directly from seeds, as well as from roots of the plants grown in Slovenian, Dutch or sterilized soil to compare fungal endophyte composition. Furthermore, we investigated whether C. stoebe hosts a reduced community composition of endophytes in the expanded range due to release from plant-species specific fungi while endophyte communities in C. jacea in both ranges are similar. We cultivated 46 unique and phylogenetically diverse endophytes. A majority of the seed endophytes resembled potential pathogens, while most root endophytes were not likely to be pathogenic. Only one endophyte was found in both roots and seeds, but was isolated from different plant species. Unexpectedly, seed endophyte diversity of southern C. stoebe populations was lower than of populations from the north, while the seed endophyte community composition of northern C. stoebe populations was significantly different southern C. stoebe as well as northern and southern C. jacea populations. Root endophyte diversity was considerably lower in C. stoebe than in C. jacea independent of plant and soil origin, but this difference disappeared when plants were grown in sterile soils. We conclude that the community composition of fungal endophytes not only differs between related plant species but also between populations of plants that expand their range compared to their native habitat. Our

  18. Seed and Root Endophytic Fungi in a Range Expanding and a Related Plant Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Geisen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is accelerating the spread of plants and their associated species to new ranges. The differences in range shift capacity of the various types of species may disrupt long-term co-evolved relationships especially those belowground, however, this may be less so for seed-borne endophytic microbes. We collected seeds and soil of the range-expanding Centaurea stoebe and the congeneric Centaurea jacea from three populations growing in Slovenia (native range of both Centaurea species and the Netherlands (expanded range of C. stoebe, native range of C. jacea. We isolated and identified endophytic fungi directly from seeds, as well as from roots of the plants grown in Slovenian, Dutch or sterilized soil to compare fungal endophyte composition. Furthermore, we investigated whether C. stoebe hosts a reduced community composition of endophytes in the expanded range due to release from plant-species specific fungi while endophyte communities in C. jacea in both ranges are similar. We cultivated 46 unique and phylogenetically diverse endophytes. A majority of the seed endophytes resembled potential pathogens, while most root endophytes were not likely to be pathogenic. Only one endophyte was found in both roots and seeds, but was isolated from different plant species. Unexpectedly, seed endophyte diversity of southern C. stoebe populations was lower than of populations from the north, while the seed endophyte community composition of northern C. stoebe populations was significantly different southern C. stoebe as well as northern and southern C. jacea populations. Root endophyte diversity was considerably lower in C. stoebe than in C. jacea independent of plant and soil origin, but this difference disappeared when plants were grown in sterile soils. We conclude that the community composition of fungal endophytes not only differs between related plant species but also between populations of plants that expand their range compared to their native

  19. Diversification Rates and the Evolution of Species Range Size Frequency Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Castiglione

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The geographic range sizes frequency distribution (RFD within clades is typically right-skewed with untransformed data, and bell-shaped or slightly left-skewed under the log-transformation. This means that most species within clades occupy diminutive ranges, whereas just a few species are truly widespread. A number of ecological and evolutionary explanations have been proposed to account for this pattern. Among the latter, much attention has been given to the issue of how extinction and speciation probabilities influence RFD. Numerous accounts now convincingly demonstrate that extinction rate decreases with range size, both in living and extinct taxa. The relationship between range size and speciation rate, though, is much less obvious, with either small or large ranged species being proposed to originate more daughter taxa. Herein, we used a large fossil database including 21 animal clades and more than 80,000 fossil occurrences distributed over more than 400 million years of marine metazoans (exclusive of vertebrates evolution, to test the relationship between extinction rate, speciation rate, and range size. As expected, we found that extinction rate almost linearly decreases with range size. In contrast, speciation rate peaks at the large (but not the largest end of the range size spectrum. This is consistent with the peripheral isolation mode of allopatric speciation being the main mechanism of species origination. The huge variation in phylogeny, fossilization potential, time of fossilization, and the overarching effect of mass extinctions suggest caution must be posed at generalizing our results, as individual clades may deviate significantly from the general pattern.

  20. The geography and ecology of plant speciation: range overlap and niche divergence in sister species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anacker, Brian L; Strauss, Sharon Y

    2014-03-07

    A goal of evolutionary biology is to understand the roles of geography and ecology in speciation. The recent shared ancestry of sister species can leave a major imprint on their geographical and ecological attributes, possibly revealing processes involved in speciation. We examined how ecological similarity, range overlap and range asymmetry are related to time since divergence of 71 sister species pairs in the California Floristic Province (CFP). We found that plants exhibit strikingly different age-range correlation patterns from those found for animals; the latter broadly support allopatric speciation as the primary mode of speciation. By contrast, plant sisters in the CFP were sympatric in 80% of cases and range sizes of sisters differed by a mean of 10-fold. Range overlap and range asymmetry were greatest in younger sisters. These results suggest that speciation mechanisms broadly grouped under 'budding' speciation, in which a larger ranged progenitor gives rise to a smaller ranged derivative species, are probably common. The ecological and reproductive similarity of sisters was significantly greater than that of sister-non-sister congeners for every trait assessed. However, shifts in at least one trait were present in 93% of the sister pairs; habitat and soil shifts were especially common. Ecological divergence did not increase with range overlap contrary to expectations under character displacement in sympatry. Our results suggest that vicariant speciation is more ubiquitous in animals than plants, perhaps owing to the sensitivity of plants to fine-scale environmental heterogeneity. Despite high levels of range overlap, ecological shifts in the process of budding speciation may result in low rates of fine-scale spatial co-occurrence. These results have implications for ecological studies of trait evolution and community assembly; despite high levels of sympatry, sister taxa and potentially other close relatives, may be missing from local communities.

  1. Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matías, Luis; Jump, Alistair S

    2015-02-01

    Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

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    Risto K Heikkinen

    Full Text Available Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina and one generalist (Issoria lathonia. Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity, with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

  3. Using a data-constrained model of home range establishment to predict abundance in spatially heterogeneous habitats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Vanderwel

    Full Text Available Mechanistic modelling approaches that explicitly translate from individual-scale resource selection to the distribution and abundance of a larger population may be better suited to predicting responses to spatially heterogeneous habitat alteration than commonly-used regression models. We developed an individual-based model of home range establishment that, given a mapped distribution of local habitat values, estimates species abundance by simulating the number and position of viable home ranges that can be maintained across a spatially heterogeneous area. We estimated parameters for this model from data on red-backed vole (Myodes gapperi abundances in 31 boreal forest sites in Ontario, Canada. The home range model had considerably more support from these data than both non-spatial regression models based on the same original habitat variables and a mean-abundance null model. It had nearly equivalent support to a non-spatial regression model that, like the home range model, scaled an aggregate measure of habitat value from local associations with habitat resources. The home range and habitat-value regression models gave similar predictions for vole abundance under simulations of light- and moderate-intensity partial forest harvesting, but the home range model predicted lower abundances than the regression model under high-intensity disturbance. Empirical regression-based approaches for predicting species abundance may overlook processes that affect habitat use by individuals, and often extrapolate poorly to novel habitat conditions. Mechanistic home range models that can be parameterized against abundance data from different habitats permit appropriate scaling from individual- to population-level habitat relationships, and can potentially provide better insights into responses to disturbance.

  4. Incorporating latitudinal and central–marginal trends in assessing genetic variation across species ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo

    2012-01-01

    The genetic variation across a species’ range is an important factor in speciation and conservation, yet searching for general patterns and underlying causes remains challenging. While the majority of comparisons between central and marginal populations have revealed a general central–marginal (C-M) decline in genetic diversity, others show no clear pattern. Similarly...

  5. Predicting Future European Breeding Distributions of British Seabird Species under Climate Change and Unlimited/No Dispersal Scenarios

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    Deborah J.F. Russell

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding which traits make species vulnerable to climatic change and predicting future distributions permits conservation efforts to be focused on the most vulnerable species and the most appropriate sites. Here, we combine climate envelope models with predicted bioclimatic data from two emission scenarios leading up to 2100, to predict European breeding distributions of 23 seabird species that currently breed in the British Isles. Assuming unlimited dispersal, some species would be “winners” (increase the size of their range, but over 65% would lose range, some by up to 80%. These “losers” have a high vulnerability to low prey availability, and a northerly distribution meaning they would lack space to move into. Under the worst-case scenario of no dispersal, species are predicted to lose between 25% and 100% of their range, so dispersal ability is a key constraint on future range sizes. More globally, the results indicate, based on foraging ecology, which seabird species are likely to be most affected by climatic change. Neither of the emissions scenarios used in this study is extreme, yet they generate very different predictions for some species, illustrating that even small decreases in emissions could yield large benefits for conservation.

  6. Pleistocene range shifts, refugia and the origin of widespread species in western Palaearctic water beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Vázquez, David; Bilton, David T; Foster, Garth N; Ribera, I

    2017-09-01

    Quaternary glacial cycles drove major shifts in both the extent and location of the geographical ranges of many organisms. During glacial maxima, large areas of central and northern Europe were inhospitable to temperate species, and these areas are generally assumed to have been recolonized during interglacials by range expansions from Mediterranean refugia. An alternative is that this recolonization was from non-Mediterranean refugia, in central Europe or western Asia, but data on the origin of widespread central and north European species remain fragmentary, especially for insects. We studied three widely distributed lineages of freshwater beetles (the Platambus maculatus complex, the Hydraena gracilis complex, and the genus Oreodytes), all restricted to running waters and including both narrowly distributed southern endemics and widespread European species, some with distributions spanning the Palearctic. Our main goal was to determine the role of the Pleistocene glaciations in shaping the diversification and current distribution of these lineages. We sequenced four mitochondrial and two nuclear genes in populations drawn from across the ranges of these taxa, and used Bayesian probabilities and Maximum Likelihood to reconstruct their phylogenetic relationships, age and geographical origin. Our results suggest that all extant species in these groups are of Pleistocene origin. In the H. gracilis complex, the widespread European H. gracilis has experienced a rapid, recent range expansion from northern Anatolia, to occupy almost the whole of Europe. However, in the other two groups widespread central and northern European taxa appear to originate from central Asia, rather than the Mediterranean. These widespread species of eastern origin typically have peripherally isolated forms in the southern Mediterranean peninsulas, which may be remnants of earlier expansion-diversification cycles or result from incipient isolation of populations during the most recent Holocene

  7. Hybridization between two cestode species and its consequences for intermediate host range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrich Tina

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many parasites show an extraordinary degree of host specificity, even though a narrow range of host species reduces the likelihood of successful transmission. In this study, we evaluate the genetic basis of host specificity and transmission success of experimental F1 hybrids from two closely related tapeworm species (Schistocephalus solidus and S. pungitii, both highly specific to their respective vertebrate second intermediate hosts (three- and nine-spined sticklebacks, respectively. Methods We used an in vitro breeding system to hybridize Schistocephalus solidus and S. pungitii; hybridization rate was quantified using microsatellite markers. We measured several fitness relevant traits in pure lines of the parental parasite species as well as in their hybrids: hatching rates, infection rates in the copepod first host, and infection rates and growth in the two species of stickleback second hosts. Results We show that the parasites can hybridize in the in vitro system, although the proportion of self-fertilized offspring was higher in the heterospecific breeding pairs than in the control pure parental species. Hybrids have a lower hatching rate, but do not show any disadvantages in infection of copepods. In fish, hybrids were able to infect both stickleback species with equal frequency, whereas the pure lines were only able to infect their normal host species. Conclusions Although not yet documented in nature, our study shows that hybridization in Schistocephalus spp. is in principle possible and that, in respect to their expanded host range, the hybrids are fitter. Further studies are needed to find the reason for the maintenance of the species boundaries in wild populations.

  8. Hybridization between two cestode species and its consequences for intermediate host range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrich, Tina; Benesh, Daniel P; Kalbe, Martin

    2013-02-07

    Many parasites show an extraordinary degree of host specificity, even though a narrow range of host species reduces the likelihood of successful transmission. In this study, we evaluate the genetic basis of host specificity and transmission success of experimental F(1) hybrids from two closely related tapeworm species (Schistocephalus solidus and S. pungitii), both highly specific to their respective vertebrate second intermediate hosts (three- and nine-spined sticklebacks, respectively). We used an in vitro breeding system to hybridize Schistocephalus solidus and S. pungitii; hybridization rate was quantified using microsatellite markers. We measured several fitness relevant traits in pure lines of the parental parasite species as well as in their hybrids: hatching rates, infection rates in the copepod first host, and infection rates and growth in the two species of stickleback second hosts. We show that the parasites can hybridize in the in vitro system, although the proportion of self-fertilized offspring was higher in the heterospecific breeding pairs than in the control pure parental species. Hybrids have a lower hatching rate, but do not show any disadvantages in infection of copepods. In fish, hybrids were able to infect both stickleback species with equal frequency, whereas the pure lines were only able to infect their normal host species. Although not yet documented in nature, our study shows that hybridization in Schistocephalus spp. is in principle possible and that, in respect to their expanded host range, the hybrids are fitter. Further studies are needed to find the reason for the maintenance of the species boundaries in wild populations.

  9. SeqAPASS: Sequence alignment to predict across-species ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efforts to shift the toxicity testing paradigm from whole organism studies to those focused on the initiation of toxicity and relevant pathways have led to increased utilization of in vitro and in silico methods. Hence the emergence of high through-put screening (HTS) programs, such as U.S. EPA ToxCast, and application of the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework for identifying and defining biological key events triggered upon perturbation of molecular initiating events and leading to adverse outcomes occuring at a level of organization relevant for risk assessment [1]. With these recent initiatives to harness the power of “the pathway” in describing and evaluating toxicity comes the need to extrapolate data beyond the model species. Sequence alignment to predict across-species susceptibilty (SeqAPASS) is a web-based tool that allows the user to begin to understand how broadly HTS data or AOP constructs may plausibly be extrapolated across species, while describing the relative intrinsic susceptibiltiy of different taxa to chemicals with known modes of action (e.g., pharmaceuticals and pesticides). The tool rapidly and strategically assesses available molecular target information to describe protein sequence similarity at the primary amino acid sequence, conserved domain, and individual amino acid residue levels. This in silico approach to species extrapolation was designed to automate and streamline the relatively complex and time-consuming process of co

  10. Adaptive evolution to novel predators facilitates the evolution of damselfly species range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siepielski, Adam M; Beaulieu, Jeremy M

    2017-04-01

    Most species have evolved adaptations to reduce the chances of predation. In many cases, adaptations to coexist with one predator generate tradeoffs in the ability to live with other predators. Consequently, the ability to live with one predator may limit the geographic distributions of species, such that adaptive evolution to coexist with novel predators may facilitate range shifts. In a case study with Enallagma damselflies, we used a comparative phylogenetic approach to test the hypothesis that adaptive evolution to live with a novel predator facilitates range size shifts. Our results suggest that the evolution of Enallagma shifting from living in ancestral lakes with fish as top predators, to living in lakes with dragonflies as predators, may have facilitated an increase in their range sizes. This increased range size likely arose because lakes with dragonflies were widespread, but unavailable as a habitat throughout much of the evolutionary history of Enallagma because they were historically maladapted to coexist with dragonfly predators. Additionally, the traits that have evolved as defenses against dragonflies also likely enhanced damselfly dispersal abilities. While many factors underlie the evolutionary history of species ranges, these results suggest a role for the evolution of predator-prey interactions. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Multiple dispersal vectors drive range expansion in an invasive marine species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark F; Sherman, Craig D H; Lee, Randall S; Bott, Nathan J; Hirst, Alastair J

    2016-10-01

    The establishment and subsequent spread of invasive species is widely recognized as one of the most threatening processes contributing to global biodiversity loss. This is especially true for marine and estuarine ecosystems, which have experienced significant increases in the number of invasive species with the increase in global maritime trade. Understanding the rate and mechanisms of range expansion is therefore of significant interest to ecologists and conservation managers alike. Using a combination of population genetic surveys, environmental DNA (eDNA) plankton sampling and hydrodynamic modelling, we examined the patterns of introduction of the predatory Northern Pacific seastar (Asterias amurensis) and pathways of secondary spread within southeast Australia. Genetic surveys across the invasive range reveal some genetic divergence between the two main invasive regions and no evidence of ongoing gene flow, a pattern that is consistent with the establishment of the second invasive region via a human-mediated translocation event. In contrast, hydrodynamic modelling combined with eDNA plankton sampling demonstrated that the establishment of range expansion populations within a region is consistent with natural larval dispersal and recruitment. Our results suggest that both anthropogenic and natural dispersal vectors have played an important role in the range expansion of this species in Australia. The multiple modes of spread combined with high levels of fecundity and a long larval duration in A. amurensis suggests it is likely to continue its range expansion and significantly impact Australian marine ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo

    2009-01-01

    Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations of past refugia and migration pathways, or to propose...... the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling and using inadequate methods for hindcasting CEMs may well entail a cascade of errors and naïve ecological and evolutionary inferences. We should also push integrative research lines linking macroecology, physiology, population biology, palaeontology......, evolutionary biology and CEMs for a better understanding of niche dynamics across space and time....

  13. Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

  14. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shryock, Daniel F.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Esque, Todd C.

    2014-01-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.

  15. Perineuronal nets in subcortical auditory nuclei of four rodent species with differing hearing ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, Nichole L; Schofield, Brett R

    2017-12-26

    Perineuronal nets (PNs) are aggregates of extracellular matrix molecules that surround some neurons in the brain. While PNs occur widely across many cortical areas, subcortical PNs are especially associated with motor and auditory systems. The auditory system has recently been suggested as an ideal model system for studying PNs and their functions. However, descriptions of PNs in subcortical auditory areas vary, and it is unclear whether the variation reflects species differences or differences in staining techniques. Here, we used two staining techniques (one lectin stain and one antibody stain) to examine PN distribution in the subcortical auditory system of four different species: guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus), mice (Mus musculus, CBA/CaJ strain), Long-Evans rats (Rattus norvegicus), and naked mole-rats (Heterocephalus glaber). We found that some auditory nuclei exhibit dramatic differences in PN distribution among species while other nuclei have consistent PN distributions. We also found that PNs exhibit molecular heterogeneity, and can stain with either marker individually or with both. PNs within a given nucleus can be heterogeneous or homogenous in their staining patterns. We compared PN staining across the frequency axes of tonotopically organized nuclei and among species with different hearing ranges. PNs were distributed non-uniformly across some nuclei, but only rarely did this appear related to the tonotopic axis. PNs were prominent in all four species; we found no systematic relationship between the hearing range and the number, staining patterns or distribution of PNs in the auditory nuclei. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  17. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical...

  18. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

    2015-10-01

    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  19. High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Jesper; Martín González, Ana M.; Maruyama, Pietro K.

    2016-01-01

    with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird-plant mutualistic...... networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird...

  20. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  1. Predicted rarity-weighted richness, a new tool to prioritize sites for species representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albuquerque, Fábio; Beier, Paul

    2016-11-01

    Lack of biodiversity data is a major impediment to prioritizing sites for species representation. Because comprehensive species data are not available in any planning area, planners often use surrogates (such as vegetation communities, or mapped occurrences of a well-inventoried taxon) to prioritize sites. We propose and demonstrate the effectiveness of predicted rarity-weighted richness (PRWR) as a surrogate in situations where species inventories may be available for a portion of the planning area. Use of PRWR as a surrogate involves several steps. First, rarity-weighted richness (RWR) is calculated from species inventories for a q% subset of sites. Then random forest models are used to model RWR as a function of freely available environmental variables for that q% subset. This function is then used to calculate PRWR for all sites (including those for which no species inventories are available), and PRWR is used to prioritize all sites. We tested PRWR on plant and bird datasets, using the species accumulation index to measure efficiency of PRWR. Sites with the highest PRWR represented species with median efficiency of 56% (range 32%-77% across six datasets) when q = 20%, and with median efficiency of 39% (range 20%-63%) when q = 10%. An efficiency of 56% means that selecting sites in order of PRWR rank was 56% as effective as having full knowledge of species distributions in PRWR's ability to improve on the number of species represented in the same number of randomly selected sites. Our results suggest that PRWR may be able to help prioritize sites to represent species if a planner has species inventories for 10%-20% of the sites in the planning area.

  2. Pathogen-host associations and predicted range shifts of human monkeypox in response to climate change in central Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henri A Thomassen

    Full Text Available Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV, an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX. Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC, and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.

  3. Pathogen-host associations and predicted range shifts of human monkeypox in response to climate change in central Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomassen, Henri A; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A G; Mulembakani, Prime M; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C; Kisalu, Neville K; Kinkela, Timothée L; Fair, Joseph N; Wolfe, Nathan D; Shongo, Robert L; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Smith, Thomas B; Rimoin, Anne W

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.

  4. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2014-03-27

    The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

  5. Separation of the bioclimatic spaces of Himalayan tree rhododendron species predicted by ensemble suitability models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sailesh Ranjitkar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The tree rhododendrons include the most widely distributed Himalayan Rhododendron species belonging to the subsection Arborea. Distributions of two members of this sub-species were modelled using bioclimatic data for current conditions (1950–2000. A subset of the least correlated bioclimatic variables was used for ecological niche modelling (ENM. We used an ENM ensemble method in the BiodiversityR R-package to map the suitable climatic space for tree rhododendrons based on 217 point location records. Ensemble bioclimatic models for tree rhododendrons had high predictive power with bioclimatic variables, which also separated the climatic spaces for the two species. Tree rhododendrons were found occurring in a wide range of climate and the distributional limits were associated with isothermality, temperature ranges, temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the warmest quarter of the year. The most suitable climatic space for tree rhododendrons was predicted to be in western Yunnan, China, with suitability declining towards the west and east. Its occurrence in a wide range of climatic settings with highly dissected habitats speaks to the adaptive capacity of the species, which might open up future options for their conservation planning in regions where they are listed as threatened.

  6. The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of Ailanthus altissima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Albright; Hao Chen; Lijun Chen; Qinfeng Guo

    2010-01-01

    Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US...

  7. Weights, hematology and serum chemistry of seven species of free-ranging tropical pelagic seabirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Work, Thierry M.

    1996-01-01

    I established reference values for weight, hematology, and serum chemistry for seven species of free-ranging Hawaiian tropical pelagic seabirds comprising three orders (Procellariiformes, Pelecaniformes, Charadriiformes) and six families (Procellariidae, Phaethontidae, Diomedeidae, Sulidae, Fregatidae, and Laridae). Species examined included 84 Hawaiian darkrumped petrels (Pterodoma phaeopygia), 90 wedge-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus pacificus), 151 Laysan albatrosses (Diomedea immutabilis), 69 red-footed boobies (Sula sula), 154 red-tailed tropicbirds (Phaeton rubricauda), 90 great frigatebirds (Fregata minor), and 72 sooty terns (Sterna fuscata). Hematocrit, total plasma solids, total and differential white cell counts, serum glucose, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, total protein, albumin, globulin, aspartate aminotransferase and creatinine phosphokinase were analyzed. Among and within species, hematology and chemistry values varied with age, sex, season, and island of collection. Despite this variation, order-wide trends were observed.

  8. Parallel Mutations Result in a Wide Range of Cooperation and Community Consequences in a Two-Species Bacterial Consortium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M Douglas

    Full Text Available Multi-species microbial communities play a critical role in human health, industry, and waste remediation. Recently, the evolution of synthetic consortia in the laboratory has enabled adaptation to be addressed in the context of interacting species. Using an engineered bacterial consortium, we repeatedly evolved cooperative genotypes and examined both the predictability of evolution and the phenotypes that determine community dynamics. Eight Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strains evolved methionine excretion sufficient to support growth of an Escherichia coli methionine auxotroph, from whom they required excreted growth substrates. Non-synonymous mutations in metA, encoding homoserine trans-succinylase (HTS, were detected in each evolved S. enterica methionine cooperator and were shown to be necessary for cooperative consortia growth. Molecular modeling was used to predict that most of the non-synonymous mutations slightly increase the binding affinity for HTS homodimer formation. Despite this genetic parallelism and trend of increasing protein binding stability, these metA alleles gave rise to a wide range of phenotypic diversity in terms of individual versus group benefit. The cooperators with the highest methionine excretion permitted nearly two-fold faster consortia growth and supported the highest fraction of E. coli, yet also had the slowest individual growth rates compared to less cooperative strains. Thus, although the genetic basis of adaptation was quite similar across independent origins of cooperative phenotypes, quantitative measurements of metabolite production were required to predict either the individual-level growth consequences or how these propagate to community-level behavior.

  9. Parallel Mutations Result in a Wide Range of Cooperation and Community Consequences in a Two-Species Bacterial Consortium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Sarah M; Chubiz, Lon M; Harcombe, William R; Ytreberg, F Marty; Marx, Christopher J

    2016-01-01

    Multi-species microbial communities play a critical role in human health, industry, and waste remediation. Recently, the evolution of synthetic consortia in the laboratory has enabled adaptation to be addressed in the context of interacting species. Using an engineered bacterial consortium, we repeatedly evolved cooperative genotypes and examined both the predictability of evolution and the phenotypes that determine community dynamics. Eight Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strains evolved methionine excretion sufficient to support growth of an Escherichia coli methionine auxotroph, from whom they required excreted growth substrates. Non-synonymous mutations in metA, encoding homoserine trans-succinylase (HTS), were detected in each evolved S. enterica methionine cooperator and were shown to be necessary for cooperative consortia growth. Molecular modeling was used to predict that most of the non-synonymous mutations slightly increase the binding affinity for HTS homodimer formation. Despite this genetic parallelism and trend of increasing protein binding stability, these metA alleles gave rise to a wide range of phenotypic diversity in terms of individual versus group benefit. The cooperators with the highest methionine excretion permitted nearly two-fold faster consortia growth and supported the highest fraction of E. coli, yet also had the slowest individual growth rates compared to less cooperative strains. Thus, although the genetic basis of adaptation was quite similar across independent origins of cooperative phenotypes, quantitative measurements of metabolite production were required to predict either the individual-level growth consequences or how these propagate to community-level behavior.

  10. Compensation for the distortion in satellite laser range predictions due to varying pulse travel times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paunonen, Matti

    1993-01-01

    A method for compensating for the effect of the varying travel time of a transmitted laser pulse to a satellite is described. The 'observed minus predicted' range differences then appear to be linear, which makes data screening or use in range gating more effective.

  11. Congruence between geographic range distribution and local competitive ability of two Lupinus species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milla, Rubén; Escudero, Adrián; Iriondo, José M

    2011-09-01

    In spite of its relevance, we lack rigorous evidence on whether widespread species are superior local competitors compared with coexisting narrowly distributed congeners. We ran a competition experiment between two lupins that coexist at their shared geographic range: Lupinus angustifolius L. (widespread) and L. gredensis Gandoger (narrow endemic). • We set up mixed and monospecific populations of the two species, monitored survival and fecundity until the death of the whole cohorts, and measured variables of putative relevance to the competition process. We used aster modeling to address lifetime individual fitness and generalized linear models to assess the effect of species, type of competition, and competition environment on a suite of competition indices. • Lupinus angustifolius showed higher fitness and exerted a stronger competitive effect on its heterospecific neighbors. This occurred through higher fecundity late in the season rather than through differential survival at earlier stages. • This is the first evidence of lifetime superior competitive potential of a widespread species over a narrow endemic congener. This competitive response might scale up to the geographic distribution range and may partially explain the limited distribution of the narrow endemic. Extension to other carefully selected study cases and more in-depth field experiments may help to assess the generality of this pattern and understand how local processes translate into geographic patterns.

  12. High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas.

    OpenAIRE

    Sonne, J; Martín González, AM; Maruyama, PK; Sandel, B.; Vizentin-Bugoni, J; Schleuning, M.; Abrahamczyk, S.; Alarcón, R.; Araujo, AC; Araújo, FP; Mendes de Azevedo, S; Baquero, AC; Cotton, PA; Ingversen, TT; Kohler, G.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization,...

  13. Interaction of species traits and environmental disturbance predicts invasion success of aquatic microorganisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvira Mächler

    Full Text Available Factors such as increased mobility of humans, global trade and climate change are affecting the range of many species, and cause large-scale translocations of species beyond their native range. Many introduced species have a strong negative influence on the new local environment and lead to high economic costs. There is a strong interest to understand why some species are successful in invading new environments and others not. Most of our understanding and generalizations thereof, however, are based on studies of plants and animals, and little is known on invasion processes of microorganisms. We conducted a microcosm experiment to understand factors promoting the success of biological invasions of aquatic microorganisms. In a controlled lab experiment, protist and rotifer species originally isolated in North America invaded into a natural, field-collected community of microorganisms of European origin. To identify the importance of environmental disturbances on invasion success, we either repeatedly disturbed the local patches, or kept them as undisturbed controls. We measured both short-term establishment and long-term invasion success, and correlated it with species-specific life-history traits. We found that environmental disturbances significantly affected invasion success. Depending on the invading species' identity, disturbances were either promoting or decreasing invasion success. The interaction between habitat disturbance and species identity was especially pronounced for long-term invasion success. Growth rate was the most important trait promoting invasion success, especially when the species invaded into a disturbed local community. We conclude that neither species traits nor environmental factors alone conclusively predict invasion success, but an integration of both of them is necessary.

  14. Do species differ in their ability to coexist with the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus? A comparison between two distinct invaded ranges and a native range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Hejda

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The community-level impacts of invasive plants are likely to vary depending on the character of native species of the target communities and their ability to thrive within the stands of the dominant alien invader. Therefore, I examined the response of native species richness to the cover of the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus in two distinct invaded ranges: Czech Republic (Central Europe and New Zealand. I compared the relation between native species richness and the cover of the dominant alien L. polyphyllus with that in its native range, Pacific Northwest, USA.In the native range, I found no response of native species richness to the cover of L. polyphyllus. In the Czech Republic (central Europe, the richness of native species related to it negativelly, but the relation was only marginally significant. Contrary to that, the richness of species native to New Zealand related to the cover of L. polyphyllus strongly negatively and the negative relation was significantly stronger than that of species native to Europe.Of the two invaded ranges, species native to New Zealand have been documented to be much more vulnerable to the conditions associated with the invasion and dominance of L. polyphyllus, compared to species native to central Europe. This principle has been shown both across these two invaded ranges and in New Zealand, where the aliens of european origin successfully coexist with the dominant invasive alien L. polyphyllus. Similarly, species in the native range of L. polyphyllus showed no relation to its cover, indicating their ability to thrive even in dense stands of this dominant species.

  15. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E.; Brookshaw, A.; Clark, R. T.; Dunstone, N.; Eade, R.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Knight, J. R.; Lea, D. J.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A.; Martin, M.; Peterson, A. K.; Smith, D.; Vellinga, M.; Wallace, E.; Waters, J.; Williams, A.

    2014-04-01

    Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

  16. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eade, R.; Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E.; Brookshaw, A.; Clark, R. T.; Dunstone, N.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Knight, J.; Lea, D. J.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A. V.; Martin, M.; Peterson, A.; Smith, D.; Vellinga, M.; Wallace, E.; Waters, J.; Williams, A.

    2014-12-01

    Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

  17. Characterization of a broad range antibacterial substance from a new Bacillus species isolated from Amazon basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motta, Amanda S; Cannavan, Fabiana S; Tsai, Siu-Mui; Brandelli, Adriano

    2007-10-01

    A Bacillus sp. strain producing a bacteriocin-like substance was characterized by biochemical profiling and 16S rDNA sequencing. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that this strain has low sequence similarity with most Bacillus spp., suggesting a new species was isolated. The antimicrobial activity was detected starting at the exponential growth phase, and maximum activity was observed at stationary phase. The substance was inhibitory to a broad range of indicator strains, including pathogenic and food spoilage bacteria such as Listeria monocytogenes, B. cereus, Aeromonas hydrophila, Erwinia carotovora, Pasteurella haemolytica, Salmonella Gallinarum, among other. The antibacterial substance was stable over a wide pH range, but it was sensitive to pronase E and lipase. The antibacterial substance was bactericidal and bacteriolytic to L. monocytogenes and B. cereus at 160 AU ml(-1). The identification of a broad range bacteriocin-like inhibitory substance active against L. monocytogenes addresses an important aspect of food protection against pathogens and spoilage microorganisms.

  18. First records of three species of Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Coleóptera: Belidae in Argentina and use of a predictive model to compare their potential distribution with the range of their host-plant, Araucaria araucana Primera cita de las tres especies de Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Coleóptera: Belidae en Argentina y uso de un modelo predictivo para comparar su distribución potencial con el rango de su planta huésped, la Araucaria araucana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. FERRER

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The first records of the three known species of Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Belidae: Oxycoryninae in Argentina are reported, and added to their known distribution in Chile. These weevils are of interest because of their association with the pehuén or monkey puzzle tree, Araucaria araucana, a species of conservation concern. Their distribution data are of value for the protection of biodiversity in natural areas of Patagonia. The potential distribution of Oxycraspedus, as predicted by a model using bioclimatic variables, is coincident as expected, with the geographic range of the araucaria host-plantSe reportan por primera vez en Argentina las tres especies de Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Belidae: Oxycoryninae y se añaden a su distribución en Chile. Estos gorgojos son de interés debido a su asociación con el pehuén Araucaria araucana, una especie de gran interés en temas de conservación. Los datos sobre su distribución son valiosos para proteger la biodiversidad en áreas de la Patagonia. La distribución potencial de Oxycraspedus predicha por un modelo a partir de variables bioclimáticas, es coincidente, como se esperaba, con el rango geográfico de su planta huésped, la araucaria

  19. Single nucleotide polymorphisms across a species' range: implications for conservation studies of Pacific salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeb, L W; Templin, W D; Sato, S; Abe, S; Warheit, K; Park, J Y; Seeb, J E

    2011-03-01

    Studies of the oceanic and near-shore distributions of Pacific salmon, whose migrations typically span thousands of kilometres, have become increasingly valuable in the presence of climate change, increasing hatchery production and potentially high rates of bycatch in offshore fisheries. Genetics data offer considerable insights into both the migratory routes as well as the evolutionary histories of the species. However, these types of studies require extensive data sets from spawning populations originating from across the species' range. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been particularly amenable for multinational applications because they are easily shared, require little interlaboratory standardization and can be assayed through increasingly efficient technologies. Here, we discuss the development of a data set for 114 populations of chum salmon through a collaboration among North American and Asian researchers, termed PacSNP. PacSNP is focused on developing the database and applying it to problems of international interest. A data set spanning the entire range of species provides a unique opportunity to examine patterns of variability, and we review issues associated with SNP development. We found evidence of ascertainment bias within the data set, variable linkage relationships between SNPs associated with ancestral groupings and outlier loci with alleles associated with latitude. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Species identification, host range and diversity of Cecidophyopsis mites (Acari: Trombidiformes) infesting Ribes in Latvia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stalažs, Arturs; Moročko-Bičevska, Inga

    2016-06-01

    Cecidophyopsis mites are important pests in all cultivation regions of Ribes causing bud galls and sterility. Despite their economic importance, the knowledge on Cecidophyopsis species infesting Ribes in various areas of the world is still deficient. The present study was carried out to identify Cecidophyopsis species occurring in Latvia on cultivated and wild Ribes, to assess their host range and gain insight into the genetic diversity of these insufficiently studied pests by use of multiplex PCR, rDNA sequences and morphological characters. Cecidophyopsis alpina, C. aurea, C. spicata and C. selachodon were detected to occur in all surveyed habitats. For the first time, C. alpina was identified on blackcurrants and redcurrants, and C. aurea on redcurrants, blackcurrants and alpine currants. The presence of C. ribis was not confirmed with molecular tools during this study. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the presence of four Cecidophyopsis species identified by multiplex PCR. A close phylogenetic relatedness was found for C. aurea and C. alpina, and for C. ribis and C. spicata highlighting the necessity for additional studies. Our findings suggest a need to consider also other Cecidophyopsis species besides C. ribis in breeding programs for host resistance to mites.

  1. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. A new species of Mirovia (Coniferales, Miroviaceae) from the Lower Cretaceous of the Iberian Ranges (Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez, B. [University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom). School of Earth Science

    2002-12-01

    The Lower-Middle Albian coaly clay bed of the Escucha Formation, which is exposed at Rubielos de Mora (eastern Iberian Ranges, Spain), contains a diverse fossil plant assemblage. Among the taxa present in this layer, Mirovia gothanii Gomez sp. nov. differs from other species of the genus by its greater leaf length, margins typically overhanging the depressed stomatal groove, a single short, blunt, papilla borne by each subsidiary cell, non-stomatal cells inside the groove and margins, and a higher number of resin ducts in the mesophyll. Morphological study of the well-preserved cuticles demonstrates that the species also occurs in Lower Cretaceous coals of Santa Maria de Meia (Pyrenees, Spain) where Gothan (1954) described it as Sciadopitytes sp. Both localities constitute the southernmost extent of the genus in Laurasia when the family was likely to have reached its climax in terms of abundance and diversity.

  3. Range expansion and population dynamics of an invasive species: the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spencer N Scheidt

    Full Text Available Invasive species offer ecologists the opportunity to study the factors governing species distributions and population growth. The Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto serves as a model organism for invasive spread because of the wealth of abundance records and the recent development of the invasion. We tested whether a set of environmental variables were related to the carrying capacities and growth rates of individual populations by modeling the growth trajectories of individual populations of the Collared-Dove using Breeding Bird Survey (BBS and Christmas Bird Count (CBC data. Depending on the fit of our growth models, carrying capacity and growth rate parameters were extracted and modeled using historical, geographical, land cover and climatic predictors. Model averaging and individual variable importance weights were used to assess the strength of these predictors. The specific variables with the greatest support in our models differed between data sets, which may be the result of temporal and spatial differences between the BBS and CBC. However, our results indicate that both carrying capacity and population growth rates are related to developed land cover and temperature, while growth rates may also be influenced by dispersal patterns along the invasion front. Model averaged multivariate models explained 35-48% and 41-46% of the variation in carrying capacities and population growth rates, respectively. Our results suggest that widespread species invasions can be evaluated within a predictable population ecology framework. Land cover and climate both have important effects on population growth rates and carrying capacities of Collared-Dove populations. Efforts to model aspects of population growth of this invasive species were more successful than attempts to model static abundance patterns, pointing to a potentially fruitful avenue for the development of improved invasive distribution models.

  4. Genetics and Conservation of Plant Species of Extremely Narrow Geographic Range

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    Sofia Solórzano

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The endemic plant species with extremely narrow geographical range (<100 km2 often have few populations of small size and tend to be more vulnerable to extinction by genetic drift and inbreeding effects. For these species, we tested if intraspecific genetic diversity can be applied to identify conservation priorities. The biological model was Mammillaria albiflora—a Mexican cactus that numbers ~1000 individuals distributed in four nearby patches covering 4.3 km2. A total of 96 individuals were genotyped with 10 microsatellite loci to describe the genetic substructure and diversity. There is significant population substructure: the genetic diversity is distributed in three genetic neighbors and varies among the patches, the genotypes are not randomly distributed and three genetic barriers restrict the gene flow. The current population size is 15 times smaller than in the past. The restricted gene flow and genetic drift are the processes that have shaped population substructure. To conserve the genetic diversity of this cactus we recommend that two patches, which are not private property, be legally protected; to include M. albiflora in the Red List Species of Mexico in the category of extinction risk; and a legal propagation program may help to diminish the illegal harvesting.

  5. Secreted effectors in Toxoplasma gondii and related species: determinants of host range and pathogenesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, E D; Adomako-Ankomah, Y; Boyle, J P

    2015-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed the discovery of a number of secreted proteins in Toxoplasma gondii that play important roles in host–pathogen interactions and parasite virulence, particularly in the mouse model. However, the role that these proteins play in driving the unique features of T. gondii compared to some of its nearest apicomplexan relatives (Hammondia hammondi and Neospora caninum) is unknown. These unique features include distinct dissemination characteristics in vivo and a vast host range. In this review we comprehensively survey what is known about disease outcome, the host response and host range for T. gondii, H. hammondi, and N. caninum. We then review what is presently known about recently identified secreted virulence effectors in these three genetically related, but phenotypically distinct, species. Finally we exploit the existence of genome sequences for these three organisms and discuss what is known about the presence, and functionality, of key T. gondii effectors in these three species. PMID:25655311

  6. Description of a new species of Cnemaspis (Squamata: Gekkonidae) from Knuckles Range of Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batuwita, Sudesh; Udugampala, Sampath

    2017-04-12

    A new species of Cnemaspis Strauch is described from Knuckles Range of Sri Lanka. This new species had been previously confused with Cnemaspis podihuna Deraniyagala. Cnemaspis kandambyi sp. nov. closely resembles C. podihuna and C. molligodai Wickramasinghe & Munindradasa. Cnemaspis kandambyi sp. nov. differs from C. podihuna by having 7-8 (versus 3-6) unpored scales in each side of the precloacal-femoral pores row, lacking (versus having) an internasal scale, body (axilla to groin) relatively long 47.7-48.3 (versus 38.1-38.7)% of SVL and dorsum dark brown (versus bright yellow). Cnemaspis kandambyi sp. nov. also distinguished from C. molligodai by having 4 (versus 5) precloacal pores, 5-6 (versus 7-9) femoral pores on each side, precloacal pores not in an inverted V-shaped arrangement (versus in inverted V-shaped arrangement), lacking (versus having) a distinct black marking on nape and a black lateral stripe begins behind eye extends laterally beyond the origin of forearm (versus not extending beyond the origin of forearm). Additionally, Cnemaspis kandambyi sp. nov. and C. molligodai show discrete distribution: former restricted to Knuckles Range and the latter confined to Lowland wet zone of Sri Lanka. We confirm that, no type material of Cnemaspis podihuna survive in the current collection of the National Museum of Sri Lanka.

  7. Reduced mandibular range of motion in Duchenne muscular dystrophy : Predictive factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bruggen, H. W.; Van Den Engel-Hoek, L.; Steenks, M. H.; Bronkhorst, E. M.; Creugers, N. H J; de Groot, I. J M; Kalaykova, S. I.

    2015-01-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) experience negative effects upon feeding and oral health. We aimed to determine whether the mandibular range of motion in DMD is impaired and to explore predictive factors for the active maximum mouth opening (aMMO). 23 patients with DMD (mean age 16·7

  8. Reduced mandibular range of motion in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: predictive factors.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruggen, H.W. van; Engel-Hoek, L. van den; Steenks, M.H.; Bronkhorst, E.M.; Creugers, N.H.J.; Groot, I.J.M. de; Kalaykova, S.I.

    2015-01-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) experience negative effects upon feeding and oral health. We aimed to determine whether the mandibular range of motion in DMD is impaired and to explore predictive factors for the active maximum mouth opening (aMMO). 23 patients with DMD (mean age 16.7

  9. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  10. Range maps of terrestrial species in the interior Columbia River basin and northern portions of the Klamath and Great Basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce G. Marcot; Barbara C. Wales; Rick. Demmer

    2003-01-01

    Current range distribution maps are presented for 14 invertebrate, 26 amphibian, 26 reptile, 339 bird, and 125 mammal species and selected subspecies (530 total taxa) of the interior Columbia River basin and northern portions of the Klamath and Great Basins in the United States. Also presented are maps of historical ranges of 3 bird and 10 mammal species, and 6 maps of...

  11. Predicted effects of toxicant mixtures are confirmed by changes in fish species assemblages in Ohio, USA, rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick

    2006-04-01

    The purposes of this study were to investigate whether exposure to toxicant mixtures is associated with fish assemblage characteristics in the field and to describe the relationships between predicted chronic and acute mixture risks and observed impacts. Fish abundance and abiotic monitoring data from Ohio, USA, surface waters were compiled and analyzed. Variability of biotic and abiotic parameters was large. Exposure assessment, risk assessment with species-sensitivity distributions, and mixture toxicity rules were used to calculate a relative risk predictor: The multisubstance potentially affected fraction of species (msPAF). Predicted acute and chronic risks ranged from low values to more than 10 and 50% of species potentially affected, respectively. Pearson correlations between predicted risk and observed assemblage characteristics were nonsignificant for total abundance, number of species, Shannon-Weaver index, and evenness. Moderately significant correlations were found between predicted risk and abundance for 23% of individual species. Both abundance increases and decreases were observed. Generalized linear model (GLM) regressions revealed significant nonlinear associations between predicted risk and the abundance for 50% (metals and ammonia) and 55% (household product ingredients) of the species. Local ecological impact was expressed as the fraction of species expected but not observed, both with and without attribution of impact to mixture exposure. The association between predicted impacted fraction and the fraction of species expected but not observed was not significant. Predicted acute and chronic impacted fractions were associated significantly with the observed fraction of species likely lost by the action of toxicant mixtures under field conditions, with wide confidence bounds. These findings confirm the view that higher mixture impacts are expected in the field at higher msPAF.

  12. Thermal niche evolution and geographical range expansion in a species complex of western Mediterranean diving beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo-Galiana, Amparo; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Bilton, David T; Cieslak, Alexandra; Ribera, Ignacio

    2014-09-04

    Species thermal requirements are one of the principal determinants of their ecology and biogeography, although our understanding of the interplay between these factors is limited by the paucity of integrative empirical studies. Here we use empirically collected thermal tolerance data in combination with molecular phylogenetics/phylogeography and ecological niche modelling to study the evolution of a clade of three western Mediterranean diving beetles, the Agabus brunneus complex. The preferred mitochondrial DNA topology recovered A. ramblae (North Africa, east Iberia and Balearic islands) as paraphyletic, with A. brunneus (widespread in the southwestern Mediterranean) and A. rufulus (Corsica and Sardinia) nested within it, with an estimated origin between 0.60-0.25 Ma. All three species were, however, recovered as monophyletic using nuclear DNA markers. A Bayesian skyline plot suggested demographic expansion in the clade at the onset of the last glacial cycle. The species thermal tolerances differ significantly, with A. brunneus able to tolerate lower temperatures than the other taxa. The climatic niche of the three species also differs, with A. ramblae occupying more arid and seasonal areas, with a higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. The estimated potential distribution for both A. brunneus and A. ramblae was most restricted in the last interglacial, becoming increasingly wider through the last glacial and the Holocene. The A. brunneus complex diversified in the late Pleistocene, most likely in south Iberia after colonization from Morocco. Insular forms did not differentiate substantially in morphology or ecology, but A. brunneus evolved a wider tolerance to cold, which appeared to have facilitated its geographic expansion. Both A. brunneus and A. ramblae expanded their ranges during the last glacial, although they have not occupied areas beyond their LGM potential distribution except for isolated populations of A. brunneus in France and England. On

  13. [Altitudinal patterns of species richness and species range size of vascular plants in Xiaolong- shan Reserve of Qinling Mountain: a test of Rapoport' s rule].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zhi; Gong, Da-Jie; Sun, Cheng-Xiang; Li, Xiao-Jun; Li, Wan-Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Altitudinal patterns of species richness and species range size and their underlying mechanisms have long been a key topic in biogeography and biodiversity research. Rapoport's rule stated that the species richness gradually declined with the increasing altitude, while the species ranges became larger. Using altitude-distribution database from Xiaolongshan Reverse, this study explored the altitudinal patterns of vascular plant species richness and species range in Qinling Xiaolongshan Reserve, and examined the relationships between species richness and their distributional middle points in altitudinal bands for different fauna, taxonomic units and growth forms and tested the Rapoport's rule by using Stevens' method, Pagel's method, mid-point method and cross-species method. The results showed that the species richness of vascular plants except small-range species showed a unimodal pattern along the altitude in Qinling Xiaolongshan Reserve and the highest proportion of small-range species was found at the lower altitudinal bands and at the higher altitudinal bands. Due to different assemblages and examining methods, the relationships between species distributing range sizes and the altitudes were different. Increasing taxonomic units was easier to support Rapoport's rule, which was related to niche differences that the different taxonomic units occupied. The mean species range size of angiosperms showed a unimodal pattern along the altitude, while those of the gymnosperms and pteridophytes were unclearly regular. The mean species range size of the climbers was wider with the increasing altitude, while that of the shrubs which could adapt to different environmental situations was not sensitive to the change of altitude. Pagel's method was easier to support the Rapoport's rule, and then was Steven's method. On the contrary, due to the mid-domain effect, the results of the test by using the mid-point method showed that the mean species range size varied in a unimodal

  14. Predicting Species Cover of Marine Macrophyte and Invertebrate Species Combining Hyperspectral Remote Sensing, Machine Learning and Regression Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kotta, Jonne; Kutser, Tiit; Teeveer, Karolin; Vahtmäe, Ele; Pärnoja, Merli

    2013-01-01

    ...), an ensemble method for statistical techniques and machine learning, in order to test their applicability in predicting macrophyte and invertebrate species cover in the optically complex seawater of the Baltic Sea...

  15. Predicting species cover of marine macrophyte and invertebrate species combining hyperspectral remote sensing, machine learning and regression techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kotta, Jonne; Kutser, Tiit; Teeveer, Karolin; Vahtmäe, Ele; Pärnoja, Merli

    2014-01-01

    ...), an ensemble method for statistical techniques and machine learning, in order to test their applicability in predicting macrophyte and invertebrate species cover in the optically complex seawater of the Baltic Sea...

  16. Heat Stability and Species Range of Purified Staphylococcal α-Toxin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Louis Z.; Madoff, Morton A.; Weinstein, Louis

    1966-01-01

    Cooper, Louis Z. (New England Medical Center Hospital, Boston, Mass.), Morton A. Madoff, and Louis Weinstein. Heat stability and species range of purified staphylococcal α-toxin. J. Bacteriol. 91:1686–1692. 1966.—Heating of high-titer purified staphylococcal α-toxin at 60 and 80 C resulted in a double-sloped curve of inactivation of the hemolytic effect on rabbit erythrocytes. Early inactivation was less at the lower temperature, but activity persisted for a longer time at 80 C. Toxin inactivated at 60 C showed renewed activity when heated briefly at 80 C. A precipitate which formed during heating of α-toxin at 60 or 80 C yielded hemolytic activity when resuspended and heated at 80 but not at 60 C. Supernatant fluid of heat-precipitated toxin was heat-labile and did not regain activity when heated at 80 C. The results indicate that the “paradoxical effect” of heating of staphylococcal α-toxin is not due to a thermolabile inhibitor, but results from alteration of the toxin molecule to a heat-stable active form. Demonstration of renewed activity by 80 C heating of purified toxin requires potent toxin preparations and brief heating periods. Hemolysis of erythrocytes of several animal species by purified α-toxin was generally similar to that produced by impure toxin. Rabbit cells were most susceptible. Human and horse erythrocytes hemolyzed to less than 0.1% of the extent of rabbit cells. Blood cells of other species were intermediate in their response to the lytic effect of α-toxin. PMID:5937231

  17. Bird species richness is associated with phylogenetic relatedness, plant species richness, and altitudinal range in Inner Mongolia

    OpenAIRE

    Liang, Chenxia; Feng, Gang; Si, Xingfeng; Mao, Lingfeng; Yang, Guisheng; Svenning, Jens Christian; Yang, Jie

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Bird species richness is mediated by local, regional, and historical factors, for example, competition, environmental heterogeneity, contemporary, and historical climate. Here, we related bird species richness with phylogenetic relatedness of bird assemblages, plant species richness, topography, contemporary climate, and glacial‐interglacial climate change to investigate the relative importance of these factors. This study was conducted in Inner Mongolia, an arid and semiarid region ...

  18. Predicted Pleistocene-Holocene range shifts of the tiger (Panthera tigris)

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, David M.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Gittings, Bruce M.; Scharf, Anne K.; Wilting, Andreas; Kitchener, Andrew C.

    2016-01-01

    Aim - In this article, we modelled the potential range shifts of tiger (Panthera tigris) populations over the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, to provide new insights into the evolutionary history and interconnectivity between populations of this endangered species.Location - Asia.Methods - We used an ecological niche approach and applied a maximum entropy (Maxent) framework to model potential distributions of tigers. Bioclimatic conditions for the present day and mid-Holocene, and for the Last...

  19. Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Rose A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2017-04-04

    Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked (i) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; (ii) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and (iii) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors (n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities (n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply.

  20. Modelling the effect of temperature on the range expansion of species by reaction-diffusion equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Otto; Moenickes, Sylvia; Suhling, Frank

    2012-02-01

    The spatial dynamics of range expansion is studied in dependence of temperature. The main elements population dynamics, competition and dispersal are combined in a coherent approach based on a system of coupled partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion type. The nonlinear reaction terms comprise population dynamic models with temperature dependent reproduction rates subject to an Allee effect and mutual competition. The effect of temperature on travelling wave solutions is investigated for a one dimensional model version. One main result is the importance of the Allee effect for the crossing of regions with unsuitable habitats. The nonlinearities of the interaction terms give rise to a richness of spatio-temporal dynamic patterns. In two dimensions, the resulting non-linear initial boundary value problems are solved over geometries of heterogeneous landscapes. Geo referenced model parameters such as mean temperature and elevation are imported into the finite element tool COMSOL Multiphysics from a geographical information system. The model is applied to the range expansion of species at the scale of middle Europe. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Roulin

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS, is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.

  2. An Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System for Alpine Catchments in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monhart, Samuel; Bogner, Konrad; Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Zappa, Massimiliano; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    In recent years meteorological ensemble prediction systems have increasingly be used to feed hydrological models in order to provide probabilistic streamflow forecasts. Such hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been analyzed for different lead times from short-term to seasonal predictions and are used for different applications. Especially at longer lead times both such forecasts exhibit systematic biases which can be removed by applying bias correction techniques to both the meteorological and/or the hydrological output. However, it is still an open question if pre- or post-processing techniques or both should be applied. We will present first results of the analysis of pre- and post-processed extended-range hydrometeorological forecasts. In a first step the performance of bias corrected and downscaled (using quantile mapping) extended-range meteorological forecasts provided by the ECMWF is assessed for approximately 1000 ground observation sites across Europe. Generally, bias corrected meteorological forecasts show positive skill in terms of CRPSS up to three (two) weeks for weekly mean temperature (precipitation) compared to climatological forecasts. For the Alpine region the absolute skill is generally lower but the relative gain in skill resulting from the bias correction is larger. These pre-processed meteorological forecasts of one year of ECMWF extended-range forecasts and corresponding hindcasts are used to feed a hydrological model for a selected catchment in the Alpine area in Switzerland. Furthermore, different post-processing techniques are tested to correct the resulting streamflow forecasts. This will allow to determine the relative effect of pre- and post-processing of extended-range hydrometeorological predictions in Alpine catchments. Future work will include the combination of these corrected streamflow forecasts with electricity price forecasts to optimize the operations and revenues of hydropower systems in the Alps.

  3. Do species differ in their ability to coexist with the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus? A comparison between two distinct invaded ranges and a native range

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hejda, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 17, jun 2013 (2013), s. 39-55 ISSN 1619-0033 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP505/11/1112; GA ČR GA206/07/0668 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : lupinus polyphyllus * invasive alien species * native range Subject RIV: EF - Botanics

  4. Sub-Seasonal Predictability And Dynamical Processes: Long-Range Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunet, G.

    2016-12-01

    World leading global forecasting systems in 2016 operate with around 20-100 ensemble members and a horizontal resolution in the range 13 to 50km with of order 100 vertical levels. We can currently predict large-scale weather patterns and regime transitions out to a month or more ahead and high-impact events, such as tropical cyclones, out to two weeks ahead. Under certain conditions, even sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts have some predictive skill. Especially the intra-seasonal variability has a lot more degrees of freedom than seasonal variability and the associated dynamical and physical processes are numerous and complex. As an example research in the last three decades on tropical modes of ocean-atmosphere interaction, like the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) oceanic phenomenon and its complex interaction between the large scale tropical atmosphere and organised moist convection, has permitted significant advances in seasonal prediction. Similarly research in the intra-seasonal variability has point out another ocean-atmosphere interaction mode, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), as an important source of predictability. MJO modulates significantly the mid-latitude intra-seasonal variability through tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections, like the Canadian winter temperature and precipitation. Another example is the two-way link between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulates significantly weather regimes over Western Europe. Pushing forecast leadtime to sub-seasonal scale will unfold a new landscape of predictability, model uncertainties and ensemble prediction issues. The richness of the sources of predictability associated with these processes could provide increase predictive skill in all seasons and regions. The associated socio-economic benefits are indeed promising to inform reliably the risk of high-impact weather, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation

  5. Can glenohumeral joint isokinetic strength and range of movement predict injury in professional rugby league.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Andrew; Funk, Lennard

    2014-05-01

    To isokinetically record shoulder strength scores and range of motion in a professional rugby league squad. To prospectively monitor injuries over a season looking for associations between measured variables and injury. A cohort study design involving prospective screening of risk factors with subsequent injury surveillance. University Sports Science Laboratory and Professional Rugby League Club. All players participating in the clubs reserve team squad for the 2011 season (n = 20). Concentric (Con) and eccentric (Ecc) peak torque values; ratio of Ecc internal rotation IR to Con external rotation ER, also known as the dynamic control ratio (DCR), shoulder range of IR and ER. Eight players (36%) received a total of eleven injuries over the season. There were no statistically significant differences between injured and non-injured shoulders. IR range of movement was significantly lower in injured versus non-injured groups with left (p = 0.022) and right (p = 0.024). Left IR range of movement was predictive of injury using binary logistic regression (p = 0.046). No isokinetic strength parameters reached statistical significance (p > 0.05) for prediction of injury; however size effects were apparent for reduced con IR of the left shoulder and Ecc IR of both shoulders. Reduced shoulder IR range appears predictive of future shoulder injury although caution is drawn due to small participant numbers. Injury prevention strategies for rugby league players should include exercises to improve shoulder IR and possibly Ecc IR strength. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. How do low dispersal species establish large range sizes? The case of the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Lars Lønsmann; Rannap, Riinu; Thomsen, Philip Francis

    2013-01-01

    important than species phylogeny or local spatial attributes. In this study we used the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus a philopatric species of conservation concern in Europe as a model to explain large range size and to support effective conservation measures for such species that also have limited...... systems and wetlands which used to be highly connected throughout the central plains of Europe. Our data suggest that a broad habitat niche can prevent landscape elements from becoming barriers for species like G. bilineatus. Therefore, we question the usefulness of site protection as conservation...... measures for G. bilineatus and similar philopatric species. Instead, conservation actions should be focused at the landscape level to ensure a long-term viability of such species across their range....

  7. How predictability of feeding patches affects home range and foraging habitat selection in avian social scavengers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Monsarrat

    Full Text Available Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands Causses (France, a reintroduced population of Griffon vultures Gyps fulvus can find carcasses at three types of sites: 1. "light feeding stations", where farmers can drop carcasses at their farm (spatially predictable, 2. "heavy feeding stations", where carcasses from nearby farms are concentrated (spatially and temporally predictable and 3. open grasslands, where resources are randomly distributed (unpredictable. The impact of feeding stations on vulture's foraging behaviour was investigated using 28 GPS-tracked vultures. The average home range size was maximal in spring (1272 ± 752 km(2 and minimal in winter (473 ± 237 km(2 and was highly variable among individuals. Analyses of home range characteristics and feeding habitat selection via compositional analysis showed that feeding stations were always preferred compared to the rest of the habitat where vultures can find unpredictable resources. Feeding stations were particularly used when resources were scarce (summer or when flight conditions were poor (winter, limiting long-ranging movements. However, when flight conditions were optimal, home ranges also encompassed large areas of grassland where vultures could find unpredictable resources, suggesting that vultures did not lose their natural ability to forage on unpredictable resources, even when feeding stations were available. However during seasons when food abundance and flight conditions were not limited, vultures seemed to favour light over heavy feeding stations, probably because of the reduced intraspecific competition and a pattern closer to the natural dispersion of resources in the landscape. Light feeding stations are interesting tools

  8. SRKW summer prey - Prey species and stock specific consumption estimates for SRKW in their summer range

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Southern Resident Killer Whales (SRKW) are listed as a Distinct Population Segment under the Endangered Species Act. Data concerning their prey species and stock...

  9. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  10. Species boundaries and host range of tortoise mites (Uropodoidea phoretic on bark beetles (Scolytinae, using morphometric and molecular markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne Knee

    Full Text Available Understanding the ecology and evolutionary history of symbionts and their hosts requires accurate taxonomic knowledge, including clear species boundaries and phylogenies. Tortoise mites (Mesostigmata: Uropodoidea are among the most diverse arthropod associates of bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae, but their taxonomy and host associations are largely unstudied. We tested the hypotheses that (1 morphologically defined species are supported by molecular data, and that (2 bark beetle uropodoids with a broad host range comprise cryptic species. To do so, we assessed the species boundaries of uropodoid mites collected from 51 host species, across 11 countries and 103 sites, using morphometric data as well as partial cytochrome oxidase I (COI and nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA (28S. Overall, morphologically defined species were confirmed by molecular datasets, with a few exceptions. Twenty-nine of the 36 uropodoid species (Trichouropoda, Nenteria and Uroobovella collected in this study had narrow host ranges, while seven species had putative broad host ranges. In all but one species, U. orri, our data supported the existence of these host generalists, which contrasts with the typical finding that widespread generalists are actually complexes of cryptic specialists.

  11. Species boundaries and host range of tortoise mites (Uropodoidea) phoretic on bark beetles (Scolytinae), using morphometric and molecular markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knee, Wayne; Beaulieu, Frédéric; Skevington, Jeffrey H; Kelso, Scott; Cognato, Anthony I; Forbes, Mark R

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the ecology and evolutionary history of symbionts and their hosts requires accurate taxonomic knowledge, including clear species boundaries and phylogenies. Tortoise mites (Mesostigmata: Uropodoidea) are among the most diverse arthropod associates of bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae), but their taxonomy and host associations are largely unstudied. We tested the hypotheses that (1) morphologically defined species are supported by molecular data, and that (2) bark beetle uropodoids with a broad host range comprise cryptic species. To do so, we assessed the species boundaries of uropodoid mites collected from 51 host species, across 11 countries and 103 sites, using morphometric data as well as partial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA (28S). Overall, morphologically defined species were confirmed by molecular datasets, with a few exceptions. Twenty-nine of the 36 uropodoid species (Trichouropoda, Nenteria and Uroobovella) collected in this study had narrow host ranges, while seven species had putative broad host ranges. In all but one species, U. orri, our data supported the existence of these host generalists, which contrasts with the typical finding that widespread generalists are actually complexes of cryptic specialists.

  12. Predicting transition ranges to fully turbulent viscous boundary layers in low Prandtl number convection flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheel, Janet D.; Schumacher, Jörg

    2017-12-01

    We discuss two aspects of turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection (RBC) on the basis of high-resolution direct numerical simulations in a unique setting: a closed cylindrical cell of aspect ratio of one. First, we present a comprehensive comparison of statistical quantities such as energy dissipation rates and boundary layer thickness scales. Data are used from three simulation run series at Prandtl numbers Pr that cover two orders of magnitude. In contrast to most previous studies in RBC the focus of the present work is on convective turbulence at very low Prandtl numbers including Pr=0.021 for liquid mercury or gallium and Pr=0.005 for liquid sodium. In this parameter range of RBC, inertial effects cause a dominating turbulent momentum transport that is in line with highly intermittent fluid turbulence both in the bulk and in the boundary layers and thus should be able to trigger a transition to the fully turbulent boundary layers of the ultimate regime of convection for higher Rayleigh number. Second, we predict the ranges of Rayleigh numbers for which the viscous boundary layer will transition to turbulence and the flow as a whole will cross over into the ultimate regime. These transition ranges are obtained by extrapolation from our simulation data. The extrapolation methods are based on the large-scale properties of the velocity profile. Two of the three methods predict similar ranges for the transition to ultimate convection when their uncertainties are taken into account. All three extrapolation methods indicate that the range of critical Rayleigh numbers Rac is shifted to smaller magnitudes as the Prandtl number becomes smaller.

  13. Model Predictive Control considering Reachable Range of Wheels for Leg / Wheel Mobile Robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Naito; Nonaka, Kenichiro; Sekiguchi, Kazuma

    2016-09-01

    Obstacle avoidance is one of the important tasks for mobile robots. In this paper, we study obstacle avoidance control for mobile robots equipped with four legs comprised of three DoF SCARA leg/wheel mechanism, which enables the robot to change its shape adapting to environments. Our previous method achieves obstacle avoidance by model predictive control (MPC) considering obstacle size and lateral wheel positions. However, this method does not ensure existence of joint angles which achieves reference wheel positions calculated by MPC. In this study, we propose a model predictive control considering reachable mobile ranges of wheels positions by combining multiple linear constraints, where each reachable mobile range is approximated as a convex trapezoid. Thus, we achieve to formulate a MPC as a quadratic problem with linear constraints for nonlinear problem of longitudinal and lateral wheel position control. By optimization of MPC, the reference wheel positions are calculated, while each joint angle is determined by inverse kinematics. Considering reachable mobile ranges explicitly, the optimal joint angles are calculated, which enables wheels to reach the reference wheel positions. We verify its advantages by comparing the proposed method with the previous method through numerical simulations.

  14. A tropical Atlantic species of Melibe Rang, 1829 (Mollusca, Nudibranchia, Tethyiidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Espinoza

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A new species of Melibe is described based on two specimens collected in Florida. This new species is well differentiated morphologically and genetically from other species of Melibe studied to date. The four residue deletions in the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 protein found in all previously sequenced tropical species of Melibe sequenced (and Melibe rosea are also present in this new species. These deletions do not appear to affect important structural components of this protein but might have fitness implications. This paper provides the first confirmed record of Melibe in the tropical western Atlantic Ocean.

  15. Unifying elemental stoichiometry and metabolic theory in predicting species abundances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ott, David; Digel, Christoph; Rall, Björn Christian; Maraun, Mark; Scheu, Stefan; Brose, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    While metabolic theory predicts variance in population density within communities depending on population average body masses, the ecological stoichiometry concept relates density variation across communities to varying resource stoichiometry. Using a data set including biomass densities of 4959

  16. Predicting copper toxicity to different earthworm species using a multicomponent Freundlich model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hao; Vijver, Martina G; He, Erkai; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

    2013-05-07

    This study aimed to develop bioavailability models for predicting Cu toxicity to earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus, Aporrectodea longa, and Eisenia fetida) in a range of soils of varying properties. A multicomponent Freundlich model, complying with the basic assumption of the biotic ligands model, was used to relate Cu toxicity to the free Cu(2+) activity and possible protective cations in soil porewater. Median lethal concentrations (LC50s) of Cu based on the total Cu concentration varied in each species from soil to soil, reaching differences of approximately a factor 9 in L. rubellus, 49 in A. longa and 45 in E. fetida. The relative sensitivity of the earthworms to Cu in different soils followed the same order: L. rubellus > A. longa > E. fetida. Only pH not other cations (K(+), Ca(2+), Na(+), and Mg(2+)) were found to exert significant protective effects against Cu toxicity to earthworms. The Freundlich-type model in which the protective effects of pH were included, explained 84%, 94%, and 96% of variations in LC50s of Cu (expressed as free ion activity) for L. rubellus, A. longa, and E. fetida, respectively. Predicted LC50s never differed by a factor of more than 2 from the observed LC50s. External validation of the model showed a similar level of precision, even though toxicity data for other soil organisms and for different endpoints were used. The findings of the present study showed the possibility of extrapolating the developed toxicity models for one earthworm species to another species. Moreover, the Freundlich-type model in which the free Cu(2+) activity and pH in soil porewater are considered can even be used to predict toxicity for other soil invertebrates and plants.

  17. Predicting commuter flows in spatial networks using a radiation model based on temporal ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yihui; Ercsey-Ravasz, Mária; Wang, Pu; González, Marta C.; Toroczkai, Zoltán

    2014-11-01

    Understanding network flows such as commuter traffic in large transportation networks is an ongoing challenge due to the complex nature of the transportation infrastructure and human mobility. Here we show a first-principles based method for traffic prediction using a cost-based generalization of the radiation model for human mobility, coupled with a cost-minimizing algorithm for efficient distribution of the mobility fluxes through the network. Using US census and highway traffic data, we show that traffic can efficiently and accurately be computed from a range-limited, network betweenness type calculation. The model based on travel time costs captures the log-normal distribution of the traffic and attains a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.75) when compared with real traffic. Because of its principled nature, this method can inform many applications related to human mobility driven flows in spatial networks, ranging from transportation, through urban planning to mitigation of the effects of catastrophic events.

  18. An environmental stress model correctly predicts unimodal trends in overall species richness and diversity along intertidal elevation gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwerschke, Nadescha; Bollen, Merle; Molis, Markus; Scrosati, Ricardo A.

    2013-12-01

    Environmental stress is a major factor structuring communities. An environmental stress model (ESM) predicts that overall species richness and diversity should follow a unimodal trend along the full stress gradient along which assemblages from a regional biota can occur (not to be confused with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, which makes predictions only for basal species along an intermediate-to-high stress range). Past studies could only provide partial support for ESM predictions because of the limited stress range surveyed or a low sampling resolution. In this study, we measured overall species richness and diversity (considering all seaweeds and invertebrates) along the intertidal elevation gradient on two wave-sheltered rocky shores from Helgoland Island, on the NE Atlantic coast. In intertidal habitats, tides cause a pronounced gradient of increasing stress from low to high elevations. We surveyed up to nine contiguous elevation zones between the lowest intertidal elevation (low stress) and the high intertidal boundary (high stress). Nonlinear regression analyses revealed that overall species richness and diversity followed unimodal trends across elevations on the two studied shores. Therefore, our study suggests that the ESM might constitute a useful tool to predict local richness and diversity as a function of environmental stress. Performing tests on other systems (marine as well as terrestrial) should help to refine the model.

  19. Does enemy damage vary across the range of exotic plant species? Evidence from two coastal dune plant species in eastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabassum, Samiya; Leishman, Michelle R

    2017-11-22

    Release from natural enemies is often cited as a key factor for understanding the success of invasive plant species in novel environments. However, with time invasive species will accumulate native enemies in their invaded range, with factors such as spread distance from the site of introduction, climate and leaf-level traits potentially affecting enemy acquisition rates. However, the influence of such factors is difficult to assess without examining enemy attack across the entire species' range. We tested the significance of factors associated with range expansion (distance from source population and maximum population density), climatic variables (annual temperature and rainfall) and leaf-level traits [specific leaf area (SLA) and foliar nitrogen concentration] in explaining variation in enemy damage across multiple populations of two coastal invasive plants (Gladiolus gueinzii Kunze and Hydrocotyle bonariensis Lam.) along their entire introduced distribution in eastern Australia. We found that for H. bonariensis, amount of foliar damage increased with distance from source population. In contrast, for G. gueinzii, probability and amount of foliar damage decreased with decreasing temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively. Our results show that patterns of enemy attack across species' ranges are complex and cannot be generalised between species or even range edges.

  20. Prediction of kharif rice yield at Kharagpur using disaggregated extended range rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhekale, B. S.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Nair, Archana; Mohanty, U. C.; Swain, D. K.; Singh, K. K.; Arunbabu, T.

    2017-08-01

    The Extended Range Forecasts System (ERFS) has been generating monthly and seasonal forecasts on real-time basis throughout the year over India since 2009. India is one of the major rice producer and consumer in South Asia; more than 50% of the Indian population depends on rice as staple food. Rice is mainly grown in kharif season, which contributed 84% of the total annual rice production of the country. Rice cultivation in India is rainfed, which depends largely on rains, so reliability of the rainfall forecast plays a crucial role for planning the kharif rice crop. In the present study, an attempt has been made to test the reliability of seasonal and sub-seasonal ERFS summer monsoon rainfall forecasts for kharif rice yield predictions at Kharagpur, West Bengal by using CERES-Rice (DSSATv4.5) model. These ERFS forecasts are produced as monthly and seasonal mean values and are converted into daily sequences with stochastic weather generators for use with crop growth models. The daily sequences are generated from ERFS seasonal (June-September) and sub-seasonal (July-September, August-September, and September) summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall forecasts which are considered as input in CERES-rice crop simulation model for the crop yield prediction for hindcast (1985-2008) and real-time mode (2009-2015). The yield simulated using India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed daily rainfall data is considered as baseline yield for evaluating the performance of predicted yields using the ERFS forecasts. The findings revealed that the stochastic disaggregation can be used to disaggregate the monthly/seasonal ERFS forecasts into daily sequences. The year to year variability in rice yield at Kharagpur is efficiently predicted by using the ERFS forecast products in hindcast as well as real time, and significant enhancement in the prediction skill is noticed with advancement in the season due to incorporation of observed weather data which reduces uncertainty of

  1. Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Emilien; Lenoir, Jonathan; Piedallu, Christian; Gégout, Jean-Claude

    2016-06-01

    Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Using Models to Provide Predicted Ranges for Building-Human Interfaces: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, N.; Scheib, J.; Pless, S.; Schott, M.

    2013-09-01

    Most building energy consumption dashboards provide only a snapshot of building performance; whereas some provide more detailed historic data with which to compare current usage. This paper will discuss the Building Agent(tm) platform, which has been developed and deployed in a campus setting at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory as part of an effort to maintain the aggressive energyperformance achieved in newly constructed office buildings and laboratories. The Building Agent(tm) provides aggregated and coherent access to building data, including electric energy, thermal energy, temperatures, humidity, and lighting levels, and occupant feedback, which are displayed in various manners for visitors, building occupants, facility managers, and researchers. This paper focuseson the development of visualizations for facility managers, or an energy performance assurance role, where metered data are used to generate models that provide live predicted ranges of building performance by end use. These predicted ranges provide simple, visual context for displayed performance data without requiring users to also assess historical information or trends. Several energymodelling techniques were explored including static lookup-based performance targets, reduced-order models derived from historical data using main effect variables such as solar radiance for lighting performance, and integrated energy models using a whole-building energy simulation program.

  3. HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the

  4. A Novel Short-Range Prediction Model for Railway Track Irregularity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Xu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with axle loads, train loads, transport volume, and travel speed constantly increasing and railway network steadily lengthening, shortcomings of current maintenance strategies are getting to be noticed from an economical and safety perspective. To overcome the shortcomings, permanent-of-way departments throughout the world have given a considerable attention to an ideal maintenance strategy which is to carry out appropriate maintenances just in time on track locations really requiring maintenance. This strategy is simplified as the condition-based maintenance (CBM which has attracted attentions of engineers of many industries in the recent 70 years. To implement CBM for track irregularity, there are many issues which need to be addressed. One of them focuses on predicting track irregularity of each day in a future short period. In this paper, based on track irregularity evolution characteristics, a Short-Range Prediction Model was developed to this aim and is abbreviated to TI-SRPM. Performance analysis results for TI-SRPM illustrate that track irregularity amplitude predictions on sampling points by TI-SRPM are very close to their measurements by Track Geometry Car.

  5. Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Reduced plant-soil feedback of plant species expanding their range as compared to natives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grunsven, van R.H.A.; Putten, van der W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Tamis, W.L.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

    2007-01-01

    1. As a result of global warming, species may spread into previously cool regions. Species that disperse faster than their natural enemies may become released from top-down control. We investigated whether plants originating from southern Europe and recently established in north-western Europe

  7. Reduced plant–soil feedback of plant species expanding their range as compared to natives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Grunsven, R.H.A.; Van der Putten, W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Tamis, W.L.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

    2007-01-01

    1. As a result of global warming, species may spread into previously cool regions. Species that disperse faster than their natural enemies may become released from top-down control. We investigated whether plants originating from southern Europe and recently established in north-western Europe

  8. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Shukla

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times of up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the conterminous United States (CONUS. Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP based experiments were performed for the period 1980–2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980–2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts for runoff [SM] forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 [0 to 0.5] as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  9. Can the biomass-ratio hypothesis predict mixed-species litter decomposition along a climatic gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill; Bloor, Juliette M G; Soussana, Jean-François

    2014-04-01

    The biomass-ratio hypothesis states that ecosystem properties are driven by the characteristics of dominant species in the community. In this study, the hypothesis was operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs) of monoculture values and tested for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures along an abiotic gradient in the field. Decomposition rates (mg g(-1) d(-1)) of litter from four herb species were measured using litter-bed experiments with the same soil at three sites in central France along a correlated climatic gradient of temperature and precipitation. All possible combinations from one to four species mixtures were tested over 28 weeks of incubation. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the biomass-ratio hypothesis. Variability of the prediction errors was compared with the species richness of the mixtures, across sites, and within sites over time. Both positive and negative prediction errors occurred. Despite this, the biomass-ratio hypothesis was true as an average claim for all sites (r = 0·91) and for each site separately, except for the climatically intermediate site, which showed mainly synergistic deviations. Variability decreased with increasing species richness and in less favourable climatic conditions for decomposition. Community-weighted mean values provided good predictions of mixed-species litter decomposition, converging to the predicted values with increasing species richness and in climates less favourable to decomposition. Under a context of climate change, abiotic variability would be important to take into account when predicting ecosystem processes.

  10. Long Range Weather Prediction III: Miniaturized Distributed Sensors for Global Atmospheric Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teller, E; Leith, C; Canavan, G; Wood, L

    2001-11-13

    impacts of weather involve continuing costs of the order of 1% of GDP, a large fraction of which could be retrieved if high-fidelity predictions of two weeks forward applicability were available. These {approx}$10{sup 2} B annual savings dwarf the <$1 B costs of operating a rational, long-range weather prediction system of the type proposed.

  11. Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species responses to climatic gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Normand, Signe; Treier, Urs; Randin, Christophe

    2009-01-01

    Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determin...

  12. Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wason, Jay W; Dovciak, Martin

    2017-08-01

    Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land-use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land-use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land-use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce-fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir - generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates

  13. [Montana MOYOCO Invasive Species Strike Team Final Report 2013] National Bison Range, Lee Metcalf ISST

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The MOYOCO (MT) Invasive Species Strike Team is made up of two field strike teams, housed at Benton Lake and Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuges, yet administered...

  14. [Montana MOYOCO Invasive Species Strike Team Final Report 2011] National Bison Range, Lee Metcalf ISST

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The MOYOCO (MT) Invasive Species Strike Team is made up of two field strike teams, housed at Benton Lake and Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuges, yet administered...

  15. [Montana MOYOCO Invasive Species Strike Team Final Report 2016] National Bison Range, Lee Metcalf ISST

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The MOYOCO (MT) Invasive Species Strike Team is made up of two field strike teams, housed at Benton Lake and Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuges, yet administered...

  16. [Montana MOYOCO Invasive Species Strike Team Final Report 2012] National Bison Range, Lee Metcalf ISST

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The MOYOCO (MT) Invasive Species Strike Team is made up of two field strike teams, housed at Benton Lake and Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuges, yet administered...

  17. [Montana MOYOCO Invasive Species Strike Team Final Report 2015] National Bison Range, Lee Metcalf ISST

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The MOYOCO (MT) Invasive Species Strike Team is made up of two field strike teams, housed at Benton Lake and Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuges, yet administered...

  18. [Montana MOYOCO Invasive Species Strike Team Final Report 2014] National Bison Range, Lee Metcalf ISST

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The MOYOCO (MT) Invasive Species Strike Team is made up of two field strike teams, housed at Benton Lake and Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuges, yet administered...

  19. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2017-12-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  20. Prediction and overview of the RpoN-regulon in closely related species of the Rhizobiales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombrecht, Bruno; Marchal, Kathleen; Vanderleyden, Jos; Michiels, Jan

    2002-01-01

    In the rhizobia, a group of symbiotic Gram-negative soil bacteria, RpoN (sigma54, sigmaN, NtrA) is best known as the sigma factor enabling transcription of the nitrogen fixation genes. Recent reports, however, demonstrate the involvement of RpoN in other symbiotic functions, although no large-scale effort has yet been undertaken to unravel the RpoN-regulon in rhizobia. We screened two complete rhizobial genomes (Mesorhizobium loti, Sinorhizobium meliloti) and four symbiotic regions (Rhizobium etli, Rhizobium sp. NGR234, Bradyrhizobium japonicum, M. loti) for the presence of the highly conserved RpoN-binding sites. A comparison was also made with two closely related non-symbiotic members of the Rhizobiales (Agrobacterium tumefaciens, Brucella melitensis). A highly specific weight-matrix-based screening method was applied to predict members of the RpoN-regulon, which were stored in a highly annotated and manually curated dataset. Possible enhancer-binding proteins (EBPs) controlling the expression of RpoN-dependent genes were predicted with a profile hidden Markov model. The methodology used to predict RpoN-binding sites proved highly effective as nearly all known RpoN-controlled genes were identified. In addition, many new RpoN-dependent functions were found. The dependency of several of these diverse functions on RpoN seems species-specific. Around 30% of the identified genes are hypothetical. Rhizobia appear to have recruited RpoN for symbiotic processes, whereas the role of RpoN in A. tumefaciens and B. melitensis remains largely to be elucidated. All species screened possess at least one uncharacterized EBP as well as the usual ones. Lastly, RpoN could significantly broaden its working range by direct interfering with the binding of regulatory proteins to the promoter DNA.

  1. Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sattler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

  2. Predicting Short-Range Order in Multicomponent Alloys from an Improved Mean-Field Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Zhun-Yong; Johnson, Duane

    2007-03-01

    In alloys the atomic short-range order (SRO) indicates the nascent ordering to which the disordered alloy is tending at high temperatures. Direct first-principles prediction based upon KKR-CPA and mean-field thermodynamics have been successful in predicting system-specific SRO [1], if, at a minimum, corrections are included to satisfy the diffuse scattering sum rule in k-space. However, such models do not account for k-dependence of the corrections. Here, we present an analytic generalization to multicomponent alloys that includes ``cyclic diagrams'' [2,3] for composition, temperature, and k-dependent corrections to SRO. We first explore the improvement to SRO in model fcc ternary alloys via the generalized Ising model. We find that there is much better agreement to Monte Carlo simulations than with standard Bragg-Williams with(out) Onsager corrections. Then we implement this within the KKR-CPA linear-response theory of SRO.Work was supported by DOE (Award DEFG02-03ER46026 and NSF (DMR-0325939). [1] J.B. Staunton, D.D. Johnson, and F.J. Pinski, Phys. Rev. Lett. 65, 1259 (1990); Phys. Rev. B 50, 1450 (1994); ibid, 57, 15177 (1998). [2] R. Brout, Phys. Rev. 115, 824-835 (1959). [3] R.V. Chepulski, et al, Phys. Rev. 65, 064201-7 (2002).

  3. Extended-Range Ensemble Predictions of Convection in the North Australian Monsoon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drosdowsky, Wasyl; Wheeler, Matthew C.

    2017-04-01

    Extended-range (Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). Hindcasts from 1980-2011 are used, initialised on the 1st, 11th and 21st of each month, with a 33-member ensemble. The measure of convection is outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) averaged over the box 120ºE-150ºE, 5ºS-17.5ºS. This averaging serves to focus on the intraseasonal and longer time scales, and is an area of interest to users. The raw hindcasts of daily OLR show a strong systematic adjustment away from their initial values during the first week, and then converge to a mean seasonal cycle of similar amplitude and phase to observations. Hence, forecast OLR anomalies are formed by removing the model’s own seasonal cycle of OLR, which is a function of start time and lead time, a usual practice for dynamical seasonal prediction. Over all hindcasts, the model forecast root-mean-square (RMS) error is smaller than the RMS error of persistence and climatological reference forecasts for leads 3-35 days. Ensemble spread is less than the forecast RMS error (i.e. under-spread) for days 1-12, but slightly greater than the RMS error for longer leads. Binning the individual forecasts based on ensemble spread shows a generally positive relationship between spread and error. Therefore, greater certainty can be given for forecasts with smaller spread.

  4. Application of long-range order to predict unfolding rates of two-state proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harihar, B; Selvaraj, S

    2011-03-01

    Predicting the experimental unfolding rates of two-state proteins and models describing the unfolding rates of these proteins is quite limited because of the complexity present in the unfolding mechanism and the lack of experimental unfolding data compared with folding data. In this work, 25 two-state proteins characterized by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616) using a consensus set of experimental conditions were taken, and the parameter long-range order (LRO) derived from their three-dimensional structures were related with their experimental unfolding rates ln(k(u)). From the total data set of 30 proteins used by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616), five slow-unfolding proteins with very low unfolding rates were considered to be outliers and were not included in our data set. Except all beta structural class, LRO of both the all-alpha and mixed-class proteins showed a strong inverse correlation of r = -0.99 and -0.88, respectively, with experimental ln(k(u)). LRO shows a correlation of -0.62 with experimental ln(k(u)) for all-beta proteins. For predicting the unfolding rates, a simple statistical method has been used and linear regression equations were developed for individual structural classes of proteins using LRO, and the results obtained showed a better agreement with experimental results. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  5. Species richness of vascular plants along the climatic range of the Spanish dehesas at two spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose M. Garcia del Barrio

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aims of study: The goals of this paper are to summarize and to compare plant species richness and floristic similarity at two spatial scales; mesohabitat (normal, eutrophic, and oligotrophic dehesas and dehesa habitat; and to establish guidelines for conserving species diversity in dehesas.Area of study: We considered four dehesa sites in the western Peninsular Spain, located along a climatic and biogeographic gradient from north to south. Main results: Average alpha richness for mesohabitats was 75.6 species, and average alpha richness for dehesa sites was 146.3. Gamma richness assessed for the overall dehesa habitat was 340.0 species. The species richness figures of normal dehesa mesohabitat were significantly lesser than of the eutrophic mesohabitat and lesser than the oligotrophic mesohabitat too. No significant differences were found for species richness among dehesa sites. We have found more dissimilarity at local scale (mesohabitat than at regional scale (habitat. Finally, the results of the similarity assessment between dehesa sites reflected both climatic and biogeographic gradients.Research highlights: An effective conservation of dehesas must take into account local and regional conditions all along their distribution range for ensuring the conservation of the main vascular plant species assemblages as well as the associated fauna.Keywords: Agroforestry systems; mesohabitat; non-parametric estimators; alpha richness; gamma richness; floristic similarity; climatic and biogeographic range.

  6. Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olalla-Tárraga1, Miguel Á.; McInnes, Linsey; Bini, Luis M.

    2011-01-01

    in extant continental mammals and amphibians in order to identify those factors that are most evolutionarily conserved, and thus hypothesized to have played a major role in determining the geographic distributions of many species. We also test whether amphibians show stronger signals of climatic niche...... and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution....... Results Amphibians and mammals showed congruent patterns of conservatism in cold tolerance, with assemblages of escapee species (i.e. those escaping most from the climatic constraints of their ancestors) aggregated in the North Temperate Zone. Main conclusions The relative strength of climatic niche...

  7. Reduced mandibular range of motion in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bruggen, H W; Van Den Engel-Hoek, L; Steenks, M H; Bronkhorst, E M; Creugers, N H J; de Groot, I J M; Kalaykova, S I

    2015-06-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) experience negative effects upon feeding and oral health. We aimed to determine whether the mandibular range of motion in DMD is impaired and to explore predictive factors for the active maximum mouth opening (aMMO). 23 patients with DMD (mean age 16.7 ± 7.7 years) and 23 controls were assessed using a questionnaire about mandibular function and impairments. All participants underwent a clinical examination of the masticatory system, including measurement of mandibular range of motion and variables related to mandibular movements. In all patients, quantitative ultrasound of the digastric muscle and the geniohyoid muscle and the motor function measure (MFM) scale were performed. The patients were divided into early and late ambulatory stage (AS), early non-ambulatory stage (ENAS) and late non-ambulatory stage (LNAS). All mandibular movements were reduced in the patient group (P mandibular movements compared to AS and ENAS (P Mandibular movements in DMD are significantly reduced and become more hampered with loss of motor function, including the sitting position, arm function, and neck and head control. We suggest that measurement of the aMMO becomes a part of routine care of patients with DMD. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Progress in sensor performance testing, modeling and range prediction using the TOD method: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijl, Piet; Hogervorst, Maarten A.; Toet, Alexander

    2017-05-01

    The Triangle Orientation Discrimination (TOD) methodology includes i) a widely applicable, accurate end-to-end EO/IR sensor test, ii) an image-based sensor system model and iii) a Target Acquisition (TA) range model. The method has been extensively validated against TA field performance for a wide variety of well- and under-sampled imagers, systems with advanced image processing techniques such as dynamic super resolution and local adaptive contrast enhancement, and sensors showing smear or noise drift, for both static and dynamic test stimuli and as a function of target contrast. Recently, significant progress has been made in various directions. Dedicated visual and NIR test charts for lab and field testing are available and thermal test benches are on the market. Automated sensor testing using an objective synthetic human observer is within reach. Both an analytical and an image-based TOD model have recently been developed and are being implemented in the European Target Acquisition model ECOMOS and in the EOSTAR TDA. Further, the methodology is being applied for design optimization of high-end security camera systems. Finally, results from a recent perception study suggest that DRI ranges for real targets can be predicted by replacing the relevant distinctive target features by TOD test patterns of the same characteristic size and contrast, enabling a new TA modeling approach. This paper provides an overview.

  9. Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beatty, Gemma, E.; Philipp, Marianne; Provan, Jim

    2010-01-01

     Genetic analysis of samples from Greenland and Canada was carried out using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results Analysis of nuclear SNPs confirmed hybridization in populations of morphologically intermediate individuals, as well as revealing the existence....... This could compromise the ability of species to respond to climate change via habitat tracking, although the final outcome of these processes may ultimately depend on the rate of global climate change and its effect on the species' distributions....

  10. Species diversity and size ranges of cephalopods in the diet of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An analysis of cephalopod remains collected from jackass penguin Spheniscus demersus regurgitations and stomachs at. St Croix Island, Algoa Bay, in 1976 and 1977 revealed the presence of three cephalopod species. Most common was. Lo/igo reynaudi, with Heterotuthus sp. and Argonauta argo constituting trace items.

  11. Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Lutz; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; Jerry F. Franklin

    2010-01-01

    Modelled changes in climate water deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola...

  12. Species diversity and size ranges of cephalopods in the diet of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An analysis of cephalopod remains collected from jackass penguin Spheniscus demersus regurgitations and stomachs at St Croix Island, Algoa Bay, in 1976 and 1977 revealed the presence of three cephalopod species. Most common was Loligo reynaudi, with Heterotuthus sp. and Argonauta argo constituting trace items.

  13. A Palaearctic migratory raptor species tracks shifting prey availability within its wintering range in the Sahel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trierweiler, Christiane; Mullie, Wim C.; Drent, Rudi H.; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Komdeur, Jan; Bairlein, Franz; Harouna, Abdoulaye; de Bakker, Marinus; Koks, Ben J.

    Mid-winter movements of up to several hundreds of kilometres are typical for many migratory bird species wintering in Africa. Unpredictable temporary food concentrations are thought to result in random movements of such birds, whereas resightings and recoveries of marked birds suggest some degree of

  14. Plant-soil feedback of native and range expanding plant species is insensitive to temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grunsven, van R.H.A.; Veenendaal, E.M.; Bezemer, T.M.; Putten, van der W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Temperature change affects many aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes. Here we investigate the effect of a 5°C temperature increase on plant–soil feedback. We compare plant species from a temperate climate region with immigrant plants that originate from warmer regions and have recently

  15. An imputed forest composition map for New England screened by species range boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Duveneck; Jonathan R. Thompson; B. Tyler. Wilson

    2015-01-01

    Initializing forest landscape models (FLMs) to simulate changes in tree species composition requires accurate fine-scale forest attribute information mapped continuously over large areas. Nearest-neighbor imputation maps, maps developed from multivariate imputation of field plots, have high potential for use as the initial condition within FLMs, but the tendency for...

  16. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

  17. Novel view on predicting acute toxicity: Decomposing toxicity data in species vulnerability and chemical potency.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, D.T.; Posthuma, L.; Zwart, D.D.; van de Meent, D.

    2007-01-01

    Chemical risk assessment usually applies empirical methods to predict toxicant effects on different species. We propose a more mechanism-oriented approach, and introduce a method to decompose toxicity data in a contribution from the chemical (potency) and from the exposed species (vulnerability). We

  18. Fine-spatial scale predictions of understory species using climate- and LiDAR-derived terrain and canopy metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijland, Wiebe; Nielsen, Scott E.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Wulder, Michael A.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

    2014-01-01

    Food and habitat resources are critical components of wildlife management and conservation efforts. The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) has diverse diets and habitat requirements particularly for understory plant species, which are impacted by human developments and forest management activities. We use light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to predict the occurrence of 14 understory plant species relevant to bear forage and compare our predictions with more conventional climate- and land cover-based models. We use boosted regression trees to model each of the 14 understory species across 4435 km2 using occurrence (presence-absence) data from 1941 field plots. Three sets of models were fitted: climate only, climate and basic land and forest covers from Landsat 30-m imagery, and a climate- and LiDAR-derived model describing both the terrain and forest canopy. Resulting model accuracies varied widely among species. Overall, 8 of 14 species models were improved by including the LiDAR-derived variables. For climate-only models, mean annual precipitation and frost-free periods were the most important variables. With inclusion of LiDAR-derived attributes, depth-to-water table, terrain-intercepted annual radiation, and elevation were most often selected. This suggests that fine-scale terrain conditions affect the distribution of the studied species more than canopy conditions.

  19. Serosurvey for antibodies against Salmonella species in free-ranging moose (Alces alces) from Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aschfalk, Ansgar; Hundertmark, Kris J; Bendiksen, Heidi R; Arnemo, Jon M; Denzin, Nicolai

    2003-01-01

    An indirect ELISA was developed as a tool for surveillance of antibodies against Salmonella sp. in free-ranging moose (Alces alces) in Norway. Serum samples from 303 clinically healthy moose sampled between 1993-2000 were examined. Anti-Salmonella antibodies were detected in samples from 6 individuals (1.98%). This is the first evidence of Salmonella-seropositive free-ranging moose. Possible sources and transmission routes of Salmonella comprising environment, wildlife and man are discussed.

  20. Amphibian species traits, evolutionary history and environment predict Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection patterns, but not extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Dan A; Palen, Wendy J; Mooers, Arne Ø

    2017-12-01

    The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (B. dendrobatidis) has emerged as a major agent of amphibian extinction, requiring conservation intervention for many susceptible species. Identifying susceptible species is challenging, but many aspects of species biology are predicted to influence the evolution of host resistance, tolerance, or avoidance strategies towards disease. In turn, we may expect species exhibiting these distinct strategies to differ in their ability to survive epizootic disease outbreaks. Here, we test for phylogenetic and trait-based patterns of B. dendrobatidis infection risk and infection intensity among 302 amphibian species by compiling a global data set of B. dendrobatidis infection surveys across 95 sites. We then use best-fit models that associate traits, taxonomy and environment with B. dendrobatidis infection risk and intensity to predict host disease mitigation strategies (tolerance, resistance, avoidance) for 122 Neotropical amphibian species that experienced epizootic B. dendrobatidis outbreaks, and noted species persistence or extinction from these events. Aspects of amphibian species life history, habitat use and climatic niche were consistently linked to variation in B. dendrobatidis infection patterns across sites around the world. However, predicted B. dendrobatidis infection risk and intensity based on site environment and species traits did not reveal a consistent pattern between the predicted host disease mitigation strategy and extinction outcome. This suggests that either tolerant or resistant species may have no advantage in ameliorating disease during epizootic events, or that other factors drive the persistence of amphibian populations during chytridiomycosis outbreaks. These results suggest that using a trait-based approach may allow us to identify species with resistance or tolerance to endemic B. dendrobatidis infections, but that this approach may be insufficient to ultimately identify species at

  1. The potential of selected macroalgal species for treatment of AMD at different pH ranges in temperate regions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oberholster, Paul J

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The metal bioaccumulation potential of selected macroalgae species at different pH ranges was study for usage as part of a possible secondary passive acid mine drainage (AMD) treatment technology in algae ponds. Two separate studies were conducted...

  2. What Limits the Distribution of Liriomyza huidobrensis and Its Congener Liriomyza sativae in Their Native Niche: When Temperature and Competition Affect Species' Distribution Range in Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Castañeda, G; MacVean, C; Cardona, C; Hof, A R

    2017-07-01

    Factors limiting distribution range for most species are generally unknown regardless of whether they are native or invasive. We studied factors that could enable or restrict the distribution of two cosmopolitan invasive leafminer fly species, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) and Liriomyza sativae (Blanchard) in their native niche. In order to test which ecological and environmental factors affect leafminer distribution we conducted thermal tolerance assays, sampled along elevation gradients and modeled species distribution. Findings from the field and rearing chambers showed a physiological restriction due to high temperatures for L. huidobrensis at 28-29 °C, above which adult emergence is compromised. We also found that maximum temperatures below 22 °C, typical of tropical highlands, favored L. huidobrensis. L. sativae was found across a wider temperature range (i.e., from 21 to 36 °C) in Guatemala. Our finding of a physiological threshold in temperature for L. huidobrensis may enable us to predict its invasive risk when combined with the environmental conditions at horticultural ports of entry and the global agricultural landscape. Further, it strengthens our predictions on shifts in distribution of the leafminer fly under future climate. We also found a temperature mediated competitive exclusion interaction between the two herbivore species, where L. sativae occurred at temperatures < 22 °C only in the absence of L. huidobrensis. We show that parasitoids had a negative effect on the leafminer flies, which varied with host plant. Finally, we show the importance of taking a multiaspect approach when investigating what limits distribution and invasiveness of a species. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

  3. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  4. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  5. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  6. Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum in the southeastern United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Byers

    Full Text Available Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5 are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas, which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

  7. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Putten, W.H.; Macel, M.; Visser, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on

  8. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

  9. Uncertainties in Predicting Species Distributions under Climate Change: A Case Study Using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a Widespread Agricultural Pest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynard, Christine N.; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

  10. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae, a widespread agricultural pest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine N Meynard

    Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive

  11. Novel view on predicting acute toxicity: decomposing toxicity data in species vulnerability and chemical potency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jager, Tjalling; Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick; van de Meent, Dik

    2007-07-01

    Chemical risk assessment usually applies empirical methods to predict toxicant effects on different species. We propose a more mechanism-oriented approach, and introduce a method to decompose toxicity data in a contribution from the chemical (potency) and from the exposed species (vulnerability). We use a database for acute aquatic toxicity, and focus on some well-defined chemical classes. Potency is strongly related to hydrophobicity and vulnerability differences between species are small for narcotic compounds. Potencies show less relation with hydrophobicity and interspecies differences are larger for organophosphate- and carbamate insecticides. Photosynthesis inhibitors generally act narcotic to animals, but were more potent for algae. Using these potencies and vulnerabilities, acute toxicity values were well predicted by the proposed approach (within a factor of 3-6). The proposed approach has potential for predicting toxicity for untested species-compound combinations; however, there is a need for a better definition of 'mode of action' in ecotoxicology.

  12. The Importance of Interspecific Interactions on the Present Range of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) and Persistence of Resident Container Species in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Joseph E

    2016-09-01

    Aedes albopictus (Skuse) established in the United States over 30 yr ago and quickly spread throughout the entire eastern half of the country. It has recently spread into western regions and projected climate change scenarios suggest continued expansion to the west and north. Aedes albopictus has had major impacts on, and been impacted by, a diverse array of resident mosquito species. Laying eggs at the edges of small, water-holding containers, hatched larvae develop within these containers feeding on detritus-based resources. Under limited resource conditions, Ae. albopictus has been shown to be a superior competitor to essentially all native and resident species in the United States. Adult males also mate interspecifically with at least one resident species with significant negative impacts on reproductive output for susceptible females. Despite these strong interference effects on sympatric species, competitor outcomes have been highly variable, ranging from outright local exclusion by Ae. albopictus, to apparent exclusion of Ae. albopictus in the presence of the same species. Context-dependent mechanisms that alter the relative strengths of inter- and intraspecific competition, as well as rapid evolution of satyrization-resistant females, may help explain these patterns of variable coexistence. Although there is a large body of research on interspecific interactions of Ae. albopictus in the United States, there remain substantial gaps in our understanding of the most important species interactions. Addressing these gaps is important in predicting the future distribution of this species and understanding consequences for resident species, including humans, that interact with this highly invasive mosquito. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Small Ruminant Lentiviruses (SRLVs Break the Species Barrier to Acquire New Host Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Cezar Minardi da Cruz

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Zoonotic events of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV from non-human primates to humans have generated the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS, one of the most devastating infectious disease of the last century with more than 30 million people dead and about 40.3 million people currently infected worldwide. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1 and HIV-2, the two major viruses that cause AIDS in humans are retroviruses of the lentivirus genus. The genus includes arthritis-encephalitis virus (CAEV and Maedi-Visna virus (MVV, and a heterogeneous group of viruses known as small ruminant lentiviruses (SRLVs, affecting goat and sheep. Lentivirus genome integrates into the host DNA, causing persistent infection associated with a remarkable diversity during viral replication. Direct evidence of mixed infections with these two closely related SRLVs was found in both sheep and goats. The evidence of a genetic continuum with caprine and ovine field isolates demonstrates the absence of an efficient species barrier preventing cross-species transmission. In dual-infected animals, persistent infections with both CAEV and MVV have been described, and viral chimeras have been detected. This not only complicates animal trade between countries but favors the risk that highly pathogenic variants may emerge as has already been observed in the past in Iceland and, more recently, in outbreaks with virulent strains in Spain. SRLVs affecting wildlife have already been identified, demonstrating the existence of emergent viruses adapted to new hosts. Viruses adapted to wildlife ruminants may acquire novel biopathological properties which may endanger not only the new host species but also domestic ruminants and humans. SRLVs infecting sheep and goats follow a genomic evolution similar to that observed in HIV or in other lentiviruses. Lentivirus genetic diversity and host factors leading to the establishment of naturally occurring virulent versus avirulent infections

  14. Small ruminant lentiviruses (SRLVs) break the species barrier to acquire new host range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minardi da Cruz, Juliano Cezar; Singh, Dinesh Kumar; Lamara, Ali; Chebloune, Yahia

    2013-07-23

    Zoonotic events of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) from non-human primates to humans have generated the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), one of the most devastating infectious disease of the last century with more than 30 million people dead and about 40.3 million people currently infected worldwide. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1 and HIV-2), the two major viruses that cause AIDS in humans are retroviruses of the lentivirus genus. The genus includes arthritis-encephalitis virus (CAEV) and Maedi-Visna virus (MVV), and a heterogeneous group of viruses known as small ruminant lentiviruses (SRLVs), affecting goat and sheep. Lentivirus genome integrates into the host DNA, causing persistent infection associated with a remarkable diversity during viral replication. Direct evidence of mixed infections with these two closely related SRLVs was found in both sheep and goats. The evidence of a genetic continuum with caprine and ovine field isolates demonstrates the absence of an efficient species barrier preventing cross-species transmission. In dual-infected animals, persistent infections with both CAEV and MVV have been described, and viral chimeras have been detected. This not only complicates animal trade between countries but favors the risk that highly pathogenic variants may emerge as has already been observed in the past in Iceland and, more recently, in outbreaks with virulent strains in Spain. SRLVs affecting wildlife have already been identified, demonstrating the existence of emergent viruses adapted to new hosts. Viruses adapted to wildlife ruminants may acquire novel biopathological properties which may endanger not only the new host species but also domestic ruminants and humans. SRLVs infecting sheep and goats follow a genomic evolution similar to that observed in HIV or in other lentiviruses. Lentivirus genetic diversity and host factors leading to the establishment of naturally occurring virulent versus avirulent infections, in addition to

  15. A quick and robust MHC typing method for free-ranging and captive primate species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, N; Stanbury, K; de Vos-Rouweler, A J M; de Groot, N G; Poirier, N; Blancho, G; de Luna, C; Doxiadis, G G M; Bontrop, R E

    2017-04-01

    Gene products of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of human and non-human primates play a crucial role in adaptive immunity, and most of the relevant genes not only show a high degree of variability (polymorphism) but also copy number variation (CNV) is observed. Due to this diversity, MHC proteins influence the capability of individuals to cope with various pathogens. MHC and/or MHC-linked gene products such as odorant receptor genes are thought to influence mate choice and reproductive success. Therefore, MHC typing of wild and captive primate populations is considered to be useful in conservation biology, which is, however, often hampered by the need of invasive and time-consuming methods. All intact Mhc-DRB genes in primates appear to possess a complex and highly divergent microsatellite, DRB-STR. A panel of 154 pedigreed olive baboons (Papio anubis) was examined for their DRB content by DRB-STR analysis of genomic DNA. Using the same methodology on DNA of feces samples, DRB variability of a silvery gibbon population (Hylobates moloch) (N = 24), an endangered species, could successfully be studied. In both species, length determination of the DRB-STR resulted in the definition of unique genotyping patterns that appeared to be specific for a certain chromosome. Moreover, the different STR lengths were shown to segregate with the allelic variation of the respective gene. The results obtained expand data gained previously on DRB-STR typing in macaques, great apes, and humans and strengthen the conclusion that this protocol is applicable in molecular ecology, conservation biology, and colony management, especially of endangered primate species.

  16. Diversity and ecological ranges of plant species from dry inter-Andean valleys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quintana, Catalina

    found on steep slopes and in ravines. These areas of original dry valley vegetation preserve many wild relatives of cultivated plants on the one hand and old lineages of other wild plant groups. Dry inter-Andean valleys (DIAVs) in Ecuador therefore makeup a biodiversity hot spot for both plants...... that there were significant, contrasting patterns between life forms (trees, herbs and shrubs) and that combining trees and shrubs in one broad category confound patterns and ecological processes. 3) This paper demonstrates that 70% of species collected in Ecuadorian DIAVs are shared amongst dry forests...

  17. Using the biomass-ratio and idiosyncratic hypotheses to predict mixed-species litter decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill

    2013-01-01

    A test is made of the acceptability of the biomass-ratio hypothesis (BMRH), operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs), and of a new hypothesis (idiosyncratic annulment), for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures. Specifically, (1) does the BMRH based on monoculture decomposition rates introduce systematic over- or underestimation of rates in mixtures? and (2) does the degree of variability of these rates decrease with increasing species richness (SR) beyond that expected from purely mathematical causes? Decomposition rates (mg g(-1) d(-1)) of litter from six tree species in microcosms were measured under controlled conditions during 18 weeks of incubation, alone and in all possible combinations of two, three, five and six species. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the BMRH using CWMs calculated from the monoculture rates, and the variability of the differences were compared with the SR of the mixture. Both positive and negative deviations from expectation occurred at all levels of SR. The average differences between observed rates of mixtures and those predicted were approximately zero. Although variability in the prediction errors was independent of the SR, this variability between different mixtures having the same number of species decreased with increasing SR such that mixtures with the most species converged on the predicted values. This decrease in variance was not due to idiosyncratic annulment of higher order interactions between species. The BMRH described the average response of litter mixtures. The decrease in variance and the convergence to the predicted values based on CWMs was not due to the 'idiosyncratic annulment' of species interactions but was a mathematical consequence of CWMs being sums of random variables. Since convergence occurs with increasing SR and since SR increases with increasing spatial scale, the spatial scale will be a determinant in the prediction of ecosystem

  18. Can the biomass-ratio hypothesis predict mixed-species litter decomposition along a climatic gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill; Bloor, Juliette M. G.; Soussana, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims The biomass-ratio hypothesis states that ecosystem properties are driven by the characteristics of dominant species in the community. In this study, the hypothesis was operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs) of monoculture values and tested for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures along an abiotic gradient in the field. Methods Decomposition rates (mg g−1 d−1) of litter from four herb species were measured using litter-bed experiments with the same soil at three sites in central France along a correlated climatic gradient of temperature and precipitation. All possible combinations from one to four species mixtures were tested over 28 weeks of incubation. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the biomass-ratio hypothesis. Variability of the prediction errors was compared with the species richness of the mixtures, across sites, and within sites over time. Key Results Both positive and negative prediction errors occurred. Despite this, the biomass-ratio hypothesis was true as an average claim for all sites (r = 0·91) and for each site separately, except for the climatically intermediate site, which showed mainly synergistic deviations. Variability decreased with increasing species richness and in less favourable climatic conditions for decomposition. Conclusions Community-weighted mean values provided good predictions of mixed-species litter decomposition, converging to the predicted values with increasing species richness and in climates less favourable to decomposition. Under a context of climate change, abiotic variability would be important to take into account when predicting ecosystem processes. PMID:24482152

  19. Intestinal, segmented, filamentous bacteria in a wide range of vertebrate species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaasen, H L; Koopman, J P; Van den Brink, M E; Bakker, M H; Poelma, F G; Beynen, A C

    1993-04-01

    Segmented, filamentous bacteria (SFBs) form a group of bacteria with similar morphology and are identified on the basis of their morphology only. The relationships of these organisms are unclear as the application of formal taxonomic criteria is impossible currently due to the lack of an in vitro technique to culture SFBs. The intestine of laboratory animals such as mice, rats, chickens, dogs, cats and pigs is known to harbour SFBs. To see whether this extends to other animal species, intestines from 18 vertebrate species, including man, were examined. SFBs were detected with light microscopy in the cat, dog, rhesus monkey, crab-eating macaque, domestic fowl, South African claw-footed toad, carp, man, laboratory mouse and rat, wood mouse, jackdaw and magpie. These results suggest that non-pathogenic SFBs are ubiquitous in the animal kingdom. Among apparently identical animals, there was considerable variation in the degree of SFB colonization. It is suggested that SFB colonization could serve as a criterion of standardization of laboratory animals.

  20. New insights into the evolution of Wolbachia infections in filarial nematodes inferred from a large range of screened species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuele Ferri

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wolbachia are intriguing symbiotic endobacteria with a peculiar host range that includes arthropods and a single nematode family, the Onchocercidae encompassing agents of filariases. This raises the question of the origin of infection in filariae. Wolbachia infect the female germline and the hypodermis. Some evidences lead to the theory that Wolbachia act as mutualist and coevolved with filariae from one infection event: their removal sterilizes female filariae; all the specimens of a positive species are infected; Wolbachia are vertically inherited; a few species lost the symbiont. However, most data on Wolbachia and filaria relationships derive from studies on few species of Onchocercinae and Dirofilariinae, from mammals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the Wolbachia distribution testing 35 filarial species, including 28 species and 7 genera and/or subgenera newly screened, using PCR, immunohistochemical staining, whole mount fluorescent analysis, and cocladogenesis analysis. (i Among the newly screened Onchocercinae from mammals eight species harbour Wolbachia but for some of them, bacteria are absent in the hypodermis, or in variable density. (ii Wolbachia are not detected in the pathological model Monanema martini and in 8, upon 9, species of Cercopithifilaria. (iii Supergroup F Wolbachia is identified in two newly screened Mansonella species and in Cercopithifilaria japonica. (iv Type F Wolbachia infect the intestinal cells and somatic female genital tract. (v Among Oswaldofilariinae, Waltonellinae and Splendidofilariinae, from saurian, anuran and bird respectively, Wolbachia are not detected. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The absence of Wolbachia in 63% of onchocercids, notably in the ancestral Oswaldofilariinae estimated 140 mya old, the diverse tissues or specimens distribution, and a recent lateral transfer in supergroup F Wolbachia, modify the current view on the role and evolution of the endosymbiont and their

  1. Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charbonnel, Anaïs; Laffaille, Pascal; Biffi, Marjorie; Blanc, Frédéric; Maire, Anthony; Némoz, Mélanie; Sanchez-Perez, José Miguel; Sauvage, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future. PMID:27467269

  2. Pre-damage biomass allocation and not invasiveness predicts tolerance to damage in seedlings of woody species in Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lurie, Matthew H; Barton, Kasey E; Daehler, Curtis C

    2017-12-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions have been predicted to play a fundamental role in plant invasions, although support for this assertion from previous research is mixed. While plants may escape from specialist herbivores in their introduced ranges, herbivory from generalists is common. Tolerance traits may allow non-native plants to mitigate the negative consequences of generalist herbivory that they cannot avoid in their introduced range. Here we address whether tolerance to herbivory, quantified as survival and compensatory growth, is associated with plant invasion success in Hawaii and investigate traits that may enhance tolerance in seedlings, the life stage most susceptible to herbivory. In a greenhouse experiment, we measured seedling tolerance to simulated herbivory through mechanical damage (50% leaf removal) of 16 non-native woody plant species differing in invasion status (invasive vs. non-invasive). Seedlings were grown for 2 weeks following damage and analyzed for biomass to determine whether damaged plants could fully compensate for the lost leaf tissue. Over 99% of all seedlings survived defoliation. Although species varied significantly in their levels of compensation, there was no consistent difference between invasive and non-invasive species. Seedlings of 11 species undercompensated and remained substantially smaller than control seedlings 2 weeks after damage; four species were close to compensating, while one species overcompensated. Across species, compensation was positively associated with an increased investment in potential storage reserves, specifically cotyledons and roots, suggesting that these organs provide resources that help seedlings re-grow following damage. Our results add to a growing consensus that pre-damage growth patterns determine tolerance to damage, even in young seedlings which have relatively low biomass. The lack of higher tolerance in highly invasive species may suggest that invaders overcome herbivory barriers to invasion

  3. Predicting species cover of marine macrophyte and invertebrate species combining hyperspectral remote sensing, machine learning and regression techniques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonne Kotta

    Full Text Available In order to understand biotic patterns and their changes in nature there is an obvious need for high-quality seamless measurements of such patterns. If remote sensing methods have been applied with reasonable success in terrestrial environment, their use in aquatic ecosystems still remained challenging. In the present study we combined hyperspectral remote sensing and boosted regression tree modelling (BTR, an ensemble method for statistical techniques and machine learning, in order to test their applicability in predicting macrophyte and invertebrate species cover in the optically complex seawater of the Baltic Sea. The BRT technique combined with remote sensing and traditional spatial modelling succeeded in identifying, constructing and testing functionality of abiotic environmental predictors on the coverage of benthic macrophyte and invertebrate species. Our models easily predicted a large quantity of macrophyte and invertebrate species cover and recaptured multitude of interactions between environment and biota indicating a strong potential of the method in the modelling of aquatic species in the large variety of ecosystems.

  4. The assessment of the age of scleractinian coral species (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) based on the temperature ranges of their habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Os'kina, N. S.; Keller, N. B.; Nikolaev, S. D.

    2010-12-01

    Until now, the age of deep-water scleractinians was determined based only on rare finds of these corals in terrestrial sequences, which constitute <10% of their known diversity. Inasmuch as most of the non-zooxanthellate coral species dwell in the ocean beyond the shelf zone (up to the abyssal depths) and their fossil remains are missing from terrestrial sections, we propose a new approach to the assessment of their age based on paleoecological features: the seawater temperatures in the geological past and the habitat temperature ranges established for 53 coral species. The study confirmed our previous assumption concerning the very young age of the deep-water fauna.

  5. Predicting protein phosphorylation from gene expression: top methods from the IMPROVER Species Translation Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayarian, Adel; Romero, Roberto; Wang, Zhiming; Biehl, Michael; Bilal, Erhan; Hormoz, Sahand; Meyer, Pablo; Norel, Raquel; Rhrissorrakrai, Kahn; Bhanot, Gyan; Luo, Feng; Tarca, Adi L

    2015-02-15

    Using gene expression to infer changes in protein phosphorylation levels induced in cells by various stimuli is an outstanding problem. The intra-species protein phosphorylation challenge organized by the IMPROVER consortium provided the framework to identify the best approaches to address this issue. Rat lung epithelial cells were treated with 52 stimuli, and gene expression and phosphorylation levels were measured. Competing teams used gene expression data from 26 stimuli to develop protein phosphorylation prediction models and were ranked based on prediction performance for the remaining 26 stimuli. Three teams were tied in first place in this challenge achieving a balanced accuracy of about 70%, indicating that gene expression is only moderately predictive of protein phosphorylation. In spite of the similar performance, the approaches used by these three teams, described in detail in this article, were different, with the average number of predictor genes per phosphoprotein used by the teams ranging from 3 to 124. However, a significant overlap of gene signatures between teams was observed for the majority of the proteins considered, while Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways were enriched in the union of the predictor genes of the three teams for multiple proteins. Gene expression and protein phosphorylation data are available from ArrayExpress (E-MTAB-2091). Software implementation of the approach of Teams 49 and 75 are available at http://bioinformaticsprb.med.wayne.edu and http://people.cs.clemson.edu/∼luofeng/sbv.rar, respectively. gyanbhanot@gmail.com or luofeng@clemson.edu or atarca@med.wayne.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. Published by Oxford University Press 2014. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  6. Species' traits help predict small mammal responses to habitat homogenization by an invasive grass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceradini, Joseph P; Chalfoun, Anna D

    2017-07-01

    Invasive plants can negatively affect native species, however, the strength, direction, and shape of responses may vary depending on the type of habitat alteration and the natural history of native species. To prioritize conservation of vulnerable species, it is therefore critical to effectively predict species' responses to invasive plants, which may be facilitated by a framework based on species' traits. We studied the population and community responses of small mammals and changes in habitat heterogeneity across a gradient of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) cover, a widespread invasive plant in North America. We live-trapped small mammals over two summers and assessed the effect of cheatgrass on native small mammal abundance, richness, and species-specific and trait-based occupancy, while accounting for detection probability and other key habitat elements. Abundance was only estimated for the most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). All species were pooled for the trait-based occupancy analysis to quantify the ability of small mammal traits (habitat association, mode of locomotion, and diet) to predict responses to cheatgrass invasion. Habitat heterogeneity decreased with cheatgrass cover. Deer mouse abundance increased marginally with cheatgrass. Species richness did not vary with cheatgrass, however, pocket mouse (Perognathus spp.) and harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys spp.) occupancy tended to decrease and increase, respectively, with cheatgrass cover, suggesting a shift in community composition. Cheatgrass had little effect on occupancy for deer mice, 13-lined ground squirrels (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus), and Ord's kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii). Species' responses to cheatgrass primarily corresponded with our a priori predictions based on species' traits. The probability of occupancy varied significantly with a species' habitat association but not with diet or mode of locomotion. When considered within the context of a rapid habitat change

  7. Validation of a model for prediction of host damage by two nematode species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, L W; Ferris, H

    1983-04-01

    PLANT ROOTS WERE MECHANICALLY INJURED OR SUBJECTED TO NEMATODE PARASITISM TO TEST THE MODEL OF HOST DAMAGE BY TWO NEMATODE SPECIES: y = m' + (l - m')c'z(P)z(P) for y 1.0, where m' = m + (m - m) (1 - y)/[(1 - y) + (l - y)] and c' = (z(-T) + z(-T))/2. Damage functions for greenhouse-grown radish plants (cv. Cherry Belle) mechanically injured with small or large steel needles were used to predict growth of plants injured by both needles. Growth predictions accounted for 94%, 87%, and 82% of mean treatment variation in plant height, stem weight, and root weight, respectively. Cowpea (cv. California Blackeye No. 5) damage functions, based on preplant population levels of Meloidogyne incognita and M. javanica, were used to predict seed yield of plants concomitantly infected with various levels of each species. Single species damage functions and population growth curves indicated significant host resistance to M. incognita and significantly lower virulence of that species compared to M. javanica. Model predictions accounted for 88% of mean seed yield variation in two-species treatments. In a separate experiment, mean top weights of 30-day-old cowpea plants, nniformly inoculated with 20,000 M. javanica eggs, increased with increasing levels of concomitantly inoculated M. incognita eggs. It is speculated that competitive interactions between M. incognita and M. javanica mitigated host damage by the more virulent species.

  8. On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B Conn

    Full Text Available Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook's notion of an independent variable hull (IVH, developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models.

  9. Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

    1999-08-18

    As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

  10. Environmental niche variation and evolutionary diversification of the Brachypodium distachyon grass complex species in their native circum-Mediterranean range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Alvarez, Diana; Manzaneda, Antonio J; Rey, Pedro J; Giraldo, Patricia; Benavente, Elena; Allainguillaume, Joël; Mur, Luis; Caicedo, Ana L; Hazen, Samuel P; Breiman, Adina; Ezrati, Smadar; Catalán, Pilar

    2015-07-01

    • We conducted environmental niche modeling (ENM) of the Brachypodium distachyon s.l. complex, a model group of two diploid annual grasses (B. distachyon, B. stacei) and their derived allotetraploid (B. hybridum), native to the circum-Mediterranean region. We (1) investigated the ENMs of the three species in their native range based on present and past climate data; (2) identified potential overlapping niches of the diploids and their hybrid across four Quaternary windows; (3) tested whether speciation was associated with niche divergence/conservatism in the complex species; and (4) tested for the potential of the polyploid outperforming the diploids in the native range.• Geo-referenced data, altitude, and 19 climatic variables were used to construct the ENMs. We used paleoclimate niche models to trace the potential existence of ancestral gene flow among the hybridizing species of the complex.• Brachypodium distachyon grows in higher, cooler, and wetter places, B. stacei in lower, warmer, and drier places, and B. hybridum in places with intermediate climatic features. Brachypodium hybridum had the largest niche overlap with its parent niches, but a similar distribution range and niche breadth.• Each species had a unique environmental niche though there were multiple niche overlapping areas for the diploids across time, suggesting the potential existence of several hybrid zones during the Pleistocene and the Holocene. No evidence of niche divergence was found, suggesting that species diversification was not driven by ecological speciation but by evolutionary history, though it could be associated to distinct environmental adaptations. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  11. Predicting global population connectivity and targeting conservation action for snow leopard across its range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip Riordan; Samuel A. Cushman; David Mallon; Kun Shi; Joelene Hughes

    2016-01-01

    Movements of individuals within and among populations help to maintain genetic variability and population viability. Therefore, understanding landscape connectivity is vital for effective species conservation. The snow leopard is endemic to mountainous areas of central Asia and occurs within 12 countries. We assess potential connectivity across the species’...

  12. Occurrence of Pasteurella multocida and related species in village free ranging chickens and their animal contacts in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhairwa, A P; Mtambo, M M; Christensen, J P; Bisgaard, M

    2001-01-26

    Investigation was done to determine the presence of Pasteurella multocida and related species in free ranging chickens and ducks, dogs, cats and pigs in three climatic zones (cool, warm and hot) of rural Morogoro, Tanzania. A total of 153 isolates of P. multocida ssp. multocida and related species were obtained by direct culture on blood agar, selective medium and mouse inoculation. P. multocida ssp. multocida was isolated from 0.7% of chickens and 7% of ducks. In dogs and cats, P. multocida ssp. multocida was isolated from 1 and 68%, respectively. One isolate of Pasteurella gallinarum was isolated from a duck. Other species obtained were; P. multocida ssp. septica, Pasteurella stomatis and taxon 16 from dogs and cats, while Pasteurella dagmatis and Pasteurella canis were found in dogs only. Prevalence of P. multocida ssp. multocida was significantly higher (PPasteurella spp. were also observed in the study, but further characterization is required before the final classification can be made. This paper reports for the first time the isolation of unclassified Pasteurella from dogs and cats in Africa. The results implies that fowl cholera might be occurring in free ranging poultry, and dogs and cats kept in contact might serve as sources of P. multocida to chickens and ducks. Subsequent applications of molecular techniques to analyse the epidemiological relatedness of clones isolated from different host species is indicated.

  13. Monitoring species of mammals using track collection by rangers in the Tilarán mountain range, Costa Rica

    OpenAIRE

    Arévalo, J. Edgardo; Méndez, Yoryineth; Vargas, Sergio

    2015-01-01

    Although monitoring of animal populations for informed decision making is fundamental for the conservation and management of biodiversity, monitoring programs are not widely implemented. In addition, monitoring plans often represent an economic burden for many conservation organizations. Here we report on the monitoring of five focal species of mammals in the Tilarán mountain range, Costa Rica. We used a participatory approach in which trained rangers of four institutions conducted trail surv...

  14. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  15. Cross-species mapping of bidirectional promoters enables prediction of unannotated 5' UTRs and identification of species-specific transcripts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lewin Harris A

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bidirectional promoters are shared regulatory regions that influence the expression of two oppositely oriented genes. This type of regulatory architecture is found more frequently than expected by chance in the human genome, yet many specifics underlying the regulatory design are unknown. Given that the function of most orthologous genes is similar across species, we hypothesized that the architecture and regulation of bidirectional promoters might also be similar across species, representing a core regulatory structure and enabling annotation of these regions in additional mammalian genomes. Results By mapping the intergenic distances of genes in human, chimpanzee, bovine, murine, and rat, we show an enrichment for pairs of genes equal to or less than 1,000 bp between their adjacent 5' ends ("head-to-head" compared to pairs of genes that fall in the same orientation ("head-to-tail" or whose 3' ends are side-by-side ("tail-to-tail". A representative set of 1,369 human bidirectional promoters was mapped to orthologous sequences in other mammals. We confirmed predictions for 5' UTRs in nine of ten manual picks in bovine based on comparison to the orthologous human promoter set and in six of seven predictions in human based on comparison to the bovine dataset. The two predictions that did not have orthology as bidirectional promoters in the other species resulted from unique events that initiated transcription in the opposite direction in only those species. We found evidence supporting the independent emergence of bidirectional promoters from the family of five RecQ helicase genes, which gained their bidirectional promoters and partner genes independently rather than through a duplication process. Furthermore, by expanding our comparisons from pairwise to multispecies analyses we developed a map representing a core set of bidirectional promoters in mammals. Conclusion We show that the orthologous positions of bidirectional

  16. Aggressiveness and host range of Phoma medicaginis isolated from Medicago species growing in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naceur DJEBALI

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Aggressiveness of 14 Phoma medicaginis isolates obtained from Medicago truncatula (barrel medic and M. ciliaris (ciliate medic growing in Tunisia was measured after inoculation on leaves and roots of M. truncatula. The ability of one isolate to cause disease on M. sativa (alfalfa, Cicer arietinum (chickpea, Pisum sativum (pea, Lens culinaris (lentil and Phaseolus vulgaris (common bean was also tested. The pathogen caused dark lesions that enlarged and coalesced causing yellowing and premature abscission of leaves, resulting in decreased shoot fresh weight in barrel medic plants. All P. medicaginis isolates infected barrel medic roots causing collar rot, brown root discoloration, yellowing of cotyledons and reduced shoot and root development. The pathogen colonized the cortex and the stele of plants and produced fertile pycnidia on infected roots. Symptoms on leaves allowed for greater discrimination in aggressiveness among isolates in comparison to symptoms on roots. No correlations were observed between the parameters measured on leaves and roots suggesting organ specialization in this pathogen. Phoma medicaginis infected leaves of alfalfa, pea, common bean and chickpea causing necrosis and tissue yellowing at 15 d post inoculation (dpi. Pycnidium production was observed on dead and dying foliar tissues of alfalfa, pea and common bean, but not on chickpea. The pathogen caused symptoms of collar rot and brown root discoloration on alfalfa, chickpea, pea and common bean, but did not cause symptoms on leaves or roots of lentil at 15 dpi. Phoma medicaginis was more pathogenic on barrel medic, the host of origin, in comparison to the other legumes, suggesting that these species are likely to be secondary hosts for this pathogen.

  17. Validation of the German Mid-Range Climate Prediction (MiKlip) decadal ensemble prediction system using radiosonde observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Margit; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    We report validation results for three simulations by the Max-Planck-Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) ensemble prediction system (EPS), which is used for hindcasts and predictions of global-scale decadal climate variability in the framework of the German MiKlip project. Three experiments were analyzed: Baseline0 simulations with ocean anomaly field initialization, Baseline1 simulations with additional atmospheric full field initialization, and Prototype simulations with full field initialization for both ocean and atmosphere. Our validation compares homogenized radiosonde observations to the decadal ensemble hindcast projections. So far, we focused on the European region. Comparison of observed and simulated European temperature profiles showed noticeable model cold bias, about 1 K near the surface, increasing to about 3 K near the tropopause. This has implications for atmospheric stability, which is underestimated in the simulations compared to the radiosonde profiles. The simulations also tend to overestimate humidity throughout the troposphere. Both biases combine to give, e.g., much larger simulated values for standard severe weather indices, which might be interpreted as higher severe weather probability in the simulations. While Baseline 0 and Baseline 1 simulations showed no dependence of temperature bias on simulation lead years, the temperature bias of Prototype simulations increased systematically with increasing lead years. Apart from bias and probability density functions, the predictive skills of the Ensemble Prediction System were also analyzed with respect to the radiosonde observations. Here the Mean Square Error Skill Score (MSESS) and Continuously Ranked Probability Skill Scores (CRPSS) were used. For tropospheric temperatures, the full-field initialized Prototype experiments showed the best skills (MSESS and CRPSS), compared to the Baseline 0 and 1 experiments. In the stratosphere predictive skills were comparable for all experiments.

  18. Lead time for medium range prediction of the dry spell of monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The purpose of this study is to address prediction of the start date and the duration of breaks in the summer monsoon rains using multi-model superensemble. The availability of datasets from the 'observing system research and predictability experiment (THORPEX)' initiated a forecast data archive, called THORPEX ...

  19. Barcoding of Asian seabass across its geographic range provides evidence for its bifurcation into two distinct species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shubha eVij

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Asian seabass or barramundi (Lates calcarifer is an important food fish with commercial value and a wide geographic distribution. Though some reports based on molecular and/or morphological data exist, a comprehensive effort to establish species identity across its range is lacking. In order to address this issue and especially to ascertain whether the wide-spread distribution has resulted in bifurcation of the species, we collected Asian seabass samples from various locations representing the Western and Eastern Coastline of India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Bangladesh and Australia. Samples from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore were collected as part of a previous study. DNA sequence variations, including cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI, 16S rDNA and the highly variable D-loop (or control region, were examined to establish species delineation. Data from all the sequences analyzed concordantly point to the existence of at least two distinct species - one representing the Indian subcontinent plus Myanmar, and a second, representing Southeast Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia plus Northern Australia. These data are useful for conservation ecology, aquaculture management, for establishing the extent of genetic diversity in the Asian seabass and implementing selective breeding programs for members of this species complex.

  20. Predicting patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes at the rangewide scale for an endangered species: an example of an American warbler

    KAUST Repository

    Collier, Bret A.

    2011-08-25

    AIM: Our objective was to identify the distribution of the endangered golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) in fragmented oak-juniper woodlands by applying a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model to better assist decision-makers in identifying suitable habitat across the species breeding range on which conservation or mitigation activities can be focused and thus prioritize management and conservation planning. LOCATION: Texas, USA. METHODS: We used repeated double-observer detection/non-detection surveys of randomly selected (n = 287) patches of potential habitat to evaluate warbler patch-scale presence across the species breeding range. We used a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model with remotely sensed habitat metrics (patch size and landscape composition) to predict patch-scale occupancy of golden-cheeked warblers in the fragmented oak-juniper woodlands of central Texas, USA. RESULTS: Our spatially explicit model indicated that golden-cheeked warbler patch occupancy declined from south to north within the breeding range concomitant with reductions in the availability of large habitat patches. We found that 59% of woodland patches, primarily in the northern and central portions of the warbler\\'s range, were predicted to have occupancy probabilities ≤0.10 with only 3% of patches predicted to have occupancy probabilities >0.90. Our model exhibited high prediction accuracy (area under curve = 0.91) when validated using independently collected warbler occurrence data. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a distinct spatial occurrence gradient for golden-cheeked warblers as well as a relationship between two measurable landscape characteristics. Because habitat-occupancy relationships were key drivers of our model, our results can be used to identify potential areas where conservation actions supporting habitat mitigation can occur and identify areas where conservation of future potential habitat is possible. Additionally, our results can be

  1. Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moor, Helen; Hylander, Kristoffer; Norberg, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

  2. Can Species Traits Predict the Susceptibility of Riverine Fish to Water Resource Development? An Australian Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Robert J.; Sternberg, David

    2015-06-01

    Water resource developments alter riverine environments by disrupting longitudinal connectivity, transforming lotic habitats, and modifying in-stream hydraulic conditions. Effective management of anthropogenic disturbances therefore requires an understanding of the range of potential ecosystem effects and the inherent traits symptomatic of elevated vulnerability to disturbance. Using 42 riverine fish native to South Eastern Australia as a case study, we quantified six morphological, behavioral, and life-history traits to classify species into groups reflecting potential differences in their response to ecosystem changes as a result of water resource development. Classification analysis identified five strategies based on fish life-history dispersal requirements, climbing potential, and habitat preference. These strategies in turn highlight the potential species at risk from the separate impacts of water resource development and inform management decisions to mitigate those risks. Swimming ability did not contribute to distinguishing species into functional groups, likely due to methodological inconsistencies in quantifying swimming performance that may ultimately hinder the ability of fish passage facilities to function within the physical capabilities of species at risk of habitat fragmentation. This study improves our ability to predict the performance of groups of species at risk from the multiple environmental changes imposed by humans and goes beyond broad-scale dispersal requirements as a predictor of individual species response.

  3. Species richness and diversity across rocky intertidal elevation gradients in Helgoland: testing predictions from an environmental stress model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrosati, Ricardo A.; Knox, Amanda S.; Valdivia, Nelson; Molis, Markus

    2011-06-01

    Environmental stress affects species richness and diversity in communities, but the precise form of the relationship is unclear. We tested an environmental stress model (ESM) that predicts a unimodal pattern for total richness and diversity in local communities across the full stress gradient where a regional biota can occur. In 2008, we measured richness and diversity (considering all macrobenthic species) across the entire intertidal range on three rocky shores on Helgoland Island, Germany. Intertidal elevation is known to be positively related to abiotic stress. Since Helgoland is between the northern and southern biogeographic boundaries for the cold-temperate NE Atlantic intertidal biota, it exhibits low stress levels for this biota at low elevations and high stress at high elevations because of long (>6 h) emersion times. Thus, we predicted a unimodal trend for richness and diversity across elevation. On all three shores, richness increased from high to middle elevations, but remained similar between middle and low elevations. Diversity followed the same trend on one shore and different trends (although also non-unimodal) on the other two. Evenness explained the trend differences between richness and diversity. Overall, our study yielded little support for the ESM. Reasons for richness and diversity not decreasing at low elevations may be related to influences of mostly subtidal species, Helgoland's intertidal range, or sampling resolution. Our study also suggests that the ESM must be developed further to differentiate between richness and diversity. We offer recommendations to improve future ESM research using intertidal systems.

  4. Long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, Vathsala; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969-2005).

  5. Predictions replaced by facts: a keystone species' behavioural responses to declining arctic sea-ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Charmain D; Lydersen, Christian; Ims, Rolf A; Kovacs, Kit M

    2015-11-01

    Since the first documentation of climate-warming induced declines in arctic sea-ice, predictions have been made regarding the expected negative consequences for endemic marine mammals. But, several decades later, little hard evidence exists regarding the responses of these animals to the ongoing environmental changes. Herein, we report the first empirical evidence of a dramatic shift in movement patterns and foraging behaviour of the arctic endemic ringed seal (Pusa hispida), before and after a major collapse in sea-ice in Svalbard, Norway. Among other changes to the ice-regime, this collapse shifted the summer position of the marginal ice zone from over the continental shelf, northward to the deep Arctic Ocean Basin. Following this change, which is thought to be a 'tipping point', subadult ringed seals swam greater distances, showed less area-restricted search behaviour, dived for longer periods, exhibited shorter surface intervals, rested less on sea-ice and did less diving directly beneath the ice during post-moulting foraging excursions. In combination, these behavioural changes suggest increased foraging effort and thus also likely increases in the energetic costs of finding food. Continued declines in sea-ice are likely to result in distributional changes, range reductions and population declines in this keystone arctic species. © 2015 The Author(s).

  6. Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS): A web-based tool for addressing the challenges of cross-species extrapolation of chemical toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conservation of a molecular target across species can be used as a line-of-evidence to predict the likelihood of chemical susceptibility. The web-based Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool was developed to simplify, streamline, and quantitat...

  7. Accumulation of Sb, Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd by various plants species on two different relocated military shooting range soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelou, Michael W H; Hockmann, Kerstin; Pokharel, Rasesh; Jakob, Alfred; Schulin, Rainer

    2012-10-15

    Annually, more than 400 t Pb and 10 t Sb enter Swiss soils at some 2000 military shooting ranges. After the decommission of military shooting ranges, heavily contaminated soils (>2000 mg kg(-1) Pb) are landfilled or processed by soil washing, whereas for soils with less contamination, alternate strategies are sought. Although the use of military shooting ranges for grazing in Switzerland is common practice, no assessment has been done about the uptake of Sb in plants and its subsequent potential intake by grazing animals. We determined the uptake of Sb, Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd in the aboveground biomass of nine plant species growing on a calcareous (Chur) and a weakly acidic (Losone) military shooting range soil in order to assess if grazing would be safe to employ on decommissioned military shooting ranges. The two soils did not differ in their total concentrations of Cu, Zn, Sb and Cd, they differed however in the total concentration of Pb. Additionally, their physical and chemical properties were significantly different. The accumulation of Zn, Cu, Cd and Pb in the shoots of all nine plant species remained below the Swiss tolerance values for fodder plants (150 mg kg(-1) Zn, 15-35 mg kg(-1) Cu, 40 mg kg(-1) Pb, and 1 mg kg(-1) Cd DW), with the only exception of Pb in Chenopodium album shoots which reached a concentration of 62 mg kg(-1) DW. Antimony concentrations were 1.5-2.6-fold higher in plants growing on the calcareous soil than on the weakly acidic soil. Considering Cu, Zn, Pb, Sb and Cd, all plants, with the exception C. album, would be suitable for grazing on similar shooting range soils. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Regional Variation in Parasite Species Richness and Abundance in the Introduced Range of the Invasive Lionfish, Pterois volitans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Sellers

    Full Text Available Parasites can play an important role in biological invasions. While introduced species often lose parasites from their native range, they can also accumulate novel parasites in their new range. The accumulation of parasites by introduced species likely varies spatially, and more parasites may shift to new hosts where parasite diversity is high. Considering that parasitism and disease are generally more prevalent at lower latitudes, the accumulation of parasites by introduced hosts may be greater in tropical regions. The Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans has become widely distributed across the Western Atlantic. In this study, we compared parasitism across thirteen locations in four regions, spanning seventeen degrees of latitude in the lionfish's introduced range to examine potential spatial variation in parasitism. In addition, as an initial step to explore how indirect effects of parasitism might influence interactions between lionfish and ecologically similar native hosts, we also compared parasitism in lionfish and two co-occurring native fish species, the graysby grouper, Cephalopholis cruentata, and the lizardfish, Synodus intermedius, in the southernmost region, Panama. Our results show that accumulation of native parasites on lionfish varies across broad spatial scales, and that colonization by ectoparasites was highest in Panama, relative to the other study sites. Endoparasite richness and abundance, on the other hand, were highest in Belize where lionfish were infected by twice as many endoparasite species as lionfish in other regions. The prevalence of all but two parasite species infecting lionfish was below 25%, and we did not detect an association between parasite abundance and host condition, suggesting a limited direct effect of parasites on lionfish, even where parasitism was highest. Further, parasite species richness and abundance were significantly higher in both native fishes compared to lionfish, and parasite

  9. The impact of seasonality on niche breadth, distribution range and species richness: a theoretical exploration of Janzen's hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Xia

    2016-07-27

    Being invoked as one of the candidate mechanisms for the latitudinal patterns in biodiversity, Janzen's hypothesis states that the limited seasonal temperature variation in the tropics generates greater temperature stratification across elevations, which makes tropical species adapted to narrower ranges of temperatures and have lower effective dispersal across elevations than species in temperate regions. Numerous empirical studies have documented latitudinal patterns in species elevational ranges and thermal niche breadths that are consistent with the hypothesis, but the theoretical underpinnings remain unclear. This study presents the first mathematical model to examine the evolutionary processes that could back up Janzen's hypothesis and assess the effectiveness of limited seasonal temperature variation to promote speciation along elevation in the tropics. Results suggest that trade-offs in thermal tolerances provide a mechanism for Janzen's hypothesis. Limited seasonal temperature variation promotes gradient speciation not due to the reduction in gene flow that is associated with narrow thermal niche, but due to the pleiotropic effects of more stable divergent selection of thermal tolerance on the evolution of reproductive incompatibility. The proposed modelling approach also provides a potential way to test a speciation model against genetic data. © 2016 The Author(s).

  10. Infection of non-host model plant species with the narrow-host-range Cacao swollen shoot virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friscina, Arianna; Chiappetta, Laura; Jacquemond, Mireille; Tepfer, Mark

    2017-02-01

    Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) is a major pathogen of cacao (Theobroma cacao) in Africa, and long-standing efforts to limit its spread by the culling of infected trees have had very limited success. CSSV is a particularly difficult virus to study, as it has a very narrow host range, limited to several tropical tree species. Furthermore, the virus is not mechanically transmissible, and its insect vector can only be used with difficulty. Thus, the only efficient means to infect cacao plants that have been experimentally described so far are by particle bombardment or the agroinoculation of cacao plants with an infectious clone. We have genetically transformed three non-host species with an infectious form of the CSSV genome: two experimental hosts widely used in plant virology (Nicotiana tabacum and N. benthamiana) and the model species Arabidopsis thaliana. In transformed plants of all three species, the CSSV genome was able to replicate, and, in tobacco, CSSV particles could be observed by immunosorbent electron microscopy, demonstrating that the complete virus cycle could be completed in a non-host plant. These results will greatly facilitate the preliminary testing of CSSV control strategies using plants that are easy to raise and to transform genetically. © 2016 BSPP AND JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD.

  11. Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

  12. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking.

  13. A Hybrid Finite Element/Helmholtz-Kirchhoff-Integral Model for Shooting Range Sound Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijhof, M.J.J.; Eerden, F.J.M. van der

    2013-01-01

    National legislation enforces a limit on the Sound Levels of outdoor military shooting ranges observed in nearby residential areas. These restrictions directly influence the number of shots that may be fired at a specific shooting range, which may conflict with the required/ scheduled training

  14. Relations between species rarity, vulnerability, and range contraction for a beetle group in a densely populated region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone

    2014-02-01

    Rarity is often considered an indication of species extinction risk, and it is frequently used to obtain measures of species vulnerability. However, there is no strong evidence of a correlation between species vulnerability and threat. Moreover, there is no consensus about how rarity should be measured. I used a multidimensional characterization of species rarity to calculate a vulnerability index for tenebrionid beetles inhabiting an Italian region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. I used different metrics to examine 3 dimensions of rarity: species range, ecology, and population. Species with rarity values below the median were scored as rare for each dimension. I combined rarity scores into a vulnerability index. I then correlated species vulnerability with range trends (expanded vs. contracted). Different measures of the same rarity dimension were strongly correlated and produced similar vulnerability scores. This result indicates rarity-based vulnerability estimates are slightly affected by the way a certain rarity dimension is measured. Vulnerability was correlated with range trends; species with the highest vulnerability had the strongest range contraction. However, a large number of common species also underwent range contraction in the last 50 years, and there was no clear relation between range contraction and their ecology. This indicates that in general human-induced environmental changes affected species irrespective of their assumed vulnerability and that focusing only on rare species may severely bias perceptions of the extent of species decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; hide

    2014-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

  16. Phylogeographic pattern of range expansion provides evidence for cryptic species lineages in Silene nutans in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, H; Touzet, P; Van Rossum, F; Delalande, D; Arnaud, J-F

    2016-03-01

    As a result of recent or past evolutionary processes, a single species might consist of distinct Evolutionary Significant Units (ESUs), even corresponding to cryptic species. Determining the underlying mechanisms of range shifts and the processes at work in the build-up of divergent ESUs requires elucidating the factors that contribute to population genetic divergence across a species' range. We investigated the large-scale patterns of genetic structure in the perennial herbaceous plant species Silene nutans (Caryophyllaceae) in Western Europe. We sampled and genotyped 111 populations using 13 nuclear microsatellite loci and 6 plastid single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Broad-scale spatial population genetic structure was examined using Bayesian clustering, spatial multivariate analyses and measures of hierarchical genetic differentiation. The genotypic structure of S. nutans was typical of a predominantly allogamous mating system. We also identified plastid lineages with no intra-population polymorphism, mirroring two genetically differentiated nuclear lineages. No evidence of admixture was found. Spatial trends in genetic diversity further suggested independent leading-edge expansion associated with founding events and subsequent genetic erosion. Overall, our findings suggested speciation processes in S. nutans and highlighted striking patterns of distinct stepwise recolonisation of Western Europe shaped by Quaternary climate oscillations. Two main potential ESUs can be defined in Western Europe, corresponding to Eastern and Western nuclear-plastid lineages. In situ preservation of populations and genetic rescue implying ex situ conservation techniques should take the lineage identity into account. This is particularly true in Great Britain, northern France and Belgium, where S. nutans is rare and where distinct lineages co-occur in close contact.

  17. Can REDD+ help the conservation of restricted-range island species? Insights from the endemism hotspot of São Tomé.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, Ricardo Faustino; Olmos, Fábio; Dallimer, Martin; Atkinson, Philip W; Barlow, Jos

    2013-01-01

    REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through "Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation". Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe) as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species.

  18. Can REDD+ help the conservation of restricted-range island species? Insights from the endemism hotspot of São Tomé.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Faustino de Lima

    Full Text Available REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through "Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation". Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species.

  19. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one......, and model skill typically did not outperform a null model assuming distributions to be constant in time. The predicted prevalence increasingly differed from the observed prevalence for predictions with more distance in time from their training dataset. More detailed investigations based on four focal...... species revealed that strong spatial variations in skill exist, with the least skill at the edges of the distributions, where prevalence is lowest. Furthermore, the scores of traditional single-value model performance metrics were contrasting and some implied overoptimistic conclusions about model skill...

  20. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

  1. Bayesian prediction of bacterial growth temperature range based on genome sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dan Børge; Vesth, Tammi Camilla; Hallin, Peter Fischer

    2012-01-01

    Background: The preferred habitat of a given bacterium can provide a hint of which types of enzymes of potential industrial interest it might produce. These might include enzymes that are stable and active at very high or very low temperatures. Being able to accurately predict this based on a gen...... and psychrophilic adapted bacterial genomes....

  2. A short-range weather prediction system for South Africa based on a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    At many operational weather prediction centres, as is also the case at the South African Weather Service, forecasters use deterministic model outputs as guidance to produce subjective probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The aim of this research was to determine the skill of a new objective multi-model, multi-institute probabilistic ...

  3. A short-range multi-model ensemble weather prediction system for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, S

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available prediction system (EPS) at the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are examined. The ensemble consists of different forecasts from the 12-km LAM of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) covering the South...

  4. Improvement of Surface Temperature Prediction Using SVR with MOGREPS Data for Short and Medium range over South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, S. J.; Choi, R. K.; Ahn, K. D.; Ha, J. C.; Cho, C. H.

    2014-12-01

    As the Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) has operated Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) with introduction of Unified Model (UM), many attempts have been made to improve predictability in temperature forecast in last years. In this study, post-processing method of MOGREPS for surface temperature prediction is developed with machine learning over 52 locations in South Korea. Past 60-day lag time was used as a training phase of Support Vector Regression (SVR) method for surface temperature forecast model. The selected inputs for SVR are followings: date and surface temperatures from Numerical Weather prediction (NWP), such as GDAPS, individual 24 ensemble members, mean and median of ensemble members for every 3hours for 12 days.To verify the reliability of SVR-based ensemble prediction (SVR-EP), 93 days are used (from March 1 to May 31, 2014). The result yielded improvement of SVR-EP by RMSE value of 16 % throughout entire prediction period against conventional ensemble prediction (EP). In particular, short range predictability of SVR-EP resulted in 18.7% better RMSE for 1~3 day forecast. The mean temperature bias between SVR-EP and EP at all test locations showed around 0.36°C and 1.36°C, respectively. SVR-EP is currently extending for more vigorous sensitivity test, such as increasing training phase and optimizing machine learning model.

  5. Prediction of object detection, recognition, and identification [DRI] ranges at color scene images based on quantifying human color contrast perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinsky, Ephi; Levin, Ilia; Yaron, Ofer

    2016-10-01

    We propose a novel approach to predict, for specified color imaging system and for objects with known characteristics, their detection, recognition, identification (DRI) ranges in a colored dynamic scene, based on quantifying the human color contrast perception. The method refers to the well established L*a*b*, 3D color space. The nonlinear relations of this space are intended to mimic the nonlinear response of the human eye. The metrics of L*a*b* color space is such that the Euclidian distance between any two colors in this space is approximately proportional to the color contrast as perceived by the human eye/brain. The result of this metrics leads to the outcome that color contrast of any two points is always greater (or equal) than their equivalent grey scale contrast. This meets our sense that looking on a colored image, contrast is superior to the gray scale contrast of the same image. Yet, color loss by scattering at very long ranges should be considered as well. The color contrast derived from the distance between the colored object pixels and to the nearby colored background pixels, as derived from the L*a*b* color space metrics, is expressed in terms of gray scale contrast. This contrast replaces the original standard gray scale contrast component of that image. As expected, the resulted DRI ranges are, in most cases, larger than those predicted by the standard gray scale image. Upon further elaboration and validation of this method, it may be combined with the next versions of the well accepted TRM codes for DRI predictions. Consistent prediction of DRI ranges implies a careful evaluation of the object and background color contrast reduction along the range. Clearly, additional processing for reconstructing the objects and background true colors and hence the color contrast along the range, will further increase the DRI ranges.

  6. Outstanding micro-endemism in New Caledonia: More than one out of ten animal species have a very restricted distribution range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caesar, Maram; Grandcolas, Philippe; Pellens, Roseli

    2017-01-01

    New Caledonia is a biodiversity hotspot, with an extremely high number of endemic species with narrow distribution ranges that are at high risk of extinction due to open-cast nickel mining, invasive species and seasonal man-induced fires. Mentions of micro-endemism permeate the literature on the biota of this archipelago. However, so far there has been no research comparing distribution range in different animal groups. The aim of this study is to examine the implication of different sampling effort variables in order to distinguish micro-endemicity from data deficiency, and evaluate the distribution range, frequency, and extent to which micro-endemism is common to several groups of organisms. We compiled a dataset derived from publications in Zoologia Neocaledonica, comprising 1,149 species, of which 86% are endemic to New Caledonia. We found that the sampling effort variables that were best correlated with distribution range were the number of sampling dates and the number of collectors per species. The median value of sampling dates was used to establish a cut-off point for defining adequately sampled species. We showed that, although only 52% of species were sampled adequately enough to determine their distribution range, the number of species with a very narrow distribution range was still high. Among endemics from New Caledonia, 12% (116 species) have ranges ≤5.2km2 and 3.9% (38 species) have ranges between 23 and 100 km2. Surprisingly, a similar trend was observed in non-endemic species: 22% occurred in areas ≤ 5.2 km2, and 8% in areas 23-100 km2, suggesting that environmental dissimilarity may play an important role in the distribution of these species. Micro-endemic species were predominant in 18 out of 20 orders. These results will contribute to a re-assessment of the IUCN red list of species in this archipelago, indicating that at least 116 species are probably critically endangered.

  7. Belowground Plant–Herbivore Interactions Vary among Climate-Driven Range-Expanding Plant Species with Different Degrees of Novel Chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutger A. Wilschut

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of studies report plant range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to global warming. However, consequences for interactions with other species in the novel ranges are poorly understood. Here, we examine how range-expanding plant species interact with root-feeding nematodes from the new range. Root-feeding nematodes are ubiquitous belowground herbivores that may impact the structure and composition of natural vegetation. Because of their ecological novelty, we hypothesized that range-expanding plant species will be less suitable hosts for root-feeding nematodes than native congeneric plant species. In greenhouse and lab trials we compared nematode preference and performance of two root-feeding nematode species between range-expanding plant species and their congeneric natives. In order to understand differences in nematode preferences, we compared root volatile profiles of all range-expanders and congeneric natives. Nematode preferences and performances differed substantially among the pairs of range-expanders and natives. The range-expander that had the most unique volatile profile compared to its related native was unattractive and a poor host for nematodes. Other range-expanding plant species that differed less in root chemistry from native congeners, also differed less in nematode attraction and performance. We conclude that the three climate-driven range-expanding plant species studied varied considerably in their chemical novelty compared to their congeneric natives, and therefore affected native root-feeding nematodes in species-specific ways. Our data suggest that through variation in chemical novelty, range-expanding plant species may vary in their impacts on belowground herbivores in the new range.

  8. Use of basic biological information for rapid prediction of the response of species to habitat loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hockey, Philip A R; Curtis, Odette E

    2009-02-01

    Much research has focused on identifying traits that can act as useful indicators of how habitat loss affects the extinction risk of species, and the results are mixed. We developed 2 simple, rapid-assessment models of the susceptibility of species to habitat loss. We based both on an index of range size, but one also incorporated an index of body mass and the other an index combining habitat and dietary specialization. We applied the models to samples of birds (Accipitridae and Bucerotidae) and to the lemurs of Madagascar and compared the models' classifications of risk with the IUCN's global threat status of each species. The model derived from ecological attributes was much more robust than the one derived from body mass. Ecological attributes identified threatened birds and lemurs with an average of 80% accuracy and endangered and critically endangered species with 100% accuracy and identified some species not currently listed as threatened that almost certainly warrant conservation consideration. Appropriate analysis of even fairly crude biological information can help raise early-warning flags to the relative susceptibilities of species to habitat loss and thus provide a useful and rapid technique for highlighting potential species-level conservation issues. Advantages of this approach to classifying risk include flexibility in the specialization parameters used as well as its applicability at a range of spatial scales.

  9. Short-range dynamics and prediction of mesoscale flow patterns in the MISTRAL field experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R.O.; Kaufmann, P.; Talkner, P. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    In a limited area of about 50 km by 50 km with complex topography, wind measurements on a dense network were performed during the MISTRAL field experiment in 1991-1992. From these data the characteristic wind fields were identified by an automated classification method. The dynamics of the resulting twelve typical regional flow patterns is studied. It is discussed how transitions between the flow patterns take place and how well the transition probabilities can be described in the framework of a Markov model. Guided by this discussion, a variety of prediction models were tested which allow a short-term forecast of the flow pattern type. It is found that a prediction model which uses forecast information from the synoptic scale has the best forecast skill. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  10. Detection of gastric Helicobacter species in free-ranging lynx (Lynx lynx) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Torsten; Bröjer, Caroline; Ryser-Degiorgis, Marie-Pierre; Gavier-Widén, Dolores; Nilsson, Hans-Olof; Wadström, Torkel

    2008-07-01

    Specimens of gastric mucosa and liver of 25 free-ranging Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and four red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) shot in Sweden during 1999-2000, were investigated for the presence of Helicobacter species. Histopathology, bacteriologic culture and urease test, Helicobacter genus-specific 16S rDNA PCR analysis, and DNA sequence analysis were applied. Numerous Helicobacter-like organisms were observed histologically in the gastric mucosa of one fox. Helicobacter spp. were detected in the stomach by PCR analysis in 17 (68%) of the lynx and in three (75%) of the foxes. Seven of the positive lynx were also positive in the urease test. PCR fragments, amplified from lynx and foxes, were sequenced and compared with those of known Helicobacter species. PCR products from lynx were closely related (>or=98% homology) to H. heilmannii, and PCR fragments from foxes demonstrated close homology to H. heilmannii and H. salomonis. No Helicobacter spp. or Helicobacter-like organisms could be cultured. The PCR analysis of the liver was negative for all animals. The pathologic significance of the presence of Helicobacter spp. in the stomach of free-ranging lynx and foxes remains uncertain.

  11. Wind speed and wind power short and medium range predictions for complex terrain using artificial neural networks and ensemble calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schicker, Irene; Papazek, Petrina; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

    2017-04-01

    Reliable predictions of wind speed and wind power are vital for balancing the electricity network. Within the last two decades the amount of energy stemming from renewable sources increased substantially relying heavily on the prevailing synoptic conditions. Especially for regions with complex terrain and forested surfaces providing reliable predictions is a challenging task. Forecasts in the nowcasting as well as in the (two) day-ahead range are thus essential for the network balancing. Predictions of wind speed and wind power from the nowcasting to the +72-hour forecast range using NWP models in regions with complex terrain need a suitable horizontal, vertical and temporal resolution (e.g. 10 - 15 minute forecasts for the Nowcasting range) requiring high performance computing. To be able to provide sub-hourly to hourly forecasts different approaches such as model output statistics (MOS) or artificial neural networks (ANN) - including feed forward recurrent neural networks, fuzzy logic, particle swarm optimizations - are needed as computational costs are too high. To represent the forecast uncertainties additional probabilistic ensemble predictions are required increasing the computational needs. Ensemble prediction systems account for errors and uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, parameterizations, numeric, etc. Due to the underestimation of model and sampling errors ensemble predictions tend to be underdispersive and biased. They lack, too, sharpness and reliability. These shortcomings can be accounted for using statistical post-processing methods such as the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) to calibrate an ensemble. These calibrated ensembles provide forecasts in the medium range for any arbitrary location where observations are available. In this study an ANN is used to provide forecasts for the nowcasting and medium-range with sub-hourly to hourly predictions for different Austrian sites, including high alpine sites as well as low

  12. Predicting animal home-range structure and transitions using a multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck biased random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breed, Greg A; Golson, Emily A.; Tinker, M. Tim

    2017-01-01

    The home-range concept is central in animal ecology and behavior, and numerous mechanistic models have been developed to understand home range formation and maintenance. These mechanistic models usually assume a single, contiguous home range. Here we describe and implement a simple home-range model that can accommodate multiple home-range centers, form complex shapes, allow discontinuities in use patterns, and infer how external and internal variables affect movement and use patterns. The model assumes individuals associate with two or more home-range centers and move among them with some estimable probability. Movement in and around home-range centers is governed by a two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, while transitions between centers are modeled as a stochastic state-switching process. We augmented this base model by introducing environmental and demographic covariates that modify transition probabilities between home-range centers and can be estimated to provide insight into the movement process. We demonstrate the model using telemetry data from sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in California. The model was fit using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which estimated transition probabilities, as well as unique Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion and centralizing tendency parameters. Estimated parameters could then be used to simulate movement and space use that was virtually indistinguishable from real data. We used Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores to assess model fit and determined that both wind and reproductive status were predictive of transitions between home-range centers. Females were less likely to move between home-range centers on windy days, less likely to move between centers when tending pups, and much more likely to move between centers just after weaning a pup. These tendencies are predicted by theoretical movement rules but were not previously known and show that our model can extract meaningful behavioral insight from complex

  13. EEG transients in the sigma range during non-REM sleep predict learning in dogs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iotchev, I.B.; Kis, A.; Bodizs, R.; Luijtelaar, E.L.J.M. van; Kubinyi, E.

    2017-01-01

    Sleep spindles are phasic bursts of thalamo-cortical activity, visible in the cortex as transient oscillations in the sigma range (usually defined in humans as 12-14 or 9-16 Hz). They have been associated with sleep-dependent memory consolidation and sleep stability in humans and rodents.

  14. Lead time for medium range prediction of the dry spell of monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The mon- soon applications for numerical weather predic- tion were recently addressed by Krishnamurti et al. (2009), who noted medium range forecast improve- ments of precipitation for timescale of roughly five days. These promising studies lead us to ask for more specific phenomenological applications for the monsoon ...

  15. Fractal geometry predicts varying body size scaling relationships for mammal and bird home ranges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haskell, John P.; Ritchie, Mark E.; Olff, Han

    2002-01-01

    Scaling laws that describe complex interactions between organisms and their environment as a function of body size offer exciting potential for synthesis in biology. Home range size, or the area used by individual organisms, is a critical ecological variable that integrates behaviour, physiology and

  16. Fractal geometry predicts varying body size scaling relationships for mammal and bird home ranges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haskell, J.P.; Ritchie, M.E.; Olff, H.

    2002-01-01

    Scaling laws that describe complex interactions between organisms and their environment as a function of body size offer exciting potential for synthesis in biology(1-4). Home range size, or the area used by individual organisms, is a critical ecological variable that integrates behaviour,

  17. Progress in sensor performance testing, modeling and range prediction using the TOD method : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl, P.; Hogervorst, M.A.; Toet, A.

    2017-01-01

    The Triangle Orientation Discrimination (TOD) methodology includes i) a widely applicable, accurate end-to-end EO/IR sensor test, ii) an image-based sensor system model and iii) a Target Acquisition (TA) range model. The method has been extensively validated against TA field performance for a wide

  18. Wrong place, wrong time: climate change-induced range shift across fragmented habitat causes maladaptation and declined population size in a modelled bird species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, M.M.P.; Verboom, J.; Opdam, P.F.M.; Hoekstra, R.F.; Jochem, R.; Smulders, M.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Many species are locally adapted to decreased habitat quality at their range margins, and therefore show genetic differences throughout their ranges. Under contemporary climate change, range shifts may affect evolutionary processes at the expanding range margin due to founder events. Additionally,

  19. Predicting invasive species impacts: a community module functional response approach reveals context dependencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Rachel A; Dick, Jaimie T A; Pritchard, Daniel W; Ennis, Marilyn; Hatcher, Melanie J; Dunn, Alison M

    2015-03-01

    Predatory functional responses play integral roles in predator-prey dynamics, and their assessment promises greater understanding and prediction of the predatory impacts of invasive species. Other interspecific interactions, however, such as parasitism and higher-order predation, have the potential to modify predator-prey interactions and thus the predictive capability of the comparative functional response approach. We used a four-species community module (higher-order predator; focal native or invasive predators; parasites of focal predators; native prey) to compare the predatory functional responses of native Gammarus duebeni celticus and invasive Gammarus pulex amphipods towards three invertebrate prey species (Asellus aquaticus, Simulium spp., Baetis rhodani), thus, quantifying the context dependencies of parasitism and a higher-order fish predator on these functional responses. Our functional response experiments demonstrated that the invasive amphipod had a higher predatory impact (lower handling time) on two of three prey species, which reflects patterns of impact observed in the field. The community module also revealed that parasitism had context-dependent influences, for one prey species, with the potential to further reduce the predatory impact of the invasive amphipod or increase the predatory impact of the native amphipod in the presence of a higher-order fish predator. Partial consumption of prey was similar for both predators and occurred increasingly in the order A. aquaticus, Simulium spp. and B. rhodani. This was associated with increasing prey densities, but showed no context dependencies with parasitism or higher-order fish predator. This study supports the applicability of comparative functional responses as a tool to predict and assess invasive species impacts incorporating multiple context dependencies. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

  20. Global daily precipitation analysis for the validation of medium-range climate predictions (DAPACLIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzsch, Felix; Andersson, Axel; Schröder, Marc; Ziese, Markus; Becker, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    The Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany funds the research programme "Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen" (MiKlip) with the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable forecasts on climate and weather, including extreme weather events. It is of central importance for the development process of the Miklip system to validate the decadal prediction system based upon data and processes during the development stages. An essential part of the evaluation procedure will be the application of satellite derived datasets to assess the aspired model system with respect to atmospheric water cycle components including precipitation, clouds and related changes in the radiation budget. Within the MiKlip DAPACLIP project new precipitation products suitable for the evaluation of the MiKlip prediction system were developed in close contact with the modelling community. These new datasets are used to evaluate precipitation from global and regional decadal MiKlip hindcasts on a daily time scale, including the statistical analysis of extreme precipitation events. The DAPACLIP dataset covers the time period from 1988 to 2008. It is available in 1° and 2.5° resolution for global coverage as well as in 0.5° resolution for the European domain. The dataset consists of a combination of an in-situ based precipitation analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and a new version of the satellite-derived Hamburg Ocean Atmospheric Parameters and fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS) precipitation analysis over ocean surfaces. Verification results from comparisons between the DAPACLIP dataset and different precipitation products and datasets over land and ocean will be shown. Here, APHRODITE, PACRAIN and TRMM 3B42 daily have been used as verification datasets. Furthermore we provide first results from the evaluation of MiKlip Decadal Prediction System historical runs and hindcasts. The evaluation focuses on precipitation intensity and frequency, e.g. in

  1. Alteration of sexual reproduction and genetic diversity in the kelp species Laminaria digitata at the southern limit of its range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Valeria Oppliger

    Full Text Available Adaptation to marginal habitats at species range-limits has often been associated with parthenogenetic reproduction in terrestrial animals and plants. Laboratory observations have shown that brown algae exhibit a high propensity for parthenogenesis by various mechanisms. The kelp Laminaria digitata is an important component of the ecosystem in Northern European rocky intertidal habitats. We studied four L. digitata populations for the effects of marginality on genetic diversity and sexual reproduction. Two populations were marginal: One (Locquirec, in Northern Brittany was well within the geographic range, but was genetically isolated from other populations by large stretches of sandy beaches. Another population was at the range limits of the species (Quiberon, in Southern Brittany and was exposed to much higher seasonal temperature changes. Microsatellite analyses confirmed that these populations showed decreased genetic and allelic diversity, consistent with marginality and genetic isolation. Sporophytes from both marginal populations showed greatly diminished spore-production compared to central populations, but only the southern-limit population (Quiberon showed a high propensity for producing unreduced (2N spores. Unreduced 2N spores formed phenotypically normal gametophytes with nuclear area consistent with ≥2N DNA contents, and microsatellite studies suggested these were produced at least in part by automixis. However, despite this being the dominant path of spore production in Quiberon sporophyte individuals, the genetic evidence indicated the population was maintained mostly by sexual reproduction. Thus, although spore production and development showed the expected tendency of geographical parthenogenesis in marginal populations, this appeared to be a consequence of maladaptation, rather than an adaptation to, life in a marginal habitat.

  2. Habitat fragmentation and species extirpation in freshwater ecosystems; causes of range decline of the Indus river dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulik, Gill T; Arshad, Masood; Noureen, Uzma; Northridge, Simon P

    2014-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing rapidly, however the understanding of extinction debt and species decline in riverine habitat fragments lags behind that in other ecosystems. The mighty rivers that drain the Himalaya - the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong and Yangtze - are amongst the world's most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. Many hundreds of dams have been constructed, are under construction, or are planned on these rivers and large hydrological changes and losses of biodiversity have occurred and are expected to continue. This study examines the causes of range decline of the Indus dolphin, which inhabits one of the world's most modified rivers, to demonstrate how we may expect other vertebrate populations to respond as planned dams and water developments come into operation. The historical range of the Indus dolphin has been fragmented into 17 river sections by diversion dams; dolphin sighting and interview surveys show that river dolphins have been extirpated from ten river sections, they persist in 6, and are of unknown status in one section. Seven potential factors influencing the temporal and spatial pattern of decline were considered in three regression model sets. Low dry-season river discharge, due to water abstraction at irrigation barrages, was the principal factor that explained the dolphin's range decline, influencing 1) the spatial pattern of persistence, 2) the temporal pattern of subpopulation extirpation, and 3) the speed of extirpation after habitat fragmentation. Dolphins were more likely to persist in the core of the former range because water diversions are concentrated near the range periphery. Habitat fragmentation and degradation of the habitat were inextricably intertwined and in combination caused the catastrophic decline of the Indus dolphin.

  3. Habitat fragmentation and species extirpation in freshwater ecosystems; causes of range decline of the Indus river dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gill T Braulik

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing rapidly, however the understanding of extinction debt and species decline in riverine habitat fragments lags behind that in other ecosystems. The mighty rivers that drain the Himalaya - the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong and Yangtze - are amongst the world's most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. Many hundreds of dams have been constructed, are under construction, or are planned on these rivers and large hydrological changes and losses of biodiversity have occurred and are expected to continue. This study examines the causes of range decline of the Indus dolphin, which inhabits one of the world's most modified rivers, to demonstrate how we may expect other vertebrate populations to respond as planned dams and water developments come into operation. The historical range of the Indus dolphin has been fragmented into 17 river sections by diversion dams; dolphin sighting and interview surveys show that river dolphins have been extirpated from ten river sections, they persist in 6, and are of unknown status in one section. Seven potential factors influencing the temporal and spatial pattern of decline were considered in three regression model sets. Low dry-season river discharge, due to water abstraction at irrigation barrages, was the principal factor that explained the dolphin's range decline, influencing 1 the spatial pattern of persistence, 2 the temporal pattern of subpopulation extirpation, and 3 the speed of extirpation after habitat fragmentation. Dolphins were more likely to persist in the core of the former range because water diversions are concentrated near the range periphery. Habitat fragmentation and degradation of the habitat were inextricably intertwined and in combination caused the catastrophic decline of the Indus dolphin.

  4. Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

    2017-06-01

    Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

  5. Cross-Species Extrapolation of Models for Predicting Lead Transfer from Soil to Wheat Grain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Liu

    Full Text Available The transfer of Pb from the soil to crops is a serious food hygiene security problem in China because of industrial, agricultural, and historical contamination. In this study, the characteristics of exogenous Pb transfer from 17 Chinese soils to a popular wheat variety (Xiaoyan 22 were investigated. In addition, bioaccumulation prediction models of Pb in grain were obtained based on soil properties. The results of the analysis showed that pH and OC were the most important factors contributing to Pb uptake by wheat grain. Using a cross-species extrapolation approach, the Pb uptake prediction models for cultivar Xiaoyan 22 in different soil Pb levels were satisfactorily applied to six additional non-modeled wheat varieties to develop a prediction model for each variety. Normalization of the bioaccumulation factor (BAF to specific soil physico-chemistry is essential, because doing so could significantly reduce the intra-species variation of different wheat cultivars in predicted Pb transfer and eliminate the influence of soil properties on ecotoxicity parameters for organisms of interest. Finally, the prediction models were successfully verified against published data (including other wheat varieties and crops and used to evaluate the ecological risk of Pb for wheat in contaminated agricultural soils.

  6. EEG Transients in the Sigma Range During non-REM Sleep Predict Learning in Dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iotchev, Ivaylo Borislavov; Kis, Anna; Bódizs, Róbert; van Luijtelaar, Gilles; Kubinyi, Enikő

    2017-10-11

    Sleep spindles are phasic bursts of thalamo-cortical activity, visible in the cortex as transient oscillations in the sigma range (usually defined in humans as 12-14 or 9-16 Hz). They have been associated with sleep-dependent memory consolidation and sleep stability in humans and rodents. Occurrence, frequency, amplitude and duration of sleep spindles co-vary with age, sex and psychiatric conditions. Spindle analogue activity in dogs has been qualitatively described, but never quantified and related to function. In the present study we used an adjusted version of a detection method previously validated in children to test whether detections in the dogs show equivalent functional correlates as described in the human literature. We found that the density of EEG transients in the 9-16 Hz range during non-REM sleep relates to memory and is characterized by sexual dimorphism similarly as in humans. The number of transients/minute was larger in the learning condition and for female dogs, and correlated with the increase of performance during recall. It can be concluded that in dogs, automatic detections in the 9-16 Hz range, in particular the slow variant (<13 Hz), are functional analogues of human spindles.

  7. Deriving acute and chronic predicted no effect concentrations of pharmaceuticals and personal care products based on species sensitivity distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenxing; Wang, Bin; Wang, Yujue; Deng, Shubo; Huang, Jun; Yu, Gang

    2017-10-01

    Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), as emerging contaminants, have been detected in various environmental matrices and caused adverse effects on human health and the ecosystem. But water quality criterias (WQCs) of PPCPs for protecting aquatic environment are lacking, which hinders the environmental management of these emerging contaminants. In the present study, in order to support their WQC derivation, acute and chronic hazardous concentrations for 5% of species (HC5s) of some frequently detected PPCPs in China were calculated based on acute and chronic species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), respectively, using both parametric (log-normal and log-logistic) and nonparametric bootstrap approaches. The groups of aquatic species used in SSDs included planktons, zooplanktons, invertebrates and vertebrates. Acute and chronic predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived from the HC5s. The acute PNECs of the selected PPCPs were in a range from 1.1 to 4993μg/L. While the chronic PNECs were one or two orders of magnitude lower than the acute PNECs, with a range from 0.02 to 298μg/L. Among these PPCPs, the compound with the highest acute effect on the aquatic environment was clarithromycin while erythromycin was the one with the highest chronic toxicity effect. Among the studied PPCPs, erythromycin caused a relatively higher aquatic ecological risk in China. This study helps derive WQCs of PPCPs in the aquatic environment, which is essential for environmental managment of these emerging contaminants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Dirk; Brayshaw, David; Methven, John; Drew, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this work, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state. The bounds of skillful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB) is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6-8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4-2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5-5.5 days). The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users) or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days).

  9. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... of the longest running and most extensive marine biological monitoring programs, to investigate the reliability of predicted plankton distributions. We apply three commonly used SDMs to 20 representative plankton species, including copepods, diatoms, and dinoflagellates, all found in the North Atlantic....... Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against...

  10. Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

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    Jonathan Lenoir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region to quantify four diversity components: (i total number of species occurring in a region (total γ-diversity, (ii number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific γ-diversity, (iii pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot β-diversity and (iv number of species present per plot (plot α-diversity. We found strong region effects on total γ-diversity, habitat-specific γ-diversity and plot-to-plot β-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot α-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges, but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Our findings are consistent with the contrasting regional Quaternary histories, but we also consider alternative explanatory models. Notably, ecological sorting and habitat connectivity may play a role in the unexpected limited or reversed region effect on plot α-diversity, and may also affect the larger-scale diversity

  11. Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir, Jonathan; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Guisan, Antoine; Vittoz, Pascal; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Dullinger, Stefan; Pauli, Harald; Willner, Wolfgang; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Virtanen, Risto; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-12-22

    The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities? We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region) to quantify four diversity components: (i) total number of species occurring in a region (total γ-diversity), (ii) number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific γ-diversity), (iii) pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot β-diversity) and (iv) number of species present per plot (plot α-diversity). We found strong region effects on total γ-diversity, habitat-specific γ-diversity and plot-to-plot β-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot α-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots. We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale) diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges, but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale) diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Our findings are consistent with the contrasting regional Quaternary histories, but we also consider alternative explanatory models. Notably, ecological sorting and habitat connectivity may play a role in the unexpected limited or reversed region effect on plot α-diversity, and may also affect the larger-scale diversity components. For instance, plot connectivity and/or selection for high dispersal

  12. Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

    2018-01-01

    To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute

  13. Validation of a short-range ensemble precipitation prediction system over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Muñoz, D.; Martin, M. L.; Valero, F.; Luna, M. Y.; Morata, A.; Sebastian, L. I.

    2009-09-01

    A short-range ensemble precipitation forecast system has been constructed over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearics by means of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Centre for Atmospheric Research Model (MM5). The ensemble system consists of ten members, each run with a different combination of two different initial conditions from global models, IFS-ECMWF and GFS-NCEP, and five different subgrid-scale physics configurations for three months period of 2006. The mesoscale verification is made by using observational precipitation data of the Spanish Climatic Network. To ensure the quality individual members the forecast distribution of each member has been studied, showing good agreement with the observed precipitation distribution. The created short-range ensemble shows high spread-skill correlation values for daily precipitation. However, the asymmetric shape of the rank histogram indicates some underdispersion, suggesting an under-forecasting behaviour. Talagrand diagrams have been created for different precipitation thresholds to analyze more deeply the system calibration, showing a nearly flat shape on the lower bins and a clear accumulation on the higher interval, indicating that the system is well bias affected. The Relative Operating Characteristic curves show a very outstanding area indicating the good discrimination capacity for each of the thresholds. The reliability diagrams are also indicative of the good reliability of the forecasting system, depicting in general good agreement between forecast probability and the mean observed frequency. Because of that, the verification proves the usefulness of the forecasting system over the study area.

  14. Prediction of steps in the evolution of variola virus host range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad Smithson

    Full Text Available Variola virus, the agent of smallpox, has a severely restricted host range (humans but a devastatingly high mortality rate. Although smallpox has been eradicated by a World Health Organization vaccination program, knowledge of the evolutionary processes by which human super-pathogens such as variola virus arise is important. By analyzing the evolution of variola and other closely related poxviruses at the level of single nucleotide polymorphisms we detected a hotspot of genome variation within the smallpox ortholog of the vaccinia virus O1L gene, which is known to be necessary for efficient replication of vaccinia virus in human cells. These mutations in the variola virus ortholog and the subsequent loss of the functional gene from camelpox virus and taterapox virus, the two closest relatives of variola virus, strongly suggest that changes within this region of the genome may have played a key role in the switch to humans as a host for the ancestral virus and the subsequent host-range restriction that must have occurred to create the phenotype exhibited by smallpox.

  15. Performance Predictions of Dry and Wet Vapors Ejectors Over Entire Operational Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenglei Li

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available If a traditional ideal-gas ejector model is used to evaluate the performance of a wet vapor ejector, large deviations from the experimental results will be unavoidable. Moreover, the model usually fails to assess the ejector performance at subcritical mode. In this paper, we proposed a novel model to evaluate the performance of both dry and wet vapors ejectors over the entire operational range at critical or subcritical modes. The model was obtained by integrating the linear characteristic equations of ejector with critical and breakdown points models, which were developed based on the assumptions of constant-pressure mixing and constant-pressure disturbing. In the models, the equations of the two-phase speed of sound and the property of real gas were introduced and ejector component efficiencies were optimized to improve the accuracy of evaluation. It was validated that the proposed model for the entire operational range can achieve a better performance than those existing for R134a, R141b and R245fa. The critical and breakdown points models were further used to investigate the effect of operational parameters on the performance of an ejector refrigeration system (ERS. The theoretical results indicated that decreasing the saturated generating temperature when the actual condensing temperature decreases, and/or increasing the saturated evaporating temperature can improve the performance of ERS significantly. Moreover, superheating the primary flow before it enters the ejector can further improve the performance of an ERS using R134a as a working fluid.

  16. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

  17. Scaling of free-ranging primate energetics with body mass predicts low energy expenditure in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmen, Bruno; Darlu, Pierre; Hladik, Claude Marcel; Pasquet, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Studies of how a mammal's daily energy expenditure scales with its body mass suggest that humans, whether Westerners, agro-pastoralists, or hunter-gatherers, all have much lower energy expenditures for their body mass than other mammals. However, non-human primates also differ from other mammals in several life history traits suggestive of low energy use. Judging by field metabolic rates of free-ranging strepsirhine and haplorhine primates with different lifestyle and body mass, estimated using doubly labeled water, primates have lower energy expenditure than other similar-sized eutherian mammals. Daily energy expenditure in humans fell along the regression line of non-human primates. The results suggest that thrifty energy use could be an ancient strategy of primates. Although physical activity is a major component of energy balance, our results suggest a need to revise the basis for establishing norms of energy expenditure in modern humans. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting species diversity of benthic communities within turbid nearshore using full-waveform bathymetric LiDAR and machine learners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collin, Antoine; Archambault, Phillippe; Long, Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Epi-macrobenthic species richness, abundance and composition are linked with type, assemblage and structural complexity of seabed habitat within coastal ecosystems. However, the evaluation of these habitats is highly hindered by limitations related to both waterborne surveys (slow acquisition, shallow water and low reactivity) and water clarity (turbid for most coastal areas). Substratum type/diversity and bathymetric features were elucidated using a supervised method applied to airborne bathymetric LiDAR waveforms over Saint-Siméon-Bonaventure's nearshore area (Gulf of Saint-Lawrence, Québec, Canada). High-resolution underwater photographs were taken at three hundred stations across an 8-km(2) study area. Seven models based upon state-of-the-art machine learning techniques such as Naïve Bayes, Regression Tree, Classification Tree, C 4.5, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and CN2 learners were tested for predicting eight epi-macrobenthic species diversity metrics as a function of the class number. The Random Forest outperformed other models with a three-discretized Simpson index applied to epi-macrobenthic communities, explaining 69% (Classification Accuracy) of its variability by mean bathymetry, time range and skewness derived from the LiDAR waveform. Corroborating marine ecological theory, areas with low Simpson epi-macrobenthic diversity responded to low water depths, high skewness and time range, whereas higher Simpson diversity relied upon deeper bottoms (correlated with stronger hydrodynamics) and low skewness and time range. The degree of species heterogeneity was therefore positively linked with the degree of the structural complexity of the benthic cover. This work underpins that fully exploited bathymetric LiDAR (not only bathymetrically derived by-products), coupled with proficient machine learner, is able to rapidly predict habitat characteristics at a spatial resolution relevant to epi-macrobenthos diversity, ranging from clear to turbid

  19. Predicting species diversity of benthic communities within turbid nearshore using full-waveform bathymetric LiDAR and machine learners.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Collin

    Full Text Available Epi-macrobenthic species richness, abundance and composition are linked with type, assemblage and structural complexity of seabed habitat within coastal ecosystems. However, the evaluation of these habitats is highly hindered by limitations related to both waterborne surveys (slow acquisition, shallow water and low reactivity and water clarity (turbid for most coastal areas. Substratum type/diversity and bathymetric features were elucidated using a supervised method applied to airborne bathymetric LiDAR waveforms over Saint-Siméon-Bonaventure's nearshore area (Gulf of Saint-Lawrence, Québec, Canada. High-resolution underwater photographs were taken at three hundred stations across an 8-km(2 study area. Seven models based upon state-of-the-art machine learning techniques such as Naïve Bayes, Regression Tree, Classification Tree, C 4.5, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and CN2 learners were tested for predicting eight epi-macrobenthic species diversity metrics as a function of the class number. The Random Forest outperformed other models with a three-discretized Simpson index applied to epi-macrobenthic communities, explaining 69% (Classification Accuracy of its variability by mean bathymetry, time range and skewness derived from the LiDAR waveform. Corroborating marine ecological theory, areas with low Simpson epi-macrobenthic diversity responded to low water depths, high skewness and time range, whereas higher Simpson diversity relied upon deeper bottoms (correlated with stronger hydrodynamics and low skewness and time range. The degree of species heterogeneity was therefore positively linked with the degree of the structural complexity of the benthic cover. This work underpins that fully exploited bathymetric LiDAR (not only bathymetrically derived by-products, coupled with proficient machine learner, is able to rapidly predict habitat characteristics at a spatial resolution relevant to epi-macrobenthos diversity, ranging from clear to

  20. Stream power framework for predicting geomorphic change: The 2013 Colorado Front Range flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yochum, Steven E.; Sholtes, Joel S.; Scott, Julian A.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

    2017-09-01

    The Colorado Front Range flood of September 2013 induced a diverse range of geomorphic changes along numerous stream corridors, providing an opportunity to assess responses to a large flood in a semiarid landscape. We defined six classes of geomorphic change related to peak unit stream power and valley confinement for 531 stream reaches over 226 km, spanning a gradient of channel scales and slope. Geomorphic change was generally driven by erosion of channel margins in confined reaches and by a combination of deposition and erosion in unconfined reaches. The magnitude of geomorphic change typically increased with unit stream power (ω), with greater responses observed in unconfined channels. Cumulative logit modeling indicated that total stream power or unit stream power, unit stream power gradient, and valley confinement are significant predictors of geomorphic response for this flood event. Based on this dataset, thresholds for geomorphic adjustment were defined. For channel slopes 230 W/m2 (16 lb/ft-s; at least 10% of the investigated sites experienced substantial channel widening) and a credible potential for avulsions, braiding, and loss of adjacent road embankments associated with ω > 480 W/m2 (33 lb/ft-s; at least 10% of the investigated sites experienced such geomorphic change). Infrequent to numerous eroded banks were very likely with ω > 700 W/m2 (48 lb/ft-s), with substantial channel widening or major geomorphic change shifting from credible to likely. Importantly, in reaches where there were large reductions in ω as the valley form shifted from confined to relatively unconfined, large amounts of deposition-induced, reach-scale geomorphic change occurred in some locations at relatively low ω. Additionally, alluvial channels with slopes > 3% had greater resistance to geomorphic change, likely caused by armoring by larger bed material and increased flow resistance from enhanced bedforms. Finally, we describe how these results can potentially be used by

  1. Prediction of Dominant Forest Tree Species Using QuickBird and Environmental Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh Abdollahnejad

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distribution of plants is one of the indirect methods for predicting the properties of plants and can be defined based on the relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables. In this article, we introduce a new method for the spatial prediction of the dominant trees and species, through a combination of environmental and satellite data. Based on the basal area factor (BAF frequency for each tree species in a total of 518 sample plots, the dominant tree species were determined for each plot. Also, topographical maps of primary and secondary properties were prepared using the digital elevation model (DEM. Categories of soil and the climate maps database of the Doctor Bahramnia Forestry Plan were extracted as well. After pre-processing and processing of spectral data, the pixel values at the sample locations in all the independent factors such as spectral and non-spectral data, were extracted. The modelling rates of tree and shrub species diversity using data mining algorithms of 80% of the sampling plots were taken. Assessment of model accuracy was conducted using 20% of samples and evaluation criteria. Random forest (RF, support vector machine (SVM and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN algorithms were used for spatial distribution modelling of dominant species groups using environmental and spectral variables from 80% of the sample plots. Results showed physiographic factors, especially altitude in combination with soil and climate factors as the most important variables in the distribution of species, while the best model was created by the integration of physiographic factors (in combination with soil and climate with an overall accuracy of 63.85%. In addition, the results of the comparison between the algorithms, showed that the RF algorithm was the most accurate in modelling the diversity.

  2. Predicting species' vulnerability in a massively perturbed system: the fishes of Lake Turkana, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gownaris, Natasha J; Pikitch, Ellen K; Ojwang, William O; Michener, Robert; Kaufman, Les

    2015-01-01

    Lake Turkana is an understudied desert lake shared by Kenya and Ethiopia. This system is at the precipice of large-scale changes in ecological function due to climate change and economic development along its major inflowing river, the Omo River. To anticipate response by the fish community to these changes, we quantified trophic diversity for seven ecological disparate species (Alestes baremose, Hydrocynus forskalli, Labeo horie, Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, Synodontis schall, and Tilapia zillii) using stable isotopes. Based on their marked morphological differentiation, we postulated that dietary niches of these species would be similar in size but show little overlap. The degree of trophic diversity varied greatly among the species studied, refuting our hypothesis regarding dietary niche size. Oreochromis niloticus and L. niloticus had the highest trophic diversity and significantly larger dietary niches than T. zillii, A. baremose and H. forskalli. Low overlap among the dietary niches of the seven species, with the exception of the synodontid catfish S. schall, is consistent with our second hypothesis. PREDICTING SPECIES’ VULNERABILITY: Breeding vulnerability was highest among those species with the lowest trophic diversity. We predict that in suffering two strikes against them, A. baremose, H. forskalli, T. zillii, and L. horie will be most affected by the highly altered Lake Turkana ecosystem and that O. niloticus, L. niloticus and S. schall will be least affected. Low vulnerability among O. niloticus and L. niloticus is promising for the future of the lake's fishery, but the third most important fishery species (L. horie) will be highly vulnerable to impending ecosystem change. T. zillii should be treated as separate from O. niloticus in the fishery given higher sensitivity and a different ecological role. We see potential for expansion of the fishery for S. schall but don't recommend the development of a fishery for A. baremose and H. forskalli.

  3. Predicting species' vulnerability in a massively perturbed system: the fishes of Lake Turkana, Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natasha J Gownaris

    Full Text Available Lake Turkana is an understudied desert lake shared by Kenya and Ethiopia. This system is at the precipice of large-scale changes in ecological function due to climate change and economic development along its major inflowing river, the Omo River. To anticipate response by the fish community to these changes, we quantified trophic diversity for seven ecological disparate species (Alestes baremose, Hydrocynus forskalli, Labeo horie, Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, Synodontis schall, and Tilapia zillii using stable isotopes. Based on their marked morphological differentiation, we postulated that dietary niches of these species would be similar in size but show little overlap. The degree of trophic diversity varied greatly among the species studied, refuting our hypothesis regarding dietary niche size. Oreochromis niloticus and L. niloticus had the highest trophic diversity and significantly larger dietary niches than T. zillii, A. baremose and H. forskalli. Low overlap among the dietary niches of the seven species, with the exception of the synodontid catfish S. schall, is consistent with our second hypothesis. PREDICTING SPECIES’ VULNERABILITY: Breeding vulnerability was highest among those species with the lowest trophic diversity. We predict that in suffering two strikes against them, A. baremose, H. forskalli, T. zillii, and L. horie will be most affected by the highly altered Lake Turkana ecosystem and that O. niloticus, L. niloticus and S. schall will be least affected. Low vulnerability among O. niloticus and L. niloticus is promising for the future of the lake's fishery, but the third most important fishery species (L. horie will be highly vulnerable to impending ecosystem change. T. zillii should be treated as separate from O. niloticus in the fishery given higher sensitivity and a different ecological role. We see potential for expansion of the fishery for S. schall but don't recommend the development of a fishery for A

  4. Predicting the Velocity and Azimuth of Fragments Generated by the Range Destruction or Random Failure of Rocket Casings and Tankage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eck, Marshall B.; Mukunda, Meera

    1988-10-01

    The details of a predictive analytical modeling process as well as the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed in this paper. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-over-pressure failures are also discussed. These methods have been calibrated against observed SRM ascent failures and on-orbit tankage failures. Casing-quadrant sized fragments with velocities exceeding 100 m/s resulted from Titan 34D-SRM range destruct actions at 10 sec mission elapsed time (MET). Casing-quadrant sized fragments with velocities of approximately 200 m/s resulted from STS-SRM range destruct actions at 110 sec MET. Similar sized fragments for Ariane third stage and Delta second stage tankage were predicted to have maximum velocities of 260 m/s and 480 m/s respectively. Good agreement was found between the predictions and observations for five specific events and it was concluded that the methods developed have good potential for use in predicting the fragmentation process of a number of generically similar casing and tankage systems. There are three copies in the file, one of these is loose.

  5. Predicting summer site occupancy for an invasive species, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula, in an urban environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy L Adams

    Full Text Available Invasive species are often favoured in fragmented, highly-modified, human-dominated landscapes such as urban areas. Because successful invasive urban adapters can occupy habitat that is quite different from that in their original range, effective management programmes for invasive species in urban areas require an understanding of distribution, habitat and resource requirements at a local scale that is tailored to the fine-scale heterogeneity typical of urban landscapes. The common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula is one of New Zealand's most destructive invasive pest species. As brushtail possums traditionally occupy forest habitat, control in New Zealand has focussed on rural and forest habitats, and forest fragments in cities. However, as successful urban adapters, possums may be occupying a wider range of habitats. Here we use site occupancy methods to determine the distribution of brushtail possums across five distinguishable urban habitat types during summer, which is when possums have the greatest impacts on breeding birds. We collected data on possum presence/absence and habitat characteristics, including possible sources of supplementary food (fruit trees, vegetable gardens, compost heaps, and the availability of forest fragments from 150 survey locations. Predictive distribution models constructed using the programme PRESENCE revealed that while occupancy rates were highest in forest fragments, possums were still present across a large proportion of residential habitat with occupancy decreasing as housing density increased and green cover decreased. The presence of supplementary food sources was important in predicting possum occupancy, which may reflect the high nutritional value of these food types. Additionally, occupancy decreased as the proportion of forest fragment decreased, indicating the importance of forest fragments in determining possum distribution. Control operations to protect native birds from possum predation in

  6. Predicting summer site occupancy for an invasive species, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), in an urban environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Amy L; Dickinson, Katharine J M; Robertson, Bruce C; van Heezik, Yolanda

    2013-01-01

    Invasive species are often favoured in fragmented, highly-modified, human-dominated landscapes such as urban areas. Because successful invasive urban adapters can occupy habitat that is quite different from that in their original range, effective management programmes for invasive species in urban areas require an understanding of distribution, habitat and resource requirements at a local scale that is tailored to the fine-scale heterogeneity typical of urban landscapes. The common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is one of New Zealand's most destructive invasive pest species. As brushtail possums traditionally occupy forest habitat, control in New Zealand has focussed on rural and forest habitats, and forest fragments in cities. However, as successful urban adapters, possums may be occupying a wider range of habitats. Here we use site occupancy methods to determine the distribution of brushtail possums across five distinguishable urban habitat types during summer, which is when possums have the greatest impacts on breeding birds. We collected data on possum presence/absence and habitat characteristics, including possible sources of supplementary food (fruit trees, vegetable gardens, compost heaps), and the availability of forest fragments from 150 survey locations. Predictive distribution models constructed using the programme PRESENCE revealed that while occupancy rates were highest in forest fragments, possums were still present across a large proportion of residential habitat with occupancy decreasing as housing density increased and green cover decreased. The presence of supplementary food sources was important in predicting possum occupancy, which may reflect the high nutritional value of these food types. Additionally, occupancy decreased as the proportion of forest fragment decreased, indicating the importance of forest fragments in determining possum distribution. Control operations to protect native birds from possum predation in cities should

  7. Long-range variability and predictability of the Ozark Highlands climate elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Won

    Interannual variations and intraannual variation of regional-scale and global-scale climate variables are characterized by principal component analysis (PCA). Climate consistency is detected among the entire United States, the North Central states, and the Ozark Highlands (OZHI). The regional-scale modes of the OZHI climate are classified as the predictands of the statistical climate model. Characteristic patterns and time coefficients are examined in global-scale climate variables as the predictor of the models. Relationships between regional-scale and global-scale climate variables are identified by the month lead cross- correlation analysis. The OZHI temperatures in January and July are highly correlated to lead time global-scale climate variables in the tropical and subtropical Pacific and Atlantic and those of lead time in the eastern subtropical and midlatitude Pacific, respectively. The OZHI precipitation levels in January and May are highly correlated to lead time global-scale climate variables in the western tropical Pacific and in the western tropical Indian, and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), respectively. From multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal components regression (PCR) analysis, the predictability of OZHI regional temperature and precipitation are discussed with model diagnostics and measurements of forecasting performance. This study suggests that PCR can clearly eliminate the multicollinearity among predictors. For the purpose of building the statistical climate model, the sensitivities of the main predictors (i.e., temperature and precipitation) are investigated, and relatively long-memory and short-memory predictors are uncovered. The sea surface temperatures have a relatively long-memory effect.

  8. Effects of release rates on the range of attraction of carbon dioxide to some southwestern Ontario mosquito species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, S B; McElligott, P E

    1989-03-01

    The effects of release rates of 0, 250, 500, 1,000 and 4,000 ml/min on the range of attraction of carbon dioxide to some southwestern Ontario mosquito species was determined using ramp traps placed at 3, 7, 11, 15 and 19 m from a central pressurized cylinder. For female Aedes vexans, spring Aedes spp. and Anopheles walkeri, an increase in the release rate of CO2 from 1,000 to 4,000 ml/min resulted in extension of the range of attractiveness from between 3-7 m to between 7-11 m; rates of 500 and 250 ml/min did result in an increase in number of mosquitoes in the traps. Correspondingly, significantly more mosquitoes were caught in the traps at 3 m when the rate was increased to 1,000 ml/min from 500 ml/min. For Ae. vexans, 4,000 ml/min of CO2 attracted more mosquitoes to the 7 m traps than 1,000 ml/min. In this work carbon dioxide did not result in an increase in the number of Culiseta inornata, Cs. morsitans and Culex restuans and Cx. pipiens in the traps.

  9. Predicted toxicity of naphthenic acids present in oil sands process-affected waters to a range of environmental and human endpoints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarlett, Alan G; West, Charles E; Jones, David; Galloway, Tamara S; Rowland, Steven J

    2012-05-15

    Naphthenic acids (NAs) are considered to be a major toxic component of oil sands process-affected waters (OSPW) and are also widely used for industrial processes. The effects of previously identified NAs (54 in total), together with six alkylphenols, were modelled for a range of environmental and human toxicity related endpoints using ADMET predictor™ software. In addition to the models, experimental CALUX® assays were performed on seven tricyclic diamondoid acids. Most of the NAs modelled were predicted to have lethal median concentrations (LC(50)) >100 μM for the three aquatic species modelled. Polycyclic acids containing a single aromatic ring were predicted to be the most toxic to fathead minnows with LC(50)s typically ca 1 μM. Some of these compounds were also predicted to be the most carcinogenic (based on rat and mouse models), possess human estrogenic and androgenic activity and potentially disrupt reproductive processes. Some aliphatic pentacyclic acids also were predicted to exhibit androgenic activity and, uniquely amongst the compounds tested, act as substrates for the cytochrome P450 enzyme CYP3A4. Consistent with the models' predictions for the tricyclic acids, no estrogenic or androgenic activity was detected by ER/AR CALUX®. Further experimental validation of the predictions should now be performed for the compounds highlighted by the models (e.g. priority should perhaps be focused on the polycyclic monoaromatic acids and the aliphatic pentacyclic acids). If shown to be accurate, these compounds can then be targeted for toxicity reduction remediation efforts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Progress Towards an Interdisciplinary Science of Plant Phenology: Building Predictions Across Space, Time and Species Diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

  11. Decreased Range of Motion After Total Knee Arthroplasty Is Predicted by the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Matthew L; Plate, Johannes F; Von Thaer, Sarah; Fino, Nora F; Smith, Beth P; Seyler, Thorsten M; Lang, Jason E

    2016-04-01

    Range of motion (ROM) is important for functional outcome after total knee arthroplasty (TKA); however, some patients hesitate to maximize their ROM postoperatively. The Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK) measures patients' fear of movement. The primary purpose of this investigation was to determine whether TSK scores correlated with decreased ROM after primary TKA. A secondary purpose was to determine whether biofeedback could increase ROM after TKA. Patients were recruited from the senior author's practice between June 2011 and March 2013. A clinical photograph was taken of each patient's knee in maximum passive flexion in the operating room immediately following closure. Patients were randomized to the control or photograph group before incision. A linear mixed model was implemented to determine whether the TSK score and viewing the photo correlated to ROM. Seventy-nine patients were analyzed for correlation between the TSK score and the knee ROM. Sixty patients were analyzed for correlation between viewing the clinical photograph and the knee ROM. The linear mixed model demonstrated a significant negative correlation between the TSK score and both active (β = -0.47, P < .01) and passive (β = -0.66, P < .001) knee flexions. There was a trend toward decreased knee flexion among patients shown their clinical photograph. The TSK was developed as a tool to identify patients at risk for maladaptive responses to painful stimuli. Our data suggest that the TSK may help arthroplasty surgeons identify patients at risk for decreased ROM after TKA. Showing patients a clinical photograph failed to increase ROM after TKA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Explicit Not Implicit Preferences Predict Conservation Intentions for Endangered Species and Biomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandra Echeverri

    Full Text Available Conservation of biodiversity is determined in part by human preferences. Preferences relevant to conservation have been examined largely via explicit measures (e.g., a self-reported degree of liking, with implicit measures (e.g., preconscious, automatic evaluations receiving relatively less attention. This is the case despite psychological evidence from other contexts that implicit preferences are more informative of behavior. Thus, the type of measure that predicts conservation intentions for biodiversity is unknown. We conducted three studies to examine conservation intentions in light of people's explicit and implicit preferences toward four endangered species (sea otter, American badger, caribou, yellow-breasted chat and four biomes (forest, ocean, grassland, tundra. In Study 1 (n = 55, we found that people implicitly preferred caribou most, but explicitly preferred sea otter most, with a significant multiple regression where participants' explicit preferences dictated their stated intended donations for conservation of each species. In Study 2 (n = 57 we found that people implicitly and explicitly preferred forest and ocean over grassland and tundra. Explicit rather than implicit preferences predicted the intended donation for conservation of the ocean biome. Study 3 involved a broader online sample of participants (n = 463 and also found that explicit preferences dictated the intended donations for conservation of biomes and species. Our findings reveal discrepancies between implicit and explicit preferences toward species, but not toward biomes. Importantly, the results demonstrate that explicit rather than implicit preferences predict conservation intentions for biodiversity. The current findings have several implications for conservation and the communication of biodiversity initiatives.

  13. Floral scent composition predicts bee pollination system in five butterfly bush (Buddleja, Scrophulariaceae) species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, W-C; Chen, G; Vereecken, N J; Dunn, B L; Ma, Y-P; Sun, W-B

    2015-01-01

    Traditionally, plant-pollinator interactions have been interpreted as pollination syndrome. However, the validity of pollination syndrome has been widely doubted in modern studies of pollination ecology. The pollination ecology of five Asian Buddleja species, B. asiatica, B. crispa, B. forrestii, B. macrostachya and B. myriantha, in the Sino-Himalayan region in Asia, flowering in different local seasons, with scented inflorescences were investigated during 2011 and 2012. These five species exhibited diverse floral traits, with narrow and long corolla tubes and concealed nectar. According to their floral morphology, larger bees and Lepidoptera were expected to be the major pollinators. However, field observations showed that only larger bees (honeybee/bumblebee) were the primary pollinators, ranging from 77.95% to 97.90% of total visits. In this study, floral scents of each species were also analysed using coupled gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Although the five Buddleja species emitted differentiated floral scent compositions, our results showed that floral scents of the five species are dominated by substances that can serve as attractive signals to bees, including species-specific scent compounds and principal compounds with larger relative amounts. This suggests that floral scent compositions are closely associated with the principal pollinator assemblages in these five species. Therefore, we conclude that floral scent compositions rather than floral morphology traits should be used to interpret plant-pollinator interactions in these Asian Buddleja species. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  14. Sexual size dimorphism predicts the frequency of sexual cannibalism within and among species of spiders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, Shawn M; Rypstra, Ann L

    2008-09-01

    Sexual cannibalism varies widely among spiders, but no general evolutionary hypothesis has emerged to explain its distribution across taxa. Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) also varies widely among spiders and could affect the vulnerability of males to cannibalistic attacks by females. We tested for a relationship between SSD and sexual cannibalism within and among species of spiders, using a broad taxonomic data set. For most species, cannibalism was more likely when males were much smaller than females. In addition, using phylogenetically controlled and uncontrolled analyses, there was a strong positive relationship between average SSD of a species and the frequency of sexual cannibalism. This is the first evidence that the degree of size difference between males and females is related to the phylogenetic distribution of sexual cannibalism among a broad range of spiders.

  15. Predicting the potential distribution of invasive exotic species using GIS and information-theoretic approaches: A case of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) distribution in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Chen; LiJun, Chen; Albright, Thomas P.

    2007-01-01

    Invasive exotic species pose a growing threat to the economy, public health, and ecological integrity of nations worldwide. Explaining and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive exotic species is of great importance to prevention and early warning efforts. We are investigating the potential distribution of invasive exotic species, the environmental factors that influence these distributions, and the ability to predict them using statistical and information-theoretic approaches. For some species, detailed presence/absence occurrence data are available, allowing the use of a variety of standard statistical techniques. However, for most species, absence data are not available. Presented with the challenge of developing a model based on presence-only information, we developed an improved logistic regression approach using Information Theory and Frequency Statistics to produce a relative suitability map. This paper generated a variety of distributions of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) from logistic regression models applied to herbarium specimen location data and a suite of GIS layers including climatic, topographic, and land cover information. Our logistic regression model was based on Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) from a suite of ecologically reasonable predictor variables. Based on the results we provided a new Frequency Statistical method to compartmentalize habitat-suitability in the native range. Finally, we used the model and the compartmentalized criterion developed in native ranges to "project" a potential distribution onto the exotic ranges to build habitat-suitability maps. ?? Science in China Press 2007.

  16. Reranking candidate gene models with cross-species comparison for improved gene prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pereira Fernando CN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most gene finders score candidate gene models with state-based methods, typically HMMs, by combining local properties (coding potential, splice donor and acceptor patterns, etc. Competing models with similar state-based scores may be distinguishable with additional information. In particular, functional and comparative genomics datasets may help to select among competing models of comparable probability by exploiting features likely to be associated with the correct gene models, such as conserved exon/intron structure or protein sequence features. Results We have investigated the utility of a simple post-processing step for selecting among a set of alternative gene models, using global scoring rules to rerank competing models for more accurate prediction. For each gene locus, we first generate the K best candidate gene models using the gene finder Evigan, and then rerank these models using comparisons with putative orthologous genes from closely-related species. Candidate gene models with lower scores in the original gene finder may be selected if they exhibit strong similarity to probable orthologs in coding sequence, splice site location, or signal peptide occurrence. Experiments on Drosophila melanogaster demonstrate that reranking based on cross-species comparison outperforms the best gene models identified by Evigan alone, and also outperforms the comparative gene finders GeneWise and Augustus+. Conclusion Reranking gene models with cross-species comparison improves gene prediction accuracy. This straightforward method can be readily adapted to incorporate additional lines of evidence, as it requires only a ranked source of candidate gene models.

  17. Prediction of rumen degradability parameters of a wide range of forages and non-forages by NIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foskolos, A; Calsamiglia, S; Chrenková, M; Weisbjerg, M R; Albanell, E

    2015-07-01

    Kinetics of nutrient degradation in the rumen is an important component of feed evaluation systems for ruminants. The in situ technique is commonly used to obtain such dynamic parameters, but it requires cannulated animals and incubations last several days limiting its application in practice. On the other hand, feed industry relies strongly on NIRS to predict chemical composition of feeds and it has been used to predict nutrient degradability parameters. However, most of these studies were feedstuff specific, predicting degradability parameters of a particular feedstuff or category of feedstuffs, mainly forages or compound feeds and not grains and byproducts. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of NIRS to predict degradability parameters and effective degradation utilizing a wide range of feedstuffs commonly used in ruminant nutrition. A database of 809 feedstuffs was created. Feedstuffs were grouped as forages (FF; n=256), non-forages (NF; n=539) and of animal origin (n=14). In situ degradability data for dry matter (DM; n=665), CP (n=682) and NDF (n=100) were collected. Degradability was described in terms of washable fraction (a), slowly degradable fraction (b) and its rate of degradation (c). All samples were scanned from 1100 to 2500 nm using an NIRSystems 5000 scanning in reflectance mode. Calibrations were developed for all samples (ALL), FF and NF. Equations were validated with an external validation set of 20% of total samples. NIRS equations to predict the effective degradability and fractions a and b of DM, CP and NDF could be evaluated from being adequate for screening (r(2)>0.77; ratio of performance to deviation (RPD)=2.0 to 2.9) to suitable for quantitative purposes (r(2)>0.84; RPD=3.1 to 4.7), and some predictions were improved by group separation reducing the standard error of prediction. Similarly, the rate of degradation of CP (CP(c)) and DM (DM(c)) was predicted for screening purposes (RPD⩾2 and 2.5 for CP(c) and DM(c), respectively

  18. Deep Learning to Predict the Formation of Quinone Species in Drug Metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Tyler B; Swamidass, S Joshua

    2017-02-20

    Many adverse drug reactions are thought to be caused by electrophilically reactive drug metabolites that conjugate to nucleophilic sites within DNA and proteins, causing cancer or toxic immune responses. Quinone species, including quinone-imines, quinone-methides, and imine-methides, are electrophilic Michael acceptors that are often highly reactive and comprise over 40% of all known reactive metabolites. Quinone metabolites are created by cytochromes P450 and peroxidases. For example, cytochromes P450 oxidize acetaminophen to N-acetyl-p-benzoquinone imine, which is electrophilically reactive and covalently binds to nucleophilic sites within proteins. This reactive quinone metabolite elicits a toxic immune response when acetaminophen exceeds a safe dose. Using a deep learning approach, this study reports the first published method for predicting quinone formation: the formation of a quinone species by metabolic oxidation. We model both one- and two-step quinone formation, enabling accurate quinone formation predictions in nonobvious cases. We predict atom pairs that form quinones with an AUC accuracy of 97.6%, and we identify molecules that form quinones with 88.2% AUC. By modeling the formation of quinones, one of the most common types of reactive metabolites, our method provides a rapid screening tool for a key drug toxicity risk. The XenoSite quinone formation model is available at http://swami.wustl.edu/xenosite/p/quinone .

  19. Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Cannon

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state.The bounds of skilful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6–8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4–2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5–5.5 days. The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days.

  20. Sexually selected traits predict patterns of species richness in a diverse clade of suboscine birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Nathalie; Merrill, Richard M; Tobias, Joseph A

    2008-05-01

    Whether sexual selection acts as an "engine of speciation" is controversial. Some studies suggest that it promotes the evolution of reproductive isolation, while others find no relationship between sexual selection and species richness. However, the explanatory power of previous models may have been constrained because they employed coarse-scale, between-family comparisons and used mating systems and morphological cues as surrogates for sexual selection. In birds, an obvious missing predictor is song, a sexually selected trait that functions in mate choice and reproductive isolation. We investigated the extent to which plumage dichromatism and song structure predicted species richness in a diverse family of Neotropical suboscine birds, the antbirds (Thamnophilidae). These analyses revealed a positive relationship between the intensity of sexual selection and diversity: genera with higher levels of dichromatism and lower-pitched, more complex songs contained greater numbers of species. This relationship held when controlling for phylogeny and was strengthened by the inclusion of subspecies, suggesting that sexual selection has played a role in the diversification of antbirds. This is the first study to reveal correlations between song structure and species diversity, emphasizing the importance of acoustic signals, and within-family analyses, in comparative studies of sexual selection.

  1. Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas J Gotelli

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss.

  2. Criterion 1: Conservation of biological diversity - Indicator 8: The number of forest dependent species that occupy a small portion of their former range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Michael S. Knowles; Jason McNees

    2003-01-01

    This indicator measures the portion of a species' historical distribution that is currently occupied as a surrogate measure of genetic diversity. Based on data for 1,642 terrestrial animals associated with forests, most species (88 percent) were found to fully occupy their historic range - at least as measured by coarse state-level occurrence patterns. Of the 193...

  3. Long-Range Prediction of Population by Sex and Age in Each DistrictBased on Fuzzy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pak, Pyong Sik; Kim, Gwan

    This paper proposes a method of predicting the population by sex and age for each of 402 districts over a long-range period in the Kansai region, Japan, by applying fuzzy theories. First, to predict the total social increase for 402 districts by directly taking into consideration of differences in factors of migration in each district, nine rules or domains were set up by using the migration rate and the total social increase in each district as the premise variables. Regression models were constructed in the consequences which use various socioeconomic indicators as explaining variables. The future value of the total social increase in each district can be obtained by weighting the values calculated from the estimated regression models with the membership values denoting the degree of belonging to each rule. Second, a method to estimate the social increase by sex and age in each district is proposed based on fuzzy clustering method for dealing with long-range socioeconomic changes in population migration by sex, age and district. All the samples of the migration ratio were classified into the same nine domains. By applying Fuzzy c-Means on districts belonged to each domain, all samples were classified into 20 clusters. The future migration ratio in each district can be estimated by weighting the migration pattern in each cluster with the values of membership function denoting the degree of belonging to each cluster. Results of the validity test of the constructed population model based on the proposed methods are also presented. It has been shown that it becomes possible to predict the population by sex, age and district over a long-range period by using the proposed method.

  4. Status of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1863) throughout the species range, threats to survival, and prognosis for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, L R; Drauch-Schreier, A; Lepla, K.; McAdam, S. O.; McLellan, J; Parsley, Michael J.; Paragamian, V L; Young, S P

    2017-01-01

    White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus (WS), are distributed throughout three major river basins on the West Coast of North America: the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Columbia, and Fraser River drainages. Considered the largest North American freshwater fish, some WS use estuarine habitat and make limited marine movements between river basins. Some populations are listed by the United States or Canada as threatened or endangered (upper Columbia River above Grand Coulee Dam; Kootenai River; lower, middle and, upper Fraser River and Nechako River), while others do not warrant federal listing at this time (Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers; Columbia River below Grand Coulee Dam; Snake River). Threats that impact WS throughout the species’ range include fishing effects and habitat alteration and degradation. Several populations suffer from recruitment limitations or collapse due to high early life mortality associated with these threats. Efforts to preserve WS populations include annual monitoring, harvest restrictions, habitat restoration, and conservation aquaculture. This paper provides a review of current knowledge on WS life history, ecology, physiology, behavior, and genetics and presents the status of WS in each drainage. Ongoing management and conservation efforts and additional research needs are identified to address present and future risks to the species.

  5. The In Vitro Activity of a Range of Natural Bioflavonoids Against Five Species of Pathogenic Fish Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gil Ha Yoon

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The in vitro antibacterial activity of thirty two plant-derived compounds (26 crude herbal extraction and 6 pure citrus-based bioflavonoids were tested on five different species of aquatic bacterial pathogens (Aeromonas hydrophila, A. salmonicida, A. sobria, Edwardsiella ictaluri, and E. tarda over a period of 72 hours at 22 oC. From the agar diffusion test, six pure citrus-based bioflavonoids (apigenin, catechin, hesperidin, morin, naringin and quercetin appeared to impact on growth when used at concentrations ranging from 10 ppm - 1000 ppm. To confirm their effect on the growth dynamics of each bacteria, a 1000 ppm dose of the appropriate bioflavonoid was added to a bacterial culture and daily changes in culture growth were measured. Quercetin was found to be bacteriocidal against all the bacterial strains. Morin was found to be bacteriocidal against only 4 out of 6 strains while hesperidin was found to affect the growth of all the tested bacterial strains, working both as a bacteriocidal and as a bacteriostatic agent. Apigenin performed poorly and had no effect on the growth of any bacterial strain while catechin and naringin were found to be generally bacteriostatic in action but had little impact on the growth of the Aeromonad strains. From the current in vitro work, it was concluded that certain plant extracts do have an impact on the growth dynamics of select bacteria and show potential as alternatives to the use of antimicrobials, but further research is required to assess their performance in vivo.

  6. Structural prediction and analysis of VIH-related peptides from selected crustacean species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagaraju, Ganji Purna Chandra; Kumari, Nunna Siva; Prasad, Ganji Lakshmi Vara; Rajitha, Balney; Meenu, Madan; Rao, Manam Sreenivasa; Naik, Bannoth Reddya

    2009-08-17

    The tentative elucidation of the 3D-structure of vitellogenesis inhibiting hormone (VIH) peptides is conversely underprivileged by difficulties in gaining enough peptide or protein, diffracting crystals, and numerous extra technical aspects. As a result, no structural information is available for VIH peptide sequences registered in the Genbank. In this situation, it is not surprising that predictive methods have achieved great interest. Here, in this study the molt-inhibiting hormone (MIH) of the kuruma prawn (Marsupenaeus japonicus) is used, to predict the structure of four VIHrelated peptides in the crustacean species. The high similarity of the 3D-structures and the calculated physiochemical characteristics of these peptides suggest a common fold for the entire family.

  7. Variations on a theme: species differences in synaptic connectivity do not predict central pattern generator activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunaratne, Charuni A; Sakurai, Akira; Katz, Paul S

    2017-08-01

    coupling and reciprocal inhibition. They also exhibit different patterns of activity during rhythmic motor behaviors that are not predicted by their circuitry. The circuitry does not map onto the phylogeny in a predictable fashion either. Thus neither neuronal homology nor species behavior is predictive of neural circuit connectivity. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  8. A predictive relationship between population and genetic sex ratios in clonal species

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLetchie, D. Nicholas; García-Ramos, Gisela

    2017-04-01

    Sexual reproduction depends on mate availability that is reflected by local sex ratios. In species where both sexes can clonally expand, the population sex ratio describes the proportion of males, including clonally derived individuals (ramets) in addition to sexually produced individuals (genets). In contrast to population sex ratio that accounts for the overall abundance of the sexes, the genetic sex ratio reflects the relative abundance of genetically unique mates, which is critical in predicting effective population size but is difficult to estimate in the field. While an intuitive positive relationship between population (ramet) sex ratio and genetic (genet) sex ratio is expected, an explicit relationship is unknown. In this study, we determined a mathematical expression in the form of a hyperbola that encompasses a linear to a nonlinear positive relationship between ramet and genet sex ratios. As expected when both sexes clonally have equal number of ramets per genet both sex ratios are identical, and thus ramet sex ratio becomes a linear function of genet sex ratio. Conversely, if sex differences in ramet number occur, this mathematical relationship becomes nonlinear and a discrepancy between the sex ratios amplifies from extreme sex ratios values towards intermediate values. We evaluated our predictions with empirical data that simultaneously quantified ramet and genet sex ratios in populations of several species. We found that the data support the predicted positive nonlinear relationship, indicating sex differences in ramet number across populations. However, some data may also fit the null model, which suggests that sex differences in ramet number were not extensive, or the number of populations was too small to capture the curvature of the nonlinear relationship. Data with lack of fit suggest the presence of factors capable of weakening the positive relationship between the sex ratios. Advantages of this model include predicting genet sex ratio using

  9. SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    with constituent species to approximate the properties of assemblages. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single ‘spatially explicit species assemblage modelling’ (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant designations of initial species source pools for modelling, macroecological variables...

  10. Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

  11. Environmental heterogeneity predicts species richness of freshwater mollusks in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauffe, T.; Schultheiß, R.; Van Bocxlaer, B.; Prömmel, K.; Albrecht, C.

    2016-09-01

    Species diversity and how it is structured on a continental scale is influenced by stochastic, ecological, and evolutionary driving forces, but hypotheses on determining factors have been mainly examined for terrestrial and marine organisms. The extant diversity of African freshwater mollusks is in general well assessed to facilitate conservation strategies and because of the medical importance of several taxa as intermediate hosts for tropical parasites. This historical accumulation of knowledge has, however, not resulted in substantial macroecological studies on the spatial distribution of freshwater mollusks. Here, we use continental distribution data and a recently developed method of random and cohesive allocation of species distribution ranges to test the relative importance of various factors in shaping species richness of Bivalvia and Gastropoda. We show that the mid-domain effect, that is, a hump-shaped richness gradient in a geographically bounded system despite the absence of environmental gradients, plays a minor role in determining species richness of freshwater mollusks in sub-Saharan Africa. The western branch of the East African Rift System was included as dispersal barrier in richness models, but these simulation results did not fit observed diversity patterns significantly better than models where this effect was not included, which suggests that the rift has played a more complex role in generating diversity patterns. Present-day precipitation and temperature explain richness patterns better than Eemian climatic condition. Therefore, the availability of water and energy for primary productivity during the past does not influence current species richness patterns much, and observed diversity patterns appear to be in equilibrium with contemporary climate. The availability of surface waters was the best predictor of bivalve and gastropod richness. Our data indicate that habitat diversity causes the observed species-area relationship, and hence, that

  12. Determination of Germination Response to Temperature and Water Potential for a Wide Range of Cover Crop Species and Related Functional Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribouillois, Hélène; Dürr, Carolyne; Demilly, Didier; Wagner, Marie-Hélène; Justes, Eric

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of species can be sown as cover crops during fallow periods to provide various ecosystem services. Plant establishment is a key stage, especially when sowing occurs in summer with high soil temperatures and low water availability. The aim of this study was to determine the response of germination to temperature and water potential for diverse cover crop species. Based on these characteristics, we developed contrasting functional groups that group species with the same germination ability, which may be useful to adapt species choice to climatic sowing conditions. Germination of 36 different species from six botanical families was measured in the laboratory at eight temperatures ranging from 4.5-43°C and at four water potentials. Final germination percentages, germination rate, cardinal temperatures, base temperature and base water potential were calculated for each species. Optimal temperatures varied from 21.3-37.2°C, maximum temperatures at which the species could germinate varied from 27.7-43.0°C and base water potentials varied from -0.1 to -2.6 MPa. Most cover crops were adapted to summer sowing with a relatively high mean optimal temperature for germination, but some Fabaceae species were more sensitive to high temperatures. Species mainly from Poaceae and Brassicaceae were the most resistant to water deficit and germinated under a low base water potential. Species were classified, independent of family, according to their ability to germinate under a range of temperatures and according to their base water potential in order to group species by functional germination groups. These groups may help in choosing the most adapted cover crop species to sow based on climatic conditions in order to favor plant establishment and the services provided by cover crops during fallow periods. Our data can also be useful as germination parameters in crop models to simulate the emergence of cover crops under different pedoclimatic conditions and crop

  13. Enniatin and Beauvericin Biosynthesis in Fusarium Species: Production Profiles and Structural Determinant Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vania C. Liuzzi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Members of the fungal genus Fusarium can produce numerous secondary metabolites, including the nonribosomal mycotoxins beauvericin (BEA and enniatins (ENNs. Both mycotoxins are synthesized by the multifunctional enzyme enniatin synthetase (ESYN1 that contains both peptide synthetase and S-adenosyl-l-methionine-dependent N-methyltransferase activities. Several Fusarium species can produce ENNs, BEA or both, but the mechanism(s enabling these differential metabolic profiles is unknown. In this study, we analyzed the primary structure of ESYN1 by sequencing esyn1 transcripts from different Fusarium species. We measured ENNs and BEA production by ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with photodiode array and Acquity QDa mass detector (UPLC-PDA-QDa analyses. We predicted protein structures, compared the predictions by multivariate analysis methods and found a striking correlation between BEA/ENN-producing profiles and ESYN1 three-dimensional structures. Structural differences in the β strand’s Asn789-Ala793 and His797-Asp802 portions of the amino acid adenylation domain can be used to distinguish BEA/ENN-producing Fusarium isolates from those that produce only ENN.

  14. Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco-Pastor, J L; Fernández-Mazuecos, M; Vargas, P

    2013-08-01

    Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine-Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Movements of wolves at the northern extreme of the species' range, including during four months of darkness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L David Mech

    Full Text Available Information about wolf (Canis lupus movements anywhere near the northern extreme of the species' range in the High Arctic (>75°N latitude are lacking. There, wolves prey primarily on muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus and must survive 4 months of 24 hr/day winter darkness and temperatures reaching -53 C. The extent to which wolves remain active and prey on muskoxen during the dark period are unknown, for the closest area where information is available about winter wolf movements is >2,250 km south. We studied a pack of ≥20 wolves on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (80°N latitude from July 2009 through mid-April 2010 by collaring a lead wolf with a Global Positioning System (GPS/Argos radio collar. The collar recorded the wolf's precise locations at 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. daily and transmitted the locations by satellite to our email. Straight-line distances between consecutive 12-hr locations varied between 0 and 76 km. Mean (SE linear distance between consecutive locations (n = 554 was 11 (0.5 km. Total minimum distance traveled was 5,979 km, and total area covered was 6,640 km(2, the largest wolf range reported. The wolf and presumably his pack once made a 263-km (straight-line distance foray to the southeast during 19-28 January 2010, returning 29 January to 1 February at an average of 41 km/day straight-line distances between 12-hr locations. This study produced the first detailed movement information about any large mammal in the High Arctic, and the average movements during the dark period did not differ from those afterwards. Wolf movements during the dark period in the highest latitudes match those of the other seasons and generally those of wolves in lower latitudes, and, at least with the gross movements measurable by our methods, the 4-month period without direct sunlight produced little change in movements.

  16. Photoionization mass spectrometric study of the prebiotic species formamide in the 10-20 eV photon energy range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, Sydney; Jochims, Hans-Werner; Baumgärtel, Helmut

    2010-04-15

    A photoion mass spectrometry study of the prebiotic species formamide was carried out using synchrotron radiation over the photon energy range 10-20 eV. Photoion yield curves were measured for the parent ion and seven fragment ions. The ionization energy of formamide was determined as IE (1(2)A') = 10.220 +/- 0.005 eV, in agreement with a value obtained by high resolution photoelectron spectroscopy. The adiabatic energy of the first excited state of the ion, 1(2)A'', was revised to 10.55 eV. A comparison of the ionization energies of related formamides, amino acids, and polypeptides provides useful information on the varied effects of methylation and shows that polymerization does not substantially alter the ionization properties of the amino acid monomer units. Assignments of the fragment ions and the pathways of their formation by dissociative photoionization were made on the basis of ion appearance energies in conjunction with thermochemical data and the results of earlier electron impact mass spectral studies. Some of the dissociation pathways are considered to involve coupling between the 1(2)A' ground state and the low-lying 1(2)A'' excited state of the cation. Heats of formation are derived for all ions detected and are compared with literature values where they exist. Formation of the HNCO(+) ion occurs by two separate paths, one involving H(2) loss, the other H + H. In the conclusion a brief discussion is given of some astrophysical implications of these results.

  17. Predicting invasiveness of species in trade: Climate match, trophic guild and fecundity influence establishment and impact of non-native freshwater fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howeth, Jennifer G.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Angermeier, Paul; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.; Hoff, Michael H.; Keller, Reuben P.; Mandrak, Nicholas E.; Marchetti, Michael P.; Olden, Julian D.; Romagosa, Christina M.; Lodge, David M.

    2016-01-01

    AimImpacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions.LocationLaurentian Great Lakes region.MethodsTrait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models.ResultsClimate match between a species’ native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75–81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75–83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes.Main conclusionsOur models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers

  18. Comparative analysis of the predicted secretomes of Rosaceae scab pathogens Venturia inaequalis and V. pirina reveals expanded effector families and putative determinants of host range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Cecilia H; Plummer, Kim M; Jones, Darcy A B; Mesarich, Carl H; Shiller, Jason; Taranto, Adam P; Robinson, Andrew J; Kastner, Patrick; Hall, Nathan E; Templeton, Matthew D; Bowen, Joanna K

    2017-05-02

    Fungal plant pathogens belonging to the genus Venturia cause damaging scab diseases of members of the Rosaceae. In terms of economic impact, the most important of these are V. inaequalis, which infects apple, and V. pirina, which is a pathogen of European pear. Given that Venturia fungi colonise the sub-cuticular space without penetrating plant cells, it is assumed that effectors that contribute to virulence and determination of host range will be secreted into this plant-pathogen interface. Thus the predicted secretomes of a range of isolates of Venturia with distinct host-ranges were interrogated to reveal putative proteins involved in virulence and pathogenicity. Genomes of Venturia pirina (one European pear scab isolate) and Venturia inaequalis (three apple scab, and one loquat scab, isolates) were sequenced and the predicted secretomes of each isolate identified. RNA-Seq was conducted on the apple-specific V. inaequalis isolate Vi1 (in vitro and infected apple leaves) to highlight virulence and pathogenicity components of the secretome. Genes encoding over 600 small secreted proteins (candidate effectors) were identified, most of which are novel to Venturia, with expansion of putative effector families a feature of the genus. Numerous genes with similarity to Leptosphaeria maculans AvrLm6 and the Verticillium spp. Ave1 were identified. Candidates for avirulence effectors with cognate resistance genes involved in race-cultivar specificity were identified, as were putative proteins involved in host-species determination. Candidate effectors were found, on average, to be in regions of relatively low gene-density and in closer proximity to repeats (e.g. transposable elements), compared with core eukaryotic genes. Comparative secretomics has revealed candidate effectors from Venturia fungal plant pathogens that attack pome fruit. Effectors that are putative determinants of host range were identified; both those that may be involved in race-cultivar and host-species

  19. A mixed modeling approach to predict the effect of environmental modification on species distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cozzoli

    Full Text Available Human infrastructures can modify ecosystems, thereby affecting the occurrence and spatial distribution of organisms, as well as ecosystem functionality. Sustainable development requires the ability to predict responses of species to anthropogenic pressures. We investigated the large scale, long term effect of important human alterations of benthic habitats with an integrated approach combining engineering and ecological modelling. We focused our analysis on the Oosterschelde basin (The Netherlands, which was partially embanked by a storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering, 1986. We made use of 1 a prognostic (numerical environmental (hydrodynamic model and 2 a novel application of quantile regression to Species Distribution Modeling (SDM to simulate both the realized and potential (habitat suitability abundance of four macrozoobenthic species: Scoloplos armiger, Peringia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Lanice conchilega. The analysis shows that part of the fluctuations in macrozoobenthic biomass stocks during the last decades is related to the effect of the coastal defense infrastructures on the basin morphology and hydrodynamics. The methodological framework we propose is particularly suitable for the analysis of large abundance datasets combined with high-resolution environmental data. Our analysis provides useful information on future changes in ecosystem functionality induced by human activities.

  20. Using a coupled eco-hydrodynamic model to predict habitat for target species following dam removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomsic, C.A.; Granata, T.C.; Murphy, R.P.; Livchak, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    A habitat suitability index (HSI) model was developed for a water quality sensitive fish (Greater Redhorse) and macroinvertebrate (Plecoptera) species to determine the restoration success of the St. John Dam removal for the Sandusky River (Ohio). An ArcGIS?? model was created for pre- and post-dam removal scenarios. Inputs to the HSI model consist of substrate distributions from river surveys, and water level and velocity time series, outputs from a hydrodynamic model. The ArcGIS?? model predicted habitat suitability indices at 45 river cross-sections in the hydrodynamic model. The model was programmed to produce polygon layers, using graphical user interfaces that were displayed in the ArcGIS?? environment. The results of the model clearly show an increase of habitat suitability from pre- to post-dam removal periods and in the former reservoir. The change in suitability of the model is attributed mostly to the change in depth in the river following the dam removal for both the fish and invertebrate species. The results of the invertebrate model followed the same positive trend as species enumerations from the river basin. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Extinction Resilience of Island Species: An Amphibian Case and a Predictive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian R. Altaba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme overall divergence and high extinction rates are typical of insular endemics. Thus, detecting and understanding nativeness is critical on islands. Resilience to extinction is explored through a mechanistic approach focusing on midwife toads (Anura: Alytidae: Alytinae, an ancient lineage that includes continental and insular species. All alytines need urgent conservation action, including control of emerging diseases and spatially explicit reserve design aimed at ensuring ecosystem health and connectivity. The only extant insular alytine is additionally affected by an introduced continental predator. This alien species acts as a driver of the prey’s near-extinction and has not elicited any evolutionary response. Both IUCN criteria and EDGE scores show that alytines are top conservation priorities. However, there is a need for also considering phenotypic and ecological uniqueness in the assessment of conservation status and urgency. The reason is that phenotypes render ecosystems functional and insular ones uniquely so. In contrast, phylogenetic relatedness is just a constraint upon, not a motor of, evolutionary novelty. Insular species are indeed particularly susceptible, but can be similarly endangered as continental ones. This paradox may be solved by recognizing the insularity syndrome in any isolated or nearly-insular ecosystem, as a function of evolutionary and dispersal potentials. This predictive model may be useful for island biogeography, invasion biology and conservation planning.

  2. Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenton-Rule, Evan C; Barbieri, Rafael F; Lester, Philip J

    2016-06-15

    Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders. © 2016 The Author(s).

  3. Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Julia E; Nicol, Sam; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Semmens, Darius; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Mattsson, Brady J; McCracken, Gary; Norris, D Ryan; Thogmartin, Wayne E; López-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-02-01

    In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals' "removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened." We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species' range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria-redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)-that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research. © 2017

  4. Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an

  5. Modelled three-dimensional suction accuracy predicts prey capture success in three species of centrarchid fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Emily A.; Higham, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    Prey capture is critical for survival, and differences in correctly positioning and timing a strike (accuracy) are likely related to variation in capture success. However, an ability to quantify accuracy under natural conditions, particularly for fishes, is lacking. We developed a predictive model of suction hydrodynamics and applied it to natural behaviours using three-dimensional kinematics of three centrarchid fishes capturing evasive and non-evasive prey. A spheroid ingested volume of water (IVW) with dimensions predicted by peak gape and ram speed was verified with known hydrodynamics for two species. Differences in capture success occurred primarily with evasive prey (64–96% success). Micropterus salmoides had the greatest ram and gape when capturing evasive prey, resulting in the largest and most elongate IVW. Accuracy predicted capture success, although other factors may also be important. The lower accuracy previously observed in M. salmoides was not replicated, but this is likely due to more natural conditions in our study. Additionally, we discuss the role of modulation and integrated behaviours in shaping the IVW and determining accuracy. With our model, accuracy is a more accessible performance measure for suction-feeding fishes, which can be used to explore macroevolutionary patterns of prey capture evolution. PMID:24718455

  6. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valladares, F.; Matesanz, S.; Guilhaumon, F.; Araujo, M.; Balaguer, L.; Benito-Garzon, M.; Cornwell, W.K.; Gianoli, E.; van Kleunen, M.; Naya, D.E.; Nicotra, A.B.; Poorter, H.; Zavala, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic

  7. Criterion 1: Conservation of biological diversity - Indicator 9: Population levels of representative species from diverse habitats monitored across their range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolyn Hull Sieg; Curtis H. Flather; Noah Barstatis

    2003-01-01

    This indicator estimates population trends of selected species as a surrogate measure of genetic diversity. Decreases in genetic diversity as populations decline, particularly if associated with small populations, contribute to increased risk of extinction. This indicator also provides an important measure of general biodiversity, as changes in species abundances are a...

  8. Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.

    2014-01-01

    The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests

  9. Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Komdeur Jan

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict, and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT. We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT and South Africa (CPT. Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Results Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. Conclusions These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT. Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each

  10. A new species of Desmopachria Babington (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) from Cuba with a prediction of its geographic distribution and notes on other Cuban species of the genus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megna, Yoandri S; Sánchez-Fernández, David

    2014-01-10

    A new species, Desmopachria andreae sp. n. is described from Cuba. Diagnostic characters including illustrations of male genitalia are provided and illustrated for the five species of the genus occurring on the island. For these five species both a simple key to adults and maps of their known distribution in Cuba are also provided. Using a Maximun Entropy method (MaxEnt), a distribution model was developed for D. andreae sp.n. Based on the model's predictions, this species has a higher probability of occurring in high altitude forests (above 1000 m a.s.l.), characterised by relatively low temperatures especially during the hottest and wettest seasons, specifically, the mountainous areas of the Macizo de Guamuhaya (Central Cuba), Sierra Maestra (S Cuba) and Nipe-Sagua-Baracoa (NE Cuba). In some of these areas the species has not yet been recorded, and should be searched for in future field surveys.

  11. Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Julia E.; Nicol, Samuel; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Mattsson, Brady; McCracken, Gary; Norris, D. Ryan; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-01-01

    In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

  12. Step-by-step calculation and spreadsheet tools for predicting stressor levels that extirpate genera and species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormier, Susan M; Zheng, Lei; Leppo, Erik W; Hamilton, Andrew

    2017-10-14

    In 2011, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) released a field-based method for estimating the extirpation of freshwater aquatic benthic invertebrates by ionic mixtures dominated by HCO3- , SO42- , and Ca2+ measured as specific conductivity (SC). The estimate of extirpation was SC at the 95th centile (XC95) of a weighted cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of a genus or species over a range of SC. A CFD of XC95 values was used to predict the SC at which 5% of genera were likely to be extirpated. Because there are many uses for XC95 values and many data sets that could be analyzed using this method, we laid out a step-by-step method for calculating XC95 values and the stressor level that predicts a 5% extirpation of genera (HC05). Although the calculations can be done with a handheld calculator, we developed 2 downloadable Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet calculation tools that are easy to use to calculate XC95 values, to plot a taxon's XC95 cumulative frequency distribution with increasing SC, and to plot probabilities of observing a taxon at a particular SC. They also plot cumulative frequency distributions of XC95 values and calculate HC05 values. In addition to the tools, we share an example and the output of XC95 values for 176 distinct aquatic benthic invertebrates in Appalachia, in West Virginia, USA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;00:000-000. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  13. Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eck, M.; Mukunda, M.

    The proliferation of space vehicle launch sites and the projected utilization of these facilities portends an increase in the number of on-pad, ascent, and on-orbit solid-rocket motor (SRM) casings and liquid-rocket tanks which will randomly fail or will fail from range destruct actions. Beyond the obvious safety implications, these failures may have serious resource implications for mission system and facility planners. SRM-casing failures and liquid-rocket tankage failures result in the generation of large, high velocity fragments which may be serious threats to the safety of launch support personnel if proper bunkers and exclusion areas are not provided. In addition, these fragments may be indirect threats to the general public's safety if they encounter hazardous spacecraft payloads which have not been designed to withstand shrapnel of this caliber. They may also become threats to other spacecraft if, by failing on-orbit, they add to the ever increasing space-junk collision cross-section. Most prior attempts to assess the velocity of fragments from failed SRM casings have simply assigned the available chamber impulse to available casing and fuel mass and solved the resulting momentum balance for velocity. This method may predict a fragment velocity which is high or low by a factor of two depending on the ratio of fuel to casing mass extant at the time of failure. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods, the authors devised an analytical approach which properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. This approach uses the Physics International developed PISCES code to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian modeled fuel and casing system. The details of a predictive analytical modeling process as well as the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed in this paper. Methods for applying similar modeling

  14. Wide Ranging Insect Infestation of the Pioneer Mangrove Sonneratia alba by Two Insect Species along the Kenyan Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenoh, Elisha Mrabu; Robert, Elisabeth M R; Lehmann, Ingo; Kioko, Esther; Bosire, Jared O; Ngisiange, Noah; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid; Koedam, Nico

    2016-01-01

    Insect infestation of mangroves currently threatens mangrove forest health and management. In the Western Indian Ocean region, little is known about insect damage to mangroves despite the fact that numerous infestations have occurred. In Kenya, infestations of Sonneratia alba have persisted for almost two decades, yet the taxonomic identity of the infesting pest(s), the extent of infestation, the pests' biology, the impacts of infestation on host and the ecosystem, the host's defensive strategies to the infestation are poorly understood. S. alba is a ubiquitous, pioneer mangrove species of the Indo-Pacific, occurring along the waterfront in a variety of mangrove ecosystem settings. Our main objectives were to identify the pest(s) responsible for the current dieback of S. alba in Kenya, and to determine the extent of infestation. To identify the pests responsible for infestation, we trapped emergent insects and reared larvae in the laboratory. To determine the overall extent of infestation within the S. alba zone, we assessed nine sites along the entire Kenyan coastline for the presence or absence of infested mangroves. Insect infestation in two mangrove embayments (Gazi and Mida) was quantified in depth. Two wood-boring insects were identified: a metarbelid moth (Lepidoptera, Cossoidea) of undescribed genus and the beetle Bottegia rubra (Cerambycidae, Lamiinae).The metarbelid moth infests mangroves in both northern (from Ngomeni to Kiunga) and southern regions (from Vanga to Mtwapa) of the Kenyan coast. B. rubra appeared in low density in Gazi, and in high density in Mida, Kilifi, and Ngomeni, with densities gradually decreasing northward. Insect infestation levels reached 18% in Gazi and 25% of S. alba stands in Mida. Our results indicate that B. rubra has the ability to infest young mangrove trees and expand its range, posing a danger to rehabilitation efforts where plantations have been established. Thus, there is great need for forest managers to address the

  15. Elucidating the native sources of an invasive tree species, Acacia pycnantha, reveals unexpected native range diversity and structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndlovu, Joice; Richardson, David M; Wilson, John R U; O'Leary, Martin; Le Roux, Johannes J

    2013-05-01

    Understanding the introduction history of invasive plant species is important for their management and identifying effective host-specific biological control agents. However, uncertain taxonomy, intra- and interspecific hybridization, and cryptic speciation may obscure introduction histories, making it difficult to identify native regions to explore for host-specific agents. The overall aim of this study was to identify the native source populations of Acacia pycnantha, a tree native to south-eastern Australia and invasive in South Africa, Western Australia and Portugal. Using a phylogeographical approach also allowed an exploration of the historical processes that have shaped the genetic structure of A. pycnantha in its native range. Nuclear (nDNA) and plastid DNA sequence data were used in network and tree-building analyses to reconstruct phylogeographical relationships between native and invasive A. pycnantha populations. In addition, mismatch distributions, relative rates and Bayesian analyses were used to infer recent demographic processes and timing of events in Australia that led to population structure and diversification. The plastid network indicated that Australian populations of A. pycnantha are geographically structured into two informally recognized lineages, the wetland and dryland forms, whereas the nuclear phylogeny showed little geographical structure between these two forms. Moreover, the dryland form of A. pycnantha showed close genetic similarity to the wetland form based on nDNA sequence data. Hybrid zones may explain these findings, supported here by incongruent phylogenetic placement of some of these taxa between nuclear and plastid genealogies. It is hypothesized that habitat fragmentation due to cycles of aridity inter-dispersed with periods of abundant rainfall during the Pleistocene (approx. 100 kya) probably gave rise to native dryland and wetland forms of A. pycnantha. Although the different lineages were confined to different

  16. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogen species in chlorinated saline cooling waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lietzke, M. H.; Haag, W. R.

    1979-01-01

    A kinetic model for predicting the composition of chlorinated water discharged from power plants using fresh water for cooling was previously reported. The model has now been extended to be applicable to power plants located on estuaries or on the seacoast where saline water is used for cooling purposes. When chloride is added to seawater to prevent biofouling in cooling systems, bromine is liberated. Since this reaction proceeds at a finite rate there is a competition between the bromine (i.e., hypobromous acid) and the added chlorine (i.e., hypochlorous acid) for halogenation of any amine species present in the water. Hence not only chloramines but also bromamines and bromochloramines will be formed, with the relative concentrations a function of the pH, temperature, and salinity of the water. The kinetic model takes into account the chemical reactions leading to the formation and disappearance of the more important halamines and hypohalous acids likely to be encountered in chlorinated saline water.

  17. Species richness of vascular plants along the climatic range of the Spanish dehesas at two spatial scales

    OpenAIRE

    Jose M. Garcia del Barrio; Rafael Alonso Ponce; Raquel Benavides; Sonia Roig

    2014-01-01

    Aims of study: The goals of this paper are to summarize and to compare plant species richness and floristic similarity at two spatial scales; mesohabitat (normal, eutrophic, and oligotrophic dehesas) and dehesa habitat; and to establish guidelines for conserving species diversity in dehesas.Area of study: We considered four dehesa sites in the western Peninsular Spain, located along a climatic and biogeographic gradient from north to south. Main results: Average alpha richness for mesohabitat...

  18. Efficacy of GPS cluster analysis for predicting carnivory sites of a wide-ranging omnivore: the American black bear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindschuh, Sarah R.; Cain, James W.; Daniel, David; Peyton, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    The capacity to describe and quantify predation by large carnivores expanded considerably with the advent of GPS technology. Analyzing clusters of GPS locations formed by carnivores facilitates the detection of predation events by identifying characteristics which distinguish predation sites. We present a performance assessment of GPS cluster analysis as applied to the predation and scavenging of an omnivore, the American black bear (Ursus americanus), on ungulate prey and carrion. Through field investigations of 6854 GPS locations from 24 individual bears, we identified 54 sites where black bears formed a cluster of locations while predating or scavenging elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), or cattle (Bos spp.). We developed models for three data sets to predict whether a GPS cluster was formed at a carnivory site vs. a non-carnivory site (e.g., bed sites or non-ungulate foraging sites). Two full-season data sets contained GPS locations logged at either 3-h or 30-min intervals from April to November, and a third data set contained 30-min interval data from April through July corresponding to the calving period for elk. Longer fix intervals resulted in the detection of fewer carnivory sites. Clusters were more likely to be carnivory sites if they occurred in open or edge habitats, if they occurred in the early season, if the mean distance between all pairs of GPS locations within the cluster was less, and if the cluster endured for a longer period of time. Clusters were less likely to be carnivory sites if they were initiated in the morning or night compared to the day. The top models for each data set performed well and successfully predicted 71–96% of field-verified carnivory events, 55–75% of non–carnivory events, and 58–76% of clusters overall. Refinement of this method will benefit from further application across species and ecological systems.

  19. A new species of Pseudocalotes (Squamata: Agamidae) from the Bukit Barisan Range of Sumatra with an Estimation of its phylogeny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Michael B; Shaney, Kyle; Hamidy, Amir; Kurniawan, Nia; Smith, Eric N

    2017-06-11

    We describe a new species of Pseudocalotes from montane forests of the central, western coast of Sumatra. The combination of 3 or 4 interoculabials, slightly enlarged and heavily keeled scales on the lower flanks, a white scapular spot, a relatively long fifth toe, bicarinate lamellae at the base of Toe III, absence of a postrictal modified scale, and three rows of paravertebrals directed dorsally and posteriorly distinguishes the new species from its congeners on Sumatra and Java. Among the new characters defined in this study, counts of subdigital lamellae within the "span of Toe V" proved particularly useful for diagnosing species of Pseudocalotes. Phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences identified a monophyletic group containing the Sumatran and Javan Pseudocalotes. Based on the phylogeny, we define a P. cybelidermus Group containing P. cybelidermus and P. guttalineatus and a P. tympanistriga Group containing P. tympanistriga, P. rhammanotus, and the new species. Combinations of five morphological characters define each of these two clades. As currently defined, Pseudocalotes is polyphyletic; Javan and Sumatran species are more closely related to other draconines such as Dendragama boulengeri than they are to some mainland species.

  20. Poaceae Pollen From Southern Brazil: Distinguishing Grasslands (Campos From Forests by Analyzing a Diverse Range of Poaceae Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Nunes Radaeski

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This aim of this study was to distinguish grasslands from forests in southern Brazil by analyzing Poaceae pollen grains. Through light microscopy analysis, we measured the size of the pollen grain, pore, and annulus from 68 species of Rio Grande do Sul. Measurements were recorded of 10 forest species and 58 grassland species, representing all tribes of the Poaceae in Rio Grande do Sul. We measured the polar, equatorial, pore, and annulus diameter. Results of statistical tests showed that arboreous forest species have larger pollen grain sizes than grassland and herbaceous forest species, and in particular there are strongly significant differences between arboreous and grassland species. Discriminant analysis identified three distinct groups representing each vegetation type. Through the pollen measurements we established three pollen types: larger grains (>46 µm, from the Bambuseae pollen type, medium-sized grains (46–22µm, from herbaceous pollen type, and small grains (<22 µm, from grassland pollen type. The results of our compiled Poaceae pollen dataset may be applied to the fossil pollen of Quaternary sediments.

  1. Integrated Land Data Assimilation System for Numerical Weather Prediction at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Rosnay, Patricia; Hólm, Elias; Bonavita, Massimo; English, Steve

    2017-04-01

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system relies on an Earth System approach focusing on atmosphere, ocean, waves, land, and sea ice. Different data assimilation methods are used for the each component of the Earth System. A hybrid 4D-Var is used for the atmosphere, a simplified sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea ice analysis is used for medium-range forecasts and for the reanalyses (ERA-Interim and ERA5). The ECMWF land and atmosphere data assimilation systems are weakly coupled, using a coupled land-atmosphere background forecast and separate analyses for the atmosphere and for the surface (soil moisture and snow). Conventional and satellite observations that inform on the state of both subsystems are assimilated. They are located at the land-atmosphere interface and include two-metre temperature and relative humidity, snow depth, and soil moisture. In this presentation we present the land-atmosphere weakly coupled assimilation currently used at ECMWF for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) purpose. Perspectives of coupling enhancement using Ensemble Data Assimilaton (EDA) and EDA-based cross correlation estimates with coupling at the outer loop level of the atmospheric 4D-Var are discussed.

  2. Do species distribution models predict species richness in urban and natural green spaces? A case study using amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban green spaces are potentially important to biodiversity conservation because they represent habitat islands in a mosaic of development, and could harbor high biodiversity or provide connectivity to nearby habitat. Presence only species distribution models (SDMs) represent a ...

  3. Derivation of predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) for 2,4,6-trichlorophenol based on Chinese resident species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiaowei; Zha, Jinmiao; Xu, Yiping; Giesy, John P; Richardson, Kristine L; Wang, Zijian

    2012-01-01

    2,4,6-Trichlorophenol (2,4,6-TCP) is a common chemical intermediate and a by-product of water chlorination and combustion processes, and is a priority pollutant of the aquatic environment in many countries. Although information on the toxicity of 2,4,6-TCP is available, there is a lack of information on the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) of 2,4,6-TCP, mainly due to the shortage of chronic and site-specific toxicity data. In the present study, acute and sub-chronic toxicity of 2,4,6-TCP on six different resident Chinese aquatic species were determined. PNEC values were calculated and compared by use of two approaches: assessment factor (AF) and species sensitivity distribution (SSD). Values for acute toxicity ranged from 1.1 mg L(-1) (Plagiognathops microlepis) to 42 mg L(-1) (Corbicula fluminea) and the sub-chronic no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) ranged from 0.05 mg L(-1) (Mylopharyngodon piceus) to 2.0 mg L(-1) (C. fluminea). PNECs obtained by the assessment factor approach with acute (AF=1000, 0.001 mg L(-1)) or chronic (AF=10, 0.005 mg L(-1)) toxicity data were one order of magnitude less than those from SSD methods (0.057 mg L(-1)). PNEC values calculated using SSD methods with a 50% certainty for 2,4,6-TCP was less than those obtained by use of the USEPA recommend final chronic value (FCV) method (0.097 mg L(-1)) and the one obtained by use of the USEPA recommend acute-to-chronic (ACR) methods (0.073 mg L(-1)). PNECs derived using AF methods were more protective and conservative than that derived using SSD methods. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Increasing species richness of the macrozoobenthic fauna on tidal flats of the Wadden Sea by local range expansion and invasion of exotic species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukema, J.; Dekker, R.

    2011-01-01

    A 40-y series of consistently collected samples (15 fixed sampling sites, constant sampled area of 15 × 0.95 m2, annual sampling only in late-winter/early-spring seasons, and consistent sieving and sorting procedures; restriction to 50 easily recognizable species) of macrozoobenthos on Balgzand, a

  5. Predictions for an invaded world: A strategy to predict the distribution of native and non-indigenous species at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusser, D.A.; Lee, H.

    2008-01-01

    Habitat models can be used to predict the distributions of marine and estuarine non-indigenous species (NIS) over several spatial scales. At an estuary scale, our goal is to predict the estuaries most likely to be invaded, but at a habitat scale, the goal is to predict the specific locations within an estuary that are most vulnerable to invasion. As an initial step in evaluating several habitat models, model performance for a suite of benthic species with reasonably well-known distributions on the Pacific coast of the US needs to be compared. We discuss the utility of non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for predicting habitat- and estuary-scale distributions of native and NIS. NPMR incorporates interactions among variables, allows qualitative and categorical variables, and utilizes data on absence as well as presence. Preliminary results indicate that NPMR generally performs well at both spatial scales and that distributions of NIS are predicted as well as those of native species. For most species, latitude was the single best predictor, although similar model performance could be obtained at both spatial scales with combinations of other habitat variables. Errors of commission were more frequent at a habitat scale, with omission and commission errors approximately equal at an estuary scale. ?? 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.

  6. Brain size predicts the success of mammal species introduced into novel environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sol, Daniel; Bacher, Sven; Reader, Simon M; Lefebvre, Louis

    2008-07-01

    Large brains, relative to body size, can confer advantages to individuals in the form of behavioral flexibility. Such enhanced behavioral flexibility is predicted to carry fitness benefits to individuals facing novel or altered environmental conditions, a theory known as the brain size-environmental change hypothesis. Here, we provide the first empirical link between brain size and survival in novel environments in mammals, the largest-brained animals on Earth. Using a global database documenting the outcome of more than 400 introduction events, we show that mammal species with larger brains, relative to their body mass, tend to be more successful than species with smaller brains at establishing themselves when introduced to novel environments, when both taxonomic and regional autocorrelations are accounted for. This finding is robust to the effect of other factors known to influence establishment success, including introduction effort and habitat generalism. Our results replicate similar findings in birds, increasing the generality of evidence for the idea that enlarged brains can provide a survival advantage in novel environments.

  7. Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alimi, Temitope O; Fuller, Douglas O; Qualls, Whitney A; Herrera, Socrates V; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quinones, Martha L; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Beier, John C

    2015-08-20

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts. Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent. Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution. As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.

  8. Can REDD+ help the conservation of restricted-range island species? Insights from the endemism hotspot of São Tomé

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Lima, Ricardo Faustino; Olmos, Fábio; Dallimer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through "Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation". Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim......+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species....

  9. The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mindy M Syfert

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt. In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.

  10. Biological Networks for Predicting Chemical Hepatocarcinogenicity Using Gene Expression Data from Treated Mice and Relevance across Human and Rat Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Reuben; Thomas, Russell S.; Auerbach, Scott S.; Portier, Christopher J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Several groups have employed genomic data from subchronic chemical toxicity studies in rodents (90 days) to derive gene-centric predictors of chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity. Genes are annotated to belong to biological processes or molecular pathways that are mechanistically well understood and are described in public databases. Objectives To develop a molecular pathway-based prediction model of long term hepatocarcinogenicity using 90-day gene expression data and to evaluate the performance of this model with respect to both intra-species, dose-dependent and cross-species predictions. Methods Genome-wide hepatic mRNA expression was retrospectively measured in B6C3F1 mice following subchronic exposure to twenty-six (26) chemicals (10 were positive, 2 equivocal and 14 negative for liver tumors) previously studied by the US National Toxicology Program. Using these data, a pathway-based predictor model for long-term liver cancer risk was derived using random forests. The prediction model was independently validated on test sets associated with liver cancer risk obtained from mice, rats and humans. Results Using 5-fold cross validation, the developed prediction model had reasonable predictive performance with the area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) equal to 0.66. The developed prediction model was then used to extrapolate the results to data associated with rat and human liver cancer. The extrapolated model worked well for both extrapolated species (AUC value of 0.74 for rats and 0.91 for humans). The prediction models implied a balanced interplay between all pathway responses leading to carcinogenicity predictions. Conclusions Pathway-based prediction models estimated from sub-chronic data hold promise for predicting long-term carcinogenicity and also for its ability to extrapolate results across multiple species. PMID:23737943

  11. Biological networks for predicting chemical hepatocarcinogenicity using gene expression data from treated mice and relevance across human and rat species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reuben Thomas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several groups have employed genomic data from subchronic chemical toxicity studies in rodents (90 days to derive gene-centric predictors of chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity. Genes are annotated to belong to biological processes or molecular pathways that are mechanistically well understood and are described in public databases. OBJECTIVES: To develop a molecular pathway-based prediction model of long term hepatocarcinogenicity using 90-day gene expression data and to evaluate the performance of this model with respect to both intra-species, dose-dependent and cross-species predictions. METHODS: Genome-wide hepatic mRNA expression was retrospectively measured in B6C3F1 mice following subchronic exposure to twenty-six (26 chemicals (10 were positive, 2 equivocal and 14 negative for liver tumors previously studied by the US National Toxicology Program. Using these data, a pathway-based predictor model for long-term liver cancer risk was derived using random forests. The prediction model was independently validated on test sets associated with liver cancer risk obtained from mice, rats and humans. RESULTS: Using 5-fold cross validation, the developed prediction model had reasonable predictive performance with the area under receiver-operator curve (AUC equal to 0.66. The developed prediction model was then used to extrapolate the results to data associated with rat and human liver cancer. The extrapolated model worked well for both extrapolated species (AUC value of 0.74 for rats and 0.91 for humans. The prediction models implied a balanced interplay between all pathway responses leading to carcinogenicity predictions. CONCLUSIONS: Pathway-based prediction models estimated from sub-chronic data hold promise for predicting long-term carcinogenicity and also for its ability to extrapolate results across multiple species.

  12. An experimental comparison of leaf decomposition rates in a wide range of temperate plant species and types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cornelissen, J. H.C.

    1996-01-01

    1 An experimental multispecies screening of leaf decomposition rates was undertaken in order to identify and quantify general patterns in leaf decomposition rates in functional plant types and taxa. Functional species groups were characterized using whole-plant and whole-leaf features relevant to

  13. Stem anatomy and relative growth rate in seedlings of a wide range of woody plant species and types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro-Díez, P.; Puyravaud, J.P.; Cornelissen, J. H C; Villar-Salvador, P.

    Stem traits were analysed in laboratory-grown seedlings of 80 European woody and semiwoody species of known potential relative growth rate (RGR) and of similar ontogenetic phase. The objectives were, firstly, to assess the relation between stem structure and plant growth potential and, secondly, to

  14. Changes of bat activity, species richness, diversity and community composition over an altitudinal gradient in the Soutpansberg range, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, V.M.G.; Weier, S.M.; Gaigher, I.; Kuipers, H.J.; Weterings, M.J.A.; Taylor, P.

    2014-01-01

    Bats are important indicator species which can help in identifying areas where conservation efforts should be concentrated and whether these areas are affected by ongoing climate change. To elucidate factors limiting and influencing the elevational distribution of bats in a recognised biodiversity

  15. A population model for predicting the successful establishment of introduced bird species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Phillip; Prowse, Thomas A A; Blackburn, Tim M

    2014-05-01

    One of the strongest generalities in invasion biology is the positive relationship between probability of establishment and the numbers of individuals introduced. Nevertheless, a number of significant questions remain regarding: (1) the relative importance of different processes during introduction (e.g., demographic, environmental, and genetic stochasticity, and Allee effects); (2) the relative effects of propagule pressure (e.g., number of introductions, size of introductions, and lag between introductions); and (3) different life history characteristics of the species themselves. Here, we adopt an individual-based simulation modeling approach to explore a range of such details in the relationship between establishment success and numbers of individuals introduced. Our models are developed for typical exotic bird introductions, for which the relationship between probability of establishment and the numbers of individuals introduced has been particularly well documented. For both short-lived and long-lived species, probability of establishment decreased across multiple introductions (compared with a single introduction of the same total size), and this decrease was greater when inbreeding depression was included. Sensitivity analyses revealed four predictors that together accounted for >95% of model performance. Of these, R 0 (the average number of daughters produced per female over her lifetime) and propagule pressure were of primary importance, while random environmental effects and inbreeding depression exerted lesser influence. Initial founder size is undoubtedly going to be important for ensuring the persistence of introduced populations. However, we found the demographic traits, which influence how introduced individuals behave, to have the greatest effect on establishment success.

  16. Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

    2011-12-20

    The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

  17. Transversotrema Witenberg, 1944 (Trematoda: Transversotrematidae) from inshore fishes of Australia: description of a new species and significant range extensions for three congeners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutmore, Scott C; Diggles, Ben K; Cribb, Thomas H

    2016-09-01

    Four transversotrematid trematodes are reported from commercial teleost species in Australian waters. Transversotrema hunterae n. sp. is described from three species of Sillago Cuvier (Sillaginidae) from Moreton Bay, south-east Queensland. Molecular characterisation using ITS2 rDNA confirmed this stenoxenic specificity of Transversotrema hunterae n. sp., with identical sequence data from Sillago maculata Quoy & Gaimard, S. analis Whitley and S. ciliata Cuvier. Phylogenetic analysis, based on 28S rDNA data, demonstrates that T. hunterae n. sp. belongs to the 'Transversotrema licinum clade' and is most closely related to Transversotrema licinum Manter, 1970 and T. polynesiae Cribb, Adlard, Bray, Sasal & Cutmore, 2014, with the three species forming a well-supported clade in all analyses. We extend the known host and geographical ranges of three previously described Transversotrema species, T. licinum, T. elegans Hunter, Ingram, Adlard, Bray & Cribb, 2010 and T. espanola Hunter & Cribb, 2012. The new records represent significant range extensions for the three species and permit further examination of the patterns of biogeographical distribution in Australian waters. Host-specificity of Transversotrema species is examined, and the degree to which morphological analysis can inform taxonomic studies of this group is discussed.

  18. The effects of past, present and future climate change on range-wide genetic diversity in northern North Atlantic marine species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jim Provan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available It is now accepted that changes in the Earth’s climate are having a profound effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species. One aspect of these changes that has only recently received any attention, however, is their potential effect on levels of within-species genetic diversity. Theoretical, empirical and modelling studies suggest that the impact of trailing-edge population extirpation on range-wide intraspecific diversity will be most pronounced in species that harbour the majority of their genetic variation at low latitudes as a result of changes during the Quaternary glaciations. In the present review, I describe the historical factors that have determined current patterns of genetic variation across the ranges of Northern North Atlantic species, highlight the fact that the majority of these species do indeed harbour a disproportionate level of genetic diversity in rear-edge populations, and outline how combined species distribution modelling and genetic analyses can provide insights into the potential effects of climate change on their overall genetic diversity.

  19. Chromosomal dynamics predicted by an elastic network model explains genome-wide accessibility and long-range couplings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerwald, Natalie; Zhang, She; Kingsford, Carl; Bahar, Ivet

    2017-04-20

    Understanding the three-dimensional (3D) architecture of chromatin and its relation to gene expression and regulation is fundamental to understanding how the genome functions. Advances in Hi-C technology now permit us to study 3D genome organization, but we still lack an understanding of the structural dynamics of chromosomes. The dynamic couplings between regions separated by large genomic distances (>50 Mb) have yet to be characterized. We adapted a well-established protein-modeling framework, the Gaussian Network Model (GNM), to model chromatin dynamics using Hi-C data. We show that the GNM can identify spatial couplings at multiple scales: it can quantify the correlated fluctuations in the positions of gene loci, find large genomic compartments and smaller topologically-associating domains (TADs) that undergo en bloc movements, and identify dynamically coupled distal regions along the chromosomes. We show that the predictions of the GNM correlate well with genome-wide experimental measurements. We use the GNM to identify novel cross-correlated distal domains (CCDDs) representing pairs of regions distinguished by their long-range dynamic coupling and show that CCDDs are associated with increased gene co-expression. Together, these results show that GNM provides a mathematically well-founded unified framework for modeling chromatin dynamics and assessing the structural basis of genome-wide observations. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  20. Predicted image quality of a CMOS APS X-ray detector across a range of mammographic beam qualities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstantinidis, A.

    2015-09-01

    Digital X-ray detectors based on Complementary Metal-Oxide- Semiconductor (CMOS) Active Pixel Sensor (APS) technology have been introduced in the early 2000s in medical imaging applications. In a previous study the X-ray performance (i.e. presampling Modulation Transfer Function (pMTF), Normalized Noise Power Spectrum (NNPS), Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and Detective Quantum Efficiency (DQE)) of the Dexela 2923MAM CMOS APS X-ray detector was evaluated within the mammographic energy range using monochromatic synchrotron radiation (i.e. 17-35 keV). In this study image simulation was used to predict how the mammographic beam quality affects image quality. In particular, the experimentally measured monochromatic pMTF, NNPS and SNR parameters were combined with various mammographic spectral shapes (i.e. Molybdenum/Molybdenum (Mo/Mo), Rhodium/Rhodium (Rh/Rh), Tungsten/Aluminium (W/Al) and Tungsten/Rhodium (W/Rh) anode/filtration combinations at 28 kV). The image quality was measured in terms of Contrast-to-Noise Ratio (CNR) using a synthetic breast phantom (4 cm thick with 50% glandularity). The results can be used to optimize the imaging conditions in order to minimize patient's Mean Glandular Dose (MGD).

  1. Plant species' origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Buckley, Yvonne M; Cleland, Elsa E; Davies, Kendi F; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Lind, Eric M; MacDougall, Andrew S; Orrock, John L; Prober, Suzanne M; Adler, Peter B; Anderson, T Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D; Biederman, Lori A; Blumenthal, Dana M; Brown, Cynthia S; Brudvig, Lars A; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cottingham, Kathryn L; Crawley, Michael J; Damschen, Ellen I; Dantonio, Carla M; DeCrappeo, Nicole M; Du, Guozhen; Fay, Philip A; Frater, Paul; Gruner, Daniel S; Hagenah, Nicole; Hector, Andy; Hillebrand, Helmut; Hofmockel, Kirsten S; Humphries, Hope C; Jin, Virginia L; Kay, Adam; Kirkman, Kevin P; Klein, Julia A; Knops, Johannes M H; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Ladwig, Laura; Lambrinos, John G; Li, Qi; Li, Wei; Marushia, Robin; McCulley, Rebecca L; Melbourne, Brett A; Mitchell, Charles E; Moore, Joslin L; Morgan, John; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R; Pyke, David A; Risch, Anita C; Sankaran, Mahesh; Schuetz, Martin; Simonsen, Anna; Smith, Melinda D; Stevens, Carly J; Sullivan, Lauren; Wolkovich, Elizabeth; Wragg, Peter D; Wright, Justin; Yang, Louie

    2015-07-15

    Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands.

  2. Does a Species' Extinction-Proneness Predict Its Contribution to Nestedness? A Test Using a Sunbird-Tree Visitation Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsor, Charles A; Chapman, Hazel M; Godsoe, William

    2017-01-01

    Animal pollinators and the plants they pollinate depend on networks of mutualistic partnerships and more broadly on the stability of such networks. Based mainly on insect-plant visitation networks, theory predicts that species that are most prone to extinction contribute the most to nestedness, however empirical tests are rare. We used a sunbird-tree visitation network within which were both extinction prone vs non extinction prone sunbird species to test the idea. We predicted that the extinction prone species would contribute the most to nestedness. Using local abundance as a proxy for extinction risk we considered that locally rare sunbird species, by virtue of their small population size and associated demographic stochasticity to be more at risk of extinction than the common species. Our network was not strongly nested and all sunbird species made similar contributions to nestedness, so that in our empirical test, extinction proneness did not predict contribution to nestedness. The consequences of this finding remain unclear. It may be that network theory based on plant-insect mutualisms is not widely applicable and does not work for tree- sunbird mutualistic networks. Alternatively it may be that our network was too small to provide results with any statistical power. Without doubt our study highlights the problems faced when testing network theory in the field; a plethora of ecological considerations can variously impact on results.

  3. Species richness and traits predict overyielding in stem growth in an early-successional tree diversity experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Jake J; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Hobbie, Sarah E; Reich, Peter B; Montgomery, Rebecca A

    2017-10-01

    Over the last two decades, empirical work has established that higher biodiversity can lead to greater primary productivity; however, the importance of different aspects of biodiversity in contributing to such relationships is rarely elucidated. We assessed the relative importance of species richness, phylogenetic diversity, functional diversity, and identity of neighbors for stem growth 3 yr after seedling establishment in a tree diversity experiment in eastern Minnesota. Generally, we found that community-weighted means of key functional traits (including mycorrhizal association, leaf nitrogen and calcium, and waterlogging tolerance) as well as species richness were strong, independent predictors of stem biomass growth. More phylogenetically diverse communities did not consistently produce more biomass than expected, and the trait values or diversity of individual functional traits better predicted biomass production than did a multidimensional functional diversity metric. Furthermore, functional traits and species richness best predicted growth at the whole-plot level (12 m(2) ), whereas neighborhood composition best predicted growth at the focal tree level (0.25 m(2) ). The observed effects of biodiversity on growth appear strongly driven by positive complementary effects rather than by species-specific selection effects, suggesting that synergistic species' interactions rather than the influence of a few important species may drive overyielding. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Using additive and coupled spatiotemporal SPDE models: a flexible illustration for predicting occurrence of Culicoides species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kifle, Yimer Wasihun; Hens, Niel; Faes, Christel

    2017-11-01

    This paper formulates and compares a general class of spatiotemporal models for univariate space-time geostatistical data. The implementation of stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach combined with integrated nested Laplace approximation into the R-INLA package makes it computationally feasible to use spatiotemporal models. However, the impact of specifying models with and without space-time interaction is unclear. We formulate an extensive class of additive and coupled spatiotemporal SPDE models and investigate the distinction between them by (1) Extending their temporal effect, allowing a random walk process in time, (2) varying the spatial correlation function and (3) running a simulation study to assess the effect of misspecifying the spatial and temporal models, and to assess the generalizability of our results to a higher number of locations. Our methods are illustrated with Culicoides data from Belgium. The Bayesian spatial predictions showed that the highest prevalence of Culicoides species was found in the Northeastern and central parts of Belgium during summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A conserved functional role of pectic polymers in stomatal guard cells from a range of plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Louise; Milne, Jennifer L; Ashford, David; McCann, Maureen C; McQueen-Mason, Simon J

    2005-05-01

    Guard cell walls combine exceptional strength and flexibility in order to accommodate the turgor pressure-driven changes in size and shape that underlie the opening and closing of stomatal pores. To investigate the molecular basis of these exceptional qualities, we have used a combination of compositional and functional analyses in three different plant species. We show that comparisons of FTIR spectra from stomatal guard cells and those of other epidermal cells indicate a number of clear differences in cell-wall composition. The most obvious characteristics are that stomatal guard cells are enriched in phenolic esters of pectins. This enrichment is apparent in guard cells from Vicia faba (possessing a type I cell wall) and Commelina communis and Zea mays (having a type II wall). We further show that these common defining elements of guard cell walls have conserved functional roles. As previously reported in C. communis, we show that enzymatic modification of the pectin network in guard cell walls in both V. faba and Z. mays has profound effects on stomatal function. In all three species, incubation of epidermal strips with a combination of pectin methyl esterase and endopolygalacturonase (EPG) caused an increase in stomatal aperture on opening. This effect was not seen when strips were incubated with EPG alone indicating that the methyl-esterified fraction of homogalacturonan is key to this effect. In contrast, arabinanase treatment, and incubation with feruloyl esterase both impeded stomatal opening. It therefore appears that pectins and phenolic esters have a conserved functional role in guard cell walls even in grass species with type II walls, which characteristically are composed of low levels of pectins.

  6. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Rivera, Edwin; Malaquias, Manuel António E

    2016-01-01

    The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt), a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy) and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny). Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown.

  7. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Cruz-Rivera

    Full Text Available The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt, a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny. Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown.

  8. The genetic structure of populations of an invading pest fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, at the species climatic range limit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilchrist, A S; Meats, A W

    2010-08-01

    Previous population genetic studies of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae), in its central range have shown barely detectable genetic differentiation across distances of almost 3000 km (F(st)=0.003). In this study, we investigated the genetic structuring of southern border populations of B. tryoni, in the region extending from the central population to the recently colonized southern range limit. The expectation was that marginal populations would be small, fragmented population sinks, with local adaptation limited by gene flow or drift. Unexpectedly, we found that the population at the southern extreme of the range was a source population, rather than a sink, for the surrounding region. This was shown by assignment testing of recent outbreaks in an adjoining quarantine area and by indirect migration estimates. Furthermore, populations in the region had formed a latitudinal cline in microsatellite allele frequencies, spanning the region between the central population and the southern range limit. The cline has formed within 250 generations of the initial invasion and appears stable between years. We show that there is restricted gene flow in the region and that effective population sizes are of the order of 10(2)-10(3). Although the cline may result from natural selection, neutral evolutionary processes may also explain our findings.

  9. Leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought is linked to site water availability across a broad range of species and climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background and Aims: Vulnerability of the leaf hydraulic pathway to water-stress-induced dysfunction is a key component of drought tolerance in plants and may be important in defining species’ climatic range. However, the generality of the association between leaf hydraulic vulnerability and climate...

  10. Changes in home range sizes and population densities of carnivore species along the natural to urban habitat gradient

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šálek, Martin; Drahníková, L.; Tkadlec, Emil

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2015), s. 1-14 ISSN 0305-1838 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Carnivores * home range size * natural–urban gradient * population density * review Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 4.116, year: 2015

  11. Clinal adaptation and adaptive plasticity in Artemisia californica: implications for the response of a foundation species to predicted climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Jessica D; Mooney, Kailen A

    2013-08-01

    Local adaptation and plasticity pose significant obstacles to predicting plant responses to future climates. Although local adaptation and plasticity in plant functional traits have been documented for many species, less is known about population-level variation in plasticity and whether such variation is driven by adaptation to environmental variation. We examined clinal variation in traits and performance - and plastic responses to environmental change - for the shrub Artemisia californica along a 700 km gradient characterized (from south to north) by a fourfold increase in precipitation and a 61% decrease in interannual precipitation variation. Plants cloned from five populations along this gradient were grown for 3 years in treatments approximating the precipitation regimes of the north and south range margins. Most traits varying among populations did so clinally; northern populations (vs. southern) had higher water-use efficiencies and lower growth rates, C : N ratios and terpene concentrations. Notably, there was variation in plasticity for plant performance that was strongly correlated with source site interannual precipitation variability. The high-precipitation treatment (vs. low) increased growth and flower production more for plants from southern populations (181% and 279%, respectively) than northern populations (47% and 20%, respectively). Overall, precipitation variability at population source sites predicted 86% and 99% of variation in plasticity in growth and flowering, respectively. These striking, clinal patterns in plant traits and plasticity are indicative of adaptation to both the mean and variability of environmental conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of long-term coastal climate data in turn indicates an increase in interannual precipitation variation consistent with most global change models and, unexpectedly, this increased variation is especially pronounced at historically stable, northern sites. Our findings demonstrate the

  12. New species of Geissorhiza (Iridaceae: Crocoideae from the southern African winter rainfall zone, range extensions, taxonomic changes, and notes on pollen morphology and floral ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Goldblatt

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Field work during the past 15 years has resulted in the discovery of 12 new species of the western southern African genus Geissorhiza Ker Gawl. and range extensions for several more. Following a survey of pollen morphology in the genus, we describe new pollen types in one section each of the two subgenera: five species of section  Ciliatae Goldblatt and two of  section Weihea Eckl. ex Baker have more complex apertures than the plesiomorphic single aperture with a 2-banded oper­culum found in other species. In addition, populations currently referred to the typical white (cream-flowered  G. inflexa (D.Delaroche Goldblatt with larger, pink, red or purple flowers, have a third pollen type and are recognized as  G. erosa (Salisb. R.C.Foster. The new species are G. altimontana from the high Langeberg near Grootvadersbos; G. helmei from the Piketberg; G. lupidosa from the Du Toits Kloof Mtns; G. monticola from the Swartberg; G. platystigma from Darling, north of Cape Town; G. sufflava from the Piketberg; G. tricolor from Riversdale (all subgenus Weihea (Eckl. ex Baker Goldblatt; and G. cantharophila from the Klein Roggeveld; G. demissa from the Kamiesberg. Gitberg and Cold Bokkeveld; G. exilis from the Waaihoek Mtns in the Worcester District;  G. reclinata from the Swartberg: and G. saxicola from the northern Cedarberg-Pakhuis Mountain complex (all subgenus Geissorhiza. We also report range extensions and provide morphological notes for several species, including  G. monanthos Eckl.. new collections o f w hich show that the inclusion of G. leuisiae R.C.Foster in that species was incorrect and we resurrect the species. The addition of 12 new species and recognition of G. erosa and G. lewisiae bring to 99 the number of species in the genus. New identification keys for Geissorhiza are provided that include all new species. We have also accumulated observations of floral ecology in the genus and integrate them with what is known about this aspect

  13. Individual-level variation and higher-level interpretations of space use in wide-ranging species: An albatross case study of sampling effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Elizabeth Gutowsky

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Marine ecologists and managers need to know the spatial extent of at-sea areas most frequented by the groups of wildlife they study or manage. Defining group-specific ranges and distributions (i.e. space use at the level of species, population, age-class, etc. can help to identify the source or severity of common or distinct threats among different at-risk groups. In biologging studies, this is accomplished by estimating the space use of a group based on a sample of tracked individuals. A major assumption of these studies is consistency in individual movements among members of a group. The implications of scaling up individual-level tracking data to infer higher-level spatial patterns for groups (i.e. size and extent of areas used, overlap or segregation among groups is not well documented for wide-ranging pelagic species with high potential for individual variation in space use. We present a case study exploring the effects of sampling (i.e. number and identity of individuals contributing to an analysis on defining group-specific space use with year-round multi-colony tracking data from two highly vagile species, Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis and black-footed (P. nigripes albatrosses. The results clearly demonstrate that caution is warranted when defining space use for a specific species-colony-period group based on datasets of small, intermediate, or relatively large sample sizes (ranging from n=3-42 tracked individuals due to a high degree of individual-level variation in movements. Overall, we provide further support to the recommendation that biologging studies aiming to define higher-level patterns in space use exercise restraint in the scope of inference, particularly when pooled Kernel Density Estimation techniques are applied to small datasets for wide-ranging species. Transparent reporting in respect to the potential limitations of the data can in turn better inform both biological interpretations and science-based management

  14. Not to put too fine a point on it - does increasing precision of geographic referencing improve species distribution models for a wide-ranging migratory bat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Ozenberger, Katharine; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Bat s