WorldWideScience

Sample records for species range prediction

  1. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...

  2. Predicting Achievable Fundamental Frequency Ranges in Vocalization Across Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo Titze

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Vocal folds are used as sound sources in various species, but it is unknown how vocal fold morphologies are optimized for different acoustic objectives. Here we identify two main variables affecting range of vocal fold vibration frequency, namely vocal fold elongation and tissue fiber stress. A simple vibrating string model is used to predict fundamental frequency ranges across species of different vocal fold sizes. While average fundamental frequency is predominantly determined by vocal fold length (larynx size, range of fundamental frequency is facilitated by (1 laryngeal muscles that control elongation and by (2 nonlinearity in tissue fiber tension. One adaptation that would increase fundamental frequency range is greater freedom in joint rotation or gliding of two cartilages (thyroid and cricoid, so that vocal fold length change is maximized. Alternatively, tissue layers can develop to bear a disproportionate fiber tension (i.e., a ligament with high density collagen fibers, increasing the fundamental frequency range and thereby vocal versatility. The range of fundamental frequency across species is thus not simply one-dimensional, but can be conceptualized as the dependent variable in a multi-dimensional morphospace. In humans, this could allow for variations that could be clinically important for voice therapy and vocal fold repair. Alternative solutions could also have importance in vocal training for singing and other highly-skilled vocalizations.

  3. Intraspecific morphological and genetic variation of common species predicts ranges of threatened ones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Trevon L.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Peralvo, Manuel; Buermann, Wolfgang; Milá, Borja; Kieswetter, Charles M.; Jarrín-V, Pablo; Devitt, Susan E. Cameron; Mason, Eliza; Schweizer, Rena M.; Schlunegger, Jasmin; Chan, Janice; Wang, Ophelia; Schneider, Christopher J.; Pollinger, John P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Graham, Catherine H.; Wayne, Robert K.; Smith, Thomas B.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible. PMID:23595273

  4. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  5. Prediction ranges. Annual review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, J.C.; Tharp, W.H.; Spiro, P.S.; Keng, K.; Angastiniotis, M.; Hachey, L.T.

    1988-01-01

    Prediction ranges equip the planner with one more tool for improved assessment of the outcome of a course of action. One of their major uses is in financial evaluations, where corporate policy requires the performance of uncertainty analysis for large projects. This report gives an overview of the uses of prediction ranges, with examples; and risks and uncertainties in growth, inflation, and interest and exchange rates. Prediction ranges and standard deviations of 80% and 50% probability are given for various economic indicators in Ontario, Canada, and the USA, as well as for foreign exchange rates and Ontario Hydro interest rates. An explanatory note on probability is also included. 23 tabs.

  6. Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

    OpenAIRE

    Duscher Tanja; Nopp-Mayr Ursula

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known...

  7. Species distribution modeling for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria and first range predictions for alpine environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duscher Tanja

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known to occur in Austria since 1963 and is now widespread in the northern and eastern parts of the country, but its population density remains low. With the help of a species distribution model we identified focal areas for future monitoring and management actions, and we address some management implications for the raccoon dog in Austria. We also determined the environmental predictors of raccoon dog distribution in this alpine country. Its distribution seems to be mainly limited by climatic factors (snow depth, duration of snow cover, winter precipitation and mean annual temperature and is thus linked to elevation. Consequently, we assumed the Alps to be a barrier for the spread of the invasive raccoon dog in Europe; however, its ecological permeability is expected to increase with ongoing climate change.

  8. Species-specific ecological niche modelling predicts different range contractions for Lutzomyia intermedia and a related vector of Leishmania braziliensis following climate change in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Shannon; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Carvalho, Bruno M

    2017-03-24

    Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5). Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2). Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods. Our

  9. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  10. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  11. Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M

    2016-02-01

    Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.

  12. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

    2016-08-01

    Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

  13. Geographical range and local abundance of tree species in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibao Ren

    Full Text Available Most studies on the geographical distribution of species have utilized a few well-known taxa in Europe and North America, with little research in China and its wide range of climate and forest types. We assembled large datasets to quantify the geographic ranges of tree species in China and to test several biogeographic hypotheses: 1 whether locally abundant species tend to be geographically widespread; 2 whether species are more abundant towards their range-centers; and 3 how abundances are correlated between sites. Local abundances of 651 species were derived from four tree plots of 20-25 ha where all individuals ≥1 cm in stem diameter were mapped and identified taxonomically. Range sizes of these species across China were then estimated from over 460,000 geo-referenced records; a Bayesian approach was used, allowing careful measures of error of each range estimate. The log-transformed range sizes had a bell-shaped distribution with a median of 703,000 km(2, and >90% of 651 species had ranges >10(5 km(2. There was no relationship between local abundance and range size, and no evidence for species being more abundant towards their range-centers. Finally, species' abundances were positively correlated between sites. The widespread nature of most tree species in China suggests few are vulnerable to global extinction, and there is no indication of the double-peril that would result if rare species also had narrow ranges.

  14. Geographic range size and determinants of avian species richness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jetz, Walter; Rahbek, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    Geographic patterns in species richness are mainly based on wide-ranging species because their larger number of distribution records has a disproportionate contribution to the species richness counts. Here we demonstrate how this effect strongly influences our understanding of what determines spe...

  15. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

  16. Geographical patterns of adaptation within a species' range : Interactions between drift and gene flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alleaume-Benharira, M; Pen, IR; Ronce, O

    We use individual-based stochastic simulations and analytical deterministic predictions to investigate the interaction between drift, natural selection and gene flow on the patterns of local adaptation across a fragmented species' range under clinally varying selection. Migration between populations

  17. Predicting genotypes environmental range from genome-environment associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manel, Stéphanie; Andrello, Marco; Henry, Karine; Verdelet, Daphné; Darracq, Aude; Guerin, Pierre-Edouard; Desprez, Bruno; Devaux, Pierre

    2018-05-17

    Genome-environment association methods aim to detect genetic markers associated with environmental variables. The detected associations are usually analysed separately to identify the genomic regions involved in local adaptation. However, a recent study suggests that single-locus associations can be combined and used in a predictive way to estimate environmental variables for new individuals on the basis of their genotypes. Here, we introduce an original approach to predict the environmental range (values and upper and lower limits) of species genotypes from the genetic markers significantly associated with those environmental variables in an independent set of individuals. We illustrate this approach to predict aridity in a database constituted of 950 individuals of wild beets and 299 individuals of cultivated beets genotyped at 14,409 random Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). We detected 66 alleles associated with aridity and used them to calculate the fraction (I) of aridity-associated alleles in each individual. The fraction I correctly predicted the values of aridity in an independent validation set of wild individuals and was then used to predict aridity in the 299 cultivated individuals. Wild individuals had higher median values and a wider range of values of aridity than the cultivated individuals, suggesting that wild individuals have higher ability to resist to stress-aridity conditions and could be used to improve the resistance of cultivated varieties to aridity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  18. Salinity ranges of some southern African fish species occurring in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The recorded salinity ranges of 96 fish species occurring in southern African estuaries are documented. Factors influen- cing the tolerance of fishes to low and high salinity regimes are discussed, with most species tolerant of low rather than high salinity conditions. This is important since most systems are subject to periodic ...

  19. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

    2006-01-01

    Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

  20. Predicted range expansion of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) in forestlands of the southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao-Hsuan Wang; William Grant; Todd Swannack; Jianbang Gan; William Rogers; Tomasz Koralewski; James Miller; John W. Taylor Jr.

    2011-01-01

    We present an integrated approach for predicting future range expansion of an invasive species (Chinese tallow tree) that incorporates statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework.

  1. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-04-29

    Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has

  2. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naia Morueta-Holme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus, which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be

  3. Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solymos, Peter; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Stralberg, Diana; Barker, Nicole K. S.; Bayne, Erin M.

    2018-01-01

    Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.

  4. Predictions For New, Exotic Actinide Species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyykko, P.

    2002-01-01

    The approach. New, simple chemical species can be predicted by studying isoelectronic series using ab initio quantum chemistry. We currently use in most cases relativistic pseudopotentials and handle the electron correlation using density functional theory (DFT) or wave-function-based methods, from MP2 to CCSD(T). Typical codes are Gaussian 98, Turbomole or MolCas. For full four-component Dirac-Fock calculations, the DREAMS code of K. G. Dyall has been utilized. For mapping out the possible new species, complete maps of all possibilities are made, whenever possible, and the new species typically occur along the coast-line of the 'island of stability' of already known species

  5. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  6. Range expansion drives dispersal evolution in an equatorial three-species symbiosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Léotard

    Full Text Available Recurrent climatic oscillations have produced dramatic changes in species distributions. This process has been proposed to be a major evolutionary force, shaping many life history traits of species, and to govern global patterns of biodiversity at different scales. During range expansions selection may favor the evolution of higher dispersal, and symbiotic interactions may be affected. It has been argued that a weakness of climate fluctuation-driven range dynamics at equatorial latitudes has facilitated the persistence there of more specialized species and interactions. However, how much the biology and ecology of species is changed by range dynamics has seldom been investigated, particularly in equatorial regions.We studied a three-species symbiosis endemic to coastal equatorial rainforests in Cameroon, where the impact of range dynamics is supposed to be limited, comprised of two species-specific obligate mutualists--an ant-plant and its protective ant--and a species-specific ant parasite of this mutualism. We combined analyses of within-species genetic diversity and of phenotypic variation in a transect at the southern range limit of this ant-plant system. All three species present congruent genetic signatures of recent gradual southward expansion, a result compatible with available regional paleoclimatic data. As predicted, this expansion has been accompanied by the evolution of more dispersive traits in the two ant species. In contrast, we detected no evidence of change in lifetime reproductive strategy in the tree, nor in its investment in food resources provided to its symbiotic ants.Despite the decreasing investment in protective workers and the increasing investment in dispersing females by both the mutualistic and the parasitic ant species, there was no evidence of destabilization of the symbiosis at the colonization front. To our knowledge, we provide here the first evidence at equatorial latitudes that biological traits associated

  7. Range expansion drives dispersal evolution in an equatorial three-species symbiosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Léotard, Guillaume; Debout, Gabriel; Dalecky, Ambroise; Guillot, Sylvain; Gaume, Laurence; McKey, Doyle; Kjellberg, Finn

    2009-01-01

    Recurrent climatic oscillations have produced dramatic changes in species distributions. This process has been proposed to be a major evolutionary force, shaping many life history traits of species, and to govern global patterns of biodiversity at different scales. During range expansions selection may favor the evolution of higher dispersal, and symbiotic interactions may be affected. It has been argued that a weakness of climate fluctuation-driven range dynamics at equatorial latitudes has facilitated the persistence there of more specialized species and interactions. However, how much the biology and ecology of species is changed by range dynamics has seldom been investigated, particularly in equatorial regions. We studied a three-species symbiosis endemic to coastal equatorial rainforests in Cameroon, where the impact of range dynamics is supposed to be limited, comprised of two species-specific obligate mutualists--an ant-plant and its protective ant--and a species-specific ant parasite of this mutualism. We combined analyses of within-species genetic diversity and of phenotypic variation in a transect at the southern range limit of this ant-plant system. All three species present congruent genetic signatures of recent gradual southward expansion, a result compatible with available regional paleoclimatic data. As predicted, this expansion has been accompanied by the evolution of more dispersive traits in the two ant species. In contrast, we detected no evidence of change in lifetime reproductive strategy in the tree, nor in its investment in food resources provided to its symbiotic ants. Despite the decreasing investment in protective workers and the increasing investment in dispersing females by both the mutualistic and the parasitic ant species, there was no evidence of destabilization of the symbiosis at the colonization front. To our knowledge, we provide here the first evidence at equatorial latitudes that biological traits associated with dispersal are

  8. Quantifying species' range shifts in relation to climate change: a case study of Abies spp. in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Kou

    Full Text Available Predicting species range shifts in response to climatic change is a central aspect of global change studies. An ever growing number of species have been modeled using a variety of species distribution models (SDMs. However, quantitative studies of the characteristics of range shifts are rare, predictions of range changes are hard to interpret, analyze and summarize, and comparisons between the various models are difficult to make when the number of species modeled is large. Maxent was used to model the distribution of 12 Abies spp. in China under current and possible future climate conditions. Two fuzzy set defined indices, range increment index (I and range overlapping index (O, were used to quantify range shifts of the chosen species. Correlation analyses were used to test the relationships between these indices and species distribution characteristics. Our results show that Abies spp. range increments (I were highly correlated with longitude, latitude, and mean roughness of their current distributions. Species overlapping (O was moderately, or not, correlated with these parameters. Neither range increments nor overlapping showed any correlation with species prevalence. These fuzzy sets defined indices provide ideal measures of species range shifts because they are stable and threshold-free. They are reliable indices that allow large numbers of species to be described, modeled, and compared on a variety of taxonomic levels.

  9. Range prediction for electric vehicles; Reichweitenprognose fuer Elektromobile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conradi, Peter [All4IP Technologies GmbH and Co.KG, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    The range of electric vehicles varies strongly in dependency of a number of external factors. To be able to make an exact dynamic prediction of the remaining range during the journey, All4IP Technologies developed a special software that can access the CAN bus. The App, programmed for iOS and Android operating systems considers even the topology of the area. (orig.)

  10. Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

  11. Species climate range influences hydraulic and stomatal traits in Eucalyptus species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, Aimee E; Creek, Danielle; Peters, Jennifer M R; Ellsworth, David S; Choat, Brendan

    2017-07-01

    Plant hydraulic traits influence the capacity of species to grow and survive in water-limited environments, but their comparative study at a common site has been limited. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether selective pressures on species originating in drought-prone environments constrain hydraulic traits among related species grown under common conditions. Leaf tissue water relations, xylem anatomy, stomatal behaviour and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism were measured on six Eucalyptus species growing in a common garden to determine whether these traits were related to current species climate range and to understand linkages between the traits. Hydraulically weighted xylem vessel diameter, leaf turgor loss point, the water potential at stomatal closure and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism were significantly ( P Eucalyptus trees has important implications for the limits of species responses to changing environmental conditions and thus for species survival and distribution into the future, and yields new information for physiological models. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  12. Natural selection constrains neutral diversity across a wide range of species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett-Detig, Russell B; Hartl, Daniel L; Sackton, Timothy B

    2015-04-01

    The neutral theory of molecular evolution predicts that the amount of neutral polymorphisms within a species will increase proportionally with the census population size (Nc). However, this prediction has not been borne out in practice: while the range of Nc spans many orders of magnitude, levels of genetic diversity within species fall in a comparatively narrow range. Although theoretical arguments have invoked the increased efficacy of natural selection in larger populations to explain this discrepancy, few direct empirical tests of this hypothesis have been conducted. In this work, we provide a direct test of this hypothesis using population genomic data from a wide range of taxonomically diverse species. To do this, we relied on the fact that the impact of natural selection on linked neutral diversity depends on the local recombinational environment. In regions of relatively low recombination, selected variants affect more neutral sites through linkage, and the resulting correlation between recombination and polymorphism allows a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of the impact of selection on linked neutral diversity. By comparing whole genome polymorphism data and genetic maps using a coalescent modeling framework, we estimate the degree to which natural selection reduces linked neutral diversity for 40 species of obligately sexual eukaryotes. We then show that the magnitude of the impact of natural selection is positively correlated with Nc, based on body size and species range as proxies for census population size. These results demonstrate that natural selection removes more variation at linked neutral sites in species with large Nc than those with small Nc and provides direct empirical evidence that natural selection constrains levels of neutral genetic diversity across many species. This implies that natural selection may provide an explanation for this longstanding paradox of population genetics.

  13. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  14. Effects of corridors on home range sizes and interpatch movements of three small mammal species.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mabry, Karen, E.; Barrett, Gary, W.

    2002-04-30

    Mabry, K.E., and G.W. Barrett. 2002. Effects of corridors on home range sizes and interpatch movements of three small mammal species. Landscape Ecol. 17:629-636. Corridors are predicted to benefit populations in patchy habitats by promoting movement, which should increase population densities, gene flow, and recolonization of extinct patch populations. However, few investigators have considered use of the total landscape, particularly the possibility of interpatch movement through matrix habitat, by small mammals. This study compares home range sizes of 3 species of small mammals, the cotton mouse, old field mouse and cotton rat between patches with and without corridors. Corridor presence did not have a statistically significant influence on average home range size. Habitat specialization and sex influenced the probability of an individual moving between 2 patches without corridors. The results of this study suggest that small mammals may be more capable of interpatch movement without corridors than is frequently assumed.

  15. Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Panza, G.F.; Peresan, A.

    2001-12-01

    A new scheme for the application of the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8 is proposed. The scheme accounts for the natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates the subjectivity in the positioning of the areas of investigation and provides additional stability of the predictions with respect to the original variant. According to the retroactive testing in Italy and adjacent regions, this improvement is achieved without any significant change of the alarm volume in comparison with the results published so far. (author)

  16. Potential climate change favored expansion of a range limited species, Haematostaphis barteri Hook f.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Koundouonon Moutouama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding impact of climate change on range breadth of rare species can improve the ability to anticipate their decline or expension and take appropriate conservation measures. Haematatostaphis barteri is an agroforestry species of the Sudanian centre of endemism in Africa. We investigeted impact of climate change on range of suitable habitats for this species in Benin,using the Maximum Entropy algorithm under R software. Five environmental variables were used with the regional climate model under the new Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP. Moisture Index of the Moist Quarter and Slope variability had the greatest predictive importance for the range of suitable habitats for H. barteri. Its Potential breadth was found to be currently limited to the Atacora Mountain Chain (AMC and covers 0.51% of national territory. Climate change was projected to favor expansion of suitable habitats for H. barteri by 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These habitats were however mostly out of the local protected areas network. Climate change would extend range of habitats for H. barteri. Observed protection gaps suggest need for integrating this species into formal in situ, on-farm or ex situ conservation schemes.

  17. Climate change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and its importance for patterns of species richness and range size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Arge, Lars Allan; Svenning, J.-C.

    to fully occupy suitable habitat, or when local diversification rates are depressed by local population extinctions and changing selective regimes. Locations with long-term climate instability should therefore show reduced species richness with small-ranged species particularly missing from the community...... these predictions using global data on mammal and amphibian distributions. Consistent with our predictions, richness of small-ranged species of both groups was negatively associated with velocity. Velocity generally explained more variation in richness than did the simple climate anomaly. Climate velocity appears...... to capture an important historical signal on current mammal and amphibian distributions....

  18. A short-range ensemble prediction system for southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Park, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available system for southern Africa R PARK, WA LANDMAN AND F ENGELBRECHT CSIR, PO Box 395, Pretoria, South Africa, 0001 Email: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx@csir.co.za ? www.csir.co.za INTRODUCTION This research has been conducted in order to develop a short-range ensemble... stream_source_info Park_2012.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7211 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Park_2012.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 A short-range ensemble prediction...

  19. Range-Space Predictive Control for Optimal Robot Motion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, Květoslav; Böhm, Josef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2008), s. 1-7 ISSN 1998-0140 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP102/06/P275 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Accurate manipulation * Industrial robotics * Predictive control * Range-space control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/historie/belda-0305644.pdf

  20. Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

    2017-05-01

    In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

  1. Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

    2017-12-01

    The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

  2. Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ayllón

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta living along a temperature gradient at the warmest thermal edge of its range. We developed a carrying capacity model in which maximum population size is limited by physical habitat conditions and regulated through territoriality. We first tested whether population numbers were driven by carrying capacity dynamics and then targeted on establishing (1 the temperature thresholds beyond which population numbers switch from being physical habitat- to temperature-limited; and (2 the rate at which carrying capacity declines with temperature within limiting thermal ranges. Carrying capacity along with emergent density-dependent responses explained up to 76% of spatio-temporal density variability of juveniles and adults but only 50% of young-of-the-year's. By contrast, young-of-the-year trout were highly sensitive to thermal conditions, their performance declining with temperature at a higher rate than older life stages, and disruptions being triggered at lower temperature thresholds. Results suggest that limiting temperature effects were progressively stronger with increasing anthropogenic disturbance. There was however a critical threshold, matching the incipient thermal limit for survival, beyond which realized density was always below potential numbers irrespective of disturbance intensity. We additionally found a lower threshold, matching the thermal limit for feeding, beyond which even unaltered populations declined. We predict that most of our study

  3. Plant-soil interactions in the expansion and native range of a poleward shifting plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grunsven, van R.H.A.; Putten, van der W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    Climate warming causes range shifts of many species toward higher latitudes and altitudes. However, range shifts of host species do not necessarily proceed at the same rates as those of their enemies and symbionts. Here, we examined how a range shifting plant species performs in soil from its

  4. Plant–soil interactions in the expansion and native range of a poleward shifting plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Grunsven, R.H.A.; Van der Putten, W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    Climate warming causes range shifts of many species toward higher latitudes and altitudes. However, range shifts of host species do not necessarily proceed at the same rates as those of their enemies and symbionts. Here, we examined how a range shifting plant species performs in soil from its

  5. Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Signe; Ricklefs, Robert E.; Skov, Flemming; Bladt, Jesper; Tackenberg, Oliver; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2011-01-01

    The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role. PMID:21543356

  6. Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

    2018-06-01

    For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  8. Explaining life history variation in a changing climate across a species' range

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neuheimer, Anna B.; MacKenzie, Brian R.

    2014-01-01

    Timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting population production. Explaining and predicting species' dynamics necessitates disentangling the intrinsic (genotypic) and extrinsic (climatic) factors controlling reproductive timing. Here we explore temporal and spatial...... changes in spawning time for 21 populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species' range (40 degrees to 80 degrees N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree-days, DD). First, we estimate spawning DD among...... years (within populations) to show how recent changes in spawning time can be explained by local changes in temperature. Second, we employ spawning DD to identify temperature-independent trends in spawning time among populations that are consistent with parallel adaptive evolution and the evolutionary...

  9. Modeling the potential area of occupancy at fine resolution may reduce uncertainty in species range estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja; Draper, David; Nogues, David Bravo

    2012-01-01

    and maximum entropy modeling to assess whether different sampling (expert versus systematic surveys) may affect AOO estimates based on habitat suitability maps, and the differences between such measurements and traditional coarse-grid methods. Fine-scale models performed robustly and were not influenced...... by survey protocols, providing similar habitat suitability outputs with high spatial agreement. Model-based estimates of potential AOO were significantly smaller than AOO measures obtained from coarse-scale grids, even if the first were obtained from conservative thresholds based on the Minimal Predicted...... permit comparable measures among species. We conclude that estimates of AOO based on fine-resolution distribution models are more robust tools for risk assessment than traditional systems, allowing a better understanding of species ranges at habitat level....

  10. High-density native-range species affects the invasive plant Chromolaena odorata more strongly than species from its invasive range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yulong; Liao, Zhiyong

    2017-11-22

    Invasive plant species often form dense mono-dominant stands in areas they have invaded, while having only sparse distribution in their native ranges, and the reasons behind this phenomenon are a key point of research in invasive species biology. Differences in species composition between native and invasive ranges may contribute to the difference in distribution status. In this study, we found that the high-density condition had a more negative effect on C. odorata than the low-density condition when co-grown with neighbor plants from its native range in Mexico, while this pattern was not in evidence when it was grown with neighbors from its invasive range in China. Different competitive ability and coevolutionary history with C. odorata between native-range neighbors and invasive-range neighbors may lead to the inconsistent patterns.

  11. A range-based predictive localization algorithm for WSID networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuan; Chen, Junjie; Li, Gang

    2017-11-01

    Most studies on localization algorithms are conducted on the sensor networks with densely distributed nodes. However, the non-localizable problems are prone to occur in the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. To solve this problem, a range-based predictive localization algorithm (RPLA) is proposed in this paper for the wireless sensor networks syncretizing the RFID (WSID) networks. The Gaussian mixture model is established to predict the trajectory of a mobile target. Then, the received signal strength indication is used to reduce the residence area of the target location based on the approximate point-in-triangulation test algorithm. In addition, collaborative localization schemes are introduced to locate the target in the non-localizable situations. Simulation results verify that the RPLA achieves accurate localization for the network with sparsely distributed sensor nodes. The localization accuracy of the RPLA is 48.7% higher than that of the APIT algorithm, 16.8% higher than that of the single Gaussian model-based algorithm and 10.5% higher than that of the Kalman filtering-based algorithm.

  12. Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

    2014-12-01

    The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

  13. New records and range extensions of several species of native bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) from Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currently published literature includes 184 species of bees that occur within the state of Mississippi. The geographic ranges of seven additional species are extended into the state of Mississippi: Andrena (Melandrena) obscuripennis Smith, 1853, Anthemurgus passiflorae Robertson, 1902, Dieunomia bol...

  14. Mechanisms Controlling Species Responses to Climate Change: Thermal Tolerances and Shifting Range Limits. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, R. F.; Bykova, O.; Coiner, H.

    2010-12-01

    One of the main effects of anthropogenic climate change will be widespread shifts in species distribution, with the common assumption that they will migrate to higher elevation and latitude. While this assumption is supported by migration patterns following climate warming in the past 20,000 years, it has not been rigorously evaluated in terms of physiological mechanism, despite the implication that migration in response to climate warming is controlled by some form of thermal adaptation. We have been evaluating the degree to which species range limits are controlled by physiological patterns of thermal tolerance in bioinvaders of North America. Bioinvaders presumably have few biotic controls over their distribution and thus are more likely to fully exploit their thermal niche. In cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), the minimum lethal temperature in winter is -32C, which corresponds to the mean winter minimum temperature at its northern range limit. In red brome (Bromus rubens), the minimum lethal temperature is also near -32C, which is well below the minimum winter temperature near -20C that corresponds to its northern distribution limit. In kudzu (Pueraria lobata), the minimum lethal temperature is near -20C, which corresponds to the midwinter minimum at its northern distribution limit; however, overwintering kudzu tissues are insulated by soil and snow cover, and thus do not experience lethal temperatures at kudzu's northern range limit. These results demonstrate that some invasive species can exploit the potential range defined by their low temperature tolerance and thus can be predicted by mechanistic models to migrate to higher latitudes with moderation of winter cold. The distribution of other invaders such as kudzu and red brome are not controlled by tolerance of midwinter cold. Developing mechanistic models of their distributions, and how these might change with climate warming, will require extensive physiological study.

  15. Logistic regression accuracy across different spatial and temporal scales for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolyn B. Meyer; Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

    2004-01-01

    The scale at which habitat variables are measured affects the accuracy of resource selection functions in predicting animal use of sites. We used logistic regression models for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet, (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in a large region in California to address how much changing the spatial or temporal scale of...

  16. Mapping plant species ranges in the Hawaiian Islands: developing a methodology and associated GIS layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Jonathan P.; Jacobi, James D.; Gon, Samuel M.; Matsuwaki, Dwight; Mehrhoff, Loyal; Wagner, Warren; Lucas, Matthew; Rowe, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    This report documents a methodology for projecting the geographic ranges of plant species in the Hawaiian Islands. The methodology consists primarily of the creation of several geographic information system (GIS) data layers depicting attributes related to the geographic ranges of plant species. The most important spatial-data layer generated here is an objectively defined classification of climate as it pertains to the distribution of plant species. By examining previous zonal-vegetation classifications in light of spatially detailed climate data, broad zones of climate relevant to contemporary concepts of vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands can be explicitly defined. Other spatial-data layers presented here include the following: substrate age, as large areas of the island of Hawai'i, in particular, are covered by very young lava flows inimical to the growth of many plant species; biogeographic regions of the larger islands that are composites of multiple volcanoes, as many of their species are restricted to a given topographically isolated mountain or a specified group of them; and human impact, which can reduce the range of many species relative to where they formerly were found. Other factors influencing the geographic ranges of species that are discussed here but not developed further, owing to limitations in rendering them spatially, include topography, soils, and disturbance. A method is described for analyzing these layers in a GIS, in conjunction with a database of species distributions, to project the ranges of plant species, which include both the potential range prior to human disturbance and the projected present range. Examples of range maps for several species are given as case studies that demonstrate different spatial characteristics of range. Several potential applications of species-range maps are discussed, including facilitating field surveys, informing restoration efforts, studying range size and rarity, studying biodiversity, managing

  17. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G Froese

    Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  18. High Resolution Habitat Suitability Modelling For Restricted-Range Hawaiian Alpine Arthropod Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, N. M.

    2016-12-01

    Mapping potentially suitable habitat is critical for effective species conservation and management but can be challenging in areas exhibiting complex heterogeneity. An approach that combines non-intrusive spatial data collection techniques and field data can lead to a better understanding of landscapes and species distributions. Nysius wekiuicola, commonly known as the wēkiu bug, is the most studied arthropod species endemic to the Maunakea summit in Hawai`i, yet details about its geographic distribution and habitat use remain poorly understood. To predict the geographic distribution of N. wekiuicola, MaxEnt habitat suitability models were generated from a diverse set of input variables, including fifteen years of species occurrence data, high resolution digital elevation models, surface mineralogy maps derived from hyperspectral remote sensing, and climate data. Model results indicate that elevation (78.2 percent), and the presence of nanocrystalline hematite surface minerals (13.7 percent) had the highest influence, with lesser contributions from aspect, slope, and other surface mineral classes. Climatic variables were not included in the final analysis due to auto-correlation and coarse spatial resolution. Biotic factors relating to predation and competition also likely dictate wēkiu bug capture patterns and influence our results. The wēkiu bug range and habitat suitability models generated as a result of this study will be directly incorporated into management and restoration goals for the summit region and can also be adapted for other arthropod species present, leading to a more holistic understanding of metacommunity dynamics. Key words: Microhabitat, Structure from Motion, Lidar, MaxEnt, Habitat Suitability

  19. Are range-size distributions consistent with species-level heritability?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Gotelli, Nicholas; Rahbek, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has...... been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output...

  20. Leapfrogging of tree species provenances? Interaction of microclimate and genetics on upward shifts in tree species' range limits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, K.; Castanha, C.; Germino, M. J.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2011-12-01

    The elevation limit of tree growth (alpine treeline) is considered to be constrained by environmental (i.e., thermal) and genetic (i.e., inability to adapt to climatic conditions) limitations to growth. Warming conditions due to climate change are predicted to cause upward shifts in the elevation of alpine treelines, through relief of cold-induced physiological limitations on seedling recruitment beyond current treeline boundaries. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone at Niwot Ridge, CO. We compared differences in microclimate and seedling ecophysiology among sites and between provenances. During the first summer of growth, frequently cloudy skies resulted in similar solar radiation incidence and air and soil temperatures among sites, despite nearly a 500 m-span in elevation across all sites. Preliminary findings suggest that survival of seedlings was similar between the lowest and highest elevations, with greater survival of LO (60%) compared to HI (40%) seedlings at each of these sites. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration), and conductance increased more than 2X with elevation for both provenances, and were 35-77% greater in LO seedlings compared to HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. However, in a common-garden study at low elevation, we observed no differences in carbon or water relations between two naturally-germinated mitochondrial haplotypes of P. flexilis (of narrow and wide-ranging distributions). We did observe water-related thresholds on seedling carbon balance and survival that occurred when soil volumetric water content dropped below 10% and seedling water

  1. Moving Species Redundancy Toward a More Predictive Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human activities are driving rapid changes in species diversity in a wide range of habitats globally. These changes in species diversity raise questions about the ability of altered systems to continue to offer valuable ecosystem services. Maintenance of ecosystem services unde...

  2. Species-specific markers for the differential diagnosis of Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli and polymorphisms detection in Trypanosoma rangeli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Keila Adriana Magalhães; Fajardo, Emanuella Francisco; Baptista, Rodrigo P; Macedo, Andrea Mara; Lages-Silva, Eliane; Ramírez, Luis Eduardo; Pedrosa, André Luiz

    2014-06-01

    Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli are kinetoplastid parasites which are able to infect humans in Central and South America. Misdiagnosis between these trypanosomes can be avoided by targeting barcoding sequences or genes of each organism. This work aims to analyze the feasibility of using species-specific markers for identification of intraspecific polymorphisms and as target for diagnostic methods by PCR. Accordingly, primers which are able to specifically detect T. cruzi or T. rangeli genomic DNA were characterized. The use of intergenic regions, generally divergent in the trypanosomatids, and the serine carboxypeptidase gene were successful. Using T. rangeli genomic sequences for the identification of group-specific polymorphisms and a polymorphic AT(n) dinucleotide repeat permitted the classification of the strains into two groups, which are entirely coincident with T. rangeli main lineages, KP1 (+) and KP1 (-), previously determined by kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) characterization. The sequences analyzed totalize 622 bp (382 bp represent a hypothetical protein sequence, and 240 bp represent an anonymous sequence), and of these, 581 (93.3%) are conserved sites and 41 bp (6.7%) are polymorphic, with 9 transitions (21.9%), 2 transversions (4.9%), and 30 (73.2%) insertion/deletion events. Taken together, the species-specific markers analyzed may be useful for the development of new strategies for the accurate diagnosis of infections. Furthermore, the identification of T. rangeli polymorphisms has a direct impact in the understanding of the population structure of this parasite.

  3. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  4. Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smetanová, S.; Bláha, L.; Liess, M.; Schäfer, R.B.; Beketov, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEAR pesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2–1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. - Highlights: • We validated the statistical model Species Sensitivity Distribution with field data. • Good correlation was found between the model predictions and observed effects. • But, the generally accepted threshold msPAF 0.05 severely underestimated the effects. - Comparison of the SSD-based prediction with the field data evaluated with the SPEAR pesticides index shows that SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 severely underestimates the effects observed in the field

  5. Predicting aquatic macrophyte occurrence in soft-water oligotrophic lakes (Pyrenees mountain range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Pulido

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Distribution of aquatic macrophytes in lakes is related to geographical, morphological, catchment and water chemistry variables as well as human impacts, which modify the original environment. Here, we aim at building statistical models to establish the ecological niches of 11 aquatic macrophytes (10 different phanerogams and the genus Nitella from oligotrophic soft-water lakes and infer their ecological requirements and environmental constraints at the southernmost limit of their distribution. Macrophyte occurrence and environmental variables were obtained from 86 non-exploited oligotrophic soft-water lakes from the Pyrenees (Southern Europe; 42º50´N, 1º00´E; macrophytes inhabited 55 of these lakes. Optimum ranges and macrophyte occurrence were predicted in relation to 18 geographical, morphological, catchment and water chemistry variables using univariate and multivariate logistic models. Lakes at low altitude, in vegetated catchments and with low water concentration of NO3- and SO4-2, were the most suitable to host macrophytes. In general, individual species of aquatic macrophytes showed clear patterns of segregation along conductivity and pH gradients, although the specific combination of variables selected in the best models explaining their occurrence differed among species.  Based on the species response to pH and conductivity, we found Isoetes lacustris have its optimum in waters with low conductivity and pH (i.e. negative monotonic response. In contrast, Callitriche palustris, Ranunculus aquatilis, Subularia aquatica, Nitella spp., and Myriophyllum alterniflorum showed an optimum at intermediate values (i.e. unimodal response, whereas Potamogeton berchtoldii, Potamogeton alpinus, and Ranunculus trichophyllus as species had their optimum at relatively high water pH and conductivity (i.e. positive monotonic response. This pattern has been observed in other regions for the same species, although with different optima and tolerance

  6. Species Entropies in the Kinetic Range of Collisionless Plasma Turbulence: Particle-in-cell Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary, S. Peter; Zhao, Yinjian; Hughes, R. Scott; Wang, Joseph; Parashar, Tulasi N.

    2018-06-01

    Three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations of the forward cascade of decaying turbulence in the relatively short-wavelength kinetic range have been carried out as initial-value problems on collisionless, homogeneous, magnetized electron-ion plasma models. The simulations have addressed both whistler turbulence at β i = β e = 0.25 and kinetic Alfvén turbulence at β i = β e = 0.50, computing the species energy dissipation rates as well as the increase of the Boltzmann entropies for both ions and electrons as functions of the initial dimensionless fluctuating magnetic field energy density ε o in the range 0 ≤ ε o ≤ 0.50. This study shows that electron and ion entropies display similar rates of increase and that all four entropy rates increase approximately as ε o , consistent with the assumption that the quasilinear premise is valid for the initial conditions assumed for these simulations. The simulations further predict that the time rates of ion entropy increase should be substantially greater for kinetic Alfvén turbulence than for whistler turbulence.

  7. High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Jesper; Martín González, Ana M.; Maruyama, Pietro K.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographicall...

  8. Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranda C Jones

    Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.

  9. Predicting weed problems in maize cropping by species distribution modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bürger, Jana

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Increasing maize cultivation and changed cropping practices promote the selection of typical maize weeds that may also profit strongly from climate change. Predicting potential weed problems is of high interest for plant production. Within the project KLIFF, experiments were combined with species distribution modelling for this task in the region of Lower Saxony, Germany. For our study, we modelled ecological and damage niches of nine weed species that are significant and wide spread in maize cropping in a number of European countries. Species distribution models describe the ecological niche of a species, these are the environmental conditions under which a species can maintain a vital population. It is also possible to estimate a damage niche, i.e. the conditions under which a species causes damage in agricultural crops. For this, we combined occurrence data of European national data bases with high resolution climate, soil and land use data. Models were also projected to simulated climate conditions for the time horizon 2070 - 2100 in order to estimate climate change effects. Modelling results indicate favourable conditions for typical maize weed occurrence virtually all over the study region, but only a few species are important in maize cropping. This is in good accordance with the findings of an earlier maize weed monitoring. Reaction to changing climate conditions is species-specific, for some species neutral (E. crus-galli, other species may gain (Polygonum persicaria or loose (Viola arvensis large areas of suitable habitats. All species with damage potential under present conditions will remain important in maize cropping, some more species will gain regional importance (Calystegia sepium, Setara viridis.

  10. Predicting Long-Range Traversability from Short-Range Stereo-Derived Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turmon, Michael; Tang, Benyang; Howard, Andrew; Brjaracharya, Max

    2010-01-01

    Based only on its appearance in imagery, this program uses close-range 3D terrain analysis to produce training data sufficient to estimate the traversability of terrain beyond 3D sensing range. This approach is called learning from stereo (LFS). In effect, the software transfers knowledge from middle distances, where 3D geometry provides training cues, into the far field where only appearance is available. This is a viable approach because the same obstacle classes, and sometimes the same obstacles, are typically present in the mid-field and the farfield. Learning thus extends the effective look-ahead distance of the sensors.

  11. Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad

    1996-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...

  12. Comparison of Ablation Predictions for Carbonaceous Materials Using CEA and JANAF-Based Species Thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milos, Frank S.

    2011-01-01

    In most previous work at NASA Ames Research Center, ablation predictions for carbonaceous materials were obtained using a species thermodynamics database developed by Aerotherm Corporation. This database is derived mostly from the JANAF thermochemical tables. However, the CEA thermodynamics database, also used by NASA, is considered more up to date. In this work, the FIAT code was modified to use CEA-based curve fits for species thermodynamics, then analyses using both the JANAF and CEA thermodynamics were performed for carbon and carbon phenolic materials over a range of test conditions. The ablation predictions are comparable at lower heat fluxes where the dominant mechanism is carbon oxidation. However, the predictions begin to diverge in the sublimation regime, with the CEA model predicting lower recession. The disagreement is more significant for carbon phenolic than for carbon, and this difference is attributed to hydrocarbon species that may contribute to the ablation rate.

  13. Extensive range overlap between heliconiine sister species: evidence for sympatric speciation in butterflies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosser, Neil; Kozak, Krzysztof M; Phillimore, Albert B; Mallet, James

    2015-06-30

    Sympatric speciation is today generally viewed as plausible, and some well-supported examples exist, but its relative contribution to biodiversity remains to be established. We here quantify geographic overlap of sister species of heliconiine butterflies, and use age-range correlations and spatial simulations of the geography of speciation to infer the frequency of sympatric speciation. We also test whether shifts in mimetic wing colour pattern, host plant use and climate niche play a role in speciation, and whether such shifts are associated with sympatry. Approximately a third of all heliconiine sister species pairs exhibit near complete range overlap, and analyses of the observed patterns of range overlap suggest that sympatric speciation contributes 32%-95% of speciation events. Müllerian mimicry colour patterns and host plant choice are highly labile traits that seem to be associated with speciation, but we find no association between shifts in these traits and range overlap. In contrast, climatic niches of sister species are more conserved. Unlike birds and mammals, sister species of heliconiines are often sympatric and our inferences using the most recent comparative methods suggest that sympatric speciation is common. However, if sister species spread rapidly into sympatry (e.g. due to their similar climatic niches), then assumptions underlying our methods would be violated. Furthermore, although we find some evidence for the role of ecology in speciation, ecological shifts did not show the associations with range overlap expected under sympatric speciation. We delimit species of heliconiines in three different ways, based on "strict and " "relaxed" biological species concepts (BSC), as well as on a surrogate for the widely-used "diagnostic" version of the phylogenetic species concept (PSC). We show that one reason why more sympatric speciation is inferred in heliconiines than in birds may be due to a different culture of species delimitation in the two

  14. A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

    2014-01-01

    It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

  15. A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Kou

    Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

  16. Investigating Effects of Participatory Range Management Plans on Species Diversity in Semirum-Isfahan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Borhani

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate the effects of range management plans on species diversity, richness and evenness in Semirum rangelands, 52 sites (28 with treated plan and 24 without treated plan were selected. The non-parametric indices for species richness (Margalof, Menhinick, Jacknife and counting method and species diversity (Simpson, Camargo, Smith and Wilson and modified Nee were compared in two management plans. The mean comparisons were made by independent T Student Test and Mann-Witheny U Test, and correlation was determined between diversity indices and vegetation parameters. Based on the results there was no significant difference between the two management systems regarding environmental features, while the implementation of range management plans caused significant reduction of stocking rate. Among the studied indices, evenness of species in sites without treated plan was significantly more than the sites with treated plan. The correlation matrix showed that there was a significant positive correlation between species richness and vegetation cover, production of perennial plans, and the rangeland condition and trend, while evenness showed significant negative correlation with these indices. Generally, implementation of range management plans has considerable effect on increasing climax species, dominance of Bromus tomentellus and it causes improvement of rangeland condition and reduction of evenness. This behavior could be explained by the balance between species competition and grazing pressure. Further, succession process of the studied communities demonstrates domination of some desirable species, high production and less diversity.

  17. Species are not most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or climatic niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, Tad; Decker, Robin R; Hastings, Alan

    2017-12-01

    The pervasive idea that species should be most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or centre of their climatic niche is a key assumption in many existing ecological hypotheses and has been declared a general macroecological rule. However, empirical support for decreasing population abundance with increasing distance from geographic range or climatic niche centre (distance-abundance relationships) remains fairly weak. We examine over 1400 bird, mammal, fish and tree species to provide a thorough test of distance-abundance relationships, and their associations with species traits and phylogenetic relationships. We failed to detect consistent distance-abundance relationships, and found no association between distance-abundance slope and species traits or phylogenetic relatedness. Together, our analyses suggest that distance-abundance relationships may be rare, difficult to detect, or are an oversimplification of the complex biogeographical forces that determine species spatial abundance patterns. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  18. Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beatty, Gemma, E.; Philipp, Marianne; Provan, Jim

    2010-01-01

    hybridization may lead to the extinction of peripheral populations of P. minor where the two species grow sympatrically. Extinction could occur as a result of genetic assimilation where F1s are fertile, or via the removal of unidirectionally pollinated sterile F1s, or by a combination of these processes......Aim Introgressive hybridization between a locally rare species and a more abundant congener can drive population extinction via genetic assimilation, or the replacement of the rare species gene pool with that of the common species. To date, however, few studies have assessed the effects...... of such processes at the limits of species' distribution ranges. In this study, we have examined the potential for hybridization between range-edge populations of the wintergreen Pyrola minor and sympatric populations of Pyrola grandiflora. Location Qeqertarsuaq, Greenland and Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Methods...

  19. New records and range extensions of several species of native bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) from Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, Terry; Ikerd, Harold W; Orr, Michael Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background The native bee fauna of Mississippi, USA has been historically poorly sampled, but is of particular relevance to determine range limits for species that occur in the southern United States. Currently published literature includes 184 species of bees that occur within the state of Mississippi. Additions to the list of native bees known for Mississippi are reported with notes on range, ecology and resources for identification. New information The geographic ranges of seven additional species are extended into the state of Mississippi: Andrena (Melandrena) obscuripennis Smith, 1853, Anthemurgus passiflorae Robertson, 1902, Dieunomia bolliana (Cockerell 1910), Diadasia (Diadasia) enavata (Cresson 1872), Peponapis crassidentata (Cockerell 1949), Triepeolus subnitens Cockerell and Timberlake, 1929 and Brachynomada nimia (Snelling and Rozen 1987). These records raise the total number of published species known from the state to 191. Anthemurgus and Brachynomada are also genera new to Mississippi. PMID:29853776

  20. SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts...

  1. Germination responses of an invasive species in native and non-native ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose L. Hierro; Ozkan Eren; Liana Khetsuriani; Alecu Diaconu; Katalin Torok; Daniel Montesinos; Krikor Andonian; David Kikodze; Levan Janoian; Diego Villarreal; Maria Estanga-Mollica; Ragan M. Callaway

    2009-01-01

    Studying germination in the native and non-native range of a species can provide unique insights into processes of range expansion and adaptation; however, traits related to germination have rarely been compared between native and nonnative populations. In a series of common garden experiments, we explored whether differences in the seasonality of precipitation,...

  2. Habitat area and climate stability determine geographical variation in plant species range sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Enquist, Brian J.; McGill, Brian J.

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85,000 ...

  3. Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2012-06-01

    Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

  4. Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

    2017-06-01

    Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K

    2007-01-01

    the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients....... Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured...

  6. Forecasting the poleward range expansion of an intertidal species driven by climate alterations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Xavier

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate distributional models can be used to reliably predict the response of organisms to climatic changes. Though such models have been extensively applied to terrestrial organisms, they have hardly ever been applied to the marine environment. Recent changes in the distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica (L. were previously modelled with Classification and Regression Tree (CART and the results revealed that increases in temperature were the major driver of those changes. However, the accuracy scores during the validation of the model were unsatisfactory, preventing its use for forecasting purposes. To fulfil this objective, in the present study a more robust method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, was employed to produce a model suited to forecasting changes in the distribution of P. rustica. Results confirmed that the ANN model behaved better than the CART, and that it could be used for forecasting future distributional scenarios. The model forecasts that by the 2020s P. rustica is likely to expand its range at least 1000 km northwards. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the dispersal limitations of this species, but if such an expansion took place, major changes in the colonized ecosystems are expected due to the key role of limpets in intertidal communities.

  7. Evolutionary patterns of range size, abundance and species richness in Amazonian angiosperm trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Dexter

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Amazonian tree species vary enormously in their total abundance and range size, while Amazonian tree genera vary greatly in species richness. The drivers of this variation are not well understood. Here, we construct a phylogenetic hypothesis that represents half of Amazonian tree genera in order to contribute to explaining the variation. We find several clear, broad-scale patterns. Firstly, there is significant phylogenetic signal for all three characteristics; closely related genera tend to have similar numbers of species and similar mean range size and abundance. Additionally, the species richness of genera shows a significant, negative relationship with the mean range size and abundance of their constituent species. Our results suggest that phylogenetically correlated intrinsic factors, namely traits of the genera themselves, shape among lineage variation in range size, abundance and species richness. We postulate that tree stature may be one particularly relevant trait. However, other traits may also be relevant, and our study reinforces the need for ambitious compilations of trait data for Amazonian trees. In the meantime, our study shows how large-scale phylogenies can help to elucidate, and contribute to explaining, macroecological and macroevolutionary patterns in hyperdiverse, yet poorly understood regions like the Amazon Basin.

  8. Sexual selection predicts species richness across the animal kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicke, Tim; Ritchie, Michael G; Morrow, Edward H; Marie-Orleach, Lucas

    2018-05-16

    Our improving knowledge of the animal tree of life consistently demonstrates that some taxa diversify more rapidly than others, but what contributes to this variation remains poorly understood. An influential hypothesis proposes that selection arising from competition for mating partners plays a key role in promoting speciation. However, empirical evidence showing a link between proxies of this sexual selection and species richness is equivocal. Here, we collected standardized metrics of sexual selection for a broad range of animal taxa, and found that taxonomic families characterized by stronger sexual selection on males show relatively higher species richness. Thus, our data support the hypothesis that sexual selection elevates species richness. This could occur either by promoting speciation and/or by protecting species against extinction. © 2018 The Author(s).

  9. Drought stress limits the geographic ranges of two tree species via different physiological mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, Leander D L; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

    2016-03-01

    Range shifts are among the most ubiquitous ecological responses to anthropogenic climate change and have large consequences for ecosystems. Unfortunately, the ecophysiological forces that constrain range boundaries are poorly understood, making it difficult to mechanistically project range shifts. To explore the physiological mechanisms by which drought stress controls dry range boundaries in trees, we quantified elevational variation in drought tolerance and in drought avoidance-related functional traits of a widespread gymnosperm (ponderosa pine - Pinus ponderosa) and angiosperm (trembling aspen - Populus tremuloides) tree species in the southwestern USA. Specifically, we quantified tree-to-tree variation in growth, water stress (predawn and midday xylem tension), drought avoidance traits (branch conductivity, leaf/needle size, tree height, leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio), and drought tolerance traits (xylem resistance to embolism, hydraulic safety margin, wood density) at the range margins and range center of each species. Although water stress increased and growth declined strongly at lower range margins of both species, ponderosa pine and aspen showed contrasting patterns of clinal trait variation. Trembling aspen increased its drought tolerance at its dry range edge by growing stronger but more carbon dense branch and leaf tissues, implying an increased cost of growth at its range boundary. By contrast, ponderosa pine showed little elevational variation in drought-related traits but avoided drought stress at low elevations by limiting transpiration through stomatal closure, such that its dry range boundary is associated with limited carbon assimilation even in average climatic conditions. Thus, the same climatic factor (drought) may drive range boundaries through different physiological mechanisms - a result that has important implications for process-based modeling approaches to tree biogeography. Further, we show that comparing intraspecific patterns of

  10. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Putten, Wim H; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E

    2010-07-12

    Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

  11. Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pincheira-Donoso

    Full Text Available Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses, such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.

  12. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

  13. Multi-scale approach for predicting fish species distributions across coral reef seascapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon J Pittman

    Full Text Available Two of the major limitations to effective management of coral reef ecosystems are a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and a paucity of data on the interacting environmental variables that drive distributional patterns. Advances in marine remote sensing, together with the novel integration of landscape ecology and advanced niche modelling techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to reliably model and map marine species distributions across many kilometres of coral reef ecosystems. We developed a multi-scale approach using three-dimensional seafloor morphology and across-shelf location to predict spatial distributions for five common Caribbean fish species. Seascape topography was quantified from high resolution bathymetry at five spatial scales (5-300 m radii surrounding fish survey sites. Model performance and map accuracy was assessed for two high performing machine-learning algorithms: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT and Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt. The three most important predictors were geographical location across the shelf, followed by a measure of topographic complexity. Predictor contribution differed among species, yet rarely changed across spatial scales. BRT provided 'outstanding' model predictions (AUC = >0.9 for three of five fish species. MaxEnt provided 'outstanding' model predictions for two of five species, with the remaining three models considered 'excellent' (AUC = 0.8-0.9. In contrast, MaxEnt spatial predictions were markedly more accurate (92% map accuracy than BRT (68% map accuracy. We demonstrate that reliable spatial predictions for a range of key fish species can be achieved by modelling the interaction between the geographical location across the shelf and the topographic heterogeneity of seafloor structure. This multi-scale, analytic approach is an important new cost-effective tool to accurately delineate essential fish habitat and support

  14. Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

  15. Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Murray, Nicholas J

    2018-04-01

    Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range-size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red-list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species' extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale-sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1-1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer-scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid-measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape-scale threats to species and ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Diversification Rates and the Evolution of Species Range Size Frequency Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Castiglione

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The geographic range sizes frequency distribution (RFD within clades is typically right-skewed with untransformed data, and bell-shaped or slightly left-skewed under the log-transformation. This means that most species within clades occupy diminutive ranges, whereas just a few species are truly widespread. A number of ecological and evolutionary explanations have been proposed to account for this pattern. Among the latter, much attention has been given to the issue of how extinction and speciation probabilities influence RFD. Numerous accounts now convincingly demonstrate that extinction rate decreases with range size, both in living and extinct taxa. The relationship between range size and speciation rate, though, is much less obvious, with either small or large ranged species being proposed to originate more daughter taxa. Herein, we used a large fossil database including 21 animal clades and more than 80,000 fossil occurrences distributed over more than 400 million years of marine metazoans (exclusive of vertebrates evolution, to test the relationship between extinction rate, speciation rate, and range size. As expected, we found that extinction rate almost linearly decreases with range size. In contrast, speciation rate peaks at the large (but not the largest end of the range size spectrum. This is consistent with the peripheral isolation mode of allopatric speciation being the main mechanism of species origination. The huge variation in phylogeny, fossilization potential, time of fossilization, and the overarching effect of mass extinctions suggest caution must be posed at generalizing our results, as individual clades may deviate significantly from the general pattern.

  17. Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matías, Luis; Jump, Alistair S

    2015-02-01

    Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Risto K Heikkinen

    Full Text Available Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina and one generalist (Issoria lathonia. Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity, with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

  19. Incorporating latitudinal and central–marginal trends in assessing genetic variation across species ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo

    2012-01-01

    The genetic variation across a species’ range is an important factor in speciation and conservation, yet searching for general patterns and underlying causes remains challenging. While the majority of comparisons between central and marginal populations have revealed a general central–marginal (C-M) decline in genetic diversity, others show no clear pattern. Similarly...

  20. Determination of dose ranges of gamma rays to induce specific changes in three ornamental species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez J, J.

    2011-11-01

    In order to confirming the possibility of to settle a dose range that takes place directly and not at random, a specific effect independently of the species that is were produced several similar organisms to three ornamental species took place via meristems cultivation: Petunia hybrid, Impatiens walleriana and Sprekelia formosissima, same that were irradiated in an irradiator Gamma cell 220, to different dose: 0, 3.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5 and 20 Gy. Later on, of the plants treated via in vitro the subsequent generations were obtained until the M 4 . To determine the DL 50 and the possible good doses, the survival parameters, development, morphogenesis and height were evaluated during 8 weeks, interpreting based on them, the possible physiologic and genetic alterations induced by the radiation. The established DL 50 were: 7.5 Gy (Petunia), 19.0 Gy (Impatiens) and 12.0 Gy (Sprekelia). Based on the DL 50 of each species, a range of coincident dose settled down that produces a similar effect in the three species: a range of DL 23 to the DL 50 induces and alteration in the cytokinins production affecting directly in the leaves number, buds and plants taken place by meristem, also a range of DL 32 - DL 50 impacts in the auxins production altering to the radicule system. However, when being superimposed the dose is considered that the investigation should continue. (Author)

  1. Increased genetic divergence between two closely related fir species in areas of range overlap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jing; Abbott, Richard J; Ingvarsson, Pär K; Liu, Jianquan

    2014-01-01

    Because of introgressive hybridization, closely related species can be more similar to each other in areas of range overlap (parapatry or sympatry) than in areas where they are geographically isolated from each other (allopatry). Here, we report the reverse situation based on nuclear genetic divergence between two fir species, Abies chensiensis and Abies fargesii, in China, at sites where they are parapatric relative to where they are allopatric. We examined genetic divergence across 126 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers in a set of 172 individuals sampled from both allopatric and parapatric populations of the two species. Our analyses demonstrated that AFLP divergence was much greater between the species when comparisons were made between parapatric populations than between allopatric populations. We suggest that selection in parapatry may have largely contributed to this increased divergence. PMID:24772279

  2. Prediction of failures in linear systems with the use of tolerance ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadzhiev, Ch.M.

    1993-01-01

    The problem of predicting the technical state of an object can be stated in a general case as that of predicting potential failures on the basis of a quantitative evaluation of the predicted parameters in relation to the set of tolerances on these parameters. The main stages in the prediction are collecting and preparing source data on the prehistory of the predicted phenomenon, forming a mathematical model of this phenomenon, working out the algorithm for the prediction, and adopting a solution from the prediction results. The final two stages of prediction are considered in this article. The prediction algorithm is proposed based on construction of the tolerance range for the signal of error between output coordinates of the system and its mathematical model. A solution regarding possible occurrence of failure in the system is formulated as a result of comparison of the tolerance range and the found confidence interval. 5 refs

  3. Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

    2017-01-01

    Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...

  4. Factors affecting seasonal habitat use, and predicted range of two tropical deer in Indonesian rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Dede Aulia; Gonzalez, Georges; Haryono, Mohammad; Muhtarom, Aom; Firdaus, Asep Yayus; Aulagnier, Stéphane

    2017-07-01

    There is an urgent recognized need for conservation of tropical forest deer. In order to identify some environmental factors affecting conservation, we analyzed the seasonal habitat use of two Indonesian deer species, Axis kuhlii in Bawean Island and Muntiacus muntjak in south-western Java Island, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables. Camera trapping was performed in different habitat types during both wet and dry season to record these elusive species. The highest number of photographs was recorded in secondary forest and during the dry season for both Bawean deer and red muntjac. In models, anthropogenic and climatic variables were the main predictors of habitat use. Distances to cultivated area and to settlement were the most important for A. kuhlii in the dry season. Distances to cultivated area and annual rainfall were significant for M. muntjak in both seasons. Then we modelled their predictive range using Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We concluded that forest landscape is the fundamental scale for deer management, and that secondary forests are potentially important landscape elements for deer conservation. Important areas for conservation were identified accounting of habitat transformation in both study areas.

  5. Morphological variation and host range of two Ganoderma species from Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilotti, Carmel A; Sanderson, Frank R; Aitken, Elizabeth A B; Armstrong, Wendy

    2004-08-01

    Two species of Ganoderma belonging to different subgenera which cause disease on oil palms in PNG are identified by basidiome morphology and the morphology of their basidiospores. The names G. boninense and G. tornatum have been applied. Significant pleiomorphy was observed in basidiome characters amongst the specimens examined. This variation in most instances did not correlate well with host or host status. Spore morphology appeared uniform within a species and spore indices varied only slightly. G. tornatum was found to have a broad host range whereas G. boninense appears to be restricted to palms in Papua New Guinea.

  6. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  7. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

    2015-10-01

    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  8. Status of endangered and threatened plant species on Tonopah Test Range: a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhoads, W.A.; Cochrane, S.A.; Williams, M.P.

    1979-10-01

    Six species under consideration by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) for endangered or threatened status were found on or near the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) in southern central Nevada. Based on recognized threats to these species, their overall distribution, rarity, and other factors, status recommendations were prepared for Sandia Corporation. In addition, ten species that occur in the vicinity of TTR, and which may yet be found on TTR, are discussed in brief. Each species is discussed in relation to distribution, rarity, taxonomy, habitat requirements, endangerment, assessment of status, and proposed protection and monitoring needs. Construction activities and off-road vehicle travel are the most prominent man-caused threats to species on TTR; habitat destruction by trampling and over-grazing by feral horses and non-permit cattle significantly modifies habitats of certain species. We recommend two kinds of protective measures. First is the planning of activities so that habitats, particularly the suggested protected habitats, are not disturbed. Second, and directed to the same end, off-road traffic should be curtailed in the regions of the proposed protected habitats

  9. Weights, hematology and serum chemistry of seven species of free-ranging tropical pelagic seabirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Work, Thierry M.

    1996-01-01

    I established reference values for weight, hematology, and serum chemistry for seven species of free-ranging Hawaiian tropical pelagic seabirds comprising three orders (Procellariiformes, Pelecaniformes, Charadriiformes) and six families (Procellariidae, Phaethontidae, Diomedeidae, Sulidae, Fregatidae, and Laridae). Species examined included 84 Hawaiian dark-rumped petrels (Pterodoma phaeopygia), 90 wedge-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus pacificus), 151 Laysan albatrosses (Diomedea immutabilis), 69 red-footed boobies (Sula sula), 154 red-tailed tropicbirds (Phaeton rubricauda), 90 great frigatebirds (Fregata minor), and 72 sooty terns (Sterna fuscata). Hematocrit, total plasma solids, total and differential white cell counts, serum glucose, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, total protein, albumin, globulin, aspartate aminotransferase and creatinine phosphokinase were analyzed. Among and within species, hematology and chemistry values varied with age, sex, season, and island of collection. Despite this variation, order-wide trends were observed.

  10. Using a data-constrained model of home range establishment to predict abundance in spatially heterogeneous habitats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Vanderwel

    Full Text Available Mechanistic modelling approaches that explicitly translate from individual-scale resource selection to the distribution and abundance of a larger population may be better suited to predicting responses to spatially heterogeneous habitat alteration than commonly-used regression models. We developed an individual-based model of home range establishment that, given a mapped distribution of local habitat values, estimates species abundance by simulating the number and position of viable home ranges that can be maintained across a spatially heterogeneous area. We estimated parameters for this model from data on red-backed vole (Myodes gapperi abundances in 31 boreal forest sites in Ontario, Canada. The home range model had considerably more support from these data than both non-spatial regression models based on the same original habitat variables and a mean-abundance null model. It had nearly equivalent support to a non-spatial regression model that, like the home range model, scaled an aggregate measure of habitat value from local associations with habitat resources. The home range and habitat-value regression models gave similar predictions for vole abundance under simulations of light- and moderate-intensity partial forest harvesting, but the home range model predicted lower abundances than the regression model under high-intensity disturbance. Empirical regression-based approaches for predicting species abundance may overlook processes that affect habitat use by individuals, and often extrapolate poorly to novel habitat conditions. Mechanistic home range models that can be parameterized against abundance data from different habitats permit appropriate scaling from individual- to population-level habitat relationships, and can potentially provide better insights into responses to disturbance.

  11. Interaction of species traits and environmental disturbance predicts invasion success of aquatic microorganisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvira Mächler

    Full Text Available Factors such as increased mobility of humans, global trade and climate change are affecting the range of many species, and cause large-scale translocations of species beyond their native range. Many introduced species have a strong negative influence on the new local environment and lead to high economic costs. There is a strong interest to understand why some species are successful in invading new environments and others not. Most of our understanding and generalizations thereof, however, are based on studies of plants and animals, and little is known on invasion processes of microorganisms. We conducted a microcosm experiment to understand factors promoting the success of biological invasions of aquatic microorganisms. In a controlled lab experiment, protist and rotifer species originally isolated in North America invaded into a natural, field-collected community of microorganisms of European origin. To identify the importance of environmental disturbances on invasion success, we either repeatedly disturbed the local patches, or kept them as undisturbed controls. We measured both short-term establishment and long-term invasion success, and correlated it with species-specific life-history traits. We found that environmental disturbances significantly affected invasion success. Depending on the invading species' identity, disturbances were either promoting or decreasing invasion success. The interaction between habitat disturbance and species identity was especially pronounced for long-term invasion success. Growth rate was the most important trait promoting invasion success, especially when the species invaded into a disturbed local community. We conclude that neither species traits nor environmental factors alone conclusively predict invasion success, but an integration of both of them is necessary.

  12. Predicting sorption of organic acids to a wide range of carbonized sorbents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Gabriel; Kah, Melanie; Sun, Huichao; Hofmann, Thilo

    2016-04-01

    Many contaminants and infochemicals are organic acids that undergo dissociation under environmental conditions. The sorption of dissociated anions to biochar and other carbonized sorbents is typically lower than that of neutral species. It is driven by complex processes that are not yet fully understood. It is known that predictive approaches developed for neutral compounds are unlikely to be suitable for organic acids, due to the effects of dissociation on sorption. Previous studies on the sorption of organic acids to soils have demonstrated that log Dow, which describes the decrease in hydrophobicity of acids upon dissociation, is a useful alternative to log Kow. The aim of the present study was to adapt a log Dow based approach to describe the sorption of organic acids to carbonized sorbents. Batch experiments were performed with a series of 9 sorbents (i.e., carbonized wood shavings, pig manure, and sewage sludge, carbon nanotubes and activated carbon), and four acids commonly used for pesticidal and biocidal purposes (i.e., 2,4-D, MCPA, 2,4-DB, and triclosan). Sorbents were comprehensively characterized, including by N2 and CO2 physisorption, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and elemental analysis. The wide range of sorbents considered allows (i) discussing the mechanisms driving the sorption of neutral and anionic species to biochar, and (ii) their dependency on sorbate and sorbent properties. Results showed that the sorption of the four acids was influenced by factors that are usually not considered for neutral compounds (i.e., pH, ionic strength). Dissociation affected the sorption of the four compounds, and sorption of the anions ranged over five orders of magnitude, thus substantially contributing to sorption in some cases. For prediction purposes, most of the variation in sorption to carbonized sorbents (89%) could be well described with a two-parameter regression equation including log Dow and sorbent specific surface area. The proposed model

  13. Do species differ in their ability to coexist with the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus? A comparison between two distinct invaded ranges and a native range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Hejda

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The community-level impacts of invasive plants are likely to vary depending on the character of native species of the target communities and their ability to thrive within the stands of the dominant alien invader. Therefore, I examined the response of native species richness to the cover of the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus in two distinct invaded ranges: Czech Republic (Central Europe and New Zealand. I compared the relation between native species richness and the cover of the dominant alien L. polyphyllus with that in its native range, Pacific Northwest, USA.In the native range, I found no response of native species richness to the cover of L. polyphyllus. In the Czech Republic (central Europe, the richness of native species related to it negativelly, but the relation was only marginally significant. Contrary to that, the richness of species native to New Zealand related to the cover of L. polyphyllus strongly negatively and the negative relation was significantly stronger than that of species native to Europe.Of the two invaded ranges, species native to New Zealand have been documented to be much more vulnerable to the conditions associated with the invasion and dominance of L. polyphyllus, compared to species native to central Europe. This principle has been shown both across these two invaded ranges and in New Zealand, where the aliens of european origin successfully coexist with the dominant invasive alien L. polyphyllus. Similarly, species in the native range of L. polyphyllus showed no relation to its cover, indicating their ability to thrive even in dense stands of this dominant species.

  14. The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of Ailanthus altissima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Albright; Hao Chen; Lijun Chen; Qinfeng Guo

    2010-01-01

    Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US...

  15. Dynamic Seascapes Predict the Marine Occurrence of an Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breece, M.; Fox, D. A.; Dunton, K. J.; Frisk, M. G.; Jordaan, A.; Oliver, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Landscapes are powerful environmental partitions that index complex biogeochemical processes that drive terrestrial species distributions. However, translating landscapes into seascapes requires that the dynamic nature of the fluid environment be reflected in spatial and temporal boundaries such that seascapes can be used in marine species distribution models and conservation decisions. A seascape product derived from satellite ocean color and sea surface temperature partitioned mid-Atlantic coastal waters on scales commensurate with the Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus coastal migration. The seascapes were then matched with acoustic telemetry records of Atlantic Sturgeon to determine seascape selectivity. To test our model, we used real-time satellite seascape maps to normalize the sampling of an autonomous underwater vehicle that resampled similar geographic regions with time varying seascape classifications. We found that Atlantic Sturgeon exhibited preference for one seascape class over those available in the coastal ocean, indicating selection for environmental properties that co-varied with the dynamic seascape class rather than geographical location. The recent listing of Atlantic Sturgeon as Endangered throughout much of their United States range has highlighted the need for improved understanding of their occurrence in marine waters to reduce interactions with various anthropogenic stressors. Narrow dynamic migration corridors may enable seascapes to be used as a daily decision tool by industry and managers to reduce interactions with this Endangered Species during coastal migrations.

  16. Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

  17. Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

  18. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical network...

  19. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily range points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature daily ranges in New England based on a spatial statistical...

  20. Using phylogenetic and ionomic relationships to predict the uptake of radionuclides by any plant species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willey, Neil J.; Siasou, Eleni [Centre for Research In Biosciences, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay, Bristol BS16 1QY (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    It is not practical to empirically derive soil-to-plant TFs for all soil-plant combinations that are important in radiological assessments, so predictions for a range of species on different soils types are frequently impossible because TFs are unknown. This severely hampers predictions of both doses to biota and of the contamination of a variety of food chains with radioisotopes. Compilations of TFs in themselves provide no fundamental understanding of the plant factors that control the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides and thus no method of prediction. We have developed methods for the meta-analyses of radionuclide transfer data that can be used to make predictions of the transfer of radionuclides into any plants species for which TFs do not exist based on an understand of the plant factors that control radionuclide uptake. There is no reason a priori to think that variation in TF should be constrained by species. The species is, essentially, a reproductive unit and variation in many plant traits, some of which might control radionuclide uptake, occurs at taxonomic levels above the species. In the last 15 years genomic information has transformed the understanding of the evolutionary relationships of the living world so that new 'trees of life' (phylogenies) are now available. Using a Residual Maximum Likelihood modeling procedure to compile a significant proportion of all existing TF data onto a single scale, we here present a synthesis of the influence of phylogeny on variation in soil-to-plant TFs for radioisotopes of Cs, Sr, Co, I, Tc, and S. We show that a significant proportion of variation in TF is associated with major branches of the phylogeny of angiosperms (flowering plants) so that knowledge of a species' position on the phylogeny can be used to make predictions of transfer relative to other species. These phylogenetically-based predictions of relative transfer to any species can be used to make absolute predictions to any species

  1. Tree species and soil nutrient profiles in old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

    2011-01-01

    Old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique opportunity to examine tree species – soil relationships in ecosystems that have developed without significant human disturbance. We characterized foliage, forest floor, and mineral soil nutrients associated with four canopy tree species (Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), and bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum Pursh)) in eight old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range. The greatest forest floor accumulations of C, N, P, Ca, Mg, and K occurred under Douglas-fir, primarily due to greater forest floor mass. In mineral soil, western hemlock exhibited significantly lower Ca concentration and sum of cations (Ca + Mg + K) than bigleaf maple, with intermediate values for Douglas-fir and western redcedar. Bigleaf maple explained most species-based differences in foliar nutrients, displaying high concentrations of N, P, Ca, Mg, and K. Foliar P and N:P variations largely reflected soil P variation across sites. The four tree species that we examined exhibited a number of individualistic effects on soil nutrient levels that contribute to biogeochemical heterogeneity in these ecosystems. Where fire suppression and long-term succession favor dominance by highly shade-tolerant western hemlock, our results suggest a potential for declines in both soil Ca availability and soil biogeochemical heterogeneity in old-growth forests.

  2. Assessment of ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.

    1995-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites generally focuses on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area. While appropriate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination, this approach is not adequate for sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites. These species may therefore be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a site (and therefore exposure and risk) by wildlife is dependent upon the availability of habitat. Availability and distribution of habitat on the ORR was determined using satellite imagery. The proportion of habitat within contaminated areas was then determined by overlaying boundaries of contaminated areas (Operable Units or OUs) on the ORR habitat map. The likelihood of contaminant exposure was estimated by comparing the habitat requirements for wildlife species to the proportion of suitable habitat within OUs. OU-specific contaminant concentrations in surface water, soil, or biota were used to estimate the magnitude of risk presented by each DU. The proportion of ORR-wide population likely to be exposed was estimated using literature-derived population density data for each endpoint. At present, due to major data gaps (i.e., lack of data for all OUs, site-specific population density or habitat use data, etc.) uncertainty associated with conclusions is high. Results of this assessment must therefore be considered to be preliminary

  3. A comparison on radar range profiles between in-flight measurements and RCS-predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heiden, R. van der; Ewijk, L.J. van; Groen, F.C.A.

    1998-01-01

    The validation of Radar Cross Section (RCS) prediction techniques against real measurements is crucial to acquire confidence in predictions when measurements are nut available. In this paper we present the results of a comparison on one-dimensional signatures, i.e. radar range profiles. The profiles

  4. A short-range weather prediction system for South Africa based on a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The accurate prediction of rainfall events, in terms of their timing, location and rainfall depth, is important to a wide range of social and economic applications. At many operational weather prediction centres, as is also the case at the South African Weather Service, forecasters use deterministic model outputs as guidance to ...

  5. Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

  6. Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.

    2018-03-01

    Arctic Cyclones (ACs) can have a significant impact on the Arctic region. Therefore, the accurate prediction of ACs is important in anticipating their associated environmental and societal costs. This study investigates the predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone (AC12) that exhibited a minimum central pressure of 964 hPa on 6 August 2012, using five medium-range ensemble forecasts. We show that the development and position of AC12 were better predicted in forecasts initialized on and after 4 August 2012. In addition, the position of AC12 was more predictable than its development. A comparison of ensemble members, classified by the error in predictability of the development and position of AC12, revealed that an accurate prediction of upper-level fields, particularly temperature, was important for the prediction of this event. The predicted position of AC12 was influenced mainly by the prediction of the polar vortex, whereas the predicted development of AC12 was dependent primarily on the prediction of the merging of upper-level warm cores. Consequently, an accurate prediction of the polar vortex position and the development of the warm core through merging resulted in better prediction of AC12.

  7. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L Leann; Fuller, Todd K; Sievert, Paul R; Kellogg, Robert L

    2009-06-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations.

  8. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. DETOMIDINE AND BUTORPHANOL FOR STANDING SEDATION IN A RANGE OF ZOO-KEPT UNGULATE SPECIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouts, Tim; Dodds, Joanne; Berry, Karla; Arif, Abdi; Taylor, Polly; Routh, Andrew; Gasthuys, Frank

    2017-09-01

    General anesthesia poses risks for larger zoo species, like cardiorespiratory depression, myopathy, and hyperthermia. In ruminants, ruminal bloat and regurgitation of rumen contents with potential aspiration pneumonia are added risks. Thus, the use of sedation to perform minor procedures is justified in zoo animals. A combination of detomidine and butorphanol has been routinely used in domestic animals. This drug combination, administered by remote intramuscular injection, can also be applied for standing sedation in a range of zoo animals, allowing a number of minor procedures. The combination was successfully administered in five species of nondomesticated equids (Przewalski horse [ Equus ferus przewalskii; n = 1], onager [ Equus hemionus onager; n = 4], kiang [ Equus kiang ; n = 3], Grevy's zebra [ Equus grevyi ; n = 4], and Somali wild ass [ Equus africanus somaliensis; n = 7]), with a mean dose range of 0.10-0.17 mg/kg detomidine and 0.07-0.13 mg/kg butorphanol; the white ( Ceratotherium simum simum; n = 12) and greater one-horned rhinoceros ( Rhinoceros unicornis ; n = 4), with a mean dose of 0.015 mg/kg of both detomidine and butorphanol; and Asiatic elephant bulls ( Elephas maximus ; n = 2), with a mean dose of 0.018 mg/kg of both detomidine and butorphanol. In addition, the combination was successfully used for standing sedation in six species of artiodactylids: giraffe ( Giraffa camelopardalis reticulata; n = 3), western bongo ( Tragelaphus eurycerus eurycerus; n = 2), wisent ( Bison bonasus ; n = 5), yak ( Bos grunniens ; n = 1), water buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis ; n = 4) and Bactrian camel ( Camelus bactrianus ; n = 5). The mean dose range for artiodactylid species except bongo was 0.04-0.06 mg/kg detomidine and 0.03-0.06 mg/kg butorphanol. The dose in bongo, 0.15-0.20 mg/kg detomidine and 0.13-0.15 mg/kg butorphanol, was considerably higher. Times to first effect, approach, and recovery after antidote were short. The use of detomidine and butorphanol has

  10. First records of three species of Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Coleóptera: Belidae in Argentina and use of a predictive model to compare their potential distribution with the range of their host-plant, Araucaria araucana Primera cita de las tres especies de Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Coleóptera: Belidae en Argentina y uso de un modelo predictivo para comparar su distribución potencial con el rango de su planta huésped, la Araucaria araucana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. FERRER

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The first records of the three known species of Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Belidae: Oxycoryninae in Argentina are reported, and added to their known distribution in Chile. These weevils are of interest because of their association with the pehuén or monkey puzzle tree, Araucaria araucana, a species of conservation concern. Their distribution data are of value for the protection of biodiversity in natural areas of Patagonia. The potential distribution of Oxycraspedus, as predicted by a model using bioclimatic variables, is coincident as expected, with the geographic range of the araucaria host-plantSe reportan por primera vez en Argentina las tres especies de Oxycraspedus Kuschel (Belidae: Oxycoryninae y se añaden a su distribución en Chile. Estos gorgojos son de interés debido a su asociación con el pehuén Araucaria araucana, una especie de gran interés en temas de conservación. Los datos sobre su distribución son valiosos para proteger la biodiversidad en áreas de la Patagonia. La distribución potencial de Oxycraspedus predicha por un modelo a partir de variables bioclimáticas, es coincidente, como se esperaba, con el rango geográfico de su planta huésped, la araucaria

  11. Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

    2013-01-01

    Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

  12. Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth

    2018-01-01

    There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.

  13. Compensation for the distortion in satellite laser range predictions due to varying pulse travel times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paunonen, Matti

    1993-01-01

    A method for compensating for the effect of the varying travel time of a transmitted laser pulse to a satellite is described. The 'observed minus predicted' range differences then appear to be linear, which makes data screening or use in range gating more effective.

  14. Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

    2013-01-01

    The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

  15. Threatened species richness along a Himalayan elevational gradient: quantifying the influences of human population density, range size, and geometric constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paudel, Prakash Kumar; Sipos, Jan; Brodie, Jedediah F

    2018-02-07

    A crucial step in conserving biodiversity is to identify the distributions of threatened species and the factors associated with species threat status. In the biodiversity hotspot of the Himalaya, very little is known about which locations harbour the highest diversity of threatened species and whether diversity of such species is related to area, mid-domain effects (MDE), range size, or human density. In this study, we assessed the drivers of variation in richness of threatened birds, mammals, reptiles, actinopterygii, and amphibians along an elevational gradient in Nepal Himalaya. Although geometric constraints (MDE), species range size, and human population density were significantly related to threatened species richness, the interaction between range size and human population density was of greater importance. Threatened species richness was positively associated with human population density and negatively associated with range size. In areas with high richness of threatened species, species ranges tend to be small. The preponderance of species at risk of extinction at low elevations in the subtropical biodiversity hotspot could be due to the double impact of smaller range sizes and higher human density.

  16. [Altitudinal patterns of species richness and species range size of vascular plants in Xiaolong- shan Reserve of Qinling Mountain: a test of Rapoport' s rule].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zhi; Gong, Da-Jie; Sun, Cheng-Xiang; Li, Xiao-Jun; Li, Wan-Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Altitudinal patterns of species richness and species range size and their underlying mechanisms have long been a key topic in biogeography and biodiversity research. Rapoport's rule stated that the species richness gradually declined with the increasing altitude, while the species ranges became larger. Using altitude-distribution database from Xiaolongshan Reverse, this study explored the altitudinal patterns of vascular plant species richness and species range in Qinling Xiaolongshan Reserve, and examined the relationships between species richness and their distributional middle points in altitudinal bands for different fauna, taxonomic units and growth forms and tested the Rapoport's rule by using Stevens' method, Pagel's method, mid-point method and cross-species method. The results showed that the species richness of vascular plants except small-range species showed a unimodal pattern along the altitude in Qinling Xiaolongshan Reserve and the highest proportion of small-range species was found at the lower altitudinal bands and at the higher altitudinal bands. Due to different assemblages and examining methods, the relationships between species distributing range sizes and the altitudes were different. Increasing taxonomic units was easier to support Rapoport's rule, which was related to niche differences that the different taxonomic units occupied. The mean species range size of angiosperms showed a unimodal pattern along the altitude, while those of the gymnosperms and pteridophytes were unclearly regular. The mean species range size of the climbers was wider with the increasing altitude, while that of the shrubs which could adapt to different environmental situations was not sensitive to the change of altitude. Pagel's method was easier to support the Rapoport's rule, and then was Steven's method. On the contrary, due to the mid-domain effect, the results of the test by using the mid-point method showed that the mean species range size varied in a unimodal

  17. Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archambault, Jennifer M.; Cope, W. Gregory; Kwak, Thomas J.

    2018-01-01

    AimStudies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.LocationNorth American Atlantic Slope rivers.MethodsTo understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.ResultsBrooding duration (p  .10).Main conclusionsOur results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

  18. The Eocene Arctic Azolla phenomenon: species composition, temporal range and geographic extent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collinson, Margaret; Barke, Judith; van der Burgh, Johan; van Konijnenburg-van Cittert, Johanna; Pearce, Martin; Bujak, Jonathan; Brinkhuis, Henk

    2010-05-01

    Azolla is a free-floating freshwater fern that is renowned for its rapid vegetative spread and invasive biology, being one of the world's fastest growing aquatic macrophytes. Two species of this plant have been shown to have bloomed and reproduced in enormous numbers in the latest Early to earliest Middle Eocene of the Arctic Ocean and North Sea based on samples from IODP cores from the Lomonosov Ridge (Arctic) and from outcrops in Denmark (Collinson et al 2009 a,b Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 155,1-14; and doi:10.1016/j.revpalbo.2009.12.001). To determine the geographic and temporal extent of this Azolla phenomenon, and the spatial distribution of the different species, we have examined samples from 15 additional sites using material from ODP cores and commercial exploration wells. The sites range from the Sub-Arctic (Northern Alaska and Canadian Beaufort Mackenzie Basin) to the Nordic Seas (Norwegian-Greenland Sea and North Sea Basin). Our data show that the Azolla phenomenon involved at least three species. These are distinguished by characters of the megaspore apparatus (e.g. megaspore wall, floats, filosum) and the microspore massulae (e.g. glochidia fluke tips). The Lomonosov Ridge (Arctic) and Danish occurrences are monotypic but in other sites more than one species co-existed. The attachment to one another and the co-occurrence of megaspore apparatus and microspore massulae, combined with evidence that these spores were shed at the fully mature stage of their life cycle, shows that the Azolla remains were not transported over long distances, a fact which could not be assumed from isolated massula fragments alone. Our evidence, therefore, shows that Azolla plants grew on the ocean surfaces for approximately 1.2 million years (from 49.3 to 48.1 Ma) and that the Azolla phenomenon covered the area from Denmark northwards across the North Sea Basin and the whole of the Arctic and Nordic seas. Apparently, early Middle Eocene Northern Hemisphere middle

  19. PREDICTING FIELD PERFORMANCE OF HERBACEOUS SPECIES FOR PHYTOREMEDIATION OF PERCHLORATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Results of these short-term experiments coupled with ecological knowledge of the nine herbaceous plant species tested suggest that several species may by successful in on-site remediation of perchlorate. The two wetland species which appear to be most suitable for field experimen...

  20. Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olalla-Tárraga1, Miguel Á.; McInnes, Linsey; Bini, Luis M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Comparative evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism – the tendency for lineages to retain their ancestral niches over long time scales – has so far been mixed, depending on spatial and taxonomic scale. We quantify and compare conservatism in the climatic factors defining range boundaries...... conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals...... and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution...

  1. Peracetic Acid Treatment Generates Potent Inactivated Oral Vaccines from a Broad Range of Culturable Bacterial Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moor, Kathrin; Wotzka, Sandra Y.; Toska, Albulena; Diard, Médéric; Hapfelmeier, Siegfried; Slack, Emma

    2016-01-01

    Our mucosal surfaces are the main sites of non-vector-borne pathogen entry, as well as the main interface with our commensal microbiota. We are still only beginning to understand how mucosal adaptive immunity interacts with commensal and pathogenic microbes to influence factors such as infectivity, phenotypic diversity, and within-host evolution. This is in part due to difficulties in generating specific mucosal adaptive immune responses without disrupting the mucosal microbial ecosystem itself. Here, we present a very simple tool to generate inactivated mucosal vaccines from a broad range of culturable bacteria. Oral gavage of 1010 peracetic acid-inactivated bacteria induces high-titer-specific intestinal IgA in the absence of any measurable inflammation or species invasion. As a proof of principle, we demonstrate that this technique is sufficient to provide fully protective immunity in the murine model of invasive non-typhoidal Salmonellosis, even in the face of severe innate immune deficiency. PMID:26904024

  2. ASSESSING THE NATURAL REGENERATION OF THREE SPECIES CONIFER NATURAL RANGE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS OF GUATEMALA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Miguel Godínez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Coniferous forests of the western highlands of Guatemala have been disturbed by human intervention and natural phenomena, which has allowed the occurrence of the phenomenon of natural regeneration. In this scenario the density of natural regeneration of conifers three species evaluated (Pinus oocarpa Schiede, P. pseudostrobus Lindl. and P. tecunumanii Eguiluz & Perry in 60 sites distributed in space and clear edge. The variables evaluated were the source of disturbance that caused its establishment, density variation of the source of seed and distance estimation range scattering adequate regeneration, using sampling units of 25 m2 for natural regeneration and 500 m2 seed source trees. Disturbance sources identified were logging 55%, 24% forest fires, pests 8%, agriculture, avalanche 5% each and hurricane 3%. The variation of the density of natural regeneration on the seed source, corresponds to the inverted J models for edges, and to clear variable subpopulations. Dispersal distances of natural regeneration was established for P.oocarpa 65 m in edges, and 160 m in the clears; P. pseudostrobus 75 m in edges, and 175 m in the clears; and P. tecunumanii was 70 m in edges, and 170 m in the clears. Dispersal distances with acceptable densities according National Forestry Institute-Regional Forestry Programme for Central American, for the three species vary from 65-175 m

  3. Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Rose A.; Pearson, Scott M.; Turner, Monica G.

    2017-01-01

    Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked (i) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; (ii) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and (iii) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors (n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities (n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply. PMID:28320953

  4. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  5. Reduced mandibular range of motion in Duchenne muscular dystrophy : Predictive factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bruggen, H. W.; Van Den Engel-Hoek, L.; Steenks, M. H.; Bronkhorst, E. M.; Creugers, N. H J; de Groot, I. J M; Kalaykova, S. I.

    2015-01-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) experience negative effects upon feeding and oral health. We aimed to determine whether the mandibular range of motion in DMD is impaired and to explore predictive factors for the active maximum mouth opening (aMMO). 23 patients with DMD (mean age 16·7

  6. In silico site-directed mutagenesis informs species-specific predictions of chemical susceptibility derived from the Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool was developed to address needs for rapid, cost effective methods of species extrapolation of chemical susceptibility. Specifically, the SeqAPASS tool compares the primary sequence (Level 1), functiona...

  7. Miedema model based methodology to predict amorphous-forming-composition range in binary and ternary systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, N., E-mail: nirupamd@barc.gov.in [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Mittra, J. [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Murty, B.S. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, IIT Madras, Chennai 600 036 (India); Pabi, S.K. [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721 302 (India); Kulkarni, U.D.; Dey, G.K. [Materials Science Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A methodology was proposed to predict amorphous forming compositions (AFCs). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Chemical contribution to enthalpy of mixing {proportional_to} enthalpy of amorphous for AFCs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Accuracy in the prediction of AFC-range was noticed in Al-Ni-Ti system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mechanical alloying (MA) results of Al-Ni-Ti followed the predicted AFC-range. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Earlier MA results of Al-Ni-Ti also conformed to the predicted AFC-range. - Abstract: From the earlier works on the prediction of amorphous forming composition range (AFCR) using Miedema based model and also, on mechanical alloying experiments it has been observed that all amorphous forming compositions of a given alloy system falls within a linear band when the chemical contribution to enthalpy of the solid solution ({Delta}H{sup ss}) is plotted against the enthalpy of mixing in the amorphous phase ({Delta}H{sup amor}). On the basis of this observation, a methodology has been proposed in this article to identify the AFCR of a ternary system that is likely to be more precise than what can be obtained using {Delta}H{sup amor} - {Delta}H{sup ss} < 0 criterion. MA experiments on various compositions of Al-Ni-Ti system, producing amorphous, crystalline, and mixture of amorphous plus crystalline phases have been carried out and the phases have been characterized using X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy techniques. Data from the present MA experiments and, also, from the literature have been used to validate the proposed approach. Also, the proximity of compositions, producing a mixture of amorphous and crystalline phases to the boundary of AFCR in the Al-Ni-Ti ternary has been found useful to validate the effectiveness of the prediction.

  8. Do species differ in their ability to coexist with the dominant alien Lupinus polyphyllus? A comparison between two distinct invaded ranges and a native range

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hejda, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 17, jun 2013 (2013), s. 39-55 ISSN 1619-0033 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP505/11/1112; GA ČR GA206/07/0668 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : lupinus polyphyllus * invasive alien species * native range Subject RIV: EF - Botanics

  9. Pipeline defect prediction using long range ultrasonic testing and intelligent processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dino Isa; Rajprasad Rajkumar

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with efforts to improve nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques by using artificial intelligence in detecting and predicting pipeline defects such as cracks and wall thinning. The main emphasis here will be on the prediction of corrosion type defects rather than just detection after the fact. Long range ultrasonic testing will be employed, where a ring of piezoelectric transducers are used to generate torsional guided waves. Various defects such as cracks as well as corrosion under insulation (CUI) will be simulated on a test pipe. The machine learning algorithm known as the Support Vector Machine (SVM) will be used to predict and classify transducer signals using regression and large margin classification. Regression results show that the SVM is able to accurately predict future defects based on trends of previous defect. The classification performance was also exceptional showing a facility to detect defects at different depths as well as for distinguishing closely spaced defects. (author)

  10. Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Sutton

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

  11. Predicting the dynamics of local adaptation in invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    An invasive plant species may restrict its spread to only one habitat, or, after some time, may continue to spread into a different, secondary, habitat. The question of whether evolution is required for an invasive species to spread from one habitat to another is currently hotly debated. In order fo...

  12. Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalobos, Fabricio; Carotenuto, Francesco; Raia, Pasquale; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F

    2016-04-05

    Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes--speciation, extinction and dispersal--in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

  13. How do low dispersal species establish large range sizes? The case of the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Lars Lønsmann; Rannap, Riinu; Thomsen, Philip Francis

    2013-01-01

    important than species phylogeny or local spatial attributes. In this study we used the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus a philopatric species of conservation concern in Europe as a model to explain large range size and to support effective conservation measures for such species that also have limited...... systems and wetlands which used to be highly connected throughout the central plains of Europe. Our data suggest that a broad habitat niche can prevent landscape elements from becoming barriers for species like G. bilineatus. Therefore, we question the usefulness of site protection as conservation...... measures for G. bilineatus and similar philopatric species. Instead, conservation actions should be focused at the landscape level to ensure a long-term viability of such species across their range....

  14. SRKW summer prey - Prey species and stock specific consumption estimates for SRKW in their summer range

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Southern Resident Killer Whales (SRKW) are listed as a Distinct Population Segment under the Endangered Species Act. Data concerning their prey species and stock...

  15. NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

  16. Species boundaries and host range of tortoise mites (Uropodoidea phoretic on bark beetles (Scolytinae, using morphometric and molecular markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne Knee

    Full Text Available Understanding the ecology and evolutionary history of symbionts and their hosts requires accurate taxonomic knowledge, including clear species boundaries and phylogenies. Tortoise mites (Mesostigmata: Uropodoidea are among the most diverse arthropod associates of bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae, but their taxonomy and host associations are largely unstudied. We tested the hypotheses that (1 morphologically defined species are supported by molecular data, and that (2 bark beetle uropodoids with a broad host range comprise cryptic species. To do so, we assessed the species boundaries of uropodoid mites collected from 51 host species, across 11 countries and 103 sites, using morphometric data as well as partial cytochrome oxidase I (COI and nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA (28S. Overall, morphologically defined species were confirmed by molecular datasets, with a few exceptions. Twenty-nine of the 36 uropodoid species (Trichouropoda, Nenteria and Uroobovella collected in this study had narrow host ranges, while seven species had putative broad host ranges. In all but one species, U. orri, our data supported the existence of these host generalists, which contrasts with the typical finding that widespread generalists are actually complexes of cryptic specialists.

  17. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  18. SeqAPASS: Predicting chemical susceptibility to threatened/endangered species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conservation of a molecular target across species can be used as a line-of-evidence to predict the likelihood of chemical susceptibility. The web-based Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS; https://seqapass.epa.gov/seqapass/) application was devel...

  19. Using individual differences to predict job performance: correcting for direct and indirect restriction of range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjöberg, Sofia; Sjöberg, Anders; Näswall, Katharina; Sverke, Magnus

    2012-08-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between individual differences, indicated by personality (FFM) and general mental ability (GMA), and job performance applying two different methods of correction for range restriction. The results, derived by analyzing meta-analytic correlations, show that the more accurate method of correcting for indirect range restriction increased the operational validity of individual differences in predicting job performance and that this increase primarily was due to general mental ability being a stronger predictor than any of the personality traits. The estimates for single traits can be applied in practice to maximize prediction of job performance. Further, differences in the relative importance of general mental ability in relation to overall personality assessment methods was substantive and the estimates provided enables practitioners to perform a correct utility analysis of their overall selection procedure. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

  20. Clinical Prediction Model for Time in Therapeutic Range While on Warfarin in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Brent A; Evans, Michael A; Honushefsky, Ashley M; Berger, Peter B

    2017-10-12

    Though warfarin has historically been the primary oral anticoagulant for stroke prevention in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), several new direct oral anticoagulants may be preferred when anticoagulation control with warfarin is expected to be poor. This study developed a prediction model for time in therapeutic range (TTR) among newly diagnosed AF patients on newly initiated warfarin as a tool to assist decision making between warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants. This electronic medical record-based, retrospective study included newly diagnosed, nonvalvular AF patients with no recent warfarin exposure receiving primary care services through a large healthcare system in rural Pennsylvania. TTR was estimated as the percentage of time international normalized ratio measurements were between 2.0 and 3.0 during the first year following warfarin initiation. Candidate predictors of TTR were chosen from data elements collected during usual clinical care. A TTR prediction model was developed and temporally validated and its predictive performance was compared with the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score (sex, age, medical history, treatment, tobacco, race) using R 2 and c-statistics. A total of 7877 newly diagnosed AF patients met study inclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) TTR within the first year of starting warfarin was 51% (32, 67). Of 85 candidate predictors evaluated, 15 were included in the final validated model with an R 2 of 15.4%. The proposed model showed better predictive performance than the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score ( R 2 =3.0%). The proposed prediction model may assist decision making on the proper mode of oral anticoagulant among newly diagnosed AF patients. However, predicting TTR on warfarin remains challenging. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  1. Does enemy damage vary across the range of exotic plant species? Evidence from two coastal dune plant species in eastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabassum, Samiya; Leishman, Michelle R

    2018-02-01

    Release from natural enemies is often cited as a key factor for understanding the success of invasive plant species in novel environments. However, with time invasive species will accumulate native enemies in their invaded range, with factors such as spread distance from the site of introduction, climate and leaf-level traits potentially affecting enemy acquisition rates. However, the influence of such factors is difficult to assess without examining enemy attack across the entire species' range. We tested the significance of factors associated with range expansion (distance from source population and maximum population density), climatic variables (annual temperature and rainfall) and leaf-level traits [specific leaf area (SLA) and foliar nitrogen concentration] in explaining variation in enemy damage across multiple populations of two coastal invasive plants (Gladiolus gueinzii Kunze and Hydrocotyle bonariensis Lam.) along their entire introduced distribution in eastern Australia. We found that for H. bonariensis, amount of foliar damage increased with distance from source population. In contrast, for G. gueinzii, probability and amount of foliar damage decreased with decreasing temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively. Our results show that patterns of enemy attack across species' ranges are complex and cannot be generalised between species or even range edges.

  2. The influence of study species selection on estimates of pesticide exposure in free-ranging birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Shannon L.; Vyas, Nimish B.; Christman, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    Field studies of pesticide effects on birds often utilize indicator species with the purpose 16 of extrapolating to other avian taxa. Little guidance exists for choosing indicator species to 17 monitor the presence and/or effects of contaminants that are labile in the environment or body, 18 but are acutely toxic, such as anticholinesterase (anti-ChE) insecticides. Use of an indicator 19 species that does not represent maximum exposure and/or effects could lead to inaccurate risk 20 estimates. Our objective was to test the relevance of a priori selection of indicator species for a 21 study on pesticide exposure to birds inhabiting fruit orchards. We used total plasma 22 cholinesterase (ChE) activity and ChE reactivation to describe the variability in anti-ChE exposure among avian species in two conventionally managed fruit orchards. Of seven 24 species included in statistical analyses, the less common species, chipping sparrow (Spizella 25 passerina), showed the greatest percentage of exposed individuals and the greatest ChE 26 depression, whereas the two most common species, American robins (Turdus migratorius) and 27 grey catbirds (Dumatella carolinensis), did not show significant exposure. Due to their lower 28 abundance, chipping sparrows would have been an unlikely choice for study. Our results show 29 that selection of indicator species using traditionally accepted criteria such as abundance and 30 ease of collection may not identify species that are at greatest risk. Our efforts also demonstrate 31 the usefulness of conducting multiple-species pilot studies prior to initiating detailed studies on 32 pesticide effects. A study such as ours can help focus research and resources on study species 33 that are most appropriate.

  3. [New species, newly used names and new ranges of tree ferns (Filicales: Cyatheaceae) in the Neotropics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas-Alvarado, A F

    2001-06-01

    Two new species are described for the Neotropics, four species are newly accepted, and four species and one variety are reported. The new species are: Cyathea grayumii A. Rojas and C. panamensis A. Rojas. Cyathea alfonsiana L. D. Gómez, C. holdridgeana Nisman & L. D. Gómez, C. onusta H. Christ and C. squarrosa (Rosenst.) Domin are recognized; Cnemidaria coclena Stolze, Cyathea andina (H. Karst.) Domin, C. caracasana var. meridensis (H. Karst.) R. M. Tryon, C. macrosora (Baker) Domin and C. pseudonanna (L. D. Gómez) Lellinger are reported from Costa Rica and Panama.

  4. Theoretical predictions of arsenic and selenium species under atmospheric conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monahan-Pendergast, M.T.; Przybylek, M.; Lindblad, M.; Wilcox, J. [Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2008-03-15

    Thermochemical properties of arsenic and selenium species thought to be released into the atmosphere during the coal combustion were examined using ab initio methods. At various levels of theory, calculated geometries and vibrational frequencies of the species were compared with experimental data, where available. Through a comparison of equilibrium constants for a series of gaseous arsenic and selenium oxidation reactions involving OH and HO{sub 2}, five thermodynamically favored reactions were found. In addition, it was determined that all favored reactions were more likely to go to completion tinder tropospheric, rather than stratospheric, conditions.

  5. Identification of the same polyomavirus species in different African horseshoe bat species is indicative of short-range host-switching events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Michael; Gonzalez, Gabriel; Sasaki, Michihito; Dool, Serena E; Ito, Kimihito; Ishii, Akihiro; Hang'ombe, Bernard M; Mweene, Aaron S; Teeling, Emma C; Hall, William W; Orba, Yasuko; Sawa, Hirofumi

    2017-10-06

    Polyomaviruses (PyVs) are considered to be highly host-specific in different mammalian species, with no well-supported evidence for host-switching events. We examined the species diversity and host specificity of PyVs in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.), a broadly distributed and highly speciose mammalian genus. We annotated six PyV genomes, comprising four new PyV species, based on pairwise identity within the large T antigen (LTAg) coding region. Phylogenetic comparisons revealed two instances of highly related PyV species, one in each of the Alphapolyomavirus and Betapolyomavirus genera, present in different horseshoe bat host species (Rhinolophus blasii and R. simulator), suggestive of short-range host-switching events. The two pairs of Rhinolophus PyVs in different horseshoe bat host species were 99.9 and 88.8 % identical with each other over their respective LTAg coding sequences and thus constitute the same virus species. To corroborate the species identification of the bat hosts, we analysed mitochondrial cytb and a large nuclear intron dataset derived from six independent and neutrally evolving loci for bat taxa of interest. Bayesian estimates of the ages of the most recent common ancestors suggested that the near-identical and more distantly related PyV species diverged approximately 9.1E4 (5E3-2.8E5) and 9.9E6 (4E6-18E6) years before the present, respectively, in contrast to the divergence times of the bat host species: 12.4E6 (10.4E6-15.4E6). Our findings provide evidence that short-range host-switching of PyVs is possible in horseshoe bats, suggesting that PyV transmission between closely related mammalian species can occur.

  6. Host range, host ecology, and distribution of more than 11800 fish parasite species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strona, Giovanni; Palomares, Maria Lourdes D.; Bailly, Nicholas; Galli, Paolo; Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2013-01-01

    Our data set includes 38 008 fish parasite records (for Acanthocephala, Cestoda, Monogenea, Nematoda, Trematoda) compiled from the scientific literature, Internet databases, and museum collections paired to the corresponding host ecological, biogeographical, and phylogenetic traits (maximum length, growth rate, life span, age at maturity, trophic level, habitat preference, geographical range size, taxonomy). The data focus on host features, because specific parasite traits are not consistently available across records. For this reason, the data set is intended as a flexible resource able to extend the principles of ecological niche modeling to the host–parasite system, providing researchers with the data to model parasite niches based on their distribution in host species and the associated host features. In this sense, the database offers a framework for testing general ecological, biogeographical, and phylogenetic hypotheses based on the identification of hosts as parasite habitat. Potential applications of the data set are, for example, the investigation of species–area relationships or the taxonomic distribution of host-specificity. The provided host–parasite list is that currently used by Fish Parasite Ecology Software Tool (FishPEST, http://purl.oclc.org/fishpest), which is a website that allows researchers to model several aspects of the relationships between fish parasites and their hosts. The database is intended for researchers who wish to have more freedom to analyze the database than currently possible with FishPEST. However, for readers who have not seen FishPEST, we recommend using this as a starting point for interacting with the database.

  7. Intermediate-term middle-range predictions in Italy: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V.; Romashkova, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2003-11-01

    The Italian territory has been object of several studies devoted to the analysis of seismicity and to earthquake precursors' research. Although a number of observations have been claimed to precede large earthquakes, only few systematic studies have been carried out and almost no test of their performances is available up to now. In this paper we review the application to the Italian territory of two formally defined intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms, namely CN and M8S. The general methodology common to the two different algorithms makes use of general concepts of pattern recognition that permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors, and allows for a systematic monitoring of seismicity, as well as for a widespread testing of the prediction performances. Italy represents the only region of moderate seismic activity where the M8S and CN algorithms are applied simultaneously for the routine monitoring. Significant efforts have been made to minimize the intrinsic space uncertainty of predictions and the subjectivity of the definition of the areas where precursors should be identified. Several experiments have been dedicated to assess the robustness of the methodology against the unavoidable uncertainties in the data. With these results acquired, predictions are routinely issued by CN algorithm, since January 1998, and by M8S algorithm, since January 2002. Starting in July 2003 an experiment has been launched for the real-time test of M8S and CN predictions. (author)

  8. Predicting animal production on sourveld: a species-based approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model was based upon measured ingestive and digestive characteristics of different grass species and incorporates an explicit digestive constraint based upon rumen mass and turnover rate. Illustrates with graphs, diagrams and tables. Keywords: ADG; Andropogon appendiculatus; Average daily gain; Cattle; Cynodon ...

  9. Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Emilien; Lenoir, Jonathan; Piedallu, Christian; Gégout, Jean-Claude

    2016-06-01

    Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terribile, Levi Carina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2012-01-01

    uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles...... continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation....

  11. Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Non-indigenous plant species and their ecological range in Central European pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests

    OpenAIRE

    Zerbe , Stefan; Wirth , Petra

    2006-01-01

    International audience; In this study, forest ecosystems were analysed with regard to the occurrence and ecological range of non-indigenous plant species. Pine forests in the NE German lowland, which naturally and anthropogenically occur on a broad range of different sites, were taken as an example. The analysis is based on a data set of about 2 300 vegetation plots. The ecological range was assessed applying Ellenberg's ecological indicator values. Out of a total of 362 taxa recorded in the ...

  13. How predictability of feeding patches affects home range and foraging habitat selection in avian social scavengers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Monsarrat

    Full Text Available Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands Causses (France, a reintroduced population of Griffon vultures Gyps fulvus can find carcasses at three types of sites: 1. "light feeding stations", where farmers can drop carcasses at their farm (spatially predictable, 2. "heavy feeding stations", where carcasses from nearby farms are concentrated (spatially and temporally predictable and 3. open grasslands, where resources are randomly distributed (unpredictable. The impact of feeding stations on vulture's foraging behaviour was investigated using 28 GPS-tracked vultures. The average home range size was maximal in spring (1272 ± 752 km(2 and minimal in winter (473 ± 237 km(2 and was highly variable among individuals. Analyses of home range characteristics and feeding habitat selection via compositional analysis showed that feeding stations were always preferred compared to the rest of the habitat where vultures can find unpredictable resources. Feeding stations were particularly used when resources were scarce (summer or when flight conditions were poor (winter, limiting long-ranging movements. However, when flight conditions were optimal, home ranges also encompassed large areas of grassland where vultures could find unpredictable resources, suggesting that vultures did not lose their natural ability to forage on unpredictable resources, even when feeding stations were available. However during seasons when food abundance and flight conditions were not limited, vultures seemed to favour light over heavy feeding stations, probably because of the reduced intraspecific competition and a pattern closer to the natural dispersion of resources in the landscape. Light feeding stations are interesting tools

  14. How predictability of feeding patches affects home range and foraging habitat selection in avian social scavengers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Benhamou, Simon; Sarrazin, François; Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Bouten, Willem; Duriez, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands Causses (France), a reintroduced population of Griffon vultures Gyps fulvus can find carcasses at three types of sites: 1. "light feeding stations", where farmers can drop carcasses at their farm (spatially predictable), 2. "heavy feeding stations", where carcasses from nearby farms are concentrated (spatially and temporally predictable) and 3. open grasslands, where resources are randomly distributed (unpredictable). The impact of feeding stations on vulture's foraging behaviour was investigated using 28 GPS-tracked vultures. The average home range size was maximal in spring (1272 ± 752 km(2)) and minimal in winter (473 ± 237 km(2)) and was highly variable among individuals. Analyses of home range characteristics and feeding habitat selection via compositional analysis showed that feeding stations were always preferred compared to the rest of the habitat where vultures can find unpredictable resources. Feeding stations were particularly used when resources were scarce (summer) or when flight conditions were poor (winter), limiting long-ranging movements. However, when flight conditions were optimal, home ranges also encompassed large areas of grassland where vultures could find unpredictable resources, suggesting that vultures did not lose their natural ability to forage on unpredictable resources, even when feeding stations were available. However during seasons when food abundance and flight conditions were not limited, vultures seemed to favour light over heavy feeding stations, probably because of the reduced intraspecific competition and a pattern closer to the natural dispersion of resources in the landscape. Light feeding stations are interesting tools for managing

  15. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valladares, Fernando; Matesanz, Silvia; Guilhaumon, François; Araújo, Miguel B; Balaguer, Luis; Benito-Garzón, Marta; Cornwell, Will; Gianoli, Ernesto; van Kleunen, Mark; Naya, Daniel E; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Poorter, Hendrik; Zavala, Miguel A

    2014-11-01

    Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  16. Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, D H; Scheringer, M; McKone, T E; Hungerbühler, K

    2001-03-15

    The United Nations Environment Program has recently developed criteria to identify and restrict chemicals with a potential for persistence and long-range transport (persistent organic pollutants or POPs). There are many stakeholders involved, and the issues are not only scientific but also include social, economic, and political factors. This work focuses on one aspect of the POPs debate, the criteria for determining the potential for long-range transport (LRT). Our goal is to determine if current models are reliable enough to support decisions that classify a chemical based on the LRT potential. We examine the robustness of two multimedia fate models for determining the relative ranking and absolute spatial range of various chemicals in the environment. We also consider the effect of parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainty associated with the selection of an algorithm for gas-particle partitioning on the model results. Given the same chemical properties, both models give virtually the same ranking. However, when chemical parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties such as particle partitioning are considered, the spatial range distributions obtained for the individual chemicals overlap, preventing a distinct rank order. The absolute values obtained for the predicted spatial range or travel distance differ significantly between the two models for the uncertainties evaluated. We find that to evaluate a chemical when large and unresolved uncertainties exist, it is more informative to use two or more models and include multiple types of uncertainty. Model differences and uncertainties must be explicitly confronted to determine how the limitations of scientific knowledge impact predictions in the decision-making process.

  17. Comparative hydraulic architecture of tropical tree species representing a range of successional stages and wood density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCulloh, Katherine A; Meinzer, Frederick C; Sperry, John S; Lachenbruch, Barbara; Voelker, Steven L; Woodruff, David R; Domec, Jean-Christophe

    2011-09-01

    Plant hydraulic architecture (PHA) has been linked to water transport sufficiency, photosynthetic rates, growth form and attendant carbon allocation. Despite its influence on traits central to conferring an overall competitive advantage in a given environment, few studies have examined whether key aspects of PHA are indicative of successional stage, especially within mature individuals. While it is well established that wood density (WD) tends to be lower in early versus late successional tree species, and that WD can influence other aspects of PHA, the interaction of WD, successional stage and the consequent implications for PHA have not been sufficiently explored. Here, we studied differences in PHA at the scales of wood anatomy to whole-tree hydraulic conductance in species in early versus late successional Panamanian tropical forests. Although the trunk WD was indistinguishable between the successional groups, the branch WD was lower in the early successional species. Across all species, WD correlated negatively with vessel diameter and positively with vessel packing density. The ratio of branch:trunk vessel diameter, branch sap flux and whole-tree leaf-specific conductance scaled negatively with branch WD across species. Pioneer species showed greater sap flux in branches than in trunks and a greater leaf-specific hydraulic conductance, suggesting that pioneer species can move greater quantities of water at a given tension gradient. In combination with the greater water storage capacitance associated with lower WD, these results suggest these pioneer species can save on the carbon expenditure needed to build safer xylem and instead allow more carbon to be allocated to rapid growth.

  18. Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2014-12-01

    Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

  19. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

    1998-01-01

    Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth?s biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information...

  20. Species contributions to single biodiversity values under-estimate whole community contribution to a wider range of values to society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiron, Matthew; Pärt, Tomas; Siriwardena, Gavin M; Whittingham, Mark J

    2018-05-03

    A major task for decision makers is deciding how to consider monetary, cultural and conservation values of biodiversity explicitly when planning sustainable land use. Thus, there is a great need to understand just what "valuing" biodiversity or species really means, e.g. regarding how many and which species are important in providing ecosystem services or other values. Constructing ecosystem-level indices, however, requires weighting the relative contribution of species to the different values. Using farmland birds, we illustrate how species contribute to different biodiversity values, namely utilitarian (pest seed predation potential), cultural (species occurrence in poetry), conservational (declines and rarity) and inherent (all species equal) value. Major contributions to each value are often made by a subset of the community and different species are important for different values, leading to no correlations or, in some cases, negative correlations between species' relative contributions to different values. Our results and methods using relative contributions of species to biodiversity values can aid decisions when weighing different values in policies and strategies for natural resource management. We conclude that acknowledging the importance of the range of biodiversity values that are apparent from different perspectives is critical if the full value of biodiversity to society is to be realised.

  1. Predicting commuter flows in spatial networks using a radiation model based on temporal ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yihui; Ercsey-Ravasz, Mária; Wang, Pu; González, Marta C.; Toroczkai, Zoltán

    2014-11-01

    Understanding network flows such as commuter traffic in large transportation networks is an ongoing challenge due to the complex nature of the transportation infrastructure and human mobility. Here we show a first-principles based method for traffic prediction using a cost-based generalization of the radiation model for human mobility, coupled with a cost-minimizing algorithm for efficient distribution of the mobility fluxes through the network. Using US census and highway traffic data, we show that traffic can efficiently and accurately be computed from a range-limited, network betweenness type calculation. The model based on travel time costs captures the log-normal distribution of the traffic and attains a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.75) when compared with real traffic. Because of its principled nature, this method can inform many applications related to human mobility driven flows in spatial networks, ranging from transportation, through urban planning to mitigation of the effects of catastrophic events.

  2. Species richness of vascular plants along the climatic range of the Spanish dehesas at two spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose M. Garcia del Barrio

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aims of study: The goals of this paper are to summarize and to compare plant species richness and floristic similarity at two spatial scales; mesohabitat (normal, eutrophic, and oligotrophic dehesas and dehesa habitat; and to establish guidelines for conserving species diversity in dehesas.Area of study: We considered four dehesa sites in the western Peninsular Spain, located along a climatic and biogeographic gradient from north to south. Main results: Average alpha richness for mesohabitats was 75.6 species, and average alpha richness for dehesa sites was 146.3. Gamma richness assessed for the overall dehesa habitat was 340.0 species. The species richness figures of normal dehesa mesohabitat were significantly lesser than of the eutrophic mesohabitat and lesser than the oligotrophic mesohabitat too. No significant differences were found for species richness among dehesa sites. We have found more dissimilarity at local scale (mesohabitat than at regional scale (habitat. Finally, the results of the similarity assessment between dehesa sites reflected both climatic and biogeographic gradients.Research highlights: An effective conservation of dehesas must take into account local and regional conditions all along their distribution range for ensuring the conservation of the main vascular plant species assemblages as well as the associated fauna.Keywords: Agroforestry systems; mesohabitat; non-parametric estimators; alpha richness; gamma richness; floristic similarity; climatic and biogeographic range.

  3. [Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

    2013-05-01

    Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

  4. Predicting the presence and cover of management relevant invasive plant species on protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacona, Gwenllian; Price, Franklin D; Armsworth, Paul R

    2016-01-15

    Invasive species are a management concern on protected areas worldwide. Conservation managers need to predict infestations of invasive plants they aim to treat if they want to plan for long term management. Many studies predict the presence of invasive species, but predictions of cover are more relevant for management. Here we examined how predictors of invasive plant presence and cover differ across species that vary in their management priority. To do so, we used data on management effort and cover of invasive plant species on central Florida protected areas. Using a zero-inflated multiple regression framework, we showed that protected area features can predict the presence and cover of the focal species but the same features rarely explain both. There were several predictors of either presence or cover that were important across multiple species. Protected areas with three days of frost per year or fewer were more likely to have occurrences of four of the six focal species. When invasive plants were present, their proportional cover was greater on small preserves for all species, and varied with surrounding household density for three species. None of the predictive features were clearly related to whether species were prioritized for management or not. Our results suggest that predictors of cover and presence can differ both within and across species but do not covary with management priority. We conclude that conservation managers need to select predictors of invasion with care as species identity can determine the relationship between predictors of presence and the more management relevant predictors of cover. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Variability in leaf optical properties among 26 species from a broad range of habitats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, A.K.; Carter, G.A.

    1998-01-01

    Leaves from 26 species with growth forms from annual herbs to trees were collected from open, intermediate, and shaded understory habitats in Mississippi and Kansas, USA. Leaf optical properties including reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance in visible and near infrared (NIR) wavelengths were measured along with leaf thickness and specific leaf mass (SLM). These leaf properties and internal light scattering have been reported to vary with light availability in studies that have focused on a limited number of species. Our objective was to determine whether these patterns in leaf optics and light availability were consistent when a greater number of species were evaluated. Leaf thickness and SLM varied by tenfold among species sampled, but within-habitat variance was high. Although there was a strong trend toward thicker leaves in open habitats, only SLM was significantly greater in open vs. understory habitats. In contrast, leaf optical properties were strikingly similar among habitats. Reflectance and reflectance/transmittance in the NIR were used to estimate internal light scattering and there were strong relationships (r2 0.65) between these optical properties and leaf thickness. We concluded that leaf thickness, which did not vary consistently among habitats, was the best predictor of NIR reflectance and internal light scattering. However, because carbon allocation to leaves was lower in understory species (low SLM) yet gross optical properties were similar among all habitats, the energy investment by shade leaves required to achieve optical equivalence with sun leaves was lower. Differences in leaf longevity and growth form within a habitat may help explain the lack of consistent patterns in leaf optics as the number of species sampled increases

  6. Prediction of kharif rice yield at Kharagpur using disaggregated extended range rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhekale, B. S.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Nair, Archana; Mohanty, U. C.; Swain, D. K.; Singh, K. K.; Arunbabu, T.

    2017-08-01

    The Extended Range Forecasts System (ERFS) has been generating monthly and seasonal forecasts on real-time basis throughout the year over India since 2009. India is one of the major rice producer and consumer in South Asia; more than 50% of the Indian population depends on rice as staple food. Rice is mainly grown in kharif season, which contributed 84% of the total annual rice production of the country. Rice cultivation in India is rainfed, which depends largely on rains, so reliability of the rainfall forecast plays a crucial role for planning the kharif rice crop. In the present study, an attempt has been made to test the reliability of seasonal and sub-seasonal ERFS summer monsoon rainfall forecasts for kharif rice yield predictions at Kharagpur, West Bengal by using CERES-Rice (DSSATv4.5) model. These ERFS forecasts are produced as monthly and seasonal mean values and are converted into daily sequences with stochastic weather generators for use with crop growth models. The daily sequences are generated from ERFS seasonal (June-September) and sub-seasonal (July-September, August-September, and September) summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall forecasts which are considered as input in CERES-rice crop simulation model for the crop yield prediction for hindcast (1985-2008) and real-time mode (2009-2015). The yield simulated using India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed daily rainfall data is considered as baseline yield for evaluating the performance of predicted yields using the ERFS forecasts. The findings revealed that the stochastic disaggregation can be used to disaggregate the monthly/seasonal ERFS forecasts into daily sequences. The year to year variability in rice yield at Kharagpur is efficiently predicted by using the ERFS forecast products in hindcast as well as real time, and significant enhancement in the prediction skill is noticed with advancement in the season due to incorporation of observed weather data which reduces uncertainty of

  7. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

    2018-09-01

    Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the

  9. Impacts of biogeographic history and marginal population genetics on species range limits: a case study of Liriodendron chinense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Aihong; Dick, Christopher W; Yao, Xiaohong; Huang, Hongwen

    2016-05-10

    Species ranges are influenced by past climate oscillations, geographical constraints, and adaptive potential to colonize novel habitats at range limits. This study used Liriodendron chinense, an important temperate Asian tree species, as a model system to evaluate the roles of biogeographic history and marginal population genetics in determining range limits. We examined the demographic history and genetic diversity of 29 L. chinense populations using both chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite loci. Significant phylogeographic structure was recovered with haplotype clusters coinciding with major mountain regions. Long-term demographical stability was suggested by mismatch distribution analyses, neutrality tests, and ecological niche models (ENM) and suggested the existence of LGM refuges within mountain regions. Differences in genetic diversity between central and marginal populations were not significant for either genomic region. However, asymmetrical gene flow was inferred from central populations to marginal populations, which could potentially limit range adaptation and expansion of L. chinense.

  10. species live in a characteristic limited range of habitats and, within

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    spamer

    Patch dynamics and stability of some California kelp com- munities. Ecol. .... Evol. 5: 52–57. MENGE, B. A. and J. P. SUTHERLAND 1976 — Species diversity ... PALUMBI, S. R. 1984 — Measurement of intertidal wave forces. J. expl mar. Biol.

  11. A Palaearctic migratory raptor species tracks shifting prey availability within its wintering range in the Sahel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trierweiler, Christiane; Mullie, Wim C.; Drent, Rudi H.; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Komdeur, Jan; Bairlein, Franz; Harouna, Abdoulaye; de Bakker, Marinus; Koks, Ben J.

    Mid-winter movements of up to several hundreds of kilometres are typical for many migratory bird species wintering in Africa. Unpredictable temporary food concentrations are thought to result in random movements of such birds, whereas resightings and recoveries of marked birds suggest some degree of

  12. Two new species of Japalura (Squamata: Agamidae) from the Hengduan Mountain Range, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kai; Jiang, Ke; Zou, Da-Hu; Yan, Fang; Siler, Cameron D; Che, Jing

    2016-01-18

    Until recently, the agamid species, Japalura flaviceps, was recognized to have the widest geographic distribution among members of the genus occurring in China, from eastern Tibet to Shaanxi Province. However, recent studies restricted the distribution of J. flaviceps to the Dadu River valley only in northwestern Sichuan Province, suggesting that records of J. flaviceps outside the Dadu River valley likely represent undescribed diversity. During two herpetofaunal surveys in 2013 and 2015, eight and 12 specimens of lizards of the genus Japalura were collected from the upper Nujiang (=Salween) Valley in eastern Tibet, China, and upper Lancang (=Mekong) Valley in northwestern Yunnan, China, respectively. These specimens display a unique suite of diagnostic morphological characters. Our robust comparisons of phenotype reveal that these populations can be distinguished readily from J. flaviceps and all other recognized congeners. Herein, we describe the two Japalura lineages as new species, Japalura laeviventris sp. nov. and Japalura iadina sp. nov.. In addition, we provide updated conservation assessments for the new species as well as imperiled congeners according to the IUCN criteria for classification, discuss the importance of color patterns in the diagnosis and description of species in the genus Japalura, and discuss directions for future taxonomic studies of the group.

  13. Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Lutz; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; Jerry F. Franklin

    2010-01-01

    Modelled changes in climate water deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola...

  14. Models of alien species richness show moderate predictive accuracy and poor transferability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Capinha

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Robust predictions of alien species richness are useful to assess global biodiversity change. Nevertheless, the capacity to predict spatial patterns of alien species richness remains largely unassessed. Using 22 data sets of alien species richness from diverse taxonomic groups and covering various parts of the world, we evaluated whether different statistical models were able to provide useful predictions of absolute and relative alien species richness, as a function of explanatory variables representing geographical, environmental and socio-economic factors. Five state-of-the-art count data modelling techniques were used and compared: Poisson and negative binomial generalised linear models (GLMs, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, random forests (RF and boosted regression trees (BRT. We found that predictions of absolute alien species richness had a low to moderate accuracy in the region where the models were developed and a consistently poor accuracy in new regions. Predictions of relative richness performed in a superior manner in both geographical settings, but still were not good. Flexible tree ensembles-type techniques (RF and BRT were shown to be significantly better in modelling alien species richness than parametric linear models (such as GLM, despite the latter being more commonly applied for this purpose. Importantly, the poor spatial transferability of models also warrants caution in assuming the generality of the relationships they identify, e.g. by applying projections under future scenario conditions. Ultimately, our results strongly suggest that predictability of spatial variation in richness of alien species richness is limited. The somewhat more robust ability to rank regions according to the number of aliens they have (i.e. relative richness, suggests that models of aliens species richness may be useful for prioritising and comparing regions, but not for predicting exact species numbers.

  15. Wrong, but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range-wide data under biased sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gabbas, Ahmed; Dormann, Carsten F

    2018-02-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence-only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species-specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point-process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor ("prior") to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias-free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data

  16. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...

  17. Can nutrient status of four woody plant species be predicted using field spectrometry?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferwerda, J.G.; Skidmore, A.K.

    2007-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the potential of hyperspectral remote sensing to predict the chemical composition (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorous, calcium, potassium, sodium, and magnesium) of three tree species (i.e., willow, mopane and olive) and one shrub species (i.e., heather). Reflectance spectra,

  18. Novel view on predicting acute toxicity: Decomposing toxicity data in species vulnerability and chemical potency.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, D.T.; Posthuma, L.; Zwart, D.D.; van de Meent, D.

    2007-01-01

    Chemical risk assessment usually applies empirical methods to predict toxicant effects on different species. We propose a more mechanism-oriented approach, and introduce a method to decompose toxicity data in a contribution from the chemical (potency) and from the exposed species (vulnerability). We

  19. Species identification of tephritids across a broad taxonomic range using ribosomal D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Karen F; Cameron, Charlotte M.

    2000-01-01

    International trade and passenger travel are significant factors in the spread of economically important fruit fly species. The risk of accidental introduction via infested fruit is high, and in New Zealand the recent Medfly incursion in Auckland demonstrated the reality of this threat (Frampton, 2000). There are no economically important species of fruit fly established in New Zealand at present, but 31 are considered high risk in terms of their potential colonisation (refer to the Biosecurity (Notifiable Organisms) Amendment Order 1997). These are amongst a background of non-pest and low risk pest species that may also arrive in fruit from neighbouring countries or trading partners. Quarantine officials closely monitor fruit fly host material at the New Zealand borders (Frampton, 2000). In terms of the action to be taken should an infestation be discovered, there is significant benefit from being able to accurately identify species from the immature life stages, or at least to distinguish the high and low risk groups (Armstrong et al. 1997a). The need for this quarantine application was also highlighted by White (1996) at the previous fruit fly symposium in Sand Keys, Florida, where he summarised the advances made in larval taxonomy over the last decade. Despite this, morphological keys such as those of Steck et al. (1990) and White and Elson Harris (1992), are still only available for about a third of ca. 250 pest species. For those species, even so, identification is not easy and only possible for good quality late instar larvae; there are no morphological characters for early instars or eggs. Until recently in New Zealand, the identification of immature life stages depended entirely on rearing through to adults. This was time consuming and often unsuccessful (Armstrong et al. 1997b). A rapid molecular technique has since been described as a feasible alternative or supplementary quarantine tool (Armstrong et al. 1997a). The method is based on the polymerase

  20. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

  1. Examination as to the classification of representative tree species at Satoyama coppice forest using multiwavelength range data observed from aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setojima, M.; Imai, Y.; Funahashi, M.; Kawai, M.; Katsuki, T.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, we examined the possibility of classifying representative tree species at Satoyama coppice forest based on spectral reflectance of the tree species. We used the airborne hyperspectral data observed in exhibition leaf stage at the test forest (about 3.4ha) in Tama Forest Science Garden (Hachioji, Tokyo) , where the forest type similar to that of Satoyama is preserved. The classification accuracy was verified by comparing the results of interpretation of color aerial photographs taken in spring and autumn in chronological order and the field survey. As a result, the 534-556 nm (band 6 and band 7) in the visible range and 739-762 nm (band 15 and band 16), 785nm (band 17) in the near infrared range are effective bands for classification of the species of such trees as Castanopsis sieboldii, Quercus glauca, Zelkova serrata, Quercus serrata, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obutusa, which are representative trees in Satoyama coppice forest in Tama district

  2. A new species of Ormocerus Walker (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) from North America and a range expansion for Ormocerus latus Walker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormocerus dirigoius, n. sp. is described and compared to the North American O. americanus Dzhanokmen and Grissell and European species O. latus Walker and O. vernalis Walker. A range expansion into the Nearctic is reported for O. latus, previously only known from the Palearctic. Specimens were colle...

  3. The potential of selected macroalgal species for treatment of AMD at different pH ranges in temperate regions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oberholster, Paul J

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The metal bioaccumulation potential of selected macroalgae species at different pH ranges was study for usage as part of a possible secondary passive acid mine drainage (AMD) treatment technology in algae ponds. Two separate studies were conducted...

  4. Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

    2013-10-01

    Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

  5. Fine-spatial scale predictions of understory species using climate- and LiDAR-derived terrain and canopy metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijland, Wiebe; Nielsen, Scott E.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Wulder, Michael A.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

    2014-01-01

    Food and habitat resources are critical components of wildlife management and conservation efforts. The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) has diverse diets and habitat requirements particularly for understory plant species, which are impacted by human developments and forest management activities. We use light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to predict the occurrence of 14 understory plant species relevant to bear forage and compare our predictions with more conventional climate- and land cover-based models. We use boosted regression trees to model each of the 14 understory species across 4435 km2 using occurrence (presence-absence) data from 1941 field plots. Three sets of models were fitted: climate only, climate and basic land and forest covers from Landsat 30-m imagery, and a climate- and LiDAR-derived model describing both the terrain and forest canopy. Resulting model accuracies varied widely among species. Overall, 8 of 14 species models were improved by including the LiDAR-derived variables. For climate-only models, mean annual precipitation and frost-free periods were the most important variables. With inclusion of LiDAR-derived attributes, depth-to-water table, terrain-intercepted annual radiation, and elevation were most often selected. This suggests that fine-scale terrain conditions affect the distribution of the studied species more than canopy conditions.

  6. DETOMIDINE AND BUTORPHANOL FOR STANDING SEDATION IN A RANGE OF ZOO-KEPT UNGULATE SPECIES

    OpenAIRE

    Bouts, Tim; Dodds, Joanne; Berry, Karla; Arif, Abdi; Taylor, Polly; Routh, Andrew; Gasthuys, Frank

    2017-01-01

    General anesthesia poses risks for larger zoo species, like cardiorespiratory depression, myopathy, and hyperthermia. In ruminants, ruminal bloat and regurgitation of rumen contents with potential aspiration pneumonia are added risks. Thus, the use of sedation to perform minor procedures is justified in zoo animals. A combination of detomidine and butorphanol has been routinely used in domestic animals. This drug combination, administered by remote intramuscular injection, can also be applied...

  7. Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Périé

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range in Quebec (Canada rather than opportunities (increase in suitability. Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

  8. Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

  9. What Limits the Distribution of Liriomyza huidobrensis and Its Congener Liriomyza sativae in Their Native Niche: When Temperature and Competition Affect Species' Distribution Range in Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Castañeda, G; MacVean, C; Cardona, C; Hof, A R

    2017-07-01

    Factors limiting distribution range for most species are generally unknown regardless of whether they are native or invasive. We studied factors that could enable or restrict the distribution of two cosmopolitan invasive leafminer fly species, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) and Liriomyza sativae (Blanchard) in their native niche. In order to test which ecological and environmental factors affect leafminer distribution we conducted thermal tolerance assays, sampled along elevation gradients and modeled species distribution. Findings from the field and rearing chambers showed a physiological restriction due to high temperatures for L. huidobrensis at 28-29 °C, above which adult emergence is compromised. We also found that maximum temperatures below 22 °C, typical of tropical highlands, favored L. huidobrensis. L. sativae was found across a wider temperature range (i.e., from 21 to 36 °C) in Guatemala. Our finding of a physiological threshold in temperature for L. huidobrensis may enable us to predict its invasive risk when combined with the environmental conditions at horticultural ports of entry and the global agricultural landscape. Further, it strengthens our predictions on shifts in distribution of the leafminer fly under future climate. We also found a temperature mediated competitive exclusion interaction between the two herbivore species, where L. sativae occurred at temperatures < 22 °C only in the absence of L. huidobrensis. We show that parasitoids had a negative effect on the leafminer flies, which varied with host plant. Finally, we show the importance of taking a multiaspect approach when investigating what limits distribution and invasiveness of a species. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

  10. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  11. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-12-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and

  12. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  13. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  14. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  15. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  16. Prediction of the metabolizable energy requirements of free-range laying hens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainer, M M A; Rabello, C B V; Santos, M J B; Lopes, C C; Ludke, J V; Silva, J H V; Lima, R A

    2016-01-01

    This experiment was conducted with the aim of estimating the ME requirements of free-range laying hens for maintenance, weight gain, and egg production. These experiments were performed to develop an energy requirement prediction equation by using the comparative slaughter technique and the total excreta collection method. Regression equations were used to relate the energy intake, the energy retained in the body and eggs, and the heat production of the hens. These relationships were used to determine the daily ME requirement for maintenance, the efficiency energy utilization above the requirements for maintenance, and the NE requirement for maintenance. The requirement for weight gain was estimated from the energy content of the carcass, and the diet's efficiency energy utilization was determined from the weight gain, which was measured during weekly slaughter. The requirement for egg production was estimated by considering the energy content of the eggs and the efficiency of energy deposition in the eggs. The requirement and efficiency energy utilization for maintenance were 121.8 kcal ME/(kg∙d)and 0.68, respectively. Similarly, the NE requirement for maintenance was 82.4 kcal ME/(kg∙d), and the efficiency energy utilization above maintenance was 0.61. Because the carcass body weight and energy did not increase during the trial, the weight gain could not be estimated. The requirements for egg production requirement and efficiency energy utilization for egg production were 2.48 kcal/g and 0.61, respectively. The following energy prediction equation for free-range laying hens (without weight gain) was developed: ME /(hen ∙ d) = 121.8 × W + 2.48 × EM, in which W = body weight (kg) and EM = egg mass (g/[hen ∙ d]).

  17. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firn, Jennifer; Moore, Joslin L.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Seabloom, Eric W.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harpole, W. Stanley; Cleland, Elsa E.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Knops, Johannes M.H.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Pyke, David A.; Farrell, Kelly A.; Bakker, John D.; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Adler, Peter B.; Collins, Scott L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Crawley, Michael J.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Hautier, Yann; Morgan, John W.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kay, Adam; McCulley, Rebecca; Davies, Kendi F.; Stevens, Carly J.; Chu, Cheng-Jin; Holl, Karen D.; Klein, Julia A.; Fay, Phillip A.; Hagenah, Nicole; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Buckley, Yvonne M.

    2011-01-01

    Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites - grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

  18. Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sattler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

  19. Application of long-range order to predict unfolding rates of two-state proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harihar, B; Selvaraj, S

    2011-03-01

    Predicting the experimental unfolding rates of two-state proteins and models describing the unfolding rates of these proteins is quite limited because of the complexity present in the unfolding mechanism and the lack of experimental unfolding data compared with folding data. In this work, 25 two-state proteins characterized by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616) using a consensus set of experimental conditions were taken, and the parameter long-range order (LRO) derived from their three-dimensional structures were related with their experimental unfolding rates ln(k(u)). From the total data set of 30 proteins used by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616), five slow-unfolding proteins with very low unfolding rates were considered to be outliers and were not included in our data set. Except all beta structural class, LRO of both the all-alpha and mixed-class proteins showed a strong inverse correlation of r = -0.99 and -0.88, respectively, with experimental ln(k(u)). LRO shows a correlation of -0.62 with experimental ln(k(u)) for all-beta proteins. For predicting the unfolding rates, a simple statistical method has been used and linear regression equations were developed for individual structural classes of proteins using LRO, and the results obtained showed a better agreement with experimental results. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. New insights into the evolution of Wolbachia infections in filarial nematodes inferred from a large range of screened species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuele Ferri

    Full Text Available Wolbachia are intriguing symbiotic endobacteria with a peculiar host range that includes arthropods and a single nematode family, the Onchocercidae encompassing agents of filariases. This raises the question of the origin of infection in filariae. Wolbachia infect the female germline and the hypodermis. Some evidences lead to the theory that Wolbachia act as mutualist and coevolved with filariae from one infection event: their removal sterilizes female filariae; all the specimens of a positive species are infected; Wolbachia are vertically inherited; a few species lost the symbiont. However, most data on Wolbachia and filaria relationships derive from studies on few species of Onchocercinae and Dirofilariinae, from mammals.We investigated the Wolbachia distribution testing 35 filarial species, including 28 species and 7 genera and/or subgenera newly screened, using PCR, immunohistochemical staining, whole mount fluorescent analysis, and cocladogenesis analysis. (i Among the newly screened Onchocercinae from mammals eight species harbour Wolbachia but for some of them, bacteria are absent in the hypodermis, or in variable density. (ii Wolbachia are not detected in the pathological model Monanema martini and in 8, upon 9, species of Cercopithifilaria. (iii Supergroup F Wolbachia is identified in two newly screened Mansonella species and in Cercopithifilaria japonica. (iv Type F Wolbachia infect the intestinal cells and somatic female genital tract. (v Among Oswaldofilariinae, Waltonellinae and Splendidofilariinae, from saurian, anuran and bird respectively, Wolbachia are not detected.The absence of Wolbachia in 63% of onchocercids, notably in the ancestral Oswaldofilariinae estimated 140 mya old, the diverse tissues or specimens distribution, and a recent lateral transfer in supergroup F Wolbachia, modify the current view on the role and evolution of the endosymbiont and their hosts. Further genomic analyses on some of the newly sampled species

  1. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

  2. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae, a widespread agricultural pest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine N Meynard

    Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive

  3. Relative tolerance of a range of Australian native plant species and lettuce to copper, zinc, cadmium, and lead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Dane T; Ming, Hui; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

    2010-10-01

    The tolerance of wild flora to heavy-metal exposure has received very little research. In this study, the tolerance of four native tree species, four native grass species, and lettuce to copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) was investigated in a root-elongation study using Petri dishes. The results of these studies show a diverse range of responses to Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb amongst the tested plant species. Toxicity among metals decreased in the following order: Cd ~ Cu > Pb > Zn. Metal concentrations resulting in a 50% reduction in growth (EC(50)) varied considerably, ranging from (microM) 30 (Dichanthium sericeum) to >2000 (Acacia spp.) for Cu; from 260 (Lactuca sativa) to 2000 (Acacia spp.) for Zn; from 27 (L. sativa) to 940 (Acacia holosericea) for Cd; and from 180 (L. sativa) to >1000 (Acacia spp.) for Pb. Sensitive native plant species identified included D. sericeum, Casuarina cunninghamiana, and Austrodanthonia caespitosa. However, L. sativa (lettuce) was also among the most sensitive to all four metals. Acacia species showed a high tolerance to metal exposure, suggesting that the Acacia genus shows potential for use in contaminated-site revegetation.

  4. Three explanations for biodiversity hotspots: small range size, geographical overlap and time for species accumulation. An Australian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Lyn G; Hardy, Nate B; Crisp, Michael D

    2015-07-01

    To understand the generation and maintenance of biodiversity hotspots, we tested three major hypotheses: rates of diversification, ecological limits to diversity, and time for species accumulation. Using dated molecular phylogenies, measures of species' range size and geographical clade overlap, niche modelling, and lineages-through-time plots of Australian Fabaceae, we compared the southwest Australia Floristic Region (SWAFR; a global biodiversity hotspot) with a latitudinally equivalent non-hotspot, southeast Australia (SEA). Ranges of species (real and simulated) were smaller in the SWAFR than in SEA. Geographical overlap of clades was significantly greater for Daviesia in the SWAFR than in SEA, but the inverse for Bossiaea. Lineage diversification rates over the past 10 Myr did not differ between the SWAFR and SEA in either genus. Interaction of multiple factors probably explains the differences in measured diversity between the two regions. Steeper climatic gradients in the SWAFR probably explain the smaller geographical ranges of both genera there. Greater geographical overlap of clades in the SWAFR, combined with a longer time in the region, can explain why Daviesia is far more species-rich there than in SEA. Our results indicate that the time for speciation and ecological limits hypotheses, in concert, can explain the differences in biodiversity. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  5. Pre-damage biomass allocation and not invasiveness predicts tolerance to damage in seedlings of woody species in Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lurie, Matthew H; Barton, Kasey E; Daehler, Curtis C

    2017-12-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions have been predicted to play a fundamental role in plant invasions, although support for this assertion from previous research is mixed. While plants may escape from specialist herbivores in their introduced ranges, herbivory from generalists is common. Tolerance traits may allow non-native plants to mitigate the negative consequences of generalist herbivory that they cannot avoid in their introduced range. Here we address whether tolerance to herbivory, quantified as survival and compensatory growth, is associated with plant invasion success in Hawaii and investigate traits that may enhance tolerance in seedlings, the life stage most susceptible to herbivory. In a greenhouse experiment, we measured seedling tolerance to simulated herbivory through mechanical damage (50% leaf removal) of 16 non-native woody plant species differing in invasion status (invasive vs. non-invasive). Seedlings were grown for 2 weeks following damage and analyzed for biomass to determine whether damaged plants could fully compensate for the lost leaf tissue. Over 99% of all seedlings survived defoliation. Although species varied significantly in their levels of compensation, there was no consistent difference between invasive and non-invasive species. Seedlings of 11 species undercompensated and remained substantially smaller than control seedlings 2 weeks after damage; four species were close to compensating, while one species overcompensated. Across species, compensation was positively associated with an increased investment in potential storage reserves, specifically cotyledons and roots, suggesting that these organs provide resources that help seedlings re-grow following damage. Our results add to a growing consensus that pre-damage growth patterns determine tolerance to damage, even in young seedlings which have relatively low biomass. The lack of higher tolerance in highly invasive species may suggest that invaders overcome herbivory barriers to invasion

  6. Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most

  7. Progress in sensor performance testing, modeling and range prediction using the TOD method: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijl, Piet; Hogervorst, Maarten A.; Toet, Alexander

    2017-05-01

    The Triangle Orientation Discrimination (TOD) methodology includes i) a widely applicable, accurate end-to-end EO/IR sensor test, ii) an image-based sensor system model and iii) a Target Acquisition (TA) range model. The method has been extensively validated against TA field performance for a wide variety of well- and under-sampled imagers, systems with advanced image processing techniques such as dynamic super resolution and local adaptive contrast enhancement, and sensors showing smear or noise drift, for both static and dynamic test stimuli and as a function of target contrast. Recently, significant progress has been made in various directions. Dedicated visual and NIR test charts for lab and field testing are available and thermal test benches are on the market. Automated sensor testing using an objective synthetic human observer is within reach. Both an analytical and an image-based TOD model have recently been developed and are being implemented in the European Target Acquisition model ECOMOS and in the EOSTAR TDA. Further, the methodology is being applied for design optimization of high-end security camera systems. Finally, results from a recent perception study suggest that DRI ranges for real targets can be predicted by replacing the relevant distinctive target features by TOD test patterns of the same characteristic size and contrast, enabling a new TA modeling approach. This paper provides an overview.

  8. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

  9. Predicting the oral uptake efficiency of chemicals in mammals: Combining the hydrophilic and lipophilic range

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Isabel A., E-mail: i.oconnor@science.ru.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Environmental Science, P.O. Box 9010, NL-6500 GL, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Huijbregts, Mark A.J., E-mail: m.huijbregts@science.ru.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Environmental Science, P.O. Box 9010, NL-6500 GL, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Ragas, Ad M.J., E-mail: a.ragas@science.ru.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Environmental Science, P.O. Box 9010, NL-6500 GL, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Open University, School of Science, P.O. Box 2960,6401 DL Heerlen (Netherlands); Hendriks, A. Jan, E-mail: a.j.hendriks@science.ru.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Environmental Science, P.O. Box 9010, NL-6500 GL, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2013-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment requires models for estimating the bioaccumulation of untested compounds. So far, bioaccumulation models have focused on lipophilic compounds, and only a few have included hydrophilic compounds. Our aim was to extend an existing bioaccumulation model to estimate the oral uptake efficiency of pollutants in mammals for compounds over a wide K{sub ow} range with an emphasis on hydrophilic compounds, i.e. compounds in the lower K{sub ow} range. Usually, most models use octanol as a single surrogate for the membrane and thus neglect the bilayer structure of the membrane. However, compounds with polar groups can have different affinities for the different membrane regions. Therefore, an existing bioaccumulation model was extended by dividing the diffusion resistance through the membrane into an outer and inner membrane resistance, where the solvents octanol and heptane were used as surrogates for these membrane regions, respectively. The model was calibrated with uptake efficiencies of environmental pollutants measured in different mammals during feeding studies combined with human oral uptake efficiencies of pharmaceuticals. The new model estimated the uptake efficiency of neutral (RMSE = 14.6) and dissociating (RMSE = 19.5) compounds with logK{sub ow} ranging from − 10 to + 8. The inclusion of the K{sub hw} improved uptake estimation for 33% of the hydrophilic compounds (logK{sub ow} < 0) (r{sup 2} = 0.51, RMSE = 22.8) compared with the model based on K{sub ow} only (r{sup 2} = 0.05, RMSE = 34.9), while hydrophobic compounds (logK{sub ow} > 0) were estimated equally by both model versions with RMSE = 15.2 (K{sub ow} and K{sub hw}) and RMSE = 15.7 (K{sub ow} only). The model can be used to estimate the oral uptake efficiency for both hydrophilic and hydrophobic compounds. -- Highlights: ► A mechanistic model was developed to estimate oral uptake efficiency. ► Model covers wide logK{sub ow} range (- 10 to + 8) and several mammalian

  10. Comparative evaluation of phytoremediation of metal contaminated soil of firing range by four different plant species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saadia R. Tariq

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The phytoremediation potential of Helianthus annuus, Zea maize, Brassica campestris and Pisum sativum was studied for the soil of firing range contaminated with selected metals i.e. Cd, Cu, Co, Ni, Cr and Pb. The seedlings of the selected plants germinated in a mixture of sand and alluvial soil were transferred to the pots containing the soil of firing ranges and allowed to grow to the stage of reproductive growth. Subsequently they were harvested and then analyzed for selected metals by using AAS. Among the studied plants, P. sativum exhibited highest removal efficiency (i.e. 96.23% and bioconcentration factor for Pb thereby evidencing it to be Pb hyperaccumulator from the soil of firing ranges. Z. maize appreciably reduced the levels of all the selected metals in the soil but the highest phytoextraction capacity was shown for Pb i.e. 66.36%, which was enhanced to approximately 74% on EDTA application. H. annuus represented the highest removal potential for Cd i.e. 56.03% which was further increased on EDTA application. Thus it proved to be an accumulator of Cd after EDTA application. It was therefore concluded that different plants possess different phytoremediation potentials under given set of conditions.

  11. Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum in the southeastern United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Byers

    Full Text Available Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5 are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas, which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

  12. Interplay between subsurface structural heterogeneity and multi-species reactive transport in human health risk predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henri, C.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; de Barros, F.

    2013-12-01

    The increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface has led to a rapid growth of social concerns and to the need to develop and employ models that can predict the impact of groundwater contamination in human health under uncertainty. Monitored natural attenuation is a common remediation action in many contamination cases and represents an attractive decontamination method. However, natural attenuation can lead to the production of subspecies of distinct toxicity that may pose challenges in pollution management strategies. The actual threat that these contaminants pose to human health and ecosystems greatly depends on the interplay between the complexity of the geological system and the toxicity of the pollutants and their byproducts. In this work, we examine the interplay between multispecies reactive transport and the heterogeneous structure of the contaminated aquifer on human health risk predictions. The structure and organization of hydraulic properties of the aquifer can lead to preferential flow channels and fast contamination pathways. Early travel times, associated to channeling effects, are intuitively perceived as an indicator for high risk. However, in the case of multi-species systems, early travel times may also lead a limited production of daughter species that may contain higher toxicity as in the case of chlorinated compounds. In this work, we model a Perchloroethylene (PCE) contamination problem followed by the sequential first-order production/biodegradation of its daughter species Trichloroethylene (TCE), Dichloroethylene (DCE) and Vinyl Chlorine (VC). For this specific case, VC is known to be a highly toxic contaminant. By performing numerical experiments, we evaluate transport for two distinct three-dimensional aquifer structures. First, a multi-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field and secondly, a geostatistically equivalent connected field. These two heterogeneity structures will provide two distinct ranges of mean travel

  13. Cross-species mapping of bidirectional promoters enables prediction of unannotated 5' UTRs and identification of species-specific transcripts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lewin Harris A

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bidirectional promoters are shared regulatory regions that influence the expression of two oppositely oriented genes. This type of regulatory architecture is found more frequently than expected by chance in the human genome, yet many specifics underlying the regulatory design are unknown. Given that the function of most orthologous genes is similar across species, we hypothesized that the architecture and regulation of bidirectional promoters might also be similar across species, representing a core regulatory structure and enabling annotation of these regions in additional mammalian genomes. Results By mapping the intergenic distances of genes in human, chimpanzee, bovine, murine, and rat, we show an enrichment for pairs of genes equal to or less than 1,000 bp between their adjacent 5' ends ("head-to-head" compared to pairs of genes that fall in the same orientation ("head-to-tail" or whose 3' ends are side-by-side ("tail-to-tail". A representative set of 1,369 human bidirectional promoters was mapped to orthologous sequences in other mammals. We confirmed predictions for 5' UTRs in nine of ten manual picks in bovine based on comparison to the orthologous human promoter set and in six of seven predictions in human based on comparison to the bovine dataset. The two predictions that did not have orthology as bidirectional promoters in the other species resulted from unique events that initiated transcription in the opposite direction in only those species. We found evidence supporting the independent emergence of bidirectional promoters from the family of five RecQ helicase genes, which gained their bidirectional promoters and partner genes independently rather than through a duplication process. Furthermore, by expanding our comparisons from pairwise to multispecies analyses we developed a map representing a core set of bidirectional promoters in mammals. Conclusion We show that the orthologous positions of bidirectional

  14. Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Becker

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

  15. Investigation on resistance to drought and efficiency of water usage in two range species, Dactylis glomerata and Eragrostis curvula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafari, M.; Saiedian, F.; Heydari, H.; Azarnayvand, H.; Farzaneh, Z.

    2000-01-01

    Determination of water efficiency and resistance to drought in range plants are important factors that have essential role in selection of range development methods. As there is not any comprehensive study in resistance to drought, present research was done with selection of two range species. Selected species were two kinds of Gramineae, namely Dactylis glomerata and Eragrostis curvula. Some parameters such as used water, length, width and number of leaves, dry mass of leaves were studies. Obtained results showed that length and width of leaves were not under stress in irrigation periods, but number of leaves, dry mass of leaf and stem decreased under drought stress. Amount of decrease in Eragrostis curvula was less than Dactylis glomerata Increment of irrigation periods, increased root growth rather than stem, but root growth in Dactylis glomerata was more than Eragrostis curvula for production of dry matter, Dactylis glomerata species has less water requirement and higher water usage efficiency in terms of amount of water usage. In terms of resistance to drought, Eragrostis curvula has more resistance rather than Dactylis glomerata because of high water potential and lower witt ing point

  16. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  17. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species

  18. Reduced mandibular range of motion in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bruggen, H W; Van Den Engel-Hoek, L; Steenks, M H; Bronkhorst, E M; Creugers, N H J; de Groot, I J M; Kalaykova, S I

    2015-06-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) experience negative effects upon feeding and oral health. We aimed to determine whether the mandibular range of motion in DMD is impaired and to explore predictive factors for the active maximum mouth opening (aMMO). 23 patients with DMD (mean age 16.7 ± 7.7 years) and 23 controls were assessed using a questionnaire about mandibular function and impairments. All participants underwent a clinical examination of the masticatory system, including measurement of mandibular range of motion and variables related to mandibular movements. In all patients, quantitative ultrasound of the digastric muscle and the geniohyoid muscle and the motor function measure (MFM) scale were performed. The patients were divided into early and late ambulatory stage (AS), early non-ambulatory stage (ENAS) and late non-ambulatory stage (LNAS). All mandibular movements were reduced in the patient group (P < 0.001) compared to the controls. Reduction in the aMMO (<40 mm) was found in 26% of the total patient group. LNAS patients had significantly smaller mandibular movements compared to AS and ENAS (P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis for aMMO revealed a positive correlation with the body height and disease progression, with MFM total score as the strongest independent risk factor (R(2) = 0.71). Mandibular movements in DMD are significantly reduced and become more hampered with loss of motor function, including the sitting position, arm function, and neck and head control. We suggest that measurement of the aMMO becomes a part of routine care of patients with DMD. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Barcoding of Asian seabass across its geographic range provides evidence for its bifurcation into two distinct species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shubha eVij

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Asian seabass or barramundi (Lates calcarifer is an important food fish with commercial value and a wide geographic distribution. Though some reports based on molecular and/or morphological data exist, a comprehensive effort to establish species identity across its range is lacking. In order to address this issue and especially to ascertain whether the wide-spread distribution has resulted in bifurcation of the species, we collected Asian seabass samples from various locations representing the Western and Eastern Coastline of India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Bangladesh and Australia. Samples from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore were collected as part of a previous study. DNA sequence variations, including cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI, 16S rDNA and the highly variable D-loop (or control region, were examined to establish species delineation. Data from all the sequences analyzed concordantly point to the existence of at least two distinct species - one representing the Indian subcontinent plus Myanmar, and a second, representing Southeast Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia plus Northern Australia. These data are useful for conservation ecology, aquaculture management, for establishing the extent of genetic diversity in the Asian seabass and implementing selective breeding programs for members of this species complex.

  20. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  1. The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

  2. Escaping to the summits: phylogeography and predicted range dynamics of Cerastium dinaricum, an endangered high mountain plant endemic to the western Balkan Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutnjak, Denis; Kuttner, Michael; Niketić, Marjan; Dullinger, Stefan; Schönswetter, Peter; Frajman, Božo

    2014-09-01

    The Balkans are a major European biodiversity hotspot, however, almost nothing is known about processes of intraspecific diversification of the region's high-altitude biota and their reaction to the predicted global warming. To fill this gap, genome size measurements, AFLP fingerprints, plastid and nuclear sequences were employed to explore the phylogeography of Cerastium dinaricum. Range size changes under future climatic conditions were predicted by niche-based modeling. Likely the most cold-adapted plant endemic to the Dinaric Mountains in the western Balkan Peninsula, the species has conservation priority in the European Union as its highly fragmented distribution range includes only few small populations. A deep phylogeographic split paralleled by divergent genome size separates the populations into two vicariant groups. Substructure is pronounced within the southeastern group, corresponding to the area's higher geographic complexity. Cerastium dinaricum likely responded to past climatic oscillations with altitudinal range shifts, which, coupled with high topographic complexity of the region and warmer climate in the Holocene, sculptured its present fragmented distribution. Field observations revealed that the species is rarer than previously assumed and, as shown by modeling, severely endangered by global warming as viable habitat was predicted to be reduced by more than 70% by the year 2080. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

    2014-10-01

    Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

  4. Predicting patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes at the rangewide scale for an endangered species: an example of an American warbler

    KAUST Repository

    Collier, Bret A.

    2011-08-25

    AIM: Our objective was to identify the distribution of the endangered golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) in fragmented oak-juniper woodlands by applying a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model to better assist decision-makers in identifying suitable habitat across the species breeding range on which conservation or mitigation activities can be focused and thus prioritize management and conservation planning. LOCATION: Texas, USA. METHODS: We used repeated double-observer detection/non-detection surveys of randomly selected (n = 287) patches of potential habitat to evaluate warbler patch-scale presence across the species breeding range. We used a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model with remotely sensed habitat metrics (patch size and landscape composition) to predict patch-scale occupancy of golden-cheeked warblers in the fragmented oak-juniper woodlands of central Texas, USA. RESULTS: Our spatially explicit model indicated that golden-cheeked warbler patch occupancy declined from south to north within the breeding range concomitant with reductions in the availability of large habitat patches. We found that 59% of woodland patches, primarily in the northern and central portions of the warbler\\'s range, were predicted to have occupancy probabilities ≤0.10 with only 3% of patches predicted to have occupancy probabilities >0.90. Our model exhibited high prediction accuracy (area under curve = 0.91) when validated using independently collected warbler occurrence data. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a distinct spatial occurrence gradient for golden-cheeked warblers as well as a relationship between two measurable landscape characteristics. Because habitat-occupancy relationships were key drivers of our model, our results can be used to identify potential areas where conservation actions supporting habitat mitigation can occur and identify areas where conservation of future potential habitat is possible. Additionally, our results can be

  5. Regional Variation in Parasite Species Richness and Abundance in the Introduced Range of the Invasive Lionfish, Pterois volitans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Andrew J; Ruiz, Gregory M; Leung, Brian; Torchin, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Parasites can play an important role in biological invasions. While introduced species often lose parasites from their native range, they can also accumulate novel parasites in their new range. The accumulation of parasites by introduced species likely varies spatially, and more parasites may shift to new hosts where parasite diversity is high. Considering that parasitism and disease are generally more prevalent at lower latitudes, the accumulation of parasites by introduced hosts may be greater in tropical regions. The Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) has become widely distributed across the Western Atlantic. In this study, we compared parasitism across thirteen locations in four regions, spanning seventeen degrees of latitude in the lionfish's introduced range to examine potential spatial variation in parasitism. In addition, as an initial step to explore how indirect effects of parasitism might influence interactions between lionfish and ecologically similar native hosts, we also compared parasitism in lionfish and two co-occurring native fish species, the graysby grouper, Cephalopholis cruentata, and the lizardfish, Synodus intermedius, in the southernmost region, Panama. Our results show that accumulation of native parasites on lionfish varies across broad spatial scales, and that colonization by ectoparasites was highest in Panama, relative to the other study sites. Endoparasite richness and abundance, on the other hand, were highest in Belize where lionfish were infected by twice as many endoparasite species as lionfish in other regions. The prevalence of all but two parasite species infecting lionfish was below 25%, and we did not detect an association between parasite abundance and host condition, suggesting a limited direct effect of parasites on lionfish, even where parasitism was highest. Further, parasite species richness and abundance were significantly higher in both native fishes compared to lionfish, and parasite abundance was negatively

  6. Regional Variation in Parasite Species Richness and Abundance in the Introduced Range of the Invasive Lionfish, Pterois volitans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Sellers

    Full Text Available Parasites can play an important role in biological invasions. While introduced species often lose parasites from their native range, they can also accumulate novel parasites in their new range. The accumulation of parasites by introduced species likely varies spatially, and more parasites may shift to new hosts where parasite diversity is high. Considering that parasitism and disease are generally more prevalent at lower latitudes, the accumulation of parasites by introduced hosts may be greater in tropical regions. The Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans has become widely distributed across the Western Atlantic. In this study, we compared parasitism across thirteen locations in four regions, spanning seventeen degrees of latitude in the lionfish's introduced range to examine potential spatial variation in parasitism. In addition, as an initial step to explore how indirect effects of parasitism might influence interactions between lionfish and ecologically similar native hosts, we also compared parasitism in lionfish and two co-occurring native fish species, the graysby grouper, Cephalopholis cruentata, and the lizardfish, Synodus intermedius, in the southernmost region, Panama. Our results show that accumulation of native parasites on lionfish varies across broad spatial scales, and that colonization by ectoparasites was highest in Panama, relative to the other study sites. Endoparasite richness and abundance, on the other hand, were highest in Belize where lionfish were infected by twice as many endoparasite species as lionfish in other regions. The prevalence of all but two parasite species infecting lionfish was below 25%, and we did not detect an association between parasite abundance and host condition, suggesting a limited direct effect of parasites on lionfish, even where parasitism was highest. Further, parasite species richness and abundance were significantly higher in both native fishes compared to lionfish, and parasite

  7. Infection of non-host model plant species with the narrow-host-range Cacao swollen shoot virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friscina, Arianna; Chiappetta, Laura; Jacquemond, Mireille; Tepfer, Mark

    2017-02-01

    Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) is a major pathogen of cacao (Theobroma cacao) in Africa, and long-standing efforts to limit its spread by the culling of infected trees have had very limited success. CSSV is a particularly difficult virus to study, as it has a very narrow host range, limited to several tropical tree species. Furthermore, the virus is not mechanically transmissible, and its insect vector can only be used with difficulty. Thus, the only efficient means to infect cacao plants that have been experimentally described so far are by particle bombardment or the agroinoculation of cacao plants with an infectious clone. We have genetically transformed three non-host species with an infectious form of the CSSV genome: two experimental hosts widely used in plant virology (Nicotiana tabacum and N. benthamiana) and the model species Arabidopsis thaliana. In transformed plants of all three species, the CSSV genome was able to replicate, and, in tobacco, CSSV particles could be observed by immunosorbent electron microscopy, demonstrating that the complete virus cycle could be completed in a non-host plant. These results will greatly facilitate the preliminary testing of CSSV control strategies using plants that are easy to raise and to transform genetically. © 2016 BSPP AND JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD.

  8. On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B Conn

    Full Text Available Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook's notion of an independent variable hull (IVH, developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models.

  9. Long-range weather prediction and prevention of climate catastrophes: a status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldeira, K; Caravan, G; Govindasamy, B; Grossman, A; Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M; Ledebuhr, A; Leith, C; Molenkamp, C; Teller, E; Wood, L

    1999-01-01

    As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge-and then control-of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living-and, indeed, reliability of life itself-become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one, Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

  10. Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

    1999-08-18

    As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

  11. Relations between species rarity, vulnerability, and range contraction for a beetle group in a densely populated region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone

    2014-02-01

    Rarity is often considered an indication of species extinction risk, and it is frequently used to obtain measures of species vulnerability. However, there is no strong evidence of a correlation between species vulnerability and threat. Moreover, there is no consensus about how rarity should be measured. I used a multidimensional characterization of species rarity to calculate a vulnerability index for tenebrionid beetles inhabiting an Italian region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. I used different metrics to examine 3 dimensions of rarity: species range, ecology, and population. Species with rarity values below the median were scored as rare for each dimension. I combined rarity scores into a vulnerability index. I then correlated species vulnerability with range trends (expanded vs. contracted). Different measures of the same rarity dimension were strongly correlated and produced similar vulnerability scores. This result indicates rarity-based vulnerability estimates are slightly affected by the way a certain rarity dimension is measured. Vulnerability was correlated with range trends; species with the highest vulnerability had the strongest range contraction. However, a large number of common species also underwent range contraction in the last 50 years, and there was no clear relation between range contraction and their ecology. This indicates that in general human-induced environmental changes affected species irrespective of their assumed vulnerability and that focusing only on rare species may severely bias perceptions of the extent of species decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Predictive models of threatened plant species distribution in the Iberian arid south-east

    OpenAIRE

    Benito, Blas M.

    2013-01-01

    Poster on the distribution of three rare, endemic and endangered annual plants of arid zones in the south-eastern Iberian peninsula. Presented in the workshop "Predictive Modelling of Species Distribution: New Tools for the XXI Century (Baeza, Spain, november 2005).

  13. Equations for predicting biomass of six introduced tree species, island of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas H. Schukrt; Robert F. Strand; Thomas G. Cole; Katharine E. McDuffie

    1988-01-01

    Regression equations to predict total and stem-only above-ground dry biomass for six species (Acacia melanoxylon, Albizio falcataria, Eucalyptus globulus, E. grandis, E. robusta, and E. urophylla) were developed by felling and measuring 2- to 6-year-old...

  14. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking

  15. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking.

  16. Photosynthetic capacity is negatively correlated with the concentration of leaf phenolic compounds across a range of different species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumbele, Sally; Fotelli, Mariangela N; Nikolopoulos, Dimosthenis; Tooulakou, Georgia; Liakoura, Vally; Liakopoulos, Georgios; Bresta, Panagiota; Dotsika, Elissavet; Adams, Mark A; Karabourniotis, George

    2012-01-01

    Phenolic compounds are the most commonly studied of all secondary metabolites because of their significant protective-defensive roles and their significant concentration in plant tissues. However, there has been little study on relationships between gas exchange parameters and the concentration of leaf phenolic compounds (total phenolics (TP) and condensed tannins (CT)) across a range of species. Therefore, we addressed the question: is there any correlation between photosynthetic capacity (A(max)) and TP and CT across species from different ecosystems in different continents? A plethora of functional and structural parameters were measured in 49 plant species following different growth strategies from five sampling sites located in Greece and Australia. The relationships between several leaf traits were analysed by means of regression and principal component analysis. The results revealed a negative relationship between TP and CT and A(max) among the different plant species, growth strategies and sampling sites, irrespective of expression (with respect to mass, area or nitrogen content). Principal component analysis showed that high concentrations of TP and CT are associated with thick, dense leaves with low nitrogen. This leaf type is characterized by low growth, A(max) and transpiration rates, and is common in environments with low water and nutrient availability, high temperatures and high light intensities. Therefore, the high TP and CT in such leaves are compatible with the protective and defensive functions ascribed to them. Our results indicate a functional integration between carbon gain and the concentration of leaf phenolic compounds that reflects the trade-off between growth and defence/protection demands, depending on the growth strategy adopted by each species.

  17. Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

  18. Can temporal and spatial NDVI predict regional bird-species richness?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián Nieto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the distribution of the species and its controls over biogeographic scales is still a major challenge in ecology. National Park Networks provide an opportunity to assess the relationship between ecosystem functioning and biodiversity in areas with low human impacts. We tested the productivity–biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the available energy, and the ​variability–biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the diversity of habitats. The available energy and habitat heterogeneity estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI was shown as a good predictor of bird-species richness for a diverse set of biomes in previously published studies. However, there is not a universal relationship between NDVI and bird-species richness. Here we tested if the NDVI can predict bird species richness in areas with low human impact in Argentina. Using a dataset from the National Park Network of Argentina we found that the best predictor of bird species richness was the minimum value of NDVI per year which explained 75% of total variability. The inclusion of the spatial heterogeneity of NDVI improved the explanation power to 80%. Minimum NDVI was highly correlated with precipitation and winter temperature. Our analysis provides a tool for assessing bird-species richness at scales on which land-use planning practitioners make their decisions for Southern South America.

  19. The distribution and habitat preferences of the declining species Orobanche arenaria Borkh at the northern limit of its geographical range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Piwowarczyk

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Three new sites of Orobanche arenaria were discovered during floristic investigations in the Wyżyna Małopolska upland in central Poland. The new localities are concentrated in the Ponidzie area (Garb Pińczowski ridge and Niecka Połaniecka basin and form the northern limit of the geographical range of O. arenaria. The paper presents information on the distribution of Orobanche arenaria in Poland, the abundance at the sites and habitats occupied by the species.

  20. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

  1. Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O

    2018-04-24

    As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.

  2. Tree Species Abundance Predictions in a Tropical Agricultural Landscape with a Supervised Classification Model and Imbalanced Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah J. Graves

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Mapping species through classification of imaging spectroscopy data is facilitating research to understand tree species distributions at increasingly greater spatial scales. Classification requires a dataset of field observations matched to the image, which will often reflect natural species distributions, resulting in an imbalanced dataset with many samples for common species and few samples for less common species. Despite the high prevalence of imbalanced datasets in multiclass species predictions, the effect on species prediction accuracy and landscape species abundance has not yet been quantified. First, we trained and assessed the accuracy of a support vector machine (SVM model with a highly imbalanced dataset of 20 tropical species and one mixed-species class of 24 species identified in a hyperspectral image mosaic (350–2500 nm of Panamanian farmland and secondary forest fragments. The model, with an overall accuracy of 62% ± 2.3% and F-score of 59% ± 2.7%, was applied to the full image mosaic (23,000 ha at a 2-m resolution to produce a species prediction map, which suggested that this tropical agricultural landscape is more diverse than what has been presented in field-based studies. Second, we quantified the effect of class imbalance on model accuracy. Model assessment showed a trend where species with more samples were consistently over predicted while species with fewer samples were under predicted. Standardizing sample size reduced model accuracy, but also reduced the level of species over- and under-prediction. This study advances operational species mapping of diverse tropical landscapes by detailing the effect of imbalanced data on classification accuracy and providing estimates of tree species abundance in an agricultural landscape. Species maps using data and methods presented here can be used in landscape analyses of species distributions to understand human or environmental effects, in addition to focusing conservation

  3. Belowground Plant–Herbivore Interactions Vary among Climate-Driven Range-Expanding Plant Species with Different Degrees of Novel Chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutger A. Wilschut

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of studies report plant range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to global warming. However, consequences for interactions with other species in the novel ranges are poorly understood. Here, we examine how range-expanding plant species interact with root-feeding nematodes from the new range. Root-feeding nematodes are ubiquitous belowground herbivores that may impact the structure and composition of natural vegetation. Because of their ecological novelty, we hypothesized that range-expanding plant species will be less suitable hosts for root-feeding nematodes than native congeneric plant species. In greenhouse and lab trials we compared nematode preference and performance of two root-feeding nematode species between range-expanding plant species and their congeneric natives. In order to understand differences in nematode preferences, we compared root volatile profiles of all range-expanders and congeneric natives. Nematode preferences and performances differed substantially among the pairs of range-expanders and natives. The range-expander that had the most unique volatile profile compared to its related native was unattractive and a poor host for nematodes. Other range-expanding plant species that differed less in root chemistry from native congeners, also differed less in nematode attraction and performance. We conclude that the three climate-driven range-expanding plant species studied varied considerably in their chemical novelty compared to their congeneric natives, and therefore affected native root-feeding nematodes in species-specific ways. Our data suggest that through variation in chemical novelty, range-expanding plant species may vary in their impacts on belowground herbivores in the new range.

  4. Expansion of an exotic species and concomitant disease outbreaks: pigeon paramyxovirus in free-ranging Eurasian collared doves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Krysten L; Green, David E; Justice-Allen, Anne E; Jaffe, Rosemary; Cunningham, Mark; Thomas, Nancy J; Spalding, Marilyn G; Ip, Hon S

    2012-06-01

    Eurasian collared doves (Streptopelia decaocto) have expanded their range across the United States since their introduction several decades ago. Recent mortality events in Eurasian collared doves in Arizona and Montana, USA, during the winter of 2009-2010 were the result of pigeon paramyxovirus (PPMV), a novel disease agent. The first instance of mortality by this emerging infectious disease in this species occurred in Florida in 2001 with subsequent disease events in 2006 and 2008. Full diagnostic necropsies were performed on carcasses from the three states. PPMV was identified by RT-PCR and virus isolation and was sequenced to the VIb genotype of avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV). Other APMVs are common in a variety of free-ranging birds, but concern is warranted because of the potential for commingling of this species with native birds, virus evolution, and threats to domestic poultry. Improved surveillance for wildlife mortality events and efforts to prevent introduction of non-native animals could reduce the threat of introducing new pathogens.

  5. Comparative toxicity of two oil dispersants, superdispersant-25 and corexit 9527, to a range of coastal species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarlett, Alan; Galloway, Tamara S; Canty, Martin; Smith, Emma L; Nilsson, Johanna; Rowland, Steven J

    2005-05-01

    The acute toxicity of the oil dispersant Corexit 9527 reported in the literature is highly variable. No peer-reviewed data exist for Superdispersant-25 (SD-25). This study compares the toxicity of the two dispersants to a range of marine species representing different phyla occupying a wide range of niches: The marine sediment-dwelling amphipod Corophium volutator (Pallas), the common mussel Mytilus edulis (L.), the symbiotic snakelocks anemone Anemonia viridis (Forskål), and the seagrass Zostera marina (L.). Organisms were exposed to static dispersant concentrations for 48-h and median lethal concentration (LC50), median effect concentration (EC50), and lowest-observable-effect concentration (LOEC) values obtained. The sublethal effects of 48-h exposures and the ability of species to recover for up to 72 h after exposure were quantified relative to the 48-h endpoints. Results indicated that the anemone lethality test was the most sensitive with LOECs of 20 ppm followed by mussel feeding rate, seagrass photosynthetic index and amphipod lethality, with mussel lethality being the least sensitive with LOECs of 250 ppm for both dispersants. The results were consistent with current theory that dispersants act physically and irreversibly on the respiratory organs and reversibly, depending on exposure time, on the nervous system. Superdispersant-25 was found overall to be less toxic than Corexit 9527 and its sublethal effects more likely to be reversible following short-term exposure.

  6. Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

    2011-07-01

    1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

  7. Using Google Earth Surface Metrics to Predict Plant Species Richness in a Complex Landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián Block

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Google Earth provides a freely available, global mosaic of high-resolution imagery from different sensors that has become popular in environmental and ecological studies. However, such imagery lacks the near-infrared band often used in studying vegetation, thus its potential for estimating vegetation properties remains unclear. In this study, we assess the potential of Google Earth imagery to describe and predict vegetation attributes. Further, we compare it to the potential of SPOT imagery, which has additional spectral information. We measured basal area, vegetation height, crown cover, density of individuals, and species richness in 60 plots in the oak forests of a complex volcanic landscape in central Mexico. We modelled each vegetation attribute as a function of surface metrics derived from Google Earth and SPOT images, and selected the best-supported linear models from each source. Total species richness was the best-described and predicted variable: the best Google Earth-based model explained nearly as much variation in species richness as its SPOT counterpart (R2 = 0.44 and 0.51, respectively. However, Google Earth metrics emerged as poor predictors of all remaining vegetation attributes, whilst SPOT metrics showed potential for predicting vegetation height. We conclude that Google Earth imagery can be used to estimate species richness in complex landscapes. As it is freely available, Google Earth can broaden the use of remote sensing by researchers and managers in low-income tropical countries where most biodiversity hotspots are found.

  8. Multiple glacial refugia of the low-dispersal ground beetle Carabus irregularis: molecular data support predictions of species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Homburg

    Full Text Available Classical glacial refugia such as the southern European peninsulas were important for species survival during glacial periods and acted as sources of post-glacial colonisation processes. Only recently, some studies have provided evidence for glacial refugia north of the southern European peninsulas. In the present study, we combined species distribution models (SDMs with phylogeographic analyses (using mitochondrial DNA = mtDNA to investigate if the cold-adapted, stenotopic and flightless ground beetle species, Carabus irregularis, survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM in classical and/or other refugia. SDMs (for both a western European and for a Carpathian subgroup were calculated with MAXENT on the basis of 645 species records to predict current and past distribution patterns. Two mtDNA loci (CO1 and ND5, concatenated sequence length: 1785 bp were analyzed from 91 C. irregularis specimens to reconstruct the phylogeography of Central and eastern European populations and to estimate divergence times of the given lineages. Strong intra-specific genetic differentiation (inter-clade ΦST values ranged from 0.92 to 0.99 implied long-term isolation of major clades and subsclades. The high divergence between the nominate subspecies and the Carpathian subspecies C. i. montandoni points to two independent species rather than subspecies (K-2P distance 0.042 ± 0.004; supposed divergence of the maternal lineages dated back 1.6 to 2.5 million years BP differing not only morphologically but also genetically and ecologically from each other. The SDMs also inferred classical as well as other refugia for C. irregularis, especially north of the Alps, in southeastern Europe and in the Carpathians. The coincidences between the results of both methods confirm the assumption of multiple glacial refugia for the studied species and the usefulness of combining methodological approaches for the understanding of the history of low-dispersal insect species.

  9. The multidimensional behavioural hypervolumes of two interacting species predict their space use and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenstein, James L L; Wright, Colin M; McEwen, Brendan; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Pruitt, Jonathan N

    2017-10-01

    Individual animals differ consistently in their behaviour, thus impacting a wide variety of ecological outcomes. Recent advances in animal personality research have established the ecological importance of the multidimensional behavioural volume occupied by individuals and by multispecies communities. Here, we examine the degree to which the multidimensional behavioural volume of a group predicts the outcome of both intra- and interspecific interactions. In particular, we test the hypothesis that a population of conspecifics will experience low intraspecific competition when the population occupies a large volume in behavioural space. We further hypothesize that populations of interacting species will exhibit greater interspecific competition when one or both species occupy large volumes in behavioural space. We evaluate these hypotheses by studying groups of katydids ( Scudderia nymphs) and froghoppers ( Philaenus spumarius ), which compete for food and space on their shared host plant, Solidago canadensis . We found that individuals in single-species groups of katydids positioned themselves closer to one another, suggesting reduced competition, when groups occupied a large behavioural volume. When both species were placed together, we found that the survival of froghoppers was greatest when both froghoppers and katydids occupied a small volume in behavioural space, particularly at high froghopper densities. These results suggest that groups that occupy large behavioural volumes can have low intraspecific competition but high interspecific competition. Thus, behavioural hypervolumes appear to have ecological consequences at both the level of the population and the community and may help to predict the intensity of competition both within and across species.

  10. An experimental test of fitness variation across a hydrologic gradient predicts willow and poplar species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaojing; Savage, Jessica A; Riggs, Charlotte E; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

    2017-05-01

    Environmental filtering is an important community assembly process influencing species distributions. Contrasting species abundance patterns along environmental gradients are commonly used to provide evidence for environmental filtering. However, the same abundance patterns may result from alternative or concurrent assembly processes. Experimental tests are an important means to decipher whether species fitness varies with environment, in the absence of dispersal constraints and biotic interactions, and to draw conclusions about the importance of environmental filtering in community assembly. We performed an experimental test of environmental filtering in 14 closely related willow and poplar species (family Salicaceae) by transplanting cuttings of each species into 40 common gardens established along a natural hydrologic gradient in the field, where competition was minimized and herbivory was controlled. We analyzed species fitness responses to the hydrologic environment based on cumulative growth and survival over two years using aster fitness models. We also examined variation in nine drought and flooding tolerance traits expected to contribute to performance based on a priori understanding of plant function in relation to water availability and stress. We found substantial evidence that environmental filtering along the hydrologic gradient played a critical role in determining species distributions. Fitness variation of each species in the field experiment was used to model their water table depth optima. These optima predicted 68% of the variation in species realized hydrologic niches based on peak abundance in naturally assembled communities in the surrounding region. Multiple traits associated with water transport efficiency and water stress tolerance were correlated with species hydrologic niches, but they did not necessarily covary with each other. As a consequence, species occupying similar hydrologic niches had different combinations of trait values

  11. A Hybrid Finite Element/Helmholtz-Kirchhoff-Integral Model for Shooting Range Sound Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijhof, M.J.J.; Eerden, F.J.M. van der

    2013-01-01

    National legislation enforces a limit on the Sound Levels of outdoor military shooting ranges observed in nearby residential areas. These restrictions directly influence the number of shots that may be fired at a specific shooting range, which may conflict with the required/ scheduled training

  12. What are the most crucial soil factors for predicting the distribution of alpine plant species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, A.; Pinto-Figueroa, E.; Yashiro, E.; Guisan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays the use of species distribution models (SDM) is common to predict in space and time the distribution of organisms living in the critical zone. The realized environmental niche concept behind the development of SDM imply that many environmental factors must be accounted for simultaneously to predict species distributions. Climatic and topographic factors are often primary included, whereas soil factors are frequently neglected, mainly due to the paucity of soil information available spatially and temporally. Furthermore, among existing studies, most included soil pH only, or few other soil parameters. In this study we aimed at identifying what are the most crucial soil factors for explaining alpine plant distributions and, among those identified, which ones further improve the predictive power of plant SDMs. To test the relative importance of the soil factors, we performed plant SDMs using as predictors 52 measured soil properties of various types such as organic/inorganic compounds, chemical/physical properties, water related variables, mineral composition or grain size distribution. We added them separately to a standard set of topo-climatic predictors (temperature, slope, solar radiation and topographic position). We used ensemble forecasting techniques combining together several predictive algorithms to model the distribution of 116 plant species over 250 sites in the Swiss Alps. We recorded the variable importance for each model and compared the quality of the models including different soil proprieties (one at a time) as predictors to models having only topo-climatic variables as predictors. Results show that 46% of the soil proprieties tested become the second most important variable, after air temperature, to explain spatial distribution of alpine plants species. Moreover, we also assessed that addition of certain soil factors, such as bulk soil water density, could improve over 80% the quality of some plant species models. We confirm that soil p

  13. Alteration of sexual reproduction and genetic diversity in the kelp species Laminaria digitata at the southern limit of its range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Valeria Oppliger

    Full Text Available Adaptation to marginal habitats at species range-limits has often been associated with parthenogenetic reproduction in terrestrial animals and plants. Laboratory observations have shown that brown algae exhibit a high propensity for parthenogenesis by various mechanisms. The kelp Laminaria digitata is an important component of the ecosystem in Northern European rocky intertidal habitats. We studied four L. digitata populations for the effects of marginality on genetic diversity and sexual reproduction. Two populations were marginal: One (Locquirec, in Northern Brittany was well within the geographic range, but was genetically isolated from other populations by large stretches of sandy beaches. Another population was at the range limits of the species (Quiberon, in Southern Brittany and was exposed to much higher seasonal temperature changes. Microsatellite analyses confirmed that these populations showed decreased genetic and allelic diversity, consistent with marginality and genetic isolation. Sporophytes from both marginal populations showed greatly diminished spore-production compared to central populations, but only the southern-limit population (Quiberon showed a high propensity for producing unreduced (2N spores. Unreduced 2N spores formed phenotypically normal gametophytes with nuclear area consistent with ≥2N DNA contents, and microsatellite studies suggested these were produced at least in part by automixis. However, despite this being the dominant path of spore production in Quiberon sporophyte individuals, the genetic evidence indicated the population was maintained mostly by sexual reproduction. Thus, although spore production and development showed the expected tendency of geographical parthenogenesis in marginal populations, this appeared to be a consequence of maladaptation, rather than an adaptation to, life in a marginal habitat.

  14. A Vertically Flow-Following, Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part 1: Model Description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleck, Rainer; Bao, Jian-Wen; Benjamin, Stanley G.; Brown, John M.; Fiorino, Michael; Henderson, Thomas B.; Lee, Jin-Luen; MacDonald, Alexander E.; Madden, Paul; Middlecoff, Jacques; hide

    2015-01-01

    A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain following/ isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect addressing techniques. The vertical grid is adaptive to maximize the portion of the atmosphere mapped into the isentropic coordinate subdomain. The model, best described as a stacked shallow-water model, is being tested extensively on real-time medium-range forecasts to ready it for possible inclusion in operational multimodel ensembles for medium-range to seasonal prediction.

  15. Trait-based analysis of decline in plant species ranges during the 20th century: a regional comparison between the UK and Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laanisto, Lauri; Sammul, Marek; Kull, Tiiu; Macek, Petr; Hutchings, Michael J

    2015-02-02

    Although the distribution ranges and abundance of many plant species have declined dramatically in recent decades, detailed analysis of these changes and their cause have only become possible following the publication of second- and third-generation national distribution atlases. Decline can now be compared both between species and in different parts of species' ranges. We extracted data from distribution atlases to compare range persistence of 736 plant species common to both the UK and Estonia between survey periods encompassing almost the same years (1969 and 1999 in the UK and 1970 and 2004 in Estonia). We determined which traits were most closely associated with variation in species persistence, whether these were the same in each country, and the extent to which they explained differences in persistence between the countries. Mean range size declined less in Estonia than in the UK (24.3% vs. 30.3%). One-third of species in Estonia (239) maintained >90% of their distribution range compared with one-fifth (141) in the UK. In Estonia, 99 species lost >50% of their range compared with 127 species in the UK. Persistence was very positively related to original range in both countries. Major differences in species persistence between the studied countries were primarily determined by biogeographic (affiliation to floristic element) and ecoevolutionary (plant strategy) factors. In contrast, within-country persistence was most strongly determined by tolerance of anthropogenic activities. Decline of species in the families Orchidaceae and Potamogetonaceae was significantly greater in the UK than in Estonia. Almost all of the 736 common and native European plant species in our study are currently declining in their range due to pressure from anthropogenic activities. Those species with low tolerance of human activity, with biotic pollination vectors and in the families referred to above are the most vulnerable, especially where human population density is high. © 2015

  16. Habitat fragmentation and species extirpation in freshwater ecosystems; causes of range decline of the Indus river dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulik, Gill T; Arshad, Masood; Noureen, Uzma; Northridge, Simon P

    2014-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing rapidly, however the understanding of extinction debt and species decline in riverine habitat fragments lags behind that in other ecosystems. The mighty rivers that drain the Himalaya - the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong and Yangtze - are amongst the world's most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. Many hundreds of dams have been constructed, are under construction, or are planned on these rivers and large hydrological changes and losses of biodiversity have occurred and are expected to continue. This study examines the causes of range decline of the Indus dolphin, which inhabits one of the world's most modified rivers, to demonstrate how we may expect other vertebrate populations to respond as planned dams and water developments come into operation. The historical range of the Indus dolphin has been fragmented into 17 river sections by diversion dams; dolphin sighting and interview surveys show that river dolphins have been extirpated from ten river sections, they persist in 6, and are of unknown status in one section. Seven potential factors influencing the temporal and spatial pattern of decline were considered in three regression model sets. Low dry-season river discharge, due to water abstraction at irrigation barrages, was the principal factor that explained the dolphin's range decline, influencing 1) the spatial pattern of persistence, 2) the temporal pattern of subpopulation extirpation, and 3) the speed of extirpation after habitat fragmentation. Dolphins were more likely to persist in the core of the former range because water diversions are concentrated near the range periphery. Habitat fragmentation and degradation of the habitat were inextricably intertwined and in combination caused the catastrophic decline of the Indus dolphin.

  17. Habitat fragmentation and species extirpation in freshwater ecosystems; causes of range decline of the Indus river dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gill T Braulik

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing rapidly, however the understanding of extinction debt and species decline in riverine habitat fragments lags behind that in other ecosystems. The mighty rivers that drain the Himalaya - the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong and Yangtze - are amongst the world's most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. Many hundreds of dams have been constructed, are under construction, or are planned on these rivers and large hydrological changes and losses of biodiversity have occurred and are expected to continue. This study examines the causes of range decline of the Indus dolphin, which inhabits one of the world's most modified rivers, to demonstrate how we may expect other vertebrate populations to respond as planned dams and water developments come into operation. The historical range of the Indus dolphin has been fragmented into 17 river sections by diversion dams; dolphin sighting and interview surveys show that river dolphins have been extirpated from ten river sections, they persist in 6, and are of unknown status in one section. Seven potential factors influencing the temporal and spatial pattern of decline were considered in three regression model sets. Low dry-season river discharge, due to water abstraction at irrigation barrages, was the principal factor that explained the dolphin's range decline, influencing 1 the spatial pattern of persistence, 2 the temporal pattern of subpopulation extirpation, and 3 the speed of extirpation after habitat fragmentation. Dolphins were more likely to persist in the core of the former range because water diversions are concentrated near the range periphery. Habitat fragmentation and degradation of the habitat were inextricably intertwined and in combination caused the catastrophic decline of the Indus dolphin.

  18. Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

    2011-01-01

    If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables

  19. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

  20. Cross-Species Extrapolation of Models for Predicting Lead Transfer from Soil to Wheat Grain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Liu

    Full Text Available The transfer of Pb from the soil to crops is a serious food hygiene security problem in China because of industrial, agricultural, and historical contamination. In this study, the characteristics of exogenous Pb transfer from 17 Chinese soils to a popular wheat variety (Xiaoyan 22 were investigated. In addition, bioaccumulation prediction models of Pb in grain were obtained based on soil properties. The results of the analysis showed that pH and OC were the most important factors contributing to Pb uptake by wheat grain. Using a cross-species extrapolation approach, the Pb uptake prediction models for cultivar Xiaoyan 22 in different soil Pb levels were satisfactorily applied to six additional non-modeled wheat varieties to develop a prediction model for each variety. Normalization of the bioaccumulation factor (BAF to specific soil physico-chemistry is essential, because doing so could significantly reduce the intra-species variation of different wheat cultivars in predicted Pb transfer and eliminate the influence of soil properties on ecotoxicity parameters for organisms of interest. Finally, the prediction models were successfully verified against published data (including other wheat varieties and crops and used to evaluate the ecological risk of Pb for wheat in contaminated agricultural soils.

  1. Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Lenoir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region to quantify four diversity components: (i total number of species occurring in a region (total γ-diversity, (ii number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific γ-diversity, (iii pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot β-diversity and (iv number of species present per plot (plot α-diversity. We found strong region effects on total γ-diversity, habitat-specific γ-diversity and plot-to-plot β-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot α-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges, but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Our findings are consistent with the contrasting regional Quaternary histories, but we also consider alternative explanatory models. Notably, ecological sorting and habitat connectivity may play a role in the unexpected limited or reversed region effect on plot α-diversity, and may also affect the larger-scale diversity

  2. Integrating effects of species composition and soil properties to predict shifts in montane forest carbon-water relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Toby M; Silva, Lucas C R; Horwath, William R

    2018-05-01

    This study was designed to address a major source of uncertainty pertaining to coupled carbon-water cycles in montane forest ecosystems. The Sierra Nevada of California was used as a model system to investigate connections between the physiological performance of trees and landscape patterns of forest carbon and water use. The intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE)-an index of CO 2 fixed per unit of potential water lost via transpiration-of nine dominant species was determined in replicated transects along an ∼1,500-m elevation gradient, spanning a broad range of climatic conditions and soils derived from three different parent materials. Stable isotope ratios of carbon and oxygen measured at the leaf level were combined with field-based and remotely sensed metrics of stand productivity, revealing that variation in iWUE depends primarily on leaf traits (∼24% of the variability), followed by stand productivity (∼16% of the variability), climatic regime (∼13% of the variability), and soil development (∼12% of the variability). Significant interactions between species composition and soil properties proved useful to predict changes in forest carbon-water relations. On the basis of observed shifts in tree species composition, ongoing since the 1950s and intensified in recent years, an increase in water loss through transpiration (ranging from 10 to 60% depending on parent material) is now expected in mixed conifer forests throughout the region. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  3. How Predictability of Feeding Patches Affects Home Range and Foraging Habitat Selection in Avian Social Scavengers?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monsarrat, S.; Benhamou, S.; Sarrazin, F.; Bessa-Gomes, C.; Bouten, W.; Duriez, O.

    2013-01-01

    Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands

  4. A short-range multi-model ensemble weather prediction system for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, S

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available prediction system (EPS) at the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are examined. The ensemble consists of different forecasts from the 12-km LAM of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) covering the South...

  5. Higher Levels of Albuminuria within the Normal Range Predict Incident Hypertension

    OpenAIRE

    Forman, John P.; Fisher, Naomi D.L.; Schopick, Emily L.; Curhan, Gary C.

    2008-01-01

    Higher levels of albumin excretion within the normal range are associated with cardiovascular disease in high-risk individuals. Whether incremental increases in urinary albumin excretion, even within the normal range, are associated with the development of hypertension in low-risk individuals is unknown. This study included 1065 postmenopausal women from the first Nurses’ Health Study and 1114 premenopausal women from the second Nurses’ Health Study who had an albumin/creatinine ratio

  6. Do voluntary strength, proprioception, range of motion, or postural sway predict occurrence of lateral ankle sprain?

    OpenAIRE

    de Noronha, M; Refshauge, K M; Herbert, R D; Kilbreath, S L

    2006-01-01

    Prevention of ankle sprain, the most common sporting injury, is only possible once risk factors have been identified. Voluntary strength, proprioception, postural sway, and range of motion are possible risk factors. A systematic review was carried out to investigate these possiblities. Eligible studies were those with longitudinal design investigating ankle sprain in subjects aged ⩾15 years. The studies had to have measured range of motion, voluntary strength, proprioception, or postural sway...

  7. PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

    2009-10-01

    Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

  8. Assessing and Predicting Erosion from Off Highway Vehicle Trails in Front-Range Rocky Mountain Watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, M. J.; Silins, U.; Anderson, A.

    2016-12-01

    Off highway vehicle (OHV) trails have the potential to deliver sediment to sensitive headwater streams and increased OHV use is a growing watershed management concern in many Rocky Mountain regions. Predictive tools for estimating erosion and sediment inputs are needed to support assessment and management of erosion from OHV trail networks. The objective of this study was to a) assess erodibility (K factor) and total erosion from OHV trail networks in Rocky Mountain watersheds in south-west Alberta, Canada, and to b) evaluate the applicability of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) for predicting OHV trail erosion to support erosion management strategies. Measured erosion rates and erodibility (K) from rainfall simulation plots on OHV trails during the summers of 2014 and 2015 were compared to USLE predicted erosion from these same trails. Measured erodibility (K) from 23 rainfall simulation plots was highly variable (0.001-0.273 Mg*ha*hr/ha*MJ*mm) as was total seasonal erosion from 52 large trail sections (0.0595-43.3 Mg/ha) across trail segments of variable slope, stoniness, and trail use intensity. In particular, intensity of trail use had a large effect on both erodibility and total erosion that is not presently captured by erodibility indices (K) derived from soil characteristics. Results of this study suggest that while application of USLE for predicting erosion from OHV trail networks may be useful for initial coarse erosion assessment, a better understanding of the effect of factors such as road/trail use intensity on erodibility is needed to support use of USLE or associated erosion prediction tools for road/trail erosion management.

  9. Improvement of Surface Temperature Prediction Using SVR with MOGREPS Data for Short and Medium range over South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, S. J.; Choi, R. K.; Ahn, K. D.; Ha, J. C.; Cho, C. H.

    2014-12-01

    As the Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) has operated Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) with introduction of Unified Model (UM), many attempts have been made to improve predictability in temperature forecast in last years. In this study, post-processing method of MOGREPS for surface temperature prediction is developed with machine learning over 52 locations in South Korea. Past 60-day lag time was used as a training phase of Support Vector Regression (SVR) method for surface temperature forecast model. The selected inputs for SVR are followings: date and surface temperatures from Numerical Weather prediction (NWP), such as GDAPS, individual 24 ensemble members, mean and median of ensemble members for every 3hours for 12 days.To verify the reliability of SVR-based ensemble prediction (SVR-EP), 93 days are used (from March 1 to May 31, 2014). The result yielded improvement of SVR-EP by RMSE value of 16 % throughout entire prediction period against conventional ensemble prediction (EP). In particular, short range predictability of SVR-EP resulted in 18.7% better RMSE for 1~3 day forecast. The mean temperature bias between SVR-EP and EP at all test locations showed around 0.36°C and 1.36°C, respectively. SVR-EP is currently extending for more vigorous sensitivity test, such as increasing training phase and optimizing machine learning model.

  10. Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

    2018-01-01

    To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute

  11. A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species

    OpenAIRE

    Bach, Dominik R

    2015-01-01

    In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and ins...

  12. Getting the Right Traits: Reproductive and Dispersal Characteristics Predict the Invasiveness of Herbaceous Plant Species

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Moravcová, Lenka; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pergl, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 4 (2015), s. 1-16,no.e0123634 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G; GA ČR GA206/05/0323 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : species traits * prediction * invasiveness Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.057, year: 2015

  13. An equation for the prediction of human skin permeability of neutral molecules, ions and ionic species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keda; Abraham, Michael H; Liu, Xiangli

    2017-04-15

    Experimental values of permeability coefficients, as log K p , of chemical compounds across human skin were collected by carefully screening the literature, and adjusted to 37°C for the effect of temperature. The values of log K p for partially ionized acids and bases were separated into those for their neutral and ionic species, forming a total data set of 247 compounds and species (including 35 ionic species). The obtained log K p values have been regressed against Abraham solute descriptors to yield a correlation equation with R 2 =0.866 and SD=0.432 log units. The equation can provide valid predictions for log K p of neutral molecules, ions and ionic species, with predictive R 2 =0.858 and predictive SD=0.445 log units calculated by the leave-one-out statistics. The predicted log K p values for Na + and Et 4 N + are in good agreement with the observed values. We calculated the values of log K p of ketoprofen as a function of the pH of the donor solution, and found that log K p markedly varies only when ketoprofen is largely ionized. This explains why models that neglect ionization of permeants still yield reasonable statistical results. The effect of skin thickness on log K p was investigated by inclusion of two indicator variables, one for intermediate thickness skin and one for full thickness skin, into the above equation. The newly obtained equations were found to be statistically very close to the above equation. Therefore, the thickness of human skin used makes little difference to the experimental values of log K p . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Uniform selection as a primary force reducing population genetic differentiation of cavitation resistance across a species range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Baptiste Lamy

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cavitation resistance to water stress-induced embolism determines plant survival during drought. This adaptive trait has been described as highly variable in a wide range of tree species, but little is known about the extent of genetic and phenotypic variability within species. This information is essential to our understanding of the evolutionary forces that have shaped this trait, and for evaluation of its inclusion in breeding programs. METHODOLOGY: We assessed cavitation resistance (P(50, growth and carbon isotope composition in six Pinus pinaster populations in a provenance and progeny trial. We estimated the heritability of cavitation resistance and compared the distribution of neutral markers (F(ST and quantitative genetic differentiation (Q(ST, for retrospective identification of the evolutionary forces acting on these traits. RESULTS/DISCUSSION: In contrast to growth and carbon isotope composition, no population differentiation was found for cavitation resistance. Heritability was higher than for the other traits, with a low additive genetic variance (h(2 (ns = 0.43±0.18, CV(A = 4.4%. Q(ST was significantly lower than F(ST, indicating uniform selection for P(50, rather than genetic drift. Putative mechanisms underlying Q(ST

  15. Uniform Selection as a Primary Force Reducing Population Genetic Differentiation of Cavitation Resistance across a Species Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Bouffier, Laurent; Burlett, Régis; Plomion, Christophe; Cochard, Hervé; Delzon, Sylvain

    2011-01-01

    Background Cavitation resistance to water stress-induced embolism determines plant survival during drought. This adaptive trait has been described as highly variable in a wide range of tree species, but little is known about the extent of genetic and phenotypic variability within species. This information is essential to our understanding of the evolutionary forces that have shaped this trait, and for evaluation of its inclusion in breeding programs. Methodology We assessed cavitation resistance (P 50), growth and carbon isotope composition in six Pinus pinaster populations in a provenance and progeny trial. We estimated the heritability of cavitation resistance and compared the distribution of neutral markers (F ST) and quantitative genetic differentiation (Q ST), for retrospective identification of the evolutionary forces acting on these traits. Results/Discussion In contrast to growth and carbon isotope composition, no population differentiation was found for cavitation resistance. Heritability was higher than for the other traits, with a low additive genetic variance (h2 ns = 0.43±0.18, CVA = 4.4%). Q ST was significantly lower than F ST, indicating uniform selection for P 50, rather than genetic drift. Putative mechanisms underlying QST

  16. Leaf Area Prediction Using Three Alternative Sampling Methods for Seven Sierra Nevada Conifer Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dryw A. Jones

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of projected tree leaf area using allometric relationships with sapwood cross-sectional area is common in tree- and stand-level production studies. Measuring sapwood is difficult and often requires destructive sampling. This study tested multiple leaf area prediction models across seven diverse conifer species in the Sierra Nevada of California. The best-fit whole tree leaf area prediction model for overall simplicity, accuracy, and utility for all seven species was a nonlinear model with basal area as the primary covariate. A new non-destructive procedure was introduced to extend the branch summation approach to leaf area data collection on trees that cannot be destructively sampled. There were no significant differences between fixed effects assigned to sampling procedures, indicating that data from the tested sampling procedures can be combined for whole tree leaf area modeling purposes. These results indicate that, for the species sampled, accurate leaf area estimates can be obtained through partially-destructive sampling and using common forest inventory data.

  17. Artificial neural network model to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duchesne, Marc A. [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Macchi, Arturo [Chemical and Biological Engineering Department, University of Ottawa, 161 Louis Pasteur, Ottawa, Ont. (Canada); Lu, Dennis Y.; Hughes, Robin W.; McCalden, David; Anthony, Edward J. [CanmetENERGY, 1 Haanel Drive, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-08-15

    Threshold slag viscosity heuristics are often used for the initial assessment of coal gasification projects. Slag viscosity predictions are also required for advanced combustion and gasification models. Due to unsatisfactory performance of theoretical equations, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict slag viscosity over a broad range of temperatures and slag compositions. This model outperforms other slag viscosity models, resulting in an average error factor of 5.05 which is lower than the best obtained with other available models. Genesee coal ash viscosity predictions were made to investigate the effect of adding Canadian limestone and dolomite. The results indicate that magnesium in the fluxing agent provides a greater viscosity reduction than calcium for the threshold slag tapping temperature range. (author)

  18. Bayesian prediction of bacterial growth temperature range based on genome sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dan Børge; Vesth, Tammi Camilla; Hallin, Peter Fischer

    2012-01-01

    Background: The preferred habitat of a given bacterium can provide a hint of which types of enzymes of potential industrial interest it might produce. These might include enzymes that are stable and active at very high or very low temperatures. Being able to accurately predict this based...... on a genomic sequence, would thus allow for an efficient and targeted search for production organisms, reducing the need for culturing experiments. Results: This study found a total of 40 protein families useful for distinction between three thermophilicity classes (thermophiles, mesophiles and psychrophiles...... that protein families associated with specific thermophilicity classes can provide effective input data for thermophilicity prediction, and that the naive Bayesian approach is effective for such a task. The program created for this study is able to efficiently distinguish between thermophilic, mesophilic...

  19. Short-range dynamics and prediction of mesoscale flow patterns in the MISTRAL field experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R.O.; Kaufmann, P.; Talkner, P. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    In a limited area of about 50 km by 50 km with complex topography, wind measurements on a dense network were performed during the MISTRAL field experiment in 1991-1992. From these data the characteristic wind fields were identified by an automated classification method. The dynamics of the resulting twelve typical regional flow patterns is studied. It is discussed how transitions between the flow patterns take place and how well the transition probabilities can be described in the framework of a Markov model. Guided by this discussion, a variety of prediction models were tested which allow a short-term forecast of the flow pattern type. It is found that a prediction model which uses forecast information from the synoptic scale has the best forecast skill. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  20. Personality predicts spatial responses to food manipulations in free-ranging great tits (Parus major)

    OpenAIRE

    van Overveld, Thijs; Matthysen, Erik

    2009-01-01

    Personality differences measured under standardized lab-conditions are assumed to reflect differences in the way individuals cope with spatio-temporal changes in their natural environment, but few studies have examined how these are expressed in the field. We tested whether exploratory behaviour in a novel environment predicts how free-living individual great tits (Parus major) react to a change in food supply. We temporarily removed food at feeding stations during two summers and recorded th...

  1. Prediction of Dominant Forest Tree Species Using QuickBird and Environmental Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh Abdollahnejad

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distribution of plants is one of the indirect methods for predicting the properties of plants and can be defined based on the relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables. In this article, we introduce a new method for the spatial prediction of the dominant trees and species, through a combination of environmental and satellite data. Based on the basal area factor (BAF frequency for each tree species in a total of 518 sample plots, the dominant tree species were determined for each plot. Also, topographical maps of primary and secondary properties were prepared using the digital elevation model (DEM. Categories of soil and the climate maps database of the Doctor Bahramnia Forestry Plan were extracted as well. After pre-processing and processing of spectral data, the pixel values at the sample locations in all the independent factors such as spectral and non-spectral data, were extracted. The modelling rates of tree and shrub species diversity using data mining algorithms of 80% of the sampling plots were taken. Assessment of model accuracy was conducted using 20% of samples and evaluation criteria. Random forest (RF, support vector machine (SVM and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN algorithms were used for spatial distribution modelling of dominant species groups using environmental and spectral variables from 80% of the sample plots. Results showed physiographic factors, especially altitude in combination with soil and climate factors as the most important variables in the distribution of species, while the best model was created by the integration of physiographic factors (in combination with soil and climate with an overall accuracy of 63.85%. In addition, the results of the comparison between the algorithms, showed that the RF algorithm was the most accurate in modelling the diversity.

  2. Short-Range Prediction of the Zone of Moving Vehicles in Arterial Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rouzbeh Forouzandeh Jonaghani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In many moving object databases, future locations of vehicles in arterial networks are predicted. While most of studies apply the frequent behavior of historical trajectories or vehicles’ recent kinematics as the basis of predictions, consideration of the dynamics of the intersections is mostly neglected. Signalized intersections make vehicles experience different delays, which vary from zero to some minutes based on the traffic state at intersections. In the absence of traffic signal information (red and green times of traffic signal phases, the queue lengths, approaching traffic volume, turning volumes to each intersection leg, etc., the experienced delays in traffic signals are random variables. In this paper, we model the probability distribution function (PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF of the delay for any point in the arterial networks based on a spatiotemporal model of the queue at the intersection. The probability of the presence of a vehicle in a zone is determined based on the modeled probability function of the delay. A comparison between the results of the proposed method and a well-known kinematic-based method indicates a significant improvement in the precisions of the predictions.

  3. Generating linear regression model to predict motor functions by use of laser range finder during TUG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Daiki; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Hotta, Takayuki; Tashiro, Yuto; Morino, Saori; Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nozaki, Yuma; Hirata, Hinako; Yamaguchi, Moe; Yorozu, Ayanori; Takahashi, Masaki; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate which spatial and temporal parameters of the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test are associated with motor function in elderly individuals. This study included 99 community-dwelling women aged 72.9 ± 6.3 years. Step length, step width, single support time, variability of the aforementioned parameters, gait velocity, cadence, reaction time from starting signal to first step, and minimum distance between the foot and a marker placed to 3 in front of the chair were measured using our analysis system. The 10-m walk test, five times sit-to-stand (FTSTS) test, and one-leg standing (OLS) test were used to assess motor function. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine which TUG test parameters were associated with each motor function test. Finally, we calculated a predictive model for each motor function test using each regression coefficient. In stepwise linear regression analysis, step length and cadence were significantly associated with the 10-m walk test, FTSTS and OLS test. Reaction time was associated with the FTSTS test, and step width was associated with the OLS test. Each predictive model showed a strong correlation with the 10-m walk test and OLS test (P motor function test. Moreover, the TUG test time regarded as the lower extremity function and mobility has strong predictive ability in each motor function test. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting species diversity of benthic communities within turbid nearshore using full-waveform bathymetric LiDAR and machine learners.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Collin

    Full Text Available Epi-macrobenthic species richness, abundance and composition are linked with type, assemblage and structural complexity of seabed habitat within coastal ecosystems. However, the evaluation of these habitats is highly hindered by limitations related to both waterborne surveys (slow acquisition, shallow water and low reactivity and water clarity (turbid for most coastal areas. Substratum type/diversity and bathymetric features were elucidated using a supervised method applied to airborne bathymetric LiDAR waveforms over Saint-Siméon-Bonaventure's nearshore area (Gulf of Saint-Lawrence, Québec, Canada. High-resolution underwater photographs were taken at three hundred stations across an 8-km(2 study area. Seven models based upon state-of-the-art machine learning techniques such as Naïve Bayes, Regression Tree, Classification Tree, C 4.5, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and CN2 learners were tested for predicting eight epi-macrobenthic species diversity metrics as a function of the class number. The Random Forest outperformed other models with a three-discretized Simpson index applied to epi-macrobenthic communities, explaining 69% (Classification Accuracy of its variability by mean bathymetry, time range and skewness derived from the LiDAR waveform. Corroborating marine ecological theory, areas with low Simpson epi-macrobenthic diversity responded to low water depths, high skewness and time range, whereas higher Simpson diversity relied upon deeper bottoms (correlated with stronger hydrodynamics and low skewness and time range. The degree of species heterogeneity was therefore positively linked with the degree of the structural complexity of the benthic cover. This work underpins that fully exploited bathymetric LiDAR (not only bathymetrically derived by-products, coupled with proficient machine learner, is able to rapidly predict habitat characteristics at a spatial resolution relevant to epi-macrobenthos diversity, ranging from clear to

  5. EEG transients in the sigma range during non-REM sleep predict learning in dogs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iotchev, I.B.; Kis, A.; Bodizs, R.; Luijtelaar, E.L.J.M. van; Kubinyi, E.

    2017-01-01

    Sleep spindles are phasic bursts of thalamo-cortical activity, visible in the cortex as transient oscillations in the sigma range (usually defined in humans as 12-14 or 9-16 Hz). They have been associated with sleep-dependent memory consolidation and sleep stability in humans and rodents.

  6. A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Dominik R

    2015-04-07

    In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and instructed attention, and do not explain why startle reflex modulation evolved. Here, we fill this lacuna by developing a normative cost minimisation model based on Bayesian optimality principles. This model predicts the observed pattern of startle modification by rewards, punishments, instructed attention, and several other states. Moreover, the mathematical formalism furnishes predictions that can be tested experimentally. Comparing the model with existing data suggests a specific neural implementation of the underlying computations which yields close approximations to the optimal solution under most circumstances. This analysis puts startle modification into the framework of Bayesian decision theory and predictive coding, and illustrates the importance of an adaptive perspective to interpret defensive behaviour across species. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting summer site occupancy for an invasive species, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula, in an urban environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy L Adams

    Full Text Available Invasive species are often favoured in fragmented, highly-modified, human-dominated landscapes such as urban areas. Because successful invasive urban adapters can occupy habitat that is quite different from that in their original range, effective management programmes for invasive species in urban areas require an understanding of distribution, habitat and resource requirements at a local scale that is tailored to the fine-scale heterogeneity typical of urban landscapes. The common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula is one of New Zealand's most destructive invasive pest species. As brushtail possums traditionally occupy forest habitat, control in New Zealand has focussed on rural and forest habitats, and forest fragments in cities. However, as successful urban adapters, possums may be occupying a wider range of habitats. Here we use site occupancy methods to determine the distribution of brushtail possums across five distinguishable urban habitat types during summer, which is when possums have the greatest impacts on breeding birds. We collected data on possum presence/absence and habitat characteristics, including possible sources of supplementary food (fruit trees, vegetable gardens, compost heaps, and the availability of forest fragments from 150 survey locations. Predictive distribution models constructed using the programme PRESENCE revealed that while occupancy rates were highest in forest fragments, possums were still present across a large proportion of residential habitat with occupancy decreasing as housing density increased and green cover decreased. The presence of supplementary food sources was important in predicting possum occupancy, which may reflect the high nutritional value of these food types. Additionally, occupancy decreased as the proportion of forest fragment decreased, indicating the importance of forest fragments in determining possum distribution. Control operations to protect native birds from possum predation in

  8. Predicting animal home-range structure and transitions using a multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck biased random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breed, Greg A.; Golson, Emily A.; Tinker, M. Tim

    2017-01-01

    The home‐range concept is central in animal ecology and behavior, and numerous mechanistic models have been developed to understand home range formation and maintenance. These mechanistic models usually assume a single, contiguous home range. Here we describe and implement a simple home‐range model that can accommodate multiple home‐range centers, form complex shapes, allow discontinuities in use patterns, and infer how external and internal variables affect movement and use patterns. The model assumes individuals associate with two or more home‐range centers and move among them with some estimable probability. Movement in and around home‐range centers is governed by a two‐dimensional Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process, while transitions between centers are modeled as a stochastic state‐switching process. We augmented this base model by introducing environmental and demographic covariates that modify transition probabilities between home‐range centers and can be estimated to provide insight into the movement process. We demonstrate the model using telemetry data from sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in California. The model was fit using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which estimated transition probabilities, as well as unique Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck diffusion and centralizing tendency parameters. Estimated parameters could then be used to simulate movement and space use that was virtually indistinguishable from real data. We used Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores to assess model fit and determined that both wind and reproductive status were predictive of transitions between home‐range centers. Females were less likely to move between home‐range centers on windy days, less likely to move between centers when tending pups, and much more likely to move between centers just after weaning a pup. These tendencies are predicted by theoretical movement rules but were not previously known and show that our model can extract meaningful

  9. Predicting animal home-range structure and transitions using a multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck biased random walk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breed, Greg A; Golson, Emily A; Tinker, M Tim

    2017-01-01

    The home-range concept is central in animal ecology and behavior, and numerous mechanistic models have been developed to understand home range formation and maintenance. These mechanistic models usually assume a single, contiguous home range. Here we describe and implement a simple home-range model that can accommodate multiple home-range centers, form complex shapes, allow discontinuities in use patterns, and infer how external and internal variables affect movement and use patterns. The model assumes individuals associate with two or more home-range centers and move among them with some estimable probability. Movement in and around home-range centers is governed by a two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, while transitions between centers are modeled as a stochastic state-switching process. We augmented this base model by introducing environmental and demographic covariates that modify transition probabilities between home-range centers and can be estimated to provide insight into the movement process. We demonstrate the model using telemetry data from sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in California. The model was fit using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which estimated transition probabilities, as well as unique Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion and centralizing tendency parameters. Estimated parameters could then be used to simulate movement and space use that was virtually indistinguishable from real data. We used Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores to assess model fit and determined that both wind and reproductive status were predictive of transitions between home-range centers. Females were less likely to move between home-range centers on windy days, less likely to move between centers when tending pups, and much more likely to move between centers just after weaning a pup. These tendencies are predicted by theoretical movement rules but were not previously known and show that our model can extract meaningful behavioral insight from complex

  10. Short-Range prediction of a Mediterranean Severe weather event using EnKF: Configuration tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrio Carrio, Diego Saul; Homar Santaner, Víctor

    2014-05-01

    The afternoon of 4th October 2007, severe damaging winds and torrential rainfall affected the Island of Mallorca. This storm produced F2-F3 tornadoes in the vicinity of Palma, with one person killed and estimated damages to property exceeding 10 M€. Several studies have analysed the meteorological context in which this episode unfolded, describing the formation of a train of multiple thunderstorms along a warm front and the evolution of a squall line organized from convective activity initiated offshore Murcia during that morning. Couhet et al. (2011) attributed the correct simulation of the convective system and particularly its organization as a squall line to the correct representation of a convergence line at low-levels over the Alboran Sea during the first hours of the day. The numerical prediction of mesoscale phenomena which initiates, organizes and evolves over the sea is an extremely demanding challenge of great importance for coastal regions. In this study, we investigate the skill of a mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to predict the severe phenomena occurred on 4th October 2007. We use an Ensemble Kalman Filter which assimilates conventional (surface, radiosonde and AMDAR) data using the DART implementation from (NCAR). On the one hand, we analyse the potential of the assimilation cycle to advect critical observational data towards decisive data-void areas over the sea. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of the ensemble products to the ensemble size, grid resolution, assimilation period and physics diversity in the mesoscale model. In particular, we focus on the effect of these numerical configurations on the representation of the convective activity and the precipitation field, as valuable predictands of high impact weather. Results show that the 6-h EnKF assimilation period produces initial fields that successfully represent the environment in which initiation occurred and thus the derived numerical predictions render improved

  11. Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Kimberley, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M; Haack, Robert A; Cavey, Joseph F

    2014-03-01

    Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

  12. Floral scent composition predicts bee pollination system in five butterfly bush (Buddleja, Scrophulariaceae) species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, W-C; Chen, G; Vereecken, N J; Dunn, B L; Ma, Y-P; Sun, W-B

    2015-01-01

    Traditionally, plant-pollinator interactions have been interpreted as pollination syndrome. However, the validity of pollination syndrome has been widely doubted in modern studies of pollination ecology. The pollination ecology of five Asian Buddleja species, B. asiatica, B. crispa, B. forrestii, B. macrostachya and B. myriantha, in the Sino-Himalayan region in Asia, flowering in different local seasons, with scented inflorescences were investigated during 2011 and 2012. These five species exhibited diverse floral traits, with narrow and long corolla tubes and concealed nectar. According to their floral morphology, larger bees and Lepidoptera were expected to be the major pollinators. However, field observations showed that only larger bees (honeybee/bumblebee) were the primary pollinators, ranging from 77.95% to 97.90% of total visits. In this study, floral scents of each species were also analysed using coupled gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Although the five Buddleja species emitted differentiated floral scent compositions, our results showed that floral scents of the five species are dominated by substances that can serve as attractive signals to bees, including species-specific scent compounds and principal compounds with larger relative amounts. This suggests that floral scent compositions are closely associated with the principal pollinator assemblages in these five species. Therefore, we conclude that floral scent compositions rather than floral morphology traits should be used to interpret plant-pollinator interactions in these Asian Buddleja species. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  13. Demographical history and palaeodistribution modelling show range shift towards Amazon Basin for a Neotropical tree species in the LGM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitorino, Luciana Cristina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Terribile, Levi Carina; Collevatti, Rosane G

    2016-10-13

    We studied the phylogeography and demographical history of Tabebuia serratifolia (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). We specifically tested if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the so called South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, using ecological niche modelling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. We sampled 235 individuals of T. serratifolia in 17 populations in Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at three intergenic chloroplast regions and ITS nuclear ribosomal DNA. Coalescent analyses showed a demographical expansion at the last c. 130 ka (thousand years before present). Simulations and ENM also showed that the current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range expansion and range shift towards the Amazon Basin during the colder and arid climatic conditions associated with the LGM, matching the expected for the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, although contrasting to the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis. Populations in more stable areas or with higher suitability through time showed higher genetic diversity. Postglacial range shift towards the Southeast and Atlantic coast may have led to spatial genome assortment due to leading edge colonization as the species tracks suitable environments, leading to lower genetic diversity in populations at higher distance from the distribution centroid at 21 ka. Haplotype sharing or common ancestry among populations from Caatinga in Northeast Brazil, Atlantic Forest in Southeast and Cerrado biome and ENM evince the past connection among these biomes.

  14. Effects of native and exotic range-expanding plant species on taxonomic and functional composition of nematodes in the soil food web

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morrien, E.; Duyts, H.; Van der Putten, W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Due to climate warming, many plant species shift ranges towards higher latitudes. Plants can disperse faster than most soil biota, however, little is known about how range-expanding plants in the new range will establish interactions with the resident soil food web. In this paper we examine how the

  15. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  16. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. White

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal. Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  17. Increasing species richness of the macrozoobenthic fauna on tidal flats of the Wadden Sea by local range expansion and invasion of exotic species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beukema, J. J.; Dekker, R.

    2011-06-01

    A 40-y series of consistently collected samples (15 fixed sampling sites, constant sampled area of 15 × 0.95 m2, annual sampling only in late-winter/early-spring seasons, and consistent sieving and sorting procedures; restriction to 50 easily recognizable species) of macrozoobenthos on Balgzand, a tidal flat area in the westernmost part of the Wadden Sea (The Netherlands), revealed significantly increasing trends of species richness. Total numbers of species annually encountered increased from ~28 to ~38. Mean species density (number of species found per sampling site) increased from ~13 to ~18 per 0.95 m2. During the 40 years of the 1970-2009 period of observation, 4 exotic species invaded the area: (in order of first appearance) Ensis directus, Marenzelleria viridis, Crassostrea gigas, and Hemigrapsus takanoi. Another 5 species recently moved to Balgzand from nearby (subtidal) locations. Together, these 9 new species on the tidal flats explained by far most of the increase in total species numbers, but accounted for only one-third of the observed increase in species density (as a consequence of the restricted distribution of most of them). Species density increased particularly by a substantial number of species that showed increasing trends in the numbers of tidal flat sites they occupied. Most of these wider-spreading species were found to suffer from cold winters. During the 40-y period of observation, winter temperatures rose by about 2°C and cold winters became less frequent. The mean number of cold-sensitive species found per site significantly increased by almost 2 per 0.95 m2. Among the other species (not sensitive to low winter temperatures), 6 showed a rising and 2 a declining trend in number of occupied sites, resulting in a net long-term increase in species density amounting to another gain of 1.6 per 0.95 m2. Half of the 50 studied species did not show such long-term trend, nor were invaders. Thus, each of 3 groups (local or alien invaders

  18. Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

    2017-06-01

    Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

  19. The potential of selected macroalgal species for treatment of AMD at different pH ranges in temperate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberholster, Paul J; Cheng, Po-Hsun; Botha, Anna-Maria; Genthe, Bettina

    2014-09-01

    The metal bioaccumulation potential of selected macroalgae species at different pH ranges was study for usage as part of a possible secondary passive acid mine drainage (AMD) treatment technology in algae ponds. Two separate studies were conducted to determine the suitability of macroalgae for passive treatment when metabolic processes in macrophytes and microorganisms in constructed wetlands decrease during winter months. In the field study, the bioconcentration of metals (mg/kg dry weight) measured in the benthic macroalgae mats was in the following order: site 1. Oedogonium crassum Al > Fe > Mn > Zn; site 2. Klebsormidium klebsii, Al > Fe > Mn > Zn; site 3. Microspora tumidula, Fe > Al > Mn > Zn and site 4. M. tumidula, Fe > Mn > Al > Zn. In the laboratory study, cultured macroalgae K. klebsii, O. crassum and M. tumidula isolated from the field sampling sites were exposed to three different pH values (3, 5 and 7), while bioaccumulation of the metals, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn and glutathione S-transferase (GST) activity were measured in the different selected algae species at a constant water temperature of 14 °C. Bioaccumulation of Al was the highest for O. crassum followed by K. klebsii and M. tumidula (p macroalgae O. crassum at all three tested pH values under constant low water temperature. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Higher levels of albuminuria within the normal range predict incident hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, John P; Fisher, Naomi D L; Schopick, Emily L; Curhan, Gary C

    2008-10-01

    Higher levels of albumin excretion within the normal range are associated with cardiovascular disease in high-risk individuals. Whether incremental increases in urinary albumin excretion, even within the normal range, are associated with the development of hypertension in low-risk individuals is unknown. This study included 1065 postmenopausal women from the first Nurses' Health Study and 1114 premenopausal women from the second Nurses' Health Study who had an albumin/creatinine ratio who did not have diabetes or hypertension. Among the older women, 271 incident cases of hypertension occurred during 4 yr of follow-up, and among the younger women, 296 incident cases of hypertension occurred during 8 yr of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine prospectively the association between the albumin/creatinine ratio and incident hypertension after adjustment for age, body mass index, estimated GFR, baseline BP, physical activity, smoking, and family history of hypertension. Participants who had an albumin/creatinine ratio in the highest quartile (4.34 to 24.17 mg/g for older women and 3.68 to 23.84 mg/g for younger women) were more likely to develop hypertension than those who had an albumin/creatinine ratio in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio 1.76 [95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.56] and hazard ratio 1.35 [95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.91] for older and younger women, respectively). Higher albumin/creatinine ratios, even within the normal range, are independently associated with increased risk for development of hypertension among women without diabetes. The definition of normal albumin excretion should be reevaluated.

  1. Prediction of operating parameters range for ammonia removal unit in coke making by-products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Hari Prakash; Kumar, Rajesh; Bhattacharjee, Arunabh; Lingam, Ravi Kumar; Roy, Abhijit; Tiwary, Shambhu

    2018-02-01

    Coke oven gas treatment plants are well equipped with distributed control systems (DCS) and therefore recording the vast amount of operational data efficiently. Analyzing the stored information manually from historians is practically impossible. In this study, data mining technique was examined for lowering the ammonia concentration in clean coke oven gas. Results confirm that concentration of ammonia in clean coke oven gas depends on the average PCDC temperature; gas scrubber temperatures stripped liquor flow, stripped liquor concentration and stripped liquor temperature. The optimum operating ranges of the above dependent parameters using data mining technique for lowering the concentration of ammonia is described in this paper.

  2. Reranking candidate gene models with cross-species comparison for improved gene prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pereira Fernando CN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most gene finders score candidate gene models with state-based methods, typically HMMs, by combining local properties (coding potential, splice donor and acceptor patterns, etc. Competing models with similar state-based scores may be distinguishable with additional information. In particular, functional and comparative genomics datasets may help to select among competing models of comparable probability by exploiting features likely to be associated with the correct gene models, such as conserved exon/intron structure or protein sequence features. Results We have investigated the utility of a simple post-processing step for selecting among a set of alternative gene models, using global scoring rules to rerank competing models for more accurate prediction. For each gene locus, we first generate the K best candidate gene models using the gene finder Evigan, and then rerank these models using comparisons with putative orthologous genes from closely-related species. Candidate gene models with lower scores in the original gene finder may be selected if they exhibit strong similarity to probable orthologs in coding sequence, splice site location, or signal peptide occurrence. Experiments on Drosophila melanogaster demonstrate that reranking based on cross-species comparison outperforms the best gene models identified by Evigan alone, and also outperforms the comparative gene finders GeneWise and Augustus+. Conclusion Reranking gene models with cross-species comparison improves gene prediction accuracy. This straightforward method can be readily adapted to incorporate additional lines of evidence, as it requires only a ranked source of candidate gene models.

  3. Remotely sensed wind speed predicts soaring behaviour in a wide-ranging pelagic seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Rory; Shoji, Akiko; Fayet, Annette L; Perrins, Chris M; Guilford, Tim; Freeman, Robin

    2017-07-01

    Global wind patterns affect flight strategies in many birds, including pelagic seabirds, many of which use wind-powered soaring to reduce energy costs during at-sea foraging trips and migration. Such long-distance movement patterns are underpinned by local interactions between wind conditions and flight behaviour, but these fine-scale relationships are far less well understood. Here we show that remotely sensed ocean wind speed and direction are highly significant predictors of soaring behaviour in a migratory pelagic seabird, the Manx shearwater ( Puffinus puffinus ). We used high-frequency GPS tracking data (10 Hz) and statistical behaviour state classification to identify two energetic modes in at-sea flight, corresponding to flap-like and soar-like flight. We show that soaring is significantly more likely to occur in tailwinds and crosswinds above a wind speed threshold of around 8 m s -1 , suggesting that these conditions enable birds to reduce metabolic costs by preferentially soaring over flapping. Our results suggest a behavioural mechanism by which wind conditions may shape foraging and migration ecology in pelagic seabirds, and thus indicate that shifts in wind patterns driven by climate change could impact this and other species. They also emphasize the emerging potential of high-frequency GPS biologgers to provide detailed quantitative insights into fine-scale flight behaviour in free-living animals. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. Application of Back Trajectory Model to Predict Long Range Transport of Pollutant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shamsiah Abdul Rahman; Mohd Suhaimi Hamzah; Mohd Suhaimi Elias

    2011-01-01

    Trans-boundary haze pollution in Malaysia has become an issue that created a public attention over the past several years. The presence of haze not only caused by internal and external sources but it sometime coincided with the El Nino phenomenon which prolonged the dry season during the southwest monsoon in May to September. In this study fine particulate data (PM 2.5) of Klang Valley region covering the period from 1997 to 2008 were used to investigate the source location that responsible for the long range transport of pollutant. Back trajectory model the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) was used to calculate the air mass backward trajectories up to 120 hours (5 days) for the days when fine particle were sampled. (author)

  5. Criterion 1: Conservation of biological diversity - Indicator 8: The number of forest dependent species that occupy a small portion of their former range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Michael S. Knowles; Jason McNees

    2003-01-01

    This indicator measures the portion of a species' historical distribution that is currently occupied as a surrogate measure of genetic diversity. Based on data for 1,642 terrestrial animals associated with forests, most species (88 percent) were found to fully occupy their historic range - at least as measured by coarse state-level occurrence patterns. Of the 193...

  6. Status of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1863) throughout the species range, threats to survival, and prognosis for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, L. R.; Drauch Schreier, Andrea; Lepla, K.; McAdam, S. O.; McLellan, J; Parsley, Michael J.; Paragamian, V L; Young, S P

    2016-01-01

    White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus (WS), are distributed throughout three major river basins on the West Coast of North America: the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Columbia, and Fraser River drainages. Considered the largest North American freshwater fish, some WS use estuarine habitat and make limited marine movements between river basins. Some populations are listed by the United States or Canada as threatened or endangered (upper Columbia River above Grand Coulee Dam; Kootenai River; lower, middle and, upper Fraser River and Nechako River), while others do not warrant federal listing at this time (Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers; Columbia River below Grand Coulee Dam; Snake River). Threats that impact WS throughout the species’ range include fishing effects and habitat alteration and degradation. Several populations suffer from recruitment limitations or collapse due to high early life mortality associated with these threats. Efforts to preserve WS populations include annual monitoring, harvest restrictions, habitat restoration, and conservation aquaculture. This paper provides a review of current knowledge on WS life history, ecology, physiology, behavior, and genetics and presents the status of WS in each drainage. Ongoing management and conservation efforts and additional research needs are identified to address present and future risks to the species.

  7. On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogachev, Mikhail I.; Bunde, Armin

    2011-06-01

    We study the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory in the presence of additive white noise using two different approaches: (i) the precursory pattern recognition technique (PRT) that exploits solely the information about short-term precursors, and (ii) the return interval approach (RIA) that exploits long-range memory incorporated in the elapsed time after the last extreme event. We find that the PRT always performs better when only linear memory is present. In the presence of nonlinear memory, both methods demonstrate comparable efficiency in the absence of white noise. When additional white noise is present in the record (which is the case in most observational records), the efficiency of the PRT decreases monotonously with increasing noise level. In contrast, the RIA shows an abrupt transition between a phase of low level noise where the prediction is as good as in the absence of noise, and a phase of high level noise where the prediction becomes poor. In the phase of low and intermediate noise the RIA predicts considerably better than the PRT, which explains our recent findings in physiological and financial records.

  8. Range extension and morphological characterization of rhodolith-forming species (Corallinales, Rhodophyta) from shallow water in the Mexican South Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peralta-García, Edith Concepción; Rosas-Alquicira, Edgar Francisco

    2014-12-01

    Living rhodolith beds are widely distributed along the Eastern Pacific ocean. Despite their widespread distribution, little is known about the rhodolith-forming species from shallow water in the Mexican South Pacific. Many taxonomic and morphological studies about rhodoliths have been carried out in the Gulf of California, where the forming species belong to the Hapalidiaceae and Corallinaceae families. This paper is the first report on the occurrence of the rhodolith-forming Hapalidiaceae species Lithothamnion muelleri and Phymatolithon repandum at three sites in the Mexican South Pacific. The branch density, maximum length and sphericity were measured for each determined species. Rhodoliths were distributed between 4 and 6 m depth, but differences in the branch density between species and sites were not found. Finally, the present record of L. muelleri fills the gap in the species distribution along the Eastern Pacific ocean, while the record of P. repandum is the first of the species in the region.

  9. Structural prediction and analysis of VIH-related peptides from selected crustacean species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagaraju, Ganji Purna Chandra; Kumari, Nunna Siva; Prasad, Ganji Lakshmi Vara; Rajitha, Balney; Meenu, Madan; Rao, Manam Sreenivasa; Naik, Bannoth Reddya

    2009-08-17

    The tentative elucidation of the 3D-structure of vitellogenesis inhibiting hormone (VIH) peptides is conversely underprivileged by difficulties in gaining enough peptide or protein, diffracting crystals, and numerous extra technical aspects. As a result, no structural information is available for VIH peptide sequences registered in the Genbank. In this situation, it is not surprising that predictive methods have achieved great interest. Here, in this study the molt-inhibiting hormone (MIH) of the kuruma prawn (Marsupenaeus japonicus) is used, to predict the structure of four VIHrelated peptides in the crustacean species. The high similarity of the 3D-structures and the calculated physiochemical characteristics of these peptides suggest a common fold for the entire family.

  10. Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gálvez, Rosa; Musella, Vicenzo; Descalzo, Miguel A; Montoya, Ana; Checa, Rocío; Marino, Valentina; Martín, Oihane; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Rinaldi, Laura; Miró, Guadalupe

    2017-09-19

    The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013-2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size. The models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) "GFDL-CM3" and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country. Predictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

  11. Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P.

    2014-01-01

    Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR–SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. - Highlights: • We investigate relationships between σp and log-NOEC in eight species. • The QICAR–SSD model, FACR, and CMC/CCC were used to predict CCCs. • They are as a supplement to screening for toxicities, criteria and standards. - CCCs for 34 metals/metalloids were predicted by use of QICAR–SSD model and FACR method

  12. Development of migration prediction system (MIGSTEM) for cationic species of radionuclides through soil layers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnuki, Toshihiko; Takebe, Shinichi; Yamamoto, Tadatoshi

    1989-01-01

    The migration prediction system (MIGSTEM) has been developed for estimating the migration of cationic species of radionuclides through soil layers systematically. The MIGSTEM consists of the migration experiments, the one-dimensional fitting code (inverse analysis code) for determining retardation factor and dispersivity (migration factors) and the three-dimensional differential code (prediction code) for estimating the migration of the radionuclides. The migration experiments are carried out for obtaining the concentration profiles of the radionuclides in unsaturated and saturated soil layers. Using the inverse analysis code, the migration factors are obtained at one time by fitting the concentration profiles calculated to those observed. The prediction code can give the contours of concentration and the one-dimensional concentration profiles at selected time, as well as the changing in the concentration at a selected position with time. The validity of the MIGSTEM was obtained by the benchmark test on the prediction and inverse analysis codes. The MIGSTEM was applied to estimate the migration of Sr 2+ through the sandy soil. (author)

  13. Determination of Germination Response to Temperature and Water Potential for a Wide Range of Cover Crop Species and Related Functional Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribouillois, Hélène; Dürr, Carolyne; Demilly, Didier; Wagner, Marie-Hélène; Justes, Eric

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of species can be sown as cover crops during fallow periods to provide various ecosystem services. Plant establishment is a key stage, especially when sowing occurs in summer with high soil temperatures and low water availability. The aim of this study was to determine the response of germination to temperature and water potential for diverse cover crop species. Based on these characteristics, we developed contrasting functional groups that group species with the same germination ability, which may be useful to adapt species choice to climatic sowing conditions. Germination of 36 different species from six botanical families was measured in the laboratory at eight temperatures ranging from 4.5-43°C and at four water potentials. Final germination percentages, germination rate, cardinal temperatures, base temperature and base water potential were calculated for each species. Optimal temperatures varied from 21.3-37.2°C, maximum temperatures at which the species could germinate varied from 27.7-43.0°C and base water potentials varied from -0.1 to -2.6 MPa. Most cover crops were adapted to summer sowing with a relatively high mean optimal temperature for germination, but some Fabaceae species were more sensitive to high temperatures. Species mainly from Poaceae and Brassicaceae were the most resistant to water deficit and germinated under a low base water potential. Species were classified, independent of family, according to their ability to germinate under a range of temperatures and according to their base water potential in order to group species by functional germination groups. These groups may help in choosing the most adapted cover crop species to sow based on climatic conditions in order to favor plant establishment and the services provided by cover crops during fallow periods. Our data can also be useful as germination parameters in crop models to simulate the emergence of cover crops under different pedoclimatic conditions and crop

  14. Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelieri, Cintia Camila Silva; Adams-Hosking, Christine; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Souza, Marcelo Pereira; McAlpine, Clive Alexander

    2016-01-01

    A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental

  15. Predicting the establishment success of introduced target species in grassland restoration by functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engst, Karina; Baasch, Annett; Bruelheide, Helge

    2017-09-01

    Species-rich semi-natural grasslands are highly endangered habitats in Central Europe and numerous restoration efforts have been made to compensate for the losses in the last decades. However, some plant species could become more easily established than others. The establishment success of 37 species was analyzed over 6 years at two study sites of a restoration project in Germany where hay transfer and sowing of threshing material in combination with additional sowing were applied. The effects of the restoration method applied, time since the restoration took place, traits related to germination, dispersal, and reproduction, and combinations of these traits on the establishment were analyzed. While the specific restoration method of how seeds were transferred played a subordinate role, the establishment success depended in particular on traits such as flower season or the lifeform. Species flowering in autumn, such as Pastinaca sativa and Serratula tinctoria , became established better than species flowering in other seasons, probably because they could complete their life cycle, resulting in increasingly stronger seed pressure with time. Geophytes, like Allium angulosum and Galium boreale , became established very poorly, but showed an increase with study duration. For various traits, we found significant trait by method and trait by year interactions, indicating that different traits promoted establishment under different conditions. Using a multi-model approach, we tested whether traits acted in combination. For the first years and the last year, we found that models with three traits explained establishment success better than models with a single trait or two traits. While traits had only an additive effect on the establishment success in the first years, trait interactions became important thereafter. The most important trait was the season of flowering, which occurred in all best models from the third year onwards. Overall, our approach revealed the

  16. Long-Range Reduced Predictive Information Transfers of Autistic Youths in EEG Sensor-Space During Face Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Ali; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Khorrami, Anahita

    2016-03-01

    The majority of previous functional/effective connectivity studies conducted on the autistic patients converged to the underconnectivity theory of ASD: "long-range underconnectivity and sometimes short-rang overconnectivity". However, to the best of our knowledge the total (linear and nonlinear) predictive information transfers (PITs) of autistic patients have not been investigated yet. Also, EEG data have rarely been used for exploring the information processing deficits in autistic subjects. This study is aimed at comparing the total (linear and nonlinear) PITs of autistic and typically developing healthy youths during human face processing by using EEG data. The ERPs of 12 autistic youths and 19 age-matched healthy control (HC) subjects were recorded while they were watching upright and inverted human face images. The PITs among EEG channels were quantified using two measures separately: transfer entropy with self-prediction optimality (TESPO), and modified transfer entropy with self-prediction optimality (MTESPO). Afterwards, the directed differential connectivity graphs (dDCGs) were constructed to characterize the significant changes in the estimated PITs of autistic subjects compared with HC ones. By using both TESPO and MTESPO, long-range reduction of PITs of ASD group during face processing was revealed (particularly from frontal channels to right temporal channels). Also, it seemed the orientation of face images (upright or upside down) did not modulate the binary pattern of PIT-based dDCGs, significantly. Moreover, compared with TESPO, the results of MTESPO were more compatible with the underconnectivity theory of ASD in the sense that MTESPO showed no long-range increase in PIT. It is also noteworthy that to the best of our knowledge it is the first time that a version of MTE is applied for patients (here ASD) and it is also its first use for EEG data analysis.

  17. Prediction efficiency of the hydrographical parameters as related to distribution patterns of the Pleuromamma species in the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Saraswathy, M.

    . Multiple regression model of P. indica abundance on the parameters: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and phosphate-phosphorus could explain more than 85% of the variation in the predicted abundance, while those of 8 species obtained from...

  18. Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Julia E; Nicol, Sam; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Semmens, Darius; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Mattsson, Brady J; McCracken, Gary; Norris, D Ryan; Thogmartin, Wayne E; López-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-02-01

    In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals' "removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened." We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species' range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria-redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)-that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research. © 2017

  19. Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagic, Vesna; Bartomeus, Ignasi; Jonsson, Tomas; Taylor, Astrid; Winqvist, Camilla; Fischer, Christina; Slade, Eleanor M; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Emmerson, Mark; Potts, Simon G; Tscharntke, Teja; Weisser, Wolfgang; Bommarco, Riccardo

    2015-02-22

    Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  20. Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenton-Rule, Evan C; Barbieri, Rafael F; Lester, Philip J

    2016-06-15

    Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders. © 2016 The Author(s).

  1. Habitat and species identity, not diversity, predict the extent of refuse consumption by urban arthropods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Henderson, Ryanna C; Savage, Amy M; Ernst, Andrew F; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-03-01

    Urban green spaces provide ecosystem services to city residents, but their management is hindered by a poor understanding of their ecology. We examined a novel ecosystem service relevant to urban public health and esthetics: the consumption of littered food waste by arthropods. Theory and data from natural systems suggest that the magnitude and resilience of this service should increase with biological diversity. We measured food removal by presenting known quantities of cookies, potato chips, and hot dogs in street medians (24 sites) and parks (21 sites) in New York City, USA. At the same sites, we assessed ground-arthropod diversity and abiotic conditions, including history of flooding during Hurricane Sandy 7 months prior to the study. Arthropod diversity was greater in parks (on average 11 hexapod families and 4.7 ant species per site), than in medians (nine hexapod families and 2.7 ant species per site). However, counter to our diversity-based prediction, arthropods in medians removed 2-3 times more food per day than did those in parks. We detected no effect of flooding (at 19 sites) on this service. Instead, greater food removal was associated with the presence of the introduced pavement ant (Tetramorium sp. E) and with hotter, drier conditions that may have increased arthropod metabolism. When vertebrates also had access to food, more was removed, indicating that arthropods and vertebrates compete for littered food. We estimate that arthropods alone could remove 4-6.5 kg of food per year in a single street median, reducing its availability to less desirable fauna such as rats. Our results suggest that species identity and habitat may be more relevant than diversity for predicting urban ecosystem services. Even small green spaces such as street medians provide ecosystem services that may complement those of larger habitat patches across the urban landscape. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Cannon

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state.The bounds of skilful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6–8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4–2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5–5.5 days. The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days.

  3. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valladares, F.; Matesanz, S.; Guilhaumon, F.; Araujo, M.; Balaguer, L.; Benito-Garzon, M.; Cornwell, W.K.; Gianoli, E.; van Kleunen, M.; Naya, D.E.; Nicotra, A.B.; Poorter, H.; Zavala, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic

  4. Predicting Potential Changes in Suitable Habitat and Distribution by 2100 for Tree Species of the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

    2005-01-01

    We predict current distribution and abundance for tree species present in eastern North America, and subsequently estimate potential suitable habitat for those species under a changed climate with 2 x CO2. We used a series of statistical models (i.e., Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Bagging Trees (...

  5. Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an

  6. A new species of Desmopachria Babington (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) from Cuba with a prediction of its geographic distribution and notes on other Cuban species of the genus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megna, Yoandri S; Sánchez-Fernández, David

    2014-01-10

    A new species, Desmopachria andreae sp. n. is described from Cuba. Diagnostic characters including illustrations of male genitalia are provided and illustrated for the five species of the genus occurring on the island. For these five species both a simple key to adults and maps of their known distribution in Cuba are also provided. Using a Maximun Entropy method (MaxEnt), a distribution model was developed for D. andreae sp.n. Based on the model's predictions, this species has a higher probability of occurring in high altitude forests (above 1000 m a.s.l.), characterised by relatively low temperatures especially during the hottest and wettest seasons, specifically, the mountainous areas of the Macizo de Guamuhaya (Central Cuba), Sierra Maestra (S Cuba) and Nipe-Sagua-Baracoa (NE Cuba). In some of these areas the species has not yet been recorded, and should be searched for in future field surveys.

  7. Species Diversity and Functional Prediction of Surface Bacterial Communities on Aging Flue-Cured Tobaccos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fan; Zhao, Hongwei; Xiang, Haiying; Wu, Lijun; Men, Xiao; Qi, Chang; Chen, Guoqiang; Zhang, Haibo; Wang, Yi; Xian, Mo

    2018-06-05

    Microbes on aging flue-cured tobaccos (ATFs) improve the aroma and other qualities desirable in products. Understanding the relevant organisms would picture microbial community diversity, metabolic potential, and their applications. However, limited efforts have been made on characterizing the microbial quality and functional profiling. Herein, we present our investigation of the bacterial diversity and predicted potential genetic capability of the bacteria from two AFTs using 16S rRNA gene sequences and phylogenetic investigation of communities by reconstruction of unobserved states (PICRUSt) software. The results show that dominant bacteria from AFT surfaces were classified into 48 genera, 36 families, and 7 phyla. In addition, Bacillus spp. was found prevalent on both ATFs. Furthermore, PICRUSt predictions of bacterial community functions revealed many attractive metabolic capacities in the AFT microbiota, including several involved in the biosynthesis of flavors and fragrances and the degradation of harmful compounds, such as nicotine and nitrite. These results provide insights into the importance of AFT bacteria in determining product qualities and indicate specific microbial species with predicted enzymatic capabilities for the production of high-efficiency flavors, the degradation of undesirable compounds, and the provision of nicotine and nitrite tolerance which suggest fruitful areas of investigation into the manipulation of AFT microbiota for AFT and other product improvements.

  8. Predictions on the modes of decay of even Z superheavy isotopes within the range 104 ≤ Z ≤ 136

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santhosh, K. P.; Nithya, C.

    2018-01-01

    The decay modes and half lives of all the even Z isotopes of superheavy elements within the range 104 ≤ Z ≤ 136 have been predicted by comparing the alpha decay half-lives with the spontaneous fission half-lives. The Coulomb and proximity potential model for deformed nuclei (CPPMDN) and the shell-effect-dependent formula of Santhosh et al. are used to calculate the alpha half-lives and spontaneous fission half-lives respectively. For theoretical comparison the alpha decay half-lives are also calculated using Coulomb and proximity potential model (CPPM), the Viola-Seaborg-Sobiczewski semi-empirical (VSS) relation, the universal (UNIV) curve of Poenaru et al., the analytical formula of Royer and the universal decay law (UDL) of Qi et al. Another tool used for the evaluation of spontaneous fission half-lives is the semi-empirical formula of Xu et al. The nuclei with alpha decay half-lives less than spontaneous fission half-lives will survive fission and hence decay through alpha emission. The predicted half lives and decay modes are compared with the available experimental results. The one-proton and two-proton separation energies of all the isotopes are calculated to find nuclei which lie beyond the proton drip line. Among 1119 even Z nuclei within the range 104 ≤ Z ≤ 136, 164 nuclei show sequential alpha emission followed by subsequent spontaneous fission. Since the isotopes decay through alpha decay chain and the half-lives are in measurable range, these isotopes are predicted to be synthesized and detected in laboratory via alpha decay. 2 nuclei will decay by alpha decay followed by proton emission, 54 nuclei show full alpha chains, 642 nuclei will decay through spontaneous fission, 166 nuclei exhibit proton decay and 91 isotopes are found to be stable against alpha decay. All the isotopes are tabulated according to their decay modes. The study is intended to enhance further experimental investigations in superheavy region.

  9. Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Julia E.; Nicol, Samuel; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Mattsson, Brady; McCracken, Gary; Norris, D. Ryan; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-01-01

    In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

  10. Prediction of rain effects on earth-space communication links operating in the 10 to 35 GHz frequency range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutzman, Warren L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the effects of precipitation on earth-space communication links operating the 10 to 35 GHz frequency range. Emphasis is on the quantitative prediction of rain attenuation and depolarization. Discussions center on the models developed at Virginia Tech. Comments on other models are included as well as literature references to key works. Also included is the system level modeling for dual polarized communication systems with techniques for calculating antenna and propagation medium effects. Simple models for the calculation of average annual attenuation and cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) are presented. Calculation of worst month statistics are also presented.

  11. Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Komdeur Jan

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict, and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT. We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT and South Africa (CPT. Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Results Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. Conclusions These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT. Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each

  12. Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, René E; Pogány, Akos; Komdeur, Jan; Lloyd, Penn; Székely, Tamás

    2010-04-23

    The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict), and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT) exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT). We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT) and South Africa (CPT). Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT) exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT). Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each member of the breeding pair attempts to shift the

  13. Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Leon; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Bos, Merijn; de Groot, G Arjen; Kleijn, David; Potts, Simon G; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart; Scheper, Jeroen; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

    2015-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs' usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and

  14. Wide Ranging Insect Infestation of the Pioneer Mangrove Sonneratia alba by Two Insect Species along the Kenyan Coast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisha Mrabu Jenoh

    Full Text Available Insect infestation of mangroves currently threatens mangrove forest health and management. In the Western Indian Ocean region, little is known about insect damage to mangroves despite the fact that numerous infestations have occurred. In Kenya, infestations of Sonneratia alba have persisted for almost two decades, yet the taxonomic identity of the infesting pest(s, the extent of infestation, the pests' biology, the impacts of infestation on host and the ecosystem, the host's defensive strategies to the infestation are poorly understood. S. alba is a ubiquitous, pioneer mangrove species of the Indo-Pacific, occurring along the waterfront in a variety of mangrove ecosystem settings. Our main objectives were to identify the pest(s responsible for the current dieback of S. alba in Kenya, and to determine the extent of infestation. To identify the pests responsible for infestation, we trapped emergent insects and reared larvae in the laboratory. To determine the overall extent of infestation within the S. alba zone, we assessed nine sites along the entire Kenyan coastline for the presence or absence of infested mangroves. Insect infestation in two mangrove embayments (Gazi and Mida was quantified in depth. Two wood-boring insects were identified: a metarbelid moth (Lepidoptera, Cossoidea of undescribed genus and the beetle Bottegia rubra (Cerambycidae, Lamiinae.The metarbelid moth infests mangroves in both northern (from Ngomeni to Kiunga and southern regions (from Vanga to Mtwapa of the Kenyan coast. B. rubra appeared in low density in Gazi, and in high density in Mida, Kilifi, and Ngomeni, with densities gradually decreasing northward. Insect infestation levels reached 18% in Gazi and 25% of S. alba stands in Mida. Our results indicate that B. rubra has the ability to infest young mangrove trees and expand its range, posing a danger to rehabilitation efforts where plantations have been established. Thus, there is great need for forest managers to

  15. Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.

    2014-01-01

    The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests

  16. Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

  17. Increasing species richness of the macrozoobenthic fauna on tidal flats of the Wadden Sea by local range expansion and invasion of exotic species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukema, J.; Dekker, R.

    2011-01-01

    A 40-y series of consistently collected samples (15 fixed sampling sites, constant sampled area of 15 × 0.95 m2, annual sampling only in late-winter/early-spring seasons, and consistent sieving and sorting procedures; restriction to 50 easily recognizable species) of macrozoobenthos on Balgzand, a

  18. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogen species in chlorinated saline cooling waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lietzke, M.H.; Haag, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    A kinetic model for predicting the composition of chlorinated water discharged from power plants using fresh water for cooling was previously reported. The model has now been extended to be applicable to power plants located on estuaries or on the seacoast where saline water is used for cooling purposes. When chloride is added to seawater to prevent biofouling in cooling systems, bromine is liberated. Since this reaction proceeds at a finite rate there is a competition between the bromine (i.e., hypobromous acid) and the added chlorine (i.e., hypochlorous acid) for halogenation of any amine species present in the water. Hence not only chloramines but also bromamines and bromochloramines will be formed, with the relative concentrations a function of the pH, temperature, and salinity of the water. The kinetic model takes into account the chemical reactions leading to the formation and disappearance of the more important halamines and hypohalous acids likely to be encountered in chlorinated saline water

  19. Precise predictions of H2O line shapes over a wide pressure range using simulations corrected by a single measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, N. H.; Nguyen, H. T.; Tran, H.

    2018-03-01

    In this work, we show that precise predictions of the shapes of H2O rovibrational lines broadened by N2, over a wide pressure range, can be made using simulations corrected by a single measurement. For that, we use the partially-correlated speed-dependent Keilson-Storer (pcsdKS) model whose parameters are deduced from molecular dynamics simulations and semi-classical calculations. This model takes into account the collision-induced velocity-changes effects, the speed dependences of the collisional line width and shift as well as the correlation between velocity and internal-state changes. For each considered transition, the model is corrected by using a parameter deduced from its broadening coefficient measured for a single pressure. The corrected-pcsdKS model is then used to simulate spectra for a wide pressure range. Direct comparisons of the corrected-pcsdKS calculated and measured spectra of 5 rovibrational lines of H2O for various pressures, from 0.1 to 1.2 atm, show very good agreements. Their maximum differences are in most cases well below 1%, much smaller than residuals obtained when fitting the measurements with the Voigt line shape. This shows that the present procedure can be used to predict H2O line shapes for various pressure conditions and thus the simulated spectra can be used to deduce the refined line-shape parameters to complete spectroscopic databases, in the absence of relevant experimental values.

  20. Comparative analysis of the predicted secretomes of Rosaceae scab pathogens Venturia inaequalis and V. pirina reveals expanded effector families and putative determinants of host range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Cecilia H; Plummer, Kim M; Jones, Darcy A B; Mesarich, Carl H; Shiller, Jason; Taranto, Adam P; Robinson, Andrew J; Kastner, Patrick; Hall, Nathan E; Templeton, Matthew D; Bowen, Joanna K

    2017-05-02

    Fungal plant pathogens belonging to the genus Venturia cause damaging scab diseases of members of the Rosaceae. In terms of economic impact, the most important of these are V. inaequalis, which infects apple, and V. pirina, which is a pathogen of European pear. Given that Venturia fungi colonise the sub-cuticular space without penetrating plant cells, it is assumed that effectors that contribute to virulence and determination of host range will be secreted into this plant-pathogen interface. Thus the predicted secretomes of a range of isolates of Venturia with distinct host-ranges were interrogated to reveal putative proteins involved in virulence and pathogenicity. Genomes of Venturia pirina (one European pear scab isolate) and Venturia inaequalis (three apple scab, and one loquat scab, isolates) were sequenced and the predicted secretomes of each isolate identified. RNA-Seq was conducted on the apple-specific V. inaequalis isolate Vi1 (in vitro and infected apple leaves) to highlight virulence and pathogenicity components of the secretome. Genes encoding over 600 small secreted proteins (candidate effectors) were identified, most of which are novel to Venturia, with expansion of putative effector families a feature of the genus. Numerous genes with similarity to Leptosphaeria maculans AvrLm6 and the Verticillium spp. Ave1 were identified. Candidates for avirulence effectors with cognate resistance genes involved in race-cultivar specificity were identified, as were putative proteins involved in host-species determination. Candidate effectors were found, on average, to be in regions of relatively low gene-density and in closer proximity to repeats (e.g. transposable elements), compared with core eukaryotic genes. Comparative secretomics has revealed candidate effectors from Venturia fungal plant pathogens that attack pome fruit. Effectors that are putative determinants of host range were identified; both those that may be involved in race-cultivar and host-species

  1. Comparative phylogeography of two related plant species with overlapping ranges in Europe, and the potential effects of climate change on their intraspecific genetic diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Provan Jim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of the present study was to use a combined phylogeographic and species distribution modelling approach to compare the glacial histories of two plant species with overlapping distributions, Orthilia secunda (one-sided wintergreen and Monotropa hypopitys (yellow bird's nest. Phylogeographic analysis was carried out to determine the distribution of genetic variation across the range of each species and to test whether both correspond to the "classic" model of high diversity in the south, with decreasing diversity at higher latitudes, or whether the cold-adapted O. secunda might retain more genetic variation in northern populations. In addition, projected species distributions based on a future climate scenario were modelled to assess how changes in the species ranges might impact on total intraspecific diversity in both cases. Results Palaeodistribution modelling and phylogeographic analysis using multiple genetic markers (chloroplast trnS-trnG region, nuclear ITS and microsatellites for O. secunda; chloroplast rps2, nuclear ITS and microsatellites for M. hypopitys indicated that both species persisted throughout the Last Glacial Maximum in southern refugia. For both species, the majority of the genetic diversity was concentrated in these southerly populations, whereas those in recolonized areas generally exhibited lower levels of diversity, particularly in M. hypopitys. Species distribution modelling based on projected future climate indicated substantial changes in the ranges of both species, with a loss of southern and central populations, and a potential northward expansion for the temperate M. hypopitys. Conclusions Both Orthilia secunda and Monotropa hypopitys appear to have persisted through the LGM in Europe in southern refugia. The boreal O. secunda, however, has retained a larger proportion of its genetic diversity in more northerly populations outside these refugial areas than the temperate M. hypopitys. Given

  2. Neoclita pringlei (Scarabaeidae, Cetoniinae, a new relict genus and species from the Drakensberg Range of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renzo Perissinotto

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A new genus is erected within the Cetoniini to describe a newly discovered species with characters shared between Heteroclita Burmeister, 1842, Ichnestoma Gory & Percheron, 1833 and Meridioclita Krikken, 1982. Neoclita pringlei gen. et sp. nov. exhibits a simple clypeal structure without specialized armour, along with hypertrophic and hairy tarsal segments as well as a fully winged female. The new species also exhibits an aedeagal structure closest to Meridioclita, with dorsal lobes of parameres substantially narrower than the ventral ones. The species appears to be restricted to high altitudes in the southwestern peri-Drakensberg area of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. Similarly to other mountain relicts known from the southern African region, adults emerge only after major rainfall events during the late spring to early summer season and do not show any evidence of feeding. It appears that flying activity may be temporarily interrupted following soil desiccation, to resume promptly after the next rainfall.

  3. Predictions for an invaded world: A strategy to predict the distribution of native and non-indigenous species at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusser, D.A.; Lee, H.

    2008-01-01

    Habitat models can be used to predict the distributions of marine and estuarine non-indigenous species (NIS) over several spatial scales. At an estuary scale, our goal is to predict the estuaries most likely to be invaded, but at a habitat scale, the goal is to predict the specific locations within an estuary that are most vulnerable to invasion. As an initial step in evaluating several habitat models, model performance for a suite of benthic species with reasonably well-known distributions on the Pacific coast of the US needs to be compared. We discuss the utility of non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for predicting habitat- and estuary-scale distributions of native and NIS. NPMR incorporates interactions among variables, allows qualitative and categorical variables, and utilizes data on absence as well as presence. Preliminary results indicate that NPMR generally performs well at both spatial scales and that distributions of NIS are predicted as well as those of native species. For most species, latitude was the single best predictor, although similar model performance could be obtained at both spatial scales with combinations of other habitat variables. Errors of commission were more frequent at a habitat scale, with omission and commission errors approximately equal at an estuary scale. ?? 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes at the rangewide scale for an endangered species: an example of an American warbler

    KAUST Repository

    Collier, Bret A.; Groce, Julie E.; Morrison, Michael L.; Newnam, John C.; Campomizzi, Andrew J.; Farrell, Shannon L.; Mathewson, Heather A.; Snelgrove, Robert T.; Carroll, Raymond J.; Wilkins, Robert N.

    2011-01-01

    -makers in identifying suitable habitat across the species breeding range on which conservation or mitigation activities can be focused and thus prioritize management and conservation planning. LOCATION: Texas, USA. METHODS: We used repeated double-observer detection

  5. Disentangling Peronospora on Papaver: Phylogenetics, Taxonomy, Nomenclature and Host Range of Downy Mildew of Opium Poppy (Papaver somniferum) and Related Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voglmayr, Hermann; Montes-Borrego, Miguel; Landa, Blanca B.

    2014-01-01

    Based on sequence data from ITS rDNA, cox1 and cox2, six Peronospora species are recognised as phylogenetically distinct on various Papaver species. The host ranges of the four already described species P. arborescens, P. argemones, P. cristata and P. meconopsidis are clarified. Based on sequence data and morphology, two new species, P. apula and P. somniferi, are described from Papaver apulum and P. somniferum, respectively. The second Peronospora species parasitizing Papaver somniferum, that was only recently recorded as Peronospora cristata from Tasmania, is shown to represent a distinct taxon, P. meconopsidis, originally described from Meconopsis cambrica. It is shown that P. meconopsidis on Papaver somniferum is also present and widespread in Europe and Asia, but has been overlooked due to confusion with P. somniferi and due to less prominent, localized disease symptoms. Oospores are reported for the first time for P. meconopsidis from Asian collections on Papaver somniferum. Morphological descriptions, illustrations and a key are provided for all described Peronospora species on Papaver. cox1 and cox2 sequence data are confirmed as equally good barcoding loci for reliable Peronospora species identification, whereas ITS rDNA does sometimes not resolve species boundaries. Molecular phylogenetic data reveal high host specificity of Peronospora on Papaver, which has the important phytopathological implication that wild Papaver spp. cannot play any role as primary inoculum source for downy mildew epidemics in cultivated opium poppy crops. PMID:24806292

  6. The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syfert, Mindy M; Smith, Matthew J; Coomes, David A

    2013-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.

  7. Isolation by environmental distance in mobile marine species: molecular ecology of franciscana dolphins at their southern range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, Martin; Rosenbaum, Howard C; Subramaniam, Ajit; Yackulic, Charles; Bordino, Pablo

    2010-06-01

    The assessment of population structure is a valuable tool for studying the ecology of endangered species and drafting conservation strategies. As we enhance our understanding about the structuring of natural populations, it becomes important that we also understand the processes behind these patterns. However, there are few rigorous assessments of the influence of environmental factors on genetic patterns in mobile marine species. Given their dispersal capabilities and localized habitat preferences, coastal cetaceans are adequate study species for evaluating environmental effects on marine population structure. The franciscana dolphin, a rare coastal cetacean endemic to the Western South Atlantic, was studied to examine these issues. We analysed genetic data from the mitochondrial DNA and 12 microsatellite markers for 275 franciscana samples utilizing frequency-based, maximum-likelihood and Bayesian algorithms to assess population structure and migration patterns. This information was combined with 10 years of remote sensing environmental data (chlorophyll concentration, water turbidity and surface temperature). Our analyses show the occurrence of genetically isolated populations within Argentina, in areas that are environmentally distinct. Combined evidence of genetic and environmental structure suggests that isolation by distance and a process here termed isolation by environmental distance can explain the observed correlations. Our approach elucidated important ecological and conservation aspects of franciscana dolphins, and has the potential to increase our understanding of ecological processes influencing genetic patterns in other marine species.

  8. Changes of bat activity, species richness, diversity and community composition over an altitudinal gradient in the Soutpansberg range, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, V.M.G.; Weier, S.M.; Gaigher, I.; Kuipers, H.J.; Weterings, M.J.A.; Taylor, P.

    2014-01-01

    Bats are important indicator species which can help in identifying areas where conservation efforts should be concentrated and whether these areas are affected by ongoing climate change. To elucidate factors limiting and influencing the elevational distribution of bats in a recognised biodiversity

  9. Quantifying in situ phenotypic variability in the hydraulic properties of four tree species across their distribution range in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    González-Muñoz, N.; Sterck, F.; Torres-Ruiz, J.M.; Petit, G.; Cochard, H.; Arx, von G.; Lintunen, A.; Caldeira, M.C.; Capdeville, G.; Copini, P.; Gebauer, R.; Grönlund, L.; Hölttä, T.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Peltoniemi, M.; Stritih, A.; Urban, J.; Delzon, S.

    2018-01-01

    Many studies have reported that hydraulic properties vary considerably between tree species, but little is known about their intraspecific variation and, therefore, their capacity to adapt to a warmer and drier climate. Here, we quantify phenotypic divergence and clinal variation for embolism

  10. Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

    2011-12-20

    The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

  11. [Species of Lutzomyia (Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) in endemic cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis foci of the department of Santander, in the eastern range of the Colombian Andes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Claudia Magaly; Gutiérrez, Reinaldo; Cárdenas, Rocío; Ferro, Cristina

    2006-10-01

    Phlebotomine sand flies are the only known vectors of leishmaniasis and show an interesting biodiversity in the Andean mountain range of South America. We update the registry of species prevalent in the municipalities and endemic areas of the department of Santander, in the eastern range of the Colombian Andes. To present an updated inventory and distribution of the Lutzomyia species in the department of Santander and to discuss some ecological aspects of the principal species of medical importance. Phlebotomines were collected in 12 municipalities in the years 1998 to 2001 between 19:00-6:00 using CDC miniature light traps, manual aspirators on protected human baits between 18:00 and 20:00, and occasionally by direct aspiration on tree trunks between 8:00-11:00 and resting on walls at different times of the day. 3.972 phlebotomines of 41 species were captured, of which 16 species were new records for this area of the country. In zones of endemic American cutaneous leishmaniasis, L. gomezi, L. trapidoi, L. panamensis, L. ovallesi and L.yuilli were remarkable for their abundance, their presence within dwellings and their epidemiological relevance. In areas of visceral leishmaniasis, the most relevant species was L. longipalpis. The significant presence of vectors within human dwellings and the prevalence of human infection are continuing evidence of household transmission of Leishmania as an important public health problem in this department of Colombia.

  12. Efficacy of GPS cluster analysis for predicting carnivory sites of a wide-ranging omnivore: the American black bear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindschuh, Sarah R.; Cain, James W.; Daniel, David; Peyton, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    The capacity to describe and quantify predation by large carnivores expanded considerably with the advent of GPS technology. Analyzing clusters of GPS locations formed by carnivores facilitates the detection of predation events by identifying characteristics which distinguish predation sites. We present a performance assessment of GPS cluster analysis as applied to the predation and scavenging of an omnivore, the American black bear (Ursus americanus), on ungulate prey and carrion. Through field investigations of 6854 GPS locations from 24 individual bears, we identified 54 sites where black bears formed a cluster of locations while predating or scavenging elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), or cattle (Bos spp.). We developed models for three data sets to predict whether a GPS cluster was formed at a carnivory site vs. a non-carnivory site (e.g., bed sites or non-ungulate foraging sites). Two full-season data sets contained GPS locations logged at either 3-h or 30-min intervals from April to November, and a third data set contained 30-min interval data from April through July corresponding to the calving period for elk. Longer fix intervals resulted in the detection of fewer carnivory sites. Clusters were more likely to be carnivory sites if they occurred in open or edge habitats, if they occurred in the early season, if the mean distance between all pairs of GPS locations within the cluster was less, and if the cluster endured for a longer period of time. Clusters were less likely to be carnivory sites if they were initiated in the morning or night compared to the day. The top models for each data set performed well and successfully predicted 71–96% of field-verified carnivory events, 55–75% of non–carnivory events, and 58–76% of clusters overall. Refinement of this method will benefit from further application across species and ecological systems.

  13. Predicting the influence of long-range molecular interactions on macroscopic-scale diffusion by homogenization of the Smoluchowski equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kekenes-Huskey, P. M., E-mail: pkekeneshuskey@ucsd.edu [Department of Pharmacology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0636 (United States); Gillette, A. K. [Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0089 (United States); McCammon, J. A. [Department of Pharmacology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0636 (United States); Department of Chemistry, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0636 (United States)

    2014-05-07

    The macroscopic diffusion constant for a charged diffuser is in part dependent on (1) the volume excluded by solute “obstacles” and (2) long-range interactions between those obstacles and the diffuser. Increasing excluded volume reduces transport of the diffuser, while long-range interactions can either increase or decrease diffusivity, depending on the nature of the potential. We previously demonstrated [P. M. Kekenes-Huskey et al., Biophys. J. 105, 2130 (2013)] using homogenization theory that the configuration of molecular-scale obstacles can both hinder diffusion and induce diffusional anisotropy for small ions. As the density of molecular obstacles increases, van der Waals (vdW) and electrostatic interactions between obstacle and a diffuser become significant and can strongly influence the latter's diffusivity, which was neglected in our original model. Here, we extend this methodology to include a fixed (time-independent) potential of mean force, through homogenization of the Smoluchowski equation. We consider the diffusion of ions in crowded, hydrophilic environments at physiological ionic strengths and find that electrostatic and vdW interactions can enhance or depress effective diffusion rates for attractive or repulsive forces, respectively. Additionally, we show that the observed diffusion rate may be reduced independent of non-specific electrostatic and vdW interactions by treating obstacles that exhibit specific binding interactions as “buffers” that absorb free diffusers. Finally, we demonstrate that effective diffusion rates are sensitive to distribution of surface charge on a globular protein, Troponin C, suggesting that the use of molecular structures with atomistic-scale resolution can account for electrostatic influences on substrate transport. This approach offers new insight into the influence of molecular-scale, long-range interactions on transport of charged species, particularly for diffusion-influenced signaling events

  14. A range of complex probabilistic models for RNA secondary structure prediction that includes the nearest-neighbor model and more.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, Elena; Lang, Raymond; Eddy, Sean R

    2012-02-01

    The standard approach for single-sequence RNA secondary structure prediction uses a nearest-neighbor thermodynamic model with several thousand experimentally determined energy parameters. An attractive alternative is to use statistical approaches with parameters estimated from growing databases of structural RNAs. Good results have been reported for discriminative statistical methods using complex nearest-neighbor models, including CONTRAfold, Simfold, and ContextFold. Little work has been reported on generative probabilistic models (stochastic context-free grammars [SCFGs]) of comparable complexity, although probabilistic models are generally easier to train and to use. To explore a range of probabilistic models of increasing complexity, and to directly compare probabilistic, thermodynamic, and discriminative approaches, we created TORNADO, a computational tool that can parse a wide spectrum of RNA grammar architectures (including the standard nearest-neighbor model and more) using a generalized super-grammar that can be parameterized with probabilities, energies, or arbitrary scores. By using TORNADO, we find that probabilistic nearest-neighbor models perform comparably to (but not significantly better than) discriminative methods. We find that complex statistical models are prone to overfitting RNA structure and that evaluations should use structurally nonhomologous training and test data sets. Overfitting has affected at least one published method (ContextFold). The most important barrier to improving statistical approaches for RNA secondary structure prediction is the lack of diversity of well-curated single-sequence RNA secondary structures in current RNA databases.

  15. Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2017-12-01

    As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

  16. Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

    OpenAIRE

    R?dder, Dennis; Lawing, A. Michelle; Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; H?rnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

    2013-01-01

    The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5-10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine ...

  17. XenDB: Full length cDNA prediction and cross species mapping in Xenopus laevis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giegerich Robert

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research using the model system Xenopus laevis has provided critical insights into the mechanisms of early vertebrate development and cell biology. Large scale sequencing efforts have provided an increasingly important resource for researchers. To provide full advantage of the available sequence, we have analyzed 350,468 Xenopus laevis Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs both to identify full length protein encoding sequences and to develop a unique database system to support comparative approaches between X. laevis and other model systems. Description Using a suffix array based clustering approach, we have identified 25,971 clusters and 40,877 singleton sequences. Generation of a consensus sequence for each cluster resulted in 31,353 tentative contig and 4,801 singleton sequences. Using both BLASTX and FASTY comparison to five model organisms and the NR protein database, more than 15,000 sequences are predicted to encode full length proteins and these have been matched to publicly available IMAGE clones when available. Each sequence has been compared to the KOG database and ~67% of the sequences have been assigned a putative functional category. Based on sequence homology to mouse and human, putative GO annotations have been determined. Conclusion The results of the analysis have been stored in a publicly available database XenDB http://bibiserv.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de/xendb/. A unique capability of the database is the ability to batch upload cross species queries to identify potential Xenopus homologues and their associated full length clones. Examples are provided including mapping of microarray results and application of 'in silico' analysis. The ability to quickly translate the results of various species into 'Xenopus-centric' information should greatly enhance comparative embryological approaches. Supplementary material can be found at http://bibiserv.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de/xendb/.

  18. Plant species' origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seabloom, Eric W.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Buckley, Yvonne M.; Cleland, Elsa E.; Davies, Kendi F.; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Lind, Eric M.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Orrock, John L.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Adler, Peter B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Biederman, Lori A.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Crawley, Michael J.; Damschen, Ellen I.; Dantonio, Carla M.; DeCrappeo, Nicole M.; Du, Guozhen; Fay, Philip A.; Frater, Paul; Gruner, Daniel S.; Hagenah, Nicole; Hector, Andy; Hillebrand, Helmut; Hofmockel, Kirsten S.; Humphries, Hope C.; Jin, Virginia L.; Kay, Adam; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Klein, Julia A.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Ladwig, Laura; Lambrinos, John G.; Li, Qi; Li, Wei; Marushia, Robin; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Mitchell, Charles E.; Moore, Joslin L.; Morgan, John; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Pyke, David A.; Risch, Anita C.; Sankaran, Mahesh; Schuetz, Martin; Simonsen, Anna; Smith, Melinda D.; Stevens, Carly J.; Sullivan, Lauren; Wolkovich, Elizabeth; Wragg, Peter D.; Wright, Justin; Yang, Louie

    2015-01-01

    Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands. PMID:26173623

  19. Prediction of overall persistence and long-range transport potential with multimedia fate models: robustness and sensitivity of results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenner, Kathrin; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2004-01-01

    The hazard indicators persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) are used in chemicals assessment to characterize chemicals with regard to the temporal and spatial extent of their environmental exposure. They are often calculated based on the results of multimedia fate models. The environmental and substance-specific input parameters of such models are subject to a range of methodological uncertainties and also influenced by natural variability. We employed probabilistic uncertainty analysis to quantify variance in P and LRTP predictions for chemicals with different partitioning and transport behavior. Variance found in the results is so large that it prevents a clear distinction between chemicals. Additionally, only small improvements are observed when evaluating the results relative to a benchmark chemical. This can be explained by the dominance of substance-specific parameters and the only small direct influence of environmental parameters on P and LRTP as model outcomes. The findings underline the importance of learning how environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior for improved substance ranking and classification. - Environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior which need to be considered in chemical ranking schemes

  20. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaquias, Manuel António E.

    2016-01-01

    The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt), a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy) and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny). Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown. PMID:27248835

  1. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Cruz-Rivera

    Full Text Available The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt, a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny. Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown.

  2. Revision of Nymphaea candida range - new data on the distribution and habitat preferences of the species in southern Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkadiusz Nowak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of geobotanical and taxonomic studies on the distribution and habitat requirements of Nymphaea candida in southern Poland. The researches were conducted in southern Poland in 2003-2009, in the provinces of Lower Silesia, Lublin, Małopolska, Opole, Silesian province as well as, in southern parts of Mazowieckie and Lubuskie. Flowers, leaves and fruits of Nymphaea species were collected from 27 locations. Altogether pollens from 73 populations of N. candida and 18 of N. alba from all the researched area were measured. The trophic level of an ecosystem was evaluated according to the results of the total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, transparency and biological parameters. As the result of the studies of more than 200 water bodies, 57 localities of N. candida were documented within the investigation area. The populations of N. candida occupy mid-forest water bodies and river ox-bow lakes. A significant number of populations was also found in artificial reservoirs - fish ponds. The most suitable habitat conditions for N. candida occur in shallow waters in the shore zone with the amplitude of the water column vary from 0.5 to 2 m. Regarding the trophy level, N. candida occupies different habitats, mainly mesotrophic and also eutrophic with high content of organic matters. Considering the 15 checked morphological parameters, especially the stigma diameter, the number of carpellary teeth, flower and pollen diameters, the found and collected specimens of N. candida significantly differ from N. alba. The study confirms that N. candida ocurrs in whole lowland Poland without any regional distribution gaps. According to the IUCN guidelines to species assessment the data gathered during the presented study do not allow to classify N. candida as a vulnerable species in Poland. Still existing populations for more than 150 years, numerous stable locations, abundant populations, a habitat accessibility, a biotope extent, an

  3. Chiricahua leopard frog status in the Galiuro Mountains, Arizona, with a monitoring framework for the species' entire range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence L. C. Jones; Michael J. Sredl

    2005-01-01

    The Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis) was historically widespread in suitable habitat throughout its range. Reports of recent population declines led to inventories of Chiricahua leopard frog localities. Surveys reported here establish a new baseline of occurrence in the Galiuros: only two of 21 historical localities were found to be...

  4. Changes in home range sizes and population densities of carnivore species along the natural to urban habitat gradient

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šálek, Martin; Drahníková, L.; Tkadlec, Emil

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2015), s. 1-14 ISSN 0305-1838 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Carnivores * home range size * natural–urban gradient * population density * review Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 4.116, year: 2015

  5. Not to put too fine a point on it - does increasing precision of geographic referencing improve species distribution models for a wide-ranging migratory bat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Ozenberger, Katharine; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Bat specimens held in natural history museum collections can provide insights into the distribution of species. However, there are several important sources of spatial error associated with natural history specimens that may influence the analysis and mapping of bat species distributions. We analyzed the importance of geographic referencing and error correction in species distribution modeling (SDM) using occurrence records of hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus). This species is known to migrate long distances and is a species of increasing concern due to fatalities documented at wind energy facilities in North America. We used 3,215 museum occurrence records collected from 1950–2000 for hoary bats in North America. We compared SDM performance using five approaches: generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy models. We evaluated results using three SDM performance metrics (AUC, sensitivity, and specificity) and two data sets: one comprised of the original occurrence data, and a second data set consisting of these same records after the locations were adjusted to correct for identifiable spatial errors. The increase in precision improved the mean estimated spatial error associated with hoary bat records from 5.11 km to 1.58 km, and this reduction in error resulted in a slight increase in all three SDM performance metrics. These results provide insights into the importance of geographic referencing and the value of correcting spatial errors in modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging bat species. We conclude that the considerable time and effort invested in carefully increasing the precision of the occurrence locations in this data set was not worth the marginal gains in improved SDM performance, and it seems likely that gains would be similar for other bat species that range across large areas of the continent, migrate, and are habitat generalists.

  6. Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

    2018-07-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

  7. The range of the golden-mantle tamarin, Saguinus tripartitus (Milne Edwards, 1878): distributions and sympatry of four tamarin species in Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matauschek, Christian; Aquino, Rolando; Encarnación, Filomeno; Heymann, Eckhard W.; de la Torre, Stella; Mittermeier, Russell A.

    2010-01-01

    A detailed understanding of the range of the golden-mantle tamarin, Saguinus tripartitus (Milne Edwards, 1878), in Amazonian Peru and Ecuador is of particular relevance, not only because it is poorly known but also because it was on the basis of its supposed sympatry with the saddleback tamarin (S. fuscicollis lagonotus) that Thorington (Am J Primatol 15:367–371, 1988) argued that it is a distinct species rather than a saddleback tamarin subspecies, as was believed by Hershkovitz (Living new world monkeys, vol I. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1977). A number of surveys have been carried out since 1988 in the supposed range of S. tripartitus, in both Ecuador and Peru. Here we summarize and discuss these issues and provide a new suggestion for the geographic range of this species; that is, between the ríos Napo and Curaray in Peru and extending east into Ecuador. We also review current evidence for the distributions of Spix’s black-mantle tamarin (S. nigricollis nigricollis), Graells’ black-mantle tamarin (S. n. graellsi), and the saddleback tamarin (S. fuscicollis lagonotus), which are also poorly known, and examine the evidence regarding sympatry between them. We conclude that despite the existence of a number of specimens with collecting localities that indicate overlap in their geographic ranges, the fact that the four tamarin species are of similar size and undoubtedly very similar in their feeding habits militates strongly against the occurrence of sympatry among them. PMID:20878203

  8. Urinary androgen concentrations and social status in two species of free ranging zebra (Equus burchelli and E. grevyi).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, M; Ginsberg, J R

    1990-01-01

    In both species of zebra, breeding males had higher urinary androgen concentrations (ng androgens/mg Cr) than did non-breeding bachelor males (30.0 +/- 5.0 (N = 9) versus 11.4 +/- 2.8, (N = 7) in the plains zebra; 19.0 +/- 2.2 (N = 17) versus 10.7 +/- 1.2 (N = 14) in the Grevy's zebra). In the more stable family structure of the plains zebra (single male non-territorial groups) variations in androgen concentrations could not be ascribed to any measured variable. In the Grevy's zebra, androgen values were significantly lower in samples taken from territorial (breeding) males which had temporarily abandoned their territories (N = 4) and the urinary androgen concentration for a male on his territory was negatively correlated with the time since females last visited the territory.

  9. Performance of the FV3-powered Next Generation Global Prediction System for Harvey and Irma, and a vision for a "beyond weather timescale" prediction system for long-range hurricane track and intensity predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, S. J.; Bender, M.; Harris, L.; Hazelton, A.

    2017-12-01

    The performance of a GFDL developed FV3-based Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) for Harvey and Irma will be reported. We will report on aspects of track and intensity errors (vs operational models), heavy precipitation (Harvey), rapid intensification, and simulated structure (in comparison with ground based radar), and point to a need of a future long-range (from day-5 up to 30 days) physically based ensemble hurricane prediction system for providing useful information to the forecasters, beyond the usual weather timescale.

  10. Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

    2015-06-01

    The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

  11. Species abundance distributions : moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McGill, Brian J.; Etienne, Rampal S.; Gray, John S.; Alonso, David; Anderson, Marti J.; Benecha, Habtamu Kassa; Dornelas, Maria; Enquist, Brian J.; Green, Jessica L.; He, Fangliang; Hurlbert, Allen H.; Magurran, Anne E.; Marquet, Pablo A.; Maurer, Brian A.; Ostling, Annette; Soykan, Candan U.; Ugland, Karl I.; White, Ethan P.

    2007-01-01

    Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws - every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the

  12. Species abundance distributions: moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McGill, B.J.; Etienne, R.S.; Gray, J.S.; Alonso, D.; Anderson, M.J.; Benecha, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws ¿ every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the

  13. Predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (Aves: Accipitridae) in southern Spain: statistical models work better than existing maps

    OpenAIRE

    Bustamante, Javier; Seoane, Javier

    2004-01-01

    Aim To test the effectiveness of statistical models based on explanatory environmental variables vs. existing distribution information (maps and breeding atlas), for predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (family Accipitridae): common buzzard Buteo buteo (Linnaeus, 1758), short-toed eagle Circaetus gallicus (Gmelin, 1788), booted eagle Hieraaetus pennatus (Gmelin, 1788) and black kite Milvus migrans (Boddaert, 1783). Location Andalusia, southe...

  14. Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P

    2014-05-01

    Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR-SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A review of the Nearctic genus Prostoia (Ricker) (Plecoptera, Nemouridae), with the description of a new species and a surprising range extension for P. hallasi Kondratieff & Kirchner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubbs, Scott A; Baumann, Richard W; DeWalt, R Edward; Tweddale, Tari

    2014-01-01

    The Nearctic genus Prostoia (Plecoptera: Nemouridae) is reviewed. Prostoia ozarkensis sp. n. is described from the male and female adult stages mainly from the Interior Highland region encompassing portions of Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. Prostoia ozarkensis sp. n. appears most closely related to two species, one distributed broadly across the western Nearctic region, P. besametsa (Ricker), and one found widely throughout the central and eastern Nearctic regions, P. completa (Walker). A surprising range extension is noted for P. hallasi Kondratieff & Kirchner, a species once known only from the Great Dismal Swamp, from small upland streams in southern Illinois. Additional new state records are documented for P. besametsa, P. completa, P. hallasi and P. similis (Hagen). Taxonomic keys to Prostoia males and females are provided, and scanning electron micrographs of adult genitalia of all species are given.

  16. The translocated Liza haematocheila (Teleostei: Mugilidae) as a new host of four species of Saturnius Manter, 1969 (Digenea: Hemiuridae) within its invasive range in the Black Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankov, Plamen; Gibson, David I; Kostadinova, Aneta

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents the first documented record of four species of Saturnius Manter, 1969 in Liza haematocheila (Temminck & Schlegel) in its invasive Pontic range. S. papernai Overstreet, 1977, S. dimitrovi Blasco-Costa, Pankov, Gibson, Balbuena, Raga, Sarabeev & Kostadinova, 2006, S. minutus Blasco-Costa, Pankov, Gibson, Balbuena, Raga, Sarabeev & Kostadinova, 2006 and Saturnius sp. are described and compared with existing data by means of multivariate morphometric analysis. The morphological and morphometric similarities between the specimens of Saturnius sp. from L. haematocheila and a small form of S. papernai from L. aurata indicate the possible existence of another, cryptic species. Although having acquired at least three species of Saturnius since its establishment in the Black Sea region, there is no evidence that a Pacific congener has been introduced with this fish. This is the first report of S. minutus from the Black Sea.

  17. Complete Genome sequence of Burkholderia phymatum STM815, a broad host range and efficient nitrogen-fixing symbiont of Mimosa species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moulin, Lionel [UMR, France; Klonowska, Agnieszka [UMR, France; Caroline, Bournaud [UMR, France; Booth, Kristina [University of Massachusetts; Vriezen, Jan A.C. [University of Massachusetts; Melkonian, Remy [UMR, France; James, Euan [James Hutton Institute, Dundee, United Kingdom; Young, Peter W. [University of York, United Kingdom; Bena, Gilles [UMR, France; Hauser, Loren John [ORNL; Land, Miriam L [ORNL; Kyrpides, Nikos C [U.S. Department of Energy, Joint Genome Institute; Bruce, David [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL); Chain, Patrick S. G. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Copeland, A [U.S. Department of Energy, Joint Genome Institute; Pitluck, Sam [U.S. Department of Energy, Joint Genome Institute; Woyke, Tanja [U.S. Department of Energy, Joint Genome Institute; Lizotte-Waniewski, Michelle [University of Massachusetts; Bristow, James [U.S. Department of Energy, Joint Genome Institute; Riley, Monica [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole

    2014-01-01

    Burkholderia phymatum is a soil bacterium able to develop a nitrogen-fixing symbiosis with species of the legume genus Mimosa, and is frequently found associated specifically with Mimosa pudica. The type strain of the species, STM 815T, was isolated from a root nodule in French Guiana in 2000. The strain is an aerobic, motile, non-spore forming, Gram-negative rod, and is a highly competitive strain for nodulation compared to other Mimosa symbionts, as it also nodulates a broad range of other legume genera and species. The 8,676,562 bp genome is composed of two chromosomes (3,479,187 and 2,697,374 bp), a megaplasmid (1,904,893 bp) and a plasmid hosting the symbiotic functions (595,108 bp).

  18. An Improved Continuous-Time Model Predictive Control of Permanent Magnetic Synchronous Motors for a Wide-Speed Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan Su

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved continuous-time model predictive control (CTMPC of permanent magnetic synchronous motors (PMSMs for a wide-speed range, including the constant torque region and the flux-weakening (FW region. In the constant torque region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are decoupled without the limitation of DC-link voltage. However, in the FW region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are cross-coupled together with the limitation of DC-link voltage. A nonlinear PMSMs mathematic model in the FW region is presented based on the voltage angle. The solving of the nonlinear mathematic model of PMSMs in FW region will lead to heavy computation load for digital signal processing (DSP. To overcome such a problem, a linearization method of the voltage angle is also proposed to reduce the computation load. The selection of transiting points between the constant torque region and FW regions is researched to improve the performance of the driven system. Compared with the proportional integral (PI controller, the proposed CTMPC has obvious advantages in dealing with systems’ nonlinear constraints and improving system performance by restraining overshoot current under step torque changing. Both simulation and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in achieving good steady-state performance and smooth switching between the constant torque and FW regions.

  19. Explaining variation in life history timing across a species range: Effects of climate on spawning time in an exploited marine fish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neuheimer, Anna; MacKenzie, Brian

    . Combined, these results shed light on the adaptive capacity of the species in the face of changing climate. We use our results to estimate expected spawning time under future climate regimes, and discuss the implications for codecology and management across the species’ range, and in the greater ecosystem......The capacity of a species to tolerate and/or adapt to environmental conditions will shape its response to future climate change including climate extremes. Of the many life-history processes affected by climate change, timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting...... population production. Here we explore temporal and spatial changes in spawning time for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species’ range (4 to 80°N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree days, DD). First, we estimate...

  20. Larval gizzard shad characteristics in Lake Oahe, South Dakota: A species at the northern edge of its range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fincel, Mark J.; Chipps, Steven R.; Graeb, Brian D. S.; Edwards, Kris R.

    2013-01-01

    Gizzard shad, Dorosoma cepedianum, have generally been restricted to the lower Missouri River impoundments in South Dakota. In recent years, gizzard shad numbers have increased in Lake Oahe, marking the northern-most natural population. These increases could potentially affect recreational fishes. Specifically, questions arise about larval gizzard shad growth dynamics and if age-0 gizzard shad in Lake Oahe will exhibit fast or slow growth, both of which can have profound effects on piscivore populations in this reservoir. In this study, we evaluated larval gizzard shad hatch timing, growth, and density in Lake Oahe. We collected larval gizzard shad from six sites from May to July 2008 and used sagittal otoliths to estimate the growth and back-calculate the hatch date. We found that larval gizzard shad hatched earlier in the upper part of the reservoir compared to the lower portion and that hatch date appeared to correspond to warming water temperatures. The peak larval gizzard shad density ranged from 0.6 to 33.6 (#/100 m3) and varied significantly among reservoir sites. Larval gizzard shad growth ranged from 0.24 to 0.57 (mm/d) and differed spatially within the reservoir. We found no relationship between the larval gizzard shad growth or density and small- or large-bodied zooplankton density (p > 0.05). As this population exhibits slow growth and low densities, gizzard shad should remain a suitable forage option for recreational fishes in Lake Oahe.

  1. Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

    2018-05-01

    The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

  2. Integrating multiple lines of evidence to better understand the evolutionary divergence of humpback dolphins along their entire distribution range: a new dolphin species in Australian waters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, Martin; Jefferson, Thomas A; Kolokotronis, Sergios-Orestis; Krützen, Michael; Parra, Guido J; Collins, Tim; Minton, Giana; Baldwin, Robert; Berggren, Per; Särnblad, Anna; Amir, Omar A; Peddemors, Vic M; Karczmarski, Leszek; Guissamulo, Almeida; Smith, Brian; Sutaria, Dipani; Amato, George; Rosenbaum, Howard C

    2013-12-01

    The conservation of humpback dolphins, distributed in coastal waters of the Indo-West Pacific and eastern Atlantic Oceans, has been hindered by a lack of understanding about the number of species in the genus (Sousa) and their population structure. To address this issue, we present a combined analysis of genetic and morphologic data collected from beach-cast, remote-biopsied and museum specimens from throughout the known Sousa range. We extracted genetic sequence data from 235 samples from extant populations and explored the mitochondrial control region and four nuclear introns through phylogenetic, population-level and population aggregation frameworks. In addition, 180 cranial specimens from the same geographical regions allowed comparisons of 24 morphological characters through multivariate analyses. The genetic and morphological data showed significant and concordant patterns of geographical segregation, which are typical for the kind of demographic isolation displayed by species units, across the Sousa genus distribution range. Based on our combined genetic and morphological analyses, there is convincing evidence for at least four species within the genus (S. teuszii in the Atlantic off West Africa, S. plumbea in the central and western Indian Ocean, S. chinensis in the eastern Indian and West Pacific Oceans, and a new as-yet-unnamed species off northern Australia). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The Climate Range Expansion of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Asia Inferred From the Distribution of Albopictus Subgroup Species of Aedes (Stegomyia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogi, M; Armbruster, P A; Tuno, N; Aranda, C; Yong, H S

    2017-11-07

    We compared climatic distribution ranges between Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) and the five wild (nondomesticated) species of Albopictus Subgroup of Scutellaris Group of Aedes (Stegomyia) in southern Asia. Distribution sites of the wild species concentrate in seasonal forest and savannah climate zones in India, Indochina, and southern China. The distribution of Ae. albopictus is broader than the wild species under 1) tropical rain-forest climate, 2) steppe and temperate savannah climate, and 3) continental climate with large seasonal temperature variation (hot summer and cold winter) at temperate lowlands (northernmost sites 40°N in Ae. albopictus vs 32°N in the wild species). However, the distribution of Ae. albopictus is more limited at tropical and subtropical highlands where the climate is cool but less continental (small seasonal variation, mild summer, and winter). We discuss a possibility that the broader climate ranges of Ae. albopictus are ecological or eco-evolutionary consequences of adaptation to human habitats. We also propose a general scenario for the origin, dispersal, and adaptation of Ae. albopictus in Asia as a hypothesis for future research. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird species richness in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....

  5. In-flight measurements and RCS-predictions: A comparison on broad-side radar range profiles of a Boeing 737

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heiden, R. van der; Ewijk, L.J. van; Groen, F.C.A.

    1997-01-01

    The validation of Radar Cross Section (RCS) prediction techniques against real measurements is crucial to acquire confidence in predictions when measurements are not available. In this paper we present the first results of a comparison on one dimensional images, i.e., radar range profiles. The

  6. Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

    2015-12-01

    Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

  7. A multi-species modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Synes, Nicholas W.; Watts, Kevin; Palmer, Stephen C.F.; Bocedi, Greta; Bartoń, Kamil A.; Osborne, Patrick E.; Travis, Justin M.J.

    2015-01-01

    An individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely the improvement of existing habitat, restoration of low quality habitat and creation of new habitat. These strategies were implemented on a landscape typical of fragmentation in the United Kingdom using spatial rules to differentiate between the allocation of strategies adjacent to or away from existing h...

  8. The first study of molecular prevalence and species characterization of Cryptosporidium in free-range chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) from Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewald, Maria Paula de Carvalho; Martins, Felippe Danyel Cardoso; Caldart, Eloiza Teles; Vieira, Fernando Emmanuel Gonçalves; Yamamura, Milton Hissashi; Sasse, João Pedro; Barros, Luiz Daniel de; Freire, Roberta Lemos; Navarro, Italmar Teodorico; Garcia, João Luis

    2017-01-01

    Rearing free-range chicken is based on grazing feeding patterns, and these animals could be potential environmental contaminants of Cryptosporidium oocysts for humans and other animals. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the molecular prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. in free-range chickens from Brazil. A total of 351 fecal samples from chickens were examined from 20 farms. For detection of Cryptosporidium spp., 18S rRNA gene fragments were amplified using a nested PCR reaction. Positive samples were sent for sequencing. The overall prevalence of Cryptosporidium was 25.6% (95% CI = 21.2% - 30.6%). Sequencing of the amplified fragments allowed for the identification of three species: C. meleagridis in 57 (62.6%), C. baileyi in 15 (16.4%), C. parvum in 3 (3.2%) samples, and a new Cryptosporidium genotype (C. genotype BrPR1) in 3 (3.2%) samples. Cryptosporidium genotype BrPR1 has not yet been classified as a species, and its host spectrum is not known. Cryptosporidium, including zoonotic species, exists at a high prevalence in free-range chickens within the region studied.

  9. The extending of ranges of some bird species at the north-eastern border of their distribution due to intra-century climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg V. Glushenkov

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an overview of the phenomenon of range expanding of birds located at the northeastern limit of their range. The study area is located in the Volga-Kama Krai in the Chuvash Republic, adjacent to the River Volga. It is situated northwards and southwards of 56° N, and westwards and eastwards of 49° E, in a band of about 400 km. The problem is considered in aspect of the intra-century changes of climatic conditions in the region and in European Russia as a whole. The analysis of the relationship between the range expansion of some bird species and the intra-century climate changes was based on ornithological and climatological material available for the study area. We have used material on climate change in the Chuvashian Republic and Volga-Kama Krai since 1926, taking into account recent data of Roshydromet and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The idea of this study was based on the theory of climatic cycles of different periodicity, the theory of recent global climate change and the hypothesis of cyclic dynamics of the ranges of waterfowl in the context of centuries-old and intra-century climate change in Northern Eurasia. In the framework of the problem, we have studied ornithological material dated from the late 19th till the early 21st century, authored by Bogdanov, Ruzsky, Zhitkov, Buturlin, Artobolevsky, Volchanetsky, Pershakov, Popov, Glushenkov and others. As shown the intra-century climate changes do quite likely affect the northward and northeastward range expansion of such bird species as Cygnus olor, Anas strepera, Aythya ferina, Hieraaetus pennatus, Aquila heliaca, and Fulica atra. Climate changes can also be judged on the base of the shift in the arrival timing to earlier dates for some birds. It is most clearly manifested for early arriving species (Grus grus, Ardea cinerea, Actitis hypoleucos. It is also true for the later arriving Pernis apivorus and Merops apiaster whose existence depends on the

  10. Predicting geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species (Aves: Furnariidae in South America based on ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria da Salete Gurgel Costa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853, comprises nine species of Furnariids that occur in South America in open and generally dry areas. This study estimated the geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species in South America by ecological niche modeling. Applying maximum entropy method, models were produced for eight species based on six climatic variables and 949 occurrence records. Since highest climatic suitability for Phacellodomus species has been estimated in open and dry areas, the Amazon rainforest areas are not very suitable for these species. Annual precipitation and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the variables that most influence the models. Phacellodomus species occurred in 35 ecoregions of South America. Chaco and Uruguayan savannas were the ecoregions with the highest number of species. Despite the overall connection of Phacellodomus species with dry areas, species such as P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula and P. erythrophthalmus occurred in wet forests and wetland ecoregions.

  11. Predictions on the modes of decay of odd Z superheavy isotopes within the range 105 ≤ Z ≤ 135

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santhosh, K. P.; Nithya, C.

    2018-05-01

    The decay modes of 1051 odd Z superheavy nuclei within the range 105 ≤ Z ≤ 135, and their daughter nuclei are studied by comparing the alpha decay half-lives with the spontaneous fission half-lives. The alpha decay half-lives are calculated using the Coulomb and proximity potential model for deformed nuclei (CPPMDN) proposed by Santhosh et al. (2011) and the spontaneous fission half-lives are obtained with the shell-effect dependent formula of Santhosh et al. (Santhosh and Nithya, 2016). For a theoretical comparison, the alpha decay half-lives are also computed with the Coulomb and proximity potential model (CPPM), Viola-Seaborg-Sobiczewski semi-empirical relation (VSS), Universal curve of Poenaru et al. (UNIV), the analytical formula of Royer, and the Universal decay law of Qi et al. (UDL). The predicted decay modes and half-lives were compared with the available experimental results. The proton and neutron separation energies are calculated to identify those nuclei, which decay through proton and neutron emission. From the entire study of odd Z superheavy elements, it is seen that among 1051 nuclei, 233 nuclei exhibit proton emission and 18 nuclei exhibit neutron emission. 56 nuclei are stable against alpha decay with negative Q value for the decay. 92 nuclei show alpha decay followed by spontaneous fission and 9 nuclei show alpha decay followed by proton emission. 39 nuclei decay through full alpha chain and 595 nuclei decay through spontaneous fission. We hope that the study will be very useful for the future experimental investigations in this field.

  12. Proteomic analysis of the major birch allergen Bet v 1 predicts allergenicity for 15 birch species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, M.F.; Cordewener, J.H.G.; America, A.H.P.; Peters, J.; Smulders, M.J.M.; Gilissen, L.J.W.J.

    2011-01-01

    Pollen of the European and Asian white birch (Betula pendula and B. platyphylla) causes hay fever in humans. The allergenic potency of other birch species is largely unknown. To identify birch trees with a reduced allergenicity, we assessed the immunochemical characteristics of 15 species and two

  13. Acute toxicity prediction to threatened and endangered species using Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA’s Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlati...

  14. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Firn; J.L. Moore; A.S. MacDougall; E.T. Borer; E.W. Seabloom; J. HilleRisLambers; S. Harpole; E.E. Cleland; C.S. Brown; J.M.H. Knops; S.M. Prober; D.A. Pyke; K.A. Farrell; J.D. Bakker; L.R. O’Halloran; P.B. Adler; S.L. Collins; C.M. D’Antonio; M.J. Crawley; E.M. Wolkovich; K.J. La Pierre; B.A. Melbourne; Y. Hautier; J.W. Morgan; A.D.B. Leakey; A.D. Kay; R.L. McCulley; K.F. Davies; C.J. Stevens; C.J. Chu

    2011-01-01

    Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at...

  15. Predictive value of species sensitivity distributions for effects of herbicides in freshwater ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den P.J.; Blake, N.; Brock, T.C.M.; Maltby, L.

    2006-01-01

    In this article we present a review of the laboratory and field toxicity of herbicides to aquatic ecosystems. Single-species acute toxicity data and ( micro) mesocosm data were collated for nine herbicides. These data were used to investigate the importance of test species selection in constructing

  16. Predicting the consequences of species loss using size-structured biodiversity approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brose, Ulrich; Blanchard, Julia L.; Eklöf, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the consequences of species loss in complex ecological communities is one of the great challenges in current biodiversity research. For a long time, this topic has been addressed by traditional biodiversity experiments. Most of these approaches treat species as trait-free, taxonomic...... stability, and (iii) ecosystem functioning. Contrasting current expectations, size-structured approaches suggest that the loss of large species, that typically exploit most resource species, may lead to future food webs that are less interwoven and more structured by chains of interactions and compartments...... trait when analysing the consequences of biodiversity loss for natural ecosystems. Applying size-structured approaches provides an integrative ecological concept that enables a better understanding of each species' unique role across communities and the causes and consequences of biodiversity loss....

  17. Potential for adaptive evolution at species range margins: contrasting interactions between red coral populations and their environment in a changing ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledoux, Jean-Baptiste; Aurelle, Didier; Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Marschal, Christian; Féral, Jean-Pierre; Garrabou, Joaquim

    2015-03-01

    Studying population-by-environment interactions (PEIs) at species range margins offers the opportunity to characterize the responses of populations facing an extreme regime of selection, as expected due to global change. Nevertheless, the importance of these marginal populations as putative reservoirs of adaptive genetic variation has scarcely been considered in conservation biology. This is particularly true in marine ecosystems for which the deep refugia hypothesis proposes that disturbed shallow and marginal populations of a given species can be replenished by mesophotic ones. This hypothesis therefore assumes that identical PEIs exist between populations, neglecting the potential for adaptation at species range margins. Here, we combine reciprocal transplant and common garden experiments with population genetics analyses to decipher the PEIs in the red coral, Corallium rubrum. Our analyses reveal partially contrasting PEIs between shallow and mesophotic populations separated by approximately one hundred meters, suggesting that red coral populations may potentially be locally adapted to their environment. Based on the effective population size and connectivity analyses, we posit that genetic drift may be more important than gene flow in the adaptation of the red coral. We further investigate how adaptive divergence could impact population viability in the context of warming and demonstrate differential phenotypic buffering capacities against thermal stress. Our study questions the relevance of the deep refugia hypothesis and highlights the conservation value of marginal populations as a putative reservoir of adaptive genetic polymorphism.

  18. Movement Patterns, Home Range Size and Habitat Selection of an Endangered Resource Tracking Species, the Black-Throated Finch (Poephila cincta cincta).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rechetelo, Juliana; Grice, Anthony; Reside, April Elizabeth; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Moloney, James

    2016-01-01

    Understanding movement patterns and home range of species is paramount in ecology; it is particularly important for threatened taxa as it can provide valuable information for conservation management. To address this knowledge gap for a range-restricted endangered bird, we estimated home range size, daily movement patterns and habitat use of a granivorous subspecies in northeast Australia, the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta; BTF) using radio-tracking and re-sighting of colour banded birds. Little is known about basic aspects of its ecology including movement patterns and home range sizes. From 2011-2014 we colour-banded 102 BTF and radio-tracked 15 birds. We generated home ranges (calculated using kernel and Minimum Convex Polygons techniques of the 15 tracked BTF). More than 50% of the re-sightings occurred within 200 m of the banding site (n = 51 out of 93 events) and within 100 days of capture. Mean home-range estimates with kernel (50%, 95% probability) and Minimum Convex Polygons were 10.59 ha, 50.79 ha and 46.27 ha, respectively. Home range size differed between two capture sites but no seasonal differences were observed. BTF home ranges overlapped four habitat types among eight available. Habitat selection was different from random at Site 1 (χ2 = 373.41, df = 42, pmovements may be related to resource bottleneck periods. Daily movement patterns differed between sites, which is likely linked to the fact that the sites differ in the spatial distribution of resources. The work provides information about home range sizes and local movement of BTF that will be valuable for targeting effective management and conservation strategies for this endangered granivore.

  19. Pinworm diversity in free-ranging howler monkeys (Alouatta spp.) in Mexico: Morphological and molecular evidence for two new Trypanoxyuris species (Nematoda: Oxyuridae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solórzano-García, Brenda; Nadler, Steven A; Pérez-Ponce de León, Gerardo

    2016-10-01

    Two new species of Trypanoxyuris are described from the intestine of free-ranging howler monkeys in Mexico, Trypanoxyuris multilabiatus n. sp. from the mantled howler Alouatta palliata, and Trypanoxyuris pigrae n. sp. from the black howler Alouatta pigra. An integrative taxonomic approach is followed, where conspicuous morphological traits and phylogenetic trees based on DNA sequences are used to test the validity of the two new species. The mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 gene, and the nuclear ribosomal 18S and 28S rRNA genes were used for evolutionary analyses, with the concatenated dataset of all three genes used for maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. The two new species of pinworms from howler monkeys were morphologically distinct and formed reciprocally monophyletic lineages in molecular phylogenetic trees. The three species from howler monkeys, T. multilabiatus n. sp., T. pigrae n. sp., and Trypanoxyuris minutus, formed a monophyletic group with high bootstrap and posterior probability support values. Phylogenetic patterns inferred from sequence data support the hypothesis of a close evolutionary association between these primate hosts and their pinworm parasites. The results suggest that the diversity of pinworm parasites from Neotropical primates might be underestimated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Specific IgE to fish extracts does not predict allergy to specific species within an adult fish allergic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulkes, Karlijn Jg; Klemans, Rob Jb; Knigge, Lidy; de Bruin-Weller, Marjolein; Bruijnzeel-Koomen, Carla Afm; Marknell deWitt, Asa; Lidholm, Jonas; Knulst, André C

    2014-01-01

    Fish is an important cause of food allergy. Studies on fish allergy are scarce and in most cases limited to serological evaluation. Our objective was to study patterns of self-reported allergy and tolerance to different commonly consumed fish species and its correlation to IgE sensitization to the same species. Thirty-eight adult fish allergic patients completed a questionnaire regarding atopy, age of onset and symptoms to 13 commonly consumed fish species in the Netherlands (pangasius, cod, herring, eel, hake, pollock, mackerel, tilapia, salmon, sardine, tuna, plaice and swordfish). Specific IgE to these fish extracts were analyzed by ImmunoCAP. Median age of onset of fish allergy was 8.5 years. Severe reactions were reported by the majority of patients (n = 20 (53%) respiratory and of these 20 patients, 6 also had cardiovascular symptoms). After diagnosis, 66% of the patients had eliminated all fish from their diet. Allergy to all species ever tried was reported by 59%. In relation to species ever tried, cod (84%) and herring (79%) were the most frequently reported culprit species while hake (57%) and swordfish (55%) were the least frequent. A positive sIgE (value ≥ 0.35 kUA/L) to the culprit species ranged between 50% (swordfish) and 100% (hake). In tolerant patients, a negative sIgE (value allergy or tolerance was 82% and 25%, respectively. Sensitization to cod parvalbumin (Gad c 1) was present in 77% of all patients. Serological cross-reactivity between fish species is frequent, but in a significant proportion of patients, clinical relevance appears to be limited to only certain species. A well-taken history or food challenge is required for discrimination between allergy to the different fish species.

  1. A Source Area Approach Demonstrates Moderate Predictive Ability but Pronounced Variability of Invasive Species Traits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Günther Klonner

    Full Text Available The search for traits that make alien species invasive has mostly concentrated on comparing successful invaders and different comparison groups with respect to average trait values. By contrast, little attention has been paid to trait variability among invaders. Here, we combine an analysis of trait differences between invasive and non-invasive species with a comparison of multidimensional trait variability within these two species groups. We collected data on biological and distributional traits for 1402 species of the native, non-woody vascular plant flora of Austria. We then compared the subsets of species recorded and not recorded as invasive aliens anywhere in the world, respectively, first, with respect to the sampled traits using univariate and multiple regression models; and, second, with respect to their multidimensional trait diversity by calculating functional richness and dispersion metrics. Attributes related to competitiveness (strategy type, nitrogen indicator value, habitat use (agricultural and ruderal habitats, occurrence under the montane belt, and propagule pressure (frequency were most closely associated with invasiveness. However, even the best multiple model, including interactions, only explained a moderate fraction of the differences in invasive success. In addition, multidimensional variability in trait space was even larger among invasive than among non-invasive species. This pronounced variability suggests that invasive success has a considerable idiosyncratic component and is probably highly context specific. We conclude that basing risk assessment protocols on species trait profiles will probably face hardly reducible uncertainties.

  2. Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xujia; Zheng, Zhihai; Feng, Guolin

    2018-04-01

    The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16-18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10-11 days in January, April, and July and only 7-8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks.

  3. Ribosomal DNA sequence heterogeneity reflects intraspecies phylogenies and predicts genome structure in two contrasting yeast species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Claire; James, Stephen A; Davey, Robert P; Dicks, Jo; Roberts, Ian N

    2014-07-01

    The ribosomal RNA encapsulates a wealth of evolutionary information, including genetic variation that can be used to discriminate between organisms at a wide range of taxonomic levels. For example, the prokaryotic 16S rDNA sequence is very widely used both in phylogenetic studies and as a marker in metagenomic surveys and the internal transcribed spacer region, frequently used in plant phylogenetics, is now recognized as a fungal DNA barcode. However, this widespread use does not escape criticism, principally due to issues such as difficulties in classification of paralogous versus orthologous rDNA units and intragenomic variation, both of which may be significant barriers to accurate phylogenetic inference. We recently analyzed data sets from the Saccharomyces Genome Resequencing Project, characterizing rDNA sequence variation within multiple strains of the baker's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and its nearest wild relative Saccharomyces paradoxus in unprecedented detail. Notably, both species possess single locus rDNA systems. Here, we use these new variation datasets to assess whether a more detailed characterization of the rDNA locus can alleviate the second of these phylogenetic issues, sequence heterogeneity, while controlling for the first. We demonstrate that a strong phylogenetic signal exists within both datasets and illustrate how they can be used, with existing methodology, to estimate intraspecies phylogenies of yeast strains consistent with those derived from whole-genome approaches. We also describe the use of partial Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, a type of sequence variation found only in repetitive genomic regions, in identifying key evolutionary features such as genome hybridization events and show their consistency with whole-genome Structure analyses. We conclude that our approach can transform rDNA sequence heterogeneity from a problem to a useful source of evolutionary information, enabling the estimation of highly accurate phylogenies of

  4. Oligotyping reveals differences between gut-microbiomes of free-ranging sympatric Namibian carnivores (Acinonyx jubatus, Canis mesomelas on a bacterial species-like level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian eMenke

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent gut microbiome studies in model organisms emphasize the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the variation of the bacterial composition and its impact on the overall health status of the host. Species occurring in the same habitat might share a similar microbiome, especially if they overlap in ecological and behavioral traits. So far, the natural variation in microbiomes of free-ranging wildlife species has not been thoroughly investigated. The few existing studies exploring microbiomes through 16S rRNA gene reads clustered sequencing reads into operational taxonomic units (OTUs based on a similarity threshold (e.g. 97%. This approach, in combination with the low resolution of target databases, generally limits the level of taxonomic assignments to the genus level. However, distinguishing natural variation of microbiomes in healthy individuals from abnormal microbial compositions that affect host health requires knowledge of the normal microbial flora at a high taxonomic resolution. This gap can now be addressed using the recently published oligotyping approach, which can resolve closely related organisms into distinct oligotypes by utilizing subtle nucleotide variation. Here, we used Illumina MiSeq to sequence amplicons generated from the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene to investigate the gut microbiome of two free-ranging sympatric Namibian carnivore species, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus and the black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas. Bacterial phyla with proportions > 0.2 % were identical for both species and included Firmicutes, Fusobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria. At a finer taxonomic resolution, black-backed jackals exhibited 69 bacterial taxa with proportions ≥ 0.1 %, whereas cheetahs had only 42. Finally, oligotyping revealed that shared bacterial taxa consisted of distinct oligotype profiles. Thus, in contrast to 3 % OTUs, oligotyping can detect fine-scale taxonomic differences between

  5. Oligotyping reveals differences between gut microbiomes of free-ranging sympatric Namibian carnivores (Acinonyx jubatus, Canis mesomelas) on a bacterial species-like level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menke, Sebastian; Wasimuddin; Meier, Matthias; Melzheimer, Jörg; Mfune, John K E; Heinrich, Sonja; Thalwitzer, Susanne; Wachter, Bettina; Sommer, Simone

    2014-01-01

    Recent gut microbiome studies in model organisms emphasize the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the variation of the bacterial composition and its impact on the overall health status of the host. Species occurring in the same habitat might share a similar microbiome, especially if they overlap in ecological and behavioral traits. So far, the natural variation in microbiomes of free-ranging wildlife species has not been thoroughly investigated. The few existing studies exploring microbiomes through 16S rRNA gene reads clustered sequencing reads into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) based on a similarity threshold (e.g., 97%). This approach, in combination with the low resolution of target databases, generally limits the level of taxonomic assignments to the genus level. However, distinguishing natural variation of microbiomes in healthy individuals from "abnormal" microbial compositions that affect host health requires knowledge of the "normal" microbial flora at a high taxonomic resolution. This gap can now be addressed using the recently published oligotyping approach, which can resolve closely related organisms into distinct oligotypes by utilizing subtle nucleotide variation. Here, we used Illumina MiSeq to sequence amplicons generated from the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene to investigate the gut microbiome of two free-ranging sympatric Namibian carnivore species, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and the black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas). Bacterial phyla with proportions >0.2% were identical for both species and included Firmicutes, Fusobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria. At a finer taxonomic resolution, black-backed jackals exhibited 69 bacterial taxa with proportions ≥0.1%, whereas cheetahs had only 42. Finally, oligotyping revealed that shared bacterial taxa consisted of distinct oligotype profiles. Thus, in contrast to 3% OTUs, oligotyping can detect fine-scale taxonomic differences between microbiomes.

  6. Floral scent composition predicts bee pollination system in five butterfly bush (Buddleja, Scrophulariaceae) species.

    OpenAIRE

    Gong, W-C; Chen, G; Vereecken, Nicolas; Dunn, B L; Ma, Y-P; Sun, W-B

    2014-01-01

    Traditionally, plant-pollinator interactions have been interpreted as pollination syndrome. However, the validity of pollination syndrome has been widely doubted in modern studies of pollination ecology. The pollination ecology of five Asian Buddleja species, B. asiatica, B. crispa, B. forrestii, B. macrostachya and B. myriantha, in the Sino-Himalayan region in Asia, flowering in different local seasons, with scented inflorescences were investigated during 2011 and 2012. These five species ex...

  7. Net root growth and nutrient acquisition in response to predicted climate change in two contrasting heathland species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndal, M.F.; Merrild, M.P.; Michelsen, A.

    2013-01-01

    Accurate predictions of nutrient acquisition by plant roots and mycorrhizas are critical in modelling plant responses to climate change.We conducted a field experiment with the aim to investigate root nutrient uptake in a future climate and studied root production by ingrowth cores, mycorrhizal...... to elevated CO2. The species-specific response to the treatments suggests different sensitivity to global change factors, which could result in changed plant competitive interactions and belowground nutrient pool sizes in response to future climate change....

  8. Phylogenetic prediction of Alternaria leaf blight resistance in wild and cultivated species of carrots (Daucus, Apiaceae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant scientists make inferences and predictions from phylogenetic trees to solve scientific problems. Crop losses due to disease damage is an important problem that many plant breeders would like to solve, so the ability to predict traits like disease resistance from phylogenetic trees derived from...

  9. Moraea intermedia and M. vuvuzela (Iridaceae-Iridoideae, two new species from western South Africa, and some nomenclatural changes and range extensions in the genus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Goldblatt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe two new species in the largely sub-Saharan genus Moraea Mill. (± 205 spp. from its centre of diversity in the winter rainfall region of southern Africa. Moraea intermedia, from north-central Namaqualand near Springbok, is a member of the small section Tubiflorae (now eight species, remarkable in its growth habit with a long basal intemode. leaves clustered at the first aerial node, and Moraea-type stamens and style branches but subequal tepals with very short claws that clasp only the base of the filament column. Moraea vuvuzela. a member of series Galaxia of the Galaxia group of the genus (now 17 species, has deeply fringed stigma lobes, filaments free in the upper 1 mm, ± prostrate, lanceolate leaves and. remarkable for the series, dark brown to purple markings near the base of the tepal limbs. In the unusually variable M.fugax, currently with two subspecies, new collections of subsp. fugax co-occurring but on different soils with subsp.  filicaulis, cast doubt on their current treatment as members of the same species. We now favour recognition of the diminutive subsp.filicaulis as a separate species, M. filicaulis. In the M iripetala group we recommend recognition of the early blooming M. punctata, described in 1892 and later subsumed in M. iripetala but readily distinguished by the long inner  tepals broader in the midline and short, relatively broad, plane rather than channelled leaves. We also report small but significant range extensions for M. barkerae, M. macrocarpa and M. tricolor.

  10. Serum chemistry reference ranges for Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) pups from Alaska: stock differentiation and comparisons within a North Pacific sentinel species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lander, Michelle E; Fadely, Brian S; Gelatt, Thomas S; Rea, Lorrie D; Loughlin, Thomas R

    2013-12-01

    Blood chemistry and hematologic reference ranges are useful for population health assessment and establishing a baseline for future comparisons in the event of ecosystem changes due to natural or anthropogenic factors. The objectives of this study were to determine if there was any population spatial structure for blood variables of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), an established sentinel species, and to report reference ranges for appropriate populations using standardized analyses. In addition to comparing reference ranges between populations with contrasting abundance trends, data were examined for evidence of disease or nutritional stress. From 1998 to 2011, blood samples were collected from 1,231 pups captured on 37 rookeries across their Alaskan range. Reference ranges are reported separately for the western and eastern distinct population segments (DPS) of Steller sea lion after cluster analysis and discriminant function analysis (DFA) supported underlying stock structure. Variables with greater loading scores for the DFA (creatinine, total protein, calcium, albumin, cholesterol, and alkaline phosphatase) also were greater for sea lions from the endangered western DPS, supporting previous studies that indicated pup condition in the west was not compromised during the first month postpartum. Differences between population segments were likely a result of ecological, physiological, or age related differences.

  11. Consideration on thermodynamic data for predicting solubility and chemical species of elements in groundwater. Part 2: Np, Pu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Tetsuji

    2000-11-01

    The solubility determines the release of a radionuclide from waste form and is used as a source term in radionuclide migration analysis in performance assessment of radioactive waste repository. Complexations of the radionuclide by ligands in groundwater affect the interaction between radionuclides and geologic media, thus affect their migration behavior. It is essential to estimate the solubility and to predict the chemical species for the radionuclide based on thermodynamic data. The thermodynamic data of aqueous species and compounds were reviewed and compiled for Np and Pu. Thermodynamic data were reviewed with emphasis on the hydrolysis and carbonate complexation that can dominate the speciation in groundwater. Thermodynamic data for other species were selected based on existing databases. Thermodynamic data for other important elements are under investigation, thus shown in an appendix for temporary use. (author)

  12. Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

    2015-09-01

    Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

  13. Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

    2015-01-01

    Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

  14. Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday

    2009-01-01

    Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...

  15. Morphogenetic Effects of Resettlement of Mole Voles (Ellobius talpinus Pall., 1770) from the Southern Population to the Northern Boundary of the Species Range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasil'ev, A G; Bol'shakov, V N; Vasil'eva, I A; Evdokimov, N G; Sineva, N V

    2018-01-01

    Geometric morphometry has been used to reveal transformations of mandible morphogenesis in the offspring of mole voles resettled to the northern part of the species range from a southern population. The transformations were new compared to both the original (southern) and the aboriginal (northern) populations. A significant increase in the intragroup morphological disparity estimated by the mean nearest neighbor distance (MNND) in the resettled animals compared to both aboriginal populations is an indirect indication of an increased developmental instability in the resettled animals exposed to new climatic conditions.

  16. Intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8: A new spatially stabilized application in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romashkova, L.L.; Kossobokov, V.G.; Peresan, A.; Panza, G.F.

    2001-12-01

    A series of experiments, based on the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm M8, has been performed for the retrospective simulation of forward predictions in the Italian territory, with the aim to design an experimental routine for real-time predictions. These experiments evidenced two main difficulties for the application of M8 in Italy. The first one is due to the fact that regional catalogues are usually limited in space. The second one concerns certain arbitrariness and instability, with respect to the positioning of the circles of investigation. Here we design a new scheme for the application of the algorithm M8, which is less subjective and less sensitive to the position of the circles of investigation. To perform this test, we consider a recent revision of the Italian catalogue, named UCI2001, composed by CCI1996, NEIC and ALPOR data for the period 1900-1985, and updated with the NEIC reduces the spatial heterogeneity of the data at the boundaries of Italy. The new variant of the M8 algorithm application reduces the number of spurious alarms and increases the reliability of predictions. As a result, three out of four earthquakes with magnitude M max larger than 6.0 are predicted in the retrospective simulation of the forward prediction, during the period 1972-2001, with a space-time volume of alarms comparable to that obtained with the non-stabilized variant of the M8 algorithm in Italy. (author)

  17. Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 organism species. - Gclust Server | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available List Contact us Gclust Server Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 organis...m species. Data detail Data name Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 orga...nism species. DOI 10.18908/lsdba.nbdc00464-001 Description of data contents Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins...Database Description Download License Update History of This Database Site Policy | Contact Us Amino acid sequences of predicted prot...eins and their annotation for 95 organism species. - Gclust Server | LSDB Archive ...

  18. Computational prediction of the Crc regulon identifies genus-wide and species-specific targets of catabolite repression control in Pseudomonas bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Gara Fergal

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Catabolite repression control (CRC is an important global control system in Pseudomonas that fine tunes metabolism in order optimise growth and metabolism in a range of different environments. The mechanism of CRC in Pseudomonas spp. centres on the binding of a protein, Crc, to an A-rich motif on the 5' end of an mRNA resulting in translational down-regulation of target genes. Despite the identification of several Crc targets in Pseudomonas spp. the Crc regulon has remained largely unexplored. Results In order to predict direct targets of Crc, we used a bioinformatics approach based on detection of A-rich motifs near the initiation of translation of all protein-encoding genes in twelve fully sequenced Pseudomonas genomes. As expected, our data predict that genes related to the utilisation of less preferred nutrients, such as some carbohydrates, nitrogen sources and aromatic carbon compounds are targets of Crc. A general trend in this analysis is that the regulation of transporters is conserved across species whereas regulation of specific enzymatic steps or transcriptional activators are often conserved only within a species. Interestingly, some nucleoid associated proteins (NAPs such as HU and IHF are predicted to be regulated by Crc. This finding indicates a possible role of Crc in indirect control over a subset of genes that depend on the DNA bending properties of NAPs for expression or repression. Finally, some virulence traits such as alginate and rhamnolipid production also appear to be regulated by Crc, which links nutritional status cues with the regulation of virulence traits. Conclusions Catabolite repression control regulates a broad spectrum of genes in Pseudomonas. Some targets are genus-wide and are typically related to central metabolism, whereas other targets are species-specific, or even unique to particular strains. Further study of these novel targets will enhance our understanding of how Pseudomonas

  19. Computational prediction of the Crc regulon identifies genus-wide and species-specific targets of catabolite repression control in Pseudomonas bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Patrick; Barret, Matthieu; O'Gara, Fergal; Morrissey, John P

    2010-11-25

    Catabolite repression control (CRC) is an important global control system in Pseudomonas that fine tunes metabolism in order optimise growth and metabolism in a range of different environments. The mechanism of CRC in Pseudomonas spp. centres on the binding of a protein, Crc, to an A-rich motif on the 5' end of an mRNA resulting in translational down-regulation of target genes. Despite the identification of several Crc targets in Pseudomonas spp. the Crc regulon has remained largely unexplored. In order to predict direct targets of Crc, we used a bioinformatics approach based on detection of A-rich motifs near the initiation of translation of all protein-encoding genes in twelve fully sequenced Pseudomonas genomes. As expected, our data predict that genes related to the utilisation of less preferred nutrients, such as some carbohydrates, nitrogen sources and aromatic carbon compounds are targets of Crc. A general trend in this analysis is that the regulation of transporters is conserved across species whereas regulation of specific enzymatic steps or transcriptional activators are often conserved only within a species. Interestingly, some nucleoid associated proteins (NAPs) such as HU and IHF are predicted to be regulated by Crc. This finding indicates a possible role of Crc in indirect control over a subset of genes that depend on the DNA bending properties of NAPs for expression or repression. Finally, some virulence traits such as alginate and rhamnolipid production also appear to be regulated by Crc, which links nutritional status cues with the regulation of virulence traits. Catabolite repression control regulates a broad spectrum of genes in Pseudomonas. Some targets are genus-wide and are typically related to central metabolism, whereas other targets are species-specific, or even unique to particular strains. Further study of these novel targets will enhance our understanding of how Pseudomonas bacteria integrate nutritional status cues with the regulation

  20. Computational prediction of the Crc regulon identifies genus-wide and species-specific targets of catabolite repression control in Pseudomonas bacteria

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Browne, Patrick

    2010-11-25

    Abstract Background Catabolite repression control (CRC) is an important global control system in Pseudomonas that fine tunes metabolism in order optimise growth and metabolism in a range of different environments. The mechanism of CRC in Pseudomonas spp. centres on the binding of a protein, Crc, to an A-rich motif on the 5\\' end of an mRNA resulting in translational down-regulation of target genes. Despite the identification of several Crc targets in Pseudomonas spp. the Crc regulon has remained largely unexplored. Results In order to predict direct targets of Crc, we used a bioinformatics approach based on detection of A-rich motifs near the initiation of translation of all protein-encoding genes in twelve fully sequenced Pseudomonas genomes. As expected, our data predict that genes related to the utilisation of less preferred nutrients, such as some carbohydrates, nitrogen sources and aromatic carbon compounds are targets of Crc. A general trend in this analysis is that the regulation of transporters is conserved across species whereas regulation of specific enzymatic steps or transcriptional activators are often conserved only within a species. Interestingly, some nucleoid associated proteins (NAPs) such as HU and IHF are predicted to be regulated by Crc. This finding indicates a possible role of Crc in indirect control over a subset of genes that depend on the DNA bending properties of NAPs for expression or repression. Finally, some virulence traits such as alginate and rhamnolipid production also appear to be regulated by Crc, which links nutritional status cues with the regulation of virulence traits. Conclusions Catabolite repression control regulates a broad spectrum of genes in Pseudomonas. Some targets are genus-wide and are typically related to central metabolism, whereas other targets are species-specific, or even unique to particular strains. Further study of these novel targets will enhance our understanding of how Pseudomonas bacteria integrate

  1. Comparative transcriptome analyses of three medicinal Forsythia species and prediction of candidate genes involved in secondary metabolisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Luchao; Rai, Amit; Rai, Megha; Nakamura, Michimi; Kawano, Noriaki; Yoshimatsu, Kayo; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Kawahara, Nobuo; Saito, Kazuki; Yamazaki, Mami

    2018-05-07

    The three Forsythia species, F. suspensa, F. viridissima and F. koreana, have been used as herbal medicines in China, Japan and Korea for centuries and they are known to be rich sources of numerous pharmaceutical metabolites, forsythin, forsythoside A, arctigenin, rutin and other phenolic compounds. In this study, de novo transcriptome sequencing and assembly was performed on these species. Using leaf and flower tissues of F. suspensa, F. viridissima and F. koreana, 1.28-2.45-Gbp sequences of Illumina based pair-end reads were obtained and assembled into 81,913, 88,491 and 69,458 unigenes, respectively. Classification of the annotated unigenes in gene ontology terms and KEGG pathways was used to compare the transcriptome of three Forsythia species. The expression analysis of orthologous genes across all three species showed the expression in leaf tissues being highly correlated. The candidate genes presumably involved in the biosynthetic pathway of lignans and phenylethanoid glycosides were screened as co-expressed genes. They express highly in the leaves of F. viridissima and F. koreana. Furthermore, the three unigenes annotated as acyltransferase were predicted to be associated with the biosynthesis of acteoside and forsythoside A from the expression pattern and phylogenetic analysis. This study is the first report on comparative transcriptome analyses of medicinally important Forsythia genus and will serve as an important resource to facilitate further studies on biosynthesis and regulation of therapeutic compounds in Forsythia species.

  2. Improving N-terminal protein annotation of Plasmodium species based on signal peptide prediction of orthologous proteins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neto Armando

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Signal peptide is one of the most important motifs involved in protein trafficking and it ultimately influences protein function. Considering the expected functional conservation among orthologs it was hypothesized that divergence in signal peptides within orthologous groups is mainly due to N-terminal protein sequence misannotation. Thus, discrepancies in signal peptide prediction of orthologous proteins were used to identify misannotated proteins in five Plasmodium species. Methods Signal peptide (SignalP and orthology (OrthoMCL were combined in an innovative strategy to identify orthologous groups showing discrepancies in signal peptide prediction among their protein members (Mixed groups. In a comparative analysis, multiple alignments for each of these groups and gene models were visually inspected in search of misannotated proteins and, whenever possible, alternative gene models were proposed. Thresholds for signal peptide prediction parameters were also modified to reduce their impact as a possible source of discrepancy among orthologs. Validation of new gene models was based on RT-PCR (few examples or on experimental evidence already published (ApiLoc. Results The rate of misannotated proteins was significantly higher in Mixed groups than in Positive or Negative groups, corroborating the proposed hypothesis. A total of 478 proteins were reannotated and change of signal peptide prediction from negative to positive was the most common. Reannotations triggered the conversion of almost 50% of all Mixed groups, which were further reduced by optimization of signal peptide prediction parameters. Conclusions The methodological novelty proposed here combining orthology and signal peptide prediction proved to be an effective strategy for the identification of proteins showing wrongly N-terminal annotated sequences, and it might have an important impact in the available data for genome-wide searching of potential vaccine and drug

  3. HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

    2015-01-01

    HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  4. Remotely sensed hydrological isolation : a key factor predicting plant species distribution in fens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, M.E.

    1999-01-01

    In fens the species composition, vegetation structure and succession rate are determined by vegetation management and water chemistry, particularly by the base status and nutrient status. Base-rich and nutrient-rich surface water causes fens to become eutrophied, which leads to an increased

  5. Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

  6. Diameter distribution in a Brazilian tropical dry forest domain: predictions for the stand and species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Robson B DE; Bufalino, Lina; Alves, Francisco T; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

    2017-01-01

    Currently, there is a lack of studies on the correct utilization of continuous distributions for dry tropical forests. Therefore, this work aims to investigate the diameter structure of a brazilian tropical dry forest and to select suitable continuous distributions by means of statistic tools for the stand and the main species. Two subsets were randomly selected from 40 plots. Diameter at base height was obtained. The following functions were tested: log-normal; gamma; Weibull 2P and Burr. The best fits were selected by Akaike's information validation criterion. Overall, the diameter distribution of the dry tropical forest was better described by negative exponential curves and positive skewness. The forest studied showed diameter distributions with decreasing probability for larger trees. This behavior was observed for both the main species and the stand. The generalization of the function fitted for the main species show that the development of individual models is needed. The Burr function showed good flexibility to describe the diameter structure of the stand and the behavior of Mimosa ophthalmocentra and Bauhinia cheilantha species. For Poincianella bracteosa, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodum urundeuva better fitting was obtained with the log-normal function.

  7. Prediction of Prosopis species invasion in Kenya using geographical information system techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muturi, G.M.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Kimani, J.N.

    2010-01-01

    Tree species from Prosopis genus were widely planted for rehabilitation of degraded drylands of Kenya. However, they have invaded riverine ecosystems where they cause negative socio-economic and ecological impacts. GIS was used to estimate the reverine area threatened by Prosopis invasion in Kenya.

  8. Predicting species-specific responses of fungi to climatic variation using historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, Jeffrey M; James, Timothy Y; McMunn, Marshall; Ibáñez, Inés

    2013-10-01

    Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn-fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life-history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Predicting Species Distributions Using Record Centre Data: Multi-Scale Modelling of Habitat Suitability for Bat Roosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellamy, Chloe; Altringham, John

    2015-01-01

    Conservation increasingly operates at the landscape scale. For this to be effective, we need landscape scale information on species distributions and the environmental factors that underpin them. Species records are becoming increasingly available via data centres and online portals, but they are often patchy and biased. We demonstrate how such data can yield useful habitat suitability models, using bat roost records as an example. We analysed the effects of environmental variables at eight spatial scales (500 m - 6 km) on roost selection by eight bat species (Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctula, Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii, M. nattereri, M. daubentonii, and Plecotus auritus) using the presence-only modelling software MaxEnt. Modelling was carried out on a selection of 418 data centre roost records from the Lake District National Park, UK. Target group pseudoabsences were selected to reduce the impact of sampling bias. Multi-scale models, combining variables measured at their best performing spatial scales, were used to predict roosting habitat suitability, yielding models with useful predictive abilities. Small areas of deciduous woodland consistently increased roosting habitat suitability, but other habitat associations varied between species and scales. Pipistrellus were positively related to built environments at small scales, and depended on large-scale woodland availability. The other, more specialist, species were highly sensitive to human-altered landscapes, avoiding even small rural towns. The strength of many relationships at large scales suggests that bats are sensitive to habitat modifications far from the roost itself. The fine resolution, large extent maps will aid targeted decision-making by conservationists and planners. We have made available an ArcGIS toolbox that automates the production of multi-scale variables, to facilitate the application of our methods to other taxa and locations. Habitat suitability modelling has the

  10. Improved Models and Tools for Prediction of Radiation Effects on Space Electronics in Wide Temperature Range, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — All NASA exploration systems operate in the extreme environments of space and require reliable electronics capable of handling a wide temperature range (-180ºC to...

  11. Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along th